What’s the Fed to do?

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RYAN   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza
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Over the last week we’ve received two key economic reports that provide a direct line to future Fed rate decisions. And those interest rate decisions could largely dictate where the stock market heads over the next 12 months.

Today I’m going to review the July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the nonfarm payrolls reports to see what insights we can glean with respect to the future direction of interest rates.

First up is the US CPI report, which came in better-than-expected and could signal that peak of inflation that we’ve been calling for. US CPI was flat in July on a month-over-month (m/m) basis, following the 1.3% monthly increase in the prior month. As we expected, falling energy prices helped to moderate inflation last month.

More importantly, inflation on a year-over-year (y/y) basis declined to 8.5% in July, down from the 40-year high of 9.1% last month. While core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held firm at 5.9% y/y, this drop in headline inflation is huge and signals a potential peak in inflation.

The importance of this development is evident with the North American equity markets rallying strongly on the day of the release. If this trend continues then we might be through the worst of this inflation scare and closer to the end of the aggressive Fed (and BoC) rate hikes.

But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves just yet.

US CPI Declined to 8.5% Y/Y in July

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Moving on to the latest US jobs report, we saw another great jobs print with the US economy adding 528,000 jobs, crushing estimates of 257,000. With the July job gains the US has now recovered all of the Covid-19 job losses.

Wages also rose and now stand at 5.2% y/y and the unemployment rate stands at 3.6%, which is tied for the lowest level since 1969.

So basically full employment, the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, and wages are up. That’s a pretty bullish sign for the US economy.

This strong jobs report all but ensures a big Fed rate hike at their next meeting in September. We’re likely to see the Fed hike by 75 bps at that meeting then the Fed taking its foot off the pedal with a few smaller 25 bps hikes. Using a baseball analogy, I probably put as at the seventh inning stretch of rate hikes for this cycle.

North American Unemployment At Record Lows

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

You would think with a 50-year low in the US unemployment rate that Americans would be singing from the rooftops but this is far from the case. One possible explanation for this is the steep decline seen in the US Labour Force Participation Rate.

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) is responsible for US employment data. They classify all persons over the age of 16 as “unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior four weeks, and are currently available for work”. The labour force is then defined “all persons classified as employed or unemployed”.

As seen in the chart below, the US Labour Force Participation Rate has been steadily declining since 2000 and dropped like a stone following the pandemic. What this captures is that many Americans have stopped actively looking for work and have exited the labour market. Also known as the ‘Great Resignation’, many Americans have simply thrown in the towel and have given up looking for work. As a result this has impacted the US unemployment rate, by pushing it lower than it otherwise would be.

So while we should all be rejoicing the historically low unemployment rates in the US and Canada, it needs to be noted that some of the decline in the unemployment rate is due to a drop in the participation rate rather strictly due to an increase in employment.

US Labour Force Participation Rate

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Putting it all together, the very strong US employment data and high inflation levels will keep the Fed hawkish with more rate hikes to come. While the Fed is monitoring the declining Labour Force Participation Rate (a negative trend that suggests fewer rate hikes), they remain laser focused on the still high inflation levels and core inflation being well about their 2% target range.

Below are the current implied market expectations for the Fed Funds Rate with the markets pricing in another 125 bps of hikes before the Fed is done. The market then sees rate cuts later in 2023. This is consistent with my expectations and one big reason I see the stock market rallying in 2023.

Current Market Expectations for Fed Rate Hikes

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments
Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

92 comments ↓

#1 Omicron Kenobi on 08.13.22 at 9:58 am

Yes Ryan, everyone should load up now and buy lots of ETFs and stock shares for 2023.

Especially in the funeral home industry. Like Service Corpse International.

You’ll get rich. Then die.

Because we’re coming for all of you in Waves 8, 9 and 10.

Bwahahaahaaahaaaahaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#2 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.22 at 10:17 am

I’m more concerned about the Labour Participation Rate.
The Unemployment rate seems irrelevant at this point.
hundreds of thousands of workers have left the building and aint coming back.
Everywhere I have travelled it is the same complaint.
Jobs wanting workers.
One wonders what will happen if the Russian “Special Military Action” escalates into something much bigger and the US or it allies can’t get the specialized workers that build the missiles, planes, smart bombs and high tech drones
This unique economic experiment hasn’t played out to the bitter end yet and I’m sure Ivory Tower economists will be writing papers about it for the next 100 years trying to explain it all.

#3 THE DANDADA on 08.13.22 at 10:26 am

Sat down with an RBC wealth advisor yesterday.
He thinks 2023 is looking “very bad” for equities.

But something tells me Team Garth has one leg up on the competition.

#4 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.22 at 10:27 am

@#85 Henry Emerson
“Canada could easily afford this level of health care. We have the energy and mining riches to pave the TransCanada Hwy with gold, but our Liberal government chooses to spend the money elsewhere.”

+++

Yep
Trudeau and Butz can’t be bothered with the nitty gritty details of the boring day to day running of a country.
They have a much greater calling.

A National Daycare program has been promised since 2016….as our medical system has a cardiac arrest as doctor quit and nurses leave.

Budgets? Balance themselves…as we double our national debt in 4 short years.

Banning legally owned Firearms?
Looks good until one realizes most illegally used guns are illegally smuggled in to be used illegally be people with no firearms license.

Convicted violent criminals?
Serve 2/3’s of their sentence IF they are convicted.

Smoke and mirrors folks.
Just keep voting Liberal.
It’ll all be better soon.
I promise.

#5 IHCTD9 on 08.13.22 at 10:29 am

My condolences Flop. I’m glad you guys were able to bury the hatchet.

#6 the Jaguar on 08.13.22 at 11:03 am

The only part of this blog post by Ryan that I understood was ‘ Using a baseball analogy, I probably put as at the seventh inning stretch of rate hikes for this cycle.’

So, to stick with that analogy, my further analyis of the way out of this whole economic malaise and debacle would be to call up an outstanding closer.

I know the name that will pop into most heads would be Mariano Rivera. That’s a chestnut. But nope. If I am managing the way out of this mess there is only one guy. The one with the tenacity of a Rocky Mountain Marmot.

229 victories and 172 losses, with an earned run average (ERA) of 3.30. Who might that be? “El Tiante”, of course. Luis Clemente Tiant Vega from Havana, Cuba. The best there ever was. Check out this wind up. It brings tears to my eyes..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=md2k4NdOPmA

#7 Derek R on 08.13.22 at 11:13 am

Looks very reasonable, Ryan.

#8 Observer on 08.13.22 at 11:25 am

DELETED

#9 Dharma Bum on 08.13.22 at 11:38 am

The Fed finally has the opportunity to increase interest rates over the next year. The buffer is necessary – they know it! Consumer interest (borrowing) rates should be somewhere in the 8%-10% range to bring inflation down, and return housing prices to a more reasonable level. Pain will be felt in the short term, but economic stability will result in the long run. If the s-h-t-f down the road, there will be room for the Fed to maneuver.

#10 Dave on 08.13.22 at 12:00 pm

The question is when is the housing market going to bottom out?

#11 baloney Sandwitch on 08.13.22 at 12:04 pm

Canadian labour participation rate is higher than the US even though our unemployment is higher. The reason I think is that in general the quality of jobs is a little better in Canada than the US. Too many low quality jobs in the self-described “greatest country in the world”. lol – where the ex-potus is very likely a felon.
https://data.oecd.org/emp/labour-force-participation-rate.htm#:~:text=The%20labour%20force%20participation%20rates,percentage%20of%20each%20age%20group.

#12 Philco on 08.13.22 at 12:22 pm

Full disclosure.
I haven’t read anything here yet.
The fed is trapped as there’s no way in he’ll int will rocket higher.
The massive debt says so.
The RE decline will moderate and stabilize.
If ya didn’t do anything stupid don’t sweat it.
To much softballing from Garth as the quality of living has declinde big time. Dad drove logging truck in 1969 mom stayed in a brand new home with 4 kids and bought a new Ford station wagon $3,600. Mom had dad’s cheques in a drawer and cashed the 2 or 3 weeks after he got them.
Listen peeps your living in a government controlled massive debt inflation shit show these days. T2 could give a rats ass about anything but his power.
If your worth 8 digits like me zero debt I learned a thing or 2. Canada is run like a banana republic.
We need to gut the government and bring in a responsible small one that is accountable…like Ralf Klein style.
Stop doing biz with the ccp become energy independent.
Electric cars and the green dream are a joke and your going to pay for it dearly.
What the he’ll is the matter with people. Why can you see what’s going on.
Over my dead body I’ll alow the greatest nation on earth to go down the tube I’m passed.
T2 is a child. A spoiled one.
Let’s get real and you all will prosper.

#13 Philco on 08.13.22 at 12:33 pm

EVs lol this guy has most correct.
https://davemessler.substack.com/p/guest-article-the-electric-vehicle?s=r

So we the biggest country on earth the most trees the smallest population the highest carbon tax. I drive north for 20 hrs. TREES EVERYWHERE.
I’m wondering who the buffoon is T2 or the peeps.
That’s easy to answer no?? Both
Grab a brain Kanada.

I’d like to debate Justine. I’d crush him. Hate the guy.
Sorry Garth but I speak my mind. Life’s to short.

#14 The Original Jake on 08.13.22 at 12:39 pm

I am hearing a market consensus for a rate hike of 1/2 bps in Sept, down from 3/4. Personally, I would like to see the latter.

While the CPI was better than expected, it is miles from their target. So… why would they start dropping rates again next year unless 1) their 2% target is miraculously achieved; 2) they change their target; or 3) some black swan event hits us again.

At best, I see a pause. I certainly hope we don’t get a drop. Real estate is still way over priced and rates need to go much higher to pressure prices further down.

#15 Quintilian on 08.13.22 at 12:49 pm

Ryan says:
“More importantly, inflation on a year-over-year (y/y) basis declined to 8.5% in July, down from the 40-year high of 9.1% last month.”

However, going from 9.1 to 8.5 only required a small pull back from a temporary exaggerated pendulum swing in headline inflation rate ; it’s not surprising as this is generally volatile.

The real challenge, given the labour participation rate, unemployment, productivity, is:

How will inflation be contained as it approaches the 6 or 7percent range?

Stealth inflation has now become structural, because it has been allowed to take hold like an underground bog fire, and the flames are now on the surface and can’t be made obscure by fudging stats.

The motive behind the Central Bankers, could be debated.

What can’t be doubted by any reasonable person is that they left rates too low for too long.

So, what if in fact inflation peaked.
It’s where it gets stuck at that counts.

#16 PBrasseur on 08.13.22 at 12:50 pm

Trying to anticipate what others, the FED or anybody else is going to do in order to make investment decisions is not investing, it’s speculating.

If you don’t get that it’s time to go back reading Benjamin Graham.

#17 Scooby Snacks on 08.13.22 at 1:12 pm

Thanks for the post, Ryan. Sounds like a 5 year fixed mortgage rate will still beat 5 year variable. Thoughts?

#18 Phylis on 08.13.22 at 1:23 pm

Bmo’s weekly note guess is .50 Just reporting was i saw.

#19 Promises, promises! on 08.13.22 at 1:31 pm

“I promise you if I’m elected president, you’re going to see the single most important thing that changes America,” he said. “We’re gonna cure cancer.”

#20 TurnerNation on 08.13.22 at 1:36 pm

In Soviet Kanada house own you!

What I’m hearing this week second-hand is of the people walking away from six-figure deposits;
Of the people scrambling for financing at double digit interest rates.
Yes these are (were) the middle classes.
They will own nothing and be happpy?
(Et tu, Blackrock? )
Come and get us.

People need to realize it. This no longer is a country.
When you had to show papers pleeze to sit down with a coffee at Timmies you just know we fell to the invasion.
It’s an open air tax slave camp.

WW3 began March 2020 and wars are fought over LAND.

#21 Dragonfly58 on 08.13.22 at 1:53 pm

Wages rose by 5% ? Some households I guess.
I am retired, my pension rose 2.7%. Wife is semi retired , so her pension portion also rose by 2.7% . But her hire back contract { Health care management } is almost exactly the same as what she was making last year , pre retirement. In fact a 1 % or so decrease vs her pre retirement income. I am going by a ” hourly rate ” equivalent, the contract is only a .4 position. She is probably not renewing once this term ends in the Fall. No wonder B.C. is having trouble staffing Health Care.
Son is still landscaping , no pay increase this year or last. Pondering a move to greener pastures, or possibly an upgrade of skills.
So one house, one retiree, one well qualified professional, one laborer.
And well short of that 5% average increase. Against actual inflation we are getting hammered.

#22 Steven Rowlandson on 08.13.22 at 1:56 pm

“What’s the Fed to do?”
Impose medieval interest rates, stop manipulating markets if it is doing so and tell government to quit borrowing and pay down debt. As for real estate let them pay medieval interest rates.

#23 WTF on 08.13.22 at 2:12 pm

#3 Dandada “Sat down with an RBC wealth advisor yesterday.” He thinks 2023 is looking “very bad” for equities.

——————————————————————-
An observation from the cheap seats, Bank Wealth Advisors typically aren’t wealthy.

#24 Faron on 08.13.22 at 2:15 pm

As always, love your work Ryan. Thanks for the analysis. My personal reading of the readings is that a recession is nigh inevitable due to either inflation or increase cost of servicing household debt catches up with folks.

Also, and unrelated, fingers crossed this is the end of DJT. Won’t solve the deeper problems with US democracy, but could add a dose of reality to the right wingers spreading the Big Lie and downplaying the planned Jan 6th coup attempt. Thinly veiled forms of that rhetoric show up in these comments regularly. That is disturbing.

Actually, it is related. A broken US political system will eventually cause the primary global economic engine to falter and take away a cornerstone of global financial stability. The NYSE and NASDAQ will slowly leak value if destabilization proceeds. A 2023 rally won’t mean much in that scenario.

#25 Faron on 08.13.22 at 2:21 pm

#6 the Jaguar on 08.13.22 at 11:03 am

Check out this wind up. It brings tears to my eyes..

Gonna guess that wind-up was effective for obscuring the ball’s lacing and the pitcher’s grip for as long as possible. Good MLB batters read the pitch before it leaves the pitcher’s hand. There’s no other way to hit a ball thrown that hard over the 60′ 6″ to the plate. A big step out lowers that number even further.

#26 Diamond Dog on 08.13.22 at 2:34 pm

I agree.

A couple points, 8.5% CPI inflation is still high and lets remind, it’s a cooked number. We may see a rebound in commodity prices in oil and metals even with a recession looming. This happened in the 70’s, why not now. I believe O & G and metals have both been chronically under invested in and we will see evidence of this in the years ahead. With metals in particular, look no further than how things have functioned at the LME. (I would to expand on this at some point later on)

Secondly, a Fed rate at 3.5 – 3.75% could stay there a while until inflation meaningfully comes down. If the Fed is wrong with it’s neutral rate of 2.5 – 2.75% and the jobs market is telling us it is (although it’s a lagging indicator), 3.5 – 3.75% may not be enough. Larry Summers recently suggested that neutral is somewhere around 4. to 4.5%.

However, there is QT to factor in. How much this becomes a factor is beyond my scope but it will be a factor. Otherwise, we should see some forms of bonds freeze up at 3.5 – 3.75%. CCC’s froze at 2.75% in 2019, same should happen here. BBB’s could freeze @ 3.5 -3.75% with MBS’s in a tailspin but this remains to be seen and we could see the Fed rate at this level for…. 9 months once we get there?

The markets will have to react accordingly. At this point, I’d say a U.S. recession is relatively certain with unemployment somewhere around 6% but it remains to be seen. I think Canada will escape a recession though, due to the strength in commodities and future weakness in the U.S. dollar in 2023.

#27 Søren Angst on 08.13.22 at 2:50 pm

The Rubicon has been crossed.

S&P 500
June 16 = 3667 pts
August 12 = 4280
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?window=6M

About a 17% gain in the past 2 months.

TSX same idea:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI?window=6M

Noticing price recovery in my Threadbare Portfolio, +7.3% YTD (S&P YTD = -10.8%), divs a bit lower in July (+19.4% annualized), still who can argue with a YTD Avg Div Yield = 27.6%?

2 steps forward. 1 step back.

A giant leap in slo-mo is what I’m seeing.

——————-

l like all that you said Ryan (and agree) though I believe ‘IT’ has started.

#28 Lee on 08.13.22 at 2:52 pm

I think when discussing labour force participation, long covid is a critical point to include, especially considering the data showing that overall likelihood of developing long covid increases with every reinfection.

#29 Philco on 08.13.22 at 2:56 pm

So I know peeps that make me look poor.
They want T2 GONE!!!
All of you that support him have ROCKS for brains.
If you would like to debate how smart you are I live in Powell River.
The guys a puppet.
We can doo toe to toe. Wake up clowns.
I never use to care about politics. It matters policy maters. Let’s goe green lol then you can drive your ev and get your $12 bread.
10% inflation for 3 years is a fact. I buy a lot of stuff. I know.
I bought a $200 backhoe part from the USA.
you know what UPS charge me brokerage fee????! $70.
I foned them up and called them out. I said I JUST move $35000 in doors across that border. I use Boarderbuddy. They are rock stars. $300 broker fee. I will never ever let these scam transport companies screw me again. Use Boarderbuddy. FYI $3300 below the the couriers do the brokering and make out like criminals.
Oh and UPS says….oh sorry sir we can do $32. Lol
You are getting so screwed in this country in sooooo many ways.
Trudope could care less their broke. He is an idiot that could put a stop to this crap lower the cost of living for Kanuckle heads.
What the he’ll is the mater with peeps. Where’s the outrage you frogs in the warming water?
Wake up one day and your toast.
Jesus help me fight you pasive confused babies

#30 Dave on 08.13.22 at 3:00 pm

Where will inflation be in the fall should Russia turn off the EU taps?

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.22 at 3:01 pm

@#3 The Dandada
“Sat down with an RBC wealth advisor yesterday.”

+++
I have several family members that are bank “Wealth Advisors”.
They don’t have a clue except what the talking heads at the bank email them to spew out.

It’s a “McJob” to them.

Run in the opposite direction as fast and as far as you can.

#32 Penny Henny on 08.13.22 at 3:29 pm

#3 Dandada “Sat down with an RBC wealth advisor yesterday.” He thinks 2023 is looking “very bad” for equities.

//////////////////

Under promise and over deliver.

#33 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.22 at 3:35 pm

@#29 Philco

I never believed in reincarnation until now.

After reading a few of your posts with the spelling mistakes…..

Smoking Man?

#34 Søren Angst on 08.13.22 at 3:36 pm

About a 17% gain in the past 2 months (S&P 500).

Let me say that again:

About a 17% gain in the past 2 months (S&P 500).

THAT’S the big picture folks.

You’re all getting tangled up in small stuff that doesn’t amount to a hill of beans. If it did matter, the above WOULD NOT have happened.

————————-

I Comment again about the gain because I recall here, SO MANY TIMES, that Garth and Doug just hammered away:

– Stay vested, the markets always recover.
– Don’t pull your money out hoping to time the market recovery later.

The Market Timers missed the boat a couple of months ago. Nobody here can argue that in 2 months a 17% price gain is not a recovery. I mean, come on.

I’m starting to see the odd article where in effect the writer is saying “Hey, the market seems to be OK with persistent high inflation and rate increases.”

Meanwhile, back in BEARVILLE they’re still writing ARMAGEDDON clickbait articles ignoring the obvious:

About a 17% gain in the past 2 months (S&P 500).

Take a look at this 5 year S&P 500 price gain chart:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?window=5Y

All I see before 2022 is slow growth and a dip. A lot worse than the so-called “Bear Market” of 2022.

———————–

It’s over folks, recovery is what’s happening but everyone is just TOO DARNED BUSY LOOKING FOR THE 4 HORSEMEN.

1 of them is called NIL.

The other, SLIM, well he left town…about 2 months ago.

#35 Grunt on 08.13.22 at 3:36 pm

Because of the euro-drought and the war in the Ukraine I see food inflation all over. Over here opportunist.

Low river levels due to drought in europe is impacting electricity. Like the US SW there isn’t enough water pressure to run hydro turbines at full pressure.l. Nuclear reactors don’t have sufficient river water for cooling and generating at full capacity. Returned hot effluent to rivers already warmed by heatwave. The reduction is stunning something like 40% in both cases.

The result? More coal burning in europe for hydro. Then there’s the issue of winter home heating. Putin cut off the natural gas.

#36 Grunt on 08.13.22 at 3:42 pm

The word omitted in my post above is “Irrigation.”
Drought in the SW, MX and europe is gonna push food prices inflationary…

#37 Nonplused on 08.13.22 at 3:45 pm

Because the inflation rate is a percent change or can be though of as a velocity of increase, inflation rates peaking is only the slimmest of good news. It means the rate prices are increasing isn’t getting faster. They are still moving up at a pretty good clip and it isn’t really slowing down.

You can think of absolute prices as where your car is now, the inflation rate is how fast you are moving, and the change in the inflation rate as how hard you are stepping on the gas or the brake. All that has happened is our driver has let up on the gas. We are still heading for a brick wall at 60 mph. It is a little early to unbuckle your seat belt.

Rates will thus continue to rise on the aggressive side. It’s the only thing that makes sense if you believe interest rates affect inflation. We got a long way to go to 2%. And even then prices will still be rising.

#38 Victor Llearna on 08.13.22 at 4:01 pm

Too bad we wont see rates hit 20% That would teach the sheep that borrowed $1million+ to buy crappy houses in Toronto a lesson

#39 Ryan Lewenza on 08.13.22 at 4:18 pm

Dave “The question is when is the housing market going to bottom out?”

I would venture a guess of spring 2023. The BoC is going to hike another 1-1.5% so this should keep pushing prices lower. I then see the BoC keeping rates steady in the first half of next year before them potentially cutting rates later next year. So the combination of peaking rates early next year and the typically strong spring season is my attempt at a call for a bottom. – Ryan L

#40 Søren Angst on 08.13.22 at 4:19 pm

On the Mr. Markets RECOVERY, heck even the Big 5 Cdn Bank BOAT ANCHORS (to near every Cdn ETF) starting to haul their sorry buttocks out from their mid-July Mariana Trench:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNS:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATD%2CTSE%3ACM%2CTSE%3ARY%2CTSE%3ABMO&window=YTD

though, still woefully in the RED for the year.

And Doug’s Cdn Oil Oracle picks MUCHO in the GREEN for the year:

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ENB:TSE?comparison=TSE%3ATRP%2CTSE%3ASU%2CTSE%3APPL%2CTSE%3ACVE&window=YTD

yeah _ _ _

If this keeps up I’m switching my Blog Comments moniker back to Dolce Vita.

Not quite yet though. I’ll do that when SLAVA UKRAINI a reality.

#41 Quintilian on 08.13.22 at 4:20 pm

#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.22 at 3:01 pm
“They don’t have a clue except what the talking heads at the bank email them to spew out.”

Exactly, they have a template or matrix they follow. That is the extent of their knowledge.

When approached by them by email or the one time a year or two years when at the branch, rather than engaging them about what they want to do with my gun powder money I keep dry, I usually say:

“It’s may grandmas’ money and she wants it left in a GIC for now.”

#42 Ryan Lewenza on 08.13.22 at 4:21 pm

Dave “Where will inflation be in the fall should Russia turn off the EU taps?”

That should really only impact natural gas and European nat gas prices in particular. I don’t see that having much of an impact on North American inflation. My concern, if Putin does this, would be on the European economy and GDP. That could really weigh on GDP and possibly push Europe into a recession, which would be deflationary. – Ryan L

#43 TurnerNation on 08.13.22 at 4:22 pm

Life in Soviet Kanada. The new car lots are empty. Last year. This year. Next year.
Comrade do not be so greedy you have a car already.
As in Cuba, cobble some parts togethers, to keep your ancient chassis on the road. The “T2 Mobiles”
Oh Those new six-figure Teslas silently zipping by? Those belong to Party Members and Party Faithful.
All those Sunshine-listers. They are rewarded richly for obedience .Wag wag wag.


— Oh our elite rulers!! Papers please! (We are this close to 2019 Normal. I can just feel it!!! Hooyah.)

Germany: QR code is PERMANENT in the Former First World Countries.

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/laut-covpasscheck-karl-lauterbach-zuletzt-vor-271-tagen-geimpft-corona-li.255960
“Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach has been vaccinated four times, according to his own statements. He has communicated this several times, most recently when he announced his corona infection. When that was, neither he nor his ministry want to say when asked. A review of his digital vaccination certificates with the app CovPassCheck has now revealed that at least the last digitally recorded vaccination took place 271 days ago, i.e. in mid-November 2021. It is noted as a “booster vaccination”.”
Where does the information come from? The Minister of Health had held his digital vaccination certificate including QR code on Friday at a press conference in the cameras and was officially and extensively filmed and photographed. Many of the photos show the minister’s certificate. Like millions of other certificates, it can be legally checked with just a few clicks via CovPassCheck.

#44 Ryan Lewenza on 08.13.22 at 4:26 pm

Scobby Snacks “Thanks for the post, Ryan. Sounds like a 5 year fixed mortgage rate will still beat 5 year variable. Thoughts?”

That’s a close call right now. I was pounding the table on going fixed late last year and early this year but now I’m more neutral. I bought a pre-construction condo a few years ago and it’s slated to be completed next March. I’m considering going variable since I actually see the BoC cutting rates later next year. If correct, go variable, then when rates get cut, lock in a 5-year fixed. There’s still months before I need to make this decision but that’s current thinking. – Ryan L

#45 DON on 08.13.22 at 4:45 pm

Given the droughts across Europe and the crop failures food prices will continue to be pressured.

Given the approaching winter energy demand will increase.

Then there is Russis seeking regime change in Ukraine and the US pushing China’s buttons. Much more unstable factors that could send things in a tail spin.

Employment is good at the moment but jobs can be lost in a day if things change.

#46 DON on 08.13.22 at 4:50 pm

#21 Dragonfly58 on 08.13.22 at 1:53 pm
Wages rose by 5% ? Some households I guess.
I am retired, my pension rose 2.7%. Wife is semi retired , so her pension portion also rose by 2.7% . But her hire back contract { Health care management } is almost exactly the same as what she was making last year , pre retirement. In fact a 1 % or so decrease vs her pre retirement income. I am going by a ” hourly rate ” equivalent, the contract is only a .4 position. She is probably not renewing once this term ends in the Fall. No wonder B.C. is having trouble staffing Health Care.
Son is still landscaping , no pay increase this year or last. Pondering a move to greener pastures, or possibly an upgrade of skills.
So one house, one retiree, one well qualified professional, one laborer.
And well short of that 5% average increase. Against actual inflation we are getting hammered.

************
Ah yes the elusive wage increase of 5%…would like to meet a person that didn’t change jobs who recieved the 5% wage increase. Much like the elusive Unicorn.

#47 Søren Angst on 08.13.22 at 4:58 pm

#35 Grunt

Nat Gas shortage in Europa is exaggerated. Italia has already filled up its Peak Nat Gas reserves for this Winter to 71%. 90% end of year or earlier.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/italy-minister-sees-late-winter-crunch-if-russia-cuts-off-gas-2022-07-27/

Italia frugal * with energy usage. Italia vs. the Land of Igloo/Ark Dwellers – honestly Canada, get it together on energy usage:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab=chart&country=CAN~ITA

Italia has also signed new Nat Gas contracts with Algeria and there is the TAP pipeline that will bring new Caspian Sea Nat Gas to our shores from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan.

Also, Kazakhstan oil to the EU bypasses Putin:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/central-asia/news/kazakhstan-to-start-oil-sales-via-azeri-pipeline-to-bypass-russia/

Germany is in deep dung but they are building LNG terminals as I type at record speed. Coal for sure will see them thru Winter.

So much for the GREEN ENERGY REVOLUTION. Made clear by the War it’s all BS and decades off before it supplants Fossil Fuels.

Drought true but so far mostly affecting harvests, so far. Italia we’re OK and have Switzerland to lean on if we need more water for hydro (12.6%). Electricity here mostly Nat Gas (38.2% natural gas, 13% coal, 8.4% oil).

——————-

EU will be fine next year. This year, nip and tuck but not nearly as bad as the MSM portrays.

In the meantime Putin cutting off his won nose to spite the EU’s face and in effect killing off his State Revenues (45% of their Federal Budget). Could not happen to a better Despot I say, pity the Russian people will be the ones to suffer.

* Italia lowest energy per capita of the G7. I don’t know what more she can do in energy savings. I guess I’ll find out this Winter.

#48 Sail Away on 08.13.22 at 5:11 pm

#38 Victor Llearna on 08.13.22 at 4:01 pm

Too bad we wont see rates hit 20% That would teach the sheep that borrowed $1million+ to buy crappy houses in Toronto a lesson

———

Those are not lessons anybody should have to learn- youth is for making small mistakes and learning incrementally, not demolishing one’s entire financial future in one fell swoop.

People who did this thought, based on what they knew, they were making a good choice. Lack of knowledge, lack of good advice, perhaps lack of prudence… but this is too big an error. They have my sympathy.

#49 Doing my Part on 08.13.22 at 5:17 pm

Philco for Prime Minister!

#50 canuck on 08.13.22 at 5:42 pm

Stagflation will be the buzzword in 2023. Inflation will remain at current levels while unemployment rates have no where to go but up.

Mock me and throw your beer cans at me but don’t get mad at my shit eatin’ grin next year when Garth is blogging about dealing with it.

#51 Mike on 08.13.22 at 5:53 pm

“needs to be noted that some of the decline in the unemployment rate is due to a drop in the participation rate rather THAN strictly due to an increase in employment. ” SOME ASSEMBLY REQUIRED, BATTERIES NOT INCLUDED. NOT FOR SALE IN CANADA. COSTA RICA UKRAINE.

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.22 at 6:13 pm

@#50 Canuck
“Stagflation will be the buzzword …”

+++

I made a prediction of a Japanese style stagflation ( real estate, stock market and Canuck buck… in the toilet) a year or so ago for the next few years…..

I still have the beer can welts.

#53 Phylis on 08.13.22 at 6:30 pm

#33 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.22 at 3:35 pm
@#29 Philco

I never believed in reincarnation until now.

After reading a few of your posts with the spelling mistakes…..

Smoking Man?
Xxxxxxx
I can’t hear the JD talking just yet, but give it time.

#54 Shawn on 08.13.22 at 7:04 pm

The Canada Pension Plan is a good although limited pension

#96 Kurt on 08.13.22 at 1:19 pm
Hi Sinan,

Correct me if I am wrong: Canadian Government is collecting about $3k a year from me and my employer for about 40 years (assuming you have started at 25, and retired at 65), and paying about $14k for about 20 years (assuming life expectancy if 85).
Does this math make sense?

Thanks,
Kurt

*********************************
Well of course you are wrong. 40 years ago the maximum CPP payment was nowhere close to $3,000.

As Linda said yesterday, CPP i a Defined Benefit pension.

It has a great investment track record and relatively low management fees. Other than the low expenses all the money is ear-marked for pension payments.

Like ALL DB plans it has some big cross subsidies but not as big as some. There is no silly magic number formula. Many government pensions are based on highest 5 year wages and cross subsidize rising start executives at the expense of the rank and file. The reduction at 60 is an actuarily fair number.

If you die early of course you collect less than you paid in. Just like every DB plan. Dead people don’t need money and 95 year olds do. This feature is what makes DB contributions affordable.

It’s not without some faults but is is a good basic pension. It’s a godsend for many people who don’t have work pensions and who did not invest on their own. (Probably 40% of the population and rising)

If you think its unfair then simply live to 100 and you will get more than your share.

And thanks Linda and Dr V for responses yesterday to my questions.

#55 Flop… on 08.13.22 at 7:14 pm

#5 IHCTD9 on 08.13.22 at 10:29 am
My condolences Flop. I’m glad you guys were able to bury the hatchet.

///////////////////////////////

Thanks Trackie.

I’d also like to thank all the people who showed some support yesterday too.

I think from memory of one of this blogs survey’s I was close to the average age of readers, so I’m sure a fair percentage have gone through what I’m dealing with right now.

It was an imperfect relationship, as noted by a few of you, mainly due to my refusal to sugarcoat my life challenges, but he still was my Dad and our last words have been spoken.

I will work through my grief in time, my main challenge at the moment will be to find the courage to contact my Mum and talk to her for the first time in two decades.

Just like my last conversation with my Dad, it will be awkward and nerve wracking, but she’s just lost her best friend and life partner, her grieving process will be hampered by their decision to sell their house and retire in warmer climes with no support system in place.

Not wanting her to suffer additionally from loneliness is my main motivation to pick up the phone and break the ice.

But hey, we’ve got a blog to run here, onwards, upwards, if Thor Turner and the team continue through thick and thin, then I can wipe away the tears and keep trying to contribute.

Trackie,I actually sent you an inferior version of this report a couple of weeks ago, but I think you were having a break.

This is a nicer version with better fonts and pictures of Canada’s Best Small Cities of 2022.

Top 25.

Much maligned Victoria and Kelowna came in at 1-2.

The reason I tried to get your attention was Thunder Bay came in at 21 and healthcare was a feature as you age.

Since you warned me off New Brunswick, St Catharines was the one I looked at the hardest.

This was as well put together report as I’ve ever seen on the subject.

https://www.bestcities.org/rankings/canadas-best-small-cities/

What else can I contribute?

I saw a tweet on rental prices across Canada, and went to the source, and this article has some good updates and charts for all corners of this fair land.

The provincial overview and 4th chart down was probably a good one to see what renters are up against.

https://rentals.ca/national-rent-report

Peace…

M48BC

#56 Shawn on 08.13.22 at 7:18 pm

Why the lower labour participation rate?

1. Demographics of course. There are hugely more people over 65 even over 80 than in previous decades. My Dad at 91 still working by choice but he is the rare exception. Doers in life have a hard time to stop doing.

2. Generous pensions actually. Heard on the radio today that its hard to get retired nurses to come back as they want better wages to do so. Ironically, their generous DB pensions make it unnecessary for them to work especially combined with CPP and OAS and these are the same people that with good wages and usually married have investments as well. Not saying this is unfair. But it is a fact that those on government DB pensions especially where both spouses had good incomes have zero financial need to work past 65 or even 60.

We live in a multi-tier society. Many older people have no need to work and money to travel and blow. Of course we also have a multi tier in how much people contributed to society. Fact is retired professionals and trades people and business people usually contributed more and now they reap the rewards and they are not going back to the labour force.

#57 Ohm on 08.13.22 at 7:36 pm

#12 Philco

Good on you! I agree with your views.

Little (not so secret) claim is that Canada has always absorbed much more carbon then it distributed due to our vast forest and little population.

T2 is a liar, his agenda is misleading and yet a certain few vote for this????

We could be the greatest country on this planet but we allow a certain few to dictate to us on how to live in this incredibly expensive which should be the least expensive country on this planet. Just baffling!!!

#58 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.13.22 at 7:50 pm

#49 Doing my Part on 08.13.22 at 5:17 pm
Philco for Prime Minister!
—————
Sure.
And Furz for Finance Minister

#59 THE DANDADA on 08.13.22 at 7:59 pm

#23 WTF on 08.13.22 at 2:12 pm
#31 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.22 at 3:01 pm
#32 Penny Henny on 08.13.22 at 3:29 pm
————————————-

I got those same vibes after 3 minutes into the conversation.

Was quite disappointed to be honest.

You would think a top tier Candian bank with access to a few trillion bucks could do ALOT better.

But I guess quantity over quality speaks volumes.

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.22 at 8:00 pm

@#41 Quintillian
““It’s may grandmas’ money and she wants it left in a GIC for now.”

+++
Yep.
Occasionally I have to actually deposit a company cheque into my other business account and I’ll get some kid behind the counter trying to “upsell me” into speaking with one of their financial advisors.
“Save the sales pitch kid. This money in my business account is chicken feed compared to what I have invested”……
Usually works.

#61 kommykim on 08.13.22 at 8:45 pm

RE: #23 WTF on 08.13.22 at 2:12 pm
#3 Dandada “Sat down with an RBC wealth advisor yesterday.” He thinks 2023 is looking “very bad” for equities.
——————————————————————-
An observation from the cheap seats, Bank Wealth Advisors typically aren’t wealthy.

=======================================

Back in the day, before I had a trading account, I was in at the TD wanting to renew a GIC for 1 year. They tried really hard to push an equities mutual fund… It was 2007. A year later after the crash I went in and cashed in the GIC. This time they tried just as hard NOT to sell me the equity mutual fund. I didn’t listen that time either.

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.22 at 9:06 pm

@#58 Ponzies Political Pals
“And Furz for Finance Minister”

++++
Sorry Ponze
The Liberals already have a Furz as Finance Minister.

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.13.22 at 9:14 pm

#60 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.13.22 at 8:00 pm
@#41 Quintillian
““It’s may grandmas’ money and she wants it left in a GIC for now.”

+++
Yep.
Occasionally I have to actually deposit a company cheque into my other business account and I’ll get some kid behind the counter trying to “upsell me” into speaking with one of their financial advisors.
“Save the sales pitch kid. This money in my business account is chicken feed compared to what I have invested”……
Usually works.
——————–
You have an issue with a “kid” just doing their job.
And having to put up with shits like you for minimum wages.
Yeah, here comes the mighty FURZ.
He practically owns the bank.
Get ready to kiss his ass.

#64 Blobby on 08.13.22 at 9:14 pm

“ Philco for Prime Minister!”

.. if I wanted to vote for someone who was as clueless as that, I’d vote for pee pee.

#65 Charity on 08.13.22 at 9:32 pm

33 fartz 53 Penney
If it is Smoking Man reincarnated we will hear all about nectonite. Good times and good reads.

#66 Russ on 08.13.22 at 9:36 pm

Philco on 08.13.22 at 2:56 pm

So I know peeps that make me look poor.
They want T2 GONE!!!

… I buy a lot of stuff. I know.
I bought a $200 backhoe part from the USA.
you know what UPS charge me brokerage fee????! $70.
I foned them up and called them out. I said I JUST move $35000 in doors across that border. I use Boarderbuddy. They are rock stars. $300 broker fee. I will never ever let these scam transport companies screw me again. Use Boarderbuddy. FYI $3300 below the the couriers do the brokering and make out like criminals.
Oh and UPS says….oh sorry sir we can do $32. Lol

===============================

You may not need to do this to save money. It will be good to do just on principle occasionally to stop some gouging.

https://www.theartofdoingstuff.com/how-to-avoid-broker-fees-just-in-time-for-online-xmas-shopping/

Cheers, R

#67 Summertime on 08.13.22 at 9:50 pm

A bet that the rates can be capped at 3-4 % is a very dangerous one.

This will most certainly not drive inflation down significantly, it will stay elevated and strongly negative for a long time.

With high inflation and lagging wages we will see much more of ‘quiet quitting’ and ‘don’t pay the bills’ as people lose every incentive to work without reward in an extremely expensive world.

House, kids, retirement, even essentials are becoming a pipe dream and the expectations that somebody will pursue an ‘engaging career’, work their behind off in the old fashioned dedicated professional work-ethic way is becoming more and more delusional.

With falling productivity and consumption due to inflation what would be the way to ‘grow’ the economy in an already resource restricted world?

The only way would be to accept much lower standard of living, kill the inflation with much higher rates and force revert the asset prices to the historical trends, i.e.
significant dive in stock markets and total crash of housing market – 70 % decline as a minimum in GTA/Vancouver in order to restore even partially the engaged incentive to work.

The alternative would be to continue with the inflation spiral that at some point will lead to explosion of unrest and violence as standard of living plunges further while reporting some inflation driven fake ‘nominal growth’ instead of the real decline.

More and more experts seem certain that this latest option is the most likely outcome and that should worry big time the general public.

#68 Shawn on 08.13.22 at 10:00 pm

Excuses not to do your part for carbon reduction.

A really dumb excuse is that Canada is only 4 percent or whatever of world human carbon emissions. It’s an excuse not worthy of a response.

Then there is the excuse that China is not curbing carbon. So you will pee in the pool until you are sure no one else is.

But the dumbest excuse of all must be that Canada has all theses trees. See ohm at 57. Yeah the trees were here before us. It’s not “Canada” that emits carbon. It’s Canadians.

Do your part. Or st least pay your carbon tax willingly if you refuse to make an effort.

#69 Shawn on 08.13.22 at 10:14 pm

Excuses not to do anything about reducing carbon and to complain about the carbon tax that make more sense are:

Arguments that carbon is not causing climate change. That is potentially valid although the consensus has moved on and that argument has been lost.

Another valid point is that paying a carbon tax that is largely rebated rather than used to scrub carbon out of smoke stacks is not optimal. Not a great argument since the tax is still some incentive to curtail but is a valid argument.

#70 Bullish bear on 08.13.22 at 11:06 pm

It’s conservative and aggressive ( garp) to buy companies that pay solid dividends (5%+) show growth potential through margin expansion ( like REITS who continue to show high occupancy throughout the Covid period) and easily cover the dividend with low payout ratio and maintaining low average p/e multiples.

These companies can only attract higher market interest if recession hits in ‘22 and should continue to increase in value in the ‘23 period when rates inevitably come down . Meanwhile, I think it’s safe to be profitable while exercising caution but collecting reasonable dividends regardless of rate speculation. I also think that stocks will attract a larger share of the available investment dollars due to real estate becoming uninvestable for the next several years. Personally I’m all in , but in cautiously.

#71 Joe Lalonde on 08.14.22 at 3:04 am

Garth,
Canada’s Labour Laws are quite comprehensive and covers any person who works here.
Many contracts and side deals are illegal but just don’t report it and it’s fine…
That being said, the last couple of years here, many companies including hospitals have taken upon themselves to impose government mandates.
That is illegal.
The banks even froze certain people accounts and that too was illegal.

We currently have a Wild West show of illegal activities by employers.
Is it any wonder no one wants to work?

#72 Crankyponzi on 08.14.22 at 9:29 am

#63 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.13.22 at 9:14 pm

You have an issue with a “kid” just doing their job.
And having to put up with shits like you for minimum wages.
Yeah, here comes the mighty FURZ.
He practically owns the bank.
Get ready to kiss his ass.

=============================

Dearie me, so churlish.

Well to cheer you up since you like these ranking-type lists, here’s one for you:

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/worst-in-the-world-here-are-all-the-rankings-in-which-canada-is-now-last

#73 Sail Away on 08.14.22 at 9:38 am

“What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.”

— Warren Buffett

#74 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.14.22 at 9:50 am

@#Ponzies Perjoratives

Geez Ponze.
Hitting the sauce last night?
Grumpy McGrumpster could take lessons from you.
( “In this corner we have the Austrian Accountant Assassin”)
I make a comment about some early 20 something kid trying to spin me a cheesy sales pitch after I’ve been standing in line for 10 minutes TO GIVE THEM MY MONEY. A cheesy sales pitch that he is required to say to each and every customer with X amount of cash in their account.
It’s also no ones business WHY I have X amount of cash in my account and after living and working ( longer than the runny nosed brat behind the counter has been alive) for many years …..I dont need…. or more importantly want a cheesy sales pitch.

And you go all snark.
Let me guess. One of the family members a bank teller?

I relegate those unwanted, unnecessary, undeserved sales pitches to the “Ignore bin” just like the telephone sales pitches or surveys I get while at work or while eating dinner.
Just like The Credit Card Guy in the Dept store that tries to reel you in with “So howyadointoday?”.
Sorry. Not interested…. and if I remain polite the sales pitch keeps on going…and going annnnd going.
Best to stop that train in its tracks and move on to another sucker than waste your time with me.
And.
Judging from my personal and work experiences with people of Germanic heritage AND your last acidic comments I’d say you fall into the same realm as Furz when it comes to abrupt conversation crushing comments.
Ja?.

#75 Penny Henny on 08.14.22 at 9:52 am

#55 Flop… on 08.13.22 at 7:14 pm

This is a nicer version with better fonts and pictures of Canada’s Best Small Cities of 2022.

Top 25.

Much maligned Victoria and Kelowna came in at 1-2.

The reason I tried to get your attention was Thunder Bay came in at 21 and healthcare was a feature as you age.

Since you warned me off New Brunswick, St Catharines was the one I looked at the hardest.

/////////////////

Two words. Welland.

It’s all Welland good.

#76 Penny Henny on 08.14.22 at 9:57 am

I bought a pre-construction condo a few years ago and it’s slated to be completed next March. I’m considering going variable since I actually see the BoC cutting rates later next year. If correct, go variable, then when rates get cut, lock in a 5-year fixed. There’s still months before I need to make this decision but that’s current thinking. – Ryan L

/////////////

That sounds like a sound investment.

#77 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.14.22 at 10:00 am

@#66 Russ

Excellent link to avoid UPS broker fees.
Thanks.

#78 Dharma Bum on 08.14.22 at 11:12 am

#71 Joe Lalonde

We currently have a Wild West show of illegal activities by employers.
Is it any wonder no one wants to work?
———————————————————————————————————-

Most jobs are hell.

Jobs are a necessary evil for survival. Just a means to get enough money to put a roof over your head and food in your belly. Wheel spinning subsistence. Very few people have jobs that they enjoy (i.e., that they find fulfilling and meaningful). They work because they have no choice.

The best depiction I’ve seen of this phenomenon, since the 1999 Mike Judge movie “Office Space”, is the new show currently airing on Apple TV called “Severance”.

Employees undergo a surgical procedure to separate their work life consciousness from their real life consciousness.
When they are at work, they have zero memory of who they are or what their life is outside of work. When they are off work, they have zero memory of anything they do on the job.

Brilliant. Wish I coulda had that!

Lucky for me, I got out in time to save my soul.

Check out “Severance”.

#79 Wrk.dover on 08.14.22 at 11:36 am

Condolences to you Flop.

Time after time, you post proof that urban centers have priced out disposable income volume.

Non Plus or Furz nailed it with a posting about the pointlessness of getting the red seal ticket and working for the man yesterday or Friday.

My last Ontario address was St. Cats. The proximity to Niagara on the Take, gives you license to add 50% to your labour to work in the carriage trade housing market there.

It is a low rise sprawl city that had its hay day, when GM, Hayes Dana, Columbus MacKinnon et al were paying serious coin. Then came Nafta. Just another must hustle to stay afloat rat race locality now.

Keep in mind, the Homer Bridge, under the Garden City Skyway, carried the QEW only sixty years ago. Busiest highway in Canada, on a two lane draw bridge, with traffic lights at intersections beyond, all the way to Stoney Creek at the time.

Things get worse, not better, unless you consider population growth as progress.

#80 Dr V on 08.14.22 at 11:47 am

68 Shawn

“Excuses not to do your part for carbon reduction.”
————————————————————-

But what is our “part”, or Canada’s “part”?

Soren loves to highlight Italy’s much smaller per capita footprint than Canada’s. Well duh. Canada is colder, much larger, has less people, and specializes in resource extraction. Our role in supplying others with these resources is often labelled as Canada’s fault.

And individually, many think that EVs will be a huge positive impact. Philco supplied a link, and even if you can argue those points, you can discuss it with Dr. Suzuki.

To really make a difference, we have to eliminate, reduce and re-think everything we eat, consume, drive, live and work in, and re-assess all our activities.

#81 Russ on 08.14.22 at 1:10 pm

Here’s another irrelevant energy use comparison:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-energy-use?tab=chart&country=CAN~ITA~SWE~NLD~NOR~QAT

Slow summer days eh.

Cheers, R

#82 Gravy Train on 08.14.22 at 2:00 pm

#78 Dharma Bum on 08.14.22 at 11:12 am
Most jobs are hell. Jobs are a necessary evil for survival. Just a means to get enough money to put a roof over your head and food in your belly. Wheel-spinning subsistence. Very few people have jobs that they enjoy (i.e., that they find fulfilling and meaningful). They work because they have no choice.[…]

But isn’t Right Livelihood one of the steps of the Noble Eightfold Path? Never mind: I mistakenly assumed that you’re a Buddhist (as your handle is ‘Dharma Bum’).

#83 DON on 08.14.22 at 2:09 pm

#80 Dr V on 08.14.22 at 11:47 am
68 Shawn

“Excuses not to do your part for carbon reduction.”
————————————————————-

But what is our “part”, or Canada’s “part”?

Soren loves to highlight Italy’s much smaller per capita footprint than Canada’s. Well duh. Canada is colder, much larger, has less people, and specializes in resource extraction. Our role in supplying others with these resources is often labelled as Canada’s fault.

And individually, many think that EVs will be a huge positive impact. Philco supplied a link, and even if you can argue those points, you can discuss it with Dr. Suzuki.

To really make a difference, we have to eliminate, reduce and re-think everything we eat, consume, drive, live and work in, and re-assess all our activities.

……………

Agreed we need to re-asses and change what we can before we HAVE to. Why not have local walkable sustainable communities. Allowing people to work from home in the smaller communities helps the tax base allowing for more service and less congestion in the big cities. Back to the farms and local sustainability. More likely better quality ans more accountability. Globalization is good for somethings but not our basic needs. Take a thoughtful approach to the analysis.

The severe droughts in Europe are an eye opener in a modern context. Nature will deal with human idiocracy.

#84 Realist on 08.14.22 at 2:46 pm

@ Shawn: Why must we reduce our carbon footprint, while Trudeau and Drake fly around in private jets?

#85 Faron on 08.14.22 at 3:15 pm

#80 Dr V on 08.14.22 at 11:47 am
68 Shawn

“Excuses not to do your part for carbon reduction.”
————————————————————-

Philco supplied a link

The linked article from Philco was utterly useless for accuracy and relevance. Typical dredge of the state of play 40 years ago. It also relied heavily upon the false narrative that it all needs to happen at once and if that can’t be done, then do nothing. This is a prime reason much less progress has been made and is utterly foolish. All of those tropes are conjured by O+G players PR depts to get us where we are today which is screwed.

#86 Philco on 08.14.22 at 3:32 pm

Money has no meaning in a socialistic banana republic.
Garth you think all good. It ain’t.
We got one foot an a banana peal and one in the ditch.
Debt through the roof another call from my neighbour’s on a break in thanks to T2 buying a hotel near by and putting up the crackers.
Great plan idiot

#87 dennis on 08.14.22 at 3:43 pm

Post #68…Shawn, Yes we must rethink our carbon foot print and now that I have thought, I have done all things possible to reduce my carbon foot print especially doing all things possible to make my house energy efficient.

Now then, I can not control how big corporate entities go to China, India, Malaysa, etc and do business with those countries that have no pollution controls and spewing out tons and tons of pollutants. That is why the large global companies are there to make the most money possible and caring less about the environment. I also can not control how much of our products are designed for failure and thus built cheap and keeping capitalism alive. How that carbon foot print does not exist in their morally corrupt brains because profit is their god.

I can not control Trudeau and his carbon tax alias tax grab and not really really doing anything to reduce pollution. Wanna buy/swap some environmental credits and thus perpetuating no pollution control efficiencies?

#88 Albernathley on 08.14.22 at 4:36 pm

Stop worrying about the short term situations, look at the 100 year chart for the spy and the… 50 year or so i think nasdaq, chart for the nasdaq, macrotrend website, theyre inflation weighted. Time is your greatest friend, also remember if youre trying to time things theres a high chance youll screw yourself AND END UP WITH A TAX BILL EVEN IF YOURE DOWN

#89 Dr V on 08.14.22 at 6:01 pm

85 Faron

“The linked article from Philco was utterly useless for accuracy and relevance. Typical dredge of the state of play 40 years ago……. All of those tropes are conjured by O+G players PR depts to get us where we are today which is screwed.”
————————————————

Hi Faron. I think the article highlighted some of the naivete regarding EVs though. Roughly half a vehicles carbon footprint is manufacturing. Then there is the issue of electric power generation and batteries.

In Dr Suzuki’s column regarding his cross county EV he notes the real issue is private vehicle ownership, which he feels must be banned in order to have any real impact.

It is just so engrained in our lives. to change it, to really reduce it, I feel the economic and social effort will be akin to a world war lasting decades.

#90 neo on 08.14.22 at 6:07 pm

FYI, in the US inflation has never crossed the 5% threshold and gone below that number without The Fed funds rate exceeding CPI. Might want to mix that into your analysis.

#91 chalkie on 08.15.22 at 7:13 am

Ryan, you are smack on the money. We won’t see the 80’s and 90’s for high mortgage rates that those years produced, but for the millennials, todays lessons will take them down memory lane for their kids and perhaps even their grandkids.
The bank employees have been trained to tell you that a variable mortgage always wins, Not so this time around. Be careful, Under specific circumstances a lender can demand repayment even if your loan service is current.
With todays rates owning a variable mortgage and the line of credit on your home used for investment, is a recipe for failure over the next few years. Learn to buy what you need and not what you want, life is so much more pleasant and relaxed this way.

#92 Brian on 08.15.22 at 8:03 am

Something I don’t think the public is grasping is we had a month of 0% inflation which dropped the CPI a few points. If we continued non stop having 0% inflation it would take until Late 2023 to get the CPI back down to 2%. So rather the Feds being laser focused will somehow allow another year to correct or they need to do something more