Grouchy times

Remember when the world (as we knew it) was ending?

That bright morning in September of 2001. The tempestuous autumn of 2008. The spring of 2020 when the bug hit. Just three in a long line of global and financial disasters that are well within memory. Nine Eleven. The Credit Crisis. Covid.

We’ve been through a lot of scary stuff. On each occasion everybody said the same thing: ‘It’s different this time.’ And it never was. We survived the first-ever direct attack on the US homeland, leading to war. The collapse of venerable, giant Wall Street banks and automaker bankruptcy. A once-per-century global pandemic that killed millions and shuttered the entire economy. None of those events had occurred in the existence of anyone alive. Yet, here we are.

Moreover, those who saw opportunity in a crisis that paralyzed everyone else, scooped rewards. After all, it’s hard to ague with this…

Well, this week a Bank of America survey of fund managers came back with stunning results: total capitulation. This poll, it said, “screams macro capitulation, investor capitulation, start of policy capitulation.” Investors have more money in cash than at any time since the Twin Towers in NYC were felled by terrorists. Over 80% expect corporate profits to worsen. The odds of recession in the next year are roughly a hundred per cent.

Why? Is the world ending? Again?

Well, the Ukraine war is messing things up, for sure. The UK government is out to lunch. China has a real estate meltdown. Politics everywhere are polarizing left/right. Inflation got out of control after the pandemic. House prices are unsustainable and people are pickled in debt. But mostly, it’s all about central banks. Monetary policy took a sharp turn earlier this year and now we’re in a funk.

Stocks, bonds, trusts, crypto, real estate and commodities are all busted or bruised. But at the same time, corporate profits have been resilient, unemployment rates are the lowest in decades, wages are rising, the malls and airports are full, the prices of lumber and used cars have retreated, oodles of jobs are vacant and Adele isn’t touring.

It’s also worth noting that the last time investors were this stoked on cash (they have an average weighting of 6.2%) was in April of 2020. In other words, scared folks exited equities and hid at the exact time stock markets plumbed their lows. They did the same in December of 2008, at the worst of the credit crisis. Ditto at the end of 2000, when markets came off the rails during the Dot-com crash. In short, people have this uncanny, unfailing, unrepentant knack of capitulating at the moment of maximum opportunity.

Why would that be? Do we learn nothing from the last crisis to apply to the next one?

Of course not. Quaking, we say the same thing: ‘But it’s different this time.’ And, alas, it isn’t.

What should we expect going forward?

Central banks will keep it up for months to come. Rates will increase at least twice more, and maybe four or five times by the middle of 2023. Count on another 1-2% added to everything. The effect on residential real estate will be profound, as it will be on bond prices, but equity markets will be anticipating a pause, then a small pivot well in advance. Current thinking is that stocks will bounce around before careening off the bottom some time in early 2023. If that happens, current valuations may look cheap.

Ditto for bonds. They’ve been beaten relentlessly as rates/yields augment. But rates will stop rising, CBs will flip the switch to ‘growth’ mode when they feel inflation has been pummeled, and this will set the stage for a bond rally.

Ukraine? No idea how that will end. But it will. Like pandemics, all wars finish. Both sides are exhausting each other with staggering costs. When a ceasefire comes, expect markets to jump, in part because hundreds of billions will be spent on rebuilding.

Meanwhile, your life goes on. You still need to finance your family, your home, your kids’ education, your business and your retirement. Being paralyzed by macroeconomic or geopolitical events is just dumb. Letting negative, scary headlines sidetrack your TFSA or push you into a multi-year, low-rate, locked-in, taxable GIC may end up costing you far more than ignoring them. Just remember all the surveys that show those who ignore their portfolios for years do better than others who actively manage them. In fact, dead people do the best. They seldom trade.

Speaking of contrarian indicators, you only need scroll down a tad. The comments section of this blog (like most financial sites) is strewn with emotional baggage and moist with tears. Ironically, by fleeing risk people often land in its very arms. Running out of money is far more dire than losing some.

That’s one thing which is never different.

About the picture: “Hi Garth, I must confess,” writes LJ, “that I snagged this pic from the net.  I don’t own a dog, although I’d love to, but we rent in Van and no pet policy! I always keep my eye out for photos for your blog…”

173 comments ↓

#1 Captain Uppa on 10.18.22 at 3:17 pm

I am hoping that contractor prices drop significantly along with RE. I assume demand will plummet as everyone usually funds renovations with HELOCs.

Right?

#2 Caffeine Monkey on 10.18.22 at 3:20 pm

Ignore the wall streeters. They operate in a different world where buy/sell orders are executed on a time scale of milliseconds. All their agitating isn’t relevant to you or I: Bloomberg and CNBC need to fill airtime with something. Leave your money in your RRSPs and TFSAs, pour yourself a scotch, and relax.

#3 The joy of steerage on 10.18.22 at 3:23 pm

Long live the dead investor.. that’s the way to do it.

#4 Sail Away on 10.18.22 at 3:31 pm

Yes, things are a bit unsettled these days. Best to stay close to the respectful centrists and eschew radicals. Buy some guns (for hunting! geez), bone up on self-sufficiency, reduce dependencies. Become invulnerable.

Now look at your assets. Suitable for the future? Good. This is the new baseline. Keep buying.

#5 Dr V on 10.18.22 at 3:32 pm

OMG it’s a baby Chewbacca.

#6 Dogman01 on 10.18.22 at 3:34 pm

I get Grouchy when I am being manipulated, however when that effort becomes so obvious it is a window into the workings of our system.

Never forget the establishments lies of “Weapons of Mass Destruction” to manipulate their own democratic citizens to accept the war they always wanted.

US Media’s Intellectual No-Fly-Zone
https://fair.org/home/us-medias-intellectual-no-fly-zone-on-us-culpability-in-nord-stream-attack/

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie,”- Jean-Claude Juncker

The lock step of an corporate government “establishment” manipulating you.

#7 @J on 10.18.22 at 3:41 pm

“Current thinking is that stocks will bounce around before careening off the bottom some time in early 2023.”
———————————-

This analyst (who wrote an interesting book on options trading) thinks the S&P500 bottom may have just occurred.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kibZbwnj9rY&ab_channel=LeeLowell

#8 Ballingsford on 10.18.22 at 3:44 pm

Great post Garth! I try to tell my spouse ‘not to worry, it’ll come back up’. And I’m not referring to my age issue.
She sees the RESP taking a beating and panics that we should sell and convert to cash.

#9 ogdoad on 10.18.22 at 3:44 pm

LOTS of emotional baggage. I hug it out, tho. Then I feel better. Most of it comes from the fact that I had to work for many different firms, all of which had middle managers. Each with a minion, and discolored nose, oddly enough.

I still shudder to think that this dimension of life still exists among us today.

I will donate today’s hugs to Ogdoad’s Middle Manager Relief Fund.

Og

#10 KT on 10.18.22 at 3:45 pm

So if you have maxed TFSA invested in ETFs but are sitting on a bunch of excess cash that needs to go into a non-reg account, What do you put it on?

#11 Søren Angst on 10.18.22 at 3:53 pm

Bought more of my non-oil Cdn etf today with divs.

Big 5 Cdn banks on the mend today … 4th or so attempt since May.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=YTD

If nothing else, they’re PLUCKY.

Like you Garth today.

I liked your big picture. It’s the day-to-day grind in between that’s a female dog.

And NO. When “it” happens I want to enjoy every second of it as opposed to bury head in sand or morgue.

“It” apparently is now 2023 and not Christmas. Thanks for that Garth.

Just because I gave up on a Halloween turnaround DOES NOT MEAN you have to give up on a Christmas turnaround. Not quid pro quo.

I mean, where’s that Garth walking on water spirit? Where did it go?

#12 Is this time different ? on 10.18.22 at 3:56 pm

Thanks for the blog Garth
And as always, great words of wisdom.

I am slowly adding to my portfolio every Might as well average down with a long term horizon.

I read three other newsletters including your friend Pennock, all say the same thing we are near the bottom and expect choppy returns and things will eventually go up. Maybe first quarter maybe last quarter of 2023.

Interestingly after months of advising ‘take the money”. I notice now Pennock is saying “invest the money”

Here’s an excellent article by Russell Napier for long term
Investors, very interesting Enjoy!

First paragraph….

According to Napier, financial repression will be the leitmotif for the next 15 to 20 years. But this environment will also bring opportunities for investors. «We will see a boom in capital investment and a reindustrialisation of Western economies,

https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606

Have a great day and thanks for reading !

#13 Søren Angst on 10.18.22 at 4:07 pm

#6 Dogman01

Hard to tell from the images but it but Nord Stream blowed up real good.

Underwater images

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/forsta-bilderna-fran-sprangda-gasroret-pa-ostersjons-botten/

Drone underwater video

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1582302162012753921

Guy speaks in Nordic Klingon during vid.

#14 Jen M on 10.18.22 at 4:08 pm

“Running out of money is far more dire than losing some.”

I love this so much! Will put this on a sticky note on my fridge.

#15 Doug t on 10.18.22 at 4:10 pm

‘ I don’t have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It’s a depression. Everybody’s out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel’s worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street and there’s nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there’s no end to it. We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat, and we sit watching our TV’s while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that’s the way it’s supposed to be. We know things are bad – worse than bad. They’re crazy. It’s like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don’t go out anymore. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we are living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, ‘Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials and I won’t say anything. Just leave us alone.’ Well, I’m not gonna leave you alone. I want you to get mad! I don’t want you to protest. I don’t want you to riot – I don’t want you to write to your congressman because I wouldn’t know what to tell you to write. I don’t know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street. All I know is that first you’ve got to get mad. You’ve got to say, ‘I’m a HUMAN BEING, God damn it! My life has VALUE!’ So I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window. Open it, and stick your head out, and yell, ‘I’M AS MAD AS HELL, AND I’M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!’

#16 Matt on 10.18.22 at 4:13 pm

But the guys over at r/PersonalFinanceCanada said that I should put my money into HISAs and GICs!

#17 Pat on 10.18.22 at 4:13 pm

I would like to thank you for keeping me grounded and invested in these turbulent times. Everywhere you look, you see people fearing the worst; moaning, that the end is nigh. ignore the rabble!

#18 IHCTD9 on 10.18.22 at 4:17 pm

#164 Sail Away on 10.18.22 at 3:57 pm
#157 IHCTD9 on 10.18.22 at 2:48 pm

Re: hunting

No ATV’s? They haul just about all the big stuff out of the bush here with those. They come in Tactical Black, Olive Drab, Desert Sand, and Real Tree Camo, you know :)

——–

Almost all the big game hunting we do is either totally inaccessible to vehicles or in designated ‘no motorized vehicle’ protected areas. Hiking in 7-8km to set up camp almost completely eliminates other hunters.

________

Yeah, I think the hunters out here have it pretty easy. They ride right to the stand, then ride back out with deer in tow. Do all the cleaning and hang the meat right in their garage. The leftovers get hauled out into the back 40 for the coyotes.

“Luxury” hunting.

#19 Søren Angst on 10.18.22 at 4:24 pm

Trudeau Liberal Party Tweeting last few days on how they have put money in the pockets of Cdns and mention numbers, none of which they provide.

Per StatCan, what the Liberal Party says is a fib to kind.

I responded to them with this Tweet but it GAVE ME PAUSE.

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1582084040295067648

Ya, “YOU’RE POORER THAN YOU THINK CANADA” in terms of Wealth but on paper, so far.

What got me was the Average Household Net Saving by Income Quintile – that’s COLD HARD CASH.

Blood on the ground.

What on God’s Green Earth is the 2nd Qtr or the 3rd Qtr going to look like for the Lowest and Second Lowest Quintiles ???

They’ve been bleeding for 2 years straight.

————————

2023 for 40% of Cdns is going be ugly, very, very ugly if rates keep going up or even stay the same.

Expect civil unrest.

#20 OK, Doomer on 10.18.22 at 4:27 pm

“Investors have more money in cash than at any time since the Twin Towers in NYC were felled by terrorists. Over 80% expect corporate profits to worsen. The odds of recession in the next year are roughly a hundred per cent.”

_______

Looks like strong buy signal to me. The crowd is usually wrong. When people are moaning that things can’t get any worse, they’re usually right. They can only get better.

Except if you’re leveraged to the max in RE. Sorry. The beatings will continue until…. well… for quite awhile so get used to them.

#21 I have 3 kids on 10.18.22 at 4:31 pm

#108 TurnerNation on 10.16.22 at 7:35 pm
Nonna Nicola check your DMs.
What’s the call?
Cappa rates are going uppa on rental units. For the cash buyers only. Else buy REITs/XRE.TO.

——-
Second, This country could never go to war. Think of the time and expense to add the Ukraine and Rainbow flags to all equipment, documents, and uniforms.
I’m not kidding. Even local schools are flying these two flags.
The kids would expect it.
And, the catering unit, never would keep up with demand for lacto-ovo, locavore, vegan, vegetarian, soy and nut and lactose free meals. Battle would be delayed.
And what if a soldier fell behind on their booster schedule while deployed? These people not up-to-date would have to be airlifted out. Unfit for battle.
In summary if push comes to shove we’d better learn to speak Russian or Chinese.
If only I were joking….

—————————————————————

How would they fuel the planes and takes to get our troops there?
The carbon tax alone would bankrupt our military.

https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/G-11.55/page-26.html#h-247111

Watch it go up every year for all cdofferent types of fossil fuels.
That won’t goose inflation at all….

#22 Nonplused on 10.18.22 at 4:35 pm

The Russia-Ukraine war is over, so thankfully we don’t have to worry about that anymore. Actually there never was a Russia-Ukraine war; the war was between the breakaway provinces referred to a “the Donbas” and western Ukraine. Russia came in on the side of the Donbas with their “special military operation”. But even if Russia were to withdraw now, the Donbas will remain hostile territory that Kiev cannot control. Same as it was since 2014, when democracy in Ukraine failed.

Ukraine was never going to be able to exercise any control over the Donbas or Crimea either way. These areas are populated by ethnic Russians and have been since forever. It was only a drunk Stalin drawing lines on a map that put them under Ukrainian administration during the terror of the USSR. This doesn’t have a long history. That regime is gone now. And with it, finally, its maps.

—————————————–

So now that we know the outcome of the war, let’s look at what it means going forward. We have some obvious realities we can talk about. Germany and Europe lost. Bigtime. This is WWII type destruction, to be delivered by General Winter in the coming months. Europe will be largely deindustrialized by spring. These are just high probabilities, but high enough to be facts for our purposes, I don’t like them anymore than you do. But a country without energy cannot manufacture or even grow food. Europe is doomed.

So what does this mean for investing? Hard to say. Sell everything Europe, there is no coming back for them, that much is clear. With Germany unable to produce manufactured goods probably for the foreseeable future, the US, Japan, and China should do well. Somebody is going to pick up the slack. Tesla, unfortunately, should do well with BMW out of the way in the electric car field. Ford looks like they will own the electric small truck market, but they already did. For reasons that have nothing to do with physics I expect the electric car market to do well. People are going to be afraid of gasoline prices soon.

Energy is a good buy because Russian production will not return to full capacity for many years, so the world is now officially in a long term energy crisis. The only thing mitigating it for the rest of us is that Europe is offline; they can’t get all the energy they need even if they could pay for it. However it looks like OPEC isn’t going to play ball and increase production to offset Russian losses. Probably out of solidarity, lest the west comes to figure that taking out producing countries is possible because other OPEC countries will just step in to make up for the lost production. But it could also be that OPEC doesn’t have that much oil to spare. Their production declines too, and investment dollars for O&G are hard to come by right now without uneducated teenagers yelling at you.

However, don’t bet big on solar and wind. Making that stuff is very energy intensive so the cost of panels is going to go back up. Given the high cost, intermittency, lack of storage, and low EROEI (energy return on energy invested) we simple aren’t going to be able to afford to mess around with this boondoggle any longer.

Food in the modern world is basically an energy derivative, so expect costs there to stay high. But that doesn’t mean farmers have the upper hand; they are at the mercy of energy and fertilizer costs.

Inflation, bad as it was just due to reckless government spending, now has an energy driver, and this time it won’t go away. So I think we can count on a sort of a repeat of the 70’s oil embargo, only this time when the tap finally does come on all the Russian oil & gas will be going to China and India. It will never go to Europe again. So, not to go through all the steps, but interest rates are never going back down to 2%. Never. That was an abomination, and it won’t happen again. However even with higher rates inflation is going to be stubbornly high. This winter could be a shocker. People will look at their heating bills and wonder how it is even possible, the numbers they are seeing. Especially in Europe.

Oh ya, good time to insulate the attic.

Politically, Trudeau is done. Once people see their heating bills this winter, they are going to need somebody to blame. He won’t be able to get an “energy rebate” program in place like Alberta has in time to save his bacon. Ya, I know it won’t be his fault, it’ll be Europe bidding up the price of LNG, but the price of natural gas in Texas very much sets the price of natural gas in Alberta and thus Canada. And we have a weak dollar to boot! But he’s everyone’s favorite scapegoat now, and by March people are going to be truly angry. Perhaps in a way we have never seen before. It could make the trucker protests pail in comparison, only no trucks because diesel will be too expensive.

So buy energy, agriculture, and technology with a focus on North America and Asia. Sell Europe, real estate, long dated bonds, and discretionary spending. And buy all the things. Except European cars. European cars are worthless now. You won’t be able to get parts.

#23 Old Boot on 10.18.22 at 4:36 pm

Cute gremlin, but don’t feed those little imps after midnight.

‐——————–

10% in cash currently, but still 64% in equities. The clever folks who handle my portfolio seem unconcerned.

Being relatively new to big girl investing, I look forward to these market gyrations as a learning opportunity; I get an education in market mechanics during a relatively infrequent confluence of events, and get to discover just how much intestinal fortitude I possess.

I admit to a giddy flutter or two back in March 2020, but now I just wish I’d had more cash to deploy.

By the time the next sphincter clenching event heaves into view, I expect I’ll be able to respond with Sail Away-levels of demonic glee and calculated aggression, albeit tempered by my naturally demure nature /s.

————–

Question:

What do you call someone who simultaneously expresses open contempt for, yet constantly seeks the approval of, complete strangers on an internet blog?

#24 espressobob on 10.18.22 at 4:37 pm

Mr market is a tough contender. Knows all the moves and pushes emotional buttons with ease. Question is whether your willing to play or instead, be played?

Upside is a real bitch for those who dumped their positions.

Hindsight can be hell…

#25 Søren Angst on 10.18.22 at 4:43 pm

#18 IHCTD9

“Luxury” hunting.

—————

THAT was good.

Don’t forget that SA also hunts farm raised pheasants in Red Deer.

Pheasant Release Sites (new potential hunting spots for SA)
https://www.ab-conservation.com/programs/wildlife/provincial-pheasant-release-program/search-release-sites/

They come up to your car (probably on a highway shoulder or rest stop) looking for some grain, fruit handouts and some serious head petting BUT are rewarded with:

a 7-1/2 shell shot to the head.

Great Bill C-16 et. al. Hunters.

Next time, go the Indigenous* and you can buy them plucked, cleaned, packaged … Prêt-à-Porter.

* Used to hunt and fish on their lands (AB). Knew one of their Game Wardens. Saved on shotgun shells.

#26 Observer on 10.18.22 at 4:44 pm

#23 Old Boot on 10.18.22 at 4:36 pm

Question:

What do you call someone who simultaneously expresses open contempt for, yet constantly seeks the approval of, complete strangers on an internet blog?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Sail Away!

#27 TurnerNation on 10.18.22 at 4:46 pm

Now a software king is spouting election Conspiracies.
He does helpfully remind us that this war, global WW3 in my opinion is for our MINDS.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-polarization-bring-it-end-2022-9
“I admit that political polarization may bring it all to an end, we’re going to have a hung election and a civil war,” he recently said in the keynote conversation at this year’s Forbes 400 Summit on Philanthropy. ”
“Political polarization, he says, goes hand-in-hand with another issue: the spread of misinformation.”

—- ——-
Let’s say…ole Billy was giving a hint. What else could kick this off? I suspect this is how the USA will be made to fall as people protest this, parallel societies created and such.

From a US Member of Congress

https://twitter.com/RepThomasMassie/status/1582346971553370113
Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie
According to an outside lawyer I trust, CDC meeting to add COVID shots to childhood vaccine list will trigger some state requirements to attend schools and play sports. Will also give liability protection to manufacturers. Public can comment at this link:
https://regulations.gov/document/CDC-2022-0111-0001?fbclid=IwAR3THQ_o7qOeQUwN_tlo8KxxJtdcBp7eHcTHv6GPk8D3XlR4vzCPWl0MDF

#28 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.18.22 at 4:46 pm

@#23 Old Boot
“Cute gremlin, but don’t feed those little imps after midnight.”

+++
Good one.

#29 jess on 10.18.22 at 4:47 pm

merger blindness?

..”Between August 2013 and October 2014, Lafarge capitalized on the Islamic State’s iron grip and violent control of Syria to stifle its competition and increase its market share.
…in one email, Lafarge executives discussed how the company could “share the cake” with ISIS — with the “cake” a callous reference to the profits that Lafarge planned to reap from the illicit partnership. Lafarge paid millions of dollars to both terrorist groups and benefited from their brutality to the tune of $70 million in revenue.Lafarge also hid its partnership with these terrorists through a web of fake contracts, falsified invoices, corrupt intermediaries, and off-system email accounts.

…We also emphasize that companies should have policies to enable retention and production of communications over third-party messaging systems. Lafarge did not. Nonetheless, thanks to the efforts and ingenuity of our agents and prosecutors, we were able to locate the inculpatory emails that Lafarge executives tried to hide off-system.
And we have also emphasized that companies engaged in mergers or acquisitions should promptly and properly address compliance issues.

Here, the company that acquired Lafarge did not perform due diligence of Lafarge’s operations in Syria, despite the clear compliance risks posed by operations in the region. And it did nothing to investigate or address Lafarge’s illegal activities until they were publicly exposed….
French authorities have arrested many of the senior executives implicated in the scheme detailed today. This case is, thus, a good example of international law enforcement cooperation, with partners working independently, but in parallel, to bring about accountability and justice.”
https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/deputy-attorney-general-lisa-o-monaco-delivers-remarks-announcing-guilty-plea-lafarge

The company, Lafarge SA, is paying a financial penalty of nearly $778 million and pleaded guilty to a US federal count of conspiring to provide material support to ISIS and another terrorist organization as part of a deal with the US Justice Department. Today’s announcement should serve as yet another reminder that the Department’s reach is far, and our memory is long. Let me take this opportunity to emphasize three points with broader significance for our work.First, U.S. terrorism statutes—and our sanctions and export control laws—extend to multi-national companies anywhere that come within the jurisdiction of our laws. And we are committed to ensuring that companies that seek to access U.S. markets and the U.S. financial system uphold their basic obligations under U.S. law.

Second, this case relates to corporate defendants acquired by a competitor well after the criminal conduct at issue. This should serve as a cautionary tale. There are risks that come with transactions involving companies that operate in high-risk environments on account of U.S. terrorism designations and sanctions and export-control laws. Companies should not expect a free pass from the Justice Department simply because they are under new management.

Finally, I want to make clear that the Department cannot and will not accept the notion that this kind of conduct is excused where corporations try to maintain business operations in places like Syria but do not share the ideology of terrorist groups.

Here, former executives made what they viewed was a business choice to pay designated terrorist groups as a cost of doing business and as a way to gain ground on competitors. U.S. law is clear that this was not their choice to make. And the defendants are now facing the consequences.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/assistant-attorney-general-national-security-matthew-g-olsen-delivers-remarks-lafarge

#30 Stephen Fowler on 10.18.22 at 4:54 pm

I never read the comments, and am loathe to call Garth out for errors, but….

9/11 was not the first attack on the US homeland, we burnt the White House down during the war of 1812. They even wrote a song about it and play it over and over.

Fortunately, relations have improved a bit since then.

#31 NOSTRADAMUS on 10.18.22 at 4:57 pm

CONTINUATION- EPIDEMIC MORTGAGE FRAUD.
Yesterday, I touch on how prevalent mortgage fraud actually is within the real estate industry and the total lack of accountability for the agents involved.
Bringing you up to speed, within the real estate industry we have RECO, the Real Estate Council Of Ontario, a body dedicated to policing the activities of all 82,000 licensed real estate agents within the province. A recent undercover investigation regarding mortgage brokers and real estate agents perpetrating mortgage fraud for a fee, securing commissions by submitting fake documents for approval, drum roll, “RESULTED IN” 7 convictions within the past 5 years. This would strongly suggest that RECO is the watch dog that would not bite. Lack of evidence is the go to excuse for the low conviction rate. I think it is about time that RECO, the toothless watch dog be put down.
In my opinion there is a” compelling” case” for creating dedicated economic crime courts to ensure there are judges with the right skills to tackle mortgage fraud. I would also propose longer sentences for convicted fraudsters based on the psychological and emotional stress that their crimes caused rather than simply monetary value .Repeating yesterdays warning,
In the final analysis, when we ask what was one of the leading contributors to the 2022 real estate crash, and subsequent financial crisis all roads will be found to lead back to an “epidemic” in mortgage fraud. I am starting to think that maybe, just maybe the real estate cartel is really not that committed to looking out for the best interest of the little people. Devil’s Advocate.

#32 Meh on 10.18.22 at 4:57 pm

Why do stocks require a “pivot”? I thought they did well on a rising rate environment.

#33 Ustabe on 10.18.22 at 5:00 pm

Question:

What do you call someone who simultaneously expresses open contempt for, yet constantly seeks the approval of, complete strangers on an internet blog?

I do not know but I do know that those who would summon him even when he isn’t here seem pretty needy for the interaction.

Ever hear the term “let sleeping dogs lay?”

#34 TurnerNation on 10.18.22 at 5:02 pm

It’s another day here on this gender-affirming weblobg.

— Another Internet Consp. Theory comes true.
First an airshow next up will be the Commercial Aviation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-63292905
Sunderland Airshow axed over climate change

——– Meanwhile in Kanada. We too will be so healthy.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-services-procurement/services/procuring-vaccines-covid19.html#agreements
Agreement amendment with Moderna: Up to 35 million for 2022 table note2, up to 35 million in 2023, and up to 35 million in 2024
Pfizer 51 million Agreement amendment with Pfizer: Up to 65 million for 2022, up to 60 million in 2023 and up to 60 million in 2024

—-
—-
I called it 290 days ago:::

#8 TurnerNation on 01.01.22 at 11:17 am
2022 schedule (Thanks to our sponsor, Fizer):
January: TFSA contribution; 3rd booster
March: RRSP contribution; 4th booster
June: 5th booster
September: 6th booster
December: 7th booster. Annual winter lockdown

#35 The General on 10.18.22 at 5:02 pm

#22- Nonplused: I agree with your assessment on current world events. Who will end up taking the blame, when the musical chair game stops? Here’s a hint: It won’t be the oh so virtuous west. We are the good guys, because cnnbcbctv etc told me so. The E.U. has made its bed, and it’s soon suffering populace are preparing the torches and pitchforks as we speak.

#36 jess on 10.18.22 at 5:08 pm

Russians everywhere will be fed up with Russia as defined by Putin
Donbas is gangster opportunism,
In the past eight years, local criminals have shifted from gangsters to warlords. For example one underworld figure in Donetsk, a counterfeit vodka baron, known as the Chort (devil) is believed to be the main funder of a military unit known as the Russian Orthodox Army, which was sent by Russia to fight in Mariupol over the last few months.

Another kingpin, a tobacco smuggler known as Prokop, handpicked his associates to sit on the DNR’s parliament, and filled out its military units with his loyal gunmen.

“As the DNR and LNR began to be institutionalized, figures with criminal backgrounds or networks became part of the self-proclaimed new regimes. Their criminal networks also allowed them to recruit representatives in neighboring regions in opportunistic and usually fruitless attempts to spread the insurrection,” GI-TOC said.

It’s no surprise, cut off from the rest of Ukraine and sanctioned by the West, criminality has been key in keeping economies afloat in the Donbas and occupied region as well, making local crime bosses important figures for local politicians to keep happy.

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/16570-report-in-crimea-and-the-donbas-organized-crime-reigns-supreme
=====

Credit Suisse has agreed to pay US$495 million to settle a case related to the sale of mortgage-backed securities in the U.S., which contributed to the 2008 financial crisis.

Credit Suisse ZurichThe half-a-billion settlement comes as the latest blow to the secretive bank’s reputation after a turbulent summer. (Photo: Suw Charman-Anderson, Flickr, License)New Jersey Attorney General, which announced the settlement on Monday, said the lender made fraudulent and deceitful representations of the risks of the mortgage backed securities from 2006 to 2007 in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis.

In a 2013 filed lawsuit, the attorney general’s office alleged over $3 billion in damages from the Swiss bank’s involvement.

“This agreement in principle holds Credit Suisse accountable for the loss of billions of dollars that helped put the nation in financial crisis,” said First Assistant Attorney General Lyndsay Ruotolo.

https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/16907-credit-suisse-to-pay-495m-in-u-s-to-settle-deceitful-securities

#37 Jenn on 10.18.22 at 5:08 pm

How do you feel about using a GIC for 13k that I am going to put on my mortgage in 1 year?
Don’t want to invest due to the short time horizon, higher interst rate than my savings account.

#38 jess on 10.18.22 at 5:11 pm

An investigation by Iraq’s finance ministry discovered Sunday that US$2.5 billion dollars were stolen from a government tax commission account by five companies, in what amounts to one of the largest corruption scandals in the country’s history.

All together, taxpayer revenue totaling 3.7 trillion Iraqi dinars was embezzled from a government account at Baghdad’s Rafidain Bank—a state-owned bank and the largest in Iraq—between September 2021 and August 2022.

During this time, 247 cheques were cashed by five companies, three of which were formed just over a month before the scheme began, reported Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst.

The account’s intended purpose was to hold funds for “companies who held contracts with the public sector, to be repaid once projects are completed,” Jiyad explained.

“These amounts have been stolen by the companies through the cheques issued by the General Commission of Taxes instead of going to the real beneficiaries,” the internal probe concluded.

“Who are the real owners of these companies, who authorised these cheques to be given to the companies, how did it go undetected for a year?” Jiyad asked in a tweet, while also calling for an immediate investigation into identifying the politicians “complicit in this massive corruption/theft.”

#39 Søren Angst on 10.18.22 at 5:12 pm

#22 Nonplused

Much of what you wrote I agree with except for Europa.

You are writing from the perspective of a Cdn. which at present are not doing so well in terms of Wealth and Income Savings – both being eroded.

Here is a sobering reminder of Net Income After tax by Country:

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_price_rankings?itemId=105

True, Mercedes and BMW pretty problematic to start with mechanically. So you get what you buy. Just stay tuned to Scotty on YouTube and he will tell you that – junk to repair except for the odd model.

https://www.youtube.com/c/ScottyKilmermechanic

NB, saw the writing on the wall 7 years ago where Canada headed and moved to Italia where costs in line with income. #11 Income in a #31 Cost country that is 1st World.

There’s a lot of cash in Europa and industry, I would not bet against Europa like I would not bet against the US Fed. 4 of the G7 are in Europa.

——————

If any of the NIMBY pipeline BC or Quebec people have the nerve to WHINE about energy costs this Winter

YOU DID IT TO YOURSELVES. TIME TO PAY THE PIPER.

Fed Export royalties could have been used to offset energy cost increases. Italia by selling Russian gas to Germany etc. is doing just that – backdoor to Russian gas and helping her EU brethren (and of course, making a profit while at it).

https://www.statista.com/statistics/481672/canadian-government-revenue-from-oil-and-gas-royalties/

Now Canada you get to pay, besides the Carbon Tax, in real $ this Winter for believing Trudeau and the Green Squad.

One reason why I left Canada. How Gov Canada can mismanage the most educated country on Planet Earth into a morass is beyond me.

But they did and Cdns voted for that, a few … enjoy.

#40 Tony on 10.18.22 at 5:13 pm

The chart looks great but what’s the average annualized return for S&P historically? The furthest back I can find is since 2000 which is 6.5%. But need to factor in fees and reinvest dividends. It’s ok. But nothing to write home about. Especially since GICs have been as high as 6% and now back to 5%.

#41 Richard L on 10.18.22 at 5:18 pm

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

#42 Bill zufelt on 10.18.22 at 5:40 pm

All the events since 911 have a cumulative effect though. It is doubtful we’ll avoid a severe financial crisis in Canada. Too many playing on their phones,pretending, building nothing but endless debt. We’ll turn it around only when we get back in the business of producing again.

#43 the Jaguar on 10.18.22 at 5:49 pm

@#5 Dr V on 10.18.22 at 3:32 pm — OMG it’s a baby Chewbacca. —–
Are you sure? I think it’s a werewolf or maybe Eddie Munster. +++

@#22 Nonplused on 10.18.22 at 4:35 pm…”Germany and Europe lost.” —
Not lost, but maybe on the brink of Revolution. Protests in Czech Republic, France, Italy, Moldova, UK, etc., over ‘NATO and the Sanctions’ growing every day, and the temperatures haven’t even dropped yet. People in France unable to gas up their vehicles. The natives are getting very, very restless. Opinions differ on who’s responsible for the tragic war in Ukraine and it ain’t over yet, but my guess is that it soon will be. Mama Mia, those Iranian drones!
And then what? The clean up and reorganization. Zelensky says 17 billion will be needed to restore things, but seems to me that maybe Poland will be the one who will need the funds given what is ahead for them. I’ll say no more given the Polish connections on this Blog, but restoring cordial relations and business connections on the planet will be interesting indeed. ‘When Hell freezes over’ keeps rolling around ‘en mi cabeza’. +++

“Just remember all the surveys that show those who ignore their portfolios for years do better than others who actively manage them. In fact, dead people do the best.”……..

I’m not dead yet, but I try to focus on things that are within my control and markets just aren’t one of those. I see no need to panic. So many more interesting things happening. It’s just a great time to be alive.

#44 ogdoad on 10.18.22 at 5:50 pm

#8 Ballingsford on 10.18.22 at 3:44 pm

Great post Garth! I try to tell my spouse ‘not to worry, it’ll come back up’. And I’m not referring to my age issue.

:):):):)

Ummm, Bro…I can help. And let me start by saying, you WON’T regret it for the rest of your life! Either will the sig :)

Og

#45 MicroGX on 10.18.22 at 5:50 pm

Good post, Thanks…appreciate you.
Funny thing being positive about the future, earning average/slightly above average income, spend less than earn, BnD Portfolio, stay the course rule of 90 etc etc after 20-30 years puts your household in the top 10-15 percentile of Household Net Worth….yeah its different.
if my friends knew they’d hate me.

#46 Yorkville Renter on 10.18.22 at 5:56 pm

Worry about the things you can control.
Everything else is just noise.

#47 Steven Rowlandson on 10.18.22 at 6:02 pm

RE#21 I seriously doubt the Russians, or the Chinese would put up with your list of priorities. They might even be dangerously hostile to them and you. Not everyone is a fan of western decadence.

#48 Old Boot on 10.18.22 at 6:17 pm

Unforgivable that the entirely predictable violence in homeless camps has resulted in the death of an RCMP officer.

https://globalnews.ca/news/9207858/burnaby-rcmp-officer-killed-stabbing-homeless-camp/

If the metaphorical horses and water cannons aren’t deployed by authorities soon, I fear baseball bats, machetes, and socks full of rocks (wielded by those with with penchant for extra-judicial violence) will be.

#49 Søren Angst on 10.18.22 at 6:17 pm

#40 Tony

Depends what your start year is for the S&P 500. Use the Time Value of Money equation for annual compounding.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/timevalueofmoney.asp

S&P 500 Index today is 3720.

5 yrs ago, 2017 = 2674 (end of year)
10 yrs ago, 2012 = 1426
20 yrs ago, 2002 = 880
30 yrs ago, 1992 = 436
40 yrs ago, 1982 = 141

For the 5 yrs ago calc, set FV = 3720, PV = 2674, n = 1 compounding period per year and t = 5 years.

Solve for i, Interest rate, using Goal Seek in a spreadsheet like so (i of 5% was a starter value:

https://twitter.com/bsant54/status/1582489364646371329

Click Solve and the Annual Compound Interest Rate is

6.8%

10 yrs ago = 10.1%
20 yrs ago = 7.5%
30 yrs ago = 7.4%
40 yrs ago = 8.5%

Say you receive an average dividend yield of 2%. Set i = 12.1% per the above calc and you end up with today with a FV of

4469

vs. 3720 w/o compounding the dividends received. Latter a Rough Order Magnitude calc but you get the gist of it, 20% higher. DRIP is powerful.

#50 chalkie on 10.18.22 at 6:21 pm

Realtors will never learn how to best attract clients; they bring you to their site and then show you no information unless you sign in to their site.
Realtors need to understand and accept, who would be dumb enough to sign into all of their private sites and be bombarded with emails of harassment and desperation, to attract a client, the majority of people shopping for a home, has already picked a realtor if they need one.
Realtors: If you are on the information highway, then open the site for full viewing, or go back to pen and paper and advertise only in newspapers where 3 or 4% of people now shop for information, leave the other 96% to open users.

We know the real estate market is now bottom up and leaking like a sieve, but if realtors want to seriously attract potential clients, they need to get to the future and not rely on old tricks of trying to trap clients into their exclusive world, it’s old fashion and it does not work.

Who would you rely on for your most accurate information, if you were in the market to purchase a home, Banks or realtors? See TD, RBC vs REMAX and Royal Lepage predictions. Keep in mind, they are all guessing, just like you and I would do.

TD: A report by TD Bank suggests the average price of a home in Canada could fall 20 to 25 per cent from its peak seen earlier this year to the first quarter of 2023. Anotheer report also estimates the number of home sales will fall 35 per cent over the same time period.
https://www.google.com/search?q=td+bank+canadian+home+prices+to+drop+19%25&rlz=1C1ONGR_enCA967CA967&oq=td+bank+canadian+home+prices+to+drop+19%25&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i160l3.16165j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

RBC: We project home resales to fall 23 per cent in Canada this year and a further 15 per cent next year.” Overall, Hogue said he thinks prices will bottom out by early next year, though the pain will be deeper in Ontario and British Columbia, where prices surged during the pandemic. Sept 16, 2022
https://globalnews.ca/news/9134253/canada-housing-market-prices-rbc-spring-forecast/

REMAX: Confidence continues in the Canadian real estate market, with the inter-provincial relocation trend likely to remain strong in 2022.
https://blog.remax.ca/re-max-expects-canadian-real-estate-prices-to-rise-9-2-in-2022/

Royal Lepage: After two years of strong price appreciation, Canadian home prices are poised to increase significantly in 2022, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. According to the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast.
https://www.royallepagebinder.com/article-news-230/royal-lepages-2022-forecast

I thought that would be your pick of choice between the bank information and real estate, just imagine, they all get paid big, big bucks to write their opinion.
Its funny how our opinion was more right then theirs, but its not worth 10 cents.

The day of the expensive realtor, soon going by the wayside.
Realtors having no investment or next to a small investment on a single listing or next to almost nothing on a ratio scale.
It’s the seller who carries the blunt of expenses and all the risk. The internet will replace the real estate market, just like the newspaper going by the wayside, it may be slow, but it’s for sure and overdue in coming.

Higher interest rates have now disqualified many buyers from obtaining a mortgage and shrunk the size of a mortgage others can now qualify for, it will be much harder in just another week or so. The higher that the interest rate rises, the less people will be able to borrow, and mom and dad are not so excited anymore to hand it over their retirement to the kids. Home depreciation, family discussion, I know of one fellow who has just told his mom, then you should have not given the money to me, go figure the psychology on that answer.

2021 Real Estate Sales coming out of every crack and corner, down to plenty of sales, to not so many sales, to very few sales and now no sales, is the direction for many realtors right now that has recently picked this industry for a career. There will always be the exceptional realtor successors, they worked long and hard to get there, but their listing fees are far, far too high. The rich thinkers started out, soon found out there was no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, it was only a pile of bills and more bills, in the once colorful pot and it’s still raining bills with Christmas just around the corner.

For those realtors that did well and never have the foresight of putting a little wad away for a rainy day, they will get very wet over the coming months ahead.

Quote of the day: Money often costs too much.

#51 JacqueShellacque on 10.18.22 at 6:24 pm

The logical fallacy you’re employing here, Garth, is called the problem of induction. You’re using past results to predict the future. Which may work. Until it doesn’t.

Are the little hairs on the back of your neck better leading indicators? Thanks. I’ll take history. – Garth

#52 Jens on 10.18.22 at 6:26 pm

Dumb question, but:

Isn’t a bottoming stock market the effect, rather than the cause, of more people wanting to sell, i.e. go into cash, than those wanting to buy? So of course, the two are always correlated.

Nice thing is that as smart individuals, we can buck the trend and buy when everyone else sells. But if everyone thought like that, the markets wouldn’t be down in the first place.

#53 Bartman on 10.18.22 at 6:27 pm

#34 Turner Nation
You are quite the soothsayer. I am now a believer. The Germans never saw it coming either.

#54 You know Val on 10.18.22 at 6:29 pm

Maybe it is this different this time looks like everyone is running out of trust

#55 Søren Angst on 10.18.22 at 6:30 pm

A Mea Culpa on my Threadbare Portfolio value change YTD. Just ran it yesterday vs. Jan 2022 start value and I am in the red:

-2%

By comparison:

S&P 500 YTD is -22.4%
Berkshire Hathaway is -7.75%

[Amateur me vs. the “Oracles” Warren & Charlie]

—————-

Do I care?

Naw.

1 month of dividends wiped out an entire years worth of portfolio loss. Which means cash wise I’m 9 months worth of dividends in the green.

Why today I bought more ETF shares with dividend cash.

yeah DRIP

Dividends are paid per share. Don’t have to sell any to have cash flowing in.

NOT Grouch Times for me … so far.

#56 jess on 10.18.22 at 6:31 pm

..”All of this brought shame to me and my family for which I am really sincerely sorry,” he said. “My name and my family have suffered greatly since June of 2018.”

shame as an after effect

Under Immigration and Refugee Protection Act regulations, to obtain a study permit, a foreign national has to prove they have enough money to support themselves and any family members while they attend school.

Benito advised clients they needed to be able to show they had about $17,000 in their bank account.

When they told Benito they didn’t have that much money in their accounts, he temporarily loaned them the $17,000.

Benito and his employees referred to the $17,000 as “show money” and charged between $200 to $500 for the loan. Oct. 5 to employing eight illegal foreign nationals between 2016 and 2018 in Edmonton and Calgary.

“It’s aggravating [they] built a business on the backs of hiring illegal foreign nationals and paid them less than the minimum wage,” federal Crown prosecutor Erin Eacott told the judge.

“[They] took advantage of people desperate to stay in Canada.”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/former-mla-carl-benito-fined-75-000-for-immigration-fraud-1.6617783

#57 Linda on 10.18.22 at 6:32 pm

Today’s blog dog photo looks very much like a grumpy Ewok:)

While 2022 has not been the most upbeat year from a portfolio perspective I for one don’t see the point of bailing & locking in what I expect will be temporary losses. So will continue to stick with the 60/40 B&D plan.

One thing I’m wondering about is how ongoing retirements will affect inflation. With more jobs available than people applying to fill them & the Boomer retirement wave ramping up – apparently there have been over 300,000 new Canadian retirees for the 2022 calendar year to date – seems like an inflation trigger to me. Employers are increasing wages, offering incentives & sweetening existing employee benefits in an effort to attract & retain staff. If Boomers are going to continue to retire at current rates would expect that inflationary side effect to continue for a few years.

#58 Blobby on 10.18.22 at 6:33 pm

#40 Tony:

Pretty darn sure you’ve missed the point there.

#59 Crystal Clear Vision on 10.18.22 at 6:39 pm

#22 Non Plused

^^^^^^^^^^

Brilliant, intelligent thesis.
BANG ON!!

I thought it the same way, but you wrote it.
Thank you!

#60 Sail Away on 10.18.22 at 6:56 pm

#18 IHCTD9 on 10.18.22 at 4:17 pm

Yeah, I think the hunters out here have it pretty easy. They ride right to the stand, then ride back out with deer in tow. Do all the cleaning and hang the meat right in their garage. The leftovers get hauled out into the back 40 for the coyotes.

“Luxury” hunting.

——–

I’ve done plenty of stand hunting, especially when younger, and a good stand can be productive- but cold, especially as the hours tick by. If you’re ever invited to join, I’d suggest wearing a snowsuit or bringing a nice warm sleeping bag along.

I do love the remote mountains, vertical hiking, undisturbed wildlife, wide open landscapes, gigantic untouched valleys, camping out, and especially that successful campfire meal of tender, salted backstrap deep-fried in kidney fat. Meat appetizer, meat main course and meat dessert. Oh baby.

#61 Cheese on 10.18.22 at 6:59 pm

VFV or XFN, I cannot decide….

Søren, would you share the ticker of this ETN you speak of?

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.18.22 at 7:05 pm

@#59 You Need Glasses

#22 Nonplused’s vomitorium was a confused mishmash of internet conspiracy theories interwoven with paranoia and “hopium”.
The fact that you were thinking the same thing says volumes.

File it under fiction at the local Comic store.

#63 Quintilian on 10.18.22 at 7:14 pm

Investors have more money in cash than at any time since the Twin Towers in NYC were felled by terrorists.

Didn’t 911 hatch the Greenspan Put?

It seems to me, at least I am hopeful, that the Greenspan Put has finally been axed, and perhaps measurable fundamentals may play an important role in asset pricing.

Maybe that steep rise in the S&P graph should be accompanied with a disclaimer:

Past performance was based on free money; future returns may be a disappointment.

You might want to look at interest rates in some of the periods mentioned – 2000, 2002, 2008. Research, then type. Always a better outcome. – Garth

#64 Cash is King on 10.18.22 at 7:15 pm

Many trillions in financial losses around the world. Canada’s housing markets are doomed. Buying 10 houses in the USA costs less than a condo and 20 houses costs less than a townhouse or house. Pssst the hot deals are on the American side of the border dumbos.

#65 Sail Away on 10.18.22 at 7:16 pm

#25 Søren Angst on 10.18.22 at 4:43 pm

…SA also hunts farm raised pheasants in Red Deer.

——–

Hunt nothing. I just use a big, cinch-able net and 20 lbs of corn. Super productive for both planted pheasants and the neighbour’s chickens.

#66 Old Typo on 10.18.22 at 7:18 pm

#48 Old Boot on 10.18.22 at 6:17 pm

with with

#67 Søren Angst on 10.18.22 at 7:25 pm

#61 Cheese

Nope. I don’t like to give financial advice out save the obvious like NXF a Cdn oil ETF that pays a quarterly dividend of 10% with YTD stock price appreciation, net of dividends, of 21.54%.

Besides, this is Garth’s Blog.

If you really want to know fire off an email to Garth. He knows how to get a hold of me.

Still Garth, you arbitrate on that.

It is high risk and you really have to do research to understand it, daily follow up to make sure all is well etc. and so I don’t encourage it for the faint of heart or spur of the moment investing. It’s β is 1.77.

#68 WTF on 10.18.22 at 7:29 pm

This can’t be good

https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/y7kqcc/a_chinese_shows_you_what_happens_when_the_housing/

#69 Salad on 10.18.22 at 7:40 pm

It really comes down to fundamentals.

What exactly will push up the stock market?

#70 Tmac on 10.18.22 at 7:59 pm

I have bought on the lows of all these major events and it has lead to overall positive results, launching my net worth higher than I could have expected.
I say if it is different this time then I would recommended investing in bullets and fuel because everything else will collapse. Until then, stay invested.

#71 Steven on 10.18.22 at 8:08 pm

Umm It IS different this time.

The world’s population has DOUBLED since 1973 = more people and less resources.

Demographics in many countries are HORRIBLE – China, Japan, Europe, Russia, Canada to name a few.

DEBT levels rarely have ever been higher for Governments and people.

Things WILL get better..wait a decade for GROWTH to return after the debt is washed away.

Good luck. LONG OIL after the midterms. Anything else is a GAMBLE.

#72 BitcoinBro on 10.18.22 at 8:11 pm

I hope you’re right, Garth. I really do.

Many reputable thinkers are comparing this time to the 1930s, not the 70s or 80s. That doesn’t mean World War 3 is around the corner, but the possibility we are staring at the worst decade in all of our lifetimes is very real. The toxic stew of financial hardship for most of the population, increasingly radical politics, and distrust in public institutions leads to bloodshed and revolution. In that sense, that wouldn’t be different this time either.

#73 Ice-ovid on 10.18.22 at 8:15 pm

Is the narrative being prepared for…Pandemic II: The Return?

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/oct/19/next-pandemic-may-come-from-melting-glaciers-new-data-shows

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.18.22 at 8:21 pm

@#68 WTF
Yep.
Ghost cities with unsellable, unrentable apartments, Condos and townhouses.
“Chairman for Life” Xi Jinping will inherit this slowly unfolding real estate disaster.
Looks good on him.

#75 Cheese on 10.18.22 at 8:22 pm

No worries, Søren, I was simply curious, I only hold XEG in the O&G space. :)

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.18.22 at 8:26 pm

#164 Sail Away on 10.18.22 at 3:57 pm
#157 IHCTD9 on 10.18.22 at 2:48 pm

Re: hunting

No ATV’s? They haul just about all the big stuff out of the bush here with those. They come in Tactical Black, Olive Drab, Desert Sand, and Real Tree Camo, you know :)

——–

Almost all the big game hunting we do is either totally inaccessible to vehicles or in designated ‘no motorized vehicle’ protected areas. Hiking in 7-8km to set up camp almost completely eliminates other hunters.
—————
Sailo,
Thank you for hunting in a sustainable way.
Just a question:
How many Moose cadavers fit into your Tesla?

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.18.22 at 8:30 pm

@#69 Salad
“What exactly will push up the stock market?”
++++
Inflation tamed.
Stabilized bank rates.
Unemployment at a healthy 5%
People like you and me spending money again.
No one mentions “recession” for at least 6 months.
Putin in purgatory.
Elon Musk on the Moon.

Where IS his starman car anyway?
200 million miles away?
250 million?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwicqLLGhOv6AhU0MX0KHRuCA6YQFnoECCYQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fobserver.com%2F2022%2F02%2Fwhere-is-elon-musk-tesla-roadster-spacex-launch%2F&usg=AOvVaw27kFzTdlVf5MiwVNum3D7D

#78 kommykim on 10.18.22 at 8:34 pm

RE:#21 I have 3 kids on 10.18.22 at 4:31 pm
How would they fuel the planes and takes to get our troops there?
The carbon tax alone would bankrupt our military.

=======================================

Ummm… The same government that funds the military also collects those carbon taxes, so how would this be a problem again?
Maybe don’t have any more kids: We need to keep Canada’s average IQ from dropping even more.

#79 Steven on 10.18.22 at 8:49 pm

I believe that the major reason we have not been told about how the economy really works is because it would simply be too disturbing to understand the real situation.

Bank Vault in Heaven..Richard Thompson

Got a bank vault in heaven, got my name on the door
Every day I get richer, add a little bit more
Come you tellers and lenders and lend me some more
Got a bank vault in heaven and it’s mine for evermore

And the angels sing “Fly, fly, fly”
The angels sing “Fly, fly, fly”
Fly from the darkness that covers you all
Fly to the sky where the only wall is infinity, infinity

Going to shine down from heaven right into your room
Take the minds of your children right off to the moon
Every mud hut and igloo, every penthouse and farm
I’ll shine down from heaven and I’ll do my snake-charm

Sound familiar Garth?

#80 AACI Homedog on 10.18.22 at 8:49 pm

Those that don’t recall history are destined to repeat it…

Thanks, Garth, for the laughs…Adele, bug spit, etc…

Good reading.

#81 Dogman01 on 10.18.22 at 8:58 pm

#67 Søren Angst on 10.18.22 at 7:25 pm

NXF.B = Unhedged to CAD$

I just got this bad feeling about the $CAD still…

————————————

If you want a contrarian, to our trusted MSM, background on the build up to Ukraine crisis this one is interesting:

https://fair.org/home/what-you-should-really-know-about-ukraine/

#82 Michael in-north-york on 10.18.22 at 9:03 pm

#22 Nonplused on 10.18.22 at 4:35 pm

The Russia-Ukraine war is over, so thankfully we don’t have to worry about that anymore.
===

The war is not over, Putin got 200,000 new conscripts. He wants to use his fresh cannon fodder for another attack on the Ukrainian capital.

Your idea about the ethnic composition of the disputed areas is incorrect. The villages there are Ukrainian, the towns are populated by Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Towns have more people and the Russian language is spoken more often than Ukrainian. But the loyalties do not always align with the first language. A fair number of Russian-speakers prefer Ukraine, and the separation movement would never gain steam there if it was not ignited by a group of Kremlin-sponsored thugs.

Your hope that Europe will fold is baseless. They have to deal with higher heating bills, but they stored enough gas to last for the whole winter.

Meanwhile, Russian consumers face higher heating bills as well. Their state-run gas company has more gas than it can sell, but they used to subsidize their domestic operations with the revenue coming from Europe. As the revenue from Europe got cut dramatically, they have to charge their local customers more to stay afloat.

#83 The Triumph of the Optimist on 10.18.22 at 9:14 pm

Things are different this time. Advanced economies are deep in debt like never before. The war in Ukraine is nothing but the prologue to a military confrontation between the US and China. Inflation is off the charts and people are hurting and crazy. Internal social disorder is everywhere. There is an ongoing attempt to change the world order. Climate disasters are making all worse than ever. Species are going extinct at a rate that dwarves previous mass extensions. Stocks markets are nothing more than a “political utility” these days (specially in the US; it was the Trump barometer of success).

Are we going to get over? I think so. I hope so. But it won’t be as easy a ride like the one in the “peaceful” decades following WW2.

#84 The Triumph of the Optimist on 10.18.22 at 9:29 pm

“Are the little hairs on the back of your neck better leading indicators? Thanks. I’ll take history. – Garth”

You should look beyond the last 40 decades if you are truly serious about the history of markets. 40 years is not enough to be considered free of recency bias.

#85 Dmitry on 10.18.22 at 9:31 pm

Garth, the term “the Ukraine war” that you used is offensive. It implies that Ukraine has civil war. There is no such thing. It is Russian war, started in February of 2014 by Russia and escalated to all-out effort, again by Russia, in February of 2022. The correct way to refer to it would be Russian-Ukrainian war.

#86 The Triumph of the Optimist on 10.18.22 at 9:42 pm

“Past performance was based on free money; future returns may be a disappointment.

You might want to look at interest rates in some of the periods mentioned – 2000, 2002, 2008. Research, then type. Always a better outcome. – Garth”

You might also like to look at the total debt burden on those periods. It was way easier to service our debt back then, than now, with the same interest rate. With our current debt levels a much smaller interest rate is harder to service.

Where would the demand for new treasuries come from (to service the debt, the expenditures of the government)? From the Chinese, from the little guy? I think it will come from Central Banks. This overtime will mess with the Dollar hegemony as it will get devalued (not with respect to other currencies) but with respect to goods and services. Inflation is the instrument of truth. We will see who’s naked.

#87 Doug t on 10.18.22 at 9:46 pm

# 68 wtf

Looks like a modern version of the old TV show The Prisoner lol

#88 Steven Rowlandson on 10.18.22 at 9:55 pm

DELETED

#89 The Triumph of the Optimist on 10.18.22 at 10:02 pm

“Past performance was based on free money; future returns may be a disappointment.”

You might want to look at interest rates in some of the periods mentioned – 2000, 2002, 2008. Research, then type. Always a better outcome. – Garth”

Find table “$100 in S&P 500, 1900 – 2022” in the following link:

https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1900?amount=100&endYear=2022

Observe the curve. It was flat and practically zero all the way to 1982 ( when inflation was broken by Volcker).

The S&P 500 truly exploded in recent decades (which incidentally have seen the lowest interest rates since the Great Depression more than once).

Garth, look at the curve. Do you truly think it is not different this time? I mean, the curve would need to go vertically.

I think Quintilian is up to something.

#90 Doug in London on 10.18.22 at 10:17 pm

What was that you said about a buying opportunity, Mr. Buffett?

#91 RP on 10.18.22 at 10:24 pm

Wow Garth. Amazing blog post today. Informative, inspiration and right on point. You distilled the combined impacts of current world events and also provided historic context as a guide on how we should move forward !!

#92 LJ on 10.18.22 at 10:28 pm

#39 If any of the NIMBY pipeline BC or Quebec people have the nerve to WHINE about energy costs this Winter

welp, no – here in BC it was almost 30 degrees the other day. our building still doesn’t have even have heat on yet. What we will need to worry about is drowning from atmospheric flooding…

#93 Quintilian on 10.18.22 at 10:29 pm

“You might want to look at interest rates in some of the periods mentioned – 2000, 2002, 2008. Research, then type. Always a better outcome. – Garth”

From a high of 6.47 in 2000 to a low of .95 in late 2008 Cheap , Cheap money if you ask me.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart

#94 I don’t know on 10.18.22 at 10:47 pm

#86 The Triumph of the Optimist on 10.18.22 at

There’s always an “ongoing attempt to change the world order” so that’s nothing new.

Neither is the fact that it will fail, like always.

You said it yourself, you need to look beyond 4 decades to get a true reading of markets. If you do that and go back further, you’ll see..despite whatever turmoil is going on.. markets move in one direction over time.

Your post(s) are a contradiction of themselves. The arguments (like all others of their nature) flaccid.

IDK

#95 The General on 10.18.22 at 10:50 pm

#85- Dmitry: You’ve got it wrong on the Ukrainian Civil War, in my opinion. After all, The Ukraine liquidated over 14,000 of its own citizens from 2014 to 2022 in the Donbass. Not a peep from the west was heard. In fact, now this is a proxy war between N.A.T.O. and Russia. The cannon fodder happens to be the Ukrainian Army, which WAS the largest standing army in Europe. N.A.T.O. trained and armed, I might add. Their offensive now peters out, and the real offensive begins. By that I refer to Russia’s turning the pain dial up about 10 notches. Woe Ukraine.

#96 the Jaguar on 10.18.22 at 11:10 pm

#88 is unacceptable and should be deleted.

#97 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.18.22 at 11:24 pm

@#83,84,86 &89 My Optimistic Octopus teacher

Is it true you can fit yourself into a Coke bottle and screw the lid back on really really tight?

#98 Faron on 10.18.22 at 11:28 pm

#95 The General on 10.18.22 at 10:50 pm

this is a proxy war between N.A.T.O. and Russia.

No, it’s not. You don’t seem to know what a proxy war is.

#99 Ballingsford on 10.18.22 at 11:35 pm

DELETED

#100 Elon Fanboy on 10.18.22 at 11:51 pm

#61 Cheese

Check out USOI.

#101 albertaguy in ab on 10.19.22 at 12:13 am

Garth, time to reinstate the 3 post limit? It’s being monopolized again by the blabbermouths.

#102 Michael in-north-york on 10.19.22 at 12:36 am

#95 – Ukraine doesn’t kill its citizens. Russia does – remember the two wars with the breakaway republic of Chechnya.

Proxy war – do you mean Putin’s Russia is a proxy for China? Not quite so. While China benefits from the weakening of Russia, and they will surely take Siberia when the time is right, China didn’t instruct Putin to go into the war. The kremlin’s idiot did that on his own.

Do not put your hopes on the attacks against Ukrainian civilian power plants that Putin started this month. Either Ukraine will get the defence systems and block those attacks. Or they will turn the pain dial on the adjacent Russian cities. Either way, Putin can’t win.

#103 DON on 10.19.22 at 12:43 am

#82 Michael in-north-york on 10.18.22 at 9:03 pm
#22 Nonplused on 10.18.22 at 4:35 pm

The Russia-Ukraine war is over, so thankfully we don’t have to worry about that anymore.
===

The war is not over, Putin got 200,000 new conscripts. He wants to use his fresh cannon fodder for another attack on the Ukrainian capital.

Your idea about the ethnic composition of the disputed areas is incorrect. The villages there are Ukrainian, the towns are populated by Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians. Towns have more people and the Russian language is spoken more often than Ukrainian. But the loyalties do not always align with the first language. A fair number of Russian-speakers prefer Ukraine, and the separation movement would never gain steam there if it was not ignited by a group of Kremlin-sponsored thugs.

Your hope that Europe will fold is baseless. They have to deal with higher heating bills, but they stored enough gas to last for the whole winter.

Meanwhile, Russian consumers face higher heating bills as well. Their state-run gas company has more gas than it can sell, but they used to subsidize their domestic operations with the revenue coming from Europe. As the revenue from Europe got cut dramatically, they have to charge their local customers more to stay afloat.

*********
Not sure where you are getting your histotlry lesson from.

On another point the Western countries are talking about rolling black outs. So did they or did’t they secure enough oil…gas…coal and firewood to heat their homes this winter. The French are currently protesting in the streets over the cost of living. Your intentions are good but your sense of facts is off.

#104 MLwS on 10.19.22 at 1:13 am

Well said, Garth.

Geopolitics, the market, the Steerage Section are things I can’t control.

I just gotta focus on the NOW. Now, what’s for lunch?

Came for the blog, stayed around for the comments.

#105 Faron on 10.19.22 at 1:24 am

#163 Always the Same on 10.18.22 at 3:25 pm

scientist don’t think so

Scientists

Annoying ain’t it?

#106 Dr V on 10.19.22 at 1:29 am

89 Optimist

Here, try this. Click on the “log” box. You can also check
the inflation adjust box.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

#107 yvr_lurker on 10.19.22 at 1:33 am

It’s never not a time to buy into the market according to Garth. I’ll sit and wait for a few months until the dust looks like it is settling. There is nothing on the horizon that is going to rapidly propel anything forward, and so won’t miss much by waiting for a bit.

#108 Jane24 on 10.19.22 at 1:36 am

I laughed out loud this morning at this photo of the red rough haired Brussels Griffon, the angry dog photo above. As you know I have Galileo, a fellow rough red and this is his expression around supper time. Dogs are such a joy in life.

#109 Faron on 10.19.22 at 3:01 am

#48 Old Boot on 10.18.22 at 6:17 pm

homeless camps

Damn trashy of you to instantly try to score points on the back of a very sad and tragic event.

Also, at least try to be accurate in your fear mongering.

Despite some early media reports of a “homeless encampment” at Broadview Park, authorities confirmed there was only a single tent.

You and Sail Away ain’t so great with facts are you? But, you also aren’t scientists, so not surprising.

#110 Dmitry on 10.19.22 at 3:47 am

#95 The General- you have no idea what you are talking about. Better educate yourself before talking about this. Neither your historical perspective nor understanding of possible future events make any sense. Unless, of course, if you are paid to spread propaganda. In that case what you wrote makes perfect sense.

#111 Senator Bluto on 10.19.22 at 6:43 am

DELETED

#112 Wrk.dover on 10.19.22 at 7:11 am

#144 IHCTD9 on 10.18.22 at 12:28 pm
What sawmill do you have?
________________________________

Too much screen time for you big guy!
We discussed that, I put the link, not much more than a year ago.
SMG 13hp, out of Quebec City. Much modified.
Doubled my wife’s money in liquid value since purchase.
Nonplused gets it.

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.19.22 at 7:24 am

@#109 Faron

The person was homeless and they were camped.
Sounds like a homeless camp to me.

#114 Hole in Some on 10.19.22 at 7:42 am

So there’s a lot of panic, so what. If you’re panicking you screwed up. When a certain someone told me to invest all my cash and apply for a HELOC I said “Nah”. And now, with a big whack of cashey cash cash I’m sleeping fine. Except on the nights it gets too hot, but then I turn on the air conditioner. But, waking up I still have the cash, then I go to the pool, watch my Bloomberg, life is fine. Dividends are still dividing. Learn your lesson. Ten years of cash is where it’s at.

#115 I don’t know on 10.19.22 at 7:45 am

Dmitry on 10.19.22 at 3:47 am

Yes. That post is incorrect in every way imaginable.

But don’t forget that’s the point.

The point is to spread misinformation so much that people begin questioning the narrative.

These kinds of posts were easy to identify earlier, but as we get near the 8 month mark of a 3 day operation, it’s now even easier to identify and call out for the trash it is.

Our host does a decent job of moderating these comments, but it’s clear the weaponization of social media is creeping in. It’s a good reason to shutter the comments for good if you ask me.

IDK

#116 Murphy on 10.19.22 at 7:56 am

Please God kill the power to Faron’s computer

#117 epic bear on 10.19.22 at 8:39 am

#89 The Triumph of the Optimist on 10.18.22 at 10:02 pm
The S&P 500 truly exploded in recent decades (which incidentally have seen the lowest interest rates since the Great Depression more than once).

Garth, look at the curve. Do you truly think it is not different this time? I mean, the curve would need to go vertically.

__________________________________

that’s an analog chart. try logarithmic/semi-log
many amateur chartists make that mistake. just like the chart posted in this article. long term charts can’t be viewed with arithmetic scales. it’s pretty obvious why.

#118 Calgary on 10.19.22 at 9:36 am

With Trudeau relentless hostility against O & G, and fertilizer. Both Alberta and Saskatchewan should break away.

You realize, of course, that is impossible. Are you just looking for attention? – Garth

#119 the Jaguar on 10.19.22 at 9:42 am

Snippets – NP- Not one, but two articles in the Post this morning where the ‘meme’ on fossil fuels appears to be changing……….

‘The Biden administration’s attempt to lower gasoline prices before the November mid-terms has been both amusing and disappointing. First the president attributed the runup in oil and gas prices to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Then his government drained about a million barrels a day from the strategic oil reserve. After six months of that and with gasoline prices creeping up again, Mr. Biden went to Saudi Arabia to ask Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for his help in keeping oil prices from rising at least through to the midterm elections.
The prince said no, which was totally predictable. It appears none of the foreign policy experts advising the president understands basic human relations, let alone Arab culture. You can’t call someone a murderer and then expect him to turn the other cheek and meekly accede to your request for a big personal favour.’ (F. Lazar) +++

“Fossil fuels will be a vital source of energy for decades to come, yet the Canadian and U.S. governments remain mesmerized by climate-change evangelism and continue to stifle production of oil and gas for domestic markets, never mind for increasingly desperate allies.
It is time to confront the miasma of climate zealots and recognize that energy security is the handmaiden of economic and national security. Common sense and self-interest should dictate greater emphasis on innovation, rational regulations and investments that support fossil fuel development, and a measured approach to green energy. (Derek Burney)+++

#120 Steven Rowlandson on 10.19.22 at 9:42 am

6.9% inflation reported for September and higher food prices. Someone looking for an excuse to lower interest rates too soon? Mmmm.

#121 Mr Happy on 10.19.22 at 9:48 am

#10 KT on 10.18.22 at 3:45 pm
So if you have maxed TFSA invested in ETFs but are sitting on a bunch of excess cash that needs to go into a non-reg account, What do you put it on?

Straight from the Master:

Cash, 1% (high-yield security)


Bonds (short term, floating rate, provincial, corporate), 26%

Preferred’s (active Canadian, hedged North American): 13%


Canadian equities (TSX, dividend, 5% REITs):22%


US equities (S&P hedged, S&P 500, small cap, value, biotech): 20%


International equities (global index, global dividend, emerging): 18%

and it is a good time to do so…so you know… ;)

#122 millmech on 10.19.22 at 9:51 am

Strong CPI numbers means 75 basis points possibly 100 basis points next week.
Lots of these posts now, going to be getting ugly now, at least they are growing their equity and not throwing money away on rent.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/y81k4n/stascan_september_2022_cpi_numbers/

#123 KNOW IT ALL on 10.19.22 at 10:07 am

DON’T TRIP…

BUY THE DIP!!!

#124 Opee on 10.19.22 at 10:15 am

I’m still grouchy, no answer to my comment a while back. Deficits! of our country (politicians)create interest payments, now very large ones. Who is getting those payments? Canadian Fed, OK, then where do those monies get distributed, to whom? Like a cloud, where do the drops go? Come on man, someone tell us, details matter.

#125 Shawn on 10.19.22 at 10:19 am

Canadian Inflation has peaked

Top of the press release…

“In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.9% on a year-over-year basis, decelerating from a 7.0% gain in August, marking the third consecutive monthly slowdown in headline inflation. Lower gasoline prices were mostly responsible for the deceleration.”

“Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% year over year in September, following a gain of 5.3% in August.”

“On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1% in September. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.4%.”

Overall inflation in September came in a little higher than I hoped but the cooling trend continues.

Yes, food inflation remains far too high at 10.3% year over year. But it too will cool in the months ahead.

The sky is not falling.

#126 Old Boot on 10.19.22 at 10:29 am

#109 Faron on 10.19.22 at 3:01 am

#48 Old Boot on 10.18.22 at 6:17 pm

homeless camps

Damn trashy of you to instantly try to score points on the back of a very sad and tragic event.

Also, at least try to be accurate in your fear mongering.

Despite some early media reports of a “homeless encampment” at Broadview Park, authorities confirmed there was only a single tent.

You and Sail Away ain’t so great with facts are you? But, you also aren’t scientists, so not surprising.

————–

Your knee-jerk emotional responses remind me of that old Farside cartoon with the married amoeba couple:

“Stimulus, response! Is that all you’re capable of?”

Just because he wasn’t in a group camp at the time he murdered someone doesn’t mean he hasn’t been living in them, merely that he wasn’t at the time of his crime. Camps aren’t exactly a fixed address.

You heard about the Crab Park tent city’s stab-a-thon, right?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/suspect-charged-in-crab-park-stabbings-1.6613264

I hope this doesn’t spoil your upcoming Crab Park Mindfulness and Meditation retreat, run by Vancouver Coastal Health and the East End chapter of the 81 Club.

#127 Mikey on 10.19.22 at 10:32 am

#187 The meek? on 10.17.22 at 10:12 am
Prior post.

Yup nothing good is going on. If direction is not changed and highly unlikely.
The next 10 years will look nothing like the last 10.
Greed and control rules the day.

#128 Dharma Bum on 10.19.22 at 10:32 am

#39 Soren Angst

One reason why I left Canada. How Gov Canada can mismanage the most educated country on Planet Earth into a morass is beyond me.

But they did and Cdns voted for that, a few … enjoy.
———————————————————————————————————

You are lucky that you had an escape hatch.

The ignorance of the dupes that fell for the con that is Trudeau, and voted for that lying, smirking, stuttering, bumbling, grifting, virtue signalling, identity politicking, pandering, blackface wearing, sari wearing, scandal mongering, overspending, communist loving hypocrite is astounding.

#129 Quintilian on 10.19.22 at 10:34 am

#119 Steven Rowlandson on 10.19.22 at 9:42 am
6.9% inflation reported for September and higher food prices. Someone looking for an excuse to lower interest rates too soon? Mmmm

No, nothing nefarious going on, it’s headline inflation, it confirms just how crazy Crowdie’s prediction of $3 per litre was.

And a confirmation that you should not pay attention to people who learned economics from right wing radio .

#130 Dharma Bum on 10.19.22 at 10:39 am

#43 The Jaguar

Are you sure? I think it’s a werewolf or maybe Eddie Munster.
—————————————————————————————————–

For some of the younger folks out there (mills, moisters, lost generation tick tockers, etc.) this is what you missed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HM0riizU8Ls

Cultural GOLD of the 60s!

Now I can’t get it outta my head. THANKS, Jag!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_S8yau2NWs

#131 Dharma Bum on 10.19.22 at 10:48 am

#46 Yorkville Renter

Worry about the things you can control.
Everything else is just noise.
——————————————————————————————————

Wise words. Words to live by.

“There is only one way to happiness and that is to cease worrying about things which are beyond the power or our will.” – Epictetus

“You have power over your mind – not outside events. Realise this, and you will find strength.” – Marcus Aurelius

#132 Shawn on 10.19.22 at 10:51 am

The CPI report

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221019/dq221019a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

See the text and the tables within for details. Or just blow a gasket and shout that the data is manipulated. It’s amusing to picture how some people’s heads explode at news that’s just not bad enough for their tastes.

#133 Michael in-north-york on 10.19.22 at 10:59 am

#103 DON on 10.19.22 at 12:43 am

Not sure where you are getting your histotlry lesson from.

On another point the Western countries are talking about rolling black outs. So did they or did’t they secure enough oil…gas…coal and firewood to heat their homes this winter. The French are currently protesting in the streets over the cost of living. Your intentions are good but your sense of facts is off.
===

I haven’t taken any “histotlry” lessons. If you are asking about the history of eastern Ukrainian lands, that can be researched and Google is your friend.

Europe has enough energy to survive the winter, doesn’t mean no impact at all. They might have to go with rolling blackouts and stop certain industries.

In the free countries, someone is always protesting. Sometimes you have to ignore them and do what’s in the long-term interests of the country. Putin must be punished by the economic means, even though that hits us as well. If he is allowed to prevail in Ukraine, he will wage a war on NATO next.

#134 Sail Away on 10.19.22 at 11:00 am

TSLA Q3 earnings today. Excellence is expected.

#135 DON on 10.19.22 at 11:04 am

#125 Shawn on 10.19.22 at 10:19 am
Canadian Inflation has peaked

Top of the press release…

“In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.9% on a year-over-year basis, decelerating from a 7.0% gain in August, marking the third consecutive monthly slowdown in headline inflation. Lower gasoline prices were mostly responsible for the deceleration.”

“Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% year over year in September, following a gain of 5.3% in August.”

“On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1% in September. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.4%.”

Overall inflation in September came in a little higher than I hoped but the cooling trend continues.

Yes, food inflation remains far too high at 10.3% year over year. But it too will cool in the months ahead.

The sky is not falling.

************
Any chance you worked for Stats Canada in your lifetime?

Food inflation is one of the most important for the boats on the ground. UK inflation was easing and now it is not.

Biden is again pulling more gasoline from the US reserves…for optics as the US midterms are near.

#136 Faron on 10.19.22 at 11:24 am

#126 Old Boot on 10.19.22 at 10:29 am

Oh, cool! You have already solved the case for the RCMP. Excellent work considering you live in Victoria and are a retired internet punter.

Trashy. An RCMP officer was killed doing her job. That’s sad and tragic. Save the fact-lite and feeble attempt at scoring points for later.

#137 another tinpot economist on 10.19.22 at 11:35 am

Right?

i tried hiring 3 contractors and they all want to be paid in cash, must be a Trudeau thing.

soon we will be like Greece …total underground.

my weekly visits to my bank branch confirm it’s rampant.

#138 The General on 10.19.22 at 11:41 am

#110- Dmitry: Reality bites. My comments are reality. As for getting paid to comment on this blog, what is your price?

#139 Linda on 10.19.22 at 11:44 am

#125 ‘Shawn’ – unfortunately chances are the price of groceries will continue to increase. Many food producing regions world wide have had serious issues with drought, fire, flood & other such crop reducing disasters. While some producers have announced a (temporary) freeze on price increases eventually the cost escalation in the supply chain will be passed onto the consumer.

#140 Observer on 10.19.22 at 11:45 am

#126 Old Boot on 10.19.22 at 10:29 am
#109 Faron on 10.19.22 at 3:01 am

#48 Old Boot on 10.18.22 at 6:17 pm

homeless camps

Damn trashy of you to instantly try to score points on the back of a very sad and tragic event.

Also, at least try to be accurate in your fear mongering.

Despite some early media reports of a “homeless encampment” at Broadview Park, authorities confirmed there was only a single tent.

You and Sail Away ain’t so great with facts are you? But, you also aren’t scientists, so not surprising.

————–

Your knee-jerk emotional responses remind me of that old Farside cartoon with the married amoeba couple:

“Stimulus, response! Is that all you’re capable of?”

Just because he wasn’t in a group camp at the time he murdered someone doesn’t mean he hasn’t been living in them, merely that he wasn’t at the time of his crime. Camps aren’t exactly a fixed address.

You heard about the Crab Park tent city’s stab-a-thon, right?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/suspect-charged-in-crab-park-stabbings-1.6613264

I hope this doesn’t spoil your upcoming Crab Park Mindfulness and Meditation retreat, run by Vancouver Coastal Health and the East End chapter of the 81 Club.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Speaking of “knee-jerk emotional responses “, yours fits the description Old Boot.

#141 The General on 10.19.22 at 11:50 am

#98- faron: As usual, you shoot from the lip. Please offer facts, instead of lame insults. And not from the usual suspects: cbcnnbctv etcetera.

#142 The General on 10.19.22 at 11:59 am

#115- idk: Prove what I said wrong, if you dare. Your solution to the comment is to ban comments? How commie of you. But I suppose you could start your own blog and cancel anyone who disagrees, or label them the evil manipulator of the week. Or start your own kill list, like the Kiev junta does? Including westerners who disagree with their narrative and children?

#143 Econsensus on 10.19.22 at 12:14 pm

Refer to the historical data of inflation from link below.

Despite the Sep 2022 YoY dropping to 6.9 from Aug 2022 YoY number of 7 per cent, inflation has not plateaued. Referencing the historical data of YoY inflation rates and comparing them to the latest YoY numbers indicate that inflation is still increasing month to month.

The YoY rate of Inflation in Aug 2021 was 4.1 and in Sep 2021 it was 4.4. During this period, the rate of inflation was increasing. Additionally, Aug 2020 YoY was 0.1 and Sep 2020 was 0.5. Even during this period, the rate of inflation was increasing. These historical metrics indicate there is month to month inflation still occurring.

https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/canada-historical-inflation-rate/

#144 The General on 10.19.22 at 12:18 pm

#102- Michael in north york: Siberia to China speculation is just that, speculation. What is your source? Lalalalalala…the N.A.T.O./Ukrainian army has depleted our stocks, leaving the west more defenseless by the day. This is a bad thing. This is a major strategic error, since our manufacturing has been gutted and sent overseas. Who benefits?

#145 The General on 10.19.22 at 12:28 pm

#133- Michael in north york: You don’t mind Industry shutdowns and energy rationing in Europe? Well, the people of Europe mind, and the borders are beginning to close, as they need to take care of their own. Google is your history teacher? Okay then.

#146 Faron on 10.19.22 at 12:39 pm

#131 Dharma Bum on 10.19.22 at 10:48 am

– Epictetus
– Marcus Aurelius

LOL, the stoics. Beloved by the far-right and white supremacists even though they don’t understand the philosophy. You should, at least, understand the company you share quotes with.

https://pharos.vassarspaces.net/2018/08/03/stoic-philosophy-masking-hate/

Now do the one about strong men, good time, weak bad etc.

#147 Faron on 10.19.22 at 12:46 pm

#141 The General on 10.19.22 at 11:50 am

Burden of facts is on you bud to support any of your claims from yesterday.

But, no this isn’t a proxy war. Russia’s backing of Ukrainian Russia sympathisers in the Donbas was though.

Turns out, I share this view with people far smarter than I.

https://www.kcl.ac.uk/is-the-war-in-ukraine-a-proxy-conflict

#148 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.22 at 12:52 pm

“Old Boot” was made for walking.
But now he’s just a’talking”

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.22 at 12:57 pm

131 Dharma Bum on 10.19.22 at 10:48 am
#46 Yorkville Renter

Worry about the things you can control.
Everything else is just noise.
——————————————————————————————————

Wise words. Words to live by.

“There is only one way to happiness and that is to cease worrying about things which are beyond the power or our will.” – Epictetus

“You have power over your mind – not outside events. Realise this, and you will find strength.” – Marcus Aurelius
—————————
“People who just quote famous people, have nothing original to say.” – Ponzius Pilatus

#150 Adorable! on 10.19.22 at 12:58 pm

How sweet! Faron has a little sidekick ready to chime in whenever The Addict gets triggered.

Greetz, “Observer”. Yours is a lonely mission.

Say, how come your IP is the same as Faron’s? Asking for a friend.

#151 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.22 at 1:02 pm

141 The General on 10.19.22 at 11:50 am
#98- faron: As usual, you shoot from the lip. Please offer facts, instead of lame insults. And not from the usual suspects: cbcnnbctv etcetera.
——————
Are “facts” published by the “Epoch Times” ok with you.

#152 DON on 10.19.22 at 1:23 pm

#133 Michael in-north-york on 10.19.22 at 10:59 am
#103 DON on 10.19.22 at 12:43 am

Not sure where you are getting your histotlry lesson from.

On another point the Western countries are talking about rolling black outs. So did they or did’t they secure enough oil…gas…coal and firewood to heat their homes this winter. The French are currently protesting in the streets over the cost of living. Your intentions are good but your sense of facts is off.
===

I haven’t taken any “histotlry” lessons. If you are asking about the history of eastern Ukrainian lands, that can be researched and Google is your friend.

Europe has enough energy to survive the winter, doesn’t mean no impact at all. They might have to go with rolling blackouts and stop certain industries.

In the free countries, someone is always protesting. Sometimes you have to ignore them and do what’s in the long-term interests of the country. Putin must be punished by the economic means, even though that hits us as well. If he is allowed to prevail in Ukraine, he will wage a war on NATO next.

************
Thanks for pointing out the spelling mistake on ‘history’ that must make youuu feel superior and deem my comment inadmissable.

I was studying the Soviet Union, China, India etc prior to google.

You have to ignore people in free countries protesting large cost of living increases as they are just whinning…right?

Who exactly is supplying weapons to Ukraine…

#153 Michael in-north-york on 10.19.22 at 1:29 pm

#144 The General on 10.19.22 at 12:18 pm

#102- Michael in north york: Siberia to China speculation is just that, speculation. What is your source? Lalalalalala…the N.A.T.O./Ukrainian army has depleted our stocks, leaving the west more defenseless by the day. This is a bad thing. This is a major strategic error, since our manufacturing has been gutted and sent overseas. Who benefits?
===

Speculation based on the human history. A weak country with resource-reach lands, loses those lands to more powerful neighbours. Keep your Lalalalalala on, until the land is gone.

And don’t worry, U.S. has 500 HIMARS launchers, after sending 60 or so to Ukraine they will have quite a few left. Even if some items are depleted, they will be refilled quickly.

#154 Steve Bigguns on 10.19.22 at 1:32 pm

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.22 at 12:57 pm

“People who just quote famous people, have nothing original to say.” – Ponzius Pilatus

========================================

Easily one of your dumber comments. You’re no Churchill.

And you can quote me on that.

#155 Faron on 10.19.22 at 1:36 pm

#150 Adorable! on 10.19.22 at 12:58 pm

OMG, LOL. You can’t imagine more than one person introducing dissonance into your echo chamber?

But, since you know our IPs, shoot. What are they? #GambitFail

#156 Michael in-north-york on 10.19.22 at 1:37 pm

#145 The General on 10.19.22 at 12:28 pm

#133- Michael in north york: You don’t mind Industry shutdowns and energy rationing in Europe? Well, the people of Europe mind, and the borders are beginning to close, as they need to take care of their own. Google is your history teacher? Okay then.
===

They are taking care of their own by tackling the threat before it becomes a bigger threat.

Google is a good starting point to research details that no history course will give you, just because no course can include all knowledge about all parts of the world. Perhaps you cannot conduct a research on your own? Okay then.

#157 Faron on 10.19.22 at 1:38 pm

#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.22 at 12:57 pm

“People who just quote famous people, have nothing original to say.” – Ponzius Pilatus

That was hilarious. Famous people and/or the bible.

#158 Ustabe on 10.19.22 at 1:44 pm

#150 Adorable! on 10.19.22 at 12:58 pm

How sweet! Faron has a little sidekick ready to chime in whenever The Addict gets triggered.

Greetz, “Observer”. Yours is a lonely mission.

Say, how come your IP is the same as Faron’s? Asking for a friend.

Any modern browser allows one to “see” the IP via view source. On an antique bit of forum software such as this blog is, it is stunningly easy to see that the two you mention do not share the same IP.

When one has to make up facts to bolster their argumentative position one , by default, loses both the argument and credibility.

#159 Faron on 10.19.22 at 1:46 pm

#142 The General on 10.19.22 at 11:59 am

ban comments? How commie of you

Banning speech is totalitarian which may or may not be associated with communism, democracy, socialism or any of the hybrid forms of gov’t. Historically, it has been, but one does not beget the other. Seems we are going to have to add you to the fact-lite pile. Sad.

#160 Shawn on 10.19.22 at 1:57 pm

Canada Pension Plan increases for all recipients

Assuming October CPI comes in at 6.0%, the Canada Pension Plan benefits will be increased by 6.4% in January. (It’s automatically set as the average official CPI from November 2021 through October 2002)

That’s not as high as the recent grocery inflation but by January it will likely be higher than the CPI number.

It’s higher than average wages have been increasing.

It will never be enough for the more Whiny seniors (about 98% of seniors it seems) but it’s a nice increase.

#161 Dmitry on 10.19.22 at 1:57 pm

#138 The General on 10.19.22 at 11:41 am – what you are talking about and reality have absolutely nothing in common. You are spreading intentional misinformation. Misinformation bites, I’ll give you that.

Even your language suggests association with the sources of misinformation. “the Ukraine”?

As for my price which you have inquired about- it is not measured in any monetary equivalent.

Garth, please publish IP address from which those posts by The General were made.

#162 Sail Away on 10.19.22 at 2:01 pm

#135 DON on 10.19.22 at 11:04 am

Food inflation is one of the most important for the boats on the ground.

——–

As a sailor, I agree that boats on the ground are never a good thing, whether caused by food inflation or otherwise.

#163 Shawn on 10.19.22 at 2:02 pm

Carbon Ta Rebate

As an Alberta couple, we just got our latest quarterly federal carbon tax (climate action) rebate $202.25.

If you don’t get that much (or any) in your province then you’ll need to move to Alberta by December 31 in order to get yours next year.

#164 Old Boot on 10.19.22 at 2:12 pm

#136 Faron on 10.19.22 at 11:24 am

#126 Old Boot on 10.19.22 at 10:29 am

Oh, cool! You have already solved the case for the RCMP. Excellent work considering you live in Victoria and are a retired internet punter.

Trashy. An RCMP officer was killed doing her job. That’s sad and tragic. Save the fact-lite and feeble attempt at scoring points for later.

‐—————-

The facts are immutable.

If we let a population of mentally unstable people, (all of whom are armed with some type of weapon – usually an edged one), take mood-altering drugs made in dirty bathtubs, live in lawless criminal-run encampments while rendering them untouchable via a combination of magical thinking and victim-worship, the resulting harms to those who must enter this environment are entirely predictable.

Just as predictable as the injury or damage that occurs when short-sighted companies fail to address the known risks of failing to remove, contain or modify sources of potential energy.

Tent cities are reservoirs of unstable potential energy – both human and chemical – which can be relied upon to produce interpersonal violence and fires. We just can’t pinpoint when it will happen and whether the injured will be tent city residents, police, firefighters, bylaw officers, sanitation workers or paramedics.

If there were the political will to address tent cities, the same hierarchy of controls we apply to risk management can be applied to them:

In order of effectiveness

1. Elimination
2. Substitution
3. Engineering
4. Administrative
5. Personal Protective Equipment

We’re stuck on numbers 4 and 5, for reasons of fashionable ideology and lack of political will. We have seen how ineffective it is.

If the people with Kevlar vests, guns, batons, tasers and oc spray aren’t being protected by their PPE and they can’t protect society from harm due to inadequate administrative controls (laws), it’s time to declare that plan a failure and move on to higher order controls.

#165 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.22 at 2:12 pm

54 Steve Bigguns on 10.19.22 at 1:32 pm
#149 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.22 at 12:57 pm

“People who just quote famous people, have nothing original to say.” – Ponzius Pilatus

========================================

Easily one of your dumber comments. You’re no Churchill.

And you can quote me
—————————
Sorry, to disappoint you.
No one can out-quote Churchill.
But, Mark Twain, maybe?

#166 Faron on 10.19.22 at 2:12 pm

#119 the Jaguar on 10.19.22 at 9:42 am

” continue to stifle production of oil and gas for domestic markets”

Care to elaborate on that one?

#167 Faron on 10.19.22 at 2:16 pm

#161 Dmitry on 10.19.22 at 1:57 pm

I believe he admitted he uses Yandex web services, but that may have been one of the very similar trolls.

#168 Old Boot on 10.19.22 at 2:23 pm

#148 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.19.22 at 12:52 pm

“Old Boot” was made for walking.
But now he’s just a’talking”

————–

Misgendering is a hate crime.

We know this because whenever some dude in a dress commits murder or rape, the pronoun police ensure that his synthetic identity receives more consideration than does his real victim.

#169 FLHTK on 10.19.22 at 2:39 pm

Everything’s on sale, load the cart like your loading up on KD at the grocery store!!!

#170 DON on 10.19.22 at 2:39 pm

#162 Sail Away on 10.19.22 at 2:01 pm
#135 DON on 10.19.22 at 11:04 am

Food inflation is one of the most important for the boats on the ground.

——–

As a sailor, I agree that boats on the ground are never a good thing, whether caused by food inflation or otherwise.

******
ha ha…early morning spelling bee quietly quitting.

#171 another tinpot7 economist on 10.19.22 at 2:44 pm

Looking a Gift Horse in the mouth.

Good luck filling the SPR at $70.

Trump cajoled the Fed lower for votes, Biden empties the SPR for votes.

Both will have negative long term consequences.

#172 Old Boot on 10.19.22 at 2:49 pm

Don’t worry about the falling Canuck buck.

Worry about how many carbon emissions-based digital tokens you’ll be able to afford with the falling loony.

Bitcoin will trade at 10000:1

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/vancity-to-offer-carbon-footprint-tracker-for-its-visa-credit-cards-1.1834806?taid=63502d3c71fe17000142eac8

#173 Michael in-north-york on 10.19.22 at 3:28 pm

#152 DON on 10.19.22 at 1:23 pm

” Thanks for pointing out the spelling mistake on ‘history’ that must make youuu feel superior and deem my comment inadmissable.”

Well, you adopted a slightly condescending tone, doubting my knowledge on the matter without stating your points of disagreement. And you made a typo in the very same sentence. So I couldn’t resist making a little fun of that.

” I was studying the Soviet Union, China, India etc prior to google.”

Good for you. However, did you study that particular little topic, history and the ethnic composition of the lands that make the eastern and south-eastern Ukraine today? If you did, then you should be able to post specific objections to my original statements.

” You have to ignore people in free countries protesting large cost of living increases as they are just whinning…right?”

Try to govern while accommodating all the demands of every protesting group. You will not get very far.

People who disagree can cast their votes for the rivals of the today’s government.

” Who exactly is supplying weapons to Ukraine…”

We, the member countries of the NATO alliance, are supplying weapons to Ukraine. This is exactly what we should be doing.

Or do you prefer to wait until Putin invades one of the East European NATO member countries?