Self-inflicted

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  By Guest Blogger Sinan Terzioglu
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With inflation at the highest levels in over 40 years and global equity markets having one of the worst first 8 months to a year in history, I thought it would be a good time to share a 1979 BusinessWeek cover with you (below). I’ve been thinking about the timing of the article which discussed how inflation was destroying the stock market and how markets performed in the years that followed. Markets remained volatile for a few more years so those that abandoned long term diversified investment strategies in the early 1980’s likely felt like they made a good decision to preserve what they had. But those who stayed invested and consistently kept buying when they could saw their wealth compound significantly over the long term.

As we read the daily news about rising interest rates, a potential recession and the war in Ukraine, it’s easy to let fear distract us from our long term financial goals. Some of us feel we must ‘do something’ in order to stop the bleeding of our investment portfolios, so we deviate from our long term strategies. We convince ourselves because of all the risks in the world that this time is different. The reality is the risks openly discussed in the media tend to be priced in by the markets quite efficiently. Historically, equity markets have led the economy by 6-9 months so by the time we reach the worst of an economic contraction the financial markets will have bounced well off the lows because they will begin to look ahead and price in a return to growth. While nobody knows for sure when this will be those that pull out of the markets, with the plan to get back in when the news improves, often miss the best days which significantly reduces long term returns. This is a self-inflicted setback.

An investor that missed just the 10 best days out of over 10,000 from 1980 to today – less than 1/10th of 1% of days – would have reduced their average annual rate of return by 18%. Had the same investor missed just the 40 best days they would have reduced their average annual rate of return by half.  Over the last 40+ years the 10 best performing days for the S&P 500 happened within 1 week of 8 of the 10 worst performing days. Markets are efficient over the long term but over the very short term they can be irrational. Even if you are consistently saving and following a well thought-out plan over several years by trying to be out of the market for the worst days you will very likely impact your long term performance negatively in a very significant way.

In another study, the total returns generated in equities over a 20 year period were achieved in the best 35 days which is less than 1% of the 5,000 trading days over the period. When fear takes over our natural response is to reduce risk and go to cash, but since nobody can time the market and most of the returns over the long term are generated from a small percentage of days, it’s so important (during times like we are having now) to not let yourself fall for this wealth destroying trap. When markets come under pressure and you are tempted to sit in cash and wait for better days remind yourself that time in the market will make a much bigger impact on your wealth over the long term than trying to time the market

With inflation constantly eroding our purchasing power over time holding a significant portion of your assets in cash and cash equivalents is one of the riskiest things you can do especially if you still have many years ahead of you. Over the last 50 years inflation is up by 8x but S&P 500 dividends are up 19x and the total return for the S&P 500 is up 40x. Owning productive assets such as growth ETFs and real estate investment trusts is the only way to stay ahead of inflation and preserve your purchasing power over the long term.

What about those in retirement?

Recently some clients have asked whether they should lower their allocation to growth assets (equity ETFs) because they’re getting older and plan to retire soon. These clients are concerned about preserving wealth and because financial markets have recently been challenging they feel it’s the right thing to do. Even those in their 70’s and 80’s should still view themselves as having long term investment horizons because they may live well into their 90’s and if they want to maximize the purchasing power of what they leave behind for the benefit of loved ones and/or charitable giving then their time horizons should be thought of as several more decades. So, maintaining a healthy allocation to growth assets is important.

Another concern I am asked about is how long will it take for markets to recover. While nobody knows for sure history tells us that there is a good probability they will recover sooner than many expect. During the second half of September the US equity market was down for 6 consecutive days. Since 1950 this has happened 20 other times and in the following year after each of those times the market was higher 90% of the time and up an average of 20%.  During the same 70+ year period, US equity markets have experienced two or more consecutive down years only twice: 1973-1974 and 2000-2002.  So while 2022 will likely end as a negative year there is a very good probability that we will start recovering in the year ahead.

Investing is best done as a long term pursuit which will inevitably have ups and downs. As Garth says, so long as you are invested in a balanced and globally diversified portfolio there will be times to feel good about your portfolio and there will be times like we are having lately to ignore it. When you see headlines about stocks plunging and investors panicking you will be better off to stop paying attention to the financial media and focus on things you can control like your savings rate and overall asset allocation. By staying the course, remaining patient and consistently adding to your portfolio you will be positioned for multiple outcomes, not just one, so you will significantly increase the chances of reaching your long term financial goals.

Sinan Terzioglu, CFA, CIM, is a financial advisor with Turner Investments, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.  He served as vice-president of RBC Capital markets in New York City and VP with Credit Suisse in Toronto.

 

127 comments ↓

#1 Faron on 10.13.22 at 1:52 pm

#142 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 1:24 pm

My buddy’s had his place for sale for a couple of months

Needs moar retaining wall! And solar panels greenwashing a 5000sq ft monstrosity? WTF? Probably pump out enough juice to recirculate the water feature. Hard evidence that wealth does not confer taste.

Lemme guess, your buddy is not an architect?

#2 bdwy on 10.13.22 at 2:12 pm

shorting sp from 3667.

had to do it. this pop is out of gas.

Flipping around on daily/hourly fluctuations is moronic. Gambling, not investing. Spare us. – Garth

#3 Highlander on 10.13.22 at 2:20 pm

Thank you for this great information!

#4 an investor on 10.13.22 at 2:21 pm

What a load of nonsense. You never addressed the issue of clients who depend on investment income to live.

And I don’t recall any previous “elected” leaders who were trying to crash the economy … these are not normal times.

#5 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 2:23 pm

Thanks Sinan, good post!

For the Sail Away dynasty, while my personal investing timeline ends about 40 years from today, the next generations will easily extend that much longer. Let’s say 100 years to be conservative. So those assets are all safely socked away in a trust, invested in index, and regularly enhanced at auspicious times, like now.

There should be no need for my wife or me to ever touch these, with our modest needs and multiple pension/retirement/registered accounts in two countries, so it just sits and ferments and expands and expands…

One can self-inflict pain or stability. It all revolves around choices, as with most things in life.

#6 epic bear on 10.13.22 at 2:32 pm

cherry picking data …

if you missed the “best” days.

what if you missed the “worst” days. you don’t have a study for that?

#7 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 2:37 pm

#1 Faron on 10.13.22 at 1:52 pm
#142 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 1:24 pm

My buddy’s had his place for sale for a couple of months

——–

Needs moar retaining wall! And solar panels greenwashing a 5000sq ft monstrosity? WTF? Probably pump out enough juice to recirculate the water feature. Hard evidence that wealth does not confer taste.

Lemme guess, your buddy is not an architect?

——–

No need to get nasty. When money’s no object, sometimes one indulges their whims for fun.

You should try it. Maybe buy a new pair of slippers without even looking at the price tag or blow $67 by treating the table to a round?

#8 Søren Angst on 10.13.22 at 2:40 pm

Looked at the bad US CPI and good US Unemployment news and Tweeted Mr. Market will annihilate my Threadbare Portfolio today.

Later in the day, for me, went to Google Finance and began to CHEER.

One thing for sure, US Fed will go ahead with their rate increases this year.

Post Covid:

Expect the Unexpected.

—————

The only explanation I have come up with for Mr. Market’s Possession today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_zoZ8EAu5o

US MSM as clueless as me as to WTF happened today.

Happy as can be … well, for today. Tomorrow who knows?

#9 One percenter on 10.13.22 at 2:46 pm

DELETED

#10 Yukon Elvis on 10.13.22 at 2:53 pm

#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.13.22 at 10:39
———————————-
I grew up without Teevee and bought my first small black and white when I was about 26.
And yes, it had bunny ears.
+++++++++++++++++++
Do you still wear them around the house ?

#11 I’m stupid on 10.13.22 at 2:55 pm

I never understood why equities declined in inflationary periods. I get that debt financing increases, wages increase, raw materials increase but all those costs are passed on by higher prices. Higher prices should mean higher profits which should increase value. Can all this be attributed to consumer spending in inflationary periods?

Does anyone have any thoughts on this?

#12 baloney Sandwitch on 10.13.22 at 3:05 pm

Today looks like those 1% days. Looks like the real big boys of wall street have returned from their extended summer in the Hamptons and coolly surveyed the carnage wrecked by the little boy and girls and said, enough, its now too cheap – now buy, buy.

#13 Old Boot on 10.13.22 at 3:07 pm

#7 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 2:37 pm

#1 Faron on 10.13.22 at 1:52 pm
#142 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 1:24 pm

My buddy’s had his place for sale for a couple of months

——–

Needs moar retaining wall! And solar panels greenwashing a 5000sq ft monstrosity? WTF? Probably pump out enough juice to recirculate the water feature. Hard evidence that wealth does not confer taste.

Lemme guess, your buddy is not an architect?

——–

No need to get nasty. When money’s no object, sometimes one indulges their whims for fun.

You should try it. Maybe buy a new pair of slippers without even looking at the price tag or blow $67 by treating the table to a round?

**********

Single serving of fine aged single malt = $67

Enjoying a glass of fine aged single malt, whilst directing spittle-flecked diatribes at 4 empty chairs = priceless

#14 Faron on 10.13.22 at 3:10 pm

#7 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 2:37 pm
#1 Faron on 10.13.22 at 1:52 pm
#142 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 1:24 pm

Whenever I see a house like that (tasteless, overbuilt design with lots of man-toy spaces, but hey the wife got to pick out the xeriscaping) I instantly recognize tax evasion at work. Buddy is either an engineer or a contractor and probably shell-gamed the construction to write off as much as possible as a “business expense” for himself, his buddies and etc.

Compare that to Garth’s recent preservation of a gorgeous family heritage home and… yuck.

#15 PBrasseur on 10.13.22 at 3:12 pm

Funny, same front page that was shown around in 2009. Point still valid though.

But it won’t save the massive herd who actually doesn’t own stocks.

RE is where most have the greatest portion of their assets and it is going to crash.

Beginning with the bubbliest city on heart:

https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/2022/global-real-estate-bubble-index.html

#16 Neo on 10.13.22 at 3:17 pm

Plunge Protection Team deployed today. No other explanation

#17 Dogman01 on 10.13.22 at 3:19 pm

I have heard the term “Comfort Chips” before.

My neighbor was unloading Yellow bags of chips from Superstore this morning….”Inflation Chips” she exclaimed, a buck a bag when you buy three!

A Pivot, someone mentioned the other day. – “Let’s get serious about energy, economy, climate: Freeland”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-putin-us-1.6613523

Canada’s – Military chief warns China and Russia are ‘at war with the West’
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/military-chief-warns-china-and-russia-are-at-war-with-the-west

Putin and Russia, the current “big-bad” but the PRC, China is the real 1000lbs Gorilla “big-bad”, a more subtle adversary.

The last decade destroying our domestic O&G…opps!, looks like that was a big strategic mistake. The last 30 years offshoring industrial know-how and capacity to China, opps another big strategic mistake.

How come we tolerate a Globalist Ruling Class that sells out our interests at each opportunity, makes the most enormous miscalculations and serve only themselves.
If this “Brain-trust” continue their record of massive strategic mistakes we may actually get a nuclear war.

“So, let’s remember. There are those among us who, in serving themselves, serve no one.” – Garth Turner

#18 Sinan Terzioglu on 10.13.22 at 3:19 pm

#4 an investor – Clients that depend on investment income to live will continue to collect their dividends and interest from balanced and diversified portfolios even in challenging markets. Dividends rise over time and will very likely continue to rise even during challenging economic conditions.

#19 Sinan Terzioglu on 10.13.22 at 3:21 pm

#6 epic bear – If you miss the very worst days your performance would certainly be higher but you are delusional if you think anyone can do that

#20 Karl Belanger on 10.13.22 at 3:28 pm

Great post. Thank you.

#21 Ustabe on 10.13.22 at 3:28 pm

https://www.remax.ca/luxury/bc/nanaimo-real-estate/3410-arrowsmith-rd-wp_idm00000051-911938-lst

What a soulless mash up of all that is wrong with HGTV, Home Depot and Too Much Money.

5,000 square feet of blank, white walls. The only “art” I saw was the horses, not matted and framed, mind, but propped up above the fireplace where it can get sooty.

Perhaps, Sail Away, him being a friend and all you could loan him some of your art so they could re-do the photos?

Take a long look at the flooring…I think that is the Home Depot branded laminate called Giraffe Scrotum.

Sad.

#22 chalkie on 10.13.22 at 3:29 pm

Thank you, Sinan, you are so correct.
Long-term investments almost always outperform the market when investors try and time their holdings.

Emotion trading will hamper investor returns. The S&P 500 posted positive returns for investors over most 20-year time periods. Riding out temporary market downswings is considered a sign of a good investor.

Investing is a long game. Whether you want to invest for retirement or grow your savings, when you put money to work in markets it’s best to set it and forget it. But successful long-term investing isn’t as simple as just throwing money at the stock market.

Here are a few tips that has worked long term: Pick a Strategy and Stick with It, Get Your Finances in Order, understand your risk, Diversify Well for Successful Long-Term Investing, understand management fees, Review Your Strategy Regularly and Know Your Time Horizon before you put your first dollar to work.

Never get the jitter bugs and pull your money, you will surely loose out on a lot of upswings. No one known to man has ever been successful to time the markets, anyone tells you that they did or can, it was either pure luck or they are lying to you, its cant be done.

Quote of the day: Every time you borrow money, you’re robbing your future self

#23 Faron on 10.13.22 at 3:35 pm

#22 Ustabe on 10.13.22 at 3:28 pm
https://www.remax.ca/luxury/bc/nanaimo-real-estate/3410-arrowsmith-rd-wp_idm00000051-911938-lst

What a soulless mash up of all that is wrong with HGTV, Home Depot and Too Much Money.

5,000 square feet of blank, white walls. The only “art” I saw was the horses, not matted and framed, mind, but propped up above the fireplace where it can get sooty.

Perhaps, Sail Away, him being a friend and all you could loan him some of your art so they could re-do the photos?

Take a long look at the flooring…I think that is the Home Depot branded laminate called Giraffe Scrotum.

Sad

Ba ha ha haaaa. Hilarious. Almost bad enough to land here:

https://mcmansionhell.com/

Also funny that it was an insecure Sail Away attempt to show how rich his friends are.

#24 Covid Variant Math on 10.13.22 at 3:40 pm

DELETED

#25 Linda on 10.13.22 at 3:44 pm

Excellent post Sinan. If those who are panicking can manage to take it in, it may prevent them from making mistakes that will impact their finances long term. While it is difficult to see drops in one’s portfolio, unless one truly needs immediate access to those funds doing nothing is likely the best action to take. At most, reviewing one’s holdings & seeing whether they need to be rebalanced in order to minimize the impact of ongoing market fluctuations. For instance, when I looked at the market numbers this morning I wondered whether the TSX would drop below 18,000 today. This afternoon, it is up about 2%. Not the reaction I was thinking might occur given inflation news. Seems like the market likes knowing there will another increase to the Fed rate. Will be interesting to see what Canada’s numbers will be next week.

#26 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 3:50 pm

#13 Old Boot on 10.13.22 at 3:07 pm

Enjoying a glass of fine aged single malt, whilst directing spittle-flecked diatribes at 4 empty chairs = priceless

——–

Haha.

It appears our two resident misanthropes are practicing synchronized spitting at some random real estate.

It takes all kinds, God love ’em.

#27 Old Boot on 10.13.22 at 3:52 pm

I’d sum up today’s blog and comments on both portfolio performance and real estate by saying:

“If you don’t like the way it looks, stop looking at it.”

#28 Broader Mind on 10.13.22 at 3:54 pm

Did the fed enter /save the equities market today?

#29 Caffeine Monkey on 10.13.22 at 3:55 pm

The market had a big rally today! We’re all genius investors again – huzzah!

#30 Dogman01 on 10.13.22 at 3:56 pm

As each generation passes our standard of living declines.

Affordability crisis: Why young Canadians are facing a ‘huge’ wealth gap
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/affordability-crisis-why-young-canadians-are-facing-a-huge-wealth-gap-1.6106343

1982, My father single household wage earner supported a family of five. Father, Mother, 3 Kids, and Dog. Pretty common in my working class neighborhood. One Car, 2000 Sq Ft Home.

My Wife’s Father (good catholic) 15 years older than my dad, well he had six kids and Mom was stay at home her entire life. Nice Dogs and 2 Vehicles.

“1960 Dad worked, Mom stayed home, 5 Kids, no debt
1970 Dad worked, Mom worked part time, 4 Kids, no debt
1980 Dad worked, Mom worked full time , 3 Kids, a little debt
1990 Dad worked, Mom worked full time , 2 Kids, more debt
2000 Dad works 2 jobs, Mom worked full time , 1 Kid, tons of debt
2010 Dad works 2 jobs, Mom works 2 jobs, No Kids, absolutely broke and in debt.
Today why is it that with our great educational system, and with all the kids with degrees why can’t they see they have been shafted?”- Smoking Man

Why is it that workers\voters tolerate this trendline?

#31 Habitt on 10.13.22 at 3:59 pm

merci Mr Sinan. You tell it like you see it. A a smuck like myself can even follow. Ignore the unkind here.

#32 IHCTD9 on 10.13.22 at 4:15 pm

https://www.remax.ca/luxury/bc/nanaimo-real-estate/3410-arrowsmith-rd-wp_idm00000051-911938-lst
______

This house actually has a lot of bang for the buck. Google up Nanaimo MLS and do a search to see what 1-1.2 Mill gets you. Then ask if this Arrowsmith Rd residence is 3X the house.

Is it? Hell no – it’s 10X the house for only 3X the price.

#33 Faron on 10.13.22 at 4:37 pm

#28 Old Boot on 10.13.22 at 3:52 pm

“If you don’t like the way it looks, stop looking at it.”

Sounds like something you’ve overheard mumered in the background more than a few times.

#34 Faron on 10.13.22 at 4:38 pm

#32 IHCTD9 on 10.13.22 at 4:15 pm
https://www.remax.ca/luxury/bc/nanaimo-real-estate/3410-arrowsmith-rd-wp_idm00000051-911938-lst
______

10X the house

Not sure how you do things in Upper Canada, but around here homes are not valued by weight.

#35 the Jaguar on 10.13.22 at 4:40 pm

“…….globally diversified portfolio …”.

That’s the ticket, alright. How different areas of the ‘globe’ will perform is the more difficult puzzle.

#36 Old Boot on 10.13.22 at 4:42 pm

#33 IHCTD9 on 10.13.22 at 4:15 pm

https://www.remax.ca/luxury/bc/nanaimo-real-estate/3410-arrowsmith-rd-wp_idm00000051-911938-lst
______

This house actually has a lot of bang for the buck. Google up Nanaimo MLS and do a search to see what 1-1.2 Mill gets you. Then ask if this Arrowsmith Rd residence is 3X the house.

Is it? Hell no – it’s 10X the house for only 3X the price.

********

Plus 5 acres of land in an area where wealthy people want to live, and where dystopian street disorder is unlikely to come knocking.

Living in a low-crime neighbourhood is the new wealthy. That, and being able to swim naked in your own infinity pool.

#37 powder_hound86 on 10.13.22 at 4:43 pm

its insane you could invest 10k in 1971 and its worth million today. I highly doubt we will see such exceptional returns in the next 40 year period.

hoping to be proven wrong though!

#38 Gr on 10.13.22 at 5:13 pm

Thanks Sinan for the reminder about the numbers.
I’m assuming things will improve eventually and we will still need money to live on, and buy food for our families.

War is bad all round. If it escalates to nuclear were your money is won’t mater anyway so I’m staying invested. All weapon manufactures, military industrial complex, seem to make out like bandits at the cost of human lives. I don’t see that as being a good thing for humanity BTW.

Why aren’t the sides at least trying to learn quickly what the three parts that are involved in the term communicating actually involves, and try and stop all human beings from being murdered with these weapons and try making piece???

Are ‘they’ actually all insane including the MSM. You got to wonder at least for a second if ‘they’ are or your not paying attention at all IMO.

At least there are some that seem to try and cover more than just two minute news sound bits like
Redacted .inc on YT. And that x22report.com on other platforms has an alternative take on world events than the MSM. Can I even mention rebel news, that AJ guy, RT.com, and others, have a different perspective than the MSM, maybe not.
But as some would say, what do I know, nothing really.

Still hoping and planning for the world to not blow it’s self up this go round, again. And knowing we’ll all still need money to live for many more years to come in that case. Worrying more than a bit about things outside of my control is just causing unneeded stresses and no one needs more stress after all.

Life is hard enough at times as it is. Also good to remember life is good some of the time too.

Aren’t we all here to live life as best as we can while we are here after all. Hopefully helping your neighbor and fellow man/women out at least from time to time if we can, hopefully. Of course there are a few that act more like parasites that you need to guard against too, unfortunately.

#39 IHCTD9 on 10.13.22 at 5:22 pm

#36 Old Boot on 10.13.22 at 4:42 pm
#33 IHCTD9 on 10.13.22 at 4:15 pm

https://www.remax.ca/luxury/bc/nanaimo-real-estate/3410-arrowsmith-rd-wp_idm00000051-911938-lst
______

This house actually has a lot of bang for the buck. Google up Nanaimo MLS and do a search to see what 1-1.2 Mill gets you. Then ask if this Arrowsmith Rd residence is 3X the house.

Is it? Hell no – it’s 10X the house for only 3X the price.

********

Plus 5 acres of land in an area where wealthy people want to live, and where dystopian street disorder is unlikely to come knocking.

Living in a low-crime neighbourhood is the new wealthy. That, and being able to swim naked in your own infinity pool.
———-

Good point – especially the way things are going in BC. Buying this place for 3.2 over what 1.2 gets you is a no brainer. The trick is having the $ to finance it, the maintenance, taxes, and insurance. That keeps 95%+ of buyers out of the running, and likely why there is so much more value in this place compared to the 1.2 suburban bungs on postage stamp lots many more hopefuls can reach for. Way smaller pool of buyers.

It’s a sweet crib, and I’d bet there’s way more into it than the asking price.

#40 What Fear? on 10.13.22 at 5:26 pm

Not much fear in the markets if the Dow rises +6% (from the day’s low) on the slightest hope that the Fed will pivot.

While surveys show investors “say” they are bearish, most are still majority positioned in equities, thus not actually positioned as they talk.

#41 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 5:35 pm

Speaking of self-inflicted, two buddies and I are kicking around attempting the Fan Dance SAS qualifier in Wales (one buddy is a multiple Ironman finisher, the other a former Army team biathlete and diehard road biker):

24km/1200m elevation gain in 4 hours with a 35lb pack.

https://mpora.com/hiking-and-trail-running/the-fan-dance-a-run-through-a-slice-of-british-military-history/

Without the pack, sure. With a 20-lb pack, probably. 35-lb? Hmmm… it is very hard to say. The course is similar in length and elevation to Sayward’s Kusam Klimb which would be good training ground.

#42 SCD on 10.13.22 at 5:43 pm

Thank you for your detailed and helpful post!

#43 Adam on 10.13.22 at 5:51 pm

75 bps hike is guaranteed in 2 weeks by BoC. Then another 75 bps hike before end of the year. BoC cannot afford to not keep up with the US. In fact, BoC should probably do a full 100 bps hike and get ahead of the US but it won’t. The CDN dollar is already in trouble. If BoC only does a 50 bps hike then the loonie is headed to 1.5. Hold onto your hats everyone, 5 year fixed rate mortgages could be approaching 7% by early 2023.

#44 Old Boot on 10.13.22 at 5:55 pm

#41 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 5:35 pm

Speaking of self-inflicted, two buddies and I are kicking around attempting the Fan Dance SAS qualifier in Wales (one buddy is a multiple Ironman finisher, the other a former Army team biathlete and diehard road biker):

24km/1200m elevation gain in 4 hours with a 35lb pack.

https://mpora.com/hiking-and-trail-running/the-fan-dance-a-run-through-a-slice-of-british-military-history/

Without the pack, sure. With a 20-lb pack, probably. 35-lb? Hmmm… it is very hard to say. The course is similar in length and elevation to Sayward’s Kusam Klimb which would be good training ground.

*************

Looking forward to a surge in reported sightings of “men in tiny shorts with refrigerators strapped to their backs” emanating from Sayward.

Of course, those SAS daisies don’t have to dodge bears and cougars in Wales.

#45 Wrk.dover on 10.13.22 at 5:56 pm

#139 IHCTD9 on 10.13.22 at 12:30 pm

Some day, I’d like to hear the *real* story why you quit working at 35 while totally broke. Because that definitely ain’t any kind of retirement plan I ever heard of.
___________________________________

Living in a van all over USA for five months, puts all kinds of new ways to see life and how to live it, in the head.

Try it. You need it! Same bed since forever has got to you.

#46 IHCTD9 on 10.13.22 at 5:56 pm

#37 powder_hound86 on 10.13.22 at 4:43 pm
its insane you could invest 10k in 1971 and its worth million today. I highly doubt we will see such exceptional returns in the next 40 year period.

hoping to be proven wrong though!
———-

I’d bet good money you will be wrong. Everything is moving exponentially faster than it did 40 years ago, and this pace will continue to increase. Technology is racing forward, globalization is cutting costs, a much larger portion of our human capital is dedicated to Science and Technology than ever in history, international cooperation on major science projects is already commonplace.

The future will be exciting, as long as we don’t self destruct.

#47 dave on 10.13.22 at 6:12 pm

Is Inflation going to rise significantly more with OPEC+ reducing production Big Time in November?

OPEC+ can then choose to further reduce production for Geopolitical reasons

#48 Left GTA on 10.13.22 at 6:13 pm

@ #30 Dogman:

“1960 Dad worked, Mom stayed home, 5 Kids, no debt

Small bungalow, 1 car, food from garden, neighbor’s sat each others kids, day trips to zoo

1970 Dad worked, Mom worked part time, 4 Kids, no debt

small bungalow, 1 commuter car, 1 clunker car, latch key kids, home cooked meals, weekend at grandmas cottage

1980 Dad worked, Mom worked full time , 3 Kids, a little debt

Small 2 story, 2 commuter cars, microwave meals, after school clubs, trips to disney

1990 Dad worked, Mom worked full time , 2 Kids, more debt

Larger 2 story home, 1 fancy car, 1 commuter car, new hardwood floors, drive thru restaurants, tonnes of after school programs, several family vacations

2000 Dad works 2 jobs, Mom worked full time , 1 Kid, tons of debt

large 2 story home, 2 nice cars, a cottage by the lake, a boat, take out food and trips to europe and skiing, after school activities and in home tutors

2010 Dad works 2 jobs, Mom works 2 jobs, No Kids, absolutely broke and in debt.

lots of lorazepam, large 2 story with finished basement and man cave, 2 nice suv’s, granite countertops, imported bathroom fixtures, organic food ordered in, a big cottage on the lake, iphones, ipads, laptops, xbox, trips around the world

People just want more…

#49 Left GTA on 10.13.22 at 6:14 pm

Why when stock prices go down do dividends increase?

#50 the Jaguar on 10.13.22 at 6:34 pm

#44 Old Boot on 10.13.22 at 5:55 pm
#41 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 5:35 pm
Speaking of self-inflicted, two buddies and I are kicking around attempting the Fan Dance SAS qualifier in Wales (one buddy is a multiple Ironman finisher, the other a former Army team biathlete and diehard road biker):
24km/1200m elevation gain in 4 hours with a 35lb pack.
https://mpora.com/hiking-and-trail-running/the-fan-dance-a-run-through-a-slice-of-british-military-history/
Without the pack, sure. With a 20-lb pack, probably. 35-lb? Hmmm… it is very hard to say. The course is similar in length and elevation to Sayward’s Kusam Klimb which would be good training ground.
*************

Looking forward to a surge in reported sightings of “men in tiny shorts with refrigerators strapped to their backs” emanating from Sayward.
Of course, those SAS daisies don’t have to dodge bears and cougars in Wales.+++++++

Delightful! Bring on the men in tiny shorts! They’re so damn arresting. I am so enjoying the new alliances being formed on this financial/real estate blog. A worthy adversary to keep the misguided woke in line, with an appreciation of Sailo’s humourous masculine charm. Christmas is arriving early this year…

#51 Dogman01 on 10.13.22 at 6:55 pm

#48 Left GTA on 10.13.22 at 6:13 pm

You Sir (or Ma’am) …have a good point, and funny to boot!

And for Sinan:

“The market always recovers. Always. And, if someday it really doesn’t no investment will be safe and none of this financial stuff will matter anyway.” – The Simple Path to Wealth by JL Collins

#52 Sinan Terzioglu on 10.13.22 at 6:57 pm

#49 Left GTA – Dividends rise most years even when stock markets decline. There are several companies with long histories of increasing dividends every year throughout economic cycles. By holding diversified ETFs you will hold companies such as the Canadian banks which have been paying dividends every single year since the 1800’s.

#53 Ed on 10.13.22 at 7:04 pm

Saw an interesting analysis of the “best days” a while ago, and a large proportion of them were dead cat bounces in the market as it declined into a bear market, so they didn’t really contribute to long term returns since they were quickly erased by further declines.

Today’s bounce explained by options activity.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-stocks-surge-in-wild-ride-after-cpi-data-selloff-1.1831703

#54 Left GTA on 10.13.22 at 7:34 pm

@#52 Sinan. Ah ok. I hold ZWB, ZPR and Enbridge stock in non reg acct. I think that is ok I know ZPR holds the others lol but the dividends are higher so.. I just keep fingers crossed. For the most part thou I follow Garths suggested bal portfolio.

#55 Left GTA on 10.13.22 at 7:36 pm

@ 51 Dogman I am a nutty lady!

#56 DON on 10.13.22 at 7:37 pm

#47 dave on 10.13.22 at 6:12 pm
Is Inflation going to rise significantly more with OPEC+ reducing production Big Time in November?

OPEC+ can then choose to further reduce production for Geopolitical reasons

***********
That looks seemingly possible. Unless Venezuela comes to the aid.

Econonmic warfare. I am also wondering about the end game strategy behind China’s current covid lock down? A reset of sorts?…pumping billions into save the housing has not worked, but no mass protests since the Spring? Things that make you go hmmm.

#57 Deshana on 10.13.22 at 7:52 pm

So your saying you have to put your money in the stock market some at least. I know alot of people who sold their properties and businesses and had large TFSA’s, RRSP’s built up for many years and did not have equity or other market exposure anymore. It may seem boring and simple but 50% in bonds, 50% in GICs for your investment money and having 5 years in liquid cash from savings accounts to cashable, redeemable GICs staggered is what works for many people I know. Income spitting and taking full use of tax credits, tax deductions, tax shelters is really key. Do what you think is right for yourselves.

#58 Flop… on 10.13.22 at 8:00 pm

#143 IHCTD9 on 10.13.22 at 1:27 pm
Here you go Flop:
https://fairsquare.ca/on/sudbury-northbay-ss-marie-thunder-bay/terrace-bay/home-for-sale/hab-41-southridge-cres-d24951502#description

Hey Trackie, yeah I wasn’t really worried about the structure on the other one I showed you, I was more focused on easy access to the water, with maybe a glorified garden shed to store all the toys in and make a cuppa, the water in the lakes over there is just the right temperature in the summer.

I’m not too sure how much gas I’m going to have left in the tank after another 15 years of working and hopefully travelling, but in the back of my mind has just not to over complicate things and just keep it rudimentary.

Buy 5 acres of wooded land with a creek or river running through it, buy a banged up 35 ft motorhome that only works in reverse.

In the summer, back it up to the River and camp there, maybe an old 4×4 to do day trips in.

Leave it there over the winter, if there is a flood and the RV gets washed away, its highly likely I would have to come up with a new plan…

M48BC

https://www.kootenaysold.com/listing/pcl-a-highway-31-poplar-creek-british-columbia-v0g-1n0-24719557/

#59 "NUTS!" on 10.13.22 at 8:04 pm

#48 Left GTA
This is precisely the issue I have with all the hate on Boomers (I’m not a boomer) who apparently took all the good stuff and left the current generations with nothing. Look at what the Boomers grew up with compared to subsequent gens. Imaging telling these gens to “just go back to the expectations of the 60s”. You’d have a revolt. We truly have lost our way.

#60 Left GTA on 10.13.22 at 8:33 pm

@ #59 NUTS We truly have!!! It’s neat when I see a 1960’s side split listed and its immaculate with all original tiles, kitchen, bathrooms and fruit trees in the backyard.
Life is not what it used to be. I am a gen x. Grew up with hand me down clothes I was thrilled to have. Had savings with a dream to buy a black n white tv only to have to hand it over to Dad because the car broke down during a camping trip. Got the tv a year later thou and was happy for it.

#61 Sinan Terzioglu on 10.13.22 at 8:38 pm

#54 Left GTA – I don’t recommend covered call ETFs like ZWB (Covered Call Banks ETF) for most. ZWB has a high dividend yield but over time the total returns of many covered call ETFs have been lower than the total returns of the underlying securities held. Also, since the manager of the covered call ETF has to continually sell call options in order generate premiums to cover the dividend there will be times when the positions rally above the strike prices calls were sold at so the upside is capped. When positions get called away this forces a disposition in the ETF so covered call ETFs are not tax efficient when held in non-registered accounts.

#62 Old Boot on 10.13.22 at 8:44 pm

#50 the Jaguar on 10.13.22 at 6:34 pm

#44 Old Boot on 10.13.22 at 5:55 pm
#41 Sail Away on 10.13.22 at 5:35 pm
Speaking of self-inflicted, two buddies and I are kicking around attempting the Fan Dance SAS qualifier in Wales (one buddy is a multiple Ironman finisher, the other a former Army team biathlete and diehard road biker):
24km/1200m elevation gain in 4 hours with a 35lb pack.
https://mpora.com/hiking-and-trail-running/the-fan-dance-a-run-through-a-slice-of-british-military-history/
Without the pack, sure. With a 20-lb pack, probably. 35-lb? Hmmm… it is very hard to say. The course is similar in length and elevation to Sayward’s Kusam Klimb which would be good training ground.
*************

Looking forward to a surge in reported sightings of “men in tiny shorts with refrigerators strapped to their backs” emanating from Sayward.
Of course, those SAS daisies don’t have to dodge bears and cougars in Wales.+++++++

Delightful! Bring on the men in tiny shorts! They’re so damn arresting. I am so enjoying the new alliances being formed on this financial/real estate blog. A worthy adversary to keep the misguided woke in line, with an appreciation of Sailo’s humourous masculine charm. Christmas is arriving early this year…

**************

I get more of a Monty Python vibe from that particular image, but glad it tickles your … er, … funny bone.

What’s a lefty to do, when her political tribe ups sticks and de-camps for the wacky fringes? Find common ground with whoever is still loitering around the sensible centre lane, I guess.

Mockery is the only weapon left to the politically orphaned. We need more Monty Python and Ricky Gervais, and less woke orthodoxy.

#63 Flop… on 10.13.22 at 9:07 pm

Since we’re talking about ugly houses, let’s see my late entry from Flopville.

I suspect this creation is a result of a sexual encounter between a piece of 2 x 4 and a flamingo…

M48BC

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2730087/4493-FLEMING-STREET-Vancouver-BC/

#64 Ed on 10.13.22 at 9:12 pm

#6 epic bear – If you miss the very worst days your performance would certainly be higher but you are delusional if you think anyone can do that

//////////////////////////////////////

Naw its not hard….just never put money in the stock market…miss every bad day.

#65 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 10.13.22 at 9:19 pm

DELETED

#66 Ed on 10.13.22 at 9:29 pm

#6 epic bear – If you miss the very worst days your performance would certainly be higher but you are delusional if you think anyone can do that

//////////////////////////////////////

Naw its not hard….just never put money in the stock market…miss every bad day.

btw not sure who is #53 but he grabbed my name…I’ll share but filter out the silliest comments

#67 Summertime on 10.13.22 at 10:15 pm

We can have a similar discussion about real estate in in-demand areas. Why are you not promoting investing in real estate? And how are you different than a real estate agent? Looking in long term and ignoring volatility it looks pretty sound investment + it is tax free capital gains on principal residence, incentivized by government and banks.

Please provide chart of house prices appreciation and you will see similar picture.

You are either forgetting or intentionally not considering the following:

There have been extended periods of limited growth in stock markets aka ‘lost decades’ mostly after credit contractions.

We are at peak debt and credit contraction is a fact.

The consumer is getting poorer by the day with massive inflation and cost of living far outpacing the fake CPI and real wage growth.

How precisely do you see that improving in current economic conditions given severe resource constraints, current economic and political conditions and the policies to reduce consumption, what will precisely drive consumption:

1. Government sending? At peak debt?

2. Household spending? At peak debt and fast reduced real consumption?

3. inflation reducing the debt burden while keeping interest rates strongly negative?

While cash’s purchasing power is melting fast because of idiotic monetary policies, let’s not forget that the stock market shed 20-25 % from the highs this year alone in nominal terms.

Considering that CPI is 8-10 % with real inflation double you could well be looking at 30-35 % decline in purchasing power based on the value of your portfolio alone, while for example rents have skyrocketed by 20-25 % in the big cities.

And when you are in such situation, what will drive spending and consumption in order to generate even nominal ‘growth’?

My thesis is that we were at a peak real consumption quite some time ago 8-10, maybe even 15 years, that consumption is constantly deteriorating ever since, with excessive credit and money creation masking that fact. And we have now reached the limit of that ‘tool’ with the raging inflation and strongly negative real rates that we enjoy currently.

You are also not factoring the impact of globalization on past growth.

We could well be in a post-tulip mania speculative boom in all assets, except maybe commodities but if we are to really fight inflation with real positive interest rates, their prices will suffer as well.

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.13.22 at 10:52 pm

@ Sinan
“Keep calm and Balance on…”

@#128 wrk.dvr
“Cheap rural living, ocean in the front, wilderness in the back. Do it yourself is the key necessary element.”
+++
I cant argue with that.

@# 133 Sailio

Good one.

Just got home from Van Island today.
The 4pm sailing took a detour.
Seems the BC Ferry was having engine issues and sailing through Active Pass was to hard for the single engine.
So they sailed south of the typical route.
We were south of the Gulf Islands and followed the international border like a laser.
An interesting trip.
One thing I did notice was.
The US Gulf islands have very few cottages or houses on the waterfront ( or anywhere else visible from the water)
While the Canadian Gulf Islands ( Pender, Mayne, Saturna ) all had lots of cottages and mansions .

A very very rare southern route trip.
It was awesome.
I asked one of the crew how often they did it and he said he’s been working for BC Ferries for 12 years and it was the first time he had ever seen it.
Sunny, warm, Flat calm and almost no wind.
An extra 10 minutes of sailing.

#69 Tim on 10.13.22 at 11:12 pm

#66 Ed

Love these comments from all you greedy degenerates. You can’t keep rates at 0 and expect chaos for years to come. History will repeat once again. Sad state of the world. All you living in gluttony will pay up soon.

#70 martin on 10.13.22 at 11:12 pm

Sure thing markets will recover.But go and tell how long it will take to an eight years old guy. Perhaps he wont see the recovery

#71 Tom from Mississauga on 10.13.22 at 11:50 pm

Sinan, post is well timed to today‘s completely unforeseen rally. Great reminder to stay engaged.
This bear market will go little longer, 3-5 years as we have to rebuild the industrial base out of China and into Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico and the US. Not a Biden fan but agree with semiconductor policy, it will help speed up the process.

#72 DOWn on 10.14.22 at 12:27 am

It’s different this time.
Someone had to say it.
Going to get very interesting starting next week.
Rock Lobster.

#73 MalcolmM on 10.14.22 at 1:12 am

You forgot to mention one important factor that occurred after 1979 that was responsible for the long subsequent bull market. Paul Volcker, federal reserve chair hiked interest rates into the high teens.

So the comparison to 1979 is meaningless unless you are suggesting the federal reserve will be doing the same thing in the next few years.

#74 Meh on 10.14.22 at 1:18 am

#16 Neo on 10.13.22 at 3:17 pm
Plunge Protection Team deployed today. No other explanation.

—————————————-

For the umpteenth time, blatantly and without shame. Tightening their balance sheet and fighting inflation my rear end.

#28 Broader Mind on 10.13.22 at 3:54 pm
Did the fed enter /save the equities market today?

————————————-
1000%.

#75 Faron on 10.14.22 at 4:34 am

Hey Old Boot! Don’t let facts nor tribal acceptance get in the way of your ideologies.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/mary-ellen-turpel-lafond-1.6615953

On Wednesday evening, hours after CBC’s story was published, the Union of British Columbia Indian Chiefs (UBCIC) said in a statement Turpel-Lafond “has been a fierce, ethical, and groundbreaking advocate for Indigenous peoples for decades.”

and

The Saskatoon Tribal Council pointed out that Turpel-Lafond has been accepted as a member of the Muskeg Lake Cree Nation in Saskatchewan.

“Our kinship is defined by First Nations and not by the media or Canadian government,” the council said in a statement issued Thursday.

Oh, and I always find it interesting how the H2S stenched slime in a shallow duck pond kinda clusters together not unlike how you globbed onto your new “centrist” friends here so as to appear slightly less insane.

#76 Wrk.dover on 10.14.22 at 7:18 am

#48 Left GTA on 10.13.22 at 6:13 pm

“1960 Dad worked, Mom stayed home, 5 Kids, no debt

2010 Dad works 2 jobs, Mom works 2 jobs, No Kids, absolutely broke and in debt.

lots of lorazepam, large 2 story with finished basement and man cave, 2 nice suv’s, granite countertops, imported bathroom fixtures, organic food ordered in, a big cottage on the lake, iphones, ipads, laptops, xbox, trips around the world

People just want more…
________________________________

Finally, someone who gets it.

I dropped out of more more more 35yrs. ago with a house, land, tools and shops, paid for. Richer than 90% of humanity. Wife’s income more than ample, and she agreeable to plan.

I’m in your cult, Leader.

#77 I don't know on 10.14.22 at 7:29 am

Great post.

Yesterday’s rally was broad based, had high volume, and signalled many people are sniffing the bottom.

The “it’s going to keep falling” trade is getting mighty crowded, and as usual, smart people/institutions are buying.

Today’s post illustrates exactly what everyone already knows but some choose to ignore. Being invested for the best days make the best returns. Those sitting in junk (cash) out of fear, and addicted to social media doom and gloom always miss out. This time is no different. It never is.

IDK

#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.22 at 8:12 am

@10 Yukon Elvis
“I grew up without Teevee and bought my first small black and white when I was about 26.
And yes, it had bunny ears.
+++++++++++++++++++
Do you still wear them around the house ?
******

Ponzie’s not a Furzie.
He’s a “Furry”.
The next Furry convention is in Surrey where Ponzie lives.
Coincidence?.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi-6ar319_6AhVGAjQIHTSQATYQFnoECBoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fvancoufur.org%2F&usg=AOvVaw0oKxAtKilmkbiC9XhGDwJm

#79 Alberta on my mind on 10.14.22 at 8:18 am

Kwarteng out in UK, were still stuck with Karnak the Magnificent? Something’s really wrong with the world. Cash is King. Find yourself a sunny spot, stay there until the war between globalist flatulence and Fiscal responsibility shows us a winner. The fury by globalist leftist welfare state freedom hate parties against ” Growth Growth Growth” Truss is a vision of hell that waits for us if they win.

#80 Sail Away on 10.14.22 at 8:34 am

Centrists of the world declare Old Boot “has been a fierce, ethical, and groundbreaking advocate for tolerance for several blogs, although continually beset by extreme left wing fakey fake ‘science’ practitioners masquerading as legit.

and

The Canadian Council of Mental Stability declares that Old Boot has been accepted as an honorary member of the Kusam Klimb Centrists of BC.

“Our kinship is defined by shared values of tolerance, inclusion, and acceptance, and we stand with the Boot against unfair attacks by fakey fake flexible scientists.” the council said in a statement 0530 Friday morning.

#81 TurnerNation on 10.14.22 at 9:10 am

I love paying My Fair Share. It’s just peachy what we get.
Fact: In Summer 2020 you could hop on an airplane — no QR code, no mask, no arrival app — and fly most anywhere. You and the crew would be fine.

But it was ‘Too Dangerous’ to get cancer screening. As noted, in Q2 2020 every system designed to protect us was turned against us. We were to be SO healthy after now almost 3 years of government mandates, and The Rules. The Rules which Keep Us Safe.
Say how’s the ‘Hospital Capacity’ coming along?

.400,000 fewer mammograms during pandemic, more advanced cancer now seen: OMA (globalnews.ca)

.SickKids’ intensive care unit reached full capacity over the weekend as the hospital endured “much longer than normal” wait times in the emergency department. (c24.com)

.COVID-19 hospitalizations in Ontario reach five-month high as top health official warns of ‘complex and difficult winter’ (cp24.com)

#82 TurnerNation on 10.14.22 at 9:18 am

Amazing isn’t it, how much of the unbridled nonsense I spew here eventually comes to pass…

#18 TurnerNation on 08.23.22 at 4:00 pm
Comrade are you committing Klimate Krimes?

…todays turns into:

.The Competition Bureau is investigating RBC for alleged misleading marketing related to the bank’s action on climate change. The complaint was supported by a couple of environmental organizations — Vancouver-based law charity Ecojustice and environmental advocate Stand.earth. (investmentexecutive.com)

—-
—- As noted all the old culture must go Comrade. Our Colour Revolution (Red natch) kicked off March 2020

.Globe says Bauer joins Scotiabank in Hockey Cda rethink.
The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that Hockey Canada’s official equipment provider, Bauer Hockey, is pulling financial support for the men’s teams …Tim Hortons, Scotiabank and Nike have pulled sponsorship for men’s programs for the 2022-23 season. Canadian Tire and Sobeys are out entirely.
© 2022 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.22 at 9:32 am

Britain’s fourth Finance Minister … in four months.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/jeremy-hunt-appointed-uk-finance-minister-2022-10-14/

Sell your GBP’s.

#84 Dharma Bum on 10.14.22 at 9:40 am

What Sinan is saying to y’all, essentially, is:

HANG IN THERE, BABY!

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/61gEmAioCpL.jpg

#85 Dharma Bum on 10.14.22 at 10:07 am

#49 Left GTA

Why when stock prices go down do dividends increase?
—————————————————————————————————–

The dollar amount of the dividend stays the same.

The percentage of the yield increases because it is being measured off a lower mark.

If a stock is $100 and the dividend is $5, it is called a 5% dividend.

If that stock drops to $80, the dividend is still $5, but it is now called a 6.25% dividend.

Similar to bonds. When bond prices drop, the yields “rise”.
When yields “rise”, bond prices drop.

If the face value of a bond is $100, and it pays 5% interest, you get $5.

If interest rates rise, and now people can easily get, say, 7% interest anywhere else, the value of that $100 bond drops to about $71.30 – you still get $5 interest, but it represents a 7% yield.

#86 Russ on 10.14.22 at 10:07 am

Faron on 10.14.22 at 4:34 am

Oh, and I always find it interesting how the H2S stenched slime in a shallow duck pond kinda clusters together not unlike how you globbed onto your new “centrist” friends here so as to appear slightly less insane.
——————————-

Two questions for you.

Do you think of yourself as a troll?

Do you consider H2S a Green House Gas?

On the trolling issue, you purport to only respond to another’s comment directed to you, however my observation of your actions is that you often drop the trolling lure to a shallow depth.

Cheers, R

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.22 at 10:11 am

@ Faron.
“Don’t let facts nor tribal acceptance get in the way of your ideologies”

While the kids squabble over who’s the most politically correct.

Russia prepares a “Nuclear drill” next week.

The same week the US is doing its “NATO nuclear drill”

https://www.reuters.com/world/is-this-drill-upcoming-russian-nuclear-exercises-challenge-west-2022-10-13/

#88 IHCTD9 on 10.14.22 at 10:16 am

#58 Flop… on 10.13.22 at 8:00 pm
#143 IHCTD9 on 10.13.22 at 1:27 pm
Here you go Flop:
https://fairsquare.ca/on/sudbury-northbay-ss-marie-thunder-bay/terrace-bay/home-for-sale/hab-41-southridge-cres-d24951502#description

Hey Trackie, yeah I wasn’t really worried about the structure on the other one I showed you, I was more focused on easy access to the water, with maybe a glorified garden shed to store all the toys in and make a cuppa, the water in the lakes over there is just the right temperature in the summer.

I’m not too sure how much gas I’m going to have left in the tank after another 15 years of working and hopefully travelling, but in the back of my mind has just not to over complicate things and just keep it rudimentary.
______

That’s a good plan, I’ve been unloading my “collectibles” for a couple years now. Easy on the brain gets better the less you have to think about. Less clean up for the kids down the road too :)

#89 the Jaguar on 10.14.22 at 10:20 am

#80 Sail Away on 10.14.22 at 8:34 am -Centrists of the world declare Old Boot “has been a fierce, ethical, and groundbreaking advocate for tolerance for several blogs, although continually beset by extreme left wing fakey fake ‘science’ practitioners masquerading as legit. and:
The Canadian Council of Mental Stability declares that Old Boot has been accepted as an honorary member of the Kusam Klimb Centrists of BC.
“Our kinship is defined by shared values of tolerance, inclusion, and acceptance, and we stand with the Boot against unfair attacks by fakey fake flexible scientists.” the council said in a statement 0530 Friday morning.++++

I’m in full agreement with your Holiness…… But the upcoming ‘meltdown’ may set a new record. . Reminds me of this movie scene. The resemblance is uncanny..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aopdD9Cu-So

#90 IHCTD9 on 10.14.22 at 10:24 am

#45 Wrk.dover on 10.13.22 at 5:56 pm
#139 IHCTD9 on 10.13.22 at 12:30 pm

Some day, I’d like to hear the *real* story why you quit working at 35 while totally broke. Because that definitely ain’t any kind of retirement plan I ever heard of.
___________________________________

Living in a van all over USA for five months, puts all kinds of new ways to see life and how to live it, in the head.

Try it. You need it! Same bed since forever has got to you.
_____

While living in a Van does have some kind of morbid appeal, I still have dependents that I am responsible for quasi-in house. I think if I was going to live in a machine, it’d be a boat.

#91 Canadarm2 on 10.14.22 at 10:49 am

#37 powder_hound86 on 10.13.22 at 4:43 pm

As a couple;
Feb2002- total investments (RRSPs only)- approx 50k
Jan2022- (RRSPs and TFSAs)- just snuck over 1 mil
Contributed about $300k over them years. ROI is usually a bit more than equal and, in some cases, double.

Yes, 2022 is abysmal (so was 2008!) but compounding will now take care of the rest, so if the NEXT 20 yrs are like this, I’ll take it!! Besides, 2019-2021 were spectacular! So to the bloke who questioned about the “missing the good days”?…They just went by!

It CAN be done…just set it and forget it! Not even a client of Garth’s (sorry bud, no MSU but keep doing them good works! You are a Prince!), so there are good eggs out there!

M54ON

#92 Mattl on 10.14.22 at 10:53 am

I’m all about staying invested, very hard to time markets. I did rebalance earlier in the year and go to 15% cash that is getting deployed now.

That said these “missing the best days” analysis really feel like marketing speak. Does this analysis account for only missing the best days while being full invested during the worst? So this week for example, we will finish down. Thursday was big but Wed and today are stinkers. Missing Thursday is not a big deal if you also missed Wed, or frankly March forward. Anyone that moved to a larger cash position anticipating the fairly obvious impact rate hikes would have on markets hasn’t missed anything, assuming they don’t get greedy and redeploy that cash.

While I’m not a market timer there was a fairly obvious window early this to make a play.

#93 Old Boot on 10.14.22 at 10:54 am

#80 Sail Away on 10.14.22 at 8:34 am

Centrists of the world declare Old Boot “has been a fierce, ethical, and groundbreaking advocate for tolerance for several blogs, although continually beset by extreme left wing fakey fake ‘science’ practitioners masquerading as legit.

and

The Canadian Council of Mental Stability declares that Old Boot has been accepted as an honorary member of the Kusam Klimb Centrists of BC.

“Our kinship is defined by shared values of tolerance, inclusion, and acceptance, and we stand with the Boot against unfair attacks by fakey fake flexible scientists.” the council said in a statement 0530 Friday morning.

***********

You do me too much honour, kind sir.

Imagine being a heterodox female academic or researcher in this day and age:

Surrounded by dozens of self-righteous Faron clones, bombarded with rape and death threats for the crime of pointing out that mammalian sex is binary and immutable.

Hounded out of your job because you think harmful, pseudo religious beliefs shouldn’t be taught as fact to 6 year olds.

Luxury beliefs are the new middle class status symbol and because young, urban, uni-educated whites have been indoctrinated by schools to believe they bear the stain of Original Sin – cisheteronormative white privilege – the only path to salvation lies in either appropriating an oppressed identity (see: Mary-Ellen Turpel Lafond), or by being seen to vigorously enforce compliance within the current oppression stack.

Jaguar mentioned Dr Kathleen Stock, a UK academic and renegade lesbian who dared defy the Trannish Inquisition. Her example, amongst others, of what happens to women who won’t bend the knee should terrify us all.

Any unproven ideology that can’t be civilly debated because believers come unglued at the merest pushback, is a cult.

#94 Doug in London on 10.14.22 at 11:12 am

I’ll stick with my bore you to tears strategy of letting the dividends roll in and periodically scooping up more stocks and ETFs as they go on sale. I remember in early 2021, as we awaited our turn to get vaccinated, a lot of so called “investors” were scooping up overpriced assets like Bitcoin and Gamestop. Why didn’t they patiently wait until now to scoop up assets when they became cheaper as they have recently?

As for that article about the death of equities, at the time I was 18 years old and had no idea of what was going on with investing but did remember all that talk about inflation back them. Say, have you heard that new song Don’t Bring Me Down by ELO?

#95 Nonplused on 10.14.22 at 11:26 am

Last year I advised everyone to get a backup generator like this one:

https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/pdp/champion-3550-4450-watt-portable-generator-rv-ready-0550370p.html?loc=plp

It’s on sale right now for 40% off, which makes it $450. But what’s notable about that is that last year $450 was the regular price, and that was up $50 from the previous year. This was a $400 generator. Now, 2 years later, CT thinks it is an $800 generator.

And they say inflation is only ~8%. I think the same guy who does the unemployment numbers must do the inflation numbers. Just don’t count anyone who isn’t on UI, and don’t count anything that goes up in price when the dollar collapses 25%. Problem solved!

I did a stint in economic forecasting some years ago and learned an important lesson. If your analysis doesn’t agree with what the C-suite has been telling the shareholders, you get fired. So it’s best to review what the CEO has been saying to the media before you do your analysis. It saves a lot of time. I imagine it is the same in government.

Buy all the things. Especially if you can find it on sale for last year’s regular price. Next year it will be up again. And not by 8%.

—————————

A side note observed in past inflations: People think that inflation happens when people have too much money. But that isn’t born out by experience. Instead, it is quite common that despite the rise in prices, nobody has the money to buy anything. Too much money seems to kick off the inflation, same way low interest rates caused the housing bubble and CERB drove the price of used boats and motorcycles to new highs, but pulling back on the money supply doesn’t seem to stop it. Once the money devalues, it’s permanent. That’s why reactive monetary policy so dangerous. It can’t undo any damage that’s already been done. All it can do is slow further damage.

So remember, when the central bankers were telling us that inflation was “transitory”, they were correct, it’s just that you didn’t understand them. They meant “we are transitioning to higher prices across the board, except for wages”.

———————————–

I propose a new inflation, which we may as well call the “CT index”. CT, known for cheap Chinese imports, has long been a deflationary driver in the CPI. Where else could you get everything from camping equipment to generators to tools to kitchen utensils dirt cheap straight from China? But now even the cheapest of Chinese goods are rocketing up by 40% per year. Yikes!

——————————-

And it’s going to get worse. This winter we face war in Europe and a global energy supply problem. Nothing is more inflationary than war, followed by energy. So we face a 1-2 punch. I’d add socialism to the list but socialism is more or a collapse agent than an inflationary agent. Socialism only affect the countries in which it is found. War and energy can be global. But if we add socialism, we here in Canada face a 1-2-3 punch. We could hit the ground.

So anyway, if last year you went to CT and bought the CT index, you’d be up 40% this year. Nice. But so far as I can see, it is still time to buy all the things. Sure, maybe the central bankers will get inflation down to 2% once the war is over, but prices aren’t going to come back down. You won’t lose money.

#96 Old Boot on 10.14.22 at 11:48 am

#75 Faron on 10.14.22 at 4:34 am

Hey Old Boot! Don’t let facts nor tribal acceptance get in the way of your ideologies.
……

************

She is legitimately a member of the Muskeg Lake Cree Nation by marriage.

That doesn’t explain her 3 decade long claim that she is a status member of the Norway House Cree Nation, nor does it excuse her academic credential fraud.

Her statement when informed by CBC that her claims were going be examined, issued 7 months ago, relies on several tired tropes, ignorance, and outright lies.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22418442-metl-statement-to-cbc

She claims that her father had the “Indian disease”, diabetes. Her father, who the CBC determined was born in Victoria and not Norway House as she claims, had type I juvenile onset diabetes, not type II adult onset disease. Type I is not the “Indian disease”, and it doesn’t make white Europeans Indigenous.

Nor does alcoholism, domestic violence, or sexual abuse, all of which she has claimed to bolster her fake status.

She lied to Dalhousie to land her teaching job there based on her ‘status Indian’ lie.

She falsified the date she received her SJD by 7 years, and outright lied about earning an International Masters of Law from Cambridge. She still doesn’t have that qualification.

She had already offered her resignation from the UBC Truth and Reconciliation Commission last month, in anticipation of what she knew was coming. It will take effect next April. Her tenured Allard Law prof position should be next.

In closing:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/rich-educated-people-more-likely-to-lie-cheat-1.1242480

#97 Faron on 10.14.22 at 11:57 am

#86 Russ on 10.14.22 at 10:07 am
Faron on 10.14.22 at 4:34 am

drop the trolling lure to a shallow depth.

Yes, H2S in a GHG although emissions are local and the residence times short. On Vancouver Island, emissions seem to predominate in Nanaimo and Victoria’s boot factory.

Like any fisherperson, I’ll lower or raise the bait to wherever the fish go first.

#98 Faron on 10.14.22 at 12:07 pm

#89 the Jaguar on 10.14.22 at 10:20 am

Nah, the desperation with which Old Boot is expectorating her nonsense and how she has cloyingly glommed onto you and Sail Away so as not to seem insane tells me I have the upper hand. Happy to dance aside of the foamy-mouthed heifer as she stomps around her dusty, sunbaked pen. She’ll tire eventually.

#99 Faron on 10.14.22 at 12:16 pm

#93 Old Boot on 10.14.22 at 10:54 am

If you find yourself surrounded by people, or only “somehow” engaging with people, who can’t debate you civilly, then it’s highly likely they aren’t the problem. It’s doubtful that you have experienced the statistical aberration of only finding jerks on the opposite side of your ideology.

Similarly, when I meet people who kvetch about all the a-holes in their lives, then it’s natural to conclude that the complainer is the a-hole.

You claim to understand psychology… maybe projection is something for you to look into.

#100 Mattl on 10.14.22 at 12:23 pm

Faron not sure why you feel the need to defend that lady. She lied about being status Indian – she isn’t. She lied about here upbringing – she grew up in Niagra Falls. She lied about her father selling his status – records show this didn’t occur. And she lied about her academic creds – and has admitted such.

She also lied about being a member of Muskeg – nice to see them add her after the story broke.

And no one has made the claim that she hasn’t been a fierce advocate for Native rights so you can your strawman away for now.

You are a perfect example of the left eating itself. What exactly makes you feel compelled to back someone who has demonstrably lied about her lineage, to gain advantage in her career? Have you even read the article, it was meticulously researched.

#101 DON on 10.14.22 at 12:29 pm

#95 Nonplused on 10.14.22 at 11:26 am
Last year I advised everyone to get a backup generator like this one:

https://www.canadiantire.ca/en/pdp/champion-3550-4450-watt-portable-generator-rv-ready-0550370p.html?loc=plp

It’s on sale right now for 40% off, which makes it $450. But what’s notable about that is that last year $450 was the regular price, and that was up $50 from the previous year. This was a $400 generator. Now, 2 years later, CT thinks it is an $800 generator.

And they say inflation is only ~8%. I think the same guy who does the unemployment numbers must do the inflation numbers. Just don’t count anyone who isn’t on UI, and don’t count anything that goes up in price when the dollar collapses 25%. Problem solved!

********
I saw that as well…jack up the price and put it on sale at the original price or above to maintain the monthly profit target. It is almost as if they think we are not watching. Mask the whole inflation issue.

#102 Old Boot thrashes Faron on 10.14.22 at 12:31 pm

and it’s so much fun to see, especially yesterday when Faron did the classic Monty Python ‘run away! run away!’ retreat.

#103 Faron on 10.14.22 at 12:34 pm

#96 Old Boot on 10.14.22 at 11:48 am

https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/rich-educated-people-more-likely-to-lie-cheat-1.1242480

Hmm, rich and educated… who does that remind me of…? Got it: Sail Away! An apparently wealthy person who holds gobs of liquid assets who (along with his business co owners) took CEWS to the tune of 6 figures despite never experiencing a business slow-down by his own claims all over this here comments section. We agree on something! Science!

#104 Bucky on 10.14.22 at 12:48 pm

Aside from the usual culture war riff-raff, the comments today are interesting in that I sense a mood of capitulation in equities. Still room for the market to fall, but signs the right time to buy in is near.

#105 Faron on 10.14.22 at 12:56 pm

Russ et al., because I expect some of you to google H2S as a GHG, I’ll clarify that my defn relies in it being IR absorbing at wavelengths important in Earth’s atmosphere. As I indicated, it’s not prevalent nor important for climate change because it reacts out of the atmosphere quickly.

Put simply, almost any gaseous species with molecules made up of atoms of varying polarity (H2S vs O2) will absorb IR. More complex molecules or molecules with the most polar components (CFCs) will be the strongest absorbers. How they interact with light is a quantum effect and how they absorb/emit light in-bulk is where statistical mechanics comes into play.

This concludes my morning comment stream.

#106 Old Boot on 10.14.22 at 1:03 pm

#99 Faron on 10.14.22 at 12:16 pm

#93 Old Boot on 10.14.22 at 10:54 am

If you find yourself surrounded by people, or only “somehow” engaging with people, who can’t debate you civilly, then it’s highly likely they aren’t the problem. It’s doubtful that you have experienced the statistical aberration of only finding jerks on the opposite side of your ideology.

Similarly, when I meet people who kvetch about all the a-holes in their lives, then it’s natural to conclude that the complainer is the a-hole.

You claim to understand psychology… maybe projection is something for you to look into.

*************

The only discourse acceptable to the Trannish Inquisition is “No Debate!”, followed by ad hominem attacks in an effort to stifle dissent. (see also: slime, heifer, a-hole, etc.)

No, they can only resort to emotionally incontinent threats of violence (Kill The TERFS). Only women are referred to as TERFS, and only women who stick their heads above the parapet are hounded out of their jobs; men like Ricky Gervais don’t face rape and death threats.

https://www.newsweek.com/save-1-trans-kill-1-terf-graffiti-appears-paris-international-womens-day-event-1574592

Your tantrums here only bolster my claims, while undermining your own.

You don’t even wait to respond to a specific statement or claim with your ad hominems and insults; you pro-actively pepper your nonsense with inflammatory remarks, designed to provide you with your preferred
source of dopamine: the momentary illusion of moral superiority.

Just go back to Twitter and wait for those sweet, sweet ‘likes’ to shower you with the approval you so desperately seek.

Signed:

Dr. TERF,
MD, Psy.D (seeing as you have no issue with fraudulent credentials, I feel safe identifying as such)

#107 PBrasseur on 10.14.22 at 1:06 pm

Productivity inflation

Demand is high due to excess credit. Excess credit is high because of money printing ans state (including but not only central banks) intervention in the economy.

Productivity is low because of boomers retiring, big governments sucking up too much capital and manpower from the economy. Regulatory environments hostile to economic freedom. And money going too much to consumption instead of productive activities.

Low productivity is a structural problem that will be with us for a long time. The only solution to inflation then is to kill demand by slowing credit with high rates.

For Canada, Australia, N-Z and plenty more this spells Disaster…

#108 Faron on 10.14.22 at 1:07 pm

#102 Old Boot gnashes at Faron on 10.14.22 at 12:31 pm

retreat

One more:

No, it was a cross-to-the-other-side-of-the-street-when-you-see-an-unstable-and-threatening-person-headed-your-way move. The information, data and harm reduction is about 7:3 against Old Boot.

It’s a complicated issue with high stakes. Embittered people like her only do harm. She comes here because she knows she’ll get a warm snuggle from the righties like yourself who equate abortion issues to armadillo killing, who enjoy trolling people with tales of dog eating, who snigger at idealistic cyclists getting killed in a Muslim country, and who see statue toppling as equable with racially driven vehicular homicide — all things that have been revealed in this comments section.

#109 jess on 10.14.22 at 1:15 pm

that should knock down some of the GDP

read what WAS headed for Canada on a private jet!
Hundreds of firearms and 12.6 tonnes of drugs seized in Caribbean operation
13 October 2022

Hundreds of firearms and 12.6 tonnes of drugs seized in Caribbean operation

Operation Trigger VII leads to more than 500 arrests across 19 countries
LYON, France – A joint firearms operation between INTERPOL and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Implementation Agency for Crime and Security (IMPACS) has led to the seizure of some 350 weapons, 3,300 rounds of ammunition and record drug hauls across the Caribbean.
Operation Trigger VII (24 – 30 September) saw officers from 19 countries coordinate controls at airports, seaports, land border and inland hotspots, acting on intelligence pointing to organized crime groups and individuals involved in firearms trafficking. They also searched warehouses, inspected packages and carried out targeted checks at firearms dealerships, shooting ranges and private security companies.
Police made a total of 510 arrests during the week-long operation, including the subject of an INTERPOL Red Notice wanted for murder.
Trigger VII actions also led to the impressive seizure of 10.1 tonnes of cocaine and 2.5 tonnes of cannabis, highlighting the convergence of trafficking routes and the use of firearms used to control the illegal drug trade.
Pistols and bullets hidden in cereal boxes
When customs authorities in Dominica x-rayed a suspicious package, they sent information to the operational hub for checks on the sender and intended recipient. ATF and HSI queried their respective databases, and officers found multiple firearms purchases, placing the package under surveillance. When the recipient came to collect the shipment, police discovered 20 pistols and multiple rounds of ammunition hidden in cereal boxes. Investigations are continuing both in the United States and Dominica.
HSI and the Royal Bahamas Police Force worked closely on an international controlled delivery from Fort Lauderdale to Nassau. The package, which had been flagged in the US, was monitored throughout its shipment in order to seize two firearms and arrest the recipient.
A number of emerging trends were identified throughout the operation. In St Kitts and Nevis, for example, officers saw their first seizure of firearms assembled using ‘80 per cent’ pistol frames. Also known as ghost guns, these weapons are unserialized and untraceable as they are often completed at home using specialized kits, allowing individuals to bypass gun laws and checks.
https://www.interpol.int/News-and-Events/News/2022/Hundreds-of-firearms-and-12.6-tonnes-of-drugs-seized-in-Caribbean-operation

#110 Shawn on 10.14.22 at 1:27 pm

Alberta Economy remains very hot

https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221014/dq221014a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221014/dq221014b-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

Sell your over-priced Ontario or B.C. house and come on over. Or at least send your kids. (Only the ambitious ones please, but then again the lazy will never bother to come.)

#111 yvr_lurker on 10.14.22 at 1:36 pm

cherry picking data …

if you missed the “best” days.

what if you missed the “worst” days. you don’t have a study for that?
——–

Good point. I think it all depends on what you need the $$$ for and the time-frame, and whether the money you are planning to invest is outside or inside the system initially. Say you sold your house in Nov. 2021 and had a huge influx of “new” cash, or an inheritance. If you ignored the inflationary signals coming in last December and had just invested it in the market at that time, you’d be down over 10–15% by now. Effectively, you’d be down by 20% as there were safer options at that time that would have given you at least some return. With that 10–15% loss it may take years to recover if the market only recovers slowly in time. I see no euphoric conditions on the horizon that will thrust the market upwards quickly in the near term. However, If you just waited with this extra influx or put it into a one-year GIC or something safe, or even start putting some $$$ into the market now while it is low, you’d be far better off. Is the TSX going to be at 22K next summer? Doubt it. Head Financial dude from BMO predicted a 22K TSX by Christmas. They always have rose coloured glasses on as it is the industry that they work in. Just like realtors always saying it is a good time to buy no matter what the landscape is. People need to make their own judgement call.

What has been going on in the last 10 months is really an outlier or “extreme event”, which really throws to question the usual thinking that is reliant on slowly varying market conditions. If you believe that in the current times that the market variations are just short-term “fluctuations”, then put your extra $$ in and stay invested with what you already have (don’t take a real loss) and just focus on the long-time horizon.

My view is that what is happening now is a rather long-term event that will wind its way through the economy….inflation will be hard to control as the spiral of wage hikes/price increases will continue for awhile, and Putin’s war is nowhere near done, and the energy markets will be volatile. These are not “fluctuations” on a market status quo……

Amazing how we can post facts, yet people employ emotions. No wonder personal finances are in the current state. – Garth

#112 Jesus Murphy on 10.14.22 at 1:40 pm

Please God cut the power to Faron’s computer

#113 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.22 at 1:47 pm

@#108 Faron.
“It’s a complicated issue with high stakes.”

+++
It’s complicated because the Woke-istas MAKE it complicated.

Although I have noticed that the decapitation and destruction of 100+ year old ” colonialist” statues has abated somewhat.
Probably because it’s hard work.
But screaming , braying, paint splashing, Left Wing mobs are never wrong when “political correctness” and their version of history, is on their side.

#114 The Joy of Steerage on 10.14.22 at 1:52 pm

#111 Jesus Murphy on 10.14.22 at 1:40 pm

Please God cut the power to Faron’s computer
…..
Would not Garth be God in this case…but he wants us all to suffer for our sins of buying RE

#115 Old Boot on 10.14.22 at 2:01 pm

#108 Faron on 10.14.22 at 1:07 pm

#102 Old Boot gnashes at Faron on 10.14.22 at 12:31 pm

retreat

One more:

No, it was a cross-to-the-other-side-of-the-street-when-you-see-an-unstable-and-threatening-person-headed-your-way move. The information, data and harm reduction is about 7:3 against Old Boot.

It’s a complicated issue with high stakes. Embittered people like her only do harm. She comes here because she knows she’ll get a warm snuggle from the righties like yourself who equate abortion issues to armadillo killing, who enjoy trolling people with tales of dog eating, who snigger at idealistic cyclists getting killed in a Muslim country, and who see statue toppling as equable with racially driven vehicular homicide — all things that have been revealed in this comments section.

***********

‘Harm reduction’ is the motte and bailey of opiate use discourse.

Harm reduction was proposed in the 90’s in YVR as part of a 4 Pillars approach to tackling iv drug use and HIV infection, which was becoming resistant to treatment due to non-compliance by infected drug users with a then-onerous drug regimen.

1. Prevention
2. Enforcement
3. Harm reduction
4. Treatment

https://vancouver.ca/people-programs/four-pillars-drug-strategy.aspx

How many pillars are still standing? One – harm reduction – desperately braced with failed concepts like:

– Housing first
– Destigmatization

Harm reduction alone was never meant to be effective against HIV transmission and drug use, and has never been proven to be effective against either.

Exactly when the claim switched from ” a 4 pillars approach prevents HIV transmission and drug use” to ” a single component of the 4 pillars approach prevents od deaths” occurred, I can’t say. But it is a completely unevidenced claim.

Reducing harm is a lovely concept; it gives us all snuggly feelings of moral benevolence, but empirically results in more drug deaths.

I’ll say it again: proponents of harm reduction have no evidence to claim it does anything but cause more deaths.

#116 Faron on 10.14.22 at 2:04 pm

#106 Old Boot on 10.14.22 at 1:03 pm

w/re analogies (heifer, slime etc) and name calling, If I go outside and urge: “here kitty kitty kitty” and the dog comes, is it my fault or the dog’s?

You seem willing to stoop to the low level of self-identifying (if nothing else Turpel, who I frankly couldn’t care less about, has legit academic creds) academically and have responded to my analogies as well as my initial trans-hating monster that wasn’t aimed at you.

Frankly, with you having been willing to take on any and all mantles (centrist, lefty, lesbian, TERF, MD, Psy.D., slime, heifer) I don’t believe any of your self-identification. Maybe you are that weird climate change denying grump I deal with? Maybe a 300lb kid on his bed. Maybe identifying as a lesbian is a manipulative tactic to give your shoddy, angry arguments some tinge of credibility?

At least you can, and most certainly have (creepily) googled my creds. Happy to post photos and transcripts. Not into gender verification and the implicit pull-down-your-pants-so-we-can-be-sure vibes therein.

Kind of expecting a delete here given that we are seriously trying Garth’s patience with this.

Enough. – Garth

#117 the Jaguar on 10.14.22 at 2:05 pm

Each day, this small cry of desperation. Just a brief plea to end the madness. The anguished cry for mercy from one of the cells in the looney bin.
I am beside myself with laughter…. Hang in there Murphy, lol ++++

#120 Murphy on 10.13.22 at 10:06 am
Please God cut the power to Faron’s computer….

#112 Jesus Murphy on 10.14.22 at 1:40 pm
Please God cut the power to Faron’s computer…

#118 SoggyShorts on 10.14.22 at 2:15 pm

#111 yvr_lurker on 10.14.22 at 1:36 pm
cherry picking data …

if you missed the “best” days.

what if you missed the “worst” days. you don’t have a study for that?
************************
Gotta check the archives– I’m almost certain this blog has posted that data before in a comparison chart

The conclusion iirc was that missing the 10 best and 10 worst days still devasted your portfolio.

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.14.22 at 2:20 pm

Billions in devaluated assets?

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/10/14/vancouver-real-estate-vulnerable/

#120 Faron on 10.14.22 at 2:41 pm

#115 Old Boot on 10.14.22 at 2:01 pm

You are drinking expensive scotch and spittle-spraying at empty chairs; no-one is arguing with you. Garth blew the whistle, it’s time to move on.

#121 Old Boot on 10.14.22 at 2:46 pm

#118 SoggyShorts on 10.14.22 at 2:15 pm

#111 yvr_lurker on 10.14.22 at 1:36 pm
cherry picking data …

if you missed the “best” days.

what if you missed the “worst” days. you don’t have a study for that?
************************
Gotta check the archives– I’m almost certain this blog has posted that data before in a comparison chart

The conclusion iirc was that missing the 10 best and 10 worst days still devasted your portfolio.

********

The bottom entry on Sinan’s chart is the result of “stayed invested”. I’m thinking that means “invested for every (best and worst) day since 1979”

#122 Faron on 10.14.22 at 3:07 pm

#115 Old Boot on 10.14.22 at 2:01 pm

proponents of harm reduction have no evidence to claim it does anything but cause more deaths.

Now you are embarrassing yourself. Just. Stop.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3928290/

Dozens of peer-reviewed controlled trial publications provide support for the effectiveness of harm reduction for a multitude of clients and disorders without indications of iatrogenic effects

#123 Penny Henny on 10.14.22 at 3:23 pm

#116 Faron on 10.14.22 at 2:04 pm

Enough. – Garth

///////////////

C’mon Garth. His head was just about to explode.

#124 Tony on 10.14.22 at 3:41 pm

Historically, equity markets have led the economy by 6-9 months

That was eons ago in the past, all that changed around 1993 or 1994. Since then its just been a circus sideshow based on the greater fool theory with zero or near zero connect to the real economy. Now its just a crapshoot guessing what the bankers will do but they need to keep the social security system alive for as long as possible. They could head-fake everyone and shift money into something else. This hasn’t happened yet. To me the U.S. stock market was trading at fair market value in the 1970’s.

#125 yvr_lurker on 10.14.22 at 3:54 pm

Amazing how we can post facts, yet people employ emotions. No wonder personal finances are in the current state. – Garth
———————-
Knew you would say that. My finances are just fine, but would have been in much better shape with my DC pension from work if there was an option in Feb to pull much of it from the market when it was clear to me that a major long-term correction was coming. Did not have a pull switch to activate at that time as my employer gives only 4 options…. The new money I unexpectedly received is in much better shape

#126 Tony on 10.14.22 at 5:14 pm

Re: #74 Meh on 10.14.22 at 1:18 am

The chart pattern looks like the was the plunge protection team. Overlay the charts with the days the plunge protection team rescued the U.S. stock market.

There is no such group. But I hear Trump won the election. – Garth

#127 Left GTA on 10.14.22 at 5:22 pm

@ Sinan re: ZWB… Thank you for that. I read an article now explaining the return of capital. I did not know that.
Maybe I will sell ZWB and wait the 31 days and buy ZEB instead. Or just some TD stocks.

@ Dharma Bum: Thank you for the explanation.