Already?

“Drove by a house in my hood tonight,” reports blog dog and veteran realtor Ron. “Three agents stood outside huddled with clients, waiting for their turn. I thought it was a flashback to last February.”

He continues:

Agents at the weekly Zoom were speaking with optimism. Tales are drifting in from Durham about multiple offers.  Perhaps it dawned on everyone that you can get a 3.5% mortgage which some lenders are pre-approving and locking in until late November. After all, historically speaking 3.5% is really cheap money. I look for a strong September and October, and perhaps an increase in average GTA prices. At which point we could be back at the races, as a new variant of “House Fever” grips us. Early days, but that is my call. Of course, eventually Tiff will drive a stake into this thing, but it is a resilient beast.

So, you gotta hand it to realtors as a species. They exude optimism, adrenalin and hope. After all, it’s a tough gig. No salary. Hardly any benefits. Zilch pension. Eat-what-you-kill compensation. Low public esteem. Tire-kickers wasting your time. Blogs dumping on you. And when there’s a market rout, the income river runs dry and the land cracks. Disaster.

But is there any truth to Ron’s report? Are people getting used to a rising rate environment? Are astute buyers scooping homes selling for hundreds of thousands less than six months ago? After all, that tsunami of new listings has not yet occurred in most places. Sales levels have crashed, so competition is less. And conditional offers are a thing again. So are conditions not immeasurably better for buyers than back when the snow and the FOMO flew?

Of course.

As this blog’s oft said, people are weird. They buy as a pack, desperate to grab what’s rising insanely in value. Then when prices fall and value increases, the herd retreats. In a flash, green greed turns to crimson fear.

And recall all those brave assertions which wafted up from the steerage section months ago saying buyers would rush in, flooding the market, if prices ever fell by 15%? Well, here we be. The average SFH in the GTA is cheaper by 22%, with dips from the Fraser Valley to Ontario’s Bunnypatch closer to 30%.

An opportunity? Or a falling knife?

In less than two weeks the Bank of Canada will again raise its benchmark rates. A half-point, likely. The prime will be 5.2% at the Big Six and we’ll be closer to a trigger point when monthly payments on tens of thousands of variable-rate mortgages rise by an average of $200. Of course HELOC charges augment with each CB hike, and lately bond yields have again been on the rise – so expect no declines in fiver loans. Thus, the tightening continues.

Higher mortgage rates boost payments, so housing affordability has not declined even as prices fade. We know 83% of all buyers in Canada use financing, so this barrier remains. But for the 17% who deploy cash, savings, investment funds or the proceeds of a property sale to buy, the market in many places looks tasty.

Meanwhile desire remains hot. At least according to the new Royal LePage piece of puffery. The property-flogging outfit’s latest 2,000-person survey finds almost 60% of those between 26 and 41 are still house-horny but 37% in the GTA and 31% nationally say they’ll have to move out of their home city to achieve the privilege of having a mortgage. And – following up on the astonishing body of comments yesterday – half these Mills say they’d dump their jobs and find new WFH employment just to get some real estate.

Says the LePage head wizard, Phil Soper: “Many Canadians who are in the stage of life where home buying is a top priority, especially younger millennials, remain committed to achieving home ownership and are optimistic about the opportunities that lie ahead, due in large part to the example of their parents and family members who have reaped the benefits of our nation’s historically strong real estate market.”

There ya go. Recency bias as religion. Real estate always goes up, is what Phil means. Except now, of course. But that’s just strange and crazy, so buy.

Do he and Ron have a point? Once the rate-tightening screws stabilize and mortgages stop levitating with average prices down from last winter’s Peak House, will FOMO return? Has it already started, given the fact lots of properties are on offer for $500,000 less than they were 180 days ago? In the long run – ten years – does anyone seriously think real estate will cost less?

Here’s where history may help.

The two biggest property plops in memory happened in the early 1990s in Canada and a decade later in the States. In both instances the average price decline was 32%. In each country it took between 24 and 36 months for markets to bottom (1989 to 1991 here and 2005-8 in the US). Then it required at least ten years (longer in Canada) for average prices to restore to the former peak – inflation not included.

So is the realtor suggestion we’ve hit bottom in six months just a marketing ploy, since another Audi lease payment is looming?

Or will the largest cohort again swoop in and send prices lunar?

You don’t know. I don’t. Phil and Ron don’t. This remains the best advice: if you really need a house and can afford one without gutting your finances or imperiling your family, go ahead. I won’t judge.

About the picture: “Following the demise of our two girls ( Finnish Spitz ) in 2019 swore never again,” says Gabriele, “there’s trouble enough in the natural way to give your heart to a dog to tear”. But then again, life is hardly worth living without having a true friend and incredible beauty all in one. Have been involved with wildlife rehabilitation and animal rescues my entire life, and so naively thought would not be a problem. Now I am not criticizing and they may have very good reasons indeed, but discovered that as a newly minted senior not quite so easy. Submitted numerous applications to various rescue groups including, Free Korea dogs etc – no response. Saw this lovely girl on PetSmart website !!!! and submitted online application. Two interviews  with two very nice ladies – Moon and Jenny – later I was accepted. Eight Paws did all the arrangements but did pick her up at Pearson. It is my understanding they can even arrange for transport to one’s home if necessary. Cost $800 total – dog is spayed, neutered, fully vaccinated etc.  Little Amira is an absolute delight.”

98 comments ↓

#1 I'm a day late! on 08.25.22 at 2:01 pm

GT – “there’s FIRE. The financial-independence-retire-early movement…”

‐——————————

Sorry to say but you have it all wrong. That’s ok, I don’t blame you bc your financial compensation package depends on you not understanding the real underlying issues that have crept up over the years.

The FIRE economy of finance, insurance and real estate is what has led us into the situation today. The post industrial economy to a globalized/offshored based system has us dependent on paper wealth that citizens of the western world have been chasing for far too long. The huge inflation over the last several decades caused by a cartel of bankers, realtors and Boc government hacks have destroyed any sense of fulfillment for the younger generation that now refuse to fund old wrinklies high standard of living. But even these boomers are now feeling the crunch as many that don’t have any real savings because they loved the banks refi game, are looking down the abyss. They quit their jobs a few years back to enjoy early refi-tirement and eventhough they now cannot enjoy their freedom bc of Covid induced madness of libtard government, these boomers are sitting idle. Waiting.
They could be productive as some are going back to fill certain positions but most simply refuse to revisit a workplace that was soul crushing to them in the first place. They did once, for 30+ years and are damned if they ever go back.

The younger ones listened and watched their parents over the years. They simply won’t repeat or even try to emulate what their parents did bc the cost of everything – Justin-flation has now made it next to impossible to achieve anything else than the renteer class. So the message is clear to our masters of the universe of central bankers. FU!

If anybody is paying attention just watch (non-msm sources) what is happening with the Wellington protesters and the similarity to Canada. The have/have-nots will be clashing at a greater pace and it won’t be long till similarities of Johannesburg or New Orleans violent car jackings will become the norm in GTA or other big cities.

This demented FIRE economy that suits so well our ulper/political class and all its absurdities with inequality has assured this outcome. You can’t say it isn’t by design, right Tiff??

#2 West New West on 08.25.22 at 2:03 pm

Well, that is one loving dog, anyone can see that, and thanks to Gabrielle, it looks like Amira hit the jackpot

#3 Franco on 08.25.22 at 2:05 pm

Home sales here in PTBO seem to be doing pretty good, just went out for a drive this morning sa 7 houses with a SOLD sign and waiting to be sold and they do not take long to sell either.

#4 Tacofino on 08.25.22 at 2:08 pm

Just back from one night camping in Tofino and catching up on yesterday’s post.

Wow do those kids have too much money driving those slick camper converts and surfing all day. They have so much money some can even ship their custom rigs ($250k+) across from Europe to have a surf.

Those retiring early will feel the fire alright. Of out of control inflation. Life work balance is good. But checking emails on your phone and pretending to WFH won’t cut it. I’m thinking lots of opportunity for the productive with solid work ethic in future.

A recession will surely sort things out. Layoffs plus inflation is a great way to encourage those remaining employed to come out of silent retirement.

#5 Captain Uppa on 08.25.22 at 2:12 pm

Many RE agents on my Twitter feed are reporting spikes in activity.

And these are not the TikTok overnight agents, there are the we only lie sometimes agents.

#6 jess on 08.25.22 at 2:20 pm

full employment? winners and losers

https://theintercept.com/2022/08/24/unemployment-recession-worker-power-douglas-emmett/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=The%20Intercept%20Newsletter

#7 Caffeine Monkey on 08.25.22 at 2:35 pm

Classic bull trap. Humans are so predictable.

#8 mj on 08.25.22 at 2:36 pm

I’ve noticed since the bank of Canada raised rates in March, approximately a thousand extra properties were coming every day. However, for the month of August the number is flat. We have been about 243,000 properties on realtor.ca for a while. If the bank of Canada keeps raising rates, prices have to fall more.

#9 ElGatoNeroYVR on 08.25.22 at 2:40 pm

Wow ,lots of people here who (sorry to say) completely lack imagination .I find myself busier than ever on vacations (and days I quietly work) with my hobbies than I ever am at work.
Let me start you down the right track of FIRE. Plan to live 3-4 months outside of Canada ,flights ,accomodations,things to do.
Just do the planning and you will discover lots of interests/hobbies outside of the office. Do the actual sabattical and you will come back with even more interests/hobbies .
Home Automation is another fun rabbit hole you can slide in, thereˋs books ,language learning, other kinds of learning ,yoga, dance … you name it ,hit a meetup.com event if all else fails.
Work is a mean to an end (FI) not your life.Do not get swayed into work till you drop.

Now onto the subject at hand,RE:
I think everyone is quite familair with the rebound theory. This is a big rebound which will be followed by smaller waves of corrections & rebounds untill we settle on a growth pattern.
Remeber, you read it here first.

#10 Fact Checker Fred on 08.25.22 at 2:57 pm

Keeping a close eye on the houses going for sale in my hood, here in the bunny patch. The first listed 3 weeks ago, the second one 6 days ago. They are very close to each other, the only notable difference is the walkout basement on the first. Quite the price difference tho….

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24724611/453-misty-crescent-kitchener

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24789012/409-misty-crescent-kitchener

#11 Buy toilet paper. Remember 2020 march on 08.25.22 at 3:18 pm

The crisis on the European gas market could lead to reduced production of toilet paper in Germany, according to Martin Krengel, chairman of the nation’s paper industry association, Die Papierindustrie.

“We are particularly dependent on gas for the production of tissue paper. Without it, we will no longer be able to provide security of supply,” Krengel said in a statement published on Thursday.

Putin did this not the German retard politicians

#12 GenY-earn on 08.25.22 at 3:25 pm

It makes sense, doesn’t it? The folks predicting a broad-based market collapse in the still-most desirable cities in Canada are doing so out of their own lusts and desires, not out of a clear-eyed look at the cold hard facts.

Demand was pulled forward due to interest rate declines creating new opportunities for Millenials/GenZ and their loaded boomer parents. Demand is now deferred due to interest rate rises reversing all those opportunities.

But one fundamental reality of Canadian life has not changed: Canada’s youth are desperate… absolutely positively desperate… to own the shelter over their heads. Demand is going nowhere but up in the long run in Canada, absent war or disaster.

#13 Nonplused on 08.25.22 at 3:28 pm

“Following the demise of our two girls ( Finnish Spitz ) in 2019 swore never again,” says Gabriele, “there’s trouble enough in the natural way to give your heart to a dog to tear”.

Ok, but about the dog? Leave it languishing? In the case of rescue dogs especially, a little (or a lot of) heartache down the road is worth it. Especially for the dog.

——————————————-

Ah yes, economics (human behavior amongst scarcity).

I am nonplused as always. On the one hand we have the dreaded bank tightening. On the other hand we have absolutely insane fiscal policy which isn’t slowing down. So while the left hand is trying to curb inflation, the right hand is doing everything it can to cause more.

Case in point: Bidens’s student loan forgiveness (probably coming here soon, Trudeau won’t be outdone). We can go over the very valid arguments as to whether plumbers and FedEx drivers should be paying for someone else’s fine arts masters, rule of law, contracts, etc. All these concerns are very valid but sweeping them aside still leaves us with the bare fact that this action will push another $600 billion in printed money into the economy with no other trace besides an increase in the number of outstanding treasuries. This is inflationary.

Or there is the “countering inflation act” or whatever they call it, the whole of which is inflationary. Building pinwheels and glassing over fields causes inflation, no matter what you think of the climate “emergency”, because they don’t work (they are intermittent), duplicative (you still need the old grid online for when the wind doesn’t blow or the sun sets), and only last 20 years before they head for the landfill. Energy prices will go up. Maybe it saves the planet, but it is inflationary.

Can rising interest rates counter all this government spending? Yes. On a personal level they can make your life miserable. But on a fiscal level? No. As long as the government keeps pouring money on the fire inflation will burn higher and higher.

Neither monetary nor fiscal policy can do anything unless they are coordinated. And they are not. So we will get high inflation and high interest rates until interest rates are high enough to force a fiscal reckoning. When does that day come? Will we have a new Mulroney in our future? Followed by a Chretien? And then a Harper? Or is it Trudeau from here on out?

People who hope for sunny weather tend to be happier. Until it rains. Then people who used the sunny times to build a roof fair better. Me thinks the storm is just getting started. Interest rates are headed to 9% IMHO. That will of course cause a fiscal emergency not seen this generation, but there is no avoiding it. Maybe the storm blows over, but if it doesn’t, you’ll be glad to have prepared.

Pay off all your debts. Even the “productive” ones. If you have any money left, buy all the things.

#14 Honest Realtor on 08.25.22 at 3:29 pm

Garth, apart from your friendly and predictable realtor bashing, do you consider it “puffery” what Statistics Canada just reported?

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-s-population-could-increase-to-57m-by-2068-posing-challenges-for-housing-health-care-1.6041414

“Canada’s population could increase to 57M by 2068, posing challenges for housing, health care”

The impact on house prices will be epic and wonderful for owners heading forward into this population explosion.

Hard to think of anything that will do as well for future investments. Stock markets are soon to be rattled by the necessary environmental reset that is about to hit us all. Most investors, without excellent advisors like Garth, will be crushed in stock market collapses.

But we will all need a roof over our heads, and there will be way more Canadians in the decades ahead, most wanting to live near where they do now.

Don’t miss out, folks.

Conjecture is conjecture, and that is 46 years away. Yes, puffery. BTW, big population growth is positive for an economy two-thirds based on consumer spending – bullish for equities, not bad. Sheesh. – Garth

#15 Flop… on 08.25.22 at 3:30 pm

Flop Drops.

Fireworks continue to go off in Chilliwack.

Someone just bought this for 601k.

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2716494/27-9102-HAZEL-STREET-Chilliwack-BC/

Yesterday also someone bought this for 625k

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2706050/45369-MCINTOSH-DRIVE-Chilliwack-BC/

Today’s big news.

Someone bought a fixer upper, possibly just to demo for a flat half million.

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2716180/45533-MCINTOSH-DRIVE-Chilliwack-BC/

If things keep going like this eventually I might be able to find someone to let me camp in their driveway each weekend…

M48BC

#16 A J on 08.25.22 at 3:33 pm

I think rising rents have a part to play in all this. Many millennials now have young children or are looking to start a family. If they need more space/bedrooms, the rental market is severely lacking in affordable semi-detached/detached homes. I’ve heard from a few friends who had to bid on a rental against other would-be renters. I can imagine if those people are sitting on the sidelines with a down payment in their pocket, they’re ready to try again to buy. Why pay near the same for rent as a mortgage?

Just to give an example, before I bought my first house my rent was $1,200 a month for a 1 bedroom living downtown Toronto. I have periodically checked the rental rates in that building over the past couple years and the rent has now swollen to $2,400 a month with a waitlist! Just insanity.

#17 Linda on 08.25.22 at 3:52 pm

However fleeting, if there is a RE comeback it will be good news for one older family member. Recently moved into assisted living; family abode up for sale but unfortunately missed ‘peak market’. Or not – given the hordes who apparently decided to walk away from legal commitments not accepting a lowball offer may have saved said senior a lot of stress.

The one silver lining is that said family member is not financially compelled to sell. Like many properties currently on the market price reductions have occurred, but if selling isn’t likely to occur within a reasonable timeframe the house could be rented out as an interim solution.

#18 Sam on 08.25.22 at 4:04 pm

I’m seeing the same. Houses selling faster recently on Zolo.ca. Selling for higher prices than previous month. I’m also seeing re listing at higher prices for both condos and houses. This is similar to 2018 and 2020. The real estate softening was short lived and then started to ramp back up.

#19 Mr Fox on 08.25.22 at 4:18 pm

It’s all about the cost of renting vs buying.
I’ve been reading recently about three young professionals trying to rent a 3 bedroom condo in Toronto, that was listed for $4000/month. They offered $4300 but lost the bid, because someone else offered $4400.
There are more people than houses. And like it or not, but the more immigrants we get, the worse the situation’s gonna get as well.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-track-exceed-lofty-2022-immigration-target-2022-08-24/

#20 Rook on 08.25.22 at 4:19 pm

Could you, perhaps, be asking the wrong question?

Maybe the real question to be asking is, “what are the odds that THIS time really is THE time to ‘buy now, or buy never?'”

I reckon it’s low, but I’ve been wrong on real estate every step of the way. And I’ve seen at least a half dozen stories over the last day or 3 talking about how high Canada’s population is going to be, and how we’re exceeding immigration targets. So maybe I’m like the Gartman indicator, only for real estate.

#21 Prince Polo on 08.25.22 at 4:20 pm

The two biggest property plops in memory happened in the early 1990s in Canada and a decade later in the States. In both instances the average price decline was 32%.

It would be interesting to note how far from the long term average, were the previous plops. I think we are way past that in metric zombieland and therefore, a mega-plop of 50+% would be simply divine. How else is the next generation going to use their brains?

#22 Quintilian on 08.25.22 at 4:21 pm

Hey Honest Realtor, populations growth started with the “Big Bang” yet real estate bubbles have formed and popped-always.

I’m sure if you were around during the Stone Age , you would be warning your prospects that a shortage of stones would soon follow.

Real estate downturns in Canada have occurred during high immigration levels.
Go hide in shame.

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.25.22 at 4:28 pm

@#240 James24
“Sail Away and crowdedelelvatorfartz, how ’bout you two bros just quietly quit from this blog comments section?”

+++
And miss all the admiring comments like this?

#24 Tony on 08.25.22 at 4:40 pm

I’d only be buying where the minimum wage is $7.25 U.S. an hour in America. Fort Wayne and Indianapolis, Indiana is where I’d buy.

#25 Tony on 08.25.22 at 4:49 pm

Re: #18 Sam on 08.25.22 at 4:04 pm

Nothing but a bull trap caused by the midterm elections in America being this November. We already see the cutting of the gasoline tax to artificially push down the inflaiton rate but what happens after the midterms end? You guess it, inflation and interest rates shoot back up. The ones buying now will be roadkill.

#26 The General on 08.25.22 at 4:55 pm

Speaking of house prices, what is a chateau in the Alps worth? What’s it worth with no power and heat? There will be huge buying opportunities in Europe, as they March towards famine, cold and war. Pennies on the dollar perhaps?

#27 Tony on 08.25.22 at 4:57 pm

I guess some people don’t watch the news.

Biden to cancel up to $10K in federal student loan debt for certain borrowers and up to $20K for Pell Grant recipients.

That will do nothing but push up the inflation rate and interest rates in America and push up our interest rates.

People buying homes need to do more research.

#28 TurnerNation on 08.25.22 at 4:59 pm

To engage more with the Mills our Forum Host could launch an OnlyFans account for the dog’s antics.
Or start a Tiktok cowboy boot ‘n line dancing series.
I hear Snapchap already has a Hirsute Curmudgeon filter available?? :-)

——

Boss — still I cannot return to the office. Not with this on the loose in my prefecture.

.One dead, two infected after meningococcal disease outbreak declared in Toronto (cp24.com)

Signed, WFH4EVER

—————-
Winding down the Former First World Countries. March 2020 marked the start. The Old System was shut down.
Listen to the Globalist Ghouls:

.”President Emmanuel Macron has warned the French populace that the end of abundance is here, and they should get used to living with less.
“What we are currently living through is a kind of major tipping point or a great upheaval… we are living the end of what could have seemed an era of abundance… the end of the abundance of products of technologies that seemed always available … the end of the abundance of land and materials including water,” he said in an interview. [emphasis added]….
In July, Macron told the public sector to cut down on its energy use and asked the private sector to do the same amidst an energy crisis that could’ve been avoided. This cut in energy use includes, amongst other things, turning off the streetlights at night and passing a new law regulating air conditioning.
Meanwhile, supermarkets have already begun cutting down on their energy use thanks to soaring prices, going so far as signing an agreement to reduce heating in their stores this winter.” (thecountersignal.com)

#29 jess on 08.25.22 at 4:59 pm

Having exhausted his legal appeals, Morse departed for Atlanta penitentiary on January 2, 1910. In Atlanta he was a prisoner alongside Charles Ponzi, who would go on to create an eponymous fraudulent financial scheme, the Ponzi scheme, and earn a legacy as one of the most famous swindlers in American history.

Because of Morse’s wealth and connections, he launched a campaign of lawyers, lobbyists and famous journalists like Clarence W. Barron

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Clarence-W-Barron

…who urged President William Howard Taft for leniency. In 1912 Morse became ill, and a panel of Army doctors declared that he suffered from Bright’s disease and other maladies and would soon die if he remained in prison. Taft signed his pardon, and Morse departed for medical treatment at Wiesbaden. However, it soon became known to the Justice Department that he had feigned illness by drinking a combination of soapsuds and chemicals. Taft later said that the case “shakes one’s faith in expert examination.”[22][23]

#30 Honest Realtor on 08.25.22 at 5:04 pm

Btw, within its forecast range, the StatsCan report also projects a reasonable possibility of 74 million Canadians by 2068.

I think it is more likely to be somewhat higher than this about 80 million at least. So much of the world is becoming uninhabitable as we speak, and we do not seem to be having much traction yet dealing with climate change. Great news for the Canadian economy, however.

#31 The General on 08.25.22 at 5:14 pm

“If we understand the mechanism and motives of the group mind, it is now possible to control and regiment the masses according to our will without knowing it.” – Edward Bernays Royal LePage puffery is deception at its finest. Paid advertising disguised as news. C.E.F. take note.

#32 Sail Away on 08.25.22 at 5:16 pm

#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.25.22 at 4:28 pm
@#240 James

“Sail Away and crowdedelelvatorfartz, how ’bout you two bros just quietly quit from this blog comments section?”

——–

And miss all the admiring comments like this?

——–

Dang. He’s drunk-working again.

In my office, James. Now.

#33 Jason on 08.25.22 at 5:16 pm

If nothing changes re: mortgage rules, we’ll continue to see declines in prices for awhile, and probably a slow recovery. However, the only constant is change. The bulk of voters want to own their homes, politicians want votes, therefore making homes “affordable” by adjusting mortgage regulations. Maybe the end of the stress test, maybe longer amortizations, FHSA set to roll out next year. But nobody knows, that is true.

#34 DON on 08.25.22 at 5:21 pm

Imo the realities and their associations are pushing the narrative as they have no sense of shame and said things would bounce back in September. Where I live the listings have increased with hardly any for sale signs. Folks were encouraged to pull their houses off the market and try again in the late summer\fall.

@Sam. Inflation wasn’t part of the equation in 2018 and 2020.

Stock investors are doing the same thing…looking for any dovish comments from the Fed’s to allow them to keep the blinders on and continue buying stocks in a stimulus fueled environment. God forbid they have to navigate investing in a non stimulus driven environment.

Rosenberg isn’t helping the situation but then again read his thoughts on transitory inflation from a year ago. You can pay a consultant to say whatever it is you might want them to say. Maybe Rosenberg is keeping his job prospects open. I can no longer stomach reading the Financial post.

#35 Victor Llearna on 08.25.22 at 5:22 pm

We need an app like Uber or Airbnb to replace real estate agents. the app would just need to link buyers and seller, coule be comprehensive and link to lawyers / banks whatever is needed to close the deal.
There is no way in this day and age we need to be paying these people 5% commission on million dollar houses.

#36 JT Dawg on 08.25.22 at 5:39 pm

I look forward to seeing if inventory swells this fall. So many agents suggesting their clients wait for a better market. So many delisting recently, i anticipate they will be relisted in September. As for rents increasing, its super misleading as rents are only getting back to previous peaks yet landlords costs are soaring. https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/toronto-on
Realtors are claiming its because buyers became renters and will ultimately become buyers because it is so expensive. Let’s face it, renting is still way cheaper than purchasing no matter how you spin things. Besides, there is also seasonality in play with college students competing for rentals and we also need to consider people moving back to the city as WFH expires. And then I read articles sponsored by the RE industry talking about how millenials want to own homes however it is important to note that 56% of them already own and of the remaining 44% it is likely that only a fraction of them will ever own. After all home ownership is roughly 70% of the population, the same statistic will likely be true for millenials. I think it is possible we may see a deadcat bounce this fall. The reality is that interest rates haven’t even truly hit the market and yet the market has already tanked. We haven’t seen even close to the full effect until people start renewing, preapprovals expire, and trigger rates are hit. All of the speculords who were cashflow negative before the pandemic will be bleeding to death. Until 1 bedrooms hit 3000 (unlikely), most condo investors are hemorrhaging at todays price of $2350. Without government intervention to improve affordability the market will likely stagnate or decline further. Even immigrants will not change the picture (very few have bags of money). Inventory at record lows and yet prices have been declining. We keep hearing the RE industry tell us that this time will be different, I think its still way too early to say the worst is over.

#37 DON on 08.25.22 at 5:40 pm

Here is one CBC housing article:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/millennial-housing-report-1.4672232

Ryerson uni did the report, but low and behold if you keep reading you will see this reference at the end.

“Clayton will present the report’s findings at an event hosted by the Ontario Real Estate Association, an industry group that funded the report, in Toronto on Tuesday.”

Then there is this article:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-millennials-want-to-be-homeowners-but-only-22-believe-they-can-do-it-in-the-city-survey-1.6560830

Low and behold>>>

“A new survey conducted by Leger on behalf of Royal LePage found that Canadawide, 68 per cent of millennials say owning a home is important to them, but only 29 per cent said they think it could happen in their current city or town. (Royal LePage Office)”

Sounds like the realtors are trying to drum up a shift. I would be looking for another career maybe snap up one of those vacant jobs.

#38 DON on 08.25.22 at 5:42 pm

#32 Sail Away on 08.25.22 at 5:16 pm
#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.25.22 at 4:28 pm
@#240 James

“Sail Away and crowdedelelvatorfartz, how ’bout you two bros just quietly quit from this blog comments section?”

——–

And miss all the admiring comments like this?

——–

Dang. He’s drunk-working again.

In my office, James. Now.

88888888888888 ball

Could be the same James that hated Smoking Man for some reason. Is it you James?

#39 Faron on 08.25.22 at 5:59 pm

#32 Sail Away on 08.25.22 at 5:16 pm
#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.25.22 at 4:28 pm
@#240 James

“Sail Away and crowdedelelvatorfartz, how ’bout you two bros just quietly quit from this blog comments section?”

“… In my office…”

Why, so he can watch you waste time commenting on this blog?

Anyhow James24, every circus needs a clown.

#40 NOSTRADAMUS on 08.25.22 at 6:01 pm

POISONED CHALICE.
In this uncertain climate the battle for a roof, any roof to put over your head seems the ultimate poisoned chalice. I recall the Everly Brothers, Phil and Don singing,” Crying in the rain,” a real tear jerker, now we have a new duet, Phil and Ron, meaning Phil Soper (Royal LePage) and Ron the realtor harmonizing together with,” Cathy’s Clown. ” Hmmm, could this move up the hit parade charts to be the #1 Hurtin song for 2022 ? New point. These self serving characters remind me of a Quote by Bertrand Russell, ” The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. Phil and Ron are much like a milk cat, spraying all over the barn walls. Are you not entertained ???

#41 Wrk.dover on 08.25.22 at 6:01 pm

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gedisk11_1070_100.jpg
_____________________________

Incoming from Africa.

#42 Reality is stark on 08.25.22 at 6:05 pm

It’s all over but the shouting.
Oil is the next shoe to drop.
Iran is coming on and the Saudi’s won’t stop pumping.
There’s tons of oil in Venezuela and Guyana.
Sorry to bust your bubble but this socialist backwater is toast and housing here is a farce.
There is another leg down guaranteed.
A realtor is a shill, drinks excessively, and knows nothing of economics or finance. Politically unaware and transactionally motivated. Why would you ever listen to an individual with such insolent character traits?

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.25.22 at 6:09 pm

@#36 Dawg
“I look forward to seeing if inventory swells this fall. So many agents suggesting their clients wait for a better market. ”
+++

Is that swelling inventory or a happy customer?

#44 iogitra on 08.25.22 at 6:11 pm

@Tony #24
What’s the reasoning behind buying RE only where minimum wage is low (Indiana)?

#45 Quintilian on 08.25.22 at 6:13 pm

Pumper says:
“So much of the world is becoming uninhabitable as we speak, and we do not seem to be having much traction yet dealing with climate change. Great news for the Canadian economy, however.”

Because Canada has mild climate right?

If in fact, the planet does warm up, we will be in a world of hurt, caught between the warm from the south and the descending Arctic air.

Unless Canadians can become experts at building and navigating submarines.

As for population….there does not seem to be a high correlation between population and high cost of housing.

India, USA, and Chinese Communist Party is trying to keep their bubble afloat but they seem to catch a snag.
Oops pop goes the bubble.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#46 Diamond Dog on 08.25.22 at 6:22 pm

#13 Nonplused on 08.25.22 at 3:28 pm

Student loan forgiveness @ $ 600 billion is inflationary, but spread out over 10 years meaning its $60 billion annual to taxpayers. Freezing student loan payback is also inflationary, but lets compare it to Republican moves in 2020.

Adding a whopping 5 trillion to the Fed balance sheet and expanding a further trillion plus (it’s 2.2 trillion last I checked) to the repo market is 10x the inflationary pressures right there. Adding a further 2.6 trillion Fed government deficit in 2020 didn’t help. All told, Trump racked up 8 trillion in newly minted Federal debt just on spending without the help of the Fed. (he said he would have it balanced by 2020, remember that?) Put it together and it’s over 8 trillion of newly minted money created by expanded credit conditions, further spawning the everything bubble in 2020 lest we forget.

Rapid increase in the money supply = inflation. It takes 1.5 to 2 years to hit the system and creates the mother of all wealth effects much sooner (helping crooked incumbents get elected I might add), but high inflation does follow and here we are in 2022. It’s why we have such high inflation today so when I hear the same critics go on about inflation that directly caused this mess to begin with, I wince and cringe because they’re stupid enough to think some of us don’t have memories or realize where inflation really comes from. Color me guilty for being unimpressed as well with the non thinking parrots of said arguments (no offense).

Offering further, you know who benefits besides students from Biden’s student loan handout? BANKS. It’s difficult to put a number on the defaults if nothing is done to erase student loan debt, but it’s a corporate finance bailout of sorts if one reads between the lines since it comes at a time when the Fed will be sucking money out of the supply. In other words, it’s an effort to keep defaults low enough to not disrupt the financial sector as a whole, 6 months to 3 years from now as asset values crumble and credit becomes expensive.

#47 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 08.25.22 at 6:36 pm

Debt forgiveness is literally deflationary. I am with Biden on this one. We should do the same in Canada as the whole thing was a scam anyways.

Explain the scam. – Garth

#48 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 08.25.22 at 6:47 pm

You darn well know that it did nothing but raise the cost of education and lowered its quality. No solipsistic argumentation will make saddling them with debt like that when it was pushed on them as an expectation, moral.

Where are the normal people on this blog? Hello? – Garth

#49 Steven Rowlandson on 08.25.22 at 6:58 pm

“So, you gotta hand it to realtors as a species. They exude optimism, adrenalin and hope. After all, it’s a tough gig. No salary. Hardly any benefits. Zilch pension. Eat-what-you-kill compensation. Low public esteem. Tire-kickers wasting your time. Blogs dumping on you. And when there’s a market rout, the income river runs dry and the land cracks. Disaster.”

What do you think? Put them out of their misery? Euthanize them? Or worse give them a real job where they get to sweat and may be bleed for their insignificant pay? Perhaps experience hearing the question on payday,” how much can you get by on?”
I know, that is being mean…. It is insult to injury and all of that.

#50 Diamond Dog on 08.25.22 at 7:08 pm

#45 Quintilian on 08.25.22 at 6:13 pm

My main concern with climate change is the Arctic warming up enough to melt Arctic ocean ice in it’s entirety.

It’s late August, but we can still see the atmospheric max temperatures above zero in the majority of the cap (go to Today’s weather forecasts and 2m max temp on second window):

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2max

Ice as we know, is maximum 0 C temp and has a cooling effect on the atmosphere above it. If we lose the cap, the ocean, given enough weeks, could rise to as high as 10 C at the surface. This would mean the cooling effect rises as much on the atmosphere. We saw this play out a couple years ago in the Arctic 100 miles off the Alaskan coast. If the entire Arctic lost it’s cap for 6 weeks or more, Canada would be a much warmer place. Unfortunately, we are closer to this than most believe.

Below was the state of the Arctic ice cap in Sept 15th 2020 (U.S. Navy sonar source):

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/2020/ictn2020091512_2020091600_930_arcticictn.001.gif

There has been a modest recovery of Arctic ice since 2020 due to La Nina’s effects, but La Nina will not last forever. The fear is that as the planet continues to warm and neutral or El Nino conditions return, the Arctic ice cap will continue it’s death spiral and once the Arctic ice cap is fully melted, the Earth enters a new climate state.

In that new climate state, if you go back to Climate Reanalyzer and click onto Precipitable water and scroll down to the world map, what you will see is humidity at it’s most dense around 5 to 10 degrees N in summer and 5 degrees S in the winter months. If you click onto Precipitation/clouds and compare it with Precipitable water maps, you will see the direct correlation of tropical rainfall.

If we lose our Arctic cap (I now believe 2027 is the first year, 5 years away), this band of tropical humidity will shift to 25 to 30 degrees N in summer and near zero over winter by 2030. Once again, look at the world map. Ask yourself what kind of difference it would make in the Northern hemisphere if Arctic air warmed by 10 C or higher during summer. Tropical rains shifting 20 degrees N higher during summer than it is now… accelerated permafrost melts… Greenland ice melts…. more intensified storms at higher latitudes… slower jet streams…. hots hotter, dries dryer, wets wetter, climate on steroids, this is our future if we don’t get it together and its looking like we will not come close. If anything, emissions will keep rising into the late 20’s or “peak people”, whichever comes first (determined by the world’s ability to grow crops). For those of us still alive in the late 2020’s and 30’s, I fear we will likely see this scenario play out in our lifetimes.

#51 Ponnaps on 08.25.22 at 7:17 pm

Before any rebound, every crash goes through a series of dead cat bounces.. this is just the first of many before this crash is finally done..

#52 Cowtown Cowboy on 08.25.22 at 7:25 pm

#219 Stone on 08.25.22 at 9:31 am
DELETED (You are no longer a guest with commenting privileges on this site)

Well that’s one less idiot we have to endure..

#53 JT Dawg on 08.25.22 at 7:39 pm

@#43 crowdedelevatorfartz

If you mean by happy customer that I will be buying real estate, the answer is No. I already own real estate. I feel bad for the younger generation. RE has been in a bubble for a long time. It never should have escalated to where it is today. It frustrates me to see people who think they are RE geniuses when in fact their gains were almost entirely luck, as a result of artificially low rates and the slimy RE industry. My property is worth triple what I paid for it, and I can assure you it is not worth as much as I can sell it for. I think the RE industry needs to be cleaned up. I am dead set against bidding wars as well as the practice of listing below market value and re-listing like a spoiled brat when you don’t get the price you want. I continue to hear RE agents use their crystal ball and claim the market will come roaring back due to immigration. The crash of 88/89 can never happen again RE agents claim? While I can’t predict which way prices will go, there is still significant downside risk. I plan to continue living in my home so whether the market goes up or down makes no difference to me.

#54 David on 08.25.22 at 7:41 pm

Wondering where you found the 83% purchase with financing: im surprised that 17% of purchases are cash. Thanks!

#55 Diamond Dog on 08.25.22 at 7:48 pm

#45 Quintilian on 08.25.22 at 6:13 pm

Should have provided this link and explained it more clearly in the last paragraph. This is present precipitation (tropical rainfall):

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#prcp-tcld-topo

Note how it corresponds with humidity (scroll down to see it):

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#pwtr

Now imagine the highest bands of humidity and tropical rainfall at 30 N instead of 10 N. The southern states and Northern Mexico would experience tropical rainfalls at the height of summer. It’s likely that tropical rainfall would move north of the Sahara desert into Southern Europe and the Mediterranean. Himalyas maybe… who knows east of the Mediterranean. Certainly around the equator and south, it would be much drier. As said, new climate state.

#56 Nonplused on 08.25.22 at 8:02 pm

#30 Honest Realtor on 08.25.22 at 5:04 pm

“Btw, within its forecast range, the StatsCan report also projects a reasonable possibility of 74 million Canadians by 2068.”

Ah, projections. Everyone loves to grab a ruler and draw lines straight out. But that is what everyone does.

What we do know for certain is that population growth and energy consumption are highly correlated. Very highly. At least on a world wide level. And we also know that TPTB plan no more energy for you, only for them. That implies a future of famine and population collapse, not expansion, at least on a world-wide level.

But as they say below sea level; “Things are very hard to predict, especially the future.”

#57 Dragonfly58 on 08.25.22 at 8:03 pm

Normal people ? I think lots of Canadians used to be quite normal. Middle class circa 1990 – 1995 . { and at least 3 or 4 decades prior} Then a few decades of slow but sure downward mobility. Followed by a big drop off at retirement for many, just around the corner for many more.
Resentful cynics, perhaps even a bit bitter as our standard of living erodes over time. The more time that passes the worse it gets for a good number of us. A small number are doing very well , 20 -25% at most ? 5% are doing very well indeed. For all the other 75% or so it is onward and downward.
As a retired person I now have a yearly income less than what I had in 1995. A house used to be $225,000 – $350,000 in 1995, these days 1.5 mill – 3 mill. Similar but obviously not so extreme with virtually every other expense.
If this situation does not eventually get to you then you are truly a man of steel. Or perhaps homeless.

#58 the Jaguar on 08.25.22 at 8:12 pm

‘But is there any truth to Ron’s report?’ —- Of course. Ron has been a stand up guy in reporting his observations on this blog. No reason to doubt him now. Thank you for all your contributions Ron. They are keenly appreciated.

‘In both instances the average price decline was 32%. In each country it took between 24 and 36 months for markets to bottom ..’ —– Yes, but never in recent history has the psychology of ‘instant gratification’ run so hot, especially in certain demographics. If you are wired to believe that real estate can only go up, abandoning that concept isn’t easy. Especially from a generation where ‘participation awards for everyone’ were given out with no unpleasant discussions about the possibility of sitting down to a banquet of consquences. Seriously, this just seems like the real estate version of ‘buy the dip’. Don’t be fooled.

Don’t smart guys like Jeremy Grantham and others detail that when prices fall it doesn’t always play out like an anvil being dropped off a cliff? Sometimes it’s like a slow slide over time with a few upwards blips.

Doesn’t mean the overall trend isn’t going to be down 32% from start to finish. You are still ‘going down’. Just pray for pilot expertise and a soft landing.

Air Canada Flight 163, the ‘Gimli Glider’ began to slide from 35,000 feet. Air Transat flight 236 was another example. Bless you Captain Bob Pearson & Captain Robert Piché. Hope you are paying attention, Tiff…

These events play out over time. Not overnight. Maybe quicker now that we live in the digital age. But the autumn months always hold surprises. Like October 19, 1987. Too many peeps posting here weren’t around to witness it. October is always earthquake month. The earth’s crust begins to cool. Things happen.

#59 chalkie on 08.25.22 at 8:15 pm

It Took 22 Years for Prices to Recover from The Last Toronto Real Estate Crash
The 1989 Drop Took 13 Years To Recover…ish
The last real estate crash occurred shortly after prices in Toronto peaked in 1989. At the peak, the average sale through the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB), was $273,698. Over the next 7 years, the average price dropped and finally bottomed in 1996 at $198,150. If you bought at the peak, and sold at the bottom – you lost $75,548, or roughly 27.6% of your purchase. It took 13 years for the average price to recover in Toronto.
Inflation Adjusted, That Number Is 22 Years
Full Story
https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/it-took-22-years-for-prices-to-recover-from-the-last-toronto-real-estate-crash/
Don’t jump for joy, if the prices have leveled out a little right now, you have not seen anything yet baby, the slide is still in motion.

#60 jess on 08.25.22 at 8:20 pm

Home Partners of America, the single-family landlord owned by Blackstone Inc., will stop buying homes in 38 US cities,(bloomberg)
—–

#61 millmech on 08.25.22 at 8:22 pm

#15 Flop
Looks great those houses on McIntosh Drive, enjoying the magnificent train whistles as they approach both Yale and Evan road crossing at all hours of day/night which this lovely house is strategically located between.
Do not forget about the noisy brakes, shunting of rail cars and rattling of lights and dishes multiple times a day as the train passes a mere forty feet from your house.
The homeless encampment feature that is a mere stones throw away and uses that same train corridor as a super highway to traverse through every homeowners yard to collect donations to support their medical condition all the while leaving needles and human waste in your lovely picturesque backyard oasis.
Deals like these are extremely rare and I am shocked that they sold for such a discount.

#62 Dream on...it's existential for Russkies on 08.25.22 at 8:34 pm

It’s all over but the shouting.
Oil is the next shoe to drop.
Iran is coming on and the Saudi’s won’t stop pumping.
There’s tons of oil in Venezuela and Guyana.
Sorry to bust your bubble but this socialist backwater is toast and housing here is a farce.
There is another leg down guaranteed.
A realtor is a shill, drinks excessively, and knows nothing of economics or finance. Politically unaware and transactionally motivated. Why would you ever listen to an individual with such insolent character traits?

Yeah right….lool

Oil at 90 is oil at 45 pre COVID scam.

U think the Arabs are idiots like the westerners??

Hahaha….

#63 Warm Fuzzies on 08.25.22 at 8:50 pm

Long time reader. First or second time poster. My two cents about trends I have been noticing in a small city I’ve been watching in bunnypatch about 120 km or 1.5 hours from Toronto (not sure if that is considered bunny patch that far out)…houses priced right sell in a few days (not many of those) and all the others have been languishing for months as they gradually drop their prices 50K at a time…fewer new listings per day in August…the start of bidding wars again! Really? Are these realtors for real? In my opinion, realtors who use bidding wars in times like these are realtors who don’t have a clue how to really sell. I thought we were done with that insanity. Apparently not. Yeah, I’m one of those that hopes they don’t get any offers on offer night. That’ll learn them.

#64 Centris removed Lifestyle button... on 08.25.22 at 9:01 pm

Centris.ca just quietly removed the Lifestyle button they used to have until a few days ago. Sales must be _really_ slow, they really need us to click on every single home in the search results grid/list!

PS here is what it used to look like: https://www.centris.ca/en/blog/centris-ca/how-to-use-the-lifestyle-feature-on-centris-ca?uc=1

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.25.22 at 9:16 pm

@#53 Dawg
Total Agreement.

6pm BC Global News

Kelowna:
A prolific offender has been arrested again.
He has 423 police files and 64 charges pending.
BC Mayors are fed up.
They are waiting for a response from the Federal Liberals and the Province as to WHAT WILL THE COURTS DO?
“Catch and release” isnt working.
Vancouver Police have arrested the same violent offender 5 times in one week for assault, assault with a weapon, break and enter, on and on and on….. and the Court system keeps releasing him.

What does it take?
A Canada wide class action lawsuit?
Or
An election.

#66 Schadenfreude on 08.25.22 at 9:17 pm

#34 Don “God forbid they (equities investors) have to navigate investing in a non stimulus driven environment.”
——————————————
#53 JT Dawg “RE has been in a bubble for a long time. as a result of artificially low rates and the slimy RE industry” +++++ BoC and CMHC stooges

Don’t forget to support and vote for the party that will remove the clowns allowing this hyper stimulus, change the RE laws to get rid of the dead beats posing as “professionals.”

#67 twisted_sisters on 08.25.22 at 9:21 pm

#60 Jess “Blackstone Inc., will stop buying homes in 38 US cities”
————————————————–
Does this also include Canada? better pass CREA several boxes of tissues.

#68 mike from mtl on 08.25.22 at 10:08 pm

#35 Victor Llearna on 08.25.22 at 5:22 pm

…There is no way in this day and age we need to be paying these people 5% commission on million dollar houses.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Exactly. What is this 1888? Why pay some slimeball five figures for basically setting up not even a craigslist ad of nearly a million smackers of something that sells itself to with zero accountably/responsibility for?

Seriously, zero recourse (you’re on your own) and this is totally acceptable for decades still.. really?

#69 wallflower on 08.25.22 at 10:31 pm

I’m with Team Dawg.
Things have yet to get ugly.
And need to get ugly.

The numbers speak data.
The agents speak garbage.

In my southern Ontariowe city the numbers of specuvestor condo rentals maintaining all time volume highs. Hurt is coming…tail of the dragon is the specuvestors.
Windshield splat coming our way.
Messy.
Clean-up on aisle 2 through 19.

#70 Toronto1 on 08.25.22 at 10:45 pm

I’d chalk it up to increased activity before rate hike a d so e rate holds expiring.

Not at bottom yet. … Even most recent dump in 2017 took approx 14-16 months to see real bargains so I would say next summer should be safe to buy little down side

Realistically after September there will be two more hikes…. Remember that this past June and July were ano.olies people are always going to buy real estate…

My take by next summer the downside will be very limited even if prices stay flat for a while.

The biggest unknown for me is inflation…., Not looking good for Europe this winter Nat gas prices up were going to feel it here too……. If Russia and Ukraine Tampa up so will price of gas…. I don’t buy the peak inflation theory yet… One

#71 gfd on 08.25.22 at 11:00 pm

Everything is hunky dory . . . . “As interest rates rise, Canada’s banks are setting aside millions to deal with a wave of consumer loan defaults”

https://www.thestar.com/business/2022/08/25/canadian-bank-earnings-dented-by-rainy-day-funds-amid-recession-worries.html

#72 Cowtown Cowboy on 08.25.22 at 11:42 pm

Jeezusss, just watched a CTV piece about a young dr who was so burnt out over the last 2 yrs that he had to take 6 months off………what kind of bambi nation are we creating???

#73 David on 08.25.22 at 11:56 pm

I definitely see a pick up in activity, nice homes are selling, even a close friend got a decent offer this week.

Waiting to buy an older teardown for new construction but the prices haven’t met my target yet, hopefully they will by Christmas

#74 DON on 08.26.22 at 12:04 am

#66 Schadenfreude on 08.25.22 at 9:17 pm
#34 Don “God forbid they (equities investors) have to navigate investing in a non stimulus driven environment.”
——————————————
#53 JT Dawg “RE has been in a bubble for a long time. as a result of artificially low rates and the slimy RE industry” +++++ BoC and CMHC stooges

Don’t forget to support and vote for the party that will remove the clowns allowing this hyper stimulus, change the RE laws to get rid of the dead beats posing as “professionals

********
Blank Stare!

#75 Ringmaster on 08.26.22 at 12:45 am

#39 Faron on 08.25.22 at 5:59 pm
#32 Sail Away on 08.25.22 at 5:16 pm
#23 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.25.22 at 4:28 pm
@#240 James

“Sail Away and crowdedelelvatorfartz, how ’bout you two bros just quietly quit from this blog comments section?”

“… In my office…”

Why, so he can watch you waste time commenting on this blog?

Anyhow James24, every circus needs a clown

___________

True, but including yourself, we ended up with three of them!

#76 SoggyShorts on 08.26.22 at 1:06 am

#9 ElGatoNeroYVR on 08.25.22 at 2:40 pm

Let me start you down the right track of FIRE. Plan to live 3-4 months outside of Canada ,flights ,accomodations,things to do.
Just do the planning and you will discover lots of interests/hobbies outside of the office. Do the actual sabattical and you will come back with even more interests/hobbies …..

*******************
Yup. I took winter off for a few years before pulling the trigger. Despite spending half of each of those in Alberta I still was never bored.
Certainly didn’t miss working.
A solid test, and now 22 months after we FIRE’d still not feeling bored despite retiring into a global travel shut-down.

#77 Steven Rowlandson on 08.26.22 at 7:21 am

RE#50
Arctic ice is mostly at or below sea level and won’t raise sea levels much if at all. The exception being Greenland and a few other islands and there is absolutely nothing humans can do about it.
Man all your glory, concern and arrogance is fleeting and you are all mortal. The earth will do just fine and it belongs to God, not to you.

#78 Steven Rowlandson on 08.26.22 at 7:30 am

“So, you got to hand it to realtors as a species. They exude optimism, adrenalin and hope.”

Come to think of it Communists and NDP types are like that also. What else do capitalists and communists have in common?

#79 Useless on 08.26.22 at 8:06 am

Hey Garth. You didn’t mention how long it took for the US to recover in 2008?

#80 Sail Away on 08.26.22 at 8:10 am

Here we go: SpaceX and TMobile team up:

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/44bf87a5-9df5-3d28-a1cd-802120f14aa9/spacex-t-mobile-to-connect.html

Just like Tesla, first-mover status. Never bet against Elon.

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.26.22 at 8:30 am

@#72 Cowboy
“…..so burnt out over the last 2 yrs that he had to take 6 months off………what kind of bambi nation are we creating???”

+++

Yep.
Sad.
I thought Doctors could handle reams and reams of govt paperwork.

But be careful with your Bambi slur.
People who identify as Hoofed Ruminants may find that offensive and report you to the Ministry of Hate Crimes.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjdz6SEweT5AhWjAzQIHdPxCjcQFnoECDIQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rollingstone.com%2Fculture%2Fculture-features%2Ffurry-fandom-tiktok-gen-z-midwest-furfest-924789%2F&usg=AOvVaw3WMhLsO3TXXWRAzZg8UQMs

#82 TurnerNation on 08.26.22 at 8:36 am

This country no longer exists. March 2020 cemented it. ‘Kanada’ is a mere open air tax slave farm. Get over it.
Everywhere I go I see only two flags. Rainbow flag and Ukraine flag. True story. Do a count today.
Gartho’s even got stolen.

—– Health care? The government echoes exactly what I’ve been typing here. Take a CAB to the border!!

“https://winnipegsun.com/news/provincial/manitoba-inks-three-out-of-province-deals-for-hip-knee-replacements
Manitoba inks three out-of-province deals for hip, knee replacements.
Patients who are willing to travel could get their procedures earlier by going to northwestern Ontario, North Dakota and even Ohio.”

—- Population? Yep apparently a goal is 100 million by 2021. And boy will we have a damn fine climate to boot.
Hahah more people = better health care system, got it?

https://www.centuryinitiative.ca/why-100m
“Growing our population to 100 million by 2100 would reduce the burden on government revenues to fund health care, old age security, and other services. It would also mean more skilled workers”

#83 Dogs Not Barking on 08.26.22 at 8:57 am

Looks like the Germans will be getting a visit from
Russia’s most feared and reviled tourist: General Winter

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/im-afraid-czech-president-blames-green-madness-energy-crisis

That this could have all been so easily avoidable boggles the mind.

Instead we have politicians doubling down on the same Green Insanity that brought us to this.

#84 Dharma Bum on 08.26.22 at 9:06 am

“Meanwhile desire remains hot.” – Garth
—————————————————————————————————–

Exactly. Always did. Always will. That’s what causes all the problems. The suffering. The pain. The stresss. The dukkha.

https://www.lionsroar.com/deep-dukkha-part-2-the-three-kinds-of-suffering/

It’s an old story.

Eliminate desire.

Free yourself.

#85 slick on 08.26.22 at 9:39 am

Dead Cat Bounce.

BOC should take some responsibility for these house prices, and impending drop. Remember when Tiff said ‘interest rates will stay low for a long , long time’.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.26.22 at 9:46 am

The west coast goes a little more looney tune.

A possible homicide on the 8pm sailing?

https://vancouver.citynews.ca/2022/08/26/bc-ferries-cancellations-tsawwassen-police-incident/

The Ferry is still in lock down.
No one allowed off.
All sailings to Duke Point- Tsawwassen on hold.

#87 the Jaguar on 08.26.22 at 9:56 am

JOB OPENING:
Meanwhile, Governor Tiff Macklem announced plans to reorganize the Bank of Canada’s governance structure by bringing in outsiders to its main policy-making council, on a shorter-term basis.
The central bank said Monday it will replace Deputy Governor Tim Lane, who retires next month, with an external candidate who will work part-time on a twoyear contract.+++

Also this:
The relentless demand for labour is a green light for the Bank of Canada to move ahead with another sharp increase to interest rates at its next decision. Market pricing puts the odds as high as 80 per cent for a 75-basispoint hike on Sept. 7, which would bring the policy rate to 3.25 per cent — a full three percentage points above the emergency pandemic low it was resting at until March.

And this:
No one knows for sure what chair Jerome Powell will say in his speech on United States Federal Reserve monetary policy Friday. One thing is clear, though: the potential for marketwide shock is sky high. +++

Kind of exciting, in a financial kind of way….

#88 the Jaguar on 08.26.22 at 10:08 am

Speech clue: ” Perception is reality”. Peeps have to be convinced inflation is being brought under control so they can make financial decisions. Hammer comming down in the short term.

#89 Sail Away on 08.26.22 at 11:32 am

#87 the Jaguar on 08.26.22 at 9:56 am

And this:
No one knows for sure what chair Jerome Powell will say in his speech on United States Federal Reserve monetary policy Friday. One thing is clear, though: the potential for marketwide shock is sky high. +++

———

Well, it appears the markets are none too excited about what he’s said so far.

Fun fact: the first central bank conference in 1982 was held in Jackson Hole because the organizers were trying to entice Fed Chair Volcker to attend and speak, and since Volcker was an avid fly fisherman, they chose a fly fishing utopia. The rest is history.

#90 Klaus Schwab on 08.26.22 at 11:32 am

DELETED (Anti-vaccine, anti-immigrant)

#91 millmech on 08.26.22 at 11:47 am

I would not be surprised to see another 75 basis point increase in September followed by two more 50 basis points increase by end of year. Next year lots of loans up for renewal and moving from sub 2% to 8% will be an eye watering $3000 a month increase in payments. Co workers already freaking now paying $3000 month and to have it double upon renewal will hammer them hard.

#92 RE_Investor on 08.26.22 at 11:53 am

Do you wonder if it’s too late to get into Toronto Real Estate? I’m getting close to cashing out of my detached properties in Toronto. Once the Toronto Zoning bylaws get a major revamping from the newly elected mayor, the provincial plan to build more housing will get the boost. Sorry NIMBYists, you lost!
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/john-tory-announces-5-point-plan-to-build-homes-faster-tackle-affordability-in-toronto-1.6038694

So in case you don’t understand, neighbourhoods with a detached house sitting on a nice size lot, will get the zoning that allows for lot splits. Of course each lot now can have up to 4 units (garden, laneway, and 2 units in the main house). So my detached lots could have 8 units each. Better still, the zoning now allows for up to 3 stories in height, but the missing middle housing will be future filled with multi-unit 5 to 8 story buildings. Sounds great for Toronto! With the new subway lines and the Eglinton LRT (due 2030), all this new zoning built housing will all Toronto to adapt to the large population growth that is expected.

#93 the Jaguar on 08.26.22 at 11:54 am

Some last recap snippets:

““The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy,” Powell said.”
“another unusually large increase could be appropriate.”

“We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored,”
“He cited former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker in saying that part of the central bank’s job in returning the economy to price stability “must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations.”
Volcker was ultimately successful in his own fight against sky-high prices through what he called “a lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy.” The current Fed is hoping to act strongly now in order to avoid such an outcome, Powell said.

“Powell emphasized a need to rein in inflation expectations because of the way they influence consumer behavior and can in turn fuel price pressures further” +++

Jaguar analysis: 1. ‘moderate demand & keep inflation expectations anchored ‘ is about avoiding consumers reacting to cost push inflation. 2. ‘lenthy period of very restrictive monetary policy’ means it must be avoided at all costs, which is where ” act strongly’ comes in, i.e. “the way they influence consumer behaviour”. Damn those consumers always running amok!

Oh…and on the wars of propaganda front, media can ‘spin’ their version till the cows come home, but at the Fed level a more realistic approach has to be undertaken with respect to impact. Likely outcomes have to be taken into account based on facts, not propaganda. As energy goes, so goes GDP. Amen.

#94 Dr V on 08.26.22 at 12:14 pm

Go Jerome.

#95 Crystal ball futurist on 08.26.22 at 12:57 pm

The real estate bull in Canada is nearly dead. It has probably opened it’s eyes one last time. The bear is now wide awake and rising. The fear all around is quite noticeable. Everyone know in their guts that the tide has changed. Soon the fear will morph into panic.
The coming winter says the Crystal Ball, will bring in a lot of action. A lot of folks will be wiped out. It wont be pretty.

#96 neo on 08.26.22 at 1:24 pm

Are you factoring in Global Thermonuclear War? You may want to adjust your assumptions about the future.

Russian government is far more effective at programming the population than Canadian government.

#97 Dr Yoo on 08.26.22 at 3:54 pm

Go Jerome De Brrrrrr!

#98 Shawn on 08.27.22 at 11:06 am

Seeing the good…

#93 MaybeItsNotSoBad on 08.26.22 at 5:08 pm

Just an anecdote, but I stopped for a burger at the Harvey’s in New Minas yesterday afternoon. …

************************************
Great post about the happy and productive workers at Harvey’s in New Minas Nova Scotia.

I see great workers often and I try to compliment them when I can. Speedy cashiers… Friendly retail workers… There are many jobs that I could never do and could never even be trained to do and I respect those workers.

Yesterday I had a 50 foot tall spruce tree taken down. One guy did most of the work. He worked from the bottom up lopping off branches with the chain saw that he carried on a tool belt when he needed to climb higher. He had a rope or loop around the tree and climbers on his feet. He had to be careful not to let the large branches hit him as he sawed them off. When the trunk was fully stripped of branches and he was almost 50 feet up he started expertly cutting off sections. He was always in control of where and when things were falling. The whole thing was clearly dangerous. Afterwards I complimented him on his skills and asked where he learned how to do it.

We should all notice the good in our lives more often.