To the dismay of the houseless and the burn-it-all-down crowd, we’ve told you about those things that are getting better. And it’s a fat little list.
Over forty thousand more jobs created last month and an unemployment rate near all-time lows. Increasing wages. In fact, the average pay is now swelling faster than inflation. And speaking of that, the latest number is just a few whiskers over 4%, which means it has halved in about a year. The economy is growing far faster than the central bank forecast. And, of course, the Bank of Canada has gone comatose. Interest rates have been on pause for many weeks now, and will likely stay that way for the rest of the year.
All that is nothing to scoff at. Mortgage rates have drifted back into the 4% range at many lenders and the housing market has been in rebound mode. All-time record high prices in Calgary. A giant price gain during April in the GTA. Sales levels ticking higher in Vancouver and Victoria. Multiple bids, blind auctions, bully offers, over-asking prices – it’s all back.
Some people think the 25-30% price correction we saw in January is as much as we’ll ever get. Given the fact rates have peaked, incomes are growing and the population is expanding they believe real estate can only appreciate from here.
Others say phooey. Society’s drowning in debt. Prices are still insane. Lenders pushing out amortizations for millions of borrowers shows this is nothing more than a dead cat bounce – a mere house made of cards. Any gust of adversity will topple it. So let the greater fools buy. They’ll learn and burn.
Okay, so what could go wrong?
Lots, of course. So if you’re a negative person you’ll enjoy the following.
First, we could all go over the debt ceiling cliff. Talks this week will be crucial in determining if American politicians can compromise enough to allow more government borrowing and avoid the US defaulting on Treasury bonds. That would be a disaster. Markets would tank (at least for a while). Short-term interest rates would spike as the planet’s only risk-free assets (those American bonds) are whacked. The US dollar would fade. There could be a global downturn as a result.
It’s all too crazy to let happen. Biden pledges it won’t. But, yikes, look at this…
Source: Scotiabank Economics
A more likely killer for Canadian real estate is what happens when all these elongated mortgages come up for renewal. As you know the big banks, encouraged by the federal government, have arbitrarily extended amortizations in order to keep over-indebted borrowers from facing huge monthly increases – and selling their homes in distress. Now a third of all the Big Six mortgage portfolios have ams over 30 years. A big chunk is over 40. As this blog has shown, amortizations of 70 and even 90 years have been reported.
It’s historic. And this has also spared the real estate market from a deeper correction and crashing prices. Instead of forcing people to sell homes they can no longer carry, flooding the market with listings, the lenders have kept payments steady and kicked the debt can down the road. Homeowners with variable-rate mortgages are solvent, but they have been paying off little or none of their indebtedness and face a reckoning upon renewal. Millions of people will confront this situation in 2024 and 2025.
“They don’t really understand at renewal because 30 yr amortizations revert to 25 yr and the payments must rocket upwards, even if rates are less than today,” says mortgage broker Fron Butler. “Here’s the true evil: today although the borrower feels relieved that the high payment can has been kicked down the road, the horrible result is giving up on the idea that a mortgage is ever paid off and to own a home outright. We have drifted into the hellacious world of full financialization debts are NEVER paid off only rolled into the future.”
Will this be enough to bring a new, deeper plunge in Canadian house prices next year? And what if we have a recession at the same time?
Some people think it is absolutely inevitable that the US will lead us down that path later in 2023. They say you cannot have the Fed hike interest rates eleven times without consequence. They point to the failure of big regional banks lately (starting with Silicon Valley) as evidence the central bank clumsily ‘broke stuff’ with its aggressive policy. Then add in the growing and destructive polarization of American politics as the next Presidential election looms. Plus the havoc and threat being caused by dudes like Putin and Xi.
“We believe the Fed may pause rate hikes,” says a new report from Penock Idea Hub, “but it’s unlikely to ease until it’s too late and a crisis erupts. Expect a recession in H2 2023. Such an environment should be supportive of Treasury prices, but create headwinds for stock and commodity prices.”
Well, there ya go. A debt-inspired financial crisis. A mortgage Armageddon at the banks. And negative economic growth. Everything but locusts and a new Adele tour.
So those patiently waiting to buy a house at half-off may be the winners. Or, of course, the losers.
About the picture: “This,” writes Nathan, “is my vicious beast.” (I wrote and asked N for more details, but no reply. He may have been killed and consumed already.)
To be in contact or submit a picture of your beast – [email protected].
120 comments ↓
“As you know the big banks, encouraged by the federal government, have arbitrarily extended amortizations in order to keep over-indebted borrowers from facing huge monthly increases – and selling their homes in distress.”
If the government has already done it once, what’s stopping them from doing it again, or just making the budget item a permanent policy?
I don’t know how much money the bank makes off the interest charges on a 70+ year amortization, but I bet it’s a lot. And it’s not like they’re on the hook if the mortgagee defaults, either. That’s what CMHC is for.
Yogism #95: “I keep choosing the right turn only to end up back where I started”.
Just got home from a 10 day vacation in Pennsylvania & New York. Economy appears very strong. Every business is ‘looking for staff’ – if you can drive a semi I am guessing you will be set for life financially. Price of hotel rooms is insane along with restaurant prices. Very little real estate for sale. Example, Olean, NY, pretty town of about 15,000 people south of Buffalo, MLS has less than 20 listings, this is a small city but is not a tiny little village, strong college, Chipotle is opening there. The pain of housing is everywhere.
Martha Stewart – 2023 SI Swimsuit edition cover model @ 81.
Must you boomers ruin everything!
Mind you, good on her to pull it off and keep it on.
Why loser? I try to save and wait and im loser? I wait for 2025 to be a winner. Thank you very much for this!
Since we already established yesterday that the only young people able to own houses are those that either “Failed to lunch” and live in the basement or those that were smart and were / are nice to their parents there is really nothing to see here. I am an early X so was lucky enough to buy while it was still affordable and ot in at the bottom of the ladder and climbed up.
For every other young person out there , rent or plan to buy a box in the sky as a first home ( nothing wrong with a 300 sqft studio for a couple who doesn’t WFH) and be super extra nice to your parents.
The debt ceiling will resolve itslef one way or the other and we will get a correction for sure this year ,we always do ,it is part of the investment cycle.
Flop Drops.
Here ye! Here ye! The Town Crier of Surrey has declared the price of land is coming down.
No, not Ponzie, the other Crier in Surrey
Original asking 975k
Assessment 1.24
Just sold for 735k
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2750649/12872-OLD-YALE-ROAD-Surrey-BC/
Well, I don’t know about any Crier Boys, but Australian band Choirboys have a good one to some this up…
Fireworks, fireworks
There’s gonna be fireworks
If you keep on pushing
Keep on pushing
There’ll be fireworks…
M48BC
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aZaC-R-5YiU
They don’t really understand at renewal because 30 yr amortizations revert to 25 yr and the payments must rocket upwards, even if rates are less than today,” says mortgage broker Fron Butler. “Here’s the true evil: today although the borrower feels relieved that the high payment can has been kicked down the road, the horrible result is giving up on the idea that a mortgage is ever paid off and to own a home outright. We have drifted into the hellacious world of full financialization debts are NEVER paid off only rolled into the future.”
How can people not understand this? I am certainly not a Mensa Einstein but I understand it. I understood this when I was 30. IDK…. I can’t wrap my head around this.
Its a logical outcome for variable rate mortgage holders facing huge payment increases at renewal
Then again, we all thought RE Armageddon would when occur when the BoC began raising rates aggressively in 2022.
But Freeland and the banks just stretched out the ams, averting a disaster for everyone and driving activity and prices once again.
If I was a betting man, I’d say they have something similar planned when the crisis comes back for VRM holders in 2024 & 2025
There will come a day when politicians and lawmakers will require 24/7 RCMP protection from the young.
Inequality, Outrage and Injustice fuel rebellion.
What will kill Canada’s home prices is the lack of greater fools. That may not be as far away as some think.
Interest rates are having effect. Discussion with one of my friends (home inspector). So far this spring, roughly 30% less inspections than previous couple years. This is Alberta. Not sure if vacancies are up or not. He is thinking about downsizing into Condo, from Single detached. He stated, fairly sure we’ve achieved peak house. Side note (Noticed recreational used vehicles have normalized, and dropping daily. This isn’t spring 2021).
PB43
Taking the list in order;
1) No default. A bluff by Yellen, who should be impeached. They can borrow thie own retirement funds for a year or more.
2) 500k+ immigrants/year, mostly wanting to go to YVR or GTA, will keep housing prices strong for many years to come.
3) No political turmoil in the US. Desantis takes out Trump and then whoever the Democrats put up after Biden bows out.
Intergenerational warfare keeps going, and plenty of young Canadians leaving, if balance is not restored. Need to get rid of OAS and reduce CPP contributions from the young who will never be able to collect it.
Need to raise property taxes and lower income taxes to keep the best and brightest.
#106 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.15.23 at 2:16 am
Fresh fruit and veggies are very important, especially for the elderly.
======
So for a bitt off topic here, keeping in mind that I am not endorsing a particular point of view( nor am I qualified to provide nutritional and health advice) but there is a counterargment .
You tube search – “Why plants are trying to kill you ” and “Carnivore diet” or “Ketovore Diet” .
“Junk science” or “The real deal” is up to everyone to decide on their own.
You can have 20 years of irresponsible debt orgy and then raise the rates for a few months and everything is back on track and heading for the budget balancing itself. A blip in the continuum of insane fiscal and political theatrics. I’m just glad drama teachers and history majors are so good at this.
In Canada there are no more winners or losers just eternal housing damnation. A form of punishment shared by all. Other news, the Canadian $ is still moving quickly to par with the Mexican peso. Our houses will look reasonably priced as soon as we hit par. Have a look at one year chart cad vs peso and gasp. Good measure of how Canada is really doing.
I get it. Sunshine and lollypops.
But also, Canadians are drowning in debt.
Remember, a lot of people took that 6 month mortgage holiday thing during Covid.
You’ve noted many need 70-90 amortizations today to keep their payments low. Banks have 25-33% of their mortgages in over 30 years you said.
You’ve noted how more than 50% of Canadians are $200 away from being unable to meet obligations. Well, 70% own houses, so there has to be some overlap there, yes?
Personal debt…something has to give.
One more thing, Mr. Turner, this part from today’s blog:
“We have drifted into the hellacious world of full financialization debts are NEVER paid off only rolled into the future.”
How is that a bad thing, if it lets more people get, today, what might take them years or decades to save for?
Instead of paying perpetual rent to a landlord or the company who owns your apartment, as a renter, you pay perpetual mortgage to the bank, as an owner, but get to take advantage of tax-free capital gains in the form of equity, or the leverage that accumulated equity allows.
No equity is being built with an extended-amortization mortgage, while ownership costs far exceed rental charges. Yes, it is a bad thing. – Garth
Well, I picked up some IEP at 34 today. Call it an entry fee to the games.
Carl Icahn is a downy old bird. This may not end the way many think. Stay tuned.
Over forty thousand more jobs created last month and an unemployment rate near all-time lows. – Garth
Employment rose by 41,000 (+0.2%) in April, all in part-time work. – Labour Force Survey, Released: 2023-05-05
‘This is a system that’s breaking’: Toronto food bank lineups swell as grocery prices spike – ‘Toronto Star on Sat., May 13, 2023
Draw your own conclusion!!!!!!!!!
This is the original twitter handle of conversation from Ron Butler…
Variable Mortgages, Trigger Points And 92 Year Amortizations: The Sad Truth
We get alot of comments and questions about why existing Variable Rate Mortgages which have Static Payments (Prime Rate goes up but mortgage payments don’t change) have seen their amortizations soar
We see posts on Twitter all the time showing 60 yr, 64 yr, 70 yr amortizations on screen shots of mortgage statements
Worst I saw: 92 years
How can this happen?
Simple example: back in Feb 2022 a Variable Rate Mortgage might have a 1.45% rate: payment of $2K per month
Let’s say 30 year contract amortization
$400 of the $2K payment to interest $1600 to Principal
Fast forward to now same $2K payment 5.7% Interest Rate $1975 to Interest $25 to Principal
Because so little Principal being paid the original amortization of 30 years
Can’t be met and the theoretical time needed to pay off the mortgage balloons out many years
There is also potential for the mortgage interest to EXCEED the payment and the mortgage balance starts to GROW
The Trigger Point may be when the mortgage begins to grow
Or at a specific point the mortgage grows past a specific loan to value
Bottom line is 80% of Variable Rate Mortgages DON’T fully increase payments when Prime Rate goes up
Here’s the Sad Truth part: at least 50% of these mortgage holders don’t know the eventual outcome
They don’t really understand at Renewal because 30 yr amortizations revert to 25 yr and the payments must rocket upwards even if rates are less than today
Here’s the true evil: today although the Borrower feels relieved that the high payment can has been kicked down the road
The horrible result is: giving up on the idea that a mortgage is ever paid off and to own a home outright
We have drifted into the hellacious world of full Financialization
Debts are NEVER paid off only rolled into the future
“You will own nothing and be happy”
Below is question from another twitter user..
Why must payments rise? Just because the duration is trimmed 5 years? Or, the renewal may go from 75yrs to 25 years? Lender demands a higher rate?
Ron Butler answer….
Sorry to clarify
If the original contract called for 30 yr amortization no matter what happed in the interim the Renewal amortization must be 25 yr
Glass is half full or half empty….negative or prudent….Only time will tell…
https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1658098947959803907?cxt=HHwWhsC-uamN4IIuAAAA
Garth, lately your analysis and views remind me of that Volvo C30 “Love it or Hate it” campaign about a decade ago.
“What do you think?”
https://youtu.be/BGwcGjsUHr0
(I love it)
The immigration scramble collides with the mass exodus looking forward though. The new ‘immigrants’ are mostly safe haven seekers. The vast majority will return once Ukraine needs rebuilding. Like the Syrians are doing. Very few stay. Less than 50% even qualify for Canadian citizenship.
Combine with new trends of GenZ leaving Canada for cheap housing elsewhere and Boomers leaving for health care as Canada’s collapses.
Social media is alive with new-comers stating they were mistaken to come here.
Tick Tock
Would the US debt ceiling have a spill over effect onto my Canadian government bond holdings?
The Economist April 29/23 Page 63
“Sentiment Gauges”
Consumer sentiment used as a harbinger for consumer spending….which is the biggest contributor to American GDP.
The European Bank found that “sentiment gauges” were most useful in periods of upheaval…….
The US Debt debacle? Ukraine War escalation? China vs Taiwan?
No one knows.
“The conclusion is a more frustrating one: Sentiment gauges are right just often enough to make them compelling and wrong far too frequently to make them reliable.”
“A more likely killer for Canadian real estate is what happens when all these elongated mortgages come up for renewal.”
Who’s to say when renewal time rolls around, Freeland won’t just tell the banks to be “accommodating” for another 5 (or more) years?
After all, in the states people keep the same interest rate for the length of the entire mortgage, so it wouldn’t be totally unprecedented.
Banks won’t care that they’ll be collecting interest payments in perpetuity. They’ll be like landlords, but with near-zero responsibility to their tenants.
Living the dream!
I highly doubt that they would let the default happen, but then you cannot ever count out the crazies.
Don’t forget to tell ‘ol Tiff to stick his CBDC:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/05/bank-canada-launches-public-consultations-digital-dollar/
“So those patiently waiting to buy a house at half-off may be the winners. Or, of course, the losers.”
Tsk, why be so negative?
Although they might not get what they hope for (a house at half-off), they cannot possibly lose by NOT buying an over-priced home that would only put debt shackles on them and rob them of their night’s sleep.
People think mass immigration will save home prices. What I don’t understand is that say a doctor can’t afford a house in Van, TO or Victoria (many can’t) why would someone coming from another country to be a doctor (we certainly need doctors) be able to afford a house?
In Victoria the benchmark price of a very boring standard housing is 1.2 million. It is calculated a family needs an income of $220,000 a year just to get financing for said house. The median family income in Victoria is $60,000 after taxes.
Is every immigrant coming to Canada – doctors, nurses, plumbers, masons etc super rich for some reason and can afford to buy a house that is 11 times the average salary?
So if immigration is going to keep real estate elevated are the powers that be only going to let highly paid immigrants in. If you don’t make $220,000 a year as a household income no immigration for you! LOL.
How much does a Immigration make in Canada?
$57,267
/ Annual
Based on 927 salaries
The average immigration salary in Canada is $57,267 per year or $29.37 per hour. Entry-level positions start at $43,875 per year, while most experienced workers make up to $97,690 per year.
Median
$57,267
chart
Low
$43,875
High
$97,690
Immigration: salaries per region
Manitoba
$78,990
Nova Scotia
$76,235
Quebec
$73,184
New Brunswick
$64,766
Ontario
$58,500
British Columbia
$57,483
Alberta
$52,650
Saskatchewan
$45,000
Related salaries
Legal Counsel
$185,617
Counsel
$185,583
Lawyer
$166,197
Partner
$90,776
Based on 4513 salaries
You can have 20 years of irresponsible debt orgy and then raise the rates for a few months and everything is back on track and heading for the budget balancing itself. A blip in the continuum of insane fiscal and political theatrics. I’m just glad drama teachers and history majors are so good at this.
There will be another correction in real estate, but it might be 5 years away. This one is over. As expected, the end result is now higher prices coupled with higher carrying costs and affordability gutted. The only people impacted by the rate hike cycle were flippers who bought in early 2022 and wanted to make a quick buck. Everyone else either has a fixed mortgage and is sound asleep or is doing their best to absorb the increased costs until the prime rate falls (likely early next year). Canadians don’t default. Our market is far different than the one down south so any comparisons are moot.
For all those looking to buy on the sidelines, it was obvious the time was to buy last January when the news and sentiment was all negative. Those instances are always bottoms (for both stocks and real estate). Like usual social media also had no resemblance to reality. You buy real estate when you can afford to.
Regarding the debt ceiling. Yes of course an 11th hour deal will be struck. It’s just sad to see what the Republican Party has become and what they are resorting to. Worrying about spending is a clover ploy because it elicits a personal emotional reaction in a lot of people (hey that’s my money they are spending!). The US government will be fine. There may be a small stock sale though for those looking to nibble. Day traders will be happy.
IDK
Don’t hold your breath for another housing downturn, the Liberals do not want a housing crash with hundreds of thousands (over a million?) home owners forced to sell at renewal. If it stops people from being forced to sell, I can see the government allowing 30 year or 40 year mortgages, even temporarily.
Rentals are also at nose bleed prices and many people competing for limited rentals. Most people who rent cannot afford to buy houses at these crazy prices, so its irrelevant to state that renters are saving over home owners. Many renters have no choice but to rent, they are not saving anything because there’s nothing left at the end of the month to save.
If there is a tidal wave of home owners who are forced to sell, what will that do to the already tight rental market? Those with the larger incomes will drive out those at the lower end. This is trickle down economics.
The tide is out, many are swimming naked, but our almighty governments are doing anything they can to censor this!!!
Based on the grass and sky I’ll take a wild guess that Nathan’s vicious beast lives somewhere in the prairies. Okotoks for the bullseye guess. —
@#8 Victoria on 05.15.23 at 3:34 pm- ‘How can people not understand this? I am certainly not a Mensa Einstein but I understand it. I understood this when I was 30. IDK…. I can’t wrap my head around this.’—-
Vicky, look no further than post #1 & #18 for your answer and for understanding how we got here. He writes: ‘How is that a bad thing, if it lets more people get, today, what might take them years or decades to save for?’ Where is that old curmudgeon blog dog “Chaos” who in 2019 posted ” At the peak of a debt cycle, all efforts are directed towards increasing the debt, because there is no painless way down… All efforts must be deployed to delay it as long as possible…”. Maybe Freeland was reading the blog that day. +++
A ‘within boundaries’ pervue of Calgary shows 3475 current listings. 46% are condos/townhomes/multi, duplexes excluded as they are usually high end infill developments, more like detached. More than 25% of the listings are priced over 800,000. Maybe peeps cashing out after the long drought that began in 2016.
Almost 16% are listed at over one million and quite a few rental apartments. It smells a bit like an exodus to me, and this is just little Calgary on the prairies. Time is of the essence. Follow the smart money. +++
great post Garth. I am on the side that things will get worse before it gets better. I don’t think it’s going to get that bad, but it can’t last like this. After 2025 should be the roaring twenties, when trump is elected in the states, and Pierre is elected in Canada. By the way, I don’t look at the person, I look at the policies. Both have the policies to make the economy BOOM
What could go wrong?
A hawk could nap that dawg!
I fail to see how extending YOUR mortgage will affect ME. Whether you take an additional 5 or 10 years to pay it off matters not to me. It just means one less toy that you can buy … and a whole lot more income for my bank stocks so I can buy the toy you wanted.
Well, still fascinated with those amortization durations being extended. I think my attention to this is the psychological effect of watering down initial terms.
That is unheard of in Canada by a chartered bank I believe for a reason.
Have the renewal terms been set to 25 years and outstanding principal not paid owed upon renewal as per current rules? Has that been confirmed by the regulator?
If the banks allow inflated amortizations and negate principal payment upon renewal then all integrity and discipline of loan repayment is lost by precedent set by the lender.
I mean, do whatever you want these guys won’t do anything but accommodate you. Pay as you please.
If you are a 30-35 year old couple wanting a house then demand the same terms.
See the real risk?
I think the looming AI revolution is more than a fad.
I think we’re seeing/seen peak office. I don’t think office jobs are going to be a future growth area.
By the time they finish the Ontario Line. A significant component of those tower jobs could have disappeared.
A more likely killer for Canadian real estate is what happens when all these elongated mortgages come up for renewal.
————-
I wonder what policy/regulatory options the federal government might use to avert defaults from renewals of mortgages?
Will we see 40-50 year amortization renewal options. Why not? Afterall it’s all about keep the house of cards real estate market a float.
Would it be possible to delay renewals for 1-2 years and just add the cost of this to the mortgage balance?
Could the federal government just prohibit banks from foreclosing? This may play well in Canada but internationally be seen as unfairly targeting private industry.
Could the government regulate renewal mortgage rates? This heavy handed solution seems unlikely but we have seen no end if unlikely things coming to be over the past decade.
Anything will be on the table. The thought process for the politicians will not be about making good policy but doing whatever it takes to keep the party going.
#34 “Don’t hold your breath for another housing downturn, the Liberals do not want a housing crash with hundreds of thousands (over a million?) home owners forced to sell at renewal. If it stops people from being forced to sell, I can see the government allowing 30 year or 40 year mortgages, even temporarily.”
—————————————————————-
Well sure the Mensa candidates in the Liberal Party will simply wave their magic wand. Given their steady hand on all things financial what could possibly go wrong?
One thinks back to the PIIGS, the US, and the RE debacles they couldn’t control it is unlikely a highly indebted small country that has demonstrated fiscal profligacy in such a careless fashion will in any position to do anything.
Congress Saber-Rattling in full-affect…
All for nothing.
They can make funny money out of thin air and raise their own credit card limit.
So whats the big deal?
Played 18 with nice guys today (Monday), all masters of their world. No debt retired all in their late 50’s and consumer debt and Justin is the topic of our round of golf!
#1 Consumer debt is just crazy.
#2 No more PMs from Quebec.
#3 25 year mortgages is the max in Canada.
#4 NFLD is oil and Hydro rich and why are they kind
broke?
I hope next week is just as interesting. I had a great Monday!
Lifesaving tip: forearms
The inlaw side of our fam is full of folks in the medical field. During short sleeve summers, they are always irresistibly drawn to my pullup forearms and fantasize about turning them into pincushions. Apparently, elusive veins are a real issue in their line of work and can hinder care, especially in an emergency.
Moral of the story: Do pullups. Live longer.
So Garth, is America too big too fail? Do you believe that America will be able to kick the can down the road forever?
That country is an absolute mess and a cleansing correction would wake a lot of people up down there… and actually make the country stronger. Problem is, no one wants short term pain for long term gain.
Has anyone hired workers for repairs on their home? Notice they want a lot more money per day and work 6 or less hours per day? (i.e. more money, less work).
The system has broke. It’s a matter of time that it collapses.
Argentina Central Bank just raised interest rates 600 pts to 97% . Year over year inflation rate is 100% . Ouch!
Seeing lots of high end homes being sold over asking lately. Shocked to see a couple go nearly a million over assessment. This is in Vancouver, the assessments were set based on prices last July……I thought they were high currently but apparently some people are willing to pay lots to live here.
Long bank amortizations of 30, 50 or 90 years?
Just another clever tactic to keep you thinking you “own” it when in fact you will be a renter in disguise.
Prime Minister Pierre Polyester will save us and ensure our freedumb from reality.
#47 canuck on 05.15.23 at 6:23 pm
So Garth, is America too big too fail? Do you believe that America will be able to kick the can down the road forever?
That country is an absolute mess and a cleansing correction would wake a lot of people up down there… and actually make the country stronger.
—————
Believe nothing that you hear and 1/2 of what you see. America is just fine. Also… visit Twitter for context.
@#49 Craig
Argentina is in a whole different world of pain but eventually “the budget will balance it’s self….”
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/country-beggars-argentines-reel-104-inflation-keeps-rising-2023-05-12/
Garth et al:
It was once explained to me. We are all playing a game. The game is rigged. We don’t know what they are planning, nor who exactly is the rigger. But it appears that “They” are controlling it. Up Down Left Right…etc.
No debt ceiling issues, they have always waited till the last nano second to solve the issue. Oh the fear!
They have stabilized the markets with money printing and bailing out with infinite, electronic dollars, all the really rich people at Silicon Valley Bank. The rich people complained, the government gave in.
Money is digital now. THEY, can add as much as THEY want, and take as much as they want too. We don’t control the game, so we can play along, until we get burned if we are not smart enough.
We all need to heed the advice of Garth. He is a smart Dude watching out for us, when no one else gives a rat’s butt.
If I had done some of the stuff he recommended, I might not be eating cat food soon.
Wood workers/ finish carpenters get $17 an hour on a part time basis according to my experience and that is ones with 40+ years experience. That sort of thing is what Canada’s labor market is all about. Right out of a Charles Dickens story.
@ #34 Foggy
Renters are able to rent less. That’s what we’re doing instead of cutting retirement savings (which are line item #1)
Back underground, renting a shitty basement suite with shared laundry for $2k/month (because that’s or budget
@#31 Victoria
“The average immigration salary in Canada is $57,267 per year or $29.37 per hour. Entry-level positions start at $43,875 per year.
++++
I was contacted by a govt agency to possibly look at hiring “temporary foreign workers”.
The bare bones of it.
I had to guarantee a 2 year contract @$26 hour (49k/year)
After watching the Spanish speaking kids( Mexico? Central America? Doesnt matter…) working for the last 1.5 years on the outside of my residence pressure washing, repatching and now painting……
A job that I used to do at their age in 3 months max…..
But now will take 2 years because that’s the work visa requirement…?
I declined the “generous” offer from Mr Govt Agency Man.
The last decade or so has been the eye of the storm. We are now starting to head into the, much anticipated, once-in-a-lifetime transition away from the ‘Age of Easy Money’. It will hurt, but we will be better off at the other end.
Money For Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve – Making the Hard Choice
https://odysee.com/Money_For_Nothing_Making_the_Hard_Choice:3
Clip from the prophetic 2014 documentary by Liberty St Films.
@#56 Steve-O
“Wood workers/ finish carpenters get $17 an hour on a part time basis according to my experience and that is ones with 40+ years experience.”
++++
Really?
What planet is this on?
$17 dollars and hour and they are journeyman carpenters with 40 years experience?
Are they blind and missing all their fingers?
IF you are lucky enough to find a journeyman carpenter with 40 years experience….he wouldn’t let you wipe his bum if you paid him $17 ……..a minute.
Looking more likely existing owners who kicked the can down the road will be fine as by the time they have to renew their hour prices would be at a new high again
Ok guys, here’s a plan. If your making under $50,000 in Gta or B. C. your’re basically screwed if renting. Get your class 3 or 1 or in the trades and work in Alberta for 4 to 6 months . Do camp jobs for maximum money and save and contribute for monthly income etf for the tfsa. Don’t get married or have children, that is so yesterday. Child support and divorce is cancer causing.
Now live in Huatulco or Lake Atitlan for the rest of the year. I also love Southeast Asia. Under $1400 a month to live comfortably. Don’t be a debt or tax slave ,its a dead end way of life. Life is to short, live to the fullest.
Absolutely BRILLIANT!
The BC NDP spent millions of dollars and Court time to CLOSE DOWN private clinics in BC….
Now?
The Bc NDP has announced they are sending up to 2400 patients a year to the US for cancer treatment.
All expenses paid, hotels, meals, family will be paid to attend
The next story on the 6pm News?
Govt supplied pills for drug addicts to “avoid street drugs” are…..selling the free pills on the street so they can buy…..Fentanyl……
Millions of tax dollars squandered to show the socialist way is better.
this was the plan all along. Get everyone deep in debt and then jack rates to trap them. extending amorts is tightening the noose … but they don’t want to kill their customers. life long / multigenerational debt slavery is the goal.
I love my huge silver doorstop more everyday…..
“Deposits in foreign offices of U.S. banks are not insured by the FDIC. ……”
Here —> https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/05/fdic-seizure-of-foreign-deposits-at-svb-opens-pandoras-box-at-jpmorgan-chase-and-citi-which-hold-a-combined-1-trillion-in-foreign-deposits-with-no-fdic-insurance/
Garth, What about Canada banks. Same with CDIC?
Why would idiots buy in British Columbia when Seattle is so much cheaper?
https://www.newhomesource.com/communities/wa/seattle-bellevue-area?pricehigh=800000#refer=gppc106&gclid=Cj0KCQjwsIejBhDOARIsANYqkD3ULxKpGcMaECd1FsrZ7894Hsr32ocEAKx8EMfdm9NAsyq-aMQk5Z0aAlHyEALw_wcB
Settle Down about the long amortizations
As far as I can tell, there was nothing arbitrary about the banks so-called extending the amortizations. In fact as far as I can tell, the banks did nothing. They are merely keeping the payments on variable rate mortgages fixed which is what was agreed at the outset.
As far as I can tell the so-called trigger rate is no trigger at all. A misnomer. NOTHING is or was set to happen until those mortgages renew in most cases. Right?
If the contract says the mortgage payment stays fixed even when it fails to cover interest then that’s the deal. The banks are not in these cases doing anything other than following the mortgage contracts.
Yes there are no-doubt cases where renewal has come up and the banks are being lenient. But that is not what is happening in most cases. In most cases the mortgages simply are not up yet for renewal. Of course when they are up, yes, sh*t may hit the fan. (Hope it’s not chicken sh*t, that stuff is particularly vile).
These negative amortization mortgages are surely a bad thing. But the idea that they mostly relate to banks changing mortgage terms in fake news I do believe. TIt was just math that did it.
Am I wrong? I have been trying to find out how this works. Educate me.
Chill and wait for the Q2 bank reports. Hopefully they will explain this a bit better and we may see that a good number of those long amorts have come back onside. WHY? lower rates and some people will surely increase their payments voluntarily.
#9 Waystar Royco Shareholder on 05.15.23 at 3:35 pm
Its a logical outcome for variable rate mortgage holders facing huge payment increases at renewal
–SNIP–
If I was a betting man, I’d say they have something similar planned when the crisis comes back for VRM holders in 2024 & 2025
=======================================
It’s actually quite a smart move on the Government’s part. If they hadn’t extended AMs, a large bunch of people would have gone bust all at the same time when rates spiked.
Now, almost the same number of people will go bust over a 5 year period instead. This will cushion the blow and help us avoid a deep recession.
@#66 Vlad
My heart weeps for foreign depositors with uninsured FDIC Cayman Island accounts….
Cayman Banks aren’t known for their following of US tax rules….
As for the rest of the foreign deposits squirreled away around the world in US Bank Foreign accounts…….you dont vote in US elections…..so you dont count.
Its as simple as that.
Only the good die young:
Deb Hope, former Global BC anchor and reporter, passes away
Deb Hope, a former anchor and reporter at Global BC, has died at the age of 67.
For two generations, Hope was one of the most iconic faces in B.
She read the news at noon, 5 p.m., and, eventually, BCTV’s top-rated flagship 6 p.m. broadcast, usually alongside Tony Parsons.
She also had one of the most famous laughs anywhere.
Hope retired in 2014, and was then diagnosed with Alzheimer’s, which eventually led to her living in a nursing home.
She no longer recognized her husband, Roger, daughters Katherine and Roxanne, or any other family members.
Former meteorologist and colleague, Wayne Cox, told Global News Monday it was a “sad day” for the Global and BCTV families.
“Deb was such a professional,” he said. “She was probably the hardest-working person in the entire newsroom when I worked with her. Also, when I worked with her, it was the laugh, and the smile, and those eyes of hers. She was a remarkable person.”
Cox said Tony Parsons once said that Hope was the best audience anyone could ever have as she did not hide her emotions.
© 2023 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
Debt ceiling? Why are you people even chattering about this non-factor?
Do you seriously think America can default on its debt and not burn down the entire global financial system which is constructed on their promise to make interest payments on their T-bills?
The debt ceiling mumbo jumbo is nothing but pig slop, meant for the retail livestock “investors” to eat from the trough of mass media, while the algorithms harvest their souls.
#55 Mike
What are you going on about? The debt ceiling crisis is not a joke. It is different than 2011 . I have actually listened to my spouse and now see that Trump, Marjorie Taylor Greene and the MAGA nuts are truly dangerous. I never thought I’d say this. Read the Washington Post to see more clearly. As an aside, there is a reason our spouses are our best friends , for which I am truly thankful. We have made major defensive adjustments to our portfolio with our financial advisor’s agreement . We are in the 5% , retired, and are not interested in a Thelma and Louise outcome.
#58 Mr. Fartzy: Theres government agency & then theres real life agency. The real world agency gives you 100k in the currency & bank of the country of your choice. Then you fulfil the government part by guaranteeing the future Canadian citizen a job for 2 or 3 years at minimum wage. Of course the 100 k is negotiable. That 100k is a 12 years old real life price. Factoring inflation probably 200k to buy citizenship would be the going rate I’d guess. I do believe the biggest industry in Canada is the immigration industry. Figure it out. 1 million legit plus another 400k off the books is 1.4 mil x ?=mucho $.
70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.15.23 at 11:19 pm
@#66 Vlad
My heart weeps for foreign depositors with uninsured FDIC Cayman Island accounts….
Cayman Banks aren’t known for their following of US tax rules….
As for the rest of the foreign deposits squirreled away around the world in US Bank Foreign accounts…….you dont vote in US elections…..so you dont count.
Its as simple as that.
@@@@@
When I went overseas on my second go around I did non resident status and opened a Cayman Island account. It was legit and convenient but the downside was it never made any investment gains. I believe I got about 2% interest. I opened the account remote from Kingston Jamaica and it was probably 5 years later before I actually went to Grand Cayman , touched some brick and met my banker. It was early internet days and I was a bit nervous. I established a relationship with her that day and it turned out fine. No more angst. I never returned to George Town again and closed the account 10 years later.
You know those videos of a weeks old kitten who sees something completely harmless like a grasshopper or a turtle, gets scared; gets puffy and hisses and it kind of breaks your heart how cute and pathetic it is? Sail Away’s recent spate of security camera and veiny arm comments reminds me of that. Well, equal parts that and monkey on meth. Sure threw a lot of shite around past couple days.
Nathan here, and this is my vicious beast!
Garth you will be happy to know I am alive and well and have not been consumed by my dog.
#36 – the Jaguar
Very close!!! Sherwood park, Alberta. Okotoks was a pretty good guess!
Been reading your blog for years, I appreciate the great articles.
#73 SK on 05.15.23 at 11:53 pm
I have actually listened to my spouse and now see that Trump, Marjorie Taylor Greene and the MAGA nuts are truly dangerous. I never thought I’d say this
_____________________________________
You should do public speaking events to right the wrong your previous opinions spread.
What’s his all about?
Could the government fiddle with rates on these bonds to benefit borrowers? Sound like it’s a possible play.
>>>
Bay Street bond dealers and investors are raising concerns about a proposed change to Canada’s housing finance system that would transform the $260-billion Canada Mortgage Bonds market and see the federal government financing a significant portion of the country’s mortgage lending out of its own borrowing.
In the federal budget, published in March, the government proposed consolidating Canada Mortgage Bonds (CMB) into the government’s general debt program. CMB are issued by an arm of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, a Crown corporation, which uses the proceeds to help finance private mortgage lenders.
By bringing the CMB program in-house, the Department of Finance is hoping to eke out some additional revenue, which it says could help fund affordable housing initiatives.
Despite being guaranteed by the federal government, CMB are sold to investors at a slightly higher interest rate than Government of Canada bonds. Ottawa sees that difference, or spread, as money left on the table, waiting to be captured.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-mortgage-bond-proposal/
134 Tim in Moncton on 05.15.23 at 3:44 pm
Sorry, clarifying my earlier post: The high-density urban dwellers who are less likely to drive, impose WAY less cost on general infrastructure (not just the 20m of street in front of their building, but also because you’re not building expressways and road widenings and spreading everything out ever further to make room for their cars.)
The enshrining of car dependent built form has triggered a vicious circle where the only way to make room for all the cars is to spread everything out more, which requires more driving and more traffic, which requires wider and longer roads, which makes it harder to provide transit at any price or walk anywhere, which means more cars…. There’s plenty of blame to go around here, but the “profligate spending” by municipalities is to cover the costs incurred decades ago, not because of anything they’ve done recently.
———————
Totally agree.
Welcome back, Shawn.
Re: #67 Seattle or Bust on 05.15.23 at 10:30 pm
Why would idiots buy in British Columbia when Seattle is so much cheaper?
Because, unfortunately, you can’t just move to the US! If you could i’d be gone in a heartbeat. Trying to convince the wife to sell our home, buy a business in the US and move there.
#68 Shawn on 05.15.23 at 10:35 pm
Settle Down about the long amortizations
As far as I can tell, there was nothing arbitrary about the banks so-called extending the amortizations. In fact as far as I can tell, the banks did nothing. They are merely keeping the payments on variable rate mortgages fixed which is what was agreed at the outset.
As far as I can tell the so-called trigger rate is no trigger at all. A misnomer. NOTHING is or was set to happen until those mortgages renew in most cases. Right?
____________
Shawn, I think you are 100% correct. Garth posted multiple times earlier that the last thing the banks AND the home owners want is to lose the house.
I think the reason he continues to bring this issue up over and over is because the government did tell the banks to be flexible and he hates government intervention. But did it have a real impact? I don’t think so either and I can see no proof that it did. A few hundred less distress sales. No big deal.
When over a third of all bank mortgage portfolios have extended amortizations we are not talking about “a few hundred” fewer potential listings. I would put it closer to a hundred thousand with, yes, a major market impact. – Garth
@#77 Nathan
“Very close!!! Sherwood park, Alberta. Okotoks was a pretty good guess!”
++++
Been to both spots.
I liked Okotoks better.
Totally off subject.
Hows the smoke from the Forest Fires?
Did I say 2400 patients a year being shipped from BC to the US for cancer treatment?
Pffft
Double that.
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2023/05/15/bc-cancer-patients-us/
The geniuses in the NDP govt spent several years harassing private clinics in Court and then legislated them in BC…… out of business.
So that the NDP can now spend millions in tax dollars to private medical facilities….in the US.
Brilliant.
Inflation rose to 4.4 per cent in April, Statistics Canada says
https://apple.news/AtqUiuHxsTm-8rm6wc-oCxg
My wrong day :)
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
—-
A reminder that our Rulers no longer work for us.
You hint was, that in March 2020 new condo construction never was shut down.
The Long Game lads, learn how it is played.
We are living in an open air Tax Slave farm, our elected Rulers exist to factory farm us, more stalls needed. Uppa up.
https://www.cp24.com/news/it-s-devastating-ford-government-slammed-for-doubling-size-of-mississauga-development-1.6398913
Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie is speaking out after the Ford government used a controversial zoning tool to add thousands of units to a new development planned for the city’s Lakeview neighbourhood.
On Friday afternoon, the province issued two ministerial zoning orders (MZO’s) impacting developments currently underway in Mississauga.
One of the orders will allow the size of a new mixed-used community planned for Lakeshore and Dixie roads to effectively double, from approximately 8,000 to 16,000 units.
The other order will fast-track development on two parcels of land at 3355 and 5645 Hurontario Street.
A staff report that was to be tabled at that meeting warned of a number of “significant concerns” around adding units to the development, including “insufficient” road and school capacity and the undermining of a years-long planning process
#134 Tim in Moncton on 05.15.23 at 3:44 pm
^I doubt it. Most of municipal taxation goes toward the Gold Plated salaries and benefits of the employees. It’s why we are broke. Federal hiring spree is untamed. Enshrined, untouchable. Just join The Party.
Cars are a red herring.
Conveniently you forget the pay-to-play fees levies upon the drivers. While you wer hand-wring.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_fuel_taxes_in_Canada
The federal taxes go into general coffers and help to fund a range of programs: $2 billion of the approximately $5 billion collected from federal excise taxes goes into the now permanent annual Gas Tax Fund for municipal infrastructure. Provincial tax revenues usually go to fund road repair and construction, and additionally in some provinces a portion of revenues (for example, 2 cents/litre in Ontario) is also distributed directly to municipalities
Unless Trudeau and Singh embrace nuclear energy on a path to Net Zero they are not part of the adult conversation. They are merely screaming and pouting pre-adolescent Math Deniers. Because they don’t want to put in the work to understand the math, they think it isn’t important.
Without the intellectual rigors imposed by the study of math all kinds of stupid and damaging ideas look great. Just ask Greta and Al Gore. Both Math Deniers par excellence.
Energy poverty is the greatest threat to society. Not global warming, not war, not pandemics. Cheap, reliable, abundant clean energy is needed to re-build the middle class. Denying the math is idiocy.
At least the Finns get the math. They just fired up a nuclear plant and cut the hydro bills by 75%. Math Deniers can’t do that.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/newly-launched-finnish-nuclear-plant-sees-electricity-prices-plunge-75
@#31 Victoria
Salaries for immigrants are as you’ve described. Need to also account for the assets they’re bringing with them. My anecdotal estimate is that ~10% come to Canada with $250k+, which is a downpayment in most cities.
@#73 SK
“I have actually listened to my spouse and now see that Trump, Marjorie Taylor Greene and the MAGA nuts are truly dangerous.”
+++
Did the smoke from the forest fires clear your mind?
What could go wrong?
Murphy’s Law is always waiting in the wings, ready to be invoked.
Never underestimate the power of doom.
Oh oh….break out the Valium for Mr. Market. Inflation up unexpectedly this morning.
Wildfire smoke in Calgary brutal this morning. Special Weather statement issued, but winds expected to change direction tomorrow with improvement by Wednesday.
Nathan, keep the beast indoors as much as possible…
#87 TurnerNation on 05.16.23 at 8:48 am
My wrong day :)
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
—-
A reminder that our Rulers no longer work for us.
You hint was, that in March 2020 new condo construction never was shut down.
The Long Game lads, learn how it is played.
———————————
Haha.
When did Rulers ever work for us?
#89 Math Deniers on 05.16.23 at 9:11 am
Unless Trudeau and Singh embrace nuclear energy on a path to Net Zero they are not part of the adult conversation. They are merely screaming and pouting pre-adolescent Math Deniers. Because they don’t want to put in the work to understand the math, they think it isn’t important.
Without the intellectual rigors imposed by the study of math all kinds of stupid and damaging ideas look great. Just ask Greta and Al Gore. Both Math Deniers par excellence.
Energy poverty is the greatest threat to society. Not global warming, not war, not pandemics. Cheap, reliable, abundant clean energy is needed to re-build the middle class. Denying the math is idiocy.
At least the Finns get the math. They just fired up a nuclear plant and cut the hydro bills by 75%. Math Deniers can’t do that.
————————-
I guess Germany, birthplace of Einstein and Leibniz can’t do the math.
They just shut down their last reactors.
One size does not fit all.
Inflation up , train coming off the tracks . Canadas government approved property pyramid play coming nearer an ending .
More hikes coming as inflation is rising again. We will be forced to keep up with the U.S Fed. Canada can only pray the U.S lowers rates at some point. 100 year mortgages? How much policy ammo is left?
#86 Victor V on 05.16.23 at 8:46 am
Inflation rose to 4.4 per cent in April, Statistics Canada says
https://apple.news/AtqUiuHxsTm-8rm6wc-oCxg
—
And MOM CPI was 0.7% which annualizes north of an 8% rate. MOM is noisy, so lets hope it’s a blip.
Brought on by their own government. Disgusting!
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/sunday-feature-evictions
@#88 Turner Nation
“Most of municipal taxation goes toward the Gold Plated salaries and benefits of the employees. It’s why we are broke. ”
+++
Yep.
Vancouver PARKS board Commissioner…..
A PARKS board commissioner ….
Just resigned with no explanation given.
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2023/05/15/vancouver-donnie-rosa-park-board/
I choked on my dinner when they announced her salary as ” ……….they resigned from a $290,000 per year position as the head of the Parks Board…..”
A political appointment that a banana tossing, poo flinging monkey could do.
Not sure how the inflation number can be seen as positive. It is clearly entrenched, and as some of predicted will likely grow through Spring as fuel costs increase. And 4 on a 8 baseline, and 4 before that is wiping out returns on financial assets.
Inflation is a huge threat to safe portfolios that yield sub 6% returns. Would love to see a post on how an investor outgrows inflation in a time like this. Considering how bad 2022 was for most + 15-20 % total inflation over the period, returns are in GFC territory today.
Rates will have to increase.
FORTUNE: Elon Musk is the latest billionaire subpoenaed in a lawsuit over JPMorgan’s ties to sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein
Apparently had trouble finding Musk despite ya nerfs claiming he basically lives at twitter HQ.
Musk also attacking George Soros and engaging with vile antisemites.
Musk also squelched free speech in Turkey at the behest of Erdoğan.
#19 sail away
Interesting pick. I wasn’t familiar with IEP so looked it up. Interesting choice. Seems the price dropped due to speculation on its dividend paying strategy/ability. So how do you see this playing out that makes you buy in? Seems the dividend is now in the area of 22%. Something has to give, no?
A father and son stabbed in Surrey Memorial Hospital Emergency Waiting room last Sat night and two suspects arrested….
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2023/05/16/surrey-memorial-hospital-emergency-doctors-letter/
Surrey ER doctors complaining bitterly about Health Care in the city .
While
Surrey RCMP and Surrey police still battling it out to see who ultimately “wins” control at a cost of millions to send either force packing…..
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/surrey-police-report-cost
A shiny new Surrey City Hall completed several years for $100 million…
Priorities….
#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.15.23 at 11:31 pm
Only the good die young:
===============================
COMMENT:
Happy 666 th Ponzie !!!
Well, inflation is growing again.
I guess the whole “Tiff has things under control” narrative was nonsense….as anyone who can remember as far back as the 70s could have predicted.
The difference now is that the government doesn’t care if to cripples the economy for future generations.
I don’t know, at this point, if resolution of the debt ceiling issue is going to save face in the USA, or not.
The USA is currently split into two fundamentalist camps. On the one side, you have the Democrats, sworn to uphold the “great reset” and the “new normal” no matter the cost. Loyal to what amounts to a globalist aristocracy, pushing forward with a radical plan to re-make the USA as what looks like a socialist corporate-ocracy directed from outside of the country.
On the other side, you have the “burn it all down” Trump supporters. The USA is corrupt, they say. The deep state must be torn out, at all costs to the country and the people who live in it. The conspiracy theorists. The nut jobs. Crazy fundamentalists. Anti democratic. Willing to use violence to obtain power.
These two camps are going to come together and try to work out a way for the USA to be able to borrow more money.
If they cannot, the USA defaults.
What is becoming abundantly clear to all those observing this ongoing theater show, is that the USA, the world’s most powerful country, the home of the global reserve currency, the leader of the free world, cannot pay even the interest on its debt, without borrowing money.
The global reserve currency floats on an ocean of debt. The world’s most powerful military relies on outside financing to remain financially viable. The world’s most powerful country, cannot function without going further and further into debt.
This realization is scary. It is like watching your neighbour, who you have watched purchase a cottage, a boat, shiny new Teslas and endless renovations, line up at the bank to try to convince the folks there to extend his credit line, so that he doesn’t have to declare bankruptcy tomorrow.
The emperor has no clothes here. People are starting to see it.
#103 wishbone on 05.16.23 at 11:45 am
#19 sail away
Interesting pick. I wasn’t familiar with IEP so looked it up. Interesting choice. Seems the price dropped due to speculation on its dividend paying strategy/ability. So how do you see this playing out that makes you buy in? Seems the dividend is now in the area of 22%. Something has to give, no?
—————
Well. It is a battle between the short seller Hindenburg and Icahn. H wrote a hit piece which caused major price upheaval. Icahn struck back with $1B buyback and 5% dividend that any shorts still short on Friday will have to pay.
22% div is high, of course, but IEP has paid 13-16% for years and years and recent very high yield is partially a function of price drop. Icahn owns the majority of stock and takes div as stock, so the payments are only to a small portion of total holders. Sort of similar to preferred stock in many ways.
I can see 20% capital increase plus 20% div over the next year. Something else could also happen. Let’s see!
Inflation jumps to 4.4% and is here to stay.
RE is an Inflation hedge even if your not building much equity.
Headlines
Average Canada home price is up more than $100,000 since January..
Try and save that.
Garth, there may be a crisis here among the deplorables.
So far, out of 105 comments, I count only 11 by crowdedescalatorfecalmatterdude.
That’s barely over 10% of all, by a dude who clearly has a fragile ego in need of constant attention. What’s holding back his narcisssism today? I am concerned!
crowdie, if you’re having a bad day, please reach out for help right away. Of course this blog is all about you and your brilliant opinions and judgmental comments. You deserve a participation award EVERY SINGLE DAY!
Uppa she goes! No surprise that inflation up-ticks as housing costs rise. Therefore, Jun 7 likely has Tiff rising rates again. Maybe .5
Garth called rates to drop by year’s end. Then claimed inflation is sooo done and no rate drops until sometime ‘24. See what he says today.
I suggest less ‘forward guidance’ /wishful thinking to help reduce groans from below deck.
Inflation went from 4.3 to 4.4. And you get excited? BTW the forecast of a rate drop by Dec is a market call. – Garth
#135 TurnerNation on 05.16.23 at 8:40 am
in March 2020 new condo construction never was shut down
Oops, fumbled the formatting. LOL
#110 James on 05.16.23 at 12:56 pm
Garth, there may be a crisis here among the deplorables.
So far, out of 105 comments, I count only 11 by crowdedescalatorfecalmatterdude.
That’s barely over 10% of all, by a dude who clearly has a fragile ego in need of constant attention. What’s holding back his narcisssism today? I am concerned!
crowdie, if you’re having a bad day, please reach out for help right away. Of course this blog is all about you and your brilliant opinions and judgmental comments. You deserve a participation award EVERY SINGLE DAY!
—————
And yet… all of Crowdie’s comments are much better and far preferable to your mean-spirited one.
But then, you also did a victory dance on Smoking Man’s grave, so hey.
“Here’s the true evil: today although the borrower feels relieved that the high payment can has been kicked down the road, the horrible result is giving up on the idea that a mortgage is ever paid off and to own a home outright. We have drifted into the hellacious world of full financialization debts are NEVER paid off only rolled into the future.”
Spot on. Not only is this sick and now ingrained conviction the mindset of mortgage holders and consumer debt slaves, it bleeds through to mundane, every day purchases and stuff we don´t really need.
Installment plan on a (yet another) pair of runners anyone?
The Canadian people are so brainwashed and stupid. The CB will change the inflation rate target will be 3.5% or 4% even though its double. Get out of stock market before June 1 . Its all planned, they’ll tank the the market so they can short it and go long just before they make a deal. Crisis after crisis which they create and then they’ll find a solution. Any one with half a brain knew they kept interests rates to low for to long. Ask yourself why ?
No need to panic folks, our trusty regulators will likely end up loading weight (capital/debt) on the other side of the ownership equation.
Mortgage interest deduction against personal income and real property repair, remediation and green tax schemes/incentives, anything to create balance on the way to even higher prices.
Garth…Because Steve & squeeze spent a few days shy of six months in their YVR box,
***********
It’s funny to read their explanations, because here everything is described in details —>
https://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/evidence-exemptions.aspx#redirect
I remembered the contents of one poster about the rules for using a seat belt in a car when I came to update my drive license in Service Canada office.
Among other details, about the rules for using the belt, it was written that I did not know:
“You must wear your seat belt EVEN if you are moving from one parking space to another.”
And at the end of the whole text about seat belt rules:
We don’t accept any apologies. Over the years, we’ve heard all kinds of excuses from you.
Similarly, with this tax – in a couple of years, tons of apologies will accumulate, and this despite the fact that the rules are simple and understandable even to a horse.
Gentlemen’s (and Ladies of course!) – do not even try to deceive the state or the tax revenue agency. Just pay your taxes and sleep well.
Garth can subscribe to these words (even though he doesn’t love me!).
This whole FINE World shift? Nuttery Politics may well give Trump a bone to pick. He is already starting with the ‘I will solve the Ukraine issue’ etc. The idea that Trump is even still in the race is telling and sad. Biden hasn’t bought the home the bacon and is suffering in low ratings among other things.
Never ever give a born ‘business man’ a bone to pick that will resonate with Americans and stir Nationalism. At this point, I can see Trump making it back to the Oval Office. American Industry, American jobs, American Security, American Lives!
aka ‘Vote for Uncle Trump’.
Trump is promising to release Kennedy Assassinations files if elected. Wait till he brings in more deep state mantra. Interesting Times.
You are right, the tax on empty house is an arbitrary Robin Hood type tax. I wonder if you are a government person and go to work abroad for 7 months you pay that tax. I guess not. But if you are not government I guess you do… The fact that as a (dual) citizen you cannot have a property that you can come to is hilarious. I saw this in communism when they took the houses of the people who left the country. This is similar, they will take your house in 10-15 years based on taxes.
Also the are tight lips when it comes to occupancy per square footage because the elites would be affected.
How about an empty basement or a 90% of mansion that always sits empty but guess this tax is not for the rich people, is for working ma an pa.
To me it seems that we are going back to a Victorian style society, with no middle class just have (elites ) and havenots ( serfs ).
If I have to pick a banana country to live in I would definitely go for a tropical/subtropical place, at least the weather is nice.
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