No respite

The last time a five-year Canada bond paid what it does now (close to 3.5%) was in the winter of 2008, as this blog was crawling out of the primordial ooze. Back then the yield was slithering down, thanks to the credit crisis. (Google it, kiddos.) Bonds really hit the skids during 2020’s pandemic, plunging to one third of one per cent. It was extreme monetary policy.

The yield on this particular bond helps determine five-year mortgage rates. It’s why you could borrow money at an absurd sub-2% during Covid, and why mortgages have now inflated into the 5% range. This week bond yields zipped higher. Tomorrow (Thursday), fixed mortgage rates at the major banks will increase, along with the cost of a variable loan. Not by a huge amount. But still more. And there’s absolutely no relief on the horizon.

As you know, US inflation came in hot on Tuesday. Stock markets croaked in response. The American Fed is set for a rate hike of 75 beeps next week. Some people think a full 1% is in the cards. Chatter about a ‘soft landing’ has been replaced by talk of ‘pain.’ Unemployment will go up. Corporate profits will be squeezed. There may be a recession.

Most people will surf through the downturn just fine and hopefully we’ll come out of it with lower costs, less inflation and a clear runway. Those most impacted will (a) be people who lose their jobs (unlike Covid, this time it will be the white collar WFH people in the crosshairs, not the folks who serve you dinner) and (b) the uber-indebted, mostly those with fat mortgages. Or, it could be darker.

Most economists worth listening to have raised their targets for the bank rate before we see a pause. In general that’s about 1% more than now. The bank prime would be just under 6.5% and five-year house money would have a 5-handle. The next two moves for our central bank are expected to be 25 bps, with another one or two in the winter/spring. At that point inflation should be less, unemployment more and real estate prices 15% below current levels.

Rates will not then fall – unless the wheels come off the whole economy. Everybody should expect that 4-5% mortgages will be the norm for a few years, and central bankers to stay macho.

But government could be he spoiler. This week’s crazy announcement of $4.6 billion in additional federal cheques to “offset inflation” will only make inflation worse. Just when the CB is trying to restrict credit, Ottawa’s creating more billions. “We will be assessing the implications for price pressures but it seems sensible to assume that this will add to pressures on measures of core inflation relative to what would have otherwise occurred and hence aggravate the Bank of Canada’s stance on monetary policy,” says Scotiabank economists.

Almost four in 10 households with mortgages face renewal in the next 18 months. Virtually all of them will end up paying more. Everybody with a variable-rate mortgage is forking over more interest every month and paying down debt glacially. The stress test for new buyers is a scary 7%. As the bank rate travels from 0.25% to 4%, the political pressure to ‘do something’ to save the housing market will intensify. Meanwhile financial institutions say foot-dragging in Ottawa may prevent the January 1st launch of the new FHSA – the centrepiece of the Liberal real estate strategy.

What can we expect?

A fight. The feds vs the bank. The Trudeau Libs are under pressure to scrap the stress test, letting borrowers qualify at a much lower rate, and also allow insured 30-year mortgages to be a thing again. They may follow through on raising the CHMC mortgage limit to cover $1.25 million properties and drop the cost of insurance premiums for the 5% crowd. Whatever it is, rest assured there will be… something.

Any of those actions aimed at assisting buyers will delay or diminish price reductions. They’ll offset the cost of a mortgage by spreading out payments and increase credit through CMHC.

Will Pepe and the Cons resist? After all, the fiery new leader said his first act would be to fire the Bank of Canada boss for not raising rates faster, sooner, and he’s vowed to crush inflation. That will only come through economic contraction, reduced credit, less public spending and lower consumer demand. Will the Conservatives campaign on giving people less? Are you kidding?

The likely outcome: several (perhaps many) years of inflation, stubbornly high interest rates, structural unemployment and political strife. The economy and markets will adapt. The wealth divide will grow. The indebted will feel betrayed.

By the way, the last time mortgages were at 5% a property in Toronto averaged $379,080. Now it’s $1,079,500. And this just happened to household net worth.

The time has come for government to stop cajoling people into houses. Debt is insane. Prices are unattainable. Risk grows. And we never learn.

About the picture: “I would like to offer this picture of my foster dog, Stork, to be used in a future blog entry,” writes Ward. “He’s a Husky/ Golden Retriever mix that I fostered for a couple of weeks.  He was an absolute keeper if my travel schedule would have allowed!”

Have a beast to share with the pack? Send your pictures and words to me ([email protected]). – Garth

131 comments ↓

#1 Shawn on 09.14.22 at 3:54 pm

Big Canada Pension Increase coming in January

But an idiot story here does not think they will come through with a full CPI increase because their assets will be down.

They are wrong.

https://ca.style.yahoo.com/don-t-count-cpp-increase-134500078.html

#2 FerrisWheel on 09.14.22 at 3:58 pm

Completely agree. Trudeau is trying to buy our votes and killing the next generation’s chances of accumulating wealth. The debt will be gianormous!

#3 Shawn on 09.14.22 at 4:00 pm

I own shares in an Alberta residential land developer.

So please could more of you be decent and smart enough to move to Alberta and buy a new house?

Houses are still quite affordable here.

It will benefit you as well as me. Thank you.

And could someone send over a pile of immigrants too please?

#4 Linda on 09.14.22 at 4:03 pm

Predicting the future is just that – a prediction. Who would have thought inflation would have become an issue two short years ago? Heck, we were talking about deflation or stagflation as being a concern. Yet here we are, looking at possibly years of price increases at a time when the debt loads have never been higher. Do NOT see this ending well, not even for those with robust fiscal balance sheets. Because you know, the cry of the impoverished & the indebted will be ‘make the rich pay’ – said rich being anyone who isn’t spending more than they make. Which is getting harder to do given how prices have been increasing.

Hope that ‘Stork’ got a forever home. Looks very much like a pup who would love a good cuddle.

#5 Love_The_Cottage on 09.14.22 at 4:07 pm

But government could be he spoiler. This week’s crazy announcement of $4.6 billion in additional federal cheques to “offset inflation” will only make inflation worse… “We will be assessing the implications for price pressures but it seems sensible to assume that this will add to pressures on measures of core inflation relative to what would have otherwise occurred and hence aggravate the Bank of Canada’s stance on monetary policy,” says Scotiabank economists.
________
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.economic-indicators.scotia-flash.-september-13–2022-.html

There is no indication of the expected impact on inflation in the article. I’m not disputing the direction and 4.6 billion is a lot of money, but in comparison to the entire economy is it? Are we talking an expected increase to inflation of 1% or .1% or .01%? Please show your work :-)

#6 Alberta Guy in AB on 09.14.22 at 4:07 pm

So yields up, bond prices down…should new money be over weighting bonds v equities until the rates start to come down?

#7 Caffeine Monkey on 09.14.22 at 4:11 pm

“paying down debt glacially” – I guess I’m just wired differently, but the thought of this gives me hives. It’s one thing if you’re leveraging debt for a proper investment vehicle (eg. your TFSA) but another thing altogether if you’re leveraged up to your eyeballs and only able to pay interest on a million dollar mortgage for a moldy stucco clad Vancouver special. Egads.

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.22 at 4:15 pm

Yep.
Watch the Liberals spend , spend , spend and spend some more.
Higher interest rates vs idiot policies.
Who will “win”?
Not the taxpayer.
One wonders if the Liberals secretly hope when Poilievre becomes Prime Minister ….the voters will blame him for the coming financial pain.

Liberal elites and their fiscal naiveite will make us all pay.

#9 Victor Llearna on 09.14.22 at 4:16 pm

“By the way, the last time mortgages were at 5% a property in Toronto averaged $379,080. Now it’s $1,079,500. And this just happened to household net worth.”

Those sheep will learn a the hardest lesson of all.
Already seeing way more for sale signs than have over last 5-10 years.

#10 Reality Check on 09.14.22 at 4:16 pm

How will Trudeau observe the Federal holiday on Monday to honour the Queen.

Will Mr Wokeness and his entourage be jetting off for a Tofino surfing trip on Monday. And in the process burn tons of greenhouse gases on his private government jet?

I assume he will be reflecting on her majesties 7 decades of service while he catches SOME AWESOME WAVES, DUDE.

Just like the secret surfing trip he took on Canada’s first National Truth and Reconciliation Day last year?

Not likely, this is all about Trudeau’s usual hypocritical Wokeness signalling. Trudeau learnt his lesson last year – sometimes people expect you to walk the virtuous talk you talk.

If I was a First Nations person I would feel extremely slighted. Last year Trudeau showed his contempt for Truth and Reconciliation Day by going on a secret surfing vacation. But when it comes to the symbol of the colonialism establishment he pulls out all stops to celebrate.

What a tone deaf hypocrite.

An all this with a cost of an unnecessary holiday of several billion dollars to the Canadian economy.

(I respect the Queen and her decades of being a fine figurehead. But I expect even she would be appalled at the idea of shutting down large sectors of the Canadian economy for an entire day to observe her funeral.)

Not even the banks are closing. – Garth

#11 Former Liberal on 09.14.22 at 4:18 pm

Trudeau and his socialite property-owning liberal cohorts are out of touch with Canadians.

He is offering a one time $500 rent relief for anyone who earns less than C$20,000 a year.

That is pathetic. Only those on welfare will qualify, including students who put $0 as their income while working under the table jobs.

#12 West New West on 09.14.22 at 4:18 pm

‘Im from the government and I’m here to help’……Reagan’s ‘The nine most terrifying words’

#13 Prince Polo on 09.14.22 at 4:21 pm

Government and uninformed electorate doesn’t do economic reality! Therefore, free ponies for everybody and 100yr amortizations to make housing so much more “affordable”.

#14 TurnerNation on 09.14.22 at 4:22 pm

We pay high taxes for our Social Safety Net!
How’s the “Hospital Capacity” coming along guys? Not a penny. Our rulers are doing this on purpose.
I suspect many staff have left, or been fired over “mandates”, that they are sick of all this and gone to a private facility.

Just another day in a Former First World Country — we fell, March 2020:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-health-sciences-centre-unprecedented-crisis-1.6581897
On Tuesday, CBC News reported that a dozen severely ill patients were lined up on stretchers in an entrance hallway at Winnipeg’s Health Sciences Centre Sunday night because of a lack of space inside.

‘Mass exodus’ leads to staffing shortage​
Health-care workers, patients and others in the system have described ongoing barriers to care in recent years amid staffing shortages and other disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

—-
—-Man & machine. Perfect combo of mindless worker drones/tax slaves:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2022/09/12/executive-order-on-advancing-biotechnology-and-biomanufacturing-innovation-for-a-sustainable-safe-and-secure-american-bioeconomy/
For biotechnology and biomanufacturing to help us achieve our societal goals, the United States needs to invest in foundational science circuitry for cells and predictably program biology in the same way in which we write software and program computers; unlock the power of biological data, including through computing tools and artificial intelligence

#15 rampant inflation on 09.14.22 at 4:23 pm

you are only at the beginning of this rampant period of inflation. it will take a decade or more before inflation is stamped out.

why? central bank and government incompetence.

higher inflation = higher rates = recession = lower corporate profits = lower stock multiples = much much lower stock prices.

go back and look at the 1970’s. it’s going to be rough kids. SP -85% after inflation. bond market decimated. 60/40 dead.

#16 Søren Angst on 09.14.22 at 4:27 pm

Canada’s National Net Worth went up by 0.2% to $17.6 trillion in the 2nd Qtr. That was largely due to natural resources.

Household net worth (as you show graphically as -6.1%) went down by nearly $1 trillion ($990.1 billion) from the 1st Qtr to $15.2 trillion.

$ ONE TRILLION

Due to equity, bond & housing markets.

Residential RE value lost was $446.3 billion to $8,655.6 billion in the 2nd Qtr wiping out a 1st Qtr gain of $344.0 billion. Still, $2.3 trillion or 41.1% higher than the level recorded at the end of 2019.

Wealth held through institutional investors such as mutual funds and insurance and pension plans shed a record $429.2 billion in value by the end of the 2nd Qtr (not me, still up about 7% YTD, it’s the rest of yours fault).

——————–

As I said 2 days ago, DEPRESSING.

It will get better Canada. It always has, it always will. PATIENCE.

#17 IHCTD9 on 09.14.22 at 4:29 pm

We’re just not going to get anything fixed in this country until Trudeau is sent packing. That’s a fact.

#18 Road and Track on 09.14.22 at 4:29 pm

#101 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.13.22 at 9:26 pm
They switched the Queens hearse from a Mercedes (what were they thinking) to a Jaguar.

—–

Why would they think it mattered?

#19 PBrasseur on 09.14.22 at 4:30 pm

We are where we are because of politicians, they control government spending, money printing, the CMHC, energy policies, etc, why should we suddenly hope from them to do the right thing?

The best we can hope for is for the least damaging to get elected when the time comes. I think that choice is pretty clear already.

#20 Ed on 09.14.22 at 4:33 pm

That Canada 5 year bond rate is going to start goosing all my rate resets.

#21 Neo on 09.14.22 at 4:35 pm

Over my 50 years I simply can’t believe what a 3 rd world dump this county has become. If not for all the wonderful diversity we enjoy, we would have nothing at all.

#22 willworkforpickles on 09.14.22 at 4:37 pm

BANNED (Abusive)

#23 Faron on 09.14.22 at 4:37 pm

#153 Russ on 09.14.22 at 1:07 pm

I don’t have much to say about e-mail clients. Maybe try emacs.

#24 Faron on 09.14.22 at 4:39 pm

#152 Bdwy on 09.14.22 at 1:02 pm

Weak stocks performance today following the big dip.

Not a great sign. Feels like more red by close.

I’d like to introduce you to my friend Vanna.

#25 DTP on 09.14.22 at 4:44 pm

Trudeau’s “strategies” are beginning to read like Beaverton headlines.

#26 Ronaldo on 09.14.22 at 4:45 pm

A dose of reality is in store for the WFH “quiet quiters” methinks.

#27 Doug t on 09.14.22 at 4:46 pm

Hmmmm several years of inflation ahead – powdered milk, canned potatoes and KD are coming back in fashion for some lol

#28 LG on 09.14.22 at 4:46 pm

Garth: “. . . to crush inflation… will only come through economic contraction, reduced credit, less public spending and lower consumer demand.

Hasn’t years of discouraging investment in the oil & gas sector, and countries self limiting the use of oil & gas, (Germany voluntarily closing nuclear power plants, Netherlands choosing to not use their own natural Gas supply) a major factor in higher energy costs?

Everything produced needs energy. Wouldn’t increasing availability of energy, result in lower energy costs and decrease inflation?

#29 Søren Angst on 09.14.22 at 4:49 pm

Forgot household disposable income 2nd Qtr:

+1%

At the same time, seasonally adjusted household consumption rose by:

+4.3%

Means consumption outstripped savings – significantly bolstered by price increases (a.k.a., high inflation).

Why household borrowing accelerated from the 1st Qtr, with households adding a near record $56.3 billion of debt in the 2nd Qtr.

———————

DEPRESSING.

Not only has household wealth gone down by $1 TRILLION, savings are being outstripped by consumption due to inflation … so much so Cdns borrowing at record rates to make ends meet.

It WILL get better Canada.

Tell it like it is, take any win and spin yet totally depressing StatCan:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220912/dq220912a-eng.htm?HPA=1

#30 chalkie on 09.14.22 at 4:56 pm

There is not much of a reason to go to work anymore, or is there? because everything is free now.
The Trudeau Government and the never ending NDP pushing for spotlight glory, both parties are giving away your money like a drunken pirate ship crew, there is no end to what handouts are available without even them giving a second thought to reality. Jagmeet said yesterday that he intends to “deliver for People” deliver what? other than a recession to arrive much faster. Jagmeet also said that this plan will be in place by 2023 or there will be repercussions, “sounds like a threat to me”, I sure would love to know what these repercussions are Jagmeet, other than more pain on Canadian Workers who has to pay for your ridicules dream bill liabilities.

The regular working class will be paying this Liberal and NDP mess off until our great, great, great grandchildren are adults, we cannot even afford the interest on the disaster of Canada’s expenditures and liabilities right now, and to add another 5 billion dollars to our deficit, is suicide on wheels.

Many homeowners are losing wealth as high mortgage rates weigh on home values, at least on paper, as the once red-hot housing market cooled so quickly and the fire is not out yet. Sales have been slowing down for the past six months and interest rates have doubled and even tripled on certain mortgages since the start of 2022.

We are not sheep but rather good laymen of value, the general public can see the outcome, how the smoking did some of these politicians every make it to the front line, is beyond ones thinking. We the general public understand that the BOC has to go beyond inflation rates to get this run-away train under control, this scares a lot of people, re: the consumer price index in July was at 7.6%, so where will the rates stop before there is any light at the end of the tunnel.

In 2007, United States residents in some areas experienced home prices drop below 50%, that’s right, less than half of what they paid for their home one year earlier. Looking for a mortgage, good luck with the Canadian Bank stretch test, the elastic band has already bust and there is not enough elastic left over to even tie a knot in it. Keep your cash, don’t be sorry tomorrow, 2023 real estate deals are coming.

So, You’ve Found the Home that you want — Agents Help You Negotiate, right?
In my own past, I’ve put in offers for roughly a dozen different places and pieces of real estate, and never have I really felt that a real estate agent negotiated for me, other than one agent out of the entire batch of them that I used over the years.
Client to agent, the conversations typically go like this:
Me: I’m thinking about putting in an offer.
Agent: How much do you want to offer?
Me: What do you think I should offer?
Agent: Well, the seller has it listed for this, and the comps look like it could go for this.
Me: Well, what do you think?
Agent: Well, offer what you’re comfortable with.
Me: Thanks for being so helpful???? Yelp, that’s what you just paid $45,000 or $50,000 for
Do you see my point here. I’ve never had an agent tell me they think they can get me “this great deal,” or that “we should go in at this price.” I’ve found that real estate agents have simply become messengers — just doing what they’re told by their clients. My advice is to go Slow, but to go Low in every offer. The higher the sell price, happier the realtor is.

In Canada, REALTOR associations have long-protected real estate data (don’t get me star
ted). After losing a decade-long court case that went all the way to the Supreme Court of Canada, the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) now has to publicly share some of their data…but there’s still a long way to go. The Zillow we see in Canada isn’t yet what it could be, United States is light years ahead of Canada on realtor information, but it’s coming slow but sure.

#31 Wrk.dover on 09.14.22 at 4:58 pm

Watching money die….

#32 Søren Angst on 09.14.22 at 5:00 pm

$4.6 billion in additional federal cheques to “offset inflation” will only make inflation worse.

——-

From a principled POV Gov Canada giving money away which will increase demand and fuel inflation.

From a numerical POV, Cdns ADDING a near record $56.3 billion of debt in the 2nd Qtr to make ends meet. Gov Canada lightening the load for some at $4.6 billion but that number is only

8.2%

of the debt added to cope with inflation in the 2nd Qtr. Seems more of an attempt to help the truly destitute and window dressing to show the Libs + NDP care.

Basically, if your grocery bill went up by $56.30 in just the one Qtr, Gov Canada at $4.60 helped pay for the:

POP TARTS and CHIPS

and they have to last for the next 3 Qtrs.

#33 A + B on 09.14.22 at 5:00 pm

I suspect that more than a few WFH people are also heavily indebted and may also have LOC debt incurred to make their recently purchased, far-flung digs in bunnyville more habitable.

#34 NOSTRADAMUS on 09.14.22 at 5:00 pm

NIGHTMARE!
Origin- Middle English (denoting a female evil spirit thought to lie upon and suffocate sleepers).
A nightmare is made of this. Imagine if you can, after two long years of waiting patiently for your new home to be finished, finally the day arrives, the deal closes, the keys are turned over. That night you and your wife open a bottle of Baby Duck bubbly wine, a gift from the real estate agent. Together you both reminiscence, yes it was years of struggle to save and scrimp to put together the down payment. Now you can see the fruit of your labor. However, your sleep is disturbed, as you recall all the vacant houses on your street and the rumor that the builder is reducing the asking price on the house identical to your dream home. This can’t possibly be true you think, houses only appreciate, my realtor told me so. Unfortunately, yes, it turns out to be true, the builder has in fact just sold the twin to your home for 20% less than you paid. Your down payment is long gone. A true nightmare. And it’s coming to a subdivision near you.
Seasoned- New builder sales tactics.
To keep the subdivision owners in the dark about crashing values they stuff the new builds with low cost options at little if any additional cost and keep the price visible to the public. Some options could include added pot lights, trim packages, granite, appliance upgrades, etc. would be included to reflect no adjustments to the price of the home which disguises the discounting from the market. When this fails to move the unsold inventory, price reductions begin in earnest. This is the world you find yourself in. The builder is getting desperate and it’s every man for himself. This is when your nightmare from hell, takes on a life of its own. Finally, a voice of reason.

#35 Dogman01 on 09.14.22 at 5:04 pm

#83 Theory of Everything on 09.13.22 at 7:00 pm

Just stop thinking they don’t know better. They know EXACTLY what they are doing because they’ve been told by…well, you know…

————————————————-

Ok, what is your theory?

I agree:
– “they KNOW exactly what they are doing”.
– they are not stupid but seem to want stupid to be a reasonable perception.
– it sure appears to be coordinated and in “lock-step”across a number of nations.
– it is a constructive incremental and seemingly deliberate.

So what gives, AI, Aliens, WEF, An Epstein like cabal of Blackmailers behind the scenes, China has a Death Ray?

There must be some explanation for why these smart people whom have made it to the “ruling Class” are on a mission to engineer “Economic and Social Suicide”.

#36 Kilt on 09.14.22 at 5:05 pm

“this time it will be the white collar WFH people in the crosshairs”

Wow, someone really doesn’t like WFH.

I think you have to keep things in perspective. For some jobs or industries, having people on site or in the office is required. For others, WFH is simply office evolution.
Should my Doctor go into the office 5 days a week when 60% of his visits are over the phone?
I know Nursing Students who only go to campus for practicum work. Most coursework is online.
Why have office space for a group of Software Developers when all you need is a rack of computers. All the tools for remote work have been their for years and Covid simply improved the tools and proved that the concept works.

Are their downsides to WFH. Sure, but there are also upsides. How those balance depends on each persons own circumstances.

Seems someone is getting bitter or inflexible in their old age. ;)

Kilt

Experience and wisdom tend to do that. – Garth

#37 AM in MN on 09.14.22 at 5:09 pm

Will Pepe and the Cons resist? After all, the fiery new leader said his first act would be to fire the Bank of Canada boss for not raising rates faster, sooner, and he’s vowed to crush inflation. That will only come through economic contraction,

——————————————————–

I’ve never subscribed to this theory. I’m more with Milton Freedman.

Growth does not cause inflation, money printing does.

Raising rates and restricting credit (for some markets, like residential RE) is not a bad thing. Inflation can also come down if the C$ goes up.

This could happen if PP & Con Govt. allows the energy, mineral and industrial economy to grow. More exports will lead to a higher C$ and lower deficits and Govt. borrowing.

There will be no big unemployment, too much of a worker shortage. What we need is less people being paid not to work. Scrap early CPP except for medical exemptions. If you can still do productive work, you shouldn’t be getting paid by the Govt. not to.

#38 Scott in Gibsons on 09.14.22 at 5:15 pm

Don’t hold your breath waiting for inflation to come down when the government’s solution is to print more money and hand it out to people who will immediately spend it. The vicious cycle is hard to exit.

#39 CanadianOne on 09.14.22 at 5:18 pm

Earl says interest rates will hit 6% before they go anywhere lower again…. and we are a tab above 3% now…. lots of pain.

#40 Yukon Elvis on 09.14.22 at 5:20 pm

#158 Faron on 09.14.22 at 2:24 pm

In addition to O+G people trolling my LinkedIn… from Calgary.
++++++++++++++++
You should be Locked in not Linkedin. Medicated too.

#41 DC on 09.14.22 at 5:30 pm

What can we expect, you ask?

We can expect that Mr. Trudeau, with the help of Mr. Singh, will somehow make things worse. As you always say: it is not different this time.

DC

#42 Barcino on 09.14.22 at 5:34 pm

Thank you Garth for all you do.
Very much appreciated.

#43 Nonplused on 09.14.22 at 5:45 pm

5% mortgages are not going to be the end of the world. In fact, I would say that is more where they should be.

2% mortgages weren’t the end of the world either. But it indicated that CB’s thought we were a lot closer to the end of the world than we are now. I personally feel a lot better about the long term potential of an economy that can operate at 5% than one that needs 2% to get by. Remember, that 2% was zero or negative counting inflation. That indicates real problems under the hood.

But as always, the Trudeau government, like most all governments, can be counted on to do exactly the wrong thing at precisely the wrong time. Inflation too high because of too much free money? Hand out more free money! That should help.

Pepe isn’t going to fire anybody unless he gets elected, so for an economic blog that’s jumping the gun a little bit. But if we are going to go there, firing Tiff would be mostly symbolic. He’s raising rates. And he doesn’t really make the rules. Rates are set by the US Fed. The tail doesn’t wag the dog. But it should be remembered that the first casualty in both war and politics is the truth. Nobody gets elected these days by being honest. The public, being gullible, tends to vote for the most comforting lies, no matter how outlandish.

Always remember that 50% of the population is below average intelligence. (Yes they are, by definition. If you don’t understand that, welcome to the 50%.) Then, contemplate the intelligence of the average person, and remember that half the people are even dumber than that. Most people can’t do it because the realization is too frightening. It is amazing we get along as well as we do with that level of thought in charge of electing the government. It’s a wonder things aren’t a whole lot worse.

Politicians understand it though. That’s why they lie the way they do. It works. It always works. People are much too dumb to know the difference until it is much too late.

—————————————

As a side note, if you think that the MSN, social media, advertising, and entertainment media are not influencing you, you have seriously underestimated how smart they are, how good they are at what they do, and how much time they have spent studying the human mind. They own you. They own your very thoughts. Few can escape, and nobody escapes completely. And your head has been filled with almost 100% pure lies.

All you have to do to see the operation right in front of you is watch a news report or some sort of other piece on a subject with which you are deeply familiar due to hands on experience, or even better if the story is actually about you. It is uncanny how not one single thing they say about subjects you can actually verify is true. But “you” aren’t the target audience. And now you are faced with the reality that most everyone else believes what was said.

#44 TurnerNation on 09.14.22 at 5:52 pm

#3 Shawn on 09.14.22 at 4:00 pm

Alberta houses are cheap because of Albertans.
Figure it out :)

#45 Covid Variant Math on 09.14.22 at 5:55 pm

Just to put a spike in the witch doctor-ery Climate stuff from yesterday, one comment said a researcher got a Nobel Prize for making a computer model the “accurately made climate predictions”. This is so silly. How can someone know that future predictions are accurate?? This makes zero sense.

The Nobel Prize committe handed out a political award, no different than Al Gore’s and Barak Obama’s. It was dressed up to fool scientific illiterates, and apparently, it worked.

Real science is testable and falsifiable. Computer models predicting the future are neither, so they are not science. Nobel prizes arising from that work are scientifically meaningless.

In layman’s terms, I could produce a computer model saying that 30 years from now space aliens will invade. Scientifically, my model is as scientific as the Nobel Prize winners Climate model. Both are untestable and not falsifiable. Because of that, neither are science.

His was infinitely more profitable though. It pays to please the elite.

#46 Bdwy on 09.14.22 at 5:58 pm

“a million dollar mortgage for a moldy stucco clad Vancouver special. Egads.

…..

To be fair, nobody has such a mortgage nor would any lender offer one.

The special next door is cleaner than spotless, stronger than a brick outhouse, fresh paint and new deck surface/cover . All services excellent. Dated and tacky decor unless you are 80 and Italian but in mint condition.

Assessment for structure is 66k.

The mortgage is for the dirt, where it should be.

#47 Ken R on 09.14.22 at 6:10 pm

‘You’ll forgive me if I don’t think about monetary policy”

I think that statement is becoming more evident every day.

#48 DMC on 09.14.22 at 6:13 pm

@ Soren
(not me, still up about 7% YTD, it’s the rest of yours fault).

———————-

You know what they say; PROOF or it never happened. If you’re positive for the year, why aren’t you running the world largest hedge fund by now?
I call BS

#49 Kilt on 09.14.22 at 6:14 pm

“Experience and wisdom tend to do that. – Garth”

Can’t really disagree with that.

The whole WFH, Quiet quitting, Great Resignation, and Job Hoping. This existed before (maybe not so much the Great Resignation). Job Hoping – how many careers have you had Garth? WFH – I’ve had friends and co-workers who have worked from home for years. Covid just reduced the number of office visits from a couple of times per year or quarter to none at all. Quiet quitting – lots of people just want to work and collect a paycheck. Stay clear of the work politics and not have to deal with the extra stress involved. Companies need people who want to improve things, make them more efficient, grow the company. But they also need people who will do the grunt work and not expect to get a new title and raise every six months. The same people who are less likely to job hop.

Kilt.

#50 Kilt on 09.14.22 at 6:16 pm

Hopping, not hoping!

Kilt

#51 Earlybird on 09.14.22 at 6:21 pm

#37 AM in MN
“Scrap early cpp , except for medical exemption”….crazy talk!

Try a trade for 40 years….you must have an easy, fluffy profession…

It’s your earnt money to begin with….

#52 Ballingsford on 09.14.22 at 6:23 pm

Some people around here, Ottawa, are trying to sell their new home before taking possession of it for the same price they paid. Offering reasons such as ‘circumstances have changed’. Yah, could be divorce, illness, etc.

Could also be that they got their pre-approval a year and a half ago at 2%, and then when they have to do the financing again 90 days out from possession date, the mortgage is now at 5% and they can’t afford it or the bank won’t give them the loan.

If that’s the case, would they lose the down payment if they can’t sell the house? Also, the house wouldn’t be worth as much as when they signed 1.5 yrs ago and they likely wouldn’t get the cost they purchased it for.

#53 Ken R on 09.14.22 at 6:27 pm

#17 IHCTD9 on 09.14.22 at 4:29 pm
We’re just not going to get anything fixed in this country until Trudeau is sent packing. That’s a fact.

Agreed, but can PP beat him in a general election? I am not that convinced.

#54 Brian on 09.14.22 at 6:35 pm

A Major Economic Powerhouse (Germany) is Crumbling and is On the Brink of Collapse

Germany’s economy is on the brink of collapse as the energy-starved country faces a complete shutdown of its manufacturing base this winter. The best case for Germany, and the broad Eurozone, is a recession with the more likely case a depression. Investors should be concerned, as the German economy has a strong history of leading the U.S. economy into recessions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rV82wrH4q8Y

#55 fishman on 09.14.22 at 6:37 pm

Ponzie, your giving away your Low German origins. Whats wrong with a Mercedes for our Queen’s last ride? She had lots of noble German blood in her by both birth & marriage , of course, she was half Scottish. There were a few drops of the ancient English lineage in her, but not that much.

#56 Faron on 09.14.22 at 6:45 pm

#40 Yukon Elvis on 09.14.22 at 5:20 pm

You should be in a SE Asian jail “if you know what I mean”. Frankly, seeing that 3/4 of your comments are “Faron needs meds” says way more about you than me.

#57 Steven Rowlandson on 09.14.22 at 6:47 pm

I am just doing a test message to see if my new and activated email accounts work and allow me to comment.

In respect to comment 52 people really need to learn to take a sane approach to home buying and realize that it is not an investment vehicle and it is merely a place to live bought at equal to or less than 3 years pay based on one income with a 25% down payment and if you have to low ball your offer to fit your financial abilities within the 3 years pay rule then that is what you must do and it is for your own good. If you can’t get a home on that basis it isn’t your fault. The vendor is trying to get rich at your expense and you don’t owe him or her that.

#58 miketheengineer on 09.14.22 at 7:01 pm

Garth et al:

I don’t know what the currently average income is for a married couple in Ontario. For giggles lets say it is 150, now multiply it by 3….that gives 450. If 3 times your income is the most you should mortgage, and the average home price is 1 million….prices have a long way to go downward.

But will they go down much more? That is the big question. I don’t think the Canadian government should do anything….to help anyone, anymore than they have already. The average canadian JOE, loves his home more than his spouse. So to keep his home, he will rent out rooms or basement. Lease it to some renters, and move back home with momma…and hope she make good pasta. I highly doubt home prices drop more than 10% more than the have already….as people will not sell for a loss, but will do everything to keep their properties.

Just my thoughts on La Bella Casa.

Too bad Ontario didn’t give a holiday for us to mourn the Queen….it sucks to be us. But the Feds get all the perks. I guess I will have to turn the TV on as I watch from home and do my work

#59 Bdwy on 09.14.22 at 7:10 pm

Btw that 66k special sold recently for 2.25m (maybe 1.9 today?)the new owners are dropping $$$ to update everything.

//////////

45 Covid Variant Math on 09.14.22 at 5:55 pm
… witch doctor-ery Climate stuff from yesterday

…… awww, cmon man just drink this Kool aid and it will all make sense

///////////

#48 DMC on 09.14.22 at 6:13 pm

@ Soren
(not me, still up about 7% YTD, it’s the rest of yours fault).

———————-
#48 DMC on 09.14.22 at 6:13 

You know what they say; PROOF or ….
I call BS

………

No comment on his portfolio but mine was clearly advocated here at least a few times. Trades usually posted in real time(ish)
Ytd over 10% with a Supreme bone head trade (loss of 7%)

It’s the basic 70/30. 70 brk.b and 30 oil.

2 sells of brk were posted here, most recently 2 weeks ago. One buy.
No trades on zeo etf. Less than 1% is dividends.

Don’t work for nobody but me.

#60 Søren Angst on 09.14.22 at 7:19 pm

#48 DMC

Hint:

yeah oil

One of my ETFs:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NXF:TSE?window=YTD

It also has a yield of about 8.3% paid qtrly; thus, YTD Daily Total Return = 35.95%.

Another yeah oil I own pays a yield of 35.2% monthly. Price negative YTD 13.6% but who cares with that yield.

Other ETF I own pays a monthly yield of 18.6%, price YTD -5.4% … again, with that yield who cares about price.

Would be up more if it were not for the TWTR Albatross shares I own, only single stock pick.

—————-

Garth, Doug, Ryan et. al. correct about ETFs, oil, high div and value not growth.

– What happens when you LISTEN to them.

Who’s the BS’r now eh?

#61 opee on 09.14.22 at 7:31 pm

Central banks, of each major country, receives the now newer high interest rates returns. Possible you can inform us where those monies go, who benefits and by how much, at each level, until it reaches the top of the main money supply source. Does Canada indirectly benefit from the higher rate. Just curious. thanks GT

#62 IHCTD9 on 09.14.22 at 7:44 pm

We’re likely headed for RE values to land somewhere in the 2017-18 range after all is said and done. But the gargantuan Trudeau debt will remain. Hence the international predictions that Canada will light roughly dead last for GDP growth among OECD ranked nations. Canada will be the next Greece. 3-4 decades of crap living on the way. An entire generation climbing uphill. We’re going to get exactly what we asked for, homies. Woke doctrine, and a rented 500 sf shitbox for all.

Voting has consequences kids. From here on in, your bed is made primarily by you. There’s little time (if any) left to right the ship. Us crustomudgeons don’t care either way. We’re doing great – having built a life under classic good Canadian governments of the past. The choice is yours.

#63 Faron on 09.14.22 at 7:50 pm

#45 Covid Variant Math on 09.14.22 at 5:55 pm

Nobel Prize winners Climate model.

winner’s

But, hey, keep up the good work. You are the kind of hero we deserve — a person who encourages people to run out and gather fish when an unexpected low “tide” suddenly appears. We know you are racist and from Calgary, but please tell us if you are an engineer? Shoot for the trifecta, you can do it bud.

#64 Concerned Citizen on 09.14.22 at 7:54 pm

If the Trudeau Liberals step in to rescue the housing market, he can kiss government goodbye next election. His support among young people – who remain hopelessly, despondently price out of housing – will crater.

In fact, just fold up the country at that point. You can’t have a country if you continually screw over your young people so severely at every turn. Young people – especially educated young people – have options that don’t involve staying in Canada and paying a mortgage until they drop dead.

Nationally home prices are up like 75-80% since Trudeau came to power a mere 7 years ago. if he steps into protect those absurd, unsustainable gains, it will be a jaw-dropping display of horrendous public policy.

#65 THE DANDADA on 09.14.22 at 8:09 pm

This government is a disaster.

Job openings at record levels yet their going to print more money and hand it out to slouches who don’t want to better themselves. Then they got to nerve to turn around and raise taxes on those who work the hardest.

I’m so done with this Country. Makes me sick to my stomach.

#66 Broader Mind on 09.14.22 at 8:35 pm

During what must have been peyote driven hallucinations I recall thinking that not only are the present bond yields inverted but rather perverted. It’s what would happen if the BOC purchased almost half the float of bonds in a rather short time then decided to protect that investment and not return them to market. Pretty bad dream , people would start to say 5% mortgages are high. I guess the only investment that still makes sense is can’s of soup. Buy now and sell for big profit in the future.

#67 IHCTD9 on 09.14.22 at 8:40 pm

#53 Ken R on 09.14.22 at 6:27 pm
#17 IHCTD9 on 09.14.22 at 4:29 pm
We’re just not going to get anything fixed in this country until Trudeau is sent packing. That’s a fact.
——-

Agreed, but can PP beat him in a general election? I am not that convinced
———

My prediction is… maybe. Time will tell, but I won’t be giving much of a rip until we’ve got at least 8 years of hardcore fiscal conservative majority governments under our belt. That’s the price of Trudeau. It’ll be about then when the sun might be finally peeking out over the horizon. Until such time, I’m pretty much just a spectator on the front porch. Rum and Coke in hand, and watching the show from a safe distance.

#68 bubu on 09.14.22 at 8:47 pm

“Almost four in 10 households with mortgages face renewal in the next 18 months. Virtually all of them will end up paying more.”

Nope! I’ll pay the mortgage off.. 80k invested vs 80k pay the rest of the mortgage…. good return if I pay the mortgage.. .no risk on that return….

Shovel more equity into a declining, non-paying asset. No risk there. – Garth

#69 Quintilian on 09.14.22 at 8:47 pm

“Will the Conservatives campaign on giving people less? Are you kidding?”

Blinded by the unwarranted hatred for Trudeau, some of the Canadian Retrumplicans cannot understand that Pepe won’t /can’t do much about what his bombasting implies.

What a bitter disappointment it will be when Pepe’s thirst for power, steers him toward the centre.

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.22 at 8:56 pm

@#36 Kilt
“I know Nursing Students who only go to campus for practicum work. Most coursework is online.”

+++
Unfortunately….true.
Several relatives that are nearing the end of their nursing careers.
All RN’s (Registered Nurses).
They cringe at the quality of the Nurses with Bachelors of Nursing or Masters of Nursing.
Show up at the hospital ready to work.
Never given a needle to a “live” patient…. dummies, cadavers, all got jabbed.
No real squirmy , jab phobic, warm patients.
One gal quit because, “she couldnt stand the sight of blood……”
After 4 years of schooling.

#71 Covid Variant Math on 09.14.22 at 8:58 pm

#63 Faron on 09.14.22 at 7:50 pm
#45 Covid Variant Math on 09.14.22 at 5:55 pm

Nobel Prize winners Climate model.

winner’s

But, hey, keep up the good work. You are the kind of hero we deserve — a person who encourages people to run out and gather fish when an unexpected low “tide” suddenly appears. We know you are racist and from Calgary, but please tell us if you are an engineer? Shoot for the trifecta, you can do it bud

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

And I’ll take another win on that comment.

When you have nothing to counter my argument with but making up things I didn’t say and then calling me racist, I have no choice but to accept you’re surrender.

I’ll take the win.

Next player please.

#72 Entrepreneur on 09.14.22 at 9:06 pm

I think we need Divine Interception of some kind and real soon!

Everyone should keep talking/texting expressing yourself and not just here but on stations like Clyde Do Something, mistersunshinebaby, etc. as more speak up this gets the ball rolling, faster and thicker.

Not only will the working class be paying this printing money for generations but lives are being destroyed or lost!!

I hear you #30 Chalkie, well written and explained it exactly how it is trying to buy a home (not a house like the real estate agents call it). Keep spreading those exact words out, get the ball rolling.

Rent is inflated beyond able to exist. And incidents like a landlord/developer evicted a family man, wife, two little kids, gave them a two month notice to find a place in this insane/one-side market. Like really, like brutally cold.

Another case is father of three children rent kept on increasing until he could not pay that high rent (as the landlord can get someone else). He moved his family on some land with an old moble trailer with no running water and no toilet. He is fixing it to improve conditions, livable.

Keep those stories coming because if we do not speak up we will be ignored. We pay the taxes but we get sh*t on all the time and every which way.

And I agree, soon no point working anymore with that kind of disrespectful attitude from all angles.

Power to the people, the taxpaying citizen!!!

#73 Dr V on 09.14.22 at 9:13 pm

158 Faron

“Congrats. And, no, of course not. It should be obvious that I don’t……..If you don’t get that distinction, please revisit basic logic and contact me later. Sorry for the snark………………….”
——————————————-

I simply asked a question. Your earlier comment
labelled a poster as “dumb/arrogant” and immediately follow with “Of course” you are from Calgary etc.

I have no idea who emails you, so my query is perfectly logical.

But thank you for the clarification.

#74 Faron on 09.14.22 at 9:22 pm

#71 Covidiot invariably null on 09.14.22 at 8:58 pm

Congrats, you did win. You won yesterday when I awarded you the gold medal for stupid comments.

I am under no obligation to lead you through the reams and reams and reams and reams of papers showing the real, akshual, honest to goodness science that stands behind climate modelling and the decades of work that stands behind the conservatively worded IPCC reports. If you can’t imagine how a climate model’s projections (they don’t make predictions) could be tested and falsified, then you aren’t going to be amenable to any explanation. But none of your comments have been in good faith, so this has all been a pointless exercise anyway.

“Just ask Calgarians … Even my old house flooded”

From Calgary. And:

“Even the Natives were smart enough ”

Is racist.

And if you think I interpreted you having made statements about tsunamis, well, you can’t be helped. Not sure where you think I put words in your mouth.

C’mon, just tell us you are some kind of engineer. It would make my night. I’ll send you a jar of delicious blackberry jam from the batch I’m making now. Tell you what, I’ll just leave it at Cadence coffee in Bowness.

#75 45north on 09.14.22 at 9:24 pm

The likely outcome: several (perhaps many) years of inflation, stubbornly high interest rates, structural unemployment and political strife. The economy and markets will adapt. The wealth divide will grow. The indebted will feel betrayed.

I see parallels with the housing crisis. The Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford commissioned the Housing Affordability Task Force. It made its final report, January, this year. The report called for drastic change to the zoning by-laws. Just about the elimination of the zoning by-laws. So what happened? There was a general election. Doug Ford buried the Task Force. Bill 109 was the cover. Oh and by-the-way, the other political parties went along with the cover-up. He won the general election with a bigger majority. The net result was just about zero. There’s no new housing being built. Well that’s not quite true. Building projects that had been started, still are being built. Well most of them but the housing market has collapsed. There is absolutely no reason for a developer to launch a new project. Prices are dropping, costs are rising. You’d be way better off with a balanced diversified portfolio.

I see parallels with inflation, high interest rates, and unemployment. The government is aware of the problems but does not come up with solutions. Because it has none.

#76 Lolo on 09.14.22 at 9:25 pm

I remember my first mtg, about 128K at 5.34% for a condo that cost $169K in midtown Toronto. I think it was around the year 2000 and I was making 65K. Single income. Was scared to death that it was ‘too much debt’. Ha!

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.22 at 9:42 pm

Faron drinking a bit too much sugary coffee today?

You remind me of Alan Fotheringham’s description of defendant Fay Leung’s trial.

She was testifying in perfect English until she became agitated at the line of questioning from the Crown Prosecutor .

“She sounded like a chipmunk on Benzedrine….”

#78 Shawn on 09.14.22 at 9:51 pm

Rents up bigly

I hear reports that rents are much higher all over the country.

At least some of these renters can look to buy a house instead. That will free up their existing rental unit for new tenants and will help put downward pressure on rents. So basically they will be doing a public service especially if they contract to get a new home built, adding to supply.

Alberta is the best place to do so.

#79 Greg on 09.14.22 at 9:53 pm

And just like that, most everything recovered from Tuesday’s one day CPI doomy downtick.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.22 at 9:53 pm

Anyone wondering about how bad the smoke is in the Lowerbrainland …
Check out the time lapse.

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/watch-time-lapse-captures-smoke-blanketing-metro-vancouver-5817160

Last weekend was brutal.
Worst air quality….in the world.
Almost as bad as me…in an elevator.

#81 Sponge on 09.14.22 at 9:54 pm

Read this… the federal bureau of statistics reports the median personal income as $41,200 in 2020.Jul 22, 2022
So median is much more revealing than average.. read it again! Double it. Now we have a couple or family! 82K! I see a lot of statements on the comment section of this blog that are so foolhearty to assume the average family is ok with this inflation. With investment and real estate being most topics on this blog, try to vision the average median family. 82K… The middle class is slipping away.. Your wisdom is appreciated.. How can we save it most honorable Garth?

#82 CJohnC on 09.14.22 at 9:56 pm

The downside of things looking worse and worse on the greedflation issue is that eventually the poop will hit the fan as in 2008 because the big US banks are in worse shape because of derivatives than they were in 2008.

An interesting read:
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/09/the-market-is-freaking-out-over-the-potential-for-a-perfect-storm-fed-tightening-shaky-mega-banks-and-a-sharp-decline-in-household-wealth/

#83 MD on 09.14.22 at 9:59 pm

@#5 Love_The_Cottage
What the banks are trying to the the Mr Budget will
Balance itself is that 4600 million distributed to 2 million of previlged population will let them go for an extra steak dinner or a extra pair of Nikes and hence keep the inflation high .

#84 CJohnC on 09.14.22 at 10:05 pm

The thing about Trudeau’s recent new $billions of largesse to remember is that he is simply paying for Jagmeet and his peoples support. It was the same with the original planned CERB and the enhanced (to include students etc) that Jagmeet pressured Trudeau into. It was to keep Jagmeet and his people’s support.

#85 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.22 at 10:09 pm

#154 PBrassseur on 09.14.22 at 1:08 pm
@#133 “Carlsberg A/S said it might need to “significantly reduce” or halt beer production in Poland due to a shortage of liquid CO2. ”

That’s right, no C02 means no life on earth and even worse, no beer!
——————
No worry.
There will always be artificial piss beer like Budweiser.

#86 Faron on 09.14.22 at 10:19 pm

#73 Dr V on 09.14.22 at 9:13 pm

my query is perfectly logical

I have nothing against you and appreciate your discourse. Unfortunately, your query is not logical in fact. I have to jar that jam, so I won’t explain it in detail other than to say it’s a one to many fallacy. Simple analogy:

You are a hornet. I claim “when I get stung it’s almost always by hornets”. Does that mean you stung me? No. Adding in the second layer of where the hornet is from doesn’t change things. Your logic is faulty and spurred by (understandable) defensiveness.

Aside from the list of engineers commenting here who act in bad faith and are embarrassingly malinformed about climate science and those who appear in my email inbox, I have nothing against other engineers anywhere just as I have nothing against hornets. I’ve made this clear time and time again here. The pattern is undeniable in my experience and those two things (the general neutral stance and the pattern can peacefully coexist).

#87 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.22 at 10:28 pm

#55 fishman on 09.14.22 at 6:37 pm
Ponzie, your giving away your Low German origins. Whats wrong with a Mercedes for our Queen’s last ride? She had lots of noble German blood in her by both birth & marriage , of course, she was half Scottish. There were a few drops of the ancient English lineage in her, but not that much.
—————————
Not the way my post was intended.
Brits don’t like the Germans very much and vice versa.
So seeing the “Queen of England” being driven is a German Limousine, rather than a Rolls Royce must have rubbed some Brits the wrong way.
Btw, did you see Prince William and his wife following the procession in an Audi Q7?
Probably means nothing, other than they appreciate a quality car.

#88 IHCTD9 on 09.14.22 at 10:33 pm

#68 bubu on 09.14.22 at 8:47 pm

Nope! I’ll pay the mortgage off.. 80k invested vs 80k pay the rest of the mortgage…. good return if I pay the mortgage.. .no risk on that return….
—-

LOL!

Like I said earlier – here on the porch, Rum and Coke in hand – watching the show from a safe distance…

Seriously, there’s never been a better time to be an OSC old school fiscal Conservative. It don’t matter who wins – we keep winning bro!

We don’t even have to try. If Trudeau stays in power past 2025, my backwater, redneck real-tree camo-clad bunker complex will eventually hit 7 figures, while I’m busy rebuilding the tracks on my little dozer. Sorry wut? My house is worth what? It’s like forgetting a long weekend is coming up.

I’m in, no matter who wins, I’m in homie!

#89 Yukon Elvis on 09.14.22 at 10:40 pm

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.22 at 9:53 pm
Anyone wondering about how bad the smoke is in the Lowerbrainland …
Check out the time lapse.

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/watch-time-lapse-captures-smoke-blanketing-metro-vancouver-5817160

Last weekend was brutal.
Worst air quality….in the world.
Almost as bad as me…in an elevator.
++++++++++++++++
Kelowna has been pretty bad too. Only Lahore, Pakistan had worse air quality than us the other day. We were second worst in the world.

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.22 at 10:44 pm

#86 Faron
Best post ever
Engineers are just plummers with a degree.
And condescending as hell.

#91 Summertime on 09.14.22 at 10:48 pm

Government can not be a solution for the very problems it persistently creates.

CHMS, monetary and fiscal ‘policies’ have one thing in common – supporting ever higher house prices that drives credit up and hence inflation that then reduces temporary asset prices but then drives up permanently prices of essentials and services in cycles.

For the profit of the banks and the oligopolies (in intentionally highly regulated environment in order to discourage competition and new entrants), ‘sustainability’ of the debt through inflation
and temporary for the benefit of the asset owners….

but with nobody left to pay the bill, the little average Joe is bankrupt and unable to compete with diminished productivity (it requires investments, not credit).

So fun times ahead.

As I said long time ago, a decade or more of high inflation, 10-15 % of necessities, ‘CPI’ at 5-6 % rates strongly negative, CPP and benefit increases of 2-3 %

Until the ‘excesses are cleared’.

There is no way the current resource constraint and consumption based economy can provide for the ongoing profits of the big business, house and asset owners, the huge debt with cash strapped and unable to consume average citizen.

So inflation was chosen to ‘solve’ the issue, it is by design.

Bad actors like the Tiff screwed up, his ‘assurance’ that rates will stay low for a long time was the worse call ever, but was clearly given as an advice to the debtors turning them into credit junkies. And he apparently got bonus for that, for a work well done, is that the real mandate that he has vs. the BS spewed in the media?

The credibility is the least of the problems here, the destroyed standard of living deserves some accountability. Firing the boss of the BoC is the least that can be done, reorganizing the whole debt driven financial system is imperative, what can not go on will simply stop.

#92 Russ on 09.14.22 at 11:04 pm

Faron on 09.14.22 at 4:37 pm

#153 Russ on 09.14.22 at 1:07 pm

I don’t have much to say about e-mail clients. Maybe try emacs.
=====================

Okay Faron,

Considering your excellent advice with Proton mail and experience with Linux systems I thought to reach out in case you have some knowledge on this Pandora application.

This comment section can be a good resource sometimes.

Cheers, R

#93 DON on 09.14.22 at 11:30 pm

A little tense tonight in the comments section.

Begs the question…do solar flares (space weather) affect our moods? or is it just a sign of the times?

The last two weeks have been nasty on many fronts. Summer is OVER but the calm and solitude of winter beckons.

Enoy life folks and don’t sweat the small stuff.

And God Save This Blog. Garth provides an active platform that is unique and by far the best in the World in every thinkable way (especially the no up voting on comments).

Let’s be Thankful for that!

To your good health blog dogs.

Dog And God Save Garth!

#94 AM in MN on 09.15.22 at 12:14 am

If the “climate science” was so settled, then why the need for so much fraud?

I started taking this seriously after the Earth Summit in Rio in ’92. Way too many global marxists on board for this not to be on the level.

It is basically political science. First you come up with a solution, always involving more big government and less individual freedom and prosperity, then you find the “problem” (who doesn’t moan about the weather!), and then you conduct “science” to prove it.

The problem is, ALL of those predictions have been false. Those great Scientists like Al Gore and AOC have told us that we shouldn’t even be here!

And I DO work with many Engineers, sometimes in meetings with up to a dozen. They make our modern civilization work, such that the womenfolk (like my wife and every other woman she knows) can come home and flick on lights, computers, communications, safe water, sewer, heating and cooling, safe transportation and on and on and on, without ever having to know how any of it works.

The “scientists” are the ones pushing for us to go backwards and get rid of so much of what works, in the hopes of changing the weather.

Sorry, not going to join you.

Faron, have you ever been to an industrial greenhouse where they pump in CO2 to regulate the level at about 900 – 1000PPM? They grow all sorts of fresh veggies when it’s -30C outside. They know what they’re doing. Now imagine what happens to plant growth globally with higher CO2 levels, hint…it’s all good!

BTW, when is that chief fraudster Mann going to publish the source code to the hockey stick graph?

Spend some time researching the scientists who are studying the output of the Sun, the source of all energy. It turns out not to be constant. In fact, it seems to go in cycles, both long and short, which, as Mr. Fourier teaches, leads to extreme peaks at resonant points. Think, medieval warm period, when Europe’s population tripled, or mini-ice age. All happened long before the invention of the Chevy Silverado and Costco.

I’ll stick with my affluence and comforts for now…

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.15.22 at 12:16 am

77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.22 at 9:42 pm
Faron drinking a bit too much sugary coffee today?

You remind me of Alan Fotheringham’s description of defendant Fay Leung’s trial.

She was testifying in perfect English until she became agitated at the line of questioning from the Crown Prosecutor .

“She sounded like a chipmunk on Benzedrine….”
————————————
Reminds me of the “faaantastic Zalm” and his Fantasy Garden and the envelope.
Still can’t figure out how he made Premier.
Well, he promised to reduce the price of a six pack by a buck to help out Joe SixPack.
But like a true politician, he never followed thru.

#96 DON on 09.15.22 at 12:37 am

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.22 at 8:56 pm
@#36 Kilt
“I know Nursing Students who only go to campus for practicum work. Most coursework is online.”

+++
Unfortunately….true.
Several relatives that are nearing the end of their nursing careers.
All RN’s (Registered Nurses).
They cringe at the quality of the Nurses with Bachelors of Nursing or Masters of Nursing.
Show up at the hospital ready to work.
Never given a needle to a “live” patient…. dummies, cadavers, all got jabbed.
No real squirmy , jab phobic, warm patients.
One gal quit because, “she couldnt stand the sight of blood……”
After 4 years of schooling.

******
Yup my older sis is a Registered Nurse, she graduated from UBC with a Bachelor of Applied Science. She had to take math, calculus, physics, chemistry and Biology plus pyschology in her first two years. Her daughter(s) did not have to. I do not have a personal doctor but I do have a sis with 25+ years of experience.

#97 Covid Variant Math on 09.15.22 at 12:39 am

The only reason you think anything I said is racist is because you live in a world where you see everything as racist. That’s a tough world to live in. Best of luck with that view.

#98 DON on 09.15.22 at 12:41 am

#89 Yukon Elvis on 09.14.22 at 10:40 pm
#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.14.22 at 9:53 pm
Anyone wondering about how bad the smoke is in the Lowerbrainland …
Check out the time lapse.

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/watch-time-lapse-captures-smoke-blanketing-metro-vancouver-5817160

Last weekend was brutal.
Worst air quality….in the world.
Almost as bad as me…in an elevator.
++++++++++++++++
Kelowna has been pretty bad too. Only Lahore, Pakistan had worse air quality than us the other day. We were second worst in the world.

********
Sorry Guys. There was a big 420 mary jane occurrence in Coombs on Van Isle. It’s happens daily.

#99 Mousey on 09.15.22 at 2:19 am

#27 Doug T, you forgot to mention the Tang. Never understood the powdered milk. It was grey in colour and tasted like chalky water. Only families doing much better financially then mine used it. Go figure.

#100 DJT on 09.15.22 at 5:20 am

What we need is Poilievre to clean up the banking system, sounds like a complete mess.

#101 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.15.22 at 6:22 am

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.14.22 at 10:44 pm
#86 Faron
Best post ever
Engineers are just plummers with a degree.
And condescending as hell.

Hah..right.. I’m sure it’s the “German Accounting” that you rave about when you’re showing off your little Audi there Ponse…

#102 Dharma Bum on 09.15.22 at 7:53 am

I like that Vespa.
Please move the dog so I can take that scooter for a little spin.
Very urban chic.
It would turn a lot of heads in Wiarton.

#103 Steven Rowlandson on 09.15.22 at 7:57 am

Garth once upon a time people got 7% on their savings accounts so what did they pay on their mortgages? It sure wasn’t equal to or less than 7%.

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22 at 8:56 am

@#101 Im gonna
“Hah..right.. I’m sure it’s the “German Accounting” that you rave about when you’re showing off your little Audi there Ponse…:

++++

Audi?
Nah .
He drives a volvo station wagon.
Safe, practical, boring.
Like most accountants.
( Anyone notice Volvo drivers NEVER turn right on a red light? Bizarre but true..)

#105 The matrix reloaded on 09.15.22 at 9:02 am

21 Neo on 09.14.22 at 4:35 pm
Over my 50 years I simply can’t believe what a 3 rd world dump this county has become. If not for all the wonderful diversity we enjoy, we would have nothing at all.

Lmao…good pun

#106 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22 at 9:38 am

Ponzies Pilsner
“There will always be Budweiser”

+++
I look at Budweiser as the MacDonalds of beer.
The taste is predictably boring (like accountants), but you know exactly what it will taste like in Prince Rupert or Peterborough.
Consistency not craft brewed.
That is what people want and why they buy it.

https://www.wisk.ai/blog/top-selling-beers-of-2020-based-on-sales-data

Hence the top selling beer in the world…
#1 Bud Light.
#2 Corona
#3 Coors Light
# 4,5,6 Chinese

Once again Zee the Germans lose the (beer) war.

Do you have any more snobby, arrogant, boorish ( engineer in another life Ponzie ?) comments?

#107 NJ on 09.15.22 at 9:40 am

“Almost four in 10 households with mortgages face renewal in the next 18 months. Virtually all of them will end up paying more.”

Nope! I’ll pay the mortgage off.. 80k invested vs 80k pay the rest of the mortgage…. good return if I pay the mortgage.. .no risk on that return….

Shovel more equity into a declining, non-paying asset. No risk there. – Garth

____________________________________________

Open your eyes, Garth. $80k sitting in the bank is all fine and dandy. Eliminating your monthly mortgage payment, and freeing up that monthly cash flow has more value than just what is on paper (i.e. mental stress relief)

Not everything can be viewed on an Excel spreadsheet

____________________________________________

Furthermore, the $80k will have to be paid back, one way or another….whether you stretch it out over 10, 15, 30 years.

“I wish I took longer to pay my mortgage off”

-Said no one, ever

Some people just don’t get it. – Garth

#108 the Jaguar on 09.15.22 at 9:50 am

@#71 Covid Variant Math on 09.14.22 at 8:58 pm……..+++

This exchange begins to resemble the David Thorne/Overdue Account exchange.
Hilarious. Just goes to show what happens when Sail Away goes off pheasant hunting or mushroom plundering. Another victim must be located…. Non Plused won’t play the game of course, but any engineer or other will do…. ( spider drawing exchange below)

https://27bslash6.com/overdue.html

#109 Volvo driver on 09.15.22 at 9:56 am

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22 at 8:56 am
@#101 Im gonna
“Hah..right.. I’m sure it’s the “German Accounting” that you rave about when you’re showing off your little Audi there Ponse…:

++++

Audi?
Nah .
He drives a volvo station wagon.
Safe, practical, boring.
Like most accountants.
( Anyone notice Volvo drivers NEVER turn right on a red light? Bizarre but true..)
……….
Sorry, not true!

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.15.22 at 10:13 am

@#109 Volvo exceptionalist
“Sorry, not true!”

+++
You are a rarity among Volvo drivers.
( full disclosure: I once owned a Volvo and I turned right on red lights)
Many’s a time I have sat behind a Volvo driver at a red light.
No other traffic in sight.
And they sit….and sit….. aaaaaand sit.
Until that bloody light turns green.
Bizarre doesnt even begin to describe it.

#111 millmech on 09.15.22 at 10:17 am

Sail Away
Did you put a little in to ATXG, had a nice little run up will enjoy the small 40% gain this morning.

#112 Asteroids on 09.15.22 at 10:33 am

Abolish the CMHC and the mechanism for Main Street to be the bag holder in a housing crash Everything else will take care of itself.

#113 The Addict on 09.15.22 at 10:36 am

In fine form today. He’s the internet equivalent of a mean drunk when he gets wound up. Just let him get it off his concave chest.

Def off his meds, Yukon Elvis nailed it.

#114 Sail Away on 09.15.22 at 10:59 am

Man, I tell ya- I drop off the grid for a week and things go completely cattywampus in ‘civilization’.

The grouse fields are as good as they’ve ever been, dogs are fantastic and very tired with one chest injury requiring Griffin to be benched two days. Hitting a stick at speed is fairly common.
Back at it now.

Can’t stick around, sorry. Just in for resupply. Laters.

#115 Dogman01 on 09.15.22 at 10:59 am

#94 AM in MN on 09.15.22 at 12:14 am

If the “climate science” was so settled, then why the need for so much fraud?

——————————————

The Fraud supports the Graft and Cronyism.

It is not just the Marxists, there’s big money to be made…

Climate Change = Social License to send taxpayers money to friends of the regime.

Grifters, Alarmists and ideologues have latched themselves to the Climate Change cause. (Carney, the Doom-goblin Gretta, Guilbeault).

The “Adults in the Room”, the common sense party or whatever you call it soon catch on to these characters. Their hyperbole alienates us and creates a backlash.

We wonder:
– why is Nat Gas or Nuclear taboo?
– why a carbon Tax on us and no Tariffs on imports from places that have horrendous environmental standards? – does that not just move production to places with horrible environmental standards?
– what is this bat-shit crazy talk of no ICE vehicles in the 2030’s
– If it is an “emergency” ….really? an emergency?
– how does converting food to fuel make any sense?
– why just target our domestic O&G industry while It seems A-OK to import from horrible places?

We add it all up and reach a verdict, I think many are coming to the same conclusion. The only serious thing we see taking place is serious amounts of money being redirected by centralized power whom have a horrible track record in ethics or effectiveness.

I saw Bjorn Lomborg on a interview a few weeks ago, the guy has credibility. He was speaking of the $300 Billion US in a bill and how it will have next to zero impact on the Climate and what it could be used for instead.

#116 Faron on 09.15.22 at 11:01 am

#94 AM in MN on 09.15.22 at 12:14 am

Now imagine what happens to plant growth globally with higher CO2 levels, hint…it’s all good!

Don’t need to imagine. This has been studied ad nauseum. In nature any benefit is rapidly extinguished by lack of nutrients. The stress of a hotter more variable climate far outweighs the brief CO2 spurt.

Seriously people, STFU until you’ve done a little reading.

#97 Covid Variant Math on 09.15.22 at 12:39 am

Nope, that was a racist comment, full stop. If you are using racist language and didn’t intend to, then maybe look into a writing class so that you may express yourself more clearly.

#117 Don Guillermo on 09.15.22 at 11:02 am

It’s been an interesting week on the twitter front since Poilievre’s leadership win. The racist, misogynist, white supremacist rhetoric has amped up big time. We see it from certain commenters here and it gets tiring. I believe internationally the momentum against the woke is starting to build and it’s frustrating the left. All good.

My favourite recent story has been the Green Party meltdown over misgendergate. It’s nice to have some current event humour. How could anyone take these people seriously? They’re good at recycling though. Think the return of e-May. (that’s Liz not Ellie).

Jag. The spider payment letter was hilarious. Thanks for that.
CEF. Those Volvo drivers may from Quebec. Can’t turn on red there.
SA. Hurry back

#118 Faron on 09.15.22 at 11:07 am

#113 The Addict on 09.15.22 at 10:36 am

Bring out the shape-shifting anonymous trolls who live to drag out personal attacks when I rebut off-base comments. They have no facts to rely on so just get gross.

Just finished reading Hillary Clinton’s book “what happened”. The parallels between how she was mis_cast and trolled and attacked as a liberal to how I am (not to aggrandize myself) despite spouting facts are striking. Seems to be a conservative playbook.

#119 Don Guillermo on 09.15.22 at 11:24 am

Update.

CEF: Quebec updated their turn on red rule in 2003. Still can’t in Montreal apparently.

AM in MN: Thanks for your earlier posts on Combined Cycle power generation. I’ve worked on a couple and really enjoyed the experiences. Be prepared for a misogynist rant today from residents wokesters.

#120 Faron on 09.15.22 at 11:31 am

#108 the Jaguar on 09.15.22 at 9:50 am

Don’t lurch into this pile on. I sometimes think you are better than that, but you routinely show that I give you too much credit.

No, I attack people, especially anonymous randos, who make ridiculous claims about topics I know well. If someone expressed good faith curiosity or questioning they would get a good faith response. The rare times this happens (Russ, DR V) the discussion will remain civil although there is very often an entrenched obstinance and arrogance to those exchanges. Such as Russ’ implying that he has the expertise to even begone to understand the models.

When people attack Garth and his expertise it’s gross and he is rightfully snarky.

Finally, for the millionth time, engineers are great. Love ’em. Climate change denying nutter engineers I have no patience for. Like anti Vax nurses, it’s inexcusable and wildly arrogant.

Here’s the current list:

Covidiot variant null
The General piled in with a personal attack
Yukon Elvis piled in personal attack
DR V piled in for some reason
Old Boot piled in personal attack
AM in MN piled in with solar nonsense
The Jaguar personal attack
Imagonnaabesicka is imminent

Who did I miss? See how this works?

When I’m at it. AM in MN: “such that the womenfolk” is sexist.

#121 Faron on 09.15.22 at 11:53 am

#92 Russ on 09.14.22 at 11:04 pm

Okay Faron,

Considering your excellent advice with Proton mail and experience with Linux systems I thought to reach out in case you have some knowledge on this Pandora application.

This comment section can be a good resource sometimes.

Cheers, R

I use Thunderbird because its fast search can dig up emails quickly. But, it’s a resource hog if you have a large archive because it constantly indexes to enable that search.

Also, I typically use free open source software (FOSS) which has benefits and limitations. The latter you may not want to tolerate.

#122 Gravy Train on 09.15.22 at 12:12 pm

#108 the Jaguar on 09.15.22 at 9:50 am
This exchange begins to resemble the David Thorne/Overdue Account exchange.

Your take on the exchange is interesting—and the exact opposite of mine. To me, Covid Variant Math resembled David Thorne, not Jane Gilles. For example, see #131 Gravy Train on 09.14.22 at 7:33 am.

#123 Wrk.dover on 09.15.22 at 12:35 pm

Oops! The FANG’s have done it again!

#124 Chris on 09.15.22 at 12:45 pm

I love all the (presumably convoy-loving) commenters blaming Trudeau for all this. Keep that delusion going.

This increase has been in the works for a decade. Years of easy monetary policy that just happens to coincide with Boomers retiring en masse and downsizing while getting massive premiums for their decades-owned dwelling. Anybody who lived thru the 80’s and 90’s knew the prices were stupid 5 years ago let alone 6 months ago. I have zero sympathy. My biggest fear now is that those of us who avoided this pit will now have to shoulder the burden via taxes to help those who opted not to.

meanwhile the conservatives keep blaming Trudeau for worldwide inflation and other inane crap instead of looking at the real causes of problems, because it’s easier to get elected.. all the while braying about Facts without a hint of irony in their voice.

#125 WTF on 09.15.22 at 1:07 pm

#95 “She was testifying in perfect English until she became agitated at the line of questioning from the Crown Prosecutor .

“She sounded like a chipmunk on Benzedrine….”

—————————————————————–Heh forgot all about her, and the hats…….

Another Moniker Dr Foth gave her. “Lazer Lung Leung”

#126 IHCTD9 on 09.15.22 at 1:48 pm

Talking to a contact at a customer this am. He’s about ready to pack it in and head back home to India. Almost 5 years in, yet the math consistently won’t take yes for an answer. Works 80+ hours per week, and now understands the magnitude, timeframe, and likelihood of achieving his dream here.

Not surprisingly, he ain’t the only one:

https://betterdwelling.com/canada-just-saw-the-biggest-q4-for-residents-permanently-leaving-since-the-1970s/

Looks like Trudeau will be responsible not only for a 100% increase in public debt, and 100% house price increases – but also 100%+ increases in Canadian emigration.

Who could have guessed?

#127 jess on 09.15.22 at 1:58 pm

awesome! misinfo from some of those “christian nationalists” are just so wrong.

The student, Shiva Rajbhandari, was elected to the position by voters in Idaho’s capital last week, defeating an incumbent board member who had refused to reject an endorsement from a local extremist group that has harassed students and pushed to censor local libraries.

I also thoroughly appreciate all of the constituents who took time to write to the Board on the freedom to read. Book bans have no place in Boise! pic.twitter.com/n9qjVEokhs

Idaho’s Far Right Suffers Election Loss to 18-Year-Old Climate Activist

High school senior Shiva Rajbhandari won elected office in Boise, defeating an incumbent school board trustee backed by local extremists.
Robert MackeyRobert Mackey
September 13 2022, 12:09 p.m.

#128 IHCTD9 on 09.15.22 at 2:08 pm

#124 Chris on 09.15.22 at 12:45 pm

I love all the (presumably convoy-loving) commenters blaming Trudeau for all this. Keep that delusion going.

This increase has been in the works for a decade. Years of easy monetary policy that just happens to coincide with Boomers retiring en masse and downsizing while getting massive premiums for their decades-owned dwelling. Anybody who lived thru the 80’s and 90’s knew the prices were stupid 5 years ago let alone 6 months ago.
____

Trudeau:

100% increase in house prices
100% increase in debt
100% increase in people leaving Canada
100% responsible for sinking our economy for the next 40 years.

Don’t make excuses for Trudeau. He simply has no clue what’s going on, or any idea what he’s doing. Everyone knows it.

It’s obvious.

#129 jess on 09.15.22 at 2:18 pm

cachet ?

spac

https://theintercept.com/2022/09/12/keith-alexander-nsa-spac-investment-scheme/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=The%20Intercept%20Newsletter

#130 mike on 09.15.22 at 3:18 pm

God, Garth is such lefty. How can anyone support such a regime with the circumstance we are in nowadays, almost delusional supporting the left at this day and time. The cons will dig us out of this hole. Good thing Garth has a clear view on real estate though.

Love the way Libs call me a Con and the Cons call me lefty. Means I am just right! – Garth

#131 Covid Variant Math on 09.15.22 at 3:36 pm

Interesting that there are people on this blog who can read minds and then make up something unrelated based on their own imaginings.

And yet after all that word salad and hallucination, they think that they don’t have to answer my simple climate realted question.

That was a mean and dirty play, but I’ll take the win on that one as well.

Next.