Self-inflicted

I remember the call. It was early June. They were both on the phone telling me they couldn’t stand to lose any more money because markets were falling.

But, I said, if you do nothing you lose nothing. It’s only by selling off things when they’re low, and going to cash, that you turn a paper loss into a real one. Why would you do that?

Because, they said, things are terrible. They’re going to get worse. We feel it. This is just the start of a very long and bad time.

There was yelling and screaming in the background.

Where are you? I asked.

Sitting at the edge of a playground, they said – where their granddaughter was frolicking with her little friends.

Are you telling me your grandkid is about to grow up in some kind of hell?, I asked. Is that what you believe?

Of course not. They didn’t think it for a minute. Her young life was full of promise and a long road ahead. But they were unable to see the disconnect between their visceral investment fear of loss and the optimism they felt for times to come.

Well, they cashed out. Making matters worse, all the investments were registered – so they couldn’t even claim a loss to use against future gains. Just a bunch of money piddled away for nothing. Funds they could never earn back, both being retired. Lost completely were my words about corrections being normal and healthy, the economy being resilient and the fact that 100% of the time in the past markets and assets have recovered their temporarily-lost value.

Here we are. In case you missed it the S&P500, which is a great barometer of the financial world in general, gained a whack more on Wednesday. Since hitting a bottom about the time these poor grandparents were freaking, the index has gained 14% – or twice what it does in a decent year. The bear market (20%+ decline) is kaput, apparently, at least in the minds of investors who have bene loading up on cheap stuff with both hands.

Why would this occur? We still have war, Putin, China Covid, supply chain mess, energy issues, Harry Styles and Trump. The world is pickled in debt. There’s blood in Bunnypatch. Interest rates and inflation are still scaring the kids.

It’s because financial markets are forward-looking. These days they see a positive outcome to where we are now. The latest impetus for a smile came from Wednesday’s key US inflation data. After rocketing ahead to more than 9%, the cost of living headline number actually fell. At 8.5% that might not seem like a big deal, but it is. Together with a decline in commodity prices and other salient data points, it suggests inflation may have peaked.

The immediate implications are that central banks can throttle back a bit on coming interest rate increases. It’s now anticipated both the Fed and our guys in Ottawa will increase their benchmarks by just half a point next month, not 75 beeps. Thereafter we could see two more bumpettes of twenty-five points, and then a pause.

Meanwhile, look at the latest jobs numbers. Historic.

Employment in the US went up another 530,000 last month and the jobless rate crashed to a 50-year low. This is called ‘full employment’, wherein anybody who wants to work can find a job. There are actually way more openings now than applicants, which is why wages are increasing. In Canada we shed 30,000 positions, but the labour force contracted by the same amount – suggesting the Great Resignation continues as people would rather stay in their jammies petting their cats than go back to work. We also have a record number of job vacancies.

But wait, I hear the peasants below decks cry, aren’t we in recession?

Technically the economy has contracted – slightly – for two quarters. But a recessions won’t amount to anything when employment is robust, corporate profits are sustained and we’re in the middle of a recovery period after an historic (pandemic) event. All that just makes sense. And Mr. Market seems to believe the future looks inspiring. Stocks up. Bond yields down. Portfolios plumping.

And what of housing? Will an inflation peak plus an end to interest rate tightening bring sales and prices back?

Nope. Not without absolute mortgage rate reductions. Swollen monthly payments with home loans in the 5% range have wiped away the benefit of lower asking prices for most buyers. The CBs will still be adding to the cost of money in 2022, merely at a slower pace and with a less extreme outcome.

Price reductions will be more in evidence next month and beyond. Sale values will continue to fall. Markets not yet impacted soon will be. Cash buyers will be the big beneficiaries, as finance deals continue to fall apart all over everywhere.

We told you financial assets would lead this recovery. We told you housing would continue to bleed. Yes, expect more volatility. But there will be no dark future, save the one you bring upon yourself.

About the picture: “I started reading your blog back in 2015,” writes Pierre, “about the same time I moved to Toronto. As an East Coaster I’ve always found that prices in the 6ix were just ridiculous, so thank you for sharing a daily dose of reality to help me avoid making a purchase in this market. During our latest visit out East we stopped in Lunenburg and took a picture of our dog Arthur with your Wee-Bank-by-the-Sea. Feel free to use for your blog if you’d like.”

131 comments ↓

#1 JacqueShellacque on 08.10.22 at 3:50 pm

“Funds they could never earn back, both being retired”

Isn’t that kinda the point, Garth? ‘Funds they can never earn back’, meaning they couldn’t go back to work and replace what may be lost. Path dependence matters: using market aggregate return figures assumes a timeless world, where one gets a small slice of every possible outcome at once. But an investment balance is accumulated through time, which includes dips, the timing of which will greatly influence the end amount.

#2 The Woosh on 08.10.22 at 3:50 pm

The immediate implications are that central banks can throttle back a bit on coming interest rate increases. It’s now anticipated both the Fed and our guys in Ottawa will increase their benchmarks by just half a point next month, not 75 beeps. Thereafter we could see two more bumpettes of twenty-five points, and then a pause.

Meanwhile, look at the latest jobs numbers. Historic.

————————————————

So, inflation may have peaked and the unemployment rate is at a record low. And you think that they’ll cool off on rate hikes? I would think that the Fed and BofC would want the unemployment rate to start going back up before reducing rate hikes to .5 or .25 per hike. Wouldn’t they still want another .75 or a full 1 percent hike just to be safe?

#3 Dave on 08.10.22 at 3:50 pm

If Putin turns off the taps to EU….doesn’t that change everything. Inflation to the moon?

#4 Retired in Kelowna on 08.10.22 at 3:57 pm

Thanks Garth. I came across a statement in my 20’s regarding Investing that sticks with me to this day in my 60’s.
No Panic- No Sell, No Sell- No loss. I’ve stuck by this for four Decades regarding my Investments and has worked out very well.

#5 CanadianOne on 08.10.22 at 3:59 pm

Happy Dog days of summer Garth!

Love getting insights from your posts. Keep up the good work.

Thanks.

#6 NoOneOfConsequence on 08.10.22 at 4:03 pm

I am glad you advise people to remain calm and not to act from emotion.

But I think it’s safe to say there is an awful lot of strife across the world right now.

It’s difficult to understand and believe one authoritative person over another. Everyone seems so much more intelligent than I.

What does disaster preparedness look like in your eyes?

#7 Søren Angst on 08.10.22 at 4:09 pm

Feeling it too that this is the turning point Garth for Mr. Market.

Twitter seems to agree but not quite there yet.

Cautious optimism:

https://twitter.com/ParikPatelCFA/status/1557351312735576066

https://twitter.com/dougboneparth/status/1557352477175042049

——–

PS:

Elon clearly knows he is going to be facing Delaware Court of Chancery HANGING JUDGE Kathaleen McCormick in October and is getting ready for the money he’s going to have to fork over to Twitter:

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1557412041035505667

See how many more shares he’s going to sell. That will tell how much his lawyers think he’s going to have to settle for.

$7B so far.

Hope Kathaleen puts a bite on Elon’s butt that will take him 10 years to shake.

#8 TurnerNation on 08.10.22 at 4:10 pm

Bam and here it is. The Public Private Partnerships. Man we are like sheep, being led through one man-made crisis after another. BBB right?

.Ontario health minister won’t rule out privatization as option to help ER crisis (cbc.ca)

—- Gee if only we’d known. The trajectory was clear. Why I said that a “New System” was unleashed March 2020. From October 2020:

#131 TurnerNation on 10.14.20 at 8:59 am
*What’s really going on with the Alberta health care layoffs?
If you read it says Outsourcing.
This is the Globalist’s plan: Public-Private partnerships.
Their long game. Translation: handing out juicy contracts to friends of The Party.
This is the game is played lads. Learn it.

>>> Now ask yourself, is this change going to help things or hurt things?

.Doug Ford’s new law will give new powers to Toronto and Ottawa mayors (thestar.com)

————–
How’s that lineup at the US border these days? Get seen. Betcha glad we pay these high taxes.

.Hospital in southwestern Ontario to temporarily close ER once again due to ongoing staff shortages (theglobeandmail.com)

.Staff shortage forces closure of another Vancouver Island health-care centre (vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca)

#9 Irish Stew on 08.10.22 at 4:14 pm

Trying to sell my mother’s estate property.
Hasn’t gone well.
The market is dead.

#10 Nickleback on 08.10.22 at 4:15 pm

Somebody save me!
My million dollar home
Going down to zero
Why did I leave Toronto
To buy a trap in Cornwall?

#11 Jim on 08.10.22 at 4:16 pm

Garth, I still say that Canada’s CB will front load the next hike with another 75BP and throttle back at the next meeting. The reason I say this is because Canadian consumers need an 0.80 dollar and in order to maintain that we need to be one step ahead of the US Fed.

#12 Michael on 08.10.22 at 4:16 pm

I will never understand why people invest with a pro money manager and then REFUSE THEIR ADVICE! What is the pro being paid for other than to use their professional judgement in your favour? Why would you second guess them? Just shove your money under the mattress and save the management fee folks! Oy!

#13 Roial1 on 08.10.22 at 4:18 pm

Of the 30,000 who left the job market, how many where reaching 65 and joyfully adding to the pensioned “elite”?

#14 Squire on 08.10.22 at 4:19 pm

#10 Nickleback on 08.10.22 at 4:15 pm
Somebody save me!
My million dollar home
Going down to zero
Why did I leave Toronto
To buy a trap in Cornwall?
—-‐————————
This is probably sarcasm but if not, why did you…

#15 Leftover on 08.10.22 at 4:23 pm

YVR Saretsky has a good word for housing – illiquid. That’s what we see around our hood, February prices that attract no bids, or at least no bids that February mindsets will accept. The other disconnect is that banks won’t loan anymore against those valuations. Illiquid, that’s a good one.

Liquidity will reemerge once sellers realize that a 25% discount from the peak is actually a good deal, and will be for a couple of years.

#16 Grunt on 08.10.22 at 4:26 pm

Think you TI folk are on the ball Garth. I’ve sat tight. Even with my whimsical work Sunlife DCP.

David Rosenbergs still calling R. Seems to fear 53% VRM on falling RE prices and disposable income.

Harry Styles. Garth if it wasn’t for you I wouldn’t even know who the bloke is. I had to look him up. At first I thought american. He looks like a (young) Kevin Bacon redux. I can only think the mrs is watching way too much brit box… him and Father Brown eh?

#17 Summertime on 08.10.22 at 4:26 pm

The inflation has peaked as far as you don’t eat, drive, rent or use any services. Otherwise it is close to 20 %.

The central bankers will keep increasing the rates until labour market breaks.

Otherwise we will get incontrollable/runaway inflation.

And they know it pretty well.

Stock market does not matter in this game. The bond market is much much larger and more important.

#18 Leftover on 08.10.22 at 4:28 pm

#10 Nickleback on 08.10.22 at 4:15 pm

Goodness, a poet in our midst.

Welcome!

#19 Editrix on 08.10.22 at 4:28 pm

On July 13, a semi in my Toronto neighbourhood, which had been on the market for a couple of weeks, was asking $1,200,000. By the 26th, it was $1,100,000 and today it is $925,000.

I’ll buy it when it hits $650K and make it a rental until one of my kids needs it.

#20 Domino on 08.10.22 at 4:30 pm

Good advice and bad advice at the same time.
The most important number in investing in the market is time .
Retired , means far less time.
It is possible for a market to take 5-10 yrs to get back to its high … for sure.
Thus if someone is , let say 70. Has 1.5m in assets I would suggest that yes, cash it in , put in laddered gic or similar and you will have on top of ccp and osa at least 100k a year for the next 15 yrs, more if you don’t give any to the brats. At which time you can if you want do a reverse mortgage.

#21 Reality Check on 08.10.22 at 4:35 pm

6 NoOneOfConsequence

But I think it’s safe to say there is an awful lot of strife across the world right now.

It’s difficult to understand and believe one authoritative person over another. Everyone seems so much more intelligent than I.

What does disaster preparedness look like in your eyes?
———————

S*it happens and the world is always “about to end”. Before Putin’s invasion and inflation, there was covid, lockdowns and the threat of deflation. And when the war/inflation are gone there will be some other things to worry about. And the world will muddle on, people will keep buying things and the economy will expand. And up the market will go, climbing the proverbial “wall of worry”.

Always has, and the massively overwhelming probability is that it will this time.

It took me 40 years to figure this out. I would have a few million more in my accounts if i accepted this reality a lot earlier.

Disaster preparedness is assuming there will be no disaster.

#22 Jim Tadon on 08.10.22 at 4:41 pm

Why do bond yields not fall today with lower inflation report,? seem to have gone up somewhat

#23 Sail Away on 08.10.22 at 4:47 pm

Wait… so buying the dip worked? Again?

So the doomers and gleefully sadistic titterers were wrong… again?

What next? For the SA portfolio, the time seems just about right to buy banks that were overly precious in January.

#24 Søren Angst on 08.10.22 at 4:50 pm

#8 TurnerNation

On the hospital stuff.

—-

4th jab, had my left chin sag (Grazie Pfizer), apparently this happens to 1/1000 (lucky me)…inner cheek infection a day later.

Italian Healthcare:

1. Walked 7 min. to hospital emergency (Saturday – Doc Office closed). When you are a Paleo “Location, Location, Location” is near a hospital and NOT a school.

2. Got immediately sent to a Specialist, got my scrip, went to the Pharmacy nearby, got my Corticosteroid + Anti-Bacterial pills enough for +10 days, walked home, took the first course of pills, cost €1.59.

#2 took 1.5 hrs in total.

———————

Oh ya, my Doc retired a couple of weeks ago here in Italia. E-mailed in the morning the FVG Italia Health Authority (upon receiving their notice) with my new Doc selection (they have a Google Map of nearby Doc’s showing walking distances, their specialties, even ratings, etc.) with many available to select from – like at least 10. Got an e-mail response later that day that I was officially signed up with the new Doc I selected.

———————

Saw the Cdn Healthcare System in BC and AB degrade when taking in my parents to basically die in the early 90’s then again the early 2000’s.

One reason I moved to Italia. Did not like what I saw, one bit. You could see the writing on the wall back then.

For the life of me I CANNOT UNDERSTAND how a nation as wealthy and with the highest % of educated people on Planet Earth as Canada, allow its healthcare systems to unravel as they are doing.

Incomprehensible to me.

#25 Prince Polo on 08.10.22 at 4:55 pm

Should have asked the grandparents for their “prescience passport” and whether it got stamped in any previous downturn. Otherwise, panic is simply an invitation to “opportunistically rebalance”…tasty treats like S&P500, US value, Biotech, Costco, and AMD.

Signed,
A loser winner renter

#26 TurnerNation on 08.10.22 at 4:56 pm

Just another day in the Former First World Countries. WW3 began March 2020 and the supply lines are being cut. The planned wind-down continues:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/uk-braces-for-blackouts-gas-cuts-in-january-in-emergency-plan
“UK Plans for Blackouts in January in Emergency Energy Plan. Reasonable worst-case scenario envisages 4-day power shortfall. Industry, households could face planned power outages”

————-

Control over travel…here to stay. Say how many did they fire? Alllmost back to 2019 normal.
Trapped in our crowded, fetid “UN Smart cities”

.Halifax Transit Cancels 75 Bus Routes, Due To Staff Shortages (atlantic.ctvnews.ca)

.Experts warn ArriveCAN app could be violating constitutionally protected rights (globalnews.ca)

.Here’s why thousands of tourists are trapped in ‘China’s Hawaii’ (deseret.com)

.Only 8,000 foreign tourists visited Japan in June, July
(nhk.or.jp)


— How’s the Hospital Capacity looking?

.Cost of terminating City of Hamilton employees over vaccine status could near $7.4 million, staff warn (cp24.com)

#27 Nora Lenderby on 08.10.22 at 4:57 pm

As for the remarks about investment horizons for older people; in my late mother’s case, I took over her financial affairs when she was 85.

In fact she lived to be 92, and never had a need to “cash out”. She died with more than she had at the beginning – the income being more than she needed to live large in a lovely retirement home.

I was fairly conservative with her money, just the same.

#28 NoOneOfConsequence on 08.10.22 at 4:58 pm

@Reality Check
Thank you – that’s an interesting viewpoint.

I am not fond of mutually exclusive choices.

Assume no disaster, if there is never one, I win.
Assume no disaster, if there is one, I lose.

I would prefer to place rather than win or lose.

You must not believe in insurance!

#29 The Original Jake on 08.10.22 at 5:00 pm

“Price reductions will be more in evidence next month and beyond. Sale values will continue to fall.”

Please let us know when it’s time to vulch GTA real estate. Prices are still double from 2014.

#30 The Original Jake on 08.10.22 at 5:03 pm

#3 Dave on 08.10.22 at 3:50 pm
If Putin turns off the taps to EU….doesn’t that change everything.

Putin will weaponize energy. It’s going to be a long, cold winter for northern Europeans with restrictions in place on heating.

#31 The Original Jake on 08.10.22 at 5:05 pm

#9 Irish Stew on 08.10.22 at 4:14 pm
Trying to sell my mother’s estate property.
Hasn’t gone well.
The market is dead.

I sold the family home (GTA) in June, not the top but glad to be out. Deal closed without a hitch.

#32 Steven on 08.10.22 at 5:06 pm

Interest rates are markets.

Nothing else matters and nothing is going down as long as rates are low and Trillions of excess dollars are floating around the world.

All you need to know.

Please send your 3% commission for that info for the billions worldwide starving because of this. Thank you.

#33 cramar on 08.10.22 at 5:06 pm

For years Garth has been reporting on people who panic and dump their investments at the bottom. It is a sad thing to read about, especially when it is an older couple.

After close today Disney reported record profits. Their theme parks are booming. What recession??

#34 The Original Jake on 08.10.22 at 5:07 pm

#9 Irish Stew on 08.10.22 at 4:14 pm
Trying to sell my mother’s estate property.
Hasn’t gone well.
The market is dead.

I sold my parent’s original home (GTA) in June, not the top but glad to be out. Deal closed without a hitch.

#35 Senator Bluto on 08.10.22 at 5:08 pm

This is starting to look ugly for the FBI. Rumors are swirling that the Trump raid was based on a request for documents by…… the National Archives.

Think about that a bit. The National Archives wants some papers for their Presidential collection, so the FBI uses that as an excuse to mount a bull blown raid on a former President, which includes special agents to troll through the former first ladies unmentionables drawer.

All of this to try to remove Trump from another run at the White House.

Anybody out there still believe that the present U.S. government is not a criminal leftist police state?

Go away. You are embarrassing us. – Garth

#36 Don Guillermo on 08.10.22 at 5:09 pm

#10 Nickleback on 08.10.22 at 4:15 pm
Somebody save me!
My million dollar home
Going down to zero
Why did I leave Toronto
To buy a trap in Cornwall?
—-‐———————

Sell the crack shack in GTA or the LM and enjoy this!

Watch “Insane POOL in a $1,670,000 Christie Park Estate Home! Calgary Million Dollar Tours 2022” on YouTube

C/W city views and a 4 season pool/BBQ area

https://youtu.be/HLfMyxNPb0o

#37 Steven on 08.10.22 at 5:12 pm

Please continue raising rates.

For each hike, less people yap about what their house is now worth. Once they start dropping again, How much my house is worth this minute will resume.

Lately it’s been near zero yapping. Enjoy the silence.

Thank god, now people can actually be creative and talk about something else like: Is it dark at night,? I can’t stand this heat, The Jays suck and other important matters that really make you wonder….

How many people actually have a brain and think?

#38 DON on 08.10.22 at 5:17 pm

Europe’s crops are facing drought conditions and the rivers are drying up.

Gasolines prices are slightly down but winter is coming.

Have to wait and see.

#39 WTF on 08.10.22 at 5:37 pm

#34Bluto the Paranoid “This is starting to look ugly for the FBI. ”
—————————————————————
The FBI where the reigning Director was appointed by the Grifter himself? That FBI?

Donnie has a copy of the warrant. Instead of his perpetual whining and conspiracy assertions, He could show the world what they were searching for…….

You people are becoming really tiresome

#40 Sail Away on 08.10.22 at 5:41 pm

We interrupt this program for an important message:

The Recession has been Cancelled

Carry on.

#41 RichardTO on 08.10.22 at 6:01 pm

DELETED

#42 chalkie on 08.10.22 at 6:06 pm

Joe the realtor from the big smoke, told me that he has one single detached home that is now being marked down for the third time in two months. The seller keeps insisting on keeping the selling price higher and todays mark down is still 4o or 50 thousand overpriced then what the market will pay in the realtor’s opinion, in total the home has dropped $180,000 and still no deal. The seller wants open house after open house, just a waste of time, with the traffic getting less and less on each showing and one open house saw no one attend. The seller is now wishing that he would have taken a previous offer that is now considered high from today’s market price. “Lesson, for the sellers here is”, if you need to go, let it go, buyers are getting more price savvy by the day, tomorrow’s market will be that much worst and the wait for the market to recover, may be a good five or more years away. Your age will never come down, but home prices will continue to fall for many months to come, as sure as God made little green apples.

#43 Dr V on 08.10.22 at 6:09 pm

20 Domino

“Thus if someone is , let say 70. Has 1.5m in assets I would suggest that yes, cash it in , put in laddered gic or similar and you will have on top of ccp and osa at least 100k a year for the next 15 yrs, more if you don’t give any to the brats. At which time you can if you want do a reverse mortgage.”
———————————————–

Sure, cash it all in and pay all that cap gains tax. Then pay max tax on your interest earning GICs. And lose the
compounding because you are taking the income.

Why not re-allocate some investments to our beloved banks? You know, the ones that keep raising their
tax-advantaged dividends, and have potential for some
long term growth too?

#44 Millennial 1%er on 08.10.22 at 6:12 pm

Put a solid 25 grand into my RRSP & TFSA over the “bear market”

welcome to the rodeo

#45 Free Advice on 08.10.22 at 6:14 pm

#24 Soren Angst
4th jab, had my left chin sag (Grazie Pfizer), apparently this happens to 1/1000 (lucky me)…inner cheek infection a day later.

……………..

The cure is a Fifth shot!
You will then be fine and “up to date” by Canadian health care standards

#46 To the point. on 08.10.22 at 6:36 pm

“Are you telling me your grandkid is about to grow up in some kind of hell?, I asked. Is that what you believe?
Of course not.”

Stock markets are one thing, but apart from wishful thinking and feelings, I would love to hear the objective evidence for bringing babies into today’s world. Anyone want to try??

#47 The General on 08.10.22 at 6:41 pm

“The scientific rulers will provide one kind of education for ordinary men and women and another for those who are to become holders of scientific power. Ordinary men and women will be expected to be docile, industrious, punctual, thoughtless and contented. Of these qualities, probably contentment will be considered the most important. All the boys and girls will learn from an early age to be what is called “cooperative” i.e.: to do exactly what everybody else is doing. Initiative will be discouraged in these children, and insubordination, without being punished will be trained out of them.”

Bertrand Russell- Scientific Outlook (1931)

I can see clearly now….

#48 tooshort on 08.10.22 at 6:42 pm

I think this inflation is way stickier than our host wants to acknowledge. Just listened to a great interview with Jesse Felder on the wealthion channel and he reminded us that corporate earnings and margins are at an all time high currently and a reversion to the mean could be painfull fro valuations in the stock mkt.

Also the fact that globalization is on the way out means driving up the prices of goods significantly. Add in the demographics which have too many retirees and too few qualified workers (highly inflationary) , the crazy yield curve inversion and you have a very bleak picture going forward (not just for RE).

#49 Paul on 08.10.22 at 6:46 pm

Anyone in retirement who needs the cash flow should be in high yield dividend stocks or funds. Canoe EIT.UN is paying over 9% yield. Playing the capital gain game when you need cash monthly is a huge risk.

#50 Steven Rowlandson on 08.10.22 at 6:51 pm

The nature of those jobs? Part time at equal to or slightly better than minimum wage? That dog don’t hunt and anything over 3 years pay for a home is criminal….

#51 Mattl on 08.10.22 at 6:52 pm

I’m not convinced that markets are uppa from here. Consumer spending lags, this story will play out over the next 6 months. Data I am seeing is same store sales volume is down fairly significantly, and adjusted for inflation in the negative. It’s going to take a while to unwind the exuberance of the past 10 years.

Personally we are finding it easy to find camp sights, rentals in Maui for this spring, and spots on the golf course. Hardly a disaster but most mortgages haven’t reset/renewed, we are in the first inning, little to early to declare victory.

#52 Annek on 08.10.22 at 7:00 pm

Prices of houses in Canada are not determined by value but what the “ sheeple” believe they should be. When real estate was increasing, people kept bidding up and paying more because they believed that houses could only go up and up. Now that there is a correction, the perception has changed and here is a hesitancy. That will persist for a long time. I have never been able to understand why home prices in the USA were half to a third of Canadian prices in most of the country. I have seen what you can get in the USA compared to Canada and it blows my mind.
In addition, mortgages are tax deductible. Part of the problem in Canada is the Capital gains exemption for the primary home. This needs to be seriously looked at.
Having seen many homes in TORONTO that were “shacks “ and were supposed to be over a million dollars, I would shake my head. ( my job involved going into homes for medical assessments)
I would not even let my dog live in them.
Yet they were worth a million.
Time for a change.

#53 Stone on 08.10.22 at 7:01 pm

#12 Michael on 08.10.22 at 4:16 pm
I will never understand why people invest with a pro money manager and then REFUSE THEIR ADVICE! What is the pro being paid for other than to use their professional judgement in your favour? Why would you second guess them? Just shove your money under the mattress and save the management fee folks! Oy!

———

It’s a good question to ask. Having worked in the banking industry myself, in most cases, it’s the financial services professional who is at fault.

Don’t get to know the client properly. Their risk profile. Time horizon. Their aversion to loss. Not doing proactive contacts with client, especially when crappy times in the market are upcoming or occurring. Not explaining what the investments are that are being used. Not explaining the cashflow (income generation) strategy of the portfolio nor the longer term capital appreciation model of the portfolio. The professional advisor should have the client explain each of the above in their own words to ensure they understand what they’re getting themselves into. If they can’t, that’s a red flag.

You do have the occasional client who’s a real dimwit. In the case of the dimwit client, the advisor should refuse that client as it likely will lead to sorrow on both sides.

#54 Sail Away on 08.10.22 at 7:07 pm

#43 Dr V on 08.10.22 at 6:09 pm
20 Domino

“Thus if someone is , let say 70. Has 1.5m in assets I would suggest that yes, cash it in , put in laddered gic or similar and you will have on top of ccp and osa at least 100k a year for the next 15 yrs, more if you don’t give any to the brats. At which time you can if you want do a reverse mortgage.”

——–

Sure, cash it all in and pay all that cap gains tax. Then pay max tax on your interest earning GICs. And lose the
compounding because you are taking the income.

Why not re-allocate some investments to our beloved banks? You know, the ones that keep raising their
tax-advantaged dividends, and have potential for some
long term growth too?

——–

Why do people feel qualified to give horrendously bad suggestions? A simple, off-the-cuff suggestion, such as the one made by Domino, could, if followed, immediately make somebody’s financial life immeasurably worse.

Slap yourself, D. Don’t suggest anything except maybe spaghetti for dinner.

#55 KLNR on 08.10.22 at 7:16 pm

@#19 Editrix on 08.10.22 at 4:28 pm
On July 13, a semi in my Toronto neighbourhood, which had been on the market for a couple of weeks, was asking $1,200,000. By the 26th, it was $1,100,000 and today it is $925,000.

I’ll buy it when it hits $650K and make it a rental until one of my kids needs it.

all the way back to 2005 prices eh.

#56 Ustabe on 08.10.22 at 7:18 pm

#35 Senator Bluto on 08.10.22 at 5:08 pm

This is starting to look ugly for the FBI. Rumors are swirling that the Trump raid was based on a request for documents by…… the National Archives.

Think about that a bit. The National Archives wants some papers for their Presidential collection, so the FBI uses that as an excuse to mount a bull blown raid on a former President, which includes special agents to troll through the former first ladies unmentionables drawer.

All of this to try to remove Trump from another run at the White House.

Anybody out there still believe that the present U.S. government is not a criminal leftist police state?

Go away. You are embarrassing us. – Garth

The saddest thing in all this is Trump’s private library was inadvertently destroyed.

Both books were beyond repair and he hadn’t even finished colouring them in yet!

Simply an outrage, eh?

#57 Cici on 08.10.22 at 7:28 pm

#39 WTF on 08.10.22 at 5:37 pm
#34Bluto the Paranoid “This is starting to look ugly for the FBI. ”
—————————————————————
The FBI where the reigning Director was appointed by the Grifter himself? That FBI?

Donnie has a copy of the warrant. Instead of his perpetual whining and conspiracy assertions, He could show the world what they were searching for…….

You people are becoming really tiresome
____________________________________________

Hahahahah! Well said WTF ;-)

#58 No so fast on 08.10.22 at 7:59 pm

This is a bear market summer rally. The FED has not been able to unload their balance sheet due to no buyers. They are also still doing QE. The jobs report is bogus as it contains many part time jobs or people working two or more jobs and doesn’t count those who have given up looking for work. Inflation is still out of control. Even Blackrock says we are not even close to being out of the woods yet.

#59 rampant inflation on 08.10.22 at 8:24 pm

#49 Paul on 08.10.22 at 6:46 pm

Anyone in retirement who needs the cash flow should be in high yield dividend stocks or funds. Canoe EIT.UN is paying over 9% yield. Playing the capital gain game when you need cash monthly is a huge risk.
_____________________

lol. you’re kidding right? they’re giving you your money back and you think you’re getting a dividend? you don’t even have a clue what you own, do you?

#60 jess on 08.10.22 at 8:29 pm

self inflicted indeed …first of all the warrant is under seal Trump has an inventory list of what was removed.

Who is Subramanya
Right-Wing Sources are Spreading Misinformation About a Court Battle Over Canada’s Vaccine Mandates

Original court documents tell a different story than the one contained in a viral blog post from a convoy-friendly National Post columnist
by Luke LeBrun, Editor
August 9, 2022

https://pressprogress.ca/right-wing-sources-are-spreading-misinformation-about-a-court-battle-over-canadas-vaccine-mandates/

#61 mark on 08.10.22 at 8:54 pm

Portfolio construction is the easy part. You pay the adviser for behavioral guidance and he that won’t be counseled can’t be helped.

#62 And on 08.10.22 at 9:04 pm

So do we think that the Brampton real estate agent that got hacked by a machete today is related to the real estate downturn? Things I never thought I’d see in my life.

#63 Dr V on 08.10.22 at 9:09 pm

44 M1

Put a solid 25 grand into my RRSP & TFSA over the “bear market”
—————————————–

Though I acknowledge this good work, a 1%er investor is up more than that much today alone.

#64 Kenneth Upton on 08.10.22 at 9:13 pm

Garth, Love your blog, just wanted to mention, how can you mock fear. Everybody has something they fear. Some people, especially the elderly, just do not have the testicular fortitude to watch their portfolio drop and they sell so that they can fall asleep – that’s ok. It’s the same fear that grips single people who want to drive around in their car with a N95 on. Everybody’s different. I don’t blame those people for selling, it happens and they need to sleep. Look at it this way, you and I are driving from Toronto to Mount Elgin to count the houses, we witness a rollover. We both stop but I run out of the car to go help and you stay behind the wheel due to what, fear? That’s hypothetical – but you get the gist. Fear of pulling people out of a car, fear of getting covid off your dashboard, or maybe fear of watching your entire portfolio and in some peoples grey matter, their financial future falling off a Cliff. It’s how the world turns, it’s the way humans are even if you plead your logical case. Anyways, just my two cents and keep up the good work.

#65 dosouth on 08.10.22 at 9:18 pm

Of the 30,000 who left the job market, how many where reaching 65 and joyfully adding to the pensioned “elite”?
—————

Other than the proper spelling of were, I just can’t stop laughing about us retired pensioned “elite”….where we get no more funds to pay for gas, grocery or medical cost increases let alone feel “elitist”….wow, how is it they say…ROFL

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.10.22 at 9:26 pm

@#39 WTF
“Donnie has a copy of the warrant. Instead of his perpetual whining and conspiracy assertions, He could show the world what they were searching for…….”

++++

Yep.
The New York Attorney General’s Office questioned Trump for hours about his real estate holdings.

He pleads the 5th.
“The 5th Amendment clause on the grounds it may incriminate him if he answers the question.”

His son Eric Trump …. when meeting with the New York AG office…..
Pleads the 5th……. over 500 times….

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/eric-trump-pleaded-fifth-more-005458590.html

Grifters and their BS… eventually get exposed.

#67 Victor Llearna on 08.10.22 at 9:53 pm

I guess those people that cashed out learn a lesson the hard way. Or maybe they were waiting for USA S&P to go down to 3200 and then buy back in

#68 Don on 08.10.22 at 9:54 pm

Jess why in the heck would you trust a fact checker. They are in on it

#69 PBrasseur on 08.10.22 at 10:03 pm

Meanwhile, look at the latest jobs numbers. Historic.

Proof that money printing and debt can fuel an economy, then what?

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.10.22 at 10:07 pm

Well.
I guess things could be worse for Trump.

He could be married to a California Doctor of dermatology

https://globalnews.ca/news/9050345/california-doctor-poisons-husband-drano/

#71 FerrisWheel on 08.10.22 at 10:09 pm

With all due respect, I think you are miscalculating this recent increase in the S&P 500. It just bating in the rest of the crowd before another downdraft due to an earnings recession.

Just stay invested. How hard is that? – Garth

#72 DJT on 08.10.22 at 10:21 pm

#66 crowdedelevatorfartz

Today a Federal Judge ordered the DOJ to release the Warrant details to Trump by Monday, meaning you are spreading fake news again.

#73 Warren-the-lagging_indicator on 08.10.22 at 10:22 pm

The headline number number went down because of the gasoline prices dropped. Look at the components as it is dominated by energy. No spare capacity left, years of underinvestment and vilification, investors demanding stock buybacks plus dividends instead of growth. All this plus the SPR runs out just before the midterms. After that guess what happens.

#74 DON on 08.10.22 at 10:28 pm

#62 And on 08.10.22 at 9:04 pm
So do we think that the Brampton real estate agent that got hacked by a machete today is related to the real estate downturn? Things I never thought I’d see in my life.
********
Just watched the horrific house video footage of the attack. He also has a podcast a talks about issues concerning India. His mother ran to his aid and chased the cowards off. She saved his life.

Recently the man acquitted of the 1985 Air India bombing was gunned down at his house in Vancouver.

#75 West New West on 08.10.22 at 10:29 pm

Haha LMAO….’go away you’re embarrassing us’ love it

#76 DON on 08.10.22 at 10:32 pm

General observation…the World is in a FUNK.

@Mattl
I also heard therr are deals on the Big Island. Am watching the vacation rentals also. Hopefully our dollar is stronger next year.

#77 THE DANDADA on 08.10.22 at 10:46 pm

I love to refute a good thesis but King Turner is not one to bet against.

#78 Nonplused on 08.10.22 at 11:12 pm

I believe we are in a recession and it is going to be fairly protracted as recessions go, and those who can’t see it are being confused by all the inflation. Inflation adjust everything and it is clearly a recession. Lots of job openings, yes, but they are all paying 9% less than last year.

I also don’t see what the panic is about. Recessions are normal, part of what they call “the business cycle”, but it is really more of an “economic cycle”. The economy isn’t some sort of a machine that can be controlled by shifting gears and adjusting input dials. It is more of an iterative process where new things are constantly being tried, and old things die out. It’s much more of an evolutionary process than a straight path from A to B.

There are so many things going on in the economy, everything from weather to scientific discoveries, that it is impossible to model except in the most rudimentary way. Think of it as every day a thousand small mutations that have to be selected either in or out of the economic gene pool. Then add in government actions, and you have some infrequent but rather large mutations, to which the whole economy has to adjust through another 1000 small mutations.

So, recession? Yes. But let’s be Alfred Newman about it: “What, me worry?” The sun can’t shine every day.

The big news of the day is not the raid on Mar-A-Lago. That’s news of course, everyone probably was curious what was in Melania’s closet, and now we get to find out. But no, the big news is that a modular nuclear reactor got approved and licensed for construction in the US, hopefully to generate first power in 2029, which isn’t that far away as such things go. Finally something to maybe work towards a solution to our multiple current actual problems. I mean electric cars might be nice, once we can charge them all, using something other than Putin Power.

#79 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.10.22 at 11:12 pm

#72 DJT on 08.10.22 at 10:21 pm
#66 crowdedelevatorfartz

Today a Federal Judge ordered the DOJ to release the Warrant details to Trump by Monday, meaning you are spreading fake news again
————————
Yep,
FURZ is a Faker, that’s for sure.

#80 Russ on 08.10.22 at 11:29 pm

DON on 08.10.22 at 10:32 pm

General observation…the World is in a FUNK.

@Mattl
I also heard therr are deals on the Big Island. Am watching the vacation rentals also. Hopefully our dollar is stronger next year.

———————————

Our DON,

Please keep us informed with any deals you might find (even your rejects).

The Big Island is our favourite and it’s been over 2 1/2 years since we’ve been there so looking at this winter too.

Be warned! Check car rentals before you commit, the Big Island is currently sitting at $4000USD/mth for a winter month.
This may “drive” us to Oahu as you can get by without a car there.

https://www.discounthawaiicarrental.com/en-ca/

Cheers, R

#81 Alex on 08.11.22 at 12:01 am

#52
Stop spreading nonsense
Mortgages in US are not tax deductible. Theoretically they are but capped at 10k itemized dedication while you get 25k non itemized. So de facto they are not.
Second, mortgage rates are about 1% higher and getting it cost 5-10k more compared to Canada (1% of mortgage amount as origination cost)
Refinance also cost about five thousand compared to five hundred I paid in Canada

In short, financing is MORE expensive in Us, maybe that one of the reasons price is cheaper?
Btw property tax is much bigger in US too…

#82 Joseph R on 08.11.22 at 12:06 am

#39 WTF on 08.10.22 at 5:37 pm
#34Bluto the Paranoid “This is starting to look ugly for the FBI. ”
—————————————————————
The FBI where the reigning Director was appointed by the Grifter himself? That FBI?

Donnie has a copy of the warrant. Instead of his perpetual whining and conspiracy assertions, He could show the world what they were searching for…….

You people are becoming really tiresome
———————–

Since he has a gift for hiring very bad lawyers, watch as his current lawyer tells a bit of what the warrant was about:

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trumps-lawyer-claims-fbi-warrant-to-raid-mar-a-lago-was-partly-sealed-we-dont-know-what-the-probable-cause-is/

#83 Harry Emerson-Blake on 08.11.22 at 12:09 am

The recent employment numbers will only produce a soft landing if the numbers are honest and correct without the usual revisions likely hitting the back pages in 3-4 weeks. Many of us, who’ve watched for decades as revisions expose the truth would rather wait until then. This government in particular doesn’t have the best track record of honest transparency.

It’s hardly a win for citizens to realize that a huge proportion of “ newly employed” are in fact new civil servants from special interest groups trading prosperity for the vote bloc they represent.

As you know, civil servants don’t add to GDP. They’re a net drag on the community balance sheet. Estimates, season adjustments and the birth death model don’t add to GDP either, ghost numbers aren’t investable. Using artificial models to project interest rates is a fantasy as said by an ex BOC governor who isn’t fooled by the Liberal Party Frankie numbers. Let’s stop wishing away Covid, the growth of debt, Ottawas raging inflation. Investors must be sanguine. Nothing coming out of Ottawa indicates a soft landing, nothing. My suggestion is to prepare for the worst.

#84 fishman on 08.11.22 at 12:50 am

When the war is over? Putin demands regime change. Z says Russia out of the Crimea. Russia lost 375k in the Crimea & 60k at Odessa to the Wehrmacht. If Russia loses the Crimea the government will collapse. That means a huge front for the millions flooding through Russia into Europe. But who cares about the Euroweenies? Its those thousands of tactical nuclear warheads that are under control of all those hyper patriotic young Russian officers. Young because all the old guys plus all their mates will be dead. Young men with attitude. Rest assured every wannabe rocket man, despot & oversexed teenager looking for a shortcut to the 72 virgins will be shopping the merchandise. Everybody in Russia is scared,really scared. We got some catching up to do.

#85 Poweder_hound86 on 08.11.22 at 1:19 am

Far too early to tell if this is an epic ‘dead cat bounce’ or the start of a new uptrend.

Stay invested regardless though, should go without saying.

#86 BCWally on 08.11.22 at 1:27 am

Wow. I understand that fear totally. Massive security issues. Emotions win again unfortunately.
I know a guy still working away with me after selling out in March, 2009. He looks tired and old, because he is and shouldn’t be there. He’s a friend and it hurts to watch him struggle.
I’m in the game, fully risk on and staying there. Even adding money. It’s a test of faith. I’m 5-6 years from hanging up the spurs so it matters.
If there are any doubts the markets today proved exactly why you should stay in. Forget all those opinions in the financial news.
One small insignificant blip lower on a lousy inflation number that’s still lousy and a whack of money hidden in the investor version of mattresses came out for the parade. That might be misguided right now but the important point is that it showed up. There’s a ton more where that came from.
It’s waiting, languishing in low yield purgatory, ready to pounce. You can feel the tension building after months of garbage returns, the drive for payback getting stronger every day.
That you can have faith in. Predatory? Damn straight it is.
I intend to be there when the dam bursts. So should everybody else. Don’t know when but it won’t take much.
Then you won’t have to be that person still struggling in old age.

#87 Tom from Mississauga on 08.11.22 at 1:33 am

Retirees are going to cash in foreign currency, bonds and stocks as they can’t handle the volatility. As Boomers go into full reverse from mass capital contributors to drawers the cost of capital is going to rise. Expect rates to go up and stay there.
The Canadian job reports and vacancies are telling a story of a country entering mass retirement.

#88 Jane24 on 08.11.22 at 2:42 am

Since all the CBs have been 100% wrong so far on dealing with inflation and the the cost of living, their opinion on when inflation will peak has little validity. They will simply be wrong again as they are too controlled by political interests to do the job they are tasked with. This is the same in every country. CBs are not fit for purpose.

Here in England 100% WFH or hybrid WFH has become the new norm. Most job ads are WFH or they will get no applicants. The shoe really is on the potential employee’s foot. All my children and my friends’ children are now permanently WFH. Much cheaper for many businesses than paying pesky bills for main offices. Downtowns are devastated but hey they will evolve into other purposes. Such is life. As a pensioner the permanent reduction in rush hour is such a blessing.

#89 jess on 08.11.22 at 7:34 am

inflation?

Spoofing became illegal with the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010.
The evidence at trial showed that between approximately May 2008 and August 2016, the defendants, along with other traders on the JPMorgan precious metals desk, engaged in a widespread spoofing, market manipulation, and fraud scheme. The defendants placed orders that they intended to cancel before execution in order to drive prices on orders they intended to execute on the opposite side of the market. The defendants engaged in thousands of deceptive trading sequences for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts traded through the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc. (NYMEX) and Commodity Exchange Inc. (COMEX), which are commodities exchanges operated by CME Group Inc. These deceptive orders were intended to inject false and misleading information about the genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts into the markets.

In September 2020, JPMorgan admitted to committing wire fraud in connection with: (1) unlawful trading in the markets for precious metals futures contracts; and (2) unlawful trading in the markets for U.S. Treasury futures contracts and in the secondary (cash) market for U.S. Treasury notes and bonds. JPMorgan entered into a three-year deferred prosecution agreement through which it paid more than $920 million in a criminal monetary penalty, criminal disgorgement, and victim compensation, with parallel resolutions by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities Exchange Commission announced on the same day.The evidence at trial showed that between approximately May 2008 and August 2016, the defendants, along with other traders on the JPMorgan precious metals desk, engaged in a widespread spoofing, market manipulation, and fraud scheme. The defendants placed orders that they intended to cancel before execution in order to drive prices on orders they intended to execute on the opposite side of the market. The defendants engaged in thousands of deceptive trading sequences for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts traded through the New York Mercantile Exchange Inc. (NYMEX) and Commodity Exchange Inc. (COMEX), which are commodities exchanges operated by CME Group Inc. These deceptive orders were intended to inject false and misleading information about the genuine supply and demand for precious metals futures contracts into the markets.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-jp-morgan-traders-convicted-fraud-attempted-price-manipulation-and-spoofing-multi-year

#90 Seaner on 08.11.22 at 7:38 am

Although I am not retired as these folks are, I once was tempted to return to cash but a friend asked me a most important question. “Do you really need the money in the near future”? Of course I didn’t and shortly after, the markets returned and gained.

#91 jess on 08.11.22 at 7:45 am

july 19, 2022 — JPMorgan Trader Spoofed So Fast Colleagues Urged Ice on Fingers. Top gold trader’s … Three ex-precious metals employees on trial for fraud.

man or muppet?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_P0KsvDif0s

#92 Shawn on 08.11.22 at 7:56 am

YES Government workers contribute to GDP

Harry Emerson Blake at 83 made the false assertion:

“As you know, civil servants don’t add to GDP”

That is completely false. Statistics Canada provides the components of GDP and shows that Health care as well as public administration and educational services are BIG contributors to GDP.

Why would you think that a teacher in a public school adds nothing to GDP while one in a private school does? Same for an administrator in a school versus a factory. Both are producing something. Services are a huge part of GDP.

Anyone who cares to learn can see my short article here:

https://www.investorsfriend.com/canadian-GDP-canadian-imports-and-exports/

And if you think well all the money comes from the private sector then you need to learn that money is an intangible way to exchange value and health care and teaching has value. Money just represents value created by the actual goods and services. Money has value as a claim on goods and services.

Anyhow Emerson-Blake demonstrates that he simply does not trust actual government statistics so he is a lost cause but I can’t let his false claim stand. Others might be mislead.

#93 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.11.22 at 8:27 am

@#79 Ponzies Pals
“FURZ is a Faker,

+++

Hanging out with the Trumpsters now Ponzie?
“Sad, so sad.”

If part of the FBI warrant was “sealed” that may be a due to a Prez Trump possible National security breach?
For all the conspiracy nutters out there its very simple.

Removing Whitehouse documents from the Presidential Office is… a… crime.
Destroying Presidential documents is… a… crime.
If he did either one of those things OR instructed people to do it….
Cant wait to hear Prez Trumps version of events.
“Sad, so sad.”

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.11.22 at 8:36 am

Citizen Trump may have broken a Law that President Trump signed into Law.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/10/trump-fbi-search-surveillance-law/

Oh the irony.
Removing classified documents from a secure location without authorization is a felony punishable by up to 5 years in prison….and, if convicted.
He’s not allowed to run for President…. :)
“Sad, so sad.”

Furz signing out….

#95 the jaguar on 08.11.22 at 8:57 am

@84 Fishman…..

The one you refer to is almost over. The one that is far more dangerous now emerging – Kosovo.
That pot boiling away in the background for some time and isn’t that where it always begins…..

#96 Harry Emerson-Blake on 08.11.22 at 9:21 am

#92 Shawn

According to the PBO , and I paraphrase, civil servants produce nothing and take a lot, argue with him.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/budget-watchdog-finds-average-public-service-job-costs-114k-1.1174021

#97 tim temeyer on 08.11.22 at 9:55 am

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/housing-correction-gaining-pace-to-continue-next-year-report-1.1804436

Desjardins is forecasting the average home price in Canada will decline by nearly 25 per cent by the end of 2023 from the peak reached in February of this year.

Regionally, the report says the largest price corrections are most likely to occur in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, where prices skyrocketed during the pandemic.

#98 Quintilian on 08.11.22 at 10:10 am

Greed and fear rule the equity markets, and are both equally destructive.

If you bailed out when fear was rampant; you lose.

If you stayed in too long because greed was all the rage; you lose.

If you want to gamble in the public company casinos, it’s your money, and that is all the justification you need, but don’t call it investing.

It’s gambling.

The next few rolls the dices may not give you reason to remain giddy.

The solution is simple: Be balanced and diversified. That is why ETFs beat individual stocks and 60/40 kills stress. – Garth

#99 Senator Bluto on 08.11.22 at 10:22 am

DELETED (Conspiracy nut)

#100 IHCTD9 on 08.11.22 at 10:35 am

#74 DON on 08.10.22 at 10:28 pm
#62 And on 08.10.22 at 9:04 pm
So do we think that the Brampton real estate agent that got hacked by a machete today is related to the real estate downturn? Things I never thought I’d see in my life.
********
Just watched the horrific house video footage of the attack. He also has a podcast a talks about issues concerning India. His mother ran to his aid and chased the cowards off. She saved his life.

Recently the man acquitted of the 1985 Air India bombing was gunned down at his house in Vancouver.
_______

3 guys with axes and machetes, 30+ strikes, and almost no blood anywhere. Mom chases 3 armed male attackers off using a shoe, victim in stable condition.

Hmmm…

#101 robert james on 08.11.22 at 10:49 am

crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.11.22 at 8:36 am
Citizen Trump may have broken a Law that President Trump signed into Law. ……………………………………… Poor old Fatboy ,,, everyone is picking on him… lol

#102 Blacksheep on 08.11.22 at 10:53 am

Tom # 87,

“As Boomers go into full reverse from mass capital contributors to drawers the cost of capital is going to rise”
———————————-
Could you elaborate on your line of thinking please…

#103 DON on 08.11.22 at 10:56 am

#95 the jaguar on 08.11.22 at 8:57 am
@84 Fishman…..

The one you refer to is almost over. The one that is far more dangerous now emerging – Kosovo.
That pot boiling away in the background for some time and isn’t that where it always begins…..

**********

Boiling pot…for sure. Have a good friend in Bosnia, who provided me with the history. Also spoke with the lead peacekeeping soldier in the mid 90s.

This is how war spreads.

#104 DON on 08.11.22 at 10:58 am

#100 IHCTD9 on 08.11.22 at 10:35 am
#74 DON on 08.10.22 at 10:28 pm
#62 And on 08.10.22 at 9:04 pm
So do we think that the Brampton real estate agent that got hacked by a machete today is related to the real estate downturn? Things I never thought I’d see in my life.
********
Just watched the horrific house video footage of the attack. He also has a podcast a talks about issues concerning India. His mother ran to his aid and chased the cowards off. She saved his life.

Recently the man acquitted of the 1985 Air India bombing was gunned down at his house in Vancouver.
_______

3 guys with axes and machetes, 30+ strikes, and almost no blood anywhere. Mom chases 3 armed male attackers off using a shoe, victim in stable condition.

Hmmm…

********
I had the same thought. Awaiting further intell.

#105 DON on 08.11.22 at 11:01 am

80 Russ on 08.10.22 at 11:29 pm
DON on 08.10.22 at 10:32 pm

General observation…the World is in a FUNK.

@Mattl
I also heard therr are deals on the Big Island. Am watching the vacation rentals also. Hopefully our dollar is stronger next year.

———————————

Our DON,

Please keep us informed with any deals you might find (even your rejects).

The Big Island is our favourite and it’s been over 2 1/2 years since we’ve been there so looking at this winter too.

Be warned! Check car rentals before you commit, the Big Island is currently sitting at $4000USD/mth for a winter month.
This may “drive” us to Oahu as you can get by without a car there.

https://www.discounthawaiicarrental.com/en-ca/

Cheers, R

***********
Thanks for the info…i forgot about the car rentals.

Will share info for sure.

Did you work at Campbell Pulp?

#106 Philco on 08.11.22 at 11:08 am

• Odds of Bank of Canada hiking 75 basis points just went down. Read story https://financialpost.com/news/economy/cooler-us-inflation-lowers-odds-of-75-basis-point-rate-hike-in-canada

I agree with housing cooling bigtime the wealth effect in reverse there inflation cooling.

As I mentioned in prior blog. Cut fert 30% and see what happens Socks…
• We’re in a global food crisis that will wreak havoc on local economies and trigger civil unrest

https://www.businessinsider.com/global-food-crisis-higher-prices-shortages-civil-unrest-2022-8

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.11.22 at 8:36 am
The Clinton clan are 10 fold worse…how don’t you see that?
The Hilstir destroyed mega emails a very serious offence punishable with jail time and we got Crickets.
What you see and read is rigged crap. Mid terms are up so they need to kill Trump. Its a dog and pony show.
The US is way beyond corrupt and the professional politician’s will see that it is socialized and destroyed. Seen Oakland CA lately? Now a slum of crime and drugs makes Hatti look like a resort town. I’ve been to both places in the past. The US is finished partly due to the divide and infighting. Sad politics…China will rule.
A great concern of mine as they go we go CCP rules. I don’t get a lot of things wrong.

As I have been reading along when I can listening to the TB I mention I grabbed 6 figure in some REITs and ZPR. Looking very good now. Throwing off 4-6% up over 10 points.
I love sales…

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.11.22 at 11:14 am

#101 robert james on 08.11.22 at 10:49 am
crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.11.22 at 8:36 am
Citizen Trump may have broken a Law that President Trump signed into Law. ……………………………………… Poor old Fatboy ,,, everyone is picking on him… lol
——————-
I know.
It’s a Republican motto:
“One law for me, one law for thee”.

#108 Mattl on 08.11.22 at 11:25 am

#76 DON on 08.10.22 at 10:32 pm
General observation…the World is in a FUNK.

@Mattl
I also heard therr are deals on the Big Island. Am watching the vacation rentals also. Hopefully our dollar is stronger next year.

———————————————

Yup, we were watching a place that wanted 100% payment up front for a trip in April. Waited 4 weeks, reached back out and got much more favourable terms. Suspect prices would / will soften but we just wanted to lock the trip down due to the size of our group.

In previous years these places would have been booked solid a year out.

#109 Froggy on 08.11.22 at 11:28 am

Garth another fabulous blog chose me that many people just from the comments are not basically panicking at all that’s because they don’t hold huge mortgages and what is a huge mortgage $300,000 400,000 500, 000 no if anybody understands math when you buy a house or you know that’s what most people do they look at the monthlies and they usually pay within 5% of Max on a monthly you know and 5 years will be making 10% more so they’ve got a comfort zone the problem is little kitties is that when you have mortgages at one and a half go to five and a half that’s like applying for a 5% mortgage at the highest payment that you can afford and then having them go at 20%, so that’s what to expect get ready in 6 months it will have a huge impact in the GTA you’re looking at 20 points easy the next 6 months and after that it’s a depression and the real estate market depression understand depression thank you that’s it that’s all I have to say that’s my rent for today

#110 Sail Away on 08.11.22 at 11:37 am

Well, with the recession being cancelled, we went ahead and bought the banks this morning.

Perfect timing? Probably not… but good enough.

#111 Shawn on 08.11.22 at 11:39 am

Harry Emerson-Blake

Your link in no way supports your assertion about civil servants producing nothing. If I missed it quote the sentence.

I’m not here to argue with you. I just posted to set the record straight on your false assertion. My link in contrast to yours actually supports what I said that civil servants contribute to GDP and further links to the source data.

When you choose not to believe the data then you can simply believe whatever you want. I’m trying to protect others from your erroneous claims. Again, you are a lost cause so I do not seem to change your mind.

#112 IHCTD9 on 08.11.22 at 11:52 am

#104 DON on 08.11.22 at 10:58 am
#100 IHCTD9 on 08.11.22 at 10:35 am
#74 DON on 08.10.22 at 10:28 pm
#62 And on 08.10.22 at 9:04 pm
So do we think that the Brampton real estate agent that got hacked by a machete today is related to the real estate downturn? Things I never thought I’d see in my life.
********
Just watched the horrific house video footage of the attack. He also has a podcast a talks about issues concerning India. His mother ran to his aid and chased the cowards off. She saved his life.

Recently the man acquitted of the 1985 Air India bombing was gunned down at his house in Vancouver.
_______

3 guys with axes and machetes, 30+ strikes, and almost no blood anywhere. Mom chases 3 armed male attackers off using a shoe, victim in stable condition.

Hmmm…

********
I had the same thought. Awaiting further intell.
____

In the meantime Trudeau should ban all axes and machetes.

And shoes.

#113 Dave on 08.11.22 at 12:10 pm

What a bunch of BS. Inflation is not going back to 2% even it goes down to 4% to 5% you are still getting ruined, 1% to 2% annual fees on investments plus inflation, taxes and you will be lucky to break even.

#114 Dr V on 08.11.22 at 12:27 pm

100 IHCTD9 and 104 DON

“I had the same thought. Awaiting further intell.”
———————————————————

You are not alone.

#115 Don Guillermo on 08.11.22 at 12:33 pm

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.11.22 at 11:14 am

I know.
It’s a Republican motto:
“One law for me, one law for thee”.
#######

So now T2’s a Republican? He’s sneaky.

#116 Philco on 08.11.22 at 12:54 pm

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.11.22 at 11:14 am

Ya no one calls anyone else out ever. Its a media condition. JUST LIKE THE CBC.
Ya the rest are all angels. LOL

#117 Philco on 08.11.22 at 12:56 pm

Nice to get stuff right Garth! and not get caught up with the sheeple.

#118 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.11.22 at 1:25 pm

#105 DON on 08.11.22 at 11:01 am
80 Russ on 08.10.22 at 11:29 pm
DON on 08.10.22 at 10:32 pm

General observation…the World is in a FUNK.

@Mattl
I also heard therr are deals on the Big Island. Am watching the vacation rentals also. Hopefully our dollar is stronger next year.

———————————

Our DON,

Please keep us informed with any deals you might find (even your rejects).

The Big Island is our favourite and it’s been over 2 1/2 years since we’ve been there so looking at this winter too.

Be warned! Check car rentals before you commit, the Big Island is currently sitting at $4000USD/mth for a winter month.
This may “drive” us to Oahu as you can get by without a car there.

https://www.discounthawaiicarrental.com/en-ca/

Cheers, R

***********
Thanks for the info…i forgot about the car rentals.

Will share info for sure.

Did you work at Campbell Pulp?
————————
Not sure what the deal with Hawaii is?
Biggest tourist trap there is.
Even the sand is fake, from California.
Just go to California.
Much cheaper and more to do than just lying on fake sand and getting skin cancer.

#119 Philco on 08.11.22 at 1:29 pm

Ponz
Relying on the news for political view is the same as relying on it for your financial success. Worthless.
Just like the whistle blower laws they brought in. Worthless

#120 the Jaguar on 08.11.22 at 1:48 pm

@#103 DON on 08.11.22 at 10:56 am
#95 the jaguar on 08.11.22 at 8:57 am
@84 Fishman…..

The one you refer to is almost over. The one that is far more dangerous now emerging – Kosovo.
That pot boiling away in the background for some time and isn’t that where it always begins…..

**********

Boiling pot…for sure. Have a good friend in Bosnia, who provided me with the history. Also spoke with the lead peacekeeping soldier in the mid 90s.

This is how war spreads.++++

Indeed. In Europe the grievances of the past are alive and well, especially where there are religious differences such as in the Balkan area.
But even where neighbours are both Christian and speak a slavic language ( Russia/Poland) there is true hatred. Long before the current dust up.

We forget these things in the New World because we had to get along out of necessity. But the world is run on the basis of ‘tribes and tribal thinking’. Denying that is foolish.
Tell us more about the deals on the Big Island, Don….

#121 Brian on 08.11.22 at 2:00 pm

Epic Collapse Is Upon Us
What’s wrong with the world? Let me count the ways…

The Western gambit against Ukraine is a bust, a foolish miscalculation that was obvious from the start. All it accomplished was to reveal the pitiful dependence of our European allies on Russian oil and gas, leaving their economies good and truly scuppered without them.

https://dailyreckoning.com/epic-collapse-is-upon-us/

#122 A J on 08.11.22 at 2:13 pm

Getting real tired of these Trump supporters. He was right, he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and they’d shrug. I know it’s hard to hear, but you’re in a cult. Get out before it’s too late and you’ve lost all morals and ethics completely.

#123 NoName on 08.11.22 at 2:58 pm

#95 the jaguar on 08.11.22 at 8:57 am

As a self proclamed resident expert on balkons, jaguar is corect, it started over there in 1988. Problen will be if its spills to triangle looking country to the west of it.

Way back then i was old enough to remember events, but young enough to understand magnitude, gravity and depravity of events way back then, and what was about to come, everything went sideways and lets say down hill around 1988.

so here is beef summary how all that fiasco started, it was 1988…

There was this guy how sad;
We want bettter living standard and language in our schools.
Than that other guys sad;
Beating will continue untill moral improves.
And third and fourth guys sad;
We are not sendin our reserve police to participate in moral improvement.
Than first guy sad;
Oh ya, than we wont buy any of your products.
Than third and fourt guys sad;
We want some kind of confederation, where we have economic union, and buy the way are keeping our taxes to our self.
Than first guy sad;
No way that is gonna ever happend.
Than third and fourth guy sad;
We are leaving.
Than first guy sad;
I am not so sure about that.
And after this we are on mid to late 1990.

#124 NoName on 08.11.22 at 3:00 pm

but young enough to understand magnitude, gravity and depravity of events

should read

but young enough to not to understand magnitude, gravity and depravity of events

#125 jess on 08.11.22 at 3:20 pm

…”Last year, Mr. Trump’s lawyer unsuccessfully went to court to stop the National Archives from handing over a range of presidential records to the special congressional committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attacks on the Capitol

On Jan. 19, the day before he left office, Mr. Trump sent a letter to David S. Ferriero, the archivist of the United States, naming seven senior officials as his representatives to handle all future requests for presidential records. They included Mark Meadows, his chief of staff, and several White House lawyers, including Pat A. Cipollone and Patrick F. Philbin.
==========

” Espionage Act and which would seem to fit Trump’s case is Section 2071 of Title 18 in the U.S. code; under that law, an official who has custodial responsibility for the documents who then “willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies or destroys” the records could face up to three years in prison and could be barred from running for federal office again.”
To actually declassify Trump had to take that action before he left office. to actually declassify a document, the letter of the law requires actual follow through. DOJ and the White House conceded in FOIA litigation during the Trump years when he would tweet out declassification orders, or issue them via press statements. Unless he actually followed through with a declassification order that went to the agency with control over the document, the agency did not treat the statements as self-executing declassification orders and insisted the documents were still classified.

Trump Was Subpoenaed for Documents Months Before F.B.I. Searched His Home

#126 DJT on 08.11.22 at 3:58 pm

Yesterday a Federal Judge Ordered the DOJ to release the contents of the Secret Warrants by Monday.

Today fake news has gone into a complete meltdown.

Dont expect DOJ to release anything not heavily redacted, that would reveal them.

#127 Toronto Ghost Town on 08.11.22 at 4:19 pm

Buy in NY, VT, ME, MI, OH, PA etc and save yourselves hundreds of thousands or more. No brainer to spread your investment dollars around and collect American dollar rents through direct deposit into Canadian banks operating in the North east USA

#128 PeterfromCalgary on 08.11.22 at 4:24 pm

We have serious problems with the pandemic and Putin but nothing has fundamentally changed. We still have the genes of cave man, the institutions of the middle ages and the technology of the gods!

#129 NoName on 08.11.22 at 4:40 pm

#120 the Jaguar on 08.11.22 at 1:48 pm

–there is true hatred. Long before the current dust up.

Maybe because of what happened between 39 and 45, 150k people were prosecuted or executed for no good reason in that period alone, and than there is more after ww2 around 50k…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_repressions_of_Polish_citizens_(1939%E2%80%931946)#:~:text=The%20Soviet%20NKVD%20executed%20about,estimated%20as%20at%20least%20150%2C000.

and there is a bonus read
mouse and electricity and genes

Dias combined his interest in animal development with neurobiologist Kerry Ressler’s focus on the mechanisms of fear learning. They taught two groups of male mice to fear odors by zapping their feet with an electric shock every time they blew scented air into their cages. The experimental group became afraid of cherry blossoms with a hint of almond, and the control group feared alcohol.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/study-finds-that-fear-can-travel-quickly-through-generations-of-mice-dna/2013/12/07/94dc97f2-5e8e-11e3-bc56-c6ca94801fac_story.html

#130 I got no power on 08.11.22 at 5:05 pm

Garth has no power.

Waking a few blocks over to coffee house with wifi?

#131 jess on 08.11.22 at 5:22 pm

The Hidden Fees Making Your Bananas, and Everything Else, Cost More
by Michael Grabell, photography by John Francis Peters for ProPublica
June 16, 7 a.m. EDT

detention and demurrage

But the federal government said what’s happening with the additional detention and demurrage fees isn’t simple supply and demand. Instead, it said ocean carriers have taken advantage of the crisis and “contributed to the pain” by imposing billions of dollars in “purposeless” and illegal fees that violate the Shipping Act.

====== late fees?

With cargo ships focused on bringing stuff in, more containers arrived than were taken back. Empty containers started piling up. And ocean carriers were in a prime position to profit.
=============
Passed Senate (03/31/2022)

Ocean Shipping Reform Act of 2022

This bill revises requirements governing ocean shipping to increase the authority of the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) to promote the growth and development of U.S. exports through an ocean transportation system that is competitive, efficient, and economical. For example, the bill requires the FMC to (1) investigate complaints about detention and demurrage charges (i.e., late fees) charged by common ocean carriers, (2) determine whether those charges are reasonable, and (3) order refunds for unreasonable charges. It also prohibits common ocean carriers, marine terminal operators, or ocean transportation intermediaries from unreasonably refusing cargo space when available or resorting to other unfair or unjustly discriminatory methods.
https://www2.fmc.gov/readingroom/docs/21-09/21-09.InitialDecision.pdf/

https://www.propublica.org/article/ocean-freight-shipping-costs-inflation