Elections & markets

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RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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The Democrats have been calling the shots in Washington since Biden won back the US Presidency (yes, Trump did lose the US election despite his claims). Currently they control all branches of the US government (President, House and Senate), which, despite a lot of setbacks, has allowed them to pass some pretty big legislation bills including the infrastructure bill and the healthcare and climate spending package. But with US midterms approaching, their control could be at risk.

Today I’m going to discuss the US midterms and the potential implications for the US stock market.

Historically, the incumbent President’s party loses seats in US midterms. Midterms are essentially a referendum on the US President. For example, in the 22 midterm elections since 1934, the President’s party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. Given the Democrats hold a small majority in the House (221 Democrats to 212 Republicans) and an even split in the Senate, this election could shift the Congress and power back to the Republicans.

A few months ago many were calling for a ‘red wave’ with the Republicans expected to provide a shellacking to the Democrats. A lot has changed since then so it’s unlikely we’ll see this expected ‘red wave’.

In my view, the recent legislative wins like the clean energy bill, gasoline prices dropping from $5/gallon to $3.68/gallon, and the historic decision from the US Supreme Court to reverse Roe v Wade has greatly benefited the Democrats and President Biden. Biden’s approval ratings are up 6 points since the summer lows. Also weighing on the Republicans have been some important governor election losses and a few Senate candidates who seemed to be floundering like Herschel Walker in Georgia and Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania. Finally, Trump has seen his approval ratings hit new lows so this doesn’t appear to be helping as well.

Putting all that together it appears that the Republicans will not see that ‘red wave’, but odds still tip in favour of the Republicans taking back the House and possibly the Senate come November 8, 2022.

If this were to happen then this could be a good thing for the US equity markets. Historically, the S&P 500 has performed the best with a Democratic President and a Republican Congress. The best combination has been a split Congress (one Republican controlled chamber and one Democrat) and a Democratic President with the S&P 500 returning 14% annualized. The S&P 500 has also performed well (13% annualized) under a Democratic President and a Republican Congress. These are the likely outcomes in my view so this could be bullish for the markets heading into 2023.

Source: RBC Capital Markets

I was recently on BNN (shameless plug here) and outlined the factors that could lead to a year-end rally. Seasonality is a big one, which come late Oct/Nov turns very bullish. On average the S&P 500 returns 7.5% in the Nov to May months and just 0.5% in the Jun to Sept months. But the US midterms, or rather the conclusion of the midterms has been very bullish for stocks. As seen in the chart below, the S&P 500 has rallied strongly late in the year post US midterm elections, so we have that going for us, which is nice.

S&P 500 Average Performance in Midterms since 1950

Source: CNBC, LPL Financial Ryan Detrick

Looking further out and into 2023 the US midterms are demonstrably bullish for the markets based on the historical data. Below is the historical performance of the S&P 500 following US midterm elections, and the numbers are impressive. I looked at the last 15 US midterms going back to the early 1960s, and in every single case the S&P 500 was positive in the following 6 and 12 month period. It’s not often I come across statistics with that high of a positive ‘hit rate’. The average return 12 months after US midterms for the S&P 500 is 16% has been positive 100% of the time. This suggests a gain next year for the S&P 500.

S&P 500 Performance Following US Midterm Elections

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

I see a recovery in the markets in 2023 and these statistics are one component of that bullishness. The main risk to the economy and markets is inflation and whether the central bank rate hikes will help to rein it in. Whenever that happens, interest rates will peak, and this could usher in a new business cycle and bull market. I’m expecting this in 2023 which coincides with these bullish market statistics post US midterms. We’re not there yet, but we’re getting closer.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

97 comments ↓

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.22 at 10:12 am

I’m thinking there’s a LOT of voters that will punish the Republicans for their anti abortion stance.
Trumps’ mouth is just the icing on the cake.

With 100,000’s of thousands without power in the Maritimes.
Will people with low batteries stop texting and notice?

#2 Salish on 09.24.22 at 10:30 am

Zuckerberg once again accused of censoring protest on the Meta platform Instagram and Whattsup. Women are being murdered and crying out to the international community and are finding their outreach silenced. We know Zuckerberg infamously interfered with the presidential elections along with Twitter. Did he also attach himself to the Hate Harper campaign? Time will tell. You might find yourself accused of of being a conspiracy but by repeating and sharing obscure stories like this, but, remember how Trudeau was sheltered during the worst of the Convoy . If you want to keep your freedom don’t let Big Tech conspire to steal it from you .

And yes, we got whacked on Friday due to a panic sell off, boo hoo. Sales on, you won’t know it’s hit the bottom until you miss the first twenty percent.

#3 the Jaguar on 09.24.22 at 10:31 am

“A lot has changed since then so it’s unlikely we’ll see this expected ‘red wave’.” -RL +++

Hmmm….or it could be the’ Minsky Moment’ political equivalent for the Democrats, given the mid terms are only days after the Federal Reserve meets again with Republican J. Powell sure to raise rates again. Maybe De Santis will load up a few more bus loads of peeps to send off to Martha’s Vineyard, just to put hypocrisy back on full display for those with eyes wide open.

Not sure this chart ( S&P 500 Performance Following US Midterm Elections) can be applied to the present day mess the world finds itself in, post covid, supply chain breakdown, war overseas, and especially the mess south of the border. All due respect Ryan, we’re not in Kansas anymore…….

#4 Wrk.dover on 09.24.22 at 10:44 am

The repugnian former president employed Jerome Powell.

But how many US GOP voters even know who he is?

#5 Summertime on 09.24.22 at 11:27 am

You forgot to link market performance to lunar cycles.

As for the bullish 2023, I think there is high chance that bullish call to be totally off base.

There is a high chance to have a lost decade in stocks or at least for 3-5 years.

Putting expectations on short term market performance is very bold, considering the situation that we are in.

I won’t do it and feel very comfy almost completely out of stocks and entirely in inflation protected assets.

#6 Doug t on 09.24.22 at 11:29 am

Very bullish

#7 Søren Angst on 09.24.22 at 11:32 am

I vote for you.

#8 NyQuil Chicken Chef on 09.24.22 at 11:35 am

Happy Saturday Ryan!

Garth has asked me to inform all the deplorables here of a special event we are hosting for them today.

An exclusive Deplorables Buffet is happening tonight in Port aux Basques, NFLD. Please, everyone in steerage, grab any flight you can and make it out by 7 pm for a uniquely interesting chicken dinner.

(Just in case your plane lands safely, it would be smart to bring some extra batteries with you)

#9 Steven Rowlandson on 09.24.22 at 11:39 am

Fiscal and moral irresponsibility in government and society in general is the only real outcome of the democratic and marxist political process. To think otherwise is to deny the lessons of history.

#10 epic bear on 09.24.22 at 11:41 am

Fridays action…

92% downside volume
87% down stocks
8 new highs
1106 new lows.

Dow Jones closed at 52 week low
NYA closed at 52 week low
Transports closed at 52 week low

ya. the market will bounce after the election…. but maybe it goes 20% lower first lol

you’re in a bear market … not a bull market correction. you’re in a SECULAR BEAR MARKET. 1966-1982, 2000-2009, 1929-1942 etc…

the environment has changed. act accordingly.

#11 Nonplused on 09.24.22 at 11:41 am

“In my view, the recent legislative wins like the clean energy bill, gasoline prices dropping from $5/gallon to $3.68/gallon, and the historic decision from the US Supreme Court to reverse Roe v Wade has greatly benefited the Democrats and President Biden.”

Well, one thing Biden and the democrats have going for them is that the election will be before winter really sets in. The drop in gasoline prices from $5 to $3.68 is largely superficial, driven by demand destruction and releases from the SPR, both of which are unsustainable. Electricity and natural gas prices remain high. There is little to no new supply. And winter is coming. We are currently in a “shoulder season” for demand. The future is pretty easy to see here, a high likelihood of further demand destruction brought on by even higher prices. A possible ban on LNG exports, further exasperating the situation in Europe. New record highs in everything from natural gas to thermal coal to firewood. We could even see Germans freezing to death in their apartments. In a first world country.

After that, the political situation gets really dicey. It is impossible to say what happens next. It could be anything. Some people will call it “the fourth turning tipping point”. All that we can really be sure about is that things won’t be the same come January. Keep in mind that there is no prospect for Russian supplies of energy to return to Europe, not this winter and not perhaps in many years. All that can be accomplished at this point is to stop Russian exports to Asia, further worsening the global situation.

Yes, even nukes come into play. But we’ve been living with that fear since the ’60’s. MAD (mutual assured destruction) never went away. If anything it only got worse as the technology improved. Putin has been reminding people that the sword of Damocles is still hanging over the world and people in the west are acting like this is the first time they’ve heard of it, even though the west largely drove the creation of the beast. Most Soviet and Russian nuclear development has been reactionary. The US always invented the technology first, in everything from the first bomb to the first nuclear submarine to the first H-bombs (which are truly terrifying).

So while it is possible that this could be a one-issue election over Roe vs. Wade (and I doubt we even know what the actual sentiment is on that issue), by March I doubt we’ll even think it was important.

Remember, if Trudeau is talking about it, it is likely part of the Potemkin village.

Buy all the things. Especially survival gear. But probably sell that convertible BMW while you can and get a Jeep.

#12 Joe Lalonde on 09.24.22 at 11:44 am

It’s different this time.
China and Russia are no longer investing in the US Dollar exchange.
As required for international trade…

#13 Søren Angst on 09.24.22 at 11:46 am

I like your thinking a lot.

Still think oil refining scarcity will push up gas prices after the Midterms, meaning higher inflation.

Google Search: ‘oil refining shortage’ & you get this:

“Global refinery output has fallen by 3.3 million barrels a day since 2020. The United States, which has the world’s largest refining capacity, is producing the lowest volumes of fuel since 2014. – Jul 20, 2022”

Who knows if the shortage comes to the fore right away?

If it does then the US Fed rate increase respite for 2023

4.4% by end of 2022, 4.6% in 2023 = +0.2% rate hike

will go down the tubes along with the robust 12-14% S&P 500 historical rate increases after the Midterms.

——————

Seems a slim threat but 1 thing learned during & after Covid is this:

Expect the Unexpected.

#14 TurnerNation on 09.24.22 at 11:55 am

War on Small Business.
Remind me again why I shop online? Oh yeahhhh…this week I visited four local retail stores, one was a large chain.
All had staffers huddled behind medical-grade masks. Some avec blue gloves. It was sad, comical.
I was like what year is this, what PLANET am I on??
You see their sad eyes poking as you attempt communication though a solid plexiglass sheet.
Utter madness — into Year 3 of this rollout, 2023.

This country fell, fair and square, March 2020. It’s over. PP will lead us further into global tyranny and CHAOS (loony ideas like firing the BofC), bet on it.

–NOBODY loves Corvid more than Kanadians.
Why here are only two days of headlines from CP24.
Corvid permanent , Corvid is life. There is nothing else.

(Say put up your hand if you know someone dying or passed of cancer this year. All our hands should be up…
This is back-page news you know)

“Federal government unlikely to declare victory on COVID as travel restrictions loosen
HIV spike among B.C. drug users associated with COVID-19 lockdown, research says
Canadian study builds on link between long COVID and autoimmune diseases like lupus
City of Toronto pulls children’s COVID-19 vaccination video following online backlash
The City of Toronto ha
The number of children under the age of five getting vaccinated against COVID-19 in Ontario is even lower than the relatively small numbers many experts had expected.
COVID-19 vaccine uptake for young Ontario children lower than experts had expected”

#15 Søren Angst on 09.24.22 at 11:56 am

Me. Stanford.

Now RBC.

“RBC says Canada’s economic engine may soon face energy shortages”

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/rbc-says-canada-s-economic-engine-may-soon-face-energy-shortages-1.1821289

Long on fear. Short on numbers. But Me & Stanford have provided those already.

Il Electro Grido Canadese

[she’s going to be short of a full load – pun intended]

In need of more electricity production. Lots more.

But hey, get that EV ’cause you know … Trudeau says you should and it’s the Green thing to do (as the lights slowly dim).

———————-

Your EV future Canada courtesy of California, the Green + Alternatives

https://twitter.com/rhowardbrowne/status/1573306395918737409

https://twitter.com/sharrell_taylor/status/1573380585346703360

Pray Tesla gets the Solar Powered charging station experiment right. Besides the 1 in Arizona, you can always go to Tibet:

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/tesla-opens-first-charging-station-china-with-energy-storage-facilities-2021-06-23/

#16 Flop… on 09.24.22 at 12:04 pm

Work From Home, continues to shape real estate development in Vancouver to a small degree.

ICBC has apparently decided to sell their prime condo location Baby Blue Behemoth on The North Shore, on the lookout for a smaller place in Vancouver or Burnaby.

That building apparently used to have 1500 workers and they just don’t need it anymore in the new work world.

Another development in the flexible workplace is City of Merritt is switching to a four day work week.

That’s good for the local gun and ammunition store, as it will give workers an extra day to shoot things…

M48BC

#17 Guber on 09.24.22 at 12:09 pm

So when neither party controls the gov, markets do best.

Basically a case for a lot less gov…

Meanwhile, we have more consumer debt and corp debt than ever, the fed raising interest rates, the highest inflation in 40 years, an energy crisis (just ask the CEO of Saudi Armco), and a supply chain still messed up.

There is no good news anywhere.

And markets will rise?

#18 Ryan Lewenza on 09.24.22 at 12:18 pm

Guber “ So when neither party controls the gov, markets do best. Basically a case for a lot less gov…”

Correct. Gridlock is generally good for the equity markets. – Ryan L

#19 kommykim on 09.24.22 at 12:19 pm

RE: “I was recently on BNN”
========================================

What does Garth say about that?!

#20 Søren Angst on 09.24.22 at 12:21 pm

#5 Summertime

I won’t do it and feel very comfy almost completely out of stocks and entirely in inflation protected assets.

—————-

Pray tell what your “inflation protected assets” are?

You know, the ones yielding at least …

7%

#21 Faron on 09.24.22 at 12:36 pm

#1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.22 at 10:12 am
I’m thinking there’s a LOT of voters that will punish the Republicans for their anti abortion stance.
Trumps’ mouth is just the icing on the cake

Never underestimate the idiocy and latent racism of the Americans who make up Trump’s electorate. Plenty of goofs on the left too, to be fair.

#22 Søren Angst on 09.24.22 at 12:39 pm

Speaking of

“inflation protected assets”

I listened the guy (Ryan) today who said a while ago to get into dividend yielding stock for this year. I did.

Ya my stock price gain this year skirting close to 0% (+2.5% as of Fri close) but do I care?

No.

Dividends saving my Threadbare Portfolio’s heine (+2.5% price gain excl. dividends – down largely due to my TWTR Albatross single stock purchase):

US ETN = 46%, paid monthly
Cdn ETF = 20%, paid monthly
Cdn Oil ETF = 12%, paid quarterly

Je vous remercie Signore Ryan Lewenza.

Grazie Mille

[famous last words by me soon to be living in a Neo Fascist G7 country as of Monday morning] – Trudeau not looking so bad after all.

#23 Faron on 09.24.22 at 12:40 pm

#134 Dharma Bum on 09.24.22 at 8:52 am

Aw, what a sweet message to wake up to. I love being bathed in the loving kindness of your form of the Dharma. Just FYI, Buddhism is hella woke. May want to change your screen name to something more apt like Old Testament Clown.

#24 Ustabe on 09.24.22 at 12:46 pm

Canada records C$6.33 billion budget surplus over first four months of 2022-2023

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/canada-records-c633-bln-budget-surplus-over-first-four-months-202223-2022-09-23/

#25 Joseph R. on 09.24.22 at 12:54 pm

Excellent write-up, Ryan!

Now comes the nitpicking…

“Currently they control all branches of the US government (President, House and Senate).”

That is not correct. The three branches of government are: legislative, executive and judicial. Currently, the Democrats have two out of three.

The third branch, the judicial ought to be non-partisan. Unfortunately, due to the media and political circus created by Mitch McConnell (refusing to give Obama a Nominee during election years but giving one to Trump), the judicial has a clear conservative tilt.

The recent overturn of Roe v Wade showed it to everyone the doctrine of legal tradition “Stare Decisis” is pretty… flexible.

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.22 at 1:07 pm

@#8 Nyquil

Ya might want to save the jokes for a few days.
This is probably going to be the most expensive storm in Canadian History.
I have been texting relatives all across NS and PEI.
The photos are unbelievable.
Hundreds of power poles snapped, thousands of trees down.
Wharves washed out, houses gone.
I’ll be amazed if there isn’t anyone reported killed.
And its still going on.
We haven’t heard the worst of it yet.

#27 Mehling on 09.24.22 at 1:18 pm

Poor optics:

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/beef-wellington-230-flowers-more-details-on-how-the-governor-general-spent-99k-on-a-middle-east-trip

#28 Bill zufelt on 09.24.22 at 1:19 pm

Unless RE comes off a lot(30%)there is just way too much money(HELOC’s)sloshing around,not to mention gov’t cheques(child welfare is covering a pretty sizable chunk of living expenses alone)More free money and programs in the pipeline too.Not until we start to see interest rates come down(not just pause)which is likely 18-24 months away(at the very earliest)will we see stocks show life and that will be from levels a hell of a lot lower than what we have.Even after the recent slide the SP 500 is still double what it was 6 1/2 years ago—a pretty nice return not even including divvies.

#29 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.22 at 1:40 pm

@#27 Mehling
“Poor optics:”

+++
Once I realized the political appointees in the various levels of govt that are awarded their plush, honorary, govt jobs due to their political connections rather than any experience or ability.
My blood pressure returned to normal.

The G.G. is just another snuffling pig at the govt trough.
Grunting, pushing and squealing next to the Senators and other unnecessary bureaucrats for more taxpayer funded treats.

One wonders how former G.G. Julie Payette has survived on her lifetime pension and reduced office staff as an ex G.G. with an annual budget in the $500k range .
The horror must be unbearable…

#30 Dr V on 09.24.22 at 2:01 pm

26 Fartz – Looks bad. Prayers for and best of luck to everyone affected.

#31 Doug in London on 09.24.22 at 2:02 pm

So stock markets have dropped some recently, although not as much as they did during the awesome buying opportunity of March 2020. What to do? If you’re already fully invested than do NOTHING. If you aren’t fully invested, now is the time to top up your equity holdings. Who says Black Friday can’t come 2 months early, or Boxing Day 3 months early?

#32 Ryan Lewenza on 09.24.22 at 2:07 pm

kommykim “RE: “I was recently on BNN. What does Garth say about that?!”

He likes to give me the gears for sure about it but he lets me do my thing. I just really enjoy taking about the markets and portfolios so BNN is good for letting me do this. And Paul Bagnell is a pretty good human being in my books. – Ryan L

#33 Paul on 09.24.22 at 2:13 pm

1 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.22 at 10:12 am
I’m thinking there’s a LOT of voters that will punish the Republicans for their anti abortion stance.
Trumps’ mouth is just the icing on the cake.

With 100,000’s of thousands without power in the Maritimes.
Will people with low batteries stop texting and notice?
/////////////////////////////////////////////

Punish the Republicans! That’s rich the Democrat’s are going to be crippled .

#34 Dr V on 09.24.22 at 2:14 pm

2 Salish

“And yes, we got whacked on Friday due to a panic sell off, boo hoo. Sales on, you won’t know it’s hit the bottom until you miss the first twenty percent.”
————————————————-

Yeah, that one smarted a little. Still bought things though – one was at a 2 year low, the other pennies off
an 18 month low. As much dumb luck as anything. We’ll
have to see how those turn out.

#35 Gravy Train on 09.24.22 at 2:29 pm

#11 Nonplused on 09.24.22 at 11:41 am
[…] even though the [West] largely drove the creation of the beast.[…]

Do you not consider yourself part of the West? Would you prefer to be a citizen or resident of Moscow? I think Putin would welcome you, comrade, with open arms. And if you play your cards right, you may be conscripted into the Russian army to fight against Ukraine. From what you’ve been writing for months now, I’m sure that you’d be delighted at that prospect.

#36 IHCTD9 on 09.24.22 at 2:29 pm

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.22 at 1:07 pm
@#8 Nyquil

Ya might want to save the jokes for a few days.
This is probably going to be the most expensive storm in Canadian History.
I have been texting relatives all across NS and PEI.
The photos are unbelievable.
Hundreds of power poles snapped, thousands of trees down.
Wharves washed out, houses gone.
I’ll be amazed if there isn’t anyone reported killed.
And its still going on.
We haven’t heard the worst of it yet.
———-

There’s some crazy footage on YT. Buildings floating 100’s of feet offshore, and smashed remains of buildings still in their places (sorta). Flooding and insane 160 km/hr winds.

#37 cuke and tomato picker on 09.24.22 at 2:39 pm

Does anybody else feel that Trump is a bad person and
those who follow him follow a system of TOXIC
TRIBELISM. There is one thing to believe a person in politics has poor ideas but Trump is just a bad person.

#38 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.22 at 2:54 pm

@336 IHCTD9
Yeah I got some pics from PEI that were unbelievable.
The storm winds were from the north pushing water onto the North shore
Tidal surge OVER the wharf and the house where they were taking photos was surrounded by boiling, foaming sea water. They were stuck.
Crazy.

#39 PBrasseur on 09.24.22 at 4:34 pm

Pointless exercise IMO, so much has and is happening right now in the world that is different than before that you certainly can’t expect things to unfold “normally”.

Yes we’ve seen inflation and higher rates before, but not in a context where record debt is everywhere. Not in a context in which China’s growth is at the very least compromised as far as the eye can see. Not in the context in which population in developed nations and in China is ageing at rates never seen before.

Welfare states have become everywhere so big, so intrusive, consume so much capital and human resources that too little is left for the wealth creators and growth has become impossible without massive credit and debt stimulus plus QE. Even massive immigration cannot overcome the problem. All unsustainable. Good luck getting out of this…

No this is not your usual recession cycle, something much bigger is at play here. And since it never happened before predicting what happens next is difficult to say the least, chances are pretty good it’s going to be unpleasant though.

#40 The General on 09.24.22 at 4:40 pm

#35- Gravy train: My, aren’t we righteous today.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this:
If we’ve been bamboozled long enough,
we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle.
We’re no longer interested in finding out the Truth.
The bamboozle has captured us.
It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves,
that we’ve been taken.
Once you give a charlatan power over you,
you almost never get it back.

– Carl Sagan

#41 Faron on 09.24.22 at 4:44 pm

#37 cuke and tomato picker on 09.24.22 at 2:39 pm
Does anybody else feel that Trump is a bad person and
those who follow him follow a system of TOXIC
TRIBELISM. There is one thing to believe a person in politics has poor ideas but Trump is just a bad person.

Yep.

We knew Trump was a a person with horrible character back when he was hammering the birther idea in the Obama era. Again when he called mexican immigrants murderers and racists, again when the access Hollywood tape came out, later when he asked his generals why they couldn’t be more like Hitler’s etc.

There has been zero excuse for supporting such a person for more than a decade. None. He’s lived up to the worst case scenarios anyone imagined spawning from him. If the Republicans keep defending him, the US is done as a more or less functional democracy.

Canada’s little PP is adopting similar kinds of governing styles. His Conservative leadership is the first step down an identical road. The media is and will be the first target to fall via defunding the CBC.

#42 The General on 09.24.22 at 4:50 pm

# 11- Nonplussed : Please keep posting, as some here are extremely bamboozled. Either willfully or otherwise.

#43 The General on 09.24.22 at 4:57 pm

All Truth passes through three stages:
1- First it is ridiculed
2-Then it is violently opposed
3- Finally it is accepted as self evident

-Arthur Shopenhauer

#44 The Big EV Lie on 09.24.22 at 5:13 pm

Worth watching:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=sytWLB4-W-M&ab_channel=TheCarGuys.TV

#45 DOWn on 09.24.22 at 5:14 pm

The elephant in the room I think is the impending consequences of the Russian, Ukraine, NATO conflict.

More then once I’ve read and heard people say that even Putin wouldn’t destroy the planet by going thermal.

A limited nuclear strike will not destroy the planet, it could take out the grid or will have other consequences depending on the intent.

And it’s Putin’s only option if he gets out gunned, the equalizer,
A limit nuclear strike is very feasible, Putin won’t back down according to numerous war strategists.

Thats why there’s an exodus out of Russia they know this is no bluff.

#46 Nonplused on 09.24.22 at 5:25 pm

#35 Gravy Train on 09.24.22 at 2:29 pm

“#11 Nonplused on 09.24.22 at 11:41 am
[…] even though the [West] largely drove the creation of the beast.[…]

Do you not consider yourself part of the West? Would you prefer to be a citizen or resident of Moscow? I think Putin would welcome you, comrade, with open arms. And if you play your cards right, you may be conscripted into the Russian army to fight against Ukraine. From what you’ve been writing for months now, I’m sure that you’d be delighted at that prospect.”

So let me see if I get this right: Either I am in favor of the nuclear insanity or I should go fight for Putin in the Ukraine? Either I am in favor the crazy things done by some people in the west to drive the world towards an antihalation much more sudden and irreversible than climate change or I should move to Moscow?

From what I hear, Moscow isn’t all bad, you can even get a hamburger, but I don’t think living there would change my stance on war and especially nuclear war. We might be able to do something about climate change, and what we can’t do about it we can probably adapt to. Humanity will survive. But nuclear war? No. Not even my survival supplies and my Jeep will save me. Nothing is going to save you either.

#47 The General on 09.24.22 at 5:28 pm

Quoting Vladimir Lenin is fun. ;)

“The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency.” So far, so good.

“The establishment of a central bank is 90% of communizing a nation.” Check.

“I don’t care what becomes of Russia. To HELL with it, all this is only the road to a World Revolution.” Interesting.

“One man with a gun can control 100 without one.” Makes sense.

“We are not shooting enough professors.” Harsh.

#48 The General on 09.24.22 at 5:46 pm

Vladimir Lenin was a Prophet. For instance, he said:
“The press should be not only a collective propagandist and a collective agitator, but also a collective organizer of the masses.” Sounds familiar to msm group-speak.

“We can and must write in a language which sows among the masses HATE, REVULSION, and SCORN toward those who disagree with us.” Like convoys and covid?

“The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the milestones of taxation and inflation.” Mission Accomplished!

#49 DON on 09.24.22 at 5:52 pm

#3 the Jaguar on 09.24.22 at 10:31 am
“A lot has changed since then so it’s unlikely we’ll see this expected ‘red wave’.” -RL +++

Hmmm….or it could be the’ Minsky Moment’ political equivalent for the Democrats, given the mid terms are only days after the Federal Reserve meets again with Republican J. Powell sure to raise rates again. Maybe De Santis will load up a few more bus loads of peeps to send off to Martha’s Vineyard, just to put hypocrisy back on full display for those with eyes wide open.

Not sure this chart ( S&P 500 Performance Following US Midterm Elections) can be applied to the present day mess the world finds itself in, post covid, supply chain breakdown, war overseas, and especially the mess south of the border. All due respect Ryan, we’re not in Kansas anymore…….

*******
My gut has the same feeling. Just not feeling the timeline back to Bull, given the present state of things.

#50 B on 09.24.22 at 5:59 pm

Sail Away:

Does Nanaimo stink in the North or just the South? I was getting off the ferry and it stank pretty bad. Is that from the organics recycling facility?

#51 joe on 09.24.22 at 6:08 pm

@ crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.22 at 10:12

I’m thinking there’s a LOT of voters that will punish the Republicans for their anti abortion stance.

***************

There are a LOT of voters who are HAPPY about their anti abortion stance.

Good thing your mother decided to have you.

#52 PeterfromCalgary on 09.24.22 at 6:15 pm

Every inflated food and fuel receipt is evidence that big spending Biden and the so called “Democrats” have failed American families. The “Democrats” deserve to get voted out!

#53 TurnerNation on 09.24.22 at 6:16 pm

This consumer-driven recession will be lasting until 2023-24.
8% mortgage rates would not surprise me.
Posted variable rates are north of 5%, that they were 1.5% not so many months ago will necessitate a long unwind process. Risk off.

— I insisted here that 2020-21 was simply training for us. Compliance and discipline. But for what?
(I mean in 2022 Quebecers were still under house arrest with an evening curfew. For their health!)

Oooh Gartho’s (un)favourite topic, the Globalist Ghouls. Let’s see what they say on this.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/my-carbon-an-approach-for-inclusive-and-sustainable-cities/
‘My Carbon’: An approach for inclusive and sustainable cities
1. COVID-19 was the test of social responsibility – A huge number of unimaginable restrictions for public health were adopted by billions of citizens across the world. There were numerous examples globally of maintaining social distancing, wearing masks, mass vaccinations and acceptance of contact-tracing applications for public health, which demonstrated the core of individual social responsibility.

#54 thomas on 09.24.22 at 6:17 pm

@ #37 cuke and tomato picker on 09.24.22 at 2:39 pm

Does anybody else feel that Trump is a bad person and
those who follow him follow a system of TOXIC
TRIBELISM. There is one thing to believe a person in politics has poor ideas but Trump is just a bad person.

*********

So BIDEN isn’t tribal and divisive? Surely you jest. The most inflationary and divisive president since the 70’s.

#55 DON on 09.24.22 at 6:22 pm

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.24.22 at 1:07 pm
@#8 Nyquil

Ya might want to save the jokes for a few days.
This is probably going to be the most expensive storm in Canadian History.
I have been texting relatives all across NS and PEI.
The photos are unbelievable.
Hundreds of power poles snapped, thousands of trees down.
Wharves washed out, houses gone.
I’ll be amazed if there isn’t anyone reported killed.
And its still going on.
We haven’t heard the worst of it yet.

********
I have a friend in Sydney. I helped her prep her place over the phone going over worst case scenarios, her neighbours roof came off, trees are down etc. Her neighbour is safe though.

#56 Sail Away on 09.24.22 at 6:22 pm

#50 B on 09.24.22 at 5:59 pm
Sail Away:

Does Nanaimo stink in the North or just the South? I was getting off the ferry and it stank pretty bad. Is that from the organics recycling facility?

———-

That’s either the rendering plant or Harmac pulp mill, or both… and the smell of money. Harmac was a major producer of medical-grade mask pulp during the Covid hysteria.

Both are south of town and sometimes waft their aromas throughout the city during low pressure systems/southerly winds. Important services and highly developed technologies.

#57 I'mshort_corpdebt on 09.24.22 at 6:25 pm

#17- And the markets will rise?

That’s the beauty of the markets. You say red, the market will see black, you say down – it will see up. Bad news is good news as good news will be bad for Mr. Market. To the retail investor, everything is confusing but for those that make it all function it couldn’t be more clear. You see, stock markets have NO correlation to the actual workings of the economy. Why do you think it has been going down since early last summer when everyone here was saying how hot the economy was. Nothing to do with that but everything to do with the central banks pumping liquidity into the markets to pump it up another 50-100%. So what’s a measly 30% correction really going to do as opposed to the bag holders who were believers at the 2021 peaks?

#58 Yukon Elvis on 09.24.22 at 6:31 pm

We need to think about what we will do when Putin and his regime are ousted and the Russian Federation starts do disintegrate.

#59 VS on 09.24.22 at 6:33 pm

Ryan; do you think it’s reasonable to compare S&P return based on historical mid term elections? can you suggest if (in any previous years) there was this level of debt (both US and Europe), with raising rates, and FED clearly said there won’t be a pivot this time so it’s a hard landing. However if/when market tank to saying 3,200/3,000, even if they want to save it, what’s the options – print another trillions? is it not what they are trying to extract from the market; so they want to avoid another wave of inflation? thanks

#60 PeterfromCalgary on 09.24.22 at 6:37 pm

#37 cuke and tomato picker on 09.24.22 at 2:39 pm

” Does anybody else feel that Trump is a bad person and those who follow him follow a system of TOXIC
TRIBELISM. There is one thing to believe a person in politics has poor ideas but Trump is just a bad person.”

I couldn’t care less if he is good person or not. During Trump’s tenure the stock market boomed, oil and gas was abundant, and inflation was low.

Biden’s inflation has really hurt American families. Trump was a better President.

FYI: Trump has never been seen wearing blackface like our Prime Minister.

#61 rampant inflation on 09.24.22 at 6:48 pm

“Everyone times the market. Some people buy when they have money, and sell when they need money, while others use methods that are more sophisticated.”
– – Marian McClellan (1934-2003)

#62 Oakville Rocks! on 09.24.22 at 6:49 pm

@#11 NonPlused

“even though the west largely drove the creation of the beast. Most Soviet and Russian nuclear development has been reactionary. The US always invented the technology first, in everything from the first bomb to the first nuclear submarine to the first H-bombs (which are truly terrifying).”

This statement is absolutely false and once again is a foolish, RussiaToday reading of history. The only truth is that the US got there first, multiple times and the soviets had to play catch up. But make no mistake the soviet nuclear program ran concurrent to the US. Both efforts started in response to the fear that Nazi Germany would get an atomic weapon first and had been working on one from the 1930’s.

I do not consider Nazi Germany to be part of the “west” and there are far more similarities between Nazi Germany and Stalin’s soviet union than with the US in the 30’s & 40’s.

#63 DON on 09.24.22 at 6:50 pm

#52 PeterfromCalgary on 09.24.22 at 6:15 pm
Every inflated food and fuel receipt is evidence that big spending Biden and the so called “Democrats” have failed American families. The “Democrats” deserve to get voted out!

******&
Trump wanted the Fed to cut rates. The stock market was his success indicator. Have we forgotten already.

#64 Ryan Lewenza on 09.24.22 at 6:51 pm

VS “Ryan; do you think it’s reasonable to compare S&P return based on historical mid term elections? can you suggest if (in any previous years) there was this level of debt (both US and Europe), with raising rates, and FED clearly said there won’t be a pivot this time so it’s a hard landing.”

Yes I believe it’s reasonable to reference these statistics. We’ve had lots of debt for years so this doesn’t nullify this relationship. I agree the Fed rate hikes are a big risk and could weigh on the markets. These historical numbers don’t ensure the markets rally but strongly suggest they will. And I think we’re in the 7th inning of the rate hikes and see the Fed ending the rate hikes later this year/early next year, which I believe will be another catalyst for the markets. – Ryan L

#65 Doug t on 09.24.22 at 6:52 pm

#37 cuke and tomatoes

Your so cute cuke, naive but cute – the last president that wasn’t “bad” was Carter probs

#66 Wrk.dover on 09.24.22 at 6:59 pm

#60 PeterfromCalgary on 09.24.22 at 6:37 pm
I couldn’t care less if he is good person or not. During Trump’s tenure the stock market boomed, oil and gas was abundant, and inflation was low.
______________________________

First the trillion dollar tax cut for the investor class, specifically, then Appoint J. Powell with a supposed arrangement to not raise interest before the 2020 election, but before the mid terms in 2022.

You’d drink Jim Jones kool-aide right from the jug!

You think another term will make it better yet?

#67 Ryan Lewenza on 09.24.22 at 7:03 pm

PeterfromCalgary “Every inflated food and fuel receipt is evidence that big spending Biden and the so called “Democrats” have failed American families. The “Democrats” deserve to get voted out!”

I’ll remind you that Trump and the Republicans passed two massive Covid relief packages and racked up trillions of dollars of debt while under their control. Democrats don’t have a great track record for spending and deficits but the Republicans have been just as bad. Remember those huge tax cuts that were supposed to ‘pay for themselves’ and lead to surpluses? Ryan L

#68 Sail Away on 09.24.22 at 7:43 pm

Of all the things Trump has done, the best is probably the way he made the lefties completely lose their minds, although, clearly, only a slight nudge that way was needed for many.

Very similar actually to the British housewife absolute apoplexy with Meghan Markle. Nice girl, that Meghan. Oh, and her dude, too. Henry?

#69 Observer on 09.24.22 at 7:47 pm

#42 The General on 09.24.22 at 4:50 pm
# 11- Nonplussed : Please keep posting, as some here are extremely bamboozled. Either willfully or otherwise.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
@Nonplussed. A compliment from “The General” at Garth’s pathetic blog does not look good on you. Just sayin.

#70 Observer on 09.24.22 at 7:49 pm

#40 The General on 09.24.22 at 4:40 pm
#35- Gravy train: My, aren’t we righteous today.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this:
If we’ve been bamboozled long enough,
we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle.
We’re no longer interested in finding out the Truth.
The bamboozle has captured us.
It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves,
that we’ve been taken.
Once you give a charlatan power over you,
you almost never get it back.

– Carl Sagan

^^^^^^^^^^^
Great quote. Problem is that some (like yourself perhaps) won’t recognize the charlatan when they see it.

#71 Quintilian on 09.24.22 at 7:53 pm

#64 Ryan Lewenza on 09.24.22 at 6:51 pm
And I think we’re in the 7th inning of the rate hikes and see the Fed ending the rate hikes later this year/early next year, which I believe will be another catalyst for the markets. – Ryan L

7th inning? I don’t think so.
The FED has to crack some heads first. So far, the only measurable effect has been on the casinos- oops I mean the stock exchanges. The real economy hasn’t budged.

Although real estate in some areas has crashed, but that was in the works already.

Full employment, raging mad inflation, don’t signal deflation.

Inflation, although understated high single digit is going to need more than negative rates to simmer down.

History suggests that even Paul Volcker underestimated the persistence and resilience of inflation.

Have you not seen Terminator, or The Energizer Bunny.

#72 Belch on 09.24.22 at 8:22 pm

#41 FARON
……………….

You must have missed your psychiatric session this week.
It shows!

#73 Wrk.dover on 09.24.22 at 8:49 pm

“Peter” from Calgary, what is synonymous with “Peter”, or any other Trump supporter for that matter anyhow?

Are we all being punked here?

#74 The General on 09.24.22 at 9:08 pm

#69 -observer: See #42. OK, I’ll mark you down as willfully, then?

#75 THE DANDADA on 09.24.22 at 9:12 pm

I read the Title and immediately scrolled down to make this statement.

“I will NEVER make an investment decision based off of the historical record of a political party in or about to take office and their supposed influence on the markets.”

1st Greaterfool article I never read. Sad day.

#76 The General on 09.24.22 at 9:45 pm

#70- observer: Merriam Webster Dictionary says a charlatan is one who makes showy pretences to knowledge or ability.
Synonyms:
•fake
•faker
•fakir
•fraud
•hoax
•humbug
•imposter
•mountbank
•imposter(or impostor)
•phony(or phoney)
•pretender
•ringer
And my favorite, quacksalver. What, you don’t like Lenin quotes?

#77 Don Guillermo on 09.24.22 at 10:08 pm

#41 Faron on 09.24.22 at 4:44 pm

Canada’s little PP is adopting similar kinds of governing styles. His Conservative leadership is the first step down an identical road. The media is and will be the first target to fall via defunding the CBC.
********
Taxpayers hand CBC $1.2 Billion/year. Scaled up that would be similar to the Republicans giving Fox news $12 Billion/year. My quick google search shows Fox budget is $11.2 B. Americans would lose it if that happened and rightly so. There probably was a case for CBC government support in early years but not now. Everyone should be against it. Next time it could be your least favorite getting the billions. It’s very Putinesque and very wrong. #defundCBC.

#78 Diversified in Mississauga on 09.24.22 at 10:28 pm

Ryan,
Let’s hope you’re right on the market turnaround.
Loved the Caddy Shack reference!
Greatest golf movie EVER!

#79 I'm with you brother on 09.24.22 at 11:04 pm

Less hatred, lower gas prices, lower energy prices, less crime, less war, more production, less woke, better markets, less inflation … it all sounds good to me/us. Spot on.

#80 Adam on 09.24.22 at 11:04 pm

“I was recently on BNN (shameless plug here)”

But… I thought we weren’t supposed to watch BNN? I am so confused.

#81 Nonplused on 09.24.22 at 11:08 pm

#62 Oakville Rocks! on 09.24.22 at 6:49 pm
@#11 NonPlused

“even though the west largely drove the creation of the beast. Most Soviet and Russian nuclear development has been reactionary. The US always invented the technology first, in everything from the first bomb to the first nuclear submarine to the first H-bombs (which are truly terrifying).”

This statement is absolutely false and once again is a foolish, RussiaToday reading of history. The only truth is that the US got there first, multiple times and the soviets had to play catch up. But make no mistake the soviet nuclear program ran concurrent to the US. Both efforts started in response to the fear that Nazi Germany would get an atomic weapon first and had been working on one from the 1930’s.

I do not consider Nazi Germany to be part of the “west” and there are far more similarities between Nazi Germany and Stalin’s soviet union than with the US in the 30’s & 40’s.

————————————–

I don’t expect that there are many commenters on this blog who make any effort to remember what I said yesterday, a week ago, or months ago, although every now and then someone says they do, usually to put words in my mouth.

For the record, I think socialism (and communism) are about the worst political systems ever devised by man. Nothing else has resulted in more death and suffering including the nuclear bomb or WWII (at least so far, let’s cross our fingers and pray if you have a God that you pray to).

I also oppose Nazism, (which is a form of socialism, it’s right in the name,) wherever it is found, including Ukraine. Just because they are “our Nazis” doesn’t make them “good Nazis”.

Germany had scientists, sure, but there is scant evidence they were getting anywhere with the nuclear bomb. That story probably ranks up there with the Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. At no point did they have the resources that the US threw at the Manhattan project. Maybe if they won WWII they might have, but that’s not what happened.

The debate still rages as to whether Hiroshima and Nagasaki were necessary, or just a display of force. I don’t know the answer to that. Some people argue that it save many American soldiers from dying in battle. Others say Japan was already defeated and looking for a graceful way to surrender. Maybe the answer to that question is important, I don’t know. But what we can all agree on is that the US dropped the bomb. Twice. On two different days. Without warning the first time.

So ya, if I were the Soviet Union, I’d figure maybe I better look in to getting me one of those things too. By any means necessary. China made a similar decision as soon as they could. Russia more or less inherited the bomb, but I think it safe to say they would have developed it regardless after watching the mushroom clouds over Japan. Britain and France also decided they would be neat to have. Now Pakistan and India have them, which is probably the most worrying. Of course North Korea has made a few bangs but questions remain as to whether they have an effective weapon. Oh and Israel remains the subject of much speculation. The US is the only country that stores nuclear bombs in other countries and has them in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Turkey. Possibly also in Asia. They are popping up everywhere. A classic case of the cat out of the bag.

I suppose the question remains is whether all these players were compelled to develop the bomb once it was known that it could be done. For instance, if the US did not develop the bomb, would the the Soviet Union have made one anyway, perhaps just not in as much haste? I guess we’ll never know for sure, because that’s not what happened.

Maybe the bomb is another cruel catch-22 set upon us by the creator, sort of like the apple in the garden of Eden. You are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Maybe it is just another test of our intellect with eternal damnation on one side, and also eternal damnation on the other. Maybe it was yet another tree of knowledge planted here in the garden for us, the existence of which made avoiding the consequences of such impossible. Maybe that is the whole point of the story of Adam and Eve in the first place: We are going to learn things we aren’t yet capable of knowing (by that I mean handling). And because of that, we will die.

Either way we are where we are. Many in the west and indeed in these comments are cheering for the demise of Russia. Assuming that the Russians don’t go down shooting, in which case we are all dead, what happens to their very large stockpile of nuclear weapons? It would only take a few falling in the wrong hands to create a very bad situation. Imagine if Bin Laden had one of those? New York would be gone, not just a couple of buildings.

I’m not sure what the solution is. But I’m pretty sure supplying unlimited weapons to a NATO proxy at war with Russia isn’t it. Maybe Russia can just have the Donbass and Crimea, for all I care. They all speak Russian anyway.

That’s long enough, so I won’t comment further on this winter, other than to say probably nothing has ever been more dangerous. This tops the Cuban missile crisis by an order of magnitude. Mostly because coming into play is cold and hunger across most of Europe. People could get antsy. Look at what we’ve already seen. And it’s not winter yet.

#82 Nonplused on 09.24.22 at 11:13 pm

#69 Observer on 09.24.22 at 7:47 pm
#42 The General on 09.24.22 at 4:50 pm
# 11- Nonplussed : Please keep posting, as some here are extremely bamboozled. Either willfully or otherwise.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
@Nonplussed. A compliment from “The General” at Garth’s pathetic blog does not look good on you. Just sayin.

————————————

Meh. Insults, even clever ones, look worst on those who level them.

#83 Faron on 09.24.22 at 11:50 pm

#77 Don Guillermo on 09.24.22 at 10:08 pm

Why would broadcasting scale on a per-capita basis? I could see by land area. Does the density of all those conservative American skulls inhibit radio wave propagation there?

You are, sadly, skewed far enough right to think that neutral subject matter is left. That’s it. That’s all there is. The Rupert Murdoch news empire had that as it’s one goal and it succeeded.

#84 DJT on 09.25.22 at 1:01 am

The world is swinging back to the Right, starting with Italy followed by USA then Canada.

#85 Diamond Dog on 09.25.22 at 1:17 am

Bear markets aren’t without their rallies. If we see a decent rally by New Year, it’s on the bounce of markets testing new lows over the next couple weeks…. I think. :)

I will caution for longer’s though just like Powell did. We’ve got some pain ahead at least, in U.S. markets. Maple markets will be more resilient (about the only good thing about the war in Ukraine for Canada is tight commodity supply overall) but U.S. markets will see a deep recession lasting at least 3 quarters. October to December ’23 is a question mark answered by the Fed rate, but it’s looking like recession through most if not all of 2023 for the U.S. (somewhere in that mess is some good bottom fishing though).

The S/P is at 28x multiples now, indicating indexes are still historically high and highly vulnerable to poor earnings. So, the Fed rate at 4% and/or higher if the economy can take it, is a big deal. The Fed is heading us towards decreasing the money supply (i.e. recession), about the only way there is to take inflation down for the Fed. It won’t be pretty and last longer than most think, but we should start to climb out of it somewhere in late fall of 2023.

#86 Steven Rowlandson on 09.25.22 at 7:34 am

RE#47- Another of Lenin’s quotes which is foolishly attributed to Goebbels is the following. “If you tell a lie often enough it becomes the truth.” Dr. Goebbels was merely warning the public about communist tactics so that they would avoid being sucked in by such leftist nonsense.

#87 Zoomish on 09.25.22 at 7:35 am

Reports of a coup in China. Could be interesting.

#88 Gravy Train on 09.25.22 at 7:47 am

#81 Nonplused on 09.24.22 at 11:08 pm
[…] Many in the west and indeed in these comments are cheering for the demise of Russia.

Nobody is “cheering for the demise of Russia.” Quite the opposite. We’re hoping for the removal of Putin.

You never did answer Garth’s question he put to you the other day. Will you answer it today?

Here it is again in case you forgot it: You (pro-Kremlin, for some unknown reason) said the objective of those nations assisting Ukraine to survive is “the total elimination of Russia as a military threat and independent economic entity.” Please source that. News to me. (And Rumble, Telegram or Truth Social don’t count.)- Garth

Same question to ‘The General’. What are your news sources?

#89 Ryan Lewenza on 09.25.22 at 8:35 am

Adam “But… I thought we weren’t supposed to watch BNN? I am so confused.”

Only when I’m on there. – Ryan L

#90 Ryan Lewenza on 09.25.22 at 8:38 am

Diversified in Mississauga “Let’s hope you’re right on the market turnaround. Loved the Caddy Shack reference!
Greatest golf movie EVER!”

I was wondering if anyone would catch that. Agreed, best golf film ever, followed by Tin Cup. – Ryan L

#91 Phylis on 09.25.22 at 9:24 am

The cbc should be defunded. I’m tired of them telling me about mental health. Give the money to people who can address the problem instead of those who can only talk about it.

#92 Faron on 09.25.22 at 9:25 am

#77 Don Guillermo on 09.24.22 at 10:08 pm

I also would like you to ask yourself how you think a 100% private media landscape is going to also be unbiased. Why not reform the CBC to ensure it’s completely independent of the government in power? Remove the purely entertainment components? Hockey?

If you want an example of a screwed up media, look to the US and Sinclair Broadcasting. Sinclair is a far right media company who forces broadcast of specific political content. It’s aess.

#93 Oakville Rocks! on 09.25.22 at 9:28 am

#81 NonPlused

First – I am not cheering the demise of Russia but I have no doubt as to why this war started and who started it.

Putin is pretty much isolated by his own actions.

Second – you need to read more and different sources than you are reading now.

German scientists discovered nuclear fission and almost immediately an effort was made to turn it into a weapon. It was not possible for anyone to know how far Germany had gotten. The US, Britain and the soviets immediately started research into a nuclear fission weapon. Are you forgetting who developed the first rockets capable of carrying bombs?

The success of the US only served to intensify the soviet’s effort. Those efforts were already under way but like many things in the soviet system, they were inferior to the US.

The Soviet H-bomb was designed by Andrei Sakharov and he said that he did so independently of any knowledge of the US effort.

What is sad is how the Soviets/Russians now and then portray their incompetence and the inefficiency of the soviet system or Putin’s kleptocracy as being the victims of “the west”. Maybe Stalin would have had his bomb sooner had he not locked up so many intellectuals, including engineers and physicists.

Equally sad is how you seem to parrot this victimization narrative without question.

As for Hiroshima & Nagasaki, I agree it is a worthwhile debate as to whether those bombs needed to be used on cities killing so many civilians. Oppenheimer thought not and his career was ruined because of it.. but he did not spend time in jail for being a dissident to the government’s narrative.

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.25.22 at 9:51 am

@#87 Zoomish
“a coup in China…”
+++
Source.

All I’m reading is the roundup of “the usual suspects” ( corrupt police chiefs, and cadre leaders) a few “tigers” and “flies”… before the Next 5 year Communist leadership coronation in Oct.

Chairman Xi gets to sit on the throne for an unprecedented third term.
Just like Uncle Mao.
A dictator with a custom fitted suit.

But at least he’s not tossing his enemies out of windows or pushing them down stairs like the thug Tsar Vlad ruling Russia at the moment.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-sentences-former-public-security-vice-minister-death-graft-2022-09-23/

#95 Dharma Bum on 09.25.22 at 11:08 am

Ahhhhhhh….stock market predictions.

“I see a recovery in the markets in 2023 and these statistics are one component of that bullishness.” – Ryan

Seriously?

As John Kenneth Galbraith wisely noted, “There are two kinds of forecasters: Those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”

There is no amount of sophisticated analysis that allays the fact that all informational inputs come from the past in order to make predictions and decisions about the future. It’s all guesswork.

Here’s my (just as foolish or wise) prediction:

The stock market will continue to be an unpredictable rollercoaster with ups and downs, some quicker and steeper and scarier than others, but slowly climbing ever higher and higher far into the future over the long term.

That’s it in a nutshell.

Knowledge is an illusion.

Forecasts create the mirage that the future is knowable.

It’s all noise.

A sucker’s game.

#96 Terry on 09.25.22 at 3:50 pm

“(yes, Trump did lose the US election despite his claims).”

Sorry Ryan……………..on that point you are wrong.

#97 Steven Rowlandson on 09.25.22 at 8:05 pm

Just had a peek at Comox Valley home prices. I must be on the wrong planet. What is it going to take to bring Canadians to their senses? Putin’s nukes burning Canada down to bedrock?