The odds

One more sleep. Tomorrow we find out if the central bank will up its key rate by a half, three-quarters or the whole enchilada of a full point in its battle against inflation (and probably Poilievre).

Most economists are leaning towards a half. Mr. Market is pricing in more, just to be safe. And this comes atop the 1% jump we saw during the summer. In any case, the prime at the chartered banks will be at least 5.2% by noon on Thursday. Home equity lines will move immediately. We’re nearing the trigger point for about a hundred thousand families with VRMs (monthly payments to rise an average of $200, says RBC). Soon credit card charges will follow, again, pushing the cost of unpaid balances over 20% everywhere.

The hike’s a done deal. What we don’t know is if the bank will pause now and assess the damage, or press on. There are two more rate dates to come this year: October 26th and December 7th.

One bank (with the penguins) is suggesting the CB will in fact stop turning the screws this week and keep rates stable until it’s clear what the fallout has been. Another (it’s blue) says if real estate starts to recover the Bank of Canada will keep hiking – since it actually wants pain. Without that, inflation will not be crushed. Adds RBC: “The Bank’s commitment to front-loading rate hikes in the face of red-hot inflation means an even bigger 100-bps increase can’t be ruled out.”

Of course another 100 beeps would means cardiac arrest at Re/Max.

Now, weirdly, we need to mention Liz. The new UK prime minister is experienced politically, but never as leader. Britain’s a bit of a litmus test for us colonials, being further in the soup economically. Inflation, analysts at Goldman figure, will be 19% (it’s 10.1% now). The energy situation is dire, as in Europe. Costs are romping higher. Brexit was a big mistake. The Bank of England is signaling a ”forceful” rate hike on September 15th. Things are a tad out of control.

And what does Liz Truss want? To be the new Maggie Thatcher (Google her, kids).

So, a big tax cut. In other words, stimulus. Fiscal stimulus. Lower taxes would mean more spending, which is what politicians crave – until it leads to rampant inflation and completely annihilates the benefit of higher interest rates.

This is the problem. Politicians vs bankers. Look at our own NDP – now propping up the Liberal government until 2025, but only on the condition the feds increase spending with a dentalcare program, a direct payment to families and way more money for housing initiatives. It’s all inflationary. Like Doug Ford eliminating license plate stickers and sending a refund cheque to every driver. Or the billions dropped last week (and again today in BC) by the PM on  housing units.

It just never ends. So why would interest rates to rise, crescendo, then flop? The Australian CB raised by 50 beeps today. The European bank goes 75 (probably) on Thursday. All around the world, it’s the same story. Hit the brakes.

How high here in Maple?

Beyond an expected jump of three-quarters of a point tomorrow in Ottawa, most economists figure there’s another half-point to come before the apex. If inflation behaves, a year from today we might edge back down to exactly where we are at the moment. And then, for a few years, mortgages would be in the 5% range – just about guaranteeing there are more real estate reductions to come, unless people lose their minds…

Derek Holt, of Scotia (smart dude), is warning that much of the future may be in the hands of newbie buyer:

For instance, what if first time homebuyers use this weak spot for housing as an opportunity to save up so they can pounce on cheaper entry points? We’ve seen that before. What if much of the rate shock at the origination level was already baked into stress test qualifying criteria? It probably was. What about the fact that Canada is importing essentially something close to a new city of Ottawa or city of Edmonton every couple of years with most going to 3–4 cities if it achieves its immigration targets and into a market with tight housing supply? That’s ~1% per year population growth through immigration with a heightened emphasis upon the economic class which means more likely to drive household formations.

In other words, politicians desperate for personal power and reckless Millennials horny for houses have the power to trap us in a rate-price spiral. Beam me up, Scotty.

About the picture: “Sparki is our 11 year old 9 lb female Teddy Bear Toy Poodle who has filled a huge void in my Father in Laws heart since his bride of over 50 years passed,” writes John. “She sticks to him like Velcro as he rocks in his chair reminiscing about the days of ole, she’s very perceptive to his moods. She spent her early years going to work with my wife to her retail store and became so popular that people would just come by to visit her. Kids would go bonkers over her, she loves kids and they love her, she just about wags her butt off when they are around. She’s flown to Mexico many times and has ended up being absconded by the flight attendants more then once and passed throughout out the plane amongst joyous laughter of the passengers. She’s really been a gift who’s brought a lot of happiness to people. Who thought a lap dog would capture our hearts….

106 comments ↓

#1 Caffeine Monkey on 09.06.22 at 3:14 pm

Garth, sorry to hear about the assault. Bunch of savages. Vancouver’s streets are becoming ever more inhospitable too.

Meanwhile in a CP article today: “Equifax Canada says total consumer debt rose to $2.32 trillion in the second quarter, up 8.2 per cent compared with the same quarter last year.”

Sounds doubtful that the consumer has much more capacity to sacrifice themselves at the altar of debt to help prop up the economy.

#2 Prince Polo on 09.06.22 at 3:16 pm

All prudent bets are off when election vote buying needs to happen. Aka, our dear photo-op minister introducing “affordable” 50yr and 75yr amortizations. Will this blog be on cardiac arrest if that happens?

#3 chalkie on 09.06.22 at 3:16 pm

Rates go up tomorrow or the Feds are hiding their heads in the sand, it has to happen now, or double up in the next two rate hikes, no free rides folks. Mortage holders will be touched one way or another.
The Economist found that the region’s home prices have risen by more than 60 per cent over the past five years, people are priced out of the markets. Vancouver and Toronto Canada is followed by London, UK and Sydney, Australia, both of which were deemed overvalued by 60 per cent or above, Canada and the US is now entering a stage of buyers in short supply with plenty of homes inventory starting to become available, soon to be a glut of homes available. This is a turning point of where a crash is certain to occur. Lending intuitions are now seeing a big slowdown in mortgage applications, the writing is on the wall. How can we go from a Canada wide home short supply by the tens of thousands to oversupply in such a short time span, what’s wrong with this picture? Think outside the box and the answer is in the mirror for the ones who panicked, it’s called panic greed, there never was a short supply, fool me one, shame on you, fool me twice and shame on me, same story went for toilet paper in short supply my friends, ask your neighbor how much toilet paper is still in their basement waiting for a swipe. Buying or selling, negotiate with your agent for an MLS listing at 3%, and offer low when you are buying, it may look nice for now, don’t be stuck with a pink elephant for years to come with your home worth far less than market value, home prices has nowhere to go but down. Don’t allow any real estate agent tell you what a home is worth when you are buying, that’s your decision and only yours, it’s your money, be smart, look after it and it will look after you. When you hear the agent say, we can’t go that low, move on, there are plenty of MLS agents that will take our listing at 3%, agents don’t like you asking for a discount, but that’s life. The world has almost 8 billion people living today, with only 56 million Millionaires, that is less than 1% of the people alive today, but yet homes all over the glove are listed far higher than most people can afford, don’t be shy, offer low, let the wind blow and help get inflation under control, it should not take a life time to pay off a home. Some financial intuitions had predicted homes to drop as much as 35 to 40% from the highs of February 2022, some people thought they were crazy, reality is, we are getting close or there already in some areas, so they were not wrong. All I can say is, there won’t be a whole lot of gains left over after this slowdown to crash ends by 2024 or later, you haven’t seen anything yet baby.

#4 IHCTD9 on 09.06.22 at 3:17 pm

Sparki sure looks like a sweetheart in that pic.

FWIW, I would not be one bit surprised if the kids lost their minds right alongside Ottawa. They can both jump in the Octagon with the BOC and battle it out for all I care. Canada hasn’t made much sense since 2008, and zero sense since 2015. It appears we’re not content to let things blow until we push the pressure up to thermonuclear levels.

Think long and hard about maxing out on RE kids, the rivets are already popping and steam is escaping. She ain’t gonna hold together much longer now that the FED/BOC/ECB/BOJ etc.. have awoken from their long slumber.

https://external-preview.redd.it/1IxDVUAman21G_g6d7MbpvQS4bbPqiiS1VkA1ODi2lI.png?auto=webp&s=56586adb9a3eb50d6654d362abe59f65ae38e902

#5 OK, Doomer on 09.06.22 at 3:34 pm

“For instance, what if first time homebuyers use this weak spot for housing as an opportunity to save up so they can pounce on cheaper entry points?”

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

That type of collapse in demand would only happen if the first time buyer was paid to stay out of the market, say, if there was a RRSP like program to reward FTB’s with big tax breaks.

Oh…what do you mean?? Trudeau put one in place….

And that’s when the bottom fell out.

#6 Concerned on 09.06.22 at 3:34 pm

Boring B&D portfolio is historically down 14% YTD
RE is down 30%

what is going on?

#7 the Jaguar on 09.06.22 at 3:45 pm

December 7th? Isn’t that the day Pearl Harbour was blitzed? Maybe they should change the date. As for the rate increase, I am sticking with 1%. Go big or don’t go at all has pretty much been my life philosophy. Besides, it makes sense to ‘front-load’ rates per the RBC lion so the subsequent ones near the annual Christmas spending frenzy are smaller. It’s that old ‘perception by the masses’ thing. And if “100 beeps would means cardiac arrest at Re/Max.”, nobody can say they weren’t warned and didn’t have time to execute an exit strategy. As for this:

“What about the fact that Canada is importing essentially something close to a new city of Ottawa or city of Edmonton every couple of years with most going to 3–4 cities if it achieves its immigration targets and into a market with tight housing supply? ”

Let me guess. Brampton, Richmond Hill, Mississauga, and Richmond, B.C..? Maybe throw in Markham? Maybe not Quebec as they are signalling being a “little picky” these days….

Although during the recent ( May 2022) election in the Philippines the CBC did an interview where I was surprised to learn that roughly 1/4 of the population of Calgary was from the Philippines, so maybe Derek Holt could elaborate on the destination locations…

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2031235651832

It’s all good. We certainly need immigration. In the part of the country where I live most work crews appears to be newcomers to Canada. The Mexicans work three times as hard as the native borns. And I don’t envision any would pound on an innocent man returning to his wife and dog in the evening hours on the streets of Toronto. They bring with them a culture of respect for others. Old traditions. The ones we maybe need to bring back so people we care about can walk the streets safely. Amen.

#8 Stroller on 09.06.22 at 3:47 pm

Liz might behave like Thatcher?

Oh, please, please, please God. I promise to be good.

#9 thebarold on 09.06.22 at 3:53 pm

The 5yr rate is only back to where they were in early 2009… still long to go before reverting to the long-term mean…

#10 Dogman01 on 09.06.22 at 3:53 pm

Wow the Uk close to 19% Inflation! . Let that sink in, getting close to Zimbabwe, Weimar levels.

Remember our glorious leaders quip: “You’ll forgive me if I don’t think about monetary policy”

Economic and Social Suicide encouraged and abetted by your insular out of touch Ruling Class.

“The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.”
— Marcus Tullius Cicero, 55 BC

Zimbabwe inflation rate (average): 686%. Weimer Republic inflation rate (1923) 29,000%. Not even close. – Garth

#11 The Peak on 09.06.22 at 3:54 pm

Peak interest rates coming soon. Consumers and governments tapped out, and simply can’t rollover debt at double digit interest rates some yearn for.

Also nice to see Garth acknowledge immigration presents a floor for housing in desirable markets. Yes people who lost their minds spending $1M for a teardown in Aurora will learn their lesson, and will impact the “average” home price in Canada as much going down as it did on the way up.

But nothing will make housing in downtown Toronto or Vancouver “affordable” again, short of a nuclear holocaust.

#12 Nonplused on 09.06.22 at 3:55 pm

Garth, I don’t get it. You of all people talking as if 5% rates are TEOTWAWKI (The end of the world as we know it). To me, 5% seems a lot more normal than 1% and below.

Then again, I do not have any debt but do have a Garth ™ portfolio, so I benefit more from 5% than 1%. Maybe that’s the difference?

All I know for sure is I picked up a flat of Coke at Costco this morning and it was $15. It wasn’t that long ago I was putting it in the cart for $9. Whether you are flush with bonds or deep in debt that part is hurting us all. You can’t live without Coke. Well, not my kids, anyway.

Whether inflation is 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% or more, over the not very long run it is a societal disaster. There is no way for the masses to escape it. Bonds don’t work, gold doesn’t work, stocks don’t really work, taxes go up, new house prices go up, food and energy go up, wages don’t or not really, and everyone suffers. The only thing you can do is buy all the things. But even that has its limits.

So I don’t want to hear any more whining about rates. They are still to low. The only reason for the CB’s not to move another full point for all three coming “rate days” is if they think that maybe there is some faint hope that inflation is dying. Well, maybe it is, but like my backside, I don’t see it. Not yet, anyway. And once winter sets in in Europe, it could get a lot worse.

Covid is over. The kids are back at school. The bars are open. People are back at work. The emergency rates must end.

#13 The Original Jake on 09.06.22 at 4:03 pm

If the BoC wants to lead as before they will up the rate tmr 1% again. Housing is still way too inflated for the masses and barely back to pre-covid levels.

Everyone focusses on houses, cars and gas for inflation as they are the big ticket items. But, it’s the everyday small items that have escalated the most. My local bakery shop has practically doubled most of their goods since covid. No let up even with the rates increases so far. Everyday grocery items are still at their apex…. 30% to 50% on average.

Let’s go Tiff… light’er up. Let’s get this inflation mess under control now.

#14 Søren Angst on 09.06.22 at 4:03 pm

There will be no last minute Hail Mary Pass.

Inflation 7.6% is greater than wage gains 5.2%.

Disposable income erodes every month. Less money to buy and pay for a home.

2019 total employment income was

$975.9 billion

A couple more billion from hapless Trudeau will not fuel inflation further.

A few billion more of disposable income is like a person urinating in the Pacific Ocean and trying to measure the water level increase after.

#15 mj on 09.06.22 at 4:11 pm

last year I didn’t think the bank of Canada would get this high. Now my thoughts have changed. I think they will keep going and follow the fed. The fed say that they might have to go to 4 percent or above. I think people in Canada are getting use to the higher rates for mortgages. Higher rates are needed here to slow real estate down further. Final thing, good luck Pierre this weekend. He is our only hope to beat Justin. Sorry Garth, I had to add that in. If you were running, I would have picked you

#16 The real Kip (Ret) on 09.06.22 at 4:15 pm

Won’t matter what BoC does with their ultra low interest rate. Even a 1% rise still leaves them behind the inflation curve.

I watched a BNN clip today said total debt loads in Canada is up 8.2% year over year. That’s because the incentive is still to borrow more at cheap rates.

#17 NOSTRADAMUS on 09.06.22 at 4:19 pm

THEY KNOW NOT WHAT THEY DO!
The real estate cartel never lets up with their Pinocchio routine, prices are down, now is the time to buy. It’s a sweet spot in the market, you don’t want to miss the last train to Clarksville. You can thank them for the pain unfolding. And let’s not forget the realtor’s lap dog partners in crime, the braindead click bait media who never question the real estate cartel Pinocchio statistics. Circling back, “They know not what they do.” The reality is, the longer house prices stay elevated the more the Fed and it’s baby brother the Central Bank Of Canada is likely to hike.
Moving along the calendar, I’m looking for a possible chain reaction where the sins from the past cast a long shadow. I’m referring to the banker’s previous, greedy, risky lending practices, now causing losses for the banks, which then tighten loans for the” Wee Little People,” causing a credit crunch which in turn leads to a deeper downturn spiral. Trust me I’m no “FIBBER McGEE.”

#18 Tom on 09.06.22 at 4:19 pm

Prices have barely moved on the West Coast. If we are halfway through the cycle, then many will probably be able to ride it ou.

#19 IHCTD9 on 09.06.22 at 4:25 pm

#3 chalkie on 09.06.22 at 3:16 pm
____

Problem here in Canada is we let prices rise until greed set in. Spectuvestors then pushed prices so hard and fast that FOMO set in. From there, everyone and their dog piled in due to one or the other. Fear and greed are something powerful.

This disaster is 15 years in the making, I hope we’re at the doorstep of a painful correction – enough to bring fear back into the picture again. But this time, fear of getting destroyed on an investment property…

#20 TurnerNation on 09.06.22 at 4:36 pm

#277 Carlyle on 09.05.22 at 11:22 pm

^^ The Eaton Centre and Young/Dundas square area has been a no-go zone for years now even in the daylight hours.
In this city the trees and the vagrants have all the rights, privileges. Street Person Privilege. Why? Because they have no money.
But it YOU put one step wrong the full weight of police, lawyers, judges will be brought down upon you. Why? Because you have MONEY.
Their gold plated benefits and pensions will not fund themselves.
Learn how the game is played lads


— You think these Millennials gonna stand up to a brutus with a pony tail? They are still cowering over flue-like things.
Head to your Safe Spaces people!! They know compliance. Follow The Rules and get a pat on the head. Wag wag wag.

https://thevarsity.ca/2022/09/04/uoft-utfa-mask-mandate-fall-petition/
The University of Toronto’s Student Newspaper Since 1880
Most recently, the UTFA called on the university to reinstate a mask mandate.
The association launched a petition in May that has since garnered over 2,650 signatures.
While students living in residences must be fully vaccinated, with at least one booster shot, the university has suspended its general vaccine and mask requirements since May 1 and July 1, respectively.

#21 PeterfromCalgary on 09.06.22 at 4:50 pm

What the world needs now is to press reset on all the delusional green policies.

Trudeau exporting green hydrogen made with wind turbines is pie in the sky. The world needs affordable natural gas not expensive to produce hydrogen.

Electric cars can only work if we have electricity of charge them. We will need to slow the unrealistic goals and timelines on that front.

Most of all we need to “drill baby drill”!

#22 DON on 09.06.22 at 4:53 pm

Been following Luz Truss for the last 6 months ever since see made the mistake on Russian territory.

Dog help Britain!

#23 Underwriting on 09.06.22 at 4:53 pm

Can anyone speak to what these rate hikes do to the auto market? I come asking as a cash buyer looking to buy the growing family anything but a minivan. Usually would buy something lightly used. Just wondering if we should expect rising rates to potentially increase inventory, and inversely lower prices? In no rush.

#24 Søren Angst on 09.06.22 at 4:53 pm

Snowball Earth?

Scorched Earth?

For most of N. America the former this Winter and not the latter.

Any hardcore gardener like I am will swear by the Farmers Almanac (The Farmer’s Almanac has been around for 230 years and claims an 80% accuracy rate for its weather predictions, unlike Armageddon Environment Canada) … scroll to map.

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/canadian-extended-forecast

[Brisk even for you La La Land – FYI from me using the Almanac for over 30 years on the Left Coast, Brisk means COLD with winds]

————-

Your welcome 🍁 Igloo/Ark Dwellers

————-

I wonder if Scorched Earth NBC will have time to report on California this Winter whilst frozen into position at 30 Rockefeller Plaza & everywhere else … scroll to map:

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/extended-forecast

Italia, where it matters (you know, no more nat gas from Putin), nobody knows what comes this Winter. Weather forecasts come from the Airforce in Italia (Meteo dell’Aeronautica). All they know is it will continue to be hot this month. Scroll to graphic.

https://www.meteogiornale.it/2022/09/meteo-notizia/stagionali/settembre-il-tempo-che-fara-meteo-aeronautica/

Me praying for our usual, in Winter:

Anticiclone subtropicale africano & Dec 2021 weather

https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticiclone_subtropicale_africano

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/31/24c-in-spain-15c-in-the-alps-oddly-warm-end-to-2021-in-parts-of-europe

One perk in Italia is that we are just North of the Sahara Desert; whereas you Canada, are just South of the Arctic Circle.

#25 Housing Bear on 09.06.22 at 4:53 pm

Rumor is that Adam Vaughan is grinding his teeth at night.

#26 WTF on 09.06.22 at 5:00 pm

#18 Tom “Prices have barely moved on the West Coast. If we are halfway through the cycle, then many will probably be able to ride it out.”
————————————————————–

Like this DT Van Condo?

https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1565903589729792000/photo/1

Or this 900k W Van Haircut?

https://twitter.com/mortimer_1/status/1566079752804667398

A quick look at Zillow or Zealty indicates almost every listing has price reductions. Looks like a slow melt for sure but some substantial reductions in selling price as well.

#27 AM in MN on 09.06.22 at 5:07 pm

Brexit wasn’t a mistake, although it didn’t go far enough. They need to get out from under the unaccountable EU Court of Justice.

The mistake was to destroy their energy industry and convince themselves they could run on pixie dust.

Where are all the greenies who should be out telling people they don’t need natural gas to heat their homes and water, wind power can do it!

The problem is when reality hits and it turns out the citizens still like warm houses in the winter, airplane flights, reliable car transport, trucks to deliver goods etc. To keep consuming while stopping producing is just a ticket to bankruptcy.

All democracies eventually vote to destroy themselves, and then along come the strongmen and the revolutions, and then the cycle repeats.

#28 dave on 09.06.22 at 5:08 pm

Your post from a few days ago read Major pricing correction ahead….25% or more.

Now it reads that the rich immigrants will be coming into Canada and will start buying.

So is there a correction or just a blip before prices go back up?

#29 Sail Away on 09.06.22 at 5:09 pm

#23 Underwriting on 09.06.22 at 4:53 pm

Can anyone speak to what these rate hikes do to the auto market? I come asking as a cash buyer looking to buy the growing family anything but a minivan. Usually would buy something lightly used. Just wondering if we should expect rising rates to potentially increase inventory, and inversely lower prices? In no rush.

———-

A new car with decent finance rates is almost always the best financial decision. Drive it for ten years and repeat.

#30 an investor on 09.06.22 at 5:14 pm

Canadians are starting to notice that housing isn’t as expensive in the States.

Niagara Falls, Ontario, RE is significantly more expensive as similar homes on the other side of the border … and our government’s response is to build more condos, like China. And we know how that turned out.

BTW, full point tomorrow. Many will be rinsed.

https://twitter.com/rCanadaHousing/status/1566807616369528832?cxt=HHwWgMCo0bnOtb4rAAAA

#31 Søren Angst on 09.06.22 at 5:15 pm

#18 Tom

Are you sure that you live on the West Coast and not somewhere else?

—————–

Updated median price declines from the peak to August.

DETACHED:
Fraser Valley: -25% -$443,000
Greater Vancouver: -16% -$325,000
Kelowna: -23%, $-325k
Surrey: -25% -$473,000
South Surrey: -19% -$400,000
Cloverdale: -30% -$530,000

https://twitter.com/jesse_kleine/status/1565789650471755776

Mission:

https://twitter.com/jesse_kleine/status/1565747929180422144

In August, median prices fell again in almost every single market.

Fraser Valley m/m
Detached: -5.9% (-$78k)
Townhouse: -6.8% (-$53k)
Condos: -5.9% (-$30k)

Greater Vancouver m/m
Detached: -2.9% (-$50k)
Th: -7.2% (-$67k)
Condo: -1.2% (-$8k)

https://twitter.com/jesse_kleine/status/1565746138057408512

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.22 at 5:29 pm

@#29 Sail Away
“A new car with decent finance rates is almost always the best financial decision. Drive it for ten years and repeat.”

+++
Yep.
I hate car payments.
I bought a new 2014 Toyota Tacoma with 50% down and 50% financed at 0.8% interest.
My entire principal interest payment was $450 bucks over the 4 years.
I maintain the vehicle and hang on to it a minimum 10 years…usually 20.
It looks new and runs like a top.
84,000 kms after 8 years.
Beats Ponzie’s mass transit “loser cruiser” every day of the week.

#33 ElGatoNeroYVR on 09.06.22 at 5:34 pm

29 Sail Away on 09.06.22 at 5:09 pm
#23 Underwriting on 09.06.22 at 4:53 pm

Can anyone speak to what these rate hikes do to the auto market? I come asking as a cash buyer looking to buy the growing family anything but a minivan.«»
———-
A new car with decent finance rates is almost always the best financial decision. Drive it for ten years and repeat.
====
Yes ,10 years is the best , but I get bored at around the 3 years mark so
I personally tend to stick with 5-7 years and look for rates close to or at 0% . Always bought with a baloon payment and refinanced at 5 years if I decided to keep the car.
Costs a bit more but canˋt beat the peace of mind that comes with a new car.
Sadly for a growing family the mini-van is still the best option from an overall cost perspective /km ( gas ,maintenance ,payment ,insurance).
SUVˋs cost a lot more to run and insure.
Why use the cash when you can get a good finance rate below inflation ?

#34 VanIslander on 09.06.22 at 6:00 pm

Sorry to hear what happened to you Garth. Karma will visit that SOB. Victoria has had random attacks for the last few years and getting worse. Even in the nice areas of town you wouldn’t expect it.

The massive never ending developments is mind blowing here too. Along with the density comes the tailgating road ragers that taunt you daily in brutal traffic by YYJ standards. I fear this is just a preview for when this whole RE thing tanks.

#35 Linda on 09.06.22 at 6:17 pm

Sparki looks like a real cuddle pup:)

I’ve no idea whether it is coincidental, but our CC company recently sent us (& presumably all their clients) a massive tome regarding changes to the card. Since we never carry a balance the changes for the most part don’t affect us, but we both noted a tightening of ‘the rules’ regarding missed payments. Previously one could miss two payment due dates before consequences would occur; the company has now reduced the number of strikes to one. In effect, missing more than one payment due date means the interest rate will jump substantially (by 5%) on all purchases/cash advances for the next 12 calendar months. Obviously the higher rate will apply to any outstanding balance. If after 12 months one hasn’t missed any due dates the rate will revert to whatever it was prior to missing a payment. Rinse & repeat. There are some so called enhancements to insurance coverage & apparently the rewards points will be increased on certain cards, albeit with all sorts of caveats including a cap on reward points for $ spent. For instance, those spending more than $5K per year at a restaurant won’t earn the enhanced rewards points on restaurant purchases exceeding the $5K per year cap. All of these new rules effective as of October 30th, 2022.

We have also received a number of ‘you have been pre-approved’ notifications regarding our CC limit. We haven’t bothered to take up any of said offers as our current limit is more than sufficient, but I do wonder how many financially stretched households are doing just that. Ideally such offers wouldn’t be proffered to those already sinking but in reality I’m sure that ‘helping hand’ is being extended to every client.

#36 Shirl Clarts on 09.06.22 at 6:21 pm

Your standard entry level 3bd 3bth ‘sardine’ (14 ft across) townhouse in Maple Ridge BC is down in price about 28-30% since the February peak of insanity when they were fetching just north of a million. However, if it’s dressed up to look ‘unique’ in staging elements, it will be first to go for around $725K. Asking price of around $750K gets crickets. Typical sales (and few of them) are around $680-700K.

Maple Ridge is what I consider ‘bunny patchy’, so it holds true – regions around the YVR core are getting whacked… much harder.

In the news, reports of consumers using credit card debt to cover basic spending, like groceries and gas. Missed payments starting to rise. I believe this is largely the new home buyer segment (has to be, since a HELOC is way cheaper than a CC).

If households start cutting discretionary spending it might help out inflation, but not housing.

Gas expected to go up again after the short reprieve. Add in higher rates and I think we can expect to see housing prices go even lower this fall.

Bank of Mom is going to be harder to hit up because their own equity shrank. Plus the higher VRM means higher maintenance costs for the parents.

#37 Ponnaps on 09.06.22 at 6:27 pm

No one cares about the UK anymore ..power and pelf have moved westward to Washington DC and they are a reducing influence globally…

It takes a special kind of incompetence to squander all that loot of 300 years of colonialism and lead yourself to debt and economic misery in under 3/4 of a century.. Or maybe the world has become that much more transparent and less monopolistic that the former imperial cunning and deceit just do not work anymore..

#38 Brian on 09.06.22 at 6:30 pm

Always buy my vehicles with cash. I let them think I’m doing financing and let them give me a quote. I then tell them I want the out the door price. I give them a figure I’m willing to pay (lower). When it’s time to sign, I then say it’s now a cash deal. They are not to happy but agree any way. You see they have room to negotiate when you let them think financing as they get a kick back from the finance company.

#39 Penny Henny on 09.06.22 at 6:37 pm

#328 Dharma Bum on 09.06.22 at 9:39 am
What puzzles me is how that creep hasn’t been arrested and incarcerated already for the fashion crime of wearing a pony tail at 40 years of age.

That’s the most disturbing part of this story.

//////////////

That’s funny cause I always pictured you with a ponytail (and balding).
No offence

#40 Steven Rowlandson on 09.06.22 at 6:39 pm

This is no where near what is implied by the Taylor rule.
Is it a matter of time or something else Garth?

#41 Penny Henny on 09.06.22 at 6:45 pm

#359 Faron on 09.06.22 at 1:06 pm
#348 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.22 at 12:22 pm
+++
The basics?

Okay, I’ll relent. And, I’ll put it in terms that you, a fellow hyperposter, can probably understand even if you wont admit it to yourself and maybe get a little angry or deliver uncomfortable laughter at my expense — so be it:

1) The high: You see a comment from Ponz and you know you’ve got a good zinger that will win the internet for all time and totally pwn Ponzie. You send it. You feel like a champion, little giddy even. Certain that Ponz will be devastated.

2) The come down: Comment is approved by Garth and published but… no… response… How could this be? And someone else responded to your comment in a way you don’t like and this makes you feel kinda bad.

3) The clawing/dope-sick: you’ve got to get back to 1, the high. Maybe you’ll read the comments again, yeah, seeing Sail Away zing Faron will do it. Maybe I’ll think of a rant about Trudeau. Maybe I’ll pour another whisky. But nothing was like the reely good pwn of Ponzie. But you keep commenting and commenting maybe getting a little meaner (8+ for you here already) because you aren’t. quite. getting. there. Your high, I mean.

4a) Scoring: you work a little desperately, a little obsessively and finally Ponz tees up a nice one for you to put down — whamo, you’ve scored.

4b) Recovery: The alternate universe that you don’t inhabit. You decide to take the higher road and work your way away from the comments section a bit. Hey, maybe 10 posts per day (I think that’s about your average) is a tad too many. Also, the high just ain’t worth it. You’re losing friends, drinking more, maybe putting on some weight. Ugh, this is not good. You’re going to try to kick this. Super hard process because you’ve worn a pattern into your brain via the dopamine reward system that has the power to lead you to demise over your own, more difficult, recovery.

etc.

Not nearly as egregious as a person who is truly dope-sick and decides to assault our fine host. But, it’s the exact same process. For you it’s dopamine, for The Rat it’s an opiate (and maybe a whole lot more) but the addictive process is identical. Learn to recognize the stages.

Also don’t forget step 0) Pain to kill: Why are you addicted to commenting here? Because you are in some kind of pain. Good luck.

NB: Coincidentally, I live trapped a rat overnight. Now it’s up to me to determine it’s fate. I’m most definitely not asking for this group’s advice.

?????????????????

This is the way your mind works?
No wonder you are fooked in the head.

#42 BC Doc on 09.06.22 at 6:51 pm

Garth,
Sorry about you encounter with the antisocial a-hole.
May your seen and unseen wounds heal quickly and without lingering effects.
All the best,
BC Doc

#43 Syd Cixel on 09.06.22 at 7:01 pm

Re: “To be the new Maggie Thatcher (Google her, kids).” The same advice applies for names such as Ronald Reagan, Brian Mulroney, and even, here in Ontario, Mike Harris. These individuals shaped their respective jurisdictions dramatically and permanently, but the younger generations have little knowledge about their influence.

#44 Victor Llearna on 09.06.22 at 7:11 pm

Bank of Canada needs to teach the sheep a lesson. let go 10,000 bps hike tomorrow. back to 15% mortgages overnight, house prices will fix themselves.

#45 Ed on 09.06.22 at 7:15 pm

We could only dream of an old chick named Thatcher running our country.
Alas…Pierre will have to do.

#46 Klaus on 09.06.22 at 7:21 pm

DELETED

#47 fishman on 09.06.22 at 7:30 pm

Penny Henny: Roll up a newspaper & light it on fire. Grab the rat by the tail & singe all the hair off of it. Let the rat go.

#48 Quintilian on 09.06.22 at 7:34 pm

“And what does Liz Truss want? To be the new Maggie Thatcher (Google her, kids).”

The British are in serious denial of their perpetual decline.

“meet the new boss, same as the old boss”

Seems to me that they just replaced a male buffoon with a female buffoon.
Mind you, among the conservatives everywhere, substance is hard to find.

For somebody who declares herself as a small governmemt-free marketer, she sure is planning to do a lot of tinkering.

Typical conservative bs.

#49 Mattl on 09.06.22 at 7:36 pm

3.75 is going to tame 7.75? Guess time will tell but sounds like BOC is set to back off BEFORE inflation is wrangled. Which is what a lot of folks predicted here.

Let’s see if they have the guts to raise another 300bps and send financial and RE markets into a further tailspin. Let’s see how serious they are about their single mandate, inflation.

#50 P. Mahone on 09.06.22 at 7:42 pm

The future of the UK is on shaky ground.
Most likely Scottish independence and renewed strife and/or civil war in N Ireland. Combined with economic malaise, outdated class system, terrible crime and horrendous food, things do not look good. Maybe the French or Italians should take over the place, teach them how to cook and play soccer!

#51 Wrk.dover on 09.06.22 at 7:43 pm

We declined zero interest in 2001 and got $1800 knocked off the price of a mid sized Chevrolet. This year, Honda Canada forced us to take a two year 2% loan, which can then be paid in full after six months, in order to get the lowest possible price. No wonder the country is full of brand new debt!

The replacement price of that car went up about 5% before it was delivered, seven weeks later. We’ve had it four months and bought gas once. Inflation hedge.

Instead of a Tesla, we got the ten mile per litre Civic with enough change left in our unregistered funds to grab a 35HP tractor with loader and backhoe. It was up 10% in replacement price before it was delivered. Now, four months later, has four hours on the meter. Including tax, it cost us $10.00 CDN/lb. Try and machine that for that in the near green future.

Will be watching that indoor parked toy inflate in the next few years. That’s all it can do. Same as in the 80’s.

Nonplused says buy all things. I agree, including solar power, and AQN.

#52 IHCTD9 on 09.06.22 at 7:44 pm

#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.22 at 5:29 pm
@#29 Sail Away
“A new car with decent finance rates is almost always the best financial decision. Drive it for ten years and repeat.”

+++
Yep.
I hate car payments.
I bought a new 2014 Toyota Tacoma with 50% down and 50% financed at 0.8% interest.
My entire principal interest payment was $450 bucks over the 4 years.
I maintain the vehicle and hang on to it a minimum 10 years…usually 20.
It looks new and runs like a top.
84,000 kms after 8 years.
Beats Ponzie’s mass transit “loser cruiser” every day of the week
————

.8%?! Should have financed the whole thing! :)

I buy ‘em 2-3 years old for wife at damn near half price (pre-Covid), and drive them till they drop. Ms. IH’s car is at 260K and shows no sign of giving up, still looks almost new.

Myself, lately I buy the “old Man” trucks that were treated like a queen, oiled every year, and still on owner #1. Got two right now, 19 and 31 years old; both in outstanding condition. Incidentally, I bought both from Quebec.

#53 Michel HFX on 09.06.22 at 7:47 pm

And the real estate cartel in Halifax continues to post “helpful” videos like this one:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrToCMfGCec

#54 Phil Soper on 09.06.22 at 7:51 pm

Not just remax gonna feel it.

#55 Cloverdale Rodeo on 09.06.22 at 7:53 pm

#1 for house price dropping in BC. Already cracking 30% down.

Who would have thought?

Yeeeeeeeeeeehaw.

#56 Storkpix on 09.06.22 at 7:54 pm

Anyone know waddup with Enbridge stock, down more than 6% on NYSE in last 5 days?

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.06.22 at 8:00 pm

Wow,
Garth is back in full swing.
Take that you whiners.
You know who you are.
One starts with the letter F.

#58 ramptant inflation on 09.06.22 at 8:14 pm

Of course another 100 beeps would means cardiac arrest at Re/Max

__________________________________________

and stocks, don’t forget stocks. 100 bpts will collapse markets too.

with 20% “inflation” in the UK … are they in recession or not?

#59 Sail Away on 09.06.22 at 8:21 pm

It’s irritating that the truly great self defense tools are illegal in Canada. Two of the best are an extendable spring baton and tazer. But nope- illegal. So what’s allowed? A knife. More dangerous. Goofy rules.

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.06.22 at 8:22 pm

#37 Ponnaps on 09.06.22 at 6:27 pm
No one cares about the UK anymore ..power and pelf have moved westward to Washington DC and they are a reducing influence globally…

It takes a special kind of incompetence to squander all that loot of 300 years of colonialism and lead yourself to debt and economic misery in under 3/4 of a century.. Or maybe the world has become that much more transparent and less monopolistic that the former imperial cunning and deceit just do not work anymore..
————–
India, the former vassal state of the UK, has leapfrogged the UK and is now the fifth largest economy on mother earth.
According to India media.
China is giving the States a run for World domination.
Interesting.

#61 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 09.06.22 at 8:22 pm

The curve would be exponential, would it not? I bet it really takes off into the hundreds quick once it passes 12%. I hope this is like a blow-off top for inflation and the adjoined rate. I figure .75 on the hike and 4.25 on the fed BOC overnighter.

#62 TurnerNation on 09.06.22 at 8:23 pm

In my opinion…the police better have a sketch artist on the case. This goes way beyond a simple exchange of words and a shove or two.
We got hundreds of blog dogs in the Financial and St. Lawrence districts, locals and commuters. Armed with phones.
Hire a poster kid to plaster the place.
Justice is a dish best served on the side.

#63 Flop… on 09.06.22 at 8:25 pm

Flop Drops.

You guys handle the macro, I’ll take care of the micro.

Only have seen a few go below a million in Surrey, most of them fixer, fixer, fixer uppers.

Yes, you need to fix them 3 times , but you gotta start somewhere.

The details

14085 114a Avenue Surrey.

Asking 975k

Days on market 2

Just sold for 940k

Assessment 1.17

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2720275/14085-114A-AVENUE-Surrey-BC/

So they went for the offload, got what they thought was a decent offer and went for it straight out of the gate.

Got ahead of the market drop, with more rate rises imminent.

I never got into Game Of Thrones, so I wasn’t one of the people disappointed of how the final season went, however I remember the ads on t.v stated, Winter is coming.

The realtors don’t want to hear it, but it’s happening anyway.

The Rate Hikes Are Coming…

M48BC

#64 Phylis on 09.06.22 at 8:31 pm

Chile made the enchilada. We can too!
Ps. Real sorry about the incident, ok and angry too. Reporting is important, these things can escalate and maybe someone else can be helped, even the attacker.

#65 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 09.06.22 at 8:41 pm

I was just keepin’ it Canadian, eh.

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.22 at 8:59 pm

@#57 Ponzie’s Perjoratives
“Take that you whiners.
You know who you are.
One starts with the letter F.”

+++
Faron?

#67 Randy on 09.06.22 at 9:03 pm

Wake Up…..Liz Truss is Gender Inverted….just like the Rest of them #EGI #ForensicAnthropology

#68 Wrk.dover on 09.06.22 at 9:12 pm

I get zero hedge makes our host cringe, but here is a good bedtime story. I found it on the news side bar on FinVis, which Turner Nation introduced me to. Dog bless Turner and Turner Nation too, so much learning going on here! Every blessed day.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/why-some-cities-may-no-longer-be-viable

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.22 at 9:14 pm

@#60 Ponzie’s Political Ponderings
“India, the former vassal state of the UK, has leapfrogged the UK and is now the fifth largest economy on mother earth.
According to India media.
China is giving the States a run for World domination.”

+++
India is almost as corrupt as Russia.
The Court system is a shambles following the govt’s lead.
Millions of govt workers (“the Raj”) to slow every application.
Religious Hindu Nationalists attacking Muslims at the most minor of provocations .

China.
Led by “uncle Xi” the man who almost singularly takes credit for saving them from Covid via endless lockdowns.
As the Real Estate construction stalls and the banks that support it waver.
The US just slapped American chip manufacturers with bans on selling high tech chips to China.
(Why help China as it continues thousands of hacking attempts to steal our best secrets?)

All while global warming raises the extinction stakes as the dictators(Russia, China ), the autocrats (India, Turkey,Brasil etc etc etc), the useless (Canada) leadership blather on and on and on.

P.S.
Ponzie.
I watched a Netflix documentary last night.
It appears that Austrians set up the ‘ratlines” to scurry the wanted Nazi’s out of post war Germany with fake I.D.’s and travel documents to Spain and South America.
How entrepreneurial of them.

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.06.22 at 9:20 pm

#59 Sail Away on 09.06.22 at 8:21 pm
It’s irritating that the truly great self defense tools are illegal in Canada. Two of the best are an extendable spring baton and tazer. But nope- illegal. So what’s allowed? A knife. More dangerous. Goofy rules.
—————–
Irritating?
Sailo, you’re just a guest here.
Don’t like it.
Take a hike.

#71 Grunt on 09.06.22 at 9:29 pm

Oil & gas windfall tax.

#72 Grunt on 09.06.22 at 9:31 pm

More Kim Campbell than T.

#73 THE DANDADA on 09.06.22 at 9:35 pm

$4.99 a pound for chicken drumsticks!!!!!

Are you FRICKIN kiddin me?

So what are we raising rates for then?

#74 Karate Kiddo on 09.06.22 at 9:43 pm

#59 Sail Away on 09.06.22 at 8:21 pm
It’s irritating that the truly great self defense tools are illegal in Canada”

The greatest self defense tool is the mind, and becoming like water .. to quote Bruce Lee,

“Empty your mind, be formless. Shapeless, like water. If you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. You put water into a bottle and it becomes the bottle. You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now, water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.”

#75 Juve101 on 09.06.22 at 9:50 pm

Garth is back in full force! No one will knock Mr. Turner down :)
Good to have you back, life feels normal again.

#76 Grandma Sue on 09.06.22 at 9:56 pm

Why would re/max care if rates go up, they bend sellers over the table equally in both bull and bear RE markets. It all goes back in the box soon anyways

#77 Doug t on 09.06.22 at 10:07 pm

DAMMIT JIM I’M A DOCTOR NOT A FORTUNE TELLER

#78 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.06.22 at 10:21 pm

The US just slapped American chip manufacturers with bans on selling high tech chips to China.
(Why help China as it continues thousands of hacking attempts to steal our best secrets?)
————————————
#69 Furz
Fail again.
Taiwan and South Korea are the world’s largest chip manufactures.
Unless you mean potato chips.

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.22 at 10:24 pm

A sobering climate video
A lot of swear words but well worth the 3 minutes or so to see the guest celebrity at the very end.

https://youtu.be/1FqXTCvDLeo

#80 Jane24 on 09.06.22 at 10:36 pm

So what is happening right now in Britain as someone who lives here.

Pound is going down vs the Canadian dollar badly but holding vs the euro. I get my pensions in Cdn dollars and pay for my holiday home in euros so lucky me.

Millions of empty jobs right now. So if inflation takes off as the scaremongers claim maybe more folk will come out of the great covid resignation and fill some of these jobs. Small businesses that I know just can’t find anyone and are cutting their opening hours for lack of staff. Not helpful for the economy. After free covid hand-outs there are so many people staying at home that could be working.

Green energy is finished here now. Too unreliable and not enough of it. Green taxes to be eliminated. The new PM says spades in the earth so I assume that North Sea oil, gas fracking and coal are coming back fast.

House prices are holding so far, two sales on the road in the last 2 weeks, but then they never had a huge covid bounce in the first place. Up just 10% in the last year. Rental prices are shooting up though and I am a landlord.

Food up for sure but no idea how much as I don’t really pay attention but very surprised that easy jet is getting me to Italy in October for £28 and Portugal in November for £22! I don’t need a suitcase.

Energy prices shooting through the roof so we will all freeze in the dark this winter. Maggie was wrong to privatize our gas fields. Here on the south coast of England our weather is the same as Vancouver so we run heat and hot water in the mornings and evenings. Never on at night. Apparently a 6 month wait to install a wood stove!! Already decided to snow bird south in Jan and Feb so I don’t have to pay it!!

Remember that all that really counts in life is health, family and fellowship. The rest is just gravy.

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.22 at 10:43 pm

@#78 Ponzies Painful Pshaw
“Fail again.
Taiwan and South Korea are the world’s largest chip manufactures.”

++++

Errr, yes, but because they have partial US ownership through stock holdings they come under US Trade Laws and bans.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiD3raH1IH6AhWSAjQIHRIaCwgQvOMEKAB6BAgCEAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Ftechnology%2Fbanned-us-ai-chips-high-demand-chinese-state-institutes-2022-09-06%2F&usg=AOvVaw2mQjiegiFmD5pie4wvND5l

What the US demands.
Taiwan does.

#82 Sail Away on 09.06.22 at 10:59 pm

09.06.22 at 9:43 pm

#59 Sail Away on 09.06.22 at 8:21 pm
It’s irritating that the truly great self defense tools are illegal in Canada”

———-

The greatest self defense tool is the mind, and becoming like water .. to quote Bruce Lee,

“Empty your mind, be formless. Shapeless, like water…”

———-

Add ‘boneless and in agony’ for ponytail man’s reaction upon encountering tazer magic.

#83 AM in MN on 09.06.22 at 11:34 pm

#80 Jane24 on 09.06.22 at 10:36 pm

……..Maggie was wrong to privatize our gas fields.

———————————————

That has nothing to do with it. The issue is the Govt. not allowing drilling or other energy infrastructure to be built.

Have you ever worked on a drill rig with a State run oil company? Compared to a private one? Do you think the private ones don’t want more supply?

A don’t be so sure the green agenda is done. Too much money being made by millions of people feeding off the dream. Ever looked at the night life at a COP conference? Would you give up that lifestyle? These people won’t go down without a fight.

Liz has about 2 weeks to let it be known which way she tilts and how hard she’s willing to push!

#84 DON on 09.07.22 at 12:00 am

#38 Brian on 09.06.22 at 6:30 pm
Always buy my vehicles with cash. I let them think I’m doing financing and let them give me a quote. I then tell them I want the out the door price. I give them a figure I’m willing to pay (lower). When it’s time to sign, I then say it’s now a cash deal. They are not to happy but agree any way. You see they have room to negotiate when you let them think financing as they get a kick back from the finance company.
******

Thanks for the info. I’m currently browsing the car lots comparing all models etc. I can’t believe the 96 month payment plans. Waiting patiently to see how the near future unfolds.

#85 the jaguar on 09.07.22 at 12:02 am

@80 Jane24. I really appreciate the candor and detail you provide in your posts Jane24.
They are always interesting and sharing your experiences overseas and in Canada is very interesting. Thank you.

#86 DON on 09.07.22 at 12:18 am

#52 IHCTD9 on 09.06.22 at 7:44 pm
#32 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.22 at 5:29 pm
@#29 Sail Away
“A new car with decent finance rates is almost always the best financial decision. Drive it for ten years and repeat.”

+++
Yep.
I hate car payments.
I bought a new 2014 Toyota Tacoma with 50% down and 50% financed at 0.8% interest.
My entire principal interest payment was $450 bucks over the 4 years.
I maintain the vehicle and hang on to it a minimum 10 years…usually 20.
It looks new and runs like a top.
84,000 kms after 8 years.
Beats Ponzie’s mass transit “loser cruiser” every day of the week
————

.8%?! Should have financed the whole thing! :)

I buy ‘em 2-3 years old for wife at damn near half price (pre-Covid), and drive them till they drop. Ms. IH’s car is at 260K and shows no sign of giving up, still looks almost new.

Myself, lately I buy the “old Man” trucks that were treated like a queen, oiled every year, and still on owner #1. Got two right now, 19 and 31 years old; both in outstanding condition. Incidentally, I bought both from Quebec.

*******

I do similiar on Vancouver Island. Buy a vehicle from a senior who never misses a maintenance window and barely drives the car. Low km…clean and well maintained. Drive them till high Km then repeat. Looking for a Toyota SUV at the moment.

#87 Doug t on 09.07.22 at 12:26 am

Also ……. how you feeling Garth?

#88 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.07.22 at 12:32 am

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.06.22 at 10:43 pm
@#78 Ponzies Painful Pshaw
“Fail again.
Taiwan and South Korea are the world’s largest chip manufactures.”

++++

Errr, yes, but because they have partial US ownership through stock holdings they come under US Trade Laws and bans.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiD3raH1IH6AhWSAjQIHRIaCwgQvOMEKAB6BAgCEAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Ftechnology%2Fbanned-us-ai-chips-high-demand-chinese-state-institutes-2022-09-06%2F&usg=AOvVaw2mQjiegiFmD5pie4wvND5l

What the US demands.
Taiwan does.
———————
Sanctions rarely work, as you should know by now.
And there’s also Northkorea.
And the Chinese produce a lot of tech stuff, too.
It’s a connected world.
Get used to it.

#89 Buzz Lightyear on 09.07.22 at 1:57 am

Interest rates?

To infinity – and beyond!!

#90 bankish on 09.07.22 at 5:20 am

#56 Storkpix All pipeline stock(and everything bluechip) is down in the last 5 days. Relax and collect your 6.33% dividend.

#91 Wrk.dover on 09.07.22 at 6:50 am

Imagine having a net worth of one million dollars, and not wanting your wife to squander 3% of it on a brand new car, but drive a beater instead!!!

They occupy this site.

#92 maxx on 09.07.22 at 7:22 am

@ #7

¨They bring with them a culture of respect for others. ¨

Yesterday, as I exited a shop, a latino couple arrived at the door. The wife flashed a smile and greeted me with ¨good morning¨ in a heavy accent. Her husband did the same and held the door wide open for me. Wow.

Canada needs more people like that couple. You could tell that they are a hard-working and optimistic part of society. I very much doubt that they have any problem returning to work at the office. I can only imagine what they think of the generalized level of laziness crystallized since the onset of COVID-19.

#93 maxx on 09.07.22 at 8:00 am

@ #34

Agree 100%. Road ragers are increasing. Stick to the speed limit and you´re asking for trouble. Yesterday, I was nearly run off the road by a truck following me. He had to be doing at least 120 in a 70km zone.

This will become far worse as rates rise and those with debt are stuck in a worsening position. Like ripping the lolly out of a child´s mouth, having to give up some (or all) of the toys will have ripple effects throughout society.

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.07.22 at 8:31 am

@#88 Ponzie’s Proletariat Pals
“Sanctions rarely work, as you should know by now.
And there’s also Northkorea.”
++++

Ahh yes North Korea.
The Hermit Kingdom.
Where the entire population has been starved almost to death by the “Dear Leader” so he can continue building nukes and missiles.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiwnrLu1YL6AhUaADQIHQi3AaEQFnoECD8QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fworld-asia-59144712&usg=AOvVaw0LCK4J8A0M0VR9LtMdYGqh

As for the Chinese “producing a lot of tech stuff”…
The “tech stuff produced” is what ever Western Nations have either allowed them to manufacture under patent agreement OR what ever they have stolen through patent infringement..
From 2016 to 2021 there were 46,000 patent infringement case in CHINESE courts.
Experts estimate that is about half the true number of patent infringements.
It makes one wonder.
After they conquer the world.
Who will they steal new “tech stuff” ideas from?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjelre91oL6AhUoATQIHaSJAXsQFnoECAcQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fchina-wields-new-legal-weapon-to-fight-claims-of-intellectual-property-theft-11632654001&usg=AOvVaw2h8Dt_FTt_9qnmw7DCWqqJ

One can be sure that if they invade Taiwan.
The first thing the US will bomb is….the “high tech chip stuff”.
Can’t have China disassembling (and shipping them to the Motherland ) those state of the art Danish micro chip copiers that the Taiwanese industry needs so desperately……

#95 [email protected] on 09.07.22 at 9:05 am

A day late, sorry about your misfortune with Ponytail.
I had a very similar experience just outside your door here in Lberg about a month ago. Guy wanted to fight me. Im 65 and crip in both legs. He and his family where walking down the middle of King street and I asked if there was something wrong with the sidewalk, he immediately went to fight mode. He was hoping somebody would say something so he could beat up any old person. Probably around 26-28 yrs old and rock stupid, aggressive towards those he knows he can beat.

#96 Quintilian on 09.07.22 at 9:26 am

It’s really amazing how most of the curmudgeons on this blog make claim to wisdom, and often mock us younger ones for lack of experience.

This is your fundamental flaw: your reliance on personal experience which is both limited and faulty as your logic.

There is really no mystery. If you mute your own horn tooting long enough to read the most basic economic writings of true scholars, you will note the answer is as one of your contemporaries sings:

“the answer is easy if you look at it logically”

https://mises.org/power-market/cantillon-effects-business-cycles-and-market-bubbles

“Cantillon effects may take months, or years to have their full effect: money can be poured into one market, without inflationary consequences in the rest of the economy for years.”

I’m sure Shawn can provide a link to the growth of money supply in Canada.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#97 Dharma Bum on 09.07.22 at 9:28 am

#12 Nonplused

The emergency rates must end.
———————————————————————————————————

First things first.

What needs to end immediately is your enabling of your children’s fast track to diabetes and chronic disease.

STOP them from consuming Coca Cola immediately. You are poisoning them!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbOHU9s6V5E

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2009/06/104177/sugar-poison-says-ucsf-obesity-expert

https://www.cdc.gov/nutrition/data-statistics/sugar-sweetened-beverages-intake.html

Save their lives now.

#98 baloney Sandwitch on 09.07.22 at 9:28 am

UK’s inflation rate is mostly energy shock. Non-energy inflation is less than 5%.

#99 Dharma Bum on 09.07.22 at 9:33 am

#39 Penny Henny

That’s funny cause I always pictured you with a ponytail (and balding).
No offence.
——————————————————————————————————-

Who? Me? I resemble that remark!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uM1MlQ0S64

You’re right about the balding. No pony tail though. (But if I could – I would.)

LOL

#100 Dharma Bum on 09.07.22 at 9:43 am

#75 Juve 101

Garth is back in full force! No one will knock Mr. Turner down :)
——————————————————————————————————–

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egN8CjfQkxc

#101 Housing Bear on 09.07.22 at 9:58 am

3 minutes is taking long to read the announcements.

#102 Summertime on 09.07.22 at 10:05 am

Lil’ chicken Tiff continues the policy of strongly negative real interest rates. With official CPI 7.6 %, (real inflation of necessities double that) now the rates are at the ‘astronomical’ 3.25 % which translates to (minus) -4.45 – 10.14 % based on the metrics you choose

I.e. strongly accommodative monetary policy that fuels further inflation continues.

#103 Observer on 09.07.22 at 10:06 am

Uppa .75%

#104 Summertime on 09.07.22 at 10:08 am

#98 baloney Sandwitch on 09.07.22 at 9:28 am
UK’s inflation rate is mostly energy shock. Non-energy inflation is less than 5%.

Not really. ‘Official’ Inflation of food:

https://www.dairyreporter.com/Article/2022/08/18/UK-food-inflation-soars-to-14-year-high-and-dairy-products-are-hardest-hit

Food inflation has reached 12.8% year on year – the highest value on record since August 2008 – fuelling a higher-than expected overall consumer price index (CPI) of 10.1%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed.

#105 Don Guillermo on 09.07.22 at 3:50 pm

#59 Sail Away on 09.06.22 at 8:21 pm
It’s irritating that the truly great self defense tools are illegal in Canada. Two of the best are an extendable spring baton and tazer. But nope- illegal. So what’s allowed? A knife. More dangerous. Goofy rules.
@@@@@@@
I purchased a 16″ collapsible police force tactical baton on line 3 or 4 years ago to bring to Mexico. Before the Ponze gets too excited no it wasn’t for fighting off those evil Mehican banditos. I go for hikes 3 or 4 times a week and have been occasionally challenged by aggressive dogs. I’ve never had to use it but it makes me feel better.

#106 Chaddywack on 09.07.22 at 7:57 pm

Garth,

Would you consider writing a post explaining trigger rates? I’ve never heard of these much until recently and it seems like an interesting topic to discuss.

(not trigger warnings, although a lot of the woke will need that before reading your article I’m sure….. save they start crying in their $10 coffees)