So the stock market didn’t crash. Actually the Dow and S&P went up for most of the session. One trading day after the collapse of SVB a lot of people made bank on bank stocks, buying an irrational dip. But bond prices went nuts, yields crashed and there was suddenly a gasp in the Re/Max tower as they tried to digest all the good news.
The demise of Silicon Valley Bank was a big deal for its suddenness, size and for blowing up social media. In many ways, its Internet-addicted clientele brought about their own financial crisis with a one-day $42 billion bank run. There are many lessons to mull there.
But here’s the news.
First, as stated here on the weekend, no contagion. The big US banks are fine. Our guys are peachy. This is not a Lehman moment. No credit crisis is at hand. The Biden administration and fed regulators were deft at outing the fire.
But, second, this shows that eight interest rate increases can break stuff. Those calling for rounds more of hikes don’t seem to get that. There are real-world consequences. SVB was one of them. (The bank put oodles of deposits’ money in long bonds which tanked in value as rates went up. When forced to liquidate, they were spanked.)
Third, this bank collapse was scary enough to drive big bucks into bonds as investors flocked for the safe havens of government debt. All that money pushed prices far higher (so aren’t you glad you have a balanced portfolio with bonds in there?) and at the same time pushed yields lower. Dramatically lower. Like, honey-there’s-an-asteroid-coming lower.
In just a couple of trading days, for example, the 2-year Canada bond dropped more than 40 bps. We’ve only seen action worst than that following Nine Eleven, when Lehman Brothers went down, or a day after the never-repeated 1987 stock market 22% massacre.
Meanwhile the benchmark Government of Canada 5-year bond tanked by 9% today alone. Look at this wild ride:
Biggest bond dump in decades. Mortgages next?
Chart shows yield on Government of Canada 5-year debt.
.
So, fourth, what happened in California last Thursday and Friday has, in an instant, changed all the projections for the Bank of Canada. Yields are in tatters. The bond that determines the cost of five-year fixed mortgages in this country has given up a stunning 70 basis points in three trading days. Now Mr. Market has gone from cockily stating our CB will follow the Fed’s path higher to pricing in two rate cuts by July.
Did you catch that? Cuts. Two of them. Within 90 days. How the world spins.
Fifth, mortgage rates are going to drop. Just as the sap flows, loins rustle and the spring rutting season commences. The first of these is likely to materialize on Tuesday.
Says crusty mortgage broker Ron Butler: “Markets react by calling Powell out: he has to stop increasing the Fed Funds Rate. This means bond yields fall as the certainty that yields must stay high vanishes. Tiff Macklem. the BoC Governor. locks himself in the bathroom and does a hideous happy dance. Because his urgent desire to stop raising rates in Canada just got big support from 2 bank failures Stay tuned tomorrow for more mortgage rate news.”
Things to remember: America averted banking contagion by making SVB’s depositors whole. It was a stunning move. Unprecedented. Not very capitalistic, but effective. Like Biden’s pre-market speech Monday morning, the point was to calm nerves and rescue Wall Street.
In response, Mr. Market figures that central banks are now cooked. Fed rates can’t rise much more. Maybe not at all. In Canada, traders are signaling a pivot. None was expected for a full year – until inflation was back below 3%. Well, forget that. More evidence to always have a balanced and diversified portfolio.
Are you investing in one of those 5%+ GICs that have been around? Do it today. They may be off the table pronto. As for borrowing, expect cheaper money. If you got a mortgage pre-approval, those lower rates will be passed on.
For real estate, my oh my. This will be interesting. As you know, prices bottomed in late January, started to revive a little in February and in the last two weeks buyers have been filling open houses and bidding up the few good props that hit the market. Now, will all these headlines about US banking woes send them back to the safety of their rentals, or will five-year money with a 4-handle change everything after a 50% year/year drop in sales?
It’s getting hard to remember what normal is.
About the picture: “Here’s a photo of a sled dog,” writes David in Nanaimo, “sleeping which I took in Ilulissat, Greenland, last summer. There are more sled dogs in Ilulissat than people.”
180 comments ↓
“Are you investing in one of those 5%+ GICs that have been around? Do it today. They may be off the table pronto.”- Thor Turner.
///////////////////////////
Blog Father, are you telling me it’s o.k to sin for a fourth time…
M48BC
As stated by you Garth, SVD is just another yawm nothing to see here blip.
The Fed will not change course, at least in the short run. Another 1% increase (not all in one shot) from current levels seems appropriate before they sit tight. Rates dropping? I don’t think so.
When rates rise, it’s normal for some things that are fragile and mismanaged to break. Again, it’s normal. It’s the perfect cleansing. It’ll make the markets stronger and more resilient.
Did the Fed break or expose?
There is a new buzzword in tech: Enshittification
“First, they are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves. Then, they die.”
https://www.wired.com/story/tiktok-platforms-cory-doctorow/
Could Tech just be a setting a trend for other areas to experience this enshittification?
Is capitalism experiencing enshittification?
Is politics experiencing enshittification?
:-)
If they do cut rates this year then those of us that were confident that the minute markets get a bit squirrelly the Centrals will retreat would be right. The past few days haven’t changed inflation, at all, so to back off now is a clear indication the Central exist today to support RE and Financial markets. Which is fine for me, we have the means to make this work in a big way. That’s why the 100% cash guys are fools, they haven’t realized governments today will always rush in to save the markets.
“Not very capitalistic.” LOL
Nothing screams capitalism like socializing the losses.
CDIC is hiring!
Senior Officer, Crisis Communications
https://www.google.com/search?q=cdic+job+postings&ibp=htl;jobs&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwifoJvO4Nn9AhW-jIkEHc-tAYoQkd0GegQICRAB#fpstate=tldetail&htivrt=jobs&htiq=cdic+job+postings&htidocid=bvMWVMyW284AAAAAAAAAAA%3D%3D
Yeah, yeah – and next week, the story will be completely reversed. I think the only constant is to expect on-going volatility.
Beautiful picture – I thought it was a fox, but on second look can see the dog.
normal no longer lives here
For 2 or 3 reginal bank failures of no consequence, there has sure been some serious consequential collateral damage.
However,I don’t think Powel is going to change course. The hikes were intended to curb runaway inflation, and its main drivers.
That has not changed.
The failures were in the making long before the Fed hikes, but the higher rates are a convenient scapegoat.
To bad you have to even worry about the economy the stock market bond ect ect. To bad its all so intertwined. Its all so tiring.
Enjoy your field of land mines.
We are setup up where we do not care.
Its a world of policies by stupid govs that have created a pile of unintended consequence’s.
The central banks had a brick on the gas pedal for years called ZIRP. Live with it. Golds $2,600 CND :-)
Just like 2009 peeps lost their houses but policy makers were never held accountable.
So far RE is not a crash and firming up in Van. A mild correction.
No correction here so save your breath. Ya see my RE cant go off the board like stocks and bonds. Rents a record highs. YUM!
The time to buy is when there’s blood on the streets, even if it’s your own….. B. Rothschild
SVB should not have been bailed out. Their mgmt made bad investment decisions and blaming the depositors is ridiculous.
Nothing in the overall economy has changed and we still have high inflation with still normalizing interest rates so it would be very disappointing (and telling) if the CBs reversed course now.
Of course things will “break” that’s the whole point of raising interest rates in the first place.
Everything is coming unglued as expected, the world does not wait for payments. If you can’t pay on time , get out of the game.
most interesting point is what happens with bonds do they stay or bounce back once the noise is gone?….i think the fed still moves once for sure….
Biden was stuck, had no choice, think about the optics gave Ukraine billions and billions, no way he could let a bank deposits fail and some big tech companies not make payroll. Honestly, the 15 billion is peanuts to what has already been pledged to the war effort.
spring market all depends on what comes in higher numbers, more buyers or more inventory
I have some monies invested with CI Financial. The demise of SVB got me thinking who is running the ship over there at CI Financial. Their leadership page only says what they do. Who knows who they are. We have access to more stats on any sports player than the guy holding our fortunes. Go figure. It reminds me of bungy … we put the final moments of our lives in the hands of the minimum wager.
https://www.cifinancial.com/ci-assante/ca/en/about/leadership.html
The central bank plan to deal with inflation has been to raise interest rates and squeeze wages, raise unemployment, and stifle economic activity to induce a mild recession and apply downward pressure on prices. The rationale being, companies are putting prices up to the upper limit of affordability, so if you lower that affordability limit then they will not be able to do so any more.
Isn’t there a less ridiculous and roundabout way to address soaring costs that doesn’t necessitate impoverishing consumers?
Regulations? Price controls? Anti-price gouging legislation? All of those address rising costs more directly and produce the same systemic effects (weak firms will fail all the same if they can’t sell their products at a lower price to break even, or if their customers can’t afford to buy their products at the normal price), but crucially, don’t impoverish consumers.
But I see no reason for the government to abandon common sense economics because they’re afraid some uneducated hucksters will call them “communists” (which they already do anyway).
For those paying attention,
governments are colluding… Inflating their debts away.
It seems so obvious and it is intentional.
Well, that’s it. Who bought RE in January, was smart. Who bought 5 years ago was even smarter. Who bought 10 years ago with 20% down made a killing of 1000%.
Yes, there are going to be ups and downs. But it seems very clear now that RE is the best investment you can make.
This might be a good time to revive Keynes’ golden investment rule:
“The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
Don’t bet against the CBs. If they drop rates before the target of 3% is reached, then you might as well lever up and buy real estate. No reason not to, since it’ll never be cheaper than it is today, ever again.
“Yogism #62: When feeling capitally, do not become invested in emotions”.
“It’s getting hard to remember what normal is.”
———
Naw. This is normal. There’s always something bright and interesting and shiny to catch attention.
And as usual… most of it doesn’t matter.
Here’s something that does matter, though- a squirrel recipe for Alois:
Take five skinned and cleaned squirrels, season well and sear all sides in a hot pan with oil. Place a grate in the bottom of a pressure cooker, add water to just below the level of the grate, stack the squirrels above and pressure cook for 40 minutes. Let cool to touch and strip all exceptionally tender meat from the bones while warm. Save the stock for other uses. Mix meat with your best homemade bbq sauce and serve on bun with grilled cob corn, applesauce and coleslaw. Accompany with banjo music.
Oh man. Livin’ the good life.
Normal is out the window, the markets would not hold stillfor a moment today, but the good news is, many of us bought Canadian Bankstocks today for the same price we paid back in late 2020 and early 2021, whata deal to buy and hold plus average for others with great dividends.
Opportunities do not come often, but today was one of them,always keep a few tickers priced very low, you never know when you will get the luck of the draw.
Two areas that the investors were running toward for cover towardtoday was Gold and the mysterious Bitcoin, you got it right Bitcoin, it seems thatNorth Americans still have a big belief in the coin.
The Bitcoin fund is almosta 500 Billion dollar fund, for those that love and buy it, I suspect it wont go anywhere south in a hurry, today was proof, investors looked at it as a safe haven.
Quote of the day: a man who is a master of patience, is a master of most things in life that he requires
What is odd, and nobody has talked about, is that the recent rates are historical norms. When a 4.75 funds rate breaks a few banks, people, businesses, real estate etc, one would think that eventually we are going to have a real significant crisis worse than 08. Someday.
Too soon Garth. Too soon.
Celebrate the victories as they come which you did today.
What is happening is knee-jerk reactions in Mr. Market fear based, duck and cover and see what shakes out.
Once it’s over, the fear, back to where we were.
Economy still hot Garth. StatCan today (preliminary) 3 quarters of Wealth loss ended with 4th quarter 2022 up.
Did not think it possible but up, great news.
Hang on Big Guy, celebrate, but I don’t see rates going down, maybe today, week from now until the dust settles but after that, a return to the bad normal of rising rates.
Wait and see.
FWIW
Sorry, but the issue is banks not paying enough for deposits. Risk free Treasury at 5%, or 0.5% on your bank account? This is an industry-wide issue as the financial economy has to deal with money that is no longer free.
No more buybacks, and serious equity impairment as banks have to raise money.
Unless inflation drops significantly, or we have another true market meltdown, no rate cuts.
Powell wants to destroy a good chunk of private equity as he kills the money supply. He wants to save regular banks and their payment system, as well as the market for government debt.
Anyone who thinks we are going back to ZIRP is not paying attention. Remember, rates are STILL stimulative; we have not had real rates in 25 YEARS.
Y’all gonna find out what garbage is in your portfolios…
First, as stated here on the weekend, no contagion.- Garth
One day doesn’t cut it.
Too early to tell Garth. The market didn’t listen to Biden’s BS> But painted the ticker to save the day. You know how it works. Big boys pulled all stops to shore up support. They will be handsomely rewarded for stepping up to the plate.
Such crap you spew. – Garth
We were worried about Canadian banks but it looks like they’re going to weather this storm much better than their US counterparts, as they have shorter duration books and will see a lot more refinancing business if these lower yields hold.
Also potential acquisition opportunities in the US with a fire sale coming on their regional banks.
If SVB’s new receivers need liquidity, maybe ReMAX and Royal LePage should send them a bonus cheque as their “liquidation” may just save the 2023 spring rutting season in Canada. Look at those beautiful 4.xx handles for all those beavers smart enough to pick up a fixed and pursue the national pass time — real estate!
Middle of March and a 70bp cut? Its RAINING MANA from heaven for Audi dealers!
Maybe the Bank of Canada can throw a little sweetener cash in too as its giving Tiff the moment of pause he’s looking for…
RISK ON in financials…
FED is not going to cut….this blip will be forgotten by the next news cycle.
Does this mean we all should scoop in and buy Canadian bank stocks? They have been just hammered lately.
I should never have invested in Lithium :(
It’s long been theorized the Fed would be hawkish until they busted something, then pivot.
The question is , what are the implications of glass interest rate ceiling and the Fed’s unwavering and forever put on the American banking system?
An epic rally in all assets for starters. A bit further down the road, the normalization of inflation. 2% was nice but now we feel 3 or 4% is actually appropriate. A worthwhile trade-off for the security of the banking system, of course! What’s that? Bread is $12 a loaf and a townhouse costs $1.6M? Sounds like a good reason to take advantage of the great lending options at your big 4/big 6 bank of choice!
Quite telling that there was no Putinesque event to exasperate the banking situation. Might mean there are many closed door meetings taking place, and the Russians are trying to save face in Ukraine.
The century is young but Putin has won the worst mistake of the century award.
Wow, just WOW!
From no pivot for at the very least until late 2024 to maybe 2 by July. The world is reacting to Social Media and the fallout is turning the ‘banking system’ on its ear.
Won’t be long before you’ll need a private banker just to tell you where to put your savings on a weekly basis…..
Olympics 2026 – Milan, Cortina.
Scroll down, check out where Pordenone is (where I live) and eat your hearts out Canada.
https://milanocortina2026.olympics.com/en/places/
I got booked already before I awoke this AM. Friends, American couple, sending me a Google Map of driving times on WhatsApp from my place, like I don’t know where Cortina d’Ampezzo is.
Americani.
TIP:
Olympics dates: 6-22 February 2026
Venezia Carnevale: 7-17 February 2026
Viareggio Carnevale: should be the same dates as Venezia
Kill 2-3 birds with 1 stone Canada.
Oh and Milan too, fashionisti knock yourselves out (Quadrilatero della Moda = your Ground Zero, Google it).
Stop.The.War.
Stop. Posting. – Garth
Both the Fed and the BOC are caught between a rock and a hard place ~ So much for the soft landing.
Markets, interest rates et al are beginning to remind me of Alberta weather – wait 5 minutes & it will change! Also, that federal bail out of SVB account holders. Won’t that set a precedent for all other bank failures going forward? Because the ‘avoid contagion’ reasoning would presumably justify such a move, would it not? If I were an American bank client & my bank failed, I’d be very upset if my accounts weren’t ‘made good’ by the government too. Given American’s love of lawsuits, I’d probably sue the government if they didn’t make my account good now the precedent has been set.
So Garth are you calling for inflation to resume (not that it really stopped)?
Ole Yogi bear Rosie is out today in the Globe: Get ready for deflation, more pain in stocks, and a rally in long-term bonds.
I get the bond part, but not the stock of deflation part.
Certainly big money centre banks like JPM, BAC etc. will gain marketshare at the expense of the smaller regionals. Looks like US banking will in time resemble the Canadian oligopoly.
No brainer – easiest way to get more affordable housing than you ever need is to crush speculators with higher rates.
#24 chalkie
I mean the Cdn banks are as liquid, solid as they come. This American SVB fear is pummeling our Big 5:
1Y
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=1Y
YTD
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=YTD
You are correct, a good time to buy Cdn bank stocks if you like single stock picks.
—————–
Investors being irrational on the Cdn Banks if you were to ask me.
SVB exposure about $20 Billion in total which is peanuts, TD and BoM the most exposed. Read it and weep:
https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/canadian-banks-erase-value-silicon-valley-bank
Why TD and BoM nose dove the most today.
Market is delusional, all of the sudden inflation is gone and CB defeated.
LOL
There won’t be a pivot, even when things start to break; my money is that CBs will at one point pause and leave it there until real inflation is bellow their rate; and only then consider to pivot. We are talking 1+ years away from this event.
Yawn, nothing to see here.
Yawn. Shocker, too big to fail gets bailed again.
Do the big investors who make risky investments ever take a haircut? Or is it truly, privative the gains, socialize the losses?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/yellen-said-no-bailout-but-its-a-huge-bailout-of-the-banking-system
Something broke, but the Fed is still expected to go through with rate hikes
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/something-broke-but-the-fed-is-still-expected-to-go-through-with-rate-hikes.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar
Rate cut? Ain’t gonna happen.
The only lesson that matters, is that central banks always cave to an ever-weaking financial system. Time to buy shitcoins? I hope not.
Woohoo! Great news! SVB crash is good news! My realtor has been predicting rate cuts for months. How smart realtors really are. And Garth is right about the reversal in the real estate market. I got out-“bully-bidded” 4 times already this year. Thought my over asking offers were enough, not a chance. This market is going up, up.
(TiffIsALoser, a blog dog formerly known as HateTiff)
Bank failures. Nothing to see here. No contagion. This ship is unsinkable. Meanwhile it’s playing out as the doomers predicted. It is more of a slow moving wreck this time and that is helping people to remain comfortably in denial. Everything is fine. LOL.
Seems CDIC is looking for a senior crisis communications officer
Who the heck wants that job lol. Are they trying to get ahead of things to come?
https://www.cdic.ca/careers/opportunities/#careersIFrame
Those of you with significant private equity exposure
are gonna get hammered.. Their capital structure does not work without the cheap money. They are doing everything they can to hold on until money gets cheap again. The whole shadow banking world is getting shafted; No bailout for the sophisticated investor this time. The world of securitization will be a different place in a couple of years.
I feel bad for people who retired at 60 who think their portfolio is rock solid… delusion. Wait until the garbage starts to stink…
Why would the Fed cover deposits over $$250,000? The FDIC is only required to guarantee that amount. They are fortunate to have that much deposit insurance, whereas we only have $100,000.
Also, I can’t see the BOC cutting rates soon, especially 2 rate cuts by July. Their job is to tame inflation.
Garth – I get that bond yields plummeted today but why did preferred etfs like CPD, PFF and PFXF go down in value as well? Shouldn’t they have gone up?
How the hell do you tame inflation when creating out of thin air $billions in new money in Canadastan’s next budget? Primarily going to our health care racket, where the sky is the limit. Why don’t the citizen comrades of Canadastan at least try to lead healthier lifestyles before something breaks?
“Fat, stupid and drunk is no way to go through life, son.”
Dean Wormer from Animal House
A recent drive this weekend..
B.C. Lower Mainland has (2) concrete plants
…. one in East Richmond
…. and another in North Delta.
I’ve also toured both facilities so reasonably familiar with the production process.
For the first time ever ….in my personal experience …neither of their stacks was emitting any observable production byproducts.
……it was dead…..no observance of any signs of emissions.
Is this an indicator of the economy ?
If Tiff and Jerome lower rates now with inflation running at 6% then they’ve lost. FAIL!
After decades of exploiting immigrants the BC Govt never runs out of ideas to waste your tax dollars. Now that everyone is dumping overpriced BC & Canadian real estate to buy cheap American homes, farms, rentals etc BC is scrambling to make up budget shortfalls. Sucks to be a BC property owner with government spending so out of control. Dump Canada. Buy USA. Snowbird in the USA half the year – GET RID OF ALL YOUR OVERPRICED BC AND CANDIAN REAL ESTATE, HOMES, COTTAGES, FARMS ETC. LET THE SUCKERS PAY FOR THE GOVERNMENT OVERPENDING AND WASTE IN CANADA.
The Balloons were the distraction. Leading to this.
Fool me once…
I think both the Fed and the bank of Canada are in a horrible position. It would be bad if anyone cuts rates. Inflation would soar again. Jerome Powell said expect pain, the pain just started.
Just saying folks.
Time to be very conservative.
There’s a world of danger out there. Years of tom foolery to prevent as stated below “bad things from happening” is exactly what’s going on now.
As Ive said before debt levels globally are off the charts. In the USA every tax payer owes a 1/4 mil of the gov debt alone. Kanada about 1/2 that I do believe and that’s retarded. Justin said the debt don’t mater and interest rates where zip. My what a smart fellow. NOT.
Now their stuck between a rock and a hard place. Raising rates to combat inflation or collapsing the economy’s and crushing debt loads.
They have put us on super thin ice.
We planned for this so my family will benefit from a collapse. We have capital to buy more things that cash flow. Most are stretched out.
Given the fact that there are many Kanadians are finally figuring out their near taxed to death and the power that be are still coming for more and THEY ARE STILL BROKE.
Much tax $ pissed up against the wall.
The fact that you idiots out there keep taking it on the chin is pathetic.
I’ve recently called my MLA that I had ENOUGH!
I know EXACTLY how to fix it but wouldn’t bother as it would not be popular, and unfortunately Kanadians are passive fools with short memories and the Govs knows that. Your abused in many ways.
Prepare yourselves for a number of years of pain.
This is a big hole they dug and many individuals have also partook.
The everything bubble will contract.
Hard to get insurance when the house is on fire.
That’s how gov works…piss poor planning if at all only reactionary then finger pointing.
That’s why I’d never be in government. The few that have any brains or integrity get the boot like Judy.
Read and Head.
Quote from C&M
“There are three significant aspects with the Yield Curve. Inversion is always followed by
a recession and the more intense the inversion, the more severe the contraction.
Obviously the latest spike up accomplished Momentum excesses as well as a Sequential
Sell. The latter anticipated the reversal. On Friday, Ross sent out a “Sequential Sell” on
the S&P.
And then with alarming news, America’s second largest bank failure was announced and
indelibly recorded in the SVB chart. Which all have seen, but today it appears that central
bank “Lenders of Last Resort” around the world have saved the day.
While the theory is still attractive, it has never worked because it is not just one lending
agency that gets over-exposed to risk. Virtually, the whole Street gets hopelessly offside.
Especially when the Fed has been there to prevent bad things from happening.”
If they can’t warn/ predict of a pending calamity, they sure as hell can’t see the next domino or wouldn’t tell you anyway. You can take that to the bank.
The market has been wrong about the pivot several times. In a bear market, hope is that it is over, and it is mostly disappointed. Garth, you could be right, but I’d say that 10Y US will be back above 3.70% by Friday. Next week, higher than that and on its way to 4. Canadian rates follow. Their plan is a smart backstop designed to stop runs. Next hope stop on the bear train is the beginning of the unraveling of derivatives or pensions in North America. That one might do it. Until then, I’d say the real estate folk are drinking hard again next week.
#43, Dolce, why $20bn? I read SVB is $205bn
I guess that this Biden official didn’t get the message:
ESG, DEI, CRT, AGW, WHO, FBI, J6, AOC and all other manners of acronym Woke-ism died when SVB blew up.
Woke-ism is soooooo over.
DELETED (Tiresome, repetitive drivel)
So once again, the average person will pay the price for poor management at banks. Pausing rate hikes – or outright rate cuts – mean higher inflation on Main Street in an environment where so many are already falling behind and housing is already out of reach for most that don’t already own.
Here’s a wild thought. How about the central bankers do their job and get inflation under control? If some banks blow as a result, sucks to be their investors. Depositors should be protected.
Current interest are still very low on a historical basis. SVB blowing up is due to the bank holding too much duration in a rising rate environment – a mind-numbingly stupid mistake.
If the Fed cuts rates or pauses QT with inflation running at 6% yoy, then let’s stop pretending it’s job is to control inflation.
#55 “B.C. Lower Mainland has (2) concrete plants
…. one in East Richmond
…. and another in North Delta.
I’ve also toured both facilities so reasonably familiar with the production process.
For the first time ever ….in my personal experience …neither of their stacks was emitting any observable production byproducts.
……it was dead…..no observance of any signs of emissions.
Is this an indicator of the economy ?
—————————————————————-
The Ocean Concrete Plant on Granville Island is humming, The gravel barges come and go, Varies but typically the barge is empty in 24 hours. It has increased its turn around frequency. I presume the yuuuge Oakridge Development and the Broadway subway line get a lot of the mixed product.
The View from the DT side of False Creek (Ocean hired Brazilian twins to paint the silos a few yrs back):
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=90Rq2s76&id=C346B54D3CC712AAC17903A4913E58561250D042&thid=OIP.90Rq2s76RbJk4xG6KyalUAHaE8&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.f7446adacefa45b264e311ba2b26a550%3frik%3dQtBQElZYPpGkAw%26riu%3dhttp%253a%252f%252f604now.com%252fwp-content%252fuploads%252f2014%252f08%252fgranvilleisland_mural.png%26ehk%3dOZq%252fQ2ghX2z5uN1vQJPVAuOdcj7iyuqYF09gLNn9%252bXE%253d%26risl%3d%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=433&expw=649&q=concrete+plant+granville+island&simid=607987457717306792&FORM=IRPRST&ck=F91510CDB9704215684BD119DCA136B7&selectedIndex=5&qpvt=concrete+plant+granville+island&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0
For inquiring minds only: According to Professor Richard Werner (responsible for the concept of QE), author of Princes of the Yen.
https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/richard-werner-interview-covid-measures-and-the-central-controls-over-the-economy/
Flop Drops.
Started from the bottom, now we’re here.
So you need a detached house in Surrey, with a budget of less than a million, is that possible?
Yeah, apparently, and it looks a little something like this.
The details…
Original ask 1.29
Assessment 993k
Just sold for 950k
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2751904/12775-114B-AVENUE-Surrey-BC/
So you put 20% down, pay off two police forces, put up a few security cameras, and you too can feel safe in a place like this for 4,500 a month.
Or you can rent, let’s not go there…
M48BC
No flies on OSFI. Behold the Chicken Hawk version of the ‘Bum’s Rush’ ( AKA ‘ winding order’ ) –
“OTTAWA ─ March 12, 2023 ─ Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada-
Today, the Superintendent of Financial Institutions moved to protect creditors by taking temporary control of the assets of the Canadian branch of Silicon Valley Bank, as well as issuing notice that he intends to seek permanent control of its assets and requesting that the Attorney General of Canada apply for a Winding-Up Order.” +++
“Now Mr. Market has gone from cockily stating our CB will follow the Fed’s path higher to pricing in two rate cuts by July.” – GT +++
Anything is possible, but then sometimes Mr. Market gets ahead of himself and doesn’t stay in his lane. The Fed and BOC didn’t come this far in the fight to raise the white flag. Not just yet…
Speaking of taxes.
The gov is so full of $hit taking affordable housing.
That is one of the greatest piles of doo doo out there.
All levels of gov taxing the hell out of a newly built home.
$100,000s per home in permitting, fees, outrageous cost of putting in city services, taxes on the build closing costs and GST!!!!!
Dum dum Kanucks allow this crap.
PS it looks like this fall will bring more failures?? Buckle up.
They just threw another Band-Aid on. Ships made of band-aides now.
Look at all the snowbird homes you can buy in Las Vegas for under 50k!!
Why do you still want to own an overpriced house, townhouse or condo in Canada?
https://www.zillow.com/homes/las-vegas_rb/
@#55 Alois
‘A recent drive this weekend..’
===
it could be a sign of the economy slowing.
OR
A shortage of workers that refuse to work the weekends.
Inflation is no going anywhere. This is just like the 70’s. Trust me inflation is not going down to 3% anytime soon and by summer everything you still need, food, energy, other essentials will be at least 10% more expensive. Inflation, higher cost of living is going to get much more expensive, worse.
So, they are going to print again?
Instead of QE how about PONZ?
Old rules of thumb. Canadian construction workers often buy what they build. But they sell faster to get out of the cold and into sunshine sooner rather than later.
#33 Cheese on 03.13.23 at 5:28 pm
I should never have invested in Lithium :(
The electric car hype is dead.
Its all apart of the bubble that’s deflating.
Past Hope I wouldn’t buy one. Too cold.
The green push is crap. Its a false religion narated by your clueless governmet. Yes EVs do have a place nothing like they are pitching though.
The carbon Tax is a lie.
The US and CCP militarys absolutely dwarf what automobile CO2 emissions produce…Not to mention 1,000s of ocean going cargo ships burning bunker sea crude.
They don’t care. THEY DON’T CARE!
Justin lies constantly.
There are very few people in Canada and ALOT of trees.
Ask for a carbon tax rebate?
Can’t wait till that dip $hit is gone. Flying around in the private Jet eating caviar while record #s are hungry.
Sorry about your loses bud.
I just wonder (rhetorically) how is any of this going to tame inflation?
Another bank failure today. This time it’s Signature Bank and it’s the third biggest bank to fail in US history. Apparently it was well capitalized with conservative assets. But no matter how solid, no bank survives a run on the bank.
#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.23 at 7:18 pm
@#55 Alois
‘A recent drive this weekend..’
===
it could be a sign of the economy slowing.
OR
A shortage of workers that refuse to work the weekends.
=========================
Better half and I are staycationing…
I have an awesome” bird’s eye view” of the BC economy from my perch….and taking notes….
Will post results tomorrow…
https://twitter.com/JerichoReport/status/1635275911619837956
More then 30 banks placed under trading halts.
I read all these comments telling Garth hes wrong, written by those who get to do this anonymously. This is why I mostly try to stay away from the comments section. Actually Im back to just reading to find when Garth responds to a specific comment because I know Im going to laugh, the humor of it is good. Your advice has always been sound Garth, it is very much appreciated by our entire family and helped us gain perspective years ago. Without this, we would be in a very different situation now.
RE: #58 TurnerNation on 03.13.23 at 6:44 pm
The Balloons were the distraction. Leading to this.
Fool me once…
=======================================
I’ve lost count of the number of times that you’ve been fooled by conspiracies.
Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco
top ten loans outstanding
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/03/silicon-valley-bank-was-a-wall-street-ipo-pipeline-in-drag-as-a-federally-insured-bank-fhlb-of-san-francisco-was-quietly-bailing-it-out/
See the US national news feeds today?
Nearly two dozen banks trading suspended.
Seemed like a lot of customers were going to their independent (non SVB) banks and pulling money out.
Confidence lost. Big banks love it.
This is just the beginning.
#16 toronto1 on 03.13.23 at 4:51 pm
War effort? You are brain washed and Biden is brain dead.
If ya haven’t figured it out its a war USA/Nato against Putty not the Ukraine. The place is just the bombing ground and the people are getting slaughterd. Extremely stupid and was avoidable. My grand parent left the Ukraine WW2.
The USA Biden is kicking off a BS WW3 handed over 200 billion while the US is in shambles. Putty would have done nothing if the honored the Minsk Agreement. No different than the Cuban missel crisis really.
They forced Putty’s hand. If you have a crazy neighbor you don’t park missiles on your fence line. You leave them alone. That’s a simplification for you.
You know what 200B could do for the states?
If you believe anything yuo see on the news your already toast bro.
Yup there’s Biden over there while 100,000s of illegal’s and drugies crash the boarder and the train disaster the locals get lied to and near zero help $
Biden = idiot.
Anymore top secret docs in the garage Mr B?
Oh my, another bank bailout. This is just the beginning. More black swans on the way ! Fed pivot to save the market but impoverish the people with much higher inflation. Gold and bitcoin soaring. I guess many want a safe place to park their money. High inflation will be here for a long time. The printing machine is working overtime!
So in summary, nothing of consequence happened, except emotions. Humans.
Are you investing in one of those 5%+ GICs that have been around? Do it today.
———–
I put new $$ I was not expecting in a GIC at the end of last summer at around 4.5, as I felt it was a good move at that time for a 1 year holding plan with all the uncertainty in the market. Garth dissed it. Now he is recommending a similar action? For a short-term period 1–2 years I’d rather have 5% guaranteed at this stage as there are way too many variables to predict the market in the next while. I will take my 5% (which of course still loses against inflation).
So, one of the smaller US Banks falls and this gives all those who want to see rate rises stop…and hopefully retreat…an opportunity to immediately present this as a definite. Far from it.
So it’s finally true. No one can actually lose ever again. Ponies for everyone.
Inflation still running wild and system starting to crack … great!
Nothing is normal and there is no returning to upward trajectory …
the weather is becoming hazy, sticky and heavy … You know what comes next … a storm to clear the air.
Nobody saw 2 banks collapse coming… Nobody will see what comes next … until all this mess settles down
DELETED
“We’ll do whatever it takes and won’t stop to bring inflation back down to 2%” Unless some bank we say is no big deal collapses. Hmmmm something seems very off here. Can I still take out a second mortgage and buy Nortel stock?
Garth,
Autofill problem fixed now. 3 hours before still existed.
Here is the link to article why it dangerous —>
https://www.kaspersky.com/blog/browser-data-theft/27871/
One comment from Tyler Durden: SVB failed because they parked the majority of their depositors’ money ($119.9 billion) in US GOVERNMENT BONDS.
HOLY COW.
“Reverse onus bail”
?????
The Feds want to change bail rules so that accused criminals must prove that they deserve to be released on bail.
As opposed to the current system where Crown Prosecutors must prove why accused should not be released on bail.
A good start.
However.
The Liberals only want to implement this bail change for ….gun crimes…or crimes involving weapons….
So.
If you have a business and a person smashes your window and steals your property without a weapon….released on regular bail.
Ask this Nanaimo business man how that worked out when he confronted a homeless community about stolen property…..
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2023/03/13/nanaimo-business-owner-shot/
The other elephant in the room is bank exposure to derivatives.
Some analysts speculate it’s a quadrillion dollar bubble.
yikes!
8 dead skunks in the Lower Brainland likely died from the avian flu…
It is believed the skunks scavenged dead birds that had died from the avian flu….
Cross species infection……not good.
https://www.cp24.com/lifestyle/8-skunks-found-dead-in-metro-vancouver-had-avian-flu-government-1.6311607#:~:text=Reddit-,Eight%20skunks%20found%20dead%20last%20month%20in%20Vancouver%20and%20nearby,began%20in%20April%20last%20year.
#85 Ed Tunstal on 03.13.23 at 8:11 pm
NATO countries is supplying an ally, with military gear and training, based on a public request of help, as allowed under International Law.
NATO is not at war with Russia; at least not yet.
Russia is at war against Ukraine and itself (Wagner vs Ministry of Defence).
The first rule cult leaders tell you is that everyone is lying to you except me.
Hence, anyone selling you “special information that you don’t get on the MSM” is usually a cult leader.
Sleeping without the assistance of a pill in our unlevered home tonight, as usual.
Although it seems we rent our equal weight portfolio!
1st world problems abound, as we round the bases to 2nd world, with our focus on 3rd.
#85 Ed Tunstal on 03.13.23 at 8:11 pm
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
What the …?
#138 John Foster on 03.13.23 at 12:36 pm
#135 Sail Away
Probably not an apples/apples comparison as most accidents are on local streets and most auto-pilot is on highways. Not sure what the real numbers are, but it’s not as reported.
—
Exactly correct and exactly what careful academic research has revealed. Also, and most importantly not included in any analysis, autopilot/FSD often hands control back over to the driver at the very last second so is rarely “on” in an accident. If Tesla were truly confident that they didn’t develop killing software, they would open source their data including data a minute prior to any crash.
They don’t because the results would be damning and Tesla is a fraud. A semi-productive one like Enron, but fraudulent all the same.
In the end. Gartho is correcto. Diversify, have some dry powder. Too much debt in RE bad or margin bad.
Make sure you have disposable $ every month.
6 month of op cost is essential in event of a job loss ect.
Take a loooooooong view on everything, Like the CCP I despise them but they got that right.
Bumpy ride will continue. Enjoy!
#82 kommykim on 03.13.23 at 7:51 pm
RE: #58 TurnerNation on 03.13.23 at 6:44 pm
The Balloons were the distraction. Leading to this.
Fool me once…
=======================================
I’ve lost count of the number of times that you’ve been fooled by conspiracies.
—
LOL, well done.
The US banking problem are a little dicier than just 2 or 3 banks in trouble. A lot of stuff going on that is under the table.
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/03/silicon-valley-bank-was-a-wall-street-ipo-pipeline-in-drag-as-a-federally-insured-bank-fhlb-of-san-francisco-was-quietly-bailing-it-out/
#109 Tim on 03.13.23 at 12:03 am
Yeah inflation isn’t over here or it’s just the same as usual with Canada…
Franks 2×740.0 ml was $9.99 a few months back at the local Superstore here in BC. It’s now $12.99.
______________________________
Get a bottle of the srirachi sauce with the rooster logo, add to a full barrel of water, voila a barrel of Franks!
I feel truly blessed….
….in my golden years
….. that I have not heard of 99% of the Oscar nominees and winners.
Life is good….
imagine being enough of an idiot to not question the veracity of internal, corporate research.
I spent a year working for the FDIC in the early 1990s before pivoting into health care. I even managed to help shutter a bank while I was there.
Expect more banks than just SVB and Signature to get caught with their pants down over duration mismatch in a rising interest rate environment- these two are just the tip of the iceberg and drew the earliest attention due to their higher risk clientele (tech and crypto). Other more traditional banks will also have similar balance sheet problems. Proceed with caution when it comes to American banks.
#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.23 at 7:18 pm
@#55 Alois
‘A recent drive this weekend..’
===
it could be a sign of the economy slowing.
OR
A shortage of workers that refuse to work the weekends.
—————————-
Or Adolf confusing cement towers with the Taj Mahal.
What the best case. That the Fed will take care of everything and we go back to NORMLAL. Yes, what our Rulers want for us. Unbridled normalcy.
I’m talking 2019 levels of normalness.
I am 100% sure that no banking crisis ever will be foisted upon us overnight that would involve nationalization and/or a new digital currency. No crisis this large ever will be allowed to forment. And nobody would gain from such antics.
GUYS, I welcome you to step back, sit down and get ready for some Grade-A normal stuff in this world. It’s coming our way. Salut.
#95 Bill Grable on 03.13.23 at 9:13 pm
One comment from Tyler Durden: SVB failed because they parked the majority of their depositors’ money ($119.9 billion) in US GOVERNMENT BONDS.
HOLY COW.
—
Ironically, the 10-sigma crash in yields has probably been a boon to the HTM books of other banks. Too late for SVB, but definitely stabilizing.
This will all be forgotten by next week and bond yields will recover unless many more banks fail. This has no bearing on fighting inflation. The overleveraged are high on hopium connecting the dots where there is no connection. SVB failed because of bad risk management and was lead by an ego maniac where you tell the boss what he wants to hear and not what he needs to know. The world will continue to adjust to higher interest rates and lower liquidity. Looking ahead I see many condo builders facing insolvency. I wonder if the banks are facing substantial loan loss provisions from the building sector.
#95 Bill Grable on 03.13.23 at 9:13 pm
HOLY COW how could the highly trained banksters been so stupid?
How could the analysts who followed SVB recommend BUY?
Were they plumbers who lied on their resumes?
#102 Faron on 03.13.23 at 9:50 pm
They don’t because the results would be damning and Tesla is a fraud. A semi-productive one like Enron, but fraudulent all the same.
—————
Geez, give a guy a hammer and he thinks everything is climate science
More than 60 people have dies in Tesla fires. Tesla has sold about 8x as many electric cars as Nissan. So, 60/8 is 7ish? 8ish?
Any guesses for the LEAF?
0
DELETED
WHY IS THIS BLOG SHOWING NO RESPECT TO NICKELBACK TONIGHT!!???
Too Low For Too Long
That is what caused this. Now who caused that?
eft/27871/
#95 Bill Grable on 03.13.23 at 9:13 pm
One comment from Tyler Durden: SVB failed because they parked the majority of their depositors’ money ($119.9 billion) in US GOVERNMENT BONDS.
HOLY COW.
*********
Marc Cohodes has been tweeted about SVB for the past while…now I know what he meant.
#115 Sail Away on 03.13.23 at 10:44 pm
#102 Faron on 03.13.23 at 9:50 pm
Geez, give a guy a hammer and he thinks everything is climate science
—
What does your wife think when you write this kind of shit?
I believe there will be a lot more coincidences coming. Nothing is based on logic or reason. It should be interesting.
30 banks halted trading….hmmmmmm.
No, nothing to see here folks.
#121 Faron on 03.13.23 at 11:37 pm
#115 Sail Away on 03.13.23 at 10:44 pm
Geez, give a guy a hammer and he thinks everything is climate science
—————
What does your wife think when you write this kind of shit?
—————
My wife? She asks me why that weird blinky guy is always watching her.
I say ‘Stay alert, stay alive, baby’
#62 Yorkville Renter
Cdn bank exposure. Click on the link for the #.
———————
#104 Faron
I know right?
I burst out laughing when I read the response.
Blasé a good thing there kommykim.
Tin foil hat says collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is the greatest thing to happen and at the right time in so many ways……rigged lol
So eight interest rate increases breaks stuff – good. It was central bank’s unwillingness to break stuff that gave us the free money era that needs to be unwound.
Capitalism needs recessions along with bankruptcies to counteract the excesses that capitalism is subject to. The unwillingness to accept a little pain is going to make things worse, most likely through persistent high inflation and low growth.
Yeah… nah, thanks. I’ll just stick to Bitcoin.
Everyday its like Vince saying WAIT THERE’S MORE lol
#66 WTF on 03.13.23 at 7:05 pm
#55 “B.C. Lower Mainland has (2) concrete plants
…. one in East Richmond
…. and another in North Delta.
I’ve also toured both facilities so reasonably familiar with the production process.
For the first time ever ….in my personal experience …neither of their stacks was emitting any observable production byproducts.
……it was dead…..no observance of any signs of emissions.
Is this an indicator of the economy ?
—————————————————————-
The Ocean Concrete Plant on Granville Island is humming,
///////
Delta and richmond are cement plants, where shiploads of nat gas are used to cook limestone and clay into cement(powder). These are large complex industrial operations but require few personnel. They were both customers of.mine in a past life.
Granville island is a far more simple and common ‘ready mix plant’ . They simply mix up batches of cement, aggregate and water and put it in trucks. Which then gets placed and dries to ‘concrete’
——–
“Whoever said one person can’t change the world never ate an undercooked bat.”
The economy is strong! No contagion!
Yet the economy now abruptly needs rates hikes and it changed all the projections for the Bank of Canada.
Downward spiral around the world
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/asian-stocks-plummet-as-u-s-bank-rout-spills-over/ar-AA18B00q?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=69273be6b234475186ca7e228ba882cf&ei=17
Well looks like SVB gets a sort of bailout for deposits but not equity. Sort of they have to. After all the great oral communication from Powell and Yellen was that “inflation is transitory”. I called bull$hit right away because I realized the word “transitory” was undefined, sort of like “our democracy”. It sounds nice it nobody knows what it means. The definition is not part of the agreed lexicon.
Anyway, hedging is a “dammed if you do and dammed if you don’t” kind of thing when Powell and Yellen are outright lying to you, and even worse if they don’t know what they are doing.
And trust me, the “risk managers” have to run in herds just like anyone else in finance. If they were spending the money to hedge (it costs a lot) a 4000% interest rate change when Powell himself was imitating Alfred P Newman they would have been crucified.
So once again we see the government always lies about everything and you believe them at your own peril. And we don’t have to assume malice. They are just stupid. But it would still be a good idea to get out of their way. Stupid drivers may actually be more dangerous than evil drivers.
———————————————
So, on another stupid topic, no, there will never be a battery “gigafactory” in Ontario, involving VW or anyone else. Like the Transmountain expansion, it’ll easily be 3 times over budget before a single unit is produced. I know, I know, you are thinking even an 8-year-old couldn’t be that incompetent, and you’d be right. An 8-year-old couldn’t. But the government can. By definition. Because there is no consequence model. They can and probably will start burning witches again because someone got spooked by a black cat, and nobody could stop them. If you try, the Laurentians turn on you. Remember, it’s their government right or wrong.
So, as always, buy all the things. But stop buying the government bull$hit. And that’s all they are selling.
Pick your poison: Great depression part deux or socializing bank losses.
We can handle this stealth QE pivot whatever you want to call it cause inflation is under control right?
No need to get hysterical folks….this is not an uncontrolled crash, it is a controlled crash and will take place in slow motion….in 10 years, this period will be called the lost decade. Think 1990s Japan. …
https://tnc.news/2023/03/13/bank-england-carney-climate/
“Change” is coming on more fronts than just rates. The globalist climate rip off tax grab is being dismantled with it’s head protagonist ( I’ll do anything for the Liberal Party) getting the unceremonious boot from the table of world affairs. Without his guru lending credibility expect Trudeau to follow Bidens “new” position on oil .
Less mortgages, credit cards, car loans (remember CIBC post), equity raising, leveraged buyouts, wealth advisors (buy a GIC). We’re entering a world with higher rates and QE to QT. Therefore less banks and bankers are required, more will disappear and it won’t matter in the least. Inflation (led by food) will continue.
The bank ‘crisis’ will be used to stop rate increases and introduce rate cuts.
The financial system is so stable, that it can’t handle 4.5 % interest rates with CPI higher and real inflation at least double that.
As expected central bankers failed miserably in their core mandate to fight inflation, instead they choose to fuel it in order to maintain the current debt based system.
The impact on inflation would be horrific.
As I stated many times: many years of low rates, high inflation and reduced consumption aka severe prolonged inflationary depression.
Combined with invented problems in order to distract the attention, while people’s pockets are being emptied.
They aren’t going to cut rates. Not going to happen. Full stop. Jeez.
If the FED reverses course now, it will have lost total credibility in fighting inflation. Just like last time, a temporary fight with a loss leads to higher inflation next time round for the next guy to tackle until we get another Volcker.
If the FED backs out now, greater trouble lurks down the road. Powell needs balls of steel at this point.
Soft is relative same for deep.
However short sightedness is always prevalent.
Canada Pension buys money loser software developer, Qualtrix, in Provo Utah for 12.5 billion. The company has lost billions, now CPP will lose billions more. Are they already losing billions on a bad bet? We’ll have to wait and see how good at investing Justin Trudeau is.
Norway and Swedish pension funds have also lost over $200 billion in truly stupid investments, why , how can these leftists play in an arena they don’t belong.
Even super leftist Elizabeth Warren is treating about how Bidens rate policy has caused the collapse of the banks. Will this be the catalyst that wakes people of the western world to stop voting for economic extremists.
Snippets: ‘Alberta is calling part deux’ & Meanwhile, back at the tater ranch…’ ——-
“The Alberta government has started a second campaign aimed at attracting skilled workers from Ontario and Atlantic Canada.
The initial campaign targeted Canadians living in Toronto and Vancouver. This time it focuses on those in St. John’s, N.L., Charlottetown, Moncton, N.B., and Saint John, N.B., Halifax, as well as parts of Ontario, including London, Hamilton, Windsor and Sudbury.
“Nearly 33,000 Canadians heeded our call and moved to Alberta in quarter three of last year alone.” +++
“French fry giant Mccain Foods Ltd. has announced it will spend $600 million to double the size of its potato processing facility in southern Alberta, making the largest investment in its history in order to double output at its Coaldale facility, just east of the city of Lethbridge.
The project includes plans for wind turbines and solar panels to provide 100 per cent renewable electricity to the facility, as well as the use of renewable biogas generated at the site’s wastewater treatment facility to offset natural gas demand.”.
@#109 Alois
“….. that I have not heard of 99% of the Oscar nominees and winners.”
++++
Even better.
I had no idea it was Oscar Night.
@#114 Quinty’s Quants
“How could the analysts who followed SVB recommend BUY?
Were they plumbers who lied on their resumes?”
++++
Nah, the plummers I know don’t need a university degree to recognize crap.
Even ruthless communists have to deal with the looming “silver tsunami”…..
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-raise-retirement-age-deal-with-aging-population-media-2023-03-14/
They better hurry if they’re going to invade Taiwan.
The only thing to fear is fear itself? Is that the way of it Garth?
Watched a clumsy attempt by the MSM to breathe life back into the Trump-Stormy Daniels affair on CTV News last night. I wondered why it was back in the news as nobody cares about news from decades past.
Found out why this morning: After months of stonewalling the US Treasury Department has finally agreed to release information about 150 banking SARs (Suspicious Activity Reports) regarding the Biden family. SARs often indicate wire fraud, money laundering or bribery. Apparently some of the Biden inner circle have flipped and are willing to talk about what Hunter et. al have been up to regarding millions of dollars from Ukraine, China, Serbia, questionable art sales, etc.
Oops.
And that’s why you can expect to see more regurgitated stories on Trump’s old and minor scuffles soon. The MSM will continue running interference for the Bidens and try the Old Shell Game to keep the focus on Trump.
I’m fairly certain that when Hunter Biden is led away in handcuffs to Rikers Prison, MSNBC/CNN will say that Hunter was spotted in the Big Apple sporting a chic new pair of Tiffany-inspired white gold bracelets, accompanied by his Posse on his way to a private Island for a much needed vacation. And CTV will meekly and dutifully spread the narrative.
Dogs Not Barking
All of Canada’s homes, townhomes and condos are extremely overpriced whether new or not. Check USA prices in prime locations and compare.
Easy 60% gain this morning on PACW today, how did everyone else do, this one was easy.
#142 Jaguar
The project includes plans for wind turbines and solar panels to provide 100 per cent renewable electricity to the facility, as well as the use of renewable biogas generated at the site’s wastewater treatment facility to offset natural gas demand.”.
————————-
Good job Alberta!
Proofs that “where there is a will, there is a way”.
Re: #119 Wait There on 03.13.23 at 11:17 pm
America going off the gold standard was the reason for these ultra low rates that lasted far too long.
Re: #138 Summertime on 03.14.23 at 4:35 am
The banks are supposed to make higher profits when interest rates rise.
#121 Faron on 03.13.23 at 11:37 pm
#115 Sail Away on 03.13.23 at 10:44 pm
#102 Faron on 03.13.23 at 9:50 pm
Geez, give a guy a hammer and he thinks everything is climate science
—
What does your wife think when you write this kind of shit?
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Perhaps he is a clever sociopath who keeps his dark side hidden from his much better half?
I have a theory.
Faron and Sail Away are actually the SAME person!
Like the psycho in Fight Club. One and the same.
Shhhhhhh….don’t tell anyone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNEUHBSBtHc&t=3s
Cash flowing out of small banks and into the too big to fail institution’s.
Big banks, aka too big to fail are absorbing the competition, consolidating and getting prepared to usher in digital central currency.
Lots of uncertainty in tech.
Plus another 5k job postings now closed.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/meta-layoffs-10000-more-workers-to-be-cut-in-restructuring.html
From the WSJ comment section this am (paywall article):
“They won’t this makes 20K people that Zuckerburg has laid off now. It’s not that easy finding work with a lot of other tech and biotech places. Also HB1 visa people who HAVE 60 days to find new jobs or they have to leave the US competing for a few jobs. I’ve been looking since November and have friends who were laid-off back then still out of work.”
Thinking about quitting your job? You’re not alone.
Half of Canadian workers plan to look for a new job within the first six months of 2023, according to a poll by business consulting firm Robert Half.
Those most likely to make a career move include generation Z and millennial Canadians, tech workers, employees who have been with a company for two to four years and working parents, the survey of more than 1,100 professionals in Canada found.
A higher salary, better benefits and perks, more advancement opportunities and greater flexibility to choose when and where one works were among the top reasons that respondents said they would be looking for a new job.
https://www.castanet.net/news/Business/415965/Half-of-Canadians-plan-to-quit-job-but-best-to-have-a-plan-say-experts#415965
PISCES FEBRUARY 20–MARCH 20
A certain amount of tumult is in the air this month, but you’ll be clearing the way for an interesting new chapter. Confusion about plans and your own feelings is inevitable as Neptune, your otherworldly ruler, makes many aspects. Practical schemes that present themselves will turn out to be both promising and doable as March winds down. Lighten up and enjoy.
Sale’s over. Seems like it was just a pop up shop.
Forgot about inflation did we?
And this is how hyperinflation begins. When CB’s chicken out and stop interest rate increases.
#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.23 at 8:27 am
@#109 Alois
“….. that I have not heard of 99% of the Oscar nominees and winners.”
++++
Even better.
I had no idea it was Oscar Night.
==============================
Well…my spouse is into Oscars
I see the Oscars doubled down on political correctness…
I also saw on news that the first person of Chinese descent who played ONE period in NHL 70 years ago has parties wanting him put in Hall of Fame.
Carry on…
#142 the Jaguar on 03.14.23 at 8:24 am
“French fry giant Mccain Foods Ltd. has announced it will spend $600 million to double the size of its potato processing facility in southern Alberta, making the largest investment in its history in order to double output at its Coaldale facility, just east of the city of Lethbridge.
The project includes plans for wind turbines and solar panels to provide 100 per cent renewable electricity to the facility, as well as the use of renewable biogas generated at the site’s wastewater treatment facility to offset natural gas demand.”.
=============================
TRANSLATION:
Coaldale ?
Huge public subsidies likely involved.
McCain
https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/mccain-foods
====
A response from Max Koeune, President and CEO of McCain Foods, on the Canadian government’s announcement today of the $50 million Surplus Food Purchase Program
https://www.mccain.com/information-centre/news/mccain-foods-president-ceo-response-to-canadian-government-s-surplus-food-purchase-program/
“McCain Foods was pleased to hear today’s announcement from the Canadian government, offering the much needed Surplus Food Purchase Program to Canada’s farmers at this difficult time. Over the recent weeks McCain, alongside potato farmers across the country, has been asking the government to participate in finding a solution for the large surplus of potatoes caused by the closure of restaurants due to coronavirus. We applaud the government for listening and for taking action.
“We are keen to see the details of the program, including timings. This support needs to be in place quickly, as potatoes in store are at risk of spoiling as the weather warms.
“Finally, we are encouraged by the Prime Minister’s appreciation of Canadian farmers and food producers, and the commitment to more funding if and when required.”
#152 Observer on 03.14.23 at 10:27 am
Perhaps he is a clever sociopath who keeps his dark side hidden from his much better half?
———
Observer, keen and wise,
Earned a degree that now implies
An understanding of the human mind,
Thanks to the interwebz, so refined.
From the same place as Wile E, Ustabe, and me,
A learning journey that set Observer free.
Now armed with knowledge, sharp and clear,
Ready to help others conquer fear.
Congratulations, Observer, on your new degree,
May it take you places you never thought you’d be.
With insight, empathy, and a heart so kind,
May you help others find peace of mind.
#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.14.23 at 8:27 am
Hey Gramps, do I have it right?
You are saying that the good ones stay in the trade, and the bad ones go work for the regulators or get a realtor license.?
Isn’t it funny all three bank closures were DISCLOSED after the markets closed on a FRIDAY NIGHT?
That is to prevent bank runs and market collapse.
Talk about manipulation!
#151 Tony on 03.14.23 at 10:13 am
Re: #138 Summertime on 03.14.23 at 4:35 am
The banks are supposed to make higher profits when interest rates rise.
Yes, except if they loaded on low rates bonds as ‘investments’ and need to sell those in case of liquidity crisis when rates are high (i.e. bonds with lower rates have decreased in value)
Some CBs like the Swiss central bank lost much more money:
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) booked a CHF132 billion ($143 billion) loss in 2022 and suspended profit-sharing transfers to the Confederation and cantons
but I guess they can just print their lost money over,
it is not that easy for commercial banks but I agree that no important bank will fail.
There will be no banking crisis whatsoever.
But there will be huge inflation crisis for sure.
DELETED
Fed needs to pivot – cut 50bp immediately.
142 Jag
149 Ponz
“The project includes plans for wind turbines and solar panels to provide 100 per cent renewable electricity to the facility, as well as the use of renewable biogas generated at the site’s wastewater treatment facility to offset natural gas demand.”
——————————————————-
I read this as 100% of wind and solar is renewable, but not that all the electricity that the plant requires is drawn from these sources, and that natural gas will still
be used, but augmented by the onsite wastewater
source.
A good step forward regardless.
Garth here is something for you and you followers to have a peek at.
https://endoftheamericandream.com/the-federal-reserve-just-made-an-emergency-decision-which-will-fundamentally-change-banking-in-america-forever/
Here is the verification to the link I included in my last comment.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm
Fighting inflation it would seem is no longer a priority.
#124 Sail Away on 03.14.23 at 12:06 am
#121 Faron on 03.13.23 at 11:37 pm
#115 Sail Away on 03.13.23 at 10:44 pm
Hmmm. 75% of your day’s comments are about me. exceeds your own threshold for obsession. Pointing out an obscure physical feature of mine that was mentioned a year and a half ago (form of tourettes, your comment is a bit like making fun of someone’s stutter). Continuously brings up a butt-hurt traction aide issue. Forgot he told us all exactly and directly who his family members are. I would say the glove fits you pretty well: obsessive sociopath.
But, seriously, how do you reconcile calling climate change science a hoax when that’s a part if your wife’s milieu and, unless you have your head up Tucker Carlson or Exxon’s arse, is most certainly not a hoax.
Garth, yes things broke on the way down with almost zero rates for too long and will break on the way up that is a fact.
The bill always comes due and now that rates are rising SVB made bad business decisions to to tie up so much money in longer term investments to goose as much margin as possible that is irresponsible money management. 2) A social media driven run on the bank, this is what happens when fear strikes and people just follow the heard, SVB was working on tapping liquidity but fear stuck and it was too late.
The BOC is normalizing rates back to historical norms what we had the last few years was not normal and should never have been unless there is an emergency.
Inflation is still high and affordability is still a concern so I hope in the coming days the regulators stay the course and do what needs to be done.
#152 Observer on 03.14.23 at 10:27 am
#121 Faron on 03.13.23 at 11:37 pm
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Perhaps he is a clever sociopath who keeps his dark side hidden from his much better half?
—
Or a hermit crab from god-knows-where who has inhabited a personality just as Old Boot has inhabited several.
in the usa raising rates on savings acct to retain customers ?
electronic /AI systems 24 /7 hard to stop?
SVB collapse was driven by “the first Twitter fueled bank run,” House Financial Services chair says
DOJ and SEC are conducting separate investigations into the SVB collapse, Wall Street Journal reports
#130 Granville island is a far more simple and common ‘ready mix plant’ . They simply mix up batches of cement, aggregate and water and put it in trucks. Which then gets placed and dries to ‘concrete’
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Sigh. Alois mentioned the cement plants were idle.
I provided an example where it was being used at a accelerated rate. To make concrete. The new gravel barge came last night, Half empty at 10 am today. Do I get an elementary school primer about gravel now?
#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.23 at 9:25 pm
yikes!
8 dead skunks in the Lower Brainland likely died from the avian flu…
It is believed the skunks scavenged dead birds that had died from the avian flu….
///////////////
Skunks are all dead. I guess that just leaves you
#168 Calgary on 03.14.23 at 12:52 pm
Fed needs to pivot – cut 50bp immediately.
——————————
Decades of cutting got us in to a massive mess.
When capital is cheap its handled poorly by peeps that don’t know better. Including your government.
Re: #178 Ed Tunstal on 03.14.23 at 2:08 pm
The inflation rate has been redefined so interest rates are still or are more so deeply negative. The social security system will collapse by 2030 or earlier if they bring down interest rates.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US2Y/
I wouldn’t get too excited just yet. The 2 year is trading at Feb yields. It ran up with the markets and ran down with the markets, big deal.
10 year, same thing:
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
Corp bonds, ETF’s you know it far better than I do, I’m distracted and so I should be. When yield’s fall, price pops and markets do their dance. What I’m saying is, we can’t have it both ways and I don’t think anyone knows it better than the Fed.
In the history of U.S. markets, the Fed to my knowledge has never ever not raised rates higher than inflation to break consumer/investor habits. The Fed has rarely avoided a recession by raising rates to tame high inflation. The last time it happened was 1962, when GDP was over 9% before they started and GDP came down to .5%. The Fed didn’t start out with this kind of grace.
We can talk about SVB being a big deal, but it was the 16th largest bank, not #6, in a niche’ marketplace that isn’t broadly systemic and the bank made some dumb mistakes. Trying to make a point here, small banks will fail. That much is certain. If a mid tier fails that has broad credit loaned, that is a big deal but SVB doesn’t fit that paradigm.
When we test the system like this, the weakest links break. That is to be expected. If Powell pauses here, I think it’s a mistake. The markets have been fighting the Fed the entire time and today’s commentary has the same vibe. We need to understand something critical, the Fed isn’t driving high inflation at this point, high inflation is driving the Fed. This will not change until the Fed gets inflation under control and the Fed rate is their big tool. I’m just saying, don’t be surprised if the Fed raises rates 25 basis points later this month and the markets react accordingly.
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