Time to panic?
Of course not. For the entire 15 long years this pathetic blog has been in existence, those who remained calm, ignored the noise and stayed invested have done fine. Those who tried to time markets, flipped in and out of assets, specked on weed or crypto, day-traded and took advice from Instagram and YouTube prophets of doom or greed, probably got whacked.
But, there are times to be more aware than usual. This is one of them.
The coming days pose the last full week that American gladiators (Dems and Republicans) can come to an agreement on the nation’s debt ceiling and pass votes in the House and the Senate to stave off disaster. The treasury secretary (Janey Yellen, a former boss at the Fed) has informed America that the government will run out of money in less than two weeks.
You can see the cash reserves situation here…
Technically, the US emptied its purse in mid-January, but the Treasury Department has been reallocating dollars to keep the lights on since then. Those extraordinary measures will soon be exhausted. Come the first of June spending cuts will occur on a rolling basis. The country would probably suspend interest payments on outstanding bonds as they came up in order to reallocate money to social programs and defence. America will not shudder to a halt. And as the crisis unfolds it’s safe to assume legislators will find a solution. But in the meantime, it could nuke markets.
The immediate consequences would include a selloff in equities (after markets have advanced recently assuming no debt ceiling disaster occurs) and a surge in bond market yields (as American debt is devalued and investors flock to safe havens). There would likely be a kneejerk tsunami of cash as well into Bitcoin and bullion. (It’s no coincidence BTC is up 62% this year and gold bullion has added 12% in six months.)
Here is a Scotiabank Economics depiction of the current odds of the US defaulting…
It is no surprise that the States hit its borrowing limit in 2023. Everybody knew the calendar. Such an event has taken place dozens of times previously, since the US has a weird Constitutional requirement that all borrowing be approved by Congress (in Canada the feds just quietly pump out new bonds). The fact Democrats and Republicans have come to this point of ignition shows the extent to which politics has become polarized in Washington and beyond.
You can thank Trump for some of it.
There is a MAGA faction (the ‘Freedom Caucus’) within Republican ranks that wants the Biden White House to crash and burn and seems willing to take the country down with it. They demand less spending, slashed entitlements, more fiscal responsibility and (of course) less borrowing. While small, the caucus is powerful, since it controlled the election of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. He is The Guy now negotiating with Biden. Because Trump controls the Freedom Caucus which controls McCarthy who holds the key to default, well, you can see the danger. Trump is running to be President next year. Thus, the situation is incendiary.
What is likely to happen in the next four or five days?
A deal, of course. Somebody will blink. America missing debt payments would make the only risk-free assets on the planet – US Treasury bonds (of which there are $24 trillion) – tarnished and diminished. China alone has close to $1 trillion of them. Canada holds $254 billion.
Either Biden relents and cuts spending, weakening his re-election status, or the Republicans waver, and Turmp takes a hit. But Mr. Market is betting heavily that a deal will happen. At least until today.
Plan on a week in which volatility might spike uncomfortably. Interest rates may well push higher and bond values fall. Equities are likely to bounce around as investors weigh the big risk. Gold and crypto are also in for a potentially wild ride. It’s a time to be balanced and diversified, with a global portfolio. If you’ve got nerves, sit on them. It’s too late to sell stuff and go to cash. Never turn a paper loss into a real one if you can avoid it. And never take actions based solely on fear.
This will pass. But the barking will be epic.
About the picture: “Here are Rolo a golden on the left and Maui a yellow lab on the right,” writes Farid. “The picture shows them as ferociously attacking each other. They are actually play fighting . If only you could have heard the sounds coming from them. They were such good natured dogs that brought true joy to our family and friends. Love your blog. Will always love your blog and all the good bad and the ugly that comes with it.”
To be in touch or submit a picture of your beast – [email protected]
99 comments ↓
Thanks Garth. As I edge closer to 60….your advice always helps me navigate my emotional response to market swings.
Cheers (again)
Thanks Garth!
Sure, tell us not to time markets, then talk about volatility coming. That’s like telling a bull not to charge.
Any big dips and we’ll be loading up, as usual. Bring it on.
Okay, but what does Trump have to do with this? Team red may be obstructionist but Mr T hasn’t been in power for 2 years.
DELETED (Anti-vaccine whackadoodle)
For once, you’re beginning to scare me Garth.
You know, I took a look at that bond yield bps spread chart by Scotiabank and concluded:
Right up there with Italy vs. Germany bond bps spreads.
http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/spread/italy-10-years-vs-germany-10-years/
Now THAT’S a fall from grace if ever there was one.
Still the Greatest Show on Earth America is.
Never a dull moment. I would never bet against them even if they do default.
Besides, JP Morgan is still around to lend US Gov money if they need it.
Did someone say SALE? Let me get my things.
Off Topic – INFORMAL POLL (in the I could not resist dept.)
After your PM’s admonishment of PM Meloni and Italia’s LGBT + whatever record at the G7 summit, Italian’s have this question for you Canada:
Who do you think sang Day-O better?
Your guy:
https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1660304688028299264
or …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5dpBWlRANE&t=6s
—————————
Watch Liberal Gov Transfers to Economic Families increase in order to buy Cdn votes at the next election – make go away any “hand on heart” issues with “hand on pocketbook” payments.
Because, everyone has a THE PRICE IS RIGHT in mind, right Canada when it comes to Trudeau?
Ball gag him the next time you send him abroad.
Glad I have some dry powder, not much but a few k is a large amount for me. Looking at CAD banks ETF :)
#109 Joe Poplawski on 05.21.23 at 11:44 am
By the way:
the total world debt is $305 trillion.
$45 trillion added during pandemic.
So out of this $463 total global wealth roughly 2/3 is DEBT!!!
—————
Excellent illustration of the concept, and absurdity, of money.
It’s a closed system. This debt isn’t owed to interplanetary Borgs. This Stooges skit illustrates:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=s-ycvJC-qIQ
Every time there is money left at the end of the month, it goes in the b&d portfolio. The cake bake has been baking for about two decades and it keeps getting bigger. Just ignore the noise and keep investing.
#105 the Jaguar on 05.21.23 at 10:58 am
Cute that you feel the need to use my full name. Good to know that The Jaguar is skulking around my back stairs.
DELETED
My wife was watching the Bernie Made off with your money mini series and it appears he was caught when the tide went out, prior to that his reputation and integrity allowed him to side step initial fraud claims. A guy that did the math and dove into the details exposing Bernie was belittled to say the least but he was persistent. Congress questioning why the SEC didn’t follow the leads was priceless. Will Bank man fried get 150 years in prision?
The mortage broker in Victoria took his investors for 58 million. He’s no where to be found.
Crime is increasing…if it is not nailed or bolted down it is gonzo is less than 180 seconds as truck drove through Power Marine in Sooke BC at 3am in the morning and grabbed what they could. While shopping at Cdn Tire, I witnessed an employee pursue a man with a shoulder pack and a rolling carry on bag asking him to check his bags in at the front of the store. I heard the whole conversation as they stopped next to me in the sporting goods section. The guy just said you are not getting my bag and the employee stood his ground and escorted him out the door in a very polite manner. It was if the guy admited his intentions. We were near the hockey sticks…and I love Slapshot.
In other news H Clinton is warning against re electing Trump and the negative consequences for Ukraine. Which tells me Trump has a chance that I thought would be deminished after 4 years in the background.
The whole debt ceiling SNL skit is a distraction. No body wants to make the hard choiced they just want the power and the insider money/information or so it seems.
Maybe we should start focusing on rebuilding our democracry and economy before the tide is sucked out.
In other words, do not look at BNN or the daily ticker of the DJI, TSX or any other relevant stock market information until after June 1. Unless of course one wishes to feel anxiety/drama etc. Because I think the game of chicken is going to have quite the impact & yes, politics will have everything to do with it.
Welcome New Canadians! To your first Canada Day.
Let me be the first to pass on some of the traditions.
– The Fire. All the waste the garbagemen refused to take (too large or toxic) from the year is piled into a pit.
A clensing of the yard/basement/garage.
– The Songs. We down a bunch of Molson pops and see who may burp out the most bars in our national anthem.
Oh burp burp burp. Our burp and burp…you get the idea.
– Thw music. You know all those songs which were blasted at the detainees in Gitmo? Yep this is our soundtrack of summer.
Turn it up to 11.
A lot of this is for show. Both sides have to snarl and bite at each other to show their respective owners that they are earning their keep. If the market falls it will be good time to buy some solid stocks.
Dolce Vita on 05.21.23 at 12:24 pm
Who do you think sang Day-O better
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5dpBWlRANE&t=6s
@@@@@@@@@
Belafonte was great! This is classic.
He popularized Calypso to the world. I had the great priveledge to live in Trinidad for a year and Jamaica for a year. The music of the West Indies (Calypso, Soca, Reggae) is hypnotic and wonderful.
#9 Sail Away
Curly: Gives $10 of the $20 he owes to Moe. Curly still owes $10 to Moe.
Moe: Gives Larry $10 of the $20 he owes Larry. Moe still owes $10 to Larry.
Larry: Gives Curly $10 of the $20 he owes Curly. Larry still owes $10 to Curly.
Curly: Gives Moe $10. Curly debt to Moe extinguished. Curly has $0 debt.
Moe: Gives Larry $10. Moe debt to Larry extinguished. Moe has $0 debt.
Larry: Gives Curly $10. Larry debt to Curly extinguished. Larry has $0 debt.
Curly: good, then we’re all even, as he pockets the $10 he started with.
Nice World where there is no interest on debt.
——————-
#17 Don Guillermo
Ditto on everything you said.
One of my top favorites of all time and still is, Bob Marley:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFRbZJXjWIA
Lucky you to meet these people. Kudos.
Debt ceiling will get sorted. Stocks will bounce 5% immediately after. If Ukraine & Russia ever have a peace settlement, that would be another 5% bounce. But who knows with that. Putin’s position is the very definition of stale mate. I think the final outcome will be more like what exists for North and South Korea.
#11 Faron
Whoah.
Stalking?
Not good for you F. Not at all.
Shame on you The Jaguar.
– Pax F.
Stayin the course and don’t panic is obviously good advice. But this to me is not exculpatory of my charge that stock exchanges are mere casinos disguised as legitimate ventures.
In the private equity world, the variables are few and objectively measurable.
The viability of the business is more closely driven by demand, efficiency, productivity, and proper allocation of resources.
Sure, the macro backdrop has impact, but nut jobs like Trumplicans and /politicians et al – corrupt gang members, have miniscule impact.
9 Sail Away on 05.21.23 at 12:39 pm
#109 Joe Poplawski on 05.21.23 at 11:44 am
By the way:
the total world debt is $305 trillion.
$45 trillion added during pandemic.
So out of this $463 total global wealth roughly 2/3 is DEBT!!!
—————
Excellent illustration of the concept, and absurdity, of money.
It’s a closed system. This debt isn’t owed to interplanetary Borgs. This Stooges skit illustrates:
———————-
One man’s debt is another man’s asset.
And remember Government debt is man’s debt, too.
But in interplanetary debt, the question is if the debt is owed by the human or his Avatar.
Musk’s lawyers are working on it.
I’m sure they gonna consult with our resident SpaceX expert.
Hey Garth:
Thanks for the dose of sanity. Is there anyway we could improve our situation…ie…buy this when you see that…so I could recover some of my lost investments.
You are one of the few voices of sanity. Thanks for sharing your wisdom. I wish I had listed before….as I don’t want to eat cat food.
Michael
#11 Faron on 05.21.23 at 12:44 pm
#105 the Jaguar on 05.21.23 at 10:58 am
Cute that you feel the need to use my full name. Good to know that The Jaguar is skulking around my back stairs.
&&&&&&&&&
I know exactly how you feel. Just the other day someone called me Williams in the comments.
#100 Olivia on 05.21.23 at 8:27 am
Ohhhh, St. Louis!
Stroll The Loop on beauty day…I’d be ear to ear!
Great name, btw….
Og
#11 Faron on 05.21.23 at 12:44 pm
#105 the Jaguar on 05.21.23 at 10:58 am
#24 Don Guillermo
Pax to you too DG.
Shame on that person as well.
I cannot believe people become that petty on a Blog such as this, that is just so much fun, entertaining and informative.
In need of help an understatement.
I have a US funds account and just transferred those funds into Canadian, something I do pretty regularly anyway, but for some reason forgot this month. So whew.
I am all in Canadian cash now. Cashed out of precious metals stock about 6 weeks ago. Made 150% return on it since 2017, and it’s in my tfsa.
So, a double thanks to you for the tfsa and for reminding me to cash out of the American dollar for now.
Imitation is the highest form of flattery, or so they say.
Harry Belafonte speaking in MTL @ a black film festival in 2012..
“I deeply miss Pierre Trudeau and what he represented at a time in my own youth when he was head of state and did much to keep the world on focus”
Belafonte called Pierre one of his best friends in Canada who he would frequently visit. Also, when President Carter hosted PET at the White House for a state dinner, he asked that Belafonte be in attendance, as a friend of Trudeau’s.
Belafonte died less than a month ago. He will be remembered by most for the impact of his music & activism.
And for the exceedingly shallow among us, they can remember him in other ways, sadly.
#24 Don Guillermo on 05.21.23 at 1:45 pm
Good one, lol.
The irony is Trump increased the debt by 25% on his watch. The hypocrisy is stunning
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/14/trump-legacy-national-debt-increasee/
I took out some portfolio insurance last week.
Of course, the vast majority of my not-so-vast retirement is managed by a Wealthsimple robot.
Here’s what I think (based on what far better informed wealth managers think).
Two issues around the debt ceiling. First is the failure of a deal means government shutdown not default. Income tax covers the servicing of US debt, so zero chance of default even with no deal. At least initially. However, government shutdown is a direct hit on the economy as a vast tranche of people don’t get paid and thus can’t spend nearly as much.
Second is that when a deal is reached, there’s speculation that about $1T of debt needs to be issued by the US treasury to refill the TGA. Some are hyping this to be a liquidity sucking event for markets if that high interest, risk free debt looks at all better than the risk/return prospects of equities. IMO 5.5% annualized for only having to lock your money away for a month is not bad. This scenario is reverse TINA on steroids.
The latter bit is getting a lot of play on mainstream financial media, so I’m beginning to think it’s overdone. As consensus grows that “sell in May” is the right move, the exact opposite will be the pain trade. Or, imagine if NASDAQ kept ripping and bonds kept getting dumped? Screaming rates, and a rocketing wealth effect to reignite inflation just when the US Fed is pondering a June pause.
#28 Oakville Rocks! on 05.21.23 at 2:58 pm
Imitation is the highest form of flattery, or so they say.
Harry Belafonte speaking in MTL @ a black film festival in 2012..
“I deeply miss Pierre Trudeau and what he represented at a time in my own youth when he was head of state and did much to keep the world on focus”
Belafonte called Pierre one of his best friends in Canada who he would frequently visit.
=============================
COMMENT:
Very touching.
T1 loved everyone…
Except his own citizens….
Thanks for explaining the reactions to a default scenario so well, I was wondering what that would be. I happen to believe it’s a foregone conclusion that it will happen with the current lineup.
The greater question then would be how do you play the rebound and the treasury refill once the crisis is over?
That would be the trade of the decade.
Speaking of debt issuance, why did Freeland not take the debt over a 10 year period instead of the 2 or 3 year period. Did they not think or see that the world would be in an inflationary environment? 36 billion in interest payments alone this year…95 million/day….then again who gives a shit right? It’s just money
1. The US dollar is on a very slow downward trend which could have some volatility.
2. Canadian real estate prices should correct sharply in 2025 to 2026 or even sooner if the fickle Canadian property owners get scared.
3. Inflation will be sticky and Canadian employment measures are bound to deteriorate especially in the building trades.
4. Canadian government debt will strain government finances as their bonds roll over at higher rates.
You forgot to blame Russia Garth.
I think there is a bigger risk than normal this time around. This “Freedom Caucus” of MAGA ilk is different.
IMHO they are all a bunch of Putin sympathizers. Anything can happen.
78 times the debt ceiling has been raised, a few times with dramatic last minute scuttle-butting to accompany a lift in spend to happily avoid the impending fear sell spiral.
Mr. Market is pricing in the debt ceiling issue as a done deal, 78-0, totally get that.
How far down can we go in the ultra rare event of a stale mate that triggers a US default, pretty far… my humble guess should this reality materialize one full week after the pay cheques are placed on pause…10-18%
Nowhere to hide when events of this gravity & scale unfold.
SPVIX from 16 to 60 in a 120 hours?
Interesting set up, buying durable quality companies on any meaningful pullback seems reasonable, I wish I could say the same for the Democrats & Republicans.
US has a weird Constitutional requirement that all borrowing be approved by Congress (in Canada the feds just quietly pump out new bonds).
*****
Nailed it with your subliminal message. No one seems to care anymore. A billion dollars was a lot of money once upon a time. Still is.
#29 the Jaguar on 05.21.23 at 2:58 pm
#24 Don Guillermo on 05.21.23 at 1:45 pm
Good one, lol.
—
No. It will seem like a small difference to someone like you, but there’s a big difference between Don’s freely offering up his name and my never having done so.
Because I know I’m easy for creepers to creep, I expect it and take it as a warning that weirdos are afoot.
40 Fantasy
“Because I know I’m easy for creepers to creep, I expect it and take it as a warning that weirdos are afoot.”
++++
This might come as as an ego crushing shock, but most of the commenters…really…don’t care.
I’ve added some top tier gold miners to my portfolio over the past week. Not sure what is going to happen over the next few weeks, but if the US does default on debt payments (even for a short period of time) It will be send gold stocks soaring. So it’s worth having a small slice of that pie in a portfolio IMO. Kevin McCarthy is pretty screwed either way. Wouldn’t want his job!
After 15 years of QT all asset prices have soared.
Be aware of the “Great Unwind”.
“Get ready for the great unwinding”, Financial Times
https://www.ft.com/content/0fb2e067-6c71-4914-beb8-aed44c037fb4
Yeah, it sure sucks that conservatives want to curtail out of control spending… and it’s Trump’s fault apparently.
Finally! Someone has the guts to call the whole Volkswagen battery thing the spade that it is.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/canadas-galling-bribe-to-climate-supervillain-volkswagen
Also…Globe doesn’t agree with you Garth. This opinion piece says…brace for impact.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-us-debt-ceiling-economic-crisis/
If U.S. treasury bonds are the only risk free asset on earth, what does that say about the whole rotten system? $ 24 trillion worth of paper are just that- paper. My risk free assets include contraband smokes, black market weed, canned food, dry goods, extra gasoline, ample firewood supplies, copious amounts of alcohol, advil to counteract hangovers, silver coinage, cash and the family Bible. And I’m not a doom and gloomer, I just like my creature comforts. See y’all at the black marketplace, suckers.
45 Theory of Everything on 05.21.23 at 6:06 pm
Finally! Someone has the guts to call the whole Volkswagen battery thing the spade that it is.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/canadas-galling-bribe-to-climate-supervillain-volkswagen
Also…Globe doesn’t agree with you Garth. This opinion piece says…brace for impact.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-us-debt-ceiling-economic-crisis/
—————————-
Because some guy at a newspaper writes something does not mean he knows what he’s talking about.
Sometimes it’s better to asked the shoeshine boy for his opinion.
#105 the Jaguar on 05.21.23 at 10:58 am
Bro, you know that’s a tell, right?
All-in that you’ve got nothin’
Ya, let’s all cheer and hope that the debt crisis gets resolved with…more debt. Great, that should fix it! LOL.
#41 Crowdy
This might come as as an ego crushing shock, but most of the commenters…really…don’t care.
———————————————–
I’ll second that.
Yes euveryone remain calm. In Garth’s defense, that’s sound and easy advice when the system has been rigged for 15 or more years. Bay Street, Wall Street, real estate, you name it.
Stay invested in the great scam that we call the modern economy. 71 stock market records, $65,000 Bitcoin and soaring real estate prices during a world wide pandemic and shotdown. 90 year amortizations, bank and depositor bailouts, along with zombie corporations ruling the roost.Try wrapping your head around all that.
Makes total sense.
@#32 Alois,
Why do you say T1 never loved his fellow Canadians?
======================
Last week people were sharing their favorite recipes for spaghetti so let me contribute an idea for dinner that is simple and blew my mind the first time I tried it.
A potato chip omelet.
I am guessing everyone knows how to make an omelet.
Just eggs, maybe a little H20 or milk and then whisk those eggs like a mother. You want frothy aerated eggs.
Next fold in the potato chips, gently and let them soak in the egg mixture a minute.
Get a non stick pan ready with some olive oil or butter (I never use margarine so I cannot speak to it).
Pour in the eggs and let the bottom set and when the top is almost set, sprinkle in some cheese of your choice and fold over. For ease I will finish this in the oven so the top sets and cheese / chips get browned in places.
Variations: omelets are great for using up what you have (bacon, ham, left over peppers, onion etc).
If using these, saute first, remove and then add to the centre when adding the cheese.
This can be adapted for many by using more eggs and cooking almost as if you are making a frittata (like a pie, no folding but flipping the entire pie over, or finish in the oven)
Because I like it crunchy, I often will crush the potato chips and only add them to the center of the omelet once the bottom is set but the top is still liquid.
The fresher the eggs the better.
The better the chips the more awesome this is (I like the UK’s Walker’s Cheese & Onion crisps for this)
Also, almost any cheese will work. I grate parmigiano reggiano into the egg mixture and finish with another cheese. This evening I used Black River’s PepperJack cheese, aged cheddar works too.
Next to a side salad – this is good eats and dead simple.
#47 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.21.23 at 6:24 pm
Sometimes it’s better to asked the shoeshine boy for his opinion.
===================================
COMMENT:
You missed a spot….
….no tip for you !
Instead of admitting he was wrong and out of his league in the discussion at hand, he comes up with this BS
////
’82 Faron on 05.20.23 at 10:38 pm
I see what your are saying. Frankly, Bdwy didn’t exactly explain it “correctly and clearly”. Overall, it’s an embarrassment that the four of them (if you include crowdedelevatorfartz and wattson) couldn’t get it straight. Sheesh.
////
So according to Faron, Bdwy didn’t explain it ‘ correctly or clearly’ but Faron still felt he was in the right to correct Bdwy when he was clearly in the wrong.
Sorry Faron, but Bdwy is an engineer who knows about this shit.
Stick to your pseudo climate science where you can be wrong and still claim to be right.
#40 Faron on 05.21.23 at 5:18 pm
#29 the Jaguar on 05.21.23 at 2:58 pm
#24 Don Guillermo on 05.21.23 at 1:45 pm
Good one, lol.
—
No. It will seem like a small difference to someone like you, but there’s a big difference between Don’s freely offering up his name and my never having done so.
Because I know I’m easy for creepers to creep, I expect it and take it as a warning that weirdos are afoot.
#######
You seemed proud a while back when your 15 minutes of fame TV interview was posted and your full name was out there loud and proud. I believe you were fairly new to the blog then and still on your best behavior.
Just checking in to see if there have been any Tesla vehicle crashes anywhere in the world lately?
I know there’s a guy who tracks and diligently reports every one, thinking it reflects badly on Tesla, when the rest of us are thinking “wow, if they can report on every single accident that vehicle must be phenomenally safe, since they sure couldn’t report on any other car company that way, without making thousands of reports daily that is.” So funny.
Also loving the “debt default” panicky doomers who will hopefully provide me with some good opportunities in stocks and long US bonds over the next few days/weeks.
Sure is nice to collect 5% while waiting for nervous nellies to sell great companies to me cheap.
I’d mention some names but then the obsessed ‘tracker’ would feel the need to spend even more time pretending he knows what I bought, when, at what price etc etc.
Gawd that must be exhausting.
There are two ways to increase deficits and debt:
1) spend spend spend
2) reduce taxes and return money to those who earned it.
One is better than the other and I will happily vote for it every time.
#47 Ponzie
Because some guy at a newspaper writes something does not mean he knows what he’s talking about.
Sometimes it’s better to asked the shoeshine boy for his opinion.
——————————————————————
Ain’t that the truth. Back in the day when the VSE was the place to go for hot stocks the joke of the day was. “Who is the most knowlegable person at the VSE?” Answer: The elevator operator.
NUKE markets please!!
Cash ready for deployment.
“78 times the debt ceiling has been raised…”
Hopefully it’s as transparent as union and management negotiations.
#47 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.21.23 at 6:24 pm
45 Theory of Everything on 05.21.23 at 6:06 pm
Finally! Someone has the guts to call the whole Volkswagen battery thing the spade that it is.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/canadas-galling-bribe-to-climate-supervillain-volkswagen
Also…Globe doesn’t agree with you Garth. This opinion piece says…brace for impact.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-us-debt-ceiling-economic-crisis/
—————————-
Because some guy at a newspaper writes something does not mean he knows what he’s talking about.
Sometimes it’s better to asked the shoeshine boy for his opinion.
====
I hear you. But these two pieces aren’t exactly speaking nonsense. Even Garth notes similar points, just slightly different conclusions. Garth is 51% be chill. This guy is 51% be worried. Just 2% apart. :-)
This debt ceiling thing is just a non-factor to spice things up on the market and give Wallstreet some beta to trade against and plunder from the retail cattle.
#40 Faron: “Because I know I’m easy for creepers to creep, I expect it……”
LOL…..you do think a lot of yourself. Ask yourself, why would a creeper creep out a creep..
Every month or so a planeload of Ukrainian women with children land in Vancouver. Their put up in & around Steveston by their church. After a few weeks orientation they fly on to Manitoba & Saskatchewan. They like the Steveston walk alongside the Fraser & down to the park where they can see out onto Georgia Straight. Stopping along the way for a coffee at Starbucks (they get a packet of coupons to different stores) & visiting the fishermen’s fish sales dock. A waterfront promenade is soothing for these rattled women. They put on a brave front but I notice hand tremors on some when grabbing the coffee cup. We get a chance to talk to some that speak english. We don’t mention their menfolk or the war.
A teacher made an interesting comment about the Chinese over there before the war. All of a sudden 8 months before the war started the Chinese started leaving. Closing their restaurants & small businesses all over the Ukraine, students abandoning their studies. At first the propaganda was that they were being discriminated against. But this was a lie because as a teacher she knew some Chinese women. They were told to leave. There were thousands & they all left in two months around 6 months before the invasion.
The same kind of thing happened here just before Covid. Six weeks before the hammer came down Richmond Chinese got a 51k signature petition & presented it to Ottawa. Basically saying that there were 8 planeloads of Chinese arriving every day at YVR & they should be screened &/or stopped. Something bad was up back home. The Feds dismissed it as racist or ignored them or whatever & we know the rest of the story.
The point being if you see the Chinese cashing out $U.S. in the next weeks don’t be a dumb honky. Just do what they do.
#55 Don Guillermo on 05.21.23 at 7:27 pm
#40 Faron on 05.21.23 at 5:18 pm
#29 the Jaguar on 05.21.23 at 2:58 pm
#24 Don Guillermo on 05.21.23 at 1:45 pm
Good one, lol.
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No. It will seem like a small difference to someone like you, but there’s a big difference between Don’s freely offering up his name and my never having done so.
Because I know I’m easy for creepers to creep, I expect it and take it as a warning that weirdos are afoot.
#######
You seemed proud a while back when your 15 minutes of fame TV interview was posted and your full name was out there loud and proud. I believe you were fairly new to the blog then and still on your best behavior.
+++++++++
He was just released then and still on his meds. Things are different now. The voices are back.
I will link today’s post “The fight” with Friday’s post “The bomb (maybe)”
Today’s post “The fight” is about the debt of the US government. Uncertainty about the debt of the US government would affect attitudes about Canadian mortgages. If the T2 government changes the rules on Canadian mortgages they would be seen as less valuable. You could imagine that the banks would write down their mortgages. If they did they would be a lot less willing to write new mortgages. There would be a sudden withdrawal of credit from the Canadian real estate market.
We’re walking on thin ice.
#54 Penny Henny on 05.21.23 at 7:25 pm
TSLA loving engineers making order of magnitude errors. That tracks.
It is pretty sad what the Republican Party has been reduced to, where radical views have been more or less normalized. The entire country, and world, is being held hostage by a reflexive policy of whatever the democrats do, do the opposite.
Advocating to cut spending is easy, deciding on where to cut (medicare, social security, defence, infrastructure etc.) is much harder. Austerity (trickle down economics) doesn’t work. What’s even more sad is people still fall for it.
Predictions: if a deal is reached, this will be forgotten by voters come election time. If by some chance a deal is not reached, the republicans will wear this.
IDK
@45 Theory of Everything on 05.21.23 at 6:06 pm
Quote : “Finally! Someone has the guts to call the whole Volkswagen battery thing the spade that it is.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/canadas-galling-bribe-to-climate-supervillain-volkswagen
“
——
Know your publications.. National Post.. if the VW deal hadn’t gone through, you’d see an article from the same author telling you how bad for business, bad for the economy the Libs are, for letting this deal fall through. Maybe even take some jabs at how they don’t care about EVs, only taxing fuel, etc etc etc.
Basically take everything PP supporters think the cbc is, now reverse that and that is actually the NP.
Nigeria shredding paper currency
One of the first nations to go CBDC.
https://www.tiktok.com/@tyson_melbourne6/video/7233616110036290818
#55 Don Guillermo on 05.21.23 at 7:27 pm
#40 Faron on 05.21.23 at 5:18 pm
#29 the Jaguar on 05.21.23 at 2:58 pm
You seemed proud a while back when your 15 minutes of fame TV interview was posted and your full name was out there loud and proud. I believe you were fairly new to the blog then and still on your best behavior.
—
I see you are trying to excuse others’ bad behaviour. Nice look.
#63 CJohnC on 05.21.23 at 8:20 pm
#40 Faron: “Because I know I’m easy for creepers to creep, I expect it……”
LOL…..you do think a lot of yourself. Ask yourself, why would a creeper creep out a creep..
—
Ask Old Boot. Ask The Jaguar. Ask BillyBob.
#56 AnonyMusk on 05.21.23 at 7:28 pm
Thanks for your interest.
Well, you have the Tesla that t-boned a bus and injured 18 in Sac.
https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/at-least-18-injured-crash-prisoner-transport-bus-downtown-sacramento/
Or do you want to draw from the Teslas hitting emergency vehicles file?
How about the defect rate being orders of magnitude that of a Toyota?
More fire-related deaths than any other EV?
This account covers a lot of the crap in China.
https://twitter.com/TeslaqJ
Anything else you want to know?
Faron on 05.21.23 at 5:18 pm
#29 the Jaguar on 05.21.23 at 2:58 pm
#24 Don Guillermo on 05.21.23 at 1:45 pm
Good one, lol.
—
No. It will seem like a small difference to someone like you, but there’s a big difference between Don’s freely offering up his name and my never having done so.
=====================
Sigh, you’re in a hole buddy. It’s time to stop digging.
Do you not remember that you posted your full name here just over a year ago?
When you’re wrong, you’re really wrong bro! Too often.
I suggest (again) that you lay off the trolling for awhile and see if things improve. It worked for me. :)
For the record, your posts that do not include trolling are valuable and appreciated. I’m certain others will agree.
Cheers, R
DELETED
#69 Blobby
I hear you. They write what we’ll click on.
At the same time, VW did do those things.
VW did cheat and lie to their customer and sell products, which release damaging particulates on average reducing a city dwellers life by 4 years.
VW cheated their customers and polluted everyone’s air, and now VW are getting a subsidy to build EV batteries for EVs we know are not the solution to our problems.
A battery plant, which is likely to circumvent many environmental steps and result in a significant front loaded CO2 footprint in Ontario to more than offset any claimed savings by the actual cars by a significant multiplier.
Hectares burned in AB wildfires by year? A Chart.
https://twitter.com/ddawgmvp/status/1660414317618171904
https://www.dailyheraldtribune.com/news/grande-prairie-rcmp-arrest-one-and-ask-public-for-assistance-in-identifying-other
Grande Prairie RCMP arson investigation: One suspect arrested, police ask for public assistance identifying others
— — Here’s a Canada Day joke. Or is it.
What’s seen a greater threat to this government’s regime.
Is it a pickup truck flying an “ISIS” flag (remember them)?
Or is it a pickup truck flying a Canadian flag.
Its over. Post-national state of…
I’m sorry…I was fishing…
Is something going on? Actually, hold that thought…
My neighbour just arrived with more beer. Whatever is going on will have to wait… Ice is off and bite is on!! I’ll look at my investments at the end of June…like I usually do…
Nah. Value dividend paying equity beats all. Let the leftists scream thier theatrical screams, nobody stops paying thier cellphone bills.
I’f you’ve got good cash flow…and you should…any volitile action will be a great time to vultch on emotional puking.
The left is known for hiring goons to burn loot and rape. They want to sway people away from common sense into a worried gonzo state.
The Communist liberal left want panic, don’t give it too them. They want you to think the world is coming to and end, it isn’t….think climate change ending all life in 5 years…..hahahaha.
I’m buying consistently because sitting on too much cash isn’t smart. And I know that which is worrying today will likely vanish today. I’m with guys like Scott Moe, Pierre, long term sensible .
Think about the long term returns on the S&P …12.5%….add a 5% dividend….throw in an occasional leepy superstock busting loose a 2000% homerun into your even weighted quiver, and you’re getting rich without grief. GLTA
Any oversized USA tariffs on CDN/VW batteries in OUR future planning?
Any lead acid car battery purchased retail in NS is generally produced in USA via NAFTA ‘progress’ these days, not the other way around.
#55 Don Guillermo on 05.21.23 at 7:27 pm
You seemed proud a while back when your 15 minutes of fame TV interview was posted and your full name was out there loud and proud. I believe you were fairly new to the blog then and still on your best behavior.
=========================
Right. Star of the Saanich News lol. Now actually thinks people care enough to stalk him.
Meanwhile, he’s done the same to SailAway and his wife, but conveniently glosses over that.
Zero integrity, always the double standard.
Unfortunately, he loves being Top Troll here too much to ever move on. Wonder how many other blogs he plagues with his crap?
More opinions…a default is the medicine we need?
>>>
And yet, an American debt default would be precisely the wake-up call the world needs.
In reality, we have spent the last 20 years piling up more debt and bigger deficits as if all that money would never have to be paid back. It has stoked inflation, fuelled bubbles in every kind of asset, channelled capital into the most unproductive investments possible and hooked governments on big spending programmes that we can’t afford.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/21/us-debt-default-is-the-wake-up-call-the-world-needs/
Oh my. Oh my my.
I seem to have stumbled into a bit of a public Wile E flogging. By my engineer’s estimate, the dislike:like ratio is running around 10:0.
Give the poor fella a break, will you? Sure, he doxxes, he stoxxes, he insults, defames and misrepresents… but what other qualified expert is willing to go on public record predicting climate change will turn the Southeast US into mammal Armageddon in 19.2 years?
That little drop of gold is worth all the abuse, because, in the words of our 23yo son: “Mummy, everyone dies one day. Everyone. Even wolves. But not books. Not words. Words don’t die.”
Profound.
So, are we headed for another “so-called” fiscal cliff?
Like the over-hyped nothing burger of 2012?
Just more filler for the ignorant talking heads on MSM.
Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah
https://www.cnn.com/2012/12/30/politics/fiscal-cliff/index.html
Just buy a house in Canada?
Or a portfolio of individual stocks and a some etfs that track the broader markets?
Doesn’t matter because the carbon tax has saved us all from eminent destruction.
If only we were taxed more. Then all the fires in Alberta would go out.
Raining in Burnaby this am.
Hopefully that cool, wet, precip.. will drip its way east and north.
One more week in the Alberta election and the rhetoric, like the forests, is heating up to a boiling point.
Will the Big Blue machine roll over the Orange Crush?
Or will the socialists win and drive the last pump jack away with an electric truck?
Very hypocritical of the MAGA turds to be so anti-spending considering the deficits of the Trump years. Typical.
The real problem with the issue of raising the debt level is it is putting off fixing the real problem. That being making the decision to not borrow and to quit the excessive spending. The fact that government has debt is proof that government is being irresponsible even to the point of being criminal.
#87 Classical Liberal Millennial on 05.22.23 at 9:06 am
Very hypocritical of the MAGA turds to be so anti-spending considering the deficits of the Trump years. Typical.
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So simplistic to think deficits arise only from increased, wasteful spending.
They also arise from letting people keep more of their hard earned money.
Millennials not understanding basic economics. So typical.
It’s extremely hard for any politician to make meaningful spending cuts, as media excoriates any cut no matter how small and people who think government actually provides things at no cost are allowed to vote.
In our democracy people will always vote for endless spending that they hope someone else will pay for, so the only thing a fiscal conservative can do is applaud tax cuts.
We are going to have massive deficits, so we can at least have them for the right reason. (Oh and bet on constant currency devaluation, it’s a given, obviously.)
Keep on voting for endless spending and deficits while moaning about the inflation that inevitably results Mills, and we’ll keep ignoring you and benefiting from owning things that rise in value due to inflation.
There are only a couple solid options for people concerned about currency defaults.
What currency defaults? – Garth
#73 Faron on 05.21.23 at 10:20 pm
Anything else you want to know?
—————————————————-
No, I have a life, thanks though.
Fishman’s piece has had me thinking all morning about the Deep Space Nine tv series.
“We are Borg, we are one”
China?
DELETED (Mocking proper name)
Sure, stay invested. But a healthy portion of cash right now would be prudent. I’m been selling VFV into strength and am at 25% right now. Debt ceiling + more rate hikes, big sale coming up!
73 Faron :
You are in an ignorance bubble about Tesla . That’s OK, the majority of people still are . Perhaps Elon’s pivot to experiment with educational advertising will help with Tesla’s mission ( To convert the world to renewble sustainable energy). In the meantime, understand that Tesla is primarily an AI juggernaut .
#88. In a fiat monetary system with central banking at the hub and control, money = debt, money is backed by nothing but is created by debt, which forces governments to be in perpetual debt. Or else all currency would go back to where it came from, i.e. thin air, and then our society would be devoid of all cirrency and all progression would stop dead. That is the reality of our current fiat, central banking monetary system.
#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.22.23 at 8:55 am
One more week in the Alberta election and the rhetoric, like the forests, is heating up to a boiling point.
Will the Big Blue machine roll over the Orange Crush?
Or will the socialists win and drive the last pump jack away with an electric truck?
================================
COMMENT:
The pundits are saying that Calgary voters will decide the election.
Apparently Edmonton is too woke.
If Alberta gets another NDP Gov’t they are done. Notley and crew will stick the final fork in it.
Debt ceiling or not…
Reserve currency status for $USD is over.
#BRICS has already started….
Things will continue to get more expensive.
David Pylyp
Toronto
I wonder about people. My SIL is RCMP, the other is a US doctor. The RCMP guy stayed behind in Edson to patrol when evacuation was ordered. Looting was rampant especially in rural places. There are too few RCMP to be everywhere at once.
The galling thing is they know who the likely thieves are but can’t arrest them for lack of evidence. Plus, they will get released easily to continue on their way. As he says, there are lots of horrible people out there. Yet he is ruled by the book. I think of “Gunsmoke” at times like these.
The other thing I find disturbing are the number of wildfires that seem to have been set by arsonists. It’s like if I can’t have it, I will burn things down.
I keep my pride and will go down fighting against stupid.
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