The ruse

Once upon a time there were those who didn’t have a whole lot of money. Young, creative people.

“Let’s make some,” they said to each other, excitedly. “We can call it crypto.”

And, verily, they did.

Years later the third-largest pension fund in Canada, safeguarding billions in taxpayer-subsidized retirement benefits for Ontario teachers, heard about this crypto. “We invest in innovative companies that use technology to help shape new categories,” said Olivia Steedman, of the fund. “This fits well with our mandate.”

And, lo, the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund invested an estimated $200 million of their members’ retirement money in the new money. Well, actually they bought into an exchange, FTX, that facilitated trading in crypto. But it was believed to be a good, compliant exchange run by Sam Bankman-Fried (known in the forest as SBF), unlike the evil Binance outfit headed by Changpeng Zhao, that the hedgehogs called CZ. Thanks in part to the teachers, SBF prospered. By late 2021 he was worth $26 billion.

Said he, in accepting the gifts of his new bestie investors:

“We founded FTX two years ago with the idea of creating a better financial marketplace. Today we are focused on establishing FTX as a trustworthy and innovative exchange by regularly engaging with regulators around the world, and constantly seeking opportunities to enhance our offerings for digital asset investors. For this round, we capitalized on those strides and were able to partner with investors that prioritize positioning FTX as the world’s most transparent and compliant cryptocurrency exchange.”

But within months there he was  – on the line with creditors, shareholders (including the OTPP) and crypto owners. “I effed up,” he told them. Then, after his own fortune had evaporated and it was revealed TFX was $8 billion in the hole and about to collapse, he announced that CZ’s exchange, a decentralized and roguish operation, would bail everyone out.

But it didn’t. “Our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help,” said Binance. Now FTX faces misery plus investigations by the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice. Its imminent collapse comes after other recent crypto disasters (like Celsius, which ate $150 million in pension assets of Quebec’s Caisse) and billions in client funds have been apparently been frozen, lost, cancelled or ghosted.

“Given the fluid nature of the situation we have no comment right now,” says a rep of the Teachers fund. Meanwhile many other organizations are equally stung, and face writing off 100% of their related investments. The exchange crash and lost funds took a bite out of all forms of crypto, including Bitcoin which tumbled to $15,000 earlier this week. (It was at $47,000 in March – so this was a loss of almost 70% in nine months.)

The moral: assets made out of nothing have a tendency to return to that state.

Digital currencies and the technology allowing them are welcome innovations. Some day we’ll get this worked out with a meaningful, stable global medium of exchange replacing national banknotes and coins. But crypto in its current form has proven to be a casino, over and again. Manipulated. Unstable. There have been some spectacular winners and legions of deceived, mistreated, naïve and greedy losers. Nobody should trust ‘money’ that’s unregulated, backed only by faerie farts and iconoclasm. Crypto has no place in your portfolio, nor do any of the ancillary businesses mushrooming out of it.

Meanwhile, stock markets romped on Thursday after US inflation came in cool. The gains were epic, on speculation this may mean an earlier end to interest rate hikes and avert any meaningful recession in 2023. In other words, in the real-world investors were betting on jobs, growth and profits, and making bank as a result. In the crypto, made-from-zilch world, the gutters ran red.

And so it came to pass. Nature always wins.

About the picture: “Greetings from Gatineau,” writes Agnes. “My husband and I have faithfully read your blog since its early days and are grateful for many years of happily renting, saving, investing and watching all the FOMO from the sidelines. This is a photo of our recently adopted rescue named Tito. Here he is watching a crisp November sunrise while bravely protecting me from all the squirrels. Thanks for all the work you put into the blog every day, we appreciate it more than you’ll ever know! It would be an honour for Tito to grace one of your blog posts.”

148 comments ↓

#1 chalkie on 11.10.22 at 3:02 pm

Stay in the Markets, little correlation between high interest rates that will affect mortgage, vs the stock markets.

The stock markets will reward you in the coming months, be patient and roll with the blows, it will not be in vain versus the housing that will be in pain.
There are many peaks and valleys ahead, soon the bottleneck will burst and allow the river to flow Northward.
There is also no reality between what is fact or fiction now for the stock markets, notice how the markets took off today, just by a little difference news because inflation came down a little more than anticipated.
The inflation numbers based on 100%, the US inflation was at 8.2 and was expected to come in around 7.9, but came in at 7.7 percent. That is like having 10,000 pennies in a large wheelbarrow and taking out two extra pennies, you would not even mess two pennies in such a pile, but look how the markets reacted positive to such LITTLE good news, 2/10,000, the market rallies ahead are in the making.

Mortgage funds in Canada halts payouts after a liquidity crunch. The borrowers stopped making payments, they cannot afford to make the loan payments. We have entered a National Crisis for housing costs even after the nationwide discounted house prices have fallen.
House prices are about to come undone like a pair of wool socks. An example, when the big guys can no longer make good on their loans, what do you think is happening to the average variable mortgage homeowner, going broke, going bust and soon will enter the same valley of cannot afford to make the loan payments. The home builders have held out has long has they could on their reserves, but the money has dried up and reality has kicked in.

This country (Canada) is about to offer up some great deals in real estate, losses can only be deferred for so long, the bubble is no longer round, it is very heavy at the bottom and about to pop.

Take notice with all the high-priced job layoffs in the tech sector, to the tune of 84,000 people.
Elon Musk is the first one to have the watermelons to order a 100% office return after a 50% staff firing of the complainers and non-producers to be the first through the doors.
Governments have spoiled great employees with the never-ending handouts, the chicken has come home to roost, it is roll up your socks and get to work or there is the door, your choice.
Work from home is dead and return to the office is ahead.

Do not rush out to buy that home yet, your deal is waiting in a short time zone.
When new homes start to compete, the housing war will have just begun for the home owners, prices will drop like a hot potato.

Quote of the day: Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower

#2 Captain Uppa on 11.10.22 at 3:05 pm

All of a sudden, no one talks about crypto anymore. Red laser eyes quietly removed from Twitter profile pictures.

And poor Tom Brady & Steph Curry, who’s crypto investments are imploding.

It’s been very interesting to see how many people, blue collar to elite athlete, have been bamboozled by this monetary cloud of faerie farts.

#3 Laughing All The Way to the Bank on 11.10.22 at 3:08 pm

Why are people in such a rush to waste and risk their money in the markets?

#4 Gone For A Long Long While on 11.10.22 at 3:09 pm

You have long been a crypto skeptic Garth. I listened.

But to write that “USA inflation came in cool” at 7.7% is a bit silly, isn’t it?. Is that where we are at now with inflation: that 7.7% is somehow a victory? I seriously hope not.

First.

#5 tired of politicians, current, past and future on 11.10.22 at 3:10 pm

somebody is going to jail. not saying who but I think we know. The crypto crowd isn’t as politically protected as the big banks were in 2008 despite SBF and a couple of others on the executive ‘team’ donating 70 million to democrats this cycle.

#6 Prince Polo on 11.10.22 at 3:13 pm

Days like today make me so happy to be a loser renter. I want to hear from Soren about how much of a kick he got from watching the markets go uppa uppa UPPA today.

#7 Polozified on 11.10.22 at 3:14 pm

FTX may be worth nothing, but my NFT monkey picture is worth at least an emoji. Maybe even two!

#8 Steve on 11.10.22 at 3:14 pm

Crypto != Bitcoin. Never has and never will. All crypto will go to 0 against bitcoin.

Are you 100% sure Bitcoin is a bad investment? If not, then as a proper risk manager, and the asymmetrical opportunity it presents, BTC deserves a place in everyone’s portfolio.

Should it be 100%. Not my place to say. Everyone has a different risk tolerance, but everyone should get off of 0, in the 1% chance that it does what I believe it will.

#9 B on 11.10.22 at 3:14 pm

What a Ponzi!

Who’s getting fired at the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund?

#10 PeterfromCalgary on 11.10.22 at 3:18 pm

The many scams and volatility of Crypto have made it unfit as a medium of exchange which was it’s original use case.

Instead of providing the world with a low cost way to exchange crypto for goods and services it has warped into a sort of high tech pyramid scheme.

In the short run crypto coins may go up or down but in the long run they will lose most of their value.

I don’t think cypto will go away entirely we still have tulips after all. Unfortunately this crypto mania will ruin many people’s finances.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

#11 Blair on 11.10.22 at 3:20 pm

I don’t mean to be disrespectful, but I want to bring up a BNN article (today) with David Rosenberg. He said that there will be a recession next year and that equities are in trouble and will do poorly in 2023. He suggested that today’s rise in stocks is an aberration. Why is there such a variation in predictions?

Because he can’t back down. – Garth

#12 JSS on 11.10.22 at 3:22 pm

Hope everyone stayed invested. Today was too good of a day to miss.

Happy Remembrance day tomorrow to all. And thank you to our veterans.

#13 Penny Henny on 11.10.22 at 3:22 pm

#165 Ustabe on 11.10.22 at 1:12 pm

Nissan’s luxury brand is Infinity. Lexus belongs to Honda, I think.

////////////////

Doesn’t anyone know cars here?

Nissan-Infiniti
Toyota-Lexus
Honda-Acura
Hyundai-Genesis

#14 Timmy on 11.10.22 at 3:25 pm

Rest assured if Crypto man, rage farmer Skippy gets in we are doomed.

#15 hafi on 11.10.22 at 3:28 pm

“While there is uncertainty about the future of FTX, any financial loss on this investment will have limited impact on the Plan, given this investment represents less than 0.05% of our total net assets.”

#16 TurnerNation on 11.10.22 at 3:28 pm

As this is an Economic weblog let’s take a look a the Permanent Rolling Economic (& Social) Lockdowns. As we enter Year 4

March 2020. What a gift to our leaders. Permanent, unlimited power, deployed lockstep globally. For our health.

This person still fighting an $800 ticket for walking their dog in a park.
https://old.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/yrj6ng/trial_outcome_from_fighting_2020_covid_ticket_for/

It all begins with one first step. So what’s different this wintertime? Let me tell you. The governments have had a year to build the “voluntary” isolation sites (wink wink), all over.

https://web.archive.org/web/20201022044041/https:/buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-data/tender-notice/PW-ZL-105-38463

———- This all makes sense one you know that there no more ‘news’ only the Manufactuing of consent.

.Australia: On Thursday, Queensland moved its Covid traffic light system to “amber”, recommending the return of masks among vulnerable people and in high-risk settings as the state entered its fourth wave. (theguardian.com)

.We may soon be asked to put on masks once again: Toronto health official (timminspress.com)

.Majority of Canadians support return of face masks in indoor public spaces if deemed necessary: survey (ctvnews.ca)

.China: Virus lockdowns hit China economic powerhouse Guangzhou (apnews.com)

#17 alexinvestor on 11.10.22 at 3:31 pm

Wow, inflation is squashed, stock markets roaring again, and we can laugh at the 5% GIC guys … you can get that in one day at the S&P. Looks like Tiff will have an excuse to stop the rate hikes.

#18 OriginalAlex on 11.10.22 at 3:32 pm

I have a standing offer to a Cryptobro colleague of buying one Bitcoin for 50$. I fear one day I will have to lose 50$ on it, and that day is coming soon-ish. A ponzi, all of it.

#19 Nonplused on 11.10.22 at 3:34 pm

“Only one clear truth emerged from this election: this country is evenly divided and each side thinks the other is literally insane.”

– James Woods

Now that the punditry has had some time to digest what happened, a theory is emerging that I think is plausible:

The 18-30 year old voting segment, particularly women, “aborted” the red wave.

I, along with many others, didn’t think the abortion issue was that big of a factor, seeing as how the population is pretty divided on the issue. However, fear is one of the strongest motivators out there, and “fear of losing the right to an abortion” apparently got large numbers of young women out to the poles. And they have spoken. There will be no red wave while that is perceived to be on the ballot.

You wouldn’t think that one issue would make that much difference, but with so many races “too close to call” before the voting even starts, it doesn’t take much. 1% can throw it decisively.

They say that “the candidate” is more important than anything in an election, but I don’t think that is true when there is a major “issue”. A major issue trumps the candidates every time.

This demographic, by the way, also strongly supports Trudeau in Canada, which may explain a few things. Pierre has his work cut out for him. I don’t see him appealing to this demographic, at least not in Ontario, Quebec and Vancouver, so we should factor that in when considering how threatened the Trudeau/Singh coalition really is, no matter who the Conservatives throw up against them.

Conservatives on both sides of the boarder are not really addressing the concerns of young women, and until they do so they will struggle at the voting both.

But perhaps that is as it should be in a democracy.

Blowback for the supreme court decision I guess.

*Disclaimer: I don’t have an opinion on abortion. Well, I do, about 5 of them, all contradictory. But as a self-identified male I try to abstain from that discussion as much as possible. All I am arguing here is that the population most affected by the issue seems to have made their voices heard. We should listen.

#20 Barry on 11.10.22 at 3:37 pm

I’m seventy and rarely listen to the consensus view. Stock markets have a history of the next “sure thing” – canals, railways, real estate, nifty fifties, gold, tech and now crypto. I’ve been around for a the last three and guess what … I didn’t invest in any of those. You have to have a source of value and cash flow. And you never know where the chips will fall in the wreckage. Wish I bought Amazon in 2002 for example but how does one know? So I stick to the tried and tested – utilities, pipelines, grocers, our banks and railways. Growing dividends are the best safeguard against inflation. Your CPP, OAS and fixed income will not cut it.

#21 Jim on 11.10.22 at 3:39 pm

Wow, Someone’s head needs to roll at the teachers pension fund. I always thought they had astute investors leading this fund, I guess I was wrong because the Crypto markets appreciation was based on finding a greater fool.

#22 Quintilian on 11.10.22 at 3:41 pm

“But crypto in its current form has proven to be a casino, over and again. Manipulated. Unstable.”

Yes indeed.

Can’t pin this one on retail day traders, the institutional investors fell for it as well.

The difference is that the “experts” should know better.

But look what the experts did today.

#23 The Original Jake on 11.10.22 at 3:42 pm

No crypto here. If I was younger I probably would have chanced it… and likely held onto paper gains and into the crash. But, I’ve learned a bit since then. I’ll stick to boring dividends. In the end, the tortoise wins.

#24 TeachersFund-WeGetPaidFirst on 11.10.22 at 3:45 pm

from the Teacher’s Pension Plan boardroom:

“Well, if we find that we fall short of pension obligations, we simply have the employed teachers and the taxpayer partner (taxpayers) make up the difference with higher pension contributions.”

Back to business at usual at the pension fund. We “smartest guys in the room” still get paid our high salaries first.

#25 Josh Feldman on 11.10.22 at 3:49 pm

Your favorite adversary once wanted Bitcoin to be one of the legal tender currencies in Canada.

At least we can agree on that.

#26 enthalpy on 11.10.22 at 3:51 pm

The folks who made these bets….were either going to be geniuses or…as we are unfortunately seeing. Caught with their pants down.

In time, it will show they were right all along. Jumped the gun a bit though. Can’t blame them really.

#27 NOSTRADAMUS on 11.10.22 at 3:53 pm

COLD COCKED!
Big speculator graves are dug with tiny shovels, a little more debt added here, a little more back tax dragging here, a little more well deserved luxuries, waterfront home, boats, toys, travel added here, a little more arrogance and entitlement added here. Grand Mother had a lot of good old fashioned advice. “It’s far easier to spend money than to make it. When there is no money coming in the door, love flies out the window.”
New point. I just caught our Central Bank head Tiffer, abbobin and a weaving on the big screen. He was teary eyed with hat in hand offering his condolences for the issue he and his compadres had created with artificial low interest rates. (Just kidding!) New point. A sucker punch, or a coward punch, or a cold cock is a punch made without warning while the recipient is distracted, allowing no time for preparation or defense. I suspect a lot of little people are now suffering the effects of being cold cocked by the Central Bankers suddenly becoming like vicious Bipolar demons from hell. Devil’s Advocate.

#28 Pina on 11.10.22 at 3:53 pm

inflation will be bad soon as winter approaches and home heating costs will be at least 40% higher, count on it. Good thing I have now my 4.9% 10 year GICs, RRIF GICs paying me monthly interest $4,000 a month and no mortgage, no car payments, no debt, house fully paid off.

#29 Nonplused on 11.10.22 at 3:55 pm

“The moral: assets made out of nothing have a tendency to return to that state.”

Here, here! I, like Garth, have always been suspicious of BitCoin and other such things. Seems to me all they do is waste a lot of electricity to address a need that isn’t there. And if CO2 is your concern, it’s doubly bad. Worse than a car, as it doesn’t even get you anywhere. No useful work is done. If you were to ever try and find a complete waste of precious resources, this would be it. Hundred’s of thousands of processors wasting untold amounts of electricity to do useless calculations. What a waste. And a false signal to the energy markets. Greta should be most displeased.

If you want (mostly) unregulated wealth outside the system, buy gold, same as you always did. Sure, it goes up and down too, but it can’t evaporate into nothing.

———————————-

“Meanwhile, stock markets romped on Thursday after US inflation came in cool.”

What inflation, where, came in “cool”? It’s still close to 8%. Money isn’t collapsing as fast as crypto, but it’s running a strong second right now.

It is interesting how the narrative has changed. No longer are we discussing the horrors of 8% inflation, but instead discussing whether it’s going to 7% or 9% as if that is a major point. Hello!! The target is still 2%. And the major driver as always is energy prices. And this winter promises to be a doozy.

I’d say “hang on to your hats”, but “hang on to your toques” seems more appropriate.

#30 Nora Lenderby on 11.10.22 at 3:55 pm

People should do less talking to you and more listening, but it isn’t different this time.

You’re a wise man, Mr. T.

#31 Jason on 11.10.22 at 3:57 pm

While there is some schadenfreude in the silencing of the crypto bros, I think a lot of folks are going to be feeling a lot of pain with Crypto Crash 2022. Garth often talks about the danger of fear when investing. This post shows the danger of greed. So Garth stays balanced. And diversified.

#32 Steve on 11.10.22 at 3:57 pm

Pina,

Owning a GIC = guaranteed income confiscation.

You have to go up the risk curve if you want keep your purchasing power

#33 CL on 11.10.22 at 4:08 pm

“Given the fluid nature of the situation we have no comment right now,” says a rep of the Teachers fund

haha…pride hurt a little? Aren’t people managing such large sums of money called smart money?. I never bought one *coin* of anything because it was clearly a casino so, how is it that a mere peasant like me with no brains knows this but the “smart money” got caught? Will there be repercussions such as job losses for these smart people or will they continue in their high priced positions and suffer no consequences like the CB’ers that caused transitory inflation and are now fixing it?

#34 Steve on 11.10.22 at 4:09 pm

Every comment here is equating crypto to bitcoin. They are not the same.

Are you all 100% sure bitcoin is dead this time, versus every other time?

Or, is there a 1% chance that it will survive and thrive. This is what we call an asymmetrical opportunity. I know I’m never 100% sure of anything.

Just get off of 0. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket, but get off 0.

The only thing we know for 100% certainty is that all currencies are melting ice cubes, and 1$ today will not be worth 1$ in the future.

#35 AM in MN on 11.10.22 at 4:10 pm

Garth,

I still don’t think you understand the difference between Bitcoin and all of the others. The US SEC classified it as property, all the others as Securities (whioch should be regulated).

People moan about the amount of energy it takes to mine it and run the network, but that’s what gives it this property.

You could say the same for the code that creates a video game. It has no intrinsic value except that some people will pay money for it, and once it’s created it never disappears.

These pension funds should have just bought some BTC and then HODL. When you buy shares in an unregulated Casino, without a clear understanding of how it works, well you deserve what you get. Hundreds of podcasts out there explaining this very well. Their fiduciaries should have taken some time to listen to them.

BTC has value as a medium of exchange, and is used that way. One can argue about how much value, but a free market will set that price. Plenty of new innovations coming on-line to be able to use it as a backbone for secure files transfers, things like music and movies and bank records. It isn’t going away, but most of the sh..coins will.

#36 Bill zufelt on 11.10.22 at 4:12 pm

$200 million out of a $640 billion fund is a fraction of a fraction of a fart in the wind. They have many risk assets that are just as bad,worse even than crypto—let’s keep it in some kind of perspective please.

#37 Damifino on 11.10.22 at 4:12 pm

If they’d only spent a few minutes a day reading greaterfool.ca (sans comments, of course).

So much heartache could have been avoided.

Oh well…

#38 Faron on 11.10.22 at 4:13 pm

#172 Shawn on 11.10.22 at 2:02 pm

Brands that provide Cache

Is that L1 or L2 cache? Or a cache of nuts?

————-

Faron, I thought we agreed that when I comment your only role was to smile and nod. Please knock it off.

But if I did that, people would be mislead into thinking you have a clue about what you speak of. Sometimes you do, often you seem not to. Sorry.

#39 truefacts on 11.10.22 at 4:18 pm

Sold a few growt stocks today with the plump gains and directed some into hated preferred (rate-resets).
The yield on some have climbed well over 6% and in some cases 7%!!!

I’ll miss some of the upside to reduce potential downside…

#40 Cowtown Cowboy on 11.10.22 at 4:19 pm

One look sbf should have had any sane investor running for the exit..

#41 Faron on 11.10.22 at 4:19 pm

#29 Nonplused on 11.10.22 at 3:55 pm

And the major driver as always is energy prices.

Core CPI was 6.3%. So, sorry, no.

#42 Nonplused on 11.10.22 at 4:22 pm

#94 Why the Parallel Reality? on 11.09.22 at 6:27 pm
#69 Nonplused on 11.09.22 at 3:59 pm
“Oh, and did you hear that Putin (age 70) has ordered his invading, occupying, losing troops out of a key Ukraine city that was captured months ago? And is too shamed and shunned to attend next week’s G-20 meeting?”

I wouldn’t read to much into every single troop movement in Ukraine. And why would Putin go to the G-20? I don’t think he’s welcome. It would be sort of like showing up for your ex-wife’s wedding. I’d pass.

===============================

I do agree with much of what you usually post, which makes your constant implicit defence and sympathetic comments towards this cretin puzzling.

Just let us all know when the invasion that we assured wasn’t going to happen even as he was massing thousands of the troops along the border, to “de-Nazifi” Ukraine, that would only last a few days, but was really just a “special operation”, will be over.

—————————————

Ignoring the concerns of the Russians will be about as successful as ignoring certain voting demographics. I don’t think I am “defending Putin”, so much as pointing out that them there disgusting evil cretin Russians have concerns too. Even the “Ukrainian” ones. They want to be able to send their kids to school without being shelled. And Moscow doesn’t want short range nuclear missiles in Ukraine. Not totally unreasonable positions.

But to answer what I think was your question, “When will the special operation be over?”, it already is. the Dnipro River is the new defacto border, and Kherson being on the other side of it is indefensible. There is also the question of the damn, which is under attack. No use leaving troops and civilians in the flood zone or trapped on the other side of the river.

#43 IHCTD9 on 11.10.22 at 4:26 pm

#13 Penny Henny on 11.10.22 at 3:22 pm
#165 Ustabe on 11.10.22 at 1:12 pm

Nissan’s luxury brand is Infinity. Lexus belongs to Honda, I think.

////////////////

Doesn’t anyone know cars here?

Nissan-Infiniti
Toyota-Lexus
Honda-Acura
Hyundai-Genesis
_____

Who drives a car anymore? (Other than Ponzie)

#44 Faron on 11.10.22 at 4:28 pm

#177 Sail Away on 11.10.22 at 2:15 pm
#168 Faron on 11.10.22 at 1:44 pm
#154 Sail Away on 11.10.22 at 11:41 am

Rights are defined and granted by the jurisdiction of authority. There is no fundamental. In the US, which is the country we’ve been discussing, abortion is not a right.

——-

Incorrect. Embarrassingly so. See articles 3, 5, and 12 of the UN declaration on human rights.

——-

Surely you don’t think the UN makes US laws?

Of course not. Human rights are fundamental and governed by ethics. Protecting them is done in various parts of the US constitution via amendments and legal precedent. I’ll remind you again that Alito lied to us and promised to uphold precedent including Roe. It’s interesting to note that ethical arguments fall on deaf ears with you. Quite telling actually.

#45 @J on 11.10.22 at 4:29 pm

I have a good friend who is very well educated in math and finance. We have lots of good discussion and debate about all sorts of topics.

He was against investing in crypto until the past few months. He said that he has reversed his position on crypto and has invested a small (less than 2% net worth) amount into it. His thesis is that even though he doesn’t fully or really understand it, enough other people supposedly do see value, and so he feels he must put a small portion of his net worth into it. In his mind, even if there is only a 5% chance of crypto success, he feels he must take that risk, as it may become something of great value.

I think his logic is flawed. I think you have to ask WHY others see value in something. So far I have been unconvinced of others explanation of crypto value. Several believers have the rational of “everybody’s onboard so you better get in too!” This is irrational and dangerous thinking in my estimation. So I have steered clear of crypto investing. I cannot believe our pension funds invested in this dodgy area.

On another note, and related to previous blog posts, a large private Canadian mortgage fund has halted payouts because of a liquidity issue. These so-called “safe” investments have embedded risks.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/mortgage-fund-in-canada-halts-payouts-amid-liquidity-crunch-1.1844092

#46 Søren Angst on 11.10.22 at 4:30 pm

#6 Prince Polo

You. Me. Everybody vested.

Ya, it was nice to see a +1200 pt DOW day. Getting old, want to savour every last minute and second that started in October just before Halloween (like I said it would…yeah me?). My stuff up +0.34% to +7%, not a -‘ve in sight. Very happy.

AND IT WOULD HAVE BEEN HIGHER IF SOMEONE HAD PUT A BIG CAT PHOTO UP TODAY.

Just sayin’.

And,

Signore Set It & Forghedaboudit (a.k.a., D.O.M.)

Was paying close attention today as well.

Imagine that?

———————-

Garth, the kids had a good run. If they bought Bitcoin 5 yrs ago they’re still up 166%. 1 year ago -69%. From the beginning +5,607%.

Sad a lot of people got hurt by that exchange esp. the Pension Funds. Reckless investing by them.

Though Garth I have to say, beauty like value is in the eye of the beholder.

Milton Friedman’s story …

The Island Of Stone Money
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2011/02/15/131934618/the-island-of-stone-money

What is money after all if not a thought, a notion, that everyone accepts and buys into?

Like you wrote, they’ll get it correct eventually though the carnage to that juncture so far has been pretty frightening if you were to ask me.

#47 Larry1 on 11.10.22 at 4:33 pm

I was surprised to hear Warren Buffet say in his AGM, that nobody is short bitcoin. On the TSX, one can short *#itcoin. BITI (bitcoin short ETF) for the win! I enjoy holding it in my TFSA because bitcoin is so dumb

#48 Chimingin on 11.10.22 at 4:33 pm

Ontario Teacher’s Pension website shows $242B in net assets…not $640B as per #36…sheesh.

#49 Daveyboy on 11.10.22 at 4:39 pm

This loser renter just made enough money today to pay his rent for the year. What a day in the markets!Plus the home I rent, has lost over 60k in value in the last three months. Thanks Garth for all the awesome knowledge!

#50 Søren Angst on 11.10.22 at 4:49 pm

#41 Faron

And the major driver as always is energy prices.

Core CPI was 6.3%. So, sorry, no.

———————–

Famous last words …

Go to this StatCan table on Inflation. Observe far right %’s. Spot those that are double digits esp. the top 2.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221019/t001a-eng.htm

Then observe this chart and spot the 1 component that was highest in Aug 2022 and has receded the most by Sept 2022.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221019/cg-a002-eng.htm

—–

Your admonition to #29 Nonplused …

BS Walks & StatCan Talks.

Engage brain before keyboard.

#51 Sail Away on 11.10.22 at 4:54 pm

#38 Faron on 11.10.22 at 4:13 pm

…if I did that, people would be mislead into thinking you have a clue about what you speak of.

——–

Ding! First insult in steerage for the day.

The only way to stop insulting/demeaning/uncivil behaviour here is to identify when it appears, as above, and shine a light.

Shame! Do better.

Oh, and separately, as a small, helpful aside: there is also a spelling error.

#52 millmech on 11.10.22 at 4:56 pm

The experts here know you can buy puts and calls on bitcoin and buying bitcoin or ethereum yesterday you would be up 10%-16%, double to triple what SPY did today that posters are crowing about.
Each to their own though, I enjoy reading other investors opinions and hypothesis for their strategies.
I wonder how much the pension fund was down on the market decline overall and if those losses overshadowed the crypto losses. I would not be surprised if the fund allocated even more to riskier assets than crypto.
Quite a few people consider anything other than GICs to be too risky and the stock market to be gambling so there is that.

Buying puts and calls on bitcoin and buying bitcoin or Ethereum is not investing. It is rank gambling. – Garth

#53 Dr V on 11.10.22 at 4:58 pm

17 Alex

“Looks like Tiff will have an excuse to stop the rate hikes.”
——————————————————–

Inflation is still waaaay above target, and the recent increases have not adversely affected financial markets.

I think this gives Tiff a good reason keep the increases going.

#54 The real Kip (Ret) on 11.10.22 at 4:58 pm

In fairness SBF did say he was sorry and, it’s on him so, there’s that.

#55 -=withwings=- on 11.10.22 at 5:03 pm

Doesn’t anyone know cars here?

Nissan-Infiniti
Toyota-Lexus
Honda-Acura
Hyundai-Genesis
————-

Hyundai is delighted to be included in your list

#56 Ole Doberman on 11.10.22 at 5:03 pm

Why is it always the Ontario and Quebec pensions that never seem to learn?

Anyone remember Bre-X in the 90’s??

#57 Ed on 11.10.22 at 5:05 pm

So ethical Quebec’s Caisse wont invest in Canadian oil businesses but investing in fairie farts is fine.
Love it.

#58 Søren Angst on 11.10.22 at 5:05 pm

#51 Sail Away communiqué to #38 Faron.

helpful aside: there is also a spelling error.

———

Says the person that probably ran his prose thru Spell and Grammar Check about 1,000X before posting that coy little Sonnet, -10 lines or so.

– Shake not Thy gory locks at me. Young Fry of Treachery.

#59 TurnerNation on 11.10.22 at 5:05 pm

How’s the greasy, Subprime Slime lending market doing?

——–
goeasy Ltd. Reports Record Results for the Third Quarter & Announces New $200 Million Securitization Facility

Loan Originations of $641 million, up 47% from $436 million
Loan Growth of $219 million, up 117% from $101 million
Loan Portfolio of $2.59 billion, up 37% from $1.90 billion
Diluted EPS of $2.86; Adjusted Diluted EPS1 of $2.95, up 9% from $2.70

MISSISSAUGA, Ontario, Nov. 10, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — goeasy Ltd. (TSX: GSY), (“goeasy” or the “Company”), one of Canada’s leading non-prime consumer lenders, today reported results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2022

#60 Penny Henny on 11.10.22 at 5:14 pm

Once upon a time there were those who didn’t have a whole lot of money. Young, creative people.-GT
//////////////

I thought you were going to tell a story of you and Dorothy.

#61 Charity on 11.10.22 at 5:16 pm

#56 Ole Doberman

Yup totally remember bre-x with that said they are all dead now and billions gone with them.

Just watching to see who jumps out of a helicopter today.

#62 Dazed & CONfused on 11.10.22 at 5:22 pm

And to think our Prime Minister-in-waiting, PePe, the CPC’s ideologically blinded-folded, perpetually angry, vitriol-slinging, gas-lighting, master-of-bafflegab of half-truths, a barking chihuahua ReformaCon who was once an advisor to Alberta’s infamous evolution-denying Stockwell Day, milking his six-figure salary from the public trough since he was 25, who’s never known a real job in his entire life, a financial and constitutional illiterate who stood shoulder-to-shoulder with his bouncy-castle economic extortionist fringe magnets, recently pumped Crypto to Canadians as a solution to their inflation woes.
Truly frightening.

#63 Sail Away on 11.10.22 at 5:26 pm

#58 Søren Angst on 11.10.22 at 5:05 pm
#51 Sail Away communiqué to #38 Faron.

helpful aside: there is also a spelling error.

——–

Says the person that probably ran his prose thru Spell and Grammar Check about 1,000X before posting that coy little Sonnet, -10 lines or so.

– Shake not Thy gory locks at me. Young Fry of Treachery.

——–

To err is human; to ‘Arrrh’ is pirate

#64 Faron on 11.10.22 at 5:27 pm

#51 Sail Away on 11.10.22 at 4:54 pm

Hwy, it’s good you are on top of this important accounting endeavour. Suits someone of your credentials. Given how badly you were losing our previous discussion, a wise move indeed.

#65 Jens on 11.10.22 at 5:28 pm

#29 Nonplused on 11.10.22 at 3:55 pm

What inflation, where, came in “cool”? It’s still close to 8%. Money isn’t collapsing as fast as crypto, but it’s running a strong second right now.
—-

It’s the month-over-month increase that was more spectacular today: 0.4%. Projected over a full year, that means an annual 5% increase. Core inflation was even lower: 0.3%. If, as most expect, price increases keep slowing down, we’ll be pretty close to stability a year from now.

#66 CJohnC on 11.10.22 at 5:29 pm

#50 Sore Angst
Engage brain before keyboard.

Half the comments section would disappear.

#67 IHCTD9 on 11.10.22 at 5:42 pm

#51 Sail Away on 11.10.22 at 4:54 pm
#38 Faron on 11.10.22 at 4:13 pm

…if I did that, people would be mislead into thinking you have a clue about what you speak of.

——–

Ding! First insult in steerage for the day.

The only way to stop insulting/demeaning/uncivil behaviour here is to identify when it appears, as above, and shine a light.
———-

The best technique is “positive reinforcement”. If Faron is acting out, no cookie (ie. no response). If he is behaving well, then he gets a cookie (acknowledgement).

Religiously implemented with iron resolve, the option for Faron will become to either behave, or not receive the attention he craves more than probably anything else in the world. That’s typical of NPD. Also typical of NPD sufferers is being a master of manipulation. You’d need to be able to resist the temptation to reply. He’s good at pushing buttons and making himself hard to ignore. That’s how he gets his fix.

Shining a light on literally anything he says, is exactly what he wants. What he craves. You’ve got hunting dogs, so you’re probably already familiar with the drill. Works on all kinds of species.

#68 kommykim on 11.10.22 at 5:42 pm

Canadian real estate lender Romspen Investment Corp. has halted redemptions on its largest fund after a number of borrowers stopped making payments:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/mortgage-fund-in-canada-halts-payouts-amid-liquidity-crunch-1.1844092

#69 Is anybody listening? on 11.10.22 at 5:44 pm

#62 Dazed & CONfused

You surely are!

#70 Balmuto on 11.10.22 at 5:52 pm

No one knows what the price of Bitcoin should be. Some say zero, but I don’t believe that the people that say that really believe that. It’s got some value as a means of exchange and this value is recognized globally.

No, it does not have any intrinsic value, but so what. Bitcoin is often compared to tulip bulbs. Actually tulip bulbs have some intrinsic value; you can grow tulips with them. You can’t produce anything with a Bitcoin.

But Bitcoin is a darn sight more efficient means of exchange than a tulip bulb. And, in some ways, it’s more efficient than fiat.

For example, try initiating a wire from your bank account at a Canadian bank to another bank account in another country. Do it in Canadian dollars just to make it more complicated. Enjoy having to come in to your bank branch and fill out forms and sign them in person. Enjoy the hefty fees the bank will charge you for this privilege. Then enjoy waiting for days for the transaction to go through.

Then try moving Bitcoin from one exchange to another. Let’s say the exchanges are in different countries, though that doesn’t really matter. Well if you can copy and paste an alphanumeric code from one website to another – congratulations, you just completed an international transaction in the Bitcoin era.

Of course, there will be some fees applied to the Bitcoin transaction, but they are nothing in comparison to what the banks charge for wires.

Is the penny (Satoshi) starting to drop yet?

#71 Linda on 11.10.22 at 6:00 pm

Interesting post today. I’d actually wondered earlier this week as to current valuations of cryptocurrencies. From the one site I looked at, BitCoin & (its sibling?) wrapped or washed Bitcoin were the only forms that had any substantial value, other than one currency that had the word ‘gold’ as part of its name. The Bits were in the multiple thousands range – $15K or $16K per unit; the ‘gold’ was the next highest of the types displayed, running about $1,600 per unit as I recall. Most of the rest were effectively penny stocks or were displaying what looked to be negative valuations. I’m not sure if that meant the holders would pay you the value shown to take the units off their hands or what, but it didn’t look like the kind of financial asset one would want to possess.

#72 kommykim on 11.10.22 at 6:01 pm

RE: #34 Steve on 11.10.22 at 4:09 pm
Every comment here is equating crypto to bitcoin. They are not the same

=======================================

It’s about the same as saying “Pass me a Kleenex” and then blowing your nose into a Scotties tissue.
At the end of the day, the used Scotties is worth as much as bitcoin err crypto…

#73 Terry on 11.10.22 at 6:10 pm

Great day! Markets up, inflation beginning to cool, warm and sunny in SW-Ontario……poor Alberta & Saskatchewan, had some burgers on the BBQ an hour ago and watched a beautiful sunset with wifey against a warm aqua colored sky.

Life is good!

#74 DON on 11.10.22 at 6:12 pm

#54 The real Kip (Ret) on 11.10.22 at 4:58 pm
In fairness SBF did say he was sorry and, it’s on him so, there’s that.

*********
And at the very least, shaken investors will walk away with a lesson learned…so there’s that also.

ha ha!

#75 After a two year Covid hiatus ... on 11.10.22 at 6:12 pm

glad to see a Remembrance Day ceremony here tomorrow. Should be plenty of snow geese honking from above. Beautiful sight. Hope to see a few remaining vets there … can’t be many left now … forever grateful.

#76 Søren Angst on 11.10.22 at 6:14 pm

#63 Sail Away

Too funny, argh* matey.

———–

*People also ask

How do you spell argh matey?
Argh, matey: A collection of famous pirates.

Do pirates say Arrr or Argh?
Pronounced also as “Yarrr!” and “Arg!”, the word “Arrr!” is traditionally said by pirates when responding “yes” or when expressing excitement.

How do pirates say Hello?
Ahoy – A pirate greeting or a way to get someone’s attention, similar to “Hello” or “hey!”. Arrr, Arrgh, Yarr, Gar – Pirates slang used to emphasize a point.

– Thank you Google.

#77 Reality is stark on 11.10.22 at 6:15 pm

Poor John Tory falling short on revenue.
Looks like a massive property tax increase coming.
Gee, I wonder who predicted that a couple years ago?
Pull out your wallets.
There are a lot of city workers earning $100,000 and more and you owe them.
Pay up.

#78 Sail Away on 11.10.22 at 6:15 pm

#44 Faron on 11.10.22 at 4:28 pm

Human rights are fundamental and governed by ethics.

——–

I see that opinion and raise you:

Human rights exist only when an authority with jurisdiction stipulates these rights and has both the capacity and willingness to enforce compliance.

Ethics are an attempt to both explain and codify humans’ instinctual cooperative behaviour.

Both rights and ethical behaviours help create a functioning cooperative society. Enforcement prevents other instinctive behaviours such as tribalism and war-making from overwhelming society.

A right is only a right when declared so by the authority. Abortion in the US does not currently fall into this category.

#79 Søren Angst on 11.10.22 at 6:17 pm

#66 CJohnC

Killing myself laughing.

THAT was good comedic talent, I’ll say.

#80 Why The Parallel Reality? on 11.10.22 at 6:19 pm

#42 Nonplused on 11.10.22 at 4:22 pm

Ignoring the concerns of the Russians will be about as successful as ignoring certain voting demographics. I don’t think I am “defending Putin”, so much as pointing out that them there disgusting evil cretin Russians have concerns too. Even the “Ukrainian” ones. They want to be able to send their kids to school without being shelled. And Moscow doesn’t want short range nuclear missiles in Ukraine. Not totally unreasonable positions.

=======================================

Hang on a dang moment. Nowhere did I use anything resembling the phrase “disgusting evil cretin Russians”. I have many Russian friends and colleagues whom I feel both affection and respect for.

I distinctly referred to one specific individual: Vladimir Putin. Don’t twist my words to try and distort the narrative. A common tactic.

With that out of the way, your attempt to portray Vlad as a scared victim, shivering with fear so just had no choice but to amass hundreds of thousands of troops to invade a neighbouring country, is pathetic.

I must have missed the news of Russian school kids being shelled prior to the war?

What a pantload. You just continue to shed any credibility or respect you might once have held. Fine to play devil’s advocate, but at some point you do have to own the fact that your client is uhhh…the devil.

Similarly immoral is the using of hypotheticals to rationalize the invasion. The human tragedy of tens if not hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives needlessly lost is not theory but real, and on your buddy Putin.

#81 AM in MN on 11.10.22 at 6:27 pm

#44 Faron on 11.10.22 at 4:28 pm

Of course not. Human rights are fundamental and governed by ethics. Protecting them is done in various parts of the US constitution via amendments and legal precedent. I’ll remind you again that Alito lied to us and promised to uphold precedent including Roe. It’s interesting to note that ethical arguments fall on deaf ears with you. Quite telling actually.

——————————————————

Whose ethics?

The SCOTUS rules on the US Constitution, which draws some reference from the English Bill of Rights of 1689, see the debate of gun rights.

In a democracy, ethical debates are political debates. If you think yours are better than someone else’s, you can make that argument and try to change the laws or the Constitution.

Canada’s Constitution starts with the Preamble that;

“Canada is a Country that is Founded on the Principles of the Rule of Law and the Supremacy of God.”

The God reference is to the God of the Bible, the one true God, the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob.

Thus the foundation of the “ethics” that underlie Canada’s Law is found in the Scriptures. They thus preclude, for instance, ethics based on Sharia Law.

“Thou Shalt not Kill” is still generally applied, although becoming less so, thus the debate over abortion centers on when is an abortion “killing” someone?

Given that the only safe way to do a late term abortion is to induce labour and “terminate” the fetus as it’s coming out, there is some debate. Sometimes it comes out too fast and is a fully alive human being outside of the mother, thus the debate over “terminating” the fully alive baby after the fact.

Some further debate over the ethics of selling the parts of the aborted fetus for medical purposes. If it was never a “person”, why the debate?

Courts need to sort out conflicting rights all the time. The rights to Private Property or to Private Contract are always limited by Governments and Courts. For instance, you do not have a Private Property Right to own another human being.

Don’t even get started on the property rights you might have to your house, which sits on land that is acknowledged before every public gathering to belong to natives.

#82 Søren Angst on 11.10.22 at 6:29 pm

#67 IHCTD9

Here, let me Zen it for you:

1. amygdala hijack

2. frontal lobe disintermediation

—————

People also ask

What happens during an amygdala hijack?

Amygdala hijack refers to the situations where the amygdala overrides control of a person’s ability to respond rationally to a perceived threat – the logical brain gets impaired due to emotional outbursts caused by the amygdala

What are the 5 functions of the frontal lobe?

As a whole, the frontal lobe is responsible for higher cognitive functions such as memory, emotions, impulse control, problem solving, social interaction, and motor function. *

What age does frontal lobe fully develop?

25 years
The development and maturation of the prefrontal cortex occurs primarily during adolescence and is fully accomplished at the age of 25 years

– Thank you Google

* Why Teens and early 20 yr olds pay a WHACK of cash for car insurance & do bat$h!t crazy stuff.

—————–

#66 CJohnC
Sore Angst

Do look up the definition of Angst and then ponder what you stitched along with that word.

FAIL on the juxtaposition, but the rest v. funny.

#83 Johnny Canuck on 11.10.22 at 6:35 pm

Take notice with all the high-priced job layoffs in the tech sector, to the tune of 84,000 people.
Elon Musk is the first one to have the watermelons to order a 100% office return after a 50% staff firing of the complainers and non-producers to be the first through the doors.

***************!!!!!!!****************
Imagine that … 50% of the employees (around 5500 people with mortgages, dependents, etc) at Twitter were deemed surplus to requirements as soon as Elon walked thru the door. I mean, what a genius he is to have seen what the previous management failed to realize.

Can you imagine keeping all that deadwood employed over the last 16 years or so? No wonder they sold it to the Boy-Child.

As a manager in the manufacturing world, I’ve supervised up to 400 people at a time. Sure, there were a few duds, but not 50%. More like 5%, if that. I’ve also laid off people in groups of 40 or so. Not because they were incompetent or lazy or dishonest, but due to the shop closing down. No fault of theirs. If anything the fault lay with management.

And Elon is in management.

#84 ogdoad on 11.10.22 at 6:38 pm

Back to Julie and Jason:

Julie: Jay, whatever happened to your bitcoin?

Jason: Tanked…our 1k is now 200$

Julie: didn’t you say that B was going to help us with our mortgage payments – that just went up another 200$ per month – btw.

Jason: Damn this crap. Sucks! I knew I should have became a Doctor in something. I hear they make good money….if I was really smart i would have become a scientist, or dentist, or one of those people who give other people drugs before an operation…Eulogist, or whatever…?

Julie: Ya, you should! Have you wrapped up the tesla yet? Supposed to rain tonight.

Jason: FML! I just started season two of Duped Life…It’ll be fine. Maybe Noah could do it?

Julie: Nope, playing Fortnight with his buddies.

Jason: Emma?

Julie: screen time

Jason: Uuuuuugg….

:):):):):)

Og

#85 pBrasseur on 11.10.22 at 6:47 pm

FTX not the only crappy investment from Teachers, check out this beauty:

https://www.canadaguaranty.ca/about-us/

Canada Guaranty’s Maple Leaf Advantage provides new immigrants, who have limited documented credit history, the opportunity to purchase a home with as little as 5% down.

Yeah no doubt great place to invest your pension money…

#86 Fasa on 11.10.22 at 6:52 pm

Crazy stuff going on these days in the market, we get 7.7% inflation in the US today and everyone is happy and the markets take off??

I feel the rate hikes are already priced into the market, the next phase of risk to manage is liquidity and over extended positions.

Winter is coming my friends – higher oil prices are on the way.

#87 Victor Llearna on 11.10.22 at 7:18 pm

Sheep that invested in crypto have definitely learna their lesson. or maybe not, some stupid sheep still buying it up, its back to 16,500 now

#88 Regjeg on 11.10.22 at 7:21 pm

When you have a tiny stake in ‘em, the volatile “sin” stocks are pure fun to watch on a day like today.

ETHX.B +12.83%
WEED + 17.01%

Kinda makes up for those days when they plunge by the same %’s.

#89 Observer on 11.10.22 at 7:32 pm

#78 Sail Away on 11.10.22 at 6:15 pm

A right is only a right when declared so by the authority.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Spoken like a true sociopath. Like the majority of your commentary at this blog.

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.10.22 at 7:36 pm

#53 Dr V on 11.10.22 at 4:58 pm
17 Alex

“Looks like Tiff will have an excuse to stop the rate hikes.”
——————————————————–

Inflation is still waaaay above target, and the recent increases have not adversely affected financial markets.

I think this gives Tiff a good reason keep the increases going.
———————–
Well, maybe he does not want to overcook the turkey.
x-mas is coming.
The top spending time of the year.
Wait and see until after?

#91 Alina on 11.10.22 at 7:37 pm

Steve, why is it that assumption is that everyone must have money in markets. Like Pina, we just are great savers and we were doing just fine at 2.75% to 3% 5 to 7 year GIC rates for years but with rates near 5% it is even easier. We are both 42 and already saved $350,000, no more pesky mortgage, car payments finally this year.

Our main goals to remain debt free and continue saving $3,000 a month mostly in our RRSP, TFSA. We are achieving that and interest on top of that will push us more ahead. Our $1.5 million mark is within 15 years.

#92 Tales from the Crypto on 11.10.22 at 7:43 pm

Hmmm…Crypto.

I wonder if there is any drug money being laundered through it?

I wonder if certain countries just pumped some huge sums to underpin these proof of past computation work useful to no one at all and not relevant to the world.

Actually, I wonder if the tech industry created this to sell hardware?

Or did the CIA invent it to get data on all the characters?

#93 Regjeg on 11.10.22 at 7:52 pm

MW: Curb your enthusiasm! Today’s explosive rally in stocks likely means the bear market is alive and well.

#94 Tyson on 11.10.22 at 7:54 pm

I don’t see how stock markets, real estate markets and any other markets can be a good substitute for discipline and savings. Governments and central banks has done a big disservice to Canadians by massively inflating the cost of living, taxes, inflation, real estate housing prices and cutting interest rates to ridiculous lows to try to misdirect savers, depositors and other Canadians. A Toronto based mortgage fund today closed so no money can’t come out of it is one of many examples of what I am pointing to.

#95 Peter in AB on 11.10.22 at 7:59 pm

The fund managers made the mistake of getting exposure to crypto via some unregulated, shady, centralized middle man whose business is registered in Antigua and Barbuda, and who was gambling with his customer’s deposits (isn’t it always that way)?

Instead, they could have simply purchased Bitcoin directly via spot markets or from an OTC broker, and held it, DIRECTLY. And their purchase of say 1,000 BTC would today still be worth exactly 1,000 BTC and fully under their control, instead of now waiting for a bankruptcy court to try and recover 10-20% in 2 years if they’re lucky.

Amateur mistakes, and novices with money get creamed in this business. These “professionals” managing these pension funds need to see jail time and have their 7-figure pensions stripped.

#96 Sail Away on 11.10.22 at 8:03 pm

#89 Observer on 11.10.22 at 7:32 pm
#78 Sail Away on 11.10.22 at 6:15 pm

A right is only a right when declared so by the authority.

——–

Spoken like a true sociopath. Like the majority of your commentary at this blog.

——–

Why the namecalling? If all you want to do is yell at someone, you can just open the door and start swearing.

Alternatively, we could have an intelligent and respectful discussion. What, exactly, about my statement do you refute? Explain to me a ‘fundamental human right’ that is, and has been for all human history, globally acknowledged and protected. Bonus points if this fundamental human right was contrary to the dictates of the authority in control.

Good luck.

#97 Earlybird on 11.10.22 at 8:10 pm

#19 NonPlused
You are absolutely correct…..having rights over my body is #1 above everything else….I am of the demographic you speak of and vote with that in mind.

Crypto represents loss of faith in our money system…cheap money for too long, figment of someones technological imagination…it is a symptom of this and does not belong in pension fund.

#98 TalkingPie on 11.10.22 at 8:17 pm

#91 Alina on 11.10.22 at 7:37 pm
Steve, why is it that assumption is that everyone must have money in markets. Like Pina, we just are great savers and we were doing just fine at 2.75% to 3% 5 to 7 year GIC rates for years but with rates near 5% it is even easier. We are both 42 and already saved $350,000, no more pesky mortgage, car payments finally this year.

Our main goals to remain debt free and continue saving $3,000 a month mostly in our RRSP, TFSA. We are achieving that and interest on top of that will push us more ahead. Our $1.5 million mark is within 15 years.
********************************************

That’s some impressive saving, no question about it, but I think your math needs some serious work.

GICs are near 5% because inflation is near 8%, ie: your savings are worth 3% less every year. Inflation is going to come down, sure, but then so will the GIC rates, so your situation doesn’t really change.

Your $1.5 million dollar goal in today’s money is going to be worth a whole lot less in the 15 years that you’ll need in order to reach it. If we assume long term average inflation of 2%, your $1.5 million will buy in 15 years what 1.1 will buy today. How long do you plan on living on that $1.1 million, whose purchasing power decreases every year? Unless your answer is from 57 to 80 you want to live off of the equivalent of well under $40,000/year in 2022 dollars, you’re going to have some issues.

“No more mortgage.” That’s great. Greater still would’ve been making an 8% return on that money in a diversified portfolio while paying 3% interest to the bank.

Compound interest is a powerful thing over time and your plan has it working backwards against you. That’s going to start hurting pretty quickly if/when you no longer have an income with which you can save.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.10.22 at 8:26 pm

#81 AM FM

Thus the foundation of the “ethics” that underlie Canada’s Law is found in the Scriptures. They thus preclude, for instance, ethics based on Sharia Law.
————————-
Curios that you cite Sharia Law.
How about Civil Law?

#100 Dr V on 11.10.22 at 8:32 pm

90 Ponz – straight from Tiff

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tff-macklem-interview-1.6647808

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.10.22 at 8:37 pm

My daughter just returned from a day trip to Belingham (Washington).
Long line up going in.
Every car was checked.
No reason given.
Could they be looking for a hammer?
Since 9\11 American border controls have never been like before.

#102 Billy Bob on 11.10.22 at 8:44 pm

DELETED

#103 Cash is King on 11.10.22 at 8:44 pm

WHAT THE HELL WERE THEY THINKING?
MY SHINY TRINKETS ARE WORTH MONEY……
ARE YOU FN KIDDING ME?

#104 Ustabe on 11.10.22 at 9:06 pm

Twitter’s CISO, its Chief Privacy Office and its Chief Compliance officer all resigned the late afternoon of November 10.

According to an employee who spoke on condition of anonymity, this now leaves engineers (those who didn’t get laid off) to “Self Certify” that what they are doing is in compliance with FTC, etc.

This should end well.

Also Elon just mass emailed the remaining employees, the media reporting breathlessly on his dictum to return to the office. What the media fails to report is he also said in this email that things are not going well and bankruptcy is not out of the question.

The latest Twitter parody meme is simply a head shot of Elon alongside a picture of a head of lettuce. You can’t make this stuff up.

I use Twitter for instant hockey news but recently it is hard to ignore the rest of it.

#105 Faron on 11.10.22 at 9:11 pm

#50 Søren Angst on 11.10.22 at 4:49 pm

Look up the defn of core inflation there Mr. Lava Tubes.

#106 Steve on 11.10.22 at 9:25 pm

Alina,

Inflation. It compounds too. When you buy a GIC you are guaranteeing that lose purchasing power. There’s a reason the banks give you such “good” rates.

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.10.22 at 9:43 pm

Morals and ethics, and all that jazz.
Both mean the same. One is Roman, the other Greek.
If you believe in any God, than it’s easy.
Just follow the scriptures, commandments whatever that governs your faith.
If not you got to pick a philosopher you like.
Mine is Kant, and not just because he is/was German.
Lots to pick from.
And remember, Adam Smith and Marx are/were Philosophers, too.
Now start Googling.

#108 Phylis on 11.10.22 at 9:49 pm

#92 Tales from the Crypto on 11.10.22 at 7:43 pm
Xxxxx
The gumshoes use to say follow the money. So yes, follow the wallets. On a public ledger. Qed.

#109 Steve on 11.10.22 at 9:51 pm

Alina,

Inflation compounds too. Your GIC is guaranteed to lose purchasing power. The bank sells you a GIC at 4.5% takes your money and then invests it and leverages it to get 8%. It’s not right that you have to risk your savings to beat inflation, but thats what happens when people can vote for ‘free’ stuff from the government. I would recommend hiring a fee based advisor like Garth if you only feel comfortable investing in GICs. The 1% you’d pay him would be worth it, rather than a guaranteed lose from GICs

#110 Ride Sally Ride on 11.10.22 at 9:52 pm

The next big losses will be in the Trudeau governments huge , multibillion dollar ‘investment’ in the hydrogen space. Like crypto, there are giant financial and regulatory holes in hydrogen development. If you thought crypto was out there, you’ll eventually be shocked by the fact that hydrogen development is even further out doe to the fact that the technology to produce , store and transport commercially hasn’t been invented yet. When the German Chancellor came to Canada asking for LNG and was offered futuristic non existent windmill powered hydrogen the professional world guffawed as it’s a joke. But there are many experiments going on financed by Trudeau Libs that will come to nothing and great gobs of money will be flushed. Ballard has been trying for over twenty five year, seriously trying, still nothing, a money pit. Meanwhile did you know that RBC was given $380 billion to finance and oil and gas pipeline and production facility in East Africa? But nothing for Alberta or the ROC? Strange days.

#111 Mr Fox on 11.10.22 at 9:58 pm

I remember talking to some of my frienda back in 2017, telling them that “money backed by nothing has zero value”. They on their hand said that “the us dollar and all the other currencies is fiat money and worse than crypto because the central banks can always print more”. Explaining them how a currency is backed up by a country’s economy, and what’s inflation vs deflation, and how this balance is hard to keep, didn’t succed much, they wouldn’t budge…
Fast forwarding Feb 2022, they were trully shocked seeing that crypto behave like some of the most volatile stocks: going up and down together with the market… I was asking them “how come? Shouldn’t crypto be a safe heaven from inflation?”, No answers followed.
When you invest in crypto at 25k and see it go up at 65k you feel like a genius. But when it drops to 17k… well, you get more experienced lol.
When a man with experience meets a man with money, the first leaves with the money and the second with experience.

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.10.22 at 10:04 pm

@#101 Ponzies Political Pelosi Pals.
“My daughter just returned from a day trip to Belingham (Washington).
Long line up going in.
Every car was checked.
No reason given.

++++
They don’t want illegal hammers being smuggled in…

#113 Steve on 11.10.22 at 10:05 pm

Blog dogs. Legitimate question, and I’m not trolling. How many of you have read at least one book about Bitcoin, have spent at least 100 hours studying the technology, and have spent 100 hours listening to podcasts from legitimate supporters of Bitcoin? There’s a lot of noise and a lot of scams, but there are a lot of plebs that are willing to teach.

If you’ve done your research and still believe it’s a scam, that’s fine. However, if you are simply regurgitating your Apple news feeds, Bloomberg feed, or notifications from the financial times, I don’t believe you have a leg to stand on.

If you want to learn, let me know. I can provide a number of books that you could read as a starting point. I just think you are doing a disservice to your kids if you don’t get off of 0.

Ps I’ve been a follower of Garth’s for 13 years, and I believe in his ethos. I’ve got many types of assets and Bitcoin is one of them.

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.10.22 at 10:07 pm

@#107 Philosophical Ponzie
“Mine is Kant, and not just because he is/was German.”

+++
Marcus Aurelius…
Meditations.

#115 Tony on 11.10.22 at 10:08 pm

Re: #9 B on 11.10.22 at 3:14 pm

Their holdings always left a lot to be desired in my opinion all the way back to inception.

#116 Rick on 11.10.22 at 10:23 pm

“Ontario Teachers Pension Fund invested an estimated $200 million of their members’ retirement money in the new money ie. crypto”

And they lost it? Oh the humanity! Does this mean that the average lazy, greedy teacher won’t be able to retire at 50 years of age, but will have to work until they are at least 55? Life can be so cruel.

#117 Sail Away on 11.10.22 at 10:27 pm

#104 Ustabe on 11.10.22 at 9:06 pm

Also Elon just mass emailed the remaining employees, the media reporting breathlessly on his dictum to return to the office. What the media fails to report is he also said in this email that things are not going well and bankruptcy is not out of the question.

The latest Twitter parody meme is simply a head shot of Elon alongside a picture of a head of lettuce. You can’t make this stuff up.

I use Twitter for instant hockey news but recently it is hard to ignore the rest of it.

—————

$44B here, $44B there, pretty soon you’re talking real money.

Trust in Elon, U, and all will be well. Find a private place, here’s how we speak to Him: Eeeeelllonnnn…. Eeeeeelllonnnn….

#118 Summertime on 11.10.22 at 10:31 pm

CPI of 7.7 %, real inflation of necessities aka cost of living double that and rates at 4 %….

Strongly negative real rates of 3.4-10 % depending on how you measure it.

And they call that fighting inflation/i.e. inflation is cold.

It is still superhot IMHO and will stay there for a while.

————————–

Does the statement that a global stable digital currency will replace national currencies imply that national currencies are somehow unstable?

—————————-

Who will trust the same people that caused the current inflation and credit mess to continue to manage the world money?

———————–

Poor crypto suckers should have converted crypto into credit driven currencies, i.e. give loans in crypto in order to create demand.

It is amazing how the current financial system ‘works’.

The more credit you create, the higher demand and valuations and the higher total ‘wealth’.
Until it does not work anymore and inflation wipes you out.

Kind of happening in fast motion right now. And accelerating.

#119 Tony on 11.10.22 at 10:46 pm

Re: #87 Victor Llearna on 11.10.22 at 7:18 pm

It could still have a big runup especially in 2024.

#120 Tony on 11.10.22 at 10:53 pm

Re: #93 Regjeg on 11.10.22 at 7:52 pm

There would have been yearend profit taking by the short sellers of stocks and stock indexes in November anyway. The bias was already heavy to the upside for November.

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.10.22 at 11:17 pm

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.10.22 at 10:07 pm
@#107 Philosophical Ponzie
“Mine is Kant, and not just because he is/was German.”

+++
Marcus Aurelius…
Meditations.
———————
Wasn’t he the guy who dissed Garth a while ago ?

#122 Robert Ash on 11.10.22 at 11:28 pm

Many parts of the World are becoming geographical areas that are not attractive to invest. China as an example. Who would invest in a country which can turn on a dime, and limit an entire industry. State Companies evolve to punish the successful companies. China retail investors purchasing Crypto, to avoid Capital Controls, and their Mortgage payments.
North American firms, and Governments, considering Crypto, as future market places, and investing their clients, money to be completely Ghosted.
Regulators, like the SEC, that are too timid to enforce their mandate, and regulate, as it may have negative Political inferences.
Canadian Politicians, like Alberta’s Treasury Minister citing Crypto, as a future strategy, along with Pierre P. Trudeau on Media Ads, for purchasing Crypto as a method of a Fractional investment thesis. All nonsense!
Central Banks, using our years of Savings, as a medium to foment Political Favorites, and re distribute Wealth, while accomplishing nothing on their own, in terms of managing a Transparent and Fair Investment marketplace, and ensuring equity to all investment sectors. I could go on… the examples are too many.
We have to stop these people, and soon. Donald Trump with his hands on the Fed Rate Scale, to further encourage Negative interest rates.
What happened to thoughtful analysis, and fundamental analysis. BNN .. the closest reference to the importance of analytical tools, is a vague reference to a clean Balance Sheet. No discussion of new product innovation, or R&D, market share improvement, or great Management appointments, and expertise.
I personally have limited my own investments, for these reasons and certainly to exacerbate, my long term poor performance, but at least I can sleep at night.
Our Financial Services industries, in my opinion, should take a more active role, in criticizing our Financial Institutions. We have ex Governor’s of the Bank of Canada, Carney espousing limiting our Energy Independence, yet isn’t he as an expert, finance guy, unaware of the Implications, of an Energy supply crisis, causing rampant Inflation. He is acting like a fool. Completely misguided. I know that as I remember the 1970’s Energy crisis. Why doesn’t Carney? Look at the impact of Freezing in the Dark, in Europe. How do Farmers cope in Canada, with potential for rationing Diesel.
Two of our Energy Ministers, one with a Degree in Theology, the other a Degree in Philosophy.
Come on Canada, we have to do a complete shakeup and change all our elected MP’s and Representatives. This is patently unfair to all our reasonable performers, but it may be the only ” Hail Mary” pass left in our playbook.

#123 CJohnC on 11.10.22 at 11:39 pm

#82 Soren Angst

Sorry, no it was a simple typo or maybe autocorrect that I missed. I only noticed it after sending.

#124 @J on 11.10.22 at 11:58 pm

#113 Steve on 11.10.22 at 10:05 pm
Blog dogs. Legitimate question, and I’m not trolling. How many of you have read at least one book about Bitcoin, have spent at least 100 hours studying the technology
——————————

Dr. Weaver, a computer scientist who has studied cryptocurrency for years, says it should “die in a fire”.

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/05/why-this-computer-scientist-says-all-cryptocurrency-should-die-in-a-fire

#125 Tom from Mississauga on 11.11.22 at 12:05 am

Whither it’s crypto, Trump, Canada’s Covid mandates, the European green transition, Putin “liberating” Ukraine or Chinese zero Covid. People really need to stop believing their own propaganda.

#126 april on 11.11.22 at 12:53 am

#35 – You obviously don’t know who Garth is.

#127 the Jaguar on 11.11.22 at 1:48 am

“But crypto in its current form has proven to be a casino, over and again” -GT

I’ve never understood the attraction of betting on chance when it’s so much more interesting to bet on yourself. Of course it requires some courage and genuine human capital. Was it really Billy Bob Garth? (102)

#128 Allan on 11.11.22 at 2:34 am

Investing in crypto is still wiser, in my opinion, than buying millions of injection doses, that after expiry date have to be utilized.

#129 DC on 11.11.22 at 5:06 am

“Ontario Teachers Pension Fund invested an estimated $200 million of their members’ retirement money in the new money ie. crypto”

And they lost it? Oh the humanity! Does this mean that the average lazy, greedy teacher won’t be able to retire at 50 years of age, but will have to work until they are at least 55? Life can be so cruel.

—————————————

The ‘average’ teacher is lazy, greedy and able to retire at 50. Wow.

DC

#130 Prince Polo on 11.11.22 at 6:35 am

#46 Søren Angst on 11.10.22 at 4:30 pm
#6 Prince Polo

You. Me. Everybody vested.

Ya, it was nice to see a +1200 pt DOW day. Getting old, want to savour every last minute and second that started in October just before Halloween (like I said it would…yeah me?). My stuff up +0.34% to +7%, not a -‘ve in sight. Very happy.

AND IT WOULD HAVE BEEN HIGHER IF SOMEONE HAD PUT A BIG CAT PHOTO UP TODAY.

Just sayin’.

LOL! Maybe we’ll get one today (so another green rocket ride on the markets?)

#131 Theory of Everything on 11.11.22 at 8:40 am

TurnerNation, damn you!

Another one you predicted correctly.

They were/are feeding us insects already.

…and we didn’t know it.

…and apparently we liked it just fine!

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/tim-hortons-brand-soup-base-recalled-for-containing-insects

#132 IHCTD9 on 11.11.22 at 9:14 am

Nice big jump in the B+D yesterday.

The yard is getting less yellow, and not because the leaves are blowing away.

Many changes have taken place and are in the works to offset inflation with good results so far.

Lots of good news. Alas, our last ever CCB handout comes this month. I’m going to miss all that tax-free cash – 10’s of thousands worth. Unfortunately, the time has finally come where I have to use my own cash to buy new toys.

At least we’ve only got 3 more years of paying two Universities come spring (maybe).

#133 Observer on 11.11.22 at 9:36 am

#132 IHCTD9 on 11.11.22 at 9:14 am
. I’m going to miss all that tax-free cash – 10’s of thousands worth. Unfortunately, the time has finally come where I have to use my own cash to buy new toys.

^^^^^^^^^^^

10’s of thousands per year?

CCB is income based. By the time you hit 100K or so family income, you don’t get a lot per child per year.

Do you have an under the table business or are you low income?

#134 Observer on 11.11.22 at 9:38 am

#132 IHCTD9 on 11.11.22 at 9:14 am

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Or have you been a good Christian and not used birth control? More kids = more CCB

Curious minds want to know.

#135 BABY'S BUM on 11.11.22 at 9:51 am

Just like the DOTCOM bubble in the stock market 2 decades ago what emerged from that were the mighty tech companies today (now some of the largest companies on the planet).

Were not sure yet what 2 decades out will look like for blockchain technology and crypto but your going to be damn pissed if you could have picked up the next Amazon or Google for a few bucks a share.

Dont spend what your not willing to lose but dont give up a possibility of wealth and freedom for the keepsake of a few fiat dollars that will be worth alot less 2 decades from now anyways.

#136 schoolie on 11.11.22 at 9:59 am

Love how everyone needs to mention, as just a side note of course, how one of the grandest pension plans in the land got swept up in all this. Of course this is done with a certain smugness and chagrin held only by those cold, timid souls who dare not step into the trenches of Ontario’s classrooms and yet begrudge us educators our well earned pensions. Yes, the pension envy is real my friends….as for my part, I’ll continue to just walk quietly and carry my big dick, err, well, you know what I mean.

#137 Dharma Bum on 11.11.22 at 10:01 am

Ponzi is right.
Lots of philosophers to learn from.
Marcus Aurelius
Epictetus
Seneca
Lao Tzu
Ghangzou
Alan Watts
And my personal favourite:
Joe Rogan

#138 epic bear on 11.11.22 at 10:12 am

#8 Steve on 11.10.22 at 3:14 pm

Are you 100% sure Bitcoin is a bad investment? If not, then as a proper risk manager, and the asymmetrical opportunity it presents, BTC deserves a place in everyone’s portfolio.
________________________________

bitcoin, and all crypto currencies are worth exactly $0 Michael Saylor will bankrupt his company as he continues to Hodl his worthless bitcoins.

Nayib Bukele will have essentially destroyed El Salvadors economy, and will find himself on the chopping block sooner than later.

as this meltdown continues, and bitcoin heads down to
much lower levels, people will slowly come to the realization that this was nothing more than another tulip mania. nothing changes.

#139 millmech on 11.11.22 at 10:53 am

Garth
You are correct that it is gambling, much like my fellow Canadians who throw $900k (borrowed) at a bug infested box hoping that it doubles in the time span of a LEAPS contract, how is this not rank gambling as well? At least with buying calls and puts the only risk is the contract premium which are known and can be mitigated with a click of a mouse.
I always enjoy the knowledge that is eloquently presented here, and your feedback is greatly appreciated.

#140 Is anybody listening? on 11.11.22 at 11:13 am

FOUR HUNDRED private jets arrived in Egypt during COP27 as climate delegates are accused of ‘hypocrisy’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11416209/FOUR-private-jets-arrived-Egypt-COP27-climate-delegates-accused-hypocrisy.html

#141 Doing my Part on 11.11.22 at 11:20 am

Bitcoin, going to zero, get out while you can.

#142 IHCTD9 on 11.11.22 at 11:31 am

#133 Observer on 11.11.22 at 9:36 am
#132 IHCTD9 on 11.11.22 at 9:14 am
. I’m going to miss all that tax-free cash – 10’s of thousands worth. Unfortunately, the time has finally come where I have to use my own cash to buy new toys.

^^^^^^^^^^^

“10’s of thousands per year?”

Right, I have 47 kids and work at Walmart. C’mon bro…

“CCB is income based. By the time you hit 100K or so family income, you don’t get a lot per child per year.”

CCB is based on *NET* income.

Don’t hate the playa homie, hate the game.

#143 JDAWG68 on 11.11.22 at 11:36 am

Sounds like its time we had a fully regulated exchange for digital assets. Maybe one that is fully FINRA compliant? One that is also SIPC compliant? One that no one has heard of…well you will soon. tZERO.

#144 ERKSTVS on 11.11.22 at 11:39 am

For the fellow nerds out there, this sounded awfully close to the creation and gifting of the Rings of Power by Sauron, with the promise of glory and success.

Yikes.

#145 Steve on 11.11.22 at 12:39 pm

#124 @J
#138 epic bear

You didn’t answer my question.

You’re both 100% sure? Get off of 0 and please learn how to manage risk.

For your kids.

#146 Meh on 11.11.22 at 1:20 pm

Inflation compounded a cooked 7.7 percent over a cooked 7 percent in 2021 from 2020. Horrifying taken at face value. In reality about 18 percent compounded each year since October 2020. Stocks to the moon!

Mr Market is so smart.

https://www.google.com/search?q=homer+simpson+i+am+so+smart&oq=homer+simpson+I+am+s&aqs=chrome.0.0i512l2j69i57j0i512l2j0i22i30l3j0i10i22i30.16494j1j7&client=ms-android-bell-ca-revc&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:53071fd9,vid:wv4eTE0aUiQ

#147 Don on 11.12.22 at 3:16 pm

The moral: assets made out of nothing have a tendency to return to that state.”

What do you think of the US Dollar? Will it return to pulp?

#148 822 on 11.13.22 at 3:35 am

Appreciate the recommendation. Leet me tryy iit out.