Hacksaw backscratch

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DOUG  By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat
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Can you take my portfolio to cash?

Naturally, we get this request from clients during bear markets. It’s a terrible idea for countless reasons, reasons that I’ve, to paraphrase legendary Pittsburgh Penguins broadcaster Mike Lange, beaten like a rented mule here many times. So I’ll spare you from doing it again.

However, what about the question that typically comes next: Can’t we just raise SOME cash by selling the stuff that’s gone up?

Ah yes, the disposition effect. The tendency of investors to sell assets that have gone up in value while keeping the assets that have declined in value.

The disposition effect can be demonstrated through a simple exercise. Suppose you buy two securities, one at $25 and one at $100. Overnight the $25 security doubles and the $100 security drops 50%. Assuming that you must sell one of the two, which security do you sell? The temptation for most investors is to sell the security that’s doubled, but this decision is arbitrary as the actual economic impact on the portfolio is identical. A more logical approach would be to simply flip a coin, but in practice, as the research of Professor Terrance Odean at the University of California Berkeley has shown, individual investors are almost 4x more likely to choose the ‘take profits’ option.

Individual investors have a built-in impulse to sell winners. Simply put, it ‘feels better’ to take a profit. This is why, regardless of market conditions, if clients need to raise cash, say to purchase a used car, they usually request that we sell holdings that “have gains”. But such requests aren’t rational, they’re emotional.

To make matters worse, the urge to sell winners actually increases when markets are in a downturn. Author and investor Scott Nations notes the following in his new book The Anxious Investor:

Another reason we can debunk the idea that investors are being their best selves when they’re selling winners is because the tendency increases when prices are falling, as demonstrated in a 2021 study of nearly a hundred thousand German individual investors from 2001 to 2015. Researchers found that these investors were “25 percent more likely to realize gains in bust than in boom periods.” [The disposition effect] increases as prices fall because investors who are watching the value of their portfolio dwindle are looking for a little good news and the only way to achieve that is to sell winners just when they become more important to the overall health of a portfolio.

It’s a cognitive fallacy, of course, to assume that winning positions will underperform in the future and losing positions will outperform. If one assumes an equal probability of a winning position either outperforming or underperforming down the road, there can be no justification for selling winning positions 4x more often than losing positions.

Another consideration is that the powerful effect of positive market-momentum, combined with the terrible security selection of individual investors, actually indicates that the selling of winning positions is a bad idea EVEN if it’s done in equal proportion to the selling of losing positions. Scott Nations further notes:

One study of ten thousand brokerage accounts from 1987 through 1993 found that these investors were more likely to sell winners than losers and that the winners they sold outperformed the losers they kept over the following year by 3.4 percentage points. Another study of Japanese individual investors during that country’s bull market from 1984 to 1989 was even starker; the stocks these investors sold outperformed the stocks they purchased by a total of 38.2 percentage points.

One more reason to let your winners ride. But regardless, it’s still the disproportionate frequency with which individual investors sell their winners that isn’t logical. It’s a decision driven only by our need to record successes at the expense of carefully considered forecasting.

But to become a truly successful investor means giving yourself constant wake-up calls. It means forcing awareness of your behavioural biases. To again paraphrase Mike Lange, it means scratching your back with a hacksaw.

So stop selling your winners just because it feels better to do so.

You’re welcome. I’ll lay down my hacksaw.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

104 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.22 at 9:43 am

Meanwhile over in the Ivory Towers of Ottawa…. the Tiff-ster speaks…..

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-winter-2022-1.6649322

“Bear with us, the pain will end soon”.

Reminds me of an impacted wisdom tooth extraction…

#2 chalkie on 11.12.22 at 9:53 am

This is a great exercise that you have shown Doug, where the one investment at $25 and one at $100. Overnight the $25security doubles and the $100 security drops 50%.

There are so few people in society that understand investments, that It is deplorable.
Your example of the $25 loss in total and the sell of the doubling trigger is usually the GIC crowd, they have no clue about investing.
For example, this past week alone has produced more gains for investors than the highest paying GIC pays out for the next year.

I blame a lot of our not understanding investments on the school system, to this day, there is next to nothing being taught to our kids about investing in the regular school system.

Most likely, after the student finishes school, if you do not have a dad or aunt that can teach you about investments, the kids are out of luck for the rest of their working days, GIC’s are like watching paint dry.
The banks take their money and invest it, making returns of 80 to 100% in the markets over the next couple of years, while they pay one a measly 5%, go figure, like loan sharks.

Look at the GIC investments dollars put up for 2022, there is no shortage of people running to the banks to buy them. The truth is, there is a sucker born every two seconds, that saying is, still alive and well.

Quote of the day: Before you can become a millionaire, you must learn to think like one, get yourself a well known investment advisor.

#3 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 9:53 am

Thanks Doug, useful info.

Let winners run.

We track all sold stocks with a column for gain/loss at time of sale, and another column for gain/loss since sale. This yields great info- some stocks sold 10+ years ago are now way up.

It’s resulted in buying good companies and almost never selling, and classifying holdings as either ‘winners’ or ‘winners in waiting’. Works well!

#4 The other Doug in London on 11.12.22 at 9:55 am

I get the idea of not selling winners in a down market, but what about in an up market? In a market like last year, doesn’t it make sense to take some profits on stocks or ETFs by that have gone up and buy what’s on sale?

#5 Overheardyou on 11.12.22 at 10:05 am

Learned this lesson the hard way, sold Apple because it was up kept Frontier Communications, the latter went to zero and Apple kept on going up…

#6 Søren Angst on 11.12.22 at 10:17 am

For the record there Hacksaw Doug & still Cdn Oil Oracle, your oil picks doing very well.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ENB:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATRP%2CTSE%3ASU%2CTSE%3APPL%2CTSE%3ACVE&window=YTD

Had the winners been sold, losers kept on Sept 26 per the Hacksaw Backscratch Theory:

Winner Cenovus sold on Sept 26 …

Sept 26 $20.04
Nov 11 $28.69
about a 43% gain lost

vs.

“Loser” Pembina kept …

Sept 26 $41.66
Nov 11 $46.50
about a 12% gain realized

Well, for yeah oil, the Hacksaw Backscratch Theory functional. Winner sold. Loser kept. Loser kept did not outperform and the Winner sold did not underperform, the contrary instead.

—————

I would have kept them & not sold.

Just sayin’.

They both clobbered the inflation rate in not even 2 months AND that’s not taking into account a Cenovus div yield of 1.46% and a Pembina div yield of 5.61%.

PS:

Cdn Banks on a roll. Good news for my embattled Cdn ETF relying on Financials doing well:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=YTD

Recovery started mid Oct.

Fingers crossed they cross the 0% line sooner than later … BNS if ever?

#7 Søren Angst on 11.12.22 at 10:29 am

#1 crowdelev…

In my view BoC and US Fed not doing enough. Taylor thinks so to. My take as to why …

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1591354047688478720

The more they dillydally, the more prolonged pain there will be by not stomping down inflation quickly.

—————–

FTX dude flying to Argentina.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1591348369271971841

For his sake, he better hope that Adolf & Josef didn’t have any money in FTX.

He’ll find out in about 5 hrs time. Jawohl, he will.

#8 Bezengy on 11.12.22 at 10:34 am

This 8 blog entries in a single week has really got my internal clock a little unwound. What day is it anyhow?

Love your insights on the philosophies of investing Ryan. Every January I try to dump all the red crap losers in my portfolio, and ask that question of what the hell was I thinking? One thing I’ve learned is if you sell all the ones in green you’ll have only red ones left.

#9 Andrewski on 11.12.22 at 10:42 am

This effect also aligns to:
The Sunk Cost Fallacy, which describes our tendency to follow through on an endeavour if we have already invested time, effort, or money into it, whether or not the current costs outweigh the benefits.
Best to have an investment professional take care of your investments as they detach themselves from the emotional aspect of investing decisions.

#10 Bezengy on 11.12.22 at 10:43 am

Sorry…..Doug, from Kelowna right?

#11 Hacksaw on 11.12.22 at 10:52 am

I maybe alone here, but whenever I see the word “Hacksaw” I think of WWF wrestler Hucksaw Jim Duggan walking into a ring with a two-by-four. What a character!

Would he smash you with it if you invest in Crypto or if you don’t? I wonder?

#12 Murphy’s Law on 11.12.22 at 10:56 am

Recently I saw a poster with all of Murphy’s laws on it.

This often forgotten one jumped out and made me laugh really loud, really long.

“No man’s life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature is in session.”

Ain’t that the truth, as we’ve recently clearly witnessed.

#13 Linda on 11.12.22 at 11:03 am

Doug, fun post of why so emotion based financial choices often lead to yet more emotions – usually regret:) On a more serious note though, at some point those who buy will sell. Or maybe ‘should’ sell. If the point of building a market portfolio is to provide an income stream, at some point one must realize gains as the point is not only to build wealth but be able to use it to provide the lifestyle. Yes, I know, dividends can provide income without selling up. Still, what is the end goal here? Being the richest guy in the graveyard?

#14 Nora Lenderby on 11.12.22 at 11:10 am

Hmm. So how does one re-balance? Or take cash out as needed?

Or is this more to do with having individual investments, rather than ETFs?

#15 Bubbles on 11.12.22 at 11:21 am

The bubble was obvious. Everyone was all in from the market to houses. Everyone was a bull but me…ZIRP forever then free money.
That was a great time to lighten up. Not now.
Bitcoin Tesla the list goes on. All crunched.
We are going to repeat the 70s…a lost decade.
Nominally the markets went up but when inflation adjusted the markets produced didly.
I’m confident, I’m right again about now.

#16 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 11.12.22 at 11:26 am

Yeah, I fight that all the time. Now I have a name for it.

#17 Shawn on 11.12.22 at 11:27 am

Selling Winners?

“Ah yes, the disposition effect. The tendency of investors to sell assets that have gone up in value while keeping the assets that have declined in value.”

*******************************
This is absolutely true.

Peter Lynch in his famous book, “One Up on Wall Street” (I think second edition) in the preface (as I recall) describes how Warren Buffett heard Lynch describe this as “cutting the flowers and watering the weeds”. Buffett borrowed that saying for his 1988 annual letter, giving credit to Peter Lynch.

I have been very often guilty of it myself. My biggest mistakes were in selling clearly great stocks (Costco, Constellation Software, others becasue they looked expensive) for modest profits when far greater profits were ahead. Buffett calls this “turning mountains into mole hills”.

It can certainly be best to let winners ride.

#18 Shawn on 11.12.22 at 11:31 am

Speaking of turning mountains into mole hills:

Another way to do that is to melt down an RRSP before retirement. But that was yesterday’s debate.

An RRSP melt down is indeed a way to pay lower taxes. But it will limit your own after-tax wealth ultimately. In Cape Breton they used to call this “cutting off your nose to spite your face”. Apparently,”spiting” your enemies was a big thing in Cape Breton back in the day.

#19 TurnerNation on 11.12.22 at 11:35 am

Re. yesterday’s weblog. Do the Retirees realize, after decades of Paying Their Share” not only does the global government not care about their health, it is actively trying to extinguish them. What a horrific system. The same, in each Former First World Country.
Year 4 of heath care rationing:

Build Back Better…standby for Public Priavte Partnerships.

.A 55-year-old man who spent nearly 24 hours waiting in an emergency room for a bed last month says Ontario’s health-care system is broken. (cp24.com)

.SickKids to reduce number of surgeries to focus on critical care amid influx of ICU patients (cbc.ca)

.Pediatric admissions on hold at Mississauga Hospital due to staffing challenges, patients being redirected to Credit Valley Hospital (cp24.com)


——Hint hint our rulers never cared.

“Hospital overcrowding crisis caused by more than just flu, says Ontario Health Coalition”, Jan 25, 2018
“Spike in patient numbers has Ontario hospitals bursting at seams”, Feb 11, 2017
“CHEO overcrowding sends ‘sickest children’ out of town”, Mar 02, 2018
“Patients line hallways as Brampton hospital experiences ‘surge'”, Dec 16, 2014

——— Yes, this is the drumbeat of the ‘news’ these days; to Manufacture Consent. Comrade if you no longer may work are you a burden the State?

.He survived a lifetime of trauma, found himself housebound by pain, poverty and incurable disease, and loosened MAiD rules presented him with a choice. (thestar.com)
“Last year, 10,064 Canadians ended their lives through medical assistance, the highest-ever total in the history of the program and a third of all cases since the program started in 2016.”

#20 Leftover on 11.12.22 at 11:38 am

There’s a little more to it, taxes mainly.

Unless you’re trying to re-balance a registered account, why would you ever sell a winner?

In a non-registered account one of the goals is to limit capital gains taxes, often from real assets, so selling losers is a nice way to achieve that. Sometimes there’s a need to liquidate financial assets to generate cash for other purposes, again the goal should be to generate the cash and to keep the portfolio balanced. That’s about the only time to sell a winner.

#21 Victor Llearna on 11.12.22 at 11:46 am

Another great lesson learned. Although sometimes putting stop losses on winners can save you. Look at Rogers (RCI.B) $70 stop loss saved almost $15/share when it dumped back to $55-60 range because of the shaw buyout being blocked then the country wide outage fiasco that happened in the summer.

#22 Brian on 11.12.22 at 11:48 am

Gotta admit I’ve fallen into this trap. Maybe why I’ve got beaten like a red-headed stepchild.

#23 DC on 11.12.22 at 12:05 pm

Curious about this if you have proper asset allocation and have bought quality (the drumbeat of this blog since I’ve started reading).
Traditional couch potato/balanced portfolio advice is to rebalance by buying into lower-performing aspects of your asset allocation. This is preferably done with additional money, but if that doesn’t exist then by selling the winners and buying the losers.
This column seems to fly in the face of that; any way to reconcile this? Is this only applicable if you’re selling to use, not reinvest?

#24 Elon Fanboy on 11.12.22 at 12:15 pm

This FTX story is wild…

Looking forward to the movie!

#25 Doug Rowat on 11.12.22 at 12:47 pm

#23 DC on 11.12.22 at 12:05 pm
Curious about this if you have proper asset allocation and have bought quality (the drumbeat of this blog since I’ve started reading).
Traditional couch potato/balanced portfolio advice is to rebalance by buying into lower-performing aspects of your asset allocation. This is preferably done with additional money, but if that doesn’t exist then by selling the winners and buying the losers.
This column seems to fly in the face of that…

—-

Methodical rebalancing is distinct from exiting positions entirely.

Further, though many want to hang on to their losers, it’s another thing entirely to have the guts to add to them.

—Doug

#26 Bubbles on 11.12.22 at 12:54 pm

Steady as she goes. FTX and the stocks in the news are pumped up…not so now.
Add to quality under the radar types I think.
The debt Binge has been unreal.
The deficit…lol masive. Christia says cut your Disney sub…God help us…these are our leaders.
The spending of these politicians (or better known as pig elites) when they attended the Queens funeral apperenty $6000 hotel room! And they wont even tell you who stayed there. Food you could only dream of. You tax payers get the bill..
One answer to our troubles is CUT GOVERMENT size DOWN.
Trudeau isn’t even a good actor and that’s all he does.
Nothing authentic about the guy….lord he’s so self important. Yup help.

#27 crossbordershopper on 11.12.22 at 12:57 pm

i thought most investors just go for the ride, they watch it go up and then down and end up where they started. they are long term investors, they dont know when to buy or sell, they are just told contribute monthly forever, while you are working and hopefully there is a pool of cash in the end when you need it to retire.
they always talk about time in the market, not timing, they talk about diversification, etc etc. all I know is most investors dont have any yardstick in terms of returns and risk.they just get there car and go on the road, and hopefully they get to there destination.
the problem is life gets in the way, divorce, sickness, job loss etc. and people never get that long term growth to benefit from.
still looking for that 90 year old lady investing for 50 years in the market and contributing and never had any issues in her life ending with millions.
IMO

#28 kommykim on 11.12.22 at 12:58 pm

“Letting winners run” sounds like the opposite of rebalancing.

#29 Doug Rowat on 11.12.22 at 1:09 pm

#2 chalkie on 11.12.22 at 9:53 am

…this past week alone has produced more gains for investors than the highest paying GIC pays out for the next year.

—-

Worse still if you’ve sold assets at the heart of the bear market in order to buy the GICs.

—Doug

#30 jess on 11.12.22 at 1:21 pm

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/11/ftx-second-largest-crypto-exchange-halts-withdrawals-as-bankruptcy-nears-and-justice-department-circles/

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.22 at 1:34 pm

@#24 Fanboy and Soren.

The FTX craptocurrency meltdown is amusing to watch.

Apparently FTX dumped hundreds of millions into charities and political campaigns.

Their evaporation has a lot of people scrambling for “promised” funds.

#32 Dr V on 11.12.22 at 1:35 pm

Doug – reading many of the comments above, this is certainly one of the most poorly worded posts ever.
Strongly suggest a follow-up, explaining some efficient ways to take profits.

#33 Frank on 11.12.22 at 1:41 pm

My simple conclusion after years of reading this blog and investing and having achieved the ability to retire at 45 ( should I choose to) , is “ do nothing ( except perhaps rebalance ) ever, until the day you need to withdraw.”

#34 TurnerNation on 11.12.22 at 1:56 pm

Our glorious elite Rulers. So nice of them to think of us.
Thank you Sir may we have another??
Flip this statement 180 deg and give me a hownyoudoin?:

.The Bank of Canada is warning Canadians to brace for a rough winter. Central banks making things worse now in hopes of making them better down the road (cbc.ca)

———————

Re. The Permanent Rolling Economic and Social Lockdowns. China sure seems like the test bed for this.

.2013: Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s remarks about his admiration for China’s ‘basic dictatorship’ has offended some Asian-Canadians. (cbc.ca)

——
Gee these headlines sound familiar. Like 2020, 2021. Can anyone guess what comes next? No go ahead, take a stab at it…
Last time it was under the guide of ‘protection the elderly’. This time the marketing has changed to the young.
As I’ve posted for years on here, the young never again shall know normalcy.
Lockstep as usual —>

.U.S. COVID public health emergency to stay in place (reuters.com)

.These Ontario parents want province to make masks mandatory in classrooms again (cbc.ca)

.Australians urged to wear masks amid COVID resurgence (abc.net.au)

.LA County health officials will ‘strongly recommend’ masks indoors if COVID cases continue rising (abc7.com)

#35 Linda on 11.12.22 at 2:04 pm

#19 – anyone who has ever worked in the health care system can tell you that demand has always outstripped supply. Those political promises to ‘fix’ the system are essentially hot air. When it comes right down to it, there is simply not enough infrastructure available to take care of everyone at the same time. Nor are there herds of out of work medical professionals loitering on street corners waiting for an offer of employment. Those promises that ‘they’ will ‘hire X number of new doctors/nurses/health care workers’ ignores the reality that the number of available, trained workers simply doesn’t exist to be hired.

#36 mike from mtl on 11.12.22 at 2:07 pm

#23 DC on 11.12.22 at 12:05 pm

Traditional couch potato/balanced portfolio advice is to rebalance by buying into lower-performing aspects of your asset allocation. This is preferably done with additional money, but if that doesn’t exist then by selling the winners and buying the losers.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

That’s exactly what I’ve been doing for years, why overcomplicate things trying to guess?

Broad bond ETFs are currently below inception prices and so many developed world currencies are at multi decade lows. So if that’s not a screaming buy, I don’t know what else is?

#37 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 2:28 pm

#28 kommykim on 11.12.22 at 12:58 pm

“Letting winners run” sounds like the opposite of rebalancing.

—————

By no means. There are many ways to rebalance. My fav is selling nothing and using incoming cash to rebalance he allocation rather than messing with existing holdings.

#38 SW on 11.12.22 at 2:41 pm

Tell all those ARKK investors to ‘let it ride’ instead of taking profits. The reality is none of us know where price is going. How many investors let ego get in the way and believe they still have a ‘winner’ while momo turns over and that winner gives it all back?

I let winners ride until momentum rolls over on the weekly chart for my investment account ( largely using a moving average specific to that chart – keep it simple). I would argue that modern day markets (post 2008) are all about momentum. Seasonals, fundamentals and common sense are largely out the window. Machines are running the show and a chart is a must have.

#39 Wrk.dover on 11.12.22 at 2:58 pm

#36 mike from mtl on 11.12.22 at 2:07 pm
Broad bond ETFs are currently below inception prices and so many developed world currencies are at multi decade lows. So if that’s not a screaming buy, I don’t know what else is?
___________________________

And 1st World hegemony will allow these poor countries to reverse course and thrive, just how?

I worry about whom will make the payments, how and with what, thus am not invested in them.

Of the many down ward sells I have made through this UNUSUAL year, only one is now back above my sell point!

Some I have sold, re-purchased and sold again.

90% of my buys are up, or are less than 5% down, because the banks have just reached -5% too.

I owe everything to Garth’s generosity with this blog, previously we were a GIC couple.

#40 Søren Angst on 11.12.22 at 3:34 pm

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz

The FTX plot thickens. Good one C.

I just fall upon these FTX tidbits as a result of the 100’s I follow on Twitter – my Mötley Crüe of the anarchic, blurred, chaotic, disarranged or ECLECTIC as I see them (some downright deranged but Vive la Différence).

Not much interest here other than the pathos of it all.

Still, drop a few more tidbits when you can. It makes for interesting reading, I’ll admit that for sure.

#41 @J on 11.12.22 at 3:59 pm

Thanks for the post backed by actual studies.

Rather than research on individual stock picks, are there studies on different types of methodical rebalancing of portfolios? For example, I’m curious what the result is for rebalancing every 6 months, vs 1 year vs 2 year, etc. should you let your winners run a little longer or does it not give you a better result?

#42 PBrasseur on 11.12.22 at 4:37 pm

Isn’t the whole point of investing to make sure you can spend cash at some point?

Most boomers have already retired or are very close to doing so (no wonder nothing seems to work properly anymore…), normal then to sell when you will need money to spend.

#43 Søren Angst on 11.12.22 at 4:38 pm

#30 jess

Well Jess, Gov in its wisdom halts withdrawals on a completely empty wallet. *

“FTX just got hacked for almost $400M. All funds are drained. All balances are zero.”

https://twitter.com/Route2FI/status/1591301581902958592

If true, makes sense FTX Dude in Buenos Aires now. Hope Adolf gets him if he is responsible.

——————

* They probably knew but had to get ahead of the story and show they were doing something, about nothing, as in ZILCH.

I’m actually starting to get interested in the story beyond pathos. My Mötley Crüe of 100’s on Twitter right on top of this story.

Get on the ball or the bus I say. Ball it is.

#44 Leaf blowers build community - crank 'em up! on 11.12.22 at 4:38 pm

Forget the hacksaw, Doug – get out your leaf blower!

It’s the weekend – show all the neighbours how much you care.

Spread your noise and fumes everywhere!

#45 Terry on 11.12.22 at 5:04 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine conspiracy doodle)

#46 Søren Angst on 11.12.22 at 5:12 pm

Last one Doug, I give up.

Yellen, not one to miss an opportunity, says …

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-12/yellen-says-ftx-debacle-shows-need-for-crypto-regulation

FTX dude Whac-A-Mole.

In Bahamas?

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1591492308444352512

With $300 million of RE (that should perk up every Cdn reading this Comment – with the 2 MAGIC SIREN LETTERS).

https://twitter.com/GRDecter/status/1591275439208960001

Mystery passenger to Buenos Aires? Is it Bankman instead?

https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1591324753465573376

Over. And. Out.

#47 Nonplused on 11.12.22 at 5:30 pm

Good point today, but there is no argument for selling holdings that are down either, unless something has changed fundamentally. Instead, one should ignore the individual profit/loss column and only look at allocations. Consider it a reallocation exercise. This may involve selling more of the stuff that is up, but not to the exclusion of maintaining balance.

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.22 at 5:45 pm

@#40 Soren.
“The FTX plot thickens. Good one C.”

+++
I read the FTX story on an online magazine called “Puck”.
I have a subscription.
They have excellent investigative reporters that freelance for the New York Times. The Economist, The Washington Post, etc etc etc.

The whole FTX debacle is leaving a lot of honest people scrambling to pay the bills.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwinwPzz26n7AhXcHDQIHe_OA7wQFnoECAsQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fpuck.news%2F&usg=AOvVaw0RVIVPOxXV6XjBkfVXgNwL

#49 Faron on 11.12.22 at 5:46 pm

Banksy visits Ukraine. Nice middle finger to Putin.

#50 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 5:53 pm

Beautiful and busy on the mountain today. Sunny, snowy, windless, warm… and icy. Shoe traction attachments highly recommended.

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.22 at 5:54 pm

Millions of FTX Craptocurrency donated to both US political parties….

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiDv9mY3an7AhXVMjQIHTG_C40QFnoECCgQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcryptoslate.com%2Fsbf-reveals-he-donated-to-republicans-democrats-as-lobbying-by-crypto-firms-continues-ahead-of-the-midterms%2F&usg=AOvVaw0OIO4VDOJw5gIxYPjh8nhd

I hope they cashed it in before the Midterm election otherwise…..huge unpaid bills.

Burning both US political parties….probably isnt a smart idea when one hopes to remain out of jail….

#52 Faron on 11.12.22 at 5:56 pm

Starting to look like no partisan swing in the Senate (Dems may well pick up a seat) and minimal in the house.

I was told multiple times by at least one blogdog that there was some kind of political swing/shift happening in the US? Is that why we just witnessed one of the smallest shifts away from the president in modern history? And perhaps the smallest for a pres with approval ratings as low as Biden’s?

Shrug, I guess that’s what happens when the GOP offers steaming hot garbage as an alternative to Democrat policy. Firm rejection of Trumpism (earlier blogdog’s and many other’s all time most admired president).

#53 Doug Rowat on 11.12.22 at 5:57 pm

#32 Dr V on 11.12.22 at 1:35 pm
Doug – reading many of the comments above, this is certainly one of the most poorly worded posts ever.
Strongly suggest a follow-up, explaining some efficient ways to take profits.

—-

An insult followed by a request? Do you ever wonder about your lack of persuasiveness?

—Doug

#54 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.12.22 at 6:04 pm

#35 Linda on 11.12.22 at 2:04 pm
#19 – anyone who has ever worked in the health care system can tell you that demand has always outstripped supply. Those political promises to ‘fix’ the system are essentially hot air. When it comes right down to it, there is simply not enough infrastructure available to take care of everyone at the same time. Nor are there herds of out of work medical professionals loitering on street corners waiting for an offer of employment. Those promises that ‘they’ will ‘hire X number of new doctors/nurses/health care workers’ ignores the reality that the number of available, trained workers simply doesn’t exist to be hired.
—————-
Excellent points.
If you’d build infrastructure for peak demand, taxes would have to go much higher.
The best hope is not to have your heart attack when everyone has one.
Or don’t get sick.
Which means, look after yourself and play pickle ball.
Also, immigration policy should be structured so as not to overwhelm the system.

#55 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.12.22 at 6:07 pm

As they say in soccer:
“Never change a winning team”.

#56 Damifino on 11.12.22 at 6:29 pm

But to become a truly successful investor means giving yourself constant wake-up calls. It means forcing awareness of your behavioural biases.
——————————————

Or… you can simply hire a competent financial manager to bypass your behavioral biases altogether. Provided, of course, you let them do what they get paid to do.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.22 at 6:46 pm

Hmmm.
Lets watch what happens to convicted investment scammer of Billions Therano’s Elizabeth Holmes next week.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjK_4nY6an7AhXVIDQIHYk9C4gQvOMEKAB6BAg0EAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Ftechnology%2F2022%2Fnov%2F12%2Felizabeth-holmes-theranos-sentence&usg=AOvVaw0FVAlE2GRxWnbtac7KCOHB

Even her “many months along” pregnancy won’t save her from ….15 years in prison and an $800 million dollar fine……….?

FTX founders…take note.

#58 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.22 at 6:52 pm

One wonders if the Judge would be “nice” to Crowdie” if he bilked $7 Billion dollars from investors?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjK_4nY6an7AhXVIDQIHYk9C4gQvOMEKAB6BAguEAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Felizabeth-holmes-theranos-sentencing-1849772278&usg=AOvVaw0l85eA6gAmAcdkuLlHGnwR

#59 Used to live in a ... on 11.12.22 at 6:52 pm

#27 crossbordershopper on 11.12.22 at 12:57 pm

still looking for that 90 year old lady investing for 50 years in the market and contributing and never had any issues in her life ending with millions.
———————————————————-
high end townhouse development that was full of them, although they were well under 90. All widowers … sad.

#60 Ustabe on 11.12.22 at 6:58 pm

#50 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 5:53 pm

Beautiful and busy on the mountain today. Sunny, snowy, windless, warm… and icy. Shoe traction attachments highly recommended.

I have a not quite friend, better than an acquaintance who runs a string of adult websites. Perhaps you know him, he lives just a bit north of you. Anyway, one of his tools he uses to remain current and competitive is an AI program that is fairly highly horse powered.

We ran most of your contributions here for the past year or so through this program, you know what it came up with?

Out of any random grouping of 1,000 people you are smarter than 183 of them.

A 1,000m hill barely qualifies as a mountain, it only has something like 670m of prominence. The trails up and down require no rock climbing, no decomposed granite to contend with. You spend a great deal of your time dodging new moms pushing baby strollers.

Don’t get me wrong, Benson is a wonderful asset to Nanaimo and area but it is, on any of the 5 or so trails up to where the old fire tower was, a hike. No where near mountain climbing.

So bamboozle folks from that pool of 183 into thinking you summit a mountain but the rest of us do not care and actually wonder why you insist on posting your self-aggrandizing tripe.

A good story entertains even if it is an interruption, yours always just promote you. The telling signature of a full blown narcissist.

#61 Faron on 11.12.22 at 7:07 pm

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.12.22 at 5:45 pm
@#40 Soren.

The whole FTX debacle is leaving a lot of honest people scrambling to pay the bills.

I have sympathy for the people who will lose jobs because of this — I reckon that FTX has some hundreds of employees? I have zero sympathy for the crypto dorks who have been warned time and time again but chose to stay inside their information bubble believing number go up.

Same stance I have on Tesla. There have been abundant warning signs. If you choose to ignore actionable information, it’s on you if you lose money. At least Tesla has assets and relatively low debt so the worst case is a buy-out with positive, non-zero shareholder value.

#62 Faron on 11.12.22 at 7:16 pm

#37 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 2:28 pm

“…he allocation…”

Is that, like, your share of the household beer that you keep in a man-cave?

———–

#60 Ustabe on 11.12.22 at 6:58 pm

Let me know if you want to play with his entire commenting history. I can post it somewhere fer ya or send you some code to scrape and parse it. The early, Trump loving and dog eating years are something to behold.

#63 Dr V on 11.12.22 at 7:26 pm

53 Doug

“An insult followed by a request?”
——————————————–

Dr V speaks in a direct manner, there was no insult. I critiqued your work. Perhaps the following is more acceptable to you.

“Doug, please re-examine the content and composition
of this post. Assumptions were not clearly stated, and this has confused many of the commenters. A follow-up
post highlighting timing and efficient methods for profit-
taking would be greatly appreciated.”

#64 Don Guillermo on 11.12.22 at 7:28 pm

#60 Ustabe on 11.12.22 at 6:58 pm
#50 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 5:53 pm

So bamboozle folks from that pool of 183 into thinking you summit a mountain but the rest of us do not care and actually wonder why you insist on posting your self-aggrandizing tripe.

***********
I’ve been following this blog and the comments from the beginning. I’m not sure how many regular readers and commenters there are but besides the hand full that seem to take exception to everything SA posts I believe most enjoy his comments, even if not always agreeing. At least he’s not constantly insulting.

#65 Dr V on 11.12.22 at 7:32 pm

50 Sailo

“Beautiful and busy on the mountain today. Sunny, snowy, windless, warm… and icy. Shoe traction attachments highly recommended.”
—————————————————–

I like these ones

https://www.altitude-sports.com/products/hillsound-unisex-trail-crampon-llll-hls-tc?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzJSXxfOp-wIVl2xvBB2LJA8TEAQYBCABEgIAk_D_BwE

#66 Jens on 11.12.22 at 7:36 pm

Thanks Doug for stirring our thoughts with this no doubt controversial post.

Re-iterating what a few other commenters have pointed out: if you take this advice to the logical extreme, you would ride the winners, and only the winners (including Bre-X, Nortel, and now perhaps TSLA), until they become losers. Obviously, that’s what a B&D portfolio is designed to protect you from, and careful rebalancing will be necessary in regular intervals, so you don’t end up with the majority of your assets in too few positions.

But wouldn’t the best advice be to spend the time and study the company’s fundamentals? If you hold a winner and their business is still sustainable, good for you. But if their P-E ratio is starting to go through the roof, maybe it’s time to take a good chunk of the profits and reinvest the proceeds in value stocks?

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.12.22 at 8:08 pm

#64 Don Guillermo on 11.12.22 at 7:28 pm
#60 Ustabe on 11.12.22 at 6:58 pm
#50 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 5:53 pm

So bamboozle folks from that pool of 183 into thinking you summit a mountain but the rest of us do not care and actually wonder why you insist on posting your self-aggrandizing tripe.

***********
I’ve been following this blog and the comments from the beginning. I’m not sure how many regular readers and commenters there are but besides the hand full that seem to take exception to everything SA posts I believe most enjoy his comments, even if not always agreeing. At least he’s not constantly insulting.
—————-
What do you mean he’s not constantly insulting.
He’s insulting my intelligence.
He’s so full of himself.
There’s no room for anything else.

#68 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 8:16 pm

#65 Dr V on 11.12.22 at 7:32 pm
50 Sailo

“Beautiful and busy on the mountain today. Sunny, snowy, windless, warm… and icy. Shoe traction attachments highly recommended.”

—————

I like these ones

—————

Yes! I use Black Diamond, which are pretty much identical. They’ve come a long way in the last few years.

#69 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 8:22 pm

#64 Don Guillermo on 11.12.22 at 7:28 pm

I’ve been following this blog and the comments from the beginning. I’m not sure how many regular readers and commenters there are but besides the hand full that seem to take exception to everything SA posts I believe most enjoy his comments, even if not always agreeing. At least he’s not constantly insulting.

—————

Thanks! And likewise.

#70 Faron on 11.12.22 at 8:30 pm

#64 Don Guillermo on 11.12.22 at 7:28 pm
#60 Ustabe on 11.12.22 at 6:58 pm

Pretty meaningless as a character reference. The median views of this blog’s commenters is in the furthest right pentile. You’re gonna love anyone spouting anti-woke, pro life, anti regulation, climate ignorant, Christian-informed, and occasionally even violent rhetoric.

There are at least 10 of us who can smell his sht from miles away. That’s saying something for me at least, given my long-COVID loss of smell!

#71 Søren Angst on 11.12.22 at 8:37 pm

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz

Thanks C. They will be a part of my morning read. Bookmarked in my Chrome “News” folder. I’ll give them a try.

———————
Sorry Doug, but I missed a lot of JUICY Comments while watching SVU on Prime. And I’m back.
———————

#60 Ustabe communiqué to #50 Sail Away

“Out of any random grouping of 1,000 people you are smarter than 183 of them.”

Pi$$ing myself laughing. THAT was good (sorry SA, but it was). For the record, IQ scale %’s:

80–89 = Low average, 16.1%
70–79 = Borderline, 6.7%
69 and below = Extremely low, 2.2%

Cumulative = 2.2 + 6.7 + 16.1 = 25% (thus, 18.3% the PC version: profound mental disability, of course, there are words, UnPC, starting with the letter “I”).

————

#61 Faron, #62 Faron

Writing carefully so as not to be accused of an “Amygdala Hijack”. Good on you F. Of course, I have just damned myself for that.

#65 Dr V

Fashion tips for Sail Away. Thoughtful.

——————————————

And some want Garth to get rid of the Comments section.

Rather, entertaining & informative. A real treat to read. It has some genuine Comedians and some Venom thrown in as well.

And I like it when Garth et. al. dish certain Commenters. And at times, they get dished right back. EGALITARIAN Blog Authors if you were to ask me unless subversive but they get deleted and rightly so.

Long Live The Greater Fool Blog!

and it’s bat$h!t crazy Commenters (myself to, but only on the rare occasion – ya, Let the Bullets Fly people).

#72 Søren Angst on 11.12.22 at 8:44 pm

#60 Ustabe

… and ya, I know you were going for the “M” word.

#73 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 8:48 pm

#60 Ustabe on 11.12.22 at 6:58 pm
#50 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 5:53 pm

Beautiful and busy on the mountain today. Sunny, snowy, windless, warm… and icy. Shoe traction attachments highly recommended.

—————

I have a not quite friend, better than an acquaintance who runs a string of adult websites. Perhaps you know him, he lives just a bit north of you. Anyway, one of his tools he uses to remain current and competitive is an AI program that is fairly highly horse powered.

We ran most of your contributions here for the past year or so through this program, you know what it came up with?

Out of any random grouping of 1,000 people you are smarter than 183 of them.

A 1,000m hill barely qualifies as a mountain, it only has something like 670m of prominence. The trails up and down require no rock climbing, no decomposed granite to contend with. You spend a great deal of your time dodging new moms pushing baby strollers.

Don’t get me wrong, Benson is a wonderful asset to Nanaimo and area but it is, on any of the 5 or so trails up to where the old fire tower was, a hike. No where near mountain climbing.

So bamboozle folks from that pool of 183 into thinking you summit a mountain but the rest of us do not care and actually wonder why you insist on posting your self-aggrandizing tripe.

A good story entertains even if it is an interruption, yours always just promote you. The telling signature of a full blown narcissist.

—————

No, I don’t think I know your porn guy but my moonshine supplier is just north of us, so maybe the same guy?

Thanks for your thoughts. Always nice to hear from a friend!

#74 kommykim on 11.12.22 at 8:57 pm

RE: #37 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 2:28 pm
#28 kommykim on 11.12.22 at 12:58 pm

“Letting winners run” sounds like the opposite of rebalancing.
—————
By no means. There are many ways to rebalance. My fav is selling nothing and using incoming cash to rebalance he allocation rather than messing with existing holdings.

=======================================

I disagree. Selling nothing and buying losers, to keep holdings in balance, is no different from selling winners (To keep holdings in balance) when drawing down the portfolio.
Rowat’s method of only selling losers would be equivalent to only buying more winners when adding cash to a portfolio. The end effect in both cases is an unbalanced portfolio.

#75 Doug Rowat on 11.12.22 at 9:32 pm

#74 kommykim on 11.12.22 at 8:57 pm
RE: #37 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 2:28 pm
#28 kommykim on 11.12.22 at 12:58 pm

=======================================

Rowat’s method of only selling losers….

—-

Wrong. I said don’t disproportionately sell your winners based solely on the satisfaction of recording a profit. In other words, not based on a well-researched forecast.

—Doug

#76 Don Guillermo on 11.12.22 at 9:36 pm

#70 Faron on 11.12.22 at 8:30 pm
#64 Don Guillermo on 11.12.22 at 7:28 pm
#60 Ustabe on 11.12.22

There are at least 10 of us who can smell his sht from miles away. That’s saying something for me at least, given my long-COVID loss of smell!
#######
Thanks for reinforcing my point.

#77 Faron on 11.12.22 at 9:47 pm

#68 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 8:16 pm
#65 Dr V on 11.12.22 at 7:32 pm
50 Sailo

“Beautiful and busy on the mountain today. Sunny, snowy, windless, warm… and icy. Shoe traction attachments highly recommended.”

—————

I like these ones

When I ran The Bear 100mi in 2016 it was very snowy. I passed a lot of people who were futzing with microspikes. Pretty sure they dropped. Only thing I dropped was a couple of toenails and a few f-bombs towards the end. There’s a bit o gear for everything these days. Do more with less.

#78 Doug t on 11.12.22 at 10:08 pm

#57 fartz

She’s a cracker for sure – Elon’s sister?

#79 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 10:25 pm

#77 Faron on 11.12.22 at 9:47 pm
#68 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 8:16 pm

“Beautiful and busy on the mountain today. Sunny, snowy, windless, warm… and icy. Shoe traction attachments highly recommended.”

—————

When I ran The Bear 100mi in 2016 it was very snowy. I passed a lot of people who were futzing with microspikes. Pretty sure they dropped. Only thing I dropped was a couple of toenails and a few f-bombs towards the end. There’s a bit o gear for everything these days. Do more with less.

—————

That’s cool. I also wore pants, but probably could’ve survived without them.

#80 Faron on 11.12.22 at 11:07 pm

#76 Don Guillermo on 11.12.22 at 9:36 pm
#70 Faron on 11.12.22 at 8:30 pm
#64 Don Guillermo on 11.12.22 at 7:28 pm
#60 Ustabe on 11.12.22

Thanks for reinforcing my point

That you are commenting within a deeply out of touch, right wing echo chamber? Any time.

#81 Ride Sally Ride on 11.12.22 at 11:24 pm

Dude, are you talking about selling off ETFs or selling individual stocks? It really is a different universe one way or the other. So, confused here , as you guys are always bashing stocks.

If you’re selling off an ETF you made a bad call on a macro pick. If you’re selling an individual stock you’ve made a bad call on a companies fundamentals.

If you have bought a good company that pays a dividend you shouldn’t ever sell it. An ETF contains a majority of dogs that don’t pay dividends and you should never buy it again. Rookie mistake. Ergo: buy good stocks, less risk.

#82 Ronaldo on 11.12.22 at 11:36 pm

Looking at page of newspaper from Feb. 27/90.
Montreal Trust advertising GIC/RSP rates. 11.75% 13 month and 11.5% for 42 months. On the same page Columbia Dodge were advertising a brand new Dodge Dakota Extended Cab Pickup, 6 passenger for $14,995.
TSX 3649, VSE 26 Dow 2602…..Gold 411.

#83 Ronaldo on 11.12.22 at 11:39 pm

VSE should have read 726.

#84 Dr V on 11.13.22 at 12:01 am

71 Soren re fashion tips
79 Sailo re pants

Good ones guys. Gotta laugh!

#85 Balmuto on 11.13.22 at 12:31 am

I’ve had some individual stocks go on a tear to the point where they are 30+% of my portfolio. At that point, it’s just too much concentration so I take some off the table not just to lock in profits but to reduce the volatility of my portfolio.

On the other hand, I will sell a dog outright once I recognize it as such. And I don’t “average down”. That’s throwing good money after bad. That’s probably an even worse habit than just hanging on to losers. Learned that the hard way.

#86 Faron on 11.13.22 at 12:51 am

#79 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 10:25 pm
#77 Faron on 11.12.22 at 9:47 pm
#68 Sail Away on 11.12.22 at 8:16 pm

That’s cool. I also wore pants, but probably could’ve survived without them

Pretty sure that degree of exposed pasty white flesh is a crime in BC excepting Wreck Beach. You made the right choice. Hopefully pleated.

#87 Gen Z on 11.13.22 at 12:57 am

People are having less and less faith in the ‘experts’ and policymakers.

That is why I am reading articles containing bricks of text from these amateurs on this blog.

It’s difficult to believe in a 8% inflation rate when you see grocery and gas prices jump so much so fast, when your natural gas bill comes in 50% higher, and your mortgage rate jumps, etc.

Then you hear about corporations making record profits, with studies showing it’s responsible for 50% of inflation.

Basically you get gouged by corporations, so the bank has to gouge you as well until you can’t afford to let corporations rip you off you any longer.

This is a battle between the banks and big business, with common people caught in the middle.

Like a former boss once advised me, look after yourself because no one else will.

#88 Wrk.dover on 11.13.22 at 2:44 am

Had the GOP not stacked the Supreme Court with dicks, Roe would have remained intact and Trumps hand picked idiotic candidates would now control two branches of the government as a result of the election!

Oops.

Can his corrupted court turn the blue wave on a dime?

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.13.22 at 3:40 am

@#67 Ponzie’s Preconceptions
“He’s insulting my intelligence.”
+++

Beat you at checkers again did he?

#90 Bill zufelt on 11.13.22 at 7:55 am

Lang was just the coach. The GM was always looking to sell his winners(that were getting long in the tooth) for picks,prospects and cap space.

#91 Sail Away on 11.13.22 at 8:13 am

As a public service message after the strange disparagement of Mt. Benson’s eminence here, I would strongly advise against underestimating Mt. Benson or any mountain if one decides to tackle it. Similar to Vancouver’s Grouse Grind in length, gradient, elevation and elevation change, expect changeable weather, significant temperature difference and steep rocky pitches, icy in winter. Allow 4-5 hours round trip. Don’t do it solo in winter as a first time ascent and do bring traction attachments. Because it’s popular, the trail is often hard-packed very slippery snow over treeless rock scrambling at the top.

Mountains don’t play, homie.

#92 Old Boot on 11.13.22 at 9:31 am

#91 Sail Away on 11.13.22 at 8:13 am

As a public service message after the strange disparagement of Mt. Benson’s eminence here, I would strongly advise against underestimating Mt. Benson or any mountain if one decides to tackle it. Similar to Vancouver’s Grouse Grind in length, gradient, elevation and elevation change, expect changeable weather, significant temperature difference and steep rocky pitches, icy in winter. Allow 4-5 hours round trip. Don’t do it solo in winter as a first time ascent and do bring traction attachments. Because it’s popular, the trail is often hard-packed very slippery snow over treeless rock scrambling at the top.

Mountains don’t play, homie.

————–

How many ill-equipped dilettantes have died on the North Shore mountains after one bad decision?

“But I can’t be dying! My phone is telling me I’m only 1.5 kilometres from a Starbucks, and I can see taillights on the Lion’sGate Bridge.”

#93 BS meter on 11.13.22 at 9:58 am

#60 Ustabe

I ran your comments through my BS meter and they came up ‘so full of it your eyes are brown’.

Love it when people post things they think make them sound clever but reveal how full of it they are.

#94 millmech on 11.13.22 at 10:01 am

#87 Gen Z
All those corporations gouging you, you own them, get a loan to buy them (Canadian ones) and have a nice tax deduction as well as income rolling in from the dividends.

#95 P.S. Ustabe on 11.13.22 at 10:03 am

The only way I became aware of your ridiculous comment was due to reading Sail Away’s response.

I don’t even skim (or pretend to as Faron does) your comments, you get the auto scroll as does Faron and about 80% of others.

Love how Sail Away doesn’t take your bait, must really get to you. Guess that’s why you and F are so obsessed.

#96 Dr V on 11.13.22 at 10:29 am

91 Sailo

Correct. The mountain, any mountain, does not care.

People have died on Mount Benson.

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.13.22 at 10:31 am

@#88 Wrk.dvr
“Had the GOP not stacked the Supreme Court with dicks, Roe would have remained intact and Trumps hand picked idiotic candidates would now control two branches of the government as a result of the election!”
+++

Yep.
Hell hath no fury like millions of voters told their rights have been taken away by religious zealots.

The Supreme Court nomination process is a joke.

Asking a nominated religious zealot if “Their religious beliefs will affect their Court decisions…”

Is like asking Faron to admit he’s wrong.
Lots of bafflegab but no conclusive answers.
Faron.
Have you ever considered politics?

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.13.22 at 10:41 am

The Democrats MAINTAIN control of the Senate.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-keep-control-us-senate-crush-republican-red-wave-hopes-2022-11-13/

Trump IS the BIGGEST LOSER!

Awesome news.

#99 Dharma Bum on 11.13.22 at 10:44 am

#77 Faron

There’s a bit o gear for everything these days. Do more with less.
—————————————————————————————————–

Good point. I was thinking the same thing the other day when I took a browse through the REI store near Scottsdale.

The offering of “gear” is mind boggling. The prices for the stuff even more so. It’s just too much. More gimmicks, gizmos, gadgets and widgets than you can shake a stick at.

They did have an interesting program, though, whereby people can exchange their “slightly used” gear (i.e., like a trade in), so customers have the option of buying perfectly good equipment at a significantly discounted price.

Nevertheless, your advice of doing more with less is sound and appreciated.

Also, congratulations on doing a 100 miler. Impressive. I don’t think I could hack that.

#100 Sail Away on 11.13.22 at 11:41 am

#99 Dharma Bum on 11.13.22 at 10:44 am
#77 Faron

There’s a bit o gear for everything these days. Do more with less.

—————

Good point.

….your advice of doing more with less is sound and appreciated.

—————

No, specifically for Benson in winter, it is not a good point. It’s dangerous underestimation. Search and Rescue will let you know that. Don’t go up without cleats.

Before cleats, even 10-15 years ago, far fewer people climbed the mountain and the path in snow was more a ‘posthole stairway’ with everyone using the same steps. Now with good sports cleats available, many more people hike and run it all winter, creating a packed snow icy luge track that is particularly sketchy on steep pitches without handholds.

Don’t let bad advice put you in danger. You can borrow my cleats. Size 12.

#101 Westcdn on 11.13.22 at 1:29 pm

I said crypto was dead. Not so. I should have named “store of value” much like RE. Things have value is not sitting in a Porche in heavy traffic when a Kia will do – never mind a Hummer. In my station of life, I have tp choose carefully.

God seems to want me to stay around but it is an odd way. Death and evil do not matter – just the way I deal with life. My cataracts are bad. I even went to the CNIB for a white walking cane after the recent snowfall. It is rather cool. Hopefully, a future donation. I am up for surgery in a few days. I called to see if there were cancellations as I was scheduled for January and lucked out.

I have held firm in this bear times. It was the right decision so far. I still want inflation broken and be able to pay my bills. I need dividends and the occasional gain/loss.

#102 Regjeg on 11.13.22 at 5:22 pm

Very interesting data set you present here, Doug.

However, the emotional lure of the well known Turkey Trap story is also very persuasive.

http://eclecticsite.com/turkeytrap.html

#103 Marc Roger on 11.13.22 at 6:39 pm

37. Sail Away
There are many ways to rebalance. My fav is selling nothing and using incoming cash to rebalance he allocation rather than messing with existing holdings.
Absolutely.

#104 VladTor on 11.13.22 at 7:16 pm

DELETED (Russian troll)