Humbled

What a year it’s been. People are confused. Wandering in circles. Hard to blame them.

Jacques was asking me how to deploy his house money last week. He sold six months ago and made an immoral boodle. Been sitting in a HISA since. But with over a decade to go before retirement, no pension, and all his liquid wealth in the bank (the blue one) he knows he has to invest.

“But I’m scared,” he fessed. “What if the market goes down more? Shouldn’t we put some money in now and some more in a few months? Isn’t that called dollar-average, or something?”

Close enough. Dollar-cost averaging is a process. You invest the same amount of money in a target security (like an ETF) at regular intervals over a defined period of time. The essence of DCA is to keep doing this, regardless of price. So if the fund craters in value, you buy more with the same bucks. If it soars, your money buys less.

The idea is to spread risk over time and avoid buying something when it’s too high. But DCA doesn’t actually work. It’s a myth. The odds of paying too much for a security are 50%. The chance of buying something that’ll be worth less in a few months is 50%. Those odds suck. Far better is to invest when you have the money, stay invested for a long time, stop looking at it and quit trying to time things.

Why?

Simple. Markets go up 80% of the time. More important, your life is finite. You’ll need to retire and have income for decades at some point. You may need or want to buy a house. Put a kid through uni. Fund a business. Support aging parents. Life events don’t move in sync with financial markets. Thinking you have to find the perfect moment ‘to get into the market’ can paralyze. I still come across people who were burned in 2008, sold during the Credit Crisis and have been sitting in cash since – missing a spectacular rise in values. Emotion defeated them. Inflation robbed them. Being in cash has meant real losses.

Let’s review where we are now, I told Jacques. Things aren’t so bad – which becomes evident when you stop reading doomer websites. This week the Fed will move US interest rates again, and the media will have the usual cow. But Mr. Market has priced it in. Higher rates are way better than unbridled inflation. CBs are doing the right thing and investors know it.

This could be one reason October happened.

The market (up to a few minutes ago, as I write this) gained 14% in a single month. That’s twice what a normal good year delivers. It ranks 10/22 as the tenth best month for the market since the depths of WW1. In fact, this bas been the best four-week period since the big (but temporary) dive back in 1987.

Here’s some context for you.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Is peak inflation in the rear view? Seems a real possibility. If the CB does in fact pause its rate tightening in Q1 of 2023, the betting is any recession will be like me – short and shallow. After all, we’re moving into a slower economy in great shape – decades-low unemployment, decent corporate earnings, record job vacancies, an improving supply chain and the near certainty that needless Ukraine war will end in 2023. The US midterm elections will be over. Trump ain’t coming back. Asset price inflation (houses, especially) will be contained. How is this not a better scenario than we’ve slogged through this year?

Besides, most people are in a funk. The latest Nik Nanos poll done for Bloomberg shows 64% of Canadians are mopey and depressed, expecting things to get worse over the next six months. More than 50% with mortgages are worried about their coming renewals. Realtors are apoplectic. Four in ten people think home prices will decline over the next six months. A year ago 94% thought they’d rise without end.

In short, invest when your father-in-law insists you’re crazy. Public despair brings investor opportunity. But, as I told Jacques, that’s just a happy coincidence right now. The principal remains that the best possible time to invest is when you have the dough. Sure, you can hold a lump back to deploy in a few months, but the odds are it will buy less.

Waiting for things to become more expensive hardly seems like a good strategy. But it’s the most popular. Ugh.

About the picture: “Priceless is a good description for Lenny,” writes Peter in Russell, ON. “We were very fortunate to get him as his mother ( Paradach Roma) was a show dog of some repute and wasn’t supposed to be bred. Long story short – Roma’s owner went away for a weekend and left her dad in charge of the dogs and one of the males seduced Roma and the happy outcome was a nice litter of six pups! Needless to say that litter was snapped up fast and it was pure luck on our part to find him. I should mention that this was before the madness of Covid and we were not overcharged for Lenny. He  just turned 3 and his hallowe’en costume is fitting him perfectly! Not to be a suck up, be we follow you daily and he’s usually right beside me. Keep up the great work Garth you are much appreciated!”

133 comments ↓

#1 Søren Angst on 10.31.22 at 2:10 pm

will be like me – short and shallow
– Garth

————————

still.killing.myself.laughing.

and I also liked “apoplectic”. Love that word. Forgot all about it until tonight (CET). Grazie oh short and shallow one (a.k.a., My Liege).

——–

Still plowing dividends into more share buys (more shares, more divs … what is there not to like about that complex algorithm?).

But I paused with my last div payment from “yeah oil”.

Waiting to see what US Fed does this week. DOW not sure, slightly -‘ve as I type. Inflation not completely baked in yet Garth, close, but no cigar I think. Jan 2023 will be when completely baked in I think.

Hoping to buy cheap Nov. 3.

And hey, who called the turnaround for

Halloween?

Ya, that was me.

Booyah (+ bite me)

PS:

For all you Nasdaq “Growth” stock investors, Mangiami. See Table and Chart … Ryan was correct, get out of growth, go into value he said, I listened and thanks again Turner et. al.

Revenge of the Dow
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/10/28/revenge-of-the-dow/

#2 None on 10.31.22 at 2:12 pm

“But DCA doesn’t actually work. It’s a myth.”

Ok, this is simply not true. DCA CAN work, just like stock picking CAN work – the odds on repeating history just don’t support it.

If you wanted to have a simple model for the stock market it would be a biased random walk – with a positive bias upwards. So yes, if you were to repeat that model 1000 times, more often than not you would be better off putting in all the cash in at once.

Depending on the variability though, doing dollar cost averaging CAN work. For example, someone who put all their cash in this January 1 vs the dollar cost average-r who finished up now would be ahead.

Really, both plans will work well IF you can stick to your plan. Behaviour control is usually more important than splitting hair between the ‘all at once’ vs DCA debate.

#3 Tom on 10.31.22 at 2:13 pm

Yes, of course the Dow is up more than the S&P as tech stocks are getting hammered due to rising rates and the dow has industrials and resource stocks which have done well.

Hey, what’s with our Housing Minister? Hussein? Is he just incompetent? Trudeau promised to fix the housing problem and now it is worse for both renters and buyers than when Hussein started the job. Why isn’t he held accountable?

#4 IHCTD9 on 10.31.22 at 2:26 pm

We budget for our investing so as to “have the money” monthly. We’ve been at it long enough that we can look at it while it’s tanking and not freak out :). Autopayment goes in no matter what’s going on in the markets.

#5 Guy in Calgary on 10.31.22 at 2:36 pm

Canadians want European style social benefits with American style consumption/consumerism.

Cannot have it both ways without debt.

#6 XEQT and chill on 10.31.22 at 3:03 pm

“Trump ain’t coming back.”

Wait until Elon Musk unbans him from Twitter.

#7 Shawn on 10.31.22 at 3:06 pm

Dollar Cost Averaging?

And the thing with averaging in is after 6 months or a year you have it all invested and it could go down. So that’s not much different than putting it all in now and it could go down.

I think the difference comes from the fact that it’s one thing to suffer a loss because the market went down (not your fault) and another thing to suffer a loss because of your own action such as putting it all in today instead of over 8 months. (If the today option turns out bad).

In the end I see nothing wrong with averaging in over 6 months to a year. The main thing is not to stay in cash for years on end.

And keep in mind you can be averaging into a B&D portfolio, not a 100% equity portfolio.

#8 earthboundmisfit on 10.31.22 at 3:06 pm

“Trump ain’t coming back”
“Realtors are apoplectic”

Maybe, just maybe, there is a Dog.

#9 Prince Polo on 10.31.22 at 3:07 pm

I am probably math-challenged since I don’t own any mortgages (or real-estate), but if the market goes up 80% of the time, then the “ odds of paying too much for a security are ”, which is even more in favour of your age-old adage to buy when you have cash!

#10 Prince Polo on 10.31.22 at 3:09 pm

D’oh!! Got outsmarted by my own incorrect usage of HTML tags.

Meant to ask if it should be “odds of overpaying are 20%?”

Happy Hallowe’en everyone!

#11 Foggy on 10.31.22 at 3:12 pm

“Four in ten people think home prices will decline over the next six months.”

The fact that only 40% of the population thinks home prices will decline in the near future, after the speed/amount at which interest rates have risen, shows how financially illiterate the population is.

Unless they either think that the BOC will drop rates quickly next year after inflation is tamed AND/OR that the Liberal’s will come to the realtors/housing rescue by bringing in 0% – 40 year mortgages. Both of which I think are pipe dreams, but who the hell knows.

#12 Kook on 10.31.22 at 3:15 pm

Is there a difference between DCA purely as a strategy and DCA as a default? An example of DCA as a default would be for middle-class chumps like most blog dogs who have a small amount of money available to invest every 2-week paycheque. If not applying DCA as a strategy or default, how long do you stay in cash before investing it if investing is always a good idea when you have cash? I am a blog dog chasing its proverbial tail.

#13 Søren Angst on 10.31.22 at 3:20 pm

So, I took a look at your table Garth.

Then went online to Financial web sites and found this:

CNBC
Stock dip … more than 46 years.

CNN Business
… more than 45 years.

For the Love of Good, use a spreadsheet.

= 46.75 years

Google Sheets. YEARFRAC. 2 arguments: Jan-1976, Oct-2022. Accept default day_count_convention.

For the Puritanical = 17,075 days.

Mercifully, Yahoo!Finance stayed out of it. So did Google Finance … they don’t care (but will tattle on everyone else in their “Today’s financial news” section).

#14 Sail Away on 10.31.22 at 3:20 pm

Thanks Garth, good post!

And agreed: invest when $ is available.

However… it also works well to be diversified across sectors and preferentially make a greater-weighted purchase in whichever sector or sectors give greater value at the time of investment.

#15 an investor on 10.31.22 at 3:22 pm

Trump ain’t coming back. Garth

Did you read that on the DHS website?

#16 Victor Llearna on 10.31.22 at 3:25 pm

Can scale IN, instead of blowing the whole load in one big buy. If US S&P starts to touch the ATH around 4800 probably not a bad idea to pull some out, at least 10%

#17 Dragonfly58 on 10.31.22 at 3:26 pm

IHC , #129 { yesterday } ” I don’t think a retired non rich dude is getting actual Citizenship anywhere worth going. Once you’re old [ and not rich ], you’re pretty much sunk.

I have come to much the same conclusion.
If you are not rich you have very few options.
If you are rich, why would you ever want to leave South Western British Columbia ?
I will probably just stay put. All the trade offs involved make the whole undertaking a gamble. Have to work on some creative ways of trimming household expenses.
Small acreages are starting to drop a bit at least around here. As long as you look at places with modest houses the gap between what my subdividable double lot is in theory worth and the bottom end of a few acres is shrinking. Even at todays higher rate the payments would be similar or perhaps even less than renting a small apartment. It will be interesting to see where things eventually end up over the next 6 months – a year.

#18 TurnerNation on 10.31.22 at 3:29 pm

Life in Kanada. Love paying my Fair Share. For all the boffo stuff we get, like the military protection.

.The Canadian military is facing its highest attrition rate in 15 years and will need more than a decade to get numbers of soldiers back up to needed levels (ottawacitizen.com)

—- Say How’s the Hospital Capacity looking? We need a sharp harsh 2 week lockdown to Stop the Spread and Flatten the Curve (Only 2 weeks I promise this time haha). I trust the Science!! We were to be so healthy :(

https://montrealgazette.com/opinion/columnists/allison-hanes-situation-in-montreals-pediatric-ers-is-like-a-horror-film/
Parents camp out overnight, waiting 16, 20, even 24 hours for their children to be seen, depending on the priority they are assigned during triage. Stretchers line hallways. Medical staff are working around the clock to care for more and sicker youngsters

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-10-30/i-just-got-boosted-why-did-i-catch-covid
I dodged Covid for 2.5 years and got my bivalent booster in September. Now I have Covid. How is that possible?

———-
World wrap up. Let us be clear, as we enter Year 4, Corvid is not about social control, not about a new world order; it is, about Public Health. And by golly these people will be so healthy.

.Shanghai Disney: Visitors unable to leave without negative Covid test as park shuts (bbc.com)

.Shogi player disqualified from match in Tokyo for not wearing mask (mainichi.jp)

.Home rents drop by 20 per cent in Shanghai as expats and wealthy mainlanders leave the city due to psychological scar left by a citywide lockdown (scmp.com)

#19 Doug t on 10.31.22 at 3:38 pm

Buy HIGH sell LOW

#20 Søren Angst on 10.31.22 at 3:49 pm

Off Topic

1. My fave Halloween Tweet this year so far (and ya, I had to think about it for a few secs … so much for being off scale on the Cattell III B test):

https://twitter.com/RebeccaPapin/status/1586521155136933888

2. Ph.D. female perspective on the Pelosi controversy:

https://twitter.com/ClaireFosterPHD/status/1586887754398502913

Twitter a whole lot more fun since Elon took over.

3. And StatCan’s annual Sh!t and Methane Report …

– municipal solid waste landfills were responsible for about 23.9% of Canada’s methane emissions in 2020 [I thought it was the cows]

– Ontario and Saskatchewan lead in composting facilities [consistent with this Blog’s Commenter Domicile Province]

– Less recycled sh!t in Canada … facilities that divert waste materials through composting, anaerobic digestion or recycling constructed before 2000 decreased from 25.6% in 2016 to 17.1% in 2020. [the less sh!t recycled, the better I say metaphysically speaking]

AND last but not LEAST Urban Canada thinks it does a better job managing climate change than Rural Canada

– More than four out of five (82.2%) urban municipalities reported having reached the developing level of maturity … or better, compared with just under two-thirds (64.8%) of rural municipalities.

AS IF a bunch of City Slickers know more than a Salt of the Earth Farmer.

1 of them is lying thru their teeth and it ain’t the combine dude + Bill C-16.

#21 TurnerNation on 10.31.22 at 3:58 pm

Special price 4 you. 1 meelion dollars discount.

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2022/10/1351-queen-street-east-toronto/
Rare Toronto home right on Queen Street drops its asking price by $1 million

——————–
Just another day in a Former First World Country. From REDDIT (ugh):

“I work at a busy community hospital in Toronto as an Emergency Physician. The last week has seen an incredible surge of Influenza A cases, far out numbering COVID. There are also multiple cases of RSV, usually in kids.
The surveillance data is not available yet, but I suspect a massive spike of flu in the next update. Fortunately I have not seen anyone very sick, but it affects everyone young and old. Sadly RSV has caused many young children to be admitted to the point that I was told there are no in patient pediatric beds anywhere in the city, kids are staying in Emergency until someone gets discharged from the ward.
This is a big one, worse than what I saw during H1N1 in 2009, I am hopeful we are having an early peak and that it drops off for the rest of the Winter”

#22 wallflower on 10.31.22 at 3:59 pm

Even the mom/pop specuvestors are dollar cost averaging.

In the past 6 weeks, the average DOM for the units I am following in this southern Ontariowe city (condo $1900 to $2500 range) ranges from 53 to 71 days.

The average drop price of ask rent for those rented in past 6 weeks is $175 per month and the average drop price of those still on list is $163 per month.
Every month, their market rental rate goes down but they still lease… except the number of those on market as lease and/or sell is increasing on the sell only side.

So I guess some of them are not fond of dollar cost averaging and electing, increasingly, to just get the hell out. SELL!

#23 Søren Angst on 10.31.22 at 4:00 pm

#14 Sail Away

“… works well to be diversified across sectors and preferentially make a greater-weighted purchase in whichever sector or sectors give greater value at the time of investment.”

C’était quoi? Che Cosa? WTF? was that.

TRANSLATION:

I own Tesla and have a Nasdaq ETF. Plus other single pick growth stocks. And I like to give advice.

——————-

All cleared up.

#24 Søren Angst on 10.31.22 at 4:09 pm

And for TWTR shareholders, payday is coming, today…

Twitter Shareholders Should Expect to Be Paid on Monday Oct. 31
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-10-28-2022/card/what-happens-to-twitter-s-shares-now–au8FTR8DqXL4gTeKXo8a

I bugged out at $52/share, $1 profit/share. With “Chief Twit” you never know. Happy to be rid of my last ever single stock pick.

Kudos to those that stuck it out to the bitter end. You SailAway?

Qui perdurat eam vincit.

#25 Linda on 10.31.22 at 4:17 pm

‘Lenny’ looks like he’s having second thoughts about his costume:)

One thing I notice about today’s chart is that the majority of the highest ever increases were back in the 1920’s & 1930’s. However, 3 of the ‘best ever’ days have occurred since 2020. So maybe we will see a whole bunch more best days in the 2020’s & 2030’s? Given the current level of consumer gloom as per media reports, would be nice to think economic sunshine is in the forecast.

#26 Omicron Kenobi on 10.31.22 at 4:21 pm

Tell Jacques it doesn’t matter, Garth.

I’m coming for all of you this winter. Your cash means nothing. Only 18% of you dumb humans have your third Covid shot. The next 6 months will be sweet.

No wonder the smart kids are dressing up as me tonight, bwaahaaaahaaaaaaaahaaaaaa!!!!

Happy Halloween! (Your last one ever)

#27 BC_Doc on 10.31.22 at 4:26 pm

One observation that stuck out from your attached table— 13 out of 30 of +10% months were in the 1930s, a decade of wealth destruction in the equities market and frequents bear market rallies/head-fakes. We are still in early innings.

Markets then were essentially unregulated, there was no central bank, no social safety nets. Direct comparisons will lead you astray. – Garth

#28 Søren Angst on 10.31.22 at 4:48 pm

Markets then were essentially unregulated, there was no central bank, no social safety nets. Direct comparisons will lead you astray. – Garth

—————-

EXACTLY.

In my mind when I first looked at the Table and knowing what you said Garth, Oct-2022 was the 2nd BEST DJIA performance in history and edged out by a measly

0.01%

I say, call it a TIE – photo finish at worst.

Still, US Fed this week and Dec + US Midterms leave me wondering what the end effect will be.

But heck, the turnaround started Oct-2022 and that is now a HISTORICAL FACT.

#29 Sail Away on 10.31.22 at 4:49 pm

#24 Søren Angst on 10.31.22 at 4:09 pm

Kudos to those that stuck [TWTR] out to the bitter end. You SailAway?

——-

Nope, I cashed out at 19% profit and left 6% on the table. Oh well, I’m happy. But then, I’m almost always happy so that’s pretty normal…

And regarding sectors and weighted investments, there is almost always a sector that is in a bit of disfavour for nonfundamental reasons. That sector gets more of my $. Right now, the sector out of favour is tech, so 50% to tech, 50% to broad market.

#30 Yorkville Renter on 10.31.22 at 4:53 pm

We moved $100K from a cash account into our Investment account this past March… it was swiftly destroyed, and we’re still crawling back up.

This was House DP money… so, now the account (which we continue to contribute to) will just sit in a HISA or maybe a GIC soon…

Perhaps add a caveat about when the money might be needed?!?!

#31 Jo on 10.31.22 at 5:37 pm

#29 Sail Away
Can you recommend a tech ETF?

#32 Draw Your Own Conclusions on 10.31.22 at 6:02 pm

A few days ago our resident so-called “scientist” attempted the most horrid character assassination on multiple posters, and lamely attempted to link qualities of the deranged Pelosi attacker with said posters.

It’s since surfaced that said attacker is from BC, a “trait” shared by the klimaxtologist. By his own “logic” Faron should also be carefully observed for bouts of psychotic violence.

See what happens when utter tenuous garbage is trumpeted as “proof”? About as scientific as the Inquisition.

Fortunately his nonsense was seen for what it was and completely dismissed.

Long live irony.

#33 Neo on 10.31.22 at 6:03 pm

As you DCA over time, don’t forget to price in global thermonuclear war.

#34 Parksville Prankster on 10.31.22 at 6:08 pm

Read somewhere, when the S and P 500 hits 3600, nibble. When it hits 3300, bite. When it hits 3000, gorge.

#35 jess on 10.31.22 at 6:11 pm

phony “tax cuts”? deferrals

https://www.dcreport.org/2022/10/31/for-each-1-raise-you-got-executives-got-500-the-latest-on-pay-in-america/

#36 willworkforpickles on 10.31.22 at 6:15 pm

BANNED (Abusive)

#37 Nonplused on 10.31.22 at 6:25 pm

After some ruminating, I think I have an argument that this time is different, and we are all about to get a big haircut. Let me pontificate:

In 1980, inflation peaked and so did interest rates. We got a generation long bull market in everything. If you had bonds, no problem, the coupon was good and if you needed to sell them no problem, you got a capital gain. Stocks were in a bull market and other than some volatile corrections, the market has only gone up. Buying a house turned out to be a no-brainer as mortgage rates fell and house prices easily outpaced inflation. A modest sized portfolio was all you needed to retire because every year the portfolio and your house went up more than you needed to spend to support said retirement. Did I mention inflation was on the way down?

Fast forward to 2022, and none of that holds. Inflation and interest rates are on the way up. This means the long bonds you may have are on the way down in price, so you have a capital loss if you sell them. You can’t really sell them to buy better paying bonds because your bonds have already been discounted to the new rate. The stock market can no longer be counted upon to fund retirement on capital gains alone. It’s holding in there but the trend is down. Now you need dividends, but they are rather pathetic. What’s the dividend on Tesla? Mortgage rates are rising and house prices are falling, so there is no gain to be had there. And did I mention inflation?

Even if you could sell your stocks to take advantage of the higher interest rates, you would take such a haircut on the stock sale that it would take years to get the money back in interest. The money is gone. Well, it was never really there in the first place, it was just a number on a spreadsheet, but whereas before you could realize a gain every year if you needed to that gain is no more. There really was no way to capitalize on the gains besides selling stock and housing and going to cash, and then waiting for bond rates to go up before redeploying the cash. But we’re still waiting. Bond rates are still below inflation, so it’s a losing trade. And meanwhile inflation is eating up the value of the cash.

It could be that in periods of low inflation and low rates, there is no way to invest and lose money. Whereas it could also be that in times of high inflation and high rates, there is no way to invest and make money. Not higher than your 8% inflation, anyway.

Is inflation really coming down? Not yet it isn’t. It’s a forecast. We all know how good forecasts are. Weather forecasts are about the best, because they can at least tell you what is happening right now. Economic forecasts can’t even do that. Anything out a couple of days isn’t much better than a guess based on the trend and maybe some clouds on the radar.

Will the war end in 2023? Maybe. But I don’t think anybody knows how it will end. Russia might have already won we just don’t know it, or western support could turn the tide and Ukraine will march right to Moscow (there is no reason to think they won’t keep going if they get the upper hand, why wouldn’t they?), or wiser heads could prevail and a peace deal is negotiated (ha,ha!), or it could end in nuclear Armageddon (yikes!). Fact is we just don’t know. The future is very hard to see even if you are Yoda, much emotions with the future.

So the best thing to do, as always, is hedge your bets. Keep a diversified portfolio, buy all the things, and don’t turn down a job if you are offered one unless you already have a better job. And whatever you do, don’t count on the government or their money. Inflation is the only way governments ever pay back their debts.

(How does that work? If the government owes $1 trillion and the economy is $1 trillion, just inflate the money supply until the economy is measured at $2 trillion. Vola! Half the debt is gone!)

#38 Observer on 10.31.22 at 6:34 pm

#32 Draw Your Own Conclusions on 10.31.22 at 6:02 pm

Fortunately his nonsense was seen for what it was and completely dismissed.

Long live irony.

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Funny. Nonsense is the conclusion I drew when I read your illogical comment.

#39 the Jaguar on 10.31.22 at 6:48 pm

@#32 Draw Your Own Conclusions on 10.31.22 at 6:02 pm—-

The fun part is that there appears to be more to the ‘story’ than our resident hysteric imparted in his ‘most horrid character assassination on multiple posters’.

Maybe that’s why there was ‘radio silence’ from him for a day or so. I can’t go into any detail here as Garth won’t have it, but let your google finger do the walking. The American Conservative has a story on it as do others. The Dems are imploding. Obama heckled at the Michigan rally and now this Pelosi scandal. The timing only a week before the mid terms. Talk about chickens coming home to roost. Wowza.

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.22 at 6:50 pm

Gee whiz.
Donald Trump and Al Capone have something in common.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/opening-statements-criminal-case-against-trumps-company-set-monday-2022-10-31/

#41 Sail Away on 10.31.22 at 6:52 pm

#32 Draw Your Own Conclusions on 10.31.22 at 6:02 pm

A few days ago our resident so-called “scientist” attempted the most horrid character assassination on multiple posters, and lamely attempted to link qualities of the deranged Pelosi attacker with said posters.

It’s since surfaced that said attacker is from BC, a “trait” shared by the klimaxtologist.

———

Just ignore him- he always does that, thereby making himself completely irrelevant.

That’s the thing with nutbars. Their tendencies carry through all areas of life, so just watch, wait and identify the crazy.

It’s sort of fun. And inevitable. Don’t give that man a hammer.

#42 Regjeg on 10.31.22 at 6:56 pm

Love your daily feed, Garth, and the optimistic perspective in today’s edition. Keep pushing back against the bears!

#43 Westcdn on 10.31.22 at 6:56 pm

I listen to Old Radio Shows when I can. The people were funny and talented they make me laugh. Miss Brookes is my favorite. She played A High School teacher and told stories. She also had backbone.

#44 Kaneoadunda on 10.31.22 at 6:59 pm

The organizers of drone attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet may stage an attack on the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. This development of events was allowed by the professor of the Turkish University Maltepe (Istanbul) Hassan Unal in a conversation with “Tape.ru”.

The scientist stated that he fears for the safety of the pipeline. He called on the Turkish and Russian fleets to strengthen patrolling of the Turkish Stream. “This is a serious business. We don’t want to freeze like the Europeans, whose rulers seem to have gone mad and left their people without heating. We don’t want this to happen to Turkey,” Unal said.

The Governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, reported on the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, committed with the help of drones, on the morning of October 29. According to him, the ships of the Black Sea Fleet repulsed the attack, the objects in the city were not hit, there were no casualties.

Later, the governor said that a surface drone, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles, were shot down in the water area near Sevastopol.

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#45 Chameleon on 10.31.22 at 7:02 pm

Oh no, not the hot-dog costume.

Seen at least 8 dogs with it yesterday. It’s jumped the shark. Even the dogs are ashamed.

Step up to something else, like a chameleon costume?

#46 Faron is Correct on 10.31.22 at 7:02 pm

DePape told police of his plans to hold Speaker Pelosi hostage to “talk to her” and viewed her “as the “leader of the pack” of lies told by the Democratic Party, the eight-page complaint says.

“If she were to tell DePape the ‘truth,’ he would let her go and if she ‘lied,’ he was going to break ‘her kneecaps,'” the complaint alleges.

“By breaking Nancy’s kneecaps, she would then have to be wheeled into Congress, which would show other members of Congress there were consequences to actions,” it says.

DePape is charged federally with influencing, impeding, or retaliating against a federal official by threatening or injuring a family member. He also faces one count of attempted kidnapping of a United States official on account of the performance of official duties.

The announcement of the federal charges came hours before San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins announced several separate state charges against DePape, including attempted murder, assault with a deadly weapon, burglary, elder abuse and threatening a public official.

“This house and the speaker herself were specifically targets,” Jenkins said at a Monday evening news conference.

“This was politically motivated,” Jenkins said. She implored the public to “watch the words that we say and to turn down the volume of our political rhetoric.”

The attack was an unsettling echo of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol, when rioters trying to overturn Joe Biden’s election defeat of Donald Trump stormed the halls eerily calling “Where’s Nancy?” The zip ties were another similarity to Jan. 6 when rioters were seen with the ties in the Capitol.

….

San Francisco’s district attorney Brooke Jenkins also rejected conspiracy theories about the attack, confirming the assailant was targeting the Democratic leader when he broke into the couple’s home.

“At the time that the suspect had entered the Pelosi home that he was in fact, looking for Ms. Pelosi,” Jenkins told reporters late Sunday in San Francisco.

“The other thing is we want to make it clear that there were only two people in the home at the time that the police arrived, Mr. Pelosi and the suspect, there was no third person present,” she said.

“We have nothing to suggest that these two men knew each other prior to this incident.”

The district attorney’s remarks come as the gruesome attack is being mocked and dismissed in conservative, far-right social media, even among some Republican leaders and those at the highest levels of social power. San Francisco’s police chief has also said the attack was targeted.

Elon Musk over the weekend tweeted, then deleted, a fringe website’s far-flung conspiracy theories to his millions of followers, as his purchase of Twitter has raised concerns that the social media platform would no longer seek to limit misinformation and hate speech.

Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., was among those making light of the attack on Paul Pelosi, tweeting out a joke about a Halloween costume of the incident.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/pelosi-home-attack-paul-nancy-depape-1.6635640

#47 DON on 10.31.22 at 7:28 pm

#41 Sail Away on 10.31.22 at 6:52 pm
#32 Draw Your Own Conclusions on 10.31.22 at 6:02 pm

A few days ago our resident so-called “scientist” attempted the most horrid character assassination on multiple posters, and lamely attempted to link qualities of the deranged Pelosi attacker with said posters.

It’s since surfaced that said attacker is from BC, a “trait” shared by the klimaxtologist.

———

Just ignore him- he always does that, thereby making himself completely irrelevant.

That’s the thing with nutbars. Their tendencies carry through all areas of life, so just watch, wait and identify the crazy.

It’s sort of fun. And inevitable. Don’t give that man a hammer.

************
You all go on and on and on.

Not one better than the other.

#48 PeterfromCalgary on 10.31.22 at 7:31 pm

To get people to reduce spending you need to scare them a little. So why don’t central bankers say yeah we are going to raise interest rates and that will likely cause a recession. Recession fear would cause people to reduce spending and lower over demand for goods and services in the economy thus lowering inflation.

#49 Roial1 on 10.31.22 at 7:32 pm

Besides, most people are in a funk. The latest Nik Nanos poll done for Bloomberg shows 64% of Canadians are mopey and depressed.

Say Garth, would you like to remind “Old Nik” that this is an ANNUAL thing in Canada. It comes about EVERY late October. It is the annual START OF WINTER.
YUCK!!!

Toronto – sunny & 20 by mid-week. – Garth

#50 Observer on 10.31.22 at 7:35 pm

#39 the Jaguar on 10.31.22 at 6:48 pm

The American Conservative has a story on it as do others. The Dems are imploding. Obama heckled at the Michigan rally and now this Pelosi scandal. The timing only a week before the mid terms. Talk about chickens coming home to roost. Wowza.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
What “Pelosi scandal”?

#51 Observer on 10.31.22 at 7:38 pm

#41 Sail Away on 10.31.22 at 6:52 pm

That’s the thing with nutbars. Their tendencies carry through all areas of life, so just watch, wait and identify the crazy.

^^^^^^^^^
Projecting again I see.

#52 wallflower on 10.31.22 at 7:44 pm

#30 Yorkville Renter on 10.31.22 at 4:53 pm
you must be new here
gotta catch up
money required for shorter term demands is not considered investment money
whoops for you

#53 Upenuff on 10.31.22 at 7:59 pm

In BC, The provincial government says a full-time family doctor will be paid about $385,000 a year, up from the current $250,000,

Doctors here in BC, are going to be satisfied… and so is the tax man…..

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-doctor-supports-announcement-1.6635200

#54 jess on 10.31.22 at 8:03 pm

this is sounding all too familar?
..”Plahotniuc, who served as both de facto leader and elected chair of the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM), directed the country’s law enforcement to investigate his political rivals ahead of the 2018 election and also bribed police officials so as “maintain their loyalty and further cement his control over Moldova,” according to American authorities.

He has further been accused of corrupting the country’s judicial system to invalidate the June 2018 mayoral election in Chisinau, and also of closing voting stations “in areas where his party was not expected to do well,” the Treasury said.

…’Another person targeted is the exiled politician Ilan Mironovich Shor, who is chairman of the populist Shor Party. Shor was previously arrested for money laundering and embezzlement, in connection to the 2014 theft of US$1 billion from Moldovan banks.

Shor has been named as a figure responsible for coordinating political unrest in Moldova earlier this year, with the Kremlin’s support. He also coordinated with Moscow to undermine Moldova’s EU membership bid in June, according to the U.S. government statement.

“In advance of the 2021 Moldovan elections,” the Treasury said, “Russia planned to undermine Moldovan president Maia Sandu and return Moldova to Russia’s sphere of influence.” This was to be accomplished by using Shor to establish a political alliance that would assume majority control over parliament and then work to enact “several pieces of legislation in the interests of the Russian Federation.”

All together, 21 individuals and entities were named in the newest wave of sanctions against Russia’s efforts to subvert democracy around the world.

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/16967-u-s-treasury-sanctions-kremlin-political-assets-in-moldova

#55 jess on 10.31.22 at 8:04 pm

An Italian city council member from the municipality of Bari was arrested for a mafia affiliated vote buying scheme during an anti mafia sweep last week that saw 19 arrests between Puglia and Palermo, Italian state media reported.According to Ansa, Councilwoman Francesca Ferri was arrested for her role in a 2019 scheme where she paid between 25 and 50 euros per vote to the leader of a local mafia clan, Salvatore Buscemi. In exchange, Ferri would turn a blind eye towards mafia activity in the region.
https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/16966-city-council-member-scooped-up-in-anti-mafia-sweep-in-italy

#56 Ustabe on 10.31.22 at 8:21 pm

“There you have it folks, Ontario Conservatives are the first Canadian government to use the Notwithstanding clause to override Constitutionally protected Labour Rights. Quite a day in Canadian Labour law and Constitutional history.”

Canadian politics getting more and more like the politics from the cesspool down south.

Pretty soon Sail Away and all the other “I’m moving to the States”folks won’t have to, it will just like home up here.

#57 Plsaeodunda on 10.31.22 at 8:26 pm

The new Prime Minister of Great Britain, Rishi Sunak, has already faced problems in his first week in office: some Conservative MPs are preparing letters to pass a vote of no confidence in him. Such a decision is connected with a massive reshuffle in the government, the British edition of Express claims, citing sources.

It is noted that the Prime Minister allegedly did not keep his promise to appoint candidates from all wings of the Conservative Party. The article says that this is another sign of “deep disagreements” that continue to divide the conservatives.

The interlocutors of the newspaper believe that soon letters with a request to express a vote of no confidence in Sunaka will go “one after another.”

Sunak took office on October 24, after the resignation of former Prime Minister Liz Truss. Informing about the decision, she admitted that she was not coping with the duties of the mandate of the Prime Minister assigned to her, to which post she was elected by the Conservative Party.

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#58 Pig without Lipstick on 10.31.22 at 8:27 pm

James Grant recently had an intern do a study on peak inflation during the 70s. Turned out various prestiguous officials had been calling the inflation peak from 1965 on but the supply shocks kept coming until 1984 ish, 19 years later. Maybe peak inflation has passed, seems a little premature to make the call for my likes. Maybe if we were done the war cycle??

#59 Faron on 10.31.22 at 8:37 pm

#41 Sail Away on 10.31.22 at 6:52 pm

Responds with character assassination. Wow. Outright abusive. Garth, adhere to your own rules.

#32 Draw Your Own Conclusions on 10.31.22 at 6:02 pm

Here’s a measured response from an adult scientist:

Facts are neutral despite Fox News’ attempts. So, pointing out shared beliefs between Pelosi’s attacker and some of steerage’s finest is also neutral because the linked views are simple fact despite how it makes them feel. It’s up to them to keep better ideological company if they don’t like the plain-as-day common threads and being associated with the kind of abhorrent behaviour of the right that leads to violence.

I can relate somewhat. I don’t like the kids dousing masterworks with soup or taters despite sharing some of their views. The acts are pretty fruitless and make environmentalists look radical. But, importantly, they harm exactly zero people.

#60 Yukon Elvis on 10.31.22 at 8:54 pm

#41 Sail Away on 10.31.22 at 6:52 pm
#32 Draw Your Own Conclusions on 10.31.22 at 6:02 pm

A few days ago our resident so-called “scientist” attempted the most horrid character assassination on multiple posters, and lamely attempted to link qualities of the deranged Pelosi attacker with said posters.

It’s since surfaced that said attacker is from BC, a “trait” shared by the klimaxtologist.

———

Just ignore him- he always does that, thereby making himself completely irrelevant.

That’s the thing with nutbars. Their tendencies carry through all areas of life, so just watch, wait and identify the crazy.

It’s sort of fun. And inevitable. Don’t give that man a hammer. +++++++++++
Attempted character assassination of multiple posters: kinda like a mass shooting.

#61 @J on 10.31.22 at 9:02 pm

For the first couple of decades my spouse and I just invested a small chunk every month since that’s all we could afford. So a DCA approach by necessity.

But now we occasionally receive larger chunks of cash and just invest it all at once (balanced and diversified of course).

“The odds of paying too much for a security are 50%. The chance of buying something that’ll be worth less in a few months is 50%. Those odds suck”

I have not done a data analysis, but intuitively I think the odds are in favour of, e.g. the S&P500, being worth more in a few months, so >50%. That in itself is further evidence to positively support the all-at-once method. But again, I’d have to check the data to make sure.

#62 Quintilian on 10.31.22 at 9:15 pm

#42 Regjeg on 10.31.22 at 6:56 pm
“Keep pushing back against the bears!”

The bears on this blog who warned the bulls last year that valuations were ridiculously too high, and they were running on Covid stimulus fumes?

I will agree that timing the market is impossible.
But you don’t have to hit bulls’ eye, just be within the target range, and get out when the macro landscape screams yellow alert.

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.22 at 9:18 pm

Hmmm
Is the BC NDP settling union contracts before a recession/election?

393,000 BC public employees.

Almost 50% have settled if the teachers agree to the latest contract.
BC Teachers: 13.75 % wage increase over 3 years.
Similar to BCGEU employee contract.
To a new teacher that’s an $8000 increase per year.
To a long time teacher $10,000 to $12,000 more per year.

BC Nurses , Health Sciences and Post Secondary are still negotiating……

#64 VladTor on 10.31.22 at 9:20 pm

Let’s review where we are now, I told Jacques. Things aren’t so bad (Garth)….
—————-

….Since 1980, bonds have been the defacto hedge against risk. However, in 2022, bonds have suffered the worst drawdown in over 100 years, with a 60/40 stock and bond portfolio returning a horrifying -34.4%…

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-treasury-market-is-the-feds-next-crisis/

That’s why this blog have never, ever, ever recommended a 40% weighting to government bonds. Your link is trash. – Garth

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.22 at 9:27 pm

@#44 Russian Propaganda.ru

Why are you posting this drivel?

#66 Sail Away on 10.31.22 at 9:33 pm

#31 Jo on 10.31.22 at 5:37 pm
#29 Sail Away

Can you recommend a tech ETF?

—————

The NASDAQ is heavily tech-weighted, so any ETF tracking it gives a lot of tech exposure

#67 Jo on 10.31.22 at 9:42 pm

#66 Sail Away
Thanks for a reply.

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.22 at 9:47 pm

@#46 Faron is your Hero

Don’t let the far right internet conspiracy cesspool rule your life.

DePape is a conspiracy loner, a loser with a tenuous grip on reality.

The fact that he was only able to obtain a hammer instead of a gun in the firearm flooded USA speaks volumes.
A complete idiot who has now achieved his “50 years of fame”.
I’m just amazed that the Pelosi house was that easy to break into.
She is third in line to the US Presidency.
Unbelievably slack security.
Heads will roll.

#69 Off topic but ... on 10.31.22 at 10:02 pm

someone may find it interesting. Was at a local grocery store before the “special military operation” and noticed some vacuum packed frozen sockeye salmon for sale for about $8.00 for a boneless frozen filet. Great price so I bought one figuring it was Alaskan fish as most of the frozen sockeye is. Got it home and had a closer look with my glasses on…
Caught in Russia
Processed in China
Packaged in Ontario
Product of Canada
Was in the store again yesterday and the same fish is now labeled as …
Caught in sustainable waters
Processed in China
Packaged in Ontario
Product of Canada
Enjoyed the first stuff and still don’t glow in the dark but no more for me …

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.22 at 10:02 pm

@#50 Observer
“What “Pelosi scandal”?”

+++
Apparently when your spouse is attacked in their own home by a crazed Canuck looser with a hammer…..thats a Democratic politician trying to garner voters.

Such is the paranoid delusions in the cesspool of internet lunacy spewed by the far Right and, apparently, nutters in Alberta.

#71 Flop… on 10.31.22 at 10:06 pm

Flop Drops.

Trick or treat?

Dunno, it says vacant lot, but there’s a mound in the middle that might contain a dead body.

I said Burnaby has been playing catch-up, let’s have a look at what happened with this one.

The details…

7726 CUMBERLAND STREET

Burnaby

Asking 1.2

Assessment 1.24

Just sold for 1.1

So yeah no house, but the 100k or so you’d have to pay to demolish it can now go towards digging out the basement, so that’s a win.

Mind you if they find an ancient burial site under that mound, you’ll probably just get your money back and told to hit the road…

M48BC

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2724002/7726-CUMBERLAND-STREET-Burnaby-BC/

#72 Sail Away on 10.31.22 at 10:12 pm

#56 Ustabe on 10.31.22 at 8:21 pm

“There you have it folks, Ontario Conservatives are the first Canadian government to use the Notwithstanding clause to override Constitutionally protected Labour Rights. Quite a day in Canadian Labour law and Constitutional history.”

Canadian politics getting more and more like the politics from the cesspool down south.

Pretty soon Sail Away and all the other “I’m moving to the States”folks won’t have to, it will just like home up here.

—————

Hmmm… interesting. Food for thought, indeed.

You think taxes will be lowered? I really enjoy pairing my human rights abuses with a low-tax jurisdiction.

Like wine and cheese or beer and pretzels.

#73 Observer on 10.31.22 at 10:26 pm

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.22 at 10:02 pm
@#50 Observer
“What “Pelosi scandal”?”

+++
Apparently when your spouse is attacked in their own home by a crazed Canuck looser with a hammer…..thats a Democratic politician trying to garner voters.

Such is the paranoid delusions in the cesspool of internet lunacy spewed by the far Right and, apparently, nutters in Alberta.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Colour me shocked!

#74 Faron on 10.31.22 at 10:29 pm

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.22 at 9:47 pm
@#46 Faron is your Hero

She is third in line to the US Presidency.
Unbelievably slack security

That aspect is being overhyped. The Secret Service follows the speaker, not hubs. If she was home, DePape would have been met with more force than an 80yr old with a hammer.

#75 Faron on 10.31.22 at 10:32 pm

#60 Yukon Elvis on 10.31.22 at 8:54 pm

“kinda like a mass shooting”

Hellloooo, Garth. This is okay???

New low for Yukon Elvis which I didn’t even think was possible.

#76 Faron on 10.31.22 at 10:37 pm

#56 Ustabe on 10.31.22 at 8:21 pm
“There you have it folks, Ontario Conservatives are the first Canadian government to use the Notwithstanding clause to override Constitutionally protected Labour Rights. Quite a day in Canadian Labour law and Constitutional history.”

Canadian politics getting more and more like the politics from the cesspool down south.

Pretty soon Sail Away and all the other “I’m moving to the States”folks won’t have to, it will just like home up here.

Yep, the sands of democracy are starting to slip through Canadian’s fingers. In the US, the sand is running through quickly. Bare knuckle authoritarianism well on its way.

#77 Ohm on 10.31.22 at 10:39 pm

This time is different; keep the hope Garth, keep spreading the gospel; cash is king, get use to it!!
Nope not buying it this time; you shall see…

#78 DON on 10.31.22 at 11:32 pm

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.22 at 9:18 pm
Hmmm
Is the BC NDP settling union contracts before a recession/election?

393,000 BC public employees.

Almost 50% have settled if the teachers agree to the latest contract.
BC Teachers: 13.75 % wage increase over 3 years.
Similar to BCGEU employee contract.
To a new teacher that’s an $8000 increase per year.
To a long time teacher $10,000 to $12,000 more per year.

BC Nurses , Health Sciences and Post Secondary are still negotiating……

*******
Shuts the opposition up. Retaining Doctors is good in general definitely increases votes. It was obvious years ago that the retirees would strain the system by sheer numbers but as usual nothing was done.

Settling contracts with workers in a friendly fashion (or so it seems) is also good in general and votes with a new Premier being sworn in and 2 years till the next scheduled election. Ain’t politics great!

#79 SK on 11.01.22 at 12:22 am

#70 Crowded EF
I have it on good authority that the attack on Mr. Pelosi was the fault of Creston BC’s mayor.

#80 Russ on 11.01.22 at 12:32 am

Faron is Correct on 10.31.22 at 7:02 pm

DePape told police of his plans to hold Speaker Pelosi hostage to “talk to her” and viewed her “as the “leader of the pack” …

===========

I’ve been there, living in Faron’s head rent free for some time.
I see it as spacious and undeveloped, occasionally enjoyable.

How about a bunch of us meet at the Oxy, maybe onna wing night, and help make it a better place?

BTW, with De Pape being from B.C. with a French Canadian name, does that make Quebec bad too?
Enquiringly minds, yada yada.

Cheers, R

#81 Yukon Elvis on 11.01.22 at 12:38 am

#75 Faron on 10.31.22 at 10:32 pm
#60 Yukon Elvis on 10.31.22 at 8:54 pm

“kinda like a mass shooting”

Hellloooo, Garth. This is okay???

New low for Yukon Elvis which I didn’t even think was possible.
++++++++++
Hey.Faron. Look down. You are standing in a puddle again. Bathroom is down the hall to your right. You want the door marked handicapped.

#82 Dr V on 11.01.22 at 1:45 am

62 Q

“I will agree that timing the market is impossible.
But you don’t have to hit bulls’ eye, just be within the target range, and get out when the macro landscape screams yellow alert.”
————————————

I like it. Good plan.

#83 Dr V on 11.01.22 at 1:47 am

66 Sailo

“The NASDAQ is heavily tech-weighted, so any ETF tracking it gives a lot of tech exposure”
——————————————–

I like it. Good plan.

#84 Seems on 11.01.22 at 2:51 am

Hmmm, seems Yukon Elvis might be in Victoria?

#85 Nagikadunda on 11.01.22 at 5:33 am

The press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov, commenting on reports about the possible deployment of NATO bases in Finland, urged to wait for details and more “clear formulations”. The quote is quoted by RIA Novosti.

In particular, the Kremlin representative commented on the publication according to which Finland can host nuclear weapons after joining NATO. “They are simply not going to include any restrictions in terms of NATO membership in the text. That is why let’s wait for some clear formulations before giving assessments,” Peskov urged.

On October 26, the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti, citing sources in the office of the President of the country, reported that according to a law prepared by the Government of Finland, nuclear weapons can be deployed on its territory after joining the alliance. It is claimed that the document is almost ready and will soon be submitted for consideration by Parliament.

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#86 Doubling Down, Still No Science on 11.01.22 at 6:07 am

#59 Faron on 10.31.22 at 8:37 pm
#41 Sail Away on 10.31.22 at 6:52 pm

Responds with character assassination. Wow. Outright abusive. Garth, adhere to your own rules.

#32 Draw Your Own Conclusions on 10.31.22 at 6:02 pm

Here’s a measured response from an adult scientist:

Facts are neutral despite Fox News’ attempts. So, pointing out shared beliefs between Pelosi’s attacker and some of steerage’s finest is also neutral because the linked views are simple fact despite how it makes them feel. It’s up to them to keep better ideological company if they don’t like the plain-as-day common threads and being associated with the kind of abhorrent behaviour of the right that leads to violence.

==============================

Could you outline your scientific methodology that led you to the conclusion that posters here share the same views as some crazed lunatic attacker? What rigorous mental processes were exercised to enable you to state it with such certainty? The naked display of personal bias is pretty hilarious the point of silliness.

The only one – attempting – to associate them with the abhorrent behaviour of the sick individual who injured an elderly man…is you. Which is probably why you were deleted. You’ve got nothing on Fox News when it comes to fact distortion and innuendo.

The only purpose of your comment was, as always, to incite. The blog’s single biggest troll. Now with little sidekick “Observing”.

Yuck.

#87 under the radar on 11.01.22 at 6:50 am

30 – honest admission. “Perhaps add a caveat about when the money might be needed?!?!”

You knew the narrative, stay invested forever. Seems to me you decided to take a shot not invest.

#88 SoggyShorts on 11.01.22 at 7:35 am

#2 None on 10.31.22 at 2:12 pm
“But DCA doesn’t actually work. It’s a myth.”

Ok, this is simply not true. DCA CAN work, just like stock picking CAN work – the odds on repeating history just don’t support it.
********************
That’s like saying “but gambling at the casino CAN work”

#89 SoggyShorts on 11.01.22 at 7:41 am

#16 Victor Llearna on 10.31.22 at 3:25 pm
…If US S&P starts to touch the ATH around 4800 probably not a bad idea to pull some out, at least 10%
*****************
This blog did a post on why that’s actually a losing strategy. Something like in 2021 there was 8 ATH so if you pulled out 10% every time you would have missed out on huge gains, same goes for most years.

Pulling out 10% when near an ATH is like betting on tails just because it came up heads last… except it comes up heads 80% of the time…

#90 I don’t know on 11.01.22 at 7:52 am

Faron on 10.31.22 at 10:37 pm

It became obvious that Ford wasn’t reading the room as the ER closures became more common.

That wage cap bill, while not the only reason for the closures, is clearly not helping the situation and needs to go.

1% raise during 7-8% inflation for that a job that important is wrong. Same thing is happening here with the education workers.

Doesn’t matter what your political leanings are, health care and education aren’t the areas you want to attack for political points.

Sad day indeed (if it goes through).

IDK

Re the school workers about to strike: DB pensions and 121 days a year of paid (90%) sick leave plus wages already higher than any other province. Now the union wants a 33% increase over three years. The Ontario government is showing backbone in its guardianship of public funds. Is that not worthy of support? – Garth

#91 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 8:09 am

@#74 Faron
“That aspect is being overhyped. The Secret Service follows the speaker, not hubs.”

+++

As I said.
Unbelievably slack security.
But not to worry.
Now that one deranged loser has tried it…..I’m sure he wont be the last idiot to convince themselves Emperor Trump deserves his throne.

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 8:15 am

@#44, 57, 85 Dunderhead

Excellent anti West, Pro Russian vitriol.
I see you have been successfully indoctrinated.

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 8:23 am

@#84 Seems

You’re making a joke about sexual assault?
You should be Deleted and Banned.

#94 Steven Rowlandson on 11.01.22 at 8:44 am

“Realtors are apoplectic. Four in ten people think home prices will decline over the next six months. A year ago 94% thought they’d rise without end.”

Maybe if the CBs don’t wimp out home prices will decline to near zero without end and Canadians will find their moral compass and burn their monopoly games and admit that a home is just a place to live, and 6 figure incomes are rare. May be.

#95 slick on 11.01.22 at 8:46 am

Y’All [including Garth] are missing the point on DCA. The problem with investing is fighting emotions. DCA solves that. If you want to sleep at night, you are assured that your current or next purchase was at a good price.

I have had good luck DCA in and out, but also DCA sales. [both stocks and grain]. The one rule i would suggest if you want to give the impression of having some control, make your purchase of the best price you can get thru out the month, if not do it at the last day before you turn the calendar.

#96 Steve-0 on 11.01.22 at 8:50 am

In summary, never time the market……. But if you were to time the market, now might be a good time.

I said: the time to invest is when you have the money. Now just happens to be fortuitous. – Garth

#97 Tony on 11.01.22 at 9:01 am

Re: #64 VladTor on 10.31.22 at 9:20 pm

Corporate bonds pay face value at maturity as long as the underlying company or corporation doesn’t go bankrupt.

#98 Observer on 11.01.22 at 9:01 am

#86 Doubling Down, Still No CONSISTENT NAME

Yuck.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Speaking of yuck. You sound like an insecure bully. No wonder you change your name on this blog for every disgusting comment you write.

#99 Observer on 11.01.22 at 9:05 am

@ Jaguar,

Still waiting for you to get me up to date on the “Pelosi scandal”.

Just kidding. It must be embarassing to get caught spreading right wing misinformation.

#100 Tony on 11.01.22 at 9:11 am

Re: #40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.31.22 at 6:50 pm

I’ve always had the feeling even from years back that whatever Trump has done also brings into play the entire rest of the Trump family unbeknownst to the rest of the Trump family.

#101 Tony on 11.01.22 at 9:23 am

Re: #37 Nonplused on 10.31.22 at 6:25 pm

Russia will attempt to “take” more countries than just the Ukraine. Starting new wars.

#102 BitcoinBro on 11.01.22 at 9:38 am

Garth, while your point about DCAing being inefficient based on recent market history is true – that’s not the only consideration the average Joe or Jane needs when considering investing and building wealth. Simplicity, accessibility, and the removal of emotion are all things that come with a DCA approach.

There’s some lost opportunity cost but it beats being frozen in cash for 15 years like some of your burned 2008 folks you mentioned.

#103 Dharma Bum on 11.01.22 at 9:40 am

The application of dollar cost averaging is misunderstood.

It was never meant to be interpreted as spreading out investments over time if you were already sitting on a pile of cash.

It was meant to be applied as you received cash (i.e., from paycheques) whereby a percentage of your income would be consistently invested over time. The dollar cost averaging was a byproduct of the process.
Not an investment strategy to improve returns. Just an alternative to being able to invest a huge lump sum.

It’s always better to invest the cash you have TODAY.
(Leave just enough to buy coffee, cigarettes, beer, groceries, and pay next month’s heating bill and rent.)

Proven.

#104 Yorkville Renter on 11.01.22 at 9:42 am

for those who commented on my post at #30… the thinking was “we’re not buying anytime soon, better to invest it”.

we weren’t planning on buying for another 2 years but if the market keeps cratering, we might pull the trigger.

also, $100k is not the full enchilada.. not even half an enchilada… while it stings, we’re not stuck (thank dog)

#105 Dharma Bum on 11.01.22 at 9:42 am

In other news:

Louie CK back on tour.

Kevin Spacey acquitted.

Elon Musk buys Twitter.

WOKE is so over!

Ding dong the witch is dead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6n5EL2SKTFo

#106 the Jaguar on 11.01.22 at 10:03 am

Why is there still scratching at the door when the Observer got his/her/them illuminating response at 10.31.22 at 10:02 pm from their team member….

I don’t engage with the 16%.

#107 Yukon Elvis on 11.01.22 at 11:13 am

#84 Seems on 11.01.22 at 2:51 am
Hmmm, seems Yukon Elvis might be in Victoria?
++++++++
I’m in Kelowna. You could look me up if you ever come this way. Faron.

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 11:18 am

@#100 Tony
“I’ve always had the feeling even from years back that whatever Trump has done also brings into play the entire rest of the Trump family unbeknownst to the rest of the Trump family.”

+++
Yep 100% correct.

His family will find much much too late that standing next to the bright burning flame….they will get burned.

#109 Felix on 11.01.22 at 11:19 am

A dog dressed up as a hotdog is a disgrace to actual hotdog food, which deserves respect, unlike mutts.

If you really want to eat a dog, many asian restaurants around the world will serve up tasty meals for you. Dogs are put down humanely before being cooked and the meat served.

#110 Quintilian on 11.01.22 at 11:21 am

#103 Dharma Bum on 11.01.22 at 9:40 am
“It’s always better to invest the cash you have TODAY”

That’s just CRAZY talk.

It’s the equivalent of the Realtor Talk ie “the best time to buy real estate is yesterday”

You wouldn’t start a business just because you have the money.
Calculations, feasibility, market conditions just some of the considerations the come to mind.

Holding cash may be a mortal sin to investment dealers, but that’s because of their religion.

#111 Faron on 11.01.22 at 11:37 am

#98 Observer on 11.01.22 at 9:01 am
#86 Doubling Down, Still No CONSISTENT NAME

Yuck.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Speaking of yuck. You sound like an insecure bully. No wonder you change your name on this blog for every disgusting comment you write.

Either Old Boot, Sail Away or tractor based on their expressed condonement of handle switching.

Regardless, showing that those characters have the same set of views as DePape would be trivial but also time consuming. And, again, it’s a neutral observation. If they are triggered by the link, that’s on them.

#99 Observer on 11.01.22 at 9:05 am
@ Jaguar,

Still waiting for you to get me up to date on the “Pelosi scandal”.

Just kidding. It must be embarassing to get caught spreading right wing misinformation.

Prob read it on The Saker, RT or Sputnik.

#112 Mikey on 11.01.22 at 11:38 am

Prior blog.
It may be time we all started asking politicians to spend less instead of taxing more.

Start by getting rid of our idiot.
But it’s not happening because their first order of buisness
Was to increase the size of gov and their powers.
I’ve built multiple successful companies and in the top 2%. The beaucracy crap I face today is unbelievable. Rules regs fees never ending and their still broke.

Also Canadians are so ignorant there’s no hope.

I chose to insulate myself with wealth. Now I’m working on retaining my income from those foolish waistfull idiots in power…..or another choice is emancipating myself from this Counrty.
T2 is a disaster and some peeps still support the guy. It’s a head shaker.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.01.22 at 11:52 am

I noticed an NDP pop up ad for Jagmeet Singh.

Curious I was so I clicked on it.

https://k3vzn.flx10.com/U8V0eamkufoqBVntN8B5vxiroyoX5jQe.jpg?width=300&height=300&focusX=58&focusY=90.04&zoom=100

Up pops Jaggy in all his glory.

I clicked on the “News” tab.
No News
I clicked on the “Events” tab.
No Events.
I clicked on the “More” tab
No “More”

One wonders how much it cost and who got the juicy contract to set THAT website up.

#114 Faron on 11.01.22 at 11:53 am

#80 Russ on 11.01.22 at 12:32 am
Faron is Correct on 10.31.22 at 7:02 pm

BTW, with De Pape being from B.C. with a French Canadian name, does that make Quebec bad too?
Enquiringly minds, yada yada

*Enquiring*

Do I really need to explain to you that where one lives or the language one speaks is different from one’s political views?

Sure, let’s meet up. But, It’s gonna have to be halfway between Victoria and Nanaimo. How about The Lion Rampant in Maple Bay? Wednesday the 9th 7:00PM (presuming Weds is wing night). Bonus, we can talk about the election results out of the US.

#115 baloney Sandwitch on 11.01.22 at 12:00 pm

Fear trade is the best. It increases option premiums which you can then exploit. Plus capital gains on options only get taxed 50%. Again a win for being in Canada. US taxes options 100%.

#116 Calgary on 11.01.22 at 12:25 pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-trading-toronto-stock-exchange-halted-due-technical-issue

TSX – Third World Exchange?

#117 jess on 11.01.22 at 12:34 pm

AI machine “polly”

https://pressprogress.ca/ottawa-police-conducted-public-opinion-research-on-its-convoy-plan-before-sending-trucks-downtown/

#118 Ustabe on 11.01.22 at 1:21 pm

The Ontario government is showing backbone in its guardianship of public funds. Is that not worthy of support? – Garth

If they guarded public funds via hard bargaining and negotiation fine. Running roughshod over the Constitution is not fine.

This has nothing to do with the teachers, how many sick days they get, how much they are paid….it does have loads to do with enshrined human rights in this country.

Shutting down schools is not a human right. Essential workers are essential. Don’t like it? Go toil in the private sector. – Garth

#119 thebarold on 11.01.22 at 1:21 pm

A question – for those of us who use self-directed online investing, how do you plunge that large or a 6 figure sum back into the market? Inputing a market order looks like it would take about half a day’s volume to fulfill — not that it’s that big an amount in the grand scheme, but what’s the best practice for us normies who don’t have a wolf of bay street working our account?

#120 sean on 11.01.22 at 1:23 pm

RE: Garth’s comment: the school workers about to strike: DB pensions and 121 days a year of paid (90%) sick leave plus wages already higher than any other province. Now the union wants a 33% increase over three years. The Ontario government is showing backbone in its guardianship of public funds. Is that not worthy of support? – Garth
———–
No. The Ontario government is not “showing backbone in its guardianship of public funds”. It has participated FULLY in the rampant borrowing/spending/money supply expansion that has already resulted in a 6% real wage loss this year (i.e. 7% YOY inflation minus 1% COLA), and now it is bullying workers into accepting 4 additional years worth of real wage losses whilst protecting itself by invoking the odious constitutional “notwithstanding” clause. Attacking the fundamental principle of collective bargaining using the heavy hand of the legislature is revolting.

The DB pension and sick day mentions are spin. Until ~2009 the Ontario education pensions were quite attractive, but with the elimination of indexing and huge increases in worker contributions they are FAR worse than my private sector pension. In fact, as a result of previous government’s cost-saving changes, current workers are hugely subsidizing earlier retirees in these plans and would be better off in a new, defined contribution plan at this point. As for 90% sick pay, that’s basically an LTD benefit that nobody takes unless they are suffering a serious, long-term illness.

I don’t have any problem with hard-headed, good-faith bargaining on both sides, but it’s clear that this government has NOT engaged in such. I REALLY dislike bullies.

Then you should rally hate CUPE. – Garth

#121 KLNR on 11.01.22 at 1:31 pm

@#32 Draw Your Own Conclusions on 10.31.22 at 6:02 pm
A few days ago our resident so-called “scientist” attempted the most horrid character assassination on multiple posters, and lamely attempted to link qualities of the deranged Pelosi attacker with said posters.

It’s since surfaced that said attacker is from BC, a “trait” shared by the klimaxtologist. By his own “logic” Faron should also be carefully observed for bouts of psychotic violence.

See what happens when utter tenuous garbage is trumpeted as “proof”? About as scientific as the Inquisition.

Fortunately his nonsense was seen for what it was and completely dismissed.

Long live irony.

lol, guy is really in your head eh.

#122 Krunesaaroky on 11.01.22 at 1:50 pm

DELETED (Russian troll)

#123 The General on 11.01.22 at 1:51 pm

#111-faron: Thanks for pointing everyone to the Saker. I’m reading it now, based on the fact you’re against it. Well done! How many more times can you shoot yourself in the foot? I can’t count that high.

#124 The General on 11.01.22 at 1:54 pm

#109-Felix: Garth, this is offensive and tasteless. Like cat soup!

#125 Dr V on 11.01.22 at 2:19 pm

120 Sean

“Until ~2009 the Ontario education pensions were quite attractive, but with the elimination of indexing and huge increases in worker contributions they are FAR worse than my private sector pension. In fact, as a result of previous government’s cost-saving changes, current workers are hugely subsidizing earlier retirees in these plans and would be better off in a new, defined contribution plan at this point.”
——————————————————–

So you are not happy with the arrangement?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D8TEJtQRhw&ab_channel=EmpireFanProductions

#126 Mehling on 11.01.22 at 2:20 pm

#69 Off Topic But

“Enjoyed the first stuff and still don’t glow in the dark but no more for me …”

I highly recommend reading the new book “Salmon Wars: the dark underbelly of our favorite fish”

Google it.

You’ll never eat farmed salmon again (which is most salmon sold globally).

#127 No Spam on 11.01.22 at 2:26 pm

#44 Kaneoadunda on 10.31.22 at 6:59 pm seems to be a spam bot post? Delete it?

#128 Faron on 11.01.22 at 2:33 pm

#118 Ustabe on 11.01.22 at 1:21 pm
The Ontario government is showing backbone in its guardianship of public funds. Is that not worthy of support? – Garth

If they guarded public funds via hard bargaining and negotiation fine. Running roughshod over the Constitution is not fine.

Yep. And the hostility toward CUPE employees making sub $40k salaries and offering them 2% or lower pay increases is a bizarre.

Fail at education and you wind up with the idiotic populist morass that the US is in and that is growing quickly in Canada. Conservatives seem unable to understand that education is the foundation of democracy. Piss off haggard teachers at your peril.

#129 mike from mtl on 11.01.22 at 2:34 pm

#119 thebarold on 11.01.22 at 1:21 pm
[..] Inputing a market order looks like it would take about half a day’s volume to fulfill […]
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Never saw that on my own account and parents’. Bulk orders filled almost immediately, these were all very well traded ETFs.

Could be the bid/ask?

#130 The General on 11.01.22 at 2:36 pm

#70- c.e.f.- Sorry, Mr. Fart’s, most of Alberta’s nutters moved to B.C. long ago. Along with the dregs of society from across Canada. Enjoy!

#131 The General on 11.01.22 at 3:11 pm

An unscientific poll is in order:

#1- crowdedelevatorfartz wins again with 9 comments! Take a bow, Mr. Fart’s.
#2- soren angst and faron against the world have tied, garnering 6 posts each! C’mon fella’s, you can do better.
#3- Sail Away has a mediocre count today at 5! Slacker.
#4- observer fades away with a mere 4 comments. You can do better than that, sport.
#5- The General makes a valiant comeback effort! Alas, he’s a day late and a dollar short, with 4, tying observer in the basement slot.
So that’s 34 pathetic mumblings out of 126. Think about it.

#132 The General on 11.01.22 at 3:24 pm

NEWS FLASH: faron against the machine has moved solidly into second place with 7 comments! Can Mr. Fart’s hold his lead? THIS JUST IN: The General moves into a tie with the beleaguered sail away. This could get interesting, folks!

#133 Gerry in Elora on 11.02.22 at 10:15 am

Garth, would you view DRIP in the same negative light as DCA?

There is no valid comparison between them. – Garth