What recession?

Oil tumbles into the $80 range (it used to be $120). Gold plops another twenty bucks, proving inflation has cuckolded it. The commies in China just shocked markets with an interest rate… cut. Real estate values in Canada, the US and beyond are retreating fast (new CREA numbers reveal an annualized drop of 20% last month). And most people are morose. Worse, the great Con hope is a pro-Tamara, anti-vaxer who wants to fire the central banker because rates aren’t rising fast enough.

Seriously. And I didn’t even mention tattoos.

On the surface – where most people go – things are confused and difficult. For the over-indebted and single-asset crowd, life is not going in the right direction. And have you noticed the savings rate? It soared to over 20% during Covid (do you feel a little nostalgic?) and has now crashed. Canadians, on average, saved less than two grand in first few months of the year. That’s down 44%. Yikes.

So what’s up with the financial markets? What are they telling us?

As you may have noticed, the stock market’s had its best little tizzy since late last year. More than half the interest-rate-induced dump of a few months ago has been reversed. Equities leapt ahead by double digits in July (and bonds surged as well), so anyone sitting on cash waiting for the Apocalypse was disappointed.

But wait, the steerage section cries, all angst-addled and bloviated, isn’t this a recession?

Maybe not. As this blog has been telling you for a few weeks, recessions don’t happen when airports are jammed with vacationers, store shelves are empty because demand is outstripping supply, corporate profits are peachy, when unemployment is at a 50-year low and there are more job openings than people willing to work. None of that is consistent with the usual recession stuff – mass layoffs, business failures and household debt crises.

So what if they called a recession and nobody came?

Yes, the US has had two back-to-back quarters of slightly negative growth. And, yup, for the last seven decades that has usually resulted in a recession – some slight, some sick. But, whoa, there are even more profound positive signals hitting investors. For example, no economy in recession ever created over 500,000 new jobs in a month, as the States just did. As mentioned, the jobless rate in both Canada and the US is at the lowest point (probably) in your lifetime. The latest inflation number was down, not up. Oil prices have tumbled 27% in recent weeks, taking gas and other commodities with it. The Q2 earnings season was uneven but positive with seven in ten companies beating estimates.

All this while the CBs deep-sixed their stimulative bond-buying and aggressively hiked rates. It came despite a serious icing-up of the residential real estate market. It happened despite the worst war in Europe since Hitler was terrorizing the world. And it occurred in the aftermath of a global pandemic that killed millions, shuttered factories and completely screwed-up the global system of producing and shipping stuff.

Regardless, financial markets have given investors half their losses back, and continue to be vibrant. So just imagine what happens when, for instance, inflation tumbles a couple of percentage points. Or there’s a ceasefire in Ukraine. Or the Fed pauses its rate hikes. Some or all of that is likely to happen in the next six, nine or twelve months. Missing those days of recovery would be painful.

In fact, maybe this is no recession at all. Perhaps the GDP numbers will be revised upwards in the coming months (often happens). Maybe that inverted yield curve will flatten as central bankers hold rates and debt-holders demand less of an inflation premium. Maybe a recession will end up being caused by high rates – but it comes next year. Or in 2024. Or maybe later.

You don’t know. I don’t know. Even the CB gods don’t know.

The best strategy then is probably not to idle in cash, investing the money later when it buys less. It certainly doesn’t make sense to sell good stuff now at a lower value than you paid, turning a paper loss into a real one. And it’s wise to deploy money you’ve been sitting on when quality stuff is available at a discounted price.

There will be volatility, of course. Moaning and gnashing will be widespread. Markets could turn and retest the lows they plumbed in June. But the beauty of investing when you have money, and staying invested, is that such gyrations are irrelevant. The world is not ending. Growth is the norm. The future is not scary.

The guy who cut my hair last week says his wife looks at her online investment statement once every three or six months.

How about you, I asked?

“I trade two or three times a week.”

And who’s doing better?

It was suddenly time to rinse.

About the picture: “I have been reading your blog for over a year now,” writes Jenna, “and have learned a lot from you! This is my little boy Bandit. He is a rescue I’ve had for 12 years. This picture just shows his true personality! He is such a joy and wonderful member of my family!”

118 comments ↓

#1 Tom on 08.15.22 at 2:40 pm

You’re not factoring in the people who bought homes in the last year who will be ruined financially. Also, many people have more than one property, so their investments will decline.

Too bad for them. Inconsequential for the economy. – Garth

#2 Linda on 08.15.22 at 2:42 pm

It will be very interesting to hear what the official Canadian inflation number for July is later this week. One must presume the recent drops in oil prices won’t be reflected in the July number but rather in the August number. However, seems to me that the government invented Frankenumbering well before the housing industry took it up. Based on how costs have escalated for pretty much everything – apparently tomatoes are escalating in price due to supply chain issues exacerbated by climate (drought) so all tomato based products like paste, sauce, ketchup etc. are outpacing other grocery items in price escalation – have very little faith that our official inflation number is presenting a true picture of how much more things cost these days. Just saying.

Bandit is a cutie pie:) Looks more like a young kitten than a middle aged fur ball.

#3 Søren Angst on 08.15.22 at 2:56 pm

On the surface – where most people go – things are confused and difficult.
– Garth

My Liege, as one of the Plebeii *:

OUCH

* Genuflecting, kissing one of your many ring fingers and bathing in your resplendent 24/7, 365 days/year, aura.

Blissed out.

—————

Good State of the Markets Garth. It was at that.

Though I think yeah _ _ _ will bounce back if the Chinese stimulus works well. Wait and see on that one. Fingers crossed here for Contango continuing.

#4 Steven on 08.15.22 at 2:57 pm

Is growth going forward going to be at the same clip with CB’s Goosing rates, QT, less oil production= higher oil prices,etc, etc.

Isn’t it a common disclosure that starts something like this ” past performance is not indicative of future results….”

As always, keep your eyes on the Fed. They are the gods that will determine future growth or non growth until they don’t matter anymore.

#5 Abi on 08.15.22 at 3:00 pm

great post but a small correction. report gold in canadian dollars please. gold is down only $0.65 (65 cents) to 2296.39.

gold is down 22.04 in USD to 1778.77, you are right.

it is not good form to quote canadian house prices in USD, so why should gold be expressed that way too?

Bullion is universally priced in US$. – Garth

#6 TurnerNation on 08.15.22 at 3:03 pm

H8 mail to this blog is increased? Likely with all the realtors now idling. ;-)

—– Another day in the Former First World Countries. Our rulers are dialing us back to the stone ages. PS for what do you think those networked Smart Thermostats are in use.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/spain-air-conditioning-crackdown-set-to-take-effect
“Spain Air Conditioning Crackdown Set to Take Effect. Starting Aug. 9, commercial buildings face AC temperature caps ”


>>– Is Nova Scotia now a failed State? From twitter. In March 2020 every system designed to help us was turned against us; Believe it.

@jamescdwyer – Someone I know had a stroke and was in emergency for 3 days before he was seen, he passed away last night. What ever you do don’t get sick or find alternatives for family, Nova Scotia isn’t safe anymore

@QueenBlackWid0wReplying to @jamescdwyer -This is the 4th time hearing this sadly last week my friends dad died of a heart attack in the waiting area in front of his wife when she cried out for no one came to help

@liz_hallett – After two hours of waiting for an ambulance I call back.
“There is no ETA ma’am” says the operator. We are told we just have to wait and it could be hours. …
I call to speak to 911 for the third time, ask what ERs are open, and I am told the average wait time to see someone is 12-16 hours.


—– GTA/Toronto: Call a cab!!!

https://old.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/won5w8/the_state_of_our_healthcare_ive_been_waiting_40/
“They found her in the hallway floor incapacitated, but alive. They radio for ambulance.
40 minutes later and the ambulance arrives. This is the state of healthcare in Doug Ford’s ontario, folks.”

#7 Søren Angst on 08.15.22 at 3:11 pm

Drought no more in Italia. The rains have come.

https://www.meteogiornale.it/2022/08/meteo-notizia/stagionali/siccita-avvio-verso-la-sua-fine-con-la-pioggia/

WINE LOVERS

BTW, early bottle of this years Merlot from my cousin…wow! Poured it out and it looked like a 7 yr old fine Tuscan wine. Tasted incredible. A little tannic but hey, he just bottled it.

Wine lovers out there, look in the future for Merlot 2022 from the Province of Pordenone. Merlot, like Californian Zinfandel (used to make Zinfandel wine in Edmonton with my Dad for 15 years – best N. American parallel I have experience with), matures in about 3 years.

Buy it next year and you will thank me.

And no BC, this is real Merlot, you do not have Italian micro-soil to go along with your so-called micro-climate. I have seen your vineyards and they are a sorry sight to say the least.

Your ink wine is still ink to me and drinks just like it. Sorry, but that’s the truth. It’s overhyped by the don’t know dung from clay crowd that have the taste buds of a gnat. The rest follow along wishing to gain favour and not knowing any better.

#8 Gr on 08.15.22 at 3:13 pm

Some might be interests.
And yes doing stuff and being more energy efficient is always a plus for everything. But weather the whole block chain thing is really a good idea is above my pay grade for a number of reasons… Which include energy usage and the requirement that the electric powers is always on, it needs to come from somewhere after all, and it isn’t always on 100% of the time.

“The Ethereum Foundation has even proposed the block where proof-of-work will end, and proof-of-stake begin: 58750000000000000000000. This block is expected to be mined sometime on 15 or 16 September.”

I guess we will see if it even happens in Sept.??
link to an article from 13 Aug, 2022

Climate-Friendly Ethereum Is One Merge Away Successful tests set the stage for the cryptocurrency’s switchover in September
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-merge-heralds-cryptos-climate-friendly-future

#9 T-Rev on 08.15.22 at 3:14 pm

Noticing some seriously slowing sales in the Alberta market. But we’re off 5-8% from peak depending on which half of the the province you’re in.

Quebec seems to be doing just fine according to the same report I’m reading. Montreal off only a couple percent, Quebec City flat. Seems the pain is much more concentrated in Ontario and BC. Other than a slight correction, the rest of confederation is largely in affected thus far. Next rate hike will be very telling on whether we join the Ontario/BC folks.

#10 Ash Ketchum on 08.15.22 at 3:18 pm

There is the Kijiji index, where in good times Pokémon cards get sold fast , and in tough times Pokémon cards take weeks to sell.

#11 TurnerNation on 08.15.22 at 3:20 pm

It’s a She-cession alright. ‘You’ve come a long way, Baby’?

https://www.myprincegeorgenow.com/164551/news/unvaccinated-mothers-facing-up-to-50000-in-maternity-leave-repayment-to-bc-government/
“Unvaccinated mothers facing up to $50,000 in maternity leave repayment to BC Government”


— Just another day in the Former First World Countries. 2 years “Rules” and “Manadates” were to make us so healthy? (I flip what our rulers tell us 180 degrees…to make sense)

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-62504401
“Last month saw the highest number of ambulance callouts for life-threatening conditions since records began, NHS England officials say.
Nearly 30,000 patients waited more than 12 hours to be admitted to hospital.”

—– Oof, at best a 2nd World country, if not 3rd world one. Our ruling junta.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/12/tyranny-justin-trudeau-has-finally-exposed-two-brits-no-less/
“The tyranny of Justin Trudeau has finally been exposed – and by two Brits, no less. A lawsuit has shown Canada’s travel vaccine mandate had little to do with science and everything to do with politics”


— Orderly wind down of travel. We were trained on this 2020-21, “Essential Travel” right?

.Air New Zealand is cancelling and rescheduling about 1.5 per cent of its flights during the next six months in what it says is a proactive move to avoid cancelling services closer to the time that passengers have booked to travel (www.nzherald.co.nz)

.Passport delays spur some Canadians to game the system with fake travel plans (cbc.ca)

#12 Paddy on 08.15.22 at 3:21 pm

“Worse, the great Con hope is a pro-Tamara, anti-vaxer who wants to fire the central banker because rates aren’t rising fast enough”

Anyone other than T2 will be an improvement, and sooner than later please.

#13 Covid Barber on 08.15.22 at 3:22 pm

“The guy who cut my hair last week says his wife looks at her online investment statement once every three or six months.”

WHAT!!??

You’re getting someone else to cut your hair!?

Ok, ok, I’ll lower my price to $350, a special for this month.

Better call soon though…..

#14 Penny Henny on 08.15.22 at 3:23 pm

#130 Sail Away on 08.15.22 at 1:06 pm
#48 Victor Llearna on 08.14.22 at 7:19 pm

Was running some numbers on the forced CPP contributions that the govt steals every year, From my paycheck its 3200/year and employer also forced to contribute the same. so lets say 6400/year for 40 years $256,000. Just to get the base amount back need to live 20 frigging years. and if you were to invest that $6400 per year on your own at 7% per year you would have around 1.2 million saved. since it only pays out $14000 per year you need to live 80 more years to get $1.2 million back!!!.

———

#85 Island Girl’s Dad on 08.14.22 at 10:08 pm
#47 Victor Llearna

Your numbers are totally wrong. No one has ever contributed $3200 per year for 40 years.

———

Victor’s numbers are completely legit

…………….

Hey Sailo,
the first part of Victor’s number are legit because the 6400/yr are inflation adjusted, so saying that it would take 20+ years of CPP to get your dough back is fundamentally correct.
The second part is incorrect though because we already inflation adjusted and factored in the growth of the money to account for present day values.
Can’t have your cake and eat it too.

I’m sure Shawn will explain it better than me, my fingers are already tired of typing.

#15 DJT on 08.15.22 at 3:30 pm

It doesn’t really matter what GDP, inflation or interest rates are if banks refuse to write mortgages, like in the 1980’s.

And we have seen that banks will act politically when they recently froze bank accounts….

#16 chopstix on 08.15.22 at 3:34 pm

RE: ”The guy who cut my hair last week says his wife looks at her online investment statement once every three or six months.

How about you, I asked?

“I trade two or three times a week.”

And who’s doing better?

It was suddenly time to rinse.”

So very true: one saying i came across and wanted to share, to relate to the above:
”handling your stock acct too often is like handling a bar of soap: it just gets smaller over time.”
I used to visit it each week or each few days…nonsense…if they’re good holding, solid companies, they’ll do well and pick back up over time.
…feel so much more relieved that i’m not visiting my acct as frequently as i used to.
(but we must admit, too, that the market for the first 7 months of 2022 was like a flipping up/down kangaroo…what curve balls it threw!)

#17 Søren Angst on 08.15.22 at 3:36 pm

PS on the wine:

That lovely French Bordeaux * you buy in Canada, a blended grape wine where about 2/3 of it is Merlot, probably contains a lot of Italian Merlot grapes. A lot.

Last year the French imported:

330 and 360,000 tonnes of grapes

from Italia.

My relatives have been sending 1,000’s of litres of Merlot and also grapes to France for decades.

Bet you didn’t know that all you self-proclaimed wine conoscenti?

——————-

Keep buying French Bordeaux.

Italia thanks you.

* Bordeaux wine region is 10,600 hectares. Too small to produce all the wine it exports. The City of Toronto is 100,000 hectares. So you know, unless they have Star Trek replicators in Bordeaux they need imported grapes to meet World demand.

Italia and my Region of Pordenone only too happy to oblige them.

#18 Victor Llearna on 08.15.22 at 4:00 pm

Recession or not the CPP gods will still be withdrawing their 6 figure salaries from the fund while it pays out peanuts to the poor peons forced to pay into it every year of their working life. Not to mention the employee portion of the contributions.
Hopefully Petey Polliver scraps CPP and just disburses the entire fund in cash proportionally to the contributors.

#19 RyYYZ on 08.15.22 at 4:02 pm

I look at my investment accounts fairly regularly.

But I don’t actually do anything, it’s just for entertainment. It’s like following my favorite sports team, except there are real consequences.

I’m pretty sure sitting pat has served me better than a more active role on my part would have. Sure, I’ve missed some opportunities, but I’m also sure I would have made some major mistakes.

Twice a year I rebalance, once a year when I contribute the max to my TFSA and apportion it to the portfolio.

Bandit is a cutie.

#20 The Original Jake on 08.15.22 at 4:02 pm

What recession? Well, officially the US is now in a housing recession. And… we know that Canada always follows the US.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/15/us-is-in-housing-recession-homebuilders-say.html

#21 KuatoLives on 08.15.22 at 4:05 pm

The 2022 market decrease was done on comparatively light volume against previous declines so i wouldn’t be too sanguine. We havnt seen what a serious run to the exits looks like in 14 years. 2022 doesn’t really count imo.

Not only is the savings rate falling but people are relying more and more on credit to accommodate for inflationary pressures. Q3/Q4 earnings stand a good chance of being bad, current earnings perhaps unsustainable. This says nothing of the collapsing property bubble in China, the effects of which are still unknown. Not that I disagree with the ethos of this blog but I’m staying 100% cash for now. If the world hasn’t ended by November I’ll action my fancy on paper balanced portfolio.

#22 Jd on 08.15.22 at 4:10 pm

Since when is a position against mandating a novel vaccine technology “antivax”. That’s a strawman, you’re better than that. Europe has been progressively limiting who can get mRNA vax…Out of curiosity, what organization would have to publicly say these vaccines were at best, short lived in their benefit, and did not stop transmission for you to believe it, since you clearly won’t believe your eyes on this. I respect your work and thank you for it. This is not “settled science”

#23 Franco on 08.15.22 at 4:22 pm

I’m still waiting for the roaring twenties.

It’s only mid-2022. Patience, pumpkin. – Garth

#24 Sail Away on 08.15.22 at 4:23 pm

#14 Penny Henny on 08.15.22 at 3:23 pm

Hey Sailo,
the first part of Victor’s number are legit because the 6400/yr are inflation adjusted, so saying that it would take 20+ years of CPP to get your dough back is fundamentally correct.

The second part is incorrect though because we already inflation adjusted and factored in the growth of the money to account for present day values.
Can’t have your cake and eat it too.

——–

Agreed. The fund itself projects an 8% CAGR, so yes, the inflationary component is already baked in.

It makes sense, though, to look at $6,400/yr for 40 years and question whether that same buying power will be returned.

That cake saying is terrible, by the way. Why have a cake that you can’t eat? Ludicrous.

#25 Sail Away on 08.15.22 at 4:32 pm

I look at my portfolios every morning, over coffee and the Wall Street Journal.

There are few things I enjoy more than grabbing a big pile of an existing holding that just divebombed 10% overnight for non-fundamental reasons. Think Costco, Kroger, Berkshire, any of the railroads (blockades, anyone?), banks, etc. The good stuff.

If it’s already in the portfolio, it’s there for a good reason, so leveraging those hiccups throws gas on the fire.

#26 Sam on 08.15.22 at 4:34 pm

Ah yes. Trade your precious time when young for money and invest any money left after cost of living eats it away in diversified fund for 7% average return (less once taxes get at it and inflation and fees) and hope you can enjoy the fruit of your labor when you’re older and have very little time left (if healthy and alive still). Ah yes life in the slow lane for the average person. Rich folk who got rich not this way telling us to do it this way.

#27 Pro-vax, yes minister on 08.15.22 at 4:35 pm

Since when is a position against mandating a novel vaccine technology “antivax”. That’s a strawman, you’re better than that. Europe has been progressively limiting who can get mRNA vax…Out of curiosity, what organization would have to publicly say these vaccines were at best, short lived in their benefit, and did not stop transmission for you to believe it, since you clearly won’t believe your eyes on this. I respect your work and thank you for it. This is not “settled science”

Even regular law abiding people are starting to see that u are mentally defective, and u are missing some screws…lool

When that happens, u know it’s bad, you are in the Trudeau bonkers league

#28 Mattl on 08.15.22 at 4:39 pm

Inflation only decreased because of the drop in oil prices. The basket of non oil related goods increased. Inflation is still at 8%, 6% north of target, and 3x the bank rate. Hardly a positive story.

One scenario is rates need to add 200-300bps before inflation is tamed. I think Mr Market is misreading what is happening, or, he knows the centrals are not actually commited to 2% inflation.

Listen I’m happy the market is rallying, a few more big weeks and I’m net positive for the year. But hard to believe this is anything other then a headfake.

Markets have recovered 100% of the time. – Garth

#29 The Saver on 08.15.22 at 4:41 pm

That savings rate is abysmal…. wife and I have been saving $10k a month for the past two years and we still feel poor.

how did all those homes get bought these past two years?!?!

#30 Sam on 08.15.22 at 4:47 pm

#22 JD
Unfortunately if you question (even constructively) the ( booster shots you’re considered anti-vax. I was on a train where we had to wear masks (I would have anyhow) but we can take them off to eat lunch and snacks. I suppose the virus doesn’t circulate during noon hour. Anyhow I’m liberal but now leaning conservative although it’s simply lesser of the evil IMO. Everything has become too wonky. It’s not enough to accept LGBTA demographic but you need to engage in a gay relationship to truly show you care these days even if you’re straight. So much division.

#31 Bob in Hamilton on 08.15.22 at 4:48 pm

What’s the scoop on the Elgin property? Still negotiating?

Yes. – Garth

#32 Squire on 08.15.22 at 4:49 pm

https://twitter.com/i/status/1558906540458795008

to quote one of the comments….”Madness but JT admires them”

#33 NOSTRADAMUS on 08.15.22 at 4:53 pm

A SLEASY TACTIC !
I am still seeing realtor ads “SOLD” for $100,000. over asking price. Hmmm, I guess if you list the property at a teaser price you will get the odd buyer who has been on a retreat to a far away monastery. With no outside contact and living in the past, today’s asking price will look like a bargain. Consequently, the ad “SOLD” for $100,000. over asking. Again chum the water, a bait and switch tactic that the real estate cartel allows their predatory agents to employ as a sleazy sales strategy. Realtors, complain that they get no love. I would sympathize more if the realtors stopped using these criminal tactics in trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the gullible public. What is so shocking is that there is no humility. Again, when being a hypocrite, remember, eyes down, don’t look up. Steady lads, hold the line.

#34 Shawn on 08.15.22 at 4:58 pm

Recession?

Well with Garth convincing everyone to take CPP at 60 and enjoy spending it while relatively young, not to mention alive, that should stimulate the economy some and stave off the recession.

#35 Shawn on 08.15.22 at 5:07 pm

Is CPP a good plan with decent returns?

Same as house buy versus rent it seems people calculate and manipulate the data to give whatever answer they want.

In reality yes it is a well managed plan with good investment returns over time and low management costs partly due to its massive scale.

When it comes to arguments like “the managers make too much money” well you can’t argue with jealousy.

If someone ended up with a low CPP then I guess they. did not earn much in Canada. I can’t fix that. But since people who argue the CPP returns are too low are probably star investors they got nothing to worry about.

And, PennyHenny, that’s all I got to say about that, except of course “stupid is as stupid writes”.

#36 Russ on 08.15.22 at 5:10 pm

Dolce,

Here is something else that Italy does better than North America.

Ancient candidates fielded into politics. This one is even older than Biden!

https://citswarangal.com/italian-actress-gina-lollobrigida-95-says-she-will-run-in-general-election-italy/

Cheers, R

#37 Mattl on 08.15.22 at 5:28 pm

Markets have recovered 100% of the time. – Garth

———————

Never suggested otherwise and will note there have been periods where that recovery took years.

I think this recovery is premature when you consider we aren’t anywhere close to taming inflation – celebrating an inflation report that saw the non oil basket increase is weak sauce – and consumer spending adjusted for inflation is anemic. I believe corp profits are getting whacked in Q3/Q4, if they don’t great, I’m fully invested. Just not overly bullish at this time.

Inflation comes from a not economy. Figure it out. – Garth

#38 Flop… on 08.15.22 at 5:39 pm

Flop Drops.

How many times in the past couple of years, younger people on here bemoan the supposed fact that they will never be able to own real estate for the rest of their lives?

My Dad just died, he and my Mum bought 3 houses in his time on this earth.

The small brick bungalow starter home, to raise his family.

The empty nester project house, full house and grounds restoration and modernization.

The retirement condo in warmer climes.

Never stretched themselves too thin, real estate wise, bought what they could afford, each purchase with purpose.

Fraser Valley is correcting majorly, maybe a young couple haven’t missed their chance after all?

Enforced savings of the last couple of years ready to go?

Let’s shop.

The details…

45782 Victoria Avenue, Chilliwack.

Original ask 949k

Just sold for 560k

Assessment 632k

So back in the halcyon real estate days of March 2022, when a blow-off was happening, they tried to get close to a million, 5 months later it went closer to half a million.

These things happen, during the last minor correction in Vancouver during 2017-2018, you had about an 18 month window where the speculators on developers sat on their hands for a while, before lifting them back up and the market taking off again.

560k to live in Chilliwack, not for me, but only a short time ago these places were going for million, the game is always changing, keep your eyes on the prize.

Six months in price reductions, more than the average person can save in a couple of decades.

If you say you’ll never own something, keep your head in the sand, then it becomes self fulfilling…

M48BC

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2701637/45782-VICTORIA-AVENUE-Chilliwack-BC/

#39 Penny Henny on 08.15.22 at 5:43 pm

#35 Shawn on 08.15.22 at 5:07 pm
Is CPP a good plan with decent returns?

Same as house buy versus rent it seems people calculate and manipulate the data to give whatever answer they want.

In reality yes it is a well managed plan with good investment returns over time and low management costs partly due to its massive scale.

When it comes to arguments like “the managers make too much money” well you can’t argue with jealousy.

If someone ended up with a low CPP then I guess they. did not earn much in Canada. I can’t fix that. But since people who argue the CPP returns are too low are probably star investors they got nothing to worry about.

And, PennyHenny, that’s all I got to say about that, except of course “stupid is as stupid writes”.

???????????????????

Who? What?
Try to keep up.

Is this the dumb Shawn?

#40 DMC on 08.15.22 at 5:43 pm

Never understood why market pessimists come to a financial blog to blab about how they’re not convinced the market is seeing things clearly. lol Coffee table economists and couch potato market predictors have no place spewing garbage in the comments. If you’re constructive on the markets or have tax or estate strategies to help the blog dogs out with new perspective, chime in…otherwise, debate your doom & gloom to the BNN channel you likely have streaming all day long.

#41 canuck on 08.15.22 at 5:52 pm

The great con hope isn’t anti vaxx, he’s pro choice. Apparently that’s a bad thing unless you’re talking abortion.

No recession? Bloomberg’s headlines today are; Wells Fargo plans retreat from mortgage business and US Home builder confidence lowest since 2007. Some are seeing more storm clouds than our blogger.

In public heath issues you don’t get a choice. That’s why it’s public – protecting society. If you want to be in a society and benefit fully, you play by the rules. Pepe is just milking to the crowd. He knows better. As for the mortgage business, of course it’s hurting, and the hurt will go on. What have I told you about rates & housing, a thousand times? – Garth

#42 Reality check on 08.15.22 at 6:03 pm

NOSTRADAMUS on 08.15.22 at 4:53 pm
A SLEASY TACTIC !
I am still seeing realtor ads “SOLD” for $100,000. over asking price.
—————-

I seem to recall that in Ontario back in the 1980s if an offer was made on a house at full asking without any clauses and a reasonable possession – it was sold!

I’m thinking there was a court case – seller listing below market hoping for bidding war and only 1 cash offer at asking. And courts found in favour of buyer.

I am sure there was much expensive wining and dining of politicians by the ontario real estate board to get rid of such “a deal is a deal”’nonsense.

#43 That Guy on 08.15.22 at 6:20 pm

Time and again the song remains the same: financial assets provide wealth. Although I feel that mentioning his name is a risk since he’s surely not right about it all, I am reminded of Robert Kiyosaki’s advice about assets versus liabilities. For those not in the “know” a house is not an asset.

#44 45782 Victoria Ave on 08.15.22 at 6:26 pm

They still paid too much. The previous year assessment was $415K which is what I’d say it’s really worth.

#45 AM in MN on 08.15.22 at 6:27 pm

Garth,

Not everyone disagrees with your analysis, especially on real estate and the full cost analysis.

I think you’re wrong on inflation, CBs, money printing, etc., and its negative effects on working people.

Printing money transfers wealth from the paycheck slaves to the asset owners. A sound currency allows for true economic growth.

A B/D portfolio that makes 6% in a year when the money supply is goosed by 9% is actually a 3% loss. This is why so many middle class people feel a bit more poor each year, especially when paying for essentials.

The threat of PP firing the BoC Gov might put pressure on to firm up the currency before he even becomes PM? That would be good for working people. Take a look at the number of 20-somethings at his rallies and membership sign-ups. They know they will be debt slaves to the boomers for the rest of their lives unless something changes.

We are not in a recession, but a rotation, alot of which is brought on by demographics. There just aren’t enough young people to look after all of the old people.

Old people expect free health care and good service at restaurants, all provided by young people.

Some articles recently about the number of “assisted” deaths in Canada passing 10,000/yr. now. This will be a growth industry for many….

#46 Stone on 08.15.22 at 6:36 pm

How about you, I asked?

“I trade two or three times a week.”

And who’s doing better?

It was suddenly time to rinse.

———

Sometimes, you do nothing for let’s say 2 and a half years and then you make changes. Things aren’t static.

My B&D portfolio at -5.83% ytd.

#47 chalkie on 08.15.22 at 6:38 pm

I am sure glad that we are not on the receiving end of blame for what China did today on the lowering of interest rates, it will drive some North American prices higher and interest rates up even more as it nose dives real estate prices at the same time, recession or no recession, it will feel like an eternity of time, before we return to any sort of what we consider to be a normal way of life. As they say, One nice thing about being over the age of 50 is, we did all our stupid stuff before the invention of internet, so “there is no proof”.

#48 Dr V on 08.15.22 at 6:49 pm

Bandit is sticking his tongue out at us! So cute!

OK, now I’ll read the post.

#49 roofer on 08.15.22 at 6:51 pm

I agree Garth in that people should be staying invested BUT people should take almost all money out of Canada and transfer into a safer country abroad. I see Canada going full communist soon and trust in the Government is extremely low in those circumstances.

You first. – Garth

#50 Felix on 08.15.22 at 6:53 pm

Excellent photo. The average IQ of readers today has shot up by over 40%, and the haters have almost disappeared.
No coincidence.

#51 Robert on 08.15.22 at 6:54 pm

Catch-up comment from yesterday….thanks for taking the time to write each day. I only wish more of the nonsense was filtered from the comments to make them readable!

#52 wow unreal on 08.15.22 at 7:12 pm

In public heath issues you don’t get a choice.

Well, actually we do get a choice and it’s quite concerning that you hold the above viewpoint.

Include the rest of the statement. – Garth

#53 Bob in Hamilton on 08.15.22 at 7:31 pm

#31 Bob in Hamilton on 08.15.22 at 4:48 pm

What’s the scoop on the Elgin property? Still negotiating?

Yes. – Garth

Good Luck and Success!

#54 George on 08.15.22 at 7:42 pm

Garth and everyone, you have seen nothing yet when it comes to inflation. In the nest 5 years, by 2027 get ready to pay 76% more for everything or 15.2% per year, or 12% compounded annually. Make fun now but in 5 years everyone will be complaining through their nose.

#55 PBrasseur on 08.15.22 at 7:44 pm

The question you need to ask yourself is: why no recession?

Could it be because our government and many others spent hundreds of billions of dollars and that money’s still working through the system.

Once that inflationary stimulus has gone through then what happens? Our wonderful productivity will save the day? Don’t think so.

BTW the reason China is lowering, it’s massive RE bubble is popping and it’s economy is on the brink of a catastrophic financial crisis, banks already limiting withdrawals… Yeah things are really going great!

Has it been four years – maybe five – that you have been moaning here? Getting old. – Garth

#56 Luc on 08.15.22 at 7:49 pm

Very sad to hear that buyers are being tricked for pandemic reasons…. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/housing-development-ontario-affordable-1.6549602

#57 Tammy on 08.15.22 at 7:52 pm

George, I think you are only partially right. I think we will be begging for $3 gas in 5 years when it hits $4 a liter and everything else from electricity and food is 150% or more higher by 2027.

#58 inflation is rampant on 08.15.22 at 8:13 pm

51 years ago today, on 08/15/1971, Nixon suspended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold.

The U.S. dollar has lost 86% its value since 1971.

$100 in 1971 purchasing power is about $731.55 needed today.

Not only has the USD lost 86% of its purchasing power in dollar terms since the gold window closed in 1971, but it also lost 77% of its value against the Swiss franc (4.25 to 0.94).

In other words, what a tourist with $100 could buy in the Alps in 1971 would now cost $3,178

those are facts folks. just pain facts.

Gold had nothing to do with it and never again will an economy have a currency based on rocks. – Garth

#59 Brian on 08.15.22 at 8:26 pm

DELETED

#60 DON on 08.15.22 at 8:33 pm

#28 Mattl on 08.15.22 at 4:39 pm
Inflation only decreased because of the drop in oil prices. The basket of non oil related goods increased. Inflation is still at 8%, 6% north of target, and 3x the bank rate. Hardly a positive story.

One scenario is rates need to add 200-300bps before inflation is tamed. I think Mr Market is misreading what is happening, or, he knows the centrals are not actually commited to 2% inflation.

Listen I’m happy the market is rallying, a few more big weeks and I’m net positive for the year. But hard to believe this is anything other then a headfake.

Markets have recovered 100% of the time. – Garth

*******
Mattl you are researching…Mogan Stanley used the CPI Head fake caution recently. Roubini and orhers like Micheal Burry are stressing about the tapped out consumer (increase in credit card debt) and potential impact on Q3/Q4 earnings etc (jobs a lagging indicator).

But the stock markets will recover and grow faster than other assets when everything is depressed. Garth is preaching balance and staying power to not let emotion get the best of you or a timeline. There is a whole generation of new adults coming down the pipe that won’t be indebted and will spend money and spur growth. Those who got caught in a bubble like the folks in the 80’s or dot com in the200s etc will tread water more or less through divorces and bankruptcy and others will be ok and some will have made out like bandits and will spend freely driving the economic engine. We can’t predict the future events in a definitive manner but we can take the tried and true approach and hope for best. Talking ETFs…stocks you take your chances, unless they have a long and good track record.

Garth is navigating us through the juggernaut, no one knows for sure…but I think it will be a bumpy ride at best.

#61 Is anybody listening? on 08.15.22 at 8:38 pm

We can only hope!

Are Justin Trudeau And Jagmeet Singh Getting Divorced?

https://thenationaltelegraph.com/opinion/are-justin-trudeau-and-jagmeet-singh-getting-divorced

#62 robert james on 08.15.22 at 8:57 pm

#38 Flop… on 08.15.22 at 5:39 pm ……. Mr. Flop ,, Keep those Flop Drops coming !! I enjoy them…

#63 the Jaguar on 08.15.22 at 8:58 pm

For Pete’s sake, Garth. Don’t even breathe the word tattoo anywhere in your blog post. You know what happened last time. All the ‘etched’ types ( which is 70% of the population) came out in droves to defend their freedom of bodily expression. One man’s art is another man’s eyesore, however. Enough said.

As for the markets, yield curves, oil prices, and the beating of far away jungle drums….it’s only mid August. The movers and shakers are all on vacation slathering on sunscreen and another vodka martini. Long held cherished traditions still hold. Some are priceless, others only for the benefit of their shallow admirers, and for everything else there is Mastercard.

( Is it just me that thinks the head on that cat Bandit looks a bit large for the body? Has it been photoshopped using digitally image editing software? Another deception, but to what end? Another Lee Harvey Oswald moment, no doubt.)

#64 The Gold Standard on 08.15.22 at 9:07 pm

Gold had nothing to do with it and never again will an economy have a currency based on rocks. – Garth

Yeah, because a gold standard would require central banks and governments to act responsibly.

#65 PeterfromCalgary on 08.15.22 at 9:21 pm

More US law makers are visiting Taiwan. That is crazy and they should stop poking the Chinese cobra with a stick.

“China has staged a new round of military drills around Taiwan in response to a brief visit to the island by a delegation of bipartisan US lawmakers. The arrival of the lawmakers took place after the House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to the island.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/15/us-lawmakers-to-meet-taiwan-president-as-china-tensions-simmer

#66 Cow Man on 08.15.22 at 9:22 pm

Sir Garth:

To your readers please let me state.

I have known Garth for about 40 years, as he was my Federal MP. I have spoken to him personally and met with him numerous times. I am not a client of Turner Wealth Management. I do not agree with some of his positions, and do agree with others. I cannot believe the venom that is directed toward Garth by those who have probably contributed much less to our communities and our Country than Garth has. A house is a liability not an asset. Just because those of you who attack Garth do not yet know this does not mean it is not true.

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.22 at 9:41 pm

@#63 The jaguar
“For Pete’s sake, Garth. Don’t even breathe the word tattoo anywhere in your blog post.”
+++
Yep.
Once a person gets a “tat”….it’s a rare person that stops at one.
I saw a young girl( mid 20’s) on the weekend that had tattooed cartoon characters all up and down both arms.
Some were outlines. Some were fully colored and filled in.
Cartoons.
One wonders what she will ” be splainin’ to her grandkids when they aske her about Popeye, Goofy and Casper….
Or the homeless that have “no place to live” and are covered in expensive tats…..

#68 KNOW IT ALL on 08.15.22 at 9:49 pm

……..and then I stopped worrying.

#69 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.22 at 10:05 pm

@#65 Peter for Communism
“More US law makers are visiting Taiwan. That is crazy and they should stop poking the Chinese cobra with a stick.”

+++
Yesssss.
Because 40 years of pretending Taiwan isn’t a country has worked out so well.
Time to take the gloves off with the China bullies.
Wolf Warrior meets a slap in the face.

Newsflash China.
TAIWAN IS ITS OWN COUNTRY.
They aren’t interested in joining a ruthless communist dictatorship.
Deal with it.

#70 Blutterfy on 08.15.22 at 10:21 pm

Me and my husband’s aunt were talking about why women are better investors. Because our genes have been trained to buy stuff on sale. Women see price reductions as great things – time to buy and stock up! Me and my hubs have a little competition going (each started with $1000). Guess who’s in the triple digits and who doubled their money? A little puddle fund to keep these millennials off of Reddit and social media, and to distract from checking the balanced portfolio more than twice a year.

#71 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.15.22 at 10:22 pm

Inflation slaying BC style.

The first 33,000 Govt workers have decided to start “job action”
Liquor store distribution is getting slammed.

There are 385,000 BC Govt employees bargaining new contracts this year.

The first 33,000 were offered $2700 to sign and 10% over 3 years…….
They want 24% over 3 years….
” Because the cost of living went up 9% last year”……
Can you say inflation?
I knew you could.

#72 45north on 08.15.22 at 10:25 pm

Flop

45782 Victoria Avenue, Chilliwack.
Original ask 949k
Just sold for 560k
Assessment 632k

so last year BC Assessment assessed the property at $632K. This year the owners will get a notice saying what the property is worth this year.

In January, BC Assessment sends notices for 2 million properties. Let’s say each property drops $40,000 so the total drop in value is 2 million X $40,000 = $80 billion.

#73 Ram Zam on 08.15.22 at 10:29 pm

Remember the ‘80’s? That was a two headed recession where on one side the stock market was booming and tent cities were invented? We don’t know the truth of the Biden WH employment numbers. They are in a desperate funk to shore up Democrat votes in November. Everything they say and do revolves around that. Junkies lie for a fix, it’s what desperate people do. Take all official numbers with a grain of salt. Canadian numbers are highly suspect. Are Liberals playing the same strategy? Probably so. Whatever the polls, the Market and Main St breathe different oxygen. So if you see ‘ inflation peaking’ and prices falling, along with a bitter dose of disbelief, isn’t the failing economy indicating deflation rather than the good news political spin? Be careful what you ask for, you might get it. You know what ‘they’ say, “ we can live with inflation, but deflation is an economy killer”. But, Justin’s back from his aerosol spraying the atmosphere with his non polluting jet fuel private jet vacation after a cabinet minister groused at Canadians “ why can’t they just take their vacations in Canada”? Maybe he bought carbon credits from Greenpeace.

#74 Chameleon on 08.15.22 at 10:32 pm

The Meowing has arrived.

I has been __1__ day(s) since a dog photo.

All dogs and no cats make Garth a dull boy.

#75 Robert Cover on 08.15.22 at 10:56 pm

Garth, you slay me. I love your writing style and man you got the goods. It’s always been a long race for me. None of these hiccup that are not good for my tummy. I just take the best advice there is , invest and wait. Maybe rebalance and diversify as the need happens. I’d like to think I’ve been sane by following the adage “thou shall not carry excessive debt” and thou shalt may your money work for you, if its too good to be true stay away! Works for me.

#76 Nonplused on 08.15.22 at 11:03 pm

It’s a recession. Oh well, recessions happen. Part of life.

Inflation is still breathtakingly high. A decline from 9% to 8.5% isn’t the end game. Maybe “the beginning of the end” because it’s the right direction. But if you believe that inflation responds to interest rates, as central bankers seem to, rates are not going down soon. My bet would be they keep going up. So far as I know the target is still 2% so inflation is still 4 times too high. That means rates are still too low.

And unfortunately, a return to 2% inflation, if and when it occurs, does not mean lower prices. It just means they continue up at a more measured rate. We may as well get used to the “new normal”. Ask for a raise.

#77 IHCTD9 on 08.15.22 at 11:50 pm

#55 Flop… on 08.13.22 at 7:14 pm.

…Trackie,I actually sent you an inferior version of this report a couple of weeks ago, but I think you were having a break.

This is a nicer version with better fonts and pictures of Canada’s Best Small Cities of 2022.

Top 25.

Much maligned Victoria and Kelowna came in at 1-2.

The reason I tried to get your attention was Thunder Bay came in at 21 and healthcare was a feature as you age.

Since you warned me off New Brunswick, St Catharines was the one I looked at the hardest.

This was as well put together report as I’ve ever seen on the subject.
————

Not much GF time this past weekend Flop, sorry for the late reply. Don’t know St. Cat too well, only been by there a couple times. It may be an idea to just camp out and watch the MLS out here for the next year or so.

My area (2 hrs east of the gta) had so much to offer prior to Covid. A decent house was 350K, there are jobs – trades do well here due to all the retirees. There are government, factory, paper mill and civy CAF jobs too. Older demographic with cash, lots of them in surrounding small towns living on the water in fancy houses. Landscapers are just killing it. Wages are (were?) “good enough”. Dual incomes required to do well. Post Covid prices have put a big dent in what made this place great.

Maybe, just maybe- the coming years will see a slide back to where we were before Covid. If so, you could draw an arc around the gta representing a 2 hour drive (minimum) and look at your options for housing and work.

I still give T-Bay two thumbs up, it’s a little rough, dated, cold, and the Mill stinks things up some days, but the package deal is there for a good standard of living. I see Kingston is #3 on the list. It’s a seriously great town still. It’s got it all, and then some – except cheap houses. There is a lot of money in Kingston. I’d live there myself – and that’s saying a lot from a hillbilly like me. Maybe on the outskirts houses might be affordable, but forget about decent digs for 250K. If you make it there, you can invite me over for beers since I am in town regularly. Honestly, it’s worth stretching the finances a bit to become a Kingstonite if it looks doable. Last time I was there I saw two big signs out by the road looking for a gas fitter and another looking for a truck mechanic. ~75K and 5K signing bonus.

I’d probably camp out on the MLS for a while to see what happens to prices. They are tanking right now, but not enough yet. If we get back to 2019, a lot of good options in southern Ontario will open up. Especially 2+ hrs East of Toronto and beyond.

#78 FatiguedBuyer on 08.16.22 at 12:10 am

Garth, what would you recommend to someone who has a largeish (>$300k) down payment in cash waiting for buy a house right now? Would you keep it in cash as most people would when you plan to use the money in the next 5 years, or would you invest? We’re renting which was expensive at the time but now is probably cheap relative to buying the same house. But it isn’t stable. It’s a young couple who owns it and clearly has plans to move in or sell in the next few years. New rentals are few and far between in our neck of the woods (especially with a pooch).

It sucks sitting in cash for potentially many years. But it would equally suck to invest and have to sell at a loss if your timing isn’t right.

This dilemma makes the housing market even worse for folks trying to get in, as many pay that opportunity cost to even be looking. Or as self employed individuals, draw higher than needed salaries to have a good income on paper for the mortgage approval (paying more tax than needed along with it).

#79 Linda on 08.16.22 at 12:29 am

#18 ‘Victor’ – your resentment at your enforced contributions to CPP are noted. I think you meant ’employer contributions’, not ’employee’ when voicing your support for shutting down the CPP & returning all contributions. Keep in mind you’d only get back what you paid in. Not the employer portion – the employer would also receive back their contributions on behalf of employees. Also any investment gains/interest would likely be kept by the government since that was generated by fund managers, not the contributors. Winding up a pension behemoth like CPP would take both time & money which those investment gains would handily pay for. And you know, the former employees who managed the CPP would likely receive severance. If they were earning 6 figures you know that they wouldn’t be let go with just a handshake!

#80 BCWally on 08.16.22 at 12:31 am

Well, since “on the surface” was mentioned that GDP number the US is using is inflation adjusted.
The economy actually grew 7.8%, in nominal terms for the 2nd quarter. After inflation it was slightly negative. That’s how much inflation eats away at growth and our pockets.
Look even deeper and their consumer spending grew 1%, after inflation! Pretty impressive and the reason I looked deeper. No way is your economy shrinking with spending like that.
That 7.8% is actually larger than any quarter from 2010 to early 2020 and then Covid hit.
So obviously this “recession” news all over the financial outlets is fraudulent. Must be all ex realtors.

#81 SoggyShorts on 08.16.22 at 12:58 am

#46 Stone on 08.15.22 at 6:36 pm

My B&D portfolio at -5.83% ytd.

-6.94% ytd here, and I’ll take it. We just need a few months without blackswan stuff (e.g. please leave Taiwan alone) and we should be in the pluses.

How do you feel about the CPP debate BTW?
IMO As an early retiree, there are just way too many non-contributing years baked in for me.
I opted out of CPP by paying myself dividends the last 10 years of work and the last time I calced I think I figured out I’ll get $100 per month at 60…

#82 DJT on 08.16.22 at 3:27 am

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#83 Joe Lalonde on 08.16.22 at 4:22 am

I always enjoy reading a different perspective and different avenues of information so that I too can understand where our future financial system is taking us.

https://thesaker.is/a-stran

View — uploads.disquscdn.com

That shiny rock many call it is accumulated for a reason…just the United States and Western Nations forgotten it had value in the past for trade.

#84 Shawn on 08.16.22 at 7:54 am

To Penny Henny

And, PennyHenny, that’s all I got to say about that, except of course “stupid is as stupid writes”.

***************************
My response on CPP was becasue you asked for it. The stupid part did not refer to you but people who claim things like paying $3000 into CPP for 40 years. Or claiming its a poor return manager based on losing value in the past three months.

I think we all know that the level of stupidity in many comments is epic.

Forest Gump you will recall was not only a great philosopher but a fantastic investor.

#85 Stone on 08.16.22 at 8:01 am

#81 SoggyShorts on 08.16.22 at 12:58 am
#46 Stone on 08.15.22 at 6:36 pm

My B&D portfolio at -5.83% ytd.

-6.94% ytd here, and I’ll take it. We just need a few months without blackswan stuff (e.g. please leave Taiwan alone) and we should be in the pluses.

How do you feel about the CPP debate BTW?
IMO As an early retiree, there are just way too many non-contributing years baked in for me.
I opted out of CPP by paying myself dividends the last 10 years of work and the last time I calced I think I figured out I’ll get $100 per month at 60…

———

That’s great! I suspected you’d be catching back up pretty quickly. I also suspect that you may fly by me in short order and get back into the black before I do.

As for CPP, 2022 is the last year I fully paid into it and I suspect will be my last. I wasn’t actually counting on it. If it is available when I’m 60, I’m not going to refuse it, nor OAS if I qualify for it. I’m all for extra poggy.

#86 Kevin on 08.16.22 at 8:08 am

My B&D down 8.14% yr. as of today. Still a believer. I think.

#87 Summertime on 08.16.22 at 8:29 am

It seems we are close to the ‘neutral’ interest rates phantasy that marks the end of the ‘tightening’ cycle – around 3-3.5 % with CPI of 9 % and real inflation of necessities 18-20 %.

Next comes 30, 50 years and then intergenerational mortgages:

https://www.ft.com/content/281fbba6-28e2-42d4-b241-0f215995f0d1

A new lender has been granted a license by UK financial regulators to offer mortgages with fixed rates of up to 50 years in a move aimed at helping borrowers manage soaring inflation.

It seems the inflation will be fought with more inflation by the idiots in power of the financial and monetary policies.

#88 jess on 08.16.22 at 8:46 am

velocity: efficiency in dishonesty

Biden extended the statute of limitations to 10 years from five to go after all the scammers receiving funds during covid….fake personas / companies and even laughing online discussed in chat rooms and YouTube videos,
… Some used the money on necessities, like mortgage bills or car payments. But many seemed to act out of opportunism and greed, splurging on a yacht, a mansion, a $38,000 Rolex or a $57,000 Pokemon trading card. (new york times)

And the fintech were no better at screening the clients either.

#89 Brian on 08.16.22 at 8:51 am

One of the World’s Frothiest Housing Markets Turned Into a Seller’s Headache Overnight

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/one-of-the-world-s-frothiest-housing-markets-turned-into-a-seller-s-headache-overnight?utm_medium=cpc_social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=BLOM_ENG_EDITORL_COUSA_TW_SO_WENG_EVERGRNLAL_LALXX_00XXXXCPA_2LTW_XXXX_SITEVISITLALX_XXXXX_COUSA_XXXXX_TWITOA_FROT_E3_EN_PG_NFLINKS&twclid=21ze9ro8px68ldjfz807rk1qq5

#90 Tony on 08.16.22 at 9:16 am

Canadian CPI for July falls to 7.6 from 8.1 in line with expectations.

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi

#91 Dave on 08.16.22 at 9:24 am

My unbalanced and undiversified portfolio still at a boring 2.95%, yielding $57,000 annually. Annual living expenses at $18,000. Happy to be retired!

#92 Linda on 08.16.22 at 10:07 am

So the official number is 7.6% for July. Park your unicorn folks, nothing to see here! To be fair, there was mention of the fact the core inflation factors were still a concern, as they had either held steady or increased slightly from the previous month. However I still think the official number is presenting the rosiest possible scenario, with just a touch of delusional thrown in.

#93 6IX Percent on 08.16.22 at 10:07 am

6%. Just six, nothing else. Don’t argue about it, we can model.

>>>
Canadian home prices down 6 per cent in July from February peak, the largest five-month decline since 2009

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-home-prices-july-2022/

…also inflation just 7.6IX%.

#94 Arcticfox on 08.16.22 at 10:15 am

After 2000, the nasdaq rose 20 or more 7 times on its way to a 78% correction in 2002. Just saying !

#95 Sorry for miscommunication, this is what I meant on 08.16.22 at 10:22 am

DELETED (Anti-vaccine)

#96 Sail Away on 08.16.22 at 10:23 am

Hey Dolce, our homemade plum wine will give that Italian merlot a run for its money anyday. These trees have been here for 50 years. Pairs well with elk, moose and pheasant.

How about this: 20 bottles of merlot for 20 bottles of plum. I’ll throw in a sweetener jug of slivovitz distilled by my moonshining neighbour. Deal?

#97 Dharma Bum on 08.16.22 at 10:52 am

#40 DMC

Coffee table economists and couch potato market predictors have no place spewing garbage in the comments.
——————————————————————————————————-

It’s exactly where they should be spewing.

Why do you think this is called the steerage section?

So idiots like yourself and myself can opine in all our ignorant glory on subjects that we are not formally trained in.

This is not a a Harvard Department of Economics classroom.

It’s a Confederacy of Dunces.

I am so proud and honoured to be a member!

#98 Dharma Bum on 08.16.22 at 11:06 am

#68 Know it all

……..and then I stopped worrying.
——————————————————————————————————-

How I Learned to Stop Worrying…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfxcIGxedXc

#99 Fringe on 08.16.22 at 11:11 am

With every passing day, people who throw their support behind Trudeau instead of Tamara dwindle in number. Trudeau is the leader of a vindictive, fringe minority.

Garth, I’ve been a blog reader for 13 years but you are completely out to lunch on this one.

It’s not Tamara vs Trudeau – a choice between the wacky and the wokey. Most people are in the middle. – Garth

#100 Summertime on 08.16.22 at 11:38 am

A thought for the sheeple that qualifies as ‘labour in high demand’:

You are absolutely in control of your wages in a very tight labour market for high quality jobs. Everything short of high teens % or above salary increase is an absolute failure on your part to negotiate higher wages.

Looking at current inflation in food, rents, services it is the absolute minimum to just stay afloat.

Any conformance and agreement with minimum wage increases is in essence intentional impoverishment.

#101 Quintilian on 08.16.22 at 11:48 am

#94 Arcticfox on 08.16.22 at 10:15 am
“After 2000, the nasdaq rose 20 or more 7 times on its way to a 78% correction in 2002. Just saying !”

Stay tuned for a series of daily 1,000 swings on the Dow, just around the corner.

#102 Km on 08.16.22 at 11:48 am

@26 Sam
Anyone, literally anyone who has money pays themselves first by setting aside money even in small amounts. We unfortunately did not know much until this blog and never had any idea about compound interest but are learning and doing ok. We manage to still be able to eat out and have fun money after we contribute first into our investments and we are renters. You will remain poor if you are unable to understand spending every bit left on satisfaction for now and nothing left for tomorrow. Clearly you have not looked up anything beyond this blog to understand long term wealth being grown. No one will do this for you so in the end if you are eating cat food at 70 it is your own fault. You are being offered free advice on this blog, maybe use it.

#103 Love_The_Cottage on 08.16.22 at 11:49 am

#99 Fringe on 08.16.22 at 11:11 am
Trudeau is the leader of a vindictive, fringe minority.
_______
Which specific policy that has been implemented is vindictive? Thanks, I look forward to your insight.

#104 Craig on 08.16.22 at 11:51 am

Dave, it sounds like you have GICs and maybe bonds. If you are retired making $57,000 a year and your expenses are only $18,000 and retired, you are ahead of the game. I am in a similar situation as I am almost retired and have all my investments in GICs, OSBs and making $50,000 a year income from interest all tax deferred, tax free, RRSPs, TFSAs. My wife and I will soon retire next year, get our early CPP as my wife too and with $70,000 a gross, $45,000 yearly net income left over after living expenses, taxes, we are a okay.

#105 Medic Mike on 08.16.22 at 11:59 am

“In public health issues you don’t get a choice. That’s why it’s public – protecting society. If you want to be in a society and benefit fully, you play by the rules. “

Quite possibly the best quote I have read.

#106 West New West on 08.16.22 at 12:16 pm

Pepe is doing what he needs to do to get elected. And as with all the others, he will slowly pivot to the middle and in my opinion has already started….he’s already stopped talking about defunding the CBC. He knows firing the bank governor makes no difference and he will tone that one down also.

The current Lib government is messing so much up….passports, Arrivecan, the airports, emergency rooms closing due to staff shortages, with no clear visible leadership to address any of this…..the irony of Trudeau taking a holiday in Costa Rica at the same time that the leader there enacts a law against mandates is priceless. Legacy media is silent and a bunch of independent ‘journalists’ in their bedrooms are taking up the gap. Trudeau won’t acknowledge RebelNews, but, they will still be here after he’s long gone.

At this point it seems that pepe could drive down Yonge Street knocking down pedestrians and still get elected.

#107 Arcticfox on 08.16.22 at 12:45 pm

#94 should have said 20%

#108 Faron on 08.16.22 at 1:13 pm

It’s cool that you guys and gals are into The Saker. Just be aware that it is a well known mouthpiece of disinformation from the Russian state masked as a blog.

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/the-saker-blind-loyalty-disguised-as-defiance/#

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Pillars-of-Russia%E2%80%99s-Disinformation-and-Propaganda-Ecosystem_08-04-20.pdf

Discernment people. When you lack discernment you can expect much less tolerance for “differing opinions”. One of the reasons I have very little time for The Jaguar and Sail Away — they occasionally to frequently trade in some of the worst internet garbage.

#109 Penny Henny on 08.16.22 at 1:20 pm

#91 Dave on 08.16.22 at 9:24 am
My unbalanced and undiversified portfolio still at a boring 2.95%, yielding $57,000 annually. Annual living expenses at $18,000. Happy to be retired!

/////////////

Hey big spender ;)

#110 Amanda on 08.16.22 at 1:23 pm

Medic Mike, just like cows, pigs, chickens getting their shots. We are all barn yard animals now.

Children cannot be enrolled in public education without vaccination. We are all safer. – Garth

#111 Love_The_Cottage on 08.16.22 at 1:32 pm

#106 West New West on 08.16.22 at 12:16 pm
The current Lib government is messing so much up….the airports, emergency rooms closing due to staff shortages
________
The airlines did a great job of blaming the government. Airlines don’t have enough trained baggage handlers after layoffs during COVID but it’s Trudeau’s fault. The ArriveCan app takes 90 seconds to fill out while on the plane but that’s why Air Canada can’t land a plane on time. Classic.

The health care system is the responsibility of the provinces. Ford passes a law limiting nurses salary increases to 1% and then looks for someone else to blame. He found money for a new highway but not health care.

Now Ford is offering teachers between 1.25% and 2% per year after 3 years of 1%. As the public school system drops in quality and teachers retire and move to other professions I look forward to finding out this is Trudeau’s fault too.

#112 Mattl on 08.16.22 at 2:00 pm

#60 Don – I get that, it is why I read here. Fully invested, balanced, one home and more in financial assets then in RE equity. Directionally I am always aligned with Garth.

Doesn’t mean I can’t see short term risk. I have access to data, that I can’t publish here, that tracks consumer spend / same store sales. I don’t like the trend, at all.

I’m also not sure what is so positive about an inflation report that saw the primary basket increase, after 200bps in increases. If the centrals are TRULY concerned about inflation, not hard to see another 1.5-3% added to rates. I mean, inflation is at 3x the centrals target, and save for oil, growing? This is positive news how exactly?

#113 Squire on 08.16.22 at 2:32 pm

#56 Luc on 08.15.22 at 7:49 pm
Very sad to hear that buyers are being tricked for pandemic reasons…. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/housing-development-ontario-affordable-1.6549602
—————————————————-
caveat emptor
with so many resale properties for sale, why bother with a builder and those large deposits that go along with it. Did I also mention, being held hostage to an agreement with goal posts. No thanks.

#114 jess on 08.16.22 at 2:57 pm

the term 3-6-3 Rule describes how the United States retail banking industry operated from the 1950s to the 1980s.[1]: 51  The name 3-6-3 refers to the impression that bankers had a stable, comfortable existence by paying 3 percent interest on deposits, lending money out at 6 percent, and being able to “tee off at the golf course by 3 p.m.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/feb/15/banking-deadly-sins

===========
reframing?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/16/most-damaging-farm-products-organic-pasture-fed-beef-lamb

#115 DMC on 08.16.22 at 5:29 pm

#97 Dharma Bum

So idiots like yourself and myself can opine in all our ignorant glory on subjects that we are not formally trained in.
——————————————————————————-

The difference being, some of us are formally trained and are not ignorant (including myself), making all the idiotic comments from those who have no clue except from the headlines scrolling across their screens that much more annoying and painful to filter through.

All the more confidence tho I guess, that we truly are playing a game against lounge chair amateurs and I’m happy to take all of their money since the market is a zero sum game, and while I’m winning, I can easily point out who are on the other side of that coin here.

#116 Bandit’s Owner on 08.16.22 at 6:31 pm

#63 @thejaguar .. this photo hasn’t been edited. It’s the angle I took the photo which is from above that would obviously make his head look bigger than his body. Sad you have to put down a cute kitty but hey you’re not the first weirdo out there!

#117 the Jaguar on 08.16.22 at 6:59 pm

@ #116 Bandit’s Owner on 08.16.22 at 6:31 pm++

Hey, I didn’t say the cat wasn’t attractive, just that the head looked large for the body and was possibly photo altered. Sheesh. I’m one of the cat supporters here…

#118 Chris on 08.16.22 at 7:33 pm

Amanda, it does not mean the UN and other world organizations d not see us people of the world like animals.