Lately the savages in the steerage section ripped this blog a new one for presenting statistical evidence of a real estate awakening in the Big Cities. Impossibe, they cried! Why hast thou betrayed us?
Then the Fed got all hawkish and now Mr. Market thinks the US could raise rates again by a fat fifty beeps on March 22nd.
Cue the RE bears. Like crusty mortgage dude Ron Butler. Said he: “This is new. It opens up the possibility of as much as a 1.25% increase in the US before a pause. 1% would be too much on the Canadian Dollar and the BoC would have to raise. The Pivot on Prime Rate is SO DEAD. No reduction till 2024 earliest. And Fixed Rates go UP. No good news at all.”
The next event was Wednesday morning when the Governor of the Bank of Canada shockingly ignored the overwhelming call on this site for a rate hike – given the above.
Nope. He paused. He ducked. He stalled. But did he choke? Tiff decided to wait and see what the fallout from all those past hikes will be. We are on hold – at least until mid-April. And after reading his statement, it looks like he’s willing to sit tight until he’s absolutely forced to take action.
So what are we to make of this?
The house humpers (other than Big Ron) seem happy with Tiff. “Variable rate holders and those with a balance on a home equity line of credit (HELOC) will breathe a sigh of relief, as it is the first time their rate has not increased in a year,” said the president of CanWise Mortgage. Others chimed in adding this is great for VRM borrowers who have not yet hit their trigger rate (and would have if the BoC jacked its benchmark this week).
Meanwhile, confusion reigns. Listings are creeping up. Sales are still at half of year-ago levels. But whether the burn-it-all-down radicals like it or not, buyers are emerging. At least in urbanity.
Toronto realtor data freak Scott Ingram tells us weekly condo sales just hit the highest level since last July, but are still far below 2022 totals. Listings have powered up at the same time. As for houses, sales have inched past 100 a day – up 7.3% in a week – the most since last November.
Some people are obviously gambling a 25-30% price reduction is good enough. Maybe they’re wealthy and need no financing. They could be porting a cheapo mortgage from the Olden Days. They may have sold in recent weeks or months and are deploying windfall equity. Maybe they’re just sunny, optimistic souls who think the glass is half full, that the storm is over and the central bank is a good egg.
Many others obviously disagree. Some violently. They want half off, or more.
Well, we may not have hit bottom. This could be a mere swinging of a smelly, deceased feline. There may be another ten or even fifteen per cent to shed, especially in Bunnypatch or some places that Covid gifted (Halifax and London – talkin’ to you). But a detached pile in the LM or the GTA for seven large is not happening. Furthermore, as we’ve been trying to stress, there’ll be no meaningful, widespread real estate crash without an economic decline. Unemployment will go up. Wages will go down. Business investment will shrink. The recession would need to be long and deep. And, yes, the Bank of Canada would have to grow a bigger set and add another point or so to its benchmark.
Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house? Ironically, without a job or during a nasty recession with tighter credit controls, that might not be so easy. Real estate won’t just crumble without taking a big bite out of GDP and consumer confidence on the way down.
Anyway, here we are. Some folks are moving in because they smell an irresistible, soon-to-be-gone bargain. Others are holding out, hoping for a disaster. A year from now we’ll know who were the fools. Then, in true blog spirit, we shall mock them.
About the picture: “Attached photo is our four legged rescue – SkipTheWonderDog – as he enjoys a rare snowfall at our Sedona AZ Winter residence. MSU as a thank you for your timely advice to purchase vacation property following the USA real estate meltdown which we did in 2011. A terrific investment that we could enjoy as our personal Winter getaway while it appreciated four fold in the interim. Perhaps you might consider a future article of the tax implications – USA and Canada – regarding dispositions of foreign owned property. Best to you and your staff. Cheers Kris and Colleen.”
.
Do you have a beast to share with the pack? Send me a picture and some words at “[email protected]”. – Garth
180 comments ↓
Steerage section:
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167 Ronaldo on 03.09.23 at 10:14 am
#3 Chris on 03.08.23 at 11:00 am
Sad to think that $1.7MM is top few %, if not top 1%.
I’m 51, wife is late 40s and our net worth is about $3MM. I don’t feel like a Top few % person. I feel we are in good shape financially, however I don’t feel there is much wiggle room for unexpected expenses.
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51 with 3 million and no wiggle room. Whoa!
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Haha.
I know.
Some have bigger wiggles than others.
What time zone is this weblog in? :-)
Attention Tax Slaves. 20% interest is not high enough. It must be higher. NO System was created to your advantage. None of them.
“”The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition that with the Bank of Canada taking a break on rate hikes, a lot of consumers might think they have seen the worst of rising borrowing costs. … The interest rate for most RBC credit cards is increasing to 20.99 per cent from 19.99 per cent. Other banks have already made this change on at least some of their cards. Mortgages, credit lines and loans got more expensive in the past 12 months as the BOC increased rates to fight inflation, but the rise in credit-card rates is the harshest of all. The very definition of financial stress is carrying a big credit-card debt. ….
Credit-card interest rates are not actually connected to the central bank’s overnight rate. Instead, they reflect a bank’s calculation about how much it can squeeze out of clients to be profitable after covering fraud losses, defaults and the cost of reward programs. © 2023 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.””
— We were to be so healthy :-(
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/21618494/australians-deaths-excess-uk/
DEATH RIDDLE Mystery as Australians dying at levels not seen in 80 years – and UK might be seeing same phenomenon
Isabel Shaw Published: 11:15, 7 Mar 2023
Actually, the economy does not have to be trashed so that people can afford a house.
Seems a contradiction, but a booming economy may bring lower pricing since it would anchor a permanent high level of interest rates, and wages would not climb fast enough to offset the higher carrying costs.
But should the economy go into recession, and there is no evidence of that thus far, that would also go some way into restoring affordability.
Can’t know for sure when, but ……
Tick Tock, Tick Tock
Good Morning,
To get to 2% target inflation, interest rates will (have to) rise. Or face a long term structural inflation environment. Devalued loonie. Capital Flight… On the other hand the downturn in employment is not a given. Just look at the past 12 months of rate rises. Where are the mass layoffs?
Me thinks, an era of “easy money” is but a bygone. Leverage is the enemy of growth and thus prospects of value. Even the big banks extending morts from 25 to 35 years is a temporary fix. When that compounding debt gets to a level that makes the banks “assets” look like non-performing ones where are they going to find the next greaterfool? For all intents and purposes the technical default in residential and even office spaces is here. May not be all local to one jurisdiction, but looking at the global scenarios it is brewing beneath the surface, here and there.
To this mist of debt you add the spark of US debt ceiling, and by June markets will have a very different sentiment.
Time will tell.
Hahah I think Tiffy is about to find out what pretending Canada’s fiscal policy can be separate from America’s is gonna feel like!
Mike Hunt
Local market down about 19 percent from peak. Could get a little spring bounce but I see another 5-10 percent by next year then a multi-year flatline. Seen it all before.
This could be a mere swinging of a smelly, deceased feline.
?????????????????????????????????????
STOP THE ANTI-FELINE RACISM!
Meanwhile, dogawful mutts continue to ruin life for downtown dwellers in Toronto, causing massive conflicts between residents there:
https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2023/03/08/howls-of-outrage-over-citys-no-barking-sign-at-toronto-dog-park-bring-action.html
Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house? – Garth
Or do we really want houses to become so unaffordable that the people who will change our diapers when we get old can not afford them?
As much as realtors are happy about their I told you so moment, and buy now or be priced forever. The reality is this is not healthy for our economy either, and that people have to carry that much amount of debt or face very high rents. The best case scenario would be that real estate prices stay at this level for some time, after initial correction.
So what gives? Do we all get a pony and 5million dollar in the bank and live happily ever after?
Mid April isn’t that far away – 5 weeks or so. That does give time for those who plan to purchase before rates ‘might’ go up again to seal a deal. Is it wise to do so? Well, if they were going to buy in any case why wait? The prices for RE are already creeping upwards again so may as well get whatever bargain one can. But this presumes said potential purchasers have the financial chops to handle the kind of debt load purchasing will bring. An old saying for those who loaded their plates at the dinner table was “Your eyes are bigger than your stomach”. So when loading up the debt plate be very sure you are not taking on more than you can handle. And for sure avoid using a variable rate mortgage! Right now, that is the financial version of Russian Roulette.
“Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house?” – GT
I suppose that’s a rhetorical question. The problem lies with a nation of lazy thinkers who want the nanny state to engineer a solution to every possible problem that comes along, especially the ones that are self created.
Here’s the latest ‘mind blowing’ bit of government interference and spending ( coming to your province soon ):
https://www.cp24.com/news/birth-control-will-soon-be-free-in-british-columbia-will-ontario-follow-suit-1.6304673
Cost estimated at 119 million dollars over three years. When in hell did this become a priority, especially given other health care needs across the country? Just keep those legs closed, sisters. ( yeah, I know a Judge in Alberta got in trouble for saying that, but I thought it was funny…). Rachel Notley ( our former NDP Premier) already at the microphone beaking off about what a great idea it is and that Alberta should follow the BC model. You just lost the election with that bit of stupidity, Rachel.
Here’s what William Watson ( Editorial NP) said this morning about it:
““Unchallenged,” I’d say, was the media reaction to the B.C. government’s budget decision last week to provide prescription birth control to all B.C. residents free of charge. It was already provided under provincial pharmacare, which involves some cost sharing up to a maximum expenditure per year. And it was already free to people on income assistance and people receiving First Nations Health Benefits. But now it will go to anyone with a prescription, regardless of income: trucker, tailor, soldier, spy, banker, banker’s spouse, MP even. Top 50 per cent, top 10 per cent, top 1.0 per cent. Everyone.”
Exactly. When oh when are people going to stand up and throw these bums out?
Garth: Special request::: Can you please add the word TESLA and Elon Musk to the same list of ‘banned phrases or words’, i.e. like ‘Laurentian you know what’ ? We all know the hysteric just harps away on these issues to try and bait Sail Away. Bit of a crashing bore.
The occasional financial/stock reference is tolerable, but lately the blog has become stuffed to the rafters with EV this, car crash that, etc. Bit of a crashing bore..
I fear you’re right, Garth, and this correction in the last year is the last we’ll see for another generation or two.
While we may not have the parabolic increases of 2021, I can’t see a scenario where prices retreat much more than they already have, for a few reasons. With vacancy rates what they are in cities like Halifax and Toronto, and so many thousands of new projects on perpetual hold, supply is and will be constrained for years to come. On top of that, we’re importing hundreds of thousands of new Canadians, they all come from countries that value physical real estate, and they’re all bringing the family fortune with them. On top of that, there’s all this pent up demand from the last 2-3 years. On top of that, every time you talk about prices going up, the steerage section howls, telling me there’s still huge demand for real estate.
I think this might be the last chance people will ever have to lever themselves to the maximum, do everything they can to scrape together the down payment, put in an offer above asking, and get onto the real estate ladder. It’ll be a challenge for many, true, but that’s no different from how it’s always been.
Lastly – and probably most concerning – every fibre of my instincts is screaming at me that now is the worst time to buy, and it’s a trap. But I know myself well enough to know that, whenever my instincts are telling me one thing, the right move is to do the opposite.
I think people with the guts to buy now will be handsomely rewarded in 3-5 years, and those who hesitate will be kicking themselves. They’re not making any more land, and, at least for now, they’re not making any more houses, either.
The only question that remains is, when borrowers inevitably get into trouble, how much will the government bail them out? Not will they (because we know they will, it’ll be a useful distraction from whatever scandal is happening when it happens, and guarantee their election), but what will the bailout look like?
If 70% of the citizens in Canadastan own homes, why are so many living paycheck to paycheck? And using food banks? I’ll tell you why- you don’t own anything until it’s paid for. Like my ’02 Dodge pickup, and everything else I own and is paid for. Quit deceiving yourselves and admit you’re just dwelling in your domicile for the next 25 years as a guest of the bank.
“Attached photo is our four legged rescue – SkipTheWonderDog – as he enjoys a rare snowfall at our Sedona AZ Winter residence.”
——–
Ah, Sedona… what a spot. We have friends in Flagstaff who love their skiing and mountain biking.
Nice physical conformance on Skip- he looks like a working dog. Have you skijored with him? It’s great fun.
I think it’s important to differentiate between financial markets and the real economy. In the real economy, average people are hurting, and have been hurting for a while. The financial markets, by contrast, have done exceptionally well since the GFC, due to incessant money printing and negative real interest policy.
So when you ask if I want to trash the economy so people can once again afford a home, I think you need to understand the economy is already trash for a lot of people. Lots of people that are employed are nevertheless falling behind. What I want is sane/sustainable monetary policy where money once again costs something and portfolios/assets aren’t aggressively subsidized at bubble valuations. Yes, that would be bad for the financial markets in the short to medium term, but so be it. The markets have had had bad stretches before, and the world didn’t end. I don’t think it would be as bad for the real economy as you think – certainly no worse than the current state of affairs. It’s well past time regular people need to have a chance again.
I gotta say, number 6 must’ve seen porky’s? Lol
Thought I’d repost this comment, was hoping to see what others thought:
A little info in case you want to understand housing in Canada.
House prices in Canada cannot come down as much as they did in the USA (a few years back). Accept it.
Houses in Canada are simply not used for housing anymore. Those who want a house to live in and can afford it, have already bought.
Houses are now a commodity. They are an investment.
(It would be silly to buy a million dollar asset and park your behind in it)
You buy it and rent it out or sell it for capital gains.
That’s it… no more, no less.
AI oracles?
This Algorithm Could Ruin Your Life
A system used by the Dutch city of Rotterdam attempted to rank people based on their risk of fraud. The results were troubling.
https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/algorithm-could-ruin-your-life
work from home? back in 2021
Paz admitted that he developed the process and recipe to create the counterfeit fentanyl-laced oxycodone pills, and that he pressed almost 500,000 of these counterfeit pills. Paz turned over $800,000 in U.S. currency and 32.8 bitcoins to federal investigators upon his arrest that were proceeds from his involvement in the drug distribution with Shamo.
Bitcoin (BTC) price per day from Apr 2013 – Mar 08, 2023 (in U.S. dollars)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/
…. a drug trafficking organization that imported fentanyl and alprazolam from China and used the drugs to manufacture fake oxycodone pills made with fentanyl and counterfeit Xanax tablets.
….“In today’s world of Dark Web and cyber crimes, drug dealers don’t always fit the stereotypical image of years past where the danger and effect of their crimes was confined to local jurisdictions. The Dark Web allowed the defendants in this case to operate their criminal organization from the safety and comfort of their own homes. ‘
https://www.justice.gov/usao-ut/pr/aaron-shamo-s-co-defendants-sentenced-dark-web-narcotics-distribution-case
wired has a story about the take down of the fentanyl king
simultaneous takedowns across Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston;
https://www.wired.com/story/on-the-trail-of-the-fentanyl-king/
The economy crumbling is probably not what any rational thinking Canadian wants. It could happen though, prices became irrational. People are still blaming lack of supply and foreign buyers. I’m still confused how a 50% drop is being thought of as ridiculous. Doing the math, @3% return on properties, places in the LM burbs should drop 50% and still be extremely expensive. Sure there will be some sales, just like there were sales in 2008. People renewing at 5% or more is the real question. How many can handle a few hundred to thousands extra at renewal. The fact amortizations are being extended and these owners are basically renting from the banks now shows how bad the situation is. Everyday potential buyers are being shut out due to financing. The clocks ticking for many as there is so few that make the money to handle the increased monthly cost. Go ahead and buy but its pretty much a given the property will be less in a few months.
#170 Dharma Bum on 03.09.23 at 10:38 am
Sometimes work circumstances become so ridiculously untenable that pulling the plug before it’s too late is the smart thing to do.
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Absolutely correct ; sometime in your late 40’s as you approach financial independence your “bullshit” detector will be fully honed.
If you shift to working for a purpose; as you grow more experienced (wiser & richer) more and more you will sniff out the sociopathic behavior of the “leadership class” which characterizes most organizations. You will grow disenchanted with the games, compromises rationalizations and rivalries of these ego-driven potentates.
In most organizations; those whom are the more ruthless and exhibit the more sociopathic inclinations get to the top.
“We are societies of altruists governed by psychopaths, that those who claim to represent us, those who get into positions of power, are very often wildly different in that psychology to those whom they claim to represent.” – George Monbiot
Being in a position where you have freedom and autonomy is the goal. It probably why small business owners are so apt to never let go; they have got work purpose and control.
If you are only working for money then once you have enough the work can seem pretty pointless, often distasteful and contrary to your ethics; you are trading time for unnecessary money. “Time is the Fire we burn in”.
As one poster is apt to mention “Freedom First!”
”But a detached pile in the LM or the GTA for seven large is not happening.”-Thor Turner.
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It only took 20,000 posts, but it’s safe to say after reading that, the boss of this blog no longer reads my posts…
M48BC
I think that saying “we may not have hit bottom” is probably the most prescient statement made here today, Garth.
The household debt issue and mortgage renewals are all just in the early stages. I know of so many personal contacts and secondhand stories about how this is getting worse week by week. And the just reported credit card debt report casts a bright light on this, up enormously in Q4 of 2022.
https://www.baystreet.ca/baystreetschool/1104/Credit-Card-Debt-In-Canada-Hits-A-Record-100-Billion
Who cares one way or the other… live your life
The number of debt 0% interest transfer offers I am getting lately is quite high. All of course comes with a 2% fee.
No thanks but nice try.
Wouldn’t surprise me how many people play the rotating game; pay 2% fee for 12 months and then shuffle to somewhere else instead of paying the actual cc rates
The next year will be an awkward balance of trying to keep up with the FED on hikes, not destroy the loonie and not destroy housing or cause rampant inflation.
Good luck everyone
Evidence.
– Sales volumes way down.
– Prices dropping.
– 35 yr amortizations to keep people in their homes.
– Mortgage Brokers, Realtors w/multiple property investments dumping them while they still can as they are bleeding money (an everyday occurrence on Angry Bird).
– Immigration are people looking to start a new life, they have not to date saved Cdn RE nor have they in the past year.
List goes on.
– Homes cost too much to mortgage. Rates are too high.
– Large number of VRM holders having YET to renegotiate rates.
– Every 5 years 20% of the Fixed Rate crowd will have to renegotiate.
Not only are new buyers hampered, so are existing buyers.
——-
Sorry, but the above says that Cdn RE may well implode this year, if not, death by a 1,000 cuts in the next 4 years.
The best scenario for them is recession, hopefully they get to keep their jobs as rates go down.
—————
The GFC started because Americans could not afford their mortgage payments and there were a lot of them, 10-15% of the market. Here is a number for you Garth:
Q3 2022, Wealth stats by StatCan, $ Trillion.
Real estate…………………..8.076
Mortgage liabilities………..2.079
= 26%
From the evidence so far, a good chunk of that 26% will be critical mass. The Banks can’t 35 yr amortize everyone. They will drop their short term cash severely & shareholders will not be happy.
The above is evidence and NOT conjecture. Call it doomsday, Armageddon or whatever you want. Couldn’t care less.
I deal in reality not fairy tales.
Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house?
I understand the impulse behind this question. But what about the obverse: do you never want to be able to afford a house so the economy stays buoyant?
IMHO….in my mid 60’s….and having lived through many RE cycles…it is a fool’s game to assume prices will “collap$e”.
There will be adjustments and haircuts…but history has shown that barring an economic depression…. its stable… stable… stable in short term….and uppa uppa uppa in the long term.
I mean you know, if Cdn RE is going to have some Renaissance you’d know from how well the Banks are doing and what Mr. Market thinks about them – mortgages big money for them.
Here is the 1Y, now even Royal is back in the Red, the rest best described as basket cases:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=1Y
Is there a glimmer of hope?
YTD shows a NOSE DIVE coincident with 35 yr amortization announcements, Earnings shortfalls and recent Cdn RE stats:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=YTD
YTD Mr. Market, typically 2-3 months outward looking says the Banks are not making money. Mortgages a big chunk of change to the Banks.
Cdn RE Implosion or Death by a 1,000 cuts is how it’s looking so far.
No fairy tale here.
#21 Flop…
Recency Bias F. Just come and say it.
Diplomats …
Let the bullets fly Garth.
This could be a mere swinging of a smelly, deceased feline. ” -Garth
lol!!! Man, you made my day!!
#11 the Jaguar on 03.09.23 at 12:14 pm
Garth: Special request::: Can you please add the word TESLA and Elon Musk to the same list of ‘banned phrases or words’?
We all know the hysteric just harps away on these issues to try and bait Sail Away.
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Oh, it’s fine. Ever since Garth put Wile E on notice that raging at, degrading and insulting other commenters will result in deplatforming, his rhetoric stayed the same but is now directed at Elon as proxy.
Sort of funny. Old man yells at cloud. A Friday chuckle.
If your mortgage is 70 + years long can you actually claim that you own anything, or the bank and the property owns you?
Greaterfools indeed…..
Media is doing the last ditch effort to convince you of enjoying “coveted” ownership lifestyle while simultaneously being the slave of the bank, strata fees, property taxes and now apparently if you try to sell the house you will negatively affect the economy and prosperity of the country and society.
Well, little beaver if you believe the media, and feel they have your best interest at hand don’t sell… as a matter of the fact go ahead and buy yourself another property.
Do not dare to realize generational gains on the real estate, Instead help the economy, keep on paying the interest on that mortgage, keep on feeling elated and better than the rest, don’t you dare to take the money out of the country on the vacation oversees (after all why do you think we give you only two weeks vacation to begin with?), much better to stay here and spend it here….nobody wants you to see the world, after all you might start asking tough questions…
Questions like: Why the picture does not fit the words coming out of the mouth of politicians…. be a good little beaver and keep on paying that interest for the next 70+ years while they are laughing all the way to the bank.
FYI : T Bill is paying above 5% right now. Zero risk….and no smelly renters….
To the rich people living alongside the big river in Canada : You got either stupid or greedy.
It did not have to be this way…
So, it turns out, BoC’s divergence with the Fed is nothing new, as per this article:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bank-canada-fed-head-historic-divergence-blow-loonie-2023-03-09/
“Canadian rates have peaked below U.S. rates in the three major tightening cycles since the start of the millennium, with the gap ranging between 50 and 75 basis points.”
So, if the Fed’s terminal rate is expected to be ~5.5%, it follows that Tiff might choose to stop at between 4.75% and 5%, based on historical precedent.
Another interesting point in the article is the claim that “The Canadian economy is just far more sensitive to interest rates … The transmission channels of monetary policy are more effective in Canada than in the U.S.”
So, it seems BoC could stay put for the rest of the year, or at best/worst add between 25 and 50 basis points to the rate.
Good news, or bad news, depending on your side of the tracks.
Food Bank use at all time high. Interest rates jumping. Debts have never been greater. Job numbers in Canada are cooked. Job losses taking off. Absolute worst time for anyone to consider buying. Just rent and be free.
It is better to own cash than owe cash.
#161 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.23 at 8:32 am
@#145 Faron
“all self driving cars are bad”.
—
Please show us where I said the above.
I have great admiration for the Waymos of the world who are developing l5 systems ethically and safely. And, guess what? They are way ahead of Tesla’s dead end L2 approach that is injuring and killing people at rates worse than human drivers.
The Jaguar, just because you have the hot ‘n steamies for Elon Musk and Sail Away, doesn’t mean my discussion of one includes the other. Also, asking for content control is a little hypocritical of you, isn’t it? Tesla is a publicly traded company. Discussing it’s successes (let me know when that happens) and failures of the corp and the CEO is material to a blog on investing.
Goodbye
One last dose of evidence.
Wealth.
Q1 to Q3 2022, Dollars (x 1,000,000) Change, % Change
Life insurance and pensions -199,059, -6.7%
Other financial assets -297,472, -4.6%
Real estate -697,835, -8.0%
That’s as of Sept last year. Imagine for a moment, what the above numbers look like near 6 months later.
Where’s the cash to buy up all this Cdn RE?
Not a fairy tale.
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Life insurance and pensions include the value of all life insurance and employer pension plans, termination basis. Excludes public plans administered or sponsored by governments: Old Age Security (OAS) including the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) and the Spouse’s Allowance (SPA), as well as the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans (CPP/QPP).
Other financial assets include total currency and deposits, Canadian short-term paper, Canadian bonds and debentures, foreign investments in paper and bonds, mortgages, equity and investment funds, and other receivables.
———————-
KEY WORD last definition:
DEPOSITS (you know, your Bank Account balance)
This is an exceptionally well heeled readership that Garth has.
Reality is shown above for most Cdns.
And I’m willing to bet 4th Qtr 2022 Wealth stats will be worse yet. What the heck, we’ve already had 3 consecutive quarters of wealth loss for the FIRST time in Cdn history … what’s another quarter going to matter?
Close the SAGI for 11%. Friday Tesla pump is immanent.
We have been to this movie before. Politicians all trying to be heros in North America. Changing laws, accomodating stupidty and people with bad decision making but in the end it all crashes and burns as does their political careers. Anyway you cut it housing is crashing and will continue to crash for many years ahead. Just stand back and wait years for the lowest prices at the lowest bottom end of the scale ever. When people have no job, no money, no savings they are hanging by a thread . How many are in these circumstances? Canada’s numbers are bullshit. USA numbers are better. We only buy in the USA. 10 times the population and 10 times more demand. We closed our cheque books years ago to wait for the lowest prices EVER.
I shall not be mocked
So what are we to make of this?
=========
That as the sterotype goes ,the Americans are cowboys and willing to move hard and fast with no regards to short term consequences as the size of their economy and entreprenaurial spirit will allow for quick rebound. Boom and bust cycles forever.
We on the other hand are more prudent ,I would say rightfully so as the size of our economy is so much smaller . It takes time for all of these rate hikes to cause “demand and job destruction” ,in real words mass layoffs until “the people” can’t afford much other than ( if even )food and shelter.
On the same note Canada’s economy is much less dynamic than the US and we have history of taking longer to bounce back without the O&G money.
In this current cycle of Liberal Globalist Insanity who simply is implementing policies to just destroy what we have without an actual plan to rebuild/repalce I am afraid it is the best we can do.
Those of us who have taken and finished “The million dollars journey” will be just fine .Those who have not and/or bought into the social warrior side of things will be sadly proven to be “The greater fool”.
Holding rates is prudent as to not banckrupt too many people and businesses.
There is only one lesson to be learend from history , no matter the achievements and place in history books : “Heroes die first ” .
“Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house? Ironically, without a job or during a nasty recession with tighter credit controls, that might not be so easy.”
I agree with your assessment. I am also convinced that there are many people who are willing to take the dice roll that they will be on the better end of a major recession, and that is why they are cheering for a crash of epic proportions.
Here in Bring Cash(aka B.C.)..
Surrey Council and Policing circus….
…They had proposed an almost 20% property tax increase…to cover cost of their uncertain policing transition model. BC NDP has decided to submit $90 million to Surrey to lessen the fiscal impact and reduce property tax increase by approx. 5%.
Uh….HUH???
That’s my BC tax $$$ going to assist the armpit of BC….aka Surrey.
Part of the contract with new Surrey police is that if it returns to RCMP…the newly hired Surrey police members will receive 18 months of salary as “severance” after only 6 months of employment.
Sidebar tidbit…in California…
Public School Teachers have job security /tenure after 18 months….versus University Professors require approx. 7 YEARS.
Forget about high housing prices.
……they mask the $$$ R*PE of the General Public by these spoiled Public Servants.
Even if rates go up another 1-2% or more (gasp) and housing drops another 10-20% respectively, affordability doesn’t change as interest and payments increase along with it.
Suppose at peak house a home cost 1.3M (assume that’s the amount mortgage anyway).
1.3M @ 2% = $5500/month
That house has since dropped about 30% from peak, but rates are up to 5%
1M @5% = $5800/month
If rates continue to increase and there are corresponding drops in value of the house, the payments and affordability stay about the same.
900k @6% = $5750/month
[email protected]% = $5600/month
[email protected]%= $5342/month
So, if you can’t afford a house in your market now, you likely won’t in the future.
Tiff blinked, but there is plenty of agony and torment ahead, all he has done is stretched out the consequences for the unavoidable ceiling for the BOC rates in this country, he knows it is coming, but stall has he may, he had and has the power of your extended financial pain.
What appears to be quietly happening with many home owners trying to keep up their once cheaper variable mortgage payments, they are trapped into the 6,7,8% range for variable mortgages, depending on if it is borrowed from HELOC, unsecured LOC or arranged bank variable mortgages, many of these same people are now turning to their credit cards to borrow money to stay in their home.
Some unfortunate homeowners are under money pressure, they are now jumping from the frying pan to the fire in trying to get by, they are caught between a rock and a hardball. Many are now stuck with Credit Card Balances with interest rates of up to 28 % on their Credit Cards to bail out the 7 or 8% commintments, is this making any sense? When the dust settles, I suspect this is not going to be a pretty picture.
In Canada, the Credit Card Debt has jumped 15% in Q4, this outstanding balance dollar figure is unthinkable, something that most of us never ever thought we would ever see in our lifetime.
If you cannot sustain 7 or 8% on payments, taking on more and more debt just to get by, something has to give, is home ownership really worth this price.
Looks like the big smoke has plenty of sales currently, let’s see how long that will last, once the BOC gets forceful in April.
Our grocery store owners say they have done nothing wrong; you go figure. Stores like Walmart and many others on certain grocery items, you can save 20,30 even 40% on some items, if you buy three or four as an example. Keep in mind you are going through self-serve, no extra cost to the store, if they can offer a 40% discount on a couple of bottles of jam or boxes of cereal, how excessive would their standard markup be, this has got to stop and only the people can do it, the Feds are not educated enough to figure it out, they just except what they are being told by the executives that everything is being done honestly, yet their profits are off the chart. The discount you are potentially given on some items are not discounts, but reality is, it is a picture of how they are ripping you off, “yelp” I mean you.
Why do single family and elderly people need 4 bottles of pickles, beets or the same type of cereal, the truth is, they only need one of each and secondly, they do not have the budget to purchase the 4 items, only to become outdated and be thrown out over time, what a waste of food while 100,000’s go without.
Quote of the day: We must all suffer from one of two pains: the pain of discipline or the pain of regret, the difference is discipline weighs ounces while regret weighs tons.
Garth, I’m telling you I have never seen such a jittery Mr. Market since what? The GFC?
I mean like today for instance.
In the Green this AM and now in the Red. Why? Unemployment claims were low but worried about the Jobs announcement in the US this Friday.
They would not normally react than the day after. It’s crazy if you ask me.
Personally, I don’t care. Sticking to my strategy which is largely harvesting dividends and not worrying about the stock prices.
But even for disinterested me, it is noticeable. I cannot imagine what a pain Mr. Market must be for Financial Advisors such as yourself Garth et. al.
I’m telling you Garth, if you earn the big bucks in this financial environment, well, they are deserved.
FWIW
#26 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 1:24 pm
The Banks can’t 35 yr amortize everyone. They will drop their short term cash severely & shareholders will not be happy.
========
A a layman I see it differently so maybe the resident accountants can pitch in here.
I would think that the longer the amortization ,the less pressure on originating new loans as the loan book is more stable (high) while generating a ton more of cash flow since the payments will go straigt to the bottom line without reducing the actual loan book value.
A bit more of increased risk and loan loss provisions ,but definitely very beneficial to the banks.
#13 ‘Really’ – you make an excellent point. Until one’s equity exceeds one’s outstanding debt owing most homeowners are technically renters, because the bank owns the asset, not them. Except the bank isn’t the one responsible for maintenance/upkeep or property taxes/utilities. In a way, home ownership is indentured tenancy. The main difference is that at some point you actually own the asset instead of the bank. And if the value of that asset increases you possibly come out ahead in the transaction. We were fortunate enough to be able to buy when RE prices were still reasonable – between two or three times our combined annual gross income. Interest rates were very high, but the ability to pay off a mortgage in 25 years or less was achievable. As a result, to the best of my ability to calculate we paid about the same owning as we would have done renting all these years including such additional expenses as property taxes, utilities & maintenance. The huge increase in RE prices no longer support such a scenario, though if rents continue to increase there may still be some situations where the two would be within striking range of being about the same over the long term. Note that I’m talking 25 years or more here, not a shorter amount of time.
#44 jack
Fundamental flaw in your argument.
The mortgage at $1.3M stays that way for 5 years if Fixed.
It does not go down because the home value has dropped.
The same is true if a VRM. The initial mortgage value remains $1.3M.
—————–
You are arguing affordability in time and price drops from $1.3M of:
1M = 23%
900K = 31%
800K = 38.5%
700K = 54%
Premature assumptions for certain the last one; though, I admire your zeal.
That’s the damn problem. Whenever anything is cheap, nobody has any money to buy it.
I was going to cash in a portion of my Garth ™ portfolio to snap up all this cheap real estate, except that the real estate didn’t get that cheap and my portfolio did.
In any case, Tiff will raise rates, because he has to. All he has done is gone from going first to going second. So now we can stop guessing “what’s Tiff going to do” and just watch Powell.
It would be nice to think Tiff has a choice, but he doesn’t. Inflation isn’t going down measurably, so Powell will keep moving. That puts pressure on the Canadian Peso, so inflation here will be worse. So Tiff has no choice. He must raise rates. Sure, it’s a tough choice. Impoverish the VRM crowd, or impoverish us all.
If “bubble symmetry” holds, the forecast is 5 to 10 years of high inflation, higher rates, and sideways to slowly down house prices. But the big drop may be behind us.
But here’s the thing folks, if you have your money is in the bank you are losing 6% (or so) per year to inflation. If you have it in a Garth ™ portfolio you are treading water until Trudeau/Singh take their cut, and then you lose up to half, so you are still going down 3% per year. So if you can afford the house, does it matter if it is also going down 3% per year? Probably not. There is no place to hide from something systemic, so if you want a house and can afford a house, buy a house. (I wonder who first said that?)
It is also useful to watch the gold price, because rocks are rocks. Portable real estate it is. So even though the US dollar price of gold isn’t doing anything great, in Canadian dollars it is way up! Why wouldn’t real estate do the same thing? Is it possible that in US dollars, Canadian real estate is actually tanking, badly? A US investor with Canadian real estate probably figures he’s lost his shirt! It’s down way more than 30%!
So a lot of the noise is probably just the Canadian Peso, doing what socialist Pesos always do, which is crater. Tiff can’t let that go on forever. Or maybe he can, I suppose anything is possible, but I don’t think we’re going to like that any better.
Remember, folks, the only thing that is truly priced in Canadian dollars is your labor. Let that sink in. And buy all the things, including US dollars. And gold. And maybe a house.
#4 Quintilian on 03.09.23 at 11:39 am
but should the economy go into recession, and there is no evidence of that thus far, that would also go some way into restoring affordability.
Can’t know for sure when, but ……
—————————————–
What’s wrong with a recession? Isn’t it part of the business cycle?
#41 ElGatoNeroYVR
Holding rates is prudent as to not banckrupt too many people and businesses.
————
I agree.
Notwithstanding that Canada is doing better than the US in fighting inflation and that imported US inflation only affects 15.5% of Cdn GDP, I believe the real reason BoC did not raise rates is as you say.
Besides, the next 2 BoC rate announcement meetings are:
April 12 (incl Monetary Policy), June 7
so it’s not like the BoC has paused for the entire year, never again to consider a rate hike.
People somehow get the latter in their heads and I do not understand why?
I tell you things are shaky, US bank prime is now 7.75% and brokers are asking for 9% for margin loans. Speculators (like me) are getting killed. I am getting my margin down as fast as I can. This is getting very serious and no fun.
#45 chalkie
In Canada, the Credit Card Debt has jumped 15% in Q4
——————
Where are you getting that number from?
Q1 to Q3 2022, Dollars (x 1,000,000) change, % Change
Other liabilities = +24,015, +3.3%
That’s +3.3% for 3 Qtrs in total.
The actual $ value is low when your compare to say Mortgage Liabilities end of Q3 = $2,079,185 at Dollars (x 1,000,000).
THAT 15% is one hell of a jump in just 1 Qtr! Like near 5X the rest of the year combined.
Not saying your number is wrong, would like to know where you got that number from?
Curious and not accusatory.
———–
Other liabilities include major credit cards and retail store cards, gasoline station cards, etc., vehicle loans, lines of credit, student loans, other loans from financial institutions and other money owed.
#45 chalkie
Quote of the day: We must all suffer from one of two pains: the pain of discipline or the pain of regret, the difference is discipline weighs ounces while regret weighs tons.
——————–
Great quote! and very timely. Definitely applies to the overextended homeowners.
Think grocery prices are bad now? Watch them climb even higher as our dollar continues to sink. Same with fuel since oil is in USD. Was in Vancouver yesterday – 1.82 a litre! They’ll be looking at 2.00 before summer.
No soft landing and there will be/is a recession. It’s already started but I guess most need to hear it from the media before it’s real to them.
#46 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 2:30 pm
Garth, I’m telling you I have never seen such a jittery Mr. Market since what? The GFC?
I mean like today for instance.
In the Green this AM and now in the Red. Why? Unemployment claims were low but worried about the Jobs announcement in the US this Friday.
———-
Yep. Markets have been pretty flat since last May, so any index-type investing will be the same. Utilities have done fine and dividends are the bright spot.
Good time to do nothing, or add to positions. Historical precedent will re-establish.
This isn’t a question of what we want, but what is inevitable. I started reading this blog around 2010 or so. Since then, I’ve heard you say, ad nauseum, that Canadian house prices are inflated, don’t follow any price/rent ratio logic, and that the entire thing was just one big gas bag. In the 2 years of the pandemic, those prices exploded to stratospheric levels, qualifying a tear-down in Toronto to be a set for the “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous” with Robin Leech, and now, suddenly, this blog is saying, “well, things might cool a bit, but don’t expect anything big”.
So which is it? Were you wrong for 10 years about housing in Canada, and current prices are likely to stay, or are we still sitting on the mother of all bubbles. It can’t be both. Holy cow.
“Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house? Ironically, without a job or during a nasty recession with tighter credit controls, that might not be so easy. Real estate won’t just crumble without taking a big bite out of GDP and consumer confidence on the way down.”
You want reality or hopium? Choose one. – Garth
So uhhh I guess Stocks are “on Sale” lately haha. Haha?
— Generation Z. Wags point out Z is the final letter of the alphabet. Nothing after it.
What will become of the next next generation. Genderless global workerbees programmed by their “Smart” devices?
— Back from my local Hipster brewery. With what trite and delectable offerings on tap.
Menu:
– Pinwheel Piqued Perseverance Plaid Pumpkin (Pilsner)
– Tesla’s Triggered Temptation (Sour Ale)
“Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house?”
Reverse scenario… how many today can really afford their house in a good economy? This blog says buy if you can without gutting your finances yet, based on all the data presented over the years that has not been the case for most buyers.
Wow just turned off the sound on BNN (sorry GARTH)
and it sure looks red also look at our dollar not very
good for those going to Palm Springs at Spring Break.
“Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house?”
Yes, that’s exactly what I want to happen. High house prices are bad for us all. Divides society. Blocks movement. Breaks up marriages. Raises rents. Kills retirement.
A housing market crash will harm people, but it is hard to feel sorry for the very people that caused this problem. They might have been ignorant, but their actions created this mess. They need to wear it.
“Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house?”
It sounds like you have realized that we can’t have a housing crash without crashing the economy. I said this a while ago in the comments and I got chewed out for it. I said something along the lines of “Housing crashing will send us into a recession”. We can argue about whether that is technically what is happening, but no doubt that housing is playing a role in everything. For instance, because we are a country so deep up to our elbows in mortgage debt and because we don’t have 30 year fixed rates, Tiffer has had his hands tied and has paused rates, something the US fed doesn’t have to deal with. So the loonie is now going to collapse which will further cause inflation and welcome to a vicious cycle. Many economists now say a recession is unavoidable and will happen by Q3 this year. So if we have a recession with 6 or 7% mortgage rates, how can real estate rebound? The two go hand and hand together. If housing crashes it will drag the economy down, or vice-versa. You can’t split them up, not when a country relies so heavily on housing for wealth.
No need to add anything…the FED is not done…too soon to call anything
Forbes:
Dow Falls Nearly 600 Points As Fed Chair Powell Warns More Severe Rate Hikes On Deck
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/03/07/dow-falls-nearly-600-points-as-fed-chair-powell-warns-more-severe-rate-hikes-on-deck/
Flop Drops.
I saw a house go for 24 million yesterday.
If you put 20% down the monthly payment was only 120k a month.
Here, during Flop Drops reign of terror, I’ve been trying to keep it real.
Places like Mission, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge you can get a liveable detached for well under a million.
South of Fraser, Abbotsford, Langley, Chilliwack,yeah no problem, the later close to half a million, no sweat.
I showed a one year old house in Hope sell for 750k yesterday, some people consider that the Eastern boundary of the Lower Mainland, others Chilliwack.
A block of land to build on is a little over a million in Vancouver, Richmond, Burnaby and North Vancouver.
West Vancouver? Who cares?
Let’s look at some of that affordable living people are talking about.
The details…
Original ask 559k
Assessment 749k
Just sold for 550k
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2750430/11-46000-THOMAS-ROAD-Chilliwack-BC/
So there’s been a few sales recently in that area, they knew where to place the hook to catch the fish.
Monthly payment easily under 3k if you put 20% down, you don’t have to choke on the bones when your watching tv, instead of looking at your plate..
M48BC
I’m in the bear savage camp. But I see on the ground the evidence that you are correct. There has been a flurry of activity in the big cities. (We are in Metro Van)
The combination of these two points is why we are getting this rat shack ready to list NOW! To suck what we can out of this bear rally before it takes another leg down.
If it goes the other way I won’t care because we’ll be in the place we plan to stay for a while. My term is up anyway in June and I’m going for a fixed but shorter term. Maybe 2-3 yrs. Rates should be a lot higher in 5 years.. but I am willing to be they will be lower or even zero to bail out the system once again!
#54 Dolce Cita
Press release today, financial post Canadian Press release
@ #42 Aaron
“Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house? Ironically, without a job or during a nasty recession with tighter credit controls, that might not be so easy.”
I agree with your assessment…..
*************************
Your sentiment is too narrow
My guess is that you are too young to have lived through the wage|price spiral of the 1970’s.
Here is a refresher:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wage-price_spiral
#32 Sail Away on 03.09.23 at 1:50 pm
#11 the Jaguar on 03.09.23 at 12:14 pm
Yes, narcissists like yourself do think everything is about them.
In light of that, here’s the reality.
1) To me, Elon’s been in the category rank, stanken garbage since 2018. Luckily, I’ve only been graced with your effluent since ’20. So, there’s a wee mismatch.
2) Congrats, you’ve cut back on your discharge. Perhaps taking a page out of my fair home city Victoria’s book. So, there’s just less to point out. I mean, gosh, you haven’t revelled in the deaths of idealistic travellers in at least a few months. Compared the racist murder of a family to statue toppling in a year Mocked thousands of COVID deaths in a couple years. Things are indeed looking better for you and your overall nastiness. Congrats.
#54 Dolce Vita
Financial Post Canadian Press release today.
Also announced on multiple media today.
https://leaderpost.com/business/money-news/canadian-credit-card-debt-up-15-in-q4-younger-people-feel-hardest-pinch-equifax
TORONTO — Canadian credit card debt soared in the last three months of 2022 amid rising interest rates and stubbornly high inflation with younger Canadians in particular relying on credit to make ends meet.
fox sure is buying back a lot of shares?
=======
claw back
dis -entanglements -‘faithless servants”
JP and ex Jes Staley
https://www.reuters.com/legal/jpmorgan-must-hand-over-ceo-dimons-records-jeffrey-epstein-lawsuit-2023-03-09/
RE: Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house?
=======================================
No, but I’d rather “trash the economy” now with higher interest rates than waiting for inflation to “trash the economy” far worse later…
Also, see what just happened to Silicon Valley Bank? I’m in tech and have been watching layoffs for months now; peeps with salaries that can actually pay the bills, dropping like flies all around.
This could be Lehman Bros 2.0 as the effect of the rate hikes finally starts hitting the financial system??
January goods trade, jobs and prices in the US and Canada are exploding. Interest rates have to go way higher than anyone thinks.
Will you do a ‘Still More Greater Fools’ sequel to ‘Greater Fools’ one day? It seems, upon rereading your book, that it’s all just gotten worse. Perhaps Canada is just filled to the brim with greater fools with more on the way.
The thing about housing is that this last decade of history was the biggest boom possible because of quantitative easing (low interest rates). Unfortunately, it cannot be repeated for a number of reasons. So there is a good chance after another five years it will be clear that real estate is not great for speculation, as prices will hold, fall, rise a bit, but never return to these levels.
The other factor is clearly the energy situation. Progressives have it right that climate change is going to do a number on us, including affecting food sources in waves of inflation, and will affect industrial production too (energy intensive ones). But, progressives generally have the mistaken believe that the renewable energy transition can ride to the rescue to replace and keep things humming along as normal. Quite obvious that that is more difficult than thought now – Europe showed that. At best, renewables will keep the descent slow. The shale industry in the US was like a snooze button for oil – gave another 10-15 years of moderate prices. But all basins are tapped and peaked in NA, except the Permian. The story on the Permian according to a shale CEO recently is about 6-7 years left, and a peak at 1 million barrels a day less than thought.
So, we’re all riding into a storm here of energy and climate problems that are often inflationary. Even hydroelectric is problematic with declining water reserves in many places. So, food, housing and gas/electricity are the focus now. Smaller speculative bubbles can be triggered in housing, but it is likely those heights will not come back simply because of the more inflationary bouts, and the speculators will be damaged a few times before thinning out. Yes, there is the high immigration levels for now, but they are less wealthy than they once were from what I’m hearing. How long that lasts is a good question and not an insignificant factor. So, what I’m saying is that housing as a great speculation approach is dying. Robust economies are being replaced with fragile economies for all of the reasons above.
Prices can drop by 2025/30 from here. Nothing guaranteed, but I think that people are deceiving themselves by thinking the past of growth with shorter periods of recession is the norm. Think almost the reverse.
Still no great deals to be had, prices down in varying percentages across the board with mortgage rates way up with more increases to come.
Banks re amortization of trigger rate loans…
Not much has changed actually, at least for the better.
It’s called the shell game.
And AI knows exactly what to do, to screw you.
#57 Sail Away
Could not agree more. No truer words.
————–
#67 Chalkie & #70 chalkie (latter: is that you the former ???)
GOOD GET & thank you for saving me a search.
Mind boggling.
Near 5X increase in 1 Qtr the previous 3 Qtrs combined.
Equifax reliable in my books. Still having a tough time wrapping my mind around that increase.
Maybe the chickens have come home to roost after all?
I hope not.
Hoping it’s just Halloween, XMas, Vacay excesses and not indicative of what is to come. People cutting loose after Covid Captivity and/or because of financial bad news.
Fingers crossed. Hope last to die.
We Feel sorry for the grocery industry. Every politican is a critic and an expert. The food and grocery industry supply food banks and soup kitches etc across Canada free of charge. They have to pay for shipping, trucking customs etc. and have little leeway on prices the suppliers demand to get paid right away. Warehouses and stores can become off price sellers in flash.
https://www.mapleridgenews.com/business/grocery-ceos-deny-accusations-that-food-price-inflation-is-driven-by-profit-mongering/
Sorry to say Garth when talking about fools …I’ll leave it at that. Trying to ply both sides is chicken shit—we’re in for a reckoning…for God sakes WAKE THE HELL UP!
I think this really depends on our bank regulator and foreign influence. This blog has mentioned the amortization adjustments to a rather large proportion of mortgages out there so people can keep on going.
I’m thinking that along with impending new credit restrictions that issue is attracting attention as well.
The effects of the regulator’s decisions, American rate increases and the forex traders on our dollar make this impossible to predict.
Tiff seems to be betting on the Americans to go too far and instigate a recession there, thereby avoiding a housing disaster at his hands. Since he never raised rates he catches rate equality on their rate reductions once the recession deepens, or they have a credit event that does the same. The loonie, not sure if that would appreciate against the US dollar as it falls since we are so tied at the hip. I personally think he’s going to lose that bet if that is what he is doing.
Don’t mess with Ron that dude knows what he is talking about.
#70 chalkie on 03.09.23 at 3:50 pm
#54 Dolce Vita
Financial Post Canadian Press release today.
Also announced on multiple media today.
https://leaderpost.com/business/money-news/canadian-credit-card-debt-up-15-in-q4-younger-people-feel-hardest-pinch-equifax
TORONTO — Canadian credit card debt soared in the last three months of 2022 amid rising interest rates and stubbornly high inflation with younger Canadians in particular relying on credit to make ends meet.
*********
Also happening in the US. It started in their news cycle in last year.
Dolce. Maybe it didn’t make twitter news. MoneySense had an article on it on December 29 in regards to Canada. I posted some other links in the past also.
The debt train left the station years ago…do we really have a choice in determining what is already set in motion and piled on at every stop along the way?
Sorry about all the posts here Garth (and ya, you got me going with your Blog admonitions, enjoyed them thoroughly) but that Chalkie GET about the credit card debt increase in Q4 2022
“younger Canadians in particular relying on credit to make ends meet.”
really got to me.
—————
Went took a quick look see at the Weath stats, again, and the Less than 35 years old cohort lost this much wealth OVERALL Q1 to Q3, Dollars (x 1,000,000) change, % change:
-112,142. -11.0%
Credit card etc. debt, ibid:
Other liabilities
+4,193, +3.4%
So, you know, it is entirely believable that the Less than 35 years olds are turning to their credit cards to make ends meet. Still, a 5X increase in one Qtr … OY VEY.
They are the future and life’s blood of Canada, intolerable to learn in detail their plight for Paleos like me.
You don’t want to see them go thru what we went through in the 80s and early 90s – perhaps looking even worse.
‘And after reading his statement, it looks like he’s willing to sit tight until he’s absolutely forced to take action.’
How low will Tiff allow our $ to crash while he ‘sits tight’?… adios to his 3% inflation by beach season..
#49 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 2:38 pm
#44 jack
Fundamental flaw in your argument.
The mortgage at $1.3M stays that way for 5 years if Fixed.
It does not go down because the home value has dropped.
The same is true if a VRM. The initial mortgage value remains $1.3M.
—————–
You are arguing affordability in time and price drops from $1.3M of:
1M = 23%
900K = 31%
800K = 38.5%
700K = 54%
//////////////
Oh Dolce you were on a roll there, but the last one should be 46%.
#65 Flop…
Here, during Flop Drops reign of terror, I’ve been trying to keep it real.
—————
I love you Flop. You are appreciated by me. Just ’cause you get no love in writing does not mean you don’t get love, just quietly so. And ya, you keep it real and down to Earth.
Keep Commenting.
Your takes are very good including the part sardonic, yet leaving it to a person’s imagination, monthly PMT calc on the super luxury home.
Who can afford that?
Not me that’s for sure. Maybe in about 10 lifetimes?
Garth – “Some folks are moving in because they smell an irresistible, soon-to-be-gone bargain. Others are holding out, hoping for a disaster. A year from now we’ll know who were the fools.”
—————————————————————-
Yes, those with money or a cheap mortgage to port over can be swooping in to buy. However, the average house is more unaffordable now to the average buyer than a year ago. How does that create a bottom?
I’m not predicting a dramatic collapse in house prices but a long grinding slow descent until the point where houses are more affordable.
Unless it really is different this time and affordability doesn’t matter any more? The government brings in 40 or 50 year amortizations? Provides even more screwed up taxpayer funded ways to help people to buy houses?
#61 cuke and tomato picker on 03.09.23 at 3:26 pm
Wow just turned off the sound on BNN (sorry GARTH)
and it sure looks red also look at our dollar not very
good for those going to Palm Springs at Spring Break.
——————
What’s wrong with staying home for spring break?
Conditions look great for skiing and golfing in the Lower Mainland.
And for the mature folks, there’s pickle ball.
#86 Penny Henny
Like you would even have had the brains to make that connection in the first place.
Cheap, minutiae comment.
Oh, and I know I screwed up the last number after the fact but I was assuming people rational enough to realize that near 50% is stretching the imagination on price drops at present.
Apparently, not all are rational, you, case in point.
I believe you would have a great career as a Forensic Account bean counter but do not expect higher order thinking other than mucking about with the numbers.
You should look into it.
It’s Loblaws fault.
I’ve just pieced it together.
Nothing to do with the banks, nope.
It’s the farmers fault.
Our government thinks we are all idiots.
“All the lonely sheeple where do they all come from?”
This won’t end well.
Soren Angst math is on the prowl again.
Take it easy on the Proseco, man.
Inflation is meant to destroy demand.
There is no good news for variable rate mortgage holders that are a couple of bucks from hitting their trigger rate.
All this drama and we are still a ways out from seeing the full extent of the designed distruction. It’s more like a dead people bounce…pfft the Mac said that it will be Painful.
Amazon driver shares viral TikTok of the company’s AI system that tracks her movements
https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-delivery-driver-shares-viral-tiktok-ai-monitoring-system-tracking-2023-2
An Amazon driver took to social media to explain how the company’s AI camera system can be used to flag delivery drivers for doing anything from taking a sip of coffee to failing to buckle their seatbelt enough times.
The TikTokker known as @ambergirts posted a video on Saturday breaking down how the tracking system works. Over the past two days, the video has garnered over 400,000 views.
===============================
COMMENT:
Wait till they are self driving !!!
Fine the AI for doing self oil – change !!!
#83 DON
Don I read Canada Yahoo Finance, BNN, CTV, Global News every morning (and StatCan Daily in case they dropped any bombs while I was asleep here in Italia).
That one got by me.
And did not catch your links. Sorry. I do read your stuff so you know.
There’s just so much going on at present, it’s hard to keep up at times.
Why I like reading the Comments here. People like you and Chalkie come up with stuff that escaped me and that was significant.
I will admit though, I tend to concentrate on investment news, even on Twitter. Mea Culpa but grateful for people like you and Chalkie.
US or Canada, it’s very bad news to me about the financial plight of the kids. Very bad indeed.
Moderate Hassan Rohani won in a landslide, vowing to rehabilitate Iran’s foreign relations and ease its isolation. CORRECTED-UK top court ruling threatens Western sanctions against Iran 10 years ago
…”Best known for laundering billions of dollars for Iran, notorious gold smuggler Reza Zarrab’s ties to Russia received only passing mention when he was prosecuted in the U.S. in 2016.
That was a huge oversight…
Sergey Magnitsky, who uncovered a massive fraud and later died in a Russian jail cell. Companies used to embezzle the fraud money were tied to Zarrab’s Bella Investments.
Zarab’s Dubai-based Bella Investments Company secretly handled around $1.25 billion in suspicious wire transactions over four years.
Leaked documents show around half of that involved Russian companies, most of it transferred as the country plunged into recession in 2008.
Several companies that dealt with Bella Investments also made payments to shell companies closely tied to Russia’s notorious Magnitsky case.
One former courier estimated that Zarrab’s network also smuggled as much as $300 million in cash into Russia, much of it stashed in suitcases.
https://www.occrp.org/en/the-fincen-files/by-suitcase-and-by-wire-how-reza-zarrab-smuggled-russias-money
#69 Faron on 03.09.23 at 3:49 pm
#32 Sail Away on 03.09.23 at 1:50 pm
Yes, narcissists like yourself do think everything is about them.
Luckily, I’ve only been graced with your effluent since ’20.
Things are indeed looking better for you and your overall nastiness. Congrats.
———
Hmm…
As our 4yo niece said when she was given the role of the wicked witch: ‘I don’t know how to be wicked’
#76 Saskatoon Yeah, someone else woke up. Also Freedom First posted the other day. Nice to see.
What cannot be sustained, won’t.
The Canadian real estate price/income ratio is unsustainable.
Consider my vote for the burn it all down option.
People need to learn that speculation and leverage have downside risk, if that involves some tears, so damn well be it.
#97 Sail Away on 03.09.23 at 5:34 pm
Yep, pump’s primed. Stand back. Clear the waters off Clover Point.
#92 Ponzius Pilatus
Same applies to you as my response to Penney Henney.
Yet another cheap, minutiae dweller.
And it’s Negroni, though I do occasionally mix up a Venetian Spritz here at home (mix directions on a bottle of Aperol and yes, Prosecco a part of the mix).
Negroni tastes great to me and is easy for me to remember:
Equal parts Gin, Red Vermouth, Campari, glass 2/3 full ice cubes. Stirred not shaken. Campari last to be poured so it can work it way down the drink as it is the heaviest of the 3 ingredients (same with a Spritz, Aperol last pour as it is the heaviest of the ingredients).
In fact, going to pour myself a Negroni right now. And ‘ya I know it’s 016h here now in Italia.
Negroni goes very well with 432 Hz Meditation music.
You and Penney Henney need the latter more than I do (Negroni incl.).
Thank you for the unwitting reminder.
PS:
Don’t read you 2 commenting on my StatCan database slicing and dicing economic data now do I?
Why?
“Cause you don’t know how. Ingrates.
As part of her public censure, Ms. Ellis agreed that her legal work for Mr. Trump “caused actual harm by undermining the American public’s confidence in the presidential election.” Bar officials noted in the statement that “a selfish motive” and “a pattern of misconduct” were aggravating factors in the case.
Ms. Ellis admitted to 10 misrepresentations of the facts during her work for Mr. Trump, beginning within weeks of the election’s being called for Mr. Biden.
On Nov. 20, 2020, for example, Ms. Ellis appeared on fox claims of fraud — a position that she now acknowledges was untrue.
“We have affidavits from witnesses, we have voter intimidation,” she falsely claimed ….. “we have the ballots that were manipulated, we have all kinds of statistics that show that this was a coordinated effort in all of these states to transfer votes either from Trump to Biden, to manipulate the ballots, to count them in secret.”
also declared that Mr. Trump’s legal team had discovered more than 500,000 votes in Arizona “that were cast illegally.” She acknowledged in the statement issued on Wednesday that this claim was also false. new york times
#95 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 5:25 pm
#83 DON
Don I read Canada Yahoo Finance, BNN, CTV, Global News every morning (and StatCan Daily in case they dropped any bombs while I was asleep here in Italia).
That one got by me.
And did not catch your links. Sorry. I do read your stuff so you know.
There’s just so much going on at present, it’s hard to keep up at times.
Why I like reading the Comments here. People like you and Chalkie come up with stuff that escaped me and that was significant.
I will admit though, I tend to concentrate on investment news, even on Twitter. Mea Culpa but grateful for people like you and Chalkie.
US or Canada, it’s very bad news to me about the financial plight of the kids. Very bad indeed.
*********
Given the state of today’s news cycle we have to keep each other informed.
Cheers Dolce!
….”We need more housing; no one can deny that. But rents have jumped even in cities with plenty of apartments to go around. At the end of 2021, almost 19 percent of rental units in Birmingham, Ala., sat vacant, as did 12 percent of those in Syracuse, N.Y. Yet rent in those areas increased by roughly 14 percent and 8 percent, respectively, over the previous two years.
…”But in many cities with average or below-average housing costs — think Buffalo, not Boston — rents in the poorest neighborhoods are not drastically lower than rents in the middle-class sections of town.”
read more @
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/09/magazine/poverty-by-america-matthew-desmond.html
===========================
Do the Poor Pay More for Housing? Exploitation, Profit, and Risk in Rental Markets1
Matthew Desmond
and Nathan Wilmers
Abstract
This article examines tenant exploitation and landlord profit margins within residential rental markets. Defining exploitation as being overcharged relative to the market value of a property, the authors find exploitation of tenants to be highest in poor neighborhoods. Landlords in poor neighborhoods also extract higher profits from housing units. Property values and tax burdens are considerably lower in depressed residential areas, but rents are not. Because landlords operating in poor communities face more risks, they hedge their position by raising rents on all tenants, carrying the weight of social structure into price. Since losses are rare, landlords typically realize the surplus risk charge as higher profits. Promoting a relational approach to the analysis of inequality, this study demonstrates how the market strategies of landlords contribute to high rent burdens in low-income neighborhoods.
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/701697
Why is bigger, better? Who sez? Is it in the interest of citizens for Canadastan’s food distribution to be controlled by a few large corporate entities? Godless corporations, who answer to shareholders and mammon. Dr. Evil type shareholders like Statestreet, Blackrock and the like. Oh, these people really care about you, and will do the right thing, for the good of society……NOT!
Is it me, or is the faron versus sailaway spat redundant and frankly, childish and silly? What does Michael Hunt think about this? Paging Mike Hunt, your opinion is valued.
It is already happening. My brother-in-law has 3 properties bought with my sister 7 years ago and now has to sell 1 property at a total 41% loss which includes the real estate commission, all other closing costs. My brother-in-law is an accountant for 14 years now ironically as all the rental income loss, property price reductions, other expenses with this house, $250,000 gone. My parents were not financial smart people but they just had GICs which they never lost $250,000 in 7 years. Sometimes following the herd is a disaster.
#26 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 1:24 pm
#29 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 1:42 pm
#30 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 1:47 pm
#37 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 2:01 pm
#46 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 2:30 pm
#49 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 2:38 pm
#52 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 3:00 pm
#54 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 3:10 pm
#79 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 4:21 pm
#84 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 4:50 pm
#87 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 5:11 pm
#90 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 5:16 pm
#95 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 5:25 pm
#101 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 6:20 pm
+++++++++++++++++
Are you lonesome tonight………
@ #11 The Jaq
“Garth: Special request::: Can you please add the word TESLA and Elon Musk to the same list of ‘banned phrases or words’, i.e. like ‘Laurentian you know what’ ?”
Interesting. I know how you feel. Look at this post! This guy mentions Tesla 10 times and Elon 4 times in a single post.
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2022/12/28/the-meltdown/
Oh wait…. that is Garth’s own post. Hmmmm.
Probably he felt the need to offer an alternative to the numerous dopes who use the steerage section to pump T***a stock. Know anyone like that?
Now, show me a post where Garth mentions the Laurentian E***e?
How little perspective must you have to equate discussions about Tesla and FSD ( a real company and real issue with their cars) with the nonsensical conspiracy about Laurentian E***e mentioned most often here by the same twit who bored us all for 3 months about a stolen election.
As usual.. zero credibility.
#106 Really? Not! on 03.09.23 at 7:05 pm
Is it me, or is the faron versus sailaway spat redundant and frankly, childish and silly? What does Michael Hunt think about this?
Paging Mike Hunt, your opinion is valued.
===================
You forgot about Mike Rotch…..
#106 Really? Not! on 03.09.23 at 7:05 pm
Is it me, or is the faron versus sailaway spat redundant and frankly, childish and silly? What does Michael Hunt think about this? Paging Mike Hunt, your opinion is valued.
———
I personally have no spat and carry no responsibility for others who may cast aspersions against my good name.
I further agree that any apparent spat would be silly, childish and redundant, and those responsible should be immediately and violently punished.
#106 Really? Not! on 03.09.23 at 7:05 pm
Is it me, or is the faron versus sailaway spat redundant and frankly, childish and silly? What does Michael Hunt think about this? Paging Mike Hunt, your opinion is valued.
************
Faron and Sail Away is our version of the Itchy and Scratchy Show.
Yes I believe he was referring to Porkys.
“Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house? ”
Why not ? If my portfolio has to suffer then why not house prices. In 1982 prices dropped 40% and those who overleveraged learned a hard lesson and hundreds of thousands got a chance to own when they thought they would ever see it.
It happened in the US 12 years ago but Harper bailed out the banks to prevent a proper cleansing of excessive debt. Now it’s going to be worse for those with too many toys on cheap credit. Whose fault is that?
Canadian house prices did not fall 40%. The US correction was 32%. – Garth
DELETED (Anti-vaccine nutbar)
Supermarkets seek to safeguard supply as Scott’s Refrigerated Logistics goes under with loss of 1,500 jobs
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-06/supermarkets-safeguard-supply-scotts-collapse-job-losses/102057278
….”Small to medium retailers will be impacted the most, including farmers, many of whom have products ready to be picked up by Scott’s and transported around the country.
“One of the customers said we have 5,000 pallets of fresh watermelons in Bundaberg that were going to be taken by Scott’s in the week ahead. We won’t be able to produce that,” Mr Langdon said.
KordaMentha predicts the areas hardest hit will be in Far North Queensland, the Mildura region in Victoria, the Riverina in NSW, and Renmark in South Australia.
Mr Langdon said KordaMentha was doing what it could to facilitate new employment for staff.
‘Rippling effect’
The Transport Workers Union said the news had come as a shock but was not a surprise.
“It’s very hard for [Scott’s employees] to comprehend how companies like Aldi can make millions of dollars worth of profit, yet their company that is servicing that company has actually gone broke,” state secretary Richard Olsen said.
Driver shortage for trucking companies
A shortage of workers is exposing deep-set issues within the road transport industry, with regional Victorian trucking bosses describing mounting issues over safety and properly trained drivers.
He said the union was working with all companies that had expressed a recent shortage of drivers to find employment options for those now in need.
“We think there are quite a number of jobs available,” Mr Olsen said.
He said with mortgage stress and the cost of living rising, many would be feeling the impacts.
Mr Olsen warned there would also be a “rippling effect” that might cause some disruption to supply across Australia.
“Plenty of companies have been contracting to Scott’s that may well be out of jobs and therefore further employees or other transport workers would find themselves out of work,” he said.
“It would not be unreasonable to think that there’s more to follow as a result of Scott’s folding but hopefully it will be minimal.”
The union is calling on the government to act urgently on transport industry reforms before them.
===========================
COMMENT:
It appears this is a canary- in -the -mine re: the economy , supply line disruptions,….. and the ever expanding collateral damage.
#107 SAM on 03.09.23 at 7:15 pm
—-
A friend w/ an investment property as well is holding on even though it turned into cashflow negative (she has a VRM), because she believes rates will go down. I think the investors that will ride it out as long as they can…until they can’t (or reality hits that it isn’t a good investment). BC has > 30% of condos held by investors; I would think they have the minimal amounts down. When investment properties start the price descent, the rest of the property types will follow.
#115 Adolf
COMMENT:
It appears this is a canary- in -the -mine re: the economy , supply line disruptions,….. and the ever expanding collateral damage.
——————————-
No canary.
Just wishful thinking by a perma doomer.
Europe (Germany) just came through the “mother of supply line disruptions”.
The world is now to inter-connected to be held hostage by one country or some special interest groups.
And btw, the article is about Australia.
I just noticed that the price of milk and cheese products has not risen noticeably in the last few months.
Same with chicken and pork.
No expert.
But could that be because Canada has the infamous Marketing Boards.
#111 Sail Away on 03.09.23 at 7:33 pm
#106 Really? Not! on 03.09.23 at 7:05 pm
immediately and violently punished.
—
TF is wrong with you? Added to the catalogue.
@#94 Alois
“Amazon driver shares viral TikTok of the company’s AI system that tracks her movements”
+++
Yep.
A friend has been a long haul trucker for almost 45 years.
Huge shortage of truckers …so he’s making big coin.
Loves to drive. He’s been all over Canada and the US.
He’s quitting.
Selling his rig.
New management has insisted of the new “overwatch system”.
If the engine runs longer than 8 hours you have to shut down or answer a call from the 24/7 dispatch(security) company to explain why you are still “driving” after 8 hours.
“I’m not driving ….I’m stuck in traffic and cant get to my hotel.”
“You have to stop…you have exceeded your 8 hours.”
His question to his manager,
” If I pull over because of a snow storm and leave my rig running for heat or to watch tv….is that considered driving?”
“Yes”.
Non driving computer geeks that set up the system have no clue as to the day to day life of a truck driver.
The endless texts and calls from the Overwatch system drove him nuts.
He’s done.
He has acreage, a nice house, a huge shop, lots of hobbies, …done with the bs.
Most of his driving friends are complaining of the same thing.
I suspect that there will be a shortage of drivers for a long long time and the amount of barely skilled, new drivers….will result in an increase in major accidents.
https://globalnews.ca/video/9484729/more-calls-for-tougher-penalties-for-truckers-who-damage-infrastructure
Sam I used to knock 5 year GICs but if someone can be a good to an aggressive saver and use up their maximum RRSP, TFSA and other tax advantage accounts, it will not be hard to accumulate $1 million as the same time it takes for most 25 year mortgage amortizations. $1,500 a month+RRSP refund $500 a month in a TFSA is all it takes.
#109 Oakville Rocks! on 03.09.23 at 7:25 pm
@ #11 The Jaquar
That’s a bingo! And thanks for the reminder of Garth’s December post.
Insanely, the $$$ amount zorched into Tesla from 2022, $15.4 billion, was 3x greater than the previous two years combined. That number is on the verge of being eclipsed already in 2023, just 1/4 into the year. Currently at $14 billion. This is a perfect example of gambling addicts chasing losses and throwing good money after bad. Our prime Tesla pumping commenter has a lot of buys at levels much higher than today’s price.
At a bare minimum the stock is a bubble. Much more likely an insider rug-pull in the making (Tesla insiders have been selling this week).
We’ll see if this is the week that brings the stock back to earth somewhat. It’s a far far smaller car manu than any of the majors and has zero to minimal moat and a rapidly declining brand favourability. Toyota has a market cap about 1/3 of Tesla’s. That would be a good starting target. 1/3 of $170 is $57 bucks.
Of course, there will be ferocious bounces. If you are a gambling sort, play them when Tesla gets deep oversold (daily RSI in the 20s) and wait for the SAGI to go back short. He can’t not emit them. It’s like a law of nature.
Out of the Big Smoke
Thought I’d repost this comment, was hoping to see what others thought:
A little info in case you want to understand housing in Canada. House prices in Canada cannot come down as much as they did in the USA (a few years back). Accept it. Houses in Canada are simply not used for housing anymore. Those who want a house to live in and can afford it, have already bought. Houses are now a commodity. They are an investment. (It would be silly to buy a million dollar asset and park your behind in it) You buy it and rent it out or sell it for capital gains. That’s it… no more, no less.
here’s what I think
there is an investing component in housing. Even if the owner lives in the unit, he figures he will gain as the price goes up. Let’s take the rare case where the unit is 100% investment. This is a catastrophe when the price of housing goes down. There’s the sunk cost of buying: down payment, commission, legal fees and taxes. Then there’s mortgage payments, insurance and maintenance. Subtract rent. The fact that interest rates are going up means mortgage payments go up. Depending on the terms of the mortgage. A lot of housing is cash-flow negative. I’ve heard somewhere there’s a lot of “investors” who have bought condos in the GTA. A lot of them are cash-flow negative. They need to sell but they’re waiting for the market to pick up. Well we are just about at the point where they cannot wait any more. I suspect the ones who can afford a loss have already sold. They’re saying “that’s a $100,000 I won’t see again.” I suspect that most cannot afford a loss. Long story short, high ratio of investment means that house prices fall faster and harder.
Canadian house prices did not fall 40%. The US correction was 32%. – Garth
Sorry, should have specified. Victoria tanked 42% in 82. In 2008 Arizona and other hot spots tanked similar or worse.
Renting, for sure, has its ups and downs.
I try to find something positive everyday about renting.
Today I’m grateful that Tiger Woods is not my landlord…
M48BC
/////////////////////////////////////////////
“It’s legal, there’s just no precedent’: the first US town to demand a rent decrease.
In Kingston, New York, tenants say their survival depends on the city ordering a rent reduction – something that’s never been done before.
Mayor Steve Noble says the situation is untenable. “We are a close-knit community, and housing is a right people should have access to. But I can’t have an apartment that cost $1,000 three years ago cost $2,250 today, when I know I haven’t raised taxes in seven years in this city.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/07/new-york-housing-rent-costs-kingston-tenants
Renting has its ups and downs.
I try to find something positive everyday about renting.
Today I’m grateful that Tiger Woods is not my landlord…
M48BC
/////////////////////////////////////////////
“It’s legal, there’s just no precedent’: the first US town to demand a rent decrease.
In Kingston, New York, tenants say their survival depends on the city ordering a rent reduction – something that’s never been done before.
Mayor Steve Noble says the situation is untenable. “We are a close-knit community, and housing is a right people should have access to. But I can’t have an apartment that cost $1,000 three years ago cost $2,250 today, when I know I haven’t raised taxes in seven years in this city.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/07/new-york-housing-rent-costs-kingston-tenants
Who is Jaq”? Maybe a nickname for somebody named Jacque? Here is the Laurentian E___ reference for parties who don’t pay attention or have low comprehension:
‘There is no ‘Laurentian Elite’. Not to be used again on the blog. – Garth’, from #5 Dogman01 on 03.02.23 at 2:19 pm, Down, and up. March 2nd, 2023.
Suggest you don’t get too wound up on the reference, because if there were such an entity you would never be offered membership based on clues you leave here.
There’s a world of difference between discussing Tesla stock as a financial investment asset, the merits of embracing green energy solutions and showing admiration for a man (Musk) whose accomplishments are stellar. Constantly trying to ‘bait’ a specific poster day in and day out with angry commentary that borders on ‘unhinged’has nothing to do with those discussions. Like that old piece of advice to ” Stop beating a dead horse” it fades for a day or two, but the relapse is so predictable. One cannot even count the number of times or individuals who have commented on the behaviour.
Ask yourself also why would anyone seek to be seen as ‘credible’ in the eyes of someone for whom they have zero respect?
Here’s another thing I saw the other day, but have yet to work it into a post.
I’ll just do what a naughty dog does, and dump it into the corner…
M48BC
“When those surveyed described their current living
situation, Canada had the highest amount of
younger people who already owned a home with a
mortgage, with 32% of 18-24-year-olds. 40% of 25-34
year-olds and 41% of 35-44-year-olds saying they had
a house with a home loan.
In America these proportions were much lower, with just 25% of those
aged 18-34, and 23% of 35-44-year-olds having a
mortgage.
Interestingly, in Australia those 18-24 with a
mortgage were the lowest of all three nations at
17%, but this figure jumped up to 43% of 25-34-year-
olds and 53% of those aged 35-44.”
#117 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.23 at 8:27 pm
================================
Huh?
Where did I say it was NOT Australia…???
Gee Mr PP…I was gonna send out a search party…we miss your “grasp -of- the- obvious” comments…
……now have the nurse take off your bib
…….wheel you back to your room
….tuck you in….
…(and pssst…change your diaper.)
An explosive phreatic volcanic eruption in the Aleutian Islands in the near future affecting jet travel ?
Stay tuned.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-KIShboZ-s
@
#32 Sail Away on 03.09.23 at 1:50 pm
#11 the Jaguar on 03.09.23 at 12:14 pm
Garth: Special request::: Can you please add the word TESLA and Elon Musk to the same list of ‘banned phrases or words’?
We all know the hysteric just harps away on these issues to try and bait Sail Away.
———
Oh, it’s fine. Ever since Garth put Wile E on notice that raging at, degrading and insulting other commenters will result in deplatforming, his rhetoric stayed the same but is now directed at Elon as proxy.
Sort of funny. Old man yells at cloud. A Friday chuckle.
++++++++++++++++++++
you three could do everyone a favour and find another comments section to act like children in.
or
you could just not engage with one another.
Probably be better if you just disappeared though.
@#124 Victoria
” Victoria tanked 42% in 82. ”
+++
Yep.
I remember renting a house in in Burnaby in 1982 that was “worth” 240k ( thats what the landlord paid to buy it in 1980).
In 1984 it sold for 120k.
A year later….as the recession got worse……unsold businesses , unfinished housing, etc…mysteriously ….burned.
@#126 Flop
Verrry interesting article.
A “rent strike” but this time its forced by the local municipal govt……
One wonders when the federal politicians will realize….REITS are ruthless…
jess That was a huge oversight… Sergey Magnitsky, who uncovered a massive fraud and later died in a Russian jail cell. Companies used to embezzle the fraud money were tied to Zarrab’s Bella Investments.
Freezing Order, Bill Browder: “When Browder’s young Russian lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky, was beaten to death in a Moscow jail in 2009, Browder cast aside his business career and made it his life’s mission to pursue justice for Sergei.”
suffered and died under Vladimir Putin
#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.23 at 9:02 pm
@#94 Alois
“Amazon driver shares viral TikTok of the company’s AI system that tracks her movements”
+++
Yep.
A friend has been a long haul trucker for almost 45 years.
Huge shortage of truckers …so he’s making big coin.
Loves to drive. He’s been all over Canada and the US.
He’s quitting.
Selling his rig.
etc. etc.
=======================
COMMENT:
Yeah….
I think the ” elephant in the room” re: the economy is that while some economists use job openings as a “positive “indicator..is that perhaps the converse is true.
If those jobs aren’t filled in a timely manner…the businesses viability is increasingly compromised, and may ultimately they fold…adding to the flu$$$h of the economy.
I’ve noticed many restaurants only open for breakfast and lunch…NO dinner
………OR just open for dinner.
Is this due to labour shortage?
IMHO many potential employees are wary of possible mandates ,lockdowns etc. and don’t want to go through that hassle again.
We were on BC Ferries and saw an older employee showing the ropes to (3) young newbies….never seen this before. Good paying union jobs go begging…
===============
ALSO:
Saw an intriguing video about how small US cattle ranchers are getting squeezed out by the Big 6 US meat packing firms….post on this and the impacts soon.
“Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house?”
Judging by the demographic on this blog, most people here already own one, and it wouldn’t shock me if the average blog dog has something like 1.2 houses (I’m happy with my one- tried the landlord thing once a few years ago, never again. Better uses for spare capital, with less risk and fewer plumbing calls). The vast majority of the GF faithful are good humans that want a strong, productive economy and opportunities for the next generation. Most folks in the steerage section just want to see an end to inflation (but don’t agree with T-Mack that the end is in sight and his work is near done), and the de-financialization of housing. If you’re a farmer, you want high food prices. An apparel company, high clothing costs. In pharmaceuticals, high drug costs. But for the health of society, it’s best if food, clothing, health care, and shelter are dirt cheap. Isn’t that the mark of a truly affluent and wealthy society- one where everyone can afford to eat, have shelter, and be healthy, for a paltry percentage of the GDP? In my mind it is. In addition to the peace, security, and dignity of it’s people, a nation’s success can in large part be judged by how little, or how much, of it’s capital is required to provide for these things. If you can provide the necessities with a pittance of the overall purse, you’re doing mighty fine indeed. If your people need to dedicate a large portion, or all, of the fruits of their labor towards basic necessities, we’re not making progress. We’re becoming less efficient, less productive. The irony is that all our technology was supposed to make us more efficient. Since it obviously hasn’t (and there’s no question that somethings have become much more efficient overall, but I will die on the hill that the only true judge of efficiency/productivity is the excess goods and services it produces, and in this regards, we are not producing an excess given that people cannot afford basic needs, therefore, by my definition we are less efficient/productive overall), one has to seriously question the value of all this tech. Good for speed of business communication, robotics good, everything else…meh, think we achieved peak tech on the rest of it once diesel engines and hydraulics were invented.
I’ve said it before on this blog: In the 50’s and 60’s, grandpa and grandma raised three kids in a semi with two cars in the drive and an annual vacation on a truck-driver income, and semi retired at 55. By the time the 80s and 90s rolled by, both parents worked, one in a decently skilled job, until 65, to afford the same. In the 2020s? Unless the family ponies up the cash, there’s no house to be had in ON or BC, even with two professionals working full time, and no one is retiring. Not so outside those two nutter provinces, but that’s half the country. So we’ve gone backwards in terms of the amount of labor required to provide the basic necessities of life. If you could trade 2500 hours a year of low to mid skilled labor per year for food shelter and clothing in 1950, and 5000 hours per year of highly-educated, skilled labor don’t buy those same things in 2022, we’ve gone off course. Now, we’ve largely done this to ourselves because of our voting tendencies. Keep checking the box next to the pretty haired kid with the sugary words that promises ponies for everyone, instead of the surly, grumpy, cantankerous old guy who tells you to pull up your bootstraps and calls it like it is and can make trains run on time. Ever been in charge of tens of millions of dollar in annual revenue and expenses, a hundred mill or so in assets, and the health and safety of a couple hundred employees? I have, and it’s miserable damn work (deeply rewarding on a masochistic level, but miserable). Constant stress, worry, the weight of knowing that every decision carries heavy consequences both financially and personally to the people that work for you and their loved ones. To do it right, you need to sacrifice yourself, make uncomfortable and often unpopular choices, and be constantly working harder than the people under you and your competitors. Now, multiply that by 100,000 and you have the job of prime minister and his cabinet. Do you really want the happy go lucky, budgets balance themselves folks in charge, or the miserable antisocial a-hole who knows the weight of the job and what it takes to make a country work? I’ll take the guy who cusses at me and tells me there’s no free lunch every time over the guy who smiles and gets nothing done.
It’s late and I digress, and I have officially turned into my father. Move to the prairies, kids, but leave your politics behind you, please. And for the love of god stop voting for free ponies.
Felix, wasn’t it you I saw at last night’s Black Cats Matter demonstration?
===================================
#8 Felix on 03.09.23 at 12:08 pm
This could be a mere swinging of a smelly, deceased feline.
?????????????????????????????????????
STOP THE ANTI-FELINE RACISM!
Meanwhile, dogawful mutts continue to ruin life for downtown dwellers in Toronto, causing massive conflicts between residents there:
https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2023/03/08/howls-of-outrage-over-citys-no-barking-sign-at-toronto-dog-park-bring-action.html
#135 Adolf
Saw an intriguing video about how small US cattle ranchers are getting squeezed out by the Big 6 US meat packing firms….post on this and the impacts soon.
—————————
Did you just wake up from your afternoon nappy.
And watched an “intriguing” video how small farmers are being squeezed out by big Corporations.
That video probably was so old that it was in black and white and the “farmers” were still using horses and a plow.
#127 the Jaguar on 03.09.23 at 9:51 pm
Oakville Rocks! went right over your head there.
I’ll ELY5:
Tesla and TSLA stock are companies and securities respectively. This is an investing blog and those two things are in the broad scope of personal finance. Garth strongly recommends against people gambling with single stocks for obvious reasons, not the least of which is the 8% flesh-wound someone who “invested” in TSLA when Sail Away crowed about it would be suffering.
The Laurentian Elite is not a thing. Or, it’s a cobbled together idea that today’s Canadian conservatives use to hitch their populist wagon to the larger, louder and stupider one down in the States. The Laurentian Elite has nothing to do with personal finance. It can’t. It doesn’t exist. Garth only mentions it to mock those who claim it has some mythical power. Crying about the “elites” is also a paean to antisemitism, but that’s my view, not Garth’s (I think).
Just catching up on the blog as I have been in Denmark for the last week visiting the grandkids. Cold and very expensive. We had a small blizzard one night and hubby said “This s**t is why I left Canada”. Good for losing a few pounds in weight as you literally can’t afford to eat and without a bike have to walk everywhere from the Go trains.
The fabled elephant in the room is the millions of people who rent and have little or no pension reserves. Sooner or later they are too old to work and then what happens. Their govt pension and OAS is $32,000 and their rent is $24,000. It is crucial that you own a fully paid house before you retire or the numbers just don’t work. State pensions are literally based on you having no major debts and a fully paid home.
Govts will have to get involved to bail these folks out and the numbers will be staggering. We are now just seeing the tip of the iceberg.
Economy did not crash in Japan with house prices diving by 70 % + in the bit cities.
Implying that a larger decline of house prices here will crush the economy is either fearmongering or a statement that we have no economy outside of housing (most likely)
Fueling further inflation in order to subsidize credit junkies and provide further profits to the banks is not a good idea. There is not much else left to loot.
CB is in the business of price stability and should do it’s job. If they are incompetent, fire them.
Falling house values will not crash the economy. Other way around. – Garth
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/loonie-hits-four-month-low-as-bank-of-canada-holds-key-interest-rate-1.1892899?utm_campaign=trueAnthem+Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook
Political nonsense such as the above should and must be called out. Shenfeld says, just don’t go to Florida or spend on groceries and no problem? It’s insane . Inflation is raging, a collapse in currency is abusive.
Is that what really we want? To trash the economy so you can afford a house?
Yes. But it’s so much more than just a house. Let’s put the brakes on this debt fueled way of life and quit kicking the can down the road. Modern monetary policy needs to end for good. Sure it will take time to play out through the system, but higher rates is where it needs to start. But it’s for the best… for our children’s children.
@#135 Alois
“We were on BC Ferries and saw an older employee showing the ropes to (3) young newbies….never seen this before. Good paying union jobs go begging…”
++++
Yep.
Saw a BC Ferries traffic person (older guy) getting the lines ready to start boarding.
The BC Ferries new kid walked up holding a coffee in his hand.
Old guy points at his coffee and says something.
New kid shrugs and takes another drink.
Old guy walks back to the head of the lines and starts directing traffic.
BC Ferries has a huge turn over rate on new hires….something seriously wrong there.
Two office workers for every ship worker.
Another bloated, govt bureaucracy
It wont improve under an NDP govt.
Especially when the obscene salary, top management positions seem to be a “musical chair” for all the top NDP lickspittles
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ferries-commissioner-report-1.6773518
I can only assume that “Faron” and “Sailaway” have some big bucks under management by our gracious host. Since he can’t say it, I’ll do it for him.
You two contribute absolutely nothing of value by your immature comments. Grow up and if you don’t have anything nice or relevant to the article to say, don’t say anything at all.
How hard is that?!?!?!?
The steerage section typifies what is wrong with this country. The obsession with real estate is blinding. We have a PM who was well aware of foreign interference in federal elections and then lies about it, is caught lying and still, no big deal. All because we focus on the price of a house in Milton.
Call me crazy, but I’m fairly certain that if the CCP funded Conservative candidates instead of Liberal candidates our glorious leader would have been crowing about it in a non-stop playback loop. And the CBC would have been amplifying the crowing.
But he isn’t. And the CBC isn’t. Not a peep. Dogs not barking.
And we obsess about real estate???? We have a PM who should have been run out of town on a rail for several scandals already and all he does is smirk, shrug instruct his press -puppies to give the public an insincere sorry-not-sorry half apology and all is forgotten.
But at least he knows what pronouns to use when he addresses the Canadian people-kind. We’re thankful for that.
Here we go,
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/other/the-implosion-of-2-california-lenders-has-investors-worried-worse-is-to-come-there-might-be-some-kind-of-crack-in-the-financial-system/ar-AA18sBLM?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=2e5d4f0c201647a6bb7a45c5f9e22cbe&ei=8
Starship launches later this month.
The largest rocket to ever reach orbit AND
it will return safely to earth to its launch pad.
Amazing technology.
Elon deserves two Nobel prizes.
One for saving the planet from “dumb” polluting ICE cars.
Another for getting humanity to the stars…
He’s a saint.
St Elon of Musk….has a nice ring to it.
Passed by No Frills to pick up some of that $4.44lb butter.
Was greated by whole watermelon at the entrance. WOW! March 10th, whole watermelon in Canada at $6.99ea. Tell me we don’t live in a wonderful place. Label says it’s from Brazil. AMAZING! It’s $18.99 to $24.99 everywhere else.
I giggle with excitement as I start to choose my melon. That’s right, I’m picky. I feel. I slap.
Produce guy is next to me refiling other fruit. I express my amazement “Amazing deal for whole watermelon.” Then I ask “Have you by chance tried these already?”
To which the nice young produce guy replies “I can’t afford $7 watermelon.”
And that boys and girls is the reality from the field, at ground level.
What are the chances of a 100 basis point increase now, since the small increases are doing nothing against inflation. Rather than save face Powell will have to save the system and start implementing the Volker style rate hikes that were done in the eighties, he can not afford to lose credibility.
I believe a soft landing is off the table now and we get to witness what we have not seen in in forty years which will be a hard crash because that is what it will take to stop inflation now as it is getting entrenched.
As for real estate not falling as our host has stated, it will fall because who can afford a seven figure mortgage at double digit interest rates and how could you qualify for one.
Momentum on rates down has changed to momentum on rates up, it is now to determine the speed and size of the rate hikes.
There will be no ‘hard crash’ when the labour market is at full tilt, household savings are rising and the supply chain issues being resolved. A recession is always possible (and likely) but no disaster looms. – Garth
Forgot to attach.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-still-surging-jobs-report-050331245.html
@#149 Reality
“Was greated by whole watermelon at the entrance. WOW! March 10th, whole watermelon in Canada at $6.99ea. ”
+++
Careful.
You may start a riot.
https://fedfedfed.com/sliced/dangerous-history-of-the-watermelon
I imagine you are fielding some phone calls today. Folks, the long bond and a bit of bullion won’t kill you.
Reacting to short-term events might, however. Stay the course. – Garth
@#145 Interesting on 03.10.23 at 8:28 am
I can only assume that “Faron” and “Sailaway” have some big bucks under management by our gracious host. Since he can’t say it, I’ll do it for him. You two contribute absolutely nothing of value by your immature comments. Grow up and if you don’t have anything nice or relevant to the article to say, don’t say anything at all. How hard is that?!?!?!? +++
My guess is that neither one has investments under management but given Garth has no issue with post 139 mentioning Laurentian E___ it does seem to confirm that some posters are Teflon. Sail Away contributes significantly, but Faron is just poison. I didn’t even mention his name in my post#11, but I will now. It says something that his abuse is tolerated. Billy Bob was right as was DonG.
More evidence that the “news” media is just a giant Rorschach test:
https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1634192576634064896
It is important to understand that “news” organizations do not actually report the news, and any facts that are accidentally reported are incidental. They report what their market segment wants to hear. If they report anything that contradicts what their viewers want to hear, they lose viewers and thus revenue. Too much truth would be existential. They’d go out of business.
And you do your part by listening to only the news you want to hear. We all do it.
So remember how it works: People draw their conclusions first, based on what they “know” in their hearts, and look for collaborating evidence later, if they bother to look at all.
You perfectly described Fox News. Thank you. – Garth
#148 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.23 at 9:23 am
Starship launches later this month.
The largest rocket to ever reach orbit AND
it will return safely to earth to its launch pad.
Amazing technology.
Elon deserves two Nobel prizes.
One for saving the planet from “dumb” polluting ICE cars.
Another for getting humanity to the stars…
He’s a saint.
St Elon of Musk….has a nice ring to it.
—————
I’ll second the motion. A third Nobel for fearlessly exposing the shocking government censorship via Twitter Files.
#90 Dolce Vita on 03.09.23 at 5:16 pm
Oh, and I know I screwed up the last number after the fact but I was assuming people rational enough to realize that near 50% is stretching the imagination on price drops at present.
//////////////
Dolce we are so proud of the progress you are making and admitting to your mistakes.
Keep it up.
DELETED (Fearmonger)
There will be no ‘hard crash’ when the labour market is at full tilt, household savings are rising and the supply chain issues being resolved. A recession is always possible (and likely) but no disaster looms. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
CTV news ran a whole segment last night devoted to how Canadians are pooched and racking up debt to try to make ends meet. I don’t see how both statements can be true; rising household savings and rising debt. Which is it??
We are not homogenous. Most people are coping. There is no crash coming. – Garth
145 Interesting on 03.10.23 at 8:28 am
I can only assume that “Faron” and “Sailaway” have some big bucks under management by our gracious host. Since he can’t say it, I’ll do it for him.
You two contribute absolutely nothing of value by your immature comments. Grow up and if you don’t have anything nice or relevant to the article to say, don’t say anything at all.
How hard is that?!?!?!?
————————-
Did you not read #139 by Faron?
Nice and relevant post, I’d say.
#145 Interesting on 03.10.23 at 8:28 am
I can only assume that “Faron” and “Sailaway” have some big bucks under management by our gracious host.
—————
The Turner approach doesn’t work for the Sail Away situation as Canadian ETFs are classified as Passive Foreign Investment Companies by the US IRS, and in a nonreg account come with a laundry list of US reporting/taxation requirements.
Thus, by such rules, we dual citizen investors must wade through the shark-infested Canadian individual stocks or choose US holdings.
Further, though: we do have relatives with the Turner group and frequently recommend his firm to others. Their approach is good. Not all advisors are good, unfortunately, so when you find one, stay.
And enjoy the blog :-)
149 Reality Bites on 03.10.23 at 9:23 am
Passed by No Frills to pick up some of that $4.44lb butter.
Was greated by whole watermelon at the entrance. WOW! March 10th, whole watermelon in Canada at $6.99ea. Tell me we don’t live in a wonderful place. Label says it’s from Brazil. AMAZING! It’s $18.99 to $24.99 everywhere else.
I giggle with excitement as I start to choose my melon. That’s right, I’m picky. I feel. I slap.
Produce guy is next to me refiling other fruit. I express my amazement “Amazing deal for whole watermelon.” Then I ask “Have you by chance tried these already?”
To which the nice young produce guy replies “I can’t afford $7 watermelon.”
And that boys and girls is the reality from the field, at ground level.
—————————-
Better eat it before it explodes.
Probably full of chemical fertilizers.
SVIB is shut down, Credit Suisse delaying annual report after a call from the SEC, damage control, perhaps stopping a banking run or fear of contagion in the financial system.
Interesting times.
#154 the Jaguar on 03.10.23 at 10:10
My guess is that neither one has investments under management but given Garth has no issue with post 139 mentioning Laurentian E___ it does seem to confirm that some posters are Teflon. Sail Away contributes significantly, but Faron is just poison. I didn’t even mention his name in my post#11, but I will now. It says something that his abuse is tolerated. Billy Bob was right as was DonG.
—————
Thanks Jag! And likewise.
It’s the pig wrestling conundrum: mere association and the fact one’s good name is constantly smeared creates the link.
And nobody wants to see that. The steerage irritation makes sense.
The Turner approach doesn’t work for the Sail Away situation as Canadian ETFs are classified as Passive
#161 Sailo
Foreign Investment Companies by the US IRS, and in a nonreg account come with a laundry list of US reporting/taxation requirements.
Thus, by such rules, we dual citizen investors must wade through the shark-infested Canadian individual stocks or choose US holdings.
————————-
Poor Sailo.
Beholden to the IRS for life.
What price Freedom?
#154 the Jaguar on 03.10.23 at 10:10 am
Sail Away contributes significantly, but Faron is just poison.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
LMAO! You would say that.
#20 Dogman01
Being in a position where you have freedom and autonomy is the goal.
————————————————————————————————————
Yes.
In the technical jargon of the financial industry, it’s called:
EFFYOO money.
Nothing beats the look on the faces of the psychopaths running corporations as their heads explode when you tell them you’re OUTTA here!
Their realization that you have effyoo money and can tell them “eff you” turns their narcissistic soulless existence upside down. They suddenly realize that they are the true slaves while you are the master – of your own destiny.
Listen to Garth kiddos – work hard early in life while saving and investing diligently! Don’t blow your stash. Avoid debt. Once you find your purpose, then you too can tell the psychpathic narcissistic corporate twats: eff you.
Freedom reigns.
Everything else is just gibberish.
#167 Dharma Bum on 03.10.23 at 11:15 am
The look on the faces of your co-workers when they realize you were not bluffing and that driving 10 year old vehicles while that got a new Benz had a point…
Watch the series “Severance” – No such thing as work-life balance if you are a competent male in your mid 40’s. They know most of you got kids, family, mortgage car payments….”bills no honest man can pay!”
#146 Dogs Not Barking on 03.10.23 at 8:46 am
The Dogman – candidate for “Special Rapporteur”
Great article by a great Journalist on Canada’s Conservative Party and China:
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/beijing-simply-could-not-abide-erin-otooles-tough-on-china-policies
There are serious shenanigans going on in Canada.
CPC — hmmmmm
Conservative Party of Canada
Communist Party of China
Those of us of suspicious mindset see a pattern here…. here….
#154 the Jaguar on 03.10.23 at 10:10 am
Sail Away contributes significantly, but Faron is just poison.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
LMAO! You would say that.
—————————————————————
I would also say that
#160 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.23 at 10:54 am
145 Interesting on 03.10.23 at 8:28 am
Thanks Ponz!
—
#166 Observer on 03.10.23 at 11:10 am
#154 the Jaguar on 03.10.23 at 10:10 am
Thanks Observer!
Some poisons are effective at fighting cancer. They wipe out the rapidly multiplying malignant cells while allowing the slower metabolizing non-cancerous cells to persevere. The patient loses their hair (the least of the horrors) but survives.
Also, Garth’s point about the Laurentian Elite is that he doesn’t want people burbling conspiracy theories about it. Because, again, it’s a populist fabrication. The words themselves are permissible and not part of any RegEx filter AFAICT.
No AUM with Garth. Should probably change that just to compensate for all of his time here.
#104 ‘Jess’ – there is a fairly well known term called ‘pink tax’ which refers to the premium paid by females when purchasing products. In general, women are charged more for clothing, haircuts or various services than men are. What your post describes is a variation on the theme, which I call the ‘poor tax’. Not only do those on the lower end of the economic scale suffer from inflated prices for basics such as food or shelter, because a great proportion of their limited financial resources are required but when it comes to financial services, those on the lower end of the economic scale are often unable to take advantage of deals offered to wealthier clients. Loans often cost more; wealthier clients may be offered lower service fees as an incentive to keep their accounts with that bank etc. Hence the existence of organizations offering ‘micro’ loans to help those who otherwise would be unable to get financing to start a business etc. While those mainly exist in 3rd world countries, the fact remains that there are plenty of folks in first world countries who would benefit from being able to access those self same services too.
#107 Sam on 03.09.23 at 7:15 pm
It is already happening. My brother-in-law has 3 properties bought with my sister 7 years ago and now has to sell 1 property at a total 41% loss which includes the real estate commission, all other closing costs. My brother-in-law is an accountant for 14 years now ironically as all the rental income loss, property price reductions, other expenses with this house, $250,000 gone. My parents were not financial smart people but they just had GICs which they never lost $250,000 in 7 years. Sometimes following the herd is a disaster.
——————————————–
Where did they buy 7 years ago that they are now way underwater? Literally every market I’m aware of, that would still be in the black, significantly + rental income realized.
#138 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.09.23 at 11:49 pm
=====================
Owe WIze wOne
You still haven’t answered a previous question re: Gilligan’s Island….
…..you need to focus
fdic shut it down contagion
The four biggest U.S. banks lost $52 billion of market value Thursday, part of a broad rout across financial stocks.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-03-09-2023/card/four-biggest-u-s-banks-lose-47-billion-in-market-value-8fmAmiqs4PDb1F60OSFg?mod=article_inline
https://fortune.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-fire-sale-fail-capital-raise-bank-run-svb-panic/
#165 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.10.23 at 11:10 am
Poor Sailo.
Beholden to the IRS for life.
What price Freedom?
——–
A bigger issue is that when the Devil went down to Georgia, he ran into me before Johnny.
Let’s just say I didn’t win that shiny fiddle made of gold.
and garth says banks wont fail…lol RIP $SVB
I said no systemically-important Canadian bank would fail. That remains the case. Surely you know the difference. – Garth
The western world has created a Frankenstein of the entire financial system. Like a juggler with one too many balls in motion, while he rides a unicycle with a flat tire. The crowd oooo’s and aaaaaahhh’s as he careens back and forth on the stage. What will be the black swan event, which sends the snowball rolling down the mountain, getting bigger and bigger, over the cliff? SVB? While spoofing precious metals traders get slapped on their manicured, girly hands for years of spoofing. 3 piece suited criminals rule the roost on this marble we call planet earth. Nothing to see here, NOT!
Explain ‘criminals’. – Garth
Canada on Friday banned the import of all Russian aluminum and steel products in a move that Ottawa said was aimed at denying Moscow the ability to fund its war against Ukraine.
fintech
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/vcs-urge-startups-to-withdraw-funds-from-silicon-valley-bank.html
I need to find a way to earn USD from this side of the border… geez. Our dollar will be on the wrong side of 70 cents soon.
#178 Really? Not! on 03.10.23 at 1:49 pm
While spoofing precious metals traders get slapped on their manicured, girly hands for years of spoofing
—
Why do you change your identity while continuing to comment about the same topics?
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