The correlation

If you purchased the average SFH detached pile in 416 last Valentine’s Day you paid $2,073,989.

To avoid mortgage insurance, the down payment was $425,000. The three-year mortgage rate was 2.6%. Payments were $7,700 a month for a $1.7 million loan. Today the 3-year rate is 5.39%. Payments on the same mortgage would be $10,268.

Who can afford that? Maybe a couple earning more than $350,000 a year – if they have big savings.

So as interest rates rise, house prices must fall. We’ve just begun.

In September, the local RE cartel tells us, that same house was priced at $1,585,589. That’s a 23.5% plunge in little more than half a year – further and faster than any correction in five decades. Now it takes a down payment of $317,117 – which is $133,000 less than in the winter. The mortgage (three year, 5.39%) requires a monthly of $7,661.

So there ya go. To carry a $1.58 million house in September took almost exactly the same size of monthly payment as the overhead for a $2 million house in February. The only ‘saving’ was a reduced deposit. The property is still unaffordable to more than 95% of the population. Thus, prices must fall much, much more.

But wait. It gets worse.

Buyers today have to understand how amortization works. Interest charges are front-end-loaded by the lender and the higher the rate, the less debt that’s retired. Like, seriously less.

In the above example of the same house bought at two points in time six months apart, here’s the reality:

Buy in February for $2 million, financing almost $1.7 million at 2.6% (3-year fixed): of total payments ($277,212) interest is $126,259 and $150,953 of the debt is retired. So every month the mortgage is knocked down by about four grand.

Buy in September for $1.585 million, financing $1.26 million at 5.39% (3-year fixed): total payments are almost identical, but the interest paid on a smaller mortgage is seventy thousand higher at $196,774. The principal repayment drops to $78,936 – just over $2,000 a month. Almost $5,500 a month goes to the lender as interest. After three years the mortgage debt still sits at $1.19 million.

Well, so much for the anti-rent argument of “throwing your money away”, when buying this so-so house at current rates (likely to increase) costs more than $63,000 a year in interest. (For sadism, you can add in property taxes, insurance premium, maintenance, water and possibly condo fees.) A renter could live here, spend five grand monthly and not have to shell out $317,000 for a down payment, plus avoid property taxes, insurance, fees etc. The tenant would not fret about the depreciating pile of equity, nor listing the property when sales have crashed 44% (as they just did in Toronto).

How is interest paid to a bank better than rent handed over to a landlord? It’s not, of course, especially when a mortgage payment is just the beginning of home ownership costs. In fact, today landlords are still subsidizing their tenants, many of them delusionally believing that capital appreciation will eventually wipe away negative cash flow. Even those owners who receive more rent than their monthly expenses often ignore the fact the income is 100% taxable, and the equity in their property represents an opportunity cost. Most would be better dumping their cash into a comatose GIC.

Well, in Toronto (as in Vancouver, Victoria and Calgary, plus most other centres), sales have dropped, listings are slowly increasing and prices are below last winter’s peak house – sometimes by multiple hundreds of thousands. Mortgage rates have essentially doubled, and even if CBs start throttling back and pause the hikes in 2023, we’re not going back to 3% home loans.

So either household incomes in Canada double (the median in the GTA is $91,786, says TD), or real estate values must fall exponentially. Or the market freezes. Realtor Audis get returned en masse. The MLS network starts accepting ads from the SlapChop guy. Four hundred real estate agents, not the current 40,000, are able handle monthly sales. Children grow up dreaming of world peace and climate justice instead of a condo in Etobicoke. Life as we know it ends.

Or, will Ottawa cause the stress test to be lifted, bring in 50-year amortizations and pay for CMHC insurance, allowing 0% downs?

Nah. Nobody’s that dumb. Right?

By the way, the local real estate coven’s chief economist reminds us that, “October generally represents the peak of the fall market, so it will be important to see where price trends head over the next month.”

I think we already know that.

About the picture: “Love the blog,” writes Mike. “Thanks for putting the time into it, it has helped my wife and I put many things into perspective.  Here’s our pup Murphy if you need doggy pics!”

154 comments ↓

#1 unbalanced on 10.05.22 at 2:02 pm

Murphy looks like a younger ( you know who).

#2 Shawn on 10.05.22 at 2:14 pm

Interest charges “front-end loaded” ?

“Interest charges are front-end-loaded by the lender…”

****************************
Agreed (sort of) except it’s more like front-end-loaded by the math. The Debt is of course higher at the outset than midway or near the end and with more owing, more interest applies.

Some people think it is nefarious on the part of the banks or other lenders. It’s just the math of the matter.

#3 The Guillotine is God on 10.05.22 at 2:16 pm

Since we know the probability of incomes in Canada doubling is near zero; the near-term probability of a freeze in the market is close to 100%…as people process exactly what happened. At that point, prices MUST fall as real estate represents crystallised liquidity that must be released at some point for various reasons. One can easily visualise cascading prices as owners try to exit ahead of each other. As long-term rates rise from irresponsibly low levels, the bond maths (in basic terms described by Garth) takes over and punishes real estate prices. This is how you get the 60-65% depreciation in real estate prices that people swear will never happen.

#4 ElGatoNeroYVR on 10.05.22 at 2:24 pm

All good points especially the math , unrealistic as it is as a case study.Whoever borrows 1mil plus and can’t afford a measly 3K monthly extra deserves whatever is coming to them . Same as people who buy german cars and complain about the cost of gas and maintenance.
If you have to really think about it and the impact on your cash flow you can’t afford it.
I would say that most people buying in that range are move-ups so if I were to pick a number 500K-600K is likely much more realistic, hence the fact that sellers are delisting and holding on.
The only ones selling are those that must.

#5 Faune on 10.05.22 at 2:24 pm

Many of the new jobs at the financial institutions and government sector are staffing agencies with one-month contracts.

Who will afford the rents?

#6 Dave on 10.05.22 at 2:36 pm

Everyone I know that has purchased a secondary property i.e. house, townhouse or condo have done it via HELOC.

What is the HELOC rate at? Will the banks ever put further demands on these borrowers?

Leading indicator of significant price reductions is Foreclosures. So far this is very quiet

Foreclosure rates are meaningless in Canada because mortgage defaults are relatively rare. People just wither away and eventually are forced to sell, depressing prices further. – Garth

#7 Hi on 10.05.22 at 2:38 pm

A mattress for rent in Scarborough is $800 a month. These home owners will just stuff desperate students to live ten in a room under their main floor like mole people.

#8 Sail Away on 10.05.22 at 2:42 pm

Thanks Garth, good article!

With RE, as with all investing, relying on exuberance leads to the abyss. The problem, of course, is that homebuyers are not experienced investors, so continually make horribly destructive financial decisions. You try to educate; I just shake my head and sigh… while telling the Sail Away dynasty to always discuss with the family first.

’tis a travesty.

#9 Father’s Daughter on 10.05.22 at 2:46 pm

Those numbers are terrifying and we are a high earning household. Rental prices in Toronto are also through roof. Expect shelter occupancy rates to be absolutely maxed and some precarious housing situations this winter. I saw a post today about someone renting their living room, in Burlington, for $850. Sounds cozy.

#10 Fact Checker Fred on 10.05.22 at 2:47 pm

$7700 a month! Wow.
Another correlation, as the housing crisis continues the number of homeless encampments in Kitchener parks continues to grow.

And as Dr. Mike. P. Moffat, an Ivey Business school professor points out on Twitter there is a direct correlation between housing affordability and government policy choices of all three levels of government. Ontario’s population boom was a policy choice, and Ontario’s failure to change housing policy in response to population growth was a policy choice.

#11 the Jaguar on 10.05.22 at 2:50 pm

Those are the numbers. Behind the numbers is calamity and heartbreak.

Maybe the 425,000 down payment while represented to the mortgage lender as ‘savings’ was actually private funding from a ‘community lender’ or other unreported source, so the underwater position is even deeper than the initial numbers show.

Now throw in divorce, job loss, or maybe illness into the equation, all of which the temporary solution found is racking up more debt from high interest rate sources or taking on more private loans. Some say Canadians don’t walk away from their homes, but that’s what happened in Alberta in the early 1980’s. A non recourse province, of course. Ain’t the case in the GTA or GVA.
And despite historical tendencies, Albertans haven’t been ‘running amok’ with mortgage debt these past few years.

The real question… the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma is why the hell so many people ever thought $2,073,989. was reasonable value or taking on a mortgage for $1,648,989. made sense when their household incomes had remained stuck in the mud for years.

As for the so called ‘stress test’, pffffttt. Just the Banks playing the shell game with the ‘Regulator’. They just moved the needle on what qualified as ‘affordability levels’ to keep the game going and increase market share. Apparently they drank the ‘real estate only goes up’ koolaid as well.

Listen carefully and you might hear the sound of a train coming down the tracks. It’s carrying a heavy load. A pay load, but not the good kind.

I like that little Batman mask that Murphy is wearing… he’s all set for Halloween.

#12 Calgary on 10.05.22 at 2:57 pm

Bank Foreclosure Homes for Sale started. Know one case in process.

#13 Rook on 10.05.22 at 3:00 pm

Couldn’t the government just introduce 40 year mortgages, get CMHC to do away with the stress test, and introduce more grants/loans to help home owners buy these houses at inflated interest rates, to keep the party going and goose the market?

#14 Paul on 10.05.22 at 3:02 pm

“Most would be better dumping their cash into a comatose GIC.” Promo email from EQ Bank today:
1 Year GIC: 4.60%
5 Year GIC: 4.70%
Still comatose, or worth considering?

One more number, please:
Buy in February for $2 million… After three years the mortgage debt still sits at $?? million.

#15 Soviet Capitalist on 10.05.22 at 3:02 pm

No idea is too stupid for our dear leader.

#16 Faron on 10.05.22 at 3:03 pm

#134 Sail Away on 10.05.22 at 2:10 pm

You are an ignorant dolt at best. I can say this because you ignored clearly stated facts from me and the article and that level of ignorance is doltish. This isn’t name calling, it’s characterization. To wit:

My words involved projections of activity.

Who cares if in a century we lose one or two named storms per year if the ones that do hit are far wetter, windier and broader?

From the article based on published science on the topic edited for brevity.

Sea level rise… causing higher coastal inundation levels for tropical cyclones that do occur, all else assumed equal.

Tropical cyclone rainfall rates are projected to increase in the future (medium to high confidence) due to anthropogenic warming…an increase on the order of 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm for a 2 degree Celsius global warming scenario.

Tropical cyclone intensities globally are projected to increase…on average…by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming… an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.

The global proportion of tropical cyclones that reach very intense (Category 4 and 5) levels is projected to increase…most modeling studies project a decrease (or little change) in the global frequency of all tropical cyclones combined.

Uncertainty is expressed because this is science. That’s the way things are. I was wrong on broader as that’s not conclusive at this point.

Oh, and I thought you were ignoring me.

#17 Flop… on 10.05.22 at 3:08 pm

Flop Drops.

A while ago someone asked will be seeing detached houses in the 800s anytime soon.

I answered in the negative, you saw the occasional one in the 1.3s but more likely around 1.5/1.6, with the odd cheaper one going in nearby Ocean Park and even Crescent Beach.

This one might move the needle a little, then again it might not.

The details…

853 STEVENS STREET

White Rock

Original ask1.34

Just sold for 1.15

On the market for 2 months, basically went as assessed by the guy creeping around slowly in the car that takes a photo of your house for BC Assessment…

M48BC

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2721535/853-STEVENS-STREET-White-Rock-BC/

#18 Rent the Podium on 10.05.22 at 3:09 pm

Krugman’s analysis in the Times yesterday certainly suggests low interest rates will be back. Maybe not next year…

#19 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 3:14 pm

Garth being a good Dad … again.

Caveat Emptor.

And if the Cdn 2nd Qtr Wealth Sacking was that (and it was), 3rd Qtr will be Rape of the Sabine Women (Men + Bill C-16).

Cdn RE plumbing new lows for all Wealth quintiles.

4th Qtr will need a new superlative after Sacking, Sabine Rape …

working on it. The Plague comes to mind.

#20 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.05.22 at 3:18 pm

@#115 Ponzie’s PM Pal
“No comment on our bungee jumping PM.”
+++
Yawn.
Another narcissistic “selfie” by our PM…on his son’s birthday.

@#125 Ponzie’s Presumptions
“Another reason why houses cost more here.”
+++
Another reason you’re bleating about the lower brain land is increasingly ….. irrelevant.

#21 Shawn on 10.05.22 at 3:20 pm

Building Permits were still rocking higher as of August

“Multi-family component pushes residential sector to record high Residential [building] permits in August increased 12.0% to $8.4 billion nationally. Gains in Ontario offset losses posted in seven provinces.

Construction intentions in the single-family homes component edged up 0.4%.

The value of building permits in the multi-family component sharply increased by 22.2%, largely due to Ontario (+85.3%). A $480 million permit for a luxury skyscraper in Toronto along with several other permits for apartments resulted in the largest recorded monthly value for the province.”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221005/dq221005b-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

#22 Steven Rowlandson on 10.05.22 at 3:23 pm

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/real-estate-canada-s-housing-crisis-is-just-beginning-economist-says-1.1828462

If the BOC stops short of crucifying the real estate market to death the prices won’t come down and housing will remain unaffordable.

#23 Faron on 10.05.22 at 3:24 pm

#134 Sail Away on 10.05.22 at 2:10 pm

This bears repeating: I’m flabbergasted and utterly baffled at how blindly and ideologically you took that link. Completely ignored almost every other conclusion in the article to hone in on the agreed upon observed (and projected) slow decline in hurricane frequency and the difficulty in teasing out historical changes from an extremely short and noisy data set. Much WOW. Such clown.

#24 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 3:25 pm

#16 Faron

As usual sympathetic but your “average” cyclone/hurricane * might release the equivalent of 600 terawatts of energy.

Canada’s electricity production was 632.2 terawatt hours TOTAL in 2019.

It is hubris thinking that humanity can reign in the Climate.

* or comparable to exploding a 10-megaton nuke every 20 minutes, Hiroshima bomb was 15-kilotons.

Hubris.

#25 Catalyst on 10.05.22 at 3:27 pm

I’ll take market freezes for 500 Alex. Single detached in the GTA will never be affordable to an ‘average’ household. What’s the percentage of SFD to total housing supply, probably 20% or less? Then it should be affordable to the top 10% probably.

#26 Shawn on 10.05.22 at 3:30 pm

Selected retail prices in August and past months

The latest report is out. StatsCan for whatever reason does not give this data with the usual column for month over month percent change or the year over year percent change. But you can calculate it yourself from this data.

StatsCan claims that this is not inflation but rather price changes???? Price changes over time are not inflation as such, they say? They lost me there.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810024501

“While average prices can be used to assess price levels in a given month, they should not be used to calculate price change over time. To measure pure price change, otherwise known as inflation, it is recommended to use the CPI and its sub-indexes (table 18-10-0004-01). Although average prices provide a complementary picture of consumer prices, they are not comparable to the pure price changes calculated in the CPI because of methodological differences. They also do not contain all the same products and may contain different product definitions.

The method that Statistics Canada uses to measure and publish monthly food inflation in the CPI has not changed.”

#27 Faron on 10.05.22 at 3:30 pm

#24 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 3:25 pm

Sorry lava tubes, your comment doesn’t bear arguing against for a very large number of reasons.

#28 chalkie on 10.05.22 at 3:31 pm

Our stocks had a couple days of glory, but we are back in the dark pit again today, what goes up must come down (all except our age that is).

Not sure how the realtors get their percentage drops in housing for Ontario, but the numbers sure do not match the advertised deductions on the homes from Last winter, percentages are far steeper than many of the current write ups are showing.

Manulife has stepped up to the plate and wrote large cheques to the tune of $1000,000.00 to help feed people in the disaster zones from Florida to Nova Scotia. Governments are also matching those donations. Thank you, Manulife, for your compassion and generosity, the (WCK) World Central Kitchen has already started serving up the meals in those locations.
It would be nice, to see other big financial intuitions, likes of Sunlife, BNS, RBC, CIBC, TD, BOM, including big box stores and retailers like, Costco and Walmart, Lowe’s, Home Depot, Home Hardware, Loblaw’s and so on, to give back to the communities in dire need of your help. Times like this, it’s not about what you are able to take, but what you are able to do and give back to your customers and neighbors.

Starting Thursday October 6th 2022, (that’s right, its tomorrow folks) businesses in Canada will be able to pass credit card fees on to their customers, you can expect to pay anywhere from 1% to 3% extra when using your plastic savior at the register. Not all business will participate in doing this immediate, but it won’t be long before they will follow suit and collect those delicious extra profits. There is plenty of smiles in the retail boardrooms today, stand up and fight back. Follow the twisted sister song, “we are not going to take it anymore”.

My suggestion is, to just say NO, if retailers and services try and pass their charges onto you, walk out leaving the buggies and checkout counters loaded with the groceries and other items. With the markup that is into everything we purchase today from TVs, hardware to Groceries and now to pass those extra charges onto the consumer is outrageous.
Do you remember in yesterday’s world of grocery stores, there was plenty of smiles at the register, free grocery bags, the clerk packed your groceries and someone took them to your car, what a change we have faced in a few short years and now the retailers want to whack us with more cost.

One area that will most likely be first front and Centre for the fast credit card lottery fees to implement this practice is Internet and cable/cellphone service providers in my opinion, they are not directly facing the public. You become an easy target and the phone lines are set up to be complicated in reaching any sort of customer service, it was a plan and it worked. Be brave and call them out, change providers if this happens. Since the pandemic started, the world has become one big rip-off to consumers, it seems everyone wants a piece of the fast and easy money.

Whatever happened to real customer service: Support the retailers that have a live answering service and are there to help or answer any questions and deal with your concerns. For the retailers who put you in a hold pattern for hours on the phone and never return calls, drop them like a hot potato.

Canadian consumer confidence has dropped to near record lows again amid growing all over the global economy.

Canadians have rarely been so pessimistic about the economy since the index was launched in 2008. Half of Canadians expect the economy will weaken over the next few months, with only 14 per cent anticipating a stronger economy, meaning 86% of us feel the economy will continue to sink more.

One driver of poor sentiment is a sharply deteriorating outlook for the nation’s housing market. The polling found 37 per cent of respondents expecting home prices to fall over the next six months, versus 26 per cent who see an increase. The 11-point differential is the widest on record outside the early weeks of the pandemic and the global financial crisis.

There will be a few more notches put into our belts before much excitement surfaces in our jumping of joy for the economy, more pain ahead in the head winds folks.

When renting a home, the recommendation is, it should take no more than 30% of your monthly income. Metro Vancouver finds that the latest report is spending more than half of their pay cheques, 51% & this same echo can be heard in other parts of the country.

From surging inflation to rising rates, recession worries, and geopolitical conflict, markets are facing almost unprecedented headwinds this year. Central banks have been aggressively hiking rates in an effort to cool inflation, which is raising concerns the global economy could be in for a potential hard landing, keep some cash for that rainy day.

September Home sales are down again month over month, don’t be in a hurry to rush out and purchase that home, your deal is many months out in 2023 and 2024 somewhere. If you must buy or sell, check four or five agents by recent sales reference, before you make any commitment, there are plenty agents to choose from. Don’t accept the first bologna story they give you, there is lots of hot wind in that department. Ask the agent, if it’s OK to put their interview on recording, watch the eyes boggle. Once you pick your favorite realtor, let them know, the time for talking up is over with, now it’s time to put up or shut up, the proof will be in the pudding very quickly for you to see.
Quote of the day: A real entrepreneur is somebody who has no safety net underneath them.

#29 T-Rev on 10.05.22 at 3:36 pm

I’m suspicious of the intonation which which you said “No one is that stupid. Right?”

Is that a “Right?” Or a “Riiite??” Or a “Riiiiiiiiiight….?”

#30 Mr Fox on 10.05.22 at 3:36 pm

Or, will Ottawa cause the stress test to be lifted, bring in 50-year amortizations and pay for CMHC insurance, allowing 0% downs?

Nah. Nobody’s that dumb. Right?

Are they thinking about it, or about something similar? I hope not…

#31 Dave on 10.05.22 at 3:36 pm

So far it looks like the market is just freezing in Vancouver. Delusional buyers are still asking above assessed prices, so sales aren’t happening, but price reductions don’t seem to be either. People probably think they can ride out the storm. If inflation is transitory and rates peak early next year then slowly decline, they may be right.

#32 Victor Llearna on 10.05.22 at 3:37 pm

Those stupid sheep in the ‘Buy in February for $2 million,’ category are going to be paying off that mortgage until they die. Instead of ‘freedom 55’ its ‘freedom drop-dead’ for them

#33 cuke and tomato picker on 10.05.22 at 3:37 pm

A survey done by a company called Finder says that a
quarter of Canadians are pulling their money out of the stock market because they need the money to just live with higher interest rates, food costs, gas etc. The
Times Colonist has an article on the front page of the business section. Also AARON JUDGE hit the big one and the ball could be worth 2MIL. and that is American $’S.

#34 Catlady on 10.05.22 at 3:38 pm

Once again Garth, thank you sincerely for all you do to educate us. With everything going on in the world, hubby and I sleep peacefully at night, knowing we don’t live beyond our means, have stayed invested, and renewed our little mortgage before the interest rates went nuts. All thanks to you of course. Please keep doing what you do best !

#35 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 3:41 pm

I live in a sneaky, evil, Capitalist Country (Italia).

So nat gas to Italia resumed by Gazprom today. Little did I know, just learned this today:

– Italia buying Russian gas at bargain basement prices as no one else buying much or Russia has cut them off.

– Italia at 100% for quite some time now for its annual nat gas needs.

– Italia has been selling surplus bargain basement Russian nat gas for SEVEN months now to European countries that have been cut off AND at prevailing market rates. Of course, Italia will be seen helping out countries in distress this Winter for energy. WIN-WIN.

——————–

Grazie Russia for making Italia Nat Gas GOODFELLAS.

And they say Italia GDP may go down this Qtr. Somehow I don’t think that is going to happen.

https://youtu.be/EeJxcfqu2bc?t=452

Still, Italia does not trust the Ruskies in light of Nord Stream 1 & 2 sabotage (incl. underwater Internet Cable) …

https://youtu.be/EeJxcfqu2bc?t=581

Viva La Repubblica Italiana.

#36 Shawn on 10.05.22 at 3:41 pm

Can you walk away from a mortgage in Alberta if it is to your advantage? (Usually not)

“Some say Canadians don’t walk away from their homes, but that’s what happened in Alberta in the early 1980’s. A non recourse province, of course. Ain’t the case in the GTA or GVA.”

*************************
I looked into this years ago and found that ALL CMHC mortgages include recourse to your other assetts if you walk away, even in Alberta.

That may not have bee the case in the early 80’s when Albertans did indulge in jingle mail. (Here’s the keys, bye, bye).

How many buy without CMHC these days? Very few I suspect. There will no jingle mail. Without CMHC you are looking at losing your 20% down payment or more. Very few will do this voluntarily.

The vast vast majority of people who would walk away from their house have no other significant assets in any case, I expect. Recourse to nothing is not worth much.

People will Hang on and eat drywall as Garth used to say.

#37 Bill Ferguson on 10.05.22 at 3:58 pm

Not only are both MLS and non-MLS sales cratering here in Greater Vancouver, asking prices continue to drop hard and fast and median prices continue to cascade downward in most areas.

As far as “value” is concerned, potential buyers are now getting “more for less”;something that is often overlooked. This is yet another way in which price drops are masked during a housing collapse.

It can be best described, “You mean, if I had only waited, I could have bought THAT instead of THIS?”. Gut-wrenching for many out there.

#38 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 3:58 pm

In the

Welcome to Europa, have a nice day

vein:

The Czech Republic trolled Russia. You got to give them an A+++ for this one.

Czechs troll Russia with mock annexation of Kaliningrad (Czech troops advancing in so called Kaliningrad Oblast)
https://kafkadesk.org/2022/10/04/czechs-troll-russia-with-mock-annexation-of-kaliningrad/

Pope & Biden bless it
https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1577604332912009217
https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1577603059773046787
[196.8% in favor of Kaliningrad joining Czech Republic]

Czech Gov signs Kaliningrad Annexation Act
https://twitter.com/apmassaro3/status/1577438993553461248

Czech Aircraft Carrier “Karol Gott” sailed into Kaliningrad port (please don’t make explain either).
https://twitter.com/PLinNAFO/status/1577352897808965632

… and on and on. Search Twitter for “Czech annexation of Kaliningrad”

‘Atta go Czechia!
(BTW, Italia has some cheap Russian gas we can sell you)

———————

Speaking of TWTR and Musk, best Tweet of the day:
https://twitter.com/Wallstreet_Baby/status/1577360625369595904

Think LH scale names for IQ ranges less than 70.

#39 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 3:59 pm

#27 Faron

Pray tell.

#40 Faron on 10.05.22 at 4:06 pm

#135 Don Guillermo on 10.05.22 at 2:56 pm

130 Faron on 10.05.22 at 1:45 pm
#120 Don Guillermo on 10.05.22 at 12:04 pm

Read the science here:

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

#####

Lots of heavy reading for us laymen.

Gosh, sorry to burden you with the intellectual equivalent of taking the half flight of stairs to get into the special McDonalds where they spoon feed the customers.

FFS.

#41 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 4:09 pm

#12 Calgary on 10.05.22 at 2:57 pm
Bank Foreclosure Homes for Sale started. Know one case in process.

————————————

Yup…I always like these one off, anecdotal, and statistically insignifiant comments. Always helps me in making the big financial decisions. Keep it coming. Sheesh!

#42 NOSTRADAMUS on 10.05.22 at 4:17 pm

MY PERSONAL IRON CLAD GUARANTEE!
Garth, are your real estate facts and figures correct? Something doesn’t add up. Only a few short months ago the biggest and saddest realtor’s, Royal LePage and the #1 colossus Re/Max predicted real estate values to be going up in the year of the Lord 2022 by 10%. Guaranteed! Buy now or forever be left out. Looks like someone failed grade 5 math.
New point. I am not hearing any realtor ads promoting the following sales hook, ” If your home doesn’t sell I will buy it! Guaranteed! With my personal iron clad Guarantee you will never miss out on the purchase of your dream home.”
Asking for a friend, how many purchaser’s actually fell for this sleazy sales tactic?” If so, was it a positive experience? Finally the voice of reason.

#43 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 4:17 pm

Saudis Are Right to Warn of a Collapse in Oil Supply

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-19/saudis-are-right-to-warn-of-a-worrisome-collapse-in-oil-supply

Bought more oil yesterday.

Will buy more today if TD WebBroker will only let me at my TWTR sell profit, I mean come on, how long does it take you to show it in my Balance when you show it in my Cash Account? (Immediate Gratification Me)

And of course …

yeah oil

+1.5 to +2.5% up for the day in my Cdn oil ETF, US oil ETN as I type. Looking forward to the dividends.

#44 JSS on 10.05.22 at 4:19 pm

“Or, will Ottawa cause the stress test to be lifted, bring in 50-year amortizations and pay for CMHC insurance, allowing 0% downs?”

I’ll bet on the “50 year ammo, and 0% down” option!

#45 Nonplused on 10.05.22 at 4:20 pm

So, the price of an average SFH in Toronto has fallen by almost as much as an average SFH in Calgary costs outright? Something isn’t/wasn’t right. There should be a premium for housing in Toronto because it is so damn big and crowded, and the traffic sucks, but not that much. Depending on your tastes Calgary is the better place to live. Mountains with world class skiing, hiking, hunting, fishing, etc. are just an hour to two hours away. The commute is better, which is many hours per week added back to your life. Cottage country and lakes are further away, true, but not that far (you do have to go to BC for decent lakes, though, so there is that). We get chinooks in the winter. The people are nicer. The politics are better. The taxes are lower. The job market is comparable. Why would anyone want to live in Toronto?

The mythical “average Toronto SFH” in Toronto could fall again by as much as it has in short order, and it will still be overpriced. The Calgary SFH could fall by the same percentage, sure, but we’d be talking $100,000. Still enough to cause heartburn, but not the same calamity. On the other hand if the Calgary SHF falls by the same absolute amount, it’ll be practically free!

#46 Faron on 10.05.22 at 4:21 pm

#29 Faron on 10.05.22 at 4:06 pm

#135 Don Guillermo on 10.05.22 at 2:56 pm

130 Faron on 10.05.22 at 1:45 pm
#120 Don Guillermo on 10.05.22 at 12:04 pm

Okay, one more because… sheesh.

Don Guillermo, just flipping through one of the papers cited in the GFDL summary and found something relevant to your neck of the woods…

Northeast Pacific hurricanes (i.e. offshore of Mexico in the Pacific basin) are the one place where frequency, strength and even size is likely to strongly increase.

So, seems you dodged the wasp’s nest this year so decided to give it a good kick just for fun? Speaking of hubris…

#47 The real Kip (Ret) on 10.05.22 at 4:23 pm

Hope everyone enjoyed their stimmy cheques. These good ol’ days will soon be over. Reality check coming and not just real estate.

#48 Faron on 10.05.22 at 4:29 pm

#39 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 3:59 pm
#27 Faron
Pray tell.

You want me to lecture you on roughly everything having to do with geology, atmospheric science, atmospheric chemistry and a dash of geography?

No.

There’s not enough time in the day, Garth doesn’t want to read it and, most importantly, it would bear about as much fruit as giving a lecture to a stump, but would be far less enjoyable. At least with stumps, i’d be outside.

#49 Nonplused on 10.05.22 at 4:30 pm

There aren’t any more hurricanes and they aren’t any worse. We just built more stuff in the way:

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/shellenberger-media-lying-about-climate-hurricanes

There is a reason native Americans didn’t live in great numbers in the South Eastern US (Florida, Louisiana, Texas). You only have to live (hopefully) through one of those before you decide maybe not. Plus there’s the heat. Florida didn’t become a big thing until air conditioning. Too dang hot. Oh and alligators.

#50 Kurt on 10.05.22 at 4:31 pm

“Nah. Nobody’s that dumb. Right?” As many other have implied, that’s not a sure thing.

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.05.22 at 4:33 pm

First panic

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/a-quarter-of-canadians-are-looking-to-cash-out-their-investments-survey-finds-1.6095285.

Might be some deals coming up….

#52 Faron on 10.05.22 at 4:36 pm

On Victoria real-estate:

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2022/10/03/sluggish-september/

great site from a seemingly objective analyst.

Basically, all 2021 gains have been reversed and sales are near the multi-decade bottom for all residential real estate types.

One wonders what the bank thinks when someone takes out a $1M HELOC to chase stocks into the gutter. Could be interesting.

#53 TurnerNation on 10.05.22 at 4:37 pm

In Soviet Kanada we pretend to work and they pretend to pay us??

“Gatik has launched its fully driverless commercial operations with Loblaw Companies Ltd. Gatik is now moving select on-line grocery orders, for Loblaw’s PC Express service, with a fleet of multitemperature autonomous box trucks.”

—————-
Ho hum. As noted in Q2 2020 every system designed to protect us has been turned against us. Landlords will have no property rights and be happy! That masterful “Keep your rent campaign” was a real weapon rolled out. Part of this global WW3.
Prove me wrong as we roll into Year of this:

.The Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto experiencing ‘much longer than normal’ wait times for non-emergencies (cp24.com)

.The emergency department at the Kings County Memorial Hospital in Montague will close early on Tuesday and Wednesday due to a temporary lack of staffing (cbc.ca)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ontario-landlord-tenant-board-wait-problems-collapse-1.6605631
A backlog of cases at the province’s Landlord and Tenant Board is creating hardship for tens of thousands of Ontarians who are having to wait more than half a year to settle a dispute.

#54 the Jaguar on 10.05.22 at 4:39 pm

@#36 Shawn on 10.05.22 at 3:41 pm
How many buy without CMHC these days?++++++

The example Garth gave is a purchase over one million. CMHC doesn’t insure above one million. Do the math with consideration for price point in GTA, etc. And it’s the shortfall position after disposition of the asset anyway for CMHC. You folks in Edmonton are like the gang that couldn’t shoot straight. The 1980’s example was about human behaviour, not present day situation. Mercy.

#55 Paul on 10.05.22 at 4:50 pm

#12 Calgary on 10.05.22 at 2:57 pm
Bank Foreclosure Homes for Sale started. Know one case in process.
————————————————
Banks don’t like to own houses, they go power of sale if there is a shortfall on the mortgage C.M.H.C makes up any shortage to the bank.

#56 TurnerNation on 10.05.22 at 4:52 pm

The two main trades this week in my opinion are long Oil, Natural Gas, and by extension the TSX. Maple for the win?

————

Soon year3. Alllmost back to normal. Smoking Man did term it an Obedience Certificate. They are learning.
And, ZOMG a sore throat!

.Multiple Massachusetts colleges extend mask mandates indefinitelys (nypost.com)

.Mask Mandate Reinstated At Rutgers University After Faculty Legal Action (patch.com)

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/officials-sound-covid-alarm-ireland-28153897
Officials sound Covid alarm in Ireland after significant rise in cases amid new obvious symptom
The new symptom associated with Covid is a sore throat and two-thirds of all people now report having one when they first contract Covid.

#57 Starbucks on 10.05.22 at 5:03 pm

Renting a mattress in a shared room with a Landlord who doesn’t want ethnic meals in his home is the new way of life in Toronto.
While Trudeau sells the global citizens lies that Canada is welcoming for everyone, a shared room rental wants no exotic cuisine in their homes.
Is this the life we will live in Canada?
We own nothing but forced to be happy?

#58 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 5:05 pm

#21 Shawn

Oh Shawn, you young Babe in the Woods Albertan you.

Let a Paleo Albertan show you the veracity of your Building Permit assertion. One instance of many in the early 80s:

First Canadian Centre
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Canadian_Centre

Key Words:

“Original plans called for a two tower complex, with this tower being the first of the two tower project. The second tower would have had 64 storeys. A downturn in the local economy at that time forced plans for the second tower to be shelved.”

They HAD a Building Permit.

Or, when people bought magazines for the news, Maclean’s:

The golden West loses its lustre
https://archive.macleans.ca/article/1982/8/30/the-golden-west-loses-its-lustre

“Alberta is the hardest-hit province, with a 41-percent decline in construction expenditures …”

I was there then. The lights went out in the blink of an eye. The cranes were torn down just as fast.

They will soon enough in AB and Canada if BoC keeps raising rates.

#59 under the radar on 10.05.22 at 5:15 pm

55 correct . Bank is required to issue a Power of sale and see the sale process through to judgment and possession. If the bank suffers a loss , CMHC makes the Bank whole. Foreclosures are exceedingly rare in Ontario as the debtor has a statutory right to force the sale. A private lender might try and foreclose if they wanted to own the property or saw future upside. Banks never foreclose in Ontario.

#60 Prince Polo on 10.05.22 at 5:23 pm

For a country that is absolutely brain-dead when it comes to critical thinking about real estate, why not jump the shark and move to 100yr amortizations? Loser renters are social pariahs and a stain on this country’s future legacy of most “affordable” housing on the planet!

(99% sarcasm + 1% extreme fear that our dear Photo-op Minister will actually do the insane thing.)

#61 Sail Away on 10.05.22 at 5:27 pm

#57 Starbucks on 10.05.22 at 5:03 pm

Renting a mattress in a shared room with a Landlord who doesn’t want ethnic meals in his home is the new way of life in Toronto.

——-

Intolerant landlords!

I’m a big fan of Surstromming and occasionally leave half-full cans around for snacking. No big deal.

https://youtu.be/abZfprASfoo

#62 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 5:33 pm

One last Oil Salvo and the US Midterms …

OPEC+ to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day to shore up prices, defying U.S. pressure

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/05/oil-opec-imposes-deep-production-cuts-in-a-bid-to-shore-up-prices.html

Of course, Gov DEM USA White House saying – in a FAKE, One World, Adeste Fideles statement:

“disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.”

As if.

“Biden had directed the Department of Energy to release another 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve next month.”

They’re saying oil prices likely $90-$100 range. They were $88 today (Crude Oil Continuous Contract – NYMEX).

———————

If gas prices go up, the US Midterms are going to get ugly for the Dems.

As for me, my US Oil ETN relies on Contango. Mucho Contango in the above = Fat Dividends to come (yeah oil).

#63 Sail Away on 10.05.22 at 5:45 pm

#16 Faron on 10.05.22 at 3:03 pm
#134 Sail Away on 10.05.22 at 2:10 pm

You are an ignorant dolt at best. I can say this because you ignored clearly stated facts from me and the article and that level of ignorance is doltish.

This isn’t name calling…

——–

Actually, yes. Yes, it is.

Hey. Kids. Knockitoff. – Garth

#64 After Tax? on 10.05.22 at 5:49 pm

Look at Garth throw big numbers around, forgetting to remind us this is all sweet sweet after tax money, not pre-tax earnings.

$425,000 down payment, over $92,000 annually for mortgage alone. After Tax Money.

My favourite part?
“ (For sadism, you can add in property taxes, insurance premium, maintenance, water and possibly condo fees.)”

Sadism…ha! As of these things were optional or something. Sadism = Reality!

All money is after-tax. Duh. – Garth

#65 kommykim on 10.05.22 at 5:52 pm

RE:#43 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 4:17 pm
Bought more oil yesterday.
Will buy more today if TD WebBroker will only let me at my TWTR sell profit, I mean come on, how long does it take you to show it in my Balance when you show it in my Cash Account? (Immediate Gratification Me)

=======================================

Huh? WebBroker lets me buy Y ETF immediately after I sell an equal $ amount of X ETF… And no, I do not have a margin account.
The amount never shows up in my cash balance because the settlement dates for both Sell and Buy happen 3 days in the future.

#66 Faron on 10.05.22 at 5:58 pm

I’ll leave it with this Garth:

#63 Sail Away on 10.05.22 at 5:45 pm

Name calling would be to call you a fartface without evidence that you are flatulent, nor that the flatulence is emitted from anywhere other than south of the equator.

How would you characterize your complete ignoring of most of the referenced summary? The only thing I’d change is removing dolt and replacing with ideologue. Ignoring clearly stated facts is… ignorance. One who displays the characteristic of ignorance is ignorant. Sry, them’s the rules of this here language.

#67 Faron on 10.05.22 at 6:02 pm

#56 TurnerNation on 10.05.22 at 4:52 pm

As COVID fades and restrictions drop, it’s getting pretty fun to watch you roll back you conspiracy theory predictions. Thanks for the continual entertainment.

#68 ogdoad on 10.05.22 at 6:19 pm

Dear, Faron and Sail Away

Dudes, I don’t wanna be the one to say it….actually, yes I do, but…it sounds like you two have had a relationship before. And someone got hurt – really sorry. Rejection sucks, I know. I get it, I get rejected all the time just to hop back on that horse and work for success (which is starting to happen without me even thinking about it….fix that, Elon) anyway… It’ll happen, just give it time and acceptance…we’re all human beings with feelings and emotions, after all, right? Top of the food chain, about to be second on the scale of earthly intelligence, love snuggling…you get the picture, right?

Now, don’t we feel better?

Og

#69 jess on 10.05.22 at 6:21 pm

…the known knowns

..”In addition to lamenting the fact that regulations would require companies be accountable for oil spills, the document mentions the industry response to the Arrow disaster and new regulations: forming a new oil industry public relations group, the Petroleum Association for the Conservation of the Canadian Environment (PACE).

One of the actions prompted by one of the first major oil spills in North American waters was the Canadian oil industry launching a group to influence public opinion and legislation.

who remembers the SS Arrow?
https://www.desmog.com/2019/12/03/imperial-oil-arrow-spill-public-relations-exxon/
=============================

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ransomeware-hacker-vachon-desjardins-sentenced-1.6606274

#70 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 6:21 pm

#66 Faron on 10.05.22 at 5:58 pm
I’ll leave it with this Garth:

#63 Sail Away on 10.05.22 at 5:45 pm

Name calling would be to call you a fartface without evidence that you are flatulent, nor that the flatulence is emitted from anywhere other than south of the equator.

How would you characterize your complete ignoring of most of the referenced summary? The only thing I’d change is removing dolt and replacing with ideologue. Ignoring clearly stated facts is… ignorance. One who displays the characteristic of ignorance is ignorant. Sry, them’s the rules of this here language.

—————————

Boy oh boy…you’re like an alcoholic. The bartender needs to cut you off. Faron, time for that 86 step program. The first step is to admit you have a problem…

#71 Spanky on 10.05.22 at 6:23 pm

Foreclosure rates are meaningless in Canada because mortgage defaults are relatively rare. People just wither away and eventually are forced to sell, depressing prices further. – Garth

)))))))

Could be a bit of Recency Bias on that view GT. A more accurate statement might be :

“In the past 20 years, foreclosures were rare. In the 80’s, they were much more common. Given today’s massive debt loads, restructuring of mortgages into demand loans, sudden and huge spike in interest rates, massive HELOCs gambled on even more real estate purchases, we just really don’t know what the hell might happen. All we know for sure is that it doesn’t look like it did five, ten or fifteen years ago.”

Wrong. We do. Foreclosures are rare nationally and nonexistent in many jurisdictions. – Garth

#72 the jaguar on 10.05.22 at 6:29 pm

I apologize for my comment about Edmonton. A very community minded city with accomplished indivduals having lived there including members of my family. I also apologize to Shawn, who contributes a lot to this comment section.

#73 habitt on 10.05.22 at 6:35 pm

for 425k down payment one can pay cash for a very decent place in many parts of the country. Oh and them parts don’t give a rat’s … about taronto. sheesh

#74 poorrenterinBC on 10.05.22 at 6:37 pm

A friend bought a 2 million farm in the interior before they sold their “farm” in the Fraser Valley for 2.2 Million but they haven’t sold it and now listed at 1.8 Million with no bites

In two weeks they carry two mortgages until they sell. Yikes.

#75 crossbordershopper on 10.05.22 at 6:40 pm

its very normal that people had paid off houses, or almost, borrowed a heloc to reduce taxes with investment loans then buy rental property, and break even after the mortgage insurance and prop taxes.
for many this is a leveraged tax deduction of removing equity from principal residence to pay close to zero taxes.
i see people with 60k gross income and 22k in interest expense and small loss on there rental every year at tax time.
canada is weird place where wages are low, property values are too high, paid in cdn dollars, then taxes off that, so people do what they do, leverage against fixed asset (the only asset they can borrow against at lower rates) and buy more assets, not for capital gain, yes some do, but many its about saving on taxes.

#76 BillinBC on 10.05.22 at 6:45 pm

#39 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 3:59 pm
#27 Faron
#48 Faron

“You want me to lecture you on roughly everything having to do with geology, atmospheric science, atmospheric chemistry and a dash of geography?

No.

There’s not enough time in the day, Garth doesn’t want to read it and, most importantly, it would bear about as much fruit as giving a lecture to a stump, but would be far less enjoyable. At least with stumps, i’d be outside.”

It’s not only Garth who doesn’t want to read it. I’ll also bet 90% of readers are sick of your nasty broadsides and insults.

#77 Shirl Clarts on 10.05.22 at 6:48 pm

I’m getting tired of the news warning me to fill up because the price at the pumps is expected to go up another 5 cents in the coming days. Hmmm…. so better to pay $117.50 (on 50 litres) instead of $120.00. Wow, I better rush out the door now to save that $2.50! Not long ago, we were averaging about $87.50 a fill.

BTW, gas today on the drycoast is about $2.35 per litre.

At some point you just don’t care anymore. For most households, this is just going on the HELOC pile, so who cares.

For comparison, a 4 litre Organic jug of Milk is about $9.50. So in a few days, milk will be cheaper than gas. For real. What is going on?

#78 Man oh Man ... on 10.05.22 at 6:52 pm

Got over a hundred grand to “invest” and the banks don’t even return my calls. Can you believe? Can’t find any bodies they say. Too bad I say. But it’s still a glorious day out here on the left coast … all the better without the millenum what was his name? Life is goooood …..

#79 Faron on 10.05.22 at 7:02 pm

#76 BillinBC on 10.05.22 at 6:45 pm
#70 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 6:21 pm

Here come the fact-free trolls! Perfect timing boys. Now we just need Old Boot, some ImaGonnaaBeaSicka, Yukon Elvis, Penny Henny, a smidge of The Jaguar and we’ll have the whole crowd gathered.

#80 KuatoLives on 10.05.22 at 7:07 pm

You leave Vince out of this!

#81 The Lunatic at Large on 10.05.22 at 7:13 pm

FARON:
over and over and over you post.
Get some help, or start a blog of your own where you can be #1, and judiciously delete opponents to your hearts content!

#82 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.05.22 at 7:16 pm

@#79 Faron.
I’m still reeling from your fartface insult.
I’m confused.
How is that an insult?

#83 kommykim on 10.05.22 at 7:19 pm

RE:#77 Shirl Clarts on 10.05.22 at 6:48 pm
I’m getting tired of the news warning me to fill up because the price at the pumps is expected to go up another 5 cents in the coming days. Hmmm…. so better to pay $117.50 (on 50 litres) instead of $120.00. Wow, I better rush out the door now to save that $2.50! Not long ago, we were averaging about $87.50 a fill.

BTW, gas today on the drycoast is about $2.35 per litre.

At some point you just don’t care anymore. For most households, this is just going on the HELOC pile, so who cares.

For comparison, a 4 litre Organic jug of Milk is about $9.50. So in a few days, milk will be cheaper than gas. For real. What is going on?

=======================================

I don’t know… I was happy that the news told me since I got 50L at $2.09 ($104.50) instead of 50L at $2.35 ($117.50) a few days later for a difference of $13 which buys me over 8L of regular milk.
But don’t worry, I’m sure the dairy association has got some price increases coming for us to keep gas cheaper than “organic” milk…

#84 TalkingPie on 10.05.22 at 7:23 pm

#73 habitt on 10.05.22 at 6:35 pm
for 425k down payment one can pay cash for a very decent place in many parts of the country. Oh and them parts don’t give a rat’s … about taronto. sheesh
********************************************

Yup, I’m on board with you. My spouse and I are less than an hour from the country’s second largest city, paying our $1,200/month mortgage for a 2 story on a half acre we bought in 2018. Spent the day outside enjoying the 21 degree weather and fall colours today.

Why people with anywhere near the GTA median household income choose to remain there at current prices is beyond me.

#85 Grumpy Panda on 10.05.22 at 7:27 pm

My prediction is two years of bankruptcies followed by a new haircut and another Liberal federal win.

#86 tbone on 10.05.22 at 7:28 pm

# 78 MOM

Why not just open a brokerage account and place your orders yourself . Better than waiting for somebody .
All banks have a department.
Costs $ 9.99 a trade a TD .

The dude at the bank will charge $ 250.00 to place a trade for you. A friend was charged this much at TD.

#87 Don Guillermo on 10.05.22 at 7:44 pm

#40 Faron on 10.05.22 at 4:06 pm
#135 Don Guillermo on 10.05.22 at 2:56 pm

130 Faron on 10.05.22 at 1:45 pm
#120 Don Guillermo on 10.05.22 at 12:04 pm

Gosh, sorry to burden you with the intellectual equivalent of taking the half flight of stairs to get into the special McDonalds where they spoon feed the customers.

FFS.
####
Yikes, that was not one of your better come backs. I understand your occasional Wednesday afternoons could be busy. No worries.

On a lighter note, our beloved Jays have home field for the wildcard mini series with the Mariners. Alex M will pitch game one. Go Jays go!!!

#88 Steven on 10.05.22 at 7:44 pm

The best thing about the dive in real estate prices is no longer hearing daily..

“Know how much my house is worth now?”

Down goes Frazier.

#89 WTF on 10.05.22 at 7:46 pm

#25 Catalyst “I’ll take market freezes for 500 Alex. Single detached in the GTA will never be affordable to an ‘average’ household. What’s the percentage of SFD to total housing supply, probably 20% or less? Then it should be affordable to the top 10% probably.”
——————————————————————

Well Sure, Prices wont drop cause the top 10 % are chomping at the bit to live in some 50 yr old shitty bungalow in Scarberia.

Nope, no price freeze. We are in the Mexican standoff phase. To be supplanted by the we gotta unload NOW before my neighbor lists!

#90 Shawn on 10.05.22 at 7:47 pm

#72 the jaguar on 10.05.22 at 6:29 pm

I apologize for my comment about Edmonton. A very community minded city with accomplished indivduals having lived there including members of my family. I also apologize to Shawn, who contributes a lot to this comment section.

********************
Well, thank you! That was nice.

#91 Islandgirl on 10.05.22 at 7:58 pm

I can’t even fathom paying that much for a house. But all this talk of increasing interest rates had me calculating how much my mortgage is going to increase when it’s time to renew. I’m looking at $300 more a month to continue on the path to paying it off at the same rate. I feel sorry for the friends and family that owe more.

#92 Quintilian on 10.05.22 at 7:59 pm

For the pumpers and those highly indebted who say that prices haven’t nudged, here is an excerpt from the September Saretsky Report:

“Months of inventory at 5 is still considered a buyers market and prices
are reflecting that. The largest price corrections are still showing up for
detached houses.
The median price is now off 15% from the February
peak.”

I can’t see anything in the near future that would change the course of this impending crash, even in “the best place on earth, with billionaire immigrants arriving by the thousands per day.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#93 Squire on 10.05.22 at 8:07 pm

Turner Nation
Take that !
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zGiM5SSAvxs&feature=youtu.be

Central digital currency will not be your money

#94 Faron on 10.05.22 at 8:43 pm

#87 Don Guillermo on 10.05.22 at 7:44 pm

So, it having been shown that you’re unable to understand a very basic scientific summary, you resort to a totally baseless attack on my line of work and when and how I do it?

Utterly classless! Utterly unsurprising!

Yes, go Jays.

This is ending. Now. – Garth

#95 Steven Rowlandson on 10.05.22 at 8:48 pm

Maintaining the status quo in respect to payments and prices doesn’t work. Prices have to drop back to mid to late 1960s levels to end the current crime in progress.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.05.22 at 9:11 pm

Well well well.
Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewrat did NOT receive support from the Vancouver Police Union during this mayoral race.

No surprise.
Mayor Stewrat have publicly claimed the VPD were “systemically Racist” and the VPD should be “Defunded”.

No love lost between the Mayor and VPD.
Less than 2 weeks before the municipal election.

If Mayor Stewrat loses…
Expect in the next month or so for the Federal NDP to either give him a cushy, well compensated, NDP job OR a cushy, well compensated, Senate seat.
NDP leader Jaggy owes Kennedy Stewrat his very safe Burnaby NDP seat.

My money is on a Senate seat.
Senator Stewrat has a nice ring to it.

#97 I don't know on 10.05.22 at 9:12 pm

#92 Quintilian on 10.05.22 at 7:59 pm

Like our host has mentioned many times, those “highly indebted” people who locked in at 1-2% have borrowed free money with inflation at 7-8% (and likely to persist).

Demand is still present, it’s just been subdued by the recent rate hikes, which are gutting affordability by limiting the access to credit. The people with huge salaries and massive down payments are still buying, it’s everyone else who is worse off.

You are correct about us being in the beginnings of a crisis alright, but it’s one where housing affordability will continue to get worse, not better.

IDK

#98 Ponnaps on 10.05.22 at 9:33 pm

No one buys a 2mil house with a down payment from their pocket.. rather from a previously sold house representing upwards of 50% as down payment.. this then brings the monthly within the 4K range..easily affordable for a dual income family..

Miss the point much? Real estate equity is currently dropping and interest charges mounting. It’s not just about affording the monthly. – Garth

#99 Garrick on 10.05.22 at 9:34 pm

Please God, cut the power to Faron’s computer.

#100 Don on 10.05.22 at 9:52 pm

I sold my house just in time at peak mkt. Today I am renting one of those $2 mill homes for 4k/month. Will wait till 2024 to look around.
Thank you for the advice!
BTW, https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-mississauga-house-sells-for-54000-under-asking-after-fourth-price-drop/ Original list price $2.1 after 6 price drops finally sold still under asking!

#101 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 10:01 pm

#79 Faron on 10.05.22 at 7:02 pm
#76 BillinBC on 10.05.22 at 6:45 pm
#70 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 6:21 pm

Here come the fact-free trolls! Perfect timing boys. Now we just need Old Boot, some ImaGonnaaBeaSicka, Yukon Elvis, Penny Henny, a smidge of The Jaguar and we’ll have the whole crowd gathered.

———————————

Garth – this is a reflection on you and your blog that you allow/enable this person’s abusive behaviour to continue. No one forces us to read through the comments but you moderate them and it doesn’t look good on you. If I was your client, I’d be taking a moment to think about if my values continued to align with you and your firm. Just saying.

You certainly can vaporize this comment, ban me, suspend me, add a put down to seemingly put me in my place, whatever your flavour but what you’re allowing Faron to spew on a daily basis…what more is there to say?

If only opinions and comments which align with ‘my values’ were published here it would become a meaningless echo chamber in which none of us would grow or be challenged. I have made it clear many times where the red line is drawn. – Garth

#102 yvr_lurker on 10.05.22 at 10:28 pm

Prediction is that indeed prices will lower somewhat but generally the market will freeze up as many people who have paid off or nearly paid off places have no need to sell… only those recent buyers who have overextended themselves and have to renew, or the investor class who bought multiple rental properties are in the soup…. For most, there is no need or incentive to sell…. as a result, with less out there to buy, rentals will go skywards as the competition with the huge number of immigrants who need rentals will increase substantially…

#103 mike from mtl on 10.05.22 at 10:28 pm

..Well, so much for the anti-rent argument of “throwing your money away”,…
////////////////////////

Well here’s the reality of the last two plus decades, housing never loses. We’re truly special in that regard.

A housing bubble can’t end well for anyone right… yet here we are decades on beyond any rational doubt without consequence.

RE needs to come back to earth of 50-90% but I doubt that willl happen in living times. We’re so addicted to RE it’s never gonna happen.

#104 Father’s Daughter on 10.05.22 at 10:36 pm

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/lack-of-donations-high-inflation-crippling-food-banks-this-thanksgiving-1.6097555

Can’t feed your family.
ER’s overflowing. No family doctor.
Can’t afford to rent or buy.
Not sure how this ends well.

#105 good shape escort on 10.05.22 at 10:38 pm

Before Faron & Sail Away kiss & make up, I wonder if they could weigh in on which sensor to buy for a 97 Escort with a no start situation?

#106 Tony on 10.05.22 at 10:38 pm

Re: #47 The real Kip (Ret) on 10.05.22 at 4:23 pm

I got zilch but if I apply for disability I can get money and go back 10 years.

#107 Chocolate Dream on 10.05.22 at 11:11 pm

DELETED

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.05.22 at 11:16 pm

@#95 Fathers Daughter
“Can’t feed your family.
ER’s overflowing. No family doctor.
Can’t afford to rent or buy.
Not sure how this ends well.”
+++
Our Bungee Jumping PM is busy weeding out the politically incorrect in Hockey Canada.

Stock up on Kraft dinner and sweaters.
Winter is going to be long and cold.

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.05.22 at 11:23 pm

@#99 The Flatulence
“…..enable this person’s abusive behaviour to continue….”

+++
Sooo……
You get dissed and don’t like it….and the person should be banned?

Senator McCarthy would be proud.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjkt7L50sr6AhWyI30KHX38AgQQFnoECD0QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FMcCarthyism&usg=AOvVaw2bBC8Eh5AGi1jpdIwpmlIM&cshid=1665026490419613

“Are you NOW, or have you ever BEEN…. a member of the Flatulent Party?”

#110 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 11:39 pm

#101 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 10:01 pm
#79 Faron on 10.05.22 at 7:02 pm
#76 BillinBC on 10.05.22 at 6:45 pm
#70 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 6:21 pm

Here come the fact-free trolls! Perfect timing boys. Now we just need Old Boot, some ImaGonnaaBeaSicka, Yukon Elvis, Penny Henny, a smidge of The Jaguar and we’ll have the whole crowd gathered.

———————————

Garth – this is a reflection on you and your blog that you allow/enable this person’s abusive behaviour to continue. No one forces us to read through the comments but you moderate them and it doesn’t look good on you. If I was your client, I’d be taking a moment to think about if my values continued to align with you and your firm. Just saying.

You certainly can vaporize this comment, ban me, suspend me, add a put down to seemingly put me in my place, whatever your flavour but what you’re allowing Faron to spew on a daily basis…what more is there to say?

If only opinions and comments which align with ‘my values’ were published here it would become a meaningless echo chamber in which none of us would grow or be challenged. I have made it clear many times where the red line is drawn. – Garth

————————————

I do understand it’s hard to turn off the tap on an abuser who’s done it for so long that you’ve become desensitized to their abuse. I know you see way worse every day. I can’t condone that you would allow this to continue though. I wish you well in your endeavours. Good luck.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.05.22 at 11:59 pm

@#93 Squire
Re;
Central Digital currency.
Good video about “Johnny Cash”.
Nothing like the Orwellian govt controlling where, when and what you spend your money on.

Here’s a link on China’s foray into the digital currency world.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiAzsq92Mr6AhWTLH0KHQAMDNcQFnoECAgQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fhir.harvard.edu%2Fdigital-dynasties-how-chinas-cryptocurrency-could-unseat-the-dollar%2F&usg=AOvVaw1bD1Oaz9u2lXgR1SxW5h3B

China has almost 250 million users (out of 1.4 billion peeps) of its current digital currency app buying, selling, etc..
China has also watched the US slam Russia via SWIFT transactions for the Ukraine war and if they plan on invading Taiwan….they need to prepare!
Long term ramifications……
If a digital Renminbi gains popularity with foreign govts that break US sanctions….
Look out US dollah!
1.4 billion Chinese and 1.1 billion Indians swinging their digital dollahs into RMB could get ugly.
Africa’s 1 billion people might be tempted?
Russia? Da! Da!
Trudeau as a spokesperson for the politically correct RMB?
Only an election in the future knows for sure.

#112 Russ on 10.06.22 at 12:04 am

Flip, Flop & Fly,
dciId

551 Nova might be a dead end.

This DDGo link at the Redfin mark shows the 291k sell but if you go to the link there is no further info on selling price.
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=551+nova+street+nanaimo&ia=maps

A real tor friend, Rtd, contacted a mate still in the field and reported there was no summer transaction on 551 Nova that he/she/it could find.

A nice home & carriage house across the street (sorta) was listed at 650K.

Cheers, R

#113 Observer on 10.06.22 at 12:14 am

#101 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 10:01 pm
#79 Faron on 10.05.22 at 7:02 pm
#76 BillinBC on 10.05.22 at 6:45 pm
#70 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 6:21 pm

Here come the fact-free trolls! Perfect timing boys. Now we just need Old Boot, some ImaGonnaaBeaSicka, Yukon Elvis, Penny Henny, a smidge of The Jaguar and we’ll have the whole crowd gathered.

———————————

Garth – this is a reflection on you and your blog that you allow/enable this person’s abusive behaviour to continue. No one forces us to read through the comments but you moderate them and it doesn’t look good on you. If I was your client, I’d be taking a moment to think about if my values continued to align with you and your firm. Just saying.

You certainly can vaporize this comment, ban me, suspend me, add a put down to seemingly put me in my place, whatever your flavour but what you’re allowing Faron to spew on a daily basis…what more is there to say?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Woosh, I think you have some things backwards. Your viewpoint isn’t necessarily reality . Faron comes out swinging, but the commenters drive the reaction due to the nature of their comments. Do you think everyone should think like you do?

#114 Russ on 10.06.22 at 12:24 am

.
.
Hey. Kids. Knockitoff. – Garth
.
.
Faron plays the Sicilian…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhXjcZdk5QQ

and then “I don’t think you know what that word means…”

Cheers, R

#115 DON on 10.06.22 at 12:41 am

#97 I don’t know on 10.05.22 at 9:12 pm
#92 Quintilian on 10.05.22 at 7:59 pm

Like our host has mentioned many times, those “highly indebted” people who locked in at 1-2% have borrowed free money with inflation at 7-8% (and likely to persist).

Demand is still present, it’s just been subdued by the recent rate hikes, which are gutting affordability by limiting the access to credit. The people with huge salaries and massive down payments are still buying, it’s everyone else who is worse off.

You are correct about us being in the beginnings of a crisis alright, but it’s one where housing affordability will continue to get worse, not better.

IDK

************
Playing a little fast and furious with the facts there I don’t have a clue.

How many people locked in? Compared with the huge amount of people that went variable even though they were warned by Garth or others in their lives. You better hope your neighbours don’t have to sell! As for demand…check out the blog name.

Beetle Juice Beetle Juice BEETLE JUICE.

#116 DON on 10.06.22 at 12:56 am

#105 good shape escort on 10.05.22 at 10:38 pm
Before Faron & Sail Away kiss & make up, I wonder if they could weigh in on which sensor to buy for a 97 Escort with a no start situation?

********

Mine was a bad distributor on the truck and a bad fuel pump on the SUV (in both cases the engine was turning over each time just wouldn’t catch). Narrowed it down going through the tests. I was hoping it was just the fuel relay fuse or the coil but not that lucky. Oh well everything needs replacing sooner or later. Thinking about getting a Flintstone car.

#117 VicPaul on 10.06.22 at 1:23 am

#76 BillinBC on 10.05.22 at 6:45 pm
#39 Søren Angst on 10.05.22 at 3:59 pm
#27 Faron
#48 Faron

It’s not only Garth who doesn’t want to read it. I’ll also bet 90% of readers are sick of your nasty broadsides and insults.

*********
Um, yes. Unbridled ideological arrogance mixed with juvenile singsong ad hominem bleatings has become off-putting.
I see the same helplessness of his addiction to the fight as Whoosh – a little Quixote for climate…ten entries/night.
Sad, in his clownish, narcissistic kinda way.

M58BC

#118 Steven Rowlandson on 10.06.22 at 3:31 am

Sounds like a real food fight.

#119 Outrage on 10.06.22 at 5:11 am

I met a British Woman here in Turkey but owns a condo in Bulgaria. She’s been living there for over 8 years .She says UK is just as screwed as Canada. Retire where you can have a higher standard of living or suffer 8 months of winter and taxed to death in Canada. Turkey is cheap but has high inflation that Canada will come to know very soon .

#120 Sail Away on 10.06.22 at 6:16 am

#105 good shape escort on 10.05.22 at 10:38 pm

Before Faron & Sail Away kiss & make up, I wonder if they could weigh in on which sensor to buy for a 97 Escort with a no start situation?

——–

No makeup, because as usual, I am clean as the driven snow and also don’t accept apologies full of hidden motives.

Regarding the car, are you sure it’s a sensor? Start at the battery and systematically run through a troubleshooting sequence to noodle it out. If it is a sensor, the error code should identify it.

#121 Sail Away on 10.06.22 at 6:49 am

#137 Wrk.dover on 10.05.22 at 8:32 pm

I just talked with a marine insurance adjuster.

Quote “If I can’t do a repair in a timely fashion, I will write off any boat and pay out it at full value.”

“There is no hope in hell of repairing any volume of the tens of thousands of boats in Florida.”

“Anyone taking an empty trailer to Florida will come home with a blemished bargain of their lifetime”

Are there any would be boaters on this blog stubbornly parsimonious enough to miss this opportunity?

———-

Wow, there are some seriously high-end boats with minimal damage being salvage auctioned for seriously low prices. Deals galore for someone who knows boats. And I’m currently boatless. Hmmm…

If I were to do this, and I might, I’d probably take a few weeks and fly down to browse, buy a trailer there, rent a one-way uhaul to tow it back, and end up with a gem for a song.

Good idea. Thanks!

#122 Squire on 10.06.22 at 8:23 am

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.05.22 at 11:59 pm
@#93 Squire
Re;
Central Digital currency.
Good video about “Johnny Cash”.
Nothing like the Orwellian govt controlling where, when and what you spend your money on.

Here’s a link on China’s foray into the digital currency world.
——–
Thanks, it is an interesting view. However, it won’t go down that way. Xi is even more isolated than Putin. This is China’s last decade in it’s current form. Also worth noting is that Japan has the world’s 2nd most powerful navy not China.

#123 Dharma Bum on 10.06.22 at 8:27 am

#119 Outrage

Turkey is cheap but has high inflation that Canada will come to know very soon.
———————————————————————————————————-

YES! Sooner than you think. After all, Thanksgiving is right around the corner!

Canadians will be sure to get smacked in the face with the realization that Turkey prices are high and inflation is to blame.

You see? I SMART! Not like everybody says – like dumb. I’m SMART! And I want RESPECT!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zgHXHtHSsNo

#124 Dharma Bum on 10.06.22 at 8:41 am

“Children grow up dreaming of world peace and climate justice instead of a condo in Etobicoke. ” – Garth
———————————————————————————————————-

Of course they do.

Also, they will know about guilt for their mere existence, the evils they permanently inherited from their colonialist ancestors, gender is a construct, dating is misogyny, gender transition is preferable starting at age 5 or earlier, school boards and other authorities must bury their heads in the sand when trans teachers teaching shop class wear basketball sized prosthetics, carbon taxes will save the planet so be prepared to pay through the nose, bicycle lanes on highways are good, interest rates should stay low forever, math questions have multiple answers – it’s all in how you feel, honey, and electric cars and windmills are the solution to prevent melting glaciers and rising sea levels by next year.

Thanks to the “new education” governed by SJWs and wokesters.

#125 IHCTD9 on 10.06.22 at 9:08 am

#120 Sail Away on 10.06.22 at 6:16 am
#105 good shape escort on 10.05.22 at 10:38 pm

Before Faron & Sail Away kiss & make up, I wonder if they could weigh in on which sensor to buy for a 97 Escort with a no start situation?
____

If it’s totally dead (turns over fine but not a single pop from the exhaust), it’s probably the CPS (crankshaft position sensor).

#126 IHCTD9 on 10.06.22 at 9:17 am

#116 DON on 10.06.22 at 12:56 am
#105 good shape escort on 10.05.22 at 10:38 pm
Before Faron & Sail Away kiss & make up, I wonder if they could weigh in on which sensor to buy for a 97 Escort with a no start situation?

********

Mine was a bad distributor on the truck and a bad fuel pump on the SUV (in both cases the engine was turning over each time just wouldn’t catch). Narrowed it down going through the tests. I was hoping it was just the fuel relay fuse or the coil but not that lucky. Oh well everything needs replacing sooner or later. Thinking about getting a Flintstone car.
____

Yes fuel pump is a good bet too. You can turn the key one click and you should hear it turn on for a second or two to prime the system then shut off.

Your truck must be pretty old to have one of those distributor thingies :)

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.22 at 9:21 am

@#122 Squire
“Japan has the world’s 2nd most powerful navy not China.”

+++
Someone should tell the Chinese.

#128 the Jaguar on 10.06.22 at 9:23 am

Fill up your gas tank snippet/smidge !

‘VIENNA/LONDON • OPEC+ agreed steep oil production cuts on Wednesday, curbing supply in an already tight market, causing one of its biggest clashes with the West as the U.S. administration called the surprise decision short-sighted. The White House said President Joe Biden would continue to assess whether to release further strategic oil stocks to lower prices.

“The President is disappointed by the short-sighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” the White House said.

Biden faces low approval ratings ahead of midterm elections due to soaring inflation and has called on Saudi Arabia, a long-term U.S. ally, to help lower prices.
U.S. officials have said part of the reason Washington wants lower oil prices is to deprive Moscow of oil revenue. Biden travelled to Riyadh this year but failed to secure any firm co-operation commitments on energy. Relations have been further strained as Saudi Arabia has not condemned Moscow’s actions in Ukraine.’

(Guess that’s what happens when one references a ‘long-term U.S. ally’ as a “pariah”. and what about the ‘tremendous opportunity’ offered by LNG after the pipeline terrorist act. Yes, that is the correct word as sabotage can only be used when you own up to the deed. )

#129 millmech on 10.06.22 at 9:46 am

Houses now under $700k (soon to be under $500k) in Chilliwack now, you can a house with a basement suite. Houses out there are now cheaper than a Surrey bachelor suite and you have two rental incomes.

#130 Westcdn on 10.06.22 at 9:51 am

Calgary RE is declining but not as severe as Toronto. There is a lack of good housing at affordible prices here.

I have finally reduced my Helco to what I consider appropriate. I split my Helco into Persoan and business sub accounts a while back. I am ready for government weasels. At least racoons wear a mask. The personal amount is cleared out and ready to deploy some small change.

I am having trouble to find financial things I want to put money into. I am anticipating a recession with higher interest ratss and more QT. I am wary of the effect on cash flows. Maybe the market rally is for real but nothing yet has convinced me to change my mind.

REITs have taken a hit recently. I don’t know what that is about. There are valid reasons. A few REITs have my interest but currently have plenty of them and will watch. I could use more energy thingies. I have started looking at Put options in the transportation industry. Either idea are the best I can find at the moment.

#131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.22 at 10:01 am

Tim’s boycotting Hockey Canada.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/telus-hockey-canada-1.6607959#:~:text=On%20Wednesday%2C%20Tim%20Hortons%20announced,the%20men's%20world%20junior%20championships.

How about Canada boycott Tim’s for a day?

#132 Matthew King on 10.06.22 at 10:02 am

The crazy things is though, prices on rental units are soaring. I’ve been scouring the market in search of an apartment in the Hamilton area, having been displaced by a fire in my former building that has caused smoke damage to my unit, forcing me to relocate. The landlord is also in the process of using this as an opportunity to proceed with and eviction and change the unit to a “commercial unit” as the basis for this action. I was paying south of $1000 and he knows he may be able to double the rent and use the insurance money for his free renovation. He’s a great guy…

Some examples of recent changes:

A 1 Bedroom unit on 100 Main St.:

2018: $1200
2022: $2000

Another 1 bedder up on the soulless mountain:

2020: $950
2022: $1500

You get the idea.

God help you if your household isn’t pulling in 6 figures a year to survive in these current conditions.

#133 IHCTD9 on 10.06.22 at 10:08 am

#102 yvr_lurker on 10.05.22 at 10:28 pm.

…as a result, with less out there to buy, rentals will go skywards as the competition with the huge number of immigrants who need rentals will increase substantially…
_____

This is one area I keep an eye on. So many stories of “renovictions”, “family moving in”, “selling” – all kinds of pressures to get renters to leave spilling out onto the www. There is a ton of money to be made in getting a long time renter out of a rent controlled apartment right now. Lately there are stories of LL’s refusing to provide a formal Lease – take it or leave it. Lots of hopefuls behind you in line. Then there’s the international student illegal sardine can rental house strategy. Shenanigans galore surrounding rentals right now.

The GTA/GVRD are hell-holes in the making for anyone trying to start a life.

#134 Flop… on 10.06.22 at 10:09 am

12 Russ on 10.06.22 at 12:04 am
Flip, Flop & Fly,
dciId
551 Nova might be a dead end.
This DDGo link at the Redfin mark shows the 291k sell but if you go to the link there is no further info on selling price.
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=551+nova+street+nanaimo&ia=maps
A real tor friend, Rtd, contacted a mate still in the field and reported there was no summer transaction on 551 Nova that he/she/it could find.
A nice home & carriage house across the street (sorta) was listed at 650K.
Cheers, R

/////////////::::////////////////////////////

Hey Russ, I did have another look for about 15 minutes last night at the Nanaimo landscape.

Was trying to narrow down when the latest house sold date was.

Went to Redfin, Honest Door, and the likes, they had newer solds than Rew, but still bit of a lag.

I then clicked on a few brokerages, whittled it down, but you don’t get the broad market brush.

One guy had a sale up from last week, reasonable timing, some of the sales that come up as sold today on Zealty actually got sold weeks ago and that’s just when the ink dries.

Nova, not sure, mistakes happen, information gets contaminated as it works it way through the system.

The few ones where the average house is going for 600k and had a sale recorded in the 200s, I attribute to a split block at this stage, as there’s no reason for a fire sale at this stage.

Did I miss anything in the comments section?

Meh.

Just another day at the I’m not o.k corral…

M48BC

#135 IHCTD9 on 10.06.22 at 10:32 am

#70 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 6:21 pm

Boy oh boy…you’re like an alcoholic. The bartender needs to cut you off. Faron, time for that 86 step program. The first step is to admit you have a problem…
______

I’m thinking undiagnosed personality disorder, specifically NPD. Here are a few symptoms:

Have an exaggerated sense of self-importance

Have a sense of entitlement and require constant, excessive admiration

Believe they are superior and can only associate with
equally special people

Monopolize conversations and belittle or look down on
people they perceive as inferior

Have significant interpersonal problems and easily feel slighted

React with rage or contempt and try to belittle the other person to make themselves appear superior

Have difficulty regulating emotions and behavior

Behave in an arrogant or haughty manner, coming across as conceited, boastful and pretentious

Sound about right?

#136 Father's Daughter on 10.06.22 at 10:40 am

#133 IHCTD9 on 10.06.22 at 10:08 am
#102 yvr_lurker on 10.05.22 at 10:28 pm.

…as a result, with less out there to buy, rentals will go skywards as the competition with the huge number of immigrants who need rentals will increase substantially…
_____

This is one area I keep an eye on. So many stories of “renovictions”, “family moving in”, “selling” – all kinds of pressures to get renters to leave spilling out onto the www. There is a ton of money to be made in getting a long time renter out of a rent controlled apartment right now. Lately there are stories of LL’s refusing to provide a formal Lease – take it or leave it. Lots of hopefuls behind you in line. Then there’s the international student illegal sardine can rental house strategy. Shenanigans galore surrounding rentals right now.

The GTA/GVRD are hell-holes in the making for anyone trying to start a life.

——————————————————

Yes. You spend everything you make on rent, probably don’t have laundry services, most likely have loud construction going everywhere, possibly bugs. It’s not like these rentals are even great. I don’t even have hot water in my shower in the winters (I’ve asked to have this fixed, apparently, not possible). My landlord will surely be happy when we give notice, as the rents have increased substantially since move in only 3 years ago. Anyone who gets evicted right now is screwed. Many renters can’t come up with $500 extra per month.

#137 Observer on 10.06.22 at 10:49 am

#135 IHCTD9 on 10.06.22 at 10:32 am
#70 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 6:21 pm

Boy oh boy…you’re like an alcoholic. The bartender needs to cut you off. Faron, time for that 86 step program. The first step is to admit you have a problem…
______

I’m thinking undiagnosed personality disorder, specifically NPD. Here are a few symptoms:

Have an exaggerated sense of self-importance

Have a sense of entitlement and require constant, excessive admiration

Believe they are superior and can only associate with
equally special people

Monopolize conversations and belittle or look down on
people they perceive as inferior

Have significant interpersonal problems and easily feel slighted

React with rage or contempt and try to belittle the other person to make themselves appear superior

Have difficulty regulating emotions and behavior

Behave in an arrogant or haughty manner, coming across as conceited, boastful and pretentious

Sound about right?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

If you are talking about SailAway, then yes absolutely that sounds about right.

Faron is not even close. He gives a shit about the world (climate change for example). Anti-socials do not.

#138 Quintilian on 10.06.22 at 10:49 am

#97 I don’t know on 10.05.22 at 9:12 p
“The people with huge salaries and massive down payments are still buying, it’s everyone else who is worse off.”

Sure, no matter how bad things get, there will always be people who can afford to buy Rolls-Royce’s , but it’s the Honda buyers who keep the auto industry going.

The bubble will pop, and the politics are so well aligned to let it happen, because Jay is posing in front of the bubble with a needle in hand to take the blame.

Big money will love the reset.

#139 Sail Away on 10.06.22 at 11:27 am

When Chuck Norris attends a feminist rally, he comes back with an ironed shirt and a sandwich

#140 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.06.22 at 11:57 am

127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.22 at 9:21 am
@#122 Squire
“Japan has the world’s 2nd most powerful navy not China.”

+++
Someone should tell the Chinese.
——————-
Yeah,
Maybe you should visit China and see what a beautiful country it is.
Full of nice people.
And get some first hand knowledge, rather than rely on lopsided Google news.
We’re going next year again.
Right after visiting the Baltic and St. Petersburg.
Looking forward to it.

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.22 at 11:58 am

@#136 F.D.
“Anyone who gets evicted right now is screwed. Many renters can’t come up with $500 extra per month.”
+++
Yep.

It seems like apartments and condos are being snapped up by pension funds and Reits these days.
I’m renting in an apartment block that has changed ownership in the last two years.
The 40 year old building was in great shape. New elevator upgrades 3 years ago. A little dated but ok.
The new management company has been non stop in their renovictions.
“Upgrading all vacant suites” ( water shut off weekly)
“Upgrading all common hallways.”
“Upgrading the Laundry room”
“Upgrading the fitness room”
“Upgrading the exterior concrete cladding”
On and on and on
6 days a week 7am to 7pm.
For 2 + years.
Oddly enough the long term renters aint budging.
:) .
I can tolerate noise for $1000 less per month
The new renters move in to exorbitantly priced suites, listen to the endless hammering, drilling and demolitions….and move out.
Quite a turnover of new tenants.

Another money grab is single family homes.
Blackrock in the US is snapping up hundreds of private homes and rents them out.
Renters seem to like the zero maintenance “have a leak call the landlord” style of living.

It will be interesting to see how egregious the rents get before voters scream at govt for a solution.
.

#142 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.06.22 at 12:00 pm

139 Sail Away on 10.06.22 at 11:27 am
When Chuck Norris attends a feminist rally, he comes back with an ironed shirt and a sandwich
——————————-
Chuck Norris?
Is he campaigning for Herschel Walker?
Bring out the White Hillbilly vote?

#143 Look Inward, Addict on 10.06.22 at 12:05 pm

#79 Faron on 10.05.22 at 7:02 pm
#76 BillinBC on 10.05.22 at 6:45 pm
#70 The Woosh on 10.05.22 at 6:21 pm

Here come the fact-free trolls! Perfect timing boys. Now we just need Old Boot, some ImaGonnaaBeaSicka, Yukon Elvis, Penny Henny, a smidge of The Jaguar and we’ll have the whole crowd gathered.

=========================================

Funny, you list all these people you don’t get along with yet can’t seem to see who the common denominator is in all of the interactions. Astoundingly lacking in observation ability considering the stated profession.

You rarely, like literally almost never, add anything but nastiness to the comments. Are you surprised that so many are just plain tired of you? You never seem to grasp that your personality moots your opinions.

You can claim to not care if people like you, but you obviously have a pathological need to try and convince people you’re “right”. Normal people instinctively realize that they’ll never change people’s minds if they’re inherently unlikeable. Hearts then minds, y’know? Ergo, not really sure why you spend so much time here posting over and over.

Masochist? Or just another immature reaction-seeker the internet is chock full of already?

#144 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.06.22 at 12:12 pm

131 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.22 at 10:01 am
Tim’s boycotting Hockey Canada.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/telus-hockey-canada-1.6607959#:~:text=On%20Wednesday%2C%20Tim%20Hortons%20announced,the%20men's%20world%20junior%20championships.

How about Canada boycott Tim’s for a day?
——————————-
I was involved with Hockey BC when my son was playing.
They and Hockey Canada have a serious sexual violence and overall harassment issues.
It’s time people know what’s going on in the dressing rooms.
And many parents are silent bystanders.

#145 Just 2 cents on 10.06.22 at 12:24 pm

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.22 at 9:21 am
@#122 Squire
“Japan has the world’s 2nd most powerful navy not China.”

+++
Someone should tell the Chinese.

====================================

Not an expert by any means but I believe it has to do with how naval power is defined. If it’s by sheer number of vessels then China is arguably the “most powerful”, especially with their fleets of “fishing boats” lurking around.

But if it’s the ability to project naval power, then Squire is correct. The US is far and away # 1 and in a class of its own, but Japan has the 2nd most powerful “blue-water” navy. Not China, which has its naval power concentrated in littoral fleet types.

For the obvious reason of wanting to illegitimately invade Taiwan, of course.

#146 DON on 10.06.22 at 12:40 pm

#126 IHCTD9 on 10.06.22 at 9:17 am
#116 DON on 10.06.22 at 12:56 am
#105 good shape escort on 10.05.22 at 10:38 pm
Before Faron & Sail Away kiss & make up, I wonder if they could weigh in on which sensor to buy for a 97 Escort with a no start situation?

********

Mine was a bad distributor on the truck and a bad fuel pump on the SUV (in both cases the engine was turning over each time just wouldn’t catch). Narrowed it down going through the tests. I was hoping it was just the fuel relay fuse or the coil but not that lucky. Oh well everything needs replacing sooner or later. Thinking about getting a Flintstone car.
____

Yes fuel pump is a good bet too. You can turn the key one click and you should hear it turn on for a second or two to prime the system then shut off.

Your truck must be pretty old to have one of those distributor thingies :)

***********
The feul pump on the SUV did engage but was weak then stopped working the next day. When my wife said it was chugging upon acceleration I knew it was the costly pump in the tank.

Truck is a 1995 GMC Sierra 4×4. Was my parents truck and my sis gifted it to me to maintain it. Mint condition…almost a collector (2025), but easy to work on as you know. Back in the day when I borrowed it from parents…it had to come back gased up and clean…that was the deal.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.22 at 12:40 pm

@#140 Proletariate Ponzie
“We’re going next year again.
Right after visiting the Baltic and St. Petersburg.”

+++
Renewing your vows at Lenin and Mao’s tombs?

#148 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.06.22 at 12:51 pm

@#144 Ponzies Parenting Perils.

Yes .
All this was ALL dragged out in front of the media when several NHL players “outed” Minor League hockey decades ago.
Semi pro Hockey was also dragged through the gutter for their ignoring of issues.
Assaults, hazing, drunken parties, on and on and on.
News decades ago.
Teenagers away from family tend to do things they regret. Or trapped with Pedophiles in positions of power.
The solution?
Publicity and charges.
OR
We shut everything down and only allow our diabetic, obese children a “safe space” in the basement where they can cocoon until 45 or 50.

Far be it for me to also suggest The Prime Minister is jumping on the band wagon for free publicity/ votes.

#149 Ustabe on 10.06.22 at 2:30 pm

To all of those carrying water for Sail Away in this Faron/Sail Away on going kerfuffle I’d like to point out that you are either ignorant of the genesis of this thing or are willfully ignoring it.

Long ago a small group decided to publicly question Faron’s sexuality, threaten his job and in general make utter fools of them selves. Some no longer post, some stick their fingers in their ears and go all la-la-la, I can’t hear you while one persists.

While I’m sure Sail Away welcomes (and needs) the support, it is support for a man who willingly entered into a toxic online relationship.

His bed, he made it, the rest of you need to stand by and stand down.

#150 John Foster on 10.06.22 at 3:34 pm

Sail Away,

Not sure about boats, but I know for a fact that you cannot bring a US registered salvaged car back to Canada. Check the rules.

#151 Sail Away on 10.06.22 at 3:58 pm

#149 Ustabe on 10.06.22 at 2:30 pm

His bed, he made it, the rest of you need to stand by and stand down.

——-

And, man, do I sleep like a baby in that bed. From 10pm to 5am, I am dead to the world. So good. It’s like REM cubed.

Then I awaken refreshed, rich, muscular, and entirely pain-free, don my good cargo shorts, and enjoy our wonderful tourist art mural while simultaneously perusing wildlife activity in Departure Bay and contemplating the plight of those less fortunate.

#152 Sail Away on 10.06.22 at 4:02 pm

#150 John Foster on 10.06.22 at 3:34 pm

Sail Away,

Not sure about boats, but I know for a fact that you cannot bring a US registered salvaged car back to Canada. Check the rules.

——–

Thanks, good info. I’ll look into it if we proceed.

#153 UCC on 10.06.22 at 5:10 pm

#44 JSS on 10.05.22 at 4:19 pm
“Or, will Ottawa cause the stress test to be lifted, bring in 50-year amortizations and pay for CMHC insurance, allowing 0% downs?”

I’ll bet on the “50 year ammo, and 0% down” option!

————-
Japan tried it and
“….the conclusion is reached that the 100-year mortgage has failed to increase the affordability of homes….”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/1061951895900047

Why would Canadians even consider taking 1/2 that path?

#154 SoggyShorts on 10.06.22 at 11:42 pm

#149 Ustabe on 10.06.22 at 2:30 pm
To all of those carrying water for Sail Away in this Faron/Sail Away on going kerfuffle I’d like to point out that you are either ignorant of the genesis of this thing or are willfully ignoring it.

Long ago a small group decided to publicly question Faron’s sexuality, threaten his job and in general make utter fools of them selves.
******************
I followed those exchanges rather closely and I’d say you are misrepresenting what happened, especially Sailo’s part in it.