The standoff

You could tell from the signs this wasn’t serious.

They were all professionally printed, nicely staked, same typeface, same message. No tatty pieces of hand-held cardboard with magic marker demands scrawled with anger on them. Instead, nice, neat placards. Likely unloaded from the hatch of a Bimmer SUV.

So the ‘protest’ held on the weekend in Surrey against (a) high mortgage rates and (b, especially) the ‘Government’, fizzled into meaninglessness. It seems Canadians – despite being in one of the most bizarrely-priced real estate markets on the planet – are not yet revolting. Even with a well-heeled realtor behind the revolution.

So fixed mortgage rates are going up again this week. That results from the surge in bond yields we showed you last week – a pop which followed employment numbers showing the economy has not yet rolled over from a 1,200% increase in the Bank of Canada rate. Financial markets therefore expect the rate hikes to go on – here in two weeks, and in the US a few days later. There are a couple more hikes for the Bank of Canada, and it appears unlikely the cost of money will be falling during 2023.

This is utterly bad news for realtors and sellers who were waiting for better conditions. In fact, worse are coming. Once it becomes clear what’s ahead, listings will increase and real price reductions take hold.

As stated, more mortgage hikes – another 20 basis points, or so, starting tomorrow (Wednesday). Within 24 hours we’ll be at the highest level for fixed-rate mortgages in 14 years. The stress test is on its way to 7.5%, and the hurdle will prove too high for many buyers. To qualify, they must lower the amount financed – disappointing, as prices have not declined enough to allow them to proceed. Something has to break. And it’s not what we saw in Surrey.

Meanwhile the immediate issue is the trigger rate for many folks with variable-rate mortgages. To date they’ve escaped higher rates because of fixed monthly payments. But that ends when the money they pay is insufficient to cover mounting interest charges. Then the trigger’s pulled. The monthly rises, and owners are faced with close to 100% of payments going for interest and 0% in debt repayment. Upon renewal many will see their payments double. Then we have a mini-crisis. Many forced sales. Listings swell. And prices will not be able to withstand the tide.

Take a look at how many are impacted by this scenario. These are the folks who made a mistake by borrowing variable, usually to grab a lower monthly rate so they could buy above their means. Bad idea.

The share of variable-rate mortgages has doubled

After last week’s employment data – which was robust – Mr. Market, as mentioned, is pricing in two more rate hikes in Canada and one in the States. The current chartered bank prime of 5.45% will be (to remind) 6.2% by Christmas. Fixed-rate mortgages are approaching 6%, so people who borrowed at 3% three years ago are in the crosshairs. The payments on a $400,000 borrowing will increase from $1,800 to $2,600. Worse, the increased interest paid, and the decrease in debt retirement, is stark. The cost of financing homeownership therefore escalates in two ways simultaneously.

Currently there’s a standoff in the marketplace. Sellers are withdrawing, waiting for higher prices. Buyers are hesitant, waiting for reductions. Inventory is very low in most markets, so the buyers active now are keeping prices in a narrow range. When it becomes clear that February and March will be far worse than were October and November, the chemistry will change. Mortgage rates will not fall in any meaningful way for a long time. They’ll never in your lifetime return to 1.5% for variable and 2.89% for five-year fixed. There’s only one way for prices to head, and that happens when listings pop.

Simple advice. Sell now. Buy later.

Hopefully folks listened when I said the same thing eight months ago. In Surrey, clearly, they did not.

About the picture: “When the government is on fire with the freebies,” writes Gil, “the dog and cat are enjoying the pleasant times. Dog is just over 1 year old and kitty is 2-3 months old.  Sort of like millennials.  What will happen if the fire stops … just for a while? Thanks for your blog.”

160 comments ↓

#1 Jason on 10.11.22 at 1:31 pm

Mr Turner, just a quick note to thank you and your staff for the daily blog – I look forward to it everyday.

Respectfully,

Jason

#2 West New West on 10.11.22 at 1:37 pm

Those people in the photograph…….I wonder if any of them had an idea of what they themselves would do if they were in government? I would have liked to see someone get a video camera in front of any of them and ask that simple question……’Sir/Madame, I see you are not happy, what is it, specifically, that you would like government to do to make you a happier person?’

#3 Faron on 10.11.22 at 1:42 pm

#165 Shawn on 10.11.22 at 12:21 pm

I don’t know if growth in population is needed. I am certain that increased efficiency automation and productivity per person are key.

Theoretically, increased competition for jobs arising from a larger workforce should allow corps to demand more from their workers assuming a fixed wage (not that they should IMO and the fixed wage component is a major added dimension). In the current environment with labour scarcity, productivity suffers because labour has the upper hand in demanding lighter work loads, accommodation etc.

And since that world could possibly automate away jobs, We must own corporations. If you can’t earn from your labour, you MUST earn from capital.

Sure, but the consequences for being unable to earn from labour for those that don’t have capital to begin with are society destabilizing. In the highly automated world, a very steeply progressive tax system will be necessary for stability of democracies. I’d argue (based on the thinking of others) that the massivelyincreased inequality that has transpired over the past 40 years is playing a huge role in the rise of authoritarianism in the US under Trump, guys like PP in Canada, Orban in Hungary etc. Hoodwinked (meaning put in place under a system of propaganda AKA Fox News) totalitarian or authoritarian rule is the only way to suppress the social uprising that such inequality will engender and to prevent the necessarily steep taxation on the wealthiest who are stripping capital out of the poorest majority.

#4 dave on 10.11.22 at 1:42 pm

Oil prices are heading higher thanks to OPEC.

Will the central banks front load rates even more than originally planned?

#5 TurnerNation on 10.11.22 at 1:47 pm

I always wondered how our Forum Host got motivated into writing so many books. Strangely lately I am full of ideas. Here I’m thinking a whole series…

How to Talk To a Leftist (If you must)
How to Talk To a Covidian (If you must)
How to Talk to a Kanadian (If you must)

—– This is permanent state of affairs in the Former First World Countries. Nothing else matters but the curtailing of human activity (Control over our Feeding, Breeding and Travel/Movement). Year 3 coming up.

.France Faces More Fuel Shortages as Unions Plan to Prolong Strikes (bloomberg.com)

https://www.euronews.com/travel/2022/10/10/ghost-town-japan-reopens-borders-but-visitors-face-shuttered-shops-and-short-staffed-hotel
’Ghost town’: Japan reopens borders, but visitors find short-staffed hotels and closed up shops

.Covid cases spike sharply in Germany since the start of the Oktoberfest celebrations (timesnownews.com)

https://thediplomat.com/2022/09/resentment-is-rising-against-chinas-zero-covid-policies/
“The next day, the health code on our phones turned red.
Standardized throughout the country, the health code comes in three colors. Green is the color of acceptance; yellow or red would effectively limit a person’s freedom to access any public services even in case of emergency.

#6 DC on 10.11.22 at 1:53 pm

Hey JT. Send cheque. I don’t care how you square it, just send cheque ASAP. Thanks.

#7 Armpit on 10.11.22 at 1:54 pm

….and who wants to be a landlord????

https://globalnews.ca/news/9189164/tenants-move-out-hamilton-home-many-dogs-cats-remain/

#8 Timmy on 10.11.22 at 1:54 pm

Lol, I see a sign saying “homeowners are not stupid” Well, some are. What did those of them think when they bought houses when interest rates were at their lowest point in their entire lives? That rates would stay that low? Some people are still advertising their places for higher than the assessed value–in a falling market with rising rates! This will not end well.

#9 Dr V on 10.11.22 at 1:57 pm

I see many signs in the pic say “HomeOWNERS”, and claim they are not “Stupid”.

Well, I am a homeowner, and so far the rising rates have given me better stock valuations for investing, better yields on fixed-income, and a return not starting with a zero on any cash I hold.

Has my house gone down in value? Sure, $100k or so by average sale price from peak in my market. Still 3 times the price of 20 years ago when I had it built.

All good. So I guess the signs are right.

#10 Dr V on 10.11.22 at 2:05 pm

8 Timmy

“Lol, I see a sign saying ‘homeowners are not stupid’
————————————————–

Hi Tim. Those you describe are better identified as “mortgage payors”.

#11 PeterfromCalgary on 10.11.22 at 2:06 pm

It is not a fun time to be a central banker. They are trying to balance getting inflation down without crashing the economy. Everybody thinks they know better then the central bankers including the UN which warned about rising rates hurting developing nations.

Despite reading and even understanding a little of that big book “A Monetary History of the United States” I don’t know more than central bankers. I just hope they know a lot more than I do about what they are doing.

#12 Faron on 10.11.22 at 2:06 pm

#5 TurnerNation on 10.11.22 at 1:47 pm
I always wondered how our Forum Host got motivated into writing so many books. Strangely lately I am full of ideas. Here I’m thinking a whole series…

How to Talk To a Leftist (If you must)
How to Talk To a Covidian (If you must)
How to Talk to a Kanadian (If you must)

Have at ‘er. Just like your comments, they will be irrelevant and unread. Fact.

#13 IHCTD9 on 10.11.22 at 2:11 pm

Hopefully all those protesters got a free hot-dog and Coke out of the deal.

#14 Faron on 10.11.22 at 2:14 pm

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 9:21 pm
@#86 Sgt. Sail
“A little empathy, bro.”

+++
They need discipline.
A boot camp.
25 mile hikes in the sun.
Bottled water and coffee crisp bars every 5 miles.

Are you up to the drill Sarge?

Doubtful. the chances of Sail Away being brave enough to face the human faces behind the problem are very small. True for most of us to be fair.

#15 baloney Sandwitch on 10.11.22 at 2:22 pm

LOL
I guess the above crowd is all realtors & friends & family enjoying the early fall weather given the low house for sale inventory. I am sure there is beer in the background.

#16 Travelbug on 10.11.22 at 2:28 pm

Hi Garth,
My husband and I have been faithful readers of your blog for years. Thanks for all your advice and financial education. We took your warnings about raising interest rates seriously last year and renewed our 5 yr mortgage in April of last year, a few months before it came due for renewal. Could have paid it off but at 2% we couldn’t resist to lock it in for another 5 years (with the green bank). Now, of course our portfolio is down but again, we follow your advice and do nothing. Hopefully by 2026 the markets will have recovered and we’ll be able to pay off the mortgage when it comes due for renewal. Thanks again!

#17 Nora Lenderby on 10.11.22 at 2:30 pm

“Home Owners are NOT, Stupid” FTFY.

#18 Søren Angst on 10.11.22 at 2:32 pm

There are a whack of mortgages in Canada. To “dollarize” Garth’s chart:

Chartered Banks … Q2 2022, $ x 1,000,000

Total, mortgages = 1,636,699
Residential mortgages, insured = 440,282
Residential mortgages, uninsured = 1,102,363

Mortgage loans outside Canada outstanding, residential = 141,386

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1010013401
——

Non-Bank Lenders … Q2 2021, $ x 1,000

Total, mortgages = 1,724,413
Residential mortgages, insured = 556,915
Residential mortgages, uninsured = 1,167,498
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211202/t001a-eng.htm
———————

Thematic to today’s Dog and Cat photo …

Dog Owner’s as of late Demonizing their dogs (Felix will be happy about this development)

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WQHZMaLUF-o
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/W7gLbqFldpk

So as not to leave Felix neglected, Floppa’s reaction when the can opener not heard whirring at the appointed time of day (NB dog bone around neck – let your imagination wander on that)

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/q1hYIuV2-c8

Why Floppa has a dog bone around its neck – it really wants to be a dog. Smart kitty.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/b7FizfjblmA

#19 Squire on 10.11.22 at 2:33 pm

If you listened to an agent and waited until autumn to sell, that’s too bad. It was pretty clear where things were headed. I didn’t realize how strong of an emotion FEAR was until covid hit and FOMO/ FOOP arrived.
Here’s a tip, don’t operate on fear. We hit the peak in February 2022 but it was already too late for some.
One more thing, wars are inflationary and we are thick in the middle of it. Once that one is over, Taiwan might be next. China has many issues so the only thing left is Nationalism, Taiwan and more inflation.

#20 Y on 10.11.22 at 2:34 pm

It’s 1800 a month to rent a one bedroom in North York.

#21 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 2:35 pm

From the trunk of a bimmer? Please. It’s a Bentley.

No sympathy for the house hoarders, but there are some sad stories as well. Saw a young dad saying he had $42 left after paying his mortgage, and had to send his wife and baby back to India.

Maybe using a mortgage broker willing to fudge your income on the application was naive, but the broker was the criminal.

The house hoarders who get burned may learn their lesson, but the ones who’ve profited mightily will be happy to buy up their distressed assets and continue to profit.

Artificial scarcity of housing will keep rents and prices high. Until Van and TO become NFLD, and suffer successive y/y net losses of population, rent and prices will remain sticky due to im/migration.

Young people may be highly educated, but they’re also deeply indoctrinated into pervasive fauxgressive ideologies that make them think they’re the moral superiors of paleo homeowners. They will continue to flock to high CoL cities whose governments reflect these beliefs.

They can’t afford rent or the price of a home so they compensate by imposing their ‘inclusive’ luxury belief systems on the working class and minorities, who actually bear the consequences of free range mental illness and criminality.

Those who can afford to move away do. Those can’t, become hostages.

#22 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 2:46 pm

#12 Faron on 10.11.22 at 2:06 pm

#5 TurnerNation on 10.11.22 at 1:47 pm
I always wondered how our Forum Host got motivated into writing so many books. Strangely lately I am full of ideas. Here I’m thinking a whole series…

How to Talk To a Leftist (If you must)
How to Talk To a Covidian (If you must)
How to Talk to a Kanadian (If you must)

Have at ‘er. Just like your comments, they will be irrelevant and unread. Fact.

**********

Um, you just responded to the body of TN’s comment, indicating that you read it….

Fact.

#23 ogdoad on 10.11.22 at 2:47 pm

There’s actually a little bit of me that is going to feel sorry for the leute who stretched their finances just enough to be able to buy a house a few months ago…Then, the inevitable…

Noah and Emma so proud of their new bedrooms…Grand parents looking around, checking for dust, judging…scraping their noses on the freshly painted 9’ers.

‘Good use of our money, don’t ya think, Mod?’ Sure do, Hon. Really like the yard! Bigger than I expected. Looks like the neighbors are enjoying Christmas as well. Jeesh, their tree is big and…are they eating duck?’.

Parents: ‘Jason, you didn’t say that mortgage rates we’re going to rise? You know the dishwasher just went right? That’s 1k! Where’s that gonna come from?
‘Julie, you’re the one who wanted to buy…don’t blame me…who cares if you’re parents gifted us $$$…(where’s the pot shop?). ‘The roof is leaking over Noah’s closet, too. Man, I was happier renting.

Several months later: ‘yes, i know Julie. I’ll have them back on Sunday…(bitch)’. ‘I’ll drop’em off before work. I’m on nights again’.

‘You better, Jason (bum). Payment due next week, too – ciao!’.

Just sayin’

Og

#24 ElGatoNeroYVR on 10.11.22 at 2:47 pm

#88 Michael in-north-york on 10.10.22 at 8:37 pm
The only quick solution is that Ontario, Quebec, B.C. provincial governments enter the rental market, brush the bylaws, and build a massive amount of rental units in Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Vancouver.
========
While I agree with your post the proposed solution is definitely long term ,need for sure.
The quickest is to:
– remove the tax rate on rental income for the next 5 years ; yes subsidize landlords so more rental are now market viable.
– evictions for non-payment of rent within 2 weeks of due date should be automatic , no filing , no counter application required; tenant pays or not ,maybve give them 7 days grace period once a year.
– evictions for any/no reason with 60 days notice and one month free rent allowed given the property is not going back for rental for 6 months after
– tenancy boards shoud not take more than 7 days to hear any issues not covered above ,they will have plenty of time if points 2 and 3 are implemented.

All of this ,while not politically correct will solve the lack of rental issues pretty much overnight ,as you clearly identifed there is a lot of potential rental stock that people don’t bother with due to insane tenant protection laws.

#25 Never trust a money changer on 10.11.22 at 2:50 pm

#8 Timmy on 10.11.22 at 1:54 pm

Lol, I see a sign saying “homeowners are not stupid” Well, some are. What did those of them think when they bought houses when interest rates were at their lowest point in their entire lives? That rates would stay that low? 

————–

That’s precisely what they were told by none other than the governor of the Bank of Canada. That man should be fired immediately and then class action sued into oblivion IMO.

#26 Søren Angst on 10.11.22 at 2:50 pm

IMF having a bird today it seems about everything.

IMF cuts global growth forecast for next year, warns ‘the worst is yet to come’
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-for-2023-warns-worst-is-yet-to-come.html

IMF Warns Global Real Estate Markets Are At Risk of A Steep Correction
https://betterdwelling.com/imf-warns-global-real-estate-markets-are-at-risk-of-a-steep-correction/

——————

There is going to be a rate PAUSE in 2023 per the US Fed, only +0.2% forecast for the entire year and with another +115 bps of increases yet to come in 2022.

Hard to say what is going to happen but none of the above seems good news to me.

I do think Mr. Market early next year or by Garth’s on or about Christmas time will see a rebound in stock prices.

I have given up on a Halloween rebound.

I also believe rates not high enough to stomp down inflation, if History is a guide. That means you can throw out the PAUSE out the door.

Flip a coin. Call it. As for me:

Who knows?

Expect the Unexpected post Covid.

#27 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 3:00 pm

“Homeowners”? Naw, just a bunch of hurtin’, house-hoarding realtors.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RE_MarketWatch/status/1579838111601000449

#28 mj on 10.11.22 at 3:02 pm

I never thought that rates would go up this high, this fast. Now it doesn’t look like it’s enough. Seems like rates will have to go above inflation. I wonder if we will see the bank of Canada go to 8%. That would mean mortgage rates would be over 10% with the stress test. Ouch

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 3:03 pm

@#173 IHCTD9
“Sometimes I consider a retirement out in Northern BC – or maybe just a part time landing pad. But the comments under Fartz’s linked Vid has many folks stating the problem is spreading all over the province.

What a damn waste.”

+++
Yep.
“Harm Reduction” policies vaunted by the “progressive” City and Province have made this much much much worse.

7 days to a new Mayor.
Kick these elitist snobs and their Woke policies to the curb.
Arrest and ship them all to south Surrey to Ponzie’s hood…

#30 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 3:06 pm

All those well dressed folks in the photo look like they’re all realtors.

A waste of time. US rates goin uppa uppa uppa and Canada has no choice but to follow.

:)

Bring on the Real Estate speculation slaughter.

#31 Doing my Part on 10.11.22 at 3:17 pm

Pot calling the kettle black, Faron saying Turner Nations comments are “irrelevant and unread”. Out of touch much?

#32 Greg B on 10.11.22 at 3:20 pm

Garth,

I am a long time follower of your blog. I had heeded your warning back in February and sold. Smartest move I ever made. Of course there were reasons other than the price point, but boy I am glad I did. Now I rent, drive a cheap car and have enough left over for whatever….

#33 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 10.11.22 at 3:20 pm

“…typeface…” is everyone’s typography lesson for the day.

Look at all those sans serif letter forms suggesting a lack of seriousness to their cause. They should have consulted a nomograph before creating signage.

#34 earthboundmisfit on 10.11.22 at 3:27 pm

“Hopefully all those protesters got a free hot-dog and Coke out of the deal”.

…. and a participation ribbon

#35 Faron on 10.11.22 at 3:29 pm

#171 Sail Away on 10.11.22 at 12:52 pm
#160 Faron on 10.11.22 at 11:36 am
#145 Sail Away on 10.11.22 at 9:51 am

to counteract the seemingly-accepted theory that always-increasing population is a good thing.

How do you conclude that anyone holds or expresses that view???

#36 Penny Henny on 10.11.22 at 3:35 pm

Big 5 banks, average yield just north of 5%

#37 Linda on 10.11.22 at 3:36 pm

On the good news side of things, my MIL has been able to sell her house in the GTA region. New owners are apparently anxious to move in so chances are the keys will be handed over by the end of the month. There was a price reduction of $300K & it took several months before the place sold, but the deal is done. While peak market was missed, at least there wasn’t any issue with the purchasers trying to back out of the deal.

About the increased payments mentioned. Seems like an awful lot of folks got mortgages for much more than $400K, so that example of how the monthly would increase is probably a conservative number. Given that so many households had been saying that they were within $200 of not meeting their monthly expenses, can’t see that a jump of $800 just for monthly mortgage payments is going to be anything but a financial crisis for many.

Despite the looming credit crunch for the indebted, can report that shoppers are out in force in the stores. Christmas merchandise is on display & based on my short 1/2 hour sojourn in one shop carts were being filled at a rapid pace. I get shopping early to score the best selection, but have to say that the gloomy economic forecast did not appear to be a consideration or even a concern.

#38 The Gold Standard on 10.11.22 at 3:43 pm

How many of those guys in that Surrey photo have more than one property? With illegal suites? Not declaring all their rental income? Massive mortgages? Let me guess …

#39 the Jaguar on 10.11.22 at 3:50 pm

Enlarge the group protest photo and be prepared to laugh your arse off at the signs. Hopeless.

‘Homeowners are not stupid”! ( oh yes they are, lol!)

“Government is playing politics”! (gee, what was your first clue?)

“Stop discriminating against home owners”! ( sorry, but Mr. Inflation doesn’t know or care where you live..).

Talk about amateur hour. Maybe they should try ‘ bra-burning’. Or at least read Old Boot’s post about the ‘ weaponization of empathy’ and it’s dangers……

( a thoughtful and enlightening post).

#40 Steven Rowlandson on 10.11.22 at 4:03 pm

We have not reached the point where the greediest realtor or homeowner is ready to seriously compromise on price or swear off of real estate as an investment… Much higher mortgage rates are needed. Medieval rates come to mind…. 50 to 66.66% on mortgages is just the ticket for psychologically traumatizing these genocidal profit seekers and even deficit addicted governments. There has been too much mercy and no repentance of financial sins in the last 42 or more years. Except when Paul Martin had any say over the budget. Alas all of his good works were expunged.

#41 Faron on 10.11.22 at 4:06 pm

#22 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 2:46 pm
#12 Faron on 10.11.22 at 2:06 pm
#5 TurnerNation on 10.11.22 at 1:47 pm

Have at ‘er. Just like your comments, they will be irrelevant and unread. Fact.

**********

the body of TN’s comment

Oooh, fun! The kraken has woken from its slumber.

I tend to consider the “body” of a text more toward the middle. Regardless, the word “leftist” caught my scanning eye. I’ve consumed about 0.001% of TN’s writing because I strictly avoid conspiracy nutters. They are almost as bad as trans-hating monsters, but not quite because they are mostly harmless. Trans hating often leads to murder of trams people and suicide.

Ultimately, technically, you are correct, but I meant it as one would refer to any book or text that was largely ignored. If you like, I’ll re-comment to say “mostly unread”.

#42 Just sayin' on 10.11.22 at 4:14 pm

DELETED (Racist)

#43 Steve on 10.11.22 at 4:17 pm

Garth, I think you need a post about the carnage in the bond market. The 30 year gilt has now lost more than BTC this year. Huge buyers of UST are not buying and countries are dumping UST to pay for energy. BOE has said they will not prop up their pensions who are leveraged to their neck, to chase return in “safe” bonds. I don’t think I’ve seen this in my lifetime?

#44 epic bear on 10.11.22 at 4:24 pm

They’ll never in your lifetime return to 1.5% for variable and 2.89% for five-year fixed.
_______________

you are correct.

there is now a secular BEAR market in bond prices
this usually lasts anywhere between 10-20 years.

the same repricing of house prices is happening now in stocks. 2020 was a once in a generation event.

stocks were bid up to ludicrous levels with zero interest rates and money printing. valuations were far worse than the dot com bubble. but that’s now in full reverse.

discount stock prices with:

1. a coming recession
2. falling earnings
3. 4.5% fed funds (and eventually higher)
4. energy shortages

you still have 40% downside on the SP.

all the garbage like ARKK, TSLA, COIN, have to be marked down 99% before this bear market ends.

you’re nowhere near the lows.

#45 Just sayin' on 10.11.22 at 4:24 pm

oh c’mon GT, that was hilarious! Sometimes I think I would be a gifted comedian like Dave Chappell.

#46 chalkie on 10.11.22 at 4:25 pm

Like the real estate boom in many countries, Canadians were initially fueled by historically low interest rates and then accelerated when affluent people trapped in their homes during the pandemic became flush with savings and sought bigger homes.
Bigger homes unfortunately, means bigger price drops when things go bottom up in the real estate market and that is what we are witnessing now.
The high home prices were never real, just like the savings were not real, people could not get out to spend their money, to include the WFH/WFA group, which is where the extra abundance of savings came from. Then there was the Trudeau government that threw money around for the taking of most sectors, they were like sailors who had been trapped at sea for a year or two, “money was easy come easy go for the government. Free money, cheap money and FOMO was a recipe for a steep climb and a long, long drop off the edge, only the wisemen/women could see it coming.

People don’t know where to turn, their mortgages coming up for renewal and the tide is rising fast, there is no safe haven, value of the homes has dropped in the hundreds of thousands and the banks wanting a fortune to renew.

The protest in British Columbia, what do the people thing that governments can do for them, the answer is absolutely nothing, “this problem is now a world problem”.

Economist are worse projectors than realtors, you put five of them in a room and you get six opinions, it’s like tossing a coin with them, the truth is, no one knows where the housing market will end up, “opinions are plentiful – everybody has one,” not the proper punch line, but I will respect and keep the blog comments clean.
One thing that you can bet your next meal on, the general public will be closer to how much homes by percentage price will drop and for how long after the dust has settled, plus we don’t get paid to give our opinions.

With the current aggressive interest rate hikes, a recession is now inevitable, thanks to the Bank of Canada and US Federal Reserve being in too much of a hurry to fix a problem that should have been looked at and gradually put into gear, two years earlier.

The general public could see this financial mess unfolding, but our leaders could not or would not listen to anyone, governments pretend to know best, they ha
ve our vote and don’t need us anymore for now.
Canadian inflation is still around the 7% range, keep in mind the government told us, they had to try and reign in the economy at 2% levels, later realizing this was impossible and quietly set their targets within the 3% range from the reports, this was another blunder to roll the dice.
The truth within the government’s expectations are the same as you and I have, they see the path, but don’t know where it leads.
The governments have allowed things to sparrow out of control and then pound their chest as if they are doing something about it. The reality is, the governments in most countries missed the boat and now we have to swim upstream through all the algae they left in their wake. You will be hard pressed to find any economists that disagree on whether a recession is in front of us, just over the horizon, then again, they are economist, what do they know more than you or I would assume or guess, based our everyday turbulence changes. The damage is done, we are just waiting for the already known outcome, the recession already brewing & steeping.
The United States will be first to put their hand up and announce the recession and Canada will wait for their signal and quickly say, “me too”.

When the hurt starts, the Americans will show us again, they don’t need our trade so much anymore and the Canadian plastic industry will fold like a pretzel and take our economy downstream like a cork on steroids.

Unfortunately, from the boom that was triggered in 2020 for the FOMO crowd, we are now all going to pay the cost to fix this dilemma, the pain is going to be long, hard and deep.
2021 Home prices were never real: The housing was the first blackeye to get the ball inflated and rolling, now the housing will be the first to deflate and sales will barely move, due to so many pin holes exhaling the wind from their sails, those marks are now red and costing every household more and more to pay for daily essentials.
Some lending institutions are predicting, homes will fall 50% from their highs to make housing affordable again, they may not be too far off the mark. Ontario now has multiple regions that have currently depreciated in value in the high 30’s and 40%. For the higher priced homes, it’s very common to find some discounted in one drop for a few hundred thousand dollars.

History repeating itself will show us all once again, who is in control. For our many market purchases, the housing markets percentage have climbed the highest, the next six months will plummet beyond a realtor’s nightmare, the wicked fast and out of control sellers market is over and in your rearview mirror for a long time to come. There are going to be many rough months ahead for the realtors trying to find home buyers, the saving for a rainy day has already started. Experienced realtors will know and understand their path ahead and have already padded themselves for the rough patch, the inexperienced realtors will feel the hurt like gout in your big toe.

For interest rate setting, whatever the United States does, Canada has to follow, or our trading volumes would feel like a jellyfish in a shark’s jaws, nothing to sink their teeth into.

Some home offers are being refused now, sellers holding out for yesterday’s prices, thinking there are better offers coming tomorrow may be a wish in one hand and a hope in the other. 2023 will not be friendly for home sales, at best it’s a long-term sideways price balance once the dust settles and there is still lots of dust in the air yet. Today’s Teenagers will have finished high school and perhaps with a couple kids of their own, before this housing turmoil gets a footing in late 2021 home prices to return again.

For the realtors cruising around looking for their next listing bullseye, it’s not just going to be a bumpy ride, but rather a crash, keep your air bags inflated, the home sales slowdown is underway at a speedy pace right now, the next few quarters won’t be pretty including a deplorable sales spring market.

Quote of the day: Many of life’s failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up.

#47 Cleb on 10.11.22 at 4:26 pm

I’m really surprised with Garth. He is usually spot on when it comes to pegging people based on their actions but this time me he is way off saying this protest could be perhaps orchestrated. Let me remind him these are the people that gained hundreds of thousands of dollars y/y for the last several years simply by signing a paper document saying they are the new owners…..does he think that they have the sheer stamina to put the time and effort into colouring their own signs? Nah, click print baby

#48 AK on 10.11.22 at 4:29 pm

Strange that nobody protested 18.00% mortgages during the late 70’s and early 80’s.
This is got to be the stupidest protest on record. :-)

#49 RE_Investor on 10.11.22 at 4:31 pm

#7 Armpit on 10.11.22 at 1:54 pm
….and who wants to be a landlord????
https://globalnews.ca/news/9189164/tenants-move-out-hamilton-home-many-dogs-cats-remain/

—————-

lol, I’ve been a landlord for 30 years, and I can see by the video these landlords were rookies. So sad they didn’t properly vet these tenants before letting them into their house. Although maybe they did and these tenants were ok initially, but then the $40,000 of withheld rent payments fueled the drug and alcohol consumption.

#50 Steven on 10.11.22 at 4:32 pm

Not a word what the Bank of England said today?

Hint…it isn’t good.

#51 jess on 10.11.22 at 4:34 pm

minions

The Justice Department has charged Graham Bonham-Carter, a British national, with wire fraud and conspiring to evade sanctions on behalf of the Russian oligarch Oleg V. Deripaska. An indictment unsealed Tuesday said Mr. Bonham-Carter, who was arrested in the U.K. and is awaiting extradition, misrepresented real estate expenses and art purchases.

Tuesday, October 11, 2022
U.K. Businessman Graham Bonham-Carter Indicted for Sanctions Evasion Benefitting Russian Oligarch Oleg Vladimirovich Deripaska
Deripaska’s Property Manager Arrested in U.K. for Funding U.S. Properties for Deripaska’s Benefit and Attempting to Expatriate Deripaska’s Artwork from U.S. through Deception

…”As alleged in the indictment, after Deripaska’s designation, Bonham-Carter engaged in over $1 million of illicit transactions to fund real estate properties in the United States for Deripaska’s benefit. Between in or about 2005 and in or about 2008, Deripaska purchased three residential properties in the United States, two in New York City and one in Washington, D.C. (the U.S. Properties). The properties were managed by a company named Gracetown Inc. After OFAC imposed sanctions on Deripaska on or about April 6, 2018, Gracetown Inc. continued to manage the properties Deripaska’s benefit. Shortly after Deripaska’s designation, Deripaska instructed Bonham-Carter to set up a new company for managing Deripaska’s properties. On or about May 25, 2018, Bonham-Carter wrote in an email that “OVD [i.e., Deripaska] wants me to set up my own company to run the [Belgravia Square] house and to possibly include Japan, Italy, China and more.” Less than two months later, on or about July 17, 2018, Bonham-Carter incorporated GBCM Limited. …

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/uk-businessman-graham-bonham-carter-indicted-sanctions-evasion-benefitting-russian-oligarch

#52 truth teller on 10.11.22 at 4:37 pm

I live in SW Ontario.

Near me there was a rural home, no basement, 1960’s build, septic and well, propane heat, and additions to the original house that was listed last spring for 800K. It sat all spring and summer unsold.

Recently it was reduced to 675K.

I drove by today and saw a sold sign out front. I don’t know the final agreement price.

Everything sells, it’s a question of price.

#53 Søren Angst on 10.11.22 at 4:38 pm

#36 Penny Henny

Big 5 banks, average yield just north of 5%

———————

It’s so their shareholders won’t bail. Free Fall Boat Anchors YTD:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=YTD

Go to my #18 Søren Angst and peruse these figures:

Residential mortgages, uninsured

True, drops in part due to the Mr. Market having a bad year BUT also the Big 5 Cdn Banks VERY vulnerable when John/Jane/Bill C-16 Public begin to default on their mortgages.

Means Earnings will be down, a lot. Hope it does not come to that but it is not looking good to me.

Not happy as 1 of my Cdn ETFs depends on the Big 5 Banks doing well.

Clearly, Mr. Market does not think they are.

In lieu, buy shareholders off with some Earnings in the form of Dividends.

#54 Storyteller on 10.11.22 at 4:39 pm

The Great Equaliser to falling real estate prices is to ramp up ⬆️ immigration numbers to exacerbate the homeless problem and get the Toronto elites richer from rent seeking, says a future fascist leader in Canada.

#55 cuke and tomato picker on 10.11.22 at 4:46 pm

Once again thank you for your blog your Thanksgiving message was excellent. Now for interest rates they have been low for 12 years and now they have creeped up a small amount so after enjoying a free ride for 12 years reality has given everyone a hint the party of free money is over.

#56 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 4:48 pm

#41 Faron on 10.11.22 at 4:06 pm

Oooh, fun! The kraken has woken from its slumber.

I tend to consider the “body” of a text more toward the middle. Regardless, the word “leftist” caught my scanning eye. I’ve consumed about 0.001% of TN’s writing because I strictly avoid conspiracy nutters. They are almost as bad as trans-hating monsters, but not quite because they are mostly harmless. Trans hating often leads to murder of trams people and suicide.

Ultimately, technically, you are correct, but I meant it as one would refer to any book or text that was largely ignored. If you like, I’ll re-comment to say “mostly unread”.

*************

Gonna need citations, Mr Scientist, for both evidence of my trans hatred and for it causing suicide.

Does Joe Biden hate trans people too? He knows who the men are:

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/10/biden-admin-trans-women-must-register-for-draft-trans-men-dont-have-to/

Careful now. Maybe I’m really really a mermaid, luring you onto the rocks of intellectual ruin with my siren song of reason.

#57 jess on 10.11.22 at 4:49 pm

morgan stanley -decommissioned data center

….” someone buying hardware at an online auction site when you are a Global Systemically Important Bank with $1.17 trillion in assets and more than a century of existence.
According to the SEC, the “vast majority of the hard drives from the 2016 Data Center Decommissioning remain missing” and in July 2020 Morgan Stanley Smith Barney had to notify “approximately 15 million impacted customers” that their personal data might be floating around out there – unencrypted.

https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2022/34-95832.pdf

#58 Flop… on 10.11.22 at 4:53 pm

Flop Drops.

Sure I could do one on Surrey, but let’s have a look at one in nearby Delta, as it seems to demonstrate how far things got out of control in So-so-ville.

The details…

9140 NORUM Rd, Delta.

How much they, or their realtor, thought the market owed them in February 2022.

1.7 million

How much the market decided to give them in late September.

1.2 million

Probably not alcoholics, no alcoholic is going to want to live on Norum road…

M48BC

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2727133/9140-NORUM-ROAD-Delta-BC/

#59 Shawn on 10.11.22 at 4:58 pm

Faint Hope Clause…

U.S. inflation comes out on Thursday. If it happens to be unexpectedly low month over month and especially the core version then there may be some celebration in stock and bond markets.

Obviously, year-over-year the inflation report will not be low. But month over month it might be.

#60 Jack IP on 10.11.22 at 5:02 pm

Two news I red today:
1. Rosenberg thinks the equities market will bottom in 2024, because on average the markets stop going down 16 months after the last rate hike. What are your thoughts on that?
2. Average condo rents are about 20% yoy. Your beloved realtor pasalis says it’s due to immigration. Do you agree? You can’t just say “we’re doing it to ourselves” about the rental market, the rentals have to be rented by someone… We can’t just rent them to one another.

#61 ElGatoNeroYVR on 10.11.22 at 5:07 pm

Back to today’s topic here is a unique opportunity for the bold and desperate in the next election.
Guarantee to cap mortgage rates at Bank of Canada prime for the next 5 years with no penalty. Mortgage providers shall be allowed a 0.25% markup to cover costs and a small profit
Allow for 50 years amortization when refinancing and 40 years for initial purchase ,or even better ,50 and 100 years.
See a majority rolling in.

Now back to my day job working (smart’ish) for a living .

#62 jim on 10.11.22 at 5:16 pm

Where were they when house prices were going UP?

Hypocrites.

#63 GW on 10.11.22 at 5:20 pm

Old Boot’s on a roll! Love it. Get ‘em Boot!

#64 jess on 10.11.22 at 5:24 pm

some of those protestors might benefit from reading and realize that the one man theory of blame is silly

The Economic Contributions of Hyman Minsky:
Varieties of Capitalism and Institutional Reform

explored the interrelationships among market structure,banking, the determinants of aggregate demand, and business cycle performance.

Financial Instability and the Decline (?) of Banking:
Public Policy Implications
Hyman P. Minsky*
Working Paper No. 127
October 1994

..”Stabilization policy is effective as it stabilizes aggregate profits. The great collapse of asset values in the 1930’s
occurred primarily because capital incomes (current, recent, andexpected) had fallen and only secondarily because the discountingfactor had risen.14 The increased preference for liquiditydecreases the capitalization rate for capital assets and equities
when financial traumas occur, but in the small-government capitalism, such as that which ruled in 1929-33, the numerators in the present-value formula (the capital asset pricing relation) first fell slightly, and then precipitously, as investment tapered off and then collapsed. The double whammy of increased
liquidity preference and decreased profits was responsible for the fall in asset values being greater than the fall in the consumer price level and in an index of the wages of employed workers.In our recent experience the main stabilizing device that
prevented the financial fiascos of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s from turning into a depression was the government’s deficit. One new aspect of the economy is the growth of managed monies in the form of pension and mutual funds. ….read more of this historical perspective @https://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp127.pdf

#65 Faron on 10.11.22 at 5:26 pm

LOL, three things plus bonus:

1) Is really really being a mermaid anything like vibrantly vibrant coral reefs?

2) From your article

While the policy was established before Biden took office

. Pinning that on Biden is intellectual dishonesty. Your siren song wanes quickly.

3) Not a gender/sexuality blog

Bonus) For someone referencing Homer, I’m surprisedly surprised you don’t have a better grasp of what the body of a text is.

byeee

#66 Rogerhomeinspector on 10.11.22 at 5:35 pm

#38 The Gold Standard

Funny you mention illegal apartments.

For the past year or so, one of my hobbies has been reporting illegal apartments and rentals to the local building department. I figured at first I’d get the big eye roll from them but they’ve been very accommodating and encouraging. Lost tax revenue and stressed public services and utilities is a thing because of it.

In fact, they actually gave me account access to check public records to see if a given property has had permits pulled for say duplexing in the event of adding a basement apartment.

A couple times a week I’ll browse a few suspect listings on Facebook Marketplace. Check the address to see if there’s permits or not and if not, screenshot the ad and it’s photos and send it off.

The best ones- the ones I live for- are ones that end up being rented and a lease is signed before the building inspectors can get there. I’ve had the inspectors follow up with me directly a number of times and give a brief synopsis of what was found and the actions being taken. Nothing better than the illegal landlord having to pay their new tenants accommodation elsewhere while the unit is configured to meet the applicable standards. A tough lesson.

The key if you’re going to report a suspected illegal apartment or rental I’ve found is this- email the details and indicate that you “have a significant concern for the safety of the occupants”. It was suggested to me that’s it’s almost impossible for the authorities to ignore or downplay the complaint at that point, as the municipality is essentially accepting the liability should anything happen.

If you’re going for bonus points, people who operate illegal rentals generally aren’t reporting the income either. CRA has a section on their page where you can pop in a few details and they can follow up.

#67 Those picketers are .... on 10.11.22 at 5:36 pm

amateurs. Still remember the rally at Empire Stadium in Vancouver in the early eighties where I saw a friend wearing a sandwwhich board that said “Bill Benett Sr. should have been sterilized.” Wish I would have had a camera with me.

#68 Shawn on 10.11.22 at 5:38 pm

Leveraged Pension Funds?

#43 Steve on 10.11.22 at 4:17 pm

BOE [Bank of England] has said they will not prop up their pensions who are leveraged to their neck, to chase return in “safe” bonds.

************************************

I think I first heard of pension funds using borrowed money maybe 10 years ago.

That baffled me. A pension fund follows strict asset allocation rules and usually has at least 40% in fixed income. So they are lenders.

I wondered why they would possible want to be borrowers at the same time.

If pensions funds actually borrowed money to invest in bonds then they were idiots for doing so.

Pensions funds normally hold bonds until maturity. They should have no need to sell GILTs (U.K. treasury bonds) into a fire sale. This is idiotic.

Shades of 2008 when these sort of forced sales based on mark to market cascaded. This is scary.

#69 Yukon Elvis on 10.11.22 at 5:40 pm

#53 Søren Angst on 10.11.22 at 4:38 pm
#36 Penny Henny

Big 5 banks, average yield just north of 5%

———————

It’s so their shareholders won’t bail.
+++++++++++
The Big Five pay only about 50ish% of their cash flow to support the dividends. The dividends are safe.

#70 Shawn on 10.11.22 at 5:41 pm

The market giveth and the market taketh away.

#71 AM in MN on 10.11.22 at 5:45 pm

#41 Faron on 10.11.22 at 4:06 pm

because I strictly avoid conspiracy nutters. They are almost as bad as trans-hating monsters,
————————————————–
Who is the conspiracy nutter here? Do you know of any “trans-hating monsters” who murder people? Any links to any stories of that happening?

Is it a conspiracy theory to think that it’s bad for society to allow children to be mutilated in the name of some bizarre leftist political fetish?

Plenty of suicides from regret filled young people who got sucked into the cult though, it isn’t a harmless fad.

Also, what happens to a conspiracy theory when it turns out to be true?

#72 Jungle Jim on 10.11.22 at 5:46 pm

I wish I knew about this . I would have shown up with my own sign.

Canada needs Debtor Prison

#73 The real Kip (Ret) on 10.11.22 at 5:51 pm

Two more puny interest rate increases will hardly stop this inflation and will instead leave them hopelessly too low. The incentive is still to borrow more free money.

#74 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 5:57 pm

#65 Faron on 10.11.22 at 5:26 pm

LOL, three things plus bonus:

1) Is really really being a mermaid anything like vibrantly vibrant coral reefs?

2) From your article

While the policy was established before Biden took office

. Pinning that on Biden is intellectual dishonesty. Your siren song wanes quickly.

3) Not a gender/sexuality blog

Bonus) For someone referencing Homer, I’m surprisedly surprised you don’t have a better grasp of what the body of a text is.

byeee

******

1) Pointing out an auto-fill error? Really?

2) Biden could have reversed that policy when he was letting men in women’s sports, dorms, washrooms, scholarships, shelters, and prisons but he didn’t.

3) You started it.

And enfin:

Bonus: What you consider the “body of text” is just wrong.

“The body text or body copy is the text forming the main content of a book, magazine, web page, or any other printed or digital work. This is as a contrast to both additional components such as headings, images, charts, footnotes etc. on each page, and also the pages of front matter that form the introduction to a book.”

https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Bo…

Body text – Wikipedia

Don’t start that which you’re not capable of finishing, Mr Scientist.

#75 Theory of Everything on 10.11.22 at 6:10 pm

So everyone in the photo is over their head and will be selling soon?

Well played by the organizer to get a list of customers.

#76 Reality is stark on 10.11.22 at 6:13 pm

There are going to be a lot of bankruptcies emanating from this real estate fiasco.
Don’t kid yourself.
The capitulation will be real.
Anyone foolish enough to purchase during the pandemic will feel the pain when the inevitable recession comes to fruition. This is about to get ugly.
But you were warned and you are about to grow up fast.
And broke.

#77 MD on 10.11.22 at 6:18 pm

I am sure none of the realtors informed them how things will be in a QT and increasing interest rate environment.

#78 Brian on 10.11.22 at 6:18 pm

Keep them coming Turner Nation! You have triggered the boring Faron. I don’t know why he’s triggered because he says he never reads them?

#79 Reality check on 10.11.22 at 6:21 pm

Just to remind everyone.

We are not in a new era of high interest rates. Current rates are in the normal range for long run average internet rates. Indeed by most measures they are still on the lower side of long run average rates.

And to boot current rates when adjusted for inflation are the most “negative” rates since the late 1970s.

So those waiting for rates to return to the record low rates of the past decade are likely out of luck.

#80 GratefulCanadian on 10.11.22 at 6:52 pm

The same situation (housing being expensive, a huge chunk of one’s income) is prevalent in most 1st world countries.

Based on recent history (say the last 20-30 years), it’s very unlikely that the Canadian government(s) will do anything significant _first_ – perhaps they will follow if other governments are showing some leadership (but there’s not much ambition abroad either).

Ironically, non-first-world countries make social progress while our people spend a vast, ever-increasing percentage of their income in housing that’s inferior to that of previous generations, and further away from the city…well done!

#81 Gaslight central on 10.11.22 at 6:55 pm

#71 AM in MN on 10.11.22 at 5:45 pm

#41 Faron on 10.11.22 at 4:06 pm

because I strictly avoid conspiracy nutters. They are almost as bad as trans-hating monsters,
————————————————–
Who is the conspiracy nutter here? Do you know of any “trans-hating monsters” who murder people? Any links to any stories of that happening?

Is it a conspiracy theory to think that it’s bad for society to allow children to be mutilated in the name of some bizarre leftist political fetish?

Plenty of suicides from regret filled young people who got sucked into the cult though, it isn’t a harmless fad.

Also, what happens to a conspiracy theory when it turns out to be true?

————————

They revise history at that point. Case in point, they now say that it was NEVER claimed to stop transmission even though that was the entire rationale for the passports and mandates. Point it out and get censored. They will never admit they were wrong about anything, ever. That’s how leftists roll.

#82 chris on 10.11.22 at 6:55 pm

************************
#60 Jack IP on 10.11.22 at 5:02 pm

Two news I red today:
1. Rosenberg thinks the equities market will bottom in 2024, because on average the markets stop going down 16 months after the last rate hike. What are your thoughts on that?
2. Average condo rents are about 20% yoy. Your beloved realtor pasalis says it’s due to immigration. Do you agree? You can’t just say “we’re doing it to ourselves” about the rental market, the rentals have to be rented by someone… We can’t just rent them to one another.
**************************
I own a couple of rental buildings in Toronto and from my experience .. I had a couple of bachelors that I put for rent one for Aug 01 and one for Oct 01 occupancy due to turnover. I advertised in many places including Kijiji and FB marketplace .. I got like 30 inquiries a day from foreign students … 99% of them being from India that where here already or coming soon in Canada on a student visa .. so from my experience there is pressure on the rental market from foreign students at least in Toronto

#83 Bill Ferguson on 10.11.22 at 6:56 pm

Good News! radio host, Harjinder Thind is giving me a live interview on ReD FM (89.1) at 8:20 PST tomorrow to counter what his guest, lawyer Honveer Randhawa (who was the protest organizer) had to say in an earlier interview.

Should be interesting. So, be sure to tune in!

#84 Quintilian on 10.11.22 at 7:08 pm

The protest is interesting on so many levels.

Financially… how strapped are they to be motivated enough to join the “movement”?

Who are these people, are they from the industry?

Or,are they a rent a protest crowd? ( maybe security guards taking an extra shift)?

Are they Canadian Retrumplicans?

Inquiring minds must know.

#85 WTF on 10.11.22 at 7:12 pm

With the expected impending culling of the RE Professionals, A lease return discounted price Beemer would be nice addition to my German car collection.

On a more serious note, the 25% USA portfolio content in the B+D portfolio has certainly proved to be serendipitous, attenuating the overall Can/USA/World stock market decline.

#86 Nonplused on 10.11.22 at 7:23 pm

I’m not sure I grasp the purpose of the protest. Are they demanding lower interest rates? For homeowners in particular? What about all the homeowners who don’t have a mortgage? What do they get?

It’s a good thing our fearless leader is in charge. A lesser man would have given up on trying to please all of the people all of the time a long time ago.

We don’t want higher interest rates, but we don’t want inflation. We don’t want higher taxes, but we don’t want less spending. We want to greenwash our energy, but we don’t want prices to rise. We want cheap labor, but not immigration. We want healthcare, but we don’t want to pay for it. We want to soak the rich, as long as that isn’t me (only people more rich than me should be soaked). We want union wages, but not high priced goods and services. We want electric cars, but not child labor. We want cheap tee-shirts, but not foreign factories. We want free speech, but not for other people. We want peace in Europe, but only on our terms. We want to vote, but only if our side wins. We want more housing, but no development.

Let’s face it; voters have the mental capacity of a 6-year-old. Thank goodness all the elections are rigged.

“If voting made a difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.”

#87 yvr_lurker on 10.11.22 at 7:25 pm

Within 24 hours we’ll be at the highest level for fixed-rate mortgages in 14 years.
——————

In record time of about 10 months we have gone from essentially the lowest 5 year mortgage rate ever to one that is at the highest level since 2008. 10 short months… This extreme rapid transition is rather unprecendented (except of course in the early 80s), and certainly indicates to me and many others how the BofC and other western countries have so poorly managed the economy and did not predict the severe rise in inflation earlier on when more gradual measures might have been adopted over a period of time….

#88 Don on 10.11.22 at 7:30 pm

DELETED

#89 conan on 10.11.22 at 7:34 pm

Canada is now sending 40 battle engineers to Poland to help train Ukrainian troops in digging mines, blowing up mines, etc.

Sounds/looks/walks to me that the fortification of the Polish border to Ukraine and Belarus has begun.

I am sure the markets will hate this.

#90 Smartalox on 10.11.22 at 7:49 pm

Re: variable rate mortgage triggers:

I was recently schooled on this topic.

Trigger rate: the interest rate where the fixed monthly payment on your variable rate mortgage no longer covers the cost of interest owed. If you don’t call the bank to adjust your monthly, then the portion of the principal and interest payments NOT covered by your fixed payments is added to the principal amount that you owe.

That can make for a rude surprise at renewal, as the amount that you need to renew your mortgage for, is close to (or more) than what you thought you owed on your home.

When the total amount that you owe is equal to the original amount of the mortgage, then you reach the trigger POINT.

The trigger point is when the bank takes action to increase your monthly payment to cover the principal and associated interest (at the elevated interest rate), before the end of your term.

If you have a prepayment clause, you should maximize those additional payments against the principal in order to avoid reaching the trigger point.

Garth: maybe now is a good time for a refresher on how to fit your mortgage into your RRSP?

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.11.22 at 7:51 pm

It’s absolutely amazing what Vancouver City Hall and the Province of BC is allowing to continue on the DTES. Every new vid I see shows a worsening dystopian calamity. I guess they feel if their policies don’t work, keep doing them.

IHtc9
Sometimes I consider a retirement out in Northern BC – or maybe just a part time landing pad. But the comments under Fartz’s linked Vid has many folks stating the problem is spreading all over the province.

What a damn waste.
——————
What’s your fascination with The FURZ?
He’s been wrong on so many issues, it’s not even funny.
Lately, his has been dragging down Vancouvers Mayor Stewart (whom he affectionally calls Stufart).
Turns out the Vancouver Firefighters pledged their support for the Mayor in the coming election.
That’s big.
CHeck FURZ’s track record on predictions.
Gas is going down again, Putins head is still screwed on firmly, etc.
Come to BC, and you will be amazed.
But stay away from negative FURZ.
F

#92 Flop… on 10.11.22 at 8:03 pm

#137 Jane24 on 10.11.22 at 7:58 am

Dearest Flop, it is your pompous friend Jane24 here. I love Crete, gorgeous place but it charges retired folk regular income taxes. Plus the banks there are bail in for the next crisis. No good but yes a 4 bed villa by the sea with a pool is about 450,000 cdn. I don’t want to pay taxes any more.
I love Italy and am here in the heel right now where my chuck of a medieval palace would set you back about 300,000 cdn. Living here is always complicated though as it is always right hand not knowing what the left hand is doing. Their retirement income tax deal though is just 7% on world wide income but just trying to get anything done would drive a Canadian girl insane.
I have high hopes for Portugal though and will report in when I return in late nov

/////////////////////////////////////

Hey Aunty Jane, yeah let us know how it goes.

I’ve seen some people recommend Tavira on here, I thought it was quaint, but probably too small for me, I recall going to Faro and Lagos down that way too.

Different strokes for different folks as they say, no one size fits all for that sort of thing.

You seem like you’ve got your heart set on Portugal and taxation plays a part, I’ve been right around the peninsula on 3 separate trips, I didn’t mind the Cadiz area when it came to sun and sand.

Some places just too many Brits, might as well be on the south coast of England.

My main memory of Marbella was a British Lady with a thick English accent yelling out, “Where’s all the posh shops, yeah?”

I did a post a while back that had this year top retirement places around the world, I’ll try and dig it up.

From memory, I thought it was Central American places that gave good tax breaks and really incentivized retirees to spend their time and money there.

Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, maybe, but there was definitely some European countries in the mix.

Do you think Uncle Crowdie is gonna get jealous now we’re besties…

M48BC

#93 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 8:12 pm

#71 AM in MN on 10.11.22 at 5:45 pm

#41 Faron on 10.11.22 at 4:06 pm

because I strictly avoid conspiracy nutters. They are almost as bad as trans-hating monsters,
————————————————–
Who is the conspiracy nutter here? Do you know of any “trans-hating monsters” who murder people? Any links to any stories of that happening?

Is it a conspiracy theory to think that it’s bad for society to allow children to be mutilated in the name of some bizarre leftist political fetish?

Plenty of suicides from regret filled young people who got sucked into the cult though, it isn’t a harmless fad.

Also, what happens to a conspiracy theory when it turns out to be true?

************

Yep. I’ve done my due diligence because as a left of centre lesbian, this creepy, pedo-adjacent-if-not-outright-pedophilic ideology denies my sex-based rights, as well as my same-sex attracted rights.

I’m confident of where the ‘right side of history’ will fall, and I’m immune to being called names by misogynists and homophobes for defending my sex and orientation.

I’ll debate anyone on this ideology, anywhere, anytime. I know where to find and read the retracted studies, and how to spot the fraudulent, ideologically driven citations that the American, profit-driven medical system uses as justification.

I have lost more faith in medicine due to this exercise than I care to remember. It’s been devastating to discover who and what is behind this top-down movement and how far it will go to get at kids.

Faron, a true scientist constantly interrogates what they think they know to be true, and would read what pioneering academics and clinicians in this field have to say, not just what activists are pushing.

James Kantor
Ray Blanchard
Anne Lawrence
Michael Biggs
Leor Sapir
Colin Wright
Emma Hilton
Ken Zucker

Google them or check out their Twitter feeds.

Take a walk on the wild side and read traditionally right wing sources, because they’re the only outlets that will platform critics of gender ideology.

Read Reduxx.info, a feminist news outlet, to see the grotty underbelly of the gender unicorn.

That’s what a real scientist would do. What you’ll do is anyone’s guess.

#94 A01 on 10.11.22 at 8:14 pm

Great article garth, more pain to come for sure. Appreciate the daily blog, look forward to reading it every day.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 8:15 pm

@#67 Those people
“Still remember the rally at Empire Stadium in Vancouver in the early eighties where I saw a friend wearing a sandwwhich board that said “Bill Benett Sr. should have been sterilized.” ”

+++
I remember Expo86 and Premier Bill Bennet said, “Anyone who doesn’t want this Expo is a bad British Columbian.”

The first day Expo86 opened a woman was escorted from the Expo site because her T-shirt said,
” I’m a bad British Columbian.”

It made the 6pm news.

#96 Young Ralph on 10.11.22 at 8:17 pm

#7 Armpit on 10.11.22 at 1:54 pm
….and who wants to be a landlord????

https://globalnews.ca/news/9189164/tenants-move-out-hamilton-home-many-dogs-cats-remain/

Having been a Landlord for about 20 years and having experienced just about every conceivable problem imaginable I found it a great learning experience when it came to understanding human nature. Not one I wish to repeat. I often thought anyone who wishes to run for public office would greatly benefit from the LL experience…especially when making unrealistic promises.

#97 BC Doc on 10.11.22 at 8:19 pm

Tough times for borrowers in the US too:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/mortgage-rate-is-over-7percent-harder-to-qualify-for-loan.html

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 8:21 pm

@#72 Jay Jay
“Canada needs Debtor Prison”

++++
Pffft.
Canada doesnt hold stabbers in jail for more than an hour…

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjNiKi2tdn6AhUoMzQIHSvbD_oQFnoECBAQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fvpd.ca%2Fnews%2F2022%2F09%2F06%2Fteen-couple-faces-charges-in-labour-day-stabbing%2F&usg=AOvVaw1MTogito79Rxj3n1cKA11d

The two teens that carved this guy up.
Were released the same day.

Municipal election in less than a week.

#99 DonCarlos on 10.11.22 at 8:32 pm

#86 Nonplussed – I feel like over the last 10 years or so our elections became more or less on par with student council elections: “Free candy dispensers, better cafeteria menu, longer breaks, 4 day school week!” – fringe issues and dreams replacing pragmatic, achievable plans on how to make Canada a better country over the next term.

Sell now, buy later? No thanks. I’m subscribing to hold forever, buy more later. I saw this writing on the wall years ago. Mid 40s and I will be mortgage free after my 1.69% fixed rate ends. Mortgage is approximately 4% of our household income and we have a savings/investment rate of about 20% of our household income, investing hugely in what is maybe not the bottom of the market, but damn close and I’ll be riding the curve back up. Our retirements are already saved for so we’re just focused on acquiring fire sale assets.

I’m not here to gloat about it, rather to say that being now in this boat took years of hard work, sacrifice and living well below our means. I feel like we’re at an inflection point where people can decide to throw their hands up in the air and give up, or plan on how they can come out of this thing in a much better place financially, socially, emotionally, health-wise. I hope everyone ends up finding that solution and wish them the necessary willpower and dedication to achieve it.

And if you were modest, you’d be perfect. – Garth

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 8:35 pm

@#92 Nephew Floppie
“Do you think Uncle Crowdie is gonna get jealous now we’re besties…”
+++
Nah.
As Tony Montana would say,
“Fly pelican fly….”
Just think of me as the grumpy Uncle and Ponzie as the crazy Uncle.

#101 Ponnaps on 10.11.22 at 8:54 pm

DELETED

#102 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.11.22 at 9:00 pm

156 Who can afford 2.1 kids these days on 10.11.22 at 11:19 am
#74 Pontious Pilotus
——————-
Off the top, I’d say you should not have any children.
From my experience I can say that simple people produce the most well adjusted and “normal” offsprings.
Highly strung Over thinkers don’t.

————-
Thanks for your productive answer. I’m guessing you’re one of those “simple” people that equates thinking ahead with being high strung. The world will never run out of simple people like you.
—————————-
Sorry to break it to you, but parenthood is not a science project.
It’s like opening a “box of chocolates”.
You’ll never know what you’ll get.
I raised 4 kids.
All of them different.
I’ll tried hard to mold them in my image.
Looking back, I’m glad I was not successful.
Acceptance and love, is the key.
Not piano lessons and a big house.

#103 Flop… on 10.11.22 at 9:07 pm

Aunty Jane, here’s the article I was referring to.

Top 25 rankings for retirement around the world.

Yep, Portugal was number one in Europe.

From the article

“5. Portugal

Falling down the rankings this year, Portugal is still the premier destination in Europe for expat retirees and tops the 2021 index for housing – accommodation in the country is affordable and of a high standard – and climate. Non-EU citizens can obtain residency on the proviso they show evidence of a regular income and valid health insurance.”

I’ll put another one up from over that way, Malta, I’ve never been there.

9. Malta
Obtaining residency in English-speaking Malta is a relative walk in the park. Non-EU retirees simply have to apply on an annual basis and pay a small fee for the privilege. The Southern Mediterranean nation doesn’t disappoint with retirees lauding its climate, culture, cuisine, beaches, landscapes, healthcare and cost of living, which is lower than many other countries in Europe.

Spain, not far behind at 11.

I’m not sure if you know this, so I’ll pass it on.

All is not well in some parts of Italy, tourist wise, one region is currently reimbursing train fares just to entice people there.

If your goal is just to get further away from Dolce, what’s wrong with Taormina….

M48BC

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/top-countries-to-retire-to-revealed/ss-BB1euiAX

#104 IHCTD9 on 10.11.22 at 9:26 pm

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.11.22 at 7:51 pm
It’s absolutely amazing what Vancouver City Hall and the Province of BC is allowing to continue on the DTES. Every new vid I see shows a worsening dystopian calamity. I guess they feel if their policies don’t work, keep doing them.

IHtc9
Sometimes I consider a retirement out in Northern BC – or maybe just a part time landing pad. But the comments under Fartz’s linked Vid has many folks stating the problem is spreading all over the province.

What a damn waste.
——————
What’s your fascination with The FURZ?
He’s been wrong on so many issues, it’s not even funny.
Lately, his has been dragging down Vancouvers Mayor Stewart (whom he affectionally calls Stufart).
Turns out the Vancouver Firefighters pledged their support for the Mayor in the coming election.
That’s big.
CHeck FURZ’s track record on predictions.
Gas is going down again, Putins head is still screwed on firmly, etc.
Come to BC, and you will be amazed.
But stay away from negative FURZ.
F
——-

Well, IIRC, that post was in reply to old boot. Fartz’s gas price call ain’t wrong yet, and he’s damn right regarding the degenerate hell hole the DTES is. Putin still may drink a glass of wine he should have skipped. IMHO, he’s definitely entering the danger zone.

BC is beautiful, but in many ways, it’s also completely ******. That’s why a part time residence is starting to make more sense than a full time move. I can get a junker in PR for under 200K, and I got the ability to patch it up. That way I don’t need to deal with BC’s $h!t on a full time basis. Head on over when it’s -25 here, do some fishing and exploring, then hightail it back to Ontario.

#105 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 9:27 pm

#91 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.11.22 at 7:51 pm

It’s absolutely amazing what Vancouver City Hall and the Province of BC is allowing to continue on the DTES. Every new vid I see shows a worsening dystopian calamity. I guess they feel if their policies don’t work, keep doing them.

IHtc9
Sometimes I consider a retirement out in Northern BC – or maybe just a part time landing pad. But the comments under Fartz’s linked Vid has many folks stating the problem is spreading all over the province.

What a damn waste.
——————
What’s your fascination with The FURZ?
He’s been wrong on so many issues, it’s not even funny.
Lately, his has been dragging down Vancouvers Mayor Stewart (whom he affectionally calls Stufart).
Turns out the Vancouver Firefighters pledged their support for the Mayor in the coming election.
That’s big.
CHeck FURZ’s track record on predictions.
Gas is going down again, Putins head is still screwed on firmly, etc.
Come to BC, and you will be amazed.
But stay away from negative FURZ.
F

*********

The chaos in the DTES is job security for the VFD. Doing the work paramedics should be doing for only 30% more pay than paramedics earn, plus overtime.

No one should celebrate that their property taxes are paying for healthcare, a provincial responsibility

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 9:33 pm

30 convictions for violent crimes and this prolific offender is released after spending the Thanksgiving weekend in jail.

https://globalnews.ca/news/9191219/suspect-random-attack-vancouver-granted-bail/

If the Federal Conservatives don’t make Urban crime a major platform in the next election.
They deserve to lose.

#107 barnz0rz on 10.11.22 at 9:40 pm

How many people bought a home during COVID and really thought that they wouldn’t be renewing at a higher rate?

Like really?

I did, and I knew there was no way I’d be getting that rate on my 2nd term.

#108 Steven Rowlandson on 10.11.22 at 9:51 pm

#52 that $675,000 home would be expensive at 1/10th the price and as it is at the moment to buy it under the traditional 3years pay rule a buyer would have to earn $225,000 per year and have a 25% down payment.
As a basic starter home such a property is genocidally overpriced for someone likely to be making $15,000 to $30,000 per year. Canadian employers are not in the business of giving raises to their employees so that they can pander to the greed of real estate profiteers.
Time to pack up the monopoly game and toss it in the trash where it belongs.

#109 I don't know on 10.11.22 at 9:52 pm

#44 epic bear on 10.11.22 at 4:24 pm

The stock market is forward looking by about 6-12 months. By the time the average person feels the recession, the market will have long recovered.

The time to buy is when pessimism is highest, which would be now. Every MSM article is about interest rates, war, inflation, and the coming recession. As usual, the greedy will be blindsided by the doom and gloom and miss the bottom as they sit in depreciating cash (junk).

Then they will whine and complain about anything and everything like usual.

Real estate is a different animal. Everyone has to live somewhere, and rents aren’t cheap. The default desire for the average human is to own real estate as soon as they can. That will never change. The moment the market gets a whiff of rate hikes pausing (or rates declining again) up she goes.

The thing is central banks talk tough about inflation, but they really don’t mind it. They fear deflation above all. Inflation means additional government revenue, continued economic activity, and reduction of debt loads over time. The moment inflation crests and comes down (even if it’s way above the mandated magical 2%), you can bet rate hikes will pause, and eventually rates will fall again. The stock market is fixated like a laser for this currently…and it’s coming soon.

IDK

#110 Dogman01 on 10.11.22 at 9:52 pm

China and Russia ‘at war with the West’: Canada’s chief of defence staff

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIWZNG9sQj4

Our ruling class has spend the last few decades Globalizing and hollowing out our economy to benefit these bad actors whom have had incompatible values.

Kill our domestic energy industry so Russia can thrive? (or OPEC)
Destroy our domestic Industrial capacity so China can thrive?

Was this simply so our elite could become obscenely rich. Destroy their own society and help these bad actors…

“But they make the weather and then they stand in the rain and say, ‘Shit, it’s raining!”

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 9:57 pm

Poor Ponzie.
Over did his meds again.
Someone call the Vancouver Fire Dept Union.
They’re the best.
They endorsed the worst Mayor on Vancouver’s history.
Methinks kennedy stewrat called in some Huge NDP favours for that one.

Ken Sim by a landslide Ponzie.
Count on it.

#112 Flop… on 10.11.22 at 9:59 pm

So I get a brown envelope in the mail today.

B.C climate action tax credit.

Say what?

They gave me a cheque for $190.

I don’t want to put it in the bank.

Last time I did that with my two CRB payments after I lost my contracts because of Covid, the mongrels had the cheek to ask for it back.

Maybe I will phone them, and ask them are they sure they’re not going accuse me of ripping off the system, with a payment I never asked for sometime next year…

M48BC

#113 DJT on 10.11.22 at 10:12 pm

If Alberta separates like Donbas will Trudeau bomb them too?
Asking for some friends.

#114 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 10:13 pm

#39 the Jaguar on 10.11.22 at 3:50 pm

Enlarge the group protest photo and be prepared to laugh your arse off at the signs. Hopeless.

‘Homeowners are not stupid”! ( oh yes they are, lol!)

“Government is playing politics”! (gee, what was your first clue?)

“Stop discriminating against home owners”! ( sorry, but Mr. Inflation doesn’t know or care where you live..).

Talk about amateur hour. Maybe they should try ‘ bra-burning’. Or at least read Old Boot’s post about the ‘ weaponization of empathy’ and it’s dangers……

( a thoughtful and enlightening post).

***********

Cheers.

I went into emergency pre-hospital care as a hippy kid from the Gulf Islands, and quickly received a crash course in psychiatry/psychology.

My community (and family) growing up included drug addicts, sex offenders, convicted pedophiles, murderers, transvestites, (amongst other interesting characters) so I was hardly sheltered from reality, but working in Skids was truly an education in aberrant psychology.

Yes, there are many unfortunate people with tragic life stories and debilitating psychiatric illnesses like schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, but there are almost as many predators with Cluster B disorders and serious criminal records who victimize and use the former as camouflage to extract resources from society.

Riverview wasn’t the only institution emptied into the DTES; it also has a huge number of serious criminals, many of whom were denied parole (it happens, or used to) and therefore aren’t under any continuing conditions or supervision after their release.

We have abandoned defenseless, traumatized, harmless, broken people to their addictions, and to the predators who roam freely amongst them.

It’s indefensible.

#115 Flipflopman on 10.11.22 at 10:20 pm

Garth,

Would be good to have an article on expatriating, in terms of locations, investments, healthcare etc. Many mentioning Portugal, Southern Europeetc but the winters are cold and rainy. Forget the flipflops….Cap Verde, Senegal, Canaries and SE Asia seem like better options at least for climate

#116 Dr V on 10.11.22 at 10:49 pm

112 Flop

“They gave me a cheque for $190.”
———————————————–

Not to brag, but mine is bigger than yours.

Apparently Lily and I are of “low or modest income”, living quietly amongst the masses…..

#117 Doug in London on 10.11.22 at 10:49 pm

So, it appears the government is damned if they do take action to reduce inflation and damned if they don’t. I mean really, didn’t anyone see that to bring inflation down that interest rates, at such historically low rates, would have to go up?

#118 DON on 10.11.22 at 11:31 pm

#114 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 10:13 pm
#39 the Jaguar on 10.11.22 at 3:50 pm

Enlarge the group protest photo and be prepared to laugh your arse off at the signs. Hopeless.

‘Homeowners are not stupid”! ( oh yes they are, lol!)

“Government is playing politics”! (gee, what was your first clue?)

“Stop discriminating against home owners”! ( sorry, but Mr. Inflation doesn’t know or care where you live..).

Talk about amateur hour. Maybe they should try ‘ bra-burning’. Or at least read Old Boot’s post about the ‘ weaponization of empathy’ and it’s dangers……

( a thoughtful and enlightening post).

***********

Cheers.

I went into emergency pre-hospital care as a hippy kid from the Gulf Islands, and quickly received a crash course in psychiatry/psychology.

My community (and family) growing up included drug addicts, sex offenders, convicted pedophiles, murderers, transvestites, (amongst other interesting characters) so I was hardly sheltered from reality, but working in Skids was truly an education in aberrant psychology.

Yes, there are many unfortunate people with tragic life stories and debilitating psychiatric illnesses like schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, but there are almost as many predators with Cluster B disorders and serious criminal records who victimize and use the former as camouflage to extract resources from society.

Riverview wasn’t the only institution emptied into the DTES; it also has a huge number of serious criminals, many of whom were denied parole (it happens, or used to) and therefore aren’t under any continuing conditions or supervision after their release.

We have abandoned defenseless, traumatized, harmless, broken people to their addictions, and to the predators who roam freely amongst them.

It’s indefensible.

***********
Agreed!

Nicely stated.

#119 IHCTD9 on 10.11.22 at 11:52 pm

#112 Flop… on 10.11.22 at 9:59 pm
So I get a brown envelope in the mail today.

B.C climate action tax credit.

Say what?

They gave me a cheque for $190.

I don’t want to put it in the bank.

Last time I did that with my two CRB payments after I lost my contracts because of Covid, the mongrels had the cheek to ask for it back.

Maybe I will phone them, and ask them are they sure they’re not going accuse me of ripping off the system, with a payment I never asked for sometime next year…

M48BC
——-

Just stuff it in the bank account Flop. That’s what I do. You can save it up for your retirement house. I’m saving my handouts for the local YAMAHA dealership. Japan needs all the financial help it can get.

#120 Charles on 10.11.22 at 11:56 pm

Your photo of the “protest” tells its own story, examine it and the protestors themselves. This is not a protest , it is a political signal from that very powerful special interest vote bloc. It’s certainly not a diverse, inclusive, multi-gendered. A specific group are saying “ do something for us or our group will pull our support”.

There are many instantly identifiable ethnic origin seats at play in Surrey and more than a few very nervous incumbent Liberals of that very same ethic special interest. This is a photo about immigration power politics.

And yes , blah blah blah the other things you said are correct. But, the vast majority of us don’t live in a bubble wearing blinders. Can you be more fulsome in the future?

Why not a mention of Albertas new firebrand Premier who’s vowed to take Trudeaus Covid fascism out to the trash and reneging the dialogue based on truth, liberty and freedoms reestablished.

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.11.22 at 11:58 pm

#114 Old worn out boot
We have abandoned defenseless, traumatized, harmless, broken people to their addictions, and to the predators who roam freely amongst them.
—————————
So, what’s your solution?

#122 Quintilian on 10.12.22 at 12:05 am

#109 I don’t know on 10.11.22 at 9:52 pm

” The moment the market gets a whiff of rate hikes pausing (or rates declining again) up she goes.”

You state that with conviction.
Obviously, you have never heard of housing bubbles before and how they always end.

#123 45north on 10.12.22 at 12:15 am

ElGato #88 Michael in-north-york on 10.10.22 at 8:37 pm
The only quick solution is that Ontario, Quebec, B.C. provincial governments enter the rental market, brush the bylaws, and build a massive amount of rental units in Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Vancouver.

governments enter the rental market! What the toilet is plugged and you call the government line! You don’t pay the rent, and the civil service is going to deal with it! A guy pulls his transmission and tries to fix it in the garage, and the civil service is going to deal with it. You going to pay standard civil service rates. It would be too easy to compare operating costs between government owned and private owned. Never going to happen.

#124 DON on 10.12.22 at 12:32 am

#86 Nonplused on 10.11.22 at 7:23 pm
I’m not sure I grasp the purpose of the protest. Are they demanding lower interest rates? For homeowners in particular? What about all the homeowners who don’t have a mortgage? What do they get?

It’s a good thing our fearless leader is in charge. A lesser man would have given up on trying to please all of the people all of the time a long time ago.

We don’t want higher interest rates, but we don’t want inflation. We don’t want higher taxes, but we don’t want less spending. We want to greenwash our energy, but we don’t want prices to rise. We want cheap labor, but not immigration. We want healthcare, but we don’t want to pay for it. We want to soak the rich, as long as that isn’t me (only people more rich than me should be soaked). We want union wages, but not high priced goods and services. We want electric cars, but not child labor. We want cheap tee-shirts, but not foreign factories. We want free speech, but not for other people. We want peace in Europe, but only on our terms. We want to vote, but only if our side wins. We want more housing, but no development.

Let’s face it; voters have the mental capacity of a 6-year-old. Thank goodness all the elections are rigged.

“If voting made a difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.”

********

I want the freedom to be told the truth, but I don’t want to hear it.

#125 TheDood on 10.12.22 at 12:40 am

Did that protest actually happen? Wow, I live in the LM and didn’t hear about it until reading the blog. It makes you wonder how the species will survive into the future.

#126 Faron on 10.12.22 at 2:43 am

#104 IHCTD9 on 10.11.22 at 9:26 pm

I bet you’d last about 18 months in Rupert depending on what time of year you move there.

Have we talked about the dry season? No?

Oh yeah, that’s because there isn’t one.

#127 Faron on 10.12.22 at 2:45 am

#93 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 8:12 pm
#71 AM in MN on 10.11.22 at 5:45 pm
#41 Faron on 10.11.22 at 4:06 pm

Hate to interrupt your screed, but I’d like to remind you that this isn’t a gender, sex, or sexuality blog.

#128 Gravy Train on 10.12.22 at 6:12 am

#109 I don’t know on 10.11.22 at 9:52 pm
[…]As usual, the greedy will be blindsided by the doom and gloom and miss the bottom as they sit in depreciating cash (junk).[…]

No, you’ve described the fearful. The greedy will be buying up stock and/or index fund units. Ask Warren Buffett for further details. :)

#129 epic bear on 10.12.22 at 8:03 am

#109 I don’t know on 10.11.22 at 9:52 pm
The time to buy is when pessimism is highest, which would be now.
________________________________

not even remotely close.

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.12.22 at 8:08 am

@#121 Ponzie’s Proposals
“So, what’s your solution?”

+++
We defer to you oh wise one.
Lest we annoy thee and once again incur your acid tipped wrath and scorn.

#131 Steven Rowlandson on 10.12.22 at 9:30 am

“It seems Canadians – despite being in one of the most bizarrely-priced real estate markets on the planet – are not yet revolting.”

That turns out not to be the case, I boycott the real estate market regularly because I find that the price is revolting and many comments by Canadians are deleted because our host finds them to be revolting.
Then there are all kinds of things I find to be revolting which I tend to disapprove of online….
You cannot be a man good or bad and avoid being a Judge. It is part of being human like it or not.

#132 The Original Jake on 10.12.22 at 9:31 am

“Simple advice. Sell now. Buy later”

I sold my parent’s home (GTA) in June after it became vacant earlier this year. It has since dropped by another 10% at least. Won’t be buying any real estate until 2014 price levels return. It may take a couple of years though. As Garth wrote, sellers will soon wake up to the new reality of higher rates and lower house prices.

Meanwhile, I have a cousin who put their parent’s home on the market in July. Bids were all lowballs, so they have since taken it off waiting for the pop next Spring. Unfortunately, I think they will have to take a lower offer than this summer.

#133 Old Boot on 10.12.22 at 10:16 am

#127 Faron on 10.12.22 at 2:45 am

#93 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 8:12 pm
#71 AM in MN on 10.11.22 at 5:45 pm
#41 Faron on 10.11.22 at 4:06 pm

Hate to interrupt your screed, but I’d like to remind you that this isn’t a gender, sex, or sexuality blog.

**********
And isn’t that fortunate for you?

I special in embarrassing PhD holders who insist on defending it with what they purport to be facts.

#134 Observer on 10.12.22 at 10:41 am

#120 Charles on 10.11.22 at 11:56 pm

Why not a mention of Albertas new firebrand Premier who’s vowed to take Trudeaus Covid fascism out to the trash and reneging the dialogue based on truth, liberty and freedoms reestablished.

∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧∧

You mean the “firebrand Premier” who on her first day in office, called unvaxxed people the ‘most discriminated against group’ she’s ever seen?

She sounds really smart. /s

#135 Shawn on 10.12.22 at 10:59 am

The Key Economic Question of our Age

Okay, so we know that ultra low, even negative interest rates drove asset prices to their recent highs. (Homes, stocks, existing long term bonds, commercial real estate, land…)

And we know Central Banks had a huge role in this.

Let’s put the blame for ultra low short term rates on the central banks.

But what about long term rates. Why did the 30 year U.S. treasury yield fall as low as 1%?

In part we can still blame central banks who purchased those bonds.

But what about all the pension funds, insurance companies, retail bond funds and other institutional investors who eagerly bought those bonds. They effectively were willing to loan 30 year money at ridiculously low rates and this went on for years.

The economic question of our age is WHY? Was there something about western demographic trends that lowered the demand for real (as opposed to nominal) infrastructure investments? Was it globalization and cheap Asian labour? Was it the software revolution?

We need to know the reason and to understand if the basic drivers of low long-term rates still exist. If so, we can expect rates not to continue higher. To maybe even retreat.

Your Nobel prize in Economics may await you in say 2025 if you can truly and convincingly answer this question and use it to predict where we go next.

#136 Mehling on 10.12.22 at 11:04 am

“Trudeau trails Tory leader as most trusted inflation fighter”

“Poilievre has a two-to-one lead over Trudeau with men on the issue, while the prime minister holds a small but statistically-insignificant edge among women. The Conservative leader leads Trudeau in every region of the country except Quebec, and among Canadians under the age of 54. ”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-trails-tory-leader-as-most-trusted-inflation-fighter-1.1831407

#137 DON on 10.12.22 at 11:28 am

#121 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.11.22 at 11:58 pm
#114 Old worn out boot
We have abandoned defenseless, traumatized, harmless, broken people to their addictions, and to the predators who roam freely amongst them.
—————————
So, what’s your solution?

********
Good question…will have to think about this one…maybe we should revisit the past with a dash of the future…but it will take a community approach for sure.

#138 Wrk.dover on 10.12.22 at 11:38 am

#126 Faron on 10.12.22 at 2:43 am
#104 IHCTD9 on 10.11.22 at 9:26 pm

I bet you’d last about 18 months in Rupert depending on what time of year you move there.

Have we talked about the dry season? No?

Oh yeah, that’s because there isn’t one.
___________________________

What about the semi-annual 5000km each way commute dragging all of the toys back and forth behind the wood gasifier powered eight foot bed truck?

Those toys would make it hard to load up on southern priced goods, on the way up through sales tax free Ab. to where stuff has a premium price tag.

#139 Dharma Bum on 10.12.22 at 11:46 am

#8 Timmy

Lol, I see a sign saying “homeowners are not stupid” Well, some are. What did those of them think when they bought houses when interest rates were at their lowest point in their entire lives? That rates would stay that low?
——————————————————————————————————-

If you have a large mortgage YOU ARE NOT A HOMEOWNER!

You are a vulnerable borrower.

The size of your debt is inversely proportional to the level of your intelligence.

No Debt = Genius
Small Debt = Smart
Large Debt = Not so smart
Huge Debt = Idiot

People who live in homes with minimal equity where the bank holds the majority of the value in that home are NOT homeowners.

They are glorified squatters.

As the value of that home diminishes to the point that the equity disappears and it is worth less that the value of the loan, the bank owns the home, not those who are essentially squatting in it.

Low interest rates were a criminal scam.

Suckers were lured in.

If you have a very small and manageable mortgage, or are free and clear, then you are a homeowner.

Otherwise, you are a debt laden squatter living on borrowed time (and money).

#140 Dave on 10.12.22 at 12:06 pm

News1130 in Vancouver

BC Real Estate board reports 46% drop in sales but prices have increased slightly

#141 under the radar on 10.12.22 at 12:28 pm

#88 Michael in-north-york on 10.10.22 at 8:37 pm
The only quick solution is that Ontario, Quebec, B.C. provincial governments enter the rental market, brush the bylaws, and build a massive amount of rental units in Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Vancouver.

Toronto Community Housing – Government run housing. Likely the worst landlord in the Country , miles of work orders, billions in unfunded repairs . Bad Idea.

#142 Sail Away on 10.12.22 at 12:38 pm

Well, I’ve bought more index today. This year has been quite an exercise in chasing markets downhill…

Down, down, down it goes and where it stops, nobody knows. But it will. At least our US portfolio has gained +8% in exchange strength, utilities have been ok, and arbitrage is a bright spot.

#143 Old Boot on 10.12.22 at 12:43 pm

As Ross from Friends sagely advised:

Pivot!

Oil: Dictating geopolitical reality like a girl boss.

“Freeland mentioned the European Union’s willingness to allow its vaccine manufacturers to honour existing contracts with non-European allies, including Canada, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Canada remembers, she said. Canada must and will show similar generosity in fast-tracking, for example, the energy and mining projects our allies need to heat their homes and to manufacture electric vehicles.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-putin-us-1.6613523

#144 Don Guillermo on 10.12.22 at 12:59 pm

Seems we’re into another round of Faron’s Daily Fight Club. It reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python’s Holy Grail. Come back and fight like a man. “Tis but a flesh wound”.

https://images.app.goo.gl/MKYETaCqMFNHjS818

#145 Brian on 10.12.22 at 1:14 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine terrier)

#146 Prince Polo on 10.12.22 at 1:19 pm

#30 Søren Angst on 10.06.22 at 3:30 pm
#19 Prince Polo
Sympathetic. But obliterating the Cartel means you will have obliterated Cdn Wealth along with it in the meantime.
Pyrrhic Victory.
Well, except for the Renters and plenty of them:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220921/mc-b003-eng.htm
Over half the condos in DT Trauma and YVR are rented. A World of Hurt for the Specuvestor cum laude Landlords coming with rising rates, mortgage renewals.

Pardon my tardiness – am playing catch-up on comments. My point isn’t to obliterate the real estate industry. ‘Twas simply to suggest it should have the same type of regulation/credentialing as an investment fiduciary would.

Instead, we get shysters doing bogus math and pushing many beyond the brink of financial suicide, without any real consequences for the snake oil being peddled.

#147 Jenn on 10.12.22 at 1:28 pm

People are truly addicted to housing to the point if they find out you rent, they think less of you. Well, as a renter, these days I take a dim view of those who decided to bite off way the hell more than they could chew, and did so based on a belief interest rates couldn’t rise.
I cannot believe how many people believed this. I was a child when they last shot up, but I read things, I pay attention and I listen. It was always clear the rates would go up. I had no idea they’d shoot this fast, but I still saw the rise coming a mile away.
It ought to have been a foregone conclusion to anyone, though I suppose not to those basing their entire life plan and financial wellbeing around historically low rates.
I suppose it’s the same sort of thinking that makes a person spend over a million dollars to move to the country because they can no longer envision a world not in lockdown. I guess I just never properly appreciated how many people out there are (very) bad at understanding the nature of *temporary* emergency measures.
Well, all that there is for this issue is a big price correction. There’s nothing else to be done. It’s gonna hurt. People will lose a lot, some more than others. It’s a hard lesson, but sometimes you really gotta look at the (ridiculous) price and not just today’s carrying costs.

#148 Midnight's on 10.12.22 at 3:09 pm

You have to love it when evil plans done in the dark are finally brought into the light (King Jesus).

CCP Opens Police Department in the US; COVID-19 Vaccine Autopsy Reports Hidden From Public

Pfizer Exec Concedes COVID-19 Vaccine Was Never Tested on Preventing Transmission

I’m glad that’s not on my soul, telling people they had to get the shot etc.
https://ozva.net/top-global-news/healthcare/pfizer-exec-concedes-covid-19-vaccine-was-never-tested-on-preventing-transmission/

#149 jess on 10.12.22 at 3:20 pm

some are already going to sue the SEC!

“The question will really be how far is this commission going to go to protect investors?”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/12/wall-street-gary-gensler-sec-00061245

https://bettermarkets.org/newsroom/wall-streets-lawbreaking-continues-as-six-biggest-banks-rack-up-another-billion-dollars-in-fines-in-just-over-a-year/

#150 DON on 10.12.22 at 3:23 pm

#122 Quintilian on 10.12.22 at 12:05 am
#109 I don’t know on 10.11.22 at 9:52 pm

” The moment the market gets a whiff of rate hikes pausing (or rates declining again) up she goes.”

You state that with conviction.
Obviously, you have never heard of housing bubbles before and how they always end.

************
I tried saying Beetlejuice 3 times but it didn’t work.

Remember ‘I will find out’ has a peer group that thinks real estate will go up forever don’t cha know.

#151 DON on 10.12.22 at 3:31 pm

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 9:57 pm
Poor Ponzie.
Over did his meds again.
Someone call the Vancouver Fire Dept Union.
They’re the best.
They endorsed the worst Mayor on Vancouver’s history.
Methinks kennedy stewrat called in some Huge NDP favours for that one.

Ken Sim by a landslide Ponzie.
Count on it.

**********
I thought of you instantly while at lunch when I read the headline about the fire fighters while in Burger King…no more whopper wednesday deals… had to get the burger and fries without the 3 dollar pop to stay un $10 bucks after walking out of Alibaba’s where they were going to charge $13.58 for two slices of pieces that in May I could get for $6.50.

Time to start packing a lunch again.

#152 Midnight’s on 10.12.22 at 3:40 pm

#7 Armpit on 10.11.22 at 1:54 pm

Lol, best you stay on the other side of the fence (non business) Armpit. As the quote goes the struggle makes the man. Now, as I say, make the numbers dance. Let say they bought it in 2010. Watch the numbers dance into 2022.
Smooth seas never made a skilled sailor.

#153 Faron on 10.12.22 at 4:04 pm

#133 Old Boot on 10.12.22 at 10:16 am
#127 Faron on 10.12.22 at 2:45 am
#93 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 8:12 pm
#71 AM in MN on 10.11.22 at 5:45 pm
#41 Faron on 10.11.22 at 4:06 pm

Hate to interrupt your screed, but I’d like to remind you that this isn’t a gender, sex, or sexuality blog.

**********
And isn’t that fortunate for you?

I special in embarrassing PhD holders who insist on defending it with what they purport to be facts.

I special

LOL, I’ll say.

Anyhow, I classify it as respectful of our host.

I took a gander at some of your whackadoodle refs and that reduxx site (just an endless stream of trans hatred framed as feminism — TERF central). WOW. You have clearly immersed yourself deep in one side of the eqn owing to your inflamed ideology, some bizarre fear you have that you are framing as “protecting our children”.

No. just no. You are about as far from the science/theory or whatever as the climate deniers are. The appropriate response is starving them/you of engagement.

#154 jess on 10.12.22 at 4:05 pm

another stand off private equity

North American Partners in Anesthesia is the nation’s largest anesthesia staffing company, employing 6,000 clinicians at 500 facilities in 21 states. The company is owned by two well-heeled private-equity firms, American Securities of New York City and Leonard Green & Partners in Los Angeles. Four of NAPA’s nine directors are private-equity executives.

… bought up physician practices in anesthesiology, emergency medicine and dermatology, research shows. A study of private-equity buyouts of physician practices published in JAMA Network in February 2020 found that anesthesiology practices were the focus of almost 20% of those buyouts, the highest percentage of deals involving a single specialty. Emergency medicine practices accounted for 12% of the takeovers.

.https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/anesthesiologist-putting-may-work-private-equity-firm-rcna51071

..”the anesthesiology department at the Cooperman Barnabas Medical Center in Livingston, New Jersey, was in crisis. For months, the outside staffing company overseeing the department had slashed staff to what the 600-bed hospital’s leaders considered dangerous levels. In the first six months of 2022, hospital officials recorded 286 adverse events that resulted from chronic under staffing, according to a lawsuit.”

The nonprofit, acute care hospital then formed a new anesthesiology department of its own, hiring the clinicians who had previously worked for NAPA, and, in July, filed a lawsuit against NAPA. The company’s severe under staffing put its own profits ahead of the hospital’s patients, Cooperman Barnabas alleged, adding that the company’s “entire business structure should be scrutinized, because New Jersey laws and regulations preclude corporations from exercising clinical control over health care decisions.”NAPA’s practices have drawn complaints and generated litigation from other hospitals in recent years. This spring, for example, Renown Regional Medical Center in Reno, Nevada, broke its contract with NAPA, saying it had severely understaffed the facility and put patients at risk.
“Scrutiny by the Federal Trade Commission, which monitors industries for anti-competitive and monopolistic activities is investigating

#155 jess on 10.12.22 at 4:18 pm

136 Mehling on 10.12.22 at 11:04 am
… he got alex jones endorsement
==============================
look back
A bad bank is a corporate structure which isolates illiquid and high risk assets (typically non-performing loans) held by a bank or a financial organisation, or perhaps a group of banks or financial organisations.[1] A bank may accumulate a large portfolio of debts or other financial instruments which unexpectedly become at risk of partial or full default. A large volume of non-performing assets usually make it difficult for the bank to raise capital, for example through sales of bonds. In these circumstances, the bank may wish to segregate its good assets from its bad assets through the creation of a bad bank. The goal of the segregation is to allow investors to assess the bank’s financial health with greater certainty.[1] A bad bank might be established by one bank or financial institution as part of a strategy to deal with a difficult financial situation, or by a government or some other official institution as part of an official response to financial problems across a number of institutions in the financial sector.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_bank

In addition to segregating or removing the bad assets from parent banks’ balance sheets, a bad bank structure permits specialized management to deal with the problem of bad debts. The approach allows good banks to focus on their core business of lending while the bad bank can specialize in maximizing value from the high risk assets.[2]

Such bad bank institutions have been created to address challenges arising during an economic credit crunch to allow private banks to take problem assets off their books.[3] The financial crisis of 2007–2010 resulted in bad banks being set up in several countries. For example, a bad bank was suggested as part of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 to help address the subprime mortgage crisis in the US. In the Republic of Ireland, a bad bank, the National Asset Management Agency was established in 2009, in response to the financial crisis in that country

#156 jess on 10.12.22 at 4:25 pm

148 Midnight’s on 10.12.22 at 3:09 pm
what about this?

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19/hospitalization-rates-confirm-covid-vaccines-benefits

#157 Faron on 10.12.22 at 4:36 pm

Woops, instant karma. Forgot the slash in the HTML tag.

#158 jess on 10.12.22 at 4:45 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-health-coronavirus-idUSL2N2N72CS

148 Midnight’s on 10.12.22 at 3:09 pm
are you referring to mike yeadon?

Michael Yeadon last worked at Pfizer a decade ago, and was never the company’s “chief scientist.” His anti-vaccine argument relies on predictions that never panned out.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/pfizer-chief-scientist-vaccines/

#159 Tom from Mississauga on 10.12.22 at 8:34 pm

Maybe 20,000,000 Boomers in the West will come out of retirement, China will stop imploding, Putin will surrender and pour out commodities, the Americans will defend everyone and charge no tariffs, climate change production restrictions will end and therefore we can go back 1.5% mortgages. That could definitely happen Garth.

#160 DON on 10.13.22 at 1:18 am

#33 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 10.11.22 at 3:20 pm
“…typeface…” is everyone’s typography lesson for the day.

Look at all those sans serif letter forms suggesting a lack of seriousness to their cause. They should have consulted a nomograph before creating signage.

*******
You must remember ‘They’ are Home owners who are more likely to use Home Printers from Home Hardware. Get what I am putin out Homie.

Rent a protest…a really really bad one!