And then there were eight.
On Wednesday the central bank fluffs the cost of money for the eighth time in ten months. Last March, when houses were rising in value more than 20% a year and mortgages were 1.7%, the Bank of Canada’s benchmark was a quarter of one per cent. Almost nothing. This week it hits 4.5%. Yes, a 1,700% increase. The kids never imagined this could happen.
As you know, and as a certain blog has pointed out with nauseating repetition, rates and houses move in the opposite direction. Now we have a crisis because, while real estate is 20% cheaper, the cost of carrying a place has exploded higher.
But are things about to get worse? Like, a lot worse?
The meme on the street is all about pivot. Descend into the Reddit housing swamp and you’ll hear it. “Rates will be slashed later this year,” they cry. The echo of last year’s, “Rates can never rise because everybody’s in debt,” is unmistakable.
Lost here is a simple fact. Houses were unaffordable when mortgages were 2%. Now they’re still unaffordable after becoming a fifth cheaper, because loans are 5%. If CBs start reversing (the pivot), sales and prices will bubble higher fast. Yet it’s unlikely we’ll ever get home loans back down to less than 3%. The end result: real estate becomes more rarified. Covid valuations will return. Borrowing will cost more. Meanwhile OSFI will have tightened the rules. Lose, lose.
Oh, kiddos, be careful what you wish for.
But wait. Mr. Market seems to be equally smitten. Too many investors, traders and analysts are expecting that quantitative tightening will once again become QE, especially if this debt crisis thing spirals. Recall the chart published here two days ago, recounting OIS expectations. The central bank rate will have dropped by almost half within 24 months, it indicated.
And check this out – the disparity between what the US Federal Reserve has clearly said it would do, and what the market thinks it will actually do. Somebody’s zooming us.
Investors have unrealistic expectations for rates
Why would the Fed pivot?
Two reasons. First a deep, painful, layoff-riddled recession. The tech guys are slaughtered. Elon catches the last rocket to Mars. Unemployment spikes and the American economy shrinks, just as the 2024 Presidential cycle kicks off in earnest. In this scenario, the Fed would add stimulus by reducing the cost of borrowing.
Or, politics really unravel. The Republicans absolutely refuse to increase the debt ceiling unless the White House agrees to slash spending. Biden says go suck a lemon. Crisis ensues. The market reacts badly. US credit is threatened. Until a resolution is found (like the Treasury issuing a $1 trillion coin, and handing it over), the Fed seeks to mitigate damage. The benchmark rates goes down.
Are either of those scenarios likely? Hmmm, maybe. But remote.
The labour market in Canada and the US is robust. Analysts are forecasting positive economic growth in the next few quarters, not a contraction. Tech layoffs are good because they will reduce upward wage pressures and help corral inflation – which has been steadily, slowing fading. Meanwhile debt ceiling crises have been with us in the past. They were scary. The headlines were huge. The rhetoric vicious. But they always got solved. Why would American politicians destroy the economy and idle millions of people? Voters would seek revenge. It’s a losing strategy.
In short, why would monetary authorities give up so fast? Rates have been crazy low since the GFC of 2008-9, and central bankers have wanted to get them back to normal levels since. Will they turn tail now, just as inflation is starting to decline and excesses in real estate and other assets are moderating?
Nah, not happening. At least not as quickly as stock cowboys and Redditers think.
So the BoC hikes Wednesday. The chartered bank prime moves higher on Thursday. VRMs reflect this immediately. Reverse mortgage rates touch 10%. And we sit there for a while. Likely the rest of 2023.
A pivot is out there. Somewhere. But before that, mortgages, loans and GIC rates go up. Houses go down. Govern yourself accordingly.
About the picture: “The best thing that happened to our family during covid,” writes Adam, in Calgary, “was Zoey! Photo is from Christmas 2021 just after we got her and she’s been melting hearts ever since. Long-time reader and have learned a lot. Also, proud to say that shortly after I found your blog I promised myself to never read the comments, and haven’t looked at them since. Thanks for educating (and entertaining!) the masses.”
145 comments ↓
25 basis point, final and done !! OH yeah baby! See I knew it, the boss at the central bank of Canada is retreating with his tail between his legs, he has no guts to follow through and see his plan to completion. I knew all along he would blink first. What can I say, rubbing my hands and licking my chops. People who has guts to take on big debts like me win!! :) Love it. By the way, raise middle finger at Tiff Macklem, bring it on, you don’t scare me a bit, a blog dog formerly known as HateTiff.
“Biden says: Go suck a lemon” to the Republicans.
Haha
Is he a limey?
Well, it’s good advise in any case, with the shortage of cold medicine.
@ Seamsy 31 – (from Yesterday)…
Why do active duty soldiers not pay income taxes but the rest of us do?
You must be joking, misinformed or else what kind of BS are you trying to spread?
______________________________________
Sorry, I used the term “active duty” should have used the term “deployed”, but not BS, it’s a FACT…
For members of the Canadian Armed Forces and police officers deployed on international operations. You are not required to pay income tax on money earned while on active duty,
https://turbotax.intuit.ca/tips/deductions-for-military-and-police-personnel-132#:~:text=For%20members%20of%20the%20Canadian,risk%20levels%20of%20your%20mission.
Thanks for the daily advice, Garth. As always, it’s much appreciated. Thank you .
“Nah, not happening. At least not as quickly as stock cowboys and Redditers think.”
You forgot Realtors too Garth. One I met recently stated “would you be distressed if house prices went up 20% in the next 6 months” and stated that her open houses now have “shoes lined up out the door recently”
Hopeful, maybe correct?, but I think housing price recovery is going to take several years.
By the time the dust settles, my bets are early to mid 1990s pricing across Canada or lower as the rate increases, crypto losses, stock losses, job losses, death rates and families all start moving in together, dropping demand, all start to magnify and fear sets into buyer’s minds.
A pivot would be the worse thing ever. Would prove that the CB is waffling and can’t make up its mind. Until 2% inflation comes back and holds, the rates should stay.
Will the Trillion dollar coin be made out of Hopium or Copium?
Asking for a friend.
The timing is a bit off for the new red congress to trigger a recession – they’d rather have some kind of slow-down in 2024, the presidential election year. The Fed, while apolitical, isn’t stupid, and they’ll keep their powder dry until then. Our BoC has to sit on its hands in the meantime.
Central bank rates will flutter around 5%, or just under, until core inflation sustains a couple of quarters near 3%. Not holding my breath.
#195 millmech on 01.24.23 at 1:13 pm
Good to see Tesla has crashed down below $100 as many experts here predicted, crypto too has cratered along with it, just as the soothsayers foretold!
Stay safe, this is the way.
—
Anyone who didn’t see the TSLA bounce coming was an idiot. But, a bounce doesn’t mean the company isn’t a dumpster fire. Fun part is that you can strip out the double negative and the sentence still reads correctly; i.e. a bounce means the company is a dumpster fire. I mean, Bed Bath and Beyond is on the cusp of bankruptcy (wherein share value goes to zero) and it has rallied more than 3x.
Anyone with half a clue knows that crypto rallies when exchanges are rolling over. Gemini bankrupt. Binance in the crapper. Banks that link exchanges to fiat getting hammered.
This stuff is all knowable and tradable and none of it reflects well on the underlying.
I’d far far far rather pay enough attention to know where things are over bought and over sold or what the patterns in fraud are and make money off of then than to just blindly hodl and spew nonsense about the quality of assets that are pure garbage when looked at impassively.
Just caught an interesting segment on talk radio. A caller who specializes in buying distressed properties says that realtors are passing on listings because the seller has no equity, so nothing for the realtor to grab for the sale fees. He’s getting lots of calls from people who skipped right past the usual sell-the-house off ramps while circling the drain and went right to the main event.
Makes me wonder if this could be why there’s so little inventory now. The owner’s can’t even get out, so the realtors can’t get the listing. If this is the case, then expect a deluge of biblical proportions in around six months when the bank starts foreclosures.
And that’s what 5% down mortgages did for the market. Hidden perils that cannot yet be seen.
#9 Faron on 01.24.23 at 2:17 pm
#195 millmech on 01.24.23 at 1:13 pm
To wit: this and this
And you have Elon on the stand saying that it’s his duty as CEO to lie while also lying on the stand. Claimed that he never sold a share of TSLA prior to the funding secured tweet of 2018
yet there are SEC filings showing he sold 2.78 million shares two years prior. This is the CEO of what once was a trillion dollar company perjuring himself. I don’t care what you think of Tesla and their technology, Elon is a garbage human relying on people of low ethos to perpetrate his frauds.
” Elon catches the last rocket to Mars.” – Love it Garth.
It reminds me why I come here. For unbiased financial reading, while being entertained. Your pen works better than your crystal ball, but that’s OK.
Too bad readers expect a clear reading from your quartz globe.
If you wring you hands in worry over an “investment”, its not an investment, it’s gambling.
poaching just in time ?
check out the proud partners
Doug Ford’s Government Met With Lobbyists Pitching ‘Uber’-Style App for Health Care Workers
Staffy claims its app can help hospitals find nurses ‘in minutes’by Mitchell Thompson, Ontario Reporter
January 24, 2023
https://pressprogress.ca/doug-fords-government-met-with-lobbyists-pitching-uber-style-app-for-health-care-workers/
In Surrey BC a listing yesterday for 1 million. Assessment is 1.46 million. What do you make of this? Is this a case of list low to attract multiple offers? Is that a thing again already?
Wouldn’t it also depend on inflation? Once inflation gets back to the 2-3% range, wouldn’t a lower rate be needed where it’s neutral i.e. not stimulating or slowing the economy? Not saying that will happen this year, but suspect it will happen eventually…
https://www.point2homes.com/CA/Home-For-Sale/BC/Surrey/Fleetwood/7864-163A-STREET/136363244.html
Sorry forgot to send the link to the 1 million dollar listing?
#3 truefacts on 01.24.23 at 1:57 pm
@ Seamsy 31 – (from Yesterday)…
Why do active duty soldiers not pay income taxes but the rest of us do?
==============
Because putting your life on the line to defend our way of life is worth way more than what we a a society (re)pay these people.
You clearly have not lived in a war zone to understand the stress and the PTSD that comes with it. We pay our armed forces a pitty ,so the tax exemption while deployed is the least we can do.
We need to always be prepared , paraphrasing a famous quote: In order to have peace you need to always be prepared for war.
The more disgusting it is the billionaires and multinationals exploiting every loophole to pay significant less taxes than the working class , loopholes they created throug connections and lobying.
No wonder the socialism is on the rise , with a good portion of the population living month to month and on credit. While history doesn’t necesarily repeat it definitly rhymes.
Yogism #33: “Ismisms provide and provoke Schismisms”.
killing jobs isn’t good, garth.
the number of jobs existent in any particular economy has nothing to do with the overall inflation rate.
additionally, central banks cannot control inflation by adjusting interest rates.
if you believe this, you either don’t understand history…or you have been tricked into thinking central banks have more power than they actually do.
Cdns are still spending, inflation will be sticky (e.g., shelter, energy) so I don’t see the CB pivoting in 2023.
More like hold and see what happens.
Only casualty so far has been CDN’s overay wealth loss of -8% in the first 3 quarters of 2022 and those are paper losses primarily in RE and market investments.
Credit card debt increased by only 3.3% over that period, + $24 billion, and mortgages slowed down as well, +4.4% to $2.08 Trillion from just under $2 Trillion.
Raise a bit, hold, wait and see.
————-
Personally I think there will be a lot of turmoil in 2023 and can’t say why – it’s just a gut feel, anyone’s guess. If so, raise and hold a good thing.
Long time reader, small business owner and was wondering if I could get your expert opinion on a crisis I’m having. I run an equipment rental business and rental price for an acre of industrial land in Vancouver is has now become almost impossible to manage for me anymore. Purchasing is impossible because it averages 5 million an acre. At this point I’m attempting to cut costs but I don’t think I’ll find enough to cover. Any advice would be appreciated. Should i whole sale everything now or would interest rates give me a glimmer of hope that industrial properties might fall in rent or cost in the future?
#196 Alois on 01.19.23 at 10:40 am
#135 H.G.Wells on 01.18.23 at 8:12 pm
THE UNEASY PEACE IN EUROPE THAT FOLLOWED THE FALL OF NAPOLEON
Two main causes prevented that period from being one of complete social and international peace, and prepared the way for the cycle of wars between 1854 and 1871.
============
Napoleon ill – advised campaigns had his war debts pile up.
He was forced into selling off French holdings in the USA…the ” Louisiana Purchase”.
The USA cobbled itself together slowly but surely ,by purchase and/or conquest .
——-
That’s funny Alois.
Funny, because in the same chapter we’re reminded that in early 1800 the European Great Power System under Monarchies was trying to re-establish itself in the United States. Spanish in Europe asked other European Monarchs to assist them in these efforts.
H.G. Wells writes…
“Thus arose the Monroe Doctrine, the doctrine that there must be no extension of extra-American government in America, which has kept the Great (European) Power System out of America for nearly a hundred years and permitted the new states of Spanish-America to work out their destinies along their own lines.”
This is funny on so many fronts, that we could discuss for a few exchanges. However, the funniest of all is that noble effort or “Spanish-America to work out their destinies along their own lines.” I’m guessing Monroe felt the Natives on the land should be allowed NO such luxury as to be left to work out their own destinies along their own lines.
And there lies the crux, doesn’t it?
A trillion dollar coin?
Hey, why bother setting up the mint for just one coin? Make 100 of them and run a massive surplus.
Sell potatoes and call them cell phones.
Absurdum profundum has been achieved.
Developers are in too deep of debt and now product isn’t selling and sold units aren’t closing
The belief is the banks will work with them and buy 1 year of time. Btw then….rates will drop
Let’s go into the future… early 2024.
BoC drops rate by .25%….5.75% mortgage
Real Estate market will go crazy because it’s never one and done
Bang on Garth, couldn’t agree more!
Well the bond market is certainly calling the Fed’s bluff, we will see.
There’s certainly precedent of the Fed and CB more generally being cagey and dishonest to put it nicely.
virtually 0% inflation since July, headline inflation will be 0-2% by August. We will see what decision the BOC makes then.
#18 ElGatoNeroYVR on 01.24.23 at 2:47 pm
Because putting your life on the line to defend our way of life is worth way more than what we a a society (re)pay these people.
The more disgusting it is the billionaires and multinationals exploiting every loophole to pay significant less taxes than the working class.
———
Agreed. All veterans should be given $5M reparations immediately and never pay any taxes whatsoever. It’s the least we can do. Your support is appreciated.
Lots of comments here yesterday about entry level positions occupied by people with degrees.
That wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing if it were temporary , they get precious work experience in the real world and companies get motivated individuals who want to learn so Win-Win.
The main issue is that there aren’t enough of the next level up jobs so these graduates could move on to better (paying) jobs.
The second issue is that a good portion are content to just hang around in those jobs rather than move on , admit they made an expensive mistake and go where the jobs are , currently trades , potentially STEM .
reality is that never in the history of the world arts focus has paid the bills for a large number of people , for a few yes , but not in the quantity of graduates we have today.
It all comes from the hiring practices , where computer driven algorithms and myopic recruiters list and focus on degrees rather than actual skills and experience.
QE Canadian version, the only way out or should I say up.
Up as in inflation.
“Elon catches the last rocket to Mars”…. lol, I can actually picture it.
The FED cannot wimp out now… they can pause for awhile and we see what happens to the jobs and inflation #’s first. But, my guess is, they will have to push the pedal to the metal again to slow it down more. We’ve had historical fiscal stimulus twice now in just over a decade. The correction to the mean is not going to happen in only 12-24 months.
# 8
Coins made out of dopeium.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
At some point they (USSA) will have to start buying back.
QE Canadian version coming.
The only way out or should I say up.
Up as in Inflation.
Print print print print.
It’s all they can do, same goes for USA & debt ceiling.
I have not personally seen large aggregate increases in home-ownership staples such as electricity/heat/hydro/insurance/property taxes/water these past 2 years. These aggregate costs barely rose over the last 2 years due to restrictions/subsidies from government. These costs are going to go up rapidly in the next few years to make up the difference. Some inflationary costs and items hit the consumer rapidly…others take more time. For me the above costs were approximately $11K annually and were increasing about 3% per year in the aggregate. Wait until these costs go up 7-10% for the next several years, while your income does not keep up.
One consequence of the child pogey not being taxed is that it does not affect eligibility for other means tested benefits, such as child care subsidies or the GST rebate.
These RE speculators think that we will get 2% mortgage rates again when the Bank of Canada interest rate will likely be 4.50% tomorrow.
So how will the banks get back their money if they are getting lower interest than what the overnight rate is?
You got it: The savers will pay for the real estate speculation by low savings rates and higher fees.
Religion warned us against this financial injustice.
Dear Tiff,
What you are witnessing is passive aggressive behaviour ( rates have been increased too many times, etc. ) from those invested in the idea that ‘it’s different this time’… Those who begin each day with a prayer that you will ‘pivot’. Those who really haven’t experienced tough times and just want to go back to an economy built on real estate speculation.
They weren’t listening when Jerome Powell used the word ‘pain to businesses and households’, or ‘keep at it until the job is done’. 6.3% is nowhere near 2% even though math is hard.
Amateur gamblers who don’t understand the wisdom of ‘sometimes in poker it’s smarter to lose with a winning hand so you can win later with a losing hand’. As an example recall the following quote on what took place during the Volcker years:
“What was amazing was the back-to-back recessions of 1981 and 1982, which he used to break the back of inflation. … He tightened policy, and brought the economy to its knees. He flipped the switch again, and the economy powered forward in a way it hasn’t since.”
Maybe throw a glass of cold water on Mr. Market’s face and raise fifty basis points tomorrow, Tiff. Amen.
Zoey is such a cutie:)
Fairly clear that what folks want is to 1) pay 1980 prices for homes in desirable hoods; 2) yet be able to sell those self same houses at February 2022 prices. Plus not have those pesky stress tests or need to renew their current mortgage at today’s rates. Fantasy Island, don’t you know.
#18 ElGatoNeroYVR on 01.24.23 at 2:47 pm
#3 truefacts on 01.24.23 at 1:57 pm
@ Seamsy 31 – (from Yesterday)…
Why do active duty soldiers not pay income taxes but the rest of us do?
==============
Because putting your life on the line to defend our way of life is worth way more than what we a a society (re)pay these people.
=============================
COMMENT:
With all due respect..it is this attitude that adds more fuel to the fire regarding classic comment:
“All Wars Are Bankers Wars”
Please advise ….at what point in history since
Confederation…in 1867…. Canada’s sovereignty was EVER threatened by a foreign adversary.
Ciao
UK: FCA Fines Banks for Anti-Money Laundering Shortcomings
https://www.fca.org.uk/news/press-releases/fca-penalises-al-rayan-bank-plc-anti-money-laundering-failures
https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/17240-uk-fca-fines-banks-for-anti-money-laundering-shortcomings
….. failed to ensure that their clients’ money was not connected to financial crime.
The watchdog said GT Bank has not disputed the findings and agreed to settle, making it eligible for a 30 percent discount on the fine,
“GT Bank’s conduct is particularly egregious as this is not the first time that the bank has faced enforcement action in relation to its AML controls,” the statement said.
Al Rayan is headquartered in Birmingham and operates through several branches
throughout the UK. Al Rayan’s parent bank, Al Rayan (UK) Limited is a subsidiary
of Masraf Al Rayan Q.S.C (“MAR”), a Qatar-based Islamic bank
https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/final-notices/al-rayan-bank-plc-2023.pdf
Flop Drops.
We’ve got a caller on line one named John, go ahead John what’s your question?
#15 John Sidhu on 01.24.23 at 2:37 pm
“In Surrey BC a listing yesterday for 1 million. Assessment is 1.46 million. What do you make of this? Is this a case of list low to attract multiple offers? Is that a thing again already?”
Well John, when I was dumb enough to go to St Louis, Missouri once for Spring Break when America was having a financial meltdown, one of the things that stuck with me from that trip is that Missouri is known as the “Show Me” State, that’s what I’ve pretty much been doing on this blog since I arrived on here.
Here’s your example, asking 1 million for a house assessed at 1.46
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2747819/7864-163A-STREET-Surrey-BC/
There’s a few recent comps like this one that are assessed at a similar number and sold around 1.2 million.
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2744048/15385-85A-AVENUE-Surrey-BC/
Then there’s a few houses that they are completing with that have been for sale for over a hundred days, like this one
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2730247/10007-158A-STREET-Surrey-BC/
Where’s the actual bottom in Surrey?
I think early 900’s for a place that needs a bit of work last time I checked, but I’ll show you a half decent one that sold for 955k the other day, and that one coincidentally also sold at 75% of assessment value, although it had a lower number overall.
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2737612/14478-85A-AVENUE-Surrey-BC/
So yeah, 1 million seems like it’s priced to get immediate action, but it doesn’t appear it will go anywhere near assessed, maybe around 1.2something
Then again if they offer to throw in the elephant style stools than a bidding war could erupt and it could go for 2.7 million.
After all, who doesn’t want to sit on the back of an elephant when you eat your dinner after a hard days work?
I always kick my Father In Law out of his favourite elephant chair when I go around for a visit…
M48BC
This whole fake economy is hooked on real estate/credit, no surprise many are complaining about the CB’s efforts to get out of it.
Inflation is a symptom not the disease which is a house of cards economy dependent on ever growing credit based spending.
This is a problem much more complicated than just taming inflation.
from yesterday
Flawed choices
“During the period when the largest government expenditures as a portion of GDP were made in the shortest time since the advent of the Second World War,” Morneau writes, “calculations and recommendations from the Ministry of Finance were basically disregarded in favour of winning a popularity contest.”
and we’re left with the debt
John Ivison: Are the Liberals living in cloud cuckoo land when they project that the federal budget will be balanced within five years? The answer, according to a new research paper co-authored by former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge, is: absolutely.
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/here-comes-another-grim-fiscal-warning-liberals-seem-ready-to-ignore
John Sidhu In Surrey BC a listing yesterday for 1 million. Assessment is 1.46 million. What do you make of this? Is this a case of list low to attract multiple offers? Is that a thing again already?
The assessment is for July 1, 2022. BC Assessment sent out the notice January 2023. It’s what you’d expect when prices are in free fall.
#18 ElGatoNeroYVR…
Why do active duty soldiers not pay income taxes but the rest of us do?
==============
Because putting your life on the line to defend our way of life is worth way more than what we a a society (re)pay these people.
_______________________________________
Sorry, I was following from yesterday. To be clear, I agree with the tax exemption, I was only using it to make a point yesterday – confusion totally my fault!
My point was related to child benefits, which is portrayed as “free” money, but I was (clumsily) trying to point out people make contributions aside from paying taxes. If everyone just buys a dog and lives alone, there is no next generation and society collapses…look at Japan as an example, or how China is following in its footsteps…In Canada, each generation is now 30% smaller than the previous one, and we mask that loss thru massive immigration (is that a sustainable model)???
Flop Drops.
Caveman Edition.
Someone just paid 750k for this, I don’t want no stinkin’ neighbours, but I don’t want to have to drive too far to get milk, I don’t like the crap they’re putting on our food nowadays, better have some fruit trees, type of place…
M48BC
////////////////////////////////////////////
“Looking for a private, peaceful and spacious property? Welcome to your own 2.366 Acres of paradise! Located less than 15 mins away from the heart of Agassiz this picturesque property is awaiting your new ideas to bring it to its full potential! Situated next to the Maria Slough the sights & opportunities are endless. The property currently has 5 buildings; a small green house, 2 small sheds, a 2 bay detached shop with a 1 bedroom 1 bathroom suite above & the main house. Buildings are rundown & need alot of work. The property also includes a small orchard consisting of 4 types of apple trees, 2 plum trees, a pear tree, a cherry tree, an Asian apple pear tree. If you’re looking for a private setting while still being able to get to town, this is the one for you! Contact your Realtor today!”
https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2734741/4747-SEABIRD-ISLAND-ROAD-Agassiz-BC/
If you are still buying houses in Canada, you are a special kind of stupid. Buy in USA. Rent in Canada.
https://www.realtor.com/…/85-Hill-St_Hornell_NY_14843…
Only the Crazy Nutters, and pumpers are talking pivot.
The economy is running hot, output gap is closed, unemployment is a at zero.
Core inflation is still climbing and talk of recession is receding.
More hikes is more likely than a pause or pivot.
The message to pumpers remains the same:
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK
https://theoldhouselife.com/2023/01/24/pretty-floors-circa-1920-in-south-carolina-149900/?fbclid=IwAR2T-ZsyA7VJAmC3547619T4eT-47oZjkzMEzqgW-zrv8420Lp_k-L_b_a0
#31 ElGatoNeroYVR on 01.24.23 at 3:28 pm
“The second issue is that a good portion are content to just hang around in those jobs rather than move on , admit they made an expensive mistake and go where the jobs are , currently trades , potentially STEM .”
There has not been any jobs in STEM since I graduated in 2009. The GFC took it all and it never came back, at least not to this continent.
More anecdotal info from the couch on the real estate sideline.
I have my eyes on a number of properties in The Hammer, lack of deposit has me incapable of pouncing on one but perhaps that is best in order to see which way the wind is blowing.
Yesterday I got a call from a real estate agent. Apparently when I thought I was going to move to another rental property in early 2020 I filled out a contact form on a listing in the High Park area of Toronto. Like many I filled out it resulted in “crickets”: no return call, I assumed sales were robust and who makes money off a renter?
But here she was asking me if I was still interested. Who would be 3 years later, but more importantly she made her pitch to me in case I needed a reliable agent in the marketplace.
R.E agents must be really working the rolodexes!!!
What’s a Rolodex? Asking for a Z. – Garth
They will hold till spring 2024 and then pivot about 6 to 8 months before the US elections to send the stock market up just in time for the Nov 2024 elections.
#42 Alois
Please advise ….at what point in history since
Confederation…in 1867…. Canada’s sovereignty was EVER threatened by a foreign adversary.
//////////////////////////////////////////////
My Dad would have told you that you are wrong.
(btw he volunteered at 17 and returned 5 years later with 6 medals and fewer friends)
Trillion dollar coin
Here’s a coin worth $1 trillion dollars!
Why is it worth that much? Because we say so.
What is its intrinsic value based on materials? $12,000
Why is worth $1 trillion? Because we say so
Why is Bitcoin worth $23,000? Because people will pay that much for it
Who will pay $1 trillion for that coin of yours?
Let’s ask ChatGPT:
“A $1 trillion dollar coin could be created by the government through a process known as “platinum coin seigniorage.” This process involves the government minting a platinum coin with a face value of $1 trillion and depositing it into its own account at the Federal Reserve. This would increase the government’s balance at the Federal Reserve by $1 trillion, effectively creating new money out of thin air. The idea behind this is that the government could use this new money to pay off its debt or fund other programs without having to raise taxes or cut spending. However, this idea is controversial and has not been implemented in practice. It’s important to note that this coin would have no intrinsic value, is not backed by any physical assets, it would be purely fiat money and its value would be based on the trust and confidence in the government that issued it.”
Oh, genius
the market is expecting a 25 basis point increase. I believe they should surprise everyone and increase 50. the bond yield has been going down and that would keep it up. It would also keep the spring housing market in check.
automated system fail
from 2015 -2019
four years later and a royal commission australia
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/dec/15/senior-dhs-official-very-angry-when-colleague-suggested-robodebt-needed-major-response-inquiry-told
“The Turnbull government’s robo-debt program automated failure
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/04/centrelink-robo-debt-program-accused-of-enforcing-illegal-debts
A “shameful chapter” in public administration has led to the federal court approving a settlement worth $1.8bn between the commonwealth and victims of the Coalition’s robodebt scheme.Raised using the unlawful method of “income averaging” tax office data to check welfare payments.
Justice Bernard Murphy in Friday’s judgment criticised the federal government’s “massive failure”, noting the court had heard “heart-wrenching” stories of pain and anguish from victims of the Centrelink debt recovery program.The judge said it should have been “obvious” to government ministers and senior public servants that the debt-raising method central to the scheme was flawed. He said the evidence showed it was unlawful.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/11/robodebt-court-approves-18bn-settlement-for-victims-of-governments-shameful-failure
An oil analyst is predicting that due to increased demand and also refinery maintenance etc gas in the lower mainland will hit $2.65 per litre in the summer. I sure hope he is WRONG.
@Ponzius
I don’t believe in the conspiracy…but the current state of most politicals is seemingly self serving these days. It is all about their celebrity status not sound policy for the whole Country.
Like the senior officials in Ukraine led by an actor. Let me guess he had no idea corruption was taking place.
Can’t make this stuff up.
#56 Ed on 01.24.23 at 4:55 pm
#42 Alois
Please advise ….at what point in history since
Confederation…in 1867…. Canada’s sovereignty was EVER threatened by a foreign adversary.
//////////////////////////////////////////////
My Dad would have told you that you are wrong.
(btw he volunteered at 17 and returned 5 years later with 6 medals and fewer friends)
===============================
Dear Ed…
If you wish to engage in an objective and constructive discussion….please focus on my original premise.
Again…when was Canada …as a stand- alone sovereign nation….EVER had its autonomy under attack since 1867 ???
What benefit has Canada ever had by allying itself with war mongers ?
PS:
Wars are classic distractions from domestic issues that have unfortunately spiralled out of control.
We are in the midst of repeating history…AGAIN.
Thanks…
Well, here we are in the milky way…soaring through space…on a rock – or a piece of fuzz. Nobody can tell. After ‘work’ we’re just waiting to die (at 80ish)…worrying how we have compared to others during the course of our lives. Blah, blah, blahing about how busy we were….unable to be ‘busy’ during the afterwork times b/c nobody cares about irrelevancy or teslas anymore – shame. Og still cares. Bathing helps. So do little blue pills. Trust me!
A lot to think about as I was at the gym today…as I was trying my best to focus on my workout (Full dis. not possible. I guess, one could say its a perk to full out, social internet addiction and the people who one chooses to compare themselves to). Not complaining.
Then I went smile hunting…I can still feel the success.
Og
@#1 TiffIsALoser on 01.24.23 at 1:54 pm
You are nothing but a pathetic, selfish, lazy snowflake millennial, or are you actually a sleepy gen-z (ZZZZ … sleeping). Anyway, a pathetic person is all I can think of. Have you any idea what this recent inflation is doing to people living on a fixed income? I have family members, friends and colleagues living on fixed retirement income and they are absolutely crushed by this inflation, their money buying less and less each passing month. Next time you are at the grocery store, just line up behind a retired old lady and watch for yourself. You will be surprised. Or maybe you are just a heartless person. I hope our central banker will keep raising rates and put you in your place. Would be nice to see your face get slapped on the way down.
#61 Alois on 01.24.23 at 5:15 pm
#56 Ed on 01.24.23 at 4:55 pm
#42 Alois
Please advise ….at what point in history since
Confederation…in 1867…. Canada’s sovereignty was EVER threatened by a foreign adversary.
———-
My Dad would have told you that you are wrong.
(btw he volunteered at 17 and returned 5 years later with 6 medals and fewer friends)
———-
Dear Ed…
If you wish to engage in an objective and constructive discussion….please focus on my original premise.
Again…when was Canada …as a stand- alone sovereign nation….EVER had its autonomy under attack since 1867 ???
What benefit has Canada ever had by allying itself with war mongers ?
———-
If you include the US as a ‘war monger’, I would suggest Canada has benefitted quite extensively.
There is a reason that Canada’ autonomy has never been threatened but it’s not exactly coming to mind at the moment…
Maybe nobody wants to disrupt the world’s supply of maple syrup? Or Canadians are just so nice that an occupying force would feel guilty? Is it our overwhelming military might?
Hmm… it’s a toughie. A bit like sitting down to Thanksgiving dinner wondering why anyone would complain about being hungry when it seems like all this food is so easy to get.
Trying to figure out this 10 year bond yield
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX?p=%5ETNX
It has dropped slightly. So what are investors to think regarding interest rates?
Well, if I was eyeing a 10 year rate, I would assess the expected inflation over that time (along with safety of
the principal, expected US$ reserve status etc).
If the current rate of inflation was high, I would want the central bank(s) to be taking an aggressive stance
by raising short term rates in order to bring inflation under control and protect my longer term investment.
So a high rate in the short term makes me willing to pay a little more (ie lower yield) in the long term.
Is this how it works, or at least how it can work depending on long term forecasts?
They say the “inverted” yield is a strong indicator of a coming recession. I see it as an effect of market sentiment and not the cause.
#61 Alois
………………….
What we have here is failure to extrapolate.
#60 DON on 01.24.23 at 5:08 pm
An oil analyst is predicting that due to increased demand and also refinery maintenance etc gas in the lower mainland will hit $2.65 per litre in the summer. I sure hope he is WRONG.
@Ponzius
I don’t believe in the conspiracy…but the current state of most politicals is seemingly self serving these days. It is all about their celebrity status not sound policy for the whole Country.
Like the senior officials in Ukraine led by an actor. Let me guess he had no idea corruption was taking place.
Can’t make this stuff up.
—————
Agree.
But we in Canada are in a good shape, corruption wise.
Just look around the World.
Israel, Ukraine, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Mexico, etc.
Now we hear that Pence is also in trouble for keeping classified documents in his Indiana home.
Makes Trump look good.
The bested Country in the world is losing its grip on reality.
When we need her most.
To be fair to the Tiff-ster the lower for longer crowd has been noted in the media and publications since 2016 at the very least:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/09/living-lower-longer/
https://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/interest-rates-from-lower-for-longer-to-low-for-no-longer/amp/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-12/bank-of-canada-s-poloz-sees-era-of-low-global-interest-rates
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-inflation-will-stay-low-as-economic-recovery-weighed-down-by-business/
It’s true, people do have the shortest memories.
To rely solely on the words of the current BOC Governor, or any one individual (including a realtor or mom) for guiding your financial decision-making, is entirely on you and any future implications.
Sorry, not sorry.
So will 1-year GICs increase their interest rates?
Will interest rates rise for the Rabies-free GIC Savings account?
What about savings rates?
Or are there better returns searching in the trash?
go CB
go CBs
CN Rail +8% dividend increase.
A yummy stock choo choo!
Good news is my home is paid off on 4 months… bad news is that prices now are down 36% YOY, kicking the equity gain, But, the best news is the developer on one side of me, and the flipper on the other side, hopefully will both go broke. Their attempt at getting rich while creating blight in our area has gone up in smoke. (Chilliwack).
#66 Ed on 01.24.23 at 5:58 pm
#64 Sail Away on 01.24.23 at 5:46 pm
=================
Well….you didn’t engage in an objective invite to discuss the obvious.
Feel free to encourage your family and friends to “defend” Canuckistan against external boogeyman enemies.
My spouses’ Great Uncle..then a 3rd generation Canadian… “fought” for Canada in WW1…he sent several letters back to family wondering WTF he was doing there??? His letters were donated to the national archives.
He died barely out of his teens…shares a plot with 3 others in Europe stacked vertically.
” Oh Canada” ?!?
PS: How did ya’all do in History class 101 ?
@#31 ElGato
“The main issue is that there aren’t enough of the next level up jobs so these graduates could move on to better (paying) jobs.
The second issue is that a good portion are content to just hang around in those jobs rather than move on , admit they made an expensive mistake and go where the jobs are , currently trades , potentially STEM .
reality is that never in the history of the world arts focus has paid the bills for a large number of people , for a few yes , but not in the quantity of graduates we have today.”
+++
Easy.
Quintillian is still hurting over the info provided about Starbucks Baristas….
+++++
Re Sail away to Quinty
Let me Google that for you:
Wow, lots.
“The most common highest degree level of Starbucks employees is bachelors, with 47% of employees having at least a bachelors.
The most common major among Starbucks employees is business. 20% of Starbucks employees majored in business.”
https://www.zippia.com/starbucks-careers-10803/demographics/
=======
Apparently people with worthless degrees and large school debt….can’t handle the truth.
“On the day of victory, no fatigue is felt”- British proverb
“Rates can never rise because everybody’s in debt”
In 1980 it was the same to a lesser degree and Paul Volker raised the fed rate high enough that in Canada the CIBC was offering 19% on 5 year GICs. To the money powers the fate of debtors including governments doesn’t matter. Debtors can pay the price or lose their collateral and more. Sing it folks. Neither a borrower or a lender be, that’s good advice and good policy! A line from the much reviled play the Merchant of Venice.
#22 Korn dog on 01.24.23 at 3:09 pm
Long time reader, small business owner and was wondering if I could get your expert opinion on a crisis I’m having. I run an equipment rental business and rental price for an acre of industrial land in Vancouver is has now become almost impossible to manage for me anymore. Purchasing is impossible because it averages 5 million an acre. At this point I’m attempting to cut costs but I don’t think I’ll find enough to cover. Any advice would be appreciated. Should i whole sale everything now or would interest rates give me a glimmer of hope that industrial properties might fall in rent or cost in the future?
_________________________________
Trade the equipment for an acre of land, then rent the land to the guy with the equipment!
“Voters would seek revenge. It’s a losing strategy.” Revenge on whom? It’s not like the can vote for someone else, which is part of the problem.
#6 We Have Been to This Movie Before on 01.24.23 at 2:03 pm
By the time the dust settles, my bets are early to mid 1990s pricing across Canada or lower as the rate increases, crypto losses, stock losses, job losses, death rates and families all start moving in together, dropping demand, all start to magnify and fear sets into buyer’s minds.
————
American House Buyer will simply change his name to Canadian House Buyer and start snapping them up, 20 to 50 houses at a time…
30 Sail Away on 01.24.23 at 3:22 pm
#18 ElGatoNeroYVR on 01.24.23 at 2:47 pm
Because putting your life on the line to defend our way of life is worth way more than what we a a society (re)pay these people.
The more disgusting it is the billionaires and multinationals exploiting every loophole to pay significant less taxes than the working class.
———
Agreed. All veterans should be given $5M reparations immediately and never pay any taxes whatsoever. It’s the least we can do. Your support is appreciated
————————————-
Agree.
And tax the crap out of Musk and cohorts to pay for it.
You’re a genius, Sailo.
Ready to vote for any government that balances the budget, returns capital punishment, and reduces the government workforce by 50% at least.
Who’s on board with this???
73 Alois on 01.24.23 at 6:50 pm
#66 Ed on 01.24.23 at 5:58 pm
#64 Sail Away on 01.24.23 at 5:46 pm
=================
Well….you didn’t engage in an objective invite to discuss the obvious.
Feel free to encourage your family and friends to “defend” Canuckistan against external boogeyman enemies.
My spouses’ Great Uncle..then a 3rd generation Canadian… “fought” for Canada in WW1…he sent several letters back to family wondering WTF he was doing there??? His letters were donated to the national archives.
He died barely out of his teens…shares a plot with 3 others in Europe stacked vertically.
” Oh Canada” ?!?
PS: How did ya’all do in History class 101 ?
———————-+———
Alois,
You got my vote on this one.
The German movie “All quiet on the Western Front” has got 9 Oscar nominations.
Should be called “War, what is it good for?”
“Until a resolution is found (like the Treasury issuing a $1 trillion coin, and handing it over)”
In case anyone missed it, that was a joke. A trillion dollar coin is worth exactly as much as the base metal it is made out of, not the stamp value. See gold or silver for details.
Making a “trillion dollar coin” would be no different than making a trillion dollar bank note. We know what happened when Zimbabwe resorted to such measures.
You can test this in the extremes. If one “trillion dollar coin” is a good idea, why not two? While we are at it, why not print one for everyone who can afford the base metal content it takes to make it? Heck let’s print one for everybody and hand them out! Certainly if everybody was a trillionaire, our problems would be solved! Well, maybe not, but people would get a quick education as to how inflation works and what money is.
The idea that the BOC is even thinking about pivoting now – with inflation still running ridiculously hot and full employment tells you everything you need to know about their priorities. They have been pumping markets since 2008.
Listen I’m all for juiced markets, I can figure out how to get mine, but this idea that the BOC as a market prop is terrible for society. I always thought those globalist fear mongers were idiots but maybe the fix is in. Act accordingly.
This will not end well, at some point the bill will need to be paid for all this excess. Or maybe we can just recklessly spend forever, basement walk outs in Maple Ridge are worth a mil, and everyone will drive an F350 towing a 5th wheel, with a trip to Mex and a little sider to AZ every year.
Freeland silent on tanks for Ukraine, but says victory would boost world economy
——————
Hogwash.
Rebuilding Ukraine will cost up to a trillion Euros.
And leaving Russia a roque state with the most nuclear warheads, will leave the world in a very precarious state.
A ceasefire and a compromise must be found.
@#82 Ponzies Prussian Pals
“The German movie “All quiet on the Western Front” has got 9 Oscar nominations.
Should be called “War, what is it good for?””
+++
Ironic since its obvious the German people learned nothing after the ravages of WWI
The German Kaiser stepped down and was eventually replaced by a WWI corporal that decided “Round Two” was the only option.
I prefer the autobiographical “Storm of Steel” written by a German soldier that survived the boredom, insanity and nightmare of WWI to the Hollywood version of ‘All quiet….”
Lets see it Putin has learned anything from his own nation’s history at war.
400,000 troops?
500,000 troops massed on the Ukraine border ?
Ready to go when the ice, snow of Winter and muck of Spring ends in May…
The stupidity of politicians and the slaughter of tens of thousands of men proves we have learned nothing.
#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.24.23
“War, what is it good for?”
—————
Well, just off the top of my head, war:
Stopped Hitler
Liberated Kuwait
Kept Ukraine free so far
Freed America
Beat Sauron
…and yes, military was required to do those things. Of course, chilling next to the biggest, baddest gorilla in the world, one might forget and think freedom just happens with the ability to enforce.
#62 ogdoad
Well, here we are in the milky way…soaring through space…on a rock – or a piece of fuzz. Nobody can tell. After ‘work’ we’re just waiting to die (at 80ish)…worrying how we have compared to others during the course of our lives. Blah, blah, blahing about how busy we were….unable to be ‘busy’ during the afterwork times b/c nobody cares about irrelevancy or teslas anymore – shame. Og still cares. Bathing helps. So do little blue pills. Trust me!
That was both hilarious and poignant
@#86 Ponzies appeasement Policies ( Pap )
“A ceasefire and a compromise must be found.”
+++
I guess you would have to convince the ruthless dictator Putin ( who started the entire fiasco) to agree to a ceasefire and then allowing himself to be arrested, charged, jailed for life……
Seems a fair trade for the killing of tens of thousands of Ukrainians… don’t you think?
Nah.
His own people will poison him.
It’s the Russian way.
Then his head on a stick in front of the Kremlin with thousands of cheering Russians glad that he’s gone.
“Proof of Death” and all that.
#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.24.23 at 9:08 pm
And leaving Russia a roque state with the most nuclear warheads, will leave the world in a very precarious state.
+++++++++++++++++
Our side has them too. It is why Putin will never use his.
Which Countries Have Nuclear Weapons?
Russia — 6,257 (1,458 active, 3039 available, 1,760 retired)
United States — 5,550 (1,389 active, 2,361 available, 1,800 retired)
#85 Quinty
Why do you bother arguing rationally with FURZ and Sailo.
Both of them are graduates of the School of Google.
And just barely passed.
#85 Quintilian on 01.24.23 at 9:04 pm
So the question for Sailorman:
But how many remain baristas and how long?
—————
I can’t keep doing the Google magic for you, sorry.
It’s easy to learn.
@#85 Quinty’s Quandry
“But how many remain baristas and how long?”
+++
Sooo.
You admit we were right about over educated, heavily indebted….baristas.
Apology accepted.
91 Yukon Elvis on 01.24.23 at 10:00 pm
#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.24.23 at 9:08 pm
And leaving Russia a roque state with the most nuclear warheads, will leave the world in a very precarious state.
+++++++++++++++++
Our side has them too. It is why Putin will never use his.
Which Countries Have Nuclear Weapons?
Russia — 6,257 (1,458 active, 3039 available, 1,760 retired)
United States — 5,550 (1,389 active, 2,361 available, 1,800 retired)
———————-
The old “us vs. them” mentality.
Remember Russia was once on “our” side.
Stalin sitting between Roosevelt and Churchill in Yalta.
When “we” gave up all of Eastern Europe.
Which led to the Iron Curtain and the Cold War.
And millions of people dead in various wars.
And here we go again.
@ 76 Sorry Steve, it is Hamlet Act 1 Scene 3 Polonius speaking to his son Laertes and giving him advice before going to university. As he says, a borrower will often lose his debt and his friends and borrowing stops one from saving wisely.
Toronto most overrated city in Canada.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/lifestyle/five-canadian-cities-among-most-overrated-in-the-world-report-1.6244958
I live here. It’s true.
And you should look at the people and their faces. My goodness…good luck finding a smile.
So 8 consecutive rate hikes are necessary to return us to the BOC 2% inflation target ? I guess our municipalities across Ontario are ignoring the “sticky factor”. The City of Toronto just passed a record 5.5% tax hike, the union representing 35,000 over-worked CRA employees are demanding a 20.5 per cent wage increase over 3 years, in addition to a one-time wage adjustment of 9%. Hmmmm what to do Mr Bank Governor?
Whatever happens to housing will depend on the political whim of the month. When the time comes to swing the economy around the government will manipulate rates the other way and housing along with equity markets will rip higher.
#22 Korn dog on 01.24.23 at 3:09 pm
Long time reader, small business owner and was wondering if I could get your expert opinion on a crisis I’m having. I run an equipment rental business and rental price for an acre of industrial land in Vancouver is has now become almost impossible to manage for me anymore. Purchasing is impossible because it averages 5 million an acre. At this point I’m attempting to cut costs but I don’t think I’ll find enough to cover. Any advice would be appreciated. Should i whole sale everything now or would interest rates give me a glimmer of hope that industrial properties might fall in rent or cost in the future?
*******
How about relocating to Vanvouver Island where equipment rentals thrive. We need more. Cheaper rent etc.
A pause is a pivot. Once the pause happens…wherever we are will be the terminal rate. Super bullish
Korn Dog mentioned the high price of Industrial land. Counterintuitively, demand increased during Covid supply chain disruptions. The small industrial suppliers, manufacturers, wholesalers lost customers & money if they were too reliant on “just in time” sourcing. If they had outsourced their manufacturing for bigger profits. Or were skimpy on their inventory. More space needed.
I deal with a logging manufacturer for any heavy rigging. He had his best year ever in 2021 then bested that in 2022. A customer phoned him up & asked him, ” How come your in North Surrey & can give me a price & deliver next week while the guy in Langley gives me a price & delivers in three months”. Easy says my friend. I bought a million dollars worth of raw steel & stored it in my parking lot because decades of a family business taught us steel was going uppa uppa uppa.. The forklift brings it into the shop & I make it here. The guy in Langley gets it made in China.
Some of these guys are 2nd, even 3rd generation. Everything is paid for. They get big hits & keep their heads down. If a nearby choice tasty piece of Industrial land comes available its hard to resist. Room to expand or cash flow from renting while you decide .
#3 truefacts on 01.24.23 at 1:57 pm
@ Seamsy 31 – (from Yesterday)…
Why do active duty soldiers not pay income taxes but the rest of us do?
You must be joking, misinformed or else what kind of BS are you trying to spread?
______________________________________
Sorry, I used the term “active duty” should have used the term “deployed”, but not BS, it’s a FACT…
For members of the Canadian Armed Forces and police officers deployed on international operations. You are not required to pay income tax on money earned while on active duty,
————————————–
Other Canadians living abroad don’t have to pay Canadian income taxes either. Instead, you pay taxes in the jurisdiction where you reside. Anyway why are we picking on soldiers? It’s not like they get paid a whole bunch to begin with. A little bonus for being overseas is in order I think.
We should maybe find things of more substance to discuss.
Smacking our chops waiting for waht meat is left on the bones. 20 years of excessive spenging and waste in Canada’s housing markets is already showing up as some great areas to go in and scoop deals across Canada. Broke Young People wannabe are especally easy to spot – age and number of vehicles with oversized monthly payments, boats, snowmobiles, RVs etc on the driveway. We know wher to strike when the iron is hot. Ka-Ching!!
The MIRGA crowd. Make Interest Rates Great Again!
#85 Quintilian
That them there made me laugh!
Go get em! Get er done!
This should be fun.
“American House Buyer will simply change his name to Canadian House Buyer and start snapping them up, 20 to 50 houses at a time…”
——————————————————————–
Yes in similar exotic locales as his examples. Timmins, Kenora, Chicoutimi, Bathurst, Pouce Coupe, Dildo and of course Climax Sask
@ #20 saskatoon on 01.24.23 at 2:57 pm
“killing jobs isn’t good, garth.
the number of jobs existent in any particular economy has nothing to do with the overall inflation rate.
additionally, central banks cannot control inflation by adjusting interest rates.
if you believe this, you either don’t understand history…or you have been tricked into thinking central banks have more power than they actually do.”
——————————————————————–
Care to recommend some literature to support your statement about CBs not having the ability to influence inflation with interest rates? I’d like to read some of the history books you’d recommend for reference. I’m alway’s interested in understanding the contrarian view, but I need some book recommendations please. TIA.
87 Crowd
Judging by their reluctance, Germany may have learned something in 1941 about sending tanks through Ukraine towards Russia (Barbarossa). Too bad, New Europe will force their hand.
We’re already in a recession. The cheerleaders are misleading you. I posted about the corruption in Ukraine and was banned, but today I read in the news that Zelensky is having to deal with major corruption. So, sorry for being ahead of the news cycle??????????
I was getting threads detailing how property records in Zurich were showing large numbers of Ukrainian army and bureaucrats showing up in Lambos buying expensive lakefront homes. Is reporting a crime now?
Did Garth wake up to the fact it was 100% BS????
OMG….
“”Was Covid a legitimate public health emergency, or a classic example of government overreach? And was it justified for the nation to plunge into deficit and over $1 trillion in debt because of the pandemic? “”
@ #16
2-3% would inflame the borrowing binge all over again. Rates need to stay at 5% minimum. That clears out the deadbeats and maintains currency and pricing in the real economy. The world needs this stability-making policy.
Badly.
@ #40
Hear, hear!
Canadian housing is crashing. Buy in USA. Rent in Canada. Cheap mortgages are no longer being subsidized by depositors.
@#109 Oblio
Germany’s pacifist govt has had generations of occupation by the Russians in their Eastern regions and the West occupying in the Western regions.
They have been running their own show for what?
25 years?
Understandable they are nervous about poking the Russian bear.
This time Putin is Hitler and he’s willing to rampage all across Europe just to prove he’s right.
And as both sides deplete their military hardware on an alarming scale…
China patiently watches and waits.
DELETED (Language)
RIP Middle Class. A grand post-WW2 marketing experiment. Died March 2020.
Now, even, a two income household may not afford a home in GTA, GVA. Suggestion: get a 3rd spouse??
Another round of Karbon taxes will do the trick.
Loving this 2% inflation target stuff.
“”The Financial Post reports in its Wednesday edition that another round of price hikes will start hitting grocery stores in the coming weeks, mostly due to the end of a little-known holiday tradition in the grocery business, says Metro chief executive officer Eric La Fleche. The Post’s Jake Edmiston writes that Mr. La Fleche says his chain, like most of its rivals, runs an annual blackout on all cost increases from mid-November until February, as a way of making things as simple as possible during the all-important holiday rush. That meant food suppliers could not ask grocers for more money even as inflation tore through the supply chain, making fuel and freight and packaging more expensive. So the requests piled up. Metro now has a backlog of “thousands” of those requests, says Mr. La Fleche. …
© 2023 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.
Uppa uppa to the moon Ethel
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-bank-of-canada-low-interest-rates-over/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links
#97 T.Oh.No on 01.24.23 at 11:05 pm
Toronto most overrated city in Canada.
Obvious list is obvious. Never been or heard about the Toronto Zoo, but okay the Montreal Biodome is basically a small, enclosed zoo with walkways. Ottawa is very boring agreed.
London Eye okay a ferris wheel, we also recently installed on at the old port.
Montmartre, err well a touristy enclave in arguably the most touristy city.
Hachiko, a brass statue that is THE local landmark to be photograph at, crowds. Shibuya crossing itself is a lot smaller in real life I have to say.
#108 T-Rev
A good start is to dive into Greenspan/Fed white papers from the early-mid 2000s.
You can also try looking up “the volcker myth”.
@
#52 Just Sayin’ Dumbos on 01.24.23 at 4:24 pm
https://theoldhouselife.com/2023/01/24/pretty-floors-circa-1920-in-south-carolina-149900/?fbclid=IwAR2T-ZsyA7VJAmC3547619T4eT-47oZjkzMEzqgW-zrv8420Lp_k-L_b_a0
++++++++++++++
there are tons of great/old/cheap/houses in places where nobody wants to live.
Enochian is an occult constructed language — said by its originators to have been received from angels — recorded in the private journals of John Dee and his colleague Edward Kelley in late 16th-century England. Kelley was a scryer who worked with Dee in his magical investigations.
Purpose: Divine language: Enochian
Date: 1583–1584
Created by: John Dee; Edward Kelley
Setting and usage: Occult journals
===================================
fake medical degrees/not peer reviewed papers payment to a journal for 995.
I would ask Our premier : On rushing to fast track doctors or nurses would an AI algo screen for fake medical degrees etc?
Where was the due diligence. This is worse than theranos!
https://blood-money.simplecast.com/episodes/serhat-gumrukcu-yEzC_NZu
https://hindenburgresearch.com/enochian/
Miracle Cures and Murder For Hire: How A Spoon-Bending Turkish Magician Built A $600 Million Nasdaq-Listed Scam Based On A Lifetime Of Lies
Published on June 1, 2022
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/enochian-ceo-short-attack-propaganda-scheme-murder-hire-arrest-scientific-co-founder
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220601006135/en/Glancy-Prongay-Murray-LLP-a-Leading-Securities-Fraud-Law-Firm-Continues-Investigation-of-Enochian-Biosciences-Inc.-ENOB-on-Behalf-of-Investors
https://www.justice.gov/usao-vt/pr/two-men-charged-murder-hire-conspiracy-resulting-death
lauded for his “groundbreaking” research into HIV and COVID. But after a body is found in the Vermont snow, he is exposed as a con man who sells fake cancer cures.
The Fake Doctor: Serhat Gumrukcu Blood Money
https://podcasts.apple.com › podcast › the-fake-doctor-s…
Millionaire biotech mogul Dr. Serhat Gumrukcu
TUESDAY, AUGUST 2, 2022
8/2/2022 4:00:00 PM
Share This Episode
The Biotech Founder Facing Murder Charges
Enochian Biosciences co-founder Serhat Gumrukcu was working to build a name for himself in biotech. But earlier this year, he was arrested in a purported plot to kill an associate. WSJ’s Joseph Walker tells the story of Gumrukcu’s rise and what prosecutors allege happened.
Further Reading:
-Biotech Wizard Left a Trail of Fraud – Prosecutors Allege it Ended in Murder
Funny thing is, right now interest rates ARE quite low!
It’s just that nobody has caught on yet.
Snippets from BOC Monetary Report ( 01/23/2023) ( a.k.a. the pause versus pivot speech)
-As the effects of higher interest rates continue to spread through the economy, and ‘with declines in energy prices’ and improved supply chains, inflation is projected to fall to around 3% in the middle of 2023 and reach the 2% target in 2024.
-‘Lower energy prices’, improved global supply chains and slowing demand should bring inflation down significantly this year.
-Globally, inflation remains high and broad-based. It has receded from its peak in many countries, ‘largely due to lower energy prices’ and an easing of supply chain disruptions.
-Needless to say, there are risks around this projection. The biggest near-term risk is that ‘global energy prices could increase’, pushing inflation up globally.
-China’s abrupt lifting of COVID-19 restrictions is a new uncertainty which poses upside risks to ‘global commodity prices’. +++
Doesn’t take a genius to see the common theme in most of the statements made this morning. It’s all about the price of and demand for oil, baby. Too bad the collective West picked a fight with a major supplier for which the other half of the developing world has been the beneficiary. China is now coming out of hiberation, and the Polar Vortex is a whole new spin on ‘From Russia with Love’. Park those fossil fuel driven vehicles peeps, get out those mittens, scarves, and other warm clothes, and prepare for higher food prices. ( your Caesar Salad arrives by truck from California). Somebody maybe give Sleepy Joe a call and tell him it’s time to open up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve again… Happy Robbie Burns Day. If only the border collies were still running the world…
So Tiff put ‘er up 0.25% as anticipated.
But microsoft earnings “disappoint”, and the markets drop. More earnings coming.
Tiff’s CBC live stream says pause is “conditional” and
lowering rate is not on the radar.
Close, but not exactly. “Too early” to talk about cuts, he said. Entirely reasonable comment. – Garth
Ah, a fine morning. Slurped up more railroads on the day’s dip.
Eagerly anticipating today’s Tesla earnings.
#124 the Jaguar on 01.25.23 at 11:42 am
Too bad the collective West picked a fight
—
🤡
Tiff’s CBC live stream says pause is “conditional” and
lowering rate is not on the radar.
Close, but not exactly. “Too early” to talk about cuts, he said. Entirely reasonable comment. – Garth
——————————————————-
Thanks Garth. I was typing on PC while listening on tablet and didnt get wording quite right.
Yes, I believe Tiff is very reasonable, and has been clear on the target of 2% inflation. He has front-loaded the rates (as he said they would) and is now watching indicators for the effects and will act accodingly. He understands this is painful for many Canadians but will be worth it in the long run.
CRAZY STUFF
The whole thing is so whacky that legislation will be introduced so that the BOC can get out of debt by retaining its earnings rather than returning the earnings back to the government.
Just how much have they intervened to keep interest rates so low for so long?
in Donegal, and 7,000 homes were all affected
https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/donegal-s-mica-crisis-it-s-not-who-has-mica-it-s-who-doesn-t-1.4700995
@#128 Faron on 01.25.23 at 11:59 am
#124 the Jaguar on 01.25.23 at 11:42 am
Too bad the collective West picked a fight
—
+++++++++++++
the west picked a fight?
indeed.
Looks like reality is hitting home for millions of broke Canadians. Your fantasy world where the rich backstop your borrowing with subsidized low intereest rates has come crashing down on you. It is going to be super fun when a 5 yr is 12% – Start packing chumps you are going back to your mommy’s basements.
re: #128 Faron/ Resident Hysteric @ 01.25.23 at 11:59 am++
‘Starting a fight’ and ‘picking a fight’ are not the same thing. If you incite, provoke, fan the flames, etc. it doesn’t follow that you throw the first punch. Nor does it mean you are innocent in the conflict…
That you can’t see this might explain your constant harassment of Sail Away. That, and the fact he represents everything you are not. He an accomplished, secure, Alpha Male. You, a fart smeller…
#115 Crowd
“and he’s willing to rampage all across Europe just to prove he’s right” –that’s one way to look at it (although a tad hyperbolic).
Another way is to say that he’s willing to put it all on the line to block that route and eliminate a repeat of Barbarossa. The siege of Stalingrad ended 80 years ago, but is still a bitter memory for Russia.
Sail Away has already convicted the guy (still in hospital BTW) whose Tesla went off a cliff in California of the crime of attempted murder. Still, it might be worth mentioning that police are doing their jobs and investigating what may or may not be a crime. Because, that’s how justice works for people who live in reality. Sail Away is more than happy to let the system play out in a case where a guy shot and killed people on video, but he’s unwilling to let the system do its work when his precious Elon is partly on trial.
🤡
#130 Quin
Correct, and that is how the law is written in the states.
…And its capital is not impacted by the losses because the Fed carries the losses as a “deferred asset” on its balance sheet, rather than taking the losses against capital.
Every week, the Fed has to remit its estimated income to the Treasury department, and those remittances stopped in September when the Fed started losing money. The remittances won’t get going again until the deferred asset has been fully wiped out by future net income. So it could be years before the Treasury gets any remittances again. –Wolf Street
There’s also this. FSD implies one can let the far “full self-drive”, right? Might it not be possible that a car that can’t avoid a bicycle at 36kph, might miss a curve at a much higher speed? Also note how self-driving turns off right at the critical moment. If the driver had hit the cyclist, the data would show that FSD was not on at the time of impact even though it is clearly at fault.
Mercedes? They accept the liability for their software.
#134 the Jaguar on 01.25.23 at 1:34 pm
meh. Maybe. I mean, he hasn’t bleated out his net worth in a while and we all know that $$$ is the be all, end all.
Haaaaa ha ha haaaa haha. Precious. Dear heart, anyone who comments on the internet as much as he, I, you, Crowdie, Garth… you name it is anything but secure. LOL.
Unfortunately, that’s a trope. I’ll grant that your tropes adhere to a particular, extremely limited, model of the world. It’s strange that your insults never sting. At all. I wonder why that is?
#134 Faron on 01.25.23 at 1:42 pm
Sail Away has already convicted the guy (still in hospital BTW) whose Tesla went off a cliff in California of the crime of attempted murder. Still, it might be worth mentioning that police are doing their jobs and investigating what may or may not be a crime. Because, that’s how justice works for people who live in reality. Sail Away is more than happy to let the system play out in a case where a guy shot and killed people on video, but he’s unwilling to let the system do its work when his precious Elon is partly on trial.
——–
Lol. My arms are twice as big as yours, but you’re way mouthier. Let’s call it a draw.
‘Starting a fight’ and ‘picking a fight’ are not the same thing. If you incite, provoke, fan the flames, etc. it doesn’t follow that you throw the first punch. Nor does it mean you are innocent in the conflict…
—————–
In China “picking quarrels” is a chargeable offence that leads to jail time in a re-education workcamp….perhaps Garth can institute a similar policy…
𝕆ne more:
Can you imagine owing $3 Billion unsecured at an interest rate of 14.5%? That’s Elon’s Twitter right now. Rate tracks fed overnight and goes up by 0.5% per quarter.
My fave:
Not too surprising given that Twitter hasn’t paid rent, is auctioning off furniture, and doesn’t provide TP for its workers. Oh, and it also creates accounts for people out of the blue (fer muh user growth) and lets long-banned neo-Nazis run amok.
For this, I’ll give today’s 3ʳᵈ and final:
🤡
I’m betting my on money the first Bank of Canada rate cut will be in March 2024. I ‘ve said the same thing since the beginning of last year.
Re: #125 Dr V on 01.25.23 at 11:44 am
Earnings seem to matter this year just like last year. Before last year for about a decade earnings were meaningless.
@#142 Faron.
I never could understand the appeal of Twitter.
Or why Musk wanted to buy it.
I guess after Tesla, SpaceX and his Battery factories….he was bored?
Oh almost forgot….
https://www.boringcompany.com/
He can’t keep turning Lead into Gold.
Twitter is his multi billion dollar face slap back to reality.
I don’t like being on the wrong side of consensus, but I often find myself there and have to develop my spine. The consensus to which I speak now is we are looking at a soft landing and 2% inflation by the end of 2023.
My opinion is a brief mild recession which is not significantly different from a soft landing of zero GNP. However, I think inflation will get stuck well above 2% until 2024 at best. To me, that means slow interest rate cuts to perhaps 4% during the stuck period. Bonds will benefit.
I have heard EM ETF’s is the place to be. I am not so charmed. The US$ looks ready to start fading and will take the CDN$ with it which is inflationary for Canada. I know a country does not become wealthy through consumption alone. I believe in productivity and selling stuff abroad. I see our productivity being squeezed like grapes in a wine (whine?) press. It is what happens you raise the floor and fix the ceiling.
I like to say that 2 out of 3 is a good day for me. I always look to minimize my losses and learn from what went wrong. About the only thing I control is my life.