When buyers rule

Did you miss the news late last week?

“Once again, you can’t make this shit up,” says our fav, crusty old Boomer loans broker. “the Canadian bank regulator says now is the time for a close look at mortgage lending Sigh…..

“When mortgage holders are bleeding from high rates and house prices are STILL batshit crazy,” adds Ron Butler, “now is the time to tighten lending rules? Last 3 Years, everything was just peachy, couldn’t do anything? What world are these folks in that facts take years to absorb?”

What he’s ragging on is OSFI, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. The banking cop. It has one, and only one, duty – to protect the integrity, viability and stability of the banking sector. It’s not about you. It’s about them. OSFI doesn’t actually think of real estate sales or prices. It cares about the risk posed by a giant, historic pile of mortgage debt – most of which belongs to the banks.

So what’s the issue in 2023?

“Unprecedented house price increases have been accompanied by record levels of household indebtedness, of which residential mortgages account for a large share,” says the regulator. “Federally regulated financial institution lenders, which hold approximately 80% of all residential mortgages in Canada, are exposed to heightened risks from this indebtedness.”

This means the rules of lending will change. For the next 90 days the agency will be hearing comments from lenders, realtors and bankers, and then the hammer will drop. There will be three major changes, all aimed at forcing Canadians to borrow less.

Three major changes to restrict mortgage credit

Loan-to-income and debt-to-income restrictions will put a cap on the amount a person can borrow based on what they earn or their total indebtedness. This is designed to curtail loans to people borrowing 450% (or more) of their income. How many is that? Up to 40% of the entire mortgage industry. Yikes.

OSFI also wants to have “lender-level” limits in place, so companies making loans won’t be able to exceed a certain threshold of higher-risk mortgages. Additionally, the regulator wants the strict income-to-debt ratios in place for CMHC-insured (low down payment) loans to apply to all mortgages, regardless of how much equity a purchaser might have. And, as if that’s not enough, OSFI is suggesting the stress test – which now makes all borrowers qualify at more than 7% – be more “risk-sensitive”. So, for example, it might be a higher bar to leap if you want a variable-rate mortgage rather than one with a fixed rate, or a two-year term instead of five.

“Lenders still face increased risks,” says the regulator. “Mortgage interest rates are at their highest in over a decade. Borrowers are facing record levels of indebtedness. Additionally the pace of economic growth in Canada is slowing and is expected to moderate further, with the potential for downside global risk due to the combined tightening of central banks.”

Well, there ya go. Just when 2023 was about to deliver the worst end-to-end residential real estate market in decades (maybe forever), OSFI decided to come down from the hills and shoot the wounded. You should expect implementation of these new restrictions by the summer. Might be a capital idea to sell before then, if that’s something you’ve been pondering.

Meanwhile, what’s going down on the streets?

Crickets. Sales have crashed. Normally the Spring market would be kicking off in a few weeks, but this year everything has changed. A snappy, impeccable, all-done, high-end urban semi listed for $2.6 million late last summer received no written offers. The price dropped to $2.4 million, also rentable for seven grand a month. Nothing. Now it ‘s $2.2 million.

And check out this vendor, which agent Stephen Glaysher chooses as his “motivated seller of the week.”

Motivated seller chops the price by $1 million

“As the calendar has turned to 2023 there have already been 100s of price drops signifying motivation and the realization of buying power amidst rising interest rates!” he tells clients. “Take this Summerhill listing in midtown Toronto for example… Originally listed at $4,999,990 this listing is now available with a 1 million dollar price drop to $3,990,990. Expect to see a large # of price drops as well as relistings at reduced prices following the holidays as sellers come to realizations of BUYERS MARKET Conditions!!”

Remember that interest rates go up again in a few days. It’s been 22 years since the prime rate at the banks has hovered in the 7% range. But back in 2001 properties in Toronto sold for an average of $251,500. Now the number is $1,189,850. Two mill is the new one mill.

The bank cop thinks that’s crazy risky. What if the bottom falls out? It believes people should be held back from financial suicide. And so they shall.

Did I mention selling?

About the picture: “Garth, I know you prefer dogs,” writes Valeh, “but you absolutely have to post this picture of my wedding officiants’ Scottish Fold kitten. So freaking adorable!”

Have a beast to share with the pack? Send a picture and some words to “[email protected]” – Garth

118 comments ↓

#1 THE DANDADA on 01.15.23 at 2:56 pm

Send it ALL to ZERO…….. Everything!!

#2 Flop… on 01.15.23 at 3:05 pm

Join me on my Vancouver real estate podcast this afternoon, where I discuss the following topics.

When the exact date of the bottom of the correction in Vancouver will be.

Why Vancouver will always be behind Burnaby in alphabetical order on real estate listings.

What city I think Uncle Crowdie and Uncle Ponzie should choose to buy a duplex together in, so they can shout through the common wall at each other at all hours of the night…

M48BC

#3 American House Buyer on 01.15.23 at 3:09 pm

These are the days when you walk in with your realtor to present your lowest offer and say take it or leave it. If they flinch go write another offer on another house or condo. When no is looking the deals get better by the day.
Remember you can buy 20 – 50 houses in the USA for a million. Never waste a penny on a condo in Canada – go buy 10 – 15 houses in the USA instead and cash USA dollar rent checks for the rest of your life and never have to work again.

#4 Dave on 01.15.23 at 3:15 pm

So how big of a correction is metro Vancouver looking at?

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.15.23 at 3:16 pm

Its time for a “Bubble Bath”
Let the Canadian mortgage industry experience what every other country has since 2008…

#6 Elno (let's get Tesla stock to $54.20) Musky on 01.15.23 at 3:26 pm

That place in the picture is supposed to be worth four million? Previously thought to be worth five, more than insane. Lots of shade from the apartment building 15 feet away and on the other side if you have a long arm you can touch the house next door from your side of the driveway. For that kind of money you could have an amazing place outside the city with money left over for the toys to use on the extra land that would come with it. But I don’t care for being so close to people even with the conveniences I guess are close by.
The OSFI is at least eight years, probably more, to late.

#7 tsirrus on 01.15.23 at 3:32 pm

Here are some suggestions:
-Cap CMHC insurance so that the lender has levels of risk. Example: 5% risk of the mortgage value for up to the national average, 15% for up to 1 standard deviation above, 25% for 2 std dev above, 35% above that.
-Implement nation-wide record-keeping of sales.
-I know it’s the government, but gradually re-introduce cap gains on home sells over a 10 year period.

I wonder if the Trudeau-Singh government will step in to file any teeth OSFI has. If not, I wonder if this might lead to their marriage-of-convenience breakup.

#8 Nora Lenderby on 01.15.23 at 3:38 pm

People talk about bull markets and bear markets, but now we have the cat market?

Capricious, unrelenting and cruel to small animals.

#9 the Jaguar on 01.15.23 at 3:40 pm

” OSFI decided to come down from the hills and shoot the wounded. ” – GT ++

Diabolical! Though it might make sense to put some out of their misery…Just sayin’.

These were interesting snippets from the news release :

– Debt service coverage restrictions. ( Ahem….I recollect Goldilocks used this maneuver when she ate the three bears porridge. Think I can hear murmurs of “party pooper” from the ancient warriors… )

-“Imposing such limits may also reduce the potential for policy leakage and migration of lending activity to the unregulated lending sphere,” OSFI says. (Pete, you underestimate the ‘unregulated lending sphere’. They are slipperier than a pocketful of puddin’, as the Texans like to say…)

“99.86 per cent of Canadians are current on their mortgages,” an all-time low arrears rate. ( Are they not also cashing in investments like chips at a Casino, Pete? Or maybe they are ‘robbing Peter to pay Paul vis-a-vis their other credit lines and cards).

Oh well. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see what happens later this summer when the survey results are in and the Chicken Hawk Posse rides into town. Should be considerable blood on the saloon floor by then and they’ll come off as masterminds.

#10 Felix on 01.15.23 at 3:47 pm

Great picture today, finally! Cats rule!

Plus having cats will make you smarter, and more capable of avoiding real estate bubbles like this one that will be so sad for so many mutt owners.

More Good News:

Canadian Geographic announces winner of its Photographer of the Year – it’s someone who takes pictures of wild cats. Of course!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/photographer-captures-serene-lynx-for-canadian-geographic-s-2022-photos-of-the-year-competition-1.6230937

(Canadian Geographic does not allow entrants to present photos of canines or any other dogawful vermin, to maintain high standards in its contest)

#11 Abbas on 01.15.23 at 3:48 pm

WOW scary predictions but it’s overdue for reality to set in…

#12 al on 01.15.23 at 3:49 pm

Overpriced 5 mil home gets a 20% chop..yawn. Needs another mil or two chop.

#13 DON on 01.15.23 at 3:51 pm

OSFI decided to come down from the hills and shoot the wounded. You should expect implementation of these new restrictions by the summer. Might be a capital idea to sell before then, if that’s something you’ve been pondering.

**********
Garth is on the Jazz again.

That 40% of the entire mortgage industry is a capitals….YIKESSSSSS!

Geezus.

#14 Alois on 01.15.23 at 3:54 pm

“Once again, you can’t make this shit up,”

“When mortgage holders are bleeding from high rates and house prices are STILL batshit crazy,”

==================

Such language, and on Sunday..

…….really p*sses me off

#15 Grandv!ew on 01.15.23 at 3:54 pm

Two like this (for under $1 Mil Canadian $)and you get permanent residence and also access to EU job market. Putin will lose and the war will stop. Cost of living is one half of the cost of living in Canada. Weather is nicer (if you like sunshine and hot). If you have university education it should not be a problem to find the job in EU. Healthcare is better. Taxes are lower. There should be no fear of change. Are we that timid….?

https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-2813041-pcpt3y/ciudad-quesada-rojales-ac

More selection to choose from….

https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/esp/price-low-sort/0-1000000-price/3-beds/2-baths

#16 Terry on 01.15.23 at 3:59 pm

“Expect to see a large # of price drops as well as relistings at reduced prices following the holidays as sellers come to realizations of BUYERS MARKET Conditions!!”

It’s the re-pricing through re-listing that is going to take years to find a bottom. We are not seeing a minor housing correction here. That ship has passed. Canada is experiencing a major structural housing market crash. We are years away, maybe in the spring of 2025 before we begin to see a bottom in falling real Estate prices. After that time it’s very unlikely that prices will ever in our lifetimes climb back up to their historic highs of February/March of 2022. The Canadian Real Estate bubble has popped. It’s over. Now the bleed out hemorrhages for years to come………..OHHHHH Canada………what have we done?

#17 Anthony Berman on 01.15.23 at 3:59 pm

Toronto is a growing city…of the declining middle class, working poor and people wanting to leave.

Vancouver is the number one city…for skid rows and a fentanyl crisis.

Canada’s glory days are gone.

#18 DON on 01.15.23 at 4:01 pm

#2 Flop… on 01.15.23 at 3:05 pm
Join me on my Vancouver real estate podcast this afternoon, where I discuss the following topics.

When the exact date of the bottom of the correction in Vancouver will be.

Why Vancouver will always be behind Burnaby in alphabetical order on real estate listings.

What city I think Uncle Crowdie and Uncle Ponzie should choose to buy a duplex together in, so they can shout through the common wall at each other at all hours of the night…

M48BC

*********
Good one! LMAO.

#19 James on 01.15.23 at 4:07 pm

I’ve seen that house. Notice that it is barely fifteen feet to the east of a 9 storey apartment building. Blocks all the western exposure, guaranteeing little light and warmth in the backyard.

Perhaps about $1.3 million would be the tops the market will offer there.

#20 Jason on 01.15.23 at 4:08 pm

These actually seem quite reasonable as far as restrictions go – just a little too late. There isn’t really much of a discount if any for riskier types of mortgages (shorter term or variable) at the moment so this won’t have any impact right now, but probably will in the future once rates moderate a bit.

Limiting the amount of “risky” loans a lender can have on the books is also probably a good idea.

My best guess at the moment is that home prices will find a bottom this summer, but there won’t be much of an increase from there for years. Sideways for a decade is not out of the question.

#21 Oblio on 01.15.23 at 4:10 pm

“The OSFI is at least eight years, probably more, to late.”?

Their purpose is to protect banks and banks have done just fine over the past eight years. Now is the correct time to protect banks from themselves -raising reserve requirements and lowering loan eligibility. These timely moves might even save CDIC.

#22 Quintilian on 01.15.23 at 4:10 pm

Free printed money, distributed to households, replaced government deficit spending. Done deliberately because it became fashionable to sleigh government deficits, and shut up the Conservatives.

The stimulus had to come from somewhere. And it came from consumers who spent and spent, and inflation remained in stealth mode because asset inflation does not register with CPI.

But the asset inflation ie, the housing bubble and etc provided a feed back loop and the wealth effect kept on fueling the bubble.

Central Bankers and politicians, thought, and hoped that a Black Swan event would eventually show up, and bring things back into some resemblance of sustainable equilibrium.

Unfortunately, Covid PUMPED the bubbles rather than puncturing them.

Tick Tock Tick Tock

#23 Linda on 01.15.23 at 4:11 pm

Kitty is cute, though looks a bit freaked out. Huge eyes!

I thought loan-to-income & debt-to-income restrictions were automatic. It may have been years since we had a mortgage, but I clearly recall how we had to argue that the bank include my income when determining whether we’d be approved for a mortgage in the first place. Yes indeed, in the liberated 1980’s a woman’s income was often discounted or not automatically included in household income – because she ‘might’ get pregnant & end up staying at home. Regardless of which, the fact remained that my partner & I were subject to loan-to-income & debt-to-income formulas. So when did this stop being a thing? Did banks & mortgage lenders suddenly decide it wasn’t worth implementing any longer? Hence my comment a couple days ago when I said those loaning the money ‘enabled’ folks to take on more debt than they should have. I still put the onus of responsibility on those seeking the loan(s), but can’t deny the lenders should have enforced their own regulations instead of approving loans that exceeded suggested ratios.

#24 Bob in Hamilton on 01.15.23 at 4:22 pm

It’s quite clear this blog has reached a new low…

..a cat picture, indeed!

That’s it, we’ve gone over the cliff.

#25 Jilly on 01.15.23 at 4:24 pm

I was in mortgage lending in the early nineties. Mtg, taxes and heating could not exceed 32% and total debt servicing could not exceed 40% of gross income. Everything was verified! What on earth happened. Showing my age I know

#26 American House Buyer on 01.15.23 at 4:27 pm

Change is good Donkey
Hook yourself up to broadband or starlink and find a quiet corner of North America to call home.
https://fb.watch/i49YQbkXZk/

#27 Neo on 01.15.23 at 4:28 pm

The PNE in Vancouver was once used as an internment for Japanese Canadians during WW2. Perhaps it could be used as a homeless camp for Realtors® and used house speculators.

Bad idea. I don’t want to one penny of my tax dollars going to help these people.

#28 Scott in Gibsons on 01.15.23 at 4:45 pm

Its possible that OSFI is putting these new limits in place so that, when interest rates fall again, borrowers will be prevented from igniting the next RE bubble. Existing mortgage rates provide some cover for this move. Just speculating.

#29 Alberta Ed on 01.15.23 at 4:47 pm

Royal LePage thinks everything’s just rosy according to a story in yesterday’s FP, which apparently ran the Phil Soper opinion piece without doing any fact checking.

#30 Greta Fool on 01.15.23 at 4:50 pm

The poster child for excessive EVs is the GMC Hummer EV, a monster truck with a monstrous 9,063 lb (4,110 kg) curb weight. The vehicle is still powerful enough to hurl itself to 60 mph in three seconds. Appropriately, that feature is called “WTF mode.”

Its gross vehicle weight rating is a staggering 10,550 lbs. The battery pack alone weighs over 2,900 lbs—about the weight of a Honda Civic. The Ford F-150 Lightning is between 2,000 and 3,000 lbs heavier than the non-electric version.

#31 It's Getting Real Now on 01.15.23 at 4:55 pm

I saw a For Sale sign for a house on Arbutus Street in Vancouver recently: “Price Reduced by $500,000”.

#32 Victor Llearna on 01.15.23 at 4:56 pm

In just 1 year the housing markets have gone from bidding wars to fire sales. Seems that more sheep that wont be able to afford to renew their mortages will be adding to the firesales in the coming months

#33 chalkie on 01.15.23 at 5:09 pm

We have reached an era where sales prices are no longer determined by listing prices, you have seen a lot baby, but I hate to tell you, there is more sorrow and tears to follow.

Consider the direct estimate of the semi-elasticity is statistically and economically significant, although somewhat lower than the semi-elasticity implied by the responses to monetary shocks of the acceptable new Millennials and Generation Z’s way of thinking, its outside for us baby boomers in many ways of trying to teach our grandkids.

There will be a short sales window this year for what is known as the spring market, for any seller who is not in the market when the window opens and the wind blows through, will be out of luck for their best buck, this season Is going to be short and sweet.

With the coming acceptance of the much lower real estate home prices and the higher interest rates, it will take another eight months or so for this to sink in.
Once the banks begin to fight for what mortgage pieces of the market, they will begin to accept a little less profit, but first we must add at least two more interest hikes in Canada before the settling of the dust, most likely those hikes will be back-to-back.

Quote of the day: Us Grandfathers give our offspring, not only wisdom and encouragement, and a goal to inspire you, but we can’t force the learning from experience to sink in, that part is up to you.

#34 Oblio on 01.15.23 at 5:26 pm

On Feb 1the OSFI will raise the Big Six’s rainy-day-fund requirement to 3% with an upper limit rising from 2,5% to 4% (…and can make changes as circumstances warrant).

This is force feeding the Special Rates on GIC’s (i.e. 4.6% on a 24 month redeemable).
Time is on this buyer’s side, and all I need is a bit of patience.

#35 Sail Away on 01.15.23 at 5:31 pm

Be careful attributing value to stuff. A house is just a house, nothing more, and land value is an emotional construct.

For actual RE value, acquire property abutting waterways or protected parkland with legal access and water. Tangibles.

#36 Linda on 01.15.23 at 5:33 pm

#25 ‘Jilly’ – exactly! In fact, I did a bit of Internet searching & based on the stuff that popped up, apparently lenders are still requiring ratios remain under a maximum limit prior to loan approval. From the sounds of things, lenders wanted ratios to be no more than 30% with an upper limit not greater than 36%.

Now, I have read of situations where loans were approved because the information was manipulated or falsified outright to permit the loan to proceed. Things like not verifying actual earned income were mentioned as well as not including some of the debt applicants had mentioned on the application so as to permit loan approval to occur. From the sounds of it, some lenders would pay staff bonuses if they were able to process/approve more than the usual number of loan applications. Horse, barn, OSFI.

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.15.23 at 5:37 pm

@#2 Floppie
“What city I think Uncle Crowdie and Uncle Ponzie should choose to buy a duplex together in, so they can shout through the common wall at each other at all hours of the night…’
+++
Does it have to be a city?
Spuzzum is perfect for the Bickersons.
It’s just beyond Hope.

#38 AACI Homedog on 01.15.23 at 5:38 pm

CMHC may have as much skin in the game as the banks, putting some of the risk to us taxpayers…

#39 Yukon Elvis on 01.15.23 at 5:41 pm

#19 James on 01.15.23 at 4:07 pm

I’ve seen that house. Notice that it is barely fifteen feet to the east of a 9 storey apartment building. Blocks all the western exposure, guaranteeing little light and warmth in the backyard.
++++++++++++++
Hey you could watch your neighbour’s tv and save a bundle. Try and look at the upside.

#40 American House Buyer on 01.15.23 at 5:58 pm

Why we think condos are a complete waste of money.
https://www.mapleridgenews.com/news/vancouver-woman-ordered-to-pay-over-500k-for-apartment-fire-started-by-floor-lamp/

#41 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.15.23 at 5:59 pm

@#27 Neo
“The PNE in Vancouver was once used as an internment for Japanese Canadians during WW2. Perhaps it could be used as a homeless camp for Realtors® and used house speculators.”
+++

It would never fit them all.
D’Arcy Island would be a good start.

#42 Rogerhomeinspector on 01.15.23 at 6:03 pm

Just an average Joe’s thoughts on this, but I wonder how much of this action correlates to falling home values and the suspected duration of these decreases.

For the last 20 years, much debt was manageable because families essentially had a third income – their home. Now with that gone or the cost of borrowing from your home increasing significantly, there’s nowhere to refinance or borrow from at a reasonable cost. Add in the rapidly increasing costs all around us and I feel a lot of families are or will soon be pinched hard.

I feel the changes will have two effects. For new buyers, they’re limited in their borrowing and this will further moderate prices. Second, and what I feel is most interesting, is people who currently own will likely be stuck where they are for a good period of time. All things being equal, with higher rates and stricter lending policy how many people would be able to afford their current home again, let alone move up? Less mobility equals fewer sales.

#43 DER on 01.15.23 at 6:04 pm

No question that the years of amended CMHC and bank regulations/competition has made making mortgage financing easier and cheaper than not that long ago. This easy financing has added greatly to inflation of RE values.

I recall we bought our first home in Duncan an Vancouver Island in 1972. At the time because the house was not on a sewer system RBC could not place a mortgage on it . So we had to get a private first mortgage, which the RBC manager was kind enough to arrange with one of his clients, at 12.5 %.

Here is how the financing went: Purchase price $23,800. down payment of $2800, private first mortgage $16,000, BC second mortgage $2500. and vendor takeback 3rd mortgage of 2500. I remember being so broke that when I went to lawyer’s office to sign I had to really scramble to find the $300 in closing costs!

I predict in the next couple of years we will see more interesting financing start to happen including vendor take-backs.

#44 Alois on 01.15.23 at 6:05 pm

Many on this blog agree that RE market was overheated…and I concur.

The problem is the fallout will impact many, ….and the social/societal cost will be epic ….and few if any will escape the consequences.

#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.15.23 at 6:07 pm

#30 Greta Fool on 01.15.23 at 4:50 pm
The poster child for excessive EVs is the GMC Hummer EV, a monster truck with a monstrous 9,063 lb (4,110 kg) curb weight. The vehicle is still powerful enough to hurl itself to 60 mph in three seconds. Appropriately, that feature is called “WTF mode.”

Its gross vehicle weight rating is a staggering 10,550 lbs. The battery pack alone weighs over 2,900 lbs—about the weight of a Honda Civic. The Ford F-150 Lightning is between 2,000 and 3,000 lbs heavier than the non-electric version.
—————
Yeah,
Apparently, they fail every crash tests.
Ukraine is in dire need of tanks.
Send them these monsters, instead.

#46 Comrade on 01.15.23 at 6:08 pm

I am being garroted. My other half thinks now it’s the best time to buy and we missed many great opportunities. Nevermind we have great savings and really cheap rent. Kids will need a bit bigger place as they are getting older but not pankc.The realtor sings the same tune January and February are the months to get deals as the rates will pause and than start going down in the 2nd half of the year.
I don’t understand obsession with real estate and put everything on the lime at times like these. Anyways!

#47 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.15.23 at 6:11 pm

#18 DON on 01.15.23 at 4:01 pm
#2 Flop… on 01.15.23 at 3:05 pm
Join me on my Vancouver real estate podcast this afternoon, where I discuss the following topics.

When the exact date of the bottom of the correction in Vancouver will be.

Why Vancouver will always be behind Burnaby in alphabetical order on real estate listings.

What city I think Uncle Crowdie and Uncle Ponzie should choose to buy a duplex together in, so they can shout through the common wall at each other at all hours of the night…

M48BC

*********
Good one! LMAO.
————-
Flopinsky,
FURZ used to be your bested buddy here.
After Boom left.
What happened?

#48 Tom on 01.15.23 at 6:12 pm

Oh that house in the picture is only 4 million! What a steal! I’m sure a lot of us hard working Canadians can afford it. Right Garth?

#49 The real Kip (Ret) on 01.15.23 at 6:14 pm

So the OSFI will try and close the barn door after all the horses ran away. OSFI like the BoC is hopelessly behind the curve and now scrambling to rectify the problem THEY have created. Oh well, reap what you sow.

#50 Dave on 01.15.23 at 6:17 pm

Re Grandview

Sure prices are cheap in a distant suburb in of a small city in Spain. That’s like comparing housing in Red Deer. Have a look at Madrid or Barcelona and then you will see something entirely different.

#51 Bezengy on 01.15.23 at 6:21 pm

#17 Anthony Berman on 01.15.23 at 3:59 pm
Toronto is a growing city…of the declining middle class, working poor and people wanting to leave.

Vancouver is the number one city…for skid rows and a fentanyl crisis.

Canada’s glory days are gone.

——————

Two down, 8000 to go. I was in Athabasca last night. Seems like a nice little piece of heaven if you like the outdoors and cheap living. Population 2800 and has a nice rec center and even a university. $200 k and you’re “in like Flynn” I could make it work.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24700413/4817-42-street-athabasca-athabasca-town

#52 Jens on 01.15.23 at 6:21 pm

Hasn’t the ship already sailed? Canadians are up to their neck in debt already. Tightening the regulatory screws now will only protect those who haven’t joined this mayhem, while a sizable percentage of those who have joined in the last 2 years will default, putting their lenders at risk of financial fallout.
And what about renewals? Will those same restrictions apply, forcing people who have diligently made their mortgage payments every month for 5 years to sell just because they no longer meet the new income requirements? Wouldn’t that cause a storm of outrage?

#53 DON on 01.15.23 at 6:23 pm

#28 Scott in Gibsons on 01.15.23 at 4:45 pm
Its possible that OSFI is putting these new limits in place so that, when interest rates fall again, borrowers will be prevented from igniting the next RE bubble. Existing mortgage rates provide some cover for this move. Just speculating.

**********
If they care about lenders and not the over leveraged little people. Gotta wonder what they perceive as a threat to their mandate. Lack of global growth on a broad scale tied in with geo political tensions and alliances etc.

#54 Chalkie on 01.15.23 at 6:31 pm

#34 Der
Great story and it brings back many memories, $300 in the lawyers office today, only pays for the coffee during signing.

#55 IHCTD9 on 01.15.23 at 6:51 pm

The OSFI stepped in right on cue. No bank would get bruised when a borrower flakes out in a crazy rising market. Totally different ball game in a declining market. So much changes when houses no longer keep going up. The OSFI clearly understands the new math.

Locally, 50% of the listings are under 600K right now. It’s only just got started. Hit a mortgage calculator and do the math for total COO. Then look at what you’re getting for your money. Then factor in the very real potential for a negative equity scenario. No point reaching if the house sucks and isn’t expected to appreciate bigly.

2023 will be a box-office hit. I’ll be on the porch sipping some overpriced Chilean wine, while watching the mushroom cloud rise a mile high to the west.

#56 Grandv!ew on 01.15.23 at 6:55 pm

With all the talk of prices “crashing” so far perhaps better exercise is to talk about what normal should look like.
East Van (standard build) houses that are older than 20 years on the standard 33X100 lot and without laneway should never cost more than 350K. That is normal and in line with local incomes and local economy. Yes we are talking about early 2000s valuations but that is the math of average yearly local income times 3.5 or 4.
Just imagine how much stronger Canadian economy would be if all the currently wasted money that is locked in houses is instead diverted into biotech, AI, biochemistry, R&D ect. Instead current administration is engaged in executing “human” Quantitive Easing in order to support the bubble. Shameful. They will lose next election because of this and thats shameful as well. It did not have to be like this ! Canada the land where million $ means and buys nothing.

#57 Bankersorta on 01.15.23 at 7:03 pm

Would suggest this is more a political issue than a Bank safety issue on the part of OSFI. If they crank the screws under the guise of protecting the Banks, everyone blames the Banks when they don’t qualify
, not the government. It also helps to protect CMHC from future claims. Banks can manage their own balance sheets and overall risk profile very well. Suggest OFSI just go old school at 32 GDSR and 40 TDSR and require 25% down. It will hit new buyers and some of those who bought in the last 18 months but in reality that is likely only 2% of the overall housing market. Remember almost 60% of homeowners are mortgage free and if the deciding to sell its an even market they are buying into.

#58 PBrasseur on 01.15.23 at 7:05 pm

OSFI is trying to kill the beast not realizing it’s already dead?

Soon enough they’ll probably backtrack, BoC and stupid politicians will try to revive the corpse when they realize our house of card of an economy is tanking with it.

Too late and not even close.

The era of 10x income houses is over and never coming back in our lifetime. Brace yourself, the trip back to 3x won’t be a pleasure cruise!

#59 DON on 01.15.23 at 7:09 pm

#57 Bankersorta on 01.15.23 at 7:

… Remember almost 60% of homeowners are mortgage free and if the deciding to sell its an even market they are buying into.
*******
Are they HELOC free?

#60 Alois on 01.15.23 at 7:14 pm

Mr. P.P. …

…working in a local circus in mind- reading booth
……..a while back.

…. made an ill- advised comment that Moi can’t differentiate between “Assessment value” and “Mill Rates”.

Hey P.P. clown….
….I’m VERY well – versed in the difference..

…to the point several years ago I challenged an assessment…..I won…. that ultimately benefitted over 100+ neighbours and save them collectively 1000’s of $$$.

Cheers..

#61 Grandv!ew on 01.15.23 at 7:15 pm

RE : #50 Dave on 01.15.23 at 6:17 pm
Sure prices are cheap in a distant suburb in of a small city in Spain. That’s like comparing housing in Red Deer. Have a look at Madrid or Barcelona and then you will see something entirely different.
————————————————————-

There you go Dave.
This one is from Valencia. $580K Canadian

https://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-123917-wv3k7z/valencia-valencia-vc

3 Bed 2 Bat 1400sq. Math still works just the same. Two of these for the price of the moderate house in Fraser Valley. 3 or more for the price of the house in Vancouver or anywhere West of the Port Man bridge.

The cost of living in Valencia, Spain is 48% less expensive than in Vancouver.

https://livingcost.org/cost/valencia-es/vancouver

#62 Nonplused on 01.15.23 at 7:29 pm

Well, I suppose now is as good a time as any to close the barn door. I wouldn’t count on the horses coming back on their own though.

But I ask “what is the alternative”? Should the OSFI be condemned for making these changes now? Or only because they didn’t make the changes earlier? Is the argument that because they didn’t do the right thing before, it is too late to start doing the right thing now? Is it “better late than never”, or “better never than late”?

Me thinks that if their objective is to save the banks, then save the banks they shall do. It’s sort of like if the doctor tells you “if you don’t quit drinking you’ll be in the grave in a year”. What should you do? Keep drinking? After all, that’s what got you here, so is it too late now? Is “Why bother” the new rallying call? I guess it logically follows from Gen X’s “What, me worry?”

And now for something completely different:

https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-best-video-on-climate-change-that-you-will-ever-see

#63 Hugh Jass on 01.15.23 at 7:45 pm

Prices rising at 3% per month = silence from bank regulator.

A year later, 2 generations of debt piggies being slow walked to the guillotine = time to tightening lending standards.

Got my popcorn ready, just waiting for the debt piggies to realize 0% rates are not going to save their bacon this time. Rates already at 0% and that demand was pulled forward. Should have sold in February, bet you didn’t though.

#64 Ronaldo on 01.15.23 at 7:46 pm

Would be interesting to know what the assessment is on that house. If it’s anything like this one on our street, it needs to come down another couple mil. Talk about disillusionment. This years assessment 2,937,000 which is still insanely high. Asking $5.9 million.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24908189/3356-stephenson-point-rd-nanaimo-hammond-bay

#65 Nonplused on 01.15.23 at 7:49 pm

And then this just hit my inbox:

“Congress Outperformed S&P 500 in 2022”

https://www.rickackerman.com/free-trades/?vgo_ee=xS4Ws92wW5AfSpKmlbfZPQA3SuMkJhmkGexv49sZvNU%3D

Favorite line:

“…it’s only 98% of them that give the rest a bad name.”

I wonder if we could get a look at where Parliament is invested if we might get some clues as to what drove this whole housing bubble? I know it’s pretty easy to do with municipal politicians. No major infrastructure ever gets approved until the counsel owns all the property along the alignment.

#66 Wrk.dover on 01.15.23 at 7:51 pm

Meanwhile, with the jacked price paid out, and the sale cancelling the capped limit, with the new/re-assessment, my new neighbor is paying 165% more tax than the prior one did!

You go Tiger!

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.15.23 at 7:51 pm

@#47 Puns Pass Ponzie’s pouting prefrontal piehole.
“What happened?”
+++
That was called a joke Ponzie.
Look it up.

#68 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.15.23 at 7:51 pm

In my hood, there have not been any For Sale in the last 3 months.
It’s a waiting game.
Let’s see who will blink first.
Our goal is to sell in 5 years and retire in Europe.
No rush.

#69 Ronaldo on 01.15.23 at 7:54 pm

#4 Dave on 01.15.23 at 3:15 pm
So how big of a correction is metro Vancouver looking at?
——————————————————————–

34.7%

#70 Ronaldo on 01.15.23 at 8:07 pm

Will be interesting to see if the OSFI prevents the banks from offering prime minus mortgages again once the demand for money dries up and they all scramble for market share as they did in the early 2000s and after the GFC. After all, they are in the business of lending money.

#71 I don’t know on 01.15.23 at 8:10 pm

The bottom is not going to “fall out”. At least not in the gta.

In fact, it’s quite likely we currently are in a bottom considering where we are in the current rate hike cycle (near the top).

Also, comparisons to 2001 aren’t valid since everything from our population size, to our economy, to our demographics were quite different back then.

The prices of last February weren’t accurate, and neither are the current prices.

Reality is somewhere in the middle.

The big change moving forward will be that we will be stuck with both high prices and high carrying costs together, worsening affordability.

IDK

#72 To rent oh! on 01.15.23 at 8:37 pm

#17 Anthony Berman on 01.15.23 at 3:59 pm
Toronto is a growing city…of the declining middle class, working poor and people wanting to leave.

Vancouver is the number one city…for skid rows and a fentanyl crisis.

Canada’s glory days are gone.

These words are OH so true!

A friend came back from in Florida last 3 months and said to me “the people here are so grumpy looking”!

And so…I started walking and looking at the actual faces of people around the city of Toronto. Their expressions.

Observation #1: Where are all the young people?
Observation #2: Where is the happiness?
Observation #3: Oh the grumpy faces!

It’s really noticeable.

These are no longer happy places it appears.

#73 American Home Buyer on 01.15.23 at 8:51 pm

We have a pretty good handle on housing markets across North America. The Canadian markets are bloated, overpriced and over rated disasters. We have not spent a dime in Canada for over 20 years and advise our kids and everyone we know to stay away for 20 years. Years of corrections and housing market collapses ahead across Canada.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/170-E-Iroquois-St-Sheldon-IL-60966/118155376_zpid/

#74 Yorkville Renter on 01.15.23 at 8:53 pm

I’m confused … aren’t mortgages always given based on debt:income? Isn’t TDS the metric used already? what is this different measure being considered?

#75 Reality is stark on 01.15.23 at 8:55 pm

I’m sorry but there’s still a lot of equity in there for John Tory to steal and steal he shall.
You can kiss your equity goodbye.
Time to give more of your money to the risk averse.
Let’s see if we can boost productivity with this lovely made in Canada strategy.

#76 the Jaguar on 01.15.23 at 8:56 pm

Re: #52 Jens on 01.15.23 at 6:21 pm
Hasn’t the ship already sailed? Canadians are up to their neck in debt already. Tightening the regulatory screws now will only protect those who haven’t joined this mayhem, while a sizable percentage of those who have joined in the last 2 years will default, putting their lenders at risk of financial fallout.
And what about renewals? Will those same restrictions apply, forcing people who have diligently made their mortgage payments every month for 5 years to sell just because they no longer meet the new income requirements? Wouldn’t that cause a storm of outrage?+++

Yes, sailed. The ‘sizable percentage’ won’t put the Banks at risk. Households with “density of peeps” will circle the wagons. All hands on deck including pay cheques to float the boat.

Renewals don’t usually require requalification, but refinances will and HELOC’s will come under the microscope given downward valuation trajectory. Who knows what that looks like based on previous regulatory caps on revolving lines. And if you think being caught swimming naked when the tide goes out is someone else’s fault and might generate a storm of outrage, guess it will have to begin with those who rolled up to the banquet of house horniness, never consulted interest rate and housing bust history , and were unable to take a ‘prudent’ approach.

OSFI just loves the word ‘prudent’. They’re the “Regulator”, not your Mommie, and they aren’t in the foxhole with you. The Banks will show reasonable empathy as long as it doesn’t jeopardize the annual dividend payments to their valued shareholders.

#77 Work and Tumble on 01.15.23 at 9:07 pm

About two-thirds of Canadian families are in debt. Only 30.2% of Canadian families are debt-free. According to Canadian household debt statistics, 34% of homeowners have mortgage-free properties.Dec 7, 2022

#78 Flop… on 01.15.23 at 9:09 pm

It’s fading as the years go by, but I still have a good little scar on my elbow, from when I attended The Running Of The Bulls Festival in Pamplona, Spain.

When people ask did I get gored by a bull, I matter of factly reply, no, I fell down drunk on a pile of glass.

The moral of the story is clear, even though I was in the city to do a dangerous thing, run with the bulls, it was my own lack of self control that lead to myself being harmed.

People who took on too much debt probably need to be reminded of an ancient Tasmanian proverb.

If you don’t watch what you El Borrow, you could eventually run into El Toro…

M48BC

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.15.23 at 9:22 pm

Here’s a good, well researched article from the BBC about China past Covid.
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/china-covid-optimism-sees-hopes-220014122.html

#80 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.15.23 at 9:33 pm

#61 Grandview
The cost of living in Valencia, Spain is 48% less expensive than in Vancouver.
—————————
You’re sure it’s not 48.2%?
Every person”s mileage is different.
Bull fights are cheaper in Valencia.
That’s for sure.
The only way to really find out.
Is to move there and spend a year.
Most of these surveys are useless.

#81 Butterfly on 01.15.23 at 9:54 pm

So Flop, you are one of my favourite posters. You have been kind enough to answer me in the past as does our awesome host and associates. If you had say around 3 million in assets where would you live? I don’t live far from you in East Van. we are care givers to our elderly parents, hard to leave now, but we will one day for sure, question is where to go? Would appreciate your perspective. Thanks

#82 TurnerNation on 01.15.23 at 9:55 pm

To all those unbalanced AQN.TO holders. You have sinned against this weblog with its lofty ideals. A declining stock — with its declining yield.
Your penance shall include donation of all remaining AQN dividends to your local Humane Society, or 50 pull ups. Whichever comes first.

I spit on your unbalanced portfolio. Putooee! :-)

—————

The Ruskies are our enemy! We sanction them wink wink. Look up.
Our Rulers are roaring with laughter in their Miles High Club.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station
The International Space Station (ISS) is the largest modular space station in low Earth orbit. The project involves five space agencies: NASA (United States), Roscosmos (Russia), JAXA (Japan), ESA (Europe), and CSA (Canada).[8][9] The ownership and use of the space station is established by intergovernmental treaties and agreements

#83 SK on 01.15.23 at 10:07 pm

#62 Nonplused
Don’t be afraid to have children. God is bigger than all the globalist fear mongering shenanigan’s. Green is the new red.

#84 American House Buyer on 01.15.23 at 10:14 pm

Toronto and Vancouver down 500k+ more or less going into 2023 and that is just the start of the downturns happening across Canada. Cross the border into the USA for the best deals in decades. Save your money to buy some toys to go with your new Florida or Arizona homes
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/2018-mclaren-650s-spider-can-am-1?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20230115+Daily+Email_15/January/2023&utm_term=&utm_id=242668&sfmc_id=59691929

#85 TurnerNation on 01.15.23 at 10:15 pm

Cowtown downtown is vacant, its houses cheapen. For the two reasons: The lacklustre weather, the lacklustre people.

— Was it all was a TEST of what’s to come? We are the carbon-based lifeforms our Rulers seek to stamp out??

https://www.blacklocks.ca/lockdowns-met-climate-goal/
Lockdowns Met Climate Goal
The Department of Environment yesterday claimed “real progress” in hitting climate change targets. The most recent data confirmed 2020 emissions fell nine percent mainly due to pandemic lockdowns and travel bans: “This report shows the real progress Canada is making.”


— Why this facination with control over our Minds?

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/blackrock-neurotech-reveals-neuralace-10-000-channel-next-gen-bci-301679826.html
Blackrock Neurotech, a leading brain-computer interface company, revealed its next-generation neural interface, Neuralace™
Whole-brain data capture, seamless connectivity, improved biocompatibility

— This Weblog already covered this bizarre document.

https://horizons.gc.ca/en/2020/02/11/exploring-biodigital-convergence/
Biodigital convergence is opening up strikingly new ways to:
change human beings – our bodies, minds, and behaviours
change or create other organisms

#86 Faron on 01.15.23 at 10:24 pm

#22 T-Rev on 01.14.23 at 1:05 pm
Great post Ryan.

One of the biggest misses I think all investors will look back on is the China rally. Total Chinese market ETFs are up some 50% since Halloween.

I didn’t miss it.

#87 Alois on 01.15.23 at 10:26 pm

#78 Flop… on 01.15.23 at 9:09 pm
It’s fading as the years go by, but I still have a good little scar on my elbow, from when I attended The Running Of The Bulls Festival in Pamplona, Spain.

When people ask did I get gored by a bull, I matter of factly reply, no, I fell down drunk on a pile of glass.

==============

Bullsh*te….

#88 DOWn on 01.16.23 at 12:12 am

QE time, Canadian version.

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.16.23 at 1:27 am

Found this morsel:
Jobs projected to grow in the next decade.
Interesting is, trades don’t make it into the top 30.

https://www.richmond-news.com/highlights/jobs-projected-to-grow-the-most-in-the-next-decade-6344844

#90 under the radar on 01.16.23 at 5:55 am

Bright blue skies in Hollywood Florida. Condo prices on the Ocean are high. New condo’s on the water [email protected] plus. US tax refugees are coming here to be domiciled. Traffic is horrendous in downtown Miami. Food prices roughly the same , except for the exchange rate.

416 real estate bottoms this year as rates peak. Owning in 416 will be for newly minted wealthy, Old money and kids born with silver spoons and those who manage to borrow themselves into oblivion. Nothing really changes.

#91 Ham and Eggs on 01.16.23 at 6:32 am

Russian buying homes in Dubai are setting records. 89,000 so far this year. Boom boom boom, vs Canada’s “foreign buyer ban”. Thailand ( Phuket) and Indonesia ( Bali foremost) are flooded with Russian buyers.

Small wonder the $C has fallen 16% against the Thai Baht in the past few months. Big demand for Baht obviously. I suppose the fact that there’s zero demand by a non existent foreign investor not buying Canadian dollars sees the Lion in freefall. Of course the CBC isn’t covering this.

The Rupiah and Baht are also in high demand by Mainland Chinese. Being banned from the market in Canada has cratered the demand of what was the only buyer of $C since they and now Japan are flying in the opposite direction. Good job Mr Trudeau. Commendable. No foreign direct investment in Canada is likely a subject of celebration in Davos today.

#92 Steven Rowlandson on 01.16.23 at 7:32 am

“Send it ALL to ZERO…….. Everything!!”

If #1 is talking about real estate then I totally agree.
One gigantic crime against humanity deserves another.
In this case it is justice and correction.

Like I’ve said for quite awhile ,”real estate is a place to live and not an investment.”

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.16.23 at 8:27 am

Gee.
Another $2 Billion for a company that doesn’t exist.

Because the Liberal “need to catch up to the Biden Green agenda”

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiEuIijmMz8AhUEP30KHWgFCFAQFnoECAkQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftorontosun.com%2Fopinion%2Fcolumnists%2Flilley-freeland-demands-2b-to-buy-shares-in-a-company-that-doesnt-exist&usg=AOvVaw0D9Kz6hFxaZq4b4xZaah8J

Fiscal insanity.
Brought to you buy the delusional acolytes in the Trudeau govt.

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.16.23 at 9:52 am

More “frankenumbers” from the Real Estate industry?

https://www.reuters.com/business/canadian-home-sales-rise-13-december-2023-01-16/

“December sales rise 1.3 % FROM NOVEMBER!”

Overall sales are DOWN 39% from December of last year( 2021).
Prices are down 12%, on average, from December of last year(2021).

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.16.23 at 10:01 am

@#89 Ponzies Pathetic Predictions
“Found this morsel:
Jobs projected to grow in the next decade.
Interesting is, trades don’t make it into the top 30.”

+++
Morsel?
Did it come with day old Dim Sum?
More like a mouldy piece of toast.

The “list” of must have top 30 jobs?
Dancers?
Coreographers?
Service ( hotel, waiters, etc).
Analysts?
On and on the “top 30 list” goes.
Oh and dont forget to take courses in “empathy, empowerment, and social skills”
Pathetic.
Spare me the tripe Ponzie.
If your power is out. You call an electrician.
Toilet plugged with Ponzie poop? YOU call a plumber.
Need new stairs. You call a carpenter.

Unless you want a dance choreographer to arrange to have an analyst charge you money to tell you to call a real worker.

#96 Dharma Bum on 01.16.23 at 10:20 am

To all the woke tree hugging snowflakes out there, sorry to burst your fantasy bubble:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKIOSnKX96E

Just sayin’…

#97 Oakville Rocks! on 01.16.23 at 10:27 am

@#91 Foreigners cannot buy property in Bali.

Indonesia will allow foreigners to stay longer than 3 months now but the property purchase restrictions are still in affect. To buy property in Bali it has to be owned by an Indonesian.

#98 IsleOfVanMan on 01.16.23 at 10:35 am

#89 Ponz
you’re clueless as usual… and so are the writers of that article. On that list I cam see two trades vocations with solar panel installers and wind turbine technicians. Recommending low paying jobs like restaurants, dog walking, and sports referees. or professional athletes is just not sound advice. For every one athlete that is financially successful there are countless others who failed miserably and put themselves into massive debt. I’ll stick with my service technician trades job that pays rather well and is only going up in in demand. The trend with the green eco push lately is the equipment is changing to meet new government efficiency regulations which results in less reliable equipment that takes more time and skill to maintain, while also having a shorter lifespan.

#99 Old Ron on 01.16.23 at 10:46 am

Fixing a problem they helped to create.

#100 Harvey on 01.16.23 at 10:55 am

DELETED

#101 Lorn on 01.16.23 at 11:20 am

#58 PBrasseur on 01.15.23 at 7:05 pm
OSFI is trying to kill the beast not realizing it’s already dead?

Soon enough they’ll probably backtrack, BoC and stupid politicians will try to revive the corpse when they realize our house of card of an economy is tanking with it.

Too late and not even close.

The era of 10x income houses is over and never coming back in our lifetime. Brace yourself, the trip back to 3x won’t be a pleasure cruise!
……
Sure it is too late for what has already happened…but certainly not for what could occur again in the future if the rules were not tightened up. Good move.

#102 TheDood on 01.16.23 at 11:42 am

#64 Ronaldo on 01.15.23 at 7:46 pm
Would be interesting to know what the assessment is on that house. If it’s anything like this one on our street, it needs to come down another couple mil. Talk about disillusionment. This years assessment 2,937,000 which is still insanely high. Asking $5.9 million.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24908189/3356-stephenson-point-rd-nanaimo-hammond-bay
_________________________________

Completely out to lunch. My offer is 250K, and not a dime more.

#103 Mattl on 01.16.23 at 12:55 pm

#64 Ronaldo on 01.15.23 at 7:46 pm
Would be interesting to know what the assessment is on that house. If it’s anything like this one on our street, it needs to come down another couple mil. Talk about disillusionment. This years assessment 2,937,000 which is still insanely high. Asking $5.9 million.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24908189/3356-stephenson-point-rd-nanaimo-hammond-bay

——————————————————-

That house and property is ridiculous. Those view are insane.

Price seems high, but replacement cost on the house would be 2.5MM today, easy, and that land has to be worth a few million. Seems like it would be a good buy at the assessed value.

#104 Nonplused on 01.16.23 at 12:58 pm

#83 SK on 01.15.23 at 10:07 pm
#62 Nonplused
“Don’t be afraid to have children. God is bigger than all the globalist fear mongering shenanigan’s. Green is the new red.”

Who said I was afraid to have children? But on the other hand I am also not afraid of declining birthrates as we typically see in wealthy and educated nations. I don’t feel the need to have 12.

The population question sort of has some similarities to fossil fuel extraction. It really doesn’t matter what other arguments you bring to the table, there is an ultimate limit in both cases. Infinity does not work in either case. Space is infinite. Nothing else is.

The population will stabilize, either through wealth and intention or through starvation and disease, as it always has. Or through some combination of both, as is currently happening where wealthy, educated nations have declining birth rates voluntarily, whereas the population of the poor continues to explode and much suffering results. But luckily the MSM doesn’t put that on TV. Instead we amuse ourselves with arguments over what sorts of people can compete in women’s sports. If that’s what you are arguing about, you have true luxury.

On the fossil fuel side, we know pretty much exactly* how much there is, where to find it, and how it was formed, despite the protests of the uneducated. It will eventually become scarce (in the economic sense), and thus we will migrate to other energy sources. The question is not “if” but “when”. The solutions will be technical in nature (and in my opinion be nuclear based, but opinions vary).

Of course a trip back to the Olduvia Gorge, is not out of the question. Neither is complete annihilation. But if we can avoid those outcomes, the future is probably one of a stable population powered primarily by nuclear technology.

But I remain opposed to any government action to try and force those results. Governments can always be counted upon to do exactly the wrong thing at precisely the wrong time in the most disastrous way conceivable. The good old market economy with its tried and true A-B testing (or “trial and error” on a small scale) will get us there on its own.

* Hubbert was substantially correct**, he just didn’t have all the information. Total recoverable reserves has continued to increase over his estimates as more information has been gathered through more wells drilled and other exploration, but at a drastically declining rate. Eventually we will find it all, because there are only so many places to look. We are closer to that point than is widely acknowledged. Probably really close.

** “Substantially correct” would be a good term to reintroduce to modern discourse. We spend far too much time arguing about details. I blame the courts, where the defense will try and get whole blocks of testimony thrown out because the witness got the time wrong, or some other such technicality. Was there 500 above ground nuclear explosions, or 600? The actual number according to the Arms Control Association was 528, with over 2,000 including underground tests. But does it matter? 250, 500, or 2,000 are all the same magnitude when it comes to such things, and the exact number has no bearing on the discussion. Either way we’ve got background radiation to this day from the tests.

#105 Alois on 01.16.23 at 1:03 pm

OMG…

BC NDP Gov’t is going to override Local Gov’ts and streamline the building permit process…

……create a one -stop- shop approach

OMG…

OMG…

Nooooooooooo.

#106 John on 01.16.23 at 1:16 pm

It’s going to be really bad. Given the extreme distortion of the market , i.e., the historically low interest rates over the last 15 years, the bursting of the world’s largest real estate bubble (Toronto) will be spectacular, but painful. I expect a 50% drop, adjusted for inflation.
Just a reminder to the banks: trees don’t grow to the sky. We need to rid ourselves of the old view that the banks wouldn’t lend us the money if if wasn’t safe to borrow. They are not interested in saving us from ourselves; they just want our money.

#107 Brian on 01.16.23 at 1:46 pm

Following Ron the Mortgage Guy on Twitter on current foreclosures by private lenders.

https://twitter.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1614987971559657475

#108 Hmm on 01.16.23 at 1:55 pm

@#83 SK on 01.15.23 at 10:07 pm
#62 Nonplused
Don’t be afraid to have children. God is bigger than all the globalist fear mongering shenanigan’s. Green is the new red.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Which god?

#109 Faron on 01.16.23 at 2:01 pm

Happy Martin Luther King jr. day to fellow US of Americans. I’m celebrating by reading his “I Have a Dream” speech including the icky parts that never get quoted.

Luckily, here in Canada, our (okay, right of center men’s) big thot leader says stuff like this:

Nazis; white supremacists. These simply do not exist in Canada. There’s no culture of such things in Canada, political or otherwise.

— Jordan Peterson

#110 Faron on 01.16.23 at 2:08 pm

#96 Dharma Bum on 01.16.23 at 10:20 am
To all the woke tree hugging snowflakes out there, sorry to burst your fantasy bubble:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKIOSnKX96E

Just sayin’…

LOL

Gaping hole in the form of a massive generalization 1 min in. Thereby lost my trust that he may have any integrity and….. I’M OUT.

Pro tip: just ’cause it’s british ivy league and the guy has a fancy-sounding accent, doesn’t meen it’s even half intelligent.

#111 Faron on 01.16.23 at 2:16 pm

#103 Mattl on 01.16.23 at 12:55 pm
#64 Ronaldo on 01.15.23 at 7:46 pm

Those view

Much wow.

I especially like the neoclassical crammed right up against the modern. Really speaks of abject lack if taste. Seems to be a common theme of Stephenson Point Road.

There’s a twitter account called @cocainedecor. I don’t think this place even makes the cut.

#112 Tripp on 01.16.23 at 2:18 pm

“ Originally listed at $4,999,990 this listing is now available with a 1 million dollar price drop to $3,990,990.”

Two meters away from one neighbour, ten meters from another two hundred! Loosing our collective mind…

#113 Luddite on 01.16.23 at 2:19 pm

#27 Neo on 01.15.23 at 4:28 pm
The PNE in Vancouver was once used as an internment for Japanese Canadians during WW2. Perhaps it could be used as a homeless camp for Realtors® and used house speculators.

Bad idea. I don’t want to one penny of my tax dollars going to help these people.

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No one needs to go through that at all.

Just think how financially well off my family would be if my grandparents were not interned in Hastings Park?

Garth would remember well when Mulroney gave reparation cheques and an apology to those who lost everything, regardless if both grandparents were “Canadians”… “Blood money”, my father said.

#114 American House Buyer on 01.16.23 at 2:35 pm

Canadian Real Estate Markets collapsing as investors jump to USA markets for cheaper houses

#115 American Home Buyer on 01.16.23 at 2:46 pm

Sorry not sorry for all the stooges who drank the msm kool aid. Enjoy being poor for 20 years suckers.
https://www.oldhouses.com/34528?mode=print

#116 Victor V on 01.16.23 at 3:09 pm

BREAKING:

Canadian home prices fall another 1.3% in December, now down 17% since peaking in early 2022.

https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1615028704857698304

#117 Ian on 01.16.23 at 3:11 pm

If the average house in Toronto was 251,500 in 2001 when I interest rates were this high. Inflation adjusted in 2023 is $398,467. So we have a long way to fall yet.

#118 Ham and Eggs on 01.16.23 at 11:57 pm

#97 OR

Land is leased long term , up to 80 years plus extensions , call it what you will. Housing schemes and condos are perpetual freehold. Tomato-tomata. Same set up in Thai. There is no charter legal absolute land ownership in Canada either.