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By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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For those investors who assumed China was a perpetual growth machine, a rather remarkable thing happened earlier this month: China reported its first annual population decline in more than 60 years.
The 2021 to 2022 population drop was less than a million people, but the fact that the data showed a record-low birth rate indicated that the Chinese population is broadly ignoring the easing of the country’s one-child policy, which was lifted in 2015. Couples are reluctant to have children because of reduced wages and a slower economy, and couples are waiting until later in life to marry. China will very shortly lose its status as the world’s most populous country:
China’s concerning population trajectory
Source: United Nations. Data for China excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
Demographic challenges are nothing new. I’ve cited Japan’s lack of population growth before; however, a potentially more concerning problem for China is that, unlike developed countries, it lacks established wealth. The old maxim of a country that’s “getting old before getting rich” is becoming increasingly applicable to China.
Several things can support a country’s long-term economic, and hence, equity-market growth. In particular: 1) ample natural resources, 2) innovation, 3) a young, productive workforce and, as noted above, 4) already established wealth. China is questionable on point 2) as its main strength is manufacturing, it’s running out of 3), which will ultimately affect manufacturing, and it has far less of 4) relative to developed nations:
Mean wealth per adult (US$), select countries
Source: Credit Suisse, Turner Investments
China’s real estate problems are also well documented. Last year, residential property sales declined 28% fueled by investor skepticism over developer defaults as well as soaring property prices. The Financial Times reports that “six wallet” has now become the home-affordability catchphrase in China. In other words, couples have to tap their own two wallets as well as those of all four of their parents to purchase a home. And an opinion piece in the South China Morning Post last year offered this blunt assessment of China’s property market:
China’s property bubble is deflating quickly. The vast industry and local governments are trying to revive it. But it won’t work. The sector is beset by developers’ financing woes and massive supply overhang amid high household debt, a property affordability crisis and, crucially, a collapse in the rate of marriage.
Registered marriages in China have been falling since 2013. The Chinese are no different than us. Were you more likely to own a home before or after marriage? You bet: after.
Equity markets have definitely taken note of all of the above. Chinese equities have underwhelmed in recent years. For example, the CSI 300 Index, roughly the Chinese equivalent of the S&P 500, has gone nowhere in the past five years (in fact, it’s declined slightly). Compare this to the S&P/TSX Composite, which is up more than 30%, or to the S&P 500, which is up almost 50%. Interestingly, even when China does record impressive economic growth as it did in 2021, the post-pandemic bounce-back year, investors are often responding with a shrug. China’s GDP grew 8.1% in 2021, but Chinese equities dropped 2%. India, as a point of comparison, grew its 2021 GDP at a similar rate (8.9%), but its equity market rose 31%.
No one is challenging the impressiveness of China’s past growth. It was exceptional. Credit Suisse, for instance, notes that China’s wealth creation between 2000 and 2021 was so impressive that it “enable[d] it to leapfrog 80 years of US history from 1925 onward within a span of 21 years.” And we know, of course, that China routinely recorded double-digit annual GDP growth throughout the early and mid-2000s. At least officially.
But such growth rates are a thing of the past. The World Bank estimates that China’s growth last year reached only 2.7%—a figure that barely kept pace with the growth rate of many developed countries (Canada, for instance, will likely record 3.8% GDP growth in 2022, according to StatCan’s early estimates).
I haven’t even touched on other issues surrounding China including the geopolitical risks associated with Taiwan or the social unrest created through its Covid response. China may be taking a more relaxed stance with its Covid lockdowns now, but it remains to be seen how long this will last, or conversely, what economic costs this new approach will extract as its health care system is strained. According to Forbes, the US has almost 35 ICU beds per 100,000 people. China only 3.6.
No globally balanced portfolio can ignore exposure to the world’s second largest economy and this may indeed be a good year for Chinese equities—they’re off to a great start and The World Bank is forecasting an economic rebound this year, estimating a more China-like 4.3% growth rate (though notably, The World Bank highlights many risks to this forecast).
However, a portfolio heavily overweighted to Chinese equities, fueled by the promise of limitless growth lasting for generations, is no longer prudent.
China’s best days are likely in the rearview.
Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.
120 comments ↓
Ottawa Real Estate Market Stats for January 2023!
After 10 months of weaker prices, the Ottawa real estate market had a relatively strong start to 2023. I would need to see a few more months of stable prices and increasing transaction volume to confirm that prices have stabilized.
Detached home prices lost 12.6% from a year ago. They were up about $18,000 on a month-to-month basis.
Townhomes lost 12.0% compared to a year ago and gained about $3,000 on a month-to-month basis.
Condos lost 8.0% compared to a year ago and lost about $20,000 on a month-to-month basis.
Market Outlook:
Mortgage rate increases seem to have topped off. This should provide some confidence to buyers. Affordability is still the biggest issue. Given that volume is down 30-40%, prices still remain vulnerable.
https://www.kirilpeev.ca/ottawa-real-estate-market-data-for-january-2023/
What would be considered overweight Chinese equities? 3%? Is it time to rotate some o’ dat to a South Korean ETF? ;)
Excellent blog topic Doug.
We also should watch the internal unrest as China’s job numbers continue to lag
“But such growth rates are a thing of the past. The World Bank estimates that China’s growth last year reached only 2.7%—a figure that barely kept pace with the growth rate of many developed countries ”
Economists have noted that China needs growth of 5 % to 7% per year to keep the graduating student population employed.
Chairman Xi has more things to worry about than raising a Communist Chinese flag over Taiwan
That being said.
As China restarts its economic engine the rest of the world should prepare for high fuel, food and commodity prices.
Inflation isn’t over yet.
Agreeing with the conclusion, and this is obviously the best case scenario.
It is important for us too. Western nations have been growing debt bubbles now for decades, this should have long ago created inflation and higher interest rates, but that was delayed by China’s productivity gains and surpluses.
This era is now over and that’s a big deal because it means it won’t be so easy to stimulate the economy with credit without creating inflation.
In her story The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas, Ursula Le Guin described a society where the joy of its citizens depended upon the “abominable misery” of a single child immured in a dungeon. Le Guin asked the reader if even great happiness could justify suffering. Humanity’s relationship to animals is predicated on a similar utilitarian calculus. Like the town of Omelas, we have made a silent pact to dominate pets for our benefit, despite the cost to the pets themselves, to wild and farmed animals, and to our own morality.
Pets’ popularity has turned these humble animals into an economic and ecological force on a global scale. There are 900 million dogs and 700 million cats (both owned and feral) worldwide. Half of US households own an animal, while the number of pets in China has grown from virtually nil – dogs were once banned in Beijing – to 251 million. At $260bn, the global pet market is worth more than the solar and wind energy sectors combined.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/04/want-to-truly-have-empathy-for-animals-stop-owning-pets
Inflation Was Never Going to be Transitory
I was remined of this by a recent article that pointed out as follows.
Imagine a one-time boost in prices of say an extra 7% caused by higher energy and other factors. Bringing total inflation to 9% including the normal 2%. And imagine there were no further increases but no deflation, no price drops.
The year over-year inflation would be up by the extra 7% (to about 9%) for 12 months in a row and only in the 13th month would it drop back to the underlying level of say 2%.
So in this example a one-time price increase affects the annual number for 12 months.
This EXACT scenario played out when the GST came in at 7% in January 1991. Inflation was automatically higher for the next 12 months in a row and then dipped in January 1992. (I say this confidently but Dolce can check the data). The bump would not have been fully 7% since food was excluded and the manufacturing sales tax ended but a lot of items were up by about 7%.
So anyone saying inflation was transitory, perhaps meaning a one time bump, was always going to get crushed in the public opinion because even a transitory bump lasts 12 months unless there is actual deflation.
In fact energy prices are down from the peak and we have had some months of deflation but the headline year over year figures remain elevated because they are year over year.
About the Chinese Balloon:
Don’t worry, it’s only a “Trial Balloon”.
Good article today Ryan on China, from a Western layman’s point of view, the Chinese economy is less outward looking and more state dominated, this alone may become a Thorne in their side for growth.
China appears to have adopted an idea of buying more of its own products rather than imports from other countries, leaving other countries with a smaller piece of the pie for their economic needed boost.
I am not a politician, but from my view on the outside looking in, perhaps China should be looking at learning away from geopolitics and ideology decisions, old boardroom school ideas like that always leave people at the back of the racetrack, swallow your pride an move on.
China’s selected silence at times tends to show the world, they are leaning favorites most heavily toward the Russian Invasion, this appearance may not do them any favors in the end. Beijing cannot have it both ways by distancing itself from the Ukraine war, all while supporting Russia. These ideas alone, could be a long-term downfall from any recovery for the Chinese Markets. China at times is also trying to manage its relationship with Washington, delicate balance in the air, now the recent so-called environmental balloon sets in on the horizon concerns for friend or foe, let us see how this plays out.
As for us Canucks, it appeared that Mr. XI put Mr. Trudeau in his place, I am proud that he did, sadly I would assume that left a sour taste in Trudeau’s mouth for any future benefits for China business, let’s wait and see, “how did that feel Just-in-time”.
For now, I will stay away from any China Markets for right or for wrong, I did not agree with their crackdowns on the tech and education sectors to pandemic related disruptions and western snubbing, for myself I see hurdles that must be worked out, before I jump back in, having said that, I wish them nothing but success, if I am missing out, shame on me.
Quote of the day: a friendship founded on business is a good deal better than a business founded on friendship
No one buys or even looks when sales are collapsing. Ride the housing markets down to the bottom of the cycle before you spend.
Great article Doug!
One of the major things that China lacks is immigration of talented people with new ideas. Canada and the US are able to attract scientists, software developers, doctors etc. from all over the world thereby ensuring progression and innovation for years to come. China not so much. They’ve gotten good at copying stuff and manufacturing for others due to a low cost labour force but that’s about it. Sooner or later your economic growth will level off.
And as for those of you on this blog always moaning about how it’s over for Canada, you certainly don’t appear to get out much. Out of country that is.
“China’s best days are likely in the rearview.”
DOUBT IT!!
Xi Jinping will soon be gone. The shackles of communism and control will be obliterated. 1.5 billion of the world’s most intelligent people will finally get to live a life they’ve always wanted then BOOOOM!
We will witness the REBIRTH of capitalism to the likes that we have never seen before.
Aahhh China.
Paid off my student loans pretty quickly working there. Also met some amazing people, spent a lot of time at a Canadian owned sports bar where I drank snake wine, ‘warming’ up at karaoke bars…frequently, 5 star buffets in Kowloon, secret doors hiding pirated goods, underground cities, cohibas, tea ceremonies….lots of hugging…phhhheeewww!
Man, what is considered normal there blows the socks off boring ol’Canada…
Great post, Doug!
Og
RE conversation : “Mandatory” EV’s in 10 -15 Years
“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
12 nuclear plants? 113 dams? That’s how much Canada is short of its green energy needs, report says | The Star
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/12/01/12-nuclear-plants-113-dams-thats-how-much-canada-is-short-of-its-green-energy-needs-report-says.html
Watch what thye do, not what they say….Climate Change is a grift.
“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away.” Philip K. Dick
“China’s best days are likely in the rearview.”
In terms of growth rates, yes.
In terms of rising average and typical standards of living, they are just getting started.
Their GDP will still be massively higher in 20 years and apparently the population lower. GDP per capita will rise sharply.
#113 Dharma Bum on 02.04.23 at 9:15 am
#83 Ponzie
Just saying the EVs are not the answer to congestion and need for massive road infrastructure expenditures.
Only mass public transport is.
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You are bang on.
Trouble is, sadly, that in our lifetimes (an likely that of our children), in this country for sure, that’s never going to happen.
I mean, look at Toronto, for example. The city had every opportunity to create a world class state of the art subway system to augment the primitive system they commenced in the 50’s.
What did they do?
Almost nothing. They put a meagre addition onto an already outdated system, which was obsolete by the time it was completed.
()()()()
Dharma Bum,
Will you be totally shocked to learn one day that a bunch of politicians were paid by some car company executives to NOT develop the Toronto system?
It’s a story that’s been played out over and over again. They (car bought streetcar systems, they bought trolleys, bus lines, and then shut it all down to force people into cars. Then they built a highway systems instead.
This action of setting public transit back by shutting it down and/or making it inefficient has worked amazingly well.
I came here from a small town with minimal public transit bus based system, and was blown away by trolley buses running on Lansdowne, Bay, streetcars, subway, etc. I was quite impressed.
Then I saw the Paris system. The Tokyo…no make that Japan system, and came back here and realized by world wide standards, the TTC is easily many decades behind. As is Canada on a whole. And since you stated 50s as a start of this stall, I wouldn’t argue with you at all if you insisted that this system has been set back by 50-70 years. Oh sure, new streetcars that took forever and are still set back all over town because of lengthy, seemingly never ending track work.
I’m betting this “accidental incompetence” is no coincidence at all.
Reality is we’ve seen endless effort to preserve interests or undermine interests by corporate entities. When piles of money are on the line, ethics, morals, good of humanity…well, they hardly figure in the profit calculation.
#90 VladTor on 02.03.23 at 10:16 pm
500,000 immigrants a year will come. I don’t mind if it’s necessary.
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Demographics Part 2: The Canadian Treadmill…Stops
https://zeihan.com/demographics-part-2-the-canadian-treadmillstops/
Canada is a Farm, the conditions, economic and social are so poor that the domestic Farm Animals have stopped breeding……we need imports to keep the Farm functioning.
Telco’s need more customers, our Banks need more Mortgages, Galen needs more eaters…..all the protected oligopolies need more income streams, Canada is a company run town with a company store.
Going forward the key to success: “Pick your parents carefully”
Great post. China has a business case issue too. Their economy was built in the background behind the brands, technology, and innovation of the West, essentially supplying cheap labour and manufacturing to the world. This is the lowest paying rung on the ladder, and technology is slowly eliminating the once benefit of a workforce who will toil for 2.00/hr USD.
China’s problem is that nobody will pay a premium for their products. In their rush to modern industry, they neglected their brand and reputation, and instead chased work based on being the lowest bidder. Today, China is synonymous with producing cheap low end products the world over, and this sentiment will persist even after the reality changes (and it actually has in many areas).
China will eventually have to compete with the rest of the world on its own two feet, under its own brands, innovation, and technology, and beyond that – build stuff that wealthier people globally want to buy, and will pay a premium for.
Look at Japan. In 40 years they built brands, products, and such consumer faith and trust, that the West is now filled with folks who are literally Japanese brand partisans (raises hand). It takes decades to achieve this, but when it’s done, guys like me will pay a 100% premium for a YAMAHA Grizzly over a CF Moto. The sucker punch for China is that they manufacture a good chunk of the components that go into a Grizzly (for peanuts), but YAMAHA makes all the money.
Imagine having a bunch of Camo-clad American good ol’ boys discussing ATV’s over a few six packs after a day of Bass fishing and Deer hunting – crapping on the one guy in the group who owns a Polaris Sportsman (made in the USA) – as riding an unreliable POS. Then extolling the rock-solid reliability and class leading innovations of their own Japanese built machines…
That’s what China needs to achieve.
We interrupt this program to bring you positive and uplifting news, (NP):
“Recent reporting by Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. shows the two companies have moved more than 30 million tonnes of Prairie grain since the summer. That’s an above-average performance.
It came in the middle of the worst food inflation since the early 1980s and worries that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would cause mass starvation by choking off the supply of wheat and corn from one of the world’s most important bread baskets. The world needed Canada’s grain, and CN and CP controlled the infrastructure connecting fields to ports.
Despite problems this fall, both railways posted profit gains in their fourth-quarter earnings updates. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. analyst Walter Spracklin called it “an impressive result to say the least.”
Canada, 3.8 million square miles. Our railways the backbone of the nation. Thank you CN & CP for your service to the country. +++
Now back to trash talking Xi Jinping……
Can they build EV charging infrastructure fast enough?
Dharma Bum late yesterday’s edition said:
All the hype about EVs in the next 5-10 years is propaganda and hopium.
Ain’t gonna happen at the speed they claim it is. They will not be able to build the charging infrastructure fast enough.
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Well, as one who owns an EV and a home charger and as one who worked for and regulated electric utilities for decades, I have a different view.
Home chargers are quick and easy to install. But costly. Mine was over $4000.
At 45 amps, I normally would have needed a panel upgrade. But I included an Energy management system (cost about $1200) that automatically turns off my charger if the power is needed elsewhere in my house. The utility still sees me as a 100 amp maximum house.
If a lot of houses did this the load would still go up somewhat at peak hours even if many were off at peak hours due to the energy management system. (But home chargers are ideal to turn off at peak hours). My utility, FortisAlberta is running a pilot project to turn my charger off via my phone at peak hours. I opted out of tha. But give people and incentive and they will be in.
EV’s can be charged at home overnight. There is almost zero need for a home charger to be running during peak hours. Therefore no new distribution infrastructure may be needed.
Fast highway and commercial chargers WILL need to run during peak hours and will require some system upgrades.
I really don’t know of the distribution utility will need any upgrade for home chargers but they will need some for commercial and highway charges.
My local utility, FortisAlberta, will JUMP at the chance to upgrade the system as needed. Why? Because the way they are regulated they earn a regulated return on every dollar invested in assets. They are totally incented to add to the grid when needed.
Look at every electric distribution and transmission utility in this country and you will see that their assets and earnings have risen steadily for years. They will all JUMP at the chance to upgrade their systems as needed.
As to generation, that is mostly deregulated and will also be built as needed.
Don’t be so sure that the EV wave is hyped. It’s coming fast, actually.
P.S. buy shares in electric distribution utilities. (specifically Fortis Inc.)
Personally, I’m much more optimistic about China.
Obviously, they could not sustain the 10%+ growth of the last 30 years.
those gloating over the “eminent” decline of China should be careful what they wish for:
A poor China would certainly fall back into Mao style Communism.
Her powerful Navy combined with Russias nuclear might, could lead to a new much larger Iron Curtain.
Which would lead to a huge military build up in the West .
Have we not been there already?
Let’s play all nice kids.
And stop the Red baiting.
My family will certainly visit China again.
No that Covid is over.
The Credit Suisse wealth number for Canada is wrong that you have in your chart.
Does not square with StatCan Wealth data.
Here is the CS report, page 13:
https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html
[Source: James Davies, Rodrigo Lluberas and Anthony Shorrocks, Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2022]
Latest StaCan Wealth data:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610066001
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Work it out on your own why CS Messrs. Davies, Lluberas and Shorrocks mucked it up (for Canada).
My emerging markets exposure is through an etf that excludes China. I don’t want to make money from a country run by a regime that uses labour camps and forced sterilization of minorities. I’m happy to pay more if companies bring their manufacturing back to North America. Boycott China!
#13 Dogman01
Quite possibly the most confusing Report about the Cdn Electricity grid vs. EV impact in the future I have ever read.
But, they tried and that is a good thing. Pretty though.
Calculations are simple, DIY.
1. Take surplus electrical energy for Canada.
2. Use an EV with reliable energy consumption data, like a Tesla 3 incl. average km/year usage.
3. Find the number of registered motor vehicles in Canada.
4. Calculate total electrical consumption for #3 based on a Tesla 3 energy consumption.
5. Subtract from surplus energy.
6. Correct for EVs already in use in Canada.
7. Calculate what the net, total electricity shortfall is.
2018 only year you can easily calculate the above where you have readily available apples to apples data. Why that Report stumbles with 2020 data.
Conclusion for 2018, if all registered motor vehicles were a Tesla 3 Canada would need the equivalent of, to make up the shortfall:
23 Hoover Dams, takes 5 years to build one.
In 2018 that would have meant electricity rationing &/or blackouts. That number would be less if Cdn electricity exports cease and are used instead for domestic EV power (Quebec will not be happy).
Current EV Owners enjoy the ride for now.
Reasons why China’s future growth will not be the same as the past 30 years:
1. Silence on Russian invasion gives the global impression you support Putin’s invasion.
2. You can’t spend 5-6 years using trade blackmail against countries that dare speak out against anything you do not like without eventual blowback.
3. Wages are 3x higher than neighbouring Asian countries.
4. Bullying all its neighbours.
5. Demographics: the worst on the planet.
6. Listen to recent public sentiment from western politicians, especially since Russian invasion, many are seeing China as the worlds biggest threat. Not a safe place to have supply chains.
7. Housing bubble.
8. Any country with a supreme leader for life has about a 20 year shelf life. My theory. That’s how long it takes to consolidate supreme power, and start believing your own propaganda, and feel you need to correct historical wrongs before you die.
The pacific-USA security partnerships over the past year will likely reflect economic partnerships, and lack thereof, moving forward. The Chinese communist party could always change course, but that won’t happen under Xi.
The global power balance in 10 years will look very different.
Well could argue the last 20 plus years of explosive growth were, in spite of, their biggest problem – their abusive, paranoid, dictatorship government. That shift to be “the worlds factory” worked fabulously, cheap labour, non-existent laws, subsidised everything, all in exchange for doing things the CCP approves of. The ‘west’ voted with their wallet and the rest is history.
If only the CCP was thrown out decades ago it would be a completely different world. Middle kingdom would be on par with their neighbours SK & JP.
“Canada, for instance, will likely record 3.8% GDP growth in 2022, according to StatCan’s early estimates.” –“At least officially.”
“China’s real estate problems are also well documented.”
“as its health care system is strained.”
“China’s best days are likely in the rearview.”
China bashing is fine & dandy, but do you even own a mirror?
I notice on the chart showing mean wealth per adult that Americans are much wealthier than Canadians.
Just the other day a couple of people were claiming otherwise.
Another example of what a mistake it is to let your political opinions overrule reality.
They really made a big mistake with that one child policy.
“Demographic challenges are nothing new. I’ve cited Japan’s lack of population growth before; however, a potentially more concerning problem for China is that, unlike developed countries, it lacks established wealth. The old maxim of a country that’s “getting old before getting rich” is becoming increasingly applicable to China.”
China lacks a powerful middle class. Shop and Trade unions are illegal.
The “middle class” is an invention of the 20th Century. The generation that fought WW1 gave us the Winnipeg General Strike in 1919.
Although it did not turn out well for the organizers, it established unionization throughout western Canada. In Alberta, the United Farmers of Alberta (UFA) formed the government from 1921 to 1935.
Western farmers and tradesman embraced labour rights, “marxism” and the Progressive (socialists) party at the federal level.
Mackenzie King, a life-long bachelor ended up PM in 1921. He embraced ideas from the Progressive Party and was the father of the modern day “nanny state”.
There was a counterculture, like any societal change. They had their conservative activists too: their own Rex Murphys and Jordan Peterson throwing insults and accusing them of destroying society, insulting the sanctity of marriage, and other “moral panics” like women’s right to the vote.
Modern day Trudeau would be viewed as conservative. Married, 3 kids and not a big supporter of labour rights he is certainly not as radical has our ancestors would have liked.
History forgot about them and marched forward. It is easy to forget about them today but the evidence shows that Doug, economic success without labour rights does not create a middle class.
Jaysus. Who would pay to live in this Former First World Country, the frozen tax slave camp??
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2023/02/04/they-paid-top-dollar-for-pre-construction-homes-at-the-market-peak-now-their-builder-is-selling-the-same-models-for-far-less.html
They paid top dollar for pre-construction homes at the market peak. Now their builder is selling the same models for far less.
Dozens of buyers who thought they were buying their dream homes in two Oakville housing projects early last year when the real estate market was still riding high, say they never expected home values would fall so low or that interest rates would rise so fast.
…
“We are in the soup,” says Brampton lawyer Ajit Soroha, who, with his wife, purchased two homes for their family in Mattamy’s Preserve West development last February. The houses cost $2.46 million each and they have paid about $800,000 in deposits for the two.
Now Soroha is wondering about walking away from that money but, like other buyers, fears the company will sue him if he doesn’t live up to the agreement to purchase.
#100 kommykim on 02.03.23 at 11:15 pm
RE: #46 Faron on 02.03.23 at 5:04 pm
#34 Elon Fanboy on 02.03.23 at 4:29 pm
Well said. Exactly correct.
WWII was (ostensibly) fought to preserve freedom in “the west”. Sexual and gender expression are part and parcel of that freedom. The right wing’s efforts to curtail those freedoms, to control literature, to suppress writing about black history, to overturn fair and free elections and to raise hurdles in front of people attempting to legally vote are all early elements of a fascist wave among numerous others.
No, Crowdedelevatorfartz, this isn’t slapping a label on, there is abundant and profound evidence.
I think that the Chinese balloon is really a Japanese ww2 fire balloon that refused to surrender.
Thanks for this. I have been wondering about the changes – this is a nice synopsis. I thought to balloon would work into the piece, and Biden cancelling his visit.
“enable[d] it to leapfrog 80 years of US history from 1925 onward within a span of 21 years.”
Wow, imagine being able to go from the wealth polarization of the pre-Roosevelt era to the wealth polarization of just after the Great Financial Crisis without having to suffer through the New Deal, establishment of civil rights and the Great Society and eighty years of reasonably good prospects for the not-already-rich.
#10 Looking?
“One of the major things that China lacks is immigration of talented people with new ideas. Canada and the US are able to attract scientists…”
Duh! Those STEM educated immigrants are often Chinese, and so can just repatriate after they’re finished school here; our folks do not pursue STEM education.
BREAKING NEWS
The Biden administration is considering a plan to shoot down a large Chinese balloon suspected of conducting surveillance on U.S. military. Biden said: “We’re going to take care of it.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancels China visit.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/u-s-considering-plan-to-down-chinese-balloon-over-atlantic-1.6260109
Russia is watching closely, wringing its hands in glee for the distraction.
Probability of nuclear engagement in the next 48 hours is now 95%.
PREPARE
#23 PeterfromCalgary on 02.04.23 at 1:10 pm
They really made a big mistake with that one child policy.
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It was in place for 35 years, which was probably at least a decade too long.
—Doug
A single legged stool is inherently unstable. China will never realize its full potential until the current megalomaniac-in-charge and the corrupt CCP are removed and Chinese people regain the freedom to make their own economic and social decisions.
China has a few moves they could make, but would require the CCP to loosen their authoritarian grip, so won’t happen until a crisis is imminent. May even invade Taiwan as a distraction to kick the can down the road.
Reduce internal barriers to free movement of people to meet labor needs, reform their low productivity/low mechanization agricultural sector. Oh yeah, and stop repressing non-Han minorities and locking them up in massive prisons. That would be good.
#19 Shawn
Your take is hopium on dope.
How far from your house have you traveled?
World’s top banks pumped $742 bln into fossil fuels in 2021 – report
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/worlds-top-banks-pumped-742-bln-into-fossil-fuels-2021-report-2022-03-30/
Wonder why?
NO, world will not be turned off taps in 10 years. That is a pipe dream.
I will not buy an elv until every corner gas station is converted to a charging station and full charge time is 5 min.
Those who bought these ev’s have already paid through theire noses by as much as 25%. Suck it up.
I am looking at 2022 Cadillac Escalade Sport $144,000 + tax . All gas, please, I like to drive long haul across Canada.
Despite an aging population & a consistently low birth rate, the fact remains that even if China’s population does drop to ‘only’ 0.77 billion by 2100, that is still more than enough bodies to keep the engine running. As for the recent 1 million drop in overall population, given the increase in mortality due to Covid not a big surprise. While China has limited it’s official Covid death count to only those cases where the patient dies of respiratory failure due to Covid – hence the absurdly low official records – the fact remains that many people have died ‘with’ Covid. Estimates vary, but at this point it is quite possible that as many as 2 or even 3 million Chinese have died ‘with’ Covid rather than ‘from’ Covid since the pandemic began.
#27 AnonyMusk on 02.04.23 at 12:49 pm
mean wealth
—
…is a meaningless statistic. Bit embarrassing for you and Doug unless your failure to use a median statistic was intentional.
Canada’s median individual wealth is almost triple that of America’s.
Oblio on 02.04.23 at 2:01 pm
#10 Looking?
“One of the major things that China lacks is immigration of talented people with new ideas. Canada and the US are able to attract scientists…”
Duh! Those STEM educated immigrants are often Chinese, and so can just repatriate after they’re finished school here; our folks do not pursue STEM education.
______________________
Some Chinese come to Canada/US to get educated sure. Many stay, some go back. So what? China does not attract talent from India, Europe, US, Australia etc. etc. etc.
Amigo, there’s a whole world of talent out there besides Chinese
#27 AnonyMusk on 02.04.23 at 12:49 pm
I notice on the chart showing mean wealth per adult that Americans are much wealthier than Canadians.
Just the other day a couple of people were claiming otherwise.
Another example of what a mistake it is to let your political opinions overrule reality.
———————
That chart is open to a lot of questions. (like most charts of that kind)
Usually, Switzerland is quite high in that category.
You’d think Credit Suise would realize that).
Also, UK and France before Germany?
Well, it says “select” countries.
So, I just leave it there.
But more information is needed.
That’s for sure.
China’s Oil consumption will now skyrocket
Russia Oil is off Nato and seeking new markets
OPEC might cut production again
Is Oil prices going to go way up? So will inflation?
15:Greta Fool: The expansion of plublic transportation is not required, and would be a waste of funds. In the next 5 years, we will start to see a disruptive change in transportation. Artificial Intellegent (AI) guided electric vehicles ( powered by renewable energy( buffered with utility sized batteries)), will provide driverless taxis service ( Transportation as a Service). A person would hail a taxis via phone, it would arrive and take you where you wanted to go. You would pay the fee via your phone. The taxis would then go to the next closest place being hailed. Parking lots become obsolete. Robotaxis systems could be/ will be cheaper than buses, and could eventually transport bulk goods cheaper and faster than rail. This reality will be embraced not because it is “Green”, but because it will be so much cheaper to sustain ( Wrights Law of cost declines). This will happen, and it will be a lot quicker than most realize . For Example, In New York City in 1900, there was less than 10% adoption rate of automobiles to horses. It only took about 10 years to reverse the ratio. If you want to be on the right side of change, think about this.
SHOT:
#107 Old Boot on 02.04.23 at 8:32 am
I feel pretty confident saying that no one’s ancestors fought in WWII so that men could run around in womanface, use women’s washrooms, ruin women’s sports, or wear enormous prosthetic breasts in front of school children.
Anyone claiming differently is an idiot.
CHASER:
#31 Faron on 02.04.23 at 1:39 pm
#100 kommykim on 02.03.23 at 11:15 pm
RE: #46 Faron on 02.03.23 at 5:04 pm
#34 Elon Fanboy on 02.03.23 at 4:29 pm
Well said. Exactly correct.
WWII was (ostensibly) fought to preserve freedom in “the west”. Sexual and gender expression are part and parcel of that freedom. The right wing’s efforts to curtail those freedoms, to control literature, to suppress writing about black history, to overturn fair and free elections and to raise hurdles in front of people attempting to legally vote are all early elements of a fascist wave among numerous others.
No, Crowdedelevatorfartz, this isn’t slapping a label on, there is abundant and profound evidence.
**************
WWII was fought to preserve the Allies’ geopolitical status quo, which most certainly did not include the not-yet-extant concept of ‘gender expression’, or the right to practice your fetishes in public.
I’d wager that if present-day Faron teleported back in time to inform those Allied forces that their sacrifice would ensure that unevidenced, ahistorical, neomarxist ideologies could flourish, we’d all be enthusiastically goose-stepping about and speaking German right now.
I anxiously await another cringe-inducing screed glorifying all the demisexual catboi paratroopers who, despite being unable to live in their true gender, still bravely fought the fascist hordes with their sweetheart’s underwear carefully sewn into the lining of their flightsuits.
Blow that commie balloon sky high..kaboom
#46 4 out of 3 people find math hard on 02.04.23 at 2:50 pm
15:Greta Fool: The expansion of plublic transportation is not required, and would be a waste of funds. In the next 5 years, we will start to see a disruptive change in transportation. Artificial Intellegent (AI) guided electric vehicles ( powered by renewable energy( buffered with utility sized batteries)), will provide driverless taxis service ( Transportation as a Service). A person would hail a taxis via phone, it would arrive and take you where you wanted to go. You would pay the fee via your phone. The taxis would then go to the next closest place being hailed. Parking lots become obsolete. Robotaxis systems could be/ will be cheaper than buses, and could eventually transport bulk goods cheaper and faster than rail. This reality will be embraced not because it is “Green”, but because it will be so much cheaper to sustain ( Wrights Law of cost declines). This will happen, and it will be a lot quicker than most realize . For Example, In New York City in 1900, there was less than 10% adoption rate of automobiles to horses. It only took about 10 years to reverse the ratio. If you want to be on the right side of change, think about this.
—————-
You just don’t get it.
If they are driven by robots or by the invisible man.
They still will need to build and maintain the massive infrastructure needed to move single people around.
And still cause backlogs.
And will not be cheaper. Don’t kid yourself.
Mass transit is the only solution.
San Diego gets it.
Just hope that the Koch Brothers don’t butt in again and fund a massive anti transit campaign.
As they did in other progressive American cities.
I lived in Vienna, for 7 years.
Never needed a car.
Until I came to Vancouver.
42 Faron
“Canada’s median individual wealth is almost triple that of America’s.”
Not according to the 2022 wealth report. About $150k
for Canada, $90k for USA. Interesting to compare how countries rank in each case though.
https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html
. The Financial Times reports that “six wallet” has now become the home-affordability catchphrase in China. In other words, couples have to tap their own two wallets as well as those of all four of their parents to purchase a home.
…….
Similar to here.Young couples cannot afford without help
In real terms:
China has the largest economy in the world after the EU.
US is third.
The net worth chart is utter BS and you know it.
Getting in debt in order to justify high asses valuations is not a sign of wealth.
‘The higher the debt – the wealthier you are’ is nonsense.
Canadians are richer than Germans and Japanese?
Who really believes that BS even for second?
———————————–
China like every developed country has lower birth rates.
Counting China as developing country and Canada as developed/G7 is utter BS/ nonsense.
——————-
Erdogan recently stated about the west: Don’t tell me that we are in economic crisis as there is not single hungry man in Turkey which is true/witnessed firsthand.
In Canada 20 % of the kids for go school hungry.
https://globalnews.ca/news/8942618/child-hunger-canada-inflation-food-price/
https://proof.utoronto.ca/food-insecurity/how-many-canadians-are-affected-by-household-food-insecurity/
—————————-
As for investing in China – I sincerely hope that they slow down their growth.
Or else we are doomed.
Are these [email protected] working in IT? They don’t seem to understand peak complexity means peak fragility??
Or they are just paid trolls like Chatbot Gpt?
Enterprise Architect working in the Matrix.
Matrix is failing BADLY, I am enjoying it immensely btw
#42 Faron on 02.04.23 at 2:33 pm
Another one joins the chorus of the emotionally biased.
USA GDP per capita is consistently much higher (35%) than Canada’s.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD
Let’s hear your rational explanation for how that has made Canadians more wealthy than Americans over the past 200 years.
For anyone interested in reality and not fantasy, take a trip to Roche Harbor and check out the yachts and then zip across to any marina in BC and see if you can see the difference.
You’ll probably notice that if there are any similar yachts in BC they are American owned.
This is the loser I am talking about.
4 out of 3 people find math hard on 02.04.23 at 2:50 pm
Yogism #41: “Once inflation occurs, it balloons from coast to coast without stop”.
The future of China is already seen in the typical Western household. Have a look at what you own, and add up the dollars.
In my case:
Made in China…
Toaster
Blow drier
Cheese grater
Travel mug
Lamp
Can opener
Wifi speaker
Lots of other cheap stuff
Made elsewhere…
Pickup truck #1 – USA
Pickup truck #2 – USA
Zero-Turn Mower – USA
Weed whacker – Germany
Tiller/Power rake – Germany
Chainsaw – Germany
Car – Japan
ATV #1 – Japan
ATV #2 – Japan
Motorcycle- Japan
Bulldozer – USA
TV – Japan
Welder – USA
Pellet Stove – USA
Power tools – USA + Germany
Hammer Mill – Canada
Various yard tools – Finland
When folks start spending more than a couple hundred bucks, they start caring about reputation and quality. China needs to move up the supply chain if they ever hope to escape the second world.
Doug…. China is questionable on point 2) innovation as its main strength is manufacturing
******
Are you sure ????
See here —> https://www.statista.com/statistics/257152/ranking-of-the-20-countries-with-the-most-patent-grants/#:~:text=In%202021%2C%20China%20had%20the,granted%20patents%20the%20same%20year.
China = 695946
next USA = 327307
Do you feel differences?
#43 Looking Up on 02.04.23 at 2:37 pm
…China does not attract talent from India, Europe, US, Australia etc. etc. etc.
Amigo, there’s a whole world of talent out there besides Chinese
—————-
That’s what my Dentist likes to say. “The best and brightest flow to the West”. A globalized future, and aging demographics will put a lot of strain on the East. The West already has a massive head start on all fronts, and in the future the West will consolidate power and act as one. We can see this already happening with the Russian/Ukrainian conflict.
China has some tough decisions coming…
At least China built 3-D Potemkin cities, unlike Stalins cheapo 2-D versions
Until Chinas doesn’t….bada bing..bada BOOooOoooM
‘Build, pause, demolish, repeat’: China to demolish buildings that could accommodate 75 million people
https://www.wionews.com/economy/build-pause-demolish-repeat-china-to-demolish-buildings-that-could-accommodate-75-million-people-515567
I guess President Xi should hire Sean Fraser to deal with the population decline, and China will be destroyed in less than a decade.
I got my real estate assessment. It was 20% higher than last year and I got upset. Are the bureaucrats trying to screw me? They tax and fine the people who can pay. I checked out the Calgary City of tax assessments and saw everyone was in the same position, so I expect a few more hundred dollars to pay. God love their ways and deliver less (sarc).
My eldest daughter worked hard. She does like the finer things in life. She shares. I got a kick of how many times she was hauled out to a detention room when she returned to the States from a vacation.
She never changed her name when she got married. Meanwhile, I search for good companies. I have been pretty good at finding them but not an absolute. I have losses but I am not afraid.
#49 ‘Ponzius’ – while it may not be a fair comparison, since distances between Canadian cities is much greater than Europe i hear you on the public transportation. Trains in particular. Spent a month in Europe back in 2008 & travelled everywhere by train or bus. Hardest part about returning to Canada wasn’t having to go back to work, but having to resume pitiful Canadian transit service after being spoiled by transit in Europe. I’d add that while one can excuse not having regular transit between cities in Canada due to the distances involved, there is actually no excuse for the poor quality of transit services within our major cities. If a train or bus was a minute late, apologies & explanations would flow over the European transit service signs/speakers. Here in Canada? Just be grateful that another bus/train eventually shows up – hopefully before hypothermia sets in.
@#47 Old Boot
“WWII was fought to preserve the Allies’ geopolitical status quo, which most certainly did not include the not-yet-extant concept of ‘gender expression’, or the right to practice your fetishes in public.”
+++
Soooo.
In you version of historical events.
WWII was the Allies fault.
Gotcha.
Who knew.
I guess Hitler’s attempt at world domination doesnt factor anywhere into the equation.
And I thought Ostriches heads in the sand were a bizarre form of self defense.
Whats next?
Stalin was misunderstood?
Mao was a really nice guy deep down?
Telling people how they must speak and think is fascist.
Unfortunately .
The politically correct and Woke just dont seem to grasp the ramifications of their Orwellian “thoughtspeak.”.
Electric Vehicles – Actual Experience
#40 Don on 02.04.23 at 2:28 pm
#19 Shawn
Your take is hopium on dope.
How far from your house have you traveled?
World’s top banks pumped $742 bln into fossil fuels in 2021 – report
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/worlds-top-banks-pumped-742-bln-into-fossil-fuels-2021-report-2022-03-30/
Wonder why?
NO, world will not be turned off taps in 10 years. That is a pipe dream.
I will not buy an elv until every corner gas station is converted to a charging station and full charge time is 5 min.
******************************
Don, I never said oil and gas are gone anytime soon. I disputed that “we” can’t build enough charging stations for a big roll-out of EVs.
I have had a Tesla since early June. I took only two road trips so far and charged up at the Tesla Superchargers in Red Deer and then my Hotel in Canmore had a free charger. But you are right, road trips are still problematic. They require planning and take longer in an EV.
But more than 95% of my driving is local and I charge at home. I have no need of a local gas station charger.
Ultimately a lot of local gas stations will close or become convenience stores only. Most EV charging will be at home.
Highway rest stops will be huge with multiple fast chargers and food offerings. The stop will likely be at least 15 minutes maybe longer. Plan for 30 minutes.
Look around, the tipping point has been reached. EVs are coming on strong.
So you will be a late adopter of EVs. Who cares? But why the need to insult my views which are based on actual experience and knowledge?
#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.23 at 2:39 pm
#27 AnonyMusk on 02.04.23 at 12:49 pm
I notice on the chart showing mean wealth per adult that Americans are much wealthier than Canadians.
Just the other day a couple of people were claiming otherwise.
Another example of what a mistake it is to let your political opinions overrule reality.
———————
That chart is open to a lot of questions. (like most charts of that kind)
Usually, Switzerland is quite high in that category.
You’d think Credit Suise would realize that).
—-
Credit Suisse did realize that. Switzerland is #1. I selected the countries.
—Doug
#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.23 at 5:19 pm
@#47 Old Boot
“WWII was fought to preserve the Allies’ geopolitical status quo, which most certainly did not include the not-yet-extant concept of ‘gender expression’, or the right to practice your fetishes in public.”
+++
Soooo.
In you version of historical events.
WWII was the Allies fault.
Gotcha.
Who knew.
I guess Hitler’s attempt at world domination doesnt factor anywhere into the equation.
And I thought Ostriches heads in the sand were a bizarre form of self defense.
Whats next?
Stalin was misunderstood?
Mao was a really nice guy deep down?
Telling people how they must speak and think is fascist.
Unfortunately .
The politically correct and Woke just dont seem to grasp the ramifications of their Orwellian “thoughtspeak.”.
*******
Slap yourself. You’re hysterical.
Does wealth take into account the homes quote owned in China are leasehold?
Electric Vehicles – Actual Experience
#40 Don on 02.04.23 at 2:28 pm
#19 Shawn
—————
Charging stations are rolling out fast and furious, and even if they weren’t, everybody’s home is an EV charging station- so, in reality, there are already several hundred million charging stations in N America.
One EV and one gas vehicle works for us. We definitely choose the EV preferentially for anything involving paved roads.
#64 crowdedelevatorfartz “The politically correct and Woke just dont seem to grasp the ramifications of their Orwellian “thoughtspeak.”.”
——-
I think they’re getting a pretty good idea now.
Can we get any more absurd?
Is a ‘Trans’ double rapist really Trans or are they just ‘faking’ it to get put in a woman’s prison.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-64501436
Hilarious watching Nicola Sturgeon trying to explain her view on this, and wether this person is a women or not.
Everyone is playing the Emperor’s new clothes.
I imagine if my wartime ancestral relatives were alive to witness this they’d say society has gone stark raving bonkers.
China’s best days are likely in the rearview
________________________________
Doug,
Your prognostication is already one decade late!!! Plus, it’s not bold enough!!!
Please review the following book and weep!
“The coming collapse of China”, by Gordon Chang, 2012
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming_Collapse_of_China
WW1 and WW2….
Were..as the saying goes..based on
“ALL WARS ARE BANKER WARS”
Germany’s many cantons were amalgamated in the late 1800’s(BC has been a Province of Canada before Germany was created)
Germany, moreso under Industrial Revolution, began to challenge Britain and USA for price and quality on goods…BAD MISTAKE. Germany had to go.
Archduke of Austria was assassinated..in order to ignite WW1 because Germany and Austria wanted to use the Yugoslavia corridor to access the Baku oil fields.
Germany won WW1..THE END…
…..not one enemy soldier set foot on German lands…Treaty Of Versailles involved a lot of treachery that set up WW2 given Germany turned into the decadent and hyperinflation Weimar Republic and had to pay massive reparations. The Danzig corridor was set up to fuel WW2.
No sooner did Germany and Japan surrender, and WW2 end… than old Allies buddy Uncle Joe Stalin went Full Bore Communist,locked up many eastern European countries behind the Iron Curtain…. followed by Mao and China a few years later.
Both Stalin and Mao murdered millions of THEIR OWN citizens post WW2. Is this why Allies went to war?
How many people know Bolshevik terrorist Leon Trotsky was sponsored by NYC Bankers and was intercepted by Canada but they were forced to release him ? How would history have changed, and millions not needlessly die???… if Canada had kept this one KEY terrorist?
I am somewhat shocked that people don’t realize that WW1 and WW2 were a disaster for Western Civilization, the aim was to put much of it under the yoke of Communism after WW2…while the rest of the “free” West is currently suffering the cancer of Cultural Marxism which has been slowly but surely putting us ALL under Communism.
This is simply a long term plan set loonnggg ago if you dare to engage in proper research.
Unlike our weather balloon, this post is full of hot air.
Things in China are going according to plan, as always.
Trans people are the new boogie man. First it was black people, but that’s harder to defend now. Then it was gay people, same thing. Transphobia is just an easy gateway for right wing radicals to get people on their side. They need a boogie man, and the lack of empathy towards trans people combined with general ignorance makes them a really easy group to target.
#50 Dr V on 02.04.23 at 3:47 pm
42 Faron
Not according to the 2022 wealth report. About $150k for Canada, $90k for USA
—
I say different, higher numbers, but from two separate sources. So, okay, I’ll take your numbers.
My point is as solid as ever — Canadian’s are wealthier than US of Americans.
#54 AnonyMusk on 02.04.23 at 3:55 pm
Oh wow. Per capita is an averaging process! What matters is median if you are talking about the people walking the city around you. You have stumbled into wealth inequality and are eating crow because of it.
But, I’ll lay it out for you.
To make it easy for us, let’s say there are 10 people in Canada and 10 in the US. Lets say that both countries produce nothing but apples. That’s it. Apples. The number of apples you produce will correspond to your wealth. Simpol.
Last year, Canada produced 1000 apples and the US produced 1500. That’s 100 apples per capita of production for Canada and 150 for the US. If we assume that each gets the same price and has the same cost of doing business, then the per capita wealth generated by this business is 50% greater in the US than Canada. By your notion, the average American is wealthier. However, you could easily stroll around the US and see many more less-wealthy people than you see in Canada.
Here’s how. Let’s say that in Canada the production is more evenly spread over the populace. One woman hits it out of the park and produces 190 apples and the rest produce 90. The median apple production is 90 Apples even though the per capita rate is 100. Now, in the US, let’s say four people dominate and produce 300 apples each and the remaining 6 people produce 50 apples each. The median production for the US is 50! This is about the ratio that we see in Dr V’s numbers above even though the US’s per capita GDP is higher.
In the Canada case, more people have more wealth than in the US even though a few people in the US are exceptionally wealthy.
I’m sorry Anon, you are the one falling to messaging aimed at persuading you that free market non-sense benefits the typical middle income person. It doesn’t. Not by a long shot. And, what you are doing (or being subject to assuming you don’t think for yourself very well) is gaslighting. This fiction must die.
Also, inform yourself on robust and resilient statistics. Tukey is a very good start.
#49 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.23 at 3:14 pm
#46 4 out of 3 people find math hard on 02.04.23 at 2:50
You just don’t get it.
If they are driven by robots or by the invisible man.
They still will need to build and maintain the massive infrastructure needed to move single people around.
And still cause backlogs.
And will not be cheaper. Don’t kid yourself.
Mass transit is the only solution.
San Diego gets it.
Just hope that the Koch Brothers don’t butt in again and fund a massive anti transit campaign.
As they did in other progressive American cities.
I lived in Vienna, for 7 years.
Never needed a car.
Until I came to Vancouver.
oooooooooooooooooo
Yup, he doesn’t get it. I don’t feel like writing a long comment here, but at this point I don’t even believe we’ll get car automation. I used to believe it, then I learned about GPS accuracy, margin of error, at speed, in buildings, variability of road, rain making blacked out lines look like they exist confusion humans as to where the lane is, never mind cameras, snow, covered curbs, city adding obstacles, etc. etc. etc. I do not believe there will be car automation unless there is something installed in the road, like an invisible rail.
As for what you note, absolutely. North America is a total disaster zone when it comes to public transit efforts. Nothing but excuses. While other counties make it happen, we get garbage trains, subways, light rail, etc.
How come Paris can do it. Oh sure, metro is crowded, but I have yet to have a bad experience on it beside it being busy at some time. Same on RAR or TGV. And Japan?
What about Amsterdam? The bike culture and respect that exist there is a dream. What do we get? Bike rider hurting Bloor bike lanes? We’re certainly not Third World, but our transit in this country is easily Second World, with certain city exceptions. San Diego yes, Montreal, New York?
#69 Sail Away on 02.04.23 at 6:17 pm
Electric Vehicles – Actual Experience
#40 Don on 02.04.23 at 2:28 pm
#19 Shawn
—————
Charging stations are rolling out fast and furious, and even if they weren’t, everybody’s home is an EV charging station- so, in reality, there are already several hundred million charging stations in N America.
One EV and one gas vehicle works for us. We definitely choose the EV preferentially for anything involving paved roads.
——————–
It’s not the number of charging station that’s critical.
It’s the supply of electricity.
Now heat pumps are becoming the thing.
Running also on electricity.
The neighbor had to have one.
15 k.
Time to install pedals on your TESLA
Like Fred Flintstone.
The Irony.
Time
Snipped from yesterday’s Globe and Mail:
More than 40 per cent of condos in Ontario are investment properties, with investor ownership in excess of 80 per cent in smaller metropolitan areas such as London, Sarnia and Woodstock.
The numbers come from a new report by the Canadian Housing Statistics Program (CHSP), which shows for the first time the extent of investors’ reach in the country’s largest real estate market, as well as in B.C. and three other provinces.
#48 The joy of steerage
Shooting the balloon.
They got what they wanted. They shot it over the Atlantic!!!
Closing the barn door, after the horse has left.lol!!!!
What else the Americans good at?
#46
Do you know how much one rail car of potash weighs? Wheat? Tanker car of propane? Our Canadian commodities will never be transported by “ robo taxi”.
Nice try though. And by pretending you are not pushing an aggressive green agenda is dishonest at best.
#69 Sail Away on 02.04.23 at 6:17 pm
Electric Vehicles – Actual Experience
… in reality, there are already several hundred million charging stations in N America.
***********
Listen, you can’t lie like that. It would have been in the newspaper in the era before the Internet, but not now!
There are currently more than 56,000 EV charging stations with about 148,000 charging ports across the country.
https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-are-there-in-the-us/#:~:text=There%20are%20approximately%2030%20different,maintain%20EV%20stations%20for%20customers.
and Tesla
How Many Tesla EV Charging Stations Are In the U.S.?
As of summer 2022, Tesla had more than 1,400 Supercharger stations in the United States, with a total of more than 7,000 chargers.
https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/advice/tesla-supercharger-guide#:~:text=How%20Many%20Tesla%20EV%20Charging,of%20more%20than%207%2C000%20chargers.
We could be putting our investment dollars into business/industry/ natural resources and producing things that the rest of the world needs or wants and creating Canadian jobs while building and growing a diversified economy. But nooooooo. We flip/sell/rent real estate to each other and to the 300k new arrivals each year who all need a place to sleep. Helluva strategy.
#47 Old Boot on 02.04.23 at 3:01 pm
WWII was fought to preserve the Allies’ geopolitical status quo, which most certainly did not include the not-yet-extant concept of ‘gender expression’, or the right to practice your fetishes in public.
—
Semi-agreement for item 1 w/re geopolitical status quo. Wars are never what the popular media makes them out to be and certainly not what the victor’s history books document. That said, I am thankful for the sacrifices of those who fought to win the war for the allies.
Your other points are incorrect. Vastly so. Wikipedia tells me that the terms arose in the 1950s, not the concepts. Anyone paying any attention knows the concepts are thousands of years old and span a large number of cultures and cultural practices.
Public fetishes? Last I checked Catholic Mass was and remains something performed in a venue open to the public. Occasionally, the pope will go on tour and wave around smoke bombs and wear a funny hat. Catholicism, like many christian sects, is rife with fetishism adopted from the religions that preceded it. Fetishism is a part of humanity even if it’s a kind of fetishism that you do not like.
The attempt to use the, shall we say, fetishized stories of WWII and it’s fighters to snapshot-in-time some justification for a culture war that is being needlessly waged 70 years hence is sheer insanity. Even a rank novice like me can see that.
#72 Alois on 02.04.23 at 6:22 pm
…WW1 and WW2…
…“ALL WARS ARE BANKER WARS”…
…NYC Bankers…
…Cultural Marxism…
…proper research…
—
Oh boy.
#70 Elon Fanboy on 02.04.23 at 6:18 pm
I imagine if my wartime ancestral relatives were alive to witness this they’d say society has gone stark raving bonkers
—
I dunno, probably a bad idea to put thoughts into the minds of your ancestors however convenient that is for your narrative.
I can confidently say that if I were to travel back in time to witness a society that tossed first nations kids into lethal residential schools or, in my home country, that prevented women from voting until after WWI and actively segregated the population until the late 1960s, I would think that society was stark raving bonkers.
But, yeah, you should get worked up because today someone prefers to harmlessly be called they/them (I mean, seriously, how does that even bother anyone?) or prefers to dress outside of some kind of recent, local and arbitrary cultural norm. Heaven forbid. You totally aren’t being manipulated to fear things that distract you from real societal problems!
@#72 Alois
“This is simply a long term plan set loonnggg ago if you dare to engage in proper research.”
+++
I prefer to use my tinfoil to cook food in the oven as opposed to cooking my brain as a hat.
RE: China will very shortly lose its status as the world’s most populous country
=======================================
Do people still believe that we can have infinite population growth in a world with limited/finite resources?
It has to end eventually, and I for one prefer it to end before everything goes in the crapper. So this is good news to me.
China is questionable on point 2)
________________________
LOOK, in the ultimate high tech battleground, how U.S (the West) is beating up China left and right! Please read the below article and rejoice:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/China-trounces-U.S.-in-AI-research-output-and-quality
___________________________
For the few who are interested in the war for the bragging rights of the toy tech between the U.S (the West) and China, please spend a few minutes watching how NASA chief Bill Nelson is gloating with the superiority of NASA’s moon landing technology over China’s. Have a few pop corn ready, sit down and enjoy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usxs3lii-xw
Those graphs & projections & summations of China in a macro historical future context are all gobbledygook. Stick with Canada for now. Thats what the Chinese are doing. Buying Canadian. They’ll pay (for non derivative quality pieces of Canada). And they pay in cash. The Chinese have unestimateable liquidity. But you guys back east will find out soon enough. The tsunami of cash heading your way will lift all boats. But only temporary. Those big LNG plants in Kitimat are basically lego sets manufactured in China. Once they get stuck together the Chinese will be getting cheap gas for decades. The water will recede & lift all boats in Asia. Just like all the other natural resources we export. We are transferring from vassal state of the U.S. Empire to vassal state of the Chinese Empire. China is the emerging primary hegemony state & all wealth flows to the Emperor.
The population needs to decline to atleast 1970s level so that people can enjoy a decent standard of living. Do we all need to live in a polluted dump with 2 hour commutes, extreme competition for jobs where people would need a Masters or PhD for a job at Tim Hortons or wages not even covering the rent. This would all happen if population continues to grow.
#70 Elon Fanboy on 02.04.23 at 6:18 pm
#64 crowdedelevatorfartz “The politically correct and Woke just dont seem to grasp the ramifications of their Orwellian “thoughtspeak.”.”
——-
I think they’re getting a pretty good idea now.
Can we get any more absurd?
Is a ‘Trans’ double rapist really Trans or are they just ‘faking’ it to get put in a woman’s prison.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-64501436
Hilarious watching Nicola Sturgeon trying to explain her view on this, and wether this person is a women or not.
Everyone is playing the Emperor’s new clothes.
I imagine if my wartime ancestral relatives were alive to witness this they’d say society has gone stark raving bonkers.
********
Yes, our social and intellectual betters will actually argue that some men who pretend to be women are really women, but also that other men who pretend to be women aren’t women. “No true Scotsman” covers this nicely.
No man is never any kind of woman. A man can’t ‘feel like a woman trapped in a man’s body’, because our brains and bodies are a package deal. If your immutably sexed body is male, your brain is male, your thoughts are male, and your propensity for violence is male.
Yet Canada has been putting men in women’s prisons since 2017, thanks to Trudeau’s personal intervention.
88% of incarcerated men seeking transfer to women’s prisons in Canada have one or more convictions for sexual offenses or violence against women and children.
A majority of them (54% iirc)are dangerous offenders serving indeterminate sentences.
As it currently stands in Canada, men can enter any women’s space, sport, shelter, washroom, award competition, grant program, scholarship, dorm, dating app, etc. simply by claiming they feel like a woman inside. No surgery, no hormones, no problem.
Trans ideology is a men’s rights group for incels with personality disorders and fetishes. Google “Trans maxxing”, if you dare.
Unfortunately it’s being fed to children in school, where proto gay, gender non-conforming children, (many of whom are also autistic) are told they may be in the wrong body because they don’t adhere to gendered stereotypes.
Remeber: the guy who invented the lobotomy was awarded the Nobel Prize before people woke tf up.
Transing children will be a medical negligence scandal of epic proportions.
We lesbians have been screaming ourselves hoarse about this for decades, but I guess our voices are just too shrill to be audible to the human ear.
I hear they are exporting balloons now.
#19 Shawn on 02.04.23 at 11:35 am
Home chargers are quick and easy to install. But costly. Mine was over $4000.
=======================================
The chargers are ridiculously overpriced considering that the conversion of AC to DC, charger regulation, etc, is all done by the EV. The box does virtually nothing and the most expensive thing about it is the heavy wire that goes from the box to the car.
https://youtu.be/RMxB7zA-e4Y
@#84 faron faron
“But, yeah, you should get worked up because today someone prefers to harmlessly be called they/them (I mean, seriously, how does that even bother anyone?”
+++
If I identify as they/them ….can I vote twice in the next election?
“ Several things can support a country’s long-term economic, and hence, equity-market growth. …
#5. Reduced population = reduced internal consumer demand. The economy within China declines.
#74 Observer on 02.04.23 at 6:36 pm
Trans people are the new boogie man. First it was black people, but that’s harder to defend now. Then it was gay people, same thing. Transphobia is just an easy gateway for right wing radicals to get people on their side. They need a boogie man, and the lack of empathy towards trans people combined with general ignorance makes them a really easy group to target.
—
Yup. Target… and harass, assault and murder. And all of this happens in the claustrophobic sphere of a late 20th and early 21st century judeo-christian belief system. TERFs and their echo chamber are providing a nice alliance with the neo-fascist right — fascism being a blind ideology that accepts anyone who is willing to hate and repress any of their target groups even if the accepted are one of those groups. TERFs will be turfed as soon as goals are accomplished.
Today is National Cancer Day
25% of Canadian cancer patients have had their cancer treatment postponed.
Geez, after looking at some of these comments, I now understand why the groundhog decided to go back to his den for the next six weeks…
M48BC
78 Yukon – I’ve seen the 40% stated before, with always the implication that it was “bad”. I’m not so sure.
We’ve also seen the “owner occupied” ratio of near 70%
for Canada as a whole. This too was thought to be “bad” as the argument was made that this was higher than the
historical average and could constrict labour mobility. I believe this premise could be valid.
Lowering the owner occupied ratio a few percent gets us close to a 40% rental ratio – ie 40% of units are owned
by “investors”. This ratio is higher in Canada’s 3 largest
metros.
So the real issue is something different. If many of these investors are newbies who borrowed heavily then
yes, a serious problem could result. Also, if the unit was
only bought to “flip” to a greater fool and never meant as a rental then this too is a problem, though you would think a “specuvestor” would soon realize this and rent the unit out.
And there could be small number who intended to live in the condo for the work week and spend the weekends in bunnypatch at their new home or soon-to-be retirement abode.
Sounds crazy for those smaller centres though.
I dont subscribe to the G&M but I may be due a free article if you could post the link. Thanks.
Big change in opinion at the office of Turner Investments, good. The only difference that matters between Japan and China is Japan is in the US friends and family program (the only one that matters) and China isn’t. The retaliation for the idiotic balloon will be crushing.
The West neglects China enthusiasm and openess to new and unique Western society and culture. For centuries, Chinese immigrants head off to the middle east; America; Australia; Africa and South America to dig in and forge their financial and familial success. Face it, the Chinese love the West and the last thing they would embrace would be a Russia straight out of Stalin’s reign.
#83 Faron on 02.04.23 at 7:05 pm
#47 Old Boot on 02.04.23 at 3:01 pm
WWII was fought to preserve the Allies’ geopolitical status quo, which most certainly did not include the not-yet-extant concept of ‘gender expression’, or the right to practice your fetishes in public.
—
Semi-agreement for item 1 w/re geopolitical status quo. Wars are never what the popular media makes them out to be and certainly not what the victor’s history books document. That said, I am thankful for the sacrifices of those who fought to win the war for the allies.
Your other points are incorrect. Vastly so. Wikipedia tells me that the terms arose in the 1950s, not the concepts. Anyone paying any attention knows the concepts are thousands of years old and span a large number of cultures and cultural practices.
Public fetishes? Last I checked Catholic Mass was and remains something performed in a venue open to the public. Occasionally, the pope will go on tour and wave around smoke bombs and wear a funny hat. Catholicism, like many christian sects, is rife with fetishism adopted from the religions that preceded it. Fetishism is a part of humanity even if it’s a kind of fetishism that you do not like.
The attempt to use the, shall we say, fetishized stories of WWII and it’s fighters to snapshot-in-time some justification for a culture war that is being needlessly waged 70 years hence is sheer insanity. Even a rank novice like me can see that.
*****
‘Gender’ is just sex stereotypes. It’s use as a euphemism for sex roles was popularized in the 60’s by John Money, a pedophile enabler whose earliest experiment in ‘gender expression’ resulted in the eventual suicides of twin brothers.
https://www.eviemagazine.com/post/dr-john-money-father-of-gender-theory-was-a-pedophilia-apologist
Money’s theory that our sex-based behaviors are informed by societal expectations has been completely debunked.
Funny you should leap to religion in your garbled rebuttal. Sexual fetishes have nothing to do with religious idolatry, but both Catholicism and gender theory are unfalsifiable belief systems that are completely unevidenced, and rely solely on the subjective experience of the believer.
We don’t make laws based on the Apostle’s Creed. How are laws based on the subjective gender beliefs of men with fetishes any less prejudicial to unbelievers?
Catholics are free to believe in transubstantiation, but I am perfectly free to not believe in it with no repercussions. Not so with gender theory. Non-belief in gendered souls is punished with violence, rape threats, job loss, and verbal abuse.
I must pretend to believe that men can become women, and if I object to some hulking male walking around the women’s changeroom at my pool with his junk out, I will be removed and not welcome to return.
Women in prison are being given longer custodial sentences if they object to showering or bunking with a male rapist.
Finally, no culture has ever recognized self ID of one’s sex. Many patriarchal cultures have persecuted effeminate gay men and have consigned them to a third category outside those of male or female. No one claimed that these men are women, nor did they force women to get naked with them.
Effeminate gay men are still men, and have nothing to do with the exclusively heterosexual men with transvestic fetishism.
Men need to learn to be tolerant of gender non-conforming men in male spaces and quit shoving them on women. We’re not therapy animals for dysfunctional men. Lying about your sex, and forcing people to believe that lie, are not human rights.
Gender ideology has handed wokebro misogynist d-bags a golden opportunity to be socially rewarded for hating on women who object to men with sexual fetishes in our spaces. Trantifa has lots of willing recruits.
Men who claim they’re women need to back tf off and sort out their own psychological disorders and quit blaming women for having eyes in our heads and a well-earned distrust of boundary-violating men.
Stats Can says
“36% of all condos in BC are investment properties…..”
Time to start double taxing the landlords?
@#95 faron
“fascism being a blind ideology that accepts anyone who is willing to hate and repress any of their target groups even if the accepted are one of those groups.”
++++
Sounds like an accurate description of the politically correct.
Thanks.
98 Dr V on 02.04.23 at 10:04 pm
I dont subscribe to the G&M but I may be due a free article if you could post the link. Thanks.
+++++++++++
I was not able/permitted to copy a link. The article was by Rachelle Younglai, G&M, Feb.3
#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.04.23 at 6:52 pm
#69 Sail Away on 02.04.23 at 6:17 pm
Re: EV charging
—————
It’s not the number of charging station that’s critical.
It’s the supply of electricity.
—————
Electricity, like alcohol, is created magically. And magic is not bound by these surly bonds of earth.
#101 Old Boot on 02.04.23 at 10:26 pm
Pro tip: if you want to have a reasonable discussion, do not fire an opening volley quoting from a bat sht crazy, hetero-normative, q-anon laced, dis informative magazine that seems hellbent on subjugating women. WOW.
Behind the Scenes of an “Unbiased” Women’s Magazine:
Dangerous conspiracy theories, disinformation, and aggressive political bias
More on Evie:
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/evie-magazine-bias/
Extreme right views and low reliability reporting.
And, they are very anti vax:
https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjbdyb/anti-vaxxer-fertility-evie-magazine-classical-femininity
But, hey, if they say what Old Boot wants them to say, he’ll gobble it right up.
“Leapfrogging western economy in 21 years”. In reality since 1985 China has largely been given it’s bounty by the western powers. Even the slightest global lull causes China to wilt. It is not self sustaining.
Let’s take the ‘Spy Balloon’ for example. America is taking pictures of your license plate screws from space with thousands of armed satellites. China on the other hand sends a flotilla if balloons to collect intelligence of corn fields. Any serious sanctions, a month or more of stalled containers full of crap on Shanghai docks, and China collapses.
They know that. We know that. The rest is namby pamby globalist politics. We don’t need China, let’s help them realize it with a new ‘Great Wall’. Reshoring would create millions of jobs. Who says we can’t take care of ourselves first?
#90 Old Boot on 02.04.23 at 8:13 pm
Transing children will be a medical negligence scandal of epic proportions.
____________________________________
So, it is O.K. if I hold my full on Archie Bunker stance , on these kids then?
Hey Faron, how come your extreme hostility to organized religion always happens to be directed solely at “Judeo-Christian” targets? There are multiple whackjob major religions to choose from yet you always seem to fixate on that one. Hmmm.
Most people think Oregon is “Portland Progressive” but outside of the city limits it’s fullblown happy clappers and a dark history. It’s obvious something bad happened to you in your Oregon evangelical upbringing to trigger such violent outbursts of bile. Also explains the rabid embrace of all things woke and the move to the polar opposite environment of the beliefs of your formative years. And the constant rage…all makes sense.
Textbook.
#108 Humble on 02.05.23 at 3:08 am
the ‘Spy Balloon’ for example. America is taking pictures of your license plate screws from space with thousands of armed satellites. China on the other hand sends a flotilla if balloons to collect intelligence of corn fields.
__________
Common sense and everything I’ve read says China has high tech satellites monitoring constantly, just like the US. The balloon went over the US as some political message, not for the purpose of spying. Underestimating the Chinese capabilities would be a mistake.
#19 Shawn
EV’s can be charged at home overnight.
—————————————————————————————————–
1) I don’t go home overnight when I am on a two week road trip.
2) Call me when that overnight time frame for charging is reduced to about 1-3 minutes.
3) Let me know when fast charging (1-3 minutes) facilities are available to the same extent that gas stations are today.
Until then, ICE is my choice.
Everything else, at this stage in the game, is just a novelty and a gimmick.
And virtue signalling.
Just sayin’.
Cars as a service. Yes, immense capital lying around, depreciating, unproductive. Parked and waiting. How convenient. If there were only a way of unleashing the potential…. why would you even buy one. Maybe next year.
#99 Tom from Mississauga on 02.04.23 at 10:13 pm
Big change in opinion at the office of Turner Investments, good.
—-
We have a small weighting to China in our client portfolios presently and have maintained this small weighting for several years.
—Doug
@#108 Humble
“Reshoring would create millions of jobs. Who says we can’t take care of ourselves first?”
+++
While i agree that reshoring strategic industries ( microchip production, heavy industries, etc) would be a good idea for our long term viability.
The cost of a new tv or T-shirt will sky rocket.
We don’t work for $1/hr anymore.
Wage and price spiraling could drive inflation for the next few years.
The govt worker strikes in England could be a harbinger of times to come.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-set-biggest-strike-action-years-teachers-civil-servants-walk-out-2023-02-01/
Inflation is running at 10% in England and the strikers , naturally, want massive wage increases to keep up.
A classic wage/price spiral.
Gas is $179.9 in Vancouver this weekend and China’s industrial complex has barely begun moving out of Covid lockdown.
Lets see what happens to inflation when they crank back up and need fuel, food and fancy baubles again.
#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.04.23 at 7:26 pm
@#72 Alois
“This is simply a long term plan set loonnggg ago if you dare to engage in proper research.”
+++
I prefer to use my tinfoil to cook food in the oven as opposed to cooking my brain as a hat.
==========================
Gee Crowdie…you disappoint me…
Maybe GOOGLE “Balfour Declaration” and “Kalergi Plan”.
(Tin Foil hat not required)
#89 Max
Population back to 1970″
Kindly take the initiative and lead the way,, now that Euthanazsa is legal in Canada.
#110 Public Projection Whoa! on 02.05.23 at 8:04 am
You are waaaaay off.
I grew up christian lite. Through my own reading, it’s become extremely clear to me that societal norms surrounding sex and gender are firmly rooted in religion and were largely designed to protect a patriarchal power structure. Christianity happens to be the religious framework under which western right wing moral panics are formed, hence it becomes a target when discussing such a panic. Christianity certainly isn’t all bad, but it’s sometimes arbitrary morality has done a lot of damage to the non-hetero minority.
I find it very strange that Old Boot cited an article from an apparently deeply catholic, extremely hetero-normative, right wing magazine. She claims to be a homosexual she, but I can’t see how pandering to a publication that opposes their purported identity makes any sense. Furthermore, Old Boot once commented as Sold Out who was very pro COVID measures yet here he is drawing from an antivax magazine. Tres strange. Seems plausible that their claimed identity is utterly fake and strategic.
“Chinese” Spy Balloons.
Seriously….???
Couldn’t possibly be another “False Flag-ish” staged event…right ???
OMG…if Chinese could sneak a slow – moving balloon past the vaunted USA Military and NORAD etc…its game over….waive the white flag.
¨Almost 60% of personal net worth sits in a singe asset.¨
Even your typos are clever – a ¨singe¨ asset.
Definition: An asset that burns through any potential for saving and building wealth; an unrecoverable financial error; one that compromises other assets.