Yesterday we discussed how to finance a car. As expected, the manly men showed up to brag about their vehicular prowess and greasemonkey smarts while others piled on to revel in how cheap they are. Sigh. Those who quietly lease, with pre-paid maintenance, no depreciation angst, nary a breakdown and more dog time wisely stood back and let the testo flow. It’s quite the sight. Like line dancing.
Regular addicts will also recall comments here about the current housing market, speaking of money and hormones. Anecdotal evidence of late has been of sales inching higher in the last two months with stuffed open houses, some multiple bidding contests for nice digs and price declines being gently reversed.
Wait for March stats, we said. Let’s parse the numbers then.
It’s started. No data out of the mighty GTA yet. Or the second-biggest market in the land (Montreal). But we now know what’s happening in the other dominant regional burgs – Vancouver and Calgary. And it seems we got it right.
In YVR listings remain thin as sellers hold out for perfection, so sales levels are running far below those of a year ago (down 47%). But it’s notable that a big jump happened between January and last month, as the number of deals swelled by almost 77%. Hmmm.
Says Head Realtor Wizard Andrew Lis: “While we continue to expect home price trends to show year-over-year declines for a few more months, current data and market activity suggest pricing is firming up. In fact, some leading indicators suggest we may see modest price increases this spring, particularly if sales activity increases and mortgage rates hold steady.”
The board’s Frankenumber for all props is now $1.123 million. That’s an increase of 1.1% over January – less than fifteen grand, but an annualized 13% hike. Detached homes are sitting at $1.813 million, for 12% less on the year but up almost 1% on the month.
Conclusion: inconclusive. But we know this: while sales are lower than a year ago when mortgages were 3% (or less) prices are rising, not falling. Unless it’s a fluke (could be), it suggests the valuation plop bottomed last month. Will Toronto numbers show the same?
And what of Cowtown?
Homes are notoriously cheaper in Calgary, and lately a profit gush from the oil patch has not only papered the provincial government with spendable funds but lifted the prospects of the entire province. Is this being reflected in housing?
“While higher lending rates are impacting sales activity as expected,” says the realtors’ chief economist, “we are seeing a stronger pullback in new listings, keeping supply levels low and supporting some stronger-than-expected monthly price gains.”
It’s true here as in Van. People are reluctant to sell, likely thinking a boom is returning and they’ll scoop more later. So both sales and listings are down compared to a year ago. Only two months of inventory is available at the moment.
As a result, the benchmark price is up 2% in a month – big news. However, at $635,900 it still sits below the peak recorded last May. So the question is similar here. With median prices down almost 15% in January, was that the bottom?
Recall the latest CREA stats showed a national house price plop of 23% in January. That was the fastest decline in Canadian history, happening in a mere 10 months. As you know, it corresponded with a macho Bank of Canada raising its key rate seven times, for a $1,700% increases from one quarter of one percent to four and a half. Also unprecedented.
But now the CB has paused. Five-year, fixed-rate mortgages have stabilized. The Big Banks are offering money at just a titch over 5%. Yes, that’s twice what it was a year ago, but a huge bargain compared to years past when inflation was also an issue. The longer we stay at this level, the more it becomes normalized. In that context, economists now think our central bank will hold off on any more rate moves until the end of the year.
So, put it together. Big pent-up demand after a year when sales cratered by about half. Stable, not-entirely-crazy mortgage rates. Monetary policy changes on hold. Low inventory levels. And prices running from 10% to 40% cheaper than a year ago, depending on the market you’re in. How can this not be a formula for more activity as cash buyers, mover-uppers, higher-income buyers and folks with cheap mortgages to port come out of hibernation?
Yes, house prices are still insane. And, yup, this may just push that fabled Day of Reckoning out further into the future. Meanwhile governments are clearly failing in their feckless plan to make real estate cheaper by building more houses which will cost the same. Politicians have again avoided doing those bold things that actually tame the valuation of residential homes.
Seems clear where this is headed. Sadly.
About the picture: “We lost our ‘Shola” (means rain forest in Tamil) on Feb. 23 this year,” writes Pieter, “after 16 precious years; always a faithful patient companion, much like your blog. Her eyes were magical, when doubts or troubles arose, they were like a steading force, one had to only peer into them to feel grounded. She grew old gracefully. She kept on selflessly giving, so much like your advice. As faithful daily reader I thank you for your daily companionship.”
142 comments ↓
As long as we don’t see mass layoffs then housing prices should stabilize. That being said I still think we dip into a recession with the automotive sector being the main driver.
Simple…
Live in your leased EV…
Hey Garth, was hoping you could touch on banks savings rates. We often talk about high inflations in the 70’s and 80’s but this was partially offset with banks offering savings rates as high as those interest rates. Do you see banks jacking up saving rates? And if not, why is it different this time?
That car day experiment went about how I figured it would have, especially with folks commenting how their car needed tires and brakes eventually! Brand loyalty with little factual synopsis like todays opening paragraph concludes.
At my local garage-station (sic) the hang out drones there have concluded that blue pick-ups are the most dependable, but to my surprise that never came up here yesterday!
Justin Trudeau went all in on China a decade ago – Terry Glavin
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/terry-glavin-4
The China alignment strategy served the Canada’s Laurentian Elite (Liberals) very well, they could then undermine the growing prosperity of Western Canada and try to stay independent of the American orbit.
Could you imagine the level of prosperity should Stephen Harper have continued to make Canada into an energy superpower, LNG distribution hubs on both Coasts, billions upon billions of miss priced energy now flowing to the Americans….could have been ours.
The USA – They Drank our Milkshake! – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_hFTR6qyEo
There is no ‘Laurentian Elite’. Not to be used again on the blog. – Garth
“Conclusion: inconclusive.”, is about right.
Market gridlock due to low listings is what’s happening now, does that mean it continues? Depends on the landing, but indications are for further Fed tightening and it’s inexorable effect on BoC rates and a possible recession. Bond market seems to think so.
I know, I know, no recession with such high rates of employment. But there are cracks here and there; lots of those job openings are to back-fill for boomers throwing in the towel, not for young job seekers trying to pay rent or buy a house.
3 Stephen
“Do you see banks jacking up saving rates? And if not, why is it different this time?”
———————————————————–
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/interest-rates-analysis-1.6764143
You can always try one of those high-interest savings ETFs Stephen. Currently around 4%.
Shola was a good girl. Very handsome pupster. 16 years! She had good genes too. Thanks for sharing Pieter
So Real Estate rules once again…Guess people have been miscalculating for 15 years. Nothing will kill this beast.
Can you imagine how much Richer you would be if only you bought real estate.
Those who quietly lease, with pre-paid maintenance, no depreciation angst, nary a breakdown and more dog time wisely stood back and let the testo flow.
————–
Garth,
I’d be tempted to leave it alone, but your arguments make no sense AT ALL.
Pre-paid maintenance: A brand new car only needs oil changes and maybe one tranny fluid change in the first few years. Even if you’re paying the dealer to do it this is not a big factor.
Depreciation angst: The depreciation is built into your lease payment whether you choose to angst about it or not. And they don’t error on the side of low depreciation.
Nary a breakdown: The car doesn’t know if you lease-it or bought it. I’ve not had a breakdown in a car with less than 100km.
Dog Time: The only difference between leasing and buying a car coming back from a lease is you have to spend more time filling out paperwork every 3-4 years and I have to spend more time selling it every 3-4 years. If you’re reasonable with asking price you can sell a used car within a week and within 2 or 3 people looking at it. Or if that scares you then just take the trade in value at the dealer if they give you a good deal so they can make the commission on the sale.
You seem to always be comparing leasing /buying a brand new car to buying an old beater that needs constant attention. The sweet spot is in between the two where it runs like new, but you don’t have to pay the massive depreciation that happens in the first 3 years.
“Yesterday we discussed how to finance a car. As expected, the manly men showed up to brag about their vehicular prowess and greasemonkey smarts while others piled on to revel in how cheap they are. Sigh. Those who quietly lease, with pre-paid maintenance, no depreciation angst, nary a breakdown and more dog time wisely stood back and let the testo flow.”
———
Oh, the leasers bragged just as much.
Perspective about bragging vs. wisdom just depends on which side you identify with.
Yogism #57: “My mind was made up on a lower level”.
The Lockdown Files (British Papers)
Get heavy with police’ to enforce lockdown, Matt Hancock told ministers
Can we lock up ‘pub hooligan’ Nigel Farage? asked Hancock’s team
The next month, as concern mounted about importing cases of the virus from abroad, Boris Johnson said it was “superb” that two people had been fined £10,000 for returning from Dubai without quarantining.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
Of course…this whole thing was about POWER and had NOTHING TO DO WITH HEALTH…and that is why I REFUSED TO TAKE THE CLOT SHOT.
Something that anyone living in Vancouver knew, but no level of government was willing to look at it .
https://globalnews.ca/news/8158351/canada-revenue-agency-bc-luxury-homes-foreign-buyers/
Consumer insolvencies are up 33% year-over-year: https://www.thestar.com/business/2023/03/01/more-canadians-unable-to-pay-off-debts-amid-high-inflation-and-ever-increasing-interest-rates-new-report-finds.html
Using a HELOC as a piggy bank is easy when your rate is 1.9%. A little less so when it’s 5%.
#182 Wrk.dover on 03.02.23 at 1:59 pm
Needing a female flared nut for a hydraulic line on one of my custom projects, I went to NAPA this morning, and had to show the long time staff there, where the $2.00 item was in the stock room.
////////////////////////
The last time I saw a Female Flared Nut, it was former BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark…
M48BC
If governments are trying to make housing cheaper, the feds idiotic FHSA is only going to make it mor expensive. Everything the government does brings into question whether they are really as incompetent as they seem, or have a hidden agenda.
I don’t just mean housing policy, but pretty much every policy .
#178 4 out of 3 people find math hard on 03.02.23 at 1:02 pm
76 Sail Away: I was a bit dissapointed in the presentation because it lacked specific information about Master Plan Three
—-
Because there is no such document! A non-fraudulent company would have done one or more of the following:
1) released a new, working product.
2) released a credible, well researched document outlining their proposed way forward or at least showing what they propose is possible.
3) Followed up or finalized previous claims. “Master Plan 2” bore no fruit. None!
Cybertruck is still AWOL (despite raking in hundreds of $millions in “deposits”). Roadster? AWOL (despite raking in $millions in deposits). Robotaxis (feel like I’m being trolled just using the term). AWOL. FSD. AWOL. 100 semis to Pepsico? 63 are AWOL, the rest keep breaking down. Advanced battery tech? AWOL. humanoid robot? AWOL.
You are being had. Elon has cashed out $billions. Insiders to Tesla, further $billions. Late cycle TSLA shareholders directly transferred $ to Elon and will almost certainly not see it back.
A word about infills. Infills are not affordable housing. Tearing down an old house and building higher density new houses does not add as much to supply as building the same housing in a green field. You are basically wasting an older house.
The new owner’s infill cost is the price of building plus the price of purchasing and tearing down an older house.
DELETED (Anti-immigration)
A quick relationship and dog training tip:
Every morning, greet each member with joyful accolades, pats and appreciation- this makes everyone happy, including you, and sets the mood to ‘cheerful’.
It’s free and useful. Like Youtube. And fixing your own car.
We should all pitch in and buy Garth a fire hydrant.
Never going to be convinced leasing is wiser.
I have 40 years of experience to back it up.
What a joke 1 drive 4 beautiful vehicles for the price of one.
I’m telling Greta. – Garth
Flop Drops.
Did you hear about the garage that sold for a million dollars?
Well, they say life is about choices, among other options at the moment you can buy a house that needs bulldozing for 1.2 million, or do what these guys did and buy an infill house.
The details…
Original ask 999
Assessment 1.03
Just sold for 975k
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2745959/3126-E-2ND-AVENUE-Vancouver-BC/
So they got a detached house, one year old,for
what some people are paying for 2 bedroom condos.
Looks nicer on the inside than expected
Advantages?
Don’t need to pay maintenance fees or a lawnmower.
Disadvantages?
Don’t need to go looking for your neighbour, to say good morning, because you’ll probably have a communal toothbrush stand in your bathroom to save space…
M48BC
I’ll try to make this the last of the Elon bashing for a bit, Garth
Normalizing crash risk of partially automated vehicles under sparse data
This is a rigorous, peer reviewed study. Teslas are 11% more dangerous than human drivers. Again, the whole thing is a fraud. Like Enron, some frauds produce stuff but are frauds all the same.
Said it before will say it again, housing is a function of a few variables 1) Price 2) Rates and 3) Employment
First one has come down because the second one has gone up. The big unanswered question is what will happen to number 3 for the rest of the year?
My two cents – we are at full employment right now so I would say there is more downside risk then upside potential and with S&P 500 reporting lower net margins for the last 6 months they have two options raise prices and grow top line or cut staff and decrease bottom line… guess which one is faster and easier
Heard about a nice home that came up last week in my neck of the woods, for what I believed to be priced at $150,000.00 below fair market value, I heard they had over 80 showings, I suspect if the home was listed at true market value, the sellers would have avoided about 60 or 70 of these unfordable showing’s stomping through their lovely home.
What a scam for an agent to try and claim fame of gloating about getting so much over listing for their clients, agents like this think they get a gold feather in their hat, but at the same time, they are creating a nightmare for the honest agents trying to make a living.
The seller got seven offers and accepted what the home should have been priced and sold for in the first place. Sure, you get traffic, but the traffic you get cannot afford the home, but in their minds, they think they could have honestly afforded it. The agent should be fined and locked up for the weekend with only Hard Bread and cold water for their weekend meal.
Quote of the day: Integrity is telling the truth and honesty is telling the truth to others.
In spring time no rate increase by BoC
what a coincidence for housing market
market are pricing more Fed increases
5yca touched 3.7 … was not at this level since Nov 2022
And the latest of the last second economists wisdom:
After a transitory inflation that is not more transitory we are in a rolling recession. We are not in reflation. We are most closely to stagflation … you’re welcome to add your own ***flation word
#16 Flop… on 03.02.23 at 3:08 pm
#182 Wrk.dover on 03.02.23 at 1:59 pm
Needing a female flared nut for a hydraulic line on one of my custom projects, I went to NAPA this morning, and had to show the long time staff there, where the $2.00 item was in the stock room.
////////////////////////
The last time I saw a Female Flared Nut, it was former BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark…
M48BC
==============================
Sigh…
Remember the ugly 1990’s in BC when the Workers Paradise Party(aka B.C. NDP) had (4) premiers in 10 years…
Fast Ferries cost approx. $500 Million sold for pennies on the dollar…
The NDP logic?!?
….was people wanted a ferry to save maybe 1/2 hour off 2 hour ferry ride(BTW air traffic has been around for almost 100 years). Private sector faster ferries have gone broke.
https://www.timescolonist.com/local-news/bc-resident-spots-two-of-bcs-former-fast-ferries-in-egypt-5776369
Sigh…
We don’t want any stinkin’ facts, budgets and details..
Onward Worker’s Paradise !!!
As always with big purchases “caveat emptor” with housing imagine getting laid off and hoping to stretch that $500/week EI to cover a $7k mortgage payment!
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/02/inflation-dishes-up-another-nasty-surprise-eurozone-core-cpi-without-energy-spikes-to-record-services-cpi-spikes-to-record/
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/02/28/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-february-update-biggest-price-drops-now-in-phoenix-portland-las-vegas-san-francisco-seattle-denver-san-diego/
Way to soon to be calling any sort of bottom. Today looked up stats from Metro Van. Feb 2023 had over 1k more listings than Feb 2022. But yet sales were 47% less. Clearly some fence sitters jumped in and bought after bond prices dropped mid Jan, and Tiff said pause. I’m thinking many of them heard pause but thought rate drop soon. I really have a hard time believing there won’t be thousands struggling with payments as they renew from sub 2% mortage to 5% plus mortgages, spring market will be interesting and possibly scary for many imo.
As oft stated, I am not calling any bottom, top or middle. Stats are stats. Interpret them as you wish. – Garth
@Faron at #18
Can you repost, please? Your message seems to be obscured by a spittly frothy sort of substance.
Thx
So, if there is a spurt of inflation and the CBs move confidently to attempt to slow it while using confident language, the moral hazard becomes giant. Paper tells me that insolvencies are up 33+% YoY.
Moral hazard comes in thusly: if CBs are convincing in their messaging, then it becomes more likely that people will plan for a transient inflation spike and use credit to bridge the bump. If CBs fail at controlling the spike, then lending rates plus higher prices lead to credit stress. And here we are.
#30 Sail Away on 03.02.23 at 3:38 pm
Huh, looks crystal clear on my side.
Expectoration must be local to w/in 1m of you.
In real terms real estate, particularly housing, will be down for 10 years anyway. But price and value are not the same thing, so price largely depends on what inflation will do.
And what will inflation do? It will go up. It always goes up. 2008 and the ensuing Great Financial Crisis was an anomaly.
And why does inflation always go up? It seems to be human nature. Whether the sovereign is elected or coronated doesn’t seem to matter, the desire to spend money that we don’t have is inherent. It always happens. More than any other single thing it has been the downfall of empires. Ours is primed the follow the same path. With 50% of our population on some sort of government subsidy and the wars never ending, printing is really the only option.
Politically there is no solution. Trudeau/Singh know the game. No net recipient of government largess will ever vote to “fix” the system. And as they say in France, “First me, then the deluge”. They live for today, and care not whether tomorrow we die.
So ya, owning a house is not a bad idea. As long as real rates are negative, which they still are, it’s the closest thing to a free lunch you are going to find. And inflation will always eventually wipe away your depreciation. You’re still getting poorer, but you won’t be able to figure it out.
Remember folks; if you can’t beat them, join them.
We dumped all our over priced Canadian homes and condos 20 years to rent and invest where we get the biggest bang for our bucks and higher cash flow – better rents with the exchange.
Everyone make their own decisions – our stopped including Canada 20 years ago because we saw how immigrants and young people were getting fleeced daily.
I think the auto lease debate really depends on expectations. If you approach them like a utility and just need 4 wheels to get you around, leasing makes no sense. That’s sage advice from my mechanic, the same guy I won’t go to for my financial advice.
#31 Sail Away on 03.02.23 at 3:38 pm
@Faron at #18
Can you repost, please? Your message seems to be obscured by a spittly frothy sort of substance.
Thx
=======================
Faron’s posts are generated by A.I.
…err A.S.S.
…..on an olde Commodore 64.
True what you say about the Stats Garth but they will be held hostage to this:
Google “osfi stress test rate 2023”
That call, made by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) in mid-December, means the qualifying rate remains the HIGHER of 5.25% OR the CONTRACT RATE PLUS TWO PERCENTAGE POINTS, with seemingly scant prospect of a reversal anytime soon.
– Jan 12, 2023
People still have to qualify for a mortgage, rate increase or not.
If March is the “hopeful or not” month, expect the rest of the year to be the same – worse in the non peak months.
Only thing now that can tip the balance is OSFI backing down from its +2%.
“People are reluctant to sell, likely thinking a boom is returning and they’ll scoop more later.“
Is it possible that people simply can’t afford to move? Extra financing on a new place is no longer affordable even when selling their current residence?
How do mortgage rates stabilize or get cheaper when the bond market is rocking and rolling??
Heading forward to the further destruction of currency.
—————————–
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-hold-rates-steady-163814459.html
OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada will hold its key policy rate at the current level of 4.5% until the end of this year and will start cutting rates in January 2024, Canada’s independent budgetary watchdog forecast on Thursday.
—————————-
Food and services up by 10-15 %, rates at 2 %, ‘CPI’ at 4-5% (no it won’t go to 2 %). For the next 3-5 years, maybe a decade.
Valuations are irrelevant if the measure is faulty/a trash.
It would be interesting to see the Fed in US raising and the BoC guys cutting rates. Loonie down big time, imports up but hey, no inflation…
Right.
So funny to watch the premature declaration that inflation is over.
No, it ain’t.
#60 Felix on 02.27.23 at 8:00 pm
STOP THIS ANTI-FELINE RACISM!!!
————
Who doesn’t enjoy a nice “dead cat bounce” ?
#4 Wrk.dover on 03.02.23 at 2:15 pm
At my local garage-station (sic) the hang out drones there have concluded that blue pick-ups are the most dependable, but to my surprise that never came up here yesterday!
————————————————
red trucks have more power.
DELETED (Anti-vaccine whacko)
@24 Faron commented:
“Teslas are 11% more dangerous than human drivers. ”
As the biggest *accidental* killer of people are cars, it means that getting bumped off by a Tesla or other self driving cars is greater than one driven by little old me.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2019/04/20/what-is-the-number-one-killer-of-people-ages-5-to-29/?sh=37821d3c363f
I mean, forget serial killers kidnapping children on the way home from school, the kids are WAY more likely to get scrunched by a parent going to get their own kids…
(Sigh. I know, I have to drop this anti-car kick, but “once you see the picture, it’s hard to un-see it”. I’m trying.)
M63ON
Yes, not only did I buy the unquestionably most reliable brand of vehicle ever made one year ago, I had the dealer throw in the protective wrap and ceramic coating as well. Silly me!
I don’t know what I was thinking… Now I can’t even wax or clean the vehicle. It stays near permanently clean. Sadly, it will outlast me!
Not to mention that it was financed in part paid by a 1.9% loan which has since paid back 3 times what the loan costs.
The longer rates stay at these levels it will normalize them. That is correct.Where they go after? Up or down who knows. Where RE goes? Up or down who knows. My guess as good as anybody is RE prices in 20 years will be right around where they are now. If they ever have to start fiddling with the exemption because they need the money? Prices will be definitely lower in 20 years. Remember higher rates are climate friendly—people consume/pollute less and at the same time higher inflation gooses the treasury. Win -Win especially if gov’t can stop blowing it’s brains out with debt.
“As oft stated, I am not calling any bottom, top or middle. Stats are stats. Interpret them as you wish. – Garth”
True, you didn’t call bottom, top or middle.
You simply implied it.
Man up Garth, you can’t be right all the time, and that’s ok. Nobody is.
I found it interesting that the local pumpers are aren’t even attempting to put a good spin on the latest stats.
Facts are facts. Stats are stats. Sorry to confuse you with them. – Garth
Off Topic
Today on Angry Bird was bash Trudeau about China. Many posts.
This was a sample (by Justin Trudeau’s Ego, going multilingual):
https://twitter.com/Trudeaus_Ego/status/1631062934490173444
and with some humour:
https://twitter.com/Trudeaus_Ego/status/1630977490045763585
Andrew Coyne correct in why it matters in a re-quote:
https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1631082061363552261
——————–
I’m telling Greta. – Garth
She’s a little busy right now Garth …
https://twitter.com/byorten/status/1628879015451787266
Actually she is protesting Norwegian Wind Farms or Windmills per the Right (Quixotism Confusion).
https://twitter.com/BasedPoland2/status/1630545363634475011
https://twitter.com/DavidStrom/status/1631350654940659712
——
What a crazy messed up World we live in.
PS:
I liked it when the whale went after Greta.
People on this blog are delusional. There’s no gonna be any “Day of Reckoning”. No, the salaries are not at the 2019-th level. And more, I don’t know a single family earning back then less than 170k/year (two working grownups).
Now we have a huge number of people coming into the country and all of them need somewhere to live. It might sound crazy to you but housing is a necessity!
Looking at the past few weeks I could see how the houses that were on the market for 2 months, suddenly got a 200-300k price increase and got sold in a matter of days.
Only this single fact should tell you that there are people that have the money to buy whatever’s on the market, and there are a lot of them.
You’re waiting for the house prices to drop? Hahaha
The last bold thing that could “actually tame the valuation of residential homes” was to normalize mortgage rates.
That happened and houses are more unaffordable now than a year ago yet the bottom is in (in fact, slight increases/bidding wars in key markets).
Go figure! I guess the house pumpers were right all along, this time it really is different!
I can see clearly now where this is all headed. We replace all those bourgeoise SFD on the west side occupied by a couple of foreign students & a grandma with 5 story walk up Kruschevskas. Everybody gets a tiny balcony where they can stack their watermelons coated in plaster, sauerkraut, pickled herring, canned tuna & dried mushrooms. Treats for the winter!
Oh Big Green Comfy Chair, why hast thou forsaken me?
TD 1st Qtr 2023
Earnings were $1.6 billion, down 58% compared with the first quarter last year.
TD Bank to pay US$1.2B to resolve suit tied to Ponzi scheme
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/td-bank-to-pay-us-1-2b-to-resolve-suit-tied-to-ponzi-scheme-1.1888632
Predictably, Mr. Market not pleased:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TD:TSE?window=1M
Neither am I as a customer.
Garth
What do you know that isn’t being passed on here? What are your pals saying at CIBC, TD, RBC et al that has got you pumping real estate and calling a market bottom on scant sales occurring in the highly competitive sub $1m mkt?
Isn’t close to 35% of these banks residential mortgage book have amortisations way over 35 years? Aren’t originations crashing? What are the shoe prices and PE ratios telling you? Who are you trying to reassure?
Come on mate come clean. It’s hell out there as you know. Guess you gotta wave the flag on this one and rally the troops. Very sad.
Interesting how many time the same thing needs to be said: no prediction here, no bottom called. If you’d rather wallow in emotions and opinions, devoid of facts, visit Reddit. – Garth
#4 Wrk.dover on 03.02.23 at 2:15 pm
At my local garage-station (sic) the hang out drones there have concluded that blue pick-ups are the most dependable, but to my surprise that never came up here yesterday!
————————-
BLUE is right.. Cause thats how you feel if you buy one! Not to mention that their brand new engines are being recalled and make BLUE smoke!
“Three things are certain with the Ford F-150 : it’s the top selling pickup, there are plenty of trim and configuration choices, and.. it’s often recalled for safety issues.
Take, for example, the last generation, the one that began for model year 2021. We’re already at 17 recalls, of which a dozen were announced in 2022. They range from loose stone guards under the truck to airbags that can fail to deploy properly, including steering issues and faulty trailer brake controls.
The last recall added to the list impacts no less than half a million 2021-2022 F-150s across the continent, with a little over 103,000 units in Canada.”
You really can’t afFORD to drive one!
Local governments tax property so therefore they have an incentive to pressure the federal and provincial governments to do what amounts to nothing to lower real estate prices. Even if that were not the case many voters have skin in the game and would not support their primary investment being treated like silver and kept range bound for the benefit of users and short sellers.
Government just doesn’t have what it takes to defend the common good due to fear of losing votes.
loan loss provision?
The lawsuits involve the following stocks, listed in the order that they appear in the Goldman Sachs annual report. THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements
Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER);
GoHealth, Inc. (GOCO);
Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY);
ContextLogic Inc. (WISH);
DiDi Global Inc. (DIDIY);
Vroom Inc. (VRM);
Zymergen Inc. (acquired by Ginkgo Bioworks);
Sea Limited (SE); Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN);
Natera Inc. (NTRA);
Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD);
ON24, Inc. (ONTF);
Riskified Ltd. (RSKD);
Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR);
Oak Street Health, Inc. (OSH);
Reata Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RETA);
Bright Health Group, Inc. (BHG);
17 Education & Technology Group, Inc. (YQ);
LifeStance Health Group, Inc. (LFST);
MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO);
Coupang, Inc. (CPNG);
Yatsen Holding Ltd. (YSG);
Rent the Runway, Inc. (RENT);
Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN);
FIGS, Inc. (FIGS);
Silvergate Capital Corporation (SI);
Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc (CNTA).
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0000886982/000088698223000003/gs-20221231.htm#i854e93e0cf754d2a8f63d12f8c2442b6_118
#99 Flop… on 03.01.23 at 8:09 pm
I think it is a 2018 Rav 4, the lease expires in July this year, and yeah he dodgem car parked it a few times and put some minor dents and scratches in it, so we’ll probably have to bring an envelope.
/////////////////
Hey Flop, you’re a good guy here is some advice.
A month or two before the lease is to expire shop the Rav4 to all the Toyota dealers in the area. See who is willing to pony up the most.
No doubt that without all the dings the Rav would be worth thousands more than the residual and with this crazy market you might be able to get out clean.
With Toyota leases you are NOT required to bring the vehicle back to the original selling dealer.
Call ahead, make sure you make an appt with the used car manager.
Good Luck
18 Faron: Just stop it. You are imbarrassing yourself.
#36 Steven Rowlandson on 03.02.23 at 5:19 pm
Local governments tax property so therefore they have an incentive to pressure the federal and provincial governments to do what amounts to nothing to lower real estate prices.
=================================
Here in BC…
I am appealing my property assessment….hearing is MONDAY(….and by phone….HUH?)
I posted previously that Local Gov’ts are like mad dogs in tabling property tax hikes….Surrey is out of control with a near 20% increase…Vancouver in “Me Too” mode tables a 9.7% increase than at 11th hour bumped it up past 10%….
Many people will be hit far harder…as I discussed the “Bell Curve” whereby if your property,…according to BC Assessment…has an increase to the “right of the bell curve”….you will be hit with an even higher tax increase.
BTW: In BC we have “Homeowners Grant”…which lowers the gross tax amount “Y” if your property is below “X” $ assessment….What I found out is the Local Gov’t still gets the gross amount “Y”…the province pays the difference to the local gov’t.
How much longer before “Workers Paradise” BC NDP removes this?
=====
i guess convoy participation and tik tok didn’t get her elected!
she also ran for the ontario party
Ontario Party 0 0 0 84,251 1.8%
1,092 total votes
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/ontario/2022/results/#/all-parties
1. The Freedom Convoy began on TikTok“
According to Rouleau’s report, the convoy was set in motion by a TikTok video posted in November 2021 by a truck driver named Brigitte Belton.
https://pressprogress.ca/15-surprising-strange-and-troubling-details-buried-in-the-emergencies-act-inquirys-final-report/
Welcome to Beautiful British “Colombia”.
https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2023/03/02/langley-cannabis-cocaine-politics/
Thank you #40 Val.
All the hopium about BoC pivot/pause is fine for VRMs, but it is the bond market that influences fixed mortgage rates, and likely the USD bond market.
https://markets.ft.com/data/bonds/tearsheet/summary?s=US10YT
#19 ‘Peter’ – bang on. The argument that building more housing or that ‘densifying’ inner city neighborhoods via infills/multi-family housing/condos etc. ignores that those new builds are not ‘affordable’. A quick look at Calgary infills for sale in inner city neighborhoods showed prices ranging from around $650K to $950K. It might be cheaper in Calgary than the GTA or Vancouver but that doesn’t mean it is affordable!
There will never be a day of reckoning, Garth , as long as Real estate represents a huge chunk of Canada’s GDP .
Our grandchildren will curse our names looking at the mess that will inherit , but hey , as long as the Govts print money out of thin air everything will be alright and we’re gonna keep kicking the can down the road
DELETED (Abusive)
Also for Flop,
it is possible that your FIL bought excess wear and tear protection. Look for that in the lease agreement. It should cover up to $3500 of damage.
Good to know that the housing market is getting back to the norm of price increase.
I have told all of my friends that they need to buy a house ASAP now.
Soon, I will take out another HELOC to buy another home and finance a new F150.
I love spending paper gains.
Not to alarm the real estate cartel (sarcasm) but if Canada doesn’t follow the U.S. hikes our inflation is going to the moon.
Wow this country is fast becoming a joke. What a stunningly terrible idea they are trying in BC.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-firm-cocaine-approval-1.6766106
#58 Penny Henny on 03.02.23 at 5:24 pm
#99 Flop… on 03.01.23 at 8:09 pm
I think it is a 2018 Rav 4, the lease expires in July this year, and yeah he dodgem car parked it a few times and put some minor dents and scratches in it, so we’ll probably have to bring an envelope.
/////////////////
Hey Flop, you’re a good guy here is some advice.
A month or two before the lease is to expire shop the Rav4 to all the Toyota dealers in the area. See who is willing to pony up the most.
No doubt that without all the dings the Rav would be worth thousands more than the residual and with this crazy market you might be able to get out clean.
With Toyota leases you are NOT required to bring the vehicle back to the original selling dealer.
Call ahead, make sure you make an appt with the used car manager.
Good Luck
////::///////////
I will look into that Pen and try and save the senior a few bucks.
I think he signed the lease in Surrey, but was getting it serviced in Richmond, so I was wondering about that.
Good car, really fuel efficient, bit too small for me, feel like my bum is dragging on the ground when I drive it.
Gravel rash is overrated…
M48BC
There are many reasonably priced houses all over rural Alberta. Alberta is the best place in Canadastan to make a decent living, with no provincial sales tax. Big lots with room for a garden and a workshop. 300,000 would buy you a nice setup. Great for work from home people, or entrepreneurs. Saskatchewan has great potential in the future also. Shall we merge? The Autonomous Republic of Buffalo? Let me say, it would one day rival Ontario in future economic power and influence. It should have happened in 1905.
Let’s do some math Garth.
I bought a 2004 Toyota Corolla with 134km for $4,000. The seats are more comfy than my LazyBoy recliner.
This car can easily last another 10 years on just oil changes.
Or I can go lease a new Corolla for 9 months, which will cost me the same amount, $4,000. Except, no car after 9 months.
Want to bet my Corolla banger lasts more than 9 months?
You are nut to go and lease a new vehicle just because you can save on maintenance and depreciation and have nothing to worry about.
Nobody needs a new vehicle, except people who like to waste money. Also, the new car smell is toxic to your health and well being.
Humans amaze me.
Exchanging 25 plus years of labour just to afford a home in Canada.
We raccoons sleep in trees, under your basement floors, in your air ducts and in your attics FOR FREE.
The Rouleau report is absolutely correct. Not!
Just remember this, our fearless leader hid himself away instead of dealing with it like a man. They knew it was coming for weeks. They let it happen, in my opinion. Incompetence? Possibly. Ignorance? Wouldn’t surprise me. Downright negligence and arrogance on the part of the “trudeau/Singh unholy alliance? Bingo!
#73 Don’t buy a new car on 03.02.23 at 6:39 pm
…the new car smell is toxic to your health and well being.
———
I can help.
One afternoon of retrieval training in the estuary with 2-3 bird dogs and any new car smell will be forever gone. Like dew from a buttercup.
Even better with cows. My dogs looooove a gooshy smooshy supremely fresh cow flop. Chin down, front legs tucked, power through chin first, drop, roll left, roll right, stand up, shake, wag madly, wait for applause.
“Yes, house prices are still insane. And, yup, this may just push that fabled Day of Reckoning out further into the future.”
Sounds about right. This short rebound will seem significant for a while, maybe 12-18 months max. But the next step will be a serious downward dip, influenced by other factors and black swans that are bigger.
#74 Smart Raccoon on 03.02.23 at 6:42 pm
So wait – now we’ve got a raccoon plus Felix the cat posting on this comments section?
Who’s next Garth?
Cockroaches?
Skunks?
Trump?
Canadastan needs a royal commission on the subject of why so many L.N.G. projects were denied over the years, costing Canadastan billions in lost revenues and lost opportunities. That goes for all canceled projects rejected by our virtue signaling Idiocracically elected clown car show we call the parliament. All 3 parties answer to the privy council, in the end.
Such real estate optimism. The pendulum’s swing has only just changed direction and thus has a long way to go in the reverse direction. There will be a spring blip of an uptake after the few well of make their move up because of their growing family or retirement. Then the pendulum acceleration will pick up as the BOC raise rates vurther and drains liquidity from the system. The absence of buyers will slowly grind away at the sellers and prices will decline for many years to come. Do you really think that all that debt accumulated on account of extremely low interest is really going away.
#3 Stephen on 03.02.23 at 2:11 pm
Hey Garth, was hoping you could touch on banks savings rates. We often talk about high inflations in the 70’s and 80’s but this was partially offset with banks offering savings rates as high as those interest rates. Do you see banks jacking up saving rates? And if not, why is it different this time?
—————————————————————–
Well Stephen, they have been taking from the savers now for how many years and giving the money to people without money to buy a house they couldn’t afford without help form ma and pa. I expect they will continue to take from the savers and offer prime minus mortgages as they compete for the few buyers out there seeking mortgages as they have done in the last 20 years. We’ll see.
#18 Faron on 03.02.23 at 3:13 pm
#178 4 out of 3 people find math hard on 03.02.23 at 1:02 pm
76 Sail Away: I was a bit dissapointed in the presentation because it lacked specific information about Master Plan Three
—-
Because there is no such document! A non-fraudulent company would have done one or more of the following:
1) released a new, working product.
2) released a credible, well researched document outlining their proposed way forward or at least showing what they propose is possible.
3) Followed up or finalized previous claims. “Master Plan 2” bore no fruit. None!
Cybertruck is still AWOL (despite raking in hundreds of $millions in “deposits”). Roadster? AWOL (despite raking in $millions in deposits). Robotaxis (feel like I’m being trolled just using the term). AWOL. FSD. AWOL. 100 semis to Pepsico? 63 are AWOL, the rest keep breaking down. Advanced battery tech? AWOL. humanoid robot? AWOL.
You are being had. Elon has cashed out $billions. Insiders to Tesla, further $billions. Late cycle TSLA shareholders directly transferred $ to Elon and will almost certainly not see it back.
——————
Huh, interesting.
I had the complete opposite impression: Tesla laid a clear path on how they can scale, they have all the suppliers lined up, and they’re on their way to get us away from fossil fuels.
As a climate expert, I thought you Faron would be all on board with this?
Watch the American bond market.
If yields rise your Canadian housing market goes nowhere but down.
You can get blips here and there but the trajectory is saggy.
You can wish and you can hope and you can dream but Reality is Stark.
It’s kinda like thinking Andrea Horwath would hold the line on property tax increases in Hamilton.
Not too bloody likely.
The Unions want to get paid and their needs are first.
Like any good socialist nation “the risk averse are rewarded first”.
@#14 Westsider
Something that anyone living in Vancouver knew, but no level of government was willing to look at it .
https://globalnews.ca/news/8158351/canada-revenue-agency-bc-luxury-homes-foreign-buyers/
+++
Billions of dollars flowed into BC .
Hard to believe some of that money didn’t slosh into political re-election campaigns.
After living here for 40 years and seeing the unbelievable rule bending for houses, businesses, etc.
Nothing about the lack of govt oversite surprises.
This ‘market’ is hardly one. volume chases prices down.
@#33 Faron
“Expectoration must be local to w/in 1m of you.”
+++
As a Weather Hydrologist / water guru…
With all that spittle flecked invective….. we should call you
“Rain Man”
Nordstrom is shuttering all its stores in Canadastan, leaving many unemployed. Like Bed Bath and Bankrupt. So the retail apocalypse continues. Commercial real estate is a ticking timebomb, in my opinion. How much debt does Canadastan carry when you include government, corporate, individual, and all liabilities related to pensions and what not? Nothing to see here, move along. All is well. Not!
4 Wrk.dover on 03.02.23 at 2:15 pm
That car day experiment went about how I figured it would have, especially with folks commenting how their car needed tires and brakes eventually! Brand loyalty with little factual synopsis like todays opening paragraph concludes.
At my local garage-station (sic) the hang out drones there have concluded that blue pick-ups are the most dependable, but to my surprise that never came up here yesterday!
——————————-
Because they are all black.
Like the Devil.
#46 CarVana on 03.02.23 at 4:35 pm
Yes, not only did I buy the unquestionably most reliable brand of vehicle ever made one year ago,
it was financed in part paid by a 1.9% loan which has since paid back 3 times what the loan costs.
__________________________________
Good grief man, you want to lever your car’s capital in this era? It’s bad enough investing all the money we are already stuck with! I was happy enough with the gain when our new car went up 5% between deposit and delivery. But pay 2% then spec on 8% during 2022??? gahhh.
Unless you are an insider.
Flotsam Jetsam. US Treasury rate yields and whatnot signaling dog knows what. Everybody talking out of both sides of their mouths, including musings about ‘what spring holds’ from the Fed. If ‘Spring’ still means March 20th it’s not that far away, so gird your loins and ‘put up or shut up Jerome Powell’ as your vacillating statements are taking on an annoying tone. Some refer to this rather colloquially as ‘Sh_t or get off the pot”.
Regular working stiff peeps are more focused on the gas pump and grocery store prices, and what’s goin’ down in their local hood. Three more peeps now killed in avalanches here in the West. (German tourists). Very sad, and it always seems to be the tourists from out of the country. I doubt these events have captured the attention of the real estate hand wringers in GTA or GVA. ‘All politics is local’, as Tip O’Neill once said, and one has to think it applies to issues outside of politics as well. Stock markets, real estate, tax strategies. But what else is really going on in plain sight?
How about those store closures by WallMart in certain markets? Explained away as ‘underperforming stores’, but even the top dog there doesn’t deny ‘organized theft rings’ have been making a dent in profits. Retail is under siege everywhere. Business interests will vote with their feet. It will become more apparent as time marches on where failure to address social unrest has impacted business investment. Reap what you sow peeps.
There’s a Revolution going on under everyone’s nose, with shiny and other things being dangled as a distraction. Wishing it weren’t so or wishing otherwise won’t make it not so…. There are monsters roaming the quiet countryside. Now where did I leave my pistola?
#70 Flop
Good car, really fuel efficient, bit too small for me, feel like my bum is dragging on the ground when I drive it.
——————
So what car would be a good fit for your bum?
Or is it just “bigger is better”?
Good news! Canadastan will now send 8 tanks to Ukraine to fight the red menace, aka Vladimir V. Putin. + a towtruck! Our illustrious military are attempting to scrape together enough spare parts to keep these bad boys functioning in a war zone. Mabey we could also send some sea kings from our inventory also? Or some spitfires? On today’s battlefields, without air support and such, all these tanks are is expensive rolling coffins.
#76 Sail Away on 03.02.23 at 7:15 pm
One afternoon of retrieval training in the estuary with 2-3 bird dogs and any new car smell will be forever gone.
_________________________________
Years back, a few times I spotted an old fella nearby, towing a cage trailer scaled to suit his Tracker, looking like Barnum &Bailey, while housing a gentle German Sheppard matching his age, going somewhere local.
With your Tesla, the dogs wouldn’t even be sedated by carbon monoxide, out back.
From a car’s perspective, both sorts of owners are needed: someone to buy/lease the new ones and someone to take over the older ones and their repairs and maintenance. You wouldn’t want three year old cars sent to the scrapyard.
One sort is not morally, economically or sexually superior to the other.
FFS
#130 Quintilian on 03.01.23 at 11:03 pm
#101 Flop… on 03.01.23 at 8:23 pm
“Canadian Credit Delinquencies Are Rising For Everything But Mortgages”
“Canadians Are Falling Behind On Other Segments of Debt
Hello Uncle Flop, Did you notice that BC is doing very well on that front, in fact delinquencies are down.
My theory is that its because of the NDP, and its proficient running of the economy.
But I know this blog is full of right wing curmudgeons and would probably attribute it some rounding off error in the statistical calculations, or something silly like the black market economy, heck some nutbars would probably speculate its attributable to money laundering.
Well Quint, the mortgages get all the headlines, but I actually put that story up yesterday because we had an auto themed blog, here was the quote I thought was relevant.
“Inflation and rising interest rates might be pushing borrowers to their limits. Delinquency rates showed huge annual growth for installment loans (+49.0%), auto loans (+23.8%), lines of credit (+21.9%), and credit cards (+17.1%). Such a fast rise in rates doesn’t exactly scream, “everything is fine.”
https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-credit-delinquencies-are-rising-for-everything-but-mortgages/
I guessed it was just a matter of priorities.
The toys go first, secondly you cancel the upcoming trip to Hawaii, then you pull out the scissors and chop up the credit card.
Then if that doesn’t stop the debt bleed, you pull out an Olfa knife, scrape some drywall off the studs and eat it for dinner…
M48BC
Re. Nordstrom I stand by my prediction of a Consumer Recession. Not for the Global Corps.
— Pets must go? Considered Unsustainable for the Climate?? Is there anything Corvid cannot do.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/01/uk-cat-cull-was-considered-early-in-covid-crisis-ex-minister-says
UK cat cull was considered early in Covid crisis, ex-minister says. James Bethell says government considered whether all pet cats might have to be put down to contain virus
— More health incoming.
https://www.blacklocks.ca/ordered-four-more-boosters/
Ordered Four More Boosters
Cabinet signed for billions’ worth of vaccines yet to be delivered, records show. Vaccines under contract for shipment are enough for another four booster shots for every Canadian adult already fully vaccinated: “There are currently 90.8 million remaining doses to be delivered in 2023 and 2024.”
— Isn’t science wonderful. An Emergency which lasts 3 years then may be ended at once — down to the very day. Two more weeks guys! (err..four)
.L.A. County’s COVID-19 emergency will end March 31 (latimes.com)
Politicians have again avoided doing those bold things that actually tame the valuation of residential homes.
——–
You mean like taxing capital gains on your home.
Which means allowing homeowners to deduct their mortgage payments…
Which means grand-fathering all current homeowners since they weren’t permitted to deduct their payments…
Which means banks wouldn’t be able to loan huge sums to homeowners since they would be liable for the outstanding amounts of capital gains tax payable upon sale.
Mortgage payments would never be deductible. A home’s ACB would consist of initial cost plus physical improvements, not carrying costs. That makes no sense whatsoever. – Garth
I agree with a lot of what Garth says at his blog. Two things I don’t agree with are that people should lease rather than own their cars and everyone should collect CPP at age 60.
As for the Canadian housing market, I suspect we are seeing a short-term, temporary rise in prices, but medium term (over next couple years) I’m thinking it will be a slow grind down. Of course there is some wishful thinking on my part because I sold in 2012 and would like to buy again, but only if the price is right.
Nowhere did I say everyone should lease. However, folks should take CPP as soon as possible, of course. – Garth
Well as a Cowtown rez and a leasee I thought I’d chime in..
Been leasing for several years, have made $$ every time i by buying out the lease and selling privately. Not rocket science, just research the vehicles that retain the most value, (think ‘not Ford’s’!). Banked almost $20k when i got rid of my last truck and turned around and got another. My base audi did OK, the loaded one not so much.
Prices in Cowtown seem pretty robust to me, especially in the tonier west end but all real estate is local
Buy 20-50 houses in the USA for under a million. Rent in Vancouver. collected 20-50 USA Dollar Rent cheques on the first of every month.
Nordstrom is closing shop in canada
2500 staff whacked.
@#91 Ponzie’s Posterior Paradigm
“So what car would be a good fit for your bum?
Or is it just “bigger is better”?”
++++
Of course!
Thats why your most famous Austrian…. Arnie…..drives a Hummer.
I’m not one to make predictions, but I don’t think we’ve hit the bottom unless everyone suddenly starts making a ton of more money
This recent surge was people snatching up any good listings, as so many houses are just total make-work projects, neglected, weird designs, bad renovations, flips, terrible style etc. that the good listings are few and far between
Almost every listing I see has been sold within the last few years, and is now listed close to purchase price after multiple price drops fairly quickly. I sense desperation
#98 Observer on 03.02.23 at 9:00 pm
I agree with a lot of what Garth says at his blog. Two things I don’t agree with are that people should lease rather than own their cars and everyone should collect CPP at age 60.
As for the Canadian housing market, I suspect we are seeing a short-term, temporary rise in prices, but medium term (over next couple years) I’m thinking it will be a slow grind down. Of course there is some wishful thinking on my part because I sold in 2012 and would like to buy again, but only if the price is right.
Nowhere did I say everyone should lease. However, folks should take CPP as soon as possible, of course. – Garth
^^^^^^^^^^^
I didn’t say you said “everyone” should lease either. :)
When you say “folks should take CPP as soon as possible, of course”, this literally means age 60 (which is consistent with other statements you have made in the past using such terms as “no exceptions”). However many financial experts would disagree with such a generalized statement.
They are misguided. – Garth
Goodness Gracious.
Did the Feds give a BC company (Adastra ) a license to manufacture and sell….cocaine?
Without notifying the BC NDP ?
All this on the same day that the BC Govt announced another $500 million tax payer dollars on drug addiction rehab?
BC Premier seemed blindsided when asked at the Drug Rehab presser about the Langley company Adastra’s announcement that they would be selling cocaine in BC
https://globalnews.ca/video/9523990/heated-debate-in-b-c-legislature-over-commercialization-of-hard-drugs/
First the Libs legalize pot…now this?
Painful.
Nordstrom today …….The Bay next ?
Things that make you go hmmmmm
Retail is now online. Bought a newspaper lately? – Garth
Alberta gusher energy revenues have not translated into new office leases or jobs. Profit is up because of an increase in efficiencies. Calgary is still devolving into a welfare addled ghost town and skilled educated workers are bailing in droves.
Nothing more to see here move along.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-02/blackstone-defaults-on-531-million-nordic-property-backed-cmbs#xj4y7vzkg
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackstone-limits-redemptions-69-billion-reit-2022-12-01/
https://nypost.com/2023/03/02/credit-suisse-breach-spills-info-of-high-net-worth-clients/
Nowhere did I say everyone should lease. However, folks should take CPP as soon as possible, of course. – Garth
————
Indeed leasing a car for 700.00 per month for the rest of your life + insurance, seems to be only for those who can write the lease down on their taxes (self employed, business etc..) or who need a new car for perpetuity. Not a reasonable idea for the masses: buy a good second hand car and drive it for years.
Nor do I think it is a good idea to universally take CPP when you hit 60. If I did so last year, 54% of it would be hoovered away and at the low amount it would provide anyway. I will wait until I am 68 and in a much lower income bracket….I have done the math, and it does not compute…
No one size fits all.
Eight years of government money you won’t take. Interesting. Chrystia thanks you. – Garth
#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.23 at 9:21 pm
@#91 Ponzie’s Posterior Paradigm
“So what car would be a good fit for your bum?
Or is it just “bigger is better”?”
++++
Of course!
Thats why your most famous Austrian…. Arnie…..drives a Hummer.
——————-
Drove a Hummer!
Now he bikes through Vienna.
And supports “green” projects.
Monday- Greg
Tuesday- Ian
Wednesday- Greg
Thursday- Ian
Friday- Greg
Saturday- Ian
Sunday- Greg
The Gregorian calendar
My dear relative took the CPP at 60 as I passed on Garth’s advice Way back. She lived to 66. Take the CPP…cause you never know. Put it into an investment and give it to family or a charity if you don’t need it.
Interesting article in Zerohedge written by a guy who is knowledgeable on the Enron debacle way back stating that to understand the economic engine one should understand finance, economics, global political-economy, psychology, sociology, culture and history.
It is not just about finance and economics as per the author. My bet is that economics are comparable to the pistons on a gas engine and finance is the fuel injection system. Psychology the engine computer…sociology the fuel air mixture…etc.
#69 Marco on 03.02.23 at 6:31 pm
Not to alarm the real estate cartel (sarcasm) but if Canada doesn’t follow the U.S. hikes our inflation is going to the moon.
Our central bankers already announced that the rates top is in and they already plan to cut…
With still strongly negative real interest rates.
Inflation has not even started yet here.
Look at Europe, do you think in Canada it would be milder? Here the stats may lie more but the end effect is the same – skyrocketing food prices and services.
For a very long time. Severe stagflationary depression.
The only purpose for BoC to hike rates that ‘aggressively’ was that they realized that they have a very little room and wanted to save face by showing ‘leadership’.
But they were too fast and declared the end of it/inflation/rate increases/ too soon.
They will fall on their faces again, get used to that.
The same guys who said that rates won’t rise for a long time (just before ‘aggressive’, ‘historical’ rise, now declare win against inflation…
And they could have been right – real rates continue to be strongly negative.
Which is fueling inflation in a strong feedback loop.
Lie after lie after lie and then demand for credibility…
Sure.
I bet my behind that inflation is just starting.
Eight years of government money you won’t take. Interesting. Chrystia thanks you. – Garth
—–
Nope. I ran the numbers and talked with an advisor who concurred with what I believed. When 54% of about 920.00 per month (at age 60) would be completely clawed back by the Gov’t as I am in that tax bracket, I am not going to feel the loss of the low 400s extra each month. Much rather wait until I am retired in a much lower bracket and where my source of $$ is not employment income… I’ll then take advantage of the very low rate of tax that people who lounge around collecting dividends incur at that time… then taking the CP is a good idea.. 6–7 years to go…However, if we are all nuked by then by Russia it would have been a bad call.
Gambling with your death date is dumb. Take the money. – Garth
#79 Really? Not! on 03.02.23 at 7:23 pm
Canadastan needs a royal commission on the subject of why so many L.N.G. projects were denied over the years, costing Canadastan billions in lost revenues and lost opportunities.
——————————————————-
Why do you need a Royal Commission?
The entire political and corporate ruling class has gone woke, as has the 60%+ that votes for them. Democracy rules, you get what you vote for.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world marches on, while much of the west goes for the economic destruction of “net-zero”.
Perhaps if enough economic pain should come to the masses, they will think and vote differently. Thus far, most Canadians are enjoying economic good times thanks to real estate valuations, thus they can concern themselves over global warming and pronouns.
Dog Help- Our 2 year old GSD walks with me 4x a week in the City about 10k. She now refuses to walk outside , except to relieve herself. I’m thinking the salt and ice on her paws. We always wipe her down and cleanse her paws. She will not wear boots. Appetite is fine and otherwise she is good. ?
up to 40% off in some markets? Sounds like a bargain to me. Time to shop for quality – which doesn’t include you know where…starts with a K ends with an oh-no??
Og
#101 Packedliftingdeviceflatulence
Nordstrom is closing shop in Canada.
2500 staff whacked.
——————————————————————————————————–
Target.
Lowes.
Disney.
Nordstrom.
Bed Bath & Beyond.
Just a few victims of the Canadian Retail Apocalypse.
It’s tough to do business in this provincial backwater.
We like to think that we are a sophisticated bunch.
We are simply a collection of hicks, hillbillies, and rubes.
But, I like it that way.
I LIKE it!
We can always go entertainment shopping in the U.S. for fun and amusement.
We have our Tim Hortons and Canadian Tire and Giant Tiger and Dollarama.
Really, is anything more necessary?
“No data out of the mighty GTA yet. Or the second-biggest market in the land (Montreal).”
Hi Garth, Thanks for the “Montreal” acknowledgement / shout out :)
#18 Faron
Looks like this person should have taken your advice and not bought TSLA. So many posts like this out there this year feel bad for the people who made these decisions
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/11gjugb/thanks_pappa_musk_618000_gain_porn/
A little info in case you want to understand housing in Canada.
House prices in Canada cannot come down as much as they did in the USA (a few years back). Accept it.
Houses in Canada are simply not used for housing anymore. Those who want a house to live in and can afford it, have already bought.
Houses are now a commodity. They are an investment.
(It would be silly to buy a million dollar asset and park your behind in it)
You buy it and rent it out or sell it for capital gains.
That’s it… no more, no less.
#58 Penny Henny on 03.02.23 at 5:24 pm
#99 Flop… on 03.01.23 at 8:09 pm
I think it is a 2018 Rav 4, the lease expires in July this year, and yeah he dodgem car parked it a few times and put some minor dents and scratches in it, so we’ll probably have to bring an envelope.
/////////////////
Hey Flop, you’re a good guy here is some advice.
A month or two before the lease is to expire shop the Rav4 to all the Toyota dealers in the area. See who is willing to pony up the most.
==============================
COMMENT:
Re: Leased vehicles and damage…
Our 1st lease with Dealer A…. we went over the allowed mileage…and it had a few obvious scratches…
The dealer ignored it and we went onto our 2 nd lease with Dealer “A”.
Our 2nd lease….. spouse put a big dent in the corner of back fender….(we had $500 deductible)..the dealer accepted it “as is”… no penalty… and we went onto our 3rd and current lease.
As noted ,we had leased from same dealer “A” for first two leases….switched to a different dealer “B” for the 3rd lease .
It’s ” NISSAN ” we lease from….not the dealer …..so leases are transferable.
I found the dealers, especially with 2nd lease…aggressively contacting us to trade in as the leases were running out…it appears the USED market is quite active….that leasing is a means to create predictable chain of USED inventory.
The lesson is you can do some negotiating after each lease re: many factors such as damage.
#116 under the radar on 03.03.23 at 5:14 am
Dog Help- Our 2 year old GSD walks with me 4x a week in the City about 10k. She now refuses to walk outside , except to relieve herself. I’m thinking the salt and ice on her paws. We always wipe her down and cleanse her paws. She will not wear boots. Appetite is fine and otherwise she is good. ?
—————
Your dog has flipped the script is training you, that’s all. 2yo is a pretty common age for independent assertiveness. Easy to fix, but specific methods depend on the dog’s temperament. Talk to a local trainer.
118 Dharma Bum on 03.03.23 at 9:12 am
#101 Packedliftingdeviceflatulence
Nordstrom is closing shop in Canada.
2500 staff whacked.
——————————————————————————————————–
Target.
Lowes.
Disney.
Nordstrom.
Bed Bath & Beyond.
Just a few victims of the Canadian Retail Apocalypse.
———————-
No big deal.
Germany’s biggest fancy cloth chain is insolvent.
Maybe people just realized that clothes with a fancy name and logo, are not better, just more expensive.
Re: GSD
A vet visit to rule out musculoskeletal issues might be worthwhile
#113 Summertime on 03.03.23 at 12:14 am
#69 Marco on 03.02.23 at 6:31 pm
Not to alarm the real estate cartel (sarcasm) but if Canada doesn’t follow the U.S. hikes our inflation is going to the moon.
..
Our central bankers already announced that the rates top is in and they already plan to cut…
…..
Not really, they announced a “pause” and will likely do so in March as they do not wish to look foolish again..but watch out in April or later as they will be forced to increase again. (which I think you believe)
There will be no rate hike next week. Most economists now foresee the Bank of Canada’s pause lasting all of 2023. And, no, inflation will not take off if the Fed hikes twice more. Silly talk. – Garth
Gambling with your death date is dumb. Take the money. – Garth
^^^^^^^^^^^
Gambling with your future old self is dumb. Case in point, a divorced woman I know who fell on some hard times (TMI) took CPP at age 60, but still needs to work at age 69 because she will not have enough money to pay her rent and bills if she quits. She is healthy and good genes run in her family, so she can expect a long life. She would have been wiser to wait until later (possibly age 70) to ensure a significantly higher CPP payout during her old age. The goal for some people (those who were not fortunate enough to amass reasonable wealth during their lives) should not be to collect as much money as possible from CPP during their lifetime but rather to ensure they can actually retire at some point. When you are dead, you are dead and won’t care if you hit the breakeven point, but when you are old and struggle to pay the rent you will care.
That story does not remotely pass the smell test. Try harder with the next fabrication. – Garth
#73 Don’t buy a new car on 03.02.23 at 6:39 pm
Let’s do some math Garth.
I bought a 2004 Toyota Corolla with 134km for $4,000. The seats are more comfy than my LazyBoy recliner.
This car can easily last another 10 years on just oil changes.
Or I can go lease a new Corolla for 9 months, which will cost me the same amount, $4,000. Except, no car after 9 months.
Want to bet my Corolla banger lasts more than 9 months?
You are nut to go and lease a new vehicle just because you can save on maintenance and depreciation and have nothing to worry about.
Nobody needs a new vehicle, except people who like to waste money. Also, the new car smell is toxic to your health and well being.
===================================
Question:
How do you get a used vehicle ?
Do they build “new” used vehicles ?
Kudos to “backyard mechanics” that found a “niche” of affordability. We all have anecdotes of people we know who have “old beaters” they have kept going for 20+years.
IMHO…Demographically and logistically etc…they will be a declining breed the more complex “new” ……..and hence “future used” vehicles will become.
to the sad person who thought ..” terrible idea they are trying …
corporate and the tainted drug industry
The Sacklers hold money offshore – a prosecutor in New York alleged they transferred as much as $1 billion to Swiss accounts. The family has maintained the money flows were «perfectly legal and appropriate in every respect».Sep 2, 2021
….in March 2021, the United States House of Representatives introduced a bill that would stop the bankruptcy judge in the case from granting members of the Sackler family legal immunity during the bankruptcy proceedings.
law suit bc purdue
In addition to the Purdue Canada settlement, B.C.’s application to certify its class-action lawsuit in the B.C. Supreme Court has been scheduled for fall 2023. This could open up the door to further settlements to recover health-care costs.
“B.C. is using all the tools in the toolbox to tackle the ongoing public health emergency,” said Sheila Malcolmson, Minister of Mental Health and Addictions. “We are standing up to multi-national pharmaceutical companies, advancing decriminalization, investing in new treatment and recovery services, expanding harm-reduction measures like prescribed safe supply, and building a comprehensive and seamless continuum of mental health and addictions care that British Columbians need and deserve.”
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2022AG0044-001031
============================
establish relationships before hosted open houses and community to 200 people came to learn encourage others
https://globalnews.ca/news/8936204/tainted-drugs-2nd-june-drug-alert-peterborough-ont/
By the way :
https://www.pbs.org/independentlens/documentaries/love-in-the-time-of-fentanyl/
#26 chalkie on 03.02.23 at 3:32 pm
Heard about a nice home that came up last week in my neck of the woods, for what I believed to be priced at $150,000.00 below fair market value, I heard they had over 80 showings, I suspect if the home was listed at true market value, the sellers would have avoided about 60 or 70 of these unfordable showing’s stomping through their lovely home.
What a scam for an agent to try and claim fame of gloating about getting so much over listing for their clients, agents like this think they get a gold feather in their hat, but at the same time, they are creating a nightmare for the honest agents trying to make a living.
The seller got seven offers and accepted what the home should have been priced and sold for in the first place.
=============================
This appears to be a classic realtors’ trick in slow markets…
Lowball the asking price ..(sort of like chumming for sharks)…to lure in buyers on the hunt thinking a deal is available…then the next level of “RE psychosis” is FOMO and the bidding wars are triggered.
Another tactic ?
…..is for scammer realtors to tell the seller you can get MORE than current market value….( just to get the listing)…and when the asking price is not met…”cue the violin music”… that the market has shifted and the seller should lower the asking price.
The market is free and fair. Buyers can easily find out what a property sold for in the past, or if there has been a relisting (unless they mistakenly do not have their own agent). Using terms like ‘trick’ and ‘scam’ is beneath us here. – Garth
@116-GSD….It’s obvious she wants you to get her a cat.
the usa experience should be the warning
https://www.quarles.com/newsroom/publications/doj-focuses-on-health-care-fraud-schemes-involving-telemedicine-health-care-facilities
This is the largest health care fraud takedown “to-date,” but expect that to be only a temporary designation. The significant federal resources brought to bear by DOJ, HHS-OIG, the DEA and other agencies, coupled with data analytics, is allowing federal enforcement to move faster than ever before in its investigations and prosecutions.
“The schemes employed by the more than 300 defendants, who include more than 100 licensed medical professions (including more than 50 doctors and 20 executives), were a mixture of classic healthcare fraud schemes and novel ones new to investigators. The familiar schemes included billing federal health care programs for services and products never provided to beneficiaries as well as prescribing or billing for medically unnecessary services or prescriptions, including opioids.
The more novel schemes involved telemedicine – the use of telephones or computers to provide healthcare services remotely. Near the beginning of the pandemic, healthcare experts feared that the increased use of telemedicine would lead to rampant fraud, waste, and abuse given enormous Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (the “CARES Act”) funding. The DOJ’s latest takedown proves that those early fears were well-founded.
Some examples of the fraudulent schemes in the DOJ’s takedown include:
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/addiction-treatment-facility-operators-sentenced-112-million-addiction-treatment-fraud-scheme
Monday, January 9, 2023
Florida Doctor Sentenced for Substance Abuse Treatment Fraud Scheme
A Florida doctor was sentenced today to 20 years in prison for engaging in a massive multi-year scheme to bill health care benefit programs for fraudulent tests and treatments for vulnerable patients seeking treatment for drug and/or alcohol addiction. This case was brought as part of the Department of Justice’s Sober Homes Initiative.
DOJ Focuses on Health Care Fraud Schemes Involving Telemedicine & Health Care Facilities
On September 30, 2020, the Department of Justice (“DOJ”) announced the largest-to-date healthcare fraud takedown, resulting in criminal charges against more than 300 individuals. The charges include more than $6 billion in alleged fraudulent charges and millions of opioid prescriptions. They also include more than $4.5 billion of alleged fraud involving telemedicine. Telemedicine is a vital tool during the COVID-19 Pandemic, but it is also, unfortunately, one being exploited by criminals. Other charges involved abuses at health care facilities and addiction treatment centers.
The takedown was a coordinated effort by the DOJ’s Health Care Fraud Strike Force, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (“FBI”), the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of the Inspector General (“HHS-OIG”), the Drug Enforcement Administration (“DEA”), and involved more than 40 U.S. Attorney Offices across the nation.
I’d like to mention that any snowblower that has been not been started for only a few months, is not going to start until you dump out the fuel in the small cup on the bottom of the carb.
Some have a side bolt for draining, all have a bottom bolt for removing.
I tried to ignore this step this morning. Fail.
@#48 Quintilian on 03.02.23 at 4:36 pm
“As oft stated, I am not calling any bottom, top or middle. Stats are stats. Interpret them as you wish. – Garth”
True, you didn’t call bottom, top or middle.
You simply implied it.
Man up Garth, you can’t be right all the time, and that’s ok. Nobody is.
I found it interesting that the local pumpers are aren’t even attempting to put a good spin on the latest stats.
Facts are facts. Stats are stats. Sorry to confuse you with them. – Garth
++++++++++++++++++++++++
facts are facts unless they don’t line up
with the doomers narrative.
Gambling with your death date is dumb. Take the money. – Garth
***********************************
Worst advice yet. Just unpack what you are saying. You better take the free money because you might die next year.
Well if that happens who cares like anyone ever died saying if only I got $400 more from the government.
I hope that made sense to you. – Garth
#90 the Jaguar on 03.02.23 at 8:23 pm
How about those store closures by WallMart in certain markets? Explained away as ‘underperforming stores’, but even the top dog there doesn’t deny ‘organized theft rings’ have been making a dent in profits.
////////////
Maybe it’s time for a ‘Trusted Shopper’ program?
#112 ‘Don’ – you are correct that none of us know how much time we have left. The only reasons for not taking CPP at 60 in my opinion are if you are still working or if taking it early would mean you wouldn’t have enough to live on in retirement because of the penalty for taking it early. Which probably means you will continue to work to age 65+ anyway, unless you are unable to do so for health reasons.
I would add that I’ve read some news articles suggesting that one of the ways to deal with the worker shortage is to cease allowing folks to take CPP early. Not sure just how much that would change folks retirement plans. Given that the average CPP payment at age 65 is around $700 (as per StatsCan) seems to me that isn’t a large enough amount to make much difference to whether someone retires early or not. Frankly if you need that money to be able to retire chances are you really can’t afford to in the first place.
The market is free and fair. Buyers can easily find out what a property sold for in the past, or if there has been a relisting (unless they mistakenly do not have their own agent). Using terms like ‘trick’ and ‘scam’ is beneath us here. – Garth
—————————————————-
COMMENT:
Just curious….(and not being sarcastic)
Any data etc. on how educated/well informed potential RE buyers are ?
Do the majority subscribe to the good points you posted ?
Anecdote:
WE bought our current SFH back in 1996 when the market was baaad, our final offer was about 20% less than their asking price with a ” take- it- or- leave- it ” qualifier.
We knew they had to sell as they had purchased elsewhere.
That’s bu$ine$$.
Assessed price in 2023 has increased 5X’s since then.
And you feel clever having bullied the sellers? – Garth
And you feel clever having bullied the sellers? – Garth
=================================
No…
QUOTE:
“….The market is free and fair. Garth ……”
We went back and forth for about (3) hours of negotiating… decided to fish -or -cut -bait.
How is that bullying ?
…Contract Law is based on” Offer and Acceptance”… they could have walked.
In hindsight we did them a favour…given there was no line -up to purchase.
My only “sin” is our purchase established a new assessment benchmark for area to some degree.
Our sons bought a condo as Covid was ramping up…the sellers likewise had to sell….they were paranoid about Covid and restricted buyers viewing. This too was a stagnant listing. I paid for a Home Inspection…turned out great…well- built with excellent rain screen system. Their strata also allows pets and rentals. I thought those were “bad “points… but in retrospect they may be even more desirable for re -sale.
We are saviours for sellers !!! (….not bullies)
Retail is now online. Bought a newspaper lately? – Garth
Garth news is now online – googled lately? Lol
#134 Hmm on 03.03.23 at 12:52 pm
@#48 Quintilian on 03.02.23 at 4:36 pm
“As oft stated, I am not calling any bottom, top or middle. Stats are stats. Interpret them as you wish. – Garth”
True, you didn’t call bottom, top or middle.
You simply implied it.
Man up Garth, you can’t be right all the time, and that’s ok. Nobody is.
I found it interesting that the local pumpers are aren’t even attempting to put a good spin on the latest stats.
Facts are facts. Stats are stats. Sorry to confuse you with them. – Garth
++++++++++++++++++++++++
facts are facts unless they don’t line up
with the doomers narrative.
*********
Stats tell you where the economic indicators are …not where we are going.
The stats walked us right into the great financial crisis. Human nature causes economic cycles to repeat. And we only have data for the past 127 years. Maybe AI can harvest all the data and spot the signs of downturns in the future. Data is only as good as the measurement tools and dedication to root out bias.
#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.02.23 at 11:41 pm
#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.02.23 at 9:21 pm
@#91 Ponzie’s Posterior Paradigm
“So what car would be a good fit for your bum?
Or is it just “bigger is better”?”
++++
Of course!
Thats why your most famous Austrian…. Arnie…..drives a Hummer.
——————-
Drove a Hummer!
Now he bikes through Vienna.
And supports “green” projects
Xxxxx
Hummers are electric now.