Santa

First, the context.

Late last week this pathetic blog told you it looked a lot like Christmas would be followed in 2023 by a soft landing. That’s when the economy gears down a little, price hikes moderate, interest rate increases halt, unemployment swells just a tad, houses don’t get multiple offers and your investment portfolio is happy.

This seems increasingly likely. The steerage section Doom Brigade will be proven once again to be a collection of wussy whiners telling us crazy, wild stuff. Like a debt bomb’s about to go off. Or the US$ will become Charmin soon. Russia will win. Markets will channel 1929. The WEF will take over. A depression is certain. Trump’s coming back.

None of that is remotely possible. And, yes, the landing looks smooth. No smoky hole with a tail fin sticking out. That was 2020.

The latest news is encouraging. Jobs numbers out Friday showed we remain at full employment. Inflation stats are getting better. CBs are starting to go dovish. Real estate lust is abating and sales tumbling (Van down 50%, GTA reports Tuesday at dawn). Bond yields have declined. Bank profits are stable.

It’s tough news to swallow for all the burn-it-down warriors who want to trash the Bank of Canada and blame Trudeau for global inflation. But for your TFSA or retirement fund, what’s happening now is immensely more positive than anybody could have forecast just six weeks ago.

A “Soft Landing” is possible,” says veteran market analyst Ed Pennock. “That would be a first in our book. We have never gone from a record inversion to a Soft Landing.” And he continues…

Here comes Santa Claus. Strong jobs mean that people have money. They are spending it albeit selectively. We think we will have a spotty Xmas. But it will be good. The markets also take heart from the conclusion that Inflation is peaking. True. That Rates are starting to head down. True. Look at the 10-year yield, that is helping the USD lose altitude. Additionally, supply chain issues appear to have substantially diminished. All Good.

It’s what we told you was shaping up a few weeks ago. It’s why equity markets had a great October. Why through November we finished retracing 20% of the 2022 losses. Why it made so much sense to ignore the noise outside, resist the temptation to go to cash or put long-term growth money into a comatose GIC, and to stay invested.

Now the Fed boss has made it crystal that rate hikes in the US will slow, then stop. The ‘terminal rate’ may be a little higher than was expected months ago, but Mr. Market has accepted that easily. The Bank of Canada hikes again Wednesday. At worst it will be 50 bps, then 25 more in the next year. Meanwhile China seems to be backing away from Zero Covid. Iran is trashing its morality police. Hershel Walker is setting up for a defeat in Georgia. Trump is heading for an indictment. The supply chain gets stronger daily. OPEC did nothing to screw up oil prices last week. And never have we had a serious recession when the US jobless rate was scraping the bottom in the 3% range.

So, yeah, this is the context. For financial assets and your portfolio, 2023 looks like a win. For houses, not so much. While equities have been recovering, look at the track record for real estate in the country’s largest market…

Last month, says the digital real estate platform Wahi, 88% of deals in GTA hoods sold below asking. That compares with 86% the month before and just 15% a year ago. So, buyers rock, sellers balk.

And look at the DOM. At 37 days to find a purchaser, this is the longest time on market in three years. The number is up an astonishing 241%. The locations ranking the highest for underbidding: Oakville, followed by Richmond Hill and King. Meanwhile the market as a whole saw a 55% plunge in transactions, with unit sales at the lowest level since the onset of Covid.

Did you hear what National Bank economists are saying?

Conditions today across Canada are as bad, maybe worse, than in the late 1980s and early 90s. That’s when house prices drifted lower by more than 30% over the course of almost two years, then needed more than a decade to recover. People who bought in 1988, for example, didn’t see their investments restored until around 2003. Then, as now, the culprits were unbridled FOMO running headlong into rising interest rates. Wham. Body parts everywhere.

When it takes 335 months for the average family to save a 20% down payment in Toronto, and the qualifying annual income required is $253,934, says the bank, the situation is untenable. Something’s got to break. And, of course, that will be pricing.

What a honker 2023 will be. Choose well.

About the picture: “My niece married into a Golden Retriever breeding family recently,” writes Leslie. “(And yes, the pups are no longer nose-bleed $$$.) This crop is about 10 in total. Few words to describe this blissful scene. Garth, your newbie readers are like pups. Sometimes, they need a rest. New information and particularly that which seems to be contrary to their current diet requires digestion and reflection.”

143 comments ↓

#1 Shawn on 12.05.22 at 2:48 pm

Agreed! Life is good, no life is Grand.

#2 Mel on 12.05.22 at 2:51 pm

“People who bought in 1988, for example, didn’t see their investments restored until around 2003.”

It’s even worse if you factor in inflation. If you paid 500k in 1988 and can’t get 500k again until 2003, you’ve lost a lot of money.

It took 22 years for prices to regain peak values if you factor in inflation.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/it-took-22-years-for-prices-to-recover-from-the-last-toronto-real-estate-crash/

#3 Penny Pincher on 12.05.22 at 2:57 pm

We have not bought in Canada in the past 20 years because if you think crypto is fraud you would not believe the frauds taking place in Canadian real estate.
Buy in USA. Rent in Canada.

#4 GratefulCanadian on 12.05.22 at 2:59 pm

Sadly, economists are challenged in predicting the future…

#5 mitzerboyakaQueencitykidd on 12.05.22 at 2:59 pm

Dogs are Great
beers are good
welcome Santa

#6 Don Guillermo on 12.05.22 at 3:01 pm

Of they’re not responsible for global inflation but they are responsible for higher domestic inflation than needed to be. This government has deliberately hampered resource development (except for Aluminum smelters in Quebec) for the past 7 years which puts downward pressure on CAD/USD$$ and upward pressure on inflation. JMHO.

#7 Dolce Vita on 12.05.22 at 3:02 pm

Wham. Body parts everywhere.
– Garth

You know he’s on a roll and in a good mood when his prose goes

Viscera-Onomatopoeia

You better be right Garth ’cause the last 5 days of Mr. Market are best described as a

pounding.

[ETF/ETN parts flung every which way and direction]

#8 chalkie on 12.05.22 at 3:02 pm

The news of the projected food increase for 2023 from another 7 to 10% has a lot of people worried, with most of the increase to be fruit, vegetables, and meat.

Currently families of 4 are spending approximately $16,000 a year on food, with food cost so high, how on earth does the Feds possibly think they can bring our inflation down to 2%, do not hold your breath waiting, it’s not possible.
The Canadian financial markets are betting on a quarter point rate hike on Dec 7th, while the economist is betting on a half point increase, my bet is on the economist that we will see half a point come Wednesday.

I do believe we are close to the end of rate hikes, between now and spring, I see another ¾ to 1 % increase by early next year, before the rate increases are over.

The Canadian economy’s third quarter growth did top forecasts, but the rising interest rates played havoc on any gains. Our central bank has raised interest rates six times this year, now headed for the 7th.

The Canadian appetite for goods and services must be curved much more by putting the brakes on, or a lot of planning will be in vain.
Any evidence to show that the governments are doing their job to slow the economy will happen when you see next to no growth for several quarters, then and only then will you have any confidence that we have this monster licked.

For a single family income, the family is spending an average of 75 to 80% of our take home pay, on mortgage ownership, something that is beyond incomprehensible. The only option that the governments have is to allow homes to decrease in value without intervention. Governments see their mistakes of setting on their behinds when they should have been listening to the average layman in med 2022.
Getting an apology from any government is like waiting for the heavens to rain cats and dogs, it is not going to happen.
We have now reached the stage of the importance of our needs versus our wants, guess where this will end by the 4th quarter of 2023 or early 2024, it will be a 1981 resemblance all over again.

Credit Card companies, Banks, Oil, Gas, Groceries and not the least Real Estate are among the top six sectors to take advantage of people during the pandemic, the margins in these sectors are off the chart compared to 2019. Ask yourself, what extra expenses did the Real Estate companies have as the home prices increased, yet the realtors walked away with almost double the profits versus 2019 in some cases, it was your home not theirs, is there not something wrong with this picture.

Canadian home prices have much further to fall, my bet is on that they continue to fall right into the end of 2023.
Aggressive interest rates helped cool the real estate housing market since the spring of 2022 and it’s a long way from over-time wise, with those elevated rates that have pushed mortgage payments higher.
One way of looking at it is, Canada’s housing bubble has already burst, set on your wallet for now, it will not hurt you that much to wait, your deal is somewhere out there after many moons rises from now. We have already entered a brutal squeeze for many buyers and more so for the ones who purchased their first home ownership in the winter of 2021/2022.

Quote of the day: Before we start trying to work out which direction the property market is headed, you should be aware that there are markets within markets, keep your money, be ready for whatever happens, cash is king in any downturn, we are not at the bottom of the current one.

#9 Tom from Mississauga on 12.05.22 at 3:02 pm

Probably most of your synopsis is correct, Garth, but persistent wage inflation in the US means more rate hikes than what is priced in. More bleeding for tech and the leveraged, industrials will be fine. Rotation to industrials will continue.

#10 TurnerNation on 12.05.22 at 3:05 pm

Ho Ho Hold the payments.

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that National Bank of Canada no longer allows customers to transfer their existing mortgages after purchasing new properties. The Globe’s Erica Alini writes that clients hoping to move to new homes cannot hold on to low interest rates locked in before the recent surge in borrowing costs. …
In an e-mail to a borrower reviewed by The Globe, National Bank said it had stopped offering rollover mortgages, which it described as a “financing solution” that allowed borrowers to transfer the interest rate, remaining balance and remaining term of an existing mortgage to a new loan. The feature, which is offered by other lenders, is also commonly known as mortgage portability. A recipient of the bank’s notice said the change had forced him and his wife to scuttle plans to buy a bigger home. © 2022 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

——-
—— “”#91 BC Doc on 12.03.22 at 6:33 pm
“Ryan, as an MD, I would say here in Canada on the financial planning side, you and Garth should also factor in the MAiD option. Here in BC, the current rate of MAiD is 5% of all deaths (and climbing). On Vancouver Island, it’s 8%. A significant percentage of your clients will not incur high expenses in what Garth refers to in the “thirsty diaper” stage, as they will select the less costly MAiD option.””

^^ Jaysus. Am I old enough to remember when the doctors worked to preserve life?
T2’s dream is a Pot Shop and MAid shop on every street corner. Snagging the young and the old.
“They’ll stone you just like the said they would; everybody must get stoned”

#11 Dolce Vita on 12.05.22 at 3:05 pm

Sorry Garth but …

Brazil 4 – S. Korea 0

No. That’s not the final score. That’s the score at Half Time.

Each goal, Brazil players huddle and Samba dance. So much fun to watch them.

Italian Commenter saying it’s a bit early for Carnevale but WTF, do you blame them?

The RELENTLESS SWARM mesmerizing to watch.

#12 Classical Liberal Millennial on 12.05.22 at 3:07 pm

Waiting for Turner Nation to appear and tell us while you’re wrong. Entertaining fella, that one.

#13 Cash is King on 12.05.22 at 3:11 pm

THIS IS WHEN CASH BUYERS RULE THE HOUSING MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD
LET OTHERS TAKE THE HUGE LOSSES. BUY CHEAP FOR CASH.

#14 Flop… on 12.05.22 at 3:11 pm

Hey Millmech, one of the properties you showed me the other day sold for 285k.

Slightly better condition than the manufactured house that someone bought for 35k out that way a few months back.

I guess it depends if the Nooksack River decides to jump it’s banks again.

Sometimes the cheaper the human tuna can the better…

M48BC

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2736126/1-9444-WOODBINE-STREET-Chilliwack-BC/

#15 Captain Uppa on 12.05.22 at 3:12 pm

I’ve had to talk a few people off the ledge in regards to their fear of total financial depression. There is nothing that will sway their minds.

I appreciate your blog because even if I don’t agree with everything you say, your financial understanding is obviously far above that of my own; so I come here to learn (and I have!).

#16 Scott in Gibsons on 12.05.22 at 3:15 pm

I think it’s a bit early to call the bear market over Garth. So many data points at multi- decade extremes. Conditions are unstable. Inflation will prevent governments from printing their way out of recession as they have been. No new debt means assets adjust lower. Don’t fight the Fed and don’t repeat Pennock’s hope that “it’s different this time”

#17 PBrasseur on 12.05.22 at 3:15 pm

The problem is not about the landing, soft or not, the problem is that we are not even close to landing…

Malls are full, jobs shortages everywhere, the economy still running high on debt and artificial demand.

Good if you are about to collect some profits from the markets, like I am.

But none of that makes this economy sustainable in the end, it’s just a matter of time before it becomes obvious.

#18 Gerry on 12.05.22 at 3:19 pm

“Conditions today across Canada are as bad, maybe worse, than in the late 1980s and early 90s. That’s when house prices drifted lower by more than 30% over the course of almost two years, then needed more than a decade to recover. People who bought in 1988, for example, didn’t see their investments restored until around 2003. Then, as now, the culprits were unbridled FOMO running headlong into rising interest rates. Wham. Body parts everywhere.” We didn’t have half a million people coming into Canada a year back then. This time it is different.

#19 Doug t on 12.05.22 at 3:21 pm

Dear Santa – JUST BURN IT DOWN

#20 Ian on 12.05.22 at 3:21 pm

Have a great start to the holiday season Garth!

#21 Tom on 12.05.22 at 3:21 pm

DELETED (Anti-Chinese)

#22 Canadarm2 on 12.05.22 at 3:25 pm

It was a tough ride watching the first 9 months but when the portfolio gained more than what I make in a year in just October and November, it’s easy to breathe again.

Ignore the noise. Stay the course. Your future self will thank you for having the nerve to just “set it and forget it”.

M54ON

#23 Will on 12.05.22 at 3:25 pm

-a debt bomb’s about to go off.
-the US$ will become Charmin soon.
-Russia will win.
-Markets will channel 1929.
-The WEF will take over.
-A depression is certain.
-Trump’s coming back.
Wow you almost nailed it- 6 for 7.
Wanna bet ALL of these come true? Accept the #wef takes over. There are to many of us that have studied banking khazar history and are fighting for the rest of you to save humanity. You can thank us later…but I won’t hold my breath. Jeez Garth you do such a good job at real estate advice….

#24 A J on 12.05.22 at 3:27 pm

“The Bank of Canada hikes again Wednesday. At worst it will be 50 bps, then 25 more in the next year. Meanwhile China seems to be backing away from Zero Covid. Iran is trashing its morality police. Hershel Walker is setting up for a defeat in Georgia. Trump is heading for an indictment. The supply chain gets stronger daily. OPEC did nothing to screw up oil prices last week. And never have we had a serious recession when the US jobless rate was scraping the bottom in the 3% range.”

Ah, sounds good to me! Merry Christmas one and all!

#25 Mehling on 12.05.22 at 3:28 pm

“Rising interest rates, falling sales pushing some investors out of Toronto’s condo market”

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/winter-coming-why-investors-moving-090000287.html

Out of crisis comes opportunity….at some point.

#26 an investor on 12.05.22 at 3:50 pm

“Trump is heading for an indictment.” Garth

For what exactly? We know Biden will be impeached for selling access to the White House, but what has Trump done? We know Twitter and the FBI violated Trump’s First Amendment rights by suppressing news of Hunter’s laptop and rigging the 2020 election, but what did Trump do exactly?

#27 Rook on 12.05.22 at 3:53 pm

Big news over on teh Reddit, today.

“Last time Canada’s yield curve inversion was this steep was just before the early 1990s recession”

I just remember that yield curve inversions have successfully predicted 3 of the last 10 recessions, and they happen, if not ‘all the time’, frequently enough to not call it.

I hope housing breaks further, so it looks affordable to someone or a household with around 6-figure earnings, but if it happens in the GTA, I’ll eat my shoe. Something tells me prices won’t be going down much further after this week’s rate hike in the Van/Tor areas, and people will need to find deals elsewhere. But I’ve been wrong before – the last decade going, “Surely, house prices can’t keep going up? Where’s the money coming from?!” so maybe I’ll be wrong again.

#28 Greater Fool Morality Police on 12.05.22 at 3:54 pm

We are moving from Iran to Bay Street to assist Garth in managing the deplorables here.

(Tatiana, don’t worry, we’re on your side this time. If CEF and Sail Away bother you again, we have a quick and efficient Iranian solution for them)

#29 Linda on 12.05.22 at 3:56 pm

Nothing like a pile of cute pups! Here is hoping the 2023 predictions of good fortune prevail.

#30 West New West on 12.05.22 at 3:56 pm

In 2008 I acted like a chicken with my head cut off and sold into the storm. I paid the price. In 2012 or so I started reading this pathetic blog. Im now fully trained to never pee on the rug again. I do not even check our stuff. Todays blog reminds me of what I already know. Keep it up Garth, sometimes ya gotta read it over and over for it to get through…..I know I did.

#31 Qatar 2022 on 12.05.22 at 3:59 pm

OK, something has to be said about this Qatar 2022 theme video with the shoeless kids playing soccer, shooting the ball at the wood goal.

Why are they shoeless?

Why are they shooting at a dried out wood goal frame?

$200 BILLION spent on this World Cup by Qatar.

What greedy dude stole the portion of the budget for the children shoes and playground equipment?

If not for all the children, at least for the two poor shoeless children with no proper place to play football in Qatar.

#32 Paddy on 12.05.22 at 4:06 pm

I have a work colleague who bailed on his investments earlier this year, when the market took a dip. I told him to ignore it and ride it out. It’ll come back, it’s a correction, they’re necessary to weed out the garbage. Stay invested and you’ll be rewarded. He didn’t listen of course. But mainly cause his FA told him to. I said he should look for a new advisor.It was low risk too. People are weird.

#33 physicist on 12.05.22 at 4:07 pm

What would happen if inflation stayed at ~5% despite all the rate hikes….would they raise more or just “adjust” their target…..asking for a friend.

#34 Diet Vocal on 12.05.22 at 4:15 pm

#34 Dolce Vita
#3 Felix

There you go again, writing eloquently about today’s topic or sharing thoughts on topic.

My bad. That wasn’t you.

You dropped in on a Economic, Real Estate, Money … Blog and thought it was about CATS.

It isn’t. Find a Cat Blog and go there.

—————

This is not like you Old Active.

Dogs are forced down our throat here. Diversity of animals minimal and rare.

Consider we just lived through 2 years of our government’s violation of our rights, to which many reacted with purchasing a few things like a new laptop, mouse and a dog. Yeah, most dog owners treat dogs like a thing.

This property purchased by these animal lovers subject non-pet owning citizens to more sidewalk poop than ever, more unscooped poop than ever, more barking and more dog walkers in parks than ever with 6 or 7 animals they can’t handle. There is a lot to dislike about these self proclaimed better-than-others animal lovers.

And just like vegetarians get resistance, so do these self-proclaimed dog lovers. What’s unfortunate is that this aggravation and dislike overflows to the innocent animals.

But you know what, let’s take the animals out of it. Let us focus on the humans.

What do you think about humans who dress their pets?

#35 Terry on 12.05.22 at 4:20 pm

By crook, corruption, lying cheating & stealing is the only way we keep our financial systems and economies going. Because if it fails or collapses then we all lose! Our savings, investments, asset’s, pensions etc…. will ALL BE GONE. Stay invested and always buy more. Your financial health depends on it. There is no fixing this anymore. Just keep kicking the can down the road until we can’t.

#36 I CAN'T STAND SOCCER - TURN IT OFF! on 12.05.22 at 4:30 pm

Thank dog for this blog, it provides relief from the stupidest game on the planet. Every time I turn on the tv there’s two boring teams who can barely score a goal and a stadium filled with wannabee real estate agents who have no lives. And idiot commentators making it sound like this fake sport is worth watching.

Ugghhh. Gimme a hockey game, PLEASE!!!

#37 Quintilian on 12.05.22 at 4:40 pm

The supply chain gets stronger daily.

Too much is made of the supply chain convenient argument.

Although a contributor, it’s not the supply chain that’s causing inflation.

Asset prices and the wealth effect that flows from it is a much bigger contributor, as well as so many of the lazy curmudgeons who have retired putting upward pressure on wages.

And those factors will remain in place until the CB’s break something.

We will know when that has taken place, when Dave and IDK stop posting.

#38 WTF on 12.05.22 at 4:51 pm

# 26 ” but what did Trump do exactly?”

—————————————————————–
Classic Dunning Kruger. I dunno, few little things, maybe u missed it, while you apparently were picking lint out of your navel. Give it up loser, he is a certifiable menace to civilization, A cancer. Enjoy the perp walk.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61084161

#39 jess on 12.05.22 at 4:53 pm

The government-owned British Business Bank, for example, describes ESG as being a “collective term for a business’s impact on the environment and society as well as how robust and transparent its governance is in terms of company leadership, executive pay, audits, internal controls, and shareholder rights.”

greenwashing, a term environmental campaign group Greenpeace UK has called a “PR tactic” used “to make a company or product appear environmentally friendly without meaningfully reducing its environmental impact.”

The three pillars of ESG are:

Environmental – this has to do with an organisation’s impact on the planet.
Social – this has to do with the impact an organisation has on people, including staff and customers and the community.
Governance – this has to do with how an organisation is governed. Is it governed transparently?

The controversies that led to a rise in ESG.
https://www.nossadata.com/blog/8-controversies-that-led-to-the-rise-of-esg

Florida is yanking $2 billion worth of state assets managed by BlackRock, escalating the GOP standoff with the world’s largest money manager over its ESG investment policies.

The state treasury will freeze about $1.43 billion worth of long-term securities and remove BlackRock as the manager of about $600 million worth of short-term overnight investments with the goal of giving that business to other money managers by the beginning of 2023, Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis said in a statement Thursday.
https://www.flgov.com/2022/08/23/governor-ron-desantis-eliminates-esg-considerations-from-state-pension-investments/

Oil spills are among the number of ESG controversies that can have financial consequences for companies long after the cleanup.

A ‘Controversial’ Way to Weed Out ESG Offenders – Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com › news › articles › a-contr…
Jul 27, 2022 — Toxic emissions. Wastewater discharge leaks. Child labor. Indigenous rights violations. Bribery. Fraud.

More from. Bloomberg green · Electric …
lectric-vehicle maker Tesla was recently removed from the S&P 500′s ESG Index.

#40 Victor Llearna on 12.05.22 at 5:00 pm

Makes no sense why so many sheep stay in hellhole toronto. Not only is it a horrible place to live, but its unaffordable for most, average income in toronto doesn’t come close to 250k.
SHeep need to head for greener pastures

“When it takes 335 months for the average family to save a 20% down payment in Toronto, and the qualifying annual income required is $253,934, says the bank, the situation is untenable.”

#41 Yukon Elvis on 12.05.22 at 5:02 pm

#6 Don Guillermo on 12.05.22 at 3:01 pm
Of they’re not responsible for global inflation but they are responsible for higher domestic inflation than needed to be. This government has deliberately hampered resource development (except for Aluminum smelters in Quebec) for the past 7 years which puts downward pressure on CAD/USD$$ and upward pressure on inflation. JMHO.
+++++++++
Good point.

#42 willworkforpickles on 12.05.22 at 5:06 pm

BANNED (Abusive, and a slow learner)

#43 Nonplused on 12.05.22 at 5:06 pm

Long time readers have always known that this blog is an “infomercial” of sorts, and there is nothing wrong with that. There is nothing wrong, if you have a good or important product, with informing the public about why that product is necessary (what the problem is) and what options are available (what you can do about it). So yes, a blog about finances and the housing market is very useful. Canadians are surprisingly illiterate when it comes to financial maters. Mainstream advice on prudent financial management is a good thing, even if it comes with a disclaimer at the bottom that says “Raymond James”. Sort of like a medical column saying “consult your doctor” at the bottom.

Advertisements are not evil when they inform the public of things they may not otherwise have already been aware.

But political ads, slander, propaganda, false or unverified information, speculation, or advertising meant to manipulate public opinion are another matter, and usually receive harsh criticism in the comments. That’s why the CBC has their comments section turned off for most articles. That’s also why nearly all media outlets are aghast at Musk’s plan to enhance the “context” feature of the new Twitter. CNN is well aware that this feature means they will be fact checked on every single story they post. They aren’t going to survive that. Their business model depends on narrative, not facts.

#44 Dolce Vita on 12.05.22 at 5:07 pm

Overall Garth I’m OK with what your preaching.

I mean I worry about the

1. Wage/Inflation spiral, a little – will make Inflation sticky on the way down,

2. People to make stuff, deliver services shortage – still the numbers are not large enough relative to the workforce for worry – will probably feed into #1 above.

3. Oil I do worry about – +30% forecast for next year then articles by people in the industry saying probably see increases by April.

Probably good for 1st Qtr 2023 then we’ll see what oil will do to Inflation. I do not believe it will not happen all at once (unless Russia goes Crazy Ivan with its oil).

Mr. Market turbulence now due to the US Fed, again. They are all scared of Lord of the World Powell – and they should be.

Dec 15 is when Santa ought to begin delivering Mr. Market gifts, fingers crossed

——————

And ya, 10 yrs of misery for the FOMO RE crowd. Hopefully not enough of them to matter to the economy as a whole.

#45 Joseph R on 12.05.22 at 5:07 pm

“What a honker 2023 will be. Choose well.”

It will be a bad year for the future: Crypto, Twitter, and Meta going down, if not dead.

Good. Replace the ramblings of lunatics with music. Much better for ones soul.

US Tariff moratorium on China based video cards and motherboard gets lifted for the new year. Get ready to pay 25% more for your PC components.

#46 jess on 12.05.22 at 5:10 pm

Texas and Arizona

8 months project barbell
operating out of Toronto
increased bail and jail times
border crossing cbsa more boots checking smuggling and trafficking
260 charges laid

…”Police initially focused on two individuals and in executing a series of search warrants in east Toronto seized the firearms, which included three “AK-type” rifles, one of them loaded with 61 rounds of ammunition, five “AR 15-type” rifles, 51 semi-automatic handguns, as well as 31 magazines, 132 rounds of ammunition and two stolen luxury vehicles, which were fraudulently registered.

That 57 of the 58 traceable guns originated from the U.S. — primarily Arizona and Texas — speaks to “our border integrity, and the flow of illegal crime guns coming up from the United States,” said Watts.

“While we are here to show the public the results of a successful investigation, this is not a good news story,” said Ramer. “We should all be disturbed by a gun seizure of this magnitude.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2022/12/05/toronto-police-to-provide-update-on-firearm-trafficking-investigation-that-led-to-arrests-gun-seizures.html

#47 yorkville renter on 12.05.22 at 5:13 pm

#26 – willfully blind, I assume?

the two easiest things to indict DJT:
– tax fraud
– stole government property

also, there’s the incitement and the phone calls to “find votes”… but those will be harder to convict on. The other two are straight up empty-netters

#48 Paul on 12.05.22 at 5:21 pm

“Oakville, followed by Richmond Hill and King.”
Seems odd… ‘Kingston’?

#49 Ken R on 12.05.22 at 5:26 pm

What is all the whining about food prices? Media report after media report about the escalating food prices.
Fifty years ago families fed eight or ten kids, slim pickings a few days before dad’s payday mind you, but we all survived just fine. We just didn’t enjoy fresh strawberries in January and processed food every day.

#50 an investor on 12.05.22 at 5:28 pm

#47 and #38

Chinese bots.
Neither of you punks would project the same attitude face-to-face …

“loser”? … lol

Why are leftists so abusive Garth? And why are there so many progressives on this blog?

Trump Won … article 10-13 USC coming soon … just like Brazil.

#51 AM in MN on 12.05.22 at 5:32 pm

Had a great weekend in YVR. Hard to get a table at a decent restaurant though. If you’re looking to drop $100/head+ on a feed, book early.

My old mother is one of the few people I know who watches CBC News. She questioned why the headlines were all about food bank lines when the restaurant was so packed. I explained to her that it’s called a “narrative”. CBC got out of the news business decades ago.

I don’t see any bright spots for the C$ though. At an energy conf where some investment guy explained that many Canadian pension funds are now investing in the US. Nothing is getting permitted in Canada right now. Another investor mention a portfolio company losing a top engineer for double salary in the US, more to follow I’m sure.

Some gas drillers are signing deals to send gas from northern BC/AB to Louisiana to make LNG. This adds about 20% to the total efficiency loss, hope that warms the hearts of the net-zero crowd.

Biden’s minions just quietly approved construction of another oil export terminal on the Gulf Coast. 2M b/d, with 5M barrels of storage.

Hope you’re donating to the food bank…

#52 Apocalypse NOW on 12.05.22 at 5:35 pm

Santa will be in his bunker by December 24.

You should be too.

Probability of nuclear war is 84% by Christmas, and 96% by February 24.

PREPARE

#53 crossbordershopper on 12.05.22 at 5:37 pm

this entire narrative is that the little people go to work all there life for effectively nothing. with real higher inflation that we have, lower relative wages, and debt the only thing difference than in the 80’s. I can make a case that we are all poorer now than the last generation. Many of us are very poor in real terms, and not as happy and content. Life was simpler and easier in the mid 80s.
People want us to work till 70 or something, I see that all the time now, no way, not for me, if you want to work go ahead. I knew Canada was a scam in grade 13. When the teacher was waiting for my assignment, I said I didnt bother doing it because I already passed the course without it. He said how about University admission? I said, ya the socialist university took my cheque I responded. He then went on about pride of work and accomplishment, I said to who or what. He said yourself your family for society. I said trust me, my dad is an immigrant he doesnt know the real bs that Canada is, and that I personally dont care what letters or numbers you put on my assignment, because its inconsequential. I still remember his look from 40 years ago that he gave me, and yup my only daughter has the same opinion. You want me to work and save money like a squirrel for who, my daughter is only worried when the Internet goes out. You think she cares about stocks, as long as the net works and the refrigerator is stocked she is good. honestly.
I am not going to probably have any grand children, no one is going to visit my grave after I am gone, legacy for who, for what. Working like a crazy man for the tax department, for my legacy, You think if Putin invades Canada I would defend Canada? I bet 20 million Canadians will be at Pearson in the morning ready to fly anywhere. The others will stay as long as the net works and they have heat and food.
We bumbs have been here for a long time. We arent going anywhere, where everyone else runs around thinking they are getting somewhere. Either your a skinny mouse who hasnt figured out he is spinning in the wheel for nothing or the fat hampster who moves slower and ends up exactly at the same place. Canada=nowhere.

#54 tooshort on 12.05.22 at 5:40 pm

One thing our host fails to mention is that inflation will not be coming down if we get the soft landing. Fed boss Powell said we’ll be going through some pain in order to get inflation down. That’s as close as you can get a fed chairman to call a recession.

Inflation is already receding. More to come. – Garth

#55 ElGatoNeroYVR on 12.05.22 at 5:42 pm

#46 jess on 12.05.22 at 5:10 pm
I thought these guns were banned in Canada,. You mean that alleged criminals do not follow the laws banning these sort of guns ownership and the ban does nothing to prevent illegal import ? Who would’ve thought ?

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.22 at 5:50 pm

@#42 Jarred Pickle

Sad.
So sad.

#57 Bezengy on 12.05.22 at 5:50 pm

What a honker 2023 will be……

——

I think Trudeau and the CB have been quite clear in what they were trying to accomplish throughout the pandemic, which is to support the economy, build back better, etc. My issue is the budget, forecast to have a deficit of 55b. So, what if revenue comes in short?, because we can all see that Trudeau is spending like it’s a ‘fait accompli’ and 400b of revenue is a done deal. I simply don’t believe it will happen.

https://hillnotes.ca/2022/04/19/the-2022-federal-budget-at-a-glance/

#58 Hmm on 12.05.22 at 5:51 pm

@#50 an investor on 12.05.22 at 5:28 pm
#47 and #38

Chinese bots.
Neither of you punks would project the same attitude face-to-face …

“loser”? … lol

Why are leftists so abusive Garth? And why are there so many progressives on this blog?

Trump Won … article 10-13 USC coming soon … just like Brazil.

++++++++

you sound like the bot here.

#59 HateTiff on 12.05.22 at 5:55 pm

I ain’t scare of the Bank of Canada? No sirree. Bring it on loser Tiff, a millennial of my stature I can handle your rate increases. (Raise middle finger that TiffMan)

#60 Enough with the Partisan Hackery on 12.05.22 at 5:55 pm

Your political digs are obnoxious and has nothing do with the financial advice. What does Herschel Walker’s win or loss tomorrow and Trump’s “indictment” have anything to do with interest rates or real estate in Canada?

#61 jess on 12.05.22 at 6:02 pm

INTERSTICE

…”one of the UK’s biggest construction contractors before it buckled under the pressure of £7bn of debt in January 2018, plunging 3,000 jobs into uncertainty and threatening more than 450 major public-sector projects, including the construction of new hospitals.

Firm accused of providing false and misleading information to Financial Reporting Council
Carillion’s collapse, 4+ years ago

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/01/uk-regulator-issues-complaint-to-kpmg-over-carillion-and-regenersis-audits

KPMG being sued for £1.3bn over Carillion audit – The Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com › business › feb › kpmg-…

Feb 3, 2022 — KPMG is being sued for £1.3bn by government officials liquidating the collapsed contractor Carillion, in an unprecedented legal action against …

Carillion Was a Warning Bell. Who’s Listening? – AuditBoard
https://www.auditboard.com › blog › carillion-was-a-warn…
May 10, 2022 — Carillion plc, the second-largest construction company in the UK, filed for bankruptcy with £7 billion in debt despite receiving an unqualified …

18/05/2022
Tribunal finds KPMG auditors misled their regulator over Carillion and Regenersis audits
https://www.fountaincourt.co.uk/2022/05/tribunal-finds-kpmg-auditors-misled-their-regulator-over-carillion-and-regenersis-audits/

KPMG Fined £14 Million Over Carillion Audit Scandal
https://www.bloomberg.com › news › articles › kpmg-f…

#62 Shawn on 12.05.22 at 6:05 pm

Foodbanks and $100 restaurant meals

#51 AM in MN on 12.05.22 at 5:32 pm
Had a great weekend in YVR. Hard to get a table at a decent restaurant though. If you’re looking to drop $100/head+ on a feed, book early.

My old mother is one of the few people I know who watches CBC News. She questioned why the headlines were all about food bank lines when the restaurant was so packed. I explained to her that it’s called a “narrative”. CBC got out of the news business decades ago.

****************************************
Your mother probably knows that wealth disparity has something to do with packed $100 per meal restaurants existing alongside packed food bank line ups.

I have to say also I was a bit shocked to hear news today that it costs $16,000 a year to feed a family of four. I’m not sure how valid that is.

In my household we have never had to bother counting up what we spend on groceries. That’s not the reality for a lot of Canadians.

33 years ago when I moved to Edmonton I was initially making $43,000. My rent for a one bedroom apartment in a high-rise then was about $375 as I recall. Today, my son at a similar age makes about $50k and pays about $1200 to share a two bedroom apartment with a room-mate. There is absolutely no comparison in the cost of accommodation. It is massively higher today as a percent of income. No wonder people turn to food banks.

#63 In Flat Ion on 12.05.22 at 6:09 pm

#54 tooshort on 12.05.22 at 5:40 pm

One thing our host fails to mention is that inflation will not be coming down if we get the soft landing. Fed boss Powell said we’ll be going through some pain in order to get inflation down. That’s as close as you can get a fed chairman to call a recession.

Inflation is already receding. More to come. – Garth

—–

This is true. Already the forecast for food prices is a 5-7% increase in 2023, down from the 10% range in 2022.

https://globalnews.ca/news/9321958/canada-food-price-report-2023/

Santa? He recommends more frozen produce in 2023.

Worry not though. Fortunately, this inflation will be reported as economic growth.

#64 Penny Henny on 12.05.22 at 6:20 pm

#55 ElGatoNeroYVR on 12.05.22 at 5:42 pm
#46 jess on 12.05.22 at 5:10 pm
I thought these guns were banned in Canada,. You mean that alleged criminals do not follow the laws banning these sort of guns ownership and the ban does nothing to prevent illegal import ? Who would’ve thought ?
////////////

Absolutely Shameful!

#65 kommykim on 12.05.22 at 6:21 pm

RE: #3 Penny Pincher on 12.05.22 at 2:57 pm
We have not bought in Canada in the past 20 years because if you think crypto is fraud you would not believe the frauds taking place in Canadian real estate.

=======================================

LOL. Even if Candian RE was overpriced by 1,000%, crypto is overpriced somewhere between 1,000,000,000% and infinity…

#66 Figmund Sreud on 12.05.22 at 6:25 pm

What a honker 2023 will be.
____________________________

Hmn? So, … we currently have a never experienced before degree of convergence of economic, financial, and debt crises, … plus unprecedented ballooning of deficits, borrowings and leverage in recent times, and one still think we are still ducky ( ducky is good! ) for yet another year? Good to know, …

https://img.ifunny.co/images/cae97fe330cf0c841e7c8d40cc9653c1189c730c481df8df0cecc654f6d7bc10_1.jpg

Seriously, though, … from https://www.iif.com/

Globally, total private- and public-sector debt as a share of GDP rose from 200% in 1999 to 350% in 2021. The ratio is now 420% across advanced economies, and 330% in China. In the United States, it is 420%, which is higher than during the Great Depression and after World War II.

Best,

F.S. – Calgary, Alberta.

#67 Dr V on 12.05.22 at 6:32 pm

37 Q

“….it’s not the supply chain that’s causing inflation.

Asset prices and the wealth effect that flows from it is a much bigger contributor……”
——————————————————

Agree with first point. Supply chain disruption causes
high prices.

Not sure about asset prices. Maybe the wealth effect, but not even sure about that, because….it’s an effect!

We’ve had high asset prices before, but with little inflation.

What we havent had, in quite awhile, is this much money floating around with little if any increased productivity.

#68 Tax Fraud on 12.05.22 at 6:54 pm

If they still can’t find anything after 6 years of the FBI and the entire DOJ (not to mention the openly politically motivated SDNY) trying to find something, anything to pin on Trump, like maybe a billionaire businessman at some point in the last 40 years claimed some questionable tax deductions, then he must be the most honest person in the world.

Of course they will find something to indict him on. There’s not a person on earth who they couldn’t find something on. (Questioning election results is not a crime, just ask the Russian collusion conspiracy theorists.)

The question you should be asking is if you think targeting political opponents this way is a good thing, and also if it won’t make him a martyr.

I notice the people who think ‘the walls are closing in’ are the same people who think Michael Avenatti was the second coming and sure to be perp walking Trump himself.

They might want to check the headlines today.

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.22 at 6:55 pm

Dolce Vita

Mama Mia!
No bambinos!

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-ageing-faster-than-eu-peers-population-drops-below-59-mln-2022-12-05/

#70 Reality Check on 12.05.22 at 6:56 pm

50 an investor
Why are leftists so abusive Garth? And why are there so many progressives on this blog?
————-
The comment section is heavily populated with economic conservatives. That is, people who believe good government is reasonable taxation, small government and staying out of the way of business.

The Republican Party has been hijackered by social conservatives – the nutcases that want to form society to their own extreme religious beliefs, think lizard people set Covid upon us, and believe Trump won the election regardless of the fact that there is no evidence to substantiate that (of the dozens of legal challenges zero have been successful).

As a result many normal, rationale economic conservatives cannot support trump and the nutty trumpet-republicans. They end up voting democrat or just staying home. And with the razor thin margins that characterize US elections only a slight shift in votes will carry the presidency and possibly congress/senate for the dems.

Trump as the Republican nominee for president in 2024 would be the best thing that could happen for the dems. Even Biden would handily beat him.

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.22 at 6:59 pm

David Eby is doing “The Cabinet Shuffle”
Younger and more diverse cabinet.
Quinty may become Finance Minister.
He’d get my vote.
If he raises taxes on overpaid Plummers.
Hopefully, that would finally drive FURZ out of the Province.

#72 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.22 at 7:04 pm

#51 AM in MN on 12.05.22 at 5:32 pm
Had a great weekend in YVR. Hard to get a table at a decent restaurant though. If you’re looking to drop $100/head+ on a feed, book early.

My old mother is one of the few people I know who watches CBC News. She questioned why the headlines were all about food bank lines when the restaurant was so packed. I explained to her that it’s called a “narrative”. CBC got out of the news business decades ago.
——————
Classic”

Let them eat cake”.
You guys Royalty?

#73 canuck on 12.05.22 at 7:08 pm

The one and only soft landing the FED had was in 1994.

I’m going to enjoy you walking this back by Q2.

#74 Kootenay Dave on 12.05.22 at 7:17 pm

Looks like this could be another lower high in the S&P. Does 3,500/3,600 hold? Third wave down is usually the most severe. But I do agree we’re higher by this time next year.

#75 Regjeg on 12.05.22 at 7:20 pm

Rosie says the RE bubble has burst and could deflate by a further 25%.

https://apple.news/AOUm0PwEuRN2gV_iFwoTlVw

#76 Altwaheed Bin Said Bin There andunndat in Calgary on 12.05.22 at 7:29 pm

Didn’t someone on your posts say house price drop of 50% unlikely.

Altweed

#77 L Lawliet on 12.05.22 at 7:40 pm

I know the stock market will tank this month, because YouTube channels The Maverick of Wall St. and Financial Education (Jeremy Lefebvre) say so, but most of all because I’m in it!

#78 Just sayin' on 12.05.22 at 7:51 pm

@Hmm – yesterday’s lol
_____________________________
https://www.westernstandard.news/news/ethics-prof-sees-echoes-of-nazi-germany-in-canada/article_409972b8-73f7-11ed-b5a8-63cccad359d5.html

Yes, we’ll have a great laugh someday

#79 Wrk.dover on 12.05.22 at 7:51 pm

At worst it will be 50 bps, then 25 more in the next year.
_____________________________________________

I hope that means 50 is lowest amount being considered.

We were short changed 25 points on the last round.

I don’t want CAD where the exchange is greater than the amount being exchanged.

#80 Quintilian on 12.05.22 at 7:54 pm

#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.22 at 6:59 pm

David Eby is doing “The Cabinet Shuffle”
Younger and more diverse cabinet.
Quinty may become Finance Minister.
He’d get my vote.
If he raises taxes on overpaid Plummers.
Hopefully, that would finally drive FURZ out of the Province.

Hey Ponz,
Thanks for the vote of confidence, although I am a drama teacher by trade, I now have a very important job, and will have to pass on this great opportunity.

But, as far as raising taxes on overpaid crusty curmudgeon plumbers-consider it done!

#81 TurnerNation on 12.05.22 at 8:14 pm

Canfor Corp. will temporarily reduce Canadian production due to very weak market conditions. The production will be reduced through curtailments at all solid wood facilities in British Columbia and Alberta. This will remove approximately 150 million board feet in December and January. The curtailments will start to be implemented on Dec. 19, 2022, and will range from one to four weeks across its Canadian operations. The company will continue to adjust operating rates to align with market conditions and anticipates that the majority of its B.C. facilities will operate below full capacity in the new year.

“Due to the significant decrease in demand for solid wood products and challenging economic conditions, we are temporarily curtailing production in Canada. We will be working to mitigate the impacts on our employees by providing support and identifying meaningful work during the downtime,” said Don Kayne, president and chief executive officer, Canfor.

#82 Cici on 12.05.22 at 8:24 pm

I doubt it. The Fed is already getting dovish and the bond market is doing the cutting for them.

People with money (especially dirty money) will keep piling into RE, and everyone else will continue to get killed with inflation.

Meanwhile, FTTX scammers are paraded around like heroes (jail time is only for us plebes), the Balenciaga horror story gets completely swept under the rug by the MSM ($ can do whatever unspeakable horrors it wants… even to innoncent children) and apparently Elon Musk is the only hope we have for some semblance of free speech.

Just another day in a world gone mad.

#83 Tony on 12.05.22 at 8:29 pm

Re: #33 physicist on 12.05.22 at 4:07 pm

Jerome Powell would likely raise the Fed funds rate above the core inflation rate. If the core inflation rate stayed constant at 5 percent he did mention they may have to raise the Fed funds rate above the core inflation rate.

#84 Flop… on 12.05.22 at 8:46 pm

Flop Drops.

Someone called me Mr Pink Snow yesterday, must be like the Candyman in the horror movies, call him and he’ll come.

I’ve been trying to stay out of the Pink Snow but sometimes it just falls on you.

Was just looking at today’s sales and then noticed that this flip went horribly wrong in a short amount of time.

The details…

Original ask 1.04

Just sold for 850k

They purchased it for a flat 1 million in May 2022.

People will blame foreigners, money laundering, who knows what else, I’m not sure a 22 year house in Maple Ridge is the place for that, maybe, just maybe someone got in over their head and made a poor financial decision.

The other thing to note, perhaps, it’s great to ooh and ahh over the massive run up in places like Shaughnessy and Point Grey, but this house in the back of suburbia going for as little as 386k in 2015 should help show we collectively lost our way just a smidge.

Might as well finish this post with a Flopperism.

Someone got a decent looking house.

Someone else just burnt 150k plus fees.

There are lessons to be learned in times like these…

M48BC

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2726261/24386-102-AVENUE-Maple-Ridge-BC/

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.22 at 8:51 pm

81 Quintilian on 12.05.22 at 7:54 pm
#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.22 at 6:59 pm

David Eby is doing “The Cabinet Shuffle”
Younger and more diverse cabinet.
Quinty may become Finance Minister.
He’d get my vote.
If he raises taxes on overpaid Plummers.
Hopefully, that would finally drive FURZ out of the Province.

Hey Ponz,
Thanks for the vote of confidence, although I am a drama teacher by trade, I now have a very important job, and will have to pass on this great opportunity.

But, as far as raising taxes on overpaid crusty curmudgeon plumbers-consider it done!
——————.
Drama Teacher.
We need more politicians with classical education and outside of the box thinking.
Unlike the old boring Economists and Lawyers.
You and Chrysta would make a great pair.
Professionally only, of course.

#86 Tony on 12.05.22 at 8:54 pm

Re: #63 Shawn on 12.05.22 at 6:05 pm

I bought 4 townhouses in Edmonton 32 years ago. It took seven years to pay off all the mortgages. Somehow we ended up with Rainbow property management as our first property manager. Me and my brother flew out to Edmonton to find everything rented yet our statements showed one third of all the units were vacant. They took our entire reserve fund after Revenue Canada shut them down for good.

#87 Old gringo on 12.05.22 at 8:55 pm

Just a passing thought, is it at all possible house values or prices are really just the deflation of our CDN?
The house only deteriorates and it just keeps taking more dollars to buy it.
Hmmm

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.22 at 9:18 pm

@#71 Ponzies Plumber Problem

Most of the plumbers I know are very rich and dont “give” a shit.

@ #81 A Quintillian dollars deeper in Debt
“Thanks for the vote of confidence, although I am a drama teacher by trade, ”
+++
Ladies and gentlemen, the Prime Minister is a Blogdog………
One other comment.
Quinty, could you teach Faron to breathe more and hyperventilate less?

6pm News.

BC Assessment ( your property taxes)
Is INCREASING property assessments from 5 to 15%

The socialist govt’s One last kick at the can as the market tanks?

#89 45north on 12.05.22 at 9:23 pm

an investor “Trump is heading for an indictment.” Garth

For what exactly? We know Biden will be impeached for selling access to the White House, but what has Trump done? We know Twitter and the FBI violated Trump’s First Amendment rights by suppressing news of Hunter’s laptop and rigging the 2020 election, but what did Trump do exactly?

Elon Musk clearly if Twitter is doing one team’s bidding before an election, shutting down dissenting voices on a pivotal election, that is the very definition of election interference

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15OYtfuMgik

my post November 16, 2020. The week after the American election:

compared to Hunter Biden’s laptop, Watergate looks like a late library book. The media have betrayed their country.

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.22 at 9:52 pm

Gee whiz.

“A majority of Canadians feel the removal of “Colonial Statues” is an attack on Canadian history….”

Is the politically correct, Woke, Liberalista tide turning?

Who knows, maybe the looming Real estate downward adjustment will wake a few of the plebes up to real issues such as taxes, deficits, and a quintillian other incompetent decisions this Minority coalition govt has shovelled down our throats.
Nothing like losing your home to focus your seething attention.

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.22 at 9:54 pm

Interesting.
I just read up on “social intelligence quotient”.
Somehow a hybrid between “IQ and EQ”.
It’s what the new leaders need to be successful in this “New World”.
I think, Faron and Quinty are good examples of that new
Reality.
It takes moral and intellectual integrity.

#92 Norman Bigbird on 12.05.22 at 9:55 pm

A soft landing is highly unlikely considering all the job losses that are coming from the housing downturn next year and the coming insolvencies.
Did you know that In Canada variable-rate mortgages account for more than half of all loans. In Australia and Sweden, they account for nearly two-thirds.
As of April 30, 2022, a quarter (24.6%) of homeowners in Ontario owned more than one home, the Teranet report said(most of which are condominiums)…
You may be shocked by the number of forced sales that are on the horizon. If government tries to help it will only prolong the misery and possibly reduce bank’s capital reserves as China has just done. The Bank of Canada is backed into a corner with two choices; raise rates more or let inflation rip. Letting inflation rip would be a terrible choice for Canada’s economy and society. Remember seniors eating pet food in the 1980’s. But wait Jag and Justin will step in and do what?

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.22 at 9:56 pm

@#86 Ponzies Political Pairings
“We need more politicians with classical education and outside of the box thinking.
Unlike the old boring Economists and Lawyers.”

+++
Interesting that you didnt include Accountants in that Liberal fantasy.
Unfortunately we all know accountants are needed in the background to help balance the budget.
Alas, they have the personalities of turnips….and no one elects …turnips

#94 45north on 12.05.22 at 10:04 pm

Conditions today across Canada are as bad, maybe worse, than in the late 1980s and early 90s. That’s when house prices drifted lower by more than 30% over the course of almost two years, then needed more than a decade to recover. People who bought in 1988, for example, didn’t see their investments restored until around 2003. Then, as now, the culprits were unbridled FOMO running headlong into rising interest rates. Wham. Body parts everywhere.

When it takes 335 months for the average family to save a 20% down payment in Toronto, and the qualifying annual income required is $253,934, says the bank, the situation is untenable. Something’s got to break. And, of course, that will be pricing.

Pricing is going to break. The banks have figured this out but the people haven’t. I think there was some back-room deal and National Bank was chosen to be the messenger.

At the community association we’re talking about affordable housing. The Ontario and BC Governments are talking about affordable housing. They’re talking about doubling the rate of construction. How is that going to happen? The banks know that pricing is going to break. They’re the ones who give out building loans. They’re going to be tough on building loans. Very tough. The builders are not going to build.

#95 VicPaul on 12.05.22 at 10:13 pm

#43 Nonplused
…nearly all media outlets are aghast at Musk’s plan to enhance the “context” feature of the new Twitter. CNN is well aware that this feature means they will be fact checked on every single story they post. They aren’t going to survive that. Their business model depends on narrative, not facts.

*********
Interesting…hope you’re right )

M58BC

#96 Quintilian on 12.05.22 at 10:17 pm

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.22 at 8:51 pm

“Drama Teacher.
We need more politicians with classical education and outside of the box thinking.”

Ponz, I’m not so sure you can feather and tar all classical educated people with the same brush.
The blog host has a classical education background and yet, he strikes me as acerbic.

#97 AM in MN on 12.05.22 at 10:19 pm

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.22 at 7:04 pm
#51 AM in MN on 12.05.22 at 5:32 pm
——————
Classic”

Let them eat cake”.
You guys Royalty?

——————————————————-

C$100 gets you a decent steak w/trimmings, a couple of drinks + tax & 20% tip.

The fact that such is considered living like Royalty shows just how far down the lifestyle scale people are starting to get used to.

I’m not partaking in the recession, not drinking the kool-aid of the net-zero crowd.

There is no reason that a nation should strive for poverty in a world of such abundance and technology, other than by choice, and I choose not to.

#98 Reality is stark on 12.05.22 at 10:19 pm

Sorry to burst your bubble (if I can use that euphemism) but it’s not different this time.
Just as 1990 was rough after 1989, 2023 will be rough after 2022.
You’ll be able to buy your equities cheaper next year.
Real estate losses not fully realized yet, wealth effect spending curtailments kick in next year. Be patient grasshoppers.

#99 Don Guillermo on 12.05.22 at 10:20 pm

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.22 at 8:51 pm
Drama Teacher.
We need more politicians with classical education and outside of the box thinking.
Unlike the old boring Economists and Lawyers.

$$$$$$$$$

Hahaha
You should toss in a librarian for good luck. Could be a big help redacting and setting up the teleprompters.

#100 al on 12.05.22 at 10:25 pm

Ok so the CBs decided to be cool with high inflation now. That’s one way to avoid and immediate recession. They said they wanted 2 % but that’s not happening soon without triggering recession. So they’ve abandoned that near term looking at their actions. Let’s see how this experiment goes!

#101 Shawn on 12.05.22 at 10:27 pm

Bank Mortgage Interest Differential Fees

Interesting how these never go the other way. A customer selling a house with 3 years left on a 2% mortgage is doing the bank a HUGE favour.

But the penalty is the greater of 3 months interest or the interest rate differential.

If the interest differential is negative (a benefit for the bank, too bad you pay 3 months interest for the privilege of getting the bank out of a low-interest mortgage that they are very glad to be rid of.
Heads you lose, Tails the bank wins.

Such is life. Such is why we buy bank shares.

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.22 at 10:29 pm

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.22 at 9:56 pm
@#86 Ponzies Political Pairings
“We need more politicians with classical education and outside of the box thinking.
Unlike the old boring Economists and Lawyers.”

+++
Interesting that you didnt include Accountants in that Liberal fantasy.
Unfortunately we all know accountants are needed in the background to help balance the budget.
Alas, they have the personalities of turnips….and no one elects …turnips
——+——.
Funny that you talk about turnips.
Just made a rutabaga stew for dinner.
Ingredients:
Onions
Yellow Peppers
Cabbage
Rutabaga
Carrots
Smoked Pork Hog.
Spices
Sour crème.
Cook at low heat for 4 hours.
Stir occasionally.
Serves 5 adults with a hearty appetite.
About 2 bucks each.

#103 SoggyShorts on 12.05.22 at 10:30 pm

#119 Shawn on 12.05.22 at 2:05 pm
Soggy Shorts said:

And 60k/y is us traveling almost constantly.
40K (8.5% taxes) is what we were spending while we worked, and over what we’ll spend once settled for a bit.

******************************
I take it you are not doing Maui on that budget. Cruise ship, inside cabin? Those are a steal of a deal. I respect that.

**********************
Never tried a cruise, thought they seemed kinda lame even before I read about those who got stuck on the poop ship and then those during covid.

The “secret” is Southeast Asia.
As an example, for our “base” we’ve got a nice 2-Bed 2 bath for under $300/mo that is comparable with the $2,200/mo place I left in Canada, except now I have a pool.

My 120GB cellphone plan is $6/month.

Fresh, delicious seafood dinner at a beachside restaurant for 7 people including over a dozen beers came to about $42 CAD the other night.

We’ve been here almost 6 months now, and haven’t cooked even once.

Round-trip flights to other cities (bangkok/singaporre/hanoi etc) are under $100

Snorkeling, surfing, and scuba, all dirt cheap, and just as good or better than the 5-stars in Mexico I’ve tried.
————————
I’ve said it on this blog before and here it is again:

Being born in a “rich” country is an incredible stroke of luck. To spend your whole life paying rich-country prices is an equally incredible waste.

#104 Summertime on 12.05.22 at 10:38 pm

Let’s see for how long will the underreported high inflation that creates the illusion of prosperity by reporting increasing GDP while real inflation adjusted GDP shrinks fast last.

How many people consume more today than when compared to 3 years ago, i.e. have a newer car, house, go out on a better trip, purchase more and higher quality food and services in order to justify the fake GDP numbers?

How can the real GDP be higher after record debt levels, when productivity does not increase?

Explain that life is rosy to all screwed up renters – rent is up 20-25 % in the last year alone.

Food is up on worldwide scale by over 30 % in a year.

The loonie is down compared to all G7 currencies despite commodities strength which means that all imports are now more expensive.

Congrats to all retirees as well on their ‘generously’ , ‘inflation’ adjusted indexed pensions and benefits.

Of course high inflation will be here to stay for a very long time, the fact that wages go up and Central Banks state that they have reached or are closed to reach their rate increase limits at times when the job market is relatively hot and nominal rates are 1/3 of the real inflation, while the real rates are firmly and strongly negative is worrisome

The repetition of such ‘rosy’ message for quite some time is precisely what real estate pumpers did for years. And it seem they were right…

And you know what? It seem we live in magic times.
Real estate in the big cities increased 6-8 fold in 20 years, stock market ‘is roaring’, there is no inflation.

People need 12-15 years income to purchase an average house vs, historical 3-4.

Renter’s life is good, affordability is great.

All thanks to central bankers magic.

I propose we have some more of that and I hope everyone will enjoy it.

#105 SoggyShorts on 12.05.22 at 10:39 pm

*ack typo the seafood was ~72, not 42. Still, $10 per person is incredible.

#106 Summertime on 12.05.22 at 10:43 pm

The ‘life is good’ statement is precisely/verbatim what bankers and house pumpers stated repeatedly in real life and in the movie ‘The Gig Short’ just prior to the great financial crises, also caused by central bankers and their ‘competence’.

Along with ‘Our economy is strong’.

What was the definition of insanity? Doing repeatedly exactly the same thing and expecting different results.

Let’s see for long will the idiots who believe in this fiction last and what would be their ability to reproduce.

IMHO not long/high, considering the planned high levels of immigration.

#107 SoggyShorts on 12.05.22 at 10:44 pm

#89 jane24 on 12.05.22 at 1:51 am
You do not need 2 million bucks to retire. I retired 9 years ago but I haven’t touched my retirement savings yet as our state pensions plus 2 part private pensions are enough with a paid for house and no debts to service.

*********************
Translation:
If you have a good income and no expenses you don’t need another income. /eyeroll

Jane, based on the 4% rule* a 2m retirement PF allows for a $80k withdrawal each year.

For someone living in Canada it’s reasonable to assume rent is $24k/year. If you don’t have to pay rent, then that’s 600K less you need. (24,000/4%)

So now it’s not 2m, it’s 1.4m + home

If you have pension(s) [most people don’t] of $3,000/month then that’s another 900K you don’t need.

So now it’s not 2m, it’s $300,000 + home + pensions.

#108 Summertime on 12.05.22 at 11:08 pm

#53 crossbordershopper on 12.05.22 at 5:37 pm

A great post.

Depending on the real owners of this place we have 2 scenarios:

1. Smart, savvy owners who incentivize and reward hard work and innovation, invest in their life stock and prosper along with it.

2. Stingy, greedy, stupid owners who try to extract everything form the herd, take 5 skins off it, not caring about productivity, thinking that they will attract somehow more ‘free’ life stock from abroad and the scam game will simply go on forever.

Expect it won’t and judgement day is soon coming.

#109 Ronaldo on 12.05.22 at 11:11 pm

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.22 at 9:56 pm

Unfortunately we all know accountants are needed in the background to help balance the budget.
Alas, they have the personalities of turnips….and no one elects …turnips
——————————————————————
I’d read or heard somewhere that budgets balance themselves. My stepfather would not eat turnips. Used to say they were pig feed.

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.06.22 at 12:00 am

Re: Budgeting
It’s funny how people who’ve never been involved in a budget process, speak as if they are experts.
Sure, it helps to be bookkeeper.
But anyone who’s good at basic math will suffice for the collecting and data processing work.
The real task is more political and human oriented.
It takes a good negotiator and consensus seeker.
In other words, it needs a people person, not a bean counter.

#111 Landru on 12.06.22 at 12:26 am

Your daily reminder that Canadians are dumb as rocks.

========= cut here ===========

Den Norske Stats Oljeselskap A/S (Norwegian State Oil Company) was founded as a private limited company owned by the Government of Norway on 14 July 1972 by a unanimous act passed by the Storting, the Norwegian parliament. The political motivation was Norwegian participation in the oil industry on the continental shelf and to build up Norwegian competency within the petroleum industry to establish the foundations of a domestic petroleum industry. Statoil was required to discuss important issues with the Minister of Industry, later Minister of Petroleum and Energy. Statoil was also required to submit an annual report to the parliament.

#112 Lorne on 12.06.22 at 12:38 am

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.22 at 9:18 pm
@#71 Ponzies Plumber Problem

Most of the plumbers I know are very rich and dont “give” a shit.

@ #81 A Quintillian dollars deeper in Debt
“Thanks for the vote of confidence, although I am a drama teacher by trade, ”
+++
Ladies and gentlemen, the Prime Minister is a Blogdog………
One other comment.
Quinty, could you teach Faron to breathe more and hyperventilate less?

6pm News.

BC Assessment ( your property taxes)
Is INCREASING property assessments from 5 to 15%

The socialist govt’s One last kick at the can as the market tanks?
………
Oh, c’mon! You well know, and it was clearly mentioned again in the story, that property assessments are always based on the value on July 1 of the previous year….just as prices were beginning to slowly drop. They have mentioned that the Assessment will likely be more than the house is actually “worth” at the time it is received.

Property taxes, as you also probably know, are based on the mill rate the city decides to use for the amount of money they feel they need to cover their budgeted items.
Oh, and if a property owner wishes, they can always appeal their assessment.

#113 the Jaguar on 12.06.22 at 1:36 am

Ahem. This did not go unobserved: “The sticks? You mean like Calgary? – Garth”

It’s not our fault that both Harper and Manning live in Calgary, and we do our best to contribute to national GDP. I might get my Jaguar equivalent of feathers ruffled if I were not so singularly focused on finding intelligent reading material to get me through the macro aggression known as the ‘Christmas Holiday Season’.

Why are Joan Didion’s books suddenly so hard lay one’s hands on, I might ask? Yes, I know…..there are electronic versions, but these are only for the ‘bourgeoisie’. Somehow I feel the “MSU’ might best be directed to Dorothy versus Garth..

Now what was it I was looking for……….was it my smelling salts or my riding crop? Too few daylight hours at this time of year. One can easily mix these things up.

#114 SoggyShorts on 12.06.22 at 1:37 am

#108 SoggyShorts on 12.05.22 at 10:44 pm
*500K, not 300k
sigh. I do all of my best proofreading after pressing submit….

#115 Faron on 12.06.22 at 3:21 am

#125 Sail Away on 12.05.22 at 4:39 pm
#122 Faron on 12.05.22 at 2:12 pm
#97 Sail Away on 12.05.22 at 8:29 am
#101 Sail Away on 12.05.22 at 9:28 am

Accepted.

——–

Very good. And btw, any and all of my activity on this blog is only and exclusively on this blog. I’ve not shared your (or anyone’s… except Garth’s) name, position or viewpoints with anybody IRL.

The above contradicts your earlier statement that I am gaining “quite a reputation up there” along with your claimed email exchange with Nanaimo GSAR. Somewhere therein is a lie.

I am extremely suspicious of you and can only conclude that you mean harm. I’ll keep my hypothesis about your change of tack to myself, but feel free to divulge.

The above also raises the question; which other commenters do you have name and position info for?

#116 Faron on 12.06.22 at 3:27 am

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.22 at 9:52 pm
Gee whiz.

“A majority of Canadians feel the removal of “Colonial Statues” is an attack on Canadian history….”

Pro tip: when quoting something apropos of nothing, it’s best to provide a link to the source. Otherwise, we have to assume that there was faulty polling methodology at best or that this is made-up at worst.

#117 Wrk.dover on 12.06.22 at 5:31 am

#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.05.22 at 10:29 pm
Just made a rutabaga stew for dinner.
Serves 5 adults
________________________________________

If that had said serves children, Furz would have Social Services kicking your door down!

#118 Bob on 12.06.22 at 6:13 am

Positive jobs data and what appears to be the end to rate hikes coming soon – seem like we are weathering this storm. With massive hike to immigration coming (probably mostly to S. Ont), I can’t see housing prices declining much, let alone collapsing. If anything, they’ll probably start an upward trend again by 2024 or sooner. This is a different market than much of the world. Now a Chinese downturn, seemingly underway, could change that somewhat.

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.22 at 8:16 am

@#113 Lorne
“Property taxes, as you also probably know, are based on the mill rate the city decides to use for the amount of money they feel they need to cover their budgeted items.
Oh, and if a property owner wishes, they can always appeal their assessment.”
++++

Well, if you live in any other city that Burnaby…..your govt NEEDS those tax dollars.
Burnaby has been slamming 40 and 60 story towers in like lego until to can barely see the mountains from the trans canada highway.
Lotsa tax revenue there…
The traffic? Not so great.
Good luck appealing that assessment.

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.22 at 8:27 am

@#117 Faron’s Faux pas

“it’s best to provide a link to the source. Otherwise, we have to assume that there was faulty polling methodology at best or that this is made-up at worst.”

++++

Blame Global bc 6pm tv news .
They had it scrolling endlessly on their news hour last night.
I also notice the endless harangues from “anti colonialist” Neetu Garcha have been given a back seat.
She used to be on nightly for months with special reports on “mass graves” and perceived slights everywhere.
Havent seen her in weeks.
Apparently.
There is a God.

#121 millmech on 12.06.22 at 9:06 am

Garth
I was curious about swap-based ETFs for tax advantaged investing, to enhance returns in non-registered accounts. Imagine being so afraid of risk that the mere mention of the word swap causes one to hide under covers rather than to seek out information to form a relevant opinion (Quintillian). Had to pull out Mr. Hulls brilliant book and start reviewing Chapter 7 to acquire some more knowledge, one grows by being curious.
Do you have the same opinion on using covered calls in ETFs to generate higher returns as well?
Thanks!

#122 Norland Coboconk Watchdog on 12.06.22 at 9:16 am

DELETED

#123 Dharma Bum on 12.06.22 at 10:09 am

#111 Ponzie

In other words, it needs a people person, not a bean counter.
——————————————————————————————————–

I’m a people person, dammit!

https://www.google.com/search?q=office+space+I%27m+a+people+person+youtube&oq=office+space+I%27m+a+people+person+youtube&aqs=chrome..69i57.10990j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:d3caf686,vid:fcIMIyQnOso

#124 Dharma Bum on 12.06.22 at 10:16 am

#116 Faron

The above also raises the question; which other commenters do you have name and position info for?
—————————————————————————————————

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6HGFMR-D3A&t=3s

#125 Dharma Bum on 12.06.22 at 10:24 am

#104 Soggy

The “secret” is Southeast Asia.
As an example, for our “base” we’ve got a nice 2-Bed 2 bath for under $300/mo that is comparable with the $2,200/mo place I left in Canada, except now I have a pool.
————————————————————————————————–

A cesspool.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.china.org.cn%2Fchina%2F2014-11%2F24%2Fcontent_34131824.htm&psig=AOvVaw0bV9pcjuFRF7gDLXf0e2G1&ust=1670426552467000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CA0QjRxqFwoTCKD95pOm5fsCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAN

#126 Outrage on 12.06.22 at 10:42 am

Soggy Shorts
Yes .living in Canada in the winter sucks big time !! The high cost of living is so high but accepted that’s just the way it is. Currency exchange what kills Canadians over seas. Sad government and central bank destroying our standard of life as usual.

#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.06.22 at 11:02 am

122 millmech on 12.06.22 at 9:06 am
Garth
I was curious about swap-based ETFs for tax advantaged investing, to enhance returns in non-registered accounts. Imagine being so afraid of risk that the mere mention of the word swap causes one to hide under covers rather than to seek out information to form a relevant opinion (Quintillian). Had to pull out Mr. Hulls brilliant book and start reviewing Chapter 7 to acquire some more knowledge, one grows by being curious.
Do you have the same opinion on using covered calls in ETFs to generate higher returns as well?
Thanks!
—————————
Swaps?
First I thought you were talking about partner swapping.
But seriously.
Banks and larger Credit Unions us them to swap short term loans loans with long term loans. And vice versa.
To cover their interest exposure risk.
There’s always counter party risk with this kinda stuff.
I think the 08 fiasco, exposed this.

#128 Lorne on 12.06.22 at 11:04 am

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.06.22 at 8:27 am
@#117 Faron’s Faux pas

Blame Global bc 6pm tv news .
They had it scrolling endlessly on their news hour last night.
I also notice the endless harangues from “anti colonialist” Neetu Garcha have been given a back seat.
She used to be on nightly for months with special reports on “mass graves” and perceived slights everywhere.
Havent seen her in weeks.
Apparently.
There is a God.
……
Or a boss that recognizes talent and promotes her to Global National. Try to stay informed.

http://broadcastdialogue.com/neetu-garcha-joins-global-national/

#129 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.06.22 at 11:09 am

#119 Bob on 12.06.22 at 6:13 am
Positive jobs data and what appears to be the end to rate hikes coming soon – seem like we are weathering this storm. With massive hike to immigration coming (probably mostly to S. Ont), I can’t see housing prices declining much, let alone collapsing. If anything, they’ll probably start an upward trend again by 2024 or sooner. This is a different market than much of the world. Now a Chinese downturn, seemingly underway, could change that somewhat.
—————————————-
Re: China
No country can sustain the growth that China had the last 30 years.
So lower growth rates should be expected.
But then, what do I know.
If you want accurate predictions, you gotta go with FURZ.

#130 Shawn on 12.06.22 at 11:15 am

GDP and Inflation adn actually some good questions from Summertime

#105 Summertime on 12.05.22 at 10:38 pm

Let’s see for how long will the underreported high inflation that creates the illusion of prosperity by reporting increasing GDP while real inflation adjusted GDP shrinks fast last.

How many people consume more today than when compared to 3 years ago, i.e. have a newer car, house, go out on a better trip, purchase more and higher quality food and services in order to justify the fake GDP numbers?

How can the real GDP be higher after record debt levels, when productivity does not increase?

***********************************
Okay, as you know GDP growth is Always reported in real dollars after deducting official inflation.

You think official inflation is understated – if not a blatant lie foisted on the public.

To answer some of your questions look at those retailers that report same-store sales increases broken out by volume increases and as well as nominal dollars. Look at those StatsCan reports that give both volume and price changes.

Look at the low availability of expensive accommodations in Maui. And of rental cars.

In my circle, yes we have friends taking more and more trips and buying more expensive luxury cars.

You are right that there has to be increased productivity.

And we should focus on growth in GDP per capita.

Record debt is totally consistent with higher GDP. Credit and debt is the grease of the economy. If and when a credit contraction occurs we will see negative GDP “growth”.

It’s good to be skeptical and ask questions. But if you never believe any official data then you are sort of lost at sea.

#131 Shawn on 12.06.22 at 11:23 am

Request for Soren Angst on Cost of Living and Budgeting

Stats Can has tracked the cost of a basket of consumer goods for decades and they track it for Canada plus for individual provinces and Cities.

Therefore, they must know the cost of living in different cities and its components.

But in 25 years of occasionally looking I have never found that data from StatsCan.

Soren Angst is an expert on StatsCan data. Maybe he can find it.

Can someone find the cost of living by component by City and show what say a single renter is facing these days and what salary is needed to live decently and have some money to take advantage of TFSA and such?

Never mind what those purchasing an $800k house are facing as we already know the numbers don’t work except maybe with sub 2% mortgages

Actually I think I have come across this but I forget where. Let’s bring it back in the light.

#132 Shawn on 12.06.22 at 11:29 am

Why use Uber Eats and Skip the Dishes

Despite getting promos and offers I have never used Uber Eats and don’t intend to.

Skip the Dishes I would potentially use on a rare occasion but not sure we ever have.

Drive to the restaurant and pick up your order (okay well not if you don’t have a car)

And avoid ordering in. It’s helping to make people fat and unhealthy. Ordering in should be something you do a few times a year at most.

Almost all restaurant meals are excessive and unhealthy. Just stop it.

#133 Dr V on 12.06.22 at 11:32 am

Further to millmech queries at 122, here is a primer on swap-based ETFs.

https://www.moneysense.ca/glossary/what-is-a-swap-based-etf/

While counter-party risk is quite minimal as it should be another financial institution and a small percentage of the total value of the investment, there could be
concern about the tax advantage being lost as the government continues to seek more tax revenue.

The main advantage is to high income earners who prefer cap gains over dividends. Doesnt apply to me, but
may apply to mill mechanics!

For those of us that remember the foreign content limit to RRSPs, a strategy was employed by CIBC (perhaps others) where they would purchase Canada Government
T-bills and use a small portion to purchase foreign index
futures whose returns would get whip-sawed by market movements. The effect is muted by the T-bills, and in the right proportion, the fund would track the index.

#134 Dr V on 12.06.22 at 11:52 am

Re: Covered call ETFs. Did review with my advisor. A little downside protection (cant recall how). Very little upside potential (option will be called). Enhanced portion of the yield from the option premium collected taxed as income.

#135 Russ on 12.06.22 at 12:40 pm

#132 Shawn

Try this one, about 2 choices down in leftish column is a specific inter-city function pick.

https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/subjects-start/prices_and_price_indexes

Cheers, R

#136 millmech on 12.06.22 at 12:43 pm

#134 Dr.V
I always like to dive into stuff like this and see where it goes, learn a little bit more and it keeps the brain active!

#137 Brett in Calgary on 12.06.22 at 1:02 pm

#16 Scott in Gibsons on 12.05.22 at 3:15 pm
I think it’s a bit early to call the bear market over Garth. So many data points at multi- decade extremes. Conditions are unstable.
———————————-
Agreed.

#138 Don on 12.06.22 at 1:03 pm

Just a side for you. I told this before though. Ukraine will be divided.. One OWNER is American btw. BLACKROCK.

The Poles Have Filed a Petition to Hold Referendum and Rejoin with Ukrainian Lvov, Wolyn and Ternopol Regions

The two most nationalism-driven countries seem to have a serious misunderstanding regarding the Wolyn, Lvov and Ternopol parts of Ukraine. A significant amount of Poles seek to vote on a nation-wide referendum and retake those once stolen lands while Ukrainians can hardly oppose that initiative. Anyway, the QR-code proved to be authentic – there is in fact a petition which could say more about our near future than politicians claims and denials.

Shall we expect major reconsideration of Ukrainian territories in 2023?

#139 Wallflower on 12.06.22 at 1:20 pm

#60 Enough with the Partisan Hackery on 12.05.22 at 5:55 pm

Another loser who belongs on reddit.
This internet web is like an enormous neighbourhood where some people totally forget what house they live in. Lost in so many ways.

#140 Faron on 12.06.22 at 1:55 pm

#127 Outrage on 12.06.22 at 10:42 am

Yes .living in Canada in the winter sucks big time

Strong disagreement. #NoFriendsOnAPowderDay

#141 Love_The_Cottage on 12.06.22 at 2:19 pm

WFH is here to stay:

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/working-from-home-housing-office-space

#142 SoggyShorts on 12.06.22 at 9:23 pm

#132 Shawn on 12.06.22 at 11:23 am
Request for Soren Angst on Cost of Living and Budgeting
***************
http://www.numbeo.com

#143 Wait There on 12.06.22 at 9:37 pm

It ain’t over till the fat lady sings.
Claiming that inflation has been beat at this time will bite you.
We have not seen a year of labor negotiations as yet since the peak. Wage increases are higher than the 2% target inflation rate.
We have not even reached the 5% inflation rate as yet and we are calling a win? Wait till we reach 5% then the next stage down to 3-4% will be worse than being constipated for a month.
Either the CBs give up at the 5% or so and let it rip at that or we will have to have a hard landing back to 2%. Soft landing and getting to 2% ain’t gonna happen.
It is going to take at least 2 years to get a direction on what is happening if a soft landing can be predicted. Otherwise it will be a hard landing if we want to reach back to 2% quickly.
The risk is that the mindset of inflation at 5% will be ingrained in the populus if a takes long to bring inflation down and thus make it harder to reduce.
Face it, the Fed and CBs allowed governments to borrrow too much and not this debt has them boxed in.