B&D and thee

The days are challenging. The outcome uncertain. Most people try to live their best lives dealing with inflation, debt and expectations. The majority save next to nothing. Now their real estate is wobbly. Insecurity abounds.

The fortunate among us have liquid wealth, but many struggle with where to put it in a volatile world. Stocks have been yo-yos. Bonds have crashed into central bank policy. GICs pay half the inflation rate. For the first time ever people have to worry concurrently about war, weather, nationalism and viruses. Nothing’s simple.

As regular addicts know, since it emerged from the muck in 2008 this blog has yammered on about a balanced and diversified portfolio. Over those 14 years we’ve had an historic credit crash, failed Wall Street banks, a US housing melt, a debt ceiling crisis in Washington, two real estate booms and busts, a few wars, crypto mania and despair, a global pandemic that killed six and a half million, 14% unemployment, meme stocks soaring and falling, a workplace revolution and now the highest inflation in fifty years with an aggressive rate-hike move by 90 central banks.

Whew.

Throughout this, the B&D has chugged away. Gains usually, losses infrequently. A ten-year performance of just under 8% annually, which reflects distributions and capital gains. Not bad. This is how Dorothy and I are invested and rarely do I even look at the portfolio, save for the required rebalancing.

To recap briefly a diversified portfolio is just that: various asset classes and an ETF exposure to each of them. That means an equity fund not individual stocks. A bond fund, not bonds. Preferred and real estate investment trust ETFs, not single issues or companies. By using a low-cost, liquid and highly negotiable exchange-traded fund you spread out risk but retain exposure to growth, dividends or distributions. Netflix or Shopify can crash and burn, for example, and your downside is seriously reduced by owning every other major corporation, including energy and financials to offset.

Balance is obtained by having fixed income and more staid stuff as well as growth assets. A few risk-free government bonds, some higher-paying corporate debt, top-quality preferreds (a hybrid between stocks and bonds) some cash and commercial real estate funds, for example. Balance also comes from having a hunk (maybe 25%) in US$-denominated assets to counterweight our loonie and diversification requires exposure in the overall portfolio between maple, American and international markets.

By the way, balance works. When Covid hit, stocks dropped 35% in weeks. Balanced investors fared far better. This year as CBs tightened the screws the S&P shed 24%. Balanced portfolios gave up 11%. Over the three years of the credit crisis when equity investors were whacked hard, a B&D portfolio averaged 5% annually. If you did nothing between 2008 and 2010, you made money.

In normal times bonds and stocks tend to move in opposite directions, giving a shock absorber, mitigating losses when equities correct. Lately there’s been more correlation between the two, mostly because of aggressive central bank easing then tightening. This will end. Everybody should have some bonds, not for yield (although that has improved greatly) but as a portfolio anchor.

Traditionally the split has been 40% safer stuff and 60% growth. For decade after decade, in recession, boom, inflation, deflation and turmoil, this split has worked. It still does, against a perpetual chorus of derision from stock-pickers, Bitcoin cowboys and Alpha males who think they’re smarter than you and Mr. Market. They’re not. They brag of gains and hide the losses. Such vanity.

Key to B&D success is rebalancing. Human nature makes us chase gainers and dump losers. Bad idea. It leads to being overweight in an asset class that will probably correct, and underweight in those that will gain when the correction occurs. Rebalance routinely. Twice a year is plenty for most. Also be aware of cash building up in a portfolio as interest and dividends accrue, plus the impact of routine RRSP and TFSA contributions. Deposits or withdrawals also mean rebalancing.

Finally, be tax-smart. Capital gains come with a huge discount, so assets generating them should always be in a non-registered account. Ditto with tax-efficient dividend income. Interest is 100% taxed, so tuck bonds inside an RRSP or RRIF. Put the growthiest of equity-based assets in the TFSA. Never a GIC there.

As for the weightings, here’s a good mix:

Cash, 1% (high-yield security)
Bonds (short term, floating rate, provincial, corporate), 26%
Preferreds (active Canadian, hedged North American), 13%
Canadian equities (TSX, dividend, 5% REITs), 22%
US equities (S&P hedged, S&P 500, small cap, value, biotech), 20%
International equities (global index, global dividend, emerging), 18%

Don’t know about you, but my squeeze and I (and the folks I help) have two investment goals: (a) don’t lose money and (b) get a reasonable rate of return.

So far, so good.

About the picture: “Attached is a photo of rescue dog ” Skip ” doing what their breed does so well…guarding the border,” writes Kris. “Interesting fun fact for these highly intelligent border collies is that all examples of their kind typically sport a prominent white tip on their tail.  Known as the ” Shepherd’s Lantern ”  this visible marker served to guide the shepherds home from the pastures at night. If we ever get any sheep on our acreage outside Winnipeg, we will be sure to put it to the test.  Cheers and Best regards from Colleen, Kris and SkipTheWonderDog from The Prairies.”

135 comments ↓

#1 Blair on 09.03.22 at 4:20 pm

Thank you, Garth. I had been wondering about the B&D portfolio during the inflation, interest hikes and so on. This is helpful.

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.22 at 4:30 pm

Good old “Balanced and Diversified”
That train keeps chugging down the track.

@#132 NoName
“Server tip hairstyle, is beating this poor hardworking dude by mile…”

+++
What can I say.
Men are pigs….tails.

#3 Flop… on 09.03.22 at 4:38 pm

Things must be getting tight.

Just got back from getting a key cut, where all good keys are cut, the local laundromat, natch.

When I first got there, I noticed a sign that stated the following.

“Anyone asking for a discount on our key cutting services, will be charged an additional 20%”

As I gingerly wandered up to the counter to talk to the friendly looking lady, I wondered how much was it to get a key cut, that they have to put that sort of sign up.

2 dollars and 50 cents…

M48BC

#4 ramptant inflation on 09.03.22 at 4:39 pm

a balanced portfolio (large cap US stocks, and 10 year treasuries to keep it simple) LOST MONEY

from 1972-1981 lost 25% after inflation(that’s -2.90% pa compounded ) . in nominal terms it made 5.45% during the same period. you didn’t break even after inflation until about 1984/5. it’s actually worse, but the site doesn’t go back far enough.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/

people can go to the site and see for themselves. set up various asset classes, combinations etc. not need to take my word for it. site will adjust for inflation and time periods.

same thing is going to happen now. at least a decade of high inflation, and sub par returns if you stick to a balanced portfolio.

inflation is rampant.

Where did I suggest US Treasuries? – Garth

#5 West New West on 09.03.22 at 4:39 pm

Skip….looks extremely intelligent. Best word to describe that pose would be ‘Regal’

#6 Guyanese politician on 09.03.22 at 4:49 pm

Now is the greatest time to invest in XOM.

Exxon has de facto control of Guyana’s 250 billion estimated barrels of oil offshore Guyana and near the oil rich Orinoco Basin

#7 Reality is stark on 09.03.22 at 4:52 pm

Everything seems reasonable but the North American equity exposure.
Wouldn’t it be more reasonable to hold 27% US and only 15% Canadian?
What is the logic?

Energy, commodities, financials. – Garth

#8 Ahmed Khalifa on 09.03.22 at 4:54 pm

Thank you so much for the generous free advice. You are a true Canadian Hero, can we bring you back to Parliament?

#9 Wrk.dover on 09.03.22 at 5:00 pm

Thank you. Not sectors all my cup tea right this month, but excellent information for safety.

#10 DON on 09.03.22 at 5:05 pm

You are the best of the best Garth. Thank you for what you do and put up with. Enjoy your weekend!

#11 chalkie on 09.03.22 at 5:28 pm

Headlines: I love the markets and understand them for P&L balances as well as the next person, but to understand what CNN has published is bewildering at best.
Buffett personally lost about $23 billion in the financial crisis of 2008, and his company, Berkshire Hathaway, lost its revered AAA rating. 23 So how can Buffett tell us to never lose money? He’s referring to the mindset of a sensible investor. Don’t be frivolous. The company’s stock has held up better than the rest of the market in 2022. The super pricy class A shares, which trade for around $445,000 apiece because they don’t split, are down about 2%. So are the shares of the class B stock, which cost a little less than $300 each and are in the S&P 500. Showing a 44 billion loss on paper in the second quarter, but the profits show a 9 billion gain so far in 2022, confused and scratching my head to understand the market reports. Money works in mysterious ways, I guess, here we are worrying about a few hundred dollars to Buffets standards. Staying invested and average buying has always been the best strategy.

#12 Almost There on 09.03.22 at 5:39 pm

As one of those that Garth has helped, I can confirm, those goals and the peace of mind a balanced portfolio gives me with every market blip.

#13 Samish on 09.03.22 at 6:01 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine nut)

#14 Earlybird on 09.03.22 at 6:04 pm

Thank you for the summary and the time you and your team take to put out solid information and opinion.
Started reading this blog a decade ago and use this as our template adjusted for our life and risk tolerance.
We have a future to look forward to now.

#15 Stuck in NB on 09.03.22 at 6:10 pm

Thank you Garth!
One question though: wife and I both have DB pensions (flame suit on). Does it impact the recommended weightings? In my understanding, the DB plan sort of fulfills the role of “safe stuff” in the overall scheme, so perhaps the personal TFSA/RRSP could have higher % allocated to equities.

#16 Tony on 09.03.22 at 6:28 pm

The only aggressive rate-hike I’ve seen has been in Russia and only in Russia.

#17 Sail Away on 09.03.22 at 6:45 pm

Hmmm… NASA/Boeing Artemis collaboration scrubbed for second? third? time…

It looks like one fine platter of incompetence that Elon will have to rescue. Again. Go SpaceX.

#18 Adam on 09.03.22 at 6:50 pm

A document which I find particularly fascinating is the “Global Wealth Report 2021” by credit-suisse. If you type it into Google, you can find the PDF.

Among many interesting things in this document, it lists the amount of money one needs to be in the top 1% globally for wealth. That figure, for 2021, is $1,055,337 USD. And to be in the top 10%, you need only have $129,624 USD. Finally, to be in the top 50%, one would require a mere $7,552 USD to their name. This is your entire net worth, e.g., if you sold everything, how much cash you would have.

So… if you have $1.05 million in assets, congrats, you are the 1%’er globally. If 100 people were in a room, you would be the richest of them all. The reason why I bring this up is because at this point (at least in my opinion), wealth preservation begins to become important. The goal, at least in my mind, should be to maintain your position as the top 1% for the rest of your life. The top 1% will never starve. Will never go without medicine. Unfortunately many people every year screw this up… they try to increase their wealth, get greedy, lose it all on gamestop or crypto or speculating on houses.

I will never forget how lucky we are in Canada. Almost all Canadians are in the top 50% of global wealth, and the large majority are probably in the top 10% too. It’s hard to imagine that half the world has less than $8,000 USD to their name. That won’t even buy you a beat up 10 year old Toyota Corolla anymore.

Bottom line, if you ever get to the elusive 1% top global wealth mark (or, beyond it) be happy with what you have. Invest in some real estate, some stocks, some bonds, and then live your life and enjoy it. Don’t get greedy. After all, you are better off than 99% of the world. You won the jackpot of life.

#19 Steven Rowlandson on 09.03.22 at 6:50 pm

In the light of the Taylor rule would it be reasonable to say that Central banks and governments are deliberately not using it? I suspect they are not as the implied expense for the real estate market and governments would be ruinous. As a former revenue minister what are your thoughts Garth?

#20 Wrk.dover on 09.03.22 at 6:58 pm

#135 Gravy Train on 09.03.22 at 2:01 pm

Hey, Nonplused. I just got my two-month power bill yesterday for my all-electric house, and I’m required to pay $22.74, but I have a surplus carryover of 1,196 kWh to be applied to the next billing period.
______________________________

Here in NS, they even the slate on the anniversary of hook-up. We had enough left owing to us to end the $22. bi monthly service charge for this third year.

#21 The General on 09.03.22 at 7:10 pm

DELETED

#22 Tony on 09.03.22 at 7:17 pm

I can’t rebalance one of my pensions because it pays a fixed amount that never changes every year for life at age 70. It’s sitting in a fifty year strip bond from 1982. The other one a defined benefit plan is in a LIRA I can rebalance. Both were from the same job.

#23 Mi Mapa Incluye la Esequiba on 09.03.22 at 7:21 pm

@ # 6

Looks like you seized some oil reserves from Venezuela? Guyana did not consult with Venezuela before applying for the extension of her marine borders under the Economic zone UN treaty

#24 The General on 09.03.22 at 7:32 pm

DELETED (Irrelevant)

#25 Shawn on 09.03.22 at 7:41 pm

Buffett’s Don’t lose Money Rule

#11 chalkie on 09.03.22 at 5:28 pm

Headlines: I love the markets and understand them for P&L balances as well as the next person, but to understand what CNN has published is bewildering at best.

Buffett personally lost about $23 billion in the financial crisis of 2008, and his company, Berkshire Hathaway, lost its revered AAA rating. 23 So how can Buffett tell us to never lose money?

**********************************
That’s a great question and I have an answer.

Famously Buffett at some point said: Rule No. 1 is “Don’t lose money.” and Rule No. 2 is “Don’t forget rule No. 1.”

Now I have read a ton of what Buffett has written and said and I have listened to hours of his Q&A each year and I attended his annual meeting in Omaha 2003.

If you follow what he has said, he clearly does not mean never buy a stock that might go down temporarily.

I’m pretty sure that what he meant is never buy a stock or other investment that has any real chance of losing you money if you hold it for a very long time.

He has repeatedly said that when he buys a position in a company he is glad if it goes down as he can then get more at a cheaper price. This happened with Apple where he went on to make over $100 billion for Berkshire on about a $30 billion investment and bought those shares when he was about 87. He recently “lost” a bundle on Apple in Q2 this year. I doubt that he is concerned by that at all. Berkshire will own Apple for a long time yet.

Buffett actually made a TON of money through his wise decisions in 2008 such as investing a huge amount in very high yielding and convertible preferred shares of Bank of America and I believe Goldman Sachs. These were special deals he made as Berkshire was just about the only huge investor with tons of cash at the ugliest part of the financial crisis.

Buffett has done very well since 2008.

In late 2008 he wrote an editorial in the New York Times that had title (He did not write the headline) “Buy America, I am”. He was a few months early as the market bottomed on March 9, 2009. But it was profoundly wise advise.

My Rule No. 1 is:

Always Assume Buffett is correct. (He’s not always but it is the way to bet).

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.22 at 7:53 pm

@#17 Sail Away
“It looks like one fine platter of incompetence that Elon will have to rescue. Again. Go SpaceX.”

+++

Yep.
Painful.
Artemis.
Billions over budget and years behind schedule.
Stuck on planet earth.
NASA vs SpaceX.
No comparison.
If it wasn’t for Musk the US would still be paying Russia billions per year to send food and water to the International Space Station.
The private sector wins….again.

#27 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 09.03.22 at 7:55 pm

This is not your first portfoliodeo I see. It was balanced, had some zip and I could almost dance to it; I give it a 98.

#28 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.22 at 7:58 pm

@ 21 &24 General Mayhem

Spewing more pro Putin propaganda?
How much does the Putrid dictator pay you to be his lapdog?
I guess he’s stolen billions from the Russian people so he can afford it.
Hopefully you are being paid well.
What does selling your soul to the Devil cost these days?

#29 Don Guillermo on 09.03.22 at 7:59 pm

#146 Faron on 09.03.22 at 6:08 pm
#145 Sail Away on 09.03.22 at 3:23 pm

As far as I know Google isn’t in the business of writing malware. The link goes to your own computer. Biz Pac Review is more harmful.

But, I look forward to seeing how you inflate this into a Tucker Carlson style controversy.

*********
Why stop there when it could be elevated up to the swearing at Freeland stratosphere?

#30 Flop… on 09.03.22 at 8:04 pm

If you google Retired Boomer WI, Garth’s tribute post from Boxing Day 2016, comes in at number 8, six years on this coming Monday since his passing.

Today is the day I give thanks to a guy that tried to pass down some of his experiences regarding investing, and life in general.

With the recent passing of my own father, the man who originally tried to educate me about the value of money and investing, Boom knew of the strained relationship and tried to fill a void, this year is extra poignant.

Some people are self taught at this stuff, some guys like me need a little extra nudge in the right direction, which is why I, and thousands of other people are glad to still have an Uncle Garth in their lives, banging out posts like the one today.

Thank You, Sir.

Anyway, each year I like to put up one of Roy’s posts to keep his words and thoughts alive, warts and all.

I remembered he used to refer to dying as “hitting room temperature” , so I typed that in, and this post from 2015 came up.

Our friendship was fleeting, but meaningful to myself, at least.

We swapped information on here, while we tried to figure out what to do with certain situations in the real world, there was no urgency in the exchanges, because we thought we had years to nurture the friendship.

Different families, different dynamics, roles reversed,roles inverted, meaningful posts wrapped in a juvenile wrapper, we gave each other a chance for a do-over…

M48BC

————————————————————-

“#15 Retired Boomer – WI on 08.31.15 at 7:01 pm

I am NOT the guy you want to ask about altruistic enterprises.
A kid whose parents put him on the market for adoption at 6 months… thank goodness there was a decent childless couple (one of whom was a year ‘too old’ to adopt, but got the rules waived)…how that was done I can only guess, ‘cash’ comes to mind… Anyway that was then, this is now.
I grew up, got $10 grand was my ‘inheritance.’ Made it work, along with a good work ethic.
Now nearly 64 married to wife #1. Kid 40 basically a parasite. Is he ‘worthy’ of inheritance? I’m thinning not so much, maybe the equivalent of that 1975 $10 grand I got.
We ALL have to make it on our own, with our own smarts, and the consequences of our parents decisions, as wells our own. Sorry, but history DOES impact you -learn it.
As for what’s left (if anything) well, the kid will get something worthy of his effort. Little effort – little reward.
There are LOTS of other places, from the kids who didn’t have a choice, to the dogs, and cats in the same boat. I just will not leave it to a government likely to piss it away, like the tax dollars year after year. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, they say, but it IS a dam good CLUE!!
That’s why I have a will, and a trust, healthcare power of attorney, and a wife I can trust should I hit room temperature first.
How you leave, what you leave, and to whom is entirely your business.
Just please, don’t leave your loved ones a mess.”

#31 Don Guillermo on 09.03.22 at 8:06 pm

#23 Mi Mapa Incluye la Esequiba on 09.03.22 at 7:21 pm
@ # 6

Looks like you seized some oil reserves from Venezuela? Guyana did not consult with Venezuela before applying for the extension of her marine borders under the Economic zone UN treaty

********
Maybe they found themselves some horizontal drilling technology. Worked well for Kuwait.

#32 Parksville Prankster on 09.03.22 at 8:37 pm

It still seems relevant that residential real estate has no capital gains on the sale, and remains the cornerstone of the vast majority of Canadian’s ‘investment’ strategy.

Unfortunately, many, many folks will die still living in their primary residence, and not realize the gain.

The heirs however are a different story; they may benefit from this tax loophole if ma and pa didn’t reverse mortgage it all into vapor.

#33 Danger Dan on 09.03.22 at 8:45 pm

Hmm OK, I’m pretty close to those weightings, sans bonds.

Garth, how do you feel about covered call ETFs? I like the income and stability, but they seem almost too good to be true. What’s the catch?

#34 5daystilNFL on 09.03.22 at 9:12 pm

#15 Retired Boomer:

You want life advice from a man with a, self-described, 40 year old parasite for a kid?!

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.22 at 9:34 pm

@#34 5days

Considering that “Retired Boomer” passed away 5 years ago the argument is moot.

I have plenty of friends with kidult “lumps in the basement” that they never expected would be their “forever parasite”….

Have any kids?

#36 mike from mtl on 09.03.22 at 9:35 pm

Why make your life so complicated, this reads like a RRSP mutual fund slinger of the 90s.

Bonds suck, REITs are whacked, Ca energy is fleeting, EU is in deep trouble and EU/GBP are at multi decade lows, Intl + EM are in total collapse. SP500 is the only thing standing as usual.

Buy anything now I suppose as eventually should turn around eventually.

That said this year was a total waste of time.

#37 Shawn on 09.03.22 at 9:45 pm

Corporate Tax Leakage

Tim Hortons as a franchise company is clearly extremely profitable. But it pays very little taxes in Canada.

Why? Because it is owned by an American / Brazilian company called Restaurant Brands which has a TON of debt on its balance sheet which transfers much income to U.S. and probably Brazilian bond holders. It is officially a Canadian registered company but only to save income taxes. On top of loading up on debt the company uses dubious transfer payment schemes to transfer most of the remaining profit to low tax foreign locations. They even list their tax strategies as a risk since they know they are aggressive and dubious.

And no one cares. There is no government official to my knowledge that has any interest in preventing this sort of thing.

Wonder why personal income tax rate are so high? This is part of the reason. Yet most people cheer corporations paying lower taxes.

#38 baloney Sandwitch on 09.03.22 at 9:47 pm

I get what you are saying Garth. B&D with ETFs is the way to go. But I can’t help myself. I am addicted to the market. It is like heroin. I crave thrill and fright, like a teenager on a roller coaster. sigh – I need another hobby, I am getting too old for this.

#39 JacqueShellacque on 09.03.22 at 9:55 pm

Does the B&D still work if the money supply decreases, or if people figure out the age of cheap money is over? “8% a year” is the group earning, what the market as a whole makes. An individual won’t make that.

As stated, the 10~year average return for the portfolio mentioned is almost 8%. Actually, 7.8%. No guarantee of what’s to come, but nonetheless salient. – Garth

#40 Shawn on 09.03.22 at 10:05 pm

#38 baloney Sandwitch on 09.03.22 at 9:47 pm
I get what you are saying Garth. B&D with ETFs is the way to go. But I can’t help myself. I am addicted to the market. It is like heroin. I crave thrill and fright, like a teenager on a roller coaster. sigh – I need another hobby, I am getting too old for this.

****************************
Exactly, we all don’t live to drive minivans and such.

Some of us need to drive Teslas and own Tesla shares and some boring stuff too but not VBAL or GICs.

#41 S.O on 09.03.22 at 10:06 pm

Russian is wining the war, Ukraine is loosing about five hundred to a thousand soldiers a day and foreign buyers are rushing to buy Canadian real estate before Januaries ban on foreigners

#42 Faron on 09.03.22 at 10:08 pm

#29 Don Guillermo on 09.03.22 at 7:59 pm
#146 Faron on 09.03.22 at 6:08 pm
#145 Sail Away on 09.03.22 at 3:23 pm

Why stop there when it could be elevated up to the swearing at Freeland stratosphere?

Hey, whatever the definition of breathless fearmongering is that works for you. The Tucker Carlson example would be intoning that by even mentioning homosexuality in schools there is indoctrination that will ruin America forever and all time. Oh, and that whole replacement theory thing he’s big on that has people afraid enough to shoot up crowds.

#43 Terry on 09.03.22 at 10:08 pm

Unrelated but NASA scrubs it’s second attempt to launch it’s Artimis rocket……….the real reason for the failure is DIVERSITY! When you don’t put COMPETENCE first when hiring people you continue to end up with failure after failure.

Go Trump for 2024!

#44 Shawn on 09.03.22 at 10:12 pm

Market Returns versus individual returns

#39 JacqueShellacque on 09.03.22 at 9:55 pm

Does the B&D still work if the money supply decreases, or if people figure out the age of cheap money is over? “8% a year” is the group earning, what the market as a whole makes. An individual won’t make that.

******************
For stock pickers, half will beat the index and half will trail (ignoring transaction costs) and before income tax in all cases.

If there is such a thing as a universal B and D index (VBAL is an attempt at this) then everyone owning it makes precisely what the market gives (ignoring transaction costs) Why do you say an individual will not earn the group (Index) earning if it is 8%?

Money supply could change what the overall B&D index earns (and it could have a fairly big negative year of course if interest rates soar) but every B&D investor who follows the index will earn that index (excluding fees).

#45 Faron on 09.03.22 at 10:25 pm

#26 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.22 at 7:53 pm

@#17 Sail Away

Billions over budget and years behind schedule.

Hate to burst your bubble, but you guys know that SpaceX is a monstrous money pit that has sucked in US gov’t and private equity dollars for utter incineration, right? There would be no Elon without his companies suckling at the teat of the US taxpayer.

#46 Shawn on 09.03.22 at 10:29 pm

Money Supply
#39 JacqueShellacque on 09.03.22 at 9:55 pm

Does the B&D still work if the money supply decreases,

********************************
The only way the money supply (basically deposits plus cash in circulation) is going to decrease is if there is net repayment on loans. If loans paid off exceed new loans then the money supply will decrease. (Bank loans and deposits will decrease)

Yeah, not likely.

#47 The General on 09.03.22 at 10:58 pm

#28- C.E.F. : Wow, are you off you meds today? Wowsers, LoL. Take a walk, and think about what you wrote, bud.

#48 The General on 09.03.22 at 11:04 pm

#28-c.e.f. : By the way, isn’t the selling the soul thingy a little over the top? Unless you’re speaking from your own life experience? Ha!

#49 Jorpint on 09.03.22 at 11:09 pm

The problem with the B&D returns cited is that they were achieved in the biggest bull market in history in low interest rate environment. Viewed from such a perspective 7.8% return is not that great. Going forward with high inflation, high interest rates, wars, disease, and locusts, this strategy is unlikely to work.

Balanced and diversified portfolios have a similar long-term record over the past 70 years. But feel free to make things up. It’s entertaining. – Garth

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.22 at 11:22 pm

@ General Mayhem

You’re the Putin fan, not me.
There’s a special place in Hell for Vlad the Putrid.
Just don’t stand too close to your hero when he goes up in flames.
You might get burned.

But “self medicating” isn’t a bad idea.
Time for some 12 year old single malt Macallan.
Cheers!

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.22 at 11:46 pm

@#45 Faron
“Hate to burst your bubble, but you guys know that SpaceX is a monstrous money pit ….

++++
And NASA isnt?
Artemis is estimated to cost $93,000,000,000.00 ( billion).
Artemis is a moon shot 50 years after man last went to the moon.
NASA is relying on the same design as 50 years ago with modern computers.

It is years behind schedule and billions over budget.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiLmNjamfr5AhX8IzQIHUzACN8QFnoECBEQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.space.com%2Fartemis-1-space-launch-system-rocket-cost&usg=AOvVaw3IEsF493EmM2dTW57hldPo

As SpaceX and Starship are sitting on the launchpad waiting for this NASA elephant ( white elephant may be construed as racist) to get off the ground and literally…..out of their way.
NASA also holds the key to allowing Starship to get the “green light” to launch.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi1taWEnPr5AhX0AjQIHbOJC-4QFnoECAcQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Fnasa-delay-spacex-launch-starship-rocket-elon-musk-2022-6&usg=AOvVaw0cdL_4zf-QI2u91m6MrXU8

No conflict of interest there.
Don’t want Elons Starship to take off and auto land before the NASA Artemis rocket finally takes off ….3 years behind schedule…..and burns up on reentry.

#52 mark on 09.03.22 at 11:46 pm

#49
World’s never been short of a crisis. Today’s not the beginning of the end, it’s just today.

#53 Shawn on 09.03.22 at 11:55 pm

Faron about Elon

Seek help man

#54 Faron on 09.04.22 at 1:26 am

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.22 at 11:46 pm

So, you are saying that it’s okay for SpaceX to waste money because NASA has wasted money? Perfect logic there. It always helps to add a profit sucking leech to govt processes. Hey, maybe a third entity would make everything even more efficient? It would certainly make someone rich whereas NASA does far less of that.

Also, please feel free to present your rocket science credentials. Maybe take a pic with a dog or cat in the background and have Garth publish it. Use crayon to be extra convincing. Otherwise, keep your drooling enthusiasm to a dull roar.

Look up thunderfoot’s YouTube channel for all sorts of myth busting from a real physicist. Elon is a charlatan. Seems he caught you and I always thought you had good judgemt.

#55 Faron on 09.04.22 at 1:56 am

On a lighter note, went for a second bioluminescence swim of the week tonight. No need for psychedelics when the water is that full of glowing microorganisms radiating around you as you swim. Anyone living near the BC coast may want to take advantage of the high concentrations right now and head to the shore at night where there is little artificial light. There’s warm water in Finlayson Arm.

#56 Dr V on 09.04.22 at 1:57 am

Off topic for those interested in upper island RE

http://www.vireb.com/index.php?page=20

Board totals ave sale price in Aug was $816k compared to $913k in March of this year – down 10.6%. Number of sales year over year well down.

B&D. Got it. Thanks. They also corrected my CPP to reflect last years max contribution. Wife’s increased too, but not as much.

#57 Frank on 09.04.22 at 7:32 am

Would you not have better than a o7.8 pct return if you
Maintained a 90/10 split …SP 500 ETF / Safe Stuff ; providing that the safe stuff plus whatever government piges would be enough to carry you thru a 2 year market drought ??

#58 Sail Away on 09.04.22 at 7:56 am

#51 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.22 at 11:46 pm

As SpaceX and Starship are sitting on the launchpad waiting for this NASA elephant ( white elephant may be construed as racist) to get off the ground and literally…..out of their way.

———

Artemisn’t

Elon’s actually giving NASA tips to get off the ground… all while FAA wraps Starship with red tape.

Not to worry, though: winners win. It’s sorta their thing.

#59 Bezengy on 09.04.22 at 8:06 am

#38 baloney Sandwitch on 09.03.22 at 9:47 pm
I get what you are saying Garth. B&D with ETFs is the way to go. But I can’t help myself. I am addicted to the market. It is like heroin. I crave thrill and fright, like a teenager on a roller coaster. sigh – I need another hobby, I am getting too old for this.
———–
haha……I swear one more good pass and I’m out too.

#60 Bezengy on 09.04.22 at 8:08 am

#37 Shawn on 09.03.22 at 9:45 pm
Corporate Tax Leakage

————–
Question for the blog dogs about the $913k lifetime capital gains exemption. How much does the LCGE tax exemption cost the CDN government? Where can I get info on how many claim it? I have read bloggers discuss how this can be manipulated so that family members can also avoid paying tax if the company is structured properly. Does anyone think this still provides an incentive to start your own business? I’m anti-tax, but this exemption seems like a absolute overkill. Maybe reduce it to $50k or something more realistic.

#61 Prince Polo on 09.04.22 at 8:30 am

Finally, be tax-smart. Capital gains come with a huge discount, so assets generating them should always be in a non-registered account. Ditto with tax-efficient dividend income. Interest is 100% taxed, so tuck bonds inside an RRSP or RRIF. Put the growthiest of equity-based assets in the TFSA. Never a GIC there.

In an ideal world, one could shield all investment income. However, for those unlucky bastards who have overflowing TFSA/RRSP, they could be kept awake at night, fretting over ideal tax-efficiency positioning.

One thing I could never square away was the concept of tax-shielding the bond portion’s income, which lately, isn’t held for income purposes to begin with, as opposed to tax-shielding capital gains.

As an illustrative example, if I look at XEF etf (since inception in April 2013), $10K has grown to $17.6K as of Sep 1, 2022 (Source: https://www.blackrock.com/ca/investors/en/products/251421/ishares-msci-eafe-imi-index-etf#/). Therefore, taxes on half the gain = marginal tax rate on $3.8K.

$10K in XSB etf (since April 2013), has grown to $11.1K (source: https://www.blackrock.com/ca/investors/en/products/239491/ishares-canadian-short-term-bond-index-etf). Assuming the gain was entirely composed of interest payments as worst case, I would pay marginal tax rate on $1.1K.

If I slotted in SPY (instead of XEF), the taxes paid would be even higher. However, all bets are off if we get to much higher bond interest payments. What am I missing in the above scenario?

*preparing to be eviscerated & disemboweled in the steerage section*

#62 cto on 09.04.22 at 8:49 am

Question to Garth and/or all the dogs…
Rate hikes. Many news articles and people are calling for a pause in BoC hikes after september, however you look at news on the FED and almost every single FED official say hikes will continue into 2023???

Would pausing cause the Can $ to go down? and thus inflation UP here? Wouldn’t they have to follow the Fed in lock step?

How could BoC pause and not re-spark inflation here?
Looking for feedback on this thanks…

The CB has said nothing about a pause and with inflation elevated, why would the tightening cycle end? Invest on facts, not media speculation. – Garth

#63 KNOW IT ALL on 09.04.22 at 9:12 am

When the music stopped……

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/amazon-closes-abandons-plans-for-dozens-of-us-warehouses

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.22 at 9:14 am

@#54 Faron
“So, you are saying that it’s okay for SpaceX to waste money because NASA has wasted money? ”

+++
Pound for pound Musk’s REUSABLE rockets are cheaper to launch , retrieve, refuel and send up again.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiNv5mXm_v5AhXLGDQIHfBLDSkQFnoECBoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Farstechnica.com%2Fscience%2F2022%2F02%2Fspacexs-falcon-9-rocket-has-set-a-record-for-most-consecutive-successes%2F&usg=AOvVaw0HzBUO4Gxkve9Ca1d_Lojt

Gee whiz a recyclable rocket. Who woulda thunk it.
As opposed to the 50 year old tech “launch once and toss it in the sad garbage heap that is our oceans” strategy of NASA.

Musk has launched 32 rockets into space THIS YEAR.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjmg4Hnmfv5AhXzFzQIHe8KD6gQFnoECAcQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theverge.com%2F2022%2F7%2F22%2F23273077%2Fspacex-falcon-9-launch-record-2022-32-high-cadence&usg=AOvVaw3KV1fba7EZrGtmYtLKGZQm

NASA struggles to launch one every few years.

As for drooling. I’m sure NASA (…or China… or Russia) would love to have the “Buck Rogers” SpaceX tech to land spent rockets back on the launch pad.
A cost effective and environmentally friendlier way to send people and material into space.

And since only rocket scientists seem to be allowed to comment on SpaceX and NASA
Please provide YOUR Rocket Science credentials/qualifications at the end of the next shrill rebuttal.
Fair is fair-on

#65 TurnerNation on 09.04.22 at 9:21 am

Did ‘Emma Zaun’ negotiate long weekends off for the ‘New Guys’/guest bloggers?

— Tuesday. Buy the dip or dip the buyers?
The Bashers just want our cheap shares? Haha.
Still liking the oil services ETF here so far.

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=OIH&p=w&tas=0

—- China, the model our leaders seek to emulate.
Already our “Smart” thermostats/cars/phone are all remotes controlled devices. Big State/Big Tech owns it all. We are the virus/thing to be surpressed.

.Shenzhen districts locked down as China battles COVID outbreaks (reuters.com)

—–Ontariowe – government data set supposedly, people keep getting sicker howcome? Or are they playing with #s, With or OF Corvid? Keep asking questions.

https://i.redd.it/uqisck2jhtl91.png

#66 tbone on 09.04.22 at 9:23 am

When i commuted my pension after company was sold 10 years ago , i started my own pension by buying blue chip dividend paying stocks.
Now i live off the dividends and i own the principal .
And i dont have any concern if market is up or down.
Dividend income typically increases yearly.
Was a good rookie move for me.

#67 TurnerNation on 09.04.22 at 9:30 am

Here is a Video of the PM or at least the person who approximates his haircut (shades of Saddam’s body doubles) these days.

He says “We are not done with Corvid”
“”Everyone should get vaccinated and if 80%-90% are “up to date” before winter, then we should have less need for mandates and restrictions.””

—Yup, This is designed to be permanent in the Former First World Countries. To which end? Simple. Global control over our Travel/Movement, Feeding and Breeding. The Federal Digital ID And QR code still is to drop.
YOU WILL Read nothing else in your daily “news feed” but of Corvid and Climate as we enter soon Year 3.

https://twitter.com/zoominfire1/status/1566123329446187008

#68 The Addict on 09.04.22 at 10:18 am

#42 Faron on 09.03.22 at 10:08 pm
#29 Don Guillermo on 09.03.22 at 7:59 pm
#146 Faron on 09.03.22 at 6:08 pm
#145 Sail Away on 09.03.22 at 3:23 pm

Why stop there when it could be elevated up to the swearing at Freeland stratosphere?

Hey, whatever the definition of breathless fearmongering is that works for you. The Tucker Carlson example would be intoning that by even mentioning homosexuality in schools there is indoctrination that will ruin America forever and all time. Oh, and that whole replacement theory thing he’s big on that has people afraid enough to shoot up crowds.

===================

??

Whoa. Talk about zealot. Like a religious fanatic trying to turn every conversation to their own weird obsessions. From juvenile web links to replacement theory? Not far from pushing a shopping cart down Pandora now, Dr. A.

Stick to the scriptkiddy code-monkeying. Totally disrespectful to a blog host, but contributes less to the impression of mental illness than every time you open your yap.

#69 Dharma Bum on 09.04.22 at 10:24 am

#51 CEF

And NASA isn’t?
Artemis is estimated to cost $93,000,000,000.00 ( billion).
Artemis is a moon shot 50 years after man last went to the moon.
NASA is relying on the same design as 50 years ago with modern computers.

It is years behind schedule and billions over budget.
————————————————————————————————————

I can’t figure out why NASA is so incompetent.
Why can’t they figure out how to get that thing launched?
I mean, like, it’s NOT ROCKET SCIENCE man!

Wait…what?

#70 ogdoad on 09.04.22 at 10:32 am

My squeeze and I have a couple goals, too….nothing to do with investments, though…

Cue your imagination.

Og

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.22 at 10:55 am

@#63 TurnerNation
“Here is a Video of the PM or at least the person who approximates his haircut….”

++++

I’m thinkin’ he should grow a mustache, go with a Mullet cut and compete in Australia’s annual mullet competition….in Dubbo next year.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwihuLG8sfv5AhWMIzQIHXWbCE8QFnoECDsQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kixcountry.com.au%2Fhottest-country-news%2F48187-more-business-in-front-party-in-the-back-as-mulletfest-goes-on-tour&usg=AOvVaw0s13zqXQ-9E7sT21Lw0pNn

#72 Gr on 09.04.22 at 11:11 am

Thanks for the overview of what a B&D is and has done and should keep doing. You and your team are the best at helping as many as will listen.

#73 Sail Away on 09.04.22 at 11:12 am

#70 ogdoad on 09.04.22 at 10:32 am

My squeeze and I have a couple goals, too….nothing to do with investments, though…

Cue your imagination.

Og

——–

Kitchen reno? Matching flatware? Window blinds? Talking it out? Cute shoes? Hypoallergenic duvets? Family drama? Relative merits of belts vs. suspenders? Travel plans?

I’m trying here, man.

#74 Dr V on 09.04.22 at 11:20 am

“Finally, be tax-smart. Capital gains come with a huge discount, so assets generating them should always be in a non-registered account……. Put the growthiest of equity-based assets in the TFSA.”
——————————————————-

These two strategies contradict each other.

I have also seen a situation where placing dividend
holdings in a TFSA can be advantageous. The bad thing about divvies is the “gross-up” which effectively moves you to a higher marginal rate at a lower income level.
This could effect OAS clawback.

Best thing about TFSA is it counts for nothing, and simplifies everything.

#75 zee on 09.04.22 at 11:27 am

I know preferred shares are for income but why are they not performing better in terms of share price when this is the environment that it should with rising interest rates.

#76 Flop… on 09.04.22 at 11:50 am

Saw a couple of guys get into it recently on healthcare around the world.

From memory, one guy was trying to point out that there’s but way of doing things in places like Asia, I think another guy was disrespectful so the original guy didn’t follow through with where these types of places are.

Clear as mud, right.

When reading the exchange, I remembered I used to watch Morgan Spurlock episodes on CNN, besides Anthony Bourdain, this was about all I used to watch on there.

I remember one episode where he travelled to Bangkok, and I was amazed at how much he could get done in a relatively short amount of time.

Full list approximately 15 minutes, 45 seconds into this 39 minute video.

“Morgan takes his shoulder injury from New York City to Bumrungrad Hospital in Bangkok, Thailand as he looks for a better alternative to America’s medical care system.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owgpDuKxI9A

In trying to find this episode to try and show some people what’s out there, I didn’t realize that this guy had done a Super Size Me sequel, I wondered why he wasn’t on T.V anymore, and then read he had been a bit of a naughty boy.

They found forgiveness for Jeffrey Toobin, but not a guy that was banging out original content, go figure.

Anyway, as they say, or if they don’t, they should.

Wealth without health doesn’t add up to much…

M48BC

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.22 at 12:01 pm

#54 Faron
Look up thunderfoot’s YouTube channel for all sorts of myth busting from a real physicist. Elon is a charlatan. Seems he caught you FURZ ,and I always thought you had good judgement
————————————————-
Good Judgement.?
Thanks for the morning chuckle, Faron.

#78 Shawn on 09.04.22 at 12:03 pm

Small Business Income Tax Leakage

#60 Bezengy on 09.04.22 at 8:08 am responded to me
#37 Shawn on 09.03.22 at 9:45 pm
Corporate Tax Leakage

————–
Question for the blog dogs about the $913k lifetime capital gains exemption. How much does the LCGE tax exemption cost the CDN government? Where can I get info on how many claim it? I have read bloggers discuss how this can be manipulated so that family members can also avoid paying tax if the company is structured properly. Does anyone think this still provides an incentive to start your own business? I’m anti-tax, but this exemption seems like a absolute overkill. Maybe reduce it to $50k or something more realistic.

***************************************
Good questions. The Lifetime Capital Gains Tax Exemption of shares of operating small businesses would appear to me more of a reward than an incentive.

In most cases a small business is sold years and decades after it was started and the investments made. It’s doubtful that people start a small business becasue of this tax treatment when they ultimately sell.

When there are shares of an operating corporation and they are passed down the number of owners qualifying for the exemption can multiply. I believe the same multiplication of eligible owners occurs is shares are sold to multiple children (or anyone else) during the life of the founder(s).

Note that if you hold investments (like ETFs and stocks) in an operating corporation, you may disqualify the corporation from this exemption. Over 50% of the assets at market value have to be non-investment type assets two years prior to sale and upon sale those investments need to be largely removed prior to the sale so that operating assets are over 90% to my understanding. But this is a complex area.

All in all a nice gift for business owners and tax planners.

#79 Barry on 09.04.22 at 12:38 pm

The portfolio throws off gains and losses … when realized. The rising income from tax efficient dividend growth stocks is what keeps this 70 year old chugging along. This year up $4700 and still 2 more to go – Emera and Fortis.

News flash: ETFs pay dividends with less volatility. You should be old enough to grasp that. – Garth

#80 The General on 09.04.22 at 12:59 pm

#50- Mr. Fartz: I’m less a fan of Putin, than I am totally disgusted with our own infantile, corrupt, virtue signaling, lying bullies of the nanny state politicians in the western world. Who treat us commoners as if we are little children, and that they know what’s best for us. 70,000 Czech protesters think so. Europe is toast, because their politicians chose this path, no one else. Some Havana Club Anejo Reserva, on the rocks for me. Cheers!

#81 The General on 09.04.22 at 2:19 pm

DELETED

#82 Oh hi on 09.04.22 at 2:24 pm

Wow a lot of space experts :o
I’m no expert but no one’s aware that NASA is partly an avenue for pork barrel congress spending/job creating (SLS) but also Nasa is partly doing unprofitable but amazing cutting edge research/accomplishments (JWST)
SpaceX is good at efficiently making money for sure but they are very different from NASA

#83 Samish on 09.04.22 at 2:43 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine nutcase)

#84 WTF on 09.04.22 at 2:45 pm

Lying liars since 1989.”Can’t drop 25% because the market doesn’t work like that”

https://twitter.com/RE_MarketWatch/status/1566446938605625345/photo/1

#85 Caffeine Monkey on 09.04.22 at 2:47 pm

Is it better to rebalance by adding to segments of your portfolio that are underweight? This is what I’ve done, with the idea that this minimizes any transaction fees.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.22 at 2:57 pm

@ 80 General Mayhem.

I am also disgusted with our current “leadership”…..
But to compare what Putin is doing in Ukraine to anything the Wokesters have done is bizarre.
Enjoy the communist Rum.

@#82 Ojai
“Nasa is partly doing unprofitable but amazing cutting edge research/accomplishments (JWST)
SpaceX is good at efficiently making money for sure but they are very different from NASA”

+++
True enough.
NASA should stick to “cutting edge research” and leave the nitty gritty business of actually building “stuff” ie rocketships…to the people that have proven they can do it successfully……for a lot less money than fat cat bureaucrats.

#87 The General on 09.04.22 at 3:03 pm

#81- DELETED: It was off topic, but a valid question. I have American roots too, Garth. Mabey Canada needs a wall.

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.22 at 4:43 pm

As a well needed drizzle of rain mists down in the Lower Brain Land….

I noticed this sobering article in Reuters.

https://graphics.reuters.com/EUROPE-WEATHER/DROUGHT/jnvwenznyvw/

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.22 at 5:10 pm

I didnt realize Bed Bath and Beyond employed Russian Oligarchs…..

https://www.reuters.com/business/bed-bath-beyond-cfo-plunges-death-new-yorks-jenga-tower-reports-2022-09-04/

#90 The General on 09.04.22 at 5:11 pm

#86- Mr. Fartz: Our hands are no less bloody, than the Russians’ hands. Mabey stop throwing stones, when you live in a glass house. As you know, the Cubans make a superior rum. I’m not prejudiced against a good product, even though it’s Cuban. Cheers!

#91 Penny Henny on 09.04.22 at 5:18 pm

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.22 at 4:30 pm
Good old “Balanced and Diversified”
That train keeps chugging down the track.

@#132 NoName
“Server tip hairstyle, is beating this poor hardworking dude by mile…”

+++
What can I say.
Men are pigs….tails.

///////////////

Who looks at their hair? ;)

#92 Bed, Bath and so long! on 09.04.22 at 5:23 pm

DELETED (insane)

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.22 at 5:57 pm

@#90 General Mayhem
“As you know, the Cubans make a superior rum.”

+++
Yes they do.
I had some Havana Club on the rocks last night.
The Flora de Cana was all cleared out at the local BC Liquor store.

I wonder if it’s all the political prisoners slave labour in Communist Cuba that makes it so affordable to us fat, capitalist pigs?

#94 the Jaguar on 09.04.22 at 6:03 pm

31 degrees in Cowtown. Not just a heat warning, but a ‘Special Air Quality Statement’ as well due to the the BC Wildfires. They even have a ‘BC Wildfire Dashboard’, similar to the Covid Dashboard. Just one damn calamity after another everywhere one looks. Mercy.

Thursday, Sept.8th approaches. Yes, I know…. BOC rate is Wednesday Sept.7th, and the Harvest Moon isn’t until Saturday Sept. 10th. But still. I have a ‘feeling’ about Thursday. Can’t seem to shake it.

Maybe a coup d’etat , this time by the VSU, especially after Kherson, etc. . Seems like someone is about to get thrown under the bus. Going into ‘Exile’ has always been a popular gambit. Guess we’ll see. Enough on that front less anybody’s cage gets rattled beyond their ability to cope with such thoughts.

The Labour Day weekend is almost in the history books. Movers and shakers returning from Lake Rosseau, Lake Joseph and the like. Time to blow the whistle and order everybody out of the pool. Pay attention all you coddled, pajama wearing, work/life balance converts. Put down those earbuds and listen carefully for the sound of distant drums beating. Drums of ancient warriors. They are saying ‘Get your lazy ass back to the office on our terms or suffer the consequences”! Remember there is no dress rehearsal for life.

#95 Samish on 09.04.22 at 6:17 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine whackadoodle)

#96 Penny Henny on 09.04.22 at 6:44 pm

#53 Shawn on 09.03.22 at 11:55 pm
Faron about Elon

Seek help man

////////////////

Call me a bad person if you want, don’t worry my feelings won’t be hurt.
But watching Faron spiral lower and lower is quite entertaining.
Intelligence does not make you smart or aware, Faron is proof.

#97 Steven Rowlandson on 09.04.22 at 6:55 pm

Garth is this the sort of asset you were talking about?
For me it is inside a TFSA.

https://www.td.com/ca/en/asset-management/funds/solutions/mutual-funds/FundCard/TD%20Comfort%20Balanced%20Growth%20Portfolio%20-%20I/?fundId=6322

No. – Garth

#98 Faron on 09.04.22 at 7:27 pm

#96 Penny Henny on 09.04.22 at 6:44 pm
#53 Shawn on 09.03.22 at 11:55 pm

Working my way to your level.

#99 Faron on 09.04.22 at 7:52 pm

#77 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.22 at 12:01 pm

Good Judgement.?
Thanks for the morning chuckle, Faron

Any time pal.

Elon humping is a surefire indicator of a proper dunce in engineers clothing. The gateway drug to anti vax and everything downhill from there.

#100 Faron on 09.04.22 at 8:00 pm

#68 The Addict on 09.04.22 at 10:18 am

It’s funny that you once suggested I wipe the spittle from my screen. Project-much?

Also, you sound dangerous and you are flaunting my personal details. Maybe more time putting leather conditioner on your old boots and less time trying to find out everything about Faron so you can weaponize it here? Believe it or not, I’m a human like you are and doing shit like reposting my words to one audience to a hostile audience actually hurts.

#101 My portfolio on 09.04.22 at 8:07 pm

“The fortunate among us have liquid wealth, but many struggle with where to put it in a volatile world.”

Long vol: 21%
Gold: 17%
Crypto: 2%
Managed Futures: 18%
Global equities: 24%
Intermediate treasuries: 18%

Add in some prudent leverage (~1.5%) via capital efficient ETFs.

Counter cyclical rebalancing where it makes sense.

Watch.

#102 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.22 at 8:11 pm

@#99 Faron
“Elon humping is a surefire indicator of a proper dunce…”

+++

“Seems he caught you and I always thought you had good judgemt.

++++

Glass houses and stones.

#103 Yukon Elvis on 09.04.22 at 8:11 pm

#94 the Jaguar on 09.04.22 at 6:03 pm

Maybe a coup d’etat , this time by the VSU, especially after Kherson, etc. . Seems like someone is about to get thrown under the bus. Going into ‘Exile’ has always been a popular gambit. Guess we’ll see. Enough on that front less anybody’s cage gets rattled beyond their ability to cope with such thoughts.
+++++++++++++
Where could Putin go for exile? Nobody wants him. Maybe he will just fall out a window or die of a quick sudden major illness.

#104 Emma Zaun - Greater Fool Unpaid Intern #007 on 09.04.22 at 8:14 pm

Garth, for anyone here who has not figured it out…

Yes. The Amazons have quietly quit again today, hence no new blog post has been put out. Comments are still being…um…sort of moderated…a little bit, let’s just say.

See you all at the Labour Day parade tomorrow, celebrating Canada’s most important public holiday!

(We’ll let you know if we’re taking the rest of the week off, depending on how our collective bargaining ultimatum is responded to.)

#105 Dave on 09.04.22 at 8:17 pm

When will we here about Mt. Elgin home?

#106 Outrage on 09.04.22 at 8:17 pm

# 67 Turner Nation
Obey or leave. All this P.M. has done has lowered our standard of living, sky high debt, taken our rights and freedoms away and brought up the crime rate. That’s what Canadians deserve for voting this clown in.

#107 Don Guillermo on 09.04.22 at 8:18 pm

#96 Penny Henny on 09.04.22 at 6:44 pm
#53 Shawn on 09.03.22 at 11:55 pm
Faron about Elon

Seek help man

////////////////

Call me a bad person if you want, don’t worry my feelings won’t be hurt.
But watching Faron spiral lower and lower is quite entertaining.
Intelligence does not make you smart or aware, Faron is proof.
$$$$$$
A professional student doesn’t necessarily mean intelligence. Spelling and vocabulary =1, life skills= 0.

#108 Musk on 09.04.22 at 8:27 pm

In the 1600’s Faron would have been on the side of those calling Galileo’s theories absurd.

Musk is not perfect but he is changing the world in dramatic ways.

Clearly he’s the best entrepreneur to ever exist.

You can’t do that without making mistakes now and again.

Imagine being someone with no accomplishments to speak of calling Musk a fraud etc.

Can only be understood if you realize pure emotion, perhaps political views and lack of reasoning are behind it.

And I can’t resist mentioning the cringeworthy attempts to suddenly sound like an investing expert.

Please just stop with the jargon you picked up on Twitter.

I worked in the Investment Banking field for 25 years. If anyone is a fraud it’s you pretending you know what you are talking about. Gamma this and blah blah blah. Oh please spare us.

#109 Tesla hater on 09.04.22 at 8:44 pm

When Tesla went public at $30 I refused to buy it because I knew that no one had started a successful new car company in decades, let alone a crazy electric car company.

Toyota and Daimler were going to destroy Tesla I said. So sure was I that I was tempted to short the stock as it rocketed higher.

So I hate Tesla because it proved me wrong like never before.

Still don’t know how he did it, but damn, begrudging respect.

#110 Garrick on 09.04.22 at 8:46 pm

Please God, cut the power to Faron’s computer.

#111 Observer on 09.04.22 at 8:53 pm

#107 Don Guillermo on 09.04.22 at 8:18 pm

A professional student doesn’t necessarily mean intelligence. Spelling and vocabulary =1, life skills= 0.

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Don’t be so hard on yourself Don. You must be good at something.

#112 Observer on 09.04.22 at 8:57 pm

#106 Outrage on 09.04.22 at 8:17 pm
PM has “taken our rights and freedoms away”.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Hogwash! With freedom comes responsibility. Don’t like it, go live in the bush.

#113 Cowtown Cowboy on 09.04.22 at 9:13 pm

Well as if you needed any proof that Toronto is home to the dumbest people on the planet, now they’re protesting the military presence at the CNE, cuz, you know, jets and tanks are loud and triggering..I wish I was joking.

#114 Pylot Project on 09.04.22 at 9:15 pm

To lighten the mood on this festive Labour Day weekend, I thought I would pass along a humorous article that mirrors some of the experiences I have had over the past few months, while I try to gain employment.

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/daily-shouts/if-you-want-this-job-we-must-interview-you-forever

#115 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.22 at 9:34 pm

Stop the presses!
Stop the presses!
We have an Independent candidate for Prime Minister.
Honest.
Hardworking.
Some political experience.
Not very talkative.
Willing to pitch in and help ( shovelling snow).

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjRvNPgwPz5AhU3IzQIHeoABXAQFnoECCEQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fglobalnews.ca%2Fnews%2F9106377%2Fgrand-forks-b-c-donkey-runs-for-mayor%2F&usg=AOvVaw1g5LNMRteHGzTkf_RjRdmA

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.22 at 10:11 pm

Talking about inflation.
Was at the PNE today.
I liked playing the horse race game where 1buck gave you a change to win a stuffed puppet from China, to impress your girl.
Now it’s 7 bucks a try.
Luckily, the girl is now my wife.

#117 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.22 at 10:20 pm

#109 Tesla hater on 09.04.22 at 8:44 pm
When Tesla went public at $30 I refused to buy it because I knew that no one had started a successful new car company in decades, let alone a crazy electric car company.

Toyota and Daimler were going to destroy Tesla I said. So sure was I that I was tempted to short the stock as it rocketed higher.

So I hate Tesla because it proved me wrong like never before.

Still don’t know how he did it, but damn, begrudging respect.
————————
Don’t beat yourself up.
History is full of stocks that went through the roof and then came crashing down.
Stay B&D.
And go for a walk.

#118 Sail Away on 09.04.22 at 10:34 pm

Alright, alright… I’m back. Foron can stop fighting with everyone else.

So aggressive, I tell ya. Anger management, bud.

#119 Faron on 09.04.22 at 11:15 pm

#108 Musk on 09.04.22 at 8:27 pm

An investing expert.

Muskovites be triggered this e’en.

Never claimed to be anything close and have always given sources for data and ideas when I introduce it and almost always paraphrase with caution. I am certainly new to all of this and I trot out terms hoping those who know better will engage and nudge.

But, by all means, please show that I’ve been wrong to associate the last ~week of high realized vol with the deeply short gamma dealer positioning that has resulted from monthly options expiry the week prior and downward moves in SPX. I’ve had great statistical discussions with squeezemetrics (the lemon) on Twitter and enjoyed engaging with Cem Karsan whose macro view has been and is spot on.

Regardless, I’m always open to hearing from experts which is why the only person I listen to here is Garth and occasionally Ryan L. There is no one here who has impressed me by showing they have a handle of things beyond repeating BNN/CNBC headlines and claiming that the “market moved because of XYZ thing”.

Proof is in the pudding. I put a positive 7% on my self managed port last week being long and short index and long and short VIX via ETNs at appropriate times. Happy to send you timing of trades.

PS, being a security guard on Bay Street doesn’t make you “in” investment banking. LOL. Just kidding.

Musk = Galileo = OMFG LOL. Was it 25 years because your managers got tired of those kinds of comparisons?

#120 Artemis, Sister of Apollo on 09.04.22 at 11:21 pm

One of the problems (and there were many) with the Apollo program, the rocketry used to put astronauts on the moon, was that its legacy was unusable. By this, what I mean is that there was not sufficient organization of the information used to design and build the Apollo system. This failure to properly keep and organize all the engineering and manufacturing data meant that it was virtually impossible to build another one after the program had been shut down.

My guess, as a retired engineer with at least some of my time spent in aerospace and defence contracting is that valuable lessons learned during the Apollo program had to be relearned during the Artemis program and perhaps at the worst possible time. This is what is known as learning the hard way. Another of my guesses is that our esteemed host of this empathetic blog could handily show that his best clients are those who, like the administrators of past NASA programs, have also learned the hard way.

#121 Don Guillermo on 09.04.22 at 11:33 pm

Very unusual for greaterfool to take a night off. It’s like a double header for the commenters. I’ll have to throw something out
….
The US open tonight was fun to watch. Great to see Nick go from bad boy to fan favorite over the past years. His skill level was always top shelf. Fitness not so much.
######
#111 Observer on 09.04.22 at 8:53 pm
#107 Don Guillermo on 09.04.22 at 8:18 pm

A professional student doesn’t necessarily mean intelligence. Spelling and vocabulary =1, life skills= 0.

^^^^^^^^^^^^
Don’t be so hard on yourself Don. You must be good at something.
“””””””””
Hahaha, too funny. Kinda like” I know you are but what am I “. Are you and Faron campus roommates?

And last but not least

#116 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.22 at 10:11 pm

Luckily, the girl is now my wife.

@@@@#
Lucky for you? What about about your poor wife? Just kidding amigo.

#122 Faron on 09.05.22 at 12:04 am

#107 Don Guillermo on 09.04.22 at 8:18 pm

life skills= 0.

I consider arguing with, tittering at and trolling conservatives a critical life skill.

#123 Inequity on 09.05.22 at 1:04 am

#118 Sail Away

Anger management can’t cure crazy.

#124 PeterfromCalgary on 09.05.22 at 1:26 am

If you own a barn or other uninhabited building and live on the prairies. Be careful when you check on it tomorrow. Two bad killers on the lose. If they were still in a car they would have caught them by now.

#125 Love_The_Cottage on 09.05.22 at 7:24 am

#106 Outrage on 09.04.22 at 8:17 pm
All this P.M. has done has … brought up the crime rate.
__________
What specific crime rate is up? Over what time frame? And what new laws and policies implemented by the Federal Liberal party have led directly to this increase in crime? Thanks, I look forward to your detailed analysis which led to this insight. Fascinating.

#126 Is anybody listening? on 09.05.22 at 9:10 am

I used to buy value stocks and hope that someone would also find them cheap. Now I track governments for unforced errors/incompetence and bet that the government’s inevitable solutions will only accelerate the crisis. I’m having an amazing run… Betting against govt is easy.

#127 Sail Away on 09.05.22 at 9:20 am

#124 PeterfromCalgary on 09.05.22 at 1:26 am

If you own a barn or other uninhabited building and live on the prairies. Be careful when you check on it tomorrow. Two bad killers on the lose. If they were still in a car they would have caught them by now.

———

Such an event is almost unheard of because most farmers have dogs. Nobody’s sneaking onto the property with a dog around. And cow tipping is bunk. Try sneaking up on a cow in the field sometime. Actually, make it a bull. Farming insight.

One of my favourite jokes:

Teacher gives a story problem: ‘If you have 10 sheep in a field and three jump over the fence, how many are left?’

Little Johnny raises his hand and says, ‘Zero’

Teacher says, ‘Wrong, seven. You clearly don’t understand arithmetic’

Little J replies, ‘Maybe not, but I do understand sheep’

#128 Dharma Bum on 09.05.22 at 9:38 am

Happy “Quiet Quitting Day”, millennials.

What is labour?

#129 Phylis on 09.05.22 at 10:26 am

Maybe Garth is moving today?

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.05.22 at 11:08 am

@#120 Art-of-miss.
“This failure to properly keep and organize all the engineering and manufacturing data meant that it was virtually impossible to build another one after the program had been shut down.”

****
True enough.
A few days after a Canadian Federal election.
I watched as several large document destruction trucks pull up to a loading bay of an office building I worked in.
Seems the federal contract to build nuclear power Ice Breakers was cancelled.
Several years of work by hundreds of people.
All drawings, all computer disks, all calculations, meetings, discussions, notes, etc etc etc.
Shredded.
It took 2 days of labourers with bins full of material to haul everything down to the trucks to be destroyed.
I asked one of the engineers if he was p!ssed at the waste of time and energy he had spent on the 2.5 years of planning and work and he said, “Another govt will pay us to do it all over again….”

Our tax dollars at work.

#131 jess on 09.05.22 at 12:39 pm

5 Faron on 09.03.22 at 10:25 pm

correct.

https://violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org/

#132 Malio on 09.05.22 at 4:54 pm

Umm…any more direction on rebalancing a DIY ETF/B&D portfolio twice annually from an experienced blog bog or possibly from the master of finance Obi-Wan himself? :)

#133 stealth on 09.05.22 at 11:42 pm

Thank you for the post.
When you get a chance perhaps in the future, could you disambiguate this statement
“Balance also comes from having a hunk (maybe 25%) in US$-denominated assets to counterweight our loonie”?

More specifically is a US$ denominated asset holding VTI on nyse, or would VUN (canadian dollar fund simply holding VTI underneath do)? Using these funds as examples since they are large and well known not for any suggestive reason. (equivalent blackrock or bmo etc etf can be used to illustrate an example)

seems to be quite a confusion what exactly is a US denominated asset if canadian dollars are involved.
thanks

#134 Bileth on 09.06.22 at 8:04 am

Thanks for the free advice as always. Curious why preferreds have tanked despite rates marching upwards. You’ve written many a time about how they have a positive correlation.

#135 Piano Girl in B.C. on 09.06.22 at 12:07 pm

Good Morning Garth,
A disturbing read. Very sorry this occurred. Sending healing thoughts your way.
Time for a body guard and a German shepherd.
Take good care and keep writing your blog.