Broadloom in the sky

While financial markets are coiled for a rebound, albeit volatile, real estate seems pooched. Comatose. In serious trouble. In fact, you have no idea how much.

You see, interest rate increases may pause in early 2023 as inflation falters, as China drops zero-Covid, Trump is indicted and Russia gives up, but mortgage rates are staying high. And at the end of the day, that’s all the housing market cares about, even as financial markets restore.

Look at poor Toronto, the (formerly) bubbliest property market on the planet.

Guess how many newly-constructed houses were sold in 416 during September? Zero. In fact in the giant GTA (pop: 6,000,000) total sales were 45. Down 92%. Meanwhile condo sales also collapsed – by 89%.

In T.O. during September only 109 units (new builds) changed hands. And how many are currently under construction? Over ninety thousand. Is this a supply disaster rolling towards the entire market with the ability to overwhelm demand and crush prices for years? Our veteran realtor insider, Old Ron, seems to think so. We just received this missive from the field:

Garth: As you know the condo segment of the real estate market has been a virtual ATM for investor/specs since 2016. The vast majority of sales were buyers with no intention of closing the deal (Paper Flippers) and others who wanted to rent out the unit and wait for the “guaranteed” appreciation in price. Of course all of this depended on 1% money to grease the wheels. Then the cost of money took off.

The thing that stands out for me is the number of units now in the construction phase (96,510) These are expected to be completed by early Q3 next year. Adding that many units to the rental market may help to drop Toronto’s elevated rents a little, but from the buyer’s point of view the issues are dire. Many have been trying to flog the Agreement of Purchase and Sale for many months but that market has dropped to zero. Nobody wants the paper. Now the buyers are faced with the prospect of closing the deal and taking possession.

Inflation has driven the new Condo prices to $1,380 a sq. ft, while re-sales prices have slipped to $891 sq. ft. So the math doesn’t work if the buyer wants to re-sell the physical unit. Of course this will depend on how long ago they bought the new build. Those who bought early may have some equity, but the late comers to the Speculation Party paid a lot more and are now or soon will be the proud owners of some broadloom in the sky, that is under water, with a negative cash flow.

From an employment point of view the construction jobs should be ok for about 9 months, then drop sharply as the Condo market is not adding very many new builds. Those sales are down an astounding 89% from last year.

Meanwhile, have governments really messed up with the worst possible timing on their anti-foreign-dude tax grab? And now the empty-house Hoovering in BC and Toronto?

Maybe. While offshore buyers never did move prices higher in any Canadian market, the virtual elimination of that money stream could mean Canadian housing equity stays depressed for longer, say the experts. After all, Canada’s message to the world is pretty clear: bug off.

Nine weeks from now a federal ban on all foreign buying takes effect. Never before in Canadian history has such a thing been attempted, and came as a kneejerk reaction by the T2 gang to ‘do something’ about high prices. Well, now those prices are falling, the market is croaking, sales are disappearing, and the ban is about to hit.

This comes atop the 20% anti-Chinese tax (what it really is, after all) in BC, and Ontario’s outrageous province-wide levy of 25% on the purchase price of properties by non-residents. It now ranks Canada as having the most xenophobic real estate regime in the world. Just as things crumble. And immediately after a two-year-long pandemic which saw offshore investment dry up all on its own.

Despite the bans, taxes, Covid restrictions and barriers, housing affordability in Canada has only become worse, says RBC. If government actions can be judged by their outcomes, these constitute a giant fail. Every country in the world (except us) wants to attract talented, well-off people and a large number do so by allowing permanent stays along with a residential real estate purchase. Only time will reveal how this hurts us.

Finally, pity the poor mortgage brokers of this land. “Jesus, it’s slow,” says the crusty veteran Ron Butler. Here’s yesterday’s plaintiff Tweet. Parental discretion is advised.

Talked To Bunch of Mortgage Brokers: How Slow is It?

3 Types of Responses:

1) Fck Me it’s just the end of the world.. so bad = HONESTY

2) The slight slow down is a great opportunity to retool, perfect our CRM and really provide value to Clients = SENDING OUT RESUMES

3) Business is great, we pivoted to Alternative & Commercial Mortgages and we’re such an established group of specialists with pitch perfect marketing we succeed in any situation = DRUNK OR HIGH AF. Or just chronic liars. Jesus it’s slow.

About the picture: “Thought you might like a pic of dogs from here in Australia,” writes Cathy. “I just met the loveliest dogs, Annie and Barney, as they chilled on the beach in Cairns.  They have just had a swim in the ocean.  I have read your blog for a long time and know that I can relax by the sea listening to the waves because I have a B&D portfolio that I can completely ignore right now.  Markets cycle, just like the waves. (I live in Calgary when not on the beach.)”

137 comments ↓

#1 Old Boot on 11.01.22 at 2:20 pm

And right on cue….

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2022/11/an-immigration-plan-to-grow-the-economy.html

#2 Captain Uppa on 11.01.22 at 2:23 pm

While I do not contest any of the above information in today’s post, I still see homes changing hands at very high prices (not far off from Feb 22) in my neck of the GTA woods.

What explains these deals? Just saw a home sold in two days for a price that is by no means a discount.

#3 Linda on 11.01.22 at 2:25 pm

One look was all it took to know that wherever today’s dog photo was, it was not in Canada! Snowflakes are falling where I’m at.

OK, so RE has slowed down & all these new (condo?) builds are about to become actual physical units someone can occupy in the GTA. Given that our so called xenophobic government is gearing up to accept 500,000 new immigrants per annum by 2025, would that not ensure that there might be actual in person occupants of said units, albeit at less than positive ROI? One must believe those new owners will be looking to get some kind of cash flow going to offset the heavy cost of their investment.

#4 Why Didn't I Think of That? Invest WHERE IS IS CHEAPER!!!! on 11.01.22 at 2:35 pm

We dropped Canada 20 years as a place to invest ago.
Same old pattern was emerging
Poor immigrants and young people having the daylights fleeced out of them non stop across canada while all the sweet deals 142 million of them are in the USA.
Canada is the last place on earth we would ever buy a home or condo in.

#5 ElGatoNeroYVR on 11.01.22 at 2:39 pm

A couple points to bring to the converssation:
-condos are extremely overpriced and deserve to drop -Shanghai prices at a quarter of amenities , tranportatin and public safety ,better air quality though so that’s that
-while still at condos the presale asignments are still trying to make money or break even ,eventually they will have to take well deserved losses -here’s hoping for it
-foreigner ban is pretty much useless , Ontario will learn from our beautiful BC the definition and mechanics of a ” proxy buyer ” .
-as a side note that explains the lack of “foreign buyers” in the numbers even though evidence on the ground is contrary.If the model doesn’t match the observed ,real life reality(sic) guess which one is wrong?

#6 Sail Away on 11.01.22 at 2:41 pm

Thanks Garth!

Punitive real estate taxation, as well as interest rate changes, both need to be introduced in a slow and measured fashion, similar to steering a boat.

For all of the above, the effect takes time to be fully realized. Far better to slightly understeer and correct again than vigorously overdo it and spin in circles.

The interest rate increases are working well. RE punitive taxation is spinning in circles.

#7 Rainman on 11.01.22 at 2:42 pm

One sale for a detached in Squamish for October. Prices sticky, but coming down. Much more to come….

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 2:43 pm

The Govt, the Realtors, the Speculators, the banks all had a hand in this .

Greed and spineless indecision.

Long overdue.

Bring it… and may Trudeau and his Cabinet feel the full fury of a recession ravaged population.

#9 John on 11.01.22 at 2:44 pm

“Maybe. While offshore buyers never did move prices higher in any Canadian market, the virtual elimination of that money stream could mean Canadian housing equity stays depressed for longer, say the experts.”

That’s a load of crap and you know it. Shame on you for stating this. We don’t even know who owns half of the most expensive houses in Vancouver and in a city where a bungalow goes for 3 million we know it is not locals.

#10 IHCTD9 on 11.01.22 at 2:47 pm

Hard to feel bad for the specuvestors, live by the sword…

As always, the strife will be concentrated in urban Canada, so that’s good for us hillbillies beyond bunny patch. Especially us crusty pre-Trudeau homeowners who have literally been laughing solid at what has been going on around us since 2015. I do hope the metro innocents can make a successful escape to the good life.

The GTA/GRVD are taking on a lot of the characteristics of the steadily emptying US Metros. They’ll need even higher international immigration numbers to keep the population on the level. Fortunately, Trudeau has you covered via a tsunami of international student Visas. Not sure how that’s going to work out, but it will indeed increase our population numbers.

#11 Earlybird on 11.01.22 at 2:51 pm

Air B and B is a scurge and shouldnt exist.
Foreign buying shouldnt be allowed and am in agreement with this policy.
Big standoff between buyers and sellers….who blinks first?

#12 No Fool on 11.01.22 at 2:54 pm

So 9 months for the condo market in Toronto to completely crater (not correct) – about time and looks good on the greedy flippers.

Any idea on how long for houses to crater? Cottages? Commercial? It all has a trickle down effect. Given the correction in GTA housing, I think there’s far worse ahead given what Garth has smartly pointed out. Thanks Garth.

#13 The Gorn on 11.01.22 at 2:54 pm

Ha ha losers

Sucks to be Canadian. Don’t forget about your NAFTA Visa options. Come join me for sunny weather and patios.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ottawa-reveals-plan-welcome-500-153943618.html

#14 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 2:57 pm

huray!
More dollars from heaven!

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/11/01/canadians-millions-money-gst/

The Trudeau Liberals have no end to the ideas on how to burn through taxpayer cash…..

CERB by another name.

#15 Richard L on 11.01.22 at 2:59 pm

The mortgage broker comments at the end are hilarious

#16 Dave on 11.01.22 at 3:06 pm

Mortgage broker? What training is needed for this? How to use a calculator? Some of these people will be weeded out with this real estate collapse.

#17 Parksville Prankster on 11.01.22 at 3:07 pm

Meanwhile, while coffeeing it up with some of the blue rinse set out here, talk turned to real estate, natch, ‘cause it’s a cult out here here on the island.

The feeling on the street is that sales and prices will stay sticky for the winter, but come roaring back biggly in the spring.

Many are delisting to ride out the perceived dip, which they feel will inevitably end in upward prices, because everyone wants to retire here, and spend their Boomer Bucks on drywall and their Forever Home. /s

#18 The Great Gazoo on 11.01.22 at 3:11 pm

“Meanwhile, have governments really messed up with the worst possible timing on their anti-foreign-dude tax grab? And now the empty-house Hoovering in BC and Toronto?”

I support both these measures. Seems to me the empty house tax will help increase supply – and put some downward pressure on rents – even if modestly. Maybe even increase houses for sale.
The non-resident tax will help reduce the upward pressure on house prices (and likely rent too) which are still not affordable for the average Canadian. My assumption is the non-residents buying are wealthier than the average Canadian and thus can just come in an out compete Canadians.

Neither measure have worked. They are tax grabs, not policy initiatives. Increasing the tax on something does not make it cheaper. – Garth

#19 Canadian Soldier on 11.01.22 at 3:15 pm

Wild. The military is struggling worse than it has in 15 years. With postings obviously coming with market rate rentals, or home sales during market downturns, and the lightning 3.5% BOC raise, this is causing a lot of stress in the ranks. We are going to have to do more as a country for our military.
Thanks again for all of the advice along the years Sir.
Have a great day!

#20 Dave on 11.01.22 at 3:23 pm

Re #17 Parksville…

Houses have been sitting on the market there for months and people are starting to drop their prices. Also, they are building like crazy, so housing there has peaked. Also, if it got much more expensive, most people would’t retire there. There aren’t many amenities, etc. Rates will stay high well into 2023 and those who re list in spring are in for a surprise. Prices went up their 30 percent during the period where we had the lowest interest rates ever. That won’t happen again. Easy come, easy go.

#21 Polozi Scheme on 11.01.22 at 3:26 pm

All of the foreign buyers taxes, bans etc have had/will have no effect as always because there are very very few actual “foreign buyers”. There is however, a massive amount of “foreign money” buying Canadian real estate, by “new Canadians”.

You mean the people who are now Canadians? Like you? – Garth

#22 The General on 11.01.22 at 3:36 pm

#8- c.e.f. : I agree with what you said. Except your apparent lust for a recession and coming hardship for your fellow Canadians. How high is the perch you sit on?

#23 Elon Fanboy on 11.01.22 at 3:37 pm

“ In fact in the giant GTA (pop: 6,000,000) total sales were 45. Down 92%. Meanwhile condo sales also collapsed – by 89%.”

Hunger Games…..Realtor edition.

#24 The General on 11.01.22 at 3:43 pm

This 20% anti-Chinese tax sounds vaguely similar to a Chinese tax from long ago. How do today’s woke, liberal crowd justify it? Here’s how: Insert fingers in ears, and repeat lalalalalalala…until your head explodes, Ala Scanners.

#25 OK, Doomer on 11.01.22 at 4:00 pm

#17 Parksville Prankster on 11.01.22 at 3:07 pm
Meanwhile, while coffeeing it up with some of the blue rinse set out here, talk turned to real estate, natch, ‘cause it’s a cult out here here on the island.

The feeling on the street is that sales and prices will stay sticky for the winter, but come roaring back biggly in the spring.

Many are delisting to ride out the perceived dip, which they feel will inevitably end in upward prices, because everyone wants to retire here, and spend their Boomer Bucks on drywall and their Forever Home. /s

++++++++++++++++++++

And I thought mushroom season was over. You learn something new everyday!

#26 Scott in Gibsons on 11.01.22 at 4:01 pm

If you believe that foreign buyers had minimal impact on real estate prices it won’t affect the market if they are excluded.

Read the post. Not now. But the ban, many believe, will prolong the sales slump. – Garth

#27 Yorkville Renter on 11.01.22 at 4:03 pm

#2 – Cap’n, where in the GTA are you (approximately).

I’m seeing 6-figure discounts where I’m looking (Etobicoke)… still too high, but moving in the right direction.

#28 The General on 11.01.22 at 4:03 pm

This just in: the Associated Press and Washington Post confirm American “boots on the ground” in Ukraine. They are attempting to account for all the western weapons poured into the back hole over there. Good luck.

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 4:08 pm

@#16 Dave
“Mortgage broker? What training is needed for this? How to use a calculator?”

+++
Slightly more trained than a seal but infinitely more trained than a realtor.

Realtor qualifications:
The ability to hammer a sign into a lawn, staple a sign to a pole and unlock a door and step aside…..
Oh, and a course in ethics…..

Generalizations like that are beneath us all. Stop it. – Garth

#30 PERFECT STORM on 11.01.22 at 4:11 pm

PERFECT STORM
TOO MANY CONDOS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
INVESTORS HAVE FLED TO USA
BUY 10 TO 20 DEALS IN USA FOR EVERY DEAL IN CANADA
RISING RATES ARE KILLING PRICES
ALL THE KIDDOS HAVE MOVED BACK TO PARENT’S BASEMENTS
PEOPLE JUST WANT OUT OF DEBT AND HIGHER HOUSING COSTS
PEOPLE RUNNING WITH THEIR MONEY TO NORTHEASTERN USA AND FLORIDA

#31 IHCTD9 on 11.01.22 at 4:15 pm

Talking the other day to a BIL. He sold his rental house last year for ~700K, paid 140 for it early 2000’s. 2 units, tenants paid pretty much the whole mortgage. Stuffed his/wife’s RRSP’s to offset the CGT. Now planning his retirement date. Several of my in-laws have gov DBP’s and a couple even have the near extinct private sector DBP. All married, all dual income, all long time home(s) owners, nearly all white collar. Lots of income, lots of assets, near zero debt. Every single one planning an early exit date.

A lot has been talked about regarding the Boomers retiring. They have vastly differing fortunes and a different work ethic compared to all gens that came after. This is resulting in decades passing before they’re largely snuggled up out of the work force.

All my Gen X peers are bailing at 55, there just no bones about it. They’ve got the $ to do it too. Zero plans anywhere to work till 65, if they can swing 55, they’re doing it.

Gen X will vanish from the workforce in the blink of an eye compared to the Boomers IMHO. They had it much easier financially, and enjoyed most of the asset run-up as well. They definitely don’t like work as much as the Boomers do.

Hopefully the government is aware. Gen X is small, but they are some of the biggest spenders out there right now. The Mils don’t have much spare cash to blow despite their higher incomes. That big spending could all come to a very abrupt end.

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 4:15 pm

@#17 Parksville
“Meanwhile, while coffeeing it up with some of the blue rinse set out here, talk turned to real estate, natch, ‘cause it’s a cult out here here on the island.”
+++
I was in your neck of the woods a few weeks back.
Several things I noticed.
The town locks up at 7pm.
Lots of Blue Hairs out strolling.
The Vancouver Island Hotel was infested with Crackheads.
And right next door Fine Dining.
Kalvas has excellent fresh caught Halibut
The most Bizarre juxtaposition.

#33 Pat on 11.01.22 at 4:23 pm

Ah! You always bring a smile to my face with the humor :)

#34 Steven Rowlandson on 11.01.22 at 4:23 pm

A rise in the cost of the official currency to buy a home just forces people to face the reality of how stupid and genocidally high home prices really are.. That is a good thing. The truth is the right thing to find and act on even if it hurts. Low rates should have led to governments and other debtors refinancing and paying off their debts, but it didn’t. The debtors thought they could cheat and procrastinate until there is no decent way out now matters are worse, so now we need higher rates to correct the bad behavior of people and governments. In this the bankers are going to have to take a hard line even if it messes with the economy and jobs and causes a great depression.
Keynesianism has been tried and failed because it encouraged bad behavior. That being endless deficits, greed and malinvestment. Good behavior involves mental and physical work, thrift, paying down debt, not making life impossible for others and investing wisely in productive enterprises.

#35 I don’t know on 11.01.22 at 4:23 pm

#2 Captain Uppa on 11.01.22 at 2:23 pm

Correct. There aren’t any discounts for in-demand homes in in-demand areas.

I disagree with our host’s assertion that home prices have much impact on our country’s ability to attract top level talent.

First off, we’ve always been a country of poor immigrants, going back hundreds of years. It’s enriched us every time and now is no different. Many people fleeing violence and persecution couldn’t care less about the fact they won’t be able to buy a home in an urban centre right off the bat. Most immigrants are well aware that establishing themselves takes time.

Secondly, regardless of any misconceptions, it’s quite difficult to immigrate to Canada. Many countries have tried to emulate our points based immigration system and have fallen short.

We will be fine.

IDK

#36 TheDood on 11.01.22 at 4:29 pm

Despite the bans, taxes, Covid restrictions and barriers, housing affordability in Canada has only become worse, says RBC. If government actions can be judged by their outcomes, these constitute a giant fail. Every country in the world (except us) wants to attract talented, well-off people and a large number do so by allowing permanent stays along with a residential real estate purchase. Only time will reveal how this hurts us.
__________________________________

This is concerning. Our Government’s incompetency on full display for the world to see is a regular occurrence. I hope the voting public keeps these things in mind at the ballot box, after all, the gov’t is a reflection of who voted for them.

Our best and brightest are leaving, and potential investors have been driven away – no one wants to come and do business in Canada.

How about a reset with smaller government, less ‘service’, less incompetent fingers in our daily lives, less interference, less taxes, and less spending?

#37 The Gold Standard on 11.01.22 at 4:34 pm

“While offshore buyers never did move prices higher in any Canadian market, the virtual elimination of that money stream could mean Canadian housing equity stays depressed for longer, say the experts. After all, Canada’s message to the world is pretty clear: bug off.”

This statement is confusing to me. If offshore buyers never moved prices but eliminating those same buyers will keep prices depressed for longer, doesn’t that mean that those same buyers affected prices?

Didn’t a Fraser Institute report show that offshore buyers caused YVR house prices to increase by 5% ?

Foreign buying (the little that existed) vaporized during Covid, yet house prices skyrocketed. It’s a straw man argument. But the message Canada is sending out is unambiguous – and unnecessary. – Garth

#38 Steven Rowlandson on 11.01.22 at 4:35 pm

“The Trudeau Liberals have no end to the ideas on how to burn through taxpayer cash…..”

How about buy back government bonds and burn them to lower the cost of interest on government debt? Too simple? Then again, they would have to quit spending on other things…

#39 alexinvestor on 11.01.22 at 4:36 pm

Housing affordability has decreased despite house prices dropping because interest rates have increased. A bit of a catch-22 here. All levels of government that fed on the housing boom through taxes (ie transfer tax) and housing development fees are going to suffer revenue loss.

Also, the best countries don’t need to give visas (ie US , Switzerland, etc) for residential housing purchases (you don’t get a green card for buying a house). That reserved for not-so-great countries that need to lure capital. Having the money to buy a house is not a great indicator of the kind of people you might want to attract to Canada.

#40 Steven Rowlandson on 11.01.22 at 4:42 pm

“A lot has been talked about regarding the Boomers retiring.”

Quite a few of the boomers I know can’t afford to live in Canada let alone retire there even if they have a job.
Believe it or not the necessary 6 digit or better incomes are not universal. More likely they are the exception.

#41 Bob on 11.01.22 at 4:42 pm

It now ranks Canada as having the most xenophobic real estate regime in the world.

I’m sorry, Garth, but this simply isn’t true. A great many countries restrict foreign ownership or simply ban it outright.

#42 yvr_lurker on 11.01.22 at 4:44 pm

For those who chose to dispute Garth’s assertions regarding the zero effect of foreign buyers, of speculation taxes, or of empty homes taxes, you are just wasting your time and energy. Despite investigations by Andy Yan with real hard data (or what was available at the time) and others, Garth never chose to comment. Recently, it has been estimated that the BC spec tax brought out 20,000 units back into the rental market, most in the lower mainland….

https://twitter.com/Ayan604/status/1549972772612231169

I fail to see how one can say that this tax is not working in the way it was designed.

Of course, local buyers and local speculators driven by historically low interest rates were the major source of the fuel. However, there has been a clear effect of the influence of foreign buyers as documented by many sources (Yan is just one such source), and the condo market in many areas is estimated to have more than 10–15% foreign ownership.

No point in even discussing this issue because Garth is not interested in reading/commenting on anything that has a counter-narrative. No point in a discussion. I fully support the idea of banning foreign buyers in the residential market in Canada just like in New Zealand. The idea of full disclosure of beneficial ownership in BC for those circumventing the rules is long overdue. Full stop.

You and your maple neighbours made this market, not a trickle of foreign dudes. As for taxing people more who are doing something with their real estate that the state does not like is the perfect definition of government overreach. – Garth

#43 Wrk.dover on 11.01.22 at 4:49 pm

#3 Linda on 11.01.22 at 2:25 pm
One look was all it took to know that wherever today’s dog photo was, it was not in Canada! Snowflakes are falling where I’m at.
__________________________

Darken the water color and it could be here though.
https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ns-29_metric_e.html

#44 Lord Garth of Izar on 11.01.22 at 4:52 pm

DELETED (Anti-immigrant)

#45 The Gold Standard on 11.01.22 at 4:53 pm

Foreign buying (the little that existed) vaporized during Covid, yet house prices skyrocketed. – Garth

Yes that’s true. So what happened with foreign buyers during the 20 years before Covid ? Were they still a non issue? The evidence seems to say differently.

Nope. – Garth

#46 chalkie on 11.01.22 at 4:56 pm

With further policy tightening in the pipeline, the overnight swap market is now pricing a peak rate of 4.25 per cent by year-end, so this housing drawdown is just getting started. If the US Feds continue more aggressive rate hikes ( and they well) our BOC rate could go even higher in the new year.
Given consumers’ sensitivity to the pullback in real estate prices, Canada’s recession is likely to be deeper than what many Bay Street types are expecting and the Wall Street predictions have more dark clouds that have yet to break.

Regretting selling your home in 2019 and 2020, (you do not like the apartment or condo life) there is a good chance that you will once again have an opportunity to purchase that same home value equivalently back for the same price tag or perhaps a little less than you sold before the FOMO drove the prices skyward.

Your best deals will be sometime within the next twelve to eighteen months, it depends a lot on where you live in Canada.

Economists say, the biggest housing bubble in the world is popping and home prices in Canada are predicted to crash nationally by another 30% or more as the country slides into recession. It could be the early 1990s all over again, the pain, the pain.
When one predicts on a national level, this could mean reduced prices of 50% or more in some regions, while other regions of the country retain values better than others.

The longer the holdouts from listing hold, the lower the price will drop.

$1000,000.00 dollar home, rises in value 50%, ending value $1,500.000.00.
Same home dropping 50% in value, now worth $750,000.00
Liars can surely figure, but figures do not lie.

The home prices are dropping on the markets by the day, there is a lot of panic in the air right now and soon a lot of available condos and single-family homes will hit the market in early 2023. Another report: The Canadian housing market is still overpriced by 17%, looks like there will be a valley of reduced home sales signs to enter the market.

One report shows 17% drop in home prices to go, while another shows 30% more to drop in price, regardless of who is closest, that’s big bucks that will sting.

For the flippers on paper, they are stuck with a lot land transfer taxes to fork over before the attorney signs off, this alone will give them sleepless nights, then it is the big one, the cost of borrowing right now followed by daily Hydro, property taxes, water/sewer & security, there will few alternatives other then to sell at a loss, the foundation has eroded and the flippers are caught in the swamp.

The realtors promise to buy if it does not sell, not sure what is happening in that world, but I suspect it’s not a pretty picture for them right now.

RBC: The downturn in the real estate and financial markets means Canadians could see a total of $1.6 trillion in net wealth erased in the coming quarters, the bank said in a report released on Wednesday. While that will not wipe out all the estimated wealth gains made during the pandemic, it is already having a chilling effect on consumer spending.

Truth of the matter is, there are so many opinions on the so called experts, it pays not to listen to any of them, use your own common sense, you will be much better off.

Remember the old story: They are all liars except you and me, and sometimes I have my doubts about you.

Quote of the day: Money is a strange business. People who do not have it, aim for it strongly. People who have it are full of troubles.

#47 Shawn on 11.01.22 at 4:57 pm

Slow New Home Sales but can I have more detail?

Guess how many newly-constructed houses were sold in 416 during September? Zero. In fact in the giant GTA (pop: 6,000,000) total sales were 45. Down 92%.

*****************************
I see the source of this is here:

https://www.bildgta.ca/

Can someone dig into that and tell us what is meant by the sale of a newly-constructed home?

Does that mean only spec homes that were completed and then offered for sale?

If someone signs a contract in September for a new home that will be finished next year is that a September 2022 sale?

I’m just curious. I get that the main message is that not much is moving at all.

#48 Shawn on 11.01.22 at 5:05 pm

Every ill-wind blows someone some good.

A guy from Newfoundland made that observation to me this Summer.

When a hurricane comes in a bunch of restoration type companies and clean-up services do a booming business. Sellers of chainsaws benefit. Hotels in the area do a booming business.

In the case of a crashing Toronto home prices a lot of buyers are going to benefit at some point. If affordability is not better yet, it will be at some point.

And think of cash buyers. That may be unusual but it happens. Houses are definitely already more affordable for cash buyers as mortgage rates don’t apply.

If 90,000 mostly condos are going to come onto a market with few buyers then those willing or needing to buy are going to get a bargain.

It’s all entertainment to most of us. Especially, those of us in Alberta.

#49 TS on 11.01.22 at 5:05 pm

“Is this a supply disaster rolling towards the entire market with the ability to overwhelm demand and crush prices for years?”

People are funny. All we heard about for several years is that the root of the affordability crisis is not enough houses. Well of course there wasn’t enough houses for every GTA dweller to take their HELOC and multiply their individual housing demand by 300%. Remove investors and all of the sudden oversupply is the concern. Seems kinda obvious then that the problem isn’t a lack of available housing but rather how the available housing stock is used.

#50 Quintilian on 11.01.22 at 5:18 pm

“This comes atop the 20% anti-Chinese tax (what it really is, after all)”

That’s just crazy talk.

It’s not a racist tax.

It applies to all foreign buyers, and may countries have restrictions on foreign investors/speculators/ money launderers.

Law enforcement, journalists, investigators with volumes of evidence, all point out that Canada is a haven for money laundering and real estate is a very efficient conduit.

I know what’s coming…..I’m a racists, right Garth?

The BC tax is aimed at China. – Garth

#51 Reality is stark on 11.01.22 at 5:38 pm

They won, you lost.
They goosed the housing market and fortified their pension plans and brought in a bunch of WOKE policies and abrogated any responsibility in regards to reducing the government cost structure.
They just needed to bank on the fact that you would be stupid enough to vote for them long enough to pull this stunt off.
They just went with the thought process that the average Canadian is stupid enough to allow the hoodwinking.
That they got right.
If you were one of the idiots who voted liberal, enjoy the coming economic pain, you deserve it.

Conservatives brought in 0% down and 40-year mortgages, as well as making RRSPs available for house purchases. Keep your perspective. – Garth

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 5:53 pm

@#40 Steve R
“Believe it or not the necessary 6 digit or better incomes are not universal. More likely they are the exception.”

+++
I knew I was exceptional.
:)

#53 under the radar on 11.01.22 at 5:57 pm

If rates are not meaningfully lower by the time those 90k units are ready to close get ready for a tidal wave of defaults.

#54 The General on 11.01.22 at 6:05 pm

Saad bin Kabbi, who is CEO of QatarEnergy, told Bloomburg it may redirect it’s E.U. gas supply to other states if deemed appropriate. He said “Nothing is permanent, and we have the right to do whatever we want with volumes (of gas)”. He added that the decision of E.U. countries to cap oil and gas prices will destroy the market. Is Qatar the next boogeyman on the west’s naughty list? Or maybe a color revolution is in order?

#55 Linda on 11.01.22 at 6:09 pm

#43 ‘Wrk’ – there are some gorgeous sandy beaches in Canada, true.

#17 ‘Parksville’ – actually don’t want to live in BC, though it is nice to visit. If winter escapes beckon, would happily rent a place for a month or two, as also have no desire to own a ‘recreational property’. Too much hassle for too little return. With so many places one could visit, why limit oneself?

#56 Søren Angst on 11.01.22 at 6:09 pm

#31 IHCTD9

Depends where you live. You are being broad brush with your observations. Unsubstantiated nationally.

2019 Net Worth from StatCan. RE & other numbers.

Age group 45 to 54 years. 2.762 million households/people total. Median $ values.

Canada
RE Principal Residence + Other $460,000
Mortgage Debt $197,000
Net Worth $521,100

Atlantic
RE Principal Residence + Other $240,000
Mortgage Debt $120,000
Net Worth $395,000

Calgary
RE Principal Residence + Other $500,000
Mortgage Debt $260,000
Net Worth $624,500

Vancouver
RE Principal Residence + Other $950,000
Mortgage Debt $300,000
Net Worth $757,000

Toronto
RE Principal Residence + Other $900,000
Mortgage Debt $360,000
Net Worth $840,300

Manitoba
RE Principal Residence + Other $425,000
Mortgage Debt $241,400
Net Worth $386,200

Montréal
RE Principal Residence + Other $360,000
Mortgage Debt $162,000
Net Worth $351,200

———–

Since 2019, there has been a considerable erosion in Net Worth (me ragging on Trudeau claims of putting money in people’s pockets Tweet):

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1586069003344101376

45-54 yrs old Net Worth LOSS, 1st Qtr to 2nd Qtr 2022, Canada = $221,362 (-5.8%)

———–

Other 45-54 yrs old data, 2020 Tax Brackets. 4,510,380 tax filers Total, rounding:

$46,605 or less = 51% of Total
$46,605 – $93,208 = 33%
$93,208 – $144,489 = 10%
$144,489 – $205,842 = 2.9%
$205,842 or more = 2.5%

Canada ALL with a company pension plan, 45-54 yrs old = 57%.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1110001601
https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/cra-arc/prog-policy/stats/itstb-sipti/2018/tbl04-en.pdf
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610066001

————————-

I would say BIL in a different economic class and not representative of Canada GenX by in large (probably lives in Toronto or Vancouver … maybe Calgary).

#57 Dragonfly58 on 11.01.22 at 6:12 pm

The other means that a good many properties were paid for in Canada was { pre legalization } as grow – ops. I live in the Fraser Valley , 5 – 20 years ago there were MANY. People were not concerned by what they had to pay for a property as the no tax income / profit margin, was to say the least substantial. In my fringe rural / urban area the authorities simply could not keep up and eventually backed off investigating unless there were several complaints from neighbors regarding the smell.

#58 IHCTD9 on 11.01.22 at 6:18 pm

#35 I don’t know on 11.01.22 at 4:23 pm

“Many people fleeing violence and persecution couldn’t care less about the fact they won’t be able to buy a home in an urban centre right off the bat. Most immigrants are well aware that establishing themselves takes time.

The vast majority of immigrants coming to Canada are not fleeing violence and persecution, they are here looking for a better life in a Western society. Economic immigrants are the meat and potatoes of our immigration system, not refugees. The Libs actually just announced that they will be cutting back on taking in refugees.

Don’t kid yourself, owning a home is just as important to immigrants as it is to us domestic folks – probably even more so. The lengths many of them go to in order to do it are well documented including living 15 to a house, renting out every possible space, working 2-3 jobs, mortgage fraud, tax evasion, exploitation of new arrivals, the list goes on. They absolutely would like to own a house come hell or high water.

“Secondly, regardless of any misconceptions, it’s quite difficult to immigrate to Canada. Many countries have tried to emulate our points based immigration system and have fallen short.”

I like our points system, and it gets us the best because you’re right – it ain’t easy. But, read up on the international student Visa. At this point, anyone with 30K to pay an “immigration consultant”, tuition at a private strip mall diploma mill, and is 35 or under – is in like Flynn. 450,000 students arrived in 2021 (a record), 400K in 2019 (the previous record) before the pandemic. Many are exploited from one end of the system to the other, but in the end, they will get PR. Trudeau just eliminated the 20 hr/wk cap. There is no other country on the planet easier to immigrate to these days than Canada using the ISV system. Just be young, and have $$$. Our labour shortage is in the jobs these folks will do that us Canucks will not – and it was plainly said as much when the 20hr/wk cap was removed. The fact is, all things taken into account, we can’t get them in here fast enough to feed certain industries, that’s why we make it easy.

#59 Nonplused on 11.01.22 at 6:22 pm

“Meanwhile, have governments really messed up with the worst possible timing on their anti-foreign-dude tax grab? And now the empty-house Hoovering in BC and Toronto?”

Of course they have. Modern governments always do exactly the wrong thing at precisely the wrong time.

It stems from the fact that we elect a bunch of unqualified amateurs to make important decisions about complicated issues of which they know nothing. Really, we couldn’t expect much more. The simple solutions they propose sound good to the uneducated. Unfortunately, in the modern world we are all uneducated about almost everything, except maybe the specialized area in which we were educated and work.

Hmm, what else to comment on today…. oh these:

“You see, interest rate increases may pause in early 2023 as inflation falters” – ha ha. Winter is coming along with the biggest energy crisis in a generation. Or more.

“China drops zero-Covid” – Who says they are going to do that? And why?

“Trump is indicted” – Well sure. But you can indict a ham sandwich. There is no “there” there. And even if there was, what would it matter at this point? He’s out of office. All he is doing now is campaigning for Republican candidates in the midterms. It’s too late to stop the red wave now. After that he probably retires.
He’s getting old.

“and Russia gives up” – Gives up what, exactly? The Donbas? Ok, then it goes back to being independent. Ukraine did not control the Donbas or Crimea before the war, and they won’t control it after either. Ukraine was never what one might call “stable” before the 2014 coup, it permanently fractured after. Humpty Dumpty has fallen from his wall.

“but mortgage rates are staying high. And at the end of the day, that’s all the housing market cares about, even as financial markets restore.” – yes they are. Because inflation will stay high. Remember, Dec. 5th is the day that Italy can no longer import refined products made with Russian oil into the US, and Freeport is almost ready to go back online too. Plus the strategic reserves are at a generational low. And winter is coming.

Maybe we get a relatively warm winter in North America and Europe. Could save the day. But if not, best to start saving for those energy bills now.

And don’t think that a smaller version of what happened in Texas couldn’t happen in Alberta too. We also have too much wind power, and the gas storage situation is a right mess. Combine that with the freeze-offs that happen every winter, and the possibility is there that Alberta goes partially offline for exports for a couple of weeks. The situation is not nearly as bad as Texas, but not all that great either.

——————————-

Here is a thought experiment (not original). There are two competing schools of thought as to what Russia-Gate was all about. Most people believe one or the other.

If you watch CNN, Trump is obviously a Russian asset and a threat to national security.

If you watch Fox, there was a deep state conspiracy to discredit Trump with false accusations.

So what actually happened? Probably neither. Yup, that classic case where there is a third option black & white thinkers cannot envision.

#60 Søren Angst on 11.01.22 at 6:22 pm

IF …

JPMorgan: The S&P 500 could surge 10% in just one day if the Fed does these two things tomorrow
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-p-500-could-surge-183000058.html

1. Central bank raises interest rates by just 50 basis points and

2. Fed Chair Jerome Powell expresses his willingness to tolerate inflation and tight labor market conditions/

Unlikely.

Then again, BoC caved to covert Political Manipulation. Maybe the US Fed will to and not covert at all, in your face?

Elizabeth Warren to Jerome Powell: Just how many jobs do you plan to kill?
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/01/economy/warren-powell-fed-job-losses/index.html

[In a letter sent Monday to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Democratic senators expressed concern about the Fed’s plan to continue raising interest rates at an “alarming pace” and Powell’s “disturbing warning to American families” that they should expect pain in the coming months.]

—————–

Expect the Unexpected post Covid.

Just in case, I used one of my Oct “yeah oil” dividend payments on an after hours BUY for more “yeah oil”.

Fingers crossed.

#61 NOSTRADAMUS on 11.01.22 at 6:30 pm

“I WAS WRONG.”
Come back Nostradamus, all is forgiven. On numerous occasions, okay, too many occasions, I have warned that with the withdrawal of liquidity tears the size of horse b*lls will fall. And lo, my prophesy was repeatedly dismissed as Doomsterism time and again. It has been suggested that a good way to discredit Nosradamus is to have him pee in a bottle before any of his comments are published. New point. Echoing prior words. There is one rule of thumb that has served me well over the years, when I am wrong, I will be the first to say, “I was wrong.” A strange trait to have in this ,”I am never wrong world.” I write articles not as someone on the peak looking down, but as someone on the trail looking up.

#62 Penny Henny on 11.01.22 at 6:32 pm

DELETED (Abusive, confrontational)

#63 Penny Henny on 11.01.22 at 6:34 pm

Except Faron is the oversteer guy going in circles(on this blog of course)

#64 IHCTD9 on 11.01.22 at 6:39 pm

#40 Steven Rowlandson on 11.01.22 at 4:42 pm
“A lot has been talked about regarding the Boomers retiring.”

Quite a few of the boomers I know can’t afford to live in Canada let alone retire there even if they have a job.
Believe it or not the necessary 6 digit or better incomes are not universal. More likely they are the exception.
———-

That was my point. The boomers have healthy representations in all segments of the income range from fabulously wealthy to completely broke. Gen X and the Mils are not the same. Hence some boomers will retire fabulously early, while many others will die working. Also some will opt to keep working even though they don’t need to (different attitude towards work, eg. Garth). Therefore the time it will take for the Boomer Gen to fully retire (and start spending less) is decades.

#65 Penny Henny on 11.01.22 at 6:41 pm

#18 The Great Gazoo on 11.01.22 at 3:11 pm
“Meanwhile, have governments really messed up with the worst possible timing on their anti-foreign-dude tax grab? And now the empty-house Hoovering in BC and Toronto?”

I support both these measures. Seems to me the empty house tax will help increase supply – and put some downward pressure on rents – even if modestly. Maybe even increase houses for sale.
The non-resident tax will help reduce the upward pressure on house prices (and likely rent too) which are still not affordable for the average Canadian. My assumption is the non-residents buying are wealthier than the average Canadian and thus can just come in an out compete Canadians.

Neither measure have worked. They are tax grabs, not policy initiatives. Increasing the tax on something does not make it cheaper. – Garth
/////////////

It can for those who do not have to pay the tax.

And what do you mean by the worst possible timing? That prices might go down?

#66 Søren Angst on 11.01.22 at 6:44 pm

Negative β

In the last couple of days the DOW has gone down a bit each day (-0.24% today).

Me instead, ETFs/ETN:

+0.6% to +2%

today (yesterday about the same).

——————-

For once, you CAN win for losing.

Crazy Mr. Market .

AND Garth I watched it EVERY DAY in October and SAVORED EACH moment.

If I had listened to you I would have missed out on watching the 2nd greatest monthly gain, excluding unregulated years, in DOW history.

The ONLY time I have not taken your advice Garth – not even I am that brazen.

#67 Parksville Prankster on 11.01.22 at 6:44 pm

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 4:15 pm
@#17 Parksville
“Meanwhile, while coffeeing it up with some of the blue rinse set out here, talk turned to real estate, natch, ‘cause it’s a cult out here here on the island.”
+++
“I was in your neck of the woods a few weeks back.
Several things I noticed.
The town locks up at 7pm.
Lots of Blue Hairs out strolling.
The Vancouver Island Hotel was infested with Crackheads.
And right next door Fine Dining.
Kalvas has excellent fresh caught Halibut
The most Bizarre juxtaposition.“

++++

You must have come into town on either Pickle Ball, or Lawrence Welk nights… two things that clear our demographic out of the core faster than rain, Bingo, or a sale at the Fields Store.

#68 Jason on 11.01.22 at 6:52 pm

Conservatives brought in 0% down and 40-year mortgages, as well as making RRSPs available for house purchases. Keep your perspective. – Garth
——————————————–

Be careful – the “government is inherently evil and / or incompetent” folks are going to pile on. People have no perspective.

#69 IHCTD9 on 11.01.22 at 7:13 pm

#42 yvr_lurker on 11.01.22 at 4:44 pm
For those who chose to dispute Garth’s assertions regarding the zero effect of foreign buyers, of speculation taxes, or of empty homes taxes, you are just wasting your time and energy
——

I agree with a lot of your posts. I believe you see the RE dumpster fire in Canada from a BC tinted lens. Out here in Ontario (the tint I see through), the problem is speculation. Greed. Like G says, housing shot through the roof – even here in my drumlin blistered backwater – during the Pandemic and foreign buyer taxes. I assure you, zero foreign buyers own anything out here. Most local buys were specuvestors from the GTA who couldn’t afford anything out there, so they bought out here thinking the gta market and our hillbilly market worked the same (lol).

They are getting an education right now, and it’s a painful one – and a permanent one. It’s a small area, and we all know who the buyers were. I even listened into a City Hall meeting where this was discussed. The buyers were from the gta, and near zero of them moved in. All put up for rent. We grew up with the local realtors, we know the actual situation.

Out in BC, foreign buyers are likely much more prevalent, but Canada wide, it just ain’t so. Out in the Maritimes, they will instantly point at us Ontarians for cranking their prices. Small towns out there too. In the prairies and PQ, they might have never even noticed the bubble.

#70 Penny Henny on 11.01.22 at 7:15 pm

#62 Penny Henny on 11.01.22 at 6:32 pm
DELETED (Abusive, confrontational)
////////////////

Hmmf?
That’s abusive?
Learn something new every day.
Carry on.

#71 jess on 11.01.22 at 7:18 pm

nudging?

…”Canada’s landmark efforts to implement reforms to stop criminals and sanctioned oligarchs from moving money through secretive shell companies may falter without substantial buy-in from the country’s provinces and territories, a new report warns.Canadian authorities are preparing to collect ownership information of companies registered in the country, a key way to strip criminals of secretive shell companies they rely on.But a new Transparency International Canada report calls out Canadian provinces and territories — where the vast majority of Canadian companies are incorporated — for rarely even collecting basic shareholder data.The report found that provinces and territories often keep information hidden from the public, and almost never take steps to verify the accuracy of company information that they do collect
Cohen of Transparency International Canada said that, in its efforts to create the federal corporate registry, the Canadian federal government is not forcing provinces and territories to collect and report beneficial ownership data that could feed into a national registry. Instead, federal authorities are trying to convince provinces and territories to voluntarily join the federal push to collect beneficial ownership information. These efforts have not yet yielded solid commitments from Canada’s largest provinces like Ontario and Alberta, Cohen said, although the discussions appear to be continuing.

Cohen said that British Columbia might become what he calls an “early adopter” of a beneficial ownership registry after a provincial commission recommended establishing one earlier this year.

=========
Switzerland aims to track corporate ownership in attempt to curb money-laundering

Facing international pressure to shed light on shadowy corporate ownership, government plans to reveal who actually owns legal entities.
By Dean Starkman

#72 Wrk.dover on 11.01.22 at 7:25 pm

#55 Linda on 11.01.22 at 6:09 pm
#43 ‘Wrk’ – there are some gorgeous sandy beaches in Canada, true.
___________________________

Well, Linda; I was pumping the weather report. The shoreline of Yarmouth County is kind of gross relative to the big picture. Mavillette is the nearest nice beach there.

#73 Tribal Ideology on 11.01.22 at 7:31 pm

Since Faron, Observer and a few other now insist that if a lunatic who might claim to be a member of some tribe or other commits a heinous act then all members of the tribe must be guilty of something (belonging to an evil tribe I suppose? Being wannabe mass murderers?) , then might I remind them of the Steve Scalise shooting, the attack on Rand Paul, the attempted assassination of Justice Kavanaugh and I could go on and on.

Seems maybe you all should reconsider your ideology. That’s how you say it should work, right?

Or maybe just recognize that there are mentally ill people of all persuasions, and their actions only reflect on them.

They are stirred up by hysterical claims made by other tribes, such as claiming half of an entire country are white supremacist Nazis.

The violence we have seen so far is nothing compared to what we will see if tribal leaders don’t stop dehumanizing their political opponents.

Those cheering them on will also share the blame.

#74 IHCTD9 on 11.01.22 at 7:52 pm

6:09 pm
#31 IHCTD9

I would say BIL in a different economic class and not representative of Canada GenX by in large (probably lives in Toronto or Vancouver … maybe Calgary).
———

BIL lives in KW Ontario. Of course, I am speaking wrt my personal peer group. Family, friends, co-workers etc… but it is near ubiquitous. BIL does not have a great hhi, but banked huge on RE which is a Gen X stronghold as much as it is for the boomers. Gen X bought cheap, and sold high, the last to ever do so. Gen X were also the first to have 2 career incomes powering life more often than not. Investing was becoming mainstream. Family of only 4-5 most times. In my case, lots of public employees with golden pensions, in a couple cases – two of them.

Personally, I don’t know a single Gen X who married dual income (everyone is), didn’t divorce, and bought a house who is in bad shape. None of these folks make 6 figures individually. None live in the GTA/GVRD. It’s that one-two punch. Dual incomes + cheap but rising RE, served up at a time when rates were tanking. Not to mention most are small town Ontarians so they bought in 20 years ago for less than 200K. Often, much less.

My youngest sibling is a Mil. Different ballgame for her.

#75 Catalyst on 11.01.22 at 8:06 pm

Garth surely you don’t believe this stuff. You lay out the impending apocalypse and expect gov’t to sit idly by? They are already trotting out increased immigration targets and we haven’t even started the decline in earnest. If the market does freeze up, there will be swift and outrageous intervention as gov’t views it as their role to solve every problem nowadays.

#76 Old Boot on 11.01.22 at 8:21 pm

#73 Tribal Ideology on 11.01.22 at 7:31 pm

Since Faron, Observer and a few other now insist that if a lunatic who might claim to be a member of some tribe or other commits a heinous act then all members of the tribe must be guilty of something (belonging to an evil tribe I suppose? Being wannabe mass murderers?) , then might I remind them of the Steve Scalise shooting, the attack on Rand Paul, the attempted assassination of Justice Kavanaugh and I could go on and on.

Seems maybe you all should reconsider your ideology. That’s how you say it should work, right?

Or maybe just recognize that there are mentally ill people of all persuasions, and their actions only reflect on them.

They are stirred up by hysterical claims made by other tribes, such as claiming half of an entire country are white supremacist Nazis.

The violence we have seen so far is nothing compared to what we will see if tribal leaders don’t stop dehumanizing their political opponents.

Those cheering them on will also share the blame.

———-

Very true.

I guess since cross-dressing is a very common fetish amongst serial and mass murderers – see Colonel Russell Williams, BTK, Marceline Harvey, Dana Rivers et al – all cross-dressers are serial killers.

I didn’t make the rules…

#77 the Jaguar on 11.01.22 at 8:33 pm

@#53 under the radar on 11.01.22 at 5:57 pm
If rates are not meaningfully lower by the time those 90k units are ready to close get ready for a tidal wave of defaults. +++

Rates will only go lower if inflation goes lower. The Taylor Rule rules. What are the odds on that given the current geo-political shennigans? The Minsky Moment approaches with many applications and outcomes.

Wonder how many of those 90k units involve assignment of sales (?). Taxation via capital gain, business income, or maybe just make a run for the exits.

#78 the Jaguar on 11.01.22 at 8:35 pm

shennigans>>>>>>>>>>> shenanigans!

#79 Quintilian on 11.01.22 at 8:36 pm

Hey Crowdie, and IHCTD9,
Learn and remember who is mostly responsible for the housing bubble.

The market was about to correct and then:

Conservatives brought in 0% down and 40-year mortgages, as well as making RRSPs available for house purchases. Keep your perspective. – Garth

Also, since you are both politicos:
Your comments are requested on the new immigration targets announced today.

I say:
Your Pepe is toast.

If he opposes it, he will be seen as a nationalist, populist anti-immigrant, cheap Trump imitation, If he doesn’t oppose it he will bleed a lot of the nutbars to Maxime Bernier.

Liberal/NDP for the rest of the decade.

#80 I don’t know on 11.01.22 at 8:38 pm

“Re the school workers about to strike: DB pensions and 121 days a year of paid (90%) sick leave plus wages already higher than any other province. Now the union wants a 33% increase over three years. The Ontario government is showing backbone in its guardianship of public funds. Is that not worthy of support? – Garth”

-Yes they deserve the raise, some dignity, and a meagre DB pension.

Circumventing the bargaining process by forcing the acceptance of a contract, and the stripping of the basic right to strike through intimidation is not worthy of any support whatsoever.

Not in this province, and not in this country.

Many of those workers make 40-50k year and don’t get paid through those summer months. Hardly lavish. Many are borderline poverty stricken.

Attacking education workers, whether they are childhood educators or teachers, is not a noble cause. Disincentivizing people through low pay leads to burnout. One need only look at our hospital situation in Ontario to see how poor these policies work out.

IDK

Shutting schools is not a basic human right. You have lost your way. – Garth

#81 Flop… on 11.01.22 at 8:54 pm

Flop Drops.

Just getting confirmation it was only some old rubble under the Burnaby Halloween Special I put up last night, with the big mound in the middle of an empty lot, no dead bodies, Jimmy Hoffa is still missing.

Burnaby is one of the few cities that make up the mirage that is Greater Vancouver, that is actually still positive year over year.

This house that I’m gonna show is still up on Zolo and is the cheapest listing in the city, but it didn’t touch ask, or assessed.

The details…

3890 GARDEN GROVE DRIVE, Burnaby.

Original ask1.42

Assessment 1.32

Just sold for 1.2

So unlike the last one that went for 1.1, this on you can actually live in and don’t have to pitch a tent on an empty lot.

These guys are not alone, they wanted what the market would have gladly given them but a few short months back.

The market is currently having what is best described as a Hall & Oates moment.

The sellers are singing Say It Isn’t So, as loud as they can.

The buyers are humming along to I Can’t Go For That…

M48BC

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2732120/3890-GARDEN-GROVE-DRIVE-Burnaby-BC/

I can’t go for that…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccenFp_3kq8

Say it isn’t so…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_R5xIdXwNMk

#82 Søren Angst on 11.01.22 at 9:05 pm

#74 IHCTD9

Good you figured out that you have an elite peer group but sadly, it is not representative of Canada’s GenX.

Recall and in Statistics you need a sample size of at least 30 for a normal distribution; otherwise, your observations are statistically INSIGNIFICANT.

The data I provided you is taken from a sample size that ranges from 2.8 to 4.5 million.

Your peer group sample size is?

For the heck of it and since I can slice/dice a StatCan database like nobody you know, some more data, 2019, 45 to 54 years, Median $:

Ontario
RE Principal Residence + Other $700,000
Mortgage Debt $207,000
Net Worth $755,600

Saskatchewan
RE Principal Residence + Other $350,000
Mortgage Debt $165,000
Net Worth $488,700

And for the heck of it …

Ottawa-Gatineau, Ontario/Quebec
RE Principal Residence + Other $400,000
Mortgage Debt $207,800
Net Worth $773,700

Nova Scotia
RE Principal Residence + Other $262,000
Mortgage Debt $118,000
Net Worth $449,000

Edmonton, Alberta
RE Principal Residence + Other $420,000
Mortgage Debt $240,000
Net Worth $440,600

Prince Edward Island
RE Principal Residence + Other $230,000
Mortgage Debt $116,300
Net Worth $277,500

———————-

Yours is an elite peer group wealth wise.

But NOT representative of GenX across Canada.

And no, I’m not doing the Mills.

#83 Ed on 11.01.22 at 9:07 pm

Sales in Calgary are off by 15% in October but my mortgage broker son in law has already made close to 1/2 of my net worth so far this year.

#84 Linda on 11.01.22 at 9:07 pm

#72 ‘Wrk’ – we are fond of Hirtle’s, Crescent & Risser’s beaches in NS; Long Beach near Tofino is also well worth the time. Haven’t been to the Maritimes during winter but have heard it is very chilly/damp.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 9:17 pm

6pm News
More than 10,000 over dose deaths in the last 7 years in BC.

70% of the overdose victims had visited a Health Care professional in the 3 months before their deaths.

30% of the overdose victims had visited health care professional 10 TIMES in 2 years before their death.

Another report that will do nothing.

Paramedics quitting.
Doctors leaving.
Nurses on stress leave.

Gong show.

P,S.
Rising interest rates?
Canadians now have the most Credit Card debt in our country’s history….

#86 Søren Angst on 11.01.22 at 9:20 pm

Specifically I can say this from the data for GenX that the

RE Specuvestors

reside in

Toronto
Vancouver

The number for “RE Principal Residence + Other” where

“Other”

represents 1 or more RE properties EXCLUDING a Principal Residence. Note those 2 cities have an UNUSUALLY HIGH RE asset value vs. other cities or Provinces.

Like near DOUBLE in most cases.

For those of you that like to beat up on RE Specuvestors, well, now you know that you will be beating up on Cdns that reside(s) in

Trauma

and the

Raincouver.

#87 Mikey on 11.01.22 at 9:33 pm

DELETED

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 9:53 pm

To further confirm the irrelevance of the Olympics.

Breakdancing….is an Olympic sport…

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiev9ijsI77AhXmGDQIHRFrC7AQFnoECBAQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ispo.com%2Fen%2Ftrends%2Fbreakdance-becomes-olympic-sport-2024-olympics-paris%23%3A~%3Atext%3DAt%2520the%25202024%2520Olympics%2520in%2Curban%2520style%2520of%2520the%2520Bronx.&usg=AOvVaw2nhr21i_xcmYR2VQSkL97U

I’d rather watch the 1908 Olympics when Tug of War was an olympic event…….

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 10:00 pm

Garth.
Thanks for still providing free financial advice for the unwashed, unappreciative, indebted, angry, proletariat.

You blog is a rare , advertisement free, place where we get to vent our non politically correct spleens and risk being Deleted or Banned.

A true diamond in the rough.

Thanks for your patience.

#90 Doug t on 11.01.22 at 10:02 pm

FOMO, COVID, and the constant poison that is Canada’s real estate industry will bring this country to its knees – will we survive?

#91 Sail Away on 11.01.22 at 10:33 pm

#73 Tribal Ideology on 11.01.22 at 7:31 pm

Since [some blogdogs] now insist that if a lunatic who might claim to be a member of some tribe or other commits a heinous act then all members of the tribe must be guilty of something (belonging to an evil tribe I suppose? Being wannabe mass murderers?)

—————

Just ignore. It is a manifestation of compulsive obsessive need for attention where any response, even negative, feeds a desperate and deeply embedded craving for validation. It’s a common disorder amongst partially-formed adults whose parents may have been distant and/or more in love with substances than with their own kids. Sad, yes, and unfortunate… but probably unfixable at this stage. Poor upbringing.

#92 yvr_lurker on 11.01.22 at 10:35 pm

As for taxing people more who are doing something with their real estate that the state does not like is the perfect definition of government overreach. – Garth
————
So it seems that implicitly you do agree that the empty homes tax has released into the market many rentals that would otherwise not be available. Is this correct?

Gov’t over-reach and the definition of it is a subjective issue and everyone has their own definition. For you, it is over-reach if the Gov’t “forces” through taxation speculators to rent their empty condos. However, you were perfectly fine with the idea that the Gov’t imposes vaccine mandates and all sorts of travel restrictions and no questioning of this is allowed. For me, I was okay with some of it, but my view was it was Gov’t over-reach not to enforce that every public sector worker is doubly vaccinated, that every trucker crossing the border is vaccinated (long after the threat had passed), and that we all have to use arrivecan until a few weeks ago. That was over-reach for me.

Equating a once-in-a-century global pandemic and public health emergency with dictating property usage says a lot about you. – Garth

#93 yvr_lurker on 11.01.22 at 10:49 pm

Equating a once-in-a-century global pandemic and public health emergency with dictating property usage says a lot about you. – Garth
——–

I guess we should not be able to question or critique anything that comes either from the Gov’t or from you. I’m done.

Just try to be logical. It works. – Garth

#94 James on 11.01.22 at 10:54 pm

“Maybe. While offshore buyers never did move prices higher in any Canadian market”

This statement has already been shot down by the BC Supreme court and the court ruling comes as no surprise to anyone living in Vancouver. Here is what the BC supreme court had to say on the impact of foreign buyers in Vancouver.

““The view that foreign nationals significantly contributed to the escalation of prices of housing in the GVRD is neither a stereotype nor a continuation of racist policies from the past,” ruled Bowden on October 25, 2019. “The experts have agreed that the inflow of foreign capital has significantly contributed to price increases in the GVRD.”
https://biv.com/article/2021/06/foreign-buyers-tax-upheld-not-discriminatory-bc-court-appeal

Curious. Then why did taxing, banning and discriminating against non-maple buyers do zip to lower prices? – Garth

#95 DON on 11.01.22 at 11:22 pm

#11 Earlybird on 11.01.22 at 2:51 pm
Air B and B is a scurge and shouldnt exist.
Foreign buying shouldnt be allowed and am in agreement with this policy.
Big standoff between buyers and sellers….who blinks first?

**********

The theme song to The Good The Bad and The Ugly comes to mind.

#96 yvr_lurker on 11.01.22 at 11:30 pm

Curious. Then why did taxing, banning and discriminating against non-maple buyers do zip to lower prices? – Garth
—–

Okay, let’s be logical. Prices were coming down significantly in YVR in late 2018–March 2020, despite the lowish interest rates, but likely due to the BC Gov’t policies to curb speculation. However, when the BofC over-reaches and sends interest rates to the lowest level in the history of Canada within a short time after COVID, it completely negates any benefit in pricing that would have occurred without the pandemic. People smallowed epic debit with epic risk, and spreading the real-estate contagion of overpricing to rural BC as people fled the cities.

Gov’t over-reach was to send the interest rate to near zero. Perfect example of how economics is not a controlled experiment, i.e. let the taxes due their work, keep interest rates fixed, wait awhile, watch speculation decrease from locals and foreigners, watch pricing of houses decrease over a period of a few years. We never got that chance to see anything like a controlled experiment.

#97 Barbara Frum on 11.01.22 at 11:30 pm

Here’s an amazing interview that Barbara Frum had with Manson Family member Sandra Good. Too bad we don’t seem to have interviewers this talented anymore.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-friday-edition-1.4201433/as-it-happened-the-archive-edition-the-fightin-words-episode-part-i-1.4201435

For extra fun, see if you notice any similarities between the ideology of the Manson family and popular modern movements today. Or maybe even someone who posts here often.

Then decide if everyone who shares that ideology should be ashamed to be ‘associated with’ the Manson family ideology.

#98 Val on 11.01.22 at 11:43 pm

Foreign investors are still around at least in GTA. Friends recently both a house from a Chinese national that is owning 5 houses in Durham region. He could not make a profit of them any more since RE is going down so he sold them all. They did not vaporize from COVID. Just took a PR card and are “business owners” now.

#99 Faron on 11.02.22 at 12:17 am

#91 Sail Away on 11.01.22 at 10:33 pm
#76 Old Boot on 11.01.22 at 8:21 pm
#73 Tribal Ideology on 11.01.22 at 7:31 pm

Wow, you are really stuck here. Lemme help you: nope. For the umpteenth time, nope.

I illustrated what some of the ingredients in the festering stew are, but that doesn’t mean those ingredients are, themselves, festering. I mean, a carrot in a stew with a skein of green mould may be perfectly edible and mould free. It’s in the carrot’s best interest to vacate said stew unless it wants to be overcome by slime growing on the rancid turnips by associative mingling.

Hey, congrats tho, at least you are recognizing my postulated tribe. I see distinct differences among the members even if you see them as a homogeneous mash.

#100 DON on 11.02.22 at 12:19 am

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 4:15 pm
@#17 Parksville
“Meanwhile, while coffeeing it up with some of the blue rinse set out here, talk turned to real estate, natch, ‘cause it’s a cult out here here on the island.”
+++
I was in your neck of the woods a few weeks back.
Several things I noticed.
The town locks up at 7pm.
Lots of Blue Hairs out strolling.
The Vancouver Island Hotel was infested with Crackheads.
And right next door Fine Dining.
Kalvas has excellent fresh caught Halibut
The most Bizarre juxtaposition.

************
The City council put the BC Gov on notice about that hotel. Next time get your halibut and chips at the Shady Rest in Qualicum Beach.

In Qualicum in the peak of summer the town is quiet after 6pm, no sounds of lawn mowers or cars for that matter (other than my BILs). Not many young familied can afford to live in the area for lack of good paying jobs.

@Parksville Pankster…hanging out with the old boys at A&W?…good breakfast special.

#101 Tom from Mississauga on 11.02.22 at 12:38 am

Inflation will find rallies in 2023-4 with deglobalization, Xi’s one man show Zero-Covid continues, Trump will be free and Ukraine War will (like War on Terror) drag on.

#102 Tom from Mississauga on 11.02.22 at 12:41 am

You’d have an excellent resume for content moderation Garth. Twitter is hiring, eh?

#103 DON on 11.02.22 at 1:25 am

#79 Quintilian on 11.01.22 at 8:36 pm
Hey Crowdie, and IHCTD9,
Learn and remember who is mostly responsible for the housing bubble.

The market was about to correct and then:

Conservatives brought in 0% down and 40-year mortgages, as well as making RRSPs available for house purchases. Keep your perspective. – Garth

Also, since you are both politicos:
Your comments are requested on the new immigration targets announced today.

I say:
Your Pepe is toast.

If he opposes it, he will be seen as a nationalist, populist anti-immigrant, cheap Trump imitation, If he doesn’t oppose it he will bleed a lot of the nutbars to Maxime Bernier.

Liberal/NDP for the rest of the decade.

*********
Are you taunting them. lol

Say it aint so Quint. Weirder things happen these days as Israel is having its fifth election in 4 years and The UK is on track to have 5 Prime Ministers in 2.5 years (TBD?).

#104 Wrk.dover on 11.02.22 at 5:50 am

#84 Linda on 11.01.22 at 9:07 pm
Haven’t been to the Maritimes during winter but have heard it is very chilly/damp.
______________________________

The WIND really brings it to your attention too!
Not for the faint of heart.

BUT, you can sink into your car seat every day at dawn, it won’t feel like a block of wood. (Was in Ottawa on new year day once. BRRRR, will never forget it, my tires had flat spots on them until I hit the hwy outta there)

#105 Editrix on 11.02.22 at 6:58 am

Thank you. I read this installment to my husband. He now understands why every time we pass a condo development that doesn’t have a shovel in the ground I say, “That’s going to be an empty lot for ten years.”

#106 the Jaguar on 11.02.22 at 8:19 am

NP Snippet- Up she goes………..

“U.S. job openings unexpectedly rebounded in September amid low unemployment, likely fuelling further wage gains and adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to extend its aggressive campaign to curb inflation.

The number of available positions increased to 10.7 million in September from a revised 10.3 million a month earlier, the Labour Department’s Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a drop to about 9.8 million.

The surprise pickup in vacancies highlights unrelenting demand for workers despite mounting economic headwinds. The persistent imbalance between labour supply and demand continues to underpin robust wage growth, adding to widespread price pressures and reinforcing expectations for yet another large rate hike on Wednesday.”

#107 Love_The_Cottage on 11.02.22 at 8:30 am

“Re the school workers about to strike: DB pensions and 121 days a year of paid (90%) sick leave plus wages already higher than any other province. Now the union wants a 33% increase over three years. The Ontario government is showing backbone in its guardianship of public funds. Is that not worthy of support? – Garth”
______
I thought if anyone would be against the use of the notwithstanding clause to strip away rights it would be you Garth. Please tell me I’m wrong about that.

You’re wrong. CUPE is being irresponsible in shutting schools, further hurting students and disrupting society. It is selfish and indefensible. If you hate your job, get another one. Lots are available. The government is not a bottomless pit of money, and acquiescing to wage demands increases inflations and leads to more interest rate pain. There is no social benefit. – Garth

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.02.22 at 8:33 am

@#79 Quinty’s Queries
“Liberal/NDP for the rest of the decade.”

+++
Bwahahahaha.
Let’s let high interest rates, unemployment, bankruptcies, and Trudeau’s amazing “foot in mouth” abilities get us through the next 2 years of his Minority Govt shall we?
2 years is an eternity in politics with Liberal scandal after Liberal scandal being exposed.
I expect many Question Periods in Parliament with pepe skewering the stuttering, sox fashionable, PM day after day.

Immigration?
Pffft.
If it forces lazy Millenials out of Mom’s basement to compete for job…. have at it.
A non issue with 1 million jobs wanting workers.
Lets just hope we’re importing skilled workers and not more taxi Cab/Amazon drivers.

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.02.22 at 8:41 am

3 years of Covid lockdowns.
Judging from the comments.
Sounds like the folks in China have had enough of the endless lockdowns.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-china-lanzhou/father-blames-chinas-covid-policy-for-sons-death-that-sparked-online-anger-idUSKBN2RS10C

#110 TurnerNation on 11.02.22 at 9:12 am

How’s that 2% inflation target harhar.

In Soviet Kanada we have quotas, State control over our food, feeding. Comrades line up for your milk.
——–

“The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that the Canadian Dairy Commission on Tuesday approved an increase in farm gate milk prices of about 2.2 per cent, or just under two cents a litre, effective Feb. 1, 2023. A Canadian Press dispatch to The Globe says that the Crown corporation, which oversees Canada’s dairy supply management system, said the increase is based on the rising cost of production. It comes after the commission approved two price hikes in 2022: a 2.5-per-cent increase, or roughly two cents alitre, in September and an 8.4-per-cent increase, or six cents a litre, in February. Altogether, the total 12-month farm gate milk price increases amount to roughly 10 cents a litre, or 13.1 per cent. The increase planned for February will become official once approved by provincial authorities. The price increase will see all dairy products — including butter, cheese, ice cream and yogurt — increase in price though some products will be affected more than others. The farm gate milk price is just one factor that goes into the retail price of milk, said the dairy commission’s said Matthew Gaudreau. Other factors along the supply chain could affect the final product price of dairy products, he added.

© 2022 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.”

#111 IHCTD9 on 11.02.22 at 9:29 am

#79 Quintilian on 11.01.22 at 8:36 pm
Hey Crowdie, and IHCTD9,
Learn and remember who is mostly responsible for the housing bubble.

The market was about to correct and then:

Conservatives brought in 0% down and 40-year mortgages, as well as making RRSPs available for house purchases. Keep your perspective. – Garth

Also, since you are both politicos:
Your comments are requested on the new immigration targets announced today.

I say:
Your Pepe is toast.

If he opposes it, he will be seen as a nationalist, populist anti-immigrant, cheap Trump imitation, If he doesn’t oppose it he will bleed a lot of the nutbars to Maxime Bernier.

Liberal/NDP for the rest of the decade.
___

Well, houses were still pretty affordable in 2015. Post-Trudeau though, they rocketed up 100%. Can’t blame Harper for that one. The Cons did spark the fire in our bellies for houses though – but who would have guessed that we’d completely lose our marbles like we did? Even after the snack plate was pulled away?

We’ll see how PP does. He seems to be doing pretty well with youth, and especially young POC. The reality is, increasing mass immigration will happen no matter what is said, or who’s running the show. We don’t have a choice, Canada’s worker to retiree ratio was 7 to 1 roughly 50 years ago, but is expected to be 2 to 1 by 2035. That just isn’t going to work.

And of course, as I’ve said before, Trudeau has left Canada in a state of irrevocable financial decline. No PM will be able to fix it. The old prosperous Canada is gone now. Rather than hope for a miracle, my plan is to watch the emergence of Trudeau’s new Canada from the safety of my front porch, as an officially retired crustomudgeon.

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.02.22 at 9:32 am

A “Fuff Article” from the NP on Megs and Sofie sitting around the pool….

Skip the article ( its drivel) go directly to the comments…

Pure Gold.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-talks-about-recent-pool-party-being-a-mom-with-meghan-markle?__vfz=medium%3Dstandalone_content_recirculation_with_ads

#113 Randy on 11.02.22 at 10:03 am

The Central Banking System needs to be destroyed on a Worldwide basis…..

#114 Quintilian on 11.02.22 at 10:20 am

Curious. Then why did taxing, banning and discriminating against non-maple buyers do zip to lower prices? – Garth

It did lower pricing at the higher end of market, where foreign buyers and criminals regardless of nationality, found it efficient to launder money, or leverage the investment.

Garth reminds me of Rich Coleman and Christy Clark, the only two people in BC who did not know money laundering was taking place, although the media reported on it almost daily.

How blind and angry you are. Sad. – Garth

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.02.22 at 10:31 am

@#113 Randy
“The Central Banking System needs to be destroyed on a Worldwide basis…..”

++++
Glass beads, steel knives and mirrors are your preferred currency?

Or perhaps a Yap stone money wheel?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rai_stones

#116 Old Boot on 11.02.22 at 10:43 am

#99 Faron on 11.02.22 at 12:17 am

#91 Sail Away on 11.01.22 at 10:33 pm
#76 Old Boot on 11.01.22 at 8:21 pm
#73 Tribal Ideology on 11.01.22 at 7:31 pm

Wow, you are really stuck here. Lemme help you: nope. For the umpteenth time, nope.

I illustrated what some of the ingredients in the festering stew are, but that doesn’t mean those ingredients are, themselves, festering. I mean, a carrot in a stew with a skein of green mould may be perfectly edible and mould free. It’s in the carrot’s best interest to vacate said stew unless it wants to be overcome by slime growing on the rancid turnips by associative mingling.

Hey, congrats tho, at least you are recognizing my postulated tribe. I see distinct differences among the members even if you see them as a homogeneous mash.

————-

If I may appropriate your tortured analogy.

How do women tell the rancid, cross-dressing turnips from the fresh cross-dressing turnips, under Canada’s legal framework of gender self-identification?

What if the rancid turnips ‘identify’ as fresh turnips? Under Canadian law, merely saying the magic words, “I’m a fresh turnip”, grants rancid turnips the right to be included in the stew.

If women refuse to accept a portion of the resulting tainted stew, and rightly point out that it’s mouldy and might kill them, they’re called bigots and turnip-phobes by the cook.

I have to say your painful, purple prose makes you sound like the kind of especially rancid heterosexual male turnip that writes lesbian erotica under a nom de plume. ” A Year of Prison, Panties, and Pillowfights – by Amanda B. Gormless”

#117 Sail Away on 11.02.22 at 10:50 am

All this stress with Ontario teachers, I tells ya. Speaking from experience, it is much easier to vote oneself a 10% raise in a private company. It only takes 4 seconds and the rest of the time can be used to drink beer, scoff chicken wings and chortle.

#118 TalentScout on 11.02.22 at 11:37 am

“It now ranks Canada as having the most xenophobic real estate regime in the world.”

Hardly. New Zealand’s take on the matter is far more punitive. There are other examples. Meanwhile, we have 500,000 immigrants headed this way by 2025. Xenophobic we are not.

No sane person would compare NZ and Canada. It is a spec. We are a dominion. – Garth

#119 mike on 11.02.22 at 11:48 am

Garth sure has a pulse on real estate but big time goofy on politics.

Lefty Garth.

Take the blinders off. The correct path is the middle one. – Garth

#120 TalentScout on 11.02.22 at 11:53 am

No sane person would compare NZ and Canada. It is a spec. We are a dominion. – Garth

Lol. A dominion, no less! We compare ourselves regularly on matters like indigenous relations, gun control and share membership together in organizations like Five Eyes. Not to mention they too confront many of the same issues we do with respect to housing inflation. Population and economic clout are of course relevant, but in terms of development and sharing a common political system, there is much to recommend the read across. But if you don’t like NZ, Australia has similar foreign residential purchase rules as Canada. Both NZ and Aus are better than us at rugby, we are better at ice hockey, so that’s a draw.

#121 Yukon Elvis on 11.02.22 at 11:59 am

Russian teachers have been asked to give up part of their salaries and donate it to Russian soldiers invading Ukraine, but they’re unsure what the funds will be spent on, Important Stories, a Russian news outlet, reported.
At a teachers meeting at the beginning of the school year for Moscow regional schools, teachers were encouraged to donate 3,000 rubles, or about $50, each to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, a teacher at one of the schools told Important Stories.
“We were told that over there [at the front] they have no pants and socks,” the teacher, whose name has been kept anonymous for security purposes, said. “It was obvious that our headmistress felt uncomfortable talking about it. She said she had to say that and understood our concerns, but we also had to understand the situation.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-teachers-asked-to-give-part-of-salary-russian-soldiers-2022-9

#122 Dharma Bum on 11.02.22 at 12:06 pm

#50 Quintillian

I know what’s coming…..I’m a racist, right Garth?
————————————————————————————————

Of course not. That’s just crazy talk.

However, you are misinformed, deluded, misguided, and just plain wrong.

You haven’t a clue about what you are saying.

You have lots to learn, though.

Keep trying.

#123 Linda on 11.02.22 at 12:07 pm

#108 ‘crowded’ – the irony of your final statement! Those self same Amazon & taxi cab drivers are very likely ‘skilled workers’ – I’ve been in taxi cabs driven by immigrants with doctorates who can’t practice in Canada without re-taking every single course/exam they took in their native lands to ‘qualify’ to practice in Canada. Talk about a complete waste of human potential!

#124 Faron on 11.02.22 at 12:15 pm

#116 Old Boot on 11.02.22 at 10:43 am
#99 Faron on 11.02.22 at 12:17 am

If I may appropriate your tortured analogy

Yes, you may. In fact, you can do whatever you like. Since you enjoy my analogies and appear intelligent enough to not mistake them for straw man arguments (hi Sail Away) here’s another. You are as repetitive as a broken record. Thing with broken records is nobody listens to them.

Other thing with broken records is that they are inanimate machines, so their repetition isn’t pitiable. You, on the other hand… claim to be human?

#125 yvr_lurker on 11.02.22 at 12:19 pm

You’re wrong. CUPE is being irresponsible in shutting schools, further hurting students and disrupting society. It is selfish and indefensible. If you hate your job, get another one. Lots are available. The government is not a bottomless pit of money, and acquiescing to wage demands increases inflations and leads to more interest rate pain. There is no social benefit. – Garth
——–

Maybe Ford’s Gov’t should make a reasonable wage offer like they agreed to in BC. No need to strike in BC. If you offer 1.5% for a three-year package, it is not surprising to get the type of response with the teachers that they have had in Ontario. Do they not deserve some raise like BC offered? Clearly, they have asked now for too much, but it is also a problem when the Gov’t refuses to try to reach a middle ground and has the mindset of invoking the notwithstanding clause (which was set in the charter to be a tool to be used in the rarest of events). Now it seems like anytime a public sector union chooses to strike this clause will be invoked. Pathetic OVER-REACH of the Gov’t in my view, but then again the definition of what is an over-reach is subjective and everyone has their own version of it.

#126 Faron on 11.02.22 at 12:20 pm

#117 Sail Away on 11.02.22 at 10:50 am

drink beer, scoff chicken wings and chortle

So, Russ and I will be seeing you in Maple Bay next week?

Also, scoffing at chicken wings is unnecessarily unkind and poor manners. I suggest you scarf them and put them out of their misery whilst pleasing your host.

Don’t get me started with Ontarians and their ashvault.

#127 the Jaguar on 11.02.22 at 12:21 pm

@#117 Sail Away on 11.02.22 at 10:50 am
All this stress with Ontario teachers, I tells ya. Speaking from experience, it is much easier to vote oneself a 10% raise in a private company. It only takes 4 seconds and the rest of the time can be used to drink beer, scoff chicken wings and chortle. +++

This short video clip is ‘tailor made’ for you Sail Away, and illustrates your point. (Andrej Karpathy is a Slovakian-Canadian computer scientist ). The bit about ‘meetings’ is dead on. Too bad some of what he says couldn’t be applied to governing this country.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbxladysbTE

#128 Dragonfly58 on 11.02.22 at 12:34 pm

Not sure I understand your point regarding the comparison between Canada and New Zealand. NZ is a spec. Canada is a dominion ? Is this your way of saying New Zealand is a Unitary Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy vs Canada being a Federal Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy ?

#129 Russ on 11.02.22 at 12:40 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.02.22 at 8:33 am
@#79 Quinty’s Queries
“Liberal/NDP for the rest of the decade.”

+++
Bwahahahaha.
Let’s let high interest rates, unemployment, bankruptcies, and Trudeau’s amazing “foot in mouth” abilities get us through the next 2 years of his Minority Govt shall we?

———————————————
Immigration?
Pffft.

If it forces lazy Millenials out of Mom’s basement to compete for job…. have at it.

A non issue with 1 million jobs wanting workers.

========================

Ancient wisdom for getting the spawn to move outta d’ house:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5onKVpI25E

Yer welcome.

#130 Sail Away on 11.02.22 at 1:03 pm

Wow. Trump mania induced a brief period of progressive tolerance in America… and, whoo, baby… what a mistake that was.

From massive retail crime in California to accused violent criminals being released on bail and immediately committing mass murder (Waukesha) to record volumes of illegal immigrants to the most gaffe-prone president the world has ever seen, to…

It’s an embarrassment of riches for centrists and conservatives, honestly. Let’s see what the voters say next week. Swing, pendulum.

#131 Legal Begle on 11.02.22 at 1:23 pm

#107 Love_The_Cottage on 11.02.22 at 8:30 am

“Re the school workers about to strike: DB pensions and 121 days a year of paid (90%) sick leave plus wages already higher than any other province. Now the union wants a 33% increase over three years. The Ontario government is showing backbone in its guardianship of public funds. Is that not worthy of support? – Garth”
______
I thought if anyone would be against the use of the notwithstanding clause to strip away rights it would be you Garth. Please tell me I’m wrong about that.

You’re wrong. CUPE is being irresponsible in shutting schools, further hurting students and disrupting society. It is selfish and indefensible. If you hate your job, get another one. Lots are available. The government is not a bottomless pit of money, and acquiescing to wage demands increases inflations and leads to more interest rate pain. There is no social benefit. – Garth

*******************************************

What the current government needs is to develop and articulate their position and points better – either through the traditional media or social media.

Having been part of negotiations like this in my former role the Ontario government should come out swinging with some facts like:

a) the $39,000 being thrown around is based on compensation for a “school year” – see CUPE’s own research on the topic.

b) a school year is ~195 days out of a year, which means the lowest paid “education worker” makes $200 a day base (i.e. not including benefits/pension/etc.)

c) in contrast there are ~250 working days in a year. This means that if these education workers were regular humps working a Monday-Friday, 9-5 job they’d be earning $50,000.

What CUPE is asking for is that their members be paid MORE than that $50,000 ($52,650 at the end of the 3 year agreement term) for working ~10 months.

Put this way you can effectively take some of the wind out of CUPE’s sails, but this messaging is almost totally absent – at least from what I’ve seen.

Instead we see and here just general bickering and grandstanding.

#132 Love_The_Cottage on 11.02.22 at 1:24 pm

#107 Love_The_Cottage on 11.02.22 at 8:30 am
I thought if anyone would be against the use of the notwithstanding clause to strip away rights it would be you Garth. Please tell me I’m wrong about that.
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You’re wrong. CUPE is being irresponsible in shutting schools, further hurting students and disrupting society. It is selfish and indefensible. If you hate your job, get another one. Lots are available. The government is not a bottomless pit of money, and acquiescing to wage demands increases inflations and leads to more interest rate pain. There is no social benefit. – Garth
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I never said they shouldn’t be ordered back. That isn’t the point and you know it. Order binding arbitration. Order them back to work. Problem solved.

Taking away the right to bargin now using the notwithstanding clause and who do they come after next? What is the point of law if the government can just ignore it?
Again, I’m shocked you’re not actively against THIS PORTION OF THE LEGISLATION.

#133 The joy of steerage on 11.02.22 at 2:10 pm

Some of Britain’s other self-governing colonies, such as New Zealand, were also given the formal title of Dominion. By the early 20th century, the term “dominions of the British Empire” was informally used to refer to Canada, Newfoundland, Australia, New Zealand, the Irish Free State and South Africa. (See also: Commonwealth.)

#134 American cheap propaganda..lmao on 11.02.22 at 2:12 pm

Russian teachers have been asked to give up part of their salaries and donate it to Russian soldiers invading Ukraine, but they’re unsure what the funds will be spent on, Important Stories, a Russian news outlet, reported.
At a teachers meeting at the beginning of the school year for Moscow regional schools, teachers were encouraged to donate 3,000 rubles, or about $50, each to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, a teacher at one of the schools told Important Stories.
“We were told that over there [at the front] they have no pants and socks,” the teacher, whose name has been kept anonymous for security purposes, said. “It was obvious that our headmistress felt uncomfortable talking about it. She said she had to say that and understood our concerns, but we also had to understand the situation.

At these oil, gas, gasoline and diesel prices, Putin will wage war for the next 30 years u [email protected]

#135 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.02.22 at 2:24 pm

123 Linda on 11.02.22 at 12:07 pm
#108 ‘crowded’ – the irony of your final statement! Those self same Amazon & taxi cab drivers are very likely ‘skilled workers’ – I’ve been in taxi cabs driven by immigrants with doctorates who can’t practice in Canada without re-taking every single course/exam they took in their native lands to ‘qualify’ to practice in Canada. Talk about a complete waste of human potential!
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Linda, you’re better than running with Furz’s crowd.
Just read his silly post (115) about currencies before CBs came to be.

#136 rubbery on 11.03.22 at 2:22 am

Нi there, this weekеnd is plеasant foг me, since
this moment i am reading this wonderful educаtional artіcle here at my house.

#137 David on 11.03.22 at 11:49 am

Won’t the 96,510 units now in the construction phase be needed to house the half million immigrants arriving next year?