The blowout

In February, pre-Putin, pre-Tiff, post-Covid, when RBC mortgages were 2.7% and we still had a Queen, a detached house in 416 topped two mill. The average sale price, precisely, was $2,073,986. Today that property can be yours for (only) $1,609,077.

In other words, Frank Fomo and his squeeze, Lusty, paid $464,909 more than if they’d read a certain pathetic blog and waited for peak house to pass. The drop: 22.4%. So far. There’s more coming.

On Friday the Canadian economy shocked everyone with employment stats showing 108,000 new hires last month. That was almost half the job gains for the entire USA – which has more than ten times the population. And the American nonfarm payroll advance of 261,000 was considered ‘hot.’ In other words, seriously higher interest rates in both countries have yet to do much to slow down the juggernaut.

Said my trader bud Ed Pennock: “Hotter than expected. That’s going to be enough to keep Powell raising rates. Maybe even another 75 bps. Watch the 10-year Treasury. At 4.7% we are back at 2007 levels.”

Yup. Bond yields and mortgage rates are back to ’07 levels. But then – before the Credit Crisis crushed the cost of money – our inflation rate was a puny 2.1%. Today it hovers near 7%. So the central bank, in the wake of the latest employment report, is not backing down soon.

Says the economics brain trust at TD:

Wow. This jobs report checked all the boxes in terms of being a blowout report. Headline job growth surged, and gains were powered by full-time, private sector positions. In addition, hours worked surged, and wage growth accelerated. The unemployment rate was unchanged, but this was due to many more Canadians looking for work – a healthy sign for growth. Notably, bond yields and the dollar are up in the wake of the report. This report also justifies the Bank’s stance that more needs to be done on the rates front, and our current forecast anticipates an additional 50 bps of tightening by the end of the year.

Okay, so another half-point on December 7th. That will take the chartered bank prime to just under 6.5%. Five year mortgages will likely sit at 6%, HELOCs at 7% and VRMs will have travelled from as little as 1.5% to 5.5% in the space of ten months. The stress test could hover near 8%.

Remember the inverse relationship between rates and house prices? Sure ya do. It’s the No.1 determinant of demand, which influences prices. This week we learned that the level of sales (demand) is down more than 40% on a monthly basis in the GTA and Lower Mainland. We also discovered there are over 95,000 condo units under construction in Toronto (supply) as well as current listings of 13,023 in Toronto (up 68% year/year) and 9,852 in Vancouver (up 22%).

The conclusions: (a) there is no shortage of properties available for people to buy. (b) There’s actually no housing crisis, either. Just an affordability one. (c) Real estate will get even less expensive in the GTA and way, way cheaper in places like Richmond, Burnaby, Victoria and North Van. (d) The longer buyers wait, the more they will save.

And what about recession?

Even Chrystia is talking downturn. She did that Thursday while spending $30 billion more and bringing in a brain-dead tax on corporate share buybacks. But given the strength of the job market in Canada and the US or the relative robustness of corporate profits in the current earnings season it’s hard to see a miserable early-1990s-style drubbing on the horizon. More likely we’ll see a couple of quarters of mildly negative growth while the CBs finish their giddy job of removing stimulus. After than, growth trickles back.

So the forecast has not changed.

Another full 1% or so is coming for the Bank of Canada. Then a pause. No cuts. Not even a hint of a reduction in 2023, or 2024 either. While mortgages stay north of 5%, house prices will be under pressure. We’ll be scraping bottom some time next year. Not for a generation (or longer) will home loans again be 2%. It will take a new mess to bring them back.

Will the seeds of that be planted on Tuesday night?

About the picture: “Frogs and dogs be damned!” writes Leslie, objecting to recent beastly blog photos. “Here’s our sassy Red-Factor Sun Conure, Ruby.  She’s checking out my lovely chicken ornament.  She can talk up a storm and dance like nobody’s watching!  It was great spending the lockdown with my best girlfriend. Enjoy the blog, as well as the comments from fellow readers.  It should be interesting in the next few months, perhaps we will all be wearing Ruby’s sideways glance!”

122 comments ↓

#1 Canadian Soldier on 11.04.22 at 2:19 pm

Happy Friday Sir!

#2 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 2:27 pm

Even Chrystia is talking downturn. She did that Thursday while spending $30 billion more and bringing in a brain-dead tax on corporate share buybacks.

——–

Yep. Idiotic idea.

Buffett says that when properly timed, share buybacks are one of the most beneficial uses of a corporation’s funds.

What’s next? Taxing retail investors’ stock purchases?

Now Canadian corps have yet another reason to relocate to the US.

#3 alexinvestor on 11.04.22 at 2:28 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-october-1.6640437

Wages are up 5.6%. From the article – “Two-thirds of people making $40 an hour reported getting a raise in the past year. That compares with about half of those making $20 or under.” … but yet “More than a third of households reported “difficulty meeting financial needs” during the month. Two years ago, only one in five said that.”. CBC fails to mention that it’s an inescapable conclusion that these 2 groups of people are probably not the same.

If you didn’t buy over the past 2 years and/or locked-in your mortgage (which is the majority of people), and make 100K+, things are looking pretty good. You are getting big raises, and your fixed mortgage costs are getting inflated away. And who says the Libs don’t like the rich.

#4 SmarterSquirrel on 11.04.22 at 2:30 pm

Garth, for inflation to be reduced, do CBs typically raise interest rates higher than the rate of inflation? I heard an economist mention that in the past, rates have been raised higher than the rate of inflation in order to bring inflation down.

#5 Scott in Gibsons on 11.04.22 at 2:33 pm

Individuals, businesses, governments etc that over borrowed at ultra low interest rates are dead men walking. When the bodies start to drop the collapse will be biblical. The 1% will be made whole by the CB’s. The inflation problem will be rectified by gutting the wealth of the 99%. Same as it ever was.

#6 dave on 11.04.22 at 2:34 pm

Putin would luv to end the Ukraine war and keep his new Russia expansion in his domain.

Unfortunately, USA will never let Ukraine stop this war until Russia retreats or all is lost in Ukraine.

This war will sadly just get hotter and so will Inflation

#7 Buy in USA. Rent in Canada. on 11.04.22 at 2:35 pm

No surprises – Canadians who pickled themselves in debt and bills are toast.
Savers and investors are snapping up cheap deals on everything Stateside.
Enjoy your shitty little condos and old tear down houses you pumped too much money into across Canada. Nobody buys 40+ year old houses that are money pits and renovated by amateurs

#8 Bill zufelt on 11.04.22 at 2:36 pm

Forget about 2007/2008 levels we should be back to 1990 levels. The 2 year treasury was 8.5% then and inflation was 5.6%. Next Thursday the Fed will announce the October inflation rate and mark my word it will be in the 10% range. Stock markets oughta love that. Eventually the peak will hit(maybe 18 months) and stocks will rally(maybe unbelievably so) but not anytime soon in my expert opinion.

#9 chalkie on 11.04.22 at 2:42 pm

With the UK in a recession, Putin getting his butt kicked by the little guy, United States home sales crashing, Mortgage cost rising, OPSEU walking off the job, Trumps Lawyers in a meltdown, General Dollar and Family Dollar stores closing their doors in the US, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos in discrimination trouble, Buffett make a 19-billion-dollar Mistake & Toronto home sales falling 49%, that’s October in a nutshell.

To start November, we have Elon Musk on a firing spree and it is not pretty, Elon even fired his top executives in Canada this morning.
Oh well, we have two for one peanut butter parfaits at Dairy Queen, that’s good news.

There is not much good news, regardless what or where you research, it feels as if the walls are closing in on all of us.

Well, the one piece of good news is, Canada added another 108 New jobs for October, OR was it so good? The Feds have missed the boat by not raising interest rates far enough, that is right, hold onto your hat, you will see at a minimum of 50 basis points added again in December and another 50 in the first quarter of 2023, it must if they are serious about fixing inflation.

The Feds are regretting their slowness in getting the rates higher when the opportunity was there at the beginning with lesser pain for the taxpayers.

Real estate right now, the longer the seller waits to put the home on the market, the more it will cost them, it is a hard pill to swallow, but there is no time like now to get out, if you are serious in what you want to take home after closing costs.

You could be 5 to 8 years out, before the Real Estate picture will be anything to speak about, in terms of higher home values, the sideways trip for the next few years will be painful and regretful.

Quote of the day: Be careful what we wish for. Above all else, the biggest reason to be mindful of what we wish for is that we are prone to believe we will be happier once we acquire what we desire. Social science research has proven that thinking this way is a setup, because the more we get, the more we want.

#10 CL on 11.04.22 at 2:50 pm

They also said no interest rate increases until end of 2023 meaning if they have to drop rates between now and 2024, they will. Grain of salt.

All we hear is there is a shortage of labor, need immigration to satisfy labor demand yet business managed to find over 100k people in a month.

#11 Søren Angst on 11.04.22 at 2:50 pm

In other words, seriously higher interest rates in both countries have yet to do much to slow down the juggernaut.
– Garth

I told you all so. Rates not high enough to beat down high inflation.

History repeats.

—————

“Frank Fomo and his squeeze, Lusty”

Ital-Canadian meets (mates?) tawdry Anglo is how it read to me.

THAT was good. Too funny.

And, they’re both from Trauma. Imagine that?

#12 Jim on 11.04.22 at 2:54 pm

I’m totally against corporate buy backs. If a corporation will not invest in innovation or new products then the additional money should be returned in the form of dividends. Buy backs artificially inflate stock prices so corporate fat cats can hit share price targets for bigger bonuses.

Actually buybacks increase the wealth of all shareholders, just like dividends. – Garth

#13 Felix on 11.04.22 at 2:59 pm

At least this is way better than a dogawful mutt photo.

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

The first year of a cat’s life is roughly equal to the first 15 years of human life. Your cat’s second year is roughly equal to the first 25 of a human’s. After that, your cat tends to develop more slowly and ages about four to five human years every 12 months.

Cats can rotate their ears 180 degrees. While humans have six muscles in both of their outer ears, cats have 32 muscles in each of theirs! These muscles give cats the ability to swivel and rotate their ears to pinpoint the exact source of a noise.

The hearing of the average cat is at least five times stronger than that of a human adult. Cat hearing is extremely sensitive and can hear tones at much higher pitches than humans. This gives them an advantage in nature, as most of their prey, such as rodents or birds, make high-pitched sounds.

#14 Senator Bluto on 11.04.22 at 2:59 pm

It looks like Tuesday night will mark the end of the “Woke Era”. What follows will be anyone’s guess, but a good start would be a world where the rule of law governs and not the monetization of victimhood.

After that, a meritocracy would be nice too. By that I mean I don’t care who you are and where you come from, if you’re the best suited for the job, you should get it.

It’s a sad world where Martin Luther King’s teachings are considered grounds for cancellation.

#15 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 3:01 pm

I take the liberty of repeating my late post from “yesterday” since it is so extremely brilliant and on topic:

Big ESTIMATED Jobs Gains report

Again no one seems to mention that this is a sample, subject to statistical and other errors.

And subject to not being a random sample. The kind of people willing to participate in this survey for the required time (It’s several months I believe) are not necessarily average people. How do they include the homeless for example?

And it is seasonally adjusted which is an imperfect process. We are still emerging from a pandemic so do all the normal seasonal patterns hold or is there a new pandemic emergence pattern layered in?

Other than that it’s a fine survey, a great estimate, the best we have. But it is not gospel. It is not a count. Sheesh, people question vote COUNTING and don’t question a sample?

After several weak reports this one is unusually strong. Does anyone think maybe, just maybe, there is a bit of random noise in there?

Soren Angst, I think you can back me up here.

But I agree with those who say this is bad news for interest rates. Uppa!

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221104/dq221104a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

#16 Søren Angst on 11.04.22 at 3:01 pm

11 – 11 – 11 – 1918

Il grido dei morti. Lest we forget.

Canada
61,000 dead
172,000 wounded
Population: 8 million then.

Italia
651,000 dead
953,886 wounded
Population: 36 million then.

Today is when Remembrance Day (La Festa dell Unità e delle Forze Armate) celebrated in Italia – when the ceasefire that followed the Armistice of Villa Giusti in 1918 began. Wreath laying at the Tomba del Milite Ignoto (The Tomb of the Unknown Soldier) at the Altare della Patria in Rome.

https://twitter.com/Fontana3Lorenzo/status/1588511413282037763

———

In the final battle of VITTORIO VENETO between 24 October to 3 November 1918,

front line then a few km from where I am typing,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Vittorio_Veneto#/media/File:Battle_of_Vittorio_Veneto.jpg

350,000 Austro-Hungarian Empire soldiers surrendered.

37,461 Italian casualties.
2,139 UK casualties.
778 French casualties.
528,000 Austro-Hungarian Empire casualties.

57 Allied divisions (52 Italian, 3 UK, 2 French) vs. 61 Austro-Hungarian Empire divisions.

That battle secured the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and contributed to the end of the First World War just one week later. *

Italia at that point could of walked into Vienna unopposed as conquerors. Instead, she liberated Trento and Trieste and stayed within her present day borders.

———

*

German chief-of-staff Erich Ludendorff, a prominent World War I figure, stressed the importance of the battle, claiming that its outcome prompted the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, “dragging Germany in its fall”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Vittorio_Veneto

My grandfather and many of my great uncles fought in that battle & their stories told to me as a youth. To them and to the brave Cdn soldiers that fought in that conflict …

Eterno riposo.
Operi latura vetustas heroum.

#17 Søren Angst on 11.04.22 at 3:04 pm

#3 Felix

And did you know …

Cats killing billions of animals in the US

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-21236690

#18 Søren Angst on 11.04.22 at 3:08 pm

Actually buybacks increase the wealth of all shareholders, just like dividends. – Garth

Thank you.

How many times today on Twitter I tried explaining that to the Socialists.

Box of Rocks. Sack of Hammers. The lot of them.

#19 Calgary on 11.04.22 at 3:16 pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/flippers-fked-mortgage-rates-more-double-10-months

More than double in 10 months. Will it triple?

#20 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:18 pm

#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 11:42 am

Got my flu and Covid shot.
Did my Civic duty to protect my fellow Citizens and myself.
Did you?
Or will you just keep on whining?

Yep, got mine. Bivalent in the left arm and the flu shot in the right.

#21 Wait There on 11.04.22 at 3:23 pm

Yeah but explain why a semi in Richmond Hill sold at the price at 1.2 mill. Crazy. On the market for less than a month.
Who’s doing the buying. Next door last month another semi closed for the same. These are basic units to boot.

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-hill-real-estate/51-dovetail-drive

Think there was financing for this? Cash I bet.

#22 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 3:23 pm

Shae Buy Backs?

#2 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 2:27 pm

Even Chrystia is talking downturn. She did that Thursday while spending $30 billion more and bringing in a brain-dead tax on corporate share buybacks.

——–

Yep. Idiotic idea.

Buffett says that when properly timed, share buybacks are one of the most beneficial uses of a corporation’s funds.

***********************************

Yes, and remember Rule No. !:

“Always assume that Buffett is correct” (Not 100% but it’s the way to bet)

and Rule No 2:

Don’t forget rule No. 1.

I went to the big Omaha shindig back in 2003. Saw the great man eat a dilly bar and some See’s Candy with my own eyes.

#23 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 3:24 pm

Rule No. Zero: Remember to proofread

#24 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:27 pm

#142 Don on 11.04.22 at 12:31 pm

Freeland is only loyal to the WEF. The enemy of humanity.

You conspiracy nuts are just sad. – Garth

Not just nutty and sad, WEF conspiracies are thinly veiled antisemitism.

#25 XEQT and chill on 11.04.22 at 3:30 pm

Our landlord listed the condo we rent. He told us he has an interest-only mortgage. In order to not take an L, he can’t move the price any lower. There has been a grand total of 2 viewings in the past 9 weeks. No offers. So he is raising the rent, but it won’t take effect for 12 months, and it will merely bring it to market value from below market value. He told me how much he owes on it. I crunched the numbers, he’s basically cash flow neutral, about to go negative if rates go any higher. And with an interest only mortgage, he’s not building any equity. Any maintenance cost that comes up puts him negative.

He said he regrets deciding to be a landlord. He has 2 condos in this building. “You live and you learn,” he said. He’s a really great guy, a solid landlord, but things just didn’t work out the way he hoped. He asked us if we’d want to buy it off him.

No thanks, we said.

#26 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 3:30 pm

Share Buy Backs

Buy backs give money to departing selling and therefore FORMER shareholders. No cash goes to continuing shareowners who don’t sell any.

Whether that increases the share price depends on the market mood and if the shares were bought back at a good price and what it says about the company’s opportunities to invest for growth instead of doing buy backs.

As Buffett told us: It depends. He waited about 53 years before having Berkshire buy back any shares. Because he (Berkshire) had better uses for the cash.

#27 Timmy on 11.04.22 at 3:32 pm

The Housing Market is Worse than you Think

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html

#28 Bob on 11.04.22 at 3:33 pm

There’s actually no housing crisis, either. Just an affordability one.

This strikes me as a distinction without a difference. If large numbers of people can’t afford an adequate place to live, we have a housing crisis. I think you’re too fixated on the market. What about factors like homelessness, overcrowding, and underutilization? On the other side, what about the property mix and geographic distribution?

#29 ric on 11.04.22 at 3:35 pm

get ready for the red tide on tuesday garth

#30 Søren Angst on 11.04.22 at 3:36 pm

#3 alexinvestor

locked-in your mortgage (which is the majority of people)

—————–

Half truth … conjecture

More than half of Canadian home buyers opted for variable-rate mortgages since July 2021, as these became cheaper relative to fixed.

Now (Aug 10 2022), that is reversing, returning to the historic norm. Fixed-rate mortgages made up 49% of all home loans in May, according to the latest data from the Bank of Canada, up from 43% in March, the lowest proportion since the Bank began tracking the data in 2013.

Mortgages of less than five years made up 53% of fixed-rate home loans in May, from 51% in January, Bank of Canada data shows.

[meaning MOST fixed are not 5 year]

– BoC Data

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadian-home-buyers-return-fixed-rate-loans-economy-wobbles-2022-08-10/

Variable took over in July 2021 and now even. See market share chart.

https://wowa.ca/fixed-vs-variable-mortgage

#31 KuatoLives on 11.04.22 at 3:38 pm

My unsecured rbc line of credit is up to 10.25%. Headed for 11 I guess.

#32 Søren Angst on 11.04.22 at 3:41 pm

TRAVEL TIP for Canadesi

[to save you embarrassment in Europa & how to get in on the act at the expense of AMERICANI]

Europa has been actively trolling Americani about their extensive knowledge of geography.

“Who does not know Listenbourg?”

https://twitter.com/gaspardooo/status/1586787427737280513

https://twitter.com/PrimeVideoFR/status/1587866663994753025
https://twitter.com/NetflixLBG/status/1587026430113845250
https://twitter.com/SpotifyLBG/status/1587032700535332866
https://twitter.com/ares_fighting/status/1588279798824022016

[the last 4 will cement the authenticity of Listenbourg in the minds of most Americani]

And if that doesn’t, this will …

https://twitter.com/PH_ListenBourg/status/1587071073878777856

RyanAir in on the act.

https://twitter.com/Ryanair/status/1588125530146095104

HOW TO GET IN ON THE ACT – BE A CONOSCENTI

Here is their flag & map in case you get asked to identify it by a Stati Uniti Turista.

https://twitter.com/anecdote_rapide/status/1587120760476278786
https://twitter.com/Listenbourg_NWS/status/1587753631696257026

You can show them satellite & main football stadium views.

https://twitter.com/Listenbourg_NWS/status/1587787888233795585
https://twitter.com/Pierre_hckr/status/1587594659156705282

Recite historical facts.

https://twitter.com/Listenbourg_NWS/status/1588158995445039104
https://twitter.com/Listenbourg_NWS/status/1587999003886624769
https://twitter.com/WilmusSunshine/status/1588225143091994625

Provide financial news.

https://twitter.com/Listenbourg_NWS/status/1588488010693222402

… and Lurenberg capital city transit directions.

https://twitter.com/RATLofficial/status/1588478025645322240

————————–

More FYI background for the wanna be CONSCENTI among you:

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/11/02/what-is-listenbourg-why-is-it-going-viral-on-twitter-why-did-the-meme-become-so-big-in-eur

LONG LIVE LISTENBOURG!

#33 Ustabe on 11.04.22 at 3:47 pm

#137 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 11:40 am

I am indeed enjoying Elon’s Twitter.

https://babylonbee.com/news/angry-liberals-forced-to-resort-to-old-fashioned-technique-of-just-not-reading-tweets-they-dont-like

Tell us that you are aware that The Babylon Bee is a pure satire site. They make things up to be funny.

And to promote a certain point of view.

From the Internet: “The Babylon Bee is a conservative Christian news satire website that publishes satirical articles on topics including religion, politics, current events, and public figures. It has been referred to as a Christian, evangelical, or conservative version of The Onion.”

#34 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:53 pm

#144 Don Guillermo on 11.04.22 at 1:16 pm

#72 Faron on 11.03.22 at 7:24 pm

…willfully…

…an LOL.

Sorry Don Guac,

https://www.grammarly.com/blog/wilful-willful/

and it’s “a LOL” unless you are from the pleistocene. It’s evolved into an acronym for the rest of us and is pronounced as it’s spelled.

Yours was kind of a FUBAR reply if you ask me.

#35 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 3:55 pm

#2 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 2:27 pm
Even Chrystia is talking downturn. She did that Thursday while spending $30 billion more and bringing in a brain-dead tax on corporate share buybacks.

——–

Yep. Idiotic idea.

Buffett says that when properly timed, share buybacks are one of the most beneficial uses of a corporation’s funds.

What’s next? Taxing retail investors’ stock purchases?

——————-
You talking about taxing all financial transactions?
you get taxed when you buy a hammer.
Why are stocks special?

#36 enthalpy on 11.04.22 at 4:03 pm

who are these people getting raises?

Sure haven’t seen it in my small circle.

#37 Buy Low Sell High on 11.04.22 at 4:04 pm

So pleased that Greater Fool is expanding its sights within the animal kingdom and including pics of our fair ornithological members! My Coco definitely approves from her HELOC free perch.

#38 millmech on 11.04.22 at 4:04 pm

Anyone here holding Shopify still, recall a while ago posters having their pension in their stock and accumulating more.
Did any of them sell, or still hoping for the rebound?

#39 Faron on 11.04.22 at 4:05 pm

#24 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 3:30 pm

Yep, exactly. Buy backs and dividends are aimed at attracting share holders and have very little to no value in growing the business unless the corp has plans to issue shares at some point to raise capital. Both buybacks and dividends cost money and hence raise or help support/justify prices for the corp’s product. This costs everyone (in the case of O+G corps where almost everyone is a customer) money whereas the dividends only go to the select few shareholders and buybacks only go to sellers of the stock. Taxing buybacks works on a tax on higher income brackets.

Ham-handedly, a tax on buybacks could work as an inflation suppressing mechanism if it can suppress the generation of free cash within a business. In reality, this would never happen. The corp will more likely move free cash elsewhere. Ideally into growing the business/R+D/CapEx.

#40 TurnerNation on 11.04.22 at 4:09 pm

What a Tax Slave Farm we are living.
This sounds totally natural, erect 10 towers and stuff em with tax slaves paying 1000/square foot for the privilege of living in these crowded blocs.

https://storeys.com/10-tower-proposal-1580-1650-dundas-street-east-mississauga/
10-Tower Proposal to Bring Over 3,000 Homes to Dixie Community
Another mega housing development is being proposed in Mississauga.
The proposal includes a total of 3,027 residential units, including both rental apartments and condo units. Five high-rise towers would soar from 18 to 41 storeys, while the five mid-rise buildings are between 12 and 15 storeys. The townhouse blocks are planned at three storeys.

————-
— UPPA

.TORONTO – Ontario is proposing to remove land from the Greenbelt, an area created to protect environmentally sensitive lands from development, in order to build at least 50,000 new homes, while adding new land to it elsewhere. (cp24.com)

— Once again, in March 2020 every system designed to protect us was turned against us. We are entering Year 4 here in this Former First World Country.

.Primary care doctors should resume in-person visits to take pressure off ERs, experts say (cbc.ca)

#41 Yorkville Renter on 11.04.22 at 4:09 pm

#14 the monetization of victimhood.

Sorry – who are you referring to here? “playing victim” is the first page in the GOP handbook (not that I’m suggesting the Left doesn’t do it, but it is magnitudes smaller than the far right)

#42 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 4:10 pm

#31 Ustabe on 11.04.22 at 3:47 pm
#137 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 11:40 am

I am indeed enjoying Elon’s Twitter.

——–

Tell us that you are aware that The Babylon Bee is a pure satire site. They make things up to be funny.

——–

Babylon Bee and CNN are equally trustworthy news sources.

And Fox has the most viewership. Swing, pendulum.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/fox-news-crushes-cnn-msnbc-viewership-combined-finish-october-1-cable-network

#43 zxcvbnm on 11.04.22 at 4:11 pm

@#14 Senator Bluto

Don’t be so sure. A few hundred thousand mail in ballots here, a couple of plugged toilets here, and some hidden tubs filled with completed ballots for good measure. One side may take more than half the votes, the other the remaining majority.

#44 pBrasseur on 11.04.22 at 4:11 pm

DELETED

#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 4:11 pm

#18 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:18 pm
#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 11:42 am

Got my flu and Covid shot.
Did my Civic duty to protect my fellow Citizens and myself.
Did you?
Or will you just keep on whining?

Yep, got mine. Bivalent in the left arm and the flu shot in the right.
————-
Getting your shots is a no brainer.
Only decision to make: left or right arm.
Got a pickle ball tourney this weekend, so I went with my “weaker”left arm, just in case.

#46 Faron on 11.04.22 at 4:18 pm

#31 Ustabe on 11.04.22 at 3:47 pm

#137 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 11:40 am

…The Babylon Bee…conservative Christian…

Sounds right up Sail Away’s alley.

Check out the “sponsored” content and who the sponsors are. Yikes. Kinda a gateway drug or radicalization or being fed into the disinformation pipe.

#47 Søren Angst on 11.04.22 at 4:23 pm

#24 Shawn

You and Berkshire.

BRK.A Nov 4, 4:03:13 PM UTC-4 · USD · NYSE

YTD -4.91%, – $22,300.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%

Amateur me, same time as above …

My Threadbare Portfolio

YTD +0.6%
Dividend Yield 27.9%

And there’s people here, like B— something or other, doing much better in Portfolio asset value, YTD.

On the share buybacks, actually own shares for a firm that does that and see what happens.

I did.

Have you?

#48 Gina on 11.04.22 at 4:25 pm

These immigrants are being lied to about how “happy” it is over here.

This isn’t the same country it was 20+ years ago when your parents moved to Canada and made a life for themselves.

That no longer exists. We live in the land of house crises and oligarchs like Garth Turner’s WordPress blog.

I got a Mexican buddy, he had a TFW job lined up doing farm labour in Alberta for $15 an hour. I told him to Google how much a case of beer costs in Alberta. He ended up turning down the job.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/refugee-stabs-herself-with-knife-in-front-of-federal-official-amid-desperate-plea-for-housing-1.6138287

Oligarch? I’m moving up in the world. – Garth

#49 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 4:33 pm

#21 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 3:24 pm

Rule No. Zero: Remember to proofread

——–

Naw, it was good. Rule No. ! is more descriptive.

#50 SW on 11.04.22 at 4:37 pm

Strength in commodities not bullish for stocks given inflation will continue to be stubborn and rates going higher to tame the beast. We have a long way to go. Oil has and continues to be the strongest sector. Maybe even the precious metals bull will return.

#51 Observer on 11.04.22 at 4:46 pm

#142 Don on 11.04.22 at 12:31 pm
Freeland is only loyal to the WEF. The enemy of humanity.

You conspiracy nuts are just sad. – Garth

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Canadians lacking in critical thinking skills, suffering from personal emotional traumas, have been rage farmed by the Conservative party and their backers, for example “Canada Proud” which posts multiple daily facebook entries most of the “Trudeau and Liberals evil” flavour. Same people hired by the Cons to help them with their “messaging”. I hope Canadian voters are paying attention

#52 David W2 on 11.04.22 at 4:50 pm

This jobs report is a positive sign, or a signal more ppl need to work to afford the rising cost of living and rate invreases.

As for interest rates coming back down, it’ll happen, just takes another black swan event that we should have all seen coming.

#53 NOSTRADAMUS on 11.04.22 at 4:52 pm

REALTOR,”I WISH I COULD STOP THIS D.I V.O.R.C.E.”
Realtor’s get such a bad rap for chasing ambulance’s and coffin’s. Mmmm, those tasty egg salad sandwiches served at a deceased’s wake sure hit the spot. A grief stricken agent has to keep his strength up. Sooo many business cards to hand out to all the grieving people. It’s going to be a panful afternoon pulling nose hair to make the eyes water up.
Now a local Realtor up in the Kawartha’s has taken, “HELPING,” to a new level of service. I kid you not, you can’t make this up.
Advertised, word for word as posted on the front page in This Week’s, Kawartha Lake’s Real Estate section.
Heading- D.I. V. O. R.C. E.
BEFORE YOU LIST YOUR KAWARTHA LAKES HOME, ORDER FREE SPECIAL REPORT THAT REVEALS WHAT HAPPENS TO YOUR MATRIMONIAL HOME , BEFORE, DURING, AND AFTER A DIVORCE.
FREE RECORDED MESSAGE 1-855-960-4991 1D # 6009
AGENT NAME AND REAL ESTATE COMPANY BELOW.
Mmmm, could this realtor be onto something???
Next week, I will keep my eye pealed for additional helpful advice, under the possible heading “CANCER” or REEFER MADNESS, maybe” DAD’S GOT DEMENTIA.” or my favorite,”
BARKEY, THE DOG HAS PASSED AWAY.” Sooo many idea’s, all designed to help the grieving public.
I have taken the liberty of changing some of the lyrics to Tammy Wynette’s song D.I.V.O.R.C.E.
” Our divorce, become final today. Me and little J.O.E. will be listing our house today. This will be pure H.E. double L for me, Oh, and by the way, my realtor wishes he could somehow stop this D.I.V.O.R.C.E. today.

#54 Søren Angst on 11.04.22 at 4:58 pm

#137 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 11:40 am

I am indeed enjoying Elon’s Twitter.

——————-

Me too. It’s been a hoot since Elon’s been in charge.

More diverse viewpoints than before.

I follow 617 Lefty, Righty and Inbetweensies *. Did this because I long suspected this on my feed, now confirmed and good riddance to them:

https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1588582664033878016

“Content Curation Team”, Finito, Benito.

* DYI Content Curation

#55 Babylon Bee on 11.04.22 at 5:00 pm

The only people who are unaware that the hilarious Bee is satire are all the lefty ” fact checkers” who insist on “fact checking” obvious parodies, which is even funnier.

#56 Bezengy on 11.04.22 at 5:00 pm

I watch Justin and Chrystia talk about all their accomplishments, granted some which are true, but dismiss a 50b deficit this year as if it’s immaterial, nothing to worry about. Trust us, we’ll balance the budget someday they declare. Meanwhile I pull out the calculator and calculate how many full time jobs that would pay for, just to put a little reality to the number. I’ve said it before, ban the word billion and force politicians to only use the word million. Like the deficit will be 50 thousand million this year, maybe that would help, but then again who am I kidding, we’re talking trillions now.

#57 The Original Jake on 11.04.22 at 5:04 pm

A 1/2 point increase by the BoC will put us behind the curve again with the US. Of course they don’t want to crash markets but they were late to start tightening and are easing up too quickly. Energy and food is still crazy expensive.

And while real estate has come down, it is still 40% higher than where it should be. Hard to see the meltdown happen by next year. Rates are going up for longer than most people think. Today’s job numbers were sizzling and has the FED sweating.

#58 alexinvestor on 11.04.22 at 5:05 pm

#28 Søren Angst

You can read my statement as “people who bought over the past 2 years and went variable are the minority of homeowners”. Only this rather small cohort of homeowners are in trouble.

#59 Penny Henny on 11.04.22 at 5:06 pm

#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 11:42 am
Got my flu and Covid shot.
Did my Civic duty to protect my fellow Citizens and myself.
Did you?
Or will you just keep on whining?
///////////////////

Hey Ponzi,
the shot didn’t take. You’re still whining.

#60 Robert B on 11.04.22 at 5:10 pm

2% on share buybacks is pocket change, based on the fact that money will be printed in the Oil sector next year.

Oil companies have until 2024 to start dishing that petty cash to the government.

But it troubles me that Freeland is a journalist turned Finance minister……God help Canada because we will need his help to get through this rising rate environment.

#61 Yukon Elvis on 11.04.22 at 5:12 pm

#18 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:18 pm
#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 11:42 am

Got my flu and Covid shot.
Did my Civic duty to protect my fellow Citizens and myself.
Did you?
Or will you just keep on whining?

Yep, got mine. Bivalent in the left arm and the flu shot in the right.
++++++++++++
You should have got your distemper and rabies booster too. Never skip that one.

#62 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 11.04.22 at 5:14 pm

So, I increase the float in order to raise cash to grow the business and then the buyback to reduce the outstanding shares, if it all works out, gets penalized. Seems good for Canadian corps, eh.

#63 Dogman01 on 11.04.22 at 5:23 pm

#14 Senator Bluto on 11.04.22 at 2:59 pm

The backlash can’t come soon enough.

“Racism does not have a good track record. It’s been tried out for a long time and you’d think by now we’d want to put an end to it instead of putting it under new management. ” ― Thomas Sowell

#64 earthboundmisfit on 11.04.22 at 5:26 pm

Re-posting shit from twitter is a sign of a very feeble mind.

#65 Don Guillermo on 11.04.22 at 5:33 pm

#32 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:53 pm
#144 Don Guillermo on 11.04.22 at 1:16 pm

#72 Faron on 11.03.22 at 7:24 pm

…willfully…

…an LOL.

Sorry Don Guac,

https://www.grammarly.com/blog/wilful-willful/

and it’s “a LOL” unless you are from the pleistocene. It’s evolved into an acronym for the rest of us and is pronounced as it’s spelled.

Yours was kind of a FUBAR reply if you ask me.

********
You’re right. Didn’t realize there was a different British and American spelling on this. I must have pushed my hydromorphone pain pump a couple of extra times. Strange the single ‘L’ spelling is British. Typically Americans spell words shorter. I believe it dates back to the typesetting days for efficiency but feel free to correct. Pretty cool that you got to squeeze the pleistocene word in. Googled it.

Interesting you bring up FUBAR. The first release may have been in your UofC days. Were you an extra? You have the look.

I best poke the pain pump again before you respond.

#66 Triplenet on 11.04.22 at 5:40 pm

#32 Faron

drunk again by noon – eh?
acronym vs initialism:
NASA -yes
FBI – no
RCMP – no
LOL – no
……are you getting it?
neanderthal

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.04.22 at 5:43 pm

@#38 Penny Henny
“Hey Ponzi,
the shot didn’t take. You’re still whining.”
+++
Damn!
You stole my “thunder”.
Back to the elevator for me……

#68 al on 11.04.22 at 5:45 pm

“Oh well, we have two for one peanut butter parfaits at Dairy Queen, that’s good news.”

Wait.. What!? How was this not mentioned in the blog today!?

#69 Faron on 11.04.22 at 5:46 pm

#40 Yukon Elvis on 11.04.22 at 5:12 pm
#18 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:18 pm

Yep, got mine. Bivalent in the left arm and the flu shot in the right.
++++++++++++
You should have got your distemper and rabies booster too. Never skip that one.

I don’t need those because I’m not a dog. I do have a solid ethical backbone and moral compass and a half-decent intellect which gives me complete immunity from a-holes like yourself. Cheers!

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 5:58 pm

#31 KuatoLives on 11.04.22 at 3:38 pm
My unsecured rbc line of credit is up to 10.25%. Headed for 11 I guess.
—————-
Just pay it off every month, and you won’t sweat it.

#71 AM in MN on 11.04.22 at 5:59 pm

#22 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:27 pm
#142 Don on 11.04.22 at 12:31 pm

Freeland is only loyal to the WEF. The enemy of humanity.

You conspiracy nuts are just sad. – Garth

Not just nutty and sad, WEF conspiracies are thinly veiled antisemitism.

——————————————————

The author of the linked article misses the main point.

While some of the old-school anti-banker, anti-semite rubes might have tried to join in, he doesn’t understand the bigger picture with regard to national sovereignty.

Energy is at the heart of modern society. Control of energy is at the heart of controlling people and industry. For an otherwise free nation to give up control over energy policy is to give up being a free nation. No such nation has any business being a part of the Paris Climate Accord.

In particular, at the same time as western nations drive themselves backwards, it gives control to the autocrats of the world. How does that make the world a better place?

After doing everything he can to destroy the energy sector in the UK, Boris Johnson made a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia to beg for more oil, the day after MBS has BEHEADED 81 people, many of them political opponents, yet the virtue signalers decry Albertans as being bad people.

This is one of the main policy agendas of the WEF. The people will have no say over it because those that will control the energy supplies aren’t voted into power.

Many of the people at the top of the WEF are old school Brits and Germans that do truly believe that the world would be a better place if the ruling class (them) ruled, and the rest of us did as we are told and paid our tribute, just like in medieval times.

I don’t want to live in that world, and nor do most on the “political right”. This is why PP got the support he did on his stand.

#72 MattyG on 11.04.22 at 6:00 pm

“Putin would luv to end the Ukraine war and keep his new Russia expansion in his domain.

Unfortunately, USA will never let Ukraine stop this war until Russia retreats or all is lost in Ukraine.

This war will sadly just get hotter and so will Inflation”

Best not to keep repreating Kremlin talking points.

Ukraine does not have the ability to simply stop the war. It is defending itself against Russian imperialism. It’s people and leadership have been very clear that the war stops only when the Russians leave Ukraine, or there is no more Ukraine.

The US is one of many nations helping it to be the former, rather than the latter.

But Putin could end this tomorrow.

#73 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 6:04 pm

Faron spouts some nonsense

#39 Faron on 11.04.22 at 4:05 pm

#24 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 3:30 pm

Yep, exactly. Buy backs and dividends are aimed at attracting share holders and have very little to no value in growing the business unless the corp has plans to issue shares at some point to raise capital. Both buybacks and dividends cost money and hence raise or help support/justify prices for the corp’s product. This costs everyone (in the case of O+G corps where almost everyone is a customer) money whereas the dividends only go to the select few shareholders and buybacks only go to sellers of the stock. Taxing buybacks works on a tax on higher income brackets.

Ham-handedly, a tax on buybacks could work as an inflation suppressing mechanism if it can suppress the generation of free cash within a business. In reality, this would never happen. The corp will more likely move free cash elsewhere. Ideally into growing the business/R+D/CapEx.

******************************
Please don’t imply that I said anything like the nonsense you spout here. You want to respond to something I say, please quote my words that you are responding to. I said nothing that supports what you say.

#74 Faron on 11.04.22 at 6:04 pm

#66 Triplenet on 11.04.22 at 5:40 pm

Nice of you to wilfully hurl your carcass onto the semantic dumpster fire whilst tossing out an ad hominem as you traced your writhing, ballistic arc.

Here, try these.

No offense, but I’m going to go with Cambridge on this one. Acronym pronounced “lowl” or “lawl”. Either way, it gets an a. Dig?

#75 Balmuto on 11.04.22 at 6:05 pm

“#26 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 3:30 pm
Share Buy Backs

Buy backs give money to departing selling and therefore FORMER shareholders. No cash goes to continuing shareowners who don’t sell any.

Whether that increases the share price depends on the market mood and if the shares were bought back at a good price and what it says about the company’s opportunities to invest for growth instead of doing buy backs.

As Buffett told us: It depends. He waited about 53 years before having Berkshire buy back any shares. Because he (Berkshire) had better uses for the cash.”

Was going to say something along these lines but you beat me to it.

I would just add that the buybacks tend to increase the share price as you have less outstanding shares but this rests on a fallacy in my view, as remaining shareholders have a larger share of the pie but the pie just got smaller (as the company depleted their cash reserves to repurchase the shares). Really the effect should be neutral, but there is some temporary boost to the price from a large buyer entering the market (the company buying back its shares).

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 6:13 pm

#54 Søren Angst on 11.04.22 at 4:58 pm
#137 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 11:40 am

I am indeed enjoying Elon’s Twitter.

——————-

Me too. It’s been a hoot since Elon’s been in charge.

More diverse viewpoints than before.

I follow 617 Lefty, Righty and Inbetweensies *. Did this because I long suspected this on my feed, now confirmed and good riddance to them:

https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1588582664033878016

“Content Curation Team”, Finito, Benito.

* DYI Content Curation
—————–
You’re living in one of the most beautiful countries in the World.
And all you do is sit on an old couch  in an old rented basement and follow some weirdos on Twitter.
Might as well move back to Alberta, and get it from the horse’s mouth at the local Timmy.

#77 Mattl on 11.04.22 at 6:14 pm

Garth, you’ve been clear and history is clear that normalized interest rates will crush RE. Happening now.

But very little commentary on interest rates and their impact on financial assets. The recomendations in February were that the markets would embrace higher interest rates and that the re-opening trade was going to be solid – that was also 22% ago. Adjusted for inflation, may end the year close to 30% down.

Interested in understanding how you feel further tightening will impact markets? Mr. Market seems to wet the bed on any bullish talk. Where do we go from here? I’m staying invested because I don’t have any other ideas but feels like markets will continue to get crushed. Would appreciate some commentary on something other then housing.

Dow up 400 points today. Some crush. – Garth

#78 Ed on 11.04.22 at 6:18 pm

No shots for this senior this year…in the last 2 years I’ve had 2 flu shots & 3 Covid shots…after which I’ve had Covid twice but not the flu.

Did you die? – Garth

#79 IHCTD9 on 11.04.22 at 6:18 pm

DELETED

#80 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 6:19 pm

#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 4:11 pm

Getting your shots is a no brainer.
Only decision to make: left or right arm.

Got a pickle ball tourney this weekend, so I went with my “weaker”left arm, just in case.

——-

I don’t have a weaker arm. Just ‘Thunder’ and ‘Lightning’.

Still can’t do a one-arm pullup, but it’s getting closer. Maybe when I hit 51 and get more old man strength.

#81 Dogman01 on 11.04.22 at 6:21 pm

Tuesday – USA and their politics my 1000ft View.

Back in the day the US establishment was aligned to the Republicans, Bush, Cheney era. The Christian Right, moral majority and all that stuff in lock step with the War-mongering Neo Cons, all living in the same house.

But after a lot of pointless foreign wars , globalized outsourcing, continuous wealth gains by the 1%, Snowden information dumps, etc a few principled, patriotic Right leaning Americans looked up and realized these dynamics were harmful to Americans.

…and then to make a long story short they ended up with Trump. Clean the swamp, anti China, end the pointless foreign wars, MAGA etc.

So what did the US Establishment do…well they Co-opted the Left with a deal.

“Lefties, you allow and ignore us establishment guys as we continue to make (proxy) war, fund our security state, make enormous amounts of wealth for our 1% and we will support your weird Social Justice stuff.
The right wing people have got these icky things called principles and they are getting in the way of our goals, you Lefties just got all these irrational emotions and we can manipulate that much easier….“we are a kinder, gentler, greener, WOKE machine gun hand”.

The election of Trump was a rejection of these Establishment Guys, the rejection of Biden in the mid-terms will be another rejection of this Establishment.

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 6:22 pm

#61 Yukon Elvis on 11.04.22 at 5:12 pm
#18 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:18 pm
#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 11:42 am

Got my flu and Covid shot.
Did my Civic duty to protect my fellow Citizens and myself.
Did you?
Or will you just keep on whining?

Yep, got mine. Bivalent in the left arm and the flu shot in the right.
++++++++++++
You should have got your distemper and rabies booster too. Never skip that one.
———
Elvis,
FYI Pfizer is coming out with a shot that increases your
IQ by 20 points.
Too bad, that won’t help you much.
But, they are working on one that will double your IQ.
At least then you’ll be about average.

#83 roofer on 11.04.22 at 6:25 pm

Most people in my area aren’t working thanks to the money they’ve made on their house and investment property. T2 has made everyone rich and many don’t need his really bad jobs that his economy is creating.

T2 should work them himself!

#84 Faron on 11.04.22 at 6:26 pm

#73 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 6:04 pm

Hah. Wow, triggered much? I was agreeing with your statement that share buybacks don’t support existing share holders until they sell. i.e. your words:

Buy backs give money to departing selling and therefore FORMER shareholders. No cash goes to continuing shareowners who don’t sell any.

And then I built on your statement. Why would I simply re-iterate what you said? A conversation with you sounds like a boring nightmare as you seem to prefer an audience of yes-people who quietly nod in agreement.

Discourse happens when ideas are shared and then added to or challenged. It doesn’t happen when one of the participants gets triggered thinking I’m aiming to simply re-write that participants message.

Regardless, there’s a reason that a lot of tech companies don’t issue dividends and that young ones don’t buy back shares — they are using and need the cash to grow the business and innovate. That’s a worthy goal and fuels growth and evolution.

#85 Faron on 11.04.22 at 6:34 pm

#75 Balmuto on 11.04.22 at 6:05 pm

I see what you are saying, but share price isn’t solely a function of the book value of the company. A big part of share price is the demand for the business’ discounted future cash flow which is insensitive to the buyback. Thus, I don’t think you should see a zero sum there, but a muted response that reflects the expenditure of those assets in light of everything else.

#86 Faron on 11.04.22 at 6:40 pm

#71 AM in MN on 11.04.22 at 5:59 pm
#22 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:27 pm
#142 Don on 11.04.22 at 12:31 pm

Read the article. Seriously, it’s good and addresses your broad concerns. In essence, you need to find a truer, more nuanced view of the version of globalism that you don’t like that avoids the antisemitic garbage that comes with spouting nonsense about some non-existant WEF cabal.

…Lest readers think I am an anti-anti-WEF fanatic, let me end on a note of sympathy for those caught up in conspiracy theories like WEF. What some WEF haters are experiencing isn’t nice. There is something wrong with our society. Their feelings of powerlessness and a lack of agency are real. But, Klaus Schwab, George Soros, nor the Rothschilds are not to blame. Instead, it’s our politics and society, and dare I even say our elites. We have subjected a large segment of Canadians, for a generation, to stagnating living conditions through economic mismanagement and conspicuous rent-seeking. We have eviscerated local communities with relentless globalization, urbanization, and consumerism. We have told ourselves that the totality of our history is racist and exclusionary. And we subjected our citizenry to the ruthless amplification of disinformation by unregulated, predatory algorithms. The rise of “conspiracism” as its own potent ideology is a consequence of the failure of public policy and elites to foster a society of broad-based optimism and opportunity.

There are no easy fixes here. No convenient scapegoats. Antisemitism must be confronted in all its guises. Not doing so is to invite a moral stain that will smother all of us. Same for ignoring the real anxieties of many of our fellow citizens who are experiencing the world today as if it is spinning out of control. While the theories conspiracists are peddling are beyond fringe, their existence is a loud warning that everything is far from alright for many Canadians. Complacency isn’t an answer here either.

#87 MLwS on 11.04.22 at 6:56 pm

Birds? BIRDS?!?!

I love the variety, Garth. Thanks Leslie for the bold submission.

Too positive for this crowd. Rah, Inflation! Sigh, employment numbers. Grumble, grumble, toil and trouble.

#88 the Jaguar on 11.04.22 at 7:08 pm

“Will the seeds of that be planted on Tuesday night?” – GT+++

We don’t need ‘seeds’, we need the Cavalry. We are now in the ‘Winter of our discontent’.

“Offne deine Augen”, peeps. It’s fine to kill demand by raising interest rates, but ignore the geopolitical repercussions of supply at your peril. DIESEL isn’t just a clothing company. It’s the lifeblood of the world economy and getting scarcer by the minute at the hands of the gang that couldn’t shoot straight.

Energy is GDP. Period. What kind of energy is produced in what location and refining capacity to convert to specific use is critical. We’ll find out in the next six months. Fasten you seatbelts those of you who live in the quiet countryside under a blanket of complacency.

Revolutionary forces are growing, but will their numbers and efforts be enough to slay the enemy from within? Will Tuesday night offer clues? Hard to know, but a lot is at stake including freedom of speech. We can only enjoy the beauty and inventiveness of a Red-Factor Sun Conure named Ruby until then, and take some satisfaction from recent events that may signal free speech will be defended.

‘Starlink has been told by some governments (not Ukraine) to block Russian news sources. We will not do so unless at gunpoint. Sorry to be a free speech absolutist. – Elon Musk’.

Amen, Elon.

#89 Steven Rowlandson on 11.04.22 at 7:10 pm

“a detached house in 416 topped two mill. The average sale price, precisely, was $2,073,986. Today that property can be yours for (only) $1,609,077.’

No deals yet Garth. There is still a long drop before homes are affordable.

#90 Yukon Elvis on 11.04.22 at 7:10 pm

#69 Faron on 11.04.22 at 5:46 pm
#40 Yukon Elvis on 11.04.22 at 5:12 pm
#18 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:18 pm

Yep, got mine. Bivalent in the left arm and the flu shot in the right.
++++++++++++
You should have got your distemper and rabies booster too. Never skip that one.

I don’t need those because I’m not a dog. I do have a solid ethical backbone and moral compass and a half-decent intellect which gives me complete immunity from a-holes like yourself. Cheers!
+++++++++++
You bark,howl,chase cars,and bite tires. You should get the shots.

#91 Penny Henny on 11.04.22 at 7:11 pm

#20 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:18 pm
#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 11:42 am

Got my flu and Covid shot.
Did my Civic duty to protect my fellow Citizens and myself.
Did you?
Or will you just keep on whining?

Yep, got mine. Bivalent in the left arm and the flu shot in the right.
////////////

Hasn’t stopped your whining either.

#92 Yukon Elvis on 11.04.22 at 7:17 pm

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 6:22 pm
#61 Yukon Elvis on 11.04.22 at 5:12 pm
#18 Faron on 11.04.22 at 3:18 pm
#139 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 11:42 am

Got my flu and Covid shot.
Did my Civic duty to protect my fellow Citizens and myself.
Did you?
Or will you just keep on whining?

Yep, got mine. Bivalent in the left arm and the flu shot in the right.
++++++++++++
You should have got your distemper and rabies booster too. Never skip that one.
———
Elvis,
FYI Pfizer is coming out with a shot that increases your
IQ by 20 points.
Too bad, that won’t help you much.
But, they are working on one that will double your IQ.
At least then you’ll be about average.
+++++++++++
So that’s how you did it. Are you getting regular boosters too?

#93 Mattl on 11.04.22 at 7:18 pm

Dow up 400 points today. Some crush. – Garth

———————————————————–

And off 400 for the week. Since when was investing a one day return type thing? SP is off 21% YTD, adjusted over 25% YTD.

Will be interesting to see how markets will respond long term to normalized rates. Thought that was something your readers would be interested in, but you are right, the DOW was up today so there is that.

The point being this is hardly a scary market. October gain was 14%. Rates will be absorbed. Get over it. – Garth

#94 Faron on 11.04.22 at 7:23 pm

#80 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 6:19 pm
#45 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 4:11 pm

Just ‘Thunder’ and ‘Lightning’.

Begs the question “which part of your anatomy do you call Rudolph?”

(that joke’s for you Ponz).

#95 willworkforpickles on 11.04.22 at 7:25 pm

BANNED (Abusive)

#96 crossbordershopper on 11.04.22 at 7:48 pm

while lots of you discuss the details of real estate and inflation and interest rates. the 4.2 million families who are getting a GST cheque are all thankful to Mr. Trudeau and friends.
Canada is a poor country, where most of us are waiting for that 262.50 extra cheque.
no games no stories, people are struggling out there. I see it everyday. The guy who pumped gas with his change he put on he counter, then to the grocery store where where was a swarm of old ladies looking at the reduced fruit and veg stand. Some people go to dinner on Friday night, some are greatful to have one.

#97 Wrk.dover on 11.04.22 at 7:57 pm

Stock buy backs reduce number of shares to spread dividend amongst, when there are earnings.

In theory.

But then with yet more earnings, they again buy more back and stiff the divvy collector.

Keeps the value of the firm up, hoodwinking retail investors. Corporate suite bonuses abound!

I’m still waiting for my share of the profit from the firms I invested my cash in for profit.

The firms have absorbed it.

Wrk.dover again

#98 DER on 11.04.22 at 7:58 pm

On the face of it I don’t have a problem with the concept of share buybacks for a Corporation HOWEVER what discussed me is to witness what the con artist, Trump , did a couple years back in the US.
He sold congress on huge tax breaks for corporations with large amounts of profits from off shore so that they could bring the money “home” cheaply in order to invest in new plants and American jobs.
Turns out that hardly one new job was created as almost every corporation used this windfall to buy back shares in their respective companies ( hundreds of BILLIONS) .
So the CEOs got big bonuses and share values went up but all the tax money avoided means nothing for all the social inequities that exist in that country that need to be funded.

Not capitalism finest hour.

#99 That Guy on 11.04.22 at 8:11 pm

Thanks for all you do Garth, I sincerely believe you are a person with the brains and desire to do good, and follow through.

As for Tuesday; red wave incoming! Too many ppl see through the lies keeping Biden doddering along.
Sadly, we are witnessing the decline of the American empire. Whoever wins will be attacked mercilessly in the courts and rioting will take over the cities.
Balanced and diversified, especially diversified outside of the USA!

#100 The Gold Standard on 11.04.22 at 8:15 pm

The reason why I read the comments section is for nuggets like this:

Babylon Bee
Canada Proud

I always skip past:
Soren Angst
Faron
Sail Away

Anybody who posts 3-4-5-6 plus times each day needs a new hobby.

#101 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 8:29 pm

#75 Balmuto on 11.04.22 at 6:05 pm
“#26 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 3:30 pm
Share Buy Backs

Buy backs give money to departing selling and therefore FORMER shareholders. No cash goes to continuing shareowners who don’t sell any.

Whether that increases the share price depends on the market mood and if the shares were bought back at a good price and what it says about the company’s opportunities to invest for growth instead of doing buy backs.

As Buffett told us: It depends. He waited about 53 years before having Berkshire buy back any shares. Because he (Berkshire) had better uses for the cash.”

*******************
Balmuto’s response:

Was going to say something along these lines but you beat me to it.

I would just add that the buybacks tend to increase the share price as you have less outstanding shares but this rests on a fallacy in my view, as remaining shareholders have a larger share of the pie but the pie just got smaller (as the company depleted their cash reserves to repurchase the shares). Really the effect should be neutral, but there is some temporary boost to the price from a large buyer entering the market (the company buying back its shares).

****************************
Agreed 100%. Buffett says if you own x% of a company they buy back a bunch of shares from other people, you now own a bit more than that X% of the company “without laying out another dime”.

But Balmuto I totally agree, Buffett does not acknowledge that company you own is a bit smaller as some cash just left the premises.

The benefit comes if (and only if) the company effectively bought back shares at less than their true intrinsic value. This is the test Buffett focuses on.

Usually the cash was earning next to nothing. So earnings don’t go down and the earnings stay about the same and so earnings per share go up and at the same P/E the stock price usually rises. But not necessarily. Afterall that cash was worth something and now it’s gone.

Anyhow, if everyone would look up and closely read Buffett’s full statements on this in his annual letters (as I have several times) then you all will be educated on the matter. Do an advanced google search on berkshirehathaway.com and his golden words will come up.

#102 Ronaldo on 11.04.22 at 8:34 pm

#83 roofer on 11.04.22 at 6:25 pm
Most people in my area aren’t working thanks to the money they’ve made on their house and investment property. T2 has made everyone rich and many don’t need his really bad jobs that his economy is creating.

T2 should work them himself!
————————————————————–
Illusionary wealth. Will soon be gone if they stayed in the market.

#103 Ronaldo on 11.04.22 at 8:45 pm

#89 Steven Rowlandson on 11.04.22 at 7:10 pm
“a detached house in 416 topped two mill. The average sale price, precisely, was $2,073,986. Today that property can be yours for (only) $1,609,077.’

No deals yet Garth. There is still a long drop before homes are affordable.
————————————————————-
A long drop. Even a million at 6% is $5000 per month interest. Who would pay that much rent for a rat infested slanty semi in Vancouver. Going to be many a reluctant landlord in the very near future.

#104 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.04.22 at 9:00 pm

99 That Guy on 11.04.22 at 8:11 pm
Thanks for all you do Garth, I sincerely believe you are a person with the brains and desire to do good, and follow through.

As for Tuesday; red wave incoming! Too many ppl see through the lies keeping Biden doddering along.
Sadly, we are witnessing the decline of the American empire. Whoever wins will be attacked mercilessly in the courts and rioting will take over the cities.
Balanced and diversified, especially diversified outside of the USA!
———————
Have to say I got the same feeling.
Maybe it’s time to revisit the old :
“Never bet against America”.

#105 Sail Away on 11.04.22 at 9:44 pm

DELETED (Abusive)

#106 Victor Llearna on 11.04.22 at 9:57 pm

Sheep will be crying BAHHHHH!! BAAHHHHH! when it comes time to renew their mortgage.
They can’t even flock to the exits cause they will be underwater. Hope sheep can swim.

#107 Terry on 11.04.22 at 10:44 pm

There is no other way to crush demand. We must get to double interest rates, 10, 12, 14 maybe even 16+ percent as soon as possible! The way we are going it looks like we should be there by summer of 2023. These are the only high rates that will stop people from borrowing, spending, partying, traveling, working more and demanding more in wages.

#108 the Jaguar on 11.04.22 at 11:53 pm

DonG – sent you a message

#109 Mark on 11.04.22 at 11:54 pm

Sellers are still delusional. Capitulation is yet to come. The fun has just begun.

#110 Two cups on 11.04.22 at 11:56 pm

Because communism has worked so well under Stalin and Mao we now have the Freeland Doctrine.

https://financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-chrystia-freeland-brings-chinese-capitalism-to-ottawa

You say the buyback tax was brain dead in arrival? I say it’s a laser focused trial balloon precursor to fully taxing dividends followed by windfall tax rates on your homes. Because the Freeland Doctrine replaces the fundamental private sector risk premium of the dividend tax credit. Under the New Canadian Communist Model. Private funding will be subplanted by a Federal Government that thinks it’s smarter than any private sector bozo or industry chief.

#111 TurnerNation on 11.05.22 at 12:11 am

This seems…normal.
Today:
Natural gas + 8.1%
Copper + 8%
Silver 7.4%

#112 Regjeg on 11.05.22 at 1:13 am

Wage growth in Canada is reported to be accelerating.

At what point in the cycle does growth in wages become less a mechanism to catch up to escalating rates of inflation and more a driving factor that itself accelerates the rate of inflation?

#113 Wrk.dover on 11.05.22 at 6:40 am

Furthermore, my CDN so-called dividend ETF’s are full of buy back corporations.

Hence the paltry dividend, while the valuation hovers in a fairly small range.

Covering me from inflation about as much as next months GIC’s investments as an alternative, could.

Energy ETF’s such as my ZEO don’t reflect the massive special dividends from my also separately held TOU within them, in their paltry dividend while Gas & Oil has earned more money than God in recent quarters.

Masks are for more than airborne pathogens, they are for robbers too. Mandatory mask Bay St.

Or, am I naive, and this is all good business?

#114 Phylis on 11.05.22 at 8:30 am

#111 TurnerNation on 11.05.22 at 12:11 am
Xxxx
Best post ever!

#115 Kiril Peev on 11.05.22 at 9:18 am

Ottawa Real Estate Market Update:

The Ottawa real estate market continued to correct in October. Prices were down on a year to year basis as well as on a month to month basis.

Detached home prices lost 6.0% from a year ago. They were also down about $32,000 on a month to month basis.

Townhomes lost 4.6% compared to a year ago and lost about $25,000 on a month to month basis.

Condos gained about 9.3% compared to a year ago and lost about $5,000 on a month to month basis.

In my opinion, there is no reasonable case for home prices to start appreciating anytime in the next 3 months barring any government intervention. My base case scenario is for prices to keep declining until mortgage rates peak.

Once mortgage rates have peaked and the market is confident that there will be no more mortgage rate increases, home prices should start to stabilise.

https://www.kirilpeev.ca/ottawa-real-estate-market-update-for-october-2022/

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.05.22 at 9:49 am

@#110 Two cups

https://financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-chrystia-freeland-brings-chinese-capitalism-to-ottawa

++++

Interesting article.
The “leaders” that pushed “trade globalism” on us for the past 35 years have done a volte face and now want the govt to direct industry and trade.

More bureaucrats.
Great.

Sadly, what our “non finance Finance Minister” Freeland and “Former school teacher” Trudeau don’t realize is ;
On the grand global trade system….Canada is irrelevant
Grain, lumber, oil….. and thats about it.
Computers? Smart Phones? Semiconductors?
We’re suddenly going to compete with China?
With $13 billion in govt seed money?
Pffft.
Taiwan’s world renowned chip producing private sector plans on spending $50-$100 billion in manufacturing UPGRADES over the next few years, to take their semi conductor industry into an unstoppable, incomparable level of production.

Canada can’t find Tim Hortons window servers to hand you your coffee….. let alone find 1000’s upon 1000’s of high tech assembly line workers.

My experiences with all levels of govt on a day to day basis?
I’ll wager to say 50% of that $13 billion the govt promises to “invest” in industry will be spent on the creation and or the expansion of MORE govt bureaucracy to slow down everyone with their endless paperwork, emails and interference.
If Canadian govt bureaucratic history over the past 100 years has taught taxpayers anything.
Govt bureaucrats cant create or run businesses because if it fails….that dont lose their jobs or get fired….so they dont really care.
Overly planned, Overbudget, overdue, govt funded white elephants time after time after time.

And 120 miles away from Taiwan ( the “Break away Province” kinda like a Vancouver Island ?)…..China is sitting and waiting for the right time to move…

#117 Regjeg on 11.05.22 at 10:10 am

Re #106 Have you ever tried swimming while wearing a wool sweater?

#118 Dharma Bum on 11.05.22 at 12:18 pm

#104 Ponzius Pilatus

Have to say I got the same feeling.
Maybe it’s time to revisit the old :
“Never bet against America”.
——————————————————————————————————-

I tend to agree. Ponzie is right.

I’m spending a month or so in the U.S., mostly in Arizona.

It’s always fun here at election time. There are more attack ads and negative election signs than you can shake a stick at. It’s like a college football town rivalry.

It seems as if everyone and everything down here is absolutely thriving and flourishing. Businesses are insanely busy. The traffic is ridiculous, and the cars are all shiny, new, and expensive. The homes (if you ignore the slums) are gorgeous. People seem happy. Friendly. OK, maybe a little nutty. But in an enthusiastic way.

I guess it’s just a purely anecdotal observation of a small sample size, but it seems to be indicative of the business attitude in America. The choice and abundance of goods and services here is astounding. Those that have opportunity, and a chance at earning some money, seem to do really, really well. (Others, not so much.)

It is, however, at the expense of the vulnerable. That’s America. Especially places like Arizona. They had the second highest COVID death toll. They simply don’t care. it’s business first here.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Arizona prioritizes business over everything. I’m not saying that’s a noble stance to take, however, as far as “investing” is concerned, it’s a positive attribute from a purely financial perspective.

To Ponzie’s point of not betting against America. Financially speaking, of course.

The morality of it is questionable, but since when have investors been moral?

It’s really all about the money for most investors.

An America is all about the money.

Mostly.

#119 Tony on 11.05.22 at 3:31 pm

Re: #12 Jim on 11.04.22 at 2:54 pm

Share buybacks should always be deemed illegal. This is pure insider trading and once and for all should be deemed illegal.

#120 Tony on 11.05.22 at 3:44 pm

Re: #111 TurnerNation on 11.05.22 at 12:11 am

A figure which has always predicted recession and has never been wrong is the amount bet per person at the racetracks. The figure has yet to fall. I’ve been buying silver below 20 dollars U.S. knowing there’ll be a lot of yearend profit taking by the shorts as well as yearend profit taking on the U.S. dollar by the shorts. Yearend profit taking on the U.S. dollar by the shorts would explain part of the bounce in commodities.

#121 Tony on 11.05.22 at 3:54 pm

Re: #101 Shawn on 11.04.22 at 8:29 pm

Share buybacks are pure insider trading. The corporations can buyback shares knowing profits went through the roof before the earnings are made public. Tell me what the difference between insider trading and share buybacks are?

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