The economy hit a wall at the end of last year. We learned that on Tuesday. Such good news.
Economists, being the goofy guys that they are, thought we’d have annualized growth of 1.6% in the final three months of 2022. Preliminary numbers were close to that, at 1.5%. But when the counting was finished real GDP was 0.0%. Yeah, zero. Flat. After five consecutive quarters of gains.
Media reports called it a “grim reading.” The economy ended the year, “with a thud,” said TD. Housing took a big hit (down 9%) and so did new business investment. In the month of December, in fact, the economy shrank a tad.
Now, remember a recent post telling you that bad news is good news?
Exactly. This report rocks.
First, it reflects inflation. As you know, the rate of price increase has dropped from over 8% to 5.9%. It’s on its way to 3% this year, says the Bank of Canada. This report confirms a cooling-off is indeed happening, despite the hot jobs situation.
Second, GDP at zero validates the CB’s current stance of pausing its rate hikes. This will be confirmed next Wednesday when the rate review announcement is made. Most economists have been coming to the same conclusion lately – our central bankers want to hold the line right until the end of the year. Then, in 2024, as inflation inches down to 2%, we can expect a few weensy, piddley rate chops.
Third, everybody knows the US Fed will hike its key rate later in March, and do so again at least one more time. This may put some downward pressure on the loonie, but the banker boys in Ottawa seem completely willing to see that happen. America has a more entrenched inflation problem than us, in part because of the manufacturing frenzy going on there to support consumer spending, big government and the Ukrainian war.
Fourth, is this the soft landing? Maybe. A gently cooling economy with lots of job creation, a decelerating real estate market (despite the regional eruptions detailed here yesterday), robust consumer spending and fading inflation smells a lot like the Holy Grail. Time will tell. So far, so good.
Finally, the numbers suggest things are not as dire as the hairshirts, nihilists and self-flagellating desperados below decks seem to think. The household savings rate has increased, now sitting at 6% – three times the pre-pandemic level. Borrowing costs have stabilized. The CB is rolling billions off its balance sheet. The federal deficit of $5.5 billion in the latest nine-month period compares with $70 billion in the same period a year earlier. The unemployment rate is down there at a 50-year low.
So, wait. Could the Bank of Canada’s strategy actually be working? Will boss Tiff Macklem be proven right in jacking rates by just the right amount, at just the right time? But won’t this make Pierre Poilievre’s head explode?
“Today’s mostly soft report won’t be a disappointment to policymakers,” says BMO economists, “as the Bank of Canada is openly attempting to take some steam out of the economy.”
And zero-point-zero growth is about as little steam as one could ask for, without pushing things into an outright downturn. The late-year softness was compounded by weak oil and auto production, and growth looks to have firmed a touch at the start of 2023. Growth will need to hold below potential (about 2%) to dampen excess demand and reduce inflation pressures. Today’s result simply reaffirms that the BoC will be on hold at next week’s decision, and if growth remains below potential—as we expect—they will likely stay on the sidelines.”
If this is true, we all just made it through the toughest rate-rising cycle in memory. Nothing broke, at least not seriously. We survived the first global pandemic in a century. (The last one ended with 16% inflation in Canada.) Supply chains are getting better. Food is crazy but two-by-fours are cheaper. The largest European war since 1945 has not spilled over into something worse. National finances are suddenly a lot better, not worse. Stock markets are up a happy little amount (about 5%) so far this year.
And now we know the economy flatlined. Oh, joy.
About the picture: “Blog subscriber since 2019, and have had zero of my comments banned/deleted!” writes Jordan. “This is Lenny. He’s a 1/3 golden retriever and 2/3 Bernese mountain dog (not sure how that works…). Here he is posing for a video I made on how to talk to loved ones about estate planning and other uncomfortable financial conversations.”
136 comments ↓
The Canadian Way – it still works. Well done!
And to get all this it only took us to go into $2.1T in debt for Canadians (now the highest debt to GDP in the western world).
Garth, hope your optimism proves correct – rates hikes take a while to hit the economy…we’ll know by year-end.
Sorry but I don’t believe things are going to be just fine.
First!!
Yogism #55: “I’ll take stock in this update”.
Merry Flatline Day everyone!!!!!
All indications are that the WAR in Ukraine is only to get worse and indirectly spill over to China, India with sanctions.
All leading to crazy inflation, Do you believe that this war in simmering down?
Ain’t that a bed of roses lying ahead…
BoC may go back to rates hike, changing the goal posts while posing as ‘good guys’
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/inflation-family-column-don-pittis-1.6750879
Economists of sort from various banks scratching their heads about ‘hard’, ‘soft’ or ‘no landing’, tells just how precious those square heads are
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/economist-calls-no-landing-recession-scenario-possible-only-in-fantasy-land-1.6291239
As for a ‘flatlined economy’ the only thing that could happen for the near future is a stagnating price on stock market, no direction whatsoever or difficult to tell.
But why not placing your bets!?
Spinning 0 % GDP growth with severely understated inflation as a good news, (i.e. the reality is actually a real GDP decline) requires quite some guts.
we all just made it through the toughest rate-rising cycle in memory.
Now that was funny.
Rates should be and will above the real inflation or else inflation wins. Looking at the exchange rates and the cost of imports fueling further inflation as US/EU continue to raise rates and our chicken little cuts.
It is literally hitting the fan with negative real growth, combined with strongly negative real rates and huge inflation of necessities.
I will be sending a bag of adult diapers to the central bankers. They will need it.
RE: Most economists have been coming to the same conclusion lately – our central bankers want to hold the line right until the end of the year. Then, in 2024, as inflation inches down to 2%, we can expect a few weensy, piddley rate chops.
=======================================
Sounds like hopium more than anything else.
In other words, the BOC is willing to let consumers take it on the chin some more just to keep the party going a little bit longer. Sad.
Wouldn’t that be nice.
Dear Economists:
FFS stop annualizing partial numbers when you have the yearly numbers and drawing ridiculous conclusions from them that are utter nonsense.
– Yours truly,
Søren Angst
——–
GDP, CAD $(x 1,000,000)
Jan = 2,017,478
Dec = 2,068,605
+2.53%
Nov = 2,071,062
Dec = 2,068,605
-0.12%
The only other 2022 negative number was for Jan 2022 when GDP dropped by
-0.24%
from Dec 2021.
——————-
For what was a tough year all around, Canada did pretty good in 2022 if you were to ask me.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610043401
@#120 Faron’s fury
“But, hey, feel free to keep rooting for a guy who enjoys antisemitic memes, cheers on racist jerks and sells deadly products that kill by the dozens, simps for putin, simps for Xi and all the rest.”
+++
“spittle flecked invective”…..again comes to mind.
Flop Drops.
I saw someone asking 6k to rent a townhouse per month.
The first comment by someone, was something along the lines of have we lost our damn minds.
If you want value in Greater Vancouver at the moment that means finding something South of the Murky Fraser, or something East of Pitt River.
Sure you can find something that needs major rehabilitation in Chilliwack for around 500k, add another hundred thousand dollars to this for every 20 kilometres travelled on the Highway of Jeers.
These guys found a nice house in a park-like setting for a monthly nut less than the townhouse rental asking price.
The details…
Original ask 1.24
Assessment 1.06
Just sold for 960k
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2716140/23247-BIRCH-AVENUE-Maple-Ridge-BC/
I got half-way to work this morning, saw a couple of accidents and was suddenly reminded that I get paid sick days if I’m at work or not, so I turned around.
The City of Vancouver didn’t bother plowing the roads this morning, maybe they were just making sure everyone plowed as much money into real estate instead…
M48BC
Recession, act accordingly.
Lots and lots of positive signs for sure. So why is the comment section here so hostile? Symptom of a much broader problem: the cynical, long-term weaponization of the Republican / right-wing voter base for economic and political gain. Our mini Trumpists here feed on that poison daily
Rupert Murdoch just testified in court that not only did he know that Fox News hosts spread lies about the 2020 presidential election being stolen from Donald Trump, he confessed that he had allowed them to keep on doing so on air to millions of viewers.
Straight from the horse’s mouth. Distrust and lies is simply part of the playbook
‘Food is crazy but two-by-fours are cheaper.’…
Yippie.. hungry families should rejoice.. Throw another 2×4 on the barbie, mate..
Garth, an interesting number change in key economic data for Canada in 2022:
CAD $
Retail Trade = 734,913,368
GDP (Dec) = 2,068,605,000
Consumer Spending * = 1,470,817,000
RT/GDP = 36%
CS/GDP = 71%
RT/CS = 50%
Normally Cdn Consumer Spending is in the low to mid 60%’s in Canada. In 2022, the % more resembles that of the USA at 71%.
————–
* a.k.a. by StatCan: Detailed household final consumption expenditure
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610012401
Retail Trade
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=2010000801
GDP
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610043401
May all Canadastan rejoice! For we have the most competent and upstanding leaders our peoplekind could ever hope for. Not! Let us stand together with trolls in fatigues, and sing in unison ” it’s a long way, to Tipperary, it’s a long way, to go.” You can do it, Canadians!
All may look and sound great on the macro-economic scene, but if you are buying groceries, paying rent or just trying to live, it’s tough sledding with very little hope on the horizon for basic costs. Cost of living numbers do not reflect reality on the ground.
Tiff is in a jam. According to the holy trinity of the 3 legged stool Tiff can only choose 2 of the following 3 policies to be under his control.
1. control interest rates
2. control curreny exchange rates
3. control the free flow of capital
What will he choose? Interest rates is a no brainer because he is terrified of a viscious housing crash and all the misery that would follow.
If Tiff chose capital controls he would turn Canada into a banana republic so he must allow the Canadian dollar to be pummelled. Buy US dollars now and sell them when the Canadian dollar fall to 62 cents and or maybe buy a 1 year $US GIC. Later on if interest rates continue to surprise on the high side, buy quality equities at bargain prices. Patience will reward those with cash.
#19 Dolce Vita
* $ (x1,000) for GDP, RT and CS.
All true but… I think I’ll keep the “Mission Accomplished” banner on the shelf for now.
We all made it? Over half of Canadians living paycheque to paycheque. Food banks are bursting at the seams as 60% increase in Canadians who don’t have food on the table – especially healthy food for their children. Many working long hours just to make ends meet. Household debt is at its highest at 177%. What kind of life is this??
Thanks for the blog Garth
I really appreciate you continually updating your forecast as more information comes available. It’s very helpful and like I said before don’t bet against Garth.
I will not be voting conservative next election I think PP is just spinning a yarn to brainwash voters, but I guess that’s the way it is in politics.
Spin untruths as no one cares anymore.
Not much left, no NDP, no Liberal, no greens and no mad max
Rhinos?
Have a great day.
How low will the dollar go? I still want to go to Trader Joe’s and dream about going to Hawaii every 3 years.
DELETED
0% GDP growth probably isn’t surprising, given that residential real estate alone accounts for an off-the-wall approximately 10% of total GDP. A totally insane number. When houses plop, so does the overall GDP.
Residential real estate accounts for 6.8% of GDP. Not 25%. – Garth
Why anyone would take a CB projection seriously at this point is beyond me. The inflation numbers they throw out are arbitrary. They need a new crystal ball.
a market in babies?
https://www.occrp.org/en/storykillers/figures-behind-eliminalia-also-run-surrogacy-businesses-accused-of-baby-trafficking
The majority of the new jobs created since 2022 were public sector jobs. So this created more debts, doesn’t it
Incorrect. – Garth
BTW Garth, I was expecting a GDP hit in Dec 2022 since Retail Trade in that month was very low vs. the average:
Dec 2022 = +1.6%
Dec Average since 2002, incl. Dec 2022 = +10.2%
or about 16% of what it is on average.
RT was 36% of GDP in 2022 so a much lower than average Dec number made itself felt in the months GDP growth rate of -0.12%.
1 data point.
These are all the 2022 GDP m/m growth rates from Jan to Dec:
-0.24%, 0.66%, 0.66%, 0.14%, 0.20%, 0.26%, 0.20%, 0.21%, 0.16%, 0.06%, 0.08%, -0.12%
————–
Ya, a 4th Qtr slow down but certainly not the end of the World.
N’est panique pas I say.
Losses across the TSX board today, it lost about 2% for February, but Bank of Nova Scotia was a great bargain today, down 6.5% at one point, closing around 5.5%, hope you loaded up, it is also a good dividend payer and it is a short-term dip.
January was the best producer for equities in the past 20 years, so a little drawback was expected for February, do not worry, be happy, the downward pressure came from multiple variables.
Our younger generation seem to be the most vulnerable and suffering the biggest fraud on-line incidents because they are more prone to making larger purchases of higher-priced items online, it’s how they increasingly keep building their financial percentage activity on line.
We all think differently, I always believe that the price for any given market price is the real price, it’s how we figure out what changes will occur to change that price, study your products, and do not throw darts to pick your investment.
The only true way to stay invested and grow long term is with a great financial investment advisor who understands and sticks with quality ETFs.
Looks like there are plenty of Ford customers upset, alleging that Ford Dealerships have been price gouging customers and may pay the price for their unnecessary price increase as customers look at how the dealerships squeezed the public into excessive cost for them, only time and future vehicle shopping will tell. Roughly 10 percent of dealers have reportedly taken advantage of increasingly long wait times for popular Ford models by trying to charge above MSRP and “gouge” customers. Ford CEO Jim Farley knows who they are, and they will feel Ford’s wrath in their future vehicle allocation deals with the automaker, which was made clear on Thursday’s fourth-quarter 2021 earnings call. Farley also hinted at a new go-to-market strategy and customer experience for those who buy EVs that may be in development, which could try to circumvent gouging dealers.
Quote of the day: Life begins at the end of your comfort zone, it does not matter how rich you are, you know when you have been ripped off.
the right to be forgotten laws backfired meant to protect seemed to have backfired….
reputation management company that promises to “erase your past.”
https://www.occrp.org/en/storykillers/eliminalia-a-reputation-laundromat-for-criminals
This is what happens when you begin to crash RE, clearly people aren’t buying like they used to, they can’t afford monthlies and banks won’t qualify them. This to me just proves RE in Canada has a long way to go down, rate hikes from last summer onwards haven’t even made way thru market yet. RE is too much of out GDP, its taken biggest hit of course the economy isn’t going to grow.
I just finished doing my taxes and it looks like I owe Ukraine $9,382.41
More crypto craziness
[email protected]
BINANCE USED CUSTOMER FUNDS FOR ITS OWN PURPOSES IN A MOVE SIMILAR TO FTX SCANDAL: REPORT
Last Salvo.
Hard Times
I have to say that today 2 Tweets struck a chord. The common theme is people falling upon hard times which you read about near daily in the Social Media now it seems.
First is some kid in Seattle not happy about the high cost of Rent mainly, similar grievances to our Cdn kids?
https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1630370194961956864
People will go to extreme lengths to keep their home, throwing out the door all Financial common sense, by Ron the Mortgage Guy …
“Wow Some Real Estate Disaster Stories Even Shock Me: Thought I Had Seen Everything But No”
https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1630574280202174464
—————
Garth’s Cadre by in large a privileged group. Not all it seems are. I give thanks every day I get up for my financial well being. The above is in part why.
FWIW.
Agree that this is great news. Hopefully shallow recession coming, reset, then 10 year sprint.
And what is the point of economists of they can’t even get close in complex times. They seem to miss everything these days.
The EU DisinfoLab report was released in conjunction with “Story Killers,” a new international collaborative journalism project investigating the disinformation-for-hire-industry. “Story Killers” was coordinated by French non-profit Forbidden Stories and included reporters from dozens of media outlets, including OCCRP.
According to EU DisinfoLab, ANI used reports provided by Canadian think tank International Forum for Rights and Security (IFFRAS) as the “backbone” for more than 200 articles published between May 2021 and January 2023.
Many of the reports involved comments allegedly made at conferences organized by the think tank. EU DisinfoLab found that most of the 70 academics and experts said to have spoken at these conferences “did not exist at all,” while a handful who could be identified denied knowing about the events.
….”The think tank’s website falsely mentions real Canadian universityprofessors as participants in a conference that they never attended, even concocting false quotes by these academics. We had already observed this identity-hijacking pattern
https://www.disinfo.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/20220222-BS-report-FINAL.pdf
Are we heading to World War III, or is Orwell right that we will just get perpetual wars abroad that never seems to end.
Remember that Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, India and China produce a lot of food, natural resources and minerals.
Meanwhile, here in Canada we have vast reserves of agricultural land, gold, diamond, lumber and fresh water, but the doofus we have as PM refuses to make use of our resources.
#37 Leo Trollstoy
THAT was good.
Zen.
BRACE.
It will be more that that next year since Anita has decided to send more tanks and stuff to Ukraine than before:
https://twitter.com/AnitaAnandMP/status/1630010755058892800
Looks like we are heading for US 0.60 loonie now. Book that cruise to Iceland my wife wants us to go on asap to lock in the prices.
#21 Leo Trollsky…wow, how did you get off so easy?
#42 Jay
Well, Jay.
Our PM according to the Globe & Mail seems to make use of Gov China resources. It’s all good.
https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1630532879468961793
https://twitter.com/canmericanized/status/1630476590957178882
————-
Oh, and Faron … here is some Climate Change red veggie and/or cricket meat dangling from a stick for you that can be heated on an EV grille:
https://twitter.com/DrLoupis/status/1630199035733606400
Is the glass half empty or half full – beats me but this rollercoaster has more twists and turns it’s no wonder that even supposed “experts” haven’t a clue what’s ahead
To be a competent investor, one must know which way the wind is blowing. Therefore, in my opinion, the BLNGR stocks look very appealing to me. These stocks have huge potential, and are truly safe harbors moving forward. I’m excited!
• Boeing Company
•Lockheed Martin Corp
•Northrop Grumman Corp
•General Dynamics Corp
•Raytheon Company
Let’s all hope and pray for a very successful warmongering 2023! Not!
All the numbers look too convenient,And at the correct time too, always seems to happen this way!! Suck and Blow is a powerful force! Just like Fomo.
Every bank in the world is jacking rates but our Genis banker just nailed it.. Pfft the Mac.
If the BOC stalls right now we’re gonna end up with a Canadian Peso . That will breed more inflation .
Our CB is in a pickle unfortunately. something gotta give and I bet will be the housing market.
A huge crash coming , inevitable
Deadbeats. The A.I. robots are running the show. You will own nothing and be happy.
These electric ‘smart’ cars are designed to be total control.
https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/28/ford_self_repossessing_patent/
A patent application from automaker Ford was published last week for embedded vehicle systems that facilitate an automobile’s repossession, including autonomously moving it to a repossession agency.
The patent [PDF], which was originally filed in August, covers more ways to combat non-payment.
—- While you were being distracted with balloons:
.UK grocery price inflation hits record 17.1%S (reuters.com)
—- Corvid is designed to be forever. Is there anything it cannot do? Our rulers playing the Long Game.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a91912ac-b1e7-11ed-8771-87233f7ef731?shareToken=f1ff8330b9e2b09e3d7dddd74d0ccc50
What are 15-minute cities and why are antivaxers so angry about them?
Conspiracy theorists claim that attempts to make urban areas more walkable are part of a global plan to suppress civil liberties
# 8 Dave: “Do you believe that this war in simmering down?
I believe the west will will continue to double down until we are all in.
#2 Joe on 02.28.23 at 3:17 pm
“And to get all this it only took us to go into $2.1T in debt for Canadians (now the highest debt to GDP in the western world).”
Canada has a lot of economic warts, but your statement is simply wrong.
In fact, on the debt to GDP ratio, we rank as one of the best in the western world.
Lots of economic distortions, but your hyperbole does injustice to the cause of highlighting the real problems.
There are several us bears that point out the facts without misrepresenting the truth.
First, it reflects inflation. As you know, the rate of price increase has dropped from over 8% to 5.9%. It’s on its way to 3% this year, says the Bank of Canada. This report confirms a cooling-off is indeed happening, despite the hot jobs situation.
______________________________
They can say anything when they’re just pulling numbers out of their backsides.
US consumer confidence down for the second month in a row.
With all the conflicting lines of reasoning floating around it seems that any news is good news or bad news. Time will tell.
Just spin the bottle until something works.
“BUDGET 2023: BC government to encourage homeowners to create secondary rental suites.”
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-homeowners-secondary-rental-suites-incentive-pilot-project
Also renters will finally get their $400 rental rebates, that will help pay for 2 nights accommodation.
Dealing with 50 applicants trying to shoehorn themselves into my In laws Basement Suite, my only thoughts are this with the current market mayhem, both buying and renting.
If you like your rental, stay put, cherish it.
Buying only makes sense a certain distance from the city, because the inner city price reductions have yet to surpass the increased carrying costs, because that particular cart is still coming down the hill with one wonky wheel…
M48BC
To #22.
The first intelligent comment I’ve read on this blog in 6 years.
Congratulations. You obviously know what you are talking about.
The Tiffster talks a big game, but his hands are tied by T2’s profligate spending. The US bond market will kill the golden goose and Tifferoo will have to fight a losing battle as the buck disintegrates.
Canadian politicians should be hanging their heads in shame for milking a one horse strategy (housing) without exerting any cost controls.
They lead us down the garden path like conscripts to the front line slaughterhouse.
The sad part is that it was deliberate. Controlling costs forces them to work for their pay and that is simply not a liberal option.
GARTH ET AL:
In city of Mississauga, they are having meetings (maybe public) for 15 minute cities.
My father told me what happened in WWII.
Concentration Camps…..so when ever you hear
15 minute city, remember….
Colonel Bonnie Klink, and Sargent Doug Schultz…will start pushing hard for these new cities…being all green and all. Look no cars…no you can’t have one of those, no you can’t leave…oh you want to leave…you pay tax to leave…a camp is a camp is a camp.
Where is Hogan when we need him.
#17 Marco
Is your last name Mendicino??
Just checking.
Not really seeing a lot of optimism among my friends
Housing search is dire
AFTER an apparent 25% drop in our house search
Anything half decent still goes for at least $1.3
That’s $260000 down, monthly of $6000 if you can get a rate of 5%, plus property taxes, utilities, insurance
For a very average place
God help you if you have kids who need childcare or really any other life expenses such as eating
Well according to my ex-realtor
“You know as well that it’s always best to put your money in your home rather than to pay rent. Just a thought.”
I showed him a listing where someone bought a house last year for $3M, renovated, and now has it listed for lease for $5000/month.
“I totally agree that some people cannot buy and renting is the way to go because they can’t afford the down payment”
I asked him if renting would have been the way to go for the people who bought in Brampton last year and have now REALIZED a 28% price drop (I’ve seen up to half a mil)
Moving on..
Electric vehicle owners should only be allowed to charge their vehicles using wind and solar power, otherwise it’s just pretend!
And what do we call flat GDP with high inflation? Stagflation.
And what do we call flat GDP with an increasing population? Lower GDP per capita, and a declining standard of living. And as long as home prices stay where they are, we can expect things to get worse. The educated/in demand people will to escape the real estate lunacy, leaving us with 10 to a 2 bedroom Timmy’s workers. Nothing against Timmy’s workers, mind you, but we won’t have a good economy if it consists of rent seeking real estate ownership and coffee serving, which seems to be what the country is turning into.
Our Maestro ( as Fishman would say) won’t be happy with steerage today noting the comments reflect those similar to the last time he presented the glass as half full.
It would seem the seeds of discontent and disbelief have been successfully sown. Trust in institutions ( including Government and Media ) is low. People are finding it hard to trust everything and everybody, including ‘statistics’.
It isn’t just the previous and current scandals being played out daily in the press such as Biden Family corruption, Russian or Chinese interference in US and Canadian elections, BalloonGate, which public figures flew on the Lolita express, or what propaganda to believe or dismiss about the Ukraine War. That’s just all about ’round up the usual suspects’ and there is plenty to chew on.
It seems it has more to do with everyday blog dogs who know somebody or something that isn’t reflected in ‘statistics’. Somebody who works in construction or renovation, or works as as realtor, appraiser, bankruptcy trustee. Someone who knows how busy lenders of mortgage money currently are not. Someone who follows what listings on Realtor.ca show daily or even keeps a close eye on neighbourhood listings and sales. They may have unpublished information about company layoffs, offices being closed, etc.
Or they may just live in the lower mainland or Van Isle and are going out of their squirrely minds due to the unusual heavy snowfall season this year. The ones in Parksville and Qualicum Beach have a little more tenacity due to their Alberta roots, but the other snowflakes may need our compassion and understanding..
Sorry Garth, but there ain’t no soft landing in a country where Real Estate values are grossly disproportionate to incomes, RE is one of the largest sectors of the economy, while the 2nd, Energy, is actively being disembowelled by the T2 gang. And for the record, I’m not rooting for carnage. The math just doesn’t work.
Respectfully, Jerome.
Or…the GDP will continue to decline well into the negative digits as 2022 rate hikes continue to work their way through the economy.
If we get a “tax the rich” budget in March with continued anti-business initiatives all bets are off. The tax on foreign property owners is already creating problems with the US.
Predicting the future is truly a mugs game.
#45 Nonplused on 02.27.23 at 6:01 pm
—————————–
EXCELLENT!
Just went to the buddies farm grabbed 7 chickens 6 dozen free range stuff. $200 my deal. Grabbed a side of 1/4 of cow from the other bros farm. $1500.00 cut and wrapped and that’s CHEAP these days $5lb incl. steaks. Costco hamburger $10lb.
Not all is well for many people. Some are paddling pretty hard. There are all sorts of risks out there incl a possible sovereign debt crisis. The global debts will NEVER be repaid.
The US has about $250k gov debt per tax payer.
As for me market and housing melts effects me zero thankfully. I planned way long time ago.
Spend that toilet paper fast. The loonie has lost 85% of its purchase power since 2000! More to come.
#41 jess on 02.28.23 at 4:46 pm
The EU DisinfoLab report was released in conjunction with “Story Killers,” a new international collaborative journalism project investigating the disinformation-for-hire-industry. “Story Killers” was coordinated by French non-profit Forbidden Stories and included reporters from dozens of media outlets, including OCCRP.
———————–
I’ve been following this in the European papers, too.
And you think Foxi News is bad (even Murdoch admits it).
Wait until fake news created by AI comes fully on stream.
EV fans….
Does your EV come with electro- shock therapy paraphenalia ?
#42 Jay on 02.28.23 at 4:49 pm
Are we heading to World War III, or is Orwell right that we will just get perpetual wars abroad that never seems to end.
==========================
Both…
Tesla is building a car plant in old Mexico…si senor the gringos in Canada don’t have the welcome wagon open for Musk. Canada is supposed to be the electric car inovation centre of the world but Musk bypassed us. Equity; diversity and inclusion doesn’t crank up Tesla folks of the world. Is equity, diversity and inclusion an industrial policy?
Tiff the stiff, Conman Carney and Poloz the clown. They screwed Canada royally. The central bank and the government are your worst enemy. The government creates the problem then finds the solution. Its like they’ll break your leg and give you crutches. T2 debt and continued spending will lower Canadians standard of living. Who cares, he’s good looking and charming, remember politics is a popularity contest now.
Our currency is falling off a cliff, the Mexican peso went from 17 to 13.50 .Tens of thousands retirees in Mexico now have a lower standard thanks to our Canadian Cartel. Most were forced there because they can’t afford to live in Canada.
T2 green energy agenda will destroy Canadians ,lower standard of living. Canadians want to be poorer under his regime. Thank you T2.
#62 Brian on 02.28.23 at 6:25 pm
Electric vehicle owners should only be allowed to charge their vehicles using wind and solar power, otherwise it’s just pretend!
—
Nope, charging a BEV off of a utility-scale grid, even one powered by coal, beats a small, cold engine handily.
@59 mikey…….newscast tonight sez flights and passengers to be limited in peak periods from Pearson Airport. The Hotel California is full. You can check out anytime you want, but you can never leave…..
#59 miketheengineer on 02.28.23 at 6:14 pm
GARTH ET AL:
In city of Mississauga, they are having meetings (maybe public) for 15 minute cities.
My father told me what happened in WWII.
Concentration Camps…..so when ever you hear
===========================
I’ve pondered this topic….I can’t see them happening.
Far too many variables to overcome and control.
It would literally require military and slave labour. Gov’t can’t even get a single affordable housing project in place…it’s incompetent.
15 minute Cities??? maybe in 150 years….
Charlie our Cat wasn’t his normal self tonight when I got home. It became clear very quickly that there was something camping out under the couch. Thinking it was the normal fare, I slowly tipped the couch back so Charlie could take care of bidness.
Charlie shot under there like an orange cannonball, the resulting commotion and shrieks as he sunk his remaining 3 canines into our unfortunate guest, told me this was something new.
After about 3 minutes worth of growls and protesting, I managed to pry our now lifeless visitor from Charlie’s grasp. Cute little thing, completely snow white except for the tip of its tail, which was black. Obviously some kind of tiny weasel. A quick Google revealed it to be an “Ermine”. Never heard of, or ever seen one of these my whole life.
Too bad this one had to meet Mr. C though. Apparently, they like to eat mice, voles, shrews, and even rats (those are pretty big for this little fella), just like Cats. Viscous and relentless little guys. I’d have rather put him back outside alive. Alas, Mr. C does not do “alive” when meeting our furry visitors. Hopefully there are more of them around here.
The learning never stops when you own a Cat. Did you know that the local Northern short-tailed shrew is venomous and uses echolocation? No? That’s because you’ve never wondered why your Cat killed one, but for once gave it up right away, and didn’t want to eat it – thereby prompting you to look up what the thing is.
I’ve been exploring the Bing chatbot, which has ChatGPT on the backend but also combines some other powerful tools and does web page searches and analyzes the data before giving a response.
An example prompt: “Summarize the blog post ‘The straw man’ by Garth Turner from the Greater Fool.”
Bing’s bot response:
“The blog post “The straw man” by Garth Turner from the Greater Fool is a commentary on the recent decline of inflation in Canada and its implications for the housing market and interest rates. Turner argues that Tiff Macklem, the governor of the Bank of Canada, is unfairly blamed for fueling a housing bubble by keeping rates low and buying bonds. He suggests that Macklem is actually doing his job well by supporting the economy during a pandemic and that inflation will eventually lower as demand recovers. He also warns that house prices are unsustainable and that buyers should be cautious of taking on too much debt.”
And then this prompt:
“In the blog post “The straw man” by Garth Turner, do the comments in the comment section agree or disagree with the blog post and why?”
And the (very telling) response:
“The comments in the comment section from the blog post “The straw man” by Garth Turner do not have a clear consensus on whether they agree or disagree with the blog post. Some of the comments support Turner’s views on inflation, interest rates and housing, while others challenge or question them. Some of the comments also express appreciation or criticism of Turner’s writing style, tone and humor. Some of the comments are off-topic or irrelevant to the blog post.”
Bing’s bot even does a reasonable job of summarizing all Greater Fool blog posts .
Prompt: “Wht are ten of the most important topics that Garth Turner has covered in his glog “The Greater Fool”?”
Response:
Based on web search results, some of the most important topics that Garth Turner has covered in his blog “The Greater Fool” are:
The troubled future of real estate in Canada and other countries
The impact of inflation, interest rates and monetary policy on the economy and personal finance
The benefits of a balanced and diversified portfolio for investing
The challenges and opportunities of retirement planning and income
The risks and rewards of cryptocurrencies, commodities and other alternative assets
The effects of demographics, immigration, politics and social issues on the housing market
The importance of financial literacy, discipline and independence
The pitfalls of debt, speculation and emotional decision-making
The wisdom and humor of dogs (especially Airedales) compared to cats
The personal stories, questions and opinions of his blog readers
#18 Make my 2X4 medium rare
Hahaha…
I like my 2X4 medium rare too…..shelter of any sort and food is becoming destructively expensive….glad I have more years behind than ahead….
I love Woody Harrelson (SNL)
Don’t hate the player hate the game he speaks of.
” The largest European war since 1945 has not spilled over into something worse.”
YET !!
There is a chart at the top of this article that tells the tale of two US housing bubbles:
https://mishtalk.com/economics/case-shiller-home-prices-slide-another-0-5-percent-actual-drop-is-much-worse
If the theory of “bubble symmetry” holds (that being that the going down looks like a mirror image of the coming up) then it could be 10 years before housing stabilizes and it will be at 2013ish price levels.
Will that be so bad? Well, if you are paying 6% on your mortgage and all your “equity” payments are barely keeping up with the decline so the money just vaporizes, it might seem so. But it’s still a place to live, so it might not be worse than renting. And it don’t really affect the economy much; the seller already got the money. There is just no “new” money being magically “marked to market” into existence. Sucks to be the one holding the bag, but somebody has to. That’s the way bubbles work. We can’t all get rich just by fudging numbers on a spreadsheet. Someone always has to end up holding the bag. And as with poker, if you don’t know who the patzy is, it’s probably you.
————————————
Still, my bet will be no capital gains for Trudeau/Singh to tax for quite some time. Unless they do something retroactive because they think it is better to have all the old people in government subsidized old age facilities rather than paying for it themselves. Which they might. Trudeau/Singh actually hate people who pay for things themselves. It’s hard to buy their votes.
————————————-
It’s too bad the conservatives don’t have a leader that may satisfy the Laurentian elite like in the glory days of Mulroney. They are going to keep voting for the Trudeau/Singh coalition, despite the trajectory towards socialism and tyranny. One day in the not-too-distant future we will wake up to find that we have traded what remains of our freedom for a fleeting grasp of false security and economy sized dreams of hope, all lies. But I don’t need to remind the fine readers of this blog that “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”
Personally, I’m not willing to trade the future for a little peace and quiet today. But I only have one vote. This is Canada, after all. If you don’t live in Toronto or Vancouver, your vote don’t matter. We could all the rest of us in this fine land select a specific Canada Goose and all vote for it, 100%, and Trudeau/Singh would still be the joint prime minister in the morning. Well, except for Quebec, because they would all vote for a bowl of poutine, despite the instructions being quite clear. Still Trudeau/Singh though, with a bowl of poutine representing Quebec and a goose representing the rest of us. And then guess what’s for dinner?
Had to listen to the wife tonite and turned on Global News Calgary.
Budget day today…UCP tabled a great budget…something for everyone including me…a path to paying off Albertas debt again.
Of course I didn’t get to see an interview with Danielle about it….nope…just Rachel’s tired old face accusing the UCP of doing a bad job.
Next up a random socialist from somewhere pointing out that university in Alberta costs a lot still…and to end the analysis Jagmeet got on to mention he deleted Tick Tock from his phone.
So sick of most of Canada….sorry.
There are three key items that young working class or even mid-income people are concerned with:
1. large inflationary pressures in grocery stores prices
and core non-discretionary prices (food > 10–12% per
year). I don’t see this slowly down much over the next
year. These people are not the ones who worry if the price of an AirCanada ticket to Maui has gone up only slightly.
2. gas prices (in YVR, 1.85 per litre is very high). This will likely only get worse over the next year
3. huge spikes in rents, and very low vacancy rates. This
has gotten much worse over the past year (as I predicted 5 months ago), and will only accentuate in most areas of the country over the next year (especially our mid and large cities..except the province of Quebec) due to huge influx of immigrants, and the fact that young people are unable to purchase owing to unaffordable real estate (except for those of course who inherit or otherwise).
My prediction is that there will be few job loses as so many boomers retired during the pandemic. However, consumer spending will eventually take a large hit. The recession will be delayed, and it will look very different than past recessions owing to the very different demographics.
PhD Stem, student of macroeconomics.
#71 Unpinned on 02.28.23 at 7:18 pm
Tesla is building a car plant in old Mexico…si senor the gringos in Canada don’t have the welcome wagon open for Musk. Canada is supposed to be the electric car inovation centre of the world but Musk bypassed us. Equity; diversity and inclusion doesn’t crank up Tesla folks of the world. Is equity, diversity and inclusion an industrial policy?
———-
Yes, according to Larry Fink, Klaus Schwab and the private-public-partnership “stakeholders” of the world.
The Marxists have penetrated and subverted all levels of government, academia, media and now industry. These bastards are relentless and they will continue to usher in their communist dystopia unabated because libtards really don’t understand what they’re signing up for and when they do finally realize, it will be too late. /rant
#71 Unpinned on 02.28.23 at 7:18 pm
Canada is supposed to be the electric car inovation centre of the world but Musk bypassed us.
Whilst I agree to the grievances towards the current far-left regime, it’s not too hard to know that was never going to happen. Government Motors still operates in ON only due to massive subsidies courtesy of you and I. It doesn’t make sense to manufacture in with a super high CoL, unionised workforce. Mexico can be almost as cheap labour as China was two decades ago.
Check your LG tv, it will almost certainly read “MADE IN MEXICO” huh, NAFTA gift keeps on giving! Never mind the panel, PCB assemblies, screws and probably casework are all actually made in China & Korea then just screwed together and boxed in some Maquiladora; isn’t global taxation great?
I guess I’ll wade in to the mud…gotta go with Zoltan Pozsar on this.
All economic crisis are where credit and collateral meet according to Mr. Pozsar.
In Canada, I have to believe most credit out there is backed by house values, at least for the average consumer.
I’m thinking Mr. Macklem will have to support the currency as per NAFTA, and to avoid further inflation through imported goods. The sacrifice will be the average overindebted Canadian.
Our fate rests with the Americans not Tiff. They have way more room to maneuver than we do.
Wouldn’t downward pressure in the loonie (meaning rising cost of imports) be……inflationary?
If our bankers are saying they can’t follow the fed because one if the reasons is that Canadians are “more indebted” collectively than Americans, and our loonie plops which drives us imports increasing inflationary pressures, then this becomes a story of it being better to have been a grasshopper than an ant
Sit down folks
Vancouver Property tax 10.7 %
But that’s just the start.
And then we have the NDP provincial Govt
Cash Fandango.
Capital Expenditures announced on Budget Day.
$13.2 Billion for bridges, tunnels, etc.
$11.2 Billion for hospitals, schools, etc.
$ 5.2 Billion for Universities.
But that’s not all.
:)
A Renters tax rebate for people earning 80k- 60K or less.
$586 million for homeless and drug addiction.
$1 Billion for health care staffing
And.
Free prescription Contraception Pills.
The cost?
2023-24 a $4.2 billion dollar deficit.
2024-25 a $3.8 billion dollar deficit.
2025-26 a $ 3.2 billion dollar defict.
One thing I’m 100% able to correctly predict….Ponzies property taxes going uppa uppa uppa
:)
Almost forgot.
BC Transit/Skytrain ( green green green people mover) received nothing in todays budget.
However.
Trudeau is visiting tomorrow…….
#130 BillinBC on 02.28.23 at 3:09 pm
So, Faron…can you cite any “reliable” source to support your opinion?
—
Safer than a car that protects you from crashes is not having technology that gets in wrecks in the first place.
@AnonyMusk
So, you told me that the increases in money supply drove inflation. Right? Then why, over the long run, does growth in the money supply outpace inflation? And why are there periods where inflation and M2 are correlated and other periods where there is anti-correlation?
https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/
IH and the weasel
Cool to see weasels and sorry to hear it croaked. However, you can still skin it and brain tan the skin for posterity. Watch the musk glands, haha- you’ll know if you nick one, trust me. Probably a least weasel at that size. The larger ones can get 10-12” long without tail- fairly close to the size of a small mink.
Story time: as kids with .22s, we would often snowshoe through the cedar swamps for snowshoe hares. Find the bright shiny black marble and it magically turns into a hare’s eye. This was also the weasels’ hunting ground. When a weasel appears and starts flipping around, the hares freeze and can barely move. It’s fascinating to see- sort of like vampires holding their victim in thrall. Then the weasel runs up to bite the spinal cord at the back of the skull. Probably 1/10 the size of a hare or less. I watched it play out a number of times and it was always pretty similar. Weird and cool. Deadly dudes. Your cat must be ghetto because weasels fear nothing.
Yet we have food prices continuing to rise at a fast pace and housing heating up again, in addition to rising US rates. Things may get interesting.
#59 miketheengineer on 02.28.23 at 6:14 pm
^Our Rulers are pushing us to give up cars.
It’s voluntary for now. Voluntary. Wink wink.
https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/translink-money-bus-you-scrap-car-6563199
TransLink will give you bus money for 16 months if you scrap your car
It’s meant to help make transportation in Vancouver more sustainable
— Have I posted this already? Here goes in case.
Oh our caring whacky Rulers. Is there anything they won’t think up?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/digital-id-passport-uk-tech-william-hague-tony-blair-3bsrwswmz
https://archive.is/NI1N9
Give digital IDs to all, urge Tony Blair and William Hague
One-time rivals unite to demand radical tech revolution in the British state
Everyone in Britain should be given a digital ID incorporating their passport, driving licence, tax records, qualifications and right to work as the cornerstone of a “technology revolution”, Sir Tony Blair and Lord Hague of Richmond say today
So many people just seem so clued out about monetary policy, especially mister “excuse me if I don’t think about monetary policy”.
Growth in money supply leads to inflation, but not directly as you need to subtract population and economic growth and productivity.
For example, back in the days of gold standard currency, when the railways became large networks, the price of a chicken & other farm items as purchased in the cities dropped by about 70%. This deflation had a big net increase in the wealth of average citizens.
There has been similar increases in productivity in many industries over the past couple decades due to IT & automation, but the deflation and wealth increases haven’t been passed down because of money printing, which benefits the asset owning class.
Try getting into the better restaurants on the weekend , or cruises, flights down south etc. etc. Plenty of boomers won the real estate lottery and now they’re spending it.
Still plenty of opportunities for anyone who wants to work in the right industries, but overall standards of living have been robbed by the money printers.
let’s party like no tomorrow then.
#91 Faron on 02.28.23 at 9:53 pm
#130 BillinBC on 02.28.23 at 3:09 pm
So, Faron…can you cite any “reliable” source to support your opinion?
—
Safer than a car that protects you from crashes is not having technology that gets in wrecks in the first place.
*********
When the streets become the test labs and drivers become real crash test dummies.
#92 Faron on 02.28.23 at 10:01 pm
@AnonyMusk
So, you told me that the increases in money supply drove inflation. Right? Then why, over the long run, does growth in the money supply outpace inflation? And why are there periods where inflation and M2 are correlated and other periods where there is anti-correlation?
————————————–
Because there is a lag in between M2 increase and inflation showing in ‘statistics’ (usually 12-18 months but can vary) and also variability in the velocity of money.
Your question is like the expectation that based on certain amount of rain (356 hours in a year) it should rain exactly 1 hour (and preferably at midnight) every day.
We did have a relative draught for some time and now the spigot is opened and it will be a s..tstorm for a while. So buckle up.
#84 yvr_lurker on 02.28.23 at 8:46 pm
There are three key items that young working class or even mid-income people are concerned with:
1. large inflationary pressures in grocery stores prices
and core non-discretionary prices (food > 10–12% per
year). I don’t see this slowly down much over the next
year. These people are not the ones who worry if the price of an AirCanada ticket to Maui has gone up only slightly.
2. gas prices (in YVR, 1.85 per litre is very high). This will likely only get worse over the next year
3. huge spikes in rents, and very low vacancy rates. This
has gotten much worse over the past year (as I predicted 5 months ago), and will only accentuate in most areas of the country over the next year (especially our mid and large cities..except the province of Quebec) due to huge influx of immigrants, and the fact that young people are unable to purchase owing to unaffordable real estate (except for those of course who inherit or otherwise).
My prediction is that there will be few job loses as so many boomers retired during the pandemic. However, consumer spending will eventually take a large hit. The recession will be delayed, and it will look very different than past recessions owing to the very different demographics.
PhD Stem, student of macroeconomics.
*******
To add. I recently gooogled the BC Gov and Employment Assistance (social welfare) caseloads are increasing month over month. Will be following those numbers going forward. Today the gov announce a housing allowance increase…not much given the current pricey garbage rentals. The increase is $125…not even a half a paper bag of groceries.
The data is all around us.
#85 Sad commentary on 02.28.23 at 8:47 pm
The problem with Marxist jokes is that they aren’t funny unless everyone gets it.
Check out this one for example:
A Marxist, a socialist, and a nihilist walk into a bar. The bartender says “Sorry guys I can’t serve you, you have to be 21.”
So it sees the prolonged stagflation-ary depression is becoming a reality.
Limited to no growth. If accounting for real inflation it feels like contraction of consumption/severe depression for the majority.
Out of control inflation of necessities – food, rents, basic services that will not go away and will stay high until interest rates become strongly positive for along time (not gonna happen as we all know).
This will limit real consumption.
It seems the central bankers goal is not to fight inflation (they pretend to fight it is just to save face as the thingy is hitting the fan and they are in crap up to their eyeballs) but to further fuel it in ‘order to reduce the debt’ so we can continue with a new debt cycle.
Thank you central bankers. Your efforts won’t go unnoticed.
As velocity picks up after years of being low things can get much worse.
Inflation will not go to 3 % any time soon. And why 3 %, I thought their target was 2.
Inflation will not go to 2 % in this decade either.
Expect more CPI massaging, focusing on ‘core CPIs’ as ‘preferred measure’ (exclude food and rents) and other stupidities and repetition of the mantra that ‘inflation is lowering’ (meaning basterdized CPI) while it rages as a wildfire.
Until the first time buyer can afford a starter home, I believe the real estate market will keep drifting lower. In 1989, I was one of those locked out of the market. By about 1992, I could buy. Remember it well, read Garth’s Toronto Sun columns regularly. Same has to happen this time and for the first time buyer to be able to afford a home, prices will need to fall much more, or interest rates will need to come back down which is unlikely. In the GTA, I think house prices need to fall a lot more yet. Ditto with Vancouver.
#98 DON on 02.28.23 at 11:34 pm
#91 Faron on 02.28.23 at 9:53 pm
#130 BillinBC on 02.28.23 at 3:09 pm
When the streets become the test labs and drivers become real crash test dummies.
—
I’d be fine with that if risk was isolated to the idiot Muskovites. But, the reality is that a super heavy “safe” car like a Tesla is a very capable killing machine and all of the people outside of the car didn’t sign up to be test-dummies. Shoot, even some of the people in the care are unsuspecting victims like some of the people who’ve recently been roasted to a crisp in Tesla fires.
Meanwhile, Elon hold’s stoned, 2AM Twitter spaces to troll his followers with fart sounds. Trash
My neighbour in Lake Country just listed their house for 1.1M last Friday.
Two competing offers first day and went for over asking.
They bought it in 2019 for 650k.
I guess we are back to nutty market.
You seem so bullish on Canada, but the reality is it ranks 20th among developed nations in gross domestic product per capita and productivity, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development data, lagging behind many countries of Europe, the U.S. and the United Kingdom. Who needs productivity when you can fluff up GDP by over 1% by increasing your population by over 1% per year through immigration? And who needs to be productive when you can sit in your shack and let the dirt you own make you rich tax free? Vive la Canada!
#22 Norman Bigbird on 02.28.23 at 4:05 pm
….¨Patience will reward those with cash.¨
i´ve always believed this, and have been saving for over 50 years. Started at 15 and never looked back.
People don´t seem to realize the power they have and rarely vote with their wallets. Potential wealth slipping away.
I buy nearly everything at pennies on the dollar, including groceries. 50+ years of honing buying skills pays off bigly.
We live large, eating organic, traveling and wear designer.
Yes, it is possible. And easy as pie.
I wish more people did this, because they would also know that, to a very large degree, THEY set prices, not business.
Mills are starting to get it, power-saving their hard-earned cash.
Know where to look for deals, don´t be afraid to ask, bargain hard and walk away from stupid prices. Rinse, repeat and become wealthy.
Most stuff is crap anyway.
The federal deficit of $5.5 billion in the latest nine-month period compares with $70 billion in the same period a year earlier
————
This is indeed fantastic news. So can we expect a deficit of less than 7b this year after all the numbers come in?, or should we expect a snap election this spring before that happens?
I’m sorry, what?
I just haven’t been myself since Bed, Bath & Beyond flushed itself down the toilet.
Hmmmm…where does one go now to support the retail economy with habitually addictive useless impulse purchases?
@#104 Faron
“Meanwhile, Elon hold’s stoned, 2AM Twitter spaces to troll his followers with fart sounds.”
+++
He seems to have you hooked.
You talk about him 24/7
The latest German inflation reading comes in today at 9.3%, higher than expected. Meanwhile the ECB is fighting inflation with a policy rate of… 3%! What a fight they’re putting up!
Having kept rates at 0% since the GFC in order to inflate asset bubbles, the central banks are now rather brazenly inflating away all the debt the asset holders took on. What a great job! In so doing they’re eating their seed corn/young, but hey, who cares about them? They’re dirty poor, non-asset-holding peasants!
Maybe the BoC secretly dreams of needing wheelbarrows of cash to buy a loaf of bread…
I spent some time in Central EU couple of weeks ago, and a lot of people think that the war will escalate beyond Ukraine. Just today I’ve learned that Putin recently signed a Bill ending nuclear treaty with the US.
Putin made that announcement days ago – suspending (not abrogating) the START agreement. Get your valid news from the MSM. (But not Fox.) – Garth
#93 Sail Away on 02.28.23 at 10:27 pm
IH and the weasel
Cool to see weasels and sorry to hear it croaked. However, you can still skin it and brain tan the skin for posterity. Watch the musk glands, haha- you’ll know if you nick one, trust me. Probably a least weasel at that size. The larger ones can get 10-12” long without tail- fairly close to the size of a small mink.
Story time: as kids with .22s, we would often snowshoe through the cedar swamps for snowshoe hares. Find the bright shiny black marble and it magically turns into a hare’s eye. This was also the weasels’ hunting ground. When a weasel appears and starts flipping around, the hares freeze and can barely move. It’s fascinating to see- sort of like vampires holding their victim in thrall. Then the weasel runs up to bite the spinal cord at the back of the skull. Probably 1/10 the size of a hare or less. I watched it play out a number of times and it was always pretty similar. Weird and cool. Deadly dudes. Your cat must be ghetto because weasels fear nothing.
____
I quizzed the guys at work, and the only fellas who have seen them are also hunters. I think I did get a good whiff of that musk too. I watched a few vids of Ermines taking out rabbits – amazing given the size difference. Apparently there are a lot of them around here, so that’s good.
Charlie might have got lucky with this one, but he is also a killing machine in his own right. Never had a Cat so driven by instinct.
Has anyone else noticed that people who demand any type of “- justice”, whether it is eco-justice, social-justice or any thing else, all they really mean is that they want to rip something from you and take it for themselves?
It’s bizarre that all of these “Hyphen-Justice” groups want everyone to ignore the law so they can get what they want. Without doing the work to earn it, of course.
I think it’s safe to ignore any group that uses a hyphen and justice together. They are about as real as faux-leather.
US consumer confidence down.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-confidence-ebbs-february-2023-02-28/
Perhaps it the smaller portions in a Big Gulp or less fries in a Super Size.
#32 Consider this on 02.28.23 at 4:25 pm
The majority of the new jobs created since 2022 were public sector jobs. So this created more debts, doesn’t it
Incorrect. – Garth
*********************
No one ever details exactly where the jobs are, so you cannot know the reality. The stats might say ‘private sector’ but are they actually public-private partnerships? Are these new jobs inside of NGOs, where $$ flows are contingent of participation in the Great Reset Agenda 2030 policies?
It’s obfuscation. Like the realtor yesterday who insists that there are no institutional investors in real estate in Canada in spite of the fact that there’s no reliable data on that. When there is no transparency on crucial industries in our economy all we’re left with is a confidence game.
Facts and opinion seldom collide on this blog. – Garth
Hate the game, not the player unless the player also writes the rules for the game. Unfortunately, I think I am only seeing the tip of the iceberg when it comes to rigging the game of success.
How to create a X shortage…
1) Tell people there’s a X shortage.
2) People panic buy X.
3) There’s a X shortage.
Don’t be part of it folks.
Rules and mandates are meant for control by overlords. You know, those people who think they are experts (most are just average) and are really good at whatever they do. I am reminded of a steerage section comment that a PhD was knowing more about less. The rest of us will die sooner if we don’t obey and make their lives easier. Registered personal ID’s are on their way – I can hardly wait (sarc).
There are too many gullible people and useful idiots to fight alone. So live quietly and look for ways to be non-compliant with mandates I disagree while continuing to respect the view of others. After all, I could be wrong and have to dance quickly, deny or lie. Being a straight shooter is usually a burden these days. I have to learn to keep quiet otherwise I will get “cancelled” or sent to a gulag. I would rather sit with people who own nothing around a communal fire eating bugs as dictated.
I see that Canada’s economic productivity is at the bottom. There is too much deadwood as Elon Musk has proven with Twitter. They take more than give or do useless things – bureaucratic behavior, I am looking at you. Can you say boondoggle – our tax dollars in action.
I continue to stay the course and build dry powder mainly by paying down my Helco. 7% does not make sense (cents) for me. I have been aided by timely preferred share redemptions, but it also means I receive less dividend income. It is a wash in my mind. Natural gas is twinging my interest these days.
My pantry is full. The only thing I am missing is a reliable gun. I don’t want one so I will have to rely on an axe and my will if necessary. Spring is approaching. I wonder what food I will successfully grow this year.
Residential real estate accounts for 6.8% of GDP. Not 25%. – Garth
><
Just want to point out that it was reported here as 9.5% a year ago.
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2022/03/31/the-spiral-3/
And when taking the nearly 3% lower GDP of 6.8%, it is still reported by many as too significant of a component.
And I do recall one or two posts where it was highlighted that when all the residential peripherals are factored in, it is in the 20% range.
Then there is this:
https://royalyorkpropertymanagement.ca/news-article/canadian-provinces-depend-on-real-estate-services-for-up-to-1-in-5-gdp-dollars
Canada’s real estate industry is swallowing the country’s whole economy. Well, it’s getting there. RERL represents 13.5% of GDP in 2021…As high as the national share is, some provinces are even more dependent. BC leads with 1 in 5 GDP dollars (19.6%) coming from RERL. Nova Scotia (17.2%), and Manitoba (14.2%) were the second and third highest share, respectively.
Ontario (13.6%) is just above the national average, but is home to 38.3% of total RERL activity. Elevated activity in the province has definitely padded national GDP growth. Its slowdown is also likely to act as a drag with credit growth so high, and builder activity projected to slow.
Canada home prices to drop 12% in 2023, still remain unaffordable for many: Reuters poll
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-home-prices-drop-12-125040661.html
So the announcement of the end of the house prices decline proved premature, Again.
Let’s not be so eager to declare the end of inflation prematurely too, shell we?
Of course national real estate values can decline on average. But not in Toronto or Vancouver. And, as stated, the pace of inflationary increases is fading, not reversing. Exaggeration renders your statements weak. – Garth
#114 Senator Bluto on 03.01.23 at 9:12 am
Do we have Rental and food justice warriors? It seems a proper demand would be a check from the central bankers equivalent to the house owners capital gains due to their largesse with easy money. Like 300-500 k per household, based on the location, 1 mil for GTA/Vancouver?
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2176895043886
US will provide transport to Roxham Road border.
#113 IHCTD9 on 03.01.23 at 9:07 am
#93 Sail Away on 02.28.23 at 10:27 pm
IH and the weasel
Cool to see weasels and sorry to hear it croaked. However, you can still skin it and brain tan the skin for posterity. Watch the musk glands, haha- you’ll know if you nick one, trust me. Probably a least weasel at that size. The larger ones can get 10-12” long without tail- fairly close to the size of a small mink.
Story time: as kids with .22s, we would often snowshoe through the cedar swamps for snowshoe hares. Find the bright shiny black marble and it magically turns into a hare’s eye. This was also the weasels’ hunting ground. When a weasel appears and starts flipping around, the hares freeze and can barely move. It’s fascinating to see- sort of like vampires holding their victim in thrall. Then the weasel runs up to bite the spinal cord at the back of the skull. Probably 1/10 the size of a hare or less. I watched it play out a number of times and it was always pretty similar. Weird and cool. Deadly dudes. Your cat must be ghetto because weasels fear nothing.
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I quizzed the guys at work, and the only fellas who have seen them are also hunters. I think I did get a good whiff of that musk too. I watched a few vids of Ermines taking out rabbits – amazing given the size difference. Apparently there are a lot of them around here, so that’s good.
Charlie might have got lucky with this one, but he is also a killing machine in his own right. Never had a Cat so driven by instinct.
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Might be worth putting the cat on precautionary antibiotics if you have any around. Or at least check him carefully for the next week or so. He probably didn’t escape unscathed and tooth punctures often infect. Might just be a normal day for your cat from the sounds of it, though.
Can’t believe anybody would think the comments section gets off-topic!
Nonpulsed:
“They are going to keep voting for the Trudeau/Singh coalition, despite the trajectory towards socialism and tyranny.”
Your observation is interesting, and deserves deeper analysis.
Assuming that is the case, and I tend to agree, then the question becomes why are voters repulsed by the alternative, and gravitate toward what is perceived as the lesser evil?
The right, especially on this blog, seems to have difficulty garnering support, and often resorts to Fox News style buffoonery to bolster its position.
And that does not attract thinking people.
#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.01.23 at 8:28 am
@#104 Faron
“Meanwhile, Elon hold’s stoned, 2AM Twitter spaces to troll his followers with fart sounds.”
+++
He seems to have you hooked.
You talk about him 24/7
—
Do I?
And you feel a need to respond to everything I write about him why, exactly?
I’ll miss the “old” Dilbert comics.
But Musk is a good substitute.
#25 ‘Sam’ – the kind of life that occurs when one spends more money than one earns. People want/like having ‘nice’ stuff. I get it, I like/want ‘nice’ stuff too. But even at my most acquisitive, the affordability factor always was a consideration. I always kept in mind that the bills had first priority – yes, I know, how dull/boring of me – & took care only to spend $ that were not needed to pay said bills. Despite that I still ended up owning a lot more ‘stuff’ than I actually needed.
Elon’s Starlink is Ukraine’s standard communication system. The country has the most terminals in the world.
This selfless donation has saved countless thousands of lives.
A Nobel Peace Prize?
#126 Linda on 03.01.23 at 11:25 am
#25 ‘Sam’ – the kind of life that occurs when one spends more money than one earns. People want/like having ‘nice’ stuff. I get it, I like/want ‘nice’ stuff too. But even at my most acquisitive, the affordability factor always was a consideration. I always kept in mind that the bills had first priority – yes, I know, how dull/boring of me – & took care only to spend $ that were not needed to pay said bills. Despite that I still ended up owning a lot more ‘stuff’ than I actually needed.
—————
In the dreary winter season, many people have nothing better to do than going to “shopping” malls.
Once you enter, you’re hooked.
Impulse buying, the shop owners dream.
I stayed away from malls this winter.
Went for walks instead.
Even in the snow and rain.
And knitted a sweater. (Just kidding).
Of course national real estate values can decline on average. But not in Toronto or Vancouver. And, as stated, the pace of inflationary increases is fading, not reversing. Exaggeration renders your statements weak. – Garth
——————————
Toronto and Vancouver are half of the markets,
considering that there is no bubble in Quebec.
That and considering the level of prices in GTA/Vancouver translates to 30 % +on average decline on all other non-GTA-Vancouver markets provided GTA and Vancouver stay flat while this blog indicated that prices there are actually going up…
It makes sense for a correction to effect the most overblow markets and these are clearly major parts of GTA and Vancouver.
A House in Vaughan and North York even if it fails 40 % from here will still be expensive by historical standards.
So we should have a further serious correction or otherwise …
inflation will wipe us out completely.
Prices in Vancouver and GTA are at least 50-60 % overvalued, maybe more.
Popular Mechanics
Ford has voluntarily stopped assembly of its EV pickup, the F-150 Lightning, following a random vehicle fire at its production facility in Michigan.
Do these shutdowns spell trouble for both manufacturers? Experts say it depends.
After years of delayed deliveries, material shortages, and scrawny dealership lots, the news that General Motors and Ford are both temporarily shutting down entire production plants is, well, worrisome, and not only because the pickup truck and SUV segments make up around 75% of annual sales in the US.
the press and what some promote how it turns ugly
optimism-the countervailing wave of hatred –
money printing-
speculators then ponzi –
panama canal scandal -anger and loss deflected the blame…
…”The effort failed only after bribes to government officials kept the operation going long after it should have been terminated. Thousands of French families lost their savings.]In 1891, in the French Parliament, the fire eating, ultra-right-wing nationalist, Paul Déroulède, who had been baying for years for a war “of revenge” against Germany, accused the Jews of wanting to “de-christianise France”,… In 1892, prejudices were stirred up still more strongly by a newspaper La Libre Parole, which Drumont founded, and which became the most prominent of several openly racist sheets.
A royalist deputy, Jules Deldhaye, further charged that “more than 150” parliamentarians had taken bribes to vote for the lottery loan in 1888.
The Dreyfus affair (French: affaire Dreyfus, pronounced [afɛːʁ dʁɛfys]) was a political scandal that divided the Third French Republic from 1894 until its resolution in 1906. L’Affaire Dreyfus has come to symbolise modern injustice in the Francophone world,[1] and it remains one of the most notable examples of a complex miscarriage of justice and antisemitism. The role played by the press and public opinion proved influential in the conflict.
https://paris10.sitehost.iu.edu/ParisOSS/D13CultureWars_and_Colonialism/d8RudorffDreyfus2Antisemitism.html
#130 BillinBC on 02.28.23 at 3:09 pm
So, Faron…can you cite any “reliable” source to support your opinion?
—
Safer than a car that protects you from crashes is not having technology that gets in wrecks in the first place.
____________________________________________
Good point!
#119 Summertime on 03.01.23 at 10:05 am
Canada home prices to drop 12% in 2023, still remain unaffordable for many: Reuters poll
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-home-prices-drop-12-125040661.html
So the announcement of the end of the house prices decline proved premature, Again.
Let’s not be so eager to declare the end of inflation prematurely too, shell we?
Of course national real estate values can decline on average. But not in Toronto or Vancouver. And, as stated, the pace of inflationary increases is fading, not reversing. Exaggeration renders your statements weak. – Garth
_________________________
I’m not convinced prices won’t drop further in TO and Van.
I can’t speak for TO, but living in the LM for the last dozen or so years, further context here are the economic conditions do not lend to price increases if interest rates settle in the 5% range. One economic element that NOBODY pays attention to is that there are no (and I mean ZERO!) industries anywhere in BC that pay enough to afford locally. No O&G (not welcome here in BC), Lumber, Fishing, Mining, it’s all been compromised or shut down to appease the activist cabal. The preferred employers here in BC are the 3 levels of government and the utilities, and they don’t pay a living wage in relation to cost of living. If you’re not in business for yourself, you have zero chance of affording RE without placing yourself into huge debt, which many currently find themselves in. With interest rates rising, there is no way the first time buyer regular joe can qualify for avg priced RE. Will prices be maintained by those who seek to upgrade?
How does the math work here? If the regular joe can’t afford it, what will be feeding the increase in prices?
“No decline” does not mean “increase.” – Garth
Value Village shoppers enraged over ‘insane’ price tag on Converse shoes: ‘Horrible’
One Canadian called out the thrift store chain after they found a pair of used Chucks listed for $60.
——————-
Not sure if this story is real.
But shows you inflation is partly manufactured.
But calling out the store?
Just don’t by the shoes.
#127 Sail Away on 03.01.23 at 11:44 am
donation
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Donated some of the terminals. Charges thousands of Ukrainians for the service. Please don’t lie.
#130 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.01.23 at 11:56 am
Popular Mechanics
Ford has voluntarily stopped assembly
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Responsible! Teslas have been catching fire at a rate of up to two per day! Elon hold fart-joke twitter spaces at 2AM.