No place like home

.
RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
.

For a number years now we’ve preferred the US equity markets and have maintained an ‘overweight’ position in US stocks. This has been a good call since the S&P 500 has been the standout performer over the last 10+ years, trouncing the Canadian, international and emerging equity markets.

This can be seen below where I chart the performance of the S&P 500 and TSX Composite. Since 2013 the S&P 500 has risen by an impressive 150% versus the lagging TSX at just 50%. So, by holding a larger weight in US stocks, our portfolio and clients have greatly benefitted from this stronger performance. But that was then. This is now.

Recently we have started to shift our client portfolios more into Canadian stocks as we now see the potential for the TSX to outperform in the coming years, as it has so far in 2022.

Today I’ll review the bullish case for the TSX, and why we’re adding to Canadian stocks.

S&P 500 Smoked the TSX Over the last Decade

Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments

First, contrary to what some of our politicians believe in Ottawa, Canada remains a very resource-heavy country so the direction of commodity prices is a key driver of our economy and stock market.

Looking at the energy sector, it accounts for roughly 10% of our country’s GDP and 1.5% of our labour market. Resources represent an even bigger part of our Canadian stock market. Currently, the energy and materials sectors represent a combined 30% of the TSX. In contrast, these sectors represent less than 8% of the S&P 500. Clearly, if commodities go for a run then this should bode well for the TSX.

Below I capture this important relationship. In the chart I overlay a commodity index with the relative performance of the TSX to the S&P 500. When commodities do well, like they did in the early 2000s, then the TSX outperforms. Since 2010, commodities have been out of favour, with the TSX greatly underperforming the S&P 500.

We like commodities over the next few years (commodity prices go through cycles typically lasting six years and tend to do well when inflation is high), so this could bode well for the TSX.

TSX Performance Strongly tied to Commodity Prices

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Second, the fundamental case is starting to look better for Canadian stocks. Canadian stocks are cheap trading at 11x forward earnings and 1.8x price-to-book (P/B), versus US stocks at 17x earnings and 3.7x P/B. Additionally, thanks in part to our banks, Canadian stocks are yielding 3.4% versus US stocks at just 1.7%.

Valuations for Canadian, US and International Stocks

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Third, I see the potential for a ‘catch up’ trade with the TSX. Over the last 10 years the S&P 500 has returned 11.75% annually versus the TSX at 7.25% annualized, resulting in a 4.5% annual outperformance from the S&P 500. However, over the very long-term (since 1950), the S&P 500 has outperformed by a smaller 2%. So, the TSX is due for better returns and I think that time is now.

Finally, and most importantly, the TSX Composite has broken out from its long-term downtrend versus the S&P 500. We incorporate technical analysis in our investment approach and lean heavily on ‘relative strength’. Relative strength is simply comparing one market against another to isolate trends and determine which market is outperforming.

Below is a relative strength chart of the TSX to the S&P 500. You can see that for the last 10 years the TSX has been in a relative downtrend against the S&P 500, but recently has broken above this well- defined downtrend. The reason for this is that the TSX is down a gentler 11% this year versus the S&P 500 down 22%.

I believe this breakout could be signaling a major trend change. Essentially, the technicals appear to be confirming the fundamentals that the TSX looks set to outperform.

TSX breaks out from a Relative Downtrend vs S&P 500

Source: Stockcharts.com, Turner Investments

So there you have it!

Garth, Doug and I don’t sit on our hands during this challenging period. We’re actively managing our portfolio and tweaking it over time to better position clients and portfolios. A good example of this is how we’re starting to trim back our US exposure and adding to Canadian stocks, as we see the potential for the TSX to outperform over the next few years.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

105 comments ↓

#1 Robert Ash on 10.22.22 at 10:40 am

Let’s hope this trend continues, especially given the Strength of the US $, and the conversion rate shortfall, which of course is an added incentive for Foreign investors. I am concerned though, that the Political forces may not be aligned with these trends, and in fact my not support resource development, in favor of Climate Change goals, and objectives. Our current GDP might be quite different if Pipelines to move Canadian Oil and Gas to Asia, and now Europe had been completed. There was no lack of interest until the Liberals, gained office. Direct Foreign investment in Canada, is the Key, and I hope we change our posture vis a vis this opportunity.

#2 Søren Angst on 10.22.22 at 10:40 am

Man dear to my heart.

Saw the same comparison chart at the “Unspeakable” web site:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/more-pain-for-canadian-stocks-as-earnings-dampen-scotiabank-says-1.1835909

And concluded exactly what you did all by my lonesome, minus the odd chart(s):

1. Canada still a nation of Hewers and Drawers.
2. Energy saves the day, esp. yeah oil, YET AGAIN.

In fact Tweeted about it this AM CET before the Blog today.

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1583753608637476864

I liked the side swipe to the current 2 Bricks Short of a Full Load Gov in charge …

“contrary to what some of our politicians believe in Ottawa”

——————-

Nicely written Ryan. Indeed.

#3 Søren Angst on 10.22.22 at 10:47 am

Ryan got his Gov side swipe in.

Here is mine the diatribe that it is. Today was straw, Camel’s back day for me.

————-

Dear Chrystia & Justin Antoinette and GG,

I’d thought I’d read it all in my Paleo days BUT THIS takes the CAKE, Marie Antoinette Style.

Canada must remain ‘fiscally responsible’ as recession fears grow, Trudeau says
https://globalnews.ca/news/9217165/canada-fiscal-responsibility-trudeau-recession/

PM FREELOADER SILVERSPOON gets the Cdn taxpayer to pay $55,000 to keep his family fed and has THE NERVE to tell Cdns ***read between the lines*** they should be fiscally responsible.
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/canadian-taxpayers-on-hook-for-55k-of-trudeau-familys-annual-grocery-bill

CAPITANA Obvious from her ROSEDALE Edifice, says the same to Cdns in as many words, by inference.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-difficult-days-ahead-economy-1.6621800

Sorry Garth, I don’t care what verbal bollocking you give me but they are FIRST CLASS

INSENSITIVE

Try instead, LEADING BY EXAMPLE and showing Cdns cutbacks, J & C Antoinette + GG, that YOU are going to make in life’s spending.

Like don’t spend $3210/plate for catering on Boondoggles to the Middle East.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/governor-general-entourage-amass-100k-in-flight-catering-bill-during-trip-to-middle-east-1.5947195

SO out of touch.

I mean, you know, even Commenters HERE in the BLOG FOR THE WELL HEELED RICH AND FAMOUS

[Bold & Beautiful in the case of My Liege]

have said they have had to cut back on spending because of high inflation.

—————————–

Meanwhile, you and your Journalist GFF, instruct Cdns about fiscal responsibility by INFERENCE, impending fiscal DOOM directly and your GG is unrepentant in her lavish FOODIE ways.

Chrystia, Justin & Mary S. Antoinette, please RESIGN. The lot of you. Your replacements can do no worse than yourselves.

And ya Canada, I’m having a Bad Lefty, Care About the Poor & Disadvantaged, Hair Day.

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 10:51 am

Interest summation Ryan.
Does the cheaper Canuck buck also help to make TSX companies more attractive to the international investor?

#5 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 11:05 am

Interesting whale/DFO interaction up around Texada Island a few days ago…

Watch til the end….

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/10/21/humpback-whale-rescued-bc/

#6 The Great Gazoo on 10.22.22 at 11:06 am

Excellent post Ryan. Think your analysis is solid and agree that Canada is good value and should do well in the next few years relative to the S&P.

#7 Søren Angst on 10.22.22 at 11:08 am

Honest to God, tell me it’s not so.

https://twitter.com/RE_MarketWatch/status/1583645408504741888

If true, well the 7 Deadly Sins the disease.

The end game will be Creative Destruction.

Take money out of the hands of the financially reckless for a decade or more and give it to those that will invest wisely.

Then again, history repeats in Cdn RE; thus, so much for that euphemism – yet, Hope is last to die.

#8 Turner Nation on 10.22.22 at 11:09 am

GO CANADA EH!

#9 UCC on 10.22.22 at 11:21 am

Go maple go…..

#10 Phylis on 10.22.22 at 11:28 am

Msci morgan stantley composite index.
To save a few from searching.

#11 Phylis on 10.22.22 at 11:29 am

Stanley… so much for spelling.

#12 LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo on 10.22.22 at 11:39 am

Thanks Ryan! I appreciate your thorough explanation on rotating away from US towards Canada. Do you think that there will be an opportunity around the “peak” of rates to rotate back towards QQQ or would you be more interested in locking in juicy long-term bond yields at that point?

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 11:42 am

Is Russia intending to wipe out Kherson city with a Dam ?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-occupation-authorities-say-civilians-must-leave-kherson-immediately-2022-10-22/

Ukrainian authorities have accused the Russians of mining a large dam several kilometers above the city of Kherson with the intention of flooding the river valley and wiping out attacking Ukrainian forces.
WWII tactics.

Putin’s arguments for “saving” the Donbas from “extremist nazi’s” is wearing a little thin these days…

#14 Shawn on 10.22.22 at 11:44 am

Is there Grocery Store Greed-flation?

(If so, another profit area for the TSX)

CBC hosted a debate between Jim Stanford (he’s a former United Auto worker chief economist as I recall) and Dalhousie professor Sylvain Charlebois.

As a capitalist guy and share owner and something of an academic, I expected the professor to demolish Jim Stanford.

Instead, the opposite. The professor said we have to look at percentage profits and margins (true) but then said profits SHOULD go up over time(a bit weak but also basically true).

But Stanford countered, okay look at percentages. look at percent return on capital that’s what really counts and it is UP. Explain that.

The professor should have said well there is competition and that takes care of things. Stanford anticipated that argument and said look in Canada there are only 3 major grocery chains and basically very little competition(He mentioned the collusion on the $2.00 wage decrease on the same day in 2020, he did not mention the well known bread price fixing collusion).

Stanford noted volumes are DOWN while prices are up. The smug professor said well in theory if volume is down stores reduce prices. (Guess this guy does not do the grocery shopping in his household).

Bottom line, CBC is accused of being lefty but the righty professor here was given ample air time and was demolished by Jim Stanford.

Jim is right there are few grocery chains. The pathetic Competition Bureau in this country approves just about every merger and is currently wasting time going after Royal Bank for lending to oil companies while advertising itself as Green. The Competition Bureau has has been incredibly weak for decades at least.

The weak Competition Bureau is another reason we should indeed see continued good profits on the TSX. (Banks, Insurers, grocery, telcos for example) Name a retail facing industry in this country that is highly competitive with a dozen or more players. I can’t think of much if any.

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2088118339914

#15 baloney Sandwitch on 10.22.22 at 12:13 pm

Yeah, but — there is a fatal flaw in your analysis — you are comparing TSX in Canadian dollars vs. SPX is US dollars. If you were to convert the TSX to USD any recent outperformance would go away.

#16 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 12:20 pm

China’s strongman Xi Jinping solidifies his unprecedented 3rd term as Leader by removing any who may challenge or oppose him.

https://www.burnabynow.com/world-news/china-reaffirms-xis-dominance-removes-no-2-li-keqiang-5992414

Expect to hear more “Xi Jinping Thought” over the next few years.
Chairman Xi loathes the West and believes we are in decline.
China’s “greatness” will be confirmed under Chairman Xi who resented the Wests’ subjugation of China for decades.

Lets see how his Communist ordered iron rule handles a Chinese real estate collapse and a slowing world wide economy for cheap chinese goods.

His “in your face Wolf Warrior” policies are beginning to grate with just about every foreign country that has experienced them.

Dont forget to wear a “Winnie the Poo” t-shirt when you visit Beijing next year Ponzie.
I hear the Chinese authorities love a foreigner espousing a political statement.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjtrODvnvT6AhV2AjQIHf_jBVgQFnoECB8QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fblogs-china-blog-40627855&usg=AOvVaw12r3WOLgCR-mrvJSs4DA4i

#17 DLT INC on 10.22.22 at 12:32 pm

As we shift our attention from one sector of the economy to another and direct our investments from financials and consumables to resources the forces which dictate the direction in which the planet is going does not care. This juggernaught continues to follow the path that mankind’s previous and current actions have laid out. Global warming and all that that entails is continuing whether we like it or not. Like passengers on the Titanic we can argue about which seats are most comfortable and what menu items will be most satisfying but at the end of the day, if we do not deal with the approaching iceberg none of this will matter because we will all drown. There will be no exceptions and it won’t matter what rate of return we are getting as we consume the limited nonrenewable resources. The returns we celebrate actually represents the consumption of capital and isn’t actually income at all.

#18 Victor Llearna on 10.22.22 at 12:36 pm

It Canada is stuck with Trudeau in power perpetually due to NDP propping them up I’m not so sure TSX will perform as well as you think. Even if trudeau loses net election if conservatives only win minority govt, we will immediately see an NDP-Liberal coalition which could be worse than the ‘support’ arrangement they have now.
With that guy stifling the energy sector and making it expensive to do business in canada in other sectors due to his tax and spend policies the TSX may suffer

#19 cuke and tomato picker on 10.22.22 at 12:44 pm

Yes Canada has a great potential and will be the place to be for the next generation. There is great opportunity across this wonderful country for those willing to” WORK FOR IT” and the TSX will make some steady gains in future years. This country can provide people with the charmed life however it does take some EXTRA EFFORT.

#20 TurnerNation on 10.22.22 at 12:47 pm

Re. Yesterday’s blog.

Pronouns? Smoking man would have had lots to say with this topic.

Mine are He His Him , and Blog Dog.
I might also lift my head a bit for “Hey buddy”

#21 Old Boot on 10.22.22 at 12:48 pm

#124 the Jaguar on 10.22.22 at 10:13 amcrowdedelevatorfartz

Trump stacked the Supreme Court with anti abortion religious zealots.
And 50% of voters…are women.
Biden’s democrats will prevail in the midterms.
‘Prochoice beats No choice every time.
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

……..

Why is ‘abortion’ still being talked about and used as a ‘political divide’ issue? Weaponized in every election even in Canada. “Choice” and “Freedom” can be found at every pharmacy. Stop clogging up hospitals and clinics with your lazy ass solutions to unwanted pregnancy. Yes, I said it, and I’m not taking it back.

—————-

Indeed.

Dems have had 50 years to codify R v. W, but they’d rather campaign on hot-button issues from the past as though they’re present-day problems, while ignoring the significant progress that has been made in the intervening decades.

Liberal feminism has much to answer for, but letting men think they can, or should be, feminists is high on that list. Now men expect to be congratulated for supporting abortion on demand, prostitution, porn and letting men ruin women’s sports. Rather a low bar, especially in a country that still doesn’t have guaranteed maternity leave or universal healthcare, and sports a shockingly high maternal death rate.

Plus Planned Parenthood was started by eugenicists, a tradition they uphold to this day by providing sterilizing hormone blockers to mostly proto-gay and neurodivergent children.

/rant off

—————–

Here’s hoping for a Canadian commodities boom of such epic proportions that it merits its own Wikipedia entry, and investors who missed the boat kick themselves for at least a decade.

#22 Dr V on 10.22.22 at 12:51 pm

Nothing really new Ryan, but always good to re-visit. I have been heavy maple in the non-registered since 2020 as I crave tax-advantaged dividends for retirement
income. The RRSPs and TFSAs remain more globally
balanced.

However, with Canada’s small and undiversified market, it can be a challenge to take any profits from out-sized growth in the financial, energy or materials sectors if
you hold broad index or “rules-based” dividend funds. To augment these investments, small positions in sector specific funds, or even individual stocks, can be used. Just remember the reason you purchased them, and
dont be afraid to trim/unload/re-balance them when
warranted.

#23 Quintilian on 10.22.22 at 12:54 pm

#15 baloney Sandwitch on 10.22.22 at 12:13 pm
Yeah, but — there is a fatal flaw in your analysis — you are comparing TSX in Canadian dollars vs. SPX is US dollars. If you were to convert the TSX to USD any recent outperformance would go away.

Agreed, and also, commodities can be very volatile, and the bottom can be a very long way down.
Bit strange , Ryan usually defaults to the “B&D” axiom , yet the TSX is stone age weighted.

#24 argle on 10.22.22 at 1:06 pm

Summation: Canadians can’t afford USD any more, so TSX it is!

#25 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 1:29 pm

Hurray!
BMO has preapproved me for a Credit card!

BMO preferred rate 17.5%
BMO student card 20.99%

BMO default rates ( if you miss your minimum payment by the due date) 23.99%

BMO Airmiles (default rate ) 24.99%
Cash advance (default rate) 27.99%
BMO Visa credit card default rate (IF you miss 2 monthly payments in a row the 3rd payment rate is) 28.99%

Time to start investing in ….Trustees in Bankruptcy……

#26 Balmuto on 10.22.22 at 1:33 pm

Yes, our stock markets and currency are closely linked to the commodity cycle. Much like Australia’s. Markets don’t really care who our prime minister is. It’s not about Trudeau and wasn’t about Harper.

Strong C$ and TSX outperformance will inevitably follow if this commodity bull market has legs.

#27 Bob Fanashewa on 10.22.22 at 1:38 pm

DELETED

#28 Søren Angst on 10.22.22 at 1:43 pm

#14 Shawn

Revoking your AB citizenship for a lack of salt of the earth common sense.

2 well heeled talking about Jag’s triumphant victory of getting 1 grocery chain to back off of NO NAME food increases until the end of January.

Are YOU KIDDING ME?

Do you really think that for a moment those 2 milquetoasts have even a clue what 40% of Cdns are going thru?

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1583113632480518144

Let alone even thinking that the massive savings in NO NAME are going to turn around the above Household Net Income morass and heaven forbid, impoverish or enrich Corp Canada bottom lines?

Reductio ad absurdum debate.

Both in the Give your Head a Shake department. Self-aggrandizement is all it was about. Stealing valour.

#29 Pay attention on 10.22.22 at 1:45 pm

When people who consider themselves ‘conservative’ are apologists for inflationary government policies, you know the current mild deflation in assets is temporary, very temporary.

Currency devaluation is here to stay because not even the so called conservatives oppose it.

Not that it would have gone away, it’s been a feature of society since the invention of money after all. (China’s evolution to a supplier of cheap goods to the rest of the world being one of the only reasons we have had consistent single digit inflation instead of double digit.)

Keep that powder dry and get ready to buy some inflation hedges, real estate being the best option there although some commodities like oil and gold will likely do well as soon as the political pressure on the central banks to ease up get too much. We are approaching that point quickly.

Funny how ‘supply chains’ are to blame for inflation but central banks are using monetary policy to control it.

Can’t quite figure out how high interest rates help get chip factories built or container ships unloaded myself.

#30 Grocery Greed on 10.22.22 at 1:51 pm

If grocery stores can set prices, why haven’t they done so before?

I guess they have been altruists for 40 years and only decided to get greedy during the last 2 years of money supply growth the likes of which have never been seen before in North America.

#31 LG on 10.22.22 at 2:02 pm

Correct me if I’m wrong: Resources don’t hold value until they are made into something.

Can businesses in Canada get the resources to market?

#32 Tinfoil Hat Nutter on 10.22.22 at 2:21 pm

Another conspiracy theory comes true:

Aussie Bank Begins Linking Customer Transactions To Carbon Footprint

In another foretaste of potential future ‘carbon allowance’ limits, a major bank in Australia has introduced a new feature that links purchases to a customer’s carbon footprint and warns them when they are going over the average.

Australia’s Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has partnered with Cogo, a “carbon management solutions” company, to launch the new feature, which is part of CBA’s online banking platform.

The bank gives the customer the option to “pay a fee” to offset their carbon footprint, with the average listed as 1,280 kilograms, a long way from the ‘sustainable’ figure of 200 kilograms.

..

Everyone would be issued with a ‘carbon allowance card’ “that would entail all adults receiving an equal tradable carbon allowance that reduces over time in line with national [carbon] targets.”

The authors make it clear that the program would be a “national mandatory policy.”

Carbon units would be “deducted from the personal budget with every payment of transport fuel, home-heating fuels and electricity bills,” and anyone going over the limit would be forced to purchase additional units in the personal carbon market from those with excess to sell.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/aussie-bank-begins-linking-customer-transactions-carbon-footprint

#33 Søren Angst on 10.22.22 at 2:34 pm

I warned you all.

Civil Unrest.

In Italia.

By a Swede Journalist in Italia b!tching about the our max room temps not realizing there is an energy crunch going on.

https://twitter.com/PeterSweden7/status/1583778652382064640

Italians mostly apologetic. Nutbar Americans and Cdns and their lockdown, climate change BS chiming in.

Then there’s my chime in with some timely news from his Sweden …

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1583886312587030531

#34 Phylis on 10.22.22 at 2:34 pm

#30 Grocery Greed on 10.22.22 at 1:51 pm
Xxxxxxx
Yes they have. Didn’t you apply for the bread scandle settlement? Spoken by yet another non shopper.
Ps. Spam substitute on sale this week in southern ont.

#35 Shawn on 10.22.22 at 2:58 pm

Corporate Gouging?

#30 Grocery Greed on 10.22.22 at 1:51 pm
If grocery stores can set prices, why haven’t they done so before?

I guess they have been altruists for 40 years and only decided to get greedy during the last 2 years of money supply growth the likes of which have never been seen before in North America.

**********************************
Great points and this is the argument the Dal prof should have made. Same for alleged gasoline retailer gouging.

But I wills say I find it interesting that the return on equity for putting a can of soup on a shelf has been far higher and more consistent than for a lot of tougher industries that I have followed.

Look at AECON a giant construction company that builds our largest infrastructure and makes peanuts. Bombardier could not make a dime on planes. Andrew Peller a large winery makes almost nothing and seems to be forced to sell imported plonk in a box for under $10 a liter all taxes in. They face stiff competition from overseas and most of their sales re imported plonk instead of Canadian wine. A land developer I own in Alberta averages 7% return on equity. These are truly competitive businesses. Terrible businesses.

The grocery business in Canada is consolidated and does not face stiff competition. Why is that?

Still, your point is valid, at least in theory.

#36 Don Guillermo on 10.22.22 at 3:24 pm

#125 Dharma Bum on 10.22.22 at 10:29 am
#97 Old Boot

“It is better to have a permanent income than to be fascinating.” – – Oscar Wilde
———————————————————————
Please refrain from relevantly quoting intelligent, scholarly, or otherwise interesting and knowledgable people.

#####

This gentleman isn’t scholarly but this quote describes certain situations well.

“We’re lost but we’re making good time.”
Yogi Berra

#37 Bucky on 10.22.22 at 3:42 pm

#10 Phylis, Thanks! Looking at the Sector Weighting seems like financials are weighted very high. I do like the real estate weighting though, hopefully mostly retail.

Financials 32.48%, Energy 19.94%, Materials 12.1%, Industrials 11.92%, Information Technology 5.7%, Utilities 4.71%, Consumer Staples 4.61%, Consumer Discretionary 3.85%, Communication Services 2.3%, Real Estate 1.93%, Health Care 0.46%

#38 Faron on 10.22.22 at 4:10 pm

#21 Old Boot on 10.22.22 at 12:48 pm
#124 the Jaguar on 10.22.22 at 10:13

Wow Garth, just wow. These two commenters are so, extremely far from understanding the issue which I made clear for you and you hid from your governed discourse here. By publishing their utter nonsense and hiding my comment that highlights the very real and very often painful reasons women seek abortions, you are further cracking the door open to abortion rights (supported by the vast majority in Canada and the majority in the US) being legislated away here in Canada. I’m extremely unimpressed and disheartened.

Faron

Not an abortion blog, dude. – Garth

#39 Faron on 10.22.22 at 4:15 pm

#21 Old Boot on 10.22.22 at 12:48 pm
#124 the Jaguar on 10.22.22 at 10:13

Apparently it takes a man to remind you that the vast majority of women very, very strongly disagree with you. Men should have no legislative say in this issue. If they didn’t, the right would have been enshrined ages ago. You are both incredibly off base here.

#40 Flop.. on 10.22.22 at 4:23 pm

Somewhere between 10 and 15 years ago, when we used to go looking at an area with cheaper condos in Vancouver, before settling on long term renting in Flopville, we used to go shopping at the Champlain Mall.

Didn’t go there for years, save the one time I drove by at peak pandemic pandemonium, when there was a 300 meter line up in the car park at the local Superstore, waiting to buy rationed toilet paper.

My probation officer was out of town earlier this year, so I did what I normally do when he’s gone, took the ankle bracelet off for the day and got out of Flopville for a few hours.

When I used to go over there, an old duck would be stacking the shelves and we used to chat it up.

I thought she would have been retired by now, but when I walked in earlier this year, there she was in aisle 5, putting pasta sauce on the shelf.

“How you been?” I asked in my bestest English.

Alright, was the measured response, and we quickly started talking about the cost of living spiralling out of control, which I had simply assumed was why she was still going for it after all these years, but she told me she didn’t like staying home all day.

“You just gotta shop the specials”, was the advice of the chiseled veteran.

It was a simple line, but it has stuck with me in recent months, I mean who doesn’t look at the on sale stickers when shopping, but it was well intentioned advice, and I’ve tried to act on it a little bit more lately, including today.

Just got back from No Frills, $70, 4 bags of groceries, didn’t feel ripped off in any way, some days shopping stinks, and some days you wonder what all the fuss is about.

Bit like airline travel, if you’ve gotta get to a certain destination, on a certain day, they’re most likely going to sock it too you, flexible travel dates and destinations is the only way I know how to even attempt to give them some of their own medicine.

Flights and a weeks accommodation in Phoenix in a 4star hotel at the upcoming Xmas break for less than a thousand dollars was my latest attempt at not bankrupting myself and still having something to look forward too.

Anyway, what happened at the supermarket, today?

They had processed cheese for 1.99 a packet, they’ve been selling it for $4.99, big savings so I got 4 packs which will last me months, even though I know I shouldn’t be eating that stuff after watching Morgan Spurlock throw a slice and it stuck to his kitchen cupboard.

Granola Bars, I choke a few down at morning tea time at work, what I’ve had to do to keep the cost down on them, is instead of just buying the 5 in a box ones, switch to the family size, which I’m not sure if that’s illegal as I don’t have any kids.

Please don’t tell on me…

M48BC

#41 Nonplused on 10.22.22 at 4:49 pm

Let’s see, energy makes up 10% of Canadian GDP and raw materials (including energy I presume) make up 30%? How much would it be including agriculture, or is that in raw materials too? Either way let’s use 30% so we have a number.

And who would be our largest competitor in this sector? Well, if it is just energy that would be Saudi Arabia, but for energy & materials I bet it’s Russia. And who just went offline? Russia. So yes, Canada looks good for the foreseeable future. All we need to do is get rid of Trudeau, but I think that’s coming. But one is advised not to try and time markets. Allocation is really just “timing light”. But hey, nothing is without risk. I’d be comfortable being overweight Canada right now, whatever “overweight” is.

It’s time to “buy all the things”. Materials are things. Stocks of companies that produce things are a derivative of things. Things with leverage if you will. So after you insulate the attic & get a high efficiency furnace, and buy that new Pan-America Harley*, Canadian energy and material producers are a good thing to buy.

(*Disclaimer: I’m not going to buy a Pan-America. I already have 3 motorcycles. But I sure want one.)

———————————

“We like commodities over the next few years (commodity prices go through cycles typically lasting six years and tend to do well when inflation is high), so this could bode well for the TSX.”

The problem with this statement is that it is kind of “chicken or egg” reasoning. Yes, inflation and rising commodity prices are correlated, but which one causes the other? Or can both cause the other, depending on the driver? Or is it a positive feedback loop? But regardless, what we’ve got at least globally and especially in Europe for the near to medium term is scarcity not of money but of energy, materials, and agriculture. Econ 101 says scarcity drives prices up. And this is a case where interest rates cannot alleviate the scarcity, if anything they reduce supply by restricting capital. Therefore interest rates must rise until they cause demand destruction. So they may have room to run a lot higher yet, with all the consequences that would entail.

Yes, folks, it is entirely within the realm of the possible that mortgage rates will continue to rise until you have to chose between paying the mortgage and heating the house.

I’ve done the experiments. Things like insulation and mechanical improvements help, but it takes money up front that could be used to pay the mortgage now, which is why people don’t do it, and the payback is measured in years. It’s the same reason people don’t trade in their V8’s in response to gas prices until the V8 wears out. It’s too much money up front. The economics are not positive until the car wears out and needs to be replaced anyway.

But I’m still not going to replace my truck with one of those turbo inline 4’s. There is no replacement for displacement. Sure, an eco-engine will pull a trailer. For a while. Screaming like a jet engine the whole time. Then you need a new one. So do you save enough gas to justify buying a new engine more frequently? Probably not. It takes energy to make an engine too. Everything is energy. Even matter itself.

—————————-

To all the folks over the years who have stated, sometimes firmly, that Garth is out to lunch because house prices kept going up, I say you are correct, “so far”. But there are two components to any forecast: “what”, and “when”. It’s pretty hard to get them both right. But if you step outside of time and try and look at it as a continuum, you see that anything that must happen eventually does, and anything that cannot go on indefinitely eventually doesn’t. The trick is to place your bets in such a way that you don’t get taken out of the game by leverage or a single hand before the fulness of time brings the totality of results back in line with the odds. And then you still end up dead.

So buy that Pan-America if you don’t already have 3 motorcycles. Tell your wife you are saving on gas and thus saving the planet. After all, who doesn’t want to save the planet? Only evil people. Your wife isn’t evil, is she?

#42 Michael in-north-york on 10.22.22 at 4:53 pm

#13 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 11:42 am

Putin’s arguments for “saving” the Donbas from “extremist nazi’s” is wearing a little thin these days…
===

Yes. The nazis are not in Donbass and not in Kyiv.

The nazis are in Kremlin.

#43 Cheese on 10.22.22 at 5:01 pm

More XEG, AKE and LAC.

I am making mistakes in real time.

#44 Lower the Boom...er not on 10.22.22 at 5:01 pm

Yogism 2: “My logic on results has always been to know I’m done when it’s over- for example, I knew a guy who drove himself to drink, so I made sure he took taxis”.

#45 Faron on 10.22.22 at 5:03 pm

Not an abortion blog, dude. – Garth

And that’s right and good. But that begs the question: who approved the abortion-rights centric comments below?

#21 Old Boot on 10.22.22 at 12:48 pm
#124 the Jaguar on 10.22.22 at 10:13
#116 Built to Spec on 10.22.22 at 3:27 am

I’m very surprised by this distortion in your otherwise very even playing field. Regardless, I’ll abide by it.

#46 Catalyst on 10.22.22 at 5:04 pm

Loading up on financials and energy as we head into a doozy of a recession doesnt seem like a great idea.

#47 Ryan Lewenza on 10.22.22 at 5:05 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz “Interest summation Ryan.
Does the cheaper Canuck buck also help to make TSX companies more attractive to the international investor?”

Overall yes since we’re an exporting nation. The weaker CAD makes our exports look more attractive. But it also makes imports more expensive. – Ryan L

#48 Old Boot on 10.22.22 at 5:16 pm

Let’s see if I have understood this correctly:

A man, probably a bearded one, (sorry Garth and fellow fur bearers, but one can’t help but notice an unfortunate correlation between beards and bad feminism takes) thinks I’m doing feminism wrong, and womanning without a license.

I now eagerly await his hot takes on menopause, child-birth, and how I’m not vacuuming my area rugs correctly.

#49 PBrasseur on 10.22.22 at 5:18 pm

Betting on commodities are you?

Are you aware that China, by far the biggest buyer of commodities on the planet, is going bust?

#50 Ryan Lewenza on 10.22.22 at 5:28 pm

LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo “Thanks Ryan! I appreciate your thorough explanation on rotating away from US towards Canada. Do you think that there will be an opportunity around the “peak” of rates to rotate back towards QQQ or would you be more interested in locking in juicy long-term bond yields at that point?”

I think there is going to be a phenomenal buying opportunity in tech stocks and it could coincide with a peak in rates. – Ryan L

#51 Ryan Lewenza on 10.22.22 at 5:30 pm

baloney Sandwitch “Yeah, but — there is a fatal flaw in your analysis — you are comparing TSX in Canadian dollars vs. SPX is US dollars. If you were to convert the TSX to USD any recent outperformance would go away.”

That’s short-term and we live in Canada. – Ryan L

#52 an investor on 10.22.22 at 5:46 pm

“… analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict nearly 26% returns for the S&P 500 benchmark index over the next 12 months.” Garth, Sept. 23/22

” … Over the last 10 years the S&P 500 has returned 11.75% annually versus the TSX at 7.25% annualized, resulting in a 4.5% annual outperformance from the S&P 500. However, over the very long-term (since 1950), the S&P 500 has outperformed by a smaller 2%. So, the TSX is due for better returns and I think that time is now.” Lewenza

I’ll take the S&P-500 26% increase over the TSX …
Thanks anyways Ryan.

#53 DJT on 10.22.22 at 5:51 pm

DELETED

#54 Faron on 10.22.22 at 5:51 pm

#48 Old Boot on 10.22.22 at 5:16 pm

Nope, clean shaven despite what your stalking tells you. And, nope, I’m stating what the data tells us, you are in the minority of women, i.e. far off base.

#55 TurnerNation on 10.22.22 at 6:01 pm

What all seems to be selling in Bunnypatch where Camo wear is acceptable as formal wear, is the stuff under $500k. As it should be! Friggen Bunnypatch.

#56 espressobob on 10.22.22 at 6:03 pm

Global equity markets will perform at some point based on history.

Leaving core weightings alone accordingly should prove quite profitable depending on ones time horizon.

Watching the morning news is stressful and frustrating expecting moves one has no control over.

Patience has its rewards.

#57 the jaguar on 10.22.22 at 6:06 pm

GT… Thanks for roping in that hysterical old woman (post 38).
Re the ‘re-allocation of assets’ issue, wondering why the case wouldn’t be made to invest a bigger slice in ’emerging markets’? I think Jeremy G gave this advice not long ago. Canada’s interests are so tied to the US economy. Doesn”t a bigger slice of emerging markets make sense?

#58 Faron on 10.22.22 at 6:30 pm

DELETED (Abusive)

#59 Quintilian on 10.22.22 at 6:34 pm

#40 Flop.. on 10.22.22 at 4:23 pm
“Please don’t tell on me…”

Flop, are you talking about the ankle bracelet thing or the Granola Bars caper?

You exhibit habitual antisocial behaviour given the frequency of the transgressions.
Both are quite serious delinquencies; however, I think the ankle bracelet removal can be looked through the lens of leniency.

But a word of caution… be careful of your guilt induced confession, there are those among us that take law and order very seriously.*

*note how many times Crowdie posts on the subject.

#60 Faron on 10.22.22 at 6:37 pm

#57 the jaguar on 10.22.22 at 6:06 pm

Yes, heaven forbid some light be cast into the shelter of your narrow, dark cave.

#61 The Righteous on 10.22.22 at 6:48 pm

#38 FARON, of course!

Apparently it takes a man to remind you that the vast majority of women very, very strongly disagree with you. Men should have no legislative say in this issue. If they didn’t, the right would have been enshrined ages ago. You are both incredibly off base here.

^^^^^^^^^^

Faron, what are your your Pronouns??
Please help us understand.

#62 Clown World on 10.22.22 at 7:04 pm

#61 The Righteous on 10.22.22 at 6:48 pm

#38 FARON, of course!

Apparently it takes a man to remind you that the vast majority of women very, very strongly disagree with you. Men should have no legislative say in this issue. If they didn’t, the right would have been enshrined ages ago. You are both incredibly off base here.

^^^^^^^^^^

Faron, what are your your Pronouns??
Please help us understand

————

My guess would be one or more of the following:

Ze/hir
Xe/xem
Hy/hym
Co/cos

#63 Flop… on 10.22.22 at 7:17 pm

#59 Quintilian on 10.22.22 at 6:34 pm
#40 Flop.. on 10.22.22 at 4:23 pm
“Please don’t tell on me…”

Flop, are you talking about the ankle bracelet thing or the Granola Bars caper?

You exhibit habitual antisocial behaviour given the frequency of the transgressions.
Both are quite serious delinquencies; however, I think the ankle bracelet removal can be looked through the lens of leniency.

But a word of caution… be careful of your guilt induced confession, there are those among us that take law and order very seriously.*

*note how many times Crowdie posts on the subject.

////////////////////////////

Um, I was joking, we used to do that back in the 80s and people used to laugh.

You can’t work and live in 5 different countries, like I have, and travel to another 25, or so, if you are constantly in trouble with the law.

I have lived in Vancouver for 20 years, my main public offence has been to get a parking ticket, for parking my vehicle out the front of someone’s house for longer than 3 hours…

M48BC

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 7:33 pm

@#48 Old Boot
“I now eagerly await his hot takes on menopause, child-birth, and how I’m not vacuuming my area rugs correctly.”
+++

Hardwood vs area rugs.
The age old, ongoing, dilemma.

#65 CJohnC on 10.22.22 at 7:38 pm

Re Faron #54,58!,60

Just can’t let anything go can you Faron…

Listen to Garth before you annoy him and everyone else so much that you get yourself banned.

#66 Dogman01 on 10.22.22 at 7:48 pm

Times are changing?

The “Freeland Doctrine”, predicted a few years ago by our bearded oracle:

“When a bat in China ends up sickening your Granma in Kelowna, it’s time to reconsider a few things.” – Garth Turner

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/freeland-trade-column-don-pittis-1.6619222

You have to give it to our Ruling Class, they gave it the college try with China; A) China would be tied by trade to the West and it is difficult to go to war with your trade partners B) They would all get rich by off-shoring all those expensive fellow citizens jobs.

What they did not count on was China’s implacable grievance with the West and a culture where prosperity could actually co-exist with a Totalitarian One Party State.

It look like another Cold-War for several decades and a fundamental change in the World’s economic landscape, De-globalization.

I think we will regret letting China steal all the IP and our “elite” gleefully enabling their Industrial capacity.

https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606

As for Canada, we are likely stuck with a Laurentian power Elite, using the cover of the Green Banner, to continue suppression of non-central Canadian O&G wealth
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/terry-glavin-4

#67 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.22.22 at 7:55 pm

#47 Ryan Lewenza on 10.22.22 at 5:05 pm
crowdedelevatorfartz “Interest summation Ryan.
Does the cheaper Canuck buck also help to make TSX companies more attractive to the international investor?”

Overall yes since we’re an exporting nation. The weaker CAD makes our exports look more attractive. But it also makes imports more expensive. – Ryan L
————–
FURZ
Got it?
Or should Ryan draw a picture.
Slept during that lecture on Macro Economics1.
Oh, did not take the course?
Well, that’s no problem.
This blog is designed to help people like you understand tha basics of finance and economics.
And it’s free.
And the instructors are patient.

oh, you didn’t take

#68 Faron on 10.22.22 at 7:57 pm

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 9:55 am
@#116 Spectacle

Tell that to the US voters in 3 weeks.
:)

Wish I shared your (and Michael Moore’s) optimism. Dems going down in flames.

#69 Old Boot on 10.22.22 at 8:33 pm

Behind a paywall but now two prominent ministers are either saving Trudeau from his own increasingly untenable relationship with China, or they’re cutting Trudeau and Dominic Barton adrift to better their own future political prospects.

Either way, Canadian commodities must benefit from China’s further isolation, right?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-trade-china-authoritarian-countries-champagne/

#70 Barry on 10.22.22 at 9:17 pm

Don’t really care that much if the TSX “underperformed” the Dow. it’s the tax efficient income from dividend growth stocks I’m after – and that has doubled over the same period. This past year has been the best … $6000 more in the kitty while sitting back and enjoying life. BMO was surprising – 31% combined increase in two tranches.

#71 the Jaguar on 10.22.22 at 9:31 pm

One wonders what Freud would make of the ‘narrow dark cave’ reference… (Creepy).

Best to ignore this reference until I am able to contact Buzz Lightyear ( Sailo) on my
Iridium Extreme 9575 for advice on the matter….

#72 the Jaguar on 10.22.22 at 9:37 pm

Ahem….Buzz checked in and advised me to remind all
(discreetly),that this is not a ‘narrow dark cave’ blog. Enough said.

#73 Overheardyou on 10.22.22 at 9:52 pm

Would a weaker CAD increase external investments in to the TSX too?

#74 Don on 10.22.22 at 9:54 pm

“TSX breaks out from a Relative Downtrend vs S&P 500”

This is a DEAD CAT bounce. It will retest lows again .

#75 Ed on 10.22.22 at 10:36 pm

#70 Barry on 10.22.22 at 9:17 pm

Don’t really care that much if the TSX “underperformed” the Dow. it’s the tax efficient income from dividend growth stocks I’m after – and that has doubled over the same period.
///////////////////////////////////

And don’t even get me started with “yield on cost”.

#76 Old Boot on 10.22.22 at 11:29 pm

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 7:33 pm

@#48 Old Boot
“I now eagerly await his hot takes on menopause, child-birth, and how I’m not vacuuming my area rugs correctly.”
+++

Hardwood vs area rugs.
The age old, ongoing, dilemma.

———

Hardwood?

I hope this isn’t more smutty talk of the “narrow dark cave” variety.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 11:39 pm

@#67 Ponzies Predictably pathetic Prussian putdowns

“This blog is designed to help people like you understand tha basics of finance and economics.’

+++
Grumpy ponzie!
I was merely stating the obvious.
But it always helps to have it confirmed by the suspender snapping experts.
You seem a tad snarkier than your usual dour Prussian self….
Did the German Shepard steal your dried biscuit this morning?

P.S.
You misspelled “the” in your posted snark…..

Sad….so sad.

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 11:46 pm

Everyone please watch Ponzies favourite movie……

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwil8fL5t_X6AhUZGDQIHZD7Bm8QwqsBegUIkwEQBQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D6f0T6UV-HiI&usg=AOvVaw3SpAvO7_NAajbupgKF7996

To understand why he’s always so angry….

sad…. so sad…..

#79 Nonplused on 10.23.22 at 12:56 am

DELETED

#80 Cowtown Cowboy on 10.23.22 at 1:54 am

faron..7 posts in the first 75…get a life, or better yet, get lost. and take your lickspittle paunchy pilot with you

#81 jess on 10.23.22 at 8:37 am

Ontario Securities Commission v. Troy Hogg et al: Statement of Allegations (‘US$51M Crypto Fraud’)

Statement of Allegations alleging a US$51 million crypto-based investment fraud in the Ontario Securities Commission v. Troy Richard James Hogg, of Canada; Cryptobontix Inc., of Canada; Arbitrade Exchange Inc., of Canada; Arbitrade Ltd., of Bermuda; T.J.L. Property Management Inc., of Canada, and Gables Holdings Inc., of Canada, before the OSC’s Capital Markets Tribunal. In marketing the crypto product, the defendants falsely claimed they had acquired $10 billion in gold bullion and would back each Dignity crypto coin with $1 of gold, the SEC alleges.The regulator contends that between May 2018 and January 2019, Hogg and the other defendants made “material misrepresentations and omissions to investors” in news releases and at a press conference while selling Dignity coins.

The “false and misleading” news releases increased demand for Dignity coins, causing its price to rise, the SEC alleges. Bitcoin proceeds from the sale of the Dignity crypto assets was converted to cash and distributed, the regulator claims.
“Although this case involves crypto assets, it bears the hallmarks of a classic pump and dump scheme,” the SEC alleges.

•The Securities and Exchange Commission alleges Troy Hogg, the former owner of Gables in Grand Bend, his Canadian company Cryptobontix, a Bermuda-based company Arbitrade and three other men violated federal securities laws by perpetrating an alleged “pump and dump” scheme involving a crypto asset called Dignity.
The Ontario Securities Commission, which froze and sold assets including the Colonial Hotel from Hogg in 2021 as part of its investigation, issued its own statement of allegations against Hogg, Cryptobontix, Arbitrade and two of Hogg’s other companies TJL Property Management Inc. and Gables Holdings.

#82 Ryan Lewenza on 10.23.22 at 8:49 am

Overheardyou “Would a weaker CAD increase external investments in to the TSX too?

Not sure what you mean by ‘external’ but generally a weaker CAD is good since 1) when Canadian companies translate say US dollar revenues then this helps their bottom line and 2) we’re a net exporting country so a weaker dollar would benefit our country and companies. Right now US companies are getting hit by the strong US dollar as they translate their lower foreign income back to US dollars, as an example of how this works. – Ryan L

#83 Dougazz on 10.23.22 at 9:28 am

Hello, sorry for the homework assignment but can we get the performance numbers expressed in USD …most of the he world does not measure returns in pesos or Turkish lira or Canuckistan dollarettes.

#84 millmech on 10.23.22 at 9:31 am

Travis must not have great credit as I got the same letter from TD and my new rate is 9.11%, will have the balance paid off by EOY.
Hopefully I will get the same deal as last year with a special rate of 1.99% for six months and the usury rate for the final six, all tax deductible and will probably use it to buy CWB.TO in the margin account getting another tax deduction as well.

#85 Dharma Bum on 10.23.22 at 9:43 am

Faron off his meds again?

Highly entertaining.

#86 James on 10.23.22 at 10:14 am

#80 Cowtown Cowboy on 10.23.22 at 1:54 am
faron..7 posts in the first 75…get a life, or better yet, get lost. and take your lickspittle paunchy pilot with you
__________________________

And 8 posts by crowdedescalatorfecalmatter!

Is this blog now a narcissist therapy session? CEF should be paying Garth at least $140 per session, standard counselling rates.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.22 at 10:21 am

@#81 jess
Re Canadian Securities Commission case.

Another “pump and dump” scam?
Vancouver’s mining exchange was full of them.

What’s the best description of a mine?
A hole in the ground with a liar standing at the top.

After many exposed scam from the VSE there was a morning News reporter that, during an interview, asked a Barron’s Magazine Editor about the VSE.
“My best financial advice if someone from the VSE calls with a stock play….Hang up.”

#88 Prince Polo on 10.23.22 at 10:38 am

#19 Søren Angst on 10.19.22 at 3:56 pm
Having said that, NXF.B has a higher stock price growth rate so if you are young it will give you a higher end value over time and it is less risky with no covered calls, Beta of 1.2 for NXF.B vs. 1.5 for NXF. NXF is more liquid with a trading volume of about 40K shares per day vs. NXF.B at about 10K – still, low trading volumes vs. my other Cdn ETF at 130K shares per day.
——————–
NXF: I’m a retired Paleo. Spend less $$$ to get the same dividend cash flow. Want a bigger bang for my buck NOW, closer to Death’s Door.
NXF.B: For the young in it for stock price appreciation long run, less risk as no covered calls and the divs beat inflation.

In this case, isn’t the beta purely the result of historical currency movements between USD/CAD? Not sure one can count on continued price appreciation difference unless CAD continues to get h’m’r’d into oblivion (like the shyster cartel deserves to be).

#89 Ryan Lewenza on 10.23.22 at 10:42 am

Dougazz “Hello, sorry for the homework assignment but can we get the performance numbers expressed in USD …most of the he world does not measure returns in pesos or Turkish lira or Canuckistan dollarettes”

We live in Canada, earn Canadian dollars and spend Canadian dollars. Why is it important to review Canadian returns in USD terms? – Ryan L

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.22 at 10:50 am

Gosh golly gee.
Saner heads prevail.

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/10/22/handgun-ban-canada-crime/

But lets face it.
Facts don’t matter to the Liberalistas.
A popular new Law in Quebec to garner votes/seats ?

It will be interesting to see if the gang members with illegal guns pay any attention to Liberal posturing.
Highly doubtful this will stop the illegal importation, sale and use of guns to criminals.
Billions will be spent implementing another ineffective Liberal gun Law to keep firearms from law abiding citizens.
With zero payback.
As is the Liberal way.
Braying donkeys and the sheep that follow them.
Your tax dollars at work.

#91 Yukon Elvis on 10.23.22 at 11:08 am

#76 Old Boot on 10.22.22 at 11:29 pm
#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.22.22 at 7:33 pm

@#48 Old Boot
“I now eagerly await his hot takes on menopause, child-birth, and how I’m not vacuuming my area rugs correctly.”
+++

Hardwood vs area rugs.
The age old, ongoing, dilemma.

———

Hardwood?

I hope this isn’t more smutty talk of the “narrow dark cave” variety.
++++++++++++++
Hehehe. Nicely done.

#92 Kuato Lives on 10.23.22 at 11:30 am

The S&P is wildly overvalued (its Shiller PE ratio well above historical norms), so while a return to a historical relationship is expected, it will likely happen through a deflation of the S&P and not an outperform of the TSX.

#93 The joy of steerage on 10.23.22 at 11:38 am

#89 Ryan Lewenza on 10.23.22 at 10:42 am

Dougazz “Hello, sorry for the homework assignment but can we get the performance numbers expressed in USD …most of the he world does not measure returns in pesos or Turkish lira or Canuckistan dollarettes”

We live in Canada, earn Canadian dollars and spend Canadian dollars. Why is it important to review Canadian returns in USD terms? – Ryan L
….
For the same reason you advocate having at least 20-25% assets is USD

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.22 at 11:40 am

@#86 King James version

Annoying you is my therapy.
:)

#95 Shawn on 10.23.22 at 11:46 am

Shiller P/E ratio?

#92 Kuato Lives on 10.23.22 at 11:30 am
The S&P is wildly overvalued (its Shiller PE ratio well above historical norms), so while a return to a historical relationship is expected, it will likely happen through a deflation of the S&P and not an outperform of the TSX.

**************************************
In 15 years or more of hearing about this Shiller 10 year inflation-adjusted P/E ratio it has basically always shown over-valuation. Even said things were overvalued at the bottom of the pandemic panic. Anyone following this ratio has been out of the market since Shiller invented it in 1988.

See the graph. It did not exist on Black Monday or Black Friday years ago. Apparently it traces its history to a paper in 1988 though maybe not well known.

It would have helped you miss the 2000 bubble but so did Buffett warn on that.

Looks like it did not scream buy even after the financial crisis and it should have in retrospect.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

https://ycharts.com/indicators/cyclically_adjusted_pe_ratio#:~:text=S%26P%20500%20Shiller%20CAPE%20Ratio%20is%20at%20a%20current%20level,24.83%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago.

#96 Upenuff on 10.23.22 at 11:49 am

Crazy times! Needed a head of lettuce for a recipe.

This weekend, Paid $7 for it at the local produce market in Bby, never in a million, would I think one day that it would cost me that price….
Upenuff

#97 Shawn on 10.23.22 at 12:19 pm

This pot needs a stir, so here goes:

“Real men pick and own shares in individual companies and don’t rely on ETFs which are for wusses.” (Quoting for a friend.)

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.23.22 at 12:26 pm

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.23.22 at 10:21 am
@#81 jess
Re Canadian Securities Commission case.

Another “pump and dump” scam?
Vancouver’s mining exchange was full of them.

What’s the best description of a mine?
A hole in the ground with a liar standing at the top.

After many exposed scam from the VSE there was a morning News reporter that, during an interview, asked a Barron’s Magazine Editor about the VSE.
“My best financial advice if someone from the VSE calls with a stock play….Hang up.”
———————
Unless it’s Murray Pezim’s Ghost.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.23.22 at 12:34 pm

#96 Upenuff on 10.23.22 at 11:49 am
Crazy times! Needed a head of lettuce for a recipe.

This weekend, Paid $7 for it at the local produce market in Bby, never in a million, would I think one day that it would cost me that price….
Upenuff
——————
Yep, the Brits drove up the prices.
But, Why did you buy it?
It’s mostly just water.
Lots of more nutritious veggies, at reasonable prices out there.
Don’t feed the beast.

#100 Don Guillermo on 10.23.22 at 12:52 pm

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.23.22 at 12:34 pm
#96 Upenuff on 10.23.22 at 11:49 am
Crazy times! Needed a head of lettuce for a recipe.

This weekend, Paid $7 for it at the local produce market in Bby, never in a million, would I think one day that it would cost me that price….
Upenuff
——————
Yep, the Brits drove up the prices.
But, Why did you buy it?
It’s mostly just water.
Lots of more nutritious veggies, at reasonable prices out there.
Don’t feed the beast.

$$$$$$$

Ordered Bulgogi take out from our favorite Korean restaurant the other day. They warned that they wouldn’t be able to provide the lettuce. I thought it was weird but said no worries. When I got home google confirmed that there’s some big international lettuce shortage, especially romaine it seems. Like you say, it’s mostly water and kind of tasteless anyways.

#101 jess on 10.23.22 at 1:00 pm

elevator : ..’there is the hole in the ground with the liar standing on top and the other kind -data mining revealing the liars

https://www.icij.org/

#102 eesh on 10.23.22 at 1:01 pm

@#71 the Jaguar on 10.22.22 at 9:31 pm
One wonders what Freud would make of the ‘narrow dark cave’ reference… (Creepy).

Best to ignore this reference until I am able to contact Buzz Lightyear ( Sailo) on my
Iridium Extreme 9575 for advice on the matter….

__________________

Would you clowns get your own blog already.
Quit cluttering this one up with your nonsense.

#103 David W2 on 10.23.22 at 1:02 pm

Great post. Love when this type of analysis is shared.

#104 Ryan Lewenza on 10.23.22 at 1:20 pm

The joy of steerage “For the same reason you advocate having at least 20-25% assets is USD”

That’s totally different. We recommended holding some US dollars for a number of reasons but we’re still providing returns in our domestic currency. I don’t say “clients you’re up 10% in US dollar terms” because it’s not really relevant to our Canadian clients who live, earn and spend in Canadian dollars. – Ryan L

#105 kwv on 10.24.22 at 3:12 pm

DELETED