In traipsing about the Dark Side yesterday, this blog mentioned how the big boys are dealing with mortgage rate stress. The bankers have been busy running up amortizations.
Whazzat mean?
So, a third (roughly) of all the outstanding residential mortgages were taken out by people who wanted variable rates, usually because they were cheaper than locking in for five years. Over decades, this has been a winning strategy. But not now.
As the Bank of Canada hiked its benchmark rate eight times, a VRM went from a low of 1.5% to the current 6.5%. Big ouch. Most of these borrowers have floating rates, but fixed payments. As the cost of their borrowing increased, more and more of the monthly went to interest until a ‘trigger point’ was reached – when 100% of the payment was thus. No debt being paid. And that’s not kosher with an amortized loan.
In many instances, interest charges have surpassed the fixed monthly, so the actual debt is expanding, not contracting. Every day home equity decreases – something that’s been exacerbated as the real estate market in general (and especially in Bunnypatch) faded away.
Lenders don’t want foreclosures, jingle mail, powers of sale or to be in the business of owning houses. So, one solution to this mess has been to extend amortizations for these afflicted clients. By adding five or ten years to the period of time over which payments (debt plus interest) are calculated, the interest portion of the monthly is reduced and the loans come onside.
It’s incredible, but with the bank we mentioned yesterday – the penguin one – variable-rate clients with ams over 35 years now constitute 27% of the book. A year ago it was 0%.
What is the outcome?
The homeowners get to keep the real estate and their monthly payments do not increase. However the size of the debt can augment, and over time interest charges escalate. When it comes to renew the loan, they’ll see that years of payments may not have reduced their debt, while the home itself is worth less. Net worth shrinks. It would have made more sense, in other words, to rent – especially when closing and selling costs are taken into consideration. In fact, in a market where valuations have dropped the homeowner may be unable to sell without having to cut a big cheque to the lender on closing day. Hello Milton. Hiya Brampton.
Here’s a small example of what stretching amortization can do. On a half-million-dollar loan at 5.25%, going from 25 to 30 years reduces the monthly by about two hundred bucks. But over the life of the loan, interest charges rise by almost a hundred thousand.
The fervent hope of the current triggered VRM people is that interest rates start heading back down a little in 2024, allowing them to get back onto that 25-year schedule. But is that likely, for some of the reasons outlined on this pathetic blog 24 hours ago? Maybe not. Perhaps we have hit a new normal for mortgages with a bank prime rate stuck north of 6.5%.
Here’s the big worry. ARMs equal, as mentioned, about a third of all Canadian mortgages. In the States (where they learned this lesson 15 years ago) only 5% of home loans are at floating rates. This leaves us massively more exposed to the rate-tightening of central banks. Meanwhile, Canadians have been far house hornier than Americans, with real estate at nosebleed price-to-income ratios. It’s astonishing that 70% of all VRM borrowers here are now repaying no principal.
A big chunk of those folks are investors. They took a VRM to finance a pre-con or rental condo, now in negative cash flow with no prospect of that changing. Many have decided to bail. Many more will likely follow.
So the Bank of Canada will keep rates where they are on Wednesday. The US Fed will hike in two weeks. Our guys may reverse course and add a quarter point in mid-April. Or maybe not. Everything is data-dependent these days, with policy vacillating from one CPI or jobs report to the next. What’s increasingly clear is that no pivot is likely for a year, a least. No reversal. No drop in the cost of money, the bank prime or variable-rate mortgage costs.
Too many buyers rolled the dice, went cheap, and lost. Along the way their avarice and bad choices helped escalate real estate and bring us to this moment.
Should we have sympathy?
About the picture: “Daily long time reader, and much appreciate the blog,” writes Thom. “We are visiting our daughter in Brisbane, Australia for the winter. Here is her new guy “Shrimp”. He is a lively lovable one.”
142 comments ↓
Don’t worry. Home prices will continue to rise over the next 30 years just like they have over the previous 30 years.
Pay off your mortgage as soon as possible and then stay out of debt and you will be fine.
How can amortization be extended past 30 years? I thought that’s the max amount you can get especially with an insured mortgage. What am I missing?
And the headline story in the Financial Post today is about subprime loans – I mean,”private mortgages”. In Ontario, they are 10.6% of the overall market according to the latest data.
The regulators say that subprime – sorry, private mortgages – are a “relatively small segment of the market and doesn’t pose significant risk *to the financial system*”. (Emphasis mine)
I’m glad that the banks will be fine! Let’s see how everybody else fares.
https://financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/private-mortgage-risk-flagged-regulators-growth-shadow-banking
Hey hey…
I am appealing my assessment today.
Should we have sympathy?
Why would we have sympathy? If anything we will have envy, from all the money they will be make down the road. I’m fine with my boring 60/40, buts insane real estate prices will never die Garth. When will you realize that?
Been posting this for years now…and what has changed. Nothing. Look around, Ukraine is allowed to happen (We know he has WMD/He’s killing his own people?) and we here get the Inflation, Interest Rate flattening.
#96 TurnerNation on 10.08.19 at 8:16 am
Anyone own a house here? As 1st World countries get wound down. As I always say, 1st World countries get economically bom’d. 2nd and 3rd ones just get bom’d.
#102 TurnerNation on 12.01.15 at 11:02 pm
As I always say 1st World Countries get bombed economically.
————-
We do not have a Free Economy in Kanada. All, run by the handful of Oligopolies, the food board and Central Planning. The government Is inflation
.The federal government’s carbon pricing is set to increase from $50 per tonne to $65 per tonne on April 1, 2023. The Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation says that will increase the current 11.05 cents per litre carbon price to 14.31 cents per litre of gas. (ctv.ca)
——– Welcome, New Canadians. Can I interest you in a Million Dollar Sht Bung? Or a $1000/month car lease?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/juarez-mexico-border-migrants-title42-1.6767632
At the U.S.-Mexico border, desperate migrants have sights set on Canada
“I was physically threatened,” Ramirez told CBC News. “Because I belonged to the wrong party.”
Left behind in Venezuela are their four children. Ramirez and Urbina say they hope they will be able to join them later, once they reach safety.
Whether it strikes you or not, a price change of 30% is, of course, a market correction. For those waiting to buy who have the means, it was an entry point. Concurrent with pointing this out, the blog also said a greater unwinding has been delayed, not shelved. To be triggered that will take a consequential economic slide not currently on the horizon. There will be no real estate reset without a whole lot of pain. Of course, to make you happy, I can always lie. Would you prefer that? – Garth
>>>
No Garth, never.
If anything, the last few weeks of you running through points has been an illustration that you don’t know. None of us do.
You’ve been reasoning it out, and have simply gone along with (some) data points to support your point of view.
That’s fair enough. Even if we both know that data can be spun incorrectly. Or could plainly be frankendata. Or if the data is really inconvenient, data can be completely disregarded. Just look at masks for an example of how that happens, even today. I mean, have you seen the latest “bible of medicine” rigorous scientific standard Cochrane study that was published? You see it being reported by anyone, anywhere?
Back to the “correction.”
What I think is the main point of contention is the declaration that a “correction” has occurred, apparently.
Of course you are right in the technical sense. Prices went down form the heights of pandemic hysteria, which let us not forget was highly contributed to by lack of supply as people weren’t willing to move, fear of people interaction in the sale transaction process, lack of necessity to move as things went remote and of course as you’ve noted repeatedly – pure insanity in the bunny patch as people wanted to get away from denser city populations at any cost.
So, yes, you’re right Garth – 30% from the panic insanity point not underpinned by anything meaningful but emotion – like the Game Stop episode. You’ve written a few blogs about human emotion, so it should hardly be disregarded in this pandemic values spike.
I think it’s fair you look back just a touch before the pandemic, and compare that to where we are today.
Game Stop “corrected”, down to $18.75 USD today. But pre-pandemic it was $1.00 USD. Does today’s valuation make sense?
And yes, you’re 100% right that there won’t be a further correction without real pain. At this point, our leaders broke things so badly, they’re way past the point of no return. Way past too big to fail. While walking your dog year or two back you probably came to that conclusions just as you were dutifully scooping the poop and wondered if that’s the Canadian economy in your hand right there.
The elephant in the room is the giant steaming turd of debt much bigger than all the dogs in this country could squeeze out. And as your CIBC example illustrates no one has the balls to limit the terms, demand repayment, etc. on this giant pile of debt.
One issue is…if 20% of CIBC delinquents are getting help, boost, corporate policy assistance to keep them in a house they can’t afford, what incentive is there for the other 80% to behave correctly?
If I may quote a Guardian article:
“Reams of research and stacks of business books tell us that knocking incentives even slightly out of alignment with achievement has a terrible effect on organisations – plunging workers into a kind of exhausted cynicism. Just one conspicuous instance of nepotism can infect an entire company, sending job satisfaction rolling downhill, along with productivity. Top employees leave and others stop bothering to compete. And what is true for companies is true for industries at large, or even societies.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/29/nepo-babies-claim-their-parentage-is-overblown-truth-is-theyre-helped-all-the-way
You see this lack-of-incentive phenomenon in the jobs market right now. And you see it spreading to other areas. Debt repayment is not far behind. After all…what could they do if you don’t replay the debt? Massage your debt so it doesn’t look so bad on the books. CLEARLY the won’t write it off as bad debt, or risk and hit their profitability! That’s just been demonstrated by CIBC.
Not like these 20% of people have good credit rating already. Why should they care? What can be taken from someone who clearly already has nothing?
It’s clear the government will not let real estate die.
It’s basically the only plan right now. Pump up immigration and let the prices skyrocket. Should have invested more in RE…sigh…I guess I’ll have to settle for my boring ol’ 60/40 in the meantime.
Could have sympathy for those that chose Variable, which is usually the better choice) and were simply looking for a home and fearing being priced out. Definitely no sympathy for speculators/flippers or the greedy landlords etc
Hi Garth . Wow! A year ago there were no 35 year variable rate mortgages in Penquin Banks book, And now close to a third ! That is really scary. Im almost 70 but I sure remember some apparently pretty bright millenials telling my Chartered Accountant wife and myself with a rolling of the eye toward us boomers when we asked if they were not concerned about high debt levels and that interest rates could rise. ” Oh the government would never allow that to happen ” They had no idea the bond market and not the government control interest rates. They do now.
Sympathy? These folks have loans and houses they didn’t qualify for and the central bank is taking these “poor souls” into account (because there are so many of them and they represent a potentially systemic risk to the economy) when making up their interest rate policy that affects us all, including the ones who have been ants instead of grasshoppers.
Not really.
“In the States (where they learned this lesson 15 years ago) only 5% of home loans are at floating rates.”
It will be Canada’s turn to learn this lesson. It is the US’s turn to laugh at us as opposed to what happened in 2009.
Tiff Macklem shouldn’t have decided to hold rates for now.
When the FED hikes next week, our Loonie will collapse due to the interest rate divergence.
No it will not collapse. So many drama queens on here. – Garth
Coworker mortgage went from 1.5% to 5.5% on $600K. Do the math. He’s now on a journey to a 50 year ammo. No one told him rates would go up he says. I did in January and before that, I reminded him. He don’t talk to me much anymore.
Should we have sympathy?
=========
Tough question and an even more difficult answer. It would be easy to say no ,let them crash and burn ,sadly that would lead to society upheaval this country has neven seen before and could destabilize the whole system. As much as we joke about it a 50 years amortization might be the only thing saving us from the imminent collapse short term.
Long term I woud maintain that unless there is a massive state owned construction with 0 cost for land and preapproved building plans there is no way out ,especially with the lack of enforcemnt of current laws. I am not a doomer by any means ,however I am very disheartned by the lack of enforcement and the “all rights , no resposabilities” approach.
Public transit and the “15 minutes city” requires people to feel safe ,which means no tents ,druggies or mentally unwell people on the streets. Why do we keep deprioritizing the rights of the victims while enable what righfullly is criminal behaviour it is beyond comprehension.
I guess the conclusion is that sympathy shall be limited and consequences enforced ,controlled maybe to avoid collapse but they should exist.
‘Shrimp’ looks ready to offer sage advice to the house lusty, or to those whose mortgage renewal choices have resulted in a loss in net worth plus increased debt.
I do have some sympathy towards those purchasers who were reaching for the dream of home ownership. Can’t say the same for the ones who were ‘investing’. If anyone is purchasing for investing purposes presumably they have done their homework & calculated the potential ROI vs. risk. If not, well, even experienced business people can get spanked when the business environment enters a downturn. Newbies learn a painful lesson which hopefully will keep them from making the same mistake a second time.
That having been said, I do feel that even those reaching for the dream need to do due diligence. Trying to blame their predicament on others (but Tiff said – seriously?) only applies if there was actual financial coercion occurring. Bottom line is, unless someone was literally forcing you via threats/blackmail/violence when you made the offer to purchase & signed the mortgage papers, the only person responsible is you. Welcome to the joy of being an adult.
And this is what I mean by, the bond maths holds the whip-hand:
About 20 years ago highly leveraged buyouts could be funded using payment-in-kind (PIK) debt. Just what it says: the interest was paid in the form of new debt, which itself compounded at the margin. So bonds PIKing at 9% would pay interest in bonds PIKing at 12%…so debt was compounding much faster over time.
…very few of the issuing companies survived – and PIK debt PIKked apart their bondholders….
Bond maths comes to Main St in the form of silly Canadian mortgage structures….
TGIG
Ricardo retardo. The US to ban free trade in foreign tech sectors. They do not like those ‘rival economies’.
https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2023/03/05/us-to-ban-investment-in-foreign-tech-sectors/
ps- should be illegal, what the banks are doing with mortgages.
Ginger cats are amazing
And generally speaking cats are very affectionate too, and will love you a lot if you love them back and take good care of them.
Should we have sympathy?
>>>
Hmm….
Yes. Yes, we should.
I’ll tell you why.
It is the responsibility of the policy makers to not show up at the party with a bowl of drugs.
If they do, they are directly responsible for the majority of the issues. No bowl, no overdose, no 2 kids being killed by a high dude driving, no activity by intoxicated out-of-control people.
What about will power? What about discipline? …I hear you say. Oh sure. Like will power is absolute in all humans, right? We are not naive enough to know will power doesn’t work.
Parallel this to food and obesity.
Our leaders and policy makers have made no mandates about good food, and have allowed the food industry to run wild. Extreme processing. Aggressive marketing. Hiring armies of scientists to make food addictive.
Result: Obesity is out of control. Suddenly in a few short decades America has gotten oh ever so unhealthy. I shake my head when I think of 2 in 10 children being obese in North America today. I certainly have a sad face walking by a Dollarama at lunch time to see dozens of students with their lunch meals. Or same by fast food chains. Or by Timmies with kids holding their 60gr of sugar “beverages”.
It is exploitation of human nature, human weakness.
It makes me sad.
It clearly demonstrates that profit above this is wrong.
No politician will close that potato chip company in his town, because he wouldn’t be a politician much longer.
Instead, example after example, they allow poison into humans by addicting them to salt, sugar, crunch.
Then…I click on a piece in National Post about Ozempic, and read quotes by…Dr. Wharton, an obesity medicine specialist and adjunct professor at McMaster University in Hamilton and York University in Toronto.
He said: “People living with obesity — excess adipose tissue that’s causing disease — have a genetic condition that drives their eating behaviours.”
https://nationalpost.com/health/how-ozempic-works
Genetic condition? GENETIC?
I guess will power, or lack of is perhaps genetic.
Maybe our “genes” evolved as a result of our environment in short few decades?
Why do I ask? In 1962, just 13% of Americans were obese. 2018, pre-pandemic? 42.4%. Projections for 2030 anyone? It’s just 7 years away. 48.9% of Americans will be obese by then, and 24.2% will be severely obese.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_the_United_States
What has changed in these short few 5 or 6 decades?
More fast food? More processed food? More sugar? More salt? More delivery? Larger bags? Chips on sale, $2.49 when you buy 3 or more bags ($3.99ea when less than 3)?
You’ve written about FOMO repeatedly. That’s another key one. Fear. Add that exploitation of human fear human greed and desire, and…well…you started the blog for a reason. It just didn’t make sense to you. Take a look at the Power Point from your Toronto Airport Westin presentation of 15 years ago to remember how little sense it made even back then.
It didn’t make sense then.
It makes even less sense now.
But the punch bowl is still on the table Dear Garth. No one has the balls to take it away.
And so Garth, yes…people have some responsibility. But I feel sympathy. I also feel sympathy for all those who didn’t buy houses, because it was clearly the way to go.
I’ve watched The Big Short a few times…who is to blame exactly? Who are the evil dudes in that movie? The buyers of houses? The real estate broker pawns? The stripper with five houses and a condo? Or is it someone else Garth?
Garth failed to mention that the banks must periodically mark these growing principal loans to market. This looks and smells like a conspiracy between the BOC, CMHC and the big banks to prop up the real estate market and of course the big realtors. Perhaps Garth’s fail to mention was his show of support for the team at least for now. Will “mark to market” bring down the whole kit ncaboodle? Yes it will once all the building trades folks are collecting UI.
Prosperity dictates that the insolvent must be liquidated lest we waste capital on zombies as Japan did in the 1990’s lost decade. Remember the ONLY thing that brings prosperity to all is competition. Government meddling will prolong the agony and pour cold water on the economy. I feel that the Canadian way will make it worse so I will sell my banks stock soon and buy US dollars.
What most of us probably want to know is whether the economy is destined for gradual decline or sudden collapse. The indications on this issue are contradictory. On the one hand, the economy itself is subject to trends which, whilst adverse, are essentially gradual. On the other, the financial system has been managed (meaning mis-managed) in ways which seem to eliminate any possibility of managed decline.
The plan here is to start by examining, in brief, these two, seemingly-contradictory conditions, and then turn to what some of the implications of this asymmetry might be.
1. The material economy
As we know, the economy is a system for the supply of material products and services to the public. The resulting aggregate is calculated by the SEEDS economic model and is known here as prosperity. The deduction of necessities supplies a second SEEDS metric known as PXE (prosperity excluding essentials).
The economy thus described is a product of the use of energy. The vast and complex economy of today can be traced directly to that point in history at which we discovered a means of converting heat into work. The date usually attached to this discovery is 1776, when James Watt completed the first truly efficient steam engine. This discovery enabled us to harness the vast reserves of energy contained in coal, oil and natural gas.
Quite naturally, we have always accessed lowest-cost resources first, leaving costlier alternatives for later. This ‘later’ has now arrived. Over a lengthy period, the fossil fuel energy supplied to the economy has been getting steadily more expensive. The cost referenced here isn’t financial, but energetic – it’s the percentage of accessed energy which, being consumed in the access process, is not available for any other economic purpose.
This ‘consumed in access’ component is known here as the Energy Cost of Energy. All-sources ECoEs are on a long-established and relentless uptrend, having risen from 2% in 1980 to 10% now. You might like to think of this as a five-fold increase in the material cost of energy to the economy. This process is continuing, and ECoEs are likely to reach 13% by 2030, and 17% by 2040.
No economy, as currently conceived, can cope with these levels of ECoE. Complex Western economies have been experiencing (though not admitting to) deteriorating prosperity since the early 2000s, when ECoEs were between 4.2% (in 2000) and 5.7% (in 2008). Less complex EM (emerging market) economies, by virtue of their lower systemic maintenance costs, are better equipped to cope with rising ECoEs, but their prosperity, too, has started to contract now that ECoEs have reached double digits.
It is widely supposed that we can overcome the effects of deteriorating fossil fuel economics – and simultaneously minimise environmental and ecological harm – by switching to renewable energy sources (REs), principally wind and solar power. These, we are told, can not only support current lifestyles, but deliver “sustainable growth” as well.
This favourable outcome is, in fact, extremely implausible, for two main reasons. First, scale expansion of the magnitude required would demand vast quantities of concrete, steel, copper, lithium, cobalt and many other inputs which, even where they do exist in the requisite quantities, could only be accessed and put to use using correspondingly vast amounts of energy. Since this could only come from fossil fuels, there is an ‘umbilical link’ between the ECoEs of renewables and those of fossil fuels.
The second obstacle is even more fundamental. It is that renewable energy is less dense than fossil fuels. The economy operates by using energy to convert raw materials into products, a process whose thermal counterpart is the conversion of energy from dense into diffuse forms, the latter being waste heat. The lesser density of renewables lies at the heart of the practical obstacles to transition – these obstacles include conversion efficiency limitations, intermittency, and the problem of storage.
These considerations mean that, whilst a sustainable economy might be possible, it would be smaller than the economy that we have now. Simply stated, “sustainability” is feasible, but “sustainable growth” is a pipe-dream.
Should we have sympathy? Absolutely not, why should anybody be sympathetic to those fools who bid the prices up so high in the first place?
The way ahead?
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/if-you-are-short-canadian-banks-its-not-a-bad-place-to-be-if-your-looking-ahead-4-6-months-green~2639915
To everyone dreaming of RE dodging the brew that is beneath the surface and hoping prices will continue to go up, just because they went up marginally in first half of this year:
No sympathies when this house of cards burns! Not an IOTA. You made your bed, time to lay in it.
For Canada to come out of this mess, it needs competitive/innovative fields(ponies) in it’s economy. This one trick has run it’s course.
“the ONLY thing that brings prosperity to all is competition”
?
Is Lack of Competition Strangling the U.S. Economy?
The troubling effect of industry consolidation and other forces on productivity, wages, and income inequality by
David Wessel
From the Magazine (March–April 2018) https://hbr.org/2018/03/is-lack-of-competition-strangling-the-u-s-economy
That’s one handsome kitty cat! Clearly would prefer to try and catch a fixed speed mouse , as opposed to a variable speed mouse!
Meanwhile, Canadians have been far house hornier than Americans, with real estate at nosebleed price-to-income ratios…. Should we have sympathy? -GT +++
Hell no. And before any examination about our ‘feelings’ on whether sympathy is in order we need a deep dive on exactly why and how we got so much further into the deep end of the pool than our American cousins. Could it be our demographics? Could it be that some cultural norms embrace real estate over stocks & bonds, and the measure of a man providing for his family can only be confirmed by home ownership with other real estate following close on it’s heels? Why does it matter, you ask? Because in order to understand the way out of a jam it’s important to know how you got there in the first place. We’re talking about real estate today, but the level of consumer debt held (including all those upside down vehicle loans) is way bigger than most peeps might imagine. If peeps really knew they would be running around with their hair on fire.
The traditional way of getting out of a ‘jam’ involved facing up to reality and cutting one’s losses. Sell the asset to repay the debt, and if there is a shortfall you restructure to repay your legal and moral obligation.
Wish I had more confidence this is how things will roll. We don’t seem to be living in that world anymore. Unprecedented financial shenanigans going on, War in Europe, and social unrest everywhere you look. What’s next, a coup d’etat? It might be the best we can hope for, better than ‘contagion’. Best to sleep with one eye open and bolt the doors and windows, peeps.
#147 Observer on 03.06.23 at 2:51 pm
#142 Anna on 03.06.23 at 2:25 pm
#135 Sail Away
So brave of you to go to a grocery store and buy pieces of the body of an exploited abused animal. That’s really impressive /s
———
I see you’ve encountered this blog’s resident sociopath, or at least the most repulsive one. Don’t bother looking for any empathy where none exists. You would have really been upset when he was going on and on about enjoying eating dogs. Best advice is to ignore him. He gets off on upsetting others.
———
Lol. Still butthurt about the CPP thing, eh O? Not my fault.
However, knowing that I’m not acquiring and consuming meat in accordance with your and Anna’s expectations raises a few deep thoughts… like: ‘who cares?’, ‘so what?’, and ‘tough patooties’.
Mmmm… bacon.
:-)
@Theory of everything, post #20:
You mentioned the obesity epidemic. One cause you forgot to mention was the car dependent society where, because of all this urban sprawl, a lot of people simply don’t get enough exercise. You are right about how these high energy foods are also a contributing factor, but I also eat my share of high energy foods but am not obese. It’s all a matter of not overeating and actually stopping eating when you are full, and I walk and bike to get around as much as is practical. If someone like me, who was the wimpy kid who was totally useless at sports in my school days can control my weight it can’t be that hard.
Now back to real estate, I think these people who got themselves in the mess they’re in now take at least some of the blame. They should have known that, after a period of record setting low interest rates, the odds are they would go up again like they did in 1990. Say, have you heard that new song Blue Sky Mine by Midnight Oil from Australia? How about Freefalling by Tom Petty? Is it true that East and West Germany will be reunited by year’s end?
Canada needs to do something. How do we convince people, or maybe governments, or somebody, to pull investment out of unproductive-but-basically-government-backstopped real estate (past year notwithstanding) and invest that into actual productive sectors of the economy?
How do we make it so that money invested in tech or AI or something returns a greater percentage than just parking it in a GTA semi and waiting a few years?
Sometimes there is nothing more to add…
https://nypost.com/2023/03/06/shameless-aoc-is-queen-democrat-bee-of-rules-for-thee-but-not-for-me/
#147 Observer
Good to know. Thanks for the heads up!
‘ear!
‘ear!
Hey #22;
I think you are describing EROI – energy return on investment.
It used to be really high; if it gets to 1:1, it means that it takes $1.00 to get $1.00 of energy out – no business would do that.
Wikipedia does ok on the description:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_return_on_investment
Art Berman is a (retired??) geologist who spent his career in the oil industry. I’ve been following him since the days of “the oil drum” website was active.
Go to minute 26.02 of the following video:
https://youtu.be/zVhM9F3UNZY
for one way of showing what good EROI does for us. The whole video is worth watching, but is kind of depressing.
I know that the Jaguar here follows Art Berman; likely many others do too.
I keep saying “we’ve individually got to use less energy” but of course, a) only a physicist or chemist (or the odd smart person) knows what that means, and b) we seem to think adding layers of technology will help.
(one of the reasons why I’m so anti-car on this blog, despite loving to drive)
Should we have sympathy? Complex question; for those investors who had bought some place with no intention of ever living there, no sympathy from me. They used their resources and tried to leverage themselves up the ladder, hoping that prices would continue on their steep upwards trajectory, and then could sell. Gambled, and failed.
I have more empathy for young couples who over-paid for some place a few years ago and where their intention was to lay down roots for many years to raise a family and be part of some community and possibly close to relatives etc… It was a clear risk to overpay, and more patience was needed. That financial mistake will in many cases take years to undo.
However, in the Canada of today, young families starting out are clearly behind the financial eight-ball essentially no matter what option they choose. No need for sympathy, it’s just the reality of what Canada has become.
Without investors the rental market would be a complete disaster. You have a narrow, twisted and incorrect view. – Garth
“…….Lenders don’t want foreclosures, jingle mail, powers of sale or to be in the business of owning houses. So, one solution to this mess has been to extend amortizations for these afflicted clients. By adding five or ten years to the period of time over which payments (debt plus interest) are calculated, the interest portion of the monthly is reduced and the loans come onside…”
=======================
Question
……..somewhat theoretical/rhetorical.
Cannot the mortgaged homeowner claim ” breach of contract”..?
…….are they obligated to comply with lenders new terms ?
Sympathy? No.
Do I care? No.
Will I for the next two weeks? No.
Will I after the next two weeks? Prob. not.
Will I ever have sympathy for the duped? Yes.
Their parents? No.
Grandparents? Yes.
Time to experience….its been long enough.
Stay fit, G. Chin up!
Og
Via BNN Bloomberg:
We’re just being a lot more frugal and on top of our finances,” said Peter Esper, a mortgage broker in the Toronto area who was hit hard by interest-rate increases after relying on variable-rate mortgages…. The payments on the home he shares with his wife and two kids went up by nearly $3,000 a month, while the difference between mortgage costs and what he was charging in rent on the four condos he owned as investment properties ballooned to a collective $4,000 a month in negative cash flow. Now he’s sold two of those condos and plans to list the third, while also canceling his cable TV package and opting to brew coffee at home rather than buying it at Tim Hortons.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-higher-interest-rates-cause-borrowers-pain-1.1891637
The service sector inflation is the most sticky( so I read).
Why is there little info on how many fixed rate mortgages will renew in 2023/24… I mean fomo brought out talk of generational mortgages… what the heck is everyone thing? Talk about work life balance, no wonder people want work from home…They Can’t Afford The Gas to get to Work.
What were they thinking? At a time when rentals are going up everywhere across Canada and almost every house in the country has a suite or in some cases more than one. BIG CRASHOLA COMING.
Lenders don’t want foreclosures, jingle mail, powers of sale or to be in the business of owning houses. So, one solution to this mess has been to extend amortizations for these afflicted clients. By adding five or ten years to the period of time over which payments (debt plus interest) are calculated, the interest portion of the monthly is reduced and the loans come onside.
——————————
Does this also apply to investors, speculators, cottages?
If so, totally ridiculous and no sympathy whatsoever.
Solved by open ended amort’s. So let’s break open a bottle of water and toast watered down success!
“Too many buyers rolled the dice, went cheap, and lost. Along the way their avarice and bad choices helped escalate real estate and bring us to this moment.
Should we have sympathy?”
———
Yes, of course we should have sympathy. Most of the people who really get themselves into trouble do not really understand the risk and liability they are undertaking at the time.
Also likely is that they have no good sounding board for advice, and unfortunately, unlike an imprudent car loan, a bad mortgage mistake can equal lifetime financial devastation.
First time homebuyers are not educated investors. Riskier investments require an investor to be accredited, but anybody with a paycheck can wander into a bank and blow their brains out with debt.
Yes, sympathy is in order.
So my 5 years at 3.38% fixer is up for renewal. The lender offered me 5 year variable at prime – 1% so I went with that. I guess we’re at the peak of the rate cycle. Time will tell
Garth, you could not have said it any better, too many buyers rolled the dice and that is exactly what they did, you are so correct, it was almost as if it was a game.
The odds of rolling dice are 16. % meaning, their chance to lose was at an already 84% odds against them. Rolling the dice means, a risky attempt to achieve something, this blog used the term,” FOMO” Fear of Missing out many times, reality is the frenzy buyers got caught with their pants down.
Most people where spending will over a Million dollars on their new found toy, The now extra 5 years added on amortization will cost the owner an extra $200 thousand on a million-dollar mortgage home to get an amortization extension, this is incomprehensible to the point, they were almost like sheep. The new found buyers have no idea what they have done to themselves.
The who’s at fault fight is still on with some Canadian communities for you and I to pay for their loses, let’s see where that goes, that’s right, apparently you are to blame according to many buyers in 2021, you are responsible for their mess that they put themselves in “as the saying goes, when you point that finger, you have 4 pointed back at yourself” so suck it up Johnny and pay your bills like a Man, “ no pun on the gender, not meant to exclude women”.
One survey is showing that 74% of Canadians are worried about paying their bills, so where is the sudden flurry of home sales coming from, and the food banks cannot keep up, there is one page missing from my understanding of our economy right now, we don’t know where to turn next. Most reports you read seem to be running 180 degrees from the last one you read, Garth Said it best when he used the term, rolling the dice, it appears the media does the same of what they have to say on any given day.
Quote of the day: You must take responsibility for your own choices and actions, for you learn nothing until you take ownership of your life
#29 Sail Away on 03.06.23 at 4:09 pm
Lol. Still butthurt about the CPP thing, eh O? Not my fault.
^^^^^^^^^^
Huh? That was worthwhile discourse which may have inspired a reader or two to more closely consider their options.
Typical sociopath to try to find some negative angle though. Shrug.
@#29 Sail Away
“Mmmm… bacon.”
+++
ahahaha.
Reminds me of Homer
” A wonderful magical animal….”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BZDZyRaGa8
Sympathy is between Sh!t and Syphilis in the Dictionary.
– 1980s overbearing boss from Houston, TX. Heifer Head, Texas A&M sabre brandishing Cadet, hated “Commies”.
No sympathy. Pay up or cash out.
The system is so in-debt it needs inflation to inflate the debt away. Hence Interest rates will not be high enough to get inflation to 2% but high enough to keep it in a range, say 3-5%
The Canadian Dollar depends on the difference between US and Canadian Interest rates, and the price of Oil. So we can’t move too far from the USA on rates as we have greater debt and are more interest rate sensitive.
The Canadian financial system is dependent on Real Estate, so Real Estate will be supported, TPTB will contort themselves into pretzels to keep the game going. “If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.”
Canada is a farm, designed for the farmers, a few well moated oligopolies extracting the “value add “ of the working class, so invest in our protected industries, be a farmer of the Canadian working class, when you can’t beat em, join em.
1.Rates are most likely not coming down anytime soon. If they do it would not be good at all and it signifies weakness and gradual decent of our society…
https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2023/03/what-if-whole-point-is-to-end-fed-put.html
2.Reported AMS that are longer then 35 years are actually closer to 70 YEARS. I suppose that is longer then 35 years but really mortgages that are longer then 70 or 80 years are crazy business…see for your self…
https://twitter.com/silberschmelzer/status/1632091132250259457?cxt=HHwWgoC8rZqPraYtAAAA
https://twitter.com/silberschmelzer/status/1632411509744697354?cxt=HHwWlIC82dDnvqctAAAA
3.Canada is nation that is facing painful margin call….
https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1632781750295224321?cxt=HHwWgoCz4buW56gtAAAA
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-06/canada-s-higher-interest-rates-cause-borrowers-pain-in-inflation-fight?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Should we have sympathy for the real estate owners ?
I would say yes as much sympathy as they have displayed to the renters in the past two decades.
37 Observer
“Typical sociopath to try to find some negative angle though.”
+++
Careful.
Your “found in a cereal box” psychology diploma is showing…
We were warning people many years ago not to do this and here it is blowing up in their faces. Never pay more than you can afford to lose.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-06/canada-s-higher-interest-rates-cause-borrowers-pain-in-inflation-fight?leadSource=uverify%20wall&fbclid=IwAR2xW_5kHjSmFeWYAr17tSYyHyh2qXNFTUylm-iIwuT-1spgnuCTmZWPSOk
Without investors the rental market would be a complete disaster. You have a narrow, twisted and incorrect view. – Garth
——-
This of course begs the return question. Who would you have sympathy for in this situation? Young families trying to purchase their first home, or the investor class citizen who is purchasing their fifth apartment on a pre-sale? Actually, perhaps it is best if we don’t know your answer.
If a young family wants a condo, there are thousands available. The rental pool would scrape bottom without people owning leased units, most of this are in negative cash flow. Your perspective is skewed and (again) wholly incorrect. – Garth
Bank are fleecing the house horny sheep. From what I understand in todays article bankers are like landlords since the monthly payments don’t decrease pricinple its probably costing more than double to rent the same place (taking into account taxes , maintenance).
Starlink and Broadband just ate Urban North America for lunch.
Buy in the Country. Ditch the City.
https://open.spotify.com/track/5QHElgktygMkgRdpPhXfn2?si=10641b8a744a4aa8
Yeah.
Royal Bank first in the green, 1Y:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=1Y
Mar 6, 5:00:00 PM UTC-5
Has been for most of Feb. As for the rest, oy vey.
Ask the homeowners how they feel about this
‘We don’t feel safe’: US community in shock after record methane leak. The deafening noise and the foul smell of rotten eggs that followed was a massive methane leak at a nearby gas storage facility, an unfolding climate catastrophe captured by satellites in space.
A billion cubic feet of the potent greenhouse gas were spewed into atmosphere in rural Pennsylvania amid state’s fracking boom
The Rager Mountain leak was huge. The estimated flow rate on 7 November, the day after the leak sprung, was 120 tonnes of methane an hour, according to satellite data analysed by the company Kayrros. By this measure, it was only the second largest onshore leak in the US last year, surpassed by one near San Antonio, Texas in March which discharged 147 tonnes of methane an hour.
After two weeks, the company announced the leak had finally been plugged. But according to Harrison, the jet-like noise continued on and off for several more weeks. The state regulator, the department of environmental protection (DEP), which was initially denied access to the site, has cited the company for multiple maintenance violations since the leak, though it did not find cause for concern during routine inspections last June and October. State and federal investigations are continuing.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/06/us-methane-gas-leak-fracking-jackson-township-pennsylvania
This isn’t about sympathy, it’s about accountability.
As part of the patriarchy you are fully accountable for EVERYTHING.
Never forget that.
You are the one who gets nailed to the cross.
Hopefully you read the blog and it helped you say NO!
Who cares if they want a house.
Tell them to buy it themselves.
Keep working 80 hour weeks, keep the beta in your portfolio low, work on your physique, and laugh all the way to the bank.
Just curious, but I believe HELOC’s are like that too, with debt adding up if payments not made.
I don’t think we are seeing the entire debt structure here yet.
The shadow banking system (private lenders) are a factor too. How do they manage the same issue with variable mortgages?
I saw a chart on another financial blog that caught my interest the other day.
The chart was released by the New York Fed, Census bureau and it is a comparison of % of disposable income versus mortgage balances, US, nation wide.
I’m assuming the disposable income figure is an average. Obviously I can’t post it here.
Ok so in 2008 US mortgage balances were almost 9.5 trillion and took about 84% of disposable income to cover.
Fast forward to 2022 and 12 trillion in mortgage balances now only require about 64% of disposable income.
This tells me the Americans are managing their personal debt much better than we are so their CB has a lot more room to navigate to higher rates.
I’m going to nerd out in Statscan to see if I can find a similar comparison for Canada.
I believe this is a comparison of interest if you happen to be in the market as a potential buyer.
I’ll try CMHC too, but they aren’t involved in every purchase.
So….. about banks increasing amortization of mortgages. Can banks just wave their magic oligopolistic wand and extend the amortization of a mortgages? Does the mortgages need to be legally amended?
As I recall (and it’s been a long time) when I got mortgages lawyers were always involved and it was impressed upon buyers that the mortgage is a legally binding document.
So how does a keystone part of the mortgage get altered? Does every mortgage that is extended get rewritten? Is it in the boilerplate conditions of the mortgage? Are the banks at risk if they do not legally amend the mortgage? And are banks at risk if they unilaterally extend an insured mortgage beyond what allowed by regulation?
Just seems that same since a major condition of the mortgage is being altered some formal amendment of the legal text is required?
#30 Doug in London
You’re right.
I will maybe add this. It’s not just the car dependency. It’s the delivery economy. Amazon, bringing crap to your door step. Making you not leave your house. Making you ever more lazy. Amazon sells laziness, and now even your car is no longer necessary.
Amazon of course will bring you your chips, candy bars and even pop. Amzon pulled $14.5B of revenue from edible grocery sales in middle of pandemic 2021. That will grow to $26.7B in 3 years. People…walking to the store…to buy food…? That’s so last millenium.
I say that 2030 obesity target is wrong. I think by 2030 we’ll get past 50%. I’m going to call 55%!
GO AMERICA GO! YOU CAN DO IT!
So the solution to this mortgage debt crisis is…more debt? Brilliant. What could go wrong?
Evidently people learned nothing from 2008 or the movie the Big Short. Jack up rates and let the chips fall where they may and if greater fools get financially cremated that is their hard luck. They are all over 21 and responsible for their actions.
Why isnt Canada a Super Power:
– One of the largest Oil Reserves
– Largest Natural Gas Reserves
– Mining…huge potential unexplored
– Forestry – World class
– Farming – Top Grade
Yet we are a whimpy country that only exists because of protection from alliances.
Cant Canada do BETTER?
Where’s that little dickens Sean Melvin chatbot guy? He professed not to know who Antifa was….wellum, here’s a little headline to clue you in.
https://www.dailysignal.com/2023/03/06/splc-lawyer-arrested-atlanta-molotov-cocktail-riot-faces-terrorism-charges/
23 arrested with their photos released. The pendulum is swinging back on so many progressive issues these days. Better late than never…
“Should we have sympathy?”
For what?
People should be thankful they got such a great deal on interest rates for so long. The smart people used the opportunity to get out of debt.
Anyone who thought ZIRP could last the life of a mortgage probably shouldn’t be allowed to operate machinery. Or vote.
And interest rates are still negative! How long that will last I don’t know. The hope is that inflation will go down, but I don’t think so. Fiscal policy is screwed. Just look at he US debt ceiling argument. Everyone knows after a whole bunch of theatrics the Republicans will cave, they always do. And the reason is simple; the budget cannot be balanced. Not now, not ever. It is politically impossible and the hole is already too big.
People been out there sayin’ for years that the debt would one day go exponential and could no longer be paid off. Well guess what? It was math. There are no counter-arguments. And today is “one day”. Welcome to the future.
The argument used to be that higher interest rates slow borrowing and thus spending and thus inflation. However, the evidence is in that we are now in territory where higher rates cause increased borrowing because the principle is self-reinforcing. It’s a loop! Bet you didn’t see that coming! Well, people who thought about it did. That’s why they built the debt clock. But nobody wanted to think about that. And now folks, it is actually too late. There is nothing that can be done about it anymore.
Garth been sayin’ we can fix it with higher tax rates. Sorry folks, that is delusional. It’s just one more way of saying we just don’t want to face the facts. There ain’t enough dollars out there to tax to stop what’s coming. And we are already at peak tax. Rates can go up, but not revenue.
Buy all the things. Cash is trash. The great reset is coming, but it’s not the one evil Santa Klaus has in mind. It’s a dime for a dollar.
Everest Canadian Resources, which operates a Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) facility north of Fort McMurray, was handed the order to immediately stop operations at all of its licensed assets on Friday, March 3 by the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER).
https://www1.aer.ca/compliancedashboard/enforcement.html
https://www1.aer.ca/compliancedashboard/enforcement/202303-06_Everest%20Canadian%20Resources%20Corp_Order.pdf
https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/alberta-energy-regulator-ignored-law-by-not-disclosing-oilsands-leak-lawyer-says
@#54 American Home Buyers
Good Bloomberg article.
Canadian consumer debt 185% of income.
Canadian variable mortgages are approx 30% of all mortgages
(Australia seemed to be about 85%?!?! crazy).
Rates may keep rising ( certainly not dropping).
Lets see how new housing construction is doing in 6 months.
Im not optimistic.
If indeed 70% of VRM borrowers are now only paying interest, that would include lots of people who bought well before the crazy pandemic years. One wonders what their motivation is. Are they just going with whatever the bank demands of them, not caring that their pile of debt goes up? Or are they just as cash-strapped as the pandemic buyers? Or maybe they can’t live without their daily tall latte?
You’d think anyone with smarts and spare cash would make use of their prepayment privileges to at least keep the amortization where it should be.
Speaking of Floaters…
I remember when victoria had a mascot – Mr. Floatie, he was the BEST – guy dressed up as a huge turd – showed up at parades and special events, he was awesome – miss that guy, miss that Victoria – now this cities motto is Keep Victoria Boring
#62 Reality Check
No bank would write a mortgage contract, where they don’t have rights to revise terms as they wish.
No individual would decline the revision that benefits their debt addiction, at the cost of being forced to pay it all off, with a 30 day due notice.
#62 Reality Check
No bank would write a mortgage contract, where they don’t have rights to revise terms as they wish.
No individual would decline the revision that benefits their debt addiction, at the cost of being forced to pay it all off, with a 30 day due notice.
#64 The real Kip (Ret)
So the solution to this mortgage debt crisis is…more debt? Brilliant. What could go wrong?
>>>
ALWAYS!
Where have you been?
Have a GFC.
Have a Pandemic.
Whatever crisis you have, never waste the opportunity to load up on more debt.
Welcome to the world of no consequences. As a young child many moons ago we behaved knowing the alternative was a trip to the principals office for the strap. Now we can’t pay a mortgage back and nothing happens. The banks themselves are interfering with the necessary house price correction. We should be flooded with distress sales. Instead we have very few listings and rather high prices. Laws of nature being tampered with everyday. Just keep changing the rules so that everybody wins, nobody even has to try. Pony anyone?
135 Sail Away
Mmmm… bacon.
———————————————————–
at a bud’s ranch house conversing with a local Chilcotin friend, who never learned to read or write, when a waft of beautiful aroma hit us coming from some fresh bread being baked in the oven next to us. My friend looked at me and said … mmmm bakin. Got to love the locals … characters all.
#37 ‘Alois’ – I think you have missed the reality. The reality is this: the original terms of a VRM (variable rate mortgage) would have mentioned the fact that if interest rates increased then more of the monthly would go on interest, not principle. If rates continued to increase then eventually the actual payment itself would need to increase to cover the amount of interest owing each month. That is the danger inherent in a VRM.
The situation now is simple: those whose VRM payments have increased to the point they can’t pay can either 1) try to sell for whatever they can get & use that sum to pay down the sum they owe the bank/mortgage broker. Given the increase in interest rates, this could well mean they would still have an amount owing plus would no longer own the RE, which means they’d need to find somewhere else to live plus still have outstanding debt to pay. 2) they can ask the bank/broker to extend the amortization period. This increases their debt, but they remain in possession of their RE where they presumably live. 3) cease making payments, declare bankruptcy & lose the RE, their credit is shot & they still need to find somewhere else to live. The bank/broker sells the RE, applies it to the debt owing & quite possibly tries to collect any outstanding difference despite your declaration of bankruptcy.
Bottom line is, these folks can choose to throw in the towel. What they can’t do is wriggle out from under. One way or another, they are on the hook for that debt. As for the extension of the amortization period, that might eventually come under OFSI scrutiny. If OFSI decides it is too risky to permit the banks to extend amortization periods I’d imagine they’d take steps to limit or even take that option off the table. Then the over indebted are going to lose the RE & still have an outstanding debt to pay because they can’t make the monthly as it is.
Garth
Follow the US FED….they raise rates then we raise rates.
The FED are still behind in raising which will see a 50 basis point increase.
Eventually we will raise rate to defend our Canadian Peso.
I don’t feel sorry for the house flippers who have bragged to me about making 100s of thousands of dollars every 6 months. Boo hoo…for holding all that inventory….
Dolce Vita,
Have you seen?
Volkswagen Italia got themselves an Instagram account.
You can (and maybe should) follow them…
@volkswagenitalia
Yup…Volkswa Genitalia!
Let’s call these re-amortizations for what they are: debt re-structuring. In corporate finance world this would be considered a credit event, with negative implications on the borrower’s rating. Might even constitute a technical default. I think you would get paid out on a credit default swap on the borrower in that scenario.
Meanwhile, we just had a major Canadian bank re-structure 1/4 its entire residential mortgage portfolio. Can someone please tell when was the last time that happened?
I’m waiting…
One wonders if non bank lenders can do the same for their loans.
Fishermen & Pirates like it when there’s “Blood in the Water”, as long as its not their own.” There’s money to be made.
I did some research on reusable rockets.
And I found this.
Sailo, our in house rocket scientist may find it interesting.
A long time ago, years before Elon Musk reached for the stars with his Space X project, a young man had his own childhood dream about a journey into space. Fly Rocket Fly tells the fantastic story of German astrophysicist Lutz Kayser who developed the world’s first private space company. He did this under the curious and concerned eyes of secret services around the world. A compelling documentary adventure that reads like a film script.
1975, Lutz Kayser and a dedicated group of engineers have big plans. They are working together on a missile technology based on affordable materials. They set up OTRAG (Orbital Transport and Rockets Inc.), the world’s first private space travel company. But Kayser has a problem: he is not allowed to test his rockets in Europe. His search for a suitable development location leads him to then dictator of Zaire, Mobutu Sese Seko. Mobutu agrees with Kayser’s plans, but the international security services are not on board. After all, since the Second World War no-one wants to see any German rockets being launched. Yet Kayser signs a contract between OTRAG and Zaire in which he can make unlimited use of 100,000 km² of territory to launch and test his rockets. This creates a lot of tension between a troubled outside world and the German rocket scientists. With fascinating archive material, private videos and interviews, director Oliver Schwehm tells this crazy story as a true political thriller full of adventure
“Too many buyers rolled the dice, went cheap, and lost. Along the way their avarice and bad choices helped escalate real estate and bring us to this moment.
Should we have sympathy?”
Sympathy yes but also a recognition that fighting inflation is going to hurt. It is especially going to hurt people with a lot of debt.
19 Jacob on 03.06.23 at 3:37 pm
Ginger cats are amazing
And generally speaking cats are very affectionate too, and will love you a lot if you love them back and take good care of them.
———————-
Bang on.
“And in the end, the love you get is equal to the love you give”.
Applies to humans, too.
Who else had to look up the word traipsing? Be honest.
Shrimp is a cutie.
Sympathy? For the Ukrainians getting shot at, and the Russians as well, sure. Turks and Syrians in the 10s of thousands dead or now homeless, yes.
FOMO suburbanite Canadian dummies who are their own worst enemy – nope. Unfortunate for them rather than slashing the loss, they’re all too weak to admit wrong and will be paying the banks until the end of time. Hint: the banks never lose.
On the bright side, they’ve secured dreamy sticks, vinyl and gyproc shacks in Milton where they are free to only drive to Tim’s, Loblaws, Costco and the jobs they hate. GO CANADA.
26 jess on 03.06.23 at 4:06 pm
“the ONLY thing that brings prosperity to all is competition”
?
Is Lack of Competition Strangling the U.S. Economy?
The troubling effect of industry consolidation and other forces on productivity, wages, and income inequality by
David Wessel
From the Magazine (March–April 2018) https://hbr.org/2018/03/is-lack-of-competition-strangling-the-u-s-economy
———————-
Good points.
Biden is continuing Trumps MAGA theme.
Almost 400 billion green backs in subsidies to shield American companies from overseas competition.
7,500 per car goes to Tesla and other cars assembled in the States.
37 Alois
“Cannot the mortgaged homeowner claim ” breach of
contract”..?”
——————————————————
It’s the homeowner who is in breach of contract by not being able to meet the terms as set out. Lots of fine print!
Google “invitation to treat”
Not quite, they created the excessive demand with leverage on the backs of savers, nonetheless I do thank them for the stampede they will create when they exit.
There is no excessive demand. At the moment 13,000 new condos are for sale in Toronto alone. You kids need a new narrative. – Garth
So, what we are saying is – the next time a PM/PM candidate/or politician says they WANT to make homes cheaper..
.. is that we should demand that “extend amortizations” get banned?
#66 dave on 03.06.23 at 6:34 pm
Why isnt Canada a Super Power
—
35M people are insufficient by an order of magnitude.
Did they not listen to Gartho and diversify among Bikes, Babes and Balanced Portfolios?
Was Smoking Man paid heed – stash JD in the backyard for the lean times?
—-
All planned out. 2020 was the training period. ONLINE shopping only. No need for workers. Robots will pick and pack your order.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/walmart-set-to-close-all-stores-in-portland-amid-record-breaking-retail-theft/ar-AA18dIJp
Walmart Set to Close All Stores in Portland amid Record-Breaking Retail Theft
Companies shuttering stores in Portland has become increasingly common. Last year a clothing store, Raind PDX, shut down operations with the company specifically citing the cost of doing business in the wake of historic retail theft.
“Small businesses (and large) cannot sustain doing business, in our city’s current state. We have no protection, or recourse, against the criminal behavior that goes unpunished,” a letter posted on the company’s store read. “Our city is in peril.”
The closures, which will result in nearly 600 employees being laid of
In a similar vein, Nike and Cracker Barrel locations closed in 2022 with companies citing similar reasons.
————-
Back to the A.I. and Chat Bots. Seen elsewhere:::
“Problem: Deep fake content makes the internet unreliable for information. For example: political figures can be made to look like they are saying things they never said. Too dangerous, could start a war. Nothing can be trusted on the internet!
Reaction: Digital IDs are proposed
Solution: ALL internet usage must be tied to an individual and tracked, traced, and recorded through their unique digital ID.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/real-estate-panel-of-experts-predict-home-prices-will-drop-1.1891755
Keep on dropping. When everyone believes it will drop, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.
@#92 Faron
“35M people are insufficient by an order of magnitude.”
+++
You are being too kind.
38 million vs 8 billion means Canada is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.
Our Liberal appeasement policies embracing a pabulum equality mindset renders Canada even more irrelevant in the eyes of our Allies and trading partners.
An international embarrassment.
In 50 years…..
When our population is bursting with 100 million angry (mostly) poor vs 7 billion angry (hungry and desperate) people…….. maybe we will be able to push above our weight.
With the Ukrainians burning through a years worth of US production of 155mm Howitzer shells every month.
They had to find ways to get the Russians to waste their artillery shells even faster….
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-company-sees-boom-market-fake-tanks-himars-2023-03-06/
Inflatable tanks and guns to draw out enemy fire and reveal themselves.
An old WWII trick.
#59 jess
It’s no joke.
>>>
According to Bloomberg, the single Jackson Township leak effectively erased the emissions gains from about half the 650,000 electric vehicles sold in the US last year.
#22 Limits to growth, or Physics laws explained to Financial Advisors or why WEST IS DOOMED on 03.06.23 at 3:49 pm
#35 Another Deckchair on 03.06.23 at 4:22 pm
********
Finally a real conversation to be had.
If you want a really deep dive on this – both energy and materials blindness – surf on over to Nate Hagens’ The Great Simplification podcast.
I recommend starting with Thomas Murphy on energy (espisode 18) and Simon Michaux (episode 19) on minerals blindness. Especially helpful for anyone in the oil patch or who thinks we can grow our way out of the trap we’ve laid for ourselves.
Couple this with the planetary overshoot macro problem and you start to get an idea of where we are headed.
And don’t forget to pour yourself a tall glass of Jevons Paradox.
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/
Nothing to see here folks…..
Move along.
Nothing to see….
https://www.burnabynow.com/bc-news/vancouver-based-wealth-one-bank-fined-for-anti-money-laundering-violations-6655687
A Bank in Vancouver fined $675,000.00 for not reporting suspicious transactions in violation of FINTRAC.
Wealth One Bank catered to mostly offshore Chinese clients.
@98 Longterm……
Isn’t Nate Hagen a pal of Art Berman’s? Jaguar adores Art Berman…..
“Dead Pledge”…. the true meaning of mortgage comes home to roost. But there’s more. If Tiff steps aside, the $C will plunge. I’m talking $200 for bacon and eggs at Dennys Waikiki. A Big Mac in London will be $25 by years end. I had lamb chops at a small cafe and paid $60 after exchange. Never mind the rich peoples problems, your imported fresh veg etc will treble.
Next winter will be a real bitch. The Loon is already weak. A weak unpredictable government has scared the shit out of international investors. Even rising oil isn’t doing what it used to. No one’s investing in our resources either. There’s no support for the Loon at all. Move up your USD holdings, it’s going to get rough.
Don’t forget that Trudeau is increasing your carbon tax 300% in the globalist press for change at all cost. BTW, does anyone have a good recipe for cat with kibbles? I’m suspecting it’s going in that direction. In U.K. where the faked up tax grab energy shortage has really taken hold people are sleeping on the floor in front of the fireplace with thier animals, like they did 500 years ago……
Until foreign buyers were banned they used to take up the slack when the Loon cratered, they got to buy everything on sale at a big discount. This time around Trudeau has closed that loophole where retired Brits would Canada as cheap as Mexico. Not anymore, Trudeaus pulled the rug out. Of course there’s more bad news, but…I pity you. Enough for today. Every scandal is worse than the last. Tomorrows another day. Todays news in Canada is shocking. I’m surprised people aren’t marching in the streets. Oh wait, they are. It’s just not being reported on….
‘Everything is data related these days’.
What data? Specifics please.
1. CPI continues to be higher than the pathetic nominal interest rates. Real inflation of necessities aka food, rents is double that.
This continues to be strongly inflationary.
A reminder that we had periods of CPI at 8 %, real inflation of necessities double that with rates at 2-3 %!
When are we going to see positive real rates (which is what you have if you are fighting inflation) in order to compensate for that?
2. Hot job market drives inflationary pressure.
3. We have zero growth. In fact when we measure the real inflation, not the massaged ‘preferred’ CPI this translates into economic contraction.
All of the above is somehow sold as ‘recovery’ while in reality it is the manifestation of a prolonged severe inflationary depression.
That is expressed in shrinking real consumption, severely reduced standard of living and this is not even accounting for the idiotic policies of energy restrictions that have not hit us yet in it’s full force.
This is somehow accompanied by fear, gestapo type society suppression policies that have been enforced only in very difficult times in human history and only with the intent to retain and maintain control.
So we are clearly facing some severe constraints and restrictions and some very challenging times and I see it hard to enforce optimistic view of the future given the present.
Whether the bankers and their robbing of savers and retirees through inflation are just opportunistic vs. main drivers of the current inflation crisis is yet to be seen but their competence and more importantly integrity is severely compromised in my view.
The very fact that they focus on the debtors and their ability to repay loans when determining the cost of money vs. the cost of money being the premium that savers demand and by not enforcing strongly positive real rates at times of alarming runaway inflation shows that something is very wrong in ‘central banking’.
They increasingly keep looking like shamans, charlatans and incompetents, snake oil salesmen that hide between the smoke and mirrors in their magic tricks which when ends will leave the majority with empty pockets.
The ‘dot plot’, ‘forward guidance’, ‘transitory inflation’ (remember that?) is just utter BS mumbo jumbo and our geniuses have not even mastered half of the skills of the fed in that department, they can not even copy it, it is that pathetic.
I am sick and tired of their ‘monitoring of situation’ and ‘data dependence’.
Buzz words, no substances and very wrong policies.
“#39 gattaca on 03.06.23 at 4:31 pm
Via BNN Bloomberg:
We’re just being a lot more frugal and on top of our finances,” said Peter Esper, a mortgage broker in the Toronto area who was hit hard by interest-rate increases after relying on variable-rate mortgages…. The payments on the home he shares with his wife and two kids went up by nearly $3,000 a month, while the difference between mortgage costs and what he was charging in rent on the four condos he owned as investment properties ballooned to a collective $4,000 a month in negative cash flow. Now he’s sold two of those condos and plans to list the third, while also canceling his cable TV package and opting to brew coffee at home rather than buying it at Tim Hortons.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-higher-interest-rates-cause-borrowers-pain-1.1891637”
So this guy, a mortgage broker, couldn’t see the inherent risk in financing not only his own home but his FOUR investment properties with variable rates?
You just have to shake your head. How many more like him? As the Bloomberg article says, this is a “national margin call”.
Leaving the same people that caused the inflation in first place in charge of fighting it, while knowing that every policy in their ‘toolkit’ that they employed in the past was actually intended to fuel the inflation is risky, it could be the very definition of insanity of doing the same thing and expecting different result.
Having small excitements and side affects like situations with inflation of necessities – food and rents in the 12-20 % range, while banks charge banking fees and pay close to zero rates on chequing accounts adds insult to injury. This while banks report record profits.
In Europe inflation rages and actually started further increasing in France and other countries recently while EU CB is stuck with their pathetic ‘monitoring’ .
At least they lie less about their true inflation, we have to give them that.
#45 Larry1 on 03.06.23 at 4:59 pm
So my 5 years at 3.38% fixer is up for renewal. The lender offered me 5 year variable at prime – 1% so I went with that. I guess we’re at the peak of the rate cycle. Time will tell
——————————————————————
Just as I figured they would do.
Today’s blog subject caused me to geek right out and see just how much in trouble we might be. Turned out to be a really really bad idea really fast.
So, 2 trillion in mortgage debt and 722 billion in other debt representing $1.84 for every dollar earned.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/debt-income-ratio-statscan-1.6682552
OK, so 36% or 67 cents going to service other debt and 64% or $1.17 to service mortgages.
With rising rates, that $1.84 is going to increase significantly over time. Let’s not forget general inflation adding to the misery.
So…is this bad?
Well, on to the OECD site for a comparison with the other countries….
https://data.oecd.org/hha/household-debt.htm#indicator-chart
Love this chart…select any category and we suck in any of them.
All right the way I see this are two choices….
1./ A bottle of JD, a pistol and one bullet. Same end result just way faster
2./ Run to somewhere else, just not the countries above the 185 mark on the chart recording household debt
I know which one I’m picking…
I’m guessing the low supply narrative won’t be a thing much longer. What a mess this is, we saw what happened in states but clearly the people in charge said, nah that can’t happen here, we’re special and out banking system is so much better, or its too big to fail, blah blah blah. I feel bad for some caught up in this mess, but so many of out leaders should be held accountable, they knew that this could be really bad for whole country. Canadians net worth about to go down the toilet.
#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.06.23 at 9:45 pm
The US, at the moment the sole superpower, did not get there out of an angry citizenry. It also isn’t opposed to 7 billion non-americans. You are describing a xenophobia that works against the formation of alliances — essential features of superpowers.
The other essential? A giant, advanced, military.
Your tale about center-left, big el liberalism doesn’t ring true.
#99 fartz
See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil – nothing to see here lol – move along
Snippets from excellent article in this morning’s NP by Martin Pelletier who always has great analysis. Page FP4-
“Three factors affecting our currency that will hurt Canadians for years to come.
AN UNSTABLE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
A minority government plagued by never-ending scandals does little to instil confidence in foreign investors and our dollar.
SHORTER-TERM MORTGAGES
We think rising interest rates will have a much greater impact on Canadians than our American cousins.
ENERGY
Oil and gas once provided a huge support to our dollar. That has changed because of land-locking energy policies such as Bill C-69 as well as a lack of appetite from capital providers to be seen investing in higher-carbon-emitting projects like the oilsands.”
And this fascinating snippet:
“The average American worker produces US$73.70 of GDP value per hour worked compared to the average Canadian worker who produces just US$57.24, according to Our World in Data. Even more eye-opening is that our GDP per capita is still below 2010 levels in U.S. dollar terms. Let that sink in.”
Fortunately for investors, the economy doesn’t always equal the stock market, so we think the heavily resource-weighted S&P/TSX composite index will outperform the tech-heavy S&P 500 in the years to come.”
ALL OF CANADA’S LAND PRICES ARE OUTRAGEOUS TO US. THEY ARE INDICATIVE OF SPECULATORS NOT BASED ON ECONOMICS.
WE NEVER WASTE A DIME ON OVERPRICED LAND ANYWHERE.
CANADA IS AT THE TOP OF OUR LIST TO NOT INVEST IN. POLITICAL GONGSHOW AT ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT ACROSS CANADA.
https://www.riskconcern.com/post/which-canadian-province-has-the-cheapest-land-land-prices-in-which-canadian-province-are-riskiest#:~:text=Ontario%20(%24%2011%2C815%20per%20acre,and%20Nova%20Scotia%20(%242%2C332).
@#108 Faron’s foreign fallacies
“The other essential? A giant, advanced, military.”
+++
We were discussing Canada’s irrelevance on the worldwide grand scheme of things and you morph into xenophobia and US military might?
OK
The US is no longer a “sole” superpower.
Or did you forget about China’s population, economy and military.
As for “essential” US military might….
I guess no one told Vietnam? Afghanistan?
About the US military omnipotence?
When you’re an elephant swinging a hammer….the mosquitos will still be able to bite.
The only country that has benefitted directly for the US military buildup has been….Canada.
Ignoring its NATO commitments while endlessly squabbling among its own politicians for decades… whether to buy, cancel, buy, cancel ….helicopters, planes and ships.
Canada continues to sink deeper into international irrelevance during the Trudeau reign with his insistence on drivel such as “people kind”, a neutered govt bureaucracy focused on witch-hunts, endless colonialist blame and finger pointing, forgotten aboriginal cemetery’s on church grounds rebranded as “mass graves” so that our Liberal leadership could shovel more money off the taxpayer dump truck to make it all go away….
(Please name any other country in the world that has dragged out this blame game for as long and wide in scope and taxpayer money.)
On and on and on went the endless Liberal blame game as the world watched in dismay and bemusement.
Canada has lost it’s collective mind.
Unless we are signing trade agreements to supply raw logs, raw gas, ore, wheat and pork…..
No one else cares.
Canada’s Fed continues it’s delusionary belief that our opinion matters on the world stage.
It doesnt.
#65 Steven Rowlandson
Evidently people learned nothing from 2008 or the movie the Big Short. Jack up rates and let the chips fall where they may and if greater fools get financially cremated that is their hard luck. They are all over 21 and responsible for their actions.
>>>
I just want to remind everyone…
If you are looking for The Big Short on Netflix, you can find it under the Comedy section.
That’s right.
Under Comedy.
COMEDY!
COME DY!
“David McCandless’s visual blog Information is Beautiful deduced that, while taking creative licence into account, The Big Short was 91.4% accurate when compared to real-life events, calling it a “shockingly truthful film” with “very little dramatization or fakery.”
Comedy.
Ha Ha Ha.
>> I’m stupid on 03.06.23 at 2:56 pm
How can amortization be extended past 30 years? I thought that’s the max amount you can get especially with an insured mortgage. What am I missing?
—–
This is what I came to post… interesting how rules can be bent when the right person is asking? Not sure how I feel about that.
Riskier private mortgages have risen by 72%. Now they fear defaults- The Toronto Star
#107 JOE MAMA on 03.06.23 at 11:23 pm
If you are talking about the unearned, and undeserved windfall some gained just by sleeping in their overpaid hovels;that is great; their comeuppance is overdue.
As a famous blogger often writes:
“we did it to ourselves”
Collectively no simpathy. Individually a disaster. Young people suffering.
#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.23 at 8:45 am
Australia, New Zealand, Greenland et al,and of course the poster child of violence and civil right abuses South Africa.
But you know that, and just as usual want to be the gadfly.
Fed swaps reprice to favor 50bp hike in March over 25bp.
#119 Don
I believe that there will be more than one of these 50bp hikes this year, the talk is a terminal rate of 6.25% and that may be pushed higher yet.
The fed has lots of room to go as their population is not heavily indebted as ours and can take the addition hikes.
I wonder how long before we raise again as BoC does not want to lose “credibility”, or will the BoC be consistently inconsistent with their messaging.
It is hard to imagine with all the highly educated people they have working for them that any person with half a brain can out predict them on the rate hikes.
Lots of posters on this blog could be employed by the BoC as their predictions have been way more accurate than what has come from our leadership.
#119 Don on 03.07.23 at 10:22 am
Fed swaps reprice to favor 50bp hike in March over 25bp.
Yes, but our central bankers already announced ‘on hold’ apparently prematurely.. again….
#92 Faron
35M people are insufficient by an order of magnitude
——————————————————————————————————–
I agree.
It’s always been puzzling to me as to why the Canadian government historically never looked at this underpopulation issue with any degree of seriousness.
After all, to have a viable economy, and maintain some degree of functional efficiency across this monumentally vast landscape, surely the requirement of a critical mass had to be considered.
Right?
Why was the federal government’s immigration policy from 100 years ago or more never geared to this seemingly obvious necessity?
Without an adequate population base, you cannot justify the creation and maintenance of an efficient coast to coast infrastructure, nor can you ever build an economy with enough value added manufacturing based industries in order to maintain long term economic self sufficiency and competitiveness.
Hence, the provincial backwater we live in.
Unrealized potential.
“Fed swaps reprice to favor 50bp hike in March over 25bp.”
This would be the right thing to do. But, will our BoC follow or continue to cater to the cartels?
DELETED
#77 Linda on 03.06.23 at 7:26 pm
#37 ‘Alois’ – I think you have missed the reality.
================================
Thanks Linda for the well written email.
I vividly recall the ugly 1980’s and 20% interest rates and RE values tanking. There was jingle mail and RE took huge losses.
Here in BC…it was acknoweldged the situation was dire. EXPO 86 was simply a tactic to open BC up to offshore investment to save the economy. Its been RE driven since then.
My previous email was simply postulating. The actions by lenders trying to save their side of the deal. What happens if rates have to go even higher ???
I would suggest borrowers ,especially younger ones, may look at the spread sheets, have no interest in any mortgage past say 30 years, and cut their losses.
One would suggest a 30 year mortgage parallels peoples retirement time line, ie that after 30 years they have an asset that is paid for(RE) and part of their retirement fund.
I highly doubt they want an extended mortgage into their 70 and 80’s, as this would eat into their savings.
In other words..the lenders have no more wriggle room.
I’m going to sandblast a car part, so I opened a new bag of sand. What do you suppose I found buried in the sand?
Tiff’s head!
#66 dave on 03.06.23 at 6:34 pm
Why isnt Canada a Super Power:
– One of the largest Oil Reserves
– Largest Natural Gas Reserves
– Mining…huge potential unexplored
– Forestry – World class
– Farming – Top Grade
Yet we are a whimpy country that only exists because of protection from alliances.
Cant Canada do BETTER?
________________________
We share a border with the planet’s undisputed economic superpower, and yet here we are………
I see lots of people on Tiff’s case again (or still).
They get very hung up on what Tiff says, or rather, what they think he says. People are simple, they want yes/no,
black/white answers. They can’t grasp concepts, or matters of degree.
Think Covid. People were either hiding in their
basement, or heading out to the nightclub. No grasp of
taking a measured approach and lowering overall risk.
What has Tiff said? He’s told us he wants inflation at 2%. He said he would front load rates (done). He’s said he will pause and reflect (He will). Then he will re-assess according to the data to see what is warranted.
Of course he watches the fed. Not just for the rate hike, but for their inflation numbers, indicating more inflation heading our way due to the large trade we do with the USA. That’s called “data”.
Tiff wants a soft landing. Wishful thinking? Maybe. He’ll
watch our mortgage numbers and GDP. That’s called “data” too.
Quite simple to understand. More difficult to predict.
But I will give it a try.
No hike tomorrow. 0.25 in April, then twice more over the remaining 5 dates in 2023. 2024 who knows.
re: #126 Wrk.dover on 03.07.23 at 11:57 am
I’m going to sandblast a car part, so I opened a new bag of sand. What do you suppose I found buried in the sand?
Tiff’s head! +++
This gasbag real estate market isn’t Tiff’s fault and the inflation issue is all over the western world. Seems like everyone wants to blame him or the banks, but that’s BS. Those who chose to purchase overvalued properties without educating themselves on the repercussions of what would happen if rates climbed have nobody to blame but themselves. Anybody with a google finger could have pulled up historical rate charts and played with payment calculation tools. And people like Evan Siddall who was head of CMHC warned everyone, everyday in the media. But peeps preferred to drink the Koolaid and stayed glued to HGTV, etc.
Don’t blame Tiff. He isn’t the only one involved in BOC decision making, and he is trying to land a situation similar to a 747, one engine out, with explosives in the cargo hold. Or would like the job and responsibility?
p.s. you on that plane, and you’re sitting in the emergency row….
#103 Balmuto
At my last place of employment there were probably twenty people with multiple properties and one family has 13 on the go, no lie.
Also here in BC they are Government is basically shutting mills down so there will be no more forestry here, Canfor will be pulling out fairly quick as Pattison is no fool. No person wants to work in an industry that is unstable and now pays less than light manufacturing.
https://www.merrittherald.com/aspen-planers-merritt-remains-shut-down-reopening-date-uncertain/
https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/bc-logging-firm-wants-to-avoid-cutting-old-growth-but-province-said-it-must-pay
I could list more but one should see where this is going, mining will be next.
“The average American worker produces US$73.70 of GDP value per hour worked compared to the average Canadian worker who produces just US$57.24, according to Our World in Data. Even more eye-opening is that our GDP per capita is still below 2010 levels in U.S. dollar terms. Let that sink in.”
$20 CAD raise for everyone PRONOTO and this GDP value issue is solved!
https://web.archive.org/web/20090721113733/http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/envhist/radium.html
the painters of dials were painted as having syphilis
…Amelia’s body was exhumed on October 16, 1927. An investigation confirmed that her bones were highly radioactive. Clearly, Maggia had not died of syphilis,
The Radium Girls
Mass Media and Environmental conflictChapter 8
Mass Media & Environmental Conflict
Mark Neuzil and Bill Kovarik
Walter Lippmann, editor of the New York World newspaper.
…”Alice Hamilton had carefully laid out a strategy in the previous months with the editor of one of the nation’s most powerful newspapers of the time, the New York World. An avowedly liberal newspaper founded by Joseph Pulitzer, the World championed public health causes as part of its mission to “never lack sympathy with the poor [and] always remain devoted to the public welfare.”30 Hamilton’s long-time friend was World editor Walter Lippmann; he had already worked with Hamilton, ensuring that coverage of the Ethyl leaded gasoline controversy in 1925 included both sides of the story, including large amounts of copy from university scientists critical of Standard Oil.31
All agreed to wait for Hamilton’s signal, and Hamilton and Lippmann stayed in close touch during those weeks in July 1928. On July 16, as the letter went out, Lippmann wrote in an editorial: “In many aspects the disease is surrounded by mystery which only an expert, impartial and national agency can remove… clearly this is a task for the Public Health Service.”41
Other endorsements followed, including one from Mrs. Franklin D. Roosevelt, a board member with Hamilton on the National Consumers League. Surgeon General Cumming agreed to the conference and called interested parties together on December 20, 1928.
The conference agreed that two committees should be set up: one to investigate existing conditions and a second to recommend the best known means of protection for workers. A Public Health Service official, James P. Leake, commended the Consumers League and others who had worked on behalf of public health and worker safety. “By focusing public attention on some of these horrible examples,” Leake said, “the broader problems of disease prevention… can be greatly reduced. It was so in the tetra-ethyl lead work.” He added: “The martyrdom of a few may save many.”42
…”The Consumers League and the news media as represented by Lippmann may have served the democratic process. Other dial painters from the era survived, and those who worked at radium paint factories in later years were better protected. Goldmark said, “The hazards of another lethal industrial poison were overcome, and the democratic process of government by informed public opinion was again justified.
Oh Canada…We stand on debt for you!
What to believe…who to believe.
Geo political reorganization is the new foundation.
Well explained here
https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/bank-canada-seen-taking-foot-164003308.html
As a millennial renter who was priced out of owning a home faster than I could save a down payment in 2020-2022, I have little sympathy for anyone who overspent and doesn’t have basic financial literacy.
I don’t feel bad for people who gambled and lost. No different than going to the casino or investing in Bitcoin. You made your bed, now you get to lay in it.
With thanks to you, in part, I started managing my families investments in 2016. I’m grateful for this everyday. Of course I’m also thankful to be living in Canada and not some other third-rate country. Thanks Garth.
#131 millmech on 03.07.23 at 1:22 pm
#103 Balmuto
At my last place of employment there were probably twenty people with multiple properties and one family has 13 on the go, no lie.
Also here in BC they are Government is basically shutting mills down so there will be no more forestry here, Canfor will be pulling out fairly quick as Pattison is no fool. No person wants to work in an industry that is unstable and now pays less than light manufacturing.
https://www.merrittherald.com/aspen-planers-merritt-remains-shut-down-reopening-date-uncertain/
https://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/bc-logging-firm-wants-to-avoid-cutting-old-growth-but-province-said-it-must-pay
I could list more but one should see where this is going, mining will be next.
*************
Companies are shuttering there operations due in some cases to the lack of quality fibre. But A LOT of premium logs are being exported including those to US operations and with the logs go the sawmill and supporting jobs. Doesn’t Patterson also have a fish cannery business, how did the lack of onshore local canneries affect the small coastal towns? We need to break up the big boys and have more players in the game. We could chat about the implications of the Shaw/Rogers merger…which should result in lower consumer prices….LOL.
One or two mills in Port Alberni are shuttering. Not a good thing for many small communities who rely on this sector. Now mostly retirement towns on the Island, good for Health care professionals.
#136 Sarah on 03.07.23 at 2:23 pm
As a millennial renter who was priced out of owning a home faster than I could save a down payment in 2020-2022, I have little sympathy for anyone who overspent and doesn’t have basic financial literacy.
I don’t feel bad for people who gambled and lost. No different than going to the casino or investing in Bitcoin. You made your bed, now you get to lay in it.
********
Lucky you were priced out before you could buy.
#147 Observer on 03.06.23 at 2:51 pm
#142 Anna on 03.06.23 at 2:25 pm
#135 Sail Away
So brave of you to go to a grocery store and buy pieces of the body of an exploited abused animal. That’s really impressive /s
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
I see you’ve encountered this blog’s resident sociopath, or at least the most repulsive one.
——————————————————-
Who is the sociopath, the guy who likes bacon or the one who calls people sociopaths for liking bacon?
Answer is pretty obvious.
Zehrs had 2kg packs of thick cut bacon on for $8 last week. I bought 4 packs. What a deal. Should have bought more.
Didn’t realize peameal bacon wasn’t readily available in BC. Might move back to Ontario for that reason alone.
noise?
Who is Trying to Interfere in Canadian Elections?
https://www.tvo.org/theagenda
and several other countries
along with usa russia china saudi’s ,s Africa Israel
#139 DON
“Lucky you were priced out before you could buy.”
LoL!!! Roger dat!