All over everywhere

Not sure who invented ‘Frankenumber.’ Might have been this blog. If so, it was brilliant.

This term describes a fact which is not quite a statistic and at the same time is true but inaccurate. A Frankenumber in real estate is cleverly designed to be a truthful representation of an engineered reality. Released monthly, it is therefore not reflective of monthly activity, but rather a blended stat designed to accentuate certain things at the expense of transparency. Think push-up bra. Or those rubber pants bike guys wear.

Anyway, let’s go to Vancouver for today’s example.

The real estate cartel admits sales crashed and burned last month, but prices held steady. The ‘MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price’ (the FN) dipped a mere 2.2% in Greater Vancouver, it says, to $1,207400.

Really?

For starters, let’s muse on a housing price chart for the ever-popular Fraser Valley. Timbrrr…

Fraser Valley median sales price plops $200,000

The Van real estate board reports sales dumped 43% year/year and 23% month/month as higher mortgage rates took a huge bite out of buyer confidence and finances. “Homebuyers are exercising more caution in today’s market in response to rising interest rates and inflationary concerns,” it says. “This allowed the selection of homes for sale to increase and prices to edge down in the region over the last three months.” No guff. So stop masking the truth.

Here are actual average sale prices in the city and LM, provided by progressive agent Jesse Kleine. There is no “2.2%” in sight, is there? These are the numbers that matter – the change in price from the February peak to last week.

DETACHED:
Fraser Valley: -21%, -$365k
Greater Vancouver: -14%, -$275k
Surrey: -18%, -$337k
South Surrey: -17%, -$352k
Cloverdale: -22%, -$390k
North Delta: -25%, -$435k (ouch!)
Langley:-21%, -$364k
Abbotsford: -23%, -$339k
Chilliwack: -20%, -$217k
Mission:-29%, -$390k (Ouch!)
Maple Ridge:-19%, -$297k
Tsawn + Ladner: -14%, -$237k
Coquitlam: -13%, -$243k
Burnaby: -14%, -$307k
East Van: -17%, -$375k
North Van: -13%, -$300k

TOWNHOUSES:
Fraser Valley: -14%, -$132k
Greater Vancouver: -14%, -$158k
Surrey: -15%, -$149k
Langley: -15%, -$147k
Abbotsford: -21%, -$183k
Maple Ridge: -20%, -$182k
Vancouver: -11%, -$173k

CONDOS:
Fraser Valley: -7%, -$38k
Greater Vancouver: -6%, -$47k
Surrey: -9%, -$54k
Langley: -11%, -$65k
Abbotsford: -13%, -$65k
Chilliwack: -18%, -$82k
Burnaby: -8%, -$62k
Richmond: -10%, -$69k
East Van: -5%, -$32k
Van West: -6%, -$54k

In the Fraser Valley only 10% of homes listed for sale sold last month. So your odds of not getting an offer were nine out of ten. “There is no hope,” says Kleine, “with a $75k decline every month since March.”

His forecast now: “I think we’ll see further declines in August, with detached prices catching themselves in September (seasonality). Quite possibly a m/m gain for Sep. Then sliding into late fall / winter which will be ugly for all property types in all areas.”

Finally, today, let’s contrast and compare this with the GTA.

Did I mention there’s no place to hide?

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. Click to enlarge.

About the picture: “Just sitting outside here on the left coast with this retired champ,” writes Johnny. “That makes us both retired but only one champ … so far without a care. We took your advice and are sitting pretty with a diversified Turner Investments portfolio. Let’s me sleep at night and ‘Cole’ doesn’t seem to give a hoot. He has other things on his mind now that he is retired. We should be so lucky … thanx for the great advice over all the years.”

133 comments ↓

#1 David Landry on 08.03.22 at 4:45 pm

Did anyone else have their baby pictures on cbc news today or was that just the big g?

Give me a break. I was cute. – Garth

#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 08.03.22 at 4:47 pm

Tornadoes heading for all of cottage country, and it will only continue.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/08/03/tornado-warning-barrie-ontario-thunderstorm-weather/

This is NOT a Frankenumber forecast!

For the rest of the season, to all you inbred southern hillbillies

Just.

Stay.

Home.

#3 Prince Polo on 08.03.22 at 4:49 pm

The only place to hide is in loser renterhood. A magical place where no Frankenumber may penetrate.

#4 Caffeine Monkey on 08.03.22 at 4:49 pm

WAIT wait just a minute here. Do you mean that real estate prices… can… go… down?

#5 TurnerNation on 08.03.22 at 4:53 pm

#86 Flop… on 08.02.22 at 8:57 pm
https://news.bchousing.org/bc-housings-ceo-announces-his-retirement/

^^ Jaysus. This reads like a report from a Second World Country. A report say from lawless Brazil or Mexico.
Life in our fetid and crowded “UN Smart Cities”. What our tax farm masters have in mind for this Former First World country.

On this note — anecdotally, well Reddit Toronto — the hold time when you call 911 is oftentimes 5-7 minutes. Factor 10-15 minutes anew for an ambulance arrival.
In my area a taxi cab or Uber will arrive within 3-6 minutes. Do-it-your-self medical system.

But all these years of forced government “Rules” and “Mandates” were to make us SO healthy!???

.Unexplained high death counts in N.B. concerning, health minister acknowledges (cbc.ca)

.About 25 Ontario hospitals scaled back operations on weekend due to staff shortages, union says (cbc.ca)

.Toronto General Hospital under critical care bed alert amid staff shortages (cp24.com)

.Ontario Health CEO admits system is under ‘tremendous strain’ and talks about 5 challenges rocking hospitals (torontostar.com)

.’Infuriating’: Alberta’s healthcare workers outraged over Hinshaw’s bonus amid health cuts (edmonton.citynews.ca)

#6 The General on 08.03.22 at 4:54 pm

The Vancouver Real Estate Cartel are good at some things. Like lying through their teeth, for instance. There will be no repercussions for their blatant fibbery either. I hope some of these lowlifes read this, and feel shame, but sociopaths have no remorse for their actions. And Audi’s are overpriced junk, btw. Losers.

#7 Ballingsford on 08.03.22 at 4:55 pm

It must suck buying a home at peak and losing a few hundred thousand grand already.

#8 B from Q on 08.03.22 at 4:56 pm

We have Frankenumbers everywhere and for every agenda.
Inflation rate, efficacy, effectiveness to name a few.
Reader be ware and do the due diligence.

#9 Nick on 08.03.22 at 4:56 pm

.
The lower Brainland area of GVR is full of rich folks. Buy there ASAP to live quality life and see year over year significant property value appreciation. Lower Brainland is key to getting rich fast.

#10 Ian on 08.03.22 at 4:56 pm

Nothing gets me more angry than the real estate industry and their corruption. But, they did state “ 2.3 per cent decrease compared to June 2022” in the July report. So again, month over month, the data provided from Mr. Kleine is Feb peak to current. Two very different timeframes obviously.

#11 Flop… on 08.03.22 at 5:02 pm

#123 Wrk.dover on 08.03.22 at 7:45 am
#107 IHCTD9 on 08.02.22 at 11:28 pm
You’d be better served getting a little knowledge of the topics you choose to discuss before you do so.
_______________________
How’s that personal daily transportation system you planned to run on the gasifier fueled by free wood, as per hundreds of your past postings here working out for you thus far?
Will your libertarian regulated flight system be a branch of that?

//////////////:/::////////////

Well, the New Brunswick discussion started off pretty good, then went off the rails a bit.

I’d have to look back at the tape, but I think during all that I got called bi-polar.

Is that because I can’t decide which hemisphere to retire in…

M48BC

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.22 at 5:03 pm

What did Churchill say?
“This isn’t the end, or the beginning.
It’s the beginning of the end.”
Prices dropping like credit scores.

Those poor Realtors.
Gonna have to get second jobs.
I hear Safeway is hiring bagboys part time.
Who knows.
Maybe they can sell a condo to a coworker…….

#13 Love_The_Cottage on 08.03.22 at 5:04 pm

In the Fraser Valley only 10% of homes listed for sale sold last month. So your odds of not getting an offer were nine out of ten.
__________
Some may think it’s a small point, but you undermine your argument with facts not present. You’re chances of ACCEPTING an offer are only 10%. We don’t know what percentage of listings RECEIVED an offer. Probably not much higher than 10%, but it’s a slippery slope between CNBC and FoxNews when facts are misstated.

That was trite. – Garth

#14 Sail Away on 08.03.22 at 5:11 pm

Special for blogdog DC:

Just thought I’d give a quick Frankenumber update on last Monday and Tuesday’s home runs, which are currently up an average of +8%. In a week. Also TSLA +20% in the same time. Bounce cat, bounce.

That’s the way it’s done, bro. Proper financial aggression, properly applied.

And free for you. Because I care.

#15 I’m stupid on 08.03.22 at 5:11 pm

I spoke to a big builder today and he said that they haven’t sold a single home in 4 months. It makes sense since they have a bunch of buyers on the hook for 400-500k more per house in the last phase. They don’t want to drop their prices for the new phase because if they do it will cause more buyers to walk away. All the 200k construction workers will be begging for work next year. So if you’re looking to build new or renovated deals will abound next year.

#16 The General on 08.03.22 at 5:11 pm

According to C.B.C news reporter Chris Arsenault today, 1 in 4 recent houses sold in the U.S. are bought by institutional investors. A larger share than ever before. Deep pocketed investors such as hedge funds, private equity giants and pension managers are HUNTING for stable assets to offset inflation and volatile stock markets. Greed know’s no bounds for some entities, I suppose.

Why is that greedy? – Garth

#17 NomoreT2 on 08.03.22 at 5:13 pm

Off topic I think
Garth… your following needs to know your opinion
If PP wins the conservative nomination are we in more years of rule by photo op king t2

#18 KuatoLives on 08.03.22 at 5:15 pm

Come buy a house in sunny Kelowna where we were just named crime capital of Canada!!

https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/378413/Kelowna-s-crime-rate-surges-to-the-highest-in-Canada

[302] days without a natural catastrophe!!

#19 renter in Surrey on 08.03.22 at 5:15 pm

Am I looking at wrong zolo.ca website?
All I see only $5K – $10K reductions on $750K TH
Same TH that were around $350K when this blog started.

#20 Doing my Part on 08.03.22 at 5:17 pm

Frankenumbers or not, Bitcoin is going to zero.
Get the hell out while you can, what are you waiting for.

#21 Steven on 08.03.22 at 5:18 pm

#7 Ballingsford

It must suck not having a clue that you haven’t lost a thing on anything in this world that you bought recently unless you SELL
at a lower price.

And no, I sold a year ago.

#22 The General on 08.03.22 at 5:19 pm

Unverified rumor: Chinese suppliers have suspended product and parts deliveries to Apple, which would cripple it moving forward. I guess closing OUR factories, and moving them half a world away, wasn’t such a good idea. But SOME people made out like bandits. Oh well.

#23 Penny Henny on 08.03.22 at 5:22 pm

Did anyone else have their baby pictures on cbc news today or was that just the big g?

Give me a break. I was cute. – Garth
//////////////

Was.

#24 The General on 08.03.22 at 5:22 pm

# 16- Why is that greedy? – Garth

Read the article and decide for yourself. Just my opinion.

#25 Nihilist on 08.03.22 at 5:24 pm

Let the real estate prices collapse some more.

You know that Cons are hypocrites when Poilievre blames Tiff for printing money, but when Tiff hikes rates and affects Poilievre real estate investments, Tiff gets blamed again!

Let the real estate prices fall, faller, fallest! Haha!

I’m laughing at those losses that the Hoomers and foreign investors like Zillow and Blackrock are incurring right now. Haha!

There is no future under Trudeau and Poilievre wants you to pay him rent in a rentier conservative economy.

#26 Dave on 08.03.22 at 5:25 pm

They sure aren’t dropping by 20 percent on Vancouver Island. Maybe it takes a while for the rate increases to hit? Or are the buyers just delisional?

#27 SAGI on 08.03.22 at 5:29 pm

#14 Sail Away on 08.03.22 at 5:11 pm

Mrmmble mrmmrm mrm.

SAGI

#28 Shawn on 08.03.22 at 5:30 pm

Greed?

#16 The General on 08.03.22 at 5:11 pm
According to C.B.C news reporter Chris Arsenault today, 1 in 4 recent houses sold in the U.S. are bought by institutional investors. A larger share than ever before. Deep pocketed investors such as hedge funds, private equity giants and pension managers are HUNTING for stable assets to offset inflation and volatile stock markets. Greed know’s no bounds for some entities, I suppose.

Why is that greedy? – Garth

****************************
What’s wrong with greed? Greed for taking from others unfairly such as by force is clearly bad.

But why is greed to have more by earning more bad?

Most people earn more by doing more.

Out entire capitalist system which provides such tremendous abundance and comfort is built on the basic human fact that almost all humans are in fact “greedy” for more and are willing to work and create more.

All hail greed!

#29 Penny Henny on 08.03.22 at 5:33 pm

#16 The General on 08.03.22 at 5:11 pm
According to C.B.C news reporter Chris Arsenault today, 1 in 4 recent houses sold in the U.S. are bought by institutional investors. A larger share than ever before. Deep pocketed investors such as hedge funds, private equity giants and pension managers are HUNTING for stable assets to offset inflation and volatile stock markets. Greed know’s no bounds for some entities, I suppose.

Why is that greedy? – Garth

///////////////

I dunno. Why do you accuse sellers seeking the highest sale price greedy?
Or For Sale By Owner greedy?

#30 IHCTD9 on 08.03.22 at 5:33 pm

Beyond Bunnypatch it’s the same. Mucho tanko. Glad to see it happen. Maybe Mr. market might save us from Trudeau’s inebriated fiscal hands-sitting yet. The sooner I can get back to jeering at the GTA serfs, the better. For now I watch the swan dive, and keep my mouth shut at work.

#31 The General on 08.03.22 at 5:35 pm

Isn’t it strange that J P Morgan’s metals desk made astonishingly consistent annual profits between $109 million and $234 million between 2008 and 2018? Oh, right, their former head of precious metals and 2 others are on trial for conspiring to manipulate gold and silver markets. Otherwise known as spoofing. They’re the fall guys, in my opinion. All for shiny rocks that aren’t real money. Joe Biden might quip: C’mon, Man!

#32 The General on 08.03.22 at 5:43 pm

Unverified report: China halts exports of sand to Tiawan. No more chips for you, they’re made out of silica, silly rabbit.

#33 islander on 08.03.22 at 5:46 pm

“Nanaimo Real Estate Sales at 10-Year Low for July 2022”

https://www.nanaimore.com/blog/nanaimo-real-estate-market-july-2022/

1890 active listings/ 613 price reductions

Sales drying up….prices falling….property taxes and mortgage rates “sky high”…..OUCH

#34 ElGatoNeroYVR on 08.03.22 at 5:47 pm

#19 renter in Surrey on 08.03.22 at 5:15 pm
Am I looking at wrong zolo.ca website?
All I see only $5K – $10K reductions on $750K TH
Same TH that were around $350K when this blog started.
===========
Nope . The truth conveniently ignored is that we are now in the early discovery phase where those that must sell get wiped out and others that bought a long time ago cash out at still a significant profit. Hence the 10% sales to listing ratio . The next 6-9 months will really define the direction and the floor of the market . Those that don’t need to sell won’t just yet.
In Surrey the likely impact will be more rentals for maybe a better price , though it could go the other way as well; in a competitive market nobody wants to deal with less than perfect tenants so I suspect a few will get evicted just to make the sale more appealing to the buyer.

#35 Alberta Boy on 08.03.22 at 5:48 pm

I am so glad I don’t have to use the biker shorts trick. Also glad I did not purchase a home in the GTA in February.

#36 Doing my Part on 08.03.22 at 5:56 pm

Victoria on Vancouver Island, Real Estate update from a long term multi-property owner.
-Many new listings coming to market
-Few sales
-Many substantial price reductions in the neighbourhood or 5% plus, still not selling.
It is not different this time, Victoria is following the other highly inflated markets, down, down, down.
I predict a lot more new listings and price reductions after the summer, when everyone got the lockdown out of their system and economic reality starts to sink in.
Be patient, prices are sticky on the way down.

#37 IHCTD9 on 08.03.22 at 6:01 pm

#11 Flop… on 08.03.22 at 5:02 pm
#123 Wrk.dover on 08.03.22 at 7:45 am
#107 IHCTD9 on 08.02.22 at 11:28 pm
You’d be better served getting a little knowledge of the topics you choose to discuss before you do so.
_______________________
How’s that personal daily transportation system you planned to run on the gasifier fueled by free wood, as per hundreds of your past postings here working out for you thus far?
Will your libertarian regulated flight system be a branch of that?

//////////////:/::////////////

Well, the New Brunswick discussion started off pretty good, then went off the rails a bit.

I’d have to look back at the tape, but I think during all that I got called bi-polar.

Is that because I can’t decide which hemisphere to retire in…

M48BC
—-

Separate convo Flop. I disagreed with Wrk’d on some airplane stuff, and it was ka-freakin-boom and what else is new.

We did agree that NB might not be the best choice for you though. That’s sayin’ something.

#38 Søren Angst on 08.03.22 at 6:01 pm

The Orca’s, Forest Primeval and Valhalla Gods gave it their best shot, but alas and in the end:

CB Gravity

prevailed in the Lower Brainland.

And the CB fun has just begun.

——————

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz

“Those Poor Realtors” – I think you have it.

GTA Realtor commissions in July will probably be 1/2 of what they were in Feb, -$300M:

https://twitter.com/daniel_foch/status/1554531946444869633

or as Garth would say

Timbrrr…

I mean, you know, a lot of families are going to have problems making ends meet and put meat on the table.

Add in Inflation and the above, I think, by the end of the year is going to get TRAGIC. Truly sad.

#39 mj on 08.03.22 at 6:02 pm

This has been the biggest and fastest decline in decades, but seems slow moving. More to come until the bank of Canada stops increasing rates.

#40 ogdoad on 08.03.22 at 6:04 pm

Garth, your GG had the best name ever…

OAN, what does a lemming do when it realizes its too late?

Og

#41 The real Kip (Ret) on 08.03.22 at 6:05 pm

Canadian real estate market is about to freeze up. Buyers can’t afford and sellers refuse to lower price.

#42 Philco on 08.03.22 at 6:06 pm

#24 The General on 08.03.22 at 5:22 pm
# 16- Why is that greedy? – Garth

Read the article and decide for yourself. Just my opinion.
———————————
Its called a free market and just business.

#43 Søren Angst on 08.03.22 at 6:16 pm

Overview Wealth Stats out today where they break up the population into quintiles.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220803/dq220803a-eng.htm?HPA=1

Lots in there but this one chart STUCK OUT to me:

Average household net saving by income quintile
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220803/cg-a003-eng.htm

Where the bottom 2 quintiles, 40% FORTY PERCENT of Canadians, have had a NEGATIVE HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATE since 1st Quarter 2020.

And who, per the above chart, is getting hit the hardest?

65 years and over
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220803/cg-a004-eng.htm

I have said this before about the 65+ crowd, ASSET RICH, CASH FLOW POOR…why HELOC’s and the like are rising by the month.

Still, if you look at the Wealth Balance Sheet for Canadians (x 1,000,000)
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610066001

Total assets $18,917,148
Total liabilities $2,725,450

Net worth (wealth) $16,191,698

——————

THAT’S one well healed crowd.

Go 🍁 Go!

#44 ArriveCAN on 08.03.22 at 6:20 pm

ArriveCAN has a 4.5 star review from over half a million reviewers?

Really?

I think it’s time to investigate the government of Canada for buying reviews…maybe?

#45 Wrk.dover on 08.03.22 at 6:21 pm

#143 IHCTD9 on 08.03.22 at 2:38 pm
#123 Wrk.dover on 08.03.22 at 7:45 am
#107 IHCTD9 on 08.02.22 at 11:28 pm
You’d be better served getting a little knowledge of the topics you choose to discuss before you do so.
_______________________

How’s that personal daily transportation system you planned to run on the gasifier fueled by free wood, as per hundreds of your past postings here working out for you thus far?

Will your libertarian regulated flight system be a branch of that?
____

The wood is heating my house instead.

Are we done discussing how unfathomably expensive a privately owned float plane is to run now?
____________________________

Sounds like a plan!

Meanwhile, the process of gasification you portrayed here involved burning the wood to create enough energy in byproduct gas to go pick up the next load of wood and power your daily commute. Seems the house could be have been heated seasonally at the same time the wood was burned to do so. But lets drop that discussion too.

So, you’ll simplify your commute with that plane now?

#46 Bezengy on 08.03.22 at 6:27 pm

Haven’t changed a bit.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6539554

#47 Søren Angst on 08.03.22 at 6:28 pm

OFF TOPIC

Apparently not all NEW Canadians that thrilled with “President” TRUDEAU:

https://twitter.com/brokofoot/status/1554567182461374465

—————-

I liked the Pyongyang reference best.

#48 Russ on 08.03.22 at 6:29 pm

Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 08.03.22 at 4:47 pm

Tornadoes heading for all of cottage country, and it will only continue.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/08/03/tornado-warning-barrie-ontario-thunderstorm-weather/

This is NOT a Frankenumber forecast!

===================

Q: What does a tornado in Waterloo, a hurricane in Louisiana and a divorce in Cedar have in common?

A: Somebody is gonna lose a trailer.

Cheers, R

#49 Wrk.dover on 08.03.22 at 6:31 pm

#11 Flop… on 08.03.22 at 5:02 pm
I’d have to look back at the tape, but I think during all that I got called bi-polar.
____________________________

Your wit is as sharp as that of Furz’s pal Ponze.

Ever considered a career in accounting?

#50 Flop… on 08.03.22 at 6:37 pm

Flop Drops.

Can you get a 2 year old house in Vancouver for 1.2 million.

Just like the one I put up yesterday, these guys might be playing silly buggers, but we’ll put it on The Flop Files and see what happens.

The details…

6174 Bruce St, Vancouver

Asking 1.2 million

Originally asking 1.89

Age of house, 2 years

Size of lot,0.07 acre, slightly smaller than standard .

Paid 975k, then developed, by the looks of it, they’ll have to try and put some meat back on the bone…

M48BC

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2713417/6174-BRUCE-STREET-Vancouver-BC/

#51 Philco on 08.03.22 at 6:38 pm

#20 Doing my Part on 08.03.22 at 5:17 pm
Frankenumbers or not, Bitcoin is going to zero.
Get the hell out while you can, what are you waiting for.
———————————
LOL
Bitcrap hit $84k high and a low of $27k now $29k….
And was just hacked for $200mil.
I never put a Nickle in that ponzi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rX7wtNOkuHo

#52 Steven Rowlandson on 08.03.22 at 6:49 pm

Volume of sales is not a proper indicator of affordability.
It is an indicator of financial risk taking and foolishness.
An affordability indicator would be whether or not home prices conform to the 3 years pay rule based on minimum wage for one person. If prices conform to such an indicator then home prices are affordable and non genocidal. Currently no home price in Canada is affordable or non genocidal. Remember folks real estate is just a place to live and not a harmless investment.

#53 yvr_lurker on 08.03.22 at 6:49 pm

#16 The General on 08.03.22 at 5:11 pm
According to C.B.C news reporter Chris Arsenault today, 1 in 4 recent houses sold in the U.S. are bought by institutional investors. A larger share than ever before. Deep pocketed investors such as hedge funds, private equity giants and pension managers are HUNTING for stable assets to offset inflation and volatile stock markets. Greed know’s no bounds for some entities, I suppose.

Why is that greedy? – Garth
——–

Perhaps Shawn does not see the end game. If the trend of institutional investors buying up housing stock increases, they will compete and outbid local citizens and then drive up rents to some uniformly high levels. There will no longer be a discount on rents for living in small towns or the maritimes where high-paying jobs are scarce. Prices will be set by Bay street. This is a possible nightmare scenario for families who need decent, affordable, rentals.

#54 Mattl on 08.03.22 at 6:52 pm

Not surprised about Mission. We looked there 6 years ago and while there are some nice areas – Hatzic Bench is a great spot if you can find an older home with land – the prices were mind blowing. 1MM then for a basement walkout on a 4k lot, and while I haven’t followed have to imagine these hit 1.5+.

Have to think peak to trough in a lot of these places will be in the 50% range, which will be a 2008 / US style crash. Very hard to believe we that trillions in RE equity can be wiped out with no negative consequences for the economy. Sure most people won’t lose their homes, but consumer spending is about to get smashed. Same store / retail sales are already negative when you account for inflation, wait until the fall numbers and Q3/Q4 earnings and all the layoffs that will proceed / follow poor earnings.

Stuff is about to get real.

#55 Reality is stark on 08.03.22 at 6:59 pm

A realtor is just a heartbreaker with a .44.
They’re gonna tear your world apart.
Unlike a financial advisor who has years of training, a shill is just a shill.

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.22 at 6:59 pm

@#49 Wrk.dover
“Your wit is as sharp as that of Furz’s pal Ponze.”
++++
The scary reality?
Ponzie isnt trying to be funny…..

#57 Stephladimir Harputin on 08.03.22 at 7:02 pm

The toddler picture from that CBC story is a dead ringer for an insolent, disobedient, diaper-pooping traitor that I was smart enough to turf from my caucus.

That’s my MFU for today.

#58 IHCTD9 on 08.03.22 at 7:03 pm

#45 Wrk.dover on 08.03.22 at 6:21 pm

Sounds like a plan!

Meanwhile, the process of gasification you portrayed here involved burning the wood to create enough energy in byproduct gas to go pick up the next load of wood and power your daily commute. Seems the house could be have been heated seasonally at the same time the wood was burned to do so. But lets drop that discussion too.

So, you’ll simplify your commute with that plane now?
————-

Uh, it sounds like you might not have a very good grasp on how gasification works.

No, I won’t be commuting to work via airplane. There are many very good reasons for this, not the least of which is that privately owned aircraft are “unfathomably expensive to run”.

#59 Reality Check on 08.03.22 at 7:03 pm

26 Dave
They sure aren’t dropping by 20 percent on Vancouver Island. Maybe it takes a while for the rate increases to hit? Or are the buyers just delisional?
——————-
I vote for delusional.

People come here for a summer vacation and see paradise.

Then they buy a 1.5 million bungalow and move here and see the real Victoria.

2 seasons – summer for 2 months than soggy overcast fall/spring for 10 months.

Prolific Homelessness and petty crime.

And don’t forget us smug, ultra woke, self centered locals.

And $140 each way to get off the island on BC Ferries.

I’m aiming for summers in Calgary and winters in Costa Rica or Mexico.

But come buy my Victoria home for 2 million and fund my retirement.

#60 Ballingsford on 08.03.22 at 7:04 pm

#21 Steven on 08.03.22 at 5:18 pm
#7 Ballingsford

It must suck not having a clue that you haven’t lost a thing on anything in this world that you bought recently unless you SELL
at a lower price.

And no, I sold a year ago.
****
You didn’t buy at the peak, around Feb 2022. Anyway good for you!
I agree, those who bought then didn’t lose unless they sell when housing recovers in about 14 years.
Same as a B&D portfolio, that’s already recovering, and you hung in there.

Paper loss in real estate and the market are similar but different.

#61 Quintilian on 08.03.22 at 7:05 pm

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.22 at 5:03 pm

“Those poor Realtors.
Gonna have to get second jobs.
I hear Safeway is hiring bagboys part time.”

I don’t know Crowdie, if that is an option, the skill set required may be a barrier to entry to that position.

But more importantly to note:

There are almost 13,000 of them, and last month there were only 1887 sales in Metro Van.

Many of them did not get a paycheque, and they haven’t for several months now.

#62 When the Whip Comes Down on 08.03.22 at 7:06 pm

Victoria on Van Isle is down something like 13% from FEB 2022 peak on SFD according to some analysts. More to come over the next few months going into the latter half of the year. Don’t think all pandemic gains will be wiped off but certainly a sizeable chunk.

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.22 at 7:06 pm

@#149 Keith
“A Safeway clerk with seniority could rack up the overtime and make more than a teacher.”
+++
I worked with a Safeway baker until Safeway crushed the Bread Bakery portion of the union in the early 90’s.
He would work the night shift at Safeway and then come in to work with us for the day shift.
He worked there for 30 plus years and had 12 weeks paid holidays.
The guy was rolling in dough.
Safeway moved all the mass baking to Alberta and trucked it in.
And then Safeway USA decided to crush the union.
Buyouts, layoffs, strikes etc.
Then?
Safeway Canada was sold off to Sobeys.
From what I see.
A lot of full time staff have left

#64 Habitt on 08.03.22 at 7:09 pm

#15 no construction worker anywhere makes 200k period. I got 40 years in the trades so speak from experience. Please explain. Sigh

#65 Philco on 08.03.22 at 7:12 pm

Please watch!
The guys sounds like me…. I’ve been preaching this for a long time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMG4kuEN_kM
Good god we have an idiot running this country.

#66 Cici on 08.03.22 at 7:15 pm

Where can we find the actual sales stats for Quebec City?

As far as I can tell, there haven’t been any price drops here and the local newspaper says if any are to occur, it won’t be for at least two years.

#67 Søren Angst on 08.03.22 at 7:15 pm

OFF TOPIC

Italia reporting record numbers driving to Italia down the Brenner Pass (Austrians, Germans and other really Cold EU Countries like Canada):

https://www.rainews.it/articoli/2022/08/lautostrada-del-brennero-torna-al-traffico-pre-covid-egli-incidenti-al-livello-pi-basso-di-sempre-93b14fee-a8b3-4a6c-b03c-aa7cdf806c65.html

Funny thing, accident rates down.

My Theory on those bad drivers:

Covid Killed Them

#68 Leftover on 08.03.22 at 7:16 pm

Toronto down 16%, Vancouver down 14%; eek!

But as memory serves, we’re only halfway there.

Just be glad you’re not in K-town:

https://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/378413/Kelowna-s-crime-rate-surges-to-the-highest-in-Canada#378413

#69 WTF on 08.03.22 at 7:20 pm

#41 “Canadian real estate market is about to freeze up. Buyers can’t afford and sellers refuse to lower price.”

—————————————————————–
Uhh no. Delusional thinking. This has been explained to death. Were you napping? Its already happening per the chart provided.

Sure, on the planet Kip people will hunker down and not sell till the market settles at insane high levels.

Here on earth? divorce, death, moving, need to upsize/downsize. requires a listing and more importantly, a sale.

As the sales drop, prices drop, then the overall market drops. More listings hit the market. Buyers lowball, Panic sets in, more listings. More panic. Then Bam the Tiffster rolls out 3/4% increase after Labor Day.

Just the beginning….

#70 The Original Jake on 08.03.22 at 7:24 pm

#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 08.03.22 at 4:47 pm
Tornadoes heading for all of cottage country, and it will only continue.

Oh gees, does this mean it’s your last post?

#71 billy on 08.03.22 at 7:32 pm

“They sure aren’t dropping by 20 percent on Vancouver Island. Maybe it takes a while for the rate increases to hit? Or are the buyers just delisional?”

This gets little coverage here but Victoria median single family home prices have almost hit crash territory. The average single family home median price dropped 17 percent from the peak set in March and condos are down 11 percent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l238g-WEJgw

#72 rampant inflation on 08.03.22 at 7:32 pm

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who makes $422,900 per year – and scrambled out of dozens of investments last year shortly before the Fed finalized strict new limits on policymakers’ portfolios…

During an interview with Reuters broadcast live on Twitter spaces, Daly said: “I don’t feel the pain of inflation anymore. I see prices rising but I have enough… I sometimes balk at the price of things, but I don’t find myself in a space where I have to make tradeoffs because I have enough, and many Americans have enough.”

WOW… just WOW!!

#73 Søren Angst on 08.03.22 at 7:34 pm

#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY!

FFS quit whining ya BIG BABY.

Kawartha Lakes, ON 3,059 km²
# of Tourists = 5

Venezia, IT 414.6 km²
# of Tourists = about the Population of Canada
(not incl. the Beavers or Orca’s)

If you were Venezia, then you’d have something to b!itch about…but ya don’t.

You haven’t a clue of what being trampled by “I TURISTI” is like.

NOT.A.CLUE.

#74 Phylis on 08.03.22 at 7:49 pm

#23 Penny Henny on 08.03.22 at 5:22 pm
Did anyone else have their baby pictures on cbc news today or was that just the big g?

Give me a break. I was cute. – Garth
//////////////

Was.
Xxxxx
Time to release the pec pic?

#75 TurnerNation on 08.03.22 at 7:59 pm

Gee never saw this coming lol. Build Back Better/I will own nothing and be happy yes?
A reminder that this country no longer exists (if it did) and our rulers exist only to fulfull the fill of the global mega corps. Mandates, and all.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/real-estate-investment-firms-financialization-housing-1.6538087
“‘A new phenomenon’: Big investors eye Canada’s home market, ReMax president says
1 in 4 recent houses sold in the U.S. bought by institutional investors, a ‘larger share than ever before’


— Another Former First World Country. Spain.

https://elpais-com.translate.goog/sociedad/2022-08-01/el-exceso-de-muertes-este-julio-quintuplica-la-media-de-ese-mes-y-no-solo-por-el-calor-y-la-covid.html?_x_tr_sl=es&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
“This July, 9,687 more people than expected have died in Spain. That has been the “excess mortality”, an estimate of the total deaths in a certain period over those expected. “

#76 TheDood on 08.03.22 at 7:59 pm

#71 billy on 08.03.22 at 7:32 pm
“They sure aren’t dropping by 20 percent on Vancouver Island. Maybe it takes a while for the rate increases to hit? Or are the buyers just delisional?”

This gets little coverage here but Victoria median single family home prices have almost hit crash territory. The average single family home median price dropped 17 percent from the peak set in March and condos are down 11 percent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l238g-WEJgw
_______________________________________

It’s the same delusional thinking here in the LM. It’ll never happen here! Well, guess what? It’s happening.

#77 Doing my Part on 08.03.22 at 8:03 pm

Health Care in Victoria.
I had an opportunity recently to make an observation,
My Cat has better access to health care than I do.
Thanks NDP, Liberals.

#78 Flop… on 08.03.22 at 8:03 pm

Flop Drops.

Mission, no problem getting something around 950k

Abbotsford, seen some go starting with an 8.

Chilliwack, documented one on here that sold for 627k, you had to pay $140 a month for maintenance, from memory.

Let’s see what this one went for with no caveat.

The details…

48183 Yale Rd, Chilliwack.

Original ask 939k

Just sold for 765k

Nearly quarter of an acre.

Someone purchased it for 630k back in late 2017, they probably could have gotten close to ask if they had listed back in February/March.

Save a fair bit on house, but I guess it depends where your desk is.

Google maps tells me it’s 102 kilometres from Chilliwack to downtown Vancouver.

Someone going to have to build one of those wood gasification system thingy’s for their car…

M48BC

https://www.zealty.ca/mls-R2688769/48183-YALE-ROAD-Chilliwack-BC/

#79 Ballingsford on 08.03.22 at 8:04 pm

#2 Cottagers STAY THE HELL AWAY! on 08.03.22 at 4:47 pm
Tornadoes heading for all of cottage country, and it will only continue.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/08/03/tornado-warning-barrie-ontario-thunderstorm-weather/

This is NOT a Frankenumber forecast!

For the rest of the season, to all you inbred southern hillbillies

Just.

Stay.

Home.
*******

Where have you been? Just get out of the Pen?

#80 Philco on 08.03.22 at 8:13 pm

#53 yvr_lurker on 08.03.22 at 6:49 pm
——————————-
So who do you think owns a lot of apt building’s now? Many REITs out there run fine.
Rents are more a function of supply and demand.
That’s is why rents are not dropping like RE. Not enough units.
Corps / developer’s build these and own many. If they didn’t who would?
Rent increases are controlled and you can’t kick your renters out.

#81 jess on 08.03.22 at 8:20 pm

demon cures?

…”Provincial government funding to a Saskatoon Christian school must be frozen in light of a series of abuse allegations, says the leader of the NDP Opposition.”I’m heartbroken to think this was the experience that shaped these young lives,” Carla Beck said Wednesday.

Some former students of Saskatoon’s Christian Centre Academy, now called Legacy Christian Academy, are going even further. They are demanding the school be permanently closed.

“I think it should be shut down — 100 per cent,” said former student Jillian Kudryk.

In a CBC News story published Tuesday, nearly a dozen former students spoke publicly for the first time, sharing stories of abuse that included spankings with large, wooden paddles that left them bruised and limping. Others spoke of solitary confinement, coercion and traumatizing rituals such as exorcisms to “cure” students thought to be possessed by demons.
Former students of the Christian Centre Academy, now called Legacy Christian Academy, say all government subsidies and tax breaks for the school and adjacent Mile Two Church must be halted.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/freeze-funding-for-sask-christian-school-facing-sickening-abuse-allegations-opposition-students-1.6540118

#82 Don Guillermo on 08.03.22 at 8:46 pm

#59 Reality Check on 08.03.22 at 7:03 pm

I vote for delusional.

People come here for a summer vacation and see paradise.

Then they buy a 1.5 million bungalow and move here and see the real Victoria.

2 seasons – summer for 2 months than soggy overcast fall/spring for 10 months.

Prolific Homelessness and petty crime.

And don’t forget us smug, ultra woke, self centered locals.

And $140 each way to get off the island on BC Ferries.

I’m aiming for summers in Calgary and winters in Costa Rica or Mexico.
#######
Exactamente. What’s really ironic is all the VI gringos that winter in the same place I do and mostly fly through YYC. Better connection than YVR.

#83 dosouth on 08.03.22 at 9:06 pm

So while applying for a HELOC to be added to our existing mortgage the financial advisor was “stunned” as she put it. Our house was assessed in July last year at 90% complete and so taxed at that rate.

We appealed as it was only 72% according to us and eventually we won out and assessment for 2021 was reduced. We got a reduction in property taxes, at least for this year.

The advisor stated the obvious, “Your house is of less value for your HELOC…” Although it is still worth more than we need for our application, she didn’t get that if we sold tomorrow we’d still make more than it cost to build. Saving hundreds in taxes for a year…..I thought she was an advisor. Guess not.

#84 Adam on 08.03.22 at 9:07 pm

Nice post today. Thanks for the stats. Fraser Valley is absolutely cooked. What idiots ever thought it would be a great idea to buy a million dollar townhouse in chilliwack… wow.

#85 Ponnaps on 08.03.22 at 9:08 pm

Mississauga you beauty holding strong

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.22 at 9:26 pm

@#61 Quintillian
“There are almost 13,000 of them, and last month there were only 1887 sales in Metro Van.”
+++
Imagine a world where people could get real sales numbers without the spin.
Where people could view a house without a commission salesman holding the keys to the door.
Where the history of the house or condo was freely accessible to all.

Lets keep those interest rates climbing until housing is affordable for the bread and butter population and not greedy salesman pandering to speccers and flippers.

#87 Concerned Citizen on 08.03.22 at 9:30 pm

#72 rampant inflation on 08.03.22 at 7:32 pm
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who makes $422,900 per year – and scrambled out of dozens of investments last year shortly before the Fed finalized strict new limits on policymakers’ portfolios…

During an interview with Reuters broadcast live on Twitter spaces, Daly said: “I don’t feel the pain of inflation anymore. I see prices rising but I have enough… I sometimes balk at the price of things, but I don’t find myself in a space where I have to make tradeoffs because I have enough, and many Americans have enough.”

WOW… just WOW!!

*****

Yeah I was going to post this but you beat me to it.

These are the kinds of people in charge of monetary policy. Ask yourself what they care more about – their personal real estate empires and the stock market or double digit inflation that hits those dirty poor and middle class folks? This is reason #18394348 that I have no faith these people will raise rates meaningfully.

What’s that old saying – when people show you who they are, believe them…

#88 DON on 08.03.22 at 9:31 pm

#59 Reality Check on 08.03.22 at 7:03 pm
26 Dave
They sure aren’t dropping by 20 percent on Vancouver Island. Maybe it takes a while for the rate increases to hit? Or are the buyers just delisional?
——————-
I vote for delusional.

People come here for a summer vacation and see paradise.

Then they buy a 1.5 million bungalow and move here and see the real Victoria.

2 seasons – summer for 2 months than soggy overcast fall/spring for 10 months.

Prolific Homelessness and petty crime.

And don’t forget us smug, ultra woke, self centered locals.

And $140 each way to get off the island on BC Ferries.

I’m aiming for summers in Calgary and winters in Costa Rica or Mexico.

But come buy my Victoria home for 2 million and fund my retirement.

**********

Add on the number of local trades and businesses depending on new house builds on a monthly basis is VERY noticeable. The last time this happened the trades headed off the Island in search of work.

I vote for delusional and the power of ‘ignorance is bliss’ until reality bites.

#89 Dr V on 08.03.22 at 9:33 pm

Several posters are mentioning Victoria and the Island.
Here is that VIREB (exc Victoria) stats page. I just look at the monthly summaries for single family “units”.

http://www.vireb.com/index.php?page=20

Peak for sales, average price and median board market totals was March. July average and median prices were down 8.5% and 7.7% respectively from the peak.

Your mileage may vary.

#90 Doug r on 08.03.22 at 9:52 pm

Let’s PLEASE PLEASE get Victoria market down AT LEAST 25% – for the love of all that’s holy

#91 slick on 08.03.22 at 10:00 pm

aside from gold, my charts all point to a market drop.
banks, tech, energy,prefs, all at the top of downward trends. Lower highs, lower lows. cycle low before labour day.
I’ll ride it out, but may buy some xsp puts.
I;m finding covered call etfs very interesting

#92 45north on 08.03.22 at 10:27 pm

Finally, today, let’s contrast and compare this with the GTA.
Did I mention there’s no place to hide?

The real thing is the degree of shock. Shock of home owners with mortgages. Shock of real estate agents. People are shocked but they’re not saying. It’s early days.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQRIOKvR2WM

#93 Mad Money on 08.03.22 at 10:30 pm

Can’t wait for the next monthly Kelowna Real Estate Report release.

StatsCan just gave Kelowna the title back for highest crime rate in the country again.

#94 T-Rev on 08.03.22 at 10:58 pm

@ #12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.03.22 at 5:03 pm

Actually, Churchill’s quote was “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” Poetry weaponized!

https://youtu.be/pdRH5wzCQQw

#95 Philco on 08.03.22 at 11:07 pm

#93 Mad Money on 08.03.22 at 10:30 pm
Can’t wait for the next monthly Kelowna Real Estate Report release.

StatsCan just gave Kelowna the title back for highest crime rate in the country again.
—–
haha
Glad I bailed.
Powell River has a moat around it. Its like crime prevention. Any big major global event and Ill pull the plugs on the 2 ferries and eat the deer out back :-)

#96 DON on 08.03.22 at 11:19 pm

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62408868

‘If interest rates go up I’ll owe an extra £250 a month on my loans’
By Simon Read
Business reporter, BBC News

Must read the stories.

#97 DJT on 08.03.22 at 11:20 pm

Over 300 listing in my area of Niagara, 3 years ago there were on average 100.

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.04.22 at 12:10 am

I read some reports that the ware houses of many major stores in the States are overloaded.
Hence, lots of stuff discounted, but few takers.
End of inflation?
Should be interesting what the Fed will do next.

#99 SoggyShorts on 08.04.22 at 12:21 am

#32 The General on 08.03.22 at 5:43 pm
Unverified report: China halts exports of sand to Tiawan. No more chips for you, they’re made out of silica, silly rabbit.</i
****************
China claims Taiwan as part of the same country so "exports" aren't something they do there anyways ;-)

#100 Yabba Dabba Doo on 08.04.22 at 12:57 am

Real estate is only investable if the market is going up. If it’s going down you have a stinking albatross around your neck, that is unless your only concern is having a roof over your head, then it doesn’t matter what the price fluctuation indicates. In fact you want a stable mill rate overall to keep your property taxes stable.

And wow, was real estate ever a bad investment vis a vis owning equities in the stated time frame. Ex – Tech the market has been very generous after the CB generated swoon. Those of us who went in while others bailed have once again “made out like bandits”. I put the final tranche in ‘balls in’. The free cash flow from dividends makes it all a “fish in a barrel” time for investors.

With money pouring out of RE, stocks being the only game in town for ex real estate investors, it’s clear sailing ahead in the second half IMHO.

#101 DON on 08.04.22 at 1:20 am

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.04.22 at 12:10 am
I read some reports that the ware houses of many major stores in the States are overloaded.
Hence, lots of stuff discounted, but few takers.
End of inflation?
Should be interesting what the Fed will do next.

*******
I had heard via the news that Best Buy, Walmart etc are discounting items that people are no longer buying. Basically discount prices on the toys or over stocked non essentials. Was in Best Buy the other day and there were no other customers for the 30 mintues I was there. The Costco parking lot was full…better to buy the essentials in bulk?

Also, just read a news report on rescinded job offers on the rise especially in the tech sector.

#102 DON on 08.04.22 at 1:36 am

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/economy/consumer-credit-borrowing-surge/index.html

#103 Diamond Dog on 08.04.22 at 3:22 am

Speaking of Frankenumbers, the U.S. Fed claimed “neutral”, defined as neither growth or recession, the neutral Fed rate is somewhere between 2.5 and 2.75%. The Fed repeated this number over and over in the last month and a half.

Today’s Fed rate is 2.25 to 2.5%. Powell twice said in raising the Fed rate .75% that “we are at neutral now”. The problem with this is Larry Summers recently stated that neutral is closer to 4.5 to 5%. This would mean that to induce a recession to kill demand and crush inflation, the Fed would have to raise rates higher than 4.5% at a minimum:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6reu7qppUw

Someone is wrong here. Either the Fed is lost in space with neutral at 2.5 to 2.75%, or Larry Summers is wrong. The problem is, Summers has cred and the Fed does not.

#104 Wrk.dover on 08.04.22 at 6:39 am

#66 Cici on 08.03.22 at 7:15 pm
Where can we find the actual sales stats for Quebec City?

As far as I can tell, there haven’t been any price drops here and the local newspaper says if any are to occur, it won’t be for at least two years.
_______________________________

Distinct society = distinct market?

North Shore lapin patch market, same forecast?

#105 Boit Royholtz on 08.04.22 at 8:33 am

Am I the only one who hears duelling banjoes whenever Kelowna is mentioned. They got whitewater there?

#106 rampant inflation on 08.04.22 at 8:35 am

#103 Diamond Dog on 08.04.22 at 3:22 am

Someone is wrong here. Either the Fed is lost in space with neutral at 2.5 to 2.75%, or Larry Summers is wrong. The problem is, Summers has cred and the Fed does not.
_______________________________________

the Fed is lying. the FED has no credibility.
Summers is lying. Larry Summers has no credibility.

they can all be replaced by Muppets and the 2 year treasury rate for Fed Funds.

save money for the taxpayer. stop the insider trading by the fed. better for the economy.

#107 rampant inflation on 08.04.22 at 8:38 am

#87 Concerned Citizen on 08.03.22 at 9:30 pm

What’s that old saying – when people show you who they are, believe them…
__________________________________

central banks are run by criminals. if the average citizen behaved the way Federal Reserve members did, they would wind up in JAIL for INSIDER TRADING.

it’s REPREHENSIBLE.

same goes for members of Congress and the Senate.

i’m sure it’s no different in Canada, UK, Europe etc..

#108 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.04.22 at 8:38 am

@#94 T-Rev
Yep.!
Churchill had so many great quotes.
Unlike his predecessor Neville Chamberlain the appeasement Prime Minister.
Waving Herr Hitler’s signed guarantee of “Peace in our time” ….just before Hitler invaded Poland.

Seems we have our version of the Appeasement PM these days….

++++
@#101 DON

It will be very interesting to see when the general population realizes ….we are sliding in to a economic slump.
A deep, prolonged, slump.
Oct.? Dec?
Next March when the feds roll out the Budget with some more ridiculously expensive, completely useless, politically correct, expenditures to deepen the economically suicidal debt?
If we change the name of the country can we ignore Canada’s Debt?
Hold on to your hat.

#109 IHCTD9 on 08.04.22 at 8:56 am

#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.04.22 at 12:10 am
I read some reports that the ware houses of many major stores in the States are overloaded.
Hence, lots of stuff discounted, but few takers.
End of inflation?
___

I can believe it. I’ve put off a few projects due to cost of construction materials for 2 years now. Pretty much any major spending I might have planned would have been put on the backburner due to cost increases. No emergencies cropped up, everything else can wait.

#110 Philco on 08.04.22 at 9:00 am

#100 Yabba Dabba Doo on 08.04.22 at 12:57 am
——-
Nothing wrong with RE….it’s a long game and ya buy value not stupid. Lots peeps make money from the push.
Emergency low rates to keep the economy going for years peeps borrowed themselves to death. Covid put the top in and Bubble TV was dandy.
It was interesting to watch the lemmings.

Know your markets or get a chunk taken outa your hide.

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.04.22 at 9:34 am

@#103 Diamond Dog
“Someone is wrong here. Either the Fed is lost in space with neutral at 2.5 to 2.75%, or Larry Summers is wrong. The problem is, Summers has cred and the Fed does not.”
+++
An interesting article in THE Economist a few weeks back saying the same thing.
They noted that the formulas that the Central Banks rely on to calculate interest rates are too slow and don’t take into account intangibles like human emotion.
They noted if only the ridgid economic mathematical formulas are used…we should have bank rates around 8% to stop inflation OR they should have been raising rates at 0.25% hikes quarterly back in mid 2021 when things were obviously frothy.
As independent as the CB’s say they are….they still answer to their political overlords.

We have a long way to go before they get the inflation Kraken slain.

#112 RichardTO on 08.04.22 at 9:38 am

“This term describes a fact which is not quite a statistic and at the same time is true but inaccurate. ”

Whew, I thought you were going to go on a rant against CPI for a moment there…

#113 T-Rev on 08.04.22 at 9:45 am

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/home-sales-down-1.6540474

Prices have “slowly been decreasing at about 2% a month”

You can’t make this stuff up. Just “gradual” decreases of 2% per month. No biggie.

#114 Senator Bluto on 08.04.22 at 10:44 am

Interesting how the SCOTUS Roe v. Wade decision has forced individual states to now make choices.

Who would have thought that striking down Roe v. Wade would end up expanding states rights to make choices?

Looks like the system works, just not in the way any of the pundits predicted.

Could it be that the Founders understood people better than today’s bought and paid for pundits??? Naaahhh….

#115 Old Boot on 08.04.22 at 11:00 am

#81 jess on 08.03.22 at 8:20 pm

demon cures?

…”Provincial government funding to a Saskatoon Christian school must be frozen in light of a series of abuse allegations, says the leader of the NDP Opposition.”I’m heartbroken to think this was the experience that shaped these young lives,” Carla Beck said Wednesday.

Some former students of Saskatoon’s Christian Centre Academy, now called Legacy Christian Academy, are going even further. They are demanding the school be permanently closed.

“I think it should be shut down — 100 per cent,” said former student Jillian Kudryk.

In a CBC News story published Tuesday, nearly a dozen former students spoke publicly for the first time, sharing stories of abuse that included spankings with large, wooden paddles that left them bruised and limping. Others spoke of solitary confinement, coercion and traumatizing rituals such as exorcisms to “cure” students thought to be possessed by demons.
Former students of the Christian Centre Academy, now called Legacy Christian Academy, say all government subsidies and tax breaks for the school and adjacent Mile Two Church must be halted.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/freeze-funding-for-sask-christian-school-facing-sickening-abuse-allegations-opposition-students-1.6540118

************

Contrast this story with new religion that claims we can be born with the wrong gender souls (which even a 2 year old can recognize) and that we must cast out the demon gender via radical mastectomies, orchiectomies, hysterectomies and toxic chemotherapy.

Makes Christianity look rather sane.

#116 Dharma Bum on 08.04.22 at 11:03 am

Crowdiefartguy

Grocery baggers at Safeway make more than realtors.
——————————————————————————————————-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpxzXwSCunI

https://www.facebook.com/thehowardsternshow/videos/mark-the-bagger-has-his-own-place-and-is-looking-for-a-woman-hollyweird-squares/311519803075888/

#117 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.04.22 at 11:07 am

#101 DON on 08.04.22 at 1:20 am
#98 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.04.22 at 12:10 am
I read some reports that the ware houses of many major stores in the States are overloaded.
Hence, lots of stuff discounted, but few takers.
End of inflation?
Should be interesting what the Fed will do next.

*******
I had heard via the news that Best Buy, Walmart etc are discounting items that people are no longer buying. Basically discount prices on the toys or over stocked non essentials. Was in Best Buy the other day and there were no other customers for the 30 mintues I was there. The Costco parking lot was full…better to buy the essentials in bulk?
————————-
That’s what’s “good” about recessions and inflation.
It purges the economy of the “crap” and makes the average consumer focus on the essentials that they need rather than on non essentials that they want.
It’s healthy, and also weeds out un-competitive companies.

#118 Tony on 08.04.22 at 11:10 am

Re: #91 slick on 08.03.22 at 10:00 pm

Wait until August 24th to buy puts if you’re thinking of buying them sooner.

#119 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.04.22 at 11:15 am

114 Senator Bluto on 08.04.22 at 10:44 am
Interesting how the SCOTUS Roe v. Wade decision has forced individual states to now make choices.

Who would have thought that striking down Roe v. Wade would end up expanding states rights to make choices?

Looks like the system works, just not in the way any of the pundits predicted.

Could it be that the Founders understood people better than today’s bought and paid for pundits??? Naaahhh….
————————-
Yep,
Tribalism as it’s best.
You no longer live in the United States.
But in one of the 50 States of America.
Will borders be next?

#120 Dr V on 08.04.22 at 11:21 am

111 Fartz

“They noted that the formulas that the Central Banks rely on to calculate interest rates are too slow and don’t take into account intangibles like human emotion.”
——————————————————-

Yes, and I agree they shoulda been inching those rates
up for the last year or so. Even if just to show people it could happen.

I like wolfstreet’s comment from the other day about the markets “not getting the message” from the recent fed hikes. The feds want the slowdown without having to go nuts with the rates. That way they dont get blamed and still keep their jobs.

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.04.22 at 11:38 am

Walmart cutting office jobs…..

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/walmart-cuts-200-corporate-jobs-as-weak-demand-bloated-inventory-weigh-122080400242_1.html

It’s a shame we couldn’t apply the “bloated inventory” model to govt employees.

How many City Road work crews do we need leaning on shovels in rush hour traffic?
I counted 10 “shovel leaners” the other day as I drove past a Back Hoe digging a 3ft deep trench as one guy with a white hard hat watched and 10 other guys stood around supporting their “goon spoons”.

#122 Sail Away on 08.04.22 at 11:42 am

#114 Senator Bluto on 08.04.22 at 10:44 am

Interesting how the SCOTUS Roe v. Wade decision has forced individual states to now make choices.

Who would have thought that striking down Roe v. Wade would end up expanding states rights to make choices?

Looks like the system works, just not in the way any of the pundits predicted.

Could it be that the Founders understood people better than today’s bought and paid for pundits??? Naaahhh….

———

Yep, federal acceptance of R v W was always constitutionally flawed. SCOTUS’s job is to maintain constitutionality, not bend to the winds of sentiment du jour. Much better now.

#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.04.22 at 11:55 am

#120 Dr V on 08.04.22 at 11:21 am
111 Fartz

“They noted that the formulas that the Central Banks rely on to calculate interest rates are too slow and don’t take into account intangibles like human emotion.”
——————————————————-

Yes, and I agree they shoulda been inching those rates
up for the last year or so. Even if just to show people it could happen.

I like wolfstreet’s comment from the other day about the markets “not getting the message” from the recent fed hikes. The feds want the slowdown without having to go nuts with the rates. That way they dont get blamed and still keep their jobs.
—————————
Haha,
FURZ finally agrees that human emotions play a major role in financial decision making.
Because The Economist says so.
And all, while Behavioural Economics is taking over classic Economics.
Talking about not seeing the trees for the forest.

#124 baloney Sandwitch on 08.04.22 at 12:01 pm

You buy at point of maximum pessimism. When you see “power of sale” adverts everywhere – it’s then when you pounce.

#125 VanIslander on 08.04.22 at 12:39 pm

Doing my Part on 08.03.22 at 5:56 pm
Victoria on Vancouver Island, Real Estate update from a long term multi-property owner.
-Many new listings coming to market
-Few sales
-Many substantial price reductions in the neighbourhood or 5% plus, still not selling.
It is not different this time, Victoria is following the other highly inflated markets, down, down, down.
I predict a lot more new listings and price reductions after the summer, when everyone got the lockdown out of their system and economic reality starts to sink in.
Be patient, prices are sticky on the way down.

—————————————————

No mention on Victoria media of average prices down over 11%. When it went up they would gush over it with a twinkle in their eye. Now not a peep as they are scared sh*tless of ticking off their prime advertisers in the industry.

Many daily price cuts of 5 to 10% still and homes pulled off market and relisted. Panicky social media posts claiming the fall will pick up big, but don’t want to hear about $700 per month mortgage hikes upon renewals. How the young will soon learn a very painful lesson.

#126 Steven Rowlandson on 08.04.22 at 12:39 pm

“All the 200k construction workers will be begging for work next year. ”

Who are these construction workers #15? I’ve never heard of any one on a construction site making that much a year that actually did real work. Are you talking about site supervisors and foremen? I’m not sure they would make that kind of money either.

#127 Damifino on 08.04.22 at 12:53 pm

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz

I counted 10 “shovel leaners” the other day as I drove past a Back Hoe digging a 3ft deep trench as one guy with a white hard hat watched and 10 other guys stood around supporting their “goon spoons”.
———————————

Goon spoons! That really cracked me up!

I have seen this too. But on the other hand, I’ve seen road crews working outside in absolutely deplorable weather conditions and wicked temperatures.

I drive past them in my air-conditioned (or heated) SUV thanking my lucky stars the last two thirds of my working career were spent comfortably away from the elements.

You would know that in Vancouver there’s four great weather months per year, two marginal ones, and six “when’s-this-gonna-be-over” ones. Maybe go check out those poor suckers working on the Broadway Skytrain Extension in the freezing rain, say, next December.

#128 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.04.22 at 1:28 pm

@#123 Ponzies Paradigm
“Haha,
FURZ finally agrees that human emotions play a major role in financial decision making.”
+++
A person of Germanic heritage pontificating about human emotions…
What’s next?
Accountants moonlighting as circus clowns for cash?

#129 DON on 08.04.22 at 1:45 pm

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 08.04.22 at 11:38 am
Walmart cutting office jobs…..

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/walmart-cuts-200-corporate-jobs-as-weak-demand-bloated-inventory-weigh-122080400242_1.html

It’s a shame we couldn’t apply the “bloated inventory” model to govt employees.

How many City Road work crews do we need leaning on shovels in rush hour traffic?
I counted 10 “shovel leaners” the other day as I drove past a Back Hoe digging a 3ft deep trench as one guy with a white hard hat watched and 10 other guys stood around supporting their “goon spoons”.

*********
Browsing the news many more are laying off including Amazon and other tech companies. Then there are the world wide strikes for cost of living.

The Ball is just starting to roll down hill.

#130 Squire on 08.04.22 at 2:21 pm

#92 45north on 08.03.22 at 10:27 pm
Finally, today, let’s contrast and compare this with the GTA.
Did I mention there’s no place to hide?

The real thing is the degree of shock. Shock of home owners with mortgages. Shock of real estate agents. People are shocked but they’re not saying. It’s early days.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQRIOKvR2WM
—————————

It’s not the amount of the interest rate. It’s the change that has taken place since February 2022 and it’s not over.

#131 jess on 08.04.22 at 2:26 pm

Published Wednesday, the joint investigation by Finance Uncovered and the BBC detailed the operations of five “formation agencies” that specialize in creating shell companies for Russian clients and found a way to skirt around British corporate transparency laws. Some of these agencies were previously revealed by congressional investigations in the U.S. into Russian money-laundering activities.

The loophole allowed them to establish masses of anonymous organizations, known as English Limited Partnerships (ELPs)—an obscure kind of company that is not required to identify its real owners to authorities.

exploited UK secrecy loophole
investigation takes you deeper inside the corporate secrecy industry than ever before.
https://www.financeuncovered.org/investigations/english-limited-partnerships-formations-agencies

By James Oliver, Nassos Stylianou, Will Dahlgreen, Steve Swann
BBC News Data Journalism Team and BBC Panorama

3 August 2022
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-62410715.amp

” U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network warned in 2017 of “money laundering risks in the real-estate sector” and the use of shell companies in particular decreasing transparency. https://www.fincen.gov/resources/advisories/fincen-advisory-fin-2017-a003

Trump inauguration took money from shell companies tied to foreigners
This article is more than 3 years old

Creators of firms that donated revealed by Guardian as Indian financier, lobbyist with links to Taiwan and Israeli real estate developer
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/08/trump-inauguration-money-shell-companies-revealed

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/trumps-businesses-are-full-of-dirty-russian-money-the-scandal-is-thats-legal/2019/03/29/11b812da-5171-11e9-88a1-ed346f0ec94f_story.html

art industry side stepping

https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2020-07-29%20PSI%20Staff%20Report%20-%20The%20Art%20Industry%20and%20U.S.%20Policies%20that%20Undermine%20Sanctions.pdf
===============
ELPs as “alternative solutions.”

…”The proxies included a 71-year-old Swiss ceramic artist and a Romanian couple living in London. Often, they had no idea about the shell company’s business activities, investigators said.

The investigation also found that most of the shell companies were registered at just 21 addresses in England and Wales, with the registered addresses found to actually be an eclectic assortment of locations including a barber’s shop, an office above a Mexican restaurant and a rural farm cottage.

One of the formation agencies, LAS, sent a Russian-language newsletter to clients after the laws came into effect promising that “there is always a way out” and promoting ELPs as “alternative solutions.”

#132 jess on 08.04.22 at 2:53 pm

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/02/1115204443

/georgia-fetus-pregnant-dependent-taxes
Pregnant? Georgia says that fetus counts as a dependent on your taxes

August 2, 20223:40 PM ET

In Georgia a dependant on tax form
fetal personhood law” is the idea that a fetus is a person with full constitutional rights from the moment of fertilization.

Stacey Abrams, tweeted: “So what happens when you claim your fetus as a dependent and then miscarry later in the pregnancy, you get investigated both for tax fraud and an illegal abortion?

#133 chalkie on 08.05.22 at 7:06 pm

Caught in the Act, Lies and more real estate lies. It’s in their best interest to fool buyers to believing that prices are slightly dropping, when in fact they are crashing and burning, give it up and smell the coffee, I know there is a sucker born every second, but I wonder how many fibbers are born at this same time period. Not enough buyers to snatch up your so-called home bargains, “don’t hold your breath, the market is becoming more flooded by the day”. Keep Your money folks, the deals have not even started, down, down the prices go, througt the summer and into the snow.