Congrats

More evidence Friday that you can relax. Take the weekend off. Buy something. There will be no recession. If one sneaks past, it’ll be timid and brief. Take that to the bank.

The latest evidence was a muscular, but not-too-strong jobs report Friday. Canada added 10,000 paycheques, less than the crazy gains of October, but still robust. America chalked up 263,000 new hires. Hot, but not scalding. Tech giants are shedding workers after an incredible expansion, but the broader economy continues to smoke along. The jobless rate here dipped to 5.1% (lower than pre-pandemic) and in the US it’s 3.7% – considered full employment.

Wages are up over 5% in both countries. Been that way for months now. Labour is harder to find. Employers have to pay more. If you really want a job, just ask.

So the implications are this: CBs will keep raising rates to brake the economy and curb prices increases. So far, it’s working. Expect a half-point increase from both the Fed and our guys this month. More after New Years. The pause is now about 1% away. So by the spring the chartered bank prime will be just a hair under 7%. The apex.

This heralds a soft landing. It’s a rare thing. Your grandchildren will want to know about it later, so pay attention.

A soft landing is when monetary policy (which the central banks control through interest rates, bond-buying and other measures) results in an economy slowing down without crashing. In that scenario, rapid price increases (inflation) are dampened, income growth continues, asset values (real estate prices) are whacked a bit, yet the wider economy doesn’t shrink. And just look at some of the labour stats in Canada – of women between 25 and 54, for example, the employment rate is over 81%.

A hard landing, in contrast, is a recession. The economy gets smaller, unemployment spikes a lot, people are pissy, financial and property markets tumble, corporate profits are hollowed out, consumer spending tumbles and citizens who spent too much blame politicians, who they usually toss out.

In this environment, it’s reasonable to expect financial assets to chug higher, as they’ve been doing for a couple of months. Now mix in a resolution of some kind in Ukraine (it’s coming) and a loosening of Covid’s grip on China, and the prospects for 2023 are bight enough for shades.

Say the economists at TD: “Though we haven’t seen it in the labour market data as of yet, the impact of the BoC’s aggressive moves will eventually cool the labour market. With the recent momentum, this is expected to take pace in mid to late 2023.

And here’s what BMO expects: “We remain comfortable with our call for a 50 bp hike next week, with the combination of the surprisingly healthy Q3 GDP report earlier this week and a steady job report supporting that option.”

The message is simple as 2022 grinds to a conclusion – a year in which we saw the nation’s capital occupied and borders points choked by selfish crazies, in which a misguided dictator started the worst war in Europe since 1945, when inflation erupted and the most aggressive rate hikes in half a century resulted, when our bizarre housing bubble popped, when stocks markets dropped into bear territory and Abba crawled back from the dead – it’s okay to exhale.

We survived.

(There was never any doubt.)

About the picture: “I’ve been reading your blog for more than 5 years now,” writes Ryan, “before the affordability crisis was a thing, before Covid. You know it may have been even longer, I seem to have missed a few years there somewhere. I scan the comments sometimes if I can take it , it’s always entertaining. I saw the R.E. woes long ago. that’s how I found the blog. thank goodness it became an affordability crisis, my apprentices thought I was nuts !! Here’s our dog Benji, a double rescue. We saved him from a farm where he got a goat. He pooped goat hair for days, lol. Since been thoroughly domesticated by yours truly. Real sweetheart now but you still gotta watch him around goats …”

118 comments ↓

#1 Dave on 12.02.22 at 3:15 pm

Housing bubble popped…haven’t seen a break price correction in Metro Vancouver…..When is it coming?

#2 Dogman01 on 12.02.22 at 3:18 pm

Thanks to commenters pointing me to the Munk Debate. The comments section is usually interesting sometimes great and always a fascinating aggregator of information.

“defenestrate” what a good word
https://munkdebates.com/

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/matt-taibbi-douglas-murray-dominate-trust-in-media-debate/

I have been watching in fascination Canadian media’s campaign regarding Daniel Smith in Alberta. (as I watch the ongoing Elon Musk vilification in the USA)
The Media has obvious accepts its marching orders.

The Canadian establishment corrupted our media to a point where it has moved from Not-Trusted to now Dis-Trusted.

https://thehub.ca/2022-12-01/opinion-the-alberta-sovereignty-act-appears-to-be-constitutional/

Now longer is it just that “the medium is message”, but the message is the agenda.

– Daniel Smith must actually be on to something
– Elon Musk scares them with free speech
– Mobilization and mass protests of the working class frightens them

Like in China we may soon need VPN’s.

#3 millmech on 12.02.22 at 3:20 pm

Seeing house prices in the mid $300k popping into my inbox, looking for another $100k price drop and maybe I will be getting a nice little retirement home.

#4 Sail Away on 12.02.22 at 3:23 pm

Thanks Garth. Hey, guarded optimism is always the best outlook, since there’s always light somewhere. The economic skies do seem to be clearing admirably.

In solidarity with this hopium, we added to positions in Canadian Tire REIT and Fortis today. Good div, solid businesses, slightly depressed, nice moat and runway.

#5 Dr V on 12.02.22 at 3:24 pm

Benji got a goat?

It’s not just a goat…..it’s a…….

https://www.tiktok.com/@ivyandsophiesmith/video/6964631569495608577?is_from_webapp=v1&item_id=6964631569495608577&lang=en

#6 Summertime on 12.02.22 at 3:25 pm

‘We survived’.

Some did, some apparently not.

The hot US jobs report, wage inflation and hotter than expected core consumers inflation are not a good sign that inflation is under control.

It is too early/wishful thinking to declare that inflation is subdues after 25 % rent increases and 30 %+ food increases worldwide.

If the CBs are about to stop the rate increasing pace….

The thingy will literally hit the fan.

#7 Quintilian on 12.02.22 at 3:25 pm

More evidence Friday that you can relax. Take the weekend off. Buy something. There will be no recession.

The probability is very high that there will be no recession; at least not for a while.

The probability of more rate hikes and at sustained higher rates is also very high.

Realtors, pumpers, highly leveraged, take note.

Tick Tock, Tic Tock

#8 Shawn on 12.02.22 at 3:25 pm

So, the usual advice stands:

“Don’t Just Do Something, Stand There”. Always solid advice for investors with a good portfolio in place.

(A saying I first heard from a former Mayer of Toronto back in the 1990’s)

Well Google says it was Toronto Mayor Alan Lampert WAY back before my time – if you want to trust Google rather than my memory.

#9 Burnaby Boy on 12.02.22 at 3:28 pm

I’m sure glad wages are up 5%. A friend who lives out past Mission in the Lower Mainland was paying $1400 a month at 2.9% had it raised to $2200 a month at 5.95%. Oh joy

#10 Jim on 12.02.22 at 3:29 pm

DELETED (Anti-immigrant)

#11 Bloodhound on 12.02.22 at 3:35 pm

CIBC gave a 21% loan worth $100,000,000 for Greenbelt land to a developer. Insider trading and government corruption?

#12 Bubbles on 12.02.22 at 3:40 pm

Garth
Time to add preferreds?
Double bottom.

#13 Dolce Vita on 12.02.22 at 3:44 pm

I love you Garth but here is what I’m seeing, on or about Dec 2, 3:40 PM UTC-5. YTD:

Dow -6%
S&P 500 -15%
Nasdaq -28%
S&P/TSX -3.4%

Mr. Market is forward looking in terms of Earnings. It does not share your level of enthusiasm.

Maybe it will come around to seeing things your way, but not today.

Somewhere between what you say and Mr. Market; therein, lies the truth.

#14 Bubbles on 12.02.22 at 3:44 pm

Poof done. ZPR…. got out near the top got lots of cash…

#15 Jim on 12.02.22 at 3:46 pm

Re#10…There is a difference between being anti immigrant and wanting to reduce immigration in a housing shortage, but of course Garth is beholden to wealthy financial clients so he doesn’t want to offend them.

#16 Dave on 12.02.22 at 3:47 pm

The war in Ukraine is ideal for usa….destroying Russian military and economy without a single American soldier killed.

Why would USA want to end this and sign a treaty?

#17 Dr V on 12.02.22 at 3:51 pm

Dr V’s rate increase predictions

Dec 2022 0.5
Jan 2023 0.25
Mar 0.0
Apr. 0.25
June. ????

#18 ElGatoNeroYVR on 12.02.22 at 3:53 pm

Electric Vehicles in real life: Shenzhen is the most electrified city in the world where all city busses and vast majority of cabs are electric( you see the odd nonelectric ones at times ) and in theory electric charging infrastrucure should cover everything as it was build to meet demand . All works quite well until late afternoon when all of a sudden all cabs dissapear for a couple hours to …you guessed it – recharge . Ofcourse this is not a fact that all articles praising it have discovered, weird how that works.Unless you actually spend time there you don’t see it. Not even going to bring up where electricity comes from.
Current EV’s are not sustainable as a green technology ,0 emissions ,that is the issue that I have.Performance ,sure . Practical: for some. Cost: no way.
=====
Getting a Job: Quote:”If you really want a job, just ask.” .
Not if you are over 50 or don’ t have a degree. You can ask as much as you want , most places will stay with the positions opened and not hire an older worker or one that doesn’t have a degree (even though 90% of job openings don’t need one realistically , just look at what the job description is) .

#19 Balmuto on 12.02.22 at 4:04 pm

We had a decade of near-zero rates followed by a 350 basis point spike in rates one year (and still counting).

We’ve never had that situation before so we can’t rely on historical precedent to guide us. We’re in uncharted waters and the waters are choppy.

I predict unpredictability.

#20 Steerage on 12.02.22 at 4:11 pm

Garth, do you have any recommendations on the use of spikes while hiking… it seems to be a regular feature of steerage discussion. I”m feeling very confused and wonder if you could provide clarity on this important topic to ensure financial success. Will spikes stop the slide of RE prices or do they provide false security to those who should never scale the heights of RE?

#21 Dolce Vita on 12.02.22 at 4:12 pm

EU agrees to a USD $60/bbl cap on Russian oil via the sea.

Personally routing for a CRAZY IVAN maneuver …

“Russia could retaliate by slashing its output, which would roil markets. Russia previously warned that it will stop supplying countries that adhere to the cap.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/02/energy/russia-oil-price-cap-europe/index.html

Also, Italia puts Sicily Lukoil refinery under trusteeship (gets all its oil via the sea), 20% of Italia’s refining capacity. Italia trying to sell it, problem is still where to get the oil from esp. if there is a CRAZY IVAN?

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/italy-put-lukoil-owned-refinery-under-trusteeship-thursday-2022-12-01/

Basically, your EVIL RIGHTY Gov in Italia has NATIONALIZED as you would expect from SUGAR AND SPICE, EVERYTHING NICE LEFTIES.

But of course, let’s use the PC word “Trusteeship” instead.

————–

Where the above ends, who knows? One thing I do know is:

yeah oil

#22 wallflower on 12.02.22 at 4:13 pm

Oh dear. Next to dogs, goats are the best.
Mount Baldy Thunder Bay super place to hang with a flock (?) of crazy, fun goats.

#23 willworkforpickles on 12.02.22 at 4:15 pm

BANNED (Abusive)

#24 ken on 12.02.22 at 4:18 pm

Take off your pink glasses Garth…no, the sky isn’t falling….but on the other hand, these rates haven’t even had any time to bite yet.

#25 Sail Away on 12.02.22 at 4:20 pm

#20 Steerage on 12.02.22 at 4:11 pm

Garth, do you have any recommendations on the use of spikes while hiking… it seems to be a regular feature of steerage discussion. I’m feeling very confused and wonder if you could provide clarity on this important topic to ensure financial success.

———

In the absence of a response by Garth to this vitally important topic, I would venture he may suggest a prospective hiker visit the local Search and Rescue Facebook page and follow their recommendations for their hike.

If the hike happens to be, oh, say… Mt. Benson in winter, SAR notes that ‘microspikes or trail crampons are essential’.

#26 Bubbles on 12.02.22 at 4:21 pm

#18 ElGatoNeroYVR on 12.02.22 at 3:53 pm
Current EV’s are not sustainable as a green technology ,0 emissions ,that is the issue that I have. Performance ,sure . Practical: for some. Cost: no way.
———————–
Correct.
As an engineer…. Yup they ain’t green. It produces mega carbon on the build side. The grid can barely keep up to home building.
BUT I’m on # 3 and bought previously enjoyed so when gas was $1 litre. Its $6 for 400km on hydro.
I put in the charger in my garage. I paid $29k for a $60k Nissan with 10,000kms so it make sense.
Not for most though….Long story indeed on the issues…
Another clueless effort by our gov.
Trudeau is absolutely ignored on all levels.

#27 Zed on 12.02.22 at 4:21 pm

Let’s not forget the breakup of Yougoslavia as a very big war in the 1990s, tens of thousand of dead.

Garth, how can you be sure that the central bankers will be able to control inflation and not kill the economy by raising interest rates when you say that inflation is not the central bankers’ fault but Putin’s? If the CBs could not predict nor prevent inflation because it was beyond their scope, how can we trust them to control inflation when they do not control Putin?

The way i see it is that the CBs are attempting to reduce inflation, without any control on Putin/climate/environment, by slowing their economies but no guaranties that it can work.

So many governments are giving money to their constituants to alleviate the impact of inflation thus putting more money in the economy and creating more demand.

We cannot trust that the CBs’ actions will be effective.

#28 Dr V on 12.02.22 at 4:24 pm

stats for Vancouver Island RE

http://www.vireb.com/index.php?page=20

Mar and Nov 2022 board totals

Ave price 913K to $772k -15.4%
Median $867K to $725k -16.4%

#29 Bubbles on 12.02.22 at 4:24 pm

#23 willworkforpickles on 12.02.22 at 4:15 pm

Can you pls look up the word BANNED?

#30 Dolce Vita on 12.02.22 at 4:28 pm

#17 Dr V

If I were you I would be putting ??? on anything Jan 2023 and forward.

—————–

Garth omits today to mention this fact:

US/CDN Target Inflation Rate …

2%

US/CDN Wage Increases …

+5%

Let your imagination run with inflation “stickiness”.

You still need people to make sh!t and deliver services for Earnings to grow, unfilled job openings:

US = 10.3 million
Canada = 994,800

Of course, the above vacancies will not put any pressure on rising wages. Right?

And yeah oil, per the very recent Goldman Sachs projection, forecast to increase in 2023 by …

30%

———————-

It over yet until the Robust Lady sings. Plenty of Inflation to come, not going down for some time.

There will be more rate increases, high, if oil blows up in price … and I think it will.

#31 Sylvian on 12.02.22 at 4:28 pm

And just look at some of the labour stats in Canada – of women between 25 and 54, for example, the employment rate is over 81%.

………………………………………………..

Single white men in this age category are being replaced. Thus, Pierre Poilievre’s future voting base.

#32 earthboundmisfit on 12.02.22 at 4:33 pm

Has no one else caught onto the scam called “EV Rebates”? By leaving the administration of the so-called rebates to the dealerships, the only ones being incentivized are the dealers themselves, and the manufacturers, to increase their prices. Recently visited a Hyundai dealership to have a look at the Ionic5, with an MSRP of $44,900. By the time the sales rep wrote up a proposal, the price was $66,000 and change, after $5000 rebate. Wait time 10-12 months. Laughed and walked out. Content to wait for solid state batteries.

#33 Can't avoid politics on 12.02.22 at 4:44 pm

“– a year in which we saw the nation’s capital occupied and borders points choked by selfish crazies, in which a misguided dictator started the worst war in Europe since 1945”

I assume you are referring to Trudeau and Zelensky?

From Nonplused – more Russian trolling. – Garth

#34 willworkforpickles on 12.02.22 at 4:45 pm

BANNED (Abusive)

#35 Joseph R on 12.02.22 at 4:46 pm

#31 Sylvian on 12.02.22 at 4:28 pm
And just look at some of the labour stats in Canada – of women between 25 and 54, for example, the employment rate is over 81%.

………………………………………………..

Single white men in this age category are being replaced. Thus, Pierre Poilievre’s future voting base.

——————————

How are white, single men “replaced” ? What’s the relationship between employed women are white, single men?

#36 Brett in Calgary on 12.02.22 at 4:47 pm

I think it’s interesting that the household job survey shows very little job creation over the past few months, while the US Non-Farm Payrolls continues to show gains. What is the difference? The latter counts jobs, not people. There are more people working 2-3 jobs than before. This also explains why the labor participation rate sucks.

#37 Dolce Vita on 12.02.22 at 4:49 pm

yeah 🍁

“Canada leads the G7 for the most educated workforce, thanks to immigrants, young adults and a strong college sector, but is experiencing significant losses in apprenticeship certificate holders in key trades”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221130/dq221130a-eng.htm?HPA=1

Immigration placement not perfect, but getting there … despite what cherry picking Poilievre says:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221130/g-a003-eng.htm

———————

Let me repeat, send a thank you note to these people:

https://www.canada.ca/en/services/immigration-citizenship.html

#38 Brian on 12.02.22 at 4:49 pm

Switzerland Considers Electric Vehicle Ban To Avoid Blackouts

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Switzerland-Considers-Electric-Vehicle-Ban-To-Avoid-Blackouts.html

I guess they will have to cover the ski slopes with more solar panels and wind turbines!

#39 Faron on 12.02.22 at 4:51 pm

#31 Sylvian on 12.02.22 at 4:28 pm

Single white men in this age category are being replaced

incel, replacement theory nut alert!

#40 Faron on 12.02.22 at 4:55 pm

#25 Sail Away on 12.02.22 at 4:20 pm
#20 Steerage on 12.02.22 at 4:11 pm

Damnit, It’s dead Jim. The horse is dead. Continued flogging is just desecration. ReSPeCt tHE HOrsE!

#41 Joe Schmoe on 12.02.22 at 4:59 pm

I wonder how many of these jobs are the Feds “redaction” branch of the government.

“Must not be bothered by the smell of sharpie”

#42 Mike Willis on 12.02.22 at 4:59 pm

Smoke & Mirrors

FACT
100,000,000 working age Americans are unemployed.

There will be no soft landing, and be careful telling Canadians to go buy something. Else you’ll start to sound like a very unpopular central banker.

We are in a recession, destruction in the retail sector is devastating as we begun to see the effects of lockdowns. The Hospitality industry is reeling from the effects of real food inflation (not the BS numbers you see in the press)

And when the stock market poops itself as it will, you can rest assured Garth will be here to tell you, everything is going to be alright, just stay invested. Cat gets the cream

So panic and go to cash. See how that works out for you in the long run. – Garth

#43 the Jaguar on 12.02.22 at 5:02 pm

Dear Santa;

Tomorrow means Christmas Eve is only three weeks away, so I thought I would get my Christmas Wish List off to you. Here it is:

– An automatic abort or delete function on Garth’s Blog anytime Faron attempts to post anything in reply to Sail Away, and this should apply especially to anything about Mount Benson, climbing apparatus and other related ‘huffing and puffing or I’ll blow your house down’.

– Please also kill any further press reporting on the Public Order Emergency Commission and place all current musings in a time capsule to be opened on December 31, 3022.

-Please see to it that every cat and dog in Canada lives in a safe and loving home with a warm bed and plenty of kibble and other treats.

-For myself I would like a digital copy of ‘Ballad of the Sad Young Men’, which is a perfect accompaniment to enjoying an El Presidente in front of a roaring fire on Christmas Eve while hoping the terrible war overseas will end soon. Oh never mind Santa….I already have it.

Here it is for you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWDpGljw0Bs

#44 Recession on 12.02.22 at 5:05 pm

Recession is on.

It is happening, in real dollars, right now.

When economy grows 2% or 3% and inflation is close to 10%, that is negative YoY growth.

I recall how western press makes fun of China reported growth numbers and how they can’t necessarily be trusted. And here we are, doing the same number spin.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics by the spinsters.

A recession is two or more quarters of negative growth. We have had none. A recession in your house does not mean one outside. – Garth

#45 Faron on 12.02.22 at 5:06 pm

Wow, another 1/4 million jobs added. This Biden guy, sheesh. So much winning. I’m getting tired of all the winning. These liberals must really hate America and Canada to be enabling continual, strong jobs growth and robust economies with so many economic headwinds.

And to think, Biden does all this while taking a moment to denounce the documented surge in antisemitism driven by Elon Musk’s Twitter “leadership”.

#46 Faron on 12.02.22 at 5:08 pm

#43 the Jaguar on 12.02.22 at 5:02 pm

Just FYI, the first two represent cancellation of free speech rights.

#47 Triplenet on 12.02.22 at 5:08 pm

#20 Steerage
Not to worry…. these ‘broke-back mountain’ boys will soon get bored with this real estate/investment site and go back to Grinder.
We can hope.

#48 alexinvestor on 12.02.22 at 5:15 pm

Very odd that the 5 year Canada government bond rate has dropped to 3%. Almost free money if you short this and buy short term.

#49 Regjeg on 12.02.22 at 5:16 pm

1 year returns at mkt close today:

DJIA -0.61%
S&P/TSX Comp -1.33%
S&P 500 -11.04%
NASDAQ -25.48%
TSX-V -34.17%

Onward and upward in ‘23

#50 Wrk.dover on 12.02.22 at 5:17 pm

Garth Turner is a man of his word.

Chillax folks!

#51 Sail Away on 12.02.22 at 5:18 pm

#43 the Jaguar on 12.02.22 at 5:02 pm

Dear Santa;

Tomorrow means Christmas Eve is only three weeks away, so I thought I would get my Christmas Wish List off to you. Here it is:

– An automatic abort or delete function on Garth’s Blog anytime Faron attempts to post anything in reply to Sail Away, and this should apply especially to anything about Mount Benson, climbing apparatus and other related ‘huffing and puffing or I’ll blow your house down’.

———

Oh, that’s just silly, Jag.

No rational person would continually and bafflingly dispute the use of microspikes or trail crampons on Mt. Benson when SAR calls them ‘essential winter gear’.

Also- *trigger alert*- it is currently very snowy on the mountain and tomorrow we’ll probably wear *gaiters*. Maybe even *toques* and *gloves*.

#52 Joe Schmoe on 12.02.22 at 5:22 pm

No, I’m just right. As usual. – Garth

If I learned one thing in life, it’s never argue with the guy holding the microphone….

#53 Neo on 12.02.22 at 5:22 pm

So Canadian housing will make a soft landing at ludicrous prices. Looks like we soft land in the 3rd world.

#54 Luke on 12.02.22 at 5:29 pm

Following a masochistic listening session I can confirm: ABBA is still dead.

#55 Shawn on 12.02.22 at 5:38 pm

100 million unemployed in the U.S.

#42 Mike Willis on 12.02.22 at 4:59 pm
Smoke & Mirrors

FACT
100,000,000 working age Americans are unemployed.

***************************************
Writing FACT does not make your obviously wrong claim true.

Such a number if it has any basis at all must include all retired people including those unable or not interested in working. That is, it would have to include even 90 year olds with dementia to be remotely true.

Working age definition must have been set 200 years ago because it includes everyone over age 15 with no upper limit. So you would also be including those high school and university students who don’t work and are not looking for work.

And give a link to your false fact next time.

#56 the Jaguar on 12.02.22 at 5:40 pm

#46 Faron on 12.02.22 at 5:08 pm
#43 the Jaguar on 12.02.22 at 5:02 pm
Just FYI, the first two represent cancellation of free speech rights.+++

Jeepers, Karen. Hadn’t considered that, but since it’s you let’s throw in forcible confinement and water boarding. Cue the hysteria.

#57 Russ on 12.02.22 at 5:41 pm

#46 Faron

Yes, but only for the second concern as trampling free speech.

Garth’s blog, = no free speech, see “willworkpickles” as confirmation…

Cheers, R

#58 willworkforpickles on 12.02.22 at 5:56 pm

BANNED (Abusive)

#59 Terry on 12.02.22 at 5:58 pm

“and the prospects for 2023 are bright enough for shades.”

It does look better for next year. Our investment portfolios are almost back to making new record highs.
Life is still good!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrriKcwvlY

#60 VladTor on 12.02.22 at 5:58 pm

Garth,

Your forecast today is super optimistic.
BUT!
Inflation for October 6-9% —> https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi
Bank of Canada policy rate – 3.75%.

If this inflation is killed by this rate , then …. we need to rewrite all the textbooks on economics in which they taught that inflation can only be killed with a bigger rate . As result we must admit that economics is not a science.

I think it’s still just getting started. There will be no pause in rate increase in 2023 … may be once in first quarter of the year. Then up…up up!!!!

#61 Victor Llearna on 12.02.22 at 6:02 pm

Soft landing or not, I really hope those sheep that kept buying overpriced houses in the worse city for commute times in north america learna their lesson.
That city is toronto by the way. Total Hellhole.

“Toronto has worst commute in North America, sixth worst in world: study”
https://www.cp24.com/news/toronto-has-worst-commute-in-north-america-sixth-worst-in-world-study-1.3983200

#62 B from Q on 12.02.22 at 6:06 pm

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1938229/fitzgibbon-chauffage-quebecois-electricite-eoliennes

“Le gouvernement envisage donc une loi pour forcer les Québécois à réduire leur consommation, surtout au cours des pointes hivernales, lorsque le réseau d’Hydro-Québec manque de puissance.”
“The government is considering a law to force the Quebecers to reduce the electricity consumption, especially during winter peaks of consumption, when Hydro-Quebec lacks the power.”

We need more electric cars on the roads.

That is why we all needed those smart counters.

#63 Flop… on 12.02.22 at 6:10 pm

Checking back in, I see the caboose is still off the rails.

Ive got a financial question for you guys.

Hypothetically, of course, if you came to Canada 20 years ago, and you had trouble opening a bank account, mainly because you only had a one year work visa, then had been banking with HSBC ever since, what would you do given the recent RBC announcement?

They are talking late 2023 for the takeover, so if you were in that situation would you let them handle the switch, get proactive and move the money to where you’re comfortable ahead of that time, or maybe hybrid approach, open up small starter accounts elsewhere and see how it plays out in the meantime?

Also, why are a select few posters so determined to run this blog into the ground?

I used to watch a show called Bar Rescue on t.v.

The guy running the show, Jon Taffer, used to go into failing bars and restaurants, get the background, observe, overhaul and rebuild the business, which sometimes involves rebranding and asking parties to part ways if no good is going to come of it.

Some of the businesses problems usually came down to neglect or laziness at accepting the current state of affairs as normal, Taffer would normally bring in a team of experts, sometimes he would walk if he thought that the people would not be appreciative.

One gruff line that he used to use, that I think applies to this place in its current state.

Clean the f$&#@*g place up, will ya…

M48BC

#64 Ben on 12.02.22 at 6:15 pm

@ #1 Dave
Housing bubble popped…haven’t seen a break price correction in Metro Vancouver…..When is it coming?

********

Dave….read this today….thoughts?

Home Buyers of REBGV Detached Homes in November were paying $306,486 less than they were in February.

On an Apples to Apples comparison Home Buyers of Detached Homes are now paying late 2015 prices in real terms.

https://twitter.com/rosskay/status/1598469996149362689

#65 Bk on 12.02.22 at 6:34 pm

So much for the long overdue realestate correction… at least in bc anyway. I guess the realtors were right.

Property values will continue to fall into 2023. – Garth

#66 Shirl Clarts on 12.02.22 at 6:37 pm

#14 Bubbles on 12.02.22 at 3:44 pm
Poof done. ZPR…. got out near the top got lots of cash…

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Hey Bubbles, you sold your preferreds? I think it’s near the bottom, not the top, right? Where do you think it’s headed?

#67 dave on 12.02.22 at 6:50 pm

Ben #65

I live in Richmond and havent seen any price changes yet

#68 Faron on 12.02.22 at 7:20 pm

#58 Russ on 12.02.22 at 5:41 pm

Yes, that is correct. I was adopting the language of the right when they complain about getting cancelled.

#69 Faron on 12.02.22 at 7:23 pm

#52 Sail Away on 12.02.22 at 5:18 pm

Toques, scarves, gaitors amd even water are all good choices as they don’t*increase* the risk for the inept.

Anyhow, keep floggin’. Maybe the horse will rise zombie-like.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.22 at 7:31 pm

@#23,34,59 EmptyPicklejar
Banned

+++
Garth has occasionally nuked my comments with no “Deleted’ ….just nuked…….and I mix another drink and carry on.

You however, are like Sisyphus pushing a rock uphill……for all eternity.

The “Banned” beneath your name is a reminder to the rest of us where Blogdog purgatory lies……..

#71 Sail Away on 12.02.22 at 7:39 pm

Elon’s busy releasing all previous Twitter’s internal decision-making to suppress the Hunter Biden laptop story, including the company’s distress that they’ll face ‘hard questioning’ over whether this was censorship they could defend.

Fascinating saga. My heart exults with joy at the liberation.

#72 Flop… on 12.02.22 at 7:43 pm

Flop Drops.

Haven’t done any documentation on here for a while, so I’ll do an entry so people can look back and laugh at what we were up to when we’re all dead.

Vancouver detached, yeah, like the snowstorm, slow melting taking place, I’ll try and stay current, so let’s have a look at this place that sold this week.

The details…

979 e 17th Ave, Vancouver.

Original ask 1.49

Assessment 1.39

Just sold for 1.18

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2719515/939-E-17TH-AVENUE-Vancouver-BC/

So I’ve seen a few go cheaper but basically in Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond and North Shore this is the bottom.

Everywhere the other side of the mighty Fraser you can buy something less than a million.

What about if your budget was half of that?

Chilliwack, Agassiz, and everywhere that Hope is lost is your best bet.

I’ll show a respectable place in a gated community that sold in Chilliwack this week to show the very bottom end of detached at this minute.

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2731525/31-46485-AIRPORT-ROAD-Chilliwack-BC/

The details…

Original ask 699k

Assessment 539k

Just sold for 535k

So that’s that.

Just started to notice a bit of discounting going on for condos, should deepen next year if current conditions continue.

Someone just snapped up this penthouse, where the previous owners started a renovation and didn’t follow through, could be a nice apartment for someone, could be flipped and back on the market in the summer.

Time will tell.

The details…

# PH1 2733 CHANDLERY PLACE, Vancouver

Asking 599k

Assessment 657k

Just sold for 570k

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2735964/PH1-2733-CHANDLERY-PLACE-Vancouver-BC/

Ok, that’s enough real estate talk, let’s get back to tampons, crampons and stamp ons…

M48BC

#73 Reality is stark on 12.02.22 at 7:47 pm

The insolvencies haven’t had a chance to work their way through the system yet.
There will be plenty of time to add to equity positions next year when the blood begins running in the streets. The banks are just getting started with loan loss provisions.
Consumer spending will fade next year as higher rates cut into disposable income.
Central banks will regret the decision to raise rates so aggressively. They will be held to account.

#74 Summertime on 12.02.22 at 7:50 pm

A recession is a normal part of the Business/Credit cycle.

Nothing scary in it.

Attempts to avoid it by introducing extreme stupidities in the monetary policy is not a good idea.

———————————-

Inflation is here to stay. The wage increases proves it. It is a key fundamental part of the inflation spiral.

To break the inflation spiral central bankers must break the labour market first and then the credit market second.

I just red that BoC will likely increase one more time and then pause.

Really? With rates at 4 % and real inflation of necessities firmly in double digits while creatively accounted for CPI ‘shows’ 7- 8 % and that is called ‘fighting inflation’?

We are most likely about to witness an inflation tsunami coming our way.

A reminder – rents increases of 20-25 % with world food prices up 30 %+ in a year.

While rates in the last year averaged meager sub 2 %!

There has never been a case of rents or food prices coming down in history except in complete economic shutdown.

If oil breaks up again, we are pretty much screwed. If it does not, we are pretty much screwed as well.

Given the facts, I can not really understand that praising of central bankers.

What we see in terms of economy ‘growth’ is pretty much an asset inflation first and now necessities inflation second, both driven by idiotic monetary policies introduced by incompetents that should have no power to control money at all.

What part of the population today lives better (excluding technology advances) in terms of affordability of housing, food,
service now with the stock market tripled vs. let’s say 15-20 years ago?

Close to zero.

Why then if the economy is strong today we have rates lower than 20 years ago with inflation 5-10 times higher? While we had rates close to zero for 15 + years?

So what are we celebrating here?
The death of money?

#75 Summertime on 12.02.22 at 8:03 pm

I have been reading about a house prices correction from 2008-2010 when prices in GTA and Vancouver were less than 1/3 from current and now I am reading by the very same sources statements that housing will not crash but merely decline and then stabilize?

We can’t have it both ways, cusk and blow at the same time as this site stated on numerous occasions.

Let’s be honest, acknowledge that central bankers screwed up big time, lost control of the inflation and now the poor and the middle class will have to pay, are paying and will be paying with reduced standard of living for generations.

Everything less than openly acknowledging that fuels and will fuel conspiracy theories (supported by many conspiracy facts), as it is evident in the posting section.

Is that we want?

Isn’t it time for central ‘bankers’ to earn respect and confidence vs. demanding it?

#76 Summertime on 12.02.22 at 8:04 pm

suck and blow at the same time, the spellchecker messed it up.

#77 Leftover on 12.02.22 at 8:37 pm

#16 Dave on 12.02.22 at 3:47 pm

Totally agree plus the American generals get to see how little firepower they actually need to make the Russians run away. They’re not limiting their weapon technology to the Ukrainians because they’re worried the Russians will over-react – they’re limiting the technology because they want to know where they stand after the dust settles.

Right now it looks pretty good for NATO.

#78 Doug t on 12.02.22 at 8:44 pm

It’s times like these that make me feel like we are just “kicking the can down the road” again and again …..

#79 Faron on 12.02.22 at 8:50 pm

#73 Flop… on 12.02.22 at 7:43 pm

Ok, that’s enough real estate talk, let’s get back to tampons, crampons and stamp ons

How about tramp stamps? Can we talk about that?

#80 Faron on 12.02.22 at 8:52 pm

#72 Sail Away on 12.02.22 at 7:39 pm

Luckily, I’m in the mood for a nothingburger. Sounds like more Elon Musk hot air.

#81 millmech on 12.02.22 at 9:05 pm

Flop
Some other Chilliwack listings that will drop 25%
9826 Menzies
#1-9444 Woodbine St

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.22 at 9:06 pm

6pm News
BC lost 14000 jobs in Nov?

#83 TurnerNation on 12.02.22 at 9:13 pm

A real risk is of T2 shutting down this weblog. You know for stuff like no land acknowledgement daily .
Or not enough diversity among the bloggers. (Unless one of the New Guys is willing to take one for the team? There might be a government programs to aid this) :-)

————-
The new push by our rulers is toward MAid. Yep they want us gone. Why health care is slashed also. There is no more news…only the Manufacturing of Consent,

https://www.macleans.ca/society/food-bank-pandemic-need/
I run a food bank. We’ve seen a 60 per cent increase in demand. | “Clients are telling us they’re considering medically assisted death or suicide because they can’t live in grinding poverty anymore.” macleans.ca

————-
————-
These people will own nothing be happy! Renting their abode from the Banks. A Lifetime perma-mortgage.

“Globe says ultralong amortizations spike at BMO, others
The Globe and Mail reports in its Friday edition that the share of mortgages with ultralong amortization periods has rapidly increased to about 30 per cent of home loans at some of Canada’s biggest banks, another sign borrowers are struggling with higher interest rates. The Globe’s Rachelle Younglai and James Bradshaw write that at Bank of Montreal, the proportion of residential mortgages with amortization periods longer than 30 years reached 31.3 per cent last month. At CIBC, the share was 30 per cent and at Royal Bank of Canada it was 27 per cent, according to the lenders’ latest quarterly results, released during the week. That is up from the end of July, when 30-year-plus mortgages accounted for one quarter of each of the three banks’ residential mortgage portfolios. The July numbers were a significant increase from the end of April, when those loans made up 10.6 per cent of BMO’s portfolio and 12 per cent of mortgages at RBC and CIBC. In October, 2021, before the country’s central bank started hiking interest rates, the three banks had no mortgages with amortization periods above 30 years, according to their disclosures. The situation is hard on variable-rate mortgage holders with fixed monthly payments.
© 2022 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

#84 Tony on 12.02.22 at 9:22 pm

Re: #68 dave on 12.02.22 at 6:50 pm

Look at just the corner lot properties. Are they selling? I’m in Markham and that’s what I look at. None are selling.

#85 Flop… on 12.02.22 at 9:22 pm

#80 Faron on 12.02.22 at 8:50 pm
#73 Flop… on 12.02.22 at 7:43 pm

Ok, that’s enough real estate talk, let’s get back to tampons, crampons and stamp ons

How about tramp stamps? Can we talk about that?

////////////////////

Let’s stick to our strengths.

I’ll do the comedy, you stick to the tragedy…

M48BC

#86 Tony on 12.02.22 at 9:29 pm

Re: #64 Flop… on 12.02.22 at 6:10 pm

Royal Bank could also attempt a takeover of Wealth One Bank of Canada.

#87 Quintilian on 12.02.22 at 10:03 pm

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.22 at 9:06 pm

6pm News
BC lost 14000 jobs in Nov?”

You watch the 6pm news, and you have a land line right?

This is what the CB’s are trying to achieve.
Higher unemployment and to deflate housing prices, which is a main contributor to inflation through the wealth effect.

Some of the early retirement lazy curmudgeons will need to renter the work force, putting downward pressure on wages.

Not a big deal, except for speculators, house pumpers and highly leveraged idiots who listened to their brother-in-law.

#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.02.22 at 10:13 pm

#26 Bubbles on 12.02.22 at 4:21 pm
#18 ElGatoNeroYVR on 12.02.22 at 3:53 pm
Current EV’s are not sustainable as a green technology ,0 emissions ,that is the issue that I have. Performance ,sure . Practical: for some. Cost: no way.
———————–
Correct.
As an engineer…. Yup they ain’t green. It produces mega carbon on the build side. The grid can barely keep up to home building.
BUT I’m on # 3 and bought previously enjoyed so when gas was $1 litre. Its $6 for 400km on hydro.
I put in the charger in my garage. I paid $29k for a $60k Nissan with 10,000kms so it make sense.
Not for most though….Long story indeed on the issues…
Another clueless effort by our gov.
Trudeau is absolutely ignored on all levels.
———————-
As usual the solution is simple:
Buy smaller car, and drive less.
Applies to all cars.
Gas, EV or Beer.

#89 al on 12.02.22 at 10:20 pm

Sounds like the rates aren’t working as the wages , jobs supporting prices keeps increasing. It looks soft because nothing has landed yet .. And won’t at rates half the inflation rate. A soft deceleration is where we are at right now, in the first quarter of the show. Or maybe it’s different this time.

#90 Tom from Mississauga on 12.02.22 at 10:24 pm

No recession in North America, energy is too cheap here compared to everywhere else.

But peace in Ukraine? No way. After that mobilization? Putin knows he can’t do that again, he may stall while they get ready. America will continue to supply more and better weapons, he can’t stop now.

Xi did not get to where he is by bending to pressure, China is a cult of personality, Zero Covid remains. Get a iPhone 14 now before it’s too late.

#91 BC Renovator on 12.02.22 at 10:51 pm

a year in which we saw the nation’s capital occupied and border points choked by selfish crazies,

______

A Protest and a peaceful one at that…
Never a breath from GaGa (Garth) about First Nations blocking Rail lines, BLM’s looting and what those cost and the affects on economy. tsk tsk. Short sighted

None of those events occurred in 2022. Read. – Garth

#92 SoggyShorts on 12.02.22 at 11:00 pm

#58 Russ on 12.02.22 at 5:41 pm
#46 Faron

Yes, but only for the second concern as trampling free speech.

Garth’s blog, = no free speech, see “willworkpickles” as confirmation…

Cheers, R

#59 willworkforpickles on 12.02.22 at 5:56 pm
BANNED (Abusive)

*************************
Haahaha nice combo

#93 The joy of steerage on 12.02.22 at 11:12 pm

86 Flop… on 12.02.22 at 9:22 pm
#80 Faron on 12.02.22 at 8:50 pm
#73 Flop… on 12.02.22 at 7:43 pm

Ok, that’s enough real estate talk, let’s get back to tampons, crampons and stamp ons

How about tramp stamps? Can we talk about that?

////////////////////

Let’s stick to our strengths.

I’ll do the comedy, you stick to the tragedy…

M48BC..
…….
That was Shakespearean flop!!… steerage is rising.

#94 Ronaldo on 12.02.22 at 11:13 pm

#28 Dr V on 12.02.22 at 4:24 pm
stats for Vancouver Island RE

http://www.vireb.com/index.php?page=20

Mar and Nov 2022 board totals

Ave price 913K to $772k -15.4%
Median $867K to $725k -16.4%
————————————————————–
There are exceptions of course like this one that is listed for sale for 5.9 million which is 4 million over the July 2020 assessment.

https://www.rew.ca/properties/4570529/3356-stephenson-point-road-nanaimo-bc

#95 kommykim on 12.02.22 at 11:24 pm

RE: A recession is two or more quarters of negative growth. We have had none. A recession in your house does not mean one outside. – Garth

=======================================

Reminds me of an old Harry Truman quote:

It’s a recession when your neighbour loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours.

#96 VicPaul on 12.02.22 at 11:36 pm

#22 wallflower on 12.02.22 at 4:13 pm
Oh dear. Next to dogs, goats are the best.
Mount Baldy Thunder Bay super place to hang with a flock (?) of crazy, fun goats.

*********
Water-skied a sheltered harbour of Superior in the summer/skied Baldy (and Loch/Candy/Norway) in the winter.
I forget the name of the little hill attached to Baldy with the poma lift – maybe, The Glades – many skinny pines.
Idyllic childhood in the Lakehead in the 70’s/80’s. Very fortunate.

M58BC

#97 Naomi on 12.02.22 at 11:41 pm

OK ….there were big announcements that rising rates would cause Preferred shares to bloom over the past two years. What’s happened to that? They’ve all tanked hard and lots of money and people who came here for advice are in the toilet. Are preferred shares now a tax loss candidate?

#98 Ronaldo on 12.03.22 at 12:11 am

So a review of my B&D 62/38 portfolio shows that it is down now only -9% from its high ytd and back to April 28th level. This is after hitting its low on June 16th at -16.2%. Still, looking at the previous 3 year performance of 34.5%, it is still averaging around +6.3% and still have another month to go. Not bad but not great either. I would be happy if it ended the year even.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.03.22 at 12:17 am

The Royalties are partying in America.
Aren’t they supposed to be in Africa.
Healing the sick.

#100 Chris on 12.03.22 at 1:01 am

This is a relief! Thank you Garth!!!!

#101 Faron on 12.03.22 at 1:26 am

Elon Musk is a fricking clown show.

https://www.theverge.com/2022/12/2/23490863/elon-musk-twitter-expose-hunter-biden-flop-doxxed-multiple-people

If that’s the worst Twitter has done, then Twitter 1.0 is exonerated.

Elon is clumsy and incompetent like Donald Trump. The One blows his brains out on coke and video games and the other on Fox News and Diet Coke. One has to wonder about his acolytes. Idiocracy at work.

#102 Balmuto on 12.03.22 at 1:37 am

90 al on 12.02.22 at 10:20 pm
“It looks soft because nothing has landed yet”

Bingo.

#103 Can't avoid politics on 12.03.22 at 2:02 am

#33 Can’t avoid politics on 12.02.22 at 4:44 pm
“– a year in which we saw the nation’s capital occupied and borders points choked by selfish crazies, in which a misguided dictator started the worst war in Europe since 1945”

I assume you are referring to Trudeau and Zelensky?

From Nonplused – more Russian trolling. – Garth

————————–

Not really. The point was more that there are two sides to every story.

Many Canadians feel that Trudeau’s reaction to covid and then the trucker protests was over the top. He shut down all sorts of things, including the borders, before the truckers ever rolled into town. But now he’s getting in front of every camera he can to support the protests in China. Do you have any idea how hypocritical that looks to many people? He certainly doesn’t seem to.

As for the war in Europe, well, they all look crazy to me. Putin is deplorable, no doubt, but that doesn’t make Zelensky a saint by default. There is plenty of evil to go around. The devil is a busy man, but never too busy to play both sides. The war could have been over a long time ago if there were anyone sane involved. But nope! We’re going to take it nuclear! Great strategy! Thanks for nothing. Literally. Because that’s all that is going to be left. Nothing.

#104 Dr V on 12.03.22 at 2:29 am

93 soggy

“Haahaha nice combo”
————————————

yeah, I had to laugh at the irony.

#105 Dr V on 12.03.22 at 2:35 am

95 Ronaldo

“There are exceptions of course like this one that is listed for sale for 5.9 million which is 4 million over the July 2020 assessment.”
————————————————

The VIREB stats were for sales, not listings.

Even if this one sold near asking, it would not have a great effect on the median.

Or was this just tongue in cheek?

#106 the Jaguar on 12.03.22 at 8:46 am

NP Snippet:

“The head of the world’s largest fertilizer firm is warning of global shortages ahead with supplies from Russia and Belarus becoming more limited than even he anticipated.
“Russia and Belarus are just enormous producers of fertilizer,” Nutrien Ltd. chief executive Ken Seitz said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters. “There are export challenges in the region. That’s certainly going to have a material impact on the markets.”
“As we watch the trade flows now — especially given where potash prices are at and have been — those producers are looking for every outlet that they can find and that they’ve now exhausted those outlets.”
“We believe 2023 is not a demand concerned world, but a supply concerned world,” Seitz said. “There’s not gonna be enough potash to go around.”

( While Central Banks focus on demand kill the issue of supply chains hasn’t gone away..)

#107 Zero on 12.03.22 at 8:59 am

#69 Faron on 12.02.22 at 7:20 pm
#58 Russ on 12.02.22 at 5:41 pm

Yes, that is correct. I was adopting the language of the right when they complain about getting cancelled.

=================================

No other poster adds so little and detracts so much from this blog as you. Your endless attempts to incite might once have been mildly amusing, the antics of a small child, but now they’re just predictable and boring.

Negative, nasty, whiny, and divisive. It’s very sad. So much poison will kill you eventually.

Try once in awhile to add something uplifting, something edifying.

Otherwise please just go away.

Said without malice, by the way. I hope you can get help.

#108 baloney Sandwich on 12.03.22 at 9:28 am

Upbeat message from Garth. Ready for the Santa Claus rally, dogs? The S&P 500 has formed a classic W-double bottom. Happy days are here again.

https://i.imgur.com/HnDtfed.png

#109 Lies Lies and more Lies on 12.03.22 at 9:32 am

Never Ever Ever Trust the Commies…

On December 3, 1991, during the All-Ukrainian referendum, 90.92% of respondents gave an affirmative answer to the question: “Do you confirm the Act of Proclamation of Independence of Ukraine?”. The All-Ukrainian referendum produced the Act of Proclamation of Independence of Ukraine, adopted by the Verkhovna Rada – the legal force that made it possible to assert that the Soviet Union as an object of international law ceased to exist, and a new independent state – Ukraine – appeared on the political map of the world. On December 1, 1991, the all-Ukrainian referendum was held the same day as the first presidential elections of Ukraine, and Leonid Kravchuk became the president of the newly independent Ukraine.

#110 Observer on 12.03.22 at 9:59 am

#108 Zero on 12.03.22 at 8:59 am
#69 Faron on 12.02.22 at 7:20 pm
#58 Russ on 12.02.22 at 5:41 pm

Yes, that is correct. I was adopting the language of the right when they complain about getting cancelled.

=================================
Your endless attempts to incite ….

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
From what I observe, Faron doesn’t incite so much as he REACTS to the narcissists (particularly SailAway) and neanderthals who themselves are the ones that endlessly incite.

#111 BABY'S BUM on 12.03.22 at 10:24 am

THANK YOU SIR GARTH!!

Now off to our regularly scheduled shopping spree.

Had a dream last we bought a motorhome.

Lets see what the weekend brings.

#112 NEVER GIVE UP on 12.03.22 at 10:41 am

#2 Dogman01 on 12.02.22 at 3:18 pm

The Canadian establishment corrupted our media to a point where it has moved from Not-Trusted to now Dis-Trusted.
==================================

It has been a year and a half since I ostracized North American Media from my life.

I miss a bit of local news but the loss of anger at the MSMs Social Engineering Campaign is totally liberating.

I see and hear no Wokeism anymore!

If anything is important in Canada I will hear it on the BBC or Al jazeera English news. Surprisingly Al jazeera is political only on their Arab news. The English Chanel is left alone and wholly funded for unknown reasons.

I am not a patriot. Only a twinge of affinity for this nation that I was born in. I have my many reasons too numerous to mention.

#113 NEVER GIVE UP on 12.03.22 at 10:56 am

#110 Lies Lies and more Lies on 12.03.22 at 9:32 am

Sadly, after Libya and Ukraine the takeaway is…. Never give up your nukes! Only North Korea clearly understands this.

Countries who give up nukes should be given article 5 protection under NATO permanently. Even Russia if they could be convinced!

#114 Sail Away on 12.03.22 at 11:07 am

#107 the Jaguar on 12.03.22 at 8:46 am

Re: Potash shortage

Fertilizer companies have done very well over the last year and it seems like it might continue. Nutrien in Canada and CF Industries in the US.

#115 Ustabe on 12.03.22 at 11:12 am

#111 Observer on 12.03.22 at 9:59 am

#108 Zero on 12.03.22 at 8:59 am
#69 Faron on 12.02.22 at 7:20 pm
#58 Russ on 12.02.22 at 5:41 pm

Yes, that is correct. I was adopting the language of the right when they complain about getting cancelled.

=================================
Your endless attempts to incite ….

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
From what I observe, Faron doesn’t incite so much as he REACTS to the narcissists (particularly SailAway) and neanderthals who themselves are the ones that endlessly incite.

My observation as well. For instance Faron wasn’t on this thread, wasn’t posting, until both Sail Away and Old Boot laid on the dog whistles and called out to him. Or was that yesterday? The day before? Who cares, it happens over and over. Sail Away needs the attention and loves it when folks who either do not know or do not care about how the Faron we know was created jump to his defense.

#116 jess on 12.03.22 at 2:07 pm

the media debate at munk
collaborative journalism

transparency -companies house

Britain’s register of companies was reformed in 2011 to allow incorporations within 24 hours for £12. Now the number of firms on its books has soared – and so have the complaints
Anna Isaac City editor
@Annaisaac
Sat 3 Dec 2022 13.00 GMT
…The fraud involved 142 fake firms on Companies House.
But last month saw a major setback in the battle to fight fraud and money laundering by cleaning up company registries. A ruling by the court of justice of the European Union (CJEU) on 22 November undid, in one fell swoop, years of campaigning by tax and anti-corruption groups to make the ownership of companies more transparent.

It found that one of the key provisions of the 2018 EU anti-money-laundering directive, which ordered member states to make the identity of company owners public on their corporate registries, was invalid.The CJEU ruled that public access to such information was a “serious interference with the fundamental rights to respect for private life and to the protection of personal data”.

Following the judgment, several jurisdictions known for facilitating tax avoidance and money laundering, including Luxembourg, Cyprus, Ireland and Malta, have already restricted access to ownership information on their registers.

Beneficial Ownership Data is Critical in the Fight Against Corruption

In the aftermath of a “disastrous” European court ruling, we explain why journalists — and the public — need access to corporate ownership registries.
https://www.occrp.org/en/beneficial-ownership-data-is-critical-in-the-fight-against-corruption/

#117 JDAWG68 on 12.04.22 at 11:19 am

Nah the BOC blinked last time and are obviously seeing signs of stress somewhere in the system .25 max and possibly nada.

#118 Pulp Faction on 12.04.22 at 9:14 pm

Higher rates and huge debtload mean less disposable income which leads to less consumer spending which leads to a slower economy and that’s not temporary.
These debtloads are for years not days, we’ve only got a brief taste of it and the chickens have not near come home to roost.
The cost of doing business has risen and continues to do so, and lower unemployment rates do not reflect that many businesses are forced into shuttering due to lack of staff.
Energy costs are also rising and we’ve yet to see the true long term impact of all of this year’s many changes as we wait with popcorn in hand to see where the chips really fall. It’s looking like a soft landing but still far too early to call it that.
Let December 2023 be a better indicator of where we’re heading. People are still pulling out all the stops to stay in the game.
Wait until sober second thought and an empty bag of tricks rule the day.