Shortages

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RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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We live in unprecedented times to say the least. We’re still working through a devastating global pandemic, which continues to impact global supply chains, public finances, the healthcare system etc. In Europe we’re witnessing the worst war in that region since WWII due to some deluded and revisionist thinking of Putin in rebuilding the Russian Empire. Democracy in under assault in many countries by strong-arm leaders like Putin, Orban, Erdogan and Xi Jinping.

Inflation is at 40 year highs, rates are on the rise and Trump keeps shouting about some stolen election from two years ago. All of this is leading to major dislocations and shortages in the US/global economy.

One shortage that has me up at night is the apparent, and potentially structural, shortages of available workers in the US and Canada. While a good problem to have as it shows the underlying strength in our labour markets and economy, it’s becoming clear that we simply don’t have enough able-bodied people to fill all the available jobs today and in the future. This is the focus of today’s blog.

One set of economic indicators I look at to assess the conditions of the US labor market is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or the JOLTS numbers. That data can be seen in the chart below, which illustrates the labour shortage that exists today.

The US currently has over 11 million job openings, which is nearly double the current number of unemployed workers at roughly 6 million. Essentially, there are two job openings for every unemployed person in America, a level never seen in the history of these stats.

And this is in light of the fact that the US is currently experiencing its lowest levels of unemployment – currently 3.7% – since the late 1960s. So we have the lowest unemployment rate in over 60 years and yet still record job openings. What gives?

More Job Openings in US than Available Workers

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

In the US I see two dominant forces for this incredible strength in the labour market and in turn, the current shortage of workers.

First is population growth. Americans are not making as many babies as they once did and this is providing a drag on the pool of available workers. As seen in the chart below, US annual population growth was consistently in the 2% range in the early 1900s and again in the 1950s, following WWII. This has slowed to a crawl and last year was up a meagre 0.01%. Less babies means less available future workers.

US Annual Population Growth

Source: US Census Bureau

The second factor is net immigration, which in the US has slowed dramatically. Some of this is due to the fallout from Covid but there has also been a clear trend of lower immigration to the US in recent years. Immigration peaked at over 1,000,000 new immigrants in 2016 and dropped to just 200,000 in 2021. Stricter broader enforcement, lower caps on refugees, fewer work Visas have all contributed to this.

To put this into perspective, Canada saw a record 400,000 new immigrants come to our country in 2021, double that in the US. This, despite our population being roughly 1/10th of the US.

With lower population growth and fewer immigrants, it’s fairly easy to see how these labour shortages are materializing.

What are the consequences of these labour shortages?

First is on inflation and in particular, wage growth inflation. After years of stagnant wage growth, US wage growth has surged over the last year. Below I chart US average hourly wages, which are up 6% y/y. As I like to say, a little bit of wage growth is a good thing as it increases income, helps to keep up with inflation, and helps drive stronger consumer spending, which represents roughly 70% of the North American economy. However, a lot of wage growth can be a bad thing since it forces central banks like the Fed and Bank of Canada to aggressively hike interest rates as we’re seeing now.

Anecdotally, I’m hearing tons of stories of employers having to raise their wages to attract new workers. One client recently told me that he offered $30/hr for a general labourer (he used to pay $20/hr) and received one phone call with the individual saying he doesn’t get out of bed for less than $40/hr. Click.

A bar-owner friend of mine had to significantly increase his hourly wage and provide health care benefits to his staff and new hires. I worked in a bar for years while in university (no silver spoon here) and I was paid $6.50/hr with my only health care benefits being a crappy hamburger before my shift and a couple of beers after the close.

US Wage Growth is Surging

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Even more concerning is the potential for a ‘wage-price spiral’. Wikipedia defines a ‘wage-price spiral’ as wage increases that cause price increases which in turn cause wage increases, creating a positive feedback loop. This is very harmful to an economy and what the Fed is trying to choke-off before this becomes more permanent.

Wage-Price Spiral Explained

Source: WallStreetMojo

Other effects of labour shortages include lower economic and productivity growth, increased sick leave and mental health issues, lower corporate profitability and potentially lower equity and portfolio returns.

I continue to believe inflation is near or has already peaked and see it trending lower in the coming months. However, these looming labour shortages are real and could have lasting effects on our economy. This could lead to higher and sustained wage pressure, which could help to keep inflation elevated over the medium term. Gone are the days of 2% inflation, in my view.

I think based on this analysis we’re probably looking at higher inflation over the next say five years. Individuals, corporations and governments need to do everything they can to try to address these shortages, otherwise we could be looking at 3-4% inflation levels in the coming years, which wouldn’t be good for anyone.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

142 comments ↓

#1 LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo on 09.10.22 at 9:05 am

Pardon my basic understanding of the wage-price spiral, but my simplistic theory is that at some point, even the consumer will throw in the towel instead of paying $25+ for a burger. Then it all comes crashing to the ground and we go for an interest rate do-over?

#2 Earlybird on 09.10.22 at 9:17 am

I wonder if decades of no wage growth is connected to decline in birth rates?

Your employer friend had to increase wages to attract new workers…thats awful and just wrong!!

A bar owner had to offer health care and higher wage…thats just plain evil, what’s this world coming too……

Eye roll…

#3 TurnerNation on 09.10.22 at 9:18 am

The Monarchy matters not when the world has been taking over and under illegitimate leadership.
It is clear to most that T2, who snuck in under slim of margins of voter approval is send to destroy what’s left of this nation (As of March 2020 all the Former First World Countries are being remade with Corvid and Climate)
The UK just appointed (not elected by the populace!)
another leader. It will of course be Corvid and Climate.

BTW the House of Windor is total fiction. They are not even English by nature? These guys aslo knighted jimmy saville. Enough said.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Windsor
House of Windsor – Wikipedia
In 1917, the name of the British royal house was changed from the German Saxe-Coburg and Gotha to the English Windsor because of anti-German sentiment in the United Kingdom during the First World War.[1]

—-

Sticking with my call from last week that we are in a stealth Bull Market .
Top pick remains the oil services ETF

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=OIH

#4 Phylis on 09.10.22 at 9:20 am

Can you provide a percentage of the jobs avail in non/semi/professional skills kinda way? Just wondering.
And some of the professional postings i’ve seen look like a wishful thinking candidate requests to me. Kinda like employers are asking for the world and offering only competitive compensation packages. I know that’s how it goes, but how many are fishing for the trophy employees?

#5 The Joy of Steerage on 09.10.22 at 9:28 am

96 is the new retirement age… back to the office plebs!

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.10.22 at 9:34 am

It’ll be interesting to see how this “worker evaporation” is explained by Economists in the next decade or so.
Boomer mass retirement?
Millennial mass quitting?
Both?
Either way I’m seeing and hearing the same “no workers” complaint from coast to coast on my travels.
If this is hitting Western countries hard…
One wonders how China will handle their “one child” policy as cost of living ramps up and their aging population soars.

Robots my lad.
AI Robots will save us.
:0

#7 Flop… on 09.10.22 at 9:38 am

Morning Rhino, saw this inflation graphic recently in which it states, “The price of oil influences as much as 64% of food price movements.”

At the supermarket yesterday, I saw the Icecream I usually get 1.65 litres and they wanted 7 bucks.

They are trying to break me, but I am Icecream Strong.

I came home empty handed and got into one of my emergency Icecream tubs in the freezer…

M48BC

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/inflation-rising-food-energy-prices-impact-economy/

#8 Father's Daughter on 09.10.22 at 9:57 am

Great post today.
And yet, the same people who don’t want to have kids or complain about kids or having to contribute to education, childcare etc. also want to reduce immigration. Many immigrants are still happy to have a handful. But then of course we complain that they get CCB to help them out.
There are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who have recently arrived or are coming. They should help with the labour market shortage in Canada. They all need jobs, desperately. Many are skilled. Housing for newcomers has become increasingly futile. The young Ukrainian lady living with our family just signed a lease for a dated looking studio (Toronto) for $1700 plus utilities and tenant insurance. She found a full time job, after many months of searching, at a cafe. Minimum wage. Savvy people look for all kinds of side hustles (cash). Of course now we’ll have all of the people saying “you don’t have to live in Toronto.” Sure, but I saw a one bedroom basement apartment in Grimsby going for $1800 yesterday. I’ve seen absolute shithole rentals in Niagara Falls for $2000/month. Poor transit, far more depressing.
The only real way to make it out there today is to share housing. Canadians are terrible at it (apparently people do, in fact, need large single family dwellings for 1-2 people). Seems like alot of cleaning, stars, and utility bills to me. For the record, I think more communal living is a better way to live.

#9 THE DANDADA on 09.10.22 at 10:00 am

“we simply don’t have enough able-bodied people to fill all the available jobs today and in the future.”

WRONG!!!

We simply don’t have enough CORPORATIONS willing to pay a decent salary with great benefits to entice able-bodied people to come to work.

PROFITS,SHAREHOLDERS, & EXECUTIVE BONUSES ARE #1

Everyone else comes way down the list.

#10 Dharma Bum on 09.10.22 at 10:04 am

I think that the idea of workers being provided a couple of beers after their shift – REGARDLESS of the industry they’re working in – could be the solution to the labour shortage problem.

A brilliant idea for a perk.

Make it a six-pack!

Where do I sign?

#11 Derek Bannon on 09.10.22 at 10:10 am

Ryan, the problems we face are at the ballot box. Keep voting in far left goons and flakes and don’t expect things to change. That would be like the definition of insanity playing out. Right now the far left is tearing the guts out of stable civilization. Either that changes or decide to live in excrement for years to come until Smiths ” invisible hand” d codes for you in the guise of guillotines in town squares. People are only going to live in leftist excrement for so long before the ” mostly peaceful riots” aren’t red left but working class purple and everyone is in survival mode . “There will be blood” once people are starving and shivering in the dark under the blanket if phony climate ‘opportunists’.

#12 Blair on 09.10.22 at 10:11 am

I guess my concern is how any money can be made on investments (as in a B&D portfolio), if inflation is going to stay that high.

#13 Condor on 09.10.22 at 10:19 am

Great article Ryan. Indeed we are living in interesting times.

#14 Father's Daughter on 09.10.22 at 10:37 am

#10 Dharma Bum on 09.10.22 at 10:04 am
I think that the idea of workers being provided a couple of beers after their shift – REGARDLESS of the industry they’re working in – could be the solution to the labour shortage problem.

A brilliant idea for a perk.

Make it a six-pack!

Where do I sign?

———————————————

I was thinking the same. A free burger and a few beers sounds like a great deal to me. I’m in.

#15 Flop… on 09.10.22 at 10:47 am

This one was doing the rounds yesterday.

Air Canada customer service representative job posting for $16.50

At least if you get a job on the plane, you are going places…

M48BC

————————————————————————

“Air Canada customer service rep makes $16.56/hr.

A 1BR basement rents in Vancouver for $1,500.

So this bilingual CSR would need to spend 54% of their pretax income just for even the most basic accommodation.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/rohanarezel/status/1568330384726962177

#16 Ryan Lewenza on 09.10.22 at 10:55 am

Blair “I guess my concern is how any money can be made on investments (as in a B&D portfolio), if inflation is going to stay that high.”

You can still expect 6-7% returns. If inflation is higher interest rates will also be higher helping the 40%. Corporate revenues will adjust higher with inflation so this also helps profits and stock returns. The labour shortage could impact margins which is the concern. – Ryan L

#17 Stroller on 09.10.22 at 10:56 am

You mentioned Putin’s “revisionist” thinking. Do you perhaps mean “revanchist”?

#18 Show me the Money on 09.10.22 at 10:56 am

Canada in fact has lost jobs for the third straight month, yet rates continue to rise. If this tend continues the economy will be in bad shape and we will be soon be talking about deflation.

#19 TurnerNation on 09.10.22 at 11:00 am

Forcing Manufactuing, elsewhere.

.Defeated at the Supreme Court, Ontario will dramatically raise the industrial carbon price (globalnews.ca)

——-
Control over travel is Permanent. Say, wonder why the latest cheap EV SUV from GM has 300 miles of range max, on a good day, not cold, perfect conditions?
In almost 2023. Yet, in 1996 their EV (which was crushed) had a 140 mile range — almost 30 years ago? They are pulling our leg.

See http://www.ev1.org for the details

Why: you will not be entering or leaving your UN Smart City comrade. Too expensive. #essential travel only, #stayhome right? We were trained on it.
The groundwork is being fast laid:, city by city

.Ontario passes ‘strong mayor’ legislation, giving Toronto, Ottawa mayors veto power (cbc.ca)

.Toronto city council candidate wants to charge non-local drivers for entering downtown area (toronto.ctvnews.ca)

#20 Flop… on 09.10.22 at 11:03 am

Airlines get a bad rap, but they’ve been good to me.

I’ve tried to go to Mexico about 15 times, but can’t afford the airfare.

I mean, the airlines have been good in letting me on the plane in the first place, but they only take me halfway.

They have been kind enough to drop me off in San Diego 5 times, Phoenix 5 times and Texas 5 times though…

#21 anna on 09.10.22 at 11:16 am

What about Canada? Any info to share on this?

#22 Another possible factor regarding a worker shortage on 09.10.22 at 11:22 am

You did not mention the retirement of the Boomers. To be fair, this may not be as large a factor as the two you do mention. This is a large cadre of experienced and capable people, albeit more expensive (salaries & benefits).

As to Boomer retirement, what do you think about how this might affect the markets?

#23 Doug t on 09.10.22 at 11:25 am

The West is in decline – suffering from a generalized malaise and lack of intestinal fortitude – way to much navel gazing and pondering their existence all the while drifting into the abyss

#24 chalkie on 09.10.22 at 11:25 am

Good subject article that you put in today Ryan.

Canada bringing in 400,000 immigrants in 2021, and United States being 10 times our population vs United States bringing in 200,000 immigrants for 2021, this would equate to Canada bringing in 20 times more immigrants per population than United States, perhaps we can give Trudeau a star for this, but I am sure I can find many ways to take it away from him again, we don’t want his head to swell with pride.

The United States having two job openings for every unemployed worker points out there is a lot of pain the pipeline yet to surface, perhaps driving our BOC closer to 5%.

I like your display sign on signing bonus for Class AZ drivers, right now there are drivers who are staying the 90 days and quitting right after the bonus payouts, they jump around from one transportation company to another collecting up to 3 or 4 signing bonus a year, there are many, many, many transportation companies and private fleets willing to take the hit, fully knowing the driver will only stay for 90 days, they have a business to run and freight to move, in other words it’s the cost of doing business for now. Any company structuring the bonus longer than 90 days, like the driver has to stay for 180, 365 days etc., will continue to see their seats empty and don’t stand a change of recruiting the drivers.
Today’s labour shortage reminds me, only much more severe as the late 60’s when I first came to the big smoke to begin my career, there were more jobs than one could image, employers motivating many different trades to quit your employer and come work for them. The long-term lesson that came out of that was, people were jumping from job to job and never settling in on a career, at the end, they were left behind with little security and most likely no benefits or pensions, they are the ones today relying on Government handout, not their fault and that outcome can be blamed solely on the employers. Its very important to not just focus on today, but protect and look after tomorrow, employers must step up to the plate for our millennials.

#25 rampant inflation on 09.10.22 at 11:38 am

you’re a little late to the party Ryan. I posted the question to you a couple of years ago how your 60/40 portfolio would perform if we had another inflation problem like the 1970’s and you’re response ” not very well”.

i listened to your weekly call with Doug last week, where he claimed from 1973-1979, when inflation was high, gold went up 35% … i think you may want to look again. obviously, not correct.

inflation is now structural. it’s going to take a decade or more to take it out of the system again.

#26 Brian on 09.10.22 at 11:38 am

Don’t worry Ryan. I’m sure all those soon to be broke real estate agents can fill those jobs!

#27 The General on 09.10.22 at 11:39 am

Ya, you lost me on the first paragraph. You, like your boss man, just don’t get it, that it’s different this time. Europe is pooched going forward, and will drag us down with them. It’s all 1 man’s fault (Putin), and not the golden billion’s policies. Which is the neo-liberal rules based world order. Our pity party in the west is based on the fact that the other 7 billion souls on earth are going their own way, and won’t be bullied and manipulated any longer. The Golden Rule will once again apply : He who has the gold, makes the rules.

#28 Ryan Lewenza on 09.10.22 at 11:47 am

The General “Ya, you lost me on the first paragraph. You, like your boss man, just don’t get it, that it’s different this time.”

Famous last words. If I had a dollar for every time I heard “it’s different this time”. It rarely is. – Ryan L

#29 Penny Henny on 09.10.22 at 11:57 am

There never seems to be any mention that wage inflation will hurt a company’s bottom line and drag down it’s stock price.

#30 Love_The_Cottage on 09.10.22 at 12:00 pm

Comical and predictable that a post around historically low unemployment still results in most comments that the sky is falling. For those with an education this is the best of times.

#31 LG on 09.10.22 at 12:06 pm

Our current education system is more focused on indoctrinating students’ minds with Socialist ideologies instead of teaching students how to think, and how to learn.
Parents are not guiding their children into viable jobs.

Who is teaching the importance of being a productive citizen? We are producing mediocre people, resulting in a mediocre country.

Student loans should be restricted to the areas in the economy where we need trained people. Trades, logistics, engineering, medicine, computers. Reduce funding to the curriculums that have low value.

Do we need more psychologists? degrees in education? social studies? gender studies? art degrees? Maybe these are nice to have, but they are lower on the list of what is needed.

Times have changed, so should expectations.

Fund and support the needs, not the wants.

#32 The General on 09.10.22 at 12:08 pm

Buffet called derivatives financial weapon’s of mass destruction. The next shoe to drop. It begins…

#33 Joe on 09.10.22 at 12:10 pm

You lost me at strong arm dictators. As if the US and NATO aren’t just as bad trying to take over countries. Invading others for oil such as Iraq and responsible for the death of millions. There isn’t a war the US doesn’t like and the Ukraine one is their proxy war with Russia. If they wanted it to end they would have. Wars distract society from what’s really going on. Not saying Putin isn’t evil just saying many western leaders are also. They just hide it well like Trudeau.

#34 TalkingPie on 09.10.22 at 12:12 pm

It’s funny how the C suite justifies paying CEOs 100 times what they pay their front line people by saying they need to attract the top talent, but when there’s a shortage of rank and file people, they have conniptions about the market demanding a higher pay. It’s like all of a sudden the free market just isn’t fair, and something needs to be done about these lazy people refusing to work for the low wages that are being forced upon them.

#35 Leftover on 09.10.22 at 12:13 pm

I get why there’s a worker shortage in the USA (birthrate, immigration dropping), but why is there one in Canada?

We probably have the same birthrate problems, but with double the number of immigrants and 1/10th the population (therefor 20 times the immigration rate), why are there so many worker shortages here?

We had far more generous Covid relief, which we are just now unwinding, and our spectrum of social programs, from EI to child benefits, etc, is broader than in the States.

Maybe it’s finally come home to roost.

#36 Pylot Project on 09.10.22 at 12:22 pm

I’m going to (sort of) repeat here, what I posted yesterday. I’m calling BS on some of the employment numbers and the cries from business that they can’t find workers.

What kind of work are we talking about? No report ever clearly indicates this. Only that so many jobs are available. Is it all entry-level service work with a job requirements post so long, that you have to scroll 4-6 times just to get to the bottom?

Those of us in a higher level of career advancement are getting ignored by companies large and small. Multiple interviews, skills assessments, personality tests, and after all that, ghosted. Not even a thanks, but no thanks.

On LinkedIn and Indeed, one can see how many people have applied on a position. One job I recently applied on had over 100 people apply for a mid-to-senior level management position that was 100% in my wheelhouse as I’ve been in their industry for 20 years. I did a couple of interviews. A month goes by, no feedback and radio silence from my follow-up. Then I see the posting came up again. Of that 100+ people, I find it hard to believe that the company could not find one single person that qualified, whether it was me or anybody else. Stories like this are legion on LinkedIn.

Age-ism is one problem. HR filters older workers out before the hiring manager even sees the resumes. Second, the Applicant Tracking System (ATS) is a pain in the rear. If you don’t fabricate your resume using the precise keywords, your resume will end up in the digital shredder. Lastly, I find that companies do not want to train people any longer. If you can’t hit the ground running, they are not interested. This is particularly hard if you’re trying a career pivot with transferable skills. Then they complain they can’t find workers.

#37 Quintilian on 09.10.22 at 12:24 pm

#11 Derek Bannon on 09.10.22 at 10:10 am
“Ryan, the problems we face are at the ballot box. Keep voting in far left goons and flakes and don’t expect things to change.”

In other countries, where the vicious right rules, the problems are the same or worse.
England, and USA is an obvious example.

The distortions have been caused by the flippant abuse of monetary policy.

The rich got richer. But it was obscured by the deception of stealth inflation.

#38 Steven Rowlandson on 09.10.22 at 12:29 pm

RE#2 ” I wonder if decades of no wage growth is connected to decline in birth rates?”

If I had to venture a guess I would say that no wage growth and real estate price inflation is absolutely connected to decline in birth rates and I might add that various legal reforms since the 1960s didn’t help either.

#39 Søren Angst on 09.10.22 at 12:29 pm

I continue to believe inflation is near or has already peaked and see it trending lower in the coming months.
– Ryan

Not so sure on that Ryan, well, in the US. Most of their drop in inflation due to gas prices coming down.

Midterm elections near, oil down, once over, oil back up would be my guess.

Add to that:

1. Dec. 5 Russian oil ban by the EU + Maritime Insurance enforcement.

2. US sending its oil reserves to the EU in the meantime to keep it propped up (and probably more after Dec. 5).

= oil supply down, prices up.

Inflation will go back up again in the US. Likely in Canada? On the latter, who knows?

Not over yet Ryan by a long country mile.

The rest you said, I really liked.

————–

PS:

yeah my Cdn ETF

courtesy of Big 5 Cdn Banks surging as of late (de-boat anchoring?):

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=YTD

Still, woefully in the RED YTD (best RBC -6.7%, worst Scotiabank -19.28%) yet, up recently always better than down.

#40 The DA on 09.10.22 at 12:32 pm

Yes, lost me in the first paragraph too.
We don’t need a reiteration of the LPC, Democrat Party, Globalist political positions broadcast on the corrupt alphabet networks.

#41 ElGatoNeroYVR on 09.10.22 at 12:39 pm

Yeah ,have you looked lately at the requirements employers list on job postings . There are plenty of people available to fill the jobs once the ridiculous degree requirements ( bachelor for a receptionst anyone? ) and age discrimination are dropped. Oferring minimum weekly hours guarantees are a must as well for service oriented jobs.

#42 willworkforpickles on 09.10.22 at 12:47 pm

“In the US I see two dominant forces for this incredible strength in the labour market and in turn, the current shortage of workers.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………

If you want to know the truth, its all over with a weak labour market where wages, even if they have gone up some, are still well below current inflation numbers .
Workers are actually taking a pay cut.
This is the reason jobs aren’t being filled by the no longer counted among jobless workers/statistics.
They are remaining unemployed and won’t work for a pay to inflation shortfall wage.
Hardly the makings of a strong labour force and strong economy.
Today, many are taking on 2 and even 3 jobs just to make ends meet.
Not indicative of increased consumer spending in a strong economy (which it isn’t) …. what its indicating is, less spending using less real wage spending power paying more and getting less in an inflationary environment that is here now and here to stay.

Inflation is only going to get worse after interest rate increases tank the economy and the Fed pivots. Abandoning this weak inflation fight of theirs if but just to spare the markets.

Contrary to what the Fed is saying these days, rounds of massive more QE will be coming as sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west.

The massive debt and dollar crises to come thereafter will become a sure reality into the mid 2020’s.

#43 chopstix on 09.10.22 at 12:48 pm

Ryan: problem is what do we do with the current very real housing crisis at hand, even for local renters/people who can’t buy in/don’t want to while market recalibrates?
It’s already one big stresful SS out there: 1 bdrm rentals in toronto/vancouver going for 2k+/mo!….most people only earn $70-80k/yr on average (or median)? I have no problem with loading in more immigration to fill the labour shortages/increased retirees etc (my grandparents were from Ireland)..but the govt on all levels has to truly get serious and form better partnerships with business/developers and overcome the permit delays, zoning headaches that I read so often about, to build more affordable housing faster (coops etc thru community land trust etc).

If it’s already a SS for locals trying to find a secure, clean decent and affordable place (bidding wars are happening for rentals etc) then imagine the extra stress we’ll face with more immigration also competing for such….and the stress many new immigrants will face: they’re already facing culture shock and home sickness…just pile on more duress trying to compete with locals and find an affordable rental.

#44 Søren Angst on 09.10.22 at 12:50 pm

#25 rampant inflation

inflation is now structural. it’s going to take a decade or more to take it out of the system again.

—————–

I agree.

Right now you have BoC and the US Fed raising rates by not enough nor fast enough if you look at history as to what it took to beat down high inflation.

Their too busy trying to get a pat on the head for their hallowed

“Soft Landing”

Their self-ego stroking will undo the economy, as you say, for a decade or more. Esp. with the wage hike/inflation spiral that is just starting as Ryan points out today.

You get “poor me” Mills here Commenting on what a travesty a 1% to 4% rate increase is and how hard done they are (in reality 0.25% to 3.25%).

Try

22.75%

in Aug 1981.

At that rate, the current cohort of milquetoast KIDS (get a Gold Medal for merely breathing in air, and out) would all get an infarction.

#45 Quintilian on 09.10.22 at 12:54 pm

Something strange is going on, something so unusual that it has the super brains confused and distracted by the shiny object.

How can there be a shortage of labour if there are blockages in the supply flow of materials?

Usually, a shortage of materials causes disruption in production, and hence layoffs.

#46 Broader Mind on 09.10.22 at 12:55 pm

Ok, so minimum wage job puts a couple of thousand dollars in your pocket every month. Rent in Toronto for a one bedroom crack shack is about the same and food costs are out of sight. Houston we have problem . So yes , people can’t afford to have children and soon immigrants will no longer come due to cost. Real estate rising 100% during Covid all but guaranteed long term inflation. It will take 20 years for wages to catch up to real estate/ rent cost. The artificial and disrespectfully low interest rates all but assured this result. If and when rates are in double digits things will normalize. Bitcoins all at zero , real estate at 25 % of present value , and equities 50 % . People and corporations working with cash instead of debt…… A minimum wage job could then provide reasonable accommodation ,food , transport.

#47 PBrasseur on 09.10.22 at 1:03 pm

Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, remember that?

What this means is that a tight labour market does not per definition create inflation.

However in the presence of money printing and stimulus a tight labour market creates the conditions in which inflation can manifest itself.

Important to understand because population ageing throughout the west creates tight labour markets which makes it difficult to use stimulus without generating inflation.

Conclusion: No easy way out…

#48 Linda on 09.10.22 at 1:40 pm

Ryan, in the USA they have or had a huge pool of undocumented ‘illegals’. I’d imagine that if they simply made those folks legal that would go a long way to fixing some of the labor shortages. However, I noted that there is a pending strike of rail workers in the USA. So if that occurs yet more supply chain disruptions.

In Canada the headlines talk about targeting immigrants with needed skills for various industries. Sounds great, except for the little issue of those immigrants skills not being recognized by the various associations when said immigrants arrive in Canada. Hence the utter stupidity of actual qualified doctors working as cleaning staff in hospitals, because of the insistence by the medical associations that said doctors take pretty much every single course etc. to qualify to practice here in Canada. Talk about an epic waste of human potential. And yes, other professions are just as bad. Worked with one guy who had been the chief financial controller for DeBeers diamonds in South Africa. He’d immigrated with his family to Canada for safety reasons. What work could this highly trained & qualified individual get here? Well, he was working as a low level accounting assistant, because his qualifications were not recognized. Nope, he was expected to take all the courses & exams for CGA/CMA etc. to be able to practice. He ended up returning to SA. Ditto, a guy with medical training from Cambridge (UK) – was most of the way through his training, but no, Cambridge wasn’t good enough for the Canadian medical associations. Nope, he was expected to retake most of his training here….. He too, returned to the UK along with his teacher wife. Both young, both highly trained. Yep, we really get the best & then throw them away. Now, if they had criminal records we’d be fighting to keep them in Canada because they might face ‘unduly harsh’ punishment if they were returned to their country of origin. Nice to know our priorities!

#49 Robert B on 09.10.22 at 1:47 pm

Inflation
Central bankers have been wrong from the beginning.
Transitory they screamed…..We all new it wasn’t transitory.

One thing that they do not see is stagflation. If they keep raising rates they will push the economies into recession with inflation being persistant. Your thoughts Ryan??

Trudeau again is throwing more money into the economy through the doubling the HST rebates for 2 quarters.
This alone is inflationary…..

The million dollar question , is the Canadian economy in recession or not?
Why is trudeau throwing more stimulus into the economy if we are not in recession? Votes or is he causing inflation to persist?

1st quarter 2023 will be a doosy………Life changing…..

#50 The Woosh on 09.10.22 at 1:53 pm

#9 THE DANDADA on 09.10.22 at 10:00 am
“we simply don’t have enough able-bodied people to fill all the available jobs today and in the future.”

WRONG!!!

We simply don’t have enough CORPORATIONS willing to pay a decent salary with great benefits to entice able-bodied people to come to work.

PROFITS,SHAREHOLDERS, & EXECUTIVE BONUSES ARE #1

Everyone else comes way down the list.

——————————————

Close, but let’s correct this a little. It comes down to:

– 1 – Executive Salaries & Bonuses
– 2 – Share Price (as it relates to Executive Salaries & Bonuses)
– 3 – Profits (Indirectly relates to Executive Salary & Bonuses but won’t necessarily affect their payouts)

Notice a trend?

#51 yvr_lurker on 09.10.22 at 1:56 pm

A bar-owner friend of mine had to significantly increase his hourly wage and provide health care benefits to his staff and new hires. I worked in a bar for years while in university (no silver spoon here) and I was paid $6.50/hr with my only health care benefits being a crappy hamburger before my shift and a couple of beers after the close.
———————————-

Surely you can’t be saying that the economy should revert back to the scenario where low skill workers are routinely abused with ultra-low wages and zero perks? Now that workers have some choices (and perhaps used the pandemic and COVID $$ to upgrade skills), getting someone to be run off their feet working in a bar or restaurant for minimum wage and where the owner confiscates the tip jar is not a highly desirable scenario. It might have been the only game in town in the mid 1980s–1990 when unemployment for young people was very high, but not now. I fail to see how this is a bad outcome. Do we need a bar or restaurant on every corner block?

#52 GeoTM on 09.10.22 at 2:02 pm

Hey Ryan,
Your comments are spot on, but if you want “glimpse in the future”, check out what has been happening in the last 4-5 yrs in Europe. Eastern Europe migrated to West, Eastern European work shortage solved by Asian migrants. Nobody feels “happy at home”.
Quality and output of labour in Canada will average down substantially.

#53 truefacts on 09.10.22 at 2:05 pm

Couldn’t we free up some workers by ending useless gov’t “work” that is pointless. Start with the border agents enforcing ArriveCan – which is a complete joke!

Cut gov’t payroll by 30% and reallocate into productive private sector, imo!

#54 Palpha on 09.10.22 at 2:17 pm

Wage inflation is already here. Unions in BC getting 11% raises.

#55 The real Kip (Ret) on 09.10.22 at 2:35 pm

Yeah well, maybe printing $30-trillion wasn’t such a good idea after all. There’s still so much money sloshing around that many just decline to participate. Expect the situation to continue as the stimulus spigots are still wide open.

#56 Habitt on 09.10.22 at 2:36 pm

When will we learn to transition to a sustainable model that doesn’t include ever more growth but maintenance for all those that are here on this planet. Yeah empires may not be built. I suspect more is better.

#57 The General on 09.10.22 at 2:41 pm

Let us all invest in military industrial complex and related stocks. Lots of upside there, since we’re disarming ourselves to prolong a proxy war in Ukraine. As Smedley Butler said “War is a Racket”. Please read his book, which is avaliable online. Good insights on wartime investing, and who really benefits from the horrors of war. ‘Nuff said.

#58 Torexit Toronto Secessionist on 09.10.22 at 2:42 pm

So mass immigration is a conspiracy by capitalists to drive down the price of Labour? Color me shocked

#59 The General on 09.10.22 at 3:03 pm

#28- Famous last words… Ryan, 70 years of progress in Germany and Europe are being unraveled as we speak. Bailouts, energy rationing, darkened European capitals, major industries idled, small businesses crippled, layoffs increasing, and protests beginning. They now suck up excess resources worldwide to replace cheap Russian energy, to the detriment of the third world. This is just the beginning of the troubles soon to infect the periphery. How about the 3 G’s approach to investing: God-Guns-Gold?

#60 Blondie on 09.10.22 at 3:26 pm

I do one of those “hard to fill” jobs. 4 days compressed into 5 (9 hour days, $20/hr), medical office, no benefits. 2 software programs, endless admin, endless phone calls, often dealing with difficult and demanding people. As I both printed and emailed a patient’s invoice and prescription, and direct billed his insurance company, he remarked that I had done more for him than the last 5 people he gave a tip to. I’m close to retirement so I can hang in a couple more years, but if I were younger, I would never consider it. The only upside is that these jobs can’t be automated or shipped offshore.

#61 Nonplused on 09.10.22 at 3:40 pm

Yet food banks are reporting record demand and can’t keep up. Something doesn’t add up.

On the Russia front, it’s nice to have Putin to blame, I suppose as the leader part of his job is to be the lightning rod for criticism. But as always with leaders it is good to ask “what could someone else have done differently?” For example, had Bush II not been president, would the Iraq war have been prevented? Or are the mechanizations of statecraft to be found much deeper than that?

Russia seems to have 6 major negotiating points that the west has declared nonstarters:

– Peace in the Donbass through the Minsk accords
– “Denazification & demilitarization” of Ukraine
– No NATO membership for Ukraine
– No nuclear capable missiles inside a certain range of Russia
– Recognition of the Crimea referendum results
– Removal of sanctions

The “west” has responded by demanding the complete economic & political destruction of Russia by any means necessary no matter how many Ukrainians die and Germans freeze to death this winter. Peace is not considered possible unless Russia unconditionally surrenders.

So it is a bit of an impasse.

When these small wars break out, it is always helpful to see how they fit into the larger ongoing picture. For a hint as to the end game, consider the amount of resources Russia has and its proximity to China. Geology tends to be at the root of everything. Then consider the US and its “pivot to Asia” and “contain China” objectives. That really spells it all out right there. China cannot be contained so long as Russia remains independent and willing to trade with China without western considerations. But China doesn’t want to be “contained”.

So how does it all end? Well, it doesn’t really. If the west is serious about “containing China”, they will not let up until that goal is achieved. Thus, we are headed right into WWIII, if we aren’t already there. So far the plan is to use proxies and finance only, because a shooting war between NATO and Russia could go nuclear very quickly. But so far the proxies aren’t doing so well and the financial war is a near total failure, it is defeating the wrong side. So something could happen that draws NATO into the fight, that is way too likely for comfort. At that point, economics wouldn’t seem very important anymore.

As winter approaches, keep in mind that Biden has already largely drained the US strategic petroleum reserves and supply to the west from Russia has all but stopped, and winter is coming. Demand destruction is all that has kept a lid on prices. But it’s hard to destroy heating demand. Cold and hungry is a bad mix. And when people lose everything, they lose it.

And with that dreary outlook, I think I shall go for a ride. It’s nice out.

#62 Danger Dan on 09.10.22 at 4:06 pm

The rats only run the race when there’s enough cheese to be worth 1) the energy expended running the race and 2) the opportunity cost of running said race.

There are many WFH “gig” jobs these days that let you set your schedule and yeah, being a clerk might pay you $2/hr more, but if you’re going to lose 2h in the commute anyway then may as well just work 2h more at your gig job from home to make equivalent pay.

My gut feeling is that there were a lot of marginally skilled people stuck in unskilled jobs in the past, and trying to survive during lockdowns they discovered some alternative options, and now they aren’t going back to the brutal, abusive jobs they left.

#63 Scott in Gibsons on 09.10.22 at 4:34 pm

Hi Ryan, a good book on monetary inflation is “Dying of Money” by Jens O Parsson. Its been a few years but, from memory, it describes how freshly printed money can be absorbed by the financial system for many years before affecting prices. Once prices begin to rise a powerful cycle is set in motion that simply must play itself out. Weimar Germany was a big one, 1970’s/Volker was a smaller one. With the US money supply expanding by 1/3 in 18 months during covid, we may be in the next one. We should all hope you are right about inflation having peaked for now. What is your contingency plan if you are wrong?

#64 ogdoad on 09.10.22 at 4:36 pm

Unprecedented times indeed! Let’s not forget first world epidemics in obesity, loneliness, depression and substance abuse (middle class dream – let’s go to the lake and imbibe the entire summer!!!YAY)…why? B/c my job is so useless, boring, toxic and depressing. But wait, I can afford my booze and drugs, maybe its all good after all? I’m content with that, as will my offspring be…for 40 years of their lives’.

Sorry, I know, I know…its worth it. B/c I’m so duped and dumb that my menial tasks will be construed as meaningful. . . . . . . to Elon . . . . and to Trump . . . and the Amazon guy. . . .

NOT!!!

Now, enough commenting…Leisure calls. Happy Leisure Day!

Og

#65 wallflower on 09.10.22 at 4:46 pm

I suspect that young Ukrainian gal will be heading home within 12 months. As will many of them.
To rebuild their great nation.
It is cheaper to be broke and underpaid in Ukraine than Canada.
The way things are here now, it’s pretty much cheaper to be broke and and underpaid just about anywhere else (of the developed countries).
We have a lot of streetfolk on our streets in my southern Ontariowe city … the newbies are seeing this, too. Trying to hang on to a $1700+++ rental at minimum wage is bleaksterville. Many of them will be heading back to countries of origin or continuing their path of emigration.

Also, lots of those newbies are looking for their channel into the USA. And American firms are hiring more PRs and Canadians on Canadian soil… WFH.

#66 Cheese on 09.10.22 at 4:57 pm

I only make 20/hr, like Sisyphus I am bound to hell.

#67 Lower the Boom...er not on 09.10.22 at 4:57 pm

#6
It’ll be interesting to see how this “worker evaporation” is explained by Economists in the next decade or so.
Boomer mass retirement?
Millennial mass quitting?
Both?

****

hmm curious
and any stats/guesses re: how many tables are out there people are working under?

#68 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 09.10.22 at 5:05 pm

There’s a labour shortage in cottage country, too, so expect a delay of weeks to get your flat tire fixed up here and no retail service when you want it.

Don’t annoy us this weekend, all you inbred southern hillbillies.

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#69 Pierre Poo Lever on 09.10.22 at 5:10 pm

The party starts in less than an hour!

Come join me, Canada!

FREEDOM!

#70 macjack on 09.10.22 at 5:14 pm

Ryan, your article today didn’t mention the U.S. Labour Participation Rate. Between 1990-2010 it trended between 66-67% compared to the August 2022 rate of 62.4%. That 4% drop must account for the unemployed/job vacancy differential. Maybe there are more Bitcoin millionaires, who invested early, than we think.

#71 Ponnaps on 09.10.22 at 5:18 pm

Just not about sheer numbers but efficiency and competence of workers.. something that can significantly reduce labour demand without causing population pressure on available resources, civic amenities and societal peace and harmony that results from excessive immigration being seen as a solution for labour demand…

I fear the boastful immigration numbers in Canada will only cause more problems in the long run

#72 Linda on 09.10.22 at 5:20 pm

#50 ‘woosh’ – in addition to the unjustifiable $ paid to those CEO’s – add in the ‘bait & switch’ techniques used during the hiring process. Case in point – saying organization supports WFH, a compressed work week & other such enticing perks. Not technically a lie, but what isn’t said up front on those job postings is that only certain positions will be considered eligible for said perks. So you may have a youngster thinking they will be able to arrange their work life balance by accepting position X, only to discover that position X is not ever going to allow working from home or modified hours of work. Why? In many cases, because the manager for the area in question doesn’t like the idea of staff WFH or having to deal with staff coverage if modified work schedules are allowed. So the employee soon learns the truth & decides to move on asap – which costs the organization time/money. Rinse, repeat.

#73 PeterfromCalgary on 09.10.22 at 5:46 pm

The incredibly low interest rates that we had until just recently were a historical abnormality. Don’t bet on them going that low again any time soon.

#74 baloney Sandwitch on 09.10.22 at 5:48 pm

The issue is employers don’t want to pay a competitive wage and now that there is a bit of a labour shortage, they are in an uproar. They are too used to people begging for jobs. Also, they want the perfect candidate and don’t have the patience to train and develop employees. Any one less than perfect is rejected. (This does not apply to low level McJobs of course).

#75 Catalyst on 09.10.22 at 6:10 pm

It seems likely we have strong pressure downwards on inflation next year as we lap $130 oil prices but where do we settle out to after that? Seems likely around 2%. The true inflation was probably 15% this year but our official number never went close to that.

Also, clearly mass immigration hasn’t lead to lower inflation here so I’m not sure how this analysis is linked. We have labor shortages here because we don’t link our immigration to the specific areas we have shortages, like health care. Lastly, immigration is a federal mandate yet they funnel to specific areas leaving the province & municipalities to figure it out.

#76 Summertime on 09.10.22 at 6:12 pm

The reason for so many available jobs in US are still strongly negative rates, inflation and peak credit, all thanks to the central bank.

And I agree, god forbid workers from getting increase in salary commensurable with inflation, they have to suck it up, handle the inflation of necessities (supply side shortages) with no wage increases.

Blaming inflation on workers wage increases is sick. It is a result from , not the reason for inflation.

#77 Flop… on 09.10.22 at 6:13 pm

We all gotta hustle and shake our money maker.

Check out Ryan Lewenza in his latest side-gig video.

Garth’s not the only guy at Turner Investments with chiseled abs…

M48BC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcCSBrtyEP8

#78 Summertime on 09.10.22 at 6:20 pm

That is my prediction as well – at least 5-10 years of real inflation being 12-15 % reported as CPI of 4-5 %.

Very healthy for your CPP that will effectively shrink to peanuts and then to crumbs. That from being ‘gas money’ (in the good old times…) after decades of contributions from employers and employees.

#79 DON on 09.10.22 at 6:32 pm

#61 Nonplused on 09.10.22 at 3:40 pm
Yet food banks are reporting record demand and can’t keep up. Something doesn’t add up.

On the Russia front, it’s nice to have Putin to blame, I suppose as the leader part of his job is to be the lightning rod for criticism. But as always with leaders it is good to ask “what could someone else…

********
Nicely put!

#80 Ryan Lewenza on 09.10.22 at 6:57 pm

macjack “ Ryan, your article today didn’t mention the U.S. Labour Participation Rate. Between 1990-2010 it trended between 66-67% compared to the August 2022 rate of 62.4%. That 4% drop must account for the unemployed/job vacancy differential. Maybe there are more Bitcoin millionaires, who invested early, than we think.”

Yes I’m familiar with that statistic and addressed it in this blog post. – Ryan L
https://www.greaterfool.ca/2022/08/13/whats-the-fed-to-do/

#81 Oakville Rocks! on 09.10.22 at 6:57 pm

Wow, with so many of you unable to read past Ryan’s first paragraph I suppose my idea for a GreaterFool Book Club starting with James Joyce’ Ulysses is out of the question.

Perhaps Click Clack Moo instead? And it is sort of a parable on labour/employee relations too.

Have a look.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rhGzj6Dt1E

#82 ValT on 09.10.22 at 7:17 pm

“A bar-owner friend of mine had to significantly increase his hourly wage and provide health care benefits to his staff and new hires. I worked in a bar for years while in university (no silver spoon here) and I was paid $6.50/hr with my only health care benefits being a crappy hamburger before my shift and a couple of beers after the close.”

Ryan, I really respect your opinion, but seriously… are you saying that because you got treated like crap when you were a student, everyone should just accept the same treatment today? Terrible wage, no benefit and unsocial hours? That’s not a great goal to aim for. In fact, I would argue that as a society, our aim should be to provide every single worker with a living wage and full benefits at a minimum.

#83 jess on 09.10.22 at 7:19 pm

Jaron Lanier’s book -“Who Owns the Future?”
wisdom of the crowd turning into a lynch mob
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/what-turned-jaron-lanier-against-the-web-165260940/

#84 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 09.10.22 at 7:33 pm

What about all the zombie corps propped up on Covid cash and all the boomers retiring?

#85 Yukon Elvis on 09.10.22 at 7:40 pm

The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent
·
56m
⚡️Scholz: Germany prepared to face coming winter without Russian gas.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany is ready to weather the winter season if Russia decides to halt gas exports.
Scholz said terminals have been prepared in northern Germany to import liquid gas, coal-powered plants are operating, and nuclear power plants in the south will be ready by early 2023, if necessary.

#86 Wrk.dover on 09.10.22 at 7:42 pm

It was always the same until it now, where isn’t any longer.

Jobs less than double minimum wage have been unaffordable to hold long term, less and less, until now, where that income will make you homeless.

I would like to see a financial advisor lay out a budget for an entry level worker, with no benefits, no assets, no devices, appliances, implements, furniture or furnishings.

I remember being in that boat, in my beginnings.
Proportionally everything I needed in those days took less of my net, than it would now, fifty years on. Except the cost of blue jeans.

What is the point of being employed, while your non-wealth shrinks negative bound, until you need some dental work, and go bust?

We are a nation of Marie Antoinette haves, living side by side with third world have nots, and lecturing them to get an education, while wondering why they won’t McJob subside, for our financial gain.

Bottom Line:

You can’t make money, making money, period

M69NS Experienced

#87 Wrk.dover on 09.10.22 at 7:45 pm

Edit; The jeans are less now, everything else is more.

#88 The General on 09.10.22 at 7:54 pm

#_61- Nonplussed and others: OMG, did you just say that? Kudos!

#89 Yukon Elvis on 09.10.22 at 7:59 pm

Tough week for Vladdy. Master strategist and chess player. Black belt in judo. Bare chested horseback rider. Controller of the Gas to Europe. His army of the north is surrounded, retreating, surrendering, and taking thousands of casualties and pows. His army of the south of 15-20,000 is surrounded and cut off from resupply and retreating leaving their equipment in place. Mass casualties will follow if they don’t surrender. State Duma members in Moscow and St. Petersburg have called for his removal from office and that he be charged with treason. Arf arf, woof woof, and bow wow Vladdy! Slava Ukraini!

#90 The General on 09.10.22 at 7:59 pm

#85- Yukon Elvis: Are you from the Yukon? And are you related to Elvis? I hope you’re right.

#91 Cow Man on 09.10.22 at 8:05 pm

In the real world this is what is happening.

In retirement, at 74 years of age, with no financial needs, I continue to work as a school bus driver. My contribution to society.

We have been without a contract for a year. The employer has offered 1 % over 3 years. Do you think they want us to strike ? The vote was 89% in favour of a strike at our one Branch and 100% in favour of a strike at the other yard.

Why anyone shows up for work other than trying to avoid boredom is beyond me.

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.10.22 at 8:15 pm

@#82 ValT
“everyone should just accept the same treatment today? Terrible wage, no benefit and unsocial hours? That’s not a great goal to aim for. In fact, I would argue that as a society, our aim should be to provide every single worker with a living wage and full benefits at a minimum.”

+++
Well.
As noble as the “living wage” sounds.
I really have a hard time paying $100 for a few appetizers and one drink.
Because that is what is happening.
I was out last night with some friends and the restaurant was unusually empty at 6-9 pm.
Wages up = prices up.
Raise everyone who is unskilled “two feet and a heart beat” to a “fair wage” and the rest of the skilled trades will want their wages raised.
You’re $50/hour plumber is now $100/hour.
(Sorry Ponzie, blame wage price inflation).
The looming recession will bring all the fair wage zealots back to unemployment line reality.
Good luck with that.

#93 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.10.22 at 8:27 pm

The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent
·
56m
⚡️Scholz: Germany prepared to face coming winter without Russian gas.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany is ready to weather the winter season if Russia decides to halt gas exports.
Scholz said terminals have been prepared in northern Germany to import liquid gas, coal-powered plants are operating, and nuclear power plants in the south will be ready by early 2023, if necessary
————————
Told you.
Never bet against Germany.
All unessential city lights will go off at 10 p.m.
And tell me, do we really need all the automated door openers?
Are we that whimpy?
Handicapped excluded of course.
I know electricity in Canada is quite cheap.
Don’t take it for granted.
Ev’s are sure to drive it higher.

#94 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.10.22 at 8:52 pm

Talking about Germany and goods Made in Germany:
Just bought a pair of Birkenstock sandals.
Not cheap, but that’s the cost of quality.
On the box it says:
Birkenstock. Since 1774.

#95 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.10.22 at 8:56 pm

It looks like the next federal election will decide the future role of the Royals in Canada.
PEPE is counting on it, it seems.

#96 Tom on 09.10.22 at 8:58 pm

So workers wages are growing exponentially like executive pay? Oh no…

#97 immigration question on 09.10.22 at 8:58 pm

immigration question – not sure how the whole thing works. If someone was sponsored by one province can they switch their sponsorship to a new province when they arrive in Canada. Not sure if I used the right language – I am asking for a friend.

#98 Inadequate on 09.10.22 at 9:02 pm

I am hoping that all my 3 Canada born kids will head to US when they are done school here. Where they can have better opportunities, lower taxes and reasonable housing cost.

#99 Steven Rowlandson on 09.10.22 at 9:38 pm

After 1347 there was a labor shortage and an increase in pay. Guess why?

#100 meslippery on 09.10.22 at 9:38 pm

Iam retired but in 1982 AZ truck drivers could find work at $13.00 per hour.

https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1982?amount=13#:~:text=Value%20of%20%2413%20from%201982,of%20%2426.91%20over%2040%20years.

Are they offering $39.91 now by the hour with overtime after 44 hours? If not well its not like the job got better.

#101 Steven Rowlandson on 09.10.22 at 9:49 pm

I’ve got a secret for the Russians. In every country west of them there are no Nazi governments or even legal well organized Nazi movements. Just various forms of globalist gangsterism, marxism and political correctness.
They are getting upset over nothing except some false flag operations run by those who want war and blood sacrifices.

#102 Terry on 09.10.22 at 10:18 pm

The Fed is going to raise it’s target inflation rate from 2% to a range of between 3% & 4% after at least 2 more interest rate increases later this year. Then they will pause and assess the fallout.

#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.10.22 at 10:24 pm

Linda,
Well, he was working as a low level accounting assistant, because his qualifications were not recognized. Nope, he was expected to take all the courses & exams for CGA/CMA etc. to be able to practice. He ended up
Returning to SA.
———————————-
Well, if he was so qualified, he couda have challenged all the courses.
And it shouda have been a cinch.
Well, that’s what I had to do, challenged most of the courses and took the rest in night courses.
My Doctor is from SA .
Had to go a similar route.
Never whined.
Well, you either wonna immigrate and play by the rules, or not.

#104 The General on 09.10.22 at 11:26 pm

#89- UkkieElvis : You can think what you want, it’s a free country. Show proof of what you say, and not from bbbcbscnnbcbctvglobal perspective either.

#105 Adam on 09.10.22 at 11:38 pm

Just to be clear, the first paragraph is your opinion, not fact.

#106 yvr_lurker on 09.10.22 at 11:55 pm

#92
As noble as the “living wage” sounds.
I really have a hard time paying $100 for a few appetizers and one drink.
Because that is what is happening.
————–

Perhaps the idea of eating out every few days is a bit excessive. New Zealanders rarely eat out in a proper sit-down restaurant owing to the very high cost: found this out myself in 2017. Restaurant workers are paid a very decent wage, and little tipping is expected. Do we need to have a restaurant on every corner with the expectation that people eat out multiple times per week? We tend to go out at most twice per month and since the pandemic have become much more skilled in making interesting stuff, and now are having more dinner gatherings with friends (some potluck) at home. No need to pay 25.00 for a fancy burger at some over-priced restaurant topped off by an 18$ 8 ounce glass of wine…. It is simply burning $$$ to do that in my view…

#107 Ohm on 09.11.22 at 12:16 am

#9 THE DANDADA

Best post of the evening!

Nothing wrong with profits but everything wrong with a CEO receiving a huge bonus for laying off thousands of people who help build the company. Never understood that???

#108 MalcolmM on 09.11.22 at 1:20 am

Your comparison of US and Canada immigration numbers shows how foolish we are in Canada.

You seem to imply labour shortages in the US are at least in part related to lower immigration rates than in Canada. But we have similar labour shortages in Canada despite massive immigration. A similar point can be made regarding inflation.

We can’t grow our way to greater prosperity. Immigration cannot solve these issues. Do immigrants fill job positions? Of course they do, but they also have the same needs (housing, food, medical…) as current Canadians do.

In a similar vein, immigration won’t solve our issues around an aging population. Why – because those immigrants will themselves eventually reach old age and require care. We merely kick the can down the road a bit.

Which Canadians are great at doing.

#109 Tony on 09.11.22 at 1:27 am

Re: #8 Father’s Daughter on 09.10.22 at 9:57 am

I heard the opposite when they find out what the cost of living is in Canada.

#110 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.11.22 at 1:28 am

#61 Nonplussed
Good objective analysis.
It appears Putin has achieved his goals.
Albeit at a much higher cost than expected.

#111 Gabriel Shannock on 09.11.22 at 1:46 am

#37 Quint. If you’re identifying Trudeau and Biden as ‘vicious far right’, I agree. No G7 country has violently attacked citizens like Trudeau has. When you state that it’s ” the same and worse” but give no examples it’s a bit disingenuous because no other leaders have gone out and threatened the security of citizens the way Trudeau or Biden has. Even Venezuela didn’t send battering horse mounted thugs against lines of elderly women. The pendulum has truly reached its arc when the socialist overbearing goons are in power and the more reasonable honest citizens are under attack by liars propagandists and pissants.

#112 Tony on 09.11.22 at 2:01 am

Re: #39 Søren Angst on 09.10.22 at 12:29 pm

I said the same thing and the U.S. dollar will be falling near the end of this year putting more upward pressure on inflation in America and on commodity prices.

#113 SoggyShorts on 09.11.22 at 4:53 am

#1 LewenzaCountry aka Prince Polo on 09.10.22 at 9:05 am
Pardon my basic understanding of the wage-price spiral, but my simplistic theory is that at some point, even the consumer will throw in the towel instead of paying $25+ for a burger. Then it all comes crashing to the ground and we go for an interest rate do-over?

*********************
Maybe, but long before that employers will cut costs.
When was the last time you saw a hostess, grocery bagger, gas pumper, or busboy? Sometime right before the big push to $15/h? coincidence, I’m sure.

#114 Diamond Dog on 09.11.22 at 6:29 am

#80 Ryan Lewenza on 09.10.22 at 6:57 pm

My best guess is health being the primary factor.

The labor participation rate drop of 4% from 20 years ago (to 62.1% July 2022) suggests a blend of sources that are contributing beyond demographics, immigration and wealth effects. The overall health of participants has also dropped to account for this and I strongly argue take a distant second to the overall steady decline of health in our workforce.

Lets look at some data to see it for what it is. This chart below spells out plenty (CDC):

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/obesity-adult-17-18/Estat-adults-fig.png

74% of U.S. adults are now overweight or obese. In the 60’s, obesity was 16 – 17%. By 1999-2000, obesity climbed to 30.5% and climbed to a mind numbing 41.9% in 2017. Today? Today, it’s likely around 44.5%. If we think obesity isn’t playing a factor on work force participation rates, we. haven’t. thought. it. through. Diabetes is now in double digits. Digestive cancers are soaring. It’s not a coincidence.

If we look at cancer for a moment, liver cancer is now the third highest cancer related cause of death world wide, tripling over 4 decades. In the U.S., it’s 2nd. NAFLD, related to obesity and food additives, is pushing this number higher but so are forever chemicals. Colon cancer is now the 2nd leading cause of cancer deaths world wide. Stomach cancer is the 4th leading cause of cancer deaths world wide:

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/cancer

What do soaring digestive cancer mortality’s and obesity have in common? Lax food and drug regulations i.e., a toxic food supply. Yes readers, food manufacturing lobby interests are that powerful and it’s making everyone sicker with or without the bugs.

Just with Covid alone, obesity rates with Covid hospitalizations, ER’s and fatalities are more than 30% higher than the rest.

A recent study suggests as many as 4 million Americans are out of work from long Covid:

https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid-is-keeping-as-many-as-4-million-people-out-of-work/

I worked these numbers maybe 10 months back and pegged it around 2.5 to 3 million. It’s believable. Key findings:

– 16 million working age Americans have long Covid today.

– As many as 2 to 4 million are out of work due to long Covid. 3 million is the midpoint. Considering 132.34 million Americans are estimated to be working full time, we are looking at an easy 2% of the work force out with long Covid but it’s more than just a bug. When obesity rates are getting this high, we’ve got to know it’s more than a pandemic, it’s also the food supply. More than 75% of the some 600,000+ food products on the shelves have added sugars and it’s running it’s course.

Forever chemicals are also well worth a mention. The video below describes the risks well enough. “Rainwater is no longer safe to drink “world wide” according to the U.S. EPA’s new hazardous chemical guidelines”. Yes, readers read the headline right:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSlzdkT7TRI&t=42s

Are we seeing the effects of these hazardous chemicals already world wide? Liver cancer fatalities didn’t make the top 10, a mere 10 years ago. Today? Liver cancer fatalities are in 2nd place in the U.S. in 2021. From 1977 to 2017, world wide sperm counts have dropped by more than 60% (we’ve got to know this number hasn’t recovered over the last 5 years) and the smoking gun thinking over the last 10 years responsible for this is forever chemicals. 15% of U.S. adult couples “need help” having babies today, it’s a new reality. It’s as sure as breathing to live that these numbers will grow.

We hear noise concerning “over regulation, over regulation” from the political right, we have no idea. Corporations have been writing regulations so long that the fish is not safe to drink in “all” 48 states in the U.S. today. It’s not just the fish, ok? Its the water itself:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocQMX0eKReA

So lets recap. Obesity is soaring. From 16 – 17% obesity in the 60’s to 30.5% by 1999-2000 climbing to a mind numbing 41.9% in 2017 and a likely 44.5% today… these are butt ugly numbers. No one can say with a straight face that this isn’t a complete and total regulatory failure with food and chemical manufacturing.

Digestive cancers are through the roof along with obesity, further underpinning regulatory failure with I dare say, corruption fingerprints all over this. Corruption in the corporate world, in politics, media, government systems, it’s a cesspool.

Forever chemicals, 4 out of 5 people haven’t even heard of them, I dare readers, do a survey and ask people you know if they’ve heard of “forever chemicals”. Then you will understand it. It’s the most successful environmental coverup in history. Forever chemicals are poisoning the water supply in accumulating fashion, going on 70 years now. Forever chemicals aren’t just dropping sperm counts world wide like a rock, they have weakened immune systems world wide and it will get worse. Covid comes along with long covid symptoms icing an estimated 2 to 2.5% of the work force but “it’s not just Covid” ok, at the heart of it all is corruption.

Sure, we can talk about immigration and wealth effects and demographics lowering the labor force participation rate by 4% comparatively from 20 years ago and sure, the labor market will remain tight and inflationary but we would be foolish to ignore the elephant in the room.

Corporations have gamed the system. Corporations are writing the regulations that are supposed to protect the consumer’s food and water supply and they are literally getting away with murder. It’s a long term systemically corrupt system with corrupt election campaign financing laws, increasingly corrupt laws surrounding the mere ability for government to even regulate and all this while North American overall adult health is continuing to plummet and its only going to get worse.

Individuals, corporations and governments need to do everything they can? When they are done stuffing their pockets, I doubt they’ll get around to it. Meanwhile, the majority of the rest of us don’t really know how bad it is, never mind how much worse it will get. (think as darkly as your mind will allow and you might come close)

#115 Steven Rowlandson on 09.11.22 at 8:45 am

Trudeau and Biden are no where near being right wing.
Quite the opposite in fact. Extreme far left is more like it just like most democrats and communists.
If you want to discover what leftist behavior is like check out some long documentary and movie videos.
The Chekist (Russian language)
In the shadow of Hermes (Swedish Language with English subtitles)
NWO communism by the back door – by Dennis Wise Might be available at archive.org

The world is not a nice place and you will find out that there are some very odd relationships in the world of politics and finance.

#116 Ryan Lewenza on 09.11.22 at 9:10 am

Tom “ So workers wages are growing exponentially like executive pay? Oh no…”

That’s an entirely different topic. Are CEOs and executives overpaid? Of course they are. But paying CEOs an extra million or two doesn’t have much impact on overall wage inflation which was the focus of my blog. Like I said some wage growth is a good thing but when it spirals out of control and becomes permanent it brings down the entire economy as a result of the aggressive rate hikes. Then people are worried about how they can pay their mortgages since they don’t have a job rather than worrying about whether they can afford a steak at the grocery store. – Ryan L

#117 Ryan Lewenza on 09.11.22 at 9:22 am

Adam “ Just to be clear, the first paragraph is your opinion, not fact.”

The global pandemic is not still weighing on our economy and healthcare sector? Is Putin’s war not unjust and that’s he attempting to reverse the break down of the Soviet Union through annexing lost territory? Are leaders like Putin, Orban and Xi Jinping not trying to suppress the people and tear away at democratic principals? Do you know what happens in Russia right now if you say anything about the war? You get arrested or worse. Nine energy executives have mysteriously died in recent months. In China if you protest against the banks and government you get beaten up and arrested. Are these not facts?? – Ryan L

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.22 at 9:22 am

@#61 Nonplused

Or Putin is an arrogant, stubborn leader that thought 100,000 Russian troops invading his next door neighbor would be a shoo in.
A great way to get his populations’ attention off the fact that he has slowing strangled freedom and human rights while personally robbing billions from the Nation’s coffers and his conies join in.
All while China patiently watches him self destruct an entire country rich in oil, minerals and clean , fresh water.
Russia’s only “Ace in the hole’ is their nukes.
No one is willing to invade Russia and risk frying the entire planet…..yet.
But I’m sure China will be the first to move if they feel Putin’s attention is elsewhere.
( perhaps they will already BE in Russia. “Helping” Putin keep his stolen loot against the hated Capitalists.)
But if we do slide into WWIII ….look on the bright side.
Obesity and diabetes will disappear along with unnecessary food.
And we’ll have Charles III for WWIII.

#119 Ryan Lewenza on 09.11.22 at 9:36 am

Stroller “ You mentioned Putin’s “revisionist” thinking. Do you perhaps mean “revanchist”?”

The Soviet Union broke apart and ended 30 years ago. It’s now just to try to reverse this and take back land from free and independent countries? Who’s next then? Based on your logic then Putin’s free to launch similar wars and invasions in Moldova, Lithuania and the other 11 countries that broke away from the Soviet Union. Putin’s a thug and a tyrant. That’s who you seemingly support. – Ryan L

#120 Dharma Bum on 09.11.22 at 10:14 am

#68 Cottagers stay the h – e double hockey sticks away

There’s a labour shortage in cottage country, too, so expect a delay of weeks to get your flat tire fixed up here and no retail service when you want it.
——————————————————————————————————-

The labour shortage in cottage country is ticking me off!

My new-build has come to a complete standstill because my so called “builder” can’t amass enough semi-skilled labour to get ahead on the work he took on after sucking me in to using him in the first place.

My new cottage is like a movie set – all pretty and real-looking on the outside – but it’s just a facade.

Don’t worry though. Once it’s finished I will be invading that beautiful cottage country every day with all my southern inbred hillbilly friends and relatives.

Alas, lucky for you – I have no friends and hate all my relatives.

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.22 at 10:18 am

China is Russia’s bestest pal…..until they aren’t.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xi-leaves-china-first-time-since-covid-pandemic-began-meet-putin-2022-09-11/

Chinese troops in Ukraine? North Korean troops?

#122 DON on 09.11.22 at 11:04 am

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-real-problem-is-not-job-losses-its-rush-retire-2022-09-11/

Hmmmm!

“It is not just the 65-and-over crowd packing up their offices and hanging up their tool belts. A record number of Canadians aged 55-64 are now reporting they retired in the last 12 months, Statscan data shows.”

#123 Shawn on 09.11.22 at 11:33 am

Labour Shortages driving up wages, and fueling inflation?

There is room for higher wages to come out of profits rather than raising prices.

Workers need to continue to ask for higher wages.

Consumers need to shop around harder and refuse to pay higher prices.

The level of inflation will be determined in part by consumers voting it down by closing their wallets.

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.11.22 at 11:34 am

#122 DON on 09.11.22 at 11:04 am
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-real-problem-is-not-job-losses-its-rush-retire-2022-09-11/

Hmmmm!

“It is not just the 65-and-over crowd packing up their offices and hanging up their tool belts. A record number of Canadians aged 55-64 are now reporting they retired in the last 12 months, Statscan data shows.”
———————-
Freedom 55.
Let Bezos drive the trucks without a pee break.

#125 Dogman01 on 09.11.22 at 11:52 am

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.22 at 10:18 am

China is Russia’s bestest pal…..until they aren’t.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xi-leaves-china-first-time-since-covid-pandemic-began-meet-putin-2022-09-11/

Chinese troops in Ukraine? North Korean troops?

—————————————

Who are we at war with today?

Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia, I just can’t keep track of who is not kowtowing to the West anymore.

I am about ready for my “two minute hate”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvGmOZ5T6_Y

#126 the Jaguar on 09.11.22 at 11:55 am

Listening to the CBC this morning and a review of the leadership vote last night. They said the guy from Calgary with the french name who won said ( in french), something to the effect that ‘it was more important for a guy from Saguenay lac st jean to have a pay cheque than fighting a war against Putin in Ukraine’.

Guessing this won’t go down well with the ‘Glory to Ukraine’ crowd, but interesting that he targeted that part of the speech to Quebec. Go figure….

#127 KNOW IT ALL on 09.11.22 at 12:13 pm

#9 The Dandada
————————–
COVID cleared the eyes of many working class souls. They worked hard and remained loyal for years some decades to their employers just to be layed off and let go and some even with salary and benefit deductions for those that stayed.

RYAN my answer to your theory of not enough able bodies to fill these empty positions is pretty clear.

Treat working class workers and families with RESPECT and DIGNITY like your Uncle Ken stood for.

STOP taking an entire years salary of 2000 workers and stacking that into the hands of a few executives.

#128 freedom50 on 09.11.22 at 12:19 pm

#122 Don: That’s me. I retired at 50. No desire whatsoever to return to work because too little time left over in the day after doing the things I want. Thank you DB Pension, frugal lifestyle and NO DEBT!

Bet the company hiring the AZ driver wants someone with 3+ years experience — sorry all of those candidates are working for higher wages with benefits.

#129 Karlhungus on 09.11.22 at 12:23 pm

Higher labour costs lead to higher prices

I would question this. The business owner might think he has to raise labour costs and raise prices but I would argue a stronger force is supply and demand. He can only raise prices if the market is willing to pay them.

It’s like when I hear “landlords have to pass on their higher interest costs to the tenants”

No they don’t, not if the market can’t bear it. The market is its own beast – it does not care what your costs are.

#130 Quintilian on 09.11.22 at 12:56 pm

#123 Shawn on 09.11.22 at 11:33 am
“The level of inflation will be determined in part by consumers voting it down by closing their wallets.”

No Shawn, wrong as you are most of the time.

Prices are set by companies which have pricing power.

Some headline inflation is subject to price elasticity, core inflation is a different story.

#131 dosouth on 09.11.22 at 1:09 pm

You were quite diplomatic using the states instead of pointing the finger directly at Canada. $40/hr entitlement is exactly what needs correcting, not issues that affect 1-3% of our population.

Being PC and all I hope there is some butt kicking in the future with whomever runs this country. Gave up voting years ago as politics is so polarized these self serving public servants do that, serve themselves.

Kids with no actual life experience running the asylum

#132 Dr V on 09.11.22 at 1:31 pm

106 lurker

“Perhaps the idea of eating out every few days is a bit
excessive.”
—————————————————-

Agree with this and your other points.

Even where some local establishments are trying their best with holding price increases to a minimum, I have noticed poorer service overall, and a lower quality in the meals themselves.

We purchase a meat box from a local supplier about once a month or so. Enjoyed two plump chicken breasts from the BBQ last night. Tonight will be Salmon and shrimp (shrimp from the supermarket). Have red and
white on hand. Normally just half a small glass and not even with every meal.

Coffee is south American via Invermere and is french
pressed. Rivals if not betters local coffee shops.

#133 Don Guillermo on 09.11.22 at 1:33 pm

#126 the Jaguar on 09.11.22 at 11:55 am
Listening to the CBC this morning and a review of the leadership vote last night. They said the guy from Calgary with the french name who won said ( in french), something to the effect that ‘it was more important for a guy from Saguenay lac st jean to have a pay cheque than fighting a war against Putin in Ukraine’.

Guessing this won’t go down well with the ‘Glory to Ukraine’ crowd, but interesting that he targeted that part of the speech to Quebec. Go figure….
@@@@@@@@@@@
He also targeted an anti-woke message to the Quebec audience. I thought that was interesting. He covered a lot of bases last night.

#134 DON on 09.11.22 at 1:35 pm

#124 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.11.22 at 11:34 am
#122 DON on 09.11.22 at 11:04 am
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-real-problem-is-not-job-losses-its-rush-retire-2022-09-11/

Hmmmm!

“It is not just the 65-and-over crowd packing up their offices and hanging up their tool belts. A record number of Canadians aged 55-64 are now reporting they retired in the last 12 months, Statscan data shows.”
———————-
Freedom 55.
Let Bezos drive the trucks without a pee break.

**********
Lots of people with DB pensions or high real estate values no doubt didn’t want to return after COVID, as the virus got into our brains in one way or another.

Can’t blame the long time medical staff for calling it quits. On the ground the data is easy to see…to bad most people need the stats to point it out after the fact.

The loss of knowledge from retirements is truly amazing in the areas I have been monitoring.

#135 DON on 09.11.22 at 1:41 pm

#129 Karlhungus on 09.11.22 at 12:23 pm
Higher labour costs lead to higher prices

I would question this. The business owner might think he has to raise labour costs and raise prices but I would argue a stronger force is supply and demand. He can only raise prices if the market is willing to pay them.

It’s like when I hear “landlords have to pass on their higher interest costs to the tenants”

No they don’t, not if the market can’t bear it. The market is its own beast – it does not care what your costs are.

********
People are ‘Living in Vans down by the River’ and close to Universities as they can’t pay the high rents.

#136 TheDood on 09.11.22 at 2:20 pm

#9 THE DANDADA on 09.10.22 at 10:00 am
“we simply don’t have enough able-bodied people to fill all the available jobs today and in the future.”

WRONG!!!

We simply don’t have enough CORPORATIONS willing to pay a decent salary with great benefits to entice able-bodied people to come to work.

PROFITS,SHAREHOLDERS, & EXECUTIVE BONUSES ARE #1

Everyone else comes way down the list.
________________________________

I don’t disagree. The expectations set at some jobs (education, accountability, responsibility, etc.) does not align with what they pay. This is what is primarily driving the whole quiet quitting thing.

#137 Linda on 09.11.22 at 2:59 pm

#103 ‘Ponzi’ – challenging the courses would be ideal. For instance, why insist a qualified doctor retake every single course? Why not have them write a qualifying exam plus have them intern under a Canadian doctor for say one year to ensure they are conversant with medical mores here? Instead the obstacles are unduly onerous. I for one find it interesting that if an immigrant doctor is willing to practice in a remote, rural community no issues, but all hell breaks loose if they try to move to an urban centre. Suddenly their qualifications to practice come under scrutiny. Calls into question the rationale behind the rules, no?

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.22 at 3:06 pm

@#134 Don
“The loss of knowledge from retirements is truly amazing in the areas I have been monitoring.”

+++
Yep.
Talked to a buddy of mine who does long haul trucking across Canada.
He’s been doing it for 40+ years.
Loves it.
Getting ready to pull the pin at 63.
“Too much paperwork and Govt bs.”
Another experienced worker fed up with the horsesh!t….down the road.

#139 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.11.22 at 3:11 pm

@#136 The Dood
“The expectations set at some jobs (education, accountability, responsibility, etc.) does not align with what they pay. This is what is primarily driving the whole quiet quitting thing.”

+++
Who’s expectations?

A friend works for the City of Van.
20 interviews for 10 jobs.
10 people selected for a second interview.
8 show up.
3rd interview.
3 show up.
3 hired.
2 quit within a month.
1 left has a horrible attendance record for the first 3 months of probation.
Is placed on another 3 month probationary period.
Quits.

We need a recession to drag all these whining screaming entitled children ….back to reality.
Or a major war.

#140 Linda on 09.11.22 at 7:28 pm

#132 ‘Dr’ – we do much the same. Lots of excellent dining establishments, but the problem with eating really good stuff at home is that said establishments have to compete. Difficult to justify paying many $ for meals one can get at home that a) is better quality & b) costs far less.

#141 Russ on 09.12.22 at 12:13 pm

Wouldn’t low birth and immigration rates significantly lead to lower growth in consumer demand? And if many of us are indebted to our eyeballs as Garth likes to imply, are we not in a highly interest-rate sensitive economy where we should see larger impacts from smaller rate increases (all over the medium/longer term).

#142 Sarah on 09.12.22 at 2:19 pm

Ugh, liberal garbage.