Lotsa moaning and gnashing on this blog lately as the timorous beasties attracted to it quaver over the future. Surveys show most people are crazy scared. The steerage section below bears this out. But (as usual) it will be Pathetic Blog, 1, Doubters, 0. Just wait.
Or not.
Regarding the prediction there may actually be a Spring real estate market with higher sales and stiffening prices after a 23% correction – it might be already happening. GTA real estate data freak Scott Ingram brings this tidbit of market info. Here’s his report on the number of homes that have sold for over the list (asking) prices:
33% of houses sold in Toronto last week were sold over asking. Only one week was higher than that, going back to last July 3 (week ending Sept 18 was 37%). The last half of last year averaged 26%. Give it another week to see if sustains but last 4 weeks: 12%, 18%, 24%, 33%
Yes, maybe over-asking sales that doubled in less than a month mean nothing. Perhaps they mean everything. In that period of time inflation has tempered, the central bank announced an end to interest rate increases, bond yields fell, five-year mortgage rates dipped again into the 4% range and the bank regulator announced tighter mortgage rules may be coming later this year. Meanwhile sales in the GTA, like YVR and elsewhere, crashed by half, meaning a slew of buyers have been sitting around waiting for the bottom. If prices tick higher in the coming weeks, you now what will happen.
This does not mean the market’s healthy, that houses are suddenly affordable or the current situation doesn’t suck for anyone wanting to own real estate. It does. But reality is reality, and those who eschewed a 23% price drop because they were waiting for one of 50% might regret it. Just sayin’. Not espousing.
There also seems to be grumbling below decks over comments made here about a soft landing, rebounding macroeconomics and rising financial assets. Yup, we know most people are indebted, cash-starved, inflation-ravaged, savingless and spendy victims of their own misadventures. But this is the Kingdom of Greater Fool, and ye subjects know better. When the wails are loudest, the opportunities are greatest.
Did you see that Bay Street had the best January in three years? Up 6% in a single month. Sweet. Down in New York the S&P 500 also logged its finest start since 2019, with that index 6.2% higher. There is a long-standing and widely-held belief that the first month of a year clearly sets the tone for markets over the course of the following eleven months. If that is anything more than myth, we’re feeling foxy.
Why would investors be going risk-on? Simple. Look around. Inflation has dropped from over 9% in the States (similar here) to 6%, and is expected to keep on retreating. The Bank of Canada figures we’ll be back to 3% by the autumn. Our CB has paused rates after a piddly quarter-point increase and today the Fed moved in the same direction.
The American central bank also opted for a small jump of 25 basis points, while saying inflation was being reigned in but still a work in progress. Unlike the maple guys, Jerome Powell did not promise a pause is coming, leaving the door open to more hikes if consumer prices go squirrelly. In short, it was what analysts had predicted – and consistent with an economy that grew an astonishing 2.9% in the second half of 2022.
So, investors remain hopeful a soft landing will happen. Not too hot. Not too cold. No recession. No big jump in the jobless rate. Just a gentle descent from the threat of a wage-price spiral or a serious downturn caused by too much Fed tightening or Republican Trumpers creating a debt ceiling crisis.
Yes, risks remain. Putin is crazy, Ukraine is a mess, China’s weird, politics is polarizing and debt is everywhere. We haven’t actually recovered from the pandemic yet and are now told we have a climate emergency, a drug overdone emergency, a housing crisis and, oh yeah, a health care collapse. If you like whimpering, enjoy.
Having said that, the macro financial stuff is improving. It could turn out 2022 was the time of correction – for real estate values, monetary policy, bond prices and equity markets. This may be the year those pendulums swing back.
Or, I guess, Vlad could always nuke us. That would put Galen Weston and grocery prices in perspective.
About the picture: “I’ve been reading the blog almost consistently for roughly two years now,” writes Dan. “I appreciate the time and effort put into it, and recommend it to many who are looking to get into housing, invest. I decided to make a comment on the “Generations” article from the 30th. I didn’t notice the amounts I was quoting were in inflation-adjusted dollars, for which you ousted me…. Touche’. It would appear the more things change the more they stay the same with regards to affordability. Due to my misquote I feel obliged to provide something in return, so here is a picture of Pippa, with Pearl the new addition. I will be awaiting another time to comment but will not do so hastily next time.”
131 comments ↓
US Fed Rate:
4.5-4.75%
See what Mr. Market does.
Hopefully some projection info from Powell in a few minutes.
Yep everything is looking suprising good for the start of 2023. Unexpectedly good.
One way to make Canada go even better in 2023 is a snap elected where Trudeau gets punted. TSX would jump 6% more on that alone.
Everythings coming up Milhouse!
Or you could give this a read:
https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691242248/the-fiscal-theory-of-the-price-level
Basically, government deficits and debt cause inflation. Conclusion is we’re unlikely to see 2% inflation for a long, long time.
Who knew?
My RE friend is busier now than in quite some time. It’s happening.
Oh and a home that has been sitting in my general area just sold for 1.7M (was sitting at 1.4M – not a low ball price given the house itself).
What price point is selling? With rates high and a stress test…who is crazy enough to buy?
Is our balanced portfolio going to take another annual beating of losses in 2023?
“the central bank announced an end to interest rate increases”
Tiff was ahead of the curve by dropping the hammer hard out of the gate last Spring but I think he will now be playing catch up. Powell did the 1/4 as expected but sees “ongoing” increases.
We’ll get a real estate bump up this Spring, no surprise there from the fence sitters. But, imo we’re not done yet with the increases either.
“his does not mean the market’s healthy, that houses are suddenly affordable or the current situation doesn’t suck for anyone wanting to own real estate. It does. But reality is reality, and those who eschewed a 23% price drop because they were waiting for one of 50% might regret it. Just sayin’. Not espousing.”
Yet, in a previous post you said that the correction will go on at least for 2023. Come on Garth, admit you don’t really know how things will play out.
Mr. Market not happy so far. Hard to believe but it can change fast as usual.
Powell leaving the door open to another rate increase this year. Dec projection was 5.1%, today 4.75% so another 0.25%?
Next meeting March 21-22 and that one will have “Summary of Economic Projections”. Today’s meeting was not scheduled to have that info.
Press Release today:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230201a.htm
Multiple offers and over asking bids means nothing if asking price was well below assessed value. I still find it difficult to imagine inflation going to 3% by autumn when wage inflation will bring it back up. Prices across Canada for RE might not drop as much as hoped, but i wouldn’t be surprised if a slew of listings come online in Spring and more and more POS’s become norm and push prices down much more especially in the bubble markets of GTA and GVRD. Buying now makes no sense imo. Maybe nothing drops but its not worth the risk
It’s amazing how quickly the supply chain issues have been solved.
And no one in Germany has frozen to death due to fuel shortage.
And the price of a head of lettuce is back to its seasonal level.
Governments and the invisible hand have worked together beautifully.
“Yep everything is looking suprising good for the start of 2023. Unexpectedly good.
One way to make Canada go even better in 2023 is a snap elected where Trudeau gets punted. TSX would jump 6% more on that alone.”
If Cryptoman Poillievre gets in the TSX would nose dive.
Dead cat bounce, anyone?
2 Victor Llearna on 02.01.23 at 2:20 pm
Yep everything is looking suprising good for the start of 2023. Unexpectedly good.
One way to make Canada go even better in 2023 is a snap elected where Trudeau gets punted. TSX would jump 6% more on that alone.
————————-
There’s a saying in soccer:
“Never change a winning team”.
“But reality is reality, and those who eschewed a 23% price drop because they were waiting for one of 50% might regret it. ”
Thank you for this balanced, non-doomer, perspective Garth. I could not agree more. The value of a home will be very rewarding not just in the next year or two, but over the next two decades. Another tripling or more in value is built in as Canada welcomes newcomers, grows and prospers into the 2040s and beyond. I hope no one here misses out.
Well, our outsize reaction may say something about the effect unfair reward systems have on us, wherever they show up. It turns out they are toxic. Reams of research and stacks of business books tell us that knocking incentives even slightly out of alignment with achievement has a terrible effect on organisations – plunging workers into a kind of exhausted cynicism. Just one conspicuous instance of nepotism can infect an entire company, sending job satisfaction rolling downhill, along with productivity. Top employees leave and others stop bothering to compete. And what is true for companies is true for industries at large, or even societies. Watching the children of the famous triumphantly straddle the arts is rather like watching Gavin Williamson get knighted or City bosses awarding themselves bonuses in a mediocre year. If the world’s glittering prizes have so little to do with performance, what’s the point in even trying?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/29/nepo-babies-claim-their-parentage-is-overblown-truth-is-theyre-helped-all-the-way
Fed’s Powell: We’re talking about a couple more rate hikes to achieve an appropriately restrictive stance, we are not very far from that level.
nice to see that the laws of the universe are still at work.
The pendulum of the political scene is slowly changing back to the right as the wokey wokester’s bills come in and their policies show what they really are about.
a good day to say Dogs are Great
beer is good
Cause it’s a bittersweet symphony, this life
Try to make ends meet
You’re a slave to money then you die
I’ll take you down the only road I’ve ever been down
You know the one that takes you to the places
Where all the veins meet yeah,
The verve
Stop listening to the liars of CBC, CNN, CTV, etc.
They’re frying your brain with constant lies, Garth.
Putin ain’t crazy. See Minsk Accord, and Merkel’s statement, destroying NATO credibility.
Off Topic, sort of.
UK disgruntled with their price of pizza *.
So much so:
UK-based man proves flying to Italy and buying a pizza is cheaper than price of UK Domino’s
https://www.malaymail.com/news/life/2023/02/01/uk-based-man-proves-flying-to-italy-and-buying-a-pizza-is-cheaper-than-price-of-uk-dominos/52911
His TikTok vid is at the above link. Mr. Energy to say the least. He got a free Prosecco out of it to.
* If you can call what Domino’s sells is “pizza” (plasterboard + red syrup + petroleum based curd + mystery “meat”).
The Economist now needs to do a different Purchasing Power Parity Index based on Pizza and not just a Big Mac – Pizza Index has to include a glass of Prosecco.
A surefire way to get the steerage section to go apoplectic is to report good news. Factual or not, it seems to get a lot people angry.
If new home buyers want to have mortgage servitude for the next 50 years, have at it. Bid away…
Price to rent/income still way out of whack in TO/Van
You always claim you are right. Saying you are right on real estate by claiming the counter point is there will be a 50% drop is disingenuous. That is a straw man. There are some ridiculous predictions but all objections have been to your claim we have already seen the bottom.
And if it is a bottom what is your argument against investing in real estate?
Our CB has paused rates after a piddly quarter-point increase and today the Fed moved in the same direction.
_________
Interesting. I heard rate increases will be ‘ongoing’. He didn’t use the word pause once.
When can you be sure that the RE bubble is finally about to pop?
— When even Garth Turner has been convinced that Real Estate can only go up.
Folks a reminder that we are living the greatest wealth transfer ever. Kicked off March 2020.
From Small Business -> the ruling big global Corporations
From the working class -> Laptop class
Laptop class -> Banks (They gorged on real estate the past few year, paying the price with interest rates
Property owners -> Taxation to cities.
All citizens -> Karbon taxes.
https://ofl.ca/ofl-launches-new-campaign-enough-is-enough/
TORONTO – The Ontario Federation of Labour (OFL) has launched a new campaign to tackle the cost-of-living crisis. As Ontarians face skyrocketing inflation, wage suppression, and a crumbling public health care system, this new campaign brings people together to say: Enough is Enough!
—
— War on Small Business Continues. The science was different here, restaurants had to be shut down.
It’s like our rulers did not wish us sitting together and talking about things.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/tory-cafeto-fees-staff-1.6732293
Mayor John Tory’s powerful executive committee has sent a proposal to make the CaféTO permanent back to city staff to help address the “sticker shock” restaurants who take part in the program say they’re are feeling.
Restaurants can’t afford new fees proposed by city, owners and industry advocates say
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57079577
Toronto lockdown – one of the world’s longest? Published 24 May 2021
Toronto restaurants have been closed to diners for over 360 days since the start of the pandemic, giving the city one of the longest indoor-dining bans in the world. Why?
@#2 Victor Llearna:
You think PP “Mr Crypto” would be good for markets/economy?
I dread to think where we’d be right now as a country if he was PM during pandemic.. Telling people to not get vaccinated..
Fed saying “more hikes coming” is worrying, as I’ve said before, would Canada have to follow suit if they keep raising?
>> If prices tick higher in the coming weeks, you now what will happen.
Yes. Sellers will emerge in droves, hoping to cash in on the uptick. The good news is that this will finally give buyers more choice and unfreeze the whole market.
Where prices will go long-term depends on whether there are more sellers or more buyers flooding the market. I speculate on the former.
Friends are listing their Vancouver Kerrisdale SFH for $2.45M next week Tuesday on advice of realtor. Assessed $2.65.
Will provide updates.
J. Powell. Navy suit, white shirt, periwinkle tie. Cognizant his every word will be put under a microscope. The opening remarks what one would expect, as was the look of loathing that crossed his face when the press corp were handed the microphone for the Q&A. Poor guy would rather be getting a root canal. Here’s what I heard:
‘..the difficult risk to manage is doing too little…..anticipate ongoing hikes will be appropriate…better to overshoot….premature to declare victory… not grounds for complacency….inflation still running hot…full affect of rapid tightening still to be felt….we have to complete the job….”
Seems like the Fed is particularly interested in the labour markets which they feel are ‘not balanced’. Also, something called “Core PCE Services ex-Housing” is being watched like a hawk. I think he also murmured something to the effect of ‘no cuts this year’. Roger that.
Would it not make sense to raise rates further if realestate takes off again???
#102 Slanty Semi on 02.01.23 at 9:00 am
#80 Gravy train on 01.31.23 at 10:21 pm
You wrote:
What if your 10 year ROR was closer to twice that amount (17%) and was unaffected by 2022 (so far, at least)…though I am fully expecting that going forward from here it will be about half that rate, at least until current economic situation is clearer.
Perhaps it is time to divest and cash in the gravy while the train is still in the station.
___________________________________
Are you suggesting I go to cash?
That would be trying to time the market, which almost always leads to failure.
__________________
Sorry, I wasnt clear. I was talking about my predicament, making 17% annualized over last decade. I haven’t taken a hit in 2022 so I could switch over to something similar that did take a significant hit.~25%. So, not really market timing but more of a rebalance… you could even consider it to be arbitration.
I don’t agree with market timing either.
My crystal ball (still under warranty) predicts RE will rebound….
……people are still too gun shy re: FTX scandal…..which taints crypto currency and the spill-over collateral damage will impact stocks etc.
People want REAL……as in REAL ESTATE.
#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.01.23 at 2:47 pm
It’s amazing how quickly the supply chain issues have been solved.
And no one in Germany has frozen to death due to fuel shortage.
And the price of a head of lettuce is back to its seasonal level.
Governments and the invisible hand have worked together beautifully
And have you noticed we have gone from no one wants to work any more to massive layoffs.
The stock market is a place to own the most productive and valuable assets, of course you should never leave it and be ready to live through the occasional crash, which will happen. If you don’t you should (as Charlie Munger says) accept the mediocre results you’ll get instead.
The problem with the Canadian economy is not the stock market, it’s the phony economy driven by real estate and debt who’s now become so large it is a threat to the entire economy, in this regard rivalled only by the size of our stupidly big governments.
This scam has been going on for 20 years so we should not be surprised to see entrenched behaviours. But to infer from that that we have found a bottom is to say the least premature and naive.
As Keynes one said “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”.
But this RE market is still a long way from being sustainable and this bubble will pop.
There is a lot of disinformation out there about Cdn RE prices.
This “Sold above asking” is BS. Realtor’s deliberately lower the asking price substantially so that when the property sells they can use that quote.
Dan Foch shows that GTA real estate, will finish with fewer transactions than the 2020 covid lockdown:
https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1620088192866336768
Power of Sales, not much, but still trending up:
https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1620775911934296064
Boy Realtor Jesse Kleine says there are still foreclosures (PoS?) on the Left Coast:
https://twitter.com/jesse_kleine/status/1618727045646917633
Property that sold under list price:
https://twitter.com/jesse_kleine/status/1619786342652841989
One that sold above “asking” – basically flipper got lucky:
https://twitter.com/jesse_kleine/status/1618694823883722752
——————
Business is up but that is a relative term.
I think it’s too early to say where the Cdn RE market is going. Seems like it is in flux to me. Wait a few months and see I say.
I see that Powel has used the word “disinflationary” and once again confused the masses…
disinflation = reduction in the RATE of inflation
deflation = reduction of prices in an economy
If Pippa is the front pup in todays photo, looks like she is dubious about sharing quarters with Pearl:) Big doggy eyes!
Will be nice if 2023 has positive market returns – 2022 kind of sucked from an investor perspective. Further reason to hope that a ‘soft landing’ is indeed the outcome of central bank intervention. The world can use some upbeat news given all the dire headlines that pummel us on a daily basis. Less 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse & more Don’t Worry, Be Happy would be nice for a change!
Wife Whose Husband Drove Tesla off Cliff Told Paramedics, ‘He Intentionally Tried to Kill Us’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/wife-whose-husband-drove-tesla-off-cliff-told-paramedics-he-intentionally-tried-to-kill-us/ar-AA16XNl7
Heh. Poor planning. Clearly, he didn’t know Tesla is the safest vehicle in history.
In reality, it’s probably best that GTA residential RE and rents keep going up till literally not a single normal working person can afford anything.
Right about then, it will probably be totally legal to build a cute little scrap material shanty in a nice public park somewhere downtown. Then you could move right in with shelter security a renter would kill for.
A steady continuation of this process would bulk savings rates huge among the shanty dwellers, while simultaneously lowering RE values for miles around.
At some point, balance will be restored.
RE: #11 Jim on 02.01.23 at 2:47 pm
“Yep everything is looking suprising good for the start of 2023. Unexpectedly good.
One way to make Canada go even better in 2023 is a snap elected where Trudeau gets punted. TSX would jump 6% more on that alone.”
If Cryptoman Poillievre gets in the TSX would nose dive.
=======================================
The only ones who can beat the Liberals are the Conservatives… That means that if “Trudeau gets punted” then “Cryptoman Poillievre gets in”.
What does the TSX do then? It can’t go up AND down at the exact same time!
I suspect the economy has yet to fully internalize interest rate hikes which the Federal Reserve has been wrestling with of late; namely what’s the lag time between hikes and knock-down effects pushing through the economy?
The Americans, in a debate being closely followed, seem to be torn between faster than normal (<than 6 months) which means the effect are already present or 6-9 months which suggests a 'pause' and check approach which is reflected in today's hike.
I think a much bigger factor between now and September will be the twin-peaks of fraud and zombie corps. How widespread and flagrant fraud like FTX, Theranos etc. is and how exposed the larger investment market is could have a profound effect and put CB's in a bind; save the market from itself or protect the economy from the ravages of inflation?
When fraud becomes as big AND as flagrant as FTX it suggests the normal checks and balances are not functioning properly in the market; it takes years to figure out how widespread the problem is.
Zombie corps are somewhat related in that most will probably not survive in their current form as their debt rolls over; the current view is the newly layed-off should be absorbed in a tight labour market thus little upward pressure on unemployment or downward pressure on wages. I think we'll be waiting till early summer to see how this trend plays out.
#4 Captain Uppa on 02.01.23 at 2:25 pm
My RE friend is busier now than in quite some time. It’s happening.
Oh and a home that has been sitting in my general area just sold for 1.7M (was sitting at 1.4M – not a low ball price given the house itself).
*******************
Read the thread and replies from John P and Ron Butler. Low listings…
#108 Victor V on 02.01.23 at 10:19 am
https://twitter.com/randyselzer/status/1620635560774860801
Is there an upturn? MLS sales Jan 1-30
a housing “correction” during which average housing only became even more unaffordable to the average Canadian. nice.
TheBondStreetBets
Market Expectations(traders) =/= Fed Mandate
Futures/Derivatives are but a guess and a gamble. While the Fed today actually said higher for longer(than market expectations) with regards to rates.
With regards to “growth”, the IMF projects USA & Euro area will account for roughly 10% only. While two countries will account for roughly half of the global growth. China at 5.2% and India at 6.1%. Canada at 1.5%. Some growth story that is.
The clock is broken, the pendulum doesn’t matter.
Ahh, no recession. You must be crushed. – Garth
#25 Love_The_Cottage
Our CB has paused rates after a piddly quarter-point increase and today the Fed moved in the same direction. Interesting. I heard rate increases will be ‘ongoing’. He didn’t use the word pause once.
———–
In fact, Powell even mentioned Tiff’s BoC position on pausing and he clearly stated that was not their view at all. Tiff is going to have to change his tune.
Revealed: UK government helped sanctioned Putin ally sue British journalist
UK Treasury, then under Rishi Sunak’s control, let Yevgeny Prigozhin circumvent sanctions to target Eliot Higgins
Jim Fitzpatrick
Why was a warlord allowed to sue a British journalist? SLAPPS
But a vast cache of hacked emails shows that, under the leadership of Rishi Sunak, the UK Treasury issued special licences in 2021 to let the oligarch override sanctions and launch an aggressive legal campaign against a journalist in the London courts.
The notorious libel suit against Eliot Higgins personally followed revelations by his website Bellingcat about Wagner’s shadowy operations, and was part of Prigozhin’s strategy to undermine the sanctions against him.The case collapsed in March 2022, in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But key details of how the sanctioned oligarch was able to pursue the legal attack have remained a secret until now.
https://www.bellingcat.com/app/uploads/2022/05/BEL.00548.PRESS_.2022.05.18.Press-Release-Struck-Out-vf.pdf
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/prigozhin-government-russia-ukraine-hack-libel-slapp/
An investigation by openDemocracy has found that:
The vast cache of hacked emails and documents from one of Russia’s biggest law firms was made available to openDemocracy and The Intercept via a third party. The unsorted files were first provided to a US non-profit called Distributed Denial of Secrets, which makes them available to anyone with the necessary expertise.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/prigozhin-government-russia-ukraine-hack-libel-slapp/
https://www.bellingcat.com/app/uploads/2022/05/BEL.00548.PRESS_.2022.05.18.Press-Release-Struck-Out-vf.pdf
I’m proud and extremely grateful to be born in Canada, but holy crap this housing thing is just getting absolutely pathetic. People are dumping all their income into a box in which one eats, sleeps and occasionally copulates. Well done Canada….slow clap.
And market is at 98% average sale to list price ratio, so it is in negative price discovery mode
Every GOOD realtor I speak to is saying the same thing: feeling the market heating up, more sales, urgency, confidence – but the data doesn’t show that.
When the market gets bad, people go to the good agents. That’s why they’re feeling it. Bad agents won’t feel it at all.
https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1620807213429456896
in the hood I’m tracking in Toronto, the houses that sold over asking were dumps priced for competing offers, or greatly reduced and sold a hair over.
everything else sold under ask, with some $200k below ask and most that have been sitting $500k+ lower than the asks from Summer (their starting price).
there’s life, yes, but volumes are still crazy low and lots of demand pushed forward in 2021/2022 means 2023 will be muted.
And market is at 98% average sale to list price ratio, so it is in negative price discovery mode
Every GOOD realtor I speak to is saying the same thing: feeling the market heating up, more sales, urgency, confidence – but the data doesn’t show that.
When the market gets bad, people go to the good agents. That’s why they’re feeling it. Bad agents won’t feel it at all.
https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1620807213429456896
#34 Gravy Train on 02.01.23 at 3:34 pm
So, not really market timing but more of a rebalance… you could even consider it to be arbitration.
——-
My dog has a really nice attitude. Great distemper.
:-)
#111 Faron on 02.01.23 at 10:27 am
#91 Tony on 02.01.23 at 2:36 am
Re: #60 Faron on 01.31.23 at 7:11 pm
Where’s that checkmark thingy?
Oh, here it is.
✅
I clicked on some of the tweets posted above… and ALL of the “more tweets” were right-wing. People I absolutely would never seek out, and never read (on purpose).
Twitter didn’t do that before… I like the personal finance and R.E. commentary, not politics.
Why on earth would it “recommend” a Ben Shapiro, PP, and anonymous (to me) righties??
Oh, Elon… why are you ruining things so? (his company, his choice – just like a woman’s body – ha!)
Why is everyone shying away from the key work in the BOC STATEMENT? CONDITIONAL PAUSE !!
#36 Ustabe on 02.01.23 at 3:38 pm
#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.01.23 at 2:47 pm
It’s amazing how quickly the supply chain issues have been solved.
And no one in Germany has frozen to death due to fuel shortage.
And the price of a head of lettuce is back to its seasonal level.
Governments and the invisible hand have worked together beautifully
And have you noticed we have gone from no one wants to work any more to massive layoffs.
————————–
On the tech and IT side.
Which was always overblown anyway.
#50 paddy
Love me some slow clap lol
In the neighborhood I’m tracking the homes that sell over ask are priced well below to spur the bids…
Almost everything is selling well below ask, and many are $100K+ under ask, or the ask has been reduced so many times that it’s $500K lower than what they started at in the Summer.
This is in west-end Toronto.
People can ask whatever they like… but, you know.
@#18 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 02.01.23 at 2:55 pm
nice to see that the laws of the universe are still at work.
The pendulum of the political scene is slowly changing back to the right as the wokey wokester’s bills come in and their policies show what they really are about.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
would have swung to the right quite sometime ago if those dopes could get their shite together.
Looks like they’re still struggling to get outta the weeds.
Maybe a couple elections from now they’ll finally get it.
It is entirely possible that there is huge deflationary potential in the current financial situation and that Canadians are not as rich and well paid as some people and markets think they are. Perhaps any pause will be short lived as the temptation to print and subsidize might be rather strong in order to stave off deflation.
A Shocking 28% Of Canadian Women Are “Completely Out Of Money”
https://kingworldnews.com/a-shocking-28-of-canadian-women-are-completely-out-of-money/
#42 ‘IHCTD9’ – not so fast! Would not the building of said shack trigger land transfer taxes – imagine what even a few square feet of DT GTA park space would be evaluated at – property taxes, ditto; empty house tax if said shelter wasn’t occupied at least six months of the year, charges for City services – you have to figure those shacks would produce waste of various kinds, all of which would have to be cleaned up for public health reasons; plus all the various rules/regs for building in the first place – permit costs, code violations, fire safety etc. All of which sounds like crazy talk, except I’d bet anyone trying to ‘occupy’ public lands would soon be buried under a mound of paperwork. Handy stuff, will be useful to act as insulation for ‘the shack’.
Or, I guess, Vlad could always nuke us. That would put Galen Weston and grocery prices in perspective.
/////////////////////////////////////////////
Hopefully that won’t happen but now that Canada is sending tanks and other war material to Ukraine. Without a vote in Parliament we have entered in to a possible world war 3. So carry on and worry about houses, markets and interest rates what could go wrong.
Powell “FED is not done”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/01/house-price-index-nationwide-tax-bank-rates-strikes/
What else would he say? The naivete on display here is interesting. – Garth
@#62 Steven Rowlandson on 02.01.23 at 5:10 pm
A Shocking 28% Of Canadian Women Are “Completely Out Of Money”
https://kingworldnews.com/a-shocking-28-of-canadian-women-are-completely-out-of-money/
++++++++++++
kingworldnews lol.
What other awesome news sources do you have lol?
#50 Paddy on 02.01.23 at 4:28 pm
I’m proud and extremely grateful to be born in Canada, but holy crap this housing thing is just getting absolutely pathetic. People are dumping all their income into a box in which one eats, sleeps and occasionally copulates. Well done Canada….slow clap.
—————
Pretty much exclusively a Canadian Metro problem. Prior to Covid, most of Canada was pretty well priced. Eventually, we’ll be there again, even here in the Southern Ontario hick towns where average prices went from 350 to 650 in under 2 years thanks to the pandemic exodus out of the GTA.
Urban Canucks bear the brunt of just about every single social and financial going concern in Canada. Pay attention kids.
So, investors remain hopeful a soft landing will happen. Not too hot. Not too cold. No recession. No big jump in the jobless rate. Just a gentle descent from the threat of a wage-price spiral or a serious downturn caused by too much Fed tightening or Republican Trumpers creating a debt ceiling crisis.
Sounds more like a prayer than a serious analysis!
But the stark reality is that “no recession” could only be the result of us digging our hole deeper which would make things even worse later.
We are not heading to a wall, we’re already in the wall, and change will not be painless.
*IF * this was a “bottom” and prices magically start to climb in this rate environment. We will likely see an increase in potential buyers leaving our major cities, as there will be little opportunity for them to buy into the market.
The ship is so far from shore already.
the only folks left will be “investors” trading their tulips.
my own circle of friends who got into the market over a decade ago, all have multiple properties. Those of us who waited(or couldn’t afford it) are left scratching our heads. Go figure.
The Fed and Bank of Canada by doing the .25 is stalling and keeping their fingers crossed we will have inflation and they will need to take action. They have been sitting
on their hands for 14 years and now they are wishing for a soft landing because too many are over extended a
bigger rate increase would harm too many people in Canada and the U.S. They are just prolonging the agony.
Patently untrue. The CB helped gain us an exit from the Credit Crisis, and again from Covid. It followed established global monetary policy to help stabilize the currency and rebuild the economy after those external crises. Rates might have been normalized a tad sooner in late 2021, but the aftermath of the pandemic was uncertain as we have not experienced one in a century, plus a European war erupted. Turning the Bank of Canada into a straw man for people’s bad personal decisions is beneath this blog. Sadly it is, so far, not beneath the leader of the Official Opposition. – Garth
oh strange… I thought a post was lost, and I see it now, so I said (basically) the same thing twice. anyway…
The deceptive tactics alleged in the complaint include:
Posting fake positive reviews: Roomster’s operators, with the help of Martinez, have saturated the internet with tens of thousands of four- and five-star fake reviews, which dilute negative reviews posted by real consumers, some of whom warn that many of Roomster’s listings are fake. The complaint alleges that Roomster’s operators told Martinez to take steps to make the reviews look real. For example, Shriber urged Martinez to spread out the reviews so they were “constant and random.”
Claiming to offer verified and authentic listings: Roomster misrepresents that it offers millions of “verified listings” when in fact the company does not verify listings or ensure they are legitimate and authentic. For example, the FTC’s investigation found that the company immediately accepted and published a fake listing for a fictional apartment at the same address as a U.S. Post Office commercial facility.
Using phony listings to attract paid users: Roomster has advertised on internet sites like Craigslist using fake listings that drive consumers to Roomster’s platform. Once on the site, consumers paid fees to obtain information necessary to secure the listings, only to discover that the listings didn’t even exist. In addition, after signing up for Roomster’s service, consumers complain they are often bombarded by fraudsters with more fake listings.
This action is part of the FTC’s efforts to crack down on fake and deceptive reviews. Earlier this year, online retailer Fashion Nova paid $4.2 million to settle allegations that the company blocked negative reviews of its products from being posted to its website. In 2021, the FTC put hundreds of firms on notice that they could face significant financial penalties if they use fake reviews or other deceptive endorsements to promote their products or services.
https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2022/08/ftc-states-sue-rental-listing-platform-roomster-its-owners-duping-prospective-renters-fake-reviews
“Roomster polluted the online marketplace with fake reviews and phony listings, making it even harder for people to find affordable rental housing,” said Samuel Levine, Director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection. “Along with our state partners, we aim to hold Roomster and its top executives accountable and return money to hardworking renters.”
“There is a term for lying and deceiving your customers to grow your business: Fraud. Roomster used illegal and unacceptable practices to grow its business at the expense of low-income renters and students,” said New York Attorney General Letitia James. “Unlike Roomster’s unverified listings and fake reviews, their deceptive business practices will not go unchecked. I am proud to lead this effort with the FTC to protect low-income renters and students defrauded by Roomster.”
fake reviews and listings to take millions of dollars from people struggling to find affordable housing.
roommate matching service
Roomster must face lawsuit by U.S. FTC, six states over fake reviews
By Jonathan Stempel(reuters)
https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2022/08/ftc-states-sue-rental-listing-platform-roomster-its-owners-duping-prospective-renters-fake-reviews
#41 Sail Away on 02.01.23 at 3:51 pm
Your desperation to have this crash be an attempted murder is not inconsistent with sociopathology. Please excuse the double negative.
@#67 IHCTD9 on 02.01.23 at 5:35 pm
#50 Paddy on 02.01.23 at 4:28 pm
I’m proud and extremely grateful to be born in Canada, but holy crap this housing thing is just getting absolutely pathetic. People are dumping all their income into a box in which one eats, sleeps and occasionally copulates. Well done Canada….slow clap.
—————
Urban Canucks bear the brunt of just about every single social and financial going concern in Canada. Pay attention kids.
+++++++++++++
SW ontario bunny patch says ‘hold my beer’
#66 Hmm on 02.01.23 at 5:31 pm
@#62 Steven Rowlandson on 02.01.23 at 5:10 pm
kingworldnews lol.
What other awesome news sources do you have lol?
—
Ask any question of kingworldnews and the answer will be goooooold.
Truly sad that this correction is apparently coming to an end. Take this house:
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/25217557/19-forestview-drive-dundas
Sales History
August 2019 Sold for $891000
March 2022 Listed for $1850000
January 2023, after many price drops $1350000
No major renos evident
So basically after a 25% drop in ask, the sellers will still do just fine after living here for 3.5 years
The buyers, well, good luck friends
#70 Faron on 02.01.23 at 5:55 pm
#41 Sail Away on 02.01.23 at 3:51 pm
Your desperation to have this crash be an attempted murder is not inconsistent with sociopathology. Please excuse the double negative.
——–
Your multiyear obsession with anything I do is not inconsistent with a mental disorder. Please excuse the double negative.
The housing prices (real estate and rents) will continue to rise as long as there’s demand.
Did we forget that there’s 100k people leaving GTA every year and 200k arriving and staying here?
Until we have a positive net immigration, the rents and house prices will continue to rise.
$3000/month rent for a condo, is the new normal.
$4000-$5000/month mortgage is the new reality.
You are asking “but who the hell is able to pay such money?”, well, it turns out somebody is. And I will repeat myself, as long as there are more people coming here than leaving, don’t expect the prices to go down.
The current wave of property sales just indicates how many people were waiting on the sidelines for the market to bottom. The sellers who will be forced to sell this year, aren’t gonna have a problem selling considering that 100k people need on average 30k homes to live in.
Sail Away and Faron are like Wile E Coyote and Roadrunner, I used to love that show as a kid, this is just as entertaining.
Guess which one is Coyote?
Please Garth, never let these two stop posting.
Value for the money!
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Alamo_TX/shw-nc
Canada is not functioning anymore and needs a reset in some fashion. Look at PEI, they raised property tax by the max allowed (5%) then gave a subsidy of the same amount to offset it. Hellloooo, ridiculous governing from leaders to jockey for positioning for the next election. No leadership. No hard choices.
Doesn’t the bank of Canada have to follow the us fed with their rate hikes? If the fed is signalling more rate hikes to come can the BOC really pause?
Yes, Mr. Turner, indeed.
Masses are appeased. How’ bout the realists?
Og
Don’t worry. With inflation over 6% Powell wimps out. Powell and Macklem are inept by any measure.
When similar houses in the USA are a fifth the cost of similar houses in Canada, you have paid too much and were taken to the cleaners by the real estate mob.
What else would he say? The naivete on display here is interesting. – Garth
How about, “Conditional pause”, like Tiff said not, what is implied.
Dolce Vita: If you can call what Domino’s sells is “pizza” (plasterboard + red syrup + petroleum based curd + mystery “meat”).
So true. The box tastes better!
We have been to this movie before. We know the Liberals and NDP team up to try and keep out the Conservatives. But in the end they can’t control interest rates, oil prices or the prices of homes. Investors control, those prices and right now the house deals are too fantastic in the USA to pass up. Houses going for 25k in the midwest that bring in equivalent rent to million plus dollar homes and condos. Canada’s real estate metrics have gone out the window becuase sellers for 20 years have always tacked on the commisssion costs to pass onto purchasers. That is not how it works with investors – we buy the future income streams with the lowest cash outlays, lowest operating and maintenance costs. Only stooges in Canada pay full prices to live in pressboard and vinyl on a postage stamp. Raise your standards – buy the good stuff that makes sense not the junk in Canada.
#23 WTF Exactly.
Any bounce will be short lived.
Nothing but a dead cat bounce, only to drop further and deeper.
Standby for a greater Consumer + Small Business recession.
New Karbon taxes upon taxes later this year will add ~15% to fuel bills. Thing like heat, travel will become a luxury for some. Repeat next year.
I maintain that 2020 was the test; now we will be locked in our smart cities anew and more slowly .
——
Corvid is the most amazing affliction ever. Is there anything it cannot do?
Hey I called this as Global WW3 back in Q2 2020 here.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11687675/Army-spied-lockdown-critics-Sceptics-including-Peter-Hitchens-suspected-watched.html
Army spied on lockdown critics: Sceptics, including our own Peter Hitchens, long suspected they were under surveillance. Now we’ve obtained official records that prove they were right all along
Military operatives were part of an operation that targeted politicians and high-profile journalists who raised doubts about the official pandemic response
READ MORE: Critics slam £14.9bn of ‘extraordinary waste’ on overpriced, faulty or unused pandemic-era equipment
—-
Bonus: https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/sc-vi/map-applications.php
This is an interactive map of the communities that applied to the Smart Cities Challenge. Click on the markers on the map to see more information about the communities and their applications
#74 Hmm on 02.01.23 at 6:04 pm
@#67 IHCTD9 on 02.01.23 at 5:35 pm
#50 Paddy on 02.01.23 at 4:28 pm
I’m proud and extremely grateful to be born in Canada, but holy crap this housing thing is just getting absolutely pathetic. People are dumping all their income into a box in which one eats, sleeps and occasionally copulates. Well done Canada….slow clap.
—————
Urban Canucks bear the brunt of just about every single social and financial going concern in Canada. Pay attention kids.
+++++++++++++
SW ontario bunny patch says ‘hold my beer’
———
I won’t disagree. Bunny patch is likely going to see the same problems the GTA ‘burbs did when folks started exiting Toronto proper years ago. Same issues for the same reasons.
And once again, it’ll be great for local long time home owners.
“There is a long-standing and widely-held belief that the first month of a year clearly sets the tone for markets over the course of the following eleven months.”
———-
Ah, I smell a post by Ryan!
Tiff has head faked Canadians and lulled many soon to unhappy sheep into thinking the worst is over, so not true. There’s more rate increases to come in Canada , Tiff has no choice other than to increase lockstep along with Powell. Canada is like a dog on a leash. Tiff will hike, he’s just trying manage Trudeaus poll numbers at the same time.
Unless Trudeau is looking to crash the currency. His bizarre economic behavior isn’t logical or Canada centric. This is dishonest and dangerous and likely solely political advice in origin. After all the public message to the sitting government is “Get Lost”. Powell on the other hand has assuaged the politicos but stood his ground. Smart move.
There is definitely zero chance of pause in 23. There is more pain ahead. Rates are going up, waiting only for more ugly data that the effect lag will undoubtedly show. Then again, all the smart money could be wrong and the Tiff-Trudeau team could be a genius hive, what do you think? Buy a house at over asking? Now? Are you insane?
Meanwhile stock markets are primed with optimism about a near distant future. We don’t know when the recession will hit but we’re sure it will hit hard soon enough. Stocks are looking at the recovery potential, not the current morass. Like every recession on Main Street stocks roar to life. The 80’s were a good example. The rally is expected and welcome. But, this is where commodity companies like Teck.b and energy ETFs are ripping higher on the China story and sinking cash into real estate is a mugs game. TINA says go. Don’t be a chicken.
#63 Linda on 02.01.23 at 5:22 pm
#42 ‘IHCTD9’ – not so fast! Would not the building of said shack trigger land transfer taxes – imagine what even a few square feet of DT GTA park space would be evaluated at – property taxes, ditto; empty house tax if said shelter wasn’t occupied at least six months of the year, charges for City services – you have to figure those shacks would produce waste of various kinds, all of which would have to be cleaned up for public health reasons; plus all the various rules/regs for building in the first place – permit costs, code violations, fire safety etc. All of which sounds like crazy talk, except I’d bet anyone trying to ‘occupy’ public lands would soon be buried under a mound of paperwork. Handy stuff, will be useful to act as insulation for ‘the shack’
———
The great thing about building a shanty in a public park is that everything about it, and what goes on inside it – is totally illegal. But when a Judge declares said shack a semi-permanent fixture, all those things then become de facto legal, since no one can do anything about it! So you get to do whatever you want until the city builds you a new place to live tailored to your individual issues and designations.
You’re right, paper makes great insulation, and any government envelopes delivered to my personal shanty would be gratefully, and directly deposited into the walls, and also the wood stove. There actually is a commercial insulation made from recycled paper called “cellulose” – great R value!
#88 American House Buyer on 02.01.23 at 8:08 pm
Investors control, those prices and right now the house deals are too fantastic in the USA to pass up. Houses going for 25k in the midwest that bring in equivalent rent to million plus dollar homes and condos.
While I don’t disagree Canadians are a bunch of trusting rubes who don’t know better and yes RE in the US for the most part can be reasonable but come on, nothing is 25k.
118k for this beauty in Pine Bluff, AR. The roaches and shootouts included.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1515-W-34th-Ave-Pine-Bluff-AR-71603/76203314_zpid/
89k for this blue painted wonder in Memphis, TN. Better hope you WFH!
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1041-Randle-St-Memphis-TN-38107/42134371_zpid/
Turning the Bank of Canada into a straw man for people’s bad personal decisions is beneath this blog. Sadly it is, so far, not beneath the leader of the Official Opposition. – Garth
——————————————————-
PP has been clear that issue isn’t normal monetary policy disagreements, it was the 3rd worldish move into fiscal policy by printing $400B and giving it to Jr. to buy votes with.
The corruption from that spending hurts us in more ways than just the fact that the everyone pays for it at the grocery store.
That is how 3rd world governments destroy their currency, when the ruling party can simply order printed money, and Canada, and every other nation, needs to get back to a sound currency if it is to have real wealth creation over the long haul.
#90 TN
READ MORE: Critics slam £14.9bn of ‘extraordinary waste’ on overpriced, faulty or unused pandemic-era equipment
——————————
Well, maybe you could come up with an ALGO.
That can calculate the exact number of pandemic equipment needed for a new virus.
So that there would be no waste.
Oh, I think you would say we should not have done anything .
Just let Covid rip.
Also, waste is build into our consumer society.
Supply management makes sure that the shelves are always full.
Nobody counts the cost of the food that’s being thrown out by grocery stores and restaurants.
I think they should do a better job of forecasting their needs.
Not just charge the waste back to the costumers.
Would do wonders for bringing food inflation down.
And, of course would make Greta happy.
Nothing really makes sense. Houses are more unaffordable than ever but the bottom is in? How are average Canadian’s paying for these average homes? Will sanity ever come back to this market that we’ve said over and over again, year after year, is over priced?
Maybe it really is different this time.
@#40 Linda
“The world can use some upbeat news given all the dire headlines that pummel us on a daily basis. Less 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse & more Don’t Worry, Be Happy would be nice for a change!”
+++
Unfortunately, if Putin continues down the road less travelled.
The 4 horsemen will be very busy.
#64 Paul on 02.01.23 at 5:24 pm
Or, I guess, Vlad could always nuke us. That would put Galen Weston and grocery prices in perspective.
/////////////////////////////////////////////
Hopefully that won’t happen but now that Canada is sending tanks and other war material to Ukraine. Without a vote in Parliament we have entered in to a possible world war 3. So carry on and worry about houses, markets and interest rates what could go wrong.
/////////////////////////////////////
A vote in Parliament? Who needs such a thing in a democracy? Especially when the leading party has less than 50% of the support of the population?
With a new leader, the liberals could have that elusive majority. But the opportunist in ‘power’ would not be pleased with that outcome, I assume.
Pretty scary consequences from the status quo we now have, and will still have after the next election, while the world goes rouge around us.
When does the election reform he promised us kick in?
Wild Turkey 101 talk….
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/loblaw-no-name-prices-freeze-jagmeet-singh-173726509.html
Food inflation of 27 % apparently reported as 11.
Why would rich people in a G7 country whine about ‘small’ /as per statistics/ food prices and some ‘modest’ rent increases of 20 % in a year is a mystery to me.
Man up, ask for an increase and move on as this blog advises, all is rosy (more like ‘smell the roses’ feeling).
——————————-
Some warning on the stock market:
https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/big-short-legend-michael-burry-111211043.html
Even though I don’t fully agree with Michael Burry/the one from the big short, the guy deserves some credit.
I want him to be wrong. Can’t think of what the inflation would be in that case though.
Uncancelled history. Well said here:
https://twitter.com/douglaskmurray/status/1620452487055687681?s=46&t=pONiqsehT3JfKCNszauOww
#77 Sail Away on 02.01.23 at 6:33 pm
#70 Faron on 02.01.23 at 5:55 pm
#41 Sail Away on 02.01.23 at 3:51 pm
Narcissists (a trait of the sociopath) tend to think everyone is thinking about them all of the time.
#70 cuke and tomato picker on 02.01.23 at 5:39 pm
Absolutely.
Central banks caused this inflation. Now they play the saviors from the very mess they created with 15 years of zero rates and extremely bad monetary policies.
The credit boom was incentivized by the very CBs and their ‘purchase of securities’/in addition to the zero rates.
Now with inflation of 15-18 % reported at half that due to statistical tricks and rates of 4-5 % things are suddenly fine, inflation is beaten and CBs are the heroes?
The qualification of the current inflation as a ‘black swan’ event is untrue.
This was brewing for a decade and a half – two and completely driven by central bank policies, it was by intend, not in a response to a crisis. From Mark Carney’s times, even before that.
People with 2 eyes watching were trying to warn the masses about the inflation and were being ridiculed.
Now after this colossal failure in monetary policies with meager interest rates temporary increase things are suddenly fine and everything is under control?
I don’t think so.
Nice try but it won’t be that easy. Time will tell but in IMHO and I have been mostly right in the past inflation is just starting.
No amount of wishful thinking thinking or lies will change that.
#99 cart before horse.
Another way to look at it is: If we continue in efforts to remove the Russian Navy from Sevastopol…
No crisis is driven by personal bad decisions.
It is bad policies that drive it. Specially when incentivised.
It is like blaming the drug victims and protecting the drug supplier as the ‘problem solver’.
Let’s not try to suck and blow at the same time. Please.
Of course people made bad choices. FOMO kills. – Garth
Garth:
Would you please explain something to me?
Labour market is very tight
Ergo, companies are struggling to find competent, or any employees,
There’s a lot of young’uns quiet quitting
How does that not raise the cost of making a widget, and therefore not cause further price rises?
That’s because Germany stockpiled oil and gas reserves before the winter, as they do every year. They’re working on getting new sources, (Norway, some middle east countries) but now is not when the s*it will hit the fan. It’s next winter, when the reserves run out.
Also, like most of Europe, they had an unusually warm start to winter.
And you know they’re rationing energy, and have shut down a huge proportion of manufacturing and other businesses, right?
====================================
#10 Ponzius Pilatus on 02.01.23 at 2:47 pm
It’s amazing how quickly the supply chain issues have been solved.
And no one in Germany has frozen to death due to fuel shortage.
And the price of a head of lettuce is back to its seasonal level.
Governments and the invisible hand have worked together beautifully.
I hear Dr. Phil is quitting.
Good.
And hope that Oprah follows him.
Fake prophets.
Them both.
I am not alone in thinking the housing market still has a lot to go down. TD forecasts another 20% down for most areas of Canada. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/january-s-new-listings-hit-level-not-seen-since-the-late-90s-calgary-realty-board-1.1877999
In the meantime I am very happy renting and seeing my portfolio grow.
Despite insane food, energy and cost-of-existing prices, with stupid level taxation, nuklear war jitters, fastest rate hikes since Prince sang Purple Rain …. Turner has joined the shingle sproikers.
Clearest doom signal so far.
#103 Faron on 02.01.23 at 10:46 pm
Narcissists (a trait of the sociopath) tend to think everyone is thinking about them all of the time.
—————
Really? Another slur? Do you think I would have paid you the slightest attention if you hadn’t initiated the interaction by insulting me?
ChatGPT says:
‘A person who initiates interaction by insulting others is often considered to be rude, arrogant, and lacking in social skills. They may exhibit a sense of superiority over others and may derive pleasure from belittling or putting down others. This type of person may also struggle to form positive relationships and may have a history of conflict with those around them. Their behavior can be damaging to their reputation and may lead to difficulty in both personal and professional settings.’
You can just stop instigating and insulting, you know. I expect most people would welcome that. Give respect to get respect.
#102 Sail Away on 02.01.23 at 10:38 pm
Douglas K Murray huh? Interesting. Islamophobe, anti-immigrant, trans exclusionary op-ed writer. I pay attention to you to the degree I do because it’s not a bad idea to keep one’s eye on fash far-righties. ‘Cause, you know, They’ll stumble into banning books in schools in the name of free speech right quick. And that’s not okay.
Oh, wait, they already have.
Real estate agents have an incentive for being optimistic and raising prices if possible even if they have gone too far to the point of committing crimes against humanity under article 2 section c& d of the convention on the prevention and punishment of genocide. Gaining huge commissions regardless of the consequences to humanity and the economy has blinded them.
#102 Sail Away on 02.01.23 at 10:38 pm
Uncancelled history. Well said here:
https://twitter.com/douglaskmurray/status/1620452487055687681?s=46&t=pONiqsehT3JfKCNszauOww
——————-
Very well said indeed. Judging people who were basically in survival mode, and apologizing for them even though we couldn’t have walked a mile in their footsteps.
@#103 Faron
“Narcissists (a trait of the sociopath) tend to think everyone is thinking about them all of the time.”
+++
Well if we we’re all self appointed, back yard amateur psychologists with PHD’s in BS.
How would you describe an obsessive compulsive, paranoid meteorologist with delusions of grandeur?
“This does not mean the market’s healthy, that houses are suddenly affordable or the current situation doesn’t suck”
In my neighbourhood, houses were unaffordable and they still are today.
But I see that things have started moving. Renting is still cheaper, but people are buying.
Is this a temporary or is 1Mil the new 500? Dont know.
The house horny, debt infused orgy continues. The realtors have been right this time.
DELETED
Deadline is today for Toronto property owners to declare whether or not their homes are vacant
https://www.cp24.com/news/deadline-is-today-for-toronto-property-owners-to-declare-whether-or-not-their-homes-are-vacant-1.6256635
#70 cuke and tomato picker on 02.01.23 at 5:39 pm
The Fed and Bank of Canada by doing the .25 is stalling and keeping their fingers crossed we will have inflation and they will need to take action. They have been sitting
on their hands for 14 years and now they are wishing for a soft landing because too many are over extended a
bigger rate increase would harm too many people in Canada and the U.S. They are just prolonging the agony.
Patently untrue. The CB helped gain us an exit from the Credit Crisis, and again from Covid. It followed established global monetary policy to help stabilize the currency and rebuild the economy after those external crises. Rates might have been normalized a tad sooner in late 2021, but the aftermath of the pandemic was uncertain as we have not experienced one in a century, plus a European war erupted. Turning the Bank of Canada into a straw man for people’s bad personal decisions is beneath this blog. Sadly it is, so far, not beneath the leader of the Official Opposition. – Garth
—-
Garth, I gotta tell you, sometimes it feels like you either have someone else write these posts and/or replies, or you forget that many of us actually read this pathetic free blog on the daily.
I can’t even tell you how many times you yourself in your posts noted that low rates let people gorge on debt. And here you are ignoring selfish and greedy human behaviour saying that making BoC a “straw man for people’s bad personal decisions is beneath this blog.”
Come on Garth. Please remember we want you…no make that we need you to maintain that integrity with consistency, because there is so little of it out there.
Fact is, if you give people cheap rates they will gorge on debt, as you’ve noted. Government is people too, and they did likewise. And sure, they may have some plausible deniability because of a crisis they could not waste. But fact is, cheap rates made everyone gorge on debt till we’re pickled in it like cute and tomato says. And this was not an unforeseen consequence by the BoC when they acted. Certainly you won’t have them admitting it was the goal, but then again what was the goal of QE and low rates for 12 years?
This is just expected human behaviour, which is predicable. Always.
Broaden the prescription allowances for opioids, and guess what happens? 20 opioid deaths per day in Canada, that’s what.
Make good food expensive and bad sugar/fatty/fast food cheap and plentiful at every turn and guess what happens? More than 1 in 10 have diabetes. More than 1 in 5 don’t know they have it. 3 in 10 are pre-diabetic. 2 in 10 children are obese. Thank you policy!
Legalize weed, hard drugs and guess what happens? You think users go down or up?
Point is, bad policy exploits human tendencies. cuke and tomato here isn’t the only one who feels the policies have been bad.
How can policies be good when buying a place costs 3x more than renting the same place?
And how can you declare the housing bottom when that is still true? Here:
High Park Condo 1,279,000. 2+1 Bdrom
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/25088844/1112-1830-bloor-st-w-toronto-high-park-north
You need to toss $300,000 into this to get the keys.
Then, mortgage $1M for a $6400 monthly, 592.14 monthly maintenance and $316.67 monthly taxes, plus utilities. Let’s say $7500 total monthly after $300,000 down.
You are renting a premium luxury 2bdrm for $2662.00 per month next door.
https://www.gwlraresidential.com/apartments/on/toronto/grenadier-square-high-park-village/rentaloptions.aspx?UnitID=29303553&FloorPlanID=3395972&myOlePropertyid=1209624&MoveInDate=07/04/2023
AND…that rental is a bigger 13 x 12 ft master bedroom, not a 10 x 10 tiny room like in the $1.3m condo, and features an 21 x 11 living room, not 15 x 9 ft like the lame $1.3m condo.
Let’s be real Garth, this was all thanks to cheap money, and all thanks to the BoC, whatever the excuse.
Accommodative monetary policy was put in place to keep the economy from going over a cliff in 2009 and again in 2020. It worked. No depression. The CB’s mandate is to protect the larger economy, not to keep you from being an idiot and using 20x leverage to buy something you cannot afford. We all love to excuse our behaviors saying, ‘He made me do it.” But that is shallow, pointless and, yes, a total cop-out. – Garth
Elon Musk eliminated 90% of the Twitter staff with no deterioration in services…..Maybe we should try this approach with all of our governments….
#109 Ponzie
I hear Dr. Phil is quitting.
Good.
And hope that Oprah follows him.
Fake prophets.
Them both.
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Great news.
Those TV Land pseudo intellectuals were nothing but shills for pop culture nonsensical gibberish.
They have been pulling the wool over the eyes of American rubes for decades.
Now, maybe there will be room for REAL heroes bringing the truth to all!
Like Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson
#113 Faron on 02.02.23 at 1:42 am
#102 Sail Away on 02.01.23 at 10:38 pm
I pay attention to you to the degree I do because…
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Consider lithium.
Until then, thank God for the ACME Corporation.
Beep Beep!
Accommodative monetary policy was put in place to keep the economy from going over a cliff in 2009 and again in 2020. It worked. No depression. The CB’s mandate is to protect the larger economy, not to keep you from being an idiot and using 20x leverage to buy something you cannot afford. We all love to excuse our behaviors saying, ‘He made me do it.” But that is shallow, pointless and, yes, a total cop-out. – Garth
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Garth, I totally get what you’re saying.
You have abs. You’re chiseled. You’re charming.
These things are not free. They require work and discipline, which you apply accordingly. Even to being charming.
However, majority of humanity doesn’t have discipline. And as many of your posts noted, work ethic is going away too.
I used to blame the individual too. However, I’m starting to change my view on this. The willpower of the individual is only so strong, and corporations and policy alike test it and push it daily, aiming to chip away at it, to find the weakness.
When everything is being done by powers above you to crack your willpower, eventually many will crack Garth. It’s just a fact, and you know it.
You may be doing 500 situps a day to show off a 6-pack each time you walk your dog, but…McDonald’s now delivers! At any time of the day, 24 hours a day. Just a few clicks on the app from your sofa and they’ll come to you. 2-can-dine coupons come in the mail right to your door too. Make sure you get those combos with a Diet Coke to not gain weight.
When large corporate interest with huge resources hire hundreds of scientists to make their food more addictive subconsciously making your crave it, so they can sell more, is it right to blame one single individual for not having enough willpower to resist these incredible powers and efforts? Perhaps yes, but also, perhaps maybe not?
Who says a hockey game should be interrupted by a McDonald’s, Tims and gambling ad every 4 minutes Garth? I stopped watching NHL “Canadian Past-time” hockey because of this insanity. I don’t need my kids programmed by this professional sport addiction machine.
When for years on end you hear stories of houses doubling and tripling and more and more and more, you can either stand on the sideline…or…you can gorge on debt and brag about it yourself until you too can eventually tell your friends about a condo you own that can be rented for 1/3 the price of owning.
When weed is legal, you can maintain a pure temple that is your 6-pack body, firm pecks and glutes , and a sharp mind not clouded by drugs. Or you can step into a store on every block and get some and just veg on your sofa. EVERYONE IS DOING IT! Chill Bro…chill.
I hear what you’re saying Garth. I really do. But that CB’s mandate to protect the larger economy came at a price of fluffing debt to the extreme, as a policy. On purpose. Debt never got reduced here – as you often point out too. They leveraged debt to protect the economy, but what is the end game of that? No one has the answer to this. Just kick it down the can to the next politician voted in…good luck to them!
Good policy? I hardly think so.
Snippets – WSJ
-“Certainty is just not appropriate here,” Mr. Powell said. “I’m not going to try to persuade people to have a different forecast, but our forecast is that it will take some time and some patience, and that we’ll need to keep rates higher for longer.” (JP)
-“The Fed is focused on the last mile, and so far, there has not been enough evidence of a slowdown that will get inflation down to 2%,” said Kristin Forbes, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.
-Ray Farris, chief economist at Credit Suisse, said the Fed is likely to continue to signal it will hold rates at a higher level for longer than the market expects to prevent inflation from picking up again or settling at an uncomfortably high level. That posture could reflect officials’ regret, in retrospect, at waiting too long to withdraw reservoirs of stimulus in the second half of 2021, he said. “They have to live with the perception that they blew it. And they can’t blow it on the way down,” said Mr. Farris.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/45-with-variable-mortgages-say-they-would-have-to-sell-in-under-9-months-yahoomaru-poll-110037392.html
Avalanche of listings coming?
DELETED
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-goose-falls-as-economic-woes-china-spur-outlook-cut-1.1878418
Canada goose going Dodo bird!!!
Hello, Blackberry calling!
I thought it was meep meep!
HUge news from the US!!!
514K NFP!!! More rates hikes are on the way!.
BOC will have to eat crow.
Elon the Exceptional is willing and able to make all true believers rich. Keep the faith.
TSLA +80% in one month. Oh my.
#131 Sail Away on 02.03.23 at 11:06 am
Elon the Exceptional is willing and able to make all true believers rich. Keep the faith.
TSLA +80% in one month. Oh my.
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This result has the image of a Coyote running off a cliff with his legs spinning running through my head.
meep meep!