Some weeks ago a certain pathetic blog enraged its readers by suggesting real estate was scraping bottom.
Impossible, the rabble said. How can the price of houses stabilize or increase when nobody can afford them? And it’s true. With mortgages having travelled from 2% to 5%, sales levels have crashed, prices dipped and moaning increased. The average household cannot buy the average house in the average urban setting. This is why governments have pledged to build oodles more units – which are years away from hitting the market. Also why we’ll get the FHSA – in a couple of months.
Meanwhile, inflation appears to have crested, the jobless numbers have tanked and we’re all expecting CB rates will top out in the next few months. Plus, it’s spring (almost). The sap’s running. So while most people cannot jump in, enough are to make a difference. As this blog forecast, we’re entering a new seller’s market in places like the mighty GTA.
Now, before you rip us a new one, realize this conclusion is based on stats, not emotion or hopium. Real estate is still crazy-stupid expensive and people are correct to vex over jumping in. Despite rising rents, being a tenant is still cheaper than becoming an owner. Closing, carrying and selling costs are ridiculous – and now property taxes are about to explode (look at Vancouver’s 9.7% bomb). The trend is likely to continue – breaking us into two classes of beavers.
But here’s the thing. We said a month ago that come the first week in March industry numbers would be arresting. Four weeks ago the average price nationally had fallen 23%. Detached sale prices in Toronto were off 22%. Sales levels in Vancouver and Toronto had crated by up to 55%. In Montreal, even worse. Ditto for Halifax.
Apparently enough people decided that was cheap enough to act. So during February we’ve seen desirable properties sell in days (or hours), multiple offers emerge and open houses clogged the way they were about this time a year ago. The stock market may be wonky and central bankers in low repute, but the property market has been quietly frenetic. These bidders may be gamblers headed for a cliff, or they may be visionaries knowing conditions will turn quickly in 2023.
And in a few days we’ll know more. But here’s a preview.
In December there were 533 house sales in the GTA, with active listings numbering 1,880. Days-on-market hit 30, and the median sale price was $815,000. A month later, three hundred more listings were available, sales edged up to 567, DOM decreased a couple of days and prices nudged higher to $838,800. This blog suggested that – based on observable behaviour – we’d hit the wall.
February?
Only two days left, and so far almost 700 units have sold, listings continue to expand and prices have jumped to $907,875. Yes, that’s an increase of 11.4% in a couple of months. In Vancouver, by the way, DOM has dropped from 43 in December to 31 this month, with the median selling price rising from just over $900,000 to $1,029,000.
Here’s how the Toronto market activity has been charted by HouseSigma.
Now, understand this is not a normal market. Nothing is normal right now. Inflation still rages, mortgage interest charges are 21% higher, everybody hates Galen Weston, Ukraine’s war is increasingly dangerous, Mr. Market is factoring in one or two more rate hikes, eight in ten people expect a recession and it just snowed in Hollywood. Besides, we’re not even over Covid and workers are fighting return-to-work orders. It’s hard not to miss 2018.
In the midst of this abnormality, however, house horniness is making a comeback. Those with the means to buy – typically move-uppers – are willing to pay more than asking prices once again. In the last few months their ranks have exploded. Far fewer than three years ago, of course, but swollen from the beginning of the year – rising from 12% in Toronto to 44%. Here is evidence from data freak Scott Ingram.
What next?
By the end of this week real estate boards will have coughed up the Feb stats. By the end of March the traditional spring market will be revved up. Meanwhile (March 8th) we’ll hear that the Bank of Canada’s rate pause continues, and within the next five weeks final details of the First Home Saving Plan will be widely known. Also coming is a federal budget, which will sop once more to real estate.
The advice here has not changed. Buy if you really need a house and can afford one without nuking your family finances. Otherwise, there’s zero shame in leasing, and much common sense in doing so. Especially with what’s started to happen.
About the picture: “Just wanted to say thank you for the sage advice given over the last 7 years that I have been reading your blog,” writes Craig. “You have unknowingly been helping steer what was once two newlyweds through many of the challenges of starting a life together. However, I am happy to report that these two over educated millennials (MD and another suspender strapped MBA) are student loan free, and have a very healthy nest egg well under way. Thought I would offer a good Airedale photo for the blog, as you seem to be running short these days given the number of cats that seem to be appearing. This photo sums up our dog Scout perfectly, as that nose has been into everything since she was a puppy. Her world is about to be rocked, as my wife and I are expecting a baby any day.”
137 comments ↓
Beautiful day here in Victoria BC
Missed snowmaggedon
Just saw a few Farons……err Snowflakes
Who can afford the down payment on whatever now counts as the ‘entry level’ so the move-uppers can sell and move up?
Just curious about the FHSA.
If I acquire some raw land to build…would I still be eligible for the FHSA?
This is all happening because of the great pause by the BoC, everyone believes or wants to believe that rates are going back down and are hedging their bet by buying real estate.
I wonder what will happen if rates keep climbing up like the Federal Reserve is planning to possibly do, they will pillorize the BoC again if they keep raising rates and are getting financially fornicated.
I know lots of people at todays rates who are paying over 6k in interest a month to be in the game so lets see how it plays out.
Also when I inquired as to what people are now paying in property taxes in my area they are paying more than I pay in rent, I was taken aback by that, but as always they are not throwing their money away on rent and building equity.
Congratulations Canada! You’ve become a one trick poney like the UK. Enjoy the consequences
Flop Drops.
Fort Vancouver still has its moat in place.
Just like any parent would want, the Inner Ring is still intact.
So is there any hope for the kiddos?
Detached house in Chilliwack for less than 500k
Mortgage would be less than some people are paying to rent one bedroom apartments.
Original ask 569k
Assessment 577
Just sold for 460k
Yeah, there’s pockets of hope, here and there, overall the market is still elevated but you only need one home right?
Or are you gonna speculate…
M48BC
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2742435/9157-HIEBERT-STREET-Chilliwack-BC/
oday’s blog appears to be defying Newton’s Law. For every action(GREED) there is an equal and opposite reaction(FEAR which has barely emerged). Up until now the impact of interest rates on real estate and the Canadian economy in general has been very limited. However as The Bank of Canada continues it’s quantitative tightening programme, the real impact of higher interest rates will emerge. QT will squeeze the inflation out of the economy and bring asset prices down to earth. Tiff paused rate hikes just to watch the impact of QT unfold. You can still expect to see a flood of real estate listings once the typical Canadian gets it in their head that the game has switched from FEAR to GREED. All those brilliant investment property owners will stampede for the exits. Keep your powder dry. Cash will be king.
#87 Re-Cowtown on 02.26.23 at 9:59 am
This article was written by a person with no understanding of radiative transfer. His math and concepts are simple, and wildly incorrect. Sorry.
It’s not a cabal when the group you disagree with on an issue has a far better understanding of the concepts in question. No different than you heading out to the sidelines at an NFL game and telling the head coach what they are doing wrong. You’ll just be pushed aside and told to get out of the way.
#204 Faron on 02.23.23 at 12:05 am
#189 Shawn on 02.22.23 at 10:09 pm
The interest on that “near cash” has now suddenly jumped to about 4.6%. So that’s about 4 billion pretax in extra profit per year.
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Need one remind you that rolling those t-bills over the past few years resulted in a large capital loss? Can someone please explain the concept of bond duration to this guy? Do people who invest and comment here understand this concept? Please say yes.
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Gentle reminder that the person who doesn’t understand t-bills, duration, rollovers or capital gains and losses while claiming others who actually do understand these very basic things don’t, is also writing gibberish like this:
#58 Faron on 02.25.23 at 8:51 pm
—
IMU, Yes*
*Given a sufficiently liquid underlying and that a time average is looked at (which may take care of the liquidity question).
The challenge is that it’s up to you to figure out what the time period to average over is. Furthermore, the steepness of the risk/return trade-off curve is a fxn of the risk free rates which are a function of CBs and the bond market. Dimensionality and interconnectedness is high even in this simple accounting!
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Not that anyone could or would possibly use this ‘insight’ for anything but just in hopes these cringeworthy posts stop.
But we all know they will only grow in frequency.
Or should I say, ‘grow in hyperbolic variant coefficients aligned with fourth dimensionality of the weed whacker principle.’
Oh vey.
#8 Faron on 02.26.23 at 12:48 pm
No different than you heading out to the sidelines at an NFL game and telling the head coach what they are doing wrong. You’ll just be pushed aside and told to get out of the way.
+++++++++++++
Sounds like you telling Garth how to run his blog.
We’ve now entered 15th year of home price mania. Sure there were a few declines (2018/2020/2022) but if you purchased and held the property you’re doing fine. For those who have not with each passing day it gets even harder. Personally, I am glad I purchased in 2015 instead of deciding to rent. That said, feels like daily news surprises of impending house crack stock crash world war 3 new viruses and recession. Frankly, I am tired of it all. Live your life. Buy a house if you can. Rent if you can/want. Move away if it’s too cold or expensive. But just live – Life is short. No need to concern yourself worh daily media and blog and news posts of this that and the other.
Re: #88 Chalkie on 02.26.23 at 10:12 am++
Chalkie, old chap. While your observations have real merit, expect no changes to the format. The recent weekend cultural references appear to indicate someone is doing research.
Even Elrond sailed west eventually to Valinor, and it’s almost March. Spring, new beginnings, and sometimes endings. Intuition, clairyoyance, and it doesn’t hurt to have the two mile eyesight of an eagle…..
Current RE market is textbook supply and demand. There’s normally over 300,000 listings on realtor.ca; today there are 212,000. So, firm prices.
What happens next? I don’t know, but people don’t seem too motivated to sell these days. A soft landing supports a strong RE narrative.
We’ll see.
Way too early to call anything. People buying right now are probably going to regret it. Clearly we are in the return to normal phase. We are on our way to 2005 rates. I’m thinking we will have a flood of listings this spring and into summer, amateur landlords bleeding money with have no choice but to sell. Only thing keeping prices elevated is the lack of inventory currently. Clearly some owners are clinging on to the hope rates get slashed again like they did multiple times since 2008. All bubbles end in tears.
Sales are lagging in every Canadian housing market as the investors jumped to USA FOR DEALS DEALS DEALS
Been thinking about this at a strategic level lately and have pondered the following:
– Every house in Canada needs to change hands at least every 60 years if not sooner. People die, and the house is is either sold and split or transferred to a kid. So the “average house” at some point absolutely must become affordable to the “average buyer”. The only way for this to not be true is for either corps or wealthy individuals buying multiple properties to keep them out of the hands of the “average person”, or a non “average” immigrant. Essentially, excluding immigration our population is stagnant and the trading of real estate is just musical chairs and the families with real estate will continue to have it, those without won’t. Factor in immigration , and no matter the price, high low or otherwise, if we don’t want people sleeping in tents we need to build as many person-units of living space as there are people coming in the country. What this all means to me is that if we don’t build enough houses to keep up, we get social disorder and possibly very bad disorder surprisingly quickly and “unexpectedly” no matter what the price of houses is or isn’t. Now, assuming we build enough units of shelter to house the growth in population, the pricing cannot, possibly, exceed the ability of the population to pay. Basic market mechanics. Which leads me to believe that the propertied-class, which is 70% of Canadians and thus contains the “average” Canadian somewhere in there, can afford a house. Between family money, dual incomes, existing equity, the average Canadian already owns a house and by default can buy one. The trouble is that young people not yet on the property ladder are in the other 30% and looking to start families. Many of these can obviously access family wealth through the Bank of Mom and Dad, or get part of grandma’s estate that provides the lift they need, etc, so for the fortunate 70% that can tap into these sources, it’s a simple game of musical chairs. For those that are not in, that’s where the trouble is. Because at these prices and rents, the existing clad of beavers with property is able to use the lack of housing supply to extract every possible dollar out of the other 30%, right up to their maximum ability to pay either rent or mortgages purchase. Like food, housing is a basic necessity and a hungry person will spend their last dollar on bread if thats the only load in town.
I’m this context, we have essentially cleaved the country into two classes, families with property and families without. Depending on whether the pace of new unit construction keeps up with population growth determines whether this split leads to option 1, which is everyone has shelter but those without property pay nearly every dime they have to put a roof over their heads, or option 2, we fail to keep up with population growth and suddenly there’s a “tent convoy” in Ottawa of hundreds of thousands demanding shelter and food.
Neither of these options is good, but one is actually dangerous, like French Revolution dangerous, and in my opinion there is only one one path out of that: we need to overbuild, like New-Deal style, man on the moon style, chicken in every pot and roof over every head style, so that supply outstrips demand. To make this happen, we will have to tightly regulate developers and builders to ensure that there is no monopoly on the land supply.
This is all a simplification of course with lots of nuance and details both in terms of problem and solution, but the root cause absolute must boil down to housing supply, and at the root of this is land supply. The only way out is more building.
If you look at it from 30,000ft, i think it becomes obvious.
Two classes of citizens?
Indeed. And young working people are starting to revolt.
Also the tax advantageous available to investors adn business owners (Financial advisors not included apparently) are nothing short of disgusting.
And corporate tax rates in Canada are HALF what they were in 1989 – because otherwise our grocery stores would move to the U.S., right?
Yes, grocery stores paid 50% income tax in 1989! Manufactures got lower taxes becasue they actually COULD move.
Then we reduced all corporate taxes to about 25% including all those businesses that had no choice but to be in Canada. LUNACY!
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/corporate-tax-rate
How climate change and densification is going to affect our real estate in the coming decades.
Educate yourself, don’t just fluff through the deets on what your biggest investment in life may be. Look, you are here, so you are smart and interested.
Turner Nation recently mentioned “the 15 minute city”. What this is, is a new name for what our grandparents would term “Neighbourhood”. You know, parks, corner stores, walk-to schooling, local library, knowing your neighbours, that kind of thing.
All Sesame Street kids know it as “Who are the people in your neighborhood?” Youtube it if you missed it first time around.
Educate yourself: Carlos Moreno penned the term “15 minute city”. Spend 8 minutes of your time and figure out for yourself where things have to go real estate wise:
https://www.ted.com/talks/carlos_moreno_the_15_minute_city?language=en
ALWAYS – figure out where the money is, and how it’s flowing because that’s what matters. Influencers and climate change/covid/“we are being microchipped” nutbars either have no clue or are smart and are trying to flow money their way.
Your balanced and realistic viewpoint today is appreciated, Garth.
I urge everyone thinking of getting into the market to move forward and be prepared to go through the process efficiently and quickly if you want a good home.
Not only does it look like the correction is wrapping up, but other factors including global changes, wars and immigration are growing on the horizon. The problems in Canada with a shortage of labour and citizens to pay taxes plus strife elsewhere has only one likely outcome, which is a significant population change ahead. We are likely to hit 50,000,000 Canadians within barely a decade, and that will only increase. The impact on property values, well, we can just imagine.
#9 AnonyMusk on 02.26.23 at 12:52 pm
So, you are telling us that Shawn’s implication that holding, say, a 12 month t-bill with a fixed redemption price will suddenly (Shawn’s word) be redeemable for more when rates rise? LOL.
And if you don’t like my paraphrasing of how or whether efficient markets establish a trade-off between ROR and risk, by all means, enlighten us. Will go out on a limb and say that what you dredge up will be as simplistic as claiming the Fed drove all inflation.
Dead cat bounce Garth. Nothing more. Wait & See: We will resume the downward trajectory in RE in a couple of months.
The US inflation is still raging so the Fed will keep on turning the screw and Tiff will have eventually follow kicking and screaming.
Thanks Garth. A Vancouver desirable house in a desirable area is still a hot potato. Our friends sold very quickly recently with an accepted offer in 3 days.
There’s nothing wrong with renting, but we greatly enjoy our home. A big part of the enjoyment is knowing we paid a reasonable price for it 17 years ago before markets went nutso.
Also nutso is the acceptance of huge prices in the cities. We’d much rather live in Nanaimo than any city… and for 1/4 the price of a similar setup. Heck, our Chilcotin tipi camp 10 acres is even better- for $22k!
@#16 T-Rev
Your comment does much to explain the single family house market in east Vancouver, which I have been following for decades. It’s a part of Vancouver where relatively few houses come on the market, and a disproportionate number are slated for demolition – holding properties on a major street that will become higher density housing, or structures that are too dated or poorly maintained to be economically renovated.
It’s clear that people who had 2 to 6 children back in the day, it’s most likely that the inheriting generation has 1 or more members that have enough equity to buy out the siblings for the nicer properties in east Vancouver in the sub $2.5 million price range.
If you look in that price range, it’s pretty rare to have a move in ready property, at least two blocks from a major street. Your point about families with property supports what we see in the market.
With the Stocks fighting bonds tug of war going on, maybe it is time we accept, set-back and reset our expectations for a fast recovery in 2023 markets. Inflation seems to keep rising to the surface and reminding us, it is not finished with us yet, prepare for the hit on your wallets.
We are superseded by history; the strong job market alone is creating an extremely difficult economy to read and for some reason less than common sense.
There is a bit of a home buying frenzy in the air. You would not pay the extra $50 a month to the banks last month for the extra mortgage cost, but today you are willing to pay an extra $50,000 for that same home that sat last month, I think for those going down that road, a few Tylenols will not fix their thinking.
We have enough pressure in the markets for the yield bond curve to move higher still, we are into unchartered waters and fundamentals will prevail.
With all the new found inflation data in the United States, the Feds need to do more like implementing another 50-basis point to tame this muscle-bound inflation bully.
What Canada needs is more competition to reduce inflation, it would put thousands of dollars back into the pockets of every household, a couple examples of when you think you can just go to the competition grocery store for better deals, let us look at Loblaws for instance.
Loblaws owns 27% of this country’s grocery sales with many other side lines of business. Loblaws owns George Weston Foods, Joe Fresh, Atlantic Superstores, Dominion, Maxi, No Frills, Provigo Le Marche, Value-Mart, Real Canadian Superstore, Wholesale, Zehrs, Extra Foods Maxi & Cie, Pharma Prix, Shoppers Drug Mart, Fortinos, Fresh Mart, Save-Easy, your independent Grocer, you even have Loblaw’s owning PC Financial.
You can get as mad as you like, you will continue to put your family dollars into the same pockets over and over on your daily shopping.
Your second choice is, Sobeys, they own 22% of this country’s grocery sales, there products are sold from stores like, IGA, Sobeys, Safeway, Foodland, Fresco, Thrifty Foods, Lawtons Drugs, Commisso’s Food Markets, Price Chopper, Dutch Boy, Sobeys Inc Empire.
With half of this country’s grocery sales being divided up between two sets of owners, the other half being divided up among thousands of little guys, something is wrong here, No balance whatsoever.
Is it any wonder why you cannot find a deal, you can jump from one store to the other trying to save a dollar and still feed the same big machine, feels like some sort of joke, but it is real.
Then you have the likes of the American firms such as Walmart and Costco taking anything you may have left over for gas and by the way, Costco will also take your gas money, there goes your weekly paycheck folks.
What we need is for a couple of new Canadian Owned grocery chains to start up, considerable size competitors to surface, to even the playing field. Competition is healthy for all of us. Competition keeps honesty in the spotlight, wake up Members of Parliament, it is your kids and grandkids also coming behind us.” It is like the lyrics, is it any wonder.” Wake up Trudeau, you are at the controls, get the wheels in motion and stop all these conglomerate buyouts after buyouts, the same thing is happening in other sectors like Rogers who owns Fido with a long list of others, and Shaw who owns Freedom Mobile and many other companies, do not accept that big business money rules the banks and the general public walks the planks. Once they are under one control, hold onto your shorts.
Hockey is a Canuck game, it was developed in Canada and the first game was played indoors on March 3rd, in 1875. Did you know that the Canadian’s also invented sports such as, lacrosse, basketball, five-pin bowling, ringette, and wheelchair rugby, all exemplify those social functions. Among these sports, lacrosse has the richest history because it was developed as an Aboriginal game that was played out as a ritual rather than as a competition, there you have it, if you love lacrosse, thank an aboriginal.
The word CANADA spelled backward ( ADANAC) is from the First Nations primary language group origin, from The Six Nations (Haudenosaunee) word Kanata, meaning village.
Quote of the day: We must keep inventing, the value of any idea is treasured, let us skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it was,
Ha Ha… Suck to live in Canada. Enjoy the diversity. The immmmigration train is on its way. Chooo Chooo…
Rates are going up. Way up! Tiff just pretty much admitted it in this CBC story. https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6750879
There will be a pause in March so Tiff doesn’t kill the rest of his credibility. But after March rates are going up and up. No way inflation is down to 3% in June. I pity the people falling into this housing bull trap.
#19 Another Deckchair on 02.26.23 at 1:37 pm
Turner Nation recently mentioned “the 15 minute city”. What this is, is a new name for what our grandparents would term “Neighbourhood”. You know, parks, corner stores, walk-to schooling, local library, knowing your neighbours, that kind of thing.
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IMHO..these won’t happen…for various reasons.
It would take massive revisions of existing bylaws etc.. but more importantly the masses will have woken up to this as another hopium trap.
Here in Metro Vancouver…they are destroying small business …and the high density condos etc. have retail on ground floor which sits vacant.
The only way it “may” work is if they have a Big Box retailer in each 15 minute city ie Costco…Walmart…Sobey’s……which then supports my earlier claims that we are being lead into COMMUNISM.
#20 Honest Realtor on 02.26.23 at 1:38 pm
You must be this the Canadian version of this guy:
https://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877336,00.html
But Lereah, who held the position through early 2007, did more than issue rosy forecasts. He regularly trumpeted the infallibility of housing as an investment in interviews, on TV and in his 2005 book, AreYou Missing the Real Estate Boom?.
Just a bit of history, btw, the dead cat bounce was expected.
In language that the curmondeons on this blog would understand….
higher prices in thin trading.
Tick Tock Tick Tock
93 Shawn
“No more responses to you Dr. V.”
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While sorry to hear that Shawn, I will not lose sleep over it.
A few years ago, when meeting with my accountant, he asked what we had saved in our RRSPs. When I told him he said “Don’t put anything more in there without checking with me”. A year or two later, when I first met
with my new advisor she said two things:
1) “Oh this is nice” referring to my different savings vehicles and
2) “Don’t put anything more into your RRSPs without checking with your accountant”
So I figured we were on the right track. When I met with my accountant last, he again asked what was in the RRSPs. His response was “OK we can handle that” so just about right.
I did like your comment about considering the tax owed when calculating net worth. That makes me richer than I think, and as rich as folks who have more just in
RRSPs, plus I have access to large no-tax and low-tax
funds.
I don’t recall ever saying your math was wrong. It was the math for the situations you were describing, and may be the math you now have to deal with.
Your math is not wrong.
But in some cases, it is the wrong math.
My Work here is done
Enough. I am done commenting until at least May.
Some great regulars here but then we have the village whacko (we all know who I mean).
Many of the topics discussed here are complex. Having a one-sided view and foaming at the mouth about central banks and Trudeau and other things is just not healthy. Simple people come up with simple answers and simple theories.
Best wishes to all. As Joe at 11 said. Live life.
Snowing in Sooke. Again.
Shawn and Dr. V: thank you for the respectful disagreement discussion
More of this!
Hey, when I’m snuggle mode last thing I wanna do is clean gutters, yard work (except lawn mowing) or put up Christmas lights…
Buuuut, to each their own.
Og
While I have no doubt that it is cheaper to rent, the problem lies with suitable places to rent. At least in Victoria. It is nearly impossible to rent a 3 bedroom house in town because there are not any to rent.
So if you live and work here, you pretty much have to buy.
It is getting easier to rent a condo with a family, but prior to the new legislation just a few months ago prohibiting stratas from putting age restriction on, people couldn’t rent a condo with kids.
And now the strata councils have found a way to circumvent the new legislation.
What a nightmare. I noticed the same, things really changed a couple of weeks ago. most of properties sell within 2 days of listings. Big issue is non existent inventory, even though the sales will be at all time lows even for February.
Now, I don’t envy Tiff. I personally think this is the worst case scenario for him. if the prices of real estate go up, it will push prices of everything up, since 25% or GDP is real estate. Meaning that he will be put in a position to raise rates again. Which eventually will lead to some painful times. Maybe some lessons are best learned hard way, and soft landing was a dream. or maybe 5mil town-homes and 10mil detached will be a norm 5 years from now,and everyone will wonder how we can do it.
The CB does not fret about house prices but rather carrying costs. You overstate the impact of current activity. – Garth
#16 T-Rev on 02.26.23 at 1:14 pm
Reasonable analysis, wrong conclusion.
What we need to do is tax capital gains on principle residences. That includes everybody, Granny’s estate too.
#25 chalkie on 02.26.23 at 2:16 pm
As always, thought provoking and insightful comment from you. Thanks.
You point out the duopolistic nature of some Canadian businesses (or perhaps cartels are what they should be called). Groceries, telcos, insurance, entertainment, banks included. And they have the data to support their pricing behaviour.
They’ll happily take your money for luxury-priced brands that are the same as their mid-range or “basic” brands.
The Undercover Economist is a very readable book on this topic.
Never assume you’re getting the best deal without checking around.
And the reason they give you deals and discounts using membership cards is that you are giving them the important information to figure out what/how to charge you. (When they’re not whoring you out to Facebook).
There is another factor, Amazon and online groceries do represent competition. Once they’ve got contractors driving vans around even small villages in Canada, most grocery products are remarkably well packaged and can certainly stand being thrown onto your porch on a Sunday morning…
‘Scout’ is rocking a serious dog jacket – there are plenty of folks who’d be happy to wear something similar:)
Watched the CBC Marketplace video about rentals. Eek. While at least one of the renters got some LL repair action post video, rentals in said report were pretty dodgy. The nicer, rent controlled places were YWCA with a waiting list as long as one’s arm or co-op units ditto. Have to say, if any of the various governments were serious about offering affordable housing the co-op model looks like a good fit. Multi-family units, with the folks inhabiting same actings as tenant-owners. They pay rent/monthly fees based on income, with all unit operating costs/repairs the responsibility of the occupants. It is very like a condo, except much more hands on since the owner/occupants are the ones likely to be cutting the grass, shoveling snow, painting hallways etc. The main drawback for many is the fact you can be voted off the island by your neighbors.
The CB does not fret about house prices but rather carrying costs. You overstate the impact of current activity. – Garth
My thinking was more that higher activity, and overall increase in prices will create inflationary pressure on other sectors. A ripple effect. Anecdotally I am hearing that sales of hardwood flooring, building materials have picked up and prices are also going up as result of this activity. It is small impact, and short period, but if it continues I would think it would not tame inflation, and it would be far cry from targeted 2%.
Have to disagree, Garth. Just ask a realtor how sales are going? This has to be one of the unhealthiest real estate markets in memory, as many economists are pointing out.
The standoff still rages on. Potential sellers expect rates to go down by the end of 2023, so they are not listing. Meanwhile, the Fed has already announced they’re probably raising rates 3 more times this year. Tiff will have no choice at some point.
But hey, “truthiness” will prevail, because we live in a world where if the lie is palatable enough, we’ll take it!
This dead cat bounce is simply a result of low supply and a small group of frustrated buyers who have decided they don’t wish to wait any longer. Rising interest rates – and they will continue to rise in the U.S. – will force Tiff’s hand (not to mention continued inflation woes here at home). This isn’t over by a long shot…sure, buy today if you must, but understand the risk, and prepare to slog your way through more of the same sludge that is Canada’s broken real estate world: fabricated bidding wars, over-priced property, gluttonous buyers (if 1 property is good, 6 must be better!)… and on a positive note, just for you, …lovely Airedale!
What’s the typical increase in sales from January > February? MoM stats don’t mean much. I assume every year February sales are always stronger than January. an 11% jump doesn’t seem significant at all.
That is the increase in price, not sales volume. – Garth
#33 Sail Away on 02.26.23 at 2:50 pm
Shawn and Dr. V: thank you for the respectful disagreement discussion
More of this!
-\|/-\|/-\|/-\|/-\|/-\|/-\|/-\|/-\|/-\|/-\|/-\|/-
–Mahatma Gandhi
-/|\-/|\-/|\-/|\-/|\-/|\-/|\-/|\-/|\-/|\-/|\-/|\-
Garth (who relatively recently started hating me – this period is nothing compared to the dude who hates Garth for a long time-I forgot his name), as always, wrote a very optimistic post on Sunday.
That’s why I love him – he made me feel better on Sunday!
Thank you dearie!
And then in the morning I read this (link) and went to the park for a walk completely killed.
https://www.point2homes.com/news/canada-real-estate/cheapest-first-year-homeownership-canada.html
Any of you blog dogs know of a good Real Estate agent?I’m selling on Salt Spring Island and buying in Parksville/Qualicum or North Saanich.
Thanks for the awesome blog Garth and Co.
“Inflation appears to have crested”.
Don’t think so. Spiraling public sector wage demands have only just begun.
#39 Linda on 02.26.23 at 3:38 pm
Watched the CBC Marketplace video about rentals. Eek. While at least one of the renters got some LL repair action post video, rentals in said report were pretty dodgy
Decades ago my brother and I were collecting Calgary rental housing as a side gig for both of us…tuff (and slow) in the beginning, we finally began to make a go of it after about ten years and four times as many “learning” experiences.
At some point we stopped being amateur landlords and became professional property managers. We also made a pact that we would no longer buy or rent any housing that we, ourselves, would not happily live in.
That is when things really clicked over to the doing great side, cash flow was positive, dividends were paid, I no longer had to fly in for a week of handyman stuff, turning our latest acquisition around, getting it ready to rent out.
If I was to be a renter I would only rent property that was purpose built to be a rental, owned by a proper property management company.
DELETED (Anti-immigrant)
Here is the short version:
We’ve been on a ascent now we are starting a descent. Common sense!
Now, for the sake of what we excel at … the non ending debate and talk:
Number and stats are just noise and distraction so we can cut hairs in 4 then 8
‘Canadians are idiots and I’m right to exploit them’ (appeared in National Post Sat Feb 25th).
If someone chose to be one of them then there is nobody else to blame but onself. You’ve chosen to put yourself in the beast’s mouth. do not cry when bitten.
Even in inflation you can still live on your own terms, freely and smartly. Those are a set of intangible skills you form for yourself with good tiny habits.
Housing is what it is … Housing. Like food … You get your share then you move with your life doing meaningful things to better yourself, family, those around you. This is how you create riches/wealth as a by product.
In Canuck land housing madness is because it is an aspiration a goal a dream an investment … to strive for and therefore it leads to housing serfdom. Like in middle ages. Just the names change.
House horniness will never disappear. Idiocy and stupidity is what define human. Few are wise the rest flock with the swarm just using their stem reptilian brain. Even if the “ukrainian war” or the “Turkish/Syrian earthquake” happens in Canuck land housing horniness will only abate for a while.
Meanwhile … after the ascent comes the descent
Do not be an idiot ;)
[email protected]
Gen-Z SPAC/IPO/Crypto/Arkk gamblers are wiped out.
Millennial home buyers are trapped.
Retirement Ponzi schemers are next.
Only media bulls and Wall Street analysts will be spared the consequences of their own actions.
Canada hasn’t the climate for it unless you are in tropical Ft. Mac, but you can’t drive anywhere in the red states of USA for very long, without seeing a mobile home.
31 Shawn you’ll be missed. Thanks for previous posts. Take care.
It’s great to hear Craigs millennial success story and congrats on the baby,
Very refreshing not to hear whining and complaining from this cohort.
#45 Good Real Estate agents South Coast? on 02.26.23 at 4:15 pm
Any of you blog dogs know of a good Real Estate agent?I’m selling on Salt Spring Island and buying in Parksville/Qualicum or North Saanich.
Thanks for the awesome blog Garth and Co.
———-
https://www.rew.ca/agents/78947/dave-hammond
#45 Good Real Estate agents South Coast? on 02.26.23 at 4:15 pm
Here’s who we purchased with:
https://www.rajesh.realtor/
Super good dude.
33 Sailo
“Shawn and Dr. V: thank you for the respectful disagreement discussion
More of this!”
———————————————————
You are welcome Sailo, but I didn’t even consider it a “disagreement”. More like an “alternative viewpoint”.
Here’s how Uncle Warren does it. He doesn’t even pay a dividend. Cap gains please.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-criticized-avoiding-taxes-deserves-break-philanthropy-lifestyle-loopholes-2021-6-1030517316
Yogism #54: “Spring paws!”
Short stay here in Victoria BC
Hotel is packed…
Driving around…few if any “FOR SALE ” signs
Over and out
Yes, that’s an increase of 11.4% in a couple of months. In Vancouver, by the way, DOM has dropped from 43 in December to 31 this month, with the median selling price rising from just over $900,000 to $1,029,000
==============
I find it hard to believe that house prices are going up
again with mortgage rates on the rise, inflation still high. Since the average Canadian can’t afford these prices, then big corporations like Blackrock must be buying these up. Something is definitely wrong.
Blackrock has zero influence in Canada. – Garth
51 Wrk.dover
“Canada hasn’t the climate for it unless you are in tropical Ft. Mac, but you can’t drive anywhere in the red states of USA for very long, without seeing a mobile home.”
———————————————————-
I would very much enjoy a blog post dedicated to mobile homes, particularly those in a MH park setting. I see
some 50 years old in the listings, so climate does not
seem an issue on Southeastern VI.
My in-laws bought a new one to spend the remainder of their lives in. Can’t think of a better arrangement for them.
#39 Linda on 02.26.23 at 3:38 pm
Have to say, if any of the various governments were serious about offering affordable housing the co-op model looks like a good fit. Multi-family units, with the folks inhabiting same actings as tenant-owners.
====================================
Canada had the MURB program back in the late 1970’s early1980s.
My understanding was this was to create residential rentals, based on tax deductions for investors.
My BC City went through massive urban renewal rezonings to accomodate these. Co-ops were also being built.
Unfortunately, the high interest rates(20+%) kicked in and everything tanked.
I do recall reading that some MURBs that were built had a clause the owners could sell off these rental units after about 25 years. (These units are now over 40 years old and near the end of their lifespan)
It was around this time the Feds basically got out of the rental creation game…moreso when MURBS imploded…aka the Feds have no appetite to be involved to the degree they once were..its too volatile a political issue for numerous reasons.
Feds and Provincial Gov’ts will do nothing but blow smoke……keep kicking the can down the road…it ain’t gonna happen to the degree necessary…EVER.
The War on Small Business, kicked off that fateful week March 2020, continues.
Hotels were shuttered then re-open as free homeless encampments.
2023? Alllmost back to normal guys.
Hey TOURISTS, go home and take your valuable Yankee dollars with you. We’re full up. Try another Former First World Country.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/niagara-falls-asylum-seekers-hotels-services-1.6759752
It started last summer with 87, grew to 300, and most recently shot up to about 2,000 hotel rooms that were being utilized in Niagara Falls, Ont., to accommodate asylum seekers sent there from Quebec.
And with nearly 3,000 migrants in total having been transferred since July, the city’s community services are feeling the pressure on their already stretched resources to meet the needs of this sudden influx of people.
———-
Was anyone really surprised seeing T2 wearing a boosterish soccer-styled Ukraine flag/scarf around his neck?
Kanada no longer exists. We have two flags flying on cars, homes, schools. Rainbow and Ukraine.
Ask our Forum Host how he knows….what happens to the real flag.
Say how many people are volunteering to go over there and fight, as was done in the last world war(II) and save Ukraine? Thought so.
@#46 earthbound.
“Spiraling public sector wage demands have only just begun.”
++++
Yep.
wages and prices…chasing each other uppa uppa uppa.
Inflation aint over yet.
So let me get something straight. Increasing rates are bad for realestate but stable high ones are not?
Looks like it might be different this time. Shortest lived realestate correction to date.
Jumping on the bandwagon late in the game doesn’t mean you were right….
#31 Shawn on 02.26.23 at 2:41 pm
Having a one-sided view and foaming at the mouth about central banks and Trudeau and other things is just not healthy.
_______
Take care Shawn.
I just got back from Florida. Toronto airport was terrific. No issues. Orlando security line was not only over 1 hour but total chaos. No clear lines, no staff directions causing stress to all involved.
Shopped for groceries at many different locations up and down the Atlantic coast (not just tourist spots). Prices the same as home but in USD.
I think what has tanked and will remain tanked, is the starter market. (And that, ultimately, drives everything.)
I know landlords here in my southern Ontariowe city that cannot get their units rented.
The number of MLS rental units listed just hit another all-time high yesterday. DOMs keep stretching. (Percentage of those listed with dropped prices is also at an all time high.)
I also know of one two unit house where the upper has been been vacant three months with two price drops and the lower is about to be vacated (and the landlord doesn’t know it yet). Lotta ouch for her, who relies on this income as her means of living.
Finally, I know a couple ~60 years just bought with significant mortgage required, no savings, no pension, low income jobs. Youch. I foresee a lot of pain in the next few years via these buyers who are going FOMO right now.
Scout’s nose knows. (about the baby)
#2 Rook on 02.26.23 at 12:08 pm
Who can afford the down payment on whatever now counts as the ‘entry level’ so the move-uppers can sell and move up?
……..
#4 millmech on 02.26.23 at 12:15 pm
This is all happening because of the great pause by the BoC, everyone believes or wants to believe that rates are going back down and are hedging their bet by buying real estate.
I wonder what will happen if rates keep climbing up like the Federal Reserve is planning to possibly do, they will pillorize the BoC again if they keep raising rates and are getting financially fornicated.
I know lots of people at todays rates who are paying over 6k in interest a month to be in the game so lets see how it plays out.
Also when I inquired as to what people are now paying in property taxes in my area they are paying more than I pay in rent, I was taken aback by that, but as always they are not throwing their money away on rent and building equity.
……………
Good points!
#42 Adam on 02.26.23 at 4:01 pm
What’s the typical increase in sales from January > February? MoM stats don’t mean much. I assume every year February sales are always stronger than January. an 11% jump doesn’t seem significant at all.
That is the increase in price, not sales volume. – Garth
…..
Median or average price?….makes a difference as you know. Realtors always use the one that works best for them.
#45 Good Real Estate agents South Coast? on 02.26.23 at 4:15 pm
Any of you blog dogs know of a good Real Estate agent?I’m selling on Salt Spring Island and buying in Parksville/Qualicum or North Saanich.
…………
No such thing.
Yes by all means ignore:
-Price to rent
-Price to income
-A generational repayment schedule
https://twitter.com/RamyBhatia/status/1629562787625140225
-prices continuing to defy math which some credible agencies do not think possible
https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-price-correction-to-be-one-of-the-largest-in-the-world-fitch/
Beyond my comprehension how anyone thinks this current situation is remotely normal
This is the second time now that the Maestro gives a semi-OK on the R/E & I’ve nailed something down a week before. Last time a penthouse condo in the 400k range but no more big city. This time a getaway in small town southern Interior B.C. Cash coming from the stock & bond portfolio. I’d like to reciprocate. Maybe the Garth will “see the light” & adopt my political heroes. Trump, Orban, Putin, PP, Farage, Modi, Melani, Santos. You know, all the good old populist boys. It’ll be like an old fashioned revival. Talking in tongues, rolling on the floor, that kind of stuff.
Well, I can’t complain about my property taxes.
#25 chalkie
…Loblaws owns 27% of this country’s grocery sales with many other side lines of business. ….
…Your second choice is, Sobeys, they own 22% of this country’s grocery sales ….
…other sectors like Rogers who owns Fido with a long list of others, and Shaw who owns Freedom Mobile …
***********
In the United States, the problem of market capture by individual companies was solved in the 20th century by FORCED DE monopolization. I don’t remember the names of the companies. I think they even have a law on DE monopolization. I am sure that there is no such thing in Canada.
All these companies will die, but they will not allow companies from other countries to enter the market.
Remember how long the Target lasted in Canada – 1 year!!!!
Verizon – not allowed to enter at Canada market at all. The result is that Canada has the most expensive internet and mobile phone prices in the world!
And prices are rising. For another couple of years, both pensioners and the poor will not have the Internet at all, and the phone will be one for several neighbors. Because the choice will be simple – bread and milk or the Internet.
No party, including the Conservatives, is concerned about this. You know answer!
By the way, Costco not bad at all. Surprisingly they have prices less than has No Frills, which is introducing themselves as cheap brand.
Average income vs average home price is just such a terrible stat to try to predict home prices, especially in Toronto or Vancouver. There are enough folks in these cities making significantly above average incomes to push prices higher. Even if prices seem ridiculous by the average income to average home price ratio.
#46 earthboundmisfit on 02.26.23 at 4:26 pm
“Inflation appears to have crested”.
Don’t think so. Spiraling public sector wage demands have only just begun.
============================
Anecdotes:
MIL is a widow….her spouse(my FIL) passed away in 2010. Worked in Gov’t for Transit…worked up to be a top executive. He had a choice of keeping a higher pension for them both till he died then it’s over…
…….OR if he died his widow would receive a smaller pension till she dies(in her mid 80’s now).He chose the latter..so she is now 13 years into receiving his pension.
ALSO: Spouses friend’s Dad (widower)was a School teacher …he died in 1996. His sole child…his daughter….now retired…was able to receive 5 YEARS of his pension after his death. Huh?
I know retired educators collecting pensions that are working as subs….or other double -dipping in the system.
Civil servants pension are generally based on their 5 BEST earning years. Here in BC…many teachers get their Masters Degrees because that adds over $5,000 per year to their salaries…(which of course WE pay and impacts their pensions as indicated earlier).
This is not fair nor is it sustainable.
These people work FOR us,..not snouts in the taxpayer $$$ trough with protests that “they give sh*te about us”. Trudeau and Co need to take a stand….
Dr V on 02.26.23 at 5:31 pm
51 Wrk.dover
“Canada hasn’t the climate for it unless you are in tropical Ft. Mac, but you can’t drive anywhere in the red states of USA for very long, without seeing a mobile home.”
———————————————————-
I would very much enjoy a blog post dedicated to mobile homes, particularly those in a MH park setting. I see
some 50 years old in the listings, so climate does not
seem an issue on Southeastern VI.
My in-laws bought a new one to spend the remainder of their lives in. Can’t think of a better arrangement for them.
================================
Ah yes.
Do you know what a Hurricane to Mobile, Alabama, a tornado in Pine Bluff, Arkansas or a divorce in Cedar, Vancouver Island all have in common??
…
Somebody’s going to lose a trailer.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/86/11/49/86114916084055571a41a3a372c36b41.jpg
Cheers, R
Flop Drops.
I believe the only manufactured home I have slept in had 4 wheels, some people call the recreation vehicles, but when there’s a big bear outside the window, the 4 wheels becomes secondary to the American steel it was manufactured from.
I have touched on Mobile Homes a few times since I started the Flop Drops posts.
I reported a couple of times last year that the cheapest real estate transaction I saw was for a place that needed some lovin’ for 35k, when you need shelter, you need shelter.
It gets glossed over, but manufactured homes are a thing here, over 40 sales in Greater Vancouver in the first two months this year.
I remember putting this one up that someone paid 55k for in late January this year.
Some of it pretty dire, but could be fixed up without much outlay.
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2740226/11-41711-TAYLOR-ROAD-Mission-BC/
Most of the respectable ones seem to be going in between 250- 350k price point, I guess just as with any real estate location still plays it’s part in the pricing even though it a chance to end up down the highway.
Then then is the other end of the spectrum, this new place sold for the best part of 800k.
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2737792/15830-SUFFOLK-ROAD-Surrey-BC/
Even though it’s manufactured, it’s too nice for me, the first time I spill beer or Icecream would get me a banning from that part of the house.
That’s why I really want a dog, so I’ve got someone to blame…
M48BC
There isn’t the income to support these ridiculous real estate prices so therefore prices must crash at some point just like a popped balloon. Like a hundred years pay + down to 3 or less. Like Golem dancing near the edge of a lava pit celebrating getting the ring of power at last both he and the ring will go over the edge to be destroyed forever. The real life monopoly game will end. Maybe for quite awhile.
@#75 Alois
“This is not fair nor is it sustainable.
These people work FOR us,..not snouts in the taxpayer $$$ trough with protests that “they give sh*te about us”. Trudeau and Co need to take a stand….”
+++
Since when has Trudeau and the Liberals cared about what is fair or sustainable.
Any govt that blows $500 Billion dollars in one year and cheers about it has zero concept of finances.
The sooner we have an election the better.
Congratulations, Craig!
#67 Lorne on 02.26.23 at 6:23 pm
#68 Hookshott on 02.26.23 at 6:25 pm
#69 Finaddict on 02.26.23 at 6:30 pm
Short replies, all within seven minutes, separated from their parent comment with “…….”
Why switch usernames?
There is a valid reason they call the low end/no rule ones “Bark Parks”!
No insurance money? Get a dog to protect your guns and that truck on cinder blocks, I think is how it probably starts.
BC Ferries is getting a $500 Million dollar cash infusion.
Why?
BC Ferry projection for rate increases to put the organization back in the black demanded a 10.4% hike in ferry rates EACH YEAR for the next 4 years.
This $500 million dollar cash infusion allows the Ferry corp to ca fare hikes at 3% per year.
$500 million dollars to delay the inevitable.
Or a steaming fiscal dung heap for the next govt to deal with…
Take your pick.
Transit strike starts Monday.
Wages, working conditions, etc. and the contract expired in 2020
Telus workers rallying for strike notice.
Wages and benefits, contract expired in 2021.
Wage and price spiral uppa uppa uppa.
Ready for the food riots? Just another day in a Former First World Country (USA).
Wal-mart is already closing stores due to theft issues. In the Leftist states first which decriminalized theft under ~$700-900.
2020 was the test. ONLINE ordering and curbside pickup is the cure to good theft.
Rampant theft is a likely outcome here in the era of double-digit food inflation each year:
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/snap-food-stamp-benefits-cut-higher-food-prices-worry-recipients-rcna71623
With food stamp cuts just days away, millions of Americans brace for tougher times in the grocery aisle
Extra SNAP payments under a pandemic-era policy are set to expire in 32 states, ending a program that economists have linked to reductions in poverty.
————–
The Fourth Re…Revolution. Yes, an Industrial Revolution.
The A.I. is being sold to us in a fun way. We got to kick its tires.
Meanwhile…middle class jobs are on the way out, accelerating.
RIP Middle Class. 1946-2020. Oof:
https://layoffstracker.com/
Month over Month
Jan 2022 – Present
#75 Alois on 02.26.23 at 7:11 pm
Anecdotes:
MIL is a widow….her spouse(my FIL) passed away in 2010. Worked in Gov’t for Transit…worked up to be a top executive. He had a choice of keeping a higher pension for them both till he died then it’s over…
…….OR if he died his widow would receive a smaller pension till she dies(in her mid 80’s now).He chose the latter..so she is now 13 years into receiving his pension.
ALSO: Spouses friend’s Dad (widower)was a School teacher …he died in 1996. His sole child…his daughter….now retired…was able to receive 5 YEARS of his pension after his death. Huh?
I know retired educators collecting pensions that are working as subs….or other double -dipping in the system.
Civil servants pension are generally based on their 5 BEST earning years. Here in BC…many teachers get their Masters Degrees because that adds over $5,000 per year to their salaries…(which of course WE pay and impacts their pensions as indicated earlier).
This is not fair nor is it sustainable.
———
Let me weigh into this, A. I’m not totally onboard with your thoughts, because…
1. Many public pension plans eliminate most of a person’s RRSP room
2. Many private employers contribute to employees’ RRSPs
3. With a pension, it pays out a certain amount, then some death benefit or can carry over to the spouse/beneficiary for a certain amount of time… but… when it’s gone, it’s gone.
4. If I croak with an RRSP, the entire RRSP becomes my beneficiary’s. This is not the case with a pension.
I personally think an RRSP is a better situation than a pension because then nobody else is setting rules about how much it pays and to whom. If someone with a pension dies early after contributing their entire working life, then yes, there probably should be some benefit to their dependents.
Does that make sense?
Well, let’s check the facts:
1. Job market is hot.
2. Inflation rages.
3. Rates continue to be strongly negative.
4. Debt is ridiculous with total debt over 300 % of GDP – federal, provincial, municipal, public.
Concussion: Central bankers are not doing their job.
And inflation is just about to explode, that is what happens with hot job markets and strongly negative rates.
—
In the US:
1. House market crashes with the worse dive since 2008 and closing on it. No recovery is even contemplated.
2. Inflation continues to rage
3. Job market continues to be hot.
—
Comparing the 2 markets:
We are basically saying that on severely overpriced market that is at least 2 times, maybe 3 times overpriced when compared to US, house prices after 400-500 % increase and meager 20 % drop is suddenly
stable and will keep rising?
I understand that there is very little left from the economy outside of financialization and housing and yet I fail to see how constant lies about inflation and debt will help indebted and cash strapped customer to suddenly boost consumption of inflated goods and services, while paying again astronomical prices for housing.
Understand this: We can’t have it both ways, blowing and sucking.
We have real inflation that is worse that the 70-es and the attempts to declare a win in the fight against it is laughable.
This will be the 1st wave of failed attempt to declare that inflation is over, and IMHO there would be many more to come.
Bottom line: The fight against inflation will fail with the apparent failure to cool the job market and with continuation of strongly negative real rates.
My conclusion therefore is that central bankers do not want to fight inflation, rather they want to fuel it.
Watch for the stock market in that case, folks.
Hot job market is not a sign of recovery during inflation. On the contrary, it is a sign of massive failure.
The Fed said it.
No amount of lying and changes in calculation methodologies will reduce the real inflation.
And I am kind of sick and tired of positive spins that are disconnected from reality.
#86 summertime
I like the cut of your jib – especially “And I am kind of sick and tired of positive spins that are disconnected from reality” – very spot on
#74 Jason on 02.26.23 at 7:08 pm
“There are enough folks in these cities making significantly above average incomes to push prices higher. Even if prices seem ridiculous by the average income to average home price ratio.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Canada_by_median_household_income
Jason the facts/numbers don’t support your statement
#85 Sail Away on 02.26.23 at 9:36 pm
Does that make sense?
=========================
Hi.
Good points…
…..I’m off supporting the local economy…..(I’m hungry)
…..but will reply later.
Cheers:
Alois
#88 Quintilian
The data you referenced is 6 years old. My salary almost doubled since then.
In the immortal words of PT Barnum. “There’s a sucker born every minute”. And as we know, Canada is a population bursting with suckers. Look no farther than Trudeau’s denial of Chinese electoral interference, naming names, and the liberal lumpen who continue to protect Trudeau’s denial in spite of an extensive dossier of proof from CSIS . Sucker.
Saanich Peninsula is stacked up pretty good with over priced houses and condos with less price cuts lately, but most have been relisted lower from back in October/November. A few more sales but rarely over ask and most under or at ask.
Definitely a condo listing shortage so they are still grossly overvalued with few takers unless it’s under $600K. Once they don’t get their prices in next few weeks they will be forced to cut like the pre-Christmas January crowd.
High rates are here to stay. A quarter point cut in fall if it ever happened would do nothing with OFSI tightening lending rules and banks requiring more employment assurance.
1982 all over again with spring blip of sales then slow motion down for next two years. There is no rush to leap back in. Summer/fall of 2024 is more realistic.
This could be just a ‘dead cat bounce,’ No one really knows. All I know is this, 18 years of easy money has created real, actual wealth beyond measure. We’re a nation of smug lottery winners. I read somewhere that 7 in 10 Canadians live in an owned home. Maybe I misread, I don’t know for sure. Someone please fact check me. But, if that’s true, I’ll tell you who doesn’t really give a shit about the other 3… banks. I would venture to guess that banks had this all modeled out back in 2003-04. I can’t imagine that a politician originally came up with the idea to make houses incredibly easy to buy…that seems like a bankers thought to me. So, the pandemic came along and it was really just a cherry on top. The trickle down effect of the wealth created out of thin air will continue and guess what? The banks couldn’t be happier, they’re making fantastic interest on massive selling prices… unless of course all these people recently bidding over list are paying with their lottery winnings… if that’s the case, I don’t freaking know.
@ Dr.V #60 “I would very much enjoy a blog post dedicated to mobile homes, particularly those in a MH park setting. I see some 50 years old in the listings, so climate does not seem an issue on Southeastern VI. +++
” Well maybe a blog post might materialize on this subject ( extremely doubtful), but here are some things to consider:
– MH’s are a common fixture on the BC landscape, especially in the BC interior and parts of Vancouver Island. There are lesser, but similar communities in Alberta and other parts of Canada. Most are located in privately owned landscapes (mobile home parks) where the MH owners plant their unit and lease or rent a space within that landscape, i.e. fees associated with the rental and usually taxes paid by the unit holder. Some are ‘fancy’, with lots of amenities, some less so, some geared to seasonal occupancy, etc., but some occupied year round. A patch of grass, no common walls, seems like an interesting compromise no doubt. The key point to remember is ‘who owns the land’, i.e., not the person in the MH leasing the plot location.
Why does this matter? For starters the financing to live in such a unit. Any financing where the land is not owned is predicated on the MH unit alone. So..kinda like an RV loan with more flexibe terms.
What is more interesting in the current ‘bang for buck’ real estate environment and going forward is that historically many of these ‘MH Parks” are located in prime recreational areas where land values have risen enormously, i.e. perhaps they are located on some prime piece of land that overlooks Kalamalka Lake, ocean views in Parksville, or some other gem.
Real estate developers might find those locations rather attractive and might offer to purchase the entire landscape to capitalize on location/development potential. ‘More condos overlooking nature, more money in their pockets’,..that kind of thing.
Real money translates to square footage and cutting loose from responsibility once the money has been wired offshore to a Swiss bank account, don’t cha know?
So once you and your squeeze have snuggled into your MH, and perhaps built a little addition on to the MH, cultivated a little garden, etc., you might one day be told you have ‘X’ number of months to ‘vacate’. Put that MH ‘trailer’ on a flatbed, lipsync ‘Sayonara’, and exit per your termination notice.
Ask yourself what your options are…. Who do you owe money to under what conditions, where can you go, and how do you get from point A to point B? Is there MH Park growth, or exactly the opposite? Life became so much more complicated when housing became less about ‘homes’ and all about ‘trafficking real estate’.
These are early days in the coming ‘Revolution’, after all………
#54 Sail Away and #55 Faron, Thanks for your response. Thanks for hosting Garth.
Already down by huge percentage – February had lousy sales. Buyer have jumped to USA to pick up 20-50 houses for under a million.
BC housing is dead for 20 years.
https://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/gloomy-economic-outlook-elevated-mortgages-to-drag-down-2023-b-c-housing-market-bcrea
Vancouver’s 9.7% property tax increase got nothing on Lake Country.
Lake Country has passed a budget that includes a property tax increase of more than 17 per cent.
Giddy up.
And if real estate is starting to pop again it ain’t good on the inflation front, meaning crank those rates more.
Looks to me like a good ol’ fight that the paying public is bound to eventually lose if inflation does not come back to the bank target.
88 Q
“Jason the facts/numbers don’t support your statement”
—————————————————————
Hi Q. Years ago, statscan had a very telling table. It outlined income among “economic” families, and you could select renters or owners, with or without a mortgage.
Even at that time, many posters expressed concern for the “average” (or median) debt level of Canadians.
But the table was clear in its findings. The owners with mortgages had the highest incomes.
I dont know if the info has ever been updated.
Put your crash helmets on and buckle up. Despair comes very fast.
#31 Shawn ——Good move on your decision to leave for awhile. Give your thoughts a bit of rest. No use in creating unwanted conflict. Take care. I enjoyed reading your contributions.
DELETED (Conspiracy nut)
@#85 Sail Away
“I personally think an RRSP is a better situation than a pension because then nobody else is setting rules about how much it pays and to whom. If someone with a pension dies early after contributing their entire working life, then yes, there probably should be some benefit to their dependents.
Does that make sense?
++++
You forgot to mention that a private RRSP goes up and down in value with the vagaries of the stock market.
Public servant pensions are rock solid, guaranteed, and backed by the taxes govts collect off the backs or the private sector.
And why is a govt employees pension based on their BEST five years of employment?
Why isn’t the pension based on their over all contributions?
You know…like the private sector shmoos investing in RRSP’s?.
Either way.
Public sector pensions are sucking more and more money out of govt tax receipts to keep it solvent and its unsustainable….no matter how many public sector pensioners are in denial.
Eventually it will be an election issue.
When a politician has the unenviable task of cutting costs everywhere.
On another note.
A coworkers’ common law spouse dropped dead at 59.
Never even got to draw CPP….. let alone retire.
Paid into it for 40+ years….
His estate will receive a $2500 lump sum payment from CPP.
That barely covers the cost of the obituary and cremation.
Maybe that was the govts plan all along.
@#97 Lake Gangster
“Lake Country has passed a budget that includes a property tax increase of more than 17 per cent.”
+++
My my my.
Lake Country and Surrey BC have something in common.
Who knew.
Yep.
Its “catch up” time and with the public sector unions demanding HUGE wage and benefit increases…..10% per year on average….
The govt is being crushed between the employee wage “Rock” and the inflation “Hard Place”.
The looming, inevitable Wage and Price spiral is gonna kick theorizing economists and Bank of Canada Governor’s in the goolies.
Property owners better buckle up.
You’re the soft, easy target in the govt crosshairs…..
If you’re a property mortgage holder and owner you MUST be rich!
Sorry you’re the last to find that out.
:)
Taxes, sewer, water, garbage collection all delivered by lazy, surly govt employees….
Uppa uppa uppa
Insurance, maintenance repairs, heating fuel….
Uppa uppa uppa….
Renting (with govt controlled rent hikes)an apartment doesnt seem so bad right about now.
….kickin the can down the road….
Dead cat bounce.
All my friends are stressed with mtg payments doubling. Some who became landlords are losing cash every month. They want to raise rents, but the tenants are pushing back.
Unless the bankers start loosening the purse strings, we have a long way down.
Hi Garth and Team….when ever you discuss the RE markets your comments almost always focus on Vancouver and Toronto and even smaller surrounding towns. You provide great stats supporting sale volumes , house price values, average days on market etc…. However, Montreal is almost never mentioned and if it is there is no actual data cited:
“Four weeks ago the average price nationally had fallen 23%. Detached sale prices in Toronto were off 22%. Sales levels in Vancouver and Toronto had crated by up to 55%. In Montreal, even worse. Ditto for Halifax.”
Montreal is the second most populous city in Canada and I am curious why there are so why few mentions with specific stats to high light this market?
https://nationalpost.com/news/local-news/how-a-canada-revenue-agency-strike-could-impact-the-2023-tax-season/wcm/7b208968-f342-45bf-aee1-1f19534dc61d
Soooo.
If 30,000 CRA employees march to Ottawa and stand around burn barrels waving Canadian Flags while holding placards with outrageous demands…..
Can we declare the Emergency Measures Act?
The bulk of all assets and most of the money will end up in the hands of a select few. Same as it ever was.
Worse now, though.
The financially savvy, ultra clever ambitious people, highly educated professionals with desirable sought after skills, inheritors of old money and their families, for generations to come, will own and control a significantly disproportionate share of the market.
The rest of the plebes will get crumbs – some of them with more than enough to live a comfortable and even somewhat relatively luxurious life, but the vast majority (say, in the 80%-90% range) will be grinding it out, paycheque to paycheque, using massive debt to float themselves.
The crushing debts of each generation destroys the opportunities for the successor generation to build on previous family wealth, because, well, there is none, and they have to essentially follow that path (subsistence income subsidized by disproportionate debt) in perpetuity.
Few make it out of this trap.
Western society breeds rabid consumers.
Buy until you die.
The wealth concentration continues.
It’s an old story.
I like re-runs.
#90 Me on 02.27.23 at 12:18 am
#88 Quintilian
“The data you referenced is 6 years old. My salary almost doubled since then.”
Here is something more recent, keeping in mind that stats can vary greatly depending on methodology, nonetheless, incomes do NOT reflect prices.
Although one could make an argument around income equality/inequality in Toronto and Vancouver, you still cannot make an argument that the prices in those two cities are explained by higher incomes.
Your salary doubled in 6 years?
Did you give up your medical practice to become a realtor?
IT’S A BUBBLE
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK
https://wowa.ca/average-income-canada
Buffett, via his holding Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) – Get Free Report, invested in BYD in 2008, by acquiring 225 million shares, equivalent to about $232 million. Since then, the investment has grown substantially, with BYD’s stock price rising significantly over the years.
———————-
With Shawn gone for a while, I’ll ask Sailo:
Are you ok with your hero investing in China?
#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.27.23 at 9:29 am
https://nationalpost.com/news/local-news/how-a-canada-revenue-agency-strike-could-impact-the-2023-tax-season/wcm/7b208968-f342-45bf-aee1-1f19534dc61d
Soooo.
If 30,000 CRA employees march to Ottawa and stand around burn barrels waving Canadian Flags while holding placards with outrageous demands…..
Can we declare the Emergency Measures Act?
^^^^^^^^^^^^
Are you really that stupid?
I’ve been giving a lot of thought to the Trudeau government legislating EVs to replace ICE vehicles.
I think the government should instead legislate that all vehicles should be powered by perpetual motion propulsion.
The chances of success are about the same, and the payoff is infinitely higher. From a government, activist and bureaucrat perspective this makes way more sense and physics, chemistry, math and engineering are ignored anyway.
#106 Montrealer on 02.27.23 at 9:11 am
Montreal is the second most populous city in Canada and I am curious why there are so why few mentions with specific stats to high light this market?
*******************************************
Shh! The longer the rest of the country doesn’t realize that Montreal and its surroundings are a nice place to live, the less likely the property markets are to go insane.
#103 Furz
Renting (with govt controlled rent hikes)an apartment doesnt seem so bad right about now.
———————
Furz likes Communism.
When it suits him.
Hypocrite!
@#108 Dharma Bum on 02.27.23 at 9:36 am——–“The bulk of all assets and most of the money will end up in the hands of a select few. Same as it ever was.” +++
Agreed, and why would it be otherwise? Peeps have this utopian idea that equality of opportunity will result in equality of outcome, but skill sets, intelligence, good looks, hard work, and cunning all play a role. Maybe throw in luck as well. Life has never been fair, but the smart ones who prosper financially and in life use what’s in their tool belt. Legislation ands social engineering make a dent in trying to bring about equality, but never think it ain’t a jungle out there. Be Rambo or be square.
#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.27.23 at 10:16 am
With Shawn gone for a while, I’ll ask Sailo:
Are you ok with your hero investing in China?
——–
Of course. I have nothing against China.
My other hero Elon has a Tesla factory there.
#106 montrealer
they don’t want us there
#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.27.23 at 8:09 am
@#85 Sail Away
“I personally think an RRSP is a better situation than a pension because then nobody else is setting rules about how much it pays and to whom. If someone with a pension dies early after contributing their entire working life, then yes, there probably should be some benefit to their dependents.
Does that make sense?”
——–
You forgot to mention that a private RRSP goes up and down in value with the vagaries of the stock market.
Public servant pensions are rock solid, guaranteed, and backed by the taxes govts collect off the backs or the private sector.
——–
Yes, a solid defined benefit payment gives peace of mind. Public plans also contribute around 9%, while private companies are closer to 4 or 5%.
On the other hand, private industry usually pays better with more room to advance.
Over 30 years, an RRSP at $15k contribution/year at average market return 8% = $2M.
I’d personally much rather have $2M in my RRSP than a $50k payment for life.
The people receiving pension have contributed significantly to it. It’s not a free handout.
#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.27.23 at 10:16 am
Buffett, via his holding Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) – ….
With Shawn gone for a while, I’ll ask Sailo:
Are you ok with your hero investing in China?
***********
Why do you ask Sailo?
Write a letter to the Berkshire
shareholders and ask them. They won’t answer you, just laugh and twirl their fingers at their temples.
Money doesn’t smell !!!
Investments companies should not be interested in the political system of the country, but only in what kind of profit he will receive in the country.
Sometimes, however, you have to look for workarounds for investments, because there are idiots who have not earned a single dollar in their life, but like to pry into other people’s affairs.
#85 Sail Away on 02.26.23 at 9:36 pm
Let me weigh into this, A. I’m not totally onboard with your thoughts, because…
1. Many public pension plans eliminate most of a person’s RRSP room
2. Many private employers contribute to employees’ RRSPs
3. With a pension, it pays out a certain amount, then some death benefit or can carry over to the spouse/beneficiary for a certain amount of time… but… when it’s gone, it’s gone.
4. If I croak with an RRSP, the entire RRSP becomes my beneficiary’s. This is not the case with a pension.
I personally think an RRSP is a better situation than a pension because then nobody else is setting rules about how much it pays and to whom. If someone with a pension dies early after contributing their entire working life, then yes, there probably should be some benefit to their dependents.
Does that make sense?
=================================
COMMENT:
Good points…
Your points about RRSP basically imply the party has more control and access to their funds as opposed to other options.
My spouse retired and after 30+ years at her last private sector (union)job she has a lump sum now available she can now invest as she pleases. This year we are both eligible for OAP and CPP gov’ts pensions. I have no issue with Gov’t pensions that are available to ALL.
No pension is safe per se….
……I follow what is going on in the US public sector. There is much bad news unfolding and it was predictable…they were UNsustainable. Perhaps BLM was “supported” by Woke politicians to “defund” the police as a means to slash budgets to avoid bankruptcy.
California is in dires straits..it has had a net loss of 700,000 people over last 2 years(ie in excess of births .migration and immigration) because it is the 2nd most highly taxed state and people are fed up. Much of this is due to the well paid civil service. LAPD has a detective making $250,000 year. One school superintendent makes over $1 million year.It appears most of California state revenues are from Income Tax…and 6% of the population pays 65% of this tax. OUCH !
When pensions were created the actuaries did not plan on extended life expectancy so this fact rapidly drains the pension funds. Old models needed to be adjusted, not simply throw more tax $$$ at the problem.
Pension funds appear to be scrambling to make investments that can cover their increasingly unfunded liabilities.
Re: Our CIVIL SERVANTS ?
Are making bad moves with a mad dash to the public trough indulging in more entitlement and delusions of grandeur….moreso as the private sector and average taxpayer is struggling on many fronts. These Public Servants should be thankful they have well paid jobs and literally for life. Many are seeking HUGE increases, and as I pointed out, their pension is based on their 5 best earning years…so that increase they get compounds waaayyy into their pension. My understanding is many public sector pensions are approx. 75% of their annual ages/salaries. Wow.
Who pays for that? WE DO!
I also mentioned many in Public Sector double dip.
After retiring they return as subs…or contract workers.etc etc. Here in BC..the Transit police are often police that are retired from RCMP..VPD…etc. on full pension..then obtain an even higher salary as Transit Cop
These public trough $$$ addicts elbow out the younger crowd from opportunities. Sheer greed.
What are/were Gov’ts thinking agreeing to these generous Gov’t pensions?
In USA…they are facing reality..while in Canada…they will in all likelihood cut very generous contracts to the bully public sector unions…..AGAIN…which to me implies the bully Public Sector unions are another shadow gov’t controlling the official one.
So….the Public Sector pensions are UNsustainable and need to be addressed. They work for us. Every extra $ THEY get is one less for the more needy,…. less indulged…. less”entitled” and whose lot and quality life increasingly declines.
” Let them eat Cake” comes to mind.
The public should not be obligated to this, and should instead no longer tolerate it.
#116 Sail Away on 02.27.23 at 11:32 am
#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.27.23 at 10:16 am
With Shawn gone for a while, I’ll ask Sailo:
Are you ok with your hero investing in China?
——–
Of course. I have nothing against China.
My other hero Elon has a Tesla factory there.
________________
so, let’s say your “heroes” would invest in Russia.
You okay with that, too?
94 Jag – thanks. Much to consider.
Locally, there are several larger MH parks, perhaps a few more smaller ones. Many are noted as “55+” but I recall at least one has a “family section”.
Some of these must now go back to the 70s, as listings
state the year constructed, assuming the MH was moved to that location when new. More recent (less old?) MH parks can be “Bare Land” strata, as my in-law’s was about 30 years ago. In their case, there were a number of leases and sub-leases (owner? Developer? MH park operator?) and I never did figure it all out. For them it did not really matter, as their remaining lifespan was limited.
Again locally, I’ve never heard of the situation of winding up a MHP and sending residents packing. My guess is the local governments never consider re-zoning them for that very reason. What that can do of course is make developers reluctant to create them in the first place.
Another strange thing I find is where they can be located. Many are relatively isolated, miles from any amenities.
I still see them as a lower cost form of housing, and a particular market for seniors (leading to more available
SFH for younger generations) but they may not be a realistic alternative in many parts of Canada.
76 Russ – OK so maybe not cedar. How bout Cassidy?
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/25076723/60-1572-seabird-rd-nanaimo-extension
#115 the Jaguar on 02.27.23 at 10:49 am
@#108 Dharma Bum on 02.27.23 at 9:36 am
Don’t let the impossibility of a completely egalitarian society (there will always be greedy jerks) distract you from the rapidly accelerating inequality in wealth that’s leaving double-digit percentages of Canadians and Americans (NTM the global poor) sucking dust while the 1% snorfle up everything in sight.
#111 Observer on 02.27.23 at 10:22 am
#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.27.23 at 9:29 am
https://nationalpost.com/news/local-news/how-a-canada-revenue-agency-strike-could-impact-the-2023-tax-season/wcm/7b208968-f342-45bf-aee1-1f19534dc61d
Soooo.
If 30,000 CRA employees march to Ottawa and stand around burn barrels waving Canadian Flags while holding placards with outrageous demands…..
Can we declare the Emergency Measures Act?
^^^^^^^^^^^^
Are you really that stupid?
==================
Crowdie is postulating…what IF ?
Could get interesting.
My guess is NO…based on what happened to Truckers Convoy.
The default is if Trudeau and Co cave in…then you pay more taxes to pay for tax collectors’ salaries….then the rest of the civil services cry ” Me Too ” . All sunshine lollipops and unicorns…”Owe Canada”
Durable good orders down 4.5% and already overvalued equities spike ’cause that might mean slowing rate rises? Equity markets are broken. GL
#119 VladTor on 02.27.23 at 12:03 pm
#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.27.23 at 10:16 am
Buffett, via his holding Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) – ….
With Shawn gone for a while, I’ll ask Sailo:
Are you ok with your hero investing in China?
***********
Why do you ask Sailo?
Write a letter to the Berkshire
shareholders and ask them. They won’t answer you, just laugh and twirl their fingers at their temples.
Money doesn’t smell !!!
Investments companies should not be interested in the political system of the country, but only in what kind of profit he will receive in the country.
Sometimes, however, you have to look for workarounds for investments, because there are idiots who have not earned a single dollar in their life, but like to pry into other people’s affairs.
—————
I like to consult with “experts”.
Next time I’ll consult with you.
Did not know your were a hard core capitalist.
“Money does not smell”?
Money drenched in blood sure does.
And BTW, Sailo is a big boy.
He can answer for himself.
Don’t become a FURZ.
Coyote alert, 2nd coyote on the prowl!
#115 the Jaguar on 02.27.23 at 10:49 am
@#108 Dharma Bum on 02.27.23 at 9:36 am——–“The bulk of all assets and most of the money will end up in the hands of a select few. Same as it ever was.” +++
Agreed, and why would it be otherwise? Peeps have this utopian idea that equality of opportunity will result in equality of outcome, but skill sets, intelligence, good looks, hard work, and cunning all play a role. Maybe throw in luck as well. Life has never been fair, but the smart ones who prosper financially and in life use what’s in their tool belt. Legislation ands social engineering make a dent in trying to bring about equality, but never think it ain’t a jungle out there. Be Rambo or be square.
***********
If SJW’s were truly serious about diversity and inclusion based on immutable genetic characteristics, they’d be demanding that 50% of every corporate BOD and government cabinet consist of people with an IQ less than 100.
#120 Adolf
I also mentioned many in Public Sector double dip.
After retiring they return as subs…or contract workers.etc etc. Here in BC..the Transit police are often police that are retired from RCMP..VPD…etc. on full pension..then obtain an even higher salary as Transit Cop
——————-
Same in the Private Sector.
As soon as they take off with their Golden Parachutes.
They become overpaid consultants, often for Governments.
Or hit the speaker circuit.
Take off your blinders.
DELETED (Anti-vaccine whackadoodle)
@#111 Obstinate server
“Are you really that stupid?”
+++
Apparently you were absent when they were handing out sarcasm….
Covid?
Waymo going fully driverless in its third city. Developers seeing excellent ability in the ML model to generalize among these locales. Tesla freezing roll out of FSD ’cause it’s dangerous L2 garbage.
Expecting a big TSLA pump at it’s event on the 1st (nothing from the previous event was accomplished, BTW. We can expect more stock pumping empty promises). Thereafter? When the house of cards folds, it’s going to make the drop from $450 to $100 look like a bull run.
I recall a commenter who was selling covered calls near $100. LOL.
@#118 Sail Away
“Over 30 years, an RRSP at $15k contribution/year at average market return 8% = $2M.”
+++
….average 8% per annum?
Where are you investing….. Zimbabwe?
#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.27.23 at 12:17 pm
#116 Sail Away on 02.27.23 at 11:32 am
#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.27.23 at 10:16 am
With Shawn gone for a while, I’ll ask Sailo:
Are you ok with your hero investing in China?
——–
Of course. I have nothing against China.
My other hero Elon has a Tesla factory there.
——–
so, let’s say your “heroes” would invest in Russia.
You okay with that, too?
——–
How many roads must a man walk down
Before you call him a man?
How many seas must a white dove sail
Before she sleeps in the sand?
Yes, and how many times must the cannonballs fly
Before they’re forever banned?
The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
The answer is blowin’ in the wind
@#129 Ponzie’s prediction Paradigm.
“Same in the Private Sector.
As soon as they take off with their Golden Parachutes.
They become overpaid consultants, often for Governments.
Or hit the speaker circuit.”
+++
I call BS.
Ponzies Planet Payola.
The ratio of of public “servants” that immediately double dip after retirement at 47, 50 55, etc. are off the chart.
They vastly outnumbers the retirees from the private sector that are lucky enough to retire at 55,60,65.
ALL the consultants I have dealt with on govt contracts were ex govt employees that wandered over to the very same companies they were supposed to be overseeing when they were in govt.
A shameful conflict of interest.
One can only imaging the wailing and howling from retired , pensioned govt workers if Public servants were BANNED from working for 3-5 years for the very same companies they were responsible to oversee when in govt.
Disgusting doesnt even begin to describe the conflict of interests involved…
#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.27.23 at 1:46 pm
@#118 Sail Away
“Over 30 years, an RRSP at $15k contribution/year at average market return 8% = $2M.”
——–
….average 8% per annum?
Where are you investing….. Zimbabwe?
——–
??
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY?p=SPY&.tsrc=fin-srch
Total 30-year CAGR, including yield = 9.12%
#112 Re-Cowtown on 02.27.23 at 10:32 am
I’ve been giving a lot of thought to the Trudeau government legislating EVs to replace ICE vehicles……..
________________________________
The gov’t can legislate all they want. The goal is not achievable and is destined to fail. It’s taken 100+ years to develop the generating plants/electrical grids needed to power our homes, industry, and a small sprinkle of EVs. In what fantasy world will the country expand the current grid to accommodate 10’s of millions of EVs a dozen years from now? Where will all this extra electrical power come from?
#47 ‘Ustabe’ – agreed, a good LL is key to a happy renting experience. Obviously the CBC report was presenting examples of just how nasty low cost renting can be for those at the lower end of the economic scale. Much more dramatic that way. That having been said, the fact they were able to get so many examples of poor living conditions in Canada does not bode well in an era where the cost of accommodation continues to soar.
#61 ‘Alois’ – sadly, I have to agree that government intervention is not likely to improve housing affordability. First, they rely on private enterprise to take point on the solution, ignoring that a business exists to make a profit & that private enterprise is not going to invest time/money in low income housing when they can get a much better ROI on building luxury housing. Of course, the government can provide funding that permits private enterprise to make as much profit – funding paid for by taxpayers – but that also ignores the fact that there are only so many builders & skilled trades available. Again, if a company has committed to building X number of houses & they simply haven’t the staff or equipment to do ‘more’, they are not going to drop the contracts already in hand to take on projects they don’t have time to do. Especially not when the folks who deposited $ to get the work done expect the contracted completion date to occur.
Now throw in what appears to be the new standard of political backbiting, when the newly elected make a point of dismantling the policies of the previous government. Which means even if one government backs building affordable housing, the next one might just issue a cease & desist. Or change how the program is run, with the end result that it becomes a paperwork nightmare that private enterprise simply doesn’t want to deal with.
Speaking of government, think about the various taxes associated with real estate. Land transfer tax. GST/PST/harmonized sales tax. Offsite levies which can add quite a chunk of change to the cost of any new build. Governments depend on those tax revenues, so don’t see them disappearing or being reduced any time soon. Just the opposite, so even an ‘affordable’, government backed project ends up being not that affordable. In Calgary, a recent converted office building to affordable housing cost in excess of $250K per unit. That is for a building already in existence being renovated from offices to apartments. An earlier newly built project (on donated land!) also cost over $250K per unit. Said project was built within the past decade & costs for everything have gone up a lot since then, so doubt very much anything built today would cost any less.