Not so bad

November sucks. Dark. Cheerless. Time change. Cold and wet. Snow, yuck.

But the 11th month of 2022 has turned into a beacon of hope for investors, markets and perhaps the world. Just consider what’s been going on…

The latest inflation number in the US came in cool. Not hot. The back of this thing, investors think, has been broken. CBs will stop killing us in a few months.

The Dems beat the Trumpers. There was no Red Wave in the American midterms, which means 45 was repudiated after inserting himself into the fray. He may still announce on Tuesday, but DeSantis will wipe the floor with him. Good for stability. Good for us all.

Jobs are plentiful and wages rising. The unemployment number in Canada last week was epic. Ten times better than expected. American stats also strong with virtual full employment in place. We have never contemplated a bad recession with job strength like this.

The Bank of Canada boss said two days ago rate hikes aren’t done yet, but we’re close. Any downturn here will be short and shallow. Two beautiful words. So stay invested.

The Russians put their ratty tails between their legs and marched – or skedaddled – out of a key Ukrainian city they’d held since Putin’s mad war began. The tide has turned. There will be come kind of resolution in 2023.

Corporate profits have been steadfast. The crypto delusion is rapidly evaporating. And have you heard anyone talking about paying multiple millions for a NFT of a monkey lately? Me, neither. This distracting, unproductivity, puerile pantfull is coming to an end.

In the scheme of things, maple’s good. So far in 2022 the mighty S&P 500 is still down almost 17%. The Dow’s off 7.8%. In comparison, Bay Street is only 5% below it’s heady January level, which means a few decent weeks could actually see it end this teary year with a gain.

The Canadian inflation number to be released this week will be high, pretty much cementing in a BoC hike on December 7th but, weirdly, interest rates are stabilizing. Government bond yields fell last week on that encouraging US cost-of-living data, and five-year mortgage costs are stalling in the 5-5.5% range. Yeah, sales have crashed (this November may be the worst in over 20 years) and prices have yet to see bottom. But this is not going to murder the GDP.

Gas prices are down. There have been more good days than stinkers on the financial markets lately. Two-by-fours are affordable (sort of) again, as lumber prices have crashed this year by over 70%.

The story of a year in one chart: lumber prices

There’s more, of course. Nobody’s writing fatuous media stories about ‘quiet quitting’ any more. Elon’s getting spanked. The federal deficit has withered. Golden retriever puppy prices have dropped 40%. Biden’s talking to Xi. Adele is trapped in Las Vegas, which means we’re safe.

So 2022 was messed up by central banks and Putin. If there’d been no Ukraine war and no monetary tightening cycle, it would have been an entirely different year. But in 2023 it’s reasonable to expect both conflict and rate hikes to pause. Inflation will subside. We’ll all get used to the increased cost of money. The economy will grow again. Profits will continue. Markets will reflect it all.

No, it’s not different this time. No cliff. No great reset. No generational debt crisis. No depression. No collapse. None of that stuff the professional bears have been selling to you all year on doomer web sites would come to pass. These turned out to be just events, and life is always full of them. Some big, some meaningless. All of them noisy. Temporary.

Today still is a gift. Don’t blow it.

About the picture: “First snow dump of the Prairies this year and Skip The Rescue Wonder Dog enjoys a seasonal stroll around our acreage,” writes Kris. “Still a young pup and this is his first foray into the white stuff which seems to cause much frolic and gives the owners of the leash a reason to enjoy the fresh air antics. The early morning routine is now coffee whilst reading the daily words of wisdom from the blog and then outside for the welcome exercise as we ponder things financial from the Teachings of Garth ( MSU ). Very much appreciate the steady hand on the tiller in these anxious times Garth, and having a wonderful loving animal to care for adds to the balance in life.”

136 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.13.22 at 11:08 am

The Democrats maintaining control of the Senate must have Trump in an absolute, spit and invective spewing fury.
A jammer at Mar a Lago would be a shame.
I still want to see him in an Orange Jumpsuit and ankle bracelets.

#2 Gone For A Long Long While on 11.13.22 at 11:18 am

If jobs are plentiful and any pullback figures to be short and shallow, then should the BoC not continuing with rate hikes, albeit modest ones, well into 2023? Seems to me this might be the one chance to at least try and get housing prices close to sane levels again.

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.13.22 at 11:21 am

@#99 Dharma Bum
“Also, congratulations on doing a 100 miler. ”

+++
I believe he was referring to his “words per minute” typing skills…….

#4 robert james on 11.13.22 at 11:24 am

GOP bomb goes off: Turning on ‘toxic,’ ‘loser’ Trump after humiliating losses … https://www.msnbc.com/the-beat-with-ari/watch/gop-bomb-goes-off-turning-on-toxic-loser-trump-after-humiliating-losses-153297989859 And a big thankyou goes out to Trump for his lies and stupidity that helped the Dems to success in the mid terms.. America might survive after-all..

#5 Saint Herb on 11.13.22 at 11:40 am

Financial Post:
Softening housing market is not a crash

https://youtu.be/0O7y3tgzGUw

Benjamin Tal makes it sound like everything is great in the housing market. What gives?

#6 Andrewski on 11.13.22 at 11:40 am

FTX exchange “being scrutinized”! Yikes.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ftx-collapse-being-scrutinized-bahamas-160057854.html

#7 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.13.22 at 11:41 am

Trump is “livid” and “screaming at everyone”.

https://traffic.outbrain.com/network/redir?p=z87UCQGuf1jzdqsI4st1Ps3VCHYv2zzP3XPe03NQ5oKtP1MdXcChnyN7yyvQESNL-1BjB6_HwBTDK83jzSGkHUxspUNtu1yvcfxoqDKD5s5de4uJW78ybPJb_cCr3MlFN836AczpyzhpDOnR8BMUehR0U23pYn85ZK5TasXZ133Xyla3d82XZNsWy7ufs3PpkoSCXj_hq3FbGNNnnT-3t0uEuwCUJoE2U45t9G7VLolT9ovTbC4fGwzBelJMLMlacvA17-w8Ja9oqc2JaSm9cMcmlScdlgyhm1-yxv7-GVhWNcS8NLKkl8HJ8Oi21p-2Bkw9_NzjnDEs3nVaPbedVX3kyakJZxmTlclUc_mBHIx9pyoeaFlGCNrkIAZm2jKFXGvmPCLP8Dh7tTIdrtWpqAINOljg35ihA8CaANsT4u5-6Xe3e29St4xs7UPAuVL3gGSPGUp8WK4Ib4-kDRzBt25utb3xrd3W33mqEU_m_yCDLmhO6jQyWtfm24hf01GcJG4fMlsU5FdUkpWgdSVCgODxehG4Libp0ZrFWbVdKdlxQNRA413YitvdCDIYeLhcQGxB9-1ADt2uC1sN7KBJUtchXIFa9k-zaCeFPFd01T8eghaQkukTdQD9qH1NGUZQwNiFZR2go9Cc5Gj-GuXS2JscUXislMaAicOCwz120GlkzXHu3VoMQYTNWVe_nsM_HRBAQp23LY9gZQdjYn3wJbdpvtYLfnZ2GFTi2n60EPpUKlsFLgiU4QcFG-dYNVWk0XuIsXZ8601_kP-nNL9mdyGDtDUcogk0nbWzb6dfu8P1Fts_XwMxMA24VVFe-pXvNbM40_z9g5EVAwhm1DpaAZ_AzNctksNFLkKEJqq8Qt73VQY5d4700QmnvO5DJWh1Qu1Tt5ORYqrsrc4bFw1NiE1sz1tjeot2CwWMDx3WeTl4OOJthmu77DPi2pUZkwkKC-QhXLJ_xGot9542cAARMmg1C7W8b2hiIzWJnO2z_3jtV_ra8DHuBK6Y1DsiWuPYiiKYB8OqXjPq_X_lvuXwFeRyaa0m-8KpO7OfGBNM76LmZvk1dS9J29vjbyfQ9MgigJJbXZHBguulCeyDebs8HwkhtnPLbRrwL_sbmq4oSihRor7U9U1ol9BguGVE1vYp9lgmasWaRGwgaL7Q24mbGfIAloW0D64yotwPnn0FekDmDzumHaGOM821al1-g9ko6zUkT3hS_qX407sELYpKTmlwb8l8hGSfTEzZdgs4QwCVtbb0g0uaFf2yxzjEedEiCAs1DKsTEq10zMOphi4IZyMQFj-PoDUWT9qZ9_HtzleEqqYywsEvIRPdKoBr-kFUdxNGKB55JftOLIHSWM7h2xJDp3vs1o6WEdp8pNTbkPSiz-NnpYIo3r2SZyofdxs3p69n_9wkz7kAD8I0jQGNJ-E0B7aFWjrDEzx8pSRW0QM4bZcpNDpjtX8VVRnHS6MhwympwnFVX43-0d3f95qcCM3gBgi-rY79FJJp0YCXw18HQF1d2EXf2fQzOlifQo3woj3EGQTUDXd8C_lhq3qEgInXvmm2gC2_MjLz4wUFcYn3izG3q2pjqM7aciEPVM5WyBt_titXnrWtLmzfEUQPtMxFyZiXMHiKrWEUlHpruo4&c=328f9c35&v=3

Perhaps “45” should represent the “Donkey” party….since he always acts like one.

#8 Wait There on 11.13.22 at 11:49 am

In what world is 7.7% inflation cool?

#9 baloney Sandwitch on 11.13.22 at 11:51 am

Yep – agree 100%. Oct 11 was the low of the post covid bear market. Thanks for seeing us through Garth. The low for Canadian RE is yet to come.

#10 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 11.13.22 at 11:57 am

What a joke, the FTX scam is obviously set up to usher in the gov regulated crypto currency for the slaves, you know, for the safety and wellbeing of everyone. Do they find a dolt with that name already to prop up and then be the fall guy or do they find someone so filled with sin already and change his name? Bankman-fried is as bad as the whole wiener fixation a while back.

#11 Reality is stark on 11.13.22 at 11:57 am

And John Tory NEEDS a 10% yearly property tax increase since he has lost so much double land transfer tax.
It seems that he was drunk on this tax based on property prices rising indefinitely. Of course he spent all the money rewarding his risk averse employees with outrageous salaries and publicly fortified defined benefit pension plans.
You may find that 2023 is going to be a much more difficult year as inflation and higher taxes devour your disposable income and layoffs become more commonplace.
It’s a bit early to state that happy days are here again.
The central banks overshot on interest rates and will need to backtrack quickly.
International container shipping rates are down 75% and goods price reductions will be coming fast and furious.
Central bankers have made a mess of this by taking too long to increase rates and then raising them too quickly with unnecessary language calling for rates to go to the moon when there were plenty of signs indicating that prices were moderating.

#12 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.22 at 12:20 pm

All the leaves are brown.
And the skies are gray.
California Dreaming.
On a Novembers Day.
———————————
Not here in the Lower Mainland.
Sunny and crisp.
Pickle ball, here I come.
No fancy equipment needed.

#13 Sail Away on 11.13.22 at 12:32 pm

Good post, Garth. Thank you.

The tide has turned. Markets have turned, although even they haven’t been really dropping for the last many months. Our Heloc borrow to invest port entered in May and June is -1%, but has paid 2% div. All buys from last few months are black and rising. The market wants to explode as we saw Thursday and Friday. Broad market index valuations are pretty scrumptious now, especially when factoring in inflation.

Good midterm results for the economy. DeSantis will displace Trump once and for all, hopefully in public single combat.

Twitter is a barrel of monkeys these days. Really fun, actually. Highest user count ever, and advertisers quietly slipping back in after their public display. No longer dozens of unsolicited beautiful girls looking for a man like me, though, sigh.

New Tesla full self driving released Nov 11 is really really good, says my NASA buddy in Texas. Game-changing. Semi now out with big contracts in place. 500 mile range. Stock at best value in years with even better fundamentals. We added more last week and may keep doing so.

#14 Habsfan60 on 11.13.22 at 12:33 pm

More from the anecdotal views of Toronto real estate. Lots of “For Sale” signs in the west end, drive up Royal York Road from the lake and you will see double digit signs before you hit Bloor St. But what really is surprising is the craigslist listings. Once a haven for properties under a mill the last few days have seen some big-time agents listing toney Mississauga digs that go for 2.5Mill plus!. This is going to be a cold winter for many people.

#15 Wrk.dover on 11.13.22 at 12:37 pm

Keep in mind most of the reason lumber was so scarce so soon in lockdown; producers balked at producing. The price shut them down, much production was off line before the bat virus.

Watch the re-run at the current price.

#16 Dr V on 11.13.22 at 12:49 pm

2 Gone

“If jobs are plentiful and any pullback figures to be short and shallow, then should the BoC not continuing with rate hikes, albeit modest ones, well into 2023? Seems to me this might be the one chance to at least try and get housing prices close to sane levels again.”
——————————————–

Generally agree with this viewpoint.

Tiff has been clear that it is inflation he wants to
quash, and house and stock valuations may just be
collateral damage. He has stated that undershooting the bank rate is a bigger danger than overshooting, as you get some of the negatives, but receive no longer term benefit. He has also told us he is “frontloading” the rate, so reductions in the change to 0.5% or even 0.25% is neither a pivot nor an indicator of an imminent pause.

So, I’ll go with 0.5% in December, 0.25% to start the new year, then 0.25% on alternating dates to get us
to mid-2023. At that point….????

#17 TurnerNation on 11.13.22 at 12:59 pm

What might be next for the Permanent, Rolling Economic (& Social) Lockdown?

Same script as last two years. We are ruled by news releases. Always a leak a few days beforehand. Guess what comes next after this…have a stab at it. This time it’s for The Children, not The Elderly.

.Top Ontario doctor to ask public to mask up as respiratory illnesses rage: sources. Ontario’s top doctor will recommend the public begin masking on Monday in an effort to help overwhelmed children’s hospitals (cp24.com)

—- I always noted that the future lockdowns will be electronic in nature. QR Code. Suspect it will be back by January.
Wanna bet our rulers punish us over this insolence?
$9 billion? How much Hospital Capacity would this buy us??

.Federal government throws away millions more COVID vaccines due to lack of demand (nationalpost.com)
“”Canada ordered tens of millions of doses from seven different manufacturers before any of the vaccines had cleared clinical trials, at a cost of more than $9 billion””

—-
— Are we being primed for a cull of our food supply animals? Minks > Deer > next? Is there anything Corvid cannot do to reshape the world.

.Divergent SARS-CoV-2 variant emerges in white-tailed deer with deer-to-human transmission (nature.com)

#18 35Mugen on 11.13.22 at 1:02 pm

Hey Garth, any insight into why I just spotted a 3 pack of Andy Boy Romain Lettuce for $16.99 here in Markham when these used to cost $3.99 a pack? Is Romain the one produce that encapsulates everything that’s gone sideways from fertilizer, truck driver, and fuel costs?

#19 Dave on 11.13.22 at 1:05 pm

So rates will pause in 2023 and then decrease?

.25% decrease and real estate will be red hot again

No decrease. Of course not. – Garth

#20 Trump and DeSantis on 11.13.22 at 1:26 pm

The obsession with Trump, who is a private citizen is a little weird.

DeSantis, who went so far as to mimic Trump’s mannerisms, won by 20 full points (!!!) in a state which for decades has been a swing state, where ballot harvesting was not allowed and mail in and drop boxes were strictly monitored.

He famously bused some illegal immigrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard, where they were promptly removed ‘for their own good’. LOL.

Sounds like something Trump would do, wouldn’t you say?

The GOP is a dinosaur party and doomed to failure if they keep their present ‘leadership’ and do not get in on the mail in voting scheme which ‘brings out the vote’.

The Dobbs decision certainly didn’t help, and I’m surprised any Republicans survived that shot to their own foot (or head).

Personally, I don’t care if they catch on or not. A GOP lead by people like McConnell, Romney and Ryan is worse than even the Mazie Hirono, Maxine Waters, Joe Biden Democrats.

But none of it really matters, Marxist ideology won the intellectual war decades ago and now permeates 95% of institutions such as schools, bureaucracies and all major agencies, including, gasp, the three letter ones.

Trump (a NY liberal) was the last hurrah before the USA takes a sharp turn to the left.

Good thing we righties can look after ourselves no matter what insanity the left gets up to.

I am writing from a country far away from North America, one of the 3 or 4 places where I will spend my last 20 years under the radar, so don’t bother telling me to leave, I have.

The people here are quite enjoying my spending, as am I.

The weather is much nicer here too.

#21 Søren Angst on 11.13.22 at 1:37 pm

“November sucks. Dark. Cheerless. Time change. Cold and wet. Snow, yuck.”

– Disgruntled Igloo/Ark Dweller

——————-

“CBs will stop killing us in a few months.”

– Garth

I disagree Garth. Energy prices will see to that.

All I see is prolonged inflation misery as long as the CBs persist in

Rates < Inflation

unless, it's different this time … for John Q. Public

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1591861877415772160

I agree on the markets. As long as earnings keep doing what they are doing, Mr. Market will be fine esp.

yeah oil

————-

Still, I admire your "upbeatness" for John Q. Public, I just don't see it.

I do see it for Mr. Market.

Nicely written Garth.

#22 Summertime on 11.13.22 at 1:46 pm

Appreciate the upbeat ‘stay invested’ message and yet:

1. CPI is at 7-8 % real inflation of necessities double that.

2. Rates are sub 4 %, i.e. we still have strongly negative real rates, they should be strongly in double digits in order to fight inflation.

3. Inflation is not going away anytime soon.

4. Hot job market means wage inflationary pressure

5. Historical changes in monetary policies imply reversal in asset prices trends, i.e. decline after years of ‘growth’.

6. We are at peak debt.

Where will the growth come from in service based, consumption driven, peak debt, inflation ridden ‘economy’.

What will drive the consumption/real economy up in such environment?

After years of leveraging, years of deleveraging follow.
This is how the economy/credit cycle works and ever will.

Anything else is fallacy/utter BS based on continuous inflation and credit growth that will break this economy, it is a certainty.

I am 100 % in inflation protected assets and intend to stay there in the next decade.

And the always positive stock market view of this blog is becoming kind of boring.

This is not how markets work.

#23 Søren Angst on 11.13.22 at 1:49 pm

Off Topic

SAILING TIP FOR the Strait of Juan de Fuca

Hundredth monkey effect

&

7 Frustrated Diners …

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1591754846520107010

– Italia warns Coastal BC 🍁

#24 cuke and tomato picker on 11.13.22 at 1:51 pm

It will be NICE to see TRUMP on the way out. Hopefully
his base will shrink, dry up and eventually evaporate.

#25 People for Bernie on 11.13.22 at 1:59 pm

If you want to know where things are going in the USA, here is the “People for Bernie” socialist organization not so subtly telling Elon Musk he better watch out because criticizing Democratic Senators could be harmful to him. I remember when socialists at least pretended to be against authoritarianism: https://twitter.com/People4Bernie/status/1591815621297463296?s=20&t=2451aOZy2qQtL3XjhX-VBA

#26 the Jaguar on 11.13.22 at 2:00 pm

The lumber prices chart is awesome. Killing demand appears to be working.

Elon Musk knew the swamp he was wading into when he bought Twitter and he’s not the type to fade like daisy in the desert of schadenfreude. Watching what he does with it will be fascinating. He has an unsinkable quality about him.

As for what’s going on south of the border or in other locales, I always liked what Jack Weil had to say…..”Sometimes in poker it’s smarter to lose with a winning hand so you can win later with a losing hand. And politicians can never quite believe that – because they want the power now.” Sometimes counting chickens before they hatch and come home to roost results in ‘egg on face’ as well.

#27 Summertime on 11.13.22 at 2:00 pm


#18 35Mugen on 11.13.22 at 1:02 pm
Hey Garth, any insight into why I just spotted a 3 pack of Andy Boy Romain Lettuce for $16.99 here in Markham when these used to cost $3.99 a pack? Is Romain the one produce that encapsulates everything that’s gone sideways from fertilizer, truck driver, and fuel costs?

It is just an example about the constant lies about the CPI and real inflation.

Energy is down from the top.

Fertilizer prices are derivatives of natural gas/potassium/also down from the top.

But hey, stay invested and you will be just fine.

#28 Søren Angst on 11.13.22 at 2:00 pm

#18 35Mugen

+ Olives = fun project for you.

https://twitter.com/jimrosecircus1/status/1587451254388703233

Awhile ago, I submitted the above to Garth for a Blog photo with a change to Flora photography as opposed to always Fauna.

Didn’t go anywhere.

Imagine that?

#29 Linda on 11.13.22 at 2:05 pm

‘Skip’ is undoubtedly sniffing out better things to come:)

Waiting to hear what the latest official inflation numbers are for Canada. While things like lumber or gas may have dropped in price, food prices remain at elevated levels. The prairies had a decent crop this year; hopefully 2023 will see better climatic conditions throughout the world or food prices will continue to increase even if other supply chain issues are resolved.

#30 Summertime on 11.13.22 at 2:06 pm

#8 Wait There on 11.13.22 at 11:49 am
In what world is 7.7% inflation cool?

That is the ‘official CPI’.

In what world real inflation of necessities double that is cool? And ‘investment’ that is down in nominal terms from the top 15-20 % in real terms, counting real inflation – 30 % loss of purchasing power ‘great’?

Can somebody please point out how much is the ‘indexation’ of CPP and OAS?

#31 Marvin on 11.13.22 at 2:12 pm

Agent friend of mine has now hosted 3 open houses at this listing. Along with some rather desperate pleas on social media for people to actually come to the home. Price reduced from 1.3 to 1.18, and still bupkis. The reality of ‘normal’ interest rates is about to hit Canadian house lust like a freight train. Tiff should be fired for telling Canadians that low rates were here to stay. Anybody with half a brain should’ve anticipated inflation and higher rates.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24994165/1572-litchfield-road-oakville

#32 Axehead on 11.13.22 at 2:13 pm

Agree with most, except “no generational debt crisis”. $500,000,000,000+ is a yuge number. Double the existing debt. More than all governmental debt since the beginning of this Dominion. And normalizing interest rates. Perhaps no apparent ‘crisis’ now, but a huge expensive white elephant for another generation to deal with.

#33 chalkie on 11.13.22 at 2:24 pm

For the Real Estate Market, pour oil on the troubled waters, we do not just have a little way to fall, but quite a ways yet before the bottom values are found in real estate.

Sure, people will continue to ask high prices for properties, it’s human nature, but asking and getting runs at 180 degrees in this type of downward market.

The major difference between market value and asking price is that the market value, in the eyes of the seller, might be much less than what a buyer will pay for the property or it’s true market price. Value can create demand, which can influence price.

2023 will turn a lot of heads as the screws tighten in real estate, lumber prices stayed on the shelves until the 2×4’s were only good to make bows and became unless to make the arrows, home listings will now do the same, time does wonders.

Recent upgrades to your $150,000 renovations, you are going to get less than your neighbor’s selling price, even though your house or your condo is superior to that of your neighbor’s, those days are not just gone for a while, but gone forever, accept the reality and move on.

Quote of the day: Kindness is the language which the deaf can hear and the blind can see

#34 VladTor on 11.13.22 at 2:30 pm

Garth
American stats also strong with virtual full employment in place. We have never contemplated a bad recession with job strength like this.

———–
Forecast is not so sweat and far away from optimism!

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/economy/jobs-recession-unemployment/index.html

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/07/tech/meta-layoffs/index.html

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/this-tsunami-of-tech-layoffs-could-soon-be-the-largest-we-have-ever-seen/

#35 Niagara Region on 11.13.22 at 2:30 pm

RE: PRIMARY DRIVER OF INFLATION
During a US House of Representatives hearing last month, Congresswomen Katie Porter reported that the biggest driver of current inflation in the US is corporate profit. 54% of the increase in prices is due to corporate profits:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/over-half-of-the-increased-prices-people-are-paying-come-from-increases-in-corporate-profits-katie-porter-grills-macroeconomics-expert/ar-AA139Z62

#36 fishman on 11.13.22 at 2:35 pm

Lumber may be down, but lumber is just wood thats been run through a Canadian sawmill. You see theres this big old dirty Chinese freighter crab walking through a tight spot in Johnstome Straights. Fighting a big tide in the middle of a dark & stormy night. Making about 6 knots with engine speed at 13. Filled the hatch with logs in Port Alberni & then had come around to Nanaimo for a deck load. On top of the logs was this crazy contraption of nailed 2×4’s for a catwalk so the crew could get the anchors. All is well for B.C. lumber companies. Logs going to China. Sawmills curtailing production & laying off workers. Dividends & share buybacks rolling in.

#37 Victor Llearna on 11.13.22 at 2:37 pm

Those stupid sheep that paid a fortune for worthless NFTs are learning lesson.

NFT = Needs Financial Tutoring

#38 ElGatoNeroYVR on 11.13.22 at 2:45 pm

Today still is a gift. Don’t blow it.
===========
Words to live by . Sometimes we tend to forget that our time is limited and we worry too much about the future at the expense of the present.
If one stays positive and balanced all around ( from finances ,investing to state of mind and relationships) the future has a way to sort itself out in a good way.

#39 Summertime on 11.13.22 at 2:56 pm

https://www.kantar.com/uki/inspiration/fmcg/2022-wp-uk-grocery-price-inflation-hits-record-14-7-and-still-too-early-to-call-the-ceiling

UK grocery price inflation hits record 14.7% and still too early to call the ceiling

For anyone who does not eat, drive or pay bills, life is just fine and inflation is under control….

And hey, that lettuce pack going from 4 to 17 bucks is not inflation, it is something else apparently.

And rents going up 20 -25 % in a tear is not inflation apparently, as ‘CPI is under 7 %
hysterical laugher ensued.

I have seen lies and lies but this is becoming simply pathetic. Come with something else, you central banker buys…

#40 Glad it’s over on 11.13.22 at 2:57 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth

To be honest I thought the economy was going to roll over during Covid. And thankfully I hung on.
This year down over 20 percent at the worst.
I hung on.

Looked at my TFSA yesterday wow a gain almost 5 percent YTD, well until Algonquin Power rolled over on Friday.

My TFSA all stocks

Now my wife’s RRSP is balanced and still down 10 percent.

I would like to ask a question about Bonds
If interest rates stay high how can bond prices ever recover?

Thanks for reading have a great week everyone.

#41 Derth on 11.13.22 at 3:00 pm

Rates need to go higher. As soon as they drop people will go crazy on houses again. In my circle people still don’t get it and think housing goes on forever. We need to break the cash cow housing mentality with high rates to make it unattractive to those leveraging to the nuts. Or don’t, and our kids are doomed

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.13.22 at 3:05 pm

@#12 Pickled Ponzies Predicament
“Pickle ball, here I come.
No fancy equipment needed.”
+++
No uniform?
Couldnt make the team?
Sad.
So sad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bir8KtbOvhE

#43 al on 11.13.22 at 3:28 pm

CB rates at half the rate of inflation will tame inflation? I thought it wasn’t different this time, guess it is.

The CB rate is not going from 0.25% to 7%. – Garth

#44 Scott in Gibsons on 11.13.22 at 4:03 pm

…..and no more hinting about ending this blog due to mean comments. Welcome back

#45 IHCTD9 on 11.13.22 at 4:08 pm

#18 35Mugen on 11.13.22 at 1:02 pm

Hey Garth, any insight into why I just spotted a 3 pack of Andy Boy Romain Lettuce for $16.99 here in Markham when these used to cost $3.99 a pack? Is Romain the one produce that encapsulates everything that’s gone sideways from fertilizer, truck driver, and fuel costs?
——-

Lol, that’s insane! I saw the same brand here except 6.50 for 3. I left ‘em there, bought Cabbage instead for .50/lb.

We’re in a time right now where I think we’re all getting hosed. I buy burgers and sausages from a small butcher in town. They were always expensive, but nothing around touches these guys for quality and selection of meat. They bring in big chunks of cow and pig, and do it up right there from scratch. The price hasn’t wavered a dime since 2019, and I’ve never seen the place so busy. How come the grocery stores are cranking prices, and the little independent butcher shop hasn’t had to?

#46 crossbordershopper on 11.13.22 at 4:11 pm

As i met up with an old workmate and her husband this afternoon, they told me that they have been in canada now 20 years now and they with a straight face said, its a prison with better food and worse weather.
They should of stayed in the phillipines, better family relations, better weather and even though they trade in higher currency in Canada its a worse life. The income and expenses are both relative and they almost have nothing where in the phillipines they had nothing, but they sacraficed and tried to better there family to come here. In retrospect they said it wasnt worth it. Once 65 they will do the six month here and there. and enjoy the rest of there life, probably where they belong. A flower best where it was planted, this crazy immigration levels in Canada only increase GDP for the corporations, depress wage growth, and dont better the people who were effectively lied to to come here. who else would. My opinion might be bad but when someone I know, albeit I havent been too much in touch for past two years, time passes and oportunities dont exist. Say what you already know, its kinda sad.
all of these macro issues about interest rates and stuff have little to do with the little people who work every day for cummulative total of next to nothing.
75% of the Canadian adult population has a net worth less than 250K cdn. not very much.

#47 Mosey on 11.13.22 at 4:29 pm

Oil and gold will do quite well as the US dollar starts to unwind. There’s a helluva ways down to go yet in the broad indexes. Dead cat market bounces are normal, and they fool a lot of investors. There’s a helluva ways down to go yet. Be cautious of those who insist otherwise. History is your friend if you take time to study past bear markets.

The US$ is not unwinding. The current bear market is 153 days old. The last one (2020) was 33 days. The average since 1921 is 330 days. History tells us little. If investors seem reasons for optimism, the bear exits. – Garth

#48 TurnerNation on 11.13.22 at 4:43 pm

On the next episode of “When Good Kandos Turn Bad (they all do)”.
A ~14 year old kando bloc in my prefecture is having all of its balcony glass replaced.

—–
If you want some proof that the TeeVee runs your mind ask whatever happened to ‘monekypox’? Exactly. It no longer exists on your TeeVee.

——————–
When I talk about our Global Government (the coup happened in March 2020) what do I mean? And all the dissenters were booted out of office in Jan 2021 under the excuse of ‘holiday travel’
Geez remember when all this was just an Internet Consp. Theory??

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/dan-fumano-vancouver-council-approves-undrip-strategy
Dan Fumano: After debate, outgoing Vancouver council approves ‘groundbreaking’ UNDRIP strategy
Analysis: With Vancouver’s UNDRIP strategy approved, outgoing Mayor Kennedy Stewart said he looks forward to seeing how the city’s next council will handle key decisions.

#49 NOSTRADAMUS on 11.13.22 at 4:46 pm

THE ITCH THAT NEEDS SCRATCHING!
Recession-depression, inflation-deflation, war-nuclear winter-peace, stocks up- stocks down, real estate going down hard. I’m just starting to think that it’s just some part of the brain that stimulates a reptilian sense of danger. But since most of us don’t wander into mine fields or get too much excitement from our daily lives, we read Garth’s Daily Blog to provide that itch that so needs scratching. I’m just a fly on the wall taking viewers behind the scenes.

#50 Søren Angst on 11.13.22 at 4:59 pm

#46 crossbordershopper

75% of the Canadian adult population has a net worth less than 250K cdn. not very much.

—————–

Inform yourself better.

2019 Wealth Stats, Economic Families, Individuals – Net Worth

Average = $329,900/person
Median = $738,200

Total Net Worth 2019 of Canadians

= $11.75 Trillion

Total Net Worth 2022 Q2 of Canadians

= $15.22 Trillion

————

Slice and dice the databases on your own …

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1110001601

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610066001

#51 espressobob on 11.13.22 at 5:01 pm

Global index investing is the way to go. Done by all the greats.

Trading in individual stocks or commodity plays like PMs or crypto leads to heartbreak.

Why is this so hard to figure? Ego can be a disease for those who engage in it and will never acknowledge their mistakes.

#52 Søren Angst on 11.13.22 at 5:07 pm

#34 VladTor

And how is Russia doing?

Russia’s Economic Development Ministry forecasts the country’s GDP to contract 2.9% in 2022 and 0.8% in 2023, and to grow 2.6% in both 2024 and 2025.

The Central Bank of Russia’s current forecast, unveiled in July, is for a 4-6% decline in 2022 and a drop of 1-4% in 2023 but growth of 1.5%-2.5% in 2024.

Kremlin Da Vinci Code for:

SNAFU and we think the war will be over by 2024 when we will have finally regrouped within our own borders (the old ones, not the fake annexed ones).

#53 Regjeg on 11.13.22 at 5:08 pm

Trump’s in the rear view mirror. Inflation hasn’t made it there yet, still in the side view mirror (at best).

#54 under the radar on 11.13.22 at 5:10 pm

18- Its a mistake . 6.99 for a three pack any where. Nice try.

#55 Leaf blowers build community - crank 'em up! on 11.13.22 at 5:14 pm

“Today still is a gift. Don’t blow it.”

Just be sure to LEAF BLOW it!!

Get your leaf blower gassed up and running, it’s almost time for your neighbours’ Sunday dinner!

#56 Søren Angst on 11.13.22 at 5:27 pm

#40 Glad it’s over

Buy high yield Cdn ETFs and the same on the US side.

Cushions the blow.

+2% on my threadbare portfolio value YTD.

Much higher YTD return when I factor in am average YTD dividend yield of:

27.9%

Lewenza recommended get into dividends late last year + get out of growth stocks and into value stocks. He was correct for PALEO me. Was he ever.

———–

If YOUNG, Rowat awhile ago recommended Cdn oil, pipeline stocks. YTD stock price gains (+7% to +76%):

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ENB:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATRP%2CTSE%3ASU%2CTSE%3APPL%2CTSE%3ACVE&window=YTD

+

a dividend yield range of

+ 1.5% to 6.25% dividend yield

If you want an oil ETF instead of single stock picks get either NXF for more divs than price appreciation (Paleo preferred) or NXF.B for higher price appreciation than divs (Longer Life Duration approved).

————–

The advice Garth et. al. gives out for free here is Golden, you just have to listen to them and put their recommendations into action.

#57 VladTor on 11.13.22 at 5:34 pm

Hi Garth,

Your PRIVATE opinion is interesting. Will the government save sooner or later Ontario Teachers Pension Fund (which is converted now in Ontario Teachers Pension FUN) after the collapse of the FTX crypto?

No. It does not need saving. Just a kick in the conscience. – Garth

#58 Sail Away on 11.13.22 at 5:35 pm

#54 under the radar on 11.13.22 at 5:10 pm

18- Its a mistake . 6.99 for a three pack any where.

—————

Romaine is $5.99 for 6 at Costco. Just had a romaine, pecans, craisins, canned salmon, ranch dressing salad for lunch. All items from Costco. Delish.

And the stock rocks. Shawn, this belongs as #4 along with rockstars FTS, CN, and RY. Buy all, never sell.

#59 The Original Jake on 11.13.22 at 5:38 pm

#8 Wait There on 11.13.22 at 11:49 am
In what world is 7.7% inflation cool?

All relative. The market will not wait for “cold”, it moves on anticipation. Still too early to declare victory but that’s how the market works. Next month CPI better be down again or else…

#60 Polecat on 11.13.22 at 6:10 pm

I’m off to Vegas to free Adele, the world needs her.

#61 Tony on 11.13.22 at 6:14 pm

Re: #27 Summertime on 11.13.22 at 2:00 pm

Maybe he shops at the Garden Basket. I usually shop at No Frills or Food Basics. The last time I ate lettuce I was about 18 months old. I haven’t ate vegetables since I was about 2 years old.

#62 Shawn on 11.13.22 at 6:36 pm

Soren Angst

Total Net Worth 2022 Q2 of Canadians

= $15.22 Trillion

***************************

Now, now. THAT does not fit with the doomer narrative. Might cause a few heads to explode. Especially when you give a link with the data. Nasty!

#63 Grunt on 11.13.22 at 6:52 pm

Harry Styles in Cali & MX. Nowhere near.

#64 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.22 at 6:56 pm

Retirement age in China:
Men 60
“white” collar women 55
Manual labor woman 50.
Been like this for 70 years.
Freedom 55, the Chinese way.
Xi (She) will incrementally increase.
Huge potential for increase in productivity.

#65 Unpinned on 11.13.22 at 6:58 pm

Here in Alberta folks are still filling up their pick-up trucks. Covid has left a lot of vacant signs in retail and commercial. Meat is costly so now we share one chicken breast per meal and extend the package of chicken from one meal to three meals. Beans make up the lost protein from the chicken. Beef is a luxury.

#66 Nonplused on 11.13.22 at 6:59 pm

#50 Søren Angst on 11.13.22 at 4:59 pm
#46 crossbordershopper

75% of the Canadian adult population has a net worth less than 250K cdn. not very much.

—————–

Inform yourself better.

2019 Wealth Stats, Economic Families, Individuals – Net Worth

Average = $329,900/person
Median = $738,200

Total Net Worth 2019 of Canadians

= $11.75 Trillion

Total Net Worth 2022 Q2 of Canadians

= $15.22 Trillion

————————————–

“Net worth” is only a number on a spreadsheet, brought to you through the magic of “mark to market”.

The one consistent thing about Ponzi schemes is that they work pretty good until someone wants to cash out. Then the whole thing collapses.

If the housing market in Canada corrects by 50%, a large portion of that $15.22 trillion will just magically disappear, same as how it magically appeared in the first place.

The Canadian housing market has had all the fundamentals of a Ponzi scheme for some time. It depends on an influx of new participants. The wealth is created by marking existing assets at higher and higher prices. The first ones in made all the money. And there is no way to liquidate on mass.

But don’t worry, people are tossing around new plans to tax it! That should help. Help it collapse, that is.

#67 Nonplused on 11.13.22 at 7:07 pm

“Gas prices are down.”

Hmmm, I wonder why that is? Could it be something to do with the fact that Biden sold off 1/3 of the US strategic reserves? How long can he keep doing that? Certainly no more than 2/3’s more. And how long can China stay shut in before they say “screw it”?

Oh ya, and winter is coming.

#68 pBrasseur on 11.13.22 at 7:07 pm

Romspen Investment Corps., a mortgage private lender, has deferred payments on its main fund because too many people stopped paying their mortgages. Oups…

https://www.romspen.com/about/

https://www.mpamag.com/ca/specialty/specialized-lending/romspen-halts-redemptions-on-its-largest-fund/427060

Things are looking up for the biggest bubble in the world (outside China), no doubt!

This thing is just getting started, it will take years and yes it is a generational shift.

#69 Wrk.dover on 11.13.22 at 7:11 pm

#61 Tony on 11.13.22 at 6:14 pm
The last time I ate lettuce…..
_________________________________

Some lettuce, especially my wife’s passive solar greenhouse grown late winter varieties, is good, but, romaine caused the invention of bulimia.

Invest in a greenhouse too, sloped glazing 50% area in ratio to floor area, with tons of outside insulated mass, long and narrow sunk below grade on the south face of a building.

Victory garden.

#70 Faron on 11.13.22 at 7:21 pm

#99 Dharma Bum on 11.13.22 at 10:44 am
#77 Faron

Also, congratulations on doing a 100 miler. Impressive. I don’t think I could hack that

Thanks. I think anyone could if they have the time and the perverse desire. Most people don’t. I was training about 20 hours a week tops. But training meant going for long, easy run hikes in the mountains to see places I love, pacing friends in their 100s, and the odd long race. I trained to finish, not be competitive.

Anyhow, my 100s were a while ago. Can’t really rest on those laurels any longer.

Have fun in AZ if you are still there. Check out some of the little mining towns out hwy 60 if you haven’t already.

#71 Faron on 11.13.22 at 7:51 pm

#100 Sail Away on 11.13.22 at 11:41 am
#99 Dharma Bum on 11.13.22 at 10:44 am
#77 Faron

I have a fair bit of mountaineering experience with technical ascents in the Canadian Rocky Mountains and in the Washington and Oregon Cascades. I have spent roughly a year of my life (in total) on glaciers. I have thousands of kilometers on icy trails under my belt. Still, I am not a certified mountain guide and Sail Away is clearly much further from one than I.

By encouraging people to rely on microspikes for steep, icy, rocky and treeless slopes (luge run) where a fall could lead to a slide, and a slide to dangerous consequence, Sail Away is giving horrible advice. If the conditions are truly that dangerous (I actually doubt it) you need a helmet and ice axe. Microspikes will give false confidence and lead people to sketch up a slope and put themselves at risk of a bad slide if they stumble, or worse, the spikes pop off at a critical moment as they are prone to doing.

Microspikes are intended to keep people upright over flattish terrain and have no business in “the mountains”. There’s a reason Black Diamond advises as much.

For pedestrian use only. Traction devices provide additional
traction when walking, running, or working on ice, packed snow,
and frozen ground. Understand and accept the risks involved
before participating. Traction equipment will not eliminate
the inherent risks and dangers posed by the performance of
any activities in such conditions. This product is not intended
for climbing or mountaineering.

Emphasis mine. Yes, people die in the mountains. It’s almost always from poor experience and knowledge including crap advice from people like Sail Away. One of the biggest dangers is gear that gives false confidence (cell phones) leading to people taking risks they don’t realize they are taking.

Get experience before gear. If, while gaining experience, you feel uncomfortable, back off. If you are dedicated, get instruction and or learn the risks and self-teach.

Sail Away has zero clue here.

Stick to recommending pants vs no pants.

#72 Faron on 11.13.22 at 8:05 pm

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.13.22 at 10:41 am
The Democrats MAINTAIN control of the Senate.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-keep-control-us-senate-crush-republican-red-wave-hopes-2022-11-13/

Trump IS the BIGGEST LOSER!

Awesome news.

Love to see it. Assuming Warnock wins, that will be a one seat gain for the Dems. Turns out Sail Away’s bleating about a swing to the right was a SAGI. Shrug.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.22 at 8:07 pm

#67 Nonplused on 11.13.22 at 7:07 pm
“Gas prices are down.”

Hmmm, I wonder why that is? Could it be something to do with the fact that Biden sold off 1/3 of the US strategic reserves? How long can he keep doing that? Certainly no more than 2/3’s more. And how long can China stay shut in before they say “screw it”?

Oh ya, and winter is coming.
———————
Down 13 cents from yesterday.
All the stations that I passed this morning.
Like magic.
Must be the invisible hand pulling a trigger.

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.22 at 8:15 pm

#67 Nonplused on 11.13.22 at 7:07 pm
“Gas prices are down.”

Hmmm, I wonder why that is? Could it be something to do with the fact that Biden sold off 1/3 of the US strategic reserves? How long can he keep doing that? Certainly no more than 2/3’s more. And how long can China stay shut in before they say “screw it”?

Oh ya, and winter is coming.
——————
I’m picked up some lime, mushroom manure and garden soil, and build a compost pile with leaves from my trees and bushes.
Starting to develop a plan to built up and extend the garden.
And gonna fire up my little greenhouse in January.
Gonna have me some nice, organic lettuce in about May.
Inflation?

#75 Sail Away on 11.13.22 at 8:31 pm

#71 Faron on 11.13.22 at 7:51 pm

By encouraging people to rely on microspikes for steep, icy, rocky and treeless slopes (luge run) where a fall could lead to a slide, and a slide to dangerous consequence, Sail Away is giving horrible advice.

It’s almost always from poor experience and knowledge including crap advice from people like Sail Away.

Sail Away has zero clue here.

—————

Haha. It’s not my advice, actually. I just follow Nanaimo Search and Rescue’s advice for Mt Benson winter hikers, as follows:

“As a reminder, conditions are extremely icy at higher elevations and weather can change quickly during these winter months,” the search and rescue team wrote in its Facebook post. “Plan ahead, leave a trip plan, and ensure your winter hiking essential gear contains items like micro spikes or trail crampons.”

https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/vancouver-island/2021/1/24/1_5280187.html

Don’t worry, though, F: i’m fairly good friends with the team lead and forwarded your expert advice and claimed credentials to him. You’re becoming well known up here!

#76 DON on 11.13.22 at 8:37 pm

#36 fishman on 11.13.22 at 2:35 pm
Lumber may be down, but lumber is just wood thats been run through a Canadian sawmill. You see theres this big old dirty Chinese freighter crab walking through a tight spot in Johnstome Straights. Fighting a big tide in the middle of a dark & stormy night. Making about 6 knots with engine speed at 13. Filled the hatch with logs in Port Alberni & then had come around to Nanaimo for a deck load. On top of the logs was this crazy contraption of nailed 2×4’s for a catwalk so the crew could get the anchors. All is well for B.C. lumber companies. Logs going to China. Sawmills curtailing production & laying off workers. Dividends & share buybacks rolling in.

*********Used to see them loading in Ladysmith. And then there are the barges on the West Coast of Vancouver Island. The wood from the store is crap compared with the Gravy being exported in prime logs.

#77 VladTor on 11.13.22 at 8:37 pm

#50 Søren Angst on 11.13.22 at 4:59 pm

Inform yourself better.
___________

Average = $ xxxx/person
Median = $yyyy

Informing us about nothing.

Simple – you have income 1000000, I have 20000
Average – $60000. Ha-ha-ha. Can you give me 40000?

Other.

Average temperature all patients in hospital 36.6 Celsius. May be should send all patients to home?

Stat data not divided by income range – stupid and just game of number.

#78 Summertime on 11.13.22 at 9:04 pm

If the CB rate is not going to double digits, dog forbid the miserable 7 % (real inflation is double that IMHO) then inflation is here to stay for a very long time and could even accelerate and the last thing we would worry about is stock market and house valuations.

To easy debt through controlled inflation meaningfully in order to reset the debt Ponzi scheme we would need at least 4-5 years of minus 8-10 % real rates, or 10-15 of minus 3-4 %. That if no new debt is generated which is impossible.

The problem is how to control that inflation and how quickly after that return to ‘normal’ will the debt explode higher again.

One of the results from high inflation is that standard of living dives very quickly and we see that clearly in the UK at the moment which is a little ahead of us in the game. It is coming in other places, there is no doubt about that.

The valuations hence and the numbers behind the ‘net worth’ are meaningless and laughable as it is primarily due to ultra inflated houses and majority of houses are just places to live, i.e. not a market commodity as it can not be cashed en masse as it is just a necessity.

The ‘wealth generation’ though ever increasing debt scheme is laughable, with the significant economy contraction due to covid, due to increased debt we had higher net worth, something like 500 billions in additional debt generated several trillions of new ‘net worth’ and as a result, we became richer….

Why don’t we just generate additional a trillion or two of new debt and get 10 trillions of new, additional ‘wealth’? And then repeat?

Oh wait, we have been doing this for the last 20 years, first personal and then government debt and ever increasing, close to exponential rate.

But apparently the perpetum mobile debt machine has come to a halt and now we face the deleveraging, which if real will have to erase most of the fake valuations.

The alternative is to keep generating debt which will make the 16.99 lettuce pack look like a bargain some time down the road.

If we truly deleverage, then we could easily lose 70-80 % of house values and 50-60 % of stock market valuations from the top.

It seems many people here are convinced that this will not happen, so prepare accordingly.

The outcome from not truly deleveraging will be persistent high inflation that will quickly eat any remaining standard of living and make living in the big cities practically impossible which is becoming daily reality for more and more people as wages can not keep up with real inflation.

We will see for how long will the giving/overwhelming majority part of the society – the retirees and young people, the average labour tolerate that.

Watch UK which is ahead of us by a few months and know what to anticipate in the very near future.

#79 Catalyst on 11.13.22 at 9:10 pm

Despite the optimism in the market last week, my base case is a long slow burn down to 3k-3200 on S&P500. I think we get there by next april.

#80 Shawn on 11.13.22 at 9:15 pm

Summertime complains about inflation

For goodness sakes, can’t you just start shopping at Dollarama?

By the way Dollarama is an enormous Canadian success story. Highly profitable. Almost certainly the best run Dollar store chain in North America. Financially they were advised before the IPO by Bain Capital. Who came up with their overall format and model, I do not know.

It was probably largely the Rossy family founders. It grew out of an earlier variety store format and the first Dollrama opened in Quebec in 1992.

They sell stuff cheap and yet the gross margin is about 43%. Do the math, that’s a 75% markup over cost, where cost already includes freight and even rent.

A win for customers and a win for investors.

The average person will have something disrespectful to say about them. Smarter people will see what they can learn from this success story. All hail Dollarama!

Look up their stock chart since the IPO and you may weep at the missed opportunity to invest back then.

#81 Shawn on 11.13.22 at 9:24 pm

Inflation Indexed Pensions

Just saw on Global that federal pensions which are fully indexed to official inflation are going up 6.3% in January.

Meanwhile they said federal workers are being offered something like 2%.

In New Brunswick the official inflation over the particular 12 month period they use is I believe they said 5.45%. They had some whiner on complaining bitterly that they are only going to get 5.24% and claiming pensions are deferred wages. In part they are but pensions also rely on growth of the deferred wages as invested. Unbelievable whiner!. DB pension providers shoulder the risk that the growth will not be enough but in the case of New Brunswick they removed full guaranteed indexing some years ago when the pension deficit got too massive. I think that is detailed in a book called “The Third Rail” (pensions being normally untouchable when it comes to such changes).

A lot of pensions including the Alberta government and municipal pensions are indexed at only 60% of official CPI. That’s going to bite over time but is still a heck of a lot better than nothing and is exactly what was promised in those plans.

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.22 at 9:29 pm

Sorry,
#74 is in response to 69
If you care.

#83 Bezengy on 11.13.22 at 9:31 pm

Here’s a really cool inflation buster for those hiring contractors. When you receive their invoice call the CRA and check to see if their HST number is legit. Could save you a cool 13 percent here in Ontario. This should only be used if you’re not planning on hiring the contractor to do any other work of course.

#84 Shawn on 11.13.22 at 9:44 pm

dollarama

A corection, I now read that apparently most of the rent is not in cost of goods sold. This may be a change or perhaps I misunderstood. It makes no sense to me anyhow that rent be in cost of goods sold.

If rent is variable with sales volume it is then in cost of goods sold. Apparently some of the rent works that way.

Anyhow this is neither here nor there. The point is Dollarama has a huge markup over costs and still sells at low prices.

It’s a fantastic business. One that Warren Buffett would love.

#85 Sail Away on 11.13.22 at 10:01 pm

This just in: Twitter scored a big new advertiser in Space Explorations, Inc.

Cool

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/11/14/spacex-just-bought-a-big-ad-campaign-on-twitter-for-starlink.html

#86 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.22 at 10:20 pm

Shaw the Dollarama afficiato.
You know that there are no return privileges?
Big cost saver.
I’m a selective shopper.
I buy 2 items at the store.
1 liter Pepsi ( I prefer Coke, but the price is too good to resist).
And my favorite guilty pleasure: CoffeeCrisp.
87 cents each.
The rest is mostly junk from the Middle Kingdom.
And in my estimation, about 70% of the people shopping there have a weight problem.

#87 Blaster on 11.13.22 at 10:23 pm

Has prices are only as high as they are due to government manipulation. $9 for a head of lettuce is outrageous because of government manipulation. We are subject to the sustainable development = climate taxation = third world reparation taxation because a very small group of bureaucratic weasels have wormed their way in. You are being frightened and scattered because you waste your vote on scoundrels. Climate and oil are a scammers paradise.

Either stop doing that or stop whining. As far as November weather is concerned, I love this time of year in Thailand. Sunshine every day. Swimming pool is perfect. A head of lettuce is a buck like always. A restaurant meal is $2.50. A sushi plate $ 1.00. I vote with my wallet. Still invested in Canada, but all the BS? No way. You’d have to be a drooling goober.. Wake up.

#88 Travelling on 11.13.22 at 11:00 pm

65 Unpinned on 11.13.22 at 6:58 pm
Here in Alberta folks are still filling up their pick-up trucks. Covid has left a lot of vacant signs in retail and commercial. Meat is costly so now we share one chicken breast per meal and extend the package of chicken from one meal to three meals. Beans make up the lost protein from the chicken. Beef is a luxury

———

Chicken breast in the Big C grocery store in Bangkok, Thailand is 85 Thai baht/kg or roughly $3.09/kg Canadian. Definitely no labour shortages here. Tons of employees in the stores. Most seem redundant from an efficiency perspective. How profitable are the businesses here to allow for that?

On a side note, I’m eating here like a glutton.

#89 Michael in-north-york on 11.13.22 at 11:12 pm

“The Russians put their ratty tails between their legs and marched – or skedaddled – out of a key Ukrainian city they’d held since Putin’s mad war began. The tide has turned. There will be come kind of resolution in 2023.”

Great victory for the Ukrainians.

But will there be a resolution in 2023? Let’s not bet on that. The war will drag on for as long as Putin remains in Kremlin. If he gets kicked out, the war will end within days. Might be done before the end of 2022, if the stars are aligned right.

But if kremlinfuhrer remains in place, the war will go on. Maybe for many months, maybe for more than a year.

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.22 at 11:30 pm

#87 Blaster on 11.13.22 at 10:23 pm
Has prices are only as high as they are due to government manipulation. $9 for a head of lettuce is outrageous because of government manipulation. We are subject to the sustainable development = climate taxation = third world reparation taxation because a very small group of bureaucratic weasels have wormed their way in. You are being frightened and scattered because you waste your vote on scoundrels. Climate and oil are a scammers paradise.

Either stop doing that or stop whining. As far as November weather is concerned, I love this time of year in Thailand. Sunshine every day. Swimming pool is perfect. A head of lettuce is a buck like always. A restaurant meal is $2.50. A sushi plate $ 1.00. I vote with my wallet. Still invested in Canada, but all the BS? No way. You’d have to be a drooling goober.. Wake up.
—————————
Do you raise a family there?
Or are you just a loner looking for some cheap fun?

#91 Shawn on 11.13.22 at 11:32 pm

Dollarama no returns policy

Ponzius, that’s right and it’s one of the smartest features of dollarama.

The stuff is cheap so no big deal for customers. Can you imagine the hassle of taking returns? What do you do with returned opened product? Most would get tossed out. No returns is better for the profit and better for the environment. Don’t like it? Don’t shop there, they have lots of customers. The type of customer that returns things at any retailer other than very occasionally is unprofitable anyhow.

#92 Faron on 11.13.22 at 11:56 pm

#75 Sail Away on 11.13.22 at 8:31 pm
#71 Faron on 11.13.22 at 7:51 pm

Ba hahahahahaaaah! I’m amazed that you have been ignoring me so hard as to have whined about getting told on the internet to your “friends”.

Regardless, cool and thanks. I welcome dialogue with people who know what the hell they are doing. In fact, I thrive on it. Please have him get in touch. Although, I reckon this is bluster coming from you.

I’m, uh, highly comfortable with my skill-set and the advice I give others. Using microspikes on steep and icy terrain is outside of their design envelope. Get skills before you get gear. If there’s a risk of a fall that could result in injury and you are inexperienced, you should protect your skull.

Looking forward to meeting your pal.

#93 Faron on 11.14.22 at 12:04 am

#85 Sail Away on 11.13.22 at 10:01 pm
This just in: Twitter scored a big new advertiser in Space Explorations, Inc.

Cool

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/11/14/spacex-just-bought-a-big-ad-campaign-on-twitter-for-starlink.html

Wait. There’s no other way to phrase this except: are you actually this dumb? Just as Twitter cannibalized the market cap of Tesla, I hope you see that Elon robbing his Peter to pay his Paul is a zero sum effort. You do, right?

Maybe don’t wear a helmet. Ever. Nothing to protect upstairs, so just give ‘er. JFC

#94 Fresh food fanatic on 11.14.22 at 12:13 am

Travelling #88

Right on the days price for chicken breast at Big C ( it’s a Bangkok area Superstore for those who wonder) , but I can’t eat a kilo at a sitting. I usually buy two large chicken breast and that costs on average B 47 which is approx $ 1.50 +/-. But even that’s too much and my wife will turn the roasted chicken ( yes we have a full fleet of appliances) into a soup or salad for snacking . So yes, eating is cheap here, there’s no reason to gorge, it’s always cheap.

We mostly eat home cooking opposed to Ahan Thai ( Thai style) on ultra modern facilities because eating on the street is a game if Russian Roulette due to the heat and fast growing bacteria and the many unhealthy additives Thai love to consume for extra sour, hot, sweet and sometimes wierd . Borax and MSG go into almost every type of street food.

A head of organic lettuce is B 30 ( can be cheaper in a fresh market) around $ 1. That’s plenty for a great meal. Of course we have a lot of fresh herbs and spices. A kilo bag of french fries is around $1.00. Thats expensive compared to rice because Thai don’t eat that much foreign food. However exotic there are at least 100 varieties of rice, from white to red to blue, with various starch content for different dishes.

In my area, which is very local with few foreigners there are market kitchens that will cook to order, and that’s how super heathy and specialties like Chile Papaya ( Som Tam) Salad or amazing noodle dishes, fish fries and soup can be had. If you’re just feeling lazy food ordered by delivery from the same vendors can be dropped off no extra charge.

There’s a lot more life here which is why we chose to relocate here. But with the proviso that it takes time to learn the ins and outs, plus speaking the language is a must when your as seperate from the tourist market as we are ..approx 79 km from BKK.

#95 Dr V on 11.14.22 at 1:39 am

Actually, Luge runs aren’t all that steep. 8% ave, 15% max for this one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lillehammer_Olympic_Bobsleigh_and_Luge_Track

I should get these and see if I can ride it.

https://www.slipnottraction.com/

Wondering if I should wear a helmet. I might go slower if I don’t. That makes sense, right?

Sailo – Benson’s prominence was belittled earlier. It actually has more prominence than Lhotse. Why not give that “hill” a go! Take my Sherpa if you like!

#96 Sail Away on 11.14.22 at 7:24 am

#95 Dr V on 11.14.22 at 1:39 am

Actually, Luge runs aren’t all that steep. 8% ave, 15% max for this one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lillehammer_Olympic_Bobsleigh_and_Luge_Track

I should get these and see if I can ride it.

https://www.slipnottraction.com/

Wondering if I should wear a helmet. I might go slower if I don’t. That makes sense, right?

Sailo – Benson’s prominence was belittled earlier. It actually has more prominence than Lhotse. Why not give that “hill” a go! Take my Sherpa if you like!

—————

Cool, thanks!

#97 Sail Away on 11.14.22 at 7:39 am

Re: Shawn and Dollarama

Yes, Dollarama is a great business. Also, for us, a case in point regarding Doug’s post about not selling winners. We held from 2013-2017 and then sold for good profit, planning to re-enter at a lower value; those lows came, but we never got around to buying.

In hindsight, our more evolved strategy of never selling and adding at lows would have been the better action.

To remedy, I intend to probably buy when markets open this morning. You know… depending…

#98 Sail Away on 11.14.22 at 7:58 am

#93 Faron on 11.14.22 at 12:04 am

Wait. There’s no other way to phrase this except: are you actually this dumb?

Maybe don’t wear a helmet. Ever. Nothing to protect upstairs, so just give ‘er. JFC

—————

I just checked and today, out of all comments, you are the only one insulting other commenters. Yesterday, you and Ustabe.

Do better. Nobody wants to see that.

#99 I don’t know on 11.14.22 at 7:58 am

Most bears have strong negative personality traits like cynicism, paranoia, fear, jealousy, and greed.

Everyone has these of course, but bears have a hard time seeing anything positive and overriding them.

Of course it wasn’t different this time. It never is.

IDK

#100 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.14.22 at 9:07 am

What’s the fascination with Head Lettuce?
It’s just water.
Which comes free from the tap.

#101 IHCTD9 on 11.14.22 at 9:16 am

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.22 at 11:30 pm
#87 Blaster on 11.13.22 at 10:23 pm

Either stop doing that or stop whining. As far as November weather is concerned, I love this time of year in Thailand. Sunshine every day. Swimming pool is perfect. A head of lettuce is a buck like always. A restaurant meal is $2.50. A sushi plate $ 1.00. I vote with my wallet. Still invested in Canada, but all the BS? No way. You’d have to be a drooling goober.. Wake up.
—————————
Do you raise a family there?
Or are you just a loner looking for some cheap fun?
______

C’mon Ponzie, it’s totally possible a guy might simply just want to retire in a warm cheap country no? You don’t need to move all the way to Thailand to get some “cheap fun”. I’d bet plenty is available right there in Van.

#102 Quintilian on 11.14.22 at 9:40 am

#99 I don’t know on 11.14.22 at 7:58 am
“Of course it wasn’t different this time. It never is.”

Yes, it wasn’t different this time, the old adage applies:
“a fool and his money are soon parted”

How is the RE business?

Is it time to cash in on all the crypto gains and buy some more RE in Chilliwack?

#103 jack on 11.14.22 at 10:08 am

so FTX went bankrupt and a ton of people lost their money. Reminds me of mt gox which went under in 2014. At which point I said anyone would have to be crazy to invest in cryptocurrency. History repeats. Seems like people have much shorter memories these days – must be tiktok.

#104 Tom from Mississauga on 11.14.22 at 10:10 am

So when will Garth weigh in on ESG and their scores wonders his adoring fans…
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/yu2jmf/sam_bankmanfrieds_fraudulent_ftx_got_a_higher_esg/

#105 IHCTD9 on 11.14.22 at 10:18 am

#95 Dr V on 11.14.22 at 1:39 am

Take my Sherpa if you like!
______

If by Sherpa, you are talking about one of these:

https://sherpatvsales.com/

…then I would also like to borrow it!

#106 Don Guillermo on 11.14.22 at 10:21 am

#101 IHCTD9 on 11.14.22 at 9:16 am
#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.22 at 11:30 pm

C’mon Ponzie, it’s totally possible a guy might simply just want to retire in a warm cheap country no? You don’t need to move all the way to Thailand to get some “cheap fun”. I’d bet plenty is available right there in Van.
##########
Ponzies cheap Vancouver fun is a litre of Pepsi and a coffee crisp. A Saturday night blow out. :-)

#107 Shawn on 11.14.22 at 10:40 am

Buy and Hold and Hold and Hold…

#97 Sail Away on 11.14.22 at 7:39 am
Re: Shawn and Dollarama

Yes, Dollarama is a great business. Also, for us, a case in point regarding Doug’s post about not selling winners. We held from 2013-2017 and then sold for good profit, planning to re-enter at a lower value; those lows came, but we never got around to buying.

In hindsight, our more evolved strategy of never selling and adding at lows would have been the better action.

To remedy, I intend to probably buy when markets open this morning. You know… depending…

******************************************
That strategy works for Warren Buffett who says choose your stocks extremely carefully. Select only the best of the best. Only buy companies you think would be okay to keep forever.

Occasionally things change and the there is a need to sell stock investments but in many cases, he just keeps forever. When Berkshire buys an entire business they almost never sell. (About 99% of the entire businesses they bought are still owned).

#108 Dharma Bum on 11.14.22 at 10:46 am

@Faron
@Sail Away

Gear vs No Gear

I don’t think anybody is arguing that gear is totally unnecessary.

It’s a matter of degree. Less is more.

You need the appropriate equipment for whatever the activity is that you’re pursuing. No argument.

When I ski, I use skis, ski boots, ski poles, goggles, a helmet, and appropriate clothing for the weather conditions.

However, it doesn’t mean that I need a $1500 jacket, $900 pants, a $500 helmet, $600 goggles, $2000 skis, $250 poles, and $800 boots.

I can safely and efficiently accomplish the activity for a fraction of the cost.

One needs to primarily know what they are doing when pursuing any sort of a technical and potentially dangerous sport or skill. The amount and level of gear should be calibrated to the task at hand – not to be cool, trendy, fashionable, or poser like. After a point, the “performance” extracted from the elite range of gear is negligible. Most participants and enthusiasts can never reach the level of expertise to gain an advantage of the most expensive and finest equipment. It’s mostly a fashion show. The worst skiers always seem to have the fanciest equipment.

I just wanna know how Sail Away knows that I use size 12s.

I do already have crampons, but thanks for the offer!

#109 TheDood on 11.14.22 at 10:50 am

#18 35Mugen on 11.13.22 at 1:02 pm
Hey Garth, any insight into why I just spotted a 3 pack of Andy Boy Romain Lettuce for $16.99 here in Markham when these used to cost $3.99 a pack? Is Romain the one produce that encapsulates everything that’s gone sideways from fertilizer, truck driver, and fuel costs?
__________________________________

We went for groceries yesterday and it was quite noticeable how much we’re paying for how little we get.

Funny thing about romaine lettuce, there was a produce worker placing ‘rusted’ (i.e. – old) lettuce on top and the new, clean ones on the bottom – because that is how he was trained – in the hopes that the ‘dumb’ public will pick up and pay for the rusted ones. Nobody is that dumb though. I wonder how much old rusty lettuce lands up in the bin?

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.14.22 at 11:09 am

#106 Don Guillermo on 11.14.22 at 10:21 am
#101 IHCTD9 on 11.14.22 at 9:16 am
#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.22 at 11:30 pm

C’mon Ponzie, it’s totally possible a guy might simply just want to retire in a warm cheap country no? You don’t need to move all the way to Thailand to get some “cheap fun”. I’d bet plenty is available right there in Van.
##########
Ponzies cheap Vancouver fun is a litre of Pepsi and a coffee crisp. A Saturday night blow out. :-)
—————————-
Haha
You’ve got that one right.
Right after a nice game of Pickle Ball at -1 degrees.
Faaantastic.
Any Pickle Ball courts in Mechiko?

#111 Sail Away on 11.14.22 at 11:21 am

Re: Dharma Bum and gear

Size 12- my Red Deer rellies told me

Yes, gear efficiency is important. Also tech advances. My total pack weight for winter hiking/camping/living in the mountains w/3 days of food is 23lbs. Add a 6.5 lb rifle to harvest game and there’s no actual need to return except to satisfy the hot rock massage spa needs.

Regarding gear: always take that recommended by the local experts, in this case, specifically for Mt Benson, the local S&R classifies trail crampons or microspikes as essential winter gear. Sure, it’s probably possible to crawl and slide the steep and icy pitches but that increases time and injury risk; hence, not recommended by local knowledge. It’s a bit baffling anyone would argue against this and choose it as a hill to die on (heh!) but whattayado?

#112 Cheap and fun on 11.14.22 at 11:26 am

Having spent half of every year for the last 20 years living in cheap and fun countries here’s what I learned:

The least expensive countries to live in are always the socialist leaning ones as their entire economic policy is to buy votes with printed currency which causes constant devaluation. (See: Argentina, Venezuela, Peru etc. Oh and increasingly Canada and the USA lol)

So even if you have pathetic loonies you can live very well on $3,000 to $5,000 a month. If you have US$, well, you are golden. A short stint in Argentina will convince any Canadian to buy US$ immediately upon return to Canada. It sure convinced me, thank my lucky stars.

“Living very well” means nice rental apartment in the best part of town (or on the beach), full time maid who prepares breakfast and if you like, lunch and dinner every day in the best restaurants.

Why would a right-winger or libertarian type want to live in a socialist country? Simple. Once you see how they really function it is almost a dream.

The massive bureaucracy? Ignored by everyone. If anyone obeyed the laws they’d all starve. The most laissez-faire country I have seen is Argentina. Literally anything goes, as long as you ignore all the regulations, which everyone does.

Caught breaking a law, like maybe you over-stayed your visa? $20 to $50 makes the problem go away. Cheaper than taking the ferry to Uruguay.

There is an entire underground economy in each of these countries that keeps them going. All cash or barter, usually US $ based.

You take your US$ cash and buy pesos on the blue market from ‘arbolitos’ (little trees), guys who stand on the street corner waving their arms in a section of Buenos Aires offering pesos at a rate double that of the official rate.

It’s actually the closest thing to living in a free market you will find (outside of HK perhaps.)

That’s why Venezuela hasn’t completely collapsed. the underground economy keeps it going, despite the challenges. Same for Argentina.

As a foreignor you are living completely under the radar (don’t be stupid and apply for residency.) No hassles whatsoever. You are a long term tourist. If you need to renew your visa, a short 3 day trip to Uruguay, Nicaragua or Panama does the trick.

Healthcare? Can you access it easily in Canada? I couldn’t. I am paying for it where I am now, dental care about 10% of the cost in Canada, other minor medical issues a few hundred dollars. Insurance is available for a few hundred dollars a month.

Taxes? Well, I could write a book on that aspect. Best to leave that aside. Suffice it to say you want to earn your money in NA and spend it in SA.

There’s an entire industry now in LA for medical tourism. The clinics are spotless, the doctors excellent, and no waiting.

Terminally ill? I can get cared for here as well as back in Canada. I’d rather have my fentanyl patch here on a nice beach than in a cold hospice.

Fun? Well of course women in these countries have a very difficult time finding decent work so many see a foreignor as a way to a better life, at least financially.

My first time in LA as a young, financially stable, blonde guy with blue eyes I felt like a rock star I was getting so much attention. Now I am older and it’s not quite the same, alas. Plus, younger gringos have discovered the secret and are everywhere now.

I am surprised to see so many very attractive, young, fit American and European men going for the ‘good time’ women though, when so many beautiful, educated, quite conservative women are everywhere.

I guess they are in LA for a good time, not a long time.

Me? I have the same female friends I met 20 years ago. They are still struggling and some are single moms now, a very common thing in LA. I take them to nice restaurants, buy gifts for their children, and wish they would let me help them more, but they are too proud to accept any money. Offers to buy them something nice leads to a trip to the mall where I get steered to the children’s toy store instead of the women’s clothing store.

The streets of some places are filled with refugees, most from Venezuela, some indigenous. If you want to have 100% of your charitable donations go to where it’s needed, no better way than to hand it out directly to the people who need it. Nice to see the faces of the people you help as well.

Be careful giving money to children though, you might see them run to the corner and hand it off to an older person, who might have ‘rented’ the child for the day for exactly this purpose.

Sigh, nothing is easy, but it’s sure a lot more economical, enjoyable and educational than leaving in the boring GWN.

(oh yeah, of course learn the language, that should go without saying)

#113 IHCTD9 on 11.14.22 at 11:26 am

Visited the local YAMAHA dealership last week. Floor had a few road and street bikes. Zero sleds/ATV’s/SXS’s. Guy at the counter said YAMAHA is projecting no regular inventory supply until 2024 now. Must be a tough go for these guys. They would normally sell truckloads of just ATV’s alone in our area every year.

I see Polaris’s new 55″ Sportsman XP 1000S has an MSRP of over 20K and 7.49 OAC. Yikes! This is just a quad… Might be the first one in history to list at over 20K? One of very few at least. In 2017 I had a quote for a brand new YAMAHA (base) Kodiak 700 for $6995.00 and 1.89% oac. Not a comparable machine, but just some perspective on what has happened.

At work, I’m seeing spot pricing on some steels varying over 100% on the same RFQ. 48-60″ wide 50W coil is crashing down in price. Aluminum is sinking quick too. Lead times seem to indicate some pretty threadbare warehouses (no surprise). It’s a good time to shop absolutely everything – all this stock/price turmoil has created multiple opportunities to make some bank – but it’s a limited time offer.

I can’t call 2023, but it seems like it’ll still be a grind for a good while yet.

#114 Bubbles on 11.14.22 at 11:27 am

While I love optimism your to opy for me.
Debts bad for growth…
I saw the downturn and acted. I didn’t get a heads up here other than rate increase predictions. But I new that was coming.
But best to stay invested even if your down.
Or average in if you can.
There’s other issues ahead…inflation may have slowed but its hanging around.
Prices rise
Peeps want more money
Companies increase prices.
Peeps need more money.
The loop has started.
Low inflation, free money and cheap energy is gone…never ending carbon taxes ext.
It’s different now.

#115 IHCTD9 on 11.14.22 at 11:35 am

#106 Don Guillermo on 11.14.22 at 10:21 am
#101 IHCTD9 on 11.14.22 at 9:16 am
#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.13.22 at 11:30 pm

C’mon Ponzie, it’s totally possible a guy might simply just want to retire in a warm cheap country no? You don’t need to move all the way to Thailand to get some “cheap fun”. I’d bet plenty is available right there in Van.
##########

Ponzies cheap Vancouver fun is a litre of Pepsi and a coffee crisp. A Saturday night blow out. :-)
__________

Partying that hard might get you a night in jail : D

#116 Shawn on 11.14.22 at 11:48 am

#112 Cheap and fun on 11.14.22 at 11:26 am

Having spent half of every year for the last 20 years living in cheap and fun countries here’s what I learned:

***********************
Thank you. That was very informative. Most Canadians have absolutely no idea about this stuff.

#117 Yukon Elvis on 11.14.22 at 12:08 pm

#112 Cheap and fun on 11.14.22 at 11:26 am

Very nice summary. Thank you for that. Pretty much the same as SE Asia where I like to hang out now and then.

#118 Shawn on 11.14.22 at 12:18 pm

Debt?

#114 Bubbles on 11.14.22 at 11:27 am

While I love optimism your to opy for me.
Debts bad for growth…

*****************************
Absolutely false unless we get an actual credit crisis.
Debt and credit is the true grease of the economy.

Try looking up a correlation between debt and GDP.

Who can build a house without borrowing for example? Or a pipeline. Or much of anything.

#119 jess on 11.14.22 at 12:25 pm

well connected?
November 14, 2022
By Jesse Brown & Cherise Seucharan

https://www.canadaland.com/the-church-the-conservatives-and-the-covid-contracts/

#120 Dr V on 11.14.22 at 12:27 pm

111 Sailo

“It’s a bit baffling anyone would argue against this and choose it as a hill to die on (heh!) but whattayado?”
—————————————————–

The exchange puzzled me. I could not connect the dots from your comments re SAR’s reco for the local hike to technical climbs in the Rockies complete with glaciers.

I have used the trail crampons I linked only a few times, and the conditions have to be right – just as you
described. They were great and made a cool evening walk/hike very enjoyable, especially the frozen puddles!

There is a hill nearby that offers some nice views on a
short loop. There are continual small ups and downs, roots and rock clearings. The varied terrain loosens up the hips and uses glutes, quads and hamstrings – a nice
change from the hours I spend on the bike. I see many people in runners, and some even in sandals. I opt for lightweight ankle-height name-brand hikers with
excellent bi-directional tread, and I take one of my
poles, regularly using it for stability on one pitch.

I always have my phone, and even take a headlight if it’s late afternoon in the winter – just in case. It could even help someone else. It takes less than an hour (including stops to chat or enjoy the view) but I will
take a water bottle if it’s hot. I’ll do the walk briskly,
sometimes breaking stride on a couple of rises.

I have now been told I am doing this wrong and am putting myself and others at risk.

Puzzling…..

#121 Nonplused on 11.14.22 at 12:29 pm

Natural gas rationing starts in Pakistan.

This will be interesting, because I am not so sure how it will work. Natural gas isn’t like electricity, where you can shut it off at the source and then just turn it back on again. When you lose natural gas at the source, all the pilot lights go off (less of a problem these days with electric ignition), and there is a chance of air entering the lines meaning the lines have to be purged.

Also while brownouts definitely help reduce load, it is not as much as one would think. All the appliances that were not running during a brownout tend to come on at 100% when power (or in this case gas) is restored. So if you imagine a large number of fridges that typically run about 20% of the time, with sufficient numbers the total load at any given point will be about 20% of the connected potential. But if you shut them all off for 8 hours, when power is restored they will all come on at once, so the load goes to 100% of connected capacity, and then they all run until the temperature has been restored in each fridge. Same thing happens with furnaces. Laundry to some extent too, as all the people will do the wash when the power is on. And charging cell phones. Those lithium battery power stations too, if you have one.

The same thing happens when they try and “ration” gasoline. To the extent that it causes people to drive less, it helps, but to the extent it doesn’t it just causes more trips to the gas station, and engines idling while waiting in line, which actually increases demand.

Price rationing is the only thing that causes sustained changes in behavior. All forms of rationing, including price controls, send false signals to the market. Thus, price controls and rationing both send a signal to the market that encourages demand beyond supply at the given price.

#122 Sail Away on 11.14.22 at 12:58 pm

#120 Dr V on 11.14.22 at 12:27 pm
111 Sailo

“It’s a bit baffling anyone would argue against this and choose it as a hill to die on (heh!) but whattayado?”

—————

The exchange puzzled me. I could not connect the dots from your comments re SAR’s reco for the local hike to technical climbs in the Rockies complete with glaciers.

I have used the trail crampons I linked only a few times, and the conditions have to be right – just as you
described. They were great and made a cool evening walk/hike very enjoyable, especially the frozen puddles!

There is a hill nearby that offers some nice views on a
short loop. There are continual small ups and downs, roots and rock clearings. The varied terrain loosens up the hips and uses glutes, quads and hamstrings – a nice
change from the hours I spend on the bike. I see many people in runners, and some even in sandals. I opt for lightweight ankle-height name-brand hikers with
excellent bi-directional tread, and I take one of my
poles, regularly using it for stability on one pitch.

I always have my phone, and even take a headlight if it’s late afternoon in the winter – just in case. It could even help someone else. It takes less than an hour (including stops to chat or enjoy the view) but I will
take a water bottle if it’s hot. I’ll do the walk briskly,
sometimes breaking stride on a couple of rises.

I have now been told I am doing this wrong and am putting myself and others at risk.

Puzzling…..

—————

Haha. I’ve summited our local mountain 324 times now, and just in the last few days learned it’s not actually a mountain and the way all we Nanaimo-ites have been going up and down since time immemorial is wrong.

One thing that’s comforting are the advice-sharing experts (even if they’ve never done it themselves!) willing to help us navigate this sticky wicket.

Even my S&R buddy commented gratefully: ‘Yep, every nimrod out there is an expert at my job.’

#123 millmech on 11.14.22 at 1:15 pm

Picking up AQN.TO this morning.

#124 Faron on 11.14.22 at 1:23 pm

#120 Dr V on 11.14.22 at 12:27 pm
#111 Sailo

This place is hilarious!

Sorry Dr. V, you kinda lost the thread there. Maybe you’re reading the comments backwards, but Sail Away’s SAR quote and crying to mommy came after I indicated my expertise in most things icy, so you have that backwards.

I’m curious, who told you you are doing this wrong? As usual, you seem to have ameasured, rational approach.

Let’s review:

I told Sail Away that not carrying foot chainz is an option ’cause I’ve never seen them as beneficial over my broad experience on a vast diversity of terrain.

He seemed offended by that and Ustabe’s (apt) mocking for the claim that Mt. Benson is much of a mountain. So he came back telling us how icy and dangerous it is.

I replied that if it’s that icy and dangerous then microspikes are the wrong tool for the job.

Sail Away is now trapped. It’s either an icy-death-trap-luge-run-where-people-die-OMG in which case microspikes are the wrong tool for the job. Or, it’s a local hill in which case, sure, wear spikes if you are a touch clumsy so you don’t fall and break a wrist.

Either way, if there is consequential slide risk (luge run) then microspikes are out of their league. For your tottering along on rolling terrain Dr V, they are probably perfect. That’s what they are designed for.

And you kinda forgot that lugers, on their 8 to 12% grade, wear helmets. As do skiers. And even bikers regardless of speed. Oh, also, look at the Nanaimo SAR page. Guess what? They are wearing helmets. On low angle terrain, in summer. If it’s as dangerous as Sail Away makes it out to sound (so he can fool you guys into thinking he’s tough) and the open slopes present any risk of a slide into or off of anything, you should be wearing a helmet.

#125 Penny Henny on 11.14.22 at 1:31 pm

#123 millmech on 11.14.22 at 1:15 pm
Picking up AQN.TO this morning.
///////////////

Do you not have any worries that they will reduce the divy?

#126 Shawn on 11.14.22 at 2:10 pm

#125 Penny Henny on 11.14.22 at 1:31 pm
#123 millmech on 11.14.22 at 1:15 pm
Picking up AQN.TO this morning.
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Do you not have any worries that they will reduce the divy?

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Okay, looked it up and that’s Algonquin Power.

To my mind, millmech is a bit off track when he refers to it as a trading symbol. First it’s poor communication since we have not all memorized the symbols.

More importantly, to me it implies a mindset that you are buying a stock symbol, a squiggle on a screen as opposed to a getting part ownership in a real business.

I don’t think you would ever see Warren Buffett refer to buying a stock symbol. He would spell out the name.

I try to avoid referring to companies as stock symbols and make some exceptions only when they are almost universally known by the symbol. CNR, CP or maybe RBC. And I would never say I am buying CNR.TO. Just that I am buying CNR.

Anyhow, that’s always been my firm mindset. I buy shares in companies, not stock symbols.

#127 millmech on 11.14.22 at 2:16 pm

#125 Penny Henny
Long term hold, no worries at all, picked up CWB.TO, LB.TO, BNS.TO in the last little bit as well, next is ENB & FTS.TO. to add to the pile.

#128 Faron on 11.14.22 at 2:16 pm

#111 Sail Away on 11.14.22 at 11:21 am
Re: Dharma Bum and gear

Size 12- my Red Deer rellies told me

Yes, gear efficiency is important. Also tech advances. My total pack weight for winter hiking/camping/living in the mountains w/3 days of food is 23lbs.

OMG LOL. If you submit your pack weight as a trail/climbing resume all it tells someone is that you like to blow your cash. I also highly doubt your claimed weight as people tend to exaggerate those things, especially people who claim Mt. Benson is a luge run death trap.

And:

Sail Away cries to mommy and gets:

“Yep, every nimrod out there is an expert at my job”

Please show me where I told anyone how to properly do SAR? That’s you making stuff up again. Also, I’m sure you expertly and unbiasedly represented me. Cool that you get off on spreading lies and rumors about me to your peeps.

#129 Dr V on 11.14.22 at 2:28 pm

125 Penny

“Do you not have any worries that they will reduce the divy?”
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Hi Penny. Yeah that’s a tough one.

What I recall about utilities is they are great cash flow, but subject to interest rates due to high infrastructure costs and inflation if their contracts lock in low prices.
I see from brief online summaries that AQN has both regulated and non-regulated sources, diversification in
the US and elsewhere, and some renewables. That sounds like a good mix of defensive with some growth potential.

Stock shows as a 5 year low now, but if the divvy gets cut, maybe not a great deal even at this price. If you dont need the divvy immediately, it could be worth grabbing a small position. I’ll talk to my adivisor as I
buy my individual holdings for the yields.

#130 jess on 11.14.22 at 2:41 pm

urban hospital closing in usa ….

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/12/us/hospital-closures-race-deconstructed-newsletter-reaj/index.html

…’Alan Sager, a professor of health policy and management at the Boston University School of Public Health who over the course of the past 12 years has documented hospital closures in nearly every major US city, characterized the country’s health-care system as “anarchic.”

Bonnie Castillo, the executive director of the union National Nurses United, expressed similar sentiments.

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There’s now added hope those who misspent Covid funds could be brought to justice. President Biden signed two bills last week giving federal prosecutors more time to fight pandemic fraud.

The two pieces of legislation, the PPP and Bank Fraud Enforcement Harmonization Act of 2022 and the COVID-19 EIDL Fraud Statute of Limitations of 2022, extend the statute of limitations to investigate fraud by borrowers under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and the Economic Injury Disaster Relief Loan (EIDL) from five to 10 years.

alleging the loans should be clawed back because it was mis-used and not forgiven
https://covidstimuluswatch.org/blog/2022-08/covid-fraudsters-beware-new-legislation-gives-prosecutors-more-time-find-you

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new
A Tool for Researching Corporate Regulatory Infringements in the United Kingdom

Violation Tracker UK is the first wide-ranging database of enforcement actions brought against companies by government regulators in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. It contains more than 77,000 cases involving issues such as financial misconduct, workplace abuses, environmental offences and anti-competitive practices. Modelled on the U.S. Violation Tracker, it combines cases resolved since 2010 from 49 regulatory agencies. Violation Tracker is produced by the Corporate Research Project of Good Jobs First.

#131 Shawn on 11.14.22 at 2:54 pm

Dollarama

It expensed $230 million for Income tax in its latest fiscal year. Current taxes were $211 million. Current tax I believe is essentially cash taxes but on an accrual basis. Taxes payable for the year as opposed to a cheque already written. $19 million was deferred due to timing differences.

My point is $211 million is a big number. ALL of this tax was paid in Canada. This is a wonderful Canadian company that makes big money for investors, employs people who want to work there for the wages offered, pays big taxes and lowers the cost of living for its customers. Heros!!

If the founder of Dollarama, Larry Rossy, has not yet been awarded the Order of Canada he ought to be. There are many things to reward and celebrate, but this kind of win, win, win, win business success ought to one of them.

#132 Sail Away on 11.14.22 at 2:57 pm

#125 Penny Henny on 11.14.22 at 1:31 pm
#123 millmech on 11.14.22 at 1:15 pm

Picking up AQN.TO this morning.

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Do you not have any worries that they will reduce the divy?

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Cautiously… I’m joining MM. Div might get cut but still attractive with O&G company at 2015 price, even with the renewables arm being a concern. I expect today’s dive is anticipating a div cut. We shall see. 10.64 buy.

#133 jess on 11.14.22 at 3:00 pm

FCA ramps up intervention on rogue financial promotions
Press Releases First published: 04/11/2022 Last updated: 04/11/2022

The FCA intervened to amend or withdraw 4,151 financial promotions between July and September, the highest since it started publishing the data.

Retail lending, investments and banking are the sectors with the highest rate of amends to or withdrawal of adverts and amount to 95% of the FCA’s interventions with authorised firms.

The FCA highlighted that it had seen several cases involving unauthorised firms and individuals seeking to take advantage of the rising cost of living. During the period, the FCA issued 303 warnings about unauthorised firms and individuals, with over 20% being about clone scams.

The data also detailed various action taken by the watchdog to curb misleading and unfair behaviour by firms as well as tackling scammers. For example, the FCA’s intervention resulted in 66 Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) promotions from one firm across various social media platforms being amended or withdrawn. It said the adverts did not give fair or prominent risk warnings and were misleading about fees. Although the FCA does not yet regulate BNPL, it warned BNPL firms about misleading promotions earlier this year.

#134 Sail Away on 11.14.22 at 3:19 pm

#128 Faron on 11.14.22 at 2:16 pm

Sail Away cries to mommy and gets:

“Yep, every nimrod out there is an expert at my job”

Please show me where I told anyone how to properly do SAR? That’s you making stuff up again. Also, I’m sure you expertly and unbiasedly represented me. Cool that you get off on spreading lies and rumors about me to your peeps.

—————

Lies? You, sir, do me a disservice.

I just forwarded your comment verbatim and said, ‘Here’s that same climate ‘expert’ who posted in August that climate change would wipe out all SE US mammals in a couple decades. Looks like he’s an expert on Benson as well, although he hasn’t mentioned actually hiking it, lol.’

Totally legit, yo.

#135 yvr_lurker on 11.14.22 at 3:49 pm

You think it is perfectly reasonable to tax the capital gains of a primary residence that one has lived in for years (improving the place, renos by sweat equity, makes no difference), yet for you this is perfectly reasonable:

“Second, capital gains taxes are a treat. Way better than working. For example, if you earn a hundred grand from employment and have an equal amount in realized capital gains, the tax on the work money is about 25% while the investment profit which rolled in is taxed at just over 12%.”

Many of us who work for a living, would much prefer lower income taxes and higher taxes on capital gains from investments. This would allow more people to climb the ladder, rather than reward those who somehow by their effort or from inheritances have already made it, and live off their investments with a substantially reduced tax burden. Not at all reasonable in my view.

#136 JR on 11.15.22 at 6:20 pm

@yvr_lurker

Low taxes on capital gains on stocks helps me to plan for retirement while living in an apartment, instead of having to jump into the ridiculously overpriced housing market.

Your bias is showing.