Wusses & cowboys

Evil trolls, bots and IA notwithstanding, GICs are hot. The wusses love them. The cowboys mock ‘em. Deposit rates have zipped over 4% for one-year locks, and more if you’re willing to bury funds away for longer. Of course, inflation is still around 8%, so everybody’s losing money – especially if the GIC sits in a taxable non-registered account.

But wait. Financial markets are scary, right? Stocks plopped again Monday as central bankers gather for their annual Jackson Hope gabfest.

The fear is simple: (a) the big rally we saw in the last six weeks was but a headfake inside a bear market fueled by investors high on hopium that CBs are turning dovish, yet (b) those bankers are undeterred. Interest rates will continue to rise aggressively and quantitative tightening (dumping bonds to remove stimulus, goosing yields) has yet to begin. So, (c) you need to hide under a rock. Or a GIC. At least you can make four per cent.

All that’s perfectly understandable. If you can’t hack seeing short-term declines in your portfolio, go hide. But the reality is markets have recovered from dips 100% of the time, the biggest gains happen when they abruptly turn. Missing those days really hurts long-term performance. Finally, if you don’t need the money immediately – to buy a house, finance a wedding, pay your kid’s tuition or buy a Porsche – why worry about a paper loss? You’re just being jerked around by headlines. Ignore it all. Look at your accounts in, oh, May.

But some people obsess about such things. So let’s indulge them for a few paragraphs.

First, what about this interest rate thing? The Fed makes its next announcement in the third week of September. Our guys go on the 7th. The latest inflation numbers in both countries may have been lower, but expect no rate pause, slowing or reversal.

Fed officials have been crystal recently that the hammer will come down two, maybe three, more times in 2022. In Ottawa it’s an identical expectation, with the CB forcing the chartered bank prime well over 5% right after Labour Day. Also consequential, as mentioned, is the QT the American bank is about to launch, reducing its balance sheet and rolling off billions and billions in debt taken on during Covid.

Second, why did we get a huge rally in the financial markets if these dangers persist? Because corporate profits were better than expected. The job market is on fire. Consumers are spending up a storm. Inflation numbers peaked. People got bored with the Ukraine war. And it sounded – a teensy bit – like the CBs were getting dovish. So uppa she went.

Then there are the technical analysts to blame. (Yes, my esteemed suspender-snapping colleague Ryan is a technical devotee). The charts are bullish. Short-term price momentum (often heavy on human emotion) is suggesting a new bull market has started. The June/.July rally was boffo. Ninety per cent of stocks passed their 200-day moving average. Meme stocks shot higher. Party time, bro.

But the macro guys scoff. This kind of analysis looks at the economic fundamentals, monetary and fiscal policy, and seeks basic reasons why markets would rise. They don’t see them. Yup, interest rates will plateau and likely fall at some point. Earnings will blossom as economic growth swells. But we’re not there yet, they say. Markets gained on the backs of just four big stocks, they remind. Real interest rates are still hugely negative. Stay bearish.

Here are analyst Cam Hui’s two potential scenarios:

The benign outcome will see the market undergo some choppiness for several months in the manner of the 2010 and 2011 bottom. The more bearish scenario calls for a second leg down in the manner of the post-9/11 rally as the full effects of the recession reach culmination.

Nobody should ever hector you into investment decisions. The online equity cowboys, your stock-flipping crazy BIL or a financial advisor who makes money on every transaction. Feeling worry is a legitimate emotion, and if that leads you into the arms of the GIC-flogging bank lady or the kid at the CU, so be it. We all gotta sleep.

But just recall what we say here so damn often: the big risk for the vast majority of people in Canada (given their current level of financial assets) is not losing money in a correction that lasts three months or even a year. It’s running out of money before you croak.

Retirement is shockingly long. Twenty to forty years. Seven in ten of us have no dependable corporate pension. CPP is basically lunch and gas money. And the final chapters of a long life could surprise with some big LTC bills. The longer you hide money in an asset paying less than inflation with no tax-efficiency and zero capital growth, the higher the odds you may fall short at age 76. That would suck.

Unless you already have a million or three, growth is needed. Fearing the present, squirreling away your nuts, makes the future harder. Be conservative. Don’t be fearful. Not worth it.

About the picture: “Meet Luna,” says Lynn. “My elderly parents have owned dogs for most of their lives but had been dogless since the start of the pandemic. Now this little nine-week-old gem has come into their lives. It’s a calico chihuahua. I never knew that such a mythical beast existed.”

122 comments ↓

#1 Blobby on 08.22.22 at 3:35 pm

Or, spend all your money, have fun, and drink, eat and party yourself into an early grave.

Then you wont need to worry about retirement, and die with a smile on your chubby face.

#2 Caffeine Monkey on 08.22.22 at 3:37 pm

“The wusses love them” is explained by the cognitive bias known as loss aversion. From Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion):

“Loss aversion is the tendency to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains. The principle is prominent in the domain of economics. What distinguishes loss aversion from risk aversion is that the utility of a monetary payoff depends on what was previously experienced or was expected to happen. Some studies have suggested that losses are twice as powerful, psychologically, as gains…

Humans are theorized to be hardwired to be loss averse due to asymmetric evolutionary pressure on losses and gains: “for an organism operating close to the edge of survival, the loss of a day’s food could cause death, whereas the gain of an extra day’s food would not cause an extra day of life (unless the food could be easily and effectively stored)”.”

#3 Søren Angst on 08.22.22 at 3:43 pm

“Stocks plopped again Monday as central bankers gather for their annual Jackson Hope gabfest.”
-Garth

Well there Generalissimo Turner, except for …

yeah _ _ _

Crude Oil Front Month, YTD *
+20.48%
Aug 22, 7:26:57 PM UTC

and ya Garth “Farragut” Turner:

‘Damn the Torpedoes – Full Speed Ahead’

could not agree more.

—————

* VIX is for wusses and

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i85ob2DackI

#4 tkid on 08.22.22 at 3:48 pm

How will the worsening droughts in Europe and China impact the markets? Reports coming out of China are not good.

#5 Big Bucks on 08.22.22 at 3:50 pm

The Dow Jones from January 1970 to January 1980(10 years)gained less than 5% in total.The Dow has just gone from 7000 to 37,000 over the last 13 years.If someone can get 5.25% which is 5.83% after compounding(on a 5 yr GIC) they sound like pretty astute wussies to a smart(off the sauce)cowboy.

#6 Sam on 08.22.22 at 3:50 pm

So much for the bounce in markets. It appears that markets only go up if Fed suggests they will stop money printing and bring rates back to 0%.

#7 TurnerNation on 08.22.22 at 3:53 pm

This weblog must remember The Golden Rule. Take a person of average intelligence. Now recall that half a population is below this level.

— From the Killing us Softly Dept. Trust the Science. In the Former First World Countries we must be kept dumb and passivee.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/fluoride-childrens-health-grandjean-choi/
“The average loss in IQ was reported as a standardized weighted mean difference of 0.45, which would be approximately equivalent to seven IQ points for commonly used IQ scores with a standard deviation of 15.* Some studies suggested that even slightly increased fluoride exposure could be toxic to the brain. Thus, children in high-fluoride areas had significantly lower IQ scores than those who lived in low-fluoride areas. ”

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/health-law-and-business/hundreds-of-small-pharmacies-report-trouble-stocking-adderall
Adderall Supply Crunch Hits Pharmacies on Delivery ‘Disruptions’
“Nearly two-thirds of community pharmacies had trouble ordering the popular attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder drug Adderall at the end of July and beginning of August, at a time when demand is at all-time highs.”

— We were to be so healthy though? After 2 years of “Rules” breaking up normal human behavior, commerce and activities?

.Canada is running out of children’s Tylenol because of high demand (www.ctvnews.ca)

.Silent crisis of soaring excess deaths gripping Britain is only tip of the iceberg (uk.news.yahoo.com)

.Colds, coughs, stomach bugs: why are so many of us getting ‘winter’ diseases this summer? (theguardian.com)

https://europe-cities.com/2022/08/18/portugal-breaks-mortality-record-sociedade/
Portugal breaks mortality record – Sociedade
In June, Portugal was the country in Europe with the highest excess mortality rate…

#8 Andrewski on 08.22.22 at 4:01 pm

Yes, party on Garth! Hector, party on too!

#9 Apocalypse NOW on 08.22.22 at 4:04 pm

What planet are you on, Garth? Is it sunny there 24 hours a day?

Everywhere on Earth it looks like a crisis is looming.

72% of US economists project serious problems, with a recession by 2023.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/22/economy/nabe-economists-recession-inflation/index.html

And Canadians are cutting way back on purchases and say they could not even handle an extra $1000 in costs.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/four-in-five-canadians-cut-spending-amid-higher-costs-poll-1.1808853

All with epic pandemic debt, huge environmental calamity costs, escalating wars and social divides.

Putin is plotting his revenge for the bombing yesterday, in a way that will bring his new nukes to the forefront. We are entering peak season for wars to begin.

PREPARE

#10 Stroller on 08.22.22 at 4:06 pm

“high on hopium”

Is that your bon mot? I wish I’d thought of it.

#11 TDSB best school board in the world on 08.22.22 at 4:09 pm

GICs will hit about 5.5% for a 5 year, then go down. The 10 year yield is lower than a 5 year for my bank.

Me and my wife do nothing in the public sector, are protected by the unions and corrupt elements is Toronto Police, and we have a handsome pension after we retire at 50.

It’s also very hard to fire us.

We are public school teachers.

#12 Linda on 08.22.22 at 4:11 pm

Luna is a pretty pup & knows it:)

LTC. Funny thing – & this may have changed since I first heard about it – but those with assets have to fork over for said care. Meanwhile, those without assets have the government pick up the tab – while receiving the same level of care of those paying for it. Of course, getting a placement in a LTC bed is the real issue. The number waiting for such beds far exceeds the supply. So those with assets have the option of securing private care – IF they can find it in the first place – whereas those w/o assets either get priority due to having no where else to go or languish in who knows what conditions until such time as a bed can be found.

#13 Faron on 08.22.22 at 4:18 pm

#172 Russ on 08.22.22 at 3:15 pm
Faron on 08.22.22 at 1:15 pm

Maybe you can answer this, the Antarctic ice core research shows that for the past 400,000 years that every time the earth atmosphere gets over 400 PPM of CO2 the climate shifts into an ice age.

Can you help us understand why it is different this time?
This blog has a reoccurring meme, it is never different this time…

I will answer this first because it seems to be in good faith (see below for why that matters).

First, we know from direct measurement that in the last 800k years CO2 hasn’t breached 400ppm until the last decade. So, your premise is faulty.

https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/images/air_bubbles_historical.jpg

Regardless, CO2 and temperature feedback on eachother yet are paced by the earth’s orbital nuances (in the before times). Glacials have followed CO2 peaks in the past in spite of the high CO2 concentration. Certainly not because of it. Glacial onset happens when orbital forcing is sufficient to initiate glaciation on North America and the albedo feedback thereafter overwhelms the CO2 effects. Again, this is with 75% of today’s CO2.

What worries scientists is that the CO2 temp feedback is currently pushing hard upward and there is no chance of an orbital save for some time. It’s becoming likely that Earth will skip the next glacial cycle because of excess CO2 in the atmosphere, thus giving us a truer anthropocene that may last ~120kyr.

I have a strong belief that any person should be able to question any science conclusions without being ridiculed.

We’ll Russ, if you ask questions of experts and are provided answers It is the job of the question asker to accept those answers unless there is abundant external information that doesn’t align with said answer. That’s called acting in good faith and will net you respect and access to far more interesting topics than this current one. Currently there is not abundant evidence contrary to anthro climate change. Alternative hypotheses have been thoroughly tested and don’t hold water. At all. None. Zero. It is your duty to read the literature to see that. Or, if you are not inclined to do so, you have to take my expert word. It’s your choice. This is identical to contracting with an engineer on a project and then, not liking the cost, deciding “nah, I’ll just wing it.”

Unfortunately, the same questions are asked continually (questions largely cooked up by O+G funded “scientists”) and the answers given by people like me or more knowledgeable than I are ignored despite the reams of data and published work supporting said answers. Maybe you can see how, after 40 years of that, we scientists are a tad skeptical when it comes to viewing a discussion as good-faith question asking. The actual religion here is among people like you who refuse the facts much like fundamentalist Christians refuse the fossil record. With that kind of refusal, any discussion is impossible.

It’s also extremely tiring in the way that being repeatedly asked to explain gravity to an earth-bound doubter. Yes, it is identically analogous. Sigh.

Finally, it’s always engineers. Always. Do they have some higher form of intellect or analytical ability? No. Are some of them pompously entitled by their “spherical cow” level of physics and culvert-building prowess? Yes. Exhausting.

#14 Faron on 08.22.22 at 4:29 pm

#168 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 2:56 pm

Oh, you noticed! Thanks for reading.

Had to fill the time while preparing the money bags for the latest SAGI gusher. Your signal was one of a couple that prompted me to go long VIX futs Thursday. Another was OpEx and the action in the meme stonks suggesting the gamma drop off would move things this go around.

Went leveraged inverse SPX after your SAGI on the 10th (bit early, so I was nervous last week). Took a sec, but closed it for a handy profit. Closed the VIX as well. I’m never greedy enough and VIX may we’ll run here, but the futures are often in contango so holding them has a severe time penalty.

Much obliged sir. Glad you could help.

#15 jess on 08.22.22 at 4:30 pm

Marble Freedom Trust

A new group led by a prominent conservative lawyer has received $1.6 billion from one donor — the largest single contribution to a politically focused nonprofit that’s ever been made public, and a fortune that could be used to fuel right-wing interests. https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/22/politics/dark-money-donation-conservative-group-invs/index.html

https://www.opensecrets.org/
Read more OpenSecrets News & Analysis: 501(c) groups · Dark Money · Investigation

Trump’s political operation continued to steer donor money to firm involved in the Jan. 6 rally

By Anna Massoglia
July 14, 2022 9:59 am
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2022/07/trumps-political-operation-continued-to-steer-donor-money-to-firm-involved-in-the-jan-6-rally

#16 Nonplused on 08.22.22 at 4:32 pm

Unfortunately there is still a lot of accumulated “bezzle” to come out of the markets. Particularly real estate and some of the techs. An asset’s price should reflect its economic utility. This is not currently the case with most Canadian real estate and many high flying names like Tesla. They will deflate.

(No, I don’t hate electric cars. If you want an electric car, get an electric car, and a Tesla is probably a good choice. But it is just a car, and it sucks up as much in the way of resources as any other car, and charges using predominately CO2 emitting electricity sources just like any other electric device. But it is a car and I hear they drive nice, so if you want one and can afford one knock yourself out. Just don’t blame me when you discover they don’t charge themselves.)

So where can one find the assets without “bezzle” at the moment? Well, energy (the real kind, not pinwheels) and resources are a good bet. Oil and gas companies are printing money like a tech company and they aren’t even drilling! Farmers are getting squeezed by high fuel and fertilizer costs but people are still buying food. But if you have a balanced Garth ™ portfolio you already have exposure to such things.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-stock-market-bitcoin-and-housing-fake-wealth-bezzle-will-be-wiped-out

#17 Don Guillermo on 08.22.22 at 4:40 pm

#79 Flop… on 08.21.22 at 4:36 pm
24 Don Guillermo on 08.21.22 at 1:17 pm

Hey Don, yeah I was pleasantly surprised by my experience in Turkey in the summer of 2000 for six weeks.
%%%%%%%%%%
I’m glad you caught it at a good time as did we in the late 90’s and great you got to see Gallipoli. We went back in 2015 for a few weeks and it wasn’t the same. It’s turned very theocratic. The women we worked with were very proud of the freedoms they had. Many kept a small photo of Ataturk on their desk to remind them why they had them. Ataturk would not have liked Erdogan.

#18 ogdoad on 08.22.22 at 4:54 pm

While all y’all worry about retirement, gic’s, teslas, how to appear better, netflix, internet geniuses and how duped we are I’ll be smile hunting on my new v-star…Don’t hate, it just makes it worse. And, yes, I have a very popular hug that will make you remember…the BEFORE days..costs a little extra but the results…oh, mama!!

OAN, As I would like to live until at least 100 (man…wow, that’s a long way away – let’s go!) I hope your analyses is correct. And, that perhaps you have a vision for a future that is changing faster than our little minds can fathom….do you?

Og

#19 NOSTRADAMUS on 08.22.22 at 4:56 pm

REALTORS- MOURNING AND THE 5 STAGES OF GRIEF.
For 12 long uninterrupted years realtors have experienced one glorious money year after another. However, lost in the mists of time was the realization that nothing lasts forever. Now the clouds have rolled in and the sun no longer shines. The subsequent rise in interest rates along with the withdrawal of bank liquidity has put an end to the good old money days of only being an order taker. As many realtors have developed little if any selling skills they are at now floundering and at their wits end. Today the vast majority of realtors are in mourning, praying for the return of the good old money days.
Being of a passionate nature, I have taking the liberty of researching the 5 stages of grief: The Kubler-Ross Model. The intent being to assist the struggling realtors to better understand the grieving process. Many mental health experts and researchers have dedicated years to studying loss and the emotions that come with it.
In her 1969 book, “On Death And Dying,” Kubler- Ross examined the five most common emotional reactions to loss. The five are as follows.
(1) DENIAL- An immediate reaction, you might doubt the reality of the loss at first.
(2) ANGER- Feeling intensely angry might surprise you or you loved ones.
(3) BARGAINING- You might think to yourself that you’re willing to do anything and sacrifice everything if your life is restored to how it was before the loss.
(4) DEPRESSION- During the depression stage, you start facing your present reality and the inevitability of the loss you’ve experienced.
(5) ACCEPTANCE- Is more about how you acknowledge the losses you’ve experienced, how you learn
to live with them, and how you readjust your life accordingly.
Healing from loss is possible, but it does take time and patience. Even if you’re having a particularly hard time with it, resources like counselling and support groups can help you cope when you’re going through the five stages of grief. Good Luck.

#20 Penny Henny on 08.22.22 at 5:00 pm

That dog is merle not calico.

#21 Cash is King on 08.22.22 at 5:02 pm

LET THEM ALL CRASH AND BURN NEXT TIME THEY WON’T TAKE THEIR CUSTOMERS FOR GRANTED.
ENJOY EATING EUCALYPTUS LEAVES LIKE KOALAS FOR THE NEXT 20 YEARS.

#22 Rook on 08.22.22 at 5:02 pm

Semi-pro-tip: if you’re really bound and determined to play stock trading mogul, carve off 5,000 or 10,000 of your money, put it into a non-registered account, and gamble it away that way.

Don’t make stupid decisions with your retirement or education or dirt down-payment money. Instead, make smart ones like having Mr. Turner or someone like him manage the lion’s share of your funds, while you play with some ‘it-won’t-kill-me-if-I-lose-it’ sum of money.

Note: I am not a GIC bot, I am merely behind a vpn.

#23 Mattl on 08.22.22 at 5:16 pm

Strongly disagree that consumers are spending up a storm. Retail report for July was flat, adjusted for inflation, negative. And best case scenario for Q3 GDP seems to be 1% which would mean through 3 quarters the US economy contracted – all the while re-opening, and at full employment.

Strange times – low/negative growth, inflationary, consumers starting to clutch their wallets. Very interesting times ahead. Have economic conditions looked like this at any point in recent history? How can you have 8.5% inflation, full employment and not have consumer spending follow?

Will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. Maybe a big nothingburger.

#24 JOHN PICKETT on 08.22.22 at 5:17 pm

Your comment that “markets have recovered from dips 100% of the time” is inaccurate. Was not the Tokyo Nikkei over 39,000 in 1989? 33 years later a lot of Japanese investors are still waiting for the big rebound. There is absolutely no reason why that cannot happen in North America. There a number of reasons why we are all in deep trouble that get glossed over and ignored. The huge divide in the States between Republicans and Democrats that could lead to social violence. The huge power that environmentalists hold over our elected representatives that precludes resource developments to the detriment of First Nations and our national economy even though the Greens get 5% of the votes. No tax dollars means no improving health care pure and simple. Our House of Commons giving Ukraine a billion dollars that will enrich their gangster/politicians and not on Canadian health care. Sorry people, but the Ukrainian/Canadian Council should not be dictating our foreign policy. Your are either a Canadian or a Ukrainian, you cannot be both. So, I will keep my money in GIC’s for the time being along with gold and natural gas. With gas hitting north of $9 mcf we are in for a rude awakening come our Canadian winter. How to bring things back to normalcy? Try an arms embargo of Russia and Ukraine for starters. The word needs BOTH countries on line and exporting cheap Russian gas to Europe. Remember, wherever NATO has gone in the last 20 years it has only brought death and destruction in its wake: Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq. NATO simply should not be in Eastern Europe. Maybe Russia should be given membership in the EU and not Ukraine. That would solve a lot of problems! JOHN PICKETT

#25 Victor Llearna on 08.22.22 at 5:22 pm

Imagine if all the sheep learned to hunt / live off the land and stopped using money all this investing stuff would be pointless. And all those government workers (with large panama accounts), billionaires and millionaires living off dividends would starve when currency no longer worth anything

#26 T-Rev on 08.22.22 at 5:23 pm

Ryan appears to be a good dude and I trust your character judgement, but tech analysis is on par with astrology, palm reading, and whatever Russell Crown’s character did in “A Beautiful Mind”. Great way to huck stocks/investment advice, short on providing market beating insights.

There’s certainly a small subset of quants that have beat the market, and some become legendary for their calls, but like other investing approaches the alpha is likely luck mistaken for skill in 99.99% of cases. The other 0.01%, yep, skill… but try repeating it consistently. Unless you’ve uncovered some irregularities in the American housing and mortgage markets a-la Big Short (and that wasn’t tech analysis, it was plain-old fundamental analysis), you’d best stick to steady contributions in a B&D and forget about the fancy colored graphs.

Got a buddy, professional mathematician, who’s frequently showing me his Fibonacci retrace graphs, don’t know if he’s beating me or not but I feel the answer is “not”.

‘Beating the market’ and ‘adding alpha’ are not what we strive to achieve. Nor should you. It’s pure vanity and hubris. We use technical, fundamental and macro analysis to ensure balanced and diversified portfolio weightings are nuanced correctly. We leave the hyperbole to Internet guys like you who know everything. – Garth

#27 Joe on 08.22.22 at 5:33 pm

DELETED (Ageist)

#28 Kuato Lives on 08.22.22 at 5:33 pm

To steal Michael Burry’s stats on why we’re all pooched:

On plumbing previous lows:

1970 – Some crisis some low
1975 – S&P hits 10% lower than 1970 low.
1998 – LTCM Crisis
2002 – S&P bottom 17% lower than 1998 LTCM low
2009 – S&P bottom was 13% lower than 2002 low

2022/2023 – 15% lower than the Covid low would put the S&P at around 1862 pts. We’re at 4138 as of today. The Shiller PE now has an average of 16. It’s nominal value is 9. Peak to trough fall of 61.4% could be expected….

On bear market rallies:

-12 of top 20 Nasdaq 1 day rallies happened during the 78% drop from 2000’s
-Top 9 of the top 20 [email protected] 500 1-day rallies happened during the 86% drop from the 1929 top.
-After 2000, the Nasdaq had 16 bear market rallies >10% averaging 22.7% before bottoming down 78%.
-After 1929, the DOW had 10 bear market rallies >10% averaging 22.8% before bottoming down 89%

On trading volume during selloffs:

Top to bottom:
MSFT traded 5.2x its shares outstanding by 2002.
3.3x by 2009
0.5x so far in 2022

AMZN
5.7x by 2002
6.6x by 2009
0.9 so far in 2022

JPM
3.0x by 2002
5.9x by 2009
0.7x so far in 2022.

On debt:

Credit card debt has grown to a record setting pace back to pre cover peak = consumer recession and earnings trouble.

The conclusion here is that the good earnings from last quarter were an illusion and that, given the light trading volume, the real selling hasn’t even started yet. If we saw a 60% drop in the S&P, those GIC’s would be looking awfully attractive. I’m personally 80% cash and 20% gold in a wait and see approach to Burry’s big boom. If it happens, I’ll be ready to deploy and if it doesn’t, I take my inflation hit and lose whatever gains the market provided in that same period. The potential of a 50-60% gain is worth the 6-8 months of lost balance gains, IMO, but will see. I’m usually wrong.

.02

#29 Love_The_Cottage on 08.22.22 at 5:33 pm

Just heard a commercial on the fan 590 Toronto saying people should move to Alberta.

If the province is so great, why do they need to advertise?

#30 Niagara Region on 08.22.22 at 5:42 pm

#20 Penny Henny
That dog is merle not calico.
_______________________
Referring to Luna as “calico” was a deliberate strategy as part of the short narrative that I sent Garth but that he cut likely due to space constraints. I reported that the pup looked so much like a cat when she first arrived that all the birds in the backyard fled–which actually happened.

Ignore the know-it-alls who get off making others feel diminished. Social media has rendered everyone less civil. Less worthy. – Garth

#31 T-Rev on 08.22.22 at 5:47 pm

@ #1 Blobby on 08.22.22 at 3:35 pm:
You’re not wrong there either. Maybe it’s my relative youth but I’ve long thought nearly everything that makes life worth living, with the exception of learning (love to read and learn), requires good health and I’m not sure if 20+ years of decline ending in LTC is for me. I’m fact I know it’s not. Since I was in my late teens I swore that when the day came that I looked in the mirror and thought “you know, I think I’ve only got a few more years left where I can do this” that I was going to sell it all, head out on a one-way adventure. Visit every dangerous (and exciting) place on the planet, start riding motorcycles at high speed 365 days a year, and let the end come when it comes. Will depend on how much my kids and grandkids need me, but if once I can’t help them anyway… I’d rather go out with a bang. I honestly can’t see it any other way. I’m in my 40s now and still feel the same way. Based on my observations of others, that adventure probably starts sometime in my 60s, and hopefully lasts a decade, but we’ll see.

There’s a good chance that my perspective changes in another 20 years because that seems to be the way most people end up, but old and slow and dependent just aren’t for me. I won’t let myself get to that point- I’d be so miserable. I want to meet my maker with my mojo intact.

And, fortunately, it’s all about you. – Garth

#32 Felix on 08.22.22 at 5:54 pm

This photo looks close enough to a cat, so we’ll call it 4 days in a row with no obvious pics of dogawful mutts.

Good work, Turner.

#33 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.22.22 at 5:57 pm

@#29 Love the Cottage
“If the province is so great, why do they need to advertise?”
+++

Apparently , when you live in the Center of the Universe aka Toronto….everywhere else is terra incognita.

#34 T-Rev on 08.22.22 at 5:59 pm

Beating the market’ and ‘adding alpha’ are not what we strive to achieve. Nor should you. It’s pure vanity and hubris. We use technical, fundamental and macro analysis to ensure balanced and diversified portfolio weightings are nuanced correctly. We leave the hyperbole to Internet guys like you who know everything. – Garth

Love ya Garth. Wasn’t meant to be a shot at Turner Investments or Ryan. Just my observation on tech analysis- I get a kick out of the talking heads on BNN talking about the “90-day moving average”, “price support”, “double top”, “breakthrough level”, etc. I know you’ve read “A Random Wlak Down Wall Street”, and I’m merely reiterating a point from that book, and many others as well as this blog, that all the tech analysis in the world likely isn’t going to help you one bit in your investment goals and likely should be ignored. PE? Sure. Interest rate projections? Yup. Macroeconomic analysis? It’d be irresponsible not to as an investment advisor (which I’m not). But by the time Ryan has generated a new chart, there’s some AI quant working for Goldman who has already exploited any potential arbitrage and there’s likely nothing left. Anyway, I frequently admit I don’t know much, and I’ve never chased alpha. Just good old low MER index funds that I check on occasionally and rebalance over Christmas drinks once a year. And I regularly admit I don’t know jack squat. But my life experience has thus far given me no good reason to pay heed to tech analysis.

Peace brother.

#35 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 6:07 pm

Maintain financial fitness, yes, but physical fitness is also equally important.

Physical capability degrades minimally over adulthood, with the big caveat: the majority of westerners slowly and consistently pack on an extra 20, 30, 40 pounds without noticing.

As a test yesterday, I carried a 30lb backpack on the usual Benson run/hike, equating to a 205lb me at 6′-0″. What a difference! Holey moley.

Extra weight is a huge detriment. Similarly destructive to one’s retired life as big fees are to finances. Get rid of it. Start today. Willpower.

Rich, happy and fit is the target combo.

#36 Penny Henny on 08.22.22 at 6:14 pm

#30 Niagara Region on 08.22.22 at 5:42 pm
#20 Penny Henny
That dog is merle not calico.
_______________________
Referring to Luna as “calico” was a deliberate strategy as part of the short narrative that I sent Garth but that he cut likely due to space constraints. I reported that the pup looked so much like a cat when she first arrived that all the birds in the backyard fled–which actually happened.

Ignore the know-it-alls who get off making others feel diminished. Social media has rendered everyone less civil. Less worthy. – Garth
//////////////

I was trying to make others feel diminished? How rude of me. I thought I was making a simple statement.
Maybe it is you Garth who is less civil on your own forum.
Hope you aren’t like that in real life.

Worse. – Garth

#37 Don Guillermo on 08.22.22 at 6:20 pm

#29 Love_The_Cottage on 08.22.22 at 5:33 pm
Just heard a commercial on the fan 590 Toronto saying people should move to Alberta.

If the province is so great, why do they need to advertise?
********
Oh for Dog sakes, even Porsche advertises.

#38 Faron on 08.22.22 at 6:21 pm

#34 T-Rev on 08.22.22 at 5:59 pm

Beating the market’ and ‘adding alpha’ are not what we strive to achieve. Nor should you. It’s pure vanity and hubris. We use technical, fundamental and macro analysis to ensure balanced and diversified portfolio weightings are nuanced correctly. We leave the hyperbole to Internet guys like you who know everything. – Garth

TA, as is true for any strategy, needs statistical backing. Where it exists, TA can give an edge. Unfortunately, the open market erases edge almost instantly.

That said, TA reveals underlying processes of human psychology and, when options notional is very large as it was in ’20-’21, the positioning of option dealers. The former is revealed by Bollinger bands, RSI and other oscillators while the latter appears in so-called “levels”. The S and P has a stair step form because of the influence of option positioning and dealer hedging on the underlying.

Unfortunately for most is that even with statistically significant alpha, by the time anyone parses the info and trades, the edge is gone. Plus, the excess trading will kill you in the long run because it implies time out of market.

Then you have the SAGI…

#39 Adam on 08.22.22 at 6:30 pm

Don’t be a GIC-bully. Not everyone can be a cowboy. Everyone has different tolerance for risk. If someone can’t take a dump because they are so constipated and constantly watching the stock market 300 days a year then no amount of money will make that better. If GIC’s help you sleep at night, then I say, go for it.

#40 Adam on 08.22.22 at 6:35 pm

Okay, I’ll eat crow here. My post above was unfair. I didn’t read the whole blog. Garth goes on to say: “Feeling worry is a legitimate emotion, and if that leads you into the arms of the GIC-flogging bank lady or the kid at the CU, so be it. We all gotta sleep.”

I knew deep down you weren’t a GIC bully Garth. Don’t go to the dark side.

#41 Reality is stark on 08.22.22 at 6:36 pm

I really hate to say I told you so.
Seems like the premiers all got together because the Fed is not giving them enough money for health care.
But a simple look tells you the Fed has no money. In fact they are running deficits the last I checked.
The Fed is on a simple mission to transfer wealth from risk takers to the risk averse. They are very successful with this asinine policy. They also pander to social justice warriors which is also idiotic. The evidence indicates that this same contingent gets increasingly more depressed as they age compared to a similar contingent 50 years ago.
Obviously this contingent really doesn’t know what they want.
So if the premiers can’t suck cash from the Fed, they have to transfer less to the municipalities. This is where your real estate gains (what is left of them after the recent slaughter) come in handy.
The municipality needs that money and they will take it, mark my words.
I have laid this out to those of you in this steerage section for years but only now is anyone taking notice.
No value has been created in this socialist backwater. I sure hope you took my advice and at least have some exposure to the mighty US dollar.

#42 Observer on 08.22.22 at 6:51 pm

#13 Faron on 08.22.22 at 4:18 pm
#172 Russ on 08.22.22 at 3:15 pm
Faron on 08.22.22 at 1:15 pm

Maybe you can answer this, the Antarctic ice core research shows that for the past 400,000 years that every time the earth atmosphere gets over 400 PPM of CO2 the climate shifts into an ice age.

Can you help us understand why it is different this time?
This blog has a reoccurring meme, it is never different this time…

I will answer this first because it seems to be in good faith (see below for why that matters).

First, we know from direct measurement that in the last 800k years CO2 hasn’t breached 400ppm until the last decade. So, your premise is faulty.

https://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/images/air_bubbles_historical.jpg

Regardless, CO2 and temperature feedback on eachother yet are paced by the earth’s orbital nuances (in the before times). Glacials have followed CO2 peaks in the past in spite of the high CO2 concentration. Certainly not because of it. Glacial onset happens when orbital forcing is sufficient to initiate glaciation on North America and the albedo feedback thereafter overwhelms the CO2 effects. Again, this is with 75% of today’s CO2.

What worries scientists is that the CO2 temp feedback is currently pushing hard upward and there is no chance of an orbital save for some time. It’s becoming likely that Earth will skip the next glacial cycle because of excess CO2 in the atmosphere, thus giving us a truer anthropocene that may last ~120kyr.

I have a strong belief that any person should be able to question any science conclusions without being ridiculed.

We’ll Russ, if you ask questions of experts and are provided answers It is the job of the question asker to accept those answers unless there is abundant external information that doesn’t align with said answer. That’s called acting in good faith and will net you respect and access to far more interesting topics than this current one. Currently there is not abundant evidence contrary to anthro climate change. Alternative hypotheses have been thoroughly tested and don’t hold water. At all. None. Zero. It is your duty to read the literature to see that. Or, if you are not inclined to do so, you have to take my expert word. It’s your choice. This is identical to contracting with an engineer on a project and then, not liking the cost, deciding “nah, I’ll just wing it.”

Unfortunately, the same questions are asked continually (questions largely cooked up by O+G funded “scientists”) and the answers given by people like me or more knowledgeable than I are ignored despite the reams of data and published work supporting said answers. Maybe you can see how, after 40 years of that, we scientists are a tad skeptical when it comes to viewing a discussion as good-faith question asking. The actual religion here is among people like you who refuse the facts much like fundamentalist Christians refuse the fossil record. With that kind of refusal, any discussion is impossible.

It’s also extremely tiring in the way that being repeatedly asked to explain gravity to an earth-bound doubter. Yes, it is identically analogous. Sigh.

Finally, it’s always engineers. Always. Do they have some higher form of intellect or analytical ability? No. Are some of them pompously entitled by their “spherical cow” level of physics and culvert-building prowess? Yes. Exhausting.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
We have the brains, but not the social resolve to deal with anthropomorphic climate change. Going nowhere as fast as we got where we are. Sad.

#43 Happy Gramps on 08.22.22 at 6:52 pm

I have been a long time follower of this blog. As a senior my income is just under $18000 per year. I am able to save at least $300 per month from this income. I pay my rent, eat well, go out for meals twice a month, Have a bottle of good scotch always at the ready, and visit family in other parts of Canada at least once a year. I sometimes refer to myself as having a Scottish control of my money as I only spend it on need, not want. So I fail to see what everyone is complaining about with this inflation stuff. I think the youth of today have an expected life. If you can’t afford a house , or a car, then just quit complaining. You have no rights to these things. Suck it up.

Now, contrary to Garth’s focus on having enough money to live on comfortably, the level of comfort is as each of us is prepared to accept. Although I only have about $18000 in tfsa’s, I am quite comfortable looking to my future. This includes some trips to Europe, Central America and the fair east. Any thing can be done with minimal amounts of money.

So for all the complainers out there, just look at your priorities, forget that this society owes you anything and accept that your not entitled to anything.

Then, perhaps you can end up being a Happy Gramps, like me.

#44 Keith on 08.22.22 at 6:54 pm

In 2008/9 the stock markets went down to the tune of roughly 40%, peak to trough. During that time of financial turmoil, this blog was an importance reminder of the holy trinity of your core portfolio – balanced, diversified and invested for the long term. Stay calm and carry on.

Any research into market will tell you markets go up two years out of three, and down one year out of three, sometimes dramatically. Most of the gains are on a relatively few days in a year. Charlie Munger points out that you have to be able to stomach a 50% decline in the value of your stock holdings in order to be in stocks in the first place. It’s not a smooth ride.

Despite much caterwauling, the government is on the side of business which is why stocks have the best track record for long term investing. Tax wise, the breaks that exist are for dividend income and capital gains, outside registered accounts. Buffett says it’s a mistake to bet against America(n business). He’s right, Charlie Munger is right and our bearded blog host is right.

BTW, this blog is free and offers up macro research that’s a pain to look up on your own. Thank you Garth.

#45 Scooter on 08.22.22 at 6:57 pm

Greetings Garth, Turner Team, blog dogs and trolls!

Thanks for providing a relatively safe space from all the craziness!

I live in Atlantic Canada (small town NB) and there continues to be a strongly vocal opinion (mainly held by home owners and real estate agents) that hoards of central and western Canadians are continually moving to Atlantic Canada. But I seen this local listing and I had to share:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/24649705/468-hillside-drive-miramichi?fbclid=IwAR0TmVfX2K_jwFeognEQU4uOCrA65RmjMPcuK22YTjGb-81cQDmlfI4SdwU

Look at the price history…. Pretty good price appreciation!

#46 604sam on 08.22.22 at 7:05 pm

I’m still traumatized by the thought of one day belonging to a GIC club. *shudders*

#47 Chameleon on 08.22.22 at 7:07 pm

#32 Felix on 08.22.22 at 5:54 pm
This photo looks close enough to a cat, so we’ll call it 4 days in a row with no obvious pics of dogawful mutts.

Good work, Turner.

I know I’m looking for and expecting a photo of a cat today, and clearly Garth pulled a fast one on us.

I swear, I thought it was a cat at first glance. It’s as close to an identity crisis as a dog can get.

I wonder…after yesterday’s Fakery blog is something else at play here?

Whatever the case, The Meowing has ended.

I has been __0__ day(s) since a dog photo.

All dogs and no butterflies make Garth a dull boy.

#48 GIC on 08.22.22 at 7:10 pm

OK, I know what GFC means.

I know what [email protected] means.

I know what FOMO and FOOP is.

What is GIC?

Garth Idolizes Cats?

:-)

#49 Doug t on 08.22.22 at 7:15 pm

#1 bloody

Well there is something to be said for that lol

#50 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 7:20 pm

#42 Observer on 08.22.22 at 6:51 pm

We have the brains, but not the social resolve to deal with anthropomorphic climate change. Going nowhere as fast as we got where we are. Sad.

——–

Humans will always and forever exploit resources that are available for exploiting. And without a major population reduction, the rate of resource use will continue to increase until scarcity occurs.

Just accept it. Climate change emergency is a bit of a religion… but, since practicing the religion won’t reduce the global use of fossil fuels… what’s the point other than being all Debbie Downer-y?

Buy land in the northerly latitudes, expect massive immigration influx, enjoy your own life. The actual issue is and always has been population increase. The solution to that is unacceptable, so…

Que Sera Sera

https://youtu.be/xZbKHDPPrrc

#51 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 7:29 pm

On the bright side:

-Alaska’s sockeye salmon are at historic record levels
-Australia’s Great Barrier Reef has greater coral growth than ever before recorded
-The Salish Sea last month recorded record numbers of whales
-The polar bear population is doing fantastically well as they adapt to less ice

Adaptation!

Always Look on the Bright Side of Life:
https://youtu.be/PUHTzEv9V-s

#52 Stone on 08.22.22 at 7:42 pm

#24 JOHN PICKETT on 08.22.22 at 5:17 pm
Your comment that “markets have recovered from dips 100% of the time” is inaccurate. Was not the Tokyo Nikkei over 39,000 in 1989? 33 years later a lot of Japanese investors are still waiting for the big rebound. There is absolutely no reason why that cannot happen in North America.

———

That’s why you should hold a B&D portfolio. Various equity indexes, various fixed income.

BTW, I am not a B&D bot. Lol

#53 Mad Money Cramer on 08.22.22 at 7:53 pm

Look, the market is going to bottom out in November. We are still in a bear market. We just experienced a bear market rally out of nowhere.

All of the main stream recession stuff will be happening in early 2023 while the market is full on bull by that point.

Hang tight. Watch what the fed does and deploy the cash stack in the next few months. Timing is everything.

#54 Observer on 08.22.22 at 7:58 pm

#50 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 7:20 pm
#42 Observer on 08.22.22 at 6:51 pm

We have the brains, but not the social resolve to deal with anthropomorphic climate change. Going nowhere as fast as we got where we are. Sad.

——–

Humans will always and forever exploit resources that are available for exploiting. And without a major population reduction, the rate of resource use will continue to increase until scarcity occurs.

Just accept it.

^^^^^^^^^^^^
I agree, it is “baked” in. The difference between you and me is that I give a shit.

#55 TurnerNation on 08.22.22 at 8:01 pm

Anyone got today’s GIC Rates handy? ;-)
Too soon….say where’s the IG rep.

———–
Gather ’round kids. Let’s talk about what this weblog won’t. -> Demand Destruction <-

We've been living it. The whole point of the economic lockdowns. You see, 'climate change' is not fast nor scary enough.

You want to travel now? Try it. Passports cannot be renewed. Your flight might be cancelled. Hours of corralling on the tarmac, in the customs holding pen.

Charge your electric car? Slow down Comrade. Electricity prices are set to rise 10-fold (see Europe). In Kanada, we have the Karbon taxes.
Permanent QR code begs forever soft lockdowns (Lockdown Lite). Or was it all for your health??
You will able to afford…ESSENTIAL Travel Only.
Yes. You were taught this 2020-21. #stayhome right?

How about consumer spending? No, no no. New luxury taxes (autos etc) to start. With inflation added who may afford what? You may just afford the Essential Items.
You were trained on this just last year, recall it Comrade?

— — We knew this in Q2 2020. Posted it here, seen on another blog:

"“We’re in an experiment. We’re now getting a glimpse of what a high tech, low carbon, limited mobility civilization looks like. The technocrats must be loving this – they’re going to have so much data to analyze after the experiment is over. Other major interest groups will use this experiment to further their agendas …”"

#56 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.22.22 at 8:05 pm

Better cancel your ski trip to Europe this Winter.
I just read that, due to energy constraints, the fancy-schmanzy ski resorts in Europe will not be heating the seats of the ski lifts the coming season.
The horror.
Can you imagine the Royal “bums” getting their behind frozen.
That shows you how energy is wasted on non-essential stuff.
I could mention at least 20 more wasteful uses of energy.
But that’s for another time.

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.22.22 at 8:07 pm

Trump is running out of lawyers to defend him.
Most of them are in jail, or bankrupt defending him for free.

#58 Observer on 08.22.22 at 8:10 pm

Just to clarify prior comment, we can turn the ship around, we just have to care enough. But too many who do not are calling the shots.

#59 Faron on 08.22.22 at 8:12 pm

#51 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 7:29 pm

Wow, between that ignorant garbage (would gladly detail why) the prior comment’s FYIGM attitude and your obsession with weight akin to an insecure teenager, it may be a good time to stop embarrassing yourself

Or stick to your areas of expertise… which are… ummm… jussa sec… drawing a blank here, little help anyone? Tax avoidance?

#60 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.22.22 at 8:28 pm

7 TurnerNation on 08.22.22 at 3:53 pm
This weblog must remember The Golden Rule. Take a person of average intelligence. Now recall that half a population is below this level.
———————————
That’s not the average. that’s the median.
And, the Golden Rule states that “The one who has the gold, makes the rules”.
Got it?

#61 AK on 08.22.22 at 8:43 pm

“Deposit rates have zipped over 4% for one-year locks, and more if you’re willing to bury funds away for longer.”
====================================

I prefer the Canadian Banks covered call ETF, which pays 6.7% In monthly dividend income.

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.22.22 at 8:51 pm

@#51 Sail Away
“Always Look on the Bright Side of Life:”
+++
I do!
30 years ago 10 beer would be a good start.
Now?
2 beer.

#63 Dr V on 08.22.22 at 8:51 pm

35 Sailo

“As a test yesterday, I carried a 30lb backpack on the usual Benson run/hike, equating to a 205lb me at 6′-0″. What a difference! Holey moley….. Extra weight is a
huge detriment.

Power-to-weight. I hate it when flyweights suck my wheel on the flats then drop me on the climbs.

https://www.trainerroad.com/blog/power-to-weight-ratio-for-cyclists-when-watts-kg-matters-and-how-to-improve-it/#:~:text=Power%2Dto%2Dweight%20ratios%20vary,men%20and%205.5%20for%20women.

#64 Game Warden on 08.22.22 at 8:53 pm

Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 7:29 pm

On the bright side:

-Alaska’s sockeye salmon are at historic record levels
-Australia’s Great Barrier Reef has greater coral growth than ever before recorded
-The Salish Sea last month recorded record numbers of whales
-The polar bear population is doing fantastically well as they adapt to less ice

Adaptation!

______________________

Love ya Sailo, I find your comments to be consistently among the best on here. The state of our Polar Bears though, I’m not convinced.
When I last left the Arctic, our sea ice was disappearing which was putting major pressure on our polar bear populations. No ice makes it difficult to hunt seal. We were seeing increased starvation and cannibalism. Even the polar/grizzly hybrid we discovered off Banks Island in 2006, we surmised was the result of poor sea ice conditions. That is, no ice put the polar bear on land and in contact with the griz during mating season.
Of course, like everything, politics dominate “the science”. As I recall, there was huge political pressure from the Inuvialuit and the Inuk regarding population health. You see, if the bear populations are deemed to be healthy and well managed (very questionable in some areas), they could be exported (as trophies). This means (mostly American) hunters would pay handsomely for a guided bear hunt. You see, when it comes right down to it, it’s always about the money. These same politics are likely influencing the “science” today, unfortunately.

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.22.22 at 8:59 pm

When the Provincial Premiers are mulling Private Health Care…..

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/moncton-health-care-summit-1.6558745

Perhaps it’s time for the Federal Liberals to stop promising National Daycare when our National Healthcare ….is on life support…..

#66 Game Warden on 08.22.22 at 9:19 pm

Faron on 08.22.22 at 8:12 pm

#51 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 7:29 pm

Wow, between that ignorant garbage (would gladly detail why) the prior comment’s FYIGM attitude and your obsession with weight akin to an insecure teenager, it may be a good time to stop embarrassing yourself

Or stick to your areas of expertise… which are… ummm… jussa sec… drawing a blank here, little help anyone? Tax avoidance?

__________

And then there’s this ignoramus. Faron, get a grip. Your desire to be viewed as “expert” is embarrassing. Now go outside and touch grass.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.22.22 at 9:21 pm

Meanwhile back in “The Best Place On Erf”
BC Mayor of 10 towns and cities are begging the Provincial Attorney General to deal with prolific offenders.

Crime is out of control.
“Catch and release” is the order of the day with the police helpless to stop the revolving door.
For example.
200 chronic offenders are responsible for 11,600 crimes so far this year.
Yes.
200 chronic criminals have committed an unbelievable 11,600 crimes.

Our justice system is………Pathetic.

#68 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.22.22 at 9:26 pm

Is there a Fire Bug in Downtown Vancouver?
Seems to be an awful lot of slum buildings going up in flames this year.
Are the Slumlords getting burned out creating more homeless?

#69 Game Warden on 08.22.22 at 9:38 pm

Hey Garth, or gatekeeper, what’s up with my comments not making it through? Gotta keep tight control over narrative? Your Liberal values offended by free thought? What ever it is, it’s weak sauce. Moving on.

You posted at 8:44, 8:59, 9:15 and then at 9:29 accused me of censorship for not approving your comments fast enough. Yeah, find another blog. Please. – Garth

#70 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.22.22 at 9:44 pm

Talking about wussy clubs.
You got the GIC club.
But I think the “Defend Alberta Club” is even more pathetic.
Most of the members are spending most of their days outside of Alberta.
And furthermore, in the good old days they would have been prosecuted for treason.
Thank our woke laws and judges.
And be thankful that BC does not sent your drug addicts and homeless people back.
FURZ, I’m sure would appreciate that.

#71 Doug t on 08.22.22 at 9:48 pm

#55 TurnerNation

Truthisms- keep bringing it buddy

#72 Wrk.dover on 08.22.22 at 9:49 pm

I keep getting second and third chances to buy what went up that was so obvious but I missed it on the first chance.

WMT at 129 the other week.

BOE…well at 115, it looked like a bankruptcy candidate.

The military end of BOE is supposedly worth the current price of the whole too big to fail entity!

Anyone notice KODK nearly doubled…not once but twice since Christmas?

Tracking and or holding dozens of ETFs and stocks is like whack a mole in it’s self. Some always pop up! TRP today. Bought it days ago for the 5.35% divvy. It matches the anchor holds of most CDN div ETF’s proportionately slotted beside each of the big five banks.

My overseas sector is staying cash.

Thanks for the USD balance advice early this month Garth! China suppressing oil demand chokes the loon. Bigly!

#73 Russ on 08.22.22 at 9:51 pm

Faron on 08.22.22 at 4:18 pm

#172 Russ on 08.22.22 at 3:15 pm
Faron on 08.22.22 at 1:15 pm

—————–

Hi Faron,

Thanks for the reply.

I like to glean info from both sides of “the position”. I have extensive experience in process control loops and understand feed-forward and feedback values intimately.

This is part of my skepticism with the current narrative. It seems the (monetizing) parties have captured the end result to achieve a goal, without the real world validation that the model actually works.

On the brew interest, a very good “budget” IPA is from Stanley Park brewing:
https://www.stanleyparkbrewing.com/beer/trail-hopper-ipa/

After a Mt Benson if you wish another IPA then this is a good one. Also for camping or cruising where a second or third IPA is in order this is a good choice.

If you need to accommodate friends and they complain about the IPA flavour being to strong then this is a nice milder pale ale.
https://www.stanleyparkbrewing.com/beer/windstorm/

Enjoy the weather, R

#74 Faron on 08.22.22 at 9:58 pm

#66 Game Warden on 08.22.22 at 9:19 pm

Such an ignoramus that you filled in a blank I’d left implicit to show I’m correct? Cool. Thx.

#75 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.22.22 at 10:00 pm

@#68 Ponzie’s Profitable Predictions.

“And be thankful that BC does not sent your drug addicts and homeless people back.”

++++
Many years ago when I first moved to BC.
If you went in to apply for welfare and you had an out of province I.D.
They offered you a free bus ticket back home.
Good thing I already had a job…..eh ponzie?

#76 GIC Club President on 08.22.22 at 10:10 pm

#24 JOHN PICKETT on 08.22.22 at 5:17 pm
Your comment that “markets have recovered from dips 100% of the time” is inaccurate. Was not the Tokyo Nikkei over 39,000 in 1989? 33 years later a lot of Japanese investors are still waiting for the big rebound. There is absolutely no reason why that cannot happen in North America.

———

#52 Stone on 08.22.22 at 7:42 pm

That’s why you should hold a B&D portfolio. Various equity indexes, various fixed income.

BTW, I am not a B&D bot. Lol

———

That’s exactly what a B&D bot would say.

GIC Club President

#77 Faron on 08.22.22 at 10:11 pm

#73 Russ on 08.22.22 at 9:51 pm
Faron on 08.22.22 at 4:18 pm
#172 Russ on 08.22.22 at 3:15 pm
Faron on 08.22.22 at 1:15 pm

understand feed-forward and feedback values intimately.

You “understand” these for the numerous coupled systems relevant to Earth’s climate? With that level of expertise you should be able to write your own climate model modules and test them. It’s all open source if you want to dig in. No offense, but I strongly doubt that your expertise in feed back and feed forward processes in human created and bounded processes (I presume) gives you much understanding for the specific issues at play in Earth’s climate.

Regarding what is and isn’t monetized and to what degree you may want to check your facts. Between lobbying, PR, “research” funding and political donations, the expenditures fall orders of magnitude on the side of various pro fossil fuel entities. The “industry” of scientists like me being paid in the upper 5 or bottom end 6 figures radically pales in comparison. It’s highly regrettable that you have fallen for these narratives.

Fair winds
Faron

#78 Faron on 08.22.22 at 10:26 pm

#73 Russ on 08.22.22 at 9:51 pm

I apologize for my tone Russ. I hope you can understand the frustration. A relatable analogue would be if you invited me to sail on your boat and I persisted in trying to convince you it’s actually a submarine because that’s what the 0.01% of experts holding the “other view” had told me. It’s crazy making. I hope you can see that. Take your 100ppm error in CO2 levels over the past 800kyr as evidence that you are way out of your depth as I would be claiming submarine expertise.

Beer reccos? I enjoyed an oldy but a goody tonight. Salt Spring Brewing co.’s Heather Pale Ale. If you find yourself in Washington state, a fantastic IPA is Balebreaker’s Topcutter. I first had it when I was in central Washington golfing and a rep handed me an ice cold one from his cart as we waited to tee off. Unfortunately, COVID took away a chunk of my sense of smell and taste, so IPAs don’t have the appeal they once had. But, I also can’t smell the Basset, so it’s not all bad.

#79 Cowrown Cowboy on 08.22.22 at 10:50 pm

#29 Love_The_Cottage on 08.22.22 at 5:33 pm
Just heard a commercial on the fan 590 Toronto saying people should move to Alberta.

If the province is so great, why do they need to advertise?

The few Torotonians I’ve met couldn’t find Manitoba on a map…consider it a PSA…

#80 Mr Fox on 08.22.22 at 10:51 pm

Then May it is… the time to buy a house. If my portfolio in May will be the same it is today, I will be totally ok with it.
Worse if the doomers on youtube and the zero guy are right and we’re going towards the level 3300 of S&P 500.. or worse…

#81 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 10:56 pm

#54 Observer on 08.22.22 at 7:58 pm
#50 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 7:20 pm

Humans will always and forever exploit resources that are available for exploiting. And without a major population reduction, the rate of resource use will continue to increase until scarcity occurs.

Just accept it.

———–

I agree, it is “baked” in. The difference between you and me is that I give a shit.

———–

Three more infinity stones and I’ll solve this sticky little problem for the foreseeable future.

#82 Russ on 08.22.22 at 11:20 pm

Faron on 08.22.22 at 10:26 pm

#73 Russ on 08.22.22 at 9:51 pm

I apologize for my tone Russ. I hope you can understand the frustration. A relatable analogue would be if you invited me to sail on your boat and I persisted in trying to convince you it’s actually a submarine because that’s what the 0.01% of experts holding the “other view” had told me. It’s crazy making. I hope you can see that. Take your 100ppm error in CO2 levels over the past 800kyr as evidence that you are way out of your depth as I would be claiming submarine expertise.

Beer reccos? I enjoyed an oldy but a goody tonight. Salt Spring Brewing co.’s Heather Pale Ale. If you find yourself in Washington state, a fantastic IPA is Balebreaker’s Topcutter. I first had it when I was in central Washington golfing and a rep handed me an ice cold one from his cart as we waited to tee off. Unfortunately, COVID took away a chunk of my sense of smell and taste, so IPAs don’t have the appeal they once had. But, I also can’t smell the Basset, so it’s not all bad.

=======================

Hi Faron,

I have experience in terms of reference you speak and applying assumption values to models but not with building the models.
If I had more free time or was still working :), I would definitively delve into the climate models.
It looks like fun to reek havoc with them. But alas, I have yachts and motorcycles which beg for my attention and are far more enjoyable to spend time with.

If you are up for it I think we should have a beer or two in September.
We really need to discuss the right temperature to distinguish an IPA. I tend to the British side and find the bilge temperature is almost perfect.

Going for a wee cruise soon.

Enjoy the weather.
Cheers, R

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.22.22 at 11:23 pm

An interesting video from last week …..on China’s current drought…… during what is supposed to be their rainy season.

https://youtu.be/PWnWE-wJIjc

The spin off ramifications of this historical failure of the monsoon rains for food production, reduced hydro electricity causing factories to shut down, etc etc etc…… will have world wide economic consequences.

Stock up on potato and computer chips….. to barter for toilet paper

#84 Nonplused on 08.22.22 at 11:39 pm

“Three more infinity stones and I’ll solve this sticky little problem for the foreseeable future.”

Are the eco-warriors volunteering to go first? Because if not, count me out. As they say on the island, “Après moi, le déluge”.

#85 the Jaguar on 08.22.22 at 11:45 pm

Later this week Shawn, Sinan, & Doug will be going over every comment and press release coming out of Jackson Hole, Wyoming like grifters counting cards at a poker game in Reno, Nevada.

The world is watching. Sphincter muscles are locked and loaded in anticipation. What’s the smart money on, one might ask….? Jaguar says it is time to pay the piper. . Payback time for all the loose monetary policies of Yellen and Bernanke. 75 Basis point increase minimum in September. Could even be higher, or how will they ever get that inflation genie back in the bottle? Not with piddling little increases. Reminds me of the old Rolling Stones tune “When The Whip Comes Down’. A great album.

Everything is on the line, especially with the mid terms just around the corner. Powell has had many months to tally up the costs, quotes, specifications, opinions on all matters, and importantly just what the hell is required to engineer the fabled ‘soft landing’. Unfortunately where fairy tales are concerned sometimes the reality is that only the tried and true “Grimm’s Fairy Tales” will be up to the task. And if you don’t want your legacy to be the ‘Powell Pivot”, then it might be time to channel the ghost of Paul Volker.

P.S. McDonalds has just introduced a new Spicy Chicken Sandwich with crinkle cut pickles. No end to their inventiveness and imagination. Maybe they will be serving those up with the news that the Fed means business. There’s a McDonald’s in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Can’t wait to try it.

#86 Grip Reynolds on 08.23.22 at 12:28 am

Those bucolic pandemic wfh bolt holes are proving to be a death trap ie: lost so much value already you can’t sell with huge losses and you’ll likely be still paying a mortgage the day you die. People seem to have forgotten what ‘ mortgage’ means in the first place , literally in Latin “ death grip” .

GIC is an acronym for ‘stupid’. How could it not be otherwise. It’s just been explained that you’ll lose money every day the money sits rotting. Our host talks about needing growth but doesn’t really go out on a limb to explain how that’s achieved, while are the same time deriding the ‘cowboys’ who seek alpha. Dude, it isn’t easy, but neither is it that hard. Seeking safety isn’t the answer, there is none. Saddle up amigos, this will be a generation of winners vs losers. The ‘market’ doesn’t guarantee your time at the rodeo won’t be bloody.

#87 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.23.22 at 12:51 am

80 years to the day, the German Wehrmacht started the assault on Stalingrad.
It was the beginning of the end of Hitler’s dream of a 3rd Reich.
To this day, the Russians have not forgotten their sacrifice.

#88 DJT on 08.23.22 at 1:05 am

Its called The Great Reset.
Plan accordingly.

#89 DJT on 08.23.22 at 1:10 am

#57 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.22.22 at 8:07 pm

Trump just sued the DOJ/FBI today for an illegal search, with an army of lawyers.

#90 Joe Lalonde on 08.23.22 at 5:16 am

In addition to wasting taxpayer money on the ghost bridge to nowhere, these financial government geniuses decided their police station built in 1975 no longer met the needs of their fast-growing police force in a township with no crime, because it is 88% white/Asian. They built themselves a complex three times the size of their old station. Lucky, because they now have a police force of 23 officers, all decked out with souped-up brand-new SUVs.

https://www.howestreet.com/

People are getting pissed at the waste our politicians have anchored us with.

#91 under the radar on 08.23.22 at 5:22 am

35- Investing in yourself is the best thing a person can do.
Having muscle is what gets you off the ground and lessens your chances of broken bones when you fall down the stairs. Having money and ignoring your own fitness is so misguided. Priorities.

#92 Summertime on 08.23.22 at 6:20 am

GT so you are also confirming that rates will continue to be strongly negative for a long time thanks to the charlatans at the central banks.

That will certainly keep driving the stock market as normalization of rates would discount future profits and lower stock valuations.

The billion dollar questions are 2:

1. What is going to happen when (not if) the bond market rolls over. A reminder that the stock market is derivative on money supply/bonds and the bond market is much larger.

2. How in hell would the indebted cash-strapped average Joe who is penniless already handle the rate increases accompanied by the very significant inflation of necessities and somehow manage to drive further consumption in order to ‘support the economy’?

It is either soft landing and runaway inflation or hard landing and control of inflation/sort of/to some degree.

We can’t have both soft landing and control of inflation.

That light at the end of the tunnel will be the coming train for many.

#93 Gravy Train on 08.23.22 at 7:17 am

#50 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 7:20 pm
[…] Just accept it. Climate change emergency is a bit of a religion…

Religion is based on faith in the supernatural—things that are not part of the natural world. Science is based on testing of hypotheses of the natural world to arrive at objective truth about reality. Are you saying that climate science is a religion and not a scientific study of Earth’s climate? Do you dispute or not understand the greenhouse effect? How can you conflate science with religion?

[…] but, since practicing the religion won’t reduce the global use of fossil fuels… what’s the point other than being all Debbie Downer-y?

When scientists and engineers are confronted with problems, they search for sustainable solutions to those problems. They don’t just throw up their hands and say there’s nothing to be done about them. It’s especially troubling to see an engineer like yourself refusing even to identify the problem of anthropogenic global warming, let alone to try to find solutions.

#94 Love_The_Cottage on 08.23.22 at 7:49 am

Employees in the office sits at less than 50% of pre pandemic levels despite reports of return to the office. This isn’t my opinion, it’s backed up by the security data in a large number of U.S. buildings shown here:

https://www.kastle.com/safety-wellness/getting-america-back-to-work/#workplace-barometer

#95 Steven Rowlandson on 08.23.22 at 8:03 am

Inflation plus 5% or better is needed.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.22 at 8:21 am

@#87 Ponzie’s pal Putin’s Panzer Putsch

“To this day, the Russians have not forgotten their sacrifice.”

+++
Judging from the Russian military “tactics” shown thus far.
The Russian Generals seem to think they’re still fighting WWII.
Glory and propaganda only gets you so far….

#97 Dharma Bum on 08.23.22 at 8:30 am

#29 Love The Cottage

If the province is so great, why do they need to advertise?
———————————————————————————————————

Well, my naive fellow blogdog, it’s simply to help get the word out.

Not all good things automatically make themselves known just through word of mouth, social media, or osmosis. Some promotion is often necessary.

iPhones are good. Why does Apple advertise?

See where I’m coming from?

Besides, many Canadians – especially Torontonians (and I am one – by birth) – have their collective heads jammed so far up their arses that they have zero clue as to what goes on outside of their own pathetic neighbourhoods. They have zero idea as to the true diversity (not the politically correct kind jammed down our gullets by the current wokester propagated narrative) that this country has to offer.

Canadians are afraid to leave the comfort and familiarity of their beloved local Tim Hortons double double, or their soulless suburban mall. Yah, that’s right – BRAMPTON is where it’s REALLY at. And Pickering too. Pffffftttt.

The only danger I see in over promoting Alberta is that it could get overrun by the disgustingness of too many eastern Canadians. By eastern, I mean, east of Manitoba.

I’m not worried about Manitobans infiltrating Alberta. They think Winnipeg, Brandon, and Winkler-Morden are the epitome of existence, so they will never leave their province.

I love the cottage too, by the way. Cottage country is the best part of Ontario.

Go ‘Berta!

Mountains. Prairie. Rivers. Wildlife. Canyons. Freedom. Rodeo. Taber corn. Best beef. Troubled Monk Brewery. No provincial tax.

What’s not to like?

Sing another prairie tune.

#98 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.22 at 8:30 am

@#89 DJT
“Trump just sued the DOJ/FBI today for an illegal search, with an army of lawyers.”

++++
An age old Trump tactic.
Run to his lawyers and file a lawsuit to intimidate and stall.
Not this time.
That being said.
After seeing what has happened to Trumps previous legal advice ( indicted and jailed)……
I’m amazed anyone would want to work with the Greatest Grifter of All Time.
But.
We are talking about lawyers.

#99 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.22 at 8:47 am

@#89 Donald J. Trump

Trumps army of lawyers will be busy.
The Dept of Justice raid on his house for Top Secret documents.
( Who WAS the Rat that tipped the FBI off about the location?).
The paranoia in the Trump organization must be through the roof.
Rats scurrying everywhere when the ship…is….sinking.

And let us not forget the Case slowly winding it’s way through the New York State Court system….

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiDj-O0_tz5AhVHGzQIHT2oAHAQFnoECAoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fapnews.com%2Farticle%2Fallen-weisselberg-trump-cfo-plea-deal-e36dbd47ee3b0323e1fa102117718011&usg=AOvVaw3Ptqu4BE0TrHQMobL_h1as

Trumps former Chief Financial Officer for over two decades….agrees to testify this Fall against the Trump business organization on possible fraudulent tax evasion.
Decades of fraud allegations and billions in fines?

Death and Taxes DJT.
Death annnnnnd Taxes.

Trumps is gonna need an “army of lawyers”.

#100 Penny Henny on 08.23.22 at 9:09 am

#66 Game Warden on 08.22.22 at 9:19 pm

And then there’s this ignoramus. Faron, get a grip. Your desire to be viewed as “expert” is embarrassing. Now go outside and touch grass.

///////////////

Touch grass? I have no idea what it means but I like the sound of it.

#101 Eden Fortright on 08.23.22 at 9:45 am

Todays Side Splitter.

EU gas prices up 400% and Trudeau announces “there’s no business case for Canada to export gas”. He says “ It’s too far for Alberta and Saskatchewan to get to market”.

Bwahahahahahaha !!!!

Doesn’t this remind you of the Trudeau gaffe where he stands in from of a blackboard covered in astrophysical equations? His genius is ‘fantastical’ . OMG.

Dear Mr Trudeau, there are Alberta pipelines flowing in Mexico. Our guys know how to get Alberta energy to market. They build as per every business case, that’s what they do. We built a continental railroad Sir. Give Canada a chance. You might not have an oil man in your cabinet but for Dawgs sake, don’t kill off Alberta jobs at a time when the world needs Canada more than ever.

#102 KLNR on 08.23.22 at 9:46 am

@#29 Love The Cottage

If the province is so great, why do they need to advertise?
———————————————————————————————————

Well, my naive fellow blogdog, it’s simply to help get the word out.

Not all good things automatically make themselves known just through word of mouth, social media, or osmosis. Some promotion is often necessary.

iPhones are good. Why does Apple advertise?

See where I’m coming from?

Besides, many Canadians – especially Torontonians (and I am one – by birth) – have their collective heads jammed so far up their arses that they have zero clue as to what goes on outside of their own pathetic neighbourhoods. They have zero idea as to the true diversity (not the politically correct kind jammed down our gullets by the current wokester propagated narrative) that this country has to offer.

Canadians are afraid to leave the comfort and familiarity of their beloved local Tim Hortons double double, or their soulless suburban mall. Yah, that’s right – BRAMPTON is where it’s REALLY at. And Pickering too. Pffffftttt.

The only danger I see in over promoting Alberta is that it could get overrun by the disgustingness of too many eastern Canadians. By eastern, I mean, east of Manitoba.

I’m not worried about Manitobans infiltrating Alberta. They think Winnipeg, Brandon, and Winkler-Morden are the epitome of existence, so they will never leave their province.

I love the cottage too, by the way. Cottage country is the best part of Ontario.

Go ‘Berta!

Mountains. Prairie. Rivers. Wildlife. Canyons. Freedom. Rodeo. Taber corn. Best beef. Troubled Monk Brewery. No provincial tax.

What’s not to like?

Sing another prairie tune.

lmao

‘love the cottage’ you really triggered a bunch of folks with that question.

#103 Observer on 08.23.22 at 10:31 am

#93 Gravy Train on 08.23.22 at 7:17 am
#50 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 7:20 pm
[…] Just accept it. Climate change emergency is a bit of a religion…

Religion is based on faith in the supernatural—things that are not part of the natural world. Science is based on testing of hypotheses of the natural world to arrive at objective truth about reality. Are you saying that climate science is a religion and not a scientific study of Earth’s climate? Do you dispute or not understand the greenhouse effect? How can you conflate science with religion?

[…] but, since practicing the religion won’t reduce the global use of fossil fuels… what’s the point other than being all Debbie Downer-y?

When scientists and engineers are confronted with problems, they search for sustainable solutions to those problems. They don’t just throw up their hands and say there’s nothing to be done about them. It’s especially troubling to see an engineer like yourself refusing even to identify the problem of anthropogenic global warming, let alone to try to find solutions.

^^^^^^^^^^
Yeah it is weird, and more so considering his wife is some kind of environmental scientist working for the BC government (presuming I recall one of SA’s past comments correctly).

Methinks he is empathy deficient and enjoys stirring the pot – a troll of sorts.

#104 Shawn on 08.23.22 at 10:32 am

Deflation Watch

Watermelons at Atlantic Superstore were just $2.79 yesterday. This was North Sydney Cape Breton and it said “this store only”. Medium sized watermelons. I don’t recall them ever being that cheap though I am sure they were years ago.

If people are going to gripe about inflation they have to acknowledge when prices drop on some items.

Shop around people.

#105 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.23.22 at 11:05 am

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.22 at 8:21 am
@#87 Ponzie’s pal Putin’s Panzer Putsch

“To this day, the Russians have not forgotten their sacrifice.”

+++
Judging from the Russian military “tactics” shown thus far.
The Russian Generals seem to think they’re still fighting WWII.
Glory and propaganda only gets you so far….
————————
Estimates of Russian casualties in WWII are as high as 30 million.
The word NAZI actually has a meaning for them.
Not just a swear word thrown around carelessly by people like you.

#106 Sail Away on 08.23.22 at 11:25 am

#93 Gravy Train on 08.23.22 at 7:17 am
#50 Sail Away on 08.22.22 at 7:20 pm

Just accept it. Climate change emergency is a bit of a religion…

———

How can you conflate science with religion?

———

By no means so I conflate science with religion. Science is sober and, if anything, understated.
Religion loves apocalyptic statements triggering high emotion.

Things like this from a certain self-claimed blogdog climate scientist 2 days ago:

“…when, in a couple more decades, mammals can no longer survive the extremely humid heatwaves that will occur over large swaths of the southeastern US.”

See that? ‘When’, ‘no longer survive’, and ‘will occur’. Statements of certitude.. A couple of decades. That’s the 2040’s. And when mammals can no longer survive, that’s basically the apocalypse for all mammals in large swaths of the southeastern US.

Oh my. Who’d’ve thunk it was so imminent?

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.22 at 11:45 am

@#105 Ponzies pedantic patter
“The word NAZI actually has a meaning for them.
Not just a swear word thrown around carelessly by people like you.”

+++
Hitting the schnapps a tad early aren’t we Ponzie?
Please search through the past several years of my postings and provide evidence of my referring to Russians as Nazi’s.
Since either I’ve forgotten or you are (once again ) wrong.

P.S.
Since you raised the subject.
I just finished reading “Ordinary Men” by Christopher Browning.
A eye opening book on how normal, law abiding, boring clerks, barbers, teachers, laborer’s, bureaucrats, etc. became willing Death Squad members in the 1940’s.
Quite horrifying to think that people from everyday life slid so easily down into madness and murder.

#108 Dr V on 08.23.22 at 12:07 pm

A little off topic, but an interesting read

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/despite-the-hype-b-c-still-has-just-two-wooden-highrises

#109 Dr V on 08.23.22 at 12:10 pm

Back on topic, after starting in the green this morning, markets are sliding towards the red again. Interesting times.

Another warm one today, will try to get a ride in before it gets too hot.

#110 Dr V on 08.23.22 at 12:13 pm

Go Scotiabank

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/scotiabank-reports-2-59b-q3-110619762.html

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.23.22 at 12:32 pm

#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.22 at 11:45 am
@#105 Ponzies pedantic patter
“The word NAZI actually has a meaning for them.
Not just a swear word thrown around carelessly by people like you.”

+++
Hitting the schnapps a tad early aren’t we Ponzie?
Please search through the past several years of my postings and provide evidence of my referring to Russians as Nazi’s.
Since either I’ve forgotten or you are (once again ) wrong.

P.S.
Since you raised the subject.
I just finished reading “Ordinary Men” by Christopher Browning.
A eye opening book on how normal, law abiding, boring clerks, barbers, teachers, laborer’s, bureaucrats, etc. became willing Death Squad members in the 1940’s.
Quite horrifying to think that people from everyday life slid so easily down into madness and murder.
————————————-
I recall you like to call people you don’t agree with Nazis, like enviroNazis.
But you’re right with ordinary people turning into monsters during wars.
I always say:
Put a person into a uniform and give them authority, and see who they really are.
Or, if you wanna know what people are made off, start a war.
War what is it good for?
Only good for arms dealers.

#112 Penny Henny on 08.23.22 at 12:33 pm

Hey Stone, you’ve been doing a lot of tweaking to your B&D lately. Some might say your unbalanced.

#113 Faron on 08.23.22 at 12:38 pm

#106 Sail Away on 08.23.22 at 11:25 am

In 2021 about 1000 mammals capable of sheltering themselves died of heat stress here in BC, WA and OR. Conditions were about 50 percent humidity and 40 to 50C. Bring that to 100% humidity (evaporation no longer occurs) and how will a sweat or breath cooling mammal evolved for much milder conditions regulate its temp? Extreme projections (which is the track we are on) brings that kind of event to SE US within decades.

Just because you can’t imagine it, just as you couldn’t imagine the deaths of millions due to COVID even as real scientists foresaw what was coming, doesn’t mean it won’t happen. It means you are stuck in a bubble of hubris worrying about your weight.

#114 epic bear on 08.23.22 at 1:00 pm

U.S. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 45.0. (>50 indicates growth, <50 indicates contraction)

"The rate of contraction also outpaced anything recorded outside of the initial pandemic outbreak since the series began nearly 13-years ago."

ya. we're getting a soft landing all right… lol

there's a very very hard landing coming. prepare for it.

#115 Faron on 08.23.22 at 1:01 pm

#106 Sail Away on 08.23.22 at 11:25 am

Regarding use of certain terms, do you think I’m going to waste my energy parsing the IPCCs well-defined terminology for dolts like you? No. You have already been blindingly wrong about the impacts of one major global issue. It’s virtually certain (there’s your clearly defined term) that you are blowing smoke with regard to understanding the impacts of climate change. Evidence? You’ve already stated that it won’t affect you. There’s 100% likelihood that it already has (food prices, work disruptions, transportation snarled etc).

As mentioned by Observer, I certainly hope your wife doesn’t hold your views. If she does she is likely acting with extreme negligence given the extremely well studied, documented and projected impacts climate change has already had and will have on the forest ecosystems of BC, her purview. A person who isn’t following best practice science has no business leading FERN.

And, yes, I’m pissed. Why? When someone walks into your house and craps their pants on the couch, leaves a mess and doesn’t own it, unless they are a toddler, it’s infuriating. You will characterize my anger as being “triggered” or “owning the libs” or “going woke and going broke” or any other term from the supplicant phraseology cooked up by fox news, but the lack of foresight and abundance of blind adherence to talking points reflects poorly on you. Wilful idiocy, plain and simple.

#116 pBrasseur on 08.23.22 at 1:37 pm

@#103 Are you saying that climate science is a religion and not a scientific study of Earth’s climate?

Just because it is a scientific study doesn’t mean science actually knows how to predict the climate, a complex chaotic systems which makes predictions extremely difficult if not impossible.

A lot of things are reported in the medias as sure things, but if you look more closely a lot of the science behind those affirmations is at best theoretical and very shaky, so is the whole climate science really.

Even the data itself can be questioned when so many datasets have been “adjusted” , a.k. tampered with to accommodate the narrative, there is not such thing as an earth temperature, this is a composite data resulting from innumerable interventions often driven by human decisions made inside huge bureaucracies themselves dependent on the narrative.

Not saying climate change is not real or a hoax, but I’m pretty sure it is in some form of a bubble right. You know irrationality that started from a bit of truth.

If it was a real “emergency” humanity could fix this in a few years by building a bunch of new nuclear plants, but I gather the current situation is not serious enough and profits too many people to expect “real” action.

#117 Sail Away on 08.23.22 at 2:09 pm

#115 Faron on 08.23.22 at 1:01 pm

And, yes, I’m pissed.

——-

You’re always pissed.

I have not responded to you for three months straight, yet you continue to reference, insult, ridicule me multiple times daily. #problemchild

#118 Faron on 08.23.22 at 2:24 pm

#111 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.23.22 at 12:32 pm
#107 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.22 at 11:45 am
@#105 Ponzius

Ponz, don’t forget the old chestnut “feminazis” used by a multitude of the dinosaurs around here including Herr Fartz.

#119 pBrasseur on 08.23.22 at 2:29 pm

Climate change: Real or not take the activism and self interest out go it, the solution is attainable and even easy.

https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/3-reasons-why-nuclear-clean-and-sustainable

The fact that this can’t even be discussed leads me to believe it is actually not that serious (there is no climate emergency) or it is a bubble, which like all bubbles profits many interests, either political, ideological, bureaucratic, academic and economic.

#120 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.22 at 2:33 pm

Apparently the rumor’s of Donald J Trump’s dyslexic illiteracy were unfounded.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/agency-identified-700-plus-pages-classified-records-trumps-home-2022-08-23/

……OR he was hoped there were some pictures in the 700 pages of classified documents.

#121 Observer on 08.23.22 at 2:50 pm

#117 Sail Away on 08.23.22 at 2:09 pm
#115 Faron on 08.23.22 at 1:01 pm

And, yes, I’m pissed.

——-

You’re always pissed.

I have not responded to you for three months straight, yet you continue to reference, insult, ridicule me multiple times daily. #problemchild

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Trolls have that effect on people with empathy.

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.23.22 at 3:00 pm

118 Faron.
“Ponz, don’t forget the old chestnut “feminazis” used by a multitude of the dinosaurs around here including Herr Fartz.”

+++
I dont recall saying that.
Please find and post.