Onboarding

Steve Bannon’s old gig, the right-wing Breitbart news, took a swipe at Canada two days ago. “Mass migration has quickly spiked Canadians’ housing prices and rapidly reduced the share of Canadians who can own homes,” the outfit reported. To back it up the American editors trotted out stats showing real estate’s ascent in places like Toronto, Hamilton and Vancouver, “amid a massive inflow of immigrants.”

Newcomers, Breitbart says, are responsible for pushing young Canadians out of their home cities, for creating a class of renters for life and forever punishing those in lower income brackets.

Sound familiar? It’s a growing meme that Canada doesn’t have enough houses and immigrants who flood in are competing for this precious commodity. In contrast, the argument in favour of more newcomers is that they bring skills, capital and ambition to a nation with an aging population and low fertility rate, where taxpaying talent is wanted and skilled trades in short supply.

This is news right now because the feds are about to announce Canada’s latest immigration plan for the years 2023 to 2025. It will spell out how many people will be allowed in under three classes – economic, family and humanitarian – over those three years. The target for all immigrants is 431,000 this year and odds are that will rise to 500,000 sometime before the 2020s are over. So far this year we’ve accepted more than 300,000 people, including a whack of war-fleeing Ukranians.

So is this, as Breitbart says, “a massive inflow” pushing house prices ever higher, or is it sane public policy in country like ours that has a 300-year record of immigration?

First, let’s be accurate. Here’s the context….

There are currently 38,929,902 of us in this vast dominion. So 430,000 more constitutes 1.1% of the population – slightly about the 10-year immigration average of 1%.

Last year 359,000 people were born in Canada (down from 380,000 in 2009). Annually, 307,000 folks die (up from 237,000 in 2009). Just under 84,000 babies are aborted. And on average about 55,000 people emigrate out of the country.

So, we’re not replacing ourselves. To do so would require each woman to produce 2.1 children. But the fertility rate has dropped sharply to 1.4%. Just like Japan, where an aging populace has resulted in decades of recession.

Here’s how StatsCan sees it:

Canada is also among late-childbearing countries, with the average age of mothers at the time of delivery being 31.3 years in 2020. If the country’s fertility continues to decline further in the coming years, Canada could join the countries with the “lowest-low” fertility rates (1.3 or less children per woman)—a situation associated with rapid population aging and increased stress on the labour market, public health care and pension systems.

How about the elephants in the room? Old farts. Like moi. Baby Boomers (56 to 75 years of age now) constitute 25% of the population. That’s a huge number of people (9.2 million) who are largely (a) not working, (b) sucking off more than $80 billion a year in OAS and GIS benefits – scheduled to hit $108 billion in seven years and (c) consuming enormous amounts of health care. The over-65 set now accounts for 47% of all of Canada’s medical spending. By 2040 this will rise to 74% and the country’s health care budget will swell by 88%. So, who foots the bill if the taxpayer base erodes?

Now, what about real estate? Is immigration making homes less achievable, or helping to save the economy from a Japanese-style demographic melt?

A blog dog realtor going by ‘Old Ron’ sends these words:

We all got addicted to real estate as an asset class. It was an easy fix to a systemically unsound economy, that has been reduced to “Crude Oil and Condo’s” as David Rosenberg remarked last year. Now housing is unaffordable, and it’s knock-on effect is a bucket of cold water on new Canadians who may have short listed this country as a place to move. Canada desperately needs immigration as the bulge in the snake, (the Boomers), are preparing for the big rock festival in the sky. Trouble is when a young couple has to shell out $35,000 in after tax income to rent a tiny Condo, many are turning around and leaving. I talk to just about anyone. (a common trait among old farts) and I take a keen interest in the diverse lives of folks who were not born in Canada. I have found that if they arrived in Canada pre boom (Basically pre-Trudeau) they are fine. They got a foot hold, a house, and a family that is doing well. But since 2016 and beyond, it is very difficult for someone who arrived with limited resources to get started in their new country, fully 1/3 think about leaving within 12 months. Social media has been on this story for a year now, and the MSM is starting to discover that reverse immigration is a serious challenge for Canada.

The overwhelming reason houses cost too much is because mortgage rates were too low. We financialized real estate. We flipped, gorged, speculated, leveraged and FOMO’d our way into an economic addiction that now has us trapped.

Did newcomers make us do that? Do they steal houses from the old stockers? Or is this fresh blood and ambition precisely the transfusion we need?

Think about it.

By the way 95.1% of us came from somewhere. And we’re not so bad.

 

181 comments ↓

#1 AM in MN on 10.10.22 at 3:01 pm

The bigger problem is that the ones who leave are often the high tax payers, and medical workers who needed.

When they get replaced with family class immigrants, especially seniors who don’t pay a lot of tax and need a lot of health care, it hurts more than it helps.

Also, housing wouldn’t be such a problem if more land was opened up for development. Such a huge country that is now largely off limits for new development, so thus it isn’t a simple task to find homes for everyone.

#2 Prince Polo on 10.10.22 at 3:01 pm

Pum’kin pie or bust!

#3 Andrew on 10.10.22 at 3:03 pm

Well said. But fascists like Steve Bannon always need a convenient scapegoat to distract people.

#4 Dave on 10.10.22 at 3:03 pm

OPEC is no longer in the USA control.

Oil prices will spike causing further inflation. Will the central banks do even bigger front loading of rates?

#5 Pylot Project on 10.10.22 at 3:04 pm

Slightly incorrect.

Baby Boomers (56 to 75 years of age now) should read Baby Boomers (56 to 75 years of age as of 2021). According the StatsCan at least.

Don’t age me so fast Garth. I’m front runner GenX and fiercely proud of it. :D

#6 Lisa on 10.10.22 at 3:07 pm

Here is the question, I just don’t get in all this – why do we have a housing shortage in Canada? We have more than enough land. And even if people were investing in homes in large numbers wouldn’t that just add to the supply and keep costs low? Building more homes isn’t rocket science so where is the bottle neck to this?

#7 Shawn on 10.10.22 at 3:07 pm

Houses too expensive?

Give it six months?

Or just move to Alberta.

A friend who has a little welding company in the oil patch says he has never seen the demand for welders this high (him and other contractors) since he got into the industry circa 2012. My point is, there are right now lots of jobs in Alberta. Come on in. It’s your right as a Canadian to move to any province you would like to.

#8 J on 10.10.22 at 3:09 pm

Some quick notes:

1) 500,000 people immigrating is larger than Canada’s 11th biggest city (London, Ontario at an estimated 432,000 people). Every two years it’s a city nearly the size of Ottawa.

2) They almost all go to major urban centres, especially the Toronto and Vancouver areas.

3) They all have to live somewhere.

Options:

a) They buy existing houses or rent existing apartments making the current shortage exceedingly worse

b) They end up in homeless shelters or government provided housing taking away spots in already crowded homeless shelters and interrupt the huge backlog of people waiting for government provided housing

c) We build homes for 500,000 extra people annually above and beyond what is already there and have them ready immediately (keep dreaming).

Also worth noting:

Many immigrants come from countries where living several families to what we consider a single family house is not seen as a big deal. If people already here complain, the government, media and other power structures will just browbeat them and call them racist until they stop complaining. As long as there are people coming from worse places, the government can keep decreasing living standards in perpetuity because there’s places worse off that people will come from.

None of this even touches on the cultural stresses of bringing in so many people who speak so many languages and have vastly different customs than the locals. It’s no wonder politics in Canada are getting so extreme.

Look at just about every western country in the world and the root of most of their problems can be traced to immigration.

Here’s a crazy idea: governments focus on making the conditions better for people who already live here so they actually can and want to have kids, instead of outsourcing procreation to third world countries and importing them when they grow up so we can scam our way out of paying for their upbringing and brain draining the countries that need them.

#9 Soviet Capitalist on 10.10.22 at 3:15 pm

Either the immigration or the low interest rates – one of them must go. Which one should it be?

#10 TurnerNation on 10.10.22 at 3:15 pm

#36 Faron on 10.09.22 at 12:47 pm
“because you live in a functional society that cares for its citizenry”

Faron has it totally backwards. (This is where “the left” gets it wrong.)
>> I built what I have as I’m a functional CITIZEN that cares for [my] SOCIETY.
Welcome to rightism. In the strictest sense of the word.

———–

War: in 2020 I posted that with so many young people idled when the global governments shut down the economy (for our health) that a logical next step would be a War Draft. Maybe I was two years too early?

————-
We were to supposed to be so healthy, enjoy such health after the government took care of us :(

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11287779/Record-numbers-toddlers-hospitalized-colds-immunity-weakened-restrictions.html
The lockdown effect: Record numbers of children are being hospitalized with colds after their immunity was weakened by social distancing and masks, CDC report reveals

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-63097142
Investigation into spikes in newborn baby deaths in Scotland
The Scottish government has ordered the review of neonatal death rates after two spikes over a six-month period. Both increases were larger than what would normally be expected.

#11 Bguy1 on 10.10.22 at 3:16 pm

Seems like the housing “crisis” will solve itself in the next few decades, no?

#12 ElGatoNeroYVR on 10.10.22 at 3:19 pm

Excellent post Garth ,hard to disagree with mostly anything.
As an immigrant myself the biggest problems I see are around employment.
One particular to new immigrants is that there are literally 0 services to help connect new arrivals to jobs ( the dreaded Canadian experience).Then odd ones through churches and Mosaic are not nearly enough.
The most general ones affecting everyone is that companies just don’t want to hire and train and have insane requirements for even entry level jobs.For every one of those ” unfilled positions” there are hundreds of applicants deemed either “not qualified/experienced enough ” or discreelty sidelined due to age .
Back to immigrations it is insane that you need to fully restart your trade / docorate from another country .A simple (emphasis on simple) equivalation test should suffice.
From personal experience if I wanted to work in my last job form the previous country I would have had to resart my whole trainig and certification ; which I already spent 1 year achieving in my previous country and worked for 4 years fully certified.
There are lots of others I know from engineers to trades, not even bringing up nurses or doctors.
There is where the federal government could make a difference ,somehow kill the interprovincial trade barriers and come up with an expedited equivalation program for foreign certifications.

#13 Josh Feldman on 10.10.22 at 3:22 pm

No matter how much word salad you put, there is a reason why Canadian birth rates are extremely low. The universities attack average men while they praise the corporate donors who depend on a mass supply of cheap labour from abroad.

Canada is no longer a country that I would retire in.

It’s a global reality that fertility rates drop as education and income levels rise. – Garth

#14 PeterfromCalgary on 10.10.22 at 3:26 pm

Immigrants do need housing just like the rest of this. So they add to the demand. But price increases would have been limited if interest rates had been higher as people would not have qualified for massive mortgages and prices would have been limited.

Their is not one cause for high home prices. Their are many causes.

As interest rates went down, houses went up. Now rates are going up, houses are going down. During Covid, immigration was largely suspended while real estate values went nuts as mortgages crashed. Draw your own conclusions. – Garth

#15 Sail Away on 10.10.22 at 3:30 pm

As a first-generation immigrant to Canada, I can confirm my arrival here conferred many benefits upon the country, including but not limited to:

Skills, capital, ambition, fertility, and modesty.

And since being here, I’ve created dozens of jobs for Canadians and paid vast quantities of tax to the Canadian government, much of this, ironically, coming from capital gains on US American investments.

#16 Shawn on 10.10.22 at 3:34 pm

Why more houses not getting built?

#6 Lisa on 10.10.22 at 3:07 pm

Here is the question, I just don’t get in all this – why do we have a housing shortage in Canada? We have more than enough land. And even if people were investing in homes in large numbers wouldn’t that just add to the supply and keep costs low? Building more homes isn’t rocket science so where is the bottle neck to this?

***********************************
Do we have a shortage or just the prices were too high?

Canada has been building very roughly 250,000 houses a year going back two decades.

Canada with 10% of the population of the U.S. has built closer to 20% of the U.S. figure which has been below 2 million since I believe circa 2007. They were well under a million some years by my recollection.

But some of the barriers are municipal zoning including NIMBY and the single-family-only home belt that surrounds city cores. The cost to produce a serviced lot has gone up, well, a LOT. And where are the automation efficiencies that should have lowered the construction costs vastly? Another “problem” has been the added space per house. Closets and washrooms the size of bedrooms. And the fact that everyone wants a house these days to have more toilets than butts to occupy those toilets.

#17 I don’t know on 10.10.22 at 3:34 pm

Canada is a country with few large cities where the most opportunity exists, almost all are close to the US border. Our large land mass means there isn’t as much migration from city to city as in other countries. As a result the demand in and around large cities for housing is sustained and only increases over time.

Does this mean houses should cost hundreds of thousands in far off small town? Of course not. But the case for sustained high housing costs in our large cities is there.

IDK

#18 Peter Clemenza on 10.10.22 at 3:36 pm

Hey Garth , it’s your old pal Peter here .
Methinks we screwed up badly , looking back since 2015 eh…now a whole generation will be locked out of the housing market , even if it tumbles 25 % from here . Honestly , wages aren’t catching up fast enough to inflation and this spells real trouble ahead.
We are in for a rough decades , not even PP can get us out of this mess created by a lax BOC and by Harpos and Trudos policies.
In other words we are doomed as a country

#19 Laborinleq on 10.10.22 at 3:38 pm

DELETED

#20 Amy on 10.10.22 at 3:40 pm

This represents the globalist plan in action – creating a permanent underclass of renters.

This is accomplished by hedge funds purchasing as many available family homes as possible and flooding the country with wage slaves that they will be used as scapegoats by the opposition.

So far their plans show no signs of slowing. Rents in Toronto are obscene unless you share bunkbeds in a one bedroom apartment.

This is the future you voted for Canadians

#21 OttawaKaren-Bring me the manager's head! on 10.10.22 at 3:43 pm

The renovated Canada Hall at Hull’s Museum of History has an excellent interactive display board on Canadian immigration.

Migration to and from the US has always been a big part of Canada’s story. It is about to become even bigger.

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 3:50 pm

1% immigration is ok.
But if its unskilled workers?
Whats the point?
The doctors, nurses, pilots, scientists and engineers certainly aren’t flocking to high tax, high cost of living Canada.
They’re leaving.

#23 Flop… on 10.10.22 at 3:51 pm

“It’s a global reality that fertility rates drop as education and income levels rise.”– Garth

————————————————-

The defence would like to present Exhibit A, Your Honour…

M48BC

“Mapped: Immigration by Country, as a Percentage of the Population.

Higher immigration levels are generally correlated with higher standards of living and advanced economies. For instance, North America, Europe, and Oceania all have a relatively high proportion of immigrants.

The United States is home to the largest number of immigrants—over 50 million—which now make up 15% of the country’s population. Since 1990, the proportion of immigrants in the country has continued to rise. As with most advanced economies, immigration has helped to counter a decline in fertility rates.”

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/mapped-immigration-by-country-as-a-percentage-of-the-population/

#24 Japan on 10.10.22 at 3:52 pm

One aspect of Japan is that the declining population (which will eventually happen here) is that housing in outlying areas has dropped a great deal in value. It is possible to buy relatively new homes in fairly good condition for a small fraction of what a similar home would cost here. In large part, this is because there are fewer and fewer people living in the small towns and villages. Most of those who remain are the elderly. It is getting harder and harder for them to get the services they need. Japan has one of the lowest immigration rates in the world to their detriment.

Admittedly there are probably many differences between Japan and Canada so a high degree of correlation between the two is unlikely. Nevertheless, if we have a declining population because of a low birth rate and a diminishing supply of immigrants, then this might mean that real estate does not increase in value anywhere outside of large population centres. Those who would whip up a xenophobia frenzy may well be cutting off their noses to spite their faces.

The knock-on effects of an aging population that cannot replace itself are equally at play in Russia (turbo charged by the current war waged with Ukraine), China (disastrously), and many European nations.

#25 Jason on 10.10.22 at 3:56 pm

#6 Lisa

“Building more homes isn’t rocket science so where is the bottle neck to this?”

Boomers, as Garth mentioned, are a huge percentage of the population. Many own homes. But they’re healthier than ever and wealthy and don’t need to downsize anytime soon, like past “older” generations did. Millennials, another huge percentage of the population are forming families and wanting homes, but there’s very little available due to previously mentioned Boomers not selling. Add on top of that a short gate of skilled tradespeople to build new homes and you get the bottleneck.

Also, unlike the US, there is a shortage of big cities in Canada. Most folks want to live in, or near a big city. In the US there’s a big city on every state, and multiple big cities in the most populous ones. Here we’ve got Toronto, Vancouver, and that’s about it. So despite there being lots of land, most of it is not really going to get developed because nobody wants to live there.

#26 PeterfromCalgary on 10.10.22 at 3:57 pm

“During Covid, immigration was largely suspended while real estate values went nuts as mortgages crashed. Draw your own conclusions. – Garth”

True interest low interest rates give people the means to bid up values.

Another problem is available land. Having so much of Canada’s population in the GTA means their is not enough land in the GTA to build new detached housing. Restrictive zoning limits how much density you can have so you have massive, expensive condo towers in areas where they are allowed while low density single detached homes take up most of the scarce land. What is missing is affordable medium density row housing and low rise multifamily housing. The reason for this mess is political as detached home owner don’t want more density in their neighborhoods.

#27 Malthusian on 10.10.22 at 3:57 pm

So you admit that you want millions of newcomers to pay your pensions?
I have an idea: We should let the newcomers live at 24 Sussex Drive in Ottawa and see how the politicians feel.

It’s $1,000 a month to rent a SHARED ROOM in a distant suburb of Toronto.

#28 Why Didn't I Think of That? Invest WHERE IT IS CHEAPER!!!! on 10.10.22 at 3:58 pm

Immigration is nothing, they know USA is a much better investment because the houses are so cheap in the USA compared to Canada. The hoarders still get whacked by higher interest rates that drops their prices every time.
If you don’t mention snowbirds taking off every year for 6 months oer more you would miss that millions no longer need to own a home in Canada, because they can buy a bunch of them like 10 houses instead of one Canadian home and collect 10 monthly rents in juicy American dollars for the rest of their lives in their bank accounts on the first or fifteenth of every month for the rest of their lives. Canada’s housing markets ae crashing now as the American deals are so prevalent with 142 million homes in the USA, with millions just on the oter side of teh border south of Canada’s major cities. So if you are a bank, creditor or mortgagee you are the BAGHOLDER IN CANADA. THE MONEY HAS LEFT FOR THE USA’S THOUSANDS OF DIFFERENT HOUSING MARKETS AND WON’T BE COMING BACK FOR 20 YEARS OR MORE.

#29 Dan on 10.10.22 at 3:59 pm

Take a page from the Chinese and build 3-4 new modern, eco-friendly 21st Century cities within reach of the infrastructure and transportation lines. I am writing you this from Europe and that’s exactly what they are doing. Entire sub-cities on rail lines and fast transit. Mix of low rise and high-rise, restaurants, playgrounds and plenty to do.

#30 ogdoad on 10.10.22 at 4:04 pm

Hey, you know what? human migration has been happening for millennia – why would we think it should be any different now? That, and climate refugees are going to start plugging boarders as well. What are we going to do, say no? Its our fault, isn’t it? We’re going to say no b/c our whiny, first world, entitled offspring deserve jobs and houses over other humans?

Newsflash for all the racist, misogynistic, homophobic nationalists living under space rocks out there (and there are LOTS – obviously under read, too…real shame) in my experience, immigrants actually work harder, have a WAY better value system, in cases highly educated, like hugging and are more open to a better life than the lazy, over weight, lefty, lonely and pompous people we have living in Canada today.

But ya’ll do a great job washing your teslas then napping…I’ve noticed…and that’s HUGE!!!

Anywho, its cold here…and the sig. is warm, if ya catch my drift – snuggle time!

Og

#31 Søren Angst on 10.10.22 at 4:15 pm

about 55,000 people emigrate out of the country ✅
[Mea Culpa but hey it was Italia … I mean, come on]

(a) not working ✅

(b) sucking off more than $80 billion a year
in OAS ✅ they give me a pittance.
and GIS benefits ❎

(c) consuming enormous amounts of health care ❎

95.1% of us came from somewhere. ✅ [and back there]

———————–

Good one today Garth.

Italia same boat as Japan.

But maybe, money doesn’t buy everything, GDP does not have to always increase and perhaps … just perhaps, there are other pursuits in life worth living that do not need a wallet like an accordian.

And on that disingenuous Jack Handy moment I’m not giving back the pittance of OAS I get on spite alone … pry it from my cold, dead hands.

#32 Catalyst on 10.10.22 at 4:15 pm

More immigration is driving up rents unquestionably. The higher rents are driving seniors into poverty. More immigration is not the silver bullet to an aging demo.

#33 Blind on 10.10.22 at 4:17 pm

After reading this article, I will safely conclude that it must be the lead paint that brought about this bizarre thesis that lacks empathy for younger generations being burdened by lower wages and suffering in a rent seeking economy.
It’s the lead paint.

#34 Sail Away on 10.10.22 at 4:19 pm

Elon Musk is an immigrant to the US, and his immensely beneficial impact on his new country is the stuff of legend.

Also, in addition to free Starlink changing the balance of power and saving thousands in Ukraine, he has now granted Starlink to those fighting Iran’s restrictive regime:

https://www.thestreet.com/technology/elon-musk-provides-starlink-to-iran-fighting-islamic-regime

The Messiah?

#35 Søren Angst on 10.10.22 at 4:26 pm

And, here we have an additional mandate suggestion for the Bank of Canada *

Home Owner’s Relief (avec Petition) **
https://www.change.org/p/home-owner-s-relief

[They translated most of the page to Italian for me]

* Mandate and add to that the mile long DIRGE in the above web page.
** Knock yourselves out FOMO people, specuvestors, financially reckless, et. al.

#36 baloney Sandwitch on 10.10.22 at 4:28 pm

Thank you Garth for bringing us this pathetic (but sturdy) blog each and every day. Here is an ecard for you and the flea bitten (but blog addicted) dogs.
http://jlcards.com/RG5Jp5

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 4:40 pm

This documentary was released less than 2 weeks before Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart hopes to be re-elected.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwin6KrBwdb6AhWnFTQIHcAjCTMQwqsBegQICBAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DPT8OU8Yhs_s&usg=AOvVaw2naabK5GSLfGx8Nxg46W87

This excellent documentary is 55 minutes long.

For anyone that can’t spend the entire 55 minutes.
Log in at 19:55 mark and watch 10 minutes.

It will give you a bit of an idea as to what the Vancouver Downtown Eastside “tent city” has become.
Total anarchy.
ALL under Mayor Stewarts’ politically correct reign of error.
And this area is a 5 minute walk from the main cruise ship terminal for tens of thousands of tourists.
Tour busses have started cruising Hastings St with tourists…….

#38 Voice of treason on 10.10.22 at 4:41 pm

Good post overall. Well stitched together.

I have a couple stupid questions if anyone will indulge me with their thoughts:

– there are many, including Garth, who seem to think there is not a “supply” issue with housing. Wouldn’t economics 101 and the laws of supply and demand, along with our recent experience with rising prices, suggest otherwise?

– related to the above, I’ve been reading rental price increases have been outpacing housing costs for some time and continue to increase during this correction. How would this be explained? If house prices are merely the result of crazy hgtv loving Canadians (I do believe this is a big part of the fundamental issue, to be clear), why are rental prices for dumpy basement apartments going nuts?

As a disclosure, I’m an older millennial who is well established and will likely have a boomer like quality of life. In my view, there is a generational screw job occurring now. While it’s a great job market to graduate into, the housing standard for young Canadians will be decidedly lower. If you are even able to get out of moms house.

Next year nobody will even suggest we have a supply problem as listings swell. Nor did we have one when mortgage rates were normalized. Building more units will not, on its own, lower prices. Rising rents reflect the swelling cost of the asset (housing) and its financing and ownership overhead. The reality is it remains far, far cheaper to rent than to own and landlords as a group subsidize tenants. – Garth

#39 Lisa on 10.10.22 at 4:56 pm

The problem is when it’s acceptable to pay $800 a month to share a room with 3 other greater fools to pay someone’s mortgage or help them buy more properties.

To rent a Bachelor apartment in Thorncliffe Park will se to back $1650 a month plus hydro.

We are living just like the poor people in Manila slums, but paying luxury estate prices for the privilege.

#40 Penny Henny on 10.10.22 at 4:58 pm

As interest rates went down, houses went up. Now rates are going up, houses are going down. During Covid, immigration was largely suspended while real estate values went nuts as mortgages crashed. Draw your own conclusions. – Garth

////////////////

Haven’t you said on numerous occasions that new immigrants are not buying houses when they arrive?
So the suspension of new immigrants during Covid would not have any affect on housing markets short term.

#41 Dustin John Nadler-Behnka on 10.10.22 at 5:03 pm

I flew through the Tulsa “international” airport the other day. There is a big display on black wall street, affluent entrepreneurs that the bitter and resentful white poor regarded as lesser because of their skin colour. These mean folks raided and destroyed black wall street and committed atrocities that I can’t mention on this pathetic blog. I think of that when I read that we’re blaming immigrants for our woes. Please read about black wall street and learn about what bitterness and resentfulness manifests.

#42 wallflower on 10.10.22 at 5:06 pm

Because this great nation doesn’t track it, we really have no idea who stays and who leaves.

However, my personal observation is that even the refugees are leaving! I know of people who are leaving Canada after having received refugee status and then citizenship! They are headed to countries where housing is much more favourable and lifestyle is much less regulated.

I even know of one dude who is leaving with his Canadian currency salary intact, as an ongoing remote worker. He will live large where he is headed. Cannot see him making a return.

Where are the stats on immigrants who do not stay?
Is Canada increasingly processing passport collectors?

#43 Millennial Realist on 10.10.22 at 5:08 pm

We’re now well past the tipping point where Boomers no longer form the largest voter group, even when the Gen-Xers are added in (those born between about 1960 and early 1980s.

Keep in mind that all descriptions of ‘generations’ are deeply flawed and imperfect which is why many today think Gen X only started after 1965 (though it has been conventional to say Gen X started around 1960 or even earlier for years) and Millennials began earlier than previously thought, even though such definitions have been in flux for years.

https://slate.com/technology/2018/04/the-evidence-behind-generations-is-lacking.html)

But going forward we are already seeing a new “generation” of politicians who will not feel the need to pander to older Boomers who have profited massively from their real estate gains and other positional, not meritorious, advantages – yet they cannot even afford small increases in property taxes or income taxes due to mishandling of their financial affairs and not calling on professional help like Garth’s team offers.

The traditional “three score and ten” lifespan aspiration is an interesting benchmark. The biggest group of boomers is already in their eighth and likely final decade, more joining soon, and the change ahead will be stunning. By 2030 most Boomers will be gone, and by 2035-2040 virtually all will be. I’m already reading about ‘Gen Alpha’, a possible marker for those born after 2010. Change is the only constant guarantee life gives us

Immigration is fine, but it should not be done to prop up the house values of privileged elders who are fast becoming less relevant to our modern challenges. Especially when we have created an environmental doomsday clock caused by having so many of us on this planet.

We all need to be part of the change, and the really big changes ahead are coming at us right now at light speed.

#44 Steve French on 10.10.22 at 5:10 pm

Funny, the Australian government is also ramping up immigration to a record high at the exact same time there is a massive crisis in affordable housing and rental stock,

Why is it that the debate is between 400,000 immigrants and zero?

Why can’t we accept 200,000 immigrants and make sure there is enough housing and infrastructure to support them?

By using immigrants to try jack up house prices and maintain economic growth, without investing in the infrastructure to support them, you just turn the domestic population against immigration.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/10/australia-facing-full-blown-housing-crisis/

Steve

#45 Daveyboy on 10.10.22 at 5:20 pm

How many people are leaving Canada every year? I left six years ago, and I don’t think I will ever return.

#46 Ca Nada on 10.10.22 at 5:26 pm

Let’s throw a few marketing catch phrases around for the marketing plan for this 2023-2025 effort.

Canada. Welcoming you to help pay our debt.

Canada. Come, we have bills to pay.

Canada. Getting old fast and in need of fresh blood.

Canada. Quietly benefiting from conflict and war to pay our way in the future.

Canada. Here today, and maybe even tomorrow.

#47 Ambi and Vasu on 10.10.22 at 5:28 pm

Greaterfool today says:
“In contrast, the argument in favour of more newcomers is that they bring skills, capital and ambition to a nation with an aging population”

Yes, newcomers bring skills but there is a ton of ENTRY BARRIERS and GATEKEEPERS which makes it typically impossible to get into a persons own skill group.

A couple of months back we spoke to a surgeon (yes, a medical doctor who preforms surgeries on human beings) on a community chat group helping new comers. In ongoing discussions with him, we got to know that his wife (a chartered accountant) left Canada a month after coming in due to a number of roadblocks to get into her profession. He is still in Canada and can not find a job for the last four months in a related profession and was still exploring the possibility of looking for some alternative employment. Many suggested he drive a cab to know the geography of the place.

It is so very difficult to get into the skilled professions because of the ENTRY BARRIERS and tons of GATE KEEPERS who make it impossible to get into ones profession which makes the newcomers frustrated and they leave. As for myself, I had to go back to my old job because of the difficulty in getting into my own profession. My immigrant visa was canceled at the airport while my wife and kids were still here in Canada (immigration officer insisted that either I give-up my job in Gulf or give up my immigrant visa and I decided to keep my Gulf job and he canceled my immigrant visa at the airport). And I never took up a job in Canada (from 1997 to 2008) when my daughter passed her chartered accountancy exam when we decided leave Canada for good just wehn my parent oil company offered me a job here in Canada at my level of skill-set .

There was a friend of mine, a highly skilled oil&gas mechanical technician who could not get his red-seal license for about four years after immigrating. To help him get a license, I appeared in the exam with him and upon our result (I passed the exam and he failed again), we met the chief-examiner and showed him the entry barriers and difficulty levels they have placed in getting the license for these red-seal technicians. For example, one question in the exam required a collective decision by four licensed engineers and was totally beyond the technicians skill and knowledge. The chief examiner was apologetic and the result was my friend passed the exam……

Garth, it is very difficult to get into the skilled trades due to these entry barriers and gatekeepers but people bringing in Capital are always welcome …… That is another story for another time…..

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 5:28 pm

@#33 Blind
“this bizarre thesis that lacks empathy for younger generations being burdened by lower wages and suffering in a rent seeking economy.”

+++
Yes .
You are blind.
Wages have never been higher.
Unemployment has never been lower.
Interest rates are crushing housing sales.
House prices will follow.
7% interest rates are historically normal.
Sorry if you think normal isn’t “fair”.
Quit whining.
Deal with it.

#49 DON on 10.10.22 at 5:31 pm

#7 Shawn on 10.10.22 at 3:07 pm
Houses too expensive?

Give it six months?

Or just move to Alberta.

A friend who has a little welding company in the oil patch says he has never seen the demand for welders this high (him and other contractors) since he got into the industry circa 2012. My point is, there are right now lots of jobs in Alberta. Come on in. It’s your right as a Canadian to move to any province you would like to.

**********
I guess it is a matter if perspective. Maybe they weren’t willing to travel?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/dave-mackenzie-industrial-welding-first-person-1.6598734

I was proud to work in oil and gas. But with layoffs and wage cuts, all I cared about was my crew

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 5:32 pm

@#43 Delusional.
“I’m already reading about ‘Gen Alpha’, a possible marker for those born after 2010. ”
+++
A politically correct gender neutral way of saying “Alpha male”?
Keep dreaming.
No amount of hissy fits will get you what you want.
Hard work and sacrifice.
Like us Boomers.

I’ll see you at the Old Folks Home in 2040.
Changing my Depends.
:)

#51 Paddy on 10.10.22 at 5:48 pm

Sweet window sticker, though I wouldn’t want to be rear ended, a sweet insurance claim could result but you could be a mangled for life. And all this immigration is gnna take place during our transition to “green energy”…yah ok buds…all under the the careful and steady direction of our current Liberal government, AKA Mr. Mumbles….good times ahead

#52 Shawn on 10.10.22 at 5:49 pm

Housing Supply math

So we been building say 250,000 houses a year and we say the young have been priced out.

So who owns them? More boomer and other age investors owning multiple homes?

Octogenarians (and older) living longer and healthier and not dying or moving to senior homes to free up more houses?

What is the math when we build more and yet there is a shortage? Immigration is higher but it’s not new.

Has the number of houses per capita gone down? I highly doubt it.

What about all those singles living on their own? Used to be two adults mostly shared a house / home. Now one home each. That adds to the lack of ability to afford a home on the one income. This is also causing the lower fertility rate. Gotta get the young people to pair up (and move to Alberta).

#53 Squire on 10.10.22 at 6:05 pm

There are no easy solutions.
When society was more rural, people had more children as they were also considered help around the property or farm. As urbanization increased, we had less children. So is the solution be spread people out in more rural settings ?
In the end, I don’t believe immigration is the real solution. Most immigrants end up in urban areas and eventually also realize having too many children is expensive unless you live on a farm. I think we will end up having to always increase immigration because of the fact society is becoming ever more urbanized.
We have so much technology now including high speed internet, 5G etc. not to mention work from home abilities. Maybe the solution is promoting more rural living with a twist. Just some thoughts.

#54 Who can afford 2.1 kids these days on 10.10.22 at 6:09 pm

My wife and I waited until 35 to have our first child because we wanted to ensure we had a stable base in order to raise him properly i.e a house and some savings. Since both of us don’t work minimum wage jobs we do not qualify for baby bonus or anything of the sort. I’m not complaining about that but my point is that maybe a reason Canadians aren’t reproducing enough is because the cost of raising a child is growing exponentially in this country. Music lessons, sports, tutoring, college/university costs aren’t cheap and if one wishes to raise a well adjusted child in this ever increasing competitive world food and shelter aren’t enough. If the government wishes to encourage people to have a 2.1 + child family they should follow basic economic theory and introduce incentives. Perhaps childrens activities could be tax deductible for example. Children’s clothes/diapers could pay less gst, these are just ideas off the top of my head, someone tell me what I’m missing.

#55 Editrix on 10.10.22 at 6:15 pm

Immigrants leaving Canada is nothing new. Apparently it was huge at the beginning of the Depression. My grandparents had difficulty providing for themselves. My unemployed grandfather remained in Toronto while my grandmother and 7 year old Canadian mother returned to my grandmother’s farming relatives in Scotland. It took almost two years before they were able to return to Toronto. Then again, Canada wasn’t as desperate for taxpayers back then.

#56 Steven Rowlandson on 10.10.22 at 6:22 pm

Garth, you proved the genocidal nature of the real estate market and what drives it higher. Thank you!

Now if only we could have corrective action.

#57 Flop… on 10.10.22 at 6:30 pm

Hey Jane 24, I’ve got a place that you might want to look into for retirement.

Crete.

I toured the Greek islands in the summer of 2000, and the reason I liked Crete so much was it was so much bigger than the other islands down that way, and it was bustling enough with locals all over the island that it didn’t seem to be as tourist dependent.

I think you said something about warm weather, check.

Maybe something about near the water?

Something, something about taxes?

Dunno.

Let’s look at what 325k Canadian gets you.

https://www.properstar.ca/listing/83283838

Nice villa, probably not big enough if you’ve got a big family.

Near the city of Chania, which I thought was the nicest one on the island.

This one under construction looks a bit bigger for 350k

https://www.properstar.ca/listing/82619270

In Vancouver for the same money you can buy a mouldy 47 year old 1 bed 1 bath condo…

#58 HH on 10.10.22 at 6:34 pm

As far as the low birth rate is concerned I’m not surprised. There’s no pension plan at the end of kids. I don’t know why women want to go through that gawd awful child birth but they do and they should be compensated for it. I’m talking about a government pension. It’s the government that needs the babies so it should dangle a carrot or two. Child benefits just don’t cut it, although, I think that should be taxable like the OAS. When a woman goes on mat leave her CPP suffers along with her company pension unless she can find the money to continue to contribute for both her portion and her employer’s portion. For women who don’t work outside the home but raise four or five kids just to end up on OAS and GIS – yeah that works out well.

#59 Land Lorde on 10.10.22 at 6:37 pm

DELETED

#60 Trudeau.must.go on 10.10.22 at 6:42 pm

Breitbart is a bunch of garbage.

However, I would be hesitant to defend the immigration policies of a PM who just recently referred to myself and my family (4th generation Canadian Citizens, taxpayers, property owners and highly educated professionals) as “settlers” and started making noises about people like us having to perhaps get out of Canada and go back to wherever our distant ancestors immigrated from.

That woke dope has gone too far. Crossed a line with me and my kin. He needs to get lost.

#61 "NUTS!" on 10.10.22 at 6:44 pm

#38 Voice of treason

One need only remember the age old Tulip Mania of the 17th century to understand it’s not always a direct correlation to actual demand, but rather a mania masking functional demand.

It is crazy to see the hoards of comments and perspectives here every day trying desperately deflect from the actual, quite simple logic that got us here. As Garth tries so hard to preach, it is a simple force in financial reasoning. The lower the interest rates, the higher the cost of real estate. I REALLY hope we see rates rise to some sense of normality for an extended period of time. Then I’ll sit here with my bag of popcorn and read what comes from the comments section.

#62 Bezengy on 10.10.22 at 6:48 pm

The dozer guy called it. I believe the term is “Post Trudeau”

————

But since 2016 and beyond, it is very difficult for someone who arrived with limited resources to get started in their new country, fully 1/3 think about leaving within 12 months.

#63 Brian on 10.10.22 at 6:53 pm

I’m sure that Airbnb’s impact the housing affordability in many area’s of the country. An article from 2019 but it probably still true today.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/airbnb-listing-data-toronto-1.5116941

#64 Faron on 10.10.22 at 6:54 pm

Another day, another right wing USA American trying to manipulate Canada rightward (xenophobic and overtly hyper corporate). No bueno. Don’t listen Canada.

Garth, why are the abortion numbers in your post? Pretty irrelevant unless you were to document all the ways Canadians aren’t having kids, of which there are many.

The natural question is how many pregnancies are ended for economic reasons? – Garth

#65 Bob's Your Uncle on 10.10.22 at 6:55 pm

BANNED

#66 Flop… on 10.10.22 at 6:55 pm

Jane, my Uncle Crowdie thinks you’re a bit pompous, but I don’t care I’ll help anyone, especially if I’m allowed to sleep on the couch during the winter.

Weren’t you living down the back of the boot in Italy before.

Somewhere near Lecce?

If so, and you liked the more traditional style of house this cheapo might seem like a deal.

133k

https://www.properstar.ca/listing/8294460

2 kilometres from the sea, might be a dealbreaker, dunno, I drove through that way, lots of charming beach towns and villages.

Now for the Vancouver comparison.

Geez, 133k, you’re not giving me much to work with.

Hang on.

I’ve got it, for 133k in Vancouver you can buy a parking spot…

M48BC

#67 CJohnC on 10.10.22 at 6:55 pm

10 TurnerNation on 10.10.22 at 3:15 pm
#36 Faron on 10.09.22 at 12:47 pm
“because you live in a functional society that cares for its citizenry”

Faron has it totally backwards. (This is where “the left” gets it wrong.)
>> I built what I have as I’m a functional CITIZEN that cares for [my] SOCIETY.

Bang on the money

#68 Shawn on 10.10.22 at 6:56 pm

We will probably have a half million net international migration in 2022.

We got 269,000 people from international migration in Q2 alone adding to population.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220928/dq220928b-eng.htm

I’m not against it but it’s a big number.

We have only reported the first half of the year so far.

Let’s see Q1 was 114,000

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220622/dq220622d-eng.htm

That seems to add up to 383,000 in the first half of the year. It may not be entirely clear if that is NET leavers or before subtracting those leaving but it appears to be net.

We should easily hit 500,000 for the full year. An usual bump due to Ukraine, Afghanistan and pent up demand from pandemic.

Grocery store chains gotta love this. They all gotta eat.

They all gotta live some place too. Move over.

Well, lots of room in Alberta.

#69 Young Guns WC on 10.10.22 at 7:00 pm

International Students make sense for Canada. Most of them end up in colleges/universities in small towns, where the post secondary institutions would have closed down in a few years if they hadn’t arrived. I am looking at you Nova Scotia. Also the colleges/universities make some serious cash while offering most of their classes online.

The international students end up adjusting well to our way of life. Almost all become fluent in English, much better than previous generations. My parents learned English watching Chips and Three’s Company. Jack Ritter is a legend in some ethnic communities. They also end up working part-time jobs nobody wants to do, especially in retail, food service and construction. These students also spend almost all the money they make. Keeps the economy going. We need them.

#70 CJohnC on 10.10.22 at 7:06 pm

#12 ElGatoNeroYVR on 10.10.22 at 3:19 pm

Excellent post and very true.

There should and could be an easier way to get their start in this country using the qualifications they have already earned. Unfortunately they are consistently blocked by medical associations, engineering associations and other vested and provincial interests that only want to protect their turfs.

This is not a new problem as it has always been the case but the government needs the will to fix it and I don’t think that is going to happen anytime soon unfortunately

#71 Quintilian on 10.10.22 at 7:13 pm

Our demographics certainly present a challenge, and Margaret Atwood’s Gilead, solution would be abhorrent, but our immigration scheme isn’t without a moral blemish either.

Most highly trained professionals in westernized advanced economies have no need to uproot and come to the land of ice and snow.
Some may come for the adventure, but not many, and not for long.

We raid poor countries of their intellectuals and technical talent who would otherwise propel those poor countries into a modern economy.

Seems morally repugnant to me.

#72 PBrasseur on 10.10.22 at 7:14 pm

Contrary to what many believe immigration does not solve population aging (ie: the proportion of 65+ in society). At least that’s what demographics scholars say. For that you’d need to import babies…

Those 500K new people you take in (equivalent of a provincial capital city) each year need plenty of services medical, education, security, restauration, and so much more including housing.

The question is: Does this new population, family reunification and all, come with the capacity to provide such services for itself?

The answer to that is clearly no which means that existing capacities will be stressed.

However mass immigration does increase consumption and demand as a whole (more so than productivity which is per capita basically stagnant in Canada), which increases nominal GDB and fiscal revenues (…) and is not so much a problem if the increased demand can be matched with productivity and therefore does not cause inflation. Unfortunately this scheme seems to have run its course.

So in short massive immigration does not solve population aging and is inflationary, just another version of printing money.

In case you haven’t noticed massive immigration is nothing but another way for failing semi socialist states to temporarily sustain themselves a bit longer. Like I said just another version of printing money.

#73 Harry Beach on 10.10.22 at 7:17 pm

I live in small town Nova Scotia. Lots of black, yellow and brown faces of people who speak with accents are working jobs in restaurants, stores, on farms and in the few factories we have. They have been showing up here in numbers over the past five years. They are mostly working jobs that folks born here don’t want or don’t have the skills to do. In many ways these newcomers are keeping this little town growing and functioning. Without them we would be in serious trouble here on the east coast. So no not all immigrants are going to big smoke cities like TO, and Vancouver. I hear similar things from folks in rural PEI and NB as well.

#74 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.10.22 at 7:21 pm

#54 Who can afford 2.1 kids these days on 10.10.22 at 6:09 pm
My wife and I waited until 35 to have our first child because we wanted to ensure we had a stable base in order to raise him properly i.e a house and some savings. Since both of us don’t work minimum wage jobs we do not qualify for baby bonus or anything of the sort. I’m not complaining about that but my point is that maybe a reason Canadians aren’t reproducing enough is because the cost of raising a child is growing exponentially in this country. Music lessons, sports, tutoring, college/university costs aren’t cheap and if one wishes to raise a well adjusted child in this ever increasing competitive world food and shelter aren’t enough. If the government wishes to encourage people to have a 2.1 + child family they should follow basic economic theory and introduce incentives. Perhaps childrens activities could be tax deductible for example. Children’s clothes/diapers could pay less gst, these are just ideas off the top of my head, someone tell me what I’m missing.
——————-
Off the top, I’d say you should not have any children.
From my experience I can say that simple people produce the most well adjusted and “normal” offsprings.
Highly strung Over thinkers don’t.

#75 BCWally on 10.10.22 at 7:29 pm

Thanks for the article Garth, it really is the truth and for sharing Old Ron’s opinion. The housing situation is also affecting the birth rate according to my twentysomething kids, they don’t want to have children until achieving the security of their own home.
I know there are some comments that you really can’t mention here because they are highly sensitive. You have mentioned that the housing shortage is fiction, and I think I know why so I guess I’ll say it.
There are too many people out there with multiple homes, renting out the extras. This all started with books like “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” that extol the virtues of building wealth through real estate. It is now a deep part of Canadian investment culture and perhaps the only significant one as most people are averse to financial markets.
The current rapid rise in interest rates may resolve this and free up many more homes for young couples to buy as buying and renting in a falling market will be financial suicide.
Successive governments have eased the rules and actually encouraged this kind of investing through tax law, such as the write off of interest on a loan against a renter’s income, plus the incredibly lax lending requirements of HELOC’s to achieve the extra house or two.
The question now of course would be how to preserve the wealth of those multi house owners and free up homes for other people to own, not an easy solution.
I’m hoping you write an article on how that could be achieved. I’m inviting other blog dogs to share their opinions on what would work.
My own suggestion would be to lower tax rates on dividend income, interest income, and capital gains on liquid investments in the markets. That would be accompanied with eliminating the previously mentioned tax break on the loan against renter income.
I’m not sure if that is possible to include only investments in Canadian corps to qualify.
Show me the incentive, and I’ll show you the result.
Here’s hoping you or the other blog dogs come up with some reasonable and intelligent solutions to this pressing issue.

#76 Wrk.dover on 10.10.22 at 7:30 pm

#64 Faron on 10.10.22 at 6:54 pm
Garth, why are the abortion numbers in your post?
__________________________________

under 84,000 babies are aborted. And on average about 55,000 people emigrate out of the country.

Because it is greater than outmigration.

Now, call me names, Faron.

#77 Sail Away on 10.10.22 at 7:36 pm

“By the way 95.1% of us came from somewhere. And we’re not so bad.”

———

Actually, 100% of us came from somewhere. Fact.

#78 Old Boot on 10.10.22 at 7:42 pm

CMHC says we need 3.5 million new homes by 2030 to achieve affordability.

We simply don’t have the labour capacity to build more than 2.3 million units. We won’t persuade kids to go into trades if they can’t afford the homes they themselves built, nor will we immigrate enough tradespeople for the same reasons.

Affordability is gone for good. Communism, here we come.

Get ready for your state-supplied, 3D printed, plastic igloo home. Convenient because you can carry it on your back like a turtle’s shell, achieving both labour mobility and reconciliation here on Turtle Island.

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/construction-worker-shortage-hits-housing-affordability-cmhc

Happy Thanksgiving

#79 Get off the hamster wheel! How to quiet quit absolutely everything on 10.10.22 at 7:46 pm

Sure, you can strive less in the workplace. But what happens when you dial down bigger things, like parenting, relationships and even showering?

Can you quiet quit your relationship?

Can you quiet quit a friendship?

Can you quiet quit members of your family?

Can you quiet quit parenting?

Can you quiet quit social media?

Can you quiet quit superfluous grooming?

Can you quiet-quit highbrow culture?

Absolutely!

#80 Brian on 10.10.22 at 7:46 pm

From Clown World Today!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/nobel-economics-ben-bernanke-douglas-diamond-philip-dybvig-1.6611923

Music parody of Ben Bernanke!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1579618251570843649

#81 QuebAnglo on 10.10.22 at 7:54 pm

Check out the immigration debate in Quebec. Basically the ethno-nationalist Franco-supremacist parties (CAQ, PQ) are saying that it would be impossible for the Quebec ‘nation’ to have so many immigrants and maintain their ‘language’ and ‘culture’. Yet it seems like Quebec outside of Montreal is ground zero of the labour shortage. Restaurants are open only a few days a week, hospitals severely understaffed, and when I look around everyone is really effing old.

Francois Legault is saying Quebec can only ‘accommodate’ 50K immigrants per year (roughly 30% of those leave for other provinces or countries within a few years). It would be ‘suicide’ for the Quebec culture to accept more immigrants, he says.

Of course, whatever revenue shortfall occurs in Quebec because of it old population will continue to be covered by equalization from provinces that accept immigrants and have younger populations, like BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario.

Of course, only in Quebec can political leaders say such things about immigration without being considered racist. But it is racist, of course, and the rest of Canada should stop paying for Quebec’s Franco-supremacist and ethno-nationalist policies.

#82 ElGatoNeroYVR on 10.10.22 at 7:59 pm

#54 Who can afford 2.1 kids these days on 10.10.22 at 6:09 pm
I believe family unit based taxation would be the simpler and encourage the formation and resilience of families which are still the best way to bring up a well adjusted child or two.
We need to simplify our tax code in order to reduce the bureaucracy that plagues the governments.
That is where a flat tax and UBI would win in the long term, less programs to administer , less soul sucking bureaucrats with their miriad of forms and qualification requirements .
Money for families ,not unelected bureaucrats and their little empires.

#83 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 10.10.22 at 8:03 pm

You can get a half decent condo in Edmonton for under 60 g’s right now and a home for well under 400, then get a loaf of bread at the Superstore for 95c. What more do you want?

#84 Don Guillermo on 10.10.22 at 8:10 pm

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 4:40 pm
This documentary was released less than 2 weeks before Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart hopes to be re-elected.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwin6KrBwdb6AhWnFTQIHcAjCTMQwqsBegQICBAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DPT8OU8Yhs_s&usg=AOvVaw2naabK5GSLfGx8Nxg46W87

This excellent documentary is 55 minutes long.

For anyone that can’t spend the entire 55 minutes.
Log in at 19:55 mark and watch 10 minutes.

It will give you a bit of an idea as to what the Vancouver Downtown Eastside “tent city” has become.
Total anarchy.
ALL under Mayor Stewarts’ politically correct reign of error.
And this area is a 5 minute walk from the main cruise ship terminal for tens of thousands of tourists.
Tour busses have started cruising Hastings St with tourists…….
@@@@@@@@
Thanks for that. I intended to watch the 10 minutes you highlighted but ended up watching it all. I had no idea it had gotten that far out of hand. I guess it’s been a few years since I’ve been back. It’s seems the ideological approach comes back full circle and bites a lot. It’s ironic Ponzies afraid of Mexico.

#85 Concerned Citizen on 10.10.22 at 8:12 pm

Both can be true. We can need immigration to support the boomers, while at the same time high immigration can lead to higher home prices.

I don’t understand your unwillingness to admit that the forces of supply and demand prevail in the housing market, too. Higher immigration leads to higher demand, and therefore all things equal, higher home prices.

For years, governments run predominantly by boomers have increased immigration numbers, while at the same time doing next to nothing on infrastructure and housing stock to prepare for the higher numbers. The result is now increasingly clear to most.

Yes low interest rates are also a big factor, but the rest of world had low interest rates during this period and our housing bubble puts every other housing market to shame.

As for the low fertility rate, I wonder if policymakers have considered for a moment that people that can’t afford to support themselves – largely due to the housing bubble – aren’t exactly chomping at the bit to bring children into the world. And as you point out, the housing bubble is so stratospherically bad now that it may drive qualified immigrants away, if it hasn’t already.

We should decrease the rate of immigration to Harper levels for a couple years while we build more houses. And we should revamp our immigration policy to bring in more skilled tradespeople to assist in building those homes and other infrastructure. Bringing in white collar rich people is all well and good, but who is going to build the things we need for society and the economy to continue to function for all rather than a few?

#86 Sail Away on 10.10.22 at 8:30 pm

#37 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 4:40 pm

This documentary was released less than 2 weeks before Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart hopes to be re-elected.

It will give you a bit of an idea as to what the Vancouver Downtown Eastside “tent city” has become.

Total anarchy.

———-

Do you think defunding the police would help? Many here are just ‘people experiencing the need to be violent criminals’.

A little empathy, bro.

#87 Houses per capita on 10.10.22 at 8:37 pm

#52 Shawn on 10.10.22 at 5:49 pm

Has the number of houses per capita gone down? I highly doubt it.

————-

Well, has it gone down? The answer to this question is central to the debate and yet, I’ve never seen an actual chart or statistic referencing this data point.

Anyone have a link to this data if it even exists? Seems like a great metric to track.

#88 Michael in-north-york on 10.10.22 at 8:37 pm

#6 Lisa on 10.10.22 at 3:07 pm

Here is the question, I just don’t get in all this – why do we have a housing shortage in Canada? We have more than enough land. And even if people were investing in homes in large numbers wouldn’t that just add to the supply and keep costs low? Building more homes isn’t rocket science so where is the bottle neck to this?
===

Many causes. First of all, zoning bylaws, you can’t build multistorey condos or rentals in many places. Sometimes for a good reason, there is no capacity for the new electric, water, sewer lines. But very often, just because the residents don’t want more people in their area and lobby their politicians to keep the multistoreys out.

Then, municipal bylaws designed against rental suites in the single family houses. Try to add a new entrance to the basement, it requires a permit and becomes a big quest.

And then, tenant protection legislation. It protects tenants from bad landlords, but also makes it hard to get rid of bad tenants who do not pay or cause disturbance. Home owners who have extra space and could become responsible landlords, don’t want the hassle and do not offer their space if they aren’t desperate for cash.

It is not a problem that young families cannot afford to buy a house. The problem is that they can’t even afford to rent.

Problems with private rentals can’t be solved quickly. The only quick solution is that Ontario, Quebec, B.C. provincial governments enter the rental market, brush the bylaws, and build a massive amount of rental units in Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Vancouver.

Then people will get rentals that aren’t too cozy but livable. And that will reign in the prices on the private rental market, and reduce the pressure to own a house or condo.

#89 Flop… on 10.10.22 at 8:38 pm

Aunty Jane, here is the Vancouver parking spot equivalent…

M48BC

https://www.properstar.ca/listing/82944606

——————————————-
From the previous listing.

“With more than 300 days of sunshine per year, Crete is truly the sunniest place in Europe, giving everyone the opportunity to experience an endless summer.”

#90 Linda on 10.10.22 at 8:43 pm

Blaming immigrants for our own poor financial choices is yet another way to pretend we didn’t do this to ourselves. As for them leaving Canada or thinking about leaving, I’ve heard that lots of folks see Canada as a stepping stone into the USA. Despite growing hostility to immigration of any sort, the USA is still seen as the land of milk & honey, where one can prosper & enjoy the good life oneself before shuffling off one’s mortal coil. Ironically, not a few would be USA immigrants headed north to Canada when they discovered the USA was serious about returning would be immigrants to their country of origin.

I’ve no issue with immigrants. What I do have an issue with is not ensuring all that human potential is being used to make life better for everyone here. The sheer waste of not letting trained professionals practice their profession without insisting they take all the training over again before allowing them to practice is mind boggling stupidity. I don’t know why we do not have a system to have those people 1) apprentice under a qualified doctor/nurse for six months to 1 year to ensure the immigrant is conversant with medical technology here & can communicate with patients in either official language & 2) have challenge exams which mirror any final exams various professionals must pass prior to being granted the right to practice. Ditto for any trades.

#91 BK on 10.10.22 at 8:45 pm

Is there no correlation between fertility rate and affordability???

#92 Keith on 10.10.22 at 8:45 pm

@ #15 Sail Away

“Skills, capital, ambition, fertility, and modesty.”

Modesty? Not even by American standards. Your ego recently voted to separate from Canada. Modest people don’t mention their art purchases on a real estate/financial blog, let alone all your other lifestyle decisions.

#93 DOWn on 10.10.22 at 8:57 pm

Just had lunch with a couple from Singapore, afterwards we looked at some waterfront homes on the Sunshine Coast of BC.
They laughed at how cheap they are.
And they are going to buy.
I guess it’s a matter of perspective..

#94 Not New on 10.10.22 at 9:06 pm

#42 wallflower on 10.10.22 at 5:06 pm

Where are the stats on immigrants who do not stay?
Is Canada increasingly processing passport collectors?

———————————————–

meh. This has been going on for decades. Of course there are tons of people who simply want a Canadian passport to enable them, not because they have any intention of actually contributing anything to Canada.

Fun fact: our genial blog host coined the term “Canadians of Convenience”.

More relevant now than ever. CBSA officer friend says he processes folks all the time with Canadian passports who can’t speak a word of English or French.

Canada: the stepping stone country. A means to an end.

That reference was to a disparate situation, nothing to do with immigration. – Garth

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 9:17 pm

From Friday night to this Monday morning Vancouver City Police recieved 1500 calls.
153 were priority one (violence).
One person was shot in the chest with a crossbow bolt on Hastings Street Tent city.
3 people had gasoline poured on them and threatened to be lit on fire at Hastings st
Another knife brandishing at CRAB Park just after 4 people were stabbed and slashed at CRAB park last week.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj6qZqIgNf6AhXsGTQIHSl7BjQQFnoECBQQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbc.ctvnews.ca%2Fsuspect-arrested-police-seek-additional-victims-after-crab-park-stabbing-spree-1.6101880&usg=AOvVaw2UrdMbpd58MLgy9CIwNDhv

Its a gong show and its getting worse.

Mayor Kennedy Stewart pulls his invisibility act once again.
Election next weekend.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 9:21 pm

@#86 Sgt. Sail
“A little empathy, bro.”

+++
They need discipline.
A boot camp.
25 mile hikes in the sun.
Bottled water and coffee crisp bars every 5 miles.

Are you up to the drill Sarge?

#97 To the point. on 10.10.22 at 9:32 pm

Explaining immigration is never easy in this country. The MSM focuses on the human-interest angles. As Garth points out, it is really all about demographics and their economic consequences.

Secretive GOC polling on Canadians’ attitudes to immigration has ALWAYS shown how unpopular it was. Still, regardless of who was in power in Ottawa, immigration levels have remained amongst the highest in the world.

Canadian politicians have learned to handle the potentially hot potato by playing special interest groups. Lawyers, churches and other NGO’s are consulted during “levels planning”. Ethnic groups are wooed at election times as pay-back for bringing in “cousin-brother.” The Timmies crowd is fed bafflegab on bringing in highly skilled workers to fill short-term vacancies in the labour market. Yea right. We all know who actually builds housing in Canada now. It is the most recently arrived labour. Mexicans, Afghans, etc.

Immigration is a great Canadian tradition. However, importing hundreds of thousands annually is also a salve rather than a serious attempt to reform ourselves or train our own skilled labour. To date, professional associations, unions and provincial accreditation bureaucracies have done little but throw up barriers to foreign workers.

As I see it, Canada’s politicians have kept quiet about the negative, played the interest groups for political advantage, and largely accepted the demographers’ bottom line. If we hope to sustain our pokey, outmoded Canadian capitalist, first world system and lifestyle, WE MUST HAVE IMMIGRATION.

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 9:33 pm

@#66 Nephew Floppie

Crete!
Excellent choice for Auntie Jane..

Good lad.

#99 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.10.22 at 9:38 pm

95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 9:17 pm
From Friday night to this Monday morning Vancouver City Police recieved 1500 calls.
153 were priority one (violence).
One person was shot in the chest with a crossbow bolt on Hastings Street Tent city.
3 people had gasoline poured on them and threatened to be lit on fire at Hastings st
Another knife brandishing at CRAB Park just after 4 people were stabbed and slashed at CRAB park last week.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj6qZqIgNf6AhXsGTQIHSl7BjQQFnoECBQQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbc.ctvnews.ca%2Fsuspect-arrested-police-seek-additional-victims-after-crab-park-stabbing-spree-1.6101880&usg=AOvVaw2UrdMbpd58MLgy9CIwNDhv

Its a gong show and its getting worse.

Mayor Kennedy Stewart pulls his invisibility act once again.
Election next weekend.
——————————-
Yep,
Time for FURZMAN to dust off his cape and sweep the bad guys off the street.
Donnie G. would be the perfect sidekick.

#100 Søren Angst on 10.10.22 at 9:38 pm

#89 Flop…

Real “Villa” (country estate in Italiano, not Greek) at casa.it

25,240 of them all over Italia

From 350.000€ to 750.000€ and best of all, you are not stuck on some island where you will get cabin fever soon enough …

Sorted by Most Expensive to Least.

https://www.casa.it/srp/?tr=vendita&propertyTypes=villa&priceMin=350000&priceMax=750000&exclude_auction=true&sortType=price_desc&propertyTypeGroup=case

Crete hasn’t a clue about La Dolce Vita nor do the Greeks. Then again, I close an eye as you are from OZ (“Si porta pazienza”).

Only 1 country that has La Dolce Vita and she is

Il Bel Paese.

[and the food and wine aren’t bad either in Italia, the odd point of interest – unless you are wed to Retsina like the Greeks are]

#101 Nonplused on 10.10.22 at 9:52 pm

I think zero population growth would be ideal for a couple of years. A little breather to see where we’re at and let housing affordability return. Maybe the job market will return to the point where women can afford to stay home a few years and have kids. But that wouldn’t mean zero immigration, given the current numbers.

#102 Søren Angst on 10.10.22 at 9:56 pm

Garth, the only beef I had about Immigration when living in Canada as of 7 years ago and before was this

Concentrated in 3 or so Cdn cities.

And there are good reasons for that BUT a lot of these Immigrants are Professionals such as Doctors, Nurses that are barred from practicing due to professional organizations and their protocols which leaves me scratching my head.

There are shortages of qualified professionals outside of the large Cdn cities and Immigration should also aim at satisfying the needs of these communities.

Make it a 3 year stint or something in smaller towns, cities and then let Immigrants, citizens by then you’d hope, decide where they want to live.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/89-657-x/2016002/tbl/tbl2-eng.htm

It seems at least once a year your read some Immigrant Doctor or PhD is driving taxi somewhere in Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal because the professional organizations will not acknowledge their credentials.

Seems unfair to me and in need of change. Also, harmonize professional credentials for all Immigrant source countries would be another thing that needs doing.

FWIW

#103 AM in MN on 10.10.22 at 10:14 pm

#67 CJohnC on 10.10.22 at 6:55 pm
10 TurnerNation on 10.10.22 at 3:15 pm
#36 Faron on 10.09.22 at 12:47 pm
“because you live in a functional society that cares for its citizenry”

Faron has it totally backwards. (This is where “the left” gets it wrong.)
>> I built what I have as I’m a functional CITIZEN that cares for [my] SOCIETY.

Bang on the money

————————————————–

Totally agree. Functional Citizens create functional societies, not the other way around.

Thus, there is a limit to the annual % of immigrants from disfunctional societies that can be easily absorbed. In a generation or two, they will adopt the beliefs of their new home, nut it takes time.

Check out the gang violence in Suburban Vancouver, but also look at those of a Chinese ethnic background who are about to hand defeat to a white marxist grifter from the east coast, who went west after helping destroy the economy in the east, and became Mayor of Vancouver.

Saturday is coming soon, and hope for a beautiful city is about to return.

I don’t actually think anyone in the Ottawa/TO press world is watching, or has any idea who Ken Sim is, or his upstart party, or about the earthquake this will cause to the established Liberal order, and the organizational help it will give to PP.

My guess is that he takes the City Council and School Board as well, and it will be retirement time for marxists all over Vancouver.

#104 Sam on 10.10.22 at 10:20 pm

My kids graduating from top business school in Canada. Since they were young I taught them to move to USA when they grow up. One got the job offer and second will leave next year. The salary is almost double of what make in Canada. They will NEVER come back. I took oath from them. After that, I am disposing off everything and move outta here too. So long Canada.

#105 45north on 10.10.22 at 10:26 pm

The overwhelming reason houses cost too much is because mortgage rates were too low. We financialized real estate. We flipped, gorged, speculated, leveraged and FOMO’d our way into an economic addiction that now has us trapped.

we’re trapped. Rising interest rates and lower house prices have not made real estate more affordable. House prices are dropping but people with mortgages are paying more. Developers have to be holding back. They are paying more for labour but the price they get for their product is dropping.

Mortgage rates were too low for too long. For the last 20 years, mortgage rates have steadily dropped. They now have to rise. Nobody knows how high and how long.

People are looking for answers. Quick answers. The Ontario Government commissioned the Housing Affordability Task Force but dropped it just before the election, last summer. They didn’t want the Task Force to be an issue. Neither did the other political parties. People haven’t figured it out yet but there aren’t any quick answers. We’re trapped.

#106 Axehead on 10.10.22 at 10:35 pm

Correction: The abortion numbers are likely much higher as many are not reported.

Opinion: ALL of us are immigrants, even natives, since we all came from somewhere, albeit some have a longer genealogical ancestry.

Fact: Those children aborted were human beings with DNA unique and different from the mother and father; they were potential Canadians; some may have been an Einstein or a Beethoven or a Helen Keller.

#107 Faron on 10.10.22 at 10:55 pm

#67 CJohnC on 10.10.22 at 6:55 pm
10 TurnerNation on 10.10.22 at 3:15 pm
#36 Faron on 10.09.22 at 12:47 pm
“because you live in a functional society that cares for its citizenry”

Faron has it totally backwards. (This is where “the left” gets it wrong.)
>> I built what I have as I’m a functional CITIZEN that cares for [my] SOCIETY.

Bang on the money

Nope. Do what you have done here in Russia, in Iran, in Syria, in Uganda and tell me you would be at the same place as where you are in Canada (assuming you’ve achieved much of anything).

#108 Cowtown Cowboy on 10.10.22 at 10:56 pm

#52 Shawn on 10.10.22 at 5:49 pm

Dude, stop pumping up AB, we’re full! There’s already enough wing nuts on the road every long weekend to make riding the Harley down right nerve wracking at times.

I here Brampton is nice this time of year..

#109 Faron on 10.10.22 at 11:01 pm

#64 Faron on 10.10.22 at 6:54 pm
Another day, another right wing USA American trying to manipulate Canada rightward (xenophobic and overtly hyper corporate). No bueno. Don’t listen Canada.

Garth, why are the abortion numbers in your post? Pretty irrelevant unless you were to document all the ways Canadians aren’t having kids, of which there are many.

The natural question is how many pregnancies are ended for economic reasons? – Garth

Thanks, that makes sense. Highlights the unfolding disaster in the US after Dobbs where women who need that option and can’t afford to travel to states with legal abortion are stuck with raising another child they can’t afford and that will add to the chain of poverty.

#110 Ponnaps on 10.10.22 at 11:07 pm

All RE is local.. majority of immigrants land in the GTA due to job opportunities.. Massive inward remittances from migrant countries actively encouraged by the federal govt… what else will fire up this comatose economy..

First there was colonization now there is real estate…
both mechanisms for transfer of “3rd world” wealth to develop and sustain western nations…
deliberate govt inaction, willful encouragement to bring in immigrant funds from back home and sucking up of immigrant incomes into real estate thereby indebting them for a couple of generations.. Canada Australia NZ it’s the same playbook… modern version of economic slavery and colonization..

Adding these up Breitbart is right.. except the outcome they are projecting is incorrect.. on the contrary whats happening is excellent for Canada in the long run, its the immigrants who will be victims in the long run…

#111 Doug t on 10.10.22 at 11:10 pm

#95 fartz

We have an epidemic on our hands and NOBODY is coming to the table with how to deal with it – recall days gone by of “institutions” where people with major mental health problems were placed? Yes they were mostly archaic and brutal but what if we modernized such places to house those of severe mental health issues and severe addiction problems- remove the stigma, fresh ideas as to care for those in need and at the same time clean up the city cores that have been gutted by the exposure and daily exhaustion of living with this social killer

#112 Hampstead on 10.10.22 at 11:26 pm

DELETED

#113 Summertime on 10.10.22 at 11:28 pm

Vast majority of new immigrants are leaving the country within 5 years of arrival, above 60 % and growing, from 450 k around 300 k will leave right after getting the citizenship.

Why?
1. Astronomical cost of living

2. Low wages and high taxes

3. Rapidly deteriorating services

4. Deteriorating practical education that is unable to guarantee a good job.

5. Location and lifestyle

6. Weather

This place is target for immigrants coming either from very poor or war torn countries, i.e. it an expensive refugee campus and cheap labour camp at the same time.

The skilled immigrants program is total failure as the productivity is constantly declining despite the influx of supposedly qualified labour.

The hard cold truth is that it is totally unattractive for people with decent professions from countries with in-demand passport and relatively decent lifestyle.

For the rest, once they have the passport, the gig is mostly over.

The deep provincial mentality, the supper credit bubble add to the bitter experience, there are not many people who would waste their life now that the house ownership ‘dream’ is over and the new generation has no chance in life whatsoever.

Those who ‘succeeded’ in the past generations, the baby boomers will pay the price indirectly with the inability of their kids to achieve even remotely what they have ‘achieved’.

In short – well paying job, lifestyle, kids, education, retirement, every single one of those becoming practically mission impossible.

The reduced fertility rate is indicator of the declining real standard of living and the practical inability to reproduce.

Now that the green grass season is over, the herd has to be reduced and the farm owners choose the credit bubble as the instrument.

#114 TurnerNation on 10.10.22 at 11:38 pm

Let’s take a look at our ‘free’ (for many, not I) Medical system. Presenting just the facts:
84,000 abortion.
10,064 medically assisted deaths last year.

This is subset totals to 94,064. Or, 257/day. Or, 10.7 each hour. I’m still wrapping my head around the fact of doctors/nurses uhh ‘taking care of’ (for want of a better euphemistic double entendre) of almost 100,000 entities each year in this country.
O well their body their choice right.

International Student visas: up to 150,000 granted each year, they will make use of our meagre services?

Kanada is not a serious country. 2nd largest by mass. No high speed trains.
Constant threat of Balkanization/seperation. Looking at you, AB and QC. Say, where are also the cheapest urban homes located?

If we are in WW3 and wars are fought over LAND…what to the ruling globalists have in mind. Stripping out the resources? Why not.

.CTV Question Period @ctvqp Alberta Premier-Designate
@ABDanielleSmith says she will move quickly on her proposed Alberta Sovereignty Act. What is her response to critics who say it’s unconstitutional? Does she have a mandate to implement it? Read more: https://ctvnews.ca/politics/i-think-we-would-win-that-battle-danielle-smith-promises-to-fight-for-resource-development-in-alberta-1.6101948

#115 Calgary on 10.11.22 at 12:02 am

https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1579334524882026496

Higher mortgage rates on the card. How high can it climb? 7%? 10%?

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.11.22 at 12:03 am

111 Doug t on 10.10.22 at 11:10 pm
#95 fartz

We have an epidemic on our hands and NOBODY is coming to the table with how to deal with it – recall days gone by of “institutions” where people with major mental health problems were placed? Yes they were mostly archaic and brutal but what if we modernized such places to house those of severe mental health issues and severe addiction problems- remove the stigma, fresh ideas as to care for those in need and at the same time clean up the city cores that have been gutted by the exposure and daily exhaustion of living with this social killer.
—————————
Very well said.
One issue that I’m having is:
How does BC get reimbursed for the “patients” that are coming from other Provinces?
Maybe our resident Capitalist Shawn has an answer.
What would Adam Smith do?

#117 Tom from Mississauga on 10.11.22 at 12:12 am

It’s a global reality that fertility rates drop as education and income levels rise. – Garth

Wrong!

On the farm kids are free labour people have as many as possible, with INDUSTRIALIZATION people move into town for better paying service and manufacturing jobs, in town kids are expensive pieces of furniture so people have less of them.
The developing world (particularly China, Korea) skipped the suburb and went right to small high condo, their birth rates will/have plunged below ours.
Advanced countries that have avoided low fertility include Alberta, US and France. The reason being a family can be economically viable in the countryside where a large family is possible.

#118 Tom from Mississauga on 10.11.22 at 12:14 am

The shortage of homes thing we keep hearing is ridiculous, there’s a “for rent” sign outside every apartment building in Mississauga.

#119 yvr_lurker on 10.11.22 at 12:32 am

Trouble is when a young couple has to shell out $35,000 in after tax income to rent a tiny Condo, many are turning around and leaving. I talk to just about anyone. (a common trait among old farts) and I take a keen interest in the diverse lives of folks who were not born in Canada. I have found that if they arrived in Canada pre boom (Basically pre-Trudeau) they are fine. They got a foot hold, a house, and a family that is doing well. But since 2016 and beyond, it is very difficult for someone who arrived with limited resources to get started in their new country, fully 1/3 think about leaving within 12 months.
—————-

Ron has a great read on the situation and identifies the key issues since 2016. The question I have is why are Canadian families not having more kids (and therefore we need to revert to very high immigration totals to replenish and expand… with these new arrivals generally coming from a worse environment). Is the situation with our young Canadians that they are not interested in having families, or is it because the cost of living (renting apartments, seeking affordable childcare) such that having only one or zero kids is the only reasonable financial choice. If this is the situation then we are in a really sorry state of affairs, and particularly so since T2 came to power.

#120 random comment on 10.11.22 at 12:34 am

Rather than opening up ‘more land’ for development, and pushing the suburbs further out into the boonies (making commuting even worse), wouldn’t it be better to simply change the rules to allow more dense European or Asian style housing in our cities? Even ugly Russian ‘commie blocks’ are a more sensible and efficient use of space than most urban planning we have in North America today. Not everyone needs their own single family house connected by massive highways. That 50’s dream is completely unsustainable, and it’s becoming more obvious every day.

#121 T-Rev on 10.11.22 at 12:48 am

Whether people like it or not, immigration is the only way Canadian society avoids population and social collapse in the short term. Maybe someday people will start breeding again if the economic conditions for more children become favorable, but trends takes time to reverse and if you think it’s hard to find a doctor, mechanic, or plumber now wait five years. They’ve been warning us all about the demographic bulge since I was on high school 25 years ago. But as with nearly everything, scar for maybe CFC policy, no one does anything of real meaning until it’s too late. Our politics And attention spans both operate on short cycles.

Pendulums swing and the arc of history is long- some day, canada will be affordable again. But there could be one or even two lost generations in between now and then. The implications are enormous.

In the meantime, Alberta is calling.

#122 jim on 10.11.22 at 12:52 am

People aren’t having kids in Canada because housing in the urban areas where the jobs are, is just too expensive.
Rent is high as well.

#123 MalcolmM on 10.11.22 at 12:53 am

Immigration just kicks the can down the road – immigrants will themselves require support when they become seniors.

Of course artificially low interest rates contributed to our housing affordability issues.

Here’s a novel concept – there can be more than one cause for an issue. Both low interest rates and massive immigration are factors.

#124 House of Comeuppance on 10.11.22 at 1:10 am

Immigrants pay about half the taxes that established Canadians pay but they about use the same levels of government services so at the immigration numbers we have now immigrants cost the Canadian taxpayer around 23 billion a year. This is well documented and can be easily Googled.

#125 Dr V on 10.11.22 at 1:46 am

43 MR – google “Generation Jones”

#126 Dr V on 10.11.22 at 1:53 am

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/hong-kongs-property-market-tumbling-000011989.html
(Source: Bloomberg)

“Despite the falling prices, affordability isn’t getting any better. In fact, apartments in the city are on track to become the least accessible to buyers in 24 years due to a tightening monetary environment.”

#127 Pierre on 10.11.22 at 2:04 am

Happy thanksgiving Garth and other writers,
Keep up the good insights to guide people like me and make good decisions in our financial world.
We appreciate all the things you share everyday

#128 calgaryPhantom on 10.11.22 at 5:13 am

On the topic of reverse immigration.

I immigrated to Canada in early 2000s and spent 15 years there (paying taxes and building all sorts of cool IT things working with big telcos), I left Canada 3 years ago….as much as I love the country, I find it hard to justify going back…

high taxes – check
unaffordability – check
work stress – check
extreme weather – check
problamatic healthcare system – check
low savings – check

Those who say immigrants are the problems…..well, very soon immigrants will look for a stronger business case to make Canada their home.

#129 Dharma Bum on 10.11.22 at 6:49 am

#16 Shawn

And the fact that everyone wants a house these days to have more toilets than butts to occupy those toilets.
——————————————————————————————————–

Ahhh yes!

Variety is the spice of life.

Now….which loo to skip to today, my darlin’?

#130 Gordo on 10.11.22 at 7:10 am

Here’s the immigration trick. It’s easier to get into Canada as a visible minority than it is to immigrate into UK/EU. Even easier to get into Canada if you apply through Quebec. But it’s really easy to use a Canadian passport to immigrate into UK / EU. New immigrants use the newly printed CDN passport to apply to UK because its easier to immigrate from Canada than it is to apply from India, Pakistan etc. That’s why we see 90% of immigrants with fresh CDN passports leaving as soon as they get citizenship. Reason is because they have closer cultural , language and social ties in UK whereas Canada is loading pockets of certain cultures and not others.

#131 Dharma Bum on 10.11.22 at 7:12 am

We need more population.

If the locals aren’t procreating (I helped make 3 kids – I’ve done my part), then we have to import humans.

However, the country needs a PLAN to deal with and capitalize on the increased population. More cities (towns, settlements, villages, whatever you want to call them), more infrastructure, more transportation, more industry, more businesses, more COMPETITION.

Prices of everything in Canada must come down. Supply of everything must go up. We have to get back to manufacturing things here for a population large enough to consume our own goods.

We need a minimum of 150 million people in this country to make it economically viable in the long run.

If the government seriously worked with industry starting today, instead of wasting its time on woke ideology and rhetoric, I believe this goal can be achieved by 2150.

Nothing like planning for the future.

Sorry kids, nothing will improve in your lifetime. But get to work now so your great grandkids can have a life.

#132 Dharma Bum on 10.11.22 at 7:17 am

“So, who foots the bill if the taxpayer base erodes?’ – Garth
——————————————————————————————————

Quintillian and his ilk.

Keep working. My OAS needs funding.

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 7:23 am

@#99 Ponzies Platitudes
“Time for FURZMAN to dust off his cape and sweep the bad guys off the street.
Donnie G. would be the perfect sidekick.”

+++
Ahhh yes the cynical zippy one line’ers from the Ponze.
Pray tell Ponzie.
Aside from filling the asylums.
Do you have ANY original ideas?
Or is it just easier to sit back and snark.
Inst there a bargain basement, past its due date, “Coffee crisp” with your name on it?
Retired accountant, rotten toothed, bliss.

#134 Eric on 10.11.22 at 7:28 am

DELETED (White replacement theory)

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 7:32 am

@#113 Summertime
“This place is target for immigrants coming either from very poor or war torn countries, i.e. it an expensive refugee campus and cheap labour camp at the same time.

The skilled immigrants program is total failure as the productivity is constantly declining despite the influx of supposedly qualified labour.

The hard cold truth is that it is totally unattractive for people with decent professions from countries with in-demand passport and relatively decent lifestyle.”

++++
Yep.
More cheap, unskilled labour from war torn third world countries isn’t what we need..

We need skilled trades, doctors, engineers, scientists, etc etc etc.
Sadly.
Those people are too smart to waste their time in this cesspool of Woke, pc, navel picking, blame filled, Nanny state.
Mirror gazing politicians and slothful bureaucrats protecting their fiefdom seems to be the order of the day..

#136 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 7:57 am

@#114 TurnerNation

Appointed Preem Danielle Smith.
Another populist nutbar waving the “Separation Flag” for the suckers that believe her..
Where does she think they’re going to go?
The US?
Pffft.
They wouldnt touch that with a 10 ft barge pole.
Or better yet.
A landlocked “country” that would have to negotiate trade deals, borders, transportation agreements, customs, taxes (yes, lots of taxes would come to Albertastan).

Careful what you wish for Alberta.
BC border guards might charge you an immigration tax just to drive to your BC lakefront cottage..

#137 Jane24 on 10.11.22 at 7:58 am

Dearest Flop, it is your pompous friend Jane24 here. I love Crete, gorgeous place but it charges retired folk regular income taxes. Plus the banks there are bail in for the next crisis. No good but yes a 4 bed villa by the sea with a pool is about 450,000 cdn. I don’t want to pay taxes any more.

I love Italy and am here in the heel right now where my chuck of a medieval palace would set you back about 300,000 cdn. Living here is always complicated though as it is always right hand not knowing what the left hand is doing. Their retirement income tax deal though is just 7% on world wide income but just trying to get anything done would drive a Canadian girl insane.

I have high hopes for Portugal though and will report in when I return in late nov.

#138 Stratovarious on 10.11.22 at 8:59 am

Although I strongly agree with your premise that controlled immigration is positive for any economy, I disagree with your statement that Japan’s problems are primarily due to its aging population (and although not said, limited immigration).

Japan never recovered when its bubble economy collapsed in 1991, which is perhaps the biggest lesson for the West. And contrary to your continuous statements that stock markets always recover, the Nikkei’s top in 1989 has not been retested. Finally, the real problem in Japan was and is poor fiscal and monetary policy. On that front, the West is showing similar behavior.

#139 IHCTD9 on 10.11.22 at 9:02 am

Post-Trudeau Canada is a very recent thing. It’ll cast a long, wide shadow. It’s only just beginning. Immigrants will definitely not tolerate living in a damp basement, and working two menial jobs indefinitely. They had the wherewithal to pick up and leave their birth country – moving back would be only half the trouble.

Canada is mired in issues that have yet to fully blossom. We all know more or less what these issues are. I’d bet right now, all things considered; there’s never been a worse time to immigrate to Canada. Like I said, we barely see the tip of the iceberg.

#140 Tidewataz on 10.11.22 at 9:15 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-for-2023-warns-worst-is-yet-to-come.html

Garth, is the message still stay invested? In a bull market everyone is a genius, now when the tide goes out, nor so simple to be a guru …

Just stay invested. Life is long. It will all work out. – Garth

#141 h singh on 10.11.22 at 9:25 am

DELETED (Racist)

#142 Mike Adams on 10.11.22 at 9:27 am

#30 Ogdoad

Hey, you know what? human migration has been happening for millennia – why would we think it should be any different now? That, and climate refugees are going to start plugging boarders as well. What are we going to do, say no? Its our fault, isn’t it? We’re going to say no b/c our whiny, first world, entitled offspring deserve jobs and houses over other humans?

Newsflash for all the racist, misogynistic, homophobic nationalists living under space rocks out there (and there are LOTS – obviously under read, too…real shame) in my experience, immigrants actually work harder, have a WAY better value system, in cases highly educated, like hugging and are more open to a better life than the lazy, over weight, lefty, lonely and pompous people we have living in Canada today.

But ya’ll do a great job washing your teslas then napping…I’ve noticed…and that’s HUGE!!!

Anywho, its cold here…and the sig. is warm, if ya catch my drift – snuggle time!

Og ”

Sorry but blue-haired Antifa Marxists don’t get to determine who is racist, misogynistic, homophobic nationalists.
Now go eat some soy, and burn down buildings.

#143 Al on 10.11.22 at 9:28 am

Hi Garth,

Thank you for blog, I have been reading it for a decade and have used it to help sound out decisions (real estate, investments, retirement planning) against other perspectives. I’ve never commented, but wanted to add a positive comment from what I believe are the silent majority of readers. Your time, effort and financial perspectives are really appreciated. Keep up the good work.

PS, I was really shocked to read of your mugging and hope it hasn’t diminished your positive view.

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 9:28 am

@#137 Jane24
“I have high hopes for Portugal though and will report in when I return in late nov.

+++
Last time I checked Portugal was part of the EU.

A former co worker with dual citizenship (Porto-Canuck) had an interesting experience.
Seems his parents died.
They owned a 5 sstory apartment building in Lisbon.
He got everything in the Will.
Took about 2 years to deal with all the legalities.
Lawyers there and here dealing with the estate crap.
He flies back to Portugal with his wife and kids.
Arrested in England on an EU warrant.
Non payment of taxes.
Seems the Portuguese lawyer had pocketed the 10’s of thousands in property taxes instead of paying them.

It took him 3 days of emails, more lawyers, etc etc etc to PAY THE PROPERTY TAXES again…..

He sold the building.
Too much hassle.

#145 Sail Away on 10.11.22 at 9:51 am

Unchecked population growth is the single greatest existential threat to human existence and global biodiversity.

It’s not actually necessary that we fill up every space with more people.

If a country has open wild space, for God’s sake, leave it alone.

#146 Overheardyou on 10.11.22 at 9:56 am

After talking to a bunch of Millennial friends; most either can’t afford kids due to housing being too expensive

#147 MatG on 10.11.22 at 10:01 am

DELETED

#148 Calgary on 10.11.22 at 10:08 am

https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/posthaste-even-bigger-home-price-120036412.html

How much more the drop?

#149 Hank Scorpio on 10.11.22 at 10:09 am

I’ve had 2 employees go back to India in the last while. Both were highly educated and productive and said the same thing. As they started to settle down, the cost and quality of life in Canada were not much of an advantage over India. Add in an inhospitable climate and lack of family / familiar culture, and I can see this continuing to happen.

#150 TheDood on 10.11.22 at 10:28 am

#22 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 3:50 pm
1% immigration is ok.
But if its unskilled workers?
Whats the point?
The doctors, nurses, pilots, scientists and engineers certainly aren’t flocking to high tax, high cost of living Canada.
They’re leaving.
_________________________

Yup! And Doctors, Nurses, Pilots, Scientists and Engineers aren’t welcome here – they’re qualifications aren’t recognized in Canada haven’t you heard. Such a joke.

#151 TMac on 10.11.22 at 10:33 am

Bringing in 500k a year while developers are holding back on new construction due to rising rates is going to have an effect on pricing and availability. The inevitable recession will fix a lot of this

#152 IHCTD9 on 10.11.22 at 10:55 am

#110 Ponnaps on 10.10.22 at 11:07 pm
All RE is local.. majority of immigrants land in the GTA due to job opportunities.. Massive inward remittances from migrant countries actively encouraged by the federal govt… what else will fire up this comatose economy..

First there was colonization now there is real estate…
both mechanisms for transfer of “3rd world” wealth to develop and sustain western nations…
deliberate govt inaction, willful encouragement to bring in immigrant funds from back home and sucking up of immigrant incomes into real estate thereby indebting them for a couple of generations.. Canada Australia NZ it’s the same playbook… modern version of economic slavery and colonization..

Adding these up Breitbart is right.. except the outcome they are projecting is incorrect.. on the contrary whats happening is excellent for Canada in the long run, its the immigrants who will be victims in the long run…
________

That’s pretty much where it’s headed. Spend a pile to get here, spend a pile to get educated here, spend a pile to put a roof over your head here, work 2 jobs night and day to pay the cost of living here. 20-30 working years later (if you didn’t exit) your CPP is way low, OAS curtailed for every year short of 40 years that you lived Canada, near zero saved for retirement. Or you work till you’re 70+. The recent bulge in student Visas not only drains the student, but often also their families back home. Some put it all on the line to get their kid here – a one way “hail-Mary” gamble with zero recourse in the event of failure.

Meanwhile, I have a long paid for house, decent nest egg, two privately schooled kids who are now in Uni, and the financial horsepower to save my kids harmless in post-Trudeau Canada. Everything has come together nicely without going off the deep end. All done via two regular incomes and a 40 hr week.

The difference in standard of living, and future prospects between established born Canadians and an ever increasing number of recent immigrants has mutated into a yawning gulf. There is no way this doesn’t come to a head if it isn’t corrected – and IMHO – it won’t be. Established Canadians would be paying 100% higher taxes if it weren’t for the unabashed immigrant shake down currently underway in Canada.

#153 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.11.22 at 11:02 am

#120 random comment on 10.11.22 at 12:34 am
Rather than opening up ‘more land’ for development, and pushing the suburbs further out into the boonies (making commuting even worse), wouldn’t it be better to simply change the rules to allow more dense European or Asian style housing in our cities? Even ugly Russian ‘commie blocks’ are a more sensible and efficient use of space than most urban planning we have in North America today. Not everyone needs their own single family house connected by massive highways. That 50’s dream is completely unsustainable, and it’s becoming more obvious every day.
—————————-
You got that one right.
But the developers would not like it.
Gotta build stuff.

#154 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.11.22 at 11:14 am

#139 Ihtc9
Canada is mired in issues that have yet to fully blossom. We all know more or less what these issues are. I’d bet right now, all things considered; there’s never been a worse time to immigrate to Canada. Like I said, we barely see the tip of the iceberg.
————————
Please enlighten me what those issues would be.
As FURZ points out I’m a slow learner.
Must be my Austrian Jeans.
I yearn to see the tip of the iceberg.
Which are becoming harder to see due to Climate Change.
But that’s another topic.

#155 No country for young families on 10.11.22 at 11:15 am

DELETED (Abusive)

#156 Who can afford 2.1 kids these days on 10.11.22 at 11:19 am

#74 Pontious Pilotus
——————-
Off the top, I’d say you should not have any children.
From my experience I can say that simple people produce the most well adjusted and “normal” offsprings.
Highly strung Over thinkers don’t.

————-
Thanks for your productive answer. I’m guessing you’re one of those “simple” people that equates thinking ahead with being high strung. The world will never run out of simple people like you.

#157 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 11:25 am

#111 Doug t on 10.10.22 at 11:10 pm

#95 fartz

We have an epidemic on our hands and NOBODY is coming to the table with how to deal with it – recall days gone by of “institutions” where people with major mental health problems were placed? Yes they were mostly archaic and brutal but what if we modernized such places to house those of severe mental health issues and severe addiction problems- remove the stigma, fresh ideas as to care for those in need and at the same time clean up the city cores that have been gutted by the exposure and daily exhaustion of living with this social killer

*************

When doctors can legally expedite the deaths of mentally ill people (soon to include mature minors) via MAID, it becomes legally impossible to involuntarily detain and treat people who are a threat only to themselves.

Personality disorders fuel most of the criminality and addiction plaguing our cities, and people with personality disorders are not often responsive to treatment. Inflexible boundaries and meaningful consequences are the only means of changing their behaviours, which our judiciary currently refuses to support.

I spent over 20 years in the DTES watching this slow moving train wreck from the front seat of an ambulance, as unproven ideologies and the ‘lived experience’ of personality disordered drug addicts replaced science, data, and rule of law. This is why you’re waiting 7 hours for an ambulance, but every DTES drug od has a 3 minute response time.

The weaponization of empathy is a hallmark of certain personality disorders and it’s so corrosive and destructive. It causes medical staff burnout, apathy, and disengagement. Until logic and science are allowed to dictate policies, expect further staffing issues in front line healthcare.

This was, of course, predicted years ago when TPTB decided to let the personality-disordered, drug addicted inmates run the asylum under the astonishingly anti-science ‘lived experience’ canard.

Garbage in, garbage out.

#158 Aunty E Lee Tist on 10.11.22 at 11:29 am

Canadian born Canadians are living in skid rows and tents while international students are living fifty to a home near Seneca College. The elites win.

#159 Faron on 10.11.22 at 11:33 am

What’s that deafening, shrieking, wailing sound that also sounds about as pathetic as a litter of mewling kittens!?

Oh, it’s just IHCTD9, FURZ, TurnerNation and others bitching and moaning about Canada from the comfort of… Canada.

“But, but, it was more possible to get ahead in pre Trudeau years.”

Also, “we had it way harder than these gosh darn millennials and zoomers.”

For the love of all things good, quit wasting your god damned time complaining and fix what you can, get politically active if you “just can’t take it any more” and be happy for what you have.

Bunch of whiners. Embarrassing.

#160 Faron on 10.11.22 at 11:36 am

#145 Sail Away on 10.11.22 at 9:51 am
Unchecked population growth is the single greatest existential threat to human existence and global biodiversity.

LOL, you also have claimed that the planet is no where near carrying capacity.

Just curious, do you drive your Toyota with one foot mashing the gas and one mashing the brakes?

#161 Dragonfly58 on 10.11.22 at 12:02 pm

Sail Away, #145. So true ! Many of the 3rd world , widespread misery countries a good chunk of prospective immigrants would be hoping to leave have absolutely massive overpopulation problems.
One of the main reasons large numbers of people want to leave these places.
In my opinion , and seemingly also yours Sail Away, Canada’s relatively low population is an absolute plus.
The parts of Canada with the highest population density tend to have the worst problems, bordering on 3rd world in the most extreme cases.
You would have to be a very deluded person to think more people living in Canada { vs the current population numbers } is a thing to aim for.
More people, more , pollution, garbage, fossil fuel use, energy use in general, higher demands for fresh water and sewage treatment, more traffic congestion, larger health care needs, more schools to be built { extremely expensive, even more so for all the health care , mental health care facilities that would need to be built. And maintained.
Transportation infrastructure in general.
Canada and more or less any country can never keep up. It’s always a downward slide.
Just say no! Not anti immigration, but absolutely anti overall population numbers growth.

A larger population only benefits the small group of Canadians who want to sell you things.

A sadly uninformed comment. With massive public deficits, debts and rising taxes we are obviously struggling to hold on to current services, let alone build more houses or improve health care. Thinking we can maintain the status quo without growth is a fiction. – Garth

#162 Ronaldo on 10.11.22 at 12:05 pm

#145 Sail Away on 10.11.22 at 9:51 am
Unchecked population growth is the single greatest existential threat to human existence and global biodiversity.

It’s not actually necessary that we fill up every space with more people.

If a country has open wild space, for God’s sake, leave it alone.
——————————————————————
Fun Fact of the day:

The entire world’s population could fit inside Los Angeles.

The world’s total population is more than 7.5 billion, which obviously sounds massive. However, it might feel a little more manageable once you learn that if every single one of those people stood shoulder-to-shoulder, they could all fit within the 500 square miles of Los Angeles, according to National Geographic.

#163 Shawn on 10.11.22 at 12:06 pm

Summertime makes up a lie?

#113 Summertime on 10.10.22 at 11:28 pm claims:

Vast majority of new immigrants are leaving the country within 5 years of arrival, above 60 % and growing, from 450 k around 300 k will leave right after getting the citizenship.

*******************************
Right, no link to data to prove this claim.

How do you explain that Canada’s population as of Q3 is 38.9 million. One year ago it 39.2 million Five years ago it was 36.5 million. So a gain of 500,000 per year when it is said we are not replacing ourselves with babies. This data does not support your claim. What is your data source?

And no, “population” does not include citizens living outside of Canada.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=07&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2017&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=07&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2022&referencePeriods=20170701%2C20220701

#164 Shawn on 10.11.22 at 12:07 pm

Drat, I meant one year ago population was 38.2 million, 700,000 lower.

#165 Shawn on 10.11.22 at 12:21 pm

We need Growth?

Productivity growth is the key to rising average standards of living.

If we produce more per capita then we can consume more per capita.

I don’t know if growth in population is needed. I am certain that increased efficiency automation and productivity per person are key.

And since that world could possibly automate away jobs, We must own corporations. If you can’t earn from your labour, you MUST earn from capital.

Accumulate capital. Advise your kids to accumulate capital.

#166 Faron on 10.11.22 at 12:24 pm

#171 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.10.22 at 2:48 pm

@#168 Faron

True,
The surfing might be good….
But then there’s those pesky Tsunami warnings…

While I do have a deep and abiding respect and wariness for the day of the megathrust earthquake, I am not too worried about tsunamis given that:

1) I would never live (or at least own property) in an inundation zone.

2) Early warning systems give at least a half hour lead time, so hopefully death would be avoided.

Earthquake-wise, one can’t live anywhere along SW coastal BC without the risk of being impacted by THE BIG ONE. Reminds me that I should finally get to assembling that earthquake survival kit. Probably wouldn’t hurt to add some stuff for neighbours who didn’t prepare or lost theirs in the quake.

#167 NoName on 10.11.22 at 12:25 pm

#135 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.11.22 at 7:32 am

More cheap, unskilled labour from war torn third world countries isn’t what we need..

I see what you did there.

Just reminder when you bring docktors, enegneers architekts, they are on a same levels as those unskilled ones as the arive, and the wat things are they stay like that for reminder because they are here for the kids many of them…

Maybe we should start bringing experts from developed countries, and not tell them about 2 weeks of vacation when they alow you, lack of transit subsidy by employer, and other stuf… Plus before every family funeral you brae out consumer proposal forms, cmon Farts, you know no one leaves good for same, but far away…

#168 Faron on 10.11.22 at 12:27 pm

#162 Ronaldo on 10.11.22 at 12:05 pm
#145 Sail Away on 10.11.22 at 9:51 am

Fun Fact of the day:

The entire world’s population could fit inside Los Angeles.

And be dead of stampede within hours, dehydration within days and cholera owing to being ankle deep in crap within a week.

Has to be one of the most pointless exercises in square footage calculation out there.

#169 Dragonfly58 on 10.11.22 at 12:37 pm

Thinking we can grow indefinitely without significant negative consequences is a fiction as well.
Mankind is already well on its way to killing the planet through run away population increases.

When would we / should we stop ?

Immigration does not increase the global population. – Garth

#170 Dragonfly58 on 10.11.22 at 12:48 pm

Also, does growth in population automaticly ensure growth in per capita GDP ?
Isn’t it actually growth in per capita GDP that we need to deal with the problems you mention ?

https://cis.org/Camarota/There-No-Evidence-Population-Growth-Drives-Capita-Economic-Growth-Developed-Economies

#171 Sail Away on 10.11.22 at 12:52 pm

#160 Faron on 10.11.22 at 11:36 am
#145 Sail Away on 10.11.22 at 9:51 am

Unchecked population growth is the single greatest existential threat to human existence and global biodiversity.

——–

LOL, you also have claimed that the planet is no where near carrying capacity.

——–

That’s also true. Our clever approaches to exploiting stored energy means expansion can proceed for a lot longer, further destroying biodiversity and paving paradise.

Let’s say in 150 years when the human population at historical 1% growth rate is 4 times greater than today, the easy energy runs out. 32 billion people fighting for survival when global resources, at that time, can suddenly only support 2 billion humans.

Or maybe it happens in 200 years when there are 60 billion people. In any case, logic and historical precedent clearly shows that it’s a-coming.

It’s also true that I’m not personally worried, since it won’t affect me. Just pointing it out, to counteract the seemingly-accepted theory that always-increasing population is a good thing.

#172 Shawn Allen on 10.11.22 at 12:59 pm

Hey Wall Street shoppers! Stocks and bonds are on sale! Buy now!

Same for you Bay Street shoppers.

#173 IHCTD9 on 10.11.22 at 1:09 pm

#157 Old Boot on 10.11.22 at 11:25 am
#111 Doug t on 10.10.22 at 11:10 pm

#95 fartz

We have an epidemic on our hands and NOBODY is coming to the table with how to deal with it – recall days gone by of “institutions” where people with major mental health problems were placed? Yes they were mostly archaic and brutal but what if we modernized such places to house those of severe mental health issues and severe addiction problems- remove the stigma, fresh ideas as to care for those in need and at the same time clean up the city cores that have been gutted by the exposure and daily exhaustion of living with this social killer

*************

When doctors can legally expedite the deaths of mentally ill people (soon to include mature minors) via MAID, it becomes legally impossible to involuntarily detain and treat people who are a threat only to themselves.

Personality disorders fuel most of the criminality and addiction plaguing our cities, and people with personality disorders are not often responsive to treatment. Inflexible boundaries and meaningful consequences are the only means of changing their behaviours, which our judiciary currently refuses to support.

I spent over 20 years in the DTES watching this slow moving train wreck from the front seat of an ambulance, as unproven ideologies and the ‘lived experience’ of personality disordered drug addicts replaced science, data, and rule of law. This is why you’re waiting 7 hours for an ambulance, but every DTES drug od has a 3 minute response time.

The weaponization of empathy is a hallmark of certain personality disorders and it’s so corrosive and destructive. It causes medical staff burnout, apathy, and disengagement. Until logic and science are allowed to dictate policies, expect further staffing issues in front line healthcare.

This was, of course, predicted years ago when TPTB decided to let the personality-disordered, drug addicted inmates run the asylum under the astonishingly anti-science ‘lived experience’ canard.

Garbage in, garbage out.
______

It’s absolutely amazing what Vancouver City Hall and the Province of BC is allowing to continue on the DTES. Every new vid I see shows a worsening dystopian calamity. I guess they feel if their policies don’t work, keep doing them.

Sometimes I consider a retirement out in Northern BC – or maybe just a part time landing pad. But the comments under Fartz’s linked Vid has many folks stating the problem is spreading all over the province.

What a damn waste.

#174 Bob Dog on 10.11.22 at 3:45 pm

Also immigrants are paying for my EI cheque every 2 weeks which pays for my food and rent. Once I’m let go from a position there is no way I’m lookin for work when housing is 15 times average family income.

$2,200 per month to relax and reflect on life or $4,100 per month to work like an animal. That’s a no brainer.

#175 Omasare on 10.11.22 at 4:41 pm

#81 QuebAnglo on 10.10.22 at 7:54 pm

————————————

I stayed in Montreal one year. I’d help people move their car out of the snow. They’d ask me where I’m from, when I’d say England they’d swear at me.

Maybe letting goof stuff that happened 400 years ago would be a start. Not my fault if they were crushed by the brits.

They could have been swallowed by the Americans. None would be speaking French now.

I was so happy to see the the 401 sign on the way out

#176 Omasare on 10.11.22 at 4:43 pm

The obsession with real estate one Canada is odd.

Loads of space, like literally the second biggest country on earth.

But

Selling and buying real estate requires ZERO skill, so it is ideal for people who dislike working hard.

#177 Mean Gene on 10.11.22 at 4:56 pm

Comic book reading Realturds® strike again.

#178 Linda on 10.11.22 at 6:27 pm

#25 ‘Jason’ – actually Boomers do want to sell their homes. They no longer need the big 4 bedroom abode where they raised their children & having entered the stage of life where various body parts don’t work the way they used to would love to sell up & move to a smaller place. However, that doesn’t mean they want to live in a shoebox & they certainly don’t want to pay the insane RE prices. Why would anyone willingly sell a 4 bed, 2 bath detached house for say $1 million & then end up purchasing a 2 bed 2 bath condo less than half the size for the same price? Not to mention the never ending condo fees & the possibility of special assessments.

#117 ‘Tom’ – last I looked, Alberta was a province, not a country. The vast majority of Albertans live in urban settings, so having scores of children to work on the family farm isn’t relevant.

#179 DJT on 10.11.22 at 7:09 pm

The new housing market is going through a transition from expensive hand made house to less expensive machine made houses.

#180 Neo on 10.11.22 at 8:27 pm

Based on the info listed here, it seems older Canadians are not dying off fast enough to keep up with the government plan to replace them with migrants. One would think with our demographics, there would be plenty of housing available.

The government jumped the gun. Please boomers get on with it and enjoy the afterlife. We youngsters need houses to raise our children

#181 Andrew Breitbart on 10.12.22 at 10:34 am

It continues to confound how Canadians can make the correct observation that we are failing to replace ourselves at pretty much the abortion rate, yet prescribe the solution as “mass immigration” rather than “ban abortion.”

I understand that the conventional wisdom, as Garth has stated, is that immigrants are considered more economically competitive than the aborted. This I also don’t get. The idea is that immigrants scrabbled up from the hard streets abroad and that this makes them better economic contributors, right? Conversely, the conventional wisdom seems to hold that the aborted would have poor parentage and therefore be net drains if allowed to leave the womb.

Even if the above were true (and this requires a lot of assumptions to check out) none of it would explain our overwhelming preference for refugees to replace the aborted.

Thanks for posting the numbers Garth, you’re a braver dog than most to open yourself up to this conversation.