The crisis

In six weeks Canada will ban anybody not a citizen or PR from buying a house. It’s the latest, and most profound, dumb move by politicians who are staggering through a housing crisis that’s really a financial one.

When it comes to real estate, governments are out of control. BC’s had an anti-Chinese property tax for a few years now, which has done nothing to corral prices. Ontario’s go-away anti-foreigner tax is now a withering 25% and province-wide. Nova Scotia – recipient of massive gobs of real estate money during the pandemic – now has a 5% acquisition tax on all CFAs (come-from-aways). Vacant house taxes have distorted the Vancouver market for a few years and are about to hit Toronto.

Meanwhile governments are tossing out regulations that for years have kept real estate equity in place – like zoning. Ontario shocked by decreeing anybody will be able to build a three-unit edifice just about anywhere, despite what any municipality (or neighbour) thinks. And Doug Ford is carving 7,000 acres out of the anti-sprawl greenbelt around the GTA to build, well, sprawl. Fifty thousand new homes.

If you own real estate, changes like these are consequential. Once the economy swings fully back into boom mode (next year) things may never be the same. Is that good? Or just another example of elected people making stuff worse?

The goal of all this is to (a) reduce demand by kicking out people buying high-end properties (which 99.5% of Canadians would never purchase) and (b) increase the supply of houses because that will make them more affordable (which will not occur).

Inconvenient facts: real estate sales have plunged this year. Down over 40% in October. Likely a 50% plunge in November. Inventory is building in the resale market, which proves we do not have too few houses to meet demand. Meanwhile sales of newly-built homes have essentially collapsed. In Toronto, to zero. And Canada’s largest builder, Mattamy Homes, has shuttered sales centres amid a 65% drop in buyers.

High-rise condo projects are being cancelled now at a helluva clip. The thousand proposed new units in the GTA alone just went dark. Of the 95,000 condos under construction in the region, about a third will be ready for occupancy in 2023 and the overwhelming majority will be hitting the rental market, or listed for sale after the buyers (who never planned on closing) fail to close.

Days-on-market are shooting higher in every major market. Bidding wars still exist for good places in prized, in-demand hoods, but elsewhere they are gone. Buyers have time to research and view, then make conditional offers providing a measure of protection. The FOMO is kaput.

Against this reality – a crisis of affordability, not supply, with unsold homes piling up – governments are racing to spend huge amounts of public money on building a gazillion houses at a time when materials are costly and labour in short supply. Nothing will be cheap. But politicians have created an expectation that this is the big fix. In reality, it’s the big lie. Nobody will be moving into a shiny new $300,000 townhouse in urban YVR or 416 soon. Maybe ever. And yet that’s all most people could comfortably afford. It’s time we leveled with citizens. A house is not a right. Do not gut your life trying to obtain one. Don’t waste your vote on people selling you gossamer.

Now, what of the unintended consequences?

More density in our cities is an absolute given. So is less green space. Grass, trees, bushes, squirrels and birds are just clutter now. They suck up valuable space where there could be 200 condo units and a bicycle storage room. Leafy neighbourhoods full of chestnuts and traditional SFHs? Fuhgeddaboudit. The rush to house as many as possible will facilitate triplexes and low-rise rental units where Audis once roamed. Municipalities are being disempowered, which threatens to forever alter local landscapes. Owners will be further encouraged to build suites and take in tenants, while turning garages into a laneway houses.

The above is happening now, or currently being legislated into daily life. The impact of densification is as yet unclear. And it’s tough to see how any of this makes real estate cheaper, more accessible or affordable. In fact, with zoning laws tossed, big houses turned into multiple units generate more income. Market values may rise, not fall. The rentiers and renters drift further apart on the scale of net worth.

I can’t find Canadian stats, but here is the American reality: newbie buyers’ share of the real estate market has gone from 41% to 26%. The kids been replaced by older, wealthier purchasers. The median age of buyers is the highest on record, at 53.

It’s time we buried the myth that everyone needs real estate. The day has come to stop discriminating against renting by showering tax-free gains on owners, allowing property to be bought with RRSPs or creating that new taxpayer-subsidized house-purchase account. One generation is being enslaved. Another enriched. Wake up.

About the picture: “We had to say good-bye to our dog Rusty this week,” write Fred and Anna. “He was a rescue dog and he rescued us many a time with his many adventures and boundless enthusiasms. Please share the pic with your readers if you feel so inclined. Hope all goes well. We’re busy being semi-retired and enjoying every minute of it.”

195 comments ↓

#1 Squire on 11.15.22 at 2:13 pm

Calling all slumlords… The land of milk and honey and tenants forever.
So much land in such a large country and we have to deal with this stupidity. Unreal !

#2 WTF on 11.15.22 at 2:22 pm

In Laws Vancouver Special, Knight and 49TH has a new 4plex being built across the St.

Got me thinking that yes prop values will jump on the new zoning, What about parking/ water/ sewer/ power infrastructure. Wont cities need to beef up all those services before wholesale development in every neighborhood where 4 families supplant one?

What a bloody mess politicians have created. Lurch from fix to disaster.

#3 Faron on 11.15.22 at 2:26 pm

#99 jess on 11.15.22 at 1:00 pm

ah the blessed

Reminders for our eyes / ice roars it melts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DLnhdnSUVs

Thanks Jess. That’s a moving piece of artwork.

I highly recommend to anyone, especially those who enjoy wide dynamic range, that they visit a calving glacier sometime in their living days. The silence alone is worth it while the thundering roar of a calving event is stunning. Watching or hearing Earth do Earth-scale things is incredible.

#4 dave on 11.15.22 at 2:32 pm

So when is the real estate correction coming to Metro Vancouver? Ever?

#5 Chimingin on 11.15.22 at 2:35 pm

RIP Rusty, you were a cutie!

#6 PeterfromCalgary on 11.15.22 at 2:37 pm

House prices are falling due to rising interest rates. Of coarse the politicians will take the credit because they did this other stuff like ban foreigners from buying and change zoning.

#7 Captain Uppa on 11.15.22 at 2:44 pm

Garth, can these new free-for-all policies by the ON government FORCE some homeowners with large lots to give it up?

I guess what I mean is; will they make offers the owner can’t refuse?

#8 A.R on 11.15.22 at 2:45 pm

Good article,
Our governments are as short sighted as the constituents they’re trying to buy with these silly policies. Being in the construction industry for 15 years, I’ve built massive residential buildings downtown Toronto on the same roads as horse and buggy used to frequent. Keep stacking people high into the sky but just remember the infrastructure underneath the road weren’t built with any foresight into future demand or capacity. Also, if they wish for people to keep building, their war on the personal vehicle will only hinder the tradesmen who are smart enough not to live in the city to make it to work every day. Eventually this will all come to a head just like most things naturally do.

#9 Shawn on 11.15.22 at 2:45 pm

Canada Produces Only 5% of World Oil demand!

Note that world oil demand and consumption is a conveniently round 100 million barrels per day. That makes calculating percent’s real easy.

BDWY has some great figures:

#101 bdwy on 11.15.22 at 1:59 pm
shawn,
top 20 oil producers 2021 wiki.

United States 11,184,870
Russia 10,111,830
Saudi Arabia (OPEC) 9,313,145
Canada 4,459,455
Iraq (OPEC) 4,084,822
China 3,987,677
United Arab Emirates (OPEC) 3,091,481
Brazil 2,905,121
Iran (OPEC) 2,546,336
Kuwait (OPEC) 2,527,106
Norway 1,775,813
Kazakhstan 1,764,463
Mexico 1,734,495
Nigeria (OPEC) 1,540,991
Qatar 1,303,685
Libya (OPEC) 1,237,808
Algeria (OPEC) 1,133,123
Angola (OPEC) 1,127,449
Oman 970,816
United Kingdom 810,531

**************************************
Latest figure I have for Canada is a bit higher at 5.4 million barrels per day.

In any case that means Canada is only producing about 5% of world oil production. Less than half that of the U.S. Miles below OPEC. Half of what Russia produced pre-war.

No wonder that in recent comments about where to get more oil, the U.S. did not even mention Canada. They know we are a small producer and that our pipelines are already full and we are not capable of adding pipelines. (Thanks mostly to Justin Trudeau)

We are FAR less important on the world oil markets than we are led to believe. It’s a bit deflating.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/265182/oil-production-in-canada-in-barrels-per-day/

#10 "NUTS!" on 11.15.22 at 3:00 pm

Garth, I have no faith that the housing market will ever reflect any semblance of normality in this country. It’s a phenomenon that defies any sense of logic or guiding principles. Higher interest rates ‘should’ impact real estate prices in an inverse relationship, emphasis on should. However, I have little faith that we will much correlation between the two.

#11 Raja on 11.15.22 at 3:00 pm

A reset is required in real estate . By the way I have my real estate license but not actively pursuing it
Following you since 2013 but never commented

#12 Shawn on 11.15.22 at 3:00 pm

New Home Building – Alberta’s still okay

And we have no crazy empty house tax or foreign buyer taxes. Other Canadians are free to buy here and don’t even have to move here to do so.

As of September, single family home construction investment was 26% higher than September of last year . It was 4% below August and fairly similar to June and July. These figures are NOT seasonally adjusted.

This is not building permits, which lag and can be canceled. This is investment, money actually spent in September.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3410017501

Actually, even for Canada as a whole single family home construction investment remained pretty strong as of September.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221114/dq221114a-eng.htm

#13 ElGatoNeroYVR on 11.15.22 at 3:00 pm

For once I can’t really disagree with anything in today’s blog post.Garth hit on all major consequences.
I would only disagree on the zoning action ; fact is in today’s world nothing can be built without a lengthy 2-3 years process of consulting with every homeowner and most of it ( with few exceptions) is formality.
The local municipalities have utterly failed at providing the service they were supposed to helped by aggresive NIMBY home owners. No review should take years especially when developers build cookie cutter developments or SFH’s.So they brought it upon themselves and yes ,everyone will suffer the consequences.
I am torn if this is a bad measure with good consequences or if it will really change anything.I doubt we will see condo towers or affordable townhomes going up in say Point Grey or Marpole.
Afordability is indeed the key word here. As said before ,a condo should not cost twice as much /sqft than an SFH.Let’s start there.

#14 Swole Wole on 11.15.22 at 3:04 pm

Having so much of the urban core of Toronto only zoned for SFH’s is terrible urban planning. It’s only that way because of pressure from NIMBY’s looking to protect their investment and pull the ladder up. I don’t think building triplexes on existing lots will destroy neighbourhoods or tear up the trees lining the streets. I’m surprised to see you being so alarmist about this.
Less development allowed in the core just means more sprawling, environmentally destructive development in the greenbelt and burbs.

More rental units being added does seem like it would help lower rent. I’m not sure if you’re aware how much rent has gone up in the last few years in cities like Toronto and Ottawa relative to income. Fewer young buyers right now = more renters.

#15 PBrasseur on 11.15.22 at 3:07 pm

Won’t change a thing because foreigners buy, or should I say invest, in Canadian housing through their student kids who easily become PR. Plenty of Moroccans did this in Montreal, even when they’re not supposed to be allowed to take their money outside Morocco. As they say when there’s a will…

There’s a reason Canada is seen as a money laundering paradise!

Zero impact on prices. Just an impact on envious people. – Garth

#16 Nonplused on 11.15.22 at 3:20 pm

Any attempt to “fix” a market through regulation makes matters worse. Price is the only thing that works, and that price being set by supply and demand. High prices caused by high demand encourage production. Low prices caused by government dictate cause high demand but reduced supply.

Any time the government attempts to fix something, they make it worse. This is because they don’t understand economics, and they believe they have the power to create real world realities by affecting perception.

Remember, the first rule of economics is that there is no such thing as a free lunch. The first rule of politics is to ignore the first rule of economics.

#17 PeterfromCalgary on 11.15.22 at 3:21 pm

Really positive news from the US today in it’s fight against inflation. The producers price index (PPI) for October which was expected to rise at 0.4% for October only rose 0.2%. Last week the US CPI also came in lower then expected.

#18 Mr Canada on 11.15.22 at 3:21 pm

# 1 ? Home Prices down, rates are up – nothing changes from an affordability perspective.

#19 Rent the Podium on 11.15.22 at 3:22 pm

Great piece. Although not sure I agree with your assessment of FHSA, seems like a pro renter policy in the end, even if that’s not what was intended?

#20 Tom on 11.15.22 at 3:27 pm

DELETED (Anti-Chinese)

#21 Dave on 11.15.22 at 3:29 pm

“The goal of all this is to (a) reduce demand by kicking out people buying high-end properties (which 99.5% of Canadians would never purchase)”

Lol, have you ever been to the west side of Vancouver?

Oh, did you get beat in a bidding war for a $6 million house? – Garth

#22 Ustabe on 11.15.22 at 3:32 pm

I was never comfortable above tree line, I was a hiker, not a mountaineer.

But there are a trio of mountains in the Purcels that allow you to summit all three in one day. So I went with my buddies and managed 2 while they did all three. Rounded a bit, 11,000 feet and 13,000 feet. The third is a bit shy of 14,000 feet. Of course you don’t fully climb each one, you summit #1 and then clamber across the ridge line to the next where you are faced with maybe 2,000 feet. Ditto the third.

From any of them, the view across the volcanic caldera over to the Rockies is one of my life experiences I will never forget. You are gently yet powerfully reminded of how inconsequential you really are.

Age and a hip prevent me from even a moderate hike now…I’m good for a adventuresome walk still but no more elevation combined with scrambles.

Invermere is a good place to begin, any of the climbing shops can tell you were the trail head is and how to start.

#23 Dave on 11.15.22 at 3:32 pm

DELETED (Anti-immigrant)

#24 yvr_lurker on 11.15.22 at 3:34 pm

There is the “world according to Garth” and there is the world that the average citizen lives in and experiences daily. On this topic, these two worlds are very divergent.

By not allowing non PR status individuals to buy up properties, we will try to make a “closed system” where prices will decrease (hopefully) into range where two good LOCAL incomes can purchase something decent in our major cities. I am not so hopeful of this as we have had now a decade of surging prices, with the latest surge due to Gov’t mismanagement of setting interest rates near zero. Hopefully, prices will come down enough with the high interest rates, but we need not allow offshore purchases. Best decision that Trudeu has made, and I generally deplore him for other reasons.

“A home is not a right”. Correct. However, isn’t it a sad state of affairs in this country if a young family with two good earners is shut-out forever from purchasing their forever home? How is this progress as compared to the 1960s–1990s? Are we to all live like the do in East Asia, Hong Kong, etc…, cramming families into small apartments with little greenspace and recreation amenities? Should we all be super-glad that this might stlll be a viable option for families when the densification and the 500K+ per year new immigrants arrive over the next decade. Is what we will get a better life than what the previous generation had? Nope…

Foreign buying has been pretty much at zero levels since 2020, and guess what happened to prices? Banning others is just a kneejerk action of bad faith. Wait until the Yanks do it to us and see how much chaos this mentality causes. – Garth

#25 RE_Investor on 11.15.22 at 3:40 pm

In fact, with zoning laws tossed, big houses turned into multiple units generate more income. Market values may rise, not fall.

I totally agree with you Garth. You have a tremendous vision into what can happen. Anyone who is sitting on land in Toronto was handed the chance of developing more housing. Anyone that raised a family in a nice house can now reap the rewards of multi suites or a lot split. This recent dip in housing prices looks interesting. With the Ontario govt and municipalities getting ready to increase housing stock, why not look into Real Estate investing.

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2022/08/25/already/comment-page-1/?unapproved=858320&moderation-hash=28331d1b79c1063155262f9b0e9dc403#comment-858320

https://www.greaterfool.ca/2021/11/25/detached-from-reality/#comment-814479

#26 yvr_lurker on 11.15.22 at 3:44 pm

#14
Having so much of the urban core of Toronto only zoned for SFH’s is terrible urban planning. It’s only that way because of pressure from NIMBY’s looking to protect their investment and pull the ladder up. I don’t think building triplexes on existing lots will destroy neighbourhoods or tear up the trees lining the streets. I’m surprised to see you being so alarmist about this.
Less development allowed in the core just means more sprawling, environmentally destructive development in the greenbelt and burbs.

—–
Indeed it is a dilemma. Now consider that 500K new Canadians will arrive for each of the next 3 years. 1.5M new citiizens that need some form of housing. Many will desire to live in communities with previous arrivals with the same cultural background and language, and this means they will be focused on our major urban centers,
and not small cities like Fredericton, Moncton, Saskatoon etc.. that need new talent. So imagine in three years time that Toronto gets 40% of 1.4M new arrivals. Where should these 560K people live exactly, without there being some rapid densification? Seems like nobody is examining the consequences of these back-of-the-envelope estimates. Will it be urban sprawl or rapid densification of the core… choose one option, otherwise it does not compute

(a) Don’t exaggerate. Targeted newcomers level will not hit 500,000 until the end of 2025. (b) Immigration is the future, or you can look forward to a life far more taxed with services far less robust. We’ve been living a fairy tale, beyond our means. Just consider how people on this site want to game the system to increase CCB benefits they don’t need. We have lost our way. – Garth

#27 yvr_lurker on 11.15.22 at 3:47 pm

Foreign buying has been pretty much at zero levels since 2020, and guess what happened to prices? Banning others is just a kneejerk action of bad faith. Wait until the Yanks do it to us and see how much chaos this mentality causes. – Garth
—-
You know the reason and we have had this discussion previously. Interest rates were set to zero by Gov’t as an over-reaction to Covid. Now that prices may be coming down by higher rates, do we want to allow citizens of other countries to purchase local houses as they find them cheaper than our local citizens do as a result of our Canadian dollar decreasing? No… closed system, and indeed my mind is closed shut on this topic.

More misinformation. (a) The government does not set interest rates and (b) US houses are 40% cheaper than ours. Why would they flock here? Canadians caused this issue. You are misled by envy, not guided by logic. – Garth

#28 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 3:47 pm

One generation is being enslaved. Another enriched. Wake up.
– Garth

———————–

I understand the context in which you meant that Garth.

But in cold hard numbers, EVERY age group got SLAMMED from 2022 Qtr 1 –> Qtr 2, buy ya, in % terms the KIDS got slammed the MOST. In $ terms, Paleos got slammed the most.

Total Net Worth X $1,000,000 in 2022 Qtr 2 ($/% drop from Qtr 1)

Less than 35 years = 917,172 (-79,484, -8.0)
35 to 44 years = 1,777,846 (-146,031, -7.6)
45 to 54 years = 3,186,442 (-221,362, -6.5)
55 to 64 years = 4,161,071 (-256,496, -5.8)
65 years and over = 5,172,724 (-286,766, -5.3)

Everything went negative except for “Other non-financial assets” which per StatCan is your basic stamp collections, jewelry, etc.

“… include consumer durables, machinery and equipment, and intellectual property products. Excludes accumulation of value of collectibles including coins, stamps and art work.”

In the Cosmic Scheme of Affairs, Other non-financial assets went up by little.

The largest asset drops where in these 2 categories and the older you are, the greater the loss ($ losses X $1,000,000 for Less than 35 years vs. 65 years and over, 2022 Qtr 1 –> Qtr 2):

1. Other financial assets * (-21,161 vs. -118,830)
2. Real estate (-44,566 vs. -109,768)

* Other financial assets include total currency and deposits, Canadian short-term paper, Canadian bonds and debentures, foreign investments in paper and bonds, mortgages, equity and investment funds, and other receivables.

Other Not So Fun Facts …

Value per household $/Total Net Worth X $1,000,000, 2022 Qtr 2

Owners = 1,282,523/13,863,274 – e.g., 1.28 Million/13.9 Trillion
Renters = 251,885/1,351,981
All households = 940,558/15,215,255

Pre-1946 = 610,584/1,272,985
Baby boom = 1,285,227/6,141,623
Generation X = 1,312,939/5,703,138
Millennials = 422,072/2,097,508

——–

Net Worth Qtr 4, All Households, X $1,000,000

2018 = 11,265,986 – e.g., $11.266 Trillion
2019 = 12,282,617
2020 = 13,609,027
2021 = 15,997,025
2022 = 15,215,255 (Qtr 2)

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610066001

——————

Expect 3rd Qtr to be worse. 2022 will be in the rear view mirror soon enough. I expect 2023 Net Worth in Canada to continue its INEXORABLE CLIMB.

All in all, Cdns a pretty RICH BUNCH.

Go Canada go.

#29 chalkie on 11.15.22 at 3:50 pm

Canada’s housing downturn decelerated in October and the percentage of sales will continue to fall as borrowing costs soar.

Canada will raise the borrowing cost again come December putting more of a tailspin on the housing economy.

The Feds are stirring up the pot on who can and cannot purchase a home, we are a democratic society right?
Some Provinces discriminating against Canadians where we chose to live in this beautiful country by showering us with provincial levies.

By March of 2023, there will be that many home listings on the market, it will turn into a free for all on choices of what you want and where you want it and lets not forget, what you are willing to pay for it, as for prices-lower, lower and deeper she goes as the Feds close off the foreign buyers.

Mortgage cost have doubled in a short period of time, only the cash rich home buyer is getting the benefits of the downturn, some sales are happening, due to people thinking that we have reached the bottom of the reduced home price market, “they are wrong and ahead of themselves” the housing price will continue to drop until inflation is whipped.

Some hype on inflation coming down, but it is only a trickle, just look at the numbers and see where the targeted 2% fits into the query.

The majority of variable-rate mortgage holders have fixed monthly payments where the payments do not change until they can no longer cover the interest, this has delayed the major fallout from higher borrowing costs, it’s getting close, the landslide in on the horizon to see a surge of home listings.

Musk has major Twitter and Tesla troubles; Congress is riding his tail to fix his companies or they will do it for him.
Federal authorities are investigating Elon Musk in connection with his $44 billion acquisition of Twitter, the social media platform said in a court filing Thursday.

Tesla, Inc. has been criticized for its cars, workplace culture, business practices, and occupational safety.
Many of the company’s criticisms are also directed toward Elon Musk, the company’s CEO and Product Architect.
Critics have also accused Tesla of deceptive marketing, unfulfilled promises, and fraud.

The company outlined an extraordinary deal for Musk in 2018 that would pay him an unprecedented record $55.8bn bonus if he built the business into a $650 billion company within a decade, guess what, he did it.

For the layman, 55.8 billion equates to giving a million US dollars each to 55,800 people, not bad hey, for a Kingston Ontario University Graduate.

Quote of the day: Money is like Sex; only too much is enough.

#30 45north on 11.15.22 at 3:58 pm

Ontario shocked by decreeing anybody will be able to build a three-unit edifice just about anywhere, despite what any municipality (or neighbour) thinks. And Doug Ford is carving 7,000 acres out of the anti-sprawl greenbelt around the GTA to build, well, sprawl. Fifty thousand new homes.

Doug Ford is playing peek-a-boo with housing. In January, he commissioned the Housing Affordability Task Force which called for the elimination of R1 zoning. There was an election last summer. He quietly put the Housing Affordability Task Force on the shelve. Now that the election is over, elimination of R1 zoning is back on the table.

Inconvenient facts: real estate sales have plunged this year. Down over 40% in October. Likely a 50% plunge in November. Inventory is building in the resale market, which proves we do not have too few houses to meet demand. Meanwhile sales of newly-built homes have essentially collapsed. In Toronto, to zero. And Canada’s largest builder, Mattamy Homes, has shuttered sales centres amid a 65% drop in buyers.

so, builders will build fewer units.

But politicians have created an expectation that this is the big fix. In reality, it’s the big lie.

yes it is

another thing, province-wide zoning enables poor-quality housing. $1000 worth of gyp-rock and 2X4’s, you can turn your single family house into a duplex. Result is poor heating, poor insulation, poor plumbing and poor parking.

#31 NOSTRADAMUS on 11.15.22 at 4:00 pm

SO, SO YESTERDAY, CASH IS TRASH!
My how time flies. It seems like only yesterday that for every voice you heard saying “Save a little for a rainy day, was shouted down by the soothsayers, “Don’t be so stupid, it ain’t ever going to rain, give me your money and I will make it grow so that you will never have to work again, Trust me.” Those who actually believed the siren call of debt, and more debt, rolled over and over are now caught by surprise that the never ending road of good times actually has an end. Those who did not listen to this madness, of how this time is different, and cash is trash will be just fine. I don’t know how moral people keep their sanity in this lawless environment where evil wins so often. I’m just a fly on the wall taking you behind the soothsayers wall

#32 Maths are hard on 11.15.22 at 4:02 pm

It’s time to talk realistically about the European gas situation. There is talk about that because Europe has some gas in storage, perhaps an amount similar to what they usually carry into the winter, they will be ok without Russian supplies. Nothing could be further from the truth.

First, my resume: I have years of experience in utility supply management. I’ve done this stuff. Millions of people have depended on me doing it correctly.

This model is simplified. The realities are much more detailed and complicated, but it would take a long time to explain and even then many would not understand it. I think everyone can understand this simplification.

We can divide the gas market into 3 conceptual blocks. Block “A” will be baseload supply and demand that flows all year directly from production to consumption. You can think of it as being about 1/3 of supply and demand. On a rate basis it is but on a total volume basis it is higher, because it flows 365 days per year.

Block “C” will be supply that flows only from storage in the winter directly to consumers. On a rate basis it is also about 1/3 of demand but on a volume basis is much smaller than block “A” because it only flows for 151 days a year.

Block “B” is interesting, because in the summer it represents gas that is flowing from production into storage. This is how the storage reserves are filled up. But in the winter this block is not flowing into storage, it is flowing directly to the market. Block B can thus be thought of as an equal amount to block C in the winter, such that the total gas available directly from production in the winter is block A plus block B, but in the summer is block A minus block B.

Thus, winter supplies are Block A + B + C, with A + B both coming directly from production. Only block C comes from storage in the winter.

Put another way, winter supply is A+B+C, while summer supply is A + B – C, which nets to only block A, since block B & C are of equal magnitude.

Thus, when storage is full, if there is no production, in this case much of it coming from Russia, storage only has 1/3 of the total volume that will be required to get through a winter. It is nowhere near enough.

I have left out the calculations of rate. The 1/3 of winter supply held in storage cannot be produced at the full 3/3 daily rate of demand, even if the total volume were sufficient.

And of course in the summer storage must be refilled by block B. Block B is not available if Block A isn’t. Thus, the prospect for spring is limited supply, no gas in storage, and no way to refill it. The prospects for next winter are thus even worse.

The long and the short of it is that storage is not a substitute for supply. To get through winter, you need all 3 blocks, A + B + C, of which only one, block C, is storage.

We are just weeks away from observing this reality. There is no prospect of avoiding it. The war cannot be resolved in the timeframe required, and even if it could North Stream remains out of service.

Fortunately, natural gas does not make up 100% of Europe’s energy supply, and Russia does not make up 100% of the natural gas portion. The numbers are closer to 33% and 40%, meaning the total shortfall of total energy is only around 13%. But oil is getting scarce too. Reversion to coal can only do so much. Nuclear will be slow to restore. And of course the dependency on Russian energy varies by country. Norway, for example, will be largely unaffected. Germany, on the other hand, is in trouble.

#33 The Original Jake on 11.15.22 at 4:04 pm

Close friend of mine strongly believes that foreign buyers are the cause of high home prices, yet I reminded him that he has 2 brothers between them with 7 total properties, 1 each that they live in and 5 rentals. Canadian residents for half a century. I know others too, all born here, with multiple properties. Politicians do whatever buys them votes.

#34 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 4:10 pm

#9 Shawn

NXF.TO Top 10 Holdings (64.14% of Total Assets), Market Cap $Billion

Ecopetrol SA ADR = 21.309
Occidental Petroleum Corp = 67.469
Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras ADR = 388.22
Equinor ASA ADR = 112.975
Pioneer Natural Resources Co = 62.25
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd = 91.62
ConocoPhillips = 167.335
EOG Resources Inc = 86.528
Exxon Mobil Corp = 469.732
Hess Corp = 46.003

YTD Daily Total Return = 46.46%

I like my yeah oil numbers BETTER than yours.

Mine pay $$$.

Anecdotes pay NADA.

—————

Then there is this Mkt Cap which tells you Mr. Market can be full of $sh!t at times …

TSLA = $613.93B
GM = $57.17B

– TSLA 3rd quarter of 2022 amounted to just over 343,800 units (GM 2,217,832 in 2021)

Expect it & cohorts to keep going down …

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-vehicles-are-not-reliable-yet-consumer-reports-202238972.html

As in all things new and shiny, they lose their lustre soon enough.

#35 Yukon Elvis on 11.15.22 at 4:11 pm

Canadian Defence Minister Anita Anand said Tuesday afternoon that she is in contact with Polish authorities over reports that two people were killed when Russian missiles hit the NATO ally.

https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-396402-5-.htm#396402

#36 PeterfromCalgary on 11.15.22 at 4:12 pm

While inflation is coming down a lot of people are having difficulty keeping up with today’s prices. Credit card debt is up 15% in the US. In Canada the average credit card debt is also at record highs.

People in both countries are struggling to keep up with high prices and borrowing on high interest credit cards is an act of desperation that will only make them worse off. That is just sad.

https://globalnews.ca/news/9241041/canada-credit-card-debt-inflation-survey/

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/household-debt-soars-at-fastest-pace-in-15-years-as-credit-card-use-surges-fed-report-says.html

#37 earthboundmisfit on 11.15.22 at 4:13 pm

The Hammer situation, vis-a-vis The Greenbelt, is going to be interesting. Public resistance has gone from a simmer to a boil. I have to wonder just how much of this is just Dougie-the-Dim seeking to wreak vengeance on Andrea for the years of “nails on a chalkboard” whining at Queen’s Park.

#38 Faron on 11.15.22 at 4:13 pm

#22 Ustabe on 11.15.22 at 3:32 pm

Sounds like a fun circuit. Agreed, there’s nothing like looking over a vast mountainscape after a hard-won summit regardless of the grade. If it was hard for you, that’s all that matters.

My hardest climb was the North Face of Mt. Fay. Fay is one of the peaks above Moraine Lake (fun fact, not actually a moraine-dammed lake). The approach is a stunning class 3-4 scramble with a step of easy class 5 rock up onto a glacier and onward to an ACC hut. Our climb was up a steep snow/ice couloir that we group soloed. Self-guided.

http://www.cirrusalpineguides.com/activity/route/north-face-rothkallen-route

Has now been skied despite greater than 50 degree steepness. Almost as dangerous as a Mt. Benson Luge Run or even Surrey.

I like technical rock and mountaineering, but don’t have the stomach for the harder stuff. Too scared. Nowadays, I much prefer to go for a long long run-hike in the mountains and/or a backpack. The sub-alpine is much prettier anyway.

PS: double check those elevations before the vultures pounce. There’s not much in BC approaching 14,000′. Mt. Robson is the highest peak in the BC interior and is just under 13,000 feet.

#39 yvr_lurker on 11.15.22 at 4:16 pm

More misinformation. (a) The government does not set interest rates and (b) US houses are 40% cheaper than ours. Why would they flock here? Canadians caused this issue. You are misled by envy, not guided by logic. – Garth
——

CB of course sets interest rates. The distinction between central bank and the Gov’t is meaningless in this context.
Where exactly did I say that U.S. citizens will be flocking to buy our houses? There are many wealthy elite worldwide (Asia, India, Middle-East,Hong Kong, Europe) who may likely view our real estate as being “affordable” and well-priced in their context if the prices here decline and the dollar goes south against their currencies. I didn’t say a word about the U.S.
Moreover, if the U.S. bans Canadians from purchasing their real estate it is their decision and would not affect the vast majority of local people just trying to make a go of it in Canada.

#40 Grasshopper on 11.15.22 at 4:26 pm

Seems a majority of Canadians (in Atlantic Canada, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta – where most homes are not worth $1 million) are in favour of a surtax …

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/majority-of-canadians-in-favour-of-taxing-homes-over-1m-survey-1.1846804

Like you said, Garth, the best tax is a tax that other people have to pay.

Another tax. Sigh

#41 cramar on 11.15.22 at 4:32 pm

The worst—absolutely THE WORST—thing about having a dog is that they die far too early!

#42 Steve French on 11.15.22 at 4:34 pm

“Forever home” … lol…

If you’re 50 years old you maybe have about 25 more years in your house. If you’re lucky.

Then it’s off to the old folks home and then your funeral.

Lots of people pass away in their 60s.

You don’t get to take your “forever house” with you to the pearly gates…

#43 Emma on 11.15.22 at 4:36 pm

The war is affecting Poland.

Expect a huge demand for safe,stable and Canadian housing in the near future.

Doug Ford is a forward thinker. When the war expands into Europe, many will flee to Canada as we will survive nuclear war.

#44 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 4:37 pm

#135 yvr-lurker
Many of us who work for a living, would much prefer lower income taxes and higher taxes on capital gains from investments. This would allow more people to climb the ladder, rather than reward those who somehow by their effort or from inheritances have already made it, and live off their investments with a substantially reduced tax burden. Not at all reasonable in my view.
————————
Much agree.
Had this discussion with my partner, who’s big time into investments.
It centred on investment tax credits, which in my opinion unfairly favour the investor.
Was a Sozi vs Capita kinda discussion.
Agreed to disagree.
They say:
Opposites attract.
It’s true.

#45 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 4:37 pm

22 Ustabe – I’m a bit confused about your numbers. There are no peaks over 12000 feet in the Purcells, and none in the BC interior over 13000.

Or are you trying to one-up (two-up?) someone?

And what’s with the feet??

“You are gently yet powerfully reminded of how
inconsequential you really are.”

I bet :)

#46 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 4:43 pm

#39 yvr_lurker

Middle-East,Hong Kong, Europe) who may likely view our real estate as being “affordable” and well-priced in their context if the prices here decline and the dollar goes south against their currencies.

——————

What a crock.

Ya, the Elites are going to put money into a Cdn asset that lost near 5% Qtr 1 to Qtr 2 2022 or $417 Billion TOTAL in Canada. And will without a doubt lose more by 3rd Qtr.

No Hail Mary Pass for you YVR RE.

And the Rates Fun has just begun. High Rates ↑ = RE Prices ↓

And if your Elites are money launderers using RE if I were them I’d find some other country that was more welcoming as well – that’s for sure.

#47 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 4:44 pm

#38 Faron

Post on Twitter or Facebook.

#48 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 4:45 pm

#90 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 11:39 am
Hmm. 2022 world cup
Canada yes
Italy, Austria no
Funny dat.
Thought some posters might need reminding.
————————-
No need to remind.
I’m on top of it.
Italy, yes a surprise.
Austria,no. Not good enough.
Actually, Austria was a powerhouse (Das WunderTeam) in soccer in the 30s, and after “Der Anschluss”, Hitler ordered the best Austrian players amalgamated into the German Team.
The best Austrian player refused.
Was opposed to the occupation.
A sport star with principles, could have possible been sent to an Konzentration Lager.
Very rare these days.

#49 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 4:48 pm

9 Shawn

“Canada Produces Only 5% of World Oil demand!”
———————————————————

I bet a surprising number of us knew that Shawn – those figures are really easy to remember.

Maybe try this exercise. Assuming the US wants to secure its oil supply, let’s assume they “invade” Canada.

Using currently proven reserves, and current consumption in both countries, how many years are we good for?

#50 Editrix on 11.15.22 at 4:53 pm

There’s a laneway development in Toronto’s Upper Beach – it’s still being built, so I’m not sure if it’s going to be four two storey townhouses or eight apartments. It’s behind a rental building which must have been someone’s mansion about 120 years ago. The whole thing looks cramped, trying to put as many units on the property as possible. Hopefully none of the new tenants have cars as there is nowhere to park. Slums of the future.

#51 wallflower on 11.15.22 at 4:56 pm

Rental listings in this southern Ontariowe city are getting interesting. Overall volume remains all time high. DOM grows longer… and now, entire houses are competing with newbuild townhouses and newbuild condo apartments – all in the same price range! With the houses offering yards, parking and lots of space and the condo apts in the 550 to 1000 sq ft range with townhouses sitting in mid-space.

Up until about 3 months ago, there was a clear line between all three offer categories. Bleeding into each other now.

Clearly some of the recent home buyers are sweating as they are trying to rent either the upper or the lower (or both) and clearly cannot find qualified tenants.
Never seen so many units on rental; and this is a slower time of year.

#52 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 4:58 pm

48 Ponz

“No need to remind.”
—————————————

Actually wanted to remind others as you seemed super grouchy last post.

Now it’s between living in Surrey or not being able to
climb Mt Benson this week.

I’m good with normal grouchy :)

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 4:58 pm

#93 IHCTD9 on 11.15.22 at 12:04 pm
#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 11:06 am
#80 Ihtcd99
I thought you like to live dangerously.
Tuff guy and such.
Anyway, if you ever come to Surrey, You can stay in my bunker.
And you can borrow a bullet proof vest, if you dare to venture out.
Cars are very expensive in Surrey, because you have to bullet proof them, too.
No place for softies from the East.
___

I appreciate the bunker space offer, and indeed it must be one of very high quality. But I doubt I’d ever venture into the southern end of BC for any reason, and definitely not bloody (literally) Surrey of all places. Prince Rupert still appeals, and the fishing up there too.

Also, no one is bullet-proofing their car in Surrey based on recent headlines.
—————————-
Well, anyway, my offer stands.
And BTW, people living in European Countries close to Russia and Ukraine are building bunkers like crazy.
But there’s a shortage of expert craftsmen.
How about you jumping on a plane over the Ocean, and offer your services.
I hear the pay is good.
And you may just take a Bullet Train to Amsterdam and visit your ancestral home in Friesland.
May never come back.

#54 Bankrupting Landlords is good for the Economy on 11.15.22 at 5:00 pm

Forcing cities to add density,on the long run, might be a very good thing for YVR and Toronto. Here’s my reasoning:

– People who live in plexes pay less for heating/energy.
– We’ll see more “interclass living” where families from different economic classes will live closer together.
– It’ll force cities to have better transit.
– Desirability in Van and Tor will plunge. That’s very good because our culture might change and stop at last fetishizing/worshipping urban living. For millennials that would be a very good change.
– Tenants will have more choice on where to live.
– Better for climate change.
– Makes it a better political environment for the implementation of a home equity tax.
– And more…

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 5:00 pm

47 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 4:44 pm
#38 Faron

Post on Twitter or Facebook.
—————
The pox on both of them.

#56 Freedom First on 11.15.22 at 5:01 pm

I saw it all happening a few decades ago. Canadians thought the 1st World Countries would be bringing up the 3rd World Countries to 1st world levels. The opposite was happening. Only now it’s obvious.

Freedom First

#57 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 5:08 pm

#32 Maths are hard

Dear A + B + C:

The EU is full up on nat gas. There are LNG tankers lined up at ports that are setting sail for other ports of call, not in the EU.

Europe now has so much natural gas that prices just dipped below zero – Oct 26

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/26/energy/europe-natural-gas-prices-plunge/index.html

and for that big nat gas gauge, better than A + B + C:

95.5% of EU gas storage is filled – Nov 13
https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/EUROPE-GAS/zdvxozxzopx/

And, as far as oil goes almost all have more emergency stocks on hand than required and that is not counting oil stocks with refiners etc.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:18-10-oil-stock-V2-web-em.png

Take note of your “in trouble” Germany. As for Norway most of their energy is from Hydro …

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-consumption-by-source-and-region?stackMode=absolute&country=~NOR

And they pump/compress a whack of fossil fuels to Europa + Brexit

https://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/?attachment_id=23621

——————–

Europa is fine, A + B + C included.

#58 DER on 11.15.22 at 5:09 pm

Garth, many times you have made a strong argument that foreign buyers have not inflated our real estate values. I live in BC and know all to well the effect of wealthy Chinese buyers in the more high end neighbourhoods, particularly in Vancouver.
What really happened during say 2000 to 2015 or so is that Chinese businesspeople had numerous, strong goals in their desire to buy residential homes in high value residential neighbourhoods in Vancouver. Number one was so they could move their families here to take advantage of (a) a ridiculous Conservative Government policy which allowed foreigners to lend money to the Fed in order to green light admission for themselves and their families (b) providing education and health care to their families cheaply , not to mention the lifestyle advantages and (c) perhaps most importantly, to place their cash in the safest tax free “bank vault” they knew to ensure if something went wrong in China they had an out.
So the local family wishing to buy a home in these neighbourhoods often had to compete with all cash offers or offers beyond asking in order to have a chance. Sure, you can say they didn’t have to compete but the “locals” also had a “traditional” desire to bring their families up in these neighbourhoods so the competition was on. This lasted for many years and pushed prices way beyond where they would have been without the foreign competition. While I agree with you on many of your opinions I will never agree that that foreign competition in Vancouver never had any effect on prices here.

#59 Faron on 11.15.22 at 5:12 pm

#47 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 4:44 pm
#38 Faron

Post on Twitter or Facebook.

Sorry Lave Tubes, I don’t have an account on either “service”. But, I guess this means you will be saving your Italia-is-better-than-the-world comments or @bsant54?

_______________________________________________________________

#45 Dr V (is for vulture?) on 11.15.22 at 4:37 pm

22 Ustabe – I’m a bit confused about your numbers. There are no peaks over 12000 feet in the Purcells, and none in the BC interior over 13000.

Hey, Dr V! One way to approach Ustabe’s comment would be to take a passive aggressive dig (enough with the “I’m confused about” bullshit) at the mostly irrelevant mistakes of elevation while tossing in a backhanded insult. That is the way that you chose.

Or! You as someone who likes to ramble hills could relate to how Ustabe once enjoyed rambling a few mountains in the Purcells and, possibly, return with your own story. That would be constructive. And interesting. And positive.

Instead, you have fallen for the hollow comfort in factions today and in the past few. And just a couple of weeks ago you were extolling the 60 minutes show on the issues with social media and our overwrought online lives.

#60 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 5:16 pm

#48 Ponzius Pilatus

Don’t even get me going on the Azzurri.

We were eliminated by, drum roll:

North Macedonia

All of Italia next day scrambling to Google Maps to find out where that is.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Moldova/@46.957721,26.1415594,7z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x40c97c3628b769a1:0x258119acdf53accb!8m2!3d47.411631!4d28.369885

As for Austria, they’ll crater like they always do. All show, no go.

Here is the Österreich Juggernaut …

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_%E2%80%93_UEFA_Group_F

At least they beat Moldova and the Faroe Islands which is more than I can say for Italia.

#61 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 5:21 pm

#59 Faron

Amygdala hijack no where is sight.

yeah Faron Frontal Lobes.

I get to tease once in awhile. Paleo Privilege.

#62 Linda on 11.15.22 at 5:24 pm

RIP Rusty. Looked like one happy pup:)

The ‘us vs. them’ split in how to handle housing continues. A survey regarding adding on yet another tax to houses valued over $1 million saw the majority of respondents on board with the idea. The idea was heavily favored especially if the taxes collected went towards reducing income taxes on the middle & low income earners; was used to build ‘affordable’ housing or otherwise handed over to the disenfranchised masses for whom home ownership will never occur at the elevated levels they desire. Note: the approval rating for such a tax dipped (though still 1 in 2 were for it) in locales where million dollar plus valued housing was prevalent, like Vancouver.

About green space – yes, we all deeply desire to live in a concrete jungle. Climate change? Who cares as long as I/we can own? More practically, we need to stop wasting all that roof space & turn it into green space. If we are bound to cover every square inch of earth with buildings, we have to put green space somewhere to offset the carbon hit.

#63 yvr_lurker on 11.15.22 at 5:28 pm

#46

What a crock.

Ya, the Elites are going to put money into a Cdn asset that lost near 5% Qtr 1 to Qtr 2 2022 or $417 Billion TOTAL in Canada. And will without a doubt lose more by 3rd Qtr.
—–
Maybe you should learn how to read more carefully. When the interest rate increases have run their course and prices stabilize at some new lower level (that is still too high for 90% of Canadians), these homes could easily be seen as a good asset to purchase by those wealthy offshore citizens who will benefit from our tanking Canadian dollar. Not now, but if we don’t make a closed system, in a few years since could easily be the scenario.

#64 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 5:29 pm

Sorry, somewhere in there is N. Macedonia …

https://www.google.com/maps/place/North+Macedonia/@41.12,22.236,8z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x1354159f70bc4809:0xe0f25ad6c81fc5b1!8m2!3d41.608635!4d21.745275

Still pi$$ed off at the Azzurri. All these little pi$$ ant “M’ countries confusing.

#65 Steven Rowlandson on 11.15.22 at 5:33 pm

“In six weeks, Canada will ban anybody not a citizen or PR from buying a house. It’s the latest, and most profound, dumb move by politicians who are staggering through a housing crisis that’s really a financial one.”

Now to ban mortgage insurance and make my definition of the three years pay rule the law concerning what the price limits of home should be and we will be on the road to fiscal and moral sanity in this country.
A home is a place to live, it isn’t an investment.

#66 Rook on 11.15.22 at 5:36 pm

In Europe, owing to the population, there’s no pand left. So “renter for life, with no hope of ever owning or building anything” is a fact of life, and has been for decades or more.

Canada has incredibly expensive real estate, a much lower population, and also a “renter for life, with no hope of ever owning or building anything.” I’m left to conclude that the main reason for this is that, very kuch like Europe, there must be no land left on which to build.

#67 American Rental House Investor on 11.15.22 at 5:39 pm

Bottom line Canaidans and foreigners that paid too much for a house in Canada are screwed. Buy 20 houses add as many as suites as local zoning allows in USA instaed of the money needed to buy one house in Canada, even if more suites are allowed per house the economics still favour USA markets by a twenty to one margin. Canada is ridicuously overpriced. Have 20 plus rent checks comin in every month instead of just one to a few in Canada. That is why so much money has already left for the USA and may never return. Candians condos, townhouses and houses are crashing, no one want to waste their money when they can max their returns with lower prices in the USA.

#68 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 5:43 pm

#63 yvr_lurker

Still a crock.

Careful reading of a

Non sequitur

is unnecessary. Pretty sure your Elites think so to.

#69 Foreigner / Urgent! on 11.15.22 at 5:45 pm

Garth,

Don’t get outraged.

Banning foreigners did nothing in B.C. you’ve noted and it will do nothing everywhere.

This is a nothing move meant to do nothing but pacify.

Leadership has become mostly about appearances, not about logic or reason.

Soon it will be like electric utility workers in Cuba. They don’t want to be promoted or chosen to lead because they don’t want the liabilities and blame to be on them for a badly broken system.

#70 DON on 11.15.22 at 5:47 pm

#17 PeterfromCalgary on 11.15.22 at 3:21 pm
Really positive news from the US today in it’s fight against inflation. The producers price index (PPI) for October which was expected to rise at 0.4% for October only rose 0.2%. Last week the US CPI also came in lower then expected.

*********
Really POSITIVE is when I see current prices declining a lot on food and gas and the other necessities and non-necessities. Everything else is just noise.

#71 JR on 11.15.22 at 5:50 pm

My wife and I are professionals. We rent a 3 bed/2bath apartment in a purpose-built apartment building.

Everyone at my work thinks I’m crazy for not owning a home. Somehow, we survive with our little simpleton lives.

When out for lunch a few months ago, one colleague told me he didn’t have a savings account, another one was complaining about the high cost of lunch and the fact he can’t save any money (making six figures in a Prairie city).

I plow all of my money into index based ETFs. Rent is 17% of net monthly income.

We have to let go of this idea that a detached SFH home is the only measure of success in life.

#72 IHCTD9 on 11.15.22 at 5:51 pm

Ahh, when the topic of housing costs comes up, it’s never long before the conversation turns to immigration.

500K per year sucks, I agree. But I don’t object, because it’s not even enough. By 2036, we’re looking at 2 workers for every retired person. That’s just not going to work. 50 years ago, it was 7:1. Do you plan on retiring? Would you like health care, government services, and your govy DBP paid? CPP and OAS? GIS? Again, it sucks, but this is why it’s happening. Way too many retirees (5+ million more by the end of 2029), and no kids. We did it to ourselves, now we reap it.

We really actually need 1 million newcomers every year to account for the 35-40% (likely soon even higher) losses we can expect. But I don’t think we can do it. I think socially and infrastructure wise, we’re well tapped out at 500K, but that obviously ain’t enough. We waited way too long to deal with our flagging age and labour force demographics, so now we need outrageous quantities of newcomers – really, too many to absorb in an organic fashion via the model we employ. We are already getting a few glimpses of what lies ahead.

We’ve been selling a cultural mosaic, not a melting pot. The problem is this mosaic exists in only a handful of cities across Canada. That pitch is going to have to change, there are limits. If there is no case for immigrants to move into the boondocks of Canada, then they will do so only as escapees of Urban Canada when living standards finally sink so low, that moving into the sticks starts looking better than staying in the once comfy ethno/national burbs in our big cities. It’s already started. Pay attention, a sinful amount of newly arrived young unsupported singles are already working two jobs trying to make a go of it. I talk with them 5 days per week.

So, Trillions worth of debt meets a frantic scramble to import our replacement work force in a globalized world. Everyone who put a lifetime of labour into this country should be concerned. It really is a Ponzi scheme, and your retirement as you understand it right now, depends on mega-boatloads of immigrants. It sucks, but you need to choose. Huge immigration, or a terminal deterioration of the social safety net and your entitlements.

#73 Wrk.dover on 11.15.22 at 5:52 pm

I have a foreign millennial neighbor that came in on a work visa with his three children and spouse.

Couldn’t establish CDN credit so paid $95,000 cash for his house here, pre covid and travels back and forth to his ‘old country’ where he has fourteen employees doing trade work on luxury properties.

He now has PR status and is out of country one day short of six months/year, to make a living.

If he could have previously had a mortgage, he would have settled in the GTA with the herd, as there is no call for his occupation locally.

Remains to be seen, what is next for him.

Really nice guy! Best neighbor ever.

#74 "NUTS!" on 11.15.22 at 5:54 pm

#58 DER

Like you, I agree with much that Garth articulates on this, his forum. But also like you, I have a different perspective on the affect foreign buyers have had on YVR properties. I have the luxury of belonging to a family of property developers who have been in business for over 50 years in the Lower Mainland. Even remotely offering such a notion to them is met with ridicule and laughter, followed by their statistics on exactly who they’ve sold their newly constructed homes to. I can only imagine that somehow this is lost in the statistical data and how we measure foreign versus domestic buyers. And yes, I’m respectful to acknowledge that a Canadian is a Canadian, regardless of their tenure.

#75 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 5:56 pm

#105 Wishbone on 11.15.22 at 5:02 pm
@Ponz
What’s with calling me a mechikan and my country Mechiko. It sounds incredibly stupid. You sound like a pendejo tourist that “Mexico” doesn’t need. Oh but you go where the “ mechikans “live aren’t we so lucky. People like DonG are welcomed in this country you can stay home!
————————-
You can keep The Don.
Alberta will be a better place without him.
And other unnamed posters on this blog.

#76 YVR 60% Crash on 11.15.22 at 5:59 pm

“Canada will ban anybody not a citizen or PR from buying a house. It’s the latest, and most profound”

Better late than never.

“anti-foreigner tax”

A foreigner is a foreigner. It’s got nothing to do with anti-Chinese. German, Swedish, Italian, Chinese etc … are all foreigner.

#77 Foreign Buyers on 11.15.22 at 6:05 pm

I thought even the IQ 85 people who think 6% of real estate buyers determine prices would have figured out by now that just because the people you see in West Van have Asian features it does not make them foreignors.

My Asian friend who lives there has been in Canada for 50 years and is not just a citizen, as an MD he’s done more for this country than all the whiners who can’t compete with smart, ambitious people ever will.

All the data shows actual foreign buyers are a small percentage of the real estate market.

Next time you see someone who doesn’t look like you try and remember they might be the children of my Asian buddy. That makes them as Canadian as you are.

Yup, they are students and they drive pretty nice cars, thanks to dad.

Wish we had more of them and less of you smooth brained you know whats.

#78 yvr_lurker on 11.15.22 at 6:07 pm

#68 Soren Angst

Still a crock.
—————
From where you are retired in some town in Italy with some great tax break, what goes on in Canada is probably none of your concern. However, for the next generation trying to make a go out of it Canada, what goes on in Canada and the policies the Gov’t sets is actually rather important. Go back to sending us little posts of village life in some little town where a cafe latte is $1.50. It is super-interesting to us all.

#79 Linda on 11.15.22 at 6:10 pm

#2 – you make an excellent point. Densification is being pushed by the local municipality where I live & yes, there is an increased impact on infrastructure. So now there are fees being charged to developers who are transforming SFH lots into multifamily developments, as the $ to upgrade the sewer, storm & water systems to handle the increased load weren’t part of the municipal budget.

#66 – there isn’t a lack of land per se. What there IS a lack of is land handy to all those much cherished amenities, such land generally already has buildings on it. The true cost comes down to infrastructure. Toronto proper is over 630 square kilometers in area; the GTA is some 7,124 square kilometers in area. That is a LOT of infrastructure to keep in good condition. Forget about the cost of houses, if you want to see lots of zeros attached to a bill take a look at what infrastructure costs. Densification is seen as the solution to controlling, at least in part, the ever growing bill to maintain/replace said infrastructure & thus prevent municipal budgets vaporizing, leaving politicians with no option but to raise taxes. Which they do anyway, but since they do want to be re-elected at least try to limit the raising of. Because if it becomes too much, folks will pull up stakes & depart. Detroit is a grim example of what occurs when ones tax base disappears.

#80 Mike in Cowtown on 11.15.22 at 6:12 pm

“One generation is being enslaved. Another enriched. Wake up.”

Well said. Eventually the majority of voters will be young people living in mom’s basement. When that happens all the policies that pump up the RE bubble will finally burst.

#81 T Rex and the dinosaur clique on 11.15.22 at 6:13 pm

DELETED (Hysterical)

#82 XEQT and chill on 11.15.22 at 6:23 pm

Just another tax PP will scrap when he’s elected PM in 2025 to boost our economy.

#83 KLNR on 11.15.22 at 6:31 pm

@#27 yvr_lurker on 11.15.22 at 3:47 pm
Foreign buying has been pretty much at zero levels since 2020, and guess what happened to prices? Banning others is just a kneejerk action of bad faith. Wait until the Yanks do it to us and see how much chaos this mentality causes. – Garth
—-
You know the reason and we have had this discussion previously. Interest rates were set to zero by Gov’t as an over-reaction to Covid. Now that prices may be coming down by higher rates, do we want to allow citizens of other countries to purchase local houses as they find them cheaper than our local citizens do as a result of our Canadian dollar decreasing? No… closed system, and indeed my mind is closed shut on this topic.

More misinformation. (a) The government does not set interest rates and (b) US houses are 40% cheaper than ours. Why would they flock here? Canadians caused this issue. You are misled by envy, not guided by logic. – Garth

Bingo.
should be banning old stock canadians from leveraging their primary residence to purchaset 3 and 4 investment properties.

#84 Penny Henny on 11.15.22 at 6:47 pm

#103 Faron on 11.15.22 at 2:10 pm

TL;DR I’ll take ethically intact disrespect over polite discourse with ethically fraught humans any day of the week.

////////////////

Why is it you always have to explain for your anti social behavior.
Who ever raised you did a piss poor job.

Ya I know Garth.
DELETE

Seriously though this guy is a cancer.

#85 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 6:48 pm

2 WTF

“What about parking/ water/ sewer/ power infrastructure. Wont cities need to beef up all those services before wholesale development in every neighborhood where 4 families supplant one?”
———————————————————-

Maybe I can help explain how it is supposed to work in BC WTF.

Local governments can levy “Development Cost
Charges” at the time of development, which may be the time of subdivision, or the time of unit construction. They have to do their homework because money collected goes into separate accounts for those
specific purposes that require future upgrading.

So if you add a “laneway” house, there will be separate line items for each of those services PLUS you still have to pay for the service to be physically installed.

Now there was an interesting and alarming case in Kelowna(?) where they tried to charge a developer for sewer, but his subdivision was septic, so no burden was added to the existing sewer system.

The judge determined the fees were of a “general application” nature which seemed to be completely against the intent of the legislation. No idea if it was appealed.

#86 IHCTD9 on 11.15.22 at 6:57 pm

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 4:58 pm
#93 IHCTD9 on 11.15.22 at 12:04 pm

Well, anyway, my offer stands.
And BTW, people living in European Countries close to Russia and Ukraine are building bunkers like crazy.
But there’s a shortage of expert craftsmen.
How about you jumping on a plane over the Ocean, and offer your services.
I hear the pay is good.
And you may just take a Bullet Train to Amsterdam and visit your ancestral home in Friesland.
May never come back.
————

Sorry to disappoint Ponzie, but I was born right here in Canada, I got no desire to visit NLD. I don’t speak the language (other than the cuss words), and I don’t really know the culture. In fact, all I know is the food. Druppies, Oliebollen, Rusks (with Hagelslag or that pink/white stuff yo!) Botterkoek, Boerenkool etc.. but, I can get all that right here. They’ll have to build their own bunkers.

#87 Penny Henny on 11.15.22 at 6:58 pm

Just for fun.
I’m guessing that Sailo and Faron are either Aires or Leos

#88 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 6:58 pm

I recommend reading one of the yearly reports from
demographia. They establish a strong relationship between restrictive development policies and housing bubbles.

They have argued that a time lag of longer than 2 years
from the developer’s decision to proceed to the completion of the development prevents a timely response to market conditions. This results in pent-up demand raising prices, followed by a burst of activity and product which deflates the bubble.

#89 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 6:59 pm

#52 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 4:58 pm
48 Ponz

“No need to remind.”
—————————————

Actually wanted to remind others as you seemed super grouchy last post.

Now it’s between living in Surrey or not being able to
climb Mt Benson this week.

I’m good with normal grouchy :)
——————
Nothing to do with being grouchy.
Lazy, uninformed posters have to be called out.
Don’t be the next.

#90 Observer on 11.15.22 at 7:09 pm

Statistics Canada is expected to release its October report on the consumer price index on Wednesday, and economists are warning Canada’s annual inflation rate likely ticked higher.

BMO is forecasting the annual inflation rate was 7.2% , up from 6.9% in September, while RBC also expects inflation rose slightly, estimating 7.0%.

https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-markets/economists-warn-canadas-inflation-rate-likely-ticked-higher-in-october/

#91 NameRightHere on 11.15.22 at 7:17 pm

Housing, healthcare, gun violence it’s all the same. Pay for white papers to be produced that conclude your ideas won’t solve the problem then ignore them and make the announcement you were always going to anyway. It’s not about solving the problem it’s the appearance of doing something. Even something you know won’t work.
The high house prices have driven rent prices up to where people can’t afford them either. People at the other end of the hall pay over $500 more for the exact same apartment as mine. I’ve been here almost 20 years though. My apartment isn’t worth what I’m paying.

#92 Yukon Elvis on 11.15.22 at 7:20 pm

The majority of Canadian residents are calling for a surtax on homes valued above $1 million amid high housing costs, according to a Generation Squeeze survey.
A survey released on Monday found 62 per cent of respondents would support a “modest surtax” on homes valued above $1 million, which makes up 10 per cent of Canada’s housing market.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/majority-of-canadians-in-favour-of-taxing-homes-over-1m-survey-1.1846804

#93 Foggy on 11.15.22 at 7:22 pm

Just watched the news, had real estate guy on talking about latest released housing data:

– housing has bottomed
– market will trade sideways now
– great time to buy

All is good!

#94 Maths are hard on 11.15.22 at 7:25 pm

#57 Søren Angst on 11.15.22 at 5:08 pm

Not for your sake, but for the sake of those who may want to understand the maths:

Yes European storage is quite full. But even 100% full, it only represents about 1/3 what they need to get through winter. And then they have to fill it up again next summer.

All of the LNG tankers parked in Europe represent at best a few days worth of supplies. The reason they aren’t being unloaded is that there aren’t enough gasification facilities. This is stated in the CNN article.

Those LNG tankers were diverted from Asia. So the problem has merely been shifted for now.

Oil storage at refineries is in the operational range. It is not significant. It is enough to keep them from having to shut down the refineries in-between shipments.

Nobody has as much oil in reserve as the US. They currently have a 50 day supply and it is falling fast.

And you should reread the CNN article you site. A one hour spot price in one location in one country is an operational problem, not a market trend. Instead, look at the futures.

A 13% reduction in European energy supplies this winter will not be the end of the world. Fears of people freezing to death are overblown. However, prices will be very high and economic activity will be strongly impacted. And if supplies are not restored, the problem compounds for next winter, as storage will be empty come April.

#95 pBrasseur on 11.15.22 at 7:27 pm

#72 IHCTD9 500K per year sucks, I agree. But I don’t object, because it’s not even enough. By 2036, we’re looking at 2 workers for every retired person.

That’s because, as any demographic professor would tell you, immigration does not slow population aging, no more than it solves labour shortages, you could take a million you’d still have the same ratio, only even more chaos and stressed public services.

Immigration is indeed the foundation of this country, it is a great thing our at least should be. But 500K per year is delirium from an insane ideological faction that wants to radically change our society.

Economically the only benefit this level of immigration bring is to prop demand and nominal growth to help fund big government when organic economic growth obviously can’t.

In other words it is just yet another way to kick the can down the road. It is no more sustainable than money printing and ever growing debt.

#96 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 7:32 pm

44 Ponz 1365 Lurker

“Was a Sozi vs Capita kinda discussion.
Agreed to disagree.”
—————————————————

Yeah, it can be a tough one. But I’ve walked both sides of the road now

Years of paying my accountant to minimize realized income and hence taxes. Used every tool available to me – a corp, RRSPs, income “sharing”……

Now its emailing my advisor. Tax loss sales, foreign dividend withholding tax, RRIF sharing…..

I honestly dont find it much different. It’s still a game, and CRA will eventually win.

#97 Jen Jon on 11.15.22 at 7:37 pm

One reason sales are way down is the crash in Chinese real estate. Investors there have been wiped out and can’t borrow against ghost money ( banks have collapsed) to fund the move to Canada. There are a lot of disgruntled Chinese who are sleeping in unfinished abandoned high rises. The Evergrande story is only one of many.

Yes, immigration is still running hot. Immigrants aren’t foreigners and ergo : buy houses. Mr Trudeau has green lit 500,000 new arrivals, plus extended families, who will all need to sleep somewhere. The sources of those monies aren’t questioned the same way as they would a citizen.

Now, this trial balloon caught my eye, because of course zany ideas have to come from somewhere. Surely, we’re taxed enough? But to raise 5 billion? Towards what? Mr Trudeau drops billions on his holiday tours and those billions never benefit a single Canadian.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/majority-of-canadians-in-favour-of-taxing-homes-over-1m-survey-1.1846804

#98 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 7:41 pm

38 Faron

“There’s not much in BC approaching 14,000′. Mt. Robson is the highest peak in the BC interior and is just under 13,000 feet.”
————————————————–

But both of us knew, without even looking it up, that there was a (admittedly inconsequential) error. How many people would know these elevations off the top of their head?

Funny dat.

60 minutes has taught me to disengage. No smile for you :(

#99 Doing my Part on 11.15.22 at 7:45 pm

Warning!
Eating Coffee Crisp, drinking Pepsi and living in Surrey can result in an extremely negative attitude.

#100 Ustabe on 11.15.22 at 7:55 pm

#45 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 4:37 pm

22 Ustabe – I’m a bit confused about your numbers. There are no peaks over 12000 feet in the Purcells, and none in the BC interior over 13000.

Or are you trying to one-up (two-up?) someone?

And what’s with the feet??

“You are gently yet powerfully reminded of how
inconsequential you really are.”

I bet :)

Feet are so the neanderthals on here can get an image. Plus most of the sites I see give both measurements.

You missed the part where I said rounded a bit. You also missed the part about an old man reminiscing about some hikes he did over 40-50 years ago. Sorry if my forgetting to run to Google and fact check bothers you. It was a story, a reminiscence…

You seem to want to carry water for Sailio. There is a bit of history there that you either missed or chose to ignore. I’d be happy to fill you in on the where and how the Faron persona was created and why we are where we are today with all that. There are posters still here who wouldn’t want that history revisited so careful what you ask for. Do not confuse my stories as an attempt to one up anyone, I don’t need to one up anyone. I’m set by any metric you would chose to come up with. Any. Do not infer by anything I post that it is an alignment or endorsement of Faron either.

Until pretty recently I used to avidly read your contributions…of late you’ve been a bit of a prick. Think about that. :)

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.22 at 7:57 pm

I’m reading “Nomad Century” by Gaia Vince.

A somewhat optimistic view of the future and the millions upon millions of refugees that 1st world countries will be forced to take either because we are aging and have no kids or the amount of people coming will be unstoppable ( unless you are willing to watch ships full of illegal being sunk by our navy)
Canada is expected to have a 2:1 ratio of non Canadian born immigrants than Canadian born citizens by 2100.

Global warming will render places near the equator unlivable and Canada will have new areas to plant crops.

Get ready.

#102 VladTor on 11.15.22 at 7:58 pm

DELETED

#103 Missihippi on 11.15.22 at 7:58 pm

Owning property isn’t, indeed, a human right. But hardworking young people who have no hope in hell of ever owning a house, where kids whose parents own homes and have big savings have the luxury of inheriting or getting gifted a house, means Canada as a meritocracy is over. Not to mention the people who won the birth and housing lottery and can live off of undeserved gains for the rest of their lives. A bitter sentiment will ensue among the young, once they realize they are running on a hamster wheel fruitlessly. This malaise is the sort that starts revolts. Just ask Germany how that turned out.

Sheesh. It’s only a house. Get a grip. – Garth

#104 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 7:58 pm

Recommended for all.

https://www.johnbaldwin.ca/coast-mountains.asp

No sure if you can still get it.

in the text, the author explains how they would access
these climbs from the heads of inlets on the coast. They would immediately head for the alpine, then traverse the ridges. Walking the valley bottoms was way too difficult. Hmm. Guess what my job was?

Funny dat.

#105 Faron on 11.15.22 at 8:10 pm

#98 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 7:41 pm

38 Faron

“There’s not much in BC approaching 14,000′. Mt. Robson is the highest peak in the BC interior and is just under 13,000 feet.”
————————————————–

But both of us knew, without even looking it up, that there was a (admittedly inconsequential) error. How many people would know these elevations off the top of their head?

Funny dat.

60 minutes has taught me to disengage. No smile for you :(

Far fewer than you seem to think. My partner gets meters and feet of elevation confused all the time. I gently corrected Ustabe because I know the tiniest of errors will be held against him by commenters who are offended by his experience, kindness and generosity. You instantly proved that to be true.

I’ll take a sad no smile as a double negative — :-)

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.22 at 8:10 pm

@#83 KLNR
“…should be banning old stock canadians from leveraging their primary residence to purchaset 3 and 4 investment properties….”

+++
Dont worry.
If falling prices and rising interest rates don’t slap them smart…..the Bank foreclosures will….
:)

#107 Overheardyou on 11.15.22 at 8:23 pm

A townhouse in Markham is still selling for $1MM so I guess that’s the bottom

#108 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 8:27 pm

#99 Doing my Part on 11.15.22 at 7:45 pm
Warning!
Eating Coffee Crisp, drinking Pepsi and living in Surrey can result in an extremely negative attitude.
—————-
Totally agree.
You’ve got be a total SOB to survive.
As I mentioned before, no place for pansies.

#109 TurnerNation on 11.15.22 at 8:36 pm

Oh-oh Sail Away set off the Lunk Alarm, at Planet Fitness.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8eAj08nAFP4

———–
GEE never saw this coming! QR code lockdowns, control over movement.

https://sociable.co/government-and-policy/g20-who-vaccine-passports-digital-identity-b20/
At the B20, Indonesia’s Minister of Health Budi Gunadi Sadikin said that G20 countries should adopt a “digital health certificate using WHO standards” and that they were looking to introduce this type of vaccine passport …
“Let’s have a digital health certificate acknowledged by WHO — if you have been vaccinated or tested properly — then you can move around,” said the Indonesian health minister.

—–
—–
Two weeks to flatten the Curve. One-and-Done. Primary, Secondary Doses. How quaint was 2020-2021!
Year 4 here we go — shall we call it permanent?

.Windsor Ontario – County of Essex making masks mandatory at indoor facilities (windsor.ctvnews.ca)

.To slow the spread of childhood respiratory viruses, do we need a few weeks of mandatory masking? (globeandmail.com)

.The Registered Nurses Association of Ontario is telling the province a strong recommendation isn’t enough. It demands a province-wide mask mandate …and a new campaign to boost flu and COVID-19 vaccination. (mynewstoday.ca)

.USA: Norte Dame announces bivalent COVID-19 booster mandate (ndsmcobserver.com)

#110 Dogman01 on 11.15.22 at 8:56 pm

Garth – You are on Fire!

…your minions grow in power also

#32 Maths are hard on 11.15.22 at 4:02 pm

Thanks, anyone whom can explain complex things into models that laymen can understand has mastery of the subject.

I do not know you, but certainly will seriously ponder your perspective.

“Strong minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, weak minds discuss people.” —Socrates

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 8:58 pm

Can we just move on to things that matter.
Trump is about to announce that he’ll be running in 2024.
Get the popcorn ready.
That should be a block buster, that could tear America apart.

#112 Gen Z on 11.15.22 at 9:04 pm

Garth’s testosterone has risen:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-house-data-october-1.6651867

GTA prices down by -5% compared to last year.

I’m full up, thanks. – Garth

#113 Quintilian on 11.15.22 at 9:09 pm

“BC’s had an anti-Chinese property tax for a few years now, which has done nothing to corral prices”

The tax was challenged in court, and no, it was not directed at the Chinese and it was not intended to be racist.

Furthermore, it did corral prices, in the segment of the market which foreign investors seem to be most active.

Let me guess, you will claim I am a racist right?

Your argument comes off with a duplicitous slant.

Let’s hear it from you Garth, how would you solve the affordability crisis?
Not just with touch ups around the edges as you correctly accuse governments have done.

Simple. As stated here. End the full capital gains tax exemption on residential real estate or provide equal support to tenants. Racist laws do nothing but sully us. – Garth

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.22 at 9:13 pm

Gee.
The federal govt spent $4.5 billion dollars on homelessness.
Its worse.
And the Attorney Generals’ audit found “there doesnt seem to be a co-ordinated plan of how the deal with homelessness”
$4.5 billion….poof….gone….no coordinated plan….and its worse.

Your Liberals at the trough.

#115 Wait There on 11.15.22 at 9:14 pm

Well within ONE block from where I currently rent, 4 townhomes have been sold within three months. Market correction?
What market correction? All sold within one month. All sold ABOVE asking at outrageous prices to begin with so no lowball starter. All above 1 million. And all purchasers of the race mentioned in this blog.
Having witnessed this, I have a hard time digesting what Garth stated. So no Garth, I am one in disagreement with you.
Furthermore, I just got back from Dollarama a few minutes ago. I noticed they have a new price category. $5.
Price increases there are seriously in the 20-25% bracket. As high as 33% since I purchased an audio cable there for $3 a month or so ago and it is now $4.
Is there a pivot on the horizon? Makes me wonder about that 7.7%

We are surely a LOOOONG way from 2-3 % inflation. When we hit 5% the next step down will be so tough. It will be like being constipated in the desert. Remember the easy part is ALWAYS the start. Anything you do, you know that with experience.

#116 yvr_lurker on 11.15.22 at 9:16 pm

#96 DR V
Now its emailing my advisor. Tax loss sales, foreign dividend withholding tax, RRIF sharing…..

I honestly dont find it much different. It’s still a game, and CRA will eventually win.
———
I mean no disrespect, but I am happy that you agree that the myriad of reductions/withdrawls/sheltering (which only some paid accountant that you hire can navigate fully… thankfully, it creates a job for a local) is all a game. However, it is super-easy for Gov’t to simply raise the top marginal to 56 or 60% with no fuss and a flick of the switch. No way to avoid it. System is so messed up in my view.

#117 Dogman01 on 11.15.22 at 9:26 pm

#56 Freedom First on 11.15.22 at 5:01 pm

I saw it all happening a few decades ago. Canadians thought the 1st World Countries would be bringing up the 3rd World Countries to 1st world levels. The opposite was happening. Only now it’s obvious.

Freedom First

————————————–

That is the plan…it is obvious.

Globalist Utopia….them in charge, the rest a grey goo of “precariat” humanity. The middle class society, western values based on individual freedom must be jettisoned.

China is the model…your freedom is but chaff in the breeze.

#118 Shawn on 11.15.22 at 9:27 pm

Dollarama

#101 Wait There on 11.15.22 at 9:14 pm

Furthermore, I just got back from Dollarama a few minutes ago. I noticed they have a new price category. $5.
Price increases there are seriously in the 20-25% bracket. As high as 33% since I purchased an audio cable there for $3 a month or so ago and it is now $4.

***********************
Kudos for shopping at Dollarama. Smart shopper award. I must admit I rarely do but will try to do so more often.

Indeed yes, they had announced that new $5 price point.

Their costs have increased. Point is can you get that audio cable anyplace else at under $4? Maybe $10 at The Source?

Probably still a good time to buy Dollarama shares. They are a powerhouse. Big profits, Big taxes paid, Big employment, Lower prices than elsewhere. Win, win, win win.

#119 miketheengineer on 11.15.22 at 9:49 pm

Hey Garth:

Can you dump your money into a numbered account, set up a shell company…and use that to buy your slanty semi if you are not CDN or PR.

Just asking.

Also, they guys with more than 2 homes, likely have it set up as a company…they don’t say anything about the guys who own 100 homes or condos as a company generating revenue…etc.

If people want to they can still do it.

Stupid

#120 Faron on 11.15.22 at 9:51 pm

#101 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.22 at 7:57 pm

Global warming will render places near the equator unlivable and Canada will have new areas to plant crops.

Get ready.

As for immigration: cool. Canadians are a good-looking people and continuing to mix genetically will make the situation better. Everyone gets a hottie: it will be like Oprah with cars.

Yes, the social strife associated with climate change will be the most important issue for places like Canada where we have the space and financial ability to adapt. Moving hundreds of millions away from the steamy saunas or new deserts of the world will cause war in the places those people settle.

Here’s a paper on the topic. I can send it to Garth if you can’t access it.

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 10:04 pm

#118 Shawn on 11.15.22 at 9:27 pm
Dollarama

#101 Wait There on 11.15.22 at 9:14 pm

Furthermore, I just got back from Dollarama a few minutes ago. I noticed they have a new price category. $5.
Price increases there are seriously in the 20-25% bracket. As high as 33% since I purchased an audio cable there for $3 a month or so ago and it is now $4.

***********************
Kudos for shopping at Dollarama. Smart shopper award. I must admit I rarely do but will try to do so more often.

Indeed yes, they had announced that new $5 price point.

Their costs have increased. Point is can you get that audio cable anyplace else at under $4? Maybe $10 at The Source?

Probably still a good time to buy Dollarama shares. They are a powerhouse. Big profits, Big taxes paid, Big employment, Lower prices than elsewhere. Win, win, win win.
————-
Win, win, win.
Not so sure about that.
At the entrance and the checkouts sugary drinks (pepsi) and sugary snacks ( CoffeeCrisp) are taking pretty much up all the space.
Some of the stores are close to schools, and at lunch  break time are choke full.
And the outside is full of discarded candy wrapers and pop cans and bottles.
And many of the kids are overweight already.
What is a win for shareholders, may not be a win for society overall.
Gotta see the big picture

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.22 at 10:09 pm

@#108 Pugnacious Ponzie PooPoo’s Pansies
“Totally agree.
You’ve got be a total SOB to survive.
As I mentioned before, no place for pansies.”

+++
Was it the forced eating of Turnips or the Sauerkraut that made you so grumpy?
Hmmmm
Grumpy Ponzie……grumpy ponzie………..

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.22 at 10:15 pm

@#111 Grumpy Ponzie
“Trump is about to announce that he’ll be running in 2024.
Get the popcorn ready.”

+++
Let’s watch how many rich Republicans donate to his re-election campaign fund.
He has to win the long, nasty, expensive Republican nomination BEFORE running against the Democrat candidate.
Or lets watch the millions of MAGA hat wearing Rubes send in $5 bucks…
I’m thinkin “The Donald” may be in for a shock…
2 years after he lost….the criminal charges still hanging over his fat head……. his obnoxious style is old hat.

#124 Sail Away on 11.15.22 at 10:16 pm

Thanks for the post, Garth. ‘Tis true that Canadian RE is a delusional fiction. Houses are just not worth the relative price to income here, and it is truly the greater fool factor at play. The juice is not worth the squeeze. 10-15 years ago? Yes, barely, in some areas. Now? Pretty much a solid ‘nope’ across the board.

In my family and acquaintance group, mortgages after 40 are mostly unheard of, except in exceptional circumstances. And adults settled in careers don’t rent. Renting, much like washing dishes or working fast food, is for kids or people in trouble. Housing should cost no more than 3-4 times average income, as it is all around the US and Costa Rica. There are more expensive places, yes, but one need not choose to live where it’s expensive unless offset by higher income. Of course, there are the Venezuelan relatives in desperate circumstances, but that’s hopefully a path too far that Canada will not follow.

Here, someone mortgage-free before 40 is a unicorn. What’s a young person to do? Work long and hard to afford a moldy mushroom… or just emigrate to greener pastures? I’d vote emigrate. They didn’t create the issue, so why should they be penalized? If I were in that situation, I’d definitely be gonzo after a purely logical economic analysis.

#125 Doug t on 11.15.22 at 10:54 pm

#103 Missihippi

SWEET FANNY get a grip lol

#126 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 10:56 pm

122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.22 at 10:09 pm
@#108 Pugnacious Ponzie PooPoo’s Pansies
“Totally agree.
You’ve got be a total SOB to survive.
As I mentioned before, no place for pansies.”

+++
Was it the forced eating of Turnips or the Sauerkraut that made you so grumpy?
Hmmmm
Grumpy Ponzie……grumpy ponzie
————————-
Move to Surrey.
And you’ll understand.
You think the DownTown Eastside is bad.
But then, I don’t think you have it in you.
Old age is catching up with you.
Better stick with reading books.

#127 Don Guillermo on 11.15.22 at 11:00 pm

121 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 10:04 pm
#118 Shawn on 11.15.22 at 9:27 pm
Dollarama

#101 Wait There on 11.15.22 at 9:14 pm

Furthermore, I just got back from Dollarama a few minutes ago. I noticed they have a new price category. $5.
Price increases there are seriously in the 20-25% bracket. As high as 33% since I purchased an audio cable there for $3 a month or so ago and it is now $4.

***********************
Kudos for shopping at Dollarama. Smart shopper award. I must admit I rarely do but will try to do so more often.

Indeed yes, they had announced that new $5 price point.

Their costs have increased. Point is can you get that audio cable anyplace else at under $4? Maybe $10 at The Source?

Probably still a good time to buy Dollarama shares. They are a powerhouse. Big profits, Big taxes paid, Big employment, Lower prices than elsewhere. Win, win, win win.
————-
Win, win, win.
Not so sure about that.
At the entrance and the checkouts sugary drinks (pepsi) and sugary snacks ( CoffeeCrisp) are taking pretty much up all the space.
Some of the stores are close to schools, and at lunch break time are choke full.
And the outside is full of discarded candy wrapers and pop cans and bottles.
And many of the kids are overweight already.
What is a win for shareholders, may not be a win for society overall.
Gotta see the big picture
######
Another classic from Ponz the Surreymeister. Brags about getting cheap soda and sweets at Dollorama and then lectures others for the same. Sounds very Trudeauesqe. Gotta love that big picture.

#128 Sail Away on 11.15.22 at 11:05 pm

#100 Ustabe on 11.15.22 at 7:55 pm
#45 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 4:37 pm

You seem to want to carry water for Sailio. There is a bit of history there that you either missed or chose to ignore. I’d be happy to fill you in on the where and how the [] persona was created and why we are where we are today with all that. There are posters still here who wouldn’t want that history revisited so careful what you ask for.

—————

Ooh, tell us again! I love that creation story. Especially my role as Odin or Zeus, corrupting the moldable clay of the wide-eyed, gullible waif, thereby creating a pettily vengeful Golem, who forever vainly seeks vengeance on the untouchable and All Powerful Sail Away.

I’ve adapted it for the nephews and nieces and they especially love the bumbling clown’s ham-handed antics. I’ve also incorporated an evil, scheming uncle who’s prone to wandering around with a shirt tail out his fly or scratching his bum. Slapstick humour… for the kids.

#129 THE DANDADA on 11.15.22 at 11:10 pm

CAN’T STUMP THE TRUMP!

CAN’T STUMP THE TRUMP!

CAN’T STUMP THE TRUMP!

#130 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 11:27 pm

100 Ustabe

“Until pretty recently I used to avidly read your contributions…of late you’ve been a bit of a prick. Think about that. :) ”
—————————————————————-

Thank you for the direct response. Hopefully I have
disengaged another party.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve detected a more despondent, darker, angrier tone to this blog in general.
I do not know what the catalyst is or was.

The other day, you posted something I found odd, even creepy. But I reminded myself where I was – on this blog – and it can be very difficult to read true meanings
and intentions. In the end, I thought that you were only
joking, in a dark, dry way. I hope that is the case.

I have also discovered that it is not wise to divulge too
much personal info or experience on any website. I am not as worried about the flak or good-natured ribbing as general personal security. I dont really want people to know who I am. I also do not do any other social media.

And perspective is very important. Posters who I view as innocuous and whimsically boastful seem to deeply
offend others. I do not know why. I apologize if I offended you.

I will try in the future to read the intended audience
better and concentrate more on economics and financial matters.

Sincere happy face :)

#131 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.15.22 at 11:37 pm

#127 Don G.
Another classic from Ponz the Surreymeister. Brags about getting cheap soda and sweets at Dollorama and then lectures others for the same. Sounds very Trudeauesqe. Gotta love that big picture.
———————-
Well , that’s not nice of you.
Chastising me for enjoying about 2 litres of Pepsi and a few bars of Coffee Crisp a week.
And I always recycle the candy wrapper and the bottles.
Good night.

#132 fishman on 11.15.22 at 11:42 pm

Ponzy, You gonna eat popcorn & watch the Trumpster get beaten like an old Arab mule. He’ll be running against himself ,through a gauntlet of foes taking whacks at him. Me thinks it gets boring fast. As teenagers we worked alongside men in real good paying union jobs. Unions that were run by tough old Commies, Spanish civil war vets, 2nd Front Stalinist Canadian Army guys, Murmansk to Halifax Merchant Seamen. But they were old. Their time was up. Time for a wiser & younger man to ride away. Loyalty & integrity are fine, but its long odds going into battle with old horses that were ridden hard & put to bed wet & cold too many times. DeSantis is far more Maga than Trump, the next Russian patriot guy will be far more Duganesq than Putin. I’ll take the longer odds with a MM handicap & back some young populist nationalist stud. Back them as much as I can as long as they carry on the tradition of giving the PC/woke/BIPOC/DIE crowd the heebie-jeebies.

#133 DON on 11.15.22 at 11:43 pm

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.22 at 8:10 pm
@#83 KLNR
“…should be banning old stock canadians from leveraging their primary residence to purchaset 3 and 4 investment properties….”

+++
Dont worry.
If falling prices and rising interest rates don’t slap them smart…..the Bank foreclosures will….
:)

*******
Hey… IH, KLNR, Quint, MF and some others are crashing the awards party for the Best realtor of the Year. You in?

Ponzie will bring the snacks and TurnerNation the cold hard truth.

#134 yvr_lurker on 11.15.22 at 11:48 pm

#124
… or just emigrate to greener pastures? I’d vote emigrate. They didn’t create the issue, so why should they be penalized? If I were in that situation, I’d definitely be gonzo after a purely logical economic analysis.
——
Best post I have read from you where it shows a clear understanding of the dilemma for young Canadians trying to make a go of it. If you are ambitious and without family resources that will be passed down to you, best to head elsewhere if the prospects of owning a small home is akin to travelling to Mars. It all reminds me of when I lived in Hong Kong for a few years and became friends with some locals… one joke they had was: “What is the ultimate status symbol purchase in Hong Kong?” answer: “A lawn mower”. One friend tried to explain to me the life struggle of so many of his friends who grew up in social subsidized apartments (which were generally run down, cramped, and poorly maintained). The goal he explained was to compete for the highest grades in school, go to the best university in an option with good job prospects, then save for years advancing in your career, only to be able to buy a nice but small apartment in the block of free market towers a few blocks away from the crappy Gov’t subsidized unit you were raised in. It might be a 40 year struggle, but so be it.

Is this what will happen in Canada going forward with the great plans of urban densification etc…?

#135 Faron on 11.15.22 at 11:50 pm

#128 Sail Away on 11.15.22 at 11:05 pm

Ad hominem insults. Do better.

#136 Faron on 11.15.22 at 11:53 pm

#130 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 11:27 pm

I’ve detected a more despondent, darker, angrier tone

Gonna say that’s in your head. Depression can shadow one’s outlook, gray the colours and add an edge. SAD lamp for your frowny face. I’m not joking. It started raining here about then.

#137 ulsterman on 11.16.22 at 12:01 am

#71 JR on 11.15.22 at 5:50 pm

We have to let go of this idea that a detached SFH home is the only measure of success in life.

You sound like you’re doing very well, but you could be sinking similar amounts into an ETF AND have bought a house 10-15 years ago (not sure your age) that has tripled in value.

I’m not criticizing you, I’m just saying that for 10-20 years buying a house has been an effortless, nearly mindless tax-free path to wealth. The cherry on top is if the home owner had the wherewithal to also invest steadily and consistently in low-fee ETFs.

Sure if you bought in the last year it isn’t looking too good, but for many they bought 10,20,30 years ago and owe little on a very expensive asset.

Owning seems like it’s been the winning move

#138 the Jaguar on 11.16.22 at 12:02 am

Lots of Flotsam Jetsam from the usual suspects. Turn up it up Possum to drown them out….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfUo5DGCYMU

#139 DON on 11.16.22 at 12:17 am

#130 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 11:27 pm
100 Ustabe

“Until pretty recently I used to avidly read your contributions…of late you’ve been a bit of a prick. Think about that. :) ”
—————————————————————-

Thank you for the direct response. Hopefully I have
disengaged another party.

Over the last few weeks, I’ve detected a more despondent, darker, angrier tone to this blog in general.
I do not know what the catalyst is or was.

The other day, you posted something I found odd, even creepy. But I reminded myself where I was – on this blog – and it can be very difficult to read true meanings
and intentions. In the end, I thought that you were only
joking, in a dark, dry way. I hope that is the case.

I have also discovered that it is not wise to divulge too
much personal info or experience on any website. I am not as worried about the flak or good-natured ribbing as general personal security. I dont really want people to know who I am. I also do not do any other social media.

And perspective is very important. Posters who I view as innocuous and whimsically boastful seem to deeply
offend others. I do not know why. I apologize if I offended you.

I will try in the future to read the intended audience
better and concentrate more on economics and financial matters.

Sincere happy face :)

*************
Third man in.

I see both sides and I am watching…lurking in the shadows, too busy lately to fully engage til now.

First off! Others on this blog could learn from the nature of your back and forth exchange/misunderstanding. I believe you both add value to this blog,s comment section that is made of strong personalities.

I have noticed that people are hesitant at the moment and customer service is at low levels in most cases. I know I cringe when I go and get gas or food etc even if I can afford it. I like my money.

Back to reality after a pendemic with rising rates? No more pendemic fueled free dollars, just the bill? Whatever it is…it has been noticeable. Something is in the air. Shift of mindset?

Reminds me of a hangover feeling…a real funk. Will be interesting to see the X-mas sales.

Dr. V – Valleys. Forestry?

Ustabe as always a pleasure.

Now let’s get back to the Game!

#140 the Jaguar on 11.16.22 at 12:21 am

I like that dog Rusty. His expression says loyalty. He’s coming to rescue you at full speed, even if you are not in any danger. A quality only dogs possess because humans have lost their way. …….thank you for giving him a beautiful life.

#141 Sail Away on 11.16.22 at 12:23 am

#130 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 11:27 pm
100 Ustabe

“Until pretty recently I used to avidly read your contributions…of late you’ve been a bit of a prick. Think about that. :) ”

—————

Over the last few weeks, I’ve detected a more despondent, darker, angrier tone to this blog in general.
I do not know what the catalyst is or was.

—————

Agreed, although it seems to be just two blogdogs generally ignoring the blog topic and nastily insulting other contributors, as evidenced in U’s comment above, when all you did was respectfully mention his original statement was factually incorrect. Secure people welcome legitimate correction.

It’s unfortunate that two bad apples are ruining a fun comment section.

#142 Kevin on 11.16.22 at 12:47 am

Preach on, Garth. Thank you once again for writing this blog. The comment section still stinks though… please nuke it or reform it with voting features.

#143 DON on 11.16.22 at 12:51 am

#107 Overheardyou on 11.15.22 at 8:23 pm
A townhouse in Markham is still selling for $1MM so I guess that’s the bottom.

**********
Why can’t it been the period that marks the rise of the greaterfool mentality. Peak Greaterfool?

#144 Robert Ash on 11.16.22 at 1:29 am

I think the Pandemic Lockdown and Isolation away from high densities of Canadians, is the fly in the ointment, for further Densification. We are sadly still faced with reminders, that Covid and now the Children’s respiratory emergencies have not been fully defeated. I am surprised by the Government posture, to re adopt this HD strategy. Hopefully the Building Codes will ensure better Ventilation in the future. Why not consider strategic smaller center Municipal development with the Modern High speed transportation, infrastructure, as a method to have vibrant cities linked together.
If another major Health Crisis presents itself, what then with more people packed together. Kind of like Chinese Mega Cities… Seems, the various Governments, want to continue with a somewhat dated plan.

#145 Nonplused on 11.16.22 at 2:18 am

Oh poop. I predicted Trump would now finally fade away after the midterm disappointment, but nope. He’s running.

Will he get through the primaries? Probably not. But it means unfortunately 2 more years of Trump in the news. Damn.

Trump-Lake 2024, here we come. I hear she’s available now.

I guess it does lend some credence to the theory that the simulation always serves up the most entertaining outcome, but I did expect something bigger. Like maybe verified voter fraud or something. But I really didn’t want 2 more years of Jan. 6th and “the documents”. The simulation must be running out of ideas.

#146 Jennifer on 11.16.22 at 2:29 am

Well Garth, I hear your frustration. So many ugly things
have happened over the years, I have had enough.

But, in the end it all comes down to one thing. In a Democratic country where we can give a boot to
the running party at that time, many times we don’t.
So, the saying goes. You deserve what you VOTE for.

In Ontario, people have given majority to Dough Ford.
I have to ask, why? Did he show any credibility on
seniors housing, health care…. No!

We people need to demand from Politicians better. If not, out they go. Keep doing it as long as it takes.
Keep recycling.

#147 I get it now on 11.16.22 at 4:24 am

#115 Wait There

” All sold within one month. All sold ABOVE asking at outrageous prices to begin with so no lowball starter. All above 1 million. And all purchasers of the race mentioned in this blog.”

***************************************

Despite the obvious lie that this doofus knows who bought every home in the area let’s examine this statement: He knows from looking at them that they are ‘foreigners.’

I guess he’s seen their passports.

No, I get it now, it took me a while to dumb myself down enough to try and understand why these people think foreigners own massive amounts of property when all the data says otherwise.

It’s because by ‘foreigner’ they don’t mean an actual non-citizen, they mean someone who doesn’t look like them!

That’s why they think Vancouver is 40% or 50% foreign owned!

They see all these Asians walking around (or driving fancy cars, god forbid) and they of course are all ‘foreigners’, even though they are in reality Canadian citizens.

I get it now.

I wish I didn’t. I actually thought these people were just stupid, now it’s really clear.

#148 under the radar on 11.16.22 at 4:34 am

91- “The high house prices have driven rent prices up to where people can’t afford them either. People at the other end of the hall pay over $500 more for the exact same apartment as mine. I’ve been here almost 20 years though. My apartment isn’t worth what I’m paying.”

We sold our purpose built in August. One of the buildings has a 100 suites, 6 suites have since turned over, new makeup applied and have rented for more than double. The new tenants pay $1500.00 a month more than the existing tenants. Higher interest rates caused this. Tenants are now trapped, unless they leave 416 to a place far away.

#149 US bans foreign buyers on 11.16.22 at 4:38 am

Some doofus thinks that the US (and other countries) banning Canadians from buying RE would not affect Canadian real estate?

Really?

Now where would Canadians who can no longer buy their vacation home in the US etc. flock to?

Hmmm….where do they still get healthcare coverage and the warmest climate in Canada? And in fact they could just live there year round and then buy a second home in the same province oh, maybe in the Gulf Islands?

I don’t think they’ll choose Edmonton ya know?

Be careful what you wish for. Try thinking things through for once in your life.

(Oh, and if anyone thinks other countries won’t retaliate, you must not travel much. I am paying big tourist visa fees to visit Brazil, Colombia and Argentina, one of which is literally called the ‘reciprocity tax’, due to Canada’s imposition of tourist visa fees on them.)

#150 Wrk.dover on 11.16.22 at 6:22 am

#86 IHCTD9 on 11.15.22 at 6:57 pm
I got no desire to visit NLD. I don’t really know the culture.
______________________________

You seem to have the cheapskate part down pat.

I’ll drink a toast to you next time I’m on a multi thousand-dollar vacation. Ask your big earning wife what she would think about the Caribbean this winter, before you reply. I asked mine.

#151 Damon Bricker on 11.16.22 at 6:32 am

DELETED

#152 Tony on 11.16.22 at 6:40 am

New homes in the GTA will never be bought in a downward market only in an upward market. Once the real estate market turns upward all the new homes will be bought by speculators at the exact same time. Like I said before in 2/3 of Canada population wise building more homes will skew prices sharply higher. The opposite is true in America building more homes will skew prices lower.

#153 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.22 at 7:59 am

@#126 Grumpy Ponzie ( lives in Surrey )
“Old age is catching up with you.
Better stick with reading books.”

+++
…..Sez the man who happily brags about eating bargain basement, out of date, Coffee Crisp bars, washed down with Pepsi ( my teeth are cringing) and cackles with glee when he manages a “return” on a lame Pickle Ball serve……

#154 Wait There on 11.16.22 at 8:26 am

# 147 I get it now

I am also of the same race. I know and I can see. The property market and also culturally for my race. You HAVE TO OWN SOMETHING. It is pounded into you. AT ANY COST you must own a home. At the end it must be passed to the next generation and after that etc.
You see the hardship of paying rent to rich landlords in the old days of China has never been forgotten. Why do you think the peasants went after the landlords when the CCP “liberated” China?
It’s a different mentality because the background and recency bias still holds for the Chinese.
Yeah I also feel the bias that I am rich because I am of this race. I don’t like it but that is the way it is.

BTW how do you beat Dollarama at a fraction of the cost? Possibly Net Net Net, lower than Dollarama’s cost?
ALIEXPRESS and Canada does not collect HST on incoming goods plus it arrives and is delivered by Canada Post. You can purchase something from China and it will arrive by Canada Post and the total will be less than the mailing cost of the same item by Canada Post within Canada! How long does it take? Typically less than 2 weeks.

Dollarama at the $5 price point will hit a nerve on consumers. It ain’t “cheap” anymore.

#155 Sail Away on 11.16.22 at 8:27 am

#135 Faron on 11.15.22 at 11:50 pm
#128 Sail Away on 11.15.22 at 11:05 pm

Ad hominem insults. Do better.

—————

Maybe, ish, but not totally. I’m pretty sure we’ve all been treated multiple times to Ustabe’s version of that 3 year old interaction. It’s no smoking gun.

Hey, do you know why old married couples make the best archaeologists?

Because there’s nobody better at dredging up the past!

#156 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.22 at 8:29 am

“In six weeks Canada will ban anybody not a citizen or PR from buying a house.”

+++

Garth.
Is there anything stopping a non resident from forming a Company in Canada and have the Canadian company purchase Canadian real estate?

Why would they? – Garth

#157 Sail Away on 11.16.22 at 8:41 am

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.15.22 at 10:15 pm

—————

I’m thinkin “The Donald” may be in for a shock…
2 years after he lost….the criminal charges still hanging over his fat head……. his obnoxious style is old hat.

—————

And the band plays on, unfortunately.

Regarding criminal charges, after all these years of multiple allegations and investigations by the best and brightest with every resource of the world’s most powerful country at their full disposal… that maybe, just maybe: there ain’t no there there.

#158 the Jaguar on 11.16.22 at 8:41 am

NP Snippet :

(… Bad boys, bad boys whatcha gonna do? Whatcha gonna do when they come for you?) +++

“• The Canada Revenue Agency will soon be able to parse through the identity and transaction records of most of J.D. Irving’s Kent Building Supplies’ commercial clients and associated contractors and installers to ensure they paid their taxes.

Earlier this month, the Federal Court approved a request by the CRA to require J.D. Irving to fork over the trove of significant data dating back to Jan. 1, 2019, as part of the tax agency’s fight against the underground construction economy.

J.D. Irving will also have to send CRA a list containing known identification, contact, payment and banking information (such as the name of financial institutions, transit and account numbers as yearly payment amounts) of all tradespeople, contractors and installers who perform building or installing services for Kent Building Supplies customers.

CRA estimated that hidden income earned in the construction industry accounted for over one-quarter of all unreported personal income tax in 2018. That represents a whopping $10 billion in unreported taxable income and $2.1 billion in estimated lost tax dollars.
In an affidavit filed in support of the UPR, CRA analyst Margaret Kidd said the agency has “identified significant non-compliance” with tax laws by people working “in building construction and renovation.”

Kidd’s affidavit also reveals the CRA has turned its attention toward potential tax fraud and evasion in the construction industry in Atlantic Canada specifically.—–

#159 ERKSTVS on 11.16.22 at 9:10 am

Agree with most. Disagree with the alarmism regarding triplexes and densification of existing units. That section is a “spoke like a true boomer who likely owns a nice house already” one. hehe.

#160 NJ on 11.16.22 at 9:14 am

Owning a home absolutely should be a goal for all. It’s a key factor to a sustaining retirement. Paying a landlords rising rent and the uncertainty of being “kicked out” for 20-30yrs of retirement is awful and something I’d never want.

Cash flow and income are the retirement goals, not turtling. – Garth

#161 Quintilian on 11.16.22 at 9:47 am

#156 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.22 at 8:29 am

Is there anything stopping a non resident from forming a Company in Canada and have the Canadian company purchase Canadian real estate?

Crowdie, man up, tell Garth what we know for a fact; that while discrimination is a blight on humanity, in relative terms, Canadians don’t deserve the implied accusation- his I quote:

Racist laws do nothing but sully us. – Garth

Virtue signaling in high gear; however, somewhat justified.
He can’t give the real bigots red meat.

#162 IHCTD9 on 11.16.22 at 9:51 am

#130 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 11:27 pm

Over the last few weeks, I’ve detected a more despondent, darker, angrier tone to this blog in general.
I do not know what the catalyst is or was.
___

I notice some kind of change everywhere. I blame the Covid lockdowns. Too long for people to be shut up and face covered.

Last week I may have offended my dentist with something I said. Don’t know where it came from. Yesterday I had to go in again, and I made sure he understood my appreciation of his work and profession.

Another thing I’ve noticed at work is many guys going long intervals in between shaves, like a week or more. Emails with suppliers have degraded to short impersonal 1 liners. There seems to be lots of drinking going on too. I have one customer where my contact is WFH, and bro often comes across like he’s half in the bag.

I feel like some mild social degradation may have set in.

#163 Bezengy on 11.16.22 at 9:52 am

#158 the Jaguar on 11.16.22 at 8:41 am

Kidd’s affidavit also reveals the CRA has turned its attention toward potential tax fraud and evasion in the construction industry in Atlantic Canada specifically.—–

———–

Why just Atlantic Canada? It’s a country wide problem. I’d like to see some major changes.

1. Total income, tax paid, and assets made public and transparent for all Canadians. (like Norway)

2. Send all CRA agents an email similar to Elon’s demanding top notch performance and rewards those who produce (collect) the most.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/elon-musk-demands-twitter-staff-commit-to-long-hours-or-leave.html

3. Setup an independent court with tax fraud and money laundering with judges hidden behind smoked glass where they can’t be intimidated by criminal gangs.

I say this half joking of course, but seriously we Canadians need to be willing to give up some of our privacy rights and civil liberties to get this under control. The criminals are winning, and it’s high time we stopped this from happening.

#164 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.16.22 at 10:09 am

“Garth.
Is there anything stopping a non resident from forming a Company in Canada and have the Canadian company purchase Canadian real estate?

Why would they? – Garth”

+++
To invest in Canadian real estate as a safe haven?
To move their money from a corrupt dictatorship?
Etc.etc.etc.

IRAC in PEI ( and before your eyes roll over at “insignificant” PEI .)
PEI was the first province in Canada to slow the sales of property to foreign ownership.
IRAC has been putting restrictions on foreign ownership since the early 1970’s due to the influx of American money snapping up prime waterfront real estate.
The last few years Asian money has poured onto the Island and they have skirted the IRAC rules by creating Legal entities that purchase land.

Put up a rule.
There’s always a way around it.
And lawyers/ accountant ( politicians?) make even more money.

I expect after Jan 1st 2023 the upsurge in new Canadian numbered companies with foreign ownership will spike.

#165 bubu on 11.16.22 at 10:17 am

Wowow.. Higher TFSA limit, RRSP, increase brackets for taxation… Something positive…

#166 Linda on 11.16.22 at 10:18 am

In the ongoing debate about housing costs, the official inflation rate came in at 6.9%, holding steady from September. So the cost of building doesn’t look like it is going to drop soon, especially with various levels of government hiking taxes. At the rate things are going, the drop in house prices in conjunction with the increase in taxes owing on the transaction just might lead current owners to forego selling because it won’t provide those much envied ‘windfall’ gains. Crikey, it might even provide an actual loss. So much for instant riches!

#167 IHCTD9 on 11.16.22 at 10:24 am

#150 Wrk.dover on 11.16.22 at 6:22 am
#86 IHCTD9 on 11.15.22 at 6:57 pm
I got no desire to visit NLD. I don’t really know the culture.
______________________________

You seem to have the cheapskate part down pat.

I’ll drink a toast to you next time I’m on a multi thousand-dollar vacation. Ask your big earning wife what she would think about the Caribbean this winter, before you reply. I asked mine.
_____

Indeed, born in Canada but the cheap NLD genes live on. Ms. IH has exactly zero interest in hot sandy beaches believe it or not. She’d much rather go to Europe. I went to Vegas a few years back, it was cool and all, but not something I just can’t wait to do again. I’d do a fly in fishing trip though – does that count?

#168 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.16.22 at 10:36 am

And the counting goes on and on.
In the US it seems that most public positions are subject to elections.
Even the School crossing guard, it seems.
Time to rewrite the Constitution and simplify the voting process.
Sometimes less is more.
Trump is back to clean the swamp again.
Don’t underestimate his fan base.
Last time around he got more than 70 mill votes.
He’s the Energizer Bunny personified.

#169 45north on 11.16.22 at 10:51 am

Math is hard

native English speakers only use math as a singular noun

It’s time to talk realistically about the European gas situation. There is talk about that because Europe has some gas in storage, perhaps an amount similar to what they usually carry into the winter, they will be ok without Russian supplies. Nothing could be further from the truth.
First, my resume: I have years of experience in utility supply management. I’ve done this stuff. Millions of people have depended on me doing it correctly.
This model is simplified. The realities are much more detailed and complicated, but it would take a long time to explain and even then many would not understand it. I think everyone can understand this simplification.
We can divide the gas market into 3 conceptual blocks. Block “A” will be baseload supply and demand that flows all year directly from production to consumption. You can think of it as being about 1/3 of supply and demand. On a rate basis it is but on a total volume basis it is higher, because it flows 365 days per year.
Block “C” will be supply that flows only from storage in the winter directly to consumers. On a rate basis it is also about 1/3 of demand but on a volume basis is much smaller than block “A” because it only flows for 151 days a year.
Block “B” is interesting, because in the summer it represents gas that is flowing from production into storage. This is how the storage reserves are filled up. But in the winter this block is not flowing into storage, it is flowing directly to the market. Block B can thus be thought of as an equal amount to block C in the winter, such that the total gas available directly from production in the winter is block A plus block B, but in the summer is block A minus block B.
Thus, winter supplies are Block A + B + C, with A + B both coming directly from production. Only block C comes from storage in the winter.
Put another way, winter supply is A+B+C, while summer supply is A + B – C, which nets to only block A, since block B & C are of equal magnitude.
Thus, when storage is full, if there is no production, in this case much of it coming from Russia, storage only has 1/3 of the total volume that will be required to get through a winter. It is nowhere near enough.
I have left out the calculations of rate. The 1/3 of winter supply held in storage cannot be produced at the full 3/3 daily rate of demand, even if the total volume were sufficient.
And of course in the summer storage must be refilled by block B. Block B is not available if Block A isn’t. Thus, the prospect for spring is limited supply, no gas in storage, and no way to refill it. The prospects for next winter are thus even worse.
The long and the short of it is that storage is not a substitute for supply. To get through winter, you need all 3 blocks, A + B + C, of which only one, block C, is storage.
We are just weeks away from observing this reality. There is no prospect of avoiding it. The war cannot be resolved in the timeframe required, and even if it could North Stream remains out of service.
Fortunately, natural gas does not make up 100% of Europe’s energy supply, and Russia does not make up 100% of the natural gas portion. The numbers are closer to 33% and 40%, meaning the total shortfall of total energy is only around 13%. But oil is getting scarce too. Reversion to coal can only do so much. Nuclear will be slow to restore. And of course the dependency on Russian energy varies by country. Norway, for example, will be largely unaffected. Germany, on the other hand, is in trouble.

thanks for that

#170 Shawn on 11.16.22 at 10:58 am

CPP Wrinklies getting a 6.5% raise

With October inflation in the books at 6.9^ we now know that the Canada Pension Plan pensions will increase at 6.5% on January 1. That’s the average of the 12 CPI numbers in the 12 months ending October.

6.5% only makes up for inflation. But it’s darn nice to have full CPI indexing. Average wages are apparently up 5.5%.

I don’t think a many government people are getting anywhere close to 5% so for once the private sector is going to make some gains on the government sector.

Meanwhile, we all have to shop around a little harder to battle inflation.

#171 millmech on 11.16.22 at 11:16 am

160 NJ
You are correct it is a great goal as I listen to my coworkers complain how their landlord (the bank) has doubled their rent payment. At the rates now being offered some one is basically paying double the mortgage over 25-30 years. That 950k ($6200 a month) condo is actually 1,900k after all said and done, now add in 30 years of strata at 600 a month and property taxes of 200 a month and you’re at 2,200k out of pocket after 30 years.
If one rented for say 4k a month and invested the difference at 7% you get 3,600k in the bank after paying for shelter and a twenty year draw down in retirement would give you 30k a month.
Each to their own, I prefer having the stress-free life that FU money brings and have found that over time renting is way cheaper and just as secure as owning, having done both.
YMMV.

#172 Cheyne on 11.16.22 at 11:19 am

If overseas investors arent a problem then banning them wont make a difference

Just an indication Canada is not currently a serious country, requiring nanny-state protections. – Garth

#173 Yukon Elvis on 11.16.22 at 11:20 am

#154 Wait There on 11.16.22 at 8:26 am

BTW how do you beat Dollarama at a fraction of the cost? Possibly Net Net Net, lower than Dollarama’s cost?
ALIEXPRESS and Canada does not collect HST on incoming goods plus it arrives and is delivered by Canada Post. You can purchase something from China and it will arrive by Canada Post and the total will be less than the mailing cost of the same item by Canada Post within Canada! How long does it take? Typically less than 2 weeks.
++++++++++
True. My orders typically took 2-4 weeks from Aliexpress , mind you covid was in play. I have also done some online purchases from France, Italy, and Czech Republic with similar results. No problems whatsoever.

#174 Observer on 11.16.22 at 11:31 am

#162 IHCTD9 on 11.16.22 at 9:51 am
#130 Dr V on 11.15.22 at 11:27 pm

Over the last few weeks, I’ve detected a more despondent, darker, angrier tone to this blog in general.
I do not know what the catalyst is or was.
___

I notice some kind of change everywhere. I blame the Covid lockdowns.

^^^^^^^^^^^^
What “lockdowns” were those? I thought you lived in Canada.

#175 Dharma Bum on 11.16.22 at 11:31 am

You mean I will soon be able to build a triplex on my suburban postage stamp lot?

Cool.

My neighbours too?

Cool.

We can turn the area into a downtown-like densified cesspool.

That will increase the demand. After all, isn’t that where all the kiddos, moisters, mils, and their ilk wanna hang out?

With all the rest of the hipsters, grifters, hobos, vagrants, tramps, itinerants, SJWs, wokesters, metrosexuals, vagabonds, scroungers, pikers, drifters, deadbeats, beggars, and drifters.

Can’t wait!

#176 Crystal ball futurist on 11.16.22 at 11:44 am

The solution is very simple which is also hinted in this post. The govt should not intervene which means:
No MBS buying
Dissolve CMHC or make it as a listed insurance co.
Cap gains tax same as any other investment.
No stupid schemes to promote housing.

#177 Dr V on 11.16.22 at 11:49 am

162 IHCTD9

“I notice some kind of change everywhere.”
——————————————————-

In retrospect, it may just be my own perspective changing.

My youngest says I am more cheerful since I stopped working. It’s a big step. I still don’t feel I’m “retired” but at least no more grind. The last couple of years were difficult, and when I think about going back, I say “no way am I going to deal with that again”. Time will tell.

I seem to notice more angry drivers, but in reality, I dont go out every day, and I’m in no hurry. When coming home the other day, I had someone tight on my tail. I was going slightly above the limit, and still had to brake twice for drivers entering from side streets. Buddy is still on my tail. WTF? You can wait pal.

As far as the blog goes, maybe I’m finally noticing how angry some posters are.

#178 Hypocrisy Defined on 11.16.22 at 11:50 am

#59 Faron on 11.15.22 at 5:12 pm

Hey, Dr V! One way to approach Ustabe’s comment would be to take a passive aggressive dig (enough with the “I’m confused about” bullshit) at the mostly irrelevant mistakes of elevation while tossing in a backhanded insult. That is the way that you chose.

Or! You as someone who likes to ramble hills could relate to how Ustabe once enjoyed rambling a few mountains in the Purcells and, possibly, return with your own story. That would be constructive. And interesting. And positive.

===================================

To steal Val Kilmer’s Doc Holliday quote, surely even your hypocrisy has limits.

You, of all people, possess less than zero moral authority to lecture anyone on how to not be unpleasant, insulting, or always entirely disagreeable.

I get your compulsive need to rush to the defence of your kindred spirit, but it doesn’t change the hard facts: you’re the single biggest tw*t commenter on this blog by such a large margin that even the runners-up aren’t close.

(And there’a more than one vowel that replaces that asterisk properly.)

#179 RG on 11.16.22 at 11:51 am

population density per sq. km (city proper):
Vancouver 5,492
Montreal 4,662
Toronto 4,334

Paris 20,909
New York 10,431
San Francisco 6,658
Barcelona 15,991

Toronto’s middle class population is clinging to a suburban fantasy. There are SFHs within a ten minute walk of downtown. The problem is zoning, not land availability.

#180 Quintilian on 11.16.22 at 12:07 pm

Just an indication Canada is not currently a serious country, requiring nanny-state protections. – Garth

Canada is respected world-wide, please do not besmirch our country to defend the indefensible, and an erroneous, illogical, position.

Not perfect, but starting to take seriously the world organizations, that point to the loopholes that make money laundering inviting. It’s called the “Vancouver Model”.

Legitimate investors, who want to build new supply are welcome to most fair minded Canadians, but speculators, those who use our housing as a safety deposit box, and money launderers are despicable and undesirable.

Find something worthwhile to complain about. This does not raise Canadian real estate prices enough to waste our time on. – Garth

#181 Tony on 11.16.22 at 12:12 pm

Re: #170 Shawn on 11.16.22 at 10:58 am

This youtube video says if you take your CPP you should have taken it in December 2022 instead of January 2023 saying you’ll earn an extra 2.5 percent for life if you take CPP December 2022 instead of January 2023.

Some Of You Should Start CPP RIGHT NOW – Fred Vettese Globe and Mail

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqHy2-FtGlc&t=202s

#182 Dr V on 11.16.22 at 12:16 pm

139 DON

Yes, forestry. Glad I did it so I can reminisce about it.
A humbling experience flying in to camps,
realizing nothing out there cares about you except the bears for their own reasons.

I think we both enjoy kicking horse coffee. We got 3
bags on-line at the “sale” price. The local retailers drive
us nuts with the normal price of $12 or more. It eventually goes on sale, but you have to continually watch for it. Much easier this way.

#183 Diamond Dog on 11.16.22 at 12:22 pm

Entirely off topic, apologies (Re really is a good topic) but I couldn’t help myself, found this too amusing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnUGAsTLU9o

Speaking of Roubini bringing up Kevin O’Leary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbTbzZaxmSw

Which begs the question assuming readers suffered through O’Leary’s musings in the link above … if Crypto was truly properly regulated, would there be anyone left? ??

#184 #154 Wait There on 11.16.22 at 12:31 pm

Well that went from ‘foreign buyers are driving RE in Canada and the FBT will work’ to ‘Asian culture promotes owning property’ real fast. (Yes bad grammar, it’s colloquialism)

The FBT has not done a damn thing for prices and obviously will not do anything to change the culture of Asians who are citizens of Canada.

The obsession with foreigners is really hard to understand. (Well, sort of.)

Spend 1/10th of that time encouraging better zoning laws, increasing supply, reducing fees and taxes on new builds etc.

There are a hundred ways housing could be made cheaper, ranting about foreigners is the only one that is completely useless and takes away from the real issues.

#185 KLNR on 11.16.22 at 12:34 pm

@#158 the Jaguar on 11.16.22 at 8:41 am
NP Snippet :

(… Bad boys, bad boys whatcha gonna do? Whatcha gonna do when they come for you?) +++

“• The Canada Revenue Agency will soon be able to parse through the identity and transaction records of most of J.D. Irving’s Kent Building Supplies’ commercial clients and associated contractors and installers to ensure they paid their taxes.

Earlier this month, the Federal Court approved a request by the CRA to require J.D. Irving to fork over the trove of significant data dating back to Jan. 1, 2019, as part of the tax agency’s fight against the underground construction economy.

J.D. Irving will also have to send CRA a list containing known identification, contact, payment and banking information (such as the name of financial institutions, transit and account numbers as yearly payment amounts) of all tradespeople, contractors and installers who perform building or installing services for Kent Building Supplies customers.

CRA estimated that hidden income earned in the construction industry accounted for over one-quarter of all unreported personal income tax in 2018. That represents a whopping $10 billion in unreported taxable income and $2.1 billion in estimated lost tax dollars.
In an affidavit filed in support of the UPR, CRA analyst Margaret Kidd said the agency has “identified significant non-compliance” with tax laws by people working “in building construction and renovation.”

Kidd’s affidavit also reveals the CRA has turned its attention toward potential tax fraud and evasion in the construction industry in Atlantic Canada specifically.—–

its no secret that a substantial portion of labour in the construction industry is paid under the table.

#186 Wrk.dover on 11.16.22 at 12:46 pm

#167 IHCTD9 on 11.16.22 at 10:24 am
I’d do a fly in fishing trip though – does that count?
______________________________

My friend in MT. has an unpowered dory he pops in the Missouri River up by Bozeman somewhere and floats down toward Helena through rapids. That’s cool.

You seem more the big stinkpot deep sea strapped to a fighting chair adventurer. I’ve told you before, the Fla. Keys have a different sportfish for every week of the year.

The longer you wait, the more it will cost, while your investments tread water.

#187 Wrk.dover on 11.16.22 at 12:53 pm

#145 Nonplused on 11.16.22 at 2:18 am
Trump-Lake 2024, here we come.
____________________________________

Better that than Trump-Kushner. Gaah!

#188 Tony on 11.16.22 at 12:56 pm

Re: #17 PeterfromCalgary on 11.15.22 at 3:21 pm

We’ll find out very early next year if both figures are legit. I always see aberrations in figures for years on end running just before things like Black Friday sales and the Christmas season.

#189 Sean on 11.16.22 at 1:13 pm

It’s suburbia and low-density residential neighbourhoods that are subsidized by mixed, walkable neighborhoods.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Nw6qyyrTeI

#190 IHCTD9 on 11.16.22 at 1:57 pm

#177 Dr V on 11.16.22 at 11:49 am

My youngest says I am more cheerful since I stopped working. It’s a big step. I still don’t feel I’m “retired” but at least no more grind. The last couple of years were difficult, and when I think about going back, I say “no way am I going to deal with that again”. Time will tell.
____

I worked with a guy who retired mid 50’s. His hobby was basically just lifting weights. He was dying of boredom so came back to work. He did 12 more years on the hamster wheel. A few retired dudes I know picked up an easy PT job. 2-3 days per week delivering car parts, KFC, lawn care, etc.. and they all seem pretty happy with it.

I like to think I’d be a happy early retiree, but who knows? I know guys who kept working right into their mid 70’s by choice.

#191 Numbered companies on 11.16.22 at 2:22 pm

#164 crowdedelevatorfartz

I expect after Jan 1st 2023 the upsurge in new Canadian numbered companies with foreign ownership will spike.
***************************************

What’s the number in Canada now?

Subtracting all the citizen owned ones of course, as most small businesses and self-employed have one, or two or three. I have one.

I’m sure you have the data at your fingertips, or one of the xenophobes must.

Funny they never cite any data, like zero, just their anecdotal “I saw a young guy driving a Lambo” type nonsense.

#192 NJ on 11.16.22 at 2:25 pm

Owning a home absolutely should be a goal for all. It’s a key factor to a sustaining retirement. Paying a landlords rising rent and the uncertainty of being “kicked out” for 20-30yrs of retirement is awful and something I’d never want.

Cash flow and income are the retirement goals, not turtling. – Garth

************************************

Tough to have cash flow or income when you are paying someone else $2500/mo for a shack in retirement :)

How does that differ from having substantial equity yielding nothing, property taxes, monthly fees, insurance premiums, utilities and repair costs? You can always rent a decent place to live. You cannot rent income. Classic mistake. – Garth

#193 NJ on 11.16.22 at 2:31 pm

160 NJ
You are correct it is a great goal as I listen to my coworkers complain how their landlord (the bank) has doubled their rent payment. At the rates now being offered some one is basically paying double the mortgage over 25-30 years. That 950k ($6200 a month) condo is actually 1,900k after all said and done, now add in 30 years of strata at 600 a month and property taxes of 200 a month and you’re at 2,200k out of pocket after 30 years.
If one rented for say 4k a month and invested the difference at 7% you get 3,600k in the bank after paying for shelter and a twenty year draw down in retirement would give you 30k a month.
Each to their own, I prefer having the stress-free life that FU money brings and have found that over time renting is way cheaper and just as secure as owning, having done both.
YMMV.

*******************************************

I guess it is all relative to when you “got into” the market. For people who bought at the absolute peak price in that last year or two, with stupidly-low interest rates – yes, might be a bumpy road ahead.

I bought in 2017 for a modest $370k @ 2.3% 5yr, and resigned in Nov 2021 for another 5yrs @ 2.4%. My property tax is $300/mo and mortgage is $1700.

For $2k a month, I could not even rent a basement in todays world. I am saving from now until my 5yrs is up again so I can throw down a lump sum and offset the interest rate rise – thus maintaining a very similar mortgage payment. If absolutely necessary – I could rent out my OWN basement for $1500+… I have a detached 3bdrm subdivision home…

#194 NJ on 11.16.22 at 3:38 pm

Owning a home absolutely should be a goal for all. It’s a key factor to a sustaining retirement. Paying a landlords rising rent and the uncertainty of being “kicked out” for 20-30yrs of retirement is awful and something I’d never want.

Cash flow and income are the retirement goals, not turtling. – Garth

************************************

Tough to have cash flow or income when you are paying someone else $2500/mo for a shack in retirement :)

How does that differ from having substantial equity yielding nothing, property taxes, monthly fees, insurance premiums, utilities and repair costs? You can always rent a decent place to live. You cannot rent income. Classic mistake. – Garth

*******************************************
I can currently own my home while investing 15-20% of my income for retirement. When I retire, I will have no mortgage and a nest egg to live off. I can also at that point sell my home and downsize, increasing my nest egg. Your largest bill is rent/mortgage. Why not make an effort to eliminate one of those, eventually?

I’m going to go out on a limb and bet that you own a home(s) and do not rent, so I don’t know why you push this narrative that being a renter is the greatest thing ever.

If you can save for a down payment, pay your mortgage/property tax and STILL invest 10-10% for retirement, how could renting every be better than that?

The only narrative I push is that one size does not fit all. Some people should rent. Some should own. But stop proselytizing. Make your choices and live with them quietly. – Garth

#195 Jurgen Muller on 11.16.22 at 8:01 pm

What we can expect from average Canadian peasants if a RealEstate expert gets stuck with a variable mortgage and pays $38,400 per year just in interest without paying off the principal?https://twitter.com/silberschmelzer/status/1593006824357527552