Let’s take a break from all the generational bleating, moaning, blaming and shaming to visit a normal person. Like Rob. And he’s happy.
“Just thought I would check in to say thanks for all the free guidance you provide,” he says, in a refreshing moment of contentment. “Sometimes the proof is in the numbers and I thought I would share mine with you. I took ALL the proceeds from the house sale (it was paid for) and invested it.”
Seriously. Rob eschewed buying another house six years ago and chinked it all into a balanced and diversified portfolio. “Almost a million bucks. I rebalance twice a year. Reinvested all dividends. Haven’t taken a dime out.”
In 2020 my wife asked: “what do we do?” I said:”Garth says do nothing”… Last year my wife asked: “What do we do?” I said: Garth says do nothing.” And that’s exactly what we did…nothing. Nothing but watch it grow. See the attached results. Thank you Garth. Thank you, thank you, thank you….
Well, below is the chart he sent me. The cumulative gain is close to 70%, and the annualized performance is 8.58%. Could Rob & his squeeze have done better sinking the cash into a new property and using some leverage to crank things up? Maybe so, depending on location. But by following this path he has the better part of $2 million, all liquid, throwing off income and no need to worry about cashing out in an iffy housing market. No realtors, No listing. No staging. No showings. No rapacious commission. No vultching buyers. No moving.
One blog dog’s tale: Do nothing, make money
Why relate this? Because R did the san e thing. He ignored the noise. In 2020 that included the Covid meltdown – the fastest retreat ever into a bear market. As we predicted, it passed. Quickly. In 2022 he ignored Putin, inflation and the CB. More noise. The portfolio swooned for a while, then recovered. It always does. Until the world stops growing (which will be never), financial markers will edge higher over time. The noise fades. The steady player wins.
Now, where are we? What next? Is this s strategy to hang on to in 2023? Or are we lurching towards a hard landing like all the Internet guru-smarties flogging gold and crypto swear is coming?
Two words. Soft landing.
This is the holy grail. Such an event happens when an economy cools enough to stem rapid price increases and wage pressures (inflation) without throwing oodles of people out of work and trashing business investment (recession). With each day that passes, we inch closer to this reality. Consider this…
The Canadian economy, we heard Tuesday, is chilling nicely. Growth of 2.9% in the third quarter dropped to 1.6% in the final months of 2022 as those aggressive interest rate hikes bit. This is pretty much what Bank of Canada boss Tiff Macklem had to say last week when he suggested the rate hiking orgy was over. Our CB was the first major one in the world to pivot. Now you know why. If we have a slowdown in the coming months, it will be shallow, tepid and something Rob can easily ignore.
“The BoC can feel comfortable keeping its policy on cruise control,” says a TD economist. And it will. Adds BMO’s Doug Porter: “The overriding message is that the economy is just managing to keep its head above water, which squarely fits with the BoC’s view.” Yup, Tiff nailed it.
Second, things are looking up across the global economy, despite the crazies in Russia and China. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) just upped its growth forecast for the planet to 2.9% this year
Says its chief economist: “Around the world, you see labor markets that have been quite resilient; household consumption that has been stronger than expected and business investment. You put all this together, and you have a slightly more resilient global economy. We’re expecting things to bottom out.”
No recession, it concludes. But that could change if the Trumpers in Congress cause a debt ceiling crisis later in 2023. Odds of that happening: same as Harry Styles staying famous.
That brings us to reason three, America. It’s fine.
Tomorrow the Fed makes its latest rate pronouncement and investors are betting on a weensy, piddling little 25 basis points followed – as in Canada – by a pause. Maybe there’ll be a further quarter point bump in March, but this baby is winding down fast. Many even believe, as we told you last week, rates could be rolled back by a half-point or so at the end of 2023.
Also, no recession in the States. Growth modest, but positive. Like me. Like Rob.
Keep your stick on the ice.
About the picture: “I’ve enjoyed your blog for a number of years. Thanks to you I have a nice B&D I don’t worry about,” writes Jim (who’s also happy). As an additional suck up, attached is a picture of my Springer Gus surveying his kingdom.”
123 comments ↓
The problem is that there are so many shitty options for renters. I have well over 6 figures invested and I’m renting a crappy overpriced apartment. It costs 3K for a decent two bedroom apt in Vancouver.
If Canada follows the United States in home price adjustments, Fannie Mae is predicting home prices to continue falling throughout 2023 and 2024, to the tune of another 6.7%. Where does that leave Canada? It leaves us in a watch and go state, what happens there, will happen to a lesser or greater degree this side of the border, keep in mind, Canadians and Americans are glued at the hips.
There are plenty of buyers, but the buyers are not willing to fork over those still sky-high ridiculous home prices, something has got to give, will it be the sellers or the buyers. “Yes”, there will always be the exception, it’s your money should you choose to get caught up into it.
There are some bidding runs in the housing markets right now in Canada, but I am not sold on anything that will hold in sales or prices, we are not out of the woods yet, it is a great big think tank.
As for the markets for myself, they have come too far too quickly for me to be relaxed, there will be pull-backs, keep some cash, watch for the head winds. Be cautious, do not get too big for your breeches, think little by little, if you run for the big one, it is called a big disappointment most of the time. Good quality ETF’s will weather the storm just fine, steady as she goes.
If you end up seeing a 2-3% inflation before year end, it is only possible one way, playing with the numbers and formula, reality is not in the cards to reach such lows in 2023.
I agree with the softer landing over a recession, it will sting us Canucks but the scars will eventually go away.
There will most likely be a ¼% bump in rates tomorrow by the US Feds, with potentially two more hikes to follow, the Feds need to see that 5% ceiling before the foot comes off the pedal. Do we have de-risking happening? Why are we seeing flows out of equities into higher quality parts of the US market’s such as fixed income, these are strange times with few answers my friends.
It is called go west young man, apparently about 6% of us are not happy and have enough baggage in the pipes, we are looking for greener pastures elsewhere in Canada.
With 54% of Canadians now living paycheck to paycheck and 79% of us saying our finances have worsened since the Pandemic runaway inflation, there must be a lot of unhappy supper hours in a large percentage of households in this country.
Ontario Pension fund has stopped investing, at least for now into China Assets, what message is there or not there for the markets, their fund is nothing to sneeze at, it is a 242 billion fund, we are told it is a geopolitical risk, (I would love to see that statement formula broken down).
Popular thrill memories since 1985: Kids and adults alike travelled from far and wide to experience the Mindbender roller coaster at Galaxy-land in the West Edmonton Mall, it was a landmark, but those childhood experiences for many have come to an end as it gets dismantled and shelved into memory lane.
Quote: Only you can do it, if what makes us happy is different from what we have now, then we must either change once and for all, or stay as we are, feeling even more unhappy
I was happy until my dentist appt. today
Sickle probes, scalers, saliva ejectors, polishers, sunglasses….uhhhgg….if I HAD any secrets I would have told them ALL to the hygienist…just stop medieval torture!
I was there for 30mins just for them to say “looks good! See ya in 6 months for another cleaning”…in other words, I’ve bought a boat, so I’m gonna bring you in more frequently to help pay for it.
Good thing there was a pot shop, liquor store, beer store, grocery store (that sold beer and wine) and a cigar shop close by…
Now, I’m happy again!
Og
I did something similar to Rob. Sold my place in 2017 and invested gains (topped up RRSP, TFSA and remainder in NR). Every time I got the urge to dive back into the RE market, I’d consult the Turner Oracle and stay the course. Happy I did and grateful for the advice.
Been on an anti-car kick. For 25 years. Yes, have one, but living arranged around walking and the “15 minute” city, way before that became a thing.
I see everyone now has a car. Or two or three. Nobody does the math.
I’m the second generation in my family tree to drive. Eons we have done without cars, now we need one to keep both the auto industry and the government alive.
“NotJustBikes” on YouTube gets it. Worth watching. For living and lifestyle, not big house, cars and debt.
Nice try, Garth and Tiff. But you don’t have my office colleagues fooled. Oh no, they foresee a financial apocalypse any day now.
And how to play it? Well, buy MORE RE.
Lord take the wheel because I don’t have the strength.
Investment property ok but if that was his primary residence then he would be renting. So “no moving” is a wish at best and not everyone has the luxury to just pick up and move.
Garth, just catching up on your recent blog entries. Saw your Bitcoin comments from a couple days ago. What gives Bitcoin value is what it allows you to do. People are sending billion dollar transactions in minutes for the cost of $4. That’s very valuable and cannot be done at such low expense through the traditional finance system.
And Bitcoin is permissionless and peer to peer, no bank or other third party or gatekeeper involved that can delay/prevent it/screw it up. This is possible because of Bitcoin’s decentralized nature.
The Bitcoin supply has a low inflation rate, currently about 1.5% annually, that is cut in half every four years, so the value of a Bitcoin cannot be inflated away like fiat currency is.
Many people make the pointless argument that Bitcoin has no value because it doesn’t produce anything; however, Bitcoin is currency and its value can only be judged in that context.
The evidence is against your claim that Bitcoin is going to zero. The price has been trending strongly upwards since inception. Yes, it is very volatile with steep pullbacks, but the overall trend is up. And it does protect you from inflation, not necessarily over a one-year period, but over a multi-year period it has been extremely effective. It’s been the best performing asset by miles since its inception, it’s not even close. Everyone knows that investing in the stock market helps you beat inflation, but not necessarily over a period of one or two or a few years. General rule of thumb is to avoid stocks unless you have at least a 5-year investing horizon. Bitcoin shouldn’t be judged any differently, that would be inconsistent and wouldn’t make sense.
Better still, don’t own any. Nobody should who cares about capital preservation. – Garth
I’m a firm believer in that sometimes “doing nothing” is a valid option.
But many investors go by “don’t just stand around, do something”.
Only Greater Fools rush in.
A quick google of the news.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/the-most-likely-scenario-is-a-recession-on-the-horizon-in-the-u-s-and-canada-economist~2619783
How do we know for sure wben the experys are divided.
Another news feed says US consumer confidence ticking lower.
Credit card balances increasing. And consumer spending now falling.
Have debt levels eased.
I guess we will have to wait to find out.
Another articles expect oil to go to$95 – $110 with China reopening.
Does anyone really know what is going on below the iceberg?
Why all the guesses? What happens will be apparent soon enough.
Russia taking more ground.
Nothing wrong with being hopeful but sometimes reality over rides.
Weird that you would ignore the consensus of expert economists and link to an outlier. Seems a comment on you, not reality. – Garth
Imagine you spent tens of millions to build a building then your tech tenants bailed.
Happens every time inexperienced try to play the game.
Good to read that those that kept the faith over the past few years were rewarded. Nice write-up about Rob and well done Rob, indeed.
If tomorrow the US Fed also reports a higher US GDP forecast for 2023 along with a low rate increase, I expecting a euphoric Mr. Market. Dec 2022 they were projecting 0.5% growth in 2023 (see Table 1):
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20221214.pdf
and a 2023 US Fed rate of 5.1%. If they lower that project, euphoria for certain.
I believe the “analysts” have underestimated their GDP forecasts late last year incl. the US Fed. Great that the IMF said so today. We’ll see tomorrow.
I’m reading that Insurance Companies are denying coverage for vehicles that are on the high theft list.
Could the burning EVs be next?
Yogism #40: “Stick it out, and you’ll receive a pass on financial penalties and seasonal losses”.
Almost exact situation, similar amounts. Have infrequently taken small amounts for taxes and income supplement.
B&D portfolio attenuates the declines. Hitting singles, not swinging for the fences works for us. Avg gain 7% over 10 yrs. A partner with a similar mindset certainly makes a difference.
Renting for much less than price to income/rent.
Have no idea what groceries/gas/ cost, oblivious to financial stress.
Started in my 20’s saving, didn’t make an above average wage, lots of sacrifice, took courses and improved my employment situation/income. now? decumulation phase commencing.
Personally gratifying to have plans validated by time and data.
Your blog has been invaluable (obligatory MSU!)
Avoid the Stress Test
News items say the stress test can be avoided by getting your mortgage from a credit union (they can, but do not have to impose it, most don’t).
If a prospective buyer figures they can handle the contract 5 year interest rate why not avoid the stress test if they can’t make it?
Unless the credit union interest rates are materially higher than the ones with stress test, it’s a go.
Avoid the stress test and take a 5 year fixed rate and you’re off to the races.
Cue, gnashing of teeth and outrage.
Canada GDP fine Garth. Forget about these quarterly, monthly annualized numbers.
The 2.9% you stated was the CORRECT number not the 1.6% (yes, yes, it’s slowing down a bit – I get it).
———–
LA GRANDE IMAGE
GDP. $ x 1,000,000. All industries.
Jan 2022 = 2,018,199
Nov 2022 = 2,077,188
Change = +2.92%
Annualized Change = +3.19% *
THREE decimal ONE NINE PERCENT.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610043401
* Hey, if they want to annualize to 1.6% for a quarter, I can do the same – ‘cept the optimists version for the year.
——————
PS: Cdn Banks still in the ‘ve 1Y abyss returns BUT heck, what a start for them in 2023, YTD:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=YTD
Cdn Financials hole … less deep. And that’s a good thing.
Better still, don’t own any. Nobody should who cares about capital preservation. – Garth
******************************
Again, your claim is contradicted by all the evidence which you’re ignoring.
The BIS doesn’t agree with you. They recently issued guidance that banks can hold 2% of assets in crypto: https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d545.pdf
The world’s biggest asset managers Blackrock and Fidelity also don’t agree with you:
https://financefeeds.com/blackrock-makes-bitcoin-eligible-investment-to-15b-fund/
https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/overview
Most people don’t have billions and cannot absorb your play money losses. – Garth
We still have wage inflation especially from government employees. So not sure if inflation is under control.
Federal Union wants 47% wage increase over 3 years. And CRA employees want 30%. I feel like I am living in George Orwell’s 1984. Some pigs are definitely more equal than others. Not sure how T2 selfieboy will deal with his unions.
The California Commie Virus will work its way North..
If one does an overview….what will unfold is a toxic brew of rationing various resources(ie water, power…)….high taxes and drumm roll…Class Warfare.
Once such agenda is the literal and figurative extinction of SFH. California rules and regs re: NEW housing are uber- draconian. It is near impossible to build new.
They now seek to densify existing SFH neighbourhoods which to the leftie- loonies is all good…when all it does is increase property values to the point SFH owners will be forced to sell…and the new construction will be even more UNaffordable whether it be via purchase price or rent.
Once you create strata ???….you effectively have Communism masked as ” democracy. ”
Be careful what you wish for…
DELETED
For the trailing 7 years (Feb 2016) I’m also sitting at a nice 8.5% annualized ROR.
Just over a year ago my trailing 7 years was 11.1% annualized, but then the debacle of 2022 hit! The longer term play still has me in a comfortable spot.
Never made any big moves. A few minor reweightings, and always kept up with my payroll contributions.
As always — “Time in the market, not timing the market”.
#10 DON on 01.31.23 at 2:30 pm
A quick google of the news.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/the-most-likely-scenario-is-a-recession-on-the-horizon-in-the-u-s-and-canada-economist~2619783
How do we know for sure wben the experys are divided.
Another news feed says US consumer confidence ticking lower.
Credit card balances increasing. And consumer spending now falling.
Have debt levels eased.
I guess we will have to wait to find out.
Another articles expect oil to go to$95 – $110 with China reopening.
Does anyone really know what is going on below the iceberg?
Why all the guesses? What happens will be apparent soon enough.
Russia taking more ground.
Nothing wrong with being hopeful but sometimes reality over rides.
Weird that you would ignore the consensus of expert economists and link to an outlier. Seems a comment on you, not reality. – Garth
***********
Could be Garth but there were other articles also that I did not provide the link to. But could also be a comment on bloomberg news and the rest of media not providing a clear analysis from the expert economists. Who are the experts I should be listening to? I will read them daily. I have a quench for the truth and will look under every rock to find all the validated pieces of the puzzle.
The reality is that necessities have not come down in price. The rate of change has, but finances are still stretched. Last year the thought reality was that inflation was transitory and the Ukraine war would be over by December. Yes facts change but sometimes even the experts have trouble predicting the future given all the variables and their own recency bias. We are all human.
I remain fuild in thought and open to new data to ensure my bias is limited for my own good. Something I learned in my science studies is to ensure my measurement tools are calibrated to zero prior to any data taking.
It looks like we will get through this inflation mess without too much pain. But lets not stimulate the economy while at the same time shutting down productive capacity at the same time again.
Also the government has got to find a better communication strategy on vaccines. Name calling people who are reluctant to get vaccines does not work. If people can be convinced to waste money on bottled water when the alternative is almost free healthy tap water why can’t we convince them to do something that makes sense?
#146 Humble on 01.30.23 at 9:21 pm
«»Oh yeah, about the kids, maybe it’s time for the snowbird population to just up and leave Canada permanently. Give your kids the house, the two of you fly to a sunny destination like Thailand, where cheap really is cheap «»
Awesome idea if the tax rules would be adjusted and the CRA would make clear the criterias for “ties to Canada” as a Canadian resident for tax purposes.Else the said snowbirds would incur a massive tax bill on exit.
As a side note this goes for jobs as well bring down the full retirement age to 60( no Full time job allowed ) and the younger generations will have all of those jobs to move into.
#13 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.31.23 at 2:33 pm
I’m reading that Insurance Companies are denying coverage for vehicles that are on the high theft list.
Could the burning EVs be next?
=================================
Ouch…
Felicity Ace (EV) disaster 2022
https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a39652509/felicity-ace-manifest-list/
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/insurance/fire-burns-a-hole-in-shipping-s-9-2bn-insurance-claims-bill/2-1-1359239
https://www.ctif.org/news/burning-ship-carrying-lithium-ev-cars-sank-outside-azores
This happened almost a year ago.
The loss (many Hi- end and Rare vehicles) was around $1/2 Billion dollars as the ship sank.
An investigation by the shipping line has made them BAN “EV” shipping.
Also…I’ve never seen so many fires being reported on the news…..that also challenge the firefighters given the fires intensity.
My suspicion is these are the rechargeable ( lithium) batteries….(which VFD has admitted created many fires)…..but they don’t want this growing certifiable danger to upset the ” green agenda “.
Let’s see how this shakes down with actuaries and their analysis.
November Canadian GDP grew at 0.1%, and in December is likely to be flat. However, population growth in 2022 is going to be over 2%. Soft landing, sure for some, maybe even the majority. But some will get hurt because the economy just didn’t well enough once you account for population growth.
The results of the graph seems a little strange to me.
Garth indicated on this blog in the end of year summary that a B+D decreased by nearly 10% this past year. In the past few months has this loss been completely eliminated? Not for most people for sure.
The graph indicates that Rob is now well over his July 2022 low and he has recovered well above the level of Feb. 2022. Huge gains since July 2022. No 8-10% loss for the year. Must either not be a B+D or he must be adding much $$$ to the account as the year has gone on.
ory last night the The Australian Reserve Bank is expected to raise rates four more times before August.
Sounds ominous, but with the current rate being 3.1, if the are all just 0.25, then they won’t even catch up to Canada’s current rate.
Let the other countries do the heavy lifting and just sneak along behind.
She’ll be right, mate…
M48BC
Retire without debt, property taxes, special levies, strata assessments and fees – just rent in Canada and buy cheap investment homes in the USA to collect USA rent dollars every month. Buy 20-50 USA homes for a million dollars instead of just one in Canada.
That chart is probably wishful thinking, markets are some halfway off from ’21 peak. I don’t think even rebalancing perfectly at 2020 lows explains it, everything was in the dumps, ZPR as at 5$.
That or the investments aren’t passive ETFs and some degree of lucky stock picks.
My YoY average was 5ish%, ignoring falling knife year of 2022.
#8 Informed Investor on 01.31.23 at 2:26 pm
Bitcoin shouldn’t be judged any differently, that would be inconsistent and wouldn’t make sense.
Better still, don’t own any. Nobody should who cares about capital preservation. – Garth
==========================
It never ceases to amaze me the naivety of BitCoin fans…
I just hope they haven’t bet the farm…their offspring… and vital organs etc. etc. ….on what is simply another Ponzi scheme.
The End
#1 ‘Dave’ – so find somewhere better. As a renter you can change your digs without listing, staging, engaging a realtor, keeping the place super tidy for showings etc. Or if your digs are indeed ‘crappy’, maybe approach the LL & see whether you can do some things to freshen up your surroundings in return for a break on that ‘overpriced’ abode. Oh wait, let me guess – not going to spend any $ fixing up a place you don’t own? Seriously, a good paint job & some new curtains aren’t that expensive & can make a heck of a difference without you blowing the budget. Just be sure to get permission to paint etc. & take before & after photos to prove your ‘improvements’ didn’t make a ‘crappy’ place even more so.
Ah that is the shits!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-30/china-s-property-stocks-slump-as-home-sales-fall-during-holiday?leadSource=uverify%20wall&fbclid=IwAR0ZurAK9RQxtIkQdpdPygz_UxQNjlcj2bu-e-S1GR-lBJJK1Uo-pF_IB0s
#5 Another Deckchair
I’m glad that you’re able to live in a place where someone else does the driving for you. Last time I looked, organic apples didn’t sprout little organic legs and walk to the veggie store on West 10th.
At least thank the people who drive so you don’t have to.
Remember this:
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-economy-fed-dallas-idUKN2624719220070926
There was going to be a soft landing looking forward from Sept 26, 2007, as well.
The opinion of one staff economist at one regional bank. Funny. How hard did you have to Google for that? Just admit fear. It’s faster. — Garth
#28 yvr_lurker on 01.31.23 at 3:16 pm
The results of the graph seems a little strange to me.
Garth indicated on this blog in the end of year summary that a B+D decreased by nearly 10% this past year. In the past few months has this loss been completely eliminated? Not for most people for sure.
Yep my 2022 ended -10% as well so calling that out.
Rob is a lucky man. I wish we could all be that lucky.
It’s not luck. – Garth
No problem — I admit fear. I am still invested, but I am fearful that we under appreciate the magnitude of these rate hikes and QT on the average household. I saw a talking head the other day pleased that credit card use was up because that meant people were optimistic about the future, in his opinion!!
—————————————–
#36 Brett in Calgary on 01.31.23 at 3:44 pm
Remember this:
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-economy-fed-dallas-idUKN2624719220070926
There was going to be a soft landing looking forward from Sept 26, 2007, as well.
The opinion of one staff economist at one regional bank. Funny. How hard did you have to Google for that? Just admit fear. It’s faster. — Garth
The Canadian economy, we heard Tuesday, is chilling nicely. Growth of 2.9% in the third quarter dropped to 1.6% in the final months of 2022 as those aggressive interest rate hikes bit. This is pretty much what Bank of Canada boss Tiff Macklem had to say last week when he suggested the rate hiking orgy was over. Our CB was the first major one in the world to pivot. Now you know why. If we have a slowdown in the coming months, it will be shallow, tepid and something Rob can easily ignore.
Rob can ignore the slowdown because he doesn’t own a house and doesn’t have a mortgage. Let’s look at the glass half full. A balanced diversified portfolio does not depend on the selling price of other houses in the neighbourhood. It does not require realtors, listing. staging, showings, commission, moving. There is no mortgage which resets dependent on the terms of the mortgage. One more thing: the portfolio doesn’t depend on zoning which the Province of Ontario has just removed from municipal authority.
Garth you owe Doug Ford and the opposition leaders. Maybe a wine and cheese.
Households net savings are evaporating (fast, for example the number is 37% last year in Quebec).
Incomes are higher, but spending is rising even more, in part due to inflation but also due to the different levels of voracious governments collecting more money than ever (despite becoming ever more incompetent, incapable of doing anything, which is why they hire consultants…).
The most productive part of the population is retiring in droves and their skills can in no way be replaced by immigration. Take into account manpower and capital sucking public sector, crazy regulation, massive labour shortages and Canada is becoming almost uninvestable.
Despite high taxes our health care system is crumbling, schools are producing generations of functionally illiterates and the best are quickly seeking the exit!
But at least we have CMHC, the bank cartel (and a bunch of other cartels) and real estate to turn things around…
RE: #13 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.31.23 at 2:33 pm
I’m reading that Insurance Companies are denying coverage for vehicles that are on the high theft list.
Could the burning EVs be next?
=======================================
Not likely since ICE cars are more likely to catch fire than EVs…
Insurance companies look at facts. Not oil company sponsored “news”…
Disclaimer: I have two ICE vehicles and have never owned nor even driven an EV yet.
“It’s not luck. – Garth”
—–
I meant purchasing his house in the first place. How could he have foreseen this one asset being worth so much? The portfolio growth, of course, has nothing to do with luck, right?
Way to go Rob. Doing very well. We’ve been investing in an Income Fund over at the bank with the Penguins since selling a second property in 2017. Not taking any income out and ontinuously re-investing in the fund. I’ve seen a 7.8 percent plop in our overall net worth in 2022. TN(Man)atTB says we’re doing well overall and is quite reassuring. Seeing Rob’s results, I’m not so sure. Considering a switch to safety as replacing the value lost is difficult as retirement nears.
Why would anyone own BTC?
Just buy QQQ or a few of the most speculative tech stocks which perform pretty much the same as BTC but at least have real businesses behind them.
The BTC true believers will never see that though, the cult of this thing created (and copied ad nauseum) out of thin air is something super special.
As long as rates come down the most speculative junk will go up, and that describes BTC to a ‘T’.
Way to go Rob. It is over time that you see the benefits of this consistent approach pay off. I recently shared the data from our financial growth dating back to 2000. We didn’t eschew real estate altogether, but did downsize houses in 2019/2020 and that catapulted our financial freedom. I can now work part-time (now that the pandemic load is over). It is great.
https://www.looniedoctor.ca/2023/01/13/net-worth/
I am also grateful to Garth for first introducing me to the ETF-based approached before I blew my portfolio up. I am still not perfectly behaved (in constrast to Rob), but definitely improving. I also recently reviewed my investing journey and goal setting.
https://www.looniedoctor.ca/2023/01/20/financial-goals/
I think that people seeing how this can work with real life stories helps. Thanks for sharing Ron’s story and I hope that mine also adds to it. Yes, I am a physician with physician income, but the principles are the same.
-LD
fantastic returns!
wish my B&D portfolio was even half of that… my FA is barely at break even since 2014. very disappointed right now.
great January though…
Garth, you are doing a great job with the free financial education. My portfolio is also doing well. I treat it as my second job because I love growing the monthly cash flow, love the dividend raises, and the primary job is now optional, although it is hard to ditch the golden cuffs.
What would be your advice to those of us tempted by a real estate rental? Are we buying a headache?
The market rebound in January!!
#28 yvr_lurker on 01.31.23 at 3:16 pm
The results of the graph seems a little strange to me.
Garth indicated on this blog in the end of year summary that a B+D decreased by nearly 10% this past year. In the past few months has this loss been completely eliminated?
*************************************
Markets are up bigly in January wiping out a significant chunk of the 2022 losses.
VBAL is up 4.8% in January
The Toronto stock index is up 7.1%
S&P 500 is up 6.2%
Add a bit more for dividends and interest and the interest on VBAL.
An epic start to the year really.
Global catastrophe is coming very soon.
There will be no “soft landing” for nukes.
The Doomsday Clock is now in its worst position ever, 90 seconds to midnight.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/2023-doomsday-clock-1.6724181
This is 10 seconds closer than just two years ago. The worst EVER.
Russia is mobilizing up to 500,000 troops to throw at Ukraine.
https://nypost.com/2023/01/06/russia-may-call-up-another-500k-troops-ukraine-official/
Russia has said that the West providing all those tanks is the equivalent of a nuclear escalation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/25/russia-fumes-at-wests-decision-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine.html
Do not be deluded by what may seem like a lull in the depths of winter. Horror is just around the corner.
Iran, North Korea and China are rapidly calculating what benefits they would gain by challenging the current world order and joining in with Russia.
Enjoy the comfort today of heat inside your home in winter. This amenity will not last long.
PREPARE
Most people don’t have billions and cannot absorb your play money losses. – Garth
————————————-
Garth, the losses you describe are imaginary for long-term Bitcoin holders. Bitcoin has been an amazing inflation hedge if held for several years. Bitcoin has outperformed every other asset by miles since inception.
And the BIS would not recommend banks hold up to 2% of their assets in “play money”.
The evidence does not support your claims that Bitcoin isn’t an inflation hedge, that it will go to zero, and that its price is backed by nothing.
Of course it is backed by nothing. And will, eventually assume its full value. – Garth
#48 Blog Bunny on 01.31.23 at 5:02 pm
What would be your advice to those of us tempted by a real estate rental? Are we buying a headache?
————————-
You’re kidding right? I read this blog daily, and cannot believe the comments about how landlords are the enemy. Trust me, 99 percent of your tenants will hate you no matter what you do for them. I literally know of dozens of rentals sitting vacant (mine included), or used as bnb rentals because no one in their right mind would want to rent to a long term tenant. These advocates for for tenant rights have done nothing but remove thousands of rental units from the market. Until someone restores the landlord’s right to evict a bad tenant, it’s a losing preposition.
I swear you people have all lost your minds.
Read the comments.
GDP rising at 1%, but Fed workers want at least 30% over 3 years.
Am I missing something?
You don’t think there is a massive wealth transfer to the risk averse in this country in the last 30 years?
There has to be a reason that our dollar has fallen versus our neighbours to the south despite the rise in commodity prices.
More taxes on the horizon and young people can’t afford houses and you dingledorfs can’t figure out what the problem is?
Dumb as stumps.
#48 Blog Bunny on 01.31.23 at 5:02 pm
What would be your advice to those of us tempted by a real estate rental? Are we buying a headache?
——–
Yes, rentals are a headache. But they do allow access to lots of leverage.
Consider REITs. Read this:
https://uproarcapital.substack.com/p/why-ill-never-own-investment-real
re: Our CB was the first major one in the world to pivot.
not a pivot
a hold
That’s a pivot. – Garth
American house buyer….so been reading your posts for a while now….can you list all these $20k to $50k houses that I can buy in America, and what these rents are? Time to put up or shut up…even the dumps and abandoned houses IN Detroit are 100k and have no pipes as the houses have long ago been stripped. TIA
There is no free lunch. Remember that.
Information is served when it serves an agenda. And for that it is cherrypicked. And adorned with disclaimers. And the risks are generally borne by one side, while the other is hedging.
For instance. Last year in January I got contacted by my bank because they noticed a higher amount sitting in my savings account (six figs, capped for CDIC, which was the minimum they wanted me to invest to have access to that service). They offered me an ‘investment advisor’ for free, and we set up an appointment.
The person asked me a few questions (mainly to assess my investor profile), and proceeded to print a nice colourful multi-page document, a masterpiece of a PDF. It appeared that had I invested in the recommended three ETFs when Covid started, I would have been about 50% up in a span of two years. He gave me a pitiful look, and barely kept himself from not calling me a lamentable idiot.
To which I’ve replied: “Yes, but would you have recommended exactly these three funds back in March of 2020? Or, it is easier to predict the past, based on how things have developed over time?”. He didn’t like that question and skipped answering it. We ended by shaking hands and not doing business together, but I’ve kept the three recommended ETFs under observation, and – lo and behold – one year later their combined value is 31.7% lower. Luckily I’ve taken another route to gain about 6% (cap gains).
“How to lie with statistics” – a book that everyone should read. Combining it with critical thinking, it can lead to great results!
Just a peaceful protest my ass. QueenMotherOfSneezes on reddit writes:
I live just north of the Byward. On the first Sunday I was at the Loblaws and saw what happened when a couple dozen protesters came in. Some seemed relatively civil, but the rest were whooping it up in the store, yelling about how wearing a mask made you sheep, etc. One of them physically assaulted an older customer while yelling about her mask, and was escorted from the store rather than being held for arrest. I asked the security guard why they weren’t stopping anyone else (they’re one of the private forces that are allowed to detain shoplifters for the police) and he said that Ottawa police had told them to not interact with any of the protesters unless they assaulted someone, because they had reports some of them were armed and might fight back (this was repeated by Sloly in the city council meeting the next day). As he was telling me this, 2 convoy people shoved my cart aside and walked through the cash with armloads of beer. They clearly knew they had carte blanche to do whatever they wanted.
The night before a friend of mine and her coworkers had to be escorted by cops from their jobs at the LCBO because they’d been swamped by protesters. Another friend’s dad missed 3 weeks of his cancer treatments because neither cabs nor paratranspo could get near his apartment. My neighbour, along with a bunch of MPs and their staff, had to move out of his home for the first week because he got doxxed, and there were so many clips of protesters, including leaders, saying it would end in violence, that parliamentary security said they had to leave for their own safety.
It’s not just about the actual violence that occured. It was the threats of violence that they made, and how they used that that had a far greater impact on the lives of those who live downtown.
It was that threat of violence that allowed them to block the ambulance zone at Shep’s for over 12 hours before finally being towed, and why no one else was towed, ticketed, or arrested that first weekend.
It was that threat of violence that allowed them to honk incessantly overnight.
It was that threat of violence that caused some restaurants to close down preemptively, after being approached with specific discount deals to offer to the truckers that would result in their “protection”.
It was that threat of violence that kept the cops from being able to stop the flow of gas to the downtown blockades.
It was that threat of violence that allowed them to stay there as long as they did, and put up this “peace and love” front at Parliament itself, as they aimed fireworks at apartment windows, slow-rolled elementary schools and daycares, jammed our 911 lines, harassed staff and residents at our homeless shelters, called in a bomb threat that locked down Ottawa General, harassed the HCWs trying to get to work at Bruyere hospital, threw shit at houses, rocks at ambulances, and bricks through coffeeshop windows.
OECD predicts Canada will be the worst performing advanced economy over the next decade…and the three decades after that
https://bcbc.com/insights-and-opinions/oecd-predicts-canada-will-be-the-worst-performing-advanced-economy-over-the-next-decade-and-the-three-decades-after-that
Bah! Who cares about productivity when you can get rich by selling each other expensive houses with money printed by the bank cartel with the help of your government. Bernie Madoff would be proud!
Yield curve (US bonds) more inverted than anytime in the past 40 years for some spreads. Each previous inversion has lead to a recession. The late 1970s was the most recent of this steepness and we all know how that played. How is this time different?
Regardless, seems max inverted, time to short long bonds and long short bonds as Fed goes into a pause?
#57 GratefulCanadian on 01.31.23 at 6:34 pm
*********************
My case is much more interesting.
The bank offered me a meeting with a financial advisor who wanted to sell me death insurance. In the middle of our conversation, he said the following (fasten your seat belts on your chair) – “When you die, you will receive 100,000 dollars”. That’s exactly what he said! Pause! Gross silence! I look at him with difficulty not laughing. Then he understood everything and said – well, your children will receive.
Even with Ford stopping the “housing human right” bill in Ontario…this:
Ontario judge declares a right to build homeless camps on public land
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/ontario-judge-declares-a-right-to-build-homeless-camps-on-public-land
Hilarious on so many levels, I laughed through the whole article.
Starting with the fact that monarchy recognize that Natives own this land, to the violated treaties which can’t see the light of day in courts to be nullified, to Ontario flaking on the “housing is a human right bill”, to now anyone having right to public land.
I LOVE IT!
Hi Garth you sound about wright but no buts it always a roller coaster now were about to approach a smaller hill then a correction inflation will not be beaten its already baked in and rates above 4.5 plus inflation who knows how bad the recession will be when it arrives war and exspenses wont save are butts it seems to me were at peak for many things that spells trouble for everyone another layer just my thought but obvious to me
Lessons From mark Carney’s Book – Values
His book is not ALL bad.
One of his lessons which he picked up from others:
If it doesn’t make sense, it doesn’t make sense. (If you something seems crazy and no one seems to be able to explain it to you clearly, then assume it IS crazy).
In Canada that included how Asset-Backed Commercial paper worked in 2007 (collapse ensued)
It includes the Tulip bubble
The dot-com bubble and Nortel’s share price circa year 2000
It most likely includes zero percent interest rates. European governments borrowed 10 year money at negative rates as did Japan (makes no sense)
I’m going to assume it includes BitCoin. (The first asset class entirely devoid of any asset)
It probably includes ordinary suburban houses at 10 or 15 times income which only made sense at near-zero interest rates which themselves made no sense.
It includes Non-Fungible Tokens and the prices of many collectibles when they get especially stupid.
What else?
Well, if the secret to keeping one’s investment portfolio in robust health is ‘Do Nothing’, I can confidently state I’ve got a black belt in this strategy, primarily due to being a lazy bum who never opens statements, etc. I do track one or two ‘bell weather’ items on the financial pages each day, which takes nano seconds.
If the markets are correctly pricing in ‘clear sailing ahead, pause/pivot, nothing to see but roses in the rose garden’, o.k. by me. My only doubts surround the ‘unheard of’ rapidity and escalation of the rate increases since March combined with the level of debt carried both by consumers and corporate entities. In the current environment of instant gratification and real time computing we seem to want instantaneous responses to what lies ahead as a result of these rate increases. But Mr. Lag Time will do things on his own time table, and seems like the fog of rate increases won’t lift until late summer at the earliest. I see surprises ahead. But what does a Jaguar know?
BC Peeps: Can any of you help this ol’ corn fed Albertan out in understanding what this new law in your province ( legalizing small quantities of hard drugs and handing out a business card of where to get help ) means? What exactly will it accomplish? The media characterizes it as a means to getting rid of the ‘stigma’, etc., but exactly how is that going to save lives and rid the problems associated with drug use, i.e. crime, homelessness, meth teeth and other health issues, etc. Didn’t it used to be called ‘The War on Drugs’? When did it become the ‘War on Stigma’?
Ring, ring, ring….Old Boot…pick up the telephono….
#62 Human Rights
more dark humor:
just wait and see how fast homeless people are cleared off public land when GOVERNMENT wants to use/develop it.
55 rknusa
“re: Our CB was the first major one in the world to pivot.
not a pivot
a hold
That’s a pivot. – Garth”
————————————————-
Ah,,,not even a hold…. they raised the bank rate. Maybe a hold next time. Getting a little ahead of ourselves.
Nothin’ would whack us like another 25er in April…..just
to show it can still be done.
The Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, Balanced Budgets and Rob’s investment returns. All you have to do is believe.
You have surprised me. – Garth
58 Observer on 01.31.23 at 6:39 pm
Where were these pearl clutchers when there was an armed border check point between Ontario and QC – for our health? When purchases of ‘non essential’ goods was banned in Ontariowe. None of this is from a medical textbook, these were out of a WAR playbook.
Where were they in 2020-21 when cancer screenings and doctors appointments were banned, but PCR tests allowed (due to contract$ being signed).
Fact: in Summer 2020 you could go to the airport, hop an international flight. NO testing, NO mask. Does this sound like a pandemic response to you?
Small business was destroyed and/or indebted.
People like you so quickly hopped onto the anti-human system which was unleased upon us.
Me I’ve been attacked in person by Covidans many times. I ignored them. My policy is not to engage with hostile mentally ill persons.
If the illegal and disruptive Ottawa protest had not taken place I am quite certain you’d now be lined up 6-6-6 feet apart in frigid cold outside the grocery store.
#58 Observer on 01.31.23 at 6:39 pm
Yep. Same reason someone walking the streets of Kenosha with an assault rifle can’t be considered peaceful even if they are handing out peace flags. It’s pure gaslighting trash that the right is getting extremely good at and that their uneducated base of idiots gobble as gospel. Entrypoint to fascism.
2300 drug deaths in BC last year.
80 % were men.
Most were between the ages of 30 and 60.
Highest number of deaths ;
Vancouver, Surrey, and Greater Victoria.
Bring on decriminalization of hard drugs.
42 kommykim on 01.31.23 at 4:30 pm
RE: #13 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.31.23 at 2:33 pm
I’m reading that Insurance Companies are denying coverage for vehicles that are on the high theft list.
Could the burning EVs be next?
=======================================
Not likely since ICE cars are more likely to catch fire than EVs…
Insurance companies look at facts. Not oil company sponsored “news”…
Disclaimer: I have two ICE vehicles and have never owned nor even driven an EV yet.
————————
Right now, about 90% of vehicles driven are ICE.
I’m looking into the future.
So should you.
Of course it is backed by nothing. And will, eventually assume its full value. – Garth
—————————————-
You’re willfully ignoring the evidence, and just repeating yourself without addressing the points I’ve raised.
Bitcoin price is backed by the demand for its utility. Uncensorable peer to peer transfers done in minutes for a few dollars, no third party gatekeeper like a bank required. People have done secure billion dollar transfers in minutes at a cost of $4. None of this is possible in traditional finance.
And Bitcoin’s value cannot be inflated away the way fiat’s value is.
What’s more, Bitcoin’s tech is old compared to much better crypto tech that’s already come out. Now those same transactions can be done on newer networks for pennies and and be settled in sub-second time. That’s full settlement, complete finality. Traditional finance requires days or a week or more to do final settlement, and needs guarded airplanes and Brinks trucks full of cash. This is becoming antiquated and now seems quaint. Obviously crypto will be adopted for its advantages, and any part of the financial world not using it will be left behind. This is real even if you don’t want to know about it. Times are changing Garth.
@#70 Faronista
“It’s pure gaslighting trash that the right is getting extremely good at and that their uneducated base of idiots gobble as gospel. Entrypoint to fascism.”
++++
Odd.
I thought it was the Left “Leadership”.
Paralysed by indecision as the Truck convoy wound its way across Canada.
The PMO issued vague statements.
Ottawa Police chief and the RCMP basically waited until instructed what to do.
If Harper was faced with the lawlessness of the first week I’m pretty sure it would have quickly ended and the jails would have been full.
Instead we had the slow motion sh!tshow of th politically correct vs …Rubes/ conspiracy toadies/ anarchists running amok as all levels of govt (Ottawa/Ontario/Feds expected someone “do something!”…
A pathetic example of how the apologist Left expects everyone will “do the right thing” and comply with the Law.
As random assaults, robberies, and stabbings……. end with a revolving door of bail bail bail.
Time for Trudeau and his Legion of PC Apologists to admit their policies are an epic, lawless ….fail.
Talking about exploding and burning cars.
The Ford Pinto takes the cake.
I have to admit I had one.
My mechanic neighbor sold it to me.
Since then I never trust car mechanics and car sales men again.
And neighbours.
#66 saskatoon on 01.31.23 at 8:21 pm
#62 Human Rights
more dark humor:
just wait and see how fast homeless people are cleared off public land when GOVERNMENT wants to use/develop it.
()()()()()()()
Please read the article. Government won’t be able to evict without proper accommodation to the occupant’s liking.
The whole thing came up because the government wanted clarification on what bylaws it can apply, when and how.
#108 Wrk.dover on 01.30.23 at 8:52 am
Flop; that stretch of I-40 (rte 66) from Kingman AZ to Amarillo TX. has a steady winter wind howling, every time I’ve stopped long enough to gas up. Warm and sunny in the car set at 140Km/hr on cruise though, watching the back and forth of mile long double deck sea can trains on the adjacent Union Pacific line, every five to ten minutes.
Las Cruses to the far south, gets 330 days of at least partial sun, if you want to stay in NM., and your wife can hack a city of reasonable proportion, rather than the biggest. Best part, it is upwind of El Paso, which is down wind of mega sized feedlots. Ah, the smell of bovine urine on a warm day!
Ruidoso NM. looks like home to me. Trees and acreages.
//////////////////////////////////////
Looked at Ruidoso, looked nice, Mrs Flop couldn’t find a massive mall on the map.
Gold, Lies and Videotape on Discovery Channel is on shortly tonight, filmed down in the same area.
Maybe the strip mall is inside of the mountain with all the gold and buried artifacts…
M48BC
THIS!
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/lebanon-devalue-currency-by-90-feb-1-cbank-chief-says-2023-01-31/
Is what happens when an incompetent, corrupt govt is left to do what ever it wants and the apathetic voters let it.
People are robbing banks in Lebanon to….get their own money.
People are dropping their children off at orphanages because……. they will starve if they don’t.
#69 TurnerNation on 01.31.23 at 9:03 pm
Where were these pearl clutchers when there was an armed border check point between Ontario and QC – for our health?
Right on, how we forget that plans to literally deny work, entry & exit, tax, jail, relocate and who knows how far in the psychos goes not so long ago seem somehow reasonable with zero backlash? Apparently even Canadians do actually have a breaking point.
If anyone is to blame, it’s squarely at the divider-in-chef who bravely went into hiding leaving everyone local to deal with the hornet’s nest they themselves created.
And no it wasn’t just the provinces that cooked up the idiotic measures without a nod from Ottawa. Honestly remember these events in their time since the 70s we’ve not had such a major disruption since.
Montréal is naturally home to constant protests of various legitimacies. However all will end the hour or police ‘enforcement’. Ottawa being a isolated government town is simply not used to physical blowback of ‘the other side’.
#22 Slanty Semi on 01.31.23 at 2:53 pm
For the trailing 7 years (Feb 2016) I’m also sitting at a nice 8.5% annualized ROR.
Just over a year ago my trailing 7 years was 11.1% annualized, but then the debacle of 2022 hit! The longer term play still has me in a comfortable spot
__________
What if your 10 year ROR was closer to twice that amount (17%) and was unaffected by 2022 (so far, at least)…though I am fully expecting that going forward from here it will be about half that rate, at least until current economic situation is clearer.
Perhaps it is time to divest and cash in the gravy while the train is still in the station.
Does the global SWIFT System have any intrinsic value?
It’s just a bunch of software code used to transfer money around the world. It generates fees for the service it provides, does this give it intrinsic value?
Thus, can there be any value to the service and security provided by Bitcoin as a medium of exchange? Why would such a value one day go to zero?
I don’t think you understand quite what the “15 minute city” is really about. Go do some more research, and you’ll see it’s not about improving our lives at all.
====================================
#5 Another Deckchair on 01.31.23 at 2:17 pm
Been on an anti-car kick. For 25 years. Yes, have one, but living arranged around walking and the “15 minute” city, way before that became a thing.
#65 the Jaguar on 01.31.23 at 8:06 pm
Well, if the secret to keeping one’s investment portfolio in robust health is ‘Do Nothing’, I can confidently state I’ve got a black belt in this strategy, primarily due to being a lazy bum who never opens statements, etc. I do track one or two ‘bell weather’ items on the financial pages each day, which takes nano seconds.
If the markets are correctly pricing in ‘clear sailing ahead, pause/pivot, nothing to see but roses in the rose garden’, o.k. by me. My only doubts surround the ‘unheard of’ rapidity and escalation of the rate increases since March combined with the level of debt carried both by consumers and corporate entities. In the current environment of instant gratification and real time computing we seem to want instantaneous responses to what lies ahead as a result of these rate increases. But Mr. Lag Time will do things on his own time table, and seems like the fog of rate increases won’t lift until late summer at the earliest. I see surprises ahead. But what does a Jaguar know?
BC Peeps: Can any of you help this ol’ corn fed Albertan out in understanding what this new law in your province ( legalizing small quantities of hard drugs and handing out a business card of where to get help ) means? What exactly will it accomplish? The media characterizes it as a means to getting rid of the ‘stigma’, etc., but exactly how is that going to save lives and rid the problems associated with drug use, i.e. crime, homelessness, meth teeth and other health issues, etc. Didn’t it used to be called ‘The War on Drugs’? When did it become the ‘War on Stigma’?
Ring, ring, ring….Old Boot…pick up the telephono….
********
Jag
It is a 3 year pilot project based on the Oregon model I believe.
Just don’t do hard drugs…problem solved.
#65 the Jaguar on 01.31.23 at 8:06 pm
……….
Ring, ring, ring….Old Boot…pick up the telephono….
*************
The announcement regarding the decriminalization 2.5 grams of hard drugs is a shameless admission that the NDP intend to do nothing to actually reduce drug deaths and street disorder.
Personal use amounts have effectively been decriminalized for decades. The only real change is that officers won’t seize the dope now, letting the user keep their stash, and they’ll give the user a business card with a phone number to call for non-existent treatment options. Even detox beds have weeks-long wait lists.
Portland, OR went the decriminalization route 2 years ago, and less than 1% of users opted for treatment. This despite the availability of same-day treatment beds. $320 million spent, and nothing to show for it.
https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2022/09/oregons-drug-decriminalization-effort-sends-less-than-1-of-people-to-treatment.html
BC doesn’t have short notice treatment beds, nor do they have any data on the few treatment programs available to determine whether they are evidence-based or effective.
Portugal’s decriminalization regime is often cited by local politicians and assorted do-gooders as a blue print but unlike BC, Portugal still seizes the drugs and pushes users persuasively towards treatment.
Portugal also has something like 50 treatment sites, and 2 harm reduction sites. BC has reversed that ratio.
Most OD deaths in BC are a result of smoking opiates – chasing the dragon – but no harm reduction sites permit smoking in them. No one seems to have a plan to prevent the majority of deaths.
In short, decriminalization is meaningless and the deaths will continue uninterrupted.
An old colleague of mine , and former mayor of Port Alberni, has brought the European model for therapeutic recovery communities to Vancouver Island. This model has promise.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-port-alberni-vs-that-ogre-on-the-river-a-new-approach-to-the-opioid/
@#75 Paranoid Ponzie Prevails
“Since then I never trust car mechanics and car sales men again.
And neighbours.”
++++
Explains a lot.
The bloviating bilious bilgewater spews forth from our resident curmudgeon.
71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.23 at 9:19 pm
2300 drug deaths in BC last year.
80 % were men.
Most were between the ages of 30 and 60.
Highest number of deaths ;
Vancouver, Surrey, and Greater Victoria.
———————
Many of them are Construction Workers.
Amazon crypto is a scam.
13: Tesla has begun to insure Tesla owners with auto insurance. The rates are much lower than conventional insurance companies. Tesla can offer insurance at a lower premium because they understand the risks , and they know statistcally how safe Tesla’s are. The model Y has been classified as the safest car made.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/model-y-earns-5-star-safety-rating-euro-ncap
Re: #60 Faron on 01.31.23 at 7:11 pm
3 more rate hikes January, March and May.
#5 Another Deckchair on 01.31.23 at 2:17 pm
Been on an anti-car kick. For 25 years. Yes, have one, but living arranged around walking and the “15 minute” city, way before that became a thing.
I see everyone now has a car. Or two or three. Nobody does the math.
________________________________________
Bigger lifetime expense than Re is my take on that math, which no financial advisor addresses often meaningfully.
I love having plenty of them at my disposal, but we only burned $6.50/day of fuel last yr.
Our brand new one went 4500km in six months, then hibernated three months ago.
I do agree with one thing above in the story, is that in the long run , if you don’t act with emotions, you ll win eventually… However, the chart looks somewhat off for the years 2020 to 2022. It makes sense between 2016 and 2020 given that it is a chart for B&D portfolio…
Lets take a look an example jpmorgan chart
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/on-the-minds-of-investors/is-the-60-40-dead/
2016
2017(15%) = 1.15
2018(-0.3%) = 1.15* 0.97
2019(22%)= 1.15*0.97*1.22
2020(14%)=1.15*0.97*1.22*1.14
2021(17%)=1.15*0.97*1.22*1.14*1.17
2022(-18%)= 1.15*0.97*1.22*1.14*1.17*0.78
so the total is 1.41% in 6 years that gets to you approximately 6%… 1.06^6=1.4185
I did not validate 2020, 2021 and 2022 numbers from other sources…
Is there an evidence to support this chart ? ie make a sample B&D and get to these numbers from 2020 to 2022 ?
#79 mike from mtl on 01.31.23 at 9:57 pm
The trucker’s unwarranted siege never should have taken place. Should not be supported. To the point, there should have been no need — in a functioning democracy.
I’m not anti-government. There is a case to be made that we have no government as such. T2 and NDP stand ready to unite and crush any elected foe.
Who or what took over in March 2020 a bunch of Globalist Ghouls or what??
Short memories. Late December 2021 our rulers cancelled New Years Eve, plunged more small business into chaos and debt; put us under house arrest; curfews in QC. Nowhere else in the planet was this taking place. A laughing stock we were.
Let’s check the pipeline. Control over travel.
In in 2020 streets were blocked off, planters and outdoor patios installed. Travel is to be wound down, only for rich.
Tolls, traffic cameras, Karbon taxes, licence plate readers, congestion charges, bike lanes. Need I go on?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/government-wants-you-to-own-an-electric-vehicle-1.6727061
The government wants you to own an electric vehicle — but who can even afford them?
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/torquay-15-minute-cities-protesters-8093963
Torquay ’15 Minute Cities’ protesters say freedom is at risk
But council insists: ‘We have absolutely no plans to impose restrictions on movement, either now or in the future’
@#31 Quinty’s quirks
“Sounds like the inhabitants of Curmudgeonville would approve.”
+++
Yep. A veritable Ponzie paradise.
@#88 Ponzies pithy Platitudes
“Many of them are Construction Workers.”
+++
yep.
Real work is hard.
@#85 Old Boot on 01.31.23 at 10:56 pm/ thank you Old Boot.
@35 Re-Cowtown and @82 David Greene;
I spent years working and living in Europe, and other places around. I’ve lived the “15 minute city” (or whatever you want to call it). Before then I lived the “place ones backside in a car seat for hours a day” life. I’ll take what I currently live, thank you, I understand that may not be a choice or possibility for all yet, so no disrespect meant.
Cowtown; yep – but if I may; a) one of the most ardent walkers/cyclers drove an 18 wheeler for decades. These guys/gals know how to drive, b) getting the cars out of the way allows the delivery people to do their jobs.
More on the cost of cars, if I may.
About 3 decades ago, were a 2 car family. Needed 2nd car, “because we need 2 cars” even though we basically commuted together and one sat in the garage collecting dust.
Ok – 4 years after selling car #2, yours truly went through the receipts, and figured that if I HAD purchased a transit pass (for those odd times…) and NOT purchased the 2nd car, we’d have saved 14 thousand 500 and something dollars. Based solely on repairs, and depreciation.
That was in the days where pre-tax income was not high. Would have dropped our mortgage by about 20%. One of those “holy s**t” moments.
One can live a healthy life, stress-free, but you have to keep your mind open to change. And, do the math! :-)
Anyway, just my observations. Hope this helps someone.
#83 Quintilian on 01.31.23 at 10:38 pm
#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.23 at 9:48 pm
People are robbing banks in Lebanon to….get their own money.
People are dropping their children off at orphanages because……. they will starve if they don’t
Sounds like a right winger’s paradise. Sounds like the inhabitants of Curmudgeonville would approve. You know…. No nanny state, self-reliance, laissez faire, Reaganomics.
Danielle Smith and Pepe would also approve; it balances the budget.
—————————————————-
What an insane comment. This is why I have such low regard for “intellect” of those on the left.
Lebanon is in the mess they’re in because of money printing. Currency destruction is the root cause of most societal collapse, exactly the thing PP is going to put a stop to with the BoC!
Politicizing monetary authorities is what Third World countries specialize in. Poilievre is a massive idiot if he even tries. – Garth
#87 saskatoon on 01.31.23 at 11:28 pm
#76 Human Rights
seriously, you can’t be this naive.
____
It’s true. Now the city has a whole slew of things to consider and rectify/accommodate before they can even think of taking down a tent city. By-Laws aren’t enough to act on. This BC precedent will probably continue spreading right across Canada.
Frankly, if I were an Ontario homeless dude, I’d be ditching the tent now, and rounding up some skids and scrap lumber to build myself a little shanty. Install something that’ll pass as a wood stove and start working on my woodpile. Ontario is a lot colder than Van’s DTES, tents aren’t going to cut it. Hell, it was -21 just this am.
Here, tent cities will probably give way to semi-permanent public park shanty towns. No need to have highly mobile accommodations anymore.
Well, our outsize reaction may say something about the effect unfair reward systems have on us, wherever they show up. It turns out they are toxic. Reams of research and stacks of business books tell us that knocking incentives even slightly out of alignment with achievement has a terrible effect on organisations – plunging workers into a kind of exhausted cynicism. Just one conspicuous instance of nepotism can infect an entire company, sending job satisfaction rolling downhill, along with productivity. Top employees leave and others stop bothering to compete. And what is true for companies is true for industries at large, or even societies. Watching the children of the famous triumphantly straddle the arts is rather like watching Gavin Williamson get knighted or City bosses awarding themselves bonuses in a mediocre year. If the world’s glittering prizes have so little to do with performance, what’s the point in even trying?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/29/nepo-babies-claim-their-parentage-is-overblown-truth-is-theyre-helped-all-the-way
#80 Gravy train on 01.31.23 at 10:21 pm
You wrote:
What if your 10 year ROR was closer to twice that amount (17%) and was unaffected by 2022 (so far, at least)…though I am fully expecting that going forward from here it will be about half that rate, at least until current economic situation is clearer.
Perhaps it is time to divest and cash in the gravy while the train is still in the station.
Are you suggesting I go to cash?
That would be trying to time the market, which almost always leads to failure.
Hardly any news in the business section of the NP this morning as the page content is largely taken up with ‘Notice of Sheriff’s Sale of Lands’….
Mr. Lag Time just checked into the Heartbreak Hotel.
#19 Palpha
Federal Union wants 47% wage increase over 3 years. And CRA employees want 30%. I feel like I am living in George Orwell’s 1984.
——————————————————————————————————
Fire ’em all!
Ronald Reagan style.
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/reagan-fires-11359-air-traffic-controllers
Yesterday, BC decriminalized small amounts of most street drugs for personal use. The theory is that doing so will de-stigmatize use and lead to greater treatment and less drug use.
If only there was a place where this experiment was already tried.
And there is. Oregon tried exactly the same thing two years ago. The result was a 39.4% INCREASE IN OVERDOSE DEATHS.
There seems to be a recurring theme of the Systemic-Woke denying science while labelling those who disagree with them as deniers.
The Netherlands ran a similar drug experiment with similar tragic results to Oregon, then did an about face and started putting people in jail again for possession. Deaths and street crime both plummeted.
This will not end well in BC. And I’m sure that once the Butcher’s Bill comes to be paid, the blame will be laid at the foot of society, when it should go to “Systemic Woke-ism”
#38 Weltschmerz
Rob is a lucky man. I wish we could all be that lucky.
It’s not luck. – Garth
———————————————————————————————————-
Hey.
The dude SOLD his house.
It’s not like the money appeared outta nowhere.
If you happen to own a house free and clear (i.e., no mortgage, no HELOC, or whatever the equity in it happens to be), and sell it, you too can convert a hard asset into a chart.
Hang it on a wall, update it monthly, and stare at it all day while living in your newly rented digs.
It’s a trade off.
Some people like dirt.
Some people like charts.
Whatever turns your crank.
I prefer having my cake and eating it too, but that’s only possible if you are a BOOMER!
Uncle Warren and I share a bit of mind meld, and I have a suspicion about Berkshire and Tesla. We’ll see in a couple weeks.
https://twitter.com/randyselzer/status/1620635560774860801
Is there an upturn? MLS sales Jan 1-30
Toronto Det
2022 = 495
2023 = 294
41% drop
Mississauga Det
2022 = 157
2023 = 72
54% drop
Brampton Det
2022 = 324
2023 = 130
60% drop
Toronto Condo Apt
2022 = 1494
2023 = 526
65% drop
Mississauga Condo Apt
2022 = 233
2023 = 96
59% drop
Brampton Condo Apt
2022 = 48
2023 = 19
61% drop
Tom Brady has “finally” retired.
Probably will see him on TEEVEE soon.
Flogging CHIP mortgages.
It’s sad to see athletes ignoring the “best before” label.
Looks like PP gots new glasses.
#91 Tony on 02.01.23 at 2:36 am
Re: #60 Faron on 01.31.23 at 7:11 pm
3 more rate hikes January, March and May
—
Hopefully. Equities seem to have priced in a pause and a Downy-soft landing. Looking for an event vol compression rip today and then a puke as traders realize the cost of money is gonna keep going up and the amount of it is going to keep dropping. Then smol rally to an OpEx dump. Not my ideas, but what I read from analysts I respect.
#69 TurnerNation on 01.31.23 at 9:03 pm
If the illegal and disruptive Ottawa protest had not taken place I am quite certain you’d now be lined up 6-6-6 feet apart in frigid cold outside the grocery store.
^^^^^^^^^^
I suppose you also believe that it would be a positive for Canada if USA were to “liberate” us.
#105 Systemic Woke-ism on 02.01.23 at 9:23 am
Yesterday, BC decriminalized small amounts of most street drugs for personal use. The theory is that doing so will de-stigmatize use and lead to greater treatment and less drug use.
This will not end well in BC. And I’m sure that once the Butcher’s Bill comes to be paid, the blame will be laid at the foot of society, when it should go to “Systemic Woke-ism”
=================================
Huge topic…but I agree …..things will get worse.
Recent documentary:
“Vancouver Is Dying”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PT8OU8Yhs_s
Even when they provide housing….the drug dealing and use can get even worse.
IMHO….the Gov’t knows the likely outcomes and will facilitate them. I hate to say it, but at a rate of 6 deaths a day, the gov’t looks at this as a major cost saving.
So you can walk around with heroin, meth, crack or fentanyl in B.C. now but Ivermectin was far to dangerous.
Got it!
#97 Another Deckchair on 02.01.23 at 8:31 am
As long as you off-load onto others the cost of the transportation needed to sustain your lifestyle, your math is stellar.
If you do full cycle accounting, possibly including jetting off to eco-tour exotic locales, you’re probably just another carbon-phony Blanche DoBois type who “always relied on the kindness of strangers”.
I lived on the left coast for many years. I was always amazed by the bad math that accompanied virtue signalling on “sustainability”.
#100 IHCTD9 on 02.01.23 at 8:46 am
#87 saskatoon on 01.31.23 at 11:28 pm
#76 Human Rights
seriously, you can’t be this naive.
____
It’s true. Now the city has a whole slew of things to consider and rectify/accommodate before they can even think of taking down a tent city. By-Laws aren’t enough to act on. This BC precedent will probably continue spreading right across Canada.
+++++++++++++
In some third world countries this is called “Squatter’s Rights”.
They cannot be moved without compensation or relocated without their consent. Seems like we might be headed in that direction.
Apocalypse maybe sometime
Iran, North Korea and China are rapidly calculating what benefits they would gain by challenging the current world order and joining in with Russia.
Iran, North Korea and China are rapidly calculating what benefits they would gain by challenging the current world order and invading Russia.
Hey Flop
Press Play ! An hour long.
https://www.jordanharbinger.com/mitch-lowe-lessons-in-disruption-part-one/
According to Doug Harris, professor at the University of British Columbia’s Allard School of Law, while the current principal safeguard against title fraud is for legal professionals to check identification, the title registry system works to protect the transaction, rather than the individual.
“It seems counterintuitive that someone who owns a house all of a sudden ends up dispossessed of that house because somebody else, an innocent buyer, has made a transaction with a rogue. But that’s what the system protects — it protects that transaction,” he said.
“It’s one of the risks in a system where a policy decision has been made to make it simpler to transfer interest in land.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/mortgage-fraud-bc-homes-1.6732176
Dubai Police arrest 432 crime lords – force support lands mafia …
https://www.arabianbusiness.com › culture-society › du…
Dec 26, 2022 — Dubai Police have arrested 432 international fugitives for crimes including murder, money laundering, armed robbery and leading a criminal …
Police in Dubai, elsewhere bust ‘super-cartel’ running 1/3 of …
https://www.timesofisrael.com › police-in-dubai-elsewh…
Nov 28, 2022 — 49 arrested across several countries, including ‘big fish’ linked to suspected Dutch mob lord who was caught in the UAE three years ago.
Gangster’s Paradise: How Dubai Finally Turned On Its Crime …
https://www.vice.com › Home › World News
Oct 12, 2022 — The seven star Burj Al Arab hotel in Dubai, where international cocaine kingpins Ridouan Taghi, Raffaele Imperiale, Daniel Kinahan and Edin …
Tax paradise
But Marijn Schrijver, co-author of the bestselling book Mocro Maffia said that while the Netherlands’ neighbors like to blame its lax soft drug policies, “that is not the reason.”
“What we are is a tax paradise. We want to import as much as possible into the ports to transport it again, and that makes the Netherlands the perfect place logistically,” Schrijver told AFP.
The recent dismantling in Dubai of the “super-cartel,” which allegedly provided about one third of Europe’s cocaine, indicates that the kingpins may be moving out of the Netherlands.
A Taghi-linked Dutch “big fish” arrested in the Gulf emirate had reportedly formed an alliance with the leaders of Irish and Italian drug gangs.
https://www.voanews.com/a/drug-kingpin-trial-ultimate-test-for-dutch-rule-of-law/6885306.html
===========
alaska
https://www.webcenterfairbanks.com/2023/01
/27/white-supremacist-1488-prison-gang-members-sentenced-life-prison/
11 January 2023
Written by Henry Pope
U.S. courts across the country sentenced 69 members of the Universal Aryan Brotherhood (UAB) prison gang to a total of 418 years behind bars and 216 years of supervised release for crimes including drug trafficking and money laundering.
Through Wilson, the UAB constructed a network outside of America’s prisons that managed their drug trafficking operations. In uncovering the conspiracy, investigators learnt that he coordinated everything from inside the prison using contraband cell phones.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-wdok/pr/69-universal-aryan-brotherhood-gang-members-and-associates-convicted-during-multi-yea-0
Robert Reich:…”the wealthy used to pay higher taxes to the government. Now the government pays the wealthy interest on their loans to finance a swelling debt that’s been caused largely by lower taxes on the wealthy.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/01/republicans-arent-going-to-tell-americans-the-real-cause-of-our-314tn-debt
116 Yukon Elvis on 02.01.23 at 10:56 am
#100 IHCTD9 on 02.01.23 at 8:46 am
#87 saskatoon on 01.31.23 at 11:28 pm
#76 Human Rights
seriously, you can’t be this naive.
____
It’s true. Now the city has a whole slew of things to consider and rectify/accommodate before they can even think of taking down a tent city. By-Laws aren’t enough to act on. This BC precedent will probably continue spreading right across Canada.
+++++++++++++
In some third world countries this is called “Squatter’s Rights”.
They cannot be moved without compensation or relocated without their consent. Seems like we might be headed in that direction.
————————-
Then we’re just heading “Back to the future”.
I think Canada had similar laws in the settling days.
120 jess on 02.01.23 at 11:42 am
According to Doug Harris, professor at the University of British Columbia’s Allard School of Law, while the current principal safeguard against title fraud is for legal professionals to check identification, the title registry system works to protect the transaction, rather than the individual.
“It seems counterintuitive that someone who owns a house all of a sudden ends up dispossessed of that house because somebody else, an innocent buyer, has made a transaction with a rogue. But that’s what the system protects — it protects that transaction,” he said.
“It’s one of the risks in a system where a policy decision has been made to make it simpler to transfer interest in land.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/mortgage-fraud-bc-homes-1.6732176
————————
The bigger the transaction, the greater the “caveat emptor” should be.
This pause that is apt to come up ,I take it that it may be temporary depending on which way inflation is trending.
Since government likes to borrow and the real estate market likes higher prices we are likely to see more debt not less and therefore more inflation. People just don’t know when to quit their bad behavior. I would anticipate higher interest rates after a pause.
@#99 AM in MN on 02.01.23 at 8:45 am
#83 Quintilian on 01.31.23 at 10:38 pm
#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.31.23 at 9:48 pm
People are robbing banks in Lebanon to….get their own money.
People are dropping their children off at orphanages because……. they will starve if they don’t
Sounds like a right winger’s paradise. Sounds like the inhabitants of Curmudgeonville would approve. You know…. No nanny state, self-reliance, laissez faire, Reaganomics.
Danielle Smith and Pepe would also approve; it balances the budget.
—————————————————-
What an insane comment. This is why I have such low regard for “intellect” of those on the left.
Lebanon is in the mess they’re in because of money printing. Currency destruction is the root cause of most societal collapse, exactly the thing PP is going to put a stop to with the BoC!
Politicizing monetary authorities is what Third World countries specialize in. Poilievre is a massive idiot if he even tries. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++
PP is a massive idiot in general.