Well, Friday’s good news is no recession. Rejoice. Go buy your squeeze a chocolate bunny. Eat the ears first.
After all, how could the US economy turn negative when it cranked 517,000 new jobs last month with the unemployment rate down to just 3.4%? Everybody who wants to work can find a job. Even a year of aggressive interest rate hikes, the worst European war since Hitler and Adele on tour has not chilled that economy. Economists, being a delicate bunch, were shocked at the stats. “This is a labor market on heat,” said one, when asked by Bloomberg. “Nobody would have expected a number as monstrous as this!”
As goes America, so goes maple. After all, we created more than 100,000 new positions in December alone – a huge number. It’s hard to imagine our economy will now slump, start to contract and be in negative growth for at least six months – the definition of a recession. If things did turn south, the pullback would surely be, like me, short and agreeable.
The bad news? Such economic strength means the Fed may opt for another hike or two, taking its benchmark rate to 5% before pausing. Our guys at the Bank of Canada might follow. They might not. If the inflation numbers here continue to tick lower, we might score the best possible outcome. Rate stability. No wage-price spiral. No big job losses. A soft landing.
Time will tell. But it’s becoming clearer that the GreaterFool Economic Forecast for 2023 was not so crazy. A year that will end a lot better than it began. Growth, not contraction. Higher financial asset values. Portfolio plumpiness. Less inflation. Rate bumps over. So, get ready.
Now, Friday also brought the latest real estate stats from the country’s two bellweather markets, Vancouver and the GTA. Also what we expected.
Sales crashed (down 45% in Toronto and 55% in Van). Inventory levels have started to blossom (active listings up 124% in the GTA, 32% in YVR, where new listings jumped 173%). Days-on-market have basically doubled in both places. Prices are still dropping, though not as rapidly.
Here’s what the realtors in Toronto had to say:
“Home sales and selling prices appear to have found some support in recent months. This coupled with the Bank of Canada announcement that interest rate hikes are likely on hold for the foreseeable future will prompt some buyers to move off the sidelines in the coming months. Record population growth and tight labour market conditions will continue to support housing demand moving forward.”
Is there any truth to this? Or has the market become a falling knife and the 3,100 people who bought properties in January are complete idiots who, tragically, do not read this blog and will lead hideous lives as a result?
Let’s look at price.
In 416 the gold standard is a detached, single-family pile. Year/year the price of that place has dropped by 21.3% – the steepest, most rapid decline in local history. But the peak-to-now number is even more arresting. In February that house traded for $2,073,989. Now it’s down to $1,486,124. That drop of $587,865 represents a reduction of 28.3% – in eleven months. In the last major Canadian real estate bust (the early 1990s) it took six years for house prices to lose that relative amount.
In Vancouver the sales-to-active-listings ratio for detacheds is a dismal 10% (which means nine in ten houses are not finding a buyer). The average unit now sells for just over $1.8 million, down $337,900 from the peak (last April). The decline here is 16%. Also an all-time record for slippage in nine months.
Is there more to come?
Public sentiment is wretched. It’s on display daily in this pathetic site’s comments section. The negativity is boundless. It’s easy to see the flip side of greed is fear. Most people make decisions based on emotion, which leads to FOMO and intense bidding wars when assets are priced outrageously and a 50% crash in sales when stuff costs a third less. Yes, we buy high. We turtle when things are low. We either think prices will rise forever, or we believe everything’s going to zero. Neither happens.
This weekend chew on a few facts.
The recession ain’t coming. Interest rates could edge higher but this hiking cycle will soon be a memory. Everybody can find a job. House prices are way down from a year ago. More listings means more choice. It’s a buyer’s market. Conditional offers are okay again. Yes, mortgages cost 5% but that’s cheap, cheap compared to past decades. People will get used to them. And a sales slump now will probably mean a buying mood later.
Two conclusions.
First, if you truly believe prices will crash, wait to buy. But that would also mean an economic wipeout. And it’s not going to happen.
Second, if you can’t afford a home in a market that’s tanked almost 30% in a few months maybe you should give it up. Stop being angry and aggressive. A house is not the goal of life. Best to face that now.
About the picture: “Thank you for all your advice over the years,” writes Catherine, in Penticton. “Mainly because of you we don’t have too much house but we do have fully stocked, properly invested TFSAs. This is Juno, who moved in three months after the death of our 16-year-old pooch two years ago. She’s a true mystery, found by a highway and brought to the SPCA. Silent, super soft, thinks only of food and pats, she’s filled the dog-shaped void in our home very nicely.”
116 comments ↓
It takes the certainty of ignorance to lead a country down a path that makes no sense.
Trudeau wants Canada to be the Germany of North America.
“The Federal Network Agency is planning to ration the power supply to heat pumps and EV charging stations in order to protect the distribution grids from collapse. Charging times of three hours to charge electric cars will be allowed so that they can cover a distance of 50 kilometers.”
https://www.netzerowatch.com/german-electricity-to-be-rationed-as-evs-and-heat-pumps-threaten-collapse-of-local-power-grids/
The Alberta Sovereignty Act: Protecting Albertans from Federal politicians who are determined to repeat other countries spectacular failures.
Cars, Garth. CARRSS! I am dying for a post on the state of the vehicle market and what advice you have given that leases are not nearly as attractive anymore.
Oh and if the steerage section needs to realize how lucky they are, go watch “All Quiet on the Western Front”, sit down and shut up.
That US job report is not a good thing, it indicates rate increases have not materially slowed the economy. Which means more rate increases. We are just pushing the recession down the road.
Soft landing? We have barely begun the descent based on the US and CAD job reports and inflation at 3x the target rate.
Very reasonable. Thanks.
Two of the most used confused words as we try and get through these perplexed challenging home buying and selling strides in our economy, note how the media confuses these two words from time to time, sending temporary misunderstandings to investors.
Disinflation: one example would be, a drop in the rate of inflation like this is called disinflation, Powell on Wednesday called it a “gratifying” progress and one sign that the Fed’s sharp interest-rate increases are working as they should. Deflation: is when inflation is negative i.e., a decrease in the prices of goods and services in the economy, or in other words Deflation is defined as an economic condition whereby the prices of goods and services go down constantly with the inflation rate turning negative.
Home prices are very affected by the Disinflation and Deflation, both jobs and the cost of goods all fall under the category of interest rates and inflation, very noticeable among high ticket purchases.
In Canada, the last trajectory interest rate bounced all the way up to 4.5%. It sent shockwaves through 10’s of thousands of households, it may not be over yet, remember uncle Tim used the word pause not finish, they are being cautious not excited.
Real Estate is such a gamble right now, it is not in my cards to even consider until sometime in the third quarter and maybe later, closely monitoring. Do not get excited and think that a nice home will pass you by, in addition to any regular listings, there will be plenty of homes hitting the market over the coming months, not by choice but rather forced or necessity.
We know that real estate agents’ guidance, “is always “there is no time like now, “its hog wash my friends” do your own studies and make your own choices and not allow yourself to be led down the garden path, for the average agent, they only know what is happening right now, currently it is a pre-spring market and the numbers will not be great, even with the lack of home shortages and choices across the country, particularly our biggest province by population, Ontario. Wording like, “at least the forward guidance provides some clarity, allowing sidelined buyers to enter the market knowing that we are around peak rates”. Peak rates are one story, but we are in at least a six-month adjustment period, about the same amount of time it takes for the affected rates to make its way through the time interval.
Do you check the temperature of the shower before you get in, of course you do, unless you are of an unsound mind, but then again there will be some people who rush off to the emergency ward with hot water shower burns, in too much of a hurry.
There are many tens of thousands of people, that would gladly hand you over their last paperwork home buying deal in late 2021and early 2022 by walking away from a nightmare of their dream home. It would be a wish come true for them, it is not over until the old folk generation sing “Do Wah Diddy, Diddy do.” The old and experienced is your shining star of knowledge Millennials and Generation Z, we have been there, done that and learned from experience, “When you knew all the answers, now we are saying, told you so.”
On some well-known TV shows, ever notice how some stock pick advisors always squirm when their past top picks sink, even though they have seen, agreed, and prepared for the questions ahead of time, their body language speaks volumes. Those people are not in the know, they are no different from you and I. At times when seeing their past predictions, I think they just threw a dart and where it landed was their pick of the year, total investment disasters quite often I would say, but the sheep are still lined up, even when the same advisors are wrong over and over, year after year, even a two-year-old child can get it right 50% of the time, that’s fair odds when guessing up or down.
With a great investment advisor and solid ETF’s, you will be in good hands as the markets change like the weather, get paid dividents while you wait. Canada’s earning season reports get underway next week, Risk-on sectors such as technology are leading the concerns. Valuations in various segments of the market declined significantly in 2022, presenting many attractive opportunities for astute investors like you and I. All eyes are on China right now, to run high or run for the woods given also that China has thrown out its Zero Covid Policy, scary but reality. Oil might be down, but its not out, nice to keep some in your portfolio, then again who am I, to give an example of what I do, just somebody who has done OK in the past from my own views and perception.
The United States gained over half million jobs for
January versus their estimated 188,000 job gain, that’s good right? No, it is not, their unemployment stats only dropped 2/10th of one percent, hardly noticeable on the scale, if the Feds got the same results 12 months in a row, the pendulum would only move 2.4% for unemployment for the whole year, Powell said the US labour market is out of balance, you know what that means., rates go up and up again. The Americans still have a man-power shortage of 500,000 people in the leisure and hospitality business, it is a hard pill to swallow for that sector.
Quote of the day: If something on the inside is telling you that something isn’t right for you, it’s NOT right for you, no matter how great it might look on paper or a stranger’s advice, emotions are hard to control, but not impossible.
Garth- First, if you truly believe prices will crash, wait to buy. But that would also mean an economic wipeout. And it’s not going to happen.
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Sorry the one doesn’t follow the other. What is this some reverse Tony Robbins think positive or else. Me buying or not buying will not affect the market and thinking positive wont change circumstances outside of my control.
Shaming people into not waiting or they caused a market downturn is not cool.
No recession in 2023 means rates will keep rising and by 2025 will be much higher than today. Too much free out there. Have 2 or 3 kids and collect almost $2000/mth. Bring in a basic income and inflation will be 15% by 2030.
New Statistics Canada data shows investors made up almost one third of homeowners in some provinces in 2020.
The data agency says investors made up 31.5 per cent of Nova Scotia’s homeowners that year and 29 per cent of New Brunswick’s property holders.
Investors in British Columbia came in at 23.3 per cent followed by 20.4 per cent in Manitoba and 20.2 per cent in Ontario.
When grouped together, the data agency’s calculations show under one in five homes in British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia was considered an investment property in 2020.
Houses used as an investment were mainly owned by individuals living in the same province as the property.
However, condo apartments were used as an investment more often than houses, with Ontario alone seeing the highest rate of condo apartments used as investments at 41.9 per cent.
https://www.castanet.net/news/Business/409703/Investors-made-up-20-to-30-of-homeowners-in-some-provinces-Statistics-Canada#409703
“Thank you for all your advice over the years,” writes Catherine, in Penticton. “This is Juno, who moved in three months after the death of our 16-year-old pooch two years ago. She’s a true mystery, found by a highway and brought to the SPCA. Silent, super soft, thinks only of food and pats, she’s filled the dog-shaped void in our home very nicely.”
—————
Very nice.
Channeling Tao Te Ching:
When the family is ready, the dog will appear’
The train’s wheels are screeching but we’re still rolling down the tracks close to full speed. Tiff will need to jack’r up more to slow this locomotive down. Either that, or our dollar heads into the dirt some more as the FED is surely going to continue raising “until the job is done”.
How accurate are the job numbers being reported in the US?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/unemployment-rate-hits-new-low-of-3-4-percent-as-jobs-and-employment-jump-but
https://mishtalk.com/economics/why-do-we-have-reduced-participation-in-a-labor-shortage-environment
https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-bls-reports-employment-in-the-second-quarter-fell-by-287-thousand
You’re getting pretty good at this wordsmith thing…blew some of my cervesa onto the laptop. Thanks!!
“First, if you truly believe prices will crash, wait to buy. But that would also mean an economic wipeout. And it’s not going to happen”
…
“Time will tell”
#2 Captain Uppa on 02.03.23 at 3:04 pm
“Oh and if the steerage section needs to realize how lucky they are, go watch “All Quiet on the Western Front”, sit down and shut up.”
Saw that on the weekend… my sentiment exactly!! A must watch lest we forget… one of the best war films.. ever!
The bad news? Such economic strength means the Fed may opt for another hike or two, taking its benchmark rate to 5% before pausing. Our guys at the Bank of Canada might follow. They might not. If the inflation numbers here continue to tick lower, we might score the best possible outcome. Rate stability. No wage-price spiral. No big job losses. A soft landing. _Garth
517 K NFP is huge. This is the biggest ,at least I have seen recently. Means moer disposable income. More byuying. Higher prices. Inflation is NOT under control. They are trying to TALK down inflation. US final rate imo 5.5%
BOC will eat crow. IMO, Spring Dead cat will go to sleep by summer.
Yet, almost every Vancouver listing I look at is still 10 to 20% above 2022 assessment values.
Mostly what I see is about house prices which most people can’t afford to buy now for some time. Regarding condos, prices in the New west/Surrey/White Rock areas of BC, have not come down from last yrs prices….many days on the market but owners are holding out it seems.
Garth, I’d love to see a post on self-managed vs. managed b/d portfolios that includes a ‘how to build a self managed’ b/d portfolio. You always speak to it but for the keen-to-learn I’d value a how to post! Or can you direct me to one you did in the past?
You forgot Tom Brady just retired ;-)!
#15 Don on 02.03.23 at 3:30 pm
“BOC will eat crow. IMO, Spring Dead cat will go to sleep by summer.”
Tiff wimped out. Afraid of killing the housing market knowing all too well so many are neck deep in debt. So he signalled a pause in hopes to avoid torpedoing a Spring market.
“The AFP operation, and the fact that the organisation targeted is just one of several large money-laundering syndicates operating in Australia, will raise fresh questions about the role of foreign funds in inflating the nation’s property market and other legislative and policy gaps in the financial and migration systems that continue to be exploited by criminals.”
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/property-grab-afp-smashes-alleged-10-billion-chinese-money-laundering-operation-20230201-p5ch7k.html
that jobs number means more hikes coming down south, no question about it.
Still early for rutting season… will be shopping after our March break holiday with the kids… some interesting places and prices popping up, but still too soon to jump. Another hike or two will make sellers a bit more anxious, which is great for me.
#7 Bill zufelt on 02.03.23 at 3:17 pm
No recession in 2023 means rates will keep rising and by 2025 will be much higher than today. Too much free out there. Have 2 or 3 kids and collect almost $2000/mth. Bring in a basic income, and inflation will be 15% by 2030.
——————————————————
How do you collect $2000/month for having 2 or 3 kids?
How did you get it?
” … the 3,100 people who bought properties in January are complete idiots who, tragically, do not read this blog and will lead hideous lives as a result?”
– Garth
—————–
Again. For the umpteenth time.
You need to be more forthright with your assertions Garth. Geeze. Louise.
Temerity. A good thing. Take away the ? and you have it Garth.
The brochure from the Speculation and Vacancy Tax Branch says…
“If a deceased person remains on title, their estate may still have to complete a declaration and if applicable, pay any tax owing.”
What if a senior was in the hospital or LTC facility for more than 181 days, right before dying? No exemption??
Governments can be so merciless. Especially BC ones.
Too bad we teach our children to to covet material items…instead of teaching them calculus….or Og’s ancient hug techniques…or to dream big.
Instead, we will always have the 1%ers and the losers (That’s us, btw), who will always desire things we cannot attain, then suffer from MHI’s ’cause we just don’t cut it…stuck in go nowhere, one-horse, middle-class hell jobs…then we’ll drink and smoke…
Then we’ll grow old and irrelevant as the world races by…
But, but, but!!!! Og still cares. Hugs on the house!*
Og
*’Till the end of the day. Showers mandatory.
One thing that may derail a balanced RE market this year, fall?, is the spectre of renewals esp. for VRM mortgages:
45% with variable mortgages say they would have to sell in under 9 months: Yahoo/Maru poll
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/45-with-variable-mortgages-say-they-would-have-to-sell-in-under-9-months-yahoomaru-poll-110037392.html
Of the 3074 surveyed, 48 per cent reported not having a loan, while 22 per cent have a line of credit, 20 per cent have a fixed rate mortgage and 14 per cent have a variable rate mortgage.
Grain of salt.
If we believe the “hanging on by a thin thread” people we would be in a deep recession by now. Yet, we aren’t.
————
I’ll say it again:
The most talked about recession that has YET to happen.
That’s obviously a bogus survey and miswritten summary. Over 40% of VRM folks are not selling in nine months, Give your head a shake. – Garth
#6 teddy on 02.03.23 at 3:11 pm
Garth- First, if you truly believe prices will crash, wait to buy. But that would also mean an economic wipeout. And it’s not going to happen.
***********************************
Sorry the one doesn’t follow the other. What is this some reverse Tony Robbins think positive or else. Me buying or not buying will not affect the market and thinking positive wont change circumstances outside of my control.
Shaming people into not waiting or they caused a market downturn is not cool.
_________________________
You have misunderstood Garth. He’s saying that it would take an economic wipeout to crash prices, and that he believes that will not happen.
He’s not saying an individual not buying a house will crash the market. He’s saying sitting on the sidelines means you miss out on the current temporary price reprieve (such as it is).
Inflation is not at an end yet. The dairy racket has increased farm gate prices for the 3rd time in a year. Labour unions are all demanding increases greater than what they think inflation will be. The BoC will be forced to hike again before this cycle is over.
Unfortunately, the Tech outfits gave bad news in earnings today, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet.
META gains stalled. Ya, they saved $15B with layoffs but want to spend $40B with stock buybacks and have $26.4B free cashflow available. Share price boost from buybacks temporary and will eventually lead to lower earnings, but hey, hopefully they know what they are doing.
——
Investing in value stocks but the above dragged down everything today as well.
TSLA still rebounding, some good news (IRS boosts Model Y EV tax credit eligibility).
A jittery Mr. Market at present that thrives on good news and punishes even the slightly bad.
Oh well. Patience. Bumps in the road.
“over reach? ” maybe More is needed than less.
Buying your innocence or saying sorry but not sorry
By ALANNA DURKIN RICHER and MICHAEL KUNZELMAN
Sorry, not sorry: Some 1/6 rioters change tune after apology
https://apnews.com/article/jan6-capitol-riot-participants-change-tune-after-apologies-f0f37e1409da9366d2d3cc3de65502d9
script : …”takes all these allegations, investigations and proceedings very seriously.” …or “has acknowledged “past weaknesses” and “learnt from our mistakes”
An ICIJ analysis finds a surge in closed-door non-prosecution agreements, with more governments allowing companies to pay to settle cases. But deep-pocketed firms keep breaking the law.
By Sydney P. Freedberg, Karrie Kehoe and Agustin Armendariz
Image: Rocco Fazzari / ICIJ
December 13, 2022
https://www.icij.org/investigations/fincen-files/jail-bankers-who-allow-money-laundering-top-democrat-in-u-s-senate-banking-committee-says-in-wake-of-fincen-files/
https://www.icij.org/investigations/ericsson-list/as-us-style-corporate-leniency-deals-for-bribery-and-corruption-go-global-repeat-offenders-are-on-the-rise/?utm_campaign=Sprout&utm_content=Shadow+Diplomats&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
As an example, he pointed to ICIJ’s reporting on Ihor Kolomoisky, a Ukrainian billionaire who has been accused by U.S. prosecutors of secretly plowing hundreds of millions of dollars stolen from a Ukrainian bank into investments in Ohio and other places in the American heartland. ICIJ found most of those companies were registered in the Caribbean with no known owner, active business or office — hallmark signs of shell entities used for money laundering, experts said.
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ftx -116 pages so far of creditors
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Russia’s Sberbank expects to launch its Ethereum-based DeFi platform by May, according to Interfax “The blockchain platform will be compatible with Ethereum. The system will be able to use, in particular, users of MetaMask crypto wallets
=======================
• Russia is stepping up sales of Chinese yuan as energy revenues have fallen.
• The Kremlin is further drawing down its $45 billion stockpile of renminbi.
• Moscow saw a decline of 54% in energy revenue in January from December. (business insider)
You should always preface your housing remarks by saying these views represent 2 markets. The rest of the country is not experiencing this. In the west, outside of Vancouver and maybe Kelowna the market hasn’t crashed 23% and it’s NOT a buyers market.
That’s obviously a bogus survey and miswritten summary. Over 40% of VRM folks are not selling in nine months, Give your head a shake. – Garth
Ya. Thanks for clubbing me over the head for eventually revealing it was bogus.
They had me going this morning until I checked the survey numbers and composition. It just didn’t sit right with me.
Clickbait. They got me, for a little while … and then I got clubbed.
#2 Captain Uppa on 02.03.23 at 3:04 pm
“Oh and if the steerage section needs to realize how lucky they are, go watch “All Quiet on the Western Front”, sit down and shut up.”
———————-
Going completely O/T. I’ve been doing a lot of family research lately. I have 5 ancestral cousins who died in WW1. I have a Great Grand uncle who’s name is on the Canadian National monument at Vimy Ridge, France. 11,000 names of soldiers who have no known grave. My 22 year old great uncle was a Bomber Command navigator, shot down and killed off the coast of Holland in WW2. My grandfather landed in Sicily in Operation Husky and died of malaria.
I go online and what do I see? Folks incensed over being called the wrong pro-nouns. ‘Safe spaces’ at universities for students who equate hearing alternative opinions to physical violence. And politicians tying themselves up in knots trying to justify letting men into women only spaces/activities, because these men now ‘identify’ as a woman.
I have to wonder what my ancestral relatives who gave their lives, would think of this modern generation…..
People keep referencing the crazy peak pandemic house prices when sales volumes were low along with low supply and prices on a few units spiked as idiots fought for them. Fascinating that this is the reference for current drop claims.
As if real estate wasn’t completely out of whack in 2019 already by a LONG margin, and we’re hardly at 2019 prices even. But hey, sheeple are dumb so they’ll believe that these prices are structurally sound, as if a bunch of boomers aren’t about to kick the bucket and free up a pile of inventory.
Suddenly, this weird pandemic data abnormality is some reference point against which drops are measured?
Nonsense in my view.
—
#35 Alois on 02.01.23 at 3:35 pm
People want REAL……as in REAL ESTATE.
Real? As in Real Estate Alois?
This is just marketing nonsense language.
Do you know what “real estate” is called in Europe? It’s either “property” or some version of a word that translates to “non-movables.” Do you know why?
Because when a war breaks out, and some country decides it wants to invade another in Europe, people flee and leave houses behind. They don’t and can’t pack and take the house with them. It’s a non-movable thing that can’t be taken with and is likely lost.
Real Estate…pfff. I’ve learned the beauty of propaganda that is the English language over time.
It’s not money printing, it’s quantitative easing.
It’s not a corporate bailout, it’s a rescue.
It’s not debt encouragement, it’s stimulative policy.
Real estate will continue to be choked down just like oil even if rates pivot – delayed effect.
‘Juno’ is a mystery – best quality Heinz 57 type dog:) At a glance, I’m guessing some retriever & Australian shepherd genes are part of the package. Very pretty pup!
As for today’s economic predictions, I’m hearing the ‘Don’t worry, be happy’ melody sounding softly in the background.
GTA prices dropped about $13,000 from December to January settleing around 1,038,000. That is aboit a 1.2% deline from December.
The trend is clearly down, but not as dramatic as the 2nd Quarter of 2022 where most of the post Covid decline occurred.
Prices still DO NOT reflect the reality of a 5% mortgage environment, and I expect further declines in prices.
I was listening to Ron Butler on the Loonie Hour podcast this morning and he was saying something like the Canadian bank 90 day default rate has ticked up from 0.14% to 0.15%. But the US banks say we’re too conservative if our 90 day defaults aren’t in the 0.35% range. Ron speculated the rate will continue to tick upwards but will never hit the 0.35% range.
However he also suggested the the big banks don’t hold many risky mortgage at all. The vast majority are very well underwritten. But secondary lenders (private, MICs etc.) have grown their business substantially and that’s where the pain will be felt. Banks are safe.
Anyways it was an interesting interview. But basically he was saying there won’t be a crash. We might be stabilizing.
Hitler and Adele toured together?
#166 AnonyMusk on 02.03.23 at 2:17 pm
Hey, you did a good job there. You regurgitated some of your brainwashing from browsing Tesla fan forums and attending SEC school. I’m disappointed that you didn’t tell me that Elon Lands Rockets. Or that he will colonize Mars. There’s always next time, right?
Second, if you can’t afford a home in a market that’s tanked almost 30% in a few months maybe you should give it up. Stop being angry and aggressive. A house is not the goal of life.
A house might not have been your goal in life, but it certainly is for many. (Or at least one of them.) Isn’t a house, a couple of cars, a dog, and some kids supposed to be the middle class dream? In case you haven’t noticed, there aren’t a lot of alternatives for people hoping to raise families. (Did you know that raising two kids of different genders in a two bedroom apartment is grounds for eviction in Ontario?)
A quiet side market note:
The value of underground bunkers and retreats is going through the roof.
Chinese balloons is just one tiny symptom of what we are about to experience, and mostly die because of.
PREPARE
#33 Dolce Vita on 02.03.23 at 4:28 pm
Clickbait. They got me, for a little while … and then I got clubbed.
—
I, for one, find it shocking that you were so easily mislead. I mean, a guy who has the real-deal scoop on sea level rise in the Mediterranean shouldn’t be so easily fooled.
Juno’s haunted eyes express it all. Gratitude for being taken into a loving home.
As for what’s coming in housing and all other things, I’ll stick with Hemingway’s ‘Gradually, than suddenly’. Whatever happens the blissfully ignorant and useful idiots will have been well warned.
#34 Elon Fanboy on 02.03.23 at 4:29 pm
I find it interesting that you think that your forefathers, who died fighting fascism in Europe, wouldn’t also fight neo fascism in today’s western society. There’s a very real chance that your trans-hating and queer-hating views — that are vomited profusely by the fraudulent election conspirators who also dabble in antisemitism now and then — will put you on the wrong side of any future war against the rising fascist wave.
To put a fine point on it: wouldn’t your forefathers be hopping to fight if someone repeatedly addressed each of them as a she/her? Chances are good that they would assess your whinging as fragile, hand-wringing do-nothingism and step over you as they march forward along the arc of justice.
Why is Vancouver’s market considered a bellweather and not an insane outlier? Wouldn’t Montreal be a better example or markets that aren’t completely juiced and out of touch to your average Canadian? I get that historically it was out of sync du to trying to tear up the country issues, but that time seems passé now.
“For the George twins, Florida was the best place to open pain clinics. The state had no centralized prescription database. Anyone could open a pain-pill clinic — no license or authorization required — and doctors were legally permitted to sell drugs directly to patients.from 2008 to early 2010, these pill mills distributed approximately 20 million oxycodone pills and made more than $40 million from the illegal sales of controlled substances. Thirteen of the 32 defendants were doctors.
pill mills
https://search.justice.gov/search?query=pill+mills&op=Search&affiliate=justice-usao-fls
https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/miami/press-releases/2012/three-more-defendants-sentenced-in-broward-and-palm-beach-counties-in-pill-mill-operation-1
An estimated 3,000 people died from overdoses linked to the brothers’ clinics, the FBI says
So Chris George hired one doctor and another and another, until he had a raft of them. He paid them per patient, incentivizing large and frequent prescriptions.— George’s clinics were staffed with strippers; heavily tattooed bouncers patrolled the parking lots in golf carts. Doctors carried guns. Clients were peeing on the sidewalk, shooting up in the parking lot, dealing drugs in plain view.”
February 7, 2018
law enforcement officers said that making a case against an illegal pain clinic is very difficult. Pill mills are lucrative businesses: A physician prescribing opioids can make thousands of dollars a day, often in cash, and owners and physicians can afford expensive defense attorneys. For that reason, some officers said that laws that allow law enforcement to seize assets were very helpful. In one investigation, officers found more than $30 million in cash; a single house had more than $1 million in the attic.
https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/florida-legislation-helps-reduce-number-pill-mills
=====
Monday, January 9, 2023
Florida Doctor Sentenced for Substance Abuse Treatment Fraud Scheme
MIAMI – A Florida doctor was sentenced today to 20 years in prison for engaging in a massive multi-year scheme to bill health care benefit programs for fraudulent tests and treatments for vulnerable patients seeking treatment for drug and/or alcohol addiction. This case was brought as part of the Department of Justice’s Sober Homes Initiative.
According to court documents, Michael J. Ligotti, D.O., 48, of Delray Beach, served as Medical Director or Authorizing Physician for over 50 sober homes, substance abuse treatment facilities, and clinical testing laboratories in the Palm Beach County area, often signing standing orders for expensive, medically unnecessary urine drug tests for patients at various addiction treatment facilities. These facilities routinely sent patients’ urine specimens to clinical testing laboratories, which then billed health care benefit programs for unnecessary urine drug tests, often thousands of dollars for a single test. In exchange for Ligotti’s authorization of these urine drug tests, the treatment centers required their patients to regularly visit Ligotti’s clinic, Whole Health LLC, for additional treatment and testing, or allowed Ligotti’s staff to come to their facilities to conduct tests and treatment there. This allowed Ligotti to profit by billing patients’ private health insurance plans for duplicative, medically unnecessary, and expensive urine drug tests, blood tests, and other addiction treatments. As a result of this conduct, which took place from 2011 to 2020, health care benefit programs were billed over $746 million and paid approximately $127 million for fraudulent urine drug tests and addiction treatments. Ligotti pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit health care and wire fraud in the Southern District of Florida in October 2022 and was ordered today to surrender his medical license.
from yesterday
dave Most political analyst believe that Putin is one of the most clever, smart and experienced leaders in the world today.
Jonathan Fink at 29:00 “we ascribe to him far more strategic skill and foresight than he actually possesses. His decisions were based on an opportunistic hunch which has gone horribly wrong”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maBUKuJmQ4M
Calling the bottom on house prices? Tough call – the stats suggest otherwise. Just take a look at this one from Manulife from last April, before we even got serious about rate increases.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/homeowners-interest-rate-survey-1.6487137
Other stats claim 20% or so of mortgage holders are in limbo, hoping for a change before the mortgage rate resets. My bet is that hasn’t happened yet for most. After that it’s the Alamo.
I’m on the sidelines and have no desire to buy, for now doing JOMO (joy of missing out). But I do see the 1000 yard stare from coworkers when the subject comes up.
Statscan is seriously conducting polls to see the effects of the rate hikes, being the intel for the CB and we’ll know more later in the year. Too bad the Federal liberals won’t use this information.
Fun fact: According to Google 1 in 54 homes foreclosed in the US during the 2008-2011 housing debacle nation wide. Look what that did.
Fun fact 2: It takes 6-10 months to foreclose on a house in Canada
Too early to tell.
Of course I did not call a bottom. Nobody knows where that lies. But waiting for 30% to turn into 40% could be a heartbreak if it becomes 15%. – Garth
Man, this blog has sure changed its tune lately on the future of residential real estate prices in Vancouver and Toronto.
I recognize the beat, but could you hum a few more bars so that I can recognize the new melody?
The blog forecast a rate-induced correction. Here we are. Want your money back? – Garth
I’ve never understood the sky is falling crowd.
Anyone in heavy industry these days is busy beyond anything seen before. Everyone moaning about supply chain issues as the only impediment to growth. Many factories have 2+ years of backlogs.
In the electrical business, it’s full steam ahead. In the US Southwest for instance, the growth in huge solar and battery farms is only limited by equipment supply.
Given how long it takes to build factories to produce power semi-conductions, batteries, solar panels… especially the newest and best of these, this problem isn’t going to get sorted out for a while.
Check out everyone who has even a small manufacturing plant in Alberta. Try hiring even semi-skilled labour or at least people who will show up at least 4 days a week and not on drugs.
Try buying plane tickets…. and on and on and on.
Record unaffordability (Is that a word?) Is not a buyers market!!!!!! Ever!
#44 Faron on 02.03.23 at 4:53 pm
#33 Dolce Vita on 02.03.23 at 4:28 pm
Clickbait. They got me, for a little while … and then I got clubbed.
—
I, for one, find it shocking that you were so easily mislead. I mean, a guy who has the real-deal scoop on sea level rise in the Mediterranean shouldn’t be so easily fooled.
—————-
There is no Mediterranean in Alberta.
At least not yet.
Just heard that in the U.S. mortgage rates are actually dropping even as the FED raised the benchmark. This could help goose the housing market in the States. If mortgage rates here start to drop, that should further fuel the housing frenzy and seal the price bottom.
#17 april on 02.03.23 at 3:42 pm
…. have not come down from last yrs prices….many days on the market but owners are holding out it seems.
************
Yes, these are not the owners. These are speculators and shadow money. These guys can wait. The owners, if they are not idiots, try to sell.
Over 40% of VRM folks are not selling in nine months, Give your head a shake. – Garth
***********
So, something interesting will be on RE market after 9 month when RE VRM baby will born.
The mighty US dollar.
The only thing to moderate the rise is a gift of a bunch of F-16’s and F-18’s to the Ukraine.
It can’t happen fast enough.
Throw in some more Abram’s tanks and some additional Bradley’s.
They fight for us so let’s start equipping them properly.
Owning a house can be a fine goal. If you luck into the right one, it fulfills many needs and desires. My wife and I, now empty-nesters and frequent family event hosters, often marvel that the vagaries of fate have delivered us such an idyllic prize. Relaxing in the living room by the fire watching the deck telescope feed of Departure Bay is a favourite pleasure.
Owning this house satifies my soul. Possibly my wife’s, too, but she might have conditions.
Garth,
This just in, secret video from the steerage section!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmQwL6qiByo
“Cars, Garth. CARRSS! I am dying for a post on the state of the vehicle market and what advice you have given that leases are not nearly as attractive anymore.”
Follow the “Car Dealership Guy” on Twitter – he’s excellent.
#34 Elon Fanboy
I too have many relatives who fought in the World Wars. Most of my immediate family are military, including my husband.
I would like to think that since they were fighting for our freedom, they would be happy that people can live as who they are meant to be, and not be sent off, as so many were, to be exterminated. (Jews, blacks, Romani, gays, trans, mentally challenged)
With 500,000 new jobs in the US in January and 3.4% unemployment, I’m afraid the “pause” will be a short one.
Not done yet. Not good for Tiff.
The U.S. unemployment rate is 3.4%!!
Only 3.4% of those who want a job, don’t have one. And it tends to be a different group of people each month to some extent. Long-term unemployment has to be lower than 3.4%.
At this rate even people who are not looking for a job and don’t want a job are going to get one anyhow!
Layabout husbands (See Andy Cap) will be forced intot he workforce. No excuses.
Kids will probably be quitting elementary school to get jobs (probably as coders making $100k – a month, that is).
Whee!
Yep, anyone who wants a minimum wage job can get one.
“Second, if you can’t afford a home in a market that’s tanked almost 30% in a few months maybe you should give it up. Stop being angry and aggressive. A house is not the goal of life. Best to face that now.“
A path to happiness is to adapt, adjust and accommodate to external conditions.
If trying to obtain a goal makes you miserable, … change your goal.
It’s easier to change your internal world than forcing change on the external world.
Ontario has claimed that it does not need to pay billions of dollars owed to First Nations over broken treaty obligations, arguing that it has already spent the sum on the historical costs of resource extraction and the infrastructure of “colonization”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/03/ontario-colonization-costs-billions-first-nations-treaty
#145 Artisanal Mining of Cobalt on 02.03.23 at 10:40 am
Anyone still want to brag about their electric car? You should feel utter shame and revulsion at your own naivete.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cobalt-red-review-the-human-price-of-cobalt-11675293373
Artisanal, this is nothing. Price of charging a car on Electrify America is going up 11.6% to 19%.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/02/electrify-america-is-raising-its-prices-in-march/
Consequently, charging the 66 kWh battery pack in a Chevrolet Bolt from 10 to 80 percent will cost $22.18 for regular Electrify America members or $16.63 for Pass+ members, based on adding 46.2 kWh to the battery pack.
If you look around, in winter weather the Bolt is clocking 160 miles of range. In normal weather, 259 miles on a full charge. 80% would be 207 miles, and of course you need to get to a charger with 10%, you don’t want to exceed that, so going from 10% to 80% as per Electrify America is going to yield a range of 181 miles.
SO…to sum up.
Chevrolet Bolt 2022 – $36,868 CAD after environmental Ontario rebates plus GST.
We drive it to New York for a trip, where to go 181 miles, a 10% to 80% charge costs $22.18 USD if I become a member.
My friend who bought a Mazda 3 sedan seems to have more space in his car. How are his economics working out?
Mazda 3 Sedan – $24,278.50 CAD + GST for the base 2.0L Skyactive-G model. Already he’s $12,592.50 ahead in his pocket.
He’s driving behind me on this trip in New York State, and he’s about to fill up. He’s getting 28mpg city 36mpg highway, let’s say for fun 29mpg total.
He pulls into a gas station across from my charging point, and gas seems to be $3.40 USD per gallon.
https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/researchers-and-policymakers/energy-prices/motor-gasoline/weekly-average-motor-gasoline-prices
I get 181 miles on a $22.18 USD charge. At 29mpg he needs just over 6 gallons of gas. Let’s say 6.5 gallons. At $3.40 per gallon – $22.10 USD.
Knowing full well that EVs are heavily front-end loaded on the carbon emissions, as as per Polestar vs Volvo XC40, they won’t break even because of various factors until 112,000km, right about the time when the battery in the Polestar needs to be replaced.
https://paultan.org/2020/09/28/polestar-details-climate-impact-of-electric-vehicles-co2-assessment-of-petrol-volvo-xc40-vs-polestar-2/
Honestly, what is going on? 2023, and already it costs over $12,500 more to drive a tiny Bolt over the lovely Mazda 3?
By the way, that price comparison is in the summer time.
In the winter, the Mazda 3 $22.10 amount to go 181 miles holds, but in the Bolt it does not. Bolt drops to 160 mile range in winter on full charge, 80% charge gets you 128, 10% to 80% is actually 70% range so that’s 112 miles, which the Mazda 3 can do on 4 gallons in the winter, or $13.40 USD vs. $22.18 for the Bolt on the Electrify America charger. OUCH!
In Toronto January home sales are down 44% from last year, worse year since 2009.
On the island of Montreal January sales are 91% lower than last year.
Ottawa region (including Gatineau QC) 89% less.
That’s a soft landing???
That’s exactly how we get there. – Garth
Remember,
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem assured Canadian households and businesses that borrowing rates will remain at historic lows for the foreseeable future. “Our message to Canadians is that interest rates are very low and they’re going to be there for a long time,” Macklem said at a press conference Wednesday.
Yet here we are again, no rate increases(until March)a pause(not likely) while down south saying no pause and continuous rate increases( if we do not keep up our currency will get squashed and then watch inflation )
I wonder how many people are going to fall for that line again, we shall see.
Now houses are down to a what, a cooled down million, that will cost $7500 for the monthly, all in close to $10k/mth, I feel for the people taking on this great deal on low prices now, see how they feel locking in at 5% and watching rates possibly go up to 7%-8% on 1- 2 million at renewal and thinking what a deal, I should have spent more.
I will continue to rent while prices march back up to the 1.5-2 million range again as you are predicting, with great interest.
Have a great weekend and thanks for the blog!
This weblog knows, there’s no replacement for displacement.
“GM announced on Friday that it would be spending $854 million to make its sixth-generation small block V8, and $64 million to help its EV efforts, in news that sounds like it belongs in a different year but isn’t. The news also confirms that a sixth-generation small block V8 is happening, which GM says it intends to use to “strengthen its industry-leading full-size truck and SUV business.” (jalopnik.com)
— In 10 or so year’s time, when ICE vehicles are banned what will the rural folks do? Will they be forced off the land, into the crowded Smart Cities?
Will the electric ambulances and fire trucks have enough juice for a 2-4 hour round trip into Bunnypatch and in wintertime, and fight a fire for hours on end? Nope.
A few years ago I suggested that denial of property insurance might be used to force people out of the rural areas. If the power goes out and your car is discharged, you could die – over days.
My prefecture is using Hybrid ambulances.
——————
https://reason.com/2023/01/21/e-u-rules-will-force-dutch-to-ban-livestock-farming/
E.U. Rules Will Force Dutch To Ban Livestock Farming
A 2019 court ruling has begun to force Dutch farmers out of business—by design.
BAYLEN LINNEKIN | 1.21.2023 8:30 AM
Remember everyone, if interest rates take real estate down to crash levels in the USA and especially Canada, everything crashes with with it, and l mean everything. The stock markets, commodities, “crapto”…black holes all of them, will be. The current data is far too conflicting (not to mention, manipulated) and wayyyyyy too early to tell.
Who really knows the real reasons behind the Bay Street and Wall Street types already calling a bottom after only 10 months of drops that are meaningless to those who have been priced out for years and now face far higher borrowing costs. These skim-off-the-toppers may be right or just high on hopium.
Helifino
In my humble view, one main indicator of whether we are entering into a recession is whether consumer spending is decreasing. With so many boomers opting for retirement during ans since the pandemic, it is not at all surprising to me that the labour force, job creation, is running hot as there were so many positions to fill with all those leaving. If inflation continues to run hot, which effectively decreases consumer spending on non-necessary items, then this will be the key measure on whether the economy enters a recession. If this occurs, the labour market will retrench. In summary, owing to the large demographic change in the workforce, the labour market at the percent unemployment will not be the lead indicator this time around of whether we are entering a recession… the metric to watch is consumer spending…In our little family, we have never done much un-necessary “consumer spending” and in the past year months we have been more frugal than in the past… perfectly fine with it.
It all boils down to gender-based politics from the Liberals.
The purpose of a human identified as a male, is to be a partner and a parent.
Now you have unfair divorce laws and no good humans who identify as females to marry: what is the purpose of busting out 60 hour weeks?
There’s no affordable houses to buy anywhere in Canada, no good humans who identify as females to marry, no kids to be had: so what’s the point?
So you can just lose it all in a violent recession every 8 years, or have your accounts seized by an emergency act from Justin Trudeau?
A lot of men are going their own way by moving to Italy like Dolce Vita and I don’t blame them
#15 Dave on 02.02.23 at 12:35 pm
You can’t be serious quoting this guy. You can’t find a home on the West Side of Vancouver for under 3 million–anywhere!
#18 Dave on 02.02.23 at 12:41 pm
DELETED (Tired of you. Bye)
Dave had a bit of a shocker on here yesterday, don’t know why yesterday he got the trapdoor treatment, his post yesterday were consistently inconsistent as always.
Glad you guys sorted out the whole West Vancouver, Vancouver Westside thing, I saw one poster say that Vancouver Westside starts at Main St, it’s actually Ontario Street a small distance away, but for that small distance some people will drop and extra 200k or so when things are ripping.
Since this post by Garth is titled ‘The Facts’ let’s see if in fact you can get a house on Vancouver Westside for under 3 million.
Dave said “home”, that could be anything, people sleep in the park for free, I’ve done it when I overdid a bender or two backpacking around Europe until my liver told me to move to Canada.
Detached on the Westside between 2 and 3 million, Realtor.ca brought up around 50 listings.
There’s some land assembly blocks, I didn’t count them and the cheapest one is on the aforementioned Ontario st, but let’s go full on Westside, away from the Eastside goons, like myself.
Bottom end Vancouver Westside.
Decent looking old timer, just a smidge over 2 million.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24960225/2947-w-41st-avenue-vancouver
Now let’s see what the full fishing quota hits us at the 3 million mark.
Nice looking house ,turn key.
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/25200299/1597-w-63rd-avenue-vancouver
So yeah, 3 million is a chunk, people are buying larger Vancouver Specials on the Eastside for 2 million though, so it’s only an extra million to sneak around your backyard and peak through the hedges to see what your more moneyed neighbour is up to on a sunny summer afternoon.
For you folk in Ontario, the main difference between Eastside and Westside of Vancouver follows.
The Westside has houses with swimming pools, on the Eastside people are swimming in drugs…
M48BC
Wage inflation is #1 going way back to the invention of Econ 101. So now that it’s a political inconvenience we forget about it? With inflation rampant while job creation is burning, what happens to prices? The Fed / BOC has only one choice, raise rates and hard. Either that or see your neighbor racing to the bakery with a wheelbarrow of full of cash. Politicians must decide between popularity and a Zimbabwe style collapse.
My man Elon has prevailed against yet another vexatious lawsuit.
Also, the California Megapack factory is producing a $2M Megapack every 68 minutes. Demand is currently unlimited.
And the federal $7500 rebate rules have changed to include the MY 5 seater. With state and fed rebates, an M3 in Oregon costs $30,560. No sales tax. And good margins at that. Crazy.
Anybody see Ford lost $2B last year? Tesla didn’t, haha.
The recent low was a screaming deal. Still attractive +80% later.
Inflation is just starting. It is here to stay for a very long time.
Labour market can not be killed with current pathetic rates.
The guys at BoC showed their competence again.
The same guys who told us that rates would not rise any time soon just 18 months ago. And were wrong.
How pathetic must one be to try to save face in the case of such colossal failure?
Now they are wrong again/about peak rates.
Constantly wrong.
And will be wrong about inflation. Again!
And people trust them?
What was the definition of insanity?
To do the same thing (trust the same people) over and over again and expect different results.
The Fed will drag BoC rates higher.
The bosses at BoC are just figurehead, yes men with zero competence
The ‘terminal rate’ should be the rate at which real inflation disappears, not the rate at which indebted market participants crash and burn.
Thinking of starting crowdfunding campaign so we can send the BoC bosses to university so they they can learn economics and banking, maybe some statistics.
Grade 2-3 should be fine to have some significant improvement from the work they are doing currently.
@#46 Formidable Faron’s Fascist Fight
“To put a fine point on it: wouldn’t your forefathers be hopping to fight ”
++++
While I envision soldiers hopping on one leg with bemusement.
I dont think they’d be hopping….they’d be marching
#71 TurnerNation
1…“GM announced on Friday that it would be spending $854 million to make its sixth-generation small block V8, and $64 million to help its EV efforts
2…In 10 or so year’s time, when ICE vehicles are banned
************
Do not panic!!!!
Let’s start with the fact that the production of electric vehicles is more environmentally dirty than with internal combustion engines. Steel – 500 kilograms, Copper – 300 kilograms, glass – very dirty production!!! Lithium Battery – Lithium mining and battery manufacturing is a HORRIBLY dirty business. Moreover, a car with an internal combustion engine is completely recyclable, and there is still no technology for recycling lithium batteries. They accumulate and pollute nature. Criminal ecologists simply deceive people. And electricity is a very small percentage of environmentally friendly. So – at present, a car with an internal combustion engine is MORE environmentally friendly than an electric car. It’s time to stop the environmental lies!
Note to your numbers – I marked number 1.
$854 million to make its sixth-generation small block V8, and $64 million!
What is GM betting on?
Note number 2.
Nothing will be banned in 10 or even 30 years. That’s why there are a million times more of us owners of internal combustion engines than owners of electric vehicles. And we will ban any party that wants to ban us owners of ICE !!!
And finally, the cherry on the cake! When the third world war begins, there will be no electricity in the plug. BUT will be gas and you can store it in canisters and you can move your family from city to a safe place.
“First, if you truly believe prices will crash, wait to buy. But that would also mean an economic wipeout. And it’s not going to happen.”
That means we have a rigged market managed by criminals who are guilty of crimes against humanity and the government is part of the problem.
Here’s a bed time story; on the phone with a life long friend long horn ranching in Mt., whom disclosed he had paid 8G/yr, (US) for health insurance when the two kids were in the nest.
5G deductible/person.
One year, all four of them had some issues.
8G+(5GX4)=28G USD after tax income, out the door.
Here in NS, indoor parking at the big hospital in Halifax cost me $14.00/day to visit the patient getting a triple by-pass for free, in 2020.
Which is worse?
#68 Theory of Everything
Re: Mazda 3 vs. Bolt
Just scanned over your number.
They seem on line with what I have in my mind.
I never believed the sales crap that EV’s are cheaper to run.
And, the gap is just gonna get worse as electricity becomes more and more expensive.
This is not an endorsement for gas vehicles.
Just saying the EVs are not the answer to congestion and need for massive road infrastructure expenditures.
Only mass public transport is.
#77 Sail Away on 02.03.23 at 8:58 pm
Anybody see Ford lost $2B last year? Tesla didn’t, haha.
The recent low was a screaming deal.
___________________________________
Yeah, I finally bought some Ford this morning just before open bell-when I shop, but Douche Bank gave them a downgrade on BNN, as I clicked, so I cancelled.
I’ll take your advice and buy Ford Monday morning, now that the dust has settled.
I knew you were a Tesla pumper, it is good to see that you have now seen the light!
Buy low and all that…..
No, retirements don’t create job growth
#73 yvr_lurker on 02.03.23 at 8:29 pm
In my humble view, one main indicator of whether we are entering into a recession is whether consumer spending is decreasing. With so many boomers opting for retirement during ans since the pandemic, it is not at all surprising to me that the labour force, job creation, is running hot as there were so many positions to fill with all those leaving.
***********************************
Ah, no, the 517,000 is net new jobs, net of job leavers due to retirement or any other reason.
It would be rude to bring up, was it Churchill’s?, remark about a humble man, with much to be humble about. Well, I never claimed not to be rude once in a while.
#7 Bill zufelt on 02.03.23 at 3:17 pm
How did you get two or three kids? I’ve got two. And I know some friends with three. But no one I know has “two or three”.
At Joseph #23, reading his text carefully, he “collects” 2000 / mo while earning a small income… People on the receiving end of child support talk like that… Likely that’s where he’s ‘collecting’ the money.
I was talking with my son today about “all of it” – the trajectory of life and all that comes with it – the things that we seem are important and are “told” are important BUT what really is important – from the moment we are born till the moment we leave this mortal form is ever so brief – ENJOY the ride because ………..
You know things might be getting dire when non finance Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland starts talking about “govts must show fiscal responsibility” before the Provincial finance ministers conference next week….
The Liberal fiscal hypocrisy is painful to behold.
#71 TurnerNation
*************
And here’s more about electric cars.
And where are those idiots who are going to cancel the internal combustion engine in 10 years will take electricity? There are 30,000,000 cars in Canada. Where will the extra electricity come from? Probably from parliament. I have not heard anything about the construction of new power plants. For example, to build a nuclear power plant (the most environmentally friendly electricity) – it takes about 20 years. For 30,000,000 electric machines, you probably need 5 at least. Well, where is it?
Did you know that the life of a lithium battery is 5-6 years. Then – to the trash. Well, we have a lot of forests – we will bury 30,000,000 batteries every 6 years.
Any fantastic plans?
And so it is in everything. Off topic, but I’ll tell you. 500,000 immigrants a year will come. I don’t mind if it’s necessary. True, no one has proven that this is exactly what is needed. Well, let it be so necessary. But my question is – you inviting people, and everything is ready for their service? Do you have enough family doctors in abundance? Have you built new hospitals to serve the people? Have you finally built schools so that their children can study? Something I have not heard about the construction of new schools, for example, here in Toronto.
Solid fantasies.
Over 1 million mortgages are going to be renewed over the next year. At least a portion aren’t going to make it…despite the jobs headlines.
Unemployment is happening via a different path…inflation. In other words, we’ve all kept our jobs but taken a pay cut in real terms. Effectively, the pain is spread across society instead of acutely limited to the unemployed.
The Age of Energy Independence is over. Yes this affects homes. Single control via a government-supplied line of electricity. Avec Karbon Taxes natch. The new serfdom is here. Trust the Science.
https://nypost.com/2023/01/11/hochuls-plan-to-ban-sale-of-gas-stoves-fuels-outrage/
Gov. Hochul quietly sneaks in proposal to ban sale of gas stoves, fuels outrage across New York
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local/california-moves-to-ban-sale-of-all-new-natural-gas-furnaces-and-water-heaters-by/article_15b3c3ab-1610-5631-996b-756be8ade116.htmlCalifornia moves to ban sale of all new natural gas furnaces and water heaters by 2030
—- Our Colour Revolution (red natch) is well under way. Comrade all the old culture must go. March 2020.
(Why not teach a claas on both topics?:)
.TDSB trustees vote in favour of replacing current Grade 11 English course with class focusing on First Nations writers (toronto.ctvnews.ca)
.No cards, no candy: Ontario school bans Valentine’s Day, arguing it harms equity goals (nationalpost.com)
.Toronto police to no longer publicly share surnames, genders of missing persons (toronto.citynews.ca)
.Lynn McDonald: Toronto should reverse its botched decision to rename Dundas Street (nationalpost.com)
—
— Another day in the Land of Fizer. Haha I remember the old quaint sayings. “One-and-done”. “Primary, Secondary”
Say how many new hospital facilities were built?
.Canada’s designated COVID-19 quarantine facilities cost nearly $389M over 3 years (globalnews.ca)
.Get vaccinated against mpox, public health urges people at risk after 4 reported cases in 1 day
Those at risk should get 2 doses of vaccine, Toronto Public Health says (cbc.ca)
@#93 Pusillanimous Ponzie’s Public Pram proposals
“Only mass public transport is.”
+++
Ah yessss.
Public transit.
Diesl belching buses idling in traffic.
Or
Multi billion dollar “Skytrain” extensions to the University of British Columbia that are being tunnelled underground ( Subtrain?)at triple the cost because….the West side voters of Vancouver didn’t want ugly “above ground” Skytrain running down the Broadway corridor ( which was what the working class areas of Vancouver, Burnaby, New West and Surrey were all given) which might devaluate their property.
A multi billion dollar extension that most rapid transit wags believed was ridiculous for a University population of 40,000 students.
Using Canadian magnetic levitation technology that NO ONE else in the world is willing to buy because….its too expensive.
But that won’t stop the fiscal midgets in the NDP or the Libs from standing on the platform on opening day to cut the ribbon.
Taxpayers stuck again as the photo ops are snapped.
#84 Wrk.dover on 02.03.23 at 9:54 pm
Yeah, I finally bought some Ford this morning just before open bell-when I shop, but Douche Bank gave them a downgrade on BNN, as I clicked, so I cancelled.
I’ll take your advice and buy Ford Monday morning, now that the dust has settled.
I knew you were a Tesla pumper, it is good to see that you have now seen the light!
Buy low and all that…..
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Haha.
Every now and again in life, we are reminded that a benevolent presence surrounds us.
It is, of course, our free will to heed or ignore gentle warnings. Good luck either way.
I’ll leave you with Benjamin Graham’s wisdom that when a stalwart in the industry greatly lags its peers, a sober second look is wise.
#23 Joseph R on 02.03.23 at 3:50 pm
How do you collect $2000/month for having 2 or 3 kids?
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Trudeau’s CCB. But you’d need 4 kids to get 2 grand per month. It adds up quick though, tens of thousands all told in our case (all gravy). Bro of mine was getting over 10K *per year* for a while (none of it needed). It’s weird that the Libs decided to calculate the benefit based on sometimes highly malleable net income. Tax free too. I spent about 25K worth of mine at the local YAMAHA dealer. The rest is in the chunky B+D.
Non-child rearing Canucks really should be screaming bloody murder about this program.
#88 Doug t on 02.03.23 at 10:07 pm
I was talking with my son today about “all of it” – the trajectory of life and all that comes with it – the things that we seem are important and are “told” are important BUT what really is important – from the moment we are born till the moment we leave this mortal form is ever so brief – ENJOY the ride because ………..
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Did he look up once from his Iphone.
While you were preaching?
re: #82 Wrk.dover
hardly for free
your friend is probably paying around 20K more in income and consumption taxes a year in Nova Scotia for every 100K/yr earned than your friend in Montana
#58 Reality is stark
Throw in some more Abram’s tanks and some additional Bradley’s.
They fight for us so let’s start equipping them properly.
lol!!!!
WHat is more dangerous than no knowlwedge is half knowledge.
#69 PBrasseur on 02.03.23 at 7:49 pm
In Toronto January home sales are down 44% from last year, worse year since 2009.
On the island of Montreal January sales are 91% lower than last year.
Sales numbers is BS realtor junk, who cares, the fact is prices have barely budged and sellers are not serious due to demand. If the same adverts can stick for months to years it’s clear higher rates have little to do with it.
Wake me up when the sob stories of foreclosures and banks sweating over iffy loans come into light.
Mr. Market, Bond market as well this venerated host thinks the Fed is bluffing and will start dipping closer to zero middle of this year. I personally think the Fed and by extension CBs in general are all liars and will declare ‘mission accomplished’ and fudge inflation figures as been the case since the 90s. Middle class can get stuffed!
Who’s right is anyone’s guess.
RE: #46 Faron on 02.03.23 at 5:04 pm
#34 Elon Fanboy on 02.03.23 at 4:29 pm
I find it interesting that you think that your forefathers, who died fighting fascism in Europe, wouldn’t also fight neo fascism in today’s western society. There’s a very real chance that your trans-hating and queer-hating views — that are vomited profusely by the fraudulent election conspirators who also dabble in antisemitism now and then — will put you on the wrong side of any future war against the rising fascist wave.
=======================================
I would have been much more direct:
In Germany, between 1933 and 1945, an estimated 100,000 men were arrested as homosexuals; around 50,000 of these were sentenced by civilian courts, 6,400 to 7,000 by military courts, and an unknown number by special courts. Most of these men served time in regular prisons, and between 5,000 and 6,000 were imprisoned in concentration camps.
https://wienerholocaustlibrary.org/2021/02/09/persecution-of-gay-people-in-nazi-germany/
#83 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.03.23 at 9:50 pm
This is not an endorsement for gas vehicles.
Just saying the EVs are not the answer to congestion and need for massive road infrastructure expenditures.
Only mass public transport is.
Exactly. Same reason we tore out the old oil furnaces in the 70s replaced them with cheap electric. At the time made perfect sense but…
Cars (ICE or not) are a terrible, selfish, wasteful, expensive way to transport goods & meatbags around. However we have many generations browbeaten into thinking this is the correct way and built around that 1950s mindset ever since. Any criticism that denies anything less than free parking and open roads is seen as some sort of perverse attack – when reality is society subsidies and bends over backwards to the almighty personal car.
Yes I don’t believe entirely removing all vehicles and roads is a good idea no, but this 1950s nightmare needs to end. Problem is you’ve got these massive ‘vested interests’, built land, and sunk costs.
#87 Reddy on 02.03.23 at 10:03 pm
At Joseph #23, reading his text carefully, he “collects” 2000 / mo while earning a small income… People on the receiving end of child support talk like that… Likely that’s where he’s ‘collecting’ the money.
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Make sense. Did not think about child support…
Thanks Reddy!
Do we not have any sympathy for the Bank of Mum? Not only has she lost all the money she loaned the kids for a downpayment and she is carrying these dollars now on a HELOC or an increased mortgage on her own home but her own home has also lost 21.5% in value! Bad move Mum. No retirement for you.
Re the guy who commented that his ancestors who fought for King and country against tyranny would be shocked at modern youngsters grief over mis-genering and adult men in women’s changing rooms and sport, you do represent me and the majority view. Those of you who are refusing to allow his opinion should remember that you live in a free democratic country and everyone’s view is valid and allowed to be expressed. Otherwise the name of the country would be Russia or China. Democracy and majority rule, means just that.
#97 rknusa on 02.03.23 at 11:01 pm
re: #82 Wrk.dover
hardly for free
your friend is probably paying around 20K more in income and consumption taxes a year in Nova Scotia for every 100K/yr earned than your friend in Montana
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You think longhorn ranching in MT. pays bigly, do you?
And that I know anyone making 100k in NS?
#90 VladTor on 02.03.23 at 10:16 pm
500,000 immigrants a year will come…everything is ready for their service? Do you have enough family doctors in abundance? Have you built new hospitals to serve the people? Have you finally built schools so that their children can study?…
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This is a valid point. It’s also true that some of those 500,000 are family doctors, construction workers and hospital workers. If we don’t bring people to the country we still have a shortage of doctors, hospitals and schools.
#100 Kommykim
Please point out my ‘queer hating’ comments?
Or did you just fall for Faron dropping his usual bleeding heart liberal buzz words?
I feel pretty confident saying that no one’s ancestors fought in WWII so that men could run around in womanface, use women’s washrooms, ruin women’s sports, or wear enormous prosthetic breasts in front of school children.
Anyone claiming differently is an idiot.
@#92 Turner Nation
“—- Our Colour Revolution (red natch) is well under way. Comrade all the old culture must go. March 2020.
(Why not teach a claas on both topics?:)
.TDSB trustees vote in favour of replacing current Grade 11 English course with class focusing on First Nations writers (toronto.ctvnews.ca)
.No cards, no candy: Ontario school bans Valentine’s Day, arguing it harms equity goals (nationalpost.com)
.Toronto police to no longer publicly share surnames, genders of missing persons (toronto.citynews.ca)
.Lynn McDonald: Toronto should reverse its botched decision to rename Dundas Street (nationalpost.com)”
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Yep.
The Left accuses anyone that disagrees with them as being “fascist”.
No debate, no conversation.
Just fascist.
As they ram their pc policies through.
Well we’ll see how this goes over with an increasingly angry population as prices for food and rent continue to rise.
As the Federal Liberals dance around the Fiscal musical chairs this coming week in Ontariowe with the Provinces..
Massive budget debt + increased interest payments leave zero room for endless govt payola.
As Health Care fails.
( I wonder if anyone in the Federal Cabinet, or their family, has to wait in emergency , or for a family doctor ?)
Or we watch the Canuck buck at $0.65
#9 Sail Away
Very nice.
Channeling Tao Te Ching:
When the family is ready, the dog will appear
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Now THAT’s what I’m talkin’ about!
Sail Away is a disciple.
Who knew?
#40 Anonymusk
Hitler and Adele toured together?
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One of them was a narcissistic psychopath with a gnarly moustache.
And there was also Hitler.
Garth – love your blog. Please start a podcast!!
Our weekly podcast is located here. – Garth
The housing market is frozen – as it would be given the lack of affordability for new entrants. Some folks believe that sales volume in housing is a leading indicator for the economy at large, simply because housing is the economy.
Clearly 416/604 have sales volumes down 50%+, so how do we square this with a soft landing?
I agree that 5% mortgages aren’t high in historical terms, but a stress test +2% and sticker prices still out of reach of the median family income suggests there is more than a soft landing ahead.
A soft landing is an economic slowdown minus a recession, drop in business investments or big job losses. Of course a decline in real estate sales is consistent with that and, actually, a needed precursor. – Garth
#83 Ponzie
Just saying the EVs are not the answer to congestion and need for massive road infrastructure expenditures.
Only mass public transport is.
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You are bang on.
Trouble is, sadly, that in our lifetimes (an likely that of our children), in this country for sure, that’s never going to happen.
I mean, look at Toronto, for example. The city had every opportunity to create a world class state of the art subway system to augment the primitive system they commenced in the 50’s.
What did they do?
Almost nothing. They put a meagre addition onto an already outdated system, which was obsolete by the time it was completed.
Then it stagnated for decades while the city exploded in population and area sprawl.
Here we are, and the geniuses at Metrolinx decide to put in a LRT crosstown line (aka a spit in the ocean), and a dozen years later, they can’t even estimate a completion date for the stupid thing, and are already billions over budget. For what is essentially a clunky streetcar system that’s already obsolete. And doesn’t even address the population growth areas that really need the transportation.
So, unfortunately, no efficient state-of-the-art mass transportation systems will be on the horizon for Canadians any time soon.
They couldn’t even envision a subway to and from the airport.
Gasoline powered engines in personal vehicles will be the primary mode of transportation for Canadians for at least another 50 to 100 years.
All the hype about EVs in the next 5-10 years is propaganda and hopium.
Ain’t gonna happen at the speed they claim it is. They will not be able to build the charging infrastructure fast enough.
#113 Dharma Bum on 02.04.23 at 9:15 am
LRT crosstown line (aka a spit in the ocean), and a dozen years later, they can’t even estimate a completion date for the stupid thing, and are already billions over budget. For what is essentially a clunky streetcar system that’s already obsolete.
…They couldn’t even envision a subway to and from the airport.
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I share your frustration. However I’m not sure why you think a brand new LRT is already obsolete. It’s the right solution, just implemented 20 years too late and not efficiently.
Also the UP express from Union to the Airport is actually reliable and running well.
Again you overall point about the lack of vision and mass transit in a city of this size is absolutely true.
Population Growth needed?
If the goal is GDP and living standards per capita, it’s hard to imagine why any country needs more people. Especially in this automated world.
In the US the number of full-time workers in March 2022 was 132.587 million. Fast forward to January 2023 when it was 132.577: that’s right: total US full-time workers declined by 10K over a period of 10 months. Meanwhile, part-time workers soared from 25.908 million to 27.400 million, an increase of 1.492 million! So at least we know where the bulk of the increase in US labor came from in the past year: virtually no full-time jobs, and all part-time.
A walk through my forest and the boundaries of nations are quickly forgotten. Those majestic pines and towering blue spruce stay with me. As for China, Fishman nailed it.