Not so fast

Are you a realtor worried about the next Audi lease payment? Are you relieved to know the feds’ fancy new First Home Savings Plan is launching in a hundred days? And convinced that miserable mortgage stress test will soon be gone? No more 7% hurdle for newbie buyers?

Well, fuhgeddaboudit. Everything just changed.

First, read this memo, sent internally at one of the country’s largest financial institutions. Seems the FHSA – that incredibly generous new tax shelter – won’t be materializing any time soon.

Although these accounts are scheduled for launch on January 1st, 2023, insufficient information has been provided by the CRA on what reporting specifications will be required by them to track and monitor these accounts through requisite file submissions from the entities that offer them.  Without the end-to-end specifications being confirmed and/or obtained the development teams charged with setting up these accounts we don’t know what to build and cannot proceed.  In summary, the industry is still waiting for further guidance from the CRA to begin this process so it is anticipated to be several months beyond the intended launch date before these accounts become available at any financial institution in Canada.

This is not the news the housing industry was hoping to hear. As we’ve detailed, the FHSA is quite the creation – allowing eight grand a year to be totally sheltered from tax (like a TFSA), but also churning out a deduction from taxable income (like a RRSP). Money can grow tax-free, be withdrawn tax-free (so taxpayers subsidize it) and used to buy a house which can generate tax-free capital gains. And if you stay houseless, the money can transfer, tax-free, into a tax-sheltered retirement plan. In short, it’s a gift. But it’s not coming any time soon, apparently.

So how about the stress test? Surely that sucker will be ghosted.

After all, the regulation requires all borrowers to earn enough income to qualify for a mortgage at the higher of (a) 5.25% or (b) the rate the lender is offering plus 2%. Now that the Bank of Canada meanies have jacked rates five times, five-year mortgages at the Big Six are running at around 5.2%. The stress test has turned into a towering obstacle to house lust. It punts a lot of would-be buyers and drops the amount of financing many others qualify for. The intent was to shield people from rate hikes. Now that 1.5% loans have turned into 5% ones, it helps depress the market.

Days ago the Toronto real estate cartel joined a chorus of voices begging for the test to be dumped. Here’s what the local Chief Wizard, John DiMichele, had to say:

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) should weigh in on whether the current stress test remains applicable. Is it reasonable to test home buyers at two percentage points above the current elevated rates, or should a more flexible test be applied that follows the interest rate cycle? In addition, OSFI should consider removing the stress test for existing mortgage holders who want to shop for the best possible rate at renewal rather than forcing them to stay with their existing lender to avoid the stress test. This is especially the case when no additional funds are being requested.”

Now we know the answer. OSFI says phooey.

The boss there is Peter Routledge. In a speech he has just made this commitment: “The uncertainty and anxiety caused by a rising interest rate environment have, understandably, caused some Canadians to advocate for a loosening of the underwriting standards in Guideline B-20 [the stress test]. Let me reassure those of you who oppose a loosening of underwriting standards that OSFI will not do that.”

So the test remains. When the Bank of Canada raises its rate again on October 26th (and presumably on December 7th) the qualifying rate will increase, along with Government of Canada bond yields and the cost of five-year mortgages.

Well, so much for realtor relief.

Now what’s happening to the market, coast-to-coast?

We’ll continue to monitor that for you. But here’s a glimpse. In Kelowna, for example, this report: “We are almost half way through this crash and prices are expected to bottom in May of 2023 and then trade sideways for well over a decade.” The peak-to-trough average detached price that hit $1.26 million in March, 2022, would then be $786,000 next May. Ouch.

Source: RE Analytics, The Kelowna Real Estate Report

In Toronto, Altus Group just found that a third of all developers are halting or pausing condo construction projects – eliminating about 10,000 units. This comes after the province of Ontario said 1.5 million new homes are required within ten years – a goal that is instantly unattainable since it would require a doubling of production, not a pause.

Economists tell us it takes a year, at least, for the effect of rate hikes to ripple through society. Alas, we have but begun.

About the picture:Hello Garth, Thank you so much for changing our financial situation,” writes Anne. “I’ve been reading your blog for years. Here is a picture of Lucy, my friend’s darling 9 yr old Labradoodle. Together we all love to walk every summer, all summer on Savary Island, enjoying beaches and forest trails. Lucy loves to show off her competence with her agility, and then receive the expected treat.”

149 comments ↓

#1 Faron on 09.15.22 at 1:25 pm

Next up on the reading list, 4 books about Putin’s Russia.

* Nothing is True and Everything is Possible — Peter Pomerantsev

* The Road to Unfreedom — Timothy Snyder

* Putin’s Russia — Anna Politkovskaya

* The Future is History — Masha Gessen

I recently purchased a used Kobo for $20. That plus Overdrive is magic.

#2 PeterfromCalgary on 09.15.22 at 1:40 pm

So basically the government promised this FHSA but didn’t give the banks guidance so they could set them up.

Perhaps the government should ease up on announcing new programs. First the Federal government should concentrate on improving government departments so they can deliver services in a timely and efficient manner.

Also fix or replace that Phoenix payroll mess so the civil service can get paid in a timely manner. Getting payed on time means our civil service will be better able to focus on their jobs.

#3 TurnerNation on 09.15.22 at 1:56 pm

#54 Brian on 09.14.22 at 6:35 pm
A Major Economic Powerhouse (Germany) is Crumbling and is On the Brink of Collapse

^^ In WW2 the main players were Italy and Germany. Since March 2020 the main players are…Italy and Germany. WW3 repeats this time.


Ooof my unsecured LOC indicates an 11% rate. Bet this will near 15% in the coming years, almost credit card level. Luckily its balance reads $0.00

——-
–We were to be so healthy! All those mandates and rules. How can this be. Muh Hospital Capacity?

https://rmx.news/article/mysterious-increase-in-deaths-across-europe/
Mysterious increase in deaths across Europe
Scientists and data specialists are puzzled by the growing increase in deaths recorded in Europe

—- The “Rules”, unleashed, were designed to destroy our systems. Just another day in a Former First World Country. Every system designed to protect us was turned against us. As noted in 2020

https://www.cp24.com/news/average-wait-times-for-er-patients-to-get-admitted-reach-new-yearly-high-in-july-1.6069188
Average wait times for patients being admitted to an Ontario hospital from an emergency room have reached levels not seen in the last year.

#4 604sam on 09.15.22 at 2:04 pm

I have a coworker who bought a townhouse in maple ridge at the absolute top and his mortgage payments go up something like 500$ with every 1% increase in the prime. He of course blames Trudeau and Biden. Wants to “abolish” the central bank. Loves PP.

His misfortunes have nothing to do with buying a house that’s 10x his salary, driving a brand new 70k car and his wife driving a brand new 60k car. All the while his household income is around 200k. Not to mention he has an ATV, motorcycle, etc. and he plans on getting a hot tub and pool and a whole bunch of other upgrades to his house…

Like I know this is purely anecdotal but it’s shocking how much some people live purely on credit. Every financial decision is made on the basis of “how much per month will this cost me”.

If economists tell us it’ll take a year for people to feel the burn of higher rates, then those who already feel a burn are going to get crushed.

It’s their own fault of course, but still I empathize.

#5 Quintilian on 09.15.22 at 2:09 pm

When the bubble bursts, nobody will want to be next to it holding a needle.

The Liberals, as other governments where RE bubbles exist, were hoping the black swan event (Covid or…) would have looked after the pesky problem.

As it turned out, instead the rescue stimulus pumped up the bubble even more.

Plan B:
Let the Central Bank, CMHC, OSFI, and the pumpers take the blame.
The Liberals- such operators, unlike the rural grade amateurs (you know who they are)

#6 PBrasseur on 09.15.22 at 2:16 pm

Not surprised about the FHSA which must be pretty complex to implement, after all you have a government, growing more incompetent by the day, that can’t even manage a passport office…

As for the stress test it is needed now more than ever, pulling it would be completely reckless.

From a friend well connected to the construction world in Québec, the only thing being built at the moment are rental apartments, anything else is dying fast.

#7 Captain Uppa on 09.15.22 at 2:22 pm

I have found that realtors I have as acquaintances are all of a sudden slipping their new listings into our conversations. One even sent me his new listing for no reason whatsoever. He never did that before.

It’s very weird.

#8 ogdoad on 09.15.22 at 2:32 pm

Sure is refreshing to walk around talking to people and have conversations other than housing…Victorians must be bored out of their minds and youtubing ‘how to be a better conversationalist’. Kelowna-ians?….well, no one really cared anyway…Shame on you for buying there in the first place…

That, and it actually takes a bit of energy and athleticism to walk around with your noses up in the air all the time (respect). The realization that the world consists of other things….like humans? SYSTEM OVERLOAD!!

Oh the horror of the one asset in a one-asset strategy descending so…quickly….like ripping a band-aid off…nothing but pain and remorse…and no one to help (tears)

Except me!! I can relieve you of A) your anthropophobia and 2) your hubrisness…its a 3 step process! Although, step 2 defn gets…well, lets just say there’s kissing involved…but not on the lips (waiver needs to be signed first – for my safety, not yours…just sayin’)…

When you’re ready – [email protected]$$.com for further info!

Og

#9 Timmy on 09.15.22 at 2:33 pm

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/06/09/air-starts-to-seep-out-of-the-bubbly-canadian-property-market

“At the same time, though, Canada has vulnerabilities. Household debt is worryingly high: about 185% of disposable income. Given that backdrop, falling house prices could deal a big blow to consumer confidence and weigh on spending more generally. Canada may not be on thin ice. But it is skating into hazardous territory. “

#10 Søren Angst on 09.15.22 at 2:34 pm

#59 Bdwy on 09.14.22 at 7:10 pm

Trades usually posted in real time(ish)
Ytd over 10% with a Supreme bone head trade (loss of 7%) … Don’t work for nobody but me.

——————-

Good to read not the only investor here with head above water YTD.

My TWTR purchase at $50/share 2.3X more Supreme than your bone head trade ($41.90 Sep 14, 7:55:21 PM UTC-4) = -16.2% to date.

Also good who you work for. Me too though a retired Paleo.

Thank you Bdwy.

#11 Dave on 09.15.22 at 2:36 pm

RE
We’ll continue to monitor that for you. But here’s a glimpse. In Kelowna, for example, this report: “We are almost half way through this crash and prices are expected to bottom in May of 2023 and then trade sideways for well over a decade.” The peak-to-trough average detached price that hit $1.26 million in March, 2022, would then be $786,000 next May. Ouch.

Kelowna is a fire pit. Who would move there with climate change, fires, smoke and temperatures increasing every year.

However, on Vancouver Island, prices have barely budged.

#12 Søren Angst on 09.15.22 at 2:37 pm

#4 604sam

The natural extension to what you so aptly (and correctly) described:

https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1570024272160256003

#13 The General on 09.15.22 at 2:41 pm

So, dump the stress test, says the Cartel? Who benefits? Not the average zombified house horny Canadian. Oh well, mabey they deserve each other.
And Faron proves once again, MENSA bragging and intelligence do not go hand in hand.

#14 Canadian Immigrant on 09.15.22 at 2:42 pm

Are you a realtor worried about the next Audi lease payment? Are you relieved to know the feds’ fancy new First Home Savings Plan is launching in a hundred days?

—-

NO. I’m a Canadian worried that Canada will fall apart after rebellion against Charles and the monarchy and invalidation of treaties that hold it all together.

How long do I have to renew my Canadian passport? 3 years? 5 years?

#15 Faron on 09.15.22 at 2:51 pm

#127 jess on 09.15.22 at 1:58 pm
awesome! misinfo from some of those “christian nationalists” are just so wrong.

I saw that too. Small race in a liberal town, but I do love to see it.

Here’s hoping that the Dobbs decision has awakened the majority of voters who stand for women’s rights.

#16 Søren Angst on 09.15.22 at 2:52 pm

Best honest Realtor Tweet to me of the month incl. Bankruptcy guy Scott Terrio’s 1st Comment:

https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1570441642620125186

If 2nd Qtr shed + $400M in RE value in Canada then Garth nailed it today with:

Alas, we have but begun.

#17 Brandon on 09.15.22 at 2:53 pm

Hey Garth, great article.

I’m wondering what service you’re using for the Kelowna report? Is it Edge Realty Analytics (I think they used to be RE Analytics) or is it another source?

Thank you.

#18 A J on 09.15.22 at 2:54 pm

A lack of accountability is poisoning the minds of our society. People constantly trying to blame someone/anyone for a situation they put themselves in. It’s a recipe leading to a rise in right-wing populist rhetoric from politicians who parrot blame on the establishment and current politicians because it makes voters feel better to throw blame on anyone but themselves. PP being the current talking head throwing around blame to rally those drowning in debt and those who hate Trudeau. People needing someone to blame for their bad choices and woes in life. Every interest rate hike, these people see it as a personal attack from Trudeau’s Liberals on their bank accounts. We’re all feeling the pinch, but some of us refuse to illicit anger towards others for our own financial decisions. I can imagine all those people who decided buying an RV or boat during a global pandemic are feeling pretty blamey right now. I respect those though that instead of wallowing in self pity and pointing the finger, they get pro-active and start adjusting to their new reality. It’s easy to get angry and blame others. Harder to look inward, blame yourself, and get to work.

#19 Bezengy on 09.15.22 at 2:56 pm

In summary, the industry is still waiting for further guidance from the CRA to begin this process so……..

…….so don’t hold your breath. There is no way the CRA can keep up with Trudeau and his team of bureaucratic spendaholics and all their freebies. Working for for CRA has to be an absolute nightmare. Pretty sure 99 percent of their employees have quietly quit a long time ago. Why would they even bother trying to catch up knowing the next Trudeau giveaway is just around the corner. “Just throw in on the pile boss, and I’ll get to it when I get to it”

#20 TurnerNation on 09.15.22 at 2:57 pm

All over the world our rulers gonna freeze us out this winter. Back to the stone ages we go. There’s a war on, you know.

ALBANY — Utility giant National Grid is urging its upstate customers to brace for much higher heating costs once temperatures plunge.
National Grid’s latest pricing forecast predicts its natural gas customers will see a 39% jump in heating costs this winter. (lockportjournal.com)

—- Comrade you wish to actually see a doktor???

https://www.blogto.com/radar/2022/09/why-some-walk-clinics-still-arent-in-person-visits-ontario/
Leslieville Medical Centre and Warden Woods Medical Centre are among some of the clinics that are still not available for in-person appointments.
According to the Ontario Medical Association, one of the reasons why physicians are not being pushed to do in-person appointments is because of patient backlogs

—–
Control over Feeding is permanent. All due to ‘Climate’ now that Corvid is winding down

. Dutch city becomes the first in the world to ban MEAT adverts. Councillors agreed the ban in November but officially notified ad agencies today. Comes as Dutch farmers protest plans to cut the sector to meet emissions target . (dailymail.co.uk)

#21 Caffeine Monkey on 09.15.22 at 3:02 pm

604sam: “His misfortunes have nothing to do with buying a house that’s 10x his salary, driving a brand new 70k car and his wife driving a brand new 60k car. All the while his household income is around 200k. Not to mention he has an ATV, motorcycle, etc. and he plans on getting a hot tub and pool and a whole bunch of other upgrades to his house…”
——
This is commonplace. Everyone wants to keep up with the Joneses. Well, it turns out that the Joneses have barely paid down any principal on their multiple mortgages, have two car payments that are about to balloon, and don’t sleep much at night anymore.

#22 baloney Sandwitch on 09.15.22 at 3:04 pm

“How did the bubble burst?”
“Two ways,” Gradually, then suddenly.”

These lines, paraphrased from Ernest Hemingway’s novel The Sun Also Rises, reveal a lot about human nature when it comes to success and failure. There’s pain and shock when the world collapses beneath our feet. Then we realise on reflection that this outcome was quite predictable. Fortunately for us, Garth has been telling us that for many years now and none of the regular readers of the blog should be surprised. Thank you, Garth.

#23 Remax Star on 09.15.22 at 3:07 pm

DELETED

#24 Squire on 09.15.22 at 3:07 pm

#3 TurnerNation on 09.15.22 at 1:56 pm
#54 Brian on 09.14.22 at 6:35 pm
A Major Economic Powerhouse (Germany) is Crumbling and is On the Brink of Collapse
————————————
Europe is a mess. Germany will soon have to choose between supporting the west against Russia and it’s own economy. The world order exists because of America after WW2. This is all ending and many countries will suffer. Japan is already on board with USA. Keep watching Ukraine because that is Russia’s last war if the west succeeds.
By this autumn we will know at what level the foods stocks are at but on thing for sure is, there will be famine in different countries by the winter.
Be thankful you life in North America. Globalization is over and the time of abundance is over. It’s all downhill now for China. The largest demographic change in human history is upon them. Same with Russia but to lesser extend and they both know it too. This is a now or never war for Russia.

#25 "NUTS!" on 09.15.22 at 3:08 pm

I would never ‘wish’ harm to anyone, financial or otherwise, however, when the financially ignorant members of society abuse the system by gorging on cheap credit, then there needs to be a cleansing. It’s healthy for the system, albeit painful for the few. Unfortunately it appears it’s now become more than a few.

#26 Søren Angst on 09.15.22 at 3:18 pm

Mind you, this is gut shot Twitter but SOMETHING is happening.

It seems Cdns have had enough of Trudeau and his woke ways and dividing Cdns. Samplings below.

Salt of the Earth Farmer
https://twitter.com/v12farmcat/status/1570165853743906820

Your everyday 🍁 extremists
https://twitter.com/Bhavik0880/status/1570243437890539521
https://twitter.com/CaptnJabberJaws/status/1570375134116196352
https://twitter.com/10th_PLAGUE/status/1570273984553562113

Extremist Moms, Dads
https://twitter.com/LFSLLBHons/status/1570300866950995971
https://twitter.com/piker316/status/1570271927868035072
https://twitter.com/saskatchewan_in/status/1570386881304760327

[latter, heartbreak of a read]

Racist, misogynistic terrorists
https://twitter.com/august__wolf/status/1570432462374973440

——————–

And the Tweets keep on coming as I am typing. Effective.

Put a face to the words of Trudeau.

Whomever came up with this, NICELY DONE. Indeed.

#27 Mr Fox on 09.15.22 at 3:25 pm

I hope OSFI won’t give up, but something tells me they will eventually…
I still see all my friends/co-workers RE horny, talking about how they are gonna wait a little for the rates to stabilize and buy a house/rental property. This tells me that the house lust didn’t go anywhere, and that the buyers sitting on the sidelines are just waiting to jump in. Let’s hope the rates will rise so much that this lust will end very fast.

#28 IHCTD9 on 09.15.22 at 3:29 pm

Makes sense that the OSFI isn’t budging. If their job is to protect the banking system, why would they let more “less-secure” buyers thru the door right while the BoC is turning up the heat? If anything, they might consider making it even more difficult to qualify. The last thing we need is a slew of new homeowners who can’t come up with the monthly.

#29 I’m stupid on 09.15.22 at 3:31 pm

Hi Garth

Have you heard of ourboro? I heard the commercial and was curious so I tried to find an actual contact to read the fine print but couldn’t which tells me it’s probably worse then a reverse mortgage.

#30 Schadenfreude on 09.15.22 at 3:32 pm

I was under the suspicion that the stress tests were just another pretend gimmick the banksters were using to make themselves believe the unsustainable credit market they could attract. I still see the average over-leveraged Canadian now, just as before the plandemic, scurrying around impatiently and stressed to the max lifestyles.
Same as it ever was….

#31 Faron on 09.15.22 at 3:35 pm

#12 The General on 09.15.22 at 2:41 pm

MENSA bragging

LOL, cute that you actually fell for that and I’m touched that you think Imight qualify. I’m not in MENSA. Sounds kinda boring TBH when there are conservative fallicies to idly flick at.

#32 Reality is stark on 09.15.22 at 3:36 pm

A 50% peak to trough real estate drop is a slaughtering no matter how you slice it.
This was easy to predict.
A one asset strategy is not a financial plan.
From a social perspective the fallout has unprecedented ramifications as young single females entered the market in extraordinary numbers.
When your son incurs a $500,000 loss you tell him to suck it up “Ace” you’ve got 80 hour weeks for the next 15 years.
My guess is you won’t be using that line on your daughter.
Financial imprudence has ramifications, and they aren’t pretty.
I don’t even want to get into the idiocy of the typical Canadian not having enough US dollar exposure.

#33 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.15.22 at 3:39 pm

#15 Dolce
Dolce,
So you are submitting that Twitter is the new “The Media is the Message”?
Well, maybe you and Turner Nation can stop watching Foxnews and get it straight from the horse’s mouth.

#34 IHCTD9 on 09.15.22 at 3:40 pm

#20 Søren Angst on 09.15.22 at 3:18 pm

And the Tweets keep on coming as I am typing. Effective.

Put a face to the words of Trudeau.

Whomever came up with this, NICELY DONE. Indeed.
____

Those were great :).

I want one of those “Honk Honk” shirts haha

#35 OK, Doomer on 09.15.22 at 3:41 pm

26 Mr Fox on 09.15.22 at 3:25 pm
I hope OSFI won’t give up, but something tells me they will eventually…
I still see all my friends/co-workers RE horny, talking about how they are gonna wait a little for the rates to stabilize and buy a house/rental property. This tells me that the house lust didn’t go anywhere, and that the buyers sitting on the sidelines are just waiting to jump in. Let’s hope the rates will rise so much that this lust will end very fast.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It takes a while for the psychology to change. The pain has just started. Wait until the New Year.

#36 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 09.15.22 at 3:42 pm

Enjoy the next year, and then the next decade, all you realtor shysters!

#37 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.15.22 at 3:42 pm

#15 Dolce
Dolce,
So you are submitting that Twitter is the new “The Media is the Message”?
Well, maybe you and Turner Nation can stop watching Foxnews and get it straight from the horse’s mouth.
———————-
Should be #25 Dolce

#38 Penny Henny on 09.15.22 at 3:45 pm

#56 Faron on 09.14.22 at 6:45 pm
#40 Yukon Elvis on 09.14.22 at 5:20 pm

You should be in a SE Asian jail “if you know what I mean”. Frankly, seeing that 3/4 of your comments are “Faron needs meds” says way more about you than me.
///////////////

Yeah Yukon!
You should say instead “Faron should be taking his meds”.

#39 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.15.22 at 3:47 pm

Re: Picture
A very well camouflaged dog in a sheep’s clothing.
Watch out, squirrels!

#40 @J on 09.15.22 at 3:50 pm

I’m somewhat of an (unabashed) geek. Recent posts remind me of a book I enjoyed called “Tipping Point” from Malcom Gladwell. It’s basically about how certain small actions can lead to important large changes.

The themes being discussed here such as the increase in rates, decrease in home values, and change in employment patterns all have these tipping points. If we can accurately predict these points of no return, then individuals and society in general can benefit greatly.

I just skimmed a recent paper from Ott et al. that describes an AI algorithm and the claim is that they can predict these tipping points in many cases. They get good results even with noisy data. Here is an article about it:

https://www.quantamagazine.org/ai-algorithm-foresees-chaotic-tipping-points-20220915/

I think we may see more and more of this, from predicting when markets have topped or bottomed, to at what point various climate systems irreversibly change.

It seems as though if there are patterns in various systems, even if our human brains cannot pick them out, better and better machine learning algorithms can.

#41 Western "logic"...a worm has more intelligence on 09.15.22 at 3:54 pm

I’ve never in my life seen a “war” in which the people backing one side of it demand that the party on the other side continue to trade with them and not only that, but then attempt to put in price controls such that they demand not only the product but also what they pay for it.

Putin obviously thinks that’s crazy.

Now the West and Europe in particular get to choose: Either drop the sanctions or you get no gas.

I fail to understand how this cannot be viewed as an entirely-reasonable position unless your view is that Russia has no right of national sovereignty at all, including the natural resources that lay within her border and those that transit same..

#42 Cuttlefish of Cthulu on 09.15.22 at 3:56 pm

#13 Canadian Immigrant: “NO. I’m a Canadian worried that Canada will fall apart after rebellion against Charles and the monarchy and invalidation of treaties that hold it all together.”

Huh? When this country comes crashing down into 10 ready-to-absorb, state-sized pieces, it will be entirely the fault of republicans forcing us into an unnecessary and existential constitutional crisis, trying to fix something that isn’t broken.

#43 Ole Doberman on 09.15.22 at 3:58 pm

Anyone know what the scoop is on Calgary?

#44 Sarah on 09.15.22 at 4:03 pm

In all the personal mortgage/budgeting costs I’ve ever done as a prospective home owner, the stress test has never been the limiting factor on my budget. In fact, the bank would happily give me over 15% more than I should actually spend. I have very little personal costs (i.e. no car payments, no student loans, cheap lifestyle…) but I would have to give up wifi, meat, occasional long weekend road trips, and any sort of savings to be able to afford the mortgage the bank wants to give me. I think the stress test protects people from their own inability to budget or the hope that their house is their retirement plan. If the +2% is removed, the 35% GDS and 42% TDS should be lowered.

#45 AM in MN on 09.15.22 at 4:18 pm

#19 TurnerNation on 09.15.22 at 2:57 pm
All over the world our rulers gonna freeze us out this winter. Back to the stone ages we go. There’s a war on, you know.

ALBANY — Utility giant National Grid is urging its upstate customers to brace for much higher heating costs once temperatures plunge.
National Grid’s latest pricing forecast predicts its natural gas customers will see a 39% jump in heating costs this winter. (lockportjournal.com)

————————————————–

Or… maybe there will be some political change?

Upstate NY sits on huge natural gas reserves, but there are drilling and pipeline bans that make it all off-limits.

NYC gets its electric power from over 90% natural gas, with one more 1000MW reactor at Indian Point to be shut down.

There isn’t any basic need in N. America that is in shortage unless a left wing govt. caused it.

If you vote Dem, or Lib/NDP, you have no right to moan about costs, crime or other societal disfunction. Just don’t move to Florida to escape the mess you made and then start voting for the same disaster!

#46 Doing my Part on 09.15.22 at 4:22 pm

Another dreamer stating Vancouver Island prices haven’t gone down, must have bought at the peak and is trying to convince himself and his wife that they aren’t underwater.
It isn’t different this time.

#47 Observer on 09.15.22 at 4:22 pm

#21 baloney Sandwitch on 09.15.22 at 3:04 pm
“How did the bubble burst?”
“Two ways,” Gradually, then suddenly.”

These lines, paraphrased from Ernest Hemingway’s novel The Sun Also Rises, reveal a lot about human nature when it comes to success and failure. There’s pain and shock when the world collapses beneath our feet. Then we realise on reflection that this outcome was quite predictable

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Like the inevitable, disastrous fallout from climate change as we continue to cause it.

#48 twisted_sisters on 09.15.22 at 4:30 pm

Someone please explain this to me: How could anyone have predicted the unsustainable peak of avg detached in 2020 to reach $1.26M?? So how can anyone (RE Analytics in this case) predict that by May 2023 the trough will be attained?? What kind of asinine prediction is this?
The trough will be reached when the trough is reached. Just as stocks don’t typically go to zero, they test close to it. Wasn’t the US housing market crash an indication of this? A Florida property 2 streets away from the A1A on a beautiful street of manicured yards that had sold in ’05 for $560k to a greater fool, was purchased for $90k in ’09. That very same house cost $177k to build in 1995.

#49 Faron on 09.15.22 at 4:47 pm

#25 Søren Angst on 09.15.22 at 3:18 pm

Weird how an app/platform designed to silo people has caused you to think that there’s a massive anti Trudeau movement.

#50 DON on 09.15.22 at 4:59 pm

#10 Dave on 09.15.22 at 2:36 pm
RE
We’ll continue to monitor that for you. But here’s a glimpse. In Kelowna, for example, this report: “We are almost half way through this crash and prices are expected to bottom in May of 2023 and then trade sideways for well over a decade.” The peak-to-trough average detached price that hit $1.26 million in March, 2022, would then be $786,000 next May. Ouch.

Kelowna is a fire pit. Who would move there with climate change, fires, smoke and temperatures increasing every year.

However, on Vancouver Island, prices have barely budged.

******
Have you ever been though a slow down / recession while living on Vancouver Island?

#51 @J on 09.15.22 at 4:59 pm

#42 Ole Doberman on 09.15.22 at 3:58 pm
Anyone know what the scoop is on Calgary?
—————————–

Calgary seasonally adjusted avg home price down 9.2% since the peak.

Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-august-housing-1.6583733

#52 Paul on 09.15.22 at 5:00 pm

Are you a realtor worried about the next Audi lease payment?
———————————————————————————————

No I’m one of the of the silly people that pay as l go.

#53 Paddy on 09.15.22 at 5:04 pm

Peter Routledge says the stress test is gnna stay…just like Tiff said rates are gnna remain low for years…I don’t believe anything these guys say…give it a few more rate hike announcements and see where the stress test is by then

#54 Steven Rowlandson on 09.15.22 at 5:06 pm

It is human greed for profits that jacked up home prices to be sure but that isn’t the only factor involved. Without relaxed lending standards and rock bottom interest rates it would be more difficult for the excesses and crimes of the market to have occurred. To correct this down payments have to be raised to at least 25% , the 3 years pay rule based on one income only must be enforced, capital gains exemptions and mortgage insurance rescinded and minimum mortgage rates set at lets say 5% plus the real non hedonic rate of inflation.
If that is not sufficient to restore sanity to the market jack up the rate plus inflation number and the down payment requirement. This practice of using combined family income for home affordability calculations needs to be outlawed. Men’s income only since men tend to earn less than women. We need to have a level playing field and a disincentive to jack up prices.
Perhaps in time there will be more income freed up and or saved to support the real economy and quality of life.

#55 Shawn on 09.15.22 at 5:17 pm

Gift versus entitlement?

As Garth says, the First Time Home Buyers savings account thing is indeed a GIFT from the taxman. Other taxpayers must make up the lost tax revenue.

But how long before it will be considered an entitlement by those than can benefit? I’d day about 2 minutes after it is introduced.

RRSP accounts were a gift, now an entitlement.

Name any tax deduction. It’s now an entitlement.

The old age pension was a gift (no need to have ever paid a dime in taxes) now an entitlement.

Income Trusts were a gift. What an uproar when those were taken away.

TFSA are a gift. There was even an uproar of outrage on this very blog when the the raise to $10k was taken away and the size of the gift was merely brought back to its original size.

All regularly given gifts soon become entitlements.

#56 opee on 09.15.22 at 5:18 pm

With so many comments on RE, Like to Know those ads where the RE firm says they will buy your home, if they don’t sell it for you? Anyone know one of the greater fool who bought one of those?

#57 Grandv!ew on 09.15.22 at 5:19 pm

Any conversation that is focusing on the percent of real estate decline from the peak is false narrative.
Important statistic to watch and measure is how far are current prices from the mean. Time is coming (in the near future) where people will start talking more about it and realize it is the only statistic that matters.
With that said Kelowna average house $700K ?
Please…..based on an average(Kelowna) income it should be tops $350K. Someone (heck sometimes entire country) can choose to sideline the logic only for so long…..

#58 Shawn on 09.15.22 at 5:21 pm

Stress Test?

But surely it truly is an outage that when a mortgage renews you might be captive to your lender and can’t shop around because only then the stress test applies again. Is this true? What a gift for the banks if it is true.

#59 Love_The_Cottage on 09.15.22 at 5:27 pm

Fords solution in Ontario to the health care crisis is to send the most vulnerable to long care homes with no recourse.

Garth, where is your outrageous over this? You’re worried Trudeau is paying for dental care for children will increase inflation? Really?

#60 young & foolish on 09.15.22 at 5:30 pm

Since the beginning of this year real estate has declined by approx. 20% …. so have equities …. so have bonds.

Should we expect equities will be back up to new highs while real estate languishes over the next couple of years? Or is all this equally related to interest rates?

#61 NOSTRADAMUS on 09.15.22 at 5:35 pm

THE BLACK SWAN HAS LANDED.
Shortly, we will be inundated with what appears increasingly like a major outbreak of “Wishful Thinking”.
The Canadian Central Bank and the The OSFI are the dogs that only ever seemed to bark, they are now biting, chomping down hard. With interest rates on the rise, the real estate world is now in a very uncomfortable spot where little if any escape is available via new lending. Not much escape via higher valuations. Not much escape with new QE. Not much escape with more leverage. Not much escape by selling, (no buyers). Not much escape via a lower seller commission rate. Not much escape via the possibility of a mortgage moratorium. The reality for overindebted real estate holders today is that they stayed too long on board the Titanic, and now the life boats have all drifted away. The unsinkable has sank. They are now treading water, hoping to be rescued . This is a dangerous place to be as the sharks (bankers) are circling and will soon be picking off the weak swimmers first. Real estate is in a transition zone. This is the zone where rare events become typical. The Black Swan has landed.

#62 the Jaguar on 09.15.22 at 5:48 pm

@#42 Ole Doberman on 09.15.22 at 3:58 pm
Anyone know what the scoop is on Calgary? +++

I can give you my two cents based on observations & occasional chats with those close to the real estate industry.

There used to be someone on this blog who repeatedly posted that Calgary was the ‘New Detroit’. He clearly didn’t understand the character of this city. We aren’t quitters.

When oil tanked in 2015-2016 so did housing prices, and timing couldn’t have been worse as hundreds of ‘investor units’ in newly built condos (especially high rises in the Beltline area) were nearing completion, thus an immediate oversupply. Don’t need to detail the issues the city has dealt with since that time (empty office space, carpetbaggers moving back to their home provinces after leaving the keys to their Ford F150 in the ignition at the airport, etc. All well documented. )

In late 2021 and spring of 2022 there was a resurgence of interest in detached, semi-detached, townhouse stock. Many rumours that it was people from ‘other locales’ who were cashing out ( GTA/GVA). Something many don’t know about Alberta is the closing costs are extremely cheap, i.e. land titles charges. Rumour was, some were moving here from out of province due to ability to WFH and buy reasonably priced housing, but I suspect a significant number were speculators/investors (Fishman).

Currently the condo market appears to be hot, and I am advised it is related to interest rate hikes, i.e. peeps qualifying for lesser amounts, so forced to reduce their expectations.

What is obvious to the naked eye is a resurgence in construction and other activity. The first sign is always the license plates from out of province. Ontario, but especially BC where many trades people come from. The infamous “BC roofers”. The second sign is always the tandem trucks roaring around the city. There is just a palpable energy everywhere.

There have been quite a number of announcements about companies locating to Calgary. Tech companies. Oil and Gas is coming back, but they are treading lightly and carefully. Alberta has always attracted job seekers, tried to create a tax friendly environment for young families in a province with an incredible amount of natural beauty and recreation. Look up Banff, Jasper, Waterton National Park for starters. We are more diverse than most of the rest of the country realizes..

Last time I looked we were pulling our weight and contributing to GDP in this country. So to Mr. “Calgary is the new Detroit”, may I just say that the “reports of our demise have been greatly exaggerated”. Oh, ….and you’re a horse’s behind.

signed, the Jaguar (official junkyard dog protector and advocate of the great province of Alberta)

#63 Faron on 09.15.22 at 6:09 pm

#131 Covid Variant Math on 09.15.22 at 3:36 pm

they don’t have to answer my simple climate realted question.

Related…

When children ask me why trees are made of marshmallows, I first gently try to guide their understanding. If they persist, well, they are kids. I presume you are an adult, and gentle guidance is long gone. Your question has no merit and I am under no obligation to answer any questions let alone meritless ones.

#64 Faron on 09.15.22 at 6:13 pm

#131 Covid Variant Math on 09.15.22 at 3:36 pm

Also, when you come back at me after all these “wins” it kinda appears you are actually butthurt. Strike up a convo with Mr. lava tubes, else, take the medal I awarded you two days ago and go home. It’s nappy time.

#65 Stoph on 09.15.22 at 6:15 pm

#40 Western “logic”…a worm has more intelligence on 09.15.22 at 3:54 pm
I’ve never in my life seen a “war” in which the people backing one side of it demand that the party on the other side continue to trade with them and not only that, but then attempt to put in price controls such that they demand not only the product but also what they pay for it.

Putin obviously thinks that’s crazy.

Now the West and Europe in particular get to choose: Either drop the sanctions or you get no gas.

I fail to understand how this cannot be viewed as an entirely-reasonable position unless your view is that Russia has no right of national sovereignty at all, including the natural resources that lay within her border and those that transit same..

————————————

From what I understand this isn’t the entire Russian position. Putin has said that export reductions are due to not being able to obtain parts needed for maintenance due to western sanctions and not because gas exports have been weaponized. The west is calling BS.

No doubt that that trade has been weaponized by both Russia and the West. I guess we will see if either side follows through on their price cap threats.

#66 bdwy on 09.15.22 at 6:20 pm

#9 Søren Angst on 09.15.22 at 2:34 pm

My TWTR…= -16.2% to date.

——-

that 7% was of total portfolio.

ie 17% ytd became 10%. still feeling lucky.

////

headed to italy next month to check it out for bargain priced RE , thinking far south and Sicily, for a snowbird retreat. stops in portugal, spain and greece for comparison purposes. I drove my elderly neighbour, Giovanni Berlusconi to the doc this morning, guess which one he suggested???

how cold/wet is it in february in your town?

#67 Reality Check on 09.15.22 at 6:20 pm

Here’s what the local Chief Wizard, John DiMichele, had to say:

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) should weigh in on whether the current stress test remains applicable. Is it reasonable to test home buyers at two percentage points above the current elevated rates……?
—————————-

Jokes on John. The current “elevated” rates are barely at mid-range of what mortgages rates have averaged for the past 70 years.

Get used to 5-7% mortgages – that’s the normal now.

#68 ogdoad on 09.15.22 at 6:22 pm

Too to the core?

Sure is refreshing to walk around talking to people and have conversations on things other than housing…Victorians must be bored out of their minds and youtubing ‘how to be a better conversationalist’. Kelowna-ians?….well, no one really cared anyway…Shame on you for buying there in the first place…

That, and it actually takes a bit of energy and athleticism to walk around with your noses up in the air all the time (respect). The realization that the world consists of other things….like humans? SYSTEM OVERLOAD!!

Oh the horror of the one asset in a one-asset strategy descending so…quickly….like ripping a band-aid off…nothing but pain and remorse…and no one to help (tears)

Except me!! I can relieve you of A) your Anthropophobia and 2) your hubris…its a 3 step process! Although, step 2 defn gets…well, lets just say there’s kissing involved…but not on the lips (waiver needs to be signed first – for my safety, not yours…just sayin’)…

You know where to find me!

Og

#69 Faron on 09.15.22 at 6:33 pm

OpEx, fragile markets, huge FX vol, weak VIX response (complacent). SPX near 3800 is unstable. Powell will be on a fishing line thin tight rope next week at his press conference. Almost as fun to watch as the Jays whipping the Rays.

#70 Don Guillermo on 09.15.22 at 6:33 pm

Hahaha, I knew Dr Faron would have plenty of time for another rant or two. I imagine business hours would drag a bit without this blog. I hope this doesn’t distract from your new books though. Remember, if monday’s a holiday in BC, we’ll expect you to teach us everything Russian on tuesday.

#71 Wrk.dover on 09.15.22 at 6:41 pm

If you look into it, you will see the bar to join Mensa is surprisingly low!

#72 Yukon Elvis on 09.15.22 at 6:48 pm

#63 Faron on 09.15.22 at 6:09 pm
#131 Covid Variant Math on 09.15.22 at 3:36 pm

they don’t have to answer my simple climate realted question.

Related…

When children ask me why trees are made of marshmallows, I first gently try to guide their understanding.
+++++++++++++++
Those kids are stoned Bubba. Stop giving them your meds.

#73 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.15.22 at 6:52 pm

#65 Stoph on 09.15.22 at 6:15 pm
#40 Western “logic”…a worm has more intelligence on 09.15.22 at 3:54 pm
I’ve never in my life seen a “war” in which the people backing one side of it demand that the party on the other side continue to trade with them and not only that, but then attempt to put in price controls such that they demand not only the product but also what they pay for it.
—————————-
That’s why some people say: “All wars are bankers wars”.
Or “Never let a war stay in the way of making money”.

#74 chalkie on 09.15.22 at 6:56 pm

Nearly 1 in 4 homeowners say they’d have to sell their home if interest rates rise more, according to a Manulife survey

I wonder what the majority of owners are really feeling right now, this survey was done by Manulife in April 2022, this is before the extra four months of interest rates and home price decrease have been tacked onto their financial situation.
Low interest rates during the pandemic fueled a surge in real estate demand that led housing prices to soar.
Nearly one in four homeowners say they will have to sell their home if interest rates go up further, according to a new debt survey from Manulife Bank of Canada. (The rates have pushed higher by a great deal since this survey.)

The survey, conducted between April 14 and April 20, also found that 18 per cent of homeowners polled are already at a stage where they can’t afford their homes.
More than one in five Canadians expect rising interest rates to have a “significant negative impact” on their overall mortgage, debt and financial situation, the survey found.

I can’t help but feel sorry for a lot of these families that kept hearing and believed that Real Estate had nowhere to go but up. I have seen this house price runaway outcome a few times in my lifetime and I suspect in 5- or 10-years’ time, people will not learn from their mistakes and do it all over again, until then Realtors, McDonald’s and Burger King are looking for people with fancy cars, they like the workers image on their lots, it helps to sell burgers.

#75 Faron on 09.15.22 at 7:04 pm

#71 Wrk.dover on 09.15.22 at 6:41 pm
If you look into it, you will see the bar to join Mensa is surprisingly low!

Still sounds boring.

#72 Yukon Elvis on 09.15.22 at 6:48 pm

Kids…giving them your meds

Hmmm, something like that wouldn’t even begin to occur to me. But it did occur to you… *shudders*. Gross “if you know what I mean”.

#76 Covid Variant Math on 09.15.22 at 7:06 pm

Faron,

You seem to be turning yourself inside out trying to (not)answer my simple question.

Glad my question made you feel uncomfortable. That’s the first step to breaking the chains. Keep being uncomfortable. Eventually you’ll understand.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22 at 7:20 pm

Was there an attempt on Putin’s life?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjMqIOW95f6AhUJBDQIHY3EDAkQvOMEKAB6BAgFEAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tribuneindia.com%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fin-an-assassination-attempt-vladimir-putins-car-attacked-432022&usg=AOvVaw0k9nDSGnrILaFzDOwWtTPc

Just after ANOTHER Putin ally died of “suffocation”?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiQs-jU95f6AhXCI30KHS9RBLcQFnoECAgQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fca.movies.yahoo.com%2Fanother-putin-ally-dead-suffocating-182142397.html&usg=AOvVaw3hVM6Wf_ROLd1wJvMOrLdO

Friend or enemy…..it aint safe to be anywhere near Vlad the Impaled.

#78 BW on 09.15.22 at 7:20 pm

With the US inflation number, I expect to see .75 and second .75 after. Until US inflation is under control, the fed will keep hiking until they start seeing a turn. US Fed is the dog that wags the tail. CoB is the tail.

#79 Shawn on 09.15.22 at 7:32 pm

There are no stupid opinions

Just stupid people…

#80 Doug t on 09.15.22 at 7:39 pm

I fear that certain realtors are holed up in a secret realtors lab somewhere on the outskirts of hamilton – hard at work with test tubes and beakers bubbling away over blue flames concocting a new PANDEMIC- I want TurnerNation to get on the case – COME ON BRO counting on you ….love that guy

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22 at 7:42 pm

@#74 chalkie
‘Nearly 1 in 4 homeowners say they’d have to sell their home if interest rates rise more…”
+++

Im surprised Canadian fiscal ignorance is that low.
I expected 2 in 4 homeowners filling their pantaloons with poop over rising rates…. or possibly 3 in 4.
Lets have that survey again in March after the Liberals roll out another doozy annual budget of billion dollar handouts to the “modest income” folk…..
( Can anyone explain what “modest income ‘ equates to? 40k per year? 50? 80?)
Reminds me of the very vague but important sounding “assault style” rifle ban…..

#82 Nonplused on 09.15.22 at 7:46 pm

The FHBA is not going to offer any short term benefit to the housing market anyway. It is a SAVINGS program. Thus, any serious impact of this thing is years away. And that is if we assume the people who might use it to any great extent weren’t already saving. It’s another typical government program: close to useless. Even the “tax free” investing part don’t mean much, since saving for a home isn’t usually “long term” like saving for retirement. There is the tax credit part, but most people who are still saving for their first home aren’t in a particularly high tax bracket anyway.

The people that will really benefit from this are those who are in a high tax bracket (making lots of dough), don’t own a home, and don’t plan to buy one anytime soon. They should use this program just for the tax break.

————————————

Real interest rates are still negative. At least when you compare CPI to the CB rate. That means there is still only one way for interest rates to go: Up!

Yes, house prices are weak and stocks sold off and bonds are down and the world is ending right in front of our very eyes. But asset prices are not in the CPI (as well they should not be). “Owner’s equivalent rent” and just simple “rent” are, so until those stop going up, none of the lights on Tiff’s dashboard are going to go green and indicate it’s safe to let up on the brakes. The tightening will continue until inflation is tamed.

————————————

Why would they remove the stress test just when the very stresses that it is supposed to protect against are occurring? That seems like a very Darwin (as in “Darwin awards”) thing to do.

————————————

It may be that “quiet quitting” and “quiet fired” are the same thing. The boss is just waiting until the organization has adapted to your lack of impact, then he/she/them/Xe will make your life increasingly miserable, and then hopefully you will quit so they don’t have to pay severance.

So the cycle works like this: First, you “quiet quit”, after all you aren’t getting all the money, power, and glory implied by all your participation trophies of yore. In response your boss stops assigning you important and critical tasks. You don’t get to work on high profile projects. You slowly become “Wally” and any projects you get are those which were doomed to fail anyway. Meanwhile “Alice” and “Asok” get all the interesting stuff. And your vacation requests? Denied. Time off to coach soccer? Denied. Lunch with the boss? Don’t think so. You’ll get treated like the door mat you are, because nobody cares if you leave.

Oh and as you can tell by my analogy, Dilbert has known about “quiet quitting” since 1989. It’s been a core theme of the strip all these many years. It’s not new. Don’t be Wally.

Instead of “quiet quitting”, become an “ESG” consultant, like Dogbert. Of course, like Dogbert, you will have to have a complete lack of morals. Otherwise it won’t work.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22 at 7:47 pm

Speaking of Monday.
Are you “logging off” on Monday Garth?
No updates or changes?
Regardless of the Federal Employees day off.
Time for reflection.

#84 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22 at 7:53 pm

@#80 Doug t
“I fear that certain realtors are holed up in a secret realtors lab somewhere on the outskirts of hamilton – hard at work with test tubes and beakers bubbling away over blue flames ”
+++
The only thing Canadian Realtors want a vaccine to kill is the monster called Zillow.

Lets see how popular Realtors are when Canadian home buyers take a bath in the next 6-24 months.

#85 Jeff Gundlach on 09.15.22 at 7:53 pm

Well, the big bad real estate crash that everybody has spoken about eventually happening has finally arrived.

#86 Doing my Part on 09.15.22 at 7:55 pm

Is it just me, or has F gone “off leash” without SA to pull the choke chain.

#87 Evan Siddall on 09.15.22 at 8:04 pm

Market entry starts with a condo or a townhome, then a trade into some thing bigger.

As soon as income falls short of being approved for the cheapest product on the market – a condo – the entire market freezes over. It starts at the top (the most expensive) and ends at the bottom (the cheapest).

How affordable is a typical condo these days?

#88 Faron on 09.15.22 at 8:05 pm

#76 Covid Variant Math on 09.15.22 at 7:06 pm

Yes, sometimes laughing uncontrollably at someone (you, AM in MN, The General etc) is uncomfortable.

Sorry, what was your question again? Was it the alien model one or the e=mc^2 one? Srsly, I forgot.

#89 Faron on 09.15.22 at 8:06 pm

#79 Shawn on 09.15.22 at 7:32 pm
There are no stupid opinions

Just stupid people…

And people who can’t read, right Shawn?

#90 Randy on 09.15.22 at 8:09 pm

Your Property Taxes = the rent on the land that you don’t own…

An escalating Mortgage that you can never pay off…

#91 RIP Elias "The Spartan" Theodorou (The King of Mississauga) on 09.15.22 at 8:15 pm

How can anyone afford Canada anymore?

#92 Yukon Elvis on 09.15.22 at 8:28 pm

#75 Faron on 09.15.22 at 7:04 pm
#71 Wrk.dover on 09.15.22 at 6:41 pm
If you look into it, you will see the bar to join Mensa is surprisingly low!

Still sounds boring.

#72 Yukon Elvis on 09.15.22 at 6:48 pm

Kids…giving them your meds

Hmmm, something like that wouldn’t even begin to occur to me. But it did occur to you… *shudders*. Gross “if you know what I mean”.
++++++++++++++
Nobody knows wtf you mean Bubba. Go ask Nurse Diesel for a pill.

#93 conan on 09.15.22 at 8:38 pm

We might not be half way yet on the real estate correction. I can see this program getting delayed for over a year.

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22 at 8:42 pm

Liberal politician doesn’t know what “woke” means

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/liberal-minister-steven-guilbeault-says-he-doesnt-know-what-woke-means-heres-a-primer

“A preachy , identity obsessed, blowhard” gets my vote.

#95 Ray Skunk on 09.15.22 at 8:49 pm

A Trudeau election promise that fails to materialize? GTFO!

Sometimes the ever-increasing-in-size CRA “working” from home for the past two years has it’s benefits, after all.

#96 Irish Stew on 09.15.22 at 8:52 pm

Next few years might have a few homes on the market via bankruptcy…..regardless how much one wants to laugh at people for buying in high…..still a shame to see people lose so much.

#97 Faron on 09.15.22 at 8:57 pm

#92 Yukon Elvis on 09.15.22 at 8:28 pm
+
Nobody knows wtf you mean

Mmmmm, I bet some remember. I do, obvs, it was pretty gross. Would you like me to remind everyone?

#98 WTF on 09.15.22 at 9:00 pm

#62

Clearly you are enamored with Calgary. Good for you! I’m not but respect your decision to live there.

“We aren’t quitters.” you are suggesting Non Calgarians are……… Vancouver Halifax Toronto, all “quitters’?

“carpetbaggers moving back to their home provinces”

Presumably they did contribute to Calgary and Alberta while domiciled there? Maybe family commitments? Maybe a better job? Weather? Lack of water, trees?

The hubris is tiresome. Canadians across this country are just as industrious and love where they live. (like the average Albertan), no better no worse.

Unless you want to separate like your latest contribution to reasonable political discourse, Danielle Smith?

Give it a rest. The ROC will thank you. We wont have to roll our eyes at the nonsense

#99 OttawaMike on 09.15.22 at 9:03 pm

Expect Toronto to double development charges again to “help”the housing crisis.

#100 Bdwy on 09.15.22 at 9:16 pm

Fedex grim news leads equity futures lower.

June lows seem unavoidable.

Stocks challenging RE for biggest loser

#101 Faron on 09.15.22 at 9:26 pm

#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.29.21 at 4:01 pm
#33 Ustabe on 06.29.21 at 3:13 pm
#25 Yukon Elvis on 06.29.21 at 2:55 pm

…I like SE Asia this time of year cuz it is monsoon and typhoon season there. I miss that. And the girls are friendly too. If you know what I mean…….

wow.
————–
Thanks for pointing that out. I missed it.
This is a family blog, so I can’t say what I think

Still creepy AF. And you dreamed up drugging children today and you ad hominem attack people with mental health slurs. Bottom of the barrel.

#102 Yukon Elvis on 09.15.22 at 9:27 pm

#97 Faron on 09.15.22 at 8:57 pm
#92 Yukon Elvis on 09.15.22 at 8:28 pm
+
Nobody knows wtf you mean

Mmmmm, I bet some remember. I do, obvs, it was pretty gross. Would you like me to remind everyone?
++++++++++++
Go right ahead. And take the pill Bubba. Nurse Diesel has lots. Don’t make her sit on you like last time.

#103 Unacceptable Views on 09.15.22 at 9:38 pm

DELETED

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22 at 9:44 pm

Hmmmm.
The vaunted Canadian Health Care system gets another C- grade in BC.
192 overdose deaths in July in BC
But what is NEVER discussed is the unbelievable amount of time paramedics spend with over dose calls.
Ambulances sit and wait with revived drug addicts in the parking lots of most hospitals in the Lower Brainland like taxis outside a hotel on New Years eve…..
They cant discharge their drug addict patients until an ER Doctor signs off……..

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj-0ojjl5j6AhWbMDQIHRgQC_UQFnoECAQQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newwestrecord.ca%2Flocal-news%2Fformer-new-west-city-councillor-waits-two-hours-for-amublance-after-having-a-stroke-5765067%23%3A~%3Atext%3DFormer%2520New%2520West%2520city%2520councillor%2Cambulance%2520after%2520having%2520a%2520stroke%26text%3DA%2520former%2520New%2520Westminster%2520city%2Cmay%2520have%2520exacerbated%2520her%2520condition.&usg=AOvVaw3mWRKUrrDhU85wa0v_nAMk

A New West woman who lives less than 3 blocks from Royal Columbian Hospital in New Westminster waited 3 hours for an ambulance after suffering a stroke.
She is now partially paralyzed because she missed the “golden hour” for treatment.
3 blocks from a hospital and waited too long for an ambulance….. because ….they were busy.

Time to bump over dose calls to the bottom of the triage pile?

#105 Shawn on 09.15.22 at 9:55 pm

Tipping – A “third-rail” topic

I just saw a story that Canadians are getting fed up with higher and higher tipping suggestion on those payment terminals.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/now-15-per-cent-is-rude-tipping-fatigue-hits-customers-as-requests-rise-1.1819314

And we should be fed up. It’s bold and downright rude to ask for a tip. Would a server ever ask you to tip? Probably not. Would they suggest 25% to your face, probably not. But now we have these impersonal electronic begging machines boldly asking for 15 to 30%. Whatever happened to 10%?

And all kinds of business where we never tipped before are getting in on the act. Subway for one. My doggie daycare place for another.

Minimum wages have risen a LOT in Alberta and Ontario over the past few years. Yet we are supposed to tip ever higher?

If a tip is basically mandatory then it is basically extortion.

And who gets these tips? My family has run a restaurant for 50 years. Back in the day the tips were split evenly to all on shift. None for us as owners of course ever.

The notion that the person carrying the food to the table and asking “how are the first few bites” (gag) should get a higher share of the tip than the cooks is bizzare.

The notion that we should tip more if the food and booze is over-priced is also bizarre.

We need to reverse this trend.

Someone please open a restaurant chain that has higher prices and a no tipping policy.

In what other line of business would we openly allow cash kickbacks to the staff?

Should I bribe my car salesman with $400 cash so he can get me a better deal? It’s all bizarre.

Then there is the fact that tipping harkens back to the old master and slave days. And where (let’s face it) men can openly lay on the higher tips in return for skimpier outfits on the women servers and bit of flirting. And Women can do the same for hunky server guys although to a lesser extent.

Just pay people what they are worth. Give them profit sharing to ensure prompt friendly service etc.

Down with the electronic beggars.

I still pretty much do 20% at restaurants. But I’m in a position to afford it. I think younger people and those on tight budgets should feel perfectly okay to tip say 10%. And anyone suggesting they stay home if they can’t afford to tip is an A$$ in my opinion.

By the way the restaurant owner is probably not clearing anything close to 20% on the bottom line. So why would the staff get 20% of sales on top of their wages????

#106 miketheegineer on 09.15.22 at 10:00 pm

#66 bdwy

Property in Italy.

I am on your side. Some suggestions. (1) Hospital in the City you choose. (2) Walking distance to Bus, Train. (3) Near Hwy if having a car. (4) Shops and restaurants close by.

When the cash flow improves, I plan to spend some vacation time in Italy. 4 years, 2 weeks per year. One week in 8 areas. Then I will pick one. But likely rent for a bit, make sure it is the place to purchase. Property is difficult to sell in various places. It sits for a long time before selling. So if you change your mind, good luck selling. Also, if you are paying cash, likely easier. A friend of mine pruchased property, but needed loan for extensive renovations required….and had bank issues.

I sounds really nice, but there is alot to think about when relocating to Italy. My family is from Le Marche. The east coast has amazing beaches. Properties are 25k Euro to skys the limit. The advice given to me by my friends in Italy…if you buy a place, don’t get the $1 euro wonder. Unless you plan to live there and oversee the renos. Better to purchase a place that you can immediately live in with minor updates you can do over time. Of course, likely you have huge amounts of cashola hanging out of your wallet and can afford to reno a big old farm house on hill someplace. I wish you the best of luck and if we run into each other there…the expresso is on me. Garth can come too.

#107 the Jaguar on 09.15.22 at 10:01 pm

@#98 WTF on 09.15.22 at 9:00 pm++
Uh…….yeah. I am familiar with your previous posts and dislike of any pro-Alberta comments I could care less. Plenty of pro Alberta peeps on this site. I stand with them.

[email protected] are suggesting Non Calgarians are……… Vancouver Halifax Toronto, all “quitters’?++
–Not at all, but the reference was specifically for the guy who referred to Calgary as the “new Detroit”, i.e. not worth staying or supporting. Why you draw the immediate reference that ‘sticking it out in Calgary’ reflects on other cities and it’s inhabitants is on you. Your immediate reaction that celebrating one thing brings all others down says everything about you. Feeling a little insecure or inferior?

@“carpetbaggers moving back to their home provinces”. -Presumably they did contribute to Calgary and Alberta while domiciled there? Maybe family commitments? Maybe a better job? Weather? Lack of water, trees?++
–Carpetbaggers is a reference to “opportunistic people’ who come and go in economic good times onlly. If they contribute it is in the ‘short term’ versus the “long term community contribution’ . Go ahead and defend those who cut and run and leave their landlords and creditors in the lurch if you want to defend it. “family commitments, lack of water, trees’? Kind of like the ones that like the ones that grow in our National Parks? Why so prickly when the attibutes of one region are celebrated versus others? Is that the best you’ve got? Pathetic. Family commitments? So stay where you are. Nobody is missing you.

@ if “Canadians across this country are just as industrious and love where they live. ” Then why are they constantly washing up on Alberta’s beach everytime fortunes favour them? If they are so industrious why are so reliant on other provincial payments and why do they need to send their young out West ? Saying “Canadians across this country are just as industrious” is a load of B.S. The only way to test that theory would be to cut off regional handouts and seasonal pogey and then measure the fallout. Then you might finally gain an understanding of what the term “carpetbagger” really means.

I don’t need to give anything a “rest”. Oh…and indeed I am enamored with Calgary. It’s a lot like Okotoks, but in a bigger way. Aren’t you the same guy who sometimes says nice things about that place? It’s not the message, but the messenger. At least have the gonads to own up to that.

#108 FHSA ? on 09.15.22 at 10:12 pm

If the FHSA takes flight I wonder if we’ll be able to place the $8,000 amount before line 23400 (net income before adjustments) on our tax returns similar to the RRSP deduction on line 20800 ? If this is the case then the FHSA can also be used as a tax shifting tool in a higher income year to lower something like OAS clawback for example. Even if you don’t want to buy a house it will be still worth considering.

#109 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.15.22 at 10:23 pm

#105 Shawn
Tipping.
I stay away from establishments that have too much staff.
More staff usually means more tip to share, and therefore higher tips are expected. Earls comes to mind.
Asian (Chinese) are my go to restaurants.
Food tastes better and is cheaper.
Portions are bigger.
Bigger selection.
Expected tips are lower.
Plates come when they’re ready (you’re supposed to share)
Service is not as attentive, but I come for the food, don’t need the server asking every 5 minutes how my meal is.
Someone in the industry told me that is to make sure that customers don’t eat all the meal and then complain and want a refund.
I’ve seen it happening.
Sometimes they eat all the meat and then complain that it came without meat.

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22 at 10:26 pm

@#105 Shawn
“Then there is the fact that tipping harkens back to the old master and slave days. And where (let’s face it) men can openly lay on the higher tips in return for skimpier outfits on the women servers and bit of flirting”

+++
Well.
Something worse than that happened in Tofino and they shut down a fishing derby and NO-ONE…not even the cops are talking about it.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwibpt2WoZj6AhXzFjQIHYL8BOsQvOMEKAB6BAgEEAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.timescolonist.com%2Flocal-news%2Ftofino-resort-cancels-fishing-derby-after-highly-inappropriate-behaviour-at-event-5823339&usg=AOvVaw1lseC1XQYp9N_mIlhR_JzF

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.15.22 at 10:45 pm

Get used to more “shooting stars” courtesy of Elon
—————————————
Fireball over Scotland and NI was likely ‘space junk’ from Elon Musk satellite, say astronomers
UK Meteor Network says object in night sky most likely a deorbiting satellite from SpaceX project

#112 Don Guillermo on 09.15.22 at 11:51 pm

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22

Something worse than that happened in Tofino and they shut down a fishing derby and NO-ONE…not even the cops are talking about it.
@@@@@#####

Holy crap. I hope Trudeau wasn’t there early celebrating QE II day.

#113 Dr V on 09.16.22 at 12:30 am

110 Fartz

@#105 Shawn
“Then there is the fact that tipping harkens back to the old master and slave days. And where (let’s face it) men can openly lay on the higher tips in return for skimpier outfits on the women servers and bit of flirting”

+++
Well.
Something worse than that happened in Tofino and they shut down a fishing derby and NO-ONE…not even the cops are talking about it.
——————————————–

Hmmm. Maybe something to do with the whales. There were two movies. “Moby” someone and “Free” something.

#114 Shanty Town on 09.16.22 at 1:03 am

My experience with Canadas real estate cycles is ‘slightly’ different than stated by the Kelowna mavens. Our cycles are more drawn out and expecting a manageable adjustment into a lateral stasis isn’t at all what happens. I do agree that the trough does tend to last a decade or slightly more.

Cycles were fairly predictable before Greenspans Interference but business cycles got killed by QE/Zirp. Going into the 80’s we saw a much more extended artificial uptick, resulting in a longer higher blow off peak , a longer ‘ adjustment’ going down and then a walking dead period of around 12 years where prices flatlined. So given that much government juice in the pipe now there’s no way this is going to be a nice little adjustment with support found in ‘23.

I see prices going down for at least another 5 years until a mushy bottom forms into a perhaps decade long sideways flop. There’s too much excess that needs to be wrung out. Buy a house? Not this decade. Developers already know this, that’s why they’ve pulled the plug. Renting will be popular. I think Riocan and others adding to rental stock will win vs sales.

It will be wrung out and that’s always ugly. Too many people have too much credit to lose. There’s too much government welfare, but that’s a mugs game, with all the so called job gains are in seasonal and service. The phony numbers are political.

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.16.22 at 2:15 am

@#107 Cougar
“signed, the Jaguar (official junkyard dog protector and advocate of the great province of Alberta)’
++++
Spare me.
I moved out West seeking fame and fortune.
Ready to work.
And I worked my ass off as the Albertan Oil based economy staggered and died..
I did the crappy, physical work the Albertans refused to get their oil rich hands dirty with.
And all I received from Albertans was arrogant derision for being from ‘back east”.
Which to those uncultured rubes was the Saskatchewan border.

“Go back East all you creeps and Bums” was the famous drunken vitriol Mayor/Premier Ralph Klein could spew between swills of booze.
Then he died of dementia.

As I recall one of the major buildings in downtown Calgary in the early 1980’s had a plaque to one of the “first” entrepreneurs to build the city….
He was from Prince Edward Island.

Stuff your hard boiled eggs back in the chicken.
This Rooster aint buying what you’re selling.

#116 Jane24 on 09.16.22 at 3:12 am

To the person checking out Southern Europe for winter sun. Remember that it is just not the latitude but also the altitude that counts. Our summer home in Italy is on the ankle bone of the boot but at 650 meters. Consequently winters are frosty with some snow. You want to be next to the sea and at sea level for winter warmth.

How hot do you want it in January? If about 25 degrees then your choices are Greek isles, Cyprus and southern Spain and Portugal. Of these Cyprus and Portugal are the two that give Canadians of any origin retirement visas and have no capital gains tax at death. If you can get a second eu passport due to ancestry which goes 2 to 3 generations then you can go anywhere. The best rated health care system is Portugal. You will find more English spoken in Portugal and Cyprus is bilingual.

Any of your choices though will give you a 50% reduction on the incredibly high Canadian cost of living and a better life style. The exchange rate right now is in your favour. We are in Portugal next month looking at retirement options and the flights were £22 per person and £49 per suitcase flying from the GATWICK hub. You always save from Canada by going through GATWICK due to the nosebleed costs of flying from Canada.

Do let us all know your research results.

#117 Steven Rowlandson on 09.16.22 at 3:37 am

“Your Property Taxes = the rent on the land that you don’t own…

An escalating Mortgage that you can never pay off…”

Yes, Randy these are excellent reasons for not paying much for real estate. Equal to or less than 3 years pay and preferably less.

#118 Larry on 09.16.22 at 4:23 am

“In Toronto, Altus Group just found that a third of all developers are halting or pausing condo construction projects”.

Wait….I thought we had a supply problem?

The government maybe should look at the home and condo builders instead at the banks profits.

#119 The Addict on 09.16.22 at 5:51 am

Creepy?

• Middle-aged climate scientist trawling through old posts to threaten to post supposedly offensive comment, then doing so.

In the wokeiverse isn’t “internet bullying” a big no-no? Granted, it was totally ineffectual since no one cares, but the effort was there. The only thing more sad than a bully is a lame one lol.

• Taking up over 10% of the post count today alone. Creeeeeeepy.

Clearly, time to go back to Step 1 of the program and start over Dr. A.

#120 Wrk.dover on 09.16.22 at 6:19 am

#100 Bdwy on 09.15.22 at 9:16 pm
Fedex grim news leads equity futures lower.

June lows seem unavoidable.

Stocks challenging RE for biggest loser
______________________________________

I looked forward to their deliveries…until this morning.

This parcel will be very, very expensive!

#121 the Jaguar on 09.16.22 at 6:45 am

@#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.16.22 at 2:15 am
@#107 Cougar +++
The Cougar part is very revealing. Heard it before from another poster. Duly noted. Reality is that you haven’t lived in Alberta for years. Dragging out Ralph Klein and something he said 40 years ago has little to do with the current environment in Calgary. Instead of jumping on the WTF bandwagon maybe read the initial post more carefully which was a response to a poster who wanted to know what was happening in the Calgary marketplace and economy. I live here and have some contacts so I thought I would oblige. The economy is coming back in Calgary, and we do contribute a lot to the country. If that ‘stings’ for some, they need to look in the mirror.
You can go back now to wailing on about Trump and Putin. Your focus on individuals versus underlying issues and cause speaks volumes.

#122 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.16.22 at 7:26 am

#119 The Addict on 09.16.22 at 5:51 am

Our strange little weatherman finds it creepy that a red-blooded Canadian male is attracted to women… (◔_◔)

Ignore him.. it drives him crazy. He’s an idiot anyways.

Whip him up, and he tends to show everyone what a complete fraud he is though. That can be fun if the mood is taking…

#123 oops on 09.16.22 at 7:50 am

#119 The Addict on 09.16.22 at 5:51 am

Middle aged? No way. 28-30 max.

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.16.22 at 8:36 am

@#121 The Calgary
“The economy is coming back in Calgary, and we do contribute a lot to the country.”

+++
I guess every city with a one trick pony economy has to shine once a decade.
Finally the price of oil has made the tar sands and nat gas viable again.
BC and Vancouver has been booming for decades.
I guess thats why I still see tons of trucks from Alberta driving the streets on the Lower Brainland ….daily.
When the glaciers recede to the point of extinction and the Bow river water dries up.
Give us a call.
We’ll sell you some water.

#125 Dharma Bum on 09.16.22 at 8:37 am

#122 ImGonnaBeSick

Ignore him…it drives him crazy. He’s an idiot anyway.
**********************************************

Is that why weather forecasts are as accurate as throwing darts blindly?

Monkeys picking numbers?

Broken clocks?

Sheesh.

#126 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.16.22 at 9:02 am

#125 Dharma Bum on 09.16.22 at 8:37 am

Easiest job in the world;

“Today’s weather will be seasonal temperatures, with a mix of sun and cloud. Chance of precipitation.”

Now they like to add:

“And, just in case you haven’t been told yet today, you’re all going to die in hellfire… Please flagellate yourself appropriately”

That’s why they usually give the job to airheads…

#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.16.22 at 9:40 am

6 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.16.22 at 9:02 am
#125 Dharma Bum on 09.16.22 at 8:37 am

Easiest job in the world;

“Today’s weather will be seasonal temperatures, with a mix of sun and cloud. Chance of precipitation.”

Now they like to add:

“And, just in case you haven’t been told yet today, you’re all going to die in hellfire… Please flagellate yourself appropriately”

That’s why they usually give the job to airheads…
———————
Airheads?
You and the Bum would be perfect candidates.
You’d be assigned to predict the weather in the Sahara.
Easiest job on the planet.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.16.22 at 9:46 am

@#112 Don G
“Holy crap. I hope Trudeau wasn’t there early celebrating QE II day.”

+++
Chances are.
With the lickspittle media here in BC.
That story will die a quick, quiet, death.
They dont want to bite the rich hands that feed them.

#129 retire in europe on 09.16.22 at 10:01 am

116 Jane24 on 09.16.22 at 3:12 am
————–

They can say what they want about the southern Europeans. But at least they know how to live. Already have 2nd passport. That’s the plan going forward. If you know where you’re looking, you can have an incredible retirement. Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece/Cyprus. All fantastic choices. Something different for everyone.

Best part, far far cheaper than Canada

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.16.22 at 10:47 am

@#113 Dr V
Whale watching….from the bar no less.
Who knew.

#131 Yukon Elvis on 09.16.22 at 11:03 am

#101 Faron on 09.15.22 at 9:26 pm
#53 Ponzius Pilatus on 06.29.21 at 4:01 pm
#33 Ustabe on 06.29.21 at 3:13 pm
#25 Yukon Elvis on 06.29.21 at 2:55 pm

…I like SE Asia this time of year cuz it is monsoon and typhoon season there. I miss that. And the girls are friendly too. If you know what I mean…….

wow.
————–
Thanks for pointing that out. I missed it.
This is a family blog, so I can’t say what I think

Still creepy AF. And you dreamed up drugging children today and you ad hominem attack people with mental health slurs. Bottom of the barrel.
++++++++++++++
I miss the Geishas and the teahouses. They miss me too. Nobody misses you bubba. Take the pill. It will help with the hallucinations.

#132 Shifty on 09.16.22 at 11:44 am

Propaganda is like shifting sands.

1 Jobs numbers for the past three years have all been faked. In fact 9 out of ten jobs created have all been civil service. Only 57,000 have been private sector. Somebody’s lying big time.

2) lithium prices are up another 160% this year after rising 300% in the past three years. So how are EV’s going to ever been affordable. There’ll never be a transition, never.

3) Oil prices are being artificially held down with government intervention. How long can that last? Not long I suspect. An energy ETF might look pretty sweet when the winters set in.

Propaganda isn’t bankable, but common sense is.

#133 Don Guillermo on 09.16.22 at 11:45 am

Jag, sorry the AB haters are bashing. Maybe Trudy was right for once (broken clock?). People experience things differently.

I moved to AB in the 80’s. There was lots of work. Most of it was hard, remote and outside. Did I mention cold? I worked industrial construction in the trades on contract, made great money, had lots of flexibility and absolutely loved it. Most of it was camp work. I tried to convince friends to join in but most didn’t want to leave their comforts (like golf courses and ski hills). Even through the ‘82 crash we managed to keep working.

A few years later I was an Instr Tech on small projects at Syncrude. My boss and soon to be mentor was Mowat Good, a Civil Engineer who moved to Alberta from New Brunswick. Mo loved the big projects and was gutted when Alsands and OSLO were canceled. When Mo learned I had a tech diploma as well as trade ticket he said I needed to get into an EPC office and helped focus my CV. A few interviews later I had job offers from H.A Simons Van, SNC Edm and Lavalin Cgy. Mo pointed to the Calgary offer and said “that’s a no brainer “. Best thing that ever happened to me. Thanks Mo. RIP buddy.

#134 DON on 09.16.22 at 11:51 am

#126 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.16.22 at 9:02 am
#125 Dharma Bum on 09.16.22 at 8:37 am

Easiest job in the world;

“Today’s weather will be seasonal temperatures, with a mix of sun and cloud. Chance of precipitation.”

Now they like to add:

“And, just in case you haven’t been told yet today, you’re all going to die in hellfire… Please flagellate yourself appropriately”

That’s why they usually give the job to airheads…

*******&&&&

It’s like watching children argue…all of you!

#135 Wrk.dover on 09.16.22 at 12:06 pm

FedEx Ceo should be commended for being honest.

Brutally honest!

I’m getting a kick out of the markets staying relatively stable, kicking the shorty set in the wallet.

#136 Faron on 09.16.22 at 12:13 pm

Garth, show us some integrity and enforce your abusive comment rule. Self defense is one thing, but when people leap out of the woodwork into a discussion they have no part in with ad hominem slander it makes this place truly ugly.

Here’s a hint as to what to look for.

#122 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.16.22 at 7:26 am
He’s an idiot anyways…Whip him up,

#72 Yukon Elvis on 09.15.22 at 6:48 pm
Those kids are stoned Bubba. Stop giving them your meds.

#40 Yukon Elvis on 09.14.22 at 5:20 pm
You should be Locked in not Linkedin. Medicated too.

#113 The Addict on 09.15.22 at 10:36 am
internet equivalent of a mean drunk when he gets wound up. Just let him get it off his concave chest. Def off his meds,

Sure, I may get some deletes, but numerous others should too. In this case, the only people who should be a part of this discussion is me, Jess and Covid Variant Math. Everyone else is fully engaged in abusive behaviour.

Clean up your act.

Faron

#137 Faron on 09.16.22 at 12:15 pm

#125 Dharma Bum on 09.16.22 at 8:37 am

#122 ImGonnaBeSick

Ignore him…it drives him crazy. He’s an idiot anyway.

That’s weird, the forecast model output I looked at had the late August/early September heatwave nailed at least 10 days before it happened. I mentioned it here in fact.

It would be hilarious to see which of you has a weather app on their phone that they regularly look at.

#138 Faron on 09.16.22 at 12:29 pm

Here’s a great interview with a guy who has nailed the macro picture and understands equity market structure very well. Here he’s talking about global macro picture vs market stability, vol supply etc.

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1dRKZMzQlBrxB

#139 Nonplused on 09.16.22 at 12:42 pm

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.16.22 at 8:36 am
@#121 The Calgary
“The economy is coming back in Calgary, and we do contribute a lot to the country.”

+++
I guess every city with a one trick pony economy has to shine once a decade.
Finally the price of oil has made the tar sands and nat gas viable again.
BC and Vancouver has been booming for decades.
I guess thats why I still see tons of trucks from Alberta driving the streets on the Lower Brainland ….daily.
When the glaciers recede to the point of extinction and the Bow river water dries up.
Give us a call.
We’ll sell you some water.

———————————–

That’s funny. Why would BC have fresh water if the Bow River is dry? The water comes from the same mountains via the same rain clouds.

As for the BC economy, what drives it? Well, they have a couple of ports servicing the rest of Canada. They have a fair amount of oil and gas. They have trees. They have tourists from Alberta. Oh and socialism.
They have socialism. That’s about it, really.

Basically BC is a microcosm of Canada. Vancouver lords over and exploits a vast area of land they don’t understand and sort of resent, sort of the same way Toronto and Montreal do. (Known as Ottawa in politics. But Ottawa isn’t really a place for anything else but Toronto and Montreal to meet and plan their exploitation of the rest of the country.) BC is politically divided with Vancouver Island and Vancouver city on the left, and the rest of the province on the right, also similar to Canada with Ottawa (Toronto and Montreal) on the left, and the rest of the country (except Vancouver) on the right.

If Canada ever fails, BC will not remain intact, it’ll split along the Coast Mountains to the Kitimat range. Maybe that section will join Washington? Who knows? All we know for sure is most of Canada will be glad to see them go.

#140 Faron on 09.16.22 at 12:50 pm

#70 Don Guillermo on 09.15.22 at 6:33 pm

we’ll expect you to teach us everything Russian

Well, so far Anna Politkovskaya is describing the Russian military, it’s corruption and depravity and using it to lead into the “functioning” of the judicial system when it comes to the appratachik.

Anna was murdered under Putin’s orders a couple years after she published her book.

Thanks for the interest! I’m sure it’s genuine.

#141 Michael in-north-york on 09.16.22 at 12:56 pm

#41:

Price cap is for oil that Putin sells to 3-rd parties. All major companies that provide insurance for the cargo, are based in the Western countries. They will not sell insurance for contracts with higher prices.

Unreasonable during peace, pretty good during a war.

Oil shipments from Putin to Europe will come to an end in a few months anyway, price cap doesn’t matter there.

#142 Faron on 09.16.22 at 1:08 pm

#139 Nonplused on 09.16.22 at 12:42 pm
#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.16.22 at 8:36 am

When the glaciers recede to the point of extinction and the Bow river water dries up.
Give us a call.
We’ll sell you some water.

———————————–

That’s funny. Why would BC have fresh water if the Bow River is dry? The water comes from the same mountains via the same rain clouds.

Uuuuh, I hate to admit it.

This is tough for me.

But… Crowdedelevatorfartz is right.

Nonplussed, maybe have a looksee at some climatology maps of your province. Alberta, especially southern, is the last in line for moisture from the Pacific. Both will have drier summers, but BC will have at least some water. Northern Alberta is a different story, but the tar sands projects are working hard to make surface water poisonous up there, so… have at ‘er.

#143 Faron on 09.16.22 at 1:16 pm

#135 Wrk.dover on 09.16.22 at 12:06 pm

FedEx Ceo should be commended for being honest.

Honesty is not commendable; it should be the status quo. Dishonesty/fraud needs to be hammered much, much harder than it is. Looking at you Elon.

#144 Don Guillermo on 09.16.22 at 1:33 pm

#140 Faron on 09.16.22 at 12:50 pm
#70 Don Guillermo on 09.15.22 at 6:33 pm

we’ll expect you to teach us everything Russian

Well, so far Anna Politkovskaya is describing the Russian military, it’s corruption and depravity and using it to lead into the “functioning” of the judicial system when it comes to the appratachik.

Anna was murdered under Putin’s orders a couple years after she published her book.

Thanks for the interest! I’m sure it’s genuine.
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It is actually. I’m currently reading Russka by Edward Rutherford. Yours sounds interesting though. I just went to the Kobo store and picked up Anna’s Putin’s Russia. Thanks for the tip.

#145 Covid Variant Math on 09.16.22 at 4:14 pm

#88 Faron on 09.15.22 at 8:05 pm
#76 Covid Variant Math on 09.15.22 at 7:06 pm

Yes, sometimes laughing uncontrollably at someone (you, AM in MN, The General etc) is uncomfortable.

Sorry, what was your question again? Was it the alien model one or the e=mc^2 one? Srsly, I forgot.
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Not surprised that you keep forgetting questions that make you uncomfortable.

Keep on diggin’…

#146 The Guillotine is God on 09.16.22 at 5:02 pm

Audi lease payments. Rising real estate finance costs. Bank loan-to-value ratios steadily and quietly shrinking. HELOC terms and conditions being re-thought.
These are all symptoms of a credit contraction. Coming from rates at 3%, 4% is one thing. That would be painful enough. But rates are rising from 0%….and bond maths is brutal. That is the sort of maths overlevered borrowers are now learning on the fly.
Real estate prices are adjusting accordingly.

#147 The Original Jake on 09.16.22 at 7:25 pm

In my neck of the woods (GTA), prices are still above pre-covid levels. Lots more room to fall before it’s a time to buy.

#148 DJT on 09.17.22 at 2:05 am

Cant even run a Passport Office…

#149 Calgary on 09.17.22 at 6:37 pm

Calgary is the third most liveable city in the world. When is the best time to buy a single-family detached home?