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By Guest Blogger Tatiana Enhorning
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Most people in Canada no longer have Defined Benefit pensions, and that puts us in charge of building our own retirement funds and managing our investments in such a way as to ensure personal retirement goals are met. This is easier said than done.
For those who fall into this camp and are working on building a ‘DIY pension’ by investing assets for growth over the long term (at least seven years), it makes sense to take cues from people who are paid to do exactly that, and not to lose money. Institutional investors, like foundation, endowment and pension fund managers, often manage hundreds of billions of dollars in assets.
Those who are successful at it tend to have a huge focus on downside protection, but they also have to ensure the assets grow at a steady rate to beat inflation and achieve the stated investment mandate. There are also a few overarching themes that large institutional managers tend to employ, which we can apply to our own long-term investments, depending on individual tolerance for risk.
Low Cash Holdings
It is easy to feel that cash is the safest asset, but, holding large proportions of cash or cash equivalents presents its own risks. Cash is constantly being eroded by inflation, so if you are not making up for that with investment returns, you are losing money.
Secondly, if you decide to go to cash it is nearly impossible to choose the exact right time to re-enter the market later on. Institutional investors in general tend to hold low cash allocations in the 1%-5% range. Cash is a defensive asset and is of course beneficial if you need short term liquidity, but pension assets that have a seven-year time horizon or more do not require large cash holdings.
Diversification
As we all know, diversifying investments across many different countries, sectors and asset classes is key to both increased performance and decreased volatility. By decreasing correlation, we also decrease risk. Institutional investors know this well. Nevertheless, it remains quite common for retail investors, especially those who pick individual securities, to have a home-country bias. For example, many people own a house, which accounts for 50% or more of their net worth, and also invest close to home with Canadian bonds, banks, and large cap stocks they know and love. Suddenly their nest egg is inadvertently invested predominantly in Canada, the vast majority being in only one sector!
Institutional investors would not do this. Canada represents less than 5% of global GDP, so Canadian pension funds tend to keep their allocation to Canada below 20%. Institutional investors ensure they have global reach and spread assets over many asset classes as well. By avoiding having all our eggs in one basket, we will have a better chance of maintaining balance to help with long term performance protection during down markets.
Exposure to Higher Risk Assets
With a longer investment time horizon, more risk can potentially be employed, assuming that matches goals and risk tolerance. Institutional investors do buy high risk assets, but in a very careful and prudent way. They keep fairly low allocations, about 5%-15%, in emerging market countries and alternative asset classes like real estate or commodities.
Higher risk asset classes require more caution, so more time and resources are spent on researching each holding in-depth on a consistent basis. Investing in these areas can be very volatile and are not for everyone. But for institutional managers who have the knowledge, expertise and resources to choose and monitor investment properly, these can be very beneficial for long term portfolios. For example, institutional managers will often place analysts on the ground in emerging market countries where they invest to ensure they have constant visibility into the sector or any political or economic changes which could affect their investments.
When you have the knowledge and the time horizon to take on slightly more risk, these assets do not have to be avoided altogether, but they do have to be selected and managed correctly. Retail investors commonly have only about 4% in alternative investments. But institutional investors will often go much higher, not only to add alpha to the portfolio, but to decrease overall correlation, which increases the downside protection.
The key to investing your own retirement assets like the big dogs, is to keep balance in mind. We do need growth, but slow and steady wins the race. Institutional managers place a lot of focus on downside protection, but they also maintain good risk-adjusted returns over the long term.
Sound familiar?
Tatiana Enhorning is a Financial Advisor with Turner Investments. She builds and maintains portfolios for clients across Canada, and has been in the business as an asset manager for more than a decade.
101 comments ↓
Short term T Bills for the short term until this banking schnozzle unwinds.
#172 Faron on 03.14.23 at 1:31 pm
Hmmm. 75% of your day’s comments are about me. exceeds your own threshold for obsession. Pointing out an obscure physical feature of mine that was mentioned a year and a half ago (form of tourettes, your comment is a bit like making fun of someone’s stutter…..
#174 Faron on 03.14.23 at 1:34 pm
#152 Observer on 03.14.23 at 10:27 am
#121 Faron on 03.13.23 at 11:37 pm
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Perhaps he is a clever sociopath who keeps his dark side hidden from his much better half?
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Or a hermit crab from god-knows-where who has inhabited a personality just as Old Boot has inhabited several.
**********
Always with the projection. Maybe you should just change your screen name to “IMAX”.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9337986/#:~:text=Conclusions%3A%20TS%20patients%20have%20a,in%20a%20TS%20clinic%20population.
Alternative investments….So you’re saying… buy bitcoin?
Thanks Tatiana, good post!
Also, once the necessary retirement portfolio is secured, it can be tucked away like a loaf of bread and allowed to expand on its own. Use it or not, but it’s always in reserve.
Credit Suisse circling the drain.
Don’t worry more magic money coming to bail it out.
The SVB lend long borrow short strategy was same recklessness by British pension’s that bought down Truss. The BoE bailed them out and we’re seeing it in inflation there. I had same strategy borrowing on margin to buy preferreds and unwound it on a Garth post recommending it. Like having money with you guys where you do 60/40 with no leveraged hedging.
All solid, sound advice. I’m guilty of putting all my eggs in the Canadian basket just because I’m comfortable with the stocks and etf’s. I did take some of this blogs advice to heart a few days again when I cancelled an order for BCE and bought XIU instead. I so wanted that 6.75 dividend but remembered Garth and others advising against holding too many single stocks. I might dip my toe in the US markets by investing in SPY but would need to understand tax implications if any, what vehicle to hold it in ( reg, non-reg) etc. Thanks to all who contribute to this blog. It’s appreciated by many.
Yogism #62: “Appreciate the advice- and many happy returns!”.
Moodys downgrades US Banking system to unstable.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/moodys-cuts-outlook-on-us-banking-system-to-negative-citing-rapidly-deteriorating-operating-environment.html
Great article on building a future Garth through ETF’s. The best and safest method of philosophizing seems to be first to inquire diligently into the properties of things, and establishing those properties by experience, and then to proceed slowly to philosophy for the explanation of a subject.
Sticking with a well-groomed investment advisor is the safety way to building and protecting one’s Golden years.
The tech sector has shed 280,000 jobs so far that began in 2022 and still counting, about 130,000 of these jobs have been within the last ten weeks of 2023.
Zuckerberg just announced another 10,000-job layoffs at Meta to lower costs given our deteriorating economy on both sides of the border. Layoff’s for those types of numbers and are fairly high paying IT positions must eventually come home to roost. Keeping an eye on Corporate America from a wall street perspective for us investors.
Elon was the laughing stock of Americans, but the out-spoken critics of the billionaire’s themselves soon followed suit regarding Elon having found the right recipe for the much-needed bottom line, it has since become a target for the Tech sector, I wonder if they have invited Elon for lunch after their childish rant.
The Feds are in a tight situation right now, sure the US inflation has eased off a little, but it’s still very high in comparison from where we need to be right now.
There is an underlying inflation pressure that cannot be ignored, with January cost of living increasing .05% and February increasing 0.4%, the Feds are between a hard ball and a rock right now, do they show mercy or plow forward with rate increases.
The United States banking system caused a lot of anxiety for everyone, with the collapse of two banks such as the First Republic Bank and the giant empire like Silicon Valley Bank. Depositors rushed in quicly to withdraw their funds. SVB was the second biggest failure in U.S history behind Washington Mutual In 2008.
Silicon supposedly had more than 200 billion in assets, all depositors had been assured by Biden to get access to their deposit money.
The big question is, how can the banks get into such deep trouble with no warning signs to the public, but suddenly overnight, the Feds appear to have their immediate solution good or bad, why is the general public not informed before the catastrophe happens, is the exposure known or hidden from the financial regulators? Nothing goes from boom to bust overnight.
Our Canadian six big banks are quite safe, but there will be complications for those with operations south of the border, it is a given. TD bank looks like it took the biggest beating for causing our jitterbugs. Time will tell what banks have purchased recent acquisitions in the U.S, all their business deals are quite often slow getting the info to us, only then will the Canadian bank stocks settle into their true value.
RBC has had a big growing stake in the California market recently , but we have heard little too little on how they made out with those purchases and the complete list of all the names for these purchases, who are we to know, its only our investments.
Quote of the day: When looking at things from 10,000 feet high, there is no dignity quite so impressive, and no independence quite so important, as living within your means
How to make 1 milllion ? Start with 100 mil and invest in alternative investments and / or hedge funds (which hedge with alternatives) . 99% of individual investors should stay far , far away from alternative investments if one wants to SWAN . The other 1% would have a proper adviser and mitigate the risk.
Surely hope you don’t recommend alternatives to anyone with a portfolio under 20 mil.
On a separate note let’s talk Capital Gains taxation as I feel we have diverted form the original purpose ,to stimulate investment in the local ,national economy. We really should not be giving a 50% discount for investments in companies that do not actually operate in Canada , even less so in emerging markets .
SVB is a prime example of some greaterfools putting all their eggs in one basket, and reaping the consequences. Meanwhile, Canadastan’s Melanie Joly has called for regime change in Russia. Oooooooooo, the Russkies must be shakin’ in their boots! Did Melanie get the standard “embrace” with the 1000 yard stare from our p.m. like the other female rookie cabinet ministers? Like J.W.R. did? Kinda creepy if you ask me.
Banks can do nothing to prevent disaster, bailouts mean more inflation.
Raising rates to battle inflation is akin to emperor is naked, exposing banks fragile over leveraged financials, derivatives..
Magic money bailout fund is almost kaput after bailing out only 3 banks.
Banks privatize profit and socialize debt.
#5 DOWn
Google “Liquidity Coverage Ratio” so you have a clue what it means.
Credit Suisse, LCR, p. 4, bottom line, in bold.
https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/about-us/docs/investor-relations/financial-regulatory-disclosures/financial-reports/lcr-cs-holding-usa-2q22.pdf
= 258%
Google “Royal Bank Canada Liquidity Coverage Ratio”
= 145%
and,
TD 113.3%
BMO 129%
CIBC 123%
Scotiabank 122%
Per your logic, which of the above will need a bailout first?
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PS, why it matters:
Read last paragraph, p. 92 for SVB
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000719739/dffa5746-7f80-4d88-9d3a-65b793df5d52.pdf
US Fed obliges only very largest Int’l bank to follow Basel NSFR (min. 100% = Net Stable Funding Ratio, e.g., Credit Suisse = 95%, CIBC = 115%). They have Tier 2 and 3 for US Banks, LCRs:
85%, 70%
the majority of US banks are not required to follow the NSFR or LCR standards at all.
https://www.ft.com/content/c95e7708-b903-405d-a017-963844eb3dc3
SVB did not disclose theirs but read between lines and what has happened to them.
RE:#3 Ruscas on 03.14.23 at 1:55 pm
Alternative investments….So you’re saying… buy bitcoin?
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Well, that’s what the “pros” did….
(Joking and not joking)
California is about 40% of USA ‘s GDP
California is getting hammered…on many fronts, not the least of which is weather
EV’s?
California power grid? approx. 50% of their electricity is generated by natural gas powered plants.
No way possible that “renewables” solar and wind can provide power for projected EV demand etc.
Given the weather events…we shall see if the Gov’ts will allow California reservoirs to top up…or follow past practices of draining them and create even more man -made crisises.
Keep an eye on California…moreso from BC..as the Loonie – Left appear to be in power from BC down the West Coast to Mexico.
Pretty sad state of things for Canadians. The CPP is very limited, and then people are left to the mercy of various leeches and schemes, of which the big winners are those playing with other people’s money.
Compare that to most other countries, where essentially all workers have a DB-like pension.
Tatiana – post is interesting.
But what about gold?
Mr. Garth hate gold. He probably never bought and not wearing gold chain like others (and like me!) when he was 20-30 years old!
In last couple years too many central banks different countries buying gold like crazy. If it is not good investment why they doing it? A?
p.s. Tatiana is popular Russian name. Are you speaking / reading in Russian?
I’m posting a bunch today because I smoked my foot on something and it’s rendered me home bound with an ice wrap.
Poolside would be a better place to lick my wounds but it’s cooking over 30 outside and the pools been drained for some untimely tile repairs so that’s not an option.
So I’ve opted for A/C and am stewing whilst chilling my foot, reflecting on my disgust with the banking system and financial markets and how they continue to blow smoke up our derrières, I think i can still say that?
Why am I so disgusted?
Lots of reasons but a big one that’s especially personal is after buying some very high risk ETF’s which bet against the banking system and were making loads of profit were then crippled when the ‘circuit breaker’ was initiated?
Could someone please explain to me how that is even legal?
I equate it to going Vegas and am winning large so the house changes the rules letting me still play with no chance of winning.
Cost me a s…load of cash into the 100’s of thousands.
The house always wins, even if it appears they have lost.
Rinse and repeat.
#5 DOWn
The point of my prior comment is simple.
Cdn banks are liquid and rock solid, oh, and so is Credit Suisse.
Because of VERY LAX US Fed enforcement, requirements of Basel III reforms after the GFC (LCR, NSFR) their Laissez-faire approach resulted in SVB going down the tubes – dung management.
Unfortunately, solid banks like Canada’s Big 5 and CS got kicked in the nards stock value wise because of fear contagion.
To me, these are ill informed and irrational investors in Mr. Market. But there is a glimmer of hope today of some sanity:
Dow closes more than 300 points higher, snaps 5-day losing streak as bank shares rebound: Live updates
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Although I have to say trust in their Regional Banks may well be misplaced. Still, happy for the rebound today.
And Team Canada, no longer nose diving.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=YTD
Even fined to near death CSGN managed to near break even.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CSGN:SWX
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It too, like Team Canada, is a solid bank provided it keeps its nose out of money laundering etc. Has a new Chairman, see what he does.
If you own it, CSGN, have some faith as I do in the Cdn and Swiss Banks, way, way more faith than I have in Italia’s banks even my Italian champ stress tested Fineco bank.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/FBK:BIT
which oddly, DID NOT nose dive at all as did Team Canada and CSGN banks.
Imagine that?
Little Italian Bank outperforms the Yodelers and Team Poutine/Beavertail during an ill perceived banking crisis.
Oh, the PATHOS.
Trans Mountain expansion to cost $30.9 billion, completion expected for early 2024
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland says TMX needs third-party funding to complete the project through banks or public debt markets. She reiterated the federal government plans to sell the pipeline once it is complete.
https://www.rebelnews.com/trans_mountain_expansion_to_cost_30_9_billion_completion_expected_for_early_2024
According to Trans Mountain Corp (TMX), the cost of the taxpayer-owned Trans Mountain pipeline expansion jumped 44% from last year’s estimate ($22.35 billion) to a whopping $30.9 billion.
The Crown corporation said it is trying to secure external financing to fund the remaining cost of the project which they hope will start shipping oil in the first quarter of 2024.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government bought the pipeline from Kinder Morgan Inc. in 2018 for $4.5 billion to ensure the expansion got built, drawing sharp criticism from environmental groups.
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COMMENT:
What the Hey is going on?
Last summer we drove through areas this was being built…it is an engineering marvel(which implies big $$$$ !!!)
Yet..how do we square not just the initial investment, but the ma$$ive cost overruns…morseo with our politicians lobbying to reduce GHG , the Carbon Tax etc. ?
With TMX…are they actually trying to crash the economy with some sort of slow- acting poison- pill ?
#14
Thanks I appreciate the response, I was basing my projection on charts that were explaining why some 20 plus banks had trading halted.
At the end of the day it’s a regulation issue, regulation that the banks have adopted willfully.
Have you any insights as to how this is going to unwind with the derivative’s exposure?
Before the transition to polymer, cash was very good as chewing material to us raccoons.
Think we love biting your electrical wiring and making dens inside your hard wall?
Keeping hoarding cash Scrooges. A $100 in 1980 doesn’t buy that many food at Galen Weston’s grocery stores.
Tatiana, a very informative post. However, I’d caution DIY investors to remember that what they have to invest is a minnow compared to the corporate whale, so they have to tailor their investment strategy accordingly. The fact that a rather large percentage of managed funds do not ‘out perform’ the market is something else to be aware of. Learn from others mistakes (hello there, SVB) & don’t think it can’t happen to you.
Tatiana, one thing I’m wondering about is how much protection diversification actually provides nowadays. The GFC of 2008 was a brutal demonstration of how intertwined global finances have become. I would imagine they are at least as intertwined today or even more so. So it seems possible that diversification may no longer provide much protection. in addition there may be tax implications if one’s foreign holdings exceed a certain amount. Given those realities, would you still counsel investors to limit their ‘home-centric’ investments to only 20% of their overall portfolio?
Great article. Glad to hear that 20 per cent is sufficient for Canadian assets. I have exactly 20 per cent and was just questioning whether that was a bit low. Good to know.
Climate Activists Glue Themselves to a Tanker Full of Cooking Oil Mistaking It For Crude Oil
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/climate-activists-glue-themselves-to-a-tanker-full-of-cooking-oil-mistaking-it-for-crude-oil/ar-AA18zZND?ocid=winp2sv1plustaskbar&cvid=06e54038463a4675a0b2b264fa94172a&ei=17
T and Garth, this has to be said:
Inflation gauge increased 0.4% in February, as expected and up 6% from a year ago
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/cpi-inflation-february-2023-.html
I mean WTF?
So they, Mr. Market, are happy that higher inflation was expected.
Irrational much?
Actually good news, Mr. Market does NOT like surprises and never has in the decades I have taken passing interest in its machinations.
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#5 DOWn
You are on your own here. All I read is that the money is huge, dwarfs the World Economy and what if it implodes?
If you listen to Nouriel Roubini, we will all be killed and should have been at least 10X already.
In Ital-Canadian speak:
I keel you once, I keel you twice.
Myself, I pay no attention other than reading the odd Armageddon clickbait article, that seems to surface every time Mr. Market is having a hiccup, and the reason for that is:
Nothing I can do about it but I love juicy financial gossip.
If it happens, we are all doomed. So don’t sweat the could of, should of, would of stuff in the meantime.
Deal in REALITY and what you can personally CONTROL.
All I can tell you.
#26 jim
Laughing so hard I’m having trouble typing this.
THAT was GOOD.
#27
Thanks good advice, don’t worry about what you can’t change….
But the Circuit Breaker sucker punch.
Unbelievable.
why is a woman writing on a misogynist blog?
Interesting that you mention big investment fund managers. The boss of CPPIB was in the news not too long ago advocating for cherry picking investments. Basically saying that active management is trendy again. Sounded like he just wanted to justify higher fees.
Are the big dogs “opportunistically rebalancing” (not timing the market) by adding to financials sector, during volatile periods such as the past few days?
Secondly, if you decide to go to cash it is nearly impossible to choose the exact right time to re-enter the market later on.-Tatiana
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Perfect is the enemy of good.
No need to time it exactly, it’s like horseshoes… close is good enough
SloOOoOoooWWww
…..West CoAST
……fLUuuUUsSSssHHHh
Sheriff Reveals How Cartels Have Taken Over Rural California | Jeremiah LaRu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpNtnPzc7fU
Highly recommend these videos on “California Insider”
Host is great….lets the interview participants talk.
BC(and other jurisdictions) is following California’s path- to- oblivion pattern.
The premise is to “legalize drugs”…to “take the profit motive out “, regulate them…better “safer” quality and reduce crime…blah blah blah..
Well …. guess what?
IT’S FAR WORSE NOW !!!!
Gov’ts have reduced the penalty for possession…and in California getting caught growing marijuana outside the law , ….regardless of how many plants…is not a crime…simply a $500 “fine”.
As Gov’t (almost by definition screws things up)…legalizing marijuana sales tends to put onerous taxes and added cost to legal growers/sellers…and the criminal element quickly realizes this and creates a massive black market far worse than when marijuana was simply illegal across the board .
Cartels are setting up massive marijuana grow -opps in California. They are into human trafficking…destroying the environment..stealing water…etc etc….. yet the authorities are seriously underfunded and undermanned, but the upper levels of Gov’t show no appetite to intervene.
Here in BC….we will see the same mess unfold with our Leftie Loonies.
Hence….
……the premise that Gov’t is either incompetent ….and/or knows exactly the chaos that will ensue ……and yet the average citizen either can’t see this and/or is in denial.
These Big Brother tactics are classic to hide bigger issues….such as the economy etc. etc..
So on the “invest like the big dogs” theme, I thought I would check on the recent CPP investment in a Utah
company. Some posted that the investment was $12.5B.
That would be wrong.
https://www.cppinvestments.com/public-media/headlines/2023/qualtrics-to-be-acquired-by-silver-lake-and-cpp-investments-for-12-5-billion/
“The transaction is fully financed by equity commitments from Silver Lake and co-investors together with $1.75 billion in equity from CPP Investments and $1 billion in debt.”
#7 Kelowna kid on 03.14.23 at 2:29 pm
I might dip my toe in the US markets by investing in SPY but would need to understand tax implications if any, what vehicle to hold it in ( reg, non-reg) etc.
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SPY goes in RRSP to avoid the 15% dividend hold back.
Or in TFSA and hope for growth.
SPY is right at or near the top of the market purchase activity so far this year. These purchases indicate support of all companies/equities in the index, as the administrator creates new shares of SPY, purchasing them.
High rates with high debt, supply chain disorder/inflation, all causing many companies to get in to zombie status. Bad p/e and bad d/e aplenty.
Therefore, SPY and DIA even PDC seem pretty limited in growth anytime soon this year. Any index ETF.
What is the flaw in my train of thought?
Just buy three or four, perhaps five low cost ETF’s depending on your situation and asset location needs then forget it. Over the long term, that will beat the results of any active management with virtual certainty.
What type of beast dog is in that photo?
#18 VladTor on 03.14.23 at 3:59 pm —‘p.s. Tatiana is popular Russian name. Are you speaking / reading in Russian?’
I’m guessing Polish versus Rooskie, though there has always been a great deal of fence jumping and claims staked in that part of the world. The word ‘Tribal’ may have originated there… Garth has some Polish connections as recently declared on the weekend post. Wasn’t there also a Polish band at someone’s wedding? Let that sink in.
170-171 Steven – thank you for these links
“The Federal Reserve is prepared to address any liquidity pressures that may arise.”
Sounds like the BOC when it took CMHC mortgages as “reserves”.
So here’s the kicker. Seeing as all is guaranteed, can the feds now continue with their interest rate increases?
I don’t do this myself, but I think there would be nothing wrong with putting 100% of your retirement money into a target date fund with a low MER, especially inside a tax-sheltered vehicle. While it wouldn’t be tailored to your specific needs or risk profile, neither is a defined benefit pension that so many Canadians love. It has the advantage of simplicity, being professional managed, and low risk.
Tatiana, I’d be interested in hearing your take on that.
#34
In the summers I spend time in an area known as Pender Harbour on the Sunshine Coast of BC.
It’s about an hour out of Gibsons and half an hour out of Sechelt, with a nice drive along the ocean for much of it.
Anyway a few times over the past 3 years I’ve spoken with Mexicans in both Sechelt and Pender who are sporting gang tattoo’s.
I know that they are gang affiliated because I’ve seasonally lived in MX for over ten years and I’ve seen many of the tats.
They are mostly covered up with long sleeves and bandannas but the tear drops are hard to hide.
There’s been some hardball violence, the demographics are definitely changing as is the drug culture on the Coast.
#37 Wrk.dover
No flaw.
As Tatiana says “Exposure to Higher Risk Assets” and I do that, you will need to take on higher risk assets this year to get the returns you want. Eschew growth, go for value ETFs as Ryan has correctly recommended.
My ETFs/ETNs betas vary from <1 to 2.4. If young, keep high risk low as Tatiana recommends. If you have been at it a longer time, like me the Paleo, take the plunge and increase from her recommended 5-15% weight.
Risk. Reward.
Safety in ETFs. Stay the course, no market timing … you will do better flipping a coin on the latter. Do as Garth and others keep saying, park your div stocks into a TFSA (I do that, but as a Non-Resident can't add to it).
Do higher risk intelligently. You read an informed investor, you know what to do.
If there's a will, there's a way.
Is that pooch a Cane Corso? I have one who lives near me and he’s 165 lbs of pure mush. He will lick you and ask if he can sit on your lap.
#39 crowdedelevatorfartz
Google Lens says:
Cane Corso (Cane corso italiano)
Dog breed
Sticking with Italian advice, Google translate:
https://www.annuncianimali.it/cani-razze/cane-corso/
I liked it that they said “Dog not at all suitable for apartment life” as a Con. No dung Sherlock but I guess, had to be said.
Typically Italian, it dislikes everyone save it Master?
[Like my 2 Nonne neighbors, best video surveillance system at 0 cost]
€250/”puppy”
#26 jim on 03.14.23 at 4:39 pm
Climate Activists Glue Themselves to a Tanker Full of Cooking Oil Mistaking It For Crude Oil
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COMMENT:
Leftie Loonie hero Vladimir Lenin had a quote about the best way to control the opposition is to LEAD it.
( Duly note Lenin was funded by rich oligarchs…as I have submitted many times previously …..COMMUNISM is the upper 1% trying to wipe out the MIDDLE CLASS and create a 99% subservient slave class.
Their tactic is to create major societal upheaval…aka utopian “Worker’s Paradise”…..a power void …and then
the void is quickly filled by an often ruthless totalitarian state. Recall Russia and China post WW2 )
These “useful idiots” protestors tend to be hired via some local Craigslist Commie recruiters…
….. and the “useful idiots” have no clue about the actual issues,
…..yet the General Public often ass-u-mes otherwise.
BANNED
Heck, to get rich, all you need to do is invest $15k/year at 10%.
30 years gives $3M
40 years=$8M
50 years: $21M
Like falling off a log. Don’t make it hard.
The risks -TOO MANY Dogs https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/5-year-old-boy-killed-in-dog-attack-on-northern-first-nation-1.6774194
The blog needs a new theme, how about palm trees and the beach, like everyones favourite retirement location.
PPL might be a good investment right about now:
The Haisla First Nation on British Columbia’s northern coast has been granted a provincial environmental assessment certificate for a floating liquefied natural gas facility.
The B.C. government says the nation, in partnership with Pembina Pipeline Corp., proposes to use electricity to operate the LNG facility and export terminal.
The $3.28-billion terminal will be supplied with natural gas from the Coastal GasLink pipeline, which is still under construction.
https://www.castanet.net/news/BC/416075/3-28-billion-Indigenous-led-LNG-project-gets-B-C-environmental-certificate#416075
Another timely post Tatiana.
I’m in a “balanced and diversified” portfolio but I also think there will be a lot of market volatility over the next 6 -12 months.
Am I wrong to sit on a bit of extra cash that is coming in?
Say 7-10% of the value of the current (untouched) portfolio.
Wait out the current craziness and max out my RRSP’s ( for the tax break) and TFSA’s next Jan.- Feb 2024.
Asking for a friend…. :)
#43
Yeah ,I’ve seen the same tattoos, ms 13 on the back of the neck on Vancouver Island . They came just like the last 40,000 at Roxham road last year. They create jobs for the cops ,the courts, jails etc. Thank T2 for that. Doesn’t make sense but it’s part of the planned collapse.
Our Rulers are gunning the next stage of Global WW3, which I allege began March 2020.
I said this back in 2020: what to do with all the furloughed and laid off workers but a War Draft? The tech layoffs intensify.
“A Russian jet struck the propeller of a U.S. Reaper drone over the Black Sea, forcing U.S. forces to bring down the drone, the Pentagon said, one of the first direct military confrontations between the two nations’ forces since the war in Ukraine began more than a year ago.”
————
#82 kommykim on 03.13.23 at 7:51 pm
^I never mentioned Balloons previously.
You believed every harebrained consp. theory the media peddled to you. That, 3 years of curfews, closed borders, closed small businesses; armed ON-QC border checkpoints; domestic passports & checkpoints; no Sportsball, “bubbles”, Arrows on supermarket floors; banning purchases of “non essential goods”, early last calls somehow, on some planet would make you healthy. Straight out of a medical text book right?
What will you fall for next time?
DELETED
A do it yourself pension requires a decent 6 figure income which not everyone gets. When you have a combination capitalist communist system you have capitalists that see financial virtue in paying what the law allows and communistic governments that see virtue in doing the same thing.
Just don’t emulate the big dog OMERS – they did 4.2% last year. That’s with a massive team of investors and huge overhead. terrible.
#2 Old Boot on 03.14.23 at 1:53 pm
So you are calling Garth a liar. Hmmm.
Was this posted?
Richer than we think*
*(if your net worth is at least 1.7 million loonies)
https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/debt-costs-grow-record-pace
Posthaste: Canadians’ interest payments are growing at the fastest pace in more than 30 years
Canadians are paying 45% more interest than a year ago
—————-
Almost back to 2019 Normal guys! What our Rulers want for us. Just Two More Weeks?
“Moody’s Investors Service cut its view on the entire banking system to negative from stable.
The big three rating firm cited a “‘rapidly deteriorating operating environment” despite regulators’ efforts to shore up the industry.
In a harsh blow to an already-reeling sector, Moody’s Investors Service cut its view on the entire banking system to negative from stable.”
Would anyone want that dog in the picture at the top anywhere near their children? I wouldn’t, it looks like a hell-hound. Why not just put a tamed lion on a leash.
@#53 Outrage
“They create jobs for the cops ,the courts, jails etc. ”
++++
“Catch and Release”
When 5% of prolific offenders cause 50% of the crime….one wonders why people with Hundreds of charges and convictions aren’t locked up for a very very long time….
Not a “three strikes you’re out” Law….but perhaps a “50 strikes” Law?
“100 strikes” Law?
Surely a person that has 50 or 100 convictions is a “prolific”, career” criminal…
No bail, no plea bargains….you are done for 5, 10, 15, 20 years…
The Judicial Industrial Complex wouldnt know what to do with itself if criminals were actually incarcerated…and crime actually dropped.
Ok but back to SVB, and I’ll tie it in to diversification at the end, I’d like to propose a maxim:
“Hedging is a myth”.
Or as Zero Hedge likes to say, “On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”
Let’s look at the government bonds that everyone is saying SVB should have hedged. So I don’t know exactly what the portfolio looks like, so let’s say they had one issue of 5 year bonds at 0.5%. How do you hedge that against a possible move to 5%? Ten times the strike? Who on earth is going to survive underwriting that? No one. So they always have a term, say 1 year, and the counterparty calculates how much is the most the bond could move in that period.
The only way to hedge a 5 year bond to maturity is to sell it.
But here is a more fundamental conundrum. The person offering the swap isn’t going to do it “at the money”, because they need a profit, both so they can eat but also to compensate for the risk they just took on. So the swap is going to look something more like fixed for variable – fee. Well the problem with hedging 0.5% is there isn’t a lot of fixed to cover the fee. So you are coming out of the gate losing money on your swap. So at a certain point it can’t be done, because it looks awful on your financials.
Then there is the question of counterparty risks. If all the banks are laying their interest rate exposure off, who is writing all the swaps? Is there some entity large enough to be infinitely long rate when everyone else is trying to go short? Who is that entity? So when you are dealing with a market the size of treasuries, you run out of counterparties really quickly.
Hedging works ok in commodity markets where buyers and sellers are both looking for future price certainty, but only for fairly short duration. It’s hard to get anything done much further out than 3 years. So what people end up doing is taking a huge position in the near month meant to hedge out the one year position, or the 1 year against the 5, etc. It works most of the time, but not always, and you have to roll it every month.
And then of course there are the shareholders. They are all happy when the hedges “make money” because prices fell, but they get all cranky when the hedges “lose money” because prices rose. Yet the cashflow is much more stable. They came much closer to earning what they predicted. Still, no hedging program survives a full cycle. As soon as the hedging program “loses money” it gets cancelled. The exception being if your lender makes you do it, because they want to get paid even if the forecast are wrong.
So there is no hedge that works for long. The instrument will be wrong, it will be too expensive, there won’t be sufficient liquidity, and someone ends up holding the bag so there is always counterparty risk.
Now banks in particular are in the business of matching two specific items of different tenure: Short term deposits against long term loans. It didn’t matter that SVB had a bunch of treasuries, they could have easily had more mortgages or other loans. The point is the deposits are demand money and the loans have a variety of long dates. So when the depositors decide they all want their money back today, the bank can’t do it. They have no way to cash in all the treasuries or mortgages or whatever. They sure as shooting have all the “money”, but they can’t get it today. So they very much depend on the fact not everyone is going to withdraw everything all at once. That’s what happened to SVB. And yes, it can happen to Citi or TD too. Size doesn’t matter. All that matters is the size of the herd that gets spooked.
Anyway, all the real economists saw this coming when the central banks forced rates negative (in real terms). You can’t muck with the laws of nature like that. It will come back to haunt you, one way or another. And here it is. There are more banks that have this problem. Many more. We’ll probably be hearing about it for the next 6 months, although it won’t be headlines anymore because people get bored easily.
Be careful out there folks. And good luck. And buy all the things, because there are no “safe” banks when it comes to ZIRP and the madness of crowds. Banks depend on a bit of sanity.
#49 Sail Away Heck, to get rich, all you need to do is invest $15k/year at 10%.
30 years gives $3M,40 years=$8M,50 years: $21M
Like falling off a log. Don’t make it hard.”
Amazing compound interest!!!
Looks great…. on paper.
#57 Jack on 03.14.23 at 8:56 pm
Just don’t emulate the big dog OMERS – they did 4.2% last year. That’s with a massive team of investors and huge overhead. terrible.
_________
Ontario Teachers, the biggest of dogs, did 4.0
#60 Really? Not!
Absolutely! Depends on how you train them. Bloodline, past history, etc.
#60 Really? Not! on 03.14.23 at 9:34 pm
Why not just put a tamed lion on a leash.
—
Because dogs have coevolved to cooperate with humans (and humams them) for tens of millennia. Lions just want to eat slow bipeds. Seems pretty obvs.
Appreciate your emphasis on preserving capital while taking on moderate, well-considered risk. Slow and steady may be too boring for some but it really does work.
#60 Really? Not! on 03.14.23 at 9:34 pm
Would anyone want that dog in the picture at the top anywhere near their children? I wouldn’t, it looks like a hell-hound. Why not just put a tamed lion on a leash.
*********
It would be a thought that crossed my mind. Bull massives to, they look menacing. But sometimes the bigger dogs are gentle giants to kids, not so much other bad natured adults. All in how you raise them. I have a kangal kuchi shepard dog. He is set to be $165 lbs and is currently 27.5 inches at the shoulders 6.5 months old. Have to remember he is a big ol floppy puppy who loves siting on your lap. He is great with kids, other dogs and the mail man. He’ll stop growing one day right?
Wondering if Canada’s Credit Unions are safe? Old friend is thinking of moving his accts to a the bank?
But why do most people in Canada no longer have Defined Benefit pensions?
Write a detailed explanation on how that has happened as productive sored over the years.
Does the government of Canada actually do any governing? Or just pander to banks and corporations.
Geographic diversification and even arbitrage opps have all but disappeared due to the interrelated nature of markets, and programmed trading. Example, if NYSE drops, the Tokyo drops the next day
#69 april on 03.14.23 at 11:22 pm
Wondering if Canada’s Credit Unions are safe? Old friend is thinking of moving his accts to a the bank?
_____________________________________
The TNLB at my cred assured us deposits were FDIC.
Years later, I learned not. NS creds are backed by NS, not CA. NS can’t print replacement money like FDIC can.
So, our TSFA accts made the move to a big five bank in a heartbeat!
Now, all informed up via this community service blog, they are in self directed brokerage accts in the big five bank.
It’s getting Fky out there people, park earned savings safely!
Just sitting at the airport waiting to get on a Flair Aircraft.
Joking.
My TFSA almost took me to Brokeback Mountian last year, but I still scrounged up enough to fly United…
M48BC
#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.23 at 8:09 pm
Am I wrong to sit on a bit of extra cash that is coming in?
______________________________________
I just ordered another tangible asset manufactured from five hundred pounds of cold blue steel @ $6.00 per, that can do something productive. I missed the 20% gain it has had in the past year. I’ll enjoy the next one.
Or do you think such things will deflate like currency does?
Re: #69 april on 03.14.23 at 11:22 pm
Upstart credit unions in Ontario like Saven Financial are most at risk.
My pension strategy is to drain all my RRSP’s convert one to a RRIF this year and drain it starting this year to get the pension tax credit for the next 7 years. Then throw almost everything into something that makes a capital gain and pays no income or dividends to avoid the OAS clawback at age 70. I have two defined pensions.
After watching the Frontline show last night on PBS about the state of American markets and since my oldest kid will be going to university this fall, I’ve pulled my RESP funds from the market this morning, to GICs.
#70 NeolithicMan on 03.15.23 at 12:06 am
Xxxxxxxxx
During the GFC the companies were exposed to the pension risk and determined they did not want that risk. They derisked by getting out of offering the db benefit and changed to dc benefits or blended offerings. In a sense, they were unable to manage the risk and downloaded that to the employees. Thx.
#62 Nonplused
I think the investors made a brilliant move, knew how the bank was backed as does anyone with a bit of financial acumen, most likely bought puts or shorted the stock, withdrew their cash and then got everyone else to withdraw theirs, it gets out on social media and panic sets in and the run occurs.
Share price craters, investors then closes their short position and then buys up shares at bargain basement prices and rides up price 50% plus and then cashes out to retail who want to get in on it now that the most money has been made. It is now safe for retail again to invest at almost back to pre crisis price and they will seem wise to buy and make 5%-7% return in a year.
These are the times when one makes “bank” so to speak on the volatility and those who stay safe are the ones crying about the wealthy 1% ,who see these events as opportunity and take advantage of them.
Look who is being hammered on social media, the poor tellers who got their $14k bonus just before the rug pull, got to love it, give everyone a scape goat to vent their “outrage” on and all is well.
One should watch Desmond Morris series “The Human Animal” to see how easy it is to run circles around people because of their behavior, especially those who blindly follow social media, you know the “herd” mentality that runs our society now.
@#74 Wrk.dvr
“Or do you think such things will deflate like currency does?”
+++
Cold steel eh?
Perhaps Egg Futures is the place to invest.
With the Avian Flu decimating the little cluckers.
Bought10,000 shares Credit Suisse at $1.80 today since it was going to zero and sold at $2.11, easy $3100 before leaving for work.
First Republic downgraded to junk.
They can’t just keep printing, this has to unwind on its own at some point.
It’s going to be painful but it’s the consequences of trying to repeatedly prop the markets up with cheap money.
Cheap money , almost free.
They should of learned in 2008.
15% Canadian Equities (Diversified broad market)
40% U.S. Equities (Diversified broad market)
5% Global Equities (ex N.A.)
5% EM Equities
5% Preferred Shares
5% REITs
5% High Yield Bonds
5% Low risk Bonds (Govt, municipal, AAA, etc.)
3% GICs
5% Utilities
5% Private Debt
2% Cash
Wait patiently.
#53 Outrage on 03.14.23 at 8:19 pm
#43
Yeah ,I’ve seen the same tattoos, ms 13 on the back of the neck on Vancouver Island . They came just like the last 40,000 at Roxham road last year. They create jobs for the cops ,the courts, jails etc. Thank T2 for that. Doesn’t make sense but it’s part of the planned collapse.
=========================
COMMENT:
Right out of the COMMUNIST playbook….again.
During Bolshevik Revolution, (BTW…it only took about 20,000 guerilla terrorists trained in New Jersey to take down Russia)…they murdered police and released criminals including murderers.
The objective was to terrorize the citizens…..after the citizens were conned they would be getting a “Workers Paradise.” Then the new Communist Gov’t swept in and created hell for the Russians.
Keep in mind the Allies supported Russia in both WW 1 and WW 2. Don’t think what’s happening now in Western world was planned long ago?…..hint “Cultural Marxism”.
Our Gov’ts want to create “Order out of Chaos”.
If one has studied REAL history…its the same old – same olde….
#42 Caffeine Monkey:
Great question. Generally, target date mutual funds have very high fees because they are doing the work of to re-allocating your assets from equities to more fixed income as you near your target date. It of course depends on your personal situation and if you would like to pay a premium for that. Secondly, depending on your goals, these target date funds can rebalance you to a much higher fixed income weighting than you need, often nearly 0% in fixed income by the target date. Again, it depends on your personal risk tolerance, time horizon in retirement and needs for income, but that is often far too risk-averse for client who are nearing retirement.
#73 Flop… on 03.15.23 at 7:57 am
Just sitting at the airport waiting to get on a Flair Aircraft.
Joking.
=====================
Actually….as noted from my perch…
I am literally right under the flight path…have been for the last few days……..FLAIR …is alive and well…seen several flights.
Further to this…approx. 95% of the flights are Canadian airlines(ie Air Canada, West Jet etc)…very few international airlines.
10- 4,…. over and out.
#62 Nonplused
Great insights…… after the fact.
Sounds like a college professor….. in theory… on paper.
Only people who had access to the ‘club only” info could’ve done it—the likes of GS. (wonder how GS never loses money)
Ok, it’s how you raise them, agreed. You know what’s really obvious faron/Yukon elvis/Nefertiti? Your sarcasm just triggered me. It’s curtain’s for you, intellectual light-weight basement dweller. Try not feeding your dogs for a week and see how they react to their human. Had a friend who passed suddenly, unfortunately his dogs ended up having him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. True story. No loyalty when fido and fi-fi are hungry.
Many of us have employer RRSP with some kind of employer match… which is then managed by an insurance company, and invested in IC mutual funds.
Where is the downside to transferring from employer fund to personal RRSP, and investing in low-cost, but similarly functional XIU and SPY?
So simple and obvious there must be a rule or law to make it prohibitive?
#70 ‘Neo’ – DB pensions are expensive, insofar as I am aware the most expensive type of pension because the benefit is guaranteed. So contributions tend to increase in response to external factors such as volatile markets, inflation, actuarial updates regarding longevity etc. Also, DB pensions work on a ‘hockey stick’ curve – hardly any benefits for a long, straight stick of time & then once someone has contributed into the pension for 25 years or more the yield curves sharply upward – the blade of the stick. I was told about this by a senior coworker & can testify that once I too had contributed for 25 years my annual pension statement of what I might receive if I retired suddenly went from ‘slit your wrists, you are never going to be able to live on that’ to ‘good heavens, I might actually be able to retire one day!’. Seriously, according to my statements up until the 25 year point the amount I would receive if I retired was LESS than what ‘full’ CPP would pay – yet I was contributing roughly 3 times the amount of what I paid into CPP to my DB company pension plan.
Last but not least, I’ve always stated that since CPP is a DB pension plan that the easiest way to ensure all Canadians had sufficient income in retirement was to hike the premiums to match what is paid by those who do have such company pension plans. The modest increases to CPP premiums for that outcome have resulted in howls of angst, as both employees & employers claim they can’t afford to pay that much. Unfortunately when it comes to DB pensions you have to pay more to receive more, plus ensure you meet the criteria for the best pension outcome. Lots of folks simply presume they will get ‘maximum’ CPP without ever looking into what they have to do to actually get it, including waiting to age 65. So when they do retire, they tend to be both shocked & disappointed by the actual benefit they receive, because it didn’t match up to what they thought they would get.
A bit more than just a paper cut on the markets today…..
Markets are getting hammered on hump Wednesday!!
#88 Really? Not!
Can’t feed the dog? Don’t get one.
In your friend’s case, the man was DEAD. So what difference? just a carcass. At least the dogs made good out of him before it rotted away.
Oh btw, Western pioneers who landed in America, resorted to eating their dead, due to lack of food. Talk about animal instinct and self-preservation!
The 1993 movie “ALIVE” is a good start.
#77 Editrix on 03.15.23 at 9:23 am
After watching the Frontline show last night on PBS about the state of American markets and since my oldest kid will be going to university this fall, I’ve pulled my RESP funds from the market this morning, to GICs.
———
Buy high, sell low.
Rinse and repeat.
That you panicked and sold says that you didn’t invest in a balanced and diversified manner to properly reflect your risk tolerance. Pity.
Looks like preferreds just went on sale big time.
Great post Tatiana!
I’m an old guy. Nationalistic in my investing. I buy Canadian banks. Never missed a dividend payment and the growth is also nice.
#84
Ms 13 your worst nightmare, those crews aren’t here for vacations.
Can’t even post the initiation process regardless of any tactical wording.
Useful posting today.
#89 Jeff Burke on 03.15.23 at 11:56 am
Many of us have employer RRSP with some kind of employer match… which is then managed by an insurance company, and invested in IC mutual funds.
Where is the downside to transferring from employer fund to personal RRSP, and investing in low-cost, but similarly functional XIU and SPY?
So simple and obvious there must be a rule or law to make it prohibitive?
================
No downside ,perfectly legal depending on the plan stipulations. Mine lets me take it all out as soon as it is contributed, other plans will restrict you while an employee. Chech with your friendly HR.
Realistically it is a hassle to keep transfering out montly so I do it 3 times a year .First to a money market fund then transfer the cash value “In-Kind” for simplicity of filling the forms. And they take forever , like 2 weeks.
I’ve never understood the “Canada is only 4% of global GDP” argument. It’s hard enough following what’s going on in your own country let alone everywhere else. Too much political/cultural/tax complication to invest mostly out of Canada. I buy almost exclusively Canadian listed companies, however many of them do business throughout North America or the world. I do have a small portion in a global ETF, but my weighting would be much closer to 80 Canada/20 world. Has worked for me.
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