Jeremy went into his bank this past week (“the lion one”) and met with a snappy Financial Advisor. Unlike [email protected], the FA had his own office. No window. Nothing on the walls. Our blog dog was shopping for a one-year GIC to house a big pile of money from a recent house sale. Seven figures.
Well, the flip side of falling mortgage rates is eroding GIC returns. What would have been a 5% one-year, non-cashable deal two weeks ago is now 4.45%, and slipping.
“This is a bit weird,” he says. “The bank rate in Ottawa didn’t go down. My bank’s prime rate did not decrease, and mortgage rates being offered by RBC also have not changed. Inflation is still stupid, so why all of a sudden are they carving down the rate on this savings peoduct?”
Because they can. And RBC knows what’s coming. The Bank of Canada pause will probably turn into a cut or two by the end of the year. So just as the real estate market may have bottomed a few weeks ago, so GICs may have crested.
But there is an alternative.
These days a lot of people have decided cash is king. Last year the stock market laid an egg. Now we have teetering US banks to worry about, the threat of a recession in the next few months, nukes in Belarus, Trump resurrected and inflation that won’t go away. Plus Chrystia, of course.
So lot of folks have decided that 5% is good enough, even if it’s less than the current cost-of-living increase. The cash portion of portfolios has crept steadily about the 2% weighting that is normal during years when equity markets are chugging ahead and savers get the short end of the stick.
GICs are okay, but far from perfect. Rates are dropping, as Jeremy discovered. Plus there’s no liquidity if you want the best return – money has to be locked up for a year or more. (The yield drops fast for a cashable product.) Most GICs don’t pay monthly income, either, so you have to wait until maturity day to reap the harvest.
So we told our guy to check out high-interest savings ETFs.
Billions and billions have migrated into these things over the past few months as the Bank of Canada hiked rates eight times, adding 450 basis points of adrenalin. There are now a number of them to choose from, and they all offer 100% liquidity plus a rate of return higher than locked-in GICs. That means you can stay in, preserve capital and collect interest, or bail at any time you screw up enough courage to get back into your comfy B&D portfolio.
A high-interest savings ETF is basically cash. Low-risk. Accessible. Safe as money in the bank, because that’s where it ends up. No CDIC insurance, but Jeremy wouldn’t get that on his million-dollar GIC, either.
“Specifically, when a buy order is placed for the HISA ETF, the funds settle with the ETF’s custodian (e.g., CIBC Melon),” explains my portfolio manager buddy Ryan. “They then wire the funds to some of the major banks including TD, BMO, NA and BNS. The banks take in the cash just a like a normal bank deposit and loan out of these funds or invest the funds in short-term investments like a Banker’s Acceptance. You as the ETF holder receive daily interest, which is paid out once a month.”
What can you expect to earn? Lots.
The ETF pays out the Bank of Canada rate (currently 4.5%) plus a premium, now sitting at just under half a per cent. “Clients are receiving an attractive 4.99%,” says Ryan. “That’s not too shabby especially considering it’s a low risk investment that will not see much (if any) price volatility. And since the funds are invested at the big Canadian banks these ETFs are pretty safe and secure.”
How does the fund actually work?
At the beginning of the month the price is set at fifty bucks a unit. Each day that value rises as interest is accrued. At the end of the month all the interest is paid to the unitholder, and the fund resets to $50.
What can go wrong?
If you think one of the major banks could fail, taking the funds cash deposits with it, then don’t invest. As stated, there is no CDIC coverage. But then again, if RBC or BeeMo crashed there would be no place to hide and you might have to learn bug recipes. More reasonable a threat is a falling rate of return. That 4.99% available now could be closer to 4.25% by the end of the year. Maybe less. It all depends on what the CB decides. There are also trading costs, so if you move in and out of a HISA ETF frequently, that will eat into returns. (If you use a fee-based advisor there are advisor costs but trades are free.)
Also a threat are lost returns by staying in cash too long. A year from now it’s a reasonable assumption interest rates will be taking a dive, inflation corralled, the economy coming out of a recession, equity markets robust and bonds plumping as yields fade. Cash may lose its crown.
About the picture: “Hey Garth, thanks for all you do. We read you daily and appreciate the repetition and reinforcement your writings bring to keep us on a B&D path,” writes Edward. “This is Samara, our ball chasing Lab, last time you saw her she was on a dock in the near north of Ontario, she now resides on the bucolic South Shore of Nova Scotia. Currently she is hanging in coastal Georgia with her snowbird parents. BTW she is too busy with daily beach walks or chasing squirrels to bother with the nonsense of the comments page.”
97 comments ↓
Just invest 80% in your B&D portfolio and keep the rest for your down payment.
So here is a question, I deal with BMO investorline and they will not fill order on CASH, because it conflicts with their GIC’s. Do any discounters allow you to buy?
Most of the big bank brokerages, with CIBC being the main exception I think, block access to HISA etfs. They like that cash sitting there earning nothing, or locked into GICs, so they intentionally prevent investors from accessing these. They are good products for short terms cash- the T-Rev clan has nearly $100k in capital projects to complete this year, and needs liquidity and safety on those deposits while we wait to spend them. We’d also like to collect a decent return. War with the green guys has ensued, as I’ve written many emails, a few letters (like with a pen and sent via pidgeon), and a pair of phone calls. It would be great if other green customers did the same, maybe we’d see some progress.
Hi Garth,
Can you update your guidance on preferred shares in light of the recent headwinds they’ve faced? Previously, you’d noted that preferreds were undervalued and they’ve taken an absolute beating since. Are you still a believer? Or is time to throw in the towel? Thanks
Where does a person even begin to describe what happened to the Net Worth (Wealth) of Canadians in 2022?
Even usually upbeat StatCan pretty much depressing about what happened in 2022 to the Wealth of Canadians:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/230331/dq230331b-eng.htm?HPA=1
Numbers that follow are in Dollars (x 1,000,000). StatCan data is used based on All Households Wealth.
GOOD News
Wealth increased by 180,996, +1.2% from Q3 2022 —> Q4 2022. Thus ending 3 consecutive quarters of Wealth loss.
BAD News
Wealth loss:
2022 Q1 = 16,327,767
2022 Q4 = 15,320,426
Change = -1,007,341
$1 TRILLION lost in Wealth, -6.2% in 2022.
The main culprits of Wealth loss were, $ Change, % Change:
Real Estate = -844,420, -9.6%
Mortgage liabilities = 103,022, 5.2%
together accounting for about $950 Billion of the $1 Trillion lost.
Surprisingly, Other Financial Assets* did not drop by much, $ Change, % Change:
-36,455, -0.6%
Nor did Other liabilities** increase by a lot, $ Change, % Change:
27,900, 3.8%
My next couple of Comments will slice & dice the StatCan data by Income and Wealth Quintiles, Generation and Owner vs. Renter.
Mortgages in total value increased:
2022 Q1 = 1,990,070
2022 Q4 = 2,093,092 (+ $103,022, + 5.2%)
————————
* Other financial assets include total currency and deposits, Canadian short-term paper, Canadian bonds and debentures, foreign investments in paper and bonds, mortgages, equity and investment funds, and other receivables.
** Other liabilities include major credit cards and retail store cards, gasoline station cards, etc., vehicle loans, lines of credit, student loans, other loans from financial institutions and other money owed.
Data Source:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610066001
Changes in 2022 Wealth
by Income Quintile
Characteristics ………………………. $ Chg, % Chg
Lowest income quintile …………… -92,364, -7.6%
Second income quintile …………. -124,108, -7.6%
Third income quintile …………….. -185,378, -7.2%
Fourth income quintile ……………. -227,248, -6.4%
Highest income quintile ………….. -378,243, -5.2%
by Wealth Quintile
Characteristics ………………………. $ Chg, % Chg
Lowest wealth quintile …………… -13,042, -588.3% (staggering)
Second wealth quintile …………… -70,339, -14.7%
Third wealth quintile …………….. -155,313, -10.0%
Fourth wealth quintile …………… -248,324, -7.4%
Highest wealth quintile …………. -520,321, -4.8%
by Owner vs. Renter
Characteristics ………………………. $ Chg, % Chg
Owner with mortgage …………. -542,519, -9.4%
Owner without mortgage …….. -422,346, -4.6%
Renter ……………………………….. -42,476, -2.9%
Changes in 2022 Wealth
by Generation (a.k.a., how the wrinklies took it in the nards)
Characteristics ………………. $ Chg, % Chg
Pre-1946 …………………… -390,381, -29.5% large losses for our very elderly)
Baby boom ………………… -586,012, -8.9%
Generation X ………………… -21,703, -0.4%
Millennials ………………………. -9,244, -0.4%
My guess is that, in part, intergenerational transfer of wealth happened big time during 2022 and to the “kids” be it by death or lending a helping hand during tough times. Probably other reasons, that’s just 1 that comes to mind quickly.
so I’m assuming these ETFs are taxed as capital gains vs interest income? That’s a big savings if that’s the case.
Validation hore
Someone who can’t resist the urge to post every stupid, mundane, unimportant detail of their life on social media, in the hope of getting someone to like, comment on, or be impressed by what their life entails.
Canada’s unimpeachable “Health Care” scores an “honorable mention” in international news…..
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/syphilis-cases-babies-skyrocket-canada-amid-healthcare-failures-2023-03-31/
#3 T-Rev
You are correct. I just tried placing an order for:
HISU.U
5.17% Gross Yield
WebBroker – USD Cash
and nada, black text, evil pink background with dueling messages:
“This order cannot be placed electronically. Please contact TD Direct Investing at 1-800-465-5463 (or 416-982-7686), or TD Easy Trade at 1-877-250-2588 to place this order. [90211]
This symbol is not eligible for trading online. For assistance, please call TD Direct Investing at 1-800-465-5463 or TD Easy Trade at 1-877-250-2588. [44221]”
————
Well, that sucks.
Ru roh, big GDP print. What will the Tiffer do?
Remember when Pierre endorsed Bitcoin when it was heading to its record high of US$70,000? Bitcoin is less than half of that value today. Sure beats inflation ain’t it lol.
That’s worse than buying GICs and at least getting a few pennies in interest gains.
Aside from extortionist rent and grocery prices, there are ways to reduce your personal inflation such as
1. cutting unnecessary costs,
2. hiring raccoons like the gold buyers
3. boycotting AirBnBs which cost more than five star hotels.
You can also get a tax credit for staycationing in Ontario.
These ETFˋs are taxed as income .They are not available from any of the bank brokerages ,however every bank would have their own Mutual Fund cash like (at TD there is TDB8150 and 8152 ,granted at 4.05% only).
T-Rev- TD has HISA options, I have cash in TDB8150. Pays 4.05%. Believe they have a few options that pay more as well. Not 4.99 but close enough for me considering the holding period- short.
‘Trump resurrected’? More like ‘Trump indicted’. That having been said, Trump has already declared his intention to fight the charges. Don’t know if his most recent legal issues will affect his presidential run or not. For sure looks like not a few Americans believe the charges are all politically motivated. Even if Trump & Co. are guilty of fraud he may well get off due to that belief he is the victim of a political witch hunt. Plus if he does make it back into the WH, how likely is it really that he will be convicted?
#3 T-Rev on 03.31.23 at 2:26 pm
“…..Most of the big bank brokerages, with CIBC being the main exception I think, block access to HISA etfs. They like that cash sitting there earning nothing, or locked into GICs, so they intentionally prevent investors from accessing these.
—–
War with the green guys has ensued, as I’ve written many emails, a few letters (like with a pen and sent via pidgeon), and a pair of phone calls. It would be great if other green customers did the same, maybe we’d see some progress…….”
=====================
COMMENT:
My past banking was with Canada Trust…who were absorbed by the Martians…..err….Green Guys
I am dealing with an estate issue for the past 5 years..my late mother banked with Green Guys as well.
The Green Guys circle the wagons when SHTF…
ZEB 5% yield
Enbridge 7% yield
BCE 6.3% yield
plus dividend tax credit and good opportunity for capital appreciation.
Only death and taxes are guaranteed but these are pretty good bets.
Can’t find the Horizons ETF (CASH) on RBC Direct Investing.
I have been buying and selling CASH etf for a few months now, yield 4.95%.
I buy at $50.01 early in the month, sell at $50.19 close to the end of the month and i get $.18 profit taxed as capital gain instead of waiting for interest of 20 cents per share taxed as income paid 15 days later if i just hang on.
Even if i lose 1 cent on the buy-side and 1-2 cents on the sell side i still come up ahead after tax. After tax is the important thing. I buy and sell $500,000 every month so i get an extra $300 after tax for doing two trades, no commission with Disnat. Lots of liquidity.
This is the cash/bond portion of my portfolio.
@ #15 Mattl
TDB8150 (and they have a few other funds that are similar) is a Mutual Fund, not an ETF. They have management expense ratio’s of 0.4% and up, as opposed to 0.11% like CASH.TO. So you lose 0.3%. Plus, it takes a day to settle, as opposed to seconds to liquidate with an ETF. Be wary as well, as some MF products (not all) will have minimum holding periods, so you’ll pay penalties for moving in and out of them, and those penalties can be substantial and eat up more than the interest you’ve earned. So do your homework and buyer beware. The ETFs are still much preferable.
And in response to some of the other comments- CIBC allows access to HISA etfs. Green guys, blue guys, and royal blue guys do not, and I don’t know about the red ones. Wealthsimple and Questrade allow access to my knowledge.
If I had that extra millski to invest, I keep right on buying Rate Reset Preferreds until it became a half millski.
Welp, at least they ‘pay’ you to hold on to them, even if they do erode a fella’s capital position and have a significant associated opportunity cost.
Wait, what?
A great way to grow some cash and keep it safe… but, like T-Rev said, the banks don’t make it easy to purchase those ETFs.
And I do believe the tax treatment is different (better!) with the HISA ETF vs Interest income.
“Also a threat are lost returns by staying in cash too long. A year from now it’s a reasonable assumption interest rates will be taking a dive, inflation corralled, the economy coming out of a recession, equity markets robust and bonds plumping as yields fade.”
Well, that’s one possible assumption. But the whole argument is based on the presumption inflation will fall while real rates are still negative and the government is borrowing money like a terminal patient who’s creditors don’t know about the illness.
I see no reason to assume inflation is on its way back to 2%. None of the drivers have improved. Energy prices are down, but mostly due to demand destruction in Europe and Asia (read “a great economic calamity previously referred to as a depression”). That probably won’t last. The war in Europe will probably end sometime in the next 12 months, and probably to nobody’s satisfaction, but Europe will not recover for 10 years, if they can recover at all. In the end we can declare with some certainty that China won the war, because not only did they scoop up the access to the raw materials and energy that formerly went to Europe, they absorbed the manufacturing base as well. We should have seen that coming. Oh wait, some of us did!
Meanwhile while Trudeau/Singh were busy removing the right to free speech in Canada and instituting police state policies, China also indirectly acquired Northeastern BC. They are playing to win, but not by the same rules we are using. They use long term economic interests, whereas we use guns. Turns out guns don’t provide lasting security, all they do is foster rebellion. Just look what happened in the Netherlands. It might happen here too. If you can make the Dutch stand up and say “you’ve go too far”, you really have.
I just noticed my green bank is limiting how much I can e transfer. 3,000 per day. 10,000 per week. 30,000 per month. Did anyone else notice something similar?
So, yeah, stuff happens, my plan a few weeks ago was to snap off a 20k brick from my financial house and do a 5.10 GIC before the end of the month, because supposedly that’s when the offer ended.
SVB went all Do-Re-Mi, and the market started singing a different song.
Thor Turner said if you’re gonna be a wuss, now’s the time to snag a GIC above 5, I obliged.
When I got back from California Dreaming, I went to see if I should snap of another financial brick, the bank had shut the hotdog stand down earlier than expected, due to lack of gas to keep the GIC water boiling…
M48BC
IMHO…
….too much du$t floating around re: the Feds 2023 budget.
Are the Feds trying to save:
(i) those with mortgages…
(ii) or the lenders…
(iii) or both.
Potential collateral damage which seems to be missing in the bigger and broader discussion is that disposable income outside on mortgage payments will be reduced….this deficit will ripple through the economy…. and perhaps families will be impacted(ie divorces etc.)
#11 Linda on 03.31.23 at 3:23 pm
‘Trump resurrected’? More like ‘Trump indicted’. That having been said, Trump has already declared his intention to fight the charges. Don’t know if his most recent legal issues will affect his presidential run or not. For sure looks like not a few Americans believe the charges are all politically motivated. Even if Trump & Co. are guilty of fraud he may well get off due to that belief he is the victim of a political witch hunt. Plus if he does make it back into the WH, how likely is it really that he will be convicted?
——————————
I find it amazing.
Bush and crew “weapons of mass destruction” was BS. They are war mongers.
G’D old Biden leaving Billions of hardware in Afghanistan. There were pallets of $100 bills.
Bizzar, Trumps little thingy is a nothing burger.
Its a war on Trump that’s it. Politics is a clown show while Rome Burns.
Good write up Garth as I still like cash. For the risk I think trying to earn a few more points with a B&D still isn’t worth the risk.
Not at 100% cash, as when things got wacked I did some buying.
There’s still some big azz black swans circling… Up to their Butts in debt…or as
Robbini says many regional banks are broke….
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-31/roubini-sees-crash-danger-as-zentner-wonders-what-evil-lurks#xj4y7vzkg
We had a joint 400k non registered GIC’s in a bank till the bank turmoil kicked in.
To get CDIC coverage we split the GIC’s into 100k x 4 GIC’s with 4.2% one year cashable GIC’s. Two GIC’s in Vasu’s name and 2 GICs in Ambi’s account. Bank gave us the option of 4 different arms of the bank, all CDIC registered entities.
The CDIC online calculator (https://www.cdic.ca/calculator/add-deposit/deposit-value) helped us to understand the coverage plus a direct email to CDIC ([email protected]) and a reply from CDIC helped to understand the coverage and the amounts
Meaningless effort as CDIC could not cover a major bank failure. Good thing it will never happen. – Garth
the question: why is any bank anywhere allowed to accept crypto as collateral for loans?
https://www.dcreport.org/2023/03/14/how-bitcoin-and-other-magic-internet-money-loans-endanger-your-financial-health/
1 month t bills around 4.3.
Very safe.
Huh????
CDIC would absolutely cover a major bank failure—don’t make stuff up.
Check out CDIC’s assets. – Garth
15 Mattl
“T-Rev- TD has HISA options, I have cash in TDB8150. Pays 4.05%. Believe they have a few options that pay more as well. Not 4.99 but close enough for me considering the holding period- short.”
—————————————————-
Similar situation here – The “house brand” HISA. Had an old MF in my RRSP. Sold and moved $$ to HISA (for
now). Took approx equal $$ from HISA in non-reg and added to dividend paying ETFs.
Result – maintained market exposure but better tax efficiency and a known amount in my RRSP that can be withdrawn at any time.
No offense Jeremy, but the big banks aren’t there to give you a good deal. They’ll lend out all your hard earned money elsewhere for better returns.
It’s like rural small town Canada where the nicest buildings are the insurance company and the bank, even if the rest of the place is burned out and boarded up. Says everything.
Just a suggestion, but why not ZPR or something similar for over a 6% yearly yield paid monthly?
Laddered preferred shares that will likely offer increasing yield for a while yet.
Safer than stocks and more timely yield increase than bonds in my opinion, and no locked in loser bond feeling. Ask SVB.
Great odds that there will be a capital gain later on when Tiff gives up raising rates and starts lowering them.
Come to think of it we should all start making moves like that, pull your deposits in to something better so the banks will start offering competitive rates on accounts. Do it for your elderly relatives who should be getting better returns.
Very timely blog Garth thank you. How about money market funds? Any advantages/disadvantages vs the high interest ETFs?
16 Linda on 03.31.23 at 3:23 pm
How Big Are Trump Rally Crowds?
https://www.dcreport.org/2023/03/31/how-big-are-trump-rally-crowds/
poverty and profit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nw5GoTq2vBE
In a stunning admission, when asking point blank by Rep James Lankford (R-OK) whether a community bank in his home state of OK would have uninsured depositors made whole the same way SVB did, Yellen had to come clean.
“A bank only gets that treatment if a super majority of the fed board, and I, in consultation with the President conclude that failure to protect uninsured depositors would create systemic risk to the banking system.”
In other words “not necessarily.”
The “Fed” is neither federal, nor a “reserve.”
However, if you’re one of theirs you’re safe? 1913 was the beginning of the end in my opinion.
Prediction: rates probably will overshoot and we’ll touch 8% mortgage rates next year. Maybe some new ‘banking crisis’ our Rulers cook up. Boy this would be a first.
I can’t even.
Why doesn’t the Bank of Canada still make low interest loans for major infrastructure projects anymore? Just wondering.
Flop Drops.
As the song goes in the Rocky Horror Picture Show, let’s do the time warp again.
I thought I was back in Wyoming or Montana looking at this place in the far flung wilderness of Langley.
The details…
Original ask 1.59
Assessment 1.37
Just sold for 950k
Detached 2300 sq ft house, with one acre.
Did not state if comes with a My Little Pony.
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2741906/7494-229-STREET-Langley-BC/
People trying to tell me things are going back up, some money being bandied about for brand new, or turn key, is enough to make some peoples eyes water, but I think the price of land is actually coming down.
I’ve seen blocks of land in Richmond go for 1.2, same for East Van, maybe even a little lower.
North Vancouver, pretty sure I saw a couple of vacant blocks go for 1.05, couldn’t get anything below 1.3 not that long ago.
Oh yeah, I’m getting cramp from typing, time to wrap it up.
I saw this map of Canada the other day showing rent versus mortgage in major Canadian cities, been trying to work it into a post in case it helps someone out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/henselbernie/status/1641096836269191168/photo/1
According to the person who tabled the numbers, only Winnipeg and Quebec City were the only 2 cities where the mortgage payment was less than the rent payment, if my eyes don’t deceive me.
I probably did major eye damage after Trump told me is was alright to stare at the sun…
M48BC
#75 Prince Polo yesterday
If I take Garth’s TD 3yr, 5.59% VRM at a 25 yr vs. 30 yr amortization (am) example …
The stated or advertised mortgage rate, the 5.59%, is nominal and based on semi-annual compounding. It has to be converted to monthly compounding; thus, the rate for monthly compounding calculations becomes (Effective Rate):
5.526%
Thus, the payments are:
25 yr am PMT = $ 3,078.20 / mo
30 yr am PMT = $ 2,847.10 / mo
After 3 years the Bank gets in payments, CASH:
25 yr am PMTs = $ 110,815.30
30 yr am PMTs = $ 102,495.73
They are getting $8,319.57 LESS in cash or revenue with the 30 yr am, 7.5% less over the 3 year period.
In 3rd Qtr 2022 there were, per StatCan:
438,703 insured residential mortgages
1,124,971 uninsured residential mortgages (scary)
For arguments sake, assume all the mortgages in 3rd Qtr 2022 were like the example TD mortgage. That would mean the Banks would receive this much less Revenue, Cash, over the 3 years:
$13 Billion.
Not a deal breaker, yet, a significant sum of Revenue, Cash not coming in over 3 years.
That LOST Revenue or Cash could have been lent out or invested and would have earned extra interest, cash for the Banks.
Using Simple Interest at 5.526%, to keep the calculations “simple”, the Banks could have earned this much Interest based on the LOST $13 Billion in Revenue, Cash, over the 3 yr period:
$727 Million.
An Opportunity Cost.
Interesting that the post talks about cash today—at end of week, month, quarter! For those fearful of markets? Equity markets have been on a tear this week. NASDAQ up almost 17% this quarter. Anyone invested is smiling compared to cash alternatives.
Buy your own banks
[email protected]_whales
First Citizens Bank, the buyer of Silicon Valley Bank’s assets, is run by a billionaire North Carolina family that’s bought over 20 failed banks since 2008, per BI.
If you didn’t live in Parksville you would have an extra milli to invest.
CDIC has more than $1 trillion in assets. CIBC has $800 billion in total assets—do the math. Pretty sure the gov’t would backstop anything CDIC couldn’t cover,up to the $100k of course or maybe even more if they pull a Biden/Yellen “Everybody gets their money.”
CDIC-insured deposits (not assets) are a trillion. Cash and investments are $7.2 billion. Read the annual report. – Garth
#25 ‘mj’ – as far as I know all banks set daily withdrawal limits for their customers. One can apply to increase the amount one can withdraw, but limiting the daily withdrawal is nothing new. I’d imagine most don’t even think about it, since very few folks carry actual cash any more. Tap & go is the norm now. About the only time a transaction might be held up is if one is buying a big ticket item. Then the card might not let the transaction go through.
Because they can. And RBC knows what’s coming. The Bank of Canada pause will probably turn into a cut or two by the end of the year. So just as the real estate market may have bottomed a few weeks ago, so GICs may have crested.
********
I’m not seeing it…
Canada’s economy continues to defy expectations for a pullback.
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-gdp-numbers-what-economists-saying
#39 Really? Not! on 03.31.23 at 5:19 pm
The Bank of Canada does not make infrastructure loans: the Canada infrastructure Bank has that mandate:
https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/CIB-BIC/index-eng.html
I get an average of 4.73% in 1,2,3 & 5yr, a 30 day cashable 1 yr. and a 25k 1 yr. that pays $100 monthly.
Some of the long ones pay yearly.
I found the offers varied from week to week as I gathered them.
Equal weight to my equities.
Off topic.
Netflix just started streaming this bare it all documentary
https://twitter.com/Jesusruizortiz/status/1639242780844208129
28 min ago here in Italia.
#139 Dharma Bum on 03.31.23 at 8:02 am
#131 Faron
But, can you tell me what the weather’s gonna be like this Tuesday around the Bruce Peninsula?
—
I can tell you what the forecasts are. Nobody can tell you what will happen.
NAEFS for Kitchener/Waterloo
ECWF’s ensemble
Synopsis: Tuesday will likely be the intermediary day between a developing system passing by rapidly Sunday/Monday and the next, juicier system arriving Wednesday. Will be in the warm advection region of the advancing system, so fairly mild temperatures.
*Increasing chance of precipitation through the day.
*Temperature warming throughout the day
*Chance of anything falling as snow decreases as time passes.
*Increasing clouds.
*Wednesday is looking warm and wet. Make sure you (or the movers) empty the moving truck ASAP. Great day to hunker down and settle in.
Looks like a very nice part of the world.
El Nino and La Nina are neither kind nor unkind. Just two siblings locked in struggle. Neither will ever achieve dominance.
Great Lakes water levels? Data shows them at pretty normal levels. 2″ above normal, but 5″ below last year at this time. Perhaps you experienced a seich (wind driven lake level anomaly)?. Here’s a video.
from yesterday
This is what Chrystia is trying to prevent – by actually encouraging, recommending and now authorizing that debt be increased and extended. As this blog has reported in recent weeks, a growing hunk of the Big Banks’ mortgage portfolios is now beyond 35 years. CIBC, for example, has hit about 30%. This is typical. Some people worry a lot about that exposure. We seem to be embracing a corruption of the very rules which have kept financial and real estate markets stable.
at the community association we’re looking at two proposals. One to develop 700 units and another to develop 400 units. The whole process is becoming comical. The developers need building loans to build the units. Buyers need mortgages to buy them. The banks need a safe return but financial and real estate markets not as stable as they were.
The units are not going up any time soon.
Money market ETFs? What the heh. Dumped most of the safe stuff in my portfolio into a couple of these and the rest is riding in equity positions.
Damn the torpedoes. Love the yield.
#9 This one’s for you, Sailo! on 03.31.23 at 2:56 pm
Validation hore
Someone who can’t resist the urge to post every stupid, mundane, unimportant detail of their life on social media, in the hope of getting someone to like, comment on, or be impressed by what their life entails.
///////////////
By George, I think you’ve got it.
Even funnier when Faron attempts the same.
Well that sucks—we have insurance that in fact is really not insurance at all? How do they get away with that? The 100k at each institution in each category(ie RRSP,TFSA ,no reg) would still have to be backstopped by the gov’t though because otherwise it makes no sense. Judge Judy told me if it makes no sense it’s not true.
So…
What I am surmising from GF braintrust ground zero personal experiences..
…is some of our banks are denying/delaying access to their very own deposit funds…
..perhaps a precursor to what happened with BAIL- INS in some Mediterranean lands ?
Of course not. – Garth
It’s good that the Divided States of America has so many lawyers .
After Trump has gone through about half of them, there are still enough for those who actualy need one.
Barely.
The federal budget released this week included plans for so-called “right to repair” rules. They’re meant to make it easier and cheaper to fix things like home appliances, electronics, and farming equipment instead of having to completely replace them. But as Touria Izri reports, how the new rules could be implemented is still unclear.
—————————
The EU is also looking at bringing forward such rules.
Make the manufacturers pay for repairs that happen “coincidently”right after the crappy warranty runs out.
Time to stop “built in obsolescence”.
@#51 Faron
“Great Lakes water levels?”
+++
There has been evidence of the earths crust rising on the north side of the Great Lakes.
https://www.ontariobeneathourfeet.com/rising-land-isostatic-rebound#:~:text=The%20weight%20of%20that%20ice,ice%20age%20started%20to%20end.
Is that a geologic rebound or …..?
It may have something to do with the increasing obesity of the 380 million Americans to the south…..
French cybersecurity team wins a Tesla for hacking into one
The car’s infotainment and security systems were breached in mere minutes at a hacking conference in Vancouver, B.C.
– [ ] ———————————
– I can see why Musk wants to know were the holes in the armour are.
And then issue band aid fixes.
But sure does not inspire confidence in the product.
But then again, Musk followers are oblivious to that sort of thing.
CDIC-insured deposits (not assets) are a trillion. Cash and investments are $7.2 billion. Read the annual report. – Garth
Are you trying to tell us a trillion dollar assets will go under… Be real Garth
That made no sense. CDIC has insured a trillion worth of deposits. What part of that do you not understand? – Garth
#59 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.31.23 at 7:28 pm
@#51 Faron
“Great Lakes water levels?”
+++
There has been evidence of the earths crust rising on the north side of the Great Lakes.
https://www.ontariobeneathourfeet.com/rising-land-isostatic-rebound#:~:text=The%20weight%20of%20that%20ice,ice%20age%20started%20to%20end.
Is that a geologic rebound or …..?
It may have something to do with the increasing obesity of the 380 million Americans to the south…..
—
Good point and possibly a part of it. Any change in apparent water height for an inland basin would have to come from tilting because the entire basin would be lifting, water and all. If you have a bowl of water on a small table and lift the table, the level of water relative to the bowl doesn’t change.
In contrast, an ocean shore will rise out of the ~fixed level (except for climate related sea level rise) sea.
For Ontario and the peninsula in question, the fastest uplift rates are in the north and decrease southward, thus providing the tilt needed to cause apparent lake level change. But, at most this is 1/10 an inch a year (2-3 mm), not the +-5 inches that are routinely seen.
regarding large Americans. LOL. Good one.
Cramar
TFX.TO doing well YTD.
#36 jess on 03.31.23 at 4:57 pm
16 Linda on 03.31.23 at 3:23 pm
How Big Are Trump Rally Crowds?
—
Yuge, of course.
#61 AmbiVasu on 03.31.23 at 7:40 pm
CDIC-insured deposits (not assets) are a trillion. Cash and investments are $7.2 billion. Read the annual report. – Garth
Are you trying to tell us a trillion dollar assets will go under… Be real Garth
—
Here’s the annual report and the consolidated financials for last year.
Fun little tidbit on page 20: $7.2 billion in bonds. $5.9 billion yielding an average of 1.32%.
Now, one has to wonder, is that $5.9 billion the face value? If so, what would the mark-to-market value be if there were serious problems and those $7.2 billion needed to be liquidated? Wouldn’t it be more responsible to note that, in a dire crisis, the actually available liquid assets are subject to a substantial duration penalty? Anyone want to dig in and let us know if the CDIC has hedged their bond exposure somehow?
It’s interesting how every time the “experts” are amazed by how well the Canadian economy is going, the public is self-congratulating themselves for living in this piece of heaven.
Only for it all to come crashing down shortly after.
It happens like clockwork, every time.
For those who claim to think logically – what makes you think that the Canadian economy is running at high RPMs when all other around us are sputtering? Are we super-efficient? Do we have a great workforce? Great infrastructure? Great defense? An amazing administration? Or – what is it that makes us so special? Past successes?
#38 TN
You can’t make this sh*t up at this point – gloves are OFF
#9 This one’s for you, Sailo! on 03.31.23 at 2:56 pm
Validation hore
Someone who can’t resist the urge to post every stupid, mundane, unimportant detail of their life on social media, in the hope of getting someone to like, comment on, or be impressed by what their life entails.
—————
A true surprise for me is how angry many people seem to be. Why?
BC Doctor murdered March 21…
…details just came out…
…appears to be via intricate Real Estate matter
Stay Tuned !!!
How much dividends does Tesla pay a year?
Tesla common stock dividends paid for the twelve months ending December 31, 2022 were $0M, a NAN% increase year-over-year. Tesla annual common stock dividends paid for 2022 were $0B, a NAN% decline from 2021. Tesla annual common stock dividends paid for 2021 were $0B, a NAN% decline from 2020.
——————
Interesting.
“Plus there’s no liquidity if you want the best return – money has to be locked up for a year or more.”
Not Always. While overpaying for a house, I came up short. My banker broke that rule with the drop of a pen; he liquefied an 8 rung top-rate ladder of 2-year GICs
Personal relationships rule, especially in a bank that is not nationally significant.
#68 Sail Away on 03.31.23 at 8:54 pm
#9 This one’s for you, Sailo! on 03.31.23 at 2:56 pm
A true surprise for me is how angry many people seem to be. Why?
—
You’ve got a nutter and your lack of self-awareness is astonishing.
Hey, remember that time you doxxed yourself and I put on my white hat hacker garb and reminded you that there are nut bars out there and that it’s not wise to tell internet randos where you live, who your wife is, where she works, who your brother in law is, what charitable causes you are a part of, where you work, how you like your chin scratched and all the rest? I even suggested Garth take down some of your words for that reason?
#9 is why. You only have yourself to blame because you are the one who can’t keep your yap shut and your private info in.
FYI: maybe people seem angry around you because you are a jerk to them? People I work and play with seem pretty happy. Karma I guess…
DELETED
Worried about the banks and our sad currency . Buy gold and silver in a safe and secure place . Check out the 20 year chart on both and you’ll see why. USA will have in the end 4 big banks and let the rest fail.
The USA dollar will not be the reserve currency in 2 years.
Good luck holding USD.
#51 Faron on 03.31.23 at 6:43 pm
Perhaps you experienced a seich (wind driven lake level anomaly)?. Here’s a video.
_____________________________________
I was eating supper in the cockpit of a boat in a Toronto island lagoon, late summer in the late 60’s and the water level lifted and dropped a couple or few feet a few times in several seconds. Docked boat mast heads kissed their neighboring boats mast heads, and so on. Half of the day-sailor class in the evening race in the harbor capsized. We went forth, helped right and tow some in. The barometer graph in the RCYC clubhouse scribbled the incident top to bottom with the ink needle on the 24hr recording drum.
There was an associated minor line squall with it.
Interesting life, until about Y2K, then I don’t know what has happened to it in retrospect! Jaded much?
#72 Faron on 03.31.23 at 9:36 pm
#68 Sail Away on 03.31.23 at 8:54 pm
#9 This one’s for you, Sailo! on 03.31.23 at 2:56 pm
A true surprise for me is how angry many people seem to be. Why?
—————
You’ve got a nutter and your lack of self-awareness is astonishing.
Hey, remember that time you doxxed yourself and I put on my white hat hacker garb and reminded you that there are nut bars out there and that it’s not wise to tell internet randos where you live, who your wife is, where she works, who your brother in law is, what charitable causes you are a part of, where you work, how you like your chin scratched and all the rest? I even suggested Garth take down some of your words for that reason?
—————
Stay alert, stay alive, is our mantra. Plus, now: Beware of Blinky.
CASH IS KING – and that sadly is something that people are losing the ability to control – REAL cash in their hands, bank, safe etc – and CONTROL is what this is all about – Control of what you do, how you do it, where you do it, with who you do it – Banks and governments are slowly tightening the C-clamp on your freedom to be FREE, to do as you please with your Cash and not be monitored, questioned, Controlled and made to feel like some inconsequential key stroke on a computer
Life in our crowded, fetid “Smart Cities” will get that much worsened. Look what our Rulers are up to.
For our health – public health even!.
https://tnc.news/2023/03/31/toronto-decriminalization-kids/
https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/94de-Torontos-Model-of-Decriminalizing-Drugs-for-Personal-use-March-22-2023-FINAL.pdf
The City of Toronto has released its sweeping plan to decriminalize all hard drugs, including fentanyl and crack cocaine for any age.
Toronto’s request is even more lenient than the decriminalization order granted to the entire province of British Columbia by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau earlier this year.
The City is asking that the federal government grant a Health Canada exemption for all drugs extending even to children.
——
Do they think we are STUPID?
Don’t answer that….
Do you Trust the Science or Not ?
https://ntp.niehs.nih.gov/ntp/about_ntp/bsc/2023/fluoride/documents_provided_bsc_wg_031523.pdf
“The National Toxicology Program on Wednesday released a draft report linking prenatal and childhood fluoride exposure to reduced IQ in children, after public health officials tried for almost a year to block its publication.
Of the 19 high-quality studies assessing the association between fluoride and IQ in children, 18 reported an association between higher fluoride exposure and lower IQ in children. Forty-six of the 53 low-quality studies also found evidence of that association”
71 Oblio on 03.31.23 at 9:25 pm
“Plus there’s no liquidity if you want the best return – money has to be locked up for a year or more.”
Not Always. While overpaying for a house, I came up short. My banker broke that rule with the drop of a pen; he liquefied an 8 rung top-rate ladder of 2-year GICs
Personal relationships rule, especially in a bank that is not nationally significant.
—————————
I worked for a Credit Union.
And we had that personal touch.
Not anymore.
The bigger Credit Unions are just like the banks.
Everything is about making sales targets now.
The anger on social media baffles me. Why would anyone actually get that worked up about people, politics, systems, governance? In almost all cases, it is anger about something the person cannot affect or control in any way. So why care?
It’s a whole lot of energy that could be used for exercise or advancing an interest or making nice gifts for friends and family.
Don’t be angry. Redirect to curiosity and interest. How many people have a chronically unhappy, angry dog? Exactly none. Channel your dog. Life is (actually) good. Looking forward to tomorrow’s mountain run, and so are the happy dogs. Also, grow flowers.
#72 Faron on 03.31.23 at 9:36 pm
#68 Sail Away on 03.31.23 at 8:54 pm
#9 This one’s for you, Sailo! on 03.31.23 at 2:56 pm
A true surprise for me is how angry many people seem to be. Why?
—
You’ve got a nutter and your lack of self-awareness is astonishing.
Hey, remember that time you doxxed yourself and I put on my white hat hacker garb and reminded you that there are nut bars out there and that it’s not wise to tell internet randos where you live, who your wife is, where she works, who your brother in law is, what charitable causes you are a part of, where you work, how you like your chin scratched and all the rest?
*************************
Here’s what’s always bothered me about that:
Yes, Sailo shared more than was perhaps prudent, but you repeatedly pointing it out is just as bad if not worse considering you’ve done it for years now.
He now shares details about a hike or hunting trip hinting at a location.
You remind the world every couple of months that much more personal info is available in the archives.
There are many on this blog who…have strong feelings about you too, how would you like it if a poster kept “reminding you” where everyone can read it that there are links to your TV interview on this blog?
You are the bad guy in this. No white hat.
GIC’s do pay monthly. So what if you earn a couple of basis points less than the annual GIC. Inflation is not a joke here in Phoenix Valley desert, AZ. Every retail outlet and fast food joint has “workers wanted pay $18 hour to start”. Also service can be slow as there are less workers at the cash. Don’t know how inflation can go down with missing labour…we need demand to take a dive.
#139 Dharma Bum on 03.31.23 at 8:02 am
Yah, yah. Sure. But, can you tell me what the weather’s gonna be like this Tuesday around the Bruce Peninsula? +++
Don’t waste your time with the clinically diagnosed. If you want a good weather forecast here’s your guy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yB7uStn5geg
#83 the Jaguar on 03.31.23 at 11:20 pm
#139 Dharma Bum on 03.31.23 at 8:02 am
Yah, yah. Sure. But, can you tell me what the weather’s gonna be like this Tuesday around the Bruce Peninsula? +++
Don’t waste your time with the clinically diagnosed.
++++++++++
Smooth.
Thanks Soggy!
I’m not really concerned about people knowing me, but do like to keep some level of anonymity for more freedom to discuss (in general terms) business moves, staffing, approaches and investing. Speaking one step removed from scrutiny is freeing.
There’s only one single nutter, anywhere, that I’ve ever warned my wife about. She also reads this blog and agrees. And yes, that’s our huckleberry. Statistically abnormal obsession flashes red warning.
#76 Sail Away on 03.31.23 at 9:57 pm
Beware of Blinky
—
Wow, haven’t had my tourettes mocked since 3rd grade aside from your earlier efforts. Maybe you are mistaking anger for pity?
Enjoy your heightened vigilant posture against a non threat. Worst you have to fear from me is being bored to death with science you don’t understand or occasional criticism in comments.
iTRADE – one can buy DYN6004 (CDN) @4.5% and DYN6005 (US dollar) @ 4.65%. No commission for when you buy or sell at any time and without penalty. Of the big banks BNS is the only brokerage to make the F funds available to the retail investor. https://ads.scotiabank.com/ADS/Download/980/en
#81 SoggyShorts on 03.31.23 at 10:54 pm
#72 Faron on 03.31.23 at 9:36 pm
Couple few or four things:
1) Always is a long time
2) You lose your moralizing edge when you enact what you are calling a transgression (which isn’t BTW).
3) The difference between my being disliked and Sail Away is that I know it. i.e. I don’t have my head so far up my arse that I think everyone loves my BS. Admit it, the anon troll is bang on WRT Sail Away.
4) My alerting Garth and Sail Away that he’d triangulated himself was done because I don’t want to see anyone hurt. If some nutter is obsessed enough with Sail Away to dig through the archives, my note isn’t going to be the key factor. The key factor is that Sail Away was stupid to do put it there in the first place.
5) I didn’t link my TV appearances. But, appearing on TV is occasionally my job. I’m not going to ditch my job because of some idiots on this blog.
6) There’s a massive difference between a person choosing to reveal personal info and a person revealing personal info about their family. The latter is idiotic and unethical. My partner was pissed when I sent Garth a pic of our dog and she was 100% right to be angry. I blundered hard. Sail Away simultaneously pretending he’s anonymous while revealing scads of info about people around him is extremely stupid. His family should be pissed, but they probably don’t know or aren’t aware of the risk.
DELETED
#86 Faron on 04.01.23 at 1:15 am
#76 Sail Away on 03.31.23 at 9:57 pm
Beware of Blinky
—————
Wow, haven’t had my tourettes mocked since 3rd grade aside from your earlier efforts. Maybe you are mistaking anger for pity?
—————
Identifying feature. Skunks have stripes, venomous snakes have triangular heads, rabid animals don’t fear humans, noteworthy people continually talk on social media about triangulating their obsession’s wife’s location.
Legit warning signs. If seen, keep eyes on, move away unnoticed if possible, avoid proximity, alert others. All standard stuff.
#83 the Jaguar
*****
That was funny!
#51 Faron
Thanks for the very detailed response.
I got a laugh from that video. The old guy shooting video on his phone with his fingers blocking the lens half the time. It reminded me of the Kodak Instamatic camera photos my dad took of us in the early 60s – his finger in front of the lens on the prints, and the 8mm movies he took on the Bell&Howell 8mm wind-up movie camera with the solid cast metal housing. Those flicks were pretty shaky and out of focus. LOL.
Good news for the weather next week – I’ll help those (hopefully) burly he-men haul our furniture into the cabin ASAP.
Thanks again!
#25 mj on 03.31.23 at 4:05 pm
I just noticed my green bank is limiting how much I can e transfer. 3,000 per day. 10,000 per week. 30,000 per month. Did anyone else notice something similar?
////////
Same.
ask them to increase it if you want
King Cash? It seems to me the only song politicians and bankers are singing these days is one praising a world without cash.
#59 ‘crowded’ – unfortunately we Canucks can’t hold ourselves up as models of fitness to the Yanks. Sadly, around half of Canada’s population falls into the obese/overweight category. I think the Yanks are in the 60%+ range so yes, we are ‘ahead’, but bottom line is there are still way too many Canadians who could stand to lose a few kilos.
#59 ‘crowded’ – oops, turns out my data is out of date. Some 60%+ of Canadians are overweight/obese (2015 statistics). Apparently 2/3rd’s (66%+) of Americans fall into those categories. Oof. Oh well, if food shortages become the norm we North Americans will be able to withstand famine conditions for quite a while.
Banks have started telling some clients to sell their homes”
Looks like banks don’t want to see ‘Forclosure” signs on front yards. (Or have they been told so).