The roll-back

The young woman reporter on CBC seemed breathless. This was big news. Vastly more people are turning to private mortgage financing, she said, “when interest rates have never been higher than today.”

So cute.

The bank prime is 4.7%. You can still shop around and get a multi-year home loan for less than 4%. Inflation is 8%. So it’s free money. And anyone with Lisa Laflamme-coloured hair will tell you about their old mortgage at 12% or 14% or even 20%. We’re not close to any rate peak. It’s not even a zit.

But here we be. The first rate-tightening cycle in the lives of the Mills, along with their intro to inflation. It’s a scary time after years of 2% mortgages. They feel like victims. It’s all so unfair and weird. The government should do something…

Well, kids, it gets worse. Lately it’s become evident we’re (maybe) half-way through this thing. The cost of money not only goes up again next week (and two more times this year after that) but it will stay elevated into 2024. And what are the implications of that?

First, a quick question from Patricia and her squeeze, both in their mid-60s (which means they should know better).

We find ourselves with about 1.5 mil in the bank after selling our home.  We have moved in with 95 y/o mom to provide support and are unsure about what we want to do and where we want to do it.  We plan to settle in here for a bit and wait out the housing market for awhile. Wondering where to park the $ with the possibility of needing approx half of it within the next 2-6 months. And the remainder ? Was thinking half in high yield bond fund and half in year cashable GIC. (Got 3.2%). Are we stupid? Hoping you don’t use my name in your blog (scared), but would love your thoughts.

Okay, so her name isn’t Pat. But the questions are worth answering. First, it’s not a great time to be buying a bond fund you intend to keep for just a year. As interest rates (and bond yields) rise, bond prices fall. Investors should always own some bonds for balance, but ensure they’re diversified, short duration and held over time. The yield is also fully taxable, like the interest paid by a GIC – which these days is the better option over the course of a few months.

The more salient question is whether ‘waiting out the housing market for a while’ is folly or astute. Will prices bottom by the end of the year, making that the ideal time to feast on desperate sellers, or has the slide just begun?

First, remember Friday. Jackson Hole. Powell. We’ve been telling you for the last few days that the Fed boss changed a lot of minds with his hardass comments. Mr. Market got the message loud and clear. The central bank will not pause. It will not pivot. The ‘soft landing’ talk is gone, replaced by a warning of ‘pain’ to come. Until inflation is back on its knees, central banks will keep chopping stimulus and goosing rates.

As you know, the Fed moves again in three weeks. Our guys go on Wednesday. Rates by Christmas will be 1-1.5% higher than now, and more is likely on deck for 2023. The consensus opinion now:  no lasting stability for interest rates, and certainly no reduction, for two years.

“What If Mortgage Rates stay high till 2024?” asks veteran mortgage broker Rob Butler? “What if variable rates end up over 5% and fixed rates are mid-5% for all of 2023?”

In other words, the cost of a mortgage need not escalate anywhere near levels seen in past decades, or even struggle back to the historic 10-year norm of 8%. Given the massive run-up in house prices caused by cheap money and general mental insanity, the 5% effect could be profound. Just look at RBC’s statement of days ago that 80,000 customers with variable-rate mortgages are about to see monthly payments pop as a trigger point is hit.

Says Butler:

“We have only seen a small number of people who MUST sell due to failed previous transaction issues, but a full year of 40% to 100% higher rates will require some people to sell. And that could impact prices in ways that could push prices closer to 2018 levels.”

What do 2018 prices look like? Can you even remember the BeforeTimes when we were all so naïve and cuddly?

Well, in 416 the peak 2022 price (February) was $1.334 million for all properties and $2.073 million for the average detached. By July (latest stats) those numbers had fallen to $1.074 million and $1.515 million respectively. Big drop in five months.

But in 2018 the average property price in Toronto was just $782,000 with detached houses fetching $1,350,000. So if those values were to reappear in 2024, the peak-to-trough declines would be 41% for the market as a whole and 35% for detached.

Maybe Patricia should chill, curb her house lust and enjoy life with mom. I hear 95 is the new 75.

About the picture: “Long time reader, rarely comment,” writes Beth. “But I appreciate your consistent advice and that you share your point of view. And of course, I love the dog photos. Our buddy came from a rescue just in the nick of time on March 12, 2020! Because of the white ‘Bat Signal’ on his chest, we renamed him Mr. Bruce Wayne – called Wayne for short! Such a calm and confident dog – just over 18 months old when we got him. He was very well trained so we don’t know why he ended up in a rescue. But I do ask myself ‘Who rescued who?’ Wayne is a great poser. Here he was posing in early summer with our favourite Okanagan sunflowers.”

159 comments ↓

#1 Cash is King on 08.31.22 at 2:53 pm

They just don’t want panic in the streets & folks doing unspeakable things. The rate hikes are going to get really ugly and persistent until all inflation is gone

#2 ElGatoNeroYVR on 08.31.22 at 2:57 pm

What we learned from today’s post:
– it is OK to try and time the RE market as all indicators point to a drop.
– the feds (US & CANADA) will keep hiking rates not realizing that we basically already in the forming stages of a severe recession , same as they always do historically and then shortly after when they can’t ignore it anymore they will slash rates again to overcorrect.
Anyone who believes that corporate earnings are awesome are just deluding themsleves.
Revenue is up because of inflation not unit sales.
Unfilled jobs are there because they don’t pay true living wages or out of touch with reality on their expectations , not because people are lazy.
Reality will hit soon and one thing I learned the hard way is to never try to time any market ,stock or RE. Buy when you can afford what you can afford and don’t hold money in anything that doesn’t return more than inflation.

#3 Broader Mind on 08.31.22 at 3:00 pm

Let’s just say that if the BOC doesn’t get busy raising rates bigly we will be looking at a new peso dollar. Then inflation can really rock. Hope for at least 100 points this week .

#4 Froggy2 on 08.31.22 at 3:02 pm

First hi Garth me thinks shave another 15-20 off 5 will have massive effect from 2 to 5 is like 6 to 15 so you know alot of pain coming and only in a couple of years and then lower what ever you feel it’s worth the buyer will be in the driver’s seat for many years

#5 Just Browsing on 08.31.22 at 3:02 pm

The average GTA detached was actually approx $850k in 2018 (not $1.3mill) and peaked at $1.65M in February ….the figures you quoted are for Toronto Central, so actually a lot worse in store with a potential 50% decline!

#6 Caffeine Monkey on 08.31.22 at 3:02 pm

Ah, subprime lending – gotta love it. Totally normal, nothing to see here! But if there is a problem with Canada’s real estate market, remember kids: it’s all the fault of immigrants.

#7 CanadianOne on 08.31.22 at 3:04 pm

Market, price wise is in an anger/denial mode. Bargaining hasn’t started yet….

#8 Theory of Everything on 08.31.22 at 3:07 pm

#108 IHCTD9 on 08.31.22 at 12:32 pm
#95 Theory of Everything on 08.31.22 at 9:49 am

…What can we do when we live under a government like this?
_____

As you said, vote. But also avoid supporting them via your taxes.

Consume less, buy used, repair the old stuff (better quality most of the time anyway). Work less, or earn differently. Get a more fuel efficient vehicle, heat partially or wholly with wood. Fill your RRSP and your FHSA if you qualify to get some income taxes back. Do your own roof, fix your own car, maintain your own property – no taxes are paid on services not rendered.

Federal revenues come mostly from income taxes and retail taxes. Downsizing and simplifying is good for the soul, good for your finances, good for the planet, but punishes Ottawa. Some innocents get punished too with this action, but you can’t do much without some collateral damage.

If you can choose to do this, be glad you can do so at your option. The way things are heading in Canada, more and more will have to downsize their lives whether they want to or not.

_____

This is just very good advice overall I feel. It steps back form the consumerism epidemic that is destroying so much. If all of us applied it, this planet would be a significantly better place.

As to voting for our leaders outside of those actions, I don’t think that matters anymore. These people are not people of integrity. There is no place for person of integrity in these democracies.

Tax revenue? THEY DON’T CARE! Things will balance themselves.

Funny, when watching House of Cards (TV Show – US version) I remember distinctly feeling that the show runner really made it a point that the US Politician characters we were watching were much more compromised than Viktor Petrov – the obvious Vladimir Putin stand in character.

You know what is funny? I am actually noticing this in real life now. I think Vladimir Putin is indeed exposing the short sighted sellouts that our leaders are and how they squirm and sell us out to maintain power. Pretty distasteful stuff, and what does that say about our leaders?

#9 Kent Ketchum on 08.31.22 at 3:07 pm

First!

#10 Ben Dover on 08.31.22 at 3:09 pm

So what should she do with the money she is sitting on?

Depends entirely on their employment status, pension situation, liquid assets, family obligations and risk tolerance. This is why you never ask a blog for financial advice. – Garth

#11 Søren Angst on 08.31.22 at 3:09 pm

Dayton OH today or mini-Jackson Hole II.

Well Garth, 1 of the Almighty US Fed 12 (Mester *) signalling to Mr. Market where the US benchmark rate is headed and by when:

“My current view is that it will be necessary to move the fed funds rate up to somewhat above 4 percent by early next year and hold it there”

AND

“I do not anticipate the Fed cutting the fed funds rate target next year.”

(I liked the “somewhat above” part).

——————

Thus, Mr. Market no longer has to guess, per the article author:

“Markets currently are pricing in only a 1-in-3 chance of the funds rate climbing above 4% next year.”

Make that a 3-in-3 chance.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/31/feds-mester-sees-benchmark-rate-above-4percent-and-no-cuts-at-least-through-2023.html

Mr. Market will either accept reality or will have bird about the:

+ 2-in-3 chance

of today.

* Mind you, Mester is hawkish (pre-pandemic votes of the Almighty 12):

http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/USA-FED/010021SN4EG/index.html

#12 Robert B on 08.31.22 at 3:11 pm

The failed Trudeau and central bank policies caused
this increase in mortgages…..

Cause and effect
$400 billion borrowed by Trudeau
and more to come
Low interest rates – Canadian central bank

Perfect storm
More money chasing too few good
More inflation to come.

Both Trudeau and the CBank miscalculated.
Bring in the Conservatives….PP

Cons to do what? Fire the bankers? Raise rates more and faster? How would that deal with global inflation? – Garth

#13 IHCTD9 on 08.31.22 at 3:13 pm

Wayne looks like a Cane Corso. Burly doggies those.

#14 Prince Polo on 08.31.22 at 3:15 pm

Is it hip to be a loser renter yet? Tragically, no.

#15 Timmy on 08.31.22 at 3:22 pm

We’ve had the longest bull run in real estate in most people’s lives. It has run up to absurd levels relative to other G7 countries, so why wouldn’t it fall 30-40%?

By the way, here’s a site that shows homes that have been taken off the market:
https://www.zealty.ca/stats.html

Why would anyone take a house off the market now unless they planned to hold it for at least another 7 years? Wouldn’t one want to drop the price to sell it before things get worse? Or, are these people delusional?

#16 Robert B on 08.31.22 at 3:25 pm

“Cons to do what? Fire the bankers? Raise rates more and faster? How would that deal with global inflation? – Garth”

Not fire the bankers but change policies.

We did not need to borrow that much and interest rates should not have been that low. We saw housing go up 40%…..I’m sure central banks are not the stupid to see the result of their policy mistake.

Start with Trudeau
Farmers must cut fertilizer use by 30%
That would just raise food prices more..

Allow Canada to sell its most valuable commodities to
the world. Canada is being shut out of selling Natural Gas and oil to the world…thanks Trudeau

Get rid of the carbon tax…..why punish the citizens of Canada with this unneccesary tax. Rebates no way add up to the tax that is paid by us…

When one party disagrees with you then you vote for the alternative………Free spending countries do not last…..

#17 IHCTD9 on 08.31.22 at 3:36 pm

#124 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 2:03 pm

Oh, that’s a beauty. The perfect setup: open, walk-around, centre console, lightweight. In 30 years, the grandkids will be using that same boat.

My ideal is the exact same layout, just 4′ longer for the smoother ride and big-water capability.
____________

Building one is probably the only way I’d ever get to own one of those welded aluminum beauties. Hideously expensive practical artwork that lasts for decades. I love the tread plate floor and the width of that boat.

He built an 11′ skiff too, beautiful.

#18 Dave on 08.31.22 at 3:39 pm

Global inflation has been out of control for years….Central banks are 5 plus years too late to react!!

#19 Timmy on 08.31.22 at 3:40 pm

Robert B:

Bring in the Cons? LOL…Harper racked up the biggest deficit of any PM before the pandemic. We have high inflation in all G7 countries and it is higher in the UK than here. The central bank policies saved the economy from collapsing.

#20 Summertime on 08.31.22 at 3:49 pm

Energy prices in Europe are outright hyperinflationary.

It has started.

#21 Shawn on 08.31.22 at 3:52 pm

Oil and bacon and the Canadian dolalr

#128 epic bear on 08.31.22 at 2:24 pm
#122 Shawn on 08.31.22 at 1:51 pm

Oil and gas is bringing home the bacon to this province and country

__________________

and yet, the loonie is trading where?
where’s the real bacon?

*************************************
The loonie, in U.S. dollars is somewhere around the middle of the range that it has been over the past 50 years or so.

Alberta is getting a projected windfall of $13 billion this year from higher energy prices.

Do you want to sniff and say that’s only $10 billion U.S. dollars?

Well, Alberta’s debts and expenses (mostly staff) are in Canadian dollars.

If your glass is half empty due to a slightly lower loonie, I can’t help you.

Those who are optimistic can move to Alberta. But we don’t need more glass-half-empty people. We got enough of those.

What do you want to comment next? That Adel is still being played on the radio? I can’t help that either.

Yes. higher oil and energy prices are bringing home the bacon to Alberta and Canada. No other sector is remotely close when it comes to bringing in outside dollars. (Net exports)

A higher loonie would LOWER the oil revenues in Canadian dollars. Who would that help? Snow birds?, yes. Most Canadians? Not so much. Those with U.S. investments?, no.

#22 2SLGBTQI+ on 08.31.22 at 3:53 pm

We now know what 2SLGBTQI+ stands for.

What does IHCTD9 stand for?

#23 45north on 08.31.22 at 3:54 pm

Well, kids, it gets worse. Lately it’s become evident we’re (maybe) half-way through this thing. The cost of money not only goes up again next week (and two more times this year after that) but it will stay elevated into 2024. And what are the implications of that?

chalkie (from yesterday) Last year in Canada (2021), 667,000 homes changed hands, this story alone tells us, there is a lot of buyer remorse running around.

Implications are the drop in sales will continue. The Canadian real estate market freezes over.

#24 Søren Angst on 08.31.22 at 4:08 pm

Well, it took awhile but it would appear the US Financial MSM waking up to what exactly does (Reuters/yahoo! wondering as well, not just CNBC):

“somewhat above 4%”

mean?

[current US benchmark rates 2.25% to 2.50%, Canada 2.5% to 2.75%]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-mester-interest-rates-rise-120644554.html

Well, the short of it is the US rate going up 1.5% to 1.75% by early 2023.

If Garth is correct, he usually is, the Bank of Canada rate set to go up “somewhat above” 4% as well.

Mr. Market is going to have a bird. Oh well…

#25 the Jaguar on 08.31.22 at 4:09 pm

We’re on our way up to 33 degrees here today in Cowtown. Feel free to strip down to your ‘skivvies’ fellow Albertans. You never give a damn what the rest of the country thinks anyway, so you may as well be comfortable. Take a few runs through the sprinkler.

Since Powell’s name is still being circulated in one form or another on the blog, here is an interesting excerpt from a great interview with Jeremy Grantham. I just can’t get enough of the guy. It’s from a year ago, but sometimes that’s the fun of it. Replay the reel and see what has transpired since then…The entire interview is great, but the Powell reference at 25:35 of 53:54 is really something. Love the way he refers to the ‘cult members’. No flies on Grantham.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOLrX_BrQiA

More than anything I hope that the previous owner of Mr. Bruce Wayne is a reader of this blog. If he or she was forced to surrender this beautiful, very well trained animal it would give some peace of mind to see that someone was able to give him a beautiful life.

#26 truefacts on 08.31.22 at 4:09 pm

Cons to do what? Fire the bankers? Raise rates more and faster? How would that deal with global inflation? – Garth
________________________________________

1. Spend less so you stop adding “gasoline” to the inflation “fire”.
2. Build pipelines to export to our allies and help drive down energy costs.
3. Stop stupid polices like fertilizer reduction by 30% to boost food production to lower food prices.

Garth – you ran for Conservative leader right after Mulroney. You were logical – have you forgotten? Surely the policies of “Mr Socks” have exacerbated things…why defend stupidity?

What defence? – Garth

#27 PBrasseur on 08.31.22 at 4:14 pm

Some things that are different now, in no particular order:

The biggest RE bubble of all time is clearly crashing the world’s second economy.

https://youtu.be/DGsDOA7fymk

Due to its idealistic and idiotic choices the world’s third economy (and a lot of Europe), Germany, is being hit by exploding energy prices.

Contrary to the 70s and 80s the developed world is living with population ageing and shrinking work force.

https://youtu.be/rcla09iyGo8

Europe must raise rates to fight inflation yet at the same time must print money to save debt ridden Italy, and much of the rest of Europe is not much better.

Yet while the proportion of working age population is shrinking there’s more debt than there’s ever been before in history.

What could possibly go wrong?

#28 ogdoad on 08.31.22 at 4:14 pm

Don’t be scared, isn’t Pat. Its nice to hear that seniors don’t know everything…from this day forward my senior outlook on life has completely changed. . . .

I agree with G. Mom’s 95…maybe let’s reflect on her for a little bit. You’re good, right? Time to reciprocate…time to hug.

Og

#29 Victor Llearna on 08.31.22 at 4:27 pm

Powell teaching the sheep a lesson in pain on friday at Jackson Hole. Hope he raises rate to 1980 levels, YUGE rout on canadian housing!

#30 truefacts on 08.31.22 at 4:40 pm

What defence? – Garth
________________________________________

When Robert B said, “Bring in the Conservatives” you replied – “To do what?” I assumed you meant that they would be no better – but my assumption was wrong apparently – sorry.

Whoever the new Conservative leader is will be WAY better than Trudeau and help get us back on track!
I will unequivocally support whoever wins – it’s time for the right to unite again – for the good of Canada.

Pepe’s pronouncements on monetary policy are bizarre. Demand better. – Garth

#31 TurnerNation on 08.31.22 at 4:48 pm

On the permanent rolling global Economic & Social Lockdowns.
Our rulers are gunning for any reason. This is not planned to ‘be over’ any time soon.

.Officials monitoring sewage at Pearson airport as part of pilot aimed at detecting new COVID variants (cp24.com)

— From the Killing us Softly Dept. We were to be so healthy after all the rules, mandates??

.U.S. life expectancy drops again, marking worst 2-year decline in a century (msn.com)

“‘It Just Seems Like My Patients Are Sicker’”
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/08/america-health-premature-death-disability-post-pandemic/671276/


— War on Small Business continues. Winding down the Former First World Countries.
Corvid, Climate (and Energy).

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/how-name-god-shocked-europeans-post-astronomical-energy-bills-terrifying-winter-approaches
“Over the past week, shocked Europeans – mostly in the UK and Ireland – have been posting viral photos of shockingly high energy bills amid the ongoing (and worsening) energy crisis. One such owner is Geraldine Dolan, who owns the Poppyfields cafe in Athlone, Ireland – and was charged nearly €10,000 (US$10,021) for just over two months of energy usage.”

#32 Yorkville Renter on 08.31.22 at 4:50 pm

the problem with most Cons is that they think hating on PP means love for JT, which is as stupid as ‘you’re either with us or against us’

#33 Ronaldo on 08.31.22 at 4:50 pm

#29 Victor Llearna on 08.31.22 at 4:27 pm
Powell teaching the sheep a lesson in pain on friday at Jackson Hole. Hope he raises rate to 1980 levels, YUGE rout on canadian housing!
—————————————————————
Will never happen. The rate hike in the 80’s only doubled the normal rate. 5 or 6% today will do just fine. Better hope it goes no higher.

#34 Nora Lenderby on 08.31.22 at 4:55 pm

#22 2SLGBTQI+ on 08.31.22 at 3:53 pm
“…What does IHCTD9 stand for?”

It’s a tractor, dude. As any fule kno.

#35 Guy in Calgary on 08.31.22 at 4:56 pm

This inflation is a predictable result however, I do not think anyone predicted 8%-10%.

Let’s see what happens. If you bought a good home within your means and you are staying there, nothing really to worry about.

If you invested in quality investments within your risk tolerance and time horizon, nothing to worry about.

Go outside and enjoy the summer.

#36 Robert B on 08.31.22 at 5:01 pm

Timmy on 08.31.22 at 3:40 pm
We have high inflation in all G7 countries and it is higher in the UK than here. The central bank policies saved the economy from collapsing.

So the Canadian central bank lowered rates to riculously low rates which help fueled a housing bubble which is now popping in the GTA Toronto. This is taking down many people who thought that they had a right to owning a house but now are under water and are looking at darker days in due time.
The same applied to the UK

Inflation was caused by excessive easy money for too long.

Sounds like sound Central bank policy……..

#37 Boomer busted on 08.31.22 at 5:04 pm

#52 Theory of Everything on 08.30.22 at 7:32 pm

What freedoms? The young were locked away. Their freedom taken away. Their liberty taken away. Charter of rights suspended. Emergency declared for protesters but not for devastating storm that caused death and destruction.

——————————————————————-
Yes, the boomers may not have youth any longer, and one day, maybe sooner than you think or hope, you also will not. That is an undeniable truth. But boomers (some) do have the sagacity that can only come from having spent that much time on the planet.

I laugh when I see you mention the recent protesters and how you were duped. I realized, even as it unfolded what it was really about. Many people did … except you and Polievre. (If I could get back my contribution that I made to his party a few years back, I would!)

https://www.trucknews.com/blogs/the-so-called-freedom-convoy-was-never-about-truckers-or-border-mandates/

Your remarks remind me of one of my favorite sayings ever …

“It’s Easier to Fool People Than It Is to Convince Them That They Have Been Fooled.”

#38 CJohnC on 08.31.22 at 5:04 pm

#22 2SLGBTQI+ :

It’s an easy google

#39 Søren Angst on 08.31.22 at 5:09 pm

#27 PBrasseur

Canada

Fed Debt = $1048.75 CAD Billion (2021)
Household Debt 106.48% of GDP (1st Qtr 2022) = $2180 CAD Billion
[$2.047 trillion GDP Mar 2022)

or

$3230 CAD Billion…whoops, forgot the provinces at $1.4 CAD Billion in 2020; thus,

$4630 CAD Billion (probably more as Cdn data 1 to 2 years old)

———-

Italia Gov Debt = $3652 CAD Billion (Jun 2022)
Italia Household Debt = $1490 CAD Billion (1st Qtr 2022)

or

$5142 CAD Billion

I would not say Canada is the lead baton twirling majorette in the low debt parade of nations, still doing a bit better than threadbare Italia.

Italian passtime in case you didn’t know, is avoiding to pay taxes owing. Why they have the Guardia di Finanza to collect it which is = CRA + Army + Airforce + Navy.

If the Right gets in this Sept, Italia will probably have a 15% Flat Tax which ought to pay down the national debt, no more hiding or freeloading.

———————-

PS:

Canada Corporate Debt in 2020 was 300% including Household, so Corporate Debt was 190% or so = $3310 CAD Billion

Italia Corporate Debt in 2020 was 180% including Household, so Corporate Debt was 135% or so = $2550 CAD Billion

…oh look using the above ARITHMETIC, CANADA SAME Gov, Household + Corporate debt as THREADBARE Italia

Imagine that?

Baci d’Italia

#40 Søren Angst on 08.31.22 at 5:16 pm

#27 PBrasseur

* provinces at $1.4 CAD Billion in 2020

$1400 billion

#41 The Original Jake on 08.31.22 at 5:26 pm

A revisit back to 2018 prices would not be a bargain, that was when we had the last blowoff top that never fully corrected. What we need to get are 2014 prices or roughly another 40-50% haircut from today’s average selling price before we can call it a full-on housing reset.

#42 Bilious Festeroni on 08.31.22 at 5:33 pm

#124 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 2:03 pm

Oh, that’s a beauty. The perfect setup: open, walk-around, centre console, lightweight. In 30 years, the grandkids will be using that same boat.

My ideal is the exact same layout, just 4′ longer for the smoother ride and big-water capability.
____________

Building one is probably the only way I’d ever get to own one of those welded aluminum beauties. Hideously expensive practical artwork that lasts for decades. I love the tread plate floor and the width of that boat.

He built an 11′ skiff too, beautiful.

————————

Great share, thanks. Agreed on the practicality of these boats – we have a 19′ Lifetimer that I picked up used, and had a local guy weld a cabin on it. Moved the helm forward, and it now has more deck space. Incredibly capable – fishing, multiday outside coast missions, run it up on the beach – you name it. They might look like a floating trash can after they’ve been through the wringer, but….they’re still floating!

#43 PBrasseur on 08.31.22 at 5:37 pm

Pepe’s pronouncements on monetary policy are bizarre. Demand better. – Garth

He’s still by far the most interesting candidate and nothing I’ve seen so far is better.

We have a massive RE bulle while 400 billions were printed and the BoC help 40% of the federal debt. No one else even talked about it. Just for doing so he deserves my support.

#44 Quintilian on 08.31.22 at 5:37 pm

“Pepe’s pronouncements on monetary policy are bizarre. Demand better. – Garth”

True, but they are a product of the right, and in line with the Canadian Retrumplican nut bars on this blog.

Unfortunately /(or fortunately), with God’s help Pepe will
be elected as leader.

Harper’s sins have not yet been absolved.
And the conservatives will remain in purgatory I would guess another decade.

#45 earthboundmisfit on 08.31.22 at 5:37 pm

“Pepe’s pronouncements on monetary policy are bizarre. Demand better. – Garth”

Agree … but do you really think he believes the nonsense he is spewing? He used to strike me as smarter. I am more concerned about the influence of Jenni Byrne. That woman is evil.

#46 Rent the podium on 08.31.22 at 5:41 pm

Meanwhile, here in Victoria, a 2 bedroom duplex just sold for over $1M. Prices seem to be holding.

#47 Silky on 08.31.22 at 5:53 pm

Inflation! Demagoguery! Division! War in Eastern Europe!

Can you feel the gears of history grinding you down? Next up in the 100 year schedule is political extremism, hope you guys haven’t been saying mean things on Twitter.

#48 Dragonfly58 on 08.31.22 at 5:57 pm

IHC , International Harvester Corp. TD9 Tracked Diesel , size 9. A very common crawler tractor built from 1939 – 1962. Just shy of 60,000 of them were built. Not a small machine, but not particulary large as ” Cat bulldozer “style machines go .

https://www.tractordata.com/farm-tractors/003/3/2/3327-international-harvester-td-9.html

#49 Reality is stark on 08.31.22 at 5:58 pm

The drop peak to trough will be 50%, I’ve said it for 2 years now.
The Fed will pivot as Brent will soon hit $60 a barrel.
Iran has 80 million barrels floating about and will increase production once they get the go ahead in a few weeks.
Biden is intent on breaking Russia as he should be.
The Canadian buck is a disaster waiting to happen.
An administration intent on rewarding the risk averse has done about as much damage as they possibly could to the country. But not until they squeeze every drop of blood out of you as they raid the equity in your house going forward.
You were sold a house of cards and you bought it.
The Ukrainians coming here will find out they are actually not too badly off as many in their peer group are 600 thou in the hole.
But you can pretend that everything is fine if you want as the people you vote in continue to spend your money foolishly.

#50 PBrasseur on 08.31.22 at 5:59 pm

@Soren #39

I agreed with you, in terms of debt, globally Canada at 345% of gdp is a worse basket case than Italy.

It is actually worse than all countries in the world except Japan, France and … Greece!

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/debt-strapped-canadians-brace-for-a-risky-rate-hiking-cycle-1.1711107

But two wrongs don’t make a right do they?

#51 Bezengy on 08.31.22 at 5:59 pm

The CMHC has approximately 400b of insurance in force. Their latest update expects RE to drop by only 5 percent. I find this extremely optimistic. I bet they’re discussing a few “what if” scenarios on a daily basis.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/cmhc-releases-results-for-q1-2022-882025077.html

https://financialpost.com/real-estate/mortgages/cmhc-expects-5-decline-in-home-prices-by-2023-if-interest-rates-spike/wcm/5d740893-6be1-4d20-9c80-dabda104fcf7/amp/

#52 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.31.22 at 6:08 pm

Regarding: Yelling at Freeland.
That’s a toughie.
Freedom of speech and all that Jazz.
Nothing wrong with “good old fashioned heckling”.
Depends on what is being yelled.
Can’t ridicule Jag for wearing a turban.
Social norms have certainly changed quite a bit.
Do we want our politician be afraid to interact with the populace?
But then of course there’s the “slippery slope” argument, that I think Garth is alluding to.
Where does it end?
I believe that FURZ thinks that I attended the infamous “Nuremberg rallies”.
I did not, because of time difference, but I’m sure there were no protesters there.
Story:
One evening, I walked by the Hotel Vancouver and saw Joe Clark (no longer PM) surrounded by and casually talking with some people.
No visible security detail around.
A couple that just came out of the Lobby ask me who that man was.
After I said, our former PM, they shook their heads and said:
You Canadians are so lucky.
Turns out they were Americans.
Tu Felix Kanada.

#53 NOSTRADAMUS on 08.31.22 at 6:10 pm

IT’S JUST A RECALIBRATION!
Numerous banks are forecasting a 20 to 25% real estate price drop from the peak price seen earlier this year. To sugar coat this forecast they suggest that the forecast can more aptly be described as a recalibration of the market instead of something more severe. As God is my witness, I am not making this statement up.
I guess the wee little people taking a 25% hit to their finances is really not a big deal to the fat cat bankers posting Billion Dollar profits year in year out. We all know that when the sh+t hits the fan there will be no relief for the little people. However, if past history is any guide, we all know without a shadow of doubt, should the banking cartel experience even the slightest discomfort, the wee little people will once again be called upon to step up for the good of all. Hmmm, are these same banks not the good Samaritans who provided the liquidity (gas) to keep the housing fires burn so brightly? Do not trouble your sleep, being good Samaritans, and in an act of charity, bundled these same mortgages together and sold these mortgage backed securities to pension funds starving for yields. By hook or by crook you can’t keep a banker down. Finally, the voice of reason.

#54 Faron on 08.31.22 at 6:13 pm

#134 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 3:36 pm
#127 Faron on 08.31.22 at 2:23 pm

1. Incorrect. My behaviour is beyond reproach

Yes. Not in the direction you think though.

Now, when you said “indifference”, did you mean to say “I will feign indifference”? Because that’s what you are showing us.

Now, live up to it. Goodbye.

#55 Faron on 08.31.22 at 6:18 pm

#136 Ustabe on 08.31.22 at 4:37 pm

…in their eyes they are never wrong.

Yep, and if they aren’t wrong they have nothing to apologize for. Beyond reproach and all that. Baby Trump with a skein of Elon Musk pseudoengineering.

#56 mife on 08.31.22 at 6:19 pm

How do we accept the CBC reporter spouting such non-sense?

It would take all of 30 seconds to ‘fact check’ the statement – why do we have to pay our tax dollars into this? Shameful.

#57 Paul on 08.31.22 at 6:22 pm

Okay, so her name isn’t Pat.

——————————————————-
Nice try but his name is Pat , right?

#58 Faron on 08.31.22 at 6:23 pm

#52 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.31.22 at 6:08 pm
Regarding: Yelling at Freeland.
That’s a toughie

It is. I agree with Garth and the others that political speech doesn’t have to be orderly, but when a 200+ lb burly person has a 5 foot nothing senior member of government backed into a corner (worse, an elevator) and is waving their hands around yelling, that’s beyond the pale. And this is without mentioning the gender difference.

Stop exaggerating. She had three staff with her and was never cornered. Size and gender are irrelevant in political life. She is not special. – Garth

#59 AM in MN on 08.31.22 at 6:28 pm

Cons to do what? Fire the bankers? Raise rates more and faster? How would that deal with global inflation? – Garth

—————————————————-

Enough with the “global” problem. T2 & the BoC made this mess by shutting down the economy and printing money.

If enough people were forced back to work in the production side of the economy, and Oil & Gas and minerals were able to operate more freely, the C$ would be up near parity to the US$ and prices would be much lower.

We’ll see if the BoC keeps its nerve, I’m not optimistic.

I noticed that at least it keeps tabs of the losses on Govt. of Canada bonds that it is unwinding off its balance sheet (the largest item by far), with some agreement that the taxpayers pay it back. So far C$35B, again, we’ll see, but I suspect they monetize the debt like Argentina.

Canadian monetary policy was identical to that of the US, UK, ECB and most of the western world. If you wanted a made-in-Canada pandemic depression, then Pepe should have been the PM. He would have done well at it. These words are no blanket approval of the BoC actions, of course, as the bank left rates too low for too long (identical to the Fed). But folks like you with political blinders on tight are just making good choices more elusive. – Garth

#60 Faron on 08.31.22 at 6:31 pm

2 more things:

1. ES gamma is bottom decile negative thus amplifying index directionality up or down. Markets gonna MOVE tomorrow. I believe a collar would be the appropriate trade in such a circumstance.

2. That’s Balsam Root in the picture, not Sunflower. An important plant for first nations peoples. Beautiful all the same and a lovely feature of central BC, Washington and Oregon in spring. Great pic.

#61 Linda on 08.31.22 at 6:38 pm

The difference between then (1980’s) & now is that RE prices used to be within reach of the ‘average’ Canadian. Nowadays, not so much. Even if RE did revert to 2018 prices, it would still be way too much debt for the average Canadian to take on.

Buying a house used to be the achievement of a dream. Nowadays, it is more like a nightmare.

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.31.22 at 6:53 pm

“Stop exaggerating. She had three staff with her and was never cornered. Size and gender are irrelevant in political life. She is not special. – Garth”

++++

Please Garth.
Let Faron roll.
He’s beginning to sound like the wheezy, breathless Prime Minister we are currently saddled with.

Ah the good old days when our PM would grab a protester by the throat and twist him to the ground….

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjnz63PlfL5AhVlAjQIHXQIACsQFnoECA8QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FShawinigan_Handshake&usg=AOvVaw30D3fLI_0XhX4tGQHTNmBo

#63 OK, Doomer on 08.31.22 at 6:56 pm

Prices are set on the margin; on the way up and on the way down.

It only took 10% of US homeowners to get in trouble to trigger a housing tsunami. This is the one situation where the actions of the most reckless and financially irresponsible neighbor on your street can have a massive impact on you.

Canadians are not cuter and smarter than Americans. Were not even luckier. We just listen to Zed Zed Top instead of Zee Zee Top.

#64 yvr_lurker on 08.31.22 at 7:06 pm

We get it and agree. For those who leveraged to purchase a house in a non-prime area after 2019 are in a bad way if they need to sell for some reason over the next few years. I don’t think anyone would have expected the culmination of factors that have led such a large incline in rates over a short time with much still to come. Peak to trough it is bad. Larry Summers was the most on point with the inflationary spiral many months ago and I thank a reader here for pointing him out. He is the sage on the stage.

However, peak to trough on investments are also looking rather sad as well, with much pain I think yet to come. My B+D defined contribution work pension plan is off roughly 6.5% since January 1st. Will it break even by the end of December? If it stays at -6.5%, the effectively it is a 12% loss as one would expect that on average it should yield +6%. However, I do understand that some years it is +12% and others -5%. The extreme volatility on either side is a bad omen.

Not much I can do, but my view would be that if you have NEW money (i.e. gift, falling from the sky, inheritance, money tree planted in the back yard) and absolutely need some guarantee of a 4% gain in the next year, just choose a GIC and then decide what to do after 1 year. There will be many surprises still in the cards over the next year or so, and volatility will likely be high.

signed, PhD, but not in economics.

#65 TJ on 08.31.22 at 7:17 pm

Poster Linda, suck it up. Who cares about real estate prices dropping 30%+. Canadians are too gullible to believe low interest rates were to make them alot of money with houses, condos while sucking off the bank and GIC depositors, taxpayers through CMHC. It is time to pay the piper.

#66 Horace Haggis on 08.31.22 at 7:19 pm

Forget the Big Mac PPP index, we have a major inflation indicator here with the Deep Fried Mars bar crisis, one of the UK’s national dishes

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/chip-shop-runs-out-deep-27873894

If the haggis runs out, the end is nigh …cue Robbie Burns

Some hae meat and canna eat, and some wad eat that want it; But we hae meat, and we can eat, Sae let the Lord be thankit.”

#67 unbalanced on 08.31.22 at 7:23 pm

Just admit it Garth. You don’t like Freeland or the gov she represents. Maybe someone thought you deserved the eggs.

On this blog I am routinely accused of being a liberal. And a conservative. Like most Canadians, I am both. – Garth

#68 unbalanced on 08.31.22 at 7:58 pm

It’s your blog. But you can only vote for one. And no. Most Canadians aren’t both. You only get one X on the ballot. Go figure

Actually most people want a socially progressive and fiscally conservative country. You know, Progressive Conservative. We are still paying for the hubris of Preston Manning. – Garth

#69 Zed on 08.31.22 at 7:59 pm

I think that the Bank of Canada should stop at 1/4 point increase next week and wait for further mouvement since i believe that the inflation thing in Canada is done and bigger increases would really damage the economy. We have a very big debt to pay back and only working people are paying in the system.

Gas is at the same price as a year ago, house prices are down 20%-25% so about where they were a year ago (when nothing seems to be going right in the country) that means that from now we can move at an appropriate speed.

If T2 did not increase the carbon tax on April 1st the inflation would have been much lower. If T2 would not create more incentives for new house buyers, prices would be lower. If local governments removed tariffs and building restrictions, house/condo prices would be lower. If all levels of governements reduced their employees numbers, more people would be available to do real work thus reducing labour shortage and less pressure on prices.

Little things would do so much, so little willingness to do the right thing by our elected official.

#70 Faron on 08.31.22 at 8:03 pm

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.31.22 at 6:53 pm

Please Garth.
Let Faron roll

I dunno FURZ, that could be pretty dangerous. You may encounter an opposing narrative, heaven forbid.

#71 DON on 08.31.22 at 8:03 pm

#131 Wrk.dover on 08.31.22 at 2:36 pm
I agree, bad manners should not be a civil crime.

The next level is, which the story says he did not reach.

Thanks for the oil talk Don.

***********
No problemo just reporting what I am reading.

I’m ok with the heckling and I laughed when every third or 4th word was f”ck like a Sapranos episode. Myself I would have challenged her with facts…swearing is bush league even though culturally it just rolls effortlessly out of my mouth.

#72 Michael in-north-york on 08.31.22 at 8:03 pm

#45 earthboundmisfit on 08.31.22 at 5:37 pm

“Pepe’s pronouncements on monetary policy are bizarre. Demand better. – Garth”

Agree … but do you really think he believes the nonsense he is spewing? He used to strike me as smarter.
===

PP is intelligent. But he spent nearly all of his career in the parliament. He might not fully understand the difference between the written laws and the real life.

#73 Harrassment on 08.31.22 at 8:12 pm

Every citizen has the right to yell at an elected official. It sure happened to me over nine years, including getting egged on Parliament Hill. This snowflakism is more disturbing than the ill manners of a good ‘ol boy who displayed his cultural background, and should not be arrested for it. We are losing perspective. – Garth

No Garth … that is simply not true. As a former crown attorney, I can tell you that, in Canada, criminal harassment is an unlawful act of bothering a victim in a way that leaves the victim reasonably fearful for their safety. This can include communicating with the victim repeatedly, such as making unwanted phone calls or sending offending emails and text messages. Stalking or following someone, resulting in the victim to fear for their safety is also considered as criminal harassment.

The act of egging someone could carry a penalty of 5 years for assault.

Every citizen has the right to yell, scream and swear at elected officials. The guy in question may be an uncouth dork, but this was not criminal harassment. – Garth

#74 baloney Sandwitch on 08.31.22 at 8:12 pm

Recessions usually arrive 8 to 12 months after a bear market. TSX has not even hit a bear market though SPX hit one in June. So, I think we should be in recession next spring. That would be a decent time to looking for a house.

#75 A01 on 08.31.22 at 8:18 pm

So Pat shouldn’t buy, but what should she do with the $1.5M they have in their bank account?

#76 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.31.22 at 8:28 pm

#62 FURZ
Please Garth.
Let Faron roll.
He’s beginning to sound like the wheezy, breathless Prime Minister we are currently saddled with.
———————————
You talking about JT?
Well, I’m looking at probably the most handsome PM, since his father ruled the land.
He looks in perfect shape, and his hair is something to behold.
He’s taking his time answering questions.
Nothing wrong with that.
Better than Pepe who forgets to put his brain in gear before proclaiming that he will lead Canada to the promised land.

#77 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 8:31 pm

Off teaching the next generation of bright young engineers; what’d I miss?

Hmmm… a little doomy, a little upbeat, some schadenfreude, a nice dog, some overblown hysterics about a verbal exchange, boats and… haggis!

For the Freeland yeller, I believe our finance minister’s sturdy caboose could deliver a serious hip check in a pinch.

For the haggis, my attempt at deer haggis will soon be here. Nothing like boiled organ meat in a stomach lining! I’ll need Soren’s address.

#78 The joy of steerage on 08.31.22 at 8:34 pm

#68 unbalanced on 08.31.22 at 7:58 pm
It’s your blog. But you can only vote for one. And no. Most Canadians aren’t both. You only get one X on the ballot. Go figure

Actually most people want a socially progressive and fiscally conservative country. You know, Progressive Conservative. We are still paying for the hubris of Preston Manning. – Garth

Eh, you went extinct! They gelded you!

#79 Summertime on 08.31.22 at 8:40 pm

Now as the thing is hitting the fan, they have to lie that it is not their fault:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-takes-twitter-set-100000893.html

“We did not print cash to pay for the bonds,” the thread went on to say.

These peoplekind are taking us for idiots.

So where was the cash found if it was not printed?

Was it borrowed on the open market?
No.
Was it acquired by selling some financial instrument?
No.

It was printed. Period. Imagine the fear of the magnitude of what is really coming in order to lie that openly.

There were signs with ‘open, transparent, dynamic’ at their press conferences.

Honest people don’t need that.

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.31.22 at 8:42 pm

@70 Faron vs Furzy
“I dunno FURZ, that could be pretty dangerous. You may encounter an opposing narrative, heaven forbid.”
+++
And I’m ok with that.
Just as long as you don’t cheat at cards…..

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjYq4jwrfL5AhWVK30KHdMaB_IQwqsBegQIAxAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FAllThingsComedy%2Fvideos%2Fproof-that-bobby-lee-has-been-cheating-at-cards-since-the-temple-of-doom-pseudos%2F364247507803818%2F&usg=AOvVaw3l5bTfty_qljYEks5ZI9B-

#81 AM in MN on 08.31.22 at 8:50 pm

Canadian monetary policy was identical to that of the US, UK, ECB and most of the western world. If you wanted a made-in-Canada pandemic depression, then Pepe should have been the PM.

—————————————————-

I don’t follow your logic Garth.

I have no respect for the BoE or the Fed either, but that isn’t the point.

If the BoC didn’t print 400B to buy Govt. of Canada bonds so that they could pay people not to work, while there were “help wanted” signs everywhere, the C$ would be trading much higher than it is now. It was a political choice to shut so much of the economy down, that’s what the truckers protest was largely about, especially shutting the border when so much of the economy is based on trade and travel.

Fuel and most items in the grocery store are effectively priced globally in US$. If the C$ was at US$0.90 or above, things would be less expensive for average people and the nurses wouldn’t be planning to walk unless they get 30% more.

These are political choices, and PP is the only MP I heard addressing them over the last two years.

The world has a huge appetite for the energy, agriculture and minerals that Canadian Companies produce (don’t use the term “Canada produces”, it doesn’t). It could produce a lot more and the nation as a whole would be more prosperous and we wouldn’t to listen to the CBC play sob stories about poor people who probably voted for this mess.

BTW, the UK is now going to freeze seniors in their homes this winter because of the nuthead green agenda of 12 years of “Conservative” Governments. This in a country that is sitting on hundreds of years worth of coal and a nation that had nuclear power before most people there were born.

This is called De-evolution, a theory I’m coming to believe in more.

#82 West New West on 08.31.22 at 8:57 pm

Oh thats nice…..’who rescued who….’

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.31.22 at 8:58 pm

@#76 Ponzies Perfect PM

Good to kno that you value “style” over “substance”.
You mentioned the PM’s good looks and hair….

Unfortunately you neglected to mention he couldn’t hold his own in a debate with a soft Turnip.

Yes.
Our beloved PM and his ever changing ensemble of sox may be a lot of things .
But a stirring intellectual with rousing speechify….ain’t one of his few attributes.
Sad. So sad.

#84 Karlhungus on 08.31.22 at 9:02 pm

2 more rates hikes – then they pause.

#85 Linda on 08.31.22 at 9:02 pm

#65 ‘TJ’ – my point is that the cost of RE is too high for most Canadians to afford, even if prices did drop as much as Garth’s example of 41%. There is nothing wrong with renting instead of owning, but rents have been increasing at a dramatic rate. As a result homelessness has also increased, especially in ‘Bunnypatch’ where the supply of housing wasn’t that plentiful to begin with.

#86 Ken From BC on 08.31.22 at 9:07 pm

Anyone believing that prices are holding steady in Vancouver should look at this site.
https://myrealtycheck.ca/

#87 Faron on 08.31.22 at 9:08 pm

#74 baloney Sandwitch on 08.31.22 at 8:12 pm

So, I think we should be in recession next spring

Wait, I was told by an all-knowing, beyond reproach engineer more than -7 percentage points on the S&P ago that the recession is over. Wud I miss?

#88 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.31.22 at 9:13 pm

BC Fentanyl dead.
10,000 to date since 2016 when a “public emergency” was announced.
The Province admits any govt initiatives have been far outstripped by overdoses and deaths.

#89 Yukon Jack on 08.31.22 at 9:15 pm

https://torontosun.com/news/canada/b-c-is-canadas-favourite-province-but-not-because-of-the-people-poll-finds

Pretty well sums it up. Favorite province by a landslide …. fire or flood! But nobody wants to come to Kelowna according to this blog! And for that, we are grateful!

Cue the steerage section and all of the jelly bellies!

**** But WTF voted for Alberta. I mean, other than Banff, what other redeeming factor is there?

AND I find it hilarious that only a small fraction of maritimers voted for BC…. probably because most have never even been to BC, cant afford to visit or are eternally jealous. I can see why they would be though, having visited all provinces.

#90 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 9:17 pm

For the metal fabricators on this real estate blog, I just finished a fun little project. One problem hunting in the 4Runner is that there is no tailgate for prepping lunch and cleaning birds. Folding tables are hokey, the hood is irregular and using the cooler top puts everything at dog level.

So… the solution: a hitch-mounted folding table. Some 2″ steel, hinges, cedar, plywood, a little metal- and woodwork, some paint and varnish, and we have a 2’x3′ table. A keeper with clevis keeps it folded in transit, then the table flips up, the support gussets fold out and it’s a functional little tabletop. Always fun, these little projects. And they satisfy the soul.

#91 Wrk.dover on 08.31.22 at 9:29 pm

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.31.22 at 6:53 pm
Ah the good old days when our PM would grab a protester by the throat and twist him to the ground….
___________________________________

My favorite image of that same scrawny runt of a man, was of him carrying a stack of two 2-4’s out of a Halifax liquor store, to personally hand deliver to an hospitality suite or something!

I suppose mention of two 2-4’s conjures up visions of Jane and her twin sister in your head though. Good luck falling asleep tonight with that thought dancing through your mind.

#92 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.31.22 at 9:30 pm

I was just thinking.
Garth, eggs were cheap when you were in politics.
Maybe you should give it another shot.
With inflation and the price of eggs these days, the hooligans would think twice.
Same for tomatoes.
Tough times for protesters, like for everyone else.

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.31.22 at 9:30 pm

Ponzie.
As a Landlord.
Are you in favour of your beloved, handsome, curly haired Prime Minister being in direct competition with you…for your renters?

https://globalnews.ca/news/9098027/rent-to-own-canada-housing-affordability/

#94 Doug t on 08.31.22 at 9:34 pm

#76 ponzius

Come on man (or they, them, it, thingy) Grow up – T2 is an embarrassing representative of this country – maybe just maybe be able to manage a kindergarten class …maybe

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.31.22 at 9:39 pm

@#89 Yukon Jack
“I find it hilarious that only a small fraction of maritimers voted for BC….I can see why they would be though, having visited all provinces.”
+++

Perhaps you’ll have to visit Newfoundland with your wife to find out……..

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiaw_y9uvL5AhXrCTQIHTj-Dnk4ChAWegQICRAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.quora.com%2FIn-which-city-of-Canada-do-people-have-the-most-sex&usg=AOvVaw3fyt5H4Ird8Fw__nNirkYF

However…. answer #3 gets “Right Honorable” mention…

#96 Mattl on 08.31.22 at 9:40 pm

If this is halfway through the tightening cycle then equity markets probably have another 15-20% down left to go. So a guy with a 2MM net worth Jan 1, 2022, rule of 90, balanced, will be worth 1.3MM or so Jan 1 2024. That will not be great for a consumer driven economy. Folks are about to realize they aren’t as rich as they think.

This is going to be long and ugly IMO, we are early stages still.

#97 Wrk.dover on 08.31.22 at 9:42 pm

#87 Faron on 08.31.22 at 9:08 pm
#74 baloney Sandwitch on 08.31.22 at 8:12 pm

So, I think we should be in recession next spring

Wait, I was told by an all-knowing, beyond reproach engineer more than -7 percentage points on the S&P ago that the recession is over. Wud I miss?
____________________________

Hey! Back up! You called the floor on S&[email protected] 4650 or somewhere thereabout. This is your second reminder.

But your chum did heavily invest his wife in [email protected]

My memory has always been vivid.

I also remember you and he having the greatest time kicking me around the room when I mixed up the term shroud with fore stay. Like brothers in glee, you and he!

#98 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 9:46 pm

#87 Faron on 08.31.22 at 9:08 pm
#74 baloney Sandwitch on 08.31.22 at 8:12 pm

So, I think we should be in recession next spring

———

Wait, I was told by an all-knowing, beyond reproach engineer more than -7 percentage points on the S&P ago that the recession is over. Wud I miss?

———

Haha, and we were told on August 22 by a climate expert that southeast US was facing total mammal death in a couple of decades. The univ profs found this prediction quite… interesting.

#99 2SLGBTQI+ on 08.31.22 at 9:48 pm

#34 Nora Lenderby on 08.31.22 at 4:55 pm
#22 2SLGBTQI+ on 08.31.22 at 3:53 pm
“…What does IHCTD9 stand for?”

It’s a tractor, dude. As any fule kno.

—-

Tractor.

Tug, pull, plow.

I’m ashamed I didn’t know.

Thanks!

#100 yvr_lurker on 08.31.22 at 9:50 pm

#88 BC Fentanyl dead.
10,000 to date since 2016 when a “public emergency” was announced.
The Province admits any govt initiatives have been far outstripped by overdoses and deaths.
——————

An old friend of mine likely died of it in late 2019. Super-sad, but she has an addict off and on for years and somehow bought something bad inadvertently (she was not addicted to Fentanyl).

I don’t understand why the Gov’t does not put more resources into tracking the distribution of it from China and sneaking in from the airport and ports. Just one of the many problems in our relation with China.

As for the addicts themselves, I am of two minds on this, with one view being they need to try to help themselves a little more…. it would help if the Gov’t provided more micro-units to get them off the street as a first step… quagmire for sure…

Enforcement at the border and with China is an important step that nobody is willing to undertake it seems…

#101 Consumerist Societies on 08.31.22 at 9:51 pm

Putin has Europe scared because…

“Cheap and plentiful energy is essential to our consumerist societies.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/31/putin-has-pulled-shock-win-could-destroy-free-world/

#102 TurnerNation on 08.31.22 at 9:55 pm

It would be blast seeing Trump 2024.
Just to watch millions of Kanadians lose it (further) with an outbreak of TDS Variant B.1.
(For research purposes natch.)

Jim Jones would have had a field day in this country….

#103 DON on 08.31.22 at 9:59 pm

#43 PBrasseur on 08.31.22 at 5:37 pm
Pepe’s pronouncements on monetary policy are bizarre. Demand better. – Garth

He’s still by far the most interesting candidate and nothing I’ve seen so far is better.

********
Great…a little Kenny/Harper. I demand better…not a career poltician with no plan but aying lose with the facts.

#104 Blobby on 08.31.22 at 10:03 pm

“Actually most people want a socially progressive and fiscally conservative country. – Garth”

Raises hand – yeah.. That’s me.

But the modern day Can Con party has become like the UK and US right wing parties – grabbing votes by appealing to people’s biases, general Populism, and outright nonsense.

I’d love to have a party I can actually vote for without holding my nose.

PP definitely isnt it, and after all the nonsense he’s spouted, from vaccines to monetary policy – if he becomes leader, I know where my vote is going again.

#105 fishman on 08.31.22 at 10:09 pm

Hubris: excessive pride & arrogance. I see that in lil potato, the Jaegermeister, Kim Campell, Freeland, Hedy Fry & of course the Trumpster. But I never saw that in Preston Manning. I saw him as a principled man. Much the same as Tommy Douglas. I’ve never met Preston one to one, though I did shake Tommy Douglas’s hand as a 12 year old kid. You’ve dealt with Preston I’m sure Garth? Interesting perspective? I like to think that I’m not easily fooled.

His misdirected pride led him to believe he was moral and others sullied. In the end all he accomplished was to destroy a mainstream right-of-centre party, usher in political polarization and hand us today’s fiscal mess with third-rate, opportunistic leaders. That is hubris. – Garth

#106 Waystar Royco Shareholder on 08.31.22 at 10:21 pm

 Rent the podium on 08.31.22 at 5:41 pm

Meanwhile, here in Victoria, a 2 bedroom duplex just sold for over $1M. Prices seem to be holding

__________________________________________________________

Lol, prices are holding becasue of one supposed overpriced sale?

#107 Doug t on 08.31.22 at 10:25 pm

#102 TurnerNation

Oooooh THAT was gooooood

#108 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 10:37 pm

#97 Wrk.dover on 08.31.22 at 9:42 pm

But your chum did heavily invest his wife in [email protected]

My memory has always been vivid.

I also remember you and he having the greatest time kicking me around the room when I mixed up the term shroud with fore stay. Like brothers in glee, you and he!

———

Lol. I assume you are probably correct about the timing if I mentioned it, but not about me doing the investing for my wife. She does her own investing. Fun fact: we both do the majority of our investing from the kitchen table in the morning over coffee.
It’s like an investing date. Sorta sexy.

About the shroud/forestay thing: you probably deserved it.

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.31.22 at 10:40 pm

@#91 Wrk.dvr
“I suppose mention of two 2-4’s conjures up visions of Jane and her twin sister…”

+++
Two 24’s?
How can the EU handle the Palazzo parties?

************************************
@#100 Yvr
“I don’t understand why the Gov’t does not put more resources into tracking the distribution of it from China and sneaking in from the airport and ports. Just one of the many problems in our relation with China.”

+++
China could crush the Fentanyl Labs in a second.
I think it’s pay back for the opium wars of over 150 years ago.
Chairman Xi and his communist cohorts loathe the West.

#110 Men Guarding on 08.31.22 at 10:53 pm

Okay, let’s say I’m running a small investment company earning my clients (all 5 of them) 71% per year, for the past 3.5 years. First of all, how can I prove it to the public that I’m not running a Ponzi scheme (there really is way too many of those running around these days), and I’m not charging a fee for my managing of thier cash, so how much should I be charging them if they are getting 71% per year returns from my efforts?

#111 DON on 08.31.22 at 11:12 pm

#46 Rent the podium on 08.31.22 at 5:41 pm
Meanwhile, here in Victoria, a 2 bedroom duplex just sold for over $1M. Prices seem to be holding.

********???
What’s the title of this blog? Greater…

Victoria is full of delusional people. The area is one big homeless camp…the downtown is dicey at the best of times. Wear your armour.

#112 Nonplused on 08.31.22 at 11:21 pm

“His misdirected pride led him to believe he was moral and others sullied. In the end all he accomplished was to destroy a mainstream right-of-centre party, usher in political polarization and hand us today’s fiscal mess with third-rate, opportunistic leaders. That is hubris. – Garth”

Well, nothing ever looks as intended in hindsight, does it? And we’ll never know what “could have been”.

It’s like second guessing the Fed. I know, I know, I’ve done it myself. I too think they held rates too low for too long. But what we don’t know is what would have happened had they not held rates down until inflation reared its ugly head. We don’t know. We can’t know. That potential alternate reality didn’t occur, or at least it is unavailable to us for observation. It might have been worse. Possibly much worse.

“The optimist believes that this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears that this might be true.”

Maybe Manning had to happen. The alternative might have been western separation. Probably not, but sentiment was even higher back then than it is now, so who knows? On the other hand maybe nothing would have happened. But here we are.

#113 SmarterSquirrel on 08.31.22 at 11:42 pm

I am one of the ones Garth speaks of. I want a socially progressive fiscally conservative government. The last time we had one in my opinion was under Chretien and Martin. Running a budget surplus and at a tax advantage to parts of the US. I haven’t been able to vote Liberal or Conservative since then. Animal Protection Party of Canada gets my vote until a sensible leadership team is in place at either the Liberal or Conservative Party. But it doesn’t look like that will happen anytime soon. In the meantime a party that wants to protect animals and will never get a seat in government will get my lousy vote.

Been to Halifax lately. Amazing to see the change from listed and sold over asking in the same day early this year to today where nice houses sit for 100 days plus with multiple price drops. Will be interesting to see what happens by the end of the year after a couple more rate increases.

#114 DON on 08.31.22 at 11:53 pm

#100 yvr_lurker on 08.31.22 at 9:50 pm
#88 BC Fentanyl dead.
10,000 to date since 2016 when a “public emergency” was announced.
The Province admits any govt initiatives have been far outstripped by overdoses and deaths.
——————

An old friend of mine likely died of it in late 2019. Super-sad, but she has an addict off and on for years and somehow bought something bad inadvertently (she was not addicted to Fentanyl).

I don’t understand why the Gov’t does not put more resources into tracking the distribution of it from China and sneaking in from the airport and ports. Just one of the many problems in our relation with China.

As for the addicts themselves, I am of two minds on this, with one view being they need to try to help themselves a little more…. it would help if the Gov’t provided more micro-units to get them off the street as a first step… quagmire for sure…

Enforcement at the border and with China is an important step that nobody is willing to undertake it seems…

*******
The provincial gov is opening up beds in Nanaimo was recently announced. But like you said stop it at the ports. What did CSIS say about some politicians (at all levels) and their ties to China.

#115 DON on 08.31.22 at 11:55 pm

@Crowded
China could crush the Fentanyl Labs in a second.
I think it’s pay back for the opium wars of over 150 years ago.
Chairman Xi and his communist cohorts loathe the West.
**********
Yup!

#116 GW on 08.31.22 at 11:57 pm

#44 Quintilian on 08.31.22 at 5:37 pm
“Pepe’s pronouncements on monetary policy are bizarre. Demand better. – Garth”

True, but they are a product of the right, and in line with the Canadian Retrumplican nut bars on this blog.

Unfortunately /(or fortunately), with God’s help Pepe will
be elected as leader.

Harper’s sins have not yet been absolved.
And the conservatives will remain in purgatory I would guess another decade.
______________

Who hurt you?

#117 yvr_lurker on 09.01.22 at 12:03 am

#109
+++
China could crush the Fentanyl Labs in a second.
I think it’s pay back for the opium wars of over 150 years ago.
Chairman Xi and his communist cohorts loathe the West.
——–

I think you have it nailed. We have a porous border to drugs coming from China, and no will/ability to stop it. Triad chieftans living in Shaugnessey in houses bought with laundered money, and people at the end of the food chain dying every day on the streets. Gov’t seems powerless to do anything.

#118 Steve French on 09.01.22 at 12:06 am

Sir Garth!

Is the ultimate financial apocalypse upon us?

Should we all sell everything and bury the cash in our backyards, or our apartment balcony potted plant holders?

Help us Obi-Wan….

SteveO

ENTERING THE SUPERBUBBLE’S FINAL ACT
By Jeremy Grantham

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/entering-the-superbubbles-final-act/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social+&utm_campaign=superbubble

#119 Tam Mctavish on 09.01.22 at 12:37 am

Just finishing off a wee dram (or ten)………on the Robbie Burns theme, would “Nae man can tether time or tide” be equivalent to Lord Keynes’ “in the long run we’re all dead”. I best hold off on that next dram…..

#120 GW on 09.01.22 at 1:02 am

No Garth … that is simply not true. As a former crown attorney, I can tell you that, in Canada, criminal harassment is an unlawful act of bothering a victim in a way that leaves the victim reasonably fearful for their safety. This can include communicating with the victim repeatedly, such as making unwanted phone calls or sending offending emails and text messages. Stalking or following someone, resulting in the victim to fear for their safety is also considered as criminal harassment.

A key element of Crim Harassment is “repeatedly”, as you’ve written above. The section is intended for “stalkers” and spousal’s, etc. A former Crown Council would know this.

#121 Faron on 09.01.22 at 1:41 am

#97 Wrk.dover on 08.31.22 at 9:42 pm
#87 Faron on 08.31.22 at 9:08 pm

Hey! Back up! You called the floor on S&[email protected] 4650

Yep, I was wrong about that. I said as much later.

#122 Faron on 09.01.22 at 1:58 am

#98 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 9:46 pm

Another failure at ignoring me. Good job, you are on a winning streak. And all you had to do was apologize…

I love how each time you bring this up you twist my words a little further. Keep at it chum, pretty soon you’ll have it on good faith that I am predicting an ice age beginning next September. God only knows what you are telling people about me, but it’s almost certainly a radical misrepresentation. Intellectual honesty isn’t your jam apparently, but we knew that.

#97 Wrk.dover on 08.31.22 at 9:42 pm

But your chum did heavily invest his wife in [email protected]

LOL, he also loaded his HELOC at about 4150 SPX. I wouldn’t laugh if he couldn’t afford to be smoked, but he can. So here I am, laughing. Alas, time will tell, probably calling a bottom here with my karmic expenditures of late.

#123 Faron on 09.01.22 at 2:09 am

#98 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 9:46 pm

I’ll add that if you are misrepresenting my words in a way that damages my career in any way, you are toast. I won’t hesitate to sue you.

#124 Faron on 09.01.22 at 2:57 am

#90 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 9:17 pm

Folding tables are hokey

So… the solution: a … folding table

Eureka! Surprising Elon hasn’t hired you yet.

#125 Bileth on 09.01.22 at 3:05 am

With interest rates increasing, why are preferred shares down?

#126 Steven Rowlandson on 09.01.22 at 6:45 am

“But in 2018 the average property price in Toronto was just $782,000 with detached houses fetching $1,350,000.”

Roll it back by dividing it by 20 and then you will have affordability. As for the difference that is inflation and genocidal greed which is by definition expendable.
Rolling it all back is the price of redemption for the offenders. There are other more honest ways of making money .

#127 Wrk.dover on 09.01.22 at 7:23 am

#108 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 10:37 pm
Lol. I assume you are probably correct about the timing if I mentioned it, but not about me doing the investing for my wife. She does her own investing.
_______________________________

I bought SPY on the way down @ 437 and sold @ 430.
It then bottomed around 423 and headed back up….to 430.

Then you posted something to the effect of your wife having a “rather large amount of cash fall onto her lap , so asked my advice on how to invest it, of course I told her to buy SPY. Chaching!!” (At $430 peak, going back down.)

That is how I remember the timing so well. The rather large purchase with such conviction confused me, as my play had been chump change in your circle, but I took it very seriously, couldn’t believe I’d fallen in the bull trap so willingly.

Only the facts, man.

#128 maxx on 09.01.22 at 7:33 am

¨Higher……for longer.¨ :-)))

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.01.22 at 8:34 am

@#119 GW (Former Crown Prosecutor?)
“As a former crown attorney, I can tell you that, in Canada, criminal harassment is an unlawful act of bothering a victim in a way that leaves the victim reasonably fearful for their safety.”

+++

I don’t thank Canadians have a lot of faith in the “justice” system these days.
A toothless tiger with politically correct, Woke overtones.

Ruling in favour of the homeless encampments was a start. The result was our streets and parks turning into a feces, needle, drug infested, crime spree misery factories.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjcjczIy_P5AhWSLH0KHc8SA0YQFnoECBEQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fvancouversun.com%2Fhealth%2Flocal-health%2Fis-help-is-on-the-way-for-people-in-horrendous-homeless-camp-full-of-debris-despair-death&usg=AOvVaw2eOkH4ugGBHhf59mUZzit4

The protesters in Ottawa are being flogged, drawn and quartered publicly.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjl_YCEy_P5AhWZAjQIHQuBC90QFnoECAUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbc.ca%2Fnews%2Fcanada%2Fottawa%2Ftamara-lich-chris-barber-ottawa-trial-freedom-convoy-sept-2023-1.6566730&usg=AOvVaw2pck_sPr8gMmW7QnKHxNvm

And violent, illegal gun owners possessing illegal guns get…..house arrest?

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/assault-style-rifle-with-illegal-magazine-and-no-licence-nets-burnaby-man-house-arrest-5745574

Nope.
The Canadian “disgusted” system has a long , long long way to go to earn back the respect and trust of the majority of citizens in this country.

“Catch and slap on the wrist release” isn’t working.

Perhaps if the politicians actually built more jails for our growing criminal population…..?

Canadian population seems to grow by leaps and bounds every year but I havent heard of any new prisons being built lately?
Anyone else?
Anywhere in Canada?.
Judges could then, gee, i don’t know, jail criminals?

#130 Dharma Bum on 09.01.22 at 8:38 am

“His misdirected pride led him to believe he was moral and others sullied.” – Garth
——————————————————————————————————-

Preston Manning was one of those fundamentalist religious whacked-out-of-his-skull nut cases.

Slick hairdo, though!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-B2SQrKeBetg/TrJ6dNnChMI/AAAAAAAAHLA/BlefwZx9iys/s1600/3109201.jpg

#131 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.01.22 at 8:58 am

#123 Faron on 09.01.22 at 2:57 am

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that you’re more than qualified at damaging any and all careers/relationships on your own ya putz.

#132 Sail Away on 09.01.22 at 9:41 am

#122 Faron on 09.01.22 at 2:09 am
#98 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 9:46 pm

I’ll add that if you are misrepresenting my words in a way that damages my career in any way, you are toast. I won’t hesitate to sue you.

———

Double, double toil and trouble
Fire burn, and cauldron bubble
Double, double toil and trouble
Something wicked this way comes

#133 Quintilian on 09.01.22 at 10:19 am

“His misdirected pride led him to believe he was moral and others sullied.” – Garth

Most Conservatives are sanctimonious, in a moral, social and economic sense.

They have an air of superiority.

With a condescending and patronizing attitude, they assign themselves as the saviors of the flock, screaming from their pulpits how they will make it a better world when they get elected, by declaring they will criminalize vices, and cast away the spendthrifts.

Some of the posts here confirm my observation.

#134 Sail Away on 09.01.22 at 10:23 am

@Wrk.dover

Sure, that makes sense. I do provide advisory services to my wife on sort of a barter system. Works well!

#135 millmech on 09.01.22 at 10:31 am

Nice to see houses in Vernon now below $400k, another small town has houses now listing at just over $300k, if one is patient one can get a nice little house with land for under $200k in the next couple of years.

#136 Faron on 09.01.22 at 10:55 am

Problem with the SAGI in a down market is there’s no entry point. Just cash on the sidelines.

#137 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.01.22 at 10:59 am

115 DON on 08.31.22 at 11:55 pm
@Crowded
China could crush the Fentanyl Labs in a second.
I think it’s pay back for the opium wars of over 150 years ago.
Chairman Xi and his communist cohorts loathe the West.
**********
Yup!
————————
Just that simple, eh?
Nancy said: Just say no!
And what happened?

#138 Don Guillermo on 09.01.22 at 11:00 am

Report says the high employment numbers in Canada are mostly due to additional public sector jobs while public sector service has declined. Private sector employment employment is actually down when adjusted for population growth.

“It is clear that the government sector is dis- proportionately driving Canada’s labour market recovery. Private sector total employment is now only slightly above pre-pandemic levels and once an adjustment is made for population growth, private sector employment is in fact lower than it was in February 2020.”
fraserinstitute.org
FRASER RESEARCH BULLETIN

#139 Faron on 09.01.22 at 11:01 am

#130 ImGonnaBeSick on 09.01.22 at 8:58 am

I love comments in which I read them, check my life’s reality and then just chuckle. Thanks for the opportunity to reflect on how lucky I am to have wonderful people in my life. Cheers! #LoveSickosHate

To wit: had a great time last night with a group of friends taking in the Victoria Fringe (a show about sexist heckling aimed at older women) then retired to a bar for drinks n snax then to the beach for an icy, bioluminescent dip. Polished it off by checking in on a cat I’m watching while another friend is on vacay.

Toodles

#140 Faron on 09.01.22 at 12:15 pm

I think we should all take a moment to mourn the loss of TINA. She was good to us for all those years. She made some rich. She allowed others to retire comfortably. She housed wayward Benjis and Jacks when there were no open doors for them. She kept inflation low and made Fed chairs look like heros by keeping those past, long dead presidential portraits tucked away and unable to run amok and drive up the cost of groceries or dishwashers or Adele concerts.

But now she’s gone. The tenors (all of them) have put her under. RIP TINA, long live TIAA, long live inflation.

#141 GW on 09.01.22 at 12:19 pm

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.01.22 at 8:34 am
@#119 GW (Former Crown Prosecutor?)

_________

No, I was responding to a poster who claimed to be one, I didn’t separate their comments and mine very well. The information the alleged Crown provided was questionable.
Your comment about the Justice system is not entirely invalid.

#142 GOLDENBOY on 09.01.22 at 12:19 pm

4 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 2:03 pm

Oh, that’s a beauty. The perfect setup: open, walk-around, centre console, lightweight. In 30 years, the grandkids will be using that same boat.

My ideal is the exact same layout, just 4′ longer for the smoother ride and big-water capability.
____________

Building one is probably the only way I’d ever get to own one of those welded aluminum beauties. Hideously expensive practical artwork that lasts for decades. I love the tread plate floor and the width of that boat.

He built an 11′ skiff too, beautiful.

————————

Great share, thanks. Agreed on the practicality of these boats – we have a 19′ Lifetimer that I picked up used, and had a local guy weld a cabin on it. Moved the helm forward, and it now has more deck space. Incredibly capable – fishing, multiday outside coast missions, run it up on the beach – you name it. They might look like a floating trash can after they’ve been through the wringer, but….they’re still floating!

————————————————————————————-
Have you seen this Sailboat partially financed by John Gates? I knew him well, he fired me in 2012. One of the best days in my life.
————————————-
The Polar Mist, a 54’ cutter.
Your comment is awaiting moderation.

#143 DON on 09.01.22 at 12:19 pm

#137 Don Guillermo on 09.01.22 at 11:00 am
Report says the high employment numbers in Canada are mostly due to additional public sector jobs while public sector service has declined. Private sector employment employment is actually down when adjusted for population growth.

“It is clear that the government sector is dis- proportionately driving Canada’s labour market recovery. Private sector total employment is now only slightly above pre-pandemic levels and once an adjustment is made for population growth, private sector employment is in fact lower than it was in February 2020.”
fraserinstitute.org
FRASER RESEARCH BULLETIN

************
Ah the FRASER Research….ha ha ha.

The nutty right wing’s source of truth.

#144 Wrk.dover on 09.01.22 at 12:26 pm

#133 Sail Away on 09.01.22 at 10:23 am
@Wrk.dover

Sure, that makes sense. I do provide advisory services to my wife on sort of a barter system. Works well!
_______________________
I suspect double billing there.

#145 chalkie on 09.01.22 at 12:29 pm

The Bank of Canada’s mandate requires it to keep inflation within its 1 per cent to 3 per cent control range as much as possible. Operationally, that has meant aiming for a 2 per cent target. Annual inflation has exceeded the upper band of that range for 16 straight months. Do the Feds thing we are dumb or something, we are light years ahead of them. Given we just had to look at all the facts before us, retail prices.
By the end of 2023, your new mortgage rate will be an easy 7 ½ to 8 ½ percent, it has to happen to control inflation, glad I am not on the end of receiving that for a renewal.

#146 Don Guillermo on 09.01.22 at 12:47 pm

#142 DON on 09.01.22 at 12:19 pm
#137 Don Guillermo on 09.01.22 at 11:00 am
Report says the high employment numbers in Canada are mostly due to additional public sector jobs while public sector service has declined. Private sector employment employment is actually down when adjusted for population growth.

“It is clear that the government sector is dis- proportionately driving Canada’s labour market recovery. Private sector total employment is now only slightly above pre-pandemic levels and once an adjustment is made for population growth, private sector employment is in fact lower than it was in February 2020.”
fraserinstitute.org
FRASER RESEARCH BULLETIN

************
Ah the FRASER Research….ha ha ha.

The nutty right wing’s source of truth.
*******
Great rebuttal. Don’t like the messenger.

#147 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.01.22 at 1:00 pm

140 GW on 09.01.22 at 12:19 pm
#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.01.22 at 8:34 am
@#119 GW (Former Crown Prosecutor?)

_________

No, I was responding to a poster who claimed to be one, I didn’t separate their comments and mine very well. The information the alleged Crown provided was questionable.
Your comment about the Justice system is not entirely invalid.
——————————————-
People are not perfect.
Therefore any system designed by people will not be perfect.
People expecting perfection will always have reasons to complain.

#148 10poi02 on 09.01.22 at 1:05 pm

“Size and gender are irrelevant in political life. ”

that may be so, but size and gender ARE relevant in encounters that may escalate to physical confrontation.

Think of it this way: If it were your wife in the place of Freeland, would you have the same reaction?

With three staff around her? You bet. This is political theatre. Don’t fall for it. – Garth

#149 BIG BEAR on 09.01.22 at 1:05 pm

Powell had a choice, keep supporting offshore USD (via Euro) or save the Fed

The dollars are coming home and chasing fewer goods

Option 1 – Hyperinflation and rioting
Option 2 – Tightening, Depression and rioting

Option 2 saves the Fed much to the chagrin of the colonial owners/powers best represented these days by the WEF

There will be pain and it will get ugly – buckle up

#150 jess on 09.01.22 at 1:07 pm

16 Robert B on 08.31.22 at 3:25 pm
…”Time has proved that the central bank can best function in these capacities by remaining independent from government fiscal policy and therefore uninfluenced by the political concerns of any regime. A central bank should also be completely divested of any commercial banking interests. “https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/050703.asp

#151 The Addict, Same as It Ever Was on 09.01.22 at 1:13 pm

#122 Faron on 09.01.22 at 2:09 am
#98 Sail Away on 08.31.22 at 9:46 pm

I’ll add that if you are misrepresenting my words in a way that damages my career in any way, you are toast. I won’t hesitate to sue you.

=====================================

Sounds positively…Trumpian. Maybe you and Freeland could form a support group for the ultra-thin-skinned. Sit in a circle, hold hands, sob, the whole 9 yards.

Say, how’s that internet addiction going? Is 10+ posts today considered a relapse?

#152 Squire on 09.01.22 at 1:17 pm

#132 Quintilian on 09.01.22 at 10:19 am
“His misdirected pride led him to believe he was moral and others sullied.” – Garth

Most Conservatives are sanctimonious, in a moral, social and economic sense.

They have an air of superiority.

With a condescending and patronizing attitude, they assign themselves as the saviors of the flock, screaming from their pulpits how they will make it a better world when they get elected, by declaring they will criminalize vices, and cast away the spendthrifts.

Some of the posts here confirm my observation.
———————————————————
What an amazing observation #132 Quintilian. You described our PM quite well.

#153 DON on 09.01.22 at 1:31 pm

#136 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.01.22 at 10:59 am
115 DON on 08.31.22 at 11:55 pm
@Crowded
China could crush the Fentanyl Labs in a second.
I think it’s pay back for the opium wars of over 150 years ago.
Chairman Xi and his communist cohorts loathe the West.
**********
Yup!
————————
Just that simple, eh?
Nancy said: Just say no!
And what happened?

********
I said NO!

Where they is s will there is a way.

#154 Not Enough! on 09.01.22 at 1:36 pm

“But in 2018 the average property price in Toronto was just $782,000 with detached houses fetching $1,350,000. So if those values were to reappear in 2024, the peak-to-trough declines would be 41% for the market as a whole and 35% for detached.”

Still not enough!

Don’t prices usually over current after a bubble bursts,
or a Reversion to the Mean?

I’ve asked before and I ask again. Does anyone have a graph that shows what Reversion to the Mean would look like for the Canadian housing market? Would love to see a n updated version of it.

#155 Shawn on 09.01.22 at 1:37 pm

Building Permits – Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

StatsCan just reported building permits. Their headline is permits were down 6.6% in July versus June mostly due to a residential sector decline.

Lost in that message is that July this year was 9.6% higher than July of last year with residential up 6.7%.

I guess we gotta focus on the negative trend since June of this year. But there is still nice growth year over year.

Alberta residential building permits were up 31% and non-residential permits were up 81%. But residential was down 1% since June of this year with non-residential up 29%. Not exactly gloomy in this booming province.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220901/dq220901a-eng.htm?CMP=mstatcan

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220901/t002a-eng.htm

#156 Nonplused on 09.01.22 at 1:43 pm

#142 DON on 09.01.22 at 12:19 pm
#137 Don Guillermo on 09.01.22 at 11:00 am
Report says the high employment numbers in Canada are mostly due to additional public sector jobs while public sector service has declined. Private sector employment employment is actually down when adjusted for population growth.

“It is clear that the government sector is dis- proportionately driving Canada’s labour market recovery. Private sector total employment is now only slightly above pre-pandemic levels and once an adjustment is made for population growth, private sector employment is in fact lower than it was in February 2020.”
fraserinstitute.org
FRASER RESEARCH BULLETIN

************
Ah the FRASER Research….ha ha ha.

The nutty right wing’s source of truth.

——————————————

So, Don, do you dispute the findings presented by the Frazer institute? Do you have access to an alternate finding? Are you willing to share it with us?

#157 Gravy Train on 09.01.22 at 2:36 pm

#156 Nonplused on 09.01.22 at 1:43 pm
So, Don, do you dispute the findings presented by the Frazer institute? Do you have access to an alternate finding? Are you willing to share it with us?

How about Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, July 2022?
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220805/dq220805a-eng.htm

#158 DON on 09.01.22 at 3:48 pm

#156 Nonplused on 09.01.22 at 1:43 pm
#142 DON on 09.01.22 at 12:19 pm
#137 Don Guillermo on 09.01.22 at 11:00 am
Report says the high employment numbers in Canada are mostly due to additional public sector jobs while public sector service has declined. Private sector employment employment is actually down when adjusted for population growth.

“It is clear that the government sector is dis- proportionately driving Canada’s labour market recovery. Private sector total employment is now only slightly above pre-pandemic levels and once an adjustment is made for population growth, private sector employment is in fact lower than it was in February 2020.”
fraserinstitute.org
FRASER RESEARCH BULLETIN

************
Ah the FRASER Research….ha ha ha.

The nutty right wing’s source of truth.

——————————————

So, Don, do you dispute the findings presented by the Frazer institute? Do you have access to an alternate finding? Are you willing to share it with us?

*****
Just maybe the public sector openings are replacing a lot of people retiring and people moving to the higher paying private sector jobs??

No one seemed to care that our pubic sector nurses etc were falling behind in the last 10 years while the private sector experienced a boom.

It must have been the nut bar comment that triggered some folks. Who funds the Fraser Institute and the CDN Tax payer organizations?

#159 callmemit on 09.02.22 at 8:12 am

Remember 0 down mortgages in Canada? Remember the $200 billion in mortgage CMHC (us) took off the Canadian Banks hands in the last global meltdown? Remember when those same banks bought foreign banks because they were at distressed prices instead of introducing liquidity to the market? We are not being led we are being marketed to. Housing crisis? – Builder smaller homes.