Yuck

Did cheap money spoil us?

That’s rhetorical. Of course it did. Assets values went up as the cost of cash went down. Yesterday we detailed how that impacted residential real estate. The change in valuations in one single 10-year period was epic. Houses became unaffordable, even with crazy-low loans. Now that interest is normalizing, it’s a deeper crisis.

Cheap money also messed with our heads. Now people truly, deeply believe real estate should go up every year. And their incomes. Plus their TFSAs. This inflationary psychology turned into the real thing, sweeping the price of bananas, life insurance premiums, building materials, puppies and iPhones along with it.

Concurrently, we’re becoming a paunchy, egocentric society with the largest cohort telling is they care more about experiences than accomplishments. As this paleo blog has moaned, it’s WFH, quiet quitting, FIRE and the great resignation which have helped create to record job openings, distraught employers, workplace wastelands and the feeling so many people have that the world owes them a living. After all, didn’t your house make more money than you last year? And if you don’t own property, why work? Because you never will.

Oy. It’s a mess. And now we have this – an abrupt, shocking, aggressive pivot in monetary policy. Rates are going up fast. More to come, And they will stay high in order to crush inflation. On average, it’s taken 10 years for economies to accomplish what the Bank of Canada and the Fed have vowed to do. Will this then be a lost decade?

Click to enlarge. Source: Bank of America; IMF

So everything is being whacked now. Gold. Oil. Equities. Houses. Bonds. Crypto. NFTs. The loonie. Europe. And the old guy across the street on a fixed income.

Friday was ugly.

The S&P 500 has dribbled back down to its June low, erasing the saucy little rally we saw late summer when lots of people thought central banks would cave. They didn’t. Rates are surging higher and risk is off the table. We’re back in the bear.

On Bay Street that $120 barrel of oil is now worth $78. Gold – once touted as an inflation hedge – has faded from two grand an ounce to $1,600. Commodity prices across the board are lower on expectations that the global economy will stall out or retrench as CBs turn the screws and Putin has a loose one. As a result, our market – heavy in commodities and financials – is also laying an egg.

In summery, everything sucks. The good news: it’s temporary, not permanent.

Central bankers know the pain they’re causing, and will eventually pause the rate hikes. Look for that to occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023. Markets will love it. Additionally, if recession causes inflation to start tanking, more love from equities – which will then look forward to recovery and growth. Meanwhile Russia is losing the war in Ukraine and even a few hundred thousand more kids in uniforms won’t likely change that. At some point next year this conflict will wind down. Markets will surge.

In fact, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict nearly 26% returns for the S&P 500 benchmark index over the next 12 months.

What to do?

The best answer is nothing. Never sell into a storm. Do not turn paper losses into real ones unless you actually need the money right now or in the next few weeks or months. Don’t get emotional. Stop looking at your investment accounts every day, week or even month. Never, ever watch BNN. Wean yourself off the comment section. Ignore the professional market bears trying to scare you into subscribing to their newsletter or buying their latest terrifying book.

Instead, keep investing. When you have the money, buy an excellent but battered asset with it. Fill your TFSA and your RRSP, collect the free government money on your kid’s RESP, jump on the new FHSA when it arrives, put that spousal loan into operation and abandon your high-fee mutual funds for superior ETFs.

Remember the rule: buy low, sell high. This is low. Like Fiona, it shall pass.

About the picture: “Bella loves biking and the outdoors,” writes Andy. “She is interested in chasing squirrels over interest rates. She is enthusiastic about investing….her time in going for a run. Thank you for the blog day in and day out.”

139 comments ↓

#1 NJ on 09.23.22 at 2:57 pm

“Central bankers know the pain they’re causing, and will eventually pause the rate hikes. Look for that to occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023. Markets will love it”

I’m not a economics pro (still learning). Can someone explain the relation between rate hikes and the stock market?

#2 Linda on 09.23.22 at 2:58 pm

So what do we call today? Sad Friday? It isn’t black but sure does reflect stormy financial weather. Which may last for a while, but as Garth so wisely points out, shall pass. Hopefully without leaving too much destruction in its wake.

#3 A01 on 09.23.22 at 2:58 pm

Sage advice Garth

#4 LG on 09.23.22 at 2:58 pm

“… they care more about experiences than accomplishments.”

Now they can experience a recession.

Life teaches what parents and teachers don’t.

#5 DUSTIN JOHN NADLER-BEHNKA on 09.23.22 at 3:03 pm

Thanks for the Wisdom Garth, I’m 36 years old and I’ve invested through 2008, 2014, 2018, 2020, and 2022, which is the worst I’ve ever seen. Maybe it’s because I have more to lose now. What an absolutely dismal year in general.

#6 Pequeno Pollo on 09.23.22 at 3:06 pm

Did someone say the sky is falling?

#7 Linda Caruso-Papa on 09.23.22 at 3:06 pm

Great Blog Garth !
Thank you for all your Wisdom

#8 Nonplused on 09.23.22 at 3:07 pm

I have a new theory of politics that I think explains why no matter who we elect, they are worse than the last crew:

Right leaning politicians err to the right, left leaning politicians err to the left, and centrists err at right angles to reality. Thus, the observation that no matter who they are or what they stand for, everything they do is an error, remains true. Our only hope for survival is that most of the errors cancel each other out over time.

#9 cuke and tomato picker on 09.23.22 at 3:08 pm

How high will GICS go?

#10 Grumpy Panda on 09.23.22 at 3:09 pm

The girlfriend’s shampoo costs $8. The dog’s shampoo costs $19. Why is this a problem?

#11 jess on 09.23.22 at 3:15 pm

A judge has ordered that a group with ties to the Freedom Convoy can be evicted from an Ottawa church.

The United People of Canada from the property.
https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/judge-orders-eviction-of-freedom-convoy-affiliated-group-from-ottawa-church-1.6081522

#12 Leichendiener on 09.23.22 at 3:22 pm

“The best answer is nothing. Never sell into a storm. Do not turn paper losses into real ones unless you actually need the money right now or in the next few weeks or months. Don’t get emotional. Stop looking at your investment accounts every day, week or even month. Never, ever watch BNN. Wean yourself off the comment section. Ignore the professional market bears trying to scare you into subscribing to their newsletter or buying their latest terrifying book.” Sage advice.

#13 Nope, still not on 09.23.22 at 3:23 pm

We are still waiting on the “market” to make its offer. I’m still with Kevin O. This is going down until a Nortel, Pets.com, Bre-X or Lehman is offered up.

I personally believe the offering will be the culmination of all things bad over the last 5 decades – the unholy grail so to speak – that will expose the oversized fraudulent government for what it has become. We are more awake than ever.

Job losses, crashing home prices, no retirement savings, inflation are going to hurt super bad super soon.

We must all be productive always.

#14 Mr Fox on 09.23.22 at 3:30 pm

Never sell into a storm Yep, totally agree.
Historically when rates were going up the market was gaining 5% on average.
The first lesson I learned for a lifetime though is It’s better to be safe in cash than be invested when the rates are about to rise. Not losing 20% is better than 5% of potential gains
The second lesson is: Bond prices always go down when rates go up. There’s no sense to keep bonds when the rates are increasing.

Suddenly Rosenberg with his prediction of S&P 500 to 3300 doesn’t look that bad anymore…

#15 Mr Happy on 09.23.22 at 3:32 pm

Back in 2010 (ish) You said buy bonds. So I dumped 100k into a premium bond fund. It did well.

Today, in my US$ account I bought US$120K in VOO; VOOV; SCHA; VXUS; VRP; HYG! I hope you are right Garth… :)

#16 Nonplused on 09.23.22 at 3:32 pm

Gold is still at $2240 Canadian so what we’re seeing is more US dollar strength than gold weakness.

It seems strange that the two strongest currencies this year, the ruble and the dollar, are owned by the two countries that are most predominately at war with each other (Ukraine is just a proxy army). I wonder what this means? Does it mean that Russia and the US will both “win”, while the rest of the world loses?

I think it’s safe to say Europe has already lost, commodity importers have lost and thus Russia is winning, but the US is also winning financially. The main question that affects us in little old Canada is why we aren’t also winning, since we should be on the right side of the trade for both commodities and finance.
Maybe we will in the long game.

I also don’t see any prospect for the war to end as long as the US and Russia are both winning. Why would it? Neither party has any reason to let up.

I think there was something about this strategy in George Orwell’s “1984”. Funny how that book morphed over the years from a warning to a strategy guide, in more ways than one. “Animal Farm” too. Sure, socialism has been vanquished, so now the “pigs” who are “more equal than others” fly around in their private jets to the climate conferences while suggesting we the “less equals” eat crickets.

#17 Truefacts on 09.23.22 at 3:35 pm

Garth,

You keep lamenting the fact that young people are not interested in working too hard…”As this paleo blog has moaned, it’s WFH, quiet quitting, FIRE…”

But why? Could it be excessive taxation, unaffordable house prices, generous benefits for schooling, etc. If you remove many of the incentives to work, people logically choose not to.

#18 #TrudeauMustGo on 09.23.22 at 3:35 pm

Yet we have a fiscally incompetent government who continues to waste money on inflationary policies. Thanks to Ontario & Quebec who keep voting these reckless over-spenders into power.

#19 Not Crazy on 09.23.22 at 3:40 pm

Today it was announced that OFSI in discussion to drop stress test if housing goes down much further
AND
Overleveraged will be able to re-amortize at renewal.

Pretty clear the powers that be will never let housing normalize.

What’s next?
Gov forces banks to allow mortgage payment holidays again.

#20 Hindsight on 09.23.22 at 3:43 pm

Eyes wide open Garth, eyes wide open

#21 Søren Angst on 09.23.22 at 3:43 pm

Question:

GARTH are you on Bay Street as I type or in Fiona path, being intrepid and all?

#Fiona No. 1 Cdn Twitter trending as of 4 hr ago.

——————-

“Central bankers know the pain they’re causing, and will eventually pause the rate hikes. Look for that to occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023. Markets will love it.”

Not so sure on the pause Garth. US Fed showing median rates:

4.4% by end of 2022
4.6% for 2023
3.9% for 2024
2.9% for 2025

Pause is in 2025, still, I like your Chutzpah.

——————-

“So everything is being whacked now … Europe. ”

Watch it.

In about 50 hours time I will be living in a Neo-Fascist G7 country *. Just a little sensitive about that right now.

Rub.Salt.In.Wound.

* No, not you 🍁 despite #TrudeauMustGo.

#22 unbalanced on 09.23.22 at 3:43 pm

Thanks for the info. I could never wean myself off the comments . Too many nut bars

#23 DON on 09.23.22 at 3:44 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-23/gasoline-prices-in-us-soar-as-supply-cracks-trump-weak-demand?srnd=markets-vp

#24 Mark McNutt on 09.23.22 at 3:45 pm

First!

#25 Concerned Citizen on 09.23.22 at 3:47 pm

The Agenda with Steve Paikin – 22 Sept 2022

Is Canada a Haven for Money Launderers?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6sqfyxPgFo

This should make every Canadian’s blood boil IMO, except perhaps that of the money launderers. And the Globe and Mail columnist is right when she says we don’t have a good understanding of the extent of the problem due to poor/incomplete reporting requirements.

Money laundering using real estate is one of many factors that has made housing out of reach for young and future Canadians. Why – after years of reputable organizations telling us its a serious problem – have we done nothing about it?

#26 Fragrant Cookie on 09.23.22 at 3:51 pm

I plan on doubling down on my B&D portfolio for the next ten years, so I’m more or less unfazed, and dare I say even excited, at the prospect of market turmoil and cheap stocks.

Also, there is no way I have the willpower to wean myself off the steerage section, it is where I find both inspiration and a good laugh.

#27 Caffeine Monkey on 09.23.22 at 3:51 pm

Or, in the case of crypto, buy high and then watch helplessly as the crypto exchange in which you’re hodling all of your tendies disappears into the aether and you realize that it was just one big ponzie scheme.

#28 The General on 09.23.22 at 3:53 pm

And poor Europe is nationalizing its energy companies. While small businesses suffer exorbitant energy costs. While citizens are told to bathe together to do their part. Nothing to see here. It’ll all blow over by 2030.
A shroud of propaganda envelopes the late, great west. Especially ccnbcbcnnpostmediabc belibers.

#29 Robert B on 09.23.22 at 3:54 pm

Its a fine mess that Canada is in.
Weather wise and economically.

To add to the pain , in 2023 there is a planned
Carbon Tax increase
CPP deductions payments increase
UIC deduction payments increase.

Lets hope the current government cancels them in this
difficult time for Canada.

#30 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 3:58 pm

Aye, the B+D gets its regular injection every month. As far as the COL and inflation goes, I still win via dodging/mitigating costs and changing things up. No debt, no mortgage, LCOL area. Right now Ms. IH and I are feeding 2 Universities, but four years from now, that’ll be it. We’ll be the beneficiaries of our full incomes for the first time in 24 years.

I’m glad because our kids will need the backstop. The Canada Ms. IH and I grew up in no longer exists. We’re going to fade into a land mass with no identity, and no culture, that feeds off a conveyor belt of newcomers who drank the immigration consultant / social media cool-aid. They’ll bleed cash while running the hamster wheel for ten years or so, then 40-50% will leave broke, and demoralized. What a shitty way to run a country.

The Canadian dream is dead. Gen-X was the last to enjoy it. OECD says Canada is dead last for GDP growth for the next 40 years. What a freaking disaster. From here on out, it’s going to get uglier every year for a ton of Canucks.

#31 Richard L on 09.23.22 at 3:59 pm

During an extended period of low interest, we should have paid down our existing debt.

What did we do? Borrowed money like drunken sailors.

Behavioral economics.

#32 yorkville renter on 09.23.22 at 3:59 pm

bought myself a small chunk of a stock paying a touch over 6% divvies… so, there’s a little upside in this downside mess

#33 Ole Doberman on 09.23.22 at 4:00 pm

My friend just told me his stock trading buddy is predicting 2008 all over again.

During the 2008-10 credit crisis a balanced portfolio averaged +5% per year. – Garth

#34 Government Shill on 09.23.22 at 4:02 pm

*screech!*

I mean, buy?

#35 Ole Doberman on 09.23.22 at 4:06 pm

What about Putins nuke scare?

#36 Scott in Gibsons on 09.23.22 at 4:07 pm

Referendums are being held the ethnic Russian parts of Ukraine today. If these areas vote to become part of the Russian Federation, Russia will immediately treat those areas a part of Russia and defend them up to and including the use of nuclear weapons. This is likely partially responsible for today’s market sell off. Putin claims that Russia is facing an existential threat and will act accordingly. I see no mention of this on the Greater Fool blog. Only “Putin is crazy”, “Russia is losing”, etc. If you’re not capable of following such a major global development accurately, how are you able to manage risk for clients?

Rational people don’t all sweaty every time Putin threatens to nuke everyone. Mr. Market also does not take it seriously. – Garth

#37 Søren Angst on 09.23.22 at 4:13 pm

#1 NJ

US Fed just revised rate increases higher than June projections.

As rates increase, the cost of money increases.

Thus, future cash flows in todays $ are worth less.

In effect, as earnings go down, stock prices go down.

4.5% US Fed rate already baked into stock prices. The other part of the equation is emotion, fear of a deep recession. Why the swings are so violent at present.

Consensus will arrive soon, but when? Nobody knows.

In the meantime, Garth correct, don’t sell, ride out the storm.

Rate increases slow in 2023 (4.4% by year end to 4.6% in 2023 – a 0.2% increase only) which will make Mr. Market “sort of” happy provided it does not have a bird about anything else emotional in the meantime.

#38 WTF on 09.23.22 at 4:15 pm

#19 “Today it was announced that OFSI in discussion to drop stress test if housing goes down much further”
—————————————————————–
Curious.

Announced by whom?
Link?

#39 yvr_lurker on 09.23.22 at 4:20 pm

In fact, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict nearly 26% returns for the S&P 500 benchmark index over the next 12 months.
——-

This survey is utterly useless and based on exactly what except unbridled optimism and fairy dust. How many such analysts would have predicted in December 2021 that we would be in such a pickle at this stage with surging inflation, equity markets and housing way down, and interest rate hikes whose rapid rise over such a short time period is unprecedented. We are no where out of the woods yet, and a recession will be in clear evidence in a few months (the depths of which are unknown yet).

Am happy to have put the 100K unexpected funds into my 4+% one year GIC that will mature in June. Then, we will see where we are at that stage. I recall that the BMO dude predicted a 22K+ TSX by Christmas. Let’s not forget his words.

It will eventually get better, but I expect there are more loses in the next fragile 6–12 months.

#40 Søren Angst on 09.23.22 at 4:20 pm

#1 NJ

I said “sort of happy” as rates still high during 2023 but at least projected increases are only +0.2% for the year.

Now the “emotion” part and Mr. Market having a future bird (s) will be if inflation fires up again.

I think it will after the US Midterm elections with gas prices, transportation going up in price.

Fuels (pardon the pun) inflation.

Then the Sept Projections will be revised higher in the Nov or Dec US Fed mtgs.

Queue Mr. Market having a major bird(s) then.

#41 Crystal ball futurist on 09.23.22 at 4:26 pm

“Remember the rule: buy low, sell high. This is low. Like Fiona, it shall pass.”

Appreciate the clarity of the message. Thanks.

How can this play out per my crystal ball:
Short term:
We will see one more down leg before mid Oct.
The next Fed move up will have a data driven msg.
The markets will consolidate by end of Nov.
The next leg up will start mid Dec.

Long term:
When will this be over?
I think, when the Debt/GDP becomes reasonable (Debts can be serviced). As mentioned here, it takes 10yrs (lost decade)

#42 What to do on 09.23.22 at 4:28 pm

“…
In summery, everything sucks. The good news: it’s temporary, not permanent….

What to do?
The best answer is nothing. Never sell into a storm….” – GT

I do agree 100% with both statements, most important part is “Never ever sell to a storm… Do nothing …”

, but I will repeat the question in between out loud for another case ;

if one is out at the very peak of its B&D portfolio less than a year ago! then ‘What to do?’

#43 Annie Wilkes on 09.23.22 at 4:31 pm

If you are like me and regularly set aside 15% of your pay for investing then today was a good day!

BTW, Mr. Turner, I am your No.1 fan!

#44 Faron on 09.23.22 at 4:42 pm

#30 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 3:58 pm

no identity, and no culture,

Curious where you get this idea that Canadian culture is dwindling? Is it a dog-whistle? Do I need to be a red-blooded, old stock Canadian to understand you?

IMO: when you add people from diverse cultures who bring their cultural practices to Canada it enriches the country culturally across the board: religion, social norms, music, food, dance, language etc. Given that we have fairly strong immigration and that more is needed to help crush inflation, I would expect culture to get more and more rich in Canada.

#45 Victor Llearna on 09.23.22 at 4:42 pm

Looks like everything just loses, its like being on the titanic, no where to hide, you are just going down “So everything is being whacked now. Gold. Oil. Equities. Houses. Bonds. Crypto. NFTs. ” can add cash to that because inflation devalues it by 8-10%
Stocks may go sideways for next decade.

#46 omasare on 09.23.22 at 4:49 pm

How about we reduce income tax get rid of useless rules and flush socialism as Liz Truss is doing?

You know try something different than lib/NDP?

How about having some Tylenol for the kids instead of singing (badly) before a royal funeral?

How about not pontificating about carbon before jetting off to Costa Rica?

How about smelling the roses and see the number of people having to use overstretched food banks?

Canada is going down the drain at high speed and most immigrants have far better options nowadays, I for one would never have moved here, if I wanted France I could have moved there….

#47 Soviet Capitalist on 09.23.22 at 4:51 pm

DRV and SRS did well today.

#48 Hurtin' Albertan on 09.23.22 at 4:53 pm

Yuck is right. Need to spend more of my time enjoying the things in life that cannot be bought or sold, things that I already have, those around me, and worrying less about things that I cannot change.

#49 Penny Henny on 09.23.22 at 4:54 pm

Boy oh boy did I get whacked today. Doesn’t matter much cause I’m living off the dividends so there is no need to sell anything to live off of.
Still up about 2% for the year, for now.

#50 Faron on 09.23.22 at 4:57 pm

#135 Bo Jangles on 09.23.22 at 12:24 pm
Faron #117

More people died from extreme weather a hundred years ago in climate related occurrences. More extreme hurricane were recorded in the 1949 through ’60 ‘ s than in the past ten years.

Pretty sure you are desperately wrong, but send me the data and then we can see. If you aren’t wrong it’s because of poor infra in the pass

A recent massive south Pacific volcano called ” the hunga” occured last year and it shot up billions of gallons of water into the atmosphere and climate freaks named a new species of climate change aka, atmospheric rivers. The moisture will stay in the atmosphere until it drops. It’s not climate change, it climate hysteria.

No buddy, just, no.

1) Eruptions don’t work that way. The sun evaporates orders of magnitude more water into the atmosphere each day.
2) Hungatonga was a Southern Hemisphere phenomenon. Interhemispheric moisture transport only happens in a few places along the equator.
3) Any moisture from the volcano would have headed south.
4) Even if all that wasn’t true, Hungatonga was a month after the devastating BC atmospheric river. JFC.
5) The phrase Atmospheric River has been around for more than 3 decades.

Keep your lane of expertise. If you want to speculate or express opinion that’s fine, just make it clear you are a clueless punter.

#51 Penny Henny on 09.23.22 at 5:03 pm

#24 Mark McNutt on 09.23.22 at 3:45 pm
First!

//////////////

Mark that was the worst ‘First’ ever. #24, so sad.

#52 Summertime on 09.23.22 at 5:04 pm

Battered assets?

I would like to be enlightened on what that would be at close to peak bubble (due to decade and a half of ultra easy money) valuations in everything and very significant inflation contribution to the fun.

Upside of something could be only due to continuing strongly negative real interest rates and inflation that contradicts the idea of tightening.

What has upside in short to mid term? Stocks?
With inflation that kills real consumption?

Houses? I don’t think so.

Bonds? With strongly negative real rates?

Banks in an ultra financialized world?
What, they will become 200 % of the economy?

—————————–

#28 The General on 09.23.22 at 3:53 pm

Europe is poor and you are ultra reach, with you ‘house wealth’.

OECD says Canada is dead last for GDP growth for the next 40 years.

Hey, but first in ganja growth! /After California.

#53 Faron on 09.23.22 at 5:04 pm

#30 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 3:58 pm

The Canadian dream is dead

That’s weird, I just met a Ukrainian immigrant with an internationally recognized unlimited master ticket (i.e. could have moved almost anywhere globally) who seemed very glad for the safe refuge he and his family have found here… Not very unlike my family who fled war torn Europe for Canada in the 1950s — a time when the tax rates were far more progressive and life wasn’t any easier than today and the inflation/recessions of the 60s – 80s were on the horizon.

let up on the crybaby hyperbole.

#54 NOSTRADAMUS on 09.23.22 at 5:14 pm

SOFT LANDING, DEAD AHEAD!
Could these possibly be the biggest lies of all time???
(1)”We don’t fully understand what’s causing inflation”
J. Powell. Federal Reserve Chairman.
Close secondary Pinocchio’s for the ages.
(2) Contained.
(3) Orderly decline.
(4) Transitory.
(5) Permanent Plateau.
(6) Here to help.
AND MY PERSONAL FAVORITE,
(7) We are heading for a Soft Landing.
I take the liberty of adding to this statement, With wheels up or down. It all depends on one’s definition of a soft landing. Finally the voice of reason.

#55 I have 3 kids on 09.23.22 at 5:19 pm

NJ on 09.23.22 at 2:57 pm
“Central bankers know the pain they’re causing, and will eventually pause the rate hikes. Look for that to occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023. Markets will love it”

I’m not a economics pro (still learning). Can someone explain the relation between rate hikes and the stock market?


Investors leave equities as rates rise so they can safer returns when things are volatile in government backed securities and the like.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/1999ar/FortuneMagazine.pdf

#56 The General on 09.23.22 at 5:20 pm

#22 unbalanced? Meet #24 : Mark McNutt.

#57 Elon Fanboy on 09.23.22 at 5:39 pm

Gas has suddenly shot up 20c in my local hood of Nanaimo.

What’s going on there?

#58 rainebow on 09.23.22 at 5:45 pm

look at gold in various currencies and it is still close to all time highs, down in us dollars but close to all time highs in sterling for an example.

Stirling has collapsed. Gold is a bad place to put money. Period. – Garth

#59 Guy in Calgary on 09.23.22 at 5:45 pm

As a millennial in my mid 30’s, my weekly contributions continue. Happy to pick up my holdings at a lower price. Milly by 40.

#60 Shirl Clarts on 09.23.22 at 5:46 pm

No replies from Garth in the comments, not even for #14 Mr Fox. He and the Mrs. must be busy battening down the hatches. Be safe, Garth and Dorothy.

Mr. Fox is a wuss, and I am in TO. – Garth

#61 Deep Thoughts on 09.23.22 at 5:47 pm

#26 Mr Fox on 09.22.22 at 4:34 pm

Conclusion: everybody wants a piece of RE. Everybody understands that this will be a once in 30 years opportunity. So i think once the rates stop going up, prices will stop dropping as well.

=======

Average age of Canadian is 42 years old Mr. Fox. There are a lot of seniors, who, well, in the words of Queen, don’t want to live forever. Demographics is going to free up a lot of housing units in the near future.

=======

#68 jack on 09.22.22 at 6:58 pm

Biggest issue for the housing market right now is the cost to build. I built a 3200 square foot custom bungalow on an acre two years ago – total cost, me being the contractor was 1.3M (300k for the land). If I were to build today it would cost another 300k. Same must hold true for suburban detacheds… the cost to build is the cost to build. Labour is sky high as well of you can find it. I guess new home builders will just stop building … but with the population ever increasing the demand will far exceed the supply and house prices will go up – or at least not drop as much as you think.

=======

jack, it is amazing how quickly prices go down as…well, you know…demand goes down.

In no time, building costs of a house drop to $400k as “efficiencies” are found.

#62 Felix on 09.23.22 at 5:55 pm

“Instead, keep investing.”

Especially in cats.

Happy Feline Friday!

Did you know:

It cost less to keep cats than it does to keep dogs. Averaging $320 a month for dogs, while a mere $120 for cats.

(Put the savings in a B&D portfolio with Garth, and enjoy an early retirement!)

#63 DON on 09.23.22 at 5:56 pm

#57 Elon Fanboy on 09.23.22 at 5:39 pm
Gas has suddenly shot up 20c in my local hood of Nanaimo.

What’s going on there?

******It’s hunting season…filling up all the hunting vehicles?

#64 Penny Henny on 09.23.22 at 5:57 pm

Rational people don’t all sweaty every time Putin threatens to nuke everyone. Mr. Market also does not take it seriously. – Garth

///////////////

But the trading algos do

Nope. – Garth

#65 mj on 09.23.22 at 5:59 pm

you mentioned WFH, quiet quitting, fire, and the great resignation. I just heard of some people who WFH have 2 jobs and the other job doesn’t know.

I hope the war ends soon, but Putin is crazy. He won’t be giving up. I hear a lot of media talking about Putin’s war caused the oil prices to spike. I believe it had some effect. However, the price of oil started to go higher before the war. When Biden canceled the pipeline. if Canada and the states open the pipeline and pump out oil, I’m sure that will help the price, and help inflation.

#66 the Jaguar on 09.23.22 at 6:07 pm

@#16 Nonplused on 09.23.22 at 3:32 pm, re the USD strength……………++++

……..Lord knows I should stay in my ‘how to make good Bolognese sauce’ lane, but what I have hoovered about the current strength of the USD is that it is related to a ‘shortage’. Yeah, a US dollar shortage. Because the derivatives markets must be supported, and currently the only interest is in shorter term, higher quality collateral such as treasury bills which are dollar denominated assets. And also that the strong US dollar shouldn’t be equated to a strong US economy given the extremely high debt to GDP, which means the economy can’t grow in the US. Also employment numbers are always suspect because they don’t take into account employable peeps aged 20-55 who are simply not looking for work, so not registering on the unemployed radar screen.

Then there is that troublesome inverted yield curve which could signal a hard landing, as the Fed will need to ‘pivot’ rather strongly once the wheels come off and it’s forced to gaze into the abyss.

What I know is that all of this is out of my scope of control, so I try to enjoy life’s little pleasures ( like small food processors who make Bolognese sauce a breeze) and be grateful for everything and everyone responsible for the position of privilege I occupy on the planet. Maybe one day I will be able to welcome a dog or cat into my life. That’s my big ask. Amen.

#67 Bill zufelt on 09.23.22 at 6:12 pm

Bought a US index fund in September 1987(just before the crash) and sold it in August this year made over 21 times on it.Sitting in mostly cash account 3% and 2 and 3 year GIC’s getting 4.75%.At 62 made enough and don’t see much upside over next 10 years(certainly not worth the risk of maybe getting a point or 2 on a GIC)If it drops further I’ll buy but if not I’m fine sleeping at night.If it comes roaring back I’ll sell the little left in the TFSA.Did okay over the 35 years but looking at the TSX since 2000 and it has done squat(about 2-2.5% per year)Brokers/Sales people have made all the money.

#68 the Jaguar on 09.23.22 at 6:14 pm

Oh…and I forgot. The reason for the interest in shorter term dollar denominated assets relates to a lack of confidence in the future given examples of shaky long term investment initiatives and stupid moves such as trying to kill the fossil fuel industry.

#69 George on 09.23.22 at 6:17 pm

Nah, this is far from over.

The fed created 80% of all money in existence in the last 2 years. So really, to fight inflation, they are increasing rates on 5x the money supply that existed 2 years ago.

Where is the money gonna come from to pay for all that?

Putin’s ruble is stronger than before and all his oil is still sold because there is still a global shortage – just look at the price, please, it’s not languishing at $40/bbl.

Europe’s industries and small buz are collapsing right now because they can’t pay 2x, 5x, or 10x the power bill. Putins industries are still all firing on the same cost inputs. How is he losing exactly?

Just wait for Putin to cut off all gas supply this winter when a cold snap hits.

#70 chalkie on 09.23.22 at 6:20 pm

This is one of these days that we should have stayed in Bed, not much to jump up and down about, stock markets crashing in a retreat, even Gold ran for the woods today, our market tumble was worldwide, don’t panic, life will resume to normal once we fill the office and your employer hands you your daily duties. Soon to come, far gone when the days of being late for the office will be acceptable to your employer, he/she will say, shape up or ship out. Although it was the US Feds that added a ¾ point to their Central Bank hike on Wednesday, it was the TSX that took the biggest percentage market lose overall today.

October 26th BOC rate hike in Canada will send shock waves through the real estate community and again on Dec 7th rate hike, more so for the Christmas Season.
Putin is causing a headache to the whole world with his ridiculous comments, then countries reacts to his rhetoric.

Retails sales are down 2 1/2 percent, consumers are not spending, but rather hiding their wallets, home renovations are being shelved for later causing the construction materials to set idle again. Gas sales are down a whopping 14% this year, both used and new cars showed a large decline in sales, even food prices showed a slowdown in sales and the likes of COSTCO complaining about low profit margins, not sure how they lose money, their stores are always full of people and even if you only bought one loaf of bread there for the year, it cost you $60 to $120 in member ship fees. COSTCO may be just setting us up again, to sock it to us for higher membership fees. With sky-high inflationary prices showing a gloomy outlook ahead of us for some time yet, its not a good feeling. TD Bank reporting broadly cooled spending across most categories of consumer products.

Mixed messages: Cost of eating out has surged and still rising, Oil has fallen precipitously this year and shipping cost has rolled back to almost pre-pandemic levels and key grains and corn have fallen as well. Ending August 2022, food prices had risen 9.8% overall.

Food prices and interest payments can be detrimental and insidious for the majority of families who has not seen these sorts of increases in decades come at us so quickly.

Consumers are becoming more frugal as our wealth drops in value.

Business Analysis reported that inflation is finally cooling due to the cooling economy, there is plenty of head-winds in front of us yet to turn the tide, but the tide is turning. Statistics Canada reporting that the annual rate of inflation has come in at 7%, not sure how they feel good over that, but there appears to be some sort of relief sentiment in the air, keep in mind their target was 2%, now revised to 3%.
There is lot of pain in front of us yet, unless there is a genie in the Ottawa.

As we get closer to cooling off inflation, this does not mean we get back to where consumer prices where before, inflation does not work that way, it would be more of a fair statement to say, it should stop inflation from growing quickly and bring it back around to a 2 or 3% annual growth level again. The last thing we need to see is that prices roll back to quickly, it would cause deflationary environment and this would put our economy into a tail spin and cause havoc with a major loss of jobs, goods stop selling with a negative so big that it would almost bring our economy to a halt.

Take a look at the FEDEX stock, it’s now falling back toward its March 2020 lows, this is a clue to where the markets are headed, caused by lack of sales from the consumers. I see a non-stoppable recession ahead of us, the winds are strong, but it’s useless to us, because we don’t have a sail on our boat.

Home sales has fallen off the hill and appears headed for the cliff, but apartment rentals are way up in demand.

It’s not uncommon for people to get upset when an offer is shot down, but you can’t throw a hissy fit and walk away. If the seller rejects and gives you a counteroffer, consider this a perfect opportunity to negotiate, but don’t get taken. If the seller rejects your offer outright, you can put that house on the back burner and see if it’s still on the market in a couple of months, chances are in this market, it will be and as time goes on, more so. If it is still available, the seller may be willing to accept your offer, or it could now be lower, or at least be open to serious negotiating, factoring in the trend of the current market. With the real estate market in this condition (a buyers’ market) don’t overpay, your deal is around the corner, listen to your heart, not your realtor.

There are many 2021 buyers who will be 8 to 10 years out, before they break even, our real estate market will go sideways for quite a few years ahead of us, once it finds its lows.

FOMO caused a lot of anxiety in 2021, enough that the home buyers’ pain will be inflected for years to come, the luckiest people who were going to buy, “but never” they are still counting the green backs from their bank accounts. For the millennials and Generation Z’s, they have learned a hard lesson, it’s the first time that they would have been old enough to remember this downturn but unfortunate enough to get caught up into it financially.

Your quote for today:” Money has never made man happy, nor will it, there is nothing in its nature to produce happiness. The more of it one has the more one wants.”

#71 Phylis on 09.23.22 at 6:23 pm

I love a good sale.

#72 Quintilian on 09.23.22 at 6:26 pm

“Central bankers know the pain they’re causing, and will eventually pause the rate hikes. Look for that to occur in Q1 or Q2 of 2023.”

Wishful thinking; at full employment, and core inflation running hot, it will take more than a quarter or two to break this fever.

Do you know what ‘pause’ means? – Garth

#73 tkid on 09.23.22 at 6:31 pm

I’m hoping for a chance to buy bank stocks with a divvy of 8% or more. Currently it’s only 5.5%

#74 Love_The_Cottage on 09.23.22 at 6:36 pm

Lots of hatred of Canada. Feel free to leave. I love this country and I’m proud of what we stand for.

#75 Agenda 2030 Roswell NWO on 09.23.22 at 6:40 pm

Rate cuts in 2023?

#76 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 6:43 pm

#38 WTF on 09.23.22 at 4:15 pm
#19 “Today it was announced that OFSI in discussion to drop stress test if housing goes down much further”
—————————————————————–
Curious.

Announced by whom?
Link?
————

Yes, I’d like that link too. Last the OFSI said is they’re not dropping it. I’d think *might* modify it if the number got impossible. The OSFI works to protect the banking system, not new homebuyers.

#77 Back to the SIXTIES_Not! on 09.23.22 at 6:50 pm

Stick it to the man! Instead of peace & love its Experiences & WFH.
Anyway, there is no real economy in NA anymore. Nobody has any satisfaction in building, producing things. Paper shufflers, bs office get-nothing-done jobs – That’s what you get when society simply becomes consume crap workers. It’s not healthy and it has destroyed too many core values for a society to move forward and prosper.

#78 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 6:53 pm

#52 Summertime on 09.23.22

OECD says Canada is dead last for GDP growth for the next 40 years.

Hey, but first in ganja growth! /After California.

————

And all those weed corps are going broke. Turns out the street price is less than half the government price. Who would have guessed?

#79 I'm Alright Jack on 09.23.22 at 6:57 pm

Let’s face it. By most measures the stock markets were extremely overvalued, fueled by cheap money – especially in the US (and especially in Technology).

This little bear a needed shake-out to get things a little more balanced and a little less speculative. I welcome it. Good companies will come through the bear with no problems.

I’m not worried, just long. Collecting my divies, which won’t be disappearing any time soon. And like Garth says, not watching my portfolio or BNN.

Maybe I’ll check after Christmas. Then maybe I’ll be buying. No rush.

#80 The General on 09.23.22 at 7:01 pm

# 50- faron: OK, Poindexter. You sure told him, by golly!

#81 The General on 09.23.22 at 7:03 pm

#50- faron: Sooo… there are lanes here? Your lanes?

#82 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 7:13 pm

#74 Love_The_Cottage on 09.23.22 at 6:36 pm

Lots of hatred of Canada. Feel free to leave. I love this country and I’m proud of what we stand for.
———

Lots of folks got great reasons to leave – mostly youth and recent newcomers. They surely will too, if they can. Don’t doubt it for a second.

You think they’re here just because it’s Canada? Bro, the kids and newcomers want a good standard of living just like the OSC’s got. If that ain’t part of the contract anymore, you’re damn right you can watch them leave. We lose 35-40% of our immigrants already, and the shtf hasn’t even happened yet. But it looks like it’s coming.

But I sure ain’t leaving. Since Trudeau was elected, my net worth has skyrocketed, and I don’t think PP will be our next PM. That means my net worth will keep streaking skyward under Trudeau, which is gross, but I can handle it. The Canada I grew up in was great, and I’m speaking as a dude with immigrant parents who also love Canada. Just don’t expect us new folks to turn a blind eye to what’s coming down the pipe. It’s obviously not looking good.

#83 DOWn on 09.23.22 at 7:15 pm

Shorting the S&P seems to be making things less painful, gotta watch it like a hawk.

#84 Mattl on 09.23.22 at 7:16 pm

While I agree this is temporary, I wouldn’t be surprised so see it take 5-10 years to reach the Covid highs. Financial assets were just as dependent on low rates as RE.

Accounting for inflation the SP is already down 30+. Almost at GFC levels and this thing only started in March. The FIRE group should be concerned, that 1MM they retired on is getting crushed by returns and inflation.

For those with long horizons this is a godsend, keep lagging money in each paycheck and wait for the next 15 year bull run, then retire.

#85 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 7:19 pm

@#53 Faron
“That’s weird, I just met a Ukrainian immigrant with an internationally recognized unlimited master ticket (i.e. could have moved almost anywhere globally)”

+++

Does he drive ships?
BC Ferries is crying for experienced people with their ticket.
Not a bad job for a Captain or crew.
They get to go home every night unlike a ship at sea.

#86 Max Tout on 09.23.22 at 7:20 pm

During the 2008-10 credit crisis a balanced portfolio averaged +5% per year. – Garth

Yeah, but rates went to close to zero in this time period, so the fixed income portion appreciated. All assets are taking a whacking this time.

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 7:22 pm

Gas jumped to $2.18.9 for Regular today in the Lower Brain land.

It “dropped” to $2.14.9 by 3pm.

Line ups at the pumps…..?
For $2.14.9?
Then I realized.
Its the Lower brain Land.

#88 RG on 09.23.22 at 7:22 pm

… but looking at the TSX since 2000 and it has done squat(about 2-2.5% per year)Brokers/Sales people have made all the money.

Nonsense. XIU total return since inception (inception Sept. ’99) is 7.29%.

https://www.blackrock.com/ca/investors/en/products/239832/ishares-sptsx-60-index-etf

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 7:26 pm

@#74 Cottage
” I’m proud of what we stand for.”

+++
Our leader is mocked.
Our dollar is dropping.
Our glorious Health Care is on life support.
Criminals are released immediately after being arrested for violent crimes.
Our national debt is over $1 TRILLION dollars.
Interest rate hikes will make the debt repayments unbelievably expensive.
But.
It a wonderful place to be Woke.

#90 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.23.22 at 7:34 pm

#74 Love_The_Cottage on 09.23.22 at 6:36 pm

Just because there are cracks in the drywall, or the sink is leaking, doesn’t mean you abandon the house… You fix or replace the issues and continue on.

These comments that if you criticize the current climate of the country means you should leave, are ridiculous and lazy.
Criticism is good for a functional democracy.

#91 THE DANDADA on 09.23.22 at 7:38 pm

Usually the crack (cheap money) dealers go to jail…..

In this case the lenders own the game and get to experiment at will.

We didn’t create or lend ourselves the cheap money.

#92 Squire on 09.23.22 at 7:38 pm

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 7:26 pm

———————————————————–
Yup ! Great post #89

#93 Dog on 09.23.22 at 7:39 pm

#Grumpy Panda

The dog is worth more than your girlfriend

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 7:45 pm

@#75 Soggy tinfoil diapers
“Rate cuts in 2023?”

+++
Not a chance.
Way too soon.
Interest rate hikes have to CRUSH inflation.
Gotta let those Mils experience a 1980’s style…3-5 year bankruptcy, high unemployment, no hope, Recession.

But look on the bright side.
Tacky hair doos and shoulder pads for women ….will be like Arnold Swartzenegger…….back

#95 Flop… on 09.23.22 at 7:50 pm

Honesty.

The world could do with more of it.

I saw a company today called Lanyard Financial, while I was out and about looking for trouble.

Just brutal honesty at play.

They don’t even try to hide what they are doing.

They hang the debt around your neck, and then choke the crap out of you…

M48BC

#96 Steven Rowlandson on 09.23.22 at 8:01 pm

There is no doubt about it. The real estate market has rendered the value of work worthless and punished having a work ethic.

#97 Doug t on 09.23.22 at 8:08 pm

#74 cottage

Ummmm and what would that be?

#98 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 8:08 pm

#46 omasare on 09.23.22 at 4:49 pm

Canada is going down the drain at high speed and most immigrants have far better options nowadays, I for one would never have moved here, if I wanted France I could have moved there….
———-

Yep, at least for those who come here with a degree and lots of experience. They get to look forward to unrecognized credentials and years of driving a taxi while they upgrade their certifications. Not cheap, or quick. Then when they finally land a decent job, they get taxed half to death. And when they’d like to buy a house, they realize they’ll never be able to afford it. Red tape, taxes, insane housing market, sky-high cost of living, no family doctor, and greatly reduced entitlements due to lack of years working in Canada.

Frankly, things have degenerated into Canada being a complete rip-off for recent white collar immigrants. I work with them 5 days per week, and it’s getting scary common for those who arrived in the last 5 years, and alone – to be working 80-90 hrs per week. They’ll still never own a house here even so.

Today, those who show up with family, and willing to work any job at all, will do the best. Strength in number (of household incomes), and ability to work outside the gta (~min wage is the same everywhere in the province) assures their establishment. They can buy a home, and build wealth, slowly but surely with 4-5 workers in a LCOL area. Forget about it alone in the GTA unless you’ve got local family to backstop you and lots of credentials and luck.

It’s an entirely different experience today compared to what my parents had decades ago.

#99 Steven Rowlandson on 09.23.22 at 8:08 pm

RE#89

It is over 1.2 trillion plus unfunded liabilities Federally.
Add in the Provinces and other governments then we are talking about some very big numbers. There doesn’t seem to be any political will to stop borrowing and pay it down. Perhaps our esteemed leaders figure they can have a debt for equity swap and sell the nation and the people to the bond holders in exchange for retiring the debt… Silly idea and it won’t work well any way.

#100 Dr V on 09.23.22 at 8:13 pm

71 Phylis

“I love a good sale.”
———————————–

Me too. Bought a few things.

#101 Sail Away on 09.23.22 at 8:13 pm

Hah, let it drop, let it drop. Lots of cash on hand, no debt, ‘bargain’ antennae are twitching.

Turmoil seems to occur every year when I go hunting and temporarily remove my calming influence. Just relax. It’ll be ok.

#102 Doug t on 09.23.22 at 8:15 pm

Been in “recycling” for 25 yrs – Christmas retail is going to be a corpse – corrugated occ mills in North America have cut orders by half – can’t move finished product – India has also cut orders in half – 2023 is going to be ROUGH

#103 The General on 09.23.22 at 8:19 pm

# 89- c.e.f is right! BOOM, CRACLE, ZAP, SIZZLE… eerie silence…

#104 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 8:23 pm

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 7:22 pm
Gas jumped to $2.18.9 for Regular today in the Lower Brain land.

It “dropped” to $2.14.9 by 3pm.

Line ups at the pumps…..?
For $2.14.9?
Then I realized.
Its the Lower brain Land.
— ——-

Bonkers. Gas here in the Ontario sticks is 1.30’s. We might still be benefiting from Ford’s gas tax cut (temporary) though. Even so, when the cut came, it seemed like gas only dropped about 5 cents. We wouldn’t be over 1.45 without the cut. Something has gone haywire over there.

#105 David W2 on 09.23.22 at 8:24 pm

Buy low sell high advice is contradictory to staying invested and not trying to time the market. If a person had 1-3% cash and the rest invested, there really isn’t much to deploy. Also tough to rebalance if all asset classes are in the dumpster and TFSA and RRSP room is maxed. Only way to benefit seems to be to raise new cash to invest and average down in a non registered account or with new contribution room in 2023. Am I wrong or should I have cashed out in January/February to buy back in lower?

#106 mnpr on 09.23.22 at 8:28 pm

#50 Faron

C’mon Faron… you have been doing so well the past couple days. Your response to BoJangles is reasoned and appreciated. But why don’t you just stop after your last point? Why throw in the insult at the end? That is what gets peoples backs up.

#107 45north on 09.23.22 at 8:28 pm

Did cheap money spoil us?

That’s rhetorical. Of course it did. Assets values went up as the cost of cash went down. Yesterday we detailed how that impacted residential real estate. The change in valuations in one single 10-year period was epic. Houses became unaffordable, even with crazy-low loans. Now that interest is normalizing, it’s a deeper crisis.

post from a couple of days ago: In Toronto, Altus Group just found that a third of all developers are halting or pausing condo construction projects – eliminating about 10,000 units. This comes after the province of Ontario said 1.5 million new homes are required within ten years – a goal that is instantly unattainable since it would require a doubling of production, not a pause.

in terms of housing affordability, it is a deeper crisis. The price is going down, but the payments are going up. Three things are hitting developers right now: higher building costs, higher interest payments, lower prices on the product they’re producing. I think the Altus Group report understates the fraction of the developers who are halting or pausing projects.

#108 45north on 09.23.22 at 8:30 pm

IHCTD9: The Canada Ms. IH and I grew up in no longer exists.

I’m thinking of you up in Dummer Township. You know Ennismore. My wife’s family built a cottage there 50 years ago. At the time, all the cottages were on the lake. Now, the population is 10 times what it was. At least 10 times. 50 years ago, Ennismore was a farming community, heavily from an Irish background. General Electric was a big employer in Peterborough. I would say that Peterborough was its own city then. I mean people in Peterborough would go to Toronto but mostly they didn’t. I moved to Ottawa 50 years ago. On the way to Ennismore there was a general store P.G. Towns. I heard it burnt down.

We’re going to fade into a land mass with no identity, and no culture,

no you’re not! You’ve got the resources and knowledge to do good. And I mean you personally. You don’t see your life when you’re living. Keep on truckin!

#109 Ed on 09.23.22 at 8:43 pm

I had to check the market…after reading some comments here I though our TSX bombed 20%.
Buncha noobs.

#110 Faron on 09.23.22 at 8:43 pm

#106 mnpr on 09.23.22 at 8:28 pm

1) Bojangles’ entire comment was clueless punting. Calling them a clueless punter is accurate description. There was nothing of merit in his post

2) Having a reply to my comment include “climate freaks” on top of Dharma Bum’s comment got my back up. If mud is thrown my way, I’m more than happy to sling back. Clueless punter was pretty gentle.

#111 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 8:59 pm

I’ve been noticing lately that the trucker convoy seems to have inspired “product”. Seen a truck with a Canadian flag bra, then a back window shade. Today I saw an F250 with twin flags behind the cab flying from hockey sticks – but they were plastic facsimiles of an ice hockey stick. Lots of big Canadian flags on front lawns now too. Often paired with “Every Child Matters” flags, and foreign flags. The good old, time honoured F-Trudeau sticker is becoming ubiquitous. You can’t line up in a Timmie’s drive thru without seeing at least one.

My riding flips Lib/Con on both fronts all the time, so it’s an interesting development. Libs lost our riding both federally and provincially last round. My guess it’s staying that way for a good while yet.

#112 conan on 09.23.22 at 8:59 pm

12 months for S&P 500 to reach 4660 seems optimistic IMHO. I would like to see the rates peak and then the rush to bonds play out completely before jumping on the Holy Grail train of S&P comebacks.

#113 Father's Daughter on 09.23.22 at 9:01 pm

#98 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 8:08 pm
#46 omasare on 09.23.22 at 4:49 pm

Canada is going down the drain at high speed and most immigrants have far better options nowadays, I for one would never have moved here, if I wanted France I could have moved there….
———-

Yep, at least for those who come here with a degree and lots of experience. They get to look forward to unrecognized credentials and years of driving a taxi while they upgrade their certifications. Not cheap, or quick. Then when they finally land a decent job, they get taxed half to death. And when they’d like to buy a house, they realize they’ll never be able to afford it. Red tape, taxes, insane housing market, sky-high cost of living, no family doctor, and greatly reduced entitlements due to lack of years working in Canada.

Frankly, things have degenerated into Canada being a complete rip-off for recent white collar immigrants. I work with them 5 days per week, and it’s getting scary common for those who arrived in the last 5 years, and alone – to be working 80-90 hrs per week. They’ll still never own a house here even so.

Today, those who show up with family, and willing to work any job at all, will do the best. Strength in number (of household incomes), and ability to work outside the gta (~min wage is the same everywhere in the province) assures their establishment. They can buy a home, and build wealth, slowly but surely with 4-5 workers in a LCOL area. Forget about it alone in the GTA unless you’ve got local family to backstop you and lots of credentials and luck.

It’s an entirely different experience today compared to what my parents had decades ago.

—————————————–

Well I’d like to think that with all the money that you’ve amassed due to free handouts and other Liberal policies that you’re lending a hand to these newcomers when and where you can. It’s a good time for anyone with a bit extra to be donating to the food banks right now. Despite our problems, nobody should be going hungry here.

I’m really curious as to where all of the immigrants might otherwise go? There’s usually a reason why they left where they did, and few other countries are letting them in. We still have a very high standard of living here. Those who want to come here and achieve a comfortable middle class lifestyle learn quickly that it will take some time, and work.

Now why immigrants and refugees all flock to Toronto and Vancouver, that’s another story. Bad idea. Especially if you’ll be working minimum wage. Join one forum and it’ll tell you this on repeat. Ukrainians (who unlike some other immigrant groups can probably find more cultural similarities outside of the major hubs) have been warned relentlessly not to pick Toronto, yet they do. It takes about 2 months before a single Mom with kids can’t make their rent, or feed their kids. Forums are flooded with these stories. Strength in numbers and workers helps a lot. Families who are comfortable co-living, unlike many North Americans who fear being in proximity of other people and prefer large dwellings to very few people, do benefit from the multiple incomes, even if lower. Still better not to be in the GTA though. Canada’s a big country.

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 9:16 pm

@#107 45 North
‘ In Toronto, Altus Group just found that a third of all developers are halting or pausing condo construction projects – eliminating about 10,000 units. ”

++++
This is just the beginning.
The smaller developers/speculators are still in denial.

Lets see what March 2023 after the Liberals roll out another “Good Times” multi billion dollar handouts …Budget….
A budget that will do nothing but put taxpayers deeper in National debt payments (taxes) and tank our dollar even further as international markets punish the Wokesters running us into the ground.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 9:29 pm

Hmmm

6pm News in Vancouver.
‘Insolvency Trustee” ads are front and center.

Everyone smiling, happy, and tossing their bills in the air…because….they’re bankrupt.

#116 Steven on 09.23.22 at 9:39 pm

It’s so easy…Just watch the FED.

Fed lowers rates, prints $$$ Markets UP.

Fed raises rates, takes away $$$$ Markets DOWN.

Got it? There is ZERO price discovery as the FED and world bankers have totally ruined it.

Once the bankers and 1% have gotten everything, will us serfs be let off the hook and rates will lower? YES.

So simple even an idiot can understand this.

#117 Overheardyou on 09.23.22 at 9:47 pm

Somehow I feel our feds will step in to save house prices but end up making it worse…

#118 Millennial's Rock on 09.23.22 at 9:53 pm

#60 Shirl Clarts on 09.23.22 at 5:46 pm
No replies from Garth in the comments, not even for #14 Mr Fox. He and the Mrs. must be busy battening down the hatches. Be safe, Garth and Dorothy.

Mr. Fox is a wuss, and I am in TO. – Garth

I thought you moved to Lunenburg after hand selecting it as the finest place to live in existence….

Why live on one place? – Garth

#119 Quixotic on 09.23.22 at 9:58 pm

#46 omasare
Right, Liz Truss and announcement of the mini budget was a huge hit in the UK.
No thanks.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/23/poor-rich-kwasi-kwarteng-tax-mini-budget-liz-truss

#120 Sail Away on 09.23.22 at 10:02 pm

#104 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 8:23 pm
#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 7:22 pm

Gas jumped to $2.18.9 for Regular today in the Lower Brain land.

———

Bonkers. Gas here in the Ontario sticks is 1.30’s. We might still be benefiting from Ford’s gas tax cut (temporary) though. Even so, when the cut came, it seemed like gas only dropped about 5 cents. We wouldn’t be over 1.45 without the cut. Something has gone haywire over there.

———

It’s just goofy Vancouver pricing, same as real estate.

$1.64/l in Williams Lake today. $1.45 on the Toosey reserve with status card, which our hunting partner has. Strange how he drives a different vehicle every day, haha.

#121 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 10:06 pm

#108 45north on 09.23.22 at 8:30 pm
IHCTD9: The Canada Ms. IH and I grew up in no longer exists.

I’m thinking of you up in Dummer Township. You know Ennismore. My wife’s family built a cottage there 50 years ago. At the time, all the cottages were on the lake. Now, the population is 10 times what it was. At least 10 times. 50 years ago, Ennismore was a farming community, heavily from an Irish background. General Electric was a big employer in Peterborough. I would say that Peterborough was its own city then. I mean people in Peterborough would go to Toronto but mostly they didn’t. I moved to Ottawa 50 years ago. On the way to Ennismore there was a general store P.G. Towns. I heard it burnt down.

We’re going to fade into a land mass with no identity, and no culture,

no you’re not! You’ve got the resources and knowledge to do good. And I mean you personally. You don’t see your life when you’re living. Keep on truckin!
———-

I’m cool wherever Canada ends up, it’s the youth (domestic or newcomer) that will have to live in it. We’re pretty much set and won’t be majorly affected by whatever is coming down the pipe.

WRT culture, I’m talking about a national culture. We are definitely going to lose that because we are not having kids, and rely on immigration instead. It is well established that 1st Gen’s do not produce any more kids than 5th gen’s (I’m proof). Therefore, mass immigration needs to be permanent.

Eventually, Canada will be a kaleidoscope of different cultures, likely all holed up together as they are now, except from coast to coast instead of just in the big Canadian Metros. There won’t be any time to meld together as a nation due to the regular influx. I’d much rather have a slow melting pot like in the US.

I have first-hand knowledge on how this works having been raised in a “national burb” in two different cities, and I can say it takes a good 60-70 years from the time immigration from your parent’s COO peters out before the homeland culture is fully sautéed into the regional one. Urban ethno-burbs would probably take 100+ years to do the same.

Perhaps my hopes are a result of the era I was raised. Immigrants were spread from Bona Vista to Vancouver Island back then. Today they are tightly packed into tiny chunks of urbanity. Will a Canada segregated along ethnic and National lines develop a sense of national unity? Should they? What happens if not?

GE in Peterborough is toast btw.

#122 Millennial's Rock on 09.23.22 at 10:35 pm

Concurrently, we’re becoming a paunchy, egocentric society with the largest cohort telling is they care more about experiences than accomplishments.
…….
Sure sounds like a hippie to me…Turn on, tune in, drop out

Millennials are hitting 40. Hippies expired at 25. – Garth

#123 Robert Ash on 09.23.22 at 10:54 pm

Thanks Garth, for sharing your thoughts.

#124 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 10:59 pm

#120 Sail Away on 09.23.22 at 10:02 pm
#104 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 8:23 pm
#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 7:22 pm

Gas jumped to $2.18.9 for Regular today in the Lower Brain land.

———

Bonkers. Gas here in the Ontario sticks is 1.30’s. We might still be benefiting from Ford’s gas tax cut (temporary) though. Even so, when the cut came, it seemed like gas only dropped about 5 cents. We wouldn’t be over 1.45 without the cut. Something has gone haywire over there.

———

It’s just goofy Vancouver pricing, same as real estate.

$1.64/l in Williams Lake today. $1.45 on the Toosey reserve with status card, which our hunting partner has. Strange how he drives a different vehicle every day, haha
———

If I ever move to (northern) BC, I’ll be sure to install a 200 litre auxiliary tank in the bed. Looks like it pays to shop around in them parts.

Those status cards have some benefit! Nice to have buds like that :). Here in Ontario, us gringos aren’t allowed to shop on the Rez either. But, in typical Canadian fashion, no rules are being enforced. The Aboriginals are making huge bank selling us native cigs (1/4 the cost), weed, auto parts, and gas. Especially gas. Right now it’s 1.29 on the Rez. There’d be a riot if the OPP ever stepped in. Not even sure they can anymore because the local Rez now has their own Police force. Sweet!

#125 DON on 09.23.22 at 11:16 pm

#119 Quixotic on 09.23.22 at 9:58 pm
#46 omasare
Right, Liz Truss and announcement of the mini budget was a huge hit in the UK.
No thanks.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/23/poor-rich-kwasi-kwarteng-tax-mini-budget-liz-truss

*******

Liz and her socialism for the so callef rich elite.

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 11:17 pm

@#122 Millenial’s Rock

Go get another tat.
It’ll make you feel superior.
Until you’re 10 years older and that flabby, wrinkled, faded, shrunken, tat…..just looks pah-thet-ick…..

#127 DON on 09.23.22 at 11:22 pm

#114 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 9:16 pm
@#107 45 North
‘ In Toronto, Altus Group just found that a third of all developers are halting or pausing condo construction projects – eliminating about 10,000 units. ”

++++
This is just the beginning.
The smaller developers/speculators are still in denial.

Lets see what March 2023 after the Liberals roll out another “Good Times” multi billion dollar handouts …Budget….
A budget that will do nothing but put taxpayers deeper in National debt payments (taxes) and tank our dollar even further as international markets punish the Wokesters running us into the ground.

********
That budget could be DYNOMITE!

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.23.22 at 11:29 pm

Texting a few friends in Nova Scotia.
Sounds like the worst of the wind is hitting Halifax…..right now…….
12:30 am HFX time.

#129 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 11:44 pm

#113 Father’s Daughter on 09.23.22 at 9:01 pm

Now why immigrants and refugees all flock to Toronto and Vancouver, that’s another story. Bad idea. Especially if you’ll be working minimum wage. Join one forum and it’ll tell you this on repeat. Ukrainians (who unlike some other immigrant groups can probably find more cultural similarities outside of the major hubs) have been warned relentlessly not to pick Toronto, yet they do. It takes about 2 months before a single Mom with kids can’t make their rent, or feed their kids. Forums are flooded with these stories. Strength in numbers and workers helps a lot. Families who are comfortable co-living, unlike many North Americans who fear being in proximity of other people and prefer large dwellings to very few people, do benefit from the multiple incomes, even if lower. Still better not to be in the GTA though. Canada’s a big country.
—- —— –

It’s definitely a bad idea, but the comfort of an ethno/national burb is almost irresistible. You don’t need great English, the culture is familiar, Religion is the same (even down to the denomination), compatible mates are available, and established immigrants often have resources in place to help the newly arrived. It’s the single biggest reason any non-Western immigrant will willingly move to an urban hell-hole like the GTA. The pain and understanding of what they’ve jumped into comes later. Many will be weighing their options in short order once they’ve got some semblance of stability.

It’s why secretly, I hope prices for homes and rents keep going up in our big cities. This will do in an organic fashion, what our government can’t do – that is push new arrivals out of the GTA/GVRD’s of Canada. It will happen at some point as there will be no option other than going back home. This will begin the spread of our recent immigrants across the country. Once the exit flow is established, it will take on a life of it’s own. IMHO, this process has already begun. Ukrainians do indeed have options, and I fully expect they’ll be exercising same once they get set up in Canada.

#130 DJT on 09.24.22 at 12:39 am

Market knows Russia has completed its Special Operations and is holding Self Determination ‘victory’ elections. So unless NATO attacks the elections Russia is done fighting and things will be going back to normal.

#131 Nonplused on 09.24.22 at 12:49 am

It might be time to look in on the used car market for hints as to what’s coming. They out there sayin’ repo’d cars are going no bid at the auctions. I can’t confirm.

#132 Joe Lalonde on 09.24.22 at 7:44 am

The United States and their Western Alliances figure money and it’s creating and controlling has generated an unrealistic and unreasonable fantasy where materials are magically created to fulfill their objective requirements through policies and unrealistic goals racked with fraud.
Is it any wonder that whatever the United States tries to do now TOTALLY FAILS???

https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2022/09/19/underestimating-the-russian-economy

Having different perspectives and allowed to share them and ideas has been ignored for this globalization experiment that has so many holes…the Titanic was better suited to this task but failed too.
“If you’re not with me, you’re against me” George Bush United States President proclaimed.
Funding consequences and sanctions imposed should you’re not understand it’s implications…so everybody lies.
Stick with the script of our politicians alliances…as individual nations cracking and breaking are reality bites to show they’re foolish objectives were never conceivable.

#133 Wrk.dover on 09.24.22 at 7:47 am

#78 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 6:53 pm
And all those weed corps are going broke. Turns out the street price is less than half the government price. Who would have guessed?
__________________________________

Properly trimmed and dried all bud dope is the most labor crop intensive crop/lb. that comes to mind, after jasmine. I know people in both sides of the industry.

NSLC prices are an unmatchable bargoon.

The govt. won this price war, with ISO9001 quality.

The commercial production companies had no idea what they were getting into, the intensive amounts of labor involved is the killer.

Your friend Justin will let you grow four plants, to see for your self.

#134 Dharma Bum on 09.24.22 at 8:52 am

“Wean yourself off the comment section.” – Garth
——————————————————————————————————-

What?!

And miss all of the rich wisdom from Faron???

I can’t survive without his obsessive, humourless, angry, misguided, reactionary, passive aggressive woke social justice narrative.

I am addicted to it!

#135 Steven Rowlandson on 09.24.22 at 8:53 am

“Post from a couple of days ago: In Toronto, Altus Group just found that a third of all developers are halting or pausing condo construction projects – eliminating about 10,000 units. This comes after the province of Ontario said 1.5 million new homes are required within ten years – a goal that is instantly unattainable since it would require a doubling of production, not a pause.”

It doesn’t matter if they build them or not as those who need such living spaces can’t afford them anyway.
Real estate is so damned expensive that a hole in the ground would be too expensive. Got to be rich to stay and rich to leave because wherever you go there is someone hoping to get rich by paying you very little or screwing you over for a place to live. Ask yourself the question why is it that whenever there is a revolution some of the first to get the ax besides the former government are the merchant class, real estate investors, media and their supporters?
Could it be that there is behavior such groups like and then there is behavior that preserves such groups, and they are not the same thing? Think about it.

#136 The Me Generation on 09.24.22 at 8:58 am

Oh look it’s boomers who started it all….

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-baby-boomers-m

#137 the Jaguar on 09.24.22 at 9:30 am

@#129 IHCTD9 on 09.23.22 at 11:44 pm ++++

It’s already happening IHCTD9. This was the subject of a column in the NP a few days ago (Chris Selley). Here is the leading excerpt.:

Ontario’s population is projected to grow 30 per cent by 2041; the GTA by 52 per cent. “Where are all these new Canadians supposed to live?,” asks Chris Selley.
New population and demographic projections form Statistics Canada, out this week, have been noticed mostly for their predicting rapidly increasing ethnic diversity in a rapidly increasing number of places — i.e., not just big cities. “London (Ont.) is going to, increasingly, look like Toronto,” one immigration expert told the London Free Press, citing Windsor, Ont., as another example.

Generally speaking, this is the correct way to look at these data. While the overall population projection of 47.7 million Canadians by 2041 might sound big, it represents only slightly more than the average rate of growth we have seen in recent years. We have certainly welcomed many more per annum in decades past. It’s relatively ethnically homogeneous cities that will likely see the biggest changes, purely in the sense of seeing more people who aren’t white, and that’s an interesting phenomenon.

London, Ont., is currently around 21 per cent “racialized,” according to census data. By 2041, it’s projected to be 32 per cent. Windsor’s viz-min population is projected rise from 27.5 per cent to 45 per cent. It’s even more remarkable outside of Ontario. The overall population of Saskatoon is projected to rise by 33 per cent; the visible-minority population, by 122 per cent. Calgary will be a majority non-white city by 2041, according to these projections.

#138 Don Guillermo on 09.24.22 at 11:29 am

#113 Father’s Daughter on 09.23.22

Ukrainians (who unlike some other immigrant groups can probably find more cultural similarities outside of the major hubs) have been warned relentlessly not to pick Toronto, yet they do. It takes about 2 months before a single Mom with kids can’t make their rent, or feed their kids. Forums are flooded with these stories. Strength in numbers and workers helps a lot. Families who are comfortable co-living, unlike many North Americans who fear being in proximity of other people and prefer large dwellings to very few people, do benefit from the multiple incomes, even if lower. Still better not to be in the GTA though. Canada’s a big country.
#########
Ukrainians in Canada – , quick google search. Not sure how current these stats are.

Canada has the second-largest Ukrainian diaspora group in the world after Russia,

Manitoba: 180,055
Saskatchewan: 143,700
Alberta: 369,090
Ontario: 376,440

#139 David Mel on 09.24.22 at 1:46 pm

Thanks Garth I’m prepared my shopping list.