As predicted, the first two banks stumbled.
Revenues were down at Scotia and BeeMO, with the blue guys taking the biggest drubbing. At the same time both are putting aside far more for potentially rotten loans. For example, BMO’s bad-debt fund is soaring from $50 million to more than a billion.
(Context: our banks are money machines. Profits are immense. Both hiked their dividends today. No Canadian bank will topple, falter, wobble or wiggle. Chill. But they are harbingers.)
Loan loss provisions swell when bankers foresee issues coming down the pike. They’re not alone. Days ago the Bank of Canada’s Financial System Review raised the alarm about homeowners vastly over-extended. This, it said, is “a major risk to the economy.” If a recession hits, many citizens will be quickly insolvent.
Now CMHC is pushing the same alarm button. Canadian households are the most indebted in the G7. Even the Italians (who we all know have zero discipline) and the French (who love wine and rioting) are doing way better than us. Hell, Americans have been busy paying down debt and building retirement assets while we beavs have been doing the opposite.
We owe more than the girth of the entire economy and – this is the main news – 75% of that steaming pile of indebtedness is mortgages. Add in $200 billion in HELOCs, and it’s closer to 80%. Housing, in short, is killing Canada.
The sum of all fears – at the banks (who are preparing now), at the housing agency and at the Bank of Canada – is a recession later in 2023. The wheels have not come off yet thanks to the lowest unemployment rate in decades. But if a downturn arrives, this is the warning from CMHC’s chief executive Romy Bowers…
Debt comes with significant risks. The burden of servicing debt does not go away when people lose their jobs; the burden continues until the debt is paid off. This is a key problem when there are widespread job losses in the economy because of the global economic downturn and because of people’s inability to pay off their debts when they have no income. And when many households in an economy are heavily indebted, the situation can quickly deteriorate, such as what was witnessed in the U.S. in 2007 and 2008.
The stark reality is that debt is still increasing. In fact, it’s romping ahead. House prices have come down a little but mortgage rates went up a lot. Real estate is actually more unaffordable now, after the correction, than it was before. Every day thousands of people renew their home loans and have to shoulder much higher payments. Meanwhile millions with variable-rate mortgages have payments which are less than the monthly interest being accrued. The shortfall is being added to their debt – and will result in a potential payment shock when their term is up.
“We see early warning signs that more and more consumers are getting into financial difficulties,” CHMC’s report says. “It becomes difficult, if not impossible, for many mortgage holders to service their debt.”
And then there’s this: while people in other industrialized countries are saving and investing more and borrowing less, we continue to create a housing economy. Financing more than a trillion to sell each other houses and support over a hundred thousand commissioned salespeople doesn’t do much for the nation.
Bowers nails it with this statement: “The cost of servicing and repaying that debt slows economic growth over time. This outcome is more likely when this debt is incurred to finance house purchases that do not meaningfully improve the economy’s potential. In the U.S., households’ focus on repaying debts likely contributed to subdued U.S. economic growth over the last decade.”
Now, let us hang our heads and utter words of penance as we contemplate The Chart. Ouch.
So against this backdrop of excess, the ticking timebomb of a recession and unsustainable household balance sheets, wassup?
A housing boom, apparently. As this pathetic blog has been detailing, sales and prices are escalating in all major markets. Not only are mortgage originations rising again, but there is a gush of cash coming out of paid-for Boomer houses and into the hands of Mill and GenZ spawn for down payments. Yes, new debt, supporting an historic intergenerational transfer of wealth. A CIBC poll found a third of new buyers get parental cash. The average is $82,000. In Toronto or Van, you can probably triple that.
And what kind of world are we borrowing into, as we gamble that our future selves will be able to stay solvent?
An America days away from not paying its bills. F16s going into the worst European war since 1945. Xi and Putin getting cozy. Trump coming back. The most aggressive CB tightening cycle in memory. Inflation. Political polarization. And Canada’s Parliament obsessed with shadowy Chinese election diddling while an entire generation sits on the edge of revolt and debt metastasizes the nation.
But, hey, the bank divvies are sweet. And a house is the goal of life.
Did I ever mention this may not end well?
About the picture: “This is Barry,” writes Kevin, in Ladysmith. “If you want to use this pic of the best dog ever, that’s him, according to everyone who meets this guy.”
To be in touch or send a picture of your beast – [email protected].
161 comments ↓
Err I guess the bank stocks are “on sale” here? Haha? BMO fresh year’s lows. For the tummy rubbers + dividend increase.
——
On the Least Coast.
NS and NB. Excess mortality is off the charts. Our Rulers are mum on this after years of giving us the daily ‘health’ updates on the TeeVee.
https://novascotia.ca/finance/statistics/media/20230511-DCEM5.jpg
https://novascotia.ca/finance/statistics/media/20230511-DCEM4.jpg
—– —
Toronto is set to elect/appoint a Lifetime Leftee as mayor. You know what this means. War on SFH.
Density, re-zoning, bike lanes. The Left will splutter…but Sweeden. Okay, ask them how their winters are.
This city will be brought anew to lockdown: road tolls, congestion charges; 2 and 3-lane roads will be reduced to 1 lane + bike lane + transit lane.
Travel in or out of the city will become near impossible. You will be free to leave at any time Comrade, just try it.
Within the past year also my prefecture has become locked down with many one-way streets avec bike lanes, traffic bollards/signs blocking, streets narrowed by bike lanes. Cutting off normal travel. Hint hint 2020…our Rulers do not wish us travelling.
You touched on the HELOC debt amount and boy oh boy is that ever swelling.
Drive around the GTA and you will see more Porsches than Mazdas. Although this trend is not new to me, I still marvel every time I get into my Honda at the sheer amount of luxury vehicles on the road.
How do they pay for those?!
What’s with the change of tune? Up until mere days ago, you were touting the strength of our real estate market / economy. Funny how things change so quickly around here.
The housing market is what it is. As stated, escalating. So is debt. Learn to read, kiddo. – Garth
My Canadian Bank dividends just bought we a sweet carbon fiber Canyon Endurance bike.
I’ve always maintained there will be a recession. We need them because people in general, are stupid, selfish and greedy. They will keep taking until they can’t. What a recession does is bitch-slap many back into reality. The correction then becomes complete and we start the dance all over again.
I’m also okay with America defaulting. I don’t think it will be nearly as bad as most think because too many countries are prone to asking how high when America says jump. Trump is right, get it over with because it’s only gets worse.
Did I ever mention this may not end well?
Don’t you usually say that it won’t end well? Why equivocate now? Is there really a chance everything will be just peachy?
Expect Canadian banks to set aside more money for loan losses: Analyst
What? More unlealised losses, perhaps? lol!!!
“The wheels have not come off yet thanks to the lowest unemployment rate in decades. “- Garth
These jobs are mostly, underpaid, low level jobs. People are are doing 2 /3 of them just to pay the mortgage and immigrants who jump at anything .
If T2 can stop putting in policies that keep house prices increases and let natural market dictate prices….life would be normal.
Why can’t we a big correction…
People deserve to be able to buy a house….F’that it isn’t a right to own ur own house.
I pray for usa to default, or war escalation or OPEC to cut off oil. Anything to bring extreme pain to the west. Forcing a correction. From there a recovery and normal pricing
Well Garth I for one am not one of the rabid bubblonians that worship real estate values and relish getting into debt. Every time I look at real estate listings I am horrified and it is easy to feel unwelcome in the country I was born into especially when asked to relocate, visited by police or threatened by criminals. Do we need a nuclear war to end this madness?
But the bad loan provision was due to an acquisition down south. Atleast that’s what an analyst said. So it’s to be seen if the other banks report similar numbers to put this in context.
I’m disappointed in most Canadians since 2015 Election year and even more so since covid and all the nonsense that went on.
The future is looking gloomy for this country.
Canadians like to laugh at Americans but they should look in the mirror. Shameful.
It’s as if there’s ups and downs all the time as the pendulum swings. It might not end well, but it won’t be the end. The pendulum will swing back up once again.
It seems that Canada is the collectively stupidest country when it comes to housing and electing leaders like T2.
paying $2million and taking on lifetime of debt to live in crappy house in a horrid shithole like toronto is insanity.
It’s strange that, even with 2007-2008 as a perfect case study, the financial regulators in Canada didn’t put bigger clamps in place to restrain the current debt binge here.
Learn nothing from the past even when it’s right in your face. Sad.
“Even the Italians (who we all know have zero discipline)……Cue Dolce…
You reap what you sow. It was nice while it lasted.
Blog of the year! What great read Sir. BMO and ENB looking good.
I am basically debt free and pretty well off, but the thought of 2007-2008 U.S. housing crash is frightening to say the least and if that happens, do not expect a quick turn around, we dodged the bullet last time, but the trigger is tightening.
I’d bet an awful lot of that mortgage debt is concentrated in just a handful of Canadian CMA’s…
What a pressure cooker, and there’s more than just huge mortgages building steam.
Stay out of the blast zone.
“…Even the Italians (who we all know have zero discipline)” *
– Garth
——————-
* But apparently more than the Germans ** and oh ya, the rest of the G7.
And My Liege, who exactly is “WE”? You know, real or imagined?
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Put wet finger to butt and listen to the sizzle.
———
** And they put a 180 bps premium on Italian bonds vs. German bonds … so you know that’s all BS.
Ciao di Lack of Discipline Italia… nudge-nudge wink-wink.
You made my day Garth. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Let the bullets fly citizen of household champ debtor nation.
It happened slowly, then all at once.
if the banks have to put more money aside, does that mean tighter lending?
“there is a gush of cash coming out of paid-for Boomer houses and into the hands of Mill and GenZ spawn for down payments. Yes, new debt, supporting an historic intergenerational transfer of wealth. A CIBC poll found a third of new buyers get parental cash. The average is $82,000. In Toronto or Van, you can probably triple that.”
Exactly what I’ve been saying for some time now in the comments here and in real life conversations. The saying “the average person can’t afford the average house” ignores the fact the average person already owns the average house, and completely discounts the impact of familial wealth on the market. No money but Mom and dad have a $2M bung in TO? Meh, they’ll help you buy one off of someone just like them. Then when it’s their turn to cash out someone else will help their buyers. Round and round, and each transaction pays a rake to play at the table in the former of transfer taxes, fees, and commissions.
F16s going into the worst European war since 1945.
– Garth
That one has me worried to Garth. It’s an escalation.
Plenty of them nearby where I live. Who is to say …
————————-
Bad news for the banks (and my Maple ETF chock full of Cdn Bank stocks) but despite the credit losses I am still BUOYANT about Canada.
So far the Cdn Consumer continues to spend above average. When I see them stumble, then I will get worried but not before.
Royal Bank expects credit losses to normalize and growth in 2024.
In other words, we are/have experienced the worst of it.
Patience. Golden.
Bank of Nova Scotia is trading at a 6.5% dividend yield. Wonder why the market hates them so much.
And ITALIA is best place to retire it seems…..
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/retirement/article-retirement-length-countries-oecd/#comments
New plan folks: get job at either real estate or mortgage lender. Buy bank stocks. Lather rinse repeat til retirement. Clearly RE market is irrational but if the cheques don’t bounce….
About today’s title “The kill” and the photo today of an apparently poisoned dog –
While it is true that dogawful mutts are a pestilence on the planet and humanity, we need not be cruel in eradicating them as some might think is suggested in today’s blog graphics.
Contact a professional vet to gently euthanize your dog. Then get a cat.
Everything will be better.
I don’t have much of our FNW in Canadian equities. Almost all in $USD. I think $CAD will deteriorate further as Canada’s productivity deteriorates. IMHO T2s priorities are not inline to strengthen the $CAD, the opposite in my mind. ( Over spending on feel good , but ultimately non productive politically correct “investments “)
Realtors are cold-calling again.
Housing in Canada is still comparable or cheap compared to similar countries.
This is why I continue to rent and invest. There are far more pros than cons for renting right now.
I can’t imagine how stressed a lot of people must be if they bought a home in the last few years.
I guess those facilitating all this indebtedness, banks, realtors, gov’t are telling the folks everything will be JUST FINE!
So… what? Is this just advertising for another decade of blogs talking about the coming apocalypse that never seems to materialize?
When, exactly, do the chickens come home to roost or when the cows come home?
cant wait for Trump to next President again … just in time for stock market to go on next bull run … it is after all “the roaring twenties” lol
All about the divvies my man.
All about them divvies.
Nothing better to butter my bread with. Heck that stuff is bread. The best bread. Tax advantaged and obtained simply through ownership.
The tastiest of bread.
Mmmmm! Mmmmm! Good!
Powerful Post today. Looking at the financial literacy of most Canadians, this isn’t going to end well.
#2 Captain Uppa on 05.24.23 at 3:43 pm
You touched on the HELOC debt amount and boy oh boy is that ever swelling.
Drive around the GTA and you will see more Porsches than Mazdas. Although this trend is not new to me, I still marvel every time I get into my Honda at the sheer amount of luxury vehicles on the road.
How do they pay for those?!
*******
I have a neighbour down the road, who bought a house 3 years ago and has a brand new Toyota 4runner and Ford mustang sitting in his driveway as of a month ago. Another neighbour bought a brand new fully loaded RAM Truck and installed an in ground pool in his back yard.
Full and uninterrupted deleveraging is probably best news for Canada’s future and its young citizens.
Government will meddle in the political attempt to stave off the deleveraging cycle on their watch. It will be futile. They would just further expose Canadian banks to the risk and bring our entire financial system down the drain.
Once the full and complete deleveraging is done hopefully we will learn the lessons (there are many) and never again put all eggs in one basket(real estate).
Countrie’s economic and fiscal strength is lot more then selling overpriced shoe boxes in the sky at the ever increasing prices.
One more positive thing from full and complete deleveraging is that there is going to be far less smug people and way more reality.
I see hope on the horizon….
#2 Captain Uppa on 05.24.23 at 3:43 pm
Xxxxx
I was downtown this morning, first time in a while. There were more homeless people than Porsches. Sad face.
#36 DON “You touched on the HELOC debt amount and boy oh boy is that ever swelling.”
Every traffic stop you see ads offering 2nd, 3rd private HELOCS!!!
Dear Garth: Time for another poll for your readers. I am curious how many readers of your blog are representative of ‘average Canadians’ when queried for asset/liability levels. Thank you for years of great writing!
#8 Dave on 05.24.23 at 3:56 pm
I pray for usa to default, or war escalation or OPEC to cut off oil. Anything to bring extreme pain to the west. Forcing a correction. From there a recovery and normal pricing
===
Be careful what you wish for. If it goes your way, budget deficit swells, inflation soars, the purchasing power of the dollar takes a dive. Real estate owners are mostly protected, as they own something real.
While investors get trashed, the dollar value of their investments unchanged but the purchacing power decimated.
I saw a bumper sticker:
“Bitcoin has no inflation”.
Any of the Crypto fans here care to explain?
Thanks
Yup everything feels broken! People want to hold politicians to account. T 1 1/2 actually has the balls to mansplain to the Italians how to accept LGBTQ community. Cocky confidence that bit him in the ass as the Italian news show a photo of him in black face and say who is this baffon that’s trying to teach us anything? This is where Zero Disipline really really hits Home .!!
‘Barry’ looks very chill:) I’ve always wondered how pets can sleep in such twisted positions & not have any back issues – or at least, not exhibit the signs I would if I ever fell asleep in said position. Ow!
So let’s say the USA politicos decide to hold their ground despite the fiscal apocalypse that would trigger. As a result the Canadian economy enters a recession, markets have a collective cow & many households experience the loss of monthly cash flow due to job cuts. Would the government continue to lose its collective marbles & start handing out vast wads of public cash to ‘save’ the indebted from consequences? I’ve little doubt there would be much shrieking that the government ‘do something’ with the expectation cash would flow, but seriously. I didn’t work, save, pay off debt etc. so I could ‘help’ bail out my debt laden neighbors. That isn’t help, that is called enabling. Past time to put this debt addiction into rehab!
Nothing to worry about. They’ll kick that lead ingot down the road. Must be hard on the foot though. LOL
You said a whole generation is on the edge of revolting. I believe they’re already revolting, beginning with their leading deity Greta the truancy queen. They also have learned the art of grifting and holding their breath until they get their way. Oh, and forcefully canceling anyone who disagree’s with their twisted logic. This is the generation which will ultimately decide if we experience Logan’s Run in real time. Or maybe Hunger Games 2.0? I’m hoping for a Death Race 2000 scenario myself.
Barry does indeed look like a fine dog. Dogs only relax like that when they feel truly secure. The beer glass might be in jeopardy.
This is always the time I start getting excited about SA tipi camp:
Chilcotin grouse camp has been a family tradition for 42 years, starting initially with hunting lodges, then renting rooms at the various ranches, camping and RV-ing, before buying a plot of land several years ago. Missed 2017 due to wildfires, then set up in 2018 on charcoal-y ground. A permanent structure would’ve been toast.
Now, the big tipi and some wall tents go up every fall, we rent a few chill horses, set up all the comforts of camp, cut a bunch of wood, doublecheck the fences, install the croquet course, stock the bar, and settle in. The ladies mostly ride and hike, the men mostly hunt and fish and the dogs and kids split their time between either. Some folks just relax around camp. Plenty of poker for money- another hobby I enjoy but always end up underwater.
Special guests this year include our Slovakian friends and a few rarely-seen buddies from school.
Lithium batteries, LED lights, propane, cordless tools, solar panels, woodstoves and Starlink give all the comforts of home.
Best vacation ever. Mostly free, except for poker. Pretty much paradise.
#37 DON on 05.24.23 at 4:59 pm
#2 Captain Uppa on 05.24.23 at 3:43 pm
You touched on the HELOC debt amount and boy oh boy is that ever swelling.
Drive around the GTA and you will see more Porsches than Mazdas. Although this trend is not new to me, I still marvel every time I get into my Honda at the sheer amount of luxury vehicles on the road.
How do they pay for those?!
*******
I have a neighbour down the road, who bought a house 3 years ago and has a brand new Toyota 4runner and Ford mustang sitting in his driveway as of a month ago. Another neighbour bought a brand new fully loaded RAM Truck and installed an in ground pool in his back yard.
—————————
Yep.
I go for a daily walk in the hood, and most driveways are fully loaded, at any time of the day.
Though a couple of days ago, I saw a Tesla for sale.
And some houses are coming on the market.
I still drive my 2008 Honda Civic when I can afford a Mercedes but why the heck would I want to just to get from Point A to B? Other than routine maintenance and a busted power steering belt that little sucker has gotten us all over North America, from Alaska to NFLD, down to Florida and California without a mishap. Cheap on gas. Got it for a flat $20,000 CASH (with 75 kms on it) in June 2009 just when everyone was nervous about the financial meltdown, including the dealership. Dealer said “OK, I’ll do it only because you’re a local and you’ll come back for servicing.” Oh … oh really? That’s one way they make money at dealerships and I never went back. And besides at my age (70) it’s healthier to walk which we both do, daily and vigorously … with a rucksack to buy groceries. Yeah, thanks to RISING dividends from banks, an insurer,TC Pipeline, ENB, Fortis, Emera grocery stocks, CN Rail, BCE, Telus. No bonds, gold or crypto for this guy. Just dividend growth stocks and cash at 4.5%/4.9% US daily interest. Next move – sell GWO in our TFSAs after the next ex dividend date May 30th and buy BNS. GWO is at the high end of a range bound cycle. BNS at the low end with a higher yield. What’s not to like? Then total income from combined TFSAs will be $26,000 which just gets ploughed back into stocks. Anyone can do the same – start early and avoid debt! Be thrifty! Do you really need all that stuff?? Brush your teeth, exercise, avoid McDonalds. Simple advice. It works.
#48 Sailo
Lithium batteries, LED lights, propane, cordless tools, solar panels, woodstoves and Starlink give all the comforts of home.
—————————-
So why do you bother going camping?
And, make sure you take all your garbage with you, when you leave.
Here in Vancouver, people are hallucinating, Mr. Turner.
Rentals (if you can find one) – $2500, the minimum for a 600 sq. box. Debt? People are living on plastic…food prices are insane.
People are buying cars and huge trucks on 30-year loans; worse, many are variable rates! What the heck are they thinking?
They aren’t.
You said it, Mr. Turner – “pooched”.
Intergenerational Wealth Transfer? Which direction?
“Yes, new debt, supporting an historic intergenerational transfer of wealth. A CIBC poll found a third of new buyers get parental cash. The average is $82,000. In Toronto or Van, you can probably triple that.”
*********************************
Yes, and the direction of that wealth transfer is from the young (taking on huge debt) to the old who have $2 million dollar homes and can now finally earn easily 4% lending money to the young if they decide to cash in the house chips.
The amount of down payment help pales in comparison to $800k mortgages used mostly to buy houses from the wrinklies.
Think about it, $82k for the young person and this supports the value of million dollar houses for the wrinklies. It’s the old who are getting wealthier with this stuff. A few young people get $82k and EVERY old person sees their house value rise, do the math. Almost every existing house purchased has an old person cashing in way more than $82k capital gain on average.
Young people probably should be rioting in the streets over the bad deal they are getting.
@1 TurnerNation
The issue is that housing is going 3D but roads still stuck in the old XY plane.
Something needs to be done to help when (Z >> 1); I’ve written on here about needing to Gardernerize all roads to keep up (referring to the Gardner Expressway in Toronto, of course)
You are seeing society trying to cope with a simple math problem; expect to see more attempts.
Me? Love the car, and love nature; I’ve posted on here about the issue with cars, and will continue.
TN, I leave you to contemplate for a bit until my next “cars are the problem” posting. ;-)
Dearest Faron- I am very devastated and may not recover after reading your comment which states the following- You mean nothing to me. What about all the good times we’ve shared, bra? And Mike from north yoke, here is my rebuttal to your kind reply after my suggesting you have troll-like behavior patterns with a quote from a wise philosopher-
Ha ha haha ha, ha ha haha ha, hahahahahahahahaha
– Woody Woodpecker
The demand for real estate won’t be going anywhere. That’s because, despite the negativity portrayed in the news and on social media, people are busy living their lives trying to make due with whatever skills they have.
No one knows the future, but we do know how human nature works, and land/shelter will always be a sought after resource.
Even during the great recession, Canadian real estate barely flinched. It’s obvious why. Since the 80’s we have seen pensions and job security evaporate and average wages stagnate. Most people are either intimidated by or don’t understand/trust stocks. It’s also hard for the average person to stomach downturns. Real estate has therefore taken on the role of both investment and store of tangible, generational wealth. You have to live somewhere, and the alternative, renting, is increasingly expensive.
It was obvious January was the buying opportunity we all knew would come. There will be more, but they could be years and years away. You buy when you can afford to.
IDK
I am a broken record, our banks will be fine, but a hard landing is incoming for us dumb beavers. Too bad school never taught any financial literacy.
@#48 Sail Away
I did a Hyak river rafting trip from Chilco lake to the Fraser River over 5 days about 20 plus years ago.
Awesome trip.
Late August.
Skeeters weren’t too bad, salmon were running, Perseids meteor shower, northern lights.
Lots of bears, deer, big horn sheep.
Great trip, crazy rapids, slow floats, salmon jumping all around, no forest fires….the good old days.
Freeland will take care of it. Infinity Mortgages. What a joke this country has become.
#2 Captain Uppa on 05.24.23 at 3:43 pm
You touched on the HELOC debt amount and boy oh boy is that ever swelling.
Drive around the GTA and you will see more Porsches than Mazdas. Although this trend is not new to me, I still marvel every time I get into my Honda at the sheer amount of luxury vehicles on the road.
How do they pay for those?!
—————
I know a young immigrant dude living in the GTA. Works two jobs, has 4 roommates, and a brand spanking new Silverado. That truck is the centre of his life for all the wrong reasons. He likes sending pics of it back home…
I’d bet the majority of dogs here in steerage could drive around in a Lambo if they really, really wanted to. You’d just need to rearrange you life priorities in the same order as Silverado dude does.
….wait til people find out that their fake fiat currency and other assets are backed by…….NOTHING
Money is backed by the economy and the power of governments to tax, which is unbridled. Better than rocks. – Garth
I’m convinced that there will be a hard landing. For savers, or anybody with zero debt, in the black. They will inevitably be punished, and forced to bail out the ‘less fortunate’ people in debt.
Those with massive mortgage or credit card debt? They’ll grt bailed out. I reckon we’re well into the, “… it’s the bank’s problem” part of that how much you owe it analogy. As was affirmed here on Friday when you asked the question, no way in heck the government lets those with mortgages twist. We don’t want voters going homeless, and think of the children!
They’ll be fine, and Freeland or Trudeau will ride to their rescue. The rest of us? That small minority who are prudent, live below their means, avoid unproductive debt, and invest? They’re pooched. After all, the ‘haves’ without debt have a societal obligation to help the ‘have nots’ who are in debt.
#51 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.24.23 at 5:41 pm
#48 Sailo
Lithium batteries, LED lights, propane, cordless tools, solar panels, woodstoves and Starlink give all the comforts of home.
———
So why do you bother going camping?
And, make sure you take all your garbage with you, when you leave.
———
We just write your name on the garbage and huck it all in the river. Way easier.
#129 Sail Away on 05.24.23 at 12:54 pm
#110 Faron on 05.24.23 at 11:08 am
IEP dancing around being off another full dividend payment as of writing. Almost 25% capital loss since Sail Away’s purchase at $34.
Approaching Hindenburg’s fair value. Might be a buy here or very soon.
——–
That’s cool.
I would strongly suggest folks do their own due diligence before investing.
:-)
———
You meant gambling, right?
IEP down 13.39% for the day. Ouch! And about 30% down from the purchase price.
Yeah, I prefer investing.
#4 Daveyboy on 05.24.23 at 3:52 pm
My Canadian Bank dividends just bought we a sweet carbon fiber Canyon Endurance bike.
You gotta reinvest those dividends, man! They are the only bright side lately to bank stocks. Turn on your DRIP!!
Save up pay cheque cash, then buy a toy.
#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.24.23 at 6:02 pm
@#48 Sail Away
I did a Hyak river rafting trip from Chilco lake to the Fraser River over 5 days about 20 plus years ago.
Awesome trip.
Late August.
Skeeters weren’t too bad, salmon were running, Perseids meteor shower, northern lights.
Lots of bears, deer, big horn sheep.
Great trip, crazy rapids, slow floats, salmon jumping all around, no forest fires….the good old days.
———
Fantastic! Lots of grizz at Chilko Lake. Only a few by our place close to the Fraser-Chilcotin confluence, but plenty of black bears.
All those hot, dry, cactus- and grouse-filled canyonlands are our playground. No more salmon fishing these days, but some always seem to end up on the barbie. Mysterious.
The other day, the Jaguar mentioned something called early Canadian leg wrestling to settle a score. My question to the Cougar… I mean Jaguar lady? is- do you take off your cowboy boots and do it barefoot, or do you spice it up and wear your spurs? Boom-chicka-waaa waaaa…
Prob with IEP, is that it’s small float and massive dividend makes it a non-target for short sellers because the carry cost is quite high. No shorts… no short squeeze. Sorry, Garth, for copying in this lengthy text.
Bill Ackman, an investment professional, on IEP:
From titter.com/BillAckman
“I have been fascinated by the
@HindenburgRes
$IEP situation, and there are some interesting learnings here. For example, one learns from $IEP that a controlling shareholder of a company with a small float that pays a large dividend can cause his company to trade at a large premium to intrinsic value, best approximated in $IEP by its NAV per share. The premium to NAV creates liquidity for the controlling shareholder by enabling him to access margin loans secured by overvalued shares that can be used to fund investments.
The $IEP premium has been sustained by a large dividend yield, which is not supported by operating cash flows. The yield is generated by returning capital to outside shareholders, which is in turn funded by the company selling stock to investors.
This system has worked for a considerable period of time, but it is highly dependent on the maintenance of the premium and the placidity of Icahn’s margin lender(s). $IEP stock held by Icahn is not a liquid asset as it represents approximately 85%+ of $IEP shares outstanding. The shares also purportedly represent 85%+ of his net worth so he apparently does not have much outside resources to draw upon.
A sustained premium requires confidence in Icahn and $IEP. If Icahn were to sell any shares, the stock would likely drop precipitously as the overhang of additional sales and the further resulting loss in confidence would catalyze other shareholders to exit before the deluge.
The problem Icahn has is that his system has been outed by
@HindenburgRes
. Transparency is not the friend of $IEP having caused a more than 50% decline in the shares, which has caused Icahn to post more shares, now more than 65% of his holdings. Further declines over the last several days will likely require additional postings.
Even after the recent share price decline, $IEP still trades at a 50%+ premium to its NAV. Its performance history and governance structure do not justify a premium; rather they suggest that a large discount to NAV would be appropriate.
Icahn’s margin lender(s) must be extremely concerned with the situation, particularly in light of the recent involvement of the
@TheJusticeDept
, which will also likely be investigating the lenders’ involvement in the situation. There is likely more than one margin lender involved here because of the very large size of the loan and the risk limits that margin lenders have.
$IEP reminds me somewhat of Archegos where the swap counterparties were comforted by each having relatively smaller exposures to the situation. The problem is that multiple lenders make for a more chaotic situation. All it takes is for one lender to break ranks and liquidate shares or attempt to hedge, before the house comes falling down. Here, the patsy is the last lender to liquidate.
I am surprised that Icahn has not disclosed the terms of his margin loans including who provided them. My understanding of the
@SECGov
13D rules is that they require disclosure of sources of financing and even copies of financing agreements, although many investors ignore these requirements.
Icahn’s favorite Wall Street saying: “If you want a friend, get a dog.” Over his storied career, Icahn has made many enemies. I don’t know that he has any real friends. He could use one here.
We are neither long or short. Just watching from a distance.”
If houses drop say $300K, banks will forgive that much mortgage. Like happened in US during GFC.
Simple.
Game of credit chicken, that’s all it is.
And since consumers have no money, banks are the ones that will have to blink.
Money market ETFs are paying sweet and defensive for an uncertain correction along with a neutral weight position in equities.
Having dry powder and loads of patience is key to taking advantage of an opportunity if it presents itself.
Fortune telling never works, contrarians know the score, wait for it.
@#50 Barry
” Brush your teeth, exercise, avoid McDonalds. Simple advice. It works.”
+++
Ponzie swears by day old Coffee Crisp bars and expired Coke from the Dollar Store.
I’m torn…..
Most pension plans are based on you getting 70% of your income while retired on the basis that you have a place paid of by that time making up the loss of 30%.
Prices aren’t going down any time soon. At some point you just need to jump in and get started.
The banks have been making billions upon billions for years upon years. How cares about one quarter. The fact that amortizations are getting extended because some aren’t even paying the full interest on their fixed variable mortgages just means that banks will make more money on the mortgage.
What am I gonna do risk my hard earned money trying to make only 8% on the stock market? What about those RRSP’s won’t do much for you as you have to liquidate your savings.
Did you know with real estate you just keep getting more and more rent even after you die for your children and grandchildren?
Garth, have you scanned for Russian troll bots lately? I find it amazing the number of people who have nothing better to do every day but come here and complain about Canada. On the other hand maybe that helps explain why they are so miserable. A beautiful spring evening here in the GTA. Go for a walk.
“After all, the ‘haves’ without debt have a societal obligation to help the ‘have nots’ who are in debt.”
Are the have nots without debt unworthy of a few breaks or good luck?
Garth I have been reading your blog for years – even before you had a blog and I would find your articles in the Times Colonist.
People ie) economists and bankers – have been talking about this for years well over two decades.
The penny drops just now. This could have all been prevented. Glad we sold our house before COVID.
#65 Shirl Clarts on 05.24.23 at 6:40 pm
#4 Daveyboy on 05.24.23 at 3:52 pm
My Canadian Bank dividends just bought we a sweet carbon fiber Canyon Endurance bike.
You gotta reinvest those dividends, man! They are the only bright side lately to bank stocks. Turn on your DRIP!!
Save up pay cheque cash, then buy a toy.
——————–
He’s investing in his health.
Good for him.
#55 Really? Not! on 05.24.23 at 5:58 pm
===
You think I am a troll, but my original post didn’t even quote or mention you. You are the one who started looking for attention.
If you need a troll, just look in the mirror.
You can fill you next post with “hahaha”s entirely. Nothing you are typing makes sense anyway.
#20 Dolce Vita on 05.24.23 at 4:20 pm
“…Even the Italians (who we all know have zero discipline)” *
– Garth
——————-
* But apparently more than the Germans ** and oh ya, the rest of the G7.
And My Liege, who exactly is “WE”? You know, real or imagined?
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Put wet finger to butt and listen to the sizzle.
———
** And they put a 180 bps premium on Italian bonds vs. German bonds … so you know that’s all BS.
Ciao di Lack of Discipline Italia… nudge-nudge wink-wink.
You made my day Garth. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Let the bullets fly citizen of household champ debtor nation.
************
At least PM Meloni wasn’t taken in by T2…she gave him a WTF did you say look!
Narrative: we’re duped…
I was up at my families place when I was a kid. Big swath of land. I had access to a bee-bee gun so me and my younger bother headed out to the bush to see if we could shoot something. Rabbit was the goal. White, snowy rabbit.
It didn’t take long until we found one…up, along the path, sitting there, ready to be shot. My brother shot first and missed. Zero noise. Bunny didn’t move. I shot next and hit it in the head…the screaming was shocking. We freaked. Had to shut the rabbit up! It took 7 or 8 direct shots to the head before there was no more screaming
We ate it. The Kill confirmed.
Og
Are you still cruel? – Garth
Bank of Mom and Dad,
The Scotia Global Asset Management Investor Sentiment Survey, which interviewed 1,022 Canadians, found that 59 per cent of them are feeling negative about their investments, up from 33 per cent in the fall 2021 survey.
So people are worried about retirement and over half haven’t saved money – but are giving 100,000 to their kids. If you give to one you have to give to the other. I dont’ get this.
#62 Rook on 05.24.23 at 6:26 pm
The rest of us? That small minority who are prudent, live below their means, avoid unproductive debt, and invest? They’re pooched. After all, the ‘haves’ without debt have a societal obligation to help the ‘have nots’ who are in debt.
————-
There’s a growing case for a certain kind of lifestyle in Canada. Low income, simple living, lcol area, low taxes, low BS. Become part of the 40%. Make Ottawa work on your behalf, instead of the other way around.
Designing a life in this country where your housing and living costs are dwarfed by your net income – yet said income is still low enough to warrant the full embrace of Ottawa’s Maternal instincts – is possible.
You need to be cut from the right cloth, you need skills, tools, and knowledge. You need to drive your cost of living right through the floorboards. Turns out it’s not so hard if you’re up for a little adventure.
A little savings, a pile of work, and a well chosen area could have you mortgage free in no time while simultaneously packing 5 figures into the B+D every year with ease – and yet end up getting every handout and tax break T+F can dream up. Best of all, you can sleep easy when the shtf knowing you won’t be on the hit list to pay for it.
Never Short a Dull Market?
Or never dull a short market?
Nvidia up 25% afterhours, earnings.
———–
Life in Kanada?
Let’s bring back The Rules*. Three years was not enough.
(*Not found in any medical textbook)
https://www.psypost.org/2023/05/social-media-dependency-is-linked-to-a-reduced-preference-for-freedom-study-finds-163529
Social media dependency is associated with a reduced preference for freedom, according to new research published in Psychological Reports. The study suggests that people who are heavily dependent on social media may use it as a way to escape from the uncertainties and challenges of the real world.
Social media dependency refers to a condition in which individuals develop a strong reliance on social media platforms, leading to excessive and compulsive use that negatively impacts various aspects of their lives. It involves an intense need for constant engagement with social media, difficulty in controlling usage, and experiencing negative consequences due to excessive social media use.
———- —
Oh, our Global Rulers. What are they up to now that we have been trained on this.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12114155/Prepare-disease-deadlier-Covid-chief-warns.html
Prepare for a disease even deadlier than Covid, WHO chief warns
The WHO’s Dr Tedros said threat of another pandemic can’t be kicked down road
He unveiled new global scheme to spot and track the most dangerous pathogens
#56 I don’t know on 05.24.23 at 6:00 pm
The demand for real estate won’t be going anywhere. That’s because, despite the negativity portrayed in the news and on social media, people are busy living their lives trying to make due with whatever skills they have.
No one knows the future, but we do know how human nature works, and land/shelter will always be a sought after resource.
Even during the great recession, Canadian real estate barely flinched. It’s obvious why. Since the 80’s we have seen pensions and job security evaporate and average wages stagnate. Most people are either intimidated by or don’t understand/trust stocks. It’s also hard for the average person to stomach downturns. Real estate has therefore taken on the role of both investment and store of tangible, generational wealth. You have to live somewhere, and the alternative, renting, is increasingly expensive.
It was obvious January was the buying opportunity we all knew would come. There will be more, but they could be years and years away. You buy when you can afford to.
IDK
**********
The problem is…your logic is based on false assumptions that you validate as fact. Why did we escape the 2008 US housing disaster? You obviously were not around when we discussed that here.
Human nature chases fads and fads end.
Like I said your AI is the beta version not the VHS.
It is likely that Canadian bank stocks will drop at least another 30%. It appears the NVCC preferred shares issued by Canadian banks are getting riskier by the month. If these preferred shares get converted to equity, you can expect the bank stocks to drop another 25%. And what if Jagmeet Singh gives the banks another good kick in the face?
“A housing boom, apparently. ”
More like a dead cat bounce.
The future:
US debt ceiling will be raised.
Peace will be negotiated in Ukraine.
Stock market will climb the wall of worry and a new bull market will start.
Canadian house prices will eventually revert to 3.5x household yearly income.
#65 Shirl Clarts on 05.24.23 at 6:40 pm
#4 Daveyboy on 05.24.23 at 3:52 pm
My Canadian Bank dividends just bought we a sweet carbon fiber Canyon Endurance bike.
You gotta reinvest those dividends, man! They are the only bright side lately to bank stocks. Turn on your DRIP!!
Save up pay cheque cash, then buy a toy.
——————–
He’s investing in his health.
Good for him.
====
Turned 40 this year. Doing Ragbrai, in Iowa.It is a 500 mile, week long bike ride across the state. As for the dividends, I do reinvest them, but the wife and I have already saved over 100k usd this year, you need to have some fun too!
Dividend increases from both Scotia and BMO.
Woo hoo!!!!
Bigger mortgages = more dividend increases along the way!
From one persons pocket into another’s
Rook, yes, you and others in deep debt, not prudent will not be homeless but the government will own your homes and banks too not right away but over the next few years. The government is your best friend and he wants to help you out but like making the deal with the devil, your soul first man.
# 77- michael of North York always drags up here whenever anyone mentions anything to do with that senseless totally avoidable conflict imposed on Ukraine, the proxy, and Russia. And anyone who took the “wrong side” such as Orban. I mentioned Orban, and you were spurred into action with your take of the situation. Which was waaay out there, in my opinion. Then your brother from another mother faron put his 2 cents in. I couldn’t resist correcting you with humor and some good old fashioned mockery. How’re your Raytheon stocks doing, by the way? lol, NOT!
#86 Daveyboy on 05.24.23 at 8:05 pm
#65 Shirl Clarts on 05.24.23 at 6:40 pm
#4 Daveyboy on 05.24.23 at 3:52 pm
My Canadian Bank dividends just bought we a sweet carbon fiber Canyon Endurance bike.
You gotta reinvest those dividends, man! They are the only bright side lately to bank stocks. Turn on your DRIP!!
Save up pay cheque cash, then buy a toy.
——————–
He’s investing in his health.
Good for him.
====
Turned 40 this year. Doing Ragbrai, in Iowa.It is a 500 mile, week long bike ride across the state.
————–
Can you please take Sailo along.
But beware, he’s been known to cheat in competitions.
Can’t stand to lose.
Help me decipher this chart please:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/monetary-aggregates/
Why is everything going on a downward slope?
“ The stark reality is that debt is still increasing. In fact, it’s romping ahead.”
I’m your opinion, should Canadian banks take any responsibility for reckless lending. Or it’s it all the borrowers fault?
I know the idiot tax payer is on the hook when things go south but shouldn’t the banks act in a responsible fashion?
none of the warnings are new, they have been hanging around for at least a decade, and we all know what has happened to RE since then.
It is still a ponzi scheme, as long as majority Canadians still believe RE will never falls down, and jump in with FOMO, the game continues. no one sells, everyone buys, and young generation has no choice but have to buy as well, then boomer and gen X parent chip-in; everyone re-finances to the last penny, run negative cashflow as much as possible (not just for savings income tax, but for long term capital gain).
the game will eventually stops, just no one knows when. If it is another 20 years, you will be punished not to join the game now (like those who chose to wait a decade ago), but if it is another 12 months, jumping in now is like suicide.
It is sad, since RE is not like stocks/ETFs or any other financial asset which you don’t have to join if you don’t want. for RE, you have no choice. our short-sighted government basically has been helping to keep the game on by allowing/supporting make RE a financial asset and rescuing those who took the risks and suffer (most of them blindly), at the cost of a young generation who believes nothing but a house matters. It is also interested to see that this governance got the most votes from the yonge generation who has been suffer under it’s policy since they believe this government is helping with the affordability….
what a Country Canada is!
Too bad the youngins today don’t heed the warning of their great grandparents, “Never go into debt!” But that is so… mid 20th century! Alas, this will NOT end well.
And what if there is no traditional recession? The banks are not harmed, and the funds allocated to bad-debt can be un-allocated. Onward and upward!
You make more friends as the Harbinger of Doom …lol
I prefer today’s post than more recent gloss-over-nothing-to-see-here writings of recent weeks. It is better to pan back for big picture ‘forest thru the trees’ reporting I feel. It seems more honest with everything that’s happening.
Welcome back Garth.
Cold War 2 coming your way. DeSantis signs bills banning Chinese citizens from buying land in Florida.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/09/ron-desantis-bills-ban-chinese-citizens-buying-land-florida
Debt comes with significant risks. The burden of servicing debt does not go away when people lose their jobs; the burden continues until the debt is paid off. This is a key problem when there are widespread job losses in the economy because of the global economic downturn and because of people’s inability to pay off their debts when they have no income. And when many households in an economy are heavily indebted, the situation can quickly deteriorate, such as what was witnessed in the U.S. in 2007 and 2008.
——-
Captain Obvious reporting here. Does one need a PhD in Economics to come to this conclusion and the few others that he mentioned that were disseminated on this blog post. I think not. If a major recession occurs and jobs are lost, this is when people will not be able to meet payments and will have to sell. However, if immigration is 1million per year it is still not 100% clear that housing will become more affordable.
Really easy to identify the problem. Much harder to provide a recipe that renders housing affordability (purchases and rents) in line with income of the local
residents. For this, there seems to be no cure.
Bring on the housing crash. I want to see an 80’s rerun!!
#92 Neo on 05.24.23 at 8:31 pm
“ The stark reality is that debt is still increasing. In fact, it’s romping ahead.”
I’m your opinion, should Canadian banks take any responsibility for reckless lending. Or it’s it all the borrowers fault?
I know the idiot tax payer is on the hook when things go south but shouldn’t the banks act in a responsible fashion?
********
You mean can the taxpayer sue the banks for neglect or something else? Someone may try in the Ammeerrica.
@#66 sail away
“Only a few by our place close to the Fraser-Chilcotin confluence, but plenty of black bears.”
++++
That part of the Chilcotin river was crazy!
Just a roller coaster ride of huge sweeping turns and drops into boiling pools.
“Big John Canyon” I believe the guides called it.
And one area of the roller coaster river drop was dubbed “sushi surprise” because the Japanese tourists onboard the raft vomited all over everyone.
The next turn and drop in the river drenched us and all was forgiven.
After 10 minutes of crazy canyon we ended up in the Fraser….wide, slow, whirlpool filled Fraser.
Spent the last day floating down to the Gang Ranch I believe.
Something about dividend increases make me feel a little better about life.
DeSantis’ presidential campaign announcement on titter a total clusterfck. Total own-goal for 3 of the worst people on the planet. Made a very good day great.
6pm News.
Surrey ( Ponzies fave city) Memorial Hospital.
After two emergency patients were stabbed repeatedly in the ER waiting room last week…
Doctors are now speaking out.
The hospital is failing its patients.
Wait times for ER patients are anywhere from 48 to 72 hours.
Doctors have been warned by the Fraser Health Authority ( the govt appointed bureaucrats “running” Health Care in the Lower Mainland) that they shouldn’t put their concerns in writing.
The Health Minister sputtered in apoplectic disbelief when asked if Doctors are being “silenced”.
Fraser Health refused comment……
Thanks for the succinct post this evening Garth.
Why actually print the money when a government can just create policy enabling its own populace to trade houses back and forth for ever increasing sums of money, basically printing it for you. The foundation for a solid economy, right there. Imagine if we didn’t have our own semi-flammable mud and sticks to sell abroad? I mean, we have a pretty lousy track record for converting innovation to $’s. But party on.
Indeed, indeed. This will probably not end very well.
Okay, so BMO’s bad-debt fund was 950 million more than projected and dividends go up?
#91 Gen-Zee on 05.24.23 at 8:27 pm
Help me decipher this chart please:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/monetary-aggregates/
Why is everything going on a downward slope?
**********************************
The chart shows growth rates and it does show M1 has declined somewhat. M2++ on your chart still has positive growth. The downward slope means the rate of growth is lower.
Money supply shrinks when people pay off debt faster than other people take on new debt. That ought to be happening now to some extent.
“…our banks are money machines. Profits are immense. Both hiked their dividends today. No Canadian bank will topple, falter, wobble or wiggle.”
——————————————-
I love it when you talk this way…….
@#98 Snuggie Bear
“Bring on the housing crash. I want to see an 80’s rerun!!”
+++
Its starting.
Bars and restaurant bankruptcies piling up.
Mortgage and HELOC greaterfools hanging on by their fingernails….
Businesses shutting down due to the Trifecta of lack of employees, govt red tape and rising rents/taxes/fees…
Trudeau and Freeland deserve to own every bit of this.
Ukraine. China. Russia.
Are just icing on the economic uncertainty “Cake”.
It feels like the summer of 1939.
The Christmas time economy should be interesting.
4 Daveyboy
“My Canadian Bank dividends just bought we a sweet
carbon fiber Canyon Endurance bike.”
—————————————————
Nice! Enjoy Iowa. Ride safe!
@#96 Nordman
“Cold War 2 coming your way. DeSantis signs bills banning Chinese citizens from buying land in Florida.”
+++
I cringe at the thought of what will happen if China invades Taiwan and the inevitable sinking of a US warship.
The Chinese communist party leadership won’t bat an eye over the death of 100’s of thousands of their own troops. For the glory of the motherland.
One ship sunk with several hundred ( or thousand) US sailors……
The American and western world will go berserk…..
As a dawg-gone mutt lover, I just have to let this out:
I am here for Felix.
#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.24.23 at 9:05 pm
That part of the Chilcotin river was crazy!
Just a roller coaster ride of huge sweeping turns and drops into boiling pools.
“Big John Canyon” I believe the guides called it.
And one area of the roller coaster river drop was dubbed “sushi surprise” because the Japanese tourists onboard the raft vomited all over everyone.
The next turn and drop in the river drenched us and all was forgiven.
After 10 minutes of crazy canyon we ended up in the Fraser….wide, slow, whirlpool filled Fraser.
Spent the last day floating down to the Gang Ranch I believe.
—————
Yep, it’s wild there. A few years back the Chilcotin overtopped and washed out the Wineglass’s irrigation system.
Anything after Farwell Canyon is the Gang on the right for a long way. There’s river access at the bridge which is a good distance but maybe other pullouts I don’t know.
“the bank divvies are sweet. ”
Indeed.
@#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.24.23 at 6:02 pm
@#48 Sail Away
I did a Hyak river rafting trip from Chilco lake to the Fraser River over 5 days about 20 plus years ago.
Awesome trip.
Late August.
Skeeters weren’t too bad, salmon were running, Perseids meteor shower, northern lights.
Lots of bears, deer, big horn sheep.
Great trip, crazy rapids, slow floats, salmon jumping all around, no forest fires….the good old days.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
just got back from a great rafting trip in Jasper.
Folks who live out in Albeerta got it good.
Beautiful part of Canada.
“Money is backed by the economy and the power of governments to tax, which is unbridled. Better than rocks.” – Garth
And yet that’s what they used, “rocks”, to back the currency before it became a fiat.
BARRY for dog of the year – who’s a good boy
CANADA…….we have a kid for PM and a NON finance Finance Minister – PLUS the average Canuck is like an addict in a casino ……..yeah this is going to be EPIC
He’s 51. – Garth
102 Faron on 05.24.23 at 9:12 pm
DeSantis’ presidential campaign announcement on titter a total clusterfck. Total own-goal for 3 of the worst people on the planet. Made a very good day great.
———————
It’s being called a “Desaster”.
And Musk has been utterly humiliated.
Let’s just call it Karma for firing most of the staff.
Nobody left to run the show.
Big drug bust…
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2023/05/24/bc-2020-drug-bust-charges/
Charges laid this week…. for a drug bust that occurred…. 2 YEARS ago.
But don’t worry.
They ALL made bail.
Poor Faron, compelled to spend hours researching IEP because SA took a position. You do realize you are being played with, right?
It’s 2023, surprising to see someone getting trolled like its 2005 and we are all learning to communicate in this new format.
I remember arguing online and then all of a sudden it was 2009 and it seemed ridiculous to be arguing with anon’s. God bless you for keeping a 2005 pace.
Apparently interest rates haven’t gone up quite enough
@#107 Ponzie Profitless Point
“And Musk has been utterly humiliated.”
+++
Musk could buy….and lose 10 Twitters…..and still be a Billionaire.
Elon is a salesman.
A very good salesman.
He sells himself….very very well…..
Desantis is a mere stepping stone in the endless self promotion that is Elon.
#114 Hmm on 05.24.23 at 10:41 pm
@#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.24.23 at 6:02 pm
@#48 Sail Away
I did a Hyak river rafting trip from Chilco lake to the Fraser River over 5 days about 20 plus years ago.
Awesome trip.
Late August.
Skeeters weren’t too bad, salmon were running, Perseids meteor shower, northern lights.
Lots of bears, deer, big horn sheep.
Great trip, crazy rapids, slow floats, salmon jumping all around, no forest fires….the good old days.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
just got back from a great rafting trip in Jasper.
Folks who live out in Albeerta got it good.
Beautiful part of Canada.
——————
Just back from Banff and Lake Louise.
All that smoke from Northern Alberta.
Not so good.
He’s 51. – Garth
51 in numbers – 25 in maturity
This kind of ad hominem shot turns people away from partisanship politics. You are not serving your cause. – Garth
#89 Really? Not! on 05.24.23 at 8:15 pm
===
I agree that the war in Ukraine is senseless and should have been avoided. So, tell Putin to pull his troops out, and the war will stop.
When someone like yourself is trying to blame the victim – Ukraine, and excuse the invador – Putin, that warrants a rebuttal.
Watch your Raytheon stocks by yourself. I don’t own any and have no reason to follow them.
#109 Dr. V on 05.24.23 at 10:11 pm
4 Daveyboy
“My Canadian Bank dividends just bought we a sweet
carbon fiber Canyon Endurance bike.”
—————————————————
Nice! Enjoy Iowa. Ride safe!
—
Seconded. That ride sounds like a very cool experience.
#120 Mattl on 05.24.23 at 11:27 pm
compelled to spend hours
—
Hours?
Don’t know about you, but I breezed through Ackman’s tweet in a couple minutes. Learned about the Hindenburg report from investing professionals I read content from.
I do enjoy the continuous reveal of SAGIs and the reversion to the mean that stock pickers suffer and try to hide because they have egos like the caramelized sugar on a creme brulee.
RIP Tina Turner. You were “Simply The Best” .
Yup, time is nigh to start incrementally snarfing banks. Regardless of the hollow socialist scream in the background, banks are always the smartest guys in the room. When they go on sale….you ring the bell. Ding Dong !!
And now that Mr Johnston’s verdict on the Trudeau China corruption scandal has exonerated the leader…..WOW…..just WOW !
Remember, no more rate hikes, or we just heard it wrong and it is really: no, more rate hikes.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/05/24/inflation-dishes-out-another-nasty-surprise-all-heck-breaks-loose-in-uk-services-cpi-core-cpi-with-scary-monthly-spikes-multi-d
Instead of money going into larger families and higher quality of life foe existing ones, it has gone towards enriching RE agents and banks.
They can rot in hell.
Real estate decline, WFH and the decay of inner cities.
Two offices buildings 30 Cedar street Sudbury, and 40 King street Oshawa.
Both for sale by lenders, at about 1/3 of the cost to build. Conversion to residential makes no sense without significant municipal concessions.
Look at San Från, Portland, NYC , Chicago etc. all coming to a city near you. Careful what you wish for.
“Never go into debt!” But that is so… mid 20th century!
I agree! Never the less it is still good advice. Then again the excesses of the 1920s and the great depression were still known and remembered by many people at the time.
You can’t get away with much borrowing on limited incomes if you borrow at all. There are limits to most things. People have forgotten those lessons and limits and it will come back to bite them. May be sooner than they think.
“Meanwhile millions with variable-rate mortgages have payments which are less than the monthly interest being accrued. ”
Millions? Really, this is correct? Crazy!
He’s 51. – Garth
You know something Garth, Justin Trudeau still looks like a 20 something to a lot of us. Never the less the man still has a lot to learn before trying to run anything larger than his own family or even his own life. Like what work is , running a business for a profit, right and wrong, not running deficits, telling the truth, when to act and when to do nothing ,the difference between natural and un natural and when to say yes or no. These are things one must learn from those that know.
#132 under the radar on 05.25.23 at 6:01 am
Real estate decline, WFH and the decay of inner cities.
Two offices buildings 30 Cedar street Sudbury, and 40 King street Oshawa.
Both for sale by lenders, at about 1/3 of the cost to build. Conversion to residential makes no sense without significant municipal concessions.
Look at San Från, Portland, NYC , Chicago etc. all coming to a city near you. Careful what you wish for.++++
That’s why real wealth is forest bathing among European linden trees. City of Calgary announced five buildings in the downtown core will be converted to residential housing. Without the usual amenities that would attract buyers it just more of the affordable housing scenario in an area that has the most social disorder. Can you build me a tree house among the linden trees? Exit beginning to look attractive….
Garth if the federal government were to repudiate all loan guarantees or mortgage insurance coverage for mortgage lending in Canada what is the likely response from financial institutions? And how would it impact home prices and rents?
#39 Phyllis
I was downtown this morning, first time in a while. There were more homeless people than Porsches.
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I rarely venture downtown anymore. Only if I have to for some sort of obligation, event, appointment, etc.
It’s a disgusting scene.
Zombieland.
Like the set of Return of the Living Dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6zX6-Rf4JY&t=5s
@#123 Ponzie’s Perpetual Pessimism
“Just back from Banff and Lake Louise.
All that smoke from Northern Alberta.
Not so good.”
+++
Thats what happens when you ignore the weeks of endless news reports about evacuations, raging forest fires and air quality in Alberta.
Or
You wanted something to complain about when visiting Lake Louise and Banff so you went anyway…..?
#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.24.23 at 10:18 pm
@#96 Nordman
“Cold War 2 coming your way. DeSantis signs bills banning Chinese citizens from buying land in Florida.”
+++
I cringe at the thought of what will happen if China invades Taiwan and the inevitable sinking of a US warship.
The Chinese communist party leadership won’t bat an eye over the death of 100’s of thousands of their own troops. For the glory of the motherland.
One ship sunk with several hundred ( or thousand) US sailors……
The American and western world will go berserk…..
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Can’t see China doing anything like that, they’d be ringing their own death knell. Just look at who they import from and export to the most. That’d be like you or I at work telling all our best customers and suppliers to F-off.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China
If there’s one thing we’ve learned from the Russia/Ukraine conflict, is that the West acts as one. Not just in Government, but also corporations, even right down to the individual. China sells cheap labour and manufacturing, that’s pretty much it at the end of the line. It’s not like they have much else that isn’t available elsewhere. That cheap labour is replaceable by machine, or by more expensive domestic (or imported) labour.
If China does something extreme, their economy would be done like dinner, and it wouldn’t be long before the suffering Chinese Citizenry set their gaze on Jinping.
Tensions will rise either way though, as the USA is definitely closing doors.
Are you still cruel? – Garth
:):):)
Gimme a break, G. I was 10.
Og
@#131 joe
“They can rot in hell.”
+++
Very subtle.
How do you feel about the weather?
@#129 Clever Trevor
“And now that Mr Johnston’s verdict on the Trudeau China corruption scandal has exonerated the leader…..WOW…..just WOW !”
+++
Yeah.
I’m thinkin’ Mr Johnston is still on the Trudeau Christmas Card list this year….
For a master class in financial/economic cycles, money supply and velocity, etc.
Please enjoy Dr. Lacy Hunt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzgzK-1xudY
Holy NVDA! Not my holding, but my son’s: +25% at open today, +116% since taking his Jan position.
The next gen succeeding- that’s what it’s all about!
Mea culpa: +161% since Jan. I errored the numbers.
As they say: To err is human, to ‘Aaarrrh’ is pirate
Hmmmm
First Surrey doctors raising the alarm about hospital “Health care.”
Now Calgary doctors saying the exact same thing.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-doctors-warn-emergency-rooms-collapsing-1.6852938#:~:text=A%20group%20of%20nearly%20200,everywhere%2C%22%20the%20letter%20reads.
48 hour wait times in the Surrey ER.
15 hour waits in the Calgary ER.
One wonders how long anyone from the Trudeau or Ford family waits in an Emergency Room?
1 minute?
5 minutes?
Meh, they’ve been beating that drum for decades, if problem occurs they’ll change policy to issue more or increase the money supply is some form so at least the interest can be paid. That game game can still work for a while.
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#135 Steven Rowlandson on 05.25.23 at 7:23 am
You know something Garth, Justin Trudeau still looks like a 20 something to a lot of us.
It kind of boggles my mind that this is seen as a negative. He obviously takes care of himself. Being fit and healthy is something to be admired, regardless of what you think of his character or politics.
135 Steven Rowlandson on 05.25.23 at 7:23 am
He’s 51. – Garth
You know something Garth, Justin Trudeau still looks like a 20 something to a lot of us. Never the less the man still has a lot to learn before trying to run anything larger than his own family or even his own life. Like what work is , running a business for a profit, right and wrong, not running deficits, telling the truth, when to act and when to do nothing ,the difference between natural and un natural and when to say yes or no. These are things one must learn from those that know.
———————-
Silly comment.
JT has now been PM for about 8 years.
If you don’t like him, just say so.
It’s a free country.
#146 Sail Away on 05.25.23 at 9:39 am
Mea culpa: +161% since Jan. I errored the numbers.
As they say: To err is human, to ‘Aaarrrh’ is pirate
—————————-
The only problem is:
When an engineer makes an error, a bridge can collapse and people can die.
But if he’s just Troll on a pathetic blog, then it’s ok.
Because nobody cares.
This kind of ad hominem shot turns people away from partisanship politics. You are not serving your cause. – Garth
—————–
You are literally grand standing against an anonymous comment. Meanwhile you were okay with the PM calling Canadians Nazis.
Sure, but he didn’t. – Garth
“Bunny didn’t move. I shot next and hit it in the head…the screaming was shocking”
Bunny screaming is indeed unreal. My dog will chase them around and eventually they get exhausted, hunker down, and start screaming because they think death is imminent.
Little do they know, my sweet boy has no interest in harming them, he just likes chasing anything that moves. He’ll bark at the rabbit for a bit, as if to ask it to start running again, and then lose interest and walk away.
Thanks for the blog Garth
I got so burned on Bank stocks down for two years and dropping
I thought this blog said bank stocks will do well if interest rates rise.
The opposite is true.
Bought at the high sure I get dividends
What’s thoughts how many years till we get back to the highs again?
Obviously the markets knows something about the banks.
We said ‘don’t buy individual stocks.’ Next time, listen. – Garth
RE#138
Indeed some of the homeless are rather scruffy looking and some are criminal psychos and a danger to everyone.
I had an unfortunate encounter with one lately in my area north of TO. Then again some have honest jobs, live in their cars and are merely priced out of Canada. Like me.
The criminals and barbarians, I think need to be removed from civilized society and deported to nice places like Churchill, Manitoba so they can get high and play with the polar bears. The rest need real jobs with 6 digit incomes or land for a dollar an acre and gainful employment.
#142 Shawn on 05.24.23 at 11:18 pm
Here’s proof from the bank of Canada that in SOME cases NOTHING happens at the trigger rate. Negative amortization and infinite amortizations is allowed in some cases. How many? – I suspect a lot. In these cases the 75 year and infinite amortizations are not the result of any extensions – it’s just how the mortgage contract worked.
“When borrowers reach their trigger rates
Canadian lenders take different approaches for borrowers who reach their trigger rate.
Some lenders will automatically increase the mortgage payment so that it continues to cover the interest portion of the payment. With this approach, if interest rates rise further in subsequent months, the payment will also need to increase to cover the larger interest payment (similar to a variable-rate mortgage with variable payments).
Other lenders allow for negative amortization, where the interest payment is permitted to exceed the total mortgage payment. Principal payments are therefore negative, so the balance owed on the mortgage increases from month to month.”
Source: Bank of Canada
————————-
That’s correct.
The second case is called a”variable rate with fixed payments” contract.
I think it’s a fairly new product.
DELETED (Abusive)
#152 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.25.23 at 11:15 am
The only problem is:
When an engineer makes an error, a bridge can collapse and people can die.
But if he’s just Troll on a pathetic blog, then it’s ok.
Because nobody cares.
———
Oh, believe you me: There is somebody on this blog who cares very, very, very much. Very.
#156 ‘Steven’ – don’t feed the polar bears junkie food, it is bad for them. Quality seal meat, that’s the ticket!
Selling
MLS® # Date Event Price
May 24, 2023 Listed $2,799,900
Feb 23, 2022 Sold $2,830,000
Feb 16, 2022 Listed $2,750,000
Nov 30, 2017 Sold $1,655,000
Nov 22, 2017 Listed $1,698,888
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