Damage

“I’ve only started reading your blog this year but it’s a daily highlight for me,” writes Arly. “I love repeating what you say to friends and family and sounding like an expert.”

Ha. MSU approved. Good boy, A.

Turns out he’s moving from Calgary (yuck, snow) to Toronto (sun, 20 today) since he’s accepted a new job in the Big Smoke. “I have a small heart attack every time I look at rental prices. I will be living alone, need minimal space, and would like to stay downtown so I can walk to work. I am hard-pressed to find anything for less than $2500 a month. I have read that with the influx of students and back-to-work requirements there is a high demand for rental properties in the core right now.”

You bet. Rent inflation is with us. Folks looking to lease are faced with bidding wars. Bully offers. Imperious landlords. Units that are leased before you even hear about them. And escalating rents.

So Arly, being a simple, fact-based ambitious little cowpoke, has good questions:

Do you think the increased interest rates will cause less buyers to purchase, leaving a greater demand for rental properties and therefore increased rental pricing? Or do you believe that the lack of desire to sell will bring more rental units to the market and reduce the demand, perhaps slightly lowering rental prices? Will increased interest rates lead to increased prices regardless? Or am I entirely missing the mark here?

First, more people are returning to the city and demand is rising. Office ants. Students. Hospitality workers. The core is far more alive than it was six months ago. Traffic is nuts. Normality is creeping back – but this time everything costs more.

Second, higher rates won’t mean fewer buyers and more renters. As house sales crash, prices fade and renters stay tenants, until something breaks. Third, surging rents help nip the inventory of listed condos since owners (who fear selling into a declining market) are taking advantage of rent inflation. Capital appreciation is eroding for these amateur landlords, but negative cash flow is turning positive as half-decent units fetch three grand or more.

Finally, higher rates increase ownership costs. Investors who bought units with VRMs have been whacked. Those who took popular fixed-rate loans three years ago at 3.5% face renewals closer to 6%. And woe betide the army of HELOCers. They borrowed near the prime of 2.4% a couple of years ago and face monthly payments at almost 7%. No wonder they’re rent snorflers.

Damage. High rates hurt owners. They wound the renters. They suck the juices from renters. And a couple of days, it all gets worse. The Bank of Canada will add another 75 bps to its benchmark, taking the prime to 6.2%, with the expectation Tiff Macklem’s presser Wednesday at 11 am will spell out that the screws have not stopped turning. More increases to come.

Says my current fav economist (Derek Holt): “The speed and magnitude of rate hikes is because central banks totally misjudged inflation risk and are scrambling to thwart its institutionalization and prevent it from becoming embedded in attitudes…”

If the CB had opted for a slow-&-steady approach to cool the economy, he adds, it would have failed. The horse was already out of the barn and in its way to Vegas. So we have what we have now. Pain.

Invoking as much damage in as short a period as possible is the essence of the bulked up and front-loaded experiment in order to prevent this next stage of transmission effects from taking root. By corollary, this may be the best hope for getting to the other side of easing expectations sooner than may otherwise be the case.

In other words, no pivot. No talk of pivoting. A rate reduction in 2023 will be – as this pathetic blog has opined – seriously unlikely. Yes, the bank may pause. No, it will not revert. Getting inflation under control is a multi-year tussle. We have only begun, and housing will obviously be at the forefront of the ‘damage’ Holt forecasts.

The BoC must go 75 (at least) since the Fed will hike by that much a few days later. To do less would mean more slippage for the loonie – bringing higher import prices and extra gas on the inflation fire. So, Arly, pause or pivot ain’t happening. Up she goes. Rents, too.

Thus, VRMs, home equity lines of credit, personal loans, margin loans and everything tied to the prime swells in three days. Again on December 7th. The chartered bank prime will be (probably) 6.7% by Christmas. We could hit 7% in Q1. It all depends on the monthly data. But – to state it again, clearly – this is a process, not an event. Rates have finally started to normalize, and are not going back to 2%. The damage to real estate – owners and renters – is deliberate. This is how a runaway economy, FOMO and your mom’s expectations are corralled.

Finally, we have only started to see the debris. Bunnypatch has been hit hard. Tenants are being slurped. Coming up next will be the wretched who bought pre-con real estate in 2021. “They may only be 6 months away from completion,” says crusty mortgage broker Rion Butler. “Mortgage interest rates will be up 100% from their 2021 calculations and the value will likely be down 5% to 25% from their purchase price. Possibly insurmountable issues.”

After that comes the general price panic. Some people with a lot of equity, who need out, are already scurrying to get away from the approaching wave.

Here’s part of an actual email sent by an Ottawa realtor dealing in high-end properties to a potential buyer: “It was great meeting you and your family yesterday at our Open House. As discussed, the price has dropped significantly to $2,650,000.  The price will be the most value we have seen in years for a turnkey property in this area. The owners originally listed the house for $3.650M and they have $3.8M invested in the property. They will deal with the first offer they see.”

Damage. From bottom to top. Lock it up, Arly.

About the photo: “Here is ‘Buddy’, an 11 year old husky who belongs a friend of my wife,” writes HG. “A military member could not take him to an Ontario posting, so he was claimed from a shelter by his current owners.  He is gentle, and a runner … but he has a unique talent. When you howl he will join in and sync his howl pitch with yours. In this photo Buddy was leering over a table, seemingly admiring the snacks being enjoyed by the humans, after having his singular doggie snack. His messaging seems clear …. he would partake if offered. Garth, many thanks for the work you do on the blog. I am sure it is frustrating for you at times. But there are many like me, likely a silent majority, that do appreciate your measured and responsible info and opinions. I particularly focus on the financial stuff.  Your call on the comment section. I mainly look for ones you reply too. A lot of yuck in there. I did enjoy Smoking Man, he was hilarious and could really agitate people!”

104 comments ↓

#1 Flop… on 10.23.22 at 1:27 pm

Here’s my basic observation on Greater Vancouver real estate, detached edition.

Starting at roughly 600k in Chilliwack, for every 20 kilometres travelled towards Downtown Vancouver, add 100 thousand to the sales price to get the bottom number of the detached housing market in each region.

The end zones, 600k in Chilliwack, 1.1 million in Vancouver proper, distanced travelled, 100k, checks out in between too…

M48BC

#2 Victor Llearna on 10.23.22 at 1:43 pm

Victor learn new word today ‘Imperious’.
It applies to little potato trudeau perfectly. Especially the arrogant part of the definition.
“Justin Trudeau is the most Imperious leader Canada has ever seen”
definition:
‘assuming power or authority without justification; arrogant and domineering.’

#3 Don Guillermo on 10.23.22 at 1:52 pm

Young single person moving to downtown Toronto will be a great experience. Lots of awesome things to do and see. I don’t blame Arly for taking the adventure.

I wouldn’t get to smug about the weather difference though. Next week or next month could be quite the opposite. I’ve lived through enough winters in both cities to know that overall a Calgary winter is much easier to live with.

My advice is enjoy the experience and don’t fret about the weather as it doesn’t seem like you’ll be commuting the DVP, 407 or 401. You might even get to see the Flames come into town and kick some Leaf a$$! How much fun is that? And next spring after all that slushy snow starts melting it’s Go Jays Go! Have fun and enjoy!

#4 Søren Angst on 10.23.22 at 1:54 pm

“As discussed, the price has dropped significantly …”

-30% from that “invested in the property”.

And I thought months ago -40% was an Armageddon scenario.

A lot of weeping and gnashing of teeth from the Cdn RE fire to come.

——————-

$100K/20Km

THAT was good Flop.

If you divide the K’s out & the numbers you get

$5/m

Expensive trip to the garbage bins out front.

#5 Mrs. Smith on 10.23.22 at 2:08 pm

The thing I sincerely don’t understand is how the majority of people can pay these rents and still afford groceries, phone bills, clothing and transport. No one really addresses this question. It’s like they assume that renters always could afford to pay more but they never had to until now. Garth writes as if landlords can just keep upping rents forever and people will simply have to pay. Obviously there comes a point where people CANNOT.

Blood from stones.
Or am I missing something?

#6 JSS on 10.23.22 at 2:18 pm

“ Turns out he’s moving from Calgary (yuck, snow)…”

Looks like a nice sunny day in Edmonton …no snow…hee hee. Sucks to be in Calgary ;)

#7 Bankrupting Landlords is good for the Economy on 10.23.22 at 2:31 pm

The whole rental crisis could be more a cultural issue than anything else. People fetishize urban living to a ridiculous point. What’s the point of paying 3000$/month for the “convenience” of living in a big city if you’re permanently broke?

Also, we could be in a “rent bubble”, at least in the Lower Mainland. Landlords over-ask thinking that rents always go up. There’s a 2 bedroom place in my hood ( Burnaby, Highgate) that has been for rent for almost a year now. They can’t find a tenant?

#8 Quintilian on 10.23.22 at 2:33 pm

If free market mechanisms work at all, there should be a lot of money moving toward purpose built rental new construction.

With political pressure building, the municipal politicians, who have for the most part, chocked supply to feather their own beds, have finally been kicked out of office ( at least in Metro Van); the quicker approval for land development should bring considerable rental supply into the market competing with the speculators.

Yes, the specuvestors ,may in fact, end up being cash positive until new supply hits the market, but the window to get out is closing slowly, and at some point it will slam shut.

Most of the specuvestors are 95% gamblers, and 5% investors, not good at math, but have been riding on luck.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#9 Elon Fanboy on 10.23.22 at 2:33 pm

An observation if I may about this pathetic blog….in this age of increasingly annoying website design.

No cookies….so no stupid (mandatory) cookie pop up window you have to acknowledge.

No ad’s plastered all over the page like 99.99% of other websites.

No really annoying delayed pop up window begging you to subscribe to a crappy newsletter or to receive ‘update’ notifications.

Totally worth the price of admission!

#10 Shawn on 10.23.22 at 2:35 pm

He’s moving in the wrong direction.

At least he should get a good deal on his U-Haul. They must be piling up in Calgary with all the people moving to Alberta.

He’ll be back.

#11 Linda on 10.23.22 at 2:50 pm

‘Buddy’ has mischievous eyes:)

The escalation in rents unfortunately has flow through effects on homelessness. Folks on the lower end of the economic scale tend to be renters, because purchasing RE was not a financially viable option even when prices were a lot lower than they are today. Caps on rental rates may keep the lid on for a while, but eventually something has to give.

#12 Prince Polo on 10.23.22 at 2:59 pm

Is a perfect storm of an absolutely fiscally-slammed populace brewing?
Mortgage borrowing amounts outta control
Rental prices to the moon
Food sticker shock inducing fainting spells

Will the CB’ers start doing 150-200 bip increases per mtg? I guess one could sub-divide their 600 sqft unit to make the $2700 rent, more palatable. :(

#13 Richard on 10.23.22 at 3:09 pm

This is what housing advocates wanted.

#14 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.22 at 3:12 pm

@39 Elon Fanboy

yep.

#15 Calculus on 10.23.22 at 3:16 pm

Unless your salary is north of 100K, don’t bother with Toronto.

this will cause such imbalance in workforce, the city will soon be a place of homeless and high earners( it’s already in the direction). Not at all ideal..

The working class in Toronto is being replaced with gentrified DINK couples and a feudal elite.

Be homeless or demand change…while sitting in front of s condo panhandling

#16 Ponnaps on 10.23.22 at 3:24 pm

People rent their basements,often multiple units, to make up for increased interest payments.. offsetting any impacts to cash flow and personal equity.. life goes on till the next upswing in prices..no crash coming in the high demand gta gva..

#17 kommykim on 10.23.22 at 3:37 pm

RE: #9 Elon Fanboy on 10.23.22 at 2:33 pm
An observation if I may about this pathetic blog….in this age of increasingly annoying website design.

=======================================

It’s nice to see the old school web design still in use. Simple and straight forward with no BS. Thank you Garth!
One website design that I find most annoying is those where Ads pop in and out of the middle of the text, making the text scroll up and down, while you are trying to read it. Arrg!

#18 Stacey on 10.23.22 at 3:49 pm

Wait until John Tory and his socialist council start charging a tax on rental income. It is coming. Get ready to pay another 20% to 30% tax on rental income plus the Federal Liberal Trudeau and Ford Ontario taxes that already exist so really you will be left with 20% if you are lucky. Oh, don’t forget new taxes, fees etc. from government and much higher inflation to eat away at that 20% left over, poof……..gone soon.

#19 Ustabe on 10.23.22 at 4:01 pm

#17 kommykim on 10.23.22 at 3:37 pm

RE: #9 Elon Fanboy on 10.23.22 at 2:33 pm
An observation if I may about this pathetic blog….in this age of increasingly annoying website design. ====================================

It’s nice to see the old school web design still in use. Simple and straight forward with no BS. Thank you Garth!
One website design that I find most annoying is those where Ads pop in and out of the middle of the text, making the text scroll up and down, while you are trying to read it. Arrg!

I’m well into my 70’s yet I seem to be able to use the Internet without ads (ever), without pop ups from the website ragging on me about my ad blockers, without any interference from anything.

1) get over to Git Hub, poke around. I found a wonderful extension there that embeds into my browser that removes all cookies as I leave a site. I never get ads following me from place to place because of that.

2) uBlock Origin.

2a) 12 foot ladder. Google both, see if they might help.

#20 Dave on 10.23.22 at 4:07 pm

Even the Economist is warning about a housing bubble in much of the Western world. They have cited Canada as being one of the countries most at risk as prices are far to high relative to incomes. This won’t end well…

#21 Tim on 10.23.22 at 4:09 pm

“nless your salary is north of 100K, don’t bother with Toronto.

this will cause such imbalance in workforce, the city will soon be a place of homeless and high earners( it’s already in the direction). Not at all ideal..

The working class in Toronto is being replaced with gentrified DINK couples and a feudal elite.

Be homeless or demand change…while sitting in front of s condo panhandling”

Same in Vancouver, except it has been flooded with Chinese money.

#22 Arcticfox on 10.23.22 at 4:12 pm

Don’t forget about south of the border..

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buckle-brutal-free-fall-home-090000513.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHRiO9kHgDa6Vz4uBl9JO1zsvAQLhoxCuN1D1XABtffKX69Y52r2ANGezVMZLarYKd7iprE21nKtfsE9yu-nNsgGQ_hubS80STSPiYq797Lejp5j-ttLybYjMwtIjrQbcGZxntHJbR942ECr0aTC2fkBVJ09gUBoNTTAJdSE89H4&guccounter=1

#23 AM in MN on 10.23.22 at 4:39 pm

#21 Tim on 10.23.22 at 4:09 pm
“nless your salary is north of 100K, don’t bother with Toronto.

this will cause such imbalance in workforce, the city will soon be a place of homeless and high earners( it’s already in the direction). Not at all ideal..

The working class in Toronto is being replaced with gentrified DINK couples and a feudal elite.

—————————————————-

Not sure why this is such a big deal. It’s a huge country with lots of other places to live. I haven’t been downtown TO for probably 20 years, with no need to.

On the discussion of the rental market, it’s good to see the market taking care of the past bad policies of Jr.

Who would rent their apartment to anyone who took advantage of the “rent holiday”, where you couldn’t evict someone for not paying their rent.

I’ve rented in 5 cities, about 10 places, and have always treated the properties like they were my own and never been late on a rent payment. It has made it a lot easier to get approved and better deals on rents and renewals, especially on nice properties.

There is no free lunch.

#24 Guidance Counsellor on 10.23.22 at 4:44 pm

Tim, don’t blame the investors from China when it’s our government who is turning a blind eye to it.

Canada is no longer a country where social mobility means a chance to become middle class or higher.

You know Toronto is bad when Grade 6 students are trying to sign up for Only Fans and the Principal had a meeting with the parents. Most of them were apathetic and didn’t care. One parent even replied that you can’t blame them with what the government has done to this country and its future.

There was a dozen of 14 year old and 15 year old carjackers and the parents were like what else can they do with the coat of living.

We are in a slow decline.

#25 Manny on 10.23.22 at 4:51 pm

Why would I rent anything, go in deep debt, deal with the hassle of tenants and all the government regulations, brand new taxes, fees, policies that punish property owners, always high, out of whack property taxes, insurance, higher mortgage rates, fees, penalties, recapture rental depreciation, possible damage, repairs, maintenance etc. and who knows what else is coming.

I can simply just get 5% to 5.75% in a GIC, RRSP, TFSA etc. for 5 to 10 years and pay maximum tax rate of 25% in my case with utilizing a great combination of RRSP, TFSA tax deferral, tax free compounding and some non-registered let the money rolling in. The easy money days of real estate renting and flipping is done, stick a fork in it.

#26 HH on 10.23.22 at 5:08 pm

With those rental prices in Toronto I could not afford to live there. They are ridiculous. I can, however, afford to live in BC’s Okanagan as an owner. My mortgage payment is $880 a month with eight more years at 2.95% left before renewal. The value of my property has increased but that may not last. Of course, rent here is high as well. Honestly, I don’t know how the average person affords these rents. What a world!

Your mortgage payment does not equate to rent. Ignored is the cost of your equity, property tax, maintenance, closing costs, insurance etc. Almost nowhere in Canada is owning truly cheaper than renting, unless you have already spent years and years subsidizing your house. – Garth

#27 Timmy on 10.23.22 at 5:20 pm

“With those rental prices in Toronto I could not afford to live there. They are ridiculous. I can, however, afford to live in BC’s Okanagan as an owner. My mortgage payment is $880 a month with eight more years at 2.95% left before renewal. The value of my property has increased but that may not last. Of course, rent here is high as well. Honestly, I don’t know how the average person affords these rents. What a world!

Your mortgage payment does not equate to rent. Ignored is the cost of your equity, property tax, maintenance, closing costs, insurance etc. Almost nowhere in Canada is owning truly cheaper than renting, unless you have already spent years and years subsidizing your house. – Garth”
——————————-
How do you factor in the smoke from the fires which is worse every year, and the evacuations?

#28 DON on 10.23.22 at 5:21 pm

#5 Mrs. Smith on 10.23.22 at 2:08 pm
The thing I sincerely don’t understand is how the majority of people can pay these rents and still afford groceries, phone bills, clothing and transport. No one really addresses this question. It’s like they assume that renters always could afford to pay more but they never had to until now. Garth writes as if landlords can just keep upping rents forever and people will simply have to pay. Obviously there comes a point where people CANNOT.

Blood from stones.

*******
Patience! It will be talked about…most likely a coming factor forcing the sale of many investment properties or something that causes the tipping point. Right now municipalties are bringing in more rental buildings as their part of the affordable housing initiatives.

#29 Cheese on 10.23.22 at 5:31 pm

#5 The thing I sincerely don’t understand is how the majority of people can pay these rents and still afford groceries, phone bills, clothing and transport. No one really addresses this question. It’s like they assume that renters always could afford to pay more but they never had to until now. Garth writes as if landlords can just keep upping rents forever and people will simply have to pay. Obviously there comes a point where people CANNOT.

As someone who makes $20/hr in Ottawa, I can tell you that we don’t. Two full time jobs for a single person. Eat once a day, its cheaper.

#30 KNOW IT ALL on 10.23.22 at 5:31 pm

IR go up….

Price of RE and the demand for stuff go down.

YES….WE KNOW.

#31 Grunt on 10.23.22 at 5:35 pm

Toronto is no longer a healthy place. Too crowded. Too congested. Too vertical. Too much violence. Only the herd want to live there.

We live in such a beautiful, vast and wild land. Forget the profiteers and their asphalt & concrete.

#32 Unpinned on 10.23.22 at 5:43 pm

Social Capital has allowed many new and young first-time homeowners get into to the housing market with help from their family. Social Capital is a translation in the context of social justice warriors of bringing a “Sweeden like commitment to the working and middle class”. The framework of “social capital” is taking a major step back now and being unwound due to the hurricane winds of 10% plus inflation in all the basics: food; rent; heat; hydro; tax and fuel….All the good intentions now obliterated by the too-good-to-be-true over compensation of the covid help.

#33 Nonplused on 10.23.22 at 5:44 pm

#6 JSS on 10.23.22 at 2:18 pm
“ Turns out he’s moving from Calgary (yuck, snow)…”

Looks like a nice sunny day in Edmonton …no snow…hee hee. Sucks to be in Calgary ;)

————————————-

It’s climate change of course. I’m being facetious, of course, but this year we had a spectacular summer. Right from when the rain finally stopped in late June to mid-October it was gorgeous almost every single day. I had the top off the Jeep for 2 months straight! I don’t think you can do that in Toronto. Either the rain or the humidity, either way you are soaked.

#34 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.22 at 5:46 pm

ya gotta wonder when the top Russian General is calling the Pentagon and other NATO countries…..

https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-shoigu-holds-second-call-with-us-defense-secretary-three-days-2022-10-23/

If he knows Putin is about to go “Big Casino”……

#35 Arcticfox on 10.23.22 at 5:49 pm

About the real estate agents ..

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-number-real-estate-agents-will-quit-due-economy-realtor-predicts

#36 Bear on 10.23.22 at 5:50 pm

Lots of disinformation in this comments. John Tory a socialist. The government giving rent moratoriums and that suddenly caused a rental crisis.
Sheer Russian trolls and bots I guess.

#37 NOSTRADAMUS on 10.23.22 at 6:17 pm

DON’T BE SO NAIVE!
Tough times for all those who listened to Tiff only a few short months ago and bought real estate. RE-cap, from his lips to your ears, interest rates will not be going up until well into 2023. I kid you not. For those thinking of selling, a few costs over and above the -10% -20%- 30% ??? price decline (pick your poison). (1)The Shylock realtor 5% commission fee. (2)Lawyer fee. (3)Mortgage discharge penalty. (4)Tax arrears. (5) Moving company. (6) The ex-wife’s going away dowry. In today’s modern marriage there is no forgiveness for failure. For once and for all, please stop this nonsense talk of leaving money on the table by selling too soon. Devil’s Advocate.

Tiff erred in his timetable, obviously. But we all knew rates would rise. If not in 2002, then in 2023. The impact on real estate would have been identical. It just arrived earlier. You have no argument. Additionally, lose the ‘Shylock’ reference. – Garth

#38 Gen Millennial on 10.23.22 at 6:45 pm

#23

Tell me where are the tech jobs in Red River, Ontario or in Saskatchewan?

Most of the jobs are in a few cities. The cheaper towns are cheap for a reason: Few good paying jobs.

The rental market is nothing but a racket and legalized extortion at this time.

#39 yvr_lurker on 10.23.22 at 6:48 pm

Yup. Severe damage to owners who are in highly leveraged positions, and much damage to renters who face rapidly escalating rental prices, which will only be exacerbated by the huge influx of new arrivals seeking accommodations. Even with a good wage increase, if someone can’t find something moderately affordable to rent, and with rapid increases in food prices, are they going to want to load up on consumer items for Xmas? Corporate profits are a lagging indicator; once it is clear that many people will delay major purchases (cars, housing upgrades, renos, travel) as a result of their more precarious financial state, how are we not going to enter a rather major recessionary period next year? Will Gov’ts intent on killing inflation all rejoice when a major recession hits, bringing on new problems.

It is clear to me that many western Gov’ts have been rather inept at forecasting what is happening now, and in putting in less blunt measures that would have alleviated much of this. Epic fail.

#40 Government Shill on 10.23.22 at 6:50 pm

Broke my 3.24% mortgage in 2018 for a 1.59% one in 2020. Cost me dearly to do it. Looks like I’m safe from a 2023 renewal, is it too early to see what 2025 will be like?

#41 HH on 10.23.22 at 6:52 pm

#27 – Timmy

I have never been evacuated because of a forest fire. Of course, we are all affected by them one way or another like the smoke.

#42 The Original Jake on 10.23.22 at 6:55 pm

Relative of mine is looking to sell their parent’s now vacant home just outside the GTA since summer. Two drops of over 150k each and still no bites.

#43 HH on 10.23.22 at 7:02 pm

#26 – Garth

My down payment was $183,000.
I think my closing costs were about $4,000. Maybe a little less.
I didn’t pay any property transfer taxes because I purchased my mother’s condo in a strata during the estate process.
My strata fees are $215 a month.
My insurance is $425 a year.
My property tax is $1100 a year. We get grants for our principal residence.
I recently had $5000 of bathroom upgrades.

How do landlords calculate how much rent to charge.

#44 jess on 10.23.22 at 7:09 pm

A cattle rancher in Washington was sentenced yesterday to 11 years in prison for defrauding Tyson Foods Inc. (Tyson) and another company (Company 1) out of more than $244 million by charging the victim companies for the purported costs of purchasing and feeding hundreds of thousands of cattle that did not exist.

…”Between approximately 2016 and November 2020, Easterday submitted and caused others to submit false and fraudulent invoices and other information to Tyson and Company 1. These false and fraudulent invoices sought and obtained reimbursement from the victim companies for the purported costs of purchasing and raising hundreds of thousands of cattle that neither Easterday nor Easterday Ranches ever purchased, and that did not actually exist.

As a result of the fraud scheme, Tyson and Company 1 paid Easterday Ranches over $244 million for the purported costs of purchasing and feeding over 265,000 ghost cattle. Easterday used the fraud proceeds for his personal use and benefit, and for the benefit of Easterday Ranches, including to cover approximately $200 million in commodity futures contracts trading losses that Easterday had incurred on behalf of Easterday Ranches. In connection with his trading, Easterday also defrauded the CME Group Inc. (CME), which operates the world’s largest financial derivatives exchange, by submitting falsified paperwork, which resulted in the CME exempting Easterday Ranches from otherwise-applicable position limits in live cattle futures contracts. read more @

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/rancher-sentenced-running-244-million-ghost-cattle-scam

#45 jess on 10.23.22 at 7:14 pm

companies house
These reforms—long awaited and much welcomed—
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-crackdown-on-fraud-and-money-laundering-to-protect-uk-economy

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/16801-uk-launches-new-bill-to-crackdown-on-fraud-and-money-laundering

Swedbank’s former CEO went on trial in Stockholm Tuesday in a high-profile white-collar crime case involving massive money laundering in its Baltic branches.British anti-money-laundering expert Graham Barrow calls the trial against Bonnesen “a really big deal,” and highly unusual. He argues that holding a former CEO of a bank personally accountable is really important.“Not to pre-judge her guilt, but I think as an approach, it is absolutely crystal-clear that the use of fines against banks hasn’t made any difference whatsoever,” Barrow said. “In fact, only the shareholders and customers are penalized that way.”
Some clients were Russian oligarchs, and some money flowing through the bank could be traced to companies allegedly tied to the so-called Magnitsky fraud in Russia.

The bank’s so-called high-risk clients funnelled more than $40 billion through its Baltic operations between 2014 and 2019, an investigation from law firm Clifford Chance, commissioned by the new Swedbank board, concluded in 2020.

Barrow argues that money-laundering in the Baltics in the 2000s and the 2010s was most likely approved by and enriched the Putin regime and helped it remain in power.

“You almost cannot divorce what happened then in the Baltics with what is happening now in places like Ukraine,” Barrow said.

The trial is planned to run until November 25. A verdict can be expected a few weeks later.

Swedbank is also currently being investigated by U.S. authorities as well as by a prosecutor in Estonia over its operations in the Baltics. The bank has said that it cooperates fully with the investigations.

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/16840-swedbank-ex-ceo-on-trial-for-alleged-money-laundering-cover-up

#46 Linda on 10.23.22 at 7:15 pm

There is an elephant in the rental room that should be considered. It is the cost of providing a product – in this case, rental accommodation – to the public. I took a look at a purpose built rental for sale in the GTA – #8 Castleton Avenue. Claims it has 18 units, 10 parking stalls & has had new roof, HVAC, appliances etc. Ask is $8.3 million. There was a calculator attached to the listing so I put in 35% down, with a 35 year term, 2.17% rate. As per said calculator, I’d hand over $2.905 million, have a $5.395 million mortgage that would cost me $18,319 per month to service, plus hand over $387,950 in land transfer taxes. Property taxes were listed at $21,741. If I add up the downpayment & land transfer tax with an eye to getting an annual 5% ROI on those funds plus property tax & monthly mortgage costs, divided those costs by the 18 units & then divided them by 12 to come up with a monthly rental rate I’d have to charge my tenants $1,880 per month just to cover off those costs! That doesn’t include utilities or any property upkeep, by the way. The listing claims that this building nets about $56K per annum right now. I figure the current owner must have paid off the mortgage to be getting that much & is now looking to cash out. Bottom line is, the costs to own that building are only going to increase & the monthly rent for units in that building would have to be at a bare minimum $2,500 or more per month to cover costs of operations plus a reasonable ROI. Incidentally the listing says the floor space is 6,000 square feet. I sure hope that is per floor, because otherwise those rental units are not very big.

#47 SHANE GALLANT on 10.23.22 at 7:22 pm

Rents will come down soon if more houses will be coming in the market

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.22 at 7:43 pm

@#37 Nostradamus
“Tough times for all those who listened to Tiff only a few short months ago and bought real estate. ”

++=
Well.
First .Anyone that trusts a govt bureaucrat is a fool.
Second. The inflation alarm bells were loud and clear.
Third. Housing was ridiculously overpriced.
Fourth. Caveat Emptor… Let the Greaterfool beware.

#49 Moh on 10.23.22 at 7:53 pm

Garth please help! I have a 4.75 percent variable rate should I lock in? I still have 3 and half years left on the term.

#50 Shawn on 10.23.22 at 8:01 pm

Democracy – One vote per person.

Capitalism – One vote per dollar. (Better accumulate some, but watch out for those who will vote to take them away from you.)

#51 Terry on 10.23.22 at 8:12 pm

The Great Canadian Real Estate crash of 2022/23 is finally upon us. Rising interest rates was the trigger.

Then there is this from wolfstreet.com

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/10/21/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-canada-october-update-prices-plunge-at-fastest-pace-on-record/

“The overall 11-City Teranet-National Bank House Price Index plunged by 3.1% in September from August, the biggest month-to-month plunge ever, after having plunged 2.4% in August from July, which had matched the then biggest ever Lehman-bankruptcy plunge in December 2008.”

If these kinds of price drops keep up for another year from now then the monthly price drops annualized could see average housing prices drop another 40% in value on top of the drops already realized.

This is the worst ongoing Real Estate Crash I have ever seen in this country. The fallout will be epic and catastrophic for millions.

#52 Garth says: on 10.23.22 at 8:13 pm

#49 Moh

You should go variable.

#53 TurnerNation on 10.23.22 at 8:23 pm

Ah yes the days when Smoking man held court in the steerage section. When, bawdy limericks and odes to one’s little fireman held sway.
I feel lucky to have caught more than a few of his Periscope live sessions or recordings.

——–
Recall when these things were mere Internet Consp. Theories, like 6 months ago????

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11331411/Aldi-considers-selling-edible-INSECTS-help-families-cost-living-crisis.html
Aldi considers selling edible INSECTS to help families through the cost-of-living crisis
Aldi is considering introducing a line of edible insect recipe kits in its UK stores

—– Yep Australia & NZ did appear to be a test zone for Corvid tyranny. Kanada not far behind.
Now this.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/aussie-bank-begins-linking-customer-transactions-carbon-footprint
Aussie Bank Begins Linking Customer Transactions To Carbon Footprint
In another foretaste of potential future ‘carbon allowance’ limits, a major bank in Australia has introduced a new feature that links purchases to a customer’s carbon footprint and warns them when they are going over the average.

#54 Jens on 10.23.22 at 8:34 pm

The obvious solution, of course, isn’t even being talked about: build more rapid transit!
It works in Europe; why not here?
There’s only so much space in Downtown TOR/VAN, and it’s pretty much completely built out. At some point, we have to let people live for less in bunnypatch and shuttle them to the city cores quickly and efficiently.

I know it takes years to build, plus decades of getting retarded politicians at all levels to embrace the idea. But we’ve got to start some day.

#55 604sam on 10.23.22 at 9:47 pm

I’m a construction worker so I will never get to wall to work. Unless by chance the company I work for gets a contract within walking distance of my house. But even if they did, it would be temporary.

I would love to walk to work. I hate commuting. I hate how expensive it is, how awful it is for the environment, and mostly how long it takes.

Do not underestimate the value of a short commute on your lifestyle.

#56 X on 10.23.22 at 10:06 pm

This Wednesday’s rate increase won’t fully hit the RE market until the end of Feb, due to rate holds. Buyers have already pumped the brakes big time. Most sellers don’t have a clue as to how bad this may get the next year or two.

#57 wallflower on 10.23.22 at 10:13 pm

cannot comment on Toronto but in my southern Ontariowe city the numbers of rentals listing on 3 sources (one being MLS) are at an all-time high – I have been reporting this for months, so yes, that high keeps getting broken.
There are now 3X the number of rentals from earlier in the year.

The DOM grows in lock step.
And, the average drop in asking price also steadily increases.
The pattern is established.

So capitulation is coming.

Also noticing an increasing number of units that go off market as leased then return within 3 months. It appears that new tenants are signing leases but not paying or not showing up… ha ha ha… imagine the vacancy costs to these mom/pop specuvestors!

#58 TurnerNation on 10.23.22 at 10:44 pm

#128 Old Boot on 10.21.22 at 1:00 pm

Re. GPS you forgot to mention, GPS is owned by the US military. We are using their system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gps
——–

Ok Bikers here’s a rant from your local unfriendly Cager.
5 fat touring bikes behind me, straddled by grey beards — old enough to know better.
(I guess one cannot ride a bike clean shaven, that would be just unsafe? haha)
All 5 pull out to pass the line of cars. Final bike doesn’t quite make it. Oncoming car pulls half onto shoulder to avoid disaster.

————

Welcome to 2020! 2 weeks to Flatten the Curve/Stop the Sread. This sounds permanent. Year 4 folks.
Here’s a self-study question. Do not yell out your answer kids. “From where are all the ‘variants’ orginating”.

.COVID outbreak declared at 3 Guelph hospital units, all three units are closed to visitors except on compassionate grounds to stop spread of virus, patients are subject to higher amounts of cleaning (globalnews.ca)

.Is it cold, COVID or the flu? Experts say its ‘very difficult’ to differentiate (globalnews.ca)

#59 David Eby on 10.23.22 at 11:30 pm

We are taking away the land use zoning control by the ganster municipalities of BC.

It is BC real estate densification go time.

All secondary suites in BC will be legalized.

All properties will be allowed up to three units.

All development red tape will be removed – application to breaking ground will be 10 days.

#60 DON on 10.23.22 at 11:33 pm

#8 Quintilian on 10.23.22 at 2:33 pm
If free market mechanisms work at all, there should be a lot of money moving toward purpose built rental new construction.

With political pressure building, the municipal politicians, who have for the most part, chocked supply to feather their own beds, have finally been kicked out of office ( at least in Metro Van); the quicker approval for land development should bring considerable rental supply into the market competing with the speculators.

Yes, the specuvestors ,may in fact, end up being cash positive until new supply hits the market, but the window to get out is closing slowly, and at some point it will slam shut.

Most of the specuvestors are 95% gamblers, and 5% investors, not good at math, but have been riding on luck.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

**********
The pro development mayor (Stewart Yoing and a slate of councilors just got their walking papers in fast growing Langford BC. Everyone thought the incumbent since incorporation was a shoe in…nope!

#61 SK on 10.23.22 at 11:38 pm

Reverse urbanization/ counter urbanization is here to stay. We have welcomed folks in our little city from overseas who see the advantages of a smaller community. Our son and most of his friends in their mid 20s have left the large urban city we came from and are doing very well in the trades in their chosen smaller communities. Two have purchased homes for a reasonable price. Lots of opportunity in Canada if you are not a lemming falling for a big metropolis. We are pleased to have left the big city rat race too. Wonderful quality of life and cashed out the house .

#62 the Jaguar on 10.23.22 at 11:50 pm

Bumped into a neighbourhood acquaintance today. I don’t know his age, but I would guess late 30’s. In the past we have traded opinions about the real estate market in Calgary. He has been interested in buying a place, obtained a few pre-approvals from his bank, but due to a heavy business travel schedule hasn’t found the time to get serious about locating a purchase.

Today he said he was going to give up on the whole idea of home ownership. He feels “priced out” by the rate increases and thinks current rates and where they are headed versus the rates he was previously offered on pre-approval completely ‘unacceptable’. I just smiled but said nothing when he commented that anything above 5.00% was grand larceny by financial institutions and governments.

Historical rates and norms were absent from his thinking process. Just ‘old stories’ that Boomers tell around the campfire. Irrelevant to a generation that has only witnessed low rates and higher values for decades. One begins to understand that despite the efforts of people like Garth or the Evan Siddall’s of this world, there is a generation of people who just feel they are ‘untouchable’. No need to pay attention to history.

No wonder what’s been playing out on a world stage at the moment seems to attract so little serious attention. It might be time to unplug and retreat to some picturesque little place like Alpbach, Austria or Nicosia, Cyprus, or I dunno…….just anywhere distant from the roar of what’s on its way.

#63 Tom from Mississauga on 10.23.22 at 11:50 pm

Ron Butler interview today on the Lead Lag Live:

https://youtu.be/G2PHHPUzi7o

#64 Gulf Breeze on 10.24.22 at 12:28 am

Sounds like actions to curb inflation are causing inflation. The fed will not raise .75, nor will Tiff, as they are cottoning to the fact, finally. “Inflation” is mainly due to climate induced crop failure, supply problems and energy costs due to war. They’re response has been ill timed and quite stupid.

#65 Gotta Love Idiots on 10.24.22 at 12:37 am

Buy in America. Rent in Canada.
Hire local property management to look after your American houses
Have the rents paid in USA dollars to your Canadian banks/ accounts operating with branches in the USA.

#66 yvr_lurker on 10.24.22 at 1:31 am

If I was living in Calgary and had a decent job, there is no way in a zillion years I would move to Toronto for some more lucrative gig; the urban pressure, far-greater expense, and density of Toronto would curb any enthusiasm I might have in having a larger paycheck. Remember that when you are at effectively 200K per year, each dollar of increment is taxed away at 54%. I’d have to be unemployed for a long while to make the transition from Calgary to Toronto.

#67 under the radar on 10.24.22 at 5:13 am

46 This is one of the reasons we sold our fully paid for residential portfolio. I get 4% with zero risk and zero headaches while forest bathing.

#68 DJT on 10.24.22 at 6:02 am

Do not ignore the new pending pandemic or a pending WWIII, both likely and equally able to flip everything on its head again.

#69 Bezengy on 10.24.22 at 7:22 am

#54 Jens on 10.23.22 at 8:34 pm
The obvious solution, of course, isn’t even being talked about: build more rapid transit!
It works in Europe; why not here?
There’s only so much space in Downtown TOR/VAN, and it’s pretty much completely built out. At some point, we have to let people live for less in bunnypatch and shuttle them to the city cores quickly and efficiently.

I know it takes years to build, plus decades of getting retarded politicians at all levels to embrace the idea. But we’ve got to start some day.

————-

Agreed. If there is one thing covid taught us is that many folks can live anywhere and do their work. All of this commuting is unsustainable anyway.

A couple of other points I might add. Why are we subsidizing folks to live in Toronto? There are 90k units last time I checked. Are all those being subsidized actively working or do they just like the city vibe? Homeless folks can be moved out too to other low cost areas as well. Land is simply too expensive to properly house them there. Government can also provide incentives for business to move to other jurisdictions too. Spread out the workforce. Perhaps start with the five big banks and get them to move 50 percent of their workforce out of the city.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.22 at 8:05 am

@#56 X
“Most sellers don’t have a clue as to how bad this may get the next year or two.”

+++
Most sellers dont have a clue…..period.
Anyone buying right now is even more clueless.

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.22 at 8:09 am

@#59 David Eby
“All development red tape will be removed – application to breaking ground will be 10 days.”

+++
Typical NDP govt.
Opening the barn door to let the flies on the dead horse out.

#72 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.22 at 8:15 am

@#55 604am
“I would love to walk to work. I hate commuting.”

+++

We have heard your concerns and have decided to keep raising interest rates until all construction work grinds to a halt.
No more commuting for you.
Enjoy EI/CERB, or whatever budget busting Liberal emergency fund du jour is given out in 2023/24/25.

#73 IHCTD9 on 10.24.22 at 8:58 am

#66 yvr_lurker on 10.24.22 at 1:31 am
If I was living in Calgary and had a decent job, there is no way in a zillion years I would move to Toronto for some more lucrative gig; the urban pressure, far-greater expense, and density of Toronto would curb any enthusiasm I might have in having a larger paycheck. Remember that when you are at effectively 200K per year, each dollar of increment is taxed away at 54%. I’d have to be unemployed for a long while to make the transition from Calgary to Toronto.
_____

Same for me – even from hillbilly central Southern Ontario. I was actually offered a job in the GTA from a competitor a few years back. Huge increase in pay, but still not worth the increased COL and BS involved in actually having to live there. The place smells bad, everyone’s on the hamster wheel, it’s jam-packed full of people, and the traffic is straight out of the bowels of hell.

#74 BNoel on 10.24.22 at 9:10 am

I signed a 5-year fixed 1.69% 18 months ago. Upon renewal the principal will be $360k and my monthly payment will increase by $600 at today’s rates ( lets not even discuss rates at a possible 7.25%), or $7200 per year. So much for a Telsa, a holiday, upgrading education, sports for the kids, or extra principal payments towards credit cards. My wife and I will be able to survive, but it will be tight, very tight. Sadly, it will come at the expense of saving for retirement. I was happy renting, but happier buying because you know what they say, “a happy wife is a happy life”.

#75 Calgary on 10.24.22 at 9:39 am

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/mom-daughter-face-homelessness-buying-080000617.html

Only in Canada?

#76 TheDood on 10.24.22 at 11:12 am

#7 Bankrupting Landlords is good for the Economy on 10.23.22 at 2:31 pm
The whole rental crisis could be more a cultural issue than anything else. People fetishize urban living to a ridiculous point. What’s the point of paying 3000$/month for the “convenience” of living in a big city if you’re permanently broke?

Also, we could be in a “rent bubble”, at least in the Lower Mainland. Landlords over-ask thinking that rents always go up. There’s a 2 bedroom place in my hood ( Burnaby, Highgate) that has been for rent for almost a year now. They can’t find a tenant?
_____________________________

It’s amateur, spec-investor’s trying to cover their monthly. They’re forking out of their own pocket until they find a sucker. It’s the same all over the LM. All it’s going to take is one of these lowering the ask to something reasonable and the rest will follow.

Didn’t these people think this through? Did anyone ever stop to thing that there are NO jobs in Canada that pay the amounts needed to cover these rent prices?

#77 Linda on 10.24.22 at 11:31 am

#67 ‘under’ – When I look at the numbers I sure can understand why you sold. Too much hassle for very low return.

#78 Shawn on 10.24.22 at 11:45 am

The Competition Bureau is Looking into Grocery Greed Flation

I hope they also look into their own role in allowing the sector to merge and consolidate. Have they ever turned down a grocery company merger?

I don’t follow the sector closely but I know Sobeys bought IGA a few years ago. (One competitor gone…) They also bought Canada Safeway. (Or maybe IGA came with Safeway, I forget) This is ridiculous.

I believe Metro had a big merger a few years ago to move into Ontario.

Loblaws bought Provigo at some point.

I think there are many more examples.

The Competition Board does not need to look far to see where the problem lies.

Around 30 years ago in Edmonton, Safeway shut down many small local neighbourhood grocery stores. They apparently sold the land and buildings with a stipulation there could never be a grocery store there again. What kind of B.S. is that. If you sell your land you should not be allowed to put restrictive rules like that on title.

To open a one-off grocery store today would you get access to wholesales at a decent price? How many wholesalers are there?

Just look at the high return on equity for this grocery sector. That tells you there is not much competition. It’s more profitable to put a can of soup on a shelf than to build an electric bus (ask NFI) or to produce wine or build a bridge or a plane as I mentioned yesterday.

#79 Shawn on 10.24.22 at 11:47 am

Purpose built rental housing

For decades the complaint was this was not happening. But it has been for some years now.

I know RioCan has built a lot and continues to build rentals. (Also building condos)

#80 Patty on 10.24.22 at 12:05 pm

Mr. Singh NDP does not like those higher interest rates with mortgages approaching 7% soon. Maybe he his using the same playbook like Mulcair and remortgaging his house 11 times since the 1980’s. They love putting lots of taxes on the people of Canada but when it comes time for them to lose money and pay up oh no there is no merit for higher interest rates. Just pay and stop whining.

#81 IHCTD9 on 10.24.22 at 12:29 pm

#75 Calgary on 10.24.22 at 9:39 am
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/mom-daughter-face-homelessness-buying-080000617.html

Only in Canada?
________

Nothing like an unsophisticated amateur LL + broken government systems. This lady obviously walked right into this situation without a clue what she might be getting herself into. As usual, none of the government agencies want to comment to the media. She had faith in the system too – big mistake.

I think there is a sizable fraction of current home-owners, specuvestors, and amateur LL’s who are unsophisticated, got caught up in the mania, and never had the basic RE street knowledge to properly weigh the risks. A bunch of these didn’t qualify for an A lender, a chunk never should have got any mortgage at all. We’ll see more of these types of horror shows over the next 2 years.

#82 Dr V on 10.24.22 at 1:40 pm

78 Shawn

“They apparently sold the land and buildings with a stipulation there could never be a grocery store there again. What kind of B.S. is that. If you sell your land you should not be allowed to put restrictive rules like that on title.”
——————————————–

Why not? That’s good business. There is a trade though, between the restriction and possible lowering of market value, and the potential for a competitor to open up.

I’ve seen other grocery stores re-purposed. Again, the
new tenant would run the costs to see if it works. In two cases, the grocery store is now occupied by another major retailer.

You’ll like this one better. A local bike shop wanted to re-locate to a nearby plaza of several larger retailers and some smaller local ones. They had given their notice and thought the deal was done. Oops…. Canadian tire had a covenant for their nearby store prohibiting the sale of “sporting goods” within XXX metres of their store. No go for the bike shop…..

#83 millmech on 10.24.22 at 1:41 pm

#81 IHCTD9
You’re missing the most critical part of the story; she is a financial advisor.

#84 Bezengy on 10.24.22 at 1:44 pm

#80 Patty on 10.24.22 at 12:05 pm
Mr. Singh NDP does not like those higher interest rates with mortgages approaching 7% soon. Maybe he his using the same playbook like Mulcair and remortgaging his house 11 times since the 1980’s. They love putting lots of taxes on the people of Canada but when it comes time for them to lose money and pay up oh no there is no merit for higher interest rates. Just pay and stop whining.

—————————-

Mr. Singh should lobby for a cap on lawyers fees, particularly defence lawyers as they are a essential service imo. Maybe capping fees at 5 times the minimum wage would do the trick. $75 per hour is still outrageous but it would help stop the gouging him and his colleagues partake in.

#85 Linda on 10.24.22 at 1:46 pm

#81 ‘I’ – I read the CBC article as well. It was a blueprint of how to make a series of bad financial decisions. First, the buyer goes through a backdoor to purchase a property at below cost. Second, discovers there is a tenant. Third, despite knowing there is a tenant, proceeds to close. Incidentally the law says that a sale can’t close UNLESS the buyer agrees to assume any lease. Fourth, despite the by now obvious tenant issues – as in, tenant wouldn’t let mortgage appraiser in to evaluate property so the bank wouldn’t grant a mortgage – buyer then gets high cost financing in order to purchase the property. Fifth, despite working for a company providing financial advice – a job that required employees to maintain a good credit score – then proceeded to rack up debt trying to service the high rate mortgage as well as cover costs of living prior to occupying the property. Surprise, when company found out credit score wasn’t up to par, employment was terminated ‘for cause’. Meanwhile, mired in both financial as well as legal black holes, said buyer tells tale of woe to media.

There is a saying: ‘Learn from other people’s mistakes’. The irony is the buyer was working as a financial advisor, yet did not seem able to utilize that knowledge on their own behalf. Scary. As for going through the LTB, this has not been the only recent media story about how landlords are facing homelessness due to tenants refusing to leave despite being served legal notice. One thing the buyer in the CBC story said that resonates is this: that they can’t afford to pay for someone else’s social services. Thing is, seems like a lot of folks think that landlords should be doing just that.

#86 Dr V on 10.24.22 at 1:58 pm

Further to my comment above, I should also add the covenant holder can always release the charge……..
if the price is right……

#87 Bdwy on 10.24.22 at 2:06 pm

Nothing like an unsophisticated amateur LL + broken government systems. This lady obviously walked right into this situation without a clue what she might be getting herself into

……..
Perhaps yes she was very unsophisticated. But has since laerned the rules and is following them. The system is the problem. Letting these greasebag tennants stay without paying rent is the problem. In many states a cop with a gun will rightfully show up shortly after rent not paid to stop the theft.

#88 Observer on 10.24.22 at 2:18 pm

#81 IHCTD9 on 10.24.22 at 12:29 pm
#75 Calgary on 10.24.22 at 9:39 am
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/mom-daughter-face-homelessness-buying-080000617.html

Only in Canada?
________

Nothing like an unsophisticated amateur LL

^^^^^^^^^
The lady who purchased the house did so with the intention of moving in, not with the intention of becoming “an unsophisticated amateur LL”. First line of the article begins : “An Ottawa homeowner says she and her daughter could soon be homeless because they can’t move into the townhouse she bought in April due to a tenant who refuses to leave”.

#89 jess on 10.24.22 at 2:24 pm

so is the support the same if given a bill to split?

$7 million — The overall cost of the three-week convoy protest for 17 different Ottawa services, from fire and paramedics to transit and roads, as calculated by its chief financial officer.

$55 million — What the city says it took the Ottawa Police Service to address the demonstration. The figure is based on a draft funding request prepared for Public Safety Canada.

$4.4 million — Ottawa Police Service costs to manage the “Rolling Thunder” protest that descended on the city’s downtown for a weekend in late April, raising concerns about a possible repeat of February.

$8.1 million — How much convoy-related demonstrations near Parliament Hill on Canada Day cost police in Ottawa, who increased the overall security presence in anticipation of their arrival.

732 — The number of formal noise complaints the city’s 311 services received during February. In addition to this, the city says its staff and councillors received “thousands of email complaints.”

3,182 — Parking tickets issued by the city’s bylaw enforcement team from Jan. 28 to Feb. 22.

43 — How many families had childcare interrupted at two municipal childcare centres in downtown Ottawa, each of which closed for nearly 10 days in January and February during the protest.(toronto city news)

#90 Shane on 10.24.22 at 2:26 pm

I have a family, wife, 2 kids and have been in Canada for 6 years now and resisted buying a house in Canada from all sides. My wife, wife’s family, friends. I saw what had happened in Ireland and it looks like I did the smart move. I am working 55 to 60 hour weeks scattered throughout the year from a lot of contract, multiple jobs. I make a good wage, $31 to $34 an hour. I save on childcare others expenses as wife is at home taking care of our household. We now have managed to save $240,000 and rent is going up 7% but our $240,000 is earning $16,000 in just compound interest locked in for the next 10 years mostly TFSAs tax free plus adding $2,500 a month to our future TFSAs, savings. We do not need to buy a house when we already renting the whole house.

#91 Garrett on 10.24.22 at 2:33 pm

Hey Garth, same as Arly, I look forward to your blog everyday. Thanks again for the great insight. Much appreciated.

#92 Shawn on 10.24.22 at 2:40 pm

Markets need rules

#82 Dr V on 10.24.22 at 1:40 pm
78 Shawn

“They apparently sold the land and buildings with a stipulation there could never be a grocery store there again. What kind of B.S. is that. If you sell your land you should not be allowed to put restrictive rules like that on title.”
——————————————–

Why not? That’s good business. There is a trade though, between the restriction and possible lowering of market value, and the potential for a competitor to open up.

******************************
Of course it was good business for Safeway. I’m just saying any restriction on land use like that should be illegal. You buy it you own it. The former owner should have zero say in the future use. But should be free to keep it if that is their best solution.

This is similar to non-compete agreements for employees and those who sell a business. The legal system limits those greatly.

As for Canadian Tire banning another sports store in a shopping plaza. Well, that’s not land titles getting involved. That is a landlord and tenant issue. Slimy but I’m (reluctantly) okay with that being legal.

#93 jess on 10.24.22 at 3:08 pm

..” According to a letter sent by commission lawyers today, they believe Ford and Jones have evidence that would be relevant to the inquiry’s mandate.

The commission has the authority to summon witnesses to testify.”

#94 Jussayin on 10.24.22 at 3:14 pm

Narratives are fun

https://apnews.com/article/abortion-health-tate-reeves-greenwood-mississippi-92e59302abe30a8afd74ee5d80b94b3f?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

And:

Next hour natty gas going negative in EU. Canadian LNG supplies would have been a boondoggle.

#95 Vote for John Tory now on 10.24.22 at 3:16 pm

Today you must vote for John Tory and his constituents. You will be rewarded with electing a great leader.

Let’s go! Vote for Tory!

#96 Chimingin on 10.24.22 at 3:18 pm

#90 Shane–well done! I hope you get a chance to travel around and enjoy your new country as well. Time flies.

#97 Observer on 10.24.22 at 3:22 pm

#90 Shane on 10.24.22 at 2:26 pm
We do not need to buy a house when we already renting the whole house.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Kind of like, ‘why buy the cow, when we can get the milk for free’.

#98 IHCTD9 on 10.24.22 at 3:27 pm

#88 Observer on 10.24.22 at 2:18 pm

The lady who purchased the house did so with the intention of moving in, not with the intention of becoming “an unsophisticated amateur LL”.
___

Doesn’t sound like it to me. More like she *has* to move in. The article keeps this point a little vague.

“Kalu became a small landlord when she purchased a townhome in the city’s eastern suburb of Orléans.

Small landlords — those who typically own just one or two rental units — can become homeless when a tenant refuses to pay rent and leave a space the landlord needs for their own accommodations.”

Regardless – she really hung her caboose in the breeze with this deal. No one who was paying attention during the pandemic would trust the LTB to get anything done anytime soon. I’d be betting on quite the opposite. She bought it sight unseen. She bought it during the pandemic frenzy. She bought it from a wholesaler. She must have known any financial left turn would put her job at risk, but she went ahead with it anyway.

No way would I call this lady a sophisticated well informed buyer, LL or otherwise.

#99 IHCTD9 on 10.24.22 at 3:36 pm

#87 Bdwy on 10.24.22 at 2:06 pm
Nothing like an unsophisticated amateur LL + broken government systems. This lady obviously walked right into this situation without a clue what she might be getting herself into

……..
Perhaps yes she was very unsophisticated. But has since laerned the rules and is following them. The system is the problem. Letting these greasebag tennants stay without paying rent is the problem. In many states a cop with a gun will rightfully show up shortly after rent not paid to stop the theft.
___

I can’t recall which Politicians condoned the “keep your rent” meme, but they basically gave permission for this kind of stuff. Now so many tenants are abusing it that the LTB is overwhelmed. Not to mention it’s consequence free. Some tenants make a career out of this kind stuff. They know all the rules, and they can milk a LL for a year of free living before finally being forced out. Then on to the next one.

#100 jack on 10.24.22 at 3:43 pm

re #84 Bezengy

$75 / hour for a lawyer is outrageous? I don’t know many lawyers making that little – maybe fresh out of school. Roofers around here are making $50 an hour with no experience out of high school.

#101 Dr V on 10.24.22 at 4:07 pm

92 Shawn

“I’m just saying any restriction on land use like that should be illegal. You buy it you own it. The former owner should have zero say in the future use.”
————————————————

So if I sell my property to a nature conservancy I cannot stipulate that the land be used only for that purpose?

and

“As for Canadian Tire banning another sports store in a shopping plaza. Well, that’s not land titles getting involved. That is a landlord and tenant issue. Slimy but I’m (reluctantly) okay with that being legal.”
————————————————

Well Shawn, that situation was also covered by documents registered on title. It could be incorporated in a lease agreement, but should receive its own charge
number in the registration. In this case, the covenant was placed on a neighbouring parcel for which CT had no lease. Surprised it didnt get caught sooner.

Cant recall all the details, but there could be clauses stipulating that Canadian tire (or a corporate succesor)
will release the charge upon non-renewal of their lease.
And land titles doesnt get “involved”. It is up to the parties to abide by and enforce the restrictions.

There is nothing either surprising or nefarious about any of this. Everybody looking out for themselves.

#102 Tony on 10.24.22 at 6:01 pm

How does high or higher interest rates hurt the renter? Low and lower interest rates drove up home prices which drove up rents. Now the opposite is happening. The lag period of time when rents start to fall may be longer than the standard 12 to 18 months but rents will collapse just like they’ve always done in all of history as home prices fall.

#103 Jenn on 10.25.22 at 1:54 pm

I rent and always have. The fixed expenses and no surprises enables me to save my money. I earn a modest living, but I’m on track to a reasonably comfortable retirement. I also live in a high rise purpose-built rental, so no being shoved out by a LL who wants to move in. And it’s up to code and in good shape, so renovictions are not a threat.
We need more of these types of rentals and I’ve been saying it for 15 years, but any that are built now in ON would have no rent control, meaning your rent could skyrocket after 1 year instead of a nominal raise of 1-2.5%. Too dangerous to rent something like that. Your finances could implode at the drop of a hat.
So despite the fact we need more of those types of buildings, and despite how nice I’m sure they’d be (though probably also small shoeboxes like the condos they build these days), I’m happy enough to stay put in my spacious yet old-school unit.
People say renting is throwing money away, or paying someone else’s mortgage. These days, it kinda looks like a lot of those people are simply renting their new house from the bank. If all you cover each month is interest, how much do you really own it?
Also, I have no idea where people are finding 4k a month to throw at a mortgage (before utilities, property taxes, maintenance and sometimes even condo fees) but count me out. Couldn’t afford that even if I wanted to.

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