That’s it. She’s so done. Tiff said.
In the media conference held in Ottawa this morning these were the first words out of the mouth of the Bank of Canada governor: “We’ve raised rates rapidly and now is the time to pause and reflect…”
As you likely know (and as foretold here) the CB rate just popped a quarter point (puny) to 4.5%. So the banks’ prime moves to 6.7% tomorrow, the highest in 22 years, with variables over 6% and HELOCs at 7.2%. Folks with home equity loans, says mortgage broker Ron Butler, “will be in despair because their minimum payments have ratcheted to a point nearly 250% higher than what they were 10 months ago. The Big Question: Is this actually the end of increases?”
We’re betting yes. Governor Macklem says inflation will continue to fade this year, down to 3%, then back to the target of two per cent in ’24. He’s not calling for a recession – just a ‘stall’ in growth, which will be 1% this year and 2% thereafter.
“There is growing evidence that restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending,” he added. “Consumption growth has moderated from the first half of 2022 and housing market activity has declined substantially. As the effects of interest rate increases continue to work through the economy, spending on consumer services and business investment are expected to slow.”
Okay. Sea change. Big news. The tightening (as we forecast) is over. What does this mean?
First, it’s really, really, really unlikely Tiff will pivot and goose the cost of money again in a few months. That would take a meaningful jump in inflation, a surge in job growth, escalating oil prices and a wage-price spiral. Not out of the question. But not likely. Everybody in Ottawa wants this rate thing to end.
Second, it’s the signal realtors, mortgage guys and sellers were looking for. This could mean – as we detailed here two days ago – the bottom is in for the real estate market. That 23% peak-to-now drop in national prices, the 22% plunge in 416 detacheds and 30% decline in Bunnypatch values, plus the 45% plop in sales in the GTA and YVR, is the end. The CB move today doesn’t mean prices will romp higher, because affordability still sucks, but stability is breaking out. Buyers and sellers waiting for the bottom may just have seen it arrive. Sales volumes will soon reflect it.
Third, maybe it’s time to put maple into perspective. Americans are still looking at rate increases, have a debilitating debt ceiling crisis to get through and are in a stinky tech meltdown at the moment. Yeah, America is an exceptional country, but this land of beavs and Timmies isn’t too shabby, either.
The next time some demented offshore soul trashes Canada in the comments section, or a Pepe, burn-it-all-down fanboy calls this nation garbage because of its current leadership, bear this in mind…
- Last month Canada added 104,000 new jobs. Contrast that with the States where only 223,000 new hires took place despite having more than ten times the population. We rocked.
- The unemployment rate here is currently 5%, just a hair about its all-time low. And this is despite almost a year of interest rate increases and global economic turmoil
- Our official inflation rate was 8.1% and is now nearing 6%. The CB says it will be 3% by summer, and a nothingburger by a year from now. Compare that to Europe.
- Our stock market’s been under pressure, like every other one in the world, but lately it’s outperformed the American one. Last year the S&P500 shed 20%. The Nasdaq was whacked with a 33% loss. But Bay Street lost just 8.5% – and it now doing okay.
- Everybody has debt. It’s a big global problem. But the US is hitting its borrowing ceiling and has debt equal to 120% of its economy. Our debt is a disgrace and has mushroomed under Trudeau, but sits at a far more tolerable 70% of the economy. Plus, we have no crippling government shutdown looming. No George Santos.
- Maybe health care waiting times are awful and the system is stressed. But it’s still free. And look at the Covid numbers – 50,300 people perished here. Over 1.1 million died in the States. Do the math and see that our result was vastly better. The truckers were wrong.
- Speaking of health, people in Canada can expect to live a life averaging 81.2 years. American life expectancy is 77.2. Maybe less in Chicago.
And let me leave you with some words about Ukraine, tanks, war and our country from veteran analyst Ed Pennock:
The War in Ukraine has had an immense impact. Ukraine is destroyed. Russia won’t recover from its Rogue State. NATO found its glue. Finland and Sweden joined NATO. Brings the Alliance right to the Russian Border. The Germans are going to send Leopard Tanks. Allow Poland to send their dozen or so Leopards. Just as long as the US sends M1 Abrams. It’s what the Ukes wanted. Will it make the War unwinnable for Russia? Shorten it? This will hasten Investors’ thinking about the massive “Marshall Plan” that will rebuild Ukraine. Another huge demand component for materials. Buy Canada.
Quite a bit is about to change. Hug a moose.
About the picture: “Best financial blog around!” writes Dan. “I work in Capital Markets, so I have an idea. :-D This is Felix. He is 2 years old and was fostered to keep company to our other cat, Zorro. He likes books, treats and chasing squirrels. People say that he is a bit silly, but I do not think so.”
212 comments ↓
#140 Sail Away on 01.25.23 at 2:01 pm
#134 Faron on 01.25.23 at 1:42 pm
Lol. My arms are twice as big as yours, but you’re way mouthier. Let’s call it a draw.
—
Wow, responds with insinuated violence aimed at quieting speech he doesn’t like. Running out of clown emojis.
NATO is sending in Tanks to Ukraine – things are going to get alot more worse. Russia will be counter aggressively.
Are we going to see more and more red in our portfolios?
Time to cash out and wait? Iam sick and tired of losing money
Hopefully Putin rolls over. The wild card.
Garth you did it again. You said good (factual) things about Canada. Prepare the supercharged comments…
And if anybody isn’t grateful to either be born in, or have immigrated to Canada, they have no sense of perspective. We are amongst the lucky ones on this planet.
Do central bankers talk? I wonder if the BoC has some insider knowledge about what the Fed’s next move is – like if they know the Fed is planning a rate pause a well.
“We’ve raised rates rapidly and now is the time to pause and reflect…”just like he said:
“Our message to Canadians is that interest rates are very low and they’re going to be there for a long time,” back in 2020….
i wouldn’t get too comfortable….
I would. When things change, smart people change. – Garth
DELETED
“Maybe health care waiting times are awful and the system is stressed. But it’s still free. And look at the Covid numbers – 50,300 people perished here. Over 1.1 million died in the States. Do the math and see that our result was vastly better. The truckers were wrong”
Way to lose any credibility. Healthcare is definitely not “free” here.
And no, the truckers were not wrong. In fact, the mainstream narrative has fallen apart on that topic. People were lied to in the reasoning on why they had to give control of their body. You were wrong, Garth. Be a man and own up to it.
With all this focus on interest rate rises, I wonder if we’re forgetting the less visible effect that quantitative tightening is having on inflation? Inflation is, on the surface, responding to interest rate rises fair more directly than it ever seemed to in the 70s and 80s, but then we weren’t also shrinking the money supply at the same time.
“Hug a moose”?
Literally or figuratively?
I will do what I can – count on it!
Og
We’ll be springing into spring with that BOC sentiment. A lot of mooses will be hugged.
Anybody remember the ‘buy now, or buy never’ mantra told to everybody since at least the GFC?
What if, with today’s last rate increase, it really is the last time real estate will be affordable to anybody not born with a trust fund or generational wealth? This could very well be the last chance, for a generation or two, that owning dirt is possible without winning the lotto.
Lots of jobs, but salaries are suppressed, and the government takes over 43% of your income past 100k. It’s almost impossible to live comfortably as a one-income family in the GTA unless you are making 200K+ or are extremely frugal.
My aged, diabetic father had an accident at home and severely wounded his foot, which became badly infected. Two visits and one overnight stay at emerg, eight morning visits to the hospital for iv antibiotics and wound treatment, and now receiving daily home care visits from a community nurse for a few months. Total cost: free. In the USA, this would have likely bankrupted him and financially ruined us. Health care perspective is needed.
I do not believe that inflation will be tamed this quickly.
Just as Macklem was unwise with his 2020 comment about low rates, the comment about inflation being tamed will re-ignite it.
We shall see.
Housing market experts see glimmer of hope in BOC rate hike pause
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/housing-market-experts-see-glimmer-of-hope-in-boc-rate-hike-pause-1.1874809
Mortgage strategist Robert McLister of MortgageLogic.news said the latest hike is essentially the limit of what some borrowers can handle, and the Bank of Canada appears to understand that.
“Today’s news is going to give borrowers hope,” McLister said in a phone interview on Wednesday with BNNBloomberg.ca
“The (central) bank believes this is as much tightening as we need to get inflation back on track, and everyone who’s got a mortgage should hope they’re right.”
What’s with these realtor speculators who believe that the BOC interest rate policy is like day trading?
I learned in intro Economics class that interest rate changes take at least six months to several years for it to be felt in the wider economy.
Last month we added over 100,000 jobs, but the economy is projected to grow by only 1%.
As one poster often says “4 out of 3 people find math is hard”
People are living in Hiroshima and Nagasaki today. There is no reason Russia can not use tactical nukes today and repopulate the new Russian cities in the future.
Humans tend to use the tools they build.
PS. What the frak is a nothingburger. You sound like a teenage valley girl.
Lots of positive points about Canada being a good place to invest. In a fantasy world it would nice to one day add this Point:
– Conservatives scrap Trudeau Liberal’s carbon taxes and remove all restrictions on Canada’s oil and Liquid Natural gas industry.
one more bonus point (but unrelated to investment)
– Conservatives rename Federal department ‘Environment and Climate Change Canada” back to just “Environment Canada” as it always was before Liberal’s ridiculous green policy nonsense.
Not to rain on your Beavertail and Poutine Parade there Garth BUT you do realize the country you are comparing Canada to, that you allude will not be doing so well, is its
LARGEST Trading Partner.
Let that sink in Big Guy.
Still, I am happy BoC did what they did and my Canadian and Canadianish ETFs powering ahead YTD, even my Foreign Devil US ETF.
2 headwinds I see this year for Canada are:
1. Financial Sector. I mean for the 1Y data they are sucking fart$ out of a dead goats a$$hole – no other way to put it either than blunt:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=1Y
BUT there is reason for optimism with the Big 5 Banks, YTD:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=YTD
2. Oil Price.
The latter will spur inflation. Jan 1 to mid-July +30% increase expected and so far tracking ahead of analyst predictions.
Oil will fuel inflation, a lot. I think not just make inflation sticky, like increase it.
It isn’t over yet Garth but as you point out, reason for optimism and I agree.
We’ll see how it all shakes out. Better picture in mid-2023 and pretty sure that’s what Tiff is thinking as well.
Fingers crossed.
#1 Faron on 01.25.23 at 2:27 pm
#140 Sail Away on 01.25.23 at 2:01 pm
#134 Faron on 01.25.23 at 1:42 pm
Lol. My arms are twice as big as yours, but you’re way mouthier. Let’s call it a draw.
——–
Wow, responds with insinuated violence aimed at quieting speech he doesn’t like. Running out of clown emojis.
——–
My hands are bigger, too. Almost certainly. They’re huge.
Have you seen the price of maple syrup lately ? I’m not too sure about loading up …..
Calling the bottom in R/E a little premature, these rates take 6 months to a year to be felt in economy. I highly doubt real inflation will be anywhere near 3% by summertime. Wage inflation will force central banks hand imo. Lots more pain for the over leveraged.
Time to reflect, and about time too. Hopefully things will stay the same for a while, then get better.
As for real estate, the supply problem is really a listings problem. Too low, too slow, and what does sell is going for March 2022 valuation minus 10%. Agents are starving.
With that “floor” set, quite a few folks will sell this spring. If quite a few turns out to be more than a few, the glut might turn into another 5% discount at selling time, but decent volumes and a minor spike in Audi sales (oops, I mean leases).
You are delusional if you believe for an instant that Canada’s economy is in better shape than US.
The work market is also tight in the US and I would believe it is far less dependent on the public sector which in this country is unsustainable and sucking the life out of the private sector.
The US also has a RE bubble, but it’s a dwarf compared to the grotesque dependance this country has in RE.
Household financials are in far better shape in the US.
Public debt? Just once do the exercise of calculating how much of your taxes goes to service public debts, vs what it would be in the US. You’ll be surprised at the difference.
The implosion of our public heath care system is well under way, yet there is a lot more to come. People are suffering unnecessarily, even dying on waiting list, this is absolutely nothing to brag about.
Canada is losing tens of thousands of highly skilled individuals to the US each year, not the other way around.
Canada reversed age pyramid is worse the US and immigration will not fix that.
US economy is freer and therefore more responsive the our state protected cartels economy is, but at least it does fix itself much quicker and them moves on, leaving us in the dust. This will happen again.
Buyers and sellers waiting for the bottom may just have seen it arrive.
Time to buy?
Felix is a handsome young fellow!
So what happens to the Syrup Dollar when our rates pause, and the Americans keep on raising?
German Panzers in Ukraine and Mr Housing Bear calling the bottom when it’s still unaffordable for most Canadians. What a week.
NATO is sending in Tanks to Ukraine – things are going to get alot more worse. Russia will be counter aggressively…
50 TANKS will change nothing.
Read Wikipedia about the KURSK tank battle, and the numbers used..
But I thought it took 18 months to feel the full effects on the housing market of an interest rate increase.
#134 Jagius
That you can’t see this might explain your constant harassment of Sail Away. That, and the fact he represents everything you are not. He an accomplished, secure, Alpha Male. You, a fart smeller… That you can’t see this might explain your constant harassment of Sail Away. That, and the fact he represents everything you are not.
He an accomplished, secure, Alpha Male. You, a fart smeller…
————————-
You’re kidding, right?
According to the OECD, Tiff’s “stall” will last until past 2040. Dead last in the G20 for years to come. That’s encouraging, eh? In and of itself, that should warrant a change of government / direction.
What a difference a day makes ….
Yesterday’s post –
“This week it hits 4.5%. Yes, a 1,700% increase. The kids never imagined this could happen.”
Today’s post –
“As you likely know (and as foretold here) the CB rate just popped a quarter point (puny) to 4.5%”
From a 1700% increase from a puny quarter point.
So much drama Garth. Is this really you writing this or Chatgpt?
All correct. Deal with it. – Garth
Thanks Garth. The economic spring is compressed and will release. Markets have been mostly flat since May 2022, when we started our B&D Heloc borrow to invest portfolio (currently +3%, but 2.5% is divvie).
Lots of good value out there now. Don’t bet against Elon.
I am currently recovering from COVID (Day 12) after managing to avoid it for three years. Wiped me out completely for the first few days and I’m still sick and infectious. No clue where I picked it up. Not relevant now is it? That said, it’s a nasty virus and I’m deeply grateful to be quadruple vaccinated (or maybe it’s five now).
After “Are you having trouble breathing?” it was the second question I was asked by medical personnel. “Oh good” they all responded with relief when I said yes, “That’ll help.”
COVID vaccines don’t mean you can’t contract the disease (similar to flu vaccines) we know but they can and do lessen the severity of the symptoms, which vary wildly according to the host. I have a “mild” version I’ve been told but now I never want to know what moderate or severe feels like, because I’m guessing that’s when you hightail it to Emerg. It sure is easy to see how COVID can go sideways fast. I’m convinced I would have ended up in the ICU without.
If only public health would be more transparent when providing updated COVID numbers, and say what precentage among the ICU admissions and subsequent deaths were unvaccinated. (Physicians are relieved when hearing you’re vaccinated for the record.) It strikes me as a complete dereliction of duty to not reveal this information to the public now. They know, but won’t say. It’s a blatant dereliction of duty.
We live in strange times, COVID is not over and we’re fortunate to live in this country where public health still matters, that I can be vaccinated easily as needed and that I can get medical attention when it’s warranted. Call me a happy Canadian. Everyone should be so fortunate.
#VaccinesWork
The rates have plateaued.
Real estate will continue it’s slide down the slippery slope the rates have created. Dont think the bottom is in.
Why is nobody talking about mortgage renewals in 2023 Or wage price Spiral along with service sector inflation sticky at 4 Percent? Rates head higher in q3.
Unfortunately for us , even if RE migth’ve found bottom it is still way to high and we need for the RE to stay as is ,no increase in prices for a minimum of 10 years so inflation can catch up in terms of wages.
We also need the condos to come down from the ludicrous $1,000+/sqft to a more reasonable $300-$500 /sqft a bit higher then where the detached are.Townhomes are somewhere in between so they should come down as well.
And before anyone jumps in; the cost of Quartz countertops ,custom kitchens and wood floors are insignificant in the grand scheme of things. You would save maybe 5% at builder cost. Pennies on the dollar and the builder would just pocket the difference anyway, we are talking here about the people who skimp on runing an extra electrical circuit ,or ethernet , or painting the garage and other such nonsense.
I think they paused because too many Canadians were hitting their trigger rate. So BOC indeed answers to the real estate market.
A soft landing will be extremely difficult, but it’s possible.
Remember this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gimli_Glider
We can do it, Canada!!
As Steven Tyler would scream,”Dream On!!!” With all the wage pressures,spending needed for everything under the sun ,there may be a lull in rates but 2 years from now 4.5% will look low. It is low historically anyway so 6,6.5 or even 7% is so happening in 2025 and the feds/BOC are afraid of it too but what are they gonna do? Tell us that? Not a chance. We may see 2% inflation again but not from these piddly rates—get a grip!
#14 Marco on 01.25.23 at 2:46 pm
My aged, diabetic father had an accident at home and severely wounded his foot, which became badly infected. Two visits and one overnight stay at emerg, eight morning visits to the hospital for iv antibiotics and wound treatment, and now receiving daily home care visits from a community nurse for a few months. Total cost: free. In the USA, this would have likely bankrupted him and financially ruined us. Health care perspective is needed.
Nonsense. You are repeating the great Canadian myth about US healthcare. Everyone 65 and older is covered by Medicare. Those unable to work or low income are covered by Medicaid. Seems propaganda in Canada is working well
Hi Garth, I say this with the atmost respect, you have been wrong in the past so hoping this is the case when it comes to housing reaching the bottom, with oil set on a path of steady increases, I don’t think inflation will reach the predicted 3% at year end, I think we have ways… to go, fingers crossed for all those looking to buy homes at more reasonable and affordable levels!
“just a ‘stall’ in growth, which will be 1% this year and 2% thereafter.”
1% growth, while inflation is over 6%.
Hilarious.
“Economists use many different methods to measure how fast the economy is growing. The most common way to measure the economy is real gross domestic product, or real GDP. GDP is the total value of everything – goods and services – produced in our economy. The word “real” means that the total has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.” (Bank of Canada) The joke is on you. – Garth
While the BOC does try to spin a hopeful message, they did also say this:
“Overall, we view the risks around our inflation forecast as balanced, but with inflation still well above our target, we continue to be more concerned about the upside risks. If these upside risks materialize, we are prepared to raise interest rates further.”
So home prices in Canada have increased 65% faster than incomes since 2005, but Garth thinks the bottom is in? Even after the correction GTA home prices are still up over 300% since 2005, outperforming growth stocks and rising multiples higher than inflation rates. Canadian homes are still selling for twice their American equivalents. Must be the great Canadian weather? Funny that Garth was so wrong for years while home prices rose to the stratosphere. I believe he will be wrong again in calling the bottom here.
Go Canada. We have a good country, we have our poblems, but they are fixable.
US has 10% more of the population that is obese than Canada does – that is 40 million people .
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n623
Stop telling people Canada’s government did a great job during COVID. Nothing any western government did had any impact because the rules were ineffective. Look to Korea for what was necessary to actually reduce transmission.
Garth….Finland and Sweden joined NATO.
******************
Not yet!
In Europe health care is free. We are not special. According to the WHO we rank no 30 and US 37. Nobody ever thinks of France Spain Italy Denmark Marta Singapore. Canadians are so obsessed with the US
Lol at the quote”Health care is free in Canada”
The average individual can expect to pay $4,894. Of course, due to the progressive nature of Canada’s tax system, the amounts families pay for health care depends on their incomes. Specifically, the bottom 10 per cent of income-earners will only pay $471 dollars for health care while the top 10 per cent will pay almost $40,000.
What a morose bunch of victims come to this blog. I need to attract happier people. Open to suggestions. – Garth
“First, it’s really, really, really unlikely Tiff will pivot and goose the cost of money again in a few months. That would take a meaningful jump in inflation”
I think inflation will stagnate around 3.5 to 4%. He will need to move again after failing to crack below 3.5%
Off topic.
One thing I learned today is that Ruskies are backdooring into Italia via Malta.
Talked to this Russian woman at the Departures gate, apparently in Finance and Commodities, who knew a lot a whole lot about Lavrov and Zakharova whom I both follow on Twitter. A lot of Ruskies on that flight.
I asked her about the EU cap price on Russian oil and enforcement via Marine Insurance if it was having an effect (I knew that it was) and she said yes, that is very hard to find ships to carry Russian oil.
If anything slows Russia down it will be fewer funds for their war effort in Ukraine … and that’s a good thing.
She was going to Venice and her buddy from London, also in Finance and Commodities, meeting her there. Gave her some tips about Venice she did know about.
She did not have a Schengen Visa but did have a Russian passport.
Oh well …
#6 paddy on 01.25.23 at 2:34 pm
“We’ve raised rates rapidly and now is the time to pause and reflect…”just like he said:
“Our message to Canadians is that interest rates are very low and they’re going to be there for a long time,” back in 2020….
i wouldn’t get too comfortable….
…..
I would. When things change, smart people change. – Garth
…………
He also said: “To be clear, this is a conditional pause—it is conditional on economic developments evolving broadly in line with our MPR outlook. If we need to do more to get inflation to the 2% target, we will. ” though this has not been mentioned much. It does give them an “out” to change their mind…and avoid the “bad press” they received when they began increasing rates unexpectedly.
I highly doubt that the RE bottom is in yet for a very simple reason:
Psychology has not changed. Until there is a hate-on for houses as investments there is no bottom.
US healthcare
in 2007, Medicare Fraud Strike Force Teams began to be established in various locations across the nation considered to be hotbeds of fraud activity with the goal of harnessing the collective resources of Federal, State, and local law enforcement entities to prevent and combat health care fraud, waste, and abuse. Strike Force “takedowns” often involve dozens of defendants involved in elaborate enterprise-wide fraud schemes. Strike Force Teams currently operate in Miami; Los Angeles; Detroit; Houston; Brooklyn; Baton Rouge and New Orleans; Tampa and Orlando; Chicago; Dallas; Washington, D.C.; Newark and Philadelphia; and the Appalachian Region.
In FY 2018 alone, investigative efforts of the FBI resulted in over 812 operational disruptions of criminal fraud organizations and the dismantlement of the criminal hierarchy of more than 207 health care fraud criminal enterprises.
Understand healthcare fraud in the U.S. | Thomson Reuters
https://legal.thomsonreuters.com › insights › infographics
According to the United States Department of Justice, the cost of healthcare fraud in the U.S. is close to $100 billion a year. Explore the types of fraud …
Insurance Fraud Costs the U.S. $308.6 Billion Annually
https://insurancefraud.org
Insurance fraud is the crime we all pay for, whether through higher premiums, law enforcement expenses, court costs, and in medical care.
https://insurancefraud.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Impact-of-Insurance-Fraud-on-the-U.S.-Economy-Report-2022-8.26.2022.pdf
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Wednesday, July 20, 2022
Justice Department Charges Dozens for $1.2 Billion in Health Care Fraud
Nationwide Coordinated Law Enforcement Action to Combat Telemedicine, Clinical Laboratory, and Durable Medical Equipment Fraud
==========================
will this become the largest fraud ?
Adani loses billions after short-seller report
@ 36 Carrie:
I am currently recovering from COVID (Day 12) … Wiped me out completely for the first few days and I’m still sick …I’m deeply grateful to be quadruple vaccinated (or maybe it’s five now).
_______________________________________
I had Covid before vax was offered, but it lasted only 5 days – kind of like a bad flu…was not a big deal for me…hope you recover soon.
“Finland and Sweden joined NATO.” – not really. Turkey will veto that.
And, sadly, most other statements are also as parallel to reality:
>Last month Canada added 104,000 new jobs. Contrast that with the States where only 223,000 new hires took place despite having more than ten times the population. We rocked. – it depends what jobs they were (high-quality, or gig economy, barely keeping people afloat). It thus also depends on how people can live with their earnings. In that sense we (Canada) might not rock as much as them (US).
> The unemployment rate here is currently 5%, just a hair about its all-time low. And this is despite almost a year of interest rate increases and global economic turmoil – it depends on how the unemployment rate is being calculated. Generally, the government in power has incentives to tweak numbers in their favour.
>Our official inflation rate was 8.1% and is now nearing 6%. The CB says it will be 3% by summer, and a nothingburger by a year from now. Compare that to Europe. – compare what here, with what in Europe? Europe is large and multifaceted. Compared to the overall evolution of prices over 6-8 years, Europe is in a WAY better position than Canada, where inflation we higher since before Covid (because the CAD plummeted in value since before the pandemic).
>Our stock market’s been under pressure, like every other one in the world, but lately it’s outperformed the American one. Last year the S&P500 shed 20%. The Nasdaq was whacked with a 33% loss. But Bay Street lost just 8.5% – and it now doing okay. – yup, that sounds like a re-do from 2008. “Our banks are very conservative and less performant, but also stable.”. So let’s refrain from risk and innovation, eh?
> Everybody has debt. It’s a big global problem. But the US is hitting its borrowing ceiling and has debt equal to 120% of its economy. Our debt is a disgrace and has mushroomed under Trudeau, but sits at a far more tolerable 70% of the economy. Plus, we have no crippling government shutdown looming. No George Santos. – perhaps, but when comparing with Europe and the US, the burden of paying off the interest on the national debt here in Canada sits rather on the shoulders of the taxpayer, whereas in the EU a larger share is paid by corporations. But we can’t have that here, eh?
>Maybe health care waiting times are awful and the system is stressed. But it’s still free. – is it, though? Or are we paying it with our taxes? And…what good is it if one cannot access it on time? Lots of new Canadians and not-so-new Canadians pay taxes in Canada, but choose to treat themselves abroad – are we really rocking? Raise your hands those who think our Canadian health system is delivering!
> Speaking of health, people in Canada can expect to live a life averaging 81.2 years. American life expectancy is 77.2. – we’re focusing on quantity rather than quality, eh? And what if we’d compare with other nations? Then we’re not so golden, eh?
It must really suck to be you. I’m feeling fine. – Garth
Garth, it’s clear that many deplorables in steerage come to this comments section as a form of therapy to spew their own trauma on others. So many will post here more than once daily, totally unnecessarily, making lots of extra work for the Amazons and messing up the place for others
In honour of Bell Let’s Talk Day, please, all of you multiple commenters with ego and insecurity issues, just reach out to your local mental health resources instead of dumping so much nonsense into the in-box here.
https://letstalk.bell.ca/
shoot a moose but can’t win the draw. That’s good news for the moose though as I have a great batting average.
#50 Victoria on 01.25.23 at 3:48 pm
:):):):):)
Its ’cause we’re uninteresting, sissy wannabees with no imagination…
Feels like an echo…anybody hear that?
Og
Yup and when gas prices go up in the summer + some other unforeseen event the Tiffer will throw his hands up and say “how were we supposed to know”?
These guys have no clue, the idea that we can come off 15 years of moonshot with a soft landing is astounding. He has this wrong like he had transitionary inflation wrong. Or, his sole mandate is to drive financial assets.
The main mandates are positive employment, GDP growth and currency stability. Check, check and check. – Garth
Garth, Is it possible to hit 3% in the summer and yet have record high rent, groceries and $2.50 gas? I’m actually being serious here.. .
3% is the rate of increase, not an absolute number. – Garth
Let’s play: Make the Left’s Head Spin.
Part 1.
US figures could be called into question owing to the for-profit hospitals coding people into those higher brackets with better insurance reimbursements (all it took was a nose swab test)
Part 2.
Florida was mostly wide open a party state. Kanadians fleeing tyranny headed here.
Leftee California was locked down as they wanted it.
The finally tally?
Florida population 21.78million
Deaths: 84,927
California population 39.24million
Deaths: 99,773
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-united-states-coronavirus-outbreak/
Part 3.
Remind your Local Leftists that they need fall to their knees and thank Donald John Trump the 45th President of the USA for his Operation Warp speed which lead to the repeated injection this Orange Man’s ‘Orange Juice’ into their arms.
Their children will sing songs of praise and throw flowers at his feet.
Speaking of health, people in Canada can expect to live a life averaging 81.2 years. American life expectancy is 77.2. Maybe less in Chicago.
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4 years is a lot, if you hang it on at the end.
When you’re a young punk, it’s nothing.
Gotta be fairly healthy, though.
#30 Any of the schmucks posting here ever served – 50 tanks on 01.25.23 at 3:11 pm
NATO is sending in Tanks to Ukraine – things are going to get alot more worse. Russia will be counter aggressively…
50 TANKS will change nothing.
Read Wikipedia about the KURSK tank battle, and the numbers used..
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How is the battle of Kursk relevant today? You are doing the same mistake Putin is making: you are trying to fight the old war.
How is Russia going to be “more” aggressive? Which army will they deploy?
Kandos. Monthly condo/HOA/Strata feels always verge toward $1 per square foot as the building ages.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/article-toronto-condo-owners-slapped-with-big-special-fees/
In 2022, owners of condos at Guildwood Terrace (MTCC 1013 at 3233 Eglinton Ave. East) received notice that they would need to pony up extra cash above their regular monthly fees to pay for a $12.5-million “building envelope” project that would include replacing all the windows in the complex’s two towers. The cost per resident ranged between about $25,000 and close to $50,000 depending on the size of the apartment. For some long-time residents of the building, which opened in 1992, the numbers come as a shock.
—–
On: the ‘Hospital Capacity”. Our rulers remain baffled!
As reddit notes: “There is no provincial law or regulation requiring this. That means that every single public hospital in Ontario has independently decided to impose a requirement. One hundred percent of them.
.’Ready, willing and able’: COVID-19 vaccine policies at Ontario hospitals are keeping some health workers from filling dire staff shortages (ctvnews.ca)
— But if you are sick head on in. Science at work.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/several-provinces-considering-allowing-covid-19-positive-health-workers-to-stay-on-job-1.5721990
Published Dec. 29, 2021 6:54 a.m. EST
Yesterday, Quebec Health Minister Christian Dube announced some health workers who have tested positive for COVID-19 will be allowed to stay on the job.
Happy to be a Canadian. Not that “We Suck Less,” would look great on a bumper, but it’s true and the best we can hope for after all of the chaos the last few years have imposed on the world.
Our healthcare isn’t free but paid for through progressive taxation and as it’s universal, is cheaper and more efficient than U.S. It’s on life support, for sure, due to pandemic and demographics, but we are still better off for having it.
Tiff did the right thing by pausing and thankfully I locked in a 5% return for 12 months on a term deposit at the credit union, last week! Hooray!
DELETED
BoC wants to get inflation to 2%..remember these famous words from the ship’s captain. ‘Among the top challenges for the central bank is weak inflation, currently running at 0.7% based on October CPI data. This is well below the bank’s 1-3% target range and Macklem said it is projected to remain below 2% into 2023.’
https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/boc-interest-rates-will-stay-very-low-for-a-long-time/335696
Zelensky along with his wife Marlene Dietrich have sunk their teeth into the Russian bear. Nato too. The bear is thrashing around. Its getting more dangerous to let go than hang on. The bear can’t stop thrashing because if he does Nato can’t & won’t stop chewing.
Meanwhile back at the power couples underground bunker: Burnsy: CIA Director & past U.S. Ambassador to Russia pays a visit. Helicopters fall from sky carrying Interior Govt. Ministers. Great purges occur upon unworthy minor Ministers. Panzers appear on the skyline to save the day. And that was only this week? Lotsa shake left in this bear. Lotsa new episodes to thrill us.
BoC: Interest rates will stay “very low for a long time”..sure,, and inflation is caused by the war in Ukraine..
They are low. The long-term average for mortgage rates is 8%. – Garth
Is this the same Governor Macklem that said rates would rise slowly and that in 2021 said inflation will taper down to 2% by the end of 2022? Anyways I hope “its different this time”, and now he knows what he talking about.
If inflation is down to 3% by July I’ll eat my hat. More rate increases are coming or we’ll have inflation well above the 2% target rate permanently.
Health care is not for free , figure out who is paying.104 000 new jobs , details please , permanent, temporary , agencies , low paid .
@#66 Joseph R. on 01.25.23 at 4:36 pm
#30 Any of the schmucks posting here ever served – 50 tanks on 01.25.23 at 3:11 pm
NATO is sending in Tanks to Ukraine – things are going to get alot more worse. Russia will be counter aggressively…
50 TANKS will change nothing.
Read Wikipedia about the KURSK tank battle, and the numbers used..
——————————————————–
How is the battle of Kursk relevant today? You are doing the same mistake Putin is making: you are trying to fight the old war.
How is Russia going to be “more” aggressive? Which army will they deploy?
+++++++++++++
the ruskies have used up all they’re canon fodder from the gulags. are they going to start send young men and women to the frontlines en masse? doubt it.
I can’t believe that low is in for GTA real estate, prices are still more than 80% of the population can afford. If prices were to increase from here, what would have been accomplished, inflation would increase again and people would be asking for huge pay increases in order to live. If this is a low, employees will demand wfh to offset these high prices and you will lose a lot of worker work ethic due to a feeling of helplessness.
@ Garth
“What a morose bunch of victims come to this blog. I need to attract happier people. Open to suggestions. – Garth”
+++
Free hotdogs and pop?
Most “dogs” would sell their soul for free hotdogs and pop.
yaaaa,50 tanks! ..then there is this…https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/01/21/russian-bombers-could-pummel-ukraine-without-going-anywhere-near-ukraine/
‘At the very least, the Russian air force should have 76 Bear and Blackjack bombers that could fire Kh-101s at Ukraine without ever going anywhere near Ukraine.’
Ponzie should check his Pickleball Membership…
Someone might be playing free pickleball on his dime…
https://www.reuters.com/article/austria-netherlands-hacker/dutch-hacker-obtained-virtually-all-austrians-personal-data-police-say-idUSKBN2U41IA
DELETED (Russian troll)
‘It seems to me the worse is over’ declared with Austrian accent the governor of California in the movie 2012 just before the state started sinking into the ocean.
So the inflation is over but we have to buy now commodity/resource based economy?
As it seems we are doing some cherry picking here and as we are still far from making any decent cherry brandy German style, here are the facts:
1. BOC is the quickest to increase rates by a sole reason: It will be the first to start cutting again.
2. Hot job market shows that austerity is not working. Hot job market drives inflation up, not down. You need to kill the job market in order to start fighting inflation.
3. Canadian official inflation peak is 8.1 %. In Europe – 10 %. I guess Europe lies less about inflation as it is calculated differently. How inflation can be 8.1 % when rents increased by 20 % +, food by 35 % worldwide and as much in the store near you is beyond me.
4. The public debt is double the federal one. Check it here:
https://www.debtclock.ca/
If you count the provincial debt, for which you are on the hook as well, things start to look bad, and if you include private debt, the total debt is one of the worst amongst ‘developed’ countries.
Let’s show some integrity here when we speak about public debt being the federal debt only. That is not true.
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/private-debt-to-gdp
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/government-debt-to-gdp
Total debt: 400 % of GDP (112 public, 285 private)
5. As for the wonderful health care that is free: Sure.
As far as you don’t need it, life is good.
Else prepare the big bucks for treatment abroad. many tens of thousands of USD in my case and that 12-15 years ago for non life threatening illness for family member that was politely declined as non-critical by the single health care provider.
So enjoy life folks, all is good apparently, having rates at peak at 4.5 % while inflation of necessities is at least triple that and the job market is on fire is apparently ‘sound’ decision by the same people who said 1.5 year ago that rates would not rise for a long time.
Make no mistake: Rates will be going down despite the raging inflation and no, inflation will not decline to 2 % with a hot job market.
I said that they will lie about inflation and let it run high and I was right.
I am worried about Mohammed Al-Jadaan not just posturing that Saudi Arabia will actually be trading oil in anything other than USD. I am thinking Iraq and poor old Gaddafi in Libya. This is big news right?? Plastered all over the media and financial blogs I bet.
Thanks for the blog Garth
And yes I am very happy to live in Canada.
All the bumps and warts included.
I am sad we have no real political leaders.
Agree with most of what you’ve said over the years.
Did not believe most of your forecasts, but they have an uncanny ability to come true.
Overall keep up the good work.
As for inflation I still laugh everyone said it was transitionary. But no one said over what time frame. I am now convinced inflation was temporary.
I don’t agree with Ed’s call on Ukraine being rebuilt anytime soon. As I have read…. people forget Russia is in for the long haul they can wait until leaders change in the US and the west tires of war. They can throw 100s of thousands of men and in the end Ukraine will run out men and supplies. Sad but true.
I also believe it’s possible what they call a small technical nuclear weapon will be launch, the US will retaliate and then peace.
Cheers thanks for reading
If Canada is done with rate increases and the US still has more to go isn’t our dollar going to take a hit and thus stoke inflation?
#134 the Jaguar on 01.25.23 at 1:34 pm
re: #128 Faron/ Resident Hysteric @ 01.25.23 at 11:59
That you can’t see this might explain your constant harassment of Sail Away. That, and the fact he represents everything you are not. He an accomplished, secure, Alpha Male. You, a fart smeller…
———
Thanks Jag! Abusers are rampant on the interwebz. It’s a sad state of affairs.
Stay alert, stay alive.
22% haircut on houses that were already massively over inflated and saw HUGE run ups during c o v i d…
we better pray this is nowhere near the bottom.
You will know in three weeks. – Garth
Really everybody in Canada has debt !
Stats please!
What do you mean by that, that was a loaded statement!
Myself I have had no debt as in bank loans etc. for over 18 years!
“Economists use many different methods to measure how fast the economy is growing. The most common way to measure the economy is real gross domestic product, or real GDP. GDP is the total value of everything – goods and services – produced in our economy. The word “real” means that the total has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.” (Bank of Canada) The joke is on you. – Garth
++++++++++++++++
No wonder they always get it wrong. They should just go grocery shopping and fill up the car like the rest of us do. They might come up with the real numbers.
Today I really regret trying to provide people with financial information. This comment section is a cacophony of wailing, insecure, angry, malinformed crybabies. Most people in the world would give a kidney to be in your position. Pathetic. – Garth
It must really suck to be you. I’m feeling fine. – Garth
The poor folks that can’t afford food are also fine, I guess.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/canadians-stealing-high-priced-food-grocery-stores-232257562.html
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/if-youre-thinking-of-immigrating-to-canada-dont-42-sobeys-salad-1499-pc-maple-syrup-draws-anger-from-ontario-grocery-shoppers-172418256.html
Or maybe they are not hungry at all, just thieves and we should tell them to:
Suck it up and move on.
Man up.
Stop Complaining.
So unfortunate.
Do not let the door hit you on your way out.
Food Secure Canada estimates that almost 2.5 million Canadians live without secure access to food.
https://foodsecurecanada.org/resources-news/news-media/fsc-news/too-many-canadian-kids-are-going-hungry?gclid=Cj0KCQiAw8OeBhCeARIsAGxWtUw_6CWDadiByH6jNiVw0Ir4IsRThmditkpUywzwyztPmWrAVMlzBbIaAhaSEALw_wcB
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That part about the bottom of the housing market and the booming economy was really entertaining.
Wow! Just wow! Thats it?
So 1.5 mil dollar houses are here to stay,……….
I’m kinda wondering at this point…who’s the graeterfool????
Those whiskers are magnificent! (Felix, not you Garth, although I’m sure yours are adequate).
Haven’t been in the comments for quite awhile – see the Faron/Sail Away bromance is still hot as ever. Geez guys, just get a room already.
Beautiful tuxedo cat. Felix has the right paw poised in the strike position, lol.
Garth mentions some positive data on Canada, and a swath of posts materialize, bemoaning the sad state of affairs.
This is why politicians harp on negativity, and often win. They are playing to your emotional weaknesses.
There is a ton of good data pointing to overall improvements for humanity. Here is just one:
https://singularityhub.com/2018/07/01/new-evidence-that-the-world-really-is-getting-better/
Today I really regret trying to provide people with financial information. This comment section is a cacophony of wailing, insecure, angry, malinformed crybabies. Most people in the world would give a kidney to be in your position. Pathetic. – Garth
+++++++++++++++++
truth.
they are somewhat entertaining though.
#14 Marco on 01.25.23 at 2:46 pm
My aged, diabetic father had an accident at home and severely wounded his foot, which became badly infected. Two visits and one overnight stay at emerg, eight morning visits to the hospital for iv antibiotics and wound treatment, and now receiving daily home care visits from a community nurse for a few months. Total cost: free. In the USA, this would have likely bankrupted him and financially ruined us. Health care perspective is needed.
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Every State is different, but less so since Obamacare, of which Trump’s people made a number of improvements to…
In Minnesota he would have been admitted from ER. IV anti-biotics, an MRI and surgery. If they could close and stich the wound, he would have been out in 4 days or so with just office follow ups and the stiches out in 4 weeks or so.
Average Silver Plan Insurance would run about $500/month per adult, less tax credits that run out at about $90k/yr income. The event would max out his annual deductibles at about $6k – $8k, with discounts on that depending upon income.
Fast, efficient and hardly enough to bankrupt someone, and no one dying in the waiting room of the ER.
[email protected]
The earnings disappointments pile up, and inflation rises due to China’s re-opening. With Powell faced with the impossible choice of sacrificing credibility to fight inflation or letting it spiral out of control, a devastating stock market crash of 60% appears inevitable.
Garth…
1. Governor Macklem says inflation will continue to fade this year, down to 3%.
2. “We’ve raised rates rapidly and now is the time to pause and reflect…”
****************
1. How he can lie to us like that? How can inflation be reduced by the current rate, which is 50% below current inflation and at such a frantic pace from 6% to 3% by the end of the year? But the real inflation is 10%, if you look at our wallets.
2. Another lie. They need time not to think, but for people with debts to get used to paying more.
And here is my forecast – by the end of the year the rate will be raised by at least another 1%. Somewhere in the fall will start.
Gang, c’mon let’s stop irritating Garth. Remember, he provides us with our daily entertainment.
Everyone submit a joke to cheer him up.
Garth, how do you kill a circus?
Answer: Go straight for the juggler
Good positive post today Garth. I just read Jermey Grantham’s back soon to meat grinder post. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4572058-after-timeout-back-to-meat-grinder?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aarticles_youve_read%7Cline%3A1
I think I have need for some medicinal Canuck whiskey.
#93 Sheesh on 01.25.23 at 5:29 pm
Haven’t been in the comments for quite awhile – see the Faron/Sail Away bromance is still hot as ever. Geez guys, just get a room already.
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Haha. My irresistibility triggers obsession from dogs and the odd person. It is not mutual, although I do like dogs.
If this was the bottom in housing, wouldn’t everyone, their mom and their dog be rushing out to open houses to lever up? You know, put money where mouth is.
If course they are not. 0% rates are not going to bring back the housing rocketship, sorry housing bulls, you had a 25 year run (hope you sold) but the that demand has already been pulled forward. Everytime you go back to 0% the credit impulse is weaker and weaker.
And unemployment is the last indicator to fall before a recession. Author knows this.
It must really suck to be you. I’m feeling fine. – Garth
It doesn’t really suck to be me, at least not from my perspective. And I’m glad that you’re feeling fine. But that sadly doesn’t help the many who are suffering, nor does it provide veracity to your statements. And for many others, ignorance is indeed bliss. They are sticking their heads in the sand…
Positively positive article. Happy things are improving. We need it.
Lots of bold statements, most are wrong
Finland and Sweden have not joined Nato, and will not for some time. Europe is in big trouble, both financially and mentally.
Sending tanks is not going to end conflict, but inflame it more. Sooner, rather than later, the will be no Ukes to fight, so no matter the hardware, there will be no boots on the ground. There have already mobilized 700K and doing another round right now, catching all men by police. As to losses, direct and indirect, it’s over 300K and rising. Russia is 4 times the size, so you know who has more manpower.
With escalation, prices on commodities will rise once again. Inflation will follow.
Real estate is not affordable and first time buyers cannot qualify for 1M properties.
“Maybe health care waiting times are awful and the system is stressed. But it’s still free.”
LOL! Ask any employer in BC with a payroll over 500K how “free” our health care system is. They’ll tell ya.
How times change, from “Trust but verify” to “Roll those Abrams on up to the border”. Scary stuff, run by very few people who remember what truly big conflict actually means.
re: Buyers and sellers waiting for the bottom may just have seen it arrive.
huh?
I thought rates take some time to travel through the economy. That is why Tiff is reflecting to see how much of an effect the rates have on housing and the general economy.
Thin the call that the bottom has immediately arrived after this presumed final hike is grossly premature
As long as we can “Just Transition” (“Justition” maybe?) Trudeau to the unemployment line soon, Canada should be ok. We’ve got oil and gas. And lots of other stuff.
A pause in interest rates is in order. Not because negative rates (they are still negative in real terms) are going to hem in inflation, but for political reasons. Best to leave rates where they are until after the next election, or Tiff could be accused of “interfering” with the election. Well, pretty much everything influences elections, but you don’t want to be accused of such. From an economic standpoint it is probably best to see what the increases so far are doing as well. There really hasn’t been much time for the higher rates to settle through the system, so it is best to wait for some data. So Election + Data = Pause. But it don’t mean either inflation or rates are going down any time soon.
As always, this blog is best when it stays off politics, especially European politics, of which most Canadians care very little and know next to nothing about, except what they are told to believe by the MSM. Therefore today’s post only gets 2 stars, despite the economic part being fairly good.
As to rebuilding Ukraine, I believe this will not happen.
First, there will be shortage of hands.
Second, Europe is eyeing Ukrainian market to export high added value goods, not to build factories. Very little residential damage outside of Donbass and Kharkov.
Ukraine’s debt to GDP is over 100%, nobody knows for sure, but nothing being produced now unless it’s used by military.
OK, OK, I get it Garth…
You’re toying with our heads here.
Interest rates are not falling, and sit at 4.5% overnight rate.
THANK GOD – I CAN DO MATH!!!
Tiff may have stuck his foot in his mouth again giving a little too much forward guidance – .i.e. now a grand pause, kind of like his previous forward guidance that rates would remain low for a long time, what is he trying to do juice the markets? what a dummy
not everyone agrees with him
One former Canadian central banker said interest rates may need to go even higher after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday moved rates to its highest level in 15 years while signalling a potential pause ahead.
“I think there’s a good chance that more will need to be done by way of interest rate increases,” said John Murray, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute and a former deputy governor at the Bank of Canada, in an interview with BNN Bloomberg Wednesday.
Murray said these stop-and-start rate hikes could deliver “more pain than might otherwise be necessary” when compared to a more steady course. “I just worry about a process that may in the end be a little too ‘stop-go,’” he said.
Yes Canada is the best country in the world no ands ,ifs, or buts. We are the best and then there are the rest and the best don’t rest. In other words GET TO WORK. I went to university for 6 years to get a lowing paying job but on the up side I got 4.4 percent increase on my pension last year and 6.9 percent this for 9 months work for 34 years. The best part was we were able to work our large cherry orchard in the south Okanagan
as well as fruit broker to Winnipeg all summer.
I probably had 150 blood transfusions when I had cancer. All free. A splenectomy, numerous hospital stays. All free.
Bloodwork galore. Free. I think people who slam our health care need to get really sick (sorry) to figure it out. Face death and get some perspective.
Most people in the world would give a kidney to be in your position. Pathetic. – Garth
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Nailed it. I have relatives here in Italia making it on €800/mo pension money. €1000 and you are considered “rolling in it”. Those are before tax numbers.
I liked it that you mentioned lower GDP growth Garth.
But you know, I’m not seeing it yet in January. You would expect to see some Earnings headwinds from my Canadian and Canadianish ETFs.
Instead, YTD I’m +2.7% to +8.8% (today’s close) with my ETFs incl. US. And that’s stock appreciation only.
I’m optimistic like you from what I’m seeing in real time.
Oh ya, and on oil, it will peak Jun/Aug about US $95/bbl and then come down later in the year to $85-$89.
To me that says if there is a slight increase in inflation, or sticky due to energy costs … inflation due to energy should abate in the last quarter of 2023.
—————
Maybe the CBs are providing GDP estimates (low growth) as in a Worst Case Scenario?
I’m starting to think so.
We’ll just have to wait and see by mid-2023.
– FWIW
John Pasalis, who hates Garth, is less optimistic than Garth about real estate. Nonetheless, he is the ultimate authority on RE and he says:
“[That’s] leading some housing investors to take on even more debt to manage the higher payments, including tapping private lenders, which can come with double-digit borrowing rates, to avoid having to sell a property in a down market.”
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/some-housing-investors-making-bad-decisions-await-lower-rates-131652688.html
I had no idea who this Tiff person was until I read about him here on your blog, G. I thought, with a name like Tiff, he’s probably a descendant of a Greek deity. You know, ripped, desired, educated from poets, good hugger….then I thought, him and I might be good buddies…talking about conquests and experiences…you know, goin’ for out for a few and and turnin’ on the magnetism ’till the whole place is smiling towards us…and the choice is ours at the end of the night!!!
Jury is still out…but dude needs to work on his persona…
Og
I honestly can’t see this being the bottom in housing.
Then again I must remind myself how totally and completely financially illiterate the average Canadian is.
(facepalm)
#19 Neo on 01.25.23 at 2:52 pm
People are living in Hiroshima and Nagasaki today. There is no reason Russia can not use tactical nukes today and repopulate the new Russian cities in the future.
Humans tend to use the tools they build.
**********
There are many reasons why Russian can’t [and hopefully won’t] use tactical nukes. Not least of which is that extensive Cold War computer wargaming suggests that any use, even tactical, escalates to total war. When the US bombed Japan, nobody else had nukes so no escalation was possible.
Listen to former top level US nuclear weapons guy Chuck Watson discuss the gaming they did and how this led to a toning down of the bellicose rhetoric of the Reagan administration.
Sure, Ukraine is not part of NATO and a tactical nuclear strike wouldn’t automatically lead to a counterstrike and escalation but does anyone really want to play that out? We don’t want to – can’t – go there.
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/17-chuck-watson-nuclear-war
A market “bottom”; there’s a laugh. Don’t you ever tire of playing good cop/bad cop, Garth?
re” #14 Marco on 01.25.23 at 2:46 pm and your diabetic father
I guess you are not aware there is medicare and medicaid for those over 65 in the USA, you have been brainwashed
Where is Felix? This is his day…
Wonder if Oaken Financial ( the squirrel bank) is increasing its GIC rates.
Or do I have to run into the hades of Toronto to sign a deal with Harold the Jewelry Buyer?
Forgot to mention, w.r.t. to CBs and my prior Comment Worst Case GDP growth scenario – I mean look at Italia and Germany.
Last year ISTAT (Italian StatCan) saying +0.1% GDP growth for 2023. Very late last year +0.3% and now from Bankitalia, revised to:
+0.6%.
Germany was supposed to go into recession in 2023 by -0.4% GDP. Today their Finance Minister revised that to +0.2% and no recession.
UK similar. Forecast was -1.3% for 2023. Just recently revised to -0.8%.
France 2023 forecast is 0.2% but could increase if inflation drops and short economic slowdown foreseen.
——————
Something is afoot and per the above, and it’s all good news.
Maybe Canada’s 2023 GDP growth forecast will be revised up as well? Canada and US CBs erring on the worst case scenario side?
Hope so.
Sir Garth:
You may be right, as usual. The problem is you did not cover the impact on the majority of workers.
“Our official inflation rate was 8.1% and is now nearing 6%. The CB says it will be 3% by summer, and a nothingburger by a year from now.”
My simple math would then find that inflation from September 2021 to September 2023 would total 11.1%.
Over that time what has the increase in worker wages in Canada been ?
You failed to mention Bank of Canada Governor stated that if wages gain 5% that interest rates may need to be again increased to stop the potential of a wage price spiral.
So workers are going to take at least a 6% cut in buying power, along with HELCO and mortgage rate increases ?
And yet the economy is going to be just “ducky” ?
Inflation is a government policy, that hurts the poor and helps uncontrolled government spending stay on course.
I would not be surprised if Canada is still on a Russian target list when it come to nuclear combat. Remember that. The price you pay for offending your neighbor may be more severe than you think.
I see I would have company if I said the rates will have to rise some more to beat inflation down.
I will go with no change in March, another 0.25 in April,
then 2 more 0.25ers over the 5 remaining dates in 2023.
Inflation will prove stubborn.
#44 “Growth” on 01.25.23 at 3:36 pm
“just a ‘stall’ in growth, which will be 1% this year and 2% thereafter.”
1% growth, while inflation is over 6%.
Hilarious.
“Economists use many different methods to measure how fast the economy is growing. The most common way to measure the economy is real gross domestic product, or real GDP. GDP is the total value of everything – goods and services – produced in our economy. The word “real” means that the total has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.” (Bank of Canada) The joke is on you. – Garth
++++++++++++++++
No wonder they always get it wrong. They should just go grocery shopping and fill up the car like the rest of us do. They might come up with the real numbers.
Today I really regret trying to provide people with financial information. This comment section is a cacophony of wailing, insecure, angry, malinformed crybabies. Most people in the world would give a kidney to be in your position. Pathetic. – Garth
++++++
Garth,
Forgive me please for questioning the integrity of these numbers.
The game is rigged. It is massaged. Manipulated.
The very people you note are full of accuracy and integrity here are entirely responsible for the real estate housing mess and asset inflation that has distorted things, at cost of massive debt growth.
We go to stores Garth. We buy things. We know this 6% inflation number is questionable at best.
But let’s go back to housing.
Why is this growth or inflation number to be trusted as accurate? And Frankenumber not?
So everyman and his dog is sending tanks to Ukraine.
I don’t see how this war ends peacefully?
Russia will not accept a loss, at least while Putin is alive and running the show.
Is this going to turn into a war of attrition?
Who runs out of bodies first?
Ending my self-imposed hiatus from commenting…
So how much higher is a 25 year mortgage payment at 6.0% versus 1.0%? It’s not 500% although the interest component rises 500% in this case.
The surprising answer according a mortgage amortization calculator is 70% higher. $639.81 per $100k versus the old $376.78
But, in theory that could push home prices down 41%. (640-377)/640
More bad, news, the amount going to principle declines massively which is why the payment is “only” up 70%.
Perhaps more realistic compare old 2% to new 5.5% 5 year and the payments are up 44% and prices need to drop 31% for the same monthly payment.
So, we are basically there in Toronto and besides with some wage gains the prices probably don’t have to drop 31%
Check a mortgage amortization payment schedule for yourselves
https://dominionlending.ca/calculators/payment-amount.php
Always check the math yourself if you capable of it.
Garth,
Pictures with cat remind me mine cats. Back home, I had two – one by one.
First one – I gave him name Mark Antony (same like Roman Politician). He was like on picture black with some white spots on his body and with green eyes. His face was black.
Second one (his name was simple – Karpusha) was completely black with yellow eyes.
Both was very brave and keep area close to my house free from other male cats. After fighting with other cats for territory sometimes i had to visit veterinary.
Well, inflation jumped a lot faster than anticipated so maybe it will fall faster than expected. However, I think inflationary pressures are going to take a bit more than a mere six months or so to allow the official number to drop to only 3% from the 6.3% posted for December 2022. Lots of folks looking for wage increases. Grocery costs are still heading up. Keeping in mind that Ukraine is a major wheat producer. Do not expect the war to end in time to seed the fields this year. Throw in the fact drought is still an issue in North America. Oil prices have been creeping upward.
As for RE, while one does expect folks to begin buying again the fact remains that the pool of people able to service those staggeringly high debt ratios is limited. Throw in the ‘new’ restrictions on debt service ratios etc. & I don’t see an RE stampede of unbridled buyers prancing through the posies any time soon.
I came home from school once and showed my parents a test result: 57%. They were obviously not happy. I told them that it was not such a bad score considering the class average was 53%. Then the reminded me that I had been provided with all sorts of advantages that virtually no other kid in the class had. Suddenly being slightly above average didn’t feel so good.
@#111 Vlad
“As to rebuilding Ukraine, I believe this will not happen.
First, there will be shortage of hands.”
+++
A shortage of hands?
Russia’s population has been in decline for almost a decade.
Alcoholism, obesity, aging demographics, etc.
Now?
We have Putin shovelling hundreds of thousands of young Russian men into the meat grinder of war….
I’d venture to say….. Russia’s population will continue to decline for decades to come.
The profile of Maui tourists
So I have profiled the typical tourist couple in (on) Maui this January.
Probably over 80% are in the WWW category. Wealthy, Wrinkled and White. (This is simple fact, just an observation.)
Not many young couples with or without kids – those which there are are probably mostly bunking in with wealthy boomer parents and in-laws.
People tend to think that almost everyone is struggling financially. Not so, Maui is packed.
I may write a little guidebook: “Maui on $1000 a day”. U.S. dollars naturally. Anyone want a copy?
Probably just because I never grew up in North America, but I never knew anything about Victorio Peak until last night.
Started watching the first episode of Gold, Lies and Videotape on Discovery Channel, I’d heard of White Sands Missile Range, saw it on the map when I visited the area a couple of times to places like Albuquerque and El Paso.
Enjoyed it and will continue to learn the history of the place.
Anyway, just like this blog, seems like they had a whole bunch of characters trying to pull some gold out of a crack…
M48BC
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Treasure claims.
Main article: Victorio Peak treasure
Milton “Doc” and Ova “Babe” Noss claimed to have discovered gold and artifacts inside the peak in 1933. Numerous books (viz., “The Gold House Trilogy” by John Clarence), news reports (see 60 Minutes and Unsolved Mysteries), and a 2023 docuseries “Gold, Lies & Videotape” purport to document the history of the discovery and disposition of the treasure.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victorio_Peak
Re: #27 Me on 01.25.23 at 3:05 pm
January or February 2024.
Actions speak louder than words. The caveat often left out of the news is the price of oil. I hope gasoline and diesel fall to under $1.30 a litre. (lol) But I know that prices have risen dramatically since 1998. (56.9 in Vanouver, 35 cents in Abbotsford) and even since the recent reverse in December.
The rate of inflation can go down but that doesn’t mean prices go back to the old normal. The price of disel is still high for everything we transport.
We have yet to see the full effects of increasing rates…so we don’t know what we don’t know yet.
Why don’t we just wait and see? Human nature getti g in the way, yet once again!
Russia was laughed at for bringing Tanks and now the West is supplying them a year later?? Things that make you go hmmm. The US tanks get shitty mileage and use airplane fuel to run the rocket engines. Something like 3 miles to the gallon and they need constant maintenance. The real folks are suffering while idiots on both sides dance around a proxy war. I stand with the civilians and soldiers being used as drone fodder with petulant children running the show once again both sides. We tell are chdren to sit down and talk things through, rights.
#130 Elon Fanboy on 01.25.23 at 7:49 pm
So everyman and his dog is sending tanks to Ukraine.
I don’t see how this war ends peacefully?
Russia will not accept a loss, at least while Putin is alive and running the show.
Is this going to turn into a war of attrition?
Who runs out of bodies first?
——–
Well,
We’ll see.
These tanks are sophisticated machines.
Ukrainians will need extensive training.
The White House says it could take up to five months.
A lot can happen in that time
Today’s post is the oh-so-Canadian obsession with telling ourselves that “we’re better than the Americans” (second only to hockey…)
As for the reasons behind Maple’s recent performance, a few comments:
– Last month Canada added 104,000 new jobs. Contrast that with the States where only 223,000 new hires took place despite having more than ten times the population. We rocked.
Good news! The bulk of the jobs were in the 15-24 demographic (69,000) and AB + ON account for roughly 67% of the growth. Does this signal widespread strength?
– The unemployment rate here is currently 5%, just a hair about its all-time low. And this is despite almost a year of interest rate increases and global economic turmoil
The exodus of people over 60 retiring at a historical rate is a strong contributor to more jobs becoming available than potential employees. This demographic trend will continue supporting low unemployment for a few years. Who gets to take credit for this one?
– Our official inflation rate was 8.1% and is now nearing 6%. The CB says it will be 3% by summer, and a nothingburger by a year from now. Compare that to Europe.
Thank low fuel prices for this, compared to Europe. Our landlocked hydrocarbons sell for a significant discount to those produced by countries that are actually able to export.
– Our stock market’s been under pressure, like every other one in the world, but lately it’s outperformed the American one. Last year the S&P500 shed 20%. The Nasdaq was whacked with a 33% loss. But Bay Street lost just 8.5% – and it now doing okay.
Once again, thank fossil fuels for supporting the market. Yes, oil and gas, which nobody so far can live without.
– Everybody has debt. It’s a big global problem. But the US is hitting its borrowing ceiling and has debt equal to 120% of its economy. Our debt is a disgrace and has mushroomed under Trudeau, but sits at a far more tolerable 70% of the economy. Plus, we have no crippling government shutdown looming. No George Santos.
Yup. IF Canada controlled the world’s reserve currency, like the US now, I wonder if our national debt would still be 70%.
Has Santos been hit with multiple ethics violations by Congress, like many of our parliamentarians (including the PM and ministers)? He’s no role model for sure, but can we really puff our chest here?
– Maybe health care waiting times are awful and the system is stressed. But it’s still free.
FREE? Perhaps for the 40% of the population that pays no net taxes, but to the rest of us, it is a significant portion of the earnings taken from each and every paycheque.
Besides, has this pathetic blog not proclaimed consistently that we get what we pay for? If our healthcare is free, is it any surprise it stinks and severely under-performs the G7 and beyond?
We DO have a lot to be thankful for, no argument there. Things should get better in 2023 so fingers crossed!
Don’t agree with all your calls here Garth but throughly enjoyed the tenacity with which you made them. Canadian non-financial stocks are dirt cheap, for RE I’d still go REIT. Ukraine will not repopulate in our lifetime.
And with all that sunny news about Canada…
22% of Canadians say they’re ‘completely out of money’ as inflation bites: poll
https://globalnews.ca/news/9432953/inflation-interest-rate-ipsos-poll-out-of-money/
It’s always been and always will be “buy Canada”.
The only people who think/thought otherwise are the gullible, the cynical, the envious, the greedy, and the misinformed.
IDK
#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.23 at 8:00 pm
@#111 Vlad
“As to rebuilding Ukraine, I believe this will not happen.
First, there will be shortage of hands.”
+++
A shortage of hands?
Russia’s population has been in decline for almost a decade.
Alcoholism, obesity, aging demographics, etc.
Now?
We have Putin shovelling hundreds of thousands of young Russian men into the meat grinder of war….
I’d venture to say….. Russia’s population will continue to decline for decades to come.
—————————
But they sure have good hockey players.
The Canucks have a young Russian kid, who could be a super star.
And how about Ovechkin?
He could break Gretzky’s scoring record.
But the NHL may censor him, if he gets closer.
#135 crowdedelevatorfartz
Check your stats, bud. Russian population has been growing, albeit slowly, mostly due to immigration. Please no propaganda
I am more worried that those tanks will be manned by nato soldiers as ukes do not know how to operate them, and lack of time to train. This will result in direct conflict between Russia and nato. Right, no end maybe the end
The War in Ukraine has had an immense impact. Ukraine is destroyed. Russia won’t recover from its Rogue State. NATO found its glue. Finland and Sweden joined NATO. Brings the Alliance right to the Russian Border. The Germans are going to send Leopard Tanks. Allow Poland to send their dozen or so Leopards. Just as long as the US sends M1 Abrams. It’s what the Ukes wanted. Will it make the War unwinnable for Russia? Shorten it? This will hasten Investors’ thinking about the massive “Marshall Plan” that will rebuild Ukraine. Another huge demand component for materials. Buy Canada.
Boris Johnson What the hell is the West waiting for? In an extraordinarily powerful – and emotional – rallying cry, BORIS JOHNSON implores Britain’s allies to give Ukraine all the weapons it needs to win NOW
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11667727/BORIS-JOHNSON-sooner-help-Ukraine-victory-sooner-suffering-over.html
Re: #123 wallflower on 01.25.23 at 7:17 pm
Where is Felix?
Felix did some mischief in in the backyard the morning with his partner in crime, Zorro, and then slept throughout the day. Now he is up and came to check out if there are any treats to be had.
He was more tired than usual today, as yesterday he slipped out through the door in the evening and had to be recovered ~ 1 am from the frozen streets of Toronto. :-D
“I would. When things change, smart people change. – Garth”
The problem is these smart people, such as bank leaders and even yourself Garth, use the words “are” and “will” too liberally, confidently, and date I say arrogantly. You project an aura of confidence and people less educated take it as gospel. And then when things turn out differently, you claim circumstances changed and therefore your view does as well. That’s all fine and dandy, but how about instead of stating absolutes, you temper these statements with “may”, “might”, and “could” instead of “will”? I think a lot of folks would take you more seriously because a lot of them keep hearing “will” and lose faith in educated opinions because they are often wrong. Let’s start setting the expectation of the opinion’s potential longevity – what say you?
Great post. Just wish I had more TSFA room. There should be an option to convert unused RRSP room to TSFA instead. Someone please submit a proposal to Cabinet. Thanks :)
APOCOLYPSE NEVER
Investors and wealthy people everywhere, we regret to announce that the expected financial apocalypse has once again been delayed indefinitely. We apologise for this terrible convenience.
#115 Steven on 01.25.23 at 6:59 pm
A healthcare system that works great for those with life threatening illnesses but not for anyone else is nothing to brag about.
So with the average household after tax income at say 90k per year, how again are families supposed to afford housing (buying or renting)? 7,500/month less 1,000(?) to invest less 1,500(?) on food less 1,000$(?) on vehicle loan(s)/gas/insurance(?) less 1,000(?) on bills/maintenance etc. less 500(?) on RESPs less etc etc. So that leaves 2,500 for housing, entertainment, kid’s activities, emergencies, etc. Totally hypothetical, numbers probably way off, but maybe not so much… so how again are middle class Canadians getting by? Without loading up on more debt that is I guess…
@#144 Vlad
Birth Rate 9.8 per 1000 vs Death rate 14.6 per 1000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
Immigration?
Lets put it in perspective
Deaths in Russia every 13 seconds
Births in Russia every 22 seconds.
A net loss of one person every 30 seconds.
One net immigrant…every 4 minutes.
That was easy.
As for your suggestion that “Nato troops will drive yhe new tanks”
The Brits and the Poles have been training thousands of Ukrainian troops for months on Nato equipment and tactics.
The next stage of the Russian War will be typical.
Massed troops trying to overwhelm the defenders.
Ukrainian troops will be vastly outnumbered but…they are fighting for their county’s survival against troops fighting for corrupt leaders.
A meatgrinder of technology against WWII tactics.
Cities destroyed. Populations evacuated. Endless draining of resources for the control of rubble……
Many soldiers will die but the “kill ratio” will favor tech over troops.
Many many many Russian soldiers will die for Putin’s “glory”.
And 10 years from now when the war is stalemated and Putin is long dead…… even if Russia “wins”.
Russia will have a neighboring country with millions of people that will never forget or forgive for 1000 years.
to #135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.23 at 8:00 pm
Russia’s population has been in decline for almost a decade.
Alcoholism….
***********
Not true !!!! Popular myth from Hollywood.
Find Russia rank – you will be surprised !
Alcohol Consumption by Country 2023
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/alcohol-consumption-by-country
#92 Cto on 01.25.23 at 5:28 pm
Wow! Just wow! Thats it?
So 1.5 mil dollar houses are here to stay,……….
I’m kinda wondering at this point…who’s the graeterfool????
To put it bluntly: It was a practical devaluation of the currency in which it lost over 80 % of it’s value in around 20 years. And this just kept accelerating.
You are basically being paid with trash that is rapidly losing value and whose price has nothing do with markets but with central bank ‘policies’.
With official cumulative ‘inflation/CPI’ of 40-50 %, real of 400 % +.
If your net income has not increased at least 4-5 times during that time, you are screwed.
Or if you have not inflation protected your asset.
So the greater fool are all who believe even for a second that government, oligopolies, central bankers have their interest at heart. They don’t.
Trust them at your own risk.
There is a pretty large group of losers:
savers – savings being depleted by inflation with rates artificially suppressed
renters – rents skyrocketing with no indication of decline
retirees – with income ‘indexed with inflation’.
house poor whose whole income goes into the mortgage so they can not have kids
all who eat, drive and use services
the young who have no outlook for even partial success in life as their parents did – buy a house, raise kids, retire.
This one is really big and no amount of lies and fake plans about future immigration increase will even partially address this brewing storm and ticking time bomb that will explode at some point.
And then ‘authorities’ will complain about laid back ‘lazy’ working culture.
Let’s see for how long will the working poor take it in the chin in this country with abundance of resources and energy.
The clear winners are all the oligopolies, bankers central or private, maybe some investors but in very limited number.
House owners/houses bought before 2010 and majority of stock market investors barely kept their assets with inflation which considering the impoverishment of the rest is a huge win.
@#127 Steve-O
“I would not be surprised if Canada is still on a Russian target list when it come to nuclear combat. Remember that. The price you pay for offending your neighbor may be more severe than you think.”
++++
Please.
The only thing Canada could threaten Russia with is a Division of Ottawa bureaucrats to train their Russian counterparts in WOKE policies and anti bullying power point presentations.
Eat the country from the inside out…as it were.
#114 cuke and tomato
Life’s a bowl of cherries you crazy nut
Arrogance
The problem is these smart people, such as bank leaders and even yourself Garth, use the words “are” and “will” too liberally, confidently, and date I say arrogantly. You project an aura of confidence and people less educated take it as gospel.
***************************
Some people have earned a certain level of arrogance… Though it can be bad karma I’m sure.
Boom! Great message, Garth, and a solid reality check for those who believe the grass is always greener. Many thanks.
Just watched a Presser with the PM Trudeau after a Liberal “retreat” in Hamilton.
His staffers behind him looked grim.
Even Chrystia looked out of sorts.
Perhaps it was the protesters screaming at them as they entered the conference hall.
But Trudeau kept his pabulum platitudes about “peaceful demonstrations and police presence”….
The cost of food, gas, rent and loans is kicking voters in the stomach….
Let Trudeau wear this for a few months more.
It looks good on him.
Next up in February!
A PM and Premiers conference on….Heath Care…..
“And look at the Covid numbers – 50,300 people perished here. Over 1.1 million died in the States. Do the math and see that our result was vastly better. The truckers were wrong.”
So, based simply on population, math says USA should have about 8.67 times as many deaths, so 50.3k x 8.67 = 436k, or about 40% the USA’s roughly.
Canada population density: 4 per Km2
USA population density: 36 per Km2
So about 9x the population density in the USA.
Hmm maybe that’s why a disease that spreads by close contact affected them more? Not because Canadians are special and better even though they think they are all the time?
Nice try, but we are more than 80% urban. – Garth
No way this is the bottom. IMO there will be a surge lower in March as the folks who took out private loans at the tippy-top of the market round the 12 month mark. How can they possibly qualify to borrow under todays rates?
Also, if you are interested in Ron Butler’s opinion on the direction of prices, please watch this interview posted today: https://youtu.be/d0N_LwbAioE. So many factors working against current prices. Down she goes.
Felix, what an awesome name.
You rock!
I was talking to a member of the IOC about bC getting the 2030 Winter Olympics and he said that the IOC is waiting for the war to be over so that infrastructure investment can begin in the Ukraine and that would be used to facilitate the 2030 Winter olympics. Interesting!!!
“The CB says it will be 3% by summer, and a nothingburger by a year from now’ . They’ve been known to be reliable forecasters of inflation rates in the past lol. I wonder if they’ll take any bets on that 3% in 6 months forecast. I ll take the other side. Check back in end of July .
A friend of ours is in Sweden.
He says public free health insurance covers gym memberships.
No wonder they are so healthy.
Cuts down on expensive emergency visits.
Saves care money in the long run.
“Our official inflation rate was 8.1% and is now nearing 6%. The CB says it will be 3% by summer, and a nothingburger by a year from now. Compare that to Europe.”
Canadas true inflation numbers have been massively understated for decades and it would be impossible to compare different countries. Europe is likely just being a little more honest than we are right at this current moment
“The upshot is that in 2018, while the official CPI was at two per cent, the 1990 version of the CPI showed us last year at six per cent while the 1980 version of CPI showed us at 10 per cent.
That means in order to maintain your standard of living in 2019 from what you are making in 2018, you need a 10 per cent wage increase, not a two per cent wage increase.
By “modifying” the manner in which the CPI was calculated, it was underreported by about four per cent a year from 1980 to 1990 and by about eight per cent per year thereafter.”
https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/island-voices-price-index-the-lie-thats-killing-the-middle-class-4669616
#144 I don’t know on 01.25.23 at 8:58 pm
It’s always been and always will be “buy Canada”.
The only people who think/thought otherwise are the gullible, the cynical, the envious, the greedy, and the misinformed.
IDK
********
So…basically you.
so many people hurt by Tiff, it’s sad.
Did Tiff make a mistake? yes.
Does that mean he’s picking on you or did on purpose? probably not.
people make choices; don’t blame others for yours.
DELETED (Anti-immigrant, abusive)
What a morose bunch of victims come to this blog. I need to attract happier people. Open to suggestions. – Garth
Get rid of “Faron”, raise the vibrations here.
165 Westsider on 01.25.23 at 10:33 pm
I was talking to a member of the IOC about bC getting the 2030 Winter Olympics and he said that the IOC is waiting for the war to be over so that infrastructure investment can begin in the Ukraine and that would be used to facilitate the 2030 Winter olympics. Interesting!!!
————————-
Who was that IOC guy?
I follow winter sport.
And the lack of real snow may mean that the Alpine and outdoor Nordic events maybe seriously impaired by then.
This climate thingy is for real.
No country in their right mind would invest in new Olympic infrastructure.
Oh, wait.
The Saudis might do it.
@#167 Ponzie’s Prepaid Pickleball
“A friend of ours is in Sweden.
He says public free health insurance covers gym memberships.”
++++
Sooo
Retiring back to Austria is out…..
You’re moving to Sweden?
How do you pronounce Rutabaga in Swedish?
some macro numbers posted might make Canada look ok compared to others, but on a micro basis most people are not doing that well.
Immigration increases GDP, more people more bread is sold, and its sold by the oligopoly that exists in almost every industry in Canada. So taxes etc look good, some low end jobs that the immigrants take that the locals dont want for various reasons.
So who wins and who looses, well Canada is about pushing down the new people so the old stock Canadians can do little. I am an old stock Canadian now, and I see it, lie to the immigrants, and hope that 80% stay, they will figure out the scam but if they are kept in the dark for say 20 years they will forget where they came from and make Canada there home, warts and all.
Assuming you came from a poor country, or war torn etc, Canada will be more than fine for you, yes you have to work but its generally clean and safe, and services are there if you fall through the cracks. so all in all, not bad. not America for opportunity but most of the people coming are not some big businessman, just regular folk who want to better there family and there selves or basically, anywhere that isnt the bad place they came from,
That’s pretty well a hat trick for Germany.
You know why war cycles come around approximately every 80 years?
Its because the people who have seen and experienced war are either dead or no longer regarded as being credible.
And now people who don’t have a clue are in charge.
Buckle up it’s official, WW111
Question for anyone…I golf with 4 guys. We are Canadian and retired. We all own our homes, some of us own recreational property. We all own our cars, some of us more than one. We have no debt whatsoever, not even credit card balances. Are we included or excluded when they calculate those average debt numbers?
#147 45north on 01.25.23 at 9:17 pm
The War in Ukraine has had an immense impact. Ukraine is destroyed. Russia won’t recover from its Rogue State. NATO found its glue. Finland and Sweden joined NATO. Brings the Alliance right to the Russian Border. The Germans are going to send Leopard Tanks. Allow Poland to send their dozen or so Leopards. Just as long as the US sends M1 Abrams. It’s what the Ukes wanted. Will it make the War unwinnable for Russia? Shorten it? This will hasten Investors’ thinking about the massive “Marshall Plan” that will rebuild Ukraine. Another huge demand component for materials. Buy Canada.
Boris Johnson What the hell is the West waiting for? In an extraordinarily powerful – and emotional – rallying cry, BORIS JOHNSON implores Britain’s allies to give Ukraine all the weapons it needs to win NOW
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11667727/BORIS-JOHNSON-sooner-help-Ukraine-victory-sooner-suffering-over.html
******
Boris should lead by example and sign up to fight on the front lines. I mean what’s he waiting for?
Just a small correction. The US used to be about 10 times the population of Canada but that’s no longer true. With the US at about 334 million and Canada at 38 million it’s closer to 8.5.
GW on 01.25.23 at 11:25 pm
What a morose bunch of victims come to this blog. I need to attract happier people. Open to suggestions. – Garth
Get rid of “Faron”, raise the vibrations here.
================
Another friendly suggestion is to get more bipeds on the front page.
Like the ol’ days.
And by using the term “bi” you might get some social credits so the nutcases won’t be so inflamed and tear down to steal your flag.
Here’s an example from December:
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/12/21/survival/
boomer fun:
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/12/17/running-on-empty/
RIP, hard times:
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/12/16/hard-times/
A special shout-out to the old friends too, jess, nonplused, Cici and JK (with wings).
Cheers, Russ
Interesting reading comments. Proves my point that people like to blame everyone for their mistakes – other than themselves. “boo hoo, i borrowed more than i could afford – i blame the government for letting me”.
That said, Im still interested what happens to Canadian rates/currency if the Americans keep raising theirs. Surely that’d tank our dollar unless we follow suit?
#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.23 at 8:36 pm
@#142 Faron.
I never could understand the appeal of Twitter.
Or why Musk wanted to buy it
—
Buying twitter and appeasing right wing nutters is a sure ticket to political immunity that will shelter him from any kind of punishment for his frauds. Trump has shown that 30% approval and ability to borrow endless cash makes one untouchable. Simpol.
You have a good head on your shoulders, Crowdie, I’m baffled that you syckle up to Elon so.
Thank you, Garth. This made me smile. Long live Canada.
#155 VladTor on 01.25.23 at 9:44 pm
to #135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.25.23 at 8:00 pm
Russia’s population has been in decline for almost a decade.
Alcoholism….
***********
Not true !!!! Popular myth from Hollywood
—
That’s a nope (same kunda junky website).
Rates of alcoholism are waaaaaay higher in Russia than most anywhere. Easy to hate your life when your leader is a POS and the media fiercely gaslights you 24/7. And, no, Canadian/US media is not even in the same league.
#59 Emma Zaun – GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007
Garth, you are paying Emma too much.
I don’t think that Tiff has any credibility at all, he is just showing the political control over his role. T2 needs some good economic news. House prices cannot stabilise as no-one can afford to buy one. When a poster pointed out that even the Prime Minister after tax could not buy an average house on his work salary, well that said it all really.
The British Footsie index (London Stock Market) finished 2022 up 1.2%! Not bad for these troubled times.
Well played Garth. Someone tried this (laughable) population density/Covid comparison once on me too. We seriously need to start teaching students critical thinking….we could have avoided a lot of the covid stupidity…..
“And look at the Covid numbers – 50,300 people perished here. Over 1.1 million died in the States. Do the math and see that our result was vastly better. The truckers were wrong.”
So, based simply on population, math says USA should have about 8.67 times as many deaths, so 50.3k x 8.67 = 436k, or about 40% the USA’s roughly.
Canada population density: 4 per Km2
USA population density: 36 per Km2
So about 9x the population density in the USA.
Hmm maybe that’s why a disease that spreads by close contact affected them more? Not because Canadians are special and better even though they think they are all the time?
Nice try, but we are more than 80% urban. – Garth
What a morose bunch of victims come to this blog. I need to attract happier people. Open to suggestions. – Garth
Do what our illustrious Photo-op Minister does (buys votes). Free ponies, houses, and B&D portfolios for all!!
Real estate is like a cappucino , once you strip off the foam , the rest is real brew. More froth coming off you bet, as over priced pandemic junk needs to settle further, but buyers are locked and loaded for a double shot espresso, no foam.
The Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) is cutting member dues for 2023.
The provincial association notified its 90,000-plus members via email that the annual fee has decreased from $110 to $75. OREA credits the one-time reduction to strong financial management by the board.
The association notes that dues will revert back to $110 in 2024.
===================================
LIARS! Cover up! Agents are quitting in droves, can’t cover their dues. OREA is esentially confirming 2024 back to $110 due to mismanagement.
We’ll see this March if the speculators in the Canadian dollar force the Bank of Canada to hike again. The dollar may and likely will get trounced right before the March meeting.
Re #157
Actually Canada has done plenty to incriminate itself in the eyes of the Russians. Military logistical support for a start. Membership in NATO. An alliance which is for all practical purposes at war with Russia. Our PC policies on the home front are sufficient to offend the hell out of any real straight , white and christian person and also our support for the Ukrainians and their globalist, masonic and jewish handlers. The same kind of powers that brought communism to Russia in 1917 are supporting the Ukraine this time around. I reckon they want Russia back under their control just like in the soviet era. They just can’t bear the possibility of any person or nation doing its own thing especially if it is outside of their control in any way.
Also you must remember that there are still plenty of people in the world who think that a friend of my enemy is my enemy and if you won’t help catch a criminal then you are a criminal and liable to be hung on the spot. Then again if you want Canada to be a glass parking lot by all means keep offending the Russians. The government seems to think it is a great idea or they think they are going to get away with it forever.
@#192 Steve Sudetenland
“Actually Canada has done plenty to incriminate itself in the eyes of the Russians. Military logistical support for a start. Membership in NATO. An alliance which is for all practical purposes at war with Russia…”
+++++
So we give Russia what it wants and let it crush a fledgling democracy.
“Peace in our time” and all that Tommy rot eh wot?
Appeasement policies for paranoid dictators bent on military domination….dont work.
Neville Chamberlain proved that.
As for the other drivel you spewed out.
Careful.
Your tinfoil hat is slipping
Re: #176 DOWn on 01.26.23 at 12:06 am
Buckle up it’s official, WW111 ++++
Dear Buckle Up,
Thanks for that ‘official bit of news’. Please elaborate on the following:
Is it going to be a conventionally fought war? The type fought with traditional tanks, guns and bullets, mortar stuff, and lots and lots of peeps in trenches and on front lines? We’ve heard nonstop about the tanks but which countries are going to send their young men and women to those front lines? Will they be conscripted, because I’m having a hard time visualizing moisters coming out of their parent’s basements, putting down the meaningful task of scrolling garbage on their iPhones, and actually stepping up to defend…ummm, remind me of what and who again please. Oh yeah – freedom. But not the type in Ottawa last January, for sure…
The last major ‘dustup’ had something to do with Britain being the ‘mother country’, and most of the participants from the ‘colonies’ had some sentimental attachment to the old gal. Not sure our current demographics ( consult Canadian Census data if in doubt ), would support that same analysis here or elsewhere, so please elaborate on where the ‘heroic armed forces’ would be coming from. Lots will be required. Do you have any son’s or daughters of draft age, by the way?
Also, most of the recent history misadventures involved countries that had pretty limited military resources and the population was outfitted in light clothing and sandals, with the ‘action’ primarily ‘shock and awe’ bombing and other demolition from airborne sources.
Easy prey, but this current adversary seems a little more sophisticated. By the way, isn’t Canada right in between that adversary and the other main player if one examines geography from a ‘over the polar ice cap scenario’? I seem to recall some old yarn about German U-boats prowling the coasts of North America in the second war to end all wars…
Everything under the sun has been tried from an ‘economic war/sanctions’ point of view, and far as I can see doesn’t seem to be working. In fact bridges are being burned from the other side and new economic alliances formed. That seems to leave only nuclear war.
Is that what you had in mind? Wondering if you could let me know, so I can be sure to secure a passage to some warm little island far away from the conflict.
Maybe the Caribbean. Cuba has a certain charm, and I think they long ago learned the lesson that missiles on your neighbour’s doorstep could be interpreted as unfriendly and a bit of a faux pas. Looking forward to your earliest response. P.S. Has anyone considered the peace negotiation alternatives?
O.K. Garth, feel free to permanently ban me. Should lower the numbers of ‘morose people’ who frequent the blog.
What a morose bunch of victims come to this blog. I need to attract happier people. Open to suggestions. – Garth
_________
Have a word with the person who determines what gets posted and what doesn’t. Oh, wait…
DELETED
DELETED (Go away Phil. – Garth)
#172 GW on 01.25.23 at 11:25 pm
Get rid of “Faron”, raise the vibrations here.
***
This would help a lot, but censorship ain’t right. I do agree he shits the place up, though.
Anyone notice TSLA +48% this month? Heh.
Sure, I’m personally gaining tons, but the best part about this is that all other Tesla holders are benefitting similarly. We can all win together.
This realtor wants folks to forget about funding an RESP for their kids, and instead buy them real estate.
https://twitter.com/ManyBeenRinsed/status/1618618256935522306
#193 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.26.23 at 8:22 am
@#192 Steve Sudetenland
“Actually Canada has done plenty to incriminate itself in the eyes of the Russians. Military logistical support for a start. Membership in NATO. An alliance which is for all practical purposes at war with Russia…”
+++++
So we give Russia what it wants and let it crush a fledgling democracy.
——————————————————
Fledgling democracy eh? People smarter than you are saying otherwise…
“Preparing for Global Challenges: In Conversation with Bill Gates”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHdYYCQQOvU
The imperial Russian War against Ukraine started in 2014. What is history good for? It’s good for reflection upon the other stories about the past that you are being told.
I highly recommend a You Tube series of lectures by Timothy Snyder, Levin Professor of History at Yale. The 23 lectures are entitled “The Making of Modern Ukraine”.
” HUG A MOOSE “…Cracked me up.
# 194
Resend
The tanks that are being supplied via NATO have radioactive shells and are technically firing dirty bombs which opens a whole new chapter.
I unfortunately think that people have become so desensitized via movies, video games, TV, News that they can’t comprehend the true finality and tragedy of death and the wake of destruction it leaves behind.
How about NATO letting the people of the countries that they have included in this war have a Vote?
On paper ballots so there will be no finger pointing.
I’m very much against this war.
sounds that seem familiar
https://pressprogress.ca/preston-manning-danielle-smith-alberta-pandemic-response-review/
Smith wants to launch a probe into Alberta’s COVID-19 response
Manning, the former head of the right-wing Manning Centre, will receive $250,000 to chair a committee reviewing the province’s response, Smith announced Tuesday.
https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/breakenridge-smith-should-spare-alberta-the-political-theatre-and-expense-of-the-manning-panel
Fuellmich….But for many of those sucked into conspiracy theories around COVID-19, he has become one of the most influential figures in the world.
His followers believe these trials will carry global historical significance, so much so that they’ve become known as “Nuremberg 2.0” in reference to the trials of Nazi leaders that took place after World War 2. Jan Rathje, a political scientist and researcher at German anti-extremism think tank Cemas, said the notion of a “second Nuremberg” – framed as mass trials of treacherous “elites” – was already familiar to many in the far-right before becoming synonymous with Fuellmich’s legal battle.
Meanwhile, on social media, Fuellmich’s followers refer to him as a hero, saviour or even, occasionally, “sent by God”. Memes are created showing him photoshopped into courtrooms with world leaders in the dock.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/akvww8/reiner-fuellmich-nuremberg-2-why-covid-conspiracy-theorists-see-this-lawyer-as-their-saviour
https://cemas.io/en/
Right-wing extremist militant accelerationists organise and form themselves primarily in loose digital networks. As the platform did not regularly remove their content, the scene’s communication shifted to the online platform Telegram in the second half of the 2010s. The network itself as well as outside observers refer to this cluster as Terrorgram. Far-right militant accelerationism has spread not only on Telegram, but also on far-right “chan” imageboards, on which the March 2019 Christchurch, New Zealand shooter posted his own ideas about accelerationism.
In Germany, since 2018, there have been at least five groups and several individuals prepared to carry out attacks, attributable to militant accelerationism. The right-wing extremist terrorist attack in Halle, which left two dead and two injured in 2019 is also attributable to right-wing extremist militant accelerationism. Investigations into the “planning of a serious act of violence endangering the state” are currently underway against at least three defendants. Another person has already been sentenced to two years of imprisonment.
https://globalnews.ca/news/9437988/germany-arrest-russian-spying/
The Real Estate Economy
Does trading houses with each other create added real wealth for Canadians as a population? Not so much.
But does building houses and condos and apartments create real wealth? Absolutely! More people houses. Sticks and glue turned into shelter.
All hail the residential construction industry! (And residential land developers!)
#96 Hmmm
truth.
they are somewhat entertaining though.
——————————————————————————————————
YESSSSS!!!
Finally, someone who GETS it!
It’s all about the entertainment.
This comments section is FUN, entertaining, and HILARIOUS!
An excellent cast of characters.
I really miss Smoking Man.
Payments up 250%?
Folks with home equity loans, says mortgage broker Ron Butler, “will be in despair because their minimum payments have ratcheted to a point nearly 250% higher than what they were 10 months ago.
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That would be an interest-only equity line going from 2% to 6.5%.
How many people had interest-only home equity loans? Was that actually common? Might have made sense for money used for investment purposes. If so gotta sell the ETFs bought with that and pay the loan?
Correcting my math error
A 250% minimum payment increase would be interest rate going from 2% to 7% not the 6.5% I said above.
210 Shawn on 01.26.23 at 1:59 pm
Correcting my math error
A 250% minimum payment increase would be interest rate going from 2% to 7% not the 6.5% I said above.
—————-
Good on you to make the correction.
But you give the blog dogs too much credit for checking or having the math skills.
“Everybody has debt.”
Not me. I can’t afford the luxury of being in debt.
Re the tanks, they won’t really do anything except escalate the war because of their radioactive payloads.
Putin and his military advisors are saying that they are not going to lose a conventional war, and there’s no reason they will.
They have made it clear that they have nukes that can not be stopped, the hypersonic and Poseidon under sea weapons as example.
Do people in the west think that they won’t be impacted by nuclear events?
This is not a reality TV show or Video game.
Jeez, what a flip flop blog. A week ago the sky was falling but Tiff’s words are now golden. Tell that to my starving car salesman with 3 kids whose mortgage went from $1800 to $4000, or my coworker whose popped $2000.
This will continue to drip drip for another year or more. Mortgage rules are tightening and average incomes don’t get $600K mortgages with a snap of a finger anymore. Pent up demand is a salesman’s sham line.
Not to mention federal workers are about to take a strike vote for their measely 1.75% wage offer. This is far from over.