Winning?

Trudeau warbling out a Queen tune before the real Q was buried lit up social media this week. But here on this pathetic blog, we know what really matters.

Youbetcha. An ebbing in the domestic core inflation rate. Now that. Is. Exciting.

In case you missed it Tuesday morning, Canada’s romping cost of living index has retreated again. The headline number fell from 7.6% to 7% – and down from more than 8% a few months ago. What aroused economists, caused a bond market erection and sat on the dollar was the core rate. That’s inflation when volatile stuff like energy is stripped out. It reflects fundamentals such as housing. And it’s going down.

Sure, we know it’s only one month of data. But this has happened after three months of job losses and rising unemployment, six months of real estate erosion and snappy declines in the Canadian stock market. In short, economists are now asking themselves the Big Question: is the Bank of Canada winning?

After all we’ve seen five rate hikes, the last two of which were serious mothers (1% and .75%). Our CB has been tightening more aggressively than any other in the western world. The benchmark rate has travelled from just 0.25% to 3.25% in record time. Mortgages that were 1.5% are now 5.1% and yesterday’s post showed you in gory detail exactly what this means to family finances and debt repayment.

A new payroll survey published as the inflation data emerged showed 11% of we little beavers spend more every month than we earn, that a majority of folks could not survive one missed paycheque and that one in ten save nothing. Not for new Fluevogs. Not for retirement. Nada.

And, of course, check out how the tumbling value of housing is bringing down the cost of living’s core rate:

What does all this mean?

Well, everything can change but at the moment is appear the central bank will be jacking rates by a half point on October 26th (no longer expected to be 75 bps), then add another quarter point on December 7th – then stop. That will have moved the level to 4%. Variable-rate mortgages will be sitting at just under 6%. Five-year fixed loans should settle around 6.5%. And hopefully inflation will start to fall from 7% into a range more acceptable.

Will rates then begin to decline in 2023?

In three words: not a chance. Not the way things are looking now. Not when inflation is still 6% or even 5%. Not when any decline would threaten to rekindle a real estate speculative bubble. Or reverse the damage the central banks are deliberately trying to cause.

Now, there’s the Fed to consider.

American authorities are expected to add 75 points to the US benchmark tomorrow, another 75 later in the year, then a quarter point in December. That would hike the rate there to 4.5% – higher than ours – which is one reason the greenback’s creaming the loonie at the moment.

Other risks include Putin and volatile energy prices. All we can do at this point in time is speculate. But it’s clear the cost of debt will continue to escalate. The values of houses will continue to deflate. The burden of variable-rate mortgages will increase. The financially illiterate will continue to suffer. Until we emerge into that sunny pasture of stability.

A year from now? Maybe. At the earliest.

Meanwhile, let’s gather round the piano man. We’re all in the mood for a melody.

About the picture: “Great blog,” writes A.R. “I wish I had discovered it earlier. This picture of Mika and Groucho makes me think of our current economic times.”

147 comments ↓

#1 Smartalox on 09.20.22 at 2:28 pm

Got my trigger letter from [email protected] today.

Any ideas on the best way to handle it Garth? I checked yesterday’s comments for suggestions, but the comments section was somewhat derailed.

A.

#2 dave on 09.20.22 at 2:29 pm

Where is the discounts….Everything you look to buy is unbelievably expensive.

Real Estate is still out of control – have not seen a price reduction in Metro Vancouver

#3 DON on 09.20.22 at 2:36 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/the-big-boost-from-falling-gasoline-prices-may-be-coming-to-an-end

Behind a paywall…can someone elaborate on what was stated in the article?

#4 ElGatoNeroYVR on 09.20.22 at 2:36 pm

#51 PeterfromCalgary on 09.19.22 at 6:20 pm
Emma Zaun – Greater Fool Unpaid Intern #007

Speaking of the Queen I just don’t understand people who blame her for Residential Schools, Colonialism and a host of other unfair policies.

Since Britain became a democracy in 1832 policy was made by elected officials not the King or Queen. Residential Schools were the idea of Canada’s Parliament. Colonialism was the policy of the British Parliament. Queen Elizabeth II had nothing to do with making these policies as far as I can tell she deliberately didn’t comment on political matters. Am I missing something here?
================
With no disrespect to the late monarch , I would say that in modern terminology she would be seen as an “Influencer” and “Brand Ambassador” so the actions of the brand (British Empire) fall on the public figure , right or wrong.The same where in reverse , here at home the actions of T2 reflect and are owed by the Liberal Party of Canada.

#5 inflation is rampant on 09.20.22 at 2:39 pm

Fed Funds today 2.5% and expected to be 4.5% by year end. Loonie collapsing, will only add to ” inflation”. We’ll be the next Argentina if our Central Bank doesn’t raise higher and faster than the US.

plug in 4.5% Fed Funds, economic recession, rising unemployment, collapsing PE ratios and figure out a level for the SP… i’ll bet you it’s 2500 or less. look out below…

#6 Summertime on 09.20.22 at 2:43 pm

Of course the reported ‘inflation’/aka CPI/ is a lie.

Even at 4 % rates are strongly negative, it should be in double digits.

#7 Ustabe on 09.20.22 at 2:45 pm

#3, Don.

Sometimes you need a ladder to see over a wall.
Link is to a 12 foot ladder. https://12ft.io/

#8 Mr Fox on 09.20.22 at 2:46 pm

If BoC stops raising rates around the end of this year, a lot of “waiting on the sidelines” buyers will jump in 2-3 months after that. So I expect a pretty busy RE season next spring. The cause most of the buyers are waiting is not because they can’t buy… it’s because they are waiting for the rates to peak and prices to bottom.
In the meantime the equity market is a shit show… with more people around saying that there’s still way to go down. So if you’re like me, keeping the down payment for your potential next house in a BnD portfolio, you might get a pretty good price on a house soon, but you won’t have enough money to pay for it lol

#9 uncle dave on 09.20.22 at 2:48 pm

MEGHAN MCCAIN: Trudeau offends millions belting out a Queen karaoke hit as world mourned her death ¡ Daily Mail Online
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11231129/MEGHAN-MCCAIN-Trudeau-offends-millions-belting-Queen-karaoke-hit-world-mourned-death.html

#10 chalkie on 09.20.22 at 3:01 pm

Is it any wonder why people are so confused, with the so-called experts of banking institutions, they can’t even agree on what to have for lunch, what one fellow has to say, the other says the opposite, this friendship agreement may have taken place over lunch. The professionals fully know that one of them will be closer to being right, they get a Gold Star sticker for a good job,” I guess”, so on and so forth. The other opponent wins tomorrow and the one who wins the most, gets offered a CEO position across the street from one of the ivory towers. Ever notice how much some CEO’s move around to different organizations and their stocks suddenly rises in value but the increase is short lived, not surprisingly as it was all in vain. This process is called desperation and panic hiring from the organizations in need, fire one, hire another with no better outcome and your stock suddenly plunges again and gets stuck in a cue. One institution recruiting talent from the other, over and over this goes on with promises of new shares, perks and retirement packages, or was that talent after all, uncle Bob could have done better?

FedEx is a perfect example that a Global Recession is hanging in the balance right now, their business slowdown would have started by a trickle to an accelerated loss of business, once China falls victim, the world will follow and the United States is no longer king of GDP. FedEx is a solid stock, but it will take time to recover from this one.

For home prices, a Canadian Bank recalibrated its original forecast downward from 12 percent to 14 percent on September 15th after the Bank of Canada raised its overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on September 7. I guess someone forgot to tell them, home price have already descended far below their projections by the time their paper was printed, they may have been busy reading comic books.
Another US Fed rise in rates delivered tomorrow and the Canadian Bank number percentage forecast will be really out to lunch, Canada is setup for a culture shock boys, hold onto your shorts.

In Toronto and Vancouver — the two least affordable markets — the decline is “quickly” turning into one of the sharpest falls in the past 50 years. Anyone with a Large HELOC right now, is not very happy.

Rising interest rates have been pouring “buckets of ice-cold water” onto the Vancouver housing market since the spring. Activity is down 40% over the last four months and prices are faltering – the MLS composite HPI is down 4.5% since April. “We expect the downturn to deepen and become more widespread as buyers wait and assess the impact of higher lending rates.”

Barring the April 2020 lockdown, housing activity is at its slowest pace in more than 13 years. Previously, inventories at lows are up 58% year over year, while Toronto’s composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) is down 13% since March 2022 to $1,160,000.

We’re just barely seeing the cracks in the housing market. As the home prices decrease more, people will feel like they have less money now than before, that is not healthy for the mindset, we don’t know what this is going to do our economy, we do know it won’t be a positive. The anticipated 75 basis points in the United States tomorrow, might even be a mistake this early in the game in their minds.
There is always a lag in the market outcome when rates move, our picture is not very pretty for the near future for the housing market, this is our biggest ticket item in life, for the most part and there seems to have been another game played with people’s livelihoods through housing run-aways. When prices should have been falling due to work layoff’s, factories shutting down and coming to a craw with many industries row backs, the house prices were rising higher and higher, do that make any sense to you? This was programmed with low interest rates to keep our economy going, done with total disregard to one’s future. Look where we are now, what a mess for a large percentage of many future unknowns, “sad but true” for our kids and grandchildren coming behind us.

We are just an extension of United States, believe it or not, when the US sneeze’s, Canadians get a cold. The September CNBC Fed Survey shows the average respondent believes the Fed will hike 0.75 percentage point, or 75 basis points, at Wednesday’s {tomorrows} meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.1%. The US central bank is forecast to keep hiking until the rate peaks in March 2023 at 4.26%.
It is believed the US FEDS will overdo it on interest rate hikes and cause a recession. If for one second you think Canada will not be towed into this trap at the same time, think again and again, be smart and put a few dollars aside for a rainy day, its going to be a wet one.

Have you noticed all the realtor open houses recently, check your newspaper or on line in your area, you will be surprised. Plan on selling, if you are listing a home, and believe in open houses, don’t settle for this one and half hours for an open house, its three hours minimum or hit the road, Jack. You are paying multiple tens of thousands of dollars and they want to give you 1-1/2 of their time, “can you imagine the nerve of some realtors”. Open houses for realtors is a contact source of trying to meet new clients and find out what they looking for, for the most part, it does little in selling your home, it about contacts for them. If you are shopping around and looking at open houses, once you go through the door, just say, “I am working with an agent and they will leave you alone”, they can be annoying in pumping for information”.

Unless you are desperate to move or in a situation of having to sell, save your money for now on home buying, your best deal is 12 to 18 months out there somewhere, “you haven’t seen anything yet baby”. Don’t listen to your realtor, they are so far behind the ace ball, they think they are in first place, “because when they look behind, there is no one there”.

#11 Concerned Citizen on 09.20.22 at 3:02 pm

Germany’s PPI came it at 45.8% y-o-y for August. No, I have not misplaced a decimal point. That’s 45.8%. And 7.9% m-o-m.

Not to fear though, because the ECB is taking inflation extremely seriously and has its main policy rate at 0.75%. If that doesn’t stop inflation in its tracks, what will?

If oil and other commodities don’t rebound, a return to a 65 cent CAD is looking increasingly likely. That won’t be good for inflation, either. If only we did more than trade homes/rent seek and screw over our youth in this country, the outlook might be brighter.

How will Trudeau have our backs when every marginal new dollar in tax revenue goes to interest on the national debt?

#12 Søren Angst on 09.20.22 at 3:10 pm

Elated as well Garth at reading the CPI from StatCan today.

Good for the people struggling right now due to high inflation.

Still, one last thing that wasn’t such good news, per StatCan:

“Prices for food purchased from stores continued to increase in August (+10.8%), rising at the fastest pace since 1981 (+11.9%). ”

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220920/dq220920a-eng.htm?HPA=1

Overall, better times.

But with caution (energy as you say) I believe that gas prices have been suppressed due to the US Midterm Elections (Nov 8) and that after that gas prices will go up again. Energy/Transportation are major contributors to inflation.

I remain optimistic.

#13 Concerned Citizen on 09.20.22 at 3:11 pm

#2 dave on 09.20.22 at 2:29 pm
Where is the discounts….Everything you look to buy is unbelievably expensive.

Real Estate is still out of control – have not seen a price reduction in Metro Vancouver

*****

Nor in my neck of the woods.

For another example, check out of the prices of Nvidia’s new GPUs released today, and then with a straight face tell me inflation is coming under control.

NVDA is a great example of the COVID bubble the central bankers blew. NVDA is now off ~62% from its all-time high, and yet still trades at over 10 times revenues and ~30 times forward earnings (which, IMO, are likely too optimistic, given the product pricing and crypto bubble implosion). I would like to think this episode will have finally convinced central bankers of how corrosive 0% nominal rates are for the economy, but something tells me we’ll be right back there at warp speed once (if?) the worst of the inflation is over.

#14 ogdoad on 09.20.22 at 3:18 pm

Meanwhile, food, education, wealth inequality is progressing. Human induced climate change is progressing (who cares right? We’re safe and sound here in Canada). There is a progression of lovelessness in many FWCs. Due to what? 60’s Hippies wanting to be independent? Jeesh. What are their grandchildren going to be like? Maybe the perfect, duped, moldable, addicted zombies that Govn’ts looove to take advantage of? Oh and lets not forget a progression of divisiveness and polarization around the world (full. Dis. Not getting too much into this one ’cause…um….well, I have my rep. to tend to and I like to be loooved…a lot).

But, its the day before humpday! Yay!

Og

#15 Doing my Part on 09.20.22 at 3:20 pm

dave is obviously a real estate pumper, at least the third time he has posted he doesn’t see any price reductions.
And oh yeah, your bitcoin is still at $60k a coin.

#16 Søren Angst on 09.20.22 at 3:22 pm

I wasn’t totally forthright about the Canada House heckling en route to the funeral that Trudeau received for his inebriated song routine in London.

The heckling was down right nasty and by the Brits – CAUTION, the words “fascist” and alt. child born out of wedlock are used:

https://twitter.com/canmericanized/status/1572140722958241794

Best Tweet was by the Daily Mail (again) on Trudeau’s Queen song, Bohemian Rhapsody, routine:

https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1571921090145914881

… me
Galileo, Galileo
Galileo, Galileo
Galileo, Figaro – magnificoo

I’m just a poor boy nobody loves me
He’s just a poor boy from a poor family *

————-

* 1 out of 3 is correct

#17 Søren Angst on 09.20.22 at 3:34 pm

PS:

#TrudeauMustGo

still No. 1 on Cdn Twitter trending and No. 2 is:

Bohemian Rhapsody

FYI,

#IStandWithTrudeau

dropped out of the Top 50.

Imagine that?

#18 DC on 09.20.22 at 3:39 pm

Respectfully Garth, an inflation rate of 7%, down from 7.5% is hardly ‘winning’. I suppose we are on the right track, but the BoC needs to keep with the rate hikes otherwise us ‘dumbass, we have to have everything we want and have it right now’ Canadians will never get out of the soup.

DC

#19 Søren Angst on 09.20.22 at 3:48 pm

Off topic.

Probably the 2nd best Twitter exchange today about the Queen’s funeral (after chanteur de salon Trudeau):

https://twitter.com/Tdr1nka/status/1571901629921730567

Americani 🙄

#20 Big Bucks on 09.20.22 at 4:06 pm

Home prices have gone up 6 or 7 times over the last 25 years(in the big centers) so as long as people have access to that through HELOC’s inflation will remain high.Pray that oil stays under $130-150 or inflation will explode higher in 6 months,a year,2 years from now.We’re a long way from out of the woods here.14 years of QE,0% loans and RE that went up 7 times will not be corrected in a year—it may take 20.

#21 Tony on 09.20.22 at 4:22 pm

Interest rates were always higher in Canada until Stephen Poloz got into power. Canadian interest rates should always be higher than American interest rates because of the Canadian dollar being at risk.

#22 Nora Lenderby on 09.20.22 at 4:34 pm

A while ago, certain persons here were remarking how common TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) was. I confess, reader, I laughed.

Now, we seem to have our own TDS, just not about Mr. Trump. It’s not really about Mr. Trudeau either, but I can’t explain it.

#23 Tony on 09.20.22 at 4:36 pm

Re: #13 Concerned Citizen on 09.20.22 at 3:11 pm

I said if there was one stock to own it would be Nvidia. At the time it was 20 dollars U.S. a share before any stock splits. Right here on this blog.

#24 Father's Daughter on 09.20.22 at 4:36 pm

Observational real estates notes in the areas that I am looking in
Saw two houses sell this week. One originally listed for 139999, sold for $950000. Second listed for $1.9M, lowered to $1.5, has a conditional offer. Houses without significant price drops are sitting. There don’t seem to be a lot of new listings, maybe they’re waiting for spring.

On the Airbnb front – hosts are reporting that bookings are WAY down. Two probable reasons – people cutting down on their vacation expenses, and tons of new listings on the market (people not affording their homes? need quick cash?) Deals to be had, although like housing, the prices became completely outrageous and in Ontario are now subject to HST.

#25 Is anybody listening? on 09.20.22 at 4:39 pm

Canada to make ArriveCan optional, drop COVID-19 vaccine requirement at the border by Sept. 30: sources

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-to-drop-covid-19-vaccine-requirement-for-entering-country-on/

#26 Reality check on 09.20.22 at 4:51 pm

2 Dave
Real Estate is still out of control – have not seen a price reduction in Metro Vancouver
————
Similar in Victoria, although seeing some price reductions and bidding wars only for those sellers still ballsy enough to list below market.

I haven’t crunched the numbers but I wouldn’t doubt that given higher interest rates and prices holding steady that monthly costs of owning in Victoria at all time highs.

I hope that the lower prices seen in the east trickle westward. In Victoria people relocating from other provinces are a chunk of the market. Hard to believe that people from Ontario are going to be as excited about buying a $1.4 million Victoria bungalow when their Toronto house just sold for $350k less then it was worth in February.

But who knows, I have given up trying to apply rationality to the Victoria market.

#27 yvr_lurker on 09.20.22 at 4:55 pm

The dopes who “invested” with this 23 year old crook have made it to the top of the class in financial illiteracy. They are poster children for naivety and stupidity thinking that some 23 year old crypto-dude had the ultimate secret for getting rich quick. If it wasn’t so tragic for these people it would be laughable. What were they thinking? Money is long gone and the bankruptcy proceedings will be drawn out for years as regulators try to recover assets that are likely hidden away. My prediction is that he gets a very minimal sentence if any, as financial fraud is not something that courts deal with harshly in Canada based on past precedents.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/luxury-cars-seized-crypto-king-investors-try-recoup-millions-1.6583982

#28 SW on 09.20.22 at 4:56 pm

Funny how our inflation is below the US while the loonie has been pummelled vs the greenback. No playing with with statistics here. Inflation numbers vary on the methodology and what weight is applied to what service / asset. Hard to know what we are being fed is accurate.

I’m interested to see what energy does this winter and beyond. This is a long term story. Buckle up.

#29 Steve on 09.20.22 at 4:56 pm

No cause to celebrate. Remember, inflation compounds. The hiking will stop when something breaks. And I don’t mean your mortgage payments.

#30 MC on 09.20.22 at 4:59 pm

what about the predictions of an “end of year rally” for the markets?

#31 I have 3 kids on 09.20.22 at 5:00 pm

Although rates won’t be going to levels seen in the late 70s and early 80s, there is a correlation between higher rates and lower equities.
Even thought the US GDP increased 370% from 64-81,
The Dow Jones on Dec 31, 1964 – 874.12
The Dow Jones on Dec 31, 1981 – 875.00

Warren Buffett sums it up here

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/1999ar/FortuneMagazine.pdf

#32 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.20.22 at 5:03 pm

#24 Father’s Daughter on 09.20.22 at 4:36 pm
Observational real estates notes in the areas that I am looking in
Saw two houses sell this week. One originally listed for 139999, sold for $950000. Second listed for $1.9M, lowered to $1.5, has a conditional offer. Houses without significant price drops are sitting. There don’t seem to be a lot of new listings, maybe they’re waiting for spring.

On the Airbnb front – hosts are reporting that bookings are WAY down. Two probable reasons – people cutting down on their vacation expenses, and tons of new listings on the market (people not affording their homes? need quick cash?) Deals to be had, although like housing, the prices became completely outrageous and in Ontario are now subject to HST.
———–
Re: Airnb
On our last trip East this spring, we used only Airnb.
Never again.
Usually in crappy location.
One had no fire alarm, no fire escape and was in an 100 year old rundown house.
Pictures are fake.
Can’t get a hold of anybody, when service is needed.
Have some weird tenants living in other parts of the house.
Next time Howard Johnsons all the way.

#33 young & foolish on 09.20.22 at 5:05 pm

Dr. Doom says we’re in for a long and deep dive …. sigh*

#34 Flop… on 09.20.22 at 5:09 pm

#15 Doing my Part on 09.20.22 at 3:20 pm
dave is obviously a real estate pumper, at least the third time he has posted he doesn’t see any price reductions.

:////////////////////////

I looked back at my Flop Drops history yesterday.

Middle of May when I started looking into it the bottom of the detached market in Vancouver was1.5.

Now 1.3

So 50k a month is coming off the bottom of the price of housing each month.

I’ve highlighted a few recently around the 1.2 mark that have sold, so it is heading lower.

It was falling quicker in June/July around 18.5k a week but stabilized during August and now is in the process of taking another step down.

I’ll be here if anyone else wants to know the truth…

M48BC

#35 Linda on 09.20.22 at 5:18 pm

‘Lies, damned lies & statistics’ – isn’t that what we are looking at here? OK, so the lower inflation rate is presumably due to tumbling RE prices. But I wonder, just how manipulative a number the latest inflation is. For instance, when incorporating dropping RE values in the calculation do the number crunchers also include little things like the increase in carrying costs for debt? Or is that factoid left out as it might provide a less positive result? Fuel prices have dropped – at the moment, anyway – but winter is coming. Don’t know about anyone else, but have now received a couple of missives talking about how energy (utility) rates are set to spike & to ‘lock in now’ to protect the family budget. Fact or fear? Obviously getting customers to commit to a contract could be financially beneficial – to the companies, that is – especially if the much anticipated higher rates aren’t actually as high as anticipated. I’d add that lower gas prices in Red Deer Alberta do not automatically translate into lower gas throughout Canada – or even Alberta, for that matter. Apparently some folks are actually driving to Red Deer to fill up on ‘cheap gas’. I suppose if one is just a short drive away that would be smart, but not if one is driving from say Calgary or Edmonton. Drive 1.5 hours to save what? $0.30 a liter? At a guess, the so called ‘savings’ would be used up in time/gas spent getting to/from the gas station.

#36 Broader Mind on 09.20.22 at 5:19 pm

So the Canadian 5 year bond yield is dropping. Our dollar is not only plummeting against the USD but also against the Mexican peso (breached 15) . Move on, nothing to see (or think about) here.

#37 Wrk.dover on 09.20.22 at 5:27 pm

36 comments ↓
#1 Smartalox on 09.20.22 at 2:28 pm
Got my trigger letter from [email protected] today.

Any ideas on the best way to handle it Garth?
____________________________________

Iron Maiden song, “RUN TO THE HILLS”, comes to mind!

#38 kommykim on 09.20.22 at 5:29 pm

RE: #4 ElGatoNeroYVR on 09.20.22 at 2:36 pm
#51 PeterfromCalgary on 09.19.22 at 6:20 pm
Emma Zaun – Greater Fool Unpaid Intern #007

Speaking of the Queen I just don’t understand people who blame her for Residential Schools, Colonialism and a host of other unfair policies.

=======================================

First, I’m going to say that I disagree with the idea of inherited historical guilt. It’s just ridiculous.

But, if you were going to play that “woke game”, the royal family is one of the most deserving targets. The monarchy was in power in those days, along with the rich lords and ladies of both England and France. Those are the people who made those “colonist” decisions and make bank from it. Not the serfs of England and France just trying to keep from starving by escaping to the new world.
It is even more ridiculous to try and blame someone whose ancestors came much later from other European nations that had little to nothing, to do with the colonizing of Canada.
ie: recent immigrants. WTF did they do to be vilified simply for not being native?

#39 TurnerNation on 09.20.22 at 5:39 pm

Germany falling hard in this global WW3 – economic weapons. (WW2 repeated)

https://www.politico.eu/article/german-producer-price-post-record-jump-adding-to-inflation-woes/amp/
FRANKFURT — German producer prices rose in August at the fastest rate since records began in 1949, data released by the Federal Statistical Office showed today, pointing to a further increase in consumer prices.
Producer prices of industrial products rose by 45.8 percent compared to the same month of last year. Compared to July 2022, prices rose 7.9 percent.

—————
Life in Kanada. How’s the ‘Hospital Capacity’ looking these days? I posted this here so many times.

Century Initiativehttps://www.centuryinitiative.ca
The Century Initiative is focused on responsibly and thoughtfully growing the population of Canada to 100 million by 2100.

—………… Now we see it.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-canada-to-have-50-million-people-half-of-them-immigrant-families-by-2041
Canada to have 50 million people, half of them immigrant families, by 2041
According to Statistic Canada projections, Canada will add 13 million new citizens over the next 19 years

#40 Mr Fox on 09.20.22 at 5:47 pm

#33 young & foolish on 09.20.22 at 5:05 pm
Dr. Doom says we’re in for a long and deep dive …. sigh*

————-

Not only him but Greg Jensen Co-CIO at Bridgewater as well… I hope they are both wrong… Else, this will be a lesson hard learned.

#41 Brian May on 09.20.22 at 5:50 pm

I was hoping your PM would’ve belted out ‘Fat Bottomed Girls’

#42 Retired in Kelowna on 09.20.22 at 5:52 pm

I love the last few lines Garth! Billy Joel – The Piano Man!

#43 Julia Childs on 09.20.22 at 5:54 pm

#1 Smartalox: Nyquil chicken might help you sleep tonight.

#44 Bard Labm on 09.20.22 at 5:59 pm

Now is the best time to invest in rural Ontario real estate. They don’t produce anymore land.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.20.22 at 5:59 pm

@#19 Soren.
“the right to bare arms”

Classic.

#46 Brian on 09.20.22 at 6:13 pm

A fresh survey showed 67% of employers welcome the resignations of those that won’t come back into the office. The word welcome was used. 89% of their employees said they feared they would lose their jobs if they didn’t come back

https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1572343720854360069

#47 jess on 09.20.22 at 6:17 pm

Aiden Pleterski, 23, dubbed ‘the Crypto King’ in several paid-for promotional articles, which included this photo of him on a private jet, owned nearly a dozen high-end vehicles and was paying $45,000 a month to rent a lakefront mansion in Burlington, Ont. (TechTimes)

Two McLarens, two BMWs and a Lamborghini make up just a few of the $2 million worth of assets seized from a 23-year-old from Whitby, Ont., as his investors try to recoup millions of dollars they handed over to the self-described “Crypto King.”

But so far, Aiden Pleterski’s assets fall far short of what his investors claim they’re owed.

Creditors are working to unravel where at least $35 million provided to Pleterski and his company AP Private Equity Limited for cryptocurrency and foreign exchange investments ended up, according to a fraud recovery lawyer and documents filed in two separate actions reviewed by CBC Toronto.

#48 earthboundmisfit on 09.20.22 at 6:18 pm

I’m thinking you might want to consider stand up comedy as a side hustle. “Aroused economists and bond market erection”. Priceless.

#49 jess on 09.20.22 at 6:23 pm

Trump Derangement Syndrome
….his latest claim is that he is THE storm while wearing a Q pin with Q music theme playing ….omg!
======
In Alberta, the centrepiece of United Conservative Party leadership hopeful Danielle Smith’s campaign is a controversial proposal called the Alberta Sovereignty Act. Smith says the act would allow the Alberta legislature to choose not to enforce any federal law or court order it believed ran counter to its interests.

#50 Brian on 09.20.22 at 6:30 pm

German MEP Manfred Weber castigated fellow European politicians last Wednesday for “doing pictures with Trudeau” while shutting down Canadian gas.

“That is not serious, dear friends. That is not serious,” Weber told the European Parliament.

#51 jess on 09.20.22 at 6:32 pm

…This time around, he said corporations, and shadow banks such as hedge funds, private equity and credit funds “are going to implode.”

https://www.thestar.com/business/2022/09/20/economist-who-predicted-housing-bubble-expects-long-ugly-recession-that-will-wipe-out-zombie-institutions.html

#52 NOSTRADAMUS on 09.20.22 at 6:36 pm

FRED FLINTSTONE.
Okay I drove around town with Fred Flintstone, so that makes me old, but not stupid. There is not going to be noticeable deflation, ever. I’ve come to grips with that, so I have stopped looking forward to it. What I’m going to get instead is inflation, raging inflation, and that is what I need to deal with because that is reality. Here is my reasoning for making such a contrary comment.
(1) Deglobalization is inflationary- Offshoring production to low-cost countries imported deflation (product prices remained flat or declined) and boosted corporate profits. Deglobalization will increase costs and pressure profits. Consumers will pay more as supply chains are shored/secured.
(2) Energy will cost more. Oil and natural gas will fluctuate and could drop significantly as global demand drops, but in the long run the easy-to-access energy has been depleted and all energy will cost more.
(3) Capital will no longer have zero cost. The 40+ year cycle of credit has bottomed and is reversing. As global risks rise, capital will demand a return.
(4) Labor scarcities will increase. Workforces in most nations are shrinking while the population of retirees soars.
(5) The pandemic changed perceptions of what’s important. People gained new appreciation for the here and now and the futility of assuming the future is riskless and predictable. Rather than sacrifice for an increasingly unstable, unpredictable future, people are pursuing what they want now.
(6) Non essential jobs will be slashed. Enterprises can’t cut maids, drivers, waiters, welders, etc. nor can these jobs be automated, despite the robotic fantasies of the intelligentsia. Who they can. and will cut are the people spending their days in meetings.
All of these, and more, are structural dynamics that won’t go away in a few months or years. My crystal ball isn’t cloudy, to my way of thinking it is crystal clear. Finally the voice of reason.

#53 The Original Jake on 09.20.22 at 6:45 pm

The FED needs to drop the hammer now and get ahead of the inflation monster. A min hike of 1% is needed but 1.25% is better. Will we get it? Naahhh.

#54 willworkforpickles on 09.20.22 at 6:53 pm

BANNED (Abusive)

#55 Ed on 09.20.22 at 6:55 pm

I’ve been driving/sailing to Mexico for well over 30 years…I remember getting 6 pesos to the Can $.
15 pesos is a gift…see ya down there!

#56 stevenrowlandson on 09.20.22 at 7:06 pm

At the risk of advertising for my brothers place here is an example of the madness of the real estate market.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24887247/280-robins-point-road-victoria-harbour

#57 Reality is stark on 09.20.22 at 7:15 pm

None of this is news, read my previous posts.
When the war broke out in Ukraine and commodities took off we had an opportunity to cut spending and suck in more revenue.
Instead T2 pissed it away on more stupid spending programs and you wonder why the dollar is falling?
Really? Are you that dumb?
We’ve goosed public sector salaries and pensions to the risk averse. You think this transfer of wealth adds to prosperity? Are you that dumb?
This is nothing more than a socialist highly indebted backwater.
Harper was the right man for the job and we replaced him with a child.
You reap what you sow.
There is a ton of oil in the world, the Saudi’s can drive it to $15 a barrel in a heartbeat even without increased Iranian production.
A lot of your neighbours will be going bankrupt, that is when you’ll understand that good leadership is important.
A man who spends your money like a drunken sailor is not a good leader.

#58 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.20.22 at 7:19 pm

#39 TN

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-canada-to-have-50-million-people-half-of-them-immigrant-families-by-2041
Canada to have 50 million people, half of them immigrant families, by 2041
——————
You got me confused.
Half of them, immigrants by 2041?
I thought all Canadians are/were immigrants.
Or do you mean Non-white immigrants?
But overall, the numbers could hold.
Canada is a popular country.

#59 Jane on 09.20.22 at 7:20 pm

2023 will be much higher inflation, cost of living as gas is $3.00 a liter and food is 15% more expensive, 7% mortgage rate coming to a world near you.

#60 Pain_Trade on 09.20.22 at 7:21 pm

Roubini is correct about the zombies out there that will get wiped out but it will be further inflationary to the rest of the economy as these suppliers will no longer exist.
That is why the auto manufacturers like Honda, Toyota etc… are taking it real slow to provide supply as they see the mess ahead and don’t know how to price their vehicles accordingly.

#61 Don Guillermo on 09.20.22 at 7:30 pm

Bev Oda resigned as Con MP just over 10 years ago. Most believe it was because of Liberal outrage over London Savoy Hotel expenses which included a $16 orange juice. One wonders what the Savoy deluted Juniors OJ with last week?

#62 John in Mtl on 09.20.22 at 7:36 pm

@ #52 NOSTRADAMUS on 09.20.22 at 6:36 pm

Unless *you* are Charles Hugh Smith, at least have the decency to cite your source!

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept22/recession-different9-22.html

#63 Victor Llearna on 09.20.22 at 7:39 pm

DELETED

#64 PeterfromCalgary on 09.20.22 at 7:49 pm

It interesting that our inflation is falling even though are dollar is very low. The US which has a very strong dollar right now has higher inflation. Usually a higher US dollar makes it easier for the FED to fight inflation because imports are cheaper as measured in US dollars. I find it puzzling.

#65 Drill Baby Drill on 09.20.22 at 7:51 pm

What the hell is a Fluevogs ?

#66 Shawn on 09.20.22 at 7:57 pm

Turner Nation on population growth

Canada to have 50 million people, half of them immigrant families, by 2041
According to Statistic Canada projections, Canada will add 13 million new citizens over the next 19 years

************************************
Well, it’s a fact that if existing Canadians would “get busy” they could get the population even higher AND make the percentage coming from immigration be less than half. So, get busy!

And, yes I’m okay with adding to the 7 or 8 billion people on the planet. Bring it on.

#67 45north on 09.20.22 at 7:59 pm

ElGato Speaking of the Queen I just don’t understand people who blame her for Residential Schools, Colonialism and a host of other unfair policies.

British royals expert Hilary Fordwich stunned CNN anchor Don Lemon into silence with her argument that African slave owners owe “reparations” rather than the British Empire, in a viral clip from CNN’s coverage of the death of the queen. 

https://www.foxnews.com/media/don-lemon-roasted-royal-expert-answer-britain-paying-reparations-ready

completely stunned

#68 LG on 09.20.22 at 8:02 pm

Trudeau is his own distraction from his work.

Instead of focusing what work he has done, he has everyone talking about his social life.

Connecting with his inner Freddie, he had to let it out.
Who cares? Not me.

I’m looking at what he has done. Leave the personal life out it, and see what lies beneath.

Canada will become more successful, and prosper again when Canadians do that for themselves. As individuals. That’s how a country is lifted. Not by governments.

#69 45north on 09.20.22 at 8:02 pm

chalkie: For home prices, a Canadian Bank recalibrated its original forecast downward from 12 percent to 14 percent on September 15th after the Bank of Canada raised its overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on September 7. I guess someone forgot to tell them, home price have already descended far below their projections by the time their paper was printed, they may have been busy reading comic books.
Another US Fed rise in rates delivered tomorrow and the Canadian Bank number percentage forecast will be really out to lunch, Canada is setup for a culture shock boys, hold onto your shorts.

yeah, Canada is in for a culture shock. It’s not just that prices are dropping, it’s that days-on-market is increasing. Maybe if you have a HELOC, you’ve already heard from your bank.

#70 april on 09.20.22 at 8:17 pm

#13 – “…have not seen a price reduction in Metro Vancouver…” check out, MyRealtycheck.ca Lots of downward pointing red arrows.

#71 THE DANDADA on 09.20.22 at 8:17 pm

“The financially illiterate will continue to suffer.”

I assume your referring to our government?

#72 Monetary flop on 09.20.22 at 8:27 pm

DELETED

#73 crossbordershopper on 09.20.22 at 8:28 pm

l see most people who save nothing, like myself. I dont need to, the govt of Canada will look after me. I knew this 30 years ago when I finished University and nothing has changed, I knew Canada was a ponzi scheme, with immigrants being the sausage in the machine. lies, churn and burn, keep new ones coming in while the true elite let no one ever have a chance. Cant get financing for anything, cant get a permit, because of the powers that be etc. Degrees mean nothing when no one gives you a chance.

#74 Dragonfly58 on 09.20.22 at 8:29 pm

#58 Ponzius, I am decended from immigrants, but over 5 generations ago. Except one grandmother who was evacuated to Canada as a child to escape the war in Belgium { 1917 }. You really think I am still concidered an immigrant ?

#75 Mid on 09.20.22 at 8:38 pm

#62 Drill Baby Drill

Fluevogs are designer shoes. Canadian I believe.
Bonnie Henry (?), health minister (?) wears them. Very expensive.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.20.22 at 8:40 pm

@#56 SteveO
“At the risk of advertising for my brothers place here is an example of the madness of the real estate market.”

+++
The “Victoria Harbour” had me fooled for a second.

$1.6 million for a house on (frozen or hypothermic swimming 6 months of the year) Georgian Bay Ontario?

I thought people in BC were stupid.

Good luck.

#77 Love_The_Cottage on 09.20.22 at 8:48 pm

I don’t have young kids but I support dental care for low income Canadians kids. My Canada includes looking out for others.

Will an efficient, no-wait-time, private dental care system turn into what public healthcare has become? – Garth

#78 young & foolish on 09.20.22 at 8:53 pm

It has been suggested that increasing government debt leads to greater private sector profits (more or less).

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.20.22 at 8:57 pm

Well.
I’ve heard of a lot of ways to cure a hangover ….
But Russian shamans take the toadstool

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiU-7-41qT6AhWsBjQIHQL_DIoQFnoECAkQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbsnews.com%2Fnews%2Ftoad-poison-hangover-treatment-reportedly-kills-russian-oil-executive%2F&usg=AOvVaw0XkD63nvLU-gsXSwWQTMZq

A ‘cure” that only Russian oil executives can afford.

#80 Wrk.dover on 09.20.22 at 9:02 pm

#56 stevenrowlandson on 09.20.22 at 7:06 pm
At the risk of advertising for my brothers place
_____________________________________

Did you craft the staircase? Design it too?

#81 @J on 09.20.22 at 9:12 pm

#72 Love_The_Cottage on 09.20.22 at 8:48 pm
I don’t have young kids but I support dental care for low income Canadians kids. My Canada includes looking out for others.

Will an efficient, no-wait-time, private dental care system turn into what public healthcare has become? – Garth
-—————————

Honest question – what’s the better alternative that improves the dental health care for low income Canadians and their children, yet still maintains efficiency in the overall system? And if there is a solution then can it also apply to and improve our general healthcare system?

#82 The General on 09.20.22 at 9:25 pm

7% inflation is unacceptable. Is Pe-Pea just the solution to the Trudeau problem? Problem-Reaction-Solution scenario? Right wing parties are gaining ground across the west. Puppeteers pull the strings. No matter red, blue or yellow.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.20.22 at 9:26 pm

@#80 Wrk.dvr
“Did you craft the staircase? Design it too?”

+++
I spotted that staircase as well.
Neat design.

#84 Linda on 09.20.22 at 9:31 pm

#65 ‘Drill’ – shoes. Handmade or custom fitted shoes if I recall correctly.

#85 The General on 09.20.22 at 9:36 pm

#79- Mr. Fartz: You’re right, William Shatner doing L.S.D. deserves top spot on the cringe-meter. There’s 2 sides to every story, and the end hasn’t been written…yet.

#86 Ponzolicious on 09.20.22 at 9:36 pm

And this is from a 2019 BoC report that saw the structural cracks appearing before the plandemic came along to save the system.

“Bank of Canada Staff Warn Home Equity May Be Concealing Financial Distress”

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/san2019-14.pdf

#87 DON on 09.20.22 at 9:40 pm

Inflation did dip last thing as well before resuming a climb. I wish the stuff I have to buy daily dips a lot.

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.20.22 at 9:46 pm

@#82 J
“onest question – what’s the better alternative that improves the dental health care for low income Canadians and their children, yet still maintains efficiency in the overall system?”

+++
Nova Scotia used to have free , basic, dental care for children up to the age of 16.
I dont know if they do that any longer.
We had a dentist as our next door neighbor so it was pretty hard to avoid check ups, cleanings, fillings….etc

Hurricane Fiona warning for north east N.S. ( Da Cape) for Saturday.

#89 DON on 09.20.22 at 9:47 pm

#77 Love_The_Cottage on 09.20.22 at 8:48 pm
I don’t have young kids but I support dental care for low income Canadians kids. My Canada includes looking out for others.

Will an efficient, no-wait-time, private dental care system turn into what public healthcare has become? – Garth

********
Perhaps ‘we’ should go back to healthier choices and not have to rely on our health care system for the stuff we can change ourselves. Watched History 101 on corn sryup etc.

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.20.22 at 9:47 pm

74 Dragonfly58 on 09.20.22 at 8:29 pm
#58 Ponzius, I am decended from immigrants, but over 5 generations ago. Except one grandmother who was evacuated to Canada as a child to escape the war in Belgium { 1917 }. You really think I am still concidered an immigrant ?
——————————
Haha,
I know that’s the conundrum.
Where’s the cut off.
We’ve got citizens, permanent residents, expats who return.
And then there are First Nations.
Are they the first Canadians or immigrants, too?

#91 MK on 09.20.22 at 9:53 pm

Not sure where the housing prices are going down, not in Toronto, tonight for 6 Hancock Cres Toronto MLS#:E5763619 there were 60 offers presented.

#92 The joy of steerage on 09.20.22 at 9:54 pm

Skippy really wanted to sing this….

https://youtu.be/f4Mc-NYPHaQ

#93 Doug t on 09.20.22 at 9:58 pm

#75 mid

They suck – NOT what they were many years ago

#94 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.20.22 at 9:58 pm

#81 @J on 09.20.22 at 9:12 pm
#72 Love_The_Cottage on 09.20.22 at 8:48 pm
I don’t have young kids but I support dental care for low income Canadians kids. My Canada includes looking out for others.

Will an efficient, no-wait-time, private dental care system turn into what public healthcare has become? – Garth
-—————————

Honest question – what’s the better alternative that improves the dental health care for low income Canadians and their children, yet still maintains efficiency in the overall system? And if there is a solution then can it also apply to and improve our general healthcare system?
——————————
Good questions.
But from my own experience, dental care is getting so expensive that, even with insurance from work (with 50% deductible, and 2k per year limit) dental work is getting unaffordable for many people.
A simple bridge replacing 3 teeth is now about 6k.
That’s why many people get the tooth pulled, rather than get it crowned or replaced.

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.20.22 at 10:03 pm

Further to expensive dental care:
The cost of pet dental care is even worse.
A simple cleaning for my cat is now about 600.
It all adds up.

#96 Don Guillermo on 09.20.22 at 10:31 pm

Rosemary Barton reports

“The Prime Minister is greeted by UN ambassador, Bob Rae. Both will attend the United Nations General assembly.”

Sources say they’ll open up with the Simon and Garfunkel classic:
The Only Living Boy in New York.

… I get the news I need on the weather report
Oh, I can gather all the news I need on the weather report
Hey, I’ve got nothing to do today but smile
De-doh-n-doh-de-doh…
And here I am
The only living boy in New York

#97 TheMangler on 09.20.22 at 10:38 pm

“Not for new Fluevogs. Not for retirement. Nada.”
Pure genious Garth. Still laughin’.
Thanks for all you do.

#98 DON on 09.20.22 at 10:48 pm

#87 DON on 09.20.22 at 9:40 pm
Inflation did dip last thing as well before resuming a climb. I wish the stuff I have to buy daily dips a lot.

******
Should have read ‘Inflation did dip last year as well before resuming a climb.

#99 Cici on 09.20.22 at 11:01 pm

#2 Dave

I haven’t seen any price declines in Québec either. Most asking prices are about $100,000 above the supposed February peak. Not much inventory either. May have to buy a castle in Europe instead, LOL!

#100 The real Kip (Ret) on 09.20.22 at 11:25 pm

More inflation Frankenumbers. The slight drop today was mostly because of lower gas prices. Wait till November when Sleepy Joe stops stimulus to oil companies in the form of 1m bpd from the Strategic Reserve.

#101 Darin Dentiz on 09.20.22 at 11:27 pm

Will Canada adopt UK DIY dental practices.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11091901/Dentists-UK-Meet-desperate-Brits-forced-resort-DIY-dentistry.html

Everybody gonna look like Austin Powers. Yeah baby!

#102 the jaguar on 09.21.22 at 12:07 am

@ Ponzi

If you are loving and humane enough to care for you cat’s dental needs I may, however reluctantly given your political positions, need to provide a letter of recomendation to allow your entrance through the ‘Pearly Gates’. Enough said.

#103 TurnerNation on 09.21.22 at 12:07 am

The Science just changed. In time for all those wintertime tourists. You know, all those tourists coming for the -20c chill. Tourists operators rejoice?

.Canada to make ArriveCan optional, drop COVID-19 vaccine requirement at the border by Sept. 30: sources (theglobeandmail.com)

— Oh dear. We were to be so healthy after 2.5 years of Rule, Mandates.

.UK: More people have been dying this year due to irregular heartbeat, official figures suggest
‘Deaths due to an irregular heartbeat are likely to be one of the reasons more people than usual have been dying this year – with the number well above average so far.
The number of deaths registered in England and Wales due to cardiac arrhythmias was more than usual for much of the first half of 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Deaths in this category had the second highest excess mortality figures in March and April, up from being the eighth highest in February and the fourth highest in January. (news.sky.com)


— Our rulers must keep this going. Rooting in our waste. This is like, totally normal.

.USA: National COVID-19 wastewater levels signal viral uptick ahead of fall. Scientists say wastewater data has been helpful in monitoring the pandemic. (abcnews.go.com)

—— Tricky. Discernment. Mainstream news source for the Normies.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-will-leading-cause-death-indefinitely-us-rcna48374
“Covid death numbers could also fall if hospitals stop routinely testing people for the virus. That’s because the current death counts may include some people who tested positive for Covid when they were hospitalized but died of other illnesses.

“Having filled out hundreds of death certificates in my life, I know that some of these deaths are ‘with’ rather than ‘from’ Covid,” Wachter said.
Murray estimated that half of annual Covid deaths may fall into that category.”

#104 Diamond Dog on 09.21.22 at 12:16 am

Other risks include Putin and volatile energy prices. All we can do at this point in time is speculate. – Garth

I’ll take that bet. (nice rate update piece by the way)

Putin’s Russia is now planning weekend elections in the area’s of occupation to annex Ukraine’s east and south and call these regions Russia’s. In so doing, the war would shift from a “special military operation” to a war declaration on Ukraine. This would open the door for mass conscription and a redoubling of war efforts in Ukraine, including an escalation of nuclear threats from Russia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DN8UOlQy508

If anyone thinks the war in Ukraine will be over any time soon, they may have to think again. What is much more likely is an escalation of war by Russia. In essence, Putin is doubling down in his bid to hold power. Whether this works for him to tighten his grip on Russia through support for the war, remains to be seen. If it does, this war will worsen and casualties will climb much higher than at present, imagined.

#105 DJT on 09.21.22 at 12:19 am

Winning!
Now Russia has completed its objectives and dug in all thats left is to redraw the maps.

#106 Footloose on 09.21.22 at 12:35 am

Falling inflation is great cheerleading fodder if pumped by a proven dishonest faction of a paid for and bias media. But looked at another way, they only leaned on a one month dump relying on a real estate bubble crash and forget to include that inflation in consumers related areas is still raging.

Nice attempt to dodge reality. And coincidentally to head jerk the Trudeau drunk song contest ( yes he was cow eyed pissed according to eye witnesses) away from another international embarrassment for Canada.

Interpreting media isn’t hard. The guys who have a long reputation of bias and dishonesty should not be your main source of information. May I remind you all of the outright lies and redactions related to the Covid protests? If the lies were that blatant in origin and intent then, why believe anything they say now. Put the Pom poms down and be critical spin that might not be in your best interests.

#107 Jane24 on 09.21.22 at 2:35 am

May I suggest that if you want dental work done you book it in and get it done on a holiday to Europe. I have just had a double tooth plate put in by a private dentist here in England. It cost £1400 in Canadian dollars and any Canadian can do the same. Not an National Health Service dentist but a private one. Many Brits feel that this price is too high so go to first class dentists in Southern or Eastern Europe to pay half that. Avoid Turkey. Hungary is popular. Asia also has first class dentists and opticians for peanuts. I get my designer knock-off glasses in Vietnam. I get my purses in Dubai. Also good for glasses. For Asia I take ripped out pages of Vogue and ask for clothes copies to be made. They fit like a glove, top quality fabric for very little money. A tailor in Hanoi has my husband’s measurements and does his custom shirts for $25 each. Get out there. If you have an EU parent/grandparent or great-grandparent, get that second passport. It opens even more doors.

This is what I never understand about fellow Canadians. They complain constantly and quite rightly about the nose bleed high cost of living in Canada but never get on a plane to buy what they can, when they can, outside of the country, including new teeth.

#108 Jane24 on 09.21.22 at 2:39 am

Correction that is $1400 Canadian for my two new teeth, that is £941 in pounds. Even cheaper! Just so used to typing that pound sign. Get on that plane!

#109 RealityChex on 09.21.22 at 4:53 am

#37 Wrk.dover on 09.20.22 at 5:27 pm
36 comments ↓
#1 Smartalox on 09.20.22 at 2:28 pm
Got my trigger letter from [email protected] today.

Any ideas on the best way to handle it Garth?
____________________________________

Iron Maiden song, “RUN TO THE HILLS”, comes to mind!

===============================

More like “Bring Your Daughter to the Slaughter”.

#110 Ronalda on 09.21.22 at 5:01 am

#58 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.20.22 at 7:19 pm
#39 TN

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/first-reading-canada-to-have-50-million-people-half-of-them-immigrant-families-by-2041
Canada to have 50 million people, half of them immigrant families, by 2041
——————
You got me confused.
Half of them, immigrants by 2041?
I thought all Canadians are/were immigrants.
Or do you mean Non-white immigrants?
But overall, the numbers could hold.
Canada is a popular country.

=============================

Is it?

2nd highest land mass in the world after Russia.

0.48% of the world’s population.

Doesn’t sound that popular to me.

Thought you had a job involving numbers?

#111 under the radar on 09.21.22 at 5:44 am

56 – here’s the thing. Crowded by neighbours on each side , one is having a party while the other is sanding his deck , of course on the weekend. If the new owners are really lucky they get Air BNB on both sides. 1.7 to drive 2hrs from 416 to see and hear your neighbours all the time.

#112 the Jaguar on 09.21.22 at 7:50 am

#111 under the radar on 09.21.22 at 5:44 am
56 – here’s the thing. Crowded by neighbours on each side , one is having a party while the other is sanding his deck , of course on the weekend. If the new owners are really lucky they get Air BNB on both sides. 1.7 to drive 2hrs from 416 to see and hear your neighbours all the time.+++

So incredibly ‘spot on’. Real luxury is getting away from people, especially those whose entire happy existence is owed to the constant use and running of ‘power tools’. The power washers, leaf blowers, band sawers, etc. Real luxury is the beautiful quiet of nature. For everything else there is Mastercard.

#113 the Jaguar on 09.21.22 at 7:51 am

Since there is water in front, maybe add ‘Jet skis”.

#114 Dharma Bum on 09.21.22 at 8:07 am

#41 Brian May

I was hoping your PM would’ve belted out ‘Fat Bottomed Girls’
——————————————————————————————————-

I posted a link to that song here along with a stupid comment the day after her highness passed, but Garth deleted it.

Clever man, that Garth.

I never would have thought, however, that the esteemed leader of a Commonwealth country like Canada would publicly do something as stupidly infantile as I would do.

Alas, our “leader” isn’t that smart. Just a virtue signalling, fake-woke, economically challenged, morally dysfunctional, hopelessly grasping, educationally defunct, shamelessly vainglorious punk.

I love when he steps into it.

In the words of the famous Alfred E. Newman:

“What? Me worry?

#115 the Jaguar on 09.21.22 at 8:19 am

Hey ‘WFH in PJ’ peeps…this is called ‘trickle up economics’..

“Gap Inc. is cutting 500 corporate jobs as it contends with growing costs and weaker sales figures. The roles being eliminated are primarily at Gap’s offices in San Francisco and New York, as well as in Asia, the company said Tuesday.”

And when you work from home and get ‘disappeared’ it doesn’t even hit anyone’s radar……

#116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.21.22 at 8:24 am

107 jane24
“This is what I never understand about fellow Canadians. They complain constantly and quite rightly about the nose bleed high cost of living in Canada but never get on a plane to buy what they can, when they can, outside of the country, including new teeth.”

+++
Jetsetting to Asia for tailored clothing.
New teeth in Britain.
Purses in Dubai.
Just doing your part for global warming eh Jane?
As long as you look good with the new teeth, faux glasses, and knock off clothing…thats whats important.
Well, You are improving.
You didnt call your fellow Canadians stupid for still living here….this time…

I hear electricity is skyrocketing this winter in Europe.
Something about Putin turning off the taps?
Here comes the Recession.

#117 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.21.22 at 8:40 am

Putin denies considering Nukes.
Then he threatens to use nukes.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-signs-decree-mobilisation-says-west-wants-destroy-russia-2022-09-21/

He’s painted into a corner and he’s getting desperate.
300,000 more troops mobilized for the war in Ukraine.
First time a general mobilization has been implemented since WWII.
That first 100,000 was a warm up for the meatgrinder.
The scary version?
If he doesn’t “win” there are people crazier than him in the Kremlin that will go to total war to prove Russia’s greatness.

As China watches and waits.

#118 Radio Ga Ga on 09.21.22 at 9:03 am

Did you guy see this?

Man who appeared to grab flag on Queen’s coffin did not believe she was dead, court hears

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/sep/21/flag-queen-coffin-muhammad-khan-court-westminster

Imagine…The Queen is alive, just chilling in her final years?

That would be SO amazing!

#119 IHCTD9 on 09.21.22 at 9:10 am

#74 Dragonfly58 on 09.20.22 at 8:29 pm
#58 Ponzius, I am decended from immigrants, but over 5 generations ago. Except one grandmother who was evacuated to Canada as a child to escape the war in Belgium { 1917 }. You really think I am still concidered an immigrant ?
______

And on the flip side, my Dad is an actual immigrant – but considers himself 100% Canadian. You’ll never hear him hyphenate his Citizenship even though he has two of them. You’ll never hear him speak his first language outside the house. He hates the current immigration plan in Canada too!

Maybe it’s one of those things you just “identify” as, and we all roll with it.

Now that’s Canadian.

#120 Brian on 09.21.22 at 9:22 am

Hot on the heels of the Queen’s funeral in London and the UN General Assembly in New York, the Prime Minister will spend the weekend & much of next week in Japan, attending Shinzo Abe’s funeral and succeeding in avoiding nearly 2 weeks of Question Period

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.21.22 at 9:30 am

The Russian Duma ( pronounced “Doom-ah”) has passed a new law for its military.

“Voluntary Surrender” can be punished by 10 years in prison.
“Refusal of service” can net a Russian military conscript 3 years in prison.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/20/russian-lawmakers-approve-long-jail-terms-for-military-surrender-refusal-to-serve-a78843

Come Hell or high water. Putin will get his “Russian Empire” back.
300,000 new men for the meat grinder.
I hope they have lots of hospital beds and bandages.

As men flee the prison called “Mother Russia”.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/flights-out-russia-sell-out-after-putin-orders-partial-call-up-2022-09-21/

#122 the Jaguar on 09.21.22 at 9:48 am

I’m feeling bad about posting about those 500 jobs lost with Gap.
So, I’ll post this instead to make up for it:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/de-havilland-aircraft-calgary-canada-alberta-1.6404371

Thank you, Jason Kenney for your service. Working his keyster off for this province right up to his final hours…

#123 The joy of steerage on 09.21.22 at 9:56 am

116 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.21.22 at 8:24 am
107 jane24
“This is what I never understand about fellow Canadians. They complain constantly and quite rightly about the nose bleed high cost of living in Canada but never get on a plane to buy what they can, when they can, outside of the country, including new teeth.”

+++
Jetsetting to Asia for tailored clothing.
New teeth in Britain.
Purses in Dubai.
Just doing your part for global warming eh Jane?
As long as you look good with the new teeth, faux glasses, and knock off clothing…thats whats important.
Well, You are improving.
You didnt call your fellow Canadians stupid for still living here….this time…

I hear electricity is skyrocketing this winter in Europe.
Something about Putin turning off the taps?
Here comes the Recession.

Be grateful that Lady Jane shares her shopping tricks with the plebs in the colonies

#124 Felonious Chadq on 09.21.22 at 10:28 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/banks-may-leave-mark-carney-s-climate-alliance-on-legal-risks

They hired an unknown entity in Justin Trudeau, and what a horror show. But the Liberal Party will do it again, foisting a relative unknown for PM. But how many people know why Marc Carney was fired from his position at the BOE. Does anyone know how a firestorm of far left fanaticism drives Marc Carney? He makes Trudeau look like a witless boob by comparison. Thought you should know because Canadian media are mum on his background .

#125 Tbone on 09.21.22 at 10:32 am

Socialism never works out, keep believing in fantasy.

#126 Logan on 09.21.22 at 10:56 am

Has any Prime Minister fired a Bank of Canada Governor like what Poilievre plans to do?
It seems quite extremist to me.

He won’t fire him. And, of course, he my never be in a position to do so. Tiff’s head is safe. – Garth

#127 Observer on 09.21.22 at 10:57 am

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.20.22 at 10:03 pm
Further to expensive dental care:
The cost of pet dental care is even worse.
A simple cleaning for my cat is now about 600.
It all adds up.

^^^^^^^^^^^
I highly recomment pet insurance preferably purchased when your pet is young and has no pre-existing conditions yet. Pre-existing conditions are not coverable.

I have a dog that has had 9500 worth of claims paid out so far (two ACL tears). Cost of insurance so far (over several years) has been less than 3000, so we are ahead of the game.

Our pets are our friends and deserve to be treated well including adequate veterinary care. If you can afford the hit to your budget when your dog or cat gets sick or injured, then you may not need pet insurance but for those of us whose budgets are not so flexible, pet insurance provides great peace of mind and in some cases (like mine)turns out to be the cheaper option.

Having said that, tooth cleaning (a maintenance expense like vaccines and wellness checkups) are not typically covered.

#128 DON on 09.21.22 at 11:22 am

#122 the Jaguar on 09.21.22 at 9:48 am
I’m feeling bad about posting about those 500 jobs lost with Gap.
So, I’ll post this instead to make up for it:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/de-havilland-aircraft-calgary-canada-alberta-1.6404371

Thank you, Jason Kenney for your service. Working his keyster off for this province right up to his final hours…

*********
What/who is making him leave his position? I mean this respectfully.

#129 Ivan Hortone on 09.21.22 at 11:36 am

Garth, thinking of parking money in 2 year US treasury Etf with rates at close to 4%, and also buying USD/CAD currency pair. Why not more talk of alternative strategies here, rather than buy and hold which only works in a low interest rate bull market with stable geopolitical conditions

#130 Yukon Elvis on 09.21.22 at 11:36 am

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.21.22 at 9:30 am
The Russian Duma ( pronounced “Doom-ah”) has passed a new law for its military.

“Voluntary Surrender” can be punished by 10 years in prison.
“Refusal of service” can net a Russian military conscript 3 years in prison.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/20/russian-lawmakers-approve-long-jail-terms-for-military-surrender-refusal-to-serve-a78843

Come Hell or high water. Putin will get his “Russian Empire” back.
300,000 new men for the meat grinder.
I hope they have lots of hospital beds and bandages.

As men flee the prison called “Mother Russia”.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/flights-out-russia-sell-out-after-putin-orders-partial-call-up-2022-09-21/
++++++++++

It is not a certainty that those conscripted clerks and truck drivers will even reach the front lines to meet the battle hardened Ukrainian Army. Putin’s house is on fire.

#131 Linda on 09.21.22 at 11:37 am

#107 ‘Jane’ – when touting the cost of your dental care, don’t forget to add the travel cost of getting to/from said dentist. By the time one adds in air fare/accommodation, plus making an appointment with & arranging to have work done etc. your ‘cheap’ dental work may not actually be that cheap. There is also the little issue of follow up if something goes wrong. If you are living here, a bit pricey to go there, now isn’t it?

#132 Squire on 09.21.22 at 11:37 am

#124 Felonious Chadq on 09.21.22 at 10:28 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/banks-may-leave-mark-carney-s-climate-alliance-on-legal-risks

They hired an unknown entity in Justin Trudeau, and what a horror show. But the Liberal Party will do it again, foisting a relative unknown for PM. But how many people know why Marc Carney was fired from his position at the BOE. Does anyone know how a firestorm of far left fanaticism drives Marc Carney? He makes Trudeau look like a witless boob by comparison. Thought you should know because Canadian media are mum on his background .
——————————
Uhm, have you seen how clueless most Canadians are ? We are a glutton for punishment and don’t learn… our PM is the laughing stock of the world but yet we somehow make excuses for him. Carney is even more radical and western Canada should be very concerned if PM get’s pushed out by the LPC and replaced by Carney

#133 Squire on 09.21.22 at 11:43 am

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.21.22 at 9:30 am
————————————————————
Sadly, many will be cannon fodder. Young, untrained, scared. No chance against hardened Ukrainian fighter.
This is Putin’s desperation in his fight to regain soviet territory. Russia’s demographics are horrible and if this doesn’t work this will be a steep downhill ride for Russia as a country.

#134 Ustabe on 09.21.22 at 12:38 pm

Having said that, tooth cleaning (a maintenance expense like vaccines and wellness checkups) are not typically covered.

Tooth cleaning is dramatically minimized if you brush your cat or dog’s teeth regularly.

Simple things like tooth brushing, nail clipping and mat splitting are easily done and prevent or postpone the expensive vet visit.

The trick is to socialize the animal when small so they tolerate you playing with their toes, fingers in mouth, etc. DIY on that stuff saves you loads of money over time.

#135 tbone on 09.21.22 at 12:45 pm

# 125 Tbone

Get your own name , you aint me .
( The original tbone )

#136 DON on 09.21.22 at 12:55 pm

#135 tbone on 09.21.22 at 12:45 pm
# 125 Tbone

Get your own name , you aint me .
( The original tbone )
*******

I think ‘Koko’ is free?

#137 IHCTD9 on 09.21.22 at 1:04 pm

Firewood is sneaking up on 400.00/ cord (bush) this year. It’s becoming a luxury item. Wood pellets are actually down this year compared to last year. Steel is dropping now right across the board. Gas is in the 1.30’s locally. Dollar is 1.34 CAD.

I wonder if the price drops will be undone by a weak Loonie. If the FED keeps galloping while the BoC flakes out – we might not get to enjoy much of the decreases.

No biggie though. I make my own decreases.

#138 Bdwy on 09.21.22 at 1:08 pm

Fed hawkishness will be the surprise.

Look out below.

#139 Bdwy on 09.21.22 at 1:37 pm

The ex Climate woman from Canada was just on Bloomberg.

“Using a paper straw shows you care about climate change” , she cackles.

Paper straws use 3x the energy to manufacture of plastic.

She is the greatest embarrassment to Canada next to Mr tipsy blackface public crooner.

#140 WTF on 09.21.22 at 1:56 pm

#107 24 “but never get on a plane to buy what they can, when they can, outside of the country, including new teeth.”

—————————————————————

Uhhh not so fast. Maybe your colonial rellies dont avail themselves of the wonderful cornucopia of world wide services/products available to discriminating and enlightened consumers such as yourself.

For Canucks looking to save on dental, No brainer, Mexico, been going on for years.

https://www.medicaltourismex.com/specialties/dentistry

The rest, tailored clothes, knock off designer junk, yes Asia offers great deals, and many folks go there from western NAmerica. Many. Not just former colonials who now deign to dispense nuggets of genius to the Neanderthals in the new world.

#141 tbone on 09.21.22 at 1:58 pm

# 136 Don

LOL , thats funny , George was the best .

#142 the Jaguar on 09.21.22 at 2:29 pm

@#128 DON on 09.21.22 at 11:22 am
#122 the Jaguar on 09.21.22 at 9:48 am++

What/who is making him leave his position? I mean this respectfully.++

There was a leadership review/vote within the UCP in May of this year. Kenney ‘squeaked’ through, but decided to step down as he felt he didn’t have sufficient support. So there will be a leadership vote on Oct. 6th.

None of the candidates can hold a candle to Kenney, including crazy Danielle Smith who has a plan to ‘opt out’ of anything that isn’t in the province’s interest.

The right wing rural yahoos ( same ones who were anti vax during Covid ) are a significant entity in Alberta.

Religious groups from non mainstream churches, etc. They are often well organized. ( yeah, I said that and I am not taking it back, so kiss my ass yahoos ). They don’t represent the diversity of the province these days.

They were just like a cancer eating the UCP from within and doing everything to ‘de-throne’ Kenney. I think he just got tired of it and applied the ‘give them enough rope and they will hang themselves’ approach. We’re losing a smart, hard working Premier as a result in my opinion.
Hoping Rebecca Shulz gets the nod. We’re rising from the ashes here in Alberta and the last thing we need is one of the other mutts heading up the province. Here’s a link if you care to know more………

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ucp-leadership-candidates-profiles-alberta-1.6567174

#143 miketheengineer on 09.21.22 at 2:32 pm

Garth et al:

Maybe some of the numbers presented by the Gov…are FRANKEN numbers….picked out of the hat.

Never have we seen homeless, and beggers as we are seeing now. Go to your local big box store, like WM….and almost everytime, somebody is standing out front asking for handouts….or chasing you around the parking lot with a sign and an empty cup…or you stop at the stop light….(Upper James and Mohawk Road in Hamilton)….These people are now everywhere, and this was not always like this.

I can’t meet my budget for food items any longer. Prices up on everything. Gas up too high. My spouse stopped purchasing take out lunches…started brown bagging it.

What ever the “real” inflation is….it could be anybody’s guess. Pick a number any number will do. The real number will come, when you go to try to pay your bills and you can’t….then the joke is over.

Welcome to the world of T2. Build Back Better. And someone once said….you will own nothing and be happy. Welcome to the great reset of T2.

Rumors are flying that gasoline goes to 10 bucks US after the US election.

This will be very fun Garth. Paying the bills is going to be very very fun. I am sooo excited to be part of the Build Back Better Agenda…woooo hoooo!

#144 kommykim on 09.21.22 at 2:37 pm

RE: #112 the Jaguar on 09.21.22 at 7:50 am
So incredibly ‘spot on’. Real luxury is getting away from people, especially those whose entire happy existence is owed to the constant use and running of ‘power tools’. The power washers, leaf blowers, band sawers, etc. Real luxury is the beautiful quiet of nature. For everything else there is Mastercard.

=======================================

I was camping in a BC provincial park a few weeks ago and went for a walk around the campsite loop. There was a guy with a battery powered leaf blower blowing the leaves off his shiny new black truck.
Some people are just obsessed with these things. Who brings a leaf blower camping?

#145 Observer on 09.21.22 at 2:41 pm

#134 Ustabe on 09.21.22 at 12:38 pm
Having said that, tooth cleaning (a maintenance expense like vaccines and wellness checkups) are not typically covered.

Tooth cleaning is dramatically minimized if you brush your cat or dog’s teeth regularly.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
True that. But even regular brushing (just as with humans) does not negate need for the occasional professional scaling. My vet recommends every 4 years or so depending on the amount of tarter buildup.

#146 Bdwy on 09.21.22 at 4:03 pm

Dentastix and bones . Done.

#147 Concerned Citizen on 09.22.22 at 11:20 am

#23 Tony on 09.20.22 at 4:36 pm
Re: #13 Concerned Citizen on 09.20.22 at 3:11 pm

I said if there was one stock to own it would be Nvidia. At the time it was 20 dollars U.S. a share before any stock splits. Right here on this blog.

*****

I would be a big buyer at $20 too. At $125/10 times revenues today? Not a chance. At $300+ late last year? Heck no!

That’s the problem I see with the big U.S. indices. They are dominated by tech giants with rich valuations. Take AAPL. A great company that will print cash for years to come. But why would I pay 24 times forward earnings for a company with slow growth in a rising rate environment and possibly entering into a recession? Now that the ZIRP/NIRP environment is no more – at least for the time being – mark to fantasy is starting to disappear. The FOMO, TINA (There is no alternative) trade is dying rather dramatically.