Downhill

Anyone thinking money would be cheaper in 2023 had better disabuse themselves. Ain’t happening. In fact we now know – absolutely and completely – rates haven’t peaked. The Fed says so. As we mutter every day on Bay Street, never fight the Fed. You’ll lose. Miserably.

On the weekend BMO economists said they see rates bloating another 125 bips – 1.25% above current levels – by the end of the year. If the Bank of Canada follows (it will), the prime rate at the chartered banks will be just a chin hair under 6%; HELOCs will be 6.5-7%. Almost 100,000 families with variable rate mortgages will have passed a trigger point, with monthly payments rising sharply. Don’t even ask about your Visa card.

As you know, the next moment of truth comes a week Wednesday, when our CB will add at least 50 and possibly 75 basis points to its benchmark. Some people suggest it will even do the full Monty 1%, as happened last time. That would be extreme, resulting in many, many realtors needing to change their shorts.

After that the Fed chimes in with its hike September 21st. Again, it will be 50 or 75. This may result in the economy slowing, unemployment rising from its rock-bottom level and wage gains stopping in their tracks. That’s why the stock market laid a big one on Friday when CB boss Jay Powell gave a 6-minute speech that changed everything. A thousand points on the Dow (3%) went poof.

You see, lots of people have been snorting hopium, convincing themselves monetary authorities are filled with marshmallows and duck feathers, and would soon fold or pivot. Surely they would not let the economy stagger or force companies into layoffs, they said, not with US midterm elections coming , a dirty European war raging, supply chain wonkiness, Covid in China plus global energy and food insecurity. Oh, and did we mention the Danube running dry, Lake Mead emptying and record temps everywhere?

In short, why would Powell and our guy Tiff (and 88 other CBs around the world) be so persnickety about rising prices? Don’t we have enough to fret about?

Apparently not. The Friday speech at Jackson Hole was unequivocal. Uppa she goes.

Powell channeled Paul Volcker in his talk, as in his actions. For you kiddos with no idea who PV was, it’s time to learn. The cigar-chomping, larger-than-life, hulking Wall Streeter took over the Fed in 1979 and ran it until the late 80s. He inherited serious stagflation – romping prices and lousy economic growth – plus a Fed that had been far too mousey.

Volcker raised the Fed rate from 11% to 17.5% (this helped push Canadian mortgages above 20%) and it wasn’t until 1985 that inflation was finally brought under control. That is what Volcker’s remembered for – being a complete hardass. And winning.

So here’s what Powell said, making it abundantly clear he, also, wishes to be a bad boy:

History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.”

Now what?

The next big deal is this Friday’s employment report in the States, then the subsequent inflation report. These will help determine the size of the coming hike in Washington. It will also come after our central bank moves. The key message is that central bankers are in it to win it. Rates will not come down because people can’t afford debt payments or the housing market is tanking – it’s all about inflation now. Without serious and sustained decreases in the cost of living, the cost of funds will keep ascending.

This is not what the stock market wants, and July’s party-gains could continue to be rolled back. That would not surprise. But we know why, and we know the outcome. Stay invested. Never sell into a storm. Markets always recover. They survived Volker. They will survive these guys.

Housing?

Things will get worse for sellers. Not much doubt of that. Mortgage rates seem destined to augment further and the anybody-can-get-a-job employment market will weaken. Not only could all the Covid gains be erased, but 50% price reductions from the early-2022 peak may be commonplace in those places where buyers lost their minds and sellers made out like bandits. You know who you are. And where you bought.

“It’s all downhill for prices for a while,” says BMO.

 

136 comments ↓

#1 Chaddywack on 08.28.22 at 2:07 pm

Still Delusional in Vancouver here….

My lovely massage therapist has told me she has several realtor clients who are frustrated that sellers are just outright refusing to lower prices at their recommendations. The common theme from sellers is that interest rate increases don’t matter because “Once Covid is over the Asian buyers will flood back in and buy in cash so mortgage rates don’t matter” and “well rates started going up in 2019 and then the government just brought them down again.”

I saw a mortgage broker a few weeks ago too (just kicking the tires, I have no intention to buy for at least a year) and she told me variables are around 4.4% now but she said “Oh but don’t worry this 4.4% amount will likely go down again next year” hahah right. Don’t blame her, she’s a saleswoman, but still……if this is what the common thought is out there we are in for a long and slow decline……

Also I’ve never seen so much construction activity in Vancouver. In my westside neighbourhood it seems like every 2nd lot (exaggeration, but not by much) is now torn down or under construction…..you’d never even know there was any rate increase!

Interesting times…..

#2 PeterfromCalgary on 08.28.22 at 2:14 pm

Getting high inflation down in a time of constrained supply of labour, computer chips, food and fuel will require harsh medicine. Powell’s speech was a reality check!

#3 Quintilian on 08.28.22 at 2:23 pm

What is truly shocking is that deleveraging has not even begun.

No one from Main Street has received the memo, and so the HELOC’s are still growing at record pace, and Mortgage debt keeps rising by millions per hour.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#4 Shawn on 08.28.22 at 2:29 pm

Similarly, … “House prices always recover” ?

Historically, yes. But it takes much, much longer and those who leveraged to buy are seriously impacted. People by financial assets (preponderately) with cash. – Garth

#5 Søren Angst on 08.28.22 at 2:29 pm

Keep being you.

#6 Upenuff on 08.28.22 at 2:29 pm

Yikes, interesting times ahead for all of us…. actually for those on this blog, cannot say we did not see this coming.

Upenuff

#7 Canadian One on 08.28.22 at 2:30 pm

Good Afternoon Garth,

Had the Volcker rule, as it was initially enacted, been kept intact we arguably wouldn’t have come to pass 07-08 housing/market crash. Over the years the rule was diluted to allow the gamblers take over at the highest of the financial food chain. The world is still reeling from that catastrophe in many a ways.

Nice post. Keep up the good work.

#8 Paddy on 08.28.22 at 2:35 pm

Interesting photo today. I’ve never seen a “going to jail” sale.
That Volcker guy meant business. Hopefully the Fed ain’t bluffing. Needs to happen. Don’t look at the portfolio till end of year. Some people gnna get a hurt real bad if the fed follows through.

#9 jess on 08.28.22 at 2:36 pm

Allegedly, the frog is not able to detect the gradual increase in temperature until it’s too late.

restore the balance, widen the Gaussian curve?

#10 Cash is King on 08.28.22 at 2:47 pm

Let ‘er rip. Get ready for face ripping rate hikes until they hurt.

#11 Work and Tumble on 08.28.22 at 2:47 pm

Nice to see everything back to normally on the blog today, We are focused on the interest rate if you skipped the topic. (Downhill)
I will be moderating the comments today so keep your dog bowls clean, if you step out of line Dog help you.

#12 mj on 08.28.22 at 2:48 pm

they are also saying more aggressive QT in September. Everything should be coming down if they continue.

#13 Linda on 08.28.22 at 2:50 pm

I had noted the sharp drop in the Dow post Fed talk. Did wonder a bit why the markets freaked – I had been naively thinking that the markets were on board with further increases in the prime rate & had factored that into their thinking. So if they were expecting more increases, why the freak out? Powell had, I thought, already clearly signaled the intent to continue increasing rates prior to the latest speech. I suppose the fact the latest inflation figures were slightly lower than the previous month may have led some to think the Fed would dial back, but nothing I read in the headlines led me to believe folks actually thought the Fed wouldn’t continue to raise rates. So I’m puzzled by the reaction.

#14 Concerned Citizen on 08.28.22 at 2:58 pm

If Powell has truly looked at the historical record, he ought to know that the policy rate will likely have to exceed the rate of inflation in order to bring it under control. The U.S. policy rate is currently 2.5%, and headline CPI remains well north of 8%. The core number isn’t as bad, but still above 5%. Even if we see another 1% added on by year-end, the rate will likely remain highly accommodating. Meanwhile, for no good reason, the so-called quantitative tightening hasn’t really even begun. They print trillions at a drop of a pin, but can’t even taper modestly with inflation raging. Funny how that works.

If you look at Powell’s track record in the big job, he’s been extremely dovish. Now one small speech hasn’t convinced me he’s suddenly got the stones to stop the speculation/rent-seeking/bubble-mania his monetary policy – and that of Bernanke and Yellen preceding him – has enabled. He has shown little tolerance for pain to asset holders. Pain on Main Street appears to be quite a different matter of course.

A truly hawkish stance must entail pain to asset holders – stock portfolios, home prices, etc. Heaven forbid, meme stocks and cryptos might get hit too! The horror!

Powell and the Tiffster ought to raise rates to the 4-5% range and keep them there for a few years. But I suspect they’ll raise them to ~3% , and in the very next breath cut them back to zero and resume the quantitative easing. Gotta keep the bubbles afloat – and continue stimulating tent city formation. I hope I’m wrong, but expect to be proven right.

#15 KrisTea on 08.28.22 at 3:07 pm

So, if not yet invested…get invested…but if nearing retirement (not ending working, just focus)15 years away… would there be multiple years of loss? Even in a B&D portfolio? I can’t afford to remain out…or in… if trying to navigate on my own. Not educated when it comes to investment literacy. Reached out for support but posting in case others are in my situation.

Fifteen years is a l-o-n-g time. Rates will be moderating in a year or two. What a good time to invest – now. – Garth

#16 Søren Angst on 08.28.22 at 3:21 pm

Update on EU and oh man, Deutschland.

Like the US Fed, I never, ever bet against Germany.

They managed, now get this, since Apr/May to lower their dependence on Russian nat gas from over 34-37% to just

9%

this past month.

If you think that is incredible, this Winter they will have 2 TWO floating LNG terminals in Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel ready for THIS WINTER.

Anyone in the Engineering, Procurement & Construction industry that has designed and constructed gas plants, oil refineries and the like will tell you that is near miraculous.

Willkommen in Deutschland.

One thing that struck me reading the article below is how EUROPA’s countries have congealed into a single unit intent on helping the greater good, the European Union. Even the little P!SS ANT countries economically vs. the EU G3 like Norway, The Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, etc. are pitching in – in a big way.

https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/gaslieferungen-deutschland-101.html

———————-

Europa will not bow to you Putin and GRAZIE Vladimir for unifying us into a SINGLE state of nations like never before.

Heck, maybe I won’t freeze this Winter in Italia after all?

Maybe an EU recession this Winter will not be that bad?

SLAVA UKRAINI.
[Our sacrifice is miniscule to yours and I for one will “do whatever it takes” until you are free from Russian tyranny]

#17 Robert Ash on 08.28.22 at 3:24 pm

It will be painful, but long overdue. Emergency rates distort the necessary equilibrium, in the Credit markets. Time to invest in companies with profit generating results, and good business plans. Business controls, management, and future enterprise must take into their plans, the cost of Capital. Our future depends, on fair and equitable returns, for those making money and those lending it… or depositing it and making it available to the credit markets. Time to recognize all real costs. Pension funds future retirement plans all affect us, and we need honest reporting and returns.

#18 NewWest on 08.28.22 at 3:25 pm

I’m watching two places up here in Courtenay on the island. One a new build, tiny subdivided lot in town, 1700 some odd square foot two storey house. On the market 101 days, one price reduction from 945k to 895k early on but now stubbornly holding. From the look of the place I think it’s intended as an AirBnB.

The other is a 1920s workers cottage, 800 sq ft, renovated. (Says it’s three bedrooms but hard to imagine, unfinished basement, and I would check the pipes.) Started at 899k in early July, now relisted at 749k.

It will be interesting to see if the prices move again after the BoC raises rates in September. Something has to happen. I mean, how long can you carry the costs of these places without renting them out? And these are ridiculous prices for the north Island, by the way, by any historical measure.

#19 John on 08.28.22 at 3:37 pm

Vancouver Island prices have barely budged. Many places still asking above assessed value last year.

#20 Philco on 08.28.22 at 3:39 pm

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz
LOL

Ya I hated school. That guy was this idiot my Mom whipped his Azz. An abusive teach.
Just got my income up to $400,000 with my new project rocking.
That’s all that matters CEF, financial freeddom to do as one chooses and to not to be encumbered buy silly things like inflation and debt slavery.

#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.28.22 at 3:44 pm

@#1 caddywack
” I’ve never seen so much construction activity in Vancouver…..”

+++
The developers that have half a brain must be crapping their pants with new or half finished projects.

Early 80’s Vancouver was the same. Crazy construction. Lots of jobs…
Then inflation and interest rate hikes.
12 months later.
Crickets.
For about 5 years.
That’s when the Union busting in BC started.
Kerkhoff Construction was front and center in the news.

#22 The real Kip (Ret) on 08.28.22 at 3:48 pm

With inflation at 8% the incentive is borrow more cheap money. The spread is as wide as ever and the Fed/BoC need to grow a set.

#23 Tony on 08.28.22 at 4:00 pm

Re: #13 Linda on 08.28.22 at 2:50 pm

Some unknown person or entity started a rumour that Powell would pivot on interest rates this September. It looks a lot less likely after his Jackson Hole speech. The market rallied on the gasoline tax cut as it coincidentally is the main component in the CPI.

#24 Boomer busted on 08.28.22 at 4:10 pm

#19 Theory of Everything on 08.27.22 at 1:19 pm
#8 Kootenay Dave

You ask a lot of questions Dave.

I am also 40 something.

I can only tell you how I see it.

There is a divide.

The pitchforks were going to come up.

Covid is the perfect fear/control mechanism to delay what many wealthy already felt was going to be a revolution. It has perhaps been delayed, but I think it is still in the forecast and in the upcoming act.

Notice how those in charge (Boomers) punished those at lowest risk (Young people).

Young people were punished in the most ridiculous ways possible. I realized it right away. The young are realizing it now. They won’t forget. Why shouldn’t they hold a grudge?

____________

Garth, I’m surprised you didn’t comment on this one yesterday…

Those poor young people … “punished in the most ridiculous way.”

It must have been torture for them the way they make it sound. Having to make concessions to save their parents and grandparents. In retrospect, I guess we should have just punished older people … because youth lasts forever and they will never get old.

#25 Freedom First on 08.28.22 at 4:10 pm

Thank goodness everyone had your free information Garth, and will, to achieve financial security by always staying balanced, diversified, and liquid, to maintain financial peace, in a world which is sometimes unsettled! You, Dorothy, and your staff always keep a tight, smooth sailing ship! Bless you!

#26 Caffeine Monkey on 08.28.22 at 4:15 pm

The MMT people out there are crying that this is a conspiracy by the Fed to cause a recession ON PURPOSE because workers are getting paid too much and they want to keep labor in its subservient place. Uh huh. Well, how else are you supposed to lower inflation without increasing rates? The MMT people have no answer.

#27 Parksville Prankster on 08.28.22 at 4:39 pm

Here in the bustling twin cities of Parksville/Qualicum, real estate sales seem to have frozen up for the most part. Sellers won’t budge, buyers seem unwilling to over pay, and the result is a frozen market with expired listings.

A local Realtor told me that sales will definitely ramp up in the fall once buyers accept the new price floor, and prices restart their climb up .

I dunno, seems like there’s not much motivation on either buyers or sellers sides.

#28 Yukon Elvis on 08.28.22 at 4:42 pm

#16 Søren Angst on 08.28.22 at 3:21 pm

Update on EU and oh man, Deutschland.

Like the US Fed, I never, ever bet against Germany.

They managed, now get this, since Apr/May to lower their dependence on Russian nat gas from over 34-37% to just

9%

this past month.

If you think that is incredible, this Winter they will have 2 TWO floating LNG terminals in Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel ready for THIS WINTER.
+++++++++++++++++

Germany will open a first LNG terminal by the end of this year, and at the beginning of the next year it will open a second one. They plan to install six LNG terminals over the next year. Germany is already so used to the fact that it will never be able to return to the relations that it had with the Russians before Feb. 24 .

#29 Doing my Part on 08.28.22 at 4:46 pm

Put away your Crack and Hopium pipe.
Don’t let people fool you by saying Victoria and Vancouver Island prices are not moving down, they are.
Probably given back half of the Covid bump, the other half by sometime in 2023.
Never use BC government assessment as a price guide, they are totally out to lunch.

#30 KuatoLives on 08.28.22 at 4:48 pm

Unless we’ve entered some new golden age of investing, I’m unsure how an S&P running at twice its Shiller PE vs it’s historical mean is a good investment opportunity. It has a long bloody way to fall yet.

#31 Reality is stark on 08.28.22 at 4:48 pm

From the financial post:
“When we look at total government debt rather than net debt — which essentially removes the assets of the CPP and QPP — Canada’s relative indebtedness is among the worst in the industrialized world. In 2019, it was 86.8 per cent of GDP, which ranked 24th among 31 industrialized countries. Only seven — Belgium, France, Italy, Japan, Portugal, Spain and the U.S. — had a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than Canada. The IMF expects us to remain 24th in 2021, though our debt will reach 109.9 per cent of GDP.”
We will pivot. The central bankers will try and talk inflation down with rhetoric.
But ultimately debt does the talking.
They won’t stand for people jumping out of buildings no matter how necessary that might be.

#32 Doing my Part on 08.28.22 at 4:50 pm

Oh yeah,
It isn’t different this time and,
Isn’t it interesting how bitcoin is now following financial markets up and down, I thought it was the anti-market store of wealth, I think it’s going to zero.
Get out while you can.

#33 Joseph R on 08.28.22 at 4:51 pm

Caffeine Monkey on 08.28.22 at 4:15 pm
The MMT people out there are crying that this is a conspiracy by the Fed to cause a recession ON PURPOSE because workers are getting paid too much and they want to keep labor in its subservient place. Uh huh. Well, how else are you supposed to lower inflation without increasing rates? The MMT people have no answer.

———————————————-

You are confusing your crowds: MMT e economists want fiscal policies with little monetary policies. To control inflation, they suggest two deflationary fiscal policies: end government deficit spending and increase taxes .

As far as conspiracy theories about the FED, you will meet that in the extreme right, conservative circles.

Their belief is that central bankers, like the FED and the Bank of Canada, are conspiring against blue and white collar workers to help Jewish elites and make minorities dependant on government handouts.

#34 Linda on 08.28.22 at 4:59 pm

#23 ‘Tony’ – thanks for the information:) I wonder if whoever started said rumor made $ off the market? Of course, that would mean they could accurately predict how things would pan out…..

#35 Bob in Hamilton on 08.28.22 at 5:04 pm

Powell is no Volcker…

..he’ll blink.

#36 Penny Henny on 08.28.22 at 5:11 pm

#53 Shawn on 08.27.22 at 6:01 pm
High Interest Savings Accounts?

Okay, so the Bank of Canada overnight rate is 2.50%.

And meanwhile you can now get 2.25% on cash in your brokerage account. For example at TD you buy TDB 8150 under the mutual fund area and you are effectively putting your cash into a bank account that pays almost as much as the Bank of Canada rate. You can access the money immediately to buy stocks but there is a small penalty if you access it within 30 days.
///////////////////////

No fees for under 30 days Shawn.
I can attest to that, used it back in June for two week period.
Read the fine print on TD website

#37 The General on 08.28.22 at 5:15 pm

# 16- Soren angst has snorted mega-hopium, as far as the unbathed(and liking it) Eurotrash countries are concerned. How are those record breaking power prices working out for ya’ll? Canada would love to sell you lots of L.N.G., but we have no export facilities.
Your future rebuttal:
“Yeah, well, you know, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.” – The Dude

#38 Victor Llearna on 08.28.22 at 5:17 pm

Those stupid sheep that over paid for houses in bunnypatch back in Feb are going to learn a lesson when their house drops below 50% what they paid.
A well deserved lesson. Bahhhh, just wait till its time to renew that mortgage..

#39 Reality Check on 08.28.22 at 5:26 pm

Things will get worse for sellers.
————————

But sellers have not realized that yet. A couple of people I know want to cash out of Victoria but are balking at having to sell in the current market. They are going to wait until interest rates come back down again to “normal” levels – you know the ultra low emergency rates we have been living with for the past decade+.

People do not understand that current interest rates are at the low end of long term average rates (and that’s excluding the high rate years of the 1970s and 1980s). Normal long term mortgage rates have been 5-8%, not 1.5-3%.

We may eventually see panic selling as people realize rates are not going back to emergency levels. The realization then may be “sell this month before prices drop further”. And on the other side would be reluctant buyers holding out thinking there may be better deals in a month or two.

Yes, hard to believe that could ever happen. But the bloated Canadian housing market has been a never ending series of “hard to believes” for the last 15-20 years.

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.28.22 at 5:29 pm

@#20 Sgt Philco
“Just got my income up to $400,000 with my new project rocking”

++++
Nice.
Well done.
3 words to live buy.
Legal Tax avoidance.

BC Liquor stores are emptying out.
The strike is starting to bite.

#41 The General on 08.28.22 at 5:31 pm

# 16 soren angst- If you Euopeons are so united and congealed (blood is thicker than water), why do you call your fellow citizens from Norway, the Netherlands, Spain and Belgium piss-ant countries? Canada has lots of wood to sell you, if you get cold come January. And coal. Does Greta approve?

#42 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.28.22 at 5:32 pm

@#27 Prankster
“A local Realtor told me that sales will definitely ramp up in the fall once buyers accept the new price floor, and prices restart their climb up .”

++++
Odd.
And here I always thought Summer was their busiest season.
or.
As they say in Scotland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzG_J7RCGS0

#43 AM in MN on 08.28.22 at 5:35 pm

They never should have printed so much money in the first place.

I’m not holding my breath that the Fed or BoC doesn’t blink first. Sound money means discipline and I don’t see any political leaders in power that have it. They can overrule their CBs. Volker was backed up by Reagan who understood the need for sound money.

Best hope for sound money in Canada is PP as PM, and a new BoC Gov., but that’s still a couple years away.

#44 Alberta Ed on 08.28.22 at 5:42 pm

I watched a blond lady realtor interviewed on TV recently who blithely advised that all young people have to do is to raise a down payment from somewhere (Mom), invest in say, a cheaper condo, wait until housing prices rebound, then sell for a huge profit and buy a semi-detached. She didn’t mention a time line. Had a nice smile, though. Like a crocodile.

#45 Richard on 08.28.22 at 5:54 pm

So Biden has signed the $740 billion Orwellian named “Inflation Reduction Act” into law. This is a massive spending bill that going to cause more massive inflation in spite of the name. The FED’s increases are going to do nothing against inflation, but it will decimate the middle class. Which might be their intention.

#46 Sent Nor Gas on 08.28.22 at 5:59 pm

#28 Yukon Elvis

Oh sure…but at what cost?

>
The Economist’s Christian Odendahl, at present prices Germany will need to spend 8.4 per cent of its GDP on gas. Hitherto it was just 1 per cent.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/28/how-decades-complacency-have-left-germany-facing-cold-dark-winter/

#47 Saint Herb on 08.28.22 at 6:00 pm

“50% price reductions from the early-2022 peak may be commonplace”

Still not enough!

Reversion to the mean is needed.

#48 Theory of Everything on 08.28.22 at 6:14 pm

#24 Boomer busted

Garth, I’m surprised you didn’t comment on this one yesterday…

Those poor young people … “punished in the most ridiculous way.”

It must have been torture for them the way they make it sound. Having to make concessions to save their parents and grandparents. In retrospect, I guess we should have just punished older people … because youth lasts forever and they will never get old.

____________

Sweet mercy, you won’t let it go Boomer busted, will you?

No personal insults or shots today? No bragging?

Now you’re complaining to the our Moderator?

Personal attacks let me know I’m near bullseye, but crying to Garth? BULLSEYE!

Handle your own discussion Boomer, no need to cry to customer support.

The post mortem is being done on the lockdowns, restrictions, liberty and freedom violations, and it’s getting mighty hard to put lipstick on this pig – the young were absolutely thrown under the bus for no reason, and continue to be. The young won’t forget. The remember the leaders throwing them under the bus. The media. They remember the advice with no scientific basis.

Are you really going to sit there in front of your keyboard and rebel agains the young, who were certainly violated educationally, economically, mental health wise – to name the three biggies – while completely ignoring the realities of the total and complete incompetence in protecting the elderly by our leaders and politicians? The social media discussion account suspensions.

Spare me your fake outrage.

If you’re looking to land your aimless airplane of outrage somewhere, how about land it at the feet of our leaders country wide, who allowed time after time AFTER TIME for Long Term Care homes, where our most vulnerable reside, to be completed gutted over and over and OVER again.

And when emotionally scared front line military personnel asked to frontline these places pointed out that they witnessed deaths which were the result of fragile elderly who needed help feeding themselves and that many died of huger and thirst due to neglect – the silencing machine to shut that narrative down could not have been deployed fast enough.

#49 Penny Henny on 08.28.22 at 6:27 pm

#36 Penny Henny on 08.28.22 at 5:11 pm
#53 Shawn on 08.27.22 at 6:01 pm
High Interest Savings Accounts?

Okay, so the Bank of Canada overnight rate is 2.50%.

And meanwhile you can now get 2.25% on cash in your brokerage account. For example at TD you buy TDB 8150 under the mutual fund area and you are effectively putting your cash into a bank account that pays almost as much as the Bank of Canada rate. You can access the money immediately to buy stocks but there is a small penalty if you access it within 30 days.
///////////////////////

No fees for under 30 days Shawn.
I can attest to that, used it back in June for two week period.
Read the fine print on TD website

///////////////

I meant to say no penalties. There is no minimum holding period.

#50 NOSTRADAMUS on 08.28.22 at 6:28 pm

FINALLY, VINDICATED.
I have talked about the consequences regarding the withdrawal of liquidity for so long, that I’m getting really tired of hearing myself ramble on and on about it.
If there is one thing that supports my opinion over the past few days that has proven beyond a shadow of doubt, is that when it comes to risk prices, (stocks and real estate) only one thing matters- not fundamentals, nor political risks, nor earnings forecasts. Nope – the only thing that truly matters is how much liquidity is being generated or drained by the Fed at any given moment. Alarmingly, it has been strongly suggested that I should probably avoid driving in a convertible down Wall Street for a few months. New point- I’m starting to think maybe, just maybe, the real estate cartel hasn’t been telling the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth regarding the direction of real estate values moving forward. Are you not entertained???

#51 Yukon Elvis on 08.28.22 at 6:42 pm

#37 The General on 08.28.22 at 5:15 pm
# 16- Soren angst has snorted mega-hopium, as far as the unbathed(and liking it) Eurotrash countries are concerned. How are those record breaking power prices working out for ya’ll? Canada would love to sell you lots of L.N.G., but we have no export facilities.
+++++++++
There is one under construction now at Squamish B.C. Enbridge is a partner

#52 Yukon Elvis on 08.28.22 at 6:44 pm

#46 Sent Nor Gas on 08.28.22 at 5:59 pm
#28 Yukon Elvis

Oh sure…but at what cost?
++++++++++++
The cost will be cheaper that having Putin bend them over.

#53 The General on 08.28.22 at 6:48 pm

House prices are dropping worldwide. I personally wouldn’t be buying a house in the soon to be cold and dark rump of EurAsia(aka western europe). Unless the price is right. Give it 6 more months before buying your villa in the alps at bargain basement prices.
“The Dude abides” – The Dude

#54 the Jaguar on 08.28.22 at 6:51 pm

“That is what Volcker’s remembered for – being a complete hardass. And winning.” – GT++

Well, seriously. What’s not to admire about that?

Jaguar will go out on a limb (given I am living there 99% of the time) and predict the increase will be 1.00% for the Fed and minimum .75% from the Tiffster, but also possibly 1.00%.

Sound too aggressive? Maybe, but remember the bleatings and admonishment that followed after the .25% in March 2022. That limp move put everthing and everybody behind the eight ball. Now almost six months have passed with measures such as the release of 1 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves and the 2% target rate still appears on the horizon like an mirage in the desert. It’s ‘shock and awe’ time for the Fed, and the short and succinct delivery of Powell’s speech was a shot across the bow. Peeps be warned.

In the final analysis Powell can’t risk going 15 rounds in the ring given the commodity market volatility, supply chain unknowns, and employment numbers. He needs to deliver the knock out punch and let markets know he means business.

The mid terms hardly matter as the Dem’s have brought a world of trouble to their own door and their hides cannot be saved under any circumstances. Time to burn the house down.

o.k., back to making Tripolini Bolognese…

#55 Brian on 08.28.22 at 7:05 pm

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#56 45north on 08.28.22 at 7:06 pm

it took a long time for inflation to go up. The government dumped billions of borrowed money into the economy and inflation barely went up. Nobody noticed. The government dumped more money and inflation went up a little more. People started to notice. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates to bring inflation down but raising rates brings pain. Housing has crashed and it’s going to crash harder. A lot of people are getting hurt.

Politicians have had a free ride. Ride’s over.

#57 Brian on 08.28.22 at 7:14 pm

#48 Theory of Everything

You hit the nail on the head Theory of Everything.

I’m one of those boomers (67) and watched in anguish as my father and my mother inlaw suffered and both pass away in nursing homes these last 2 years. For two years they were locked down and our visits restricted as we saw them become scared and lonely. My wife and I will never forget what our government put them through. They couldn’t disband the Ontario Science Table fast enough!

#58 You’ve got to be kidding on 08.28.22 at 7:22 pm

Observer #167. 8:26:2022

Further to my prior comment, there has been and continues to be a huge propaganda effort to discredit and attack the Liberal party.

The alternative(Conservative party) in its current state is much worse. This is why their game is not to focus on highlighting their strengths, but rather to attack their opponent’s weaknesses and sow disinformation into the mix. People fall for it.

^^^^^^^^^

Clearly observer, you are either pumped full of KoolAid, or you are receiving a government paycheck twice monthly.
If you think for one minute the country is delusional to assume the Liberal leadership as wholesome, honest, intelligent and competent, you have brain fog.

#59 Steven Rowlandson on 08.28.22 at 7:29 pm

“That would be extreme, resulting in many, many realtors needing to change their shorts.”

Perhaps far more than that. Their minds, profession, place of residence. Things may be financially and politically inappropriate for their persons and profession.

#60 Ken on 08.28.22 at 7:36 pm

Dear Garth,

You had me at preponderately!

#61 The General on 08.28.22 at 7:38 pm

While the rare 1952 Mickey Mantle card just sold for a record $12.6 million, Polish folks are lining up for DAYS in order to buy coal to heat their homes this winter. Pitchforks might become popular in Europe soon. Some say it reminded them of the good old Soviet days. $12.6 would buy you a lot of coal.

#62 Steven Rowlandson on 08.28.22 at 7:44 pm

So Biden has signed the $740 billion Orwellian named “Inflation Reduction Act” into law.

Richard that sounds a bit like the Whip Inflation Now buttons that were being worn during the Carter presidency. It didn’t work of course except for virtue signalers. It took 14%+ prime at the FED to depress the economy to give the impression that there was no inflation but it didn’t stop the big borrowers and lenders from creating inflation through creating debts and now we have 40+ years of excessive debt creation which flooded the world with currency which stimulated all kinds of excessive price and debt increases. There is only two ways to reduce inflation.
One is to pay down debt and the other is to default on debt forcing transfer of collateral and or writing down debt and cancelling currency along with the debt it represents. One requires honesty and discipline and the other happens for the lack of it.

#63 Faron on 08.28.22 at 7:50 pm

#40 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.28.22 at 5:29 pm
@#20 Sgt Philco
“Just got my income up to $400,000 with my new project rocking”

++++

BC Liquor stores are emptying out.

Who cares? We are better off.

#64 The General on 08.28.22 at 7:54 pm

# 51- Yukon Elvis: You are correct, sir! We have 1 being built at Kitimat. And 18 others which were suppressed by our Liberal/N.D.P./Conservative government, never to reach fruition. The U.S.A. ramped up their L.N.G., as did Australia. Now they reap the benefits, not Canada though. At least we aren’t in Europe’s shoes. Yet.

#65 Steven Rowlandson on 08.28.22 at 8:05 pm

Here is an example of the inflation causing excesses of speculative genocidal greed that richly deserves a minimum of very long term medieval interest rates on the mortgages. Medieval interest rates ranged between 50 and 66.66% PA. Frankly I find these prices horrifying and I spent my childhood there between 1965 and 1973. I can not reside anywhere near a place that has a real estate market thanks to what happened to Canada in the last 50+ years… I would imaging that the birth rate in Canada is inversely proportional to the real estate prices….. Any one doubt it?

https://www.bing.com/search?q=comox+valley+real+estate+listings&cvid=0b82fa373e33457dbb071eea392a0785&aqs=edge.0.0l2j46j0l6.6778j0j1&pglt=2083&FORM=ANNTA1&PC=ASTS

#66 Theory of Everything on 08.28.22 at 8:19 pm

#57 Brian

I am very sorry to hear you tell us this information Brian. Deepest condolences to you and your family.

I become so furious when I talk about this subject, I even notice this in my comment typing – blood rushes, words get misplaced, spelling, etc.

Ontario…oh Brian…when the politicians let this happen again and again and again…and then, didn’t they introduce some bill to apparently “protect LTC residents”, which actually (if memory serves me right, because I was blood-rush-to-the-head fuming while reading news of it) made holding politicians and LTCs more complicated, and difficult for families to get justice along with capping liabilities for the clear CRIMES of complete incompetence and willful blindness committed here, along with human rights violations?

How many times can something happen by accident? Once? Twice?

If first time and maybe second time it happened it was by accident, what was the third time or fourth time…if it wasn’t by accident anymore?

I remember reading about vaccines being here in the country, and no one was able to deliver them to those who needed it most in these LTC homes for weeks.

WHAT KIND OF NONSENSE WAS THAT?

Put them in a damn ambulance, maybe one of those GM SUV once, and bring it to an LTC ASAP – was my only thought. Tell the manufacturer to FedEx them to the LTC. The damn virus and incompetence seemed to be finding its way there as if it was being delivered there by those same FedEx vans. No corporate entity with required resources was able to stand up and help this incredible need to help distribute the shot faster to those who need it most? WHAT? NO MONEY IN IT? NO PROFIT?

I try to forget this, but it is unforgettable. Has anyone faced any consequences for this? No. Will anyone? No.

What is happening to this country of apparent wealth and resources when our effort at these LTCs for one, for those in most need of our care fell this short so damn many times?

#67 Richard L on 08.28.22 at 8:21 pm

Hooray for Powell. Hopefully Macklem will follow him. Crank those CB rates as inflation hurts everyone.

#68 Faron on 08.28.22 at 8:22 pm

So, is the recession still over? NQ front month down 1.58% at the mo. I’d be convinced if I was shown data indicating a period of rapid fed funds rate increases that wasn’t followed by a recession. Until then, this is filed into SAGI.

#69 baloney Sandwitch on 08.28.22 at 8:22 pm

I am staying fully invested. Very hard to get back in, if you bail out. Better to take the short term pain. After a while even the bear market grows on you.

Lots of bargoons out there especially in biotech. I have recently bought in 2 companies which are selling below cash asset value with near term catalysts.

#70 Sent Nor Gas on 08.28.22 at 8:56 pm

#52 Yukon Elvis

The cost will be cheaper that having Putin bend them over.

——

He’s bending them over in every way possible anyway!

You think they can sustain this energy model at 8.4% of GDP vs. previous 1%? How long?

You see the hot air Germany is blowing in support for Ukraine? The #1 economy of Europe.

These children are playing against a Grand Master. That is just the reality. He’s mostly very clever, plus also lucky. For example complete German shutdown of nuclear after Fukushima – was surely a gift from Santa to the good boy at the top of the list.

I expect another stroke of luck for Putin…a very harsh winter in Europe, probably due to global warming or something. Maybe even an early one too.

V.Putin. V stands for Vice, and as Yoda would say “Europe into Vice he will Put-in.”

Bloody sell out selfish soft politicians have made the crapy moves. He exploited their short term greed for his long game. Over and over again our leaders sell us out, and we’re angry at him for outplaying these greatest of all fools? Talk about misdirected anger.

#71 Sent Nor Gas on 08.28.22 at 9:09 pm

#64 The General

Can we stop this narrative please? Let us keep our gas where it is. We may need it soon.

I think it is a good move for us to keep that resource in the bank and not bail out other jurisdictions who have misplayed their game.

We need to keep making all the excuses possible about pipelines not able to be built. We need to thank the Natives for blocking them so that China can’t get out gas. We need to thank Biden for canceling pipelines…oil or gas. Keep it in the bank, safe and sound. Makes me all cozy and stuff.

Remember, we have winters too. Sometimes, in spite of global warming, these winters are even a touch chilly.

#72 Wrk.dover on 08.28.22 at 9:17 pm

Brother, can you spare a dime?

(too soon?)

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.28.22 at 9:24 pm

@#63 faronista
“Who cares? We are better off.”
+++
Time to ban everything that’s bad for us Faron?
Why stop at booze and pot?
Meat?
Fish?
Fertilized crops?
Hurray!
We all get to eat….porridge.

P.S.
The strike is about union government employees and their exorbitant expectations.
Not saving the planet.

#74 WHY...but WHY? on 08.28.22 at 9:35 pm

Canada’s largest banks block clients’ access to high-yielding funds – G&M

Not only were we told that Joe Canada wasn’t allowed to buy high yielding municipal bonds – because the Queen gobbled them all up in her family’s private wealth fund, now they can’t even get a decent ETF to give them yield. Greedy, sneaky bastards!

#75 Nonplused on 08.28.22 at 9:36 pm

It’s a slow day so why not weigh in on Tesla charging costs.

Let’s say for argument (which I don’t believe) that it costs only $9 to fully charge a Tesla from dead. The range is given as 330 miles.

A fully gassed up Corolla has a range of about 500 miles, which our Tesla could do with $15 of charging. The Corolla is closer to $60 to fill from empty.

But of course you can buy the Corolla for about the price of a Tesla’s battery. Which only lasts 7 years.
Hmmm.

And of course the cost of charging a Tesla isn’t going to stay $9 as we move increasingly to wind and solar. It’s going uppa upita up! $9 is your “charge with coal” price. (Yes, I know BC has hydro. Good for them.)

Of course it takes hours to fully charge a Tesla, whereas the Corolla fills up in about 5 minutes. That’s worth something.

And of course, economics 101 dictates that as electric cars become more pervasive, the various energy options (gas, electric, solar, coal, nat-gas, etc.) will all migrate towards parity. That’s just what happens with interchangeable products. Gasoline won’t stay expensive once everyone and their dog has an electric car, and electricity won’t stay cheap.

Then there is the question of the batteries. They are not without environmental consequences both to build and to dispose of. The Corolla is largely recyclable.

But all that said, I am not against electric cars, any more so than I am against say battery powered electric tools. They have their place. If you want one and can afford one, go for it. Just don’t go on about how you are saving the planet, because you are not. You are just buying a cool car, that’s all.

If you really want to cut down your ecological footprint, buy a motorcycle. Very efficient to operate, and also largely recyclable. 250 cc’s to be an eco-star, but even a big one like Garth’s Harley doesn’t use all that much gas. The secret is that they are extremely light compared to a car (300lbs for the 250, around 700lbs for a big one) and don’t push as much air as a car. Of course there is the weather… but that should be improving or so they tell us.

#76 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.28.22 at 9:40 pm

@#66 Theory
“What is happening to this country of apparent wealth and resources when our effort at these LTCs for one, for those in most need of our care fell this short so damn many times?”

+++
The bureaucrats in charge were busy in meetings talking and talking and talking.
They came to the conclusion….they needed more bureaucrats.

The navel gazers in govt are crushing Health Care with their endless excuses of why it is someone elses’ fault.
No one is fired.
No one is accountable.
No one really cares.

#77 Doug t on 08.28.22 at 9:44 pm

So if the “NEW ECONOMY “ for the future is TikTok etc times a bazillion where and how does the world exist without true labourers? As they say I guess we will be eating bugs and own nothing? Live in your government controlled structure and be happy with what?

#78 Yukon Elvis on 08.28.22 at 9:46 pm

#70 Sent Nor Gas on 08.28.22 at 8:56 pm
#52 Yukon Elvis

The cost will be cheaper that having Putin bend them over.

——

He’s bending them over in every way possible anyway!

You think they can sustain this energy model at 8.4% of GDP vs. previous 1%? How long?
++++++++++++++
Germany will do ok. They are restarting some coal fired electric generating plants and delaying the shutdown of some nuclear plants. Building six LNG plants plus more to come. Their nat gas storage is 80% full. They will do ok. Energy supply chains world wide are being reformatted. The Germans will be fine.

#79 Shawn on 08.28.22 at 9:51 pm

Money wasted on a Baseball card?

#61 The General on 08.28.22 at 7:38 pm

While the rare 1952 Mickey Mantle card just sold for a record $12.6 million, Polish folks are lining up for DAYS in order to buy coal to heat their homes this winter. Pitchforks might become popular in Europe soon. Some say it reminded them of the good old Soviet days. $12.6 would buy you a lot of coal.

************************************
I hear you and it does illustrate the vast differences in wealth.

But perhaps take comport that this is just money (claim checks on real goods and services) passed from one hand to another and with a big fee to some auction house no doubt. And hopefully a giant capital gains tax.

To some degree this transferred mega cash from one mega wealth person to another but with a lot of leakage to the auction house and hopefully the tax man. In that way no one was harmed and some people and the government revenue (therefore taxpayers) benefited.

Nothing tangible has been wasted here. No food was wasted. No natural gas was wasted. This transaction tool nothing away from any of the other 8 billion or so people on the planet.

But it is a rather sickening display of wealth by the buyer.

#80 Shawn on 08.28.22 at 9:55 pm

Remember the “Interest Rates Can’t Rise Theory?”

Remember all those smart people here who claimed that interest rates could not rise much because there was too much debt?

This was a claim or theory that was the opposite of how supply and demand works. The price for borrowing money should go up when there is more demand to borrow.

Anyhow shouldn’t these people now fess up and admit they were wrong?

#81 J on 08.28.22 at 9:57 pm

People are quitting their jobs and not working because they can. They are still eating, being housed, and so on. Once the bank of mom and dad runs out, and the government stops giving them freebies, they’ll suddenly find their way to working again.

The real question is: just how bad do things have to get before the government stops giving out free things? Do they have to completely shatter the economy first? God I hope not.

#82 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.28.22 at 10:01 pm

85 Shawn on 08.28.22 at 11:54 am
Ambition is the Mother of Success

Further to the work ethic debate.

It may be obvious or maybe it’s worth saying: The most successful people, teams and businesses are always highly ambitious. They constantly strive to grow and win and improve.
———————-
Ambition without ability is a Greek tragedy.
Unless you’re rich.

#83 Michael in-north-york on 08.28.22 at 10:08 pm

#41 The General on 08.28.22 at 5:31 pm
Does Greta approve?
===

Better go ask Greta’s friends if they approve Putin just burning his gas:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62652133

Hint: Greta’s friends didn’t notice, they were too busy campaigning against Sweden joining NATO.

Anyway Putin is an idiot. Europe will make it through the coming winter, Putin will lose his largest source of revenue.

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.28.22 at 10:12 pm

#16 Søren Angst on 08.28.22 at 3:21 pm
Update on EU and oh man, Deutschland.

Like the US Fed, I never, ever bet against Germany.

They managed, now get this, since Apr/May to lower their dependence on Russian nat gas from over 34-37% to just

9%

this past month.
——————————
I told you so.
If you want something done, get a person with Teutonic Jeans.
Like the Levis guy.

#85 Secret & Minister on 08.28.22 at 10:29 pm

I read a week or so back about that whole Australian PM secret minister thing, but now it’s been reviewed and it turns out it was perfectly legal to do.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/colby-cosh-constitutional-shenanigans-down-under-should-have-canadians-worried

Justin could make himself secret Finance Minister…if for some reason Freeland wanted to freelance and not follow his instructions. Imagine that! Perfectly legit it appears.

#86 Sail Away on 08.28.22 at 10:31 pm

#75 Nonplused on 08.28.22 at 9:36 pm

If you want one and can afford one, go for it. Just don’t go on about how you are saving the planet, because you are not.

———

No, I’m pretty sure it’s been unequivocally proven that we Tesla owners are indeed saving the planet.

Get with the program, all y’all. Think of all the babies in southeast US that will croak in 20 years when mammals can no longer survive the climate. It’s fer sure ReAL.

#87 Sail Away on 08.28.22 at 10:34 pm

#84 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.28.22 at 10:12 pm

I told you so.
If you want something done, get a person with Teutonic Jeans.
Like the Levis guy.

——–

Diarrhea is genetic. It runs in the jeans.

#88 Paddy the Baddy on 08.28.22 at 10:41 pm

50% price reduction?

Now we talking.

#89 toronto1 on 08.28.22 at 10:49 pm

RE #16 Søren Angst … LNG terminals

Yes zee Germans are resilient but those LNG terminals are not the hopdium that everyone thinks they are.

I have extended family in Germany- most are successful business owners with sizeable operations and staff ( one over 100 employees, other over 60 etc..) they both seem pretty pessimistic about the the energy prospects for the coming winter in 24 months maybe but liguified LNG is still subject to worldwide prices spikes plus the additional transport cost.

tough winter ahead for Europe, UK etc… no other way around it, the entire production facilities and way of life was based on the low cost of natural gas…. no other replacement is available to offset this. Russia knows this so does EU…… honestly my conspiracy theory is that by Feb of 2023 there is no more war in Ukraine, either NATO-West push Ukraine into a ceasefire deal with Russia or they let Russia take the whole thing.

sounds harsh but no one in Europe has sent one troop to fight this war, you think that billionaires that own all production in the EU are going to go broke for a regional proxy war to appease the USA?

in the next few months it will be where the rubber meets the road, either there is a solution found or there will be govts toppling all over the EU

Ironically, Trump was pushing NATO especially Germany to invest in LNG terminals ( of course to be supplied by US companies and the Germanys laughed him out of the room years ago. Give credit where its due… guy said that NATO was a joke because ( the countries mostly) depended on Russian gas to survive.

#90 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.28.22 at 10:51 pm

#80 Shawn on 08.28.22 at 9:55 pm
Remember the “Interest Rates Can’t Rise Theory?”

Remember all those smart people here who claimed that interest rates could not rise much because there was too much debt?

This was a claim or theory that was the opposite of how supply and demand works. The price for borrowing money should go up when there is more demand to borrow.

Anyhow shouldn’t these people now fess up and admit they were wrong
——————————
Agree.
But FURZ will never admit to anything.
Like being wrong on the price of gas, and about Putin’s head being on a “spike” by now.

#91 april on 08.28.22 at 10:56 pm

#27 – Are you so naive as to believe that realtor?

#92 Steven Rowlandson on 08.28.22 at 10:57 pm

“Remember the “Interest Rates Can’t Rise Theory?””
Well Shawn interest rates can rise. The question really is can super debtors afford their debts?
They had 40 + years to clean up their act. Time very well could be up.

#93 THE DANDADA on 08.28.22 at 11:34 pm

I heard Biden found all kinds of extra cash stored in a sock drawer to pay for 1.75 TRILLION dollars of student debt.

SWEEEEEEET!!!!

#94 Golden Bow on 08.28.22 at 11:49 pm

Volker was a God. The 80’s were a stock market bonanza better than any time in history, while the ‘easy money’ was made buying T Bills at 14% and 5 yr CSBs at 18 1/2, bring that back please. Yes real estate was in the toilet from 80 to 89 until Hong Kongers shoved a cash injection into Canadian veins. Values plunged 50++ % from the top down. You could have fired a cannon down Robson Street and not hit anyone.

And thousands of chronic unemployed would show up for a waitress posting. Fights broke out every day at the EI offices. But man, if you were playing gold stocks and such hustles on the penny stock VSE it was a golden era of fat times, cocaine and strippers. Miami Vice had nothing on Vancouver. So bring it on Mr Powell/Tiff. Another lost decade of jingle mail is just another “opportunity”.

I’m loving the idea of fat TBill returns above 10%, bring it on.

#95 Michael in-north-york on 08.28.22 at 11:57 pm

#89 toronto1
===

There is no going back to cozy relations with Putin and his gas. Cheap gas is gone forever. If NATO abandons Ukraine, Putin will swallow that country, and then invade the Baltic states and Poland.

The war will continue, and it will come closer to home.

NATO did not send a single troop to fight? That’s good. To keep it that way, we have to support the Ukrainians until they win the war.

On Trump and LNG – yep, he was right on that occasion. That doesn’t make him a genius. Should have been obvious to everyone in Europe since 2014, that Putin is not a dependable business partner. The Europeans should have been prepared years ago, not waited until the full-scale war breaks out.

#96 fishman on 08.29.22 at 12:14 am

We should all be reassured that Germany will be OK as they prepare for a winter war with Russia. Yukon Elvis stated this three separate times in his last post. Such unique and inspirational faith in the march of history. This week I’m going Volkswagen shopping. I could afford a Porsche but trying to follow Uncle Garth’s advise about hiding among the masses.

#97 Warren Peace on 08.29.22 at 12:25 am

Here I’am stopped at red light on Comox Rd. Nanaimo
heading North on Old Island Highway.Spot Street Person with sign “Anything Helps”Light turns green,I proceed and hand Street Person bag of coins.Behind me the guy Honks and Honks.
“Enter Thoughts”
put car in reverse
back up
call cops
Have Idiot charged with rear ending.[only in Nanaimo]

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.29.22 at 12:40 am

#89 Hogtown1
Ironically, Trump was pushing NATO especially Germany to invest in LNG terminals ( of course to be supplied by US companies and the Germanys laughed him out of the room years ago. Give credit where its due… guy said that NATO was a joke because ( the countries mostly) depended on Russian gas to survive.
—————————
Well, the funny part is: The USA IS NATO.
Here are the 10 countries with the most NATO spending: $000
1. United States ($811,140)
2. United Kingdom ($72,765)
3. Germany ($64,785)
4. France ($58,729)
5. Italy ($29,763)
6. Canada ($26,523)
7. Spain ($14,875)
8. Netherlands ($14,378)
9. Poland ($13,369)
10. Turkey ($13,057)

#99 Faron on 08.29.22 at 12:56 am

#9 jess on 08.28.22 at 2:36 pm
Allegedly, the frog is not able to detect the gradual increase in temperature until it’s too late.

restore the balance, widen the Gaussian curve?

Yes, in so many ways this is true. Curious what you mean WRT “widen the Gaussian curve”.

#100 Keith on 08.29.22 at 2:04 am

@ #85 Secret and Minister

Don’t worry about the cabinet, or even Trudeau. They are oily rags. The PMO is the engineer. People are cheering or hating Poilievre, when they should be asking who his advisors are going to be.

#101 under the radar on 08.29.22 at 5:01 am

Condo development in the 416 financial center sold out at $1900 psf. Occupancy 2029. Do ya feel lucky punk, W’ell do ya?

#102 Summertime on 08.29.22 at 5:09 am

#31 Reality is stark on 08.28.22 at 4:48 pm

The public debt situation is much worse:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_public_debt

For 2020 (the fiscal year ending 31 March 2021), the market value of financial liabilities, or gross debt, was $2,852 billion ($74,747 per capita) for the consolidated Canadian general government (federal, provincial, territorial, and local governments combined).[1] As a ratio of GDP, gross debt was 129.2% in 2020 (GDP was $2,207 billion[2]), the highest level ever recorded.

Don’t buy the lie that counts federal debt only.

#103 KNOW IT ALL on 08.29.22 at 6:45 am

GOOD…..Crash it!!

#104 Gulf Stream on 08.29.22 at 7:20 am

Summertime-102. Says Trudeau to your numbers? “So what”! Trudeau has no concern, he’s said so. Why expect anything to change? That would be insane. Trudeau and The Gang are going to Vancouver next week to plan more pandering and spending for the fall. Expect an extremely heavy RCMP presence, and it’s home court to the Vancouver heavy horse battalion that proved so effective against the truckers.

My Bloomberg terminal is spitting out a series of scathing admonitions from every G7 leader regarding his bizarre spending leaving little room to support basic services.

One EU leader , one whose obviously out of the loop wonders aloud about Trudeaus reluctance to save the EU with abundant Canadian gas. He wondered aloud that Trudeau might be ‘hoarding it’s resources’. OMG, the real problem is a failure to communicate with our allies. Mr Trudeau isn’t hoarding, he’s stifling. What’s wrong with the media.

But, Canadians won’t hear about that. The CBC etc is more likely to bring in babies to sniff and gushing puddles of the shampoo he uses.

#105 GB on 08.29.22 at 7:59 am

Quick question. I need to replace an old deck. Will the cost of materials be less….more….or no change this time next year?

In other words…do it now or wait a year?

Thanks for any insights

#106 Sail Away on 08.29.22 at 8:08 am

NASAs Artemis moon launch happens this morning. Good luck to them, although, this being unmanned, it would be quite something if a massive failure occurred and forever removed Boeing as a SpaceX competitor… cementing Elon as rightful Ruler of the Universe.

#107 Steven Rowlandson on 08.29.22 at 8:24 am

Getting an intelligent Canadian to buy real estate at post 1970s prices today is not possible. Suicide is a sin and you can not get blood from a stone. Victimizing the greater fools and the rich might be possible for awhile but when the rates go up and people retire, die or have low incomes the jig is up , game over. What is gained for the rich if they bought all the real estate and no one could buy or rent their properties? The rich buying up property is what many people are banking on as if there were an endless supply of rich people. There isn’t.
There are large numbers of working poor and they really can’t afford much if anything beyond a home on a lot for $30,000+/- a bit. For Canadians to face reality is a real bitch slapping and even then they might not come to their senses. Too many have drank the Kool Aid. Their landing will be a hard and messy one.

#108 Stereo Review on 08.29.22 at 8:25 am

#105 GB

Don’t way.

There are plenty of decks on eBay.

I suggest Technics or Sony. You may need to change the belts, but once you do, you can listen to your Led Zeppelin tapes for the next 20 years.

#109 Stereo Review on 08.29.22 at 8:26 am

#105 GB

Don’t wait.

There are plenty of decks on eBay.

I suggest Technics or Sony. You may need to change the belts, but once you do, you can listen to your Led Zeppelin tapes for the next 20 years.

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.29.22 at 8:47 am

@#90 Ponzie’s Pal’s Pike Pole
“Like being wrong on the price of gas, and about Putin’s head being on a “spike” by now.”
+++

I believe the unexpected vision of Biden eating his own words ( I’ll never meet with that man!) and meeting with the murderous Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman was enough to send gas plummeting below $2 bucks a liter instead of skyrocketing to the inflation bleeding $3/liter.
Perhaps you would prefer 2% interest jumps to tame the inflation beast if gas hit $3?
No?
I’m glad I was wrong.
We’ll see what the excessive fuel burning in Winter and Russian pipeline “maintenance” brings the world wide price of oil.
Its a shame Trudeau has decided to promise hydrogen we dont currently have in 5 years to people that want to spend billions now for our oil.
But that’s his manic fantasy world.

As for Putin’s Pumpkin head on a pike ( Its a real word Ponzie….check it out. ) outside the Kremlin by the end of Sept….
Still waiting.
But you keep cheering the Putin Rooskis on.
If Ukraine falls…Austria is but half a day’s tank ride away for the Russian army….
You can stand with thousands of countrymen on the main Strasse of Vienna and throw flowers to the invaders….just like last time.

#111 TurnerNation on 08.29.22 at 8:53 am

#57 PT Barnum on 08.27.22 at 6:23 pm

Erm, ‘Covid Deaths’ you say?
Anyone here from Nova Scotia?
The website ‘canucklaw .ca’ made a Freedom of Information request to N.S.

This is part of what they got back from NS government:
(B.C. also counts in the same fashion. Hard to believe some people still turn to a “news-paper” for info these day eh)

“”A death due to COVID-19 is defined for surveillance purposes as a death resulting from a clinically compatible illness, in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID disease (e.g. trauma). There should be no period of complete recovery from COVID-19 between illness and death.”

#112 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.29.22 at 8:55 am

@#106 Sail Away
“…it would be quite something if a massive failure occurred and forever removed Boeing as a SpaceX competitor…”

+++
Yep.
The last time Artemis launched was in….2018.

One wonders if the latest Elon SpaceX Starship launches have been held back with “technical problems” to allow Nasa their “glory”.

Nasa and the US govt give Musk billions for his SpaceX launches.
Elon doesnt want to bite the hand that feeds him.

I hope all goes well for the Nasa govt bureaucrats launching a multi billion dollar, unmanned, 50 year old designed, space capsule, which will still splash down in the Pacific and have to be rescued.
Yawn.
SpaceX has them beat in the space race of public opinion.

#113 Sail Away on 08.29.22 at 9:41 am

@105

Replacing old pitch decks takes time and inspiration, so move ahead whenever feels right. Try to tailor the new deck to your investor/audience’s needs and the situation at hand.

Good luck. Going hat in hand for funding is no fun.

#114 chalkie on 08.29.22 at 10:08 am

For the seniors who were true soldiers and built this country on hard work and long days, they are now entering into their well-deserved glory again, being able to get a decent return on what money they have left to live on, because government pensions just never cut it, for the most part unfortunately long days and hard work is no longer understood by today’s generation. Let her rip Powell, we need to keep the rates rising.

#115 millmech on 08.29.22 at 10:16 am

#81 J
I hope they keep quitting, my work has upped my compensation by $5/hr into my pension for every hour worked, $10/hr for double time days. Close to 20k/year just for staying. I can probably double that in the market in 5-6 years so I take it as a 40k bonus.
Those who are quitting do not realize how far behind the eight ball they are putting themselves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJjKP8vYjpQ

#116 baloney Sandwitch on 08.29.22 at 10:20 am

lol. This explains the action last week.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/x0i8by/it_all_makes_sense_now/

#117 Prince Polo on 08.29.22 at 10:39 am

Garth’s kindred spirit on quiet quitting:

And two things make you feel satisfied with a job: a path forward for advancement and the chance to use your skills to solve problems—big problems and more often small ones. That’s why people who report high levels of satisfaction aren’t always at the fancy job that promises to make the world a better place. These are people who are just good at what they do. But getting good at what you do usually means some grunt work along the way.

Source: https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/economists-are-angry

She also writes about the $10K loan forgiveness coming soon to US. Any thoughts on our dear photo-op minister copying this idea? I shudder at the thought of being a responsible tuition-debt terminator if this is coming soon to an election near you.

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.29.22 at 11:08 am

A National survey ( 40 million people in Canada now?) receives 25,000 responses for more to be done for the 2sLGBTQi+ community

No problem when the Libs have their hands in the Federal cookie jar.

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/08/28/canada-invests-100m-into-historic-action-plan-for-2slgbtq-communities/

Hope you like your taxes going higher than a SpaceX Starship.

#119 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.29.22 at 11:15 am

#110 FURZ
Excuses, Excuses!
Keep on changing the goal post.
Eventually you’ll get it right, maybe.
Inside of you is a politician yearning to get out.

#120 Linda on 08.29.22 at 11:32 am

#66 ‘Theory’ – I hear you. If I fear anything about the future, the prospect of eventually ending up in one of those LTC ‘facilities’ is it. As I am approaching my older years I’ve really ramped up on taking better care of myself. Health is not only wealth, it is vital to ensuring one has quality of life.

Sadly, stories such as the ones that were headlined during Covid are nothing new. I do not think that there has ever been a time when an investigation into how well elders are faring under LTC hasn’t turned up horror stories of abuse, neglect, over drugging, theft etc. Take care of yourselves, folks. It may be hard work, but if it keeps you active, healthy & out of LTC it is worth it.

#121 Green Valley on 08.29.22 at 11:51 am

Fire him.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/fire-the-central-bankers-for-their-inflation-failure-why-it-s-more-complicated-than-that/ar-AA11dYy3?cvid=6d51f679e6014e6fa7915eecb59e8f34

#122 Sail Away on 08.29.22 at 11:54 am

#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.29.22 at 11:08 am

A National survey ( 40 million people in Canada now?) receives 25,000 responses for more to be done for the 2sLGBTQi+ community

No problem when the Libs have their hands in the Federal cookie jar.

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/08/28/canada-invests-100m-into-historic-action-plan-for-2slgbtq-communities/

——–

But, but… CBC programming is already 97% alphabet soup people, so there’s nowhere else to go there because occasionally they still need to talk about Trump or the non-gendered weather.

One thing I’m going to do is try to get my hands on some of this cash. We are already minority-owned and equal opportunity and can easily add other catchwords to the application(s). Free money is the best! Will update.

#123 Dr V on 08.29.22 at 11:59 am

Sailo/Fartz – I believe the term is now “crewless”.

#124 DHG on 08.29.22 at 12:28 pm

As for Nanaimo real estate here are a few samples of price reductions:

63 Lake Pl. July 13 $985K
Aug 4 $939K
Aug 29 $899K

350 Carnoustie July 25 $1.395M
Aug 5 $1.295M
Aug 27 $1.131M

5604 Hiquebraun July 10 $2.650M
Aug 12 $1.999M

1665 Bay July 15 $599K
July 25 $549K
Aug 29 $519K

#125 Wrk.dover on 08.29.22 at 12:28 pm

#105 GB on 08.29.22 at 7:59 am
Quick question. I need to replace an old deck. Will the cost of materials be less….more….or no change this time next year?
____________________________

Inflation indicates next year the price will be up.

Lumber industry operational costs, fuel, fuel and more fuel indicate you really haven’t pondered this, have you?

The deck that follows in 15-20 years will be the kicker.

Switch to a masonry wall filled with pit run and capped with washed gravel on a membrane. It will cost the same, but outlast the house!

I didn’t even use mortar on the 2’X40′ rock wall that I placed in one day, racing blackfly season, 20 years ago when I replaced our deck.

You do have a wheelbarrow?

#126 Dan from Pickering on 08.29.22 at 12:38 pm

A Toronto house less than 10ft wide just hit the market for nearly $2M. Imagine being the guy that buys this place.

https://www.cp24.com/news/a-toronto-house-less-than-10ft-wide-just-hit-the-market-for-nearly-2m-1.6045262

#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.29.22 at 12:55 pm

#120 Linda on 08.29.22 at 11:32 am
#66 ‘Theory’ – I hear you. If I fear anything about the future, the prospect of eventually ending up in one of those LTC ‘facilities’ is it. As I am approaching my older years I’ve really ramped up on taking better care of myself. Health is not only wealth, it is vital to ensuring one has quality of life.

Sadly, stories such as the ones that were headlined during Covid are nothing new. I do not think that there has ever been a time when an investigation into how well elders are faring under LTC hasn’t turned up horror stories of abuse, neglect, over drugging, theft etc. Take care of yourselves, folks. It may be hard work, but if it keeps you active, healthy & out of LTC it is worth it.
————————-
Good advise.
Unfortunately, there’s no cure for Alzheimer’s, yet.
The disease seems to be striking at random.
Some as young as 50 can get it.
So, enjoy life while you still can, and hope for the best.
Stressing out over things you cannot control is a major contributor to early death.

#128 Faron on 08.29.22 at 1:44 pm

#125 Wrk.dover on 08.29.22 at 12:28 pm
#105 GB on 08.29.22 at 7:59 am
Quick question. I need to replace an old deck. Will the cost of materials be less….more….or no change this time next year?
____________________________

Inflation indicates next year the price will be up

If recession takes hold and RE takes a dump, then there may be a major slowdown in building. Less building = lower cost for materials. Read stories of the Volker era. I believe home builders were sending then-worthless 2 x 4s to politicians because housing demand had hit ~0.

#129 KLNR on 08.29.22 at 1:49 pm

@#96 fishman on 08.29.22 at 12:14 am
We should all be reassured that Germany will be OK as they prepare for a winter war with Russia. Yukon Elvis stated this three separate times in his last post. Such unique and inspirational faith in the march of history. This week I’m going Volkswagen shopping. I could afford a Porsche but trying to follow Uncle Garth’s advise about hiding among the masses.

fishman, you are the best of the braggarts on here.
thx for the entertainment.

#130 TurnerNation on 08.29.22 at 1:57 pm

Hi again Boss! It’s me again, your sometimes-sycophant.
You’ll never guess what now. YES I have “Long Covid”. Or, possibly, Climate Change [sic] related symptoms.
That means no return to office — any time soon.

Signed,

WFH4EVER

#131 Shawn on 08.29.22 at 2:09 pm

What would be the loss to the world if the $12 million Mickey Mantle baseball card were destroyed?

I would say essentially no loss. The owner would be out $12 million but he could only have ever realised the $12 million by selling it to someone else who would give up cash for it.

The same might be said for the Mona Lisa but I would argue that has far more real value. The Mantle card was probably not even on display for people to view and feel some satisfaction from that.

Now imagine the loss of $12 million of grain destroyed or oil or milk or $12 million worth of houses. Those would be real losses.

Just something to think about.

#132 Ronaldo on 08.29.22 at 2:17 pm

#124 DHG on 08.29.22 at 12:28 pm
As for Nanaimo real estate here are a few samples of price reductions:

63 Lake Pl. July 13 $985K
Aug 4 $939K
Aug 29 $899K

350 Carnoustie July 25 $1.395M
Aug 5 $1.295M
Aug 27 $1.131M

5604 Hiquebraun July 10 $2.650M
Aug 12 $1.999M

1665 Bay July 15 $599K
July 25 $549K
Aug 29 $519K
——————————————————–

So the 1st. is asking $137,000 below July 1/21 asses. but still $97,000 above July 1/20 assess. No sales history in past 3 years. Likley still a lot of equity in the place.

The 2nd. is asking $1.131 which is the assessment for July 1/21. Prev. year was $866,000. They paid $905,000 for it May 31/20. They will be lucky to break even.

The 3rd one. It was assessed at $1.405 July 1/21 and previous year $694,000. They are asking $594,000 over last assessment. But their original asking price of $2.65 was $1.245 over last assessment but a whopping $1.956 over the July 1/20 assessment. These people are dreaming in technicolour. No sales history in the last 3 years. Good luck with that one.

The 4th one the original asking was $156,000 below the July 1/21 assessment of $755,000 and now asking $236.000 below assessment. The July 1/20 assessment was $559,000. It appears they want out bad. No sales history in past 3 years so they likely still have a lot of equity in the place so reason for the big drop in asking.

A good example at how prices went totally out of whack during the Covid thingy. Gonna be a lot of sad people going forward.

#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.29.22 at 2:28 pm

@#123 Dr.V
“I believe the term is now “crewless”.”

+++
The new gender neutral way to say “unmanned”?

#134 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.29.22 at 2:50 pm

A friend works for the Vancouver shipyards.
We were talking about the BC Liquor employees strike
The strikers were offered 11% over 3 years and a $2700 signing bonus.
He laughed.
Apparently the workers at Van Seaspan Shipbuilding want a 17% increase THE FIRST YEAR of a 3 year contract.

This recession will be long and hard.

#135 GB on 08.29.22 at 6:06 pm

Sail away @113

I….have no idea what you are on about?

#136 Gravy Train on 08.29.22 at 6:28 pm

#127 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.29.22 at 12:55 pm

Good [advice].[…]

Yes, Linda gave good advice.

[Alzheimer’s] disease seems to be striking at random.[…]

No. Systolic blood pressure over 140 mmHg, a body mass index over 30, total cholesterol over 6.5 mmol/L, no physical activity, diabetes, obesity, smoking, poor-quality sleep, poor diet, low education, high anxiety and depression are significant risk factors for developing Alzheimer’s disease. This disease is defined by two signature deposits in the hippocampus when the brain is examined postmortem under the microscope: plaques (beta amyloid proteins) and tangles (tau proteins). See Antoine Haikim’s (2017) book Save Your Mind: Seven Rules to Avoid Dementia. Maybe stick to subjects you know something about.

[…] So, enjoy life while you still can, and hope for the best.

Try to do more than just hope for the best. Here are Haikim’s 7 rules: 1) grow your brain’s capacity for cognitive function; 2) reduce the debit calls on your mind; 3) monitor and tame your blood pressure; 4) eat right, weigh light, stay bright; 5) move your hind to save your mind; 6) sleep enough; and 7) socialize and feel useful: loneliness and depression can make you crazy. For further details, buy or borrow the book.